The stock market seems to shrug off any bad news this year.

• Persistent inflation that’s higher for longer

• Iran War

• Oil and gas prices remain high

• $40 Trillion Debt Balance

But the market doesn’t seem to care. It’s now up 20% since the lows in April.

Up 12% year to date.

So is the market overvalued? Or fairly valued?

The market now trades at a forward P/E ratio of 25. This is high by historical standards.

However - Analysts are predicting massive earnings growth.

OVER 20% ANNUALLY THROUGH 2028

If that does happen, the stock market looks reasonably priced.

How is that possible?

• Magnificent Dominance - The top 10 companies make up over 35% of the S&P 500 index weight. High-margin tech, semiconductor, and platform giants (generating 30%+ net profit margins) push aggregate earnings up even if the remaining 490 companies grow at modest 5–8% rates.

• Share Buybacks - Share repurchases directly accelerate per-share growth. If net income grows by 15% while S&P companies reduce their overall share float by 3–4% annually through share buybacks, reported EPS growth moves closer to 20%.

• Global Revenue Exposure: Over 30% of S&P 500 revenues come from international markets. Global economic expansion alongside a softer U.S. dollar can boost domestic profits.

The Reality Check

I’m a little more skeptical that these numbers are likely.

3-year estimates rarely hit in full. Analysts routinely start with optimistic growth assumptions in years 2 and 3. They usually revise their expectations down as time goes on.

How to play this market?

I’m cautiously optimistic. I stay fully invested for the long term.

Corporations may be able to grow revenue faster with similar head counts. AI is going to make workers more productive and efficient. It’s still in the early innings of this technology.

If earnings can really compound at 20% for a few years, I don’t want to be sitting on the sidelines.

BUT

I still like to keep 10%-20% of my portfolio in bonds.

This dry powder gives me the ability to pick up shares for cheap the next time we get a 20%+ market crash.

Napoleon was famous for saying you can survive 36 hours without food, but not three minutes without gunpowder.

In a market correction, the rule remains the same: a rare buying opportunity is completely wasted if you don't have the dry powder to buy the dip.

Disclaimer

The information contained in this article is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including the risk of loss of principal. You should always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The author of this article is not a registered investment advisor and does not have any inside information about any of the companies mentioned. The author’s opinions are based on publicly available information and should not be construed as investment advice.

The author of this article assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this article. The information contained in this article is provided on an “as is” basis with no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness.

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They just set the price per share at $135 which values the company at $1.75 Trillion Dollars.

They are looking to raise $75 Billion of cash from this offering. This is the most cash ever raised from an IPO.

How does SpaceX generate revenue?

There are 3 main categories for their revenue

• Starlink

• Space Launches

• AI

Starlink by far generates the most money for the company. This segment is what most investors are excited about.

They have over 10 million subscribers currently. I could easily see them grow 10X from here. Right now they are adding 750,000 members each month.

AI generates revenue from advertising on twitter, selling AI compute and Grok subscriptions.

Everyone knows that AI is going to be a big part of the future, but nobody has figured out a way to actually profit from the service.

Space generates revenue from commercial launches of it’s rockets. Governments and other third party customers can pay to launch their satellites using Spacex’s reusable rockets.

Growth

Revenue is projected to compound at 20%-30% over the next few years.

Valuation

The price to sales ratio over the next 12 months is somewhere in the range of 60-80 times revenue.

That is a very expensive price to pay for a company.

I usually never pay more than 10x sales for companies growing at 30%

I would be way more interested if the share price was closer to $30 per share.

Cash Burn

The company is currently burning through $9.1 Billion dollars of cash each quarter.

Jon’s Thoughts

I will not be buying a large position at this price. I will buy a few shares for now and I plan on keeping an eye on this company going forward. If the share price were to fall significantly I would be interested in owning a larger piece of this company.

It feels like all of the growth projections are priced into the current share price. I don’t see much room for surprises to the upside.

The hype is very real and the stock will likely rise on opening day. When the lock up periods end I could see many insiders start selling their shares.

There’s a common saying among investors.

IPO stands for It’s Probably Overvalued.

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Disclaimer

The information contained in this article is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including the risk of loss of principal. You should always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The author of this article is not a registered investment advisor and does not have any inside information about any of the companies mentioned. The author’s opinions are based on publicly available information and should not be construed as investment advice.

The author of this article assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this article. The information contained in this article is provided on an “as is” basis with no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness.

Most people think of options trading as gambling.

And that’s true if you are buying options.

But if you are the one selling options, you can buy shares at a cheaper price and get paid to wait.

Phil Town breaks it do…

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Stocks are off to a jittery start in 2026. Down 7% so far.

Will it keep falling? Maybe, maybe not.

I’ve got a list of companies I think are oversold and will be adding to my portfolio.

#1 GPN

Global Payments (GPN) makes money by processing payments internationally. They act like a digital “toll booth” that collects a tiny fee every time someone swipes a cre…

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For all of my subscribers in North Dakota.

Make sure you apply for the Primary Residence Credit.

It’s $1600 off your property taxes.

You need to apply every year.

Go do it right now.

Every year I find a tax client that forgets to apply and it makes me sad.

PRC APPLICATION

In this video I cover SOFI’s earnings as well as 3 companies I’m buying to profit from the AI boom.

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Here’s a nice report from TIKR on 10 undervalued companies.

I’m a big fan of ADBE, but the other 9 seem undervalued as well. There are a few names I want to understand more before I buy any …

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Stocks have been ripping for the past 3 years. Up 80%.

My portfolio has smoked that. Up 614%.

I tell my premium subscribers about every company I’m invested in.

You should upgrade today if you want in on the action.

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Every year I like to make predictions for the year and revisit them the following January.

For 2025 I predicted.

1. Interest rates will keep falling gradually
   I predicted 2 rate cuts and we actually got 3 during 2025.

2. Housing will become more expensive
   Housing prices were only up 1.7%, I thought they would climb even faster with the rate cuts. But — I’ll still count this as a correct prediction.

   

3. Stock Market correction of 10%+ could happen this year
   The S&P 500 saw a near 20% drop during the tariff announcements in April

The stock market then rallied for the rest of the year to finish the year up 17% to roughly 6850

This was near my middle estimate for 2025.

Jon’s S&P 500 estimates for 2025

1. 6200 low estimate
   If the market trades mostly sideways this year I would not be surprised. We have had back to back really good years. Eventually returns will get closer to the long run average of 10% per year.

2. 6600 mid estimate
   This would be an average year for the stock market.

3. 7200 high estimate
   If the rally keeps on running to this level - I think the market is looking expensive again.

So 2 years in a row I hit on all of my predictions!

Let’s see if I can do it again for 2026

1. Data Centers and AI spending are are going to continue dominating the headlines

2. Interest Rates will continue to fall

3. Another Stock Market Correction of 10%+ could occur

Data Centers

Some people say we’re in an AI bubble and the house of cards will collapse any day now.

I’m just not seeing it. The demand for data centers and AI is insatiable. They can’t spend the money fast enough.

The USA is by far the leader in this industry.

We’ve invested nearly 10 times as much as the next closest country.

The money is pouring in and I expect a few companies will make money hand over fist.

Upgrade to see which companies I’m buying to profit from this trend.

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Interest Rates

Jerome Powell’s (Fed Chair) term is up in May. Trump wants to replace him with someone who will cut rates even faster.

The market is pricing in roughly 2 rate cuts, but I would not be surprised if we get even more.

This will cause asset prices to keep on rising (Farmland, Stocks, Real Estate, Precious Metals)

Stock Market Correction

The PE ratio of the S&P 500 is over 30 again. That usually means that stocks are over valued.

Now is a great time to be loading up on cash and short term treasuries (SGOV).

When the market does eventually pull back 10%-20% you will have extra liquidity to buy up the discounts.

I do think this crash is likely in 2026, but I’m always long term optimistic on the stock market (10+ years).

American businesses getting bigger is the best bet of the last century.

Jon’s S&P 500 estimates for 2026

1. 7000 low estimate
   I would not be surprised if the market trades mostly sideways this year. 80% rally in the last 3 years is about as good as it gets.

2. 7500 mid estimate
   This would be an average year for the stock market.

3. 8000 high estimate
   If the rally keeps on running to this level - I think the market is looking expensive again.

My strategy this year is largely the same. Keep on investing consistently every month. I like buying short term treasuries until we see a market crash. When it does, I will be buying the dip like always.

Cheers to 2026. May it be your best year yet :)

Disclaimer

The information contained in this article is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including the risk of loss of principal. You should always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The author of this article is not a registered investment advisor and does not have any inside information about any of the companies mentioned. The author’s opinions are based on publicly available information and should not be construed as investment advice.

The author of this article assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this article. The information contained in this article is provided on an “as is” basis with no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness.

For comparison, the S&P 500 is trading at 25x earnings. This is looking expensive and due for a correction.

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Wouldn’t it be great if kids had 18 years of experience investing by the time they turn 18?

Even small amounts can compound nicely given enough time.

But it is more important to foster the habit of saving and investing.

Watch this video below to learn which account makes the most sense for your family.

I like the Custodial Brokerage account for my kids. It offers the most flexibility.

Disclaimer

The information contained in this article is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including the risk of loss of principal. You should always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The author of this article is not a registered investment advisor and does not have any inside information about any of the companies mentioned. The author’s opinions are based on publicly available information and should not be construed as investment advice.

The author of this article assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this article. The information contained in this article is provided on an “as is” basis with no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness.

2025 was another big year for the Lee household.

Kenzi recently finished her 40 week body building program.

It’s a girl and weighs 9lbs 1oz.

Meet Amelia

The kids have all welcomed her with open arms. They all love to hold her and fight for their turn.

Alexander started 3rd grade this year.

He is a big fan of Star Wars and is trying to learn everything he can about World War 2.

Emersyn is loving Kindergarten this year. She can now read many sight words and her speech has come a long way.

She loves puzzles, board games, anything pink and tattling on her little brother.

Her face lights up any time she gets to hold her baby sister :)

Caelan is a full on toddler.

His mood swings are intense. Terrible tantrums to the sweetest snuggles. He’s always trying to make us laugh.

He loves picking on Alex and Emi, watching Bluey and Mickey Mouse.

Jon has been enjoying this run the Broncos are on. 11 straight wins and the Chiefs missed the playoffs :)

As we reflect on the past twelve months, we are so thankful for the many blessings bestowed upon us in 2025. Beyond the milestones, it is the quiet moments and the love of family and friends that we treasure most. We wish you a season filled with that same peace and a New Year overflowing with joy.

Merry Christmas to you all!

PS - the kids all say 6-7 every day of the week.

Do not buy shares of this company with money you can’t afford to lose.

AI might be in a big bubble.

CRWV is not going to turn a profit for a number of years.

They have a mountain of debt, and a lot can go wrong between now and widespread AI adoption.

This is a high risk company.

However - with th…

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The stock has had it’s worst year ever. It’s down 70%!

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Gold is on a historic run, shattering price records.

It has doubled since the beginning of 2024.

The last time gold was running this fast - I was in college back in 2011!

But - The following 9 years were not kind to gold investors.

It took the Covid pandemic to finally push the price back to all time highs.

What is causing this bull market? Let’s dive in!

Geopolitical Fear and Uncertainty

People flee to Gold as a safe haven. With global instability, conflicts in key regions, and unpredictable tariffs, investors and institutions are flocking to the one asset they believe can hold its value when stocks and bonds fall. This fear-driven demand is pushing the price higher.

Central Banks are Hoarding Gold

Central banks worldwide are accumulating gold at a near-record pace. They are diversifying their national reserves away from the U.S. dollar and other fiat currencies, viewing gold as the ultimate insurance against economic risk and potential sanctions. This consistent, large-scale institutional buying creates a sustained floor under the price and removes massive amounts of physical gold from the market.

The Fed’s Rate-Cut Outlook

The expectation of the Federal Reserve (and other central banks) cutting interest rates is a tailwind for gold. Since gold pays no interest, its appeal increases when the yields on bonds decline. This anticipated shift to lower rates is fueling institutional demand.

Deficit Spending and Debt Loads

High and persistent government deficits, along with rising national debt, are creating anxieties about fiscal sustainability and potentially eroding confidence in fiat currencies, making gold a more attractive safe haven asset.

Key Downsides of Gold Investment

No Income Generation: Unlike stocks (which may pay dividends) or bonds (which pay interest), gold is a non-yielding asset. The only way to profit is through price appreciation when you sell it. This lack of cash flow means it cannot provide a steady income stream.

Opportunity Cost: By tying up capital in gold, you miss out on potential higher returns from other asset classes.

Here is a 100 year chart comparing gold to the Dow Jones. Gold is doing well, but businesses are the best bet in the long run.

Additional Costs: If you buy physical gold (like coins or bars), you’ll incur extra expenses for secure storage (such as a safe deposit box or vault service) and insurance against theft or loss. These ongoing costs can reduce your overall net return.

Price Volatility: While gold is considered a long-term hedge against uncertainty, its price can still be very volatile in the short term, influenced by market sentiment.

From 2011 - 2020 gold fell by 40% before it recovered.

Will this Gold rally continue?

Maybe Yes, Maybe No.

The rally could continue, or we may be closer to a peak.

I don’t know how to put a fair value on the price of gold.

I do know that companies that mine gold are making big profits.

This usually invites competition from other companies.

This usually drives the price of gold down.

Now might be a good time to take some profits if you have been investing in gold.

Jon’s Position

I don’t hold any gold in my portfolio.

If I did I would try to time the market. When people are laughing at the gold bugs and the gold mining companies are struggling — That is the time I would start a long position.

I like companies that produce cash flow and are growing their revenue by over 20% each year. That’s what makes sense to me.

Upgrade your subscription today if you want to see what I’m investing in each month!

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Disclaimer

The information contained in this article is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be investment advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including the risk of loss of principal. You should always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The author of this article is not a registered investment advisor and does not have any inside information about any of the companies mentioned. The author’s opinions are based on publicly available information and should not be construed as investment advice.

The author of this article assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this article. The information contained in this article is provided on an “as is” basis with no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness.

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The overall stock market is looking expensive again. It’s trading at 25x Forward Earnings.

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It’s time again to look at the 2nd quarter earning for SOFI. Sorry it’s about 1 month late, I was enjoying summer with the family :)

The stock price has climbed 180% since the lows in April.

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Some investors only look at charts and momentum to make their investing decisions.

The chart is all they care about.

They believe that certain patterns can sometimes predict future movements.

A lot of people look down on technical analysis. They call it astrology for stock pickers.

But - It’s not all useless.

I’ll share with you …

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