As many of you know, I tend to be a bit of a role player junkie and am willing to go pretty deep to talk about guys who are barely on rosters. Charles Bassey being with Golden State this year is my kind of signing, as opposed to DeMar DeRozan getting to Denver, though I appreciate both in their own way.

There are still quite a few open roster spots around the NBA to be filled. Specifically, teams have open two-way contract slots, which would involve players who are likely to split their time between the G League and the NBA. Those teams are, as I understand it based on public reporting:

• Boston Celtics — 1 open two-way slot

• Brooklyn Nets — 2

• Chicago Bulls — 1

• Golden State Warriors — 1

• Memphis Grizzlies — 1

• Milwaukee Bucks — 1

• New Orleans Pelicans — 1

• Philadelphia 76ers — 1

• Sacramento Kings — 1

• Washington Wizards — 1

Hence, there’s ample chance for players who were waived this offseason — or performed well in the G League — to get looks at some two-way contracts. Today, I want to talk about a few of these teams, along with a player they could target based on their needs and timelines. Two-way deals are tricky to project into the future because guys get waived all the time, but as teams like the Heat are a testament to, you can find some diamonds in the rough on occasion.

Reminder: Only players with fewer than 4 years of NBA experience can sign a two-way deal. NBA experience counts as any time a player is in an NBA game.

The Brooklyn Nets, in Need of Shooting

The Nets were, by most accounts, a horrific shooting team last season. They shot an average of 34% from deep, which was dead-last. In addition, they had a lot of guards who wanted to handle the ball and couldn’t actually shoot off the dribble in general. New rookie Mikel Brown Jr. should help a bit with that this season, but there’s still some gap off the bench. Hence, I’d like to introduce you to Miles Kelly.

While no prospective two-way contractee can fill a gap for a team, Kelly has the skill set to solve a lot of the team’s shooting problems if he develops into a real NBA player. In the G League last season, Kelly — a 6’4” shooting guard — averaged over 22 points per game on 39.7% three-point shooting, a blistering pace. He’s just 23 years old and is coming off an existing two-way contract with the Texas Legends, the affiliate team of the Dallas Mavericks, and he’s always been an efficient shooter with NBA-level athleticism. He doesn’t provide tons otherwise (he’s an average defender in general), but like everyone tends to say: If you can shoot, you can find a role in the NBA.

The Nets don’t need another ball handler, and Kelly’s off-the-dribble game still isn’t as much of a strength as you would expect given his range. That’s less of a problem for Brooklyn’s system given the former lack of need, making Kelly a pretty clean fit.

As of now, he’s unsigned. I was surprised to see the Mavericks waive him, but now that gives him ample opportunity to sign a new deal with a team that can give him more opportunity. While the Nets aren’t good, that’s advantageous for players who actually need opportunity — and Kelly, when given it, may become a real NBA rotation player by his shooting skill alone.

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LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards, and Jonathan Kuminga — the Timberwolves look like the best brand of basketball chaos we’ve seen in a hot minute!

This past week, it was announced in what felt like a way out of left field report that former Hawks (and Warriors) free agent Jonathan Kuminga was signing with the T-Wolves on a two-year, $12.4 million deal with a player option in the second year. It’s a prove-it moment for Kuminga, who has had some crazy ups and downs during his young career due to a penchant for poor shot selection and wanting to be the guy on his teams.

Hence, when this was first announced, my big thought was “Uh oh,” considering both Ant and LaMelo are also on this roster — as my conversation with a friend below is a testament to:

After a few days to simmer on it (and dig into the numbers), though, I feel differently. What the Timberwolves are doing is risky, yes, but it’s also one of the NBA’s best strategies at increasing your chances of reaching the Finals — with one exception that could derail the whole season.

The 30/30/22 Team

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Aaaaaand we’re back!

We are deep into the offseason at this point, but we’re only 38 days away from the preseason, so it’s almost (kind of) over!

This past week, not a lot of actual basketball moves happened, but a decent amount of off-court things (some of which affect on-court play) did. We have Kawhi Leonard suddenly realizing now is a suspiciously good time to be media-friendly in China, the Trail Blazers getting a terrible gut punch, and Klay Thompson getting the best NBA team for his boating obsession — it’s all happening!

Let’s just run through everything all at once here…

Other News, Rumors, and Fun Facts

• Kawhi Leonard is currently being the most charismatic media personality he’s ever been in his career over in China. He’s doing interviews, is on social media, and, suspiciously, has a video of him scrolling past the ESPN article that clears him and the Clippers of any wrongdoing, which was later rebutted by the NBA. On one hand, this is hilarious. This is a player who has been known for having an anti-media personality for years, and now that his previous sponsorships and lack of marketing have been called into question, he’s suddenly touring China and is practically on a press run. I’m not accusing anyone of anything here, but it’s funny nonetheless.

• Speaking of the above, ESPN recently noted that despite Adam Silver telling teams that the investigations would be wrapped up before the season, sources are saying that it may bleed into 2027 if, and I quote, “the parties do not agree on the findings.” Part of this is a bit confusing, as it implies the Clippers have to be okay with the punishment and accept it (though maybe they do, if the NBA wants to avoid arbitration), but it feels realistic at this point that this whole thing gets stretched out into November.

• Klay Thompson was officially bought out by the Mavericks this past week and swiftly signed with the Miami Heat on a two-year deal. Interestingly, Klay reportedly gave back $9.8 million (!!!) to the Mavericks as part of the deal to leave, which feels like the largest give-back (as a percentage of total contract value) that any player has had in a long while. The new deal that Klay is on is worth $13 million with a player option in the second season, so he’s getting back some of it anyway. Money aside, Miami is undoubtedly the best fit for Klay’s well-known boating habits and is also a solid player to pair with Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo, who can both provide great kickout opportunities to the former All-Star.

• File this under the Blazers Curse: Portland’s high-flying shooting guard, Shaedon Sharpe, tore his meniscus in an offseason workout recently, which will keep him out for an expected 6 months. First off, that’s a terrible sign for the already injury-riddled guard whose game is primarily made up of his explosiveness, but it’s an equally terrible sign for the Blazers, who are trying to take a leap this year alongside Ja Morant after a few years of being average at best. Sharpe averaged over 20 points last season in under 30 minutes per game, but only played 50 games due to calf issues and a tibula fracture.

• The Warriors are signing Georges Niang to a one-year deal for $3.9 million — a great deal, if you ask me! Niang has always been a good role player at minimum and a great one in his prime, shooting 40% oir above from deep in 7 of his last 8 (!!) seasons, so the Warriors add some easy spacing here.

• Remember Sharife Cooper? The 25-year-old was a top-30 recruit in high school and went on to average a ridiculous 20/8/4 line in his lone season at Auburn, only to struggle to not get a full NBA look for a while. Some of it was due to some on-and-off injury issues (particularly with his ankles), but also because of his defensive challenges. Regardless, he averaged over 7 PPG on 38% three-point shooting this season with the Wizards across over 40 games (and it was in only 17 minutes per game), so he has some juice to him. He’ll be heading to China to play for the Flying Leopards in the Chinese Basketball Association, where he’s likely to absolutely tear up the league (as most high-scoring guards tend to do there).

• Apparently there are two outcomes in (the wildly underrated narrative of) Bennedict Mathurin’s restricted free agency situation. According to Jake Fischer, he will either be sign-and-traded to the Pelicans, or he’ll sign the qualifying offer with the Clippers, which would set him up for unrestricted free agency next year. Mathurin is a heck of an offensive talent and probably one of my favorite players to watch when he’s hot, but he does have some bad shot tendency issues and I’d see why some teams may not want to pay a bag to him right now.

• Speaking of Fischer’s reporting, he also mentions that Jalen Duren — amidst a weird situation with the Pistons — is expected to re-sign with the team for over $160 million. I’ve talked at length about Duren’s stardom (and playoff struggles) before, and I firmly believe the stats and history back up paying him his money. At 22 years of age, Duren provides something that few bigs in the league do, and him and Cade Cunningham already have incredible chemistry. Chances are, he’ll get better in the playoffs, and you can’t afford to let guys like him walk.

• Another NBA team had a massive transaction this past week: Marc Lore — the Timberwolves owner who finalized a transaction for the team last year — is selling his controlling stake in the T-Wolves to minority investor Marc Stad at a $4.5 billion valuation. Stad is in the venture capital world (much like Josh Kushner over at the Lakers), and while it isn’t a full sellout, this feels like another chapter in what has been a really weird team ownership mindset over the past few weeks.

• France and Serbia played eachother twice in the past week as a World Cup warmup, with each team grabbing one win (though France almost lost a 19-point lead in the second matchup). And, yes, we got Joker vs. Wemby, which you wouldn’t typically get to see outside of the NBA season, and it’s always a fun time to watch some quality international ball:

• My favorite quote of the week is Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic saying: “My Michael Jordan is Scottie Barnes.”

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Let’s conduct a thought experiment for a moment, shall we?

Imagine you’re walking to a park with a group, and you’ve walked one way for a very long time, and everyone else who is walking to said park has also walked that way with you. Then, slowly, rumors spread about a faster way to get to said park. Over time, more and more people begin to drop from the group, going this newfound way that is supposedly more efficient. What do you do? Do you jump ship early to this newfound route, do you wait for a certain number of people to trickle out, or do you adopt the new route on occasion, only to then revert to the old route while wearing shoes that are very big and made of tungsten?

Don’t like the last option? Well, you’re probably not the Nuggets, who just threw on a new pair of kicks.

This past week, the Denver Nuggets went and signed DeMar DeRozan, one of the most consistent scorers of the past decade who is one of my favorites to watch. Unfortunately, he is also a brand of scorer that may be out of style, and one might say unwinning given the current analytical climate of the NBA. Namely, it’s about the mid-range, which analysts have said for years is the most anti-analytical shot given its lower expected value. And DeMar takes a lot of mid-range shots. How many?

This many:

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LeBron James, Jalen Brunson, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Cade Cunningham, and (probably) Kawhi Leonard. Those are all guys you have to go through in the East if you want to win a championship this year — no more Western Conference imbalances, maybe!

To beat that group of guys, you have to have a couple of things:

• A superstar

• A secondary star who can fill in for the superstar

• A really good center who can combat the likes of Karl-Anthony Towns, (probably) Jalen Duren, Bam Adebayo, and Joel Embiid

As it turns out, the Cavaliers may have all of those things, and this week has been a busy one for the team to bolster its chances.

Over the past two weeks, the team has traded for Tre Mann, re-routed him, dealt Max Strus, nabbed Cam Whitmore, sent out a juicy unprotected first-rounder, acquired Peyton Watson, and, finally, re-signed James Harden to a decently palatable deal. The question, of course, is whether or not it’s enough.

And, ironically, “enough” is more about Harden and the existing players than the ones they’ve shuffled around.

No Partin’ With Harden

The biggest move — sorry Peyton Watson — for the Clippers this offseason has to be retaining James Harden. As I’ve mentioned in the past, much of Harden’s public persona has been wrapped up in two things:

1. His lack of defense

2. His inability to consistently perform in the playoffs

The first is very true, the latter is only partially (this guy went up the Warriors a lot). What I feel has gone largely unrecognized is just how much trading for Harden boosted the Cavs’ chances at winning from the get go. I’m a fan of Darius Garland, but swapping him for The Beard was the best (offensive) move the team could have made:

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Aaaaaand we’re back!

Well, this has certainly been a week in the NBA. We’ve had not one, but two (maybe even three!) legal dramas play out in the league, and it’s all centralized in Los Angeles, strangely. Since there’s no point in massaging out the story here, let’s just get right into what I would argue is the most important revelation of the week — if anyone can actually get it right…

ESPN vs. the NBA?

What a messy time this is to be a fan of the NBA. A couple of days ago, ESPN released a report that made things even messier, reporting that, and I quote,

“The NBA has found no evidence showing LA Clippers owner Steve Ballmer funneled money through team sponsors to pay Kawhi Leonard in order to circumvent the salary cap, according to three people with knowledge of discussions between the two sides in recent days.”

Welp.

The initial reaction to this by the average fan online seemed to be one of two things:

1. Steve Ballmer really got away with it, huh?

2. ESPN was fed this information by the Clippers to put pressure on the NBA

The latter point is a really intriguing one, if it’s true at all. Shortly after the ESPN report was released, the NBA’s PR account posted this:

I can’t remember exactly, but I believe the last time the NBA came out and made a statement against a piece of journalism was its response to the Tim Donaghy re-investigation by — again — ESPN back in 2019. In other words, this doesn’t really happen, and the fact that the league would come out and say that the article “contains numerous and significant inaccuracies” is fascinating. ESPN would then go on to mention that they attempted to get the NBA to comment as part of their article, but the league refused, so we’re getting into he-said-she-said territory here.

The second theory by NBA Twitter™ is more interesting if you believe that Ballmer is negotiating his own punishment with the league, which the ESPN article itself actually alludes to. However, I don’t know how Ballmer forcing the league’s hand and embarrassing them with a maybe-false report is helping his case.

The first theory — Ballmer got away with cap circumvention — would be more problematic if it ends up being true (and assuming Ballmer and the Clippers truly are guilty). ESPN reports that the league is looking into potential violations by employees who introduced Kawhi to sponsors, but that doesn’t relate to Ballmer (and it’s not even entirely certain what rule they would use to hand down a violation notice).

Let’s zoom out for a bit. If Steve Ballmer, the front office, and the Clippers at large truly did what has been alleged by Pablo Torre via his reporting (which has been incredibly in-depth and detailed, including emails and more), it will be one of the league’s biggest failures if the franchise is not punished. This is the same league that punished the Timberwolves by stripping them of 5 first-rounders because of Joe Smith, for goodness sake. And if Ballmer is using ESPN to get a bit of extra word out in favor of him, that’s also problematic, but for other reasons less related to Ballmer.

The league’s investigations have stretched out quite long to this point — over 11 months. To let it stretch into the regular season, when Kawhi Leonard could be with the Raptors if the trade goes through, would be, to put it lightly, not ideal. Hence, I think we generally expect to hear more over the next month or so. Whether fans like the outcome is going to be another story.

Buss vs. The Busses?

The Lakers sold again, somehow! We’ll talk about now-former owner Mark Walter’s side of the equation in a moment, but the Lakers are now largely in the hands of former Disney CEO Bob Iger and venture capitalist Josh Kushner. As shocking as the deal was, it feels as though the most media-driving drama has yet to play out fully yet. On Monday, the Buss family (who have been in the Laker business for 45+ years) reportedly voted to sell their remaining 17.8% stake in the team to Iger and Kushner, only for reports to be updated later that Lakers governor Jeanie Buss is disputing the deal.

This is some Succession-type family drama: Jeanie, who removed her brother Jim as governor in 2017, was voted against by all other Buss siblings to sell the team (she did not actually respond to the vote, so technically it’s 5-0). She claims that due to the way the Buss Family Trust is written up, no sale can be "effectuated without approval by the co-trustees, i.e. Jeanie, Janie and Joey Buss." If the deal were to go through, she would lose the ability to be the Lakers governor since you need a certain ownership percentage to hold the role for an NBA team, hence where some of the pushback is likely coming from.

On top of all that, 3 of the siblings are said to have taken a vote months ago to sell the team, with 2 more joining in this time, and part of the process involved talks to dissolve the current family trust, thereby creating a new one and giving them the ability to sell the team. It is currently unclear whether that actually happened, but it looks like we’re about to find out.

And if you hear a noise, it’s just Netflix executives rubbing their hands together feverishly.

Other News, Rumors, and Fun Facts

• Speaking of legal dramas, more has come to light about the sale of the Lakers from Mark Walter to Iger and Kushner. As it turns out — and this was reported on previously but confirmed recently — Walter may have sold the team as a way to raise cash to pay off debts that he is currently being investigated for by the federal government. He is over $20 billion in debt, which means that based on his stake in the Lakers that he sold, he likely still has around two-thirds to pay back. That has led to rumors that he may sell his stake in Chelsea, the soccer club, and then there’s also the Dodgers, and nobody knows what’s going to happen there. In other words, more television rights for Netflix!

• The Lakers are also reported to be unable to build out their front office until the ownership situation gets resolved, per The Athletic. The team was prepared to have two assistant general managers (one focused on analytics and one focused on scouting), but they haven’t made any inroads on the pro scouting side, and it’s near-impossible to fill out a staff this close to the preseason if it drags out any longer.

• Amidst all of the above, we did actually have a trade happen! Perennial all-trade candidate Dennis Schroder got dealt to the Hornets (plus some cash) in return for Tre Mann being shipped off to the Cavs. The Cavs get some cap flexibility here, reportedly to pursue either Jonathan Kuminga or Peyton Watson, which feels pretty boom-or-bust but an okay risk to take. On the flip side, the Hornets get not just a very solid guard, but one who has been a star for the German national team, which may immediately plug in some nice camaraderie for rookies Christian Anderson and Hannes Steinbach, who both play for Germany.

• Russell Westbrook retired this past week after what was one of the NBA’s most polarizing but downright incredible careers, and apparently he had offers on the table to keep going. The Wizards offered him a two-year deal, which he declined, and the Kings offered him a deal in a reduced role, which was also turned down. In other words, a Hall of Famer would rather retire than play for the Wizards and Kings — welp.

• The Phoenix Suns have re-signed Haywood Highsmith, after previously having waived the forward last week. The length of the deal was not detailed, nor the amount of money, but he was previously guaranteed $1 million and averaged 38% from three last season, so I like Highsmith as a role player for Phoenix for sure.

• In what may be a very underrated deal, Trendon Watford has signed a one-year, $2.9 million contract with the Pelicans. Watford has historically been an efficient finisher and well-rounded playmaker despite being 6’8”, and while he never plays tons of minutes, he can certainly fill a solid bench role.

• Dillon Brooks has signed a 3-year, $73 million deal to stay with the Phoenix Suns, who seem to have embraced Brooks’ villan-esque personality (and three-point shooting) from the jump. Brooks is coming off a 34% three-point shooting season, but shot 39% in the year before and looked to have become a really good sniper from deep after a few down years, so we’ll see if he can keep it up this season.

• The Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame saw a new class of inductees this week, with the following being brought into the Hall:

  • North American Committee Inductees (in alphabetical order):

    • Joey Crawford [Referee]

    • Mark Few [Coach]

    • Doc Rivers [Coach]

    • Amar’e Stoudemire [Player]

    Women’s Committee Inductees:

    • 1996 United States Women’s National Team

    • Elena Delle Donne [Player]

    • Chamique Holdsclaw [Player]

    • Candace Parker [Player]

    Contributors Committee Inductees:

    • Mike D’Antoni

• Interesting to see Doc Rivers put in prior to an official retirement (and I’ve heard some unhappiness about Joey Crawford’s entry, but I don’t have perspective on that) — the rest of this is pretty as-expected.

• The Nets just signed a guy with one of the best names in basketball to an Exhibit 10 deal: Nick Pringle. Pringle played off the bench at Arkansas this past season, and while he didn’t put up any crazy numbers, he shot over 72% from the field and is a tenacious offensive rebounder to boot. An Exhibit 10 deal likely means he won’t make it past training camp (just by past history, it’s so rare for a guy to get an NBA deal after an E10), but the G League isn’t out of the question here. Hopefully Pringle has a chip on his shoulder this season (fully intentional, awfully forced pun right there).

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Some players are just dealt a bad hand in the NBA. I’m a believer that, for the vast majority of players (i.e., the not-LeBrons or Wembanyamas of the world), where you land matters for how you perform in the future. When a player is drafted into the NBA, they deal with factors ranging from the depth chart (who could be playing in front of them), front office mindsets, coaching styles, and many more — too many to count. Inevitably, some of the players will slip through the cracks, unable to fulfill their potential due to a lack of fit or opportunity.

Today, I want to take a look at how well statistically grounded that theory is, as well as the rookies this season who I’m a bit wary of based on it. First, let’s start with a brief explainer on why opportunity matters…

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When it comes to the NBA schedule, I do tend to lean more towards the opinion of Neil when it comes to how “fired up” I get:

I do enjoy a good NBA schedule release video or two, or 30 — did you see that kid who makes bird calls for the Hawks?! — but, at large, the NBA schedule doesn’t get me extremely hyped about specific matchups.

What I do get excited about is how the entire season takes shape for teams based on their schedule, and there are a lot of fun things to pick out of this one. Hence, let’s go for a classic Winners and Losers piece today, ranging from the very much winning (San Antonio!) to the very much not (Brooklyn!). Let’s begin with the former…

Winners: The Spurs, With the Smooth Schedule

Typically, it’s tough to follow up a Finals run (one that you did not win) with a season that goes “better” than it did in that season (for obvious reasons). However, it helps to have a smoother schedule and lock up a #1 seed, which the Spurs look well-equipped to do now. Based on ESPN’s power rankings — a flawed but decent proxy for team strength post-roster moves — the Spurs have a lovely combination of positive factors going for them:

• They play just 10 games against the top-5 in the rankings

• 56% of their schedule is against the bottom-15 teams in the league

• 8 of their 10 games against the top-10 happen after February 11

That last fact could be a positive or a negative depending on where the Spurs are by that point of the season, but I see it as a win. Getting the team’s footing back under them early in the year without the pressure of having to play the big dogs right away is a great recipe to lock down a #1 ranking in the West by Christmas. Then, post-All-Star break (when they’ve had time to make any moves they deem necessary), you get a chance to see what you’re really made of — and, crucially, that’s the point in the season where other teams are likely to be more beat up, injured, and discombobulated. Overall, this is great for the Spurs, much to the chagrin of another Western Conference team…

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Aaaaaand we’re back!

And, like the past few weeks, there really isn’t as much to discuss in the NBA at the moment! We’ll have some things to cover — Opening Night and Christmas Day games just got announced for the upcoming season — but, once again, we’re likely sticking to the Other News, Rumors, and Fun Facts section for this week.

Without further ado, let’s start with those schedule releases…

Other News, Rumors, and Fun Facts

• It’s official: We’ve got some very nice lineups for both Opening Day and Christmas this season, though the league would’ve been silly not to go for them. On Opening Day (October 20), we have:

  • Boston at Detroit (3 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock)

  • Philadelphia at New York (7 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock)

  • Oklahoma City at San Antonio (9:30 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock)

• I do find it strange that we have a 3 p.m. ET game on a Tuesday, so the Boston/Detroit matchup is a bit out there, but the other two matchups are absolute media catnip. You have LeBron and the Sixers heading across state lines to fight against the reigning champs, while the runner-ups take on the league’s other Western Conference favorite in the Thunder. It’s Wemby vs. SGA, Brunson vs. LeBron (and Maxey, and Embiid, and Jaylen Brown, and…), and it’s bound to result in some overreactions from your major media outlets. But that’s the fun in it, right?

• On the Christmas Day side, this is what we’re getting, all on ESPN/ABC:

  • 12 p.m. ET: Spurs at Knicks

  • 2:30 p.m. ET: Heat at Celtics

  • 5 p.m. ET: 76ers at Lakers

  • 8 p.m. ET: Thunder at Timberwolves

  • 10:30 p.m. ET: Nuggets at Warriors

• Rest in peace to those on the East Coast for that Warriors game (which reminds me that I’m surprised the Warriors are even here, though Steph still has the power to draw eyeballs). Spurs vs. Knicks — a Finals rematch — is bound to be fun, as will LaMelo Ball playing on Christmas Day with the Timberwolves, but the real main event is LeBron returning to LA for what is likely to be his last Christmas Day game. I’m still skeptical of the Lakers’ lineup outside of Luka, though. Walker Kessler is a defensive menace but little else right now, while Austin Reaves needs to follow up on the best season of his career with his 4-year, $180 million extension. I expect the Sixers to demolish the Lakers’ defense, so it’s up to Luka and crew to provide enough offense to actually make this interesting. Oh, and Giannis is here, against a weird Celtics team, but that almost feels like an afterthought at this point (and is at 2:30 p.m. ET, so the league agrees).

• The funniest Nuggets news came out this week — arguably the funniest that the team has had in years, at least since Jokic said “We can go home now.” Greek powerhouse Panathinaikos apparently made an offer to the Nuggets to buy out the last season of Jokic’s contract and bring him to Greece. This feels stupid, ridiculous, and not-at-all true, at least until Jokic’s agent confirmed it. The team wants to try again in 2027, so is there a chance that we see Jokic take a year off from the NBA and take his talents to Greece? It’d be the most shocking move in recent NBA history, so it feels unlikely, but maybe if they offer him a horse or two there might be something in it for him.

• Ben Simmons is trying to make a comeback to the NBA after a few years of injuries (among other things) derailed his once-promising, perennial All-Star career. He recently played in Australia’s minicamp and reportedly looked quite good, and several teams have expressed interest in signing him. If it’s true that he’s open to a veteran minimum deal — as ESPN reported recently — then it feels like it would be silly for a team not to pick him up as an off-the-bench presence, assuming he’s all there both mentally and physically.

• Somebody just found a very valuable piece of cardboard in Rhode Island this week, where a 1-of-1 Cooper Flagg rookie card just got pulled. The card, which is likely worth over a million dollars, has been coveted by the Mavericks organization itself, which has offered:

  • Two lower-level season tickets for 32 years.

  • A signed Flagg game-worn jersey.

  • A postgame photo with Flagg.

  • A private photo shoot with the NBA Rookie of the Year trophy and the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

  • A VIP tour of the Mavericks’ practice facility and American Airlines Center with a team meet-and-greet.

  • A “private basketball experience” for up to 10 guests at American Airlines Center.

  • A VIP experience at the Mavericks’ road game in Boston, including airfare, hotel and game tickets for the Mavericks-Celtics game.

• Look, I’d also appreciate season tickets for 32 years and a “private basketball experience,” but I’d also appreciate $1 million. We’ll see what the owner of the card ends up going with!

• Speaking of cards, a Michael Jordan-signed pack just sold for over $900,000 on eBay. Can you imagine just having these lying around?!

• According to Jake Fischer, James Harden and his representation are getting impatient as the team has been crafting some sort of (1) Jonathan Kuminga or (2) Peyton Watson sign-and-trade, and Fischer expects Harden “to be paid handsomely.” If it prevents the team from signing either Kuminga or Watson, it would be a bit of a shame — despite my previous warnings about both players — as both have potential to break out, but it’s also in the Cavs’ best interest to retain Harden despite playoff concerns.

• Bulls All-Star Norm Powell recently mentioned to the media that a lot of players are interested in joining Jamaica’s national team for the upcoming Olympics in 2028. Specifically, he noted that Devin Vassell, Amen and Ausar Thompson, Julian and Justin Champagnie, and Isaiah Stewart are all players who have expressed interest, which is fascinating to me. It’s likely because all of those players — possibly barring Amen Thompson — have a very low chance of ever making the real Olympic squad due to the competition in America (are you really going to be able to beat Cooper Flagg, Anthony Edwards, Scottie Barnes, Tyrese Haliburton, and an infinite number of other American stars out for a spot? It’s tough for the Isaiah Stewarts of the world, so I can see why they would want a shot at the limelight for a team, especially if they are of Jamaican descent.

• Mac McClung has officially signed with Spanish team Basquet Girona, giving the G League’s all-time leading scorer his first chance at becoming an international superstar. Basquet Girona is owned by Marc Gasol and is in the top-tier league of Spain, Liga ACB, so this is a really cool chance for a player who was always too good for the G League but couldn’t crack an NBA rotation. Plus, I wouldn’t complain if I were playing right outside of Barcelona — absolutely stunning city, if you’ve never been!

• Just want to throw this out there because of the wild overreactions that came out after the Finals: The Spurs are reportedly committed to De’Aaron Fox as their point guard, and while the starting decision between him and Dylan Harper will be decided based on play on the court, Fox is still a key piece. Fox caught a lot of flak for his poor play late into the playoffs, which was largely due to him playing through injury, which was only exacerbated by just how good Dylan Harper is. Harper may outplay Fox this season at some point, but this is also why you don’t overreact to a singular playoff run for a player who has been one of the best high-floor point guards (when healthy) of the past few years.

• Yuki Kawamura — once called Yuki Mane by a Grizzlies fan — is back in the NBA, though only on an Exhibit 10 deal via the Clippers. Yuki will always stick around in the G League if he wants due to his passing and scoring, but the height (5’7”) is a show-stopper for the NBA. But always a fun player to watch:

• The Buss family may be out of the Lakers business, but the former owners of the Purple and Gold are reportedly in talks with Tony Parker and French club ASVEL to purchase the EuroLeague team. ASVEL has been in some bad situations lately related to its financials (very common for a European basketball team, unfortunately), and the Buss family is looking to close the deal before the end of this year.

• MarJon Beauchamp, the 25-year-old guard who has spent much of his NBA career with the Bucks before bouncing around the league a bit, has signed with Bayern Munich overseas. I always liked Beauchamp as a player, though his primary issues (streaky shooting stretches and a general lack of ability to create his own shot with consistency) are likely why he’s overseas now, where he says he “wants to improve as a player.” I’d love to see him back in the NBA at some point!

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Typically, I try not to get into league drama that isn’t related to the actual basketball product. There’s enough commentary out there on various issues and scandals that I don’t feel the need to jump into — but the Kawhi Leonard situation is one that, in light of the recent reporting from Pablo Torre, I think is a very strange situation that’s worth talking about.

I don’t need to recap what’s already happened at this point, as everyone seems to know the spiel. This past week, Torre revealed via various sources that Daktronics, the company that makes the Clippers’ jumbotron and screens, is alleged to have had an under-the-table deal with Kawhi that effectively funneled multiple millions to his bank account, despite him never actually promoting the company’s services. Obviously, this would be (another) form of cap circumvention if true, and that would warrant (again) the most extensive punishment the NBA has ever doled out for a non-criminal offense.

I could go into my thoughts on the merit of the Kawhi investigation — which is continually ongoing and could stretch into the 2027 season — but I want to instead pivot to something else: The Raptors and Clippers, collectively, could end up hating any outcome that happens.

Just to recap, the Raptors traded for Kawhi Leonard with the following deal:

Raptors receive

• Kawhi Leonard

Clippers receive

• Gradey Dick

• Brandon Ingram

• First-round picks in 2031 and 2033

• Second-round picks in 2030 and 2033

• First-round pick swap in 2027

That is a high price to pay for a player who may or may not be able to play. If Kawhi is suspended in any way, shape, or form, the deal can and will fall through, as the Clippers have already agreed to put the trade on hold until the resolution of the current investigation.

But let’s run through that thought experiment for a moment. There are three primary options here:

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For a while now, we’ve been anxiously awaiting the new James Harden. Not necessarily a Hall of Famer and one of the greatest scorers of all time, but instead a player who is shed for salary reasons by his team and becomes a superstar on a new one.

Thankfully, Jalen Brunson exists. But this isn’t about Brunson!

There’s always more narrative room for a player like Brunson, who has overcome the strange circumstances that the Mavs put him in by letting him leave for the Knicks and has become a franchise legend. There were signs that he could do it, but the Knicks took a chance and ran with it.

This year, it seems like the maybe-kinda-sorta breakout candidate is Peyton Watson, if we can just figure out where he’ll go. In a month-long stretch without Nikola Jokic last season, the 6’8” jumbo wing averaged:

Jokić out: Dec. 31–Jan. 29

• 22.1 PPG

• 5.8 REB

• 44.3% 3PT%

Those are bonkers numbers, considering that in the first month of the season he averaged around 7 points per game. Now, as a restricted free agent, it appears that no one knows how to price him. The Bucks have taken a look, as have the Hawks, Cavs, and Clippers, but he wants a deal (reportedly) over $20 million per year. Is that reasonable?

And, most importantly, was his performance just a flash in the pan?

History gives us a pretty good view of what’s likely going to happen — let’s take a look:

Breaking Out, With Caveats

The primary reason that I want to take a look at Watson’s performance today is that his case was relatively unique. Typically — such as in the case of Jalen Brunson — you have players who break out mid-season, resulting in their team becoming real deep playoff contenders. That’s primarily because there is already a star on the team to pair their breakout with. However, for Watson, he did most of his work without Nikola Jokic.

With that in mind, to accurately assess Watson’s performance, you have to find players who broke out without their primary star present, even if only for a month.

In this case, a breakout requires:

• The team’s primary scorer was out for at least 8 of 15 team games and must have averaged over 18+ PPG that season.

• The replacement played in at least 8 of those star-out games.

• He averaged at least 18 MPG and 12 PPG in that window.

• His scoring rose by at least 4.0 PPG and 40% versus his prior 10 appearances.

So it’s specific, and intentionally so. With that in mind, here is a list of the top 10 breakouts in the past 20 years, including Watson:

• Earl Boykins (23.7 PPG without Carmelo Anthony, who averaged 28.9 PPG, in 2006-07)

• Chauncey Billups (22.7 PPG without Carmelo Anthony, who averaged 22.8 PPG, in 2008-09)

• Peyton Watson (22.1 PPG without Nikola Jokić, who averaged 27.7 PPG, in 2025-26)

• Marcus Thornton (21.5 PPG without Chris Paul, who averaged 18.7 PPG, in 2009-10)

• Darren Collison (20.5 PPG without Chris Paul, who averaged 18.7 PPG, in 2009-10)

• Antawn Jamison (20.0 PPG without Kyrie Irving, who averaged 18.5 PPG, in 2011-12)

• LaMarcus Aldridge (19.8 PPG without Brandon Roy, who averaged 21.5 PPG, in 2009-10)

• Wesley Matthews (19.5 PPG without LaMarcus Aldridge, who averaged 21.7 PPG, in 2011-12)

• Jrue Holiday (18.9 PPG without Deni Avdija, who averaged 24.2 PPG, in 2025-26)

• Andre Miller (18.4 PPG without Brandon Roy, who averaged 21.5 PPG, in 2009-10)

You can immediately see that Watson’s breakout is one of the best of the past two decades. Averaging over 22 points per game without a star is something that only Chauncey Billups and Earl Boykins did, though the former was an All-Star already and the latter ended up being, well, bad afterwards.

To really get a good idea of whether or not the breakout scoring tends to carry over into the next season, we can look at all the 30+ players who meet the breakout criteria, and check their next year’s stats. Unfortunately for Watson, history isn’t very kind — only 26% of players retain even 75% of their scoring output from their breakout, and just 3 out of 35 matched or exceeded it:

That’s already a bit of a bad omen for teams looking to acquire Watson’s services. But that’s not even the worst omen. Instead, that honor goes to the fact that, when players who broke out leave their teams before the following season, it rarely works out:

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Aaaaand we’re back!

And not a ton has happened over the past week in the NBA! We have a few signings to cover, overall discourse to talk about (as always), and other rumorings, but not tons of movement on the NBA front this week.

So, like last week, I’m likely sticking to the Other News, Rumors, and Fun Facts section here. We’ll kick it off with what is the biggest development in basketball right now, and one that could actually impact players who were drafted this year! Let’s get into it…

Other News, Rumors, and Fun Facts

• Last week, a judge gave an injunction to athletes in the Class of 2022, allowing them an extra year of eligibility due to the new “5 in 5” rule for the NCAA. While I won’t go into the whole history here, this has major implications for lots of prospects. For example, Braden Smith — Purdue star, All-American two years in a row — could choose to return to college for another year instead of playing for the Pacers this year, despite being drafted. While he’s reportedly not considering it, here are some players who this affects who were in the draft:

  • Dillon Mitchell, drafted #40 overall by the Celtics, had a solid season for St. John’s via his athleticism and rebounding chops, and he’s eligible to return again (and likely make way more money than he would on his second-round contract).

  • Tyler Nickel out of Vanderbilt (the Knicks drafted him at #47) actually entered the portal in April, and is now reportedly considering doing so again. He’s a monstrous 40%+ shooter from deep (in back-to-back seasons!) and, like Mitchell, can make some serious bank.

  • Lajae Jones is the last one who actually got drafted, this time by the Warriors at #54 out of Florida State. He played a year of JUCO basketball, and a return to college would give him a chance to get his shooting numbers back up (32% this past year vs 38% from deep in the previous) and be a proper early second-rounder.

  • Other players who qualify but were undrafted: Darrion Williams (NC State, unsigned), Keyshawn Hall (Auburn, Miami Heat Summer League squad), Malik Reneau (Miami, with Orlando Magic on an Exhibit 10 deal), Donovan Atwell (Texas Tech, had an agreement with the Bulls as a UDFA), and Jaden Henley (GCU, signed a Summer League deal with the Pistons). In other words, college may be way more stacked this year (and provide some interesting second-rounders in next year’s draft class).

• Per Christian Clark of The Athletic, the Mavericks are actively engaged in trade scenarios for Klay Thompson, with the Heat being frequently mentioned. Klay had a rough year on defense last season but still shot over 38% from deep, so he still holds value as a catch-and-shoot wing. If he can be paired with Giannis — who would inevitably give him a lot of kickout looks from the lane — then you’ve got a solid fit. Yet, he’s also 36 years of age, so it’s worth wondering how much runway he has left.

• Jeremy Sochan, who technically was on both teams in the Finals after being traded from the Spurs to the Knicks mid-season, has signed with the Trail Blazers on a one-year deal. Sochan has been productive in the minutes he’s played (9.9 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.5 assists) but has sometimes had some focus issues, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can solve those in what is effectively a prove-it deal with Portland.

• The Mavs extended Naji Marshall this week, locking up the quietly underrated wing for 3 years and $52.2 million. Marshall is your classic Masai Ujiri player: 6’6” with a 7-foot wingspan, can rebound, can pass, is a solid finisher, and the only thing he really doesn’t do is shoot consistently. It’s great that the Mavs were able to keep the 28-year-old in his prime for a palatable price, though it’s worth wondering if he’s really on the same timeline as Cooper Flagg at this point.

• Big development tomorrow: Anthony Davis becomes extension-eligible. He could extend for four more years, $275 million with the Wizards, but do you really want to commit that kind of money to AD, given the injury history? Trae Young’s deal was big, but he’s generally available outside of some strange blips in the past year and a bit, but AD is a much riskier play. It has been surprising that the Wizards haven’t looked to deal him (as part of those Warriors rumors, especially), but maybe they like what they have in a Trae/AD/Dybantsa core.

• The Peyton Watson sweepstakes (if you can call it that) is still underway, and now Bleacher Report’s Jake Fischer says that it may drag out until September. On top of that, the Bucks and the Clippers have been the most involved teams, so the hold up is Watson’s agent, Rich Paul, being “willing to remain patient.”

• Cleveland officially has a WNBA team (again)! The WNBA announced one of its newest expansion franchises’ names this past week: The Cleveland Sirens. The team will begin play in 2028.

• NBA veteran Will Barton has officially returned to the NBA — except this time, in a coaching role. Barton is joining the Timberwolves’ staff in a player development role this season, but apparently he was an assistant coach for the Iowa Wolves last year, which went way under the radar for me. Barton never played for the Wolves, but he and president of basketball operations Tim Connelly go way back; Connelly traded for him from the Blazers back in 2015.

• Jrue Holiday has been garnering interest from opposing teams, but according to Jake Fischer (again!), the team isn’t biting, and they won’t be buying him out, either. Holiday is now in a weird situation with Damian Lillard, Scoot Henderson, and Ja Morant all at the guard slot, so I don’t know how he fits. Not to say I blame the Blazers for not dealing him, though, because that’s more of a Ja Morant problem than a Jrue one.

• Remember Trey Jemison? I forgot about the Knicks (apparently?) NBA Champion this year, but he’s signing with the Raptors on a two-way deal. Here are some Lakers highlights of him, I suppose:

• Speaking of guys you have to remember, remember Harry Giles?! Giles was drafted 20th overall by the Blazers in 2017 after being a #1 overall high school recruit, but then injuries kind of ruined his NBA career. He’s been a killer in China, though, and he’s returning to the CBA for a third season, this time with the Beijing Royal Fighters. I watched Giles in a scrimmage near Summer League in Vegas, where a bunch of overseas players were trying to get some looks for their next teams in front of CBA agents, and it’s likely that Giles is getting a nice deal over in China as a result.

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There’s a common story that tends to play out every season for at least one player. Said player has played really well over the past year, often usurping expectations. Their team ends up making the playoffs — sometimes surprisingly, other times not — and said player is expected to continue their great play. However, the player does not, and as a result, the entire offseason opinion of the player is that he was just a flash in the pan.

This is a ridiculous train of thought. It also feels like what’s happened to Jalen Duren.

Duren averaged 19.5 points per game and paired it with 10.5 rebounds, a feat that only these players have achieved since 2000:

Outside of John Collins, this is a list full of stars and superstars. That, in and of itself, should give a nice frame of reference for how good Duren has been at the young age of 22. Yet the Pistons and he seem to be at a standstill in restricted free agency because he wants a max contract, one that I would argue is justified by performance (though that’s a separate matter from the Pistons’ financial situation).

Today, I want to take a look at what has historically been the best strategy when signing free agents, and how it all goes back to this simple fact: Jalen Duren is likely worth the money.

Ahead of the (Age) Curve

There are two statistical ways to look at a player’s performance. The first, of course, is looking at their box score stats (points, rebounds, assists, etc.) and the other is to look at play-by-play data, using metrics derived from it such as xRAPM (real adjusted plus-minus).

Typically, players begin to fall off in both after they hit their 30s, though xRAPM gets wonky after 33 or 34 years of age due to a smaller sample size and selection bias (the better players tend to stick in the league longer and those can skew the data a bit). Regardless, this is what both curves look like for both xRAPM and average Game Score per season (John Hollinger’s calculation of a player’s performance in a game, which, while not perfect, is a good proxy).

Using this curve, we can effectively take a look at which players have performed above expectation historically. The best thing to be is a “double-positive,” which means you are quite literally above the curve in both xRAPM and average Game Score for your age in the same season. If you have 2 or more double-positives in your first 4 years in the NBA, the past 25 years tell us that you have a 63% chance of averaging a double-positive over your next 4. On the flip side, if you have zero early double-positives, you’re probably never going to be a star:

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I haven’t thought about the Warriors in a while. After all, they haven’t made any trades this offseason despite a failed quest for LeBron; Jimmy Butler is out till at least December; and Draymond Green is just podcasting and getting paid.

So, just for fun, I decided to take a look at their projected depth chart for next year.

Pro tip: Never look at the Warriors’ projected depth chart for next year.

This is a depth chart that may have been okay if it were 2017-18, Porzingis’ All-Star year, but even then, having Brandin Podziemski and Gui Santos as your starters at the 3 and the 4 isn’t exactly what I’d call a luxury.

With the above in mind, just how bad are Golden State’s chances for the 2026-27 season amidst a stacked Western Conference? And, once Jimmy returns in December, is there hope that this team can make a classic Heat-esque run via his efforts alongside Steph?

Olden State Warriors

The biggest problem for this team isn’t actually that Brandin Podziemski and Gui Santos are starters (though that’s a problem in and of itself). The bigger issue is that this team is old. If it weren’t for Santos and Podz, they’d be even older, but assuming you throw them in, this is still the 11th-oldest starting lineup of the past 10 years:

History does not bode well for a team of old starters. While over 40% of them (“them” being starting lineups with an average age of 31 or older) make the playoffs, it’s extremely unlikely for one to make it out of the first round:

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Aaaaaand we’re back!

Unfortunately, we are only partially back. It has been quite the past week for me after getting back from Nike Peach Jam — awesome event, if you ever get the chance to go! — after which I promptly got sick with both a fever and a terribly nagging cough. In other words, not fun!

Hence, today, we’re just going to stick to the “Other New…

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Victor Wembanyama is the best young player in the world. That’s easy to say and cannot be debated; the Frenchman is 22 years of age, has been an MVP candidate already, and is quite possibly the best individual defender of this generation (and, if he has anything to say about it, all generations).

However, one disadvantage of his greatness is that all “great young player” talking points seem to center around him and become generalized. In fact, the NBA has been on a downswing of trust in its young players compared to what could have been considered a Golden Era of youth at the beginning of this decade. Between 2019-20 and 2022-23, young players got more minutes leaguewide than ever before, yet the share of young players — defined as those 23 or younger — playing starter-level minutes has precipitously declined. That is, until this season:

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It took a while, but we finally have a decision — The Last Decision, if you will. LeBron James officially announced his move to the Philadelphia 76ers in what will be his last free agency move and his last chance at winning another championship.

There were other competitors who were presumed to have better LeBron-getting chances, such as the Heat and the Cavs, and yet neither ended up with one of the top two players in league history (and no, I won’t get into the GOAT debate here). Instead, it’s the Sixers, who by way of a surprising offseason trade, are now fully in the endgame of The Process that started over a decade ago to this point.

Today, I want to take a look at what LeBron’s Philly move means not only for Philly, but for the teams that ended up losing the race, and where it places everyone in the grand scheme of next season. Let’s start with Philly, who now holds the keys to being a true Eastern Conference threat, with some caveats…

The Daryl Morey Domino Effect and LePlaymaker

All I’ve really been thinking about when it comes to LeBron’s arrival in Philly is how this proves that, sometimes, you have to give a GM time to make moves in the offseason before jumping to conclusions.

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Aaaaaand we’re back!

And not only are we back, but we are now officially in the slowest part of the offseason. Summer League just finished up, leaving us with little-to-no NBA basketball until October 9th, the start of the preseason. Hence, we have quite…

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We’re back!

Last weekend, we took a look at the Summer League players who made the best first impressions, and now, with some extra time under our belt, we can get a clearer picture of who is truly having a “good” Summer League. As I always say, Summer League is not indicative of a player’s full career, but there are usually some things we can take away from it if you look at attributes the right way.

Let’s just get right back into it, starting with another classic Miami Heat pickup…

Tre Donaldson, A True Heater (?)

What do you even call a player who plans for the Heat? A Heat? A Heatle? (taken by LeBron’s era?) I’m going with a Heater for the sake of this one, because Tre Donaldson fits the bill.

Donaldson, who came to the Heat as an undrafted two-way contract out of the University of Miami, has done a lot of what he did in college and simply translated it to the league. He’s averaging around 16 PPG on 43% three-point shooting, and he’s adding 6.8 assists and 4.5 rebounds to his line. Donaldson isn’t super big at 6’3”, but he plays with heart and is a decent defender overall given his weightiness.

The reason Donaldson slipped to the Heat is the same reason that many great players have slipped to the Heat: Donaldson played all four years of college. As we know, most teams aren’t fond of older players, and it seems likely that Donaldson got a two-way promise from the Heat to stay in South Florida. And it’s paying off, because Donaldson is a dynamic talent that looks the part of a well-rounded combo guard, and he can play slightly out of position if necessary. It’s been a great Summer League for him, and we’ll see if the Heat can get another coup on the books via their talent evaluation.

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It’s a rare occasion: You’re getting some real, boots-on-the-ground reporting from me!

I’m currently camped out at Peach Jam, which is essentially the playoffs of Nike EYBL, where all of the best players in high school play to show off for NBA and college scouts. Because I’m getting the chance to actually watch these guys in-person, I figured this would be a good time to preview the ones who may make the league one day. Most of the below would qualify for the 2028 Draft, with one further out, but the depth on display here is pretty impressive, and there’s a real competition for the #1 recruit out of that 2027 group.

Without further ado, let’s start with the guy who is making himself a Peach Jam legend…

Cayden Daughtry, Small But Mighty

The best player at Peach Jam hasn’t been much of a question thus far: It’s Cayden Daughtry. The Florida Rebels guard — currently ranked #9 by ESPN — has been absolutely mauling the competition. Prior to Friday’s game, he was averaging a Peach Jam-leading 36.3 PPG on 61% shooting, pairing that with 6.7 AST and 4.7 REB. There is a very real chance that Daughtry clears the mark for the highest scoring average in Peach Jam history, which I don’t have a clear picture of yet but appears to hover around 25 PPG (Cooper Flagg, Trae Young, and more barely cleared that bar).

Daughtry is short for an NBA guard at 6’0”, but is an absolutely electric player on offense. Time after time, he comes up with the wildest, contorted shots due to his incredible body control, and he’s an elite passer who functions best when everything runs through him. In a way, that makes him similar to Trae Young, and the comp is there, though I would argue Trae does a better job of creating space for himself.

I love Daughtry as a player, and he could end up being the best player in college out of anyone. I’m worried about how the shorter stature limits his NBA upside, but if there’s anyone who can overcome it, it’s this kid. He has the clutch gene, makes his teammates way better, and, despite some questionable defensive decisions at times, is the most elite “go get a bucket” high school player in the nation right now.

Oh, and if you look close enough, you’ll see me in this video of the ridiculous three-pointer from Daughtry:

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