Using a simple HTF 200 & 365 Daily moving averages to understand the HTF environment we are in, there is an argument for both the bottom & further downside while one thing remains certain. For now we do remain to be in a bearish trend.

That is a fact but obviously there is also a speculation and anticipation that we could be in a similar situation that the market was in after the 2022 bottom.

The similarity of that time is obvious. A reclaim of the 200 Daily moving average & impulsive move from the lows. Back then we also traded beneath the 365 MA (the blue line), retraced back down to the 200 MA & then finally shifted the HTF trend with another push higher in March 2023

However there was a one major difference back then because when we did reclaim the 200 MA we have also broke the HTF market structure & markets revolve mainly around three things.

1) Liquidity
2) Market Structure
3) Supply & Demand

This time however we have not broken & accepted above the important May high yet. And perhaps it comes in the coming weeks but so far it has not.

And so there is the opposite argument that the current situation resembles an inverse situation of the 2023 break of HTF trend & double retest. That is until the May high is broken.

Enjoying this breakdown? I do this every single week with even more detail and cover even more markets, psychology, teachings and so forth.

And so just like back then we remain in a broader 7-month range instead. With the HTF direction, yet to be decided.

In this context, it is important to wait for more market clues

The current contradiction of the market is seen on many charts.

On one hand there is a powerful signal of a Weekly bullish divergence that has made the market bottom in 2022

On the other, there is an inverse situation with the same time I outlined

On one hand we see the largest BTC supply at a loss in history that has historically marked the bottoms before

On the other we see that those losses have not yet been materialized which marked every prior cycle bottom. Will it still happen? That is a question yet to be answered. It surely does not have to. But so far it has each time even when people thought it wouldn’t anymore.

As you can see we are in a unique situation in which nothing is certain, and both options make sense. While some may present it with an upmost certainty that a bottom is in or a further downside is “guaranteed”.

We live in a polarized world where nothing in between is allowed.

However when it comes to facts, we do remain to be in a HTF bear market both structurally just a MA wise for now, with some proven indicators not yet flashing bottoms signs, but some others do.

The recent momentum of the past month has definitely been bullish but whether it enhances further into something more sustainable is a question yet to be answered

And in the context of all of these things the market is sort of in a neutral situation where further clues are needed for a broader bull market positioning

Currently we are at a discount of this bigger range from a bearish standpoint or a premium from a bullish one.

It is also fair to point that a macro geopolitical risks have been rising further in the recent month with

1) First US rate hikes since Feb 2022 coming up
2) Long end yields across nations have been heavily rising
3) Further escalation of the US-Iran war & remaining closure of the Strait of Hormuz
4) Rising Oil prices & prevailing PCE inflation
5) US erasing jobs
6) And the US midterms coming up
7) Collapsing Yen currency, affecting the US bond market & DXY.

Contrary to that the AI buildout has been strong and has been a broader driver of the markets in the recent year(s) + the SPX earnings continue to be strong for now.

Some of the topics are discussed here 👇

Jackis' Nest

SPX near ATHs while the Bond market is shooting higher

The US economy has been holding strong for now & the AI buildout has been exciting to watch but the cracks are starting to show…

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3 days ago · 2 likes · JACKIS

These are my thoughts on the current HTF standpoint of BTC. For now the opportunity still sits elswehere & crypto remains mainly for trading to me but perhaps it changes soonish.

Obviously way more thoughts, details & nuance are discussed in my Newsletter & not just for BTC, not just for crypto but for other markets too. Which have been the primary focus of ours over the past year.

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Energy ( ) just broke out to a two decade long highs, retested & went higher again, confirming the trend. I think this represents huge opportunity over the coming years as the world is going through a de-globalization and the run for cheap energy is at the upmost priority for many nations atm.

Healthcare ( ) I like a lot and am myself positioned for it, as we run into a certain demographic collapse over the comming decades, more & more people will require healthcare services. The chart also just broke to new highs so this is a nobrainer imo.

Financial sector ( ) also does look strong and I do own a few financial companies myself such as CRCL, SOFI & NU so it makes sense too but the idea of traditional banks of old is imo behind us & a new model is emerging. The good news is that the ETF should absorb this change.

I do think the highest certain opportunity right now is in energy but outsized returns are in Healthcare again. Financials could do well but also not so much, especially if the market were to hit a recession or correction. AI defo has the momentum but from a risk standpoint is defo not at the best spot right now.

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The bond market is considered to be smarter than the stock market, let alone crypto market, so it will be interesting to see how it all unfolds in the upcoming months and if SPX can continue to rally, despite it all.

The latest BoJ & FED intervention led to a strenghtening Yen, weaker Dollar & stronger SPX but how much is the market believing it was the ultimate solution vs a temporary fix not fixing the bigger problem? We shall find out.

The Japan’s 30-Year Yield is closing at its highest level in history at 4.185% & soon to be breaking the May ATH amidst a collapsing Yen currency, that recently needed not just BoJ to step in but even the FED (which is preventing its own bond collapse by BoJ selling it)

The US 10 Year is at 4.8% and continues trending higher & the 30Y has broken a 4-year ascending channel to the upside, retested it & is on track to the highest levels since 2004, with interest payments for the US gov at $1.25T already.

France is basically bankrupt and the situation in EU is even worse with long end yields melting upwards, making the service of the debt & pensions impossible.

And now FED is likely to start hiking again in September by 25% basis point after the Warsh speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

And with major refinincing taking place for all sectors at higher levels. To say it's gonna be challenging for them would be an understatement. Commerical real estate is apperently to be facing major losses over the coming months and bleeding each month that follows

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Oil remains to be trading around 90$ and the “temorary war with Iran & closure of the Strait of Hormuz” has now extended for nearly the rest of the year with no signs of that getting solved anytime soon. The price of Oil would’ve been even higher had the US not been massively dumping its strategic oil reserves over the past months too.

The NFP prints (jobs created or better, jobs erased) been pinning negative numbers for over a year now (strong recession signal & top 3 indicators the FED watches now)

The cash on the sidelines is the lowest in history

I write about markets in great detail every single week, try it out for free in a 7-day trial

The mid terms are in two months and the Trump admin is doing all in its power to keep the markets up until then, still the Dems with a 51% probability to take it now.

The seasonality around mid terms is as follows

On the other hand, the stock markets in general have been running at unusually high revs in recent years and the momentum can keep on going for a while

I personally do remain to be long major commodity & energy sectors + specific stocks despite it all but the math isn't really mathing here for the broader index.

I'm really interested to see how this plays out and how much the AI buildout can hide the rest of the problems beneath the carpet.

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Also let me know what you think of this divergence. Most proffessional traders I follow are very careful & defensive right now.

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Crypto has rejected in the past week but the decision point remains open to both sides but regardless of that, the sentiment has hit EXTREME GREED!

PA wise we are getting Monthly closes today so we are going to look at those, and given it is the end of the month, I’m going to give an update to my positioning.

On Friday, Kevin Warsh the new FED chair, has ended a forward guidance of the FED as he has announced it during the long awaited Jackson Hole Symposium event (which is a meeting of Central Bankers giving a guide on CB policy going forward),

Also during the speech, he did not promise a September rate hike yet but instead he said to stop expecting the Fed to pre-announce every move.

As that happened, the September hike odds jumped from 35% to 56% immediately, currently at 60% but mainly, the two & ten year US Yields went higher & the 30Y is bouncing from the previous ATH while the US dollar strengthened and the broader risk sold off together on Friday.

The path forward is becoming less predictable than during the Powell era as Warsh wants to end the regime in which FED was doing decisions based on what the market does & the market was doing decisions based on the forward guidance from the FED. Not being very efficient.

And instead it wants the markets to be way more depending on the incoming data such as CPI, PCE or NFP (this Friday). And for this very reason these events will now be way more volatile than in the past years including BTC & it is important to put them on our calendars & charts.

Basically Warsh wants the markets to choose a direction based on the data & then react themselves, instead of the other way around.

Let’s begin.

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OUTLINE

1. BTC Monthly

2. BTC Weekly

3. BTC Daily

4. IBIT

5. BTC vs DXY
   —-

6. DXY

7. Extreme Greed

8. US NFP (Jobs Created)
   —-

9. ETH Monthly

10. ETH Weekly

11. ETH Daily
    —-

12. TOTAL Monthly Crypto index

13. Stablecoin Dominance
    —-

14. Seasonality

15. My positioning
    —-

16. News

ABBREVIATIONS that I use at the end

1. BTC Monthly

Read more

Nuclear went through its deep bear market after the Fukushima blew up in Japan & then countries getting away from it out of fears, with Germany going as far as destroying its power plants.

It is now experiencing its renaissance and has established a clean trend that is merely just beginning!

And after spending nearly a year in a correction, it has now finished its double retest once more, as it did in 2025, while being above the diagonal support.

The paid subs knew about this opportunity way ahead and were getting in directly on the sweep sub 40$, and in miners with a great potential, some already up +50% from the lows

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It still however represents a great opportunity even as of now, still relatively early while the bigger trend is merely establishing itself and the Monthly candle of August is confirming the respect of the trend! I’ll look to add to this thesis.

Most people faded my Gold thesis in 2023 & then Silver thesis in 2024/25, then so many were surprised and started top blasting the current top.

I highly recommend to not fade this one, especially as we remain in a decade of commodities, which those of you who know me from X know, that I’ve been discussing it since the depths of 2022 bear market.

If this content helped you or you find it interesting, a restack helps more than you’d think. It’s free.

We bought three specific companies to bet on the growth of Uranium to get outsized returns, and you can find them in my monthly portfolio update that will be released next Monday

Have your own picks or thesis in regards to Uranium? Let me know in the comments, interested in your thoughts as well!

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Before we begin, and some of you already know this from my X subs posts but let me tell you that the past week has been completely crazy for me, as I went through a rollocoaster of emotions.

First of all, my grandma who was super close & dear to me lost a battle with cancer mid week & passed away. We had a special connection and I truly felt this one. We had to prepare the funeral & everything. It was all very emotional for me. Also a very short period of time to prepare everything but we did. And after the funeral there was a close family gathering at the table, eating a lunch, talking, sharing memories & so forth, which is a tradition here in Czech.

And then basically after it finished and we have arrived home, my lady started to give birth… Absolutely insane day. We then sped up to the maternity hospital & fortunately everything went smooth & quick and I became a double father through the night! :D One life for another… The mix of sad & joyful emotions through that week & through that day of this magnitude was something I have never experienced before. The bitter sweet symphony of life indeed.

And I understand that you guys are likely not interested in my personal life but I wanted to share this story with you, first of all to understand how unexpected, surprising, sad & happy life can be sometimes and all at once. And second to understand what I have been going through over the past week(s) to months (alongside other things) & to be going forward as well having two small babies at home.

And now when it comes to the market, as we discussed a big move was coming and it indeed came literally the same week in crypto and it was to the upside.

I’m really glad that we got ourselves out of the low volatility period and I’m just hoping we stay moving for a while, as volatility brings opportunities to whatever side of the market.

Obviously now people are full emotions. Those who were long already counting what they are going to buy with their future profits while sideliners are feeling a typical FOMO.

Therefore we will discuss if the bottom is in now or not, and what to look or be careful for but mainly see things with a calm, unemotional head.

Gold, Silver & Uranium all had a great move from the lows we discussed while the broader equities have corrected in the past week. Except Ferrari, Netflix & Unity which have all bounced up significantly.

This weeks’ release will be a lot about charts & less about the chatter

Let’s chart!

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OUTLINE

1. BTC Volatility

2. BTC Weekly

3. BTC vs inverse August 23

4. Missing BTC bottom signals

5. BTC Daily
   —-

6. ETH Weekly

7. ETH Daily

8. USDT.D
   —-

9. AVAX & ADA

10. LINK

11. Circle
    —-

12. FCX

13. Gold & Silver

14. Uranium

    —-

15. Ferrari

16. Unity
    —-

17. News

ABBREVIATIONS that I use at the end

Read more

And it is incredibly important to distinguish between

1. Unrealized losses

2. USD losses

3. BTC losses

1) Unrealized losses

Yes it is true that unrealized losses have hit the highest levels in history in June

This is confluent with every previous market bottom

2) USD losses

Yes it is true that realized losses in $ terms have hit the highest levels in history in February

This is confluent with the previous 2022 market bottom

3) BTC losses

But the final piece is missing and that is the realized losses in BTC terms

In those terms, we are nowhere near a bottom & are rather at the same level as BTC was during the 2018 “unbreakable floor” just before it broke down and dropped another -50%

Now why is this so important?

1) Unrealized losses

This shows how many coins are people/entities willing to hold and not sell but capitulation is not confirmed here. People simply hold through a drawdown.

2) Realized losses in USD

The $ terms isn’t as useful of a metric here. Let’s explain on SPX

A 50% fall in 2000–02 destroyed dramatically more nominal wealth than the 50% fall in 1973–74

Yet both were a -50% drop just a few decades away from each other.

The table below clearly ilustrates the significant difference.

In 1973-74 the drop erased about $525 Billion in USD but
In 2000-02 the drop erased about $6 TRILLION in USD!! 👀

Both were -50% drops but $ erased was not the same.

It was about 12x bigger.

Therefore claiming that we have the highest losses in $ is true but as the market cap of BTC grew from $300B to $2.5T the drop will naturally be bigger in $ terms.

And the fact we are on par with 2022 but market cap went more than 8x bigger shows we need more in $.

3) Realized losses

So finally, this leads us back to this chart which is important above all others.

If we are to repeat prior cycles, we are not there yet. We have not yet seen the proper capitulation needed in BTC terms.

And when we were at times like this a -50% drop followed.

Now obviously those unrealized losses do not need to get materialized and this could be it.

But if we are to repeat prior cycles, then understand we have not yet & there is more to go.

As I always say, do not take anything for granted and be ready for all possiblities.

The fact that unrealized losses have been in confluence with every prior cycle bottom is probably the fact that BTC has been falling from much higher levels

Some people held through, the rest capitulated and it correlated.

This cycle is different (in many ways)

Mainly it is important to understand what metrics you are looking at and what context they hold & not just look at one, see it being the same as prior cycle low and that's it.

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And so the current realized losses in BTC have not even reached the capitulation levels of February 2018 but we could consider them being close and the February 2026 drop to be on par.

After that a sweep followed in June 2018/2026 & then low volume range.

Then real capitulation.

What is also interesting comparing 2018 and now is that both first capitulations happened on Feb 6th & the second sweep of the capitulation low came in June, followed by a low volume range.

What is different however is that in 2018, the bear started in Dec 17 while this time it started in October 2025

Using the same analogy from the top timewise gets us close to November 2018

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And if you enjoyed this article, I write contextual breakdowns on markets such as this but way longer every single week! You’ll love it alongside others.

Hi Substack fam & welcome to the 112th publication of the J’nest Newsletter!

We have arrived at a period of extremely low volatility in both stocks just as crypto. And as we know a low volatility preceeds a big volatility and vice versa.

So we are going to look into the prior periods of when VIX was this low in the recent times, what followed & how crypto usually tend to react.

We will also discuss a great opportunity in the Chinese Tech ETF - CQQQ and have a look at how probable is a 15% PA return in passive holding over a 40 year period.

I’ll allso be giving a nice teaching into moving averages and my personal expertise on them that I learned throughout the years and as I’m in general not a big fan of indicators, moving averages on the other hand are a powerful helping tool in my decision making often.

Let’s jump into it and perhaps kindly think of sharing the publication below

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OUTLINE

1. BTC Weekly

2. BTC Daily

3. Bitcoin Volatility
   —-

4. ETH Weekly

5. ETH Daily
   —-

6. Stablecoin Dominance

   —-

7. VIX + SPX

8. VIX implications on BTC
   —-

9. CQQQ

10. How likely is a 15% P.A. return?
    —-

11. Moving Averages
    —-

12. News

ABBREVIATIONS that I use at the end

Read more

Hi fam & welcome to the 111th release of the J’Nest

The boredom & underperformance in Crypto continues while SPX has hit fresh new ATHs & semis have bounced decently as well.

STRC has climbed back to 95 over July & August. Is the risk over? Or is it just the deep breath before the plunge?

Gold & Silver have bounced significantly a potentialy created their MTF bottom while Copper makes new ATHs!

And we will do a deep breakdown on Risk Management today as well.

Let’s begin

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OUTLINE

1. BTC Weekly

2. BTC Daily

3. STRC & BTC

4. Let’s assume BTC Bottom is in

   —-

5. ETH Weekly

6. ETH Daily

7. ETH vs NVDA & Gold
   —-

8. Gold

9. Silver

10. Copper
    —-

11. Risk Management
    —-

12. ETH/BTC
    —-

13. News

ABBREVIATIONS that I use at the end

1) BTC Weekly

Read more

Hello guys, this is just a technical update that I see lots of people being subscribed here on Substack to me but I wanted to note that this isn’t the same thing as having a paid subscription with an access to the Newsletter aka the J’Nest.

As we have been doing the transition from the BB site to Substack for technical reasons, plenty of you re-subscribed here but haven’t done the paid subscription which does not give you the access to the Nest.

You should be able to upgrade below

I still stand behind the fact, that it is the best hold for this year when it comes to commodities & perhaps the best hold in general, will see about that of course.

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Hi everyone & welcome to the 110th release of the J’Nest!

The past week was filled with plenty of events worth discussing.

Bitcoin cold storages of some users got hacked, regardless if they did everything right, affecting the trust in it

We also had an FOMC week & Japanesse intervention, both sending USDJPY & DXY plummeting while the long end US yields broke to the highest levels in 20 years and since before the Financial Crisis of 08, breaking out of a 3 year range.

And also the US is depleting its strategic oil reserves to keep Oil prices tamed, at least for now, preventing an explosion to two decade highs

We also had Monthly closes across the board, which imo gives out a lots of important details about the future direction of the crypto space so we gotta discuss those and as usual, as it is a new month, it is time to update my personal portfolio holdings.

Let’s discuss.

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OUTLINE

1. BTC Monthly

2. BTC Weekly

3. BTC/EUR & BTC/JPY

4. BTC Daily

5. ETH Monthly

6. ETH Weekly

7. ETH Daily

8. ETH H4

   ---

9. Stablecoin Dominance

10. Bitcoin Coldcard Hack

11. Japan Intervention

12. FOMC report

13. Tesla

    ---

14. My positioning

15. News

ABBREVIATIONS that I use at the end

1) BTC Monthly

I had a question last week, why do we look at the Monthly TF & why it is so important.

The answer to that is pretty simple, the larger the TF, the higher the importance & relevance compared to lower timeframes to this. Monthly & Weekly are the most important ones when it comes to HTF bias. Daily in this context is noise & anything below is just irrelevant.

It is also really as simple as the fact that not everyone looks at LTF but nearly everyone looks at HTF & mainly big money that simply has to operate on larger TF because of its huge liquidity

So yeah, last month(s) I was discussing that we are likely to get a July squeeze and we have! And the region to watch for the bounce was exactly 67K and we got it precisely.

We bounced in that level & rejected.

Here you can see the rejection that has been as precise as the January one, that we discussed last month. That said, I thought we’d move rather quicker and instead we spent the entire July on the bounce & ranging.

So what to expect for August, potentialy September? These two months are definitely the most bearish ones when it comes to seasonality and not just for Bitcoin/Crypto but for Stocks as well.

Seasonality will not work every single year but there is definitely data behind it that sets the seasonality stats, so from my personal observations the best approach is simply to use it as a confluence against the current data of each year.

And the data is that we are in a bear market, we have created the first Monthly LL in years & have rejected from Monthly resistance again. So yeah it fits and fits a lot!

That obviously as I taught you many times already does not guarantee anything but for now, that is the current bias, the current risk in the market, alongside other stuff.

We still did not get that mid June Weekly swing high sweep yet, at least on the USD pair and more on that later so I still can’t fully reject the possibility of us still doing that in August, further prolonging this range but would expect lower by the end of it.

The next logical bearish target would be the significant low from August 24 at 49K. If we break the current lows at 59K that is very likely to come rather quickly.

To get a bullish Monthly close & get somewhat bullish bias, then August would have to close above 67K, any Monthly wick above & closure below, rather shows failed bullish auction above & rejection by the bears

Market is still in a bearish trend & therefore our bias remains as such as well.

2) BTC Weekly

The past week has brought us an engulfing rejection of the prior 3 weekly candle bodies.

No significant liquidity has been however taken yet, not the external above mid june highs & not the internal yet either.

Read more

Hello everyone & welcome to the 109th release of the J’Nest & last one in July as we fully complete the transition towards Substack!

In the past week we saw the first canaries of a bear market to fall and it was two exchanges of BitMex & BitMart, where especially with BitMex it is insane to see given the fact it was the biggest exchange in the space just 6 years ago.

These exchanges are not failing from like a fraud collapse or something like during FTX but rather by the lack of volume & inactivity in the space.

This could be the first avalanche of things to come because keep in mind that so far we haven’t seen any major company give out in this bear phase, yet. And in each bear, some major company blew up sooner or later.

We are also running into an FOMC week, with a potential rate hike decision this or next meeting which is defo super important to observe as the US yields & DXY keep on rising higher & the geopolitical tensions with rising Oil prevail.

The Strait of Hormuz got closed once more & except a small June flow, it has been effectively closed since February putting a further upward pressure on the Oil prices.

And semiconductors have reached the most overbought level in history surpassing their dot-com bubble top.

All while the cash on the sidelines has hit the lowest levels in history as well & everyone is positioned in the market.

Let’s discuss

OUTLINE

1. BTC Weekly

2. BTC Daily

3. BTC Funding Rate
   —-

4. ETH Weekly

5. ETH Daily

6. COIN vs ETH
   —-

7. Crypto exchanges shutting down

8. Cash on the sidelines
   —-

9. FOMC
   ——

10. McDonalds

11. Netflix
    —-

12. Trading Psychology
    —-

13. News
    

ABBREVIATIONS that I use at the end

1) BTC Weekly

This just might be one of the most boring periods of BTC in a long while. Not really anything new has happened from the past week and so we wait for the market to make its move

We had another bullish candle but with a tight candle body.

Will quickly repeat our plan:

Overall Monthly & Weekly trend remains bearish and our current bias is therefore lower, we however are always watchful for a potential bottom and the current three drives around 60K resembles inversed top. The broader risk conditions do not favor upside however.

The key Weekly level for BTC sits above the mid June high where we look for either a Weekly sweep, rejection & potential shorts lower or we await for a break of this level for a bigger MTF push into even as high as 74K. Such a push would still not make us a HTF bullish but it could be a start

Mid June high at 67,3K is external Weekly liquidity & 61,8 to 61,3K is internal

2) BTC Daily

As discussed, after the initial push in July, BTC spent the rest of its time ranging here and slowly grinding upwards but moving nowhere either.

Currently it is facing internal resistance at 65,6K but not really somehow major one either

The levels are similar to Weekly but more detailed. We see the external liquidity above us in form of a last week high, the mid June high & the void create during the mid June sell-off. That liquidity is external to the current range

Read more

There is a general social media, patological need to be "bullish at the bottom" & "bearish at the top" and while that is awesome for the clout & likes, it is generally not the best approach to the markets

But there is also a difference between bias & execution.

It may look great in hindsight but what many people do not see is that someone was trying to call the bottom the whole way down or the top all the way up, usually also having about 20 posts both ways about it too, then deleting the wrong ones.

In most market situations, there are good arguments for both sides, especially on different TFs. Good traders understand this.

So it is mainly about seeking the higher contextual odds & getting executions at discounted levels to your thesis.

Lesser traders will try to make fun of this approach saying:

"So you are saying the price can go up or down"

Yes that is exactly true, it can and you need to be ready at all times for both outcomes. It does not mean however that the odds are 50/50 either.

Technically,

"everything was indeed in the charts" after the fact, from hindsight & someone will always be "right"

But it did not make a setup wrong though. There is no reason stressing about it.

So how can you be bullish at the top & bearish at the bottom & still outperform the market?

Because there are HTF invalidations & there is a difference between bias & execution

If people take things out of the context, it can look like this. Being bullish at the top & then selling at -20% lower.

F*&king clown right?

Well, we are gonna take literally the same situation just add a further context to it

It still stays true that you were bullish at the top & sold 20% lower BUT you did not sell at a loss of 20%. You actually sold at a 30% profit still.

And mainly when the HTF invalidation took place, you escaped additional 40% drop!

So yes you were bullish at the top but still outperformed the market.

And so the situation can very well be vice versa

Bottom will be called on each dip & it realistically could be which is also important to realize, but it is also a bearish a trend and it can continue for a while, as it already has.

And again, it ain't a wrong approach trying to catch it either when you buy at discounted levels as long as your invalidation is tight

But you never know how long the trend is going to last & you can easily wait for it.

The bias can remain bearish, even it is a bottom & you'd be bearish at the bottom. OMG, what a clown right? No!

Once again, it wouldn't tell the full story

Let's assume, you'd even re-buy as high as 74K now. It is still a 26% discount + you avoided all the headaches associated with the downside and be better off.

On the other hand the trend can continue down deeper & for longer, and if you do not acknowledge that, you are bound to end up broke one day, even if it worked for you this time.

The same thing at the top of course. You never know how long the trend will last

This time we got halted after 10/10th. In 2017, the trend continued, even after a parabola

If you sold at 2900 "top", even the next bear market bottom did not retest it

Moral of the story?

You can be bullish at the top & bearish at the bottom & still catch the turn arounds pretty quickly as long as you act on them & don't fall into hopium territory and make insane returns.

And yes sometimes you will also actually "sell the bottom" or "buy the top" as long as you can act on the turn around again.

There is also a different approach to tops & bottoms from my POV

And it is also totally fine to admit that you are not good at executing these turn arounds & instead just DCA good assets, nothing wrong with that approach too.

The worst approach is when you think something is guaranteed to happen & do not act upon its invalidation quickly.

Keep in mind that you can always be bearish at the bottom (while being bearish most of the way down preferably) and then act on a clear change of trend, be bullish on the local reversal top but execute on a correction

Also remember that markets can go down -50% after going down -50% & that “insanity” can often times happen as well, so while the trend is bearish, you can remain bearish too

Cheers fam

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Hello everyone & welcome to the 108th release of the J’Nest!

Today we will do a typical top down breakdown as the crypto market has been range bound for nearly two months now & not much has happened but might be happening in the next few months

We will look at a confluence from Hype & Solana nad what information we can get from it but then, and mainly for todays release I wanted to write a few words on how to deal with losses in trading/investing which I believe is the most crucial psychological step each of you need to make to make it!

And learning that will not only help you in this game but in your lives as well as I belive trading is like a mirror to your soul and your flaws will be exposed

A small new ETF opportunity will be discussed in cybersecurity & then a new batch of news of the week will be shared

Let’s begin

OUTLINE

1. BTC Weekly

2. BTC 6K = 60K?

3. BTC H12
   -

4. ETH Weekly

5. ETH vs M1SL

6. ETH Daily

7. ETH H4
   -

8. USDT.D
   -

9. HYPE

10. SOL
    -

11. The Fear of Losing
    -

12. A strong bull market forgives almost every mistake
    -

13. CIBR
    -

14. News

ABBREVIATIONS that I use at the end

1) BTC Weekly

Last week was another rather nothing burger but we did manage to sweep the Weekly high of the current last bearish Weekly candle and touched some juicy liquidity there

The inner liquidity on the downside is now sitting beneath the last two Weekly candle lows at 61830$ & 61314$

Do we still get that mid june high squeeze? Hard to guess. ETH already got it, so have plenty of major alts such as SOL, LINK or AVAX. At the same time we know there is a persistent spot sell pressure right now whether from Strategy or others so it is not required, I’m still leaving myself the option though in my head

The plan however remains the same. Very bearish beneath 67,5K, neutral to slightly bullish above

Till then we gotta let the market do its thing

2) BTC 6K = 60K?

One chart that I did not mention yet or haven’t considered & one that I definitely do no want to see playing out either but one that I have to mention as a possibility to consider as well is the once again the similarity between the 2018 & present

I’ve already mentioned how there is a close psychological bond between that time & present as I lived through that time day by day but when I looked closely it looks even more scary

The first real capitulation happened on Feb 6th! The market drop from 20K to 6K very quickly aka -70% drop & then bounced siginificantly

And this time, it also happened on Feb 6th! Precisely the bottom, although this time not at 6K but 60K! And we also bounced significantly from that Feb low, only to come back to it a few months later, specifically in June and form an inverted H&S pattern at the Feb low once more!

Notice how the June low precisely matches! That is nuts.

Read more

Hello everyone & welcome to the 107th publication of the Nest!

In this release as the name suggest I will be primarly focusing on teaching you the power of options trading! We will start with absolute basics which will still be quite extensive because I understand how hard it might feel when you first open up futures but I belive after carefully reading through todays teaching, it will become much simpler to understand

Eventually the goal would be that it becomes part of the tools that you use to properply execute this market and learn how to hedge your positions or speculate on moves without the risk of liquidation or stop wicks

The past week did not bring much of a movement in crypto so this could be a great spot to learn how to do so! But obviously we will do our typical breakdown

Then we’ll have a quick look at CPI which is releasing tomorrow and what to expect, slightly discuss Central Bankers accumulating Gold & the opportunity behind & also have a slight look at Meta again!

Let’s discuss

OUTLINE

1. BTC Weekly

2. BTC Deleverage

3. BTC H12

4. BC H4

5. BTC Net Realized Profit/Loss
   —-

6. ETH Weekly

7. ETH Daily

8. ETH H4
   —-

9. US CPI & Oil

10. MSTR vs BTC
    —-

11. Options trading 101!

12. Options in practice!
    —-

13. Gold

14. Meta
    —-

15. News
    
    

    ABBREVIATIONS that I use at the end

1. BTC Weekly

   The past week on BTC was indecisive. The market started to wick down straight on Monday after Saylor announced that he sold 3,6K BTC but got immediately bought up by the end of the day, following by a two week sell-off, only to come back to the highs again when it look as if we will be breaking higher up, only to reject during a weekend once again, closing the week where it started
   
   Bigger indecision, not much new we can derive from it right now, from what we already discussed in the past one
   
   It still stands, that we remain in a bearish trend with a major demand lost which is now turned to a supply.
   
   A sweep of 67K is possibly for a double retest of that supply but not required.
   
   Expectation is further drop lower in this bearish trend but understanding the possibility of a inverse top three drives bottom pattern which however must be sealed with a reclaim of that 67K level which would put us into a neutral zone to slightly bullish zone.

   

   ---

2. BTC Deleverage
   
   I was sharing this chart earlier today on X but let me give a few additional thoughts to it.
   
   Lots of people currently are not counting with the possibility that we could drop lower realistically in their positioning & invalidations and that 60K must be the bottom because whatever reason.

Read more

Hello everyone & welcome to the 106 release of the Nest! The 2nd one on Substack where we are moving going forward so do not forget to re-subscribe over there (must be a paid subscribtion)

Today we gonna discuss lots of the important macro closes such as the 6 Months, Quarterly & Monthly on both BTC & ETH and what context we can draw from them.

We are going to also look at the OTHERS chart that scarily resembles the 2018 bear market as I’ve been through it live day by day.

We also just got a fresh news that Strategy has turned to what I was discussing and that is unwinding their Bitcoins, now at a REALIZED LOSS!

There was also a new in regards to the launch of a new stablecoin issuer - Open USD with a ticker $OUSD - not yet live but with plans of doing so in the future and how it challenges the duopoly of Tether & mainly Circle as the only publicly traded stablecoin issuer so far.

As it is a new month I’m also sharing an update in my positioning.

Let’s discuss!

OUTLINE

1. BTC H2 & Quarterly

2. BTC Monthly

3. BTC Weekly

4. BTC Weekly MAs

5. BTC Bearish range

6. BTC Daily
   —-

7. ETH H2 & Quarterly

8. ETH Monthly

9. ETH Weekly

10. ETH Daily
    —-

11. OTHERS vs BTC 2018
    —-

12. MSTR unwinds their BTC

13. Chines Equities

14. Circle
    —-

15. My positioning
    —-

16. News
    
    ABBREVIATIONS that I use at the end

1. BTC H2 & Quarterly
   
   During the past week as I discussed we had so many important closes. We had a 6 months candle close, but also quarterly & Monthly!
   
   So it is important to discuss those & what they mean for the price
   
   The H1 candle closed truly horribly & we cannot sugar coat that in any regard. We did close beneath the prior cycle ATH deeply & if we were to repeat the prior cycle, then we are at least coming back down to retest the previous bearish 6M candle high at 48222$

   There is a slight bullish hopium here however, which is that in the past two cycles the market was bottomed after two consecutive bearish 6M candles!

However in 2014/2015 bear market there was a last & third 6M bearish candle, which resulted in another -50% sell-off after already being down -75%

So can we get a -50% drop after being down -50% already? Yes, it is a defo a current risk

And the Quarterly logically ain’t so convincing either. Matter of fact, we have never in the entire history of BTC closed below a Quarterly demand & mainly below a Quarterly demand that is inside of the prior cycle!

We did both. First we lost the Q1 25 demand & now we lost the Q2 of 24. This is truly not a good look and needs to be saved immediately but the chart is speaking clearly

Read more

In the past week, STRC plummeted additional 20% down to 70$ which for a preffered stock that is supposed to trade at par of 100$ for most of its time is a major trust issue, which imo won’t ever be restored, even if it were miraculously to recover.

And as expected, Strategy turned to diluting MSTR to raise cash, which has plummeted even more by 30% and broke down its two year support.

Things started to heat up & Saylor had to come out of hideout and do something. And so he did with a new week thread on X, and both STRC & MSTR bounced on Monday but BTC did not, as he also announced a “BTC monetization program” which in a corporate language means they will sell BTC.

And the voices are starting to be loud all over Reddit, X & other social media with people who thought were buying a risk-free yield generating product, now realizing their live savings are being lost.

AI continues its fairytale bull market, although the signs of a real bubble are starting to appear while both Gold & Silver had its deepest correction since 2015. Copper however remains very strong!

Kraken announces a strategic 15% acquisition of AAVE Labs as AAVE comes near to 100$ while a global bank says AAVE has a potential of reaching upto 3500$ by 2030

The Nest will also be transitioning to Substack through July & fully in August!

Let’s discuss

OUTLINE

0) Transition of the Nest
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1) BTC Weekly
2) BTC Volume
3) MSTR vs BTC
4) BTC Monthly
5) Unrealized Loss vs Realized Loss
6) BTC H12
---
7) ETH Weekly
8) ETH H12
9) USDT.D
---
10) Strategy
11) AAVE
12) The great cleansing - ADA,AVAX, DOT
---
13) Gold & Silver
14) Copper + FCX, TECK, SCCO
---
15) News

ABBREVIATIONS that I use at the end

0) Transition of the Nest

I have decided to transition the Nest onto Substack platform for a few reasons

The biggest one was that there was constantly some problems with someone not seeing the Nest, not getting it, it ending up in a spam folder or some issues like that. Constantly I had to deal with these technical issues that are beyond my reach. Transitioning to Substack should solve all of those issues

Another improvement on your guys side should be the accessibility of it, as Substack has all three solutions to Desktop, Phone & Email, just as it offers easy payment solution for you in both Monthly & Yearly plans with a discount.

Visibility of charts & text should also be better.

It also offers other features such as refferal program of the Nest just as group discounts and so forth.

Another add-on will be the option of writing comments beneath the Nest.

It’s gonna be a bit tougher transition & more costly solution for me but should be a way better for the user experience for all of you, and that is important.

This transition will take place slowly over the whole July, so that each of you has enough time to make the transition and does not pay twice for the same content. Then in August & forward the Nest will be only published on Substack.

Please start transitioning in the link below

Jackis' Nest

Weekly contextual breakdowns of financial markets, after a 12 years experience. BTC & ETH top down analysis, digital assets, stocks, commodities & bonds as well. Monthly portfolio allocation updates. Market psychology, risk management & teachings.

By JACKIS

1) BTC Weekly

Over the past two weeks BTC rejected from the Weekly supply which I told you is going to be reactive & we went to new lows in June again.

This is not a good Weekly close for the bulls but at the same time not the end of the world just yet. We closed below 60K aka the February low & just nearly the initial June sell-off low. The price is accepting beneath the supply again on the Weekly.

BUT technicaly we can still get bounce back from this. Similar story has played out at the top though. We first sweing failed the high & rejected, then went for the high one more time & closed just above the first ATH at 123 300$ but didn’t close above the new & second ATH at 124 400$. We swept it & then rejected.

So in order for us to get bullish here, we’d need to see the same, not rejection, but bullish pressure to the upside & reclaiming the supply which I discussed will be a problem & it was. We must flip 66K into a support. Simple as that.

Till then expecting the same bottom as the top is a guessing & given the current events happening with STRC, not worth bidding it. At least not yet in my eyes.

So in order to get bullish we must see price level reclaims.

Until then the bias remains bearish and we are in a capital protection mode. Yes I’m trying hunt some shorts and already got some juicy one (X sub content) but that is not the primary goal of course, rather just a bonus. I hope that approach is understandable

Bitcoin also had its first Weekly close beneath the 200 Weekly SMA for the first time in 2,5 years! This historically has meant a great discounted levels, sometimes a touch of it even a bear market bottom

Imo if so & if this was just a fake dop, it will reclaim it quickly & that 66-67K region

If not, it is likely to lead to a further sell-off

Read more

I named it one more to go, as it is one more to a significant 100th mark but also one more to go as we are just one more level to flip to “celebrate” in the crypto market imo

ETH to flip the resistance it’s been building up beneath for the past month and BTC partially already there but would love to see it flip 84K & Y/O as well so kind of more like a one more to go or “one more push higher” haha

In the meantime Nvidia pushes new highs and the AI sector keeps on driving the rally in the stock market. With that said, I’ll be discussing today why Berkshire Hathaway aka Warren Buffet remains to be more in cash than in equities & what we can learn from it + how we can use that information to our advantage

I also forgot to share my positioning in the prior monthly levels release so will share that today. With no further due, let’s start!

OUTLINE

1) BTC Weekly
2) BTC EUR
3) BTC Daily
---
4) ETH Weekly
5) ETH Daily
6) ETH/BTC
---
7) Stablecoin dominance
---
8) BRK.B
---
9) Solana
10) TRX
11) JUST
12) Monad
---
13) My positioning
---
14) News

ABBREVIATIONS that I use at the end

1) BTC Weekly

We had a truly great Weekly candle yet again in the past week, as we have managed to close the week above the November 25 low & also inside the Weekly inefficiency & also the past three weekly candle highs

The past week (as we will scale down TFs too), has further confirmed the reclaim to me on BTC & its strength (for now mainly BTC and ofc a few alts but not ETH) and this should eventually lead to that macro confirmation above 100K.

Read more

This time on a Tuesday because I had unexpected news that my best RL friend had a newborn & there is a strong tradition in Czech to celebrate that :D Apologies for that

Checking the market now, and although we are still rather slowly grinding higher up, we are getting some really important level reclaims once again.

The broader alt market, while rather lagging, is also slowly turning which is good to see, hopefully catches up even more soon & we are also getting some earlier breakouts perhaps, showing the way forward

Stocks remain to hold above ATHs as the tech, still mainly driven by AI adoption & CAPEXes reaching new highs this year once more, is leading the market again. The broader stock market however also rather slowly lagging behind for now trying to catch up. That however sets the environment which is favorable for the risk imo

The US blockade of the Gulf of Oman remains and is longer than expected. That is still causing the Oil volatility mentioned but the VIX remains stable

We also gotten a really strong Monthly closes across the board as April delivered exactly as foreseen so let’s jump straight to those!

OUTLINE

1) BTC Monthly
2) BTC Weekly
3) BTC Daily
4) BTC Ranges
5) BTC CME
---
6) ETH Monthly
7) ETH Weekly
8) ETH Daily
9) ETH CME
10) Stablecoin Dominance
---
11) SPX
12) CRCL
13) BABA
---
14) Pepe
15) ETH/BTC
16) Morpho
---
17) News

ABBREVIATIONS that I use at the end

Subscribe now

1) BTC Monthly

Our projection for the month of April has been that historically it should be the best month for Stocks & that ideally we want to see the April Monthly candle closing above the April 25 low & above the March high and fair to say we got EXACTLY that!

Now with this Monthly close, it settles the Monthly reclaim for me as it was really bullish and it should lead to much higher prices in the upcoming months and no shorter than the red supply above around ~ $110K

Read more