Connecting the market dots

This week has been a great reminder about how connected the global markets are. When oil prices spike, it creates inflation concerns. Inflation concerns spark talk of interest rate hikes. Talk of interest rate hikes leads some investors to sell their bonds, in anticipation of new bonds being issued at higher rates. As those investors sell their existing bonds, the yields on those bonds go up. New buyers then see an opportunity to buy lower priced bonds with higher real returns, which can be an attractive proposition compared to some stocks. So some stocks decline as investors buy bonds instead.

I’ve been covering these back and forth themes for more than 25 years and while it’s important to understand them, they shouldn’t cloud your long-term plans. It’s just part of the regular money cycle in the markets.

On a related note, we have not entered what is generally the worst month of the year for stocks. And, as I have said previously in this newsletter, there are also lots of data supporting the idea of a positive finish this year for stocks. So just be prepared for typical uncertainty in September and the reasonable likelihood of resumed buying later in the year.

What is Michael Burry shorting and buying?

A lot of people have asked us to do a Burry breakdown, so we did! Burry, of course, made a fortune betting against Wall Street during the financial crisis. Now, he’s betting against Silicon Valley and the AI trade. We dug deeper into his investing framework and shared some lessons I learned from my in-depth interview with him. And we walked through 6 stocks he’s shorting and 6 stocks he likes. You can watch the full episode here!

Paid members: the full written breakdown of all 6 of Burry’s shorts and 6 buys can be found below in our paid section, The Inside Take.

Anthropic IPO filing could be a litmus test

As an added note, Wells Fargo published a report this week, saying it’s cautious about the stock market right now in part because of the AI spending uncertainty. However, Anthropic’s IPO filing could pour cold water on those worries. So that’s something to keep watching.

Apple’s new CEO

John Ternus officially took over for Tim Cook this week. I’m old enough to remember Apple under Steve Jobs and covered the transition to Cook after Job’s death extensively. Cook had big shoes to fill, but his operational expertise shined through and Bloomberg noted this week the stock rose 2,258% under his leadership. Cook gets lots of credit for selling endless iPhones and Macs, but less credit with the growth of watches, AirPods and the services side of Apple. I think that’s because despite the success of those businesses, people we’re always waiting for the “next big thing” energy that Jobs so often brought to the table. These days, we look more to people like Elon Musk or Jensen Huang for futuristic cues, which makes Ternus an interesting pick. While few are expecting Jobs or Jonny Ive magic, he is a hardware guy and we’ll get an early look at how well he can excite investors when Apple unveils its much anticipated folding iPhone.

Dude, it’s time to understand Dell’s business

Heading into the quarter, Dell’s stock had enjoyed an insane run-up. Post earnings this week, it continued to climb. And when you look at the analyst expectations, many on Wall Street would not be surprised if its shares gain even more ground. What’s going on? Well, Dell’s business blend is perfect for the times we’re living in. The company got its start in PC’s and still sells lots of them. But along the way, it realized those same PC customers would need servers. So it built a big server business. Once a company buys Dell PC’s and servers, switching vendors becomes a hassle, so Dell keeps winning repeat business from the same customers. That’s what you might call a sticky business. As the AI era approached, Dell started building new servers to house Nvidia GPUs instead of traditional computer CPUs. If you think of Nvidia GPUs as the engine, Dell buys those engines from Nvidia and then builds the body of the car and connects all the wires.

Since it already has a pretty sticky customer base, it was a pretty smooth transition to start selling them AI servers. And beyond its traditional customer base, there are lots of other customers who need AI servers. We broke down what neoclouds do last week. Those are the companies that rent out AI data centres. If you’re building a data centre, you need servers. So neoclouds are also Dell customers. Hyperscalers less so, because companies like Amazon are building at such massive scale they often make their own servers. But you can think of Dell as the company that is well positioned to sell AI servers to businesses and governments that aren’t hyperscalers. They have years of experience building servers and helping to operate them at scale. And right now they have a massive backlog for that business. I also talked last week about companies that are expected to see huge dividend growth in the coming years. Well, Dell is giving a lot of its cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Buying back stock is always a great way to ensure EPS growth. Meanwhile, Bloomberg is currently projecting Dell’s dividend will grow by 17% in the next 3 years. Compare that to a company like Apple, which is projected to see 5% dividend growth. We’ve also talked in the past about financial metrics such as ROIC, which is return on invested capital. It’s a way to measure whether a company is a good steward of capital. Well, Dell’s ROIC has been through the roof because it has thoughtfully invested in its business, which in turn is driving free cash flow, which it then returns to investors in a big way. Wow!

If SaaS can’t beat AI, join AI

Last week, we talked about whether the floor was in for software stocks, following news that a private equity firm had kicked the tires on Workday. I didn’t cover Salesforce earnings last week, but they were another reminder the saaspocalypse may be done. Salesforce deepening its ties with Anthropic was a crowd pleaser. Ahead of the company’s upcoming analyst day, TD Cowen has boosted its price target on the stock to $300 per share. It expects more details on the partnership at that event.

Stocks that benefit from Nvidia’s climb

Since we highlighted the very bearish views from Michael Burry, let’s cover the more bullish angle of AI. As we discussed here last week, Nvidia had a fantastic quarter and an encouraging outlook. Many of you asked about the related AI stocks that could benefit from Nvidia’s continued climb. So Caroline and I made a video about it. Check it out here!

Meta’s massive AI opportunity

Meanwhile, Mark Zuckerberg is spending an enormous amount of money on AI with mixed results as a hyper-scaler, but top marks as an advertiser. Bernstein recently put out a note highlighting the company will soon pass Google Search as the largest digital ad platform thanks to its success in matching ads to the right audiences with AI. The firm sees weakness in the stock as an opportunity. Caroline did a great breakdown on AI Under The Hood:

Stocks that rarely go down

I always find it interesting to go back and look at stocks that have been perennial winners. I looked back at the past 15 years to find names that have only had 3 down years or less. I didn’t include 2026 since we’re still rolling through.

6 top investing lessons from Warren Buffett

The Oracle of Omaha just turned 96. Here are 6 of my favourite Buffett lesson:

1 - Stocks don’t care what you paid

They don’t know what you paid because they’re not people. Their stocks. They don’t even know you own them. So focus on where a stock is going, not where it’s been.

2 - Diversification is protection against ignorance

Buffett believes in owning the broader market like the S&P 500. But if you really understand a business, you don’t need to own 50 stocks. Just own the best ones.

3 - Be prepared for a 50% drop

If you own for the long-term, prepare yourself for a big drop in the short-term. Think of it more like a house, which you’re probably not checking the price of each day.

4 - The stock market makes mistakes

If the market seems drunk, take advantage. You’re getting an opportunity to buy at a good price.

5 - There aren’t called strikes in investing

In baseball, you only gets 3 strikes, but investors can take one million pitches before swinging.

6 - Big opportunities must be seized.

Don’t miss your chance. If you see a great one don’t dabble. Go for it!

Would you buy shares of the Oura Ring maker?

Do you use an Oura ring? I don’t, but Caroline loves hers. The company that makes it (Oura Health) is worth keeping on your radar, since it’s expected to go public this fall. Oura already filed the initial paperwork. Ahead of the IPO, Oura has said its revenue is on pace to reach $1.5 billion this year, which would be a threefold increase from $500 million in 2024. I haven’t looked closely at the numbers yet and there aren’t too many to analyze. But it’s sparking some buzz around health-related apps. Interestingly, when we had Eric Jackson as a Ticker Take guest recently, he recommended shares of Peloton because he felt that stock has been left for dead and carries a much lower valuation than what Oura’s offering will likely be priced at. Stay tune!

This week in The Inside Take

We’ve got lots of stock ideas in the paid section below. If you’re not a subscriber, it costs less than a cup of coffee a week. Sign up here! Here’s what paying members get today:

Michael Burry’s portfolio. A quick and easy way to read a breakdown of his top 6 shorts and buys. I also encourage you to subscribe to Michael’s Substack!

When to use a stop loss? We’ll how you a top investor uses stop losses (including context on when they are less useful).

17 growth stocks with profit protection. We’ll share growth names whose profits are growing faster than their stocks.

10 quality stocks? We’ll show you some key metrics that help explain if a stock is “quality” and highlight 10 examples.

5 “Rule of 40” stocks. We explain how this analysis works and highlight stocks that meet the criteria AND meet an added layer of analysis that screens for value.

7 non-tech stocks that are sales machines. We break down some of the world’s most impressive revenue generators.

Next week’s Ticker Take episode. I am soooo excited about this one. It’s very timely, given the AI debate. Subscribers will also find out one of the picks ahead of our release.

[What are you waiting for? Become a paid member →]

Connect with us everywhere!

Apple Podcasts!

Spotify!

Instagram!

TikTok!

X!

Facebook

Website: Ticker Take!

Read Caroline’s Substack: The Take Down

Disclaimer: this content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or professional advice. Always consult a qualified professional regarding your individual situation.

Read more

All about Nvidia

The king of the market reported results. Aside from reporting astronomical growth, Nvidia’s comments on expected revenue gains next year of 70% really encouraged investors. The company made a point of saying that growth would be stronger if it weren’t for supply constraints. That was a piece of good news for memory players. Bottom line: if you go by what Nvidia’s saying, the AI boom is far from slowing down.

Bonus AI coverage: If you subscribe to our paid section, we have a breakdown of four private neocloud companies that are playing a role in Nvidia’s growth and could soon go public.

5 luxury stocks to own?

Can’t afford a Birkin bag? You can still own a piece of the company that makes it!

This week on Ticker Take, we spoke with Markus Hansen, a portfolio manager at the global money manager Vontobel. He invests in the world’s most exclusive brands for a living.

How does he find winning stocks in the luxury market?

Hansen says look for companies that are willing to play the long game because consumers have big appetites for brands with a rich history.

“You can’t buy time,” he told me. “So building that heritage is one of the biggest moats around.”

You can watch the full video below!

Paid members: the full written breakdown of all 5 stocks — with Markus’ reasoning on each — is below in our paid section, The Inside Take.

Stocks impacted by Canada-US trade war

As you probably know, Canada has been navigating trade-related economic uncertainty for some time now. But you probably also know that it hasn’t slowed down the Canadian stock market. That’s because some of most influential industries that make up the TSX have been star performers.

Scotiabank strategist Hugo Ste-Marie reiterated that this week, saying in a note to clients that the hit to Canada’s economy is more likely to be greater than the impact on Canadian stocks. “If oil, gold and copper prices remain elevated, they should continue to support the TSX,” he added. Add to that Canadian banks, who enjoyed notable stock rallies ahead of their strong quarterly profit reports this week.

That’s not to say there aren’t vulnerable companies. Canada Goose shares were downgraded by Wells Fargo on tariff worries. Formerly a strength, the company’s domestic manufacturing is now seen as a liability.

But overall, trading could be mixed.

While U.S. steel stocks such as Steel Dynamics an Nucor initially rallied, Canadian players such as Algoma slumped. Autos is a bit complicated, in that GM and Ford are cross-border players. Auto parts companies in Canada like Magna and Linamar were initially sold. Alcoa is a bit complicated too, in that it has a major smelting footprint in Canada. Theoretically, lumber and paper companies stateside like International Paper and Weyerhaeuser could benefit and we did see early weakness for Canadian names like Cascades and West Fraser. However analysts at RBC did react by saying the impact could be manageable.

Should you worry about rising bond yields?

I’d say you should be aware of rising bond yields, but not worry. There’s been a lot of focus on 10-year U.S. government bond yields moving towards 5%. There are multiple factors. The ballooning deficit is one and you probably saw the U.S. now has $40 trillion in debt. Plus, inflation worries never really went away. So bond investors feel like given the road ahead for interest rates and U.S. deficits that higher yields are justified. Also, a lot of tech companies are borrowing for their AI growth plans and so Uncle Sam has to compete against them for bond market money.

But as for higher yields sinking stocks, I’m more mixed on that. A lot of people point to 2007 and the 10-yeare yield crossing 5%, followed by a big drop for stocks. But that was a different time. There are no signs the wheels are coming off in the market, with profits climbing and the AI story continuing to provide a big lift. Bank of America called 5% a warning level for investors. I’d say that’s fair. But no need to fear a warning. Rather, just be mindful of it.

Elon’s Outlook For SpaceX? Tesla?

SpaceX is on pace for some of the biggest revenue growth in tech over the next 5 years. According to the average analyst estimates on Wall Street, SpaceX could see its top line grow by more than 2,000%. Tesla, meanwhile, is still on pace for its own big numbers, with analysts projecting revenue growth of 119% over the next 5 years. When I posted those expectations on X, Elon Musk commented “I know this sounds crazy right now, but I think both SpaceX and Tesla will exceed these estimates.”

What’s your take?

10 stocks with biggest dividend growth?

I recently screened the market for companies that are expected to see the biggest dividend growth in the next 3 years. It’s based on Bloomberg’s dividend forecasting tool, but we did have some caveats with the list. We only focused on stocks of companies that have a market cap of more than $1 billion. Also, all of the stocks had to be recommended by a majority of the analysts who cover them. They also need to score well on Bloomberg’s dividend health rating. And, we wanted to see generally improving trends with each company’s dividend payout ratio, just so it would not be a strain on the company to pay dividends going forward. Against that backdrop, here is that list of 10. What we did not share in our video is the expected percentage dividend growth, so here it is!

Paid members: we extended this list to include the top 20 dividend growth stocks in our paid section below, The Inside Take!

Don’t put all your eggs in one basket

I hate cliches, but in a recent video, I was looking for a way to visualize this one. So I reviewed the performance of some individual stocks over the short term and the long term. I picked on three companies, in particular: AT&T, Citigroup and Macy’s. All of them have seen solid stock moves in the past two years. However, they’ve been losers over the past 20 years. By comparison, simply buying the S&P 500 over that period of time would have netted you an incredible return.

Mind you, this cherry-picking form of analysis sparked some to identify the 20 year returns of home run stocks like Nvidia. And to that I would say, point taken! More than anything, it was simply a reminder to think about the eggs you’ve got in your basket. If one of them cracked, would the others help to offset the mess?

This week in The Inside Take

Every week in The Inside Take, we go deeper on how the pros approach the market. If you like this newsletter, you’ll love the paid section. This week:

Breaking down the luxury picks. We’ll have a written review of all 5 luxury stock picks for those who want a deeper dive on the recommendations.

The other top dividend growth stocks. We shared the top 10 above, but we have the full 20 below.

4 private neocloud companies to know. Some are good friends to Nvidia and may be going public soon. Get to know them!

Is Bitcoin back? A brief breakdown of what’s been happening.

Why shorts can be a good thing. Short interest has been high, but history suggests there are some potential positives for the stock market.

5 stocks with top rankings! Our friend had us on his great show, The Investopedia Express. And he highlighted 5 stocks that score well based on some key metrics we recently shared with you!

Is Eli Lilly facing a patent problem? We’ll dive into the patent protection expectations for one of the world’s hottest companies, which increasingly getting caught up in legal fights.

Next week’s Ticker Take episode. Be first to know (and trust me, you’re gonna wanna know because many of you have been asking for this one)

[Become a paid member →]

Connect with us everywhere!

Apple Podcasts: Apple Podcasts!

Spotify: Spotify!

Instagram: Instagram!

TikTok: TikTok!

X: X!

Website: Ticker Take!

Disclaimer: this content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or professional advice. Always consult a qualified professional regarding your individual situation.

Read more

What’s working in August?

Quite a bit, actually. Bears would have you believe the wheels are coming off, but you’ve been able to make money in a whole host of areas this month. Not all tech is navigating well, but there have been plenty of double digit returns. Investors have, overall, shown an appetite for gold stocks, including Ticker Take guest favourite Agnico Eagle. They’ve pushed up energy stocks with lingering uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz (more in our paid section). And while some tech names have been wobbly, many have enjoyed big bumps. So keep calm and carry on.

But…September is coming. What does that mean for stocks?

Well, history suggests it’s a tough month. According to research from RBC, September is typically the worst month of the year. Data going back to 1928 found that the S&P 500 declines 1.2% during the month. In Canada, there’s also commonly been a September slide. Since 1970, the S&P/TSX Composite had declined, on average, by 1.4%. I did a deeper review of what has happened in the past 25 years. According to the Bloomberg data, the S&P 500 and TSX have typically lost nearly 1.2% during the month in that more recent stretch.

But all that said, there are still reason to be bullish for the rest of the year overall and we have a full breakdown on that in our paid section below, along with all of that 25-year September data I referenced.

How to find the next Nvidia!

Growth investor Bruce Campbell returned to Ticker Take this week! He searches the small cap world for stocks that can deliver outsized returns. And it’s not easy! In this episode, Bruce walks us through 8 stocks he likes right now. But he also shares some important lessons about big game hunting. Sometimes stocks surge and other times they sink. As an investor, you need to understand who you are in those moments so you can have a sound strategy when a stock is climbing or falling. Bruce also explains how he himself navigates those moments. This is a must watch! Check it out below.

Paid members: the full written breakdown of all 8 stocks — with Bruce’s reasoning on each — is below in The Inside Take. Oh, and speaking of Nvidia, there’s a fresh bullish call out on the stock. We have full details in our paid section too!

The rapid rise of Anthropic

It’s pretty incredible to watch the growth of AI darling Anthropic. The maker of Claude got started in 2021 and only started generating revenue in 2023. By the end of last year, it had reached an annual run rate for revenue of $9 billion. And now, we’ve just learned it generated $11.5 billion in revenue in a single quarter, surpassing rival OpenAI (and easily) for the first time.

Both Anthropic and OpenAI are barreling towards IPOs, but it does seem Anthropic is in better shape to go first. Leaked reports indicate the company’s internal stretch goal is to reach $200 billion in revenue by 2028. And, perhaps in an effort to win over Wall Street, it’s already demonstrating an ability to report an adjusted profit.

While there’s plenty of money being generated from people using Claude, the biggest part of their business seems to be on the developer side, with companies incorporating Anthropic into their software offerings. That’s one of the reasons we’ve seen so much uncertainty in the software industry.

Obviously if AI usage costs drop dramatically, that could impact Anthropic’s business. But if the company is on track to reach $200 billion in revenue within five years of first generating sales, it’s hard not to see how this IPO will one of the biggest of all time.

Caroline did a great AI Under The Hood on Anthropic this week, which you should check out!

Why did a robot stock surge 600%?

A Chinese company called Unitree saw its shares spike as much as 629% in their first day of trading. Unitree makes humanoid robots, as well as dog-like robots and already has real sales. It shipped more than 5,500 humanoids last year. The IPO surge was partly because of the combination of hype and the fact that Chinese rules require offer prices to stay relatively low. We’ll see if the sizzle stays, but interestingly Unitree has some notable backers, including AI startup DeepSeek.

What’s in Warren’s wallet?

We got some updates on stocks that Berkshire Hathaway’s been buying. Warren Buffett has obviously transitioned much of the Berkshire investing agenda to Greg Abel and the rest of the team, but there is some consistency with Berkshire purchases while Buffett was still CEO. Berkshire has been adding to its stake in Alphabet, which is now the company’s third largest holding. There’s also continued buying in stocks such as Delta, Macy’s and The New York Times. And homebuilders has become a real focus for Berkshire. After the outright purchase of Taylor-Morrison, it’s buying shares of both Lennar and DR Horton. Definitely a trend to watch!

By the way, Berkshire’s stakes in Apple and Alphabet are collectively worth more than $100 billion! Pretty amazing from the guy who once was against investing in tech.

Bill Ackman’s 6 recent buys?

Another billionaire investor worth watching has unveiled some fresh purchases. He bought back into Netflix, which he famously sold a few years ago. He basically says Netflix has won the streaming wars and he’s not fighting it. That “moat” theme also plays into some of his other new buys. They include Visa and Mastercard, two dominant toll takers in the payments economy. He also bought into NYSE-parent Intercontinental Exchange, which he sees as a predictable cash flow generator. He likes Alcon, which has dominance in the surgical vision and contact lens areas. And he picked up shares of S&P Global, which took a hit on AI concerns.

Workday worth watching?

Reports of a possible private equity buyout of Workday recently got analysts wondering if we’ve seen a bottom for software stocks. Not because they won’t continue to be disrupted by AI, but because at a certain point, their valuations could appeal to opportunistic buyers. In the case of Workday, that opportunistic investor is reportedly Silver Lake.

At the end of the day, it’s probably better to look at these stocks on a case by case basis. As an example, Bloomberg Intelligence looked at a group of application software businesses that it feels have very low risk of long-term AI disruption. That group includes Workday (key to a lot of HR functions at big companies), Salesforce, Shopify, SAP and Salesforce. On the other hand, it sees stocks like Adobe and Intuit having a higher level of disruption risk.

Meanwhile, Keybanc put out a report following the reports to share a few names it thinks could be takeover targets. Those include: Gitlab, Procor, PTC and UiPath.

Could Nebius, IREN enjoy SpaceX-like valuations?

SpaceX is making a lot of money renting out computing power to AI companies. So much so that analysts are increasingly looking at that as the biggest driver for the business, rather than, say, Starlink. Worth nothing, though, SpaceX trades at a much richer valuation to purer plays in neocloud. Businesses such as CoreWeave, Nebius, and IREN. Obviously SpaceX has a lot of other components to its business, which perhaps warrant the pricier multiple. But it does seem like a gap in the market’s thinking that will have to be better addressed in time. Namely, do those other companies deserve richer valuations? In SpaceX’s case, it’s been able to charge more because of a short-term rental approach, which those other players are starting to adopt. The market reaction to that will definitely be worth watching.

This week in The Inside Take

Every week in The Inside Take, we go deeper on how the pros approach the market. If you like this newsletter, you’ll love the paid section. This week:

Bruce Campbell’s picks. All 8 of his growth stocks, for those who want a written breakdown of his recommendations.

A bullish take on Nvidia. Why one analyst sees big upside.

In-depth analysis of September. More on why it’s generally tough month, plus all the monthly data for the past 25 years.

Energy stocks still cheap? A closer look at the sector’s valuation compared to the rest of the market.

Should you buy Moderna? Wall Street reactions after that stock’s massive surge this week.

How to play cyber attacks on utilities? What pros are saying about stocks that could benefit from higher spending to defend against water system attacks (we’ve seen a few recently).

Next week’s Ticker Take guest. Be first to know (including a reveal on one of our guest’s picks)!

[Become a paid member →]

Give us a 5 star rating!

If you like what we do across platforms, there’s also lots you can do to support us that doesn’t cost a cent.

As an example, have you listened to the podcast edition of Ticker Take? It’s a perfect investing companion if you’re on the go. And if you give us a 5-star rating and message me, you’ll immediately be entered in our next contest giveaway!

Connect with us everywhere!

Apple Podcasts: Apple Podcasts!

Spotify: Spotify!

Instagram: Instagram!

TikTok: TikTok!

X: X!

Website: Ticker Take!

Disclaimer: this content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or professional advice. Always consult a qualified professional regarding your individual situation.

Read more

How’s your summer been?

Hope you’re enjoying! Not to be the bearer of bad news, but we’re steadily progressing our way through this splendid time of year. Whether you follow the meteorological or astronomical summer schedule, we’ve already passed the mid-point. But here’s the good news for your portfolio. The stock market has steadily moved higher. I know that’s not true of all stocks and tech’s been on a wild ride. But since the beginning of June, the S&P 500 has posted a positive return. And in Canada, the TSX has had an even stronger showing.

It’s hard to suggest the bull run is done, when investors have done more shifting than selling.

I know there are some loud bears out there, but if you’re making the case for stocks, there are number of positive things you can point to.

We’ve talked recently about the strength for earnings overall.

The research team at RBC Capital noted this week that profit growth for the S&P this quarter is tracking at 32%, which is up from 30% in the first quarter. Combine that with a reasonable economic backdrop and RBC sees the S&P reaching 8,150 within a year.

Going a bit deeper under the hood, Citadel Securities had some interesting research this week on leveraged bets. After a big unwind last month, it says systematic buyers are getting ready to load up on stocks again. It also notes that as we move through earnings season, watch for companies to execute on some of their stock buyback plans, which could also add some fuel to the upside.

Bulls emboldened as AI bets pay off

JPMorgan had an interesting call this week. The strategy team there boosted its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 8,000, based on growing evidence that AI bets are paying off for the tech giants. JPMorgan specifically cited cloud business growth for the likes of Google, Amazon and Microsoft. It’s pretty logical, actually. Takes me back to the old adage you’ve gotta spend money to make money. While not financial advice, investors should probably avoid freaking out about AI spending if the biggest AI spenders can continue to prove their generating solid ROI.

As an added note, CoreWeave (which rents out AI computing power) reported strong results this week. That’s more evidence that AI demand is not slowing down. Super Micro also provided a sales outlook that topped the most bullish forecasts. And if you’re a Nebius-watcher, you probably saw that sales for the company’s cloud business in the second quarter shot up more than 500%.

8 stocks of founder-led businesses worth buying?

There’s been a lot of evidence over the years that investing in founder-led companies can lead to outsized returns. We enjoy that theme on Ticker Take, so we came back to it this week. Michael Monaghan, who has built one of the largest and most comprehensive databases of founder-led stocks was our guest. Not only is Michael a veteran market watcher, he’s also a successful founder himself. So he has proven recipe for spotting winners. He walked us through 8 stocks of companies that are still deeply connected to their founders. You can check it out here!

Paid members: the full written breakdown of all 8 stocks — with Michael’s reasoning on each — is below in The Inside Take.

Nvidia’s new deal with Wall Street

If you needed another reminder of how costly the AI boom has become, look no further than Nvidia’s announcement this week with some of Wall Street’s biggest firms. Companies like Apollo, Blackstone and BlackRock helping Nvidia raise massive amounts of money so its customers can finance the cost of computing power. These kinds of deals have left some feeling uneasy about the circular nature of AI spending. Caroline had a great breakdown in AI Under The Hood this week.

Analysts share bullish takes on recent IPO

SpaceX going public sucked a lot of headlines away from other IPO’s. But analysts are equally bullish on another recent public market graduate. Data centre operator Csquare went public in July and research firms began publishing their reports on the company this week. While some of the assets behind CSquare have been around for awhile, analysts believe the company is in great shape to grow, given the AI boom. It’s also backed by investment giant Brookfield. One of the most bullish takes comes from Bank of America, which thinks the shares could climb to $46. Most of the street, on average, has lower expectations. However, pretty much every analyst initiated coverage at a price above Square’s IPO price. As always, take analyst calls with a grain of salt. Especially considering some of these firms have investment banking arms that were involved in the initial public offering.

Air Canada’s stock surge

Airline stocks are known for their turbulence, but Air Canada has enjoyed some recent momentum. A Bloomberg News report helped kick things off, with the media company reporting Air Canada could sell a stake in its Aeroplan loyalty program to Blackstone. On the news, Scotiabank’s analyst quickly did some math and determined the market was not fully pricing in the value of Aeroplan and boosted his target price on the stock to $33.50.

Less than 24 hours later, Air Canada reported earnings and confirmed Blackstone would indeed acquired 25% of Aeroplan. While some of the low hanging fruit in AC’s stock has been plucked, it does seem like investors may continue to re-rate the shares with the deal now official.

Speaking of stock surges…

A friendly reminder that these kinds or returns are not normal! But given the run-ups, I was curious how the street felt about these stocks going forward. Interestingly, the average analyst forecast for all of them is higher than where the stocks are currently trading (although less so for Dell and Rackspace). Of course, analysts tend to behave like lemmings, so take their forecasts with a grain of salt.

Congrats to our contest winner!

Congratulations to Geoff Furniss, the winner of our Ticker Take contest. We’re very happy for Geoff, as he’s been a loyal Ticker Take viewer and we so appreciate his support. As advertised, Geoff won an hour-long conversation. Thanks so much to everyone who participated! We’ll be sure to do more contests in the future. Stay tuned!

This week in The Inside Take

Every week in The Inside Take, we go deeper on how the pros approach the market. This week:

Michael Monaghan’s picks. All 8 of his founder-led stock names, for those who want the picks without watching.

AST vs Rocket Lab. The street consensus.

The Allstate debate. Why a long-time investor is sticking with the shares, despite a bearish call from Citi.

Two must-own U.S. financials. A veteran investor’s top picks.

Must-own Canadian stocks. Some of the most recommended stocks on Ticker Take.

Next week’s Ticker Take guest. Be first to know!

[Become a paid member →]

Connect with us everywhere!

Apple Podcasts: Apple Podcasts!

Spotify: Spotify!

Instagram: Instagram!

TikTok: TikTok!

X: X!

Website: Ticker Take!

Disclaimer: this content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or professional advice. Always consult a qualified professional regarding your individual situation.

Read more

The Market Finds More Than Its Footing

Remember that beating momentum stocks took a few weeks ago? Chip stocks were slaughtered and the Nasdaq-100 slid into a technical correction. Well, the rebound came fast. Here we are in early August and we’ve seen record highs for indices, such as the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A few things prompted the return. Nearly 90 percent of U.S. companies reporting this earnings season have beaten estimates. That’s generally a support for stocks. Meanwhile, hedge funds that had been dumping tech a month ago are now buying it back at the fastest pace in years.

Then, there’s the AI benefit to broader businesses. Morgan Stanley says companies actually using AI well are seeing a nice boost to profits. I’ve included some of the stocks that standout to them further down in the newsletter.

As for the month ahead, history offers a mixed verdict. Going back to 1793, August has ranked among the better months for stocks. And in the past decade, the S&P has risen 6 times and the TSX 7 times in August. So some positives there. But June and July both finished negative for the S&P this year, which, according to Carson Group, has historically led to weaker markets the rest of the year about two-thirds of the time.

What’s my Ticker Take? I’d say failing anything else, the powerful profit story could limit the bear advance in the home stretch of the year. But, as always, we’ll see.

Pick trends, not stocks!

That’s the take from Matt Orton of Raymond James Investment Management. Matt joined us on the just-released episode of Ticker Take to talk about how his investment approach begins with finding megatrends. From there, he looks for stocks riding those trends. There are three trends in particular that are top of mind for him: AI, an aging population and where governments are spending money. He highlights eight stocks in particular he likes for the long-term. You can check the full video out below!

Paid members: the full written breakdown of all 8 stocks — with Matt’s reasoning on each — is below in The Inside Take.

Amazon’s doing what we said it would

We’ll take a victory lap on Amazon. Not only have we talked about how liked the stock is on Wall Street, we literally took you inside their AI chip lab to explain how AWS is benefiting from the AI boom. If you haven’t checked out that episode of Ticker Take, please do! It will help explain the biggest growth driver at the company right now, which as you may have seen, resulted in Amazon’s market cap crossing $3 trillion for the first time.

The power of Palantir

I think, on average, you should try to avoid falling for headlines. People like me try to get your attention with catchy title. But up until earnings day, much of the recent reporting around Palantir was driven by the stock’s sell-off. The problem with that was it distracted you from what was actually happening under the hood. On a related note, Caroline did a great AI Under The Hood breakdown after Palantir reported this week. Check it out!

Caterpillar’s Climb

Cat doesn’t make chips or run data centers, but it’s become one of the more interesting AI stocks around, easily outperforming every other Dow name over the past year. That run had investors nervous heading into earnings this week.

But quarterly profits beat estimates by a wide margin thanks to power. Generators and turbines have quietly become Caterpillar’s biggest business by sales. Data centers need constant, heavy electricity, both as backup and increasingly as primary supply.

Paid subscribers — we included the street reaction for you down below!

The AI Trade’s Next Phase

Earlier, we mentioned AI adoption as one of the forces behind this rally. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson says the AI trade is shifting to companies who use AI well. His team found 40 percent of AI adopters cited a measurable earnings benefit this season, up from 21 percent a year ago. Paid members get Wilson’s full screen and 15 stocks that made the list below.

Shopify silences Meta worries

We recently shared some analysis by the research team at Rothschild, which downgraded Shopify on fears Meta could build a competing tool for small business storefronts, ads, and payments.

But looking at Shopify’s impressive results this week, it seems like a muted worry.

Shopify surged on its better than expected results. So what should investors think about the stock now? We put a full breakdown in our paid section.

5 takeaways from SpaceX’s first report card

There was lots of attention on SpaceX’s first set of financial results as a public company. And rightly so, considering how big of an IPO it had, not to mention its huge valuation. From my vantage point, here are 5 takes from this week:

1) Sales are surging - up 92% year over year, as demand for satellites and AI data centres continues to fuel growth.

2) Costs are surging too — building all of this stuff ain’t cheap.

3) Musk’s big number - Elon told investors SpaceX could reach a $100 billion annual revenue run rate by year end, versus Street estimates closer to $39 billion for the full year.

4) Starlink takes aim at telcos - SpaceX confirmed plans to build a ground-based mobile network using newly acquired spectrum, aiming to go head to head with the major US wireless carriers.

5) Investor expectations are running high - not a shocker of a statement, considering all of the IPO attention. But the stock did initially struggle after the results. The near-term test to watch now will be all of that locked-up stock from early holders and insiders. Do they still believe or are they ready to sell? We’ll find out!

Speaking of Musk…let’s talk AMD

AMD reported a huge quarter this week. The business is clearly moving in the right direction and benefiting from the AI boom. Lisa Su is one of the sharpest CEOs around and has spent the year locking in massive deals with the likes of OpenAI, Meta and Anthrophic.

The stock’s initial post-earnings hiccups could be chalked up to a sell the news scenario. But additionally, the company went head to head with Elon Musk, as SpaceX reported earnings the same day. Musk said his company would build exclusively on Nvidia going forward, walking back comments from earlier this year when he said Tesla and SpaceX would likely keep buying chips from both Nvidia and AMD. Obviously he’s just one buyer, but he’s a powerful one.

Sizing up the profit picture

Tesla was one of the top picks in last week’s Ticker Take episode with Ash Karbasfrooshan. Be sure to check it out so you can find out Ash’s bullish take. It got us curious about how Tesla’s profit picture compares to some of the other top names in tech. As it turns out, Tesla’s profit growth is near the top of the expected list. Mind you, it’s coming off much lower levels. And Apple being able to grow its profits by more than 50% over five years given where they already are is truly impressive. But don’t forget that profit growth can be a key catalyst for stocks over the long term. By the way, Ash is a fan of many of these stocks, including Nvidia and Amazon.

A smart take on Disney

A few weeks ago on Ticker Take, Lorne Steinberg made the case that Disney was mispriced. His point was the stock was trading as if the company is in decline, when in actuality it isn’t.

This week, Disney beat profit estimates for a second straight quarter under new CEO Josh D’Amaro. Profit at the entertainment division, which includes Disney Plus and the film studio, jumped sharply on strong streaming subscriptions and improving margins. Theme park profit grew too, led by a strong quarter at its US parks. Steinberg had pointed to the strength of its theme parks and the fact that Disney has a powerhouse streaming business that wasn’t getting much value in the company’s stock price.

By the way, he’s not selling on the news. He sees more long-term value for those who believe in Disney from here.

IMAX: Wall Street’s Summer Favorite

Wall Street has been in love with IMAX for a while now, and the last few months have only reinforced why. The stock is up sharply since the summer, powered by strong results and the record-breaking debut of Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey.”

I’ve known CEO Rich Gelfond for years. He’s always been a great cheerleader for the company, but investors have not always noticed. Interestingly, a few months ago, there was chatter that he was quietly fielding interest from potential buyers. The press threw out a huge list of potential suitors (including Apple, Sony, Netflix, Amazon, Cinemark and AMC).

Given the recent stock run-up, there might be less of need for IMAX to prove its worth and ultimately lock in a sale.

At the same time, the stock is now trading above the average 12-month target price among Wall Street firms. So analysts will be searching for another catalyst to justify any revisions.

Perhaps “Dune: Part Three” will be that next catalyst! I for one am hyped for that one!

Gold’s Missing Piece

Gold has struggled this year, but some strategists think it’s found a bottom. Deutsche Bank is sticking with its year-end target of $4,600 an ounce, based on the firm’s belief we are still in an upward momentum market for bullion. But there are a few factors that would likely be needed to see sizeable upside. One would be central banks stepping up their buying of gold. And the second would be a greater market belief that Fed rate cuts are coming, which now is out of consensus.

Winner announcement next week!

Thank you to everyone who entered our contest to win a private, one-hour conversation - both in person at BlossomCon and right here on Substack. Our winner can bring their questions, ideas, challenges, or anything else they’d like to discuss! We were overwhelmed by all of the submissions, for which we are deeply appreciative! We’ll have the official winner announcement one week from today! Stay tuned!

This week in The Inside Take

Every week in The Inside Take, we go deeper on how the pros approach the market. This week:

Matt Orton’s picks. All 8 of his megatrend stock names, for those who want the picks without watching.

Street takes on Shopify, Cat. Analyst reactions to this week’s earnings.

August stock picks from top firms. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley investment ideas for your portfolio.

How to pick a stock in 30 seconds. A few tools for your toolkit.

Next week’s Ticker Take guest. Be first to know!

[Become a paid member →]

Connect with us everywhere!

Apple Podcasts: Apple Podcasts!

Spotify: Spotify!

Instagram: Instagram!

TikTok: TikTok!

X: X!

Website: Ticker Take!

Disclaimer: this content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or professional advice. Always consult a qualified professional regarding your individual situation.

Read more

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A lot to process...

If you feel like you’re getting whipsawed right now, you’re not alone. Chip stocks selling off on China worries, oil prices on a roller coaster ride, mega-cap earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon, plus a Fed decision on top it all of it. That’s a lot for one week. July tends to be a great month for stocks, but this time around, things were much rockier. Still, you have to ask yourself if anything has truly changed? If not, there is an argument that earnings power and spending power (particularly from tech and chip companies) could act as a floor for the market.

Also worth noting: unsurprisingly, tech ETFs bled hard last week, but broad equity ETFs still pulled in sizeable funds. Also, fixed income and gold ETFs had their strongest week of inflows since mid-April, according to Bloomberg data. The point is that investors are not fleeing the market, they’re shifting.

As an side note, I did some analysis on how many tech stocks are now cheaper than their 5-year average, based on P/E ratios. There are lots of names that made the list, including: Nvidia, Broadcom, Meta, Amazon, Micron, ASML, Applovin, Netflix, Taiwan Semi, Oracle, SoFi, Shopify, Uber, ServiceNow and Texas Instruments. So if you liked these stocks at higher valuations, you have to ask yourself how you feel about them now.

Swinging for the fences

Here’s some additional perspective if you’re on the fence about tech these days. Ash Karbasfrooshan built his fortune taking big swings.The founder and CEO of WatchMojo built a YouTube channel that now reaches 100 million people a month. These days, he’s also trying to bring Major League Baseball’s Expos back to Montreal.

As for the stock market, he’s long been a dedicated investor.

Half of his portfolio sits with professional managers, handling the safer, blue-chip stuff. The other half he runs himself, concentrated in growth names in tech and digital media, the world he’s spent 20 years inside.

This week on Ticker Take, Ash walks us through his approach to big bets and shares 9 stocks he calls his home runs. Enjoy the full episode!

Paid members: the full written breakdown of all 9 stocks — with Ash’s view on each — is below in The Inside Take.

Could Quantum break the Internet?

Many investors have fallen in love with Quantum computing stocks. They represent a unique pocket in tech, in that the underlying companies have gone public earlier in their life cycle than most technology stocks in recent years. So it’s kind of like getting that potential growth we saw early on for young companies during the dot com boom.

The question, though, is how far along we are in the tech rollout?

Remember Nvidia’s Jensen Huang predicted early last year that it could be 15-30 years before prime time — only to walk those comments back by March of that same year.

We did a deep dive on the sector on Ticker Take with Inder Singh, the Chief Financial Officer of IonQ, one of the leading companies in the field. He explains what a quantum computer actually does, why it takes us beyond the AI boom, and how IonQ went from thirty people and a dream to five generations of machines running at customer sites. You can watch the full story below. Thanks, btw, to our friends at the NYSE for having us on NYSE Live to discuss this too!

Paid members: there was a new analyst call on Quantum computing stocks this week. We’ve included it in the paid section, along with the street consensus on IONQ!

The price that could bring SpaceX and Tesla together?

RBC analyst Tom Narayan had a note this week, where he estimated the price that could bring Tesla and SpaceX together: $480. As in, SpaceX buying Tesla for $480 per share. He sees that as a price Tesla shareholders would accept and one that SpaceX shareholders could stomach. Whether it actually happens is another story. But he notes SpaceX is losing money and may keep losing money for years. Tesla’s cash could cover that. In exchange, Tesla shareholders would get exposure to SpaceX’s growth, while they wait for Robotaxi and Optimus to pay off. There’s also a savings angle, given a chip venture between the two companies could save over $1 trillion by 2050.

Of course, in the short term, SpaceX may need to focus more on winning over investors after the stock’s recent slump. We included Wall Street’s current call on SpaceX shares in our paid section.

Win an hour with me!

Congrats to our friends at Blossom for hosting another awesome BlossomCon! And thanks to everyone who entered our “Let’s Spend an Hour Together” contest at the event or here on Substack. Caroline and I will be announcing the winner soon! Looking forward to spending some quality time with one of you :)

This week in The Inside Take

Every week in The Inside Take, we go deeper on how the pros approach the market. This week:

Ash Karbasfrooshan’s full portfolio. All 9 home run stocks, with his reasoning on each (for those who want the picks without watching the video).

Wall Street’s SpaceX scorecard. The full breakdown of analyst ratings and price targets.

Stocks where our guests disagree. We’ll tell you about two Ticker Take stocks that tend to spark the most guest debates!

3 stocks built for a choppy market. Wolfe Research’s screen for companies with the fundamentals to hold up when the market gets shaky.

Connect with us everywhere!

Apple Podcasts: Apple Podcasts!

Spotify: Spotify!

Instagram: Instagram!

TikTok: TikTok!

X: X!

Website: Ticker Take!

Disclaimer: this content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or professional advice. Always consult a qualified professional regarding your individual situation.

Read more

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chapters:

0:00 The machine that could break the internet

0:44 The next big leap

3:17 What it could do for you

4:47 The company at the front

6:55 The power, and the risk

10:33 Why the money is moving

13:51 Where this goes

Subscribe to the Ticker Take channel to stay on top of innovations shaping the investing world!

Have you signed up to be a paid subscriber to our investing newsletter? Our free version is still available, but paid members get "The Inside Take," with deep dives, briefings, guest notes and more!

● Investing newsletter: https://jonerlichman.substack.com/ 

● Behind-The-Scenes newsletter: https://carolinelesley.substack.com/

● Apple Podcasts - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ticker-take/id1832785387

● Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/2xrbo2v18T7jYr9DSZ3GUf

● TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@jonerlichman?lang=en 

● Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/jonerlichman/?hl=en 

● X - https://x.com/JonErlichman

● Website - https://www.tickertakeonline.com/

Exec Producer/Co-Host: Caroline Lesley  - https://www.instagram.com/caroline.lesley/

About me:

I’ve covered the stock market for more than 25 years and worked at places like Bloomberg and Fortune.  I launched my YouTube channel to share with you the investing insights I've had access to! Why Ticker Take? Well, there are thousands of stocks. They all have different TICKER symbols. We explore lots of them and talk to experts…getting their…ticker take!

#stocks #quantumcomputing #ionq

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome! If you found this after attending the Blossom Social Investor Event at Rogers Stadium, thanks for stopping by. And if you’re discovering it another way, I’m glad you’re here.

As a thank you to everyone in our community, I’d love to continue the conversation with one of you.

I’m inviting one person to join me for a private one-hour conversation. Bring your questions, ideas, challenges, or anything else you’d like to discuss. Whether you’re looking for a different perspective, feedback on a project, or simply a thoughtful conversation, I’m looking forward to connecting.

How to Enter

Click the button below and submit your name and email address.

ENTER THE DRAW

One entry per person.

Entries close: Monday, July 27, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET.

After the entry period closes, one winner will be selected at random and contacted by email to arrange a time that works for both of us.

Thanks for being part of this community, and good luck!

— Jon

Official Rules

• No purchase necessary.

• One entry per person.

• Entries must be submitted by Monday, July 27, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET.

• The winner will be selected at random from all eligible entries.

• The winner will be notified by email.

The big momentum unwind, and what comes next

Ok, so the stuff everyone piled into earlier this year — chips, AI infrastructure, anything riding the “momentum” trade — has looked rocky of late. Wells Fargo says July ranks among the biggest momentum reversal months in market history, based on data going back to 1990. It wasn’t limited to chips either. Infrastructure, renewables, even rare earth stocks got caught up in the selling, which tells you this was more about investors unwinding crowded bets than anything actually wrong with these businesses.

Heading into the back half of July, two big desks are giving very different answers on what happens next. UBS says the selloff is close to done and is telling clients to start buying the dip. Some hedge funds have already cut their momentum bets — think names like Broadcom, Oracle and Datadog — bringing positioning back down to April levels. UBS’s view: most of the selling is already out of the system. Citi, meanwhile, disagrees. It says positioning in Nasdaq stocks just hit a one month low, and warns the unwind “may not be over yet,” especially since many of those long positions are still sitting on losses. Chip stocks did bounce, though, after a period of pain. Conclusion: the next couple of weeks should make clear which side is right.

The hunt for 100-baggers

Most investors would be happy to match the market. Eric Jackson wants to beat it by a hundred times.

The founder of EMJ Capital has built his career hunting for 100-baggers, stocks that can climb 100 times from where he buys them. His floor for a new position is a 50x return over five years. His target is 100x. As Eric puts it: “That’s what gets my juices flowing.”

His edge isn’t a spreadsheet. He leans on AI to screen for ideas, comparing it to a watering hole where he knows the elephants will show up, but from there it comes down to human judgment. His most famous call: buying Carvana after it had collapsed to under $4, now up over 100x. This week on Ticker Take, Eric walks us through how he finds these stocks, how big he’s willing to size a position, and the stomach the strategy requires, then shares 10 names currently in his portfolio. Enjoy the full episode!

Paid members: the full written breakdown of all 10 stocks — with Eric’s reasoning on each — is below in The Inside Take.

Canada’s stocks surge, despite Trump tension

Trump’s tariff spat with Canada was back in the headlines this week, with a fresh 50% tariff threat on a batch of Canadian goods. It’s the latest chapter in a fight that’s been going on for over a year now. CIBC put it plainly this week, saying they expect tariffs are “here to stay” for at least the next couple of years, regardless of how any one dispute gets resolved.

Despite that tension, the TSX has actually outpaced the S&P 500, and by a wide margin once you count dividends. The reason comes down to what’s actually inside the Canadian market. Nearly 70% of the TSX is banks, insurers, pipelines, oil and gold, the kind of old economy businesses that don’t care much about AI spending or chip exports. Financials alone have roughly doubled over the past two years including dividends. Compare that to the S&P 500, where tech alone makes up close to 40% of the index. Two very different markets, and lately, the old economy one has been putting up new economy numbers. For investors, the lesson isn’t to predict the next tariff headline. It’s to stop treating each new threat as a surprise and start treating it as a recurring cost of doing business between two countries that trade almost a trillion dollars a year with each other.

Meta’s AI ambitions a red flag for Shopify?

Speaking of Canada, Shopify was on the receiving end of a bearish call this week. Rothschild’s Dominic Ball downgraded the stock to neutral, cutting his price target from $160 to $130, on fears that Meta will build its own AI tool letting small businesses create a storefront, run ads, and handle payments — essentially doing what Shopify does today. Ball thinks up to half of Shopify’s US volume could be exposed to that kind of competition. Not everyone agrees. Morgan Stanley came out with a more bullish view this week. Also worth noting: Shopify showed up in our free cash flow growth list a few weeks back as one of the market’s expected cash machines.

Nvidia’s stake lights up Nebius

Nebius, one of this year’s top performing AI stocks, was on the move this week after filings revealed Nvidia owns a 9.3% stake in the company. Nebius builds and runs its own AI data centers across Europe and the US, counts Microsoft and Meta among its customers, and recently closed a $775 million debt deal to help fund its expansion, which eased investor worries about future share dilution. This week’s development isn’t entirely new, since Nvidia’s investment was already known back in March. That said, seeing the actual stake spelled out on paper reminded investors just how close these two companies really are. An upcoming catalyst for the stock could be next month’s earnings report. Wall Street mostly likes what it sees, with price targets from several analysts climbing throughout July.

Street sours on Adobe, Salesforce

More analysts are turning bearish on Adobe and Salesforce and the reason remains AI. Morgan Stanley just downgraded both stocks, joining at least five other firms that have cut their rating on Adobe since June alone. Adobe’s average analyst score has dropped to its lowest level since the 1990s, and Salesforce’s is at its lowest since 2012. The worry isn’t that AI is bad for these companies, it’s that AI powered competitors could erode their pricing power and growth over time, especially since Salesforce’s own AI product, Agentforce, hasn’t yet moved the needle enough to offset concerns about its legacy business. That’s not to say everyone is bearish. If you caught our Ticker Take episode recently with Lorne Steinberg, he made a strong case for Adobe over the long term. But figuring out where we are in the AI transition could make a big difference to your portfolio.

Our paid members received access to our six layer breakdown of the AI economy. Be sure to sign up so you too can get similar analysis.

Alibaba’s ties to Moonshot

Chinese startup Moonshot AI is getting lots of attention for Kimi K3. It’s a huge new AI model that anyone can download and build on, rather than being locked away and only accessible through a paid service. By its own benchmarks it still trails the top models from OpenAI and Anthropic overall, but it beat several rivals outright on coding and agent tasks, and it’s notably cheaper to run. Demand was strong enough that Moonshot briefly paused new subscriptions.

That success circles back to Alibaba, which owns roughly a third of Moonshot and helps supply the cloud computing power behind it. Days after K3 launched, Alibaba said its own Qwen model is going open weight too, a move some analysts see as a way to drive more business to Alibaba’s cloud unit as developers build on top of both models.

Caroline did a fantastic deep dive for AI Under The Hood:

Is momentum brewing in Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is down almost half from its peak last November, and on a risk adjusted basis it’s actually been the worst performer of any major asset over the past year, worse than the Nikkei, the S&P 500, gold, even silver.

But bad returns and quiet sentiment can sometimes set up the opposite move. Bloomberg strategist Simon White notes the share of major cryptocurrencies near their one year highs has dropped to its lowest level since 2022, meaning most of the space has been beaten down and ignored. At the same time, Bitcoin ETF inflows have picked up to nearly a billion dollars a week, the highest since May, and Bitcoin has risen 3 to 4% in recent days even as stocks fell.

Quiet sentiment, fresh inflows, and price strength while stocks wobble. Some strategists think that combination favors Bitcoin in the weeks ahead. No guarantees here, but sometimes getting ignored is exactly what sets a market up for its next move.

Come say hello in Toronto at BlossomCon!

If you’re in the Toronto area, I’ll be joining my friends at Blossom at this weekend’s BlossomCon. As Blossom users know, it’s an awesome event taking place at Rogers Centre on Saturday (July 25th). See you there!

This week in The Inside Take

Every week in The Inside Take, we go deeper on how the pros approach the market. This week:

Eric Jackson’s full portfolio. All 10 names in his hunt for 100-baggers, with his reasoning on each, for those who want the picks without watching.

Cult vs. Meme. Eric’s own framework for telling a real turnaround from a stock riding pure hype, and three quick checks you can run on anything trending for the wrong reasons.

Why sitting still can beat trying to time it. The exact cost of missing the market’s best days, and a story from the head of a major pension fund about the investors who do best by doing nothing at all.

[Become a paid member →]

Connect with us everywhere!

Apple Podcasts: Apple Podcasts!

Spotify: Spotify!

Instagram: Instagram!

TikTok: TikTok!

X: X!

Website: Ticker Take!

Disclaimer: this content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or professional advice. Always consult a qualified professional regarding your individual situation.

Read more

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Playing defense? The old playbook is broken.

Hope you’re having a great week!

Playing defense in the stock market used to be simple. You bought staples, utilities, telecoms and pharma, and you rode out the storm. That playbook has stopped working — and this week on Ticker Take, one of Wall Street’s smartest strategists explains why.

Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research and former Chief US Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, points out that those traditional defensive sectors made up about 30% of the S&P 500 twenty-five years ago. Today they’re closer to 10%, and many of the old defensive names have been missing earnings more often than the rest of the market. As Adam puts it: “It’s like hitting an iron off the tee to play safe and then hooking it out of bounds anyway.”

So what actually protects you when markets sell off? Adam walks us through his new defensive framework — and 7 stocks that make his list, including a software giant and a payments network you might not expect. Enjoy the full episode!

Paid members: the full written breakdown of all 7 stocks — with Adam’s reasoning on each — is below in The Inside Take.

Which companies could see free cash flow surge?

We always find it a helpful exercise to review analyst forecasts for financial growth. And with growth companies, it especially helps to look at free cash flow — the money left over after a business pays its bills, and the fuel for buybacks, dividends and reinvestment.

We looked at current analyst estimates for the next five years. Companies expected to grow their free cash flow 250% or more include Broadcom, CrowdStrike, ARM Holdings, Cloudflare, AMD and Palantir. And a shoutout to Microsoft and Alphabet for making the list despite already being absolute monsters.

One note of perspective: these are forecasts, not promises. But knowing where the street sees the cash piling up is a useful map. We’ve put our full ranked list — 25 names — in the paid section below.

Coke or Pepsi?

Sometimes it’s fun to review the street consensus on industry rivals. The goal? See which stock analysts expect to outpace the other over the coming year. Nothing very scientific about this — it’s a trend assessment. We looked at 11 famous matchups and highlighted which name, on average, research teams believe will deliver better 12-month stock performance:

Notice the pattern? In several matchups, the street favors the underdog — a reminder that analysts are handicapping the next 12 months, not ranking who’s been the better company.

Be careful, or inflation will eat your nest egg

There’s plenty of evidence that inflation eats into your money over time. And when you examine it in pure numbers, it’s downright depressing. If you had $100,000 twenty-five years ago and simply held it in cash through today, its purchasing power would now be about $53,000, based on US government data.

That’s another reminder that investing is one of the best ways to offset what increasingly feels like the rapidly diminishing value of money.

What do you need to retire at 65?

On a related note, we often get questions about what’s an adequate amount to retire on. Since everyone lives differently, there’s no single answer. But a general rule of thumb: prepare to withdraw about 4% of your savings each year, over a 30-year retirement.

In that scenario, if you’re comfortable living on $40,000 a year, you’d ideally have $1,000,000 invested. Want $100,000 a year? That points to $2,500,000. Upwards of $200,000 a year? The math suggests a $5,000,000 cushion.

Big numbers, obviously. But worth keeping in mind when assessing your ultimate investing goals. This is not financial advice — just perspective!

Where the world’s wealthiest people live — and why

If you want to find the wealthiest people on the planet, look to Switzerland. The average Swiss adult is worth about US$910,000, the highest in the world, followed by the United States and Luxembourg. That’s according to the new UBS Global Wealth Report, which found global wealth grew more than 10% in 2025 — the fastest pace since 2017.

Why do people in some countries get so much richer? A big part of the answer is what they own. People in the wealthiest countries hold more of their money in investments like stocks and funds, which had a strong year. People whose wealth mostly sits in their home — true for many Canadians — missed much of that growth.

Here’s the twist, though: averages can mislead, because a small number of billionaires pulls the number up. Look at the typical person instead, and Canada ranks 7th in the world — ahead of Switzerland — while the US falls to 15th.

The takeaway for everyday investors: getting your money into markets, not just your house, is how wealth really grows.

5 top holdings of well-known investors

Ever wonder what the most famous investors actually own? Thanks to regulatory filings, we can peek. Here are the top five holdings of five well-known names:

Warren Buffett — Berkshire Hathaway: Apple (22%), American Express (17%), Coca-Cola (12%), Bank of America (10%), Chevron (7%)

Bill Ackman — Pershing Square: Brookfield (18%), Amazon (17%), Uber (16%), Microsoft (15%), Restaurant Brands (12%)

Cathie Wood — ARK Innovation ETF: Tesla (10%), Tempus AI (6%), CRISPR Therapeutics (5%), Robinhood (5%), AMD (5%)

David Tepper — Appaloosa: Amazon (15%), Micron (9%), Alphabet (8%), Uber (8%), Taiwan Semiconductor (8%)

Stanley Druckenmiller — Duquesne: Natera (18%), Insmed (6%), Taiwan Semiconductor (5%), YPF (4%), BBB Foods (3%)

Source: SEC 13F filings (Mar 31, 2026); ARK daily (July 2026).

Two things jump out. Amazon and Uber each appear in two of these portfolios. And the most concentrated bets belong to the two oldest hands — Buffett and Druckenmiller both have nearly a fifth of their portfolio in a single name.

This week in The Inside Take

Every week in The Inside Take, we go deeper on how the pros approach the market. This week:

Adam Parker’s 7 defensive stocks. The full written breakdown — every name, and his reasoning on each — for those who want the message without watching.

The free cash flow leaderboard. All 25 names ranked by expected 5-year growth. The number one name is expected to grow free cash flow more than 1,800% — and it’s not who you’d guess.

Who the pros learn from. We tallied every investor our guests name-dropped across all episodes of Ticker Take. Buffett wins, of course — but two of the names near the top might surprise you.

[Become a paid member →]

Connect with us everywhere!

Apple Podcasts: Apple Podcasts!

Spotify: Spotify!

Instagram: Instagram!

TikTok: TikTok!

X: X!

Website: Ticker Take!

Disclaimer: this content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or professional advice. Always consult a qualified professional regarding your individual situation.

Read more

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Inside Take is the paid half of this newsletter, and it is what keeps Ticker Take independent. Paid members get the deeper read on every story below, the analyst calls, the price targets, the why behind the headline. Become a paid member → to get the full picture each week.

Buckle up?

You might not need a theme park trip this summer to get your roller coaster ride. After a huge rally for tech stocks, daily price swings are picking up. And this week brought a fresh wild card: rising tensions in the Middle East, which once again pushed up oil prices. The situation is changing by the hour, so we won’t pretend to know where it lands. Just know that geopolitics is back on the market’s radar.

Here’s the good news, though. The S&P 500 just rose 15% in the second quarter — its best quarter since 2020. According to Carson Group, which analyzed market data dating back to 1950, when the market is up 10% or more in Q2, it’s only been negative in Q3 once. And it’s never been negative in Q4. Plus, the average gain in the final six months of the year is 11.7%, versus a typical 4.9%.

Assuming investors stick with stocks, the question is whether they stick with the hottest trade or rotate into other sectors. RBC said this week its clients have been moving into lesser-hyped areas, like healthcare and consumer staples. We posted a breakdown of the sectors that tend to do well in July in last week’s paid section.

Keep an eye on how the market reacts to earnings from the AI giants. The street shrugged off Samsung’s record quarterly profits. Great numbers are no longer enough. Investors want to know what comes next.

9 mistakes investors make

Most investing advice tells you what to buy. Barry Ritholtz would rather tell you what NOT to do. This week on Ticker Take, we sit down with Ritholtz, co-founder and chairman of Ritholtz Wealth Management and author of How NOT To Invest. Barry walks us through 9 mistakes investors (including the pros) keep making — from timing the market to anchoring to what you paid. Plus, the simple approach he uses to avoid them. Enjoy the full episode!

Paid members: your full written breakdown of all 9 mistakes is at the bottom of this week’s newsletter, in The Inside Take.

Welcome to Wall Street, SK Hynix!

There’s been lots of excitement around SK Hynix’s NASDAQ debut. The South Korean chipmaker has been a stock market star, but most have been unable to access that gain directly.

Why list in the US?

SK Hynix makes the memory chips Nvidia’s AI processors can’t run without, but until now most American investors couldn’t easily buy the stock because it only traded in Seoul. A NASDAQ listing opens the door to the world’s deepest pool of capital, more analyst coverage, and eventual inclusion in the big indexes passive funds have to buy. It also gives the company fresh cash to build new chip plants at home.

The significance: one of the purest plays on the AI memory boom is now within reach of everyday US investors. Wall Street is watching whether it can close the long-standing valuation gap with its American rival, Micron. One caution: hot stocks that have run this far can swing hard in both directions — as new US investors are already finding out.

Check out Caroline’s deep dive in this week’s AI Under The Hood on Ticker Take:

Nvidia: cheaper than Hershey?

Here’s a stat that stopped us. After a pullback from its May high, Nvidia now trades at about 18 times next year’s expected earnings — cheaper than the S&P 500 itself, and cheaper than about half the stocks in the index, including candy maker Hershey.

Still, analysts have been raising their profit estimates. The business is fine — Nvidia still owns 97% of the server GPU market. What’s changed is where the money is flowing: out of the most crowded AI trade and into other corners of the boom, like memory chips (hello, Micron — and SK Hynix). Wall Street hasn’t given up either: the average analyst target implies more than 50% upside.

So is the AI king suddenly a value stock, or a warning sign? That depends on which part of the AI trade you own — more on that for paid members below in this week’s Inside Take.

SpaceX: Wall Street’s all-in. The stock isn’t.

The banks that took SpaceX public just got permission to talk — and they had a lot to say. More than a dozen brokers, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, started coverage this week, nearly all with buy ratings. The average price target: $236, well above where the stock trades.

The boldest call belongs to Brian Gesuale at Raymond James: an $800 target. At that price, SpaceX would be worth $10.5 trillion — more than double Nvidia, the most valuable company in the world. His math is all about AI. SpaceX pulled in $19 billion in revenue last year; Gesuale thinks that reaches $5.2 trillion by 2035, almost all of it from selling computing power rather than launching rockets. He also admits the risk: a few failed launches and he sees the stock at $125, below its IPO price of $135.

All that said, while the Street was publishing its love letters, the stock was stumbling. It fell below the $150 level where the first post-IPO trades happened, on the same week it joined the Nasdaq 100. A reminder that analyst enthusiasm and market enthusiasm are two different things. In fact of the 3,000 biggest US stocks, 63% of all analyst ratings are buys. Only 4% are sells.

HALO trade heads to Europe

HALO stocks are having a moment. And now the trade is going global. The idea comes from investor Josh Brown: HALO stands for Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence — companies that own big physical stuff that won’t go out of date anytime soon.

Now Goldman Sachs is running with the theme in Europe. Its HALO basket includes chipmaker Infineon, jet engine maker Rolls-Royce and plane maker Airbus. That group is up 15% this year. Goldman’s basket of “capital-light” stocks — Adidas, British American Tobacco, Danone — is down 2%.

Goldman says investors are still underweight companies tied to infrastructure and industrial muscle. And the bank argues the next leg of the rally won’t come from stocks getting more expensive — it will come from earnings. These companies just need to deliver. Worth noting: European stocks have outpaced US stocks over the past month as money rotates away from chipmakers and into autos and consumer names.

Are the MANGOS getting soft?

Sticking with popular investing acronyms, a group of hot tech names has been losing momentum just as Wall Street moves in to capitalize on their appeal. The MANGOS — Meta, Anthropic, Nvidia, Google, OpenAI and SpaceX — are six companies at the centre of the AI boom. A growing number of funds have launched to trade the group, even though OpenAI and Anthropic aren’t public yet.

But Meta, Nvidia and Alphabet all slipped last month. SpaceX is still finding its footing, and OpenAI is reportedly leaning toward delaying its listing until next year. None of this means the MANGOS won’t be worth owning. But nickname fatigue may be setting in.

Dogs of the Dow deliver!

The Dogs of the Dow is a simple strategy: each January, buy the 10 highest dividend-yielding stocks in the Dow. The idea? These temporarily unloved blue-chips often deliver strong dividends plus price recovery. I recently made a video with our golden doodle (thank you, Lola) highlighting this year’s Dogs. You can check it out on Instagram.

As of early July, all but one (Nike) had posted gains this year — Home Depot, P&G, Verizon (which was recently replaced in the Dow by Alphabet), Chevron, Amgen, Coca-Cola, Merck, J&J and UnitedHealth — netting an average return of 10% (including Nike). Or perhaps I should say barked.

Ticker Take’s Star Biotech Picker Does It Again

Biotech isn’t a regular theme on Ticker Take. But when we do go there, we try to bring you the right guide. Last fall, that guide was veteran biotech investor Eden Rahim, who has spent decades in a sector most investors find too complicated to touch. We asked him a simple question: can you still make money in biotech? He didn’t just say yes. He gave us 10 names he had real conviction in, and told us why.

On Monday, one of them delivered in a big way. Vertex Pharmaceuticals agreed to buy Crinetics Pharmaceuticals for $10 billion in cash, the biggest deal in Vertex’s history, at a 102% premium. Crinetics shares doubled overnight.

Eden saw it coming. He called Crinetics an endocrine “discovery powerhouse” with a likely best-in-class drug and a deep pipeline behind it. He also loved the setup: a $3 billion company sitting on $1.2 billion in cash. Little funding risk, plenty of catalysts. A rare asymmetric bet, in his words.

And Crinetics isn’t the first name from his list to get taken out. In March, Biogen paid $5.6 billion for Apellis Pharmaceuticals, an 86% premium. In June, Simulations Plus agreed to go private in a $375 million deal. That’s three buyouts from one list of 10, inside a year!

Eden’s core argument was simple: big pharma would have to go shopping, because small biotechs were trading for less than their science was worth. The buyers keep proving him right. And the list’s winners aren’t limited to takeover targets. Cytokinetics is up nearly 150% over the past year as its heart drug launched in Europe, and TG Therapeutics keeps raising guidance on its MS treatment.

This is exactly why we do the show: access to investors who know their corner of the market cold, before the headlines catch up. Coming soon for Pro members: Eden’s framework for how he actually sizes biotech bets, from profitable names to pure-science moonshots. In the meantime, feel free to watch Eden’s prescient episode here:

Called It: Rogers Goes All In on Sports

A few weeks ago, I told you to watch for Rogers to move on the rest of its sports empire by early July. On Monday, it did. Rogers agreed to pay C$4.35 billion for the final 25% of MLSE it didn’t already own, taking full control of the Leafs and Raptors alongside the Blue Jays, Sportsnet and Rogers Centre.

It’s playing out almost exactly as I laid out here: buy out Larry Tanenbaum’s Kilmer Sports, combine everything into one big sports and media company, then sell a 20 to 30 percent slice to outside investors over the next year. Rogers still pegs the combined business at more than C$25 billion, and the cash would help pay down the debt from the Shaw deal. The real test is still to come: whether the market will finally pay full price for teams Rogers has long undervalued.

This week in The Inside Take

Every week in The Inside Take, we go deeper on how the pros approach the market. This week:

The full Ritholtz breakdown. All 9 mistakes, in writing, with Barry’s fix for each — for those who want the message without having to watch.

“Buy AI” Is Not a Strategy. Nvidia’s getting cheaper while Wall Street raises estimates. Money is rotating into memory chips. The MANGOS are wobbling. It’s a confusing time — unless you have a map. We took every AI pick from all episodes of Ticker Take and sorted them into the different layers of the AI trade. Once you see the map, this week’s headlines make a lot more sense.

[Become a paid member by clicking here!]

If you’re already a member, read on below!

If not, talk to you next week!

Connect with us everywhere!

Apple Podcasts: Apple Podcasts!

Spotify: Spotify!

Instagram: Instagram!

TikTok: TikTok!

X: X!

Website: Ticker Take!

Disclaimer: this content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or professional advice. Always consult a qualified professional regarding your individual situation.

Read more

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Inside Take is the paid half of this newsletter, and it is what keeps Ticker Take independent. Paid members get the deeper read on every story below, the analyst calls, the price targets, the why behind the headline. Become a paid member → to get the full picture each week.

What happens to stocks in July?

After a volatile June for tech, investors could be forgiven for bracing for more pain. But history points the other way. July has been the S&P 500’s strongest month over the past decade, averaging a 2.5% gain, and the index has finished higher in each of the last 11 July’s. The pattern tends to be even kinder in years when June was weak.

There’s a mechanical reason that may hold up again. According to Citadel Securities, the market is about to reset in a big way: the largest options expiration on record, quarter-end fund rebalancing, and then a fresh wave of money hitting stocks on July 1st as a new allocation cycle begins. Add record retail buying, ETF inflows running 45% ahead of last year’s record pace, and companies repurchasing their own shares at the fastest clip ever, and several of the market’s biggest buyers are re-engaging at once. As Citadel puts it, the path of least resistance looks higher heading into the second half.

Not every corner of the market shows up for July the same way, though. Inside our paid section, we break down which S&P 500 sectors have actually led over the past five Julys, including one quiet defensive group that has finished higher every single year.

A memorable quarter for chip stocks

Chip stocks just wrapped up one of their best stretches in years, riding the boom in spending on artificial intelligence. But the mood shifted fast. After months of going almost straight up, investors are increasingly asking: is the AI trade just catching its breath, or starting to run out of steam?

It matters for everyone, not just chip investors, because these stocks have been the engine pulling the whole market higher. Interestingly, the household names everyone associates with AI — Nvidia and Broadcom — have quietly fallen to the back of the pack this year. The new leaders are the less glamorous companies that make memory and storage, the parts that AI computers need by the truckload. In our paid section, we look at who’s been winning, who’s been left behind, and where Wall Street thinks the biggest chip names go from here.

8 quality stocks cheap right now?

The market is near all-time highs, but value investor Lorne Steinberg says there are still quality stocks trading cheap. Lorne joined us on Ticker Take with his test for finding low valuation, high quality stocks (the same approach Warren Buffett swears by). He walks us through 8 stocks on his buy list, including Buffett’s own company.

For paid subscribers, we’ve included a full written breakdown of all of Lorne’s picks, plus 6 more value stocks that currently receive a perfect score from Bloomberg’s strategy team.

The Real Winners in Korea’s Half-Trillion-Dollar Chip Push

South Korea just made one of the biggest industrial bets in its history. Samsung and SK Hynix are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into new chip plants, building four memory fabs to ensure they own the AI era. Memory is the bottleneck in AI right now, with demand blowing past supply, and South Korea wants to lock up the lead before anyone else can.

Worth noting: a buildout of this size runs on equipment, and that money flows straight to the toolmakers. ASML (ASML) is the crown jewel, since nobody makes an advanced chip without its machines. Lam Research (LRCX) and Tokyo Electron (TOELY) sell the etch and deposition gear that memory production lives on. Applied Materials (AMAT) supplies the tools that actually build the chips, and KLA (KLAC) makes sure they come out flawless. Four new fabs is years of orders for all of them.

And keep one eye on Micron (MU). It initially slipped on fears all this Korean capacity floods the market, but that take is lazy. Micron is the only American HBM maker, its entire 2026 output is already sold out, and the stock is up huge this year riding the same AI wave. New fabs take years to switch on, so the supply worry is a 2028 problem, not a today one. When the only U.S. name in the room sells off on someone else’s spending spree, that’s worth a second look.

Space deal: Rocket Lab buys Iridium

Rocket Lab agreed to buy satellite operator Iridium in a cash-and-stock deal worth about $8 billion, or $54 a share. The deal turns Rocket Lab from a company that mostly builds and launches rockets into one that will own and run its own satellite fleet. It also hands Rocket Lab valuable spectrum rights and Iridium’s network of 66 low-orbit satellites, which connect phones and devices anywhere on the planet. SpaceX and its Starlink network have pulled way ahead, and smaller players are scrambling to catch up. That is driving a wave of deals across the sector. Amazon agreed to buy Globalstar in April. SES bought Intelsat last year. SpaceX picked up spectrum from EchoStar. The Rocket Lab-Iridium tie-up is the latest sign that the space race is now also a buyout race, and that scale and spectrum are the assets investors are paying up for. If you have been following our space coverage on Ticker Take, including our deep dive on the SpaceX IPO, this is the same story playing out: the leader sets the pace, and everyone else has to scale up fast or get left behind.

Are Stablecoins Still a Threat to Visa?

Not long ago, the worry for investors was that stablecoins might let payments skip around Visa and Mastercard and eat into the fees they earn. Stablecoins are digital dollars that move instantly, around the clock, anywhere in the world, which makes them handy for sending money across borders or holding savings in U.S. dollars in countries where that’s hard. That fear keeps fading, though. Earlier this week, more than 100 companies including Visa, Stripe, BlackRock and Mastercard got behind a new digital dollar called Open USD. Instead of being pushed aside, the card networks are building themselves into this new system. It fits what Visa has been saying for months: the most popular real-world use of stablecoins so far is simply a Visa card linked to one.

The more interesting question is what it does to profits. Visa and Mastercard still make money the same way — fees for moving payments and for the security and services wrapped around them — and now collect them whether you pay with a card or a stablecoin. The catch: moving stablecoins may earn less than a regular card swipe, which carries richer fees. So the real debate isn’t whether stablecoins replace the networks once feared — it’s whether the networks keep getting paid as well as they do today, no matter how the money moves. Both stocks have been routine recommendations from guests on Ticker Take.

Thanks for reading! Sign up to be a paid member to find out what amazing Ticker Take guest is booked next week, along with lots of investing insights!

Connect with us everywhere!

Apple Podcasts: Apple Podcasts!

Spotify: Spotify!

Instagram: Instagram!

TikTok: TikTok!

X: X!

Website: Ticker Take!

Disclaimer: this content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or professional advice. Always consult a qualified professional regarding your individual situation.

Read more

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Inside Take is the paid half of this newsletter, and it is what keeps Ticker Take independent. Paid members get the deeper read on every story below, the analyst calls, the price targets, the why behind the headline. Become a paid member → to get the full picture each week.

A Recap on the Week

Remember last week, when we flagged that investors had crowded into chip stocks like never before? This week they got nervous about it. AI bubble worries took over and the Nasdaq went on a slide. The fear underneath it all is pretty simple. The AI buildout is wildly expensive, and people are starting to ask who is paying for it and when it pays off. It did not help that SK Hynix, one of the big Korean memory makers feeding the AI boom, signaled it was easing up on AI chip production. Then Cerebras, a startup that builds specialized chips for AI and wants to take on Nvidia, warned it expects to keep losing money. That added to the gloom.

Gloom, though is different than doom. Micron, a memory chip giant, posted blockbuster numbers this week that suggested the AI boom still has plenty of room to run. More on that below. JPMorgan went further. Even with all the bubble talk, the bank raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7,800, betting the market grinds higher from here. We get into the reasoning behind that call in our paid section below, The Inside Take.

Meanwhile, the red-hot demand that makes Micron’s numbers shine is showing up in places that will frustrate consumers. Apple just raised prices on Macs and iPads because the memory inside them got so pricey. That feeds inflation right when the Fed is already worried about it. The Fed’s favorite price gauge climbed to 4.1% in May, well above its 2% goal, which keeps new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh leaning toward higher rates, not lower. So the market is stuck between two truths. AI is still the growth story everyone wants to own. But AI is getting expensive enough to make people flinch. Expect the push and pull to continue.

Micron to the Rescue

Despite the AI jitters this week, I mentioned memory chip giant Micron gave the bulls something to hold onto. Memory is the unglamorous part of the AI story — the chips that store all the data that systems chew through. Bloomberg Intelligence pointed out that Micron also secured 16 strategic customer agreements, which could help the company avoid the boom and bust cycles memory players have battled for years.

What does all of this mean for a stock that has already risen more than 800% in the past year? We have the latest analyst price targets for the shares in our paid section, The Inside Take.

The Oil Scare Fizzles

Lost in all the tech noise: oil drifted back toward where it sat before the Iran war kicked off, after signs that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is improving. If you have been wincing at the gas pump these past few months, this may be the relief you were waiting for. Worth noting, though: the price spike has to work its way through the system, which is part of why inflation ran hot in May. So the pain at the pump is easing, but the bill from the spike is still landing.

Inside Amazon’s Secret Plan to Beat Nvidia

We did something we’ve never done! We went inside Amazon. Specifically, the Austin lab where the company designs the AI chips now powering Anthropic, OpenAI, and Apple, and quietly turning Amazon into a real rival to Nvidia. It is a side of Amazon almost nobody gets to see. Hope you enjoy!

Why Wall Street Can’t Quit Amazon

After the lab tour, we zoomed out to the stock. Amazon might be the most loved name on Wall Street. More than 80 analysts cover it, about 95% say buy, and not one says sell. We break down why that conviction has barely moved in years, and the risks worth watching. Again, hope you enjoy!

There is more insight on Amazon’s stock in our paid section below, The Inside Take, where we also preview our Ticker Take guest next Thursday and one of his picks ahead of that episode’s release. Sign up!

Alphabet Crashes the Dow

Big news for one of the most famous names in tech. Alphabet, the company behind Google, is joining the Dow Jones Industrial Average next week, replacing Verizon. The Dow is finally catching up to a market that Big Tech has run for years. With Alphabet in, five of the Magnificent Seven now sit in the index.

Getting added to the Dow does not usually do much for the stock. The Dow is price-weighted, an old-fashioned setup where a stock’s share price, not the size of the company, sets how much it counts. Hardly any funds bother to track it, so there is no wave of forced buying the way there is when a company joins the S&P 500. When Nvidia and Amazon joined back in 2024, both barely moved on the day, and Nvidia actually fell over the following months before recovering. So this is more a symbolic nod than a catalyst.

Meanwhile, the index is welcoming Alphabet in just as the market has been second-guessing it. Alphabet has had a rough few weeks, with investors questioning if it is keeping its edge in AI.

Dividends That Make You Dance

We also dug into dividends this week. If you missed it, we ran the numbers on stocks set for big dividend growth over the next three years. Using Bloomberg projections, we looked for companies expected to grow their dividend by at least 10%, with a dividend yield of at least 0.5%, a healthy dividend rating, and a buy recommendation from most Wall Street analysts who cover them.

The list runs 22 names deep, led by Nvidia with projected dividend growth of 73%. Interestingly, people think of Nvidia as a pure growth story, not a dividend payer. After that, the list spreads across the economy, from cruise lines like Carnival and Royal Caribbean, to healthcare names like Eli Lilly and Danaher, to payment giants like Visa and Mastercard.

Dividend growth is not the same as a big yield today. It is a signal that a company is confident enough in its future cash to commit to paying shareholders more down the road.

Does this also mean these stocks are headed higher? We looked at the 12-month analyst forecasts for every name on this list expected to grow its dividend by at least 15%. You can find the results in our paid section below, The Inside Take.

Top Heavy

To our non-paid subscribers, we’ll leave you with some data (our favorite thing).In 1996, the nine biggest companies in the S&P 500 made up about 9% of the entire index. Back then, the giants were old-economy household names like General Electric, Coca-Cola, and Exxon. Today, the nine biggest make up 40%, and almost all of them are tech and AI names. The market has rarely leaned on so few companies. It is fair to wonder if that is too much weight resting on too few shoulders. But just because a stock is already enormous does not mean it cannot keep climbing. In fact, we checked what Wall Street analysts think each of these nine giants will do over the next year, and the you’ll find the answer below, in The Inside Take.

Connect with us everywhere!

Apple Podcasts: Apple Podcasts!

Spotify: Spotify!

Instagram: Instagram!

TikTok: TikTok!

X: X!

Website: Ticker Take!

Disclaimer: this content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or professional advice. Always consult a qualified professional regarding your individual situation.

Read more

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices