Twitter ain’t what it used to be, so I reached out to Substack colleagues for assistance. There was a spike in Twitter contract polling interest early July, but that collapsed by August. Fortunately, best contract polling wrapped in July, and it was the worst contract voter turnout suffering max apathy, traditionally bad deals produce greater views than good. People just like slowing down to stare at traffic accidents, but the rising cap has fewer GMs crashing into trees lately, whereas this list was wickedly competitive, which becomes clear when you look at the 25 runners up left off the top 15.

My threshold for inclusion has been set at $10M AAV for the last few seasons, which made sense with the elite tier signing in the $12M to $14M, but suddenly this summer the wage ceiling is pushing higher. Kaprizov spent time alone on that Island, but more have joined lately, colonizing a new stratosphere will only attract more going forward. Many of these bargains below, size of underpayment is only growing, the market resetting in real-time as this list was compiling. Cale Makar just pushed that even higher, breaching $20M AAV this weekend. On the Makar $20M, Byram $12M scale, there’s a few of $15M+ defenders below.

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2026 BEST BARGAIN CONTRACTS

1. Lane Hutson

• 2025 Rank: N/A

• Age: 22

• Remaining Term: 8 years

• Cap Hit: $8.85M

• Signing GM: Kent Hughes, Oct 13, 2025

Lane Hutson makes his debut on this list dethroning the back-to-back-to-back defending champ Jack Hughes before a single game has been played at his new salary. He was the #1 seed in this tournament before a single vote was cast for the simple reason that my career modelling flagged this as a severe underpayment, and that obscene value was also recognized by voters. When Bowen Byram became the highest paid defenseman in the league and the ceiling started climbing, Lane’s price tag became absurdly low by comparison, then Cale Makar signed for more than double, dwarfing everyone.

The sample size on his career is still small, so Montreal did take a risk handing $70M to a defender with only 1 year service under his belt, but sometimes you need to assume some risk in order to bank a big reward. Hutson scored 78 PTS, helped Montreal to the conference final, and if he went UFA tomorrow, doubling his current salary would be a real possibility. Makar cashing a $20M AAV ticket transforms the marketplace, though one could argue that came when Byram signed.

2. Moritz Seider

• 2025 Rank: 8

• Age: 25

• Remaining Term: 5 years

• Cap Hit: $8.6M

• Signing GM: Steve Yzerman, Sep 19, 2024

Bowen Byram was the NHL’s highest paid defenseman for 2.5 months, but I would be shocked if a single NHL GM would trade Seider for Byram straight-up, even if they made the same salary. The Spittin’ Chiclets podcast recently compared him to Chris Pronger, big, tough, mean, excellent in both ends of the ice, the type of defender you need to go far in playoffs. That’s why there’s undoubtedly a significant proportion of NHL GMs would rather have Seider on their roster than Hutson, but we’ve still never seen playoff Mo, and frankly might not for the duration of this deal.

Speaking of Detroit’s dwindling playoff prospects, my Red Wings fan bias requires disclaiming. Though given the events this summer and the Atlantic division only getting stronger, that bias is leaning more pessimistic than optimistic. I’d rather see them finish 32^nd in the standings than 17^th, but bottoming gets harder with a defenseman of this quality logging 25 minutes per night.

3. Jack Hughes

• 2025 Rank: 1

• Age: 25

• Remaining Term: 4 years

• Cap Hit: $8M

• Signing GM: Tom Fitzgerald, Nov 30, 2021

Jack Hughes attempt to 4-peat as the league’s most underpaid player failed, which could plausibly be a biproduct of an unfortunate restaurant injury, and that’s the rub. Deadly when healthy, but freakishly prone to injuries, even visiting steak houses. The decline of the New Jersey Devils in general might also factor into the declining bargain rating, although the word “decline” is relative to the field, because Jack still beat some big names below. This contract has much in common with Nathan MacKinnon’s previous deal, but at least that ridiculous bargain produced a Stanley Cup. Jack still has 4 years to make that happen, I’m just pessimistic the franchise is trending in that direction.

While “injury risk” could have negatively impacted his approval rating, that’s also a big reason they got him on an 8-year deal at that price. He was battling injury early his young career, surely reducing his desire to “bet on himself”, but that’s a tough determination to make when offered life-changing money. We could quibble over whether a $64M pay day constitutes a “bad bet”, but there’s no question he left at least $30M on the bargaining table, possibly more.

4. Logan Stankoven

• 2025 Rank: N/A

• Age: 23

• Remaining Term: 8 years

• Cap Hit: $6M

• Signing GM: Eric Tulsky, July 1, 2025

If this list had been posted at the end of the regular season, unlikely Logan Stankoven even cracks the top 15. The offensive stats were mediocre and below many of these contemporaries in points per dollar, until playoffs happened. Any hardcore fans in a coma from April to June would likely wake from their slumber and look at this deal #4 on the biggest bargains list with confusion. The diminutive center scored at a 44-point pace in the regular season, 69 PTS in the playoffs. If not for Jordan Staal’s heroics in the final, Logan could/should have won playoff MVP.

Stankoven, Blake, and Hall combined for 55 PTS in the playoffs, while Aho, Jarvis, and Svechnikov scored 34; leaving little doubt who deserves more credit for the championship. Some might argue that the Florida Panthers injury situation is the only reason Carolina climbed to the summit, but the way this roster is built and average age compared to Panthers, Canes have a strong chance of adding more banners to the rafters in the next 8 years.

5. Matt Boldy

• 2025 Rank: N/A

• Age: 25

• Remaining Term: 4 years

• Cap Hit: $7M

• Signing GM: Bill Guerin, Jan 1, 2023

Last year Matt Boldy finished just outside the top 15 in polling results, but landed #5 one year later after winning a playoff series and an Olympic gold medal. My own opinion would have ranked him ahead of Stankoven, but given what Logan accomplished winning the Stanley Cup, I’m not executing executive override. Playoff stats notwithstanding, Boldy is in another stratosphere of offensive output for a comparable price, but half as many years remaining. Matt’s career scoring rate is 75 PTS per 82 GP, reaching 92 PTS per 82 last season.

Wherever that production peak lands next 4 years will likely depend on whether or not Quinn Hughes is feeding him passes, but at least this upcoming campaign, Matty is poised for big numbers. Rumours made the rounds this summer that Boldy was Detroit’s demand in a Larkin trade, and as a Wings fan, I’ll concede that’s a ridiculous request unless Wings are sweetening the deal with picks/prospects. Wild Bill Guerin ain’t trading one of the league’s biggest with what a Hughes extension would cost them, especially after Makar just banked record money.

6. Seth Jarvis

• 2025 Rank: 4

• Age: 24

• Remaining Term: 6 years

• Cap Hit: $7.4M

• Signing GM: Eric Tulsky, Aug 31, 2024

It’s interesting that Seth Jarvis dropped from #4 to #6 on this list after winning the Stanley Cup, but he only scored 4 goals in the playoffs vs Stankoven’s 11, so didn’t get the same playoff boost. We found out later that he was battling an injury that required surgery, so he may yet prove to be a bigger bargain for the remainder of this deal than his teammate. Seth finished much higher in my pre-polling seeding which was completed in early May, and even with everything unfolding afterwards, he still gets my vote ahead of Stankoven if we rebooted this tournament tomorrow.

Many people didn’t buy membership in the Seth Jarvis fan club until his breakout with Team Canada at the 4-Nations Faceoff, when he proved he belonged on the biggest stage against elite competition. He’s the complete package, career stats per 82 GP, 61 PTS, 197 shots, 94 hits, plays both power play and penalty kill, scoring 16 short-handed PTS last 3 seasons, ranking him 2^nd in the NHL in that category behind JG Pageau. That’s impressive, and may retrospectively change the hearts/minds of a few Stankoven voters...

7. Cole Caufield

• 2025 Rank: N/A

• Age: 25

• Remaining Term: 5 years

• Cap Hit: $7.85M

• Signing GM: Marc Bergevin, June 6, 2023

Cole Caufield scored 51 goals last season, and given how rarely that level of sharp-shooting talent reaches the open market, he could potentially double his salary with a ceiling reset in progress. The caveat for Cole is a very potent offensive supporting cast, spending substantial time on ice with Suzuki, Hutson, Slafkovsky. If he played the entire campaign with the Vancouver Canucks, he’d be lucky to pot 35 goals, not diminishing his accomplishment, but maybe a little bit.

Caufield’s scoring rate dropped from 89 PTS per 82 GP in the regular season to 56 in playoffs, so the opposite of Stankoven, but Montreal faced much tougher competition surviving Atlantic division attrition, facing the Vezina winner in round one. The knock on Cole’s value in the eyes of traditionalists is the same reason he slipped in the draft, size. However, that’s a potential knock on 4 of this list’s top 7 names, so perhaps that market discrimination is part of the reason the signees where willing to accept long-term, team-friendly deals.

8. Lucas Raymond

• 2025 Rank: 14

• Age: 24

• Remaining Term: 6 years

• Cap Hit: $8.1M

• Signing GM: Steve Yzerman, Sep 16, 2024

We already discussed my Red Wings fan bias and the need to let democracy (and Substack colleagues) decide the final rank, and this is the chosen slot for Lucas Raymond (which is higher than my initial seeding). Adding to the bias is several Raymond rookie cards in my collection, making me financially invested in his future. Adding irony to my financial/emotional investment in his career was my anger when Rangers won the rigged draft lottery and picked Lafreniere in 2020, but Lucas scoring 330 PTS in 400 NHL GP versus Lafreniere’s 250 PTS in 462 GP, retroactively reduced my rage.

You can accuse me of fan bias for Seider’s #2 and Raymond’s #8 ranking on this list, but democracy shields me from your accusations. One thing that has surely raised his approval rating compared to last year’s tournament, was his performance at the Olympics, finishing 3^rd in scoring behind McDavid and Celebrini, easily the most productive offensive player on Team Sweden. So, to all the nay-sayers, put that in your pipe and smoke it…

9. Brandon Hagel

• 2025 Rank: 10

• Age: 28

• Remaining Term: 6 years

• Cap Hit: $6.5M

• Signing GM: Julien Brisebois, Aug 22, 2023

Whether or not Brandon Hagel or Lucas Raymond had more “value remaining” became a source of contention between me and my Substack colleague who covers the Tampa Bay Lightning, but we let democracy do the deciding, since both of us had biased opinion. That said, I’m a bigger fan of Team Canada than Detroit. Hagel won my heart at the 4-Nations Face-off, and nothing would please me more than him being a 90-point player unleashing forechecking Hell on opposing defenders for the next 6 years with zero decline. If I could trade Detroit never makes the playoffs again in my lifetime for Team Canada wins every Olympic gold in that span, I’d take the deal.

The biggest thing Raymond has over Hagel is age. I’ll concede that Hagel’s tenacity and physical play should provide an edge given comparable offensive output, but that’s also part of my concern with age and term. He battled injury this season, a possible forecasting of things to come, but I’m not biased enough to deny, both players as they are right now, Hagel is a bigger bargain and one I’d rather have on my team. Let’s just see where this is at when Hagel is 32 and Raymond is 28. Also, Raymond did not spend 674 minutes on the ice with Nikita Kucherov this season, yet still scored more PTS than Hagel.

10. Jake Sanderson

• 2025 Rank: 3

• Age: 24

• Remaining Term: 6 years

• Cap Hit: $8.1M

• Signing GM: Pierre Dorion, Sept 6, 2023

Jake Sanderson finished 3rd in last year’s poll tournament, but dropped to #10 in 2026. He battled injury this past season, dropping from 80 to 67 GP, but total points only dropped from 57 to 54. Higher points per game, fewer played. I even lamented last year that my guy Mo Seider might not be the best bargain D contract for the remaining term because Jake the Snake had more time remaining at a lower price tag. Yet, 1 year later, voters decided Mo was #2 and Jake was #10, my own personal bias did not play a factor….

All that said, Jake is among the league’s best defensemen, and Makar making $20M, Byram making $12M probably slots Sanderson at a $16M market value, double what Ottawa is currently paying him, at age 24 with 6 years on the clock. Like others on this list, he proved belonging among the elite tier at 4-Nations. People already knew he was really good, but that tournament convinced nearly everyone he’s in the upper echelon of blueliners. If we went back to the ballot box after everyone reading this, Jake might land higher on the list.

11. Nick Suzuki

• 2025 Rank: 7

• Age: 27

• Remaining Term: 4 years

• Cap Hit: $7.9M

• Signing GM: Marc Bergevin, Oct 12, 2021

Nick Suzuki ranked top 5 in my pre-seeding, but finished 11^th in the poll tournament. His performance upsetting Tampa in round one then Buffalo in round two heavily influenced my optimism, but had less impact on voters, which happened last year too, albeit without the Montreal playoff series victories. He does have an impressive supporting cast boosting output, two of them on this list, another falling just short of the top 15 (Slafkovsky was seeded #2 pre-tournament, Substack colleagues did not share my assessment). Nick doesn’t score 100 PTS if Cole ain’t eating his passes.

One other feather in Suzuki’s cap, has not missed an NHL Game in the last 6 seasons. Last 5 years he scored 61, 66, 77, 89, 100 PTS in that order, and if that trajectory continues, you can slot him in for 109 PTS in 2026/27, though at age 27, the probably of sustaining is low, but last year I also mused he had likely already reached peak production, then he proved me wrong. I’m not making the same mistake twice. Oh, nearly forgot, he won the damned Selke this season. What were you nay-sayers thinking? I’m arguing my pre-vote seeding was more accurate than #11, but this is a competitive list and most arguably deserve higher standing.

12. Tage Thompson

• 2025 Rank: 2

• Age: 28

• Remaining Term: 4 years

• Cap Hit: $7.1M

• Signing GM: Kevyn Adams, Aug 30, 2022

Tage Thompson finished 2^nd to Jack Hughes in best contract voting in 2023 and 2025, while 2024 was plagued by injuries. Democracy was less kind to Tage in 2026 and there’s an argument he belongs higher, but the 30^th birthday drawing closer and he has an injury history. Four more years of peak Tage is a crazy bargain. Last year I mused that he could get $10M AAV if he went UFA, but given where the ceiling is resetting for elite talent, he could more than double that salary going to market tomorrow. Note to self: I’m leaning too hard on “open market price” to hit my desired word count…

For all this talk about Tage elite talent, his 81 PTS in 81 GP is only the 2^nd time in his career reaching point per game, scoring 63 PTS per 82 GP in his 529 game career. It’s the eye test telling us elite status, which was also on display for Team USA, showing the world he doesn’t slow down best-on-best. Tage signed this extension after a 68-point season (a career high at the time) then proceeded with a 94-point breakout. The security of locking in early cost him a lot of money.

13. Jackson Blake

• 2025 Rank: N/A

• Age: 23

• Remaining Term: 23 years

• Cap Hit: $5.1M

• Signing GM: Eric Tulsky, July 23, 2025

Like Stankoven, this polling taking place during the Canes Cup run boosted where Blake landed on the best bargain list, but doesn’t mean it’s not deserved. Jackson didn’t score as many playoff goals as Logan, but was on the ice for many of them and played a major role creating the opportunity (also led the Canes in playoff PTS). Getting 8-year deals on less than 100 NHL games was formerly extremely rare and generally a risky proposition, but Tulsky is looking like a genius locking the kids into these treaties, both boosting their market valuable considerably in May and June.

The only question remaining to be seen for both is where the offensive ceiling lands. Both are still bargains if they remain in the 40 to 60 PTS range, especially if they continue getting it done post-season, but we’re looking at obscene bargains if either drift into the point-per-game stratosphere. Blake has lots in common with Brandon Hagel, smaller stature, but tenacious on the forecheck and winning puck battles. If he were ever fortunate enough to get 700 minutes on the ice with a Kucherov level talent, 90 PTS is a real possibility (just unlikely in Carolina).

14. Brock Faber

• 2025 Rank: 9

• Age: 24

• Remaining Term: 7 years

• Cap Hit: $8.5M

• Signing GM: Bill Guerin, Jul 29, 2024

If we’re talking about players boosting their stock in the latest round of international play, add Brock Faber to that list, equally effective at both ends of the ice against elite competition. The arrival of Quinn Hughes to steal power play time, prompted me to trade Faber from my fantasy team, but the impact proved more positive than my panic reaction expected, because they spent 844 minutes on the ice together in the regular season. Brock finished with 15 goals and 51 PTS, the money Minnesota is saving on this agreement offsets the massive price of Kaprizov, but Quinn Hughes is getting just as much if they’re even able to retain his services.

Whatever happens with Hughes, they’re getting him at a bargain next season and have an elite top pair, paying only 40 cents (or less) on the dollar for what they provide. The only question, will Billy trade him if unable to procure his signature on a new deal, and how much of their acquisition cost will be recouped if moved? At least they won their first playoff series in a decade, so that’s a victory for the organization, even if they don’t win another until 2036.

15. Josh Doan

• 2025 Rank: N/A

• Age: 24

• Remaining Term: 7 years

• Cap Hit: $6.95M

• Signing GM: Jarmo Kekalainen, Jan 21, 2026

The stunning rise of the Buffalo Sabres and their first playoff series victory in nearly 2 decades was partially caused by the breakout of newly acquired Josh Doan, who scored 25 goals and 52 PTS (after scoring 19 PTS in 51 GP year prior in Utah). The offense was only part of the story, as hitting, forechecking, and puck battles are also formidable weapons in the arsenal. That genome seems to be appropriately valued by best bargain voters, and exactly the type of player you want in the playoffs, and Doan is part of the reason they advanced to round two.

Teammate Zach Benson might have qualified for this list had he signed his new deal sooner, another fitting the Hagel-Blake description, should compete for a spot in next year’s top 15. Doan played with Tage Thompson more than any other forward, and that proximity surely has something to do with the production jump, but Tage was also more productive than year prior, so if proximity to Doan gets the best out of Thompson, the relationship is more symbiotic than Josh waterskiing behind his boat. Ending their playoff drought makes the Doan acquisition a stunning success for Kevyn Adams Jarmo Kekalainen even if they miss playoffs for the next 7 years.

THE NEXT 25 BY POLL RESULT

When you see who fell short of the top 15, maybe “this player deserved to be higher” is an overstatement…

The best players never get dropped; the best streamers get added/dropped plenty. That’s why earning the title Streamer of the year doesn’t necessarily bring the winner prestige, because the most frequently recommended player required Yahoo ownership under 65% for most of the season, the cutoff for my weekly reports. Stock rocket winner Darren Raddysh was 9% owned week 8, up to 53% week 10, then ineligible rest of season. Not only did I count how often every player appeared on my reports, but their ownership each time, stats last 30 days, and the date. That’s how I’m able to provide scientific measurements describing how fast Raddysh blasted beyond the atmosphere.

HNF Studios wanted to host the full awards gala on our new YouTube account (please visit and subscribe) instead of a blog post, but it got a little “off the rails” by the end and control room had to cut the feed. Many of the players below spent time with my own championship team, most notably streamer of the year Beckett Sennecke and Leo Carlsson (who notched a power play assist with 3 minutes left in the last game on the last night to clinch my victory). Thus, nobody collected the grand prize of a full year premium access to my blog, with bets for approximately 1,500 NHL games. Though, I suspect my betting and fantasy audiences overlap less than you’d think.

There is still time to join my subscriber leagues, the 12-team main league is nearly full, but we still have plenty of room in the 16-team points league. Subscriptions aren’t required and it’s open to anyone. Do a good job, and your team will likely be featured in future HNF Studios productions. My skill as a video editor is growing with each new feature, building a library of sound effects, rapidly increasing my ability to pump your tires. The next video has 2 objectives, share what you get with a free subscription and for competing in my fantasy league. There’s also a short recap of my tire pumps from last year.

The first fantasy post of the season was reporting the results of my first 12 mock drafts (once from each draft slot) and this is the last fantasy piece before the subscriber league draft. Stat projections for every player are nearly finished and I’m up to 30 mock drafts completed, all saved in a spreadsheet for scientific analysis. Stay tuned for my “Fantasy Draft Cheat Sheet” which is a list of the players I drafted most often, the average pick taken, and other cool information. Last but not least before the awards, please follow me on social media. Likes fuel the factory and your engagement is deeply appreciated!

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Blue Sky

1) Streamer of the Year: Forward

• Winner: Beckett Sennecke

• Runner-up: Alexis Lafreniere

2) Streamer of the Year: Defense

• Winner: Noah Hanifin

• Runner-up: Tony DeAngelo

3) Streamer of the Year: Goalie

• Winner: Alex Lyon

• Runner-up: Jet Greaves

4) Stock Rocket Award:

Fastest ascent from rags to riches

• Winner: Darren Raddysh

• Runner-up: Leo Carlsson

5) Sleeper of the Year:

Best sleeper from my sleeper’s list.

• Winner: Pavel Dorofeyev

• Runner-up: John Gibson

6) Bust of the year:

My sleeper who had the worst season.

• Winner: Kent Johnson

• Runner-up: Zeev Buium

7) Bust Defiance

Player from my bust list who had the best season.

• Winner: Brock Nelson

• Runner-up: Sidney Crosby

8) Pinging Radar: Forward

Most watchlist appearances

• Winner: Alexis Lafreniere

• Runner-up: Dylan Cozens

9) Pinging Radar: Defense

Most watchlist appearances

• Winner: Noah Hanifin

• Runner-up: Filip Hronek

10) Pinging Radar: Goalie

Most watchlist appearances

• Winner: Dan Vladar

• Runner-up: Jet Greaves

11) If You Need Shots

Top shooting specialist.

• Winner: Owen Tippett

• Runner-up: Noah Hanifin

12) If You Need Hits

Top hitting specialist.

• Winner: Jeremy Lauzon

• Runner-up: Keifer Sherwood

Each mock is saved in a spreadsheet, not just my pick, but every competitor as well. Sharing where people named Steve are likely to draft any given player is very easy to calculate from my data, there just isn’t any reason. Those non-me picks are valuable measurements for variance of outcomes, ranges certain players are likely to be taken, etc. The list below is a spoiler for my Fantasy Cheat Sheet, which tends to be the most popular preview post in my annual arsenal. Who did I draft the most often, and what ADP. You can visit Yahoo and look up the average draft position of any given player, but novices and auto-drafting heavily influence that average. Where does an expert take players on average across 36 mocks?

Introducing HNF Studios

The biggest news since my last blog post is the creation of HNF Studios, founding a Hockeynomics Youtube channel, two of those productions being featured in this blog post. The first being my annual recruitment drive for fantasy league enrollment. Most reading this already compete in multiple leagues, many of those for money, so the marginal enjoyment of adding another free league is low. What sets this league apart? It gets written about on my blog weekly, so those who enjoy those posts can join my story. Some of you have already watched the recruitment video, but many have not. You can become a character in future HNF Studios productions.

League champion wins a free year behind the paywall, unless I win, then nobody does. It just so happens, my team Pavlov’s Dogs, is the defending champion. I’ll confess, it took an Anaheim power play goal in the dying minutes of the last game to deliver victory, but Auston 416 does get 3 free months premium service for finishing second place. A wise philosopher once said, “if you ain’t first, you’re last” and those brave enough to join should emotionally prepare for finishing last place. HNF Inc is not liable for damage to your self-esteem, but don’t worry, those who defeat me get praised, those who don’t just never get mentioned (insult never added to injury).

That said, it’s also really fun to beat me because I’ll give you props on the blog. The over-confidence is just a comedy schtick playing the wrestling heel, but make no mistake, I’m a cutthroat GM who would waive his own mother if she wasn’t producing. That said, I’m more than happy sharing advice to people paying me money helping them defeat me. Pavlov’s Dogs is fiercely competitive, but turns tricks for treats. All paid subscribers get my exact pre-draft rankings before the draft. You’ll know who I’m likely to pick next. There will be premium fantasy chat thread for paid subscribers this season, where I’ll be spoiling my Sunday waiver report throughout the week.

Join HNF Fantasy Hockey!

To join the 12-team league drafting Sept 5, click here.

To join the 16-team league drafting Sept 6, click here.

Back to the lecture at hand, my first 12 mocks. One pick from each draft position from 1 to 192. A concerned effort was made to draft a different player each pick, but at a certain point that became logistically difficult without reaching for remaining options far too early. There are a few of those below, but also kept a running worksheet of who I had taken, targeting specific unchosen player within their range of outcomes. That said, the list below will likely be very different from my final pre-draft rankings coming Sept 7, because my stat projections aren’t done yet, and all my mocking is rapid-fire. Second computer is on, beeps when it’s my turn, and I pay no attention between my picks.

There was going to be a “Winter is Coming” blog post previewing my pre-season event/posting schedule, but a video was made instead. We already have 2 videos embedded here, so check out my Youtube channel for a Game of Thrones parody. Next week is my 2025/26 Waiver Wire Awards, originally planned as “Fantasy Awards”, but there won’t be any Nathan MacKinnon or Connor McDavid, eligibility requires an appearance on a fantasy report where everyone is under 65% owned. Darren Raddysh is the leading candidate for the “Stock Rocket Award”. Week 8 he was 9% owned, week 10 he was 53% owned. By week 11 he was ineligible for weekly reports.

Most of my fantasy content is free (premium chat thread notwithstanding), and you can get it all delivered to your inbox. The paid tier is mostly gambling, but I share picks for every single game and turning a net profit on my last 3,000 moneyline/puckline picks. Over/under is a work in progress. You can get a bet for every single non-preseason game you will watch or attend this year, every game for your favorite team. Free subscribers get my best bet every night.

First 12 Mocks

1. Connor McDavid, EDM, C

2. Nathan MacKinnon, COL, C

3. Nikita Kucherov, TB, RW

4. Leon Draisaitl, EDM, C,LW

5. Macklin Celebrini, SJ, C

6. Cale Makar, COL, D

7. Kirill Kaprizov, MIN, LW

8. David Pastrnak, BOS, RW

9. Jason Robertson, DAL, LW,RW

10. Auston Matthews, TOR, C

11. Andrei Vasilevskiy, TB, G

12. Quinn Hughes, MIN, D

13. Nick Suzuki, MTL, C

14. Mikko Rantanen, DAL, RW,LW

15. Zach Werenski, CBJ, D

16. Martin Necas, COL, RW

17. Brady Tkachuk, FLA, LW,C

18. Jack Hughes, NJ, C,LW

19. Cole Caufield, MTL, RW,LW

20. Jack Eichel, VGK, C

21. Lane Hutson, MTL, D

22. Evan Bouchard, EDM, D

23. Matt Boldy, MIN, LW,RW

24. Kyle Connor, WPG, LW

25. Matthew Tkachuk, FLA, LW,RW

26. Tage Thompson, BUF, C,RW

27. Logan Thompson, WSH, G

28. Jake Guentzel, TB, LW,RW

29. Wyatt Johnston, DAL, C,RW

30. Leo Carlsson, ANA, C

31. Rasmus Dahlin, BUF, D

32. Jake Oettinger, DAL, G

33. Dylan Guenther, UTA, RW,LW

34. Matthew Schaefer, NYI, D

35. Cutter Gauthier, ANA, LW,RW,C

36. Brandon Hagel, TB, LW,RW

37. Igor Shesterkin, NYR, G

38. Tim Stutzle, OTT, LW,C

39. Sam Reinhart, FLA, RW

40. Juraj Slafkovsky, MTL, LW,RW

41. William Nylander, TOR, RW,C

42. Clayton Keller, UTA, RW,LW

43. Artemi Panarin, LA, LW

44. Sidney Crosby, PIT, C

45. Aleksander Barkov, FLA, C

46. Mitch Marner, VGK, RW,LW,C

47. Sam Reinhart, FLA, RW

48. Ilya Sorokin, NYI, G

49. Igor Shesterkin, NYR, G

50. Tim Stutzle, OTT, LW,C

51. Alex DeBrincat, DET, RW,LW

52. Filip Forsberg, NSH, LW

53. Adrian Kempe, LA, RW

54. Jesper Wallstedt, MIN, G

55. Jeremy Swayman, BOS, G

56. Jake Sanderson, OTT, D

57. Kirill Marchenko, CBJ, RW

58. Moritz Seider, DET, D

59. Jakob Chychrun, WSH, D

60. Will Smith, SJ, LW,RW

61. Connor Bedard, CHI, C,RW

62. Brayden Point, TB, C

63. Porter Martone, PHI, RW

64. Jesper Bratt, NJ, LW,RW

65. Adam Fantilli, CBJ, C

66. Dylan Larkin, DET, C

67. Pavel Dorofeyev, NYR, LW,RW

68. Adam Fox, NYR, D

69. Lucas Raymond, DET, RW

70. Brandon Bussi, CAR, G

71. Ivan Demidov, MTL, RW

72. Jesper Bratt, NJ, LW,RW

73. Sebastian Aho, CAR, C

74. Karel Vejmelka, UTA, G

75. Jackson LaCombe, ANA, D

76. Drake Batherson, OTT, RW,LW

77. Ivan Demidov, MTL, RW

78. Zach Hyman, EDM, LW,RW

79. Beckett Sennecke, ANA, RW

80. J.T. Miller, NYR, RW,C,LW

81. Cole Hutson, WSH, D

82. Timo Meier, NJ, RW,LW

83. Nick Schmaltz, UTA, C,RW

84. Shayne Gostisbehere, CAR, D

85. Victor Hedman, TB, D

86. Dylan Holloway, STL, LW,C

87. J.T. Miller, NYR, RW,C,LW

88. Erik Karlsson, PIT, D

89. Gavin McKenna, TOR, LW

90. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, BUF, G

91. Jakub Dobes, MTL, G

92. Brock Faber, MIN, D

93. Mikhail Sergachev, UTA, D

94. Matthew Knies, TOR, LW,RW

95. Shea Theodore, VGK, D

96. MacKenzie Weegar, UTA, D

97. Brandt Clarke, LA, D

98. Roman Josi, NSH, D

99. Carter Hart, VGK, G

100. Charlie McAvoy, BOS, D

101. Victor Hedman, TB, D

102. Morgan Geekie, BOS, C,RW,LW

103. Josh Morrissey, WPG, D

104. Andrei Svechnikov, CAR, RW,LW

105. Sergei Bobrovsky, TOR, G

106. Mark Stone, VGK, RW

107. John Carlson, TB, D

108. Linus Ullmark, OTT, G

109. Tom Wilson, WSH, RW

110. Noah Dobson, MTL, D

111. John Tavares, TOR, C

112. Carter Hart, VGK, G

113. Nico Hischier, NJ, C

114. Logan Cooley, UTA, C

115. Seth Jones, FLA, D

116. Lukas Dostal, ANA, G

117. Linus Ullmark, OTT, G

118. Bowen Byram, CHI, D

119. Luke Hughes, NJ, D

120. Bowen Byram, CHI, D

121. Thomas Harley, DAL, D

122. Seth Jones, FLA, D

123. Brandon Montour, SEA, D

124. Sergei Bobrovsky, TOR, G

125. Spencer Knight, CHI, G

126. Zayne Parekh, CGY, D

127. Philip Broberg, STL, D

128. Vince Dunn, SEA, D

129. Joel Hofer, STL, G

130. Nikolaj Ehlers, CAR, LW

131. Luke Hughes, NJ, D

132. Mathew Barzal, NYI, C,RW

133. Mattias Samuelsson, BUF, D

134. Jet Greaves, CBJ, G

135. Alexander Nikishin, CAR, D

136. Filip Hronek, VAN, D

137. Thomas Chabot, OTT, D

138. Alexander Nikishin, CAR, D

139. K’Andre Miller, CAR, D

140. Filip Hronek, VAN, D

141. Jet Greaves, CBJ, G

142. Travis Konecny, PHI, RW,LW

143. Dan Vladar, PHI, G

144. Josh Doan, BUF, RW

145. Logan Stankoven, CAR, C,RW

146. Juuse Saros, NSH, G

147. Quinton Byfield, LA, C

148. Zeev Buium, VAN, D

149. Trevor Zegras, PHI, C,LW,RW

150. Owen Power, BUF, D

151. Frederik Andersen, EDM, G

152. Justin Faulk, DET, D

153. Colton Parayko, STL, D

154. Dan Vladar, PHI, G

155. Jackson Blake, CAR, RW

156. Joel Eriksson Ek, MIN, C

157. Alexis Lafreniere, NYR, LW,RW

158. Lukas Dostal, ANA, G

159. Evgeni Malkin, PIT, C,LW,RW

160. Nico Hischier, NJ, C

161. John Gibson, DET, G

162. Nazem Kadri, COL, C,LW

163. Seth Jarvis, CAR, LW,RW

164. Jimmy Snuggerud, STL, RW

165. Jordan Kyrou, WSH, RW

166. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, EDM, C,LW

167. Vincent Trocheck, UTA, C

168. Matt Duchene, DAL, C,RW

169. Brad Marchand, FLA, LW,RW

170. Elias Pettersson, VAN, C

171. Frank Nazar, CHI, C

172. Dylan Strome, WSH, C

173. JJ Peterka, BOS, RW,LW

174. Tomas Hertl, VGK, C,LW

175. Gabe Perreault, NYR, RW

176. Carter Verhaeghe, FLA, LW

177. Ryan O’Reilly, NSH, C

178. Pyotr Kochetkov, CAR, G

179. Elias Pettersson, VAN, C

180. Anton Frondell, CHI, C

181. Michael Misa, SJ, C

182. Gabe Perreault, NYR, RW

183. Konsta Helenius, BUF, C

184. Juuse Saros, NSH, G

185. Mats Zuccarello, LA, RW

186. Matvei Michkov, PHI, RW,LW

187. Luke Evangelista, NSH, LW,RW

188. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, EDM, C,LW

189. Anton Frondell, CHI, C

190. Gabriel Landeskog, COL, LW,RW

191. Kiefer Sherwood, SJ, RW,LW

192. Artturi Lehkonen, COL, RW,LW

Welcome to my first annual NHL player valuation blog post, a tradition beginning last spring in Substack chat posting team-by-team player valuations. Technically, the tradition pre-dates my chat thread presence, as placing dollar values on every player’s stat line at the end of each regular season for the purpose of ranking the league’s best and worst contracts has been happening annually for more than a decade. This post’s purpose is to display the results of my Expected Free Agent Value model (aka: EFA) for the 2025/26 season, most valuable players, most overpaid, and most underpaid. There is a basic summary of EFA mechanics, but the stat graphics are doing most of the heavy lifting here.

Expected Free Agent Value

My database of non-entry level contracts is closing in on 11,000. That includes every single deal signed since the cap became law, where the player played at least 1 NHL game under that deal. Entry level I don’t really care about as much, just because they are cookie cutter structures, so none are included in my best/worst lists, but I do have a worksheet with thousands of those too. My database also has hundreds of contracts with zero NHL GP, because those were needed for my NHL Draft pick spreadsheet. This is the data that’s been building my “Expected Free Agent Value” model over the last decade.

The concept is using “year -1” stats vs salary obtained in free agency for newest contract data to recalibrate the EFA model; which doesn’t care about age or past performance, it just assigns dollar values to annual stat lines. That’s also why the raw values are not used for my annual contract predictions (2026 and 2027 are available). They are highly correlated to my final prediction, but those lean more into age/tier dependent comparables. The first place to start building your model is the floor. I’m using stats per 82 GP, minimum 30 GP. Defensemen who received league minimum averaged 12 PTS per 82 GP, 15 minutes of ice per game.

The reason I use average stat line to determine league min first and draw a hard line in the sand is because you’ll get players like a Ryan Reaves type who gets much more than minimum for a much worse stat line, which will pull your regression line farther away from the majority to close gap with outliers. League minimum is by far the most common salary awarded, and my modelling aims for a similar percentage. Chat GPT was challenged to build a better model using the same data, and significantly over-predicted several players receiving min, but had a better correlation coefficient.

In one bundle defense, there were 5 outliers significantly pulling up the line. Ben Chiarot, Joel Edmundson, Matt Dumba, Brett Pesce, Will Borgen, but 75% of the data was under the regression line. Does the entire lower tier deserve more money because a few defensive specialists broke the bank? Not in my modelling. My goal is to get 50% above the line and 50% below (also known as quantile regression). I don’t want to juice the EFA of the 75% majority just to close the distance with outliers. You’ll end up predicting above million dollars for a whole bunch of players who get $850K (the new league min).

A major inefficiency was corrected with one specific multiplier. Defense between 18 and 22 minutes ATOI get a premium for killing penalties. If you average 0 PK ice, you lose $1M. At SHI=1, the multiplier is zero. You can get a million-dollar bonus for 3.5 minutes per game. This put me closer to actual salary on 30 different players out of 58. Chat GPT didn’t find that, I did. What GPT flagged was 16 to 20 minutes had a high error rate, so I dug deeper on that group. There was also a smaller premium for shots per minute on defense >20min ATOI.

Problem Pricing Elite Goalies

One big problem: Oettinger, Hellebuyck, Swayman, Saros, Sorokin set the new price line for elite goalies, Shesterkin is an outlier but only because he demanded market price or he would test the market (like Kaprizov). The large cluster around $8M is the price for that level of goalie, except that none of them went to market accepting highest bid. Had any done that, they could have received closer to the Shesterkin price (maybe less term). Swayman was available as RFA but had only played in tandems to that point. It is not what the market priced those assets, it’s how they priced themselves.

One got re-signed, then others signed the same contract in the weeks that followed. They were all 7-8 years into their mid-to-late 30s, so security was valued over testing the open market. This made it necessary to pull my regression line closer to Shesterkin. Why? When the properly adjusted EFA was retro-actively applied to the last 20 years of seasons versus my previous model (which still priced the elite tier in the Bobrovsky, Vasilevskiy, Price range), it substantially punished the highest levels of usage, where the current market has more time shares and fewer Brodeur-Luongo workhorses.

The 15 stat lines pulled down the most averaged 65 GP with .925 SV%, majority Vezina nominated, pulled down by an average of $1.75M AAV. The 15 pulled up the most, averaged 72 GP and -15 goals saved above average (by an avg of $2M), a few objectively terrible seasons. Nobody in the recent sample played even close to that many minutes and was that much below average. So, the current market doesn’t have any observations in that zone. If you’re that bad recently, average GP is 25. You don’t get 70 starts. My recalibrated model assigned bad numbers to sample types no longer existing.

Just because that one cluster of elite goalies all locked in around the same price without hitting the open market, doesn’t mean their stat line wasn’t worth more. If they all signed at a “bargain price”, then the model doesn’t show that as a bargain. Just earning your salary. The ceiling needs to be what the market would pay if a Vezina nominated goalie hit the open that summer, which pretty much never happens, and the top tier is such a small sample. At less than 2000 minutes, difference between new and old models was relatively small. It was >2000min requiring manual adjustment.

50 Most Valuable Players

One thing on the image below, the adjusted cap is set for 2027, EFA too. EFA 82 is the value per 82 GP. Age is the value on Sept 15, 2025. Majority of those players are all 1-year older as of today. Remember, it’s hard setting a wage ceiling when so many take discounts to play in Florida, Tampa, Vegas, Dallas. McDavid taking 12.5 was borderline criminal.

50 Most Overpaid Players

Here is a spoiler alert for the upcoming worst contract tournament, but to qualify, at least 2 years need to be remaining. This is just amount overpaid for this past season (except adjusted cap for 2027 dollars, which is how these are graded against historical contracts). One note, Shesterkin, Hellebuyck, Ullmark, Demko, all had their EFA reduced by missing games. Hellebuyck only had league average save percentage for his 52 GP. Lukas Dostal had a couple rough patches this season, but I’m confident he’ll bounce back as that young core gets older and more defensively responsible.

50 Most Underpaid Players

9-Year EFA

Forecasting the next 9 years of every player presented some challenges, like will Darren Raddysh be receiving power play passes from Nikita Kucherov? Younger players with small pro samples have an especially large margin of error, but we do this because it enables placing EFA estimates on the next 9 years to grade every contract signed this summer. These are the top 50 players summing all 9 years, acknowledging that a large majority of NHL players won’t be in the league for 9 more years. This also adjusts for projected cap increases, including the rising league minimum, which is heading for >$1M in the next few years.

Team-by-Team Contract Reports

There is a special chat thread where you can find a cap sheet for all 32 teams (I just finished Ottawa in descending alphabetic order), but here we’ll include the reports from the two finals teams, Carolina and Vegas.

Vegas was my first of 32 team roster valuations, Marner and Hart likely heading to their best contracts list at next update. My forecasting model may underestimate Dorofeyev’s ceiling, but elite shooter surrounded by elite playmakers. If he gets a $9M offer sheet from Vancouver, I don’t think they’re getting a $9M player, but his stat line could reach that level staying in Vegas (who probably can’t afford $9M under the cap). I may be overestimating the 9-year arch of Bowman, but young and productive (on an elite team).

Adin Hill is the only Vegas player competing in the 2026 worst NHL contract tournament. None competing for best contract either, because it requires at least 2 years left and under $10M aav. There’s a case for Howden, though a chunk of that production is attributable to those sharing ice.

The Carolina Hurricanes have 5 players competing in this year’s “best contract under $10M AAV” tournament, Aho, Jarvis, Blake, Stankoven, and Svechnikov. K’Andre Miller was considered and probably belongs in the tournament, but it was a competitive field. Normally Stanley Cup champs are excluded from the worst contract ranks, but both Adin Hill and Jesperi Kotkaniemi are eligible because they’re not playing in playoffs. We’ll see how well Ehlers ages, but if Canes win the Cup, they’ll have no regrets about that deal.

My annual best/worst contract poll tournament has arrived, starting with the best bargains under $10M AAV. The worst contract tourney doesn’t begin until July, because we’re going to adding nominees in the opening 2 weeks of free agency. Contracts above replacement level salary signed in July are far more likely to be bad than good. My database for skaters has 1400 deals signed in July above a year one adjusted cap hit of $2M; 245 are on or nominated for one of my team-by team best contract lists, 455 on a worst list. That’s a 17% home run rate, 32% strikeout rate. Remember, there are an equal number of total deals on the collective best-worst lists.

The three main participation qualifying requirements are minimum 2 years remaining, no entry level, and <$10M AAV. That salary cap has been in place for the last 4 years as the real cap is rising, but I’ve decided to leave my cap at $10M for at least another year. This tournament has always excluded the highest paid players, intended as a “best bargain” theme; but make no mistake, McDavid and MacKinnon at $12.5M are giant bargains. The poll question has always asked “most value remaining”; this election proceeding acknowledging, Nate Dog probably has more value remaining than everyone in this tournament and would like beat the champion 1-on-1. Jack Eichel might too.

Even with the lower ceiling casting a narrower net, there’s no shortage of big fish in the haul. The field is robust, and my pre-seeding process proved very difficult. That seeding is generally just eyeballed and completed manually in 20 minutes. You don’t see the full seeding, it just helps with who participates in each poll, the top 16 getting a bye to the next round (see next image). Past tournaments, those sweet 16 tend to crush the 17-60 cream which rose to the top, so round one loses relevance, but also helps me sort the honorable mentions, ranked by voting, my pick in each poll is the tiebreaker. First attempt at a Twitter poll yielded only 7 votes, so we’re hosting the rest here, voting booths open and confidential.

To help sort this mess, I’ve recruited two Substack colleagues to assist, offering their expert opinions, My Analytics Corner and Bolts Breakdown. Yes, one is an expert on all things Tampa but refrained from voting for Point and Vasilevskiy, who just won the Vezina trophy. That’s professionalism and restraint, but we’ll see if that discretion continues once Hagel is on the ballot next round. You are encouraged to visit their sites and subscribe, according to Substack, many of you are from the state of Florida. Last I checked, Pennsylvania is actually my largest state for subscribers. If Canada was a state, it would be #1, but 60% of you are American. Touchy subject for my fellow Canadians…

One note on the expert picks, their ballots were in alphabetical order and they did not know who the others selected. They also didn’t get the benefit of reviewing my projections and cost/benefit analysis, using their own instincts and data to make choices. The ballots below however, are ranked according to seed, with my initial seeding adjusted based on colleague choices. Is putting the top seed in the top slot a fair, unbiased way to run elections? Maybe not if you’re electing city council, but I’ve been doing these lists for 15 years, evolving advanced modelling. I should get more votes, but Substack doesn’t allow weighted voting. Ranked ballots are the best way to let expertise guide voters.

If you want to know the contracts that free agents will sign this summer, check out my 2026 Final Free Agency Predictions and 2027 Early Predictions. Next up this week is my player valuation post, all of which are open to free subscribers. My paid tier is mostly gambling content, and we’re having a summer sale on annual memberships, $50 buys you a full year, some cool spreadsheets, and bets on the next 1,400 NHL games. There is a premium chat thread for team-by-team cap reports (so far Anaheim to Minnesota are up), and a thread for free subscribers where I’ll be discussing the results of these polls.

These polls stay open for one week! Only subscribers can vote, but free subscription is sufficient. My preference was opening this to everyone and max voter participation, but Substack does not allow that as an option. The Substack colleagues votes might not be counted until polls close because I’m not forcing them to subscribe, but they might not actually vote in the official poll below.

UPDATE: First draft accidently had Logan Thompson twice and missing Logan Stankoven. My bad. That has been fixed, but we lost a vote.

POLL 1

Doan is the heavy favorite to win this poll and contender to land in the top 15 multiple more time before it ends, the unanimous choice of the Substack Tribunal. Protas is the most nominally underpaid, but 4 fewer years remaining than Doan. Geekie is the highest scorer on this list, but some of that is Pasta exposure. Eriksson Ek has recurring injury issues, but a Selke level center when healthy.

• Hockeynomics: Josh Doan

• My Analytics Corner: Josh Doan

• Bolts Breakdown: Josh Doan

POLL 2

Accusing me of Red Wings bias with Lucas Raymond being the top seed is entirely justified, but that’s also how my forecast/grading models would have ranked, and how my Substack colleagues voted. We’ll see how much Hyman’s got left in the tank, but Oilers would trade him in a heart beat for Lucas Raymond, 10 years younger and triple the term remaining. I like Holloway but he may not have Raymond’s ceiling. Troy Terry was nearly point per game and has very talented players around him, but closing in on the 30^th birthday.

• Hockeynomics: Lucas Raymond

• My Analytics Corner: Lucas Raymond

• Bolts Breakdown: Lucas Raymond

POLL 3

Logan Thompson was a Vezina finalist has a strong case for best active goalie contract, approaching 30^th birthday but that’s less concerning for goalies, especially one who spent a lot of time last few seasons as a back-up or time sharing tandem. Sebastian Aho would probably get more of a Stanley Cup final boost if he was producing more. 30^th birthday coming soon, but good chance he keeps himself in great shape and should age well. Keller has been a staple on this annual list the last few years, but time is running out. Robert Thomas was point per game and younger/cheaper than Aho.

• Hockeynomics: Logan Thompson

• My Analytics Corner: Logan Thompson

• Bolts Breakdown: Logan Thompson

POLL 4

My feelings on this poll changed since Larkin requested a trade from Detroit. I’m suddenly looking at a 30-year-old player who can’t even get his team into playoffs as a number one center and chokes every March. Now he wants to go somewhere where more capable players can do the heavy lifting for him. He’s a quitter displaying poor leadership. My vote is Josh Morrissey, loyal teammate with 54 career playoff games. Even Samuelsson just helped end a big playoff drought. Curious to see where Luke Hughes ceiling reaches, it could be high. My Substack colleagues both like the cry baby quitter.

• Hockeynomics: Josh Morrissey

• My Analytics Corner: Dylan Larkin

• Bolts Breakdown: Dylan Larkin

Gustav Forsling was our unanimous choice in this one, even by the Lightning fan who refrained from the newly crowned best NHL goalie, adding credibility in the process. Power might be divisive, because people want him to use the big body more, which he was starting to do in playoffs. I’m optimistic there’s still room for growth offensively, it’s just limited by Dahlin eating up the primary PP minutes. That Josi contract has aged better than originally expected, hopefully he can stay healthy.

• Hockeynomics: Gustav Forsling

• My Analytics Corner: Gustav Forsling

• Bolts Breakdown: Gustav Forsling

POLL 6

Our first poll where all three experts picked different answers. Reinhart is my pick, but 6 years left past 30^th birthday is risky. I’m similarly concerned about Matthew Tkachuk wear and tear, but he’s a beast when healthy. Stankoven is the darkhorse here, top choice for Bolts Breakdown. He’s probably the Conn Smythe trophy winner if Carolina pulls off a comeback, and he’s better in playoffs than regular season. I’m almost considering changing my mind, but not quite.

• Hockeynomics: Sam Reinhart

• My Analytics Corner: Matthew Tkachuk

• Bolts Breakdown: Logan Stankoven

POLL 7

Zach Werenski was very nearly my choice in this poll, but ultimately Bratt has 5 years left at a much cheaper ticket. Werenski’s stat line was worth $13.8M this season, Bratt $8.6M. It’s much easier to find a 70-point forward than a Norris-level defenseman. Byfield got significant votes in previous tournaments, but hasn’t really reached the level people expected when casting those votes. Dustin Wolf took a step backwards this season, but so did the team in front of him, who traded half their defense.

• Hockeynomics: Jesper Bratt

• My Analytics Corner: Jesper Bratt

• Bolts Breakdown: Jesper Bratt

The Frank Nazar career is still a small sample, but my forecast modelling loves this contract. Bolts Breakdown independently agreed, (just don’t tell Brayden Point, his feelings will be hurt), while My Analytics Corner likes Svechnikov. Point battled injury this season and did not produce to his normal standards, all his remaining term past age 30, and I get it. Respect to the Lightning fan for not boosting based on past accomplishments. At this point, I’m wondering where the Beniers ceiling will land, and if it’s much higher than 50 PTS. A shocking number of young players peak at 23, not the historical “age 27” range.

• Hockeynomics: Frank Nazar

• My Analytics Corner: Andrei Svechnikov

• Bolts Breakdown: Frank Nazar

I’ll be honest, my modelling flagged some risk in this Swayman deal and my pick was torn between him (carrying an underserving Bruins team into the playoffs) and Lundell (who’s stock was much higher last June than right now). Swayman would get a monster contract if he was UFA this summer, at least the Shesterkin price, highest bidder might go even higher. He can carry you into playoffs, Lundell won’t by himself. I’m a little surprised none of us voted for Brady Tkachuk, high on this list since it was signed, but only 2 years remaining and battled injury. Trocheck was a giant bargain few seasons, I’m a little concerned about his age and Rangers possibly retooling, but if he was UFA this summer he’d probably command $10M on a short-term deal.

• Hockeynomics: Jeremy Swayman

• My Analytics Corner: Jeremy Swayman

• Bolts Breakdown: Vincent Trocheck

Before playoffs my vote would likely have been Knies, but seeing that Canes second line elevates Blake to a higher level, and my modelling absolutely LOVES that contract. He was the unanimous choice among the experts, all of us watching playoffs and witnessing a rising trajectory. He could/should be staple on this list for years to come. Dobson stock is also higher than pre-playoffs, another potential bargain on the Habs cap sheet. Sergachev looks to have put the injury issues behind him, putting up excellent numbers as Utah’s top D, winning a championship with my fantasy team in the subscriber league.

• Hockeynomics: Jackson Blake

• My Analytics Corner: Jackson Blake

• Bolts Breakdown: Jackson Blake

The last poll is the second we all had different picks, and anyone can win. My feelings have Heiskanen as the best, youngest, and cheapest D on this list, but you get an extra year with McAvoy, who would have been my second pick. The best case for Fox is how bad the Rangers performed while he was injured, the best PTS per game on this list. Spencer Knight was excellent this season, we’ll see if he can continue that upward trajectory.

• Hockeynomics: Miro Heiskanen

• My Analytics Corner: Adam Fox

• Bolts Breakdown: Spencer Knight

Welcome to my first attempt predicting the summer 2027 NHL free agent class, none of which have signed yet because eligibility begins July 1^st. Last summer featured Connor McDavid, who signed for substantially less than market value and this year features more generational talent, especially on the blueline with Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar due new deals. If either player decides to test the open market and take the highest bid, either could reset the price ceiling on defense, but Makar will probably stay in Colorado at a team-friendly price to continue competing for Stanley Cups.

If the Hockeynomics Factory Sportsbook were taking over/under wagers for these term/AAV and last June you bet all the overs, hypothetically, you would have broken my bank, driving HnF Inc into bankruptcy. That wasn’t because the “expected free agent value” (aka: EFA) modelling was flawed, it’s because players who receive/accept early extensions tend to be for more money on average (both nominally and relative to stat lines), generally required when asking players to forgo open market bidding (my predictions didn’t properly account for extension price). You get Blake-Stankoven young talent types who are overpaid long-term before producing a deserving stat line, but team understands their trajectory and willing to take that risk (which can backfire with Kotkaniemi types).

Whether it is older players aging well or young guns on upward trajectories, it tends to be players in those two upper echelons who get offered extensions. Meanwhile, players aged 25 to 32 are very unlikely to accept pay cuts before hitting the open market unless sufficient term is attached. At the top of my mind this attempt at early predictions, was actually contemplating extension price, often above what I believe the player is worth. Maybe the best way to do this is treating every 2026 and 2027 FA as pending, then building a model converting pending to extension, but I’m thinking this after the predictions are already finished and about to be published.

There is more discussion of my EFA process in the Final 2026 Predictions post, even more in the upcoming player valuation post, so I’ll avoid repetition here. EFA is 94% correlated to my prediction (lower correlation at higher income levels) and is the primary driver, but my process is listing every pending free agent against the recent comparables, then scroll up and down at different ages manually assigning values merging comps and modelling, first pass doing 2026 and 2027 together. Subsequent tweaking stacked 2027 alone and extension parameters pondered separately.

My idea of doing early and final together and building an extension model would be easy at different age and asset types to see what’s the bonus on top of normal EFA for signing before midseason (when my midseason predictions are revised and posted). A majority of these players will not be extended before midseason, especially at lower income levels, a thought crossing my mind several times while painstakingly plotting and re-tweaking for accuracy.

Remember, my primary goal is getting each and every one of these exactly correct, not preaching what each player SHOULD be worth, as many forecasters like Dom at the Athletic enjoy. My modelling is attempting to predict what the market will pay, and me too. It’s certainly not an efficient market, but I’ll assume on average it tends to be right. This list especially has several players with expected salaries above what I believe they’re really worth because they’re unlikely extending for a pay cut and/or teams tend to overpay for that asset class.

UFA FORWARDS

UFA DEFENSE

RFA FORWARDS

RFA DEFENSE

GOALIES

Welcome to the 3^rd iteration of my July 2026 free agency contract predictions, the first dropping one year ago for anyone extension eligible July 1^st 2026, the next at midseason with a depleted list of eligible players. Here we are within spitting distance of July 1^st and there are no free agents left. My annual “final predictions” list could be cancelled for lack of available options, but enough meat remains on the bone to justify posting, maybe not a feeding frenzy, just a late-night snack. Time requirements were minimal considering the full list made in January provided an excellent starting point.

Those remaining unsigned have new stats on the board since the previous projection, so minds have changed, the market shifting, especially with playoffs unfolding. There are players still active in May and June who are adding dollars to their next deal. Both myself and the market are smarter than we were 5 months ago, armed with more knowledge than previous prognostications. The best new weapon in my arsenal is a re-calibrated “expected free agent value” model, which puts a price on single-season stat lines. Take every new contract signed in the last 3 years (updated with every current deal) and the stat line earning that cash, throw them up on a scatterplot.

Expected Free Agent Value

We’ll dig deeper into the EFA modelling in my player valuation post coming soon, but it’s more of a “median regression” than traditional least squares you learn in Stats 101. I don’t bend lines towards outliers, we want 50% above, 50% below, which is also called percentile/quantile regression. If Broberg gets $4.5M after very few games played, I’m not overestimating everyone else like him just to get a higher correlation coefficient. We’re not playing in an efficient marketplace. Sam Reinhart choosing to stay in Florida for a discount does not diminish what the open market would pay for a 50-goal scorer if one ever hit the market.

The 2026 EFA recalibration was the first using Chat GPT as a math consultant. My previous EFA model was the baseline, I attempt manually fitting new median regression lines through the heart of the data, then challenge GPT to do a better job. Yes, it is still prone to hallucinations, or taking short-cuts without using the advanced tools at its disposal, but you can’t bluff model construction because the newly recommended version can be thrown up on a scatterplot and tested empirically for better fit. My model evolved over the last decade predicting contracts every summer, recalibrated annually for accuracy, helping strengthen my proficiency overseeing GPT’s improvement attempts.

One final note on the EFA process, the predictions below are not the raw values, they’re manually inputted representations of the algorithm in my brain, making adjustment based on age, current salary, recent comparables, playoff performance, perceived market demand, but also 94% correlated to EFA. This is always the process, but EFA still tends to be closer to final outcomes than my human brain on average. My biggest concern at posting is scarcity of good UFA options will drive all these prices higher than EFA or my brain are currently anticipating. We’ll find out soon.

Best/Worst NHL Contracts

The preliminary 2027 predictions are also finished and dropping in the next few days. Not only do I have predictions for 636 free agent contracts, but also have the infrastructure in place to grade each new deal signed, having forecast the next 9 years of every player (which does have a big margin of error, especially on small sample careers). Grades have also been assigned to the remainder of every active contract, and polling for my annual leaguewide best/worst titles is coming very soon. There’s a new chat thread open to free subscribers dedicated to the tournament, where I’ll be discussing deals and posting/discussing poll results. Everyone welcome!

Team Cap Reports

On the aforementioned subject of player valuations, another new chat thread launched for paid subscribers titled “Team Contract/Cap Reports” where you can see 2025/26 stat lines for each team, their associated EFA values, and grades for remaining time under contract. Inter-mixed with stat graphics will be my commentary on their active/future contracts, value, who is being nominated for my team-by-team best/worst cap era contracts (access my Thought Vault to view those), and any other relevant thoughts entering my brain. More will be revealed on that front in my upcoming Player Valuation post, available to free subscribers too, with the team reports for Vegas and Carolina.

Summer Subscription Sale!

As June begins, so too does my annual summer sale on annual subscriptions! The price is dropping from a sensual $69, down to $50 Canadian currency (extra affordable if you’re paying with USA $$$). If you’d like additional details about what you’re buying, click here, but the primary feature is betting picks for roughly the next 1,400 NHL games. There’s less meat on the bone if you don’t gamble, but will include additional fantasy hockey content, and you get access to some of my personal spreadsheets (including the player valuation spreadsheet used for team cap reports). You’re encouraged to slide into my DMs and even request spreadsheets for areas of interest.

UFA FORWARDS

UFA DEFENSE

RFA FORWARDS

RFA DEFENSE

GOALIES

There were 71 round two games last 3 seasons, home teams went 35-36, over 5.5 went 27-18, under 6.5 went 17-9. Home teams favored by at least -150 were terrible wagers. Home favorite moneyline was easily my worst demographic, followed by over 6.5 and under 5.5. My over/under was brutal in round one so I’m not sharing much advice for optimal handling in this report, given my OU confidence is at an all-time low, scrubbed from public pick graphics. There will be some soul searching and re-designing how OU models are structured this summer, but the historical data leans over 5.5 and under 6.5, but no guarantee of history repeating.

Sorting the last 71 R2 games by home moneyline revealed not much profitability in the tails, but road moneyline is a tremendous bet when the home moneyline is between -120 and -190. Road favorites are 21-4 covering +1.5 goals. One observation about round two: even strength shot share in round one has a negative correlation with win % in round two. That’s because 4 of the 6 highest values lost their round two series. The highest correlation to R2 W% was R1 W%. Teams who win round one faster have an advantage against opponents who played more games, but often the two teams both won their previous round in 6.

Here’s a look at the last 12 round two series with lines and wins. The right-hand side are my picks. Good news, there won’t be any Toronto reverse jinx attempts in 2026. The higher seed is 6-6, so finishing with a better regular season has a slightly negative correlation to winning in round two. Whereas the betting favorites are 8-4. Winnipeg winning the west last year, and Florida upsetting Toronto as the 8-seed were responsible for a big chunk of that slightly negative correlation. The betting favorite went 4-0 last season, so instead of a regression model, we (my and GPT) built an “upset probability” model.

Basically, we (me and GPT) took the 4 teams who won upsets, the 4 who lost, take the average of every stat for those 2 groups, looking for the variable with the most significant difference between groups, which in this case is road GF% in round one. Below is an image with the last 12 R2 game ones. Home favorites went 2-5, road favorites went 2-3. The 5 biggest favorites all lost. A big round two game one rule. DON’T PAY TAXES ON FAVORITES!!! Home teams are 8-4 in game two. Dogs that had the best road GF% in round one are the most likely to stage game one (and series) upsets. Being good on the road in round one is important for underdog success round two.

The other good news is my moneyline/puckline models performing well in round one, so they will continue being my primary signal moving into round two. Analysis for this preview began on April 22, nearly all of this report spoiled for paid subscribers if they’ve been reading all my new posts. One way macro trends will be included statistically is with profit scores, with me constructing two different models to estimate profit score based on the lines last 3 playoffs. Only one of those models is being shared here, but also provides free subscribers with a general guide game-by-game, if you trust the historical numbers (after reading my intro).

The first isn’t exactly a “model”, just profit scores for home/road, fave/dog each game of a series, reflected in the image below. These exact scores for these exact situations will be in round two pick graphics, and will be part of the average confidence score guiding my decisions. The other model produces a profit score estimate based on home moneyline, which will also be in the pick graphics. These are replacing “Line Range Historically” and “Models with Teams” in the current graphics for game one round two. Take the dog in game one and the home team game two are the biggest macro level takeaways (history repeating is not guaranteed).

There won’t be any free chat threads this round, but if you’re a freebie getting picks off Substack chat, you should also be getting my public posts on their social platform. All approved picks are shared there 15-20 minutes before puck drop, at puck drop on Twitter, a few hours before the game on Instagram. I’m still trying to build my Instagram following, so that’s where free plays drop first. Paid subscribers get all the picks the moment they’re made, which is often shortly after the final buzzer for early games, next morning for late games. My game one pick for the first three series are included below, nearly all of the round one chat threads unlocked for free subscribers if you want to review these teams.

Reminder to all subscribers, the Hockeynomics Factory doesn’t slow production in the spring and summer. There are no more weekly reports and diminishing daily bets shared, but I’m already waist deep in contract analytics and player valuations. We’re not getting a July “free agent frenzy” with no free agents remaining, but my 2027 preliminary prediction list drops in June. Right now I’m just updating my contracts database with all the new deals signed, then I’m recalibrating my “expected free agent value” model adjusting for shifting market conditions, and forecasting the next 9 years of every player to assign grades to all active deals (excluding minor leaguers who didn’t play NHL this season or last).

The heavy lifting for player forecasts and contract valuations will be wrapped by the time Lord Stanley’s mug is awarded, because the next day my betting model recalibration project begins, where all paid subscribers get a tutorial in model building, and a peak behind the curtain. Most annual subscribers already have a spreadsheet to build betting models and a chat thread explaining how to use it (which is open to everyone if you want to preview the goods before committing), and will get a new one this summer once my new sheet is ready. More spreadsheets are coming, shared exclusively with annual subscribers!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

Philadelphia vs Carolina

Series Pick: Carolina (-330), in 6 games (+350)

Our first confirmed series of the divisional championships, Flyers vs Hurricanes, with Carolina a -330 favorite to advance. Looking at some head-to-head stats between these teams, Canes won 13 of the last 15 matches, dominating even strength shot share 63%. I’m also turning a big profit in those 15 GP, so hopefully that will spill into this series. My pick for the series was decided before Philly-Pittsburgh ended, spoiled in the chat, but I’m taking Carolina. The only undecided aspect last week was 5 or 6 games, and because Philly had a 61% road GF% in round one, and that’s the primary upset indicator, Canes were just better at 67%, and the next best R2 indicator is speed of dispatching R1 opponent, Canes 2 games faster.

Tocchet’s system has produced a very goalie friendly environment, which gets us to the Philly x-factor, Dan Vladar. Carolina’s biggest vulnerability previous playoffs were hot goalies, where peppering low danger shots from everywhere produces less offense than shaky goaltending. Vladar has some incredible stretches and was fantastic collecting a shutout win game six, but also let in a couple bad goals. Danny playing awesome is the cheat code to beating the Canes system (no idea if he will), and Carolina goaltending staying sharp (another issue for Carolina past rounds 2/3) is the only antidote to Vladar series theft scenario.

As spoiled in my round two preview chat thread, I’m leaning into road dogs game one, home teams game two, unless models/profit scores convince me otherwise. Those models have a slight preference for Carolina, profit scores leaning slightly Philly. Given the Flyers are 2-13 vs Carolina last 3 years, I’m hesitant picking them straight-up, but they are 10-5 on the puckline +1.5 goals in those games, so that’s going to be my game one pick. Over/under was a coin toss, I opted for under because it is +105. It’s risky because over 5.5 is a dominant round two bet, assuming history repeats, which it hasn’t all season, so why start now?

Minnesota vs Colorado

Series Pick: Colorado (-205), in 7 games (+400)

The Colorado Avalanche swept LA, who really didn’t deserve to make playoffs based on their season, except all the teams beneath them who missed were even more undeserving of a post-season slot. The reason Colorado and Dallas were battling so hard to win the division was avoiding Minnesota in round one, but now that we’re in round two, getting the easier R1 match-up could work against them. Avs broomed a shitty team and haven’t played in days, Wild slayed a top Cup contender, so the “battle-tested” meter swings hard in Minny’s favor. My conflict of interested was picking Colorado to win the Cup in my pre-playoffs bracket.

The top upset indicator in series modelling is road GF%, Colorado 75% and Minnesota 63%, but adjusting for opponent degree of difficulty (which my series modelling did not do), the playing field is more level. Avalanche won 10 of their last 15 head-to-head match-ups, but 6-2 on the road and 4-3 at home, so there is some upset potential in game one, especially with the aforementioned battle-tested meter. That’s insufficient to convince me of a series upset, so Avs are my pick at -205, but there’s more “value” on Minnesota +170 if you like betting at the series level. My correct score pick is Avs in 7 at +400.

Looking at the numbers for game one, models and profit scores are leaning heavily into the road dog, which affirms my macro strategy for game ones. Wild are +142 and that’s a nice number. The longer layoff might help Colorado later in the series, but that can also produce rust in game one, especially against an opponent fresh off defeating a much better team. Confidence testing wanted a green light, but I’m going to cap at a yellow caution, respecting Avs effectiveness against Minnesota in recent seasons. The only problem with that, Wild arguably have a much better team now than most of those games, it’s just confidence is limited by Avs being my Cup pick.

Anaheim vs Vegas

Series pick: Vegas (-190) in 6 games (+400)

The Mighty Ducks of Anaheim just slayed goliath, who was injured and leaking badly from his rear-end, but terminated none the less. Ducks have been a great story this season and we were early passengers on that bandwagon, but they struggled down final the stretch and lost my confidence. Now they face another behemoth, who also struggled 2^nd half, but reversed course after harnessing “new coach energy” right before playoffs and got Carter Hart back from injury. I was skeptical of that bump being meaningful given their cream-puff schedule, but dispatching a good Utah team has restored my confidence. Golden Knights are -190 to win the series and are my pick to advance.

The next question requiring answering is number of games, which is either 5 or 6. The best upset indicator is road GF% and Ducks were under 50% in Edmonton, while the Knights were 57% in Salt Lake City. The biggest red flag is Vegas being 2-5 in their last 7 trips to Anaheim, but 4 of those games were the 2^nd half of a back-to-back where Vegas went 1-3. Home side won 10 of the last 14 meetings between them, Knights have home ice advantage in the series, so I’ll take Vegas in 6 games at +400. If my analyst hat is removed and look at this through a hockey fandom lens, it would be way more fun if Ducks won. The quack attack would be back Jack!

We have already established that I’m leaning dogs in game one, home teams game two, and this one is no different. Of the first 3 series, game one prices are in the same range, which is very profitable for the road dog historically (with the obligatory “history not guaranteed repeating” warning). Downside, very negative profit scores on visitor moneyline for “these teams last 30 days”, me with these teams L30, and teams at venue. That’s why I’m manually reducing the confidence score even further. Nobody expected Anaheim to make playoffs, so the young roster is playing with house money, while Knights are Cup or bust and likely feeling more pressure, just not sure which side that benefits.

Montreal vs Buffalo

Series pick: Buffalo (-110) in 7 games (+450)

The Buffalo Sabres clinched first place in the Atlantic division, giving them home ice in the divisional title round, but that may not matter considering the just outscored the Bruins 13-3 in Boston, while Montreal was 11-9 in Tampa. As just mentioned in the Habs-Bolts chat, Dobes was incredible to close out this series, outduelling elimination game Vasileskiy. Buffalo just dispatched Swayman, but the roster in front of him was barely playoff quality. Lyon was good last series, but Alex Lyon BEING good and STAYING has been a past issue, Montreal with more offensive firepower than Boston. Lyon going from Boston to Montreal is a harder leap than Dobes from Tampa to Buffalo.

This series opened as a pick’em and I’m a little surprised to see that number, but possibly a bigger shock is the difficulty making a decision. At the end of the 2^nd period tied 1-1 and Habs had 4 shots, I didn’t think they’d win the game much less advance to the conference final, but winning the game on the back of Dobes is producing a mental stalemate. I was cheering for the Canadian team to beat Tampa, but Buffalo is almost a Canadian city, in spirit and personality. My grandmother was born in Buffalo and I’m on that bandwagon right now, creating inner-turmoil. The actual metrics I’m using to pick round two winners lean Buffalo, so I’ll take Sabres -110, though just noticed Fanduel has Canadiens favored -118. Best upset indicator is road GF%, Sabres dominated in Boston, so now I’m feeling better about my pick. Draft Kings doesn’t have a correct score line up yet, but I’m picking 7 games.

Okay, that Buffalo -110 pick is now final, but I just looked up the head-to-head stats, and Montreal is 7-1 in their last 8 trips to Buffalo, 10-5 in the last 15 all venues. Buffalo is a -125 favorite to win game one, which where I expected their series line to be. That’s almost enough to convince me into taking Montreal game one, then I ran the numbers and consulted models, all signs point strongly towards Habs. In retrospect, I should have done my game one pick before the series pick, because looking at the game one numbers would have nudged me over to Canadiens winning this series. But the series pick officially dropped on the chat, so I’m beholden to that decision.

Round one of the NHL playoffs has arrived, the best two weeks of the year to be a hockey fan, even if your team pathetically crapped out of the playoff race once again. This is my 7th playoffs since the “picking every game” experiment began, and my general experience is macro strategies that worked one playoff are never guaranteed repeat next year. Studying my previous round one previews/reports to build a strategy for upcoming playoffs rarely works. Each series is a unique organism; and what works each round is the sum of those parts. They can be radically different from year-to-year. This regular season was radically different than previous seasons. Decent chance that mess spills into playoffs.

THIS WAS POSTED BEFORE ALL THE GRAPHIC IMAGES WERE COMPLETED. WRITING WAS FINISHED AND GAMES START TOMORROW. MORE IS GETTING ADDED TO THIS IN THE COMING HOURS!

Looking at all my series picks from the last 3 first rounds. I’m 16-8 picking the winner, but 2-6 picking the lower seed to win. Pro tip, higher seed is 20-4 last 3 round ones, the betting favorite going 22-2. It was tempting to blanket bet every series favorite to win, however this parity season substantially diverged from historical profitability parameters, so expecting a few upsets is perfectly reasonable, if not prudent. Wildcard teams are 0-8 last two years in round one. One key observation from the last 24 series, I’m bad at picking the winner in the correct number of games, going 4-20, so built a model to perform that function, which I’m blindly following in my series picks.

Below is a look at my personal profit rankings by team in the last 3 first rounds. This is encouraging. Most of my worst teams missed playoffs, though I’m skeptical those profit numbers are transferable one season to the next. Each series is its own beast; like when Winnipeg played Vegas and lost Morrissey to injury, I went ALL IN on the Golden Knights. I think that series alone pulled me into profit for the entire round. Not sure I’ll be aggressively betting to Vegas to win this year. New coach bump, but they’ve had such an easy schedule last month, not exactly battle tested. Then again, that’s probably true of the entire Western conference, and nobody in the west is playing a hardened eastern team until the final.

The best news is that my two most significant “mind virus” teams (Detroit and Toronto) are both heading to the golf course and fantasy playoffs wrapped, so there is no reverse jinx temptation, aside from slightly Ottawa. Wings losing 8-1 to the Florida Panthers farm team is a symbolically perfect ending to this nightmare, ironically, the song Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald came up next on shuffle while writing this paragraph, another excellent metaphor for what just happened. The only thing easing my sorrow is Red Wings sweeping the season series with Toronto, and the magic monkey paw successfully cursed another Leafs campaign, but dragged my Wings into the abyss…again…but I’ll whip out that paw next Dec 31 too…

My success betting teams last 30 days is one of my most important pick selection signals in the regular season, but those regular season profit scores have weak correlation with who wins within a series historically. For individual games, nearly all my betting models are built with playoff specific programming and I’ll be trusting that often as possible, aside from leaning hard into road dogs hard round one in April. All the game one picks can be found in Substack chat, each series getting its own thread, Carolina-Ottawa open to free subscribers. If any Canadian team advances to round two, that thread will also be free.

The series predictor model constructed would have picked the correct series winner in 19 of the last 24 first round series, and in the correct number of games 13 times. This is built on some smaller samples with no functionality guarantee, but given my disappointing results picking series “correct score”, this was required. In the last 24 round one series, there was 1 sweep, 7 series went 7, 16 series went 5 or 6, so it does aim for a similar distribution here, except that favorites the series lines are already lower price on average than last season, also reflected in game one prices. Parity could lead to a spike in 7 gamers, so modelling on non-parity could prove a mistake. We’ll see soon enough.

There is not much over/under analysis here, at least at the macro level, there is discussion at the series level, because that’s what drives macro conditions. My over/under models are all trained for playoffs and will have substantial sway over my game-by-game decisions, at least for game one. Once these series get going, my picks because more vibe driven by goaltending play, and for sure there’s a few teams I’m not even sure who will be starting game one. In the last 21 game ones with a total at 5.5, overs are 14-7. Only 3 of the last 24 game ones had a total at 6.5 but we have five this year. Oddsmakers are pricing a scoring increase over 2025.

Below is a fun image, playoff team win % against other playoff teams last 2/3 of the regular season, which mentioned frequently below (playoff teams = POT). HOWEVER: that stat is not used by my model, because average moneyline against other playoff teams was the #1 most correlated statistic to series win %. How oddsmakers priced them against other playoff teams was considerably better than actual record against those teams. You can read more about the actual model in Substack Chat. One final fun stat to keep in mind: Last 3 first rounds, home teams facing elimination in games 5 or 6 are 17-5.

If you want picks on the individual games, everything drops first in Substack Chat for paid subscribers often right after the previous game ends, $6.99 gets you the all-access backstage pass. All non-stay-away picks will be shared for free on social media, dropping first on Instagram. I’m trying to build up my following on that platform, so that’s where you’ll get the best access to free plays; next on the Substack social network, and at puck drop on Twitter and Bluesky. If you click on the images for series match-ups, it will take you to the chat thread.

Minnesota vs Dallas

Our first confirmed series opened with Dallas -140, until Miro Heiskanen and Roope Hintz suffered injuries, then they moved to -125. Miro is the bigger concern because not having him would be a substantial blow and clouds the series outlook. Stars are being quiet about his status, so we really have no idea how serious this might be. My initial lean was Dallas because they won 7 of their last 10 home games against Minnesota and have a strong edge in the head-to-head data. Granted, most of those last 20 games didn’t feature Quinn Hughes, a game-changing talent. Wild loaded up at the deadline and have a very physical team that could cause Dallas problems in a 7-game series.

Completion of my series predictor model revealed Dallas barely winning in 7 games, when coupled with the Heiskanen injury, locked me into Wild +105 and 7 games at +550. As mentioned earlier, the betting favorite won 22 of the last 24 round one series, but feels like we’ll get an extra upset or two given 2025/26 parity pandemic. It’s also possible Heiskanen is fine and I’m overreacting to that news, but he’s questionable for game one, which is at least better than “out”. UPDATE: Since writing that previous sentence, it has been announced Miro is playing in game one, which hasn’t moved the Dallas series line. Regardless, my position was officially declared last week, deadline for mind changing expired.

Of those 20 aforementioned games, the over/under total was 5.5 for 17 of them, unders going 11-6. Both these teams can score, but both have excellent goaltenders and could clamp down the back-end for a low scoring series. These teams were excellent over picks when the total was 6.5 against other playoff teams, but when it was 5.5, Dallas was a good under bet, Minnesota over, but I’m expecting this to be 5.5 for most of the series. I’ll be leaning over 5.5 goals until proven that’s a bad decision, the concern being Wild averaging 6.8 goals per game (F+A) vs other POT last 2/3 of the season.

Utah vs Vegas

Vegas clinched the division and draws arguably a more difficult round one opponent than Edmonton, as firing their coach 2 weeks before playoffs helped bump them past the finish line. Problem is, I don’t know if “new coach bump” is transferable to playoffs, because we rarely see playoff teams fire their coach with a few games left. Didn’t work for the Islanders, who missed playoffs altogether, but if Vegas goes on a long run, we’ll probably see a few more playoff-bound teams fire their coach with a few games left next year. The bottom line is that Utah had a better expected series W% and came out as the projected winner by my newly constructed model, so I’m picking Mammoth.

Looking deeper into the numbers, the stat that pushed Utah ahead was road GF% last 2/3 of the schedule, and we discussed their excellent road record a few times down the stretch, while Knights struggled at home. Vegas on the other hand, went 2-9 at home against other playoff teams. Utah went 11-12 against other POT, Vegas went 8-17, contributing to Cassidy getting fired. That said, average moneyline against other playoff teams is a better predictor and Vegas was favored in 68% of those games (they fell behind in modelling based on the secondary inputs). Knights won 7 of their last 8 games, but 5 of those wins were against non-playoff teams, so that new coach bump might be artificially enhanced.

My biggest question mark is the quality of Carter Hart, who returned from injury two weeks ago and played well (mostly against weaker competition), because Karel Vejmelka was really streaky for my championship winning fantasy team and if he’s outplayed by Hart, my Mammoth pick loses appeal. How these two goalies handle themselves also has a big impact on my over/under picks, but right now I’m leaning over 5.5 and under 6.5 as a general strategy unless models disagree. If either goalie struggles in game one, I would be leaning over 6.5 if that’s the total in game two.

Montreal vs Tampa

Montreal is facing mighty Tampa and my E[W%] model has Lightning at 62%, so that’s a weaker 6-game series win. They’re -245 on the series line, and I’m looking at Montreal +200 with temptation because they’re on an 11-2 heater, but the modelling is calling for Lightning in 6. It failed criteria for promoting to 5 and demoting to 7. Tempting as the Habs line was (my personal preference if for the Canadian team to advance, but Habs are 2^nd from last in my Canadian team likeability ranking), I’m trusting my newly constructed series model and going Tampa. That doesn’t mean I’m picking them in any of the individual games, but I’m trusting the model

Looking at the last 15 games between these teams cooled that aforementioned temptation, with Tampa going 5-2 at home and 5-3 on the road, winning 67% of the games straight-up. The mismatch in goal is arguably the biggest edge, Habs goalies playing better the last month but still lacking playoff experience. These teams had nearly identical 64% winning percentages against other playoff teams last 2/3 of the season, same home road splits, similar GF-GA averages. There is some evidence these objects are closer than they appear, but I’m trusting the modelling for my series picks, with more freedom game-to-game. Tampa did have a better shot share against other POTs.

Over/under is foggy because Montreal had been among the best over teams most of the season, then started getting saves down the stretch and their unders gained momentum. No idea if they’ll continue getting those saves, Dobes posting a .934 SV% in his last 10 GP, Fowler .913, can that withstand the Lightning onslaught? I’ll need to see the lines and model opinions, because this is another “leaning over 5.5, under 6.5”. In the last 24 game ones, only 3 had a total at 6.5, and over 5.5 is a great bet in game one, maybe the best strategy is leaning over 5.5 and under 6.5 every game one, then just play each series as they unfold. You need shaky goalies for over 6.5 to be a good bet.

Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh

Welcome to the battle of Pennsylvania! This is fun, glad we got this match-up, Pittsburgh opening at -170, Philly +140. My first impression was -170 feeling too expensive for Pittsburgh, noting in the chat my pending refusal to pay that price. Then Penguins were fed into my series predictor model, and came out winning in 6 games. Looking at the last 15 games played between these teams, home side is 10-5, Pittsburgh 6-2 at home. Flyers won the last game in Pitt, but neither Malkin or Crosby dressed for that one, so let’s not weigh that too heavily in the decision.

The case for Philly is they ended as an excellent road team, and they’ll need at least 1 road win the prevail in this series. Pittsburgh went 5-11 at home against other playoff teams last 2/3 of the season, while Philly went 8-6 on the road vs PO. Yet in those samples, Penguins had a better even strength shot share, better power play, and better penalty kill. Flyers are getting better goaltending, with Vladar at a .908 SV% last 30 days, Skinner .879. There is evidence this might not be the -170 slam dunk oddsmakers think, but series favorites won 22 of the last 24, and this isn’t enough to flip me. Time will tell if my initial instinct or the modelling was correct.

Game-to-game I’ll probably lean more into road Flyers, while over/under I’m unsure. Pens averaged 6.8 goals per game vs PO teams, while Philly was down at 6.0. That number for Pens is 2^nd largest for a high-seed in the last 24 R1 series. I looked it up to see what happens when high scoring meets low scoring, but can confirm that low-seed high-scoring vs high-seed low-scoring were all low scoring series. Whether that 5 minutes of research proves useful will be determined in time. If the total is 5.5, I’m taking the over, but 6.5 probably under.

Ottawa vs Carolina

If it couldn’t be Detroit in the final wildcard, Ottawa was my first choice, as they’re tied with Winnipeg for my 2^nd favorite team, but being in the Wings division presents a conflict of interest. Detroit out, Ottawa is now my favorite team in the playoffs, injecting some bias into my opinion. That’s why this series has been chosen as the thread open to free subscribers. The fact Carolina is only -165 against the last wildcard is a testament to Ottawa’s numbers, which earned a high score from my E[W%] model, but so did Canes. The average series line for 1 vs 8 is -270, only 1 of the last 6 was less favored and that was Dallas against Vegas.

Carolina is my series pick because my series prediction model says they’re winning 59% of the games, not because I’m purchasing sadness insurance or attempting a reverse jinx. My level of emotional investment is below that level. This fell in the 6-games zone, and also met the criteria for promoting to 5 games. By the way, if Ottawa had faced Buffalo, I was picking the upset. Canes present a problem for Ottawa, who produced great numbers with incredible shot suppression, just doesn’t feel like you squeeze Carolina into that vice, and Canes won 8 of their last 12 meetings, Sens 1-5 in their last 6 trips to Raleigh.

Not sure what to do with over/under here, as the Canes were a strong over team down the stretch, both sides don’t give up many shots against, but have struggled with goal prevention at various points in the schedule. My game one pick was under 6.5, just because I would like to see a game get played before leaning into overs, though now that I’m reflecting, these are both teams who give up low shots, but they tend to be higher danger when allowed. That doesn’t mean they’ll be trading high dangers chances back-and-forth, should be a fascinating series just from the rock-paper-scissors of it all.

Boston vs Buffalo

Of all 16 playoff teams, Boston has the 4^th worst win % against other playoff teams, they qualified by dominating on home ice, but will need road wins to prevail here. My ass is still firmly planted on the Sabres bandwagon, but my ticket didn’t necessarily include playoffs given how long it’s been since their last appearance. Several players on this team are playing their very first playoff game, which demands some skepticism the last couple months is transferable to post-season. Buffalo went 17-8 against playoff teams in the last 2/3 of the season (Bruins went 11-14), the series predictor model likes them winning in 6 games, so that’s going to be my pick.

Bruins won 5 of their last 8 trips to Buffalo, and Sabres won 3 of their last 7 trips to Boston, but a half that data Boston was a much better team, Sabres much worse. The historical data doesn’t necessarily reflect current states of the franchises, and I’ve discussed multiple times how Buffalo delivering so many winners for us in the 2^nd half of the schedule ostensibly turned me into a closet-Sabres fan. That said, at no point in that run did the thought cross my brain this team was surviving deep into playoffs, and was hoping they’d face Montreal or Ottawa just so I could pick the upset. Bruins however, are another team I was planning to bet losing round one, offsetting my Sabres doubt.

Looking at their over/under data, there is no firm strategy but leaning over 5.5 and under 6.5 early, and once we get deeper into this, a clearer pattern should be emerging. This also correlates to a potential strength for Boston, we’ve seen Jeremy Swayman steal a playoff series before, we’ve never seen Ukko-Pekka Lukkonnen in the playoffs. The two goalies finished the regular season with comparable save percentages, but looking at the last few years, Swayman is substantially better. Bruins also have substantially more team toughness, which can potentially swing a playoff series, but Buffalo does have grinders and a big defense, possibly nullifying that Boston edge.

Los Angeles vs Colorado

The LA Kings drew the short end of the stick Thursday night and will face a mighty Avalanche team in round one. My pick was made in the chat shortly after the series line dropped, and I’m once again tailing the series predictor model which called for a 5-game Avs win. Worth noting however, the Kings actually had a higher E[W%] score than I would have given based on the last two months, but that wasn’t enough to win support from the model. My brain is also anticipating an easy win, but there were some red flags that I’m choosing to ignore, Kings ending the schedule strong, but mostly against bad teams, the heater somewhat misleading.

The biggest concern is Avs struggling at home second half, going 4-7 in Denver against other playoff teams. Kings lost 4-straight games in Denver by an 18-5 combined score. I’m hoping LA struggling in Colorado nullifies Avs recent home downturn. Looking at their records against other playoff teams helps my Avs case because Kings went 5-11 at home, 4-8 on the road, and had a bad penalty kill. One of the reasons for the Avs downturn was goalies struggling at times (but played well more recently) and bad shooting percentage on the power play, so hopefully bad Kings PK helps pump some life into that advantage.

Kings only won 30% of their games against other playoff teams, which is the worst of all 16 playoff teams, but they did have a 50% even strength shot share in those games, just bad goaltending and low shooting percentage prevented them from winning more. I’m not even sure who the game one starter will be, Anton Forsberg substantially outplaying Darcy Kuemper and getting a majority of the starts last couple weeks. Colorado had a 56% 5v5 shot share against other playoff teams, and averaged a -167 moneyline, the most important variable for E[W%]. I took over 5.5 goals game one, but goalie play in that match will dictate choices moving forward.

Anaheim vs Edmonton

The malaise of the Oilers season start to finish failed building the trust I had in this team 365 days ago. Even then my series pick was Kings in 7, but that was “entirely because of the Oilers injury situation”, so they were banged up, and my preview noted I’d be jumping on the bandwagon quick if they steamroll out of the gate. I’m picking Oilers to win this series in 6 games because that’s what the model recommended. Actually, it met the criteria for promoting from 6 to 5, I’m just not 5 games confident in Edmonton. Once again, I’m a little nervous about the injury situation, wondering if Leon is fully recovered, but McDavid went nuclear to close the schedule, so that helps alleviate doubt.

Anaheim was a nice story this year and for a big chunk of that I identified as a Ducks truther, but they finished the season ice cold I’m feeling no warmth/confidence right now. That said, it would not surprise me at all if Anaheim won the series. I’m just trusting the modelling at this moment. Last 2/3 of the schedule, Ducks had the better winning percentage against other playoff teams, the reason they fell behind in E[W%] is because Oilers were favored in 56% of those games, Ducks just 13% and average ML vs other POT is the biggest variable in the model. We’ll see though, Ducks won game one and all my Edmonton confidence evaporates.

Over/under is also a question mark, because Ingram provided Oilers with quasi-reliable goaltending down the stretch, reducing over profitability. While Ducks were the opposite and their overs boomed. Over 6.5 is my game one pick -110, but need to see goals and/or shaky goaltending to roll that back game two. We saw incredible stretches of play from Dostal this season, but also struggled at times too, including recently (.837 SV% last 10 GP), so I’m unsure what to expect. They need to win the battle in net if they have any chance of winning this series, I just disembarked their bandwagon while losing 6 of their last 8 games.

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

The other reason for speeding through the card is 7 of 9 games feature back-to-backs, a radioactive subset where I’m ostensibly throwing darts blindfolded, automatically triggering several red lights. No sense carefully aiming when the room is pitch-black. Not much else to write, except another reminder that free playoff plays will be dropping first on Instagram. Quite often, I’ll be posting my pick for the next game in Substack Chat shortly after the previous game ends, exceptions for late games and long overtimes. They will drop on Instagram a few hours before puck-drop, then other platforms at game-time.

NJ @ BOS

Boston won 7 of their last 10 home games, New Jersey won 6 of their last 10 road games, so this is not the fair line mismatch it would have been 3 weeks ago. My models like New Jersey and that’s backed up by profit scores, so I’ll take Devils ML +114. Confidence modelling recommended a 76% score, but I’m pulling that back to yellow, over 5.5 also passing testing and yellow lights. Best news is neither team plays Monday.

WSH @ CBJ

Washington won 7 of their last 10 games, Columbus lost 8 of their last 10 games, neither plays Monday, models-fair line-profit scores-vibes all leaning Caps ML, so that’s my pick. Confidence modelling even gave this a 74% score, but I pulled that back to 55%, barely green. Over 6.5 failed miserably and gets a red light.

CAR @ NYI

Carolina has begun mass resting players, but that didn’t stop them from winning 5 of their last 6 games, while Islanders lost 6 of their last 7 games, leaving me unexcited about either side at first glance. I settled on Islanders moneyline hoping that new coach bump activates, but giving this a red light. Over 6.5 had very positive signals and narrowly failed confidence testing.

MTL @ PHI

Montreal has clinched a playoff spot but hasn’t started mass resting, which might change now that Noah Dobson sustained an injury and will be re-evaluated in 2 weeks. That might increase organization caution with Carrier also injured. The Flyers will be back-to-backing, so this is auto-red light for volatility. I’m just taking the home dog +1.5 as a default but really want no part of this mess. Over/under also had strongly conflicting signals and failed confidence testing by a wide margin.

ANA @ MIN

Anaheim lost 7 of their last 8 games, Minnesota is hotter but at risk of resting their top guns. Ducks are likely playoff bound, but given how much they’ve struggled lately (losing to the league’s worst team yesterday), they have more incentive to spark a fire before game one. Models, fair line, and profit scores all leaning road dog, so I’m tailing on the moneyline, but giving this a red light because Anaheim is ice cold. Over/under had mixed signals and failed confidence testing by a wide margin whether over or under was typed into the cell.

COL @ CGY

Colorado won 12 of their last 13 road games, but Calgary won 7 of their last 10 home games playing for pride. The biggest issue here is Avalanche playing Edmonton tonight, already missing a few players with injury. I assume they would rather dress the “A team” against Edmonton then let the B team mop up the Flames. My choice was between Flames moneyline or +1.5 goals, ultimately settled on red light ML rather than yellow light PL. Over/under has mixed signals and failed confidence testing.

WPG @ UTA

Utah is a mass resting risk, Jets play tonight, so this is max volatility auto-red light. I’ll play safest with dog +1.5 goals, but lacking confidence. Over 5.5 goals on the other hand passed confidence testing and gets a yellow light.

PIT @ STL

Based on Pens roster management since clinching, the Blues might be playing Wilkes-Barre tomorrow, but STL is playing tonight, so this is radioactive red light stay away. I’m just putting a minimum bet on Blues moneyline but want no part of this mess. Over 6.5 had strong signals, but gets a red light too because Blues have good goalies and the baby Pens may struggle scoring.

LA @ VAN

The LA Kings won 4-straight and play tonight, while Vancouver has suddenly won consecutive games for the first time since Dec 20. They are not going quietly into the night or vanishing without a fight, but that doesn’t mean 2 games earned my trust either. I’m taking Canucks moneyline because I like +154 better than -185, but giving this a red light for BTB toxicity. Over 5.5 passed confidence testing and gets a yellow light.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

I’ve mentioned dogs surging final week of season, but that varies year-to-year. Last 3 seasons combined, it’s actually bad for big road dogs >= +150, good for mild dogs +1.5 goals. For sure if you’re betting dogs, +1.5 is better than moneyline, though I ended up with a mix and did take a few favorites. The best bet final week is overs, 77-57 in the sample, turning a big profit at both 5.5 and 6.5. This inspired me leaning hard into overs tomorrow, but once again, history is never guaranteed to repeat and this has been a bizarre season deviating substantially from past parameters values. Come join us in the chat if you want a sneak peak at the playoff preview!

DET @ TB

When this game was copied into my queue, my music player selected Glass Tiger “don’t forget me when I’m gone” next on shuffle, appropriate considering Wings will soon be gone from my daily betting analysis. My biggest issue with Tampa is resting risk and the -192 price tag, so I’m punting on the road dog +1.5 goals, flashing a double red light to stay away (over/under had conflicting signals). I’m planning to forget Detroit when they’re gone, you should too…

NYR @ FLA

Panthers won 7 of their last 10 home games, Rangers lost 7 of their last 10 road games, that’s why I’m picking Florida moneyline. I very nearly went with betting models V-1.5 just as a lottery ticket, but the fair line and profit scores made the final call. This still deserves a red light given that Rangers were nearly my pick and I don’t trust Florida. Over 5.5 passed confidence testing and gets a yellow.

CAR @ PHI

Carolina has already started mass resting players, but won both weekend games with a full press box. My indicators like the Canes here, but I have no idea who will be playing. You may prefer waiting until puck drop, but I’m contractually obligated to make a decision now, so will take Philly ML +114. It’s getting a red light, but confidence testing recommended yellow. I had slightly more confidence in over 6.5 goals, but it failed testing.

DAL @ TOR

Dallas Stars are already missing Heiskanen and Hintz, at risk of resting even more tomorrow, especially after Robertson was injured in a meaningless game last year. I’m also not green or yellow light confident in the Leafs, so I’ll reluctantly take the home dog +1.5 goals, red light because they suck. Over 5.5 did pass confidence testing and gets a yellow light.

MIN @ STL

Minnesota started resting on the weekend, and we could see several healthy scratches in this one. My pick was nearly going to be St Louis +1.5, but the resting starting is emboldening me to go Blues moneyline, which my confidence modelling scored green light. I’m leaving it unchanged. Under 6.5 goals failed by a wide margin, and I’m not changing that score either.

SJ @ NSH

Both teams are 5-5 in their last 10 games, Nashville winning 6 of 10 at home, San Jose losing 6 of 10 on the road, so fair line and profit scores are leaning heavily on the home side, models like the visiting side. I opted for Sharks moneyline because +130 was more visually appealing than -155. That’s not a satisfactory reason to encourage tailing, so we’ll give this a red light. Over 6.5 failed confidence testing by a wide margin.

BUF @ CHI

If or when Buffalo decides to rest players for playoffs is currently unknown, and I’m naturally reluctant green lighting anything with final week volatility. That said, this checks all the boxes and Sabres have been great to us this season, so I’m taking a leap of faith they can dispatch the Blackhawks. Over/under did not check necessary boxes for approval, over 6.5 is a losing bet with these teams last 30 days.

COL @ EDM

Hard to say who if anyone will be resting in this one, but both teams being playoff bound may cancel each other out. Models, profit scores, and fair line are leaning visiting side, so I’m cautiously taking Avs ML. Colorado won 9 of their last 10 road games. Signs pointed strongly under 6.5 goals, but models (and historical results) have me going over.

LA @ SEA

New coach bumps come in all shapes and sizes, including the “delayed bump” where it takes a few weeks for the new coach to reverse course, but that’s what appears to be unfolding. Or they’ve just had a ridiculously easy schedule and are finally starting to defeat inferior teams more reliably, but at least Kraken lost 7 of their last 10 home games. Kings moneyline is my pick, supported by models but not profit scores, failing confidence testing, as did over 5.5 goals.

WPG @ VEG

Unclear if Vegas intends to rest anyone ahead of playoffs, but haven’t started yet. Torts may want his bump fully bloomed by game one, I’m just not comfortable with the -185 price. Models had a slight Vegas preference but weak, so I nearly took Jets moneyline but settled +1.5 goals instead because dogs are better puckline last week. Despite my desire to take mostly overs, evidence on under 6.5 was too strong to deny, but still failed confidence testing.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

This is not going out as a free preview to free subscribers because there are no approved wagers. That would perhaps justify sharing the full card, but generosity and outstanding performance on those shared picks is not converting free subscribers to paid. But also, posts sharing all picks for free is the #1 entry point for new paid subscribers, so this requires finding the perfect equilibrium. Calibrating that optimal balance can wait until next season, because playoffs all picks and write-ups will be in the chat. All approved/caution bets will be shared shortly before puck-drop on social media, first on Instagram. The catch is, playoffs can be really difficult, and no guarantee what worked last 3 seasons will work again in 2026, my models calibrated on historical data.

PIT @ WSH

These teams are playing a weekend back-to-back, so copy-pasting my analysis from yesterday was considered, but I’m contractually obligated to share fresh thoughts. This pick was made, analysis written, prior to puck dropping Saturday, the biggest question is whether or not Logan Thompson will start tomorrow too, likely dependent on playoff chances end of night. Pens are 5-5 in their last 10 road games, Caps 7-3 last 10 at home, bad news being my terrible performance VML and HML with these teams last 30 days. Also, Pens are resting Crosby, Malkin, Karlsson, Rust Saturday and no idea if they’re playing tomorrow, so I’ll put a low confidence bet on Caps ML. All this roster volatility makes over/under a stay away, but mass resting again would help the under, in theory.

BOS @ CBJ

Underdogs +1.5 goals have been my Sunday salvation last 2 weeks, and that’s the top position of my best models in this game where I’m cheering for both sides to lose. My brain only required a few seconds of selection deliberation, taking V+1.5, which arguably deserves a green light, but residual caution from previous Sunday struggles lowers overall card confidence. Under 6.5 had strong signals but no model support and gets a red light.

MTL @ NYI

Islanders won 6 of their last 10 home games and undefeated under their new coach (written before they lost to Ottawa today, but I’m leaving it in because it was supposed to help justify my pick). Montreal won 7 of their last 10 road games and already clinched a playoff spot. Models, profit scores, and the fair line estimator are all leaning visiting side, but I’m playing the new coach bump. Lack of supporting evidence forced the red light and I’m cheering for Isles to miss playoffs, biasing my opinion. Under 6.5 had stronger supporting evidence (and its Sunday) so that earned a yellow light.

OTT @ NJ

Ottawa won 6 of their last 10 road games, New Jersey won 5 of their last 10 home games, fair line and profit scores not leaning towards either side. Models like the Devils, giving us a mixed signal situation, so I’ll default to the home dog +1.5 goals, which is a good bet Sundays. There was enough evidence to support a yellow light for under 6.5 goals, but ultimately failed confidence testing, forcing red.

VAN @ ANA

Vancouver sucks, but Ducks lost 6 of their last 7 games, so I’m not paying -305 for their moneyline or taking them -1.5 goals. I’ll put a minimum bet on Canucks +1.5 goals, but flashing a double red light because dislike both sides, under 6.5 massively failing confidence testing.

UTA @ CGY

The biggest risk taking Utah tomorrow is not knowing who if anyone they might decide to rest. Even at full strength, fair line is showing a tax on Utah moneyline, and I don’t pay taxes on favorites, so declining to tail my best betting models. I’ll take the dog +1.5, a good Sunday bet, and insulation against mass resting. Over 5.5 had very positive signals and passed confidence testing, I’m just not sure that’s a good thing. Conflicting signals produces a better return.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

Just a fair warning, the ML-PL Chat GPT ranking thread is getting slow and buggy, but there’s no point creating a new one now. Dying days of the season as playoff seedings get locked, star players start resting and big dogs get frisky. You don’t want to pay -300 for Colorado moneyline then find out an hour before puck drop MacKinnon, Makar, Necas are all taking maintenance days. One game last April Florida sat half their starting line-up against Detroit. It’s a volatile environment, so my general confidence is low. GPT wanted to green light several picks on the card, when I green lit none, but at least those promotions were backed up by my confidence modelling. My emotionally flawed human brain reigned in the values.

I manually downgraded a bunch of GPT values, but it basically just tailed my confidence modelling (which I also heavily downgraded). You may as well take a look at what GPT provided.

TB @ BOS

Tampa lost 3-straight and 6 of their last 10 road games, Boston 5-5 in their last 10, but won 8 of 10 at home. This is also confirmed to be Saturday, when Bruins are great on their own sheet, especially early starts. You may recall Thursday when I picked Tampa and encouraged you to bet Montreal, because I wanted something to feel good about if Vasilevskiy delivered a win to my fantasy opponent. Habs won. That said, my desire to see Boston miss playoffs means I’m going to be disappointed no matter who wins. That means I can just trust the models, fair line, and profit scores on Bruins moneyline, which unbiased confidence modelling gave a yellow light. Under 6.5 received a 29% score.

OTT @ NYI

Ottawa won 6 of their last 10 road games, Islanders won 6 of their last 10 home games, so we have a fair line pick’em with Ottawa a -125 favorite. Betting models liked Isles, backed up by profit scores, and they just hired a new coach. Not all new hires reverse slides, but if anyone can to do it, few better than Deboer. It would have been funny if Detroit immediately fired their coach and hired Patrick Roy, I just doubt Patty would work well with the Wings front office. I’ll take HML because it has supporting evidence on top of the possible bump. Unbiased confidence modelling even gave it a yellow light, which was not the case with over 5.5, conflicting signals, probably better to stay away except my rate of return on stay aways is higher than “strong signals”, so not sure what to write next.

WSH @ PIT

Pittsburgh won 5 of their last 6 games and clinched a playoff spot while Logan Thompson is battling for a championship in the subscriber league, giving me a conflict of interest. Making a decision here was very difficult, I also don’t want Capitals making playoffs. Temptation to reverse jinx both sides broke my brain. Models like Pittsburgh, profit scores prefer Washington, I settled on Caps ML because +110 is a higher payout than -130. This gets a double red light, over 6.5 had strong numbers but lacked model support.

EDM @ LA

The previously terrible LA Kings won 4 of their last 5 games, earning a brake pump on my big short position. Edmonton won 6 of 10, but Connor Ingram is nursing a minor injury, increasing Jarry risk. Models love the Kings here, but that’s not backed up by fair line or profit scores. Oilers also missing Draisaitl and Hyman, so I’m taking Kings moneyline, which failed confidence testing miserably, as did over 6.5 goals. I’m just physically unable to pick under 6.5 if Jarry is possible.

STL @ CHI

Seinfeld’s Law is now 1-2 on Chicago decisions, thankfully last game my instinct proved right, Jerry’s advice ignored. Prudence still demands some caution trusting my Hawks picks, but signals strongly singing Blues praise in tomorrow’s match. The only negative is my own bad VML performance, most of that from picking Chicago opponents. I was nearly tempted to take Blues -1.5 goals +180, fair line at +122, but I’m also getting plenty value on the moneyline. Confidence modelling wanted to green light, but Chicago caution continues. Over 5.5 has some positive signals, but failed confidence testing.

NYR @ DAL

The New York Rangers covered +1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 games, Dallas covered -1.5 goals in 2 of their last 10. Models like Rangers +1.5, backed up by line value and profit scores. Dallas is also locked into their playoff seeding and could start resting stars, so I’m not thrilled about the -205 price tag. V+1.5 is my pick, which confidence modelling wanted to green light, but I’m not even yellow light confident in a Rangers cover. Over 5.5 had some positive signals but narrowly failed confidence testing.

NJ @ DET

My green lighting Philly in Detroit yesterday was NOT a reverse jinx attempt. Flyers moneyline had undeniably excellent underlying numbers and that decision was made by unbiased inputs. At this point I’m excited for the season to end on no more Wings games on my plate, but contractually obligated to play out the schedule. As the Beach Boys just started singing in my music player “this is the worst trip I’ve ever been on”. I feel so broke up, I wanna go home. This game, betting models like Detroit, but profit scores and fair line strongly favor Devils. I’m taking Devils moneyline, which confidence modelling wanted to enthusiastically green light, but I’m flashing red. Pretty sure the ghost of Brian Wilson wants you to stay away, or you might find yourself lying in bed, just like Brian Wilson did. Over 5.5 was a different matter, VERY strong signals, with one of the highest confidence scores I’ve seen yet from the model.

MIN @ NSH

Minnesota won 5 of their last 10 road games, Nashville 6 of 10 home games, but my betting models have a strong preference for Wild moneyline. I’m just not willing to a pay a road favorite tax that’s not backed up by profit scores, so I’m playing the best value on the board, Preds +1.5, which confidence testing wanted to green light, but I flashed yellow instead, lacking model support. Wild are also locked into their playoff position and could start resting stars in these last few games, which is why dogs tend to do well last week of the season. Under 6.5 had some strong signals but failed confidence testing.

CAR @ UTA

Carolina won 6 of their last 10 road games, Utah lost 6 of their last 10 home games, models like Carolina, profit scores and fair line too. Canes moneyline was an easy pick, signal strength sufficient for a green light, but I’m assigning yellow instead. There is a potential conflict of interest with Vejmelka on my fantasy team, but he’s likely to be on my bench for this one. Over 6.5 goals also gets a yellow light with very strong supporting evidence. Both teams went over 6.5 goals in 7 of their last 9 games (one of the reasons Vejmelka likely benched).

CBJ @ MTL

Columbus lost 8 of their last 10 games (but covered +1.5 goals in 7 of 10), Montreal won 9 of their last 10 games, models prefer Canadiens, backed up by the fair line but conflicting profit scores. The biggest concern is that Montreal has clinched, Columbus battling for a playoff spot, so the desperation meter strongly favors BJs. The best value on the board is actually Blue Jackets +1.5 goals, so that will be my pick with a red light. Under 6.5 goals had much stronger signals, earning a yellow light.

CGY @ SEA

Calgary lost 8 of their last 10 road games, Seattle lost 7 of their last 10 home games, so first glance revealed no preference for either side, second glance adding no additional clarity. This is a genuine, “no idea what to do” game, so I’ll default to the underdog +1.5 goals. Confidence modeling wanted a green light, but uncertainty level leans red. Over 5.5 goals had strong signals and passed confidence testing.

FLA @ TOR

Florida lost 9 of their last 10 road games, Toronto lost 8 of their last 10 home games, so we have a classic “can’t bet both teams to lose” situation. Right now, my music player is blasting “train comes I don’t know its destination, it’s a one-way ticket to a madman situation”. I can’t conjure a better word combination to express my feelings about this game and you should heed that warning. The Sugababes are all still alive, so no ghosts hijacked the shuffle (Overload is on my favorites playlist). Models like Leafs, backed up by fair line and profit scores, so I’ll take Toronto ML with a big flashing red light. Confidence modelling actually wanted to score HML 74%, but I’d rather avoid a madman situation. Over/under is a hard pass, either side produced a massive failure on the confidence score.

PHI @ WPG

Flyers had excellent supporting evidence to beat the nosediving Red Wings, but lost despite earning a greenlight from unbiased modelling. Those residual signals are still showing strength against Winnipeg, except my own profit scores betting VML with these teams last 30 days suffered a big loss. I’m doubling down but not with a green light. This should probably be red light considering I really want Jets to make playoffs and have bias here. Under 5.5 had positive signals but failed confidence testing.

VEG @ COL

Some of you may recall a subscriber prophecy a few months ago proclaiming “Minnesota will never lose again” then a butterfly flapped its wings, cascading into a Wild cold streak. That same prophet tried more Nostradamus cosplay with a similar proclamation about Vegas after hiring Torts, this one more specific than sarcastic, saying “Colorado too”. Alas, the lowly Seattle Kraken provided a healthy dose of humility to our friend before Avs could be vanquished. My problem with this game is Scott Wedgewood likely starting, allowing 2 goals or less in 5-straight, and on my opponent’s roster in the fantasy championship, plus Avs lost 6 of their last 10 home games. I’ve been sounding the alarm about high-altitude teams struggling at home in the second half of this compressed schedule, so this game puts me in a tough spot. My models like Avs moneyline, my heart wants to reverse jinx Wedgwood, but ultimately preferred +110 so took Vegas ML. Confidence modelling wanted to give this an 81%, but I pulled that back to 44% because it took me way too long making a decision. Under 6.5 also scored very well on the confidence meter and received a yellow light.

VAN @ SJ

Sharks spent most of the season in the upper-echelon of my profit rankings, but King Midas lost his magic touch last few weeks. My profit scores are red across the board, and it’s not from betting Canucks to lose. This is a red light stay away, my choice is Sharks -1.5 because this is a throw away pick, may as well take +114 instead of -205. This is also my best models largest position. Over 6.5 had some strong signals but failed confidence testing.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

We had another Super-Tuesday yesterday; all those picks generously shared with free subscribers. I took the time to look up all the picks shared with free subscribers since the Olympics, 134 games in total, ML-PL picks going 85-49 (63%) (scroll through the blog history and free chat thread if you doubt the accuracy of that number) which also includes red light stay aways, not just cream of the crop, producing a big profit. Over/under is 68-66 for a loss in those games, but most of those were red lights anyway. If you’ve been playing along for free the last 6 weeks, you should have lots of surplus money to invest in a subscription. However, All my new paid subscribers in 2026 were people who recently started subscribing.

The objective sharing so many picks for free was boosting your disposable income and encouraging investment, but fertilizing the soil isn’t producing crops. Don’t worry, I’m not setting up a Scrooge McDuck heel-turn, and anyone wanting to continue cashing free plays has good news. I’m trying to build my Instagram audience, and will be sharing all approved wagers prior to puck drop on that platform. There will be a higher percentage of picks behind the paywall next season, but sharing nightly best bets is a tradition that will continue, not in playoffs because there won’t be any pick ranking. New ways are being invented to keep free subscribers engaged and enjoying content, because it makes me sad when any of you unsubscribe.

Speaking of that, I’m at 297 subscribers and slowly inching towards 300.

TOR @ NYI

Toronto lost 7 of their last 10 road games, Isles won 6 of 10 at home and just hired a new coach (one of the best in the league), putting them on bump alert. Toronto is back-to-backing, adding toxicity to this pick. Fair line and models supported the home side, but profit scores were bad, so HML failed confidence testing miserably, but will still be my pick. Under 6.5 had mixed signals, but faired better in confidence testing, just not enough for a yellow light.

CBJ @ BUF

Buffalo is playing tonight and tomorrow; tired home teams against rested visitors had been one of the hottest bets of 2026, but that’s cooling off nearing season’s end, visitors going 8-5 in the last 13 opportunities. My models love Columbus but are trained on historical data and sustaining a massive loss VbtbA in 2026. The best value on the board is Columbus +1.5 goals, so that’s my pick, but flashing the red light. Tail at your own risk. Under 6.5 goals had enough positive signals to earn a yellow light.

TB @ MTL

Montreal won 9 of their last 10 games, while Tampa is 5-5, so Habs should be a -186 favorite, not a +100 dog. Models love Montreal, as does fair line and profit scores, checking all the boxes for HML green light. Typing HML into my pick cell returned 47% yellow light confidence, VML 36%. However, I’m taking Tampa moneyline because I’m facing Vasilevskiy in the fantasy championship and desire something to feel good about if he wins. That’s a bad reason for you to tail. Montreal moneyline is a MUCH better bet. I came close to assigning a yellow light on under 6.5 due to strong signal strength, but failed confidence testing.

FLA @ OTT

Florida lost 8 of their last 10 road games, Ottawa won 7 of 10 home games, so Sens fair line is -300. Fair line on -1.5 goals is -186 (Panthers covered +1.5 in 3 of 10, Ottawa -1.5 in 6 of 10) and taking the Sens puckline was very tempting. Problem is, Panthers nearly beat Montreal yesterday, Habs > Sens, requiring a Nick Suzuki game tying goal in the final minute (you may recall me recently recommending betting Nick Suzuki game tying/winning goals in the final minute of late season games as a prop bet (if that is even offered by any books)). That scared me away from H-1.5, but not from Sens ML, which is supported by betting models, fair line, and profit scores, receiving 80% from confidence modelling (I pulled that back to 60%). Over 5.5 had positive signals but narrowly failed confidence testing.

PHI @ DET

We’re going on 2 weeks since last I looked at the eastern wildcard standings, so genuinely have no idea if Detroit has any chance, but assume they are ostensibly eliminated. Flyers won 9 of their last 10 road games, Detroit lost 8 of their last 10 home games, so Philly fair line is -567 and I’m getting +114. Models love Flyers, so do the profit scores, almost enough to justify green lighting V-1.5, but I’m happy getting plus money on the moneyline. Unbiased confidence modelling gave this an 88%, so I’ll green light, but pull that back to 65%. Over 5.5 had positive signals received a yellow light confidence score, but barely.

PIT @ NJ

Pittsburgh won 4 of their last 10 road games, New Jersey won 6 of 10 home games and earned support from my betting models. There was insufficient evidence supporting picking Pens, and I’m not -1.5 goals confident in Devils, so will take NJ ML. That failed confidence testing due to poor profit scores, but over 6.5 had very strong supporting evidence, earning a yellow light.

WPG @ STL

Jets won 6 of their last 8 games, Blues lost 3 of their last 5, but slightly favored by the fair line estimator. I’m nervous going against either side, but models like the Blues, and I’m performing better HML than VML with these teams last 30 days, so will take STL ML. Confidence modelling gave this 54% yellow, but I pulled that back to 44% red due to my own nervous energy making the selection. Under 5.5 had positive signals but failed confidence testing.

CAR @ CHI

My terrible handling of Chicago post-Olympics inspired invoking “Seinfeld’s Law” if every instinct you have is wrong, the opposite must be right, hitting a longshot pick on Hawks -1.5 goals at +314. That law was enforced again next game, and inspired some of you betting that too. Sharks -1.5 lost, but they did win, just failed to score on the empty net. Still, you should have been warned that historical usage of Seinfeld’s Law did not reverse my terrible handling of radioactive teams previous seasons, and itself is a bad tailing justification. In tomorrow’s case, Hawks lost 8 of their last 10 home games, Canes won 6 of 10 road games, models love Carolina and that’s backed up by profit scores and the fair line estimator. Confidence modelling scored Carolina ML at a 55% green light, but Hawks radioactivity demanded red. Jerry would say take Chicago ML +190. You can listen to me, listen to Jerry, or avoid this game altogether. Over 5.5 had very strong signals and received a yellow light.

MIN @ DAL

Minnesota won 6 of their last 10 road games, Dallas won 6 of 10 home games, so fair line is a pick’em. Models are divided with a slight preference for Minnesota, while profit scores and fair line also leaning visiting side. This is a likely round one, game one preview, and I’m torn between Wild ML or +1.5 goals. Confidence modelling assigned a 76% score for V+1.5 and 58% for VML, but I’m not green light confident in Wild winning straight-up. The tie-breaker was +105 being more appealing than -238, but a yellow light. Over 5.5 had positive signals but failed confidence testing.

CGY @ COL

Calgary won 6 of their last 10 games, but only 2 of their last 10 road games. Colorado won 7 of their last 10 games, but only 3 of their last 10 home games (one of those a 9-2 victory over these same Flames). The reason I’m not picking Avs here is because -340 ML is too far away from the -122 fair price. My models like Calgary moneyline, but I’m lacking tailing boldness given that 9-2 score previous match. I’ll take CGY +1.5 and give this a red light. I’d rather just stay away. Over/under had decidedly divergent signals and a stay away.

NSH @ UTA

Nashville won 6 of their last 10 road games, Utah lost 7 of their last 10 home games, fair line estimator thinks Preds should be a -186 favorite, not a +142 dog. My models are divided, leaning slightly Utah, but Mammoth ML massively failed confidence testing and disqualified from consideration. I’m taking Nash ML, but not green light confident, going yellow instead, while over/under had conflicting signals and a stay away.

SJ @ ANA

Sharks won 5 of their last 6 games, but 4 of those were at home and they lost 7 of their last 10 road games. They’re also playing tonight, adding uncertainty, but Ducks lost 7 of their last 10 games, leaking goals badly lately, and don’t deserve to be a -180 favorite. My models are all in on Ducks, but very BTB biased, while fair line and profit scores fully reject Anaheim as an option. I’m performing better V+1.5 than VML with these teams last 30 days, so that’s my pick, but low confidence red light. Over 6.5 failed confidence testing by a wide margin.

VEG @ SEA

Vegas and their new coach won 4-straight, Seattle lost 10 of their last 11 games, my models love Knights and that’s backed up by profit scores. There is even a case for Vegas -1.5 goals, but they just failed covering against the worst team in the league, so it’s too soon for me jumping back aboard. I’ll take VML, but confidence is reduced by fair line estimator, which is mostly using previous coach data to derive that estimate. Still getting green, but barely. Under 6.5 had some positive signals but failed confidence testing miserably.

VAN @ LA

Kings lost 6 of their last 10 home games, but won 3 of the last 4. Canucks lost 9 of their last 10 and are the league’s worst team. My preference is betting both sides to lose, but that violates the mandate. Typically, dog +1.5 is the default in this situation, but Canucks moneyline is supported by models, the fair line estimator, and profit scores. I’ll take a shot at +220, confidence modeling even wanted to slap a green light on this turd, but was overruled red. Over 5.5 passed confidence testing and gets a yellow light (signals not quite unanimous).

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

We may not have anymore standard betting reports, but we’ll quickly review a few notable stats from the week, with summary images too. It was a bad week for my yellow light ML-PL picks, but Chat GPT went 5-3 promoting yellow to green. My red light ML-PL went 18-16 and broke even, Chat GPT went 8-3 promoting red to yellow, for nearly a 70% promotion accuracy. My red light over/under went 28-25 and nearly broke even, GPT went 12-10 promoting my red to yellow. My yellow over/under went 3-7 for a big loss, so all signals pointing in one direction continues to be a bad indicator. Better return on conflicted signals, but a great week for overs in general, so perhaps I should be playing more macro trends.

BOS @ CAR

Boston only won 4 of their last 10 road games, but covered +1.5 goals 9 times, Carolina won 8 of 10 home games, covering -1.5 goals 3 times. My betting models are divided, but a slight preference for Bruins, except VML and V-1.5 are not backed up by fair line and profit scores. My choice is between V+1.5 at -155 or HML at -192 and I’m taking the better payout Bruins +1.5. Over 6.5 goals had positive signals but lacked model support.

CBJ @ DET

Columbus lost 6-straight, Detroit lost 8 of their last 10 home games, their fair line +186, so I’m not paying -125. My unbiased models have the most money on Wings moneyline, but more total money on the visiting side. Blue Jackets ML is backed up by the fair line estimator and profit scores, so that’s my pick, which should get a red light because of my flagrant Wings pessimism, except my unbiased confidence model scored this 63%, so I’ll give it a yellow light instead. Over 5.5 had more conflicting signals and failed confidence testing (which might be good).

FLA @ MTL

Montreal has already clinched a playoff spot by winning 8 of their last 10 games, so there is no “reverse jinx” temptation or desire to purchase sadness insurance, we can simply follow the signals. Models prefer Panthers, but profit scores and fair line eliminate them as an option, losing 8 of their last 10 road games and devastated by injury. Confidence modelling gives Montreal ML a 76% green light, but there’s also value on Habs -1.5 goals, so that’s tempting, but failed confidence testing. I’ll take home ML just to give this a green light, because -1.5 would deserve yellow at best. Over/under had conflicting signals because Montreal better under, Florida better over, I’m taking over 5.5 but it failed confidence testing.

PHI @ NJ

Philly won 9 of their last 10 road games, New Jersey won 7 of their last 10 home games, models love Flyers, backed-up by fair line and profit scores. All signs pointing VML, so that’s my pick. Confidence modelling even requested a 66% green light, I’m assigning a 55% green light, a barely pass. Over 5.5 goals even passed confidence testing, which doesn’t happen often because my bad OU performance is reflected in average confidence score. Half the score is “my profit with teams” plus “bet all (teams)” you see in pick graphics divided by two. The other half is complex criteria used by my Behaviorist model (discussed in the chat). FYI: This is the first green-yellow light combination, I had to make a new skeleton for this combo. There were a few games where I chose a red light over/under because I was too lazy to make the new frame.

TB @ OTT

Tampa won 7 of their last 10 games but only 1 of Jonas Johansson’s last 5 starts. Vasilevskiy is confirmed against Buffalo tonight, likely Jonas tomorrow, which is already priced into the line. Back-to-back radioactivity disqualifies green light, I’m doing a bad job VML and HML with these teams last 30 days, so I’ll tail my models on Sens -1.5 goals +200 because Johansson sucks and Ottawa is motivated. There’s some fire in that Bolts-Sabres series now, they might be banged up tomorrow. This bet failed confidence testing by a wide margin, as did under 6.5 goals (which had positive signals, hence why it’s my pick).

CGY @ DAL

The Calgary Flames recently won 4 of 5 games, but all of those were at home and they are 2-8 in their last 10 road games. Dallas cooled off considerably since their previous heater, going 2-7 in their last 9, but a majority of those on the road. My choice is an ugly one, between an overpriced Stars -250 moneyline and better-valued Flames +1.5 at -125, biggest issue being I’m performing better HML than V+1.5 with these teams last 30 days, but at least V+1.5 has model support, so I’ll stick with that chasing the higher payout. Over 5.5 had strongly conflicting signals and failed confidence testing.

SEA @ MIN

Seattle lost 8 of their last 10 games, Minnesota won 6 of 10, biggest problem here being Kraken back-to-back, so green light disqualified. My betting models love Wild ML, but they love most BTB, and there’s a tax on the -250 line. I don’t pay back-to-back taxes and Wild only covered twice -1.5 last 12 games. I’ll punt V+1.5 with low self-confidence. Confidence modelling wanted to give this a 67%, actually backed up by my best model (dog lover +1.5 who came included with the Optimizer spreadsheet annual subscribers received) and aggregator, but I’m still pulling this all the way down to 44% because I’d rather a minimum bet. Right now, my bet size is 100% correlated to light color (I can increase auto-price on green lights but rarely do). Also, BTB radioactivity demands red. Under 5.5 had conflicting signals and failed confidence testing.

COL @ STL

Blues just defeated Avalanche in Denver yesterday 3-2, with a rematch in St. Louis tomorrow. Avs have strangely struggled at home (as we’ve discussed often lately), but won 9 of their last 10 road games. Blues won 6 of their last 10 home games, and covered +1.5 goals in 22 of their last 24 overall. None of my best models like the home dog, so scratch that option. Colorado moneyline is my best bet with these teams last 30 days (Avs road, Blues home), and the fair line estimator even says I’m getting a little value. Given Blues just won the last game, I’m not green lighting the pick, but will give this a yellow. Under 6.5 had very positive signals and gets a yellow light, but “very positive signals procuring a yellow light” has a lower rate of return than “conflicting signals, stay away”. My confidence modelling scored it 40% red so I’ll stick with that.

EDM @ UTA

Utah won 5-straight road games and lost 6 of their last 7 home games, Colorado being the other high-altitude team with drastically better road than home results. Mammoth have not won a home game returning from a road trip since Jan 7. Before consulting models, Oilers moneyline was my desired selection, the biggest red flag being Hyman joining Draisaitl on the injury report. Utah has some injuries of their own, but not a pair of former 50-goal scorers. Models have a slight preference for Utah, but fair line and profit scores lean heavy to the road side. Confidence modelling gave VML a 68% score, but the Hyman injury and model preferences will demote this to yellow. Over 6.5 had conflicting signals and a stay away, but I’m taking it because I could have two goalies starting for my fantasy team and need some sadness insurance.

NSH @ ANA

Nashville is 5-5 in their last 10 road games, but won 4 of their last 5. Problem is they play LA tonight, Anaheim tomorrow, a no-airport back-to-back. That’s still enough to disqualify green light before digging deeper into the numbers. Anaheim lost 5-straight and 6 of their last 10 home games, allowing 24 goals in their last 5 GP, so my Ducks enthusiasm has diminished last 10 days (they are actually now my worst team last 30 days). That deeper dig showed a big tax on Anaheim ML and terrible profit scores home side with these teams last 30 days. I’m not paying a back-to-back tax on a cold favorite, Preds covered +1.5 in 9 of their last 10 road games, Ducks -1.5 in 1 of their last 10 home games, so fair line V+1.5 is -900 and I’m getting -198. That’s my pick, confidence modelling recommended an 80% score, but I’m demoting to 44% due to BTB radioactivity. Over 6.5 had very strong signals but narrowly failed confidence testing.

VEG @ VAN

Vancouver covered +1.5 once in their last 9 games, Vegas covered -1.5 goals in 3-straight, evidence the new coach is bumping, and acquitted alleged sex offender Carter Hart is back from injury. My betting models love Vegas -1.5 and I’m tailing, even lifting the green light ban on -1.5 PL. Over 6.5 also had positive signals but failed confidence testing.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

My only “New Year’s Resolution” was to start paying money to advertise this site, and doing some podcast interviews to promote. Twitter had too many restrictions on promoted content and wanted you to set up a whole “ad campaign” that was way more complicated than needed. With no more fantasy reports, that’s a substantial reduction of my weekly traffic. Doing a marketing blitz now with my biggest draw wrapped until August isn’t maxing bang for buck. Also, my brain is filled with ideas, renovations, new models, the list of summer projects is growing, including overhauls to how my content is being presented/delivered.

Site promotion will wind down for playoffs, focusing on the content, and unleash the blitzkrieg in September when my fantasy preview material is released. Those posts tend to draw lots of Google search traffic, the draft cheat sheet got a few thousand views.

MIN @ DET

This game was copy-pasted into my queue almost the exact minute puck dropped on Saturdays Wings-Rangers match, and I delayed turning on my television until the Sunday pick/write-up was completed. I don’t want Detroit winning or losing influencing my decision here, which is already compromised by superstition and bias. Models are divided with slightly more on Detroit, but profit scores and the fair line estimator leaning Wild. Minnesota won 6 of their last 10 road games, Wings lost 8 of their last 10 home games, so Minnesota fair line is -233 and I’m getting -120. Wild ML is my pick, and my unbiased confidence modelling assigned a yellow light. Whether or not that’s sufficient to convince you betting too is entirely up to you. Over/under had conflicting signals and a stay away, I’m going over because not sure if this will be Gibson, who has started about 15 games in a row.

FLA @ PIT

The injury-riddled Florida Panthers won 3 of their last 4 home games, but 1 of their last 5 road games, while Pittsburgh is 5-5 in their last 10 home games. Models like Penguins, HML has positive profit scores, but big home favorites have a terrible rate of return on Sunday, and Pens are playing their 5^th game in 7 days. That’s why I’m taking Florida +1.5 goals, but don’t feel good about it and giving this game a double red light. All signs pointed over 6.5 but I took under because it’s Sunday.

UPDATE: THAT WAS WRITTEN BEFORE PITTSBURGH BEAT THEM 9-4. Maybe stay away from this one…. (I’m at least encouraged by “all signs pointed over”)

BOS @ PHI

Philadelphia is one of two teams with a day off Saturday, and that rest advantage is likely why they’re a -148 favorite, also why my models love Philly. They love every back-to-back. Problem: the fair HML is a pick’em and Flyers are -148, and I’m still refusing back-to-back tax, so will take Bruins +1.5 goals. Under 5.5 had mixed signals, earning a red light, I’m just leaning unders Sundays.

CAR @ OTT

Senators won 7 of their last 10 home games, Hurricanes won 6 of their last 10 road games, so the fair Sens line is -122 and I’m getting +105. My models like Ottawa, the biggest problem is their injuries on defense (losing 2 more last 2 games), Sanderson a game-time decision Saturday (he returned). This would be ideal conditions for a dog +1.5, but Draft Kings jacked up this line. Typical +1.5 PL price on a +105 moneyline is -238, this one -265. You all know my hatred for paying taxes, and -265 is not a fun number to play, but the Carolina moneyline is also taxed with negative profit scores. This was a difficult decision requiring additional deliberation, but I’d rather play Ottawa moneyline +105 than +1.5 goals at -265. This gets a red light, as does under 6.5, which had multiple conflicting signals but it’s Sunday.

NJ @ MTL

Montreal won 7 of their last 10 home games, New Jersey won 4 of their last 10 road games (but 7 of 10 overall), so Canadiens fair line is -186 and I’m getting -155. Models are divided, largest position NJ ML, but more total on the home side. I’m taking Montreal moneyline, but flashing the red light because home favorites perform poorly on Sundays lately. Under 6.5 had strong supporting evidence but lacked model support.

WSH @ NYR

This game was surprisingly easy to decide, but I’m also sitting down to write this after Rangers beat Detroit, so possibly some Stockholm Syndrome infecting my brain. Both are back-to-back, and we have a high probability of Shesterkin vs Lindgren. My models like Rangers and there’s some value on the moneyline, but profit scores favor VML. I’ll take Rangers ML, but given that aforementioned concern, will only give this a yellow light. I’m not green light confident in either New York team right now. I’m taking under 5.5, but can’t encourage others taking Lindgren under 5.5 if that’s the starter.

STL @ COL

After pointing out high-altitude teams were struggling at home in the 2^nd half of the compressed schedule, Colorado spanked Calgary 9-2, then lost to Vancouver 8-6. The big red flag this game is Avs being on a back-to-back, Blues rested, but Colorado has a tough game in Dallas then flying home. My profit scores home side with these teams last 30 days is atrocious, and Avalanche fair line is +150, so no chance I’m paying -218. Models like Blues moneyline, but I’m performing brutally VML with these teams last 30 days, so must pass despite a juicy +180. The St Louis Blues covered +1.5 goals in 15-straight games and I’m doing good V+1.5 with these teams, so will make that pick with a yellow light. Under 6.5 had positive signals and gets a yellow light too.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

One big announcement, all my approved playoff bets will be shared for free shortly before puck drop exclusively on Instagram. The word “exclusive” in this case directly applies to “free before puck drop” because all picks drop first in Substack chat, and there will be a designated free chat thread in the first two rounds. In the unlikely event Detroit makes playoffs, there will be 2 free round one threads, otherwise Edmonton or Montreal will be the free series. The top ranked nightly bet gimmick won’t carry into playoffs because there’s not enough nightly games to chose from and margins get very thin very quickly.

DET @ NYR

First game of the day is the weirdest. You can’t trust my Detroit advice, and dead musicians are 2-0 invading my music player dispensing betting advice when sitting down to write Rangers write-ups. I need to go with what works until it stops working, the next song for this game is deceased Chan Romero, Hippy Hippy Shake. It’s a perfect metaphor to describe me handling Detroit’s playoff race collapse, because I’ve got a bad case of the shakes. I can’t sit still. Not sure Chan (died April 2024), is trying to push me to either side, just warning you to stay away from this one, and telling yours truly to trust unbiased indicators over feelings, that written prior to model consultation. Also, even if dead musician ghosts are truly invading my music player to dispense Rangers betting advice, doesn’t mean I can correctly interpret their message. Maybe Chan is encouraging me to trust my feelings. He seems to enjoy hippy hippy shakes, and encouraging embracing. After checking the numbers, models like Detroit, but a line tax and bad profit scores, so this is not in the bag. In situations like these, my tendency is default dog +1.5 goals, but low enthusiasm. Just stay away. Chan might enjoy the shakes, but I sure don’t….. (over/under had mixed signals and also a stay away)

MIN @ OTT

Minnesota won 6 of their last 10 road games, Ottawa won 7 of their last 10 home games, betting models leaning Wild, but I’m performing very poorly visiting side with these teams last 30 days and the fair line is leaning home. I’m taking Sens moneyline, which my unbiased confidence modelling assigned a yellow light, but I’m knocking this down to red because Minnesota winning helps Detroit and my fantasy team because my semi-finals opponent has Ullmark. This might be a happiness hedge, requiring warning sharing. Under 6.5 had very positive signals but lacked model support for a yellow light.

COL @ DAL

After astutely observing the high-altitude teams were struggling on home ice in the 2^nd half of this compressed schedule, Colorado crushed Calgary 9-2, leaving me feeling stupid for yellow lighting Flames +1.5 goals. Next game Avs lost 8-6 to the worst team in the NHL. The good news is, this one is in Dallas where Stars won 6 of 10, Colorado winning 9 of their last 10 road games. Unfortunately, models preferred Dallas while fair lines and profit scores like Colorado, so this gets a red light, but I’m taking the Avalanche because Vancouver just embarrassed Nathan MacKinnon and “angry MacKinnon” produced excellent profit last 2 years when appearing in my game notes. Not sure if that’s a good reason in 2025/26, but that’s my justification. Under 6.5 goals has strong supporting evidence but narrowly failed confidence testing.

FLA @ PIT

Pittsburgh is 5-5 in their last 10 home games, Florida 2-8 last 10 road games, but also won 2-straight with half their roster injured. Models are divided with a slight Pittsburgh preference, HML backed up by profit scores. I’m taking Pens moneyline and my confidence modelling assigned a 66% score, but I’m bumping that down to 44% red light, because I’m nervous about this dead cat bounce. Over 6.5 had very positive signals but failed confidence testing.

BOS @ TB

Boston won 6 of their last 10 games, but only 4 of their last 10 on the road. Tampa is 5-5 in their last 10 home games, but 4-2 on the current home-stand. My models prefer Lightning, but there’s a tax on home moneyline that I’m unwilling to pay, so will default Boston +1.5 goals. Given home favorites are coming off a strong Thursday, I’m giving this a red light, but only by a few percentage points. Over/under was a bigger pass. Stay away from that one.

MTL @ NJ

Montreal won 8 of their last 9 games, injecting more profit into the career return of the words “reverse jinx” in my game notes, building on last year’s excellent season ending. New Jersey is hot themselves, winning 7 of their last 10, excluding the game Tom Petty’s ghost warned me to pick Rangers. Sheryl Crowe (still alive) just popped on to say if it makes you happy, then it can’t be that bad. Feels like a recommendation to continue my current strategy, which fits with “why the Hell are you so sad” because it’s an effective strategy. All that was written before model consultation because it came on right after the game was copied into cue. Best models in this line range are all taking Jersey, but MTL ML did solicit a 50% yellow light confidence score and will be my pick. I’m just manually downgrading that to 37% confidence because Sheryl Crowe isn’t qualified to dispense gambling advice. I am going to yellow light under 6.5 which had excellent signals and passed confidence testing.

BUF @ WSH

Buffalo won 7 of their last 10 road games, Washington won 7 of 10 home games, but blown out by New Jersey last game (where my Logan Thompson blow-up sadness insurance paid off), so we could be seeing Charlie Lindgren’s first start in 3 weeks. Models prefer Caps, fair line and profit scores lacking strong preference either way. I’m taking Sabres moneyline, but need to give it a red light due to lack of supporting evidence. Over/under had conflicting signals and a stay away.

NYI @ CAR

Islanders are 5-5 in their last 10 games, and had an epic 2^nd period meltdown against Pittsburgh March 30 that felt momentum killing in magnitude (that written before their Flyers loss tonight). The red flag here is they play tonight and tomorrow, earning no model support, so I’m picking Carolina moneyline. It gets a red light, though I just noticed every ML/PL thus far also received a red light and we’re running out of games. Not sure I should force a green light just for the sake of having one.

WPG @ CBJ

The Columbus Blue Jackets activated the new coach bump at an ideal moment to get back in the playoff race, but the diminishing returns are fully bloomed, losing 6 of their last 7. Jets aren’t bumping much either, winning 4 of their last 6, but losing 6 of their last 10 road games. This is a tax avoidance situation where I’m taking Jets +1.5 goals, BJs a little too pricey for the cold streak. Confidence modelling wanted to green light this, but I had a bad Thursday on confident V+1.5 picks. Modelling likes all of them.

TOR @ LA

Toronto lost 7 of their last 10 road games, Kings lost 7 of 10 home games, an ugly game I can’t bet both to lose. My best models in this line range have the most money on Leafs -1.5 goals, and I’ll take a shot at +376. I’m certainly not paying -198 for the Kings, not in love with Toronto either, so I’ll scratch a lottery ticket. Dogs -1.5 have produced net profit the last few weeks and I’ve barely participated. Leafs +1.5 is a smarter bet that confidence scores might have green lit instead of a very bright red. Over 5.5 had positive signals, but I’m preforming badly with these teams last 30 days over/under.

UTA @ VAN

We finally have a green light, decision made within a few seconds, Utah won 7 of their last 10 road games, Vancouver lost 8 of their last 10 home games, models love Mammoth, supported by fair line and profit scores. All signs decidedly visitor moneyline, confidence modelling even gave that a 74%. Should I be concerned Vancouver just beat Colorado 8-6? Maybe, but I’m excited to use the species I designed for Utah bet of the night images. Over 6.5 had some strong signals, but lacked model support.

CGY @ ANA

Calgary had won 5 of 6 games, but all of those were at home and they’re 0-2 on this current road trip, allowing 15 goals. Ducks lost 3-straight, but played a road heavy schedule lately, winning 6 of their last 10 at home. Anaheim would be a slam dunk pick here, if not for playing Friday. Tired home vs rested road are only 5-6 in their last 11 opportunities, but 9-2 before that. Models love Calgary, but are biased against tired teams. Fair line supports Ducks, profit scores don’t, so my Anaheim ML pick gets a red light. Over 6.5 had stronger signals but failed confidence testing.

VEG @ EDM

Oilers won 5-straight and 7 of their last 10, not missing Leon Draisaitl as much as expected and a big reason is improved play of the goaltending. Ingram is likely to be on my bench for this one, which might actually increase the probability of an excellent performance. Vegas won 2-straight, but against 2 of the league’s worst teams, so let’s not confuse that for bumping. Models support Edmonton, backed up by fair line and profit scores, Oilers are hotter so I’ll take Edmonton ML. Confidence modelling wanted a green light, but possibility of new coach bump (which isn’t a Torts common outcome first 10 games of his stops), forces the yellow. Under 6.5 goals had very strong supporting evidence, but not sure I can encourage that here.

NSH @ SJ

Sharks looked dead in the water, but suddenly won 4-straight, boosted by returning home, where they have won 6 of their last 10. Nashville lost 6 of their last 10 road games and 3 of their last 4, earning support from none of my best models, who love Sharks. Fair line says -150 and I’m getting -115, making SJ ML my pick, but the profit scores are very bad so this failed confidence testing and gets a red light. There was higher confidence (from excellent supporting evidence) for under 6.5, but also failed confidence testing. Sharks are getting stops, so their overs are cooling, Nashville strong under 6.5.

CHI @ SEA

Chicago lost 5-straight and 8 of their last 10 games, while Seattle lost 7 of their last 8, but most of those road losses. Big problem here is my brutal handling of the Blackhawks last 30 days, so this is double red light before even looking at the supporting evidence, which provided conflicting/negative signals. I’m going off the board and taking Chicago -1.5 goals +314 because the wise philosopher Jerry Seinfeld once said, “if every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite must be right”. Not sure Jerry is a proficient gambler, so maybe stay away from this altogether. Over 5.5 had strong supporting evidence, but still gets a red light for lacking model support.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

It’s been at least 10 days since I looked at the Eastern Conference wildcard standings, but can gather from the scoreboard Detroit is screwed. They were +200 to make the playoffs before losing their last two against wildcard competitors, the silver lining being my opponent in the fantasy semi-finals has John Gibson. There is no reason to purchase “sadness insurance” by defaulting to their wildcard competition anymore, as disappointment is virtually guaranteed. This card was completed mostly free of personal bias, following the numbers, aside from the ghost of Tina Turner possibly nudging me towards Montreal moneyline, but otherwise accepting fate.

BUF @ OTT

Buffalo won 8 of their last 10 road games, Ottawa 7 of their last 10 home games, so Sens fair line is +122 and they’re -125. We just discussed dogs surging, and I’m getting a hot one here, so Sabres ML is my pick despite betting models showing slight Senators preference. That lack of model support is why Buffalo is getting a yellow light instead of green. Under 6.5 had very strong supporting evidence, but I’m red lighting all my OU picks on this card.

DET @ PHI

Philadelphia won 7 of their last 10 games, Detroit lost 7 of their last 10. My models like Flyers, fair line estimator supported, and I’m performing well HML with these teams last 30 days. Removing my own bias, all signs point Flyers, and my unbiased confidence modelling gave that a yellow light. Over 5.5 goals, however, failed confidence testing, models like over, recent results favor under. My own bias was removed, letting the numbers drive bet selection.

BOS @ FLA

Florida lost 6 of their last 10, but won 6 of their last 10 home games. Boston won 7 of their last 10, but lost 6 of their last 10 road games. Panthers have several key injuries, but that didn’t stop them from spanking Ottawa yesterday. My models like Panthers +1.5 goals, fair line is -900 and I’m getting -218, plus Bruins only covered -1.5 goals once in their last 13 road games. I’m still giving this a red light because of the injuries, at the very least there’s strong evidence to stay away from Boston here. Over 6.5 had conflicting signals and failed confidence testing.

MTL @ NYR

The ghost of Tom Petty tried encouraging me to pick Rangers last game by invading my music player and selecting “even the losers get lucky sometimes” next on shuffle. I ignored and lost. If we’re letting ghosts pick Ranger games, Tina Turner Simply the Best just popped on next. Montreal is clearly the better team, winning 6-straight and 7 of their last 10. Sadly, my betting models prefer Rangers (who won 3-straight) and I’m doing a bad job VML with these teams last 30 days. I’m listening to Tina and taking the better team, but that failed confidence testing and gets a red light. Under 6.5 had more positive signals and nearly earned a yellow light.

CBJ @ CAR

Columbus lost 5 of their last 6 games, including a 5-2 loss on home ice against these same Canes yesterday. My pick for that game was BJs +1.5 goals, citing how they covered in most of their last 25 games. Then they failed to cover, and it lacks logic expecting a better result as this goes to Carolina where Canes won 8 of their last 10. My models are divided, most money on VML, but more total money on home side. Problem with Carolina is the line tax, -185 instead of -150. Favorites aren’t performing well enough to justify paying taxes, so I’m rolling back my Columbus +1.5 pick. Confidence modelling gave that 76%, but I manually adjusted to 44% because this same bet lost last game against same opponent. Over 6.5 was nearly given a yellow light by confidence modelling, but lacked model support and fell short.

PIT @ TB

Pittsburgh lost 3 of 4 before winning 3 of 4, Tampa 5-5 in their last 10 home games. The tax on the Tampa line eliminates their eligibility despite models liking H-1.5. Pens are great covering +1.5 goals so that’s my pick here, confidence modeling gave it a 79%, but I’m adjusting that down to 50% due to models supporting opposite. Confidence modelling loves dogs +1.5 goals if you haven’t noticed from my write-ups and Chat GPT keeps telling me I’m punishing the entire demographic way too much. We have very strong signals on over 6.5 goals, but I’m red lighting all OU today.

WSH @ NJ

Washington won 3-straight but only 4 of their last 10 road games. Devils won 6 of their last 10 home games, but dealt us disappointment losing vs Rangers. Big problem, models like Washington, fair line and profit scores like Devils. This is auto-red light. Yes, Logan Thompson might be starting for my fantasy team, but he also started 8-straight. Caps +1.5 has even more negative value than ML, because all 6 of those road losses were by at least 2 goals. Devils -1.5 is the best value on the board, but that drew a 29% from confidence modelling. It’s my pick, just rolling the dice on a +200 payout. Over 5.5 received a green light from confidence modelling, but lacked model support for yellow, making this match double red light.

WPG @ DAL

Jets won 4 of their last 5 games, and covered +1.5 in 9 of their last 10 road games. Dallas lost 6 of their last 7 and covered -1.5 once in their last 10. Fair Stars ML is -122, so I’m not paying -180. Models like Dallas, but I’m taking Jets +1.5 goals -175, that fair line -567. Confidence modelling gave that 80%, but I’m not prepared to green light this, especially without model support. Over/under had mixed signals and failed confidence testing.

VAN @ MIN

Vancouver lost 6-straight, all by at least 2 goals, and 9 of their last 10 road games (covering +1.5 only 3 times). Problem, Canucks play tonight, adding radioactivity to this contest. Next problem, Wild won 3 of their last 9, covering -1.5 goals zero times, 5-5 in their last 10 home games, so there’s a big tax on this line. My hard rule not paying back-to-back taxes is still intact, but this game is likely to be on my TV, and don’t want to be cheering for Vancouver to prevail. I’ll go Wild -1.5 goals, which will automatically sink the confidence score well below red light. Proceed at your own risk, over/under is a pass.

UPDATE: This write-up and bet selection was made prior to puck drop in Vancouver-Colorado. It’s currently 6-4 Vancouver at publication.

CHI @ EDM

Chicago has 1 win in their last 7 games and allowed 20 goals in their last 4. Oilers are only 5-5 in their last 10 home games, so we’ve got a big red flag on their taxed moneyline. The even bigger red flag is my awful handling of the Chicago Blackhawks last 30 days. They win when I pick them to lose, and visa versa when picking wins/covers. My models are leaning Chicago, I’m just doing a bad job V+1.5 with these teams last 30 days. I’m taking Chicago +1.5 and hate the pick. My confidence modelling wanted 67% but I bumped that down to 35% because Hawks radioactive, Oilers unreliable. Edmonton only went over 6.5 twice in their last 6 games, both overs by half a goal. Ingram is playing well, the only risk is Jarry getting this start. Oilers went over 6.5 in 8-straight Jarry starts. Ingram I’d take under, Jarry over, and right now don’t which is starting. I’m taking over 6.5, the tie breaker being I’m facing McDavid in fantasy and might start Ingram if he’s playing. I need a sadness hedge for both hurting my fantasy team. That’s a bad reason to tail my pick. If you want to play over/under, wait until the goalies are confirmed.

TOR @ SJ

Leafs won 3 of their last 4 games, and 4 of their last 10 road games, San Jose won 2-straight and 5 of 10 at home. Very similar hotness profiles, but complicated by Sharks on a home back-to-back. I’m taking Leafs ML to get the +100, but it gets a red light advising you to stay away. There were positive signals on over 6.5 goals, but failed confidence testing. Running Against the Wind just came on shuffle, an excellent way to describe my handling of home back-to-back disadvantages this year. Bob Seger is still alive, so unlikely a ghost invasion situation. That song is a great fit on my model building playlist, more so on the over/under side. I might listen to that on a loop rebuilding my OU models this summer….

UTA @ SEA

Utah lost 6 of their last 10 games, but won 7 of their last 10 road games. Seattle is returning home from a 1-5 road trip, but are 5-5 in their last 10 home games. Fair Utah line is -150 and I’m getting -135, supported by betting models and profit scores. My confidence modelling awarded VML a 74% score, but I’m pulling that down to 56% because my week is off to a bad start and my average confidence is lower as a result. Over/under is a stay away.

CGY @ VGK

The Flames fledgling heater was smothered by an Avalanche, losing 9-2 to Colorado last game (and I may have overreacted to Colorado’s performance). Most of Calgary’s recent wins were at home, losing 8 of their last 10 road games. Vegas only won 4 of their last 10 home games, so the fair line is -150, meaning -250 is being taxed, probably with everyone expecting a Bowness-style new coach bump (and not a Kings-style pot-hole). When Vegas wins, it tends to be by 2+ goals, so I’m gambling on home -1.5 here, but lacked the model support for a yellow light. My own confidence modelling is very punitive on big favorites -1.5 goals and gave this a 27% score which I boosted to 41%. Over 5.5 also failed confidence testing. Double red light.

NSH @ LA

Nashville won 5-straight before losing 3-straight, Kings lost 5 of their last 6 and 8 of their last 10 on home ice. Models prefer Nashville, but with very weak support. Fair line and profit scores also favor VML, the biggest issue is that Kings are back-to-back, which seems to help home teams win now. Preds moneyline did receive a green light confidence score, but the home btb forbids approval and gets a red light. Under 5.5 failed confidence testing by a much wider margin, but was my pick for the plus money. Over had worse signals.

Good luck!

Before we go any further, it’s time for my regularly scheduled obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. However, my sister is betting nearly all of these with bets ranging from 25 cents to a dollar.

Free subscribers have been receiving lots of free bets lately and you’ll get the full Tuesday card with all the pick graphics and analysis once again. More gets pulled behind the paywall in playoffs and I’m really hoping the exceptional hit rate of those bets shared has your bank accounts filled with disposable income to invest in full access. There are no more “best bet of the night” in playoffs, but free subscribers will be getting the round one preview with my series and game one picks. Chat GPT won’t be ranking my playoff picks, because the environment is radically different than the data we’re currently using. None of those rules apply anymore. My betting models all have unique playoff-specific instructions, so whoever was hottest the previous few weeks loses all relevancy.

Last week was outstanding for underdogs, so the whole post-deadline favorites surge that history predicted never materialized. It was also a big week for overs, but I’m not letting macro conditions dictate these picks, aside from leaning slightly over and increasing reluctance to pay taxes on favorites. We’re also approaching the stage when teams locked into their playoff positions start resting players, which is why dogs tend to thrive in the final week of the season. That said, history hasn’t been repeating this entire year, so expecting the unexpected has exceed betting historical precedence.

Tomorrow’s Games

Not as busy tomorrow as last Tuesday, so this post is going up earlier. We do have two new Chat GPT ranking threads, separating ML-PL and over-under. If you don’t trust GPT, you can also see my own personal confidence score beside the GPT score.

DET @ PIT

We may as well address the elephant in the room first, Wings are now +200 to make the playoffs and perilously closer to contention elimination. It’s not potential Wings bias that red flags this game, it is Pittsburgh playing tonight, and home teams dominating and short rest the last few months. The biggest issue with this game is Crosby-Malkin status remaining unclear at the moment. Malkin isn’t playing tonight but was a full participant in practice, Crosby a game-time decision, but both could play tomorrow. Strangely, profit scores and the fair line estimator are leaning Detroit’s way because they’ve been slightly better on the road than Pens at home. Still, I’ll take home +1.5 goals, but with 35% confidence. Just stay away from this altogether. Models liked Detroit too. Over/under had mixed signals and also failed confidence testing.

DAL @ BOS

Dallas was among the league’s hottest teams but have since lost 6 of their last 8 games while Boston won 3-straight and 15 of their last 17 home games. Betting models like Boston and home moneyline is backed up by profit scores and the fair line estimator. This checked all the boxes for a green light, confidence modelling even scored HML at 64%, but I manually adjusted that down to 54%, just shy of the green light cutoff, out of respect for Dallas and my own desire they win this game. Under 6.5 had positive signals but lacked model support and earned a red light.

NYI @ BUF

The Islanders are playing tonight with Sorokin in goal, so the back-to-back immediately draws a red light regardless of the side I’m choosing. They could go back to Sorokin on short rest, but it adds risk (Rittich .868 SV% last 30 days). I’m still on the Sabres bandwagon, but given Islanders road proficiency, there is a massive tax on their -198 moneyline. I’m still refusing to pay back-to-back taxes, while the fair Isles line +1.5 goals is -400 and I’m getting -148. BTB forces the red light, but my confidence modeling really liked it (but with a tendency to love most dogs +1.5). Chat GPT might like this because I’m excellent at red lights +1.5. Under 6.5 had strong profit score support, but not models.

MTL @ TB

Montreal won 5-straight and 6 of their last 10 road games while Tampa won 6 of their last 10 home games, making the fair line a pick’em, which also eliminates Tampa moneyline -170 as an option. My models like Lightning -1.5 goals, but Montreal covered +1.5 goals in 19 of their last 22 games. That’s also why Montreal +1.5 goals is my pick, but lacked the signal support for a green light (confidence modelling loved the pick, which it tends to do with dogs +1.5). Over 6.5 had some strong signals but failed confidence testing.

OTT @ FLA

Florida lost 6 of their last 8 games and half their team is injured, so there’s no way I’m taking them. The bad news, Senators had no model support (best model notwithstanding), there’s a slight tax on the Ottawa line, and I’ve a little outcome bias, so Sens ML -170 gets a red light. Over 5.5 goals had stronger signals but failed confidence testing.

NJ @ NYR

New Jersey won 10 of their last 14 games while the Rangers are 7-7 showing a refusal to die. Even the losers get lucky sometimes (RIP Tom Petty, that song came up next on shuffle (from 1,100 songs) as I was writing this), but in this case the loser is lacking model support and sufficient profit scores to earn my consideration. Hopefully Tom wasn’t trying to communicate with me from beyond the grave through my music player with a hot tip to bet Rangers here. I’m tailing my models with Devils moneyline, but it fails to get a green light because there’s a slight tax. Models liked under 5.5 goals, but New Jersey went over 5.5 in 11 of their last 13 games. Over had strong profit scores and received a rare 65% score from confidence modelling. I’m not performing well enough top of card for over/under to green light any OU picks, so we’ll give this one a 54% final score.

PHI @ WSH

Philadelphia won 12 of their last 16 games, even formerly terrible back-up Samuel Ersson has 5-straight wins. Washington has been mediocre, better at home but the fair line estimator says Philly should be favored, that’s backed up by models and profit scores, checking all the boxes for a green light. Both teams are competing for the wildcard, so that eliminates potential bias (aside from Logan Thompson on my fantasy team, he has just started several games in a row and not a lock to play here, so I may bench for Connor Ingram). Though betting Washington to win was just my top bet of the week. Over/under had conflicting signals and a stay away.

CAR @ CBJ

Columbus lost 4 of their last 5 games and are 5-5 in their last 10 at home. Carolina won 6 of their last 10 road games, so the fair line estimator agrees they should be favored. Problem is, my models are divided, largest position V-1.5 goals, but more total money on home side. Neither moneyline is “structurally clean”, the best bet on the board is actually Columbus +1.5 goals, which they covered in 24 of their last 25 games. Fair line is -300 and I’m getting -218, confidence modelling gave this a 74% score, but manually downgraded to 52% to produce yellow instead of green light. Over 6.5 had positive signals and nearly received a yellow light, but fell just short. I’m doing a good job on 6.5 totals with these teams last 30 days.

WPG @ CHI

First glance I had no idea which side to pick, as I’m eager for both these teams to drop out of my daily life. Chicago especially, because they are my worst team last 30 days and I’m taking a giant loss both betting them to win and lose. Jets rank top 10 in L30 profit and won 3 of their last 4, but I’m playing the best value on the board, Hawks +1.5. I’m manually adjusting confidence down from 76% in modelling to 39% because this team is radioactive in my hands lately. Over/under is a hard pass.

SEA @ EDM

Seattle won 3 of their last 12 games, Oilers won 3-straight and 6 of their last 10, but still not a team I trust. Kraken lack models support and profit scores to justify a pick here, so I’ll put a minimum red light bet on Oilers moneyline, despite a slight tax. Ingram could be starting for my fantasy team, but if this were attempting reverse jinx (or purchasing sadness insurance) Oilers wouldn’t be my pick. Over 6.5 had positive signals but failed confidence testing.

Good luck!

For the next 7 days, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a 5-game schedule, but 4 of those on the busiest nights, plus Malkin and Crosby are banged up (neither played Saturday), lowering the tide for docked boats. Maybe Erik Karlsson is boosting a few of those boats single-handedly, and the stars could return. You might be better off with St. Louis or Anaheim players playing Mon-Wed-Fri and easy to fit into your roster. Scroll down to the bottom for some bonus strength of schedule graphics to help you with roster management. My team next round has no conflicts (goalies aside, but that’s good because I can cherry pick best opportunities) until Saturday, with only 2 active streaming slots currently occupied by Sennecke and Ingram.

This might be the last fantasy report until August, but there will be spring-summer content on player valuations and free agency. My preliminary 2027 contract predictions list will be a lot more exciting than the 2026 final forecast. Not many pending free agents left on the board. There is still LOTS more betting content coming before the Cup is awarded, but if you don’t gamble, you can opt out of that specific content using the unsubscribe button, but still get all the fantasy on contract posts. Approved top bets are now 32-10 since ranking began, shared daily for free, dropping first in the free betting chat thread.

Best Standard League Adds (20% to 65% Yahoo ownership):

1) Rickard Rakell, Pit, (61% Yahoo ownership): When Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are injured, the Penguins center top line and top power play becomes Rickard Rakell, who is eligible at all 3 forward positions on Yahoo. Even if both return for all 5 games next week, Rakell should still be top line and top power play. Ricky is the man when they’re out, but gets residual production alongside when they’re healthy. Last 17 GP, he scored 16 PTS (7 on the PP) with 34 shots and 16 hits. Crosby barely played those games, so Ricky is thriving under sub-optimal circumstances. Another more widely available option on my own roster is Beckett Sennecke, because Ducks have an excellent schedule on Monday and Wednesday. The rookie has been a frequent plug here this season, scoring 13 PTS in his last 15 GP with 43 shots and 23 hits.

2) Stuart Skinner, Pit, (44% Yahoo ownership): Stuart Skinner didn’t play in the Olympics, but returned from the break a less effective puck stopper. Plausible that’s a product of his environment with Crosby missing most of those games and playing an important defensive role, but Stuart only has 2 wins with an .883 SV% in his last 9 games. The good news is Pittsburgh has a very busy week and he’ll be getting 2-3 starts, available in 55% of Yahoo leagues. Assuming he plays against Detroit Tuesday, that’s a guaranteed win right there with the Wings collapsing again in March. If you want a hotter option with weaker opponents, both St. Louis goalies are scorching, with easy opponents playing Mon-Wed-Fri. Joel Hofer would be my first choice, with 6 wins and a .955 SV% in his last 8 GP.

3) Jimmy Snuggerud, Stl, (24% Yahoo ownership): The St. Louis Blues have the 3^rd best schedule and that’s before factoring in 3 light nights, slim Jim playing on their top line with Holloway and Thomas, plus the 2^nd power play unit. In his last 15 GP, the winger scored 15 PTS (only 1 on the PP) with 46 shots and 17 hits. Not doing much on the power play, but even strength is outstanding. He spent a day on my fantasy roster earlier this month, and has been productive across a large sample of games, making him an excellent candidate for next September’s “Draft Bargains” list (depending on where Yahoo ranks him). Another option on fire lately is Pavel Zacha in Boston, scoring 19 PTS (4 on the PP) in his last 15 GP with 30 shots, 14 hits, and a +8. It’s a tough schedule for Boston, but difficult opponents haven’t slowed that production lately.

4) Anthony Mantha, Pit, (35% Yahoo ownership): The first line in Pittsburgh without Crosby or Malkin is Mantha-Rakell-Rust, though I’m not sure either elder star returning would necessarily hurt Mantha’s value, since he’d likely be playing with Malkin. Worst case is Crosby-Malkin both out long-term and they move Mantha to a lower line hoping to boost that line’s ceiling. Tony is eligible at both wings and scored 12 PTS (3 on the PP) in his last 17 GP with 30 shots and 18 hits. His ice time got a big boost last 3 games, but he was on a 4-game pointless streak (with only 4 shots) before scoring Saturday. Another option offering multi-category quality is Owen Tippett in Philly, eligible at both wings, scoring 12 PTS (1 on the PP) in his last 14 GP with 54 shots and 32 hits. Flyers have a tough upcoming schedule, hence why Zacha and Tippett are only honorable mentions, not top billing.

5) K’Andre Miller, Car, (24% Yahoo ownership): If you added K’Andre Miller on my advice last week, may as well let it ride because Carolina has another 4-game slate, although the toughest schedule of the 4G teams with no light nights. He’s logging nearly 23 minutes per game last 30 days, just not on the power play. In his last 15 GP, the defenseman scored 9 PTS (none on the PP) with 25 shots and 26 hits. More functionality if you’re scoring those peripheral stats, but if the offense was better, he wouldn’t be available in 76% of leagues. That offense might be better than all the other blueline waiver options in your format. Another option is Alexander Nikishin in Carolina, who only averaged 16:37 minutes per game last 30 days, but scored 7 PTS (4 on the PP) in his last 14 GP with 22 shots and 16 hits. The big Russian hasn’t pinged my radar often this season because he spent most of it >65% owned, but the stock has dipped.

Honorable Mentions: Beckett Sennecke, Joel Hofer, Pavel Zacha, Owen Tippett, Alexander Nikishin

Last Week: Alexis Lafreniere, Vincent Trocheck, Charlie Coyle, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Thomas Chabot

Best Deep League Adds (under 20% ownership):

1) Yegor Chinakhov, Pit, (19% Yahoo ownership): The Columbus castaway has been pinging the radar often lately and for good reason, 14 PTS (4 on the PP) in his last 17 GP, with 47 shots and 10 hits. The other bye team in the subscriber league dropped Clayton Keller to add Chinakhov because Utah only plays twice. The issue here is that Malkin chemistry had something to do with that hot streak and if Gino-Sid don’t play many of these 5 games, touching the ceiling becomes a tougher task. He’s available in 80% leagues, eligible at both wings, and averaging 20 minutes of ice time last 2 games. Gabe Perreault occupied this slot last week, and if he’s on your roster as a result, you can hang on because Rangers have another 4-gamer ahead. In his last 15 GP, the rookie scored 13 PTS (3 on the PP) with 25 shots and 3 hits. This is another prime target for next season’s sleepers list.

2) Connor Brown, NJ, (4% Yahoo ownership): If you added Connor Brown on my advice last week, Devils have another 4-game slate and CB is still playing with Jack Hughes even strength and top power play. He’s averaging nearly 19 minutes per game last 30 days on a team scoring a healthy number of goals. In his last 14 GP, Connor scored 14 PTS (3 on the PP) with 24 shots and 2 hits. If you don’t already own Brown, Devils have a back-loaded schedule with Thu-Sat-Sun, so an excellent candidate to replace front-loaded options (like Anaheim) to close out your match-up. Another option getting top line and top power play minutes in Vancouver is Brock Boeser, scoring 12 PTS (6 on the PP) in his last 14 GP, with 28 shots and 13 hits. Canucks suck and he’s -8, so if you’re sensitive to bad +/- you should probably avoid this option.

3) Alex Killorn, Ana, (3% Yahoo ownership): If you’re looking for a player eligible at every position, available in 97% of Yahoo leagues, with a great upcoming schedule (including Mon-Wed), playing 2^nd line and 2^nd power play, Alex Killorn checks all those boxes. In his last 10 GP, Alex scored 8 PTS (none on the power play) with 17 shots and 8 hits. He’s playing with my guy Sennecke at even strength and an excellent option to start your week and swap out later for a back-loaded option. He’s getting plenty of ice time on a productive team, and sitting on many waiver wires. If you prefer younger legs late in the season, Jackson Blake is playing line 2 and power play 2 in Carolina. In his last 14 GP, the young winger scored 11 PTS (1 on the PP) with 38 shots and 1 hit. Blake is a candidate for my fall draft bargains post, but that’s always dependent on Yahoo rankings.

4) Logan Mailloux, Stl, (2% Yahoo ownership): We’ve already mentioned Blues fantastic schedule and alleged former sex offender Logan Mailloux is finding his stride on the Island of misfit toys. In his last 15 GP, the young blueliner is averaging 22 minutes per game, scoring 6 PTS (1 on the PP) with 31 shots and 25 hits. He does offer more value in leagues scoring hits and shots, but also +7 in that span if you’re scoring that too. The primary reason he’s here is getting lots of ice on a team with great schedule and available in 98% of leagues. I run my fantasy team like Blues management; I don’t care about sex offender allegations if you help me win. If you want a clearer conscious, Sam Malinski in Colorado has an excellent upcoming schedule and scored 6 PTS (none on the PP) in his last 15 GP, adding 24 shots, 11 hits, and a +9.

5) Alex Nedeljkovic, SJ, (8% Yahoo ownership): Once again if you’re in a really deep league and need a goalie, you’re dealing with a limited pool of available options. With Askarov battling injury, the path is cleared for Nedeljkovic to handle a heavy workload ahead. Sharks play 4 times and they’re all winnable games, but your GAA and SV% won’t necessarily benefit from the scheduling. In his last 10 GP, Ned has 4 wins with a 3.13 GAA and .877 SV%, which isn’t great, but nobody in this tier is sniffing greatness anytime soon. Ingram, Allen, and Andersen are more appealing options, but owned in too many leagues to qualify for this slot. Another option who does is Arturs Silovs with Pittsburgh playing 5 times. He’s down at an .860 SV% last 30 days, so you’re gambling if you’re sensitive to the rate stats. I also like Ville Husso for a spot-start whenever he does play, I’m just not sure when that will be (possibly only their back-to-back against Calgary).

Honorable Mentions: Gabe Perreault, Brock Boeser, Jackson Blake, Sam Malinski, Arturs Silovs

Last Week: Gabe Perreault, Vladislav Gavrikov, Jacob Fowler, Connor Brown, Jamie Benn