tl;dr:

2026 has been a good year for Thesis (TAU.V). Strong drill results, an impressive run in share price, AngloGold Ashanti buying in last winter, and project economics supercharged by this gold and silver run. And now, AngloGold have officially increased their position size to nearly 10%, courtesy of a $58 million offering recently completed wth Thesis. In terms of affirming conviction, it simply doesn’t get better than that. Thesis remains one of my top names and favourite picks for its quality of project and company ability and culture.

Look below for interview, summary, some editorialising, and a sneak preview of my time in camp here so far.

1. Interview

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Time Stamps

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01:00 Ewan’s Intro to the Deal
03:30 What changed so quickly for Anglo to buy in more?
05:40 Will Centerra be topping up alongside Anglo?
07:30 What part of the Thesis story is resonating with shareholders these days.
10:10 Government support: Talk or Action?
12:10 What is the significance of the substituted impact assessment process.
13:40 Investor questions – what’s happening with the Environmental Impact work?
15:15 Drill update (and when can we expect a news release)
21:20 Thoughts on the Market
25:50 Final Thoughts

2. Companion Article

Look, this update has sat done save for this companion article since this past weekend. But travelling up into northern BC to visit Lawyers-Ranch has cut into my writing time, leading to this delay. Hopefully that excuse is reasonable enough to warrant some forgiveness from you, dear reader.

But this news out of Thesis is one of those updates that seems like such a blindingly obvious indicator of continuing success here for both the company and its investors. Strategic investor AngloGold Ashanti has officially announced they’ve increased their stake in Thesis Gold & Silver, bumping its ownership from 5% to 9.7% thanks to a $58 million offering done at a blended average (including all flow through) at an average of about $4.10.

And just for the public record, that valuation (which yes includes flow-through premiums, but does anyone expect Anglo to use Thesis as a tax write off?) pegs Thesis at about a CAD$1.23B valuation.

Otherwise, CEO Ewan Webster provides me with a quick drill update. But, my being up here, it makes sense maybe for me to just give my own live, on-site, update (look for the proper video and photo essay by the end of September):

• Exploration drills are turning at Steve and Mandusa, with the Mandusa rig expecting to be bumped over to BV zone in short order here.

• Steve Zone, as Thesis has been updating the market on, has been very successful, and the rig is drilling at resource density.

• Geotechnical drilling and analysis at Lawyers is ongoing.

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• Ranch feels like the new center of gravity (where on my previous trip it was definitely the little brother satellite camp). New buildings, more people. Roughly 50 here and roughly 50 at Lawyers.

• This trip has only deepened my conviction in this play. The team is comprised of an excellent group of people and there is an impressive sense of comradery and camp culture here.

• And, lest we forget, the economics of this project are exceptional.

Site Photos

Take a look below at some quick shots of my time here so far:

Conclusion

I’m a believer in this company, and now more than ever. These are good people doing good work on a good project. And with jurisdictional stability increasingly important in a time of increasing geopolitical tension, and BC and the federal government working actively to improve their permitting bottlenecks, I feel like Thesis is in the exact right spot doing the exact right things to take advantage of these evolving priorities.

I was buying on its last trip down to around $3.00 and will be on the bid again if/when it retraces back to its 50 or 100 DMA.

Wrapping things up here, read the summary below for an overview of my conversation with Ewan. Otherwise, as I said, my hope is to get my site visit project out by end of month.

For a whole host of reasons, this one is a clear winner and ongoing favourite.

Thank you for reading my work.

-Matthew from JRI.

3. Written Summary

• Major news – Anglo Gold Ashanti has increased their position to 9.7%.

  • Increase from original 5% last February.

  • $58 million at blended average of about $4.10.

01:00 Ewan’s Intro to the Deal

• Obviously fantastic validation.

  • Relationship grew over the year.

What does that $58 million buy?

• With this cash they now have almost $120 million in the treasury.

  • Lots of runway/flexibility.

  • Were going to raise money anyway - Anglo will be excellent shareholders.

  • They’ve invested $100 million now into Thesis.

03:30 What changed so quickly for Anglo to buy in more?

• Increasing comfort levels for both sides as they saw how each other operated.

  • Fit together well in terms of vision and team.

Explanation of the financing pricing ($3.4118).

• Could have rounded down to be honest, but just the 5 day VWAP in the lead-up to the agreement.

  • Fair price for both parties.

05:40 Will Centerra be topping up alongside it with their Investor Rights Agreement

• Centerra has been a fantastic shareholder.

• Participated last February.

  • Chose not to participate this time.

• Ewan doesn’t read anything into it.

  • Different companies with different capital allocations.

  • Just nice to have multiple strategics.

• Still very involved - active on the technical committee, etc.

07:30 What part of the Thesis story is resonating with shareholders these days.

• It starts with the project itself. No pushback.

  • Long mine life. Great economics. Fantastic silver kicker.

• Core concern is around permitting in Canada and BC.

  • Feels like they’ve really turned a corner here now in regards to that.

  • Governments are pushing to get strategic infrastructure built.

• This project ticks all the boxes.

10:10 Government support: Talk or Action?

• Starting to see real action.

  • Scaling up to accommodate the push, both provincially and federally.

  • People is the main resource needed.

• Don’t want to cut corners or skip steps.

• Thesis works very closely with their partner nations in the region and they are able to avoid duplicate prior work.

  • For example – right now they’re working to submit their detailed project description.

    • Officially, the local First Nations are given the report to review after the company submits it to the government.

    • However, Thesis is building the report with the First Nations input in the first place.

    • Lets them include these nations in a meaningful way while also streamlining the process.

12:10 What is the significance behind your recent news release regarding the substituted impact assessment process.

• Basically, the federal government is saying two key things:

  • No major concerns about the project, don’t need to be directly involved.

    • Happy to defer to the province.

    • BC has a very strong permitting process historically, just slow, though that’s changing.

• The second thing – it really just cuts down on duplication.

  • Especially with regard to consulting the first nations – they only have so much bandwidth. Having both prov and fed material to review just slows the whole thing down.

13:40 Investor questions – what is happening right now with the Environmental Impact work?

• Previously mentioned detailed project description.

• After it is submitted and accepted, the next stage of the permitting process is the readiness decision.

  • That stage says “yes, this project is ready to begin the rest of the process”.

  • Expect that all to be done by end of year.

• In terms of data collection – there’s a lot of work happening in the field at the moment.

  • Water collection, land surveys, ethno-historical work.

• JRI reminds he will be up at Lawyers-Ranch here in a week or two.

15:15 Drill update (and when can we expect a news release)

• Not super exciting but all the geotechnical drilling required. Metallurgical, etc.

  • About 8-10,000m of drilling/two rigs in that.

  • Wrapping that up by end of September, keeps Thesis on track for Q4 2027.

• Exploration drilling – two rigs on that.

  • Both at Ranch.

    • One is currently at Steve Zone following up on the 38m of 3.6 g/t Au.

      • The volume of fluid required to produce that sort of result is impressive.

• Otherwise are searching for grade mostly currently.

  • Combination of brand new targets and follow-ups.

  • Multiple drill-ready targets.

• Currently drilling at BV zone;

• Will release holes in batches to help tell a fuller story.

• They will also be testing the porphyry environment, though as a small part of the program.

  • More value in chasing shallower, more high-confidence targets with significant meters.

  • Still, the porphyry is a significant part of the future potential.

• They just keep improving their data on the project.

• Highlight of site tours recently has been Ranch East.

21:20 Thoughts on the Market

• Higher conviction and more capital to deploy these days.

  • Still a bit of a roller coaster, though.

  • Felt like there was that excitement of a bull run earlier in the year – generalists entering the space etc.

• But the last few months that’s dried up again.

  • People still confident long term, but hesitant short term.

• But looks like the market is turning back around and upward once again for gold (and commodities).

  • Weak economy and rising inflation, qualitative easing/t-bill buy backs all factors.

  • Iran an unresolved tension.

25:50 Final Thoughts

• Anglo is great validation.

• Everything going well.

• FS on track for Q4 next year.

Disclaimer

The content found in the JuniorResourceInvesting podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. The information provided is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we are not responsible for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. We are not registered investment advisors. It is based on opinions, SEDAR+ filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and JuniorResourceInvesting offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on JuniorResourceInvesting or our videos. We may hold equity positions in some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. Similarly, we may have been compensated by the company we interviewed for this episode, which is also an obvious conflict of interest. I work hard to be independent, objective, and selective, but you should be critical of my work. JuniorResourceInvesting may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on JuniorResourceInvesting is to be used at your own risk. By following JuniorResourceInvesting, you agree to hold JuniorResourceInvesting, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred. Rights to all images remain with original owner.

tl;dr:

I am mid-transit en route Thesis Gold & Silver’s Lawyers-Ranch project. And indeed, the dog days of summer seem to be over early this year, with big news hitting from all over my portfolio (big results, big strategics) and gold looking ready to keep moving.

This one covers a wide range of topics, including a couple recent (potentially very) big wins I feel I get to/need to brag about.

Plus I provide updates on some other tickers for my paid subs, with multiple market-beating picks within there as well. Paid subs also get a sneak preview of an imminent new listing I will be covering.

$B; $CTGO; $TAU; $FDR; $AZS; $TOC; $COSA

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Company Updates

Index

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1. BCM Resources
2. Tocvan Resources
3. Contango Silver & Gold
4. Founders Metals
5. Allied Critical Metals
6. Arizona Gold & Silver
7. Cosa Resources

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1. BCM Resources (B.V)

They might have drilled the big one, announcing 594m of continuous mineralisation awaiting assays. This one keeps gaining serious interest.

I’ll lead with one that isn’t a client but I still want to (and get to!) crow about. BCM is one of the very first companies I ever wrote up on this Substack, back in the aftermath of their first big hole - The 2023 intercept in hole TK8 that came back with 155.4m averaging 0.66% Cu, 0.12 g/t Au, and 7.4 g/t Ag.

And as I reported earlier in the summer, they’re finally back, they’ve got their drilling method down, and they are going deep looking for giants, and that I had bought back in.

And now, they’ve recently announced a potentially wild intercept - a full 594m of mineralisation out of hole TK20. No assays yet, but they’re immeidately on to hole TK21, collared some 250m west of TK20, intended as an immediate follow-up target.

Some notes, such as they are:

• No grades, but speculation of 0.7%-0.8% CuEq as the basic hope based on visual description and online chatter (heavy cautionary asterisk here of course).

• That Eq includes a very heavy visual molybdenum component.

  • This could be a positive. If this is a typical copper porphyry as they had expected, comparatively high grade moly here means even higher grade copper elsewhere, meaning there is exciting potential for significant grade here.

• If this is a moly-dominant porphyry, it makes things a little more complicated, but I won’t speculate till we get assays and further analysis from BCM back.

• A second geophysical anomaly of similar size located SW of the first has been substantially derisked through this success and will be targeted soon.

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I missed out on a decent bull back all the way to $0.48. I bought a tranche before results, pushed another tranche in hard early after the initial report, and am waiting for TK20 visuals and/or 20 and 21 assays but if the results are encouraging, I will be buying in more, and potentially very aggressively.

If you missed out on Filo or other Vicuña porphyry giants, this looks like it could be a major discovery in the heart of one of the friendliest, easiest mining jurisdictions in the USA and indeed the world. And those don’t come around that often.

2. Tocvan Ventures (TOC.CN)

Discovery drill campaign bears significant fruit as Tocvan advances towards pilot production in an improving Mexican permitting atmosphere.

I’ve been sleeping on this ticker a bit, though I tapped them as a top 2026 pick. Since the winter frenzy Tocvan has receded back a bit, though they continue doing all the quiet, critical work to create future catalysts. A little bit of the calm before the storm here: Pilot plant well under, but still under, construction. New lands now advancing to drill-ready status but still in first-pass territory.

But things are starting to perk up, helped along by the rising tide of gold again. That’s what happens when you pull 215m of 0.56 g/t Au from just 36m down out of the ground (that’s a 120+ g-m/t hole) on one of these brand new targets. And the mineralisation is pretty continuous - even removing the 4 highest-grade intervals this hit still spits out 209m of 0.263 g/t Au. Well above the 0.1 g/t grade (or even lower) cut-offs found in the region.

And this now-high-interest El Mezquite trend looks to have decent size to explore in, with the trend some 1.2km long and there being 600m between this hole and the previous initial result of 22.9m of 0.6 g/t. In this part of the world, those are extremely interesting numbers.

In more macro news, positive Mexican permitting developments are giving the Mexican mining renewed interest. Further, Sheinbaum’s government since coming to power (first feared to be anti-mining) has cleared over 60% of a backlog of hundreds of SEMARNAT environmental permitting applications.

And all this with new CEO Christopher Gordon nicely settling into his role (as Brodie sidesteps into the executive chair). I sat down with Chris briefly last Vancouver conference season for a pint but haven’t sat down for an in-depth chat with him quite yet. When I chatted with Brodie he emphasised this was still the same team comprised of the same people, just with a shuffling of a priorities. I’ll make sure to reach out and get something arranged with Chris soon.

3. Contango Silver & Gold (CTGO.TO)

A steadily-growing war chest of projects and cash at a very low valuation compared to peers.

At this point, I have come to terms with the fact that the market is stuck in a bit of a “prove it” holding pattern with Contango, as buyers appear set to wait to see how Contango’s somewhat novel DSO model turns out over the coming years.

For my part, my conviction remains the same. CEO Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse is a sharp-minded industry veteran leading a sharp team advancing collectively a tier one portfolio of projects.

This is one where I will continue to be something of a contrarian and hold my position here as a high-conviction buy. In a sector of volatile sugar rushes and ensuing crashes this is a long-term hold to see the vision here be realised.

Valuations are low here not for failure to execute or jurisdictional risks (Contango excels at both) but simply because the market seems to want more pieces on the board before giving Contango its due. Fair enough. But as this excerpt lifted from a recent Canaccord daily update demonstrates, even when accounting only for Manh Choh’s production (and totally discounting the tripling of production anticipated over the next few years here) Contango could push +50% from here and still only achieve fair value compared to its peers. And you could argue fairly reasonably that Contango is indeed deserving of a jurisdictional premium on top of that too.

With tens of millions of dollars expected on an ongoing quarterly basis from its JV with Kinross, a growing roster of exceptional assets, continued exploration success, streamlined, risk-reduced, paths to production in tier one locations and jurisdictions, this remains an easy buy and hold for me. I don’t know when the worm will turn, but I remain as confident as ever that it will. The future is bright here.

4. Founders Metals (FDR.V)

100% ownership of all of Antino is finally in hand, along with a bundle of multiple separate exciting new discoveries.

Did any one else notice Founders back in and around (and past) previous all-time highs? Feel like this is sneaking back up on the market as people slowly wake up to what is going on down there.

• New, large, land package.

• An aggressive drill campaign of a size most juniors can only dream of.

• That new land is yielding multiple exciting, brand new, results (that the insatiable market has been clamouring for for a while now.

• 100% ownership of all of Antino is now fully in hand.

• Gold Fields has increased its stake now to 19.9%

I strongly believe this story still has multiples to go, and with far less attendant risk than the first half of this story. An easy pick from here for me.

5. Allied Critical Metals (ACM.CN)

Waiting for a strategic to be fully onboarded, Nasdaq listing officially applied for. Pilot plant construction and production updates looming.

Allied has been in a bit of a holding pattern recently. The onboarding of the strategic first announced last April has taken longer to get over the line than anticipated, though the update earlier in August, though vague in details, felt promising.

Of course there’s worst case scenario risk here that the strategic drops out for whatever reason. But if that happens I would likely be buying in on whatever mini-crash that sparks. As successful as this has been and as near to production as it seemingly is, it remains only at PEA stage and (note: pure speculation here) I know strategics don’t like uncertainty.

In the mean time, Allied keeps drilling and expanding future resources with successful drill results on new discoveries and targets.

And tungsten pricing is driving critical breaking points that are approaching soon. The reality is is that Europe desperately needs new supply to come online, and there just aren’t many options. Allied remains in the cat bird seat in this regard. If they execute on reasonable timelines they should comfortably be able beat any would-be competitors to market and capitalise fully on these wild prices.

6. Arizona Gold & Silver (AZS.V)

Two big bits of news for AZS: They 1. impressively landed a major Aussie strategic and 2. their drill at long last is excitingly pointed directly beneath their previous best-ever result.

I’ve got an interview with CEO Mike Stark I need to get out the door here, but in the mean time, Arizona is another story that is starting to get exciting again. With BLM updated disturbance approvals at least and excitingly in hand, Arizona is able to chase its high-grade results deeper and closer to their source.

The historic, neighbouring Oatman mine’s characteristic green and yellow quartz returned over an ounce per tonne back in its heyday. With increasing presence of those colours at depth here, what grades will AZS find? And they keep edging ever closer to the much-bandied-about (and deservedly so) boiling zone. There are very reasonable hopes for increasing length and grade here.

This one has legs and flies under the radar - not a lot of marketing, and some staggered delays in being able to get to the heart of things geologically. But results have a tendency to speak for themselves and this team looks like it’s got the goods. I’m excited for this drill campaign. And the rigs are turning aimed deeper than ever before as we speak.

And that’s not it for AZS. Rather, Evolution Mining has come on board, paying $12 million for a 9.9% strategic stake in AZS at an $0.80 valuation (and a three year half-warrant). Not that I expect AUD$30B market cap Evolution Mining to be ones to warrant clip.

With $30 million in the bank, a true tier one strategic in their pocket, and some pretty exciting high-confidence targets available for immediate follow-up, Arizona Gold & Silver has all the makings of a winner.

7. Cosa Resources (COSA.V)

Currently drilling on their pre-discovery Murphy Lake North JV (from Denison Mines) land. See my general uranium update in “Sector News” above.

Not much to report here. Cosa will play their communications straight up-to-and-including any potential discovery, so no tidbits or breadcrumbs to obsess over here.

So consider this a simple-yet-needful reminder that this company exists and that they are hungry, have excellent technical expertise and track records of discovery and are exploring on true tier one land.

You play discoveries how you choose but no matter how this needs to be on your watch list. Exceptional team and properties here I am happy to be along for the ride with.

I’ve got a few other picks and plays I’ve been watching and investing in, including a new pre-IPO name, I’ll let my paid subs read over below:

Conclusion

I’m writing this particular paragraph in the Air Canada lounge of the YVR waiting for my flight into Prince George to catch a charter up to the Sturdee airstrip in the Toodoggone region en route to Thesis Gold & Silver’s Lawyers-Ranch project where I will spend the next week interviewing Thesis workers and witnessing how much the project has grown these past couple years.

The project, the potential, the people - Thesis ticks all the boxes for me and very much remains one I believe will continue to march inexorably higher over time during this still-heating-up bull run. Indeed, I was buying once more on this dip back around and below $3.00. Thesis is as bulletproof as it gets in this sector in my view.

Needless to say, Thesis remains a key pick and core position in my portfolio.

And having AngloGold Ashanti increasingly buying into this play really can’t be understated in its importance. Indeed, it kind of tips the hand at what we can expect moving forward here.

Look for notes on my trip soon.

Otherwise, look, I just don’t think this gold (and, by extension, commodities) bull market is done yet. This past year I was right on gold. I was right on copper. I was right on tungsten. Still waiting on uranium to break through but it, too, feels like just a matter of time. Not trying to be a braggadocious weenie here, but track record matters in my game. So with a couple more big wins potentially developing courtesy of AZS.V and B.V and others this summer, you’ll forgive me if I do a little self-congratulating.

Otherwise, good luck, and thanks for reading. And may all your trades be well-timed.

-Matthew

Disclaimer



The content found in the JuniorResourceInvesting podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. The information provided is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we are not responsible for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. We are not registered investment advisors. It is based on opinions, SEDAR+ filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and JuniorResourceInvesting offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on JuniorResourceInvesting or our videos. We may hold equity positions in some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. Similarly, we may have been compensated by the company we interviewed for this episode, which is also an obvious conflict of interest. I work hard to be independent, objective, and selective, but you should be critical of my work. JuniorResourceInvesting may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on JuniorResourceInvesting is to be used at your own risk. By following JuniorResourceInvesting, you agree to hold JuniorResourceInvesting, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred. Rights to all images remain with original owner.

tl;dr:

Timing can be everything. And this certainly feels like good timing for Arizona Gold & Silver. With their deal with new tier one strategic, $25B Evolution Mining, freshly signed and in their pocket, AZS.V is at long last (and as we speak) chasing their high-grade epithermal system deeper at their Philadelphia project. With $30 million in cash, a burgeoning gold market, and the fall conference season upon us, there’s a chance for some macro froth just in time for high-grade discoveries here.

1. Interview

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Time Stamps

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01:00 Recap drill fresh drill results and their significance.
05:00 Based on visuals is your working exploration model confirmed?
08:00 How can you avoid further BLM delays the next round of permitting?
10:10 Evolution Mining discussion
14:00 What boxes does Philadelphia check for Evolution?
16:30 Final Thoughts and Timeline to Results

2. Companion Article

I’m going to keep this short and sweet to get this out for market close here. Arizona Gold & Silver are up to something big down there at their Philadelphia project in Arizona and if we aren’t at the point where it starts to get exciting we’re awfully close.

• $30 million in the bank (impressive).

• BLM approval for 16 new pads that will allow them to properly test their land for the first time ever.

• Evolution Mining ($25B market cap) on as a strategic.

• Drilling beneath their best ever results as we speak, chasing grade to depth.

Remember where AZS left off - hole 156 (their best yet) returned 9.04 g/t Au over 20.4m (65% true width). And now at long last they get to keep chasing this increasing grade deeper. And quite a bit deeper at that.

Here’s some cross-sections to help get you reacquainted:

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Look, signing a true tier one strategic is massive news and the dream for any junior explore co. And Arizona Gold & Silver pulled it off. Fill in the blanks of the significance on your own.

But with the drill turning and a host of new targets now waiting their turn, maybe we will find out what made Evolution a believer soon enough here.

Written summary of my interview with Mike below.

Thanks for reading.
Matthew

3. Written Summary

Important Recent News Review

• Critical drill program ongoing.

• Major strategic (Evolution Mining) signed.

• Other important updates as well

• BLM permits in hand for further Philadelphia drilling.

01:00 Recap drill fresh drill results and their significance.

• Current batch of results have been testing just above their best hole to-date.

  • In-fill while they waited for BLM permits.

  • Very encouraging. Highlighted by 20 meters (65% true width) of 4+ g/t material.

  • Great stockwork material.

• Did these holes while waiting for BLM permits.

  • They were actually only midway through them when they received the permit.

  • But made sure to complete the fan before bumping it over.

Where are you with pad 10 (targeting depth) drilling now then?

• Finished first hole (172).

• Had Evolution crew on site for it (planned visit)

• Everyone was pretty excited when they saw the core.

• Have to wait for assays, but visually some of the best core they’ve scene.

05:00 Based on visuals is your working exploration model confirmed?

• Definitely.

  • Putting the photos up on the website.

  • Microscope also confirms.

• Very similar to hole 156.

• But still have to wait for assays.

• Large overall trend.

• Where to next? Methodical or based on results?

  • Technical committee will decide that.

    • Evolution has agreed to form a technical committee.

• Having a $25B company helping you gives access to knowledge and expertise juniors don’t have.

08:00 How can you avoid further BLM delays the next round of permitting?

• They have roughly two and a half years of runway before they’ll need another BLM

  permit.

• Will need eventually another one.

  • They want to drill that eastern anomaly eventually.

• Can’t guarantee anything, but they’ve begun work already and anticipate the current government making it an easier process.

• That eastern anomaly to the east is fifteen times larger than what we’re currently drilling now.

  

  10:10 Evolution Mining Discussion

  Huge news.

• 9.9% owners at an 80 cent valuation (with three year half-warrants).

  • Completed when AZS was trading around 50 cents.

• $12 million isn’t a huge stake for them but is still huge news for you.

  

• How did this come to pass? Was there a Lex (Aussie) connection?

  • Conversation started last December, before Lex.

  • Evolution came to them early and got into the data room.

  • Seven months of negotiations

• Mike and AZS managed to negotiate them down a bit from their original demands.

• Didn’t want to start too big.

  • Wanted to make sure everyone likes the fit before a major position was made.

• Very happy with the relationship so far.

  • Everyone shares the same vision and it keeps getting bigger.

• They see district-scale potential here.

  • Believe AZS has the jewelry box of the region.

14:00 What boxes does Philadelphia check for Evolution?

• Moving into North America recently. Want exposure here.

• Reasons:

  • Scalability

  • Have everything they need to make a mine

    • Location and infrastructure.

      • Power, roads, water

    • 20 minutes from urban area.

    • Jurisdiction.

16:30 Final Thoughts and Timeline to Results

• 172 went to the lab on a rush.

  • Hoping to get it out before September shows (Beaver Creek)

• Excited to get to pad 14 as well.

  • Pad 10 will get down about 2800 feet.

  • Pad 14 will be able to get down about 3500.

• If they get success below 2000 feet he believes they’ll see a lot of new interest.

• $30 million in the bank

• Non-stop drilling

• Exciting times

Disclaimer

The content found in the JuniorResourceInvesting podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. The information provided is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we are not responsible for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. We are not registered investment advisors. It is based on opinions, SEDAR+ filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and JuniorResourceInvesting offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on JuniorResourceInvesting or our videos. We may hold equity positions in some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. Similarly, we may have been compensated by the company we interviewed for this episode, which is also an obvious conflict of interest. I work hard to be independent, objective, and selective, but you should be critical of my work. JuniorResourceInvesting may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on JuniorResourceInvesting is to be used at your own risk. By following JuniorResourceInvesting, you agree to hold JuniorResourceInvesting, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred. Rights to all images remain with original owner.

tl;dr:

Another CEO update interview with Founders CEO Colin Padget. Founders continues to steadily advance virtually its entire 1,000 square km land package at a pace most companies in this sector could only dream of. As various new high-grade anomalies seem now to be on the verge of discovery, critical mass is near at Founders. Also within is a peer comparison timeline showcasing how quickly gold mines can enter into production in this part of the world.

1. Interview

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Time Stamps

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00:45 Colin’s Update for FDR
02:45 May 19th Corporate Update
05:45 Timing of Future Resource
08:15 Universal Drill Update
11:00 Investor Questions
17:00 Highlight areas of the expanded land package you’re excited by
22:10 How they’re using comprehensive grid augur grid surveys to their advantage
29:45 Final Thoughts

2. Companion Article

It feels like the market is rediscovering Founders Metals in the wake of the initial results from their expanded land package. Indeed, Founders has put out a string of impressive drill results the past few months:

• Antino West with 58.5m of 1.00 g/t Au from surface.

• 30m of 4.64 g/t Au from auger sampling at Maria Geralda.

• 12.95 g/t Au over 6m at Lower Antino.

• New discoveries at Antino North and Antino West

And it’s the location and nature of these results - these are multiple sincere, significant discoveries with good grade and length near (or even from) surface in very separate, never-before-drilled, areas. That’s significant. And that’s in addition to the successful ongoing expansion at both Upper Antino and Lower Antino.

And I am actually burying the lede a bit here with drill results. That’s because just a few days ago (though after recording), Founders gave me a little birthday gift, releasing on August 6 a spectacular downdip extension at Upper Antino producing some 28.0m of 14.27 g/t Au. People had been asking for grade at depth for a while from Founders. Well, now they’ve got it.

And while you gotta be good for luck to matter, it’s still undeniably good to be lucky, and for Founders the timing of this recent rush of drill results couldn’t have been better. That’s because, just in time for these results, gold (and gold cos) for the past few weeks have been catching a sustained bid for the first time since the big run to end last winter. And Founders has responded in kind, up 25% or more the past few weeks.

So it felt like a good moment to sit down with Colin. Founders has had to grow rapidly to match the rapid growth of their land and discoveries. And even as the market took a breather and waited for Founders to give it a reason to get excited again, I stayed pretty adamant that was a matter of “when” not “if”. And with the burst of price and volume here (not to mention the exceptional results fueling it), it certainly feels like the next leg may be upon us here.

And yes, my being bullish gold is part of that, but all that vast, untamed, potential that Antino clearly had is now being slowly (actually pretty fast thanks to Founders’ aggressive exploration budgets) mastered and brought to bear. And as it turns out (to the surprise of no one who has been following this story) the emerging results look like they’re going to be exceptional.

Among other topics, Colin and I discuss:

• Drill results at the various targets, with Colin doing a blow-by-blow discussion of each.

  • The Antino North anomalies (biggest and highest grade found to date) excites him.

  • 120,000 meters have been drilled thus far.

  • 80,000 at UA and 20,000 at LA.

  • 70,000m minimum this year will add to that substantially.

• New exploration techniques (like Maria Geralda’s deep auger grid sampling).

  • Has helped them master structure and orientation.

• The recent corporate ownership update.

  • Declined the additional 5% but 100% remains their goal.

• Peer comparisons for production timelines (see infograph below).

  • Very quick turnarounds.

  • Less than 5 years from PEA to production for Oko West.

• A series of investor questions.

  • The impact and growth of their strategic partnerships.

  • The impact of iran on fuel (not much).

The above infographic is telling, no? Even pre-resource and pre-PEA, Founders is only five or so years from production if they were to follow Oko West’s trajectory. That level of rapidity can’t be underestimated. This is a huge tier one project in a stable region known for short timelines. No wonder majors like Goldfields want a piece of it.

Look, Founders will remain a key pick for me for as long as it exists unless something drastic changes. They have the land, the people, the support, the market cap, the cash, and the jurisdiction for this to be a major success. Hard not to get excited about this one as discovery drill results keep pouring in.

Interview summary below.

Thanks for reading,

Matthew from JRI

Leave a comment

3. Written Summary

• 5 Rig, 70,000m Drill Campaign

  • Lots of results coming in recently.

• Will feature investor grab bag of question.

00:45 Colin’s Update for FDR

• Lots going on the last few months.

  • Lots of exploration.

  • But also other big news – company JV update.

  • Increased land package from 200 square km to 1000 square km.

• Systematic, universal advancement – soil work, etc.

• Lot’s to be excited about.

02:45 May 19^th Corporate Update

• Transition from Earn-in Period to full JV.

  • Declined topping up to 75%.

• Is this because to do so would require a FS within two years?

  • No, though that is true they won’t get to FS within two years.

  • Declining it allowed them to advance to the JV stage.

• What should investors take away from that news?

  • Don’t over interpret.

  • Short news releases are typically just meeting legal reporting requirements.

  • Not much else he can say at this point, but 100% ownership remains the goal.

05:45 Timing of Future Resource

• Companies have to consider where they are and where the market is when approaching an initial resource.

• Their drill budget reflects that they’ve transitioned at least partly to building a resource.

  • In-fill and step-out meterage increasing even as they keep aggressively exploring and drilling out their new (and old) lands.

• There is merit to the idea of interim/updating resources.

  • Not allergic to the idea, and have come around to the idea.

  • Still work to do though.

08:15 Universal Drill Update

• How many meters have you drilled on the property now?

  • About 120,000 meters, now.

    • Roughly 2/3 at Upper Antino.

    • About 20,000 meters at Lower Antino.

How quickly can projects advance in Suriname?

• It does matter a little who is doing the developing.

• Fair to compare to Guyana.

  • Take a look at G Mining’s timelines as a comp.

• FDR is ahead of the curve in a lot of important ways.

  • Already completed a two year environmental baseline study.

• Quick timelines in Suriname, though.

11:00 Investor Questions

• Has Iran war impacted diesel price/availability?

  • Diesel, aviation fuel have definitely increased in price.

  • But no shortages at all.

  • No slowdown or cessation of work at all.

  • The things that have gone up in price are very small line items in terms of overall expenses.

• How are your strategic partners involved?

  • Easy example – Goldfield’s lead geophysicist helped immensely with their airborne surveys.

  • Helping from day 1 – interpreting data, identifying lines that need to get reflown etc.

  • A company that size has access to knowledge that even Founders doesn’t have on staff.

  • Ongoing mentoring as well for Founders team.

• How has the relationship evolved over time?

  • Evolved quite a lot.

  • When B2 came in, they came in with a great technical team.

  • Getting them in helped validate things.

    • Especially the infrastructure question in Suriname.

    • The market piece as well – these are strong, validating names to buy in.

  • Then with the Goldfields team, that’s only been further underscored.

    • Goldfields is a true major.

      • $50 million from Goldfields is a large-scale investment.

      • That takes a lot of due diligence. Again, validating.

  • It’s like any relationship, though – you get to know people and it develops.

17:00 Highlight areas of the expanded land package you’re excited by.

Antino North

• There’s a 2.1 km trend of three different structures.

  • All three share a lithological boundary with the volcanic intrusive that is a key feature in many other parts of the property/orogenic gold systems in general.

  • They’re already doing follow-up drilling in the middle shear and are hopefully.

  • Already found a 22m wide zone in the bottom structure.

• So there’s already demonstrated scale and grade there.

  • There’s just a lot more work to do to prove it up.

  • They’re about 3800 meters into it.

    • There’s some pending assays from there.

Antino North East

• They started targeting a 5,000m program there.

• Still lots of targets beyond that to test at both AN and ANE.

• Antino NE has the single largest auger anomaly of anywhere on the property.

• The augur work they’ve been doing all over their property is showing a lot of anomalies.

  • Combining that with the fact they know they’ve got the needed structure present makes them very optimistic.

• They want to keep targeting from surface, oxide, low-strip material.

  • They’ve got quite a few of those targets now.

  • They’re lower-grade, but so cheap they’re very powerful.

• In terms of scale – not talking resources, but just demonstrating hypothetical scale:

  • 1km strike, 50m wide shear zone, 200m deep – that’s about 1 million ounces at 1 g/t.

• There really is an opportunity for things to get much bigger here.

  • The key is consistency.

Antino West

• Lots of people are excited for it.

• About 1km away from UA.

• To find 53 meters of 1.2 g/t from surface so early on is a phenomenal results.

• All ounces they can find are valuable, but making another discovery that close to Upper Antino can feed very quickly and positively into the economics of any future study.

22:10 Maria Geralda Auger Survey – How they’re using comprehensive grid augur grid surveys to their advantage.

• First pass – big regional grid, lines are 400m apart and sampling every 50m.

  • Fairly coarse grid. Looking for big areas.

  • If they have positive samples over 3 or 4 samples that becomes anomalous and worthy of follow-up work.

• First pass geochemical data on top of geophysics.

  • Then you build an exploration plan for that area from there.

• Augur sampling at Maria Geralda is a different story.

  • 30m deep augurs in a 3mX3m grid.

  • These build a data set that really helps them understand the geometry o the mineralisation here and how it is plunging, oriented, etc.

• They found long, consistent high grade right away at MG

  • You don’t get that without some scale.

  • They had followed up at MG with the drill but didn’t achieve similar results.

  • But Colin/the team couldn’t let it go so they decided to return to it more systematically.

    • Hence the tight, deep auger grid.

• Idea was to figure it out or write it off for good.

• With the augur grid they hit lots of mineralisation.

  • Some holes mineralised basically top to bottom. (30m of 4.5 g/t)

• Now have a strong understanding of it as it exists in the oxides.

• Highly structurally controlled.

• Somewhat of a lensoid shape to it.

  • Common with orogenic gold.

• Now they can go back with a diamond drill and place it with more confidence to test that orientation.

  • Can now test to see how deep it extends.

• Have you done this augur grid before, plans on doing it again?

  • Not something you’d do everywhere.

  • Way, way more density than is needed for a resource.

  • But will be used strategically at targets that have demonstrated grade similarly to MG.

    • Will be used at Van Gogh – similar orientation question to the SE of MG

• Founders market cap enables it to explore aggesssivley without being destructive to shareholders.

29:45 Any other targets come to mind for you as a priority

• Colin is still intrigued by Van Gogh

• Also is very excited by Antino NE – it’s huge.

  • They still haven’t found the edges of the anomaly in their sampling yet.

• Very excited by how things are advancing throughout the property.

  • The key take away is that everything is growing.

• Upper Antino they’ve drilled a lot and it is still growing.

  • Will be adding substantial depth soon.

  • Beginning work on resource meters.

• Expansion work in multiple places on the property.

• Heading into the dry season now so will see a ramp up in meterage.

Disclaimer

The content found in the JuniorResourceInvesting podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. The information provided is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we are not responsible for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. We are not registered investment advisors. It is based on opinions, SEDAR+ filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and JuniorResourceInvesting offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on JuniorResourceInvesting or our videos. We may hold equity positions in some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. Similarly, we may have been compensated by the company we interviewed for this episode, which is also an obvious conflict of interest. I work hard to be independent, objective, and selective, but you should be critical of my work. JuniorResourceInvesting may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on JuniorResourceInvesting is to be used at your own risk. By following JuniorResourceInvesting, you agree to hold JuniorResourceInvesting, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred. Rights to all images remain with original owner.

tl;dr:

A summer news update from Tocvan Ventures ($toc.cn). The headline for this conversation is the recent deal announced with Colibri Resources to secure 100% ownership over the Main Zone at their Gran Pilar project. Now unencumbered , Tocvan can now explore and advance Gran Pilar at the pace and direction of their choosing.

Updates on drilling and the pilot plant are also covered.

Other key news, that being a reshuffling of responsibilities in Tocvan’s C-Suite, was announced after recording.

1. Interview

Time Stamps

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01:40 Brodie’s Thoughts on Colibri Deal.
02:45 When did talks begin?
04:45 Was it a disincentive to work on the Main Zone knowing further success could raise the price?
07:25 Will we now see concrete timelines for a resource, etc. soon?
11:25 Drill Update
15:45 Is it fair to say you need to find more grade and length before it becomes truly interesting for a future resource?
20:45 Final Thoughts

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2. Companion Article

Tocvan Ventures keeps putting pieces together at its Gran Pilar project in Sonora, Mexico. While investors await the transition in their early stage exploration from “technical success” to more exciting results, Tocvan cleaned up an important bit of housekeeping recently.

Namely, Tocvan has finally secured 100% ownership of its Main Zone, the current center of gravity of Gran Pilar. This was done by securing an all-cash deal with 49% owner Colibri Resources (CBI.V) a few weeks ago.

This news likely would have received more love had it been announced in a more bullish market, as this certainly clears a major hurdle out of Tocvan’s way. So long as Colibri maintained ownership over that 49%, Tocvan was disincentivized to advance the core of its land package any further, as doing so would only increase the cost of this inevitable deal.

And so while Tocvan will still need other positive news, such as true exploration success, pilot plant production, further M&A, or something else, to drive a proper rerating, this deal unlocks all those other possibilities fully.

Otherwise, Brodie gives me an update on exploration and pilot plant efforts in this discussion:

• Pilot plant and leach pad is fully under construction and due for first pour by Q4.

  • See planned phases below.

• 9600m have been drilled, 3300m reported.

• Two new zones have been discovered so far.

  • Grade and length are modest so far, but match what they see in the peripheries of their core discoveries.

Leave a comment

One bit of news that didn’t get covered as it was announced shortly before my interview with Brodie - Tocvan has done some corporate reshuffling, with Brodie transitioning from CEO to Executive Chair while Christopher Gordon moves from Head of Corp Dev to the CEO chair. Brodie has since expressed this was a natural evolution for Tocvan, and that the core people remain the same and committed.

Conclusion

Tocvan has had a quiet-but-impactful 2026 thus far.

On the exploration front, they’re still getting their teeth into the rest of the land package. And I am fully prepared to accept the modest first-pass drill results so far are indeed positives in the long, reiterative process that is exploration and discovery, but they’re still not enough to catch anyone’s attention. Necessary, but not the end goal.

As for the pilot plant, itself a proof of concept meant to demonstrate potential greater value, it is in the squishy middle of the construction phase. It will still be some 6 months or so before we get to see any production numbers that might start to garner some positive attention.

Even the Colibri deal, one I believe is very positive, is still a relatively unassuming headline that serves more to set up the effectiveness of future catalysts, rather than be the key catalyst itself.

So all this together has the feel of the calm before the storm for Tocvan, the laying of a foundation on which to build bigger and better things. Heap leach in Sonora is basically as cheap as it gets. If Tocvan can wrestle another Main Zone-equivalent out of their larger land package, that should be enough to build out economic studies with some pretty compelling numbers and garner legitimate M&A interest from regional bigger players.

And while Tocvan isn’t there yet, the path to there feels reasonable and realistic.

Thanks for reading.

-Matthew from JRI

3. Written Summary

• M&A News

  • Colibri Deal Overview

    • 100% ownership secured for Pilar main zone.

    • Cost of $3.6 million, all cash.

    • 1% NSR with buyback.

01:40 Brodie’s Thoughts on Colibri Deal.

• Big news for us.

  • Let’s them keep pushing forward on their timeline.

• Something they’ve always wanted to finish off.

  • Solves the question of how Colibri fits long-term.

02:45 When did talks begin?

• The market was really strong over last fall and winter.

  • They made a big raise in February that left them cashed up.

• They realised after the raise they were in a position to make the deal.

  • Hadn’t considered it a possibility before.

• They ended up using a third party to come up with a valuation that ended up getting the deal a deal across the line.

04:45 Was it a disincentive to work on the Main Zone knowing further success could raise the price?

• They were at a spot they didn’t want to spend more money on it.

• It also hampered any potential JVs with other companies.

• They were confident in what was at Main Zone and wanted to look elsewhere.

  • Are glad they now can go back and build a resource there now.

• No more complications.

  • Can now do what they want, when they want.

07:25 Will we now see concrete timelines for a resource, etc. soon?

• Yes. They’ll keep moving down that path.

• Market conditions had also dictated what they could do in the past.

  • Feels like the pieces are all coming together at the right time.

• A big part of that is the community agreement they’ve signed.

• The pilot plant will provide data for any future work.

  • It is well under construction now.

  • Believe it will be ready by the fall.

• They will go back and fill in where they need to in and around the Main Zone.

• There are companies in the area showing the clear potential.

11:25 Drill Update

• 9600 meters so far.

  • 3300 reported

• Discovered two new zones so far.

  • One only 900m from the pilot facility.

  • Had good results but had to stop drilling.

    • Hit old mine workings and voids.

• One trend has 1+ km of mineralisation to explore.

• Southern block has had a soil grid sample completed.

  • Uncovering new targets through that.

  • Those teams are now working their way through the northern block.

• Magnetics suggest a continuation from south to north.

15:45 Is it fair to say you need to find more grade and length before it becomes truly interesting for a future resource?

• Yes. It takes time and meters.

  • Can’t expect massive hits out of brand new targets

  • You can drill 20,000 meters before starting to figure something out.

• Again, in that 3,000 meters they have two new zones.

  • Keep hitting smoke, just need to find the fire.

• Know from the main zone that hitting those smaller intervals often means you’re close to what you’re really after.

• Remain confident they can add material ounces still.

• (Alamo’s neighbouring) Mulatos mine started with something similar to the Main Zone before expanding it with 300,000m of drilling.

• The pilot mine is fully permitted.

  • They can utilise that as they keep advancing the project.

• Remain excited about what they’re building here.

20:45 Final Thoughts

• Believes the market is going to change positively again.

  • Nothing has changed in the macro for gold aside from the price retreating.

• They’ll just keep executing.

• Adding to their team – special advisors, board members.

• Stay tuned for more results and pilot plant updates.

Disclaimer

The content found in the JuniorResourceInvesting podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. The information provided is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we are not responsible for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. We are not registered investment advisors. It is based on opinions, SEDAR+ filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and JuniorResourceInvesting offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on JuniorResourceInvesting or our videos. We may hold equity positions in some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. Similarly, we may have been compensated by the company we interviewed for this episode, which is also an obvious conflict of interest. I work hard to be independent, objective, and selective, but you should be critical of my work. JuniorResourceInvesting may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on JuniorResourceInvesting is to be used at your own risk. By following JuniorResourceInvesting, you agree to hold JuniorResourceInvesting, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred. Rights to all images remain with original owner.

Sector News & Views

Index

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1. Gold

2. Copper

3. Dusters

4. Iran

Conclusion

5. New Pick*

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1. Gold

There’s some grim humour to gold managing to feel disappointing while trading above $4000/ounce that I feel really captures something of the essence of the metals and mining sector.

Despite the massive run, the sector still feels overlooked and even beaten down again, having come off 30% or more from its peaks last winter.

But if the bottom isn’t here, it must be close. My thoughts on why are fairly simple:

Idea #1: The Chart

• The 100 day moving average (see chart below) has been very strong support for gold for a while now and it is just a few trading days away. And if it fails to hold? Well,

• Another 10% or 20% correction over the next few months gets gold to its 200 DMA which has been a strong-but-rarely-touched support zone for over 5 years now.

Idea #2: Central Bank Activity

• As per the graph below, central banks never really stopped buying gold, even when above $5000, though month-over-month central bank purchases did increase nearly 70% as gold retreated back closer to $4000 in May.

• The key difference, rather, comes in the selling as central banks certainly took advantage of the $5000+ prices to aggressively sell into as the below graph demonstrates. But as spot price retreated, central bank selling disappeared as their buying increased. And China especially just keeps plugging away.

• That $4000 price point, if you follow my company work, was also what CTGO CEO Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse had IDed as something of a magic number for central banks in his own workings as well. And it certainly has been a strong indicator this year. As always, it’s wise to follow the smart money if you can afford to stay patient.

Idea #3: Unresolved Tensions Driving Gold

And all the reasons for gold to gain prominence - unchecked growth of personal and public debt, aggressive money printing, concerns over USD prominence, increasing geopolitical tensions on any number of fronts, etc etc.? None of them have gone away or been positively resolved. I am seriously concerned over where and how this all ends so I own gold. The end.

So yeah, I could still see a flash crash at or below the 200 MA. And I know trends and processes can take a lot longer to work through than humans often think. But I still fail to see how gold is anything but very bullish over the medium-to-long term.

2. Copper

After Comex copper had its little flash crash last summer as trump tariffs got TACOed to re-align with the LSE pricing, it’s been really nowhere to go but up for copper, running some 40% in the single year since.

I get to give myself a little credit as in the aftermath of that summer 2025 crash, I attended the September MIF in Vancouver and a key takeaway from that time was my bullishness for copper.

And things keep getting tighter here. Top copper producer Codelco continues to struggle to ramp up production to meet its forecasts, admitting they won’t meet long-term guidance, while Chilean production in general was significantly impacted (over the short term) due to significant winter storms causing many active copper mines to cease production for a few days or longer the past few weeks (now largely resumed).

Meanwhile, analysts continue to forecast structural copper deficits meaning that while we may be in a short-term exuberant peak here, it is also true that, similar to gold, I remain confident there is a sustained run still left here to operate within.

One of my recent key picks - Amerigo Resources ($ARG.TO) - leads copper for me with confidence still. Not a client. Just a smart company that I bet will be doing another performance bonus dividend at some point here as they keep making money hand over fist at these prices with minimal risk.

My New Pick* below in #5 is also a copper-led polymet near-term producer.

3. Dusters

I’ve talked up BCM Resources a couple times the past few months and the drill results I was eagerly anticipating came back unsatisfying.

A couple vertical holes hoping to extend the skarn mineralsiation to rhe southwest came back with only modest success, as they either missed the system or it was smaller than they anticipated in that direction. In one case, they encountered rocks significantly shallower than expected.

Two key thoughts from me. Well three:

1. Ouch. Oh well. This is the game. Why it’s important to scale into positions, and, likely, almost always just wait for the results, even if it means sometimes paying for the privilege. Still, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and neither is any discovery. I mis-timed the call for now but am still not worried.

2. They’ve now switched further north and are drilling directly into the heart of the interpreted skarn system. Reasonable, but also no doubt hoping to ensure some success to raise funds for the next campaign. on the back of. So, so long as the market isn’t too busted (and BCM is right) there’s chance for some love here yet.

3. There are geological complexities at play here and we will just have to let CEO and acclaimed porphyry geologist Sergei Diakov and the rest of his team do their thing from here. You buy the team first and foremost at this end of the pool, no?

However

BCM also recently announced they’re officially moving to semi-annual financial reporting. Which is frustrating as an investor and sector participant as it just makes it harder to follow companies while providing cover for shenanigans.

But still, BCM plays their game quietly. They’ve seen some uptick in in-house media work, but otherwise, non-exploration expenses are very low here. No marketing blitzes, no big executive corporate expense account. No wild salaries.

So while I may grumble a bit, this may actually be a sincere case of a company adopting this purely for the cost savings. Take a look at their last quarterly financials below. Not a lot of fat to trim here:

I still hold my ticket in the red here. If it gets all the way back to 10 cents I may average down but am otherwise content to sit on what I have.

4. Iran

Look, I don’t want to belabour this, but I want to reemphasize what I said last March: This isn’t going anywhere soon and the longer and bigger this gets the deeper and longer-lasting will be the consequences.

Trump has effectively placed himself in the unenviable position of having to choose between retreating and escalating, neither of which has base has any appetite for, and no matter how long he goes without doing so, he has to make that choice eventually.

With mid-terms creating a pinch point just a few months away in time, this is only growing in pressure.

This scenario still has me tempted to move to 20% cash or so (I have not as of yet) and I remain convinced some sort of sustained o+g price pinch on your average citizen is baked into the pie at this point. I watch and wait with everyone else.

Company-wise: Tenaz (TNZ.TO) has rebounded nicely from its lows (though still off its highs) and remains a high-confidence/my only o+g pick.

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Conclusion

(Note: The #5 section I will leave as walled for my paying subs for a few days before unlocking it. You can find it below the conclusion.)

Summer remains in full swing here. I’ve got a couple interviews due to get out yet, and still booked, but I’ll be absent for much of August. I’ve got a couple of young boys that need some time at the beach and in the forest to help them grow.

Till next time.

Matthew

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tl;dr:

It had been a while since I chatted with Allied Critical Metals (ACM.CN) CEO Roy Bonnell, so I remedied that with a recent sit-down. Roy and I discussed the new Venise discovery, the recent strategic financing, production plans, and more. Tungsten remains a critical metal very much in play. A fresh batch of infographics below as well.

1. Interview

Time Stamps

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01:00 New Venise Discovery at Borralha
04:30 How does Venise anomaly compare to St. Helena?
07:30 NPV Discussion and Price Floor
09:30 Two different mineralisations – wolf and moly.
12:45 Are there concerns due to the proximity to the village of Borralha itself?
14:45 Strategic Investments and Offtakes
18:30 Has there been a delay in the close of the deal?
21:00 20,000 meter drill update.
24:15 Pilot Production still slated for Q4?
27:00 Final Thoughts

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2. Companion Article

Allied has managed a 5 bagger or so since I first tapped it to readers last fall. And while I’ve secured gains on it, I’m still in big on this wagon, as I believe it still has high-confidence multiples from here in potential.

I know it can be a spooky feeling chasing plays that have already run. And tungsten (and Allied) has certainly already run hard the past year or so, with APT pricing soaring a full 10x, all the way to US$3200+/mtu or even more this past spring.

And yes, tungsten remains a small, opaque, corner of the sector, and comparatively difficult for retail investors to keep up on.

But Allied remains a key pick for me. Why? Well, because:

The structural demand that is driving this rapid rerating of tungsten hasn’t been resolved in either the short or long-term yet.

Tungsten has significant, structural, western supply gaps that have been driven into crisis mode by the recently-installed Chinese export restrictions and it has yet to be resolved. This isn’t to say prices are going to stay at all-time highs forever. But nor do they need to for projects like Allied’s Borallha to be very enticing indeed.

And even with a pullback, there will almost certainly be significantly higher tungsten pricing than historically established ranges for the foreseeable future.

The west touched a hot stove here with their realization of what is at stake geopolitically with access (or not) to (I say so grimly: military) critical metals and are sharply reacting. And the problem isn’t fully solved just yet. Consider analyst discussions with some reading below::

1. BMO forecasts a 2026 tungsten deficit and only modest relief in coming years.

2. One analyst projects a 12% increase in demand this year for tungsten.

3. Fastmarkets: Global tungsten markets have officially decoupled.

There is a common thread - industry analysts see supply deficits lasting years as the west does not yet have a clear line of sight to sufficient onshored production to meet present or future demand. Advantage Allied.

On Pricing

What sort of commodity trades for a decade or more within a consistent band before surging on a 10x to all-time highs and stays there for what is now 4+ months? One where something structural is shifting.

Take a look for yourself at recently tungsten Rotterdam 88.5% APT quotes from multiple sources, which is the unofficial spot price for ACM (whose concentrate will receive ~80% of said price):

As you can see for yourself above, European (Rotterdam APT) tungsten prices have importantly held at and around multi-decade highs of $3000+/mt for the past 4+ months now. That sort of stickiness of such an unprecedentedly-high price point suggests that this was no panicked overreaction that required a sharp correction (why hello, silver). No, this feels much more the market adjusting to a new pricing reality.1 And industry analysts feel the same.

Valuation Infographics

So what does this mean for Allied and other tungsten plays? To put it simply - very good news.

To do the heavy lifting for me, I’ve built two separate infographics:

1. Tungsten Peer Companion Update

The first is an update of an earlier piece I made last fall where I compare Allied with a few of its peers in the tungsten space meant as a quick and easy primer to them all.

Comparing production outputs and valuations between the various names paints a clear and compelling picture of Allied’s potential if they can indeed get multiple commercial plants (their PEA guides for 1700 tpy of APT con production) built in the next couple years.

From these numbers, Allied is not out of alignment with its current valuations at all. Rather, based on the two current producers and their market caps (multiple billions), if Allied can continue to advance towards production and take advantage of these high prices they have a clear path to several multiples yet from here just to achieve peer valuations.

Wheras the above infographic is to help situate Allied within its sector, the data below is meant to indicate the value proposition of Allied itself.

2. ACM NPV Sensitivity to APT Pricing

This chart utlilises the Borallha PEA to try to rough-sketch the various valuation scenarios based on production output and APT pricing.

As a quick example, at current prices, the ~1700t of tungsten concentrate ACM’s Borralha PEA outlines sports an after-tax NPV8 of some US$1.4B (compared to Allied’s current $260 million market cap. You can see why people are still excited here.

Please note there are provisos to these numbers. They’re extrapolations meant to present potential scale of opportunities and do not account for many important variables and factors.

But with that being said, the numbers here are quite compelling.

See below:

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Conclusion

So, to recap:

1. Tungsten prices are likely to stay elevated for the next few years at least
2. Western demand is growing aggressively.
3. Current supply deficits aren’t projected to be resolved over the next few years,
4. Producing peers sport 1+ billion valuations.
5. The NPV of Borallha is very leveraged to price.
6. Allied hopes to be producing tungsten con by EOY.

Look, mine building aint easy. There is risk in execution. Cost and time overruns can quickly erode a project’s economics. But Roy and his team believe in their plan. The plant needed is simple, straight-forward, and cheap. If they’re right and they can begin even fledgling pilot production close to on budget and on time, I believe Allied stands an exceptional chance to return multiples from here yet.

Written summary below.

Thanks.

Matthew.

3. Written Summary

JRI Overview

• Ongoing 20,000m drill campaign.

  • New discovery - Venise.

• Strategic investment- big news.

• Advancing to EOY production.

01:00 New Venise Discovery at Borralha

• 400m away from current St. Helena deposit.

  • Very good grades and solid intervals.

• Venise looks like it will significantly expand the exploration potential of Borralha.

• Current PEA is built totally on neighbouring St. Helena.

  • St. Helena itself will also soon have more tonnes to expand the resource.

• The proximity to St. Helena (and of both to so much surrounding infrastructure) means stronger economics as the two breccias will be able to “share” so much.

• Very happy with grade and width.

  • 1% over 13m is impressive.

• The breccia looks to be over 500m long.

  • They anticipate continuing to see these grades.

04:30 How does Venise anomaly compare to St. Helena?

• The miners when the mine was active was aware of the existence of Venise and its high grades.

  • High confidence in it.

• Still too early to make any definitive statements.

• However, they believe it will be comparable in size to St. Helena.

• Plan to be running two drills on Venise moving forward.

• Seven total drills turning now, with 5 on St. Helena.

07:30 NPV Discussion and Price Floor

• JRI: Binding off-take price floor of $1000 for the pilot plant (if you convert it to full production) equates to an after-tax NPV of US $350 million for St. Helena alone.

• Existing PEA is also only an 11 year mine life.

  • That will also grow as the resource continues to expand.

  • Lots of other anomalies to explore as well.

• Believes that within a year or so ACM could have one of the most significant deposits in Europe/western world.

09:30 Two different mineralisations – wolf and moly.

• Multiple multi-meter intervals that collectively* consist of 32m of 0.73% wolframite in the first 215 meters.

• Then, the mineralisation switches to Moly-dominant, with a highlight interval of 36m of 0.19%.

• There is a similar transition at St. Helena, but not nearly as significant.

• Not included in current PEA.

• How much moly do you need to start considering including it?

• (Note: Moly can be a challenging and expensive mineral to extract and process)

• It’s something they’re discussing internally.

• It’s the first hole, so again too early for anything definitive.

• There’s also (friendlier) chalcopyrite, and rare/expensive gallium as well.

• So grades are better just one hole in at Venise and they’re seeing much more significant amounts of other mineralisations as well.

• Potentially becoming a unique critical metals play in Portugal.

12:45 Are there concerns due to the proximity to the village of Borralha itself?

• Lots of historic UG workings already in existence.

• Again, there are major infrastructure advantages from proximity.

• The village was built as, and remains, a mining community.

• Comfortable with tungsten as an industry.

• JRI: You created a social committee with many local community members

• Want to create high level of trust with local stakeholders.

14:45 Strategic Investments and Offtakes

• $40 million financing and debt facility meant to take Allied all the way to pilot production.

• Involved both financing and debt facility.

• It is importantly a binding offtake with a price floor of $1000/mtu (which expires at EOY)

• Price is currently above $3000/mtu for the past few months.

• They will be trading their product at multiples of that floor.

What % of Rotterdam APT pricing can you expect to get?

• 80% is the generally fair rule, though they can only know for sure once they sell.

• He’s seen companies paying up to 103% of the pricing.

18:30 Has there been a delay in the close of the deal?

• There has been a delay.

• Lots of demand for data from the major strategic.

• Allied is a small team. We’ve done an incredible job getting Allied to the point it is at, which is why it attracted these partners.

• But the due diligence process for this partner is very intensive and Allied remains a small company that is growing aggressively.

• Limited time and multiple demands.

• Expects it to be wrapped up over the next couple of weeks.

• These are very well-known international strategics.

• Part of the validation for Roy is the quality of these names.

• Getting their attention in the first place only 14 or 15 months after going public is positive as well.

21:00 20,000 meter drill update.

• 5 on St. Helena, 2 on Venise.

• Very hot days – some days they’re being asked not to drill but otherwise the drilling is going extremely well.

• Will continue to see results come back from the lab and are confident they will continue to impress.

Uplisting to TSXV and Nasdaq

• Nasdaq expected by the fall.

• Part of their effort to make further inroads into the states – both the capital markets and the supply chain.

• Nasdaq helps global reach as well.

• American tungsten plays seem to sport a higher market cap.

24:15 Pilot Production still slated for Q4?

• Yes.

• Lot’s going on otherwise but still believe it’s doable.

• Great team working hard.

• They’ve hit their goals on target the past year or so.

• Initial commercial production slated for late 2027

• Need to get to production quickly based on current government and other end users consistent demands for it at such high prices.

• Their ability to get to production quickly is why they were able to secure the funding they did, and the strategic buying in supports that vision.

• Successful tungsten producers have billion dollar (or more) market caps.

• Means there remains a lot of upside from here.

• There is a continuing, dire need for western tungsten.

27:00 Final Thoughts

• There is still so much upside here as we transition here.

• In a transformational moment as a company and the strategic financing reflects that.

• They keep on building serious tonnes and growing their future inventory with these discoveries even as they are readying for near-term production.

• They believe Vila Verde is even better than Borralha.

• Believe they have a world-class collection of deposits and discoveries.

• Tungsten will not stop being a massive priority as the new ex-China reality continues to settle in

Disclaimer

The content found in the JuniorResourceInvesting podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. The information provided is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we are not responsible for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. We are not registered investment advisors. It is based on opinions, SEDAR+ filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and JuniorResourceInvesting offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on JuniorResourceInvesting or our videos. We may hold equity positions in some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. Similarly, we may have been compensated by the company we interviewed for this episode, which is also an obvious conflict of interest. I work hard to be independent, objective, and selective, but you should be critical of my work. JuniorResourceInvesting may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on JuniorResourceInvesting is to be used at your own risk. By following JuniorResourceInvesting, you agree to hold JuniorResourceInvesting, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred. Rights to all images remain with original owner.

tl;dr:

A quick update from Cosa Resources as the drill is turning on their Murphy Lake North (MLN) once more. CEO Keith Bodnarchuk met up with me last week and we covered a quick few topics - their recent financing, the current drill campaign, and Keith’s thoughts on the overall uranium sector.

1. Interview

Time Stamps

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00:30 Bought Deal
02:00 Current Drill Program
06:30 Where are you drilling?
09:00 Was there any internal debate on your approach?
11:00 Darby
12:30 Thoughts on Macro Uranium Sector

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2. Companion Article

Cosa CEO Keith Bodnarchuk sat down for another quick update with me. Clearly the main topic was going to be the ongoing drill campaign at MLN, but we also discussed the recent financing and Keith’s thoughts on recent macro uranium sector news.

Here’s a brief rundown of our conversation:

Bought Deal

• Recently completed. Open and shut in about two weeks. Was filled within the first 24 hours.

• What started at $5 million became $12 million and could have been as high as $24 million as Keith told me, raised via predominantly high-quality, large, long funds.

• This gives Cosa an impressive $18 million in cash at the start of their current campaign.

• That cash position, and the strong, high-quality demand for their private placement are both key indicators to me about the strength of this team and how serious the market takes them and their potential.

Macro Uranium Thoughts

• USA has announced $17 billion in government loans to get 10 new nuclear reactors under construction by 2030.

• Canada has put out a similar, if more vague, commitment, calling for up to 10 more reactors by 2040.

• However, there has been no similar announcement for exploration needed to fulfill all this announced demand and there is already a chronic, largening deficit.

• Massive uptake in announced demand and no major recent discoveries to fulfill it.

• Keith continues to believe all the elements of a massive uranium bull market are in place.
  

Drill Campaign

• 6,000m planned for MLN this summer.

• First hole was on-section to the south of their previous drilling last winter.

• Declined to elaborate on specifics of where they are drilling along the cyclone trend, but did say you don’t move too far from the results they have had to date.

• They’ve seen immense amounts of alteration everywhere they’ve drilled, so cyclone truly is wide open.

• Up to a km between previous holes. Lots of room for a classic Athabasca deposit that’s only a couple hundred meters long.

• They do have plans for Darby but, as with at MLN, everything depends on what they do or don’t discover.

• Drill results determine further exploration from here.

I’ll keep this one short and sweet. No major developments to wax on about here, just a very solid explore co in the middle of an excitingly high-impact campaign that is deserving of your close attention.

Cosa remains a high-trust, and large, position for me. My conviction is built on my belief that Cosa has got the team, the knowledge, the industry connections, and the land package to make a discovery happen, whether it ends up being at MLN, Darby, or somewhere else. I like the odds here. A lot.

In the meantime, in the here and now, Cosa is drilling as you read this on some of the best unexplored land left in the entire basin on the back of some extremely encouraging initial drill results from last winter. And as Keith himself said, all it takes is one drill hole to completely redefine this company and its valuation. The potential here is enormous, and I want to have a seat on the ride for that potential.

I’m long.

Thanks for reading. Summary below.

Matthew

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3. Written Summary

00:30 Bought Deal

• Upsized to about $12 million.

  • Was filled in the first 24 hours.

  • Could have been double that.

• Our last results got a lot of attention in the sector.

  • Some larger institutions had been waiting for results and are now in.

• Important getting deeper and deeper pockets involved as the company matures.

02:00 Current Drill Program

• Back at Murphy Lake North (MLN)

• Previously they started along trend of Hurricane up in the corner of the property.

  • Ran out of room to make a discovery, so moved south to parallel cyclone trend

• They’ve hit lots of alteration now along the cyclone trend – 1+km between holes.

  • Very encouraging.

  • Have a huge amount of space left for a discovery.

  • Their very first hole in a 2km gap last winter hit mineralisation.

  • Their big hole isn’t massive but compares well to discovery holes of other major Athabasca uranium deposits.

• These deposits are often just 100-300m in length.

• Spring break up gave them time to meet with JV partner Denison, build exploration plan, raise cash ($12 million bought deal).

06:30 Where are you drilling?

• Won’t get into specifics but it is a balancing act.

• He tries to keep some separation from the exploration so he can more easily still discuss the company with outsiders like JRI.

• This area isn’t just long, it’s wide too - the structural corridor as 100+m wide.

  • Lots and lots of room for a major deposit.

• First hole was drilled on section to the south.

• Will balance stepping out with following up on prior results.

  • Knowing they already have uranium they don’t want to go too far away.

• They will adapt on the fly to what they see as they go.

  • You also can’t get married to an idea.

  • The geology will guide you.

• 6000m planned gives them multiple chances.

09:00 Was there any internal debate on your approach?

• Not at all.

• Maybe a little diversity in order of targets, but they were all excited to get back on Cyclone immediately and in agreement on the approach they are taking.

• Has barely been a year since they acquired these projects.

• It only takes one hole for this company to rerate.

• Very structurally complex area. (That’s a good thing.)

• First chance at actual detailed drilling in this area and trend.

11:00 Darby

• 6000 meters planned for MLN, what is to come for Darby?

• Plan right now is for some September drilling there.

• There are follow-up targets already for them from last program.

  • Plus they want to get onto the Bravo trend.

    • Andy (chief geo) and Steve (chair) both really like Bravo

• Want to put 3 or 4 holes into a couple different areas, but there’s lots of flexibility/optionality based on results.

• They still really like Darby. Has everything you need for a deposit.

• Excited to be fully cashed up and not limited in what they do by cash.

• $18 million now in the bank.

12:30 Thoughts on Macro Uranium Sector

• Continue to see positive news on the demand side.

  • USA committed $17 billion in loans to build more nuclear reactors.

  • Canada announced plans to build 10 new CANDUs.

• Governments keep announcing all these plans for future demand but there has been no corresponding commitment on expanding supply to meet these demands.

  • Still a major information gap in this regard.

• The supply side continues to lag badly behind.

  • There are a couple Athabasca projects coming online in 3 or 4 years, but after that there’s a huge gap in supply where there aren’t any noteworthy deposits in the Athabasca even at the PEA stage.

  • The next big one needs to be found.

• There are supply gaps in many critical metals but uranium’s is especially pronounced because of that lack of tier one projects coming down the pipe.

• These realities will eventually become impossible to ignore and will fuel an inevitable major uranium bull cycle.

Disclaimer

The content found in the JuniorResourceInvesting podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. The information provided is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we are not responsible for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. We are not registered investment advisors. It is based on opinions, SEDAR+ filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and JuniorResourceInvesting offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on JuniorResourceInvesting or our videos. We may hold equity positions in some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. Similarly, we may have been compensated by the company we interviewed for this episode, which is also an obvious conflict of interest. I work hard to be independent, objective, and selective, but you should be critical of my work. JuniorResourceInvesting may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on JuniorResourceInvesting is to be used at your own risk. By following JuniorResourceInvesting, you agree to hold JuniorResourceInvesting, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred. Rights to all images remain with original owner.

tl;dr:
Contango Silver & Gold (CTGO.TO) continues to strengthen its position across multiple fronts. The most recent headline out of Contango eliminates their remaining hedges ounces (converted to low-interest, short-term debt), which adds tens of millions of dollars of cash to Contango over the next couple years. Otherwise, Contango’s various properties continue to produce high-grade results as Contango continues to execute on a 5 year plan to triple or more its current production. I end by discussing Contango’s share price performance, which has confusingly lagged compared to its sector peers.
Content:
1. Video Interview; 2. Companion Article; 3. Written Summary.

1. Interview

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Time Stamps

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02:30 Were the banks reluctant to renegotiate?
05:45 Lucky Shot Update
15:00 Kitsault Valley Update
21:30 Johnson Tract Update
27:15 Manh Choh Update
29:20 Final Thoughts

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2. Companion Article

Important Note: If you like my work, please click through here and subscribe to CTGO's newsletter to help me demonstrate following I can bring to their story:

https://why-invest-in-ctgo.com/

1. Intro

Another update interview with Contango Silver & Gold (CTGO) CEO Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse. At the pace CTGO puts out news (the natural result of simultaneously advancing four separate projects towards and through production) they’re always well-warranted.

And so Rick recently sat down with me for a series of quick-hit, project-by-project updates. We led off our conversation, though, by discussing Contango’s most recent bit of news, a boardroom update which in the specific reflects Contango’s general strategy of constantly building out the value of its various projects.

Below are my thoughts on our conversation. For our conversation itself, watch the video interview above or skip to the written summary below this article.

2. Hedging Elimination (and Lucky Shot Renegotiation)

The most recent news regards the official elimination of the last of the hedged ounces, which finally, fully frees up the entirety of CTGO’s Manh Choh production to be exposed to spot.

The terms of the deal make this move pretty self-explanatory: $33 million (USD) added to their preexisting credit facility to eliminate 15,000 hedged ounces, and the interest rate for the backloaded two year term reduced from 8.7% to 7.4%. By my math, and accounting for debt payments, it will ultimately cost Contango some ~$2400/oz or so to unhedge these ounces.

And now compare that to the upside of this move, with gold still above $4000 even after a significant pullback. That’s multiple tens of millions in potential additional revenue.

A similar, and similarly-accretive, restructuring also happened with Lucky Shot over the past few weeks as well, nicely illustrating the power of both having cash and cash up front. With this deal, CTGO has converted some $18 million in long term debt into ~$6 million of up front payments, in so doing consolidating 100% ownership of all of Lucky Shot and extinguishing the underlying royalty.

Making a more general note re: Contango, these deals are also good examples of one of the reasons I am invested in Contango: The constant M&A/general deals churn they engage in. Exploration is only one part of an effective strategy in this sector. Whether you’re a $5 or $500 million company, you should be constantly looking to add value. Grow or die. And this is something Contango understands and executes on extremely effectively.

3. Project Update Summaries

I’ll keep this more brief as the summary below captures the key notes well.

Manh Choh

• Currently pre-stripping the larger, main South Pit, which accounts for the reduced production rates the last couple quarters but will scale back up soon.

• Even with this reduction, Contango still received a $9 million distribution from their production JV with Kinross last quarter.

Lucky Shot

• Drill results are as expected - narrow, high-grade intercepts.

• Steadily expanding the known mineralisation.

• The most exciting development has been the discovery of the Keith Miles (KM) vein (headline number of 5.92m of 60.24 g/t Au), which crosscuts the main Lucky Shot vein system. This discovery opens up a new understanding of the fault structure of Lucky Shot and substantially increases the exploration potential.

Johnson Tract

• Construction and permitting ongoing. Road to future portal site is the recent major project.

• Fast 41 federal permitting has been very positive experience.

Kitsault Valley

• 40,000+ meter drill program this season (5 rigs).

• Drilling has been going exceptionally well. Will exceed the 40,000m target.

• Roughly 1/3 the original meterage dedicated to discovery drilling.

• Updated resource (excluding current campaign) due within a few weeks.

• PEA and another resource update to follow roughly this time next year.
  

4. Share Price Performance

And yet, despite simultaneously successfully executing on both its original step-by-step vision while also steadily growing its overall potential through further dealmaking, Contango frustratingly finds itself at or near 52W+ lows. Which I still struggle with understanding fully.

So what’s happening? Well, the first thing the chart makes clear is that Contango has been trading as a silver stock. Take a look for yourself at CTGO vs. silver vs. gold below:

That’s a very strong correlation to silver spot, which has slumped consistently this year after its dizzying blow off top in January. But… why?

Yes, the recent merger with Dolly Varden has resulted in Kitsault Valley’s silver-majority resource becoming a keystone property for Contango. But Kitsault valley is at least 5 years from production, with two separate gold-dominant projects due to come online to triple CTGO’s annual production before it (call it 200,000 annually, which will be 80%+ gold in the next 2-4 years). So the market seems a little premature-if-not-wholly-wrong to label Contango a silver stock as it apparently so confidently has.

So Contango is trading as a silver play. It shouldn’t really be, but it is. Now let’s take this a step further and also compare Contango to a couple of its big brother peers in the North American precious metals space - Hecla (HL) and Wesdome (WDL).

Now there is a difference in scale here. Wesdome is in around 200,000 ounces of gold guided annually after taking a few years to scale up, while Hecla is a ~60/40 silver/gold split producing 350,000-400,000 GEOs annually (this compared to Contango’s ~60,000 ounce guidance.) But still, these are established North American producers that Contango lags in scale by only a couple years. While they may not be the same market caps, similar charts seems a reasonable assumption. And yet.

Here’s a two year chart comparing Hecla (orange), Wesdome (green), GDXJ (red), and Contango (white):

Some thoughts on the above:

1. Hecla trades very closely with silver, as you’d expect.

2. There was some strong positive correlation up until silver’s March collapse, but from that point on, Wesdome as a gold play begins to positively separate itself from silver and even the GDXJ itself.

3. Contango is much more beaten down than its peer group, n now red for the past two years and significantly lagging the while the sector at large which is still roughly holding onto a double over that time period.

(Consider this a brief sneak preview of a future project of mine - a Contango peer comparison infographic. More later.)

So even though Contango continues to execute, it also continues to lag in terms of market performance.

5. Conclusion and Thoughts on Performance

So why the performance gap between Contango and its peers, you ask? To begin, and to be clear, I don’t see a fatal flaw in Contango. Rather, I continue to see it as a smart play with market-beating potential and continue to be confidently invested in it. But I understand that may feel like small comfort to you if you followed me into Contango with size this year as Contango has been off the pace recently.

So what’s going on? You’ve got a company producing significant levels of revenue, with a clear path to expanded high-grade production, reduced construction and development risk exposure, and an expert leadership team. So why is it lagging?

One part of this has no choice but to be a bit of a shrug from me, because I just don’t know how to explain the discrepancy between what I am watching Contango do and how the market is reacting to it. This is a strong company with a strong foundation and a strong future.

However, “I don’t know” isn’t a very satisfying answer. So I will return to the same explanation I’ve offered before - that the market remains skeptical and still in “prove it” mode for Contango’s DSO model. And if you don’t give Contango any credit for the three other projects they are advancing, all Contango has going for it is the currently-producing Manh Choh, which on paper is officially a depleting asset with a short mine life (though Contango remains firmly confident in its ability to expand the resource for a good while yet).

But I just flat out don’t agree with the level of disbelief you’d need to make Contango red over the past two years as the market has. Contango’s DSO model is reasonable, achievable, and smart. Their selection criteria filters out many of the risks that could derail such a model. And they produce impressive margins on the backs of greatly reduced construction and execution risk.

Lucky Shot is 2-3 years from production. Johnson Tract due for production a couple years after that, and Kitsault Valley another couple years still from there. All while Manh Choh keeps steadily churning out impressive revenue.

In a sector where I basically never hold any position truly long-term, this company is one I am comfortable holding for years as its vision takes shape.

So the bad news is, Contango’s share price has struggled.

But the good news is this remains an excellent company at depressed valuations even while producing high-grade gold during a huge gold spot run. Which is to say, this remains an exceptional buying opportunity if you believe in Contango’s vision. Which I do.

Written summary below.

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3. Written Summary

News Update: Elimination of Hedges

• Final hedges have now been cleared out a year or more ahead of schedule.

• 15,000 ounces hedged at $1935 spot have been converted to $33 million in debt

• Added to their preexisting loan facility (Backloaded 2 year term)

• Averaged about $2200/ounce to convert.

• Interest rate was also lowered from 8.7% to 7.4%.

What’s the discrepancy between hedged price and debt price?

• There’s a couple parts to it.

  • Most of it comes from accounting for the futures pricing curve when buying future hedged ounces (these were deliverable next year).

  • Another part was the bank had them buy about a million dollars of gold puts at $3100.

• Hedge price is only a reference for the final price. Can’t work numbers off it.

02:30 Were the banks reluctant to renegotiate?

• First off, credit goes to CFO Mike Clark who engineered the whole deal.
  

• But interestingly, no. Banks were supportive.

  • They didn’t like being exposed to even hedged gold prices.

  • They’d have actually made more money with CTGO if they hadn’t hedged.

• As gold made its big correction down from 5,500 to south of 4,000 and geopolitical risks started to pile on attitudes shifted a bit.

• They also noted that central banks had begun buying gold again when it hit that $3900 or so mark.

• With banks treating $3900-$4000 as the floor to buy at, when the price crashed to that level they went to their own bankers with the proposal.

05:45 Lucky Shot Update

• Drill results and boardroom updates..

• Recently converted roughly $18 million in long-term option obligations into about $6 million in up front payments.

  • Why was this a priority?

    • They wanted to clean up Lucky Shot. No overhang into the future.

    • Now they are 100% owners, including having bought back the 2% royalty.

    • They believe in Lucky Shot’s potential and wanted to clear out any obstructions.

    • Just like clearing out your balance sheet. Maximise the impact/benefit of the project.

• Lucky Shot Drill Campaign

  • 18,000 meters planned.

  • Over 30 holes and 7,000m in now.

  • Basically keep finding what they thought they would find.

    • Narrow, high-grade quartz vein gold.

  • New KM vein that runs in a fault cross-cutting the dominant fault is an exciting development.

    • Opens up further previously unknown exploration potential

• Even though their surface drilling has to be helicopter-supported, it has remained quite cheap because they’re so close to infrastructure.

How big do you think LS could ultimately end up being?

• The 500,000 target is just their initial target to get into production with a 5-10 year mine life.

• The vein system is very strong and well-mineralised.

• Wouldn’t be surprised if it ended up being multi-million ounce in size.

• They control some 90% of the district.

• Being able to advance these projects into production will unlock further aggressive exploration.

• They remain focused on getting high grade gold into production quickly.

  • However, they would certainly flag a lower-grade hypothetical discovery as something to return to.

  • All comes down to if advancing the project to production (and the time and money it takes to do so) makes sense

• As their annual production scales up (and cash position) it opens the range of possibilities.

• But all of their projects have plenty of further potential.

  • Manh Choh, Lucky Shot, Johnson Tract.

  • Kitsault Valley is basically the entire southern corn of the Golden Triangle.

15:00 Kitsault Valley Update

• 40,000m drill campaign dedicated largely to expanding and upgrading the current resource.

  • 10,000 total dedicated to discovery drilling at new targets.

• Drilling was announced end of May.

• Expected timeline for resource update?

  • Still expected by end of month or soon after.

  • In the middle of final touches.

• 190,000 meters of drilling, with about 150,000 meters in mineralisation.

• Kitsault consistently has top 10 monthly drill results in both gold and silver.

  • Southern is more silver and additional metals.

  • North is more gold-dominant.

• Half-way through the 40,000 planned meters but only a third of the way through the season.

  • Will just keep drilling to end of season.

  • Will start releasing results likely in about a month, and will release in batches every couple of weeks from there.

Approach towards inferred ounces for next year’s PEA.

• At Homestake, it will definitely upgrade inferred to M+I.

  A lot of the current campaign is going into expanding Homestake and neighbouring areas.

  • However, it won’t be included in near-term resource.

    • Other discoveries they have already made and expanded on won’t be in the resource either.

  • The 40,000+ meters they plan this campaign will of course add to those numbers.

• Targeting ~100m oz of silver and 1+m oz of gold.

• Has been a very successful drill campaign this year.

  • 5 rigs, 100 meters daily – never seen that much production.

• Likely get far more than forty thousand meters this year.
  

21:30 Johnson Tract Update

• Fast 41’s success

  • Transparent and regular, public updates.

  • Impressed by clear expectations and timelines for both company and agency.

• Hope it becomes a standard for all major projects.

• Same level of company expectations as before, just commitment to timelines.
  
  

  

General Update and Next Steps

• Lots on the go

  • Road connecting camp to portal is complete.

  • Big equipment and infrastructure is all mobilized.

  • Nearly ready to begin building the tunnel, but not quite yet.

  • Looking to upgrade camp for increased winter operations.

• Federally – Fast 41 as was discussed.

  • Going through permitting there to get necessary approvals for roads, landing sites, etc.

  • Expected to be done March, 2028

• JT like KV is often found in top 10 drill result charts.

• Once tunnel is done they will drill about 20,000m to get to feasibility level mine plan.

• No PFS – straight to FS.

  • Because of DSO model, these mine plans are much simpler than building a full facility.

  • “Feasibility-lite”

27:15 Manh Choh Update

• Mine plan entering new phase.

  • Pre-stripping the second, larger (south) pit caused a delay

  • Even in their worst quarter here they still received $9 million quarterly distribution.

29:20 Final Thoughts

• No one thought we would see even $4000 gold a couple years ago.

• Approaching $40 trillion in US Federal debt.

• The central banks are buying gold because paper money is losing credibility.

• All the underlying factors remain bullish gold.

Disclaimer

The content found in the JuniorResourceInvesting podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. The information provided is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we are not responsible for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. We are not registered investment advisors. It is based on opinions, SEDAR+ filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and JuniorResourceInvesting offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on JuniorResourceInvesting or our videos. We may hold equity positions in some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. Similarly, we may have been compensated by the company we interviewed for this episode, which is also an obvious conflict of interest. I work hard to be independent, objective, and selective, but you should be critical of my work. JuniorResourceInvesting may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on JuniorResourceInvesting is to be used at your own risk. By following JuniorResourceInvesting, you agree to hold JuniorResourceInvesting, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred. Rights to all images remain with original owner.

Sector News

Index

1. Uranium Tail Winds Continue to Build

   1. Changes to Kazakhstan Uranium Policy

   2. USA Announces Federal Nuclear Financing

   3. Canadian Nuclear Energy Strategy

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1. Uranium Tail Winds Continue to Build

I believe uranium is moving inexorably toward a big bull run. Macro factors continue to pile up, and there seems to be no real way to avoid what’s coming.

There are many other factors, but most simply and fundamentally there is a substantial supply deficit coming in uranium, one that is starting to yawn ever wider as new, significant western discoveries fail to materialize as nuclear demand continues to steadily return while the world increasingly decarbonizes its energy supplies.

The past few weeks has seen several headlines hit the news wire that underscore how powerful the building tail winds are becoming:

2.a. Changes to Kazakhstan Uranium Policy

With Kazakhstan being the leading jurisdictional competition (currently producing ~39% of annual global production vs. Canada’s ~24%) for Canada’s Athabasca basin, changes to Kazakh/Kazatomprom policy can have a direct impact on Canadian-based explorecos. So Kazatomprom’s recent tightening of foreign ownership rules is one of those choices that promises to have lasting, global influence. Put simply,
any new exploration licenses must be in the form of a JV with Kazatomprom wherein they control 75% of the JV. This is done in the name of shoring up Kazakhstan’s declining reserve base, but in effect has had a chilling impact on foreign ownership and investment.

Kazakhstan has also announced a new, increased, sliding-scale Mineral Exploration Tax. This has contributed to increasing costs in Kazakhstan, with Kazatomprom reporting in increased AISC now approaching $36/lb1.

Kazatomprom states it is enacting these changes to enforce the long-term sustainability of their industry. And that may well be true. But it also looks to have had the effect of pushing renewed interest in the Athabasca basin as the inherent economic advantages of Kazakhstan-based exploration steadily erode.

Which means further tailwinds for western (and for my own focus) Athabasca-based explorecos and devcos.

2.b. USA Announces Federal Nuclear Financing

Another American government update prioritizing uranium was recently announced. This one comes in the form of $17.5 billion in loan funding to be made available to the American nuclear supply chain, primarily in the form of new plant construction, with the aim of 10 new plants under construction by 2030. In a sector that measures progress in decades, that is outstandingly fast. It also means that new discoveries are needed, now, to have even a chance of matching these growing demands. Again, more tailwinds.

2.c. Canadian Nuclear Energy Strategy

In a similar vein, on June 21, the Canadian government announced their new Nuclear Energy Strategy (third party summary here). Overall, this is a clear statement by the Liberal Party about their intention to prioritize nuclear energy. 10 new reactors by 2035. Streamlined permitting processes. Increased priority of projects with Indigenous backing. New federal funding to support the sector (though with no concrete number yet announced - classic Liberal trick there, no?). Uranium is being shoulder-tapped by Canada, as it has by so many other jurisdictions, as one of the key critical minerals, as this clearly demonstrates.

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Company News

1. Exploration Stories

Index

1. Cosa Resources (COSA.V)

2. Founders Metals (FDR.V)

3. BCM Resources (B.V)

4. Thesis Gold & Silver (TAU.V)

5. Arizona Gold & Silver (AZS.V)

6. Tocvan Ventures (TOC.CN)

7. Contango Silver & Gold (CTGO.TO)

1. Cosa Resources (COSA.V)

Core News: Cosa Commences Largest Drill Program to Date at the Murphy Lake North Uranium Joint Venture with Denison Mines

This might just be my most anticipated pure discovery play right now. They ended last winter’s drilling with tantalizing results and are now back in the field on their 70%-owned Murphy Lake North (MLN) project, a tier-one property obtained via Cosa’s JV with key uranium devco Denison Mines.

They’ve been drilling for about two weeks now, with some 6,000 meters and 15 holes planned. At MLN, they’re immediately following up on their biggest hit of the winter, which is being interpreted as on the potential fringe of a larger system and is in the middle of some 1.2+km of meaningful strike length to explore.

To be clear, there remains other high-quality targets further afield at MLN or over at Darby (or on their several other properties) and Darby will receive some drilling this summer as well. This is not a one trick pony.

But all eyes are on MLN. And I do mean that - Cosa has a significant following watching their efforts. A track record of discovery expertise, deep market connections, the JV with Denison, and a lack of significant uranium discoveries in recent years have combined to build a situation where Cosa could run hard on the back of any significant results.

But look, discovery is a long and complex process in which failure is both inevitable and necessary to success. So I don’t want to overdo it here. Understand that even if a discovery is indeed to be made here (and that’s no guarantee!) that it might happen this campaign, or it might be the next, or the next after that. Successfully picking discovery plays comes down to identifying the right team with the right land and then being patient enough to let them do their thing. It’s the same old story - buy into teams you trust and let them cook.

And that is why I am (very) long Cosa right now.

2. Founders Metals (FDR.V)

Founders just keeps drilling and putting out no shortage of drill news. Which is unsurprising as the meters pile up pretty quickly when you have 4-5 rigs turning simultaneously. And both the original Antino land package as well as the new addition has been having exploration success.

Achieving critical mass in terms of market cap, as Founders has, gives them the luxury of exhaustive, authoritative exploration campaigns without the drip-feed budgetary restraints of smaller explorecos. One such effective example of this is the 3m-spaced, 30m-deep augur sampling grid conducted at Maria Geralda that has now mapped out a whole new plunging shoot of high-grade gold mineralisation, thus providing key insights into MG’s orientation and aiding in further Founders drilling.

Elsewhere, mineralization at Upper Antino has been meaningfully expanded both to the west and north. The northern expansion - some 3m of 29.17 g/t Au - comes 1km or more north of the main discovery zone and significantly extends UA’s prospective strike length, while the western discovery (53.1m of 1.21 g/t Au from surface), in new land, is a brand new zone.

And at Lower Antino, Founders has now hit a pocket of high-grade gold there for the first time, adding another important piece to the overall puzzle that redefines LA’s potential if it can be replicated now.

This ability to fight a multi-pronged war in their grassroots-to-drilling exploration pipeline creates incredible potential for constant drill-based valuation growth. I can’t account for the vagaries of the market, but I do know high-confidence paths towards further growth. Founders will rise once more.

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3. BCM Resources (B.V)

B.V is a quiet operator, even to the point of some investor frustration. Non-promotional. Content to let their (substantial) C-Suite connections grind through deals slowly but finely. But boy they sure seem like they might have something with their Thompson Knolls (TK) deep porphyry project.

The last formal company update came June 1, confirming the successful completion of their second hole, an impressive 1,269m in length. Drilling is slow going but they look like they’ve figured out their process nicely now (RC+core combo drilling effort) after some complications in prior campaigns.

In “developments that make you go ‘…huh’” Rio Tinto subsidiary Kennecott Exploration has begun drilling on their own land package immediately adjacent to TK, staked after TK, and are drilling only a few hundred meters away from the border with TK. Seems like one of those tells you’re always on the lookout for, no?

This is a small company with very big dreams (and very big neighbours). Cost to test is high here, but the size of the prize is massive. At the very least, CEO (highly respected porphyry expert) Sergei Diakov seems confident he will be making another significant copper porphyry discovery.

4. Thesis Gold & Silver (TAU.V)

I have been waiting for years for Thesis to steadily clear out its proverbial to-do list to get to exploring for its underlying porphyry potential. Now, with the Lawyers-Ranch project well on its way, built on high-quality ounces and approaching a feasibility study, it looks like the time is finally here.

To be clear, this isn’t really an exploration story. Thesis already has every ounce it needs to continue to grow as an excellent Canadian gold/silver project. It will almost certainly be built when the time comes and will almost certainly continue to appreciate in value along the way to first pour.

Which, not to get too cute, but all that is exactly why I like Thesis as an exploration story. It’s pure gravy. If this porphyry system can get mastered and prove to be large and substantial, Thesis evolves into a fundamentally different, much larger story. And if the porphyry ends up being too stubborn to reasonably master, or results in sub-economic grades… who cares? Thesis already has a project that sports a $4.4 billion after-tax NPV at $4100 gold and $51 silver.

So you get the best of both worlds - the ultimate valuation backstop tethered to extremely blue sky exploration potential.

And Thesis is officially drilling, with some 12,000 meters dedicated this season to discovery drilling, including for porphyry targets. A continuing key favourite and key pick. I will get CEO Ewan Webster on soon.

5. Arizona Gold & Silver (AZS.V)

At long last, the good news AZS has been waiting for has arrived. Those pesky BLM permits, first thought to be in hand by end of 2025, are finally here. And it is certainly welcome news as AZS has been stuck nibbling at the edges of what they interpret to be a large, high-grade system lurking in the deep while they have waited since last fall for these permits.

Arizona will now, excitingly, be able to build the drill pads where they need to to get properly good and deep into the guts of their system.

And it couldn’t come soon enough, as while AZS have managed to increase their geological understanding of the system in the time since, they’ve nevertheless been a classic, unfortunate, example of the eroding impact of time delays on a company’s valuation.

Yes, whatever lies lurking below the Red Hills at their Philadelphia project hasn’t gone anywhere (and there’s good evidence that it could be something special). But in the time it has taken to get these permits investors clearly have, moving on amid delays and turbulent markets. Frustrating, but understandable. And the reality. And something I cautioned against in the past even as I was excited by the potential here.

But it also means present opportunity: Arizona is well and fully cashed up. They have the permits. The mineralized system seems exciting. 16 new drill pads will keep them busy for a while from here and are more than enough to give the market what it’s been waiting on give AZS some love once more: Solid evidence detailing the size and grade of the high-grade source of all the rest of this system.

Good odds at good results at currently-depressed valuations.

6. Tocvan Ventures (TOC.CN)

Here’s another one where long-awaited plans seem to be nearing fruition. Tocvan has to date employed a two-pronged approach wherein they’ve conducted significant early-stage discovery drilling alongside advancing toward pilot production at their Gran Pilar project in Sonora.

On the exploration side, the current 20,000m campaign is roughly 1/3 done, with most of the meters still in the lab. Now, this drilling has largely consisted of first pass efforts across the larger property so I am moderating my expectations here. This is the early stage work that leads to discovery but may not yet uncover the discovery itself. Results to date have shown structure. Now Tocvan must find grade.

And with the amount of historic workings discovered, and quantity of anomalous soil and geophysical anomalies, means I remain optimistic that Tocvan will ultimately find success.

The pilot plant has taken some time to get off the ground but prep and construction efforts for it are in full swing and as per Tocvan’s last release, aims to be commissioned by end of year. That proof of concept will bolster Tocvan’s data set significantly, not to mention its revenue. And with the recent community agreement signed, a good chunk of potential jurisdictional risk in what is a sensitive region has been removed here.

A bit of a slow go here, but the vision remains reasonable and attainable.

7. Contango Silver & Gold (CTGO.TO)

Tough to know where to put this one, being a multi-project, multi-stage, 60,000 ounce producer that consistently puts out news at every step of the mining life cycle. The vision here is ambitious - continued, aggressive, long-term growth to its production profile.

The next project up in the production cycle for Contango, Lucky Shot, has dominated their headlines in recent months. Bonanza-grade drill results have been released alongside corporate consolidation of ownership news. And then recently, Contango paid out up front to extinguish at a discount long-term milestone payment commitments. Having the scale and financials to be able to make these long-term accretive decisions is an example of the smart leadership strategy of Contango I base a lot of my conviction on.

And, not to be outdone, it was announced that Manh Choh has delivered $9 million to Contango through the latest batch of its production JV with Kinross Gold. And then there is the newly-acquired Kitsault Valley, where 40,000 meters of drilling are underway and results, presumably, due soon.

This is part of the allure of Contango for me (in addition to strong leadership, high-grade production, and a great pipeline of projects) - the news flow is constant and significant. Bonanza results out of Lucky Shot, (likely) bonanza-grade results to come out of Kitsault Valley. Johnson Tract advancing rapidly to production. And Manh Choh just keeps printing money.

There is vision and ability here. Pricing has gotten walloped alongside gold’s downturn, but don’t let that fool you. Contango continues to execute and has a runway for market-beating growth from here over the coming years.

Development Stories

Index

1. Allied Critical Metals (ACM.CN)

2. AbraSilver (ABRA.TO)

1. Allied Critical Metals (ACM.CN)

I have just spent a couple hundred hours finishing a site visit video for this company, so I feel like I’ve been hyper-fixated on them for a while even while not really doing a nuts-and-bolts refresher on their news flow. So let me take a moment to reiterate here my confidence in the continued success of this story.

Here’s the video below:

As for Allied? They have the resource, they have the economics, they have the cash, the have the location and jurisdiction, and they have the macro backdrop as Chinese restrictions have completely rewritten the rules re: tungsten. And I just don’t think the toothpaste is going to go back in the jurisdictional tube. The west will have no choice but to panic over tungsten supply for some time yet.

Further drill results are pending. But more importantly, the pilot plant also still looks to be on track by end of year. And a glance at their big brother peers - EQ Resources, Almonty Industries, reveals that, if ACM can execute, they are only 1 or 2 years behind those names in production, and, presumably valuation. Which means multiples from here remain on the table. Long and confident still, even near these all-time highs.

2. AbraSilver (ABRA.TO)

A couple big headlines dot the end of June for old favourite Abra. First, the DFS was released, with an extremely impressive CAD$6.7 billion NPV at current spot prices (vs. a current market cap of $2.3 billion). Then, the final environmental permit required for construction was announced just two days later. These are obviously huge milestones for Abra.

And, based on the gap that still remains between market cap and NPV, and with a quick timeline to production from here, I believe Abra still has lots of high-confidence gains to be had from here as it marches on towards a construction decision and beyond. Cream always rises to the top.

Conclusion

Alright, summer is back in swing, which means so is my renovation hammer. But I’ve got a solid run of site visits planned out over the next 4-6 months, not to mention interviews and a passion project or two (that deep dive on my notable losses is finally on deck soon here). Hope you’re enjoying whatever it is you’re doing and wherever it is you are so far this summer.

Till next time.

Matthew

Disclaimer



The content found in the JuniorResourceInvesting podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. The information provided is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we are not responsible for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. We are not registered investment advisors. It is based on opinions, SEDAR+ filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and JuniorResourceInvesting offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on JuniorResourceInvesting or our videos. We may hold equity positions in some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. Similarly, we may have been compensated by the company we interviewed for this episode, which is also an obvious conflict of interest. I work hard to be independent, objective, and selective, but you should be critical of my work. JuniorResourceInvesting may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on JuniorResourceInvesting is to be used at your own risk. By following JuniorResourceInvesting, you agree to hold JuniorResourceInvesting, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred. Rights to all images remain with original owner.

1

Paywalled, but here:

The Hoot

A closer look at what it now costs to mine uranium in Kazakhstan

Read more

2 months ago · 7 likes · Ocean Wall

tl;dr:

Part two of my site visit project for Allied Critical Metals’ (ACM.CN) Borralha and Vila Verde tungsten projects in northern Portugal, following up on my article published in the winter. Below is the video cataloguing my travels.

1. Site Visit Video

This trip had a big impact on my (ongoing) confidence in Allied.

The video itself took a while, as I (frustratingly) ended up trapped on the wrong side of the 80/20 effort-output rule. But done it is (though I might owe Roy and Dave a beer here now). And while the footage is a few months old at this point, the content remains fresh as I’ve made sure to update Allied’s story in light of news since.

And Allied certainly has had no shortage of positive news to update the market on. Consider these two key, recent, updates:

And while Allied has had a huge run to date, I’m still very long on this story. There’s just so many key positive characteristics here that provide so much confidence in continued success. Roy and I have our own separate-but-similar checklists, but take a look at Roy’s below:

Simple. Cheap. Clean. Big and still growing. Clear government support. Fully-funded, near-term production. And truly critical tungsten supply-demand gaps that don’t have short term solutions coming for them.

And so, even though Allied has already 10Xed or more since listing about one year ago, I still believe there are multiples to go from here for them.

But I’ll let the video do the work from here. You can find it (and my site visit written report from last winter) below.

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Time Stamps

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03:18: VPEX Vitor Arezes
06:30: Importance of Wolframite Tungsten
09:00 Borralha Overview
13:30 Vila Verde
18:30 Tungsten Deposit Key Characteristics
21:30 Recap and what sets Allied apart

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2. Site Visit Report

I’ll embed the photo journal I published back in February for this trip below:

And just to highlight some work from that piece, here’s a peer comp infographic I made for it highlighting Allied against other larger tungsten plays.

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And hey, I’ll call it here. Thanks for reading, for viewing, and for your support.

Disclaimer

The content found in the JuniorResourceInvesting podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. The information provided is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we are not responsible for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. We are not registered investment advisors. It is based on opinions, SEDAR+ filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and JuniorResourceInvesting offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on JuniorResourceInvesting or our videos. We may hold equity positions in some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. Similarly, we may have been compensated by the company we interviewed for this episode, which is also an obvious conflict of interest. I work hard to be independent, objective, and selective, but you should be critical of my work. JuniorResourceInvesting may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on JuniorResourceInvesting is to be used at your own risk. By following JuniorResourceInvesting, you agree to hold JuniorResourceInvesting, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred. Rights to all images remain with original owner.

tl;dr:

An important update from Fathom Nickel has come out. For the first time, Fathom has detected nickel mineralisation in the metasedimentary host rock, rather than the intrusive magmatic it would have been originally carried in (and which also mirrors the geology of the prolific Thompson nickel belt Gochager shares the Trans Hudson Orogeny with).

For Fathom, this changes both what they are looking for and where they are looking. And if a Thompson-based model bears fruit for Fathom and a true new discovery is made, this update will have proved to be the start of a massive breakthrough. CEO Ian Fraser joins me to discuss.

1. Interview

Time Stamps

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01:45 Ian’s Intro
06:50 Compare to Thompson more directly
11:05 VTEM and Geophysical Work Now
16:30 How do you balance new model and old targets
19:30 Final Thoughts

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2. Companion Article

CEO Ian Fraser recently provided Fathom investors with a letter from the CEO providing a personal update on recent Fathom news and providing some critical context. He sat down with me least week to discuss this news.

What is it?

The short version is that for the first time, Fathom has detected nickel mineralisation in the metasedimentary host rock, rather than the intrusive magmatic it would have been originally carried in. This potentially completely changes the model of how to explore and what to explore for here.

This is obviously a crucial data point to add and opens up huge avenues of potential. It also further cements Gochager as an analogue of the prolific Thompson nickel belt of northern Manitoba, where the mobilization of nickel mineralisation out of intrusive and into the host rock is a key feature.

I will let Ian speak for himself, here. Below you will find a highlighted excerpt from Ian’s update containing the meat of the content.

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What’s next?

Another 2500-3000m of drilling (funded) is imminent for Fathom, and obviously some renewed excitement in light of these developments.

Obviously there is more work to be done now to reorient their understanding of Gochager in light of this news and you can be sure Ian will be meticulous in his approach.

But that isn’t to say there aren’t any immediate targets to be had. Excitingly, investors won’t have to wait long to get the first drill going on this new thesis, as Ian outlined two drill-ready targets Fathom is eager to follow up on:

1. The first is to explore the area in and around hole 25 where there was visible mineralisation in the metasediments.

2. The other is a conductive off-hole (hole 20) anomaly overlain by a strong geochemical anomaly located in the metasedimentary rocks roughly a kilometer NE of the historic Gochager deposit.

And of course their original exploration model within the intrusive gabbro continues to unearth mineralisation and further drill targets. Both the old model and the new will targeted in the drill campaign due to start within the next couple of weeks.

Conclusion

Making a discovery isn’t easy. The industry is littered with successful, even tier one, mines which multiple companies banged their heads against for years, if not decades, prior to that Eureka!-moment breakthrough that lead to mastery and discovery.

They have to go and prove it now, and even if successful that will take time and money, but this may have changed everything for Fathom. Which is obviously an exciting development. Still very high risk, but the potential reward here demands a spot on your watch list.

Written summary below.

Thanks for reading.

-Matthew from JRI

Leave a comment

3. Written Summary

Overview

• Preliminary investor update on its winter drill program.

• New information potentially changes their entire exploration model.

  • They now have found nickel mineralisation in the metasediments/country rock, rather than just the magmatic mafic/ultramafic rocks.

• This development now allows for a direct analogy to the Thompson Nickel Belt, where the same movement of nickel out of the ultra/mafic rocks occurred.

• Obviously potentially very big and very important news. Opens up a whole new realm of potential.

01:45 Ian’s Intro

• Last campaign they had drilled some additional holes in and around the historic deposit located in a classic mafic/ultramafic intrusive.

  • But they also went after a soil Geochem anomaly away to the NE that strangely sat on top of host metasedimentary rocks.

  • In hole 25 they realised they were seeing visible copper and pentlandite in the country rock.

• Was a bit of a eureka moment.

• Continues to work closely with Dr. Peter Lightfoot, formerly of Inco who is intimately knowledgeable of Canadian nickel deposits. Immense help.

  • He immediately compared this new discovery to Thompson when he saw photos of the core.

• The fact they’re seeing nickel in the metasediments means the nickel has migrated out of the original host magmatic intrusions.

• They’re in the same Trans Hudson Orogeny as the prolific Thompson Nickel Belt, same rocks, same age. No reason it can’t happen here.

  • Goal has always been to prove nickel potential doesn’t end at the Manitoba border.

    • This is a big step in proving this.

06:50 Compare to Thompson more directly.

• Three different potential models – Pipe, Thompson, and Birch Tree

• Origination:

  • Metasediments formed as sea/ocean floor.

  • Magma comes up out of the earths mantle and makes contact with sulphur and becomes saturated with it.

  • Magma becomes heavy from sulphides so the sulphides start accumulating at the base of the intrusions.

• In the Thompson model, as the original rocks get folded over millions of years, the sulphides get sucked out of the intrusive rocks into the surrounding country rock.

  • Deposits tend to be on the limbs of these folds, as the rocks effectively fold around them.

  • Peter Lightfoot calls this sulphide kinesis.

• Birth Tree and Pipe are a little different.

  • More mineralisation remains in the original ultramafic body.

• Finding what they did where they did was completely unexpected.

  • This implies there’s been a lot of this folding that has occurred and they need to situate themselves more that way.

11:05 VTEM

• The 2008 survey revealed numerous very strong conductors within the area.

  • Assumed the sedimentary hosted conductors were false positives.

  • Suddenly with this discovery they realise these may be much more interesting than was thought before.

  • Suddenly the conductors in the metasediments are very important potential targets.

• If the targets have potential as targets they will have both a mag high and be conductive. Need to find coincidental mag high and conductors.

16:30 How do you balance new model and old targets.

• Would love to have 10 or 15,000m to throw at it. Would let them do more science.

• Hoping they can get to 3000m this campaign.

  • They will certainly return to hole 25 and will also target the off hole anomaly further to the NE

  • It’s likely these mafic intrusives had the folding happen around them, so they need to go back and look again at structure and stratigraphy and identify these potential zones in the host rock.

19:30 Final Thoughts

• This was a complete surprise 500m along strike from Gochager.

• New model to build an exploration program around. Very positive.

• Drilling will begin again within a couple weeks.

• “We know we have the nickel.”

  • Just need to figure it all out.

• Keep being disciplined.

• Continue to test ideas and continue to expand the endowment potential of the area.

Disclaimer

The content found in the JuniorResourceInvesting podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. The information provided is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we are not responsible for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. We are not registered investment advisors. It is based on opinions, SEDAR+ filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and JuniorResourceInvesting offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on JuniorResourceInvesting or our videos. We may hold equity positions in some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. Similarly, we may have been compensated by the company we interviewed for this episode, which is also an obvious conflict of interest. I work hard to be independent, objective, and selective, but you should be critical of my work. JuniorResourceInvesting may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on JuniorResourceInvesting is to be used at your own risk. By following JuniorResourceInvesting, you agree to hold JuniorResourceInvesting, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred. Rights to all images remain with original owner.

tl;dr:

I’ve made 41 buy calls in 5 separate batches over the past 8 or 9 months. This update breaks down how those picks have done.

Quick review? I’ve done excellent. Taking all 41 calls into account, I’ve 4xed the average time-weighted returns of both SPY and GDXJ with them.

Below gives a full detailing of these picks and how they’ve done. No BS. No baloney. No black box magic math. All public information with losses clearly displayed. Infographic included. Plus, a new round of key company buy calls at the bottom.


Tickers: #ACM #AZS #CTGO #COSA #FDR #FNI #LUNR #NXE #ROCK #OKLO #TAU #TOC

Subscribe now

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Index

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1. Housekeeping Items

2. Written Overview

3. Infographic: “Buy Calls in Review”

4. 2026 Annual Picks in Review

5. Core Companies Since Initiation of Coverage

6. Every Batch - Picks and Returns

7. Conclusion and New Buy Calls

1. Housekeeping Items

Before we begin, here’s a couple nuts and bolts comments on this exercise:

With that out of the way, let’s get started.

2. Written Overview

Look, if you do what I do, you better beat your benchmarks. That’s the beginning and end of being a stock picker (which, doesn’t matter how fancy you dress it up, that’s what this whole game is about, right?). If you can’t do that, what’s the point?

So I feel pretty damn good about these results. I beat all relevant benchmarks (again) both consistently and significantly. I certainly have had my share of losses (and I’ve highlighted my worst performers in the infographic below). You will inevitably get bloodied in this sector, but I continue to consistently be able to make market-beating picks at a rate that overcomes those loses.

I may publish a detailed batch-by-batch discussion next, as I have one largely done I scrapped for length concerns. We shall see.

Take a look at the data highlights below:

Anyway, here’s the infographic:

3. Infographic: “Buy Calls in Review”

Here’s the keystone visual data set. Handmade in agonising detail.

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Come on. That’s pretty good eh. Almost any way you slice it, I comfortably beat both the sector and the market.

4. 2026 Annual Picks In Review

Here’s a more detailed breakdown of my annual picks discussed above.

Link here for original piece.

My keystone annual picks and I nailed them. 7/9 currently beating SPY and GDXJ. 5/9 currently at or above 46%+ YTD returns (that’s 100%+ annualised). 4 doubles. A triple. Not bad for 5 months of trading. My most degenerate pick - Oklo - is also by far my biggest loser of the bunch to date. Still lots of 2026 left, but a potential

GDXJ since Jan. 11 (high): -2% (25%)
SPY since Jan. 11 (high): 6% (6%)

JRI January Picks: 50% (74%)

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Breakdown

Current gains: 50%
Average Peak: 74%
Doubles (inc. 3+Xes): 4 (if you’ll give me ROCK.V’s 99%)
Triples: 1

Company Notes

4.1. Allied Critical Metals; ACM.CN (Core Pick)

I’ve pounded the table on this one for the better part of a year now. And tungsten isn’t done yet as large supply gaps have broken wide open that will take years to balance leaving plenty of room for this to run into cheap, easy production. One of my big wins of the year already, call this another buy call now that it has retraced back south of $2.00.

4.2. Contango Silver & Gold; CTGO.TO (Core Pick)

I feel I’ve got a decent peg on this one and how and why it moves, and I remain confident it will continue to grind higher. Silver spot crashing (especially compared to gold) while CTGO was directly arbitraged with silver-focused Dolly Varden meant this play suffered unnecessarily as a high-grade gold producer. And with the countdown on (less than a year to go now before all debts and hedges are paid off) till this thing is fully unshackled, I rather expect the next rerate is when, not if.

4.3. Cosa Resources; COSA.V (Core Pick)

A big win and core pick and position for me. Very impressed by their approach, work ethic, and ability. They’ve done it before and have what it takes to make lightning strike twice. Waiting on the formal chemical assay results but the market is clearly impressed by the early results from their Murphy Lake North project. I get it if you generally avoid the risk of pre-discovery cos, but if you aren’t in this one you should be following it extremely closely. They feel close.

4.4. Founders Metals; FDR.V (Core Pick)

Founders looks like it is beginning to get its groove back. The newly-grown land package has got boots all over it and good drill results are constantly coming in. Market-wise, Founders has spent a fairly volatile 12 months or so building its new base and it is beginning to feel more positivity in the charts. Calling a buy again here.

4.5. LunR Royalties; LUNR.V

It’s the Lundins. That could be the beginning an the end of it, honestly. A new vehicle for one of mining’s royal families, as they have begun to assemble various royalties on their giant copper projects under a single banner. Lots of energy around this one. Easy long-term hold.

4.6. Nexgen Energy; NXE.TO

Getting into Cosa has prompted me to cast a closer eye on the uranium sector. Cosa remains my biggest pick in the sector but I also wanted to increase my exposure higher up the uranium food chain. I was torn between Denison and Nexgen (and maybe should have just shoulder-tapped both originally) but ultimately chose Nexgen for the size and scale of their various projects. Remains a great long-term hold for exposure to uranium.

4.7. Thesis Gold; TAU.V (Core Pick)

Here’s one I get to feel smug over. Rounding up to a 5 bagger since I first started covering it and more than a double since I highlighted its significant valuation gap in my peer comparison deep dive last fall. If you want something you can buy, forget about for a couple years, and come back to one day for benchmark-beating returns this is it. Cream continues to rise to the top.

4.8. Oklo Inc; OKLO.NY

Two themes here: 1. Uranium. That’s still a good bet. And 2. Insider baseball ruling the roost in Washington, DC. Didn’t research it much beyond that. #2 has proven to be wildly accurate with increasingly brazen front-running happening in the option chains. C-Suite connections are naturally more of a slow burn. Oklo remains wildly volatile, we will see if/when its number gets called again here.

4.9. Trident Resources; ROCK.V

My hot new discovery play pick for the year. Saskatchewan gold play. New high-grade results around known historic deposits. Keeps putting up exceptional numbers from the drill bit that is driving a still-going rerating.

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5. Core Companies Since Initiation

As a general JRI update, here’s an update on my core picks since initiation of coverage in the form of an excel screen grab as well as individualised info cards. Additional company notes below as well.

5.1. Core Pick Spreadsheet

5.2. Core Pick Info Cards

5.3. Company Notes

Just two here as the remaining comments can be found above in part 4.

1. Fathom Nickel (FNI.CN)

I’m still sticking with this story. In part because I really do believe there’s something significant lurking up there and in part because I have some loyalty to CEO Ian Fraser at this point, respecting and trusting him on a personal and technical level. But with that in mind, it’s been a tough go for Fathom. They’ve made significant technical progress at Gochager, but the float is getting big and the project is hungry for many more meters. Still, the recent exploration update posted by Ian is a surprising new, potentially definitive, twist in this story. Ian keeps hunting and the ground keeps giving up more clues.

2. Tocvan Ventures (TOC.CN)

This one has languished recently. From my perspective, the key reason is jurisdictional concerns as the Vizsla Silver tragedy continues to shake the Mexican mining sector. Indeed, many Mexican explore cos have suffered sympathetically like Tocvan (now exacerbated by a turbulent market).

I remain long on Tocvan and trusting of CEO Brodie Sutherland’s management and vision but am cognizant of these concerns. Time will tell if Vizsla is an isolated (nightmarish) incident in the heart of Mexican cartel violence in Sinaloa, or if there is a new emerging threat to the Mexican mining sector. Ultimately as long as Sonora remains unbloodied I will remain long Tocvan.

And indeed, Tocvan keeps on steadily working their way through their enlarged Gran Pilar land package with an ongoing 20,000 meter campaign and thousands of meters in the labs. Very low economic hurdles here means drill results punch above their weight class.

6. Every Batch - Picks and Returns

Here’s full disclosure of all results for your perusal.

7. Conclusion and Buy Calls

Maybe you’ve done better than these results. If so, my hats of to you. But these were public, date-stamped buy calls made by me that consistently and demonstrably have beat all relevant indices. That has to be worth something.

Look, I don’t like self-aggrandisement. There’s a deep cosmic irony to the fact I’m in a job that has at least one foot in promotion, as I find it at best generally to be hokey and distasteful and at worst toxic and damaging.

But good news deserves to be heard, so to speak.

And the good news if you are a follower is that I continue to build a multi-year body of evidence that demonstrates a clear and consistent ability to beat my sector and the market. And that seems pretty important to make clear to people if you do what I do.

And maybe I will just leave it at that.

Future Buy Calls

I don’t want to make this already-lengthy piece grow any further, and I’ve got more, but I want to reiterate a few key buy calls here:

1. Allied Critical Metals. It’s in a fairly deep pullback currently, having given back 25% from its highs. But this remains a billion dollar idea if it reaches peer valuations. Tungsten remains small and under-the-radar.
2. Thesis Gold & Silver. Similar idea. 20%+ pullback from its recent highs but the inherent value here remains too obvious and too high. The march upward will continue.
3. Founders Metals. This one is getting its groove back. They’ve got the boots and the budget to tackle their large land package aggressively and in many places at once. This one is just a matter of time.

Honorary Mentions:

Arizona Gold & Silver. This company caught short shrift with this update a bit and deserves a call out. BLM permitting delays have ground it to a bit of a halt (again) but the mineral potential at Philadelphia remains exceptional, if a bit more complex than initially thought. I’d be much more actively excited about this one, but it remains on ice till permits are in again.

Tocvan Ventures. The current Mexican jurisdictional issues concerns worry me. But this is still a smartly-managed company on the precipice of a lot of opportunities to produce company-defining good news as they strike out across their larger Gran Pilar project for the first time ever.

Thanks for reading. Good luck out there. And go habs go.

Disclaimer

The content found in the JuniorResourceInvesting podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. The information provided is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we are not responsible for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. We are not registered investment advisors. It is based on opinions, SEDAR+ filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and JuniorResourceInvesting offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on JuniorResourceInvesting or our videos. We may hold equity positions in some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. Similarly, we may have been compensated by the company we interviewed for this episode, which is also an obvious conflict of interest. I work hard to be independent, objective, and selective, but you should be critical of my work. JuniorResourceInvesting may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on JuniorResourceInvesting is to be used at your own risk. By following JuniorResourceInvesting, you agree to hold JuniorResourceInvesting, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred. Rights to all images remain with original owner.

tl;dr:
Another update from Contango Silver & Gold. The merger with Dolly Varden is now complete. The new Canadian ticker is live. And Contango Silver & Gold (with $100 million of cash on hand and forecasting some $100 million in cash flow for 2026) has now announced plans to aggressively advance all four of its key projects this year. This remains a multi-year favourite pick of mine: They have huge potential and the team and experience to realise it. CEO Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse joins me for another update interview.

1. Interview

Time Stamps

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00:45 Compare the DV merger with others you’ve been a part of.
03:45 Challenges combining two distinct investor bases.
06:00 Why the need for a Canadian ticker.
09:00 Do you risk “losing credit” for KV now that it’s part of a bigger package?
15:00 How much does the rising price of oil impact CTGO?
19:15 Question on Guidance - Discrepancy in 2026 number
22:45 Final Thoughts

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2. Companion Article

Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse will be no stranger to my readers. The CEO of the newly-renamed Contango Silver & Gold (courtesy of the merger with equal partner Dolly Varden) has joined me now multiple times to discuss Contango, its current plans, and their future vision.

But don’t let familiarity breed complacency. This remains an exceptional company with a plan that should take it many multiples from here if they manage to execute.

Consider the coming production increases:

1. Currently Producing: 60,000 ounces from Manh Choh

2. ~3 Years: 40-50,000 ounces from Lucky Shot

3. ~4 Years: 100,000 GEOs from Johnson Tract

So there’s a 4 year (call it 5 to be conservative) plan to get Contango up to 200,000 gold-equivalent ounces (GEOs as above).

And that’s before factoring the new crown jewel Kitsault Valley, which if you base it on reasonable BC peers will likely end up with a mine plan averaging somewhere in the range of at least 200-250,000 GEOs (roughly half silver) all on its own.

To sum it up then, the vision here (as things stand1) is for Contango in the next 5-7 years or so to become a 400-450,000 GEO (~1/2 gold, ~1/3 silver) North America-focused precious metals producer.2

Note here that North American-only producer Hecla does about 430,000 GEOs annually (about 2:1 silver:gold) with a market cap of US$12.4 billion.

Contango, meanwhile, currently sports a market cap of about US$0.7 billion.

That huge gap in market caps tells the story of the potential here all on its own, does it not?

Even assuming Contango doubles its float from here in executing on this vision (remember here the significant cash flow they already have and the lower-up-front-costs of their DSO model), achieving Hecla-sized production and valuation is still nearly a 10X from here for Contango.

Execution Risk

This is the hinge upon which Contango turns. They have the projects and they have the plan. Can they execute?

And based on the quality of the team here (they’ve done it all before) and aided by the pre-selection criteria and nature of the DSO model3 that by design filters out significant project risks, execution risk feels low here.

And don’t underplay how much the merger with Dolly Varden - bringing in both the team and the project - has upgraded this company. Kitsault Valley and the knowledge of the DV team fundamentally transforms Contango.

The Interview

I pepper Rick with a few different topics this time, covering different aspects of the merger, the impact of rising fuel prices on Contango (quick and dirty cheat math: a 25% increase in fuel results in roughly a 2.5% increase in OpEx), some clarification on recent 2026 guidance numbers (stockpiling and patch processing explains it), and Rick ends it with an effective summary of Contango’s plans to significantly advance all four of its current key projects this year as all projects remain on track for rapid advancement to production.

Leave a comment

Conclusion

Read the summary for yourself below, but this remains an obvious long-term buy for me. Maybe not the explosive torque of smaller exploration plays, but as the dominoes continue to fall here in the coming months and years I firmly believe this has all the makings of a special success story in the market.

Thanks for reading.

-Matthew from JRI.

3. Written Summary

• Newly-named Contango Silver & Gold has completed the merger with Dolly Varden.

• Several projects being advanced simultaneously – lots of news.

00:45 Compare the DV merger with others you’ve been a part of.

• Both shareholder bases voted 99% in favour of it.

  • Clearly both investor bases believed this to be an accretive transaction.

• Contango was pleased to acquire a true silver asset.

• DV now has the cash flow and the experience to get Kitsault Valley (KV) into production.

• These mergers can sometimes pose a challenge because you have to combine two separate groups of people (investors and insiders).

  • This one has been seamless.

• Dolly Varden’s pre-existing focus on KV made it easy – they were able to onboard and maintain the existing drill and exploration plans without any delays or hiccups.

• Both companies were running with very lean teams to begin with so even though they’ve basically doubled the size of their team there isn’t any redundancy.

• $100 million in the bank, strong cash flow.

• Even though gold has come back from its all-time highs above $5600, it’s still far above the $3700 they budgeted for in their forecasts, and $3700 itself was a remarkably strong number for their bottom line.

03:45 Challenges combining two distinct investor bases.

• CTGO institutional and gold production, DV retail and silver exploration.

• They had some turnover, but again, those 99% vote counts shows pretty clear support for CTGO’s vision.

• Arbitration played on CTGO as well as DV responded to silver and CTGO stood separate as a gold producer.

• The only real hiccough he felt was getting upgraded to the TSX big board.

  • Took a few more rounds of work than he had been told would be necessary.

  • But that’s dealt with now too, so everything is done and moving forward again.

06:00 Why the need for a Canadian ticker.

• There are definite regional tendencies to investing.

• Canada is of course a major mining investment hub so adding exposure made sense.

  • A lot of Canadian institutions have charters which mandate buying only Canadian listings.

• International investors of course don’t worry about if it is US or Canadian-listed.

09:00 Do you risk “losing some credit” for KV now that it’s part of a bigger package?

• Not worried about it. There is still just too much value to add at KV.

  • First step is to put out an updated resource, which is planned for June.

  • That will be followed by 40,000 meters of drilling at KV.

    • Most of those 40,000 meters will go towards infill and definition drilling with a focus on the polymet, southern part of the district – Torbrit, North Star, and Dolly Varden (all historic mines).

      • Those historic mines were operated under basically a DSO model – the ore was trucked elsewhere.

        • No mill. No tailings. No legacy environmental issues.

        • But they still get the advantage of historic infrastructure (roads etc).

    • Still lots of exploration and discovery potential too, though.

      • Homestake, Homestake Silver, Wolf (and also in and around the previously-mentioned deposits).

• There’s multiple layers of development happening at KV.

  • The goal is to have a PEA out by this time next year.

    • Will likely occur in stages – south end of the valley is more “shovel ready”.

      • North end would require roads etc to be built.

  • Forward-looking statement, but they anticipate 60+ million ounces of silver at 300-350 g/t Ag grade from DV, North Star, Torbrit.

  • Remember it is also on the water. Nothing in that valley is inaccessible.

    • Water remains a key advantage when it comes to DSO model.

• KV is a very large property. They haven’t explored most of it yet.

  • Not to mention the other properties they have in the southern golden triangle now.

    • Porter is another former mine they now control. It had an average grade of 1,200 g/t Ag.

      • Plan is to drill that too.

15:00 How much does the rising price of oil impact CTGO?

• Certainly been a question they’ve fielded a few times.

  • There obviously is a direct impact.

• However, they have not been impacted yet: Kinross buys its fuel well ahead of time.

  • They will end up exposed to new/higher fuel prices some time in the second half of the year.

• Rough numbers for people to do their own napkin math with:

  • Transportation is about 1/3 of their overall costs, and

  • Fuel is about 1/3 of their transportation costs.

    • That translates to about 9-10% of their costs are fuel.

      • So if their AISC is $1500, their fuel is about $150 of that.

        • So a 25% increase in fuel costs would push their overall AISC from $1500 to $1530 (using $1500 AISC as a simplified number to aid in easy math).

        • So a definite impact, but nothing remarkably dramatic.

        • Of course, price at the pump has gone up, meaning exploration – rigs, helicopters, everything else, has gone up too, but that is a much smaller overall impact.

        • Remember though that they budgeted for $3700 gold. They’re way above their baseline spot as-is.

19:15 Question on Guidance - Discrepancy in 2026 #s

• Difference between ounces mined and produced.

  • It’s a matter of how the batch processing happens with their JV with Kinross.

  • Their processing campaign happens in the middle month of every quarter.

    • There’s essentially a four month lag between mining and milling.

• They expect more tonnes but slightly lower grade this year.

  • High grade is backloaded due to pre-stripping required that is ongoing.

• But of course it pays off in 2027 when they have a big run of high-grade to mine (avg. ~5.6 g/t in 2025 up to 8.1 g/t in 2027).

22:45 Final Thoughts

• This year is all about execution.

  • Aggressive drill programs this year.

  • “We’ve got the money, we’ve got the team, let’s get the drills turning”.

• Lucky Shot

  • Will get an 18,000m drill program that is ~1/3 complete.

  • Goal is to get the FS for LS out by this time next year.

    • Aiming for 40-50k annual ounces.

  • Johnson Tract

    • 2026 is mostly permitting related.

      • Been very impressed by Fast-41.

        • Remains on schedule.

• At KV

  • MRE out by end of June.

    • 40,000m drill program will start as soon as the snow clears.

    • 5 rigs on site.

      • Most of the drilling will go to infill the high-grade at Dolly Varden, North Star and Torbrit

• Lots of news flow. Lots of high-grade drill results to come.

Disclaimer

The content found in the JuniorResourceInvesting podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. The information provided is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we are not responsible for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. We are not registered investment advisors. It is based on opinions, SEDAR+ filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and JuniorResourceInvesting offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on JuniorResourceInvesting or our videos. We may hold equity positions in some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. Similarly, we may have been compensated by the company we interviewed for this episode, which is also an obvious conflict of interest. I work hard to be independent, objective, and selective, but you should be critical of my work. JuniorResourceInvesting may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on JuniorResourceInvesting is to be used at your own risk. By following JuniorResourceInvesting, you agree to hold JuniorResourceInvesting, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred. Rights to all images remain with original owner.

tl;dr:

This one is in a very exciting spot. With initial results now released, Cosa Resources (COSA.V) finds itself potentially on the verge of another major discovery. On a single section on its Murphy Lake North project, Cosa has pulled up all the hallmarks of a classic high-grade Athabasca uranium discovery on this land acquired as part of their 70:30 JV partnership with Denison Mines.

With the first-ever five holes drilled into this target, Cosa has now discovered a large structural corridor with significant faulted graphitic units in the basement, long runs of tell-tale alteration running from deep into the basement up into the sandstone, and even high-grade radioactivity, with an impressive preliminary reading of up to 13,900 CPS.

Cosa now believes they could be on the fringe of a larger system similar to the famous high-grade Hurricane deposit (located on-trend and just a few km away from Murphy Lake North) that the Cosa team was instrumental in discovering. Indeed, as VP Corporate Development Justin Rodko states in our discussion, there are many exciting parallels between the early days of both projects that makes Cosa “cautious but incredibly excited”.

1. Interview

Index

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03:45 Walk us through the results to date.
06:30 How does the size of this compare to Hurricane?
09:00 Early thoughts on plans for next drill campaign?
12:15 Final thoughts from Justin.

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2. Companion Article

As far as I can tell this is one of the most compelling stories in the market right now. Here’s a (very) brief timeline of events to take us to our position:

1. Under the banner of IsoEnergy, Cosa’s current team were key players in the 2018 discovery of the famous Hurricane deposit, which drove Iso from $0.30 to over $6.00 (pre-rollback). Hurricane, of course, remains the highest-grade indicated uranium resource in the entire world.

2. Those key players get the band back together and restart fresh as Cosa Resources.

3. Cosa signs a deal with $5B U developer Denison mines, assuming a 70% stake in three Denison properties, along with Denison assuming a ~19% stake in Cosa.

4. Just over a year since acquiring it, Cosa has now published some remarkable results out of its Murphy Lake North (MLN) project that are the focus of this update.

To give a different perspective on Cosa, VP of Corporate Development Justin Rodko sat down with me rather than usual victim CEO Keith Bodnarchuk to discuss these results out of MLN and why Cosa believes they have potentially lanced the fringes of a larger mineralised system similar to that same Hurricane deposit.1

The evidence Cosa has provided is indeed pretty clear-cut, and, when you get your head wrapped around what the rocks are telling you, awfully exciting.

They’ve clearly tagged into what looks to be the edge a very large system. Tell-tale haloes of alteration created by a classic Athabasca uranium system are not only present, but large, stretching dozens of meters into the basement (which Justin noted as deeper than he’s previously seen). What’s more, the alteration remains open to both the south and north on section.

A wide, 100+ meter structural corridor has been identified with stacked graphitic units again that smoking gun that the geological processes you need to have happened have indeed happened. It’s far too early to know how big this system is, but the scale of alteration discovered in this round of drilling is certainly encouraging.

The faults they intersected also mirror Hurricane, where as you moved away from the deposit a series of parallel faults splay out away from it.

Hurricane’s relatively shallow depth - some 300-330 meters down - is considered a strength of it. So MLN’s depth of some 260m is all the more impressive in that context.

Take a look at the cross section below to get a sense visually of what they have (and note that further down I have a side-by-side comparison of early Hurricane and this MLN section):

And indeed, the true cherry on top, Cosa also managed to intersect the true goal- a fairly impressive run of radioactive mineralisation. Chemical assays pending, but MLN has revealed CPS values that are directly comparable to the fringe of the Hurricane deposit. 5m of >1,000 CPS containing 0.5m of >13,000 CPS are remarkably strong results to come out of the first handful of holes on a brand new target.

Take a look at the charts below. The first comes from the Cosa news release, where I’ve highlighted the key holes and intercepts. The second is something I made myself, comparing hole MLN26-013 to Hurricane’s discovery hole. Note that CPS numbers come with no guarantees while we await chemical assays, but broadly speaking the two holes compare quite well.

As an illustrative aid, below is a plan view drill hole location map of Iso’s Hurricane deposit from mid-2021. Note the dotted lines representing faults spread east from the dark orange high grade core. I have circled (for representative purposes only) in blue a fringe region of Hurricane this current cross-section could hypothetically fit into. I do this not to predict future grades, but to help visually demonstrate the theoretical larger system (and where they are currently within it) Cosa interprets themselves to be within.

Conclusion

The search in earnest begins from here for Cosa. And they excitingly have a whole lot of prospective territory along strike. Indeed, there is some 600m of undrilled land on either side of these results to explore within for them now. And for reference, the high-grade domain of Hurricane that carries some 9% of the resource is only some 130m long.

Justin (and the rocks) make the case well. These were excitingly positive results. Yes, these are early days and there is work to be done here, as Justin stresses himself. But, again, to echo Justin - the hard part has been done. They have proven this trend in MLN hosts high-grade mineralization. Now they need to get into the data and keep going and see how big the treasure is.

Make no mistake, this team is aggressively hunting for huge discoveries and these results critically and excitingly support those aspirations. True high-grade uranium discoveries are one of the most potent drill-based catalysts in this entire sector. They are rare and highly sought after. And Cosa has now proven they have clear blue sky potential.

I can’t decide for you your own risk tolerance. This is early stage exploration. As deep as the pool gets in this sector. But this is one you need to be watching extremely closely. If what they believe could be down there truly is, Cosa is at the start of a huge, multi-year valuation rerating (if IsoEnergy - see chart in written summary below- is a reliable indicator). And that’s why this remains one of my top picks.

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3. Written Summary

Intro – Results out of Murphy Lake North

• Drilled a section of holes across the trend.

• Pretty exciting results – lots of alteration, some high-grade uranium (CPS).

• All the hallmarks of a classic Athabasca discovery.

Justin Intro:

• Only had MLN for a year and they’ve already discovered high-grade mineralisation.

• History in the area of discovery by the Cosa team.

  • Hurricane deposit discovered just a few km away.

• Interpreting that Cosa has hit onto a bigger system that is “very similar” to what they drilled at Hurricane in the early days.

  • Hurricane being the highest-grade U deposit in the world that the Cosa team played a key role in discovering while working at IsoEnergy.

• They have 600m of strike in either direction to explore in – lots and lots of room for a major discovery.

• There’s something potentially very special here.

03:45 Walk us Through the Results to Date

• Again, lots of similarities to early days of Hurricane.

• Basement geology – there are these stacked graphitic faults in both separated by semipelite rocks (with lots of clay alteration) that is driving all the structure and alteration up into the sandstone as part of the uranium mineralising system.

• It is quite large already- lateral extent is 100-125m wide and still open.

  • This is because you need these very large structural corridors moving huge amounts of fluids from deep in the basement to up to near-surface to ultimately produce these deposits.

• Alteration in the basement is still open at depth (and already quite deep).

• Alteration projects up into the unconformity to the south that also remains open.

• The fringes of Hurricane looks very similar to this set of results.

  • Fringes of Hurricane splays out away from the deposit into multiple discrete parallel faults (like what is seen in the graphitic intrusion into the basement here.

06:30 How does the size of this compare to Hurricane

• Too early to really speak with confidence.

• There is definitely a general formula to how these Athabasca deposits occur, but then there are always unique aspects to each one as well.

  • The alteration deep into the basement in hole 17 is unique in Justin’s experience.

  • For example, they intersected a quartzite unit in the footwall geology that wasn’t present at Hurricane.

    • But MacArthur River mine famously does have a very large quartzite unit to it.

CPS – What it is and its limitations.

• Results that are read on-site/pre-chemical assays.

• Counts Per Second – simply recording the anomalous radioactivity readings in context of background readings.

• Can fairly safely assume in context of Athabasca that any radioactive readings in this context will be U.

• But “a count is not a count”. Too many variables in play:

  • Different tools have different accuracies.

  • How you use a tool can impact its readings.

  • How old/used a tool is or even the size of the crystal it uses can result in changes to readings.

• Basically CPS is an important data point to acquire in U exploration but there is too wide a band of variables to try to seriously assess and report true grade from. Unless you’ve experienced core loss, it is way better to just wait for assays.

• You can take time and build a correlation curve on CPS vs chemical assay results, but it is a lot of work when you can just wait for assays and get the real numbers.

09:00 Early thoughts on plans for next drill campaign?

• Rig left on site to facilitate quick turn around to be drilling ASAP in early June.

• Will there be more formulaic section/fence step-outs or going after specific targets?

  • Good question but too early to say with confidence.

  • With only a single section/single data point of drilling they don’t even know which way to vector along strike yet.

• There will likely be step outs and specific targets drilled but too early to say anything.

• Need to develop their internal analytical results further (and also receive the chemical assays) before making any major decisions.

• But the biggest hurdle has been cleared. They have proven that the trend hosts mineralisation. Extremely exciting results.

• Now it’s just back to business for them. They excel at good science and are going to stay patient and continue their methodical approach.

12:15 Final Thoughts from Justin

• Cosa team is cautiously incredibly optimistic.

• A savvy investor would go back and look at some of the early work they did at Hurricane in 2018/2019 and compare to what they’re seeing now at MLN.

  • Hurricane is a monster, famous for grade.

  • Once they entered the high-grade domain of Hurricane in February of 2020, Iso went from 30 cents to over $6 (pre-consolidation).

• Great opportunity here for follow-up drill programs to have a huge impact on their company.

• Just want to let the results speak for themselves.

Disclaimer

The content found in the JuniorResourceInvesting podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. The information provided is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we are not responsible for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. We are not registered investment advisors. It is based on opinions, SEDAR+ filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and JuniorResourceInvesting offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on JuniorResourceInvesting or our videos. We may hold equity positions in some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. Similarly, we may have been compensated by the company we interviewed for this episode, which is also an obvious conflict of interest. I work hard to be independent, objective, and selective, but you should be critical of my work. JuniorResourceInvesting may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on JuniorResourceInvesting is to be used at your own risk. By following JuniorResourceInvesting, you agree to hold JuniorResourceInvesting, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred. Rights to all images remain with original owner.

tl;dr:

Thesis Gold & Silver (TAU.V) continues to put out major headlines and CEO Ewan Webster joined me for some additional insight on some recent news.

First, a major development with Anglo Gold Ashanti taking up a 5% stake in Thesis, signaling pretty clearly the caliber of project Lawyers Ranch is.

But Thesis also generated some exciting exploration news, releasing for the first time a preliminary overview of their interpreted porphyry systems. If either of those separate targets come good this somewhere, this already exceptional project could suddenly see its potential increase substantially.

Video interview, article, and written summary below.

1. Interview

Time Stamps

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03:00 Advantages of Multiple Strategics
05:30 Porphyry Exploration Targets
11:30 Meterage Planned

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2. Companion Article

This one remains one of my key picks and ongoing favourites, even after the great run it has already had. There’s just too much value in the ground here - both proven and further potential - for Thesis to not continue to push higher as it advances towards a FS. And I feel like the two news updates discussed this time around with Thesis CEO Ewan Webster nicely captures this idea:

• First, Anglo Gold Ashanti Stakes a 5% Stake in Thesis Gold.

• Second, Thesis Officially Releases Two Porphyry System Exploration Targets.

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1. A Major Takes a Stake
   

   First, this Anglo Gold Ashanti news is big time. They produce 3+ million ounces of gold annually (good for 6th globally) and have nearly 120 million ounces on their books in some form. But their presence in Canada was essentially non-existent up until the past few months, when they suddenly shifted strategy and began buying significant stakes in a couple big Canadian development projects.

   
   Which is clearly an impressive get for Thesis, no? You have a world-leading gold
   name entering into Canada for the first time ever. Tabula Rasa. Clean slate. They’ve got their pick of basically any project they want a piece of in the 4th largest gold-producing nation in the world. And they choose Lawyers Ranch.
   
   Not to lay it on too thick, but what other evidence do you need that this is a top notch project? There just doesn’t get much more confirmation of conviction than this type of update for a project. The runway for Thesis from here remains long and wide open as it advances towards FS and, later, construction decision and production.
   

2. Porphyry Plans

   

   I’ve been waiting for this announcement for a while. Going after the necessarily-underlying porphyry of Lawyers Ranch has always been on Thesis’ long term exploration plans. However, the immediate task of getting the existing discoveries ready for the PEA-PFS-FS pipeline was always the (understandable) priority over the past few years.

   
   But now, with Lawyers Ranch nearing its final FS stage and (extremely capable) Dr. Evan Orovan firmly entrenched as Chief Geologist, they’re at long last transitioning time and energy to sorting out the porphyry potential of their land.
   
   You will recall here that the Toodoggone region has been a sector darling of late thanks Amarc’s own spectacular porphyry AuRORA discovery right next door to Thesis. This has sparked a good run of speculation amongst Thesis’ little brother companies in the region. And now it’s Thesis’ turn to take a crack at their own Toodoggone porphyry discovery, with all the strength of Centerra and Anglo Gold Ashanti behind them.

   
   Two separate areas of interest have been announced - the Steve Zone and Molly Corridor collectively and then also Ranch East - that show clear geological evidence of a porphyry environment:
   
   Molly and Steve are interpreted as being on top of the transition zone from the lithocap environment (which hosts Ranch-style deposits) down into the magmatic porphyry intrusion. Separately, Ranch East excitingly is interpreted as being within the porphyry core itself.

So under one ticker you’ve got a high-quality, advanced project that should continue to see upwards rerating pressure as it continually demands higher valuation multiples while advancing through FS, funding, and an inevitable construction decision, but then also has clear and exciting blue sky discovery potential totally separate from that high-quality, advanced project. Potential they are just now turning their attention to.

It’s quite the one-two punch, and an important reason why I remain long and excited about Thesis Gold over the coming years. Some high-risk plays are worth it, but need to be watched very closely. Not here. Loads of potential with greatly reduced comparative risk. Great project and exciting potential. Great team. Strong jurisdiction. Clear community and formal First Nation support.

Easy long.

Written summary of my chat with Ewan below.

3. Written Summary

Intro

• Major Updates out of Thesis Gold and Silver

  • 1. Anglo Gold Ashanti enters as a new strategic.

    • Bought 5% of TAU at $2.79/share for about $39 million.

    • Centerra took the opportunity to maintain their own 9.9% stake, bringing in another $6 million more, roughly.

  • 2. Exploration update on their porphyry targets.

    • Two different potential porphyries identified with pretty compelling evidence.

Anglo Gold Ashanti

• Big name – 6^th largest gold producer in the world.

• Huge validation of the project.

• Lawyers-Ranch in its current state is essentially a base case scenario.

  • There is so much exploration upside here.

• Ewan is seeing increasing interest from different potential investors for safe, stable jurisdictions.

• Anglo Gold is entering the Canadian market and looking to get a toehold with a few projects.

• How long has this been in the works?

  • Been chatting with the for a couple years now.

  • Started informally. Progress updates at conferences.

  • As Thesis continued to deliver on their vision, Anglo Gold became increasingly engaged/serious.

  • Once they announced the intent to enter Canada, it quickly became much more serious.

03:00 Advantages of Multiple Strategics

• Better than one. Makes for a more competitive arrangement.

• Neither of them having a controlling position is also critical.

• Doesn’t change anything in terms of Thesis’ own plans.

• Their various areas of expertise (geology, permitting, etc.) have been invaluable.

• Ewan feels the two approach Lawyers Ranch a little differently.

  • Centerra obviously aware of local synergies.

  • Anglo is looking to enter Canada and wants exposure to projects they identify as fitting their criteria – good economics but also with tonnes of upside.

    • Maybe not at Anglo’s size right now, but with continued exploration success could get there. Again, there is big growth upside.

05:30 Porphyry Exploration Targets

• Two: Steve Zone and Molly Corridor and then also Ranch East

  • Ranch East.

    • Staked by Thesis some time ago.

    • Contains the right rocks to make it prospective for porphyry systems.

    • Rocks at surface are those found in the deeper core of a porphyry environment.

    • Not quite drill ready, but will be for the summer campaign.
      

  • Molly Corridor and Steve Zone

    • Interpreted as the transition zone higher up in the porphyry environment at the base of the lithocap from the epithermal to the magmatic porphyry environments.

• Lithocap is where you find high-sulph, Ranch-style deposits.

• But they also have immense amount of more traditional exploration upside too.

  • Steve Zone for example has revealed some excellent results they want to follow up on.

  • Too test porphyry beneath Steve, they’ll likely just let holes run long.

  • Look at Centerra’s Kemess or the Aurora discovery by Amarc and Freeport for district comps.

11:30 Meterage Planned

• Not 100% sure on size, and not target specific yet.

• Ranch East has a bit more above ground work to do in the early summer.

• Likely 7-10,000m in Geotech and hydromet work testing.

  • 2 rigs working on that early in the season.

  • That’s the last bit of data needed to collect for the FS.

• Then there will be 2 other rigs working on exploration.

  • Aiming roughly for 10,000 meters off it.

• So expect roughly 20,000 meters combined.

  • Big pipeline of earlier-stage projects they continue to advance to drill ready status as well.

And that’s it. Thanks for reading.

-Matthew from JRI

Disclaimer

The content found in the JuniorResourceInvesting podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. The information provided is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we are not responsible for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. We are not registered investment advisors. It is based on opinions, SEDAR+ filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and JuniorResourceInvesting offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on JuniorResourceInvesting or our videos. We may hold equity positions in some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. Similarly, we may have been compensated by the company we interviewed for this episode, which is also an obvious conflict of interest. I work hard to be independent, objective, and selective, but you should be critical of my work. JuniorResourceInvesting may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on JuniorResourceInvesting is to be used at your own risk. By following JuniorResourceInvesting, you agree to hold JuniorResourceInvesting, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred. Rights to all images remain with original owner.

tl;dr:

My latest sit-down with Founders Metals (FDR.V) CEO Colin Padget. Founders is now exploring and upgrading its recently-acquired lands and building up a new, exciting, suite of drill targets that rival the best of their original package that drove their original run from $0.30 to $6.00. With heavy news flow continuing, Founders is building up critical mass and has everything needed to spark another discovery-based rerating - one that feels a question of “when” not “if”.

Interview, article, and summary below.

1. Interview

Time Stamps

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00:30 Lower Antino Drill Results
03:00 Size of LA
05:00 Antino North – Exploration preview
08:15 How do these results compare to original lands?
11:30 How much is the new land supplanting the old?
12:30 Maria Geralda
16:00 2026 Rig count and meterage?
17:30 What Qs are you getting from investors these days?
20:00 Final Thoughts and News to Come in 2026

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2. Companion Article

My latest Founders piece covers a lot of ground, just as Founders itself continues to at its newly-embiggened1 Antino project in southeastern Suriname. Note it took me a week or two longer than I usually do to get this interview out, and in that time Founders has just added to the always-growing pile of substantial news releases, so I’ll work to touch on them as well.

The above headline screengrab captures it well, but to recap what CEO Colin Padget and I cover (plus the news since) here’s a brief overview:

• Lower Antino (LA) Results: LA continues to grow into a multi-square km mineralised system with long, consistent intervals.

• Antino North (AN) Results: AN is currently seeing its first-ever drilling and has already returned exciting drill results, capped by 17+ g/t over 3.6m.

  • AN has some truly impressive auger anomalies - one range of shear zones returning multiple 40-70 g/t samples.

  • Another AN auger anomaly is the largest in the whole property (some 5+km in length/300+ha of 0.1+ g/t Au mineralisation.

• New Land: Colin in general emphasised the importance he expanded land package has remarkable potential and Founders is in

• GDXJ Inclusion: FDR’s inclusion in the GDXJ will have many benefits - increased institutional exposure in the form of both passive buying and also meeting stricter DD benchmarks held by family funds.

• Gold Fields Buys More FDR: Gold Fields bought more FDR shares through a cross trade in the market at an average price of $4.15, increasing its ownership from 10.9% to 12.5%.

If you’re looking for my take on things beyond summarising my conversation with Colin, I’d emphasise what he phrased as “dollars and drill bits”. Many people say they have land with immense potential. Some actually do. But even if they do end up with a tiger by the tail, very few junior explore cos have the size and scale needed to actually conquer their land package effectively and meaningfully. I’ll explain.

Founders remains as it always has a special story. The Guyana greenstone belt remains one of - if not the - premiere emerging gold regions in the world. And Founders has positioned itself as a leading player in this region, with a contiguous land package now stretching some 50 km in length, with reported gold showings from local prospecting, minor local production, historic modern exploration all along the way.

In the new northern lands where Founders has chose to begin, a mineralised footprint twice the size of famous regional big brother deposit Oko West is neighboured to the NE by a grouping of at least 11 different shear zones that have returned gridwork auger samples of 50, 60, even 70+ g/t gold. And Founders has also of course now announced initial drill results highlighted by 17.22m over 3.6m.

And the original property continues to demand attention as well. Lower Antino is proving to be big, broad, deep, and consistent, with free dig oxides intact. Buese is similar, with impressive spans of consistent grade, but with high grade pockets within it. And Upper Antino of course remains the crown jewel with substantial, ongoing, high grade potential remaining. The point is Founders has 10? 12? more? satellite targets deserving of significant meterage right now, many of which could easily be their own flagship project in a smaller company.

And that’s setting aside all the many dozens of individual showings, workings, anomalies, and other key indicators Founders has now collected under its Antino umbrella in its expanded land package. It truly is an immense amount of land and potential. To properly explore it will be a massive undertaking and would be frankly too much for most juniors.

And that, ultimately, is my point - Founders has what it takes to do it all, aggressively and quickly.

Founders has the market cap, the budget, the financial support (starting with Gold Fields and B2 but by no means limited to them) and the team to execute on an extremely ambitious exploration program and rapidly expand this property from corner to corner.

Four rigs turning with plans for six. Multiple rigs each dedicated to systematic infill and discovery drilling across some 30km of trend currently operating. Fully funded 70,000 meters drilled minimum, with expectation of more. Global auger sampling grids of increasing granularity being layered with multiple geophysical studies.

My point is, I think people are sleeping on how quickly this story could change from here. They’ve clearly established a floor in their valuation after trading sideways this past year. Now they’ve got new land and are targeting anomalies every bit as good as the best the original Antino property had to offer.

This stock has the feeling that there is critical mass growing behind it. The float has no doubt turned over. Big names keep cutting cheques. The transition to a larger land package and expanded mutli-phase exploration is done. Now I feel that it’s just a strong, new catalyst (like high-grade drill results from newly-acquired, never-before-drilled lands?) away from sparking another rerating surge.

Exploration is at its core a bit of a numbers game. You might have a great deposit lurking on your property and a great technical team looking for it, but are you going to find it on your first drill target or your 10th? And, more to the point, can you find it before the market decides to stop funding your efforts?

That existential risk of junior explorers seems basically removed here. Founders has the cash, the institutional support, the team, and the land to have basically unlimited kicks at the can here to drive further success. Pair that with the technical strength of their geo team and Founders is in a uniquely enviable position.

And thus, with the obvious endowment potential of their newly-enlarged Antino project and such an impressive ability to explore it, that next great discovery to finally spark the next rerating for Founders feels firmly a “when”, not an “if” to me. (And if they’re already starting to publish impressive results out of Antino North, how much longer do you think it will be?)

Otherwise, read on below for the summary of my chat with Colin, as he (as always) provides frank and informative answers to my questions.

Thanks for reading.

-Matthew

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3. Written Summary

00:30 Lower Antino (LA) Drill Results

• Upper Antino’s (UA) grades – 15m of 30 g/t Au for example – are a tough act to follow.

  • However, LA is a separate type of mineralisation than UA.

  • LA is a big system just 3.5km away from UA.

• Having high and low grade material provides a lot of options for any future milling scenario.

• Recent results – 115m of 0.83 g/t is a “pretty fantastic” hit.

  • That includes the ~50m free dig, surface oxide material still intact, too.

• Big, broad, consistent mineralisation. Great for mining.

Size of LA

• They’ve fairly methodically proved up 1km of infilled strike at this point.

• However, the larger system has intersected mineralisation along strike for well over 2km and the system is about 1km across.

• Hosted in tonalitic intrusions, which make for this very broad, consistent system from surface. Which means very low strip.

05:00 Antino North – Exploration preview

• Some very large historic auger anomalies in the north.

• The one anomaly – originally mapped by Canarc in the early 2000s – is the largest anomaly on the entire land package and has never been drilled.

  • 300 hectares greater than 0.1 g/t Au. That’s very, very big.

• In an area further north they are pulling up 50,60, 70 g/t Au channel samples.

  • That area was initially discovered because a local prospector came to them with the lead.

    • Example of how they positively work with locals.

  • They’ve now identified 11 different shear zones in that trend with some (still widely-spaced) auger grid work.

    • Have just nicely started to drill it.

  • Will work their way through them with the rig then come back for a more targeted second pass with round 1 drill data.

08:15 How do these results compare to original lands?

• Comparing the historic work FDR inherited on both, they are the same caliber/quality.

• They have surface work sampling done. Geophys nearly done.

• From boots on the ground initial discovery to drill it is only taking them about two months right now.

• They have road access up into North Antino, which helps of course.

• Lots of companies say they have exclusive control over a greenstone belt.

  • Not all actually do.

  • And of those who actually do, they often aren’t big enough to actually explore it effectively.

• Founders has 1000 square km of some of the most prospective greenstone belt in the world, and the capacity to advance effectively the entire thing at will.

11:30 How much is the new land supplanting the old?

• People ask if they are just “chasing shiny things”?

  • There’s a “do you risk getting distracted?” narrative.

• Disagrees. It’s the same sequential process no matter where in the property it is.

• Ranking hierarchy factors haven’t changed.

  • Is there scale and is there grade.

• Ending up with high priority targets out of the new land package is the whole point of acquiring new land.

• There are lots of areas in the original property they remain excited to drill.

  • But when you’re getting 70 g/t out of channel and auger samples, that needs to become a priority target, for example.

Maria Geralda

• Example of one they need to return to.

  • Great hits they haven’t fully figured out yet.

• Even though they may not be drilling some other targets, they’re still advancing them in the background.

• MG, for example they’ve realised is more easterly trending than the rest of the properties which seem more NE oriented.

• But the highlight hit there 22 meters of 12 g/t Au near surface – that doesn’t just occur in isolation.

  • Deserves a lot of follow-up, it’s just competing with a 5km auger anomaly right now.

16:00 2026 Rig count and meterage?

• Started the year messaging 70,000 meters split 50/50 between advanced targets and grass roots exploration.

• 3-4 rigs operating at once is a good rhythm for their team right now.

  • They are planning to mobilise two more rigs here soon.

  • That means the program likely grows from the original 70k estimate.

• They have the dollars and drills to move as aggressively as they want.

17:30 What Qs are you getting from investors these days?

• Many you have touched on.

• A big one is: What are you doing about that big hole in the middle of your land package. (Benzdorp)

  • Plans remain in place to acquire it. Working on it in the background.

• The other big one is when they are planning the initial resource.

  • They’re in no rush. There’s just too much potential for drill-based catalysts to to begin that process.

  • Upper and Lower Antino will both for sure be included in the future resource.

20:00 Final Thoughts and News to Come in 2026

• Drilling will of course be the main news source.

• But there’s lots happening otherwise too.

  • Environmental Baseline Work has just been completed in the area around UA, LA, and Buese.

  • Most juniors wouldn’t start so early but glad they did – gives them a leg up.

• Advanced metallurgy work on UA, beginning met work on LA.

  • Opportunity potentially for blending.

• But really just all exploration. Drilling, prep work across the property.

That’s it for today. More work on the way. As always. Passion projects to come in the summer.

Disclaimer

The content found in the JuniorResourceInvesting podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. The information provided is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we are not responsible for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. We are not registered investment advisors. It is based on opinions, SEDAR+ filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and JuniorResourceInvesting offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on JuniorResourceInvesting or our videos. We may hold equity positions in some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. Similarly, we may have been compensated by the company we interviewed for this episode, which is also an obvious conflict of interest. I work hard to be independent, objective, and selective, but you should be critical of my work. JuniorResourceInvesting may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on JuniorResourceInvesting is to be used at your own risk. By following JuniorResourceInvesting, you agree to hold JuniorResourceInvesting, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred. Rights to all images remain with original owner.

tl;dr:
This is one I followed a couple years back. Ticker SEND.V. It rocketed on speculation in the lead-up in early 2024, but then crashed up against outsized expectations despite a couple quite respectable holes.

And yeah, I took the L, as they say, a bit with it. Even with a 70% peak from my first call, the 90% crash after soured the fruit a bit. But the project itself never really lost its shine to me. There still seemed like an awful lot of potential at Peñas Negras, situated a few km away, along trend, and in the same geological setting as some of the Lundin family giants in the famous Vicuña district.

And so here we are today, and a new team has gotten a hold of Sendero and now, with cash, solid backing, a new geological model, and they’re currently drilling. This is a high impact discovery story led by experienced, respected, successful industry players.

Director of Corporate Development Jeremy Gillis joined me to introduce the new, improved, Sendero, and why they are one of the most undervalued potential discovery plays going.

1. Interview

Index

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01:15 Jeremy reintroduces Peñas Negras
04:45 Jeremy’s Background and Work With Sendero
11:00 What happened at Sendero previously?
18:00 Who is the new leadership team?
27:15 Peter Marrone – His involvement. Yamana Gold connection?
30:15 Drill Campaign Details

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2. Companion Article

Here’s a comeback story that’s an interesting one personally for me. Sendero Resources (SEND.V). If you’ve read me for a while, you’ll recognise this name as I’ve covered it before.

I initially shoulder-tapped Sendero as a compelling discovery play during the lead-up to its maiden drill campaign in the winter of 2023-24. It was obviously exciting, and indeed still is, neighbouring as it does the Lundin-dominated, world-leading copper+ porphyry giants of the Vicuña District of Argentina.

And the run up to drill results was pretty good (especially in what was a very tough market at the time) streaking from 25-45 cents or so after I tapped it as an opportunity. The drill campaign itself spread its limited meterage across several targets. And on the final target especially - La Ollita - it seemed to have paid off.

Yes, they were anticipating copper and it actually gave back (from just 34m down) some 354m of 0.5g/t Au, but that’s still a pretty good hole. Low grade, yes, but massive lengths and fairly consistent. Basically a great example of what a porphyry system can offer. And so I thought they had done it. Yes they’d need to raise capital, but it seemed to me like Sendero got what they needed to be on their way.

But as it turned out, I completely misread the market, zigging when it chose to zag, and I stepped on a pretty good rake with it all. Sendero crashed hard and the company was basically wiped out and rebooted.

So what happened?

As always, it was a confluence of several factors. Too much hype and promotion. Expensive choices that left the company unable to service all its obligations (debt, expensive land option). A geological model in need of further refinement. A drill campaign that was a bit “spray and pray” across multiple targets and left no margin for error. There’s a few reasons for the crash, but crash it did, and it got the feeling of being a bit of a Vancouver Special.

How does it rank for me? On the one hand, I can highlight the 70-80% cent run I helped my followers access. But my core MO is to avoid playing with pump and dumps and to cover only companies I believe have long-term staying power, and something clearly went wrong here from that framing.

I was - and still am - a believer in the geological potential of Peñas Negras. Down the road and along trend of some of the biggest porphyry discoveries this century with clear supporting geological evidence. But Sendero 1.0 had apparently ran its course and ended up trading all the way down into penny stock territory.

Sendero 2.0

But that was not the end of the story here. Since spring of 2024, a total revamp has taken place under the Sendero banner. New management. New backers. New float (10:1 rollback). New geological model. Indeed, seemingly the only thing that remains of Sendero 1.0 is the name and the property.

Industry professional Jeremy Gillis helped lead this rebuild and joined me recently to discuss both what happened and what is happening now at Sendero. I was impressed by Jeremy. Intelligent, experienced, unafraid to confront difficult topics head on and clearly dedicated to helping Sendero and Peñas Negras realise their potential.

And the rebuild has been well executed. Sendero’s share price has recovered from penny land and are nearly back to its IPO levels. Famous industry name Peter Marrone and other influential names in Argentine mining have been brought on board. Financial burdens have been lifted. A deep focus on rebuilding and deepening the geolgoical model in house was conducted. And cash enough to hit the ground with a drill again has been raised.

And that drill campaign is well under way at this point. 3600m of drilling. One newly-defined, never-drilled target that will either confirm or kill their working model.

This feels like a real shot at redemption. The geological potential has always been there, it was just a matter of getting the pieces in place to unearth that potential properly.

Jeremy framed his pitch for Sendero as the right rocks getting the right people in charge of them at the right time. And I’m inclined to agree.

This remains high-risk pre-discovery drilling. You need to determine your own risk profile in terms of where and when you choose to step in here. But make no mistake there is massive, massive potential here. World-leading porphyries are counted among their neighbours. Even if you wait for drill results, if Sendero has what they believe this has years of runway ahead of it.

For me, this is one of the top 3 or so pre-discovery plays I am watching right now. No hype or over-the-top promotion here. Just let the rocks do the talking. And if Jeremy and Sendero are right, they will have an awful lot to say.

Read the summary of my conversation with Jeremy below (roughly broken into two parts, with part 1 being “what happened” and "part 2 being “what’s happening now) or watch the interview itself above.

Thanks for reading.

-Matthew from JRI

Leave a comment

3. Written Summary

Overview

• Jeremy Gillis, Director Corp Dev and Capital Markets for Sendero Resources

• Drilling on the Peñas Negras porphyry project in world-famous Vicuña district with NGEx, Filo, etc. as neighours.

• JRI followed this project in the winter of 2023/24 the first time around and stepped on a rake a bit with it.

  • It had an excellent run but then had the balloon pop when final results failed to impress (even though I thought they were pretty good – 350m+ of 0.5+ g/t Au from surface).

01:15 Jeremy reintroduces Peñas Negras

• All the land in the region was owned by El Dorado gold in the 1990s who conducted introductory exploration on it.

• Sendero now controls 211 square kilometers

• “Right rocks, right people, right time.”

• Jeremy was involved in the first version of this company.

  • Believed in the property since looking at it in 2020.

• The claims blocks were assembled into what is now known as Peñas Negras between 2015-2019.

  • This was before Filo’s famed hole 41.

• First iteration of Sendero struggled to hit it with the drill bit properly.

  • However, they they did get the land, got it permitted, and ultimately pulled a pretty good intercept.

  • Now, Jeremy feels the right people are involved to make this happen finally.

• Many properties pass hands till the right people with the right ideas get on it and make the discovery.

04:45 Jeremy’s Background and Work With Sendero

• Spent 10+ years at Yamana Gold.

  • Left in 2019.

• Came across Sendero in 2020, helped finance it, and passed it off.

• Was a major SEND shareholder.

• Helped lead the transition into SEND 2.0.

• Got the support of Peter Marrone.

• With Peter’s support and buy-in, they changed management, changed board, refinanced, rollback (10:1).

• Inherited debt, a host province that was unhappy, and an unmanageable option agreement on half the land.

• Other junior explorers in the vicinity have much higher market caps and aren’t much more advanced.

• The final hole drilled from the spring 2024 campaign was solid – 354m of 0.5g/t Au from 34 meters down.

  • There is definitely a large system in play.

• They’ve been fortunate that gold has had such a run since spring of 2024. Changes this property in a big way.

• First exploration step for them was to take in all available data and build a plausible geological model.

  • They also plugged in data from their larger neighbours into their model.

  • Filo and Jose Maria and other major nearby projects start at surface before running as deep as they do.

    • Peñas Negras mirrors those deposits in many ways.

• They haven’t been overly promotional.

  • Realise the company ran into trouble previously in terms of investor attitudes.

11:00 What happened at Sendero previously?

• The final drill result (354m of 0.5 g/t) I thought was pretty good but the market disagreed strongly. Can you just discuss like what did happen? What do you feel was the culprit there?

• Wasn’t there so can only theorise, but his thoughts:

  • Cheap stock in the shell.

  • Not a well-structured shell to begin with.

  • Over-promoted and unrealistic expectations

  • Debt and expensive commitments

• People remain the most important aspect of any exploration company.

  • Jeremy could have made himself CEO of the company, but he wanted to build a team of strengths – corporate, exploration, etc.

  • Built it around asking “What will investors most benefit from”?

• Did a brokered financing (with increased scrutiny by said brokerage) to try to demonstrate credibility.

• No cheap stock. No vend-ins.

• Trading at 20% of what their peers are.

• The right people with the right data set have excellent chances at success.

• $6 million now to go drill.

18:00 Who is the new leadership team?

• Feel very fortunate for the team they have.

  • Directors are actively involved.

  • CEO Alex Gostevskikh is ex. Kinross, ex. Centerra

  • QP was with Ivanhoe and elsewhere.

• Try to do lots of things in-house.

  • Takes more time, but you also develop data intimacy and you understand the project so much better.

• Try to be very frugal with how they spend their money. Have cut back on costs.

• They’ve done the work needed to fix the company and the ticker.

  • Now they have $6 million and 26 million shares.

• They’ve put themselves in a position where if they succeed now the tight float will put tremendous demand on the price.

• Have got back to the IPO price, which feels good for him as he knows original investors at least are not down any more.

• Inherited some issues, but also lots of positives:

  • Lots of data,

  • a very supportive provincial government,

  • and a very compelling hole to follow up on.

• How much do insiders and strategics own?

  • Nearly 25%.

  • Jeremy is in for a very significant percentage of his net worth.

  • Very confident in the potential and the valuation. Still buying in the market.

• If they were valued same as peers they’d be a $250 million+ company.

• Doesn’t think directors should buy in the market. They’re there to be independent.

• CEO hasn’t bought stock. Doesn’t participate in the market.

  • His CEO salary is low. $12,000 CAD monthly.

  • Left a well-paying job to be here because he believes in it.

• Supporting investors are all in for significant amounts.

27:15 Peter Marrone – His involvement. Yamana Gold connection?

• Peter builds very big companies.

• Yamana’s Argentinian country manager was who put the land together.

• Jeremy brought the property to Peter (who was aware of it) with the original Sendero but Peter passed on it.

  • But Peter joined after the board and management team were turned over.

• Peter built a mine in Argentina before.

  • He knows how to do this.

  • Peter believes Sendero has a calculated shot at discovering what their neighbours have.

• So they understand the geology, understand the jurisdiction, and have access to money.

30:15 Drill Campaign Details

• They had the benefit last year to really get into the geology as they reset the company.

  • Lots of targets to assess.

  • They eventually focused on the area near La Ollita.

• They could have repeated previous drilling for a low risk chance at repeating a good drill hole.

  • However, their structural understanding, influenced by where their neighbours have been making their discoveries, evolved.

  • This means they came up with a new, never-drilled, area of interest, in the middle of a lot of historic drilling.

• The AOI is right on top of the fault (where major neighbouring discoveries are found) and is mineralised all around its periphery.

  • They want to prove something major and new

• Two phase campaign, 3,600 meters.

• They need to prove there’s something of substance there to be able to build the market cap needed to hit the rest of the property properly.

• They will stay close to surface – too expensive to go deep.

  • They should be able to get a meaningful answer to our exploration thesis in the first 500 meters.

  • If they don’t see anything it is because our model is wrong.

Final Thoughts

• They keep on executing.

  • They’ve fixed the debt,

  • rebuilt the geological model,

  • fixed the expensive option agreement.

  • Raised money

  • and now they’re drilling.

• Will release results at end of the program.

• Argentina as a jurisdiction – lots of ability to operate.

  • La Rioja province very supportive.

• There is an arbitrage opportunity here, where the true value of the company is being discounted because of past events.

Disclaimer

The content found in the JuniorResourceInvesting podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. The information provided is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we are not responsible for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. We are not registered investment advisors. It is based on opinions, SEDAR+ filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and JuniorResourceInvesting offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on JuniorResourceInvesting or our videos. We may hold equity positions in some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. Similarly, we may have been compensated by the company we interviewed for this episode, which is also an obvious conflict of interest. I work hard to be independent, objective, and selective, but you should be critical of my work. JuniorResourceInvesting may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on JuniorResourceInvesting is to be used at your own risk. By following JuniorResourceInvesting, you agree to hold JuniorResourceInvesting, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred. Rights to all images remain with original owner.

1. Cosa Resources (COSA.V)
   Cosa announced a very positive first hole a week or two back with plans for a coupl…

Read more

tl;dr:

New-name Contango Silver & Gold (CTGO.NY) has been producing no shortage of headlines for investors to keep up with as the Contango team continues to execute on their aggressive vision to become a sector-leading North American-focused precious metals producer over the coming years.

Of course, the major Dolly Varden merger (and note that Dolly all this time continues to publish high-grade results) is now signed and completed, and just waiting for the new Canadian ticker to come online.

But there are other important developments, too: A big cash offering used to pay down much of the remaining hedges was completed, excitingly meaning that by summer Contango’s impressive Manh Choh production will at long last be fully exposed to spot. And Lucky Shot also has news, with drilling there producing high-grade results (60.22 g/t Au over 5.92 m) as they continue to successfully expand and upgrade the known resource.

I caught up with CEO Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse while in Toronto for PDAC a few weeks back for a company update on all this and more. I also discuss below (again) why I believe Contango’s recent share price struggles are caused by two core external issues, both of which I believe are coming to an end.
#ctgo #ctgo.ny #dv

1. Interview

Index

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00:45: Feb. 16: $50 million offering rationale
04:45 Why raise money and not use the cash flow?
07:15 Update on Debt Facility
08:45 Johnson Tract as Part of the Fast-41 Program
11:30 Lucky Shot Drill Results Explained
15:15 Timelines

Share

2. Companion Article

I risk sounding a little repetitive with my take on Contango, but I think it is clearly a buy here as its crashed for a couple reasons I will get into later. Yes, producers will take a hit if oil has moved from $70 to $100 for the short-to-medium term, but there just isn’t a serious concern from that to warrant the sort of crash Contango has experienced.

Remember: 60,000+ ounces annually of high margin gold. Hedge and debt free by summer and end of year respectively. Clear pathway to substantial production growth. Strong management team. Tiny float. And all this with gold stubbornly holding onto $4500. The margins that those kind of prices produce when your AISC is ~$1500 or so is huge, regardless of if oil is at $70 or $100. Contango remains an extremely successful venture regardless.

To demonstrate the impact spot price has on Manh Choh, the NPV5 of its 2023 base case at $1600 spot was US$30 million, but by $4500 gold, that explodes to to some $450 million (by my roughly linear estimate). That’s a wild amount of leverage.

Which means that yes, Contango’s DSO model will be sensitive to rising fuel costs, but the impact of those increased costs remains dwarfed by the impact of gold’s huge run. Contango will still be doing some US$150 million in annualised cash flow in just a few short months.

So the story here should very much remain “Contango Ore is producing high-grade, high-margin gold at near-record gold prices”.

And the fact it hasn’t, that we’ve seen Contango crash nearly 50% from its recent highs, makes this still one of my top picks for a bounce back.

Again, remember that a big part of this downturn is that Contango is tied at the hip valuation-wise to Dolly Varden. Dolly Varden, being one of the highly-visible market flagships for silver exploration projects, will closely reflect the booms and busts of silver’s wild run. And so its downswing is more understandable in the greater context.

But because of its being tied to Contango valuation-wise for the merger, Contango must follow a similar pattern, even while it continues to sell high-margin gold at $4500 spot prices.

So, so long as there remained a fixed valuation ratio between DV and CTGO that meant crashing silver explore co valuations would end up driving the bus for a high-margin gold producer. Arbitrage is real. But that deal is now closed. So I strongly suspect we will see upward pressure as people suddenly remember this is a high-grade, gold-dominant play that is absolutely stacking free cash flow.

Yes, DV’s Kitsault Valley project is Contango’s sparkling crown jewel, but it remains 5 years out from driving the bus here despite the strange arbitrage-led situation over the past couple months.

And gold sentiment will bounce back soon. The long-term pressures driving it up and to the right are only increasing. And Contango is simply making too much high-margin cash with too much future potential to really worry about it in the mean time.

And as Rick mentions, by the end of Q2, Contango anticipates it will be fully exposed to current spot price (having bought out a good chunk of the remaining $2025 hedges with their recent $50 million offering). So think about the cash being added to Contango’s till in the coming months:

1. $37 million: The amount they spent servicing debt last year.
2. $105 million: The difference between selling 70% of their gold into hedges at $2025 vs. at a current spot of $4525.

Between those two coming off the ledger before end of 2026, if spot stays at $4500 for 2027 that is well over $140 million in cash that, rather than being diverted into other people’s pockets, can begin being poured into advancing Contango itself. That is a massive incoming boost that will have a dramatic impact on this company. And the market doesn’t have to be very forward looking to see that it is coming soon.

I’ll end it there. This is a very compelling valuation for this company. Written summary below.

Thanks for reading.

-Matthew

Leave a comment

3. Written Summary

PDAC Sit-Down with Contango Ore

00:45: Feb. 16: $50 million offering rationale

• Raised with two of CTGO’s large institutional shareholders.

• Raised to eliminate the hedges holding back CTGO.

  • Effectively used the money to deliver 15,000 oz into the hedges.

• Manh Choh batch processing happening right now.

  • After this campaign, there will only be one more processing campaign next quarter left to finish off the hedges.

04:45 Why raise money and not use the cash flow?

• If they did, then Johnson Tract and Lucky Shot would not be able to be aggressively advanced.

• $2025 hedged price is obviously thousands of dollars lost in margin per ounce.

  • This exposes them to gold’s run.

Pre-Funded Warrants Overview

• They allow CTGO to get all the cash for both warrants and shares up front and then exercising itself is just a penny.

  • Basically just a clever way to get around limits on how much an institutional shareholder can buy (so they can own more).

  • CTGO likes it because they get all the cash up front.

07:15 Update on Debt Facility

• Started with $70million, down to about $13 million. Again, been aggressive with it.

  • They have the cash on hand to pay debt off right now, but won’t.

  • Want to keep aggressively moving JT and LS forward.

08:45 Johnson Tract as Part of the Fast-41 Program

• Obama-era policy that promotes infrastructure growth.

  • Being used right now to essentially provide fixed dates for permitting process being completed.

  • JT’s date of being fully permitted is in May of 2028.

  • CTGO has an obligation to get their data into all the various govt agencies by a certain date.

  • The agencies then have an obligation to complete the process by that date.

11:30 Lucky Shot Drill Results Explained

• Very good results - ~60 g/t Au over ~6m.

• Targeting the down dip extension of the Lucky Shot vein.

  • “Lucky Shot 2” (L1) in the hanging wall.

  • L2 in the footwall.

  • Finding other smaller veins in and around the main vein.

• The ultra-high-grade results actually come from a vein that is in a different orientation than the majority of the parallel veins that make up the shear zone.

• Results have been good. Down deeper they know the vein is there, just have to prove it is mineralised.

• Confident the resource will be growing significantly.

15:15 Timelines

• H1 2027 Lucky Shot DFS

• What happens before then with LS?

  • 18,000m drill program, potentially more to fill out the new vein.

  • Targeting resource of 400-500,000oz at 10-15 g/t.

    • All at good, mineable widths.

  • Target remains 5 years of 50k oz/y production.

• UG mining is a little more involved and expensive.

  • Figure an AISC of around $2000/oz.

  • Already pretty high-confidence in the cost, because they already know what the milling costs and trucking costs will be. Not remote. Right on the road system.

• Overall, CTGO:

  • Will be hedge-free by summer.

  • Debt-free by EOY.

  • Dolly Varden merger closed now. Adds 100m+ oz of silver and 1m+ oz of old at the 6-7 g/t Au range.

  • Feels they’re in a very good spot right now.

Disclaimer

The content found in the JuniorResourceInvesting podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not to be considered personal legal or investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other product. The information provided is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but we are not responsible for errors, omissions, or inaccuracies. We are not registered investment advisors. It is based on opinions, SEDAR+ filings, current events, press releases and interviews but is not infallible. It may contain errors and JuniorResourceInvesting offers no inferred or explicit warranty as to the accuracy of the information presented. If personal advice is needed, consult a qualified legal, tax or investment professional. Do not base any investment decision on the information contained on JuniorResourceInvesting or our videos. We may hold equity positions in some of the companies featured on this site and therefore are biased and hold an obvious conflict of interest. Similarly, we may have been compensated by the company we interviewed for this episode, which is also an obvious conflict of interest. I work hard to be independent, objective, and selective, but you should be critical of my work. JuniorResourceInvesting may provide website addresses or links to websites and we disclaim any responsibility for the content of any such other websites. The information you find on JuniorResourceInvesting is to be used at your own risk. By following JuniorResourceInvesting, you agree to hold JuniorResourceInvesting, its owner, associates, sponsors, affiliates, and partners harmless and to completely release them from any and all liabilities due to any and all losses, damages, or injuries (financial or otherwise) that may be incurred. Rights to all images remain with original owner.