奇拿的股票筆記

Kira Trader Daily Report — 2026-09-02

Kira | StockNote — Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:05:57 GMT

Release date: 2026-09-02 | Author: KiraTrader

Part 1: Headline Summary

Yen’s sharp rise triggers intervention speculation; Pan Gongsheng says China has no intention of letting the yuan depreciate.

The Japanese yen surged against the U.S. dollar during overnight trading, triggering intervention speculation. Trump said the military strike on Iran would not last too long. The New York Fed president said the inflation trend is slowly declining. Broadcom expects AI chip revenue to surge over the next two years. Pan Gongsheng said China has no intention of gaining a trade competitive advantage through yuan depreciation. China will deepen the special rectification of “ghost takeout”.

International News

The yen surged sharply against the dollar during overnight trading, and traders are highly vigilant over whether the authorities will take further action to support the yen. Bank of Japan hawkish board member Hajime Takata signaled accelerating tightening, not ruling out the possibility of a significant rate hike.
Trump said that the military strike on Iran will not last too long, and the United States still controls the Strait of Hormuz.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey shows that over the past two months economic activity expanded modestly, overall employment increased slightly, and price increases accelerated moderately in most districts.
ADP report shows that U.S. private-sector employment continued to grow in August, but the magnitude hit a new low since the beginning of the year.
New York Fed President said that as the impact of tariffs gradually fades, the inflation trend is slowly moving downward. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent predicted that the surge in corporate capital spending in the AI field will ultimately bring an extremely strong inflation-suppressing effect.
Bessent said that the U.S. Treasury’s repurchase of long-term bonds can free up banks’ balance sheet space, allowing them to buy more liquid bonds.
Trump administration considers further tariffs on imported semiconductors, companies producing in the U.S. may obtain exemptions.
The Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged for the seventh consecutive meeting, but stressed that the trade war with the United States is intensifying inflation risks.
Due to concerns over escalating global geopolitical turmoil, the Dutch central bank transferred approximately 12 billion dollars’ worth of gold reserves from the United States and Canada to London.
Chevron and other companies reached a series of agreements aimed at increasing Venezuela’s crude oil production. The U.S. Secretary of Energy said that China has no right to demand Venezuela repay debts with new oil revenue.
Two OPEC+ representatives revealed that Saudi Arabia and other core OPEC+ members may keep next month’s crude oil production quota unchanged at this weekend’s meeting.
Semiconductor giant Broadcom’s revenue outlook for this fiscal quarter missed analysts’ expectations, but after the company projected that AI chip sales would grow significantly over the next two years, the stock price stabilized in after-hours trading.
Meta releases its most powerful AI model to date, Muse Spark 1.3, claiming it further narrows the gap with competitors and outperforms any Chinese model currently on the market.
US Secretary of State Rubio played down the CIA director’s surprise visit to Moscow last month, saying the trip was mainly to maintain communication channels between the US and Russia.
Ukrainian President Zelensky threatened to send large numbers of drones into Russian airspace, warning airlines to avoid Russian airspace.
Due to drought caused by the El Niño phenomenon, Indonesia’s largest nickel industrial park may reduce production by as much as 40%.

Greater China News

China says it will focus on rectifying the chaos of “involution-style” competition and deepen the special rectification of “ghost takeout” in the second half of the year.
Securities Times: China’s central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that China has no need and no intention to gain a trade competitive advantage through renminbi depreciation.
Goldman Sachs expects that Chinese policymakers will continue to lean toward promoting a gradual appreciation of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar at an annual pace of about 3% to 5%, and by the end of 2028 the renminbi exchange rate may rise to about 6.
Enflame Technology, one of China’s AI chip “Four Little Dragons”, received a warm reception for its STAR Market IPO, with the retail subscription multiple exceeding 4000 times.
China’s central bank net injected 50 billion yuan through open-market government bond trading in August, with an overall net injection of 150 billion yuan of medium- and long-term funds.
According to reports, Trump plans to prepare a high-specification welcome ceremony for Chinese President Xi Jinping, who will visit in three weeks, including holding a formal state banquet.
Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with the Egyptian president, saying that the Chinese side is willing to work with regional countries to safeguard the security of international waterways.
According to preliminary statistics from the Taiwan Stock Exchange, foreign investors’ net selling of Taiwan stocks was nearly 91.4 billion Taiwan dollars, the largest in over six weeks.

European and US Markets Overview

U.S. stock market: S&P 500 index rebounds after three consecutive declines, strong revenue outlook drives Dell’s stock price to surge.
S&P 500 Index rose 0.46%, reported at 7666.6 points
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.56%, reported at 53061.95 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.45% to 26217.83 points
Chinese concept stocks: The Golden Dragon China Index recorded three consecutive declines, with NIO and Alibaba weighing most on the index.
Golden Dragon China Index slightly declined, reported at 6051.33 points.
New York Mellon China ADR Index fell 0.58%, closing at 341.63 points
Energy: Crude oil futures rose to a near six-week high, ongoing US-Iran conflict poses a threat to Middle East energy exports.
WTI crude oil futures rose 0.88%, reported at 91.01 dollars/barrel.
Brent crude oil futures rose 1.04%, quoted at 95.63 dollars per barrel.
NYMEX natural gas futures rose 1.79%, quoted at 2.956 dollars per million British thermal units.
Metals: Copper prices fell to a more-than-one-week low, with elevated oil prices heightening market concerns about the global economic outlook. Gold prices rose as the dollar moved lower.
Spot gold rose 1.22%, reported at 4381.68 dollars per ounce.
Spot silver rose 1.93%, reported at 65.3155 USD/ounce.

📈 Market breadth: looking for top and bottom signals

S&P 500 market breadth (percentage of constituent stocks above 20MA): 50.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Nasdaq 100 market breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 58.3% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Hang Seng Index market breadth (proportion of constituents above 20MA): 60.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Broad-Based Index

✅ Strong sectors/assets: emerging markets, the seven major tech giants, S&P 500.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: S&P Mid Cap 400, S&P Equal Weighted, Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted.

Factor Style

✅ Strong sectors/assets: high short-interest ratio stocks, shareholder return (high dividend), low-volatility defensive stocks.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: high-quality stocks, small-cap stocks, high-volatility stocks.

📝 Market Summary

Market style is relatively mixed, with no extreme one-sided style switch appearing; it is recommended to focus on the independent trends of individual sectors.

Cross-Asset Class

✅ Strong sectors/assets: Crude oil, Commodity Index, US Dollar Index.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: 7-10 Year Treasury Bond, Copper, Gold.

🛑 Market Risk Dashboard

VIX (Panic Index): 15.20 | Skew (Black Swan Index): 58.87
Current market status: Normal — volatility is in a normal range, suitable for trend strategies.

Economic Data Schedule

08:30: Hong Kong August PMI (previous value is 51)
08:30: Japan August Services PMI final (initial value 52.3)
09:45: China August RatingDog services PMI (estimated at 50.6, previous 50.4)
16:00: Eurozone August services PMI final value (forecast 51.7, preliminary 51.7)
16:30: UK August Services PMI final (forecast 52.8, flash 52.8)
20:30: U.S. July trade balance (estimated deficit of 90.2 billion dollars, previous value deficit of 73.3 billion dollars)
20:30: U.S. initial jobless claims last week (estimated at 205,000, previous 203,000)
21:45: U.S. August services PMI final (estimate 56.8, preliminary 56.8)
22:00: U.S. August ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (estimated at 54.1, previous value 54.1)

Central Bank and Government Developments

15:00: Malaysia central bank interest rate decision (expected 2.75%, previous 2.75%)
20:30: Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks
23:00: Bank of England Chief Economist Pill speaks
3-4: Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang travels to Russia to attend the Eastern Economic Forum, etc.
4th 03:00: Speech by US Cleveland Fed President Hammack
4th 03:55: US Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speech

Greater China Stock Market Focus

Chip stocks: Trump administration considers further chip tariffs, companies producing in the US may get exemption.
Food delivery stocks: China says it will carry out concentrated rectification of the chaos of “involution-style” competition in the second half of the year, and deepen the special rectification of “ghost food delivery.”
Tencent (700 HK): Enflame Technology, one of China’s AI chip “Four Little Dragons,” received a warm reception for its IPO, with the retail subscription multiple exceeding 4000 times. Tencent holds a 20% stake in Enflame Technology.
Shein (625 HK): Shein will be included in the Hang Seng Composite Index starting from September 15.

Today’s Key US Stock Earnings

Announcement Date 2026-09-02: AVGO, SNOW, HPE, NTAP, TCOM, FIVE, AGX, NTSK

Part 2: Core Assets Battle Map

2.1 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 193 points
📏 30-day average: 370 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 21:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

2.2 Hang Seng Index (HSI)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 238 points
📏 Last 30-day average: 278 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 09:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

📍 Current price: 25380
🎯 Upside resistance (short-selling defense line): 25462 | 25402 | 25589
🛡️ Lower support (long position defense line): 25248 | 25336 | 25303
💡 Upward breakout path: if it holds at 25402 👉 target 25462
💡 Downward break path: if 25336 is lost 👉 test 25303

2.3 Gold Futures (Gold)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 96 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 89 points
📢 Trading suggestion: ample volatility, suggest trend-following breakout trading.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 20:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

Disclaimer: The information provided by KiraTrader is for general reference and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Entering the market involves risks; please bear your own profits and losses. Copyrights © 2026 All rights reserved by Kira Trader.

Kira Trader Daily Report — 2026-09-01

Kira | StockNote — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:04:42 GMT

Release date: 2026-09-01 | Author: KiraTrader

Part 1: Headline Summary

US-Iran mutual attacks escalate; Bessent hints at Japan rate hike; China closes tax loophole.

The mutual attacks between the US and Iran escalate, WTI crude again rises above 90 dollars, Bessent hints at expanding Iran-related sanctions. During a meeting with the Bank of Japan governor, Bessent hinted at supporting the bank’s interest rate hike to boost the yen. China further plugs tax loopholes, dividends and bonuses for foreign individuals are no longer exempt from individual income tax. The Russian side says Xi Jinping and Putin discussed holding a China-Russia-US leaders’ summit with Trump.

International News

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz escalated again, the United States launched a new round of airstrikes on Iran, hours later Tehran fired missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan, WTI crude oil broke above 90 dollars, and European natural gas futures surged to a more-than-three-year high.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent downplayed the importance of the Strait of Hormuz, hinting that Iran-related sanctions would be expanded. The Iranian president met with leaders of many countries at the SCO summit, and India, Pakistan and other countries expressed hope to strengthen cooperation with Iran.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said that Iran continues to refuse international inspectors access to its nuclear facilities.
Following the Senate, the U.S. House of Representatives also voted to pass a temporary funding bill, and the federal government will avoid a shutdown on October 1.
U.S. job openings edged up in July, reflecting stable labor demand. The Institute for Supply Management reported that manufacturing expansion slowed in August, but remained near a four-year high.
Fed Governor Barr said that if inflation fails to come down, the central bank should be prepared to raise interest rates.
The yen hit its lowest level since the Japanese government intervened in the foreign exchange market in late July. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, in talks with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, said he strongly supports Japan taking decisive action over the severely undervalued yen. The market is almost certain that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in September.
The eurozone inflation rate rose to a near three-year high in August, further strengthening the case for the central bank to raise interest rates. The president of Germany’s central bank said the slowdown in core inflation is good news.
Global bond sell-off spreads to emerging markets, and bond yields in South Africa, South Korea, Poland, and other countries all rise.
Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that trade negotiations with the United States can resume, but only if Washington stops publicly humiliating Canada.
Due to surging AI server demand, Dell raised its fiscal year revenue outlook by $25 billion to $192 billion, and shares surged in after-hours trading.
Anthropic will launch a new version of the AI model Fable, with cheaper pricing and stronger coding capabilities.

Greater China News

China further closes tax loopholes, foreign individuals receiving dividends from foreign-invested enterprises no longer enjoy tax exemption policy, and need to pay 20% personal income tax.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has embarked on his busiest overseas visit schedule in seven years. The Kremlin revealed that Putin and Xi Jinping discussed the possibility of holding a trilateral meeting with Trump during this year’s APEC Shenzhen summit.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang said that he is willing to work with the US side to promote the building of a constructive and strategically stable relationship and strive for practical results
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said China’s obstruction caused the G20 finance ministers meeting to fail to issue a communiqué, according to reports China opposed other countries’ wording on eliminating “non-market policies” to curb global trade imbalances.
Germany’s Finance Ministry plans to finalize a tougher trade plan toward China within weeks, possibly involving the imposition of additional tariffs.
UBS said that China may find it difficult to develop a solution that can truly replace ASML’s cutting-edge extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) technology in the next ten years.
Baidu’s chief financial officer He Haijian said that the artificial intelligence business may soon bring profits and cash returns comparable to those of the search business
BYD’s August car sales grew 18% year-on-year, with surging exports offsetting weakness in the domestic market, but still below the level needed to achieve the full-year sales target.
Canadian International Trade Tribunal initiates investigation into alleged dumping and subsidization of certain truck and bus tires from China.

European and US Markets Overview

US stock market: Nasdaq 100 Index posts biggest drop in two weeks, US-Iran conflict escalation hits market sentiment.
S&P 500 index fell 0.71%, reported at 7631.47 points
Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.79%, reported at 52766.88 points.
The NASDAQ Composite Index fell 1.03%, to 26099.77 points.
Chinese concept stocks: Golden Dragon China Index declined, with NIO and JD Group the biggest drags on the index.
Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.34%, reported 6054.36 points.
BNY Mellon China ADR Index fell 0.86% to 343.62 points.
Energy: WTI crude oil breaks above $90 for the first time since late July, with escalating US-Iran hostilities making the market worry about the supply outlook.
WTI crude oil futures rose 5.2%, reported at 90.22 USD/barrel
Brent crude oil futures rose 4.6%, to $94.65 per barrel.
NYMEX natural gas futures fell 1.06%, reported at 2.904 dollars per million British thermal units.
Metals: Tightening supply pushes zinc prices to their highest level in more than four years. Gold prices extend declines, and rising oil prices push markets to increase bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Spot gold fell 2.45%, quoted at 4328.82 dollars per ounce.
Silver spot dropped 3.75%, reported at 64.0804 dollars per ounce.

📈 Market breadth: looking for top and bottom signals

S&P 500 market breadth (percentage of constituent stocks above 20MA): 50.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Nasdaq 100 market breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 58.3% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Hang Seng Index market breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 50.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Broad-Based Index

✅ Strong sectors/assets: emerging markets, the seven major tech giants, S&P 500.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: S&P Mid Cap 400, S&P Equal Weighted, Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted.

Factor Style

✅ Strong sectors/assets: high short-interest ratio stocks, shareholder return (high dividend), low-volatility defensive stocks.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: high-quality stocks, small-cap stocks, high-volatility stocks.

📝 Market Summary

Market style is relatively mixed, with no extreme one-sided style switch appearing; it is recommended to focus on the independent trends of individual sectors.

Cross-Asset Class

✅ Strong sectors/assets: Crude oil, Commodity Index, US Dollar Index.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: Gold, 7-10 Year Treasury Bond, short-term bonds (SHY).

🛑 Market Risk Dashboard

VIX (fear index): 16.34 | Skew (black swan index): 61.12
Current market status: Normal — volatility is in a normal range, suitable for trend strategies.

Economic Data Schedule

09:30: Australia’s second quarter GDP seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter (estimate 0.3%, previous 0.3%)
20:15: U.S. August ADP employment change (estimated increase of 47,000, previous value increase of 44,000)
22:00: U.S. July factory orders month-on-month (estimated 0.7%, previous value -0.3%)
22:00: U.S. July durable goods orders month-on-month final value (estimated at 1.1%, preliminary at 1.1%)

Central Bank and Government Developments

10:00: New Zealand central bank interest rate decision (forecast 2.75%, previous 2.5%)
21:45: Bank of Canada rate decision (expected 2.25%, previous 2.25%)
2nd: Bank of Japan Policy Board member Hajime Takata speech
2-4: Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang travels to Russia to attend the Eastern Economic Forum, etc.
3rd 02:00: Federal Reserve Beige Book report

Greater China Stock Market Focus

AI server supply chain: Thanks to surging AI server demand, Dell raised its revenue outlook for this fiscal year by $25 billion to $192 billion, and its share price surged in after-hours trading.
Lithography machine concept stocks: UBS expects that China may find it difficult to develop lithography technology that can rival ASML’s top-tier equipment in the next 10 years.
Baidu (9888 HK): Baidu CFO He Haijian said that the AI business will soon bring profits comparable to the search business.

Today’s Key US Stock Earnings

Announcement date 2026-09-01: PANW, DELL, MDT, CRDO, MDB, NIO, GTLB

Part 2: Core Assets Battle Map

2.1 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 314 points
📏 30-day average: 373 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 21:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

2.2 Hang Seng Index (HSI)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 276 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 284 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 09:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

📍 Current price: 25298
🎯 Upside resistance (short-selling defense line): 25463 | 25590 | 25360
🛡️ Lower support (long position defense line): 25247 | 25130
💡 Upward breakout path: if it holds 25301 👉 look to 25360
💡 Downward break path: if 25247 is lost 👉 test 25130

2.3 Gold Futures (Gold)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 125 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 90 points
📢 Trading suggestion: ample volatility, suggest trend-following breakout trading.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 20:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

ServiceNow TP165

Kira | StockNote — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 04:02:15 GMT

ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE: NOW)

—— 企業級工作流自動化龍頭，迎來 AI 商業化變現拐點

當前股價：$147.99（截至 2026 年 9 月 1 日）
目標價區間：$140.00 – $164.00（大行目標價上限看 $160，隱含約 +8.1% 至 +15% 潛在空間）
投資評級：買入 / 增持（Buy / Overweight）
市值 / 估值：1,530 億美元｜NTM P/E 31.3x｜EV/EBITDA 53.9x

一、核心投資邏輯（Investment Thesis）

ServiceNow 正從傳統「記錄系統（System-of-Record）」SaaS 服務商，升級為企業級「全棧 AI 編排層（AI Orchestration Layer）」。股價自 2024 年高位回調後，當前前瞻估值已釋放大部分泡沫，具備穩健的風險回報比。

1. AI 商業化進入爆發期，ACV 突破 10 億美元

高增長動能：生成式 AI 產品線（Now Assist / ServiceNow AI）年化合約價值（ACV）在 2026 年 Q2 正式突破 10 億美元，管理層指引至 FY26 年底達 15 億美元，並定下 2030 年 AI ACV 達 90 億美元的長期目標（佔總營收目標約 30%）。
滲透率激增：部署 Agentic AI（智能體）的企業客戶在過去 9 個月增長 9 倍；AI 原生 SKU 帶動客戶升級至高階方案，預計提供 20%–30% 的 ARPU（每用戶平均收入）提升。

2. 跨模塊交叉銷售強勁，TAM 擴容至 6,000 億美元

多輪驅動：除核心 ITSM/ITOM 外，安全與風險模塊（Security & Risk）年化收入超 10 億美元（有機增長 >40%），CRM 模塊逼近 20 億美元（YoY >30%），疊加收購 Moveworks（AI 助手）、Veza 及 Armis，顯著強化數據整合與安全壁壘。
潛在市場倍增：公司將 2028 年 TAM 預期從 3,500 億美元大幅上調至 6,000 億美元。

3. 高續約率與經常性收入，營收質量極高

續約率高達 98%，約 70% 的現有客戶持續增加支出；約 97% 的營收來自訂閱制，淨收入留存率（NER）預期維持在 125% 以上。
現金流充沛，TTM 自由現金流（FCF）達 49.2 億美元，淨負債僅 37.9 億美元，並有持續股份回購提供 EPS 支撐。

二、財務預測與同業估值比較

1. 業績展望（FY25E–FY27E）

營收增長：預計從 FY24 的 109.8 億美元增長至 FY26E 的 162.1 億美元（YoY +22.4%）及 FY27E 的 192.4 億美元，維持約 20% 的複合年均增長率（CAGR）。
利潤率擴張：隨內部 AI 應用節省成本（預計年化節省 3 億美元）及員工規模平穩，FY26E/FY27E EBITDA 利潤率預計提升至 38.4%–38.8%，Non-GAAP 營業利潤率有望突破 32%。

2. 同業橫向估值對比

估值點評：雖然 ServiceNow 歷史倍數顯著高於同業，但前瞻市盈率（NTM P/E）已降至 31.3x，接近歷史估值區間下限。其 22% 以上的高增長顯著領先同業中位數（~15.7%），溢價具備基本面支撐。

在TERMINAL的個股全景可以看到,他現在是高於平均值128.64, +1標準差的估值應該在159左右,仍有UPSIDE.

三、主要風險與應對（Downside Risks）

AI 替代與巨頭競爭：微軟 Copilot 或自建開源 Agent 可能分流企業自動化需求。
- 緩衝因素：98% 續約率及企業深層數據工作流帶來極高遷移成本，AI Control Tower 提供單點工具無法替代的合規與管控能力。
公共部門支出放緩：政府及公共部門預算審批延遲可能壓制短期訂單。
- 緩衝因素：EMEA 國際市場拓展及 Moveworks 企業端大單轉化提供對沖。
利率高企下的估值久期風險：美債 10 年期收益率處於 4.78% 高位，若 AI ACV 增速不及預期，可能引發多重估值壓縮。

四、投資建議與催化劑（Catalysts & Strategy）

操作建議：建議在 $140–$148 區間逢低分批佈局。當前估值已合理反映宏觀不確定性，中期股價催化劑將由 AI 變現數據驅動。
主要催化劑：
1. Q3 FY26 季度業績發布：關注 cRPO 增長及 AI ACV 是否穩步朝 15 億美元目標邁進。
2. Moveworks 與網絡安全資產整合進展：關注高階 SKU 升級帶來的客戶 ARPU 擴張情況。
3. kira 指標indic到$164 TP, $135 SL(近日圖ST)

Kira Trader Daily Report — 2026-08-31

Kira | StockNote — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:06:28 GMT

Publication date: 2026-08-31 | Author: KiraTrader

Part 1: Headline Summary

Middle East situation escalates; NVIDIA makes massive investment in MediaTek; Shein lands on Hong Kong stocks.

The U.S. and Iran attacked each other for the first time in about a month, with Middle East tensions pushing WTI crude oil futures to their biggest gain in three weeks. Bessent reportedly met with Japanese officials, and he expects monetary authorities to push the yen stronger. The Chinese government plans to promote the expansion and upgrading of goods consumption. Zhipu’s first-half revenue missed expectations, and Huawei’s profit fell sharply. Shein will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday, and the grey market fell. Nvidia will invest 3.5 billion dollars in MediaTek.

International News

The United States and Iran attacked each other for the first time in about a month; Trump told Fox News that he would respond to Iran’s attack on U.S. forces and insisted that the United States has taken control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Reportedly, U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll submitted his resignation to Trump after a conflict with Defense Secretary Hegseth.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent responded to former mentor Druckenmiller’s criticism, saying that the US Treasury market is the most resilient in the world, and that he and Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh have no disagreement on the issue of the Treasury market.
Reportedly, Bessent held a meeting with Japan’s finance minister and central bank governor, and he believes the Japanese government and central bank will take measures to push the yen stronger. In addition, during the G20 meeting, Bessent also had a rare discussion with the Russian finance minister on financial cooperation.
Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping met during the SCO summit, and the Kremlin said the topics mainly focused on bilateral cooperation matters, with the Ukraine war only briefly mentioned.
Germany’s inflation rate rose slightly in August, providing support for the European Central Bank to take rate hike action in September. Watch the eurozone August consumer prices to be released on Tuesday.
JPMorgan believes that after Fed Chair Warsh released hawkish signals, uncertainty over the interest rate outlook poses a headwind, so it has temporarily abandoned its bullish stance on US stocks before the September policy meeting, and expects that US stocks are more likely to fall after this Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data release.
Saudi Arabia is reportedly seeking at least $8 billion in new loans to ease the fiscal strain caused by the war.

Greater China News

China’s Ministry of Commerce and other 7 departments issued implementation opinions on promoting the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, proposing that by 2030 the total retail sales of social consumer goods will reach about 60 trillion yuan
Chinese fast-fashion giant Shein will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday, with an issue price of HK$48.56 per share; at one point on Monday its shares fell 14% in the grey market, and market doubts about its future growth potential may put pressure on the share price on its first day of listing.
Enflame Technology, one of the ‘Four Little Dragons’ of China’s AI chips, set its STAR Market listing issue price at 142.18 yuan per share, and is expected to raise more than 6.1 billion yuan in total.
The Information reports that ChangXin Technology has already begun small-batch production of advanced high-bandwidth memory, only one generation behind the memory of companies such as Samsung and SK Hynix that is entering mass production.
Zhipu’s first-half revenue grew nearly fourfold, but still fell short of average analyst expectations, and its loss-making situation continued. Executives expect that by the end of August, Zhipu’s annualized revenue will reach 1.6 billion dollars.
Weighed down by tight memory supply, Huawei’s first-half profit fell sharply, and the company is putting more resources into semiconductor research.
NVIDIA will invest 3.5 billion dollars in MediaTek in the form of purchasing convertible bonds. This will be the company’s largest direct investment outside the United States to date, aimed at strengthening its core position in the AI hardware industry chain.
Trump reached a drug subsidy agreement with nine pharmaceutical manufacturers, including BeiGene, and these companies will provide outpatient drug discounts to the state Medicaid program.
Statistics show that floods and mudslides along the Nepal and China border last week have killed 955 people and left 4,471 missing.
The mayor of Brampton, Ontario, Canada, said BYD had asked him about taking over Stellantis’s idle factory in the suburbs of Toronto.

European and US Markets Overview

U.S. stock market: S&P 500 index fell for two consecutive sessions, Middle East tensions escalated again, pushing oil prices higher, investors worried that this would further intensify inflationary pressures and prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
S&P 500 Index fell 0.33%, to 7686.14 points.
Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%, reported at 53185.9 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.12%, reporting 26370.89 points.
Chinese concept stocks: The Golden Dragon China Index fell, with Alibaba and KE Holdings dragging the index the most.
Golden Dragon China Index fell 2.19%, reported at 6074.98 points.
The BNY Mellon China ADR Index fell 2.91% to 346.59 points.
Energy: WTI crude oil futures post biggest gain in three weeks, Middle East situation escalation intensifies supply risks
WTI crude oil futures rose 2.83%, reported at 85.76 USD per barrel.
Brent crude oil futures rose 1.32%, reported at 90.49 USD/barrel
NYMEX natural gas futures rose 1.63%, quoted at $2.935 per million British thermal units
Metals: London Metal Exchange closed for holiday, spot gold edged down, after US-Iran conflict restarted market worries inflationary pressures may prompt Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
Spot gold fell 0.4%, reported at 4437.38 dollars per ounce.
Spot silver rose 0.29%, reported at 66.5751 US dollars per ounce.

📈 Market breadth: looking for top and bottom signals

S&P 500 market breadth (percentage of constituent stocks above 20MA): 50.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Nasdaq 100 breadth (percentage of constituent stocks above 20MA): 55.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Hang Seng Index market breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 40.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Broad-Based Index

✅ Strong sectors/assets: Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted, non-US developed markets.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: Russell 2000 (small cap), S&P Small Cap, S&P Equal Weight.

Factor Style

✅ Strong sectors/assets: high short interest ratio stocks, social sentiment stocks, momentum stocks.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: Shareholder returns (high dividend), high-quality stocks, small-cap stocks.

📝 Market Summary

Market style is relatively mixed, with no extreme one-sided style switch appearing; it is recommended to focus on the independent trends of individual sectors.

Cross-Asset Class

✅ Strong sectors/assets: Commodity Index, crude oil, Agriculture.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: S&P 500, US dollar index, long bonds (TLT).

🛑 Market Risk Dashboard

VIX (panic index): 14.92 | Skew (black swan index): 58.85
Current market status: Normal — volatility is in a normal range, suitable for trend strategies.

Economic Data Schedule

07:50: Japan second-quarter capital expenditure year-on-year (estimate is -0.3%, previous value is 0%)
08:30: Japan August manufacturing PMI final value (preliminary value was 55.1)
08:30: Taiwan August Manufacturing PMI (previous value was 55.1)
09:45: China August RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (estimated at 51, previous value 50.9)
14:00: UK August national house prices month-on-month (estimated at 0.1%, previous value 0.1%)
16:00: Eurozone August Manufacturing PMI final (estimate 52.8, preliminary 52.8)
16:30: UK August Manufacturing PMI final (forecast 51.5, preliminary 51.5)
17:00: Eurozone August consumer price index year-on-year preliminary value (estimated at 3.3%, previous value 2.9%)
17:00: Eurozone July unemployment rate (estimated at 6.3%, previous value is 6.3%)
21:30: Canada August Manufacturing PMI (previous value is 53.5)
21:45: US August Manufacturing PMI Final (estimate is 53.3, preliminary is 53.2)
22:00: US August ISM Manufacturing Index (estimate 55.2, previous 55.6)
22:00: U.S. July job openings (estimated at 7.332 million, previous value 7.359 million)
1st: Macau August gross gaming revenue YoY (estimate 1%, previous -8.4%)

Central Bank and Government Developments

20:30: European Central Bank Governing Council member, Bundesbank President Nagel speaks
21:05: Federal Reserve Governor Barr speaks
23:30: European Central Bank Vice President Vujcic speech

Greater China Stock Market Focus

Consumer stocks: China plans for total retail sales of consumer goods to reach about 60 trillion yuan by 2030
Online game stocks: China approved 209 domestic online games and 6 imported online games in August.
SHEIN (625 HK): SHEIN will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday, the issue price is 48.56 Hong Kong dollars per share, the public offering portion was oversubscribed by nearly 6 times, and the stock at one point fell 14% in the gray market on Monday.
Meituan (3690 HK): Meituan’s Keeta has been complained about by Brazilian competitors, accused of relying on subsidies to lower prices.
Zhipu (2513 HK): First-half revenue grew nearly fourfold, but still fell short of analysts’ average expectations, and the loss-making situation persists.
Ronshine China (3301 HK): Ronshine China first-half net loss 1.57 billion yuan
Kaisa Group (1638 HK): Kaisa Group first-half revenue RMB 2.20 billion
Yuzhou Group (1628 HK): Yuzhou Group first-half net loss 4.75 billion yuan, loss 5.63 billion yuan in same period last year
CITIC Financial Assets (2799 HK): CITIC Financial Assets first-half net profit 6.86 billion yuan RMB, year-ago period 6.17 billion yuan.
Evergrande Property (6666 HK): Evergrande Property’s first-half net profit was 517.0 million RMB, same period last year 472.3 million RMB.

Today’s Key US Stock Earnings

Announcement date 2026-08-31: SSL, SAIC, GRFS

Part 2: Core Assets Battle Map

2.1 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 179 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 375 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 21:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

2.2 Hang Seng Index (HSI)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 288 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 284 points
📢 Trading suggestion: ample volatility, suggest trend-following breakout trading.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 09:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

📍 Current price: 25392
🎯 Upside resistance (short-selling defense line): 25463 | 25590 | 25806
🛡️ Lower support (long position defense line): 25380 | 25247 | 25301
💡 Upward breakout path: if it holds 25463 👉 look to 25590
💡 Downward break path: If it loses 25380 👉 test 25301

2.3 Gold Futures (Gold)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 52 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 87 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 20:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

Kira 每周 AI & 科技產業深度週報（08/31/2026）

Kira | StockNote — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 07:31:22 GMT

一、宏觀與流動性：定價範式從「純需求」切換至「定價權」

市場正經歷資產定價範式的結構性轉移。AI Capex 的持續擴張推升美債 10 年期長端利率，本輪聯準會的被動性特徵明顯——不同於 2021 年由央行引導市場，當前是長端利率走高倒逼聯準會跟進，9 月升息機率實質上高於市場定價的 50%。

流動性脫虛向實：7–8 月以來，流動性從金融資產持續向實體經濟（AI Capex、能源原油、供應鏈原材料）轉移，這是高估值倍數（High-multiple）科技股與加密資產承壓的主因。
交易核心觀測指標：緊盯升息落地後的 10 年期美債利率走勢。若長端利率在升息後走穩或回落，回調即是優質 AI 資產的加倉窗口；若長端利率加速上行，則維持防禦配置。
選股範式變更：市場不再單純追逐「需求端爆發」，而是轉向考驗「定價權與真實自由現金流回報」，存儲原廠與上游材料板塊是首批驗證標的。

二、企業級 AI 與軟件：生產環境拐點確立，Snowflake 業績具備超預期空間

第2季度(Q2) 是企業從 POC（概念驗證）邁向部分生產環境（Partial-Production）的關鍵節點，實質性收入加速預計將在 2027 年全面爆發。

企業 AI 演進路徑：
2025-2026 H1: 模型微調 / POC 探索 
      ↓
2026 Q2: Palantir 跑通生產環境 → Snowflake / MongoDB / Salesforce 進入 Partial-Production
      ↓
2027: 企業 Agent 與核心業務流程全面量產加速

1. Snowflake (SNOW) — 業績前瞻具備 5–6pp 上修空間

大客戶驅動效應：ARR > 100 萬美元（尤其是 > 500 萬美元）的 Tier-1 客戶貢獻了公司 60%–70% 的營收。只要少數指標性客戶進入正式生產，即可為季度增速提供 3–5 個百分點的持續動能。
用量爆發案例：北歐某大型保險客戶中，60% 的低複雜度理賠已由 AI 完全接管，AI 算力消耗量飆升 5–10 倍，並帶動傳統數據庫負載額外提升 +20%–30%。
用戶基數槓桿：Cortex Code 成本下降帶動使用頻率提升；Cortex / Snowflake Intelligence 將典型企業內的活躍用戶群從約 50 名數據工程師直接擴展至 500 名業務決策人員。
業績預期：本季產品收入預計實現 同比 +35%–36%（顯著高於管理層指引的 ~30%）。
等日圖VV向上,生出新tp后,可以跟入long call dec 340

2. MongoDB (MDB) & Databricks

MongoDB：受惠於 Voyage AI 與 Atlas 的整合優化，本季營收預期達到 同比 +28%–29%（超出指引上限約 4pp）。但需注意 Q4 起面臨來自 PostgreSQL、Snowflake、Databricks 的競爭分流。
Databricks：ARR 年化增長維持在 50%–60%，在三者中擴張速度最快。
我也是在等日圖CC tp在vv up之後出現后才入場

三、硬件板塊核心 Alpha：光纖瓶頸與 Rubin NVL 架構下的 PTFE 革命

1. 光纖（Optical Fiber）— 確定性最高的硬體細分賽道

7–8 月頭部四家光纖企業營收同比 +30%、淨利潤同比 >50%、光纖毛利率達 60%，宣告產業正式進入 2027–2028 年的歷史級上行週期。

供給端雙重硬瓶頸：
- 金屬鍺（Ge）：全球戰略資源管制，國內價格從 1 萬/kg 翻倍至 2 萬/kg（海外為國內 3 倍）。擴產週期長達 5–10 年，全球供給缺口將從 2026 年的 29 噸急劇擴大至 2028 年的 82 噸。
- 質量流量控制器（MFC）：全球僅 2–3 家海外供應商，產能與半導體設備共享，交付週期長達 1.5 年，短期無擴產計劃。
需求驅動三大支柱：
- 保偏光纖（PMF，用於 CPO/NPO）：2028 年累計需求約 37.7 萬芯公里，對應 約 200 億人民幣市場空間（長期看 300 億）。當前單價 70–80 元/米，規模化後預計仍可維持 30–40 元/米的高盈利水平。
- 空芯光纖（Hollow-Core）：微軟北美率先導入以解決低延遲問題，當前北美需求約 20 萬芯公里（單價約 $5,000/芯公里）。
- DCI 互聯：每 1GW 數據中心拉動約 800 萬–1,100 萬芯公里光纖需求。

2. NVIDIA Rubin NVL 架構 — PCB / PTFE CCL 價值量躍升

NVIDIA 2028 年指引預計營收同比 +70%，Rubin 定價預計較 2027 年上漲約 15%。Rubin 機櫃出貨量預估為 7–8 萬台（GB 系列約 4–5 萬台）。

每機櫃 PCB 價值量躍升路徑：
GB300 ($50k–$60k) ──> Rubin NVL72 ($110k–$120k) ──> Rubin Ultra ($230k–$250k)

PTFE CCL / PCB 爆發：NVL576 強制配置 18 個 Switch Tray（數量翻倍），Switch PCB 需求同步倍增。材料體系轉向 PTFE + M9 混壓方案。
市場空間（2028E 基準）：PTFE PCB 市場約 65 億美元；PTFE CCL 市場約 18 億美元（成本構成：二氧化矽 40%、樹脂 25%、銅箔 25%、玻纖布 10%）。

核心硬件賽道標的橫向對比

賽道領域代表標的2027E 估值 / 關鍵財務數據核心看點與催化劑光纖龍頭中天科技 (Zhongtian)2027E PE 約 7×具備北美出海期權（近 1 個月核心催化），估值處於板塊底部光纖龍頭長飛光纖 (YOFC)2027E PE 約 10×光棒與特種光纖（PMF/空芯）全產業鏈自給率最高光纖龍頭亨通光電 (Hengtong)2027E PE 約 7×海纜與特種光纖雙輪驅動，當前估值性價比極高PTFE CCL生益科技 (Shengyi)全球份額預計 40%+PTFE 覆銅板已通過核心認證，深度綁定 Rubin 供應鏈高階 PCB滬電股份 / 深南電路產業鏈第一梯隊具備 PTFE 混壓板量產技術壁壘，Switch Tray 翻倍最大受益者

四、能源與 AIDC：xAI 4.2GW 缺口填補路徑與政策風險

xAI 2026–2027 年規劃的 8GW IT 算力對應約 10GW 電力需求，其中約 70% 必須依賴表後電源（Behind-the-Meter）。目前已鎖定 2.8GW，剩餘 4.2GW 存在實質供電缺口。

1. 缺口填補現實路徑

SpaceX 燃機葉片進展：SpaceX 內部進行單晶葉片鑄造，理論上可縮短 18 個月調試週期。但火箭引擎（運行以分鐘計）的工況無法直接等同於連續運轉數千小時的工業燃機，2028 年前無法形成規模化產能貢獻。
近端最優解（FTI × 傑瑞股份）：航改型燃氣輪機合資方案為當前最佳上行變量。首批已鎖定 40 台訂單（對應 1GW），整體目標交付 100 台（對應 2.5GW）。
必須等日圖vv up先跟進,仲有一周時間埋伏
備用冗餘方案：Bloom Energy 等燃料電池供應商預計提供 1–2GW 緩衝產能。

2. 美國政策法案風險（EO 14420）

影響分層：針對表前 >69kV 設備影響較大，但中國供應鏈在此領域佔比本就極低；表後（Behind-the-meter）設備受干擾相對有限。
風險暴露點：陽光電源（Sungrow）受影響相對較大（美國營收佔比約 15%–20%，儲能 BESS 明確在列）；工商業與表後分散式電源受衝擊較小。

五、模型層與半導體供應鏈其他觀察

MiniMax 數據拆解：H1 營收 1.16 億美元，8 月折合年化 ARR 達 8 億美元（周度 run-rate 折算，存在短期波動水分），全年目標衝擊 10 億美元。但全年毛利率僅 22%–23%，全年前瞻 R&D 高達 8 億美元（H1 佔 3 億，H2 約 5 億），盈利拐點尚未確認，目前本質仍屬敘事驅動交易。
AI ASIC 架構收斂：OpenAI 新自研芯片採用統一計算 + 空間數據流（Spatial Dataflow）架構；Marvell × TPU 則透過 SRAM IP 推進 Prefill/Decode 分離架構，兩者共同驗證了 PD-Split 的架構趨勢。
長鑫存儲（CXMT）擴產：2026/2027/2028 年月產能規劃為 33 萬 / 50 萬 / 65 萬片晶圓；2026 年約 10% 產能分配給 HBM，2027 年有望為國產 ASIC 提供 HBM3e，2028 年形成實質規模放量。
塗膠顯影設備（芯源微）：國產化率不足 1%，為光刻機後最高壁壘環節。FY26 YTD 在手訂單約 32 億人民幣（全年預估 60 億），2027E 預計達 80–90 億；第四代機台已出貨約 10 台（單台 5,000–6,000 萬人民幣）。

六、Kira 交易觀點與組合操作清單

【核心交易配置矩陣】
1. 最高確定性硬體 (Alpha 加倉)：中天科技 (光纖)、滬電股份 / 生益科技 
2. 財報事件驅動 (業績前瞻)：Snowflake (預期營收 Beat 5-6pp，關注 AI 消耗倍數)
3. 能源彈性博弈：FTI × 傑瑞供應鏈 (緊盯 4.2GW 缺口交付節奏)
4. MiniMax (AI短片受惠)

光纖板塊（最強 Alpha）：2027E PE 僅 7–10 倍，低於 MLCC、電子布與 CCL，嚴重低估了金屬鍺與 MFC 帶來的結構性供給短缺。優先配置具備北美出海催化的中天科技及特種光纖龍頭長飛光纖。
Rubin 材料升級鏈：關注 PTFE 體系帶來的價值量重塑，生益科技（PTFE CCL 認證龍頭）與滬電股份/深南電路（高多層混壓板）具備顯著定價權。
宏觀交易節奏：密切監控 9 月聯準會升息前後美債 10 年期收益率曲線。若長端利率在升息落地後見頂回落，即刻加大對上述高景氣度 AI 硬體標的的配置權重。

Kira Trader Daily Report — 2026-08-30

Kira | StockNote — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:05:53 GMT

Release date: 2026-08-30 | Author: KiraTrader

Part 1: Headline Summary

Warsh releases hawkish signals; U.S. military again strikes Iran; China’s new housing policy

Federal Reserve Chair Warsh released hawkish signals at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium, with September rate hike expectations rising. Trump claimed the United States would take majority control of Venezuela’s 65 billion barrels of oil reserves. U.S. military struck Iran for the first time in more than a month, and Brent crude rose at the Asian open. China stepped up housing market support policies, extending mortgage terms to a maximum of 40 years and promoting sales of completed homes.

International News

Federal Reserve Chair Warsh warned at the Jackson Hole central bank annual conference that current financial conditions are not restrictive, price pressures have not truly eased yet, and vowed to achieve the 2% inflation target. This hawkish stance pushed the probability of a September rate hike to nearly 60%.
University of Michigan survey shows U.S. consumer confidence in August fell for the first time in three months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision shows that for the year ending March this year, nonfarm payrolls could be revised down by 79,000 people, further highlighting the cooling labor market.
Trump said he plans to authorize farmers and ranchers to process food themselves, and instructed the drafting of relevant legal documents to break the monopoly in the meat processing industry, a move aimed at lowering beef prices before the midterm elections.
Trump said the U.S. will gain majority control of Venezuela’s more than 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves by forming a joint venture with private companies. It is reported that the joint venture will obtain 100-year concessions for 17 oilfields, with the U.S. controlling 55% of its actual production and receiving crude oil at cost price.
The US military on Sunday attacked Iranian rocket launchers that were preparing to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, the first US military action against Iran in more than a month.
Iran’s president signaled willingness to make concessions to end the war, stating that in the efforts to end the war, we may not be able to achieve our goals one hundred percent, and holding an all-or-nothing, uncompromising attitude does not help resolve the problem.
Harvard University economics professor Kenneth Rogoff warned that the U.S. government’s debt problem is worsening, but fiscal reform may only be realized when a major crisis strikes voters and forces Washington to take action.
The yen again fell below 160 against the dollar. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent defended last month’s intervention in the yen, saying that once disorder emerges in the yen market, it could trigger forced liquidation, in turn disrupting global markets and pushing up borrowing costs for U.S. households and businesses.
Sources say Glencore has made provisions of about 480 million dollars for its exposure to iron ore trader Radiant World. Radiant World has run into trouble over suspected provision of forged documents to banks.

Greater China News

China rolls out a new round of real estate support measures, with the new policy including extending the term of individual housing loans from a maximum of 30 years to 40 years, pushing developers to shift from the presale model to sales of completed homes, and optimizing the financing system for real estate enterprises.
Goldman Sachs chief China economist Shan Hui pointed out that although extending loan maturities can reduce monthly payments, it will increase total interest expenses, and the boosting effect on housing demand may be limited.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will be held in Kyrgyzstan on Monday. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Putin will attend. According to reports, the Chinese and Russian leaders will discuss the “Power of Siberia 2” natural gas pipeline project, including the possibility of finalizing related agreements.
Nepal warned that rising water levels in the Bhote Koshi River could trigger more floods and disrupt rescue work, after a catastrophic flood triggered by a glacial collapse in the China-Nepal border region, where at least 690 deaths and more than 3000 missing have been confirmed.
Benefiting from the AI boom igniting demand for memory chips, ChangXin Technology’s first-half revenue grew nearly 9 times, and profits also surged sharply. ChangXin sued the U.S. Department of Defense, requesting to be removed from the list of companies associated with the Chinese military.
BYD’s second-quarter net profit grew 30% year-on-year to 8.2 billion yuan, the first growth in five quarters, overseas sales revenue exceeded Greater China for the first time, accounting for 53% of total first-half revenue.
Tencent released the Hy4 Preview foundation model with 770 billion parameters and a 1 million token context window, and said it slightly leads Zhipu GLM-5.3 and Moonshot Kimi K3 in internal blind tests.
According to a report by The Information, the Trump administration is crafting new artificial intelligence rules that could close a loophole allowing Chinese companies to remotely use advanced chips via data centers in countries such as Thailand and Singapore.
Taiwan expects that by 2075 Taiwan’s population may drop to about 12.15 million, almost halving compared with 2026, and the labor force population may sharply decline by nearly two-thirds.

European and American Markets at a Glance:

US stock market: S&P 500 index closed lower last Friday, Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish remarks boosted rate hike expectations.
S&P 500 index fell 0.2%, reported 7711.76 points
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was basically flat, reported at 53559.99 points.
Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.5%, to 26402.42 points
Chinese concept stocks: The Golden Dragon China Index rose, with Alibaba and KE Holdings contributing the most to the index.
The Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.4% to 6210.91 points.
Energy: Oil prices fell slightly last Friday. After US military struck Iran on Sunday, Brent crude rose at Asian open on Monday.
WTI crude oil futures fell 0.2%, reported at 83.4 US dollars per barrel
NYMEX natural gas futures fell 0.7%, reported at 2.888 dollars per million British thermal units
Metals: Gold prices slumped; Warsh’s hawkish remarks boosted expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. As the market continues to focus on supply tightness, copper prices rose for a ninth consecutive week.
Spot gold fell 3.1%, reported at 4455.11 USD/oz.
Spot silver fell 4.1%, quoted at 66.3815 dollars per ounce.

📈 Market breadth: looking for top and bottom signals

S&P 500 market breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 40.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Nasdaq 100 market breadth (proportion of constituents above 20MA): 60.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Hang Seng Index market breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 40.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Broad-Based Index

✅ Strong sectors/assets: seven major technology giants, S&P 500, emerging markets.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: S&P Small Cap, Russell 2000 (small-cap), S&P Mid Cap 400.

Factor Style

✅ Strong sectors/assets: value stocks, shareholder returns (high dividend), growth stocks.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: social sentiment stocks, high short-interest ratio stocks, high volatility stocks.

📝 Market Summary

Market style is relatively mixed, with no extreme one-sided style switch appearing; it is recommended to focus on the independent trends of individual sectors.

Cross-Asset Class

✅ Strong sectors/assets: Agriculture, US Dollar Index, Crude Oil.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: 7-10 Year Treasury Bond, Gold, Short-term Bonds (SHY).

🛑 Market Risk Dashboard

VIX (fear index): 14.43 | Skew (black swan index): 58.09
Current market status: Normal — volatility is in a normal range, suitable for trend strategies.

Economic Data Schedule

07:50: Japan July industrial production month-on-month preliminary (estimated at -0.7%, previous value 1.9%)
09:30: China August Manufacturing PMI (estimated at 49.5, previous value 49.2)
09:30: China August non-manufacturing PMI (expected 49.4, previous 49)
16:30: Hong Kong July retail sales value year-on-year (estimated at 6.3%, previous value 4.6%)
20:00: Germany August consumer price index year-on-year preliminary (estimated 3%, previous 2.8%)
22:30: US August Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (estimated 1.6, previous 1.3)

Central Bank and Government Developments

31st: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit is held in Kyrgyzstan, and Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Putin will attend.

Greater China Stock Market Focus

Property stocks: China announced a series of property support measures, including extending the term of individual housing loans to a maximum of 40 years, promoting developers to shift to the model of selling completed homes, and optimizing the financing system for real estate enterprises, to curb the multi-year downturn in the real estate market.
Bank stocks: China’s major state-owned banks’ first-half profits generally grew, and net interest margins tended to stabilize.
Tencent (700 HK): Tencent released the Hy4 Preview foundation model with 770 billion parameters and a 1 million token context window, and said it slightly leads Zhipu GLM-5.3 and Moonshot Kimi K3 in internal blind tests.
BYD (1211 HK): BYD’s second-quarter net profit grew 30% year on year to 8.2 billion yuan, the first growth in five quarters; overseas sales revenue exceeded that of Greater China for the first time, accounting for 53% of total revenue in the first half.
Meituan (3690 HK): As food delivery competition eases, Meituan’s second-quarter operating profit jumped 10 times to 2.69 billion yuan, while analysts on average expected a loss of 846 million yuan.
PetroChina (857 HK): Driven by rising global energy prices, PetroChina’s first-half profit grew 22%
CICC (3908 HK): CICC’s first-half net profit was 8.20 billion yuan, compared with 4.33 billion yuan in the same period last year.
GCL Technology (3800 HK): GCL Technology posted a net loss of 2.08 billion RMB in the first half, while the loss in the same period last year was 1.78 billion RMB.
BBMG Group (2009 HK): BBMG Group’s first-half net loss was 2.17 billion yuan
Sunac China (1918 HK): Sunac China first-half net loss 12.54 billion yuan
CIFI Holdings (884 HK): CIFI Holdings first-half net loss 5.99 billion yuan
China Railway (390 HK): China Railway’s first-half net profit was 8.66 billion yuan, versus 11.8 billion yuan in the same period last year.
Zhongliang Holdings (2772 HK): Zhongliang Holdings’ net loss in the first half was 3.57 billion yuan; the loss in the same period last year was 781.3 million yuan.
Yankuang Energy (1171 HK): Yankuang Energy’s first-half IFRS net profit was RMB 7.87 billion, versus RMB 5.01 billion in the same period last year.
China Shenhua (1088 HK): China Shenhua’s first-half IFRS net profit 31.05 billion yuan
China P&C (2328 HK): China P&C first-half net profit 32.3 billion yuan, same period last year 24.45 billion yuan
COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK): COSCO Shipping Holdings first-half net profit 13.4 billion yuan, year-earlier period 17.54 billion yuan
Country Garden (2007 HK): Country Garden’s first-half net loss was 15.62 billion yuan, compared with a loss of 19.08 billion yuan in the same period last year.
BYD Electronic (285 HK): BYD Electronic first-half net profit 426 million yuan, same period last year 1.73 billion yuan.
Shimao Group (813 HK): Shimao Group’s first-half revenue was 10.96 billion yuan, compared with 14.8 billion yuan in the same period last year
Yuexiu Property (123 HK): Yuexiu Property’s first-half net profit was RMB 87.2 million, versus RMB 1.37 billion in the same period last year.

Today’s Key US Stock Earnings

Announcement date 2026-08-31: SSL, SAIC, GRFS

Part 2: Core Assets Battle Map

2.1 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 368 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 383 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 21:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

2.2 Hang Seng Index (HSI)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 288 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 284 points
📢 Trading suggestion: ample volatility, suggest trend-following breakout trading.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 09:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

📍 Current price: 25472
🎯 Upside resistance (short-selling defense line): 25576 | 25674 | 25806
🛡️ Lower support (long position defense line): 25463 | 25380 | 25301
💡 Upward breakout path: if it holds 25576 👉 target 25620
💡 Downward break path: If 25463 is lost 👉 test 25380

2.3 Gold Futures (Gold)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 31 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 87 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 20:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

Kira Trader Daily Report — 2026-08-27

Kira | StockNote — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 00:04:59 GMT

Publication date: 2026-08-27 | Author: KiraTrader

Part 1: Headline Summary

Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting; Venezuela plans to withdraw from OPEC; Vanke’s losses widen

Markets focus on Federal Reserve Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting on Friday, with traders stepping up hedges against the risk of a dollar rebound. Venezuela is reportedly studying exiting OPEC. Washington is reportedly considering implementing a new round of chip tariff measures, expanding the scope to laptops and other products. China launched a special action to improve the quality of automotive products. Vanke’s first-half revenue slumped more than 30%, and losses widened.

International News

Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting on Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern Time, Apollo Global Management expects Warsh’s economic outlook may have a hawkish tone, and foreign-exchange traders are increasing hedges against the risk of a further dollar rebound.
Boston Fed President said that current interest rates are still moderately restrictive, helping to cool inflation, but the Kansas City and Cleveland Fed presidents hold the opposite view, calling for taking action as soon as possible to curb inflationary pressures.
US goods trade deficit in July hit the largest in over a year, and capital goods import growth was the fastest in decades.
Politico: The U.S. government is considering implementing a new round of chip tariff measures, and the scope may expand to products that use chips such as laptops, data center servers, etc.
Trump ordered that Lake Ontario be renamed Lake America, and Trade Representative Greer hinted at the need to consider banning imports of some Canadian goods. Canada adjusts the retaliatory tariff list, planning to impose 50% tariffs on U.S. copper wire and charcoal.
Trump said he had a “good conversation” with Putin, believing Russia will not attack NATO countries’ territory.
AI company Anthropic is reportedly considering allowing existing shareholders to sell some holdings in the IPO, and may set a longer share lock-up period than usual after listing.
The U.S. Federal Trade Commission is reportedly investigating YouTube’s banning of user accounts, and has entered the final stage of preparing a potential lawsuit.
The European Central Bank’s July meeting minutes show policymakers discussed at the meeting whether it might be necessary to implement a mildly restrictive monetary policy to ensure the inflation rate returns to the 2% target level.
The United States is negotiating with Venezuela to obtain major stakes in the country’s oil fields, and it is understood that a possible plan is for the United States to acquire leases for several oil fields for 100 years. In addition, Venezuela is reportedly considering withdrawing from OPEC.
Pakistan stated that it has no obligation to comply with the US unilateral sanctions against Iran, and remains willing to expand trade exchanges with Iran.
As market enthusiasm for Korean large-cap tech stocks cools, emerging market stock volatility has fallen at the fastest pace in more than six years.
Kioxia and SanDisk reportedly plan to invest a total of about 31 billion dollars to expand memory chip production capacity in Japan, to alleviate the supply shortage of key AI data center components.
Benefiting from sharp volatility in global markets, Citadel Securities reportedly saw second-quarter trading revenue reach a record US$7.3 billion, up more than twofold year over year, with net profit surging over 250%.

Greater China News

The mudslide disaster on the China-Nepal border has caused at least 389 deaths, with more than 1,200 people missing. Chinese Premier Li Qiang rushed to the Tibet mudslide disaster area to direct disaster relief, and the central bank added a 5 billion yuan re-lending quota for Tibet to support agriculture and small enterprises.
CCTV: China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State Administration for Market Regulation and other authorities have launched a special action to improve automobile product quality, with key inspection points including the safety assurance capability of intelligent connected vehicles, etc.
European Commission President von der Leyen said that maintaining dialogue with China remains necessary, but the EU must be ready to use trade tools against China.
Vanke’s first-half revenue plunged 33%, losses widened to 14.95 billion yuan, close to the upper end of the company’s forecast range, and analysts say that despite the extension of 10 publicly offered bonds, liquidity pressure still persists.
China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesperson said that China is closely monitoring the tariff actions taken by the United States regarding the so-called “overcapacity” issue, and may take countermeasures.
Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan passed a drone bill, with total spending of 240 billion Taiwan dollars to be included in annual budgets over six years.
China plans to strengthen individual accountability for monopoly agreements, with relevant responsible persons subject to a maximum fine of 1 million yuan RMB.

European and US Markets Overview

US stocks: Major US indexes all rose; strong revenue outlooks from Nvidia and Salesforce boosted tech stocks.
The S&P 500 Index rose 0.72%, closing at 7730.99 points.
Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%, reported at 53569.44 points
The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.57%, to 26541.35 points.
Chinese concept stocks: The Golden Dragon China Index fell, with Yum China and Alibaba being the biggest drags on the index.
Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.74%, reported at 6183.99 points.
New York Mellon China ADR Index fell 1.66%, reported at 352.8 points.
Energy: Oil prices rose, and according to reports the White House has repeatedly told mediators it has no intention of restoring the terms of the memorandum of understanding reached with Iran in June.
WTI crude oil futures rose 1.58%, reported at 83.53 US dollars per barrel
Brent crude oil futures rose 2.12%, reported at 89.7 dollars/barrel
NYMEX natural gas futures rose 2.29%, reported at $2.907 per million British thermal units
Metals: Gold prices rose, as investors looked to Fed Chairman Warsh’s speech on Friday for clues on the direction of interest rates. Zinc prices pulled back from a four-year-plus high.
Spot gold rose 0.18% to 4599.15 USD/oz.
Silver spot rose 1.65%, quoted at 69.2465 USD/oz

📈 Market breadth: looking for top and bottom signals

S&P 500 market breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 40.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Nasdaq 100 Market Breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 50.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Hang Seng Index market breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 40.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Broad-Based Index

✅ Strong sectors/assets: Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted, seven major tech giants, Nasdaq 100.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: S&P Small Cap, non-U.S. developed markets, S&P equal weight.

Factor Style

✅ Strong sectors/assets: growth stocks, social sentiment stocks, low-volatility defensive stocks.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: small-cap stocks, value stocks, shareholder return (high dividend).

📝 Market Summary

Market style is relatively mixed, with no extreme one-sided style switch appearing; it is recommended to focus on the independent trends of individual sectors.

Cross-Asset Class

✅ Strong sectors/assets: Agriculture, Commodity Index, S&P 500.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: Long-term bonds (TLT), 7-10 Year Treasury Bond, Short-term bonds (SHY).

🛑 Market Risk Dashboard

VIX (fear index): 14.51 | Skew (black swan index): 57.46
Current market status: Normal — volatility is in a normal range, suitable for trend strategies.

Economic Data Schedule

07:30: Japan July unemployment rate (estimated at 2.5%, previous value 2.5%)
07:30: Japan August Tokyo excluding fresh food consumer prices year-on-year (estimate 1.8%, previous value 1.7%)
14:45: France second-quarter GDP seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter final value (forecast 0.2%, preliminary 0.2%)
20:30: Canada second quarter GDP seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualized rate (estimated at 3.4%, previous value -0.1%)
22:00: U.S. August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value (estimate 51, preliminary 51)

Central Bank and Government Developments

22:00: Federal Reserve Chair Warsh delivers a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank annual meeting.
23:55: European Central Bank Executive Board member Schnabel speech

Greater China Stock Market Focus

Auto stocks: China launches a special action to improve automotive product quality, supervising safety assurance capabilities.
Shimao Group (813 HK): Shimao Group faces a winding-up petition in Hong Kong, with the first hearing date set for November 11.
Alibaba (9988 HK): Alibaba Cloud said it has begun offering services via its first cloud region in Brazil.
WuXi AppTec (2359 HK), WuXi XDC (2268 HK): WuXi AppTec sold over 53.52 million shares of WuXi XDC it held through a block trade, with a transaction amount of approximately HK$3.92 billion.
Kingsoft (3888 HK), Xiaomi Group (1810 HK): Xiaomi’s stake in Kingsoft rose from 7.97% to 8.14%
China National Building Material (3323 HK): China National Building Material first-half net loss 829.5 million yuan
Akeso (9926 HK): Akeso’s first-half net loss 424.2 million yuan

Today’s Key US Stock Earnings

Announcement Date 2026-08-27: RY, MRVL, TD, CM, ADSK, WDAY, DG, AFRM, DLTR, ULTA, RBRK, BURL, IREN, ESTC, HQY, S, BILI

Part 2: Core Assets Battle Map

2.1 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 277 points
📏 30-day average: 392 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 21:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

2.2 Hang Seng Index (HSI)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 184 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 306 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 09:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

📍 Current price: 25403
🎯 Upside resistance (short-selling defense line): 25463 | 25806 | 25674
🛡️ Lower support (long position defense line): 25380 | 25301 | 25130
💡 Upside breakout path: if it holds at 25463 👉 target 25541
💡 Downward break path: If it loses 25380 👉 test 25301

2.3 Gold Futures (Gold)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 65 points
📏 30-day average: 82 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 20:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

Kira Trader Daily Report — 2026-08-26

Kira | StockNote — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 00:05:59 GMT

Publication date: 2026-08-26 | Author: KiraTrader

Part 1: Headline Summary

US PCE inflation mild; NVIDIA revenue outlook strong; Zhipu mysterious AI model

Federal Reserve’s favored key inflation indicator met expectations, real consumer spending stalled. Nvidia’s fiscal 2028 revenue outlook far exceeded Wall Street expectations, shares surged in after-hours trading. Putin is reportedly preparing to escalate the war in Ukraine. Apple will release its first foldable phone early next month. Flash floods at the Nepal-China border have caused at least 100 deaths, hundreds missing. Zhipu confirmed that the mysterious AI model Ox Alpha originates from the company.

International News

U.S. core PCE price index gains in July met expectations, and inflation-adjusted consumer spending stalled, providing a reason for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged. The market will focus on Federal Reserve Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting on Friday.
The United States’ second-quarter GDP grew at an annualized quarter-over-quarter rate of 1.5%, with consumer spending and non-residential fixed investment revised upward.
NVIDIA expects 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028, far exceeding analyst expectations. The strong outlook eased market concerns that the momentum of AI spending growth is weakening, and the stock surged in after-hours trading.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that Iran and Oman reached an agreement on the distribution of revenues from the Strait of Hormuz. Although Trump reiterated that the strait is free of mines, US allies reportedly privately warned that the 80 to 150 mines laid by Iran have not been completely cleared.
Putin is reportedly preparing to escalate the war against Ukraine, with more and more Russian officials believing nuclear weapons may ultimately be used. Lithuania’s president said the U.S. CIA director’s surprise visit to Moscow on Tuesday was likely aimed at easing regional tensions.
Apple is scheduled to hold its most important product launch of the year on September 9, which will unveil the first foldable-screen iPhone, as well as high-end models iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. IDC predicts that shipments of this foldable-screen iPhone will exceed 10 million units in its first year on the market.
Anthropic reportedly agreed to pay Nscale $45 billion to rent AI computing power. Investment firm Kimmeridge said that half of the data centers planned in the U.S. may face risk of delay or cancellation.
Meta reached a settlement with multiple U.S. states over the social media harm case, and will pay up to approximately 18 billion dollars.
It is understood that the industry alliance platform Nordic Compass is considering integrating the current stock exchanges of the Nordic countries into a unified Nordic exchange to attract more capital and IPO.

Greater China News

A violent flash flood on the Nepal-China border has killed at least 100 people, with hundreds more missing, including citizens of several countries. Tibet’s Gyirong County was affected, possibly making it one of China’s deadliest natural disasters so far this year.
Trump signed an emergency order on Wednesday prohibiting the use of some foreign-made energy equipment in the U.S. power grid; Chinese manufacturers may be affected.
Zhipu said that its new AI model Ox Alpha, which rapidly topped the online usage rankings, is the next-generation version of its GLM series models, has been deployed on domestic AI chip clusters, and has a per-token cost comparable to NVIDIA GPUs.
Alibaba releases the latest Qwen series model Qwen3.8-Flash, which can significantly reduce AI training and inference costs.
Reuters: Moonshot AI is in talks with Microsoft, Amazon and Google over revenue-sharing agreements to let these companies deploy its Kimi K3 model.
MiniMax上半年營收同比激增近三倍，分析師預計全年增幅將達到360%。據報DeepSeek今年1-7月實現營收4.75億元人民幣，約為2025年營收的10倍
CCTV: Chinese Premier Li Qiang conducted research in Heilongjiang and Jilin, calling for ensuring a stable and secure grain supply.
Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee Ka-chiu will announce the first five-year plan at the Legislative Council meeting on 9/16, subsequently delivering the Policy Address.
The boundary issue talks between China and India reached an 8-point outcome consensus, with both sides agreeing to establish a demarcation expert group and a border control working group, and to add two new border defense military liaison hotlines.

European and US Markets Overview

U.S. stock market: S&P 500 index basically flat, Nvidia’s fiscal 2028 revenue outlook greatly exceeded expectations, stock price surged after hours
S&P 500 index basically flat, reported at 7675.7 points.
Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.21%, reported at 53463.88 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.08%, reported at 26130.2 points.
Chinese concept stocks: Golden Dragon China Index fell, with NetEase and Yum China the biggest drags on the index.
Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.61%, reported at 6230.03 points.
New York Mellon China ADR Index declined 0.51%, to 358.75 points.
Energy: Oil prices fell slightly as traders assess the situation in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war.
WTI crude oil futures fell 0.16% to 82.23 US dollars/barrel.
Brent crude oil futures fell 0.84%, reported at $87.84 per barrel.
NYMEX natural gas futures rose 2.6%, reported at $2.842 per million British thermal units
Metals: Copper prices halted three consecutive gains, as the dollar strengthened and the short squeeze in the copper market eased. Gold prices pulled back from three-month highs.
Spot gold fell 1.42%, reported at 4591.07 USD/oz.
Silver spot fell 0.78%, reported at 68.123 dollars per ounce.

📈 Market breadth: looking for top and bottom signals

S&P 500 market breadth (proportion of components above 20MA): 45.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Nasdaq 100 market breadth (proportion of constituents above 20MA): 65.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Hang Seng Index market breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 40.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Broad-Based Index

✅ Strong sectors/assets: S&P Mid Cap 400, S&P Equal Weighted, Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: Russell 2000 (small-cap), global stock markets, non-US developed markets.

Factor Style

✅ Strong sectors/assets: shareholder return (high dividend), momentum stocks, high volatility stocks.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: high short-interest-ratio stocks, high-quality stocks, social sentiment stocks.

📝 Market Summary

Market style is relatively mixed, with no extreme one-sided style switch appearing; it is recommended to focus on the independent trends of individual sectors.

Cross-Asset Class

✅ Strong sectors/assets: Agriculture, US Dollar Index, Natural Gas.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: 7-10 Year Treasury Bond, Gold, Copper.

🛑 Market Risk Dashboard

VIX (fear index): 15.21 | Skew (black swan index): 58.53
Current market status: Normal — volatility is in a normal range, suitable for trend strategies.

Economic Data Schedule

09:30: China’s July year-on-year profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide (previous value was 15.1%)
16:00: Taiwan July business cycle indicator (previous value is 41)
20:30: US July advance goods trade balance (estimated at a deficit of 100.5 billion dollars, previous was a deficit of 101.4 billion dollars)
20:30: U.S. initial jobless claims last week (estimated at 208,000, previous at 206,000)

Central Bank and Government Developments

19:30: European Central Bank releases July policy meeting minutes
22:00: U.S. Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks
27th: Bank of Korea interest rate decision (estimated at 3%, previous value 2.75%)
27th: Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino Ryozo speech
27th-29th: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting

Greater China Stock Market Focus

Apple supply chain: Apple’s September 9 product launch event is expected to unveil its first foldable-screen iPhone. IDC forecasts that this foldable-screen iPhone will ship over 10 million units in the first year after launch.
Electrical equipment concept stocks: Trump signed an emergency order prohibiting the U.S. power grid from using some foreign-made energy equipment, Chinese manufacturers may be affected.
Agricultural stocks: Chinese Premier Li Qiang conducted research in Heilongjiang and Jilin, requiring ensuring stable and secure grain supply.
Zhipu (2513 HK): Zhipu stated that the new AI model Ox Alpha that quickly topped the online usage leaderboard is a new-generation version of its GLM series models, has already been deployed on domestic AI chip clusters, and its per-token cost is on par with NVIDIA GPU.
Alibaba (9988 HK): Alibaba released the latest model in the Qwen series, which can significantly reduce AI training and inference costs.
MiniMax (100 HK): MiniMax’s first-half revenue surged nearly threefold year-on-year, and analysts expect full-year growth to reach 360%.
R&F Properties (2777 HK): The court ruled that R&F Properties repay the principal and interest to Jiujiang Bank in respect of the directed debt financing instruments.
WuXi XDC (2268 HK): shareholder STA Pharmaceutical Hong Kong is, according to sources, placing 53.5 million WuXi XDC shares at HK$73.23 per share.
Zhenro Properties (6158 HK): Zhenro Properties first half net loss 8.31 billion yuan
Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK): Mengniu Dairy’s first-half revenue exceeded estimates
Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Hansoh Pharmaceutical’s first-half net profit exceeded estimates.

Today’s Key US Stock Earnings

Announcement date 2026-08-26: NVDA, CRWD, SNPS, A, VEEV, TCOM, WSM, OKTA, NTNX, SJM, LI, URBN, ANF

Part 2: Core Assets Battle Map

2.1 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 199 points
📏 30-day average: 398 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 21:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

2.2 Hang Seng Index (HSI)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 273 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 311 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 09:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

📍 Current price: 25635
🎯 Upside resistance (short-selling defense line): 25857 | 25763 | 25706
🛡️ Lower support (long position defense line): 25477 | 25379 | 25587
💡 Upward breakout path: If it firmly holds 25654 👉 look toward 25706
💡 Downward break path: if 25587 is lost 👉 test 25477

2.3 Gold Futures (Gold)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 68 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 84 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 20:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

Kira Trader Daily Report — 2026-08-25

Kira | StockNote — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 00:05:06 GMT

Publication date: 2026-08-25 | Author: KiraTrader

Part 1: Headline Summary

US-Canada tariff war escalates; NVIDIA earnings imminent; Jack Ma increases stake in Alibaba.

Iran and Oman discussed setting up a temporary joint maritime corridor to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Canada announced it would double tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum products to 50%. Nvidia will report earnings after the market close on Wednesday, with revenue expected to continue growing substantially, and Wall Street is focused on details of its capital deployment. It is learned that Jack Ma recently bought more than 600 million Hong Kong dollars of Alibaba shares, and Joe Tsai increased his stake for the second consecutive day.

International News

The foreign ministers of Iran and Oman discussed a temporary framework aimed at restoring shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, including establishing a temporary joint maritime corridor and implementing a mine-clearing project. According to reports, the two sides plan to negotiate and determine a new permanent shipping lane within 30 to 60 days.
Satellite imagery shows that crude oil loading activities at Iraq’s export facilities in the Persian Gulf increased markedly on Monday, or indicating that oil flows in that region are recovering.
The war of words between Trump and Canadian officials escalated, claiming to consider renaming Canada’s Lake Ontario to “Lake America”.
Boston Fed president said that if more evidence shows inflation easing toward the 2% target, he supports keeping interest rates unchanged for now. Richmond Fed president said that if U.S. debt continues to mount, a day of reckoning will eventually come, but it is difficult to predict when.
NVIDIA will release quarterly results after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday; analysts generally predict its revenue growth will continue to lead most peers, but Franklin Templeton’s fund manager believes the market will focus on NVIDIA’s capital deployment details and how it maintains spending plans.
Morgan Stanley: AI-related off-balance-sheet commitments of five hyperscale cloud providers including Alphabet, along with Nvidia and Broadcom, total more than $3.1 trillion; Alphabet and Amazon’s second-quarter free cash flow has fallen below zero.
The Conference Board reported that U.S. consumer confidence fell to a seven-month low in August, as views on the business environment and employment prospects deteriorated. Additionally, last month’s new-home sales fell to a six-month low, with high mortgage rates suppressing demand.
OpenAI said its self-developed all-new Jalapeno chip outperforms NVIDIA’s existing product line in tests, and it plans to begin using the chip to support AI models later this year.
Apple released upgraded Mac mini and Mac Studio desktop computers, warming up for the new iPhone, with pre-orders starting Tuesday and going on sale in stores on September 22.
Japan’s total national debt service in the next fiscal year is expected to reach a record 230 billion U.S. dollars, and the total government budget request will for the first time exceed 130 trillion yen.
With investors’ enthusiasm for AI trading cooling, coupled with regulators stepping up measures to curb demand, South Korean leveraged ETFs linked to chipmakers saw outflows close to US$1 billion this month.
White House says it will take the largest-scale action in history, revoking U.S. visas of up to 200,000 foreigners seeking asylum.

Greater China News

China’s Ministry of Finance plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy precisely and effectively, and the deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission said that in the second half of the year, greater efforts should be made to unleash the potential of domestic demand.
Regarding the United States’ actions to isolate Iran, China expressed opposition to illegal unilateral sanctions not authorized by the UN Security Council, implying it will not give up cooperation with Iran.
Alibaba chairman Joe Tsai bought company shares for the second consecutive day, and it is understood that Jack Ma also recently bought over HK$600 million of Alibaba shares, showing support for the AI strategy.
Yu Yongding, former member of the monetary policy committee of China’s central bank, said current dollar assets are no longer safe, and China should gradually reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and other dollar assets.
U.S. congressional China-hawk lawmakers attack Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley for serving as sponsors for Shein’s Hong Kong IPO next month.
Chinese Foreign Minister met with India’s Special Representative; the two countries will seek a fair, reasonable, and mutually acceptable comprehensive settlement of the boundary issue.
Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission stated that it plans to allow securities firms to handle foreign-currency financing when conducting entrusted trading of foreign securities (i.e., sub-brokerage business).

European and US Markets Overview

US stock market: Tech stocks strengthened and boosted the broader market, as the market awaits NVIDIA’s earnings report.
S&P 500 index rose 0.32%, reported 7677.28 points
Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%, reported at 53577.4 points.
Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.66%, at 26151.3 points
Chinese concept stocks: The Golden Dragon China Index rose, with NetEase and Kanzhun contributing the most to the index.
Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.11%, reported 6268.26 points.
The New York Mellon China ADR Index rose 1.22% to 360.58 points.
Energy: Crude oil futures fell sharply, as new diplomatic efforts revived market optimism that the Iran war will not escalate.
WTI crude oil futures fell 3.12%, reported at 82.36 dollars per barrel.
Brent crude oil futures fell 3.89%, reported at 88.58 dollars/barrel
NYMEX natural gas futures fell 0.43% to 2.77 US dollars per million British thermal units.
Metals: London copper hit another record closing high, with traders focused on US monetary and trade policies and signals of tighter supply. As inflation concerns eased, gold prices extended gains.
Spot gold rose 0.11%, reported at 4657.17 dollars per ounce.
Silver spot fell 0.4%, reported at 68.659 dollars per ounce.

📈 Market breadth: looking for top and bottom signals

S&P 500 market breadth (percentage of constituent stocks above 20MA): 50.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Nasdaq 100 breadth (percentage of constituent stocks above 20MA): 55.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Hang Seng Index market breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 50.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Broad-Based Index

✅ Strong sectors/assets: emerging markets, non-US developed markets, global stock markets.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: S&P Small Cap, S&P Mid Cap 400, S&P Equal Weight.

Factor Style

✅ Strong sectors/assets: social sentiment stocks, high volatility stocks, high short interest ratio stocks.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: small-cap stocks, low-volatility defensive stocks, shareholder returns (high dividends).

📝 Market Summary

Market style is relatively mixed, with no extreme one-sided style switch appearing; it is recommended to focus on the independent trends of individual sectors.

Cross-Asset Class

✅ Strong sectors/assets: Long-term bonds (TLT), 7-10 Year Treasury Bond, Short-term bonds (SHY).
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: US Dollar Index, Commodity Index, crude oil.

🛑 Market Risk Dashboard

VIX (fear index): 15.45 | Skew (black swan index): 58.99
Current market status: Normal — volatility is in a normal range, suitable for trend strategies.

Economic Data Schedule

09:30: Australia July consumer price index year-on-year (estimate 3.3%, previous 3.8%)
20:30: US July personal income month-over-month (estimate 0.2%, prior 0.2%)
20:30: U.S. July personal spending month-on-month (estimate 0.1%, previous 0.3%)
20:30: U.S. July core personal consumption expenditures price index month-over-month (estimated 0.2%, prior 0.1%)
20:30: U.S. July durable goods orders month-on-month preliminary (estimated at 0.5%, previous 0.5%)
20:30: U.S. second-quarter GDP seasonally adjusted annualized quarter-over-quarter revised value (estimate 1.5%, preliminary 1.5%)

Central Bank and Government Developments

10:00: China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology holds a press conference on the relevant situation of fully implementing the 15th Five-Year Plan and accelerating the promotion of new industrialization.
18:10: European Central Bank Executive Board member Cipollone speech
23:45: US Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks

Greater China Stock Market Focus

Apple supply chain: Apple released upgraded Mac mini and Mac Studio, warming up for the new iPhone
Alibaba (9988 HK): Alibaba chairman Joseph Tsai bought company shares for the second consecutive day; it is understood that Jack Ma also recently bought more than 600 million Hong Kong dollars of Alibaba shares, showing support for the AI layout.
Leapmotor (9863 HK): Leapmotor expects to achieve its delivery target of 1 million vehicles this year and lowers its full-year earnings outlook.
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Laopu Gold’s first-half revenue and net profit growth both slowed, highlighting sensitivity to the gold price cycle.
China Taiping (966 HK): China Taiping’s first-half net profit was HK$12.87 billion, compared with HK$6.76 billion in the same period last year.

Today’s Key US Stock Earnings

Announcement Date 2026-08-25: BMO, BNS, INTU, ZM, SMTC, DKS, GGAL, BZ, VIPS

Part 2: Core Assets Battle Map

2.1 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 261 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 411 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 21:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

2.2 Hang Seng Index (HSI)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 349 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 319 points
📢 Trading suggestion: ample volatility, suggest trend-following breakout trading.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 09:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

📍 Current price: 25642
🎯 Upside resistance (short-selling defense line): 25857 | 26008 | 25945
🛡️ Lower support (long position defense line): 25477 | 25379 | 25587
💡 Upward breakout path: if it stabilizes at 25654 👉 look to 25685
💡 Downward break path: if 25587 is lost 👉 test 25477

2.3 Gold Futures (Gold)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 71 points
📏 30-day average: 85 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 20:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

Kira 每周 AI 產業深度觀察 Kira's Weekly In-Depth Observation of the AI Industry

Kira | StockNote — Tue, 25 Aug 2026 04:22:26 GMT

I. Overall Viewpoint: Enterprise Deployment Unlocks Revenue Ceiling, Capex Panic Gradually Subsides

The current market is in a volatile rebound pattern. While a direct V-shaped reversal in the short term is unlikely, downside potential has been effectively capped. Looking at a longer timeframe, the market index still possesses the momentum to launch a new major upward wave. In terms of sector allocation, we maintain a bullish view on the three core sectors of hardware, software, and power, but the structural differentiation in the market requires us to focus more on individual high-elasticity stocks.

Core Logic Shift

Past market concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure (Capex) in 2028 are significantly easing, driven by the successful commercialization of AI in enterprises:

Enterprise-level Deployment Breakthrough: Palantir’s US commercial revenue increased significantly by +149% year-on-year, marking the first time its Ontology architecture has successfully solved the engineering challenges of AI Agents in a production environment.

Diversified Demand: Cloud service providers (CSPs) are extremely optimistic about demand from non-AI Lab enterprise customers. The accelerating rate of computing power consumption on Microsoft Azure and AWS signifies that AI revenue is no longer solely reliant on model training by a few top-tier labs. The industry is transitioning from an “arms race” to a positive cycle of “productivity monetization.”

II. US AI Computing Power Leasing: Supply Shortage Window from H2-2026 to H1-2027

As large models shift from pre-training to large-scale inference, the computing power shortage will reach its most severe window from the second half of 2026 to the first half of 2027.

1. Nebius (NBIS) — A Dark Horse in Highly Flexible Computing Power Leasing

Increased Pricing Power: Short-term contract prices for up to 6 months are expected to rise to $50 million/MW/year by the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027.

Profitability Explosion:

2027E EBITDA: $3.1 billion (corresponding to approximately 25x EV/EBITDA)

2028E EBITDA: $11 billion (valuation quickly digested to 7x EV/EBITDA)

Profit Margin Expansion: EBITDA Margin is expected to jump significantly from 20.5% to 31.1%.

2. Cerebras (CBRS) — High-Speed Inference Leader (Right-Side Trading Opportunity)

Performance Momentum: Q2 revenue, gross margin, and net margin all exceeded guidance. Management forecasts Q2 2027 revenue growth exceeding +260% year-over-year.

Long-Term Valuation Digestion: Non-GAAP profits are projected to reach $2.8 billion/$7.2 billion/$13 billion in 2028-2030, corresponding to P/E ratios of 19x/7x/4.5x respectively.

Capacity Expansion Path: Data center capacity will expand from 130MW at the end of 2026 to 2GW+ by 2030 (2GW locked in by the OpenAI framework protocol alone).

Transaction Strategy and Risks: The commercialization loop is still in the verification stage; it is recommended to strictly adhere to right-side trading. In September, pay attention to TSMC’s 2027 production schedule verification; the Q3 results in November will be a key point for revising the full-year 2026 guidance upwards.

3. Dell (DELL) — Dual-Engine Growth of On-Premises Deployment and Neocloud

Neocloud Explosion: Revenue from related customers is expected to surge from $15.7 billion to $42 billion (YoY +70%).

Abundant Orders: Current backlog reaches $51.3 billion, with the pipeline size several times that of the backlog (historical conversion rate approximately 20%).

Core Customer Base Ties: CoreWeave accounts for approximately 70% of its procurement, xAI for 50-60%, and Aran nearly 100%.

Profit Forecast: Expected net profit for FY27/28/29 is $11.9 billion/$16.1 billion/$22.2 billion (corresponding to PE ratios of 27x/19x/14x).

III. Power Infrastructure: Focusing on the 4.2GW Behind-the-Meter Power Gap for xAI

The ultimate battleground in the computing power race is electricity. xAI will add approximately 8GW of computing power in 2026, corresponding to approximately 10GW of electricity demand, of which up to 70% must rely on behind-the-meter power. Currently, only 2.8GW has been secured, leaving a huge power supply gap of 4.2GW, which constitutes the strongest catalyst for the entire power equipment sector.

Comparison of Core Power Equipment Targets

Target Role Positioning 2027–2028E Key Indicators and Valuation Core Catalysts and Highlights F-Tech (FTI) Core Elasticity Variables 2027E EBITDA $450 million–$750 million, corresponding to a PE ratio of approximately 10.5x 100 Model 1 units delivered at full capacity can provide 2.5GW; testing and external certification completed in September–October are key catalysts; SpaceX’s gas turbine blade development is expected to reshape the 2028 landscape Bloom Energy (BE) Fuel Cell After-meter Power Supply 2028E EV/EBITDA is 4.4x (benchmark) / 9.8x (optimistic) Oracle Jupiter project is expected to officially commence operation in the second half of 2027 GEV / BKR heavy-duty gas turbine and grid equipment Book-to-bill mostly greater than 2 Order delivery cycles significantly extended to 2030 High Long-Term Revenue Visibility

IV. Storage Sector: Valuation Logic Shifts to “Shareholder Yield”

The market’s traditional pricing logic for the storage industry (simply focusing on spot/contract price increases) is becoming ineffective. With the coverage ratio of Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) increasing from 1/3 to 1/2, manufacturers’ strategies have shifted to “volume for price,” and ASP increases may be lower than extremely optimistic expectations (NAND prices are expected to correct by 5% in 2027, and DRAM prices are expected to correct in 2028).

Future excess returns will come from a revaluation of “free cash flow and shareholder yield.”

SanDisk (SNDK) Case Study

Exceptional Profit Margins: FY28–30 is expected to maintain an exceptionally high level of 80% gross margin and 75% net margin.

Strong Buyback Intention: Commitment to returning 100% of excess cash flow to shareholders.

Return on Investment Calculation: Based on a market capitalization of $245 billion, the annualized shareholder return is projected to steadily climb from 10% to 15% between 2027 and 2030, with cumulative share buybacks expected to reach 56% of market capitalization over five years.

Stock Selection Priority: Leading US storage companies possess a stronger and more mature tradition of share buybacks and CEO incentive mechanisms. Priority allocation: SanDisk/Micron (MU) > SK Hynix/Samsung.

V. Kira Trading View and Recent Catalyst Calendar

[September] TSMC 2027 Production Schedule Verification (Cerebras Capacity Bottleneck Confirmed)

│

[September-October] F-Tech Model 1 Completes Testing and Certification (4.2GW Power Supply Shortage Catalyst)

│

[November] Cerebras Q3 Earnings Conference (2026 Full-Year Guidance Upward Revision)

│

[2026 H2 - 2027 H1] Computing Power Leasing Shortage Window Fully Opens (Nebius / Dell Earnings Release)

Focusing on Cash Returns for Underlying Assets: The storage sector abandons the linear price increase game and shifts to allocating US storage assets (SNDK, MU) with high buyback rates and high free cash flow.

Seizing Certainty Bottlenecks on the Growth Side: Electricity and downstream power supplies (FTI, BE) are the narrowest bottlenecks hindering computing power expansion, possessing the highest odds and event catalyst certainty.

Layered approach to computing power leasing: For a stable base position, choose DELL (enjoying the dual benefits of Neocloud and on-premises enterprise deployment); for a more volatile position, focus on NBIS; for the high-risk, high-return CBRS, strictly await a breakout on the right side and the release of production data.

> Disclaimer: This article represents only personal research and market observation and does not constitute any specific investment advice. The market is risky; trading requires independent thinking and strict risk control.

一、總體觀點：企業落地打開收入天花板，Capex 恐慌逐步降溫

當前市場處於震盪反彈格局。儘管短期直接走出 V 型反轉的難度較大，但下行空間已被實質封死，拉長時間維度，大盤指數仍具備發動新一波主升浪的動能。板塊配置上，硬件、軟件、電力三大核心方向維持多頭看法，但行情的結構分化要求我們更聚焦於個別高彈性品種。

核心邏輯轉變

市場過去對 2028 年 AI 資本支出（Capex）可持續性的擔憂正在顯著緩解，關鍵驅動在於企業端 AI 商業化正式跑通：

企業級落地突破：Palantir 美國商業收入同比大幅增長 +149%，標誌著其 Ontology 架構首次在生產環境中成功解決了 AI Agent 的工程化難題。
需求主體多元化：雲計算服務商（CSP）對非 AI Lab 企業客戶的需求展望極其樂觀，微軟 Azure、AWS 的算力消耗速率持續加速，意味著 AI 收入不再單一依賴少數頂級實驗室的模型訓練，產業正從「軍備競賽」邁入「生產力變現」的正向循環。

二、美國 AI 算力租賃：H2-2026 至 H1-2027 的供給短缺窗口

隨著大模型從預訓練轉向大規模推理，算力短缺將在 2026 下半年至 2027 上半年迎來最緊繃的窗口期。

1. Nebius (NBIS) — 高彈性算力租賃黑馬

定價權提升：預計 2026 年底至 2027 年初，6 個月內的短期合約價格將推升至 5,000 萬美元 / MW / 年。
盈利爆發力：
- 2027E EBITDA：31 億美元（對應約 25 倍 EV/EBITDA）
- 2028E EBITDA：110 億美元（估值迅速消化至 7 倍 EV/EBITDA）
- 利潤率擴張：EBITDA Margin 預期將從 20.5% 大幅躍升至 31.1%。

2. Cerebras (CBRS) — 高速推理龍頭（右側交易品種）

業績動能：Q2 營收、毛利率與淨利率均超指引，管理層預告 2027 Q2 營收同比增幅將超過 +260%。
遠期估值消化：2028-2030 年 Non-GAAP 利潤預計達 28 億 / 72 億 / 130 億美元，對應 PE 分別為 19 倍 / 7 倍 / 4.5 倍。
產能擴張路徑：數據中心容量由 2026 年底的 130MW 擴充至 2030 年的 2GW+（單 OpenAI 框架協議即鎖定 2GW）。
交易策略與風險：商業化閉環仍在驗證階段，建議嚴格執行右側交易。9 月關注台積電 2027 年排產驗證，11 月 Q3 業績會為上修 2026 全年指引的關鍵節點。

3. Dell (DELL) — 本地部署與 Neocloud 雙輪驅動

Neocloud 爆發：相關客戶營收預計由 157 億美元飆升至 420 億美元（同比 +70%）。
訂單充沛：目前在手訂單（Backlog）達 513 億美元，Pipeline 規模為 Backlog 的數倍（歷史轉化率約 20%）。
核心客群綁定：CoreWeave 佔其採購約 70%，xAI 佔 50-60%，Aran 接近 100%。
盈利預測：FY27/28/29 預期淨利潤分別為 119 億 / 161 億 / 222 億美元（對應 PE 為 27 倍 / 19 倍 / 14 倍）。

三、電力基礎設施：聚焦 xAI 4.2GW 表後電源缺口

算力競賽的終局是電力。xAI 在 2026 年新增約 8GW 算力，對應約 10GW 的電力需求，其中高達七成必須依賴表後電源（Behind-the-Meter）。目前僅鎖定 2.8GW，尚存在 4.2GW 的巨大供電缺口，這構成了整個電力設備板塊最強烈的催化劑。

核心電力設備標的對比

標的角色定位2027–2028E 關鍵指標與估值核心催化劑與看點F-Tech (FTI)核心彈性變量2027E EBITDA 4.5億–7.5億美元，對應 PE 約 10.5 倍100 台 Model 1 滿載交付可提供 2.5GW；9–10 月完成測試與外部認證為關鍵催化；SpaceX 燃機葉片研發有望重塑 2028 年格局Bloom Energy (BE)燃料電池表後供電2028E EV/EBITDA 為 4.4 倍（基準）/ 9.8 倍（樂觀）Oracle Jupiter 項目預計於 2027 下半年正式投運GEV / BKR重型燃機與電網設備Book-to-bill 多數大於 2訂單交付週期顯著拉長，2030 年長期營收能見度極高

四、存儲板塊：估值邏輯轉向「股東回報率」

市場對存儲行業的傳統定價邏輯（單純盯住現貨/合約價漲幅）正在失效。隨著長期協議（LTA）覆蓋比例從 1/3 上升至 1/2，原廠策略已轉向「以量換價」，ASP 漲幅或將低於極端樂觀預期（NAND 預計 2027 年價格回調 5%，DRAM 預計 2028 年回調）。

未來的超額收益將來自「自由現金流與股東回報率（Shareholder Yield）」的重估。

SanDisk (SNDK) 案例剖析

極致利潤率：FY28–30 預計維持 80% 毛利率、75% 淨利率 的超高水準。
強烈回購意願：承諾將 100% 超額現金流回饋股東。
回報率測算：以 2,450 億美元市值測算，2027 至 2030 年的年化股東回報率將自 10% 穩步攀升至 15%，5 年累計回購規模預計達市值的 56%。
選股優先級：美系存儲龍頭具備更強烈且成熟的股份回購傳統與 CEO 激勵機制，配置優先級上：SanDisk / 美光 (MU) > SK 海力士 / 三星。

五、Kira 交易觀點與近期催化日曆

[9月]  台積電 2027 排產驗證 (Cerebras 產能瓶頸確認)
  │
[9-10月] F-Tech Model 1 完成測試與認證 (4.2GW 供電缺口催化)
  │
[11月] Cerebras Q3 業績會 (2026 全年指引上修預期)
  │
[2026 H2 - 2027 H1] 算力租賃短缺窗口全面開啟 (Nebius / Dell 業績釋放)

底層資產聚焦現金回報：存儲板塊拋棄線性漲價博弈，轉向配置高回購、高自由現金流的美系存儲資產（SNDK、MU）。
成長端把握確定性瓶頸：電力與表後電源（FTI、BE）是阻礙算力擴張的最窄瓶頸，具備最高的賠率與事件催化確定性。
算力租賃分層操作：穩健底倉選 DELL（享受 Neocloud 與企業本地部署雙重紅利）；高彈性部位關注 NBIS；高風險高回報標的 CBRS 嚴格等待右側突破與排產數據落地。

> 免責聲明：本文僅代表個人研究與市場觀察，不構成任何具體投資建議。市場有風險，交易需獨立思考與嚴格風控。

Kira Trader Daily Report — 2026-08-24

Kira | StockNote — Tue, 25 Aug 2026 00:06:10 GMT

Publication date: 2026-08-24 | Author: KiraTrader

Part 1: Headline Summary

Trump’s plan to isolate Iran; US may impose additional tariffs on China; Junzheng H-share listing.

The US demanded that relevant countries cut off commercial ties with Iran, otherwise they will face Washington sanctions. It is reported that the US Treasury may use cash reserves to buy back government bonds. Trump threatened to double tariffs on Canadian cars to 50% starting next year, and the US is reportedly planning to impose a 7.5% overcapacity tariff on China before Xi Jinping visits the US in September. Semiconductor company Junzheng Co. will debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday.

International News

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced an economic isolation plan against Iran, requiring relevant countries to cut off commercial ties with Tehran or else face unilateral sanctions. Iran said it is fully prepared for this.
The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned about 60 individuals and entities related to Iran, dozens of which are from mainland China and Hong Kong. The Treasury also authorized the gradual termination of some transactions involving Iran.
Traders revealed that before the United States said it would implement an economic isolation plan against Tehran, Iran’s oil exports to Asia had almost completely stopped, and related cargo prices rose to their highest level in years.
Reportedly, the U.S. Treasury may tap cash reserves to fund expanded Treasury buybacks, but Bessent gave no further signal on Monday about adjusting debt management practices.
Citadel Securities said the Treasury’s buyback of US Treasuries is similar to financial repression, which may weaken the dollar and exacerbate inflation; institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo believe this move will be difficult to lower long-term US Treasury yields.
The U.S. reportedly plans to impose an additional 7.5% so-called overcapacity tariff on Chinese goods before Xi Jinping’s visit to the U.S. next month, a move that will bring the tariff rate on China during Trump’s second presidential term back to around 20%.
US-Canada trade dispute further intensifies, Trump threatens to double tariffs on Canadian automobiles and components to 50% starting next year.
Former Bank of Japan official Seiji Adachi said the central bank is likely to raise its benchmark interest rate in September and hike again as early as January next year.
After Trump ordered reducing the scale of this month’s US-South Korea joint military exercises, South Korea said the United States, citing the Middle East situation, postponed the Double Dragon joint military exercise originally scheduled for September.
The Trump administration proposed expanding the scope of the H-1B visa fee of about 100,000 US dollars, and the new policy will apply to almost all new visa applicants, not just those outside the United States.

Greater China News

China’s central bank renewed 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) at a reduced scale in August and pre-announced overnight reverse repo operations at the end of the month. Analysts said that as subsequent government bond supply increases, the central bank is expected to need to provide more long-term liquidity support.
Chinese state media People’s Daily has unusually published daily commentary articles in succession since Saturday, arguing that excessive attention should not be paid to short-term economic fluctuations, implying that Beijing is not uneasy about the deepening economic slowdown.
PaiPaiWang data show that China’s quantitative funds rebounded after a sharp drop in July; quantitative funds using the so-called index enhancement strategy were 2.9 percentage points higher than the average return of stock indices.
Xiaomi launched a self-developed AI mobile chip named Xuanjie O3, whose 3nm manufacturing process is clearly ahead of Huawei. In addition, Xiaomi will release the smartphone 18 Fold and 18 Pro series in September.
ByteDance will reportedly merge the teams of programming platform Trae and AI agent development tool “Coze” into the Doubao super app, and launch a standalone app named “Doubao Work” as early as this week.
Pinduoduo’s adjusted earnings in the second fiscal quarter beat expectations, but revenue growth disappointed Wall Street, and Pinduoduo ADR fell.
XPeng Group’s last quarter results and this quarter’s revenue and delivery volume outlook both missed expectations, with ADR plunging 8.5%. Its robotics subsidiary will raise 900 million dollars from investors such as Alibaba, Tencent.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the EU’s existing and proposed trade measures against China may cover about 27% of China’s annual nominal exports to the EU.
Alibaba Chairman Cai Chongxin and CEO Wu Yongming collectively bought about 120 million Hong Kong dollars of Alibaba shares on Monday after the company’s share price fell sharply due to a share placement.
Chinese semiconductor company Junzheng Co., Ltd. will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday; the offering raised a total of 3.05 billion Hong Kong dollars, with an issue price of 100 Hong Kong dollars, and the retail tranche was oversubscribed by more than 920 times.
Chinese AI chip design company Enflame Technology initiated preliminary inquiry for its STAR Market IPO, planning to issue more than 43,030,000 shares.
Taiwan prosecutors reportedly indicted a senior manager at NVIDIA, accusing him of participating in a group suspected of smuggling advanced AI chips to mainland China.
Taiwan cybersecurity research institution TeamT5 stated that Chinese hackers, after integrating DeepSeek and other open-source AI models into cyberattack operations, are increasing their attack intensity.
China’s military reportedly has developed a hypersonic glide vehicle capable of launching air-to-air weapons, which can pose a threat to high-value targets such as airborne command aircraft several thousand kilometers away.

European and US Markets Overview

U.S. stock market: S&P 500 index fell, chip stocks were sold off again, Nvidia recorded seven consecutive declines.
S&P 500 Index fell 0.28%, to 7652.86 points
Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.26%, to 53417.16 points
The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.76%, reported at 25980.19 points.
China concept stocks: The Golden Dragon China Index fell, with NetEase and NIO dragging the index the most.
Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.66% to 6199.19 points
Bank of New York Mellon China ADR Index fell 1.37%, reported 356.25 points.
Energy: Crude oil futures retreated as traders weighed the unprecedented U.S. sanctions aimed at isolating Iran.
WTI crude oil futures fell 2.35%, reported at 85.01 USD/barrel
Brent crude oil futures fell 2.65%, reported at 91.89 USD/barrel.
NYMEX natural gas futures rose 0.32%, reported at 2.782 dollars/million British thermal units
Metals: Gold price climbed to a more than three-month high, as bold US intervention in the bond market stoked concerns about the country’s fiscal policy and the possibility of the dollar being hit. London copper futures closed at a record high.
Spot gold rose 1.07%, quoted at 4652.22 USD/oz.
Spot silver fell 0.08%, reported at 68.938 US dollars per ounce.

📈 Market breadth: looking for top and bottom signals

S&P 500 market breadth (percentage of constituent stocks above 20MA): 50.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Nasdaq 100 Market Breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 50.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Hang Seng Index market breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 30.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Broad-Based Index

✅ Strong sectors/assets: S&P Equal Weight, seven major tech giants, S&P Small Cap.
🔻 weak sectors/assets: emerging markets, S&P Mid Cap 400, Nasdaq 100.

Factor Style

✅ Strong sectors/assets: low-volatility defensive stocks, high-quality stocks, shareholder returns (high dividends).
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: community sentiment stocks, value stocks, high volatility stocks.

📝 Market Summary

Market style is relatively mixed, with no extreme one-sided style switch appearing; it is recommended to focus on the independent trends of individual sectors.

Cross-Asset Class

✅ Strong sectors/assets: Long bonds (TLT), 7-10 Year Treasury Bond, US Dollar Index.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: S&P 500, crude oil, Commodity Index.

🛑 Market Risk Dashboard

VIX (fear index): 15.85 | Skew (black swan index): 60.20
Current market status: Normal — volatility is in a normal range, suitable for trend strategies.

Economic Data Schedule

14:00: Germany’s second-quarter GDP seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter final value (estimate was 0.2%, preliminary was 0.2%)
16:00: Taiwan July industrial production year-on-year (estimated at 20.65%, previous value 22.95%)
16:00: Germany August Ifo Business Climate Index (estimated at 87.2, previous value 86.6)
16:30: Hong Kong July exports YoY (estimated at 45%, previous value 53.4%)
16:30: Hong Kong July imports year-on-year (estimated at 42.2%, previous value 45.4%)
21:00: US June FHFA House Price Index month-over-month (estimated at 0.2%, prior 0.3%)
22:00: US August Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (estimated at 7, previous 5)
22:00: US July new home sales seasonally adjusted annualized rate (estimate 620,000, previous 628,000)
22:00: US August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (estimated at 90.2, previous value 90.8)

Central Bank and Government Developments

09:30: Australia’s central bank August monetary policy meeting minutes
20:00: U.S. Richmond Fed President Barkin speech
25th: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will discuss China-India border issues in Beijing with India’s National Security Advisor

Greater China Stock Market Focus

Junzheng Co., Ltd. (300223 CH, 3223 HK): Junzheng Co., Ltd. will list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Tuesday at an issue price of HK$100, total proceeds of HK$3.05 billion, and the retail tranche was oversubscribed by more than 920 times.
R&F Properties (2777 HK): R&F Properties expects a first-half loss of 5 billion yuan to 5.5 billion yuan, and will announce interim results on August 27.
Xiaomi Group (1810 HK): Xiaomi launched a self-developed AI mobile chip named Xuanjie O3, and CEO Lei Jun said the company will release the smartphone 18 Fold and 18 Pro series in September.
Alibaba (9988 HK): After the company’s share price fell sharply due to a share placement, the chairman and the CEO together bought about 120 million Hong Kong dollars of Alibaba stock.
Tencent (700 HK): ByteDance reportedly will merge AI tools into the Doubao super app to counter competitors such as Tencent.
XPeng Group (9868 HK): XPeng’s last quarter results missed expectations; the company announced that its robot subsidiary will raise 900 million dollars from investors including Alibaba, Tencent.
Kaisa Group (1638 HK): Kaisa expects first-half net loss not exceeding 9.5 billion yuan
China Railway Signal & Communication (3969 HK): China Railway Signal & Communication’s first-half net profit was 1.47 billion yuan, and 1.62 billion yuan in the same period last year.
Leapmotor (9863 HK): Leapmotor’s first-half net profit was lower than estimates

Today’s Key US Stock Earnings

Publication date 2026-08-24: PDD, XPEV, GRFS

Part 2: Core Assets Battle Map

2.1 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 276 points
📏 Last 30-day average: 413 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 21:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

2.2 Hang Seng Index (HSI)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 201 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 319 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 09:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

📍 Current price: 25599
🎯 Upside resistance (short-selling defense line): 25857 | 26008 | 25945
🛡️ Lower support (long position defense line): 25462 | 25379 | 25587
💡 Upward breakout path: if holds 25685 👉 target 25857
💡 Downside break path: if it loses 25587 👉 test 25545

2.3 Gold Futures (Gold)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 59 points
📏 30-day average: 85 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 20:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

Kira Trader Daily Report — 2026-08-23

Kira | StockNote — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:04:37 GMT

Release date: 2026-08-23 | Author: KiraTrader

Part 1: Headline Summary

US-Canada trade talks break down; Nvidia products reportedly rise in price; Alibaba’s huge placement

The US imposed a 50% tariff on about US$20 billion of Canadian goods, and Canada announced reciprocal retaliation. Washington is expected to announce specific measures to economically isolate Iran on Monday. It is understood that many of the Nvidia AI servers shipping early next year will see price increases of more than 15%. Goldman Sachs said weak domestic demand dragged China’s economic growth down to about 4% at the start of this quarter, warning that cyclical weakness could solidify into structural damage. Alibaba plans to place new shares in Hong Kong to raise HK$80 billion.

International News

U.S.-Canada trade talks broke down at the last moment; Washington began imposing 50% tariffs on about 20 billion dollars’ worth of Canadian goods over the weekend, and Canada immediately announced reciprocal retaliation, imposing retaliatory tariffs on an equal amount of U.S. imported goods starting September 8.
The United States will announce a plan on Monday to economically isolate Iran and its trading partners, and relations with China may again be stirred up because of the oil issue. Iran’s president called on hardliners to end the war against the US while there is still dignity.
Bridgewater founder Dalio advises investors to reduce bond positions, allocate about 10% to 15% of their portfolio to gold and a small amount of Bitcoin, to hedge against the risk of a US debt crisis he believes will erupt in about three years.
Minneapolis Fed president said that U.S. Treasury market functioning and liquidity are both normal, and that the recent surge in yields is unlikely to affect monetary policy discussions; he did not say he would again call for a rate hike in September, but expressed a lack of confidence that inflation would return to target level in the short term.
People familiar with the matter said that due to soaring memory chip costs, many of Nvidia’s AI servers shipping early next year will see price increases of more than 15%, with the exact increase depending on which generation of chips and storage configuration is used.
Nvidia reportedly agreed to pay $6 billion to obtain a license to use Poolside AI’s model, while also investing an additional $1 billion in the startup at a pre-money valuation of $12 billion.
Anthropic hires Amir Salek, founder of Google’s custom chip project, to prepare for its entry into the self-developed chip field.
People familiar with the matter revealed that Nscale, an AI cloud computing company headquartered in London, is seeking to raise up to US$3 billion through a US IPO, with a launch as early as September.
Apple reportedly will cut more than 200 employees, involving Siri and Vision Pro-related teams, to shift its resource focus toward artificial intelligence and new devices.
Trump announced that for the next 90 days, up to 300,000 metric tons of products used to produce ground beef will be exempt from out-of-quota tariffs, intending to lower beef prices before the midterm elections. But ranchers and Republican lawmakers from agricultural states warned that this move could harm the long-term stability of the U.S. livestock industry.

Greater China News

Goldman Sachs expects insufficient demand to drag on China’s economic growth, slowing it further to about 4% early this quarter, and warns that if the Chinese government does not implement fundamental reforms to unleash domestic demand, cyclical weakness may solidify into structural damage.
A People’s Daily commentary article said that, from the perspective of quality and efficiency and a longer-term view, China’s economic development demonstrates strong resilience and vitality, and one cannot be fixated on the high and low of individual quarterly and monthly indicator data.
China’s broad fiscal expenditure in July fell 4.4% year on year, with the decline narrowing significantly from June’s 11.9%, indicating that the intensity of fiscal tightening may be starting to weaken.
Alibaba plans to place new shares in Hong Kong, raising 80 billion Hong Kong dollars, to invest in full-stack artificial intelligence capabilities. Famous investor Michael Burry said he would only reconsider buying Alibaba if its stock price halves, criticizing that issuing additional shares has become the company’s new paradigm.
DeepSeek released experimental multimodal model DeepSeek-V4-Flash-Vision-Exp, which performed close to Anthropic’s high-end model Opus 4.8 in multimodal agent capability tests.
Yangtze Memory’s STAR Market listing application was accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and it plans to raise 33 billion yuan to upgrade production lines and strengthen R&D.
TikTok and its Chinese parent company ByteDance agreed to pay 400 million dollars to settle a lawsuit regarding children’s privacy filed by the U.S. Department of Justice during the Biden administration.
At least nine automakers, including Tesla, Xiaomi, and Leapmotor, recalled about 4.27 million electric vehicles in China due to door handle safety hazards, of which Tesla recalled nearly 3 million vehicles.
The Hang Seng Index Company announced after a quarterly review that it will include Hua Hong Grace and Weichai Power in the Hang Seng Index, and the number of constituent stocks will increase from 93 to 95, effective from September 7.

European and American Markets at a Glance:

U.S. stock market: Strong U.S. business activity data drove the broader market to rebound, and the Nasdaq 100 Index halted its five-day losing streak.
S&P 500 index rose 0.4%, to 7674.37 points
Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%, reported at 53277.01 points
The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.4%, reported at 26180.45 points.
China Concept Stocks: The Golden Dragon China Index rose, and NetEase and Yum China contributed the most to the index.
Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.4%, reported 6303.83 points.
Energy: Crude oil prices rose for a second consecutive week, as traders awaited the US announcement of related actions aimed at isolating Iran’s economy.
WTI crude oil futures fell 0.88%, reported at 87.06 US dollars per barrel.
Brent crude oil futures rose 0.65%, reported at 94.39 US dollars per barrel.
NYMEX natural gas futures rose 1.46%, reported at 2.773 dollars per million British thermal units.
Metals: Zinc prices rose to the highest level in more than four years; the market showed signs of tightening supply. As the “devaluation trade” makes a comeback, gold rose to a three-month high.
Spot gold rose 1.9%, reported at 4603.07 dollars per ounce.
Spot silver rose 1.3%, quoted at 68.9948 dollars per ounce

📈 Market breadth: looking for top and bottom signals

S&P 500 market breadth (proportion of components above 20MA): 45.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Nasdaq 100 breadth (percentage of constituent stocks above 20MA): 55.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Hang Seng Index market breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 50.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Broad-Based Index

✅ Strong sectors/assets: S&P Equal Weight, non-U.S. developed markets, Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: S&P Mid Cap 400, seven major tech giants, Nasdaq 100.

Factor Style

✅ Strong sectors/assets: shareholder return (high dividend), low-volatility defensive stocks, high-volatility stocks.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: value stocks, momentum stocks, high short interest ratio stocks.

📝 Market Summary

Market style is relatively mixed, with no extreme one-sided style switch appearing; it is recommended to focus on the independent trends of individual sectors.

Cross-Asset Class

✅ Strong sectors/assets: Gold, Copper, S&P 500.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: Short-term bonds (SHY), long-term bonds (TLT), 7-10 Year Treasury Bond.

🛑 Market Risk Dashboard

VIX (Fear Index): 15.13 | Skew (Black Swan Index): 59.51
Current market status: Normal — volatility is in a normal range, suitable for trend strategies.

Economic Data Schedule

16:00: Taiwan July unemployment rate (estimated at 3.3%, previous value 3.33%)
20:30: U.S. July Chicago Fed National Activity Index (estimate -0.05, previous value -0.02)

Central Bank and Government Developments

24th: The U.S. may announce a plan to economically isolate Iran and its trading partners.

Greater China Stock Market Focus

Alibaba (9988 HK): Alibaba plans to place new shares in Hong Kong, raising HK$80 billion, for investment in full-stack AI capabilities. This financing plan has been criticized by prominent investor Michael Burry.
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Zijin Mining’s first-half net profit was 39.17 billion yuan, compared with 23.29 billion yuan in the same period last year.
China Coal Energy (1898 HK): China Coal Energy’s first-half IFRS net profit was 8.19 billion yuan RMB, compared with 7.33 billion yuan in the same period last year.
Baiyunshan (874 HK): Baiyunshan’s first-half net profit was 2.10 billion yuan, versus 2.52 billion yuan for the same period last year.
China Tobacco Hong Kong (6055 HK): China Tobacco Hong Kong’s net profit in the first half of the year was HK$627.0 million, compared with HK$706.4 million in the same period last year.
Ronshine China (3301 HK): Ronshine China’s July contract sales RMB 254.8 million

Today’s Key US Stock Earnings

Publication date 2026-08-24: PDD, XPEV, GRFS

Part 2: Core Assets Battle Map

2.1 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 262 points
📏 30-day average: 415 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 21:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

2.2 Hang Seng Index (HSI)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 201 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 319 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 09:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

📍 Current price: 25895
🎯 Upside resistance (short-selling defense line): 25919 | 26008 | 26107
🛡️ Lower support (long position defense line): 25857 | 25436 | 25503
💡 Upside breakout path: if it holds steady at 25919 👉 looks toward 26008
💡 Downward break path: if it loses 25857 👉 test 25711

2.3 Gold Futures (Gold)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 17 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 83 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 20:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

Marvell Technology (MRVL US) FY2027 Q2 業績前瞻

Kira | StockNote — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 08:19:46 GMT

一、核心摘要與交易觀點 (TL;DR & Desk Take)

業績發布時間：2026 年 8 月 27 日盤後（美東時間 20:30 UTC / 業績電話會 20:45 UTC）。
市場預期基準：彭博賣方共識預期 Q2 營收為 27.08 億美元（Q/Q +12.0%, Y/Y +35.0%），經調整後 EPS 為 $0.93，完全符合管理層指引區間（營收 $27 億 ±5%、Non-GAAP EPS $0.88–$0.98）。
買方預期：受 8 月 19 日 Google TPU 深度合作協議提振，買方對資料中心業務（Data Center）的 Q/Q 增長預期已拉升至 high-teens 至 low-20%，略高於管理層先前指引的「超過 high-teens」。
估值與評級：現價 $251.01，對應 FY27E 共識 EPS ($4.05) 之遠期市盈率為 48.1x。賣方評級呈壓倒性看多（45 買入 / 5 持有 / 0 賣出），共識目標價 $271.85（隱含 +8.3% 空間）。

二、核心財務與 KPI 預估矩陣

三、重點業務分項與營運動能

1. 資料中心（佔比達 80%）與客製化晶片 (Custom XPU)

增長指引：FY2027 全年資料中心營收預計年增 ~50%，客製化 XPU 業務年增 >20%，並預計在 FY2028 實現翻倍以上成長。
Google 戰略大單（2026/08/19）：擴大商業協議涵蓋 TPU 推論加速器、NIC、存儲控制器及近記憶體計算；Google 獲得 ~5,900 萬股認股權證（行使價 $206.58，總值約 $122 億），每採購 $5 億晶片分批解鎖，大幅鎖定長線訂單。
微軟項目：Tier-1 XPU 項目（市場普遍指向 Microsoft Maia 300）進度如期，預計 2026 年 9 月登場，有望在 FY2028 帶來超過 $7 億營收貢獻。

2. 光學互連 (Interconnect) 與網路交換 (Switching)

互連業務：FY2027 增長指引自 >50% 上調至 >70% Y/Y，受惠於 800G/1.6T 光模組、AEC（主動電纜）與 Retimer 需求爆發。
交換機業務：FY2027 營收預計突破 $6 億（年增翻倍），受 51.2T 放量及 102.4T 旗艦晶片帶動，FY2028 年化目標瞄準 >$10 億。

3. 供應鏈、庫存與現金流

庫存健康度：Q1 FY27 庫存天數為 97.2 天（Q/Q 減少 5.5 天），DIO 為 110.2 天，反映下游需求強勁吸收。
產能預付款：FY2027 承諾約 $10 億產能預付款（鎖定台積電 A14 等先進製程、載板、先進封裝及光學產能）。
現金流：Q1 FY27 自由現金流 (FCF) 達 $4.831 億（Q/Q +86.2%, Y/Y +125.6%），創近 6 季新高。

四、業績情境分析與交易對策 (Valuation & Scenario Triage)

我KIRA指標是看近$300,7月前的高位

五、電話會議焦點與未來 90 天催化劑

營收加速拐點：管理層先前預告 Q3 FY27 季度營收將提前跨越 $30 億大關，關注業績會上對 Q3 指引是否兌現該節奏。
毛利率走勢：關注客製化 ASIC 產品佔比提高對毛利的稀釋效應，以及高毛利光學互連產品能否有效平抑該衝擊。
Google 認股權證進度：市場密切關注 Google 採購額觸發第一階段 $5 億認股權證解鎖的預期時程。
新品進展：
- 2026 年 9 月：微軟 Maia 300 晶片正式發表。
- 2026 年 Q4：Bravera SC6（PCIe Gen 6 NVMe SSD 控制晶片）樣品出貨。
- 1.6T 光學架構規模化商用節奏與 Celestial AI 矽光子整合進度。

奇拿筆記-下周大市推演 8月24日

Kira | StockNote — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 07:45:11 GMT

下週市場處於「超級宏觀數據 + 科技巨頭單點極致催化 + 國債供給潮」的三重共振期。週二（8/26）是全週乃至全月的核心樞紐日，日內將連續經歷宏觀通脹定價（PCE/GDP）與微觀 AI 敘事檢驗（NVDA 財報）。

以下為下週市場走勢與跨資產聯動的深度推演：

本周主要是生物技術板塊拉升(MNRA)_，5 日累積漲幅高達 +109.46%，年初至今 (YTD) 回報達 +332.02%。

這波極端行情主要由「基本面歷史性突破」疊加「史詩級軋空 (Short Squeeze)」雙重驅動：

Phase 3 臨床數據達標： 8 月 19 日，Moderna 與 Merck 聯合宣布，其針對黑色素瘤的個人化 mRNA 癌症疫苗 (intismeran autogene) 結合 Keytruda 免疫療法，在 Phase 3 (INTerpath-001) 試驗中成功達到了無復發存活期 (RFS) 與無遠端轉移存活期 (DMFS) 的主要終點。
管線重估： 這是全球首個在三期臨床中獲得成功的 mRNA 癌症療法，證明了該技術在新冠疫苗之外的巨大商業潛力。
空頭踩踏： 財報發布前，市場對其新冠疫苗營收衰退極度悲觀，累積了大量空單。週三 (8/19) 利多落地後，股價單日飆升 177%，導致空頭面臨高達 55 億美元的帳面虧損，強大的回補買盤推動股價放量暴漲。
預計至 2026 年底將握有約 47 億至 52 億美元現金，管理層明確表示公司正進入「成長期」，並可能展開併購。只要後續 FDA 審批進展順利，其在腫瘤領域的估值重塑將為長線股價提供強力支撐。

其他板是黃金和衛生保健..都不是大市直上的科技/ai板塊!

IBB - iShares Biotechnology ETF (生物技術): 今日顯著造好 (ZS Live: +4.55)，顯示短期資金強烈流入。
GDX - VanEck Gold Miners ETF (黃金礦探): 今日顯著造好 (ZS Live: +3.94)，顯示短期資金強烈流入。
XLV - Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (衛生保健): 今日顯著造好 (ZS Live: +3.24)，顯示短期資金強烈流入。

二、下週中港美核心催化劑與推演

下週將是由「宏觀流動性測試」與「中美科技/金融財報」共同主導的關鍵一週。在美國財政部長 Bessent 的回購干預效應於上週五消退後，市場焦點將嚴厲轉向利率定價與企業盈利質量。

核心宏觀主線

傑克遜霍爾 (Jackson Hole) 的預期博弈： 儘管市場預期週五 Fed Warsh 的主題演講不會釋放過多前瞻指引，但在近期美債殖利率劇烈波動的背景下，任何關於「中性利率水準」的邊際評論都可能觸發算法交易的劇烈反應。
$1,830 億美債供給壓力測試： 2Y ($69bn)、5Y ($70bn) 與 7Y ($44bn) 的密集發行，將直接檢驗市場在拋售潮後的承接意願。尤其短端殖利率近期在 Steepener (陡峭化) 交易中被買入，拍賣的尾部利差 (Tail) 將是關鍵的流動性指標。
週二雙重核彈（Macro + Micro）： 8:30 AM 的 PCE / GDP 二修與盤後 4:20 PM 的 Nvidia 財報，將在 24 小時內完成對「降息路徑」與「AI 資本開支（Capex）可持續性」的雙重定價。 8 月 19 日發布的 Fed 紀要顯示，官員們在上次會議中其實「傾向於加息 (favored a rate hike)」，只是後來溫和的 7 月 CPI 才讓 9 月加息的選項下桌。這意味著下週的 PCE 若有任何反彈，殺估值的力道會比想像中更猛。
暗藏的非農修訂「黑天鵝」： 週四的非農年度基準初步修訂（前值高達 -911k）若再度顯著下修，將迅速激化市場對勞動力市場實質放緩的擔憂。
期權結構與波動率異動： 雖然現貨 VIX 處於 ~16.01 的相對溫和區間，但 VVIX 處於 95 高位且 9 月 24-strike Call 累積了 16 萬張持倉，顯示機構資金正透過深度虛值合約為尾部跳空（Tail Risk）預先對沖。大家要小心, 長倉要收米降leverage!

時間軸節奏推演

週一（8月24日）：聚焦中國消費與蘋果供應鏈

焦點財報： 拼多多 (PDD)、小鵬汽車 (XPEV)、立訊精密、建滔積層板。
Kira 觀點： 雖然週一宏觀數據較為清淡，但中概股的重量級財報將定調市場情緒。拼多多的業績將為中國「消費降級」趨勢提供最真實的數據支撐，而立訊精密則能讓我們一窺蘋果供應鏈近期的拉貨動能。

週二（8月25日）：流動性前哨戰與醫藥板塊檢驗

宏觀與事件： 美國 8 月消費者信心指數、香港 7 月貿易數據、美債 2 年期拍賣（690億美元）。
焦點財報： 美股板塊有 Intuit (INTU)、Zoom (ZM) ；中港市場則迎來藥明生物與信達生物。
Kira 觀點： 短端殖利率近期在陡峭化交易中被大量買入，週二高達 690 億美元的 2 年期美債標售將直接測試市場承接力。個股方面，藥明生物的財報將是檢驗地緣政治擔憂消化後，其實質訂單修復情況的試金石，我是看好的,詳細在另一文章會提及~

週三（8月26日）：全週最重要樞紐日（雙重核彈）

宏觀與事件： 美國 8 月 PCE 與核心 PCE 物價指數、美國 Q2 GDP 第二次估算、美債 5 年期拍賣（700億美元）。
焦點財報： Nvidia (NVDA)、Salesforce (CRM)、CrowdStrike (CRWD)、Synopsys (SNPS)、惠普 (HPQ)；港股有安踏體育。

NVDA

$5000 億美元的 AI 基建融資與 OpenAI 擔保： Nvidia 確認將為 OpenAI 位於俄亥俄州的 PORTS-Pike 科技園區（高達 8 GW 算力）提供最高約 1,050 億美元的擔保。此外，Nvidia 正與 Apollo、Blackstone、BlackRock GIP 等華爾街巨頭組建一個高達 5,000 億美元的 AI 晶片基礎設施融資財團。這將是電話會議上的絕對焦點。
Vera Rubin (VR200) 產品線爆發： 下一代 VR200 GPU 預計在本季度開始爬坡，且機構預測其 Vera CPU 在 2026 年的營收將達到約 200 億美元，直接與 x86 競爭對手平起平坐。
地緣政治監管風險： 美國政府正在審查中國 AI 企業透過海外合法渠道獲取 Nvidia 晶片的情況，這將是財報會上的潛在利空提問。
期權定價與機構分歧： NVDA 財報的期權隱含波動率為 ±4.5%，這意味著約 2,500 億美元的市值震盪。UBS 極度樂觀，預期營收將超標 30-40 億美元

Salesforce (CRM)

雖然 Agentforce 趨勢強勁，但 UBS 警告，管理層可能會因為客戶回饋褒貶不一而下調下半年的營收加速預期，這是一個潛在的雷點。

Kira 觀點： 這是下週的絕對高潮。宏觀 PCE 數據將與盤後 Nvidia 財報正面交鋒。Nvidia 的指引不僅決定半導體板塊的生死，更將直接驅動納指期貨夜盤走勢。同時，CRM 與近期處於風口浪尖的 CRWD 將反映企業端 IT 資本開支的真實景氣度。

週四（8月27日）：AI 網路傳輸與美國底層消費

宏觀與事件： 美國初請失業金人數、日本央行 Himino 演講、歐洲央行會議紀要、美債 7 年期拍賣（440億美元）。
焦點財報： Marvell (MRVL)、Workday (WDAY)、Autodesk (ADSK)，以及折扣零售板塊如 Dollar General (DG)、Dollar Tree (DLTR)、Ulta Beauty (ULTA)。
8 月 6 日 Datadog (DDOG) 因毛利率不及預期暴跌 18–20%，引發了軟體板塊的同情性拋售（拖累 CRM、WDAY 等下跌 3-6%）。因此，下週的軟體股財報將被視為「板塊是否已經企穩」的終極測試。
CrowdStrike (CRWD)： 預期其將迎來「比以往更大的超預期表現 (bigger-than-usual beat)」，且華爾街在 8 月份甚至上調了其 EPS 預期。

Kira 觀點： 在 Nvidia 開牌後，MRVL 將作為 AI 網路傳輸（光模塊/ASIC）的重要延伸拼圖。宏觀層面，除了緊盯初請失業金人數以防衰退恐慌重燃，DG 與 DLTR 這類折扣零售商的財報，將是評估美國底層消費者購買力邊際變化的最佳窗口。

週五（8月28日）：港股決戰日與非農基準拆彈

宏觀與事件： 聯儲局 Warsh 在傑克遜霍爾 (Jackson Hole) 的主題演講、美國密大消費者情緒終值、非農初步基準修訂 (NFP Revisions)、日本東京 8 月 CPI。
焦點財報： 美團、比亞迪 (BYD)、內銀股（農行、建行、中行、郵儲行）、神華、美的。
Kira 觀點： 港股在期指結算前夕迎來財報海嘯。美團與 BYD 分別代表中國互聯網與高端製造的最強 Alpha，而內銀股的集中放榜將徹底揭示當前淨息差 (NIM) 壓力與資產質量的底牌。美國方面，需高度警惕非農基準修訂，若出現大幅下修，可能會在週末前引發劇烈的避險調倉與長端利率急跌。

核心推演情境矩陣

情境宏觀組合 (PCE / 非農修訂)NVDA 財報與指引跨資產預期表現概率評估情境

A：金髮女孩 (Goldilocks)Core PCE ≤3.3%，通脹受控；就業數據穩健營收超預期，Blackwell 指引強勁，打消延期擔憂

• 美股： SPX / NDX 向上突破前高

• 波動率： VIX 迅速回落至 14-15（Vol Crush）

45%情境 B：風格輪動 (Rotation)Core PCE 符合預期；宏觀無重大意外業績超預期但指引僅「符合預期」，出貨利多出盡

• 美股： 資金自晶片股撤出，輪動至羅素2000、公用事業、金融

• 波動率： 科技板塊 IV 回落，大盤指數平盤震盪

30%情境 C：滯脹擔憂 (Stagflation Shock)Core PCE >3.3% 且價格指數高企；非農修訂大幅下調財報平淡或受制於供應鏈與出口限制

• 美股： 股債雙殺，成長股與高槓桿企業承壓，乜7都跌，準備定現金撈底

• 波動率： VIX 突破 20-22，觸發 9 月 24-call 兌現

15%情境 D：衰退恐慌 (Recession Scare)PCE 溫和，但週四非農基準大幅暴跌（> -1000k）業績符合預期，但宏觀 Capex 展望偏謹慎

• 美股： 週期股重挫，防禦板塊與黃金贏，繼續買金升就岩

• 波動率： 避險情緒抬頭，跨資產波動率上升10%

交易實務與風險應對建議

週二盤前至盤後的倉位曝險控制：
- NVDA 財報前的隱含波動率溢價極高，非方向性多頭應防範「業績超預期但 IV 暴跌（Vol Crush）」帶來的期權長倉虧損。
- 持有高 Beta 科技股部位者，宜在週二美股開盤前確認 PCE 數據後，利用價外 Put 或 Collar(sell 105% call ,buy 95% put)策略鎖定利潤。
盯緊美債拍賣尾部利差：
- 週二至週四美東時間下午 1:00 的國債標售結果是利率市場的晴雨表。若 2Y/5Y 標售得標利率顯著高於發行前交易利率（WI），意味著一級交易商承接吃力，需提防美股盤中出現利率驅動的跳水。即是打格仔,不要過夜
9 月份尾部避險持倉的提示信號：
- 目前 VIX 24 Call 的未平倉巨量合約構成短期上限壓制。若大盤因週二數據或財報出現單邊拋售導致現貨 VIX 突破 18–19，做市商的動態 Delta 對沖將轉為助跌動能，如果仲有拎ai related股票,嚴格執行SL紀律。

Kira Trader Daily Report — 2026-08-20

Kira | StockNote — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 00:04:23 GMT

Publication date: 2026-08-20 | Author: KiraTrader

Part 1: Headline Summary

US may further expand treasury bond buybacks; Shanghai property market new policy; Alibaba AI commercialization accelerates

US Treasury yields returned to high levels, and Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Treasury may further step up Treasury buyback efforts and will announce new fiscal measures in the near future. The United States will unveil next week a plan to isolate Iran’s economy, and China-US relations may be roiled again over oil issues. Switzerland and China reached a new free trade agreement. Shanghai launched a new round of housing purchase support measures. Alibaba’s quarterly profit declined, but AI cloud and computing power service revenue grew strongly.

International News

US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Treasury is prepared to further expand the scale of buybacks of longer-term government bonds, with the size possibly exceeding 4 billion dollars per operation. Additionally, the Trump administration will roll out a new fiscal measure in the coming days.
US Treasury yields returned to elevated levels, and Treasury buyback news failed to ease market concerns over the surge in government debt. JPMorgan and other institutions warned that the lack of predictability in the Treasury’s debt management strategy could ultimately lead to higher government borrowing costs.
The US will announce next Monday a plan to economically isolate Iran and its trading partners. As a major buyer of Iranian oil, China-US relations may again be roiled over oil issues.
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Trump’s threat to launch an economic war against Iran and its trading partners will not work, and called on all relevant parties to remain calm.
It is learned that Anthropic’s initial public offering scale is expected to match or even surpass the record set by SpaceX, and it will publicly submit IPO-related documents as early as the end of this month.
Broadcom is reportedly seeking more than 60 billion U.S. dollars in debt financing for an AI chip financing deal that will benefit companies such as Anthropic.
Due to rising borrowing costs, a U.S. index measuring housing affordability worsened for the first time since 2023.
Walmart’s last-quarter sales missed expectations, and US same-store sales growth hit a more than six-year low. Walmart’s stock price plunged more than 9%.
The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell slightly last week, and the labor market remained stable.
Bitcoin breaking above $70,000, U.S. Treasury yields declining, and Trump meeting with industry executives boost optimism.
Platform data shows that the number of international students applying to U.S. universities this fall decreased by about 10%, the largest drop in at least ten years.

Greater China News

Because AI-related costs continue to rise, Alibaba’s quarterly profit plummeted more than 75%, capital expenditure was nearly 10 billion US dollars, but Alibaba Cloud’s externally commercialized revenue grew 45%, and management said it should be able to recover the overall AI investment within three years. Alibaba ADR stock price opened low and climbed, reversing an early-session drop of more than 5%.
Ant Group’s profit in the three months to the end of March barely grew, as the company stepped up investment in artificial intelligence technology in healthcare, large language models, and payment services.
Shanghai launched a new round of home purchase support measures, relaxing the scope and withdrawal frequency of housing provident fund, and lowering the minimum down payment ratio for purchasing a second home outside the outer ring road from 20% to 15%.
China and Switzerland completed the upgrade negotiations of the free trade agreement, and the vast majority of goods, including watches and medicines, will be able to enter China tariff-free.
A research institution said that in July, sales of the top 25 luxury brands in the Chinese market fell by more than 10%, and under the impact of taxation, wealthy people’s willingness to consume weakened.
German finance minister accuses China of ignoring trade rules, citing many problems such as overcapacity and state subsidies, and calls for a tougher stance toward China.
China’s supply of key strategic metals to Japan remained at unusually low levels last month, with signs that the scope of export tightening is expanding.
JD.com submitted remedy commitments to the EU for its acquisition of German company Ceconomy, in response to regulators’ concerns over subsidies.
Pop Mart’s sales growth slowed significantly in the first half of the year, as the Labubu craze faded. The company warned that its target of 20% revenue growth for the full year may not be achieved, and plans to initiate a share buyback.
Taiwan’s July export orders recorded the fastest growth since March, the second-quarter current account surplus declined for two consecutive quarters, and AI-related investment credit under the financial account increased.
Fidelity International reportedly plans to exit its wholly-owned fund subsidiary established in China three years ago, because its business scale is far below target.

European and US Markets Overview

US stock market: S&P 500 index resumed its decline, the boost effect from Treasury buybacks faded, and Walmart’s disappointing earnings weighed on retail stocks’ performance.
The S&P 500 index fell 0.87%, closing at 7641.16 points.
Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.32%, reported at 52759.21 points.
Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.0%, reported at 26067.17 points.
Chinese concept stocks: The Golden Dragon China Index fell, with NetEase and TAL Education dragging the index the most.
Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.15%, to 6278.48 points
The Bank of New York Mellon China ADR Index fell 0.33% to 373.8 points.
Energy: Oil prices rose to the highest level in nearly a month, as the United States increased economic pressure on Iran.
WTI crude oil futures rose 2.33%, reported at 87.83 USD/barrel
Brent crude oil futures rose 2.36%, reported at 93.78 US dollars/barrel
NYMEX natural gas futures fell 2.88%, reported at 2.733 USD/million British thermal units.
Metals: Gold prices basically held steady. London copper futures edged down, with LME copper inventories expected to post the biggest weekly increase since 2020.
Gold spot basically flat, reported at 4516.58 USD/ounce
Spot silver rose 1.66%, quoted at 68.0882 USD/ounce

📈 Market breadth: looking for top and bottom signals

S&P 500 market breadth (percentage of constituent stocks above 20MA): 50.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Nasdaq 100 Market Breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 50.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Hang Seng Index market breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 40.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Broad-Based Index

✅ Strong sectors/assets: Emerging markets, non-US developed markets, Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: S&P 500, S&P equal weight, Russell 2000 (small-cap).

Factor Style

✅ Strong sectors/assets: high short interest ratio stocks, value stocks, social sentiment stocks.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: small-cap stocks, low-volatility defensive stocks, high-quality stocks.

📝 Market Summary

The market saw indiscriminate selling. Both growth stocks and defensive assets faced significant selling pressure, presenting a pattern of “everything falling together” — cash is king.

Cross-Asset Class

✅ Strong sectors/assets: Crude oil, Commodity Index, Silver.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: S&P 500, long-term bonds (TLT), 7-10 Year Treasury Bond.

🛑 Market Risk Dashboard

VIX (Fear Index): 16.01 | Skew (Black Swan Index): 61.19
Current market status: Normal — volatility is in a normal range, suitable for trend strategies.

Economic Data Schedule

07:30: Japan July Consumer Price Index year-on-year (estimated at 1.9%, previous value at 1.6%)
08:30: Japan August manufacturing PMI preliminary value (previous value 54.5)
08:30: Japan August services PMI flash (previous value is 51.2)
14:00: UK July retail sales month-on-month (estimate -0.5%, previous value 1%)
16:00: Eurozone August manufacturing PMI preliminary (forecast 51.8, previous 51.9)
16:00: Eurozone August services PMI preliminary (estimated 51.5, previous 51.7)
16:30: UK August manufacturing PMI preliminary (estimated at 51.5, previous value 51.9)
16:30: UK August services PMI preliminary (estimate 51.8, previous 52.1)
20:30: Canada June retail sales MoM (estimate 0.4%, previous 1%)
21:45: US August Manufacturing PMI preliminary (forecast 53.9, previous 53.9)
21:45: US August services PMI flash (estimated at 54, previous 54.6)
22:00: Eurozone August preliminary consumer confidence index (estimated at -16, previous -15.9)

Central Bank and Government Developments

10:00: China’s Ministry of Finance holds a press conference on the relevant situation of giving play to the role of proactive fiscal policy and promoting high-quality economic and social development.
21-22: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits South Korea and Indonesia

Greater China Stock Market Focus

Property stocks: Shanghai introduces a new round of property market support measures, relaxing the scope of use and frequency of withdrawal of the housing provident fund.
Luxury stocks: A research institution said that in July, sales of the top 25 luxury brands in the Chinese market fell by more than 10%, and under the impact of taxation, wealthy people’s willingness to consume weakened.
Alibaba (9988 HK): Due to the continued rise in AI-related costs, Alibaba’s quarterly profit plummeted by more than 75%, capital expenditures are close to 10 billion US dollars, but Alibaba Cloud’s external commercialization revenue grew 45%.
Ant Group’s profit in the three months to the end of March barely grew, as the company stepped up investment in artificial intelligence technology in healthcare, large language models, and payment services.
JD.com (9618 HK): JD has submitted remedy commitments to the European Union regarding its acquisition of Germany’s Ceconomy, in response to regulators’ concerns over subsidy issues.
Pop Mart (9992 HK): Pop Mart’s first-half sales growth slowed significantly, the company warned that its full-year revenue growth target of 20% may not be achievable, and plans to initiate share buybacks.

Today’s Key US Stock Earnings

Publication date 2026-08-20: WMT, BABA, NTES, ROST, FUTU, AEG

Part 2: Core Assets Battle Map

2.1 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current true range: 260 points
📏 30-day average: 422 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 21:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

2.2 Hang Seng Index (HSI)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 221 points
📏 30-day average: 363 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 09:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

📍 Current price: 25697
🎯 Upside resistance (short-selling defense line): 25857 | 25711 | 25743
🛡️ Lower support (long position defense line): 25436 | 25649 | 25503
💡 Upward breakout path: If it holds at 25711 👉 look to 25743
💡 Downward break path: if 25649 is lost 👉 test 25607

2.3 Gold Futures (Gold)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 91 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 83 points
📢 Trading suggestion: ample volatility, suggest trend-following breakout trading.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 20:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

【Kira 周會課】算力緊缺,電力告急與存儲邏輯切換

Kira | StockNote — Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:05:28 GMT

歡迎來到本週的 Kira 周會課。近期市場經歷了一波劇烈洗盤，很多朋友在私底下或者 Telegram 群裡問我大市是不是又要走 V 型反轉，或者是不是該全面防守。

從機構交易台的視角來看，我們當前的核心判斷是：市場維持「震盪反彈」格局。短期內雖然難現極端的 V 型反轉，但以 1–2 個季度的維度來看，仍有一波行情可期，當前位置繼續下跌的空間已經不大，整體維持看好。

各板塊目前呈現的是「輪動超跌反彈」——上一波重挫 40% 至 50% 的標的，底部普遍反彈了 20%–25%。在市場情緒尚不支持估值全面擴張的當下，追漲並非明智之舉。我們接下來的佈局重心，必須精選 Alpha，聚焦在硬件、軟件、電力這三大核心主線。

以下是本週我們深度梳理的幾個關鍵賽道與核心數據測算，供大家在接下來的交易與佈局中參考。

一、 AI 算力租賃：緊缺窗口下的價格彈性 (Nebius)

核心結論： 2026 年下半年至 2027 年上半年，算力租賃將處於明顯的短缺窗口，漲價趨勢會延續，而 2027 年第一季極可能是短期價格的頂部。

我們對 Nebius 的最新價格測算與財務預期如下：

合約價格走勢：
- 短約（≤6 個月）： 預計 2026 年底至 2027 年初將達到 5,000 萬美元/MW/年（當前 Q2 中位數約 4,200 萬，Q3/Q4 將繼續漲至約 4,500 萬，隨後會回歸接近中約水平）。
- 中約（1–3 年）： 當前約 2,000–2,500 萬美元，預計 2027 年 Q3 來到 2,300 萬，2028 年 Q4 將達 2,800 萬美元/MW/年。
- 長約： 當前約 1,200 萬美元，預計 2027 年底至 2028 年 Q4 將穩定在 1,500 萬美元/MW/年。
財務與估值彈性： 預估 2027/2028 年 EBITDA 分別為 31 億與 110 億美元，對應 margin 為 20.5% / 31.1%，EV/EBITDA 分別為 25x / 7x。這意味著 2028 年依然具備極大的估值彈性。
供給端現狀： 美國今年預計完工交付的 AIDC 不超過 10 GW。2027 年的新增算力主要來自 2026 完工的 CSP 自建項目、SpaceX 的 5 GW 綠色項目以及部分 Neocloud。
後續催化劑： NVIDIA 新的 Rubin 卡將於 2026 年 Q4 出貨，明年的大規模上量將對資源價格形成進一步的強力支撐。

二、 AI 晶片與伺服器：尋找右側交易與確定性

1. Cerebras — 關注右側交易窗口

Cerebras 第二季的收入、毛利率與淨利潤率全面超越指引，這在海外賣方的一致預期中並未被充分 pricing。

核心數據： 管理層指引 FY26 全年收入達 88–89 億美元；FY27 Q2 收入同比增長超過 260%。明年底數據中心容量目標高達 600 MW（此前市場預期僅約 480 MW）。
遠期空間（2030）： 預計 2026 年底裝機容量 130 MW（其中 OpenAI 佔 100 MW），到 2030 年將達 2 GW+（20 倍量級增長）。FY28/29/30 的 non-GAAP 預估利潤為 28 億 / 72 億 / 130 億美元，對應 PE 僅 19x / 7x / 4.5x。
Kira 策略建議： 估值雖吸引，但目前更適合做右側交易。建議等待某個季度出現明顯催化劑（如數據中心建設進度、客戶端正面反饋或性價比優勢確立）後再行加碼。

2. Dell — Neocloud 與企業本地端的雙輪驅動

作為 AI 伺服器 OEM 的絕對龍頭（市佔率 > 30%），Dell 的增長動能極為強勁。

訂單爆發： Neocloud 客戶（以 CoreWeave, xAI, Aran 為主）收入從去年的 157 億美元暴增至今年約 420 億美元，同比增長近 70%。目前 backlog 達 513 億美元，pipeline 更是 backlog 的數倍。
自建 ROI 吸引力： 企業本地 AI 市場是千億美元量級的 TAM。舉個真實案例，某企業去年月均雲端 AI 算力支出約 1,000 萬美元，今年 token 量暴增 3–5 倍，月成本飆至 3,000–5,000 萬美元；若自建 IDC 投入 3–5 億美元，大約 1 年即可覆蓋雲端年開支。
財務測算： FY27/28/29 淨利潤預估為 119 億 / 161 億 / 222 億美元，對應 PE 為 27x / 19x / 14x。

三、算力的盡頭是電力：xAI 的 4.2 GW 缺口博弈

要支撐龐大的算力，電力基建是下半場最大的瓶頸。明年新增算力最高約 8 GW IT，對應約 10 GW 的電力需求，其中 70%+ 需要依賴表後電源 (Behind-the-Meter)，電網側根本無力承載。

缺口現狀： 當前已鎖定/下單 2.8 GW，缺口高達 4.2 GW。
填補路徑：
- FTI： 目標明年交付 100 台 Model 1，全數交付等於 2.5 GW 產能。
- SpaceX 燃氣輪機： 正在自研最長葉片，若成功具備自產能力，2028 年將對行業產生巨大影響。
- 若上述自研或交付不及預期，市場可能被迫引入 GW 級的燃料電池方案。

四、國內基建與存儲邏輯切換

1. 國內算力租賃 (以協創數據為例)

受 BIS 監管影響，國內 H800 現貨價從 5 月的 600 萬人民幣飆升至 1,300 萬。但 BAT 與算力租賃商簽訂的 5 年閉口協議（約 800–1,000 萬/台）保障了 85% 的出租率。

回本模型： 以阿里 B300 萬卡集群為例，投資約 100 億人民幣，年租金收入可達 33 億（約投資額 1/3），3 年即可回本。配合違約金保障（20%–30%），盈利可見度極高。協創數據預估 2026 / 2027 淨利分別為 4.8 億 / 106.4 億人民幣，對應 PE 29x / 13x。

2. 存儲板塊 (SanDisk) — 從周期博弈到股東回報

存儲板塊的投資邏輯正在發生重大切換。純周期交易的資金開始離場，關注股東回報的長期資金正在進場。

SanDisk 指引： FY28–30 預計毛利率維持 80%、淨利率 75%（基於長協模式）。公司承諾 100% 超額現金用於股東回報。按當前市值測算，2027–2030 股東回報率將從 10% 升至 15%，5 年累計回購註銷將達到市值的 56%。
板塊排序： 美國存儲公司 > NAND/DRAM > HDD。存儲板塊企穩將對日韓股市及 MLCC、光纖等漲價線帶來正向刺激。

五、其他 Alpha 追蹤 (光模塊、PCB 與多模態)

光模塊 / 光纖： NVIDIA 官宣 CPO 交換機短期提振了 CPO 產業鏈情緒。光纖方面，9 月 3 日移動招標方案開標已被市場反映。光纖正處於強賣方市場，2026–2028 供不應求。建議關注中天（北美市場推進帶來預期差）。
PCB 景氣度： 上游漲價 + 下游擴產，未見負反饋。高端 AI 載板緊缺，日本味之素 9 月減產 30% 醞釀漲價，國內替代（華正新材、聯瑞新材）加速。生益科技（CCL 龍頭）預估 2027 利潤約 150 億人民幣，對應 23x 估值，具備配置價值。
軟件與多模態： Minimax H3 商業化帶來邊際改善，預期 2026 年底 ARR 可達 2.5–3 億美元。但當前尚未構成強烈反轉，建議繼續觀察兌現節奏。

📅 Kira 的交易日曆：後續關鍵催化劑

我們在未來幾個月需要密切盯緊以下時間節點：

2026 年 9 月： 移動光纖重新開標；日本 ABF 減產 30% 正式實施；MQ+Q 部方案測試結果公佈。
2026 Q3–Q4： Rubin 伺服器正常出貨；新 Rubin 卡集群 Q4 出貨並上量，將直接影響算力價格走勢。
2026 年 11 月： Cerebras Q3 業績會（關注是否再次上調指引）；台積電 2027 排產雙重確認。
2027 Q1： 算力租賃短約價格預期見頂時刻。
2027 H2 起： 密切觀察企業端 AI 加速落地的財報驗證數據。

市場在經歷修正後，盲目拋售的階段已經過去，現在比拼的是對底層數據的顆粒度掌握以及對供應鏈瓶頸（尤其是電力與高端封裝）的預判能力。

看完這週的硬核拆解，你目前個人的投資組合中，是更傾向於佈局具備定價權的硬件端（如 Dell / 存儲），還是準備押注算力租賃帶來的彈性 Alpha？歡迎在評論區或者 Telegram 群裡跟我交流。

Alibaba Q1 FY2027 earnings ahead

Kira | StockNote — Thu, 20 Aug 2026 05:29:04 GMT

1. Key Consensus vs. Buy-Side Whisper Benchmarks

The market is treating this print as the definitive test of the earnings trough thesis following Q4 FY26’s margin compression.

2. Core Drivers & Desk Catalysts

Cloud & AI Monetization: Cloud is the primary multiple-expansion driver. The print must validate that the triple-digit AI growth trajectory and recent 5%–34% compute price hikes are flowing through to the guided 11%–12% EBITA margin.
CMR & 618 Shopping Read-Through: Look for like-for-like Customer Management Revenue (CMR) growth holding above +6%–8% YoY to confirm that the post-618 GMV-to-CMR conversion gap did not widen materially.
Cost Discipline in ‘All Others’: Operating leverage depends on non-core losses narrowing from CNY 21.1bn in Q4 to ~CNY 17bn as early Qwen user-acquisition subsidies normalize.
Agentic Commerce & Capex Guidance: Commentary on Taobao-Qwen agentic integration and any shift in full-year capex trajectory above the CNY 380bn 3-year baseline.

3. Tactical Setup & Risk Asymmetry

Elevated Bar Post-Run: With shares up +36% QTD and forward EV/EBITDA expanding to 11.3x (vs. historical 4.1x trough), expectations are skewed toward perfection.
Bullish Breakout Trigger: Cloud growth $\ge$50% YoY accompanied by MaaS ARR pacing above CNY 10bn and EBITA margin >11.5% confirms the structural re-rating toward the HKD 190–215 bull target.
Downside Risk: Any Cloud growth print below 42% YoY, stagnant Cloud margins ($\le$9%), or persistent QC cash burn will likely trigger profit-taking given crowded buy-side positioning (51 Buy / 1 Sell).

Kira 4H tp is 132, sl is 120.8

====================================================

阿里巴巴 (9988 HK)：Q1 FY2027 財報前瞻

日期: 2026 年 8 月 20 日 (週四) | 時間: 13:21 HKT 財報發布與電話會議: 2026 年 8 月 20 日 (今日 18:00 HKT)

💡 核心摘要與估值重估催化劑

阿里巴巴 Q1 FY2027 財報正處於關鍵的獲利拐點：市場共識總營收將達 2,685 億人民幣（年增約 8.9%）。儘管 AI 資本支出與獲客成本曾導致上一季 EBITDA 大幅收縮，但核心雲端業務與 AI 變現正展現出強勁的爆發力。

估值安全邊際: 股票目前交易在 11.3x 預估 EV/EBITDA（未來十二個月），相對於歷史高點（20x）與全球同業，仍具備明顯的安全邊際。
AI 核心敘事: 估值重估的最強催化劑在於：管理層是否能證明雲端 EBITA 利潤率已重回擴張軌道（指引為 11-12%），以及 MaaS（模型即服務）ARR（年度經常性收入）是否如期達到單季 100 億、年底 300 億人民幣的目標，從而確認「獲利谷底已過」的投資邏輯。

📊 市場共識與買方預期

🎯 情境分析與估值矩陣

🟢 樂觀情境 (目標價: HKD 200–215 / USD 210–220): 雲端營收年增 >50%；EBITA 利潤率達 12-13%；MaaS ARR 目標超前；即時零售單位經濟效益 (UE) 提早翻正。強勁的 AI 基本面推動遠期 EV/EBITDA 倍數擴張至 14-15x。
🟡 基準情境 (目標價: HKD 173–190 / USD 185–195): 雲端營收年增約 45%；EBITA 利潤率 11%；即時零售虧損如期減半；核心電商客戶管理收入 (CMR) 維持同口徑 +8% 的穩定增長。對應 EV/EBITDA 倍數約 11-12x。
🔴 悲觀情境 (目標價: HKD 100–115 / USD 105–120): 雲端營收年增低於 40%；EBITA 利潤率停滯於 9%；宏觀疲軟打擊電商 CMR 預算；大模型代幣 (Token) 價格戰加劇拖累獲利。對應 EV/EBITDA 壓縮至 7-8x。

📈 平台核心指標與板塊亮點

雲端算力與定價護城河: AI 相關收入已連續 11 季實現三位數增長。近期針對 AI 算力（調漲 5–34%）及智慧存儲（調漲 30%）的強勢定價，加上自研倚天（T-Head）晶片已支援逾 60% 的外部算力，成為利潤率擴張的核心驅動力。
電商基本面與 AI 賦能: 淘天集團的核心挑戰在於即時零售 (Quick Commerce) 的現金消耗。然而，通義千問 AI 與淘寶的深度整合（如 AI 購物助手 Wukong），正被定位為中期推升 GMV 與轉化率的關鍵武器。
「其他業務」補貼退坡: Q4 FY26 因 AI 基礎設施投入與通義千問的激進獲客策略，導致非核心業務虧損達 211 億人民幣。市場將高度審視本季該部分虧損是否如期收斂至約 170 億人民幣。

⚡ 交易執行與交易台動態

Delta/Gamma 模型極端跳空防禦: 本季度 9988 HK 股價已大幅跑贏大盤 (+36%)，且買方預期偏高。今晚 18:00 HKT 財報公佈後，引含波動率極大。必須針對雲端增速 (<42% 或 >50%) 的極端情境，預先對大宗股票執行的 Delta 與 Gamma 模型進行壓力測試與重新校準。
大宗交易監測 (BTM) 焦點: 在財報電話會議期間，緊盯 BTM 上的機構資金流向。一旦管理層明確給出「MaaS ARR 進度超前」或「Capex 大幅超越三年 3,800 億指引」的量化數據，將是觸發流動性突波的核心信號。
期權鏈報價延遲優化: 由於期權鏈本身即包含底層資產價格欄位，務必確保自營交易台的定價腳本 (Pricing Scripts) 與獨立執行引擎直接抓取 9988 HK 的原生底層報價。切勿使用多餘的基準換算，以確保在 AI 數據觸發估值重估的瞬間，將訂單執行延遲 (Latency) 降至絕對最低。

Kira Trader Daily Report — 2026-08-19

Kira | StockNote — Thu, 20 Aug 2026 00:05:27 GMT

Publication date: 2026-08-19 | Author: KiraTrader

Part 1: Headline Summary

US Treasury increases buyback of long-term bonds; Fed meeting minutes; Alibaba to report earnings.

The U.S. Treasury unexpectedly announced a significant increase in longer-term Treasury buybacks, and long-term bond yields fell in response. The meeting minutes showed several Federal Reserve officials believed that if inflation stays high, it would be necessary to tighten monetary policy. It is reported that the U.S. plans to halve tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum and lower auto tariffs. China determined that the EU’s cross-border investigation into JD.com constitutes improper extraterritorial jurisdiction. Alibaba and NetEase will release earnings on Thursday.

International News

The U.S. Treasury unexpectedly announced it will at least double the scale of buybacks of 10- to 30-year Treasury bonds, and long-term bond yields fell in response. Jefferies worries that Treasury bill issuance faces variables, and the government may issue additional short-term debt to raise funds for the buybacks.
Citi advises buying 20-year U.S. Treasuries, saying increased buybacks signal yields have peaked. Fund flows show billionaire Ken Fisher’s firm is contrarian bottom-fishing long-term U.S. Treasuries with $4 billion.
US Treasury Department data shows that total public debt exceeded $40 trillion for the first time, surging by one-third in less than five years.
Federal Reserve July meeting minutes showed several officials leaned toward raising interest rates, believing that if inflation remains high, it is necessary to tighten monetary policy. Chairman Warsh proposed reducing the number of FOMC policy meetings per year from eight to six.
Trump said he may lower tariffs on Canada to the same level as other countries; according to reports, the US plans to halve tariffs on some Canadian steel and aluminum to 25%, and lower auto tariffs from 25% to 15%, with related details still under negotiation.
North Korea denies that the leaders of the US and North Korea conducted direct communication, but Trump told reporters he looks forward to meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un this year.
Pew’s June survey shows that Americans under 30 are increasingly wary of AI, fearing that technological progress will lead to mass unemployment.
Moderna shares soared a record 177% as trial results showed the melanoma vaccine research developed by the company and Merck achieved success.
SpaceX once sought to acquire AI programming startup Cognition, and both sides are still in talks to cooperate.
It is understood that hedge funds Rokos Capital and Brevan Howard Asset Management recorded losses in July. Meanwhile, Hudson River Trading’s second-quarter trading revenue grew several times year-on-year, reaching a record level.
The South Korean government seeks to build a new financial center outside the capital to alleviate the problem of excessive concentration in the Greater Seoul metropolitan area, and North Jeolla Province is one of the candidate sites.

Greater China News

Alibaba and NetEase will release earnings on Thursday, Wall Street is watching Alibaba’s cloud intelligence business performance, analysts expect NetEase profit growth, but higher marketing expenses may drag operating margin.
China determined that the EU’s cross-border investigation into JD.com’s acquisition of German company Ceconomy constituted improper extraterritorial jurisdiction, and demanded that any organization or individual be prohibited from executing or assisting in executing that measure.
China successfully recovered the first stage of a carrier rocket on land for the first time; CCTV, citing experts, reported that this move means China’s space launch costs are expected to be reduced by more than 70%. Morgan Stanley said China is the biggest competitive threat facing SpaceX.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar hinted that he will not condemn China’s use of force against Taiwan, and the Taiwanese authorities said such remarks may have an adverse impact on the confidence of Taiwanese businesses investing in Malaysia.
Reuters reports that Samsung Electronics has raised prices for new orders for some advanced chip foundry services, with quotes for mainland China clients up 10%-15% from the previous month, and for Taiwan clients up 5%-10%.
The Chief Executive of Hong Kong Exchanges said that nearly 10 international companies from Asia and the Middle East are currently preparing to list in Hong Kong, and expects trading by international investors in A-shares via northbound investment through Hong Kong will continue to remain strong.
Hong Kong government data shows that from mid-2025 to mid-2026, the number of births in Hong Kong plummeted by 15.6%, hitting the lowest level since records began in the 60s of the last century.
China’s central bank and Australia’s central bank renewed their bilateral local currency swap agreement, with the swap scale expanded to 220 billion yuan.
Cryptocurrency company OKX reportedly prohibits employees based in Hong Kong or transiting through China from using AI model Claude.

European and US Markets Overview

US stock market: S&P 500 rebounds after three consecutive declines, US Treasury expands Treasury bond buybacks, indicating authorities hope to lower borrowing costs.
S&P 500 index rose 0.21%, reported 7707.98 points
Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.22%, reported at 53463.05 points
The NASDAQ Composite Index rose 0.16% to 26331.09 points.
Chinese ADRs: The Golden Dragon China Index rose, with Huazhu Group and New Oriental contributing the most to the index.
The Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.51% to 6351.57 points.
Bank of New York Mellon China ADR Index rose 1.52%, reported at 375.05 points.
Energy: Oil prices rose to a more than three-week high, due to tensions in the Middle East and US refineries increasing crude processing.
WTI crude oil futures rose 1.05%, reported at 85.83 USD/barrel.
Brent crude oil futures rose 0.66%, reported at 91.62 USD/barrel
NYMEX natural gas futures rose 1.37%, reported at $2.814 per million British thermal units
Metals: Gold prices jumped, thanks to U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar moving lower after the U.S. Treasury announced increased long-term debt buybacks. London Metal Exchange copper prices moved higher.
Gold spot rose 4.18%, reported at 4515.58 USD/oz.
Spot silver rose 5.7%, reported at 66.9788 US dollars per ounce.

📈 Market breadth: looking for top and bottom signals

S&P 500 market breadth (proportion of constituents above 20MA): 70.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Nasdaq 100 market breadth (proportion of components above 20MA): 70.0% — neutral status. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Hang Seng Index market breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 30.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Broad-Based Index

✅ Strong sectors/assets: S&P equal weight, Magnificent Seven, emerging markets.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: S&P Small Cap, Nasdaq 100, S&P Mid Cap 400.

Factor Style

✅ Strong sectors/assets: low-volatility defensive stocks, social sentiment stocks, high-volatility stocks.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: value stocks, high short-interest-ratio stocks, momentum stocks.

📝 Market Summary

Yesterday saw a momentum collapse. Previously strong stocks suffered significant profit-taking, and one must be wary of trend reversal risk.

Cross-Asset Class

✅ Strong sectors/assets: Long bonds (TLT), Gold, 7-10 Year Treasury Bond.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: crude oil, Natural Gas, US dollar index.

🛑 Market Risk Dashboard

VIX (fear index): 14.89 | Skew (black swan index): 59.12
Current market status: Normal — volatility is in a normal range, suitable for trend strategies.

Economic Data Schedule

07:50: Japan July trade balance (estimated deficit of 649 billion yen, previous deficit of 409.9 billion yen)
07:50: Japan July exports year-on-year (estimated at 20.1%, previous value 19.3%)
09:00: China July SWIFT RMB tracking indicator (previous value was 3.1%)
09:30: Australia July Employment Change (estimated +12,000, previous +76,300)
09:30: Australia July unemployment rate (estimated at 4.4%, previous value 4.4%)
16:00: Taiwan July export orders year-on-year (estimate 52.7%, previous 59.4%)
16:30: Hong Kong July unemployment rate (estimated to be 3.7%, previous value 3.7%)
16:30: Hong Kong July Composite Consumer Price Index year-on-year (estimated at 1.7%, previous value 2%)
20:30: US August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (estimate 25, previous 41.4)
20:30: U.S. last week’s initial jobless claims (estimated at 210,000, previous value 209,000)
22:00: U.S. July Conference Board Leading Index (estimated at 0.1%, previous value -0.2%)

Central Bank and Government Developments

09:00: China 1-year Loan Prime Rate (estimated at 3%, previous value 3%)
09:00: China 5-year Loan Prime Rate (estimated at 3.5%, previous value 3.5%)
23:10: U.S. St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks
20-22: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits South Korea, Indonesia

Greater China Stock Market Focus

Chip stocks: Samsung Electronics reportedly raised prices for new orders of some advanced chip foundry services, quotations for mainland China customers were up 10%-15% from the previous month.
JD Group (9618 HK): China determines that the European Union’s cross-border investigation into JD’s acquisition of German company Ceconomy constitutes improper extraterritorial jurisdiction.
Alibaba (9988 HK): Alibaba will announce earnings on Thursday, with Wall Street particularly focused on its cloud intelligence business performance.
NetEase (9899 HK): NetEase will release results on Thursday, analysts expect second-quarter profit growth of about 5.3%, and marketing expenses may drag operating margin.
Smoore International (6969 HK): Smoore International’s adjusted profit in the first half exceeded estimates

Today’s Key US Stock Earnings

Announcement Date 2026-08-19: TJX, VIK, NDSN, YMM

Part 2: Core Assets Battle Map

2.1 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 363 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 423 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 21:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

2.2 Hang Seng Index (HSI)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 277 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 366 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 09:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

📍 Current price: 25721
🎯 Upside resistance (short-selling defense line): 25857 | 25919 | 25743
🛡️ Lower support (long position defense line): 25290 | 25711 | 25436
💡 Upward breakout path: if it holds 25743 👉 target 25857
💡 Downward breakdown path: if 25711 is lost 👉 test 25649

2.3 Gold Futures (Gold)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 195 points
📏 30-day average: 82 points
📢 Trading suggestion: ample volatility, suggest trend-following breakout trading.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 20:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

Kira Trader Daily Report — 2026-08-18

Kira | StockNote — Wed, 19 Aug 2026 00:04:57 GMT

Publication date: 2026-08-18 | Author: KiraTrader

Part 1: Headline Summary

Sovereign bonds of many countries were sold off; China relaxes provident fund withdrawal; Unitree Robotics lists

Trump said there has been no dialogue with Iran; inflation concerns and other factors drove long-term sovereign bonds in many countries to fall sharply. A BofA survey shows most fund managers are overweight stocks. Mexico is reportedly considering tightening trade measures against China. China broadens the scope of housing provident fund withdrawal and use. Baidu’s revenue declined for five consecutive quarters. Unitree Technology will debut on the STAR Market on Wednesday, and its share price may surge more than 300%.

International News

Driven by inflation, fiscal deficits, and the AI financing wave, long-term sovereign bonds in many countries were sold off, yields rose to their highest in more than a decade, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly touched a high not seen since early last year.
Strait of Hormuz standoff continues, Trump says there are currently no talks with Tehran. UAE accuses Iran of missile attack, will suspend all commercial dealings with the country.
Bank of America’s August survey shows that a net 56% of fund managers are overweight stocks, the highest proportion in nearly five years, and they generally expect the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates before the November midterm elections.
Bank of America analysts said NVIDIA is extremely attractive, with the stock severely undervalued, at a discount as deep as 50%.
Anthropic’s pre-IPO revolving credit facility is expected to exceed 10 billion dollars, with multiple banks hoping to participate in order to take the opportunity to gain a more important role in the IPO. It is reported that Anthropic plans to grant the CEO shares with additional voting rights.
U.S.-Canada trade talks enter the final stretch, Trump administration downplays expectations of reaching a deal before new tariffs take effect on Wednesday, saying the likelihood is only 50% or even lower.
Mexico is reportedly considering implementing further trade restrictions on some goods from China and other countries, while raising existing tariffs on some goods, with steel products and automobiles being the main candidates.
U.S. industrial output grew for a second consecutive month in July, pending home sales fell to the lowest since the start of the year, and high mortgage rates and housing prices continued to weigh on the housing market.
European Central Bank chief economist says, affected by the Iran war, the inflation rate will hover around 3% within the year.
According to reports, at least five grain ships were attacked near Russian Black Sea ports this week, raising concerns about global food supplies.

Greater China News

The Chinese government decided to revise the housing provident fund management regulations, broaden the scope of withdrawal and use, and add circumstances such as renovating self-occupied housing and paying property fees for self-occupied housing that allow withdrawal of housing provident fund.
As China’s growth momentum weakens, some investors have recently been eagerly chasing long-duration bonds, pushing the yield curve into a bull flattening. Market participants believe that, supported by weak fundamentals and an asset shortage, the ultra-long bond term spread still has some room to compress.
China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration supports mainland insurance institutions in investing in Hong Kong ETFs through the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, and currently a total of 31 Hong Kong ETFs are eligible for Hong Kong Stock Connect trading.
Unitree Technology will list on the Shanghai STAR Market on Wednesday, and the crypto futures contract on the Hyperliquid platform tracking this leading Chinese robotics company suggests a first-day gain of more than threefold.
ByteDance’s overseas financing has been warmly received; according to reports, the 20 billion dollar syndicated loan being arranged has received commitments of over 30 billion dollars, and ByteDance has not yet decided whether to expand it.
Baidu’s revenue declined for the fifth consecutive quarter, its advertising business was sluggish, and the company continued to lag behind competitors in AI. Overnight ADR posted its biggest drop in more than five years.
Xiaomi Group’s revenue declined last quarter, net profit decline was smaller than expected, memory shortage hit smartphone demand.
Pony.ai’s quarterly autonomous driving mobility service revenue hit a record high, and overseas business development momentum continues to accelerate.
Alibaba-invested AI video generation platform Shengshu Technology and robot manufacturer Zhuji Dynamics are reportedly considering Hong Kong IPOs; the former’s fundraising scale may exceed $500 million.
Bridgewater China reportedly suffered only a small loss in the July stock market crash, with a return rate of about 3% from the start of the year to the end of July, performing more resiliently compared with quantitative funds.
Hong Kong Exchanges will optimize the compilation methodology of the HKEX Technology 100 Index; the new methodology and related constituent stock adjustments will be implemented after the market close on September 11 and take effect on September 14.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will make a two-day official visit to South Korea starting Wednesday upon invitation; amid the United States scaling back US-South Korea joint military exercises, Beijing seeks to strengthen diplomatic engagement with South Korea
Taiwan’s Economic Daily News reports that Taiwanese power semiconductor manufacturers plan to raise prices as early as October, mainly targeting non-contract products, with the increase expected to be between 10% and 15%.

European and US Markets Overview

U.S. stocks: Tech stocks slumped, dragging the broader market to a lower close, while elevated long-term bond yields dampened risk appetite.
S&P 500 index fell 0.69%, reported at 7691.76 points.
Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.22%, reported 53343.4 points.
NASDAQ Composite Index fell 1.33%, reported at 26289.71 points.
China-concept stocks: The Golden Dragon China Index fell, and after Baidu reported revenue declining for the fifth consecutive quarter, its ADR plunged.
The Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.01%, reported at 6256.97 points.
BNY Mellon China ADR Index rose 0.66%, reported 369.43 points.
Energy: Oil prices edged up to a three-week high, with the US and Iran still deadlocked over the issue of control of the Strait of Hormuz.
WTI crude oil futures rose 0.52%, reported at 84.94 USD/barrel
Brent crude oil futures rose 0.17%, reported at 91.02 dollars/barrel.
NYMEX natural gas futures rose 3.2%, quoted at 2.776 dollars/million British thermal units
Metals: Declines in global government bonds and a stronger dollar put dual pressure on gold prices. Copper prices moved lower, with supply tightness easing somewhat as copper inventories at the London Metal Exchange increased.
Spot gold fell 1.85%, reported at 4334.5 USD/oz.
Spot silver fell 3.68%, reported at 63.3658 dollars per ounce.

📈 Market breadth: looking for top and bottom signals

S&P 500 market breadth (proportion of constituents above 20MA): 60.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Nasdaq 100 market breadth (proportion of constituents above 20MA): 63.2% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Hang Seng Index market breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 30.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Broad-Based Index

✅ Strong sectors/assets: Seven major tech giants, S&P Equal Weight, Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: Nasdaq 100, S&P Mid Cap 400, non-US developed markets.

Factor Style

✅ Strong sectors/assets: low-volatility defensive stocks, shareholder returns (high dividend), high-quality stocks.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: high short interest ratio stocks, momentum stocks, high volatility stocks.

📝 Market Summary

Yesterday saw a momentum collapse. Previously strong stocks suffered significant profit-taking, and one must be wary of trend reversal risk.

Cross-Asset Class

✅ Strong sectors/assets: Natural Gas, long-term bonds (TLT), US dollar index.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: Silver, Gold, Copper.

🛑 Market Risk Dashboard

VIX (Fear Index): 15.84 | Skew (Black Swan Index): 60.94
Current market status: Normal — volatility is in a normal range, suitable for trend strategies.

Economic Data Schedule

14:00: UK July Consumer Price Index year-on-year (expected 2.9%, previous 2.6%)
17:00: Eurozone July Consumer Price Index year-on-year final (estimate 2.9%, preliminary 2.9%)

Central Bank and Government Developments

15:10: European Central Bank President Lagarde speech
19-20: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visits South Korea
20th 02:00: Federal Reserve July policy meeting minutes

Greater China Stock Market Focus

Agricultural stocks: It is understood that at least five grain ships were attacked near Russia’s Black Sea ports this week, raising concerns about global food supplies.
Real estate stocks: China decided to revise the housing provident fund management regulations, broadening the scope of withdrawal and use.
Xiaomi Group (1810 HK): Xiaomi Group’s revenue declined last quarter, net profit decline was smaller than expected, memory shortage hit smartphone demand.
Baidu (9888 HK): Baidu’s revenue declined for the fifth consecutive quarter, continuing to lag competitors in the AI field. Overnight ADR saw its biggest drop in more than five years.
Alibaba (9988 HK): The Alibaba-invested AI video generation platform Shengshu Technology is reportedly considering a Hong Kong IPO next year, and the fundraising scale may exceed 500 million dollars
Pony.ai (2026 HK): Pony.ai’s second-quarter autonomous driving mobility service revenue hit a record high, and overseas business development momentum continues to accelerate
CSC Financial (6066 HK): CSC Financial’s first-half net profit was 7.64 billion yuan.
Ping An Good Doctor (1833 HK): Ping An Good Doctor first-half net profit 219.3 million yuan, same period last year 134.2 million yuan

Today’s Key US Stock Earnings

Announcement Date 2026-08-18: HD, BHP, KEYS, BIDU, HSAI, SQM, AS, ZTO, TOL, JKHY, MRCY

Part 2: Core Assets Battle Map

2.1 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 252 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 426 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 21:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

2.2 Hang Seng Index (HSI)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 274 points
📏 Past 30-day average: 369 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 09:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

📍 Current price: 25386
🎯 Upside resistance (short-selling defense line): 25858 | 25436 | 25698
🛡️ Lower support (long position defense line): 25379 | 25208 | 25305
💡 Upward breakout path: If it stabilizes at 25436 👉 look toward 25545
💡 Downward breakdown path: If 25379 is lost 👉 test lower 25305

2.3 Gold Futures (Gold)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 83 points
📏 30-day average: 78 points
📢 Trading suggestion: ample volatility, suggest trend-following breakout trading.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 20:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

Kira Trader Daily Report — 2026-08-17

Kira | StockNote — Tue, 18 Aug 2026 00:05:05 GMT

Release date: 2026-08-17 | Author: KiraTrader

Part 1: Headline Summary

US refuses to extend temporary ceasefire with Iran; foreign countries sell off U.S. Treasuries; Baidu will release earnings report.

Prospects for Middle East peace grow increasingly dim, and Trump refused to extend the temporary US-Iran ceasefire agreement. The US 30-year Treasury yield rose to its highest in nearly 20 years, with foreign selling of US Treasuries in June, and Japan and China leading the reductions. China’s bank client foreign-exchange sales in July hit a new high in more than a decade. Baidu will report earnings on Tuesday, and its AI cloud business is expected to maintain strong growth.

International News

Trump refused to extend the US-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement and reiterated his idea of declaring the Strait of Hormuz as US territory. He is reportedly in no hurry to end the war, and threatened that if Oman obstructs the US, he will bomb the former.
Selling wave continues to hit long-term US Treasuries, with 30-year yields rising to their highest level in nearly two decades. Citadel Securities said the yield surge reflects Federal Reserve policy risk, and the outcome of the next interest-rate meeting is hard to predict.
US Treasury data show foreigners sold US Treasuries in June, with Japan and China having the largest reductions.
As AI infrastructure drives corporate debt issuance, US investment-grade bond issuance volume set a record for the same period in history for the third consecutive month.
AI company Anthropic’s annualized revenue is reportedly expected to break through 65 billion dollars, growing more than 6 times from the end of last year.
NVIDIA agreed to invest up to 105 billion dollars to support a new large-scale data center campus in Ohio, which will be leased by OpenAI in the future.
US homebuilder confidence improved only slightly in August, with high borrowing costs weighing on the housing market. Manufacturing activity in New York State expanded at the fastest pace since the end of 2021 that month.
Canada’s inflation rate in July rose slightly to 3%, as the Middle East conflict continued to push up gasoline prices, with a year-on-year increase of more than 25%.
US-Canada trade negotiations hit obstacles, with auto tariffs reportedly becoming the main disagreement. Canada hopes to lower the auto tariff rate to 10%, but the US insists on a minimum rate of 15%.
European Central Bank researchers warned that after a round of rapid gains in technology stocks, the stock market may see a correction, or bring serious consequences for the euro area.
Trump says North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has responded to the request concerning talks between the two, and says his relationship with Kim Jong Un is making the region safer.
Pentagon ordered 30 universities to immediately conduct comprehensive reviews of academic, funding, and research cooperation relationships with foreign entities, to prevent unauthorized technology transfer and intellectual property theft.
Ultra-wealthy family offices in the Americas, Europe, and the Middle East are piling into SpaceX, with total holdings exceeding 3.8 billion dollars.

Greater China News

Chinese Premier Li Qiang demanded that efforts be made to complete the annual economic and social development goals and adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand. The statistics bureau said that achieving the annual economic growth target has a good foundation and conditions.
China’s NDRC said it will accelerate the deployment of new policy-based financial instruments in 2026 and increase support for private investment projects.
China’s foreign exchange bureau data showed that in July, banks’ sales of foreign exchange to clients hit a fresh high in more than ten years, and clients’ forward foreign exchange settlement and sales recorded a deficit for the first time in a year and a half.
China released a five-year plan for oil and gas development, targeting domestic oil and gas supply to reach 440 million tons of oil equivalent by 2030.
Politico: Chinese President Xi Jinping may arrive in the United States on the evening of September 23 and meet with Trump the next day, and not attend the United Nations General Assembly.
Baidu will announce second-quarter results on Tuesday; analysts expect that although advertising and other businesses still face pressure, the AI cloud business will maintain strong growth.
Chinese fast-fashion cross-border e-commerce Shein is reportedly further lowering its Hong Kong IPO target valuation to no more than $27 billion, only slightly higher than a quarter of its historical peak, and plans to list around the end of this month.
Alibaba launches AI music model Happy Shrimp beta version, which can generate a fully produced song from a single text prompt, and users do not need to have professional music knowledge.
Unitree Robotics stock will list on the Shanghai STAR Market on 8/19, and the retail portion of the IPO received over 5500 times subscription.
Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te said that in 2027, cash of 10 thousand Taiwan dollars will be universally distributed to each person, with all people sharing AI dividends.

European and US Markets Overview

U.S. stock market: major indices broadly fell, chip stocks rose against the trend, news of Anthropic’s surging revenue boosted optimism about artificial intelligence
S&P 500 index fell 0.52%, reported at 7745.06 points
Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.51%, reported at 53459.78 points.
Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.32%, reported 26644.91 points
China concept stocks: Golden Dragon China Index rose for the second consecutive day, with Huazhu and XPeng contributing the most to the index.
Golden Dragon China Index rises 0.4%
Energy: oil prices climb, with signs that the Middle East conflict remains difficult to calm in the short term.
WTI crude oil futures rose 2.55%, reported at 84.5 USD per barrel.
Brent crude oil futures rose 2.65%, quoted at 90.87 dollars per barrel.
NYMEX natural gas futures fell 1.57%, reported at 2.69 US dollars/million British thermal units
Metals: As expectations of Fed rate hikes cool, gold prices rise. Copper prices were basically flat, with market supply tight.
Spot gold rose 0.9%, quoted at 4415.99 USD/ounce.
Silver spot rose 1.71%, reported at 65.7882 US dollars per ounce.

📈 Market breadth: looking for top and bottom signals

S&P 500 market breadth (percentage of constituent stocks above 20MA): 50.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Nasdaq 100 market breadth (proportion of constituents above 20MA): 60.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Hang Seng Index market breadth (proportion of constituent stocks above 20MA): 50.0% — status neutral. Market breadth is at a reasonable level.

Broad-Based Index

✅ Strong sectors/assets: emerging markets, non-US developed markets, Nasdaq 100.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted, the seven major tech giants, S&P equal weight.

Factor Style

✅ Strong sectors/assets: momentum stocks, high short-interest ratio stocks, high volatility stocks.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: shareholder returns (high dividend), high-quality stocks, low-volatility defensive stocks.

📝 Market Summary

Market style is relatively mixed, with no extreme one-sided style switch appearing; it is recommended to focus on the independent trends of individual sectors.

Cross-Asset Class

✅ Strong sectors/assets: Agriculture, Commodity Index, crude oil.
🔻 Weak sectors/assets: S&P 500, 7-10 Year Treasury Bond, Long Bond (TLT).

🛑 Market Risk Dashboard

VIX (fear index): 15.19 | Skew (black swan index): 59.61
Current market status: Normal — volatility is in a normal range, suitable for trend strategies.

Economic Data Schedule

14:00: UK June ILO unemployment rate (estimated at 4.8%, previous value 4.9%)
20:30: US July import prices month-on-month (estimated at 0.1%, previous value 0.3%)
20:30: U.S. July new home starts seasonally adjusted annualized rate (estimate 1.344 million, previous 1.427 million)
22:00: US July existing home sales contract volume month-on-month (estimate 0%, previous value -5.4%)

Central Bank and Government Developments

15:00: China’s State Council Information Office holds a press conference on the relevant situation regarding stimulating the vitality of lower-tier markets and activating county-level consumption
19:45: European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane speaks

Greater China Stock Market Focus

Oil & gas stocks: China released a five-year plan for oil and gas development, targeting domestic oil and gas supply to reach 440 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2030.
Baidu Group (9888 HK): Baidu will announce second-quarter results; analysts expect that despite advertising and other businesses still facing pressure, the company’s AI cloud business will maintain strong growth.
Alibaba (9988 HK): Alibaba launches AI music model Happy Xiami beta, which can generate a fully produced song based on a text prompt.
Hong Kong Exchanges (388 HK): Chan Yik-ting continues to serve as CEO of HKEX for a term of three years.

Today’s Key US Stock Earnings

Announcement date 2026-08-17: FN, HTHT, XP, GRFS

Part 2: Core Assets Battle Map

2.1 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 223 points
📏 Recent 30-day average: 433 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 21:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

2.2 Hang Seng Index (HSI)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 222 points
📏 30-day average: 364 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 09:30 (HKT)

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

📍 Current price: 25373
🎯 Upside resistance (short-selling defense line): 25858 | 25698 | 25921
🛡️ Lower support (long position defense line): 25208 | 25362 | 25305
💡 Upward breakout path: if it holds steady at 25419 👉 look to 25465
💡 Downside break path: if it loses 25362 👉 test lower 25305

2.3 Gold Futures (Gold)

A. Volatility and entry timing

📉 Current True Range: 53 points
📏 30-day average: 78 points
📢 Trading suggestion: Volatility is narrowing, beware of false breakouts, suggest selling high and buying low or wait and see.

🎯 Strongest momentum hunting period: 20:30 (HKT)

奇拿的股票筆記

Kira Trader Daily Report — 2026-09-02

Part 1: Headline Summary

International News

Greater China News

European and US Markets Overview

📈 Market breadth: looking for top and bottom signals

Broad-Based Index

Factor Style

📝 Market Summary

Cross-Asset Class

🛑 Market Risk Dashboard

Economic Data Schedule

Central Bank and Government Developments

Greater China Stock Market Focus

Today’s Key US Stock Earnings

Part 2: Core Assets Battle Map

2.1 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

A. Volatility and entry timing

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

2.2 Hang Seng Index (HSI)

A. Volatility and entry timing

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

2.3 Gold Futures (Gold)

A. Volatility and entry timing

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

Kira Trader Daily Report — 2026-09-01

Part 1: Headline Summary

International News

Greater China News

European and US Markets Overview

📈 Market breadth: looking for top and bottom signals

Broad-Based Index

Factor Style

📝 Market Summary

Cross-Asset Class

🛑 Market Risk Dashboard

Economic Data Schedule

Central Bank and Government Developments

Greater China Stock Market Focus

Today’s Key US Stock Earnings

Part 2: Core Assets Battle Map

2.1 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

A. Volatility and entry timing

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

2.2 Hang Seng Index (HSI)

A. Volatility and entry timing

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

2.3 Gold Futures (Gold)

A. Volatility and entry timing

B. Support/Resistance Distribution Chart

ServiceNow TP165

ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE: NOW)

一、 核心投資邏輯（Investment Thesis）

1. AI 商業化進入爆發期，ACV 突破 10 億美元

2. 跨模塊交叉銷售強勁，TAM 擴容至 6,000 億美元

3. 高續約率與經常性收入，營收質量極高

二、 財務預測與同業估值比較

1. 業績展望（FY25E–FY27E）

2. 同業橫向估值對比

三、 主要風險與應對（Downside Risks）

四、 投資建議與催化劑（Catalysts & Strategy）

Kira Trader Daily Report — 2026-08-31

Part 1: Headline Summary

International News

Greater China News

European and US Markets Overview

📈 Market breadth: looking for top and bottom signals

Broad-Based Index

Factor Style

📝 Market Summary

Cross-Asset Class

🛑 Market Risk Dashboard

Economic Data Schedule

Central Bank and Government Developments

Greater China Stock Market Focus

Today’s Key US Stock Earnings

Part 2: Core Assets Battle Map

2.1 Nasdaq 100 (NDX)

A. Volatility and entry timing

一、核心投資邏輯（Investment Thesis）

二、財務預測與同業估值比較

三、主要風險與應對（Downside Risks）

四、投資建議與催化劑（Catalysts & Strategy）