The road to the 2026 midterms is already paved with sensation, with a potential showdown of MAGA vs. Socialism and a host of intense domestic and geopolitical issues. Additionally, last month, the President gave a prime-time State of the Union warning about election fraud, putting the issue back in the arena.

The Independent pollster was on to something as far back as May 20, 2026, when I wrote the following:

“To understand what happens next, we have to dig deeper, which brings us to a critical matter that needs to be raised first and foremost. What is the most important issue voters face right now that neither Democrats nor Republicans are talking about honestly?

The answer is the United States faces a confluence of events and issues so complex and compounding all at once, it immediately calls into question whether either party is really in a position to govern amid intense polarization, a shrinking trust horizon with basic institutions, a sharp and protracted rise in the cost of living, a potential energy crisis in the making, and a burgeoning multipolar world defined by growing competition from Civilizational states (i.e. Chinese, Russians, Turks, Persians, Indians, etc.)? This convergence goes way beyond a policy agenda for one administration. More precisely, I’d call it a civilization-level stress test. And looking beyond party rhetoric and seeking substance, I don’t see either party’s leadership up to the task.”

Recent events of the last couple of weeks have indicated the above forecast was spot on. What many observers thought would be a midterm election with the main features of MAGA vs. Socialism, voter fraud, and the typical top issues – inflation, health and healthcare, immigration and the border, crime, and the war in Iran- has indeed metastasized into what I called a civilizational-level stress test, through a confluence of major events.

The following are the major events that will shape the midterm elections, likely somewhere between September and October. Or perhaps sooner:

1. Look at diesel, not just gas: Although the gas pump is where voters focus a lot of attention, the reality is that diesel plays a far more prominent role in powering Civilization as it affects truck deliveries to supermarkets, farmers operating agricultural equipment, construction companies, railroads, ships, mines, factories, and more. That goes far beyond voters driving to and from work. The national average price of diesel right now is $5.45 per gallon. Although much of the attention is focused on the intensifying Iran conflict (a bona fide regional war, on the brink of becoming much larger), there are also Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries affecting exports, which manufacturing powerhouse China has reduced it’s demand from abroad. Meanwhile, the U.S. has increased exports to meet foreign demand. In other words, multiple factors point to a decreased supply of what actually powers the world. That alone is a big enough issue to determine the Midterm election outcome one way or another. Our John Zogby Strategies August national poll of voters reveals that 41% say increased fuel prices have significantly impacted them. Another 37% say they are somewhat impacted. Only 15% are not impacted (leaving the remaining undecided).

2. Economic warfare and the Japan analogy: Economic warfare typically begets hot war. Interestingly, the hot war between the US, Israel, and Iran already happened. Now the US is focusing on economic strangulation of Iran. News reports say Iran is losing control of the Straits of Hormuz because the US enabled an Omani lane, ushering in a flurry of oil deliveries through the newly provided shipping lane. Combine this with Treasury Secretary Bessent’s attempt to cut Iran off further from the global economy, and one is reminded of FDR’s strategy to strangle Japan, which resulted in the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Meaning, if Iran is backed into a corner, it may pull off its largest retaliation to date. If so, could that be the moment nations determine who they ultimately side with? Secretary Bessent has drawn the line in the sand, making it clear nations are either with the US or against it. If war expands further than it already has, voters are likely to feel the effects more so than they already have, both financially and psychologically. Our John Zogby Strategies August national poll shows a plurality (42%) of voters believe President Trump’s foreign policy has made America’s standing in the world much weaker. Another 14% believe it is somewhat weaker, for a total of 56% of voters who believe America is weaker on the world stage as a result of the President’s style of diplomacy. On the flip side, 36% of voters say the President has made America stronger on the geopolitical front (19% much stronger, 17% somewhat stronger).

3. Currency wars alongside economic war and hot wars: A cursory dive into the history of the First and Second World Wars shows a pattern of currency debasement, economic war or trade wars, followed by official wars. Numerous observers report the third world war is already being fought. This time around, though, the order hasn’t been followed: currency wars are following hot war, which followed trade wars. And once again, Secretary Bessent is the central actor, making a major announcement and committing to essentially prop up the bond market, promising to use one trillion dollars at his disposal to save it. It reminds me of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who once said his former job as liaison between Wall Street and the Fed allowed him to devise a plan in the heat of the Great Financial Crisis. When he proposed the Fed buying bonds (otherwise known as Quantitative Easing, or QE) to former Chairman Ben Bernanke, he said Bernanke’s response was, “So you’re saying we’ll become a banana Republic?” It is necessary to understand that any Fed chair and Treasury Secretary, when faced with needing to prop up the system, will take drastic measures. Both are between a rock and a hard place. Allow rates to rise, which increases the interest on the national debt, currently the second-largest federal expenditure, or intervene in the market by providing liquidity (aka inflating the currency) and drive down rates. However, injecting one trillion dollars into the economy will drive prices up, and voters are already at a breaking point. In either case, the outcome is not pain-free. But an emergency measure to save the bond and stock markets could very well result in further price shocks. Again, our national polling shows 37% of voters report their financial situation is much worse off under the Trump Presidency, another 20% say somewhat worse off, vs. 31% saying better off (12% much better and 19% somewhat better). And while a great deal of these numbers are partisan, it’s key to look at Independent voters, of whom 44% alone say they’re much worse and 21% tell us somewhat worse.

So, a quick recap of the confluence of events I wrote about back in May, which appears to be forming before our eyes, begs the question: which party is in a better position to control the House and Senate come November?

It is abundantly clear that voters today, by and large, are signaling buyer’s remorse as our August Congressional generic ballot question has Democrats ahead by 11 percentage points (51% to 40%).

Any honest observer of politics will admit that the Democratic Party is embroiled in an internal battle between Socialist candidates and Establishment candidates. Currently, the party’s Socialist wing has momentum. But the party as a whole lacks a bona fide leader and vision.

Socialist ideas tend to proliferate during times of hardship and a loss of faith in the future, creating a demand from voters- in this case, both Democratic and a share of Independent voters- for security from the government.

The problem is, at the same time, voters will soon learn how expensive our vast bureaucracy and social programs in existence are – from the federal and state levels, all the way down to municipal.

Meanwhile, infrastructure remains vulnerable because of imperial expansion, both in terms of susceptibility to attack and neglect.

Candidates will line up and make promises to voters. Each party will position itself as the savior of this nation in an Armageddon-style election (usually during a presidential election). So 2026 may very well be the first Armageddon midterm election.

But the party that convincingly articulates the pain Independent and other swing voters feel, and presents a layered approach to providing security amid great uncertainty, is the party likely to succeed. The catch is that America simultaneously appears to be facing a civilizational-level stress test.

The Treasury building in Washington D.C. Secretary Scott Bessent is a key figure in the news today as a result of announcing his drastic measures to prop up the bond market and declaring all-out economic war on Iran and any nation who does not side with the U.S.

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