DJIA

Transports. Asleep.

Utes. I keep trying to bottom fish them here and it’s dicey.

SPX

Naz. Filled the mid August gap Friday morning.

IWM. My rule of thumb is can I see the break of the thick line from across the room. Next week will be the test.

MDY. Putting this one in because wow, if this is broadening out and away from the mega caps, it’s been a bad two weeks. Same place it was in June.

QQQ. Did not fill the gap on Friday.

QQQJ. Might be the first time since QQQ topped in June that this has made a lower high. No lower low yet.

IGV

XLI. Down on the month.

SOX. Does that uptrend line hold?

Bank Index. Hanging on.

XLE.

OIH

XME

URA

LIT

ITB. Not getting smacked around with bonds. For now. In fact were green on Friday.

IYR

XLP

XLV. Big test this coming week.

XBI. Bulls better hope it doesn’t gap under 160 leaving the last two weeks as an island.

XLB. Just can’t get going.

MOO. Now that everyone likes the Ags. Similar to XLB (above).

GLD

PALL. Interesting since I did not see anyone chattering about this.

VGK

KWEB

INDA

McClellan Summation Index. Been trending down for weeks.

DXY

Bondaleros. Yield on 10 yr. Been persistent. The DSI is 17.

Insiders

Citi Panic/Euphoria. Permanently euphoric

Aside from the move in healthcare the week belonged to commodities which means (again, ex healthcare) most charts are still under their old highs. I am still waiting for XLB to make a move and note the two energy charts (XLE and OIH) have closed at the LOD for three straight days now.

DJIA

Transports.

Utes. Are they giving me another chance here as they did in June?

SPX

Naz

IWM

QQQ

QQQJ. Fake out?

SOX

Bank Index. They finally came for the banks this week. But still no lower low.

IGV. Maybe not eating the world, maybe just eating the semis?

XLI. Industrials teetering.

XLE.

OIH

MOO. I brought it back now that everyone loves the ag stocks.

XLP. Staples hang in there.

XLV. Just gotta hope they don’t gap down under 170

XBI

XLB

ITB. Homies (REITs too) thus far ignoring rates.

IYR

URA

LIT

GLD. The DSI is 82.

PALL. Says what am I, chopped liver?

XME

VGK

KWEB

INDA

DXY

McClellan Summation Index. Heading down. Must be all that broadening out.

Bondaleros. Yield on 10 yr. Don’t you just wish it would have a big whoosh already. Or wait, let’s use the new phrase of the week: a clearing event! Because then all the ‘rate of change’ people would shut up.

Insiders.

Citi Panic/Euphoria

DJIA

Transports. Charles Dow is curious why no one mentions the Dow Theory anymore.

Utes. Is that a rally? Why yes, it is!

SPX

Naz

IWM

QQQ

QQQJ

SOX

Bank Index.

IGV

XLI

XLE. And there ya go, a tiny little breakout on Friday. I should look back and see if energy rallies on Fridays. You know, as a hedge for the weekend.

OIH.

XME. Metals did great until everyone got breathless over them midweek.

XLB. I keep waiting for the breakout. It never seems to arrive.

XLP. Heard a strategist on FinTV the other day. Likes every group except the staples. Yes, he singled them out. I went through some staples stocks the other day and discovered many of them yield more than the Utes. (I do not buy stocks for divvies, but it was interesting)

XLV

XBI

URA

LIT

ITB. Holding up relatively well considering yields.

IYR. Channel Check.

GLD.

PALL

VGK

KWEB. Just as everyone fell in love with Chinese tech stocks again, it died. Can it hold here?

INDA

McClellan Summation Index. For a market with all the ‘broadening out’ claims, this is sure lethargic. But it is inching upward. For now.

Bondaleros. Yield on the 10 yr. New lines this week.

DXY. Not caring about rates. For now.

Insiders.

Citi Panic/Euphoria

I’m not sure I have any brilliant observations except to note I think there were only two charts that made new highs: The Junior QQQs (QQQJ) and VGK, the European Market ETF. Everything else just lifted off the lows.

DJIA

Transports. Dow Theory non-confirmation that everyone seems to have forgotten about now that we’ve rallied.

Utes. Finally getting oversold after ten straight red days.

SPX. Watching that spike high from Wednesday.

Naz.

IWM

QQQ

QQQJ. The Juniors are outperforming. But you have to squint to see it.

SOX

Bank Index. Everyone quoting the XLF being up for ten straight weeks but take out the non-banks and not so much. What they ought to say is insurance has been hot.

XLI

IGV.

XLE

OIH. Critical spot. If it turns down from here will look like h/s top. If it keeps going, it improves. Always best if OIH acts better than XLE which has not been the case in this last leg up (something I have noted several times)

XME. Now that everyone loves the metals.

ITB

IYR. You see that peak two weeks ago? That was IYR love.

XLP

XLV

XBI

XLB. I still like this even though it has gone nowhere.

URA. Like the metals, finally out of the slumber.

LIT. Finally LIT a fire under it.

GLD. Can it get to the blue line?

PALL.

VGK. Sleepy Europe.

KWEB

INDA. Finally rallied. How long have I waited for this? But can it get through the line?

McClellan Summation Index. Turned back up but lagging big time.

DXY.

Bondaleros. Yield on 10 yr. Needs to get back under 4.60% to get back in the range.

Insiders. Ticking back up.

Citi Panic/Euphoria. Never saw an ounce of panic.

And since yesterday’s Jobs report was worse than expected I thought I would leave you with this cartoon. I believe it was in some small newspaper (can’t recall which one) back in 1988, during the post-Crash environment.

Interest rates moved so today we look at the 3 yr chart. But even with the move in rates, the Utes haven’t gone down, the Homies haven’t gone down, and the REITs haven’t gone down. Don’t miss that the Insiders are back to selling again.

DJIA

Transports. Shrugging at oil. For now.

Utes. Shrugging at bonds. For now.

SPX.

Naz

IWM. 290 is support but there is really support all the way down.

QQQ. Don’t breathe on them.

QQQJ. Better than the seniors but not much.

SOX. Remember all those folks who said as long as the SOX is doing better than the S&P it’s bullish? They are still bullish. Thus next time you hear such nonsense, ignore it.

Bank Index.

IGV

XLI. Hanging tough. For now.

XLE

OIH. Laggard. For now.

XME. Rallied enough to save it. For now.

XLV. And still PFE can’t get off the mat!

XLP

ITB.

IYR. I can’t decide if banks are more loved than REITs now. Maybe it’s a tie.

GLD. 360-380. Which way does it break?

PALL

URA

LIT

XBI.

XLB. Now here’s an interesting chart.

VGK

KWEB.

INDA.

McClellan Summation Index. For all the broadening out chatter, why is this heading down?

Bondaleros. Yield on the 10 yr. Will this breakout be like the breakout over the green line? DSI is 17.

DXY. Did not make a higher high. For now.

Insiders. Shot up again.

Citi Panic/Euphoria. No panic here.

The market has been sloppy for two months now. It doesn’t look to me like that is going to change.

Dow.

Transports. Nice rally this week but now at resistance.

Utes. Been a fan but have now moved to sidelines.

SPX. Lower high but no lower low yet.

Naz. Lower highs. Yes, plural because there are two of them. Now lower low yet.

IWM. Has held up well but has also gone nowhere. Got over 300 and could do no more.

SOX. The one you’ve been waiting for! Seems to me that 12k is important. If it can’t get over it then no bueno.

Bank Index. Been the champ but Citi has been terrible and it was the first to bottom in May.

QQQ. Same as Nasdaq so 700 is the level of short term resistance. At least Friday’s volume picked up to 50k.

QQQJ. Call it an equal high not a lower high.

IGV

XLI. Has held up okay but if it gaps under 175 it will leave an island behind. CAT is the big deal here so it’s the one to watch. If it gaps down we’ll have a CAT in the hat.

XLE. Been great but OIH is lagging on this rally.

OIH. Can barely get off the mat.

XME. Broke support. Can it recapture 100?

LIT. More like in the dark. Amirite?

URA. Can it get back over 40 in an oversold rally?

ITB. 95-96 seems important.

IYR. Been awesome. Don’t love the reversal on Friday though.

XLB.

XLP. Not terrible, just that it’s a trudge.

XLV. First lower high.

XBI. Been a champ.

MOO. Sure it’s good that it crossed the downtrend line but more impressive is the recapturing of the blue line so readily.

VGK

KWEB. Everyone loves it now.

INDA

Nikkei. New one just because the chatter is picking up after Friday’s whack. Would a rally give us the RS of a h/s top?

GLD

McClellan Summation Index. Flat. But also a lower high.

DXY.

Bondaleros. Yield on the 10 yr. Should have fallen more on those inflation prints this week. So I’ll be on the lookout for being wrong (Been in camp that rates don’t go up much more).

Insiders. That spike in selling showed up 3 weeks ago. No one cared. Now that tech has come down, FinTV is chattering about it. I guess price does change sentiment.

Citi Panic/Euphoria. No panic here.

To my American readers, Happy Fourth of July!

DJIA

Transports. If oil is so awful, why are the Transports -5% in a week?

Utes. Still can’t seem to cross that line. My patience is wearing thin.

SPX. If you bought Monday’s gap up you are still underwater.

Naz

IWM

QQQ. The last month has brought an awful lot of volatility for the first time since November.

QQQJ. For the first time since mid April, has the same pattern as the Seniors.

SOX. Back under 14k and this will look like a failure. All eyes on the potato stock (MU) this week.

Bank Index. Too much love late in the week. Watching 175 now.

IGV. Remember the love for software on that rally? Yeah, neither does anyone else. See last week’s missive for the chart of where I think we are in the Sentiment Cycle here.

XLI. We got the breakout. Now it needs to stay over 175 (same number as the Bank Index….)

XLE. A chart only a mother could love.

OIH. Breaking the blue line is overall negative but the short term black ones say ‘oversold here’.

WTI. Because I draw funky lines.

XLV. I guess we’re back to just saying no to drugs.

XLP

XRT. Just pointing out it is the same price it was in September.

XBI.

XME. 110-112 is a big level.

XLB

ITB

IYR. Same lines as last week.

URA

PALL

GLD. Rallied right to resistance. Then filled the gap. Same thing the S&P did on Monday and Wednesday. Of course one is in an uptrend (SPX) and one in a downtrend (GLD)

TUNGF.

LIT

MOO. More like Cow poop.

VGK

KWEB. Bu hao.

INDA. Doing better than China but still can’t cross the downtrend line.

McClellan Summation Index. Milling around, can’t go up, can’t go down. Will be interesting to see what it does into the RUT rebalancing.

DXY. Yeah, we all love that base. Even the non-chart folks can see it. Prediction: if it gets to 102 the love will be too much.

Bondaleros. Yield on 10 yr.

Insiders. Not buying, not selling. With the exception of that spike in early Feb, this is quite a stretch to be so in balance.

Citi Panic/Euphoria. Came off the boil by a fraciton.

Dow

Transports. It’s not all CAR this time but it is stretched up here.

Utes. I keep waiting, like the skeleton tapping his fingers, for them to cross the downtrend line.

SPX

Naz

IWM. New high but watching that channel.

QQQ. Big level here for the big guys.

QQQJ. Juniors did no play yesterday.

SOX

Bank Index. They were so focused on Space X they missed this. And this is not GS and MS. This is old fashioned banks (mostly)

IGV. Still looks like Aversion to me.

XLI. Can it break out?

XLV

XLP

XBI

XLB. Never made a lower low. Can it make a higher high?

ITB. Has been impressive in the face of rates. But back under 96 and not so much.

IYR. Everyone discovered the REITs this week. Makes me nervous cuz same thing happened in February just before they went plop.

PEJ. Guess the top of the K is still spending.

XLE

OIH

XME

GLD. Nice bounce but blue line is resistance, and a round number.

PALL. Those blue lines are resistance.

LIT. Back to the neckline.

URA

TUNGF

MOO

VGK. Almost the same chart as the XLI

KWEB. Bu hao. But can it rally back to resistance?

INDA. Interesting.

McClellan Summation Index. Considering breadth held up well this week, this is not much of a turn up.

DXY. Too many dollar bulls now.

Bondaleros. Yield on the 10 yr.

Insiders. Finally a minor tick up. Very minor.

Citi Panic/Euphoria. There was no panic this past week, just a little bearishness crept in. Then we rallied.

As I look at the charts it also strikes me that it was actually an old fashioned week in the market. Commodities of all kinds that got sold yesterday: metals, energy, ags, uranium, lithium, and yes semiconductors. And safety stocks held up: staples, drugs, utes. That narrative that the Mag 7 are the safety trade just went out the window. Guess that’s what happens when you stop buying your own stock and start selling it (to others).

DJIA. Held up the best.

Transports. Up on the day.

Utes. Shrugged at the bond move. but still can’t cross that downtrend line.

SPX. If 7300 holds will everyone see the h/s top?

Naz.

IWM. Did not (yet) revisit the mid May low.

QQQ. Again, if 695 holds, will everyone see the h/s top?

QQQJ. Still far above the mid May low.

SOX. Forget watching the S&P futures Sunday night, my guess is all eyes will be on the Kospi.

Bank Index. Held up.

XLI. Held up but still lower highs.

IGV

XLE

OIH. Breaking the NL wouldn’t be terribly clean though with all that support all the way down.

XME. I really thought 125 would hold but it blew through there like a hot knife through butter.

GLD

URA

LIT

TUNGF

XLB

ITB. Despite the move in rates, no selling this past week. Maybe it was the BRK deal?

IYR. REITs strong while rates rise. Did you have that on your Bingo card?

MOO

XLV. Ran smack into resistance.

XLP

XRT. Got saved a few weeks ago. No selling yesterday. But that pattern is still there.

XBI

VGK

INDA

KWEB

McClellan Summation Index. Peaked in late April.

Bondaleros. Yield on the 10 year. I was surprised it didn’t move more.

DXY. That is one giant base. Well if it ever breaks out it will be. I’ve been waiting for 8 months now and it smacks me down every time.

Insiders.

Citi Panic/Euphoria. Honey, Barron’s shrunk the chart.

Dow.

Transports. Gap and sit.

Utes. I don’t love how much they gave up but still think they will hold on this trip down.

SPX. Keep hearing 9 weeks of up and then I see that the average stock peaked over a month ago.

Naz. Let’s see if the upper line matters.

IWM. Gapped and sat.

QQQ.

QQQJ. The Juniors are cooking.

SOX. Gapped and sat. Did they finally run in all the shorts?

Bank Index. Where’s the love that was so prevalent in January?

IGV. My target has been 97-100 so this push over 100 is a surprise to me.

XLI. Still lower highs.

XLE. Last fall no one loved energy. Now everyone says they want to buy the dip.

OIH.

XME. Back to the scene of the crime.

URA

PALL. Hangs in there.

TUNGF.

GLD. Can it cross the upper line?

ITB

IYR. Rates finally fall and so does this?

XLV

XLP

XBI.

XRT

LIT

VGK.

KWEB.

INDA

McClellan Summation Index. Turned up. Barely. Tells us majority of stocks peaked late April.

Bondaleros. Yield on 10 yr.

DXY. Home on the range.

Insiders. Minor little uptick. Very minor.

Citi Panic/Euphoria. It was last this high in early 2021. It got up over 2 in that 2020-2021 blow off.

For the nerds out there, the charts are starting to look different because they are one year charts and the Tariff Tantrum lows are dropping off the left side of the chart.

Enjoy the long weekend!

Dow. Needs follow through cuz that close was not great.

Transports.

Utes. No one cares about them anymore.

SPX. Lower high.

Naz. Lower high.

IWM. Lower high.

QQQ. Lower high.

QQQJ. Juniors outperforming the Seniors (QQQ). So yeah, speculation abounds.

IGV. Still following the Sentiment Cycle chart. Are we into the ‘Anxiety’ zone now?

SOX. You need to really zoom in to see that higher high. The thick pencil says…..

Bank Index

XLI

XLB. Bounced off the line but that’s the best I can say right now.

XLE

OIH

XME

XLP. That channel is almost out of a textbook. I think the CMTs have another name for it. LOL.

XLV

XBI

ITB. Fake break?

IYR. Considering the move in rates this has held up well.

XME

GLD. Hanging by a thread. I still think there is a chance it does that same action it did last year (giant sideways for months)

PALL. Is the h/s gonna break?

TUNGF. Disappointing.

URA. Pretty weak bounce off that line.

XRT. Big bounce off the line.

MOO. Not so great grains.

LIT

KWEB. Ooof.

INDA. What’s interesting is that —at least for now—it is not breaking like KWEB.

VGK. Big spot.

McClellan Summation Index. Biggest surprise to me: hasn’t turned up.