In a nutshell, it refers to a political leader being able to make a major policy departure if they’ve built up strong ideological bona fides that run counter to that move.

If x is doing y, it must be a good idea. Nixon was an ardent anti-communist.

Now, Susan Holt’s no Richard Nixon, thankfully.

But last week’s natural gas announcement was her boldest departure so far, and perhaps the biggest political risk of her mandate.

There were immediate questions and concerns, and Holt was clear her government will back off if its review doesn’t get satisfactory answers.

Hanging over this is, of course, the spectre of the Rexton protests of 2013.

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Shale gas has a long political history spanning three-and-a-half mandates of three premiers:

• David Alward wanted us to say yes.

• Brian Gallant said no.

• Blaine Higgs (2018-2020) was frustrated trying to get to yes.

• Blaine Higgs (2020-2024) kept talking about it but the economics were tricky.

Can Susan Holt succeed where Higgs did not? The next five months will tell the tale.

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Is there a business case for shale gas? The CBC’s Oliver Pearson has got you covered here.

Holt’s announcement took place two days before the second big bit natural gas news last year, the provincial approval of the Tantramar gas plant.

And with Thursday’s deficit update sandwiched between the two gas announcements, you can see how all these things could start to fit together.

I tried to do that on Friday on the special summer edition of the Shift New Brunswick political panel, and on Café Politique, bien sur:

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Begun, The Trade War Has

All the provincial news just about eclipsed our big, existential national story — that we are now fully, completely into the trade was with the U.S.

Premier Holt spoke on it Monday but with few specifics about new support for New Brunswick companies. Mark Carney announced counter-tariffs set to go into effect Sept. 8, including on seafood.

That last one would have a big impact on New Brunswick. Dominic LeBlanc acknowledged it would be a “pain point,” but late Wednesday night came this news:

Much relief followed in Atlantic Canada.

Meanwhile, Trump’s top trade negotiator spoke to the CBC’s Rosemary Barton and indicated the U.S. was ready to compromise on language and culture demands.

Dominic LeBlanc saw Green’s comments as as opening.

Canada’s lead negotiator gave her version of the breakdown to CBC’s The House.

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In Other News

That still wasn’t all the news last week:

• Holt also announced a cell phone ban in provincial schools.

• A document obtained by The Globe and Mail, and then by CBC News, suggests an explosives factory is on its way to Belledune.

• Nova Scotia took another step forward with an upgrade of transmission links with New Brunswick.

• The CBC’s Silas Brown had a story about why you’re seeing so much road repair work this summer along what we oldsters still think of as the “toll highway.”

The Calendar

Today is federal by-election day in three ridings across the country. The next big date on Carney’s calendar — and ours — is Sept. 8, the day Canada’s counter-tariffs kick in. Are we going to get a TACO?

The deadline for candidates to file their paperwork for the New Brunswick Green Party leadership race is also coming up on Sept. 12. The actual vote is Dec. 5.

Québec will have a national provincial election on Oct. 5 that is suddenly looking like less of a sure thing.

The New Brunswick legislature starts a new session on Oct. 20; the PC party will have chosen its new leaders three days earlier. U.S. congressional mid-term elections, which could have an impact on Trump’s trade posture toward Canada, are Nov. 3.

Welcome and Thank You

Welcome to you if you’re a new subscriber to this newsletter, especially if you have come here at my urging from BlueSky, where I am no longer religiously posting links to every story I write. This is the place for that and for all kinds of other fun links.

These hinge moments come around from time to time:

(One of the amazing things about the above exchange was that, in order to rebut Turner’s arguments, Mulroney downplayed the important of his free-trade agreement, calling it a mere “commercial document.”)

Mark Carney’s rationale for walking away Friday night? He said the U.S. wanted too much.

Earlier Friday I read the comments by Steve Verheul in this story. They struck me as very important and ominous; it looks like Verheul was on to something.

Here’s one example of how the move will be seen globally (gift link).

This renders moot the effort I spent on Friday trying to figure out whether Premier Susan Holt’s planned sequencing — a close look at any deal first, restocking of U.S. booze later — contradicted what Carney was asking for, at least given what other premiers were saying. Oh well.

Her position got a lot of support on the socials, not surprisingly. Here’s what that recent Abacus Data poll found:

Holt’s details-then-bourbon sequencing did, in fact, match what the premiers and Carney talked about earlier in the week, according to Carney himself.

If you’re pedantic like me, you can watch how the PM answered (at 32:59 below) after he was asked if the non-instant restocking by some premiers gummed up the deal.

So, what next?

Maritime premiers are backing Carney.

New Brunswick does have other leverage. Last year I reported on our electricity sales to northern Maine, and on Saturday, Carney appeared to rattle that sabre when he pointed out the U.S. reliance on Canadian energy. “I don’t think they want us to stop sending it,” he said. Holt said last year she wanted to let “cooler heads prevail” on that, rather than “lash out.”

Does this weekend’s events change anything? We’ll see.

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Less Green for Green

One of the two most compelling potential candidates for the provincial Green Party leadership, Kevin Arseneau, announced last week he is happier on the farm.

That leaves Megan Mitton as the other obvious hopeful who has yet to make an announcement.

But as I’ve said before, the Greens are, by definition, idealists. A less “obvious” candidate may also come forward.

Meanwhile, former premier Shawn Graham got a little green himself as he continued his comeback tour last week at an Environmental Trust Fund announcement where he shared the spotlight with a little frog.

The story, though, is that the fund is being depleted as a result of a Higgs government decision, and the Holt Liberals have yet to come up with a new one.

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Café Politique? Why yes. Note: this aired before talks collapsed Friday night.

In Other News

• Health Minister John Dornan commented on the lack of French-language appointments available at the new virtual care system.

• N.B. Power’s CEO got a raise.

• A high-profile independent MLA from just across the border in Nova Scotia is the subject of speculation she may have a future in federal politics.

• That other big deal — the Québec-Newfoundland and Labrador agreement on Churchill Falls hydro power — did get done. Québec’s premier says she needs to get re-elected for the deal to be implemented.

The Calendar Fills In

A major new date to add to the calendar: Tuesday, Sept. 8. That’s the date Canada’s counter-tariffs will kick in on U.S. products, unless something changes. There are two potential TACO Tuesdays between now and then.

In New Brunswick, we are still waiting for the first-quarter budget update before the end of the month. We’ll see if the collapse of trade talks leads to any revisions.

The end of August, Aug. 31 specifically, is also the date for three federal by-elections.

The deadline for candidates to register in the above-mentioned Green Party leadership race is Sept. 12, with the actual vote on Dec. 5. The new PC leader will crowned Oct. 17, three days before the legislature’s new session begins.

You may notice my byline was absent from last week’s stories linked above. I was working on a special project that I will be bringing to you in the fall.

Thanks for reading and enjoy these final days and weeks of summer.

But it represents an important trend in New Brunswick education.

Enrolment in private schools is growing in the province; last year, there were more new students in private schools than in public schools.

What’s driving it? I explore that — and what one Progressive Conservative Party leadership candidate is proposing — in a new story published this morning.

For the video version, click here.

This issue came up briefly during the Policy 713 fight in 2023; I reported at the time that the Higgs government would not pursue what Don Monahan is proposing now.

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From Minimum Wage to Maximum Wage

My stories last week moved from high salaries to low salaries over five days. On Friday I took a look at the Holt government’s consultations on the minimum wage, including how it is set.

Earlier, I reported on the latest court filing in Conservative MP Mike Dawson’s legal bid to reject his April 1 salary increase.

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Poll Alert!

Abacus Data published a New Brunswick political poll on Friday, and it’s a doozy.

The extensive list of questions pulled together a number of trends and issues that put in perspective some of the other polling results we saw in the spring.

Here are my key takeaways from the poll.

If you want to take a deeper dive into all the numbers, click here.

Speaking of the next election, there’s some buzz out there about the PC party starting the process of nominating candidates this summer — more than two years before the scheduled election date, and before the party has a new leader.

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Deal or No Deal?

As you read this on Monday, Dominic LeBlanc, Canada’s minister for U.S. trade, is probably still in Washington, trying to hammer out an agreement that would head off new tariffs scheduled to take effect on Wednesday in return for some concessions by Canada.

There’s been no shortage of coverage: one story said Canada still wasn’t satisfied it could sign onto what the Americans were proposing; Trump’s guy was warning us against retaliation, and the feds were quietly telling the provinces to be ready to restock U.S. booze in case a deal was struck.

Needless to say, this will be the story to watch in the coming week — though another potential deal on the verge of completion is pretty important, too.

In Other News

• There was good news upriver at the regional hospital in Waterville.

• Another fight is unfolding over a proposed wind farm, this time near Sussex.

• New Brunswick’s new virtual care service is struggling to offer appointments in one official language.

• The annual meeting of eastern premiers and New England governors was marked by a high number of no-shows.

• Ottawa came through with money to replace a very pretty trail bridge in the Acadian Peninsula.

• Cannabis N.B. has a new strategic plan.

On Café Politique Friday, we looked at the problems with French service from Foundever, the minimum wage review, the funding for that trail bridge and the question of when U.S. booze might be put back on N.B. Liquor shelves:

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Book Corner

Here’s a great book for political enthusiasts: Bernie for Burlington, by Dan Chiasson. Like the Stephen Harper book I recommended last year, this is an example of how good political writing, full of interesting ideas, can (or should) transcend your own particular leanings.

It’s not a exactly a political biography — it’s a portrait of an iconoclastic and persistent politician and the city, and state, that spawned his very different kind of politics.

One more bit of recommended reading for you, on a topic that’s always current in New Brunswick.

The Calendar

As noted above, Wednesday is the day Donald Trump’s new, higher tariffs on Canada are set to take effect. Will they? We’ll know soon. Today is reportedly the day for a Quebec-Newfoundland and Labrador announcement on Churchill Falls hydro power.

So we’re in for a fairly intense period of political news before August is over. We are also expecting the first-quarter budget update from the Holt government before the end of month, and Aug.31 is also the day for three federal by-elections.

The next leadership race deadline in New Brunswick is Sept. 12, when anyone running for the Green Party’s top job must submit their paperwork. That vote will happen Dec. 5. The new PC leader will crowned Oct. 17, three days before the legislature’s new session begins.

Do you have any more summer travel planned? Here’s a song for you.

Thanks for reading and please share this newsletter with anyone you know who might be interested but not aware of it.

The CBC reported, following Dominic LeBlanc’s latest trip to Washington, that Canada could halt booze bans in return for tariff relief ahead of a full CUSMA renegotiation.

Of course, the actual shelving decision — decisions, truly — would remain with the provinces.

Perhaps Minister LeBlanc will channel the spirit of Daniel Webster and Lord Ashburton and their remarkable achievement, which had its anniversary last Friday.

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Decision Time for the Greens

The Greens set Dec. 5 for their leadership vote and last week the party reminded us that the deadline for candidates to register is Sept. 12.

That’s coming up pretty soon, and that means the potential contestants — which include Tantramra MLA Megan Mitton and former Kent North MLA Kevin Arseneau — don’t have a lot of time to make up their minds.

(This isn’t to be confused with the federal Green leadership race.)

We talked about the Green race and other things on Friday’s Café Politique:

Another Café topic was comments last week by union leaders who represent workers in the child protection system. Not surprisingly, Kelly Lamrock’s bracing report in the spring, which seemed to spur MLAs from all parties into action, has had an impact on that workforce.

Speaking of MLAs, Bill Oliver’s AI-enhanced speech continued to reverberate last week. CBC’s The House had a discussion with three MPs about the role of technology for elected officials, including the use AI and remote voting.

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In Other News

• The city that was once the centre of the New Brunswick universe appears poised to drop to third place in population.

• Donald Trump is coming for the whales.

• Alberta separatists are preparing to lay out their blueprint for the mechanics and costs of independence. It’ll be interesting to see how leaving Canada will make it easy to get their crude to the world.

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The Calendar

The next deadline on the political calendar is this coming Friday, Aug. 14, the deadline for registering to vote in the Progressive Conservative leadership race. Registrants can sign up indicating who they plan to support, though they don’t have to. Still, we may start to hear some buzz on Friday about who has the upper hand in sign-ups. The leadership vote result will be announced Oct. 17.

As noted above, Green Party leadership candidates have to register by Sept. 12 and their vote will be on Dec. 5.

August is usually the month for a first-quarter budget update from the New Brunswick government as well as the audited statements on the past fiscal year. So we may get a couple of new deficit numbers soon.

Three federal by-elections will take place Aug. 31; we’re now up to eight by-elections scheduled or pending in total.

The Legislature resumes sitting on Oct. 20 for the start of Premier Susan Holt's third of four sessions during her mandate. We’re almost at the halfway point already.

Thanks for reading this abbreviated, deep-summer, news-light political newsletter — your interest and attention is important and I appreciate it.

New Brunswick’s Progressive Conservatives aren’t at the cannibalization stage yet, but their leadership race has taken a nasty turn this July.

After attending the leadership debate in St-Léonard and watching the one in Saint John, I put together this look at the tensions coming to the surface in the contest between Don Monahan and Daniel Allain.

All the old lions were out in St-Léonard: Jean-Pierre Ouellet, Jeannot and Kim Volpé, Percy Mockler and others.

Whether the new leader can rally them all, and others, after this October will be one of the keys to the party winning or losing in 2028.

Higgs’s former chief of staff Louis Léger has been thinking about party unity too. He laid out his view of PC dynamics — and what it takes to win in New Brunswick — in a post over at Lisa Hrabluk and Gina Miller’s Substack newsletter:

Side Walks

New Brunswick Politics Isn't Volatile; Its Arithmetic

Today, we’re happy to publish a new piece from Louis Léger, reflecting on his 40+ years in provincial and national politics, and what the balance successful leaders must strike to succeed in New Brunswick…

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a month ago · 8 likes · J. Louis Leger

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In Other News

• The Holt government made a big mining announcement near Bathurst. It’s an important milestone for the province’s mining strategy but it’s still just a first step.

• A batch of government fees went up on Aug. 1. Find out which ones here. (This newsletter remains free.)

• Provinces including New Brunswick are asking Ottawa to clarify whether it will keep the RCMP in the business of provincial policing. You may recall that in 2023, the Higgs government ruled out setting up a provincial police force because of the price tag.

• Irving-owned Ocean Steel got some federal funding for its pivot to new markets; owner John Irving nonetheless sounded an optimistic note that the company — and the province — will survive Trump’s tariffs.

• Our next-door neighbour Québec is inviting other provinces to join its carbon pricing market; a U.S. state announcing this summer it would do so.

• PC MLA Bill Oliver become a global viral phenomenon for all the wrong reasons. It’s the latest — but not the only — example of online foolishness this summer.

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We talked mining, Bill Oliver’s speech, and my story on climate change coming for a Lamèque home on Friday’s Café Politique:

The Calendar

The calendar is pretty light at the moment. New Brunswickers have until Aug. 14 to register to vote in the above-mentioned PC leadership race; balloting will be by mail and the winner will be announced Oct. 17. The legislature begins its new session the following Tuesday, Oct. 20. The Green Party will choose its next leader on Dec. 5.

Thanks for reading this abbreviated, news-light edition of the newsletter. Be sure to share it with anyone you know who’s looking for a weekly wrap-up of political news.

Because the crisis is slow-moving, government programs are a poor fit.

Witness the home of Renald and Mabel Guignard:

Their property has been eroding over time, with metres and metres of rock, grass and sand washed into the Gulf of St. Lawrence anytime there’s a major storm.

My story on the Guignard home and the local MLA’s efforts to secure funding to move the house closer to the road is online this morning.

There’s a video, too, beautifully shot by the CBC’s Michael Heenan.

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Token Support

Who says July is quiet? The Progressive Conservative leadership race sprang to life last week.

First came the complaint from Daniel Allain’s campaign against his opponent, Don Monahan, about a token-for-votes system that Monahan set up at the campground and drive-in theatre he owns in Sussex. Monahan had an explanation when we went to see him on Monday.

Then there were the two debates, Tuesday in St-Léonard and Thursday in Saint John. I attended the St-Léonard debate along with about 50 PC supporters.

I’ll have some analysis on the debates and the tone of the campaign in the coming week.

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In Other News

• Miramichi city council put on hold a proposed bylaw that would have allowed data centres in the city.

• Another iconic covered bridge has shut down.

• Wolastoqey First Nations are speaking out against Ottawa’s closure of a facility they see as essential to saving the Atlantic salmon.

• On last week’s This is New Brunswick podcast, the CBC’s Jordan Gill took an affectionate look at many of the small museums in local communities around the province and what their future holds.

Trade and Tariffs

It was a week, Trump-wise, with the U.S. president announcing new tariffs against Canada (and many other countries). The CBC’s Washington reporter (and proud Johner) Mike Crawley had this look at the tariffs.

The news landed as Canada’s premiers gathered in Charlottetown for their summer meeting, turning the gathering into a Trump strategy session. Diverging views of Canada’s strategy? Maybe, maybe not.

At the same time, nine premiers agreed to further open up interprovincial trade in alcohol.

Trump, trade and the PC leadership race were our topics Friday on Radio-Canada’s Café Politique.

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Here’s the menu I mentioned on the panel, from a restaurant in Shippagan, that offers customers two craft beer lists — one from the northern part of the province, one from the south. There may be psychological and cultural barriers between the two regions, but at least the beer flows freely.

The menu raises an interesting question, though: is Miramichi part of northern or southern New Brunswick? From a Shippagan perspective, it’s part of the south. But is it? This would be a good topic for you to weigh in on in the comments below.

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Last thing from last week: an appreciation of one of Canada’s shortest-serving prime ministers that I enjoyed reading.

Jonathan Malloy on Canadian Politics

The Man From High River

This newsletter tries not to take specific positions. Yet there is one opinion about which I am unabashed: my love of the Rt. Hon. Charles Joseph Clark, the most Canadian of Canadians…

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a month ago · 13 likes · 6 comments · Jonathan Malloy

The Calendar

The next deadline in the PC leadership race is Aug. 14. That’s when anyone hoping to vote in the contest must register with the party. The vote itself will happen by mail with a winner announced Oct. 17.

The Green Party will choose its next leader on Dec. 5. And a sort-of deadline for that internal trade decision is Aug. 31.

Will the news keep coming for the rest of the summer? It’s been pretty busy so far. Be sure to subscribe to not miss any of the major political developments you need to know.

As I stood on the wharf in the former village of St-Raphaël-Sur-Mer last week, watching enormous waves crash over the breakers, I found myself humming this tune. Enjoy.

One of Canadian federalism’s defining irritants was the subject of the first-ever hearing convoked under the 2017 Canadian Free Trade Agreement.

Here’s my story on day one, when the company, Julmac Contracting, began presenting its case. And here’s the New Brunswick government’s argument on day two.

Day three was an abbreviated day; on Thursday the two sides submitted closing arguments, hot on the heels of an internal-trade report card.

A ruling is required within 45 days of Friday’s wrap-up, but the panel can give itself an extension.

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Also Hot This Summer

The Holt government promised during the spring that the transition to a new virtual care system on July 1 would go smoothly.

Last week, Health Minister John Dornan found himself explaining that “improvements are needed” to the service.

Dornan made claims about prescription renewal data that eVisit then refuted.

As I said on Café Politique on Friday, the Liberals have made health care their number one priority, and Dornan’s candour and credibility has been one of their biggest political assets on the issue. So there’s danger here for the government.

Another moment of note was N.B. Power’s declaration that it could proceed with the Tantramar gas plant without an Indigenous equity investment.

We’ll see if that’s correct legally, but politically, the Holt government has made clear its desire to see First Nations investment in major projects — so we’ll see if that becomes an issue here.

We touched on all of the above on your favourite French-language Friday morning political panel:

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In Other News

• The CBC’s Hannah Vogan reported that New Brunswick’s population dip is making the shortage for skilled trades worker worse than ever.

• Housing Minister David Hickey spoke about two failures in a housing horror story — one of them the government’s.

• A new report identified an “alarming” number of infant deaths related to unsafe sleep.

• In Nova Scotia, a former premier died last week, and the current office holder got a rough reception in Wolfville. Meanwhile, the province’s deficit appears headed for new heights.

• Taxpayers aren’t just going to help pay for Mark Carney’s new oil pipeline — they’re also going to pay oil producers to use it.

Polling Update

A few weeks back I rounded up some recent polling in New Brunswick that looked like trouble for the Holt Liberals.

While I was on vacation, however, Narrative Research released its numbers on New Brunswick voting intentions that showed better results for the premier and her team.

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Media News

We like our media talk here at Poitras on Politics, and here’s a big development: the last daily print newspaper in the province, L’Acadie Nouvelle, will produce dead-tree editions only twice a week starting this summer. The paper had been printing from Tuesdays to Saturdays.

And speaking of media, here’s an insightful piece about that old social media warhorse Twitter, and how the Graham Platner disaster in Maine may have been the product of a bit too much living online.

The Calendar Fills In

Two Progressive Conservative Party leadership debates are coming up this week, on Tuesday in St-Léonard and Thursday in Saint John. Tories choose their leader on Oct. 17.

Meanwhile, the Green Party set the date for their leadership vote: Dec. 5. That means both opposition parties in the legislature will have new leaders in place by the end of 2026.

As mentioned above, the deadline for a ruling in that internal trade case is Aug. 31, though the panel can extend it.

Where We’re At

Subscription numbers here are holding steady over the summer; I get the impression that every so often, someone subscribes and then decides the newsletter is not for them. That’s okay! You should still share it with anyone you think may like it.

And if you do like the newsletter — and would like to offer some feedback on what you see here — I would be happy to see what you have to say in the comment below.

The big story while I was away was, without doubt, the province’s transition to a new virtual care system. Here’s a story on how it was going after the first few days.

The province confirmed the switch to the new provider back in February; the deputy minister told MLAs at the time that Foundever had the “stronger bid,” and a few days later Premier Susan Holt — after initially “asking questions” about the change — said she backed it.

Stop and Listen

The slower news cycle gave the CBC’s Savannah Awde the time to put together a complete and compelling recap of Bobby’s story — the report by Kelly Lamrock that spurred some unusually quick action by the legislature.

If you tuned out this news when it was breaking, Savannah’s episode of CBC’s This is New Brunswick podcast will let you catch up and understand the whole thing in one sitting.

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In Other News

• The province resolved one local tourism controversy, but the resolution didn’t please everyone.

• Opponents of the Tantramar gas plant said they would go to court to try to reverse the Energy and Utilities Board approval of the project.

• A Moncton cancer researcher (and friend of federal cabinet minister Dominic LeBlanc) was appointed to the Senate.

• Clean-water advocates said they were anxious to see what the province would decide in its review of the Clean Water Act; at the same time a concrete seawall seems to have fallen between the cracks of provincial and local regulations.

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Say His Name

I took a brief break from vacation mode on July 2 to drop into the Radio-Canada building in Montreal to see some old acquaintances, and to finally meet in person someone I’ve come to “know” over the last few years: cameraman Jacques Poitras, whose emails I often receive in error, and who often receives mine.

We’ve learned to patiently forward misdirected emails to each other without rancour; my favourite was the one I got when he was shooting the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, an urgent note instructing him / me to be in the lobby of the hotel in 15 minutes to catch the shuttle to the next venue. (He made it.)

Trumpy Summer

It’s been a while since we truly obsessed about the U.S. president, hasn’t it?

Canada resolved one major issue last week, but the fate of CUSMA remains a day-by-day (or maybe, more accurately, year-by-year) thing.

Here’s a look at where the trade issue goes from here, and this piece (paywalled, but gift link should work) has a persuasively optimistic take on where things stand now.

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The Calendar

No sooner did the calendar clear than it started filling up again.

This week, a Canadian internal trade tribunal will hold the first-ever hearing into a complaint under the Canadian Free Trade Agreement, the deal provinces signed to lower trade barriers between jurisdictions. The complaint is against the New Brunswick government and I’ll be following closely.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s Progressive Conservative Party will hold two debates, on July 21 and 23, as part of its leadership race between Daniel Allain and Don Monahan. The new leader will be elected Oct. 17, twelve days after Québec’s provincial election and two days before Alberta’s sort-of independence referendum.

Thanks for Following Me

I know the news is slow right now, which makes me appreciate your interest even more. I hope this newsletter is still worth following.

I’m back in the office today and for the duration of the summer with a decent list of stories I want to get to, so stick with me and please share this newsletter with others who may want to subscribe. With the ongoing gutting of newsrooms, your attention is even more meaningful.

On Tuesday she reminded them that some unilingual francophones still have trouble getting basic services in their language, despite the Official Languages Act.

The committee of MLAs wrapped up two weeks of hearings around the province Friday, part of the Holt government’s review of the act.

Here’s the Radio-Canada story on Caissie’s appearance in Moncton, and here is a story filed by colleague Katelin Belliveau about another appearance before the committee.

The story Caissie told about the Miramichi hospital was timely because the province’s official languages commissioner had just issued two reports on other cases at the same facility.

As a postscript, here’s a photo I snapped when the committee broke on Thursday: one Liberal MLA and two PCs huddling with a committee resource person, quietly sorting out an issue.

Polarization? Maybe not.

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‘I Don’t Have a Good Answer’

The languages committee wasn’t the only process revealing things last week. The legislature’s social policy committee was also at work, featuring a difficult admission from a deputy minister.

Here’s Savannah Awde’s story from the second day of hearings.

And here is something else Kelly Lamrock wants you to know.

Minister Aglow

There’s New Brunswick’s energy minister, René Legacy, at a federal announcement in — Newmarket, Ontario?

Yes, that’s where Legacy’s federal counterpart, Tim Hodgson, unveiled the Carney government’s nuclear strategy, which calls for 10 new generating stations over the coming decades, including one outside Ontario underway by 2035.

Well, guess what: there’s only one other province with a nuclear power plant operating at the moment.

The Holt government said in May it planned to study the recommendation of new nuclear until next March, but last week Legacy was all but declaring it a go.

The problem: N.B. Power is not nearly as gung-ho. That’s in my story too.

It all made for plentiful cups of analysis on Friday’s Café Politique:

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In Other News

• We got new, more detailed data on access to primary care, expanding on the numbers Premier Susan Holt talked about in her State of the Province speech.

• The province is moving the goalposts on literacy.

• The new school lunch program has a downside in one school.

• The Emergency Measures Organization was called in to support the response to a surge in overdoses in Moncton.

• The Beaverbrook Art Gallery brought in a work that provoked a lot of people, once upon a time; a Conservative MP sighed.

• The Mark Carney-Danielle Smith carbon tax deal — the one Susan Holt recently embraced — means a planned carbon capture project in Alberta may not be viable.

• Carney bit the bullet and tackled a long-delayed renovation project — and I’m not talking about CUSMA.

Polling Corner

After a drought of public opinion research on New Brunswick politics for several months, we now have not one but three recent polls with results in the same ballpark.

All indicate potential trouble for the Holt Liberals.

First was the Angus Reid Institute poll a couple of weeks back showing 49-per-cent disapproval for the Holt government compared to 41-per-cent approval.

Then Porter O’Brien, a communications and lobbying firm in Fredericton, released a voter intention poll with the following numbers among decided voters: Liberals 43, PCs 39, Greens 13, others 5. The margin of error was four points, and 21 per cent of respondents were undecided. (Porter O’Brien has links to the current government, but Éric Grenier looked at their methodology and deemed it credible.) Regionally, the Liberals led strongly in Moncton and rural francophone areas, and narrowly in Fredericton and Saint John; they were far behind in rural anglophone areas.

Lastly, Narrative Research, which stopped releasing voter intention polls publicly a couple of years back, did release satisfaction numbers for the four Atlantic provincial governments. Their numbers for the Holt government: 35 per cent satisfied, 37 per cent dissatisfied, 27 per cent neutral.

Taken together, these numbers are not disastrous for the Liberals but they indicate at best a lack of enthusiasm for how the government is doing — even before the PCs have a new leader to put in front of voters as an alternative.

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Poetry Corner

This poem by a Canadian, about the United States, seemed appropriate to share this week with both Canada Day and the Fourth of July coming up.

&thropocene

Oh Americans

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a year ago · 5 likes · Gary Barwin

Kitts the Light Fantastic

CBC New Brunswick said goodbye last week to Colleen Kitts-Goguen, a long-time journalist with the corporation who wrapped up her decades of service as the interim host of Information Morning Fredericton. I’ll miss Colleen’s bookish wisdom and her care with words.

A Lighter Calendar

The provincial political calendar is delightfully free of entries for the immediate future. Canada Day, July 1, is one deadline in our CUSMA drama, the date by which the three countries must decide whether to extend the deal for another 16 years or subject it to annual reviews.

On the more distant horizon, we’ve got a Québec election Oct. 5, the New Brunswick PC leadership vote Oct. 17 and Alberta’s sort-of separation referendum Oct. 19.

A Week Off

I’m on vacation this week and I won’t be in a position to put together much of a newsletter for next Monday; I'll have a regular newsletter for you again on July 13.

But under the surface, the Progressive Conservative Party leadership race is stirring up a lot of drama.

Here’s my story from last Thursday on the state of the race.

Radio-Canada’s Nicolas Steinbach had his own report on the contest.

Unusually, two former premiers have expressed their preferences in the race. Most ex-leaders stay quiet in these contests, but not this time — another sign, perhaps, of the lingering tension within the party.

Here’s Blaine Higgs, caught on camera at a Monahan event back in April.

No big surprise there; Higgs made his thoughts clear about Allain last fall. Last week Higgs confirmed it, while another former PC premier endorsed Allain, as I reported in my story above.

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Health Link on the Move

We’ll see eventually whether it’s just a change to the org chart, but last week the Holt Liberals announced they were moving the N.B. Health Link program from the private sector to the public sector.

That’s the program that has maintained the list of New Brunswickers waiting to be attached to a primary care provider — though the precise number has been the source of considerable discussion.

Medavie, the private sector operator, has been a source of debate over its management of health care services for some time now.

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MLAs on the Move, Too

The legislature’s official languages committee was on the road last week, hearing from New Brunswickers as part of a review of the Official Languages Act.

Last week’s hearings were in northern, francophone regions of the province, in Grand Falls, Campbellton, Caraquet and Rogersville.

Somewhat related, here’s The New York Times with new research on bilingual brains.

We talked about the committee’s work, the PC leadership race and the June 12 Supreme Court of Canada ruling on the lieutenant-governor on Friday’s Café Politque:

Shift New Brunswick’s political panel is now officially on hiatus for the summer.

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In Other News

• The CBC’s Aidan Cox got new information on that chemical spill on the highway leading out of Fredericton — including that the province waited before disclosing what the material was.

• And look, there was also no public warning about an air quality incident in Saint John in May.

• It’s going to cost more to produce solar power in New Brunswick.

• Former lieutenant-governor Marilyn Trenholme Counsell died at age 92.

• On the climate change file, the CBC’s Ryan Snoddon took a closer look at a potentially major impact of climate change just offshore from the Maritimes, while Aaron Wherry updated the state of play on federal policy.

• Donald Trump mouthed off about CUSMA, but here’s an essential guide to what he actually can and can’t do.

The Calendar

Those hearings on the Official Languages Act come to southern New Brunswick this week. We should have clarity soon on what hearings we’ll see on Kelly Lamrock’s two recent reports; there’s still nothing official on the legislature calendar.

Summer should see lots of CUSMA talk, followed by a busy fall with the Québec election Oct. 5, the New Brunswick PC leadership vote Oct. 17 and Alberta’s referendum Oct. 19.

A Summer Connection

Stay subscribed this summer, even in the quiet times, to not miss any major New Brunswick political news.

Last week, for a story that I’ll have for you in the fall, I got to spend a couple of days in a beautiful part of the province with some very passionate people, one of whom I convinced to subscribe to this newsletter. I’m happy to have him here and I’m happy to have you here, too.

Polling has been scant in New Brunswick politics — public polling, at least — but last week the Angus Reid Institute delivered numbers that had everyone talking.

More respondents disapproved than approved (49-41) of the premier’s performance. It’s early for mid-mandate assessments, and we don’t know what led to these results, but they are not good news for the Liberals.

Read the full Angus Reid Institute release here, with links to detailed results and methodology.

As I mentioned on the Shift New Brunswick political panel Friday, this is not a poll of voting intentions. If that 49-per-cent disapproval split between two parties, 41 per cent would be enough to win. Parties have taken power with a lot less.

Still, interim PC leader Glen Savoie was in a good mood Friday.

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The session wrapped up with royal assent for more than two dozen bills, including one law that paves the way for promised legislation on pay equity in the private sector.

The story that got generated the most buzz from the legislature, however, wasn’t a bill but Premier Holt’s letter to Mark Carney on banning kids under 16 from social media — just before the feds introduced their bill.

Here’s a BBC story on how Australia’s ban works and here’s The New York Times on how it’s going so far.

One Standard to Rule Them All

In the 2024 election, Susan Holt said she wanted a more “robust” carbon price on big industrial emitters of greenhouse gases. Last May, after Mark Carney won the federal election on a platform that included keeping the federal pricing standard in place, Holt said she would move ahead with those changes.

Then came Carney’s energy deal with Alberta, which included a weaker and longer-time pricing standard that the prime minister quickly extended to other provinces.

And just like that, Holt’s campaign commitment was dropped.

My story linked above mentions N.B. Power had to pay more for its higher emissions in 2024, which brings us to CEO Lori Clark’s appearance at the legislature’s public accounts committee last week. PC MLAs including Rob Weir gave her a rough ride.

Lots of fodder for Shift and Café Politique:

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Beaulac’s Back

Back in March I took a look at three recent court rulings that might indicate a narrowing of the interpretation of New Brunswick language rights.

Well, guess what: Beaulac’s back.

Beaulac was a 1999 Supreme Court of Canada ruling that said language rights must be interpreted broadly, and on Friday the court invoked it repeatedly when it ruled that the Charter of Rights requires that New Brunswick’s lieutenant-governor be bilingual.

The court noted in its ruling that it was weighing in on some Charter provisions for the first time, and that the question of how the Charter interacts with Section 58 of the 1867 Constitution (which lays out the role of lieutenant-governors) was “an entirely novel one.”

Here’s a key excerpt:

This case caused some headaches for Premier Holt last year and the ruling may have broaden implications.

Wonky enough for you? Philippe Lagassé gets even wonkier here:

In Defence of Westminster

Bilingualism and the Nature of the Crown

The Supreme Court of Canada offered us a rare treat today: a decision that touches on the nature of the Crown. In Société de l’Acadie du Nouveau-Brunswick v. Canada (Prime Minister), the majority found that the Lieutenant Governor of New Brunswick must be bilingual, owing to section 16(2) of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, which holds that: “English…

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3 months ago · 5 likes · Philippe Lagassé

Speaking of the Crown and vice-regal representatives, did you catch the installation of Louise Arbour as the new Governor-General? I loved the performance of the Cowboys Fringants song La Reine by Sara Dufour. (And Sara Dufour loved doing it.)

In Other News

• The Holt Liberals signed a new contract with the province’s teachers but wouldn’t say how much it will cost.

• The government also unveiled new details about how the new virtual care service will work.

• A lot of New Brunswickers eligible for the new federal dental care plan didn’t get the service they needed.

• Agropur employees in Miramichi gave their perspective on the recent “reorganization” of the company’s operations.

• Pedestrians in Miramichi (and maybe the curious, too) have a new option for dealing with traffic headaches caused by the Centennial Bridge shutdown in Miramichi.

• A Liberal cabinet minister earned a degree at age 58.

• Talk about CUSMA is heating up again. It’s still causing headaches for businesses and Trump is threatening again to scrap it.

• There’s an election coming in Québec this fall, and this post has a great analysis of the uncertain state of the race:

Eric-Antoine Menard

Funambulist Premier Walks Electrified Sovereignty Fence

As the National Assembly rises for the last time before the October election, here is the state of play as I see it…

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3 months ago · 1 like · Eric-Antoine Menard

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The Calendar Opens Up

The legislature has adjourned for the summer. By the time it comes back in the fall, on Oct. 20, one of these two guys will be the new leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick.

I’ll have a story on the leadership race soon; this coming Friday June 19 is the deadline for candidates to meet the eligibility requirements.

Beyond that, there are public consultations by a legislative committee on the Official Languages Act coming up this week and next; as of today we are 17 days into the 30-day timeline established by the legislature to get hearings underway on Kelly Lamrock’s “Bobby” report, and maybe his “Alice” report too.

And then we’re into summer, with October looming as a busy month: the Québec election is Oct. 5 (at the latest), the New Brunswick PC leadership vote is Oct. 17 and Alberta’s referendum is Oct. 19.

Slimming Down

If you are new here, welcome! What I try to do in this newsletter is reproduce what I used to do on Twitter: share links that I think a New Brunswick audience will find interesting, mostly about politics, along with a few observations and other novelties here and there. Let me know what you think in the comments.

Things will get quieter politically in the province in the next few weeks, and this newsletter may get slimmer. But I’ll still be here most weeks this summer with all the essential links. Thanks for reading, and don’t forget to share.

I’m referring, of course, to the great Friends joke I’ve cited here before:

Here’s Oliver Pearson’s story on the protest.

And here is my farm-fresh analysis of whether the event will have any political impact, from this morning.

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‘Exceptional System Conditions’

That’s how N.B. Power explained what it called “adaptations” to its procedures when it responded to Auditor-General Paul Martin’s scathing report about its Tantramar gas plant project.

Coming less than a week after the Energy and Utilities Board gave the green light to the project’s financial arrangement, Martin’s report made it clear the political debate about the plant is not over. Erica Butler’s story is here. My video is here.

Martin also made headlines with examinations of student literacy and tourism grants.

The literacy report came a day after the Holt government released new education plans for both the anglophone and francophone sectors.

Some superintendents said the plans could help address the poor results.

But speaking of reading …

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Cooner or Later

Green Party leader David Coon turns 70 later this year and he revealed this week that it’s the right time for him to step down as head of the party he took to unprecedented success in the legislature.

I could be mistaken, but I don’t think any non-traditional party has ever won two or more seats in three consecutive New Brunswick elections.

We talked about all of the above on Café Politique on Friday; Shift New Brunswick’s political panel is, alas, not online.

In Other News

• Kelly Lamrock was out with another devastating report last week.

• The province held an event to promote the school lunch program it will roll out this fall.

• The Toronto Star reported Friday that Health Canada has started paying more attention to glyphosate. (Gift link; I hope it works.)

• Miramichi-Grand Lake Conservative MP Mike Dawson went to Federal Court to force the House of Commons to let him reject his recent pay increase.

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The Political Calendar Fills Up

June isn’t going to go quietly. The legislature adjourns Friday, but before that happens, N.B. Power will appear at the public accounts committee (on Thursday) to respond to Paul Martin’s report.

Meanwhile, the clock is ticking on that vote to start committee hearings on Kelly Lamrock’s “Bobby” report; MLAs set a 30-day countdown back on May 29, meaning by June 28 (which is a Sunday). And the Official Languages committee of the legislature also has a packed schedule from June 16 to 26.

You must know the rest by heart by now: the deadline for Progressive Conservative party leadership candidates to confirm their eligibility is June 19. The new leader will be elected Oct. 17. The Alberta referendum is two days after that.

‘Packed With [Shareable] News’

I appreciated this comment on last week’s newsletter: “This week's update is packed with interesting news.” Unlike other social platforms, there’s no fiddling with URLS here — the links take you to real stories by real journalists. Every time you share this newsletter, you’re helping to bring important political reporting to more eyeballs. I appreciate every click, every share and every subscription.

Last week had a lot of both. It’s hard to choose (see?) where to start.

We finally got the Holt government’s response to the N.B. Power review panel. The action plan put off some of the toughest, most complicated choices.

One decision, to replace the existing public intervener role with an energy consumer advocate, did get some good reviews. (If you prefer audio, I talked about that on Shift New Brunswick, too.)

The most consequential N.B. Power decision last week, though, was surely the Energy and Utilities Board’s decision to approve the financial arrangement for the Tantramar natural gas plant. It’s not the final, final word but it’s a major step.

The Supreme Court of Canada was making choices last week, too.

On Thursday the court chose not to hear an appeal by the Wolastoqey nations excluding private land from their title claim for ownership.

But the issue may not be completely resolved.

The top court decided it will hear another appeal, on the constitutionality of closing two provincial courthouses in Caraquet and Tracadie.

As I’ve reported before, that seemingly mundane case is part of a trio of legal challenges with big stakes.

Choosing to Move

Kelly Lamrock’s choices made waves last week.

As I said on the Shift New Brunswick political panel, if Lamrock didn’t exist we’d have to invent him. He knows how to have an impact and he knows how to apply pressure on politicians.

He started on Monday with a forceful report, which elicited a non-committal response.

Then he came back Thursday with an even more powerful account of the events leading to one teenager’s death. You simply must read the story or watch the video by the CBC’s Savannah Awde.

Friday came the legislature’s choice.

MLAs from all parties agreed to speed up public hearings on Lamrock’s findings, ensuring they will not fade from the public eye too fast.

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… And Still More Choices

The Holt Liberals also rolled out their long-awaited property tax changes, and signalled that an inquiry on systemic racism, including the treatment of Indigenous people in the justice system, will happen.

It was a challenge for this week’s political panels to squeeze everything in, but we did our best.

In Other News

• A New Brunswick man was sentenced for violating COVID-19 border restrictions back in 2020.

• N.B. Liquor plans to save us from our own confusion.

• Prime Minister Mark Carney said the Clarity Act won’t apply to Alberta’s looming referendum; Premier Susan Holt weighed in on the turmoil.

• There were some astonishing renovations at the Saskatchewan legislature that you really will have to read about to believe.

• There are changes coming to Radio-Canada’s news coverage of New Brunswick.

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A Climate Elegy

The climate is still changing, though the impetus to address it through government policy is clearly waning.

The CBC’s David Thurton filed this elegiac story that may mark the end of an era, for now.

Whether to be a climate optimist remains a live question but here is one little whisper of positivity (New York Times gift link).

Brent Taylor, 1959-2026

One of the more thoughtful and interesting members of the legislature I’ve interviewed died suddenly last month at the age of 66.

Brent Taylor was elected as a Confederation of Regions MLA in 1991 and went on to do a few other interesting things after the 1995 election swept COR out of the legislature.

There are many New Brunswickers who detested Taylor for comments he made about bilingualism as a COR MLA. I had many conversations with him years later, and he was always generous with his time and keen to chat thoughtfully and analytically about the workings of parties, caucuses and the legislature. That made him a key source for my first book, and just a few months ago I interviewed him again for my next book — another enlightening exchange.

Brent brought that same thoughtfulness to the Commission on Legislative Democracy that he sat on from 2003 to 2005. I for one am grateful for elected officials who think critically and reflect candidly on their role in our institutions.

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The Calendar

June is here! We are closing in on the end of the legislative session on June 12, but politics will not go quiet on that day. The house’s committee on official languages will hold two weeks of hearings from June 16 to 26, and, as noted above, the social policy committee has to get in motion before the end of June as well.

The deadline for Progressive Conservative party leadership candidates to confirm their eligibility is June 19. The new leader will be elected Oct. 17, and two days after that is the Alberta referendum.

Choose to Share. Choose to Subscribe.

You’ve made a choice too — to subscribe to this newsletter and devote some of your valuable attention to coverage of New Brunswick politics. This newsletter was made for weeks like the one we just had, so thank you for being here.

You can also choose to let your friends and colleagues know that this newsletter is available. It’s easy and it’s free, and it arrives in inboxes every Monday morning at 7:45 a.m.

The committee is meeting in public as part of its review of the Official Languages Act. As I explained in last week’s story, holding these discussions out in the open is a bit of a novelty.

Back in 2012 a committee of MLAs reviewed the act, but not in public. The opposition Liberals were in favour of the secrecy until they were against it.

Now it’s 2026, and not only are the Liberals holding these hearings in public, they’re taking them on the road:

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There are a lot of suggestions before the committee already, including proposed changes to the act regarding nursing homes and municipalities.

I had to miss Café Politique on Friday, but here’s the episode. Unfortunately there’s no link for Shift’s Friday political panel.

If I had been around for this week’s panel, I might have observed that language issues are never far from the surface in New Brunswick, no matter who is in office or how sympathetic they may be to the topic.

Interested in digging in more? Here’s a story I did a while back on how a key constitutional amendment broadened language rights in New Brunswick, and here’s a more recent story on how recent court decisions may have narrowed the interpretation of those rights.

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Hot Climate Summer

Forget the frost. It’s going to be a hot, dry summer. And it’s not too early to get ready.

Fortunately the province has acquired four of these babies to help tackle wildfires.

You may recall an FPL aircraft purchase was at the heart of this story from me about how a classic New Brunswick government-industry symbiosis allowed information being kept secret.

In Other News

• We heard from the Carleton County mom who had a most unusual labour and delivery by Trans-Canada Highway marker 242.

• We also got another side of the Sussex Agropur story.

• Robert Irving, co-CEO of one of the province’s biggest companies, died at 71.

• Steve Outhouse, the consultant brought in to run the 2024 New Brunswick PC election campaign, and who had better luck last year in Newfoundland and Labrador, got a new job — his second for Pierre Poilievre, not unlike the “night duties and day duties” for Blaine Higgs.

• The premier of Alberta decided to take the plunge.

• And a very special former CBC colleague was honoured at his alma mater and delivered the convocation address to graduates. Worth a watch.

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The Calendar

The legislature resumes Tuesday, but first, today (Monday), the Holt government will announce its long-awaited plan for N.B. Power following that review. More nuclear, less debt? We’ll find out this afternoon.

We also expect the government’s equally-long-awaited bill on property tax reform this week. The legislature is due to adjourn June 12 and, as noted above, the official languages committee will then hold two weeks of hearings around New Brunswick from June 16 to 26.

The deadline for PC leader candidates to confirm their eligibility is June 19. The new leader will be elected Oct. 17, and two days after that is the Alberta referendum.

Thanks for reading. Back in a week!

A measure of accountability.

The Holt Liberals introduced legislation to tighten up New Brunswick’s lobbyist registry.

The registry has been fodder for countless stories over the years and these changes, even if not adequate enough for some, should shed even more light on the practice.

(Kudos to Adam Huras of Brunswick News for breaking the story that may have led to these changes — though they were promised in the 2024 election.)

There was accountability as well for a couple of New Brunswick municipalities that didn’t live up to the conditions of Ottawa’s Housing Accelerator Fund: they saw their money clawed back even as eight other communities were topped up from the claw-back pool. That news came as we were reminded housing remains an issue.

And on Thursday the Liberals said — in the wake of questions prompted by a CBC News story — that they would look at new affordability measures, perhaps even as a replacement for their 10-per-cent tax rebate.

Nothing new on gas prices, however.

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Peek, Peak, Pique

All politics are local, and in Edmundston there was pique about N.B. Power’s priorities in transmission line upgrades.

But the major electricity news last week was national.

A quick peek at Mark Carney’s new clean electricity strategy suggests it may dovetail nicely with plans for that natural gas plant in Tantramar:

That was just one of Carney’s big energy announcements last week; the second was on carbon pricing and, incidentally, pipelines. A former federal environment minister was not happy, but there is an argument that this does not represent a complete reversal on climate policy. (It may also save the country.)

The impact on New Brunswick? We know from documents we saw back in January that N.B. Power was eyeing a potential second new gas plant, in Scoudouc, but the long wait time for turbines may be a problem.

One has to wonder whether giving Alberta a longer timeline for its industrial carbon price will give Susan Holt second thoughts about a more “robust” price here. More to come on that.

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In Other News

• The Liberals brought in new mining legislation.

• They also revealed plans for a new AI curriculum.

• The premier weighed in on the idea of a social media ban for children.

• In Alberta, there was a major setback for the petition drive for a referendum on separation.

On Café Politique this week, a bit of a grab-bag of topics:

Following Up

Remember my story earlier this spring on New Brunswick government surveillance of public opinion during the pandemic?

The Canadian military had its own internal discussions about the practice.

We also learned that travel to the U.S. may have dropped off even more than we previously thought.

If you’re wondering whatever became of this airline service, here are some answers.

And after I flagged to colleagues in Québec that I discovered while in Baie Comeau that Brian Mulroney’s childhood home had recently sold, I learned that a plan for a Mulroney museum in the community fell apart a couple of years ago.

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This Week’s Restack

I really liked this post by political scientist Jonathan Malloy about the nature of life in Ottawa as a political capital.

Jonathan Malloy on Canadian Politics

This town

I have lived in Ottawa for over a quarter-century. I’m still figuring out this town…

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4 months ago · 6 likes · 2 comments · Jonathan Malloy

It might be worth writing a similar piece about Fredericton someday.

Lastly, this is the coolest thing I read last week.

For Our Political Calendars

The legislature will not sit this week, but the committee reviewing the Official Languages Act will kick off the process with three days of hearings at the legislature in Fredericton before travelling around the province for two more weeks in mid-June.

May is more than half over which means we’re closer to the government indicating its “next steps” on the N.B. Power review. They promised it by the end of the month.

The legislature adjourns June 12; a week later is the deadline to officially meet eligibility requirements for the PC leadership race, with the new leader set to be elected Oct. 17.

It’s Not Too Late

… to tell you friends about this newsletter and encourage them to subscribe to push me over the next big milestone. I appreciate your time and attention!

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So it was that last week, in Baie-Comeau, I took this photo of the town’s best-known son.

Below is Brian Mulroney’s childhood home at 99 Avenue Champlain. It just sold!

Because I was on vacation, this is an abbreviated version of what I usually send out every Monday. Here’s a quick run-down of the key stories by colleagues you don’t want to have missed last week:

• The Agropur plant closure in Sussex continued to generate debate, with a former PC agriculture minister weighing in.

• Two big energy projects may avoid federal regulations on clean electricity. But another big energy project is taking shape in Tantramar.

• A legislative committee held hearings into Liberal plans to update the Clean Water Act last Tuesday and Thursday.

• The federal Green Party riding association in Fredericton has seen better days.

• Archivists, among my favourite people, are busy thanks to a federal rule change about citizenship.

• Premier Susan Holt promised to nudge N.B. Power about those frequent transmission issues in Edmundston.

• There were questions about federal flood mapping; I’m curious about how this may overlap with New Brunswick’s own modernization of its flood mapping a few years back.

• The prime minister announced his nominee as Canada’s next governor-general. Of note given recent contentions in New Brunswick, she’s bilingual. Philippe Lagassé had this take on the selection:

In Defence of Westminster

Arbour and Vice-Regal Appointments and Powers

Canada will soon have a new Governor General: the King has appointed Louise Arbour to the vice-regal office on the advice of Prime Minister Carney…

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4 months ago · 1 like · Philippe Lagassé

• Here’s an interesting hypothetical scenario on the renewal of USMCA — known to its friends around here as CUMSA — that doesn’t involve Donald Trump.

• And speaking of cross-border issues …

That’s all — I’ll be back with a more regular newsletter next Monday. Thanks for reading!

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So it was legit to wonder, when he made some comments about provincial veterinary cuts at a public meeting, whether he was speaking for himself or for the Holt government — and where the concept of cabinet solidarity fit in all this.

After all, the Liberals have mostly avoided public caucus divisions, unlike the previous PC government.

PC MLA Tammy Scott-Wallace sure enjoyed Herron’s comments. You can watch what he said — including how she should use his remarks to corner the government in Question Period, and her reaction — right here.

Anyway, that’s the politics.

Late on Friday, we found out that the cuts are going ahead — but with one modification.

Speaking of the provincial budget, another credit rating agency weighed in on the province’s finances, with an important proviso relevant to the veterinary issue.

A lot of that Liberal spending is aimed at improving the health care system, and last week Premier Holt offered an update with some real numbers attached.

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The Blip?

The federal government recently released greenhouse gas emissions data for 2024, and it may erode the argument we’ve heard over several years that New Brunswick didn’t have to act aggressively because our emissions have come down so much already.

Now they’re heading up again.

Here is my story on the 2024 numbers, and how some other projects in the pipe may put even more upward pressure on emissions.

Nuclear power, of course, doesn’t emit greenhouse gases and has been positioned as a potential clean alternative for the province.

Here’s the latest on how that’s going.

In Other News

• Premier Susan Holt said it would have been “helpful” to know Agropur’s plans for Sussex before the province gave them $2.4 million.

• Some tourism sites are winners and some are losers under the province’s new strategy.

• Irving Oil was charged in that fuel spill in Woodstock.

We talked health, Herron and tourism on Friday’s Café Politique:

On Shift New Brunswick’s political panel, the topics were Moltex, Herron and health.

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Elsewhere …

In Washington, the royal visit was seen largely through the lens of U.S.-U.K. relations, but if you paid close attention, there was some great Canadian content.

In Nova Scotia, former New Brunswick Premier Frank McKenna made a splash at his alma mater.

In Ottawa, meanwhile, the war in Iran is having a positive impact on the federal treasury.

And next door in Maine, there was a political earthquake when the state’s sitting Democratic governor, Janet Mills, quit the primary race for the U.S. Senate nomination, conceding the race to a populist upstart.

Lastly, another milestone in the media business in New Brunswick: Postmedia opted to stop printing most of its provincial newspapers at the press in the former Times-Transcript building in Moncton.

Those of us who once revelled in the fresh smell of ink were a little nostalgic.

I was a summer reporter at the Times when the company began expanding the building for that printing press; little did I know it would become a signpost in the creation of Irving-owned Brunswick News and the controversial history of the papers.

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There is a Quack in Everything

My former CBC colleague Dave Atkinson has a weekly Substack called The Quack. It’s about — well, whimsy isn’t quite the right word, and saying Dave writes about the quotidian makes it seem mundane. It’s much more of a delight than that.

Anyway, I made The Quack this week.

The Quack

The Quack, issue 382

Good morning! It’s very nice to see you. I hope you had a great week…

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4 months ago · 2 likes · Dave Atkinson

You can subscribe to The Quack and you can also buy Dave’s books.

The Calendar

The legislature returns on Tuesday. The standing committee on climate change and environmental stewardship is going to squeeze in some hearings Tuesday and Thursday morning to hear from witnesses as part of the government’s review of the Clean Water Act. Remember, that’s the bill that the Liberals said would be a more effective vehicle for environmental protection when they killed David Coon’s legislation in March.

It’s May, and that means we’ll get an indication of the government’s next steps on N.B. Power by the end of the month. The legislature adjourns June 12 and we’re expecting some hearings on the Official Languages Act later in June.

Candidates for the PC leadership race must meet the eligibility requirements by June 19 with the announcement of the new leader set for Oct. 17.

On The Road

Thanks so much for reading and for the comments you post. I’m on vacation next week, and will be out of the province for part of the week, so next Monday’s newsletter may be skinnier than usual.

By the time that story was published, Green leader David Coon had already called for new oversight measures for the Office of the Provincial Security Advisor.

Throughout my work on those stories, I made several requests for interviews with Public Safety Minister Robert Gauvin, without any luck

We finally spoke on Friday, and Gauvin revealed his department was already at work on one of Coon’s suggestions.

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Political Curdling

It wasn’t the best week politically for the Holt government. Agropur announced the closure of its Sussex dairy plant, which will lead to 60 job losses.

Those kinds of decisions are often out of the hands of government decision-makers —but the fact the Liberals gave Agropur $2.4 million to expand its Miramichi plant without being aware of what might happen in Sussex could exact a political cost.

If that wasn’t bad enough, Prime Minister Mark Carney showed there’s a limit to the Team Canada harmonizing, especially when he sees what he considers a contradiction to the lowering of provincial trade barriers.

Yes, we talked about all of it — and more — on Friday’s political panels.

Here’s the Shift New Brunswick panel from Friday afternoon.

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In Other News

• The Holt Liberals revealed they’re modifying their planned school lunch program away from the promised pay-what-you-can model.

• An environmental impact assessment for that proposed data centre in Saint John reveals that its adjacent gas plant would be the third-largest greenhouse gas emitter in the province.

• The CBC’s Savannah Awde revealed what Horizon Health staff were saying about that ambulance bay unit months before the issue became public.

• The extramural nursing program will now reach all special care homes, another attempt to lower the pressure on hospitals.

• There’s controversy over what a planned anglophone school — the city’s second — would mean for Dieppe’s efforts to bolster the French language.

He Told You So

Another week, another tough headline for N.B. Power.

If only someone had tried to do something about the utility.

Former premier Shawn Graham candidly discussed his government’s attempt to sell the thing back in 2009 on CBC’s This is New Brunswick podcast.

The proposal was unpopular from day one, but more than 16 years later, was Graham right? Leave a comment below.

Speaking of big-picture energy policies, this episode of Amanda Lang’s Wonk podcast is worth your time: there’s plenty of discussion for New Brunswick wonks about Irving Oil’s Saudi crude supply, the Energy East pipeline and the Atlantic Loop.

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Rough Landing

The controversy over Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s purchase, and quick sale, of a government plane provoked some nostalgia among the more senior political observers in New Brunswick.

The New Brunswick government used to own its own little plane, for the use of premiers, ministers and other officials.

It wasn’t fancy, and by cutting travel time, it allowed premiers in particular to be more present in communities far from Fredericton.

But it was the uncanny coincidence of premiers being able to pop in at partisan events during those same trips that ultimately made it too controversial to keep.

The Political Calendar

Budget estimates wrapped up last Thursday; there’s nothing on the legislature calendar this coming week but MLAs will be back in their seats on May 5 for the final spring to summer adjournment, expected on June 12.

The coming month is also when the government will reveal its response to the recommendations on N.B. Power.

After the legislature adjourns, the standing committee on official languages will hold two weeks of hearings around the province to review the Official Languages Act.

And the PC Party will pick its new leader Oct. 17.

My Weekly Thank You

Thanks for being here and for clicking on those story links (even if I occasionally copy and paste the wrong URL). And thanks for spreading the word about this newsletter. Please leave a comment and let me know when and where you read it — I’m curious. And don’t forget to share, so others know that it’s available.

A kind subscriber pointed out that, in Monday’s letter, I had a copy-paste error for the link to last week’s story on the proposed grabbing of personal information from 911 calls back in 2021.

Here is the correct link to that story.

Sorry for the error.

And, by the by, here’s a follow-up story from today.

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On April 14, Premier Susan Holt was in the legislature presenting budget estimates for her office; the PC opposition used the forum to ask her about Moody’s.

Here’s what she said.

Colleague Silas Brown, meanwhile, put together this quick look at how exactly New Brunswick went from big surpluses to big deficits so fast.

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‘In Direct Violation’

Remember Larry Tremblay?

The top Mountie, ousted by the Higgs government in 2021, did not go quietly,

In September 2021, Tremblay drafted a three-page letter to New Brunswick’s Ombud outlining his concerns about a secret plan by the Office of the Provincial Security Advisor.

It took almost four years to get the letter through an Access to Information request to the RCMP, but I finally did receive it and filed this story last week.

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An Energy Cost Trilogy

The price of gas has thrust affordability back into the political spotlight as a top-line issue. Mark Carney did his thing while the CBC’s Shane Fowler ran a cost comparison of one of the oldest heating fuels known to humans.

Meanwhile, the Energy and Utilities Board gave final approval to N.B. Power’s rate hike, though not quite at the level the utility was looking for. The utility also talked about yet another price tag for yet another power plant upgrade.

The panels, of course, were all over these topics. I was absent for both on Friday, but here is Café Politique and here is Shift New Brunswick.

In Other News

• Moncton and Riverview will be among the first communities affected by Canada Post’s phased withdraw from what remains of home mail delivery.

• A paramedic and EMT bursary program will continue.

• A planned upgrade of an aging Moncton school will instead become a replacement with an entirely new school. The minister told Radio-Canada it may be the start of a trend toward taller schools.

• The province announced some funding in the tourism sector, though we already know there are cuts elsewhere.

Floor Crossing 101

The Liberals in Ottawa clinched their majority with three by-election wins, but also thanks to five floor-crossers; former New Brunswick NDP leader-turned-PC cabinet minister-turned-independent MLA - turned federal party leader Dominic Cardy published this take on floor crossing.

In fact, New Brunswick did briefly prohibit MLAs from crossing the floor directly from one party to the other; this piece has a different view from Cardy on the merits of that kind of ban:

Governance Matters

Floor Crossing Laws Inhibit Local Democracy in Favour of Party Discipline

If dictatorships are a one-way street, then democracies at least promise two-way traffic, so the saying goes. But what if the two-way traffic involves crossing the floor? Does that undermine democracy…

Read more

4 months ago · 2 likes · Governance Matters

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I wanted to share this little gem as well. Ian Curran is a St. Thomas University journalist student who’s been working in our newsroom since last summer. The guy’s going places. He also has a deep understanding of one of my favourite subjects, the New Brunswick-Maine border relationship. He recently produced this podcast on the subject, which is worth your time:

(Mark Carney’s also been thinking about that border.)

The Political Calendar

Budget estimates for various departments continue at the legislature this week. Premier Susan Holt is in Ottawa today and tomorrow to meet with the prime minister and several federal ministers.

The legislature is back May 5 and the Liberals have given themselves until the end of May to tell us what they plan to do with that report full of recommendations on N.B. Power. The house will sit until June 12.

The legislature’s standing committee on official languages will then embark on two weeks of hearings around the province on updates to the Official Languages Act. In 2012 and again in 2021, consultations happened in secret; it will be interesting to see how this process unfolds.

Thank You for Reading

Subscriber numbers continue to increase for this newsletter. I appreciate the time you take to read it and to click on links to some of the stories. If you think it’s a worthwhile read, please let friends know that it’s available.