<![CDATA[Schachter’s Eye on Energy]]>https://josefschachter.substack.comhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!x8V1!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F21cb1122-2339-415d-96b9-b162cb2db891_256x256.pngSchachter’s Eye on Energyhttps://josefschachter.substack.comSubstackFri, 04 Sep 2026 10:28:26 GMT<![CDATA[WTI Breaches US$90/b As Iran's IRGC Throw A Tantrum And Make New Attacks Due To US Success In Moving Crude Via The Oman Protected Route.]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/wti-breaches-us90b-as-irans-irgchttps://josefschachter.substack.com/p/wti-breaches-us90b-as-irans-irgcWed, 02 Sep 2026 20:16:58 GMTIran is getting frustrated with the new sanctions implemented by US Treasury Secretary Bessent and has lashed out at US military bases on the western Persian Gulf and at crude tankers owned by Saudi Arabia. There was some damage and two people have reported being killed. However, at the same time US naval convoys have moved up to 17 Mb/d on some days according to US Energy Secretary Wright. Much of this oil is moving without transponders to have safer passage. This almost reaches the level of 20 Mb/d seen before the war started. WTI Crude reached US$92.29/b this morning but has retreated to US$89.13/b as more details are being released about the major energy deal between the US and Venezuela (more on this below). As more crude reaches the market from the Middle East through the Strait (with US naval escort) and more comes out of the Suez area a near term supply/demand balance has been achieved. The wild card is winter demand and the impact El Nino may have on consumption. Normally winter demand is 1.0 - 1.5 Mb/d higher than during the Fall so we will need to see inventories sufficiently high enough in commercial stocks globally to meet winter demand.

President Trump is now primarily focused on the mid-term elections on Tuesday November 3rd. He is on the stump to help get GOP Senate and House candidates elected. He is focusing more on the Senate as he fights to keep this in Republican hands. If he loses the House as is expected by political forecasters then it could get very nasty as Democrats move to start impeachment hearings once again. If Republicans keep the Senate then such a maneuver will not succeed as the Senate holds the trial. Issues on the campaign trail are: Affordability with the key issue being gasoline prices, higher mortgage rates, housing prices and access, the NIMBY issue of data centres, and the majority of Americans dissatisfied by the war against Iran. Watch interest rates (US 10-year yields are now at the year high of 4.79% up from the low in March of 3.92%), the success of future US Treasury funding issues, any escalation or descalation in the Iran conflict and how the polls see the outcome of the November mid-terms. We see bad news on any of these fronts delivering ‘uncertainty’ that markets hate. Be prepared for a 10-15% stock market correction if the news is not received well by the US population.

Our next SER issue out September 11th will cover the last 11 companies and their Q2/26 (of the 35 companies that we provide research on). Canadian energy stocks are cheap but in the near term could get cheaper as we are quite overbought now. We expect to see a new low risk BUY signal occurring during Q4/26. This is a delay from our previous forecast. Our last low risk BUY signal was in April 2025. We will send out an SER Action Alert to SER subscribers when the BUY signals are triggered. We plan to add new energy ideas to consider and highlight the plethora of bargains that are available. If interested in our BUY recommendations, please become an SER subscriber.

Catch the Energy Conference:

Registration is Now Open - Join Industry Leaders at the Catch the Energy Conference!

Tickets are now on sale for the public. Become a subscriber and get two free tickets to the conference. Use coupon code CTE26 at checkout to receive $100 off the first year of an annual subscription, along with the two complimentary conference tickets. Public tickets are available at the early bird price of $119 each until September 18th, after which they will increase to $179 each. To find out more go to www.catchtheenergyconference.com.

As usual SER subscribers will receive two complimentary tickets to the event. We look forward to seeing you there! Take your tickets down ASAP as we expect to have a full attendance and we don’t want our subscribers to miss out.

Get a taste of the Catch the Energy Conference! Watch our sizzle reel from last year and see why this is one of the best opportunities for individual investors to connect directly with the leaders of Canada’s energy sector. Join us October 17, 2026, and be part of it this year!

We are nearly complete signing up our Presenters for this year’s conference. Below are those already signed up with confirmation forms sent in. We have met with other companies and will update this list as their confirmations come in. We have room for 45 companies. A ‘Wait List’ has been set up as we usually get a few takeovers each year providing presentation slots to those on that list. Please put the event in your calendar for October 17, 2026 if you can come to Calgary. This year’s event will be our biggest and best yet and the program will have some new and exciting features. If you are an institutional investor and plan to attend please let us know as we may be able to provide access to management teams on Friday, October 16th at the Calgary Petroleum Club.

Thank you to our Sponsors, Exhibitors and Presenters. It is going to be a great lineup and largest attendance this year!

Read more

]]><![CDATA[WTI Down >US$4/b From Last Week To US$81.12/b As Markets Become Immune To War Of Words Between The US and Iran. ]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/wti-down-us4b-from-last-week-to-us8112bhttps://josefschachter.substack.com/p/wti-down-us4b-from-last-week-to-us8112bWed, 26 Aug 2026 19:38:24 GMTAs if President Trump did not have enough on his plate with the difficulties in the Persian Gulf and the US ‘Affordability’ crisis just ahead of the November midterm elections; at the last minute he decided to pick a fight with Canada and an escalated trade war is now the result. Canada gave a deadline of September 8th before it introduces countervailing tariffs similar in scope to US tariffs being applied to Canada. Both countries have very interconnected supply chains and products being produced will just see a larger tax on consumers. Will the US come to the table by September 8th with an acceptable resolution to both countries? Canada has some of its biggest tariff potentials off the table. Those include electric power to the US northeast states, potash and fertilizer and most importantly energy. Oil and natural gas exports tariffs would be very harmful to the Midwest and the Gulf Coast. I’m not sure if there will be a deal by September 8th but I think that once we get past the November elections and the Republican Party loses at a minimum the House and maybe both the House and the Senate, then President Trump’s worries will move to the domestic side. He will have to find solutions on the trade issues not only with Canada, but the world, and find a way out of the Iran crisis with some powers being given to Iran and Oman in managing passages (and getting some compensation) through the Strait of Hormuz. All the key issues are now problematic and this uncertainty is not what financial markets (bonds and equities) want to see. Expect more volatility going forward and if we are right then large daily moves up and more likely for equities - down and for bond yields to be higher. This can make investors become risk off versus the now risk on mentality.

Pakistan is again trying to get peace talks moving towards a resolution of the crisis in the Persian Gulf. They continue to talk to the moderates in Iran but until the IRGC and the mullahs agree to a resolution of the crisis, this talk is just talk. President Trump has threatened catastrophe or an “Economic D-DAY” against Iran but with the US mid-term elections just weeks away it is unlikely to change the Persian Gulf situation. Activity will be more related to economic pressure. With China being the key backer of Iran and the US hesitant to take on Iran due to their control of key critical minerals, we do not see the US escalating the economic pressure. Iran has faced economic pressure for many decades and any new sanctions may just be annoying but will not change their policies. Their economy is in shambles and their currency at record lows but the regime doesn’t care as they focus on retaining power.

Our next SER issue is out tomorrow August 27th, and will cover the Q2/26 results of 16 companies (of the 35 companies that we provide research on). It is also the night we have our Q3/26 quarterly webinar. This webinar will start with the latest on the macroeconomic front impacting crude oil, some new stock screens to help subscribers determine ideas that may fit their portfolio needs, and then we will have our first Q&A. Thereafter, we will show our top picks for each of our Conservative, Growth and Entrepreneurial sections; one each by Nathan our VP Energy Research and by myself. To conclude, we will have the second Q&A focused on companies that subscribers want information on. For subscribers, this will give additional insight into ideas they might like to own during this lengthy energy super cycle. Please send your questions to info@schacherenergyresearch.com.

Canadian energy stocks are cheap but in the near term could get cheaper as we are quite overbought now. We expect to see a new low risk BUY signal occurring during Q4/26. This is a delay from our previous forecast. Our last low risk BUY signal was in April 2025. We will send out an SER Action Alert to SER subscribers when the BUY signals are triggered. We plan to add new energy ideas to consider and highlight the plethora of bargains that are available. If interested in our BUY recommendations, please become an SER subscriber.

Catch the Energy Conference:

Registration is Now Open - Join Industry Leaders at the Catch the Energy Conference!

Tickets are now on sale for the public. Become a subscriber and get two free tickets to the conference. Use coupon code CTE26 at checkout to receive $100 off the first year of an annual subscription, along with the two complimentary conference tickets. Public tickets are available at the early bird price of $119 each until September 18th, after which they will increase to $179 each. To find out more go to www.catchtheenergyconference.com.

As usual SER subscribers will receive two complimentary tickets to the event. We look forward to seeing you there! Take your tickets down ASAP as we expect to have a full attendance and we don’t want our subscribers to miss out.

We are nearly complete signing up our Presenters for this year’s conference. Below are those already signed up with confirmation forms sent in. We have met with other companies and will update this list as their confirmations come in. We have room for 45 companies. A ‘Wait List’ has been set up as we usually get a few takeovers each year providing presentation slots to those on that list. Please put the event in your calendar for October 17, 2026 if you can come to Calgary. This year’s event will be our biggest and best yet and the program will have some new and exciting features. If you are an institutional investor and plan to attend please let us know as we may be able to provide access to management teams on Friday, October 16th at the Calgary Petroleum Club.

Thank you to our Sponsors, Exhibitors and Presenters. It is going to be a great lineup and largest attendance this year!

Read more

]]><![CDATA[President Trump Threatens Oman Over Its Potential Deal With Iran to Control the Straits of Hormuz. Is This His Typical Banter or Are We Going to See an Escalation in the War?]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/president-trump-threatens-oman-overhttps://josefschachter.substack.com/p/president-trump-threatens-oman-overWed, 19 Aug 2026 19:58:11 GMTPresident Trump is facing a dilemma over ignoring Iran and the Strait of Hormuz over the coming weeks into the November 3rd Congressional election or increasing the pressure on Iran and expanding the war. In recent weeks, the US Secretary Treasury has made comments about tightening sanctions against Iran via sanctions against parties trading with Iran (the companies, their banks, etc. of China and India particularly). We don’t think this is likely, and again it’s just the normal rhetoric that you see which doesn’t turn into facts on the ground. Bottom Line: President Trump plans to let the economic pain in Iran continue for the foreseeable future.

President Trump needs to start spending a lot of time on the stomping grounds to help Republicans get elected to the House and the Senate if he wants to stay in control of both houses after the start of 2027. Right now it looks like the Republicans will lose the House and it is a very tight situation for the Senate. President Trump does not want to be a lame duck for his final two years of his presidency and so this will start getting his undivided attention. In this case, crude oil should trade in a range of US$70 to $95/b until after the US election. As we get closer to the winter of 2026 - 2027, and if inventories especially for distillates diesel tighten, then the WTI crude price movement will go higher than the US$95/b number. It would be nice to conceive of a scenario where the price of WTI falls below US$70/b, but until after the US elections we don’t see enough facts on the ground to provide such a positive solution. The upcoming battle pits the Republican MAGA movement, which has benefitted from tax cuts and a strong AI economy, against lower income individuals who don’t see the American economic system working for them, shifting their attitudes more towards the democratic socialist agenda. In the end, whoever wins will be the one who persuades the most number of independent voters to support them.

Our next SER issue is out August 27th, and will cover the Q2/26 results of 16+ companies (of the 35 companies that we provide research on). It is also the night we have our Q3/26 quarterly webinar. This webinar will start with the latest on the macroeconomic front impacting crude oil, some new stock screens to help subscribers determine ideas that may fit their portfolio needs, and then we will have our first Q&A. Thereafter, we will show our top picks for each of our Conservative, Growth and Entrepreneurial sections; one each by Nathan our VP Energy Research and by myself. To conclude, we will have the second Q&A focused on companies that subscribers want information on. For subscribers, this will give additional insight into ideas they might like to own during this lengthy energy super cycle. Please send your questions to info@schacherenergyresearch.com.

Canadian energy stocks are cheap and we expect to see a new low risk BUY signal occurring during Q4/26. This is a delay from our previous forecast due to the US Government’s new policy in dealing with Iran. Our last low risk BUY signal was in April 2025. We will send out an SER Action Alert to SER subscribers when the BUY signals are triggered. We plan to add new energy ideas to consider and highlight the plethora of bargains that are available. If interested in our BUY recommendations, please become an SER subscriber.

Catch the Energy Conference:

Registration is Now Open - Join Industry Leaders at the Catch the Energy Conference!

Tickets are now on sale for the public. Become a subscriber and get two free tickets to the conference. Use coupon code CTE26 at checkout to receive $100 off the first year of an annual subscription, along with the two complimentary conference tickets. Public tickets are currently available at the early bird price of $119 each until September 18th, after which they will increase to $179 each.

To find out more go to www.catchtheenergyconference.com. We did sell out last year so if you would like to attend, please get your tickets as soon as possible.

As usual SER subscribers will receive two complimentary tickets to the event. We look forward to seeing you there!

We are nearly complete signing up our Presenters for this year’s conference. Below are those already signed up with confirmation forms sent in. We have met with other companies and will update this list as their confirmations come in. We have room for 45 companies. A ‘Wait List’ has been set up as we usually get a few takeovers each year providing presentation slots to those on that list. Please put the event in your calendar for October 17, 2026 if you can come to Calgary. This year’s event will be our biggest and best yet and the program will have some new and exciting features. If you are an institutional investor and plan to attend please let us know as we may be able to provide access to management teams on Friday, October 16th at the Calgary Petroleum Club.

Thank you to our Sponsors, Exhibitors and Presenters. It is going to be a great lineup and largest attendance this year!

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Interview on Howe Street]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/interview-on-howe-street-3adhttps://josefschachter.substack.com/p/interview-on-howe-street-3adMon, 17 Aug 2026 19:42:07 GMTPlease listen to my interview on Howe Street below:

Schachter’s Eye on Energy is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

]]><![CDATA[The Longer The Persian Gulf & The Red Sea Stay Closed, Iran's Negotiating Position Gets Stronger ]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/the-longer-the-persian-gulf-and-thehttps://josefschachter.substack.com/p/the-longer-the-persian-gulf-and-theWed, 12 Aug 2026 20:08:15 GMTLast week’s comments from the US Treasury Secretary of an imminent deal that the US would support has not occurred. Iran and its proxies continue to hit ships in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, and keep adding to their list of demands before reopening the two Straits. Most forecasters expect Iran to end up controlling the two Straits and getting revenues for both itself and the Houthis. The power Iran has gained has been at the expense of the US which showed these belligerents that they had power that they had not foreseen before the war started. The US posture is aggressive in their cajoling and economic pressure but the US does not understand how to deal with Iran’s more increasingly hawkish IRGC leadership. President Trump may want to just tweet and rant until the US mid-term elections are over. His focus is to keep at least one of the House or the Senate which will be a big job as mid-terms have historically gone against the incumbent and ‘affordability’ is the key battleground issue.

Iran needs inducements to sign off on opening the Strait that generates financial compensation (return of frozen funds and longer term significant fees from Hormuz passage), the end of the blockade, and significant sanctions relief. Bottom line: the US (President Trump) wants to withdraw from being the policeman in the Middle East and wants the locals and beneficiaries of crude from the area to take over the responsibility. This is a massive change in US foreign policy. In the meantime Saudi Arabia is making defensive deals with Pakistan and Turkey to protect themselves from a now dominant regional power: Iran.

Our 2026 forecast has been for an average price of US$80/b for WTI, rising in 2027 as demand growth picks up and SPRs are rebuilt to average US$90/b. We were close to getting new BUY signals triggered in early July, but recent events means patience is required for a bit longer. Prices for Q2/26 were US$92.99/b for WTI (US$63.68/b in Q2/25) and AECO prices were C$1.51/mcf in 2026 ($1.66/mcf in Q2/25). Thus, we expect our liquids producers that we cover to have strong results while natural gas producers should see flattish results compared to last year. Our next SER issue is out tomorrow August 13th, and will start our coverage of eight companies results for Q2/26 (for the 35 companies that we provide research on). Canadian energy stocks are cheap and we expect to see a new low risk BUY signal occurring in the coming weeks, or at the latest early Q4/26. Our last low risk BUY signal was in April 2025.

We will send out an SER Action Alert to SER subscribers when the BUY signals are triggered. We plan to add new energy ideas to consider and highlight the plethora of bargains that are available. If interested in our BUY recommendations, please become an SER subscriber.

Catch the Energy Conference:

Registration is Now Open - Join Industry Leaders at the Catch the Energy Conference!

Tickets are now on sale for the public. Become a subscriber and get two free tickets to the conference. Use coupon code CTE26 at checkout to receive $100 off the first year of an annual subscription, along with the two complimentary conference tickets. Public tickets are currently available at the early bird price of $119 each until September 18th, after which they will increase to $179 each.

To find out more go to www.catchtheenergyconference.com. We did sell out last year so if you would like to attend, please get your tickets as soon as possible.

As usual SER subscribers will receive two complimentary tickets to the event. We look forward to seeing you there!

We are working away on getting our Presenters for this year’s conference. Below are those already signed up with confirmation forms in. We have met with other companies and will update this list as their confirmations come in. We have room for 45 companies. A ‘Wait List’ has been set up as we usually get a few takeovers each year providing presentation slots to those on that list. Please put the event in your calendar for October 17, 2026 if you can come to Calgary. This year’s event will be our biggest and best yet and the program will have some new and exciting features. If you are an institutional investor and plan to attend please let us know as we may be able to provide access to management teams on Friday, October 16th at the Calgary Petroleum Club.

Thank you to our Sponsors, Exhibitors and Presenters. It is going to be a great lineup and largest attendance this year!

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Interview on the Jay Young Show]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/interview-on-the-jay-young-showhttps://josefschachter.substack.com/p/interview-on-the-jay-young-showFri, 07 Aug 2026 16:13:30 GMTIn this interview we have a wide-ranging discussion about oil prices, natural gas, geopolitical risk and the long-term investment outlook for conventional energy.

I explain why North America remains well supplied while global oil and refined-product markets face increasing pressure. I also break down the potential impact of continued conflict involving Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, China, Russia and the Middle East.

Tickets are now on sale to attend the Catch the Energy Conference.

Get your Early Bird Tickets Now! ($119 CDN plus tax)

Join leading investors, analysts, and energy executives for in-depth insights and unparalleled networking.
October 17, 2026 Calgary, AB

Secure your spot before rates increase.

Below is our current lineup of sponsors and presenters. We are very close to having our full presenter lineup. Just a few spots left!

]]><![CDATA[If Deal Occurs To Reopen The Strait Of Hormuz, What Concessions Will Iran Receive?]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/if-deal-occurs-to-reopen-the-straithttps://josefschachter.substack.com/p/if-deal-occurs-to-reopen-the-straitWed, 05 Aug 2026 21:02:24 GMTDiscussions are ongoing on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and US Treasury Secretary Bessent sees a deal being imminent. Will there be some control by Iran and Oman? Will there be free passage for 60 days and then a fee (safety, environmental or tariff by value of cargo)? How quickly will the mines be removed? Will there be a ‘route in’ controlled by Iran and a ‘route out’ controlled by Oman? Is the US giving up on free passage for some agreement on nuclear energy that meets their original goal? So much is unanswered and just saying we have a deal leaves a lot of issues to be resolved during the negotiations. Iran needs inducements to sign off on opening the Strait so some financial compensation (return of frozen funds and longer term fees from Hormuz passage), the end of the blockade, and some sanctions relief. Bottom line: the US (President Trump) wants to withdraw from being the policeman in the Middle East and wants the locals and beneficiaries of crude from the area to take over the responsibility. This is a massive change in US foreign policy.

With optimism that a deal to reopen the Straits is imminent, WTI crude prices have retreated to US$74.80/b from US$93.50/b just two weeks ago. Near term, if real discussions occur and both sides are saying the same thing, then WTI should decline below US$70/b and reach our bottom target of US$65-US$68/b. We remain optimistic about talks resuming but are pessimistic about a successful and durable outcome. With crude oil prices declining, the S&P Energy Bullish Percent Index has fallen from 67% over a week ago to 48% today. Once we get below 10%, we get our next BUY signal for the sector.

Our 2026 forecast has been for an average price of US$80/b for WTI, rising in 2027 as demand growth picks up and SPRs are rebuilt to average US$90/b. We were close to getting new BUY signals triggered in early July, but recent events means patience is required for a bit longer. Prices for Q2/26 are US$92.99/b for WTI (US$63.68/b in Q2/25) and AECO prices of C$1.51/mcf in 2026 ($1.66/mcf in Q2/25). Thus, we expect our liquids producers that we cover to have strong results while natural gas producers should see flattish results compared to last year. Our next SER issue out on August 13th will start our coverage of results for Q2/26 for the 35 companies that we provide research on. Canadian energy stocks are cheap and we expect to see a new low risk BUY signal occurring in the coming weeks, or at the latest early Q4/26. Our last low risk BUY signal was in April 2025.

We will send out an SER Action Alert to SER subscribers when the BUY signals are triggered. We plan to add new energy ideas to consider and highlight the plethora of bargains that are available. If interested in our BUY recommendations, please become an SER subscriber.

Catch the Energy Conference:

Registration is Now Open - Join Industry Leaders at the Catch the Energy Conference!

Tickets are now on sale for the public. Become a subscriber and get two free tickets to the conference. Use coupon code CTE26 at checkout to receive $100 off the first year of an annual subscription, along with the two complimentary conference tickets. Public tickets are currently available at the early bird price of $119 each until September 18th, after which they will increase to $179 each.

To find out more go to www.catchtheenergyconference.com. We did sell out last year so if you would like to attend, please get your tickets as soon as possible.

As usual SER subscribers will receive two complimentary tickets to the event. We look forward to seeing you there!

We are working away on getting our Presenters for this year’s conference. Below are those already signed up with confirmation forms in. We have met with other companies and will update this list as their confirmations come in. We have room for 45 companies. A ‘Wait List’ has been set up as we usually get a few takeovers each year providing presentation slots to those on that list. Please put the event in your calendar for October 17, 2026 if you can come to Calgary. This year’s event will be our biggest and best yet and the program will have some new and exciting features. If you are an institutional investor and plan to attend please let us know as we may be able to provide access to management teams on Friday, October 16th at the Calgary Petroleum Club.

Thank you to our Sponsors, Exhibitors and Presenters. It is going to be a great lineup and largest attendance this year!

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Interview on Palisades Gold Radio]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/interview-on-palisades-gold-radio-6c4https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/interview-on-palisades-gold-radio-6c4Fri, 31 Jul 2026 15:48:33 GMTIn this discussion I clarify that the current energy market tightness is not a crude oil shortage but a severe refining capacity problem, particularly impacting Asia. While US production has surged to 24 million barrels daily, allowing for exports, a lack of refined products in Asia has driven local prices to the equivalent of over $150 per barrel. I attribute the volatility to geopolitical tensions, noting that oil prices swung from the high $90s to $67 before rebounding into the mid-$80s on renewed conflict fears.

Tickets are now on sale to attend the Catch the Energy Conference.


Get your Early Bird Tickets Now! ($119 CDN plus tax)

Join leading investors, analysts, and energy executives for in-depth insights and unparalleled networking.
October 17, 2026 Calgary, AB

Secure your spot before rates increase.

Below is our current lineup of sponsors and presenters. We are very close to having our full presenter lineup. Just a few spots left!

]]><![CDATA[Webinar Recording with Energy Prospectus Group]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/webinar-recording-with-energy-prospectushttps://josefschachter.substack.com/p/webinar-recording-with-energy-prospectusThu, 30 Jul 2026 18:23:24 GMTThis is a replay of a webinar I did with Energy Prospectus Group.

Schachter’s Eye on Energy is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

]]><![CDATA[Iran's IRGC Torpedoes Peace Negotiations With Attacks On Saudi Arabia And Jordan. WTI Up >US$5/b. ]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/irans-irgc-torpedoes-peace-negotiationshttps://josefschachter.substack.com/p/irans-irgc-torpedoes-peace-negotiationsWed, 29 Jul 2026 20:34:35 GMTAfter a few days of calm and no attacks from either side, negotiations triggered by China kept the peace. However, Iran’s IRGC took matters into their own hands and had their proxies in Iraq and Yemen attack Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The Iraqi proxy hit a US command & control base in Jordan but was destroyed by air defenses. Yemen and Iraqi proxies hit Saudi energy facilities and tankers. In return, Saudi forces hit back at these attackers. We await the US response. President Trump ire was raised and he has talked about a massive retaliation. Maybe this occurs or maybe his military temper his obliteration desires. One problem for the US is that they are running out of some offensive weaponry and as well defensive missiles to knock down incoming ballistic missiles. Iran seems to want to extend the war so that they are in a better bargaining position when negotiations recommence. Having the ability to control both straits gives them and their allies stronger bargaining posture. Their main desire is control with some payment schedule. The US and its western Gulf partners are opposed to any control and payment deal. Interestingly, China is getting shipments through both straits via payments to Iran and the Houthis.

On Tuesday, prices fell >US$3/b on hope that China’s impetus for talks lowered crude prices but today they are up >US$5/b to US$84.56/b after the new attacks. If the US does a proportional response in its attack, then the upside for WTI would be US$94/b. If it is a major escalation then prices would have the potential to exceed the high of US$119.48/b seen in early March as the war restarted. On the optimistic side, if negotiations resume then prices could head back to the US$70/b level. Those that want to bet on which outcome have offerings in the prediction markets. We hope for the Chinese to persist and get the Iranians back to the table, and for the US to hold back retaliation to proportionality.

Our forecast has been for an average price in 2026 of US$80/b for WTI, rising in 2027 as demand growth picks up and SPR’s are rebuilt to average US$90/b. If the fighting continues, then our forecast for 2026 is too low. We were close to getting new BUY signals triggered in early July, but this latest twist means patience is required for a bit longer. Prices for Q2/26 on an initial basis are US$92.99/b for WTI (US$63.68/b in Q2/25) and AECO prices of C$1.51/mcf in 2026 ($1.66/mcf in Q2/25). Thus we expect our liquids producers that we cover to have strong results while natural gas producers should see flattish results compared to last year. Our next SER issue out on August 13th will start our coverage of results for Q2/26 for the 35 companies that we provide research on. Canadian energy stocks are cheap and we expect to see a new low risk BUY signal occurring in the coming weeks or maybe early Q4/26. Our last low risk BUY signal was in April 2025.

We will send out an SER Action Alert to SER subscribers when the BUY signals are triggered. We plan to add new energy ideas to consider and highlight the plethora of bargains that are available. If interested in our BUY recommendations, please become an SER subscriber.

Catch the Energy Conference:

Registration is Now Open - Join Industry Leaders at the Catch the Energy Conference!

Tickets are now on sale for the public. Become a subscriber and get two free tickets to the conference. Use coupon code CTE26 at checkout to receive $100 off the first year of an annual subscription, along with the two complimentary conference tickets. Public tickets are currently available at the early bird price of $119 each until September 18th, after which they will increase to $179 each.

To find out more go to www.catchtheenergyconference.com. We did sell out last year so if you would like to attend, please get your tickets as soon as possible.

As usual SER subscribers will receive two complimentary tickets to the event. We look forward to seeing you there!

We are working away on getting our Presenters for this year’s conference. Below are those already signed up with confirmation forms in. We have met with other companies and will update this list as their confirmations come in. We have room for 45 companies. A ‘Wait List’ has been set up as we usually get a few takeovers each year providing presentation slots to those on that list. Please put the event in your calendar for October 17, 2026 if you can come to Calgary. This year’s event will be our biggest and best yet and the program will have some new and exciting features. If you are an institutional investor and plan to attend please let us know as we may be able to provide access to management teams on Friday, October 16th at the Calgary Petroleum Club.

Thank you to our Sponsors, Exhibitors and Presenters. It is going to be a great lineup and largest attendance this year!

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Interview on Commodity Culture]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/interview-on-commodity-culture-601https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/interview-on-commodity-culture-601Fri, 24 Jul 2026 00:12:48 GMTI believe the stage is set for a major supercycle in the energy sector. With the war in Iran showing no signs of easing, the geopolitical risk premium could remain a significant driver of oil prices for the foreseeable future. In my view, oil has the potential to average as high as US$120 per barrel by 2026.

I’ll explain the supply and demand fundamentals behind this outlook, discuss the key risks and opportunities shaping global energy markets, and reveal where I see the greatest investment potential across the energy sector. If you’re looking to position your portfolio for what could be one of the most compelling energy markets in years, you won’t want to miss it.

Schachter’s Eye on Energy is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

]]><![CDATA[War Premium Now Nearly US$20/b. It Could Expand Over US$50/b If Iran Gets Its Proxies, Western Gulf Nations And Israel Into All Out War.]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/war-premium-now-nearly-us20b-it-couldhttps://josefschachter.substack.com/p/war-premium-now-nearly-us20b-it-couldWed, 22 Jul 2026 17:29:31 GMTThe IRGC and Iran’s hawks are leading Iran to the precipice as they continue to taunt President Trump and the US military. Daily attacks by both sides and the killing of American servicemen has caused the President of the United States to have his military send in more fighter aircraft and dozens of refueling planes, providing him with the option to expand the war if he chooses. Iran on the other hand sees themselves having a winning hand with the Strait of Hormuz closed and like in Vietnam and the North Vietnamese, the longer they stay in the game and the longer they persist in taunting America; they see this as a winning hand. The problem is, infrastructure on both sides of the Persian Gulf is being destroyed. Bridges, roads, civilian airports, power facilities, and water desalination plants are making the quality of life for people on both sides of the Persian Gulf extremely harsh. At some point either the moderates in Iran regain the initiative and talks resume or the war could escalate and bring in additional fighting and expanded targets. Iran now has a long range drone, the Shahed 136, which has a range of 1500 miles and carries a bigger payload. So American attacks on the western side of Iran would not impact these drones which could reach the western side of the Gulf from eastern Iran. They have the range to hit American naval forces in the Arabian Sea. Does President Trump expand the war by sending American troops to take Karg Island? Does Iran ask the Houthis to start attacking Saudi Arabia as well as shipping in the Red Sea? Do they end up closing both key Straits which would mean oil would not be able to get to Asia? Will Iran and its proxies restart fighting with Israel? All of this means that the next week or two are very critical to come back from the precipice of all out war or to renewed peace talks. We hope for the latter but the noise right now is by the ‘Hawks’ on both sides.

WTI crude oil rose from US$67.00/b on July 2nd to US$87.29/b today (intraday high US$88.61/b). If rational behavior and proportional attacks continue then the crude trading range may be between US$75/b and $94/b in the near term. If the war expands to US invasion and capture of Kharg Island, then prices could rapidly exceed the recent high and move up to new 2026 price highs. On the other hand if peace negotiations recommence and show substantive early progress, then WTI would fall below the July 2nd low and reach our downside target of US$64 - US$66/b. The coming two weeks should indicate if the ‘Iranian moderates’ have retaken control of the negotiations and the IRGC restrained. President Trump is providing cover for the ‘Iranian moderates’ by re-initiating a blockade of the country - harming its economy, and attacking IRGC targets. Water and the lack thereof throughout the region could be the reason for pragmatism to return.

Our forecast has been for an average price in 2026 of US$80/b for WTI, rising in 2027 as demand growth picks up and SPR’s are rebuilt to average US$90/b. If the warmongers keep control of the war, then our forecast for 2026 is too low. We were close to getting new BUY signals triggered in early July, but this latest twist means patience is required for a bit longer. We will send out an SER Action Alert to SER subscribers when the BUY signals are triggered. We plan to add new energy ideas to consider and highlight the plethora of bargains that are available. If interested in our BUY recommendations, please become an SER subscriber.

Catch the Energy Conference:

Registration is Now Open - Join Industry Leaders at the Catch the Energy Conference!

Tickets are now on sale for the public. Become a subscriber and get two free tickets to the conference. Use coupon code CTE26 at checkout to receive $100 off the first year of an annual subscription, along with the two complimentary conference tickets. Public tickets are currently available at the early bird price of $119 each until September 18th, after which they will increase to $179 each.

To find out more go to www.catchtheenergyconference.com. We did sell out last year so if you would like to attend, please get your tickets as soon as possible.

As usual SER subscribers will receive two complimentary tickets to the event. We look forward to seeing you there!

We are working away on getting our Presenters for this year’s conference. Below are those already signed up with confirmation forms in. We have met with other companies and will update this list as their confirmations come in. We have room for 45 companies. A ‘Wait List’ has been set up as we usually get a few takeovers each year providing presentation slots to those on that list. Please put the event in your calendar for October 17, 2026 if you can come to Calgary. This year’s event will be our biggest and best yet and the program will have some new and exciting features. If you are an institutional investor and plan to attend please let us know as we may be able to provide access to management teams on Friday, October 16th at the Calgary Petroleum Club.

Thank you to our Sponsors, Exhibitors and Presenters. It is going to be a great lineup and largest attendance this year!

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Interview on Geopolitics & Empire]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/interview-on-geopolitics-and-empirehttps://josefschachter.substack.com/p/interview-on-geopolitics-and-empireMon, 20 Jul 2026 15:10:00 GMTIn this interview we discuss the evolving landscape of the global oil and gas sector. I identify a new bull market cycle that began in 2020, driven largely by the industrial needs of the developing world and the essential role of fossil fuels in mining green energy minerals. I detail how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the conflict in Ukraine create significant market volatility and supply risks. I provide a technical outlook on price floors and investment strategies, specifically highlighting the resilience of the American and Canadian energy markets. While addressing the rise of electric vehicles and data centers, I argue that traditional hydrocarbons will remain dominant into the 2030s.

Secure Your Spot at the Catch the Energy Conference – And Save on Your Subscription

Tickets are now on sale for the Catch the Energy Conference in Calgary on October 17, 2026. Join leading investors, analysts, and energy executives for a full day of market insights, investment ideas, and networking.

Subscribe to the Schachter Energy Report and receive two complimentary conference tickets. Simply use coupon code CTE26 at checkout to save $100 off your first year of an annual subscription and claim your two free conference tickets.

Public tickets are currently available at the early bird price of $119 each until September 18th, after which they will increase to $179 each.

Don’t miss this opportunity to save on your subscription and attend one of Canada’s premier energy investment conferences. Subscribe today:

https://schachterenergyreport.ca/subscriptions/

Here is our current lineup of presenters and sponsors. We have just a few spots left!

]]><![CDATA[We Expect Negotiations To Begin Again As Both The US and Iran Are Not Gaining From Current Escalation.]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/we-expect-negotiations-to-begin-againhttps://josefschachter.substack.com/p/we-expect-negotiations-to-begin-againWed, 15 Jul 2026 18:06:50 GMTThe burial of the prior Supreme Leader gave the Iranian ‘hawks’ the window to gain momentum against the ‘moderates’ and they initiated hostilities against crude oil tankers, cargo ships, US naval assets and US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. WTI crude oil rose from US$67.00/b on July 2nd to US$81.27 on July 14th. It is now in a trading range between US$78 and $84/b. If the war expands to US invasion and capture of Kharg Island, then prices could rapidly exceed the US$84/b high. On the other hand if peace negotiations recommence in Pakistan or Qatar and show substantive progress, then WTI would fall below the July 2nd low and reach our downside target of US$64 - US$66/b. The coming days will likely indicate if the ‘Iranian moderates’ have retaken control of the negotiations and the IRGC restrained. President Trump is providing cover for the ‘Iranian moderates’ by re-initiating a blockade of the country - harming its economy, and attacking IRGC targets. His threat to begin charging tolls for Strait passage was another scare tactic which he quickly reversed after Middle East producers and European consuming nations balked at the idea.

WTI is at US$79.24/b today as we write this report and up nearly US$5/b from last week’s level of US$74.57/b as fighting recommenced. Crude is now overbought and a correction is to be expected. Note that the price did not rise to over US$90/b which we saw in May/June when fighting occurred regularly. Markets are expecting some resolution or progress and of note the movement of crude away from the Strait is helping. Our forecast is for an average price in 2026 of US$80/b for WTI, rising in 2027 as demand growth picks up to average US$90/b. We were close to getting new BUY signals triggered in early July, but this latest twist means patience is required for a bit longer. We will send out an SER Action Alert to SER subscribers when the BUY signals are triggered. We plan to add new energy ideas to consider and highlight the bargains that are available. If interested in our BUY recommendations, please become an SER subscriber.

Catch the Energy Conference:

Registration is Now Open - Join Industry Leaders at the Catch the Energy Conference!

Tickets are now on sale for the public. Become a subscriber and get two free tickets to the conference. Use coupon code CTE26 at checkout to receive $100 off the first year of an annual subscription, along with the two complimentary conference tickets. Public tickets are currently available at the early bird price of $119 each until September 18th, after which they will increase to $179 each.

To find out more go to www.catchtheenergyconference.com. We did sell out last year so if you would like to attend, please get your tickets as soon as possible.

As usual SER subscribers will receive two complimentary tickets to the event. We look forward to seeing you there!

We are working away on getting our Presenters for this year’s conference. Below are those already signed up with confirmation forms in. We have met with other companies and will update this list as their confirmations come in. We have room for 45 companies. A ‘Wait List’ has been set up as we usually get a few takeovers each year providing presentation slots to those on that list. Please put the event in your calendar for October 17, 2026 if you can come to Calgary. This year’s event will be our biggest and best yet and the program will have some new and exciting features. If you are an institutional investor and plan to attend please let us know as we may be able to provide access to management teams on Friday, October 16th at the Calgary Petroleum Club.

Thank you to our Sponsors, Exhibitors and Presenters. It is going to be a great lineup and largest attendance this year!

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Interview on Wealth Building Blueprint]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/interview-on-wealth-building-blueprint-a11https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/interview-on-wealth-building-blueprint-a11Tue, 14 Jul 2026 15:42:28 GMTIn this interview we discuss oil, energy stocks, the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz, oil demand, natural gas, coal, nuclear energy, small modular reactors, and the outlook for Canadian energy stocks.

I explain why oil prices could move higher into the winter, why Q4 2026 may be important for oil demand, and why I believe there may be no peak oil demand for many decades. We also discuss bearish oil narratives, the oil war premium, Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries, and why energy investing may offer major opportunities for investors today.

Schachter’s Eye on Energy is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

]]><![CDATA[Interview on Howe Street]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/interview-on-howe-street-b32https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/interview-on-howe-street-b32Mon, 13 Jul 2026 15:40:22 GMTPlease listen to my interview on Howe Street below:

Schachter’s Eye on Energy is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

]]><![CDATA[Interview on the David Lin Report]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/interview-on-the-david-lin-report-212https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/interview-on-the-david-lin-report-212Sat, 11 Jul 2026 21:06:11 GMTIn this interview we discuss the Strait of Hormuz conflict, global oil supplies, strategic reserves, recession risks, and investment opportunities in Canadian energy.

Get Your Tickets Today!

Don’t miss one of Canada’s premier energy investment events. Secure your place at the Catch the Energy Conference and join leading investors, analysts, and energy executives for a full day of market insights, expert presentations, and valuable networking opportunities.

Register Now

Here is our current lineup of Sponsors and Presenters.

]]><![CDATA[With Burial Of Supreme Leader Iranian Hawks Restart War. Will This Last Days Or Weeks Before Moderates Regain The Initiative?]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/with-burial-of-supreme-leader-iranianhttps://josefschachter.substack.com/p/with-burial-of-supreme-leader-iranianThu, 09 Jul 2026 04:10:09 GMTOptimism about a deal with Iranian moderates took WTI crude prices in June down from a high of US$97.00/b to a low of US$67.04/b on July 2nd. Then with the burial days for the prior Supreme Leader, the IRGC and the militant mullahs got their revenge on the moderates leading the negotiations. The IRGC attacked three crude carriers and an LNG tanker using the US navy protected Oman zone. Traffic using this lane has now slowed materially. The US retaliated by ending the allowance for Iran to sell oil without sanctions. The IRGC then upped the ante and attacked 80 targets in the western Gulf including US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. President Trump ‘trumped’ the IRGC and had the US military attack 85 targets in Iran (IRGC bases and military manufacturing sites). As a result President Trump says the ceasefire is over and that the US navy is preparing to blockade Iran once again. Crude oil prices are lifting materially. I suspect WTI could rise to the US$80 - US$82/b level (now up >US$4/b to US$74.57/b and on the rise) as we await the Iranian moderates regaining the initiative and returning to the bargaining table. This may take weeks at the outside. Once real talks resume in Pakistan or Qatar we should see oil retreat once again and decline to the US$64 - US$66/b level that we have been forecasting as the potential low. The IRGC holds the weapons in Iran and don’t want to give up power, but the moderates have a weak economy, a falling currency, a lack of water and anxious citizens who want the war over; pushing their leaders to get a deal that saves face and improves their lives. Expect lots of nasty rhetoric but in the end the talks should restart soon and the details not so much in Iran’s favour as the previous MOU noted.

WTI is at US$74.57/b today as we write this report, up nearly US$6/b from last week’s level of US$68.64/b. Our forecast is for an average price in 2026 of US$80/b for WTI, rising in 2027 as demand growth returns to average US$90/b. We were close to getting new BUY signals triggered, but this latest twist in getting a deal with Iran has lifted prices that should reverse soon. Some forecasters see the July 2nd low of US$67.04/b as the bottom, but our work shows that we should have one more meaningful decline after this bounce. We will send out an SER Action Alert to SER subscribers when the BUY signal is triggered, adding new ideas to consider and highlighting the bargains that are to be available. If interested in our BUY recommendations, please become an SER subscriber.

Catch the Energy Conference:

Registration is Now Open - Join Industry Leaders at the Catch the Energy Conference!

Tickets are now on sale for the public. Become a subscriber and get two free tickets to the conference. Use coupon code CTE26 at checkout to receive $100 off the first year of an annual subscription, along with the two complimentary conference tickets. Public tickets are currently available at the early bird price of $119 each until September 18th, after which they will increase to $179 each.

To find out more go to www.catchtheenergyconference.com. We did sell out last year so if you would like to attend, please get your tickets as soon as possible.

As usual SER subscribers will receive two complimentary tickets to the event. We look forward to seeing you there!

We are working away on getting our Presenters for this year’s conference. Below are those already signed up with confirmation forms in. We have met with other companies and will update this list as their confirmations come in. We have room for 45 companies. A ‘Wait List’ has been set up as we usually get a few takeovers each year providing presentation slots to those on that list. Please put the event in your calendar for October 17, 2026 if you can come to Calgary. This year’s event will be our biggest and best yet and the program will have some new and exciting features. If you are an institutional investor and plan to attend please let us know as we may be able to provide access to management teams on Friday, October 16th at the Calgary Petroleum Club.

Thank you to our Sponsors, Exhibitors and Presenters. It is going to be a great lineup and largest attendance this year!

Read more

]]><![CDATA[Interview on In it to Win it]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/interview-on-in-it-to-win-ithttps://josefschachter.substack.com/p/interview-on-in-it-to-win-itFri, 03 Jul 2026 17:28:25 GMTIn this interview, I discuss how I believe we are already in the third major energy Supercycle. I compare today’s market to the 1970s oil boom and the 1999 to 2008 China driven commodity run. My view is that underinvestment and rising emerging market demand are creating a long-term opportunity in oil and gas.

Special Offer

If you enjoyed this interview and would like to receive our independent energy market research, subscribe to the Schachter Energy Report today and save $100 on an annual subscription using coupon code CTE26.

As a bonus, new annual subscribers will also receive two complimentary tickets to the Catch the Energy Conference, taking place on October 17, 2026, in Calgary, Alberta.

Join leading investors, analysts, and energy executives for a full day of market insights, investment ideas, and unparalleled networking opportunities.

Use coupon code CTE26 to save $100 and claim your two free conference tickets today.

Subscribe Now

Here is our current lineup of Sponsors and Presenters.

]]><![CDATA[Iran Is Winning The Propaganda War By Not Showing Up For Talks With The US In Qatar.]]>https://josefschachter.substack.com/p/iran-is-winning-the-propaganda-warhttps://josefschachter.substack.com/p/iran-is-winning-the-propaganda-warWed, 01 Jul 2026 20:13:41 GMTPeace talks this week in Qatar were one sided with only the US going in to meet with Qatari negotiating officials. Iranian diplomats did not attend as if giving the finger to the US once again. The only good news is that the negotiating teams handling the specific details continue to work and we are hopeful progress is being made. Iran continues to play games by telling ship owners that their ships must contact their country for approval to go through the Strait. While they aren’t charging during the 60 day MOU window they are planning to set up a fee structure called a ‘safety’ or an ‘environmental charge’ once the 60 days are over. They are also running around talking about getting US$6 billion from Qatar which is holding US$12 billion of their money in sanctioned restricted accounts. If Qatar gives them this money (and Qatar is the closest western Gulf country to Iran) that would be a difficult situation for the US and again shows how Iran is gaining. When we hear comments about progress the US seems to have one view and Iran around a 180 degree difference. Again this may be for domestic consumption by each country but the problem is they’re not on the same page and so getting to a resolution is going to be difficult.

WTI is at US$68.64/b now, down from last week’s level of US$69.96/b. We may see crude prices go down another $2-3/b but we are nearing a climactic bottom for the price which we see moving higher during Q4 2026. Our forecast is for an average price in 2026 of US $80 per barrel for WTI, rising in 2027 as demand growth returns to average US $90/b. The reopening of the Strait with significant movement of crude ships from the Gulf to buyers around the world has provided relief from the prices when the Straits were closed. Energy stocks are quite cheap. We are close to getting new BUY signals triggered. We will send out an SER Action Alert to SER subscribers when that happens, adding new ideas to consider and highlighting the bargains that are to be considered. We expect our BUY signal to be triggered in the coming week or so. If interested in our BUY recommendations please become an SER subscriber.

Catch the Energy Conference:

Registration is Now Open - Join Industry Leaders at the Catch the Energy Conference!

Tickets are now on sale for the public. Become a subscriber and get two free tickets to the conference. Use coupon code CTE26 at checkout to receive $100 off the first year of an annual subscription, along with the two complimentary conference tickets. Public tickets are currently available at the early bird price of $119 each until September 18th, after which they will increase to $179 each.

To find out more go to www.catchtheenergyconference.com . We did sell out last year so if you would like to attend please get your tickets as soon as possible.

As usual SER subscribers will receive two complimentary tickets to the event. We look forward to seeing you there!

We are working away on getting our Presenters for this year’s conference. Below are those already signed up with confirmation forms in. We have met with other companies and will update this list as their confirmations come in. We have room for 45 companies. A ‘Wait List’ has been set up as we usually get a few takeovers each year providing presentation slots to those on that list. Please put the event in your calendar for October 17, 2026 if you can come to Calgary. This year’s event will be our biggest and best yet and the program will have some new and exciting features. If you are an institutional investor and plan to attend please let us know as we may be able to provide access to management teams on Friday October 16th at the Calgary Petroleum Club.

Thank you to our Sponsors, Exhibitors and Presenters. It is going to be a great lineup and largest attendance this year!

Read more

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