Greetings all,

The latest issue of the Indian Public Policy Review (IPPR) is a special edition on Indian perspectives on China policy. It brings together five contributions: an analysis of China’s state-directed transformation of higher education and based on it derives a policy agenda for India, a study of India’s economic and strategic entanglement with China, a political economy account of informal trade at the Nathu La Pass border, an assessment of China’s 2023–25 export controls on gallium and germanium, and a review essay tracing how India’s China strategy has evolved from strategic patience to ground-level prescriptions for its practical implementation.

You can read the entire issue here.

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

1. Engineering Excellence: China’s State-Directed Transformation of Higher Education and Its Implications for Emerging Economies

Author(s): Konthoujam Sarda & Ajit Ranade

China’s emergence as a global leader in higher education and scientific research is the product of deliberate, state-engineered policies pursued across successive administrations. The authors document the scale, pace, and strategic logic of this transformation. They identify the concentration paradox: that elite targeting with fiscal restraint can outperform the universal-expansion model. Further, they argue that India’s technology-research gap is one of ‘breadth without depth’. Drawing on China’s experience, they propose a policy agenda for India, adapted to the constraints and opportunities of democratic governance.

2. India’s China Challenge: Exploring Possibility Amid Paradox

Author(s): Ajay Kumar Mishra & Shraddha Rishi

India’s dilemma with China is characterised by increased bilateral trade, border disputes, and geostrategic rivalries. The paper argues that India should manage this complex relationship with China through strategic autonomy, multi-alignment, and defensive diplomacy. The authors propose diversifying supply chains, expanding geoeconomic partnerships, and adopting flexible diplomacy to reduce dependence on China while sustaining economic growth.

3. Nathu La Pass Border Trade: Informal Economies, State Restrictions, and the Case for Spontaneous Order for India and China

Author: Jaimine Vaishnav

The formal border trade through the historic Nathu La Pass remains negligible relative to its projected potential. This paper examines the political economy of Nathu La border trade. It identifies that excessive regulatory restrictions, including outdated commodity lists, seasonal closures, and bureaucratic licensing requirements, have depressed formal trade volumes and encouraged informal trading networks. Meaningful trade expansion requires regulatory reform calibrated to security realities.

4. Lessons from China’s Weaponisation of Critical Minerals: A Case Study of Gallium and Germanium

Author(s): Amit Kumar & Pranay Kotasthane

China’s weaponisation of its dominance in the production of gallium and germanium between 2023 and 2025 failed to achieve sustained leverage over the United States. Beijing’s introduced export controls. But the US demonstrated remarkable resilience, bolstered by rapid substitutability, supply chain diversification, and even domestic capability building.

5. Beyond Strategic Patience

An assessment of how India’s thinking on China has evolved since the 2020 border crisis.

Author: Srinivas Yanamandra

This article focuses on two works published roughly five years apart: Rising to the China Challenge: Winning through Strategic Patience and Economic Growth (2021), by Bambawale et al., and Taming the Dragon: A Manifesto for a New Modus Vivendi with China (2026), edited by Kewalramani. While the former frames the problem and sets the strategic direction, the latter tests and refines that direction against evolving realities.

We invite articles for publication in future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal and on LinkedIn.

We look forward to your contributions.

Anupam Manur,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Professor, Takshashila Institution
📧: editor@ippr.in

Greetings all,

The latest issue of the Indian Public Policy Review (IPPR) brings together five wide-ranging contributions: a policy framework for biotechnology's role in military resilience, a theoretical treatment of accountability in digital public infrastructures, an exploration of how Doughnut Economics can strengthen Kerala's decentralisation experiment, an empirical study of inequality within India's middle-expenditure group, and a book review of Apple's strategic entanglement with China.

You can read the entire issue here.

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

1. Biotechnology and Military Resilience: Operational Implications and Policy Priorities for India

Author: Shambhavi Naik

The author argues that biotechnology's most consequential near-term contribution to national security lies in resilience-building rather than offensive use. Examining emerging biotechnologies across three levels of operations - individual soldier performance, unit-level resilience, and theatre-level preparedness - the paper argues how biotechnologies can improve force health outcomes, accelerate recovery, reduce logistical dependence, and enhance early warning against environmental and biological threats. It also proposes an analytical framework based on technology readiness, military adoptability, and strategic impact to help prioritise monitoring, investment, and transition.

2. Governing Without Guarantees: Complexity, Digital Infrastructure, and Institutional Responsibility

Author: Bibhu Prasad Mohapatra

This paper develops the concept of Governance Without Guarantees to describe policy environments in which institutional action unfolds without stable causal expectations, while continuing to generate consequences that demand accountability over time. The article introduces Responsibility Retention Capacity as a diagnostic framework for analysing whether governance arrangements keep responsibility traceable, contestable, and revisable over time.

3. Integrating Doughnut Economics into People's Planning: A Sustainable Development Paradigm for Kerala and Beyond

Author: Jos Chathukulam

The paper examines how the principles of Doughnut Economics resonate with - and diverge from - the Kerala Model of Decentralisation. It argues how their synthesis could inform sustainable policy pathways for the future. With Kerala’s People’s Plan Campaign (PPC) completing around 30 years, the author diagnoses a loss of fervour for genuine decentralisation. The paper suggests ways to revive the campaign through the lens of a Doughnut Economics framework.

4. India's Middle-Expenditure Groups: Size and Inequality

Author(s): D.K. Srivastava, Muralikrishna Bharadwaj, Ragini Trehan & Tarrung Kapur

This paper measures inequality within India’s middle expenditure group (MEG) for rural and urban areas. It utilises per capita expenditure data for different expenditure groups from the NSSO 2011-12, 2022-23, and 2023-24 surveys. The authors find that urban inequality is higher than rural inequality in all three reference years, and both have fallen over time.

5. Interdependence and its Discontents

A Book Review of ‘Apple in China: The Capture of the World’s Greatest Company’ by Patrick McGee

Author: Bhumika Sevkani

This article reviews Patrick McGee’s account of how Apple gradually integrated its production processes in China, leaving it strategically captive amid escalating US–China geopolitical tensions. The review highlights the risks of geographically concentrated supply chains and also critiques the book for its limited attention to the Chinese policy choices that led to Apple’s ‘red supply chain’.

We invite articles for publication in future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal and on LinkedIn.

We look forward to your contributions.

Anupam Manur,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Professor, Takshashila Institution
📧: editor@ippr.in

Greetings all,

The latest issue of the Indian Public Policy Review (IPPR) brings together five wide-ranging sets of contributions: a policy paper on regulatory reform for sustainable consumption in the FMCG sector, an analysis of India’s long-run economic growth potential and the constraints on its path to faster economic and social progress, a geographical and epidemiological review of Delhi’s free-roaming dog crisis, commentary on broadening India’s ecological fiscal transfer framework and a book review of a new account of India’s post-independence economic journey.

You can read the entire issue here.

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

1. Facilitating Resource Efficiency through Regulatory Reform for Sustainable Consumption in the FMCG Sector

Author(s): Rijit Sengupta, K P Ananthapadmanabhan & Praseetha P Kumar

The authors explore how science-based innovations, supported by regulatory reform and consumer engagement, can improve material-use efficiency. Using the example of a soap bar, they illustrate how reducing Total Fatty Matter through alternative structurants optimises palm oil use without compromising its performance. The authors outline an integrated model for driving resource efficiency and sustainable consumption in India’s FMCG sector.

2. Skewed Employment Opportunities, Income Inequality and Demand-Constrained Economic Growth in India

Author: Umesh Bhagat & Hrushikesh Mallick

This study examines India’s long-run economic growth potential and the constraints on its path to faster economic and social progress. The authors argue that India needs to broaden its internal domestic market. They highlight that the job ladder is narrower at the top and wider at the bottom. India needs to widen the job ladder at the top and narrow it at the bottom. They suggest policy pathways for the same. Failing to address constraints can exacerbate macroeconomic instability.

3. Dog Menace in Delhi

Author(s): Satya Raj

The author examines the geography of the stray dog–human conflict in Delhi, focusing on dog-bite trends, rabies epidemiology, and governance responses, including the 2025 Supreme Court judgment on dog management. The study concludes that Delhi’s conflict is shaped by ecological and institutional factors, and that durable solutions require aligning public health priorities with legal and animal welfare frameworks.

4. Ecological Fiscal Transfer in India

Author: Pracheta Acharya

Ecological Fiscal Transfers (EFTs) are intergovernmental transfers designed to compensate for or incentivise environmental protection. India introduced EFTs during the 14th Finance Commission period. The author identifies structural limitations in their current design and proposes a broader framework incorporating additional ecological indicators.

5. Parenting the economy: The Story of India’s Economic Development

A book review of “A Sixth of Humanity: Independent India’s Development Odyssey” by Devesh Kapur & Arvind Subramaniam

Author: M S Sriram

The article reviews Devesh Kapur and Arvind Subramanian’s A Sixth of Humanity. The book portrays India’s post-independence development as shaped by a “precocious” democracy with ambitious goals but weak institutional foundations. It highlights their diagnosis of prolonged ruralisation, stunted industrialisation and early servicification, and assesses their claim that paternalistic centralisation, inefficient nationalisation and incomplete structural transformation produced islands of excellence amid broad underperformance.

We invite articles for publication in the future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal and on LinkedIn.

We look forward to your contributions.

Anupam Manur,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Professor, Takshashila Institution
📧: editor@ippr.in

Hello everyone,

Season’s greetings to all. The December issue of IPPR features an insightful analysis of the structural shifts in India’s household savings and their implications for public borrowing, an examination of NGO–state coordination for equitable rural energy access, an evaluation of regulatory impacts on microfinance institutions, a proposal for a more comprehensive planetary ledger - Earth Credits Framework, and a book review on China’s engineering-driven development approach.

You can read the entire issue here.

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

1. Household Savings in the Indian Economy

Author(s): Chakravarthi Rangarajan & Priya Benny

The authors examine the changes in the savings ratio over time in India, 1950-51 to 2022-23. They observe four major structural breaks in the household savings rate data. While household savings rose steadily for several decades, they declined significantly in the most recent period. This decline in the savings rate raises concerns, as reduced savings can constrain the availability of resources for investment. The authors argue that this trend is likely to affect the public sector’s borrowing programme and, consequently, the fiscal deficit.

2. Bottom-Up Meets Top-Down: How NGO–State Coordination Shapes Energy Access in India

Author: Aritra Chakrabarty

This study examines the extent of policy coordination between state and non-state actors in India’s policy landscape. Using Bindi International’s community solar program in Jharkhand, the assessment shows how misalignment in NGO–state coordination can impede equitable access to electricity services in rural communities. The author argues that national and state-level energy policies should institutionalise the role of NGOs as key stakeholders in policy agenda-setting.

3. Regulation and the Performance of Microfinance Institutions in India

Author(s): Muneer Babu Mancheri & Azad P

This study examines the regulatory status and performance of 183 Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) in India from 2004-05 to 2019-20. It finds that RBI-regulated MFIs demonstrate higher operational self-sufficiency and broader outreach, indicating improved operational sustainability and a greater ability to attract and retain borrowers. This study finds that regulatory frameworks were associated with smaller average loan sizes and constrained lending practices. They argue for a balanced regulatory approach for Indian MFIs that ensures consumer protection and ethical business practices without imposing excessive compliance costs detrimental to operational sustainability.

4. Commentary – Earth Credits: a science based framework for sustainable planetary policy beyond carbon

Author: Pawan K Dhar

This commentary proposes an Earth Credits Framework (ECF), a unified accounting system designed to quantify a project’s total planetary consumption across all nine planetary boundaries, extending beyond traditional carbon-only metrics. ECF can offer governments, funders, and agencies a reliable compass for investing in truly sustainable outcomes.

5. On China’s Engineering Mindset

A book review of “Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future” by Dan Wang

Author: Shobhankita Reddy

The book compares China’s engineer state with America’s lawyerly state. While China prioritises outcomes through technocratic leadership, the United States focuses on legal processes. China’s growth model relies on its ability to mobilise vast resources, but this often comes with significant inefficiencies, waste, and human costs. In contrast, institutional checks slow down American progress, yet they help prevent the severe policy mistakes that China has made in the past.

We invite articles for publication in the future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews  across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal and on LinkedIn.

We look forward to your contributions.

Anupam Manur,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Professor, Takshashila Institution
📧: editor@ippr.in

Hello everyone,

Festive greetings to everyone. The October issue of IPPR has brilliant papers on the performance of India’s inflation targeting regime, the finance requirements for India to decarbonise, the performance and way forward for India’s ICDS-Anganwadi framework, the difficulties of disposing assets in hospitals and a book review about China’s geopolitical revival.

You can read the entire issue here.

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

1. The Journey of Inflation Targeting in India

Author(s): Radhika Pandey, Ila Patnaik & Rajeswari Sengupta

It has been eight years since India adopted the inflation targeting (IT) framework for its monetary policy. The paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the IT regime, addressing several critical aspects. It evaluates the performance of inflation over this period, and review the conduct of monetary policy during and after the Covid- 19 pandemic. Finally, it identifies key challenges that persist particularly in context of the Impossible Trilemma and highlight issues that may require further examination in order to improve the effectiveness of the IT framework in the future.

2. India’s Climate Finance Requirements: An Assessment

Author(s): Janak Raj & Rakesh Mohan

This study assesses India’s climate finance requirement from 2022-2030 to decarbonise its four major carbon-emitting sectors—cement, steel, power, and road transport. Climate finance requirement has been estimated at US$467 billion for 2022-2030 or 1.3 per cent of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) annually. The estimated investment in the four sectors will reduce the use of 291 million tonnes of coal and 72 billion litres of petrol and diesel, mitigating 6.9 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions (excluding road transport).

3. Nurturing Young: Fifty Years of Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) in India

Author(s): Jos Chathukulam & Manasi Joseph

This paper critically examines the strengths, challenges, weaknesses, and opportunities of ICDS over the last fifty years. It also offers insights into strategies aimed at fortifying its future direction, through the lens of 2020 National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 and early childhood care and education (ECCE). To enhance its rankings in global indices and to eradicate all forms of malnutrition, India must prioritize the strengthening of the ICDS-Anganwadi framework

4. Condemnation of Assets in Indian Government Hospitals

A Narrative Review of General Financial Rules (GFR) 2017 Mandates, Institutional Policies, and Modern Disposal Platforms

Author(s): Narinder Kumar, Ananth Naveen Kumar Reddy, Shalini Sharma & Vipin Koushal

Efficient disposal of surplus, obsolete, and unserviceable assets is a critical, yet often overlooked, component of effective administration. In Indian government healthcare institutions, the accumulation of dysfunctional equipment and expired consumables poses significant financial, operational, and safety challenges.

5. Beyond the “Century of Humiliation”

A book review of “China Resurrected: A Modern Geopolitical History” by Frans-Paul van der Putten.

Author: Bahram Kalviri

The book’s central argument is that modern China’s story is a continuous, long-term effort to reclaim sovereignty after the “century of humiliation.” While the book effectively connects historical defeats to present-day nationalism, the review notes that its “straight line” narrative can oversimplify complex events, sometimes presenting history as an inevitable march toward “resurrection” rather than a messy, uncertain process.

We invite articles for publication in the future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews  across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal and on LinkedIn.

We look forward to your contributions.

Anupam Manur,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Professor, Takshashila Institution
📧: editor@ippr.in

Greetings all,

The Aug issue of IPPR has some fascinating papers on how major urban centres in India have grown post-pandemic, using Institutional Economics to improve FPOs, making structural reforms to legal services in India to improve access to justice, designing for trust amidst information overload and the rise of Huawei within China’s technology ambitions!

You can read the entire issue here.

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

1. Tales of a few cities

Author(s): Bibek Debroy & Devi Prasad Misra

The study analyses suburban travel patterns on the Indian Railways network as an indicator of spatial urban expansion. The research integrates geospatial earth observation data with housing property prices to explore relationships between population dispersion and real estate values. Key findings show suburban travel rebounded post-COVID lockdowns but remains below pre-pandemic levels, potentially due to changed transport preferences or emerging counter-magnets. The analysis examines passenger arrival trends from top origin districts for each metropolitan city to understand urban growth patterns and LULC changes in suburban areas. The methodology demonstrates how high-frequency railway passenger data can effectively track urban spatial expansion when combined with geospatial and property market data.

2. Farmer Producer Organisations and Institutional Economics

Author(s): A.M. Jose & Jos Chathukulam

This paper develops a seven-cluster framework for assessing Farmer Producer Organisations using institutional economics. Blending classic and heterodox traditions, it offers actionable insights for resilient, inclusive rural transformation. Their Kerala fieldwork highlights both strengths and persistent barriers in FPO governance and rural transformation.

3. Reforming the Indian Bar: The limits of technological solutions

Author(s): Varsha Aithala & Karthik Suresh

This paper interrogates the structural and regulatory challenges limiting access to justice. In this paper, the authors observe that in the absence of regulatory reform, the Indian state and private players are attempting to use technology to address this capacity problem. However, technological tools can only partially address deep-seated incentive and governance issues within India's legal profession.

4. Designing for Trust Amidst Information Chaos

Author(s): Ishoo Ratna Srivastav

The commentary explores how trust is eroding in today’s information-rich world and why thoughtful institutional design is needed. Drawing on learnings from evolutionary sciences, game theory and market design; it discusses mechanisms that reward honesty and cooperation can help reduce chaos, build credibility, and strengthen societies for the long run.

5. Huawei - A Case Study in China's Tech Ambitions and Geopolitical Power Plays

Book Review of “House of Huawei: Inside the Secret World of China's Most Powerful Company” by Eva Dou

Author: Shobhankita Reddy & Arindam Goswami

This review of Eva Dou’s book, "House of Huawei: Inside the Secret World of China's Most Powerful Company", examines the Chinese tech company’s rise from being a Shenzen pilot project in the 1980s to being caught in today’s geopolitical quagmire. By situating the company against the backdrop of China's changing political economy, it highlights China's tech ambitions and increasing securitisation of technology amidst escalating US-China tensions.

We invite articles for publication in the future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews  across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal and on LinkedIn.

We look forward to your contributions.

Anupam Manur,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Professor, Takshashila Institution
📧: editor@ippr.in

Greetings all,

The May issue of IPPR has some exciting papers on misreporting and inconsistencies in capital expenditure undertaken by the union and states; vertical and horizontal disparities in spending on judiciary, factors that can drive the growth of the medical devices industry in India, opportunities for India to increase exports to the US and a book review on the developmental model followed by Nehru.

You can read the entire issue here.

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

1. Capital Spending in India: Bridging the Data Gaps

Author(s): Anoop Singh, Radha Malani & Shruti Gupta

This paper critically examines capital expenditure (capex) reporting practices in India. While the reported capex has risen significantly in recent years, a deeper examination reveals inconsistencies, data gaps, and misclassifications that undermine the accuracy, accountability, and effectiveness of these estimates. Significant portions of the reported capex are allocated to loans and advances to state governments, public sector enterprises, and debt repayment rather than direct asset creation. The paper compares India’s reporting practices with international standards, emphasising the need for accrual accounting, comprehensive reporting, and eliminating misclassification of capex.

2. Strengthening the Rule of Law: Role of the Finance Commission

Author(s): C.H. Rohith & Surya Prakash B.S.

This paper examines the budgeting process and the allocation of funds to the judiciary at the state and union level. It reveals both a vertical disparity (between the union and state governments) and horizontal disparities (across the states) in budgetary allocation towards the judiciary in India. The paper utilises several metrics (pending cases per lakh population, judicial expenditure per capita, expenditure per subordinate court, case burden per subordinate court, etc.) to understand the disparity of public funding of judiciary from various dimensions. The paper proposes reform measures to the Sixteenth Finance Commission to improve the budgeting for the judiciary, allocation of money to courts, and the utilisation of funds.

3. Medical Device Industry of India: Growth Dynamics and Key Challenges

Author(s): Shailender Kumar Hooda

This paper reviews the demand and supply side factors, including socio-economic, market-enabling, technological and policy instruments, that could drive the growth of the medical device industry. Despite there being several enabling factors for the sector’s growth, India primarily manufactures medical equipment within the low-tech segment, from consumable to implantable devices. This leaves domestic requirements unmet in other segments, pushing the country to import expensive equipment in the advanced technology segment. This drives up the cost of medical equipment, leading to higher diagnostic test fees for end-users, which in turn places a significant out-of-pocket financial payment burden on households for diagnostic services.

4. Trump’s Tariff War 2.0: Implications and Potential Opportunities

Author(s): M. Rahul & Sourashree Mukherjee

This article explores the ramifications and possible opportunities arising from the tariff war initiated by President Donald J. Trump during his second term in office. The implications of these tariffs on global economic stability, investor confidence, and commodity prices are examined, along with strategic retaliation by affected countries. The paper also highlights India's position in this evolving trade landscape, identifying sectors with high potential to boost exports to the US market. This paper suggests that India could benefit from redirecting trade flows and enhancing its role in global value chains through appropriate policies.

5. Tracing India's Economic Path: A Critical Assessment of Nehru's Legacy and Its Enduring Impact

Review article based on “The Nehru Development Model: History and Its Lasting Impact” by Arvind Panagariya.

Author: Narayan Ramachandran

This review examines Panagariya's comprehensive analysis of Nehru's economic philosophy and policies, praising the book's extensive use of archival sources to trace India's journey from liberal trade policies to state-controlled industrialization. The book's significant contribution to Indian economic history notwithstanding, Panagariya's tendency to place excessive blame on Nehru alone can be questioned, on account of India's persistent statist tendencies that reflect broader historical forces and the failure of successive leaders to chart a different course.

We invite articles for publication in the future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews  across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal.

We look forward to your contributions.

Dr. M Govinda Rao,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Member, Fourteenth Finance Commission
📧: editor@ippr.in

Greetings all,

The March issue of IPPR has some exciting papers on the trends and patterns in India’s domestic migration, fiscal loss in India’s energy transition, fiscal federalism and climate change, the ethics of exclusion from the public distribution system and a review article on diffusion of General Purpose Technology.

You can read the entire issue here.

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

1. 400 Million Dreams!

Author(s): Bibek Debroy & Devi Prasad Misra

This paper harnesses three high frequency and granular datasets – Indian Railway Unreserved Ticketing System (UTS) data on passenger volumes; mobile telephone roaming data from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI); and district level banking data, to provide near-real time insights into migration flows. Our findings indicate that overall domestic migration in India has slowed. Since Census 2011, the number of migrants has reduced by about 11.78%, to ~40 Crore and the migration rate (percentage of migrants in the population) reduced to 28.88%. We hypothesize that this is on account of improved conditions and opportunities at the places of origin. Further, spatial trends in migration appear to be in line with gravity models of migration, with short distance migration accounting for the largest share. We go on to identify popular destinations, major origin districts, and build dyads of popular migration routes.

2. Compensating for the Fiscal Loss in India’s Energy Transition

Author(s): Laveesh Bhandari, Rajat Verma & Dhruva Teja Nandipati

This study primarily explores the dynamics of tax revenues and the fiscal implications of India's transition. As fossil fuel consumption declines over time, government revenues generated from fossil fuels are also expected to decrease relative to GDP. The research delves into the institutional challenges related to enhancing existing tax systems, and considers the viability of implementing a carbon tax as an alternative revenue source to replace fossil fuel taxes. However, it also underscores the challenges associated with their implementation, including institutional barriers and political-economic complexities, particularly within India's fiscal-federal structure.

3. Fiscal Federalism and Climate Change: Building the Institutional Framework in India

Author(s): Anoop Singh

This paper examines India’s evolving climate change governance framework, emphasising the role of its federal structure in shaping national and subnational climate action. It critically assesses the current institutional landscape, identifying gaps in coordination and sectoral integration of climate action. India’s reliance on sector-specific laws and policies, coupled with the absence of overarching climate legislation, highlights the urgent need for a unified legal framework to mainstream climate considerations into governance. The paper proposes strategies to optimize institutional support, enhance financial mechanisms, and foster cross-sectoral coordination. It outlines a roadmap for strengthening India's climate governance, focusing on establishing national climate laws, integrating climate change into fiscal and policy planning, and improving coordination between central and state authorities.

4. Examining exclusions in the Public Distribution System

Author(s): O. Grace Ngullie

This study assesses policies through evidence-based research, centred on the implementation of the PDS in Nagaland, India. Exclusions primarily stem from the interplay of census and identity politics, coupled with a technological determinism largely influenced by centralized state control and surveillance. This often overshadows constitutional values and objectives in policy decisions, compromising the foundational ethical principles of policymaking. Policy formulation grounded in reliable population data, targeted inclusion initiatives, flexible identity verification, and dedicated support for the most vulnerable groups is essential for ensuring inclusivity. Empowering local institutions and community-led organizations, particularly self-help groups in the management of welfare programs, can significantly enhance inclusivity.

5. Diffusion, innovation and the tech-politics underlying power transitions

Review article based on Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition by Jeffrey Ding

Author: Lokendra Sharma & Arindam Goswami

In Technology and the Rise of Great Powers, Ding examines the historical industrial revolutions (from 1780s onwards) to argue that it was diffusion of general purpose technologies as opposed to advantage in leading sectors that decided the outcome of great power transitions. In this review article, Ding’s framework is applied to India for discerning the lessons it holds for rising powers amid the ongoing Fourth Industrial Revolution.

We invite articles for publication in the future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews  across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal.

We look forward to your contributions.

Dr. M Govinda Rao,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Member, Fourteenth Finance Commission
📧: editor@ippr.in

Greetings all,

The January issue of IPPR has some brilliant papers India's growth trajectory and what the growth in per capita income required to achieve developed country status; difference between planned and realised private investment, the evolution of India's healthcare policy framework, fiscal transfers and achieving SDGs and finally a book review of "AI snake oil".

You can read the entire issue here.

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

1. Quantitative Dimensions of Viksit Bharat

Author(s): C. Rangarajan & K.R. Shanmugam

This study uses appropriate quantitative procedures to determine the growth rates needed for India, as well as its states and union territories, to meet the goal of “developed country” status under various scenarios. The time taken to reach this status depends critically on the per capita income to be achieved. The results reveal that approximately 40% of states/union territories will fall short of this target. Generally, only if the target is set at the per capita income of a developed country as of 2023, is it possible to achieve that status. All other scenarios will demand a much higher growth rate.

2. Private Investment: Intentions versus Realization

Author(s): Renu Kohli & Kritima Bhapta

This note examines the growing mismatch between intended private capex and actual fixed assets creation, shedding a fresh light on the longstanding weakness of private investment in India. We examine a number of potential reasons, like the shift to alternate funding sources – external and internal - not captured in the data, and inflated expectations or over-optimism of private agents, who may subsequently be shedding or scaling back planned projects. We speculate if the planned-to-realized capex ratio or survey-based business expectations are accurate lead indicators as compared to, for example, bank credit, to identify which is a better gauge of demand.

3. Evolution of the Healthcare Policy Framework in India

Author(s): Janak Raj, Shauryavir Dalal & Aashi Gupta

This paper traces the history of the evolution of India's healthcare policy framework, focussing on its major objectives, challenges faced, and outcomes emerged. The key themes prevalent across most of these policies and specific initiatives included: (i) increasing public health spending and reducing out-of-pocket or catastrophic health spending; (ii) addressing rural-urban inequalities in healthcare; (iii) developing primary healthcare; and (iv) achieving universal health coverage. Though the country has made a good progress in healthcare facilities post-independence, overall health has remained a low priority, with public health spending at one per cent of GDP - much lower than many of its peers. The goal of universal health coverage (UHC) is nowhere in sight mainly because of inadequate public health spending.

4. Integrating Government Transfers and Grants with SDGs

Author(s): Anandajit Goswami , Preeti Singh & Anita Prasad

This commentary evaluates how various centrally sponsored programs are standing out in fulfilling SDGs particularly, sustainable goal 1, 2, 3, 5, 8 and 10. Further, states and union territories performance has been assessed by looking at sustainable index score that revealed disproportionate state-wise situation. Thus, the commentary comes up with the suggestive measures to achieve the targets of SDGs, and development outcomes particularly by shedding light on mechanism of vertical transfer along with creating competitive environment amongst the states, in order to align with SDG target achievements in the long run.

5. The Fine Print on AI: Debunking AI Myths

A Book Review of “AI Snake Oil” by Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor

Author: Adya Madhavan

AI has gone from a distant possibility in the realm of science fiction to a promising new technology in a short span of time. This has left much room for confusion about its capabilities, and there are many misconceptions and fears that are perpetuated today. Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor’s book ‘AI Snake Oil’ provides a comprehensive and easy to understand reality check, and the authors’ future-looking perspective makes it easy to understand the potential the technology could bring. Arguably, it is one of the best books on AI thus far-- bringing knowledge that is traditionally complex to those without a background in computer science in a straightforward manner, it sets itself apart from other books on the subject.

We invite articles for publication in the future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews  across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal.

We look forward to your contributions.

Dr. M Govinda Rao,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Member, Fourteenth Finance Commission
📧: editor@ippr.in

Hello,

The November issue of IPPR has fascinating papers on public finance and India’s fiscal architecture. These include an analysis of the existing data gaps that exist in accounting of India’s subsidy spending, fiscal transfers and states’ spending on healthcare, a new post-pandemic fiscal architecture that is based on debt, and public expenditure. Along with these, there is an excellent paper on how trade policy is not and cannot be gender neutral, but should be gender balancing, at the least.

You can read the entire issue here.

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

1. Subsidies in India: Bridging the Data Gaps

Author(s): Shruti Gupta, Radha Malani, Anoop Singh

Many forms of financing through special securities and extra-budgetary resources have been used to finance subsidy spending, making it difficult to comprehensively define and measure subsidy expenditure in the budget and other annual accounts. These issues relate to the existence of data gaps in India’s fiscal reporting and accounts, which are a critical area of concern due to the large financial implications of subsidy expenditures. This paper identifies how subsidy spending has been accounted in India and explains the resultant data gaps that render such fiscal data inconsistent and incomparable across levels of government. It then proposes steps in the way forward to improve their transparency.

2. Fiscal Transfers from the Union to States and Healthcare in India

Author(s): Janak Raj, Rahul Ranjan, Vrinda Gupra, Aakanksha Shrawan

The key focus of the study is to assess the role of fiscal transfers from the Union government compared to States’ own revenue in explaining their healthcare spending. The study found that both States’ own revenue and unconditional transfers impact their health spending. However, own revenue was more significant than unconditional fiscal transfers in explaining health spending by economically well-off states. In contrast, unconditional fiscal transfers were the sole factor for health spending by economically weaker states. Generally, States were substituting their non-National Health Mission (NHM) health spending with NHM health spending.

3. Reimagining India’s Fiscal Architecture

Author(s): Sajjid Z Chinoy, Toshi Jain & Divyanit Sood

Fiscal credibility in India has increased markedly in recent years underpinned by improved transparency (off-budget liabilities coming on budget), conservativeness (in the budgeting of revenues) and marksmanship (in the attainment of deficit targets). Yet, like around the world, India is left with higher public debt levels post-pandemic, and, despite ongoing fiscal consolidation, combined Debt/GDP again inched up last year. We therefore propose a new, post-pandemic fiscal architecture built on five pillars that is anchored in debt and is holistic (encompassing centre and states), dynamic (responsive to changing macro conditions and market signals), sustainable and conservative  --  so as to help create fiscal space to respond to future shocks.

4. No Such Thing as Gender-Neutral Trade Policy

Author(s): Pallavi Bajaj

Trade policy is not gender neutral. As a matter of fact, it cannot be. To counter the inherent disadvantages of social, institutional, and structural constructs, as well as access and capacity constraints specific to women, policy,  including trade policy, needs to actively and continuously neutralize these disadvantages, and create an ecosystem where men and women are on the same playing field in economic activity, and therefore, in trade. It needs to be gender-balancing, at the very least.  It needs to effectively address the inherent gender-specific limitations to access and capacity that women face in participating in trade.

5. Decoding the Trends and Composition of Public Expenditure in India:

A Book Review of “Public Expenditure in India: Policies and Development Outcomes” by Gayithri Karnam

Author: Jos Chathukulam

Public Expenditure in India: Policies and Development Outcomes by Gayithri Karnam, offers an empirical understanding of historical trends and composition of public expenditure in India at the central and the sub-national levels; the effectiveness of public expenditure control systems and accountability issues; the political economy of spending decisions; public expenditure reforms undertaken in India; and international best practices that can guide the course-correction process in India.

We invite articles for publication in the future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews  across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal.

We look forward to your contributions.

Dr. M Govinda Rao,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Member, Fourteenth Finance Commission
📧: editor@ippr.in

Hello,

The July-August issue of IPPR features a collection of papers addressing various pertinent topics. These include an analysis of the socioeconomic vulnerabilities faced by migrant labour, an exploration of the future collaboration between the US and India in the private space sector, and an examination of India's strategy for AI governance. Additionally, the issue discusses the role of technology in implementing the National Food Security Act (NFSA) of 2013 and outlines the trajectory of mobile manufacturing in India.

You can read the entire issue here.

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

1. Socioeconomic Vulnerabilities of Migrant Labour Households in Delhi

Author(s): Namita Mathur

This paper discusses the precarity of employment for vulnerable workers and the laws and policies meant for protecting the interests of migrants. The study finds that a majority of the workers in Delhi do not have any social security or legal protection of their jobs, and work under terrible conditions. While the social security system has been expanded to cover informal workers, migrant workers are still excluded, as the institutional structure of these schemes is creating problems in being accessible to migrants. The author argues that there is an urgent need to develop strategies that reduce the vulnerabilities of migrants in the cities and help alleviate their miseries. 

2. The Future of U.S.-India Private Sector Space Collaboration

Author(s): Jollice Boyd, Omar Husayni, Peter Jarka-Sellers, Aditi Mahesh, Sophia Salazar, Felix Spiekerkoetter

India and the United States have dramatically deepened their cooperation on space exploration and technology in recent years and codified their collaboration through bilateral and multilateral agreements, including the U.S.-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) and the Artemis Accords. Private companies are playing an increasingly prominent role in each country’s civilian, military, and commercial space ambitions. This paper examines the barriers and incentives for collaboration between the Indian and American private space sectors. This paper's recommendations aim to guide policymakers from both countries in bridging their respective private sectors to advance mutual objectives.

3. Decoding India’s AI Governance Strategy and its Implications for the U.S.-India Bilateral Relationship

Author(s): Sez Harmon, Morgan Wilsmann, Gandhar Joshi, Aldrin Ballesteros, Pip Baitinger

This paper reviews India’s available AI governance choices, as the country defines its regulatory model, and highlights their associated trade-offs. It also analyses these choices in the light of the government’s national priorities, as well as India’s perceived advantages and weaknesses in various industries that might utilise AI systems. Finally, it examines how India’s current approach to AI governance may impact the trajectory of U.S.-India technology cooperation. 

4. Augmenting Use of Technology in Implementation of NFSA-2013: Documenting Evidence From Assam 

Author(s): Dikumoni Hazarika, Rohil Oberoi

The paper argues that the augmentation of technology has the potential to increase the effectiveness, transparency, and accountability of the National Food Security Act (NFSA), 2013, implementation and address the issue of food security. The author suggests that ensuring the feasibility of Fair Price Shops, creating dashboards for data and reports for NFSA stakeholders, conducting social audits, and developing efficient monitoring and evaluation frameworks within the NFSA can greatly improve the efficiency of the Public Distribution System in Assam. 

5. Mobile manufacturing path for India: Lessons from other Asian countries

Author: Chidambaran Iyer

In this paper, the author infers a few policy lessons for India from the experiences of four Asian countries - South Korea, Taiwan, China and Vietnam - that have walked down this path. The paper argues that for India to attain its goal, increasing public investment in mobile technology research will help. The paper suggests that the government should incentivise local firms to establish linkages with mobile manufacturing multinational firms. To capture more value, domestic firms that manufacture mobiles need to focus on R&D, marketing and branding activities. 

We invite articles for publication in the future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews  across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal.

We look forward to your contributions.

Dr. M Govinda Rao,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Member, Fourteenth Finance Commission
📧: editor@ippr.in

Hello,

The May-June issue of IPPR contains papers on Chinese information operations, internet blocking and international human rights law, India's economic growth projections, economic growth and human development of states and China’s rise.

You can read the entire issue here.

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

1. Understanding the PRC’s Information Operations Against India

Author(s): Dhara P Shah

This paper examines how the People’s Republic of China (PRC) uses information as an instrument of strategic warfare, across military and non-military domains, in the pursuit of strategic advantage over India. Beijing’s ‘information operations’ encompass the creation, manipulation, or selective use of information to discredit New Delhi’s international profile, advance territorial claims, and show the PRC in a favourable light to domestic and international audiences. The PRC’s diplomatic missions, State/Party-owned & affiliated media organizations, and social media users play an important role in amplifying this pro-PRC narrative.

2. Internet blocking and shutdowns in India and international human rights law

Author(s): Pranesh Prakash

This paper examines the provision for Internet blocking and shutdowns in Indian law, and compares it with international human rights law (IHRL). It finds that IHRL potentially offers a useful lens through which to view these actions; that IHRL is widely accepted by the Indian state, including the judiciary; and that IHRL provides a useful complement to constitutional analysis. It also finds that the Indian laws and practices around Internet shutdowns and online content blocking fall short of IHRL in significant ways, including when it comes to the principles of legality, legitimate aims, necessity, proportionality, transparency, and remedies for violation of rights

3. India at 100 and the Significance of Top Six States

Author(s): K.R. Shanmugam & Mathew Koshy Odasseril

The findings suggest that India will achieve the US$ 7 trillion target by 2032-33 and the per capita income level of developed nation by 2046-47, assuming 4.5% inflation and 2% depreciation of exchange rate. Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Gujarat are expected to reach per capita income mark of developed nation by 2037-38, Maharashtra is expected to reach in 2040-41. West Bengal will reach this target by 2047-48, while Uttar Pradesh has to go a long way to reach this ambitious target.

4. Economic Growth and Human Development in India – Are States Converging?

Author(s): Janak Raj, Vrinda Gupta & Aakanksha Shrawan

This study focusses on three aspects of the association between human development and economic growth in India: (i) the pattern of the relationship between economic growth and human development in India at the national and state levels; (ii) whether economic growth was converging at the state level; and (iii) whether human development was converging at the state level.

5. China’s Rise: A New Cold War in the Making?

A Book Review of “The Fire of the Dragon: China’s New Cold War” by Ian Williams

Author: Anushka Saxena

This essay reviews the 2022 book by Ian Williams, 'The Fire of the Dragon', which explores the contours of "China's rise" and its external relations with both major powers like the US and India, and smaller regional nations such as Philippines and Taiwan. Further, the essay questions the notion that the current geopolitical order is a 'new Cold War', as proposed by Williams. By assessing China's quest for resources, the essay also highlights its critical position in global value chains, and its burgeoning ambitions in technology geopolitics. Finally, the essay discusses tensions in the India-China bilateral relationship, revolving around the border dispute between the two countries.

We invite articles for publication in the future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews  across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal.

We look forward to your contributions.

Dr. M Govinda Rao,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Member, Fourteenth Finance Commission
📧: editor@ippr.in

Hello,

The Mar-Apr issue of IPPR has been published and it has papers on South Asian economies' macro performance, debt sustainability of Indian states, India-Australia collaboration on UPI, internet shutdowns, and India's manufacturing story.

You can read the entire issue here.

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

1. Similarities yet Divergence in South Asian Macroeconomic Performance

Author(s): Ashima Goyal

Stylised business cycle facts for South Asia show the dominance of supply shocks, often amplified by macroeconomic policies and pro-cyclical current accounts. Interest and exchange rate volatility rose initially on liberalisation, but fell as markets deepened. A combination of excessive government/foreign borrowing and inadequate reserves made it difficult for smaller countries to withstand the multiple external shocks that began with the global pandemic. Domestic ability to smooth shocks and global safety nets are both essential. India benefitted from growing diversity, evolution to countercyclical macroeconomic policy better suited to structure and a good coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, with balance between demand stimulus and continuing supply-side reforms. Reserves and capital flow management policies helped insulate from global shocks. Intervention damped excess exchange rate volatility, reducing risk premiums.

2. Construction of a Composite Indicator for Debt Sustainability Analysis: A Case of Sub-nationals in India

Author(s): Purnendu Kumar, Rahul Thekkedath & Nanu Ram Meena

This study proposes a new framework for public debt sustainability analysis by constructing a composite indicator, that is, a debt sustainability index. We emphasise the need for an explicit conceptual framework for constructing a composite index and usefulness of multivariate statistical analysis prior to the aggregation of individual indicators. The proposed approach can be used to analyse the debt sustainability of state governments (sub-nationals) in India.

3. Financial Flows of the Blue Continent: A Case Study of Potential Pacific-India-Australia Collaboration

Author(s): Josiah Neal

This paper proposes a collaborative effort between India, Australia, Papua New Guinea, and Fiji to pilot a payments system using the infrastructure underlying India's Unified Payments Interface framework. This aims to catalyse the creation of an open, interoperable, and efficient regional payments system in the Pacific that enfranchises all stakeholders. Frank dialogue about the financial needs of Pasifika peoples and their countries is critical, and open-source protocols can allow for tailor-made, sovereign solutions without vendor lock-in. More broadly, this paper demonstrates India's potential to collaborate with Australia – and others – to create positive outcomes for low-income states.

4. Navigating Tensions and Stabilising Public Safety with Internet Shutdowns

Author(s): Ivy Dhar

Internet shutdowns have proliferated in the last few years in India owing to the government’s effort to control the spread of rumours and misinformation primarily in periods when there is a possibility of tension or social unrest. This paper examines how public emergency and public safety, which comprises the core of the law for implementing internet suspension, is not adequately defined and therefore, continues to be used indiscriminately. This article reviews the use of internet shutdown as a public safety measure.

5. India Cannot Afford to Ignore Manufacturing

Review article based on “Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India’s Economic Future” by Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba

Author: Sridhar Krishna

Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba are clear that “Acche Din” are not here yet and the direction the NDA government is taking will not get India to the promised land soon. They recommend a strong push for services as against manufacturing, increased spending on education and healthcare, and devolution of power to local governments. They question the logic behind large subsidies to promote manufacturing when the jobs created in this manner are so few. 

We invite articles for publication in the future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews  across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal.

We look forward to your contributions.

Dr. M Govinda Rao,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Member, Fourteenth Finance Commission
📧: editor@ippr.in

Hello,

The Jan-Feb issue of IPPR has been published and it has papers on Kerala's utilisation of health grants, private vs public expenditure on education, the interlinkages between growth and human development, the performance of the CAG and a book review on Semiconductors

You can read the entire issue here.

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

1. Utilisation of Fifteenth Finance Commission’s Health Grants: A Kerala Story

Author(s): Jos Chathukulam, Manasi Joseph, T V Thilakan, V Rekha and C V Balamurali

This paper evaluates the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and challenges involved in the management and utilisation of health grants in Kerala, a state renowned for its decentralised healthcare system, with the support of empirical evidence from all the urban and rural local governments in the state. It critically explores the factors that led to poor utilisation of health grants through the lens of politicisation, personalisation, corruption, post-office syndrome, capability traps, poor self-esteem, over emphasis on legalistic framework and rule-bound approaches, and relative absence of thick and thin accountability.

2. Private and Public Expenditure on Education in India

Author(s): Venkatanarayana Motkuri & E Revathi

This paper examined the trends in private and public expenditure on education in India during the last seven decades. It is observed from the analysis that India’s spending on education reached its peak in the recent past. Public and private expenditure on education are respectively equivalent to 3.9% and 2.7% of its GDP in 2018-19. Together, the country’s spending on education is equivalent to 6.6% of GDP. A notable trend over the past three decades is that private expenditure on education is growing faster than that of the public. The ratio of public to private in terms of expenditure on education has declined during this period. This reflects increasing privatisation of education in India, and has far reaching policy implications.

3. Interlinkages Between Economic Growth and Human Development in India: A State-Level Analysis

Author(s): Janak Raj, Vrinda Gupta, Aakanksha Shrawan

This study explores the relationship between economic growth and non-income components (health and education) of the Human Development Index (HDI) for 26 Indian states during the period from 1990 to 2019. The study identified a strong two-way relationship between economic growth and non-income components in the long run. Public expenditure on health and education did not impact human development outcomes, whereas total expenditure (public and private) did. However, public expenditure on health is crucial in ameliorating households’ financial burden and preventing impoverishment due to catastrophic health expenditure. Further, secondary education positively influenced agriculture and manufacturing, while higher education significantly shaped the services sector. The impact of higher education on services was four times greater than that of secondary education on manufacturing.

4. To Watch the Watch-dog of Public Finance

Author(s): T Selvaraju

The CAG Act, 1971  provides total functional freedom to CAG to better serve the objective of public audit; what, when, how, and how much to audit are their prerogatives. All the stakeholders, from the Parliament and Assembly to the common people, can know only what is disclosed in these audit reports. Entrusting the entire audit process to one person without any monitoring mechanism may lead to below average performance or deliberate omission to do their mandated duties. The decreasing number of audit reports in recent years, more focus on administrative audit and evaluation of performance under the pretext of value addition/ aiding for better governance, opaqueness in non-publishing of some audit reports, less coverage of audit, and availability of less resources for audit indicate that the performance of the institution of CAG is not at the expected level.

5. Semiconductor Geopolitics - Past, Present, and Future

Author: Shree Kumar

This article reviews the book When the Chips are Down: A Deep Dive into a Global Crisis - the first book that deals with the geopolitics of semiconductors comprehensively from an Indian lens, while placing it simultaneously in the global context. The book demystifies semiconductors and their complex supply chain, alongside the evolving roles of various nation-states in it.  The authors explain the 'meta-critical' aspects of semiconductors using three lenses: geopolitics, geoeconomics, and technology.   Overall, the book is an essential read for policy makers in India; in less than two-hundred pages, it covers the essentials that can help create an action plan for the next twenty years for the Indian semiconductor industry.

We invite articles for publication in the future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews  across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal.

We look forward to your contributions.

Dr. M Govinda Rao,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Member, Fourteenth Finance Commission
📧: editor@ippr.in

Hi there,

The November issue of IPPR has been published and it contains some fascinating papers on GST performance, tax buoyancy, wastewater surveillance, stray dog management in India, and a book review on China.

You can read the entire issue here

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

1. How the Pennies Drop: What GST revenue data tells us, and what it doesn’t

Author(s): Bibek Debroy and Devi Prasad Misra

The steady growth of GST revenue has been a robust barometer of the success of the reform. This paper delves into the trends of GST collections to evaluate the efficacy of the reform to generate revenue. Subsequently, an attempt is made to answer the questions – what drives revenue growth, and are the collections, collection efficiencies, and buoyancy of collections better under GST as compared to the pre-GST period? This is done by examining GST collections while controlling for extraneous factors, such as inflation. Further, a novel mechanism for computing the collection rate of GST, using only publicly-available data is proposed. This has potential applications in revenue modelling, in analysis of trends across time and geographies, and for policy formulation. Rationalization of tax rates, structural efficiencies, widening of the tax base, and enhanced compliance are seen to contribute to the positive outcomes observed. Overall, it is seen that GST has delivered on multiple fronts, including revenue growth, formalization of the economy, reduced rates of taxation, and creation of a more unified market. We also observe that post-GST tax buoyancy and collection efficiencies have shown significant improvement.

2. Tax Buoyancy: Too Noisy for Signals

Author(s): Renu Kohli

The true trend in tax revenues has been obscured by pandemic-related effects, inflation, and discretionary policy changes in recent years. These hinder accurate assessment of the state of the economy, a correct picture of which can only be had by stripping out these effects. In particular, the increasing deployment of additional revenue measures in succession for several years has masked information on the economy’s health that is observed from the automatic movement of tax revenues along with the GDP. This paper focuses upon tax buoyancy, which includes discretionary policy changes, to examine how the historical relationship of tax revenues with income may have been disturbed by exceptional shocks. Using early data and other evidence, it illustrates probable impacts of non-linear and asymmetric normalisation, the extraordinary price growth and uneven distribution thereof, and fiscal policy responses in the pandemic. It further compiles additional revenue mobilization measures for a longer period from 2011-12 to highlight how newer and fresher fiscal efforts have been used to complement a stagnant or shrinking tax base and how these can be distortionary in aspects beyond the diffusion of important macroeconomic signals.

3. Wastewater Surveillance for Disease Epidemiology: Embracing the Chaos and the Uncertainties

Author(s): Shabhavi Naik, Shyamala T, Varsha Shridhar

Wastewater-based epidemiological surveillance (WBE) showed the potential to become a pivotal public health tool for measuring community disease burden during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper argues for a national wastewater surveillance system for India, covering community-level assessment of various public health threats, along with integration of data from urban marginalised populations, to promote health equity and facilitate OneHealth-based thinking of disease emergence and spread. The paper outlines WBE efforts around the world, highlights its advantages as a cost-effective tool to supplement rather than supplant existing frameworks, and makes a case for its implementation in India, along with recommendations for next steps towards such implementation. The effective use of WBE should help India identify areas of emerging health threats, prepare for future infectious disease outbreaks, and allocate resources according to population requirements.

4. Navigating the streets: Examining the legal and policy dimensions of free-ranging dog management in India

Author(s): Gautam Aredath and Abi T Vanak

The calculation of minimum wages in India has evolved over the years, with various committees and legal frameworks guiding its determination. This paper examines the current norms for calculating minimum wages in India, tracing its evolution from the introduction of the Minimum Wages Act in 1948 to 2021. Despite the Act's repeal and the introduction of the Code on Wages, 2019, no quantitative criteria for the minimum wage calculation have been definitively laid out in the legislation.

5. Guangxi & China’s Gilded Age: A book review of “Red Roulette” by Desmond Shum

Author: Manoj Kewalramani

Desmond Shum’s Red Roulette is an important book to understand the political imperatives that have shaped China’s return to ideology under Xi Jinping. Shum’s is an autobiographical account of the political economy of China, where business success is closely linked to one’s political connections and the effective management of a web of relations. While the players and the terms of discourse may evolve, the game is always the same.

We invite articles for publication in the future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews  across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal.

We look forward to your contributions.

Dr. M Govinda Rao,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Member, Fourteenth Finance Commission
📧: editor@ippr.in

Hola,

The October issue of IPPR is out now and it features papers on public expenditure management through the d4PEAT framework, increasing tax compliance through better design, exploring the interplay between digital data protection and anti-trust, tracing the evolution of minimum wage calculations in India and a book review.

Head here to read the entire issue.

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

1. Digitalization for Public Expenditure Accountability and Transparency (d4PEAT): A re-engineered framework for Public Finance Management in India

Author(s): Indira Iyer and Soumi Roy Chowdhury

Reforms in public expenditure management in India, especially in accounting and administrative processes, have lagged behind the reforms in public revenue management. Lack of uniform accounting codes, limited data standards, and standalone systems across different tiers of governments have led to issues related to data comparability, data aggregability, and misclassification of data. In addition, lack of a single source of truth and inadequate end-to-end digital data capture limits the efficiency, tractability, and accountability of public funds. Limited just-in-time fund-flows, where fund disbursals and actual expenditures are not in tandem, further increases the uncertainty in government transactions. This study identifies the touchpoints where mainstreaming digitalization could address these fundamental challenges of public expenditure management through an actionable roadmap in the form of d4PEAT framework.

2. Indian Tax System: Compliance by Design

Author(s): M. Govinda Rao

Since taxes are compulsory payments, it is important to evolve the design and implementation features to ensure effective compliance with the tax to ensure both horizontal and vertical equity. Tax compliance is a multiplicative function of the rate of tax, probability of detection, and penalty rate.  The best practice approach to tax policy and reform is to evolve the system with a broad base, and low and less differentiated rates. Such a simple system with reasonable rates minimises the three costs associated with taxes namely, the collection cost to the government, compliance cost to the taxpayer, and distortion cost to the economy. Avoiding multiple objectives makes the tax system simple and broad-based and requires low tax rates to collect a given amount of revenue.  A strong technology platform for administering the tax increases the probability of detection and enhances voluntary compliance. 

3. Drafting a pro-antitrust and data protection regulatory framework

Author(s): Sharmadha Srinivasan, Vikram Sinha, & Saurabh Modi

The  Digital Personal Data Protection (DPDP) Act 2023 has significant implications for antitrust issues in digital markets.  A consensus has emerged among competition regulators across jurisdictions that in markets underpinned by data-driven business models, antitrust concerns intersect with data protection regulatory issues. With the recent enactment of the law, the landscape in India is now ripe to ensure that the two regulatory tools of data protection and competition work in tandem. The paper provides an overview of why a new approach to antitrust law is required in the realm of data-driven digital platforms, and delves into the evolving antitrust cases in India with respect to digital platforms to lay out the jurisprudence on data-related anti-competitive practices. The main objective of this paper is to map the Digital Personal Data Protection Act in the context of India's jurisprudence to theoretically illustrate how regulation of personal data could impact antitrust enforcement. Finally, the paper outlines how the CCI needs to assess digital antitrust cases and how the personal data legislation will need to evolve to achieve the twin goals of data protection and fair competition.

4. What exactly are the current norms for calculating the minimum wage in India?

Author(s): Jehosh Paul

The calculation of minimum wages in India has evolved over the years, with various committees and legal frameworks guiding its determination. This paper examines the current norms for calculating minimum wages in India, tracing its evolution from the introduction of the Minimum Wages Act in 1948 to 2021. Despite the Act's repeal and the introduction of the Code on Wages, 2019, no quantitative criteria for the minimum wage calculation have been definitively laid out in the legislation.

5. The Quest for Supremacy and Sagacity in AI

Author: Anushka Saxena

Artificial Intelligence has now become critical to the geopolitical contest for technological supremacy. Paul Scharre's latest book, "Four Battlegrounds," uncovers key aspects of this technology, and the four battlegrounds this contest is being fought on – data, talent, compute, and institutions. This book review assesses a wide range of issues the book covers through a unique story-telling writing style, and highlights implications for how we understand AI and its uses. The book isn't entirely jargon-free, but this review argues that Scharre does a great job at bringing down the walls of incomprehensibility with regards to this key technology.

We invite articles for publication in the future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews  across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal.

We look forward to your contributions.

Dr. M Govinda Rao,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Member, Fourteenth Finance Commission
📧: editor@ippr.in

Greetings,

The May issue of Indian Public Policy Review has been published. In this issue, there are papers on mitigating antimicrobial resistance within G20 countries, unification of India's disparate healthcare markets, a framework for classifying strategic and critical vulnerability in trade, functioning of the Indian capital markets and a review of a book on astropolitics. Head here to read the entire issue.

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

1. Mitigation of Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) in G20

Author(s): Aniket Shevade & Shambhavi Naik

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a recognised global threat to health security. However, mainstreaming responses to this threat into public policy has remained elusive, and anti-AMR measures have been limited to health interventions. AMR is caused by global factors, including sustained and irresponsible antibiotic use in humans and animals, as well as climate change. Hence its effective management also requires global collaborative efforts. This policy brief provides an overview of AMR, its significance, and the current landscape of policies, national action plans, and funding for AMR research and surveillance within the G20 countries.

2. Unifying India’s Healthcare Markets

Author(s): Murali Neelakantan & Ashish Kulkarni

This paper delves into the structure of the healthcare market in India, contending the existence of three distinct markets: the government monopsony market, the institutional market, and the retail market. We suggest unification of India's disparate healthcare markets, advocating for a more prominent role for the government. The proposed unification is a modification of the school voucher program, aimed at ensuring competitiveness on the supply side, and thereby improving service quality.

3. Defining Strategic and Critical Vulnerabilities in Asymmetrical Trade Interdependence

Author(s): Amit Kumar

Debates around dependence-induced strategic and critical vulnerabilities have thus gained traction with an end objective to reduce or mitigate them. But a lack of conceptual framework underpinning the ideas of dependence, vulnerabilities, and strategic and critical vulnerabilities plagues the present decision-making apparatus, which runs the risk of treating subjects under each of these categories as synonymous. To prevent a one-size-fits-all approach emanating from the lack of conceptual differentiation, this paper presents a framework, in the form of a series of tests, to understand whether trade in a certain commodity between countries can be classified as a critical vulnerability.

4. Covid-19 and the Goalkeeper of the Indian Economy

Author(s): S Manjesh Roy

The decision and the conviction to keep the capital markets functioning amidst the uncertainty of COVID-19 lockdown, proved to be a game changer for the Indian economy. The robust systems put in place over decades and reinforced with measures to strengthen systemic integrity during COVID, revived the inherent trust in the Indian markets, especially at the retail level. This deepening of the investor base has moved the Indian capital market to a higher orbit igniting a structural shift in the economy. 

War, Peace and Cooperation in the Last Wilderness

Author: Aditya Ramanathan

This review essay considers contemporary issues in ‘astropolitics’, the geopolitics of outer space. It does so in the context of Tim Marshall’s 2023 book, The Future of Geography: How Power and Politics in Space Will Change Our World. After enjoying considerable success with his books on Earth-bound geopolitics, Marshall turns his attention to outer space and once again finds the politics between states playing out, albeit amid a radically different and hostile geography beyond the planet’s atmosphere. The Future of Geography serves as a first-rate primer on astropolitics.

We invite articles for publication in the future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews  across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal.

We look forward to your contributions.

Dr. M Govinda Rao,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Member, Fourteenth Finance Commission
📧: editor@ippr.in

Greetings,

The May issue of Indian Public Policy Review has been published. In this issue, there are papers on the nature and extent of off-budget borrowing from the union and state governments, the sustainability of debt, India’s opportunity in the new Industrial Revolution 4.0, the changes to the code on wages, and a book review.

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

1. The Nature and Implications of Off-Budget Borrowings in India: Centre and States

Author(s): Shruti Gupta & Kevin James

The lack of transparency around off-budget borrowing is a major example of data gaps in India, and has been persistent across the Union and state levels. The paper examines the regulatory framework and institutional gaps surrounding off-budget borrowings in India. It attempts to build a comprehensive understanding on the methods used for such borrowings and ascertains their true extent. There is a need for an improvement in the coverage, timeliness, quality and integrity of fiscal reporting, in line with international standards. Eventually, that could be best achieved with a comprehensive and consolidated PFM law for the Union and the states.

2. Sustainability and Threshold Value of Public Debt of Centre and All State Governments in India

Author(s): K.R. Shanmugam & P.S. Renjith

This study examines the sustainability and the threshold level of public debt of the Centre and all State Governments in India, using the latest data from 1990-91 to 2020-21, and using statistical methods and threshold regression method. The results suggest that the current levels of public debt of both the Centre and all States are unsustainable, and the debt sustainability threshold is about 40% for the Centre and 22% for all States. The simulation exercises based on the debt dynamics suggest that the Indian economy should grow at 12% (nominal), and the fiscal deficit target should be 2% each for the Centre and all States from 2023-24 onwards, for the Centre to attain the debt sustainability target before 2027-28 and all States to do so in 2030-31.

3. Unlocking India’s Potential in Industrial Revolution 4.0: National Innovation System, Demography, and Inclusive Development

Author(s): Nagesh Kumar

This article takes stock of India’s opportunities in harnessing IR4.0 for inclusive development, and the challenges that the revolution presents before the country. It argues that with India’s extant capabilities in ICT software development, a youthful demography, and skill development potential, the country can be at the centre of IR4.0 -- becoming the world’s skill or talent capital, besides leveraging the potential of the new technologies for closing development gaps. It also summarises some policy lessons for tapping the potential of India in IR4.0.

4. Rule 3 of the Draft Code on Wages (Central) Rules, 2020: An important milestone

Author(s): Jehosh Paul

This paper argues that despite its shortcomings, Rule 3(1) in the Draft Rules is still an important milestone for the progressive realisation of workers’ welfare in India, because it is the first time that the Union Government has shown normative commitment towards ratifying the recommendations of the 15th Indian Labour Conference, 1957. The benefit of calculating the minimum wage as per Rule 3(1) of the Draft Rules, which is in tune with the 15th Indian Labour Conference recommendations, would be that it will ensure that the minimum wages will be set at a quantum higher than usually set by the Committees and Wage Boards appointed by the Union Governments throughout history.

A Reservoir for ‘Intellectual Extractivism’

Authors: Jos Chathukulam

A Book Review of “Collected Scientific Papers for the Pioneering Economist and Planner P J Thomas” by E M Thomas

We invite articles for publication in the future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews  across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal.

We look forward to your contributions.

Dr. M Govinda Rao,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Member, Fourteenth Finance Commission
📧: editor@ippr.in

Greetings,

The March issue of Indian Public Policy Review has been published. At a glance, this issue has some exciting papers, such as inter-state trade in India, the ban on e-cigarettes and their effect on health outcomes, agglomeration effects in India’s manufacturing sector, reforming SAARC, and a review of Dr.Rangarajan’s book Forks in the Road.

Here’s a brief summary of the articles in this issue:

India on the Move: An examination of the volume and direction of internal trade in India

Bibek Debroy and Devi Prasad Misra use domestic taxation data to understand the volume and directions of internal trade in India and other countries. The study quantifies interstate trade flows in India to amount to about 69% of the GDP when domestic movement of imported goods are included, and about 35% of the GDP when only domestically-produced goods are taken into account. Further, internal trade appears to be growing at more than twice the pace of growth of the GDP

Does India's Ban on Electronic Cigarettes Improve Public Health Outcomes?

The paper by Rajeev Gowda and Shonali Thangiah applies a risk analysis framework to examine whether India’s ban on ENDS improves public health outcomes, or whether an alternative approach such as regulation would be more effective. The evidence-based recommendation for India would be to regulate at least Heat Not Burn (HNB) devices under the Cigarettes and Other Tobacco Products Act, as this can help reduce harm and promote innovation in devices that can wean users off nicotine dependence.

Nature of agglomeration of the manufacturing sector –a study of Indian Districts

Piyali Majumder's study estimates the degree of agglomeration of the Indian organised manufacturing sector and examines its evolution pattern across districts over the period 2000-01 to 2009-10. The overall degree of agglomeration has been moderate and, over time, has registered a declining trend. While analysing the nature of industrial agglomeration, it has been observed that most of the low-tech and medium-low-tech industries are found to be highly agglomerated. Further, 42% of the highly agglomerated industries are also highly polluting in nature.

SAARC – Time To Change

This paper by Srinivasa Madhur examines SAARC’s performance and failures as a regional cooperation forum. Against the backdrop of the evolving geopolitical situation, the paper reviews South Asian integration in a nutshell. It then examines the progress and failures of SAARC as a regional forum in four key areas of regional cooperation and integration: trade,  money and finance, and people-to-people contacts.

India's Reforms Through the Lens of Dr. Rangarajan

N R Bhanumurthy reviews Rangarajan's book "Forks in the Road". The review attempts to highlight the critical role Dr. Rangarajan has played in a few major policy decisions, that have permanently changed the shape and destiny of the Indian economy.

We invite articles for publication in the future issues of the journal. We welcome original papers and book reviews  across the following topics: Economics, Political Science, Public Finance, International Relations and Security, Political and Defence Strategy, Public Enterprises, and Science and Technology Policy, among others. More information on submissions can be found here. 

We would appreciate sharing the journal with your friends, colleagues, and students and encourage them to make submissions as well. Finally, you can follow us on Twitter @IPPRjournal.

We look forward to your contributions.

Dr. M Govinda Rao,
Managing Editor, IPPR
Member, Fourteenth Finance Commission
📧: editor@ippr.in

P.S: We have changed the format and service provider for sending this newsletter.

The Indian Public Policy Review is published by the Takshashila Institution, Bangalore.

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