Peak hourly load yesterday was 83,910 MW, 2.1% lower than yesterday’s forecast of 85,700 MW. Peak load was above the upper band of the trailing 5-year maximum load range. The daily minimum (morning) load was above the upper band of the 5-year minimum load range. (The ranges average over 5 years and one week either side.)

The average daily load yesterday was 71,940 MW. Yesterday’s estimate was for 72,020 MW. Record peak hourly load is currently 91,090 MW from 22-Jul-2026.

ERCOT’s peak load forecast for today is higher than yesterday’s actual at 86,300 MW. The forecast for tomorrow moves to 84,300 MW.

For weekly averages this week ending this coming Friday 04-Sep 15Z, the average power is estimated to be 72.01 GW, up 0.42 GW from yesterday’s estimate and lower than last week’s record value. The verification for last week ending last Friday 28-Aug 15Z was 74.54 GW, the current record, and 74.14 GW the week before which was the prior weekly average record.

Weather

The Dallas area temperatures have been much above the 20-year mean. The coming rain may not reach Dallas but the clouds likely will. Warm again after.

Houston and the Coast Zone temperatures went closer to the 20-year mean, but the rain fell East of KIAH. Normal to above is the forecast.

Today, NOAA’s 7-Day QPF has rain coming from what is now Tropical Depression Edouard, and it is expected to last a couple more days. Rain has been East of yesterday’s expectation.

Generation

Wind supply still has a large diurnal swing, and this is expected to continue through the forecast.

Read more

Peak hourly load yesterday was 88,522 MW, 1.1% lower than yesterday’s forecast of 89,500 MW. Peak load was above the upper band of the trailing 5-year maximum load range. The daily minimum (morning) load was above the upper band of the 5-year minimum load range. (The ranges average over 5 years and one week either side.)

The average daily load yesterday was 73,390 MW. Yesterday’s estimate was for 74,000 MW. Record peak hourly load is currently 91,090 MW from 22-Jul-2026.

ERCOT’s peak load forecast for today is lower than yesterday’s actual at 85,700 MW. The forecast for tomorrow moves to 84,600 MW.

For weekly averages this week ending this coming Friday 04-Sep 15Z, the average power is estimated to be 71.59 GW, down 0.23 GW from yesterday’s estimate and lower than last week’s record value. The verification for last week ending last Friday 28-Aug 15Z was 74.54 GW, the current record, and 74.14 GW the week before which was the prior weekly average record.

Weather

The Dallas area temperatures have been much above the 20-year mean. The coming rain may not reach Dallas but the clouds likely will. Note the reduced temperature the next couple of days, but they are expected to rebound after.

Houston and the Coast Zone temperatures have been generally above the 20-year mean. A small cooling is expected from here with the pending rain.

Today, NOAA’s 7-Day QPF has rain coming from what is now Tropical Storm Edouard, and it is expected to last about 4 days.

Here is the NHC’s rain forecast.

Generation

Wind supply still has a large diurnal swing, and this is expected to continue through the forecast.

Read more

This week’s system average power load expectation is 71.82 GW (ending Friday 04-Sep at 15 UT) compared to 74.54 GW last week—the new weekly average record. Load are likely downhill from here but still at very high levels due mainly to growth but also this year due to the heat.

Generation

The weekly table containing weekly average power and generation is here. The net storage numbers which are currently included in the “Other” category. This table includes information through this morning

.Last week coal dispatch came in at 9.61 GW. This week the expectation is lower at 8.87 GW, historically in the lower part of the distribution, but our numbers tend to underestimate the coal generation by ~5% early in the week.

This week, our estimate for natural gas fueled power generation is 30.91 GW (ending 04-Sep). Natural gas power generation last week was very high at 37.59 GW. Gas generation this week is in the middle portion of the 5-year band for this week.

Nuclear generation was 4.81 GW last week due to a slight reduction at Comanche Peak Unit-1. Current projection for this week is 4.96 GW.

Wind production last week was 9.75 GW (ending 28-Aug 15 UT). This week, the expectation is lower at 13.74 GW (ending 04-Sep 15 UT)—above the upper 5-year band. Wind is usually lower in the early Fall as the atmosphere turns-around.

Solar production over a weekly average was 12.66 GW last week (ending 28-Aug 15UT). The 24-hour averaged solar electric production is estimated to be 12.41 GW for the current week. Current record is from 31-Jul-2026 at 14.50 GW.

Storage intake and dispatch remains strong this past week with near record values the last two days. Current dispatch record is 13,255 MW from 23-Aug-2026 in the evening. Yesterday, it was 12,069 MW.

Load Growth

Last week, the load was 4.1% above last year. With a (linear) temperature (degree-day) adjustment, the y-o-y growth was 2.3%. Averaged over 8 weeks, the adjusted growth is estimated at 4.1% (vs. 4.5% estimate two weeks ago).

Here are the y-o-y growth values for each Weather Zone.

Note that the North and Far West regions are no longer growing. The West Zone, the zone with the most growth over the past year, is expected to slow with the new moratorium on data centers. Here is the plot for the Far West Zone. It looks like the Load is contracting, but it is too early to tell. For the moment, it is likely flat for the year.

Real-Time Prices

The Real-Time prices were more active last week compared to the week before. High evening prices have been good for storage. Note however the occasional free power in the Panhandle last week.

Peak hourly load yesterday was 88,787 MW, 0.4% higher than yesterday’s forecast of 88,500 MW. Peak load was above the upper band of the trailing 5-year maximum load range. The daily minimum (morning) load was above the upper band of the 5-year minimum load range. (The ranges average over 5 years and one week either side.)

The average daily load yesterday was 72,920 MW. Friday’s estimate was for 72,260 MW. Record peak hourly load is currently 91,090 MW from 22-Jul-2026.

ERCOT’s peak load forecast for today is higher than yesterday’s actual at 89,500 MW. The forecast for tomorrow moves to 85,200 MW.

For weekly averages this week ending this coming Friday 04-Sep 15Z, the average power is estimated to be 71.82 GW, lower than last week’s record value. The verification for last week ending last Friday 28-Aug 15Z was 74.54 GW, the current record, and 74.14 GW the week before which was the prior weekly average record.

Weather

The Dallas area temperatures are expected to be much above the 20-year mean for the forecast’s duration—near or above historical records. Watch for a potential bust due to the pending Gulf storm. If clouds reach Northern Texas, the forecast could bust.

Houston and the Coast Zone temperatures have been generally above the 20-year mean. A small cooling is expected from here. Not the lower range the next few days associated with the Gulf storm.

Today, NOAA’s 7-Day QPF has rain coming from the Gulf and lasting about 5 days.

The storm causing the rain is currently named AL97 and has a 70% chance of cyclone formation soon.

Generation

Wind supply was higher yesterday. The forecast has some wild swings the next few days.

Read more

Peak hourly load yesterday was 90,169 MW, 1.6% lower than yesterday’s forecast of 88,800 MW—below the record of 91,090 MW on 22-Jul. Peak load was above the upper band of the trailing 5-year maximum load range. The daily minimum (morning) load was above the upper band of the 5-year minimum load range. (The ranges average over 5 years and one week either side.)

The average daily load yesterday was 73,720 MW. Yesterday’s estimate was for 73,050 MW. Record peak hourly load is currently 91,090 MW from 22-Jul-2026.

ERCOT’s peak load forecast for today is lower than yesterday’s actual at 87,700 MW. The forecast for tomorrow moves to 87,000 MW.

For weekly averages this week ending this coming Friday 28-Aug 15Z, the average power is estimated to be 74.56 GW, up 0.12 GW from yesterday’s estimate and higher than last week’s record value and above the current weekly average record. The verification for last week ending last Friday 21-Aug 15Z was 74.14 GW, the current record, and 72.44 GW the week before which was the prior weekly average record.

Weather

The Dallas area temperatures are expected to be much above the 20-year mean for the forecast’s duration—near or above historical records.

Houston and the Coast Zone temperatures have been generally above the 20-year mean and at or above 100F. A small cooling is expected from here.

Today, NOAA’s 7-Day QPF has rain spread across the forecast, but mainly today, in SE Texas.

Generation

Wind supply was higher yesterday but looks like a double bottom today before a rise tomorrow and next week.

Read more

Peak hourly load yesterday was 90,213 MW, 0.4% lower than yesterday’s forecast of 90,600 MW—below the record. Peak load was above the upper band of the trailing 5-year maximum load range. The daily minimum (morning) load was above the upper band of the 5-year minimum load range. (The ranges average over 5 years and one week either side.)

The average daily load yesterday was 73,870 MW. Yesterday’s estimate was for 74,720 MW. Record peak hourly load is currently 91,090 MW from 22-Jul-2026. Despite the high temperatures, the past week has stayed under this peak.

ERCOT’s peak load forecast for today is higher than yesterday’s actual at 88,800 MW. The forecast for tomorrow moves to 87,000 MW. Could the year’s high be in?

For weekly averages this week ending this coming Friday 28-Aug 15Z, the average power is estimated to be 74.44 GW, up 0.12 GW from yesterday’s estimate and higher than last week’s record value and above the current weekly average record. The verification for last week ending last Friday 21-Aug 15Z was 74.14 GW, the current record, and 72.44 GW the week before which was the prior weekly average record.

Weather

The Dallas area temperatures are expected to be much above the 20-year mean for the forecast’s duration—near or above historical records. Temperatures look high but continue lower than the peak from here.

Houston and the Coast Zone temperatures have been generally above the 20-year mean and at or above 100F. A small cooling is expected from here. Still hot.

Today, NOAA’s 7-Day QPF has some rain in today’s forecast spread across the forecast, mainly today.

Generation

Wind supply was much lower yesterday and will be today too. The supply builds up again starting Saturday.

Read more

Peak hourly load yesterday was 89.744 MW, 0.8% lower than yesterday’s forecast of 90,500 MW. Peak load was above the upper band of the trailing 5-year maximum load range. The daily minimum (morning) load was above the upper band of the 5-year minimum load range. (The ranges average over 5 years and one week either side.)

The average daily load yesterday was 74,270 MW. Yesterday’s estimate was for 75,740 MW. Record peak hourly load is currently 91,090 MW from 22-Jul-2026. Despite the high temperatures, the past week has stayed under this peak.

ERCOT’s peak load forecast for today is higher than yesterday’s actual at 90,600 MW. The forecast for tomorrow moves to 90,000 MW.

For weekly averages this week ending this coming Friday 28-Aug 15Z, the average power is estimated to be 74.32 GW, down 0.20 GW from yesterday’s estimate and higher than last week’s record value and above the current weekly average record. The verification for last week ending last Friday 21-Aug 15Z was 74.14 GW, the current record, and 72.44 GW the week before which was the weekly average record.

Weather

The Dallas area temperatures are expected to be much above the 20-year mean for the forecast’s duration—near or above historical records. DFW peaked at 101F yesterday, much lower than the forecast yesterday. Temperatures look high but continue lower than the peak from here.

Houston and the Coast Zone temperatures are generally above the 20-year mean and at or above 100F the past few days (including 100F yesterday). A small cooling is expected from here.

Today, NOAA’s 7-Day QPF has some rain in today’s forecast spread across the forecast, mainly today and tomorrow.

Generation

Wind supply continues with the large diurnal swing today with supply plummeting tomorrow but recovering later in the forecast.

Read more

Peak hourly load yesterday was 90,753 MW, 0.7% lower than yesterday’s forecast of 91,400 MW. Peak load was above the upper band of the trailing 5-year maximum load range. The daily minimum (morning) load was above the upper band of the 5-year minimum load range. (The ranges average over 5 years and one week either side.)

The average daily load yesterday was 76,190 MW. Yesterday’s estimate was for 76,160 MW. Record peak hourly load is currently 91,090 MW from 22-Jul-2026. Despite the high temperatures, the past week has stayed under this peak.

ERCOT’s peak load forecast for today is higher than yesterday at 90,500 MW. The forecast for tomorrow moves to 89,000 MW. It appears ERCOT is past its summer peak.

For weekly averages this week ending this coming Friday 28-Aug 15Z, the average power is estimated to be 74.52 GW, up 0.07 GW from yesterday’s estimate and higher than last week’s record value and above the current weekly average record. The verification for last week ending last Friday 21-Aug 15Z was 74.14 GW, the current record, and 72.44 GW the week before which was the weekly average record.

Weather

The Dallas area temperatures are expected to be much above the 20-year mean for the forecast’s duration—near or above historical records. DFW peaked at 109F yesterday, a new record. Temperatures look high but lower from here.

Houston and the Coast Zone temperatures are generally above the 20-year mean and over 100 the past days, continuing for a couple more.

Today, NOAA’s 7-Day QPF has some rain in today’s forecast spread across the forecast but mainly tomorrow and Thursday with the SE portion after that.

Generation

Wind supply continues with the large diurnal swing today with supply plummeting tomorrow but recovering later in the forecast.

Read more

Weekly averaged ERCOT load made a new record last week and will likely make another on this week.

Here is the load/dispatch table.

Load and Load Forecast

Peak hourly load yesterday was 90,411 MW, 1.5% lower than yesterday’s forecast of 91,700 MW. Peak load was above the upper band of the trailing 5-year maximum load range. The daily minimum (morning) load was above the upper band of the 5-year minimum load range. (The ranges average over 5 years and one week either side.)

The average daily load yesterday was 76,130 MW. Friday’s estimate was for 76,190 MW. Record peak hourly load is currently 91,090 MW from 22-Jul-2026. Despite the high temperatures, the past week has stayed under this peak. That could change today.

ERCOT’s peak load forecast for today is higher than yesterday at 92,400 MW. The forecast for tomorrow moves to 91,100 MW. Possible new load record today, but so far, the forecasts have been coming up shy.

For weekly averages this week ending this coming Friday 28-Aug 15Z, the average power is estimated to be 74.45 GW, higher than last week’s record value and above the current weekly average record. The verification for last week ending last Friday 21-Aug 15Z was 74.14 GW, the new record, and 72.44 GW the week before which was the weekly average record.

Weather

The Dallas area temperatures are expected to be much above the 20-year mean for the forecast’s duration—near or above historical records.

Houston and the Coast Zone temperatures are generally above the 20-year mean and over 100 the past days.

Today, NOAA’s 7-Day QPF has some rain in today’s forecast spread across the forecast.

Generation

Wind supply has large diurnal swings the next two days and then it is back to lower levels before potentially rising near the end of the forecast.

Read more

Load and Load Forecast

Peak hourly load yesterday was 90,353 MW, 1.4% lower than yesterday’s forecast of 91,800 MW. Peak load was above the upper band of the trailing 5-year maximum load range. The daily minimum (morning) load was above the upper band of the 5-year minimum load range. (The ranges average over 5 years and one week either side.)

The average daily load yesterday was 76,130 MW. Yesterday’s estimate was for 76,400 MW. Record peak hourly load is currently 91,090 MW from 22-Jul-2026.

ERCOT’s peak load forecast for today is higher than yesterday at 91,900 MW. The forecast for tomorrow moves to 91,500 MW. Possible new records today and tomorrow, ut so far, the forecasts have been coming up shy.

For weekly averages this week ending this morning Friday 21-Aug 15Z, the average power is estimated to be 74.11 GW, down 0.05 GW from yesterday’s estimate and higher than last week’s value and above the current weekly average record. The verification for last week ending last Friday 14-Aug 15Z was 72.44 GW, and 72.89 GW the week before which is the current weekly average record.

Weather

The Dallas area temperatures are expected to be much above the 20-year mean for the forecast’s duration. Still.

Houston and the Coast Zone temperatures are generally above the 20-year mean.

Today, NOAA’s 7-Day QPF has a little more rain in today’s forecast, most of it early.

Generation

Wind supply has large diurnal swings the next few days.

Read more

Load and Load Forecast

Peak hourly load yesterday was 89,725 MW, 1.4% lower than yesterday’s forecast of 921000 MW. Peak load was above the upper band of the trailing 5-year maximum load range. The daily minimum (morning) load was above the upper band of the 5-year minimum load range. (The ranges average over 5 years and one week either side.)

The average daily load yesterday was 75,180 MW. Yesterday’s estimate was for 75,820 MW. Record peak hourly load is currently 91,090 MW from 22-Jul-2026.

ERCOT’s peak load forecast for today is higher than yesterday at 91,700 MW. The forecast for tomorrow moves to 92,700 MW. Possible new records today and tomorrow.

For weekly averages this week ending this coming Friday 21-Aug 15Z, the average power is estimated to be 74.16 GW, down 0.14 GW from yesterday’s estimate and higher than last week’s value and above the current weekly averaged record. The verification for last week ending last Friday 14-Aug 15Z was 72.44 GW, and 72.89 GW the week before which is the current weekly average record.

Weather

The Dallas area temperatures are expected to be much above the 20-year mean for the forecast’s duration.

Houston and the Coast Zone temperatures are generally above the 20-year mean.

Today, NOAA’s 7-Day QPF is relatively dry with the edges of the region getting relatively isolated rain. There is a little more of this rain in today’s forecast.

Generation

Wind supply has large diurnal swings the next few days.

Read more

Load and Load Forecast

Peak hourly load yesterday was 89,580 MW, 1.4% lower than yesterday’s forecast of 90,800 MW. Peak load was above the upper band of the trailing 5-year maximum load range. The daily minimum (morning) load was above the upper band of the 5-year minimum load range. (The ranges average over 5 years and one week either side.)

The average daily load yesterday was 75,360 MW. Yesterday’s estimate was for 75,550 MW. Record peak hourly load is currently 91,090 MW from 22-Jul-2026.

ERCOT’s peak load forecast for today is higher than yesterday at 91,000 MW. The forecast for tomorrow moves to 92,100 MW. Loads are expected to beat the current record on Friday with a value of 926200 MW.

For weekly averages this week ending this coming Friday 21-Aug 15Z, the average power is estimated to be 74.30 GW, down 0.08 GW from yesterday’s estimate and higher than last week’s value and above the current weekly averaged record. The verification for last week ending last Friday 14-Aug 15Z was 72.44 GW, and 72.89 GW the week before which is the current weekly average record.

Weather

The Dallas area temperatures are expected to be much above the 20-year mean for the forecast’s duration.

Houston and the Coast Zone temperatures are generally above the 20-year mean.

Today, NOAA’s 7-Day QPF is relatively dry with the edges of the region getting relatively isolated rain. There is a little more of this rain in today’s forecast.

Generation

Wind supply has large diurnal swings the next few days.

Read more

Load and Load Forecast

Peak hourly load yesterday was 889,128 MW, 1.4% lower than yesterday’s forecast of 90,400 MW. Peak load was above the upper band of the trailing 5-year maximum load range. The daily minimum (morning) load was above the upper band of the 5-year minimum load range. (The ranges average over 5 years and one week either side.)

The average daily load yesterday was 74,220 MW. Yesterday’s estimate was for 74,620 MW. Record peak hourly load is currently 91,090 MW from 22-Jul-2026.

ERCOT’s peak load forecast for today is higher than yesterday at 90,800 MW. The forecast for tomorrow moves to 91,400 MW. Loads are expected to beat the current record on Thursday with a value of 92,200 MW.

For weekly averages this week ending this coming Friday 21-Aug 15Z, the average power is estimated to be 74.38 GW, up 0.06 GW from yesterday’s estimate and higher than last week’s value and above the current weekly averaged record. The verification for last week ending last Friday 14-Aug 15Z was 72.44 GW, and 72.89 GW the week before which is the current weekly average record.

Weather

The Dallas area temperatures are expected to be above the 20-year mean for the forecast’s duration.

Houston and the Coast Zone temperatures are generally are now above the 20-year mean and look very hot.

Today, NOAA’s 7-Day QPF is relatively dry with the edges of the region getting relatively isolated rain.

Generation

Wind supply has moved to a lower level but the overnight values are still very high providing for good storage plays.

Read more

This week’s system average power load expectation is 74.32 GW (ending Friday 21-Aug at 15 UT) compared to 72.44 GW last week and which had an expectation from last week of 72.62 GW. The current weekly average load record is 72.44 GW from last week and is likely to be beaten this week.

Generation

The weekly table containing weekly average power and generation is here. The net storage numbers which are currently included in the “Other” category. This table includes information through this morning.

Last week coal dispatch came in at 8.54 GW versus our estimate of 8.04 GW. This week the expectation is similar at 8.61 GW, historically in the lower part of the distribution.

This week, our estimate for natural gas fueled power generation is 32.41 GW (ending 21-Aug). Natural gas power generation last week was 28.95 GW with expectation this time last week of 28.30 GW. Gas generation is in the middle portion of the 5-year band for this week.

Nuclear generation was 4.95 GW last week. Current projection for this week is 4.95 GW.

Wind production last week was 16.91 GW (ending 14-Aug 15 UT). Last week’s expectation was 16.94 GW. This week, the expectation is lower at 13.65 GW (ending 21-Aug 15 UT)—near the upper 5-year band.

Solar production over a weekly average was 13.09 GW last week (ending 14-Aug 15UT), under last week’s expectation of 13.43 GW. The 24-hour averaged solar electric production is estimated to be 14.06 GW for the current week. Current record is from 31-Jul-2026 at 14.50 GW.

Last week we had a hiccup in the data feed. This plot is from the week before. Storage is still very strong.

Load Growth

Last week, the load was 5.8% above last year. With a (linear) temperature (degree-day) adjustment, the y-o-y growth was 4.0% versus last week’s estimate of 2.8%. Averaged over 8 weeks, the adjusted growth is estimated at 4.5% (vs. 4.6% estimate last week).

Here are the y-o-y growth values for each Weather Zone.

Note that the North and Far West regions are no longer growing. The West Zone, the zone with the most growth over the past year, is expected to slow with the new moratorium on data centers. Here is the plot for the North Zone.

Real-Time Prices

The Real-Time prices were more active last week compared to the week before. High evening prices have been good for storage.

Load and Load Forecast

Peak hourly load yesterday was 88,018 MW, 1.9% lower than yesterday’s forecast of 89,700 MW. Peak load was above the upper band of the trailing 5-year maximum load range. The daily minimum (morning) load was above the upper band of the 5-year minimum load range. (The ranges average over 5 years and one week either side.)

The average daily load yesterday was 71,910 MW. Thursday’s estimate was for 72,760 MW. Record peak hourly load is currently 91,090 MW from 22-Jul-2026.

ERCOT’s peak load forecast for today is higher than yesterday at 90,400 MW. The forecast for tomorrow moves to 90,900 MW. Loads are expected to beat the current average on Wednesday and Thursday with values of 91,200 MW and 92,000 MW.

For weekly averages this week ending this coming Friday 21-Aug 15Z, the average power is estimated to be 74.32 GW, higher than last week’s value and above the current weekly averaged record. The verification for last week ending last Friday 14-Aug 15Z was 72.44 GW, and 72.89 GW the week before which is the current weekly average record.

Weather

The Dallas area temperatures are expected to be above the 20-year mean for the forecast’s duration.

Houston and the Coast Zone temperatures are generally are now above the 20-year mean and look very hot.

Today, NOAA’s 7-Day QPF is relatively dry with the edges of the region getting relatively isolated rain.

Generation

Wind supply has moved to a lower level but with a wicked daily swing.

Read more

Load and Load Forecast

Peak hourly load yesterday was 88,143 MW, 1.2% lower than yesterday’s forecast of 89,300 MW. Peak load was above the upper band of the trailing 5-year maximum load range. The daily minimum (morning) load was above the upper band of the 5-year minimum load range. (The ranges average over 5 years and one week either side.)

The average daily load yesterday was 75,420 MW. Yesterday’s estimate was for 75,220 MW. Record peak hourly load is currently 91,090 MW from 22-Jul-2026.

ERCOT’s peak load forecast for today is similar to yesterday at 89,300 MW. The forecast for tomorrow relaxes to 87,700 MW. Loads are expected to stay below the current record from last month, although the current forecast puts the peak hourly load at 90,600 MW on 17-Aug.

For weekly averages this week ending this coming Friday 14-Aug 15Z, the average power is estimated to be 72.47 GW, up 0.08 GW from yesterday’s estimate but still higher than last week’s value but again above weekly averaged record. The verification for last week ending last Friday 07-Aug 15Z was 71.89 GW and 72.19 GW the week before which is the current weekly average record.

Weather

The Dallas area temperatures are expected to be above the 20-year mean for the forecast’s duration.

Houston and the Coast Zone temperatures are generally are now above the 20-year mean and look very hot.

Today, NOAA’s 7-Day QPF is relatively dry with the edges of the region getting relatively isolated rain.

Generation

Wind supply has moved to a very high level.

Read more

Load and Load Forecast

Peak hourly load yesterday was 86,899 MW, even with yesterday’s forecast of 86,900 MW. Peak load was above the upper band of the trailing 5-year maximum load range. The daily minimum (morning) load was above the upper band of the 5-year minimum load range. (The ranges average over 5 years and one week either side.)

The average daily load yesterday was 73,910 MW. Yesterday’s estimate was for 72,830 MW. Record peak hourly load is currently 91,090 MW from 22-Jul-2026.

ERCOT’s peak load forecast for today is higher than yesterday at 89,300 MW. The forecast for tomorrow continues higher to 88,800 MW. Loads are expected to stay below the current record from last month.

For weekly averages this week ending this coming Friday 14-Aug 15Z, the average power is estimated to be 72.39 GW, up 0.44 GW from yesterday’s estimate but still higher than last week’s value but again above weekly averaged record. The verification for last week ending last Friday 07-Aug 15Z was 71.89 GW and 72.19 GW the week before which is the current weekly average record.

Weather

The Dallas area temperatures are expected to be above the 20-year mean this week.

Houston and the Coast Zone temperatures are generally just below the 20-year mean for the next couple of days.

Today, NOAA’s 7-Day QPF is relatively dry with the edges of the region getting relatively isolated rain.

Generation

Wind supply has moved to a very high level. Curtailments tend to start in this range.

Read more

Peak hourly load yesterday was 83,118 MW, 3.7% lower than yesterday’s forecast of 84,500 MW. Peak load was just below the upper band of the trailing 5-year maximum load range. The daily minimum (morning) load was above the upper band of the 5-year minimum load range. (The ranges average over 5 years and one week either side.)

The average daily load yesterday was 70,670 MW. Yesterday’s estimate was for 72,560 MW. Record peak hourly load is currently 91,090 MW from 22-Jul-2026.

ERCOT’s peak load forecast for today is higher than yesterday at 86,900 MW. The forecast for tomorrow continues higher to 88,400 MW. Loads are expected to stay below the current record from last month.

For weekly averages this week ending this coming Friday 14-Aug 15Z, the average power is estimated to be 71.95 GW, down a large 0.67 GW from yesterday’s estimate but still higher than last week’s value but also now below weekly averaged record. The verification for last week ending last Friday 07-Aug 15Z was 71.89 GW and 72.19 GW the week before which is the current weekly average record.

Weather

The Dallas area temperatures are near and above the 20-year mean this week.

Houston and the Coast Zone temperatures are generally just below the 20-year mean for the next couple of days with some precipitation expected.

Today, NOAA’s 7-Day QPF is relatively dry with the edges of the region getting relatively isolated rain.

Generation

Wind supply has moved to a very high level. Curtailments tend to start in this range.

Read more

This week’s system average power load expectation is 72.62 GW (ending Friday 14-Aug at 15 UT) compared to 71.89 GW last week and which had an expectation from last week of 72.65 GW. The current weekly average load record is 72.19 from 31-Jul-2026 and is likely to be beaten this week.

Generation

The weekly table containing weekly average power and generation is here. The net storage numbers which are currently included in the “Other” category. This table includes information through this morning.

Last week coal dispatch came in at 9.09 GW versus our estimate of 8.72 GW. This week the expectation is similar at 8.04 GW, historically in the lower part of the distribution.

This week, our estimate for natural gas fueled power generation is 28.30 GW (ending 14-Aug). Natural gas power generation last week was 31.94 GW with expectation this time last week of 32.18 GW. Gas generation is in the middle portion of the 5-year band for this week.

Nuclear generation was 4.96 GW last week. Current projection for this week is 4.93 GW.

Wind production last week was 12.22 GW (ending 07-Aug 15 UT). Last week’s expectation was 11.98 GW. This week, the expectation is higher at 16.94 GW (ending 14-Aug 15 UT)—just above the upper 5-year band.

Solar production over a weekly average was 13.82 GW last week (ending 07-Aug 15UT), under last week’s expectation of 14.13 GW. The 24-hour averaged solar electric production is estimated to be 13.43 GW for the current week. Current record is from 31-Jul-2026 at 14.50 GW.

Last week has had high storage dispatch (and is likely a weekly record). With the high loads and high solar, this should continue.

Load Growth

Last week, the load was 8.7% above last year. With a (linear) temperature (degree-day) adjustment, the y-o-y growth was 2.8% versus last week’s estimate of 5.6%. Averaged over 8 weeks, the adjusted growth is estimated at 4.6% (vs. 4.7% estimate last week).

Here are the y-o-y growth values for each Weather Zone.

Note that the North and Far West regions are no longer growing. The West Zone, the zone with the most growth over the past year, is expected to slow with the new moratorium on data centers.

Real-Time Prices

The Real-Time prices were more active last week compared to the week before. The solar-storage play has been in full force. This week, with more wind, maybe not as much over the next few days.