Quick hits, my take, and what I’m still thinking about!

Leverage is everywhere right now

Margin debt just hit a record $1.3 trillion, up 53% in 12 months. Retail is 25% of volume in 3x leveraged Nasdaq ETFs. And call option volume hit a record $2.6T notional… almost 60% of all SPX options are now calls.

My take: Everyone’s chasing this rally with leverage and it actually worries me. This much leverage in the system rarely resolves without a forced unwind first. Doesn’t mean the rally’s over, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a violent shakeout before the next leg up.

Still thinking about: What’s the trigger though? These setups can grind higher for a while before they snap. The longer it runs, the worse the unwind tends to be.

SpaceX is already trading before the IPO

Trade.xyz and Hyperliquid launched a pre-IPO perps market for SpaceX, basically letting people do price-discovery before the actual IPO drops. These same kinds of markets were pretty accurate on predicting Cerebras’ opening price.

My take: Super cool to watch this happen in real time and I’ll be following the SpaceX market closely. Also been adding some smaller “beta” space plays on the side, names that I believe should pop if SpaceX pops, since the whole sector tends to move together when a big IPO catalyst hits.

Still thinking about: How accurate will the perp market actually be? If it’s close, this could become the de-facto way to price IPOs going forward.

Japan controls the stock market

Michael Gayed reposting again that “Japan is the global liquidity”, and honestly he’s been right about this for a while. The Yen and JGBs have been moving a lot and that pressure could spread through world markets.

My take: I wrote about the yen a couple newsletters ago and it’s only gotten weirder since. The carry trade is one of the biggest hidden sources of leverage in the world right now. If Japan loses control of their currency or yields, the spillover could hit everything like it did in late 2024.

Still thinking about: Does the BoJ have any tools left that actually work? Each intervention seems to move the needle less than the last one. They also could run out of capital to defend soon…

That’s all I’ve got this week. Reply/comment below and tell me what I’m missing!

— Kevin

Inflation’s still not dead

Inflation print came in hot and now rate hike odds are back on the table. A hike from here would be risk off across the board, pretty much everything would take a hit.

My take: I thought we were done with this conversation, but I guess not. The market’s been pricing in cuts/neutral for a while now and if that flips, a lot of portfolios are positioned wrong for it.

Still thinking about: How quickly does sentiment shift if a hike actually gets signaled? Could be violent.

Gold might have more room to run

China’s central bank has restarted buying gold aggressively after a pause. Gold’s been consolidating for a bit after its big move. This could be the catalyst that breaks it out.

My take: When a central bank is your buyer, that’s a different kind of demand. Not retail chasing a trend, but actual sustained accumulation. Hard to ignore that.

Still thinking about: Is this the start of a new leg up or just noise? The consolidation pattern’s been pretty tight after all.

Which assets actually hold up in a recession?

Morningstar did some analysis and they found that cash, bonds, gold, treasuries have historically done the best when things get bad. The market’s not pricing in a recession right now, but that can change fast.

My take: Most people wait until it’s obvious and then react. By then you’ve already taken the hit. Not saying run to cash, but it’s worth knowing what your portfolio looks like if things turn, before you need to find out the hard way.

Still thinking about: Gold keeps showing up across all three of these this week. Maybe that’s the signal…

That’s all I’ve got this week. Reply/comment below and tell me what I’m missing!

— Kevin

Investing isn’t what it used to be

Ricky Sandler, legendary hedge fund manager, closed his fund after 27 year. He argued that fundamentals alone haven’t really worked since the GFC, definitely not since 2019. Flows, positioning, liquidity, sentiment, and other factors matter way more these days.

My take: Gone are the days of great value/fundamentals investing. You can be right about a company and still watch the stock go nowhere for a long time because of other factors. Fundamentals still matter, but they’re not enough on their own anymore. We retail investors need to adapt/evolve.

Still thinking about: What are the new factors that matter for price action? We should dig into this together on a livestream sometime…

Something weird in the Yen charts

Analysts have shared charts showing after-effects of yen intervention. worth a glance because the Yen actually matters a lot for global markets and can cause huge volatility.

My take: I’m not calling anything. but the yen keeps showing up at the scene of every recent vol event: Aug 2024 carry unwind, the intervention rounds since. When something like this keeps happening I start watching closer.

Still thinking about: Will the BoJ be able to reign in their currency successfully or does the market run away from their control and they have to take more desperate measures?

Buffett’s still sitting on the cash

Buffett calling the market a circus, too much gambling, and he’s sitting on record cash. He’s been patient a long time at this point.

My take: Just because Buffett can afford to wait for years in cash, doesn’t mean that’s a smart idea for retail investors. Though I do think markets are overvalued potentially and a generational buying opportunity will present itself in the coming years.

Still thinking about: What gets him off the sidelines? If he actually deploys in the next 12 months, that signal’s probably more useful than the cash pile itself.

That’s all I’ve got this week. Reply/comment below and tell me what I’m missing!

— Kevin

1. Bonds aren’t buying this rally [ INTERESTING CHART / DATA ] Source

Signal: High yield bonds (HYG) are stalling while stocks (SPY) keep pushing higher. That credit-vs-equities divergence has historically shown up near short-term tops.

Why it matters: When credit doesn’t confirm an equity rally, that’s a warning sign. Probably not the ideal moment to buy aggressively.

Go deeper: Does HYG catch up, or does SPY roll over to meet it? Watch the spread over the next couple weeks for clues.

Surfaced by Kevin

2. This rally might be running on options fumes [ NEW THESIS / IDEA ] Source

Signal: Gordon Johnson argues the recent move isn’t about fundamentals, it’s options flow mechanics in a handful of mega-cap tech names mechanically pushing the index higher.

Why it matters: All seven Mag-7 names report around April 29. If he’s right, the mechanical bid disappears Thursday and the unwind hits hard.

Go deeper: Watch how Mag-7 trades post-earnings, especially Amazon. The unwind will be obvious within a week or two if it’s real.

Surfaced by Kevin

3. Wall Street and Main Street have never been this far apart [ INTERESTING CHART / DATA ] Source

Signal: Consumer Sentiment hit a record low of 47.6 in April while the S&P 500 trades near all-time highs. The gap is the largest on record.

Why it matters: Classic K-shaped setup. The market’s pricing a soft landing, the consumer clearly isn’t, and eventually one of them is wrong.

Go deeper: Watch discount retailer earnings (Walmart, Dollar General) and any cracks in the high-end consumer as the signal that the divide is closing.

Surfaced by Kevin

4. AI infrastructure bottleneck stocks keep flying [ NEW IDEA / THESIS ] Source

Signal: Companies at the AI data center bottlenecks are ripping YTD. Standouts: AAOI +312%, HYNSE +80%, VRTV +78%, SMSD +70%, MRVL +65%.

Why it matters: Instead of trying to pick the next NVIDIA, this maps the actual supply chain. As long as hyperscaler capex stays vertical, the bottleneck layer keeps getting bid.

Go deeper: Which names still have room to run versus which are priced for perfection? AAOI up 312% is the obvious one to scrutinize.

Surfaced by Kevin

5. You can now buy tokenized AI compute on Coinbase [ NEW IDEA / THESIS ] Source

Signal: DIEM is now live on Coinbase. Each token staked at Venice gives you $1/day of renewing AI credit on all leading models, including Claude Opus.

Why it matters: Novel way to get exposure to AI compute demand. Holding a token that produces inference credits forever is a structurally different bet than buying NVIDIA or paying a monthly sub.

Go deeper: Do the token economics hold up over time? What’s the real cost per dollar of compute versus paying directly?

Surfaced by Kevin

1. Kraken re-launching their IPO signals the market may be heating back up [ IMPACTFUL EVENT ] Source

Signal: After initially pausing their IPO, Kraken is back on track. This means that the window of market uncertainty that froze IPO activity may be ending sooner than expected.

Why it matters: If major companies are resuming IPO plans, it could signal returning investor confidence and risk-on sentiment, which may have broader implications for risk assets and the IPO pipeline ahead.

Go deeper: Is Kraken’s re-launch an isolated case or are other paused IPOs also coming back? How is the broader IPO market performing right now?

Surfaced by Kevin

2. Nearly half of US data centers planned for 2026 may never get built on time [ IMPACTFUL EVENT ] Source

Signal: A severe shortage of electrical infrastructure (transformers, switchgear, batteries) is expected to delay or cancel close to half of all US data center projects planned for this year.

Why it matters: If the data center buildout stalls at the infrastructure layer, AI capacity expansion timelines get pushed out. That could affect revenue projections for the companies driving the AI trade.

Go deeper: Which electrical equipment manufacturers are the primary bottleneck? Are any publicly traded and potentially investable?

Surfaced by Nik

3. China is quietly striking petro-yuan deals with Gulf nations and it’s chipping away at dollar dominance [ IMPACTFUL EVENT ] Source

Signal: China has announced petro-yuan agreements with Gulf countries, meaning oil transactions that previously settled in USD will now settle in Chinese yuan, a concrete step toward de-dollarization.

Why it matters: If petro-yuan adoption accelerates, it could structurally reduce global demand for US dollars, putting long-term pressure on USD strength and raising questions about where capital flows next.

Go deeper: What volume of oil trade is involved, and how does this compare to the overall petrodollar system? What assets historically benefit when dollar dominance weakens?

Surfaced by irfah

4. Top macro analysts disagree on where liquidity is headed and that disagreement is itself the signal [ NEW IDEA/THESIS ] Source

Signal: Several of the most followed macro analysts are publicly at odds over the 2026 liquidity outlook. This means the market is pricing in significant uncertainty, and whoever gets this call right stands to generate outsized returns.

Why it matters: Liquidity is the tide that lifts or sinks all boats. If you can identify which camp is more likely correct, you can position ahead of a major market move before consensus forms.

Go deeper: What are the core bull vs. bear liquidity arguments in the thread, and which leading indicators would confirm one side over the other?

Surfaced by Kevin

1. Retail investors are bearish. Is it time to turn bullish? [ INTERESTING DATA/CHART ] Source

Signal: Data analyzed by Citadel and JP Morgan shows retail investors have begun positioning themselves more defensively, reaching levels of bearishness that have historically been contrarian indicators.

Why it matters: Retail is typically “wrong” at market extremes. If history holds, the crowd leaning defensive could actually be a signal to consider going the other direction.

Go deeper: Can we verify the underlying retail positioning data ourselves? What happened to the stock market in prior periods where retail was similarly positioned?

Surfaced by Kevin

2. The Bittensor ecosystem has serious internal drama [ IMPACTFUL EVENT ] Source

Signal: One of the top subnets in the Bittensor ecosystem had a major falling out with the core team and has decided to leave the ecosystem entirely.

Why it matters: Bittensor has been heavily hyped recently, but if the incentive structure keeps pushing away top teams, this will happen again. That makes it hard to justify a high valuation for TAO if it can’t retain its best builders.

Go deeper: What exactly happened and who was in the right? Is this a structural incentive problem for Bittensor, or a one-off? Could this repeat without a fundamental fix?

Surfaced by Kryptomatosis

3. It may be time to invest in defense companies and stocks [ NEW IDEA/THESIS ] Source

Signal: The world is trending toward more geopolitical conflict and a growing share of government spending is being directed toward military budgets — a structural shift that appears to be accelerating.

Why it matters: If this trend doesn’t reverse, identifying solid defense plays now, before they become consensus, could be a smart early-mover investing opportunity.

Go deeper: Which companies have benefited most from the recent increase in defense spending? Are there any under-the-radar opportunities in this sector worth exploring?

Surfaced by Nik

1. Multiple companies in crypto have started to pause/postpone their IPOs [ IMPACTFUL EVENT ] Source

Signal: Bithumb postpones their IPO following Kraken, signaling broader market uncertainty and a potentially weakening IPO market in TradFi as well.

Why it matters: If the IPO market continues to weaken and recent IPOs continue their underperformance, then perhaps we should stay away from upcoming hot IPOs as well.

Go deeper: Which other IPOs have publicly postponed or paused their plans? How did the recent hot IPOs of 2025 fare so far?

Surfaced by Kryptomatosis

2. Peptides (i.e. Ozempic) are on the rise and could represent an investment opportunity [ NEW IDEA/THESIS ] Source

Signal: Peptides are on the rise and could be a worthy sector to research further for under-the-radar investment opportunities.

Why it matters: The mega pharma companies may already be priced in, but there may be lesser-known peptide-related companies that could deliver massive gains if identified and invested in early.

Go deeper: What are peptides and what is the growth trend? Which under-the-radar peptide drugs could be a potential investment opportunity?

Surfaced by Kevin

3. The Iranian oil shock may not be as bad as people are saying [ NEW IDEA/THESIS ] Source

Signal: Based on one analyst’s data and arguments, the Iranian oil shock may be more manageable than most people are claiming on X.

Why it matters: If the oil shock is more contained than feared, the market may recover faster than expected and it could become risk-on again sooner.

Go deeper: Work through the arguments and data in the post and cross-check with other original sources or use AI to stress-test which side is right.

Surfaced by Kevin

4. The Strait of Hormuz isn’t the only strait global investors need to worry about [ IMPACTFUL EVENT ] Source

Signal: Iranian officials have threatened to close the Bab Al-Mandeb strait bordering Yemen, which could compound the existing commodities and resource crisis.

Why it matters: If the Houthis (backed by Iran) close the Bab Al-Mandeb strait, it could be yet another black swan event for global markets and world economies.

Go deeper: History of Houthi actions in the BAM strait. How much oil and resources flow through it? Do the Houthis have the capability to actually close it down?

Surfaced by Nik

1. The stock market might have topped [ NEW IDEA/THESIS ] Source

Signal: Multiple charts and data points suggest a potential mid-term stock market top may be forming.

Why it matters: If true, a more cautious and defensive portfolio posture may be warranted for the foreseeable future.

Go deeper: Read the full thread. Use AI to ask questions about the correlations and analysis within.

Surfaced by Kevin

2. This chart implies no bull market for Bitcoin for now [ INTERESTING CHART/DATA ] Source

Signal: US fiscal impulse is negative and falling. Historically this means that Bitcoin and crypto are in a bearish regime.

Why it matters: If the signal holds, buying dips aggressively right now may be premature. Patience could be the better play.

Go deeper: Research what fiscal impulse means and how it logically flows into risk asset performance like Bitcoin.

Surfaced by Kevin

3. The Iran war affects far more than just oil [ IMPACTFUL EVENT ] Source

Signal: The conflict has halted Qatar’s helium production (roughly 30% of global supply) threatening semiconductor fabs, AI chips, MRI machines, and space tech with no quick substitutes available.

Why it matters: Global markets and economies may be more negatively affected than the market is currently pricing in.

Go deeper: What else is majorly affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure besides oil and helium?

Surfaced by Nik

4. There’s a bull market happening in the Bittensor TAO ecosystem [ NEW IDEA/THESIS ] Source

Signal: Multiple projects in the Bittensor ecosystem have surged significantly over the past few weeks, bucking the broader sideways and down market.

Why it matters: Could represent a rare pocket of opportunity for gains while most of the market struggles.

Go deeper: Which projects in the Bittensor ecosystem look most promising, and what’s the bull and bear case for each?

Surfaced by Kevin

5. Ethereum has been planning for its post-quantum future [ IMPACTFUL EVENT ] Source

Signal: The Ethereum Foundation just launched an official Post-Quantum hub with a clear roadmap to upgrade the entire network for the quantum era.

Why it matters: Quantum risk has been a persistent investor concern. This shows that Ethereum is taking it seriously with a concrete plan.

Go deeper: What threat does quantum computing actually pose to crypto, and does Ethereum’s roadmap sufficiently address it?

Surfaced by Nik