Welcome to part 5 of my new series.

The exact story of how I quit my corporate job → built an online career → helped scale a company to seven figures (ARR)

And most importantly, how you can do the same.

I’m excited to share this next one with you as it’s probably the most ‘actionable’ one so far.

If you missed the earlier series, you can check them out here:

Remote Sales: How to Earn Money Online

If I was stuck in a corporate job I hated, I know exactly what I’d do.

I’d learn remote sales on evenings and weekends.

Then I’d use it to build my way out.

I spent years working in banking at one of the biggest firms in London.

Since leaving, I’ve spent five years building skills that allow me to earn online.

And of everything I’ve learned, sales is the skill I’d recommend to someone who wants to do the same.

You don’t need a degree in it.

You don’t need an audience.

You don’t need to start your own business.

You just need to learn the skill and find someone with a great product who needs help selling it.

Here’s exactly how I’d get started.

Why remote sales?

I still keep in touch with a lot of people I worked with in banking.

Some of them dislike what they do, but feel completely ‘stuck’.

The same questions always come up:

• What else would I do?

• How would I get started?

• Would I have to take a huge pay cut?

• What skills do I even have outside of my current job?

I’ve thought about this a lot.

I believe sales has one of the best combinations of earning potential + low barrier to entry + location freedom.

You don’t need years of retraining.

You can learn the fundamentals for free.

And most importantly, you can get better by actually doing the job.

So I’m going to show you two things:

1. The three skills I believe make someone good at sales.

2. How I’d build those skills and find my first opportunity.

First: forget what you think sales is

Before I share the three key sales skills, we need to define what sales actually is.

And one of the best ways to learn sales is to forget everything you THINK you know about it.

Let me show you why.

Picture a salesperson.

Most people have viewed a property at some point, so let’s use a real estate agent.

We’ll call him Salesperson Sam.

Now meet Familyman Fred.

Fred wants to buy a new property for his family, so he books a viewing with Sam.

Sam rocks up looking seriously impressive:

• Fancy suit and Rolex

• Giga confident

• He’s got that kind of walk where you just KNOW he thinks he’s the best thing since sliced bread

And the property is impressive too:

• Amazing modern house

• Beautifully finished

• Huge kitchen and plenty of space

Sam knows EVERYTHING about it.

He spends the entire viewing describing every feature in great detail.

But there’s one problem.

Fred doesn’t buy.

Why?

Over the next three sections, we’re going to score Sam on what I believe are the three most important skills in sales.

And by the end, you’ll see that being good at sales has very little to do with being the loudest, smoothest or most confident person in the room.

Skill 1: Find something worth selling

This is a personal POV. I can’t tell you how to live your life.

But it wouldn’t be authentic for me to write this article without this section.

I categorically believe you should only sell a good product.

If you’re looking at a company, do your research. Look at the reviews and make sure the product ACTUALLY delivers on its promise.

If you’re selling your own thing, look at your feedback and results and ask the same question:

Does this genuinely help people?

Why does this matter?

Firstly, selling a bad product is unethical. Integrity is one of my biggest values, and I don’t want to get better at convincing people to buy something that won’t help them.

But it’s also terrible business.

If someone buys a product that sucks:

• They tell other people it sucks

• You get rubbish testimonials

• People stop buying

So before you worry about becoming good at sales, find something you’d actually feel good about selling.

Back to Salesperson Sam.

On this one, Sam gets a tick.

The house is genuinely great.

Product: 1/1.

So why didn’t Fred buy?

That brings us to skill two.

Skill 2: Learn to listen

I know this sounds ‘soft’.

We are told to DO, not to LISTEN.

Action Man doesn’t sit around listening to people. He takes action!

But learning to listen is one of the most powerful skills you can develop. Not just in sales, but in almost every area of your life.

Good listening starts with asking good questions.

And actually understanding the answers.

This allows you to either:

• Determine that someone isn’t right for your product

• Understand exactly how your product can help them

Let’s go back to Salesperson Sam.

The most obvious question he could have asked Fred was:

“What kind of property are you looking for?”

Fred would have told him he wanted a family home.

But that’s just the start.

The better Sam’s questions, the more he understands what actually matters to Fred.

This applies to almost any kind of sales.

Someone walks into a shop and asks:

“Do you have any red dresses?”

You could immediately pull out a casual one.

Or you could first ask:

“What’s the occasion?”

“Wedding.”

Now you know what they actually need.

And the better your questions, the more you learn.

Sam could ask Fred:

“What would your dream kitchen look like?”

Fred might say:

“Somewhere my family can hang out while I cook. I feel a bit isolated in our kitchen now.”

Remember that answer.

Because Skill 3 is where it becomes useful.

Listening: 0/1.

Skill 3: Learn to guide

If sales was as simple as finding a good product and asking good questions, we’d all be great salespeople.

The final skill is the most important.

Once you understand what someone wants, you need to help them see how your product gets them there.

Cole Gordon has a nice analogy for this: ‘Hell Island’ and ‘Heaven Island’.

Hell Island = where they are now.

Heaven Island = where they want to be.

Your product is the bridge between the two.

Let’s go back to Fred.

His Hell Island is a cramped house where there isn’t enough space for his family.

His Heaven Island is a big, spacious home where his family can actually enjoy spending time together.

Remember what Fred told Sam about his dream kitchen?

Instead of endlessly describing its features, Sam could say:

“You mentioned wanting somewhere your family can hang out while you cook. See this kitchen island with the stools? Your kids could sit right here while you’re making dinner.”

Same kitchen.

Completely different way of selling it.

Sam isn’t convincing Fred that he wants something he doesn’t.

He listened to what Fred wanted and guided him towards a solution.

That, to me, is good sales.

Guidance: 0/1.

Sam had a great product.

But he never understood Fred well enough to help him buy it.

Sam’s final score: 1/3.

Not exactly Salesman of the Year.

Building the skills

So how do you actually get good at this?

For me, it comes down to two things:

Learn → Do

Learn

We’re living in the age of free education.

There is SO much good sales content online that you really don’t need to pay thousands to learn the fundamentals.

If you want to learn the principles I’ve shared above, I recommend starting with:

• Cole Gordon

• Alex Hormozi

I could list 20 others, but I actually think too much information can make things harder at the start.

Pick one. Work through their YouTube. Take notes.

Then move onto the important part.

Do

Sales is a skill.

And like most skills, you get better through repetition.

Eventually, that means taking real sales calls.

But if you’re right at the beginning, mock calls are awesome.

Ask a friend or family member to role-play a potential customer with you.

Practise asking questions.

Practise actually listening to their answers.

Practise guiding them towards the right solution.

Then ask them for feedback.

You do not need to be great before you start.

You get great by starting.

Finding opportunities

Now you need someone to actually sell for.

And if you’re currently working full-time, you don’t necessarily need to quit your job first.

Look for opportunities you can do part-time, in the evenings or on weekends.

This gives you a chance to get real reps, build a track record and find out whether you actually enjoy sales, without immediately giving up your salary.

It’s actually very similar to how I left banking.

I started building my way out while I was still employed.

So where do you find these opportunities?

Here’s where I’d look:

• Sales communities. Cole Gordon, for example, has a community that connects salespeople with companies looking to hire.

• Job boards. Search LinkedIn and remote job boards for roles like ‘remote closer’, ‘sales representative’ or ‘account executive’.

• Direct outreach. Find companies or creators with products you genuinely like and reach out to them directly.

And don’t be too precious about your first role.

If you can’t immediately get hired as a closer, look at appointment setting roles too.

Your first goal isn’t to find the perfect job or immediately replace your salary.

It’s to get reps.

Because once you have experience and proof that you can actually sell, a lot more doors start to open.

Your next steps

If you’re sitting in an office right now thinking I can’t do this for another five years, you don’t need to quit tomorrow.

Start building the skill that gives you the option to.

This week:

1. Learn: Pick Cole Gordon or Alex Hormozi and start working through their sales content.

2. Practise: Find someone willing to do a few mock calls with you.

3. Search: Find 10 companies selling products you’d genuinely feel good about selling.

Then start reaching out.

Your first opportunity probably won’t be perfect.

It doesn’t need to be.

You don’t need to quit your job.

You don’t need to have it all figured out.

You just need to start building your way out.

Warmly,
Kimia

Welcome to part 4 of my new series.

The exact story of how I quit my corporate job → built an online career → helped scale a company to seven figures (ARR)

And most importantly, how you can do the same.

It’s been awesome to see these trending on X. Appreciate all your support and hope to keep giving you tons of value.

If you missed the earlier series, you can check them out here:

This one is going to be more detailed↓

So, you want to build a personal brand?

You’ve seen the stories, and so have I.

All these 12 year olds becoming millionaires online.

When I was 12, my number one priority was running back from school to make sure my Tamagotchi was still alive.

Anyways, the stories are inspiring, and it gets you thinking:

“People (including lil kids) are making serious income building personal brands online. If they are doing it, why not me?”

So a lot of us try to go down that path.

We pick a platform and start posting consistently. And barely anything comes back.

So we start looking at what’s working for everyone else. We copy the formats, chase the topics that seem to be getting reach, and slowly the content becomes less and less about the thing we actually wanted to talk about.

And eventually it works, sort of. You get a decent ‘follower count’. But those followers are a ghost town. They don’t actually care about your brand or the content. If you ever tried to launch a product, you would just hear crickets.

And eventually, one of two things happens.

We give up. Fair play to the 12 year olds. As Ser Alliser Thorne put it:

“I fought, I lost, and now I rest.”

Or we keep going long enough to build an audience, only to realise we’ve built one we can’t do anything with.

But it doesn’t have to be like that.

The shift is this: stop building for reach, and start building for one specific person.

• If you post regularly, you get engagement from people who were actually looking for what you do

• Everything you make builds on the last thing instead of replacing it, because you know who it’s for before you sit down

• And most importantly of all, you get the kind of audience that ACTUALLY cares about what you do and, if you choose to ever launch something, would consider buying it

In today’s article, I’m sharing the 6 step process to building a personal brand that grows the RIGHT type of audience for you.

I need you to have a pen and paper for this one. Or somewhere you can write. I know it sounds like effort, but if you’re serious about this, do it. Because if you continue to do the same things you do today, you will continue to get the same outputs.

Let’s begin↓

Step 1: Alignment (should you be building a personal brand in the first place)

One of my mentors recently shared an observation with me. It really stuck. He said:

“There’s a difference between intelligence and agency”

Intelligence = being smart enough to do something

Agency = doing something that ACTUALLY aligns with your goal

Applying that to personal brands.

If you are intelligent, yeah, you can probably figure out how to write an article, script a video, etc.

But it takes high AGENCY to know whether you should even be building a personal brand in the first place. So here is my first question to you:

Why do you want to build a personal brand?

• If it’s just a hobby or way to pass time, there’s probably more fun things you could be doing

• If it’s just a way to feel ‘seen’, and I say this kindly, you need to do some healing because ‘online fame’ will still leave you feeling empty

I’m not saying there is a ‘right’ answer. It’s just helpful to know whether this ACTUALLY makes sense for you and what you’re trying to do with your life.

Throughout this article, I’m going to give you my answer to every question as an example.

Question: Why do you want to build a personal brand?

Kimia’s answer: I’m building a personal brand because I’ve seen so many smart people stuck in careers they hate. I was personally able to quit my job, build high-earning skills online and scale an education business from 0 → multi-7 figures. I want to help those ‘stuck’ people to do the same, and I’ll reach the most people online via a personal brand.

Write your answer and move on.

Step 2: End Game (where are you trying to take this thing?)

You know how in Alice in Wonderland, Alice is lost and asks the cat in the sky:

“I’m not sure which way to go from here”

And his response is something like:

“That depends on where you are trying to go”

When I was younger, I didn’t really understand this line. Now I see Lewis Carroll for the full genius of it.

You cannot assess any action you are taking (e.g. building a personal brand) unless you have an idea of where you are trying to take the thing.

You need to understand your funnel. A personal brand funnel looks a bit like this:

Lead generation -> Lead nurture -> Lead conversion

Lead generation = how do you reach people? (basically, what platform do you post on)

Lead nurture = how do you help people understand you better? (more on this later)

Lead conversion = what do you ultimately want to launch with your brand?

The last one is what I see ignored most often. People are just randomly posting and don’t know what their end goal is. To give you some examples of end goals:

• A fitness account may have the end goal of launching personal coaching for its audience

• A trading account may have the end goal of selling a trading program

• A meditation account may have the goal of launching a free community that gathers online and meditates via a big group call 10 times a day

It doesn’t HAVE to be a paid product, but you should know what you are trying to do eventually. Such that each step you take is a sort of stepping stone along the way.

Question: What do you eventually want to do with your personal brand?

Kimia’s answer: One day, I’d love to launch a community for skilled professionals who want education/coaching on how to leave their current role and get an online, high-earning one where they can live under their own terms.

Step 3: Longevity (how do you make sure you don’t give up)

A lot of people will complete Step 1 and Step 2, then get stuck here.

They know the high-agency move for them is to build a personal brand.

They know the end destination for their brand.

BUT they just give up after a few weeks. So, let’s talk about how to stop that from happening.

Three things:

1. Make sure you are building something you ACTUALLY like.

A long while ago, I used to work as an FX trader. So when I first started my personal brand, this seemed like the most obvious thing to write about.

I knew it well, and it was an important topic (macroeconomics, news, etc.)

And don’t get me wrong, it’s not that I wasn’t interested in the topic. I was.

It just wasn’t the kind of thing that I could sit and talk to you about for HOURS and feel like the time was just flying by.

But this topic here? Writing an article to help you make money online via a personal brand? I’m typing this for you right now on a Sunday morning in London, and I am loving every second of it.

So, make sure you love the topic/area you’ve picked too. If you need to go and redo Step 1, that’s okay. 10 minutes now is a better investment than months wasted on a brand you get bored of and give up on.

2. Make sure you are being yourself.

There is a common misconception that you have to ‘be like’ the creators in your space.

Let’s take Gary Vee as an example.

He’s one of the most high-energy, charismatic people I’ve ever seen.

But are you high-energy and charismatic?

It’s okay if you are not.

For example, Leila Hormozi has a lot of cool, chilled vibes.

All sorts of personalities can build great personal brands. What matters most of all is being YOURSELF.

Because wearing a mask is exhausting, and it will make you want to quit after a while.

This is a mistake I made personally when I started my YouTube videos. I am not a super high-energy crazy person. I’m quite calm, intensely passionate about my interests and I make nerdy Game of Thrones jokes. And nowadays I wear that on my sleeve.

I encourage you to do the same with your personal brand. Just think about it. If your personal brand really kicks off, you’re probably going to meet a lot of your followers in person. Nothing is going to break trust like being a totally different person online compared to IRL.

And do you REALLY want to play a character your whole life?

3. Be realistic about your LONG-TERM capacity.

I’ve seen some people go HAM on their personal brands.

For the first few weeks, they are doing 5 posts a day every day.

Then it becomes 4, 3, 2, 1 and… eventually 0.

What’s worse, you feel more and more guilty along the way.

So, what you can do instead is ask yourself: what is the minimum amount of time I can dedicate to my personal brand a week?

And make that your starting point.

Because consistency is key here.

Question (this one is 3 parts): Are you building something you actually like? Are you building as your authentic self? Have you figured out the time you can dedicate to your brand consistently?

Kimia’s answer: Yes, I love my topic. Yes, I am being my authentic self. Yes, regarding my schedule, I block out 4 hours every Sunday morning to write an article. And on the other days of the week, I have a 30-minute slot where I am to just post ONE piece of content daily. That may not be as much volume as other brands, but I know I can commit to it consistently.

Quick note to reader here: don’t forget that when you are looking at the biggest brands in the space, they have entire TEAMS helping them run it. So it doesn’t make sense to compare yourself (one person) to that level of volume.

Step 4: Authority (why should someone listen to you?)

I’ve seen a lot of people in the space kind of assume that readers know their credentials.

YOU know you’ve climbed that mountain, built that skill set, coded that successful app, but how do you expect your audience to know that?

When you are writing, you HAVE to show your authority or expertise in a subject area.

There are two ways to do this:

Option 1 = literally just list your credentials. For example, my bio says “build an online education business from 0 → multi 7-figures”. It means everyone who clicks on my profile knows why they should believe what I am talking about. And in every long-form content I do, I make clear WHY they should listen to me about the subject area. On short-form content, I do this sometimes, but it doesn’t always naturally fit, so don’t overdo it either.

Option 2 = build in public. You don’t HAVE to already have proven authority in a subject area. You can build authority by documenting what you’re learning as you go. The key is not pretending you’re an expert. Instead, you’re helping people who are a few steps behind you skip some of the work you’ve already done. For example, if you’re learning to scuba dive, you could test different equipment and share what you learned, saving your readers the pain of testing everything themselves.

Best thing about option 2? You don’t have to LIE about having authority in a subject. Seriously, just don’t do this. You will regret it. Be honest about where you have proven authority and where you don’t; if you don’t have it yet, go for option two. Caleb Ralston does a lot of great content on this, explaining the importance of TRUST in building personal brands.

Question: Why should someone listen to you?

Kimia’s answer: I’ve listed a lot of my broader credentials already, so let me answer this one specifically about why you should listen to me on this topic: building a personal brand. I worked with an online content creator to help scale his brand from 30k -> 300k+ followers. I’ve also started building my own personal brand. It sits at 2.2k followers on X and 800+ newsletter subscribers.

Clearly write your answer and move on (2 steps to go).

Step 5: Intellectual Blueprint (what does your brand stand for?)

Have you ever tried to write something for your personal brand and just came up totally blank?

As in, you want to write a tweet or make a video, and you just ask yourself: what do I actually think about this topic?

You know your topic, you have all these ideas and beliefs in your HEAD, but they don’t find their way onto the laptop.

This next step fixes that, and it’s one of the best things I ever did for my personal brand.

I first heard about an Intellectual Blueprint from Dan Koe.

The basic idea here is that, as a creator, you need a CLEAR idea of what you stand for and who you are writing to.

What you stand for

• What are your success ‘case studies’ in your topic? Write them out. Exactly what you achieved, and ideally 5-6 really solid ones. So, not just “I did sales calls”. Instead, “I did sales calls over the course of 2 years, taking around 100 calls in the period. I focused on selling weight loss transformation programs. My average close rate was 40%. My approach was inspired by Alex Hormozi’s teachings on handling objections.”

• What do you believe in? When it comes to your subject area, what do you believe in? For example, if you are writing about nutrition, you may be really passionate about high-protein diets and getting as many nutrients as possible via natural foods. I know this is a hard question to answer. So, here are some workarounds. Think of the big accounts that have shaped your thinking; list those out. Or the big books that have influenced you most. OR, think about stuff you really do NOT believe in and makes you angry. Carrying on from the example, you may see a brand pushing for crazy expensive supplements that makes you really angry. Or you may really disagree with vegan diets.

Do NOT be scared to have a ‘contrarian’ take here. So much of the online space is saturated. Unique viewpoints are exactly what make you stand out, and you are not trying to appeal to everyone, only those that align with everything you have mapped out in the earlier steps.

Who are you writing to

• Who is your ICP? ICP = Ideal customer profile, and it is a marketing term. It basically just gets you to think about WHO your audience is. For example, if you are talking about high-protein diets, your audience is probably people who are interested in becoming healthier versions of themselves and are a bit disillusioned by a lot of the ‘conventional wisdom’ on the topic.

Once you have answered these three questions, they become something of a ‘check’ for all your content:

• Does your content align with what you believe in?

• Does your content actually help your ICP?

If the answer is no, do not post it.

I’ll move on to the questions and answers now, but I have kept mine very brief in the interest of keeping the article concise. Ideally, you should have 5-6 case studies, 1 page on what you believe in and at least a few paragraphs describing your ICP in detail

Question: What are your success ‘case studies’ in your topic?

Kimia’s answer: One of my case studies on personal brand: I was editor-in-chief of a newsletter for a content creator and took it from 0 readers to 40,000. We posted 5 times a week and managed a team of 4 writers daily. I was personally responsible for checking all the content for brand alignment and value.

Question: What do you believe in?

Kimia’s answer: I believe in Stoicism. That we are responsible for that which we can control, and one of our biggest unlocks comes with accountability. I also believe in low-risk career transitions and building data that you have a skill set before relying on it for your livelihood. I do NOT believe in this conventional wisdom of “quit your job and go all in” on building a startup.

Question: Who is your ICP?

Kimia’s answer: Skilled professionals working in jobs they don’t like. Whether it’s because of a lack of financial prospects, location freedom or personal alignment.

Step 6: Pillar Content (turn your blueprint into content)

When you write without clarity, it’s obvious.

Content feels empty and unguided, and readers are not stupid. They can feel it.

That’s been the core objective of Steps 1-5: building clarity.

Now it’s time to turn that clarity into content.

A helpful framework here is Cole Gordon’s analogy. He applies it to sales, but I think it fits in personal branding too.

He talks about “hell island” and “heaven island”.

Hell island = where your ICP is right now (hating their job, struggling with nutrition, wanting to scuba dive better, etc.)

Heaven island = where your ICP wants to go (awesome job they love, super healthy, scuba diving way down under)

There’s water in between the islands. And sharks too.

Your personal brand = the BRIDGE that takes them from hell island to heaven island

So really think about that. If you have authority in your area, what did YOU do to cross the bridge? If you are BUILDING authority in your area, what do you believe needs to be done?

Just list it out. 5-10 things that need to be achieved. Skills that need to be mastered. Tasks that need to be completed, etc. I’ll do my question and answer mid-section this time, as it will be helpful.

Question: What are the key subject areas for your brand?

Kimia’s answer: I have isolated 10 main subject areas that I believe are essential for leaving a paid job and comfortably stepping into the world of online business. I have already written articles on 4 of these:

Area 1 = building the personal CONFIDENCE to take that step out of your comfort zone
Area 2 = the framework of gathering EVIDENCE about the value of a skill you build
Area 3 = how to be very productive (as this means working a side hustle on the side)
Area 4 = how to build a personal brand that you can eventually launch a product with (what you’re reading right now)

The next 6 are on the way. I know I can only consistently block 4 hours on Sunday mornings, so I am putting one out a week.

Once you figure yours out, focus on writing them out. If you are on X, make it an article; if you are on LinkedIn, there are similar options; if you are on YouTube, it’s a video.

They are called ‘pillar’ content because they are big works that you can then ‘pyramid’ into short pieces. For example, if you do a big video on one of the topics, you can then clip that into multiple little videos.

Next Steps

And that’s it.

You don’t need millions of followers. You don’t need to become one of those 12 year old millionaires.

You need the right people to find you, understand what you stand for and, over time, trust what you have to say.

You now know who those people are, what you want to help them with and what your brand stands for.

So stop planning.

Go write pillar #1.

Warmly,
Kimia

Welcome to part 3 of my new series.

The exact story of how I quit my corporate job → built an online career → helped scale a company to seven figures (ARR)

And most importantly, how you can do the same.

If you missed Part 1 and Part 2, you can check them out here:

If you’re up to speed, let’s get into it↓

‘Schedule Maxxing’: how to become ridiculously productive

For six months, I worked two jobs.

• 6am–6pm: FX trader at a bank.

• 6pm–10:30pm: newsletter writer.

And somehow, I didn’t completely destroy myself.

This period taught me that productivity isn’t about squeezing more into your calendar. It’s about making sure your calendar reflects the future you keep saying you want.

I’ve called this process ‘Schedule Maxxing’:

Schedule Maxxing = Direction x Time x Capacity

• Direction: Who are you trying to become?

• Time: What’s the One Thing that gets you there fastest?

• Capacity: What allows you to execute consistently?

Direction: Who are you trying to become?

Most people have an image in their head of the person they want to become:

• Earning thousands of dollars a month

• Working fully remote

• Respected by their peers

• Really, really, really, ridiculously good looking (IYKYK)

The problem is that we tend to treat that person as someone we’ll become later.

• Once I earn X, I’ll behave like them.

• Once I get the opportunity, I’ll work like them.

• Once my circumstances change, I’ll live like them.

I think that’s backwards.

You become that person by rehearsing their behaviours before you have their results.

So stop asking, “How do I eventually become that person?”

Ask: “What would that person do this Tuesday?”

This was the first shift I made in my own life.

When I was working at the bank, I always had this dream of working remotely from around the world, earning income on my own terms.

At the time, I was working as an FX trader at a bank. My days started at 6am and finished at 6pm.

But I knew that if I wanted a completely different life, I needed to start building it before I could leave the one I had.

So at 6pm, I’d close one laptop and open another.

From 6pm to 10:30pm, I worked as a newsletter writer.

I did that for six months.

It wasn’t glamorous. There were days when the absolute last thing I wanted to do after a 12-hour shift was write. But this was the first time in my life where my calendar actually reflected the future I kept saying I wanted.

Time: What’s the One Thing that gets you there fastest?

If you’re serious about making your vision work, you need to be serious about your most precious resource.

A lot of people think that’s money.

Actually, it’s time.

Money is renewable. Time isn’t.

For this, I encourage you to think about the Pareto principle otherwise known as the 80/20 rule.

The idea is that roughly 80% of the results come from 20% of the inputs.

In other words, a small amount of focused effort can drive a disproportionate amount of your results.

When you picture your future self, really try to ask:

What’s the ONE thing I can do to make this happen?

And here, you need to think big. As difficult as it is, cast aside any anxiety or doubt and really try to ask yourself: what would it take to win?

A good One Thing should pass a simple test:

If I got significantly better at this over the next 12 months, would it materially change my life?

For me, the answer was writing.

I didn’t need to become better at 15 things. I didn’t need a personal brand, a huge audience or a perfectly optimised morning routine. I needed a skill somebody would pay me for.

So that became the priority.

Capacity: What allows you to execute consistently?

Working 16-hour days isn’t something I’d recommend as a permanent lifestyle. But for those six months, I had a very specific reason for doing it: I was building my way out.

The question was: how could I keep executing without completely burning myself into the ground?

And throughout this period, one rule mattered to me: building my next chapter couldn’t become an excuse to do a bad job in my current one.

Direction gave me the destination. My One Thing gave me the plan. But I still needed the physical and mental capacity to actually execute it.

These five things became my foundations:

1. Sleep. Non-negotiable minimum of 7 hours a night. I don’t mess with my sleep, ever. I religiously wear a sleep tracking watch and I optimise my sleep score like it’s a game. In the 15 minutes before bed I’ll always read a fiction book. It helps switch off the ‘problem solving’ part of my brain.

2. Steps. Minimum of 7,000 steps a day. I know a lot of people say 10k, but for those of us with desk jobs, that can be hard to hit consistently. 7k is a target I can actually stick to, and I find it helps me sleep better too.

3. Exercise. You need cardio and strength. Strength means heavy weights at least twice a week. I notice a huge difference in my energy and focus when I do. And when I say cardio, I mean the kinds where you are sweating and fighting for your life. Running, cycling, boxing, etc. I notice I’m sharper and more focused when I’m training consistently.

4. Meditation. At least 10 minutes a day. I’m not going to tell you I do this every night of my life without fail. Sometimes I don’t. But when I’m consistent with it I can’t begin to describe how different I feel. For me, meditation creates a tiny gap between impulse → action. And inside that gap, I tend to make better decisions.

5. Nutrition. If you only eat crap, you’re slowing down your body and mind. I don’t do anything fancy here. I eat balanced meals with protein, carbs and fats, plenty of fruit and vegetables, and try to minimise heavily processed food.

These five are my foundations. I’m not perfect with all of them, but when they start slipping, my ability to execute usually slips with them. And if you want to go one level deeper, there are two more that have made a huge difference to me:

6. Stoicism. I had my biggest personal breakthrough thanks to Stoicism. I used to waste a lot of energy trying to influence things I couldn't control: what colleagues thought about my work, how other people perceived me, whether someone appreciated the effort I put into a relationship. Stoicism taught me to separate what I can influence from what I can't. I put my energy into the former and try to let go of the latter.

7. Education. It’s just mind blowing how much amazing free content is out there. Whatever skill you want to learn, there are creators out there teaching it for free. If you’re serious about becoming your dream self, start reading what they would read. In my next articles, I’ll cover some of the best education out there for marketing, sales and product.

Next Steps

Before you close this email, open your calendar and answer three questions:

1. Who am I trying to become over the next 12 months?
2. What’s the One Thing that would move me closest to that person?
3. Where does that thing actually exist in my calendar this week?

Be honest with yourself on the last one.

If you can’t point to the hours, it’s not a priority yet.

Warmly,
Kimia

Welcome to part 2 of my new series.

The exact story of how I quit my corporate job → built an online career → helped scale a company to seven figures (ARR)

And most importantly, how you can do the same.

If you missed Part 1, you can check it out here:

It’s where I cover the process to understand what your current job is missing. Once you understand that, you can start to look for new opportunities, which is what Part 2 is about.

Check it out below.

P.S. You might have received a little whoopsie newsletter from me this week. I was organising some old content, fat-fingered it and accidentally sent one out. But we make mistakes, we learn, and we continue. Thanks for your patience.

Plotting Your Great Escape

You’ve made the decision: you want to leave your current job. But you’re not interested in gambles, you want the evidence to know it’s going to work.

I quit my banking job, built the skills to make money online and scaled a 7 figure company.

Here’s how I used data to make my decision, not ‘vibes’.

Finding New Career Opportunities

So most people tell you something like this:

• If you don’t like your job, quit!

• Go all in on making money online

• Fake it till you make it

Picture Jordan Belfort from The Wolf of Wall Street. On the phone, cold calling and selling Penny Stocks.

“The reason for the call today, John, is something just came across my desk, John. It is perhaps the best thing I’ve seen in the last six months. If you have 60 seconds, I’d like to share the idea with you. You got a minute?”

You risk it all and go all in on winning big. The outcome of this type of thinking?

• The idea of making money online becomes super daunting

• You can’t actually picture yourself going through the motions

• You think that you have to end up ‘broke’ for months

The consequence → you never end up actually taking the step to build money online.

So, why has this type of thinking become so mainstream?

It’s because the people who preach it are the 1% it worked for. They are the loudest voices on social media or the ones Leonardo DiCaprio ends up acting in movies. What you don’t hear about is the 99% who failed.

The ones who took the plunge, risked it all, stayed broke for months and ended up right back where they started: in a career they hate.

But here’s the thing. It doesn’t need to be like that. There’s a middle ground here where you can build EVIDENCE before you take the plunge.

In other words, you can actually ‘validate’ if this path is going to work for you before you commit.

The outcome of this approach:

• The journey to make money online becomes objective and data-backed

• You have the evidence to actually go through the motions

• You keep a good income throughout the transition

And that’s exactly what I’m going to talk you through, and I know it works because it’s exactly what I did↓

Observation → Evidence → Action

The popular approach I described above is a little like this:

Observation → Action

• Observation = I want to make a change

• Action = I’m making the change

I’d like to introduce just 1 more step in this process that changes the whole thing:

Observation → Evidence → Action

Where,

• Evidence = Data that shows the change has high-probability upside

So applying that to building income online:

• Observation = I want to make money online

• Evidence = I’m going to get data that shows I have a high-probability upside in making money online

• Action = I’m going to go all in on making money online

Because without evidence, you’re just gambling.

And do you really want to gamble when the stakes are your livelihood?

Building Evidence

“Thanks, Kimia, sounds good. In an ideal world, yeah, I’d have evidence before I did something. But how do I get that evidence?”

Building evidence is simple: you need to gather proof that you’re good at what you want to do.

Let me take you back to 2021:

I was working at a bank, and the pay was good. But I was in an office every single day, and I couldn’t say that my work was really helping anyone. I was just helping big, rich companies get bigger and richer.

One day, I decided I wanted to build money online. I wanted to work fully remote and get paid for working with online businesses that actually help people.

I volunteered for a super junior role for a content creator. I was writing one section of a newsletter that the creator put out.

No pay, just a foot in the door and an opportunity to start practising my skill.

This skill is called content writing. It falls into marketing, and it can earn you big bucks when it’s scaled and developed properly.

I did this role for months. I did it in the evenings after work, and I did it on the weekends.

Eventually, I got good enough that I started to write more sections of the newsletter, and the newsletter was generating enough revenue to pay me. To start with, it was a few hundred a month, but it was still a start.

My first evidence that I could monetise this skill.

I took on more responsibilities and eventually worked my way up to Editor-in-Chief of this newsletter. I did this via vertical and horizontal expansion.

Vertical expansion = getting better at your current work. In my case, I was obsessed with reading other newsletters and seeing what made good writing. I was also reading all the comments and feedback on the newsletter to see what type of content people liked.

Horizontal expansion = taking on new types of work. For me, I put my hand up for whatever needed to be done. The newsletter needs graphics? Cool, let me jump on Canva. The newsletter needs someone to write good titles and subtitles to drive open rates? Awesome, there’s a bunch of online education about that that I can use.

I was offered a full-time position that offered 60% of my current salary. I left my banking job with evidence, excited to build my skills further.

The rule = your replacement income covers fixed costs without drawing down runway

My banking salary was substantial, so 60% gave me enough to cover my basic costs of food and rent without having to dip into my savings.

The key takeaways:

1. Before you take action, apply or volunteer for online income-earning roles

2. Take on what you can and work on it outside your job (evenings, weekends, etc)

3. Keep going until your replacement income covers fixed costs without drawing down runway

4. Then, consider quitting your other job

Yes, this is a lot of hard work, but no one said this was going to be easy.

Fortunately, there is a lot you can do to increase your ability to work hard.

That will be the focus of part 3: schedule maxxing. How to ensure you can put in the hours required to make this work and make the most of those hours.

And in later articles, I’ll go into more detail on the different types of work you can get involved in.

Next Steps

Scan X, communities you are a part of or your network to see what opportunities are out there.

Even if it means volunteering to start with.

Get a foot in the door and start building real evidence that you can earn income from this skill.

Thanks for listening, and if you found this useful, give it a share for others. See you next Sunday for part 3.

Warmly,
Kimia

I know it’s been a while since my last newsletter. And there’s a reason I’ve been quiet… Let me explain↓

When I started this newsletter, I had a really clear goal: Help people build financial freedom.

I thought the best way to do that was: Macro updates for crypto traders.

Recently, I started to question how valuable that really was…

• Will my breakdown of a bullish headline make you richer?

• Will my analysis of a bearish day make you more fulfilled?

I think I’ve landed on a better way to help you build financial freedom:

The exact story of how I quit my corporate job → built an online career → helped scale a company to seven figures

And most importantly, how you can do the same.

I’m going to start by sharing the story as a 10 part series. 1 part a week, every Sunday, for the next 10 weeks. Starting today. You can check out part one below.

Let me know what you think in the comments or by replying to the newsletter (I’ll answer every email).

This newsletter exists for you and if you tell me ‘Kim, I prefer the macro updates.’ then I’ll bring them back after the series.

So, grab a coffee/tea, sit back and enjoy part 1↓

The risks of (not) quitting your job

Staying in a job you hate is the riskiest option you have.

I quit my banking job, built the skills to make money online and scaled a 7 figure company.

Here’s how I took my first step towards a better career↓

It’s easy to stay stuck in a job you hate

Many people are stuck in jobs they hate.

You might feel this way personally. Or if not, I’m sure you know friends and family members who can relate to it.

And it is so easy to stay stuck in these jobs.

Because we are constantly told to stay in a 9-5 and value the ‘stability’.

The consequence of this belief system, is that you are stuck in this job you hate for years. Or maybe even forever.

What’s the fix?

It starts with an honest conversation with yourself and this article will help frame it.

So take a few minutes now to work through this and you can actually break the cycle. If you’re busy, bookmark it and come back later.

Rather than postponing the transition, you can start building a better life and career for yourself.

Staying in a job you hate is your riskiest option

I know that sounds ridiculous.

Seriously, I stayed in a banking job I hated for almost 3 years because all my friends and family told me how ‘good’ it is and that it would be ‘risky’ to try something else. They told me I'd thank myself when I retired with a good pension.

But delaying change is not ‘risk free’.

It has risks you’ve simply become blind to.

Biggest of all is the opportunity cost.

Every single day you spend waiting to change your career is a day you could have been educating yourself and learning the skills to pursue a better career. Or actually living that better career.

There are three costs people rarely think about:

Delaying getting a higher income is probably the biggest opportunity cost of all.

Imagine you delayed changing careers by just five years. That’s sixty months you could have spent learning a high-income skill. Sixty months of higher earnings you never earned. Sixty months your investments never had the chance to compound.

Putting off freedom costs you in social capital.

Your friends and family won’t wait. They’ll remember the birthdays you missed. Or the holidays you spent glued to your laptop. Definitely the evenings you were physically present but mentally at work.

And the longer you live without alignment, the more soul crushing your career becomes.

This takes a huge toll on your mental health and teaches you to ‘accept’ bad situations. You accept a job that makes you miserable, which turns into relationships that make you miserable and so on.

If you’re ready to stop wasting time, the next section helps you identify your biggest unlock↓

Figure out what you’re missing

When I was working at the bank, it took me a while to identify ‘why’ I didn’t enjoy what I was doing.

I built my Peak Career Model to help me map it out and I’ll share it with you here.

I identified that there are 3 key components to a good career:

1) Financial stability (the income to live a good life)

It’s true that money doesn’t buy happiness. But a certain level of income is just a requisite for a good life.

You need to be able to support yourself and your family. Without the constant stress of: What’s going to happen to the mortgage payments? Will the kids get into a good school? Can we cover those medical bills?

2) Location freedom (the freedom to be present for your friends and family)

A big pay cheque is great but what if you’re too busy to ever see your family and friends? Or if when you do see them you’re too tired to even engage with them?

Maybe you want to travel and work from around the world? But you’re stuck in one spot.

On paper, you’re the definition of ‘success’ but you’re totally distant from the people around you who actually matter.

3) Personal alignment (value alignment with your work)

This one’s a silent poison. You got the job and the freedom but you don’t feel passionate about what you do.

There was a version of you as a kid that had these big aspirations and somewhere along the way you gave up on those dreams. Deep down, there’s a part of you that wants to pursue your true passion and you’re always trying to push it away.

Some people have 1 of the 3 components, others have 2 and those who are fulfilled have all three.

When I was in the bank for example, I was firmly in the ‘golden handcuffs’ territory. All I had was financial stability. I was stuck in an office every day with long hours.

I literally had to send my colleagues a message on Bloomberg to let them know I needed to go to the bathroom and I didn’t feel aligned with my work. Personally, I always wanted to help people build wealth and I didn’t feel I was fulfilling that.

When I realised I was missing location freedom and personal alignment it made my next steps clear:

• Find a role that allowed me to be remote. Either fully or partially. But I wanted to have a few days ‘work from home’ so I could have more autonomy over my day.

• Work with content creators. It became clear that if I wanted to help people build wealth at scale, I should learn from, and work with, the people who were already doing exactly that.

Now I work fully remote together with content creators.

It wasn’t immediate. I actually worked 2 jobs for six months.

• 6am - 6pm was banking.

• 6pm - 11pm was working with content creators.

But the outcome?

I’m living in Dubai and in the last 3 years I’ve been able to visit more than 20 countries. And on top of that, I’ve had the opportunity to help hundreds of people build financial wealth. I remember all their stories and journeys. I wake up motivated and excited for my day.

Action: Take a good look at that model and really ask yourself: how many of those 3 things do you have? The missing components are what you should be scoping out in your next career. If you want to chat about it some more feel free to list them in the comments or in response to this email.

Next Steps

If you’re still with me, you’ve already taken step 1 and are ahead of many people.

Seriously, so many people just accept that opportunity cost and grow old and regret that they never made a change.

You’ve recognised the risks of delaying change and critically evaluated your current career to see what’s missing. This helps you understand what you’re looking for in your next career.

This is one of a 10 part series.

The next chapter is going to cover:

• The world of online high income earning skills.

• How you can start building towards one of those skills to earn an income.

If there’s one thing I want you to take away today, it’s this:

Your future career probably won’t begin the day you quit.

It’ll begin the day you decide to stop waiting.

Next week I’ll show you exactly how I discovered the online skills that eventually let me leave banking.

Looking forward to seeing you there.

Warmly,
Kimia

Bitcoin crashed below $70,000 this week, down 44% from its October peak.

This shouldn’t be happening.

• The dollar is weakening.

• A crypto-friendly administration is in power.

• Geopolitical chaos is elevated.

By traditional “debasement trade” logic, Bitcoin should be rallying right now.

Instead, it’s at 16-month lows while gold hits record highs.

Here’s what’s actually happening and when conditions shift.

The Paradox

What should be working:

When fiat currencies weaken through inflation or money printing, hard assets like Bitcoin and gold should surge as hedges against currency debasement.

The current setup:

• Dollar declining in value

• Fiscal spending concerns elevated

• Crypto-friendly regulatory environment

• Geopolitical uncertainty spiking

Bitcoin should be rallying.

It’s not.

What’s Overriding the Debasement Trade

Five forces are stronger than the fundamentals right now:

1. Risk-Off Dominates

When geopolitical uncertainty spikes (Greenland, Iran, trade wars) capital flows to proven hedges (dollar, gold), not speculative ones (Bitcoin).

The paradox: Dollar can be weak in value but strong in demand during chaos.

Bitcoin gets caught in the middle. Not safe enough for flight-to-safety, too risky when uncertainty is high.

2. Bitcoin Trades Like Tech, Not Gold

Bitcoin is correlating with Nasdaq, not commodities.

When tech stocks fall, Bitcoin falls. When VIX spikes, Bitcoin sells off. When risk appetite declines, Bitcoin declines.

In a risk-off environment, Bitcoin doesn’t benefit from dollar weakness. It suffers from declining risk appetite.

The debasement trade assumes Bitcoin behaves like gold. Right now, it’s behaving like a growth stock.

3. Institutional Flows Dried Up

Bitcoin ETFs launched with massive hype in 2024. The promise: institutional capital would provide steady price support.

What actually happened:

• Initial surge of billions in first months

• Flows declined significantly since late 2025

• Trade volumes collapsed

• No marginal buyer when retail sells

ETFs are behaving like thematic tech funds (flows follow sentiment), not gold ETFs (consistent accumulation).

Without institutional inflows, there’s no structural support.

4. No Government Price Support

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently testified that Treasury has no authority to stabilize crypto markets.

Translation: Crypto-friendly means fewer restrictions, not price guarantees.

What the market expected: Government backstop
What the market got: Regulatory clarity (good long-term) but no intervention

The “Trump bump” that sent Bitcoin soaring after November 2024 has been completely erased.

5. Forced Liquidations

Michael Burry recently suggested gold and silver’s volatility is driven by bitcoin bulls liquidating precious metal positions to cover crypto losses.

This is capitulation behavior:

• Forced selling across assets

• Panic overriding fundamentals

• Cascading pressure

Historically, forced liquidation phases precede bottoms. But they can last longer than expected.

Historical Context

This is the fourth major Bitcoin crash in a decade:

2014: Mt. Gox → 70% decline → recovered in 18 months
2018: ICO bubble → 74% decline → recovered in 36 months
2021-2022: FTX → 77% decline → recovered in 24 months
2026: Current → 44% decline (and counting) → TBD

Each time, Bitcoin bounced back and made new highs.

We’re in the capitulation phase. But capitulation doesn’t announce the bottom.

When Does the Debasement Trade Work Again?

Five signals to watch:

1. Geopolitical Clarity

Once outcomes become known (even if negative), uncertainty collapses.

Watch for:

• Trade war resolutions

• Iran situation clarifies

• Policy becomes predictable

Markets don’t need good news. They need clarity.

2. DXY Peaks

When the Dollar Index peaks around 107-110 and reverses, it signals flight-to-safety demand is exhausting.

Historical pattern:

• March 2020: DXY peaked at 103 → BTC bottomed at $3,800

• Sept 2022: DXY peaked at 114 → BTC bottomed at $15,500

Watch for: DXY failing at resistance, declining below 105

3. Risk Appetite Returns

Bitcoin follows broader risk sentiment.

Signals:

• Nasdaq stabilizes

• VIX falls below 20

• High-beta assets rally

• Growth stocks find support

You can’t fight Bitcoin’s correlation until it breaks.

4. ETF Flows Resume

Institutional flows are the marginal buyer.

Watch for:

• Consistent positive ETF inflows for 2-3 weeks

• Rising trade volumes

• Institutional accumulation in on-chain data

When smart money returns, conditions are improving.

5. Bitcoin Reclaims $70k+

Technical levels reveal market structure.

Key levels:

• $70,000: First major resistance

• $80,000: Partial recovery of recent decline

Don’t try to catch the bottom. Wait for confirmation.

How to Position

If You’re a Trader:

Current structure is bearish.

• Below $70k with no clear support

• Momentum negative

• Sentiment extreme fear

Wait for:

• DXY peaking

• Risk-on returning

• Bitcoin reclaiming $70k

• 2-3 signals confirming

Don’t catch falling knives.

If You’re an Investor:

Extreme fear is historically a buying zone. But timing matters.

The approach:

• Dollar-cost average if conviction remains

• Don’t panic-sell at lows

• Maintain dry powder for lower levels

• Think in years, not months

Every major crash has been followed by recovery.

If You’re on the Sidelines:

Best position to be in.

The approach:

• Watch for the five signals

• Don’t FOMO before conditions shift

• Scale in when 2-3 signals confirm

• Have a plan for entry levels

Opportunity forms in chaos. Wait for stabilisation.

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin below $70k with a weak dollar and crypto-friendly admin seems contradictory.

It’s not.

What’s happening:

Short-term forces override long-term fundamentals:

• Geopolitical chaos → risk-off sentiment

• Bitcoin correlating with tech, not gold

• ETF flows dried up (no buyer)

• No government price support

• Forced liquidations cascading

But the debasement thesis isn’t broken. It’s mistimed.

The pattern repeats: Fear → Capitulation → Bottoming → Recovery → New highs

We’re in Fear/Capitulation now.

Five signals to watch:

1. Geopolitical clarity

2. DXY peaks

3. Risk appetite returns

4. ETF flows resume

5. Bitcoin reclaims $70k+

When 2-3 confirm, risk/reward shifts.

Until then: Patience > panic.

The debasement trade will work again. Just not yet.

This is how I’m thinking about Bitcoin’s current setup heading into Q1 2026.

If this framework was useful, leave a comment and let me know. I’ll keep sharing these breakdowns weekly.

Follow for free macro analysis.

Thanks for reading.

All the best,
Kim

Disclaimer: This newsletter is written and distributed for educational purposes only. All views expressed are my own. Nothing in this newsletter is to be taken as financial advice or recommendation for any investment.

Kim here.

If you don’t understand the DXY, you’re trading crypto with one eye closed.

This breakdown shows you how the dollar quietly dictates risk, liquidity, and why moves happen before price confirms anything.

1. What Is the DXY?

The Dollar Index (DXY) measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF).

• DXY rising → the dollar is strengthening

• DXY falling → the dollar is weakening

That’s it. No mystique.

2. Why the DXY Matters for Crypto

Crypto and the dollar tend to move inversely (not always, but often).

Why?

Because crypto is a risk asset, and the dollar is the world’s primary safety asset.

When the dollar strengthens:

• Global liquidity tightens

• Risk appetite drops

• Capital moves toward safety

Result: pressure on crypto prices

3. The Mechanism (Taking Greenland as an Example)

Geopolitical tension (Greenland)
→ Increased uncertainty
→ Flight to safety
→ Dollar strengthens (DXY up)
→ Risk assets reprice lower (crypto down)

This, is the critical pattern that repeats.

4. How to Read the DXY for Crypto Signals

Use the DXY as a macro filter, not a trade trigger.

A simple framework:

• DXY above 105 → Headwind for crypto
  Strong dollar = tight liquidity

• DXY between 100–105 → Neutral zone

• DXY below 100 → Tailwind for crypto
  Weak dollar = loose liquidity

Key levels to watch:

• 103 → important resistance

• 100 → major structural support

5. When the DXY Signals a Reversal

This is where it gets interesting.

Historically:

• DXY peaking often precedes crypto bottoms

• DXY rolling over signals capital rotating back into risk

You’ll frequently see:

• Dollar weakness before crypto strength

• Not after

Macro leads. Price follows.

6. How to Position Accordingly

You don’t need complexity. You need discipline.

• Track the DXY daily (30 seconds)

• When DXY is rising:

  • Reduce leverage

  • Avoid forcing trades

  • Let setups come to you

• When DXY peaks or reverses:

  • Start watching for high-quality crypto entries

  • Expect opportunity to expand

Rule of thumb:
Don’t fight the DXY trend.

Final Thought

Most traders react to price.
Strong traders understand why price moves.

The DXY isn’t optional macro knowledge anymore.
It’s part of the edge.

All the best,
Kim

Disclaimer: This newsletter is written and distributed for educational purposes only. All views expressed are my own. Nothing in this newsletter is to be taken as financial advice or recommendation for any investment.

Kim here.

When gold outperforms Bitcoin by this much, I pay attention. Here's what's really happening and what crypto investors need to understand about this divergence.

The Numbers Tell an Interesting Story

Let’s start with what happened in 2025:

Gold climbed 70% in USD terms over the past year. That’s not just impressive, it’s one of the strongest runs precious metals have had in over a decade.

Bitcoin dropped 17% in the same period. Not a crash, but definitely sideways action when many expected a breakout.

Here’s what’s interesting: both assets were responding to the same macro environment. Yet the capital flow split decisively in one direction.

Understanding why gold attracted so much capital this year might reveal opportunities you’re missing.

What Made Gold So Attractive in 2025?

The traditional finance world piled into gold for specific, repeatable reasons:

Central bank buying hit record levels. China, India, and emerging market central banks accumulated gold at the fastest pace since the 1970s. When nation-states buy, it signals a long-term macro shift.

Geopolitical premium expanded massively. Trump’s tariff escalations, China tensions, Middle East instability -> all classic gold catalysts. The “chaos premium” in gold pricing jumped to levels not seen since 2020.

Real yields stayed attractive. Even with interest rates elevated, inflation adjusted returns made gold competitive with bonds. For risk off capital, that’s compelling.

The institutional bid was relentless. Gold ETFs saw consistent inflows. Hedge funds added positions. Family offices diversified into physical bullion.

Gold did what it’s always done but the conditions were perfect for it to shine.

Why Bitcoin Responded Differently

Bitcoin faced a unique set of headwinds that had nothing to do with its fundamentals failing:

The “institutional legitimacy” trade already happened. BlackRock’s ETF launched. Fidelity got involved. That narrative already priced in. There was no new catalyst to drive the next leg up.

Regulatory clarity removed the speculation premium. When crypto becomes “safe” and regulated, you lose some of the asymmetric upside that early adopters bet on. Bitcoin became predictable.

Macro correlation shifted. Bitcoin started trading more like a tech stock than a hedge. When Nvidia and AI stocks pulled back, BTC followed. The correlation to risk-on assets increased.

The revolutionary narrative matured. Bitcoin doesn’t need to prove itself anymore, it won. But winning means the 100x moonshot potential is behind us. Now it’s about steady adoption, not explosive discovery.

This isn’t Bitcoin breaking. It’s Bitcoin maturing into a different phase.

October: When the Divergence Became Obvious

October 2025 crystalized the difference:

Trump escalated tariff threats against China. Markets got nervous. Capital had to choose between gold and Bitcoin as a hedge.

Gold absorbed the defensive bid. Bitcoin traded sideways.

This wasn’t Bitcoin failing, it was gold proving it still owns the “flight to safety” narrative. Decades of institutional memory associate gold with protection. Bitcoin is still building that reputation.

Silver rallied alongside gold. Commodities saw inflows. The traditional macro playbook worked exactly as expected.

Bitcoin played a different game entirely. It didn’t need to be the crisis hedge. It held value, maintained liquidity, and waited for its own catalysts.

The Real Question: Should You Care About Gold?

Here’s where this gets interesting for crypto investors:

Gold’s rally isn’t competing with your Bitcoin thesis. They’re solving different problems for different capital pools.

Gold attracts:

• Central banks building reserves

• Pension funds seeking stability

• Boomers who trust 5,000 years of history

• Family offices hedging currency debasement

Bitcoin attracts:

• Tech forward investors betting on the future

• Younger demographics who distrust traditional finance

• Portfolios seeking asymmetric upside

• People who want programmable, portable wealth

The capital flows that drove gold to 70% aren’t the same flows that drive Bitcoin. You’re not competing for the same investor.

What Gold’s Performance Actually Signals

Gold’s monster year tells you something important about macro conditions:

1. Real uncertainty is high
When gold rips like this, institutional money is genuinely nervous. That’s a signal worth watching. It means powerful players see risks you might be discounting.

2. Currency debasement fears are live
Gold rallies when people worry about fiat purchasing power. That’s the exact same thesis that supports Bitcoin long-term. Gold is just the older, more established play on that trade.

3. Geopolitical risk premiums are expanding
The chaos premium is back. Whether that flows into gold or Bitcoin depends on the investor, but both assets benefit when traditional markets feel unstable.

4. Alternative assets are in favor
When gold performs this well, it signals that diversification away from equities is working. That’s a tailwind for all non correlated assets, including crypto.

Gold’s success validates the macro thesis Bitcoin is built on. It’s just expressing it through a different asset.

How to Think About Both Assets

Here’s the framework that makes sense:

Gold is the established hedge. It has centuries of proof, instant liquidity, and zero technology risk. If you need to convince a skeptical CFO or a risk averse partner, gold is the easy sell.

Bitcoin is the asymmetric bet. It has revolutionary upside, scarce supply, and network effects that gold can’t match. If you’re building a portfolio for the next decade, Bitcoin offers what gold doesn’t.

The best portfolios might hold both. They serve different purposes:

Gold for:

• Immediate crisis protection

• Regulatory free safe haven

• Multi generational wealth preservation

Bitcoin for:

• Long-term appreciation potential

• Monetary network effects

• Hedge against digital future/CBDCs

• Programmable, portable wealth

You don’t have to choose. Capital isn’t binary.

What This Year Teaches Crypto Investors

Lesson 1: Macro matters
Gold rallied because macro conditions favored it. Bitcoin will have its turn when different conditions align. Understanding what drives traditional safe havens helps you anticipate what drives crypto.

Lesson 2: Time horizons differ
Gold wins in 12 month sprints during chaos. Bitcoin wins in 4 year cycles during adoption waves. Don’t compare short term performance and draw long term conclusions.

Lesson 3: Narratives take time
Gold has a 5,000 year narrative as a safe haven. Bitcoin has a 15 year narrative. The institutional bid for gold is automatic; for Bitcoin it’s still being built. That’s not weakness it’s opportunity.

Lesson 4: Diversification still works
If you’re 100% crypto and gold ripped 70% while you were flat, you missed a diversification opportunity. Alternative assets can coexist in smart portfolios.

Here’s What You Should Actually Do

Action step 1: Study why gold rallied
Understanding the catalysts that drove gold helps you identify when similar conditions might favor Bitcoin. Central bank behavior, currency concerns, geopolitical escalation, these are signals.

Action step 2: Consider tactical allocation
If macro uncertainty stays elevated, a small gold position (5-10%) might make sense alongside your crypto holdings. Not as a replacement, as a complement for different market conditions.

Action step 3: Track correlation shifts
Watch how Bitcoin correlates with tech stocks vs. gold. When correlation with gold increases, it signals Bitcoin is being treated as a macro hedge again. That’s when explosive moves happen.

Action step 4: Zoom out
Gold’s 70% year is impressive. Bitcoin’s 4 year CAGR is still higher. Don’t let one year’s performance shake your long term thesis if the fundamentals haven’t changed.

The bottom line: Gold had its year. That doesn’t mean Bitcoin’s thesis broke, it means different assets perform in different conditions. Smart investors understand both.

All the best,
Kim

Question for you: Are you considering adding any gold exposure after seeing this performance, or staying full conviction in crypto? What’s your take on holding both?

Drop your thoughts below, genuinely curious how crypto native investors are processing this.

Leave a comment

Disclaimer: This newsletter is written and distributed for educational purposes only. All views expressed are my own. Nothing in this newsletter is to be taken as financial advice or recommendation for any investment.

There are few certainties in life.

One of them is this:

Uncertainty is unavoidable.

In economics, uncertainty isn’t just a feeling, it’s a variable that directly affects decision-making, capital allocation, and risk pricing.

Nowhere is this more visible than in geopolitics.

Geopolitics as an Economic Constraint

At a macro level, countries are economic agents.

Each one is optimizing for:

• Growth

• Stability

• Resource security

But unlike individuals, countries face structural constraints:

• Some rely heavily on manufacturing and exports

• Others lack energy, food, or strategic resources

• Some depend on financial inflows or reserve currencies

These imbalances create dependency, and dependency creates friction.

From an economic standpoint, this friction is best understood as geopolitical risk, a form of exogenous uncertainty that sits outside traditional market fundamentals.

The Key Idea: Risk vs Uncertainty

Frank Knight famously distinguished between risk and uncertainty:

• Risk is measurable. You can assign probabilities.

• Uncertainty is not. Outcomes are unknown and unquantifiable.

Markets can price risk.
Markets cannot comfortably price uncertainty.

Geopolitical events fall squarely into the second category.

Why Markets React the Same Way Every Time

Whether it’s Venezuela, Iran, or strategic tensions elsewhere, the mechanism is consistent.

When uncertainty rises:

• Expected returns become harder to model

• Volatility rises

• Required risk premia increase

In response, capital reallocates according to modern portfolio theory:

• Away from assets with high variance and uncertain cash flows

• Toward assets with perceived stability, liquidity, and historical resilience

This is why we repeatedly observe:

• Increased demand for USD (global settlement + reserve currency)

• Capital flows into gold and silver (non-yielding but uncertainty-hedging assets)

• Reduced short-term demand for risk assets, including crypto

Crypto isn’t being “punished” emotionally, it’s being repriced under uncertainty.

Liquidity Preference & the Flight to Safety

Keynes described this behaviour through liquidity preference theory.

When uncertainty spikes, investors value:

• Liquidity

• Capital preservation

• Optionality

In simple terms:
People prefer assets they can easily exit when the future feels unclear.

Crypto, despite its long-term promise, still sits on the higher end of the liquidity-risk spectrum, particularly during geopolitical stress.

Opportunity Doesn’t Disappear, It Rotates

This doesn’t mean markets go quiet.

It means leadership rotates.

Periods of elevated geopolitical risk historically favour:

• Commodities

• Precious metals

• Energy

• Defensive positioning

This is why commodities have been one of the strongest performers during recent geopolitical stress.

Capital doesn’t leave markets, it changes its objective.

So When Does This Pressure Ease?

The key question isn’t whether geopolitical risk matters, it’s how long it persists.

Here, time horizon matters.

Under administrations that favour rapid, decisive action, uncertainty may be:

• Sharper

• More intense

• But shorter-lived

From an economic perspective, this compresses uncertainty into tighter windows, which can allow markets to normalize faster once outcomes become clearer.

Markets don’t need good news.
They need clarity.

What This Means for Crypto

• Short term:
  Geopolitical uncertainty suppresses risk appetite and limits speculative inflows.

• Medium term:
  As uncertainty resolves, capital can rotate back into higher-beta assets.

• Long term:
  Crypto’s trajectory remains driven by adoption, regulation, and network effects, not geopolitical headlines.

Uncertainty delays risk-taking.
It doesn’t eliminate structural trends.

Periods of uncertainty tend to reward patience and perspective.

This is how I’m thinking about geopolitics and crypto as we head into 2026.

If this framework was useful, feel free to pass it on to someone who might benefit.

Share

Thanks for reading.

Kim

Disclaimer: This newsletter is written and distributed for educational purposes only. All views expressed are my own. Nothing in this newsletter is to be taken as financial advice or recommendation for any investment.

Institutional macro + crypto market structure = the edge most traders miss.

Here’s how I’m thinking about 2026.

Why This Matters

Institutions are now fully embedded in crypto markets. They drive liquidity. They move price.

If you want to compete as a trader or investor, you need to understand how they think. That’s the edge.

Having seen both sides of the market, my goal is to bridge that gap.

2025 Recap: Where We’re Coming From

Before looking ahead, it’s important to understand where we landed.

Theme 1: Mainstream adoption accelerated

Early 2025 marked a shift in crypto’s cultural relevance, highlighted by the launch of the $TRUMP memecoin and the increasing role crypto played in U.S. political discourse.

This was further reinforced by the establishment of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and Circle’s IPO on the NYSE under the ticker $CRCL.

Crypto was no longer niche. It was institutional and political.

For those of us who’ve been here through the cycles, this wasn’t hype. It was validation.

Theme 2: The post-summer rally

In early October 2025, Bitcoin pushed to a new all-time high following weeks of steady upside.

The driver was clear:

• Growing expectations of interest rate cuts

• Weakening demand for the U.S. dollar

Liquidity expectations improved, and risk appetite followed.

Theme 3: The reversal

By mid-October, sentiment shifted.

Tariff announcements, tightening financial conditions, and crowded leverage led to a sharp risk-off move across equities, crypto, and commodities. Liquidity contracted quickly.

Since then, markets have operated under a cloud of uncertainty.

The View for 2026

I break this into two practical steps.

Step 1: What All Traders Must Do

2025 made one thing clear:

Crypto markets are reacting almost entirely to interest rate policy.

That means you should know exactly when interest rate decisions are announced.

The 2026 FOMC dates are:

• January 28

• March 18

• April 29

• June 17

• July 29

• September 16

• October 28

• December 9

On these days, the interest rate decision is released at 2pm Eastern Time.

Action: Convert 2pm Eastern Time into your local time. Block these dates in your calendar and label them “FOMC, no trade zone”.

These are eight days per year. You have over 300 others.

There is no reason to risk a proven, data-backed strategy during periods when volatility is driven by policy headlines and the usual rules stop applying.

Step 2: What Investors Must Consider

Now let’s take an empirical approach.

The October rally had a clear driver: increasing expectations of rate cuts.

The downturn had the opposite driver: diminishing expectations of rate cuts.

So the key macro question for 2026 is simple:

When is the next interest rate cut most likely?

Fortunately, this isn’t guesswork.

The CME FedWatch Tool provides live probabilities for upcoming FOMC outcomes. Based on current pricing, the next rate cut is most likely to occur at either the April or June meeting.

That immediately narrows the window where demand for risk assets could meaningfully increase.

Now layer in a second factor: A new Fed Chair is expected to be appointed in May.

If that appointment is a more dovish, pro-growth figure, the probability of rate cuts and liquidity expansion rises further.

The 2026 Macro Thesis

Putting this together:

• A medium-probability upside window around May–June, aligned with expected rate cuts

• A higher-impact upside scenario if a dovish Fed Chair is appointed during the same period

This is the framework I’ll be using to think about crypto in 2026.

This is how I’m positioning for 2026.

If this framework is useful, share it with a trader who needs to see it:

Share

Thanks for reading.

Kim

Disclaimer: This newsletter is written and distributed for educational purposes only. All views expressed are my own. Nothing in this newsletter is to be taken as financial advice or recommendation for any investment.

Bitcoin has been locked in a tight range around $90k; dipping below it, reclaiming it, but never breaking out with conviction.

No real relief. No real breakdown.
Just tension.

This kind of price behaviour usually tells you one thing:

The market is waiting for a catalyst.

So what’s the catalyst this time?

From a macro perspective, the most likely scenario is simple:

👉 Bitcoin stays in this range until the next FOMC meeting
👉 Happening on 10 December 2025, just 10 days from now

Right now, traders are caught in a macro tug-of-war:

• Bears are betting the Fed will not cut rates.

• Bulls believe a cut is coming.

Remember:

Rate cuts = more liquidity = more risk appetite = more crypto demand.
That’s why a rate cut is the bullish outcome for crypto.

Where does the tug-of-war stand today?

The bulls are in control, with an 86% probability of a rate cut priced in.

And you can literally see this show up in Bitcoin:

• Every time bulls gain ground → BTC pushes above $90k

• Every time bears push back → BTC slips back below $90k

It’s extremely reactive right now, because positioning is live and recalibrating in real-time as macro expectations shift.

What happens next?

The real resolution likely arrives on 10 December:

• Powell’s tone will dictate which “army” collapses.

• A dovish, “economy is stabilising” message could spark a late-year Santa Rally.

• More cautious language would keep liquidity expectations contained, but still favors the bulls as long as cuts remain on the table.

Either way, that’s when the stalemate breaks.

Until then, expect compression, fakeouts, and choppy conditions, all behaviour typical before major macro events.

Until next time,
KimTalksCrypto

Disclaimer: This newsletter is written and distributed for educational purposes only. All views expressed are my own. Nothing in this newsletter is to be taken as financial advice or recommendation for any investment.

Let’s break down the current price action, without the noise.

1️⃣ Institutions Have Stopped Buying

The rally of the last year was mostly institution-driven. Retail hasn’t truly returned yet and that leaves price action vulnerable.

Over the past week:

• Global crypto investment products saw $2B in outflows, the biggest weekly drop since February.

• 97% of these outflows came from the U.S.

• Bitcoin ETFs saw consistent net selling rather than accumulation.

In simple terms:
The buyers who moved the market up are not stepping in right now.

2️⃣ Why Institutions Pulled Back: Rate-Cut Uncertainty

The shift comes down to one thing: monetary policy uncertainty.

Markets currently expect no rate cut at the final FOMC meeting of the year:

• 55% probability of no cut

• 45% probability of a 25bps cut

But here’s the important bit:

One month ago, markets were pricing a 94% chance of a rate cut.
Investors were almost certain easing was coming.

That optimism has evaporated.

Rate cuts are fuel for risk assets like Bitcoin, they make holding cash less attractive. When that probability collapses, so does near-term demand for BTC.

3️⃣ Crypto-Native Sellers Are Adding Pressure

It’s not just institutions stepping back.

We’re seeing:

• Large holders trimming exposure

• Crypto-native funds securing profits

• Short-term traders reacting emotionally

The combination exaggerates downside volatility.

4️⃣ What This Means for Traders

For many newer market participants, this kind of pullback triggers panic.
But for those who’ve lived through more than one cycle, the framing is completely different.

Corrections always feel uncomfortable in the moment.
But historically:

• These periods create the best accumulation opportunities

• The loudest panic usually comes from people who later complain they “got in too late”

• Markets repeatedly punish emotional decisions

The question becomes:
Do you want to follow the crowd, or follow the data?

This isn’t a time for fear, it’s a time for clarity.

5️⃣ What Flips The Market Back Up?

Three things:

1. A clear pivot or rate-cut confirmation

2. Fresh inflows from institutions as uncertainty fades

3. Retail re-entering the market once confidence returns

Until then, volatility is normal, not a threat.
This is crypto. Cycles are part of the game.

Until next time,
KimTalksCrypto

Disclaimer: This newsletter is written and distributed for educational purposes only. All views expressed are my own. Nothing in this newsletter is to be taken as financial advice or recommendation for any investment.

What a weekend.

Billions in crypto positions were wiped out.
Bitcoin fell $3,000 in minutes.
Many traders got caught on the wrong side of the move.
A few… made $192 million in half an hour.

So what really happened and what does it mean for you?

1️⃣ The Trigger: A Shock Tariff Announcement

Late Friday afternoon, after traditional markets had already closed, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he would impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting November 1.

It was an escalation in the ongoing trade tension between the two biggest economies in the world.

China had recently imposed export controls on rare metals critical for manufacturing particularly semiconductors, EVs, and defense technology.
The U.S. responded with tariffs.

And when the stock market was closed… crypto became the pressure valve.

2️⃣ The Flash Crash

Liquidity was thin.
Leverage was high.
Algorithms reacted faster than humans could.

Bitcoin dropped by $3,000 almost instantly.
Billions were liquidated across exchanges.

Meanwhile, one insider wallet reportedly made $192 million in just 30 minutes.
Binance lagged, Hyperliquid profited, and Coinglass was attacked.
Analysts compared the speed of the move to the COVID-19 crash.

3️⃣ The Manipulation Question

Was this manipulation? Maybe.
But here’s the uncomfortable truth, every market is manipulated to some degree.

The stock market.
The bond market.
The currency market.

The game is what the game is.
Our job is to learn the rules and play them better than the rest.

4️⃣ The Lesson for Traders

If your psychology is strong, moments like this don’t destroy you.
If it isn’t, they reveal where your risk management is weakest.

Events like these aren’t just financial test, they’re emotional audits.

They show:

• How well you handle volatility.

• Whether you respect your stop-losses.

• Whether you panic when others do.

If you lost money this weekend, don’t spiral. You’re either:

1️⃣ A consistently profitable trader (you survived), or
2️⃣ Not yet consistent (you just got feedback).

Both are fine.
Just don’t stay in between.

5️⃣ The Macro Outlook

In the short term, expect volatility as traditional markets open and digest the news.

In the medium term, much depends on how politics plays out.
If the U.S. and China walk this back, risk assets could recover.
If not, brace for more turbulence across equities, crypto, and commodities alike.

The reality is that these two economies need each other.
Trade wars sound tough, until the domestic pain kicks in.

Economic theory is clear: free trade creates the highest total welfare.
Tariffs create winners and losers… and volatility.

6️⃣ The Human Side

If you’re feeling shaken by this move, you’re not alone.
Check in on your trading friends.
Events like this can be emotionally draining.

Sometimes, the best trade is a day off.

7️⃣ Final Thoughts

Keep learning macro.
Keep mastering risk management and trading psychology.
That’s how you thrive, even in a rigged game.

Until next time,
KimTalksCrypto

Disclaimer: This newsletter is written and distributed for educational purposes only. All views expressed are my own. Nothing in this newsletter is to be taken as financial advice or recommendation for any investment.

Over the past few weeks, I’ve been getting the same question from students:

“When is it the altcoins’ turn to pump?”

And it’s a fair question. Just consider the data:

Since November ’24, Bitcoin has pumped +64%… while altcoins have dumped –35%.

Instead of the classic BTC → ETH → Altcoin rotation, money has stalled at Ethereum, with only a few isolated alts moving.

So why hasn’t the altcoin cycle kicked in yet?

1️⃣ Why This Cycle Is Different: Institutions Dominate

In 2017 and 2021, altcoin pumps were retail-driven. This time, institutions are in control.

• BlackRock, Fidelity, and other ETFs now hold over 7% of all Bitcoin.

• Together, BTC + ETH ETFs manage $175B+ in assets.

Institutions don’t chase meme coins. They move slowly, following quarterly reports, Fed policy, and global liquidity conditions.

That’s why BTC and ETH now trade more like risk assets alongside the S&P500 and Nasdaq.

Result? The institutional money flow stops at ETH. It doesn’t cascade into the long tail of altcoins.

2️⃣ Retail Hasn’t Returned (Yet)

Alt seasons have always been tidal waves of retail liquidity.

In 2017 and 2021, it was retail that sent meme coins parabolic. Institutions didn’t buy Shiba Inu or random TikTok coins - retail did.

But today:

• Confidence was crushed after FTX, Luna, and endless scams.

• High interest rates, sticky inflation, and cost of living crises have drained disposable income.

• The retail base that remains is cautious, sticking to BTC and ETH.

Without retail, there is no broad altcoin mania.

3️⃣ Signs of Retail Interest

So how will we know when retail is back?

• Social media engagement: Watch for TikTok, YouTube, and Twitter/X crypto content spiking in views. The “dog coin to 100x” videos are an early sign.

• Coinbase app rankings: Every cycle, Coinbase app downloads surge when retail piles back in. A rising rank in the App Store/Google Play is a reliable canary.

• On-chain activity: Retail-driven meme coins and low-cap tokens suddenly showing massive wallet inflows and transactions.

When these indicators light up together, retail is re-entering and alt season is on deck.

4️⃣ The Fed & The Floodgates

But here’s the bigger picture: retail needs cash to speculate.

Right now, liquidity is tight. Even though the Fed has started cutting rates, disposable income is still squeezed. Altcoin seasons don’t start immediately after a rate cut, they build as liquidity expands through the system.

💡 Translation: No Fed floodgates, no alt season.

🧭 Final Take: Sit and Wait

This cycle is different.

• Institutions drive BTC + ETH

• Altcoins depend on retail

• And retail won’t come back until macro conditions improve and a new narrative catches fire

Until then? Sit tight. Focus on quality, position smartly, and watch the retail interest.

What narrative do you think will spark the next retail wave? Reply and let me know, I’ll feature the best insights in the next issue.

Until next time,
KimTalksCrypto

Disclaimer: This newsletter is written and distributed for educational purposes only. All views expressed are my own. Nothing in this newsletter is to be taken as financial advice or recommendation for any investment.

Last week’s FOMC meeting went broadly as expected but the details tell a more interesting story.

🔹 The move → A 25bp cut, bringing the Fed funds rate to 4.00–4.25%.
🔹 The tone → Powell framed it as a cautious “risk management cut.”
🔹 Market reaction → BTC shrugged, muted price action.

Powell’s Balancing Act

Powell made it clear the Fed is trying to walk a tightrope:

• Labor market → He emphasized the risk of further weakening, noting minority unemployment is already rising and “we don’t need it to soften anymore.”

• Inflation → Goods prices are the main driver of the recent uptick (CPI at 2.9% YoY, largest gain since January). Powell warned these pressures could “build into 2026.”

• Tariffs → So far, companies have absorbed Trump’s new tariffs, but Powell expects costs to filter through to consumers later this year.

This mix of risks explains why Powell is easing cautiously rather than aggressively.

The Political Drama

The headline surprise wasn’t the cut itself, it was the lone dissent.

• The vote was 11–1.

• Stephen Miran, Trump’s newest Fed appointee, dissented in favor of a larger 50bp cut.

• His dot plot projections suggest he wants more half-point cuts this year, with policy rates falling below 3%.

This sharp contrast sets up a clear tension:

• Powell’s Fed → cautious, step-by-step easing.

• Trump’s camp → pushing for steeper, faster cuts.

Powell even noted: “There wasn’t widespread support at all for a 50bp cut today.”

What It Means for Traders

Markets currently price in ~90% odds of another 25bp cut at the next meeting. But the divide inside the Fed (and pressure from the White House) means volatility could flare if inflation or jobs data surprise.

For crypto, the implication is simple:

• A slow, steady cutting path keeps liquidity drip-fed into the system → neutral to mildly bullish.

• A sudden pivot toward Trump-style deeper cuts would be far more explosive → but also riskier.

Bottom Line

👉 “Steady as she goes” - for now.

But don’t get lulled by BTC’s muted reaction. The mix of tariffs, inflation stickiness, and political pressure makes this one of the more uncertain macro backdrops in years. If the Fed bends faster than Powell is signaling, that’s when markets (crypto included) could really move.

Until next time,
KimTalksCrypto

Disclaimer: This newsletter is written and distributed for educational purposes only. All views expressed are my own. Nothing in this newsletter is to be taken as financial advice or recommendation for any investment.

The next big macro event for crypto traders is just around the corner: the FOMC on Sept 17th, 2025.

A few years ago you might’ve been able to ignore this stuff. Not anymore. Trading blind to what the Fed is doing means you’re missing one of the strongest drivers of liquidity, and liquidity is what fuels crypto.

Here’s what’s going on 👇

🔹 What the Market Expects

• Current Fed Funds Rate: 4.25–4.50%

• 93% chance of landing at 4.00–4.25% (25 bps cut)

• 7% chance of landing at 3.75–4.00% (50 bps cut)

Source: CME FedWatch Tool

Translation: A rate cut is fully priced in. The real question is the size.

🔹 How Expectations Have Shifted

Source: CME FedWatch Tool

One month ago:

• 92% odds of a 25 bps cut

• 8% odds of no change

Today:

• 93% odds of a 25 bps cut

• 7% odds of a 50 bps cut

In short: the “no cut” camp has disappeared. Better inflation data + a stabilizing macro backdrop have investors more confident that the Fed can ease without losing control.

And easing = more liquidity = historically bullish for crypto.

🔹 Why the Decision Alone Isn’t Enough

Even if the Fed cuts rates, that’s just Step 1.
Two other pieces matter just as much:

1. The Chair’s Speech

   • Dovish language (“we can keep cutting, liquidity is coming”) → bullish

   • Hawkish language (“inflation risk remains, this cut is one-off”) → bearish

2. The Q&A

   • Live questions can swing markets in minutes.

   • Example: If Powell hints at stricter crypto regulation, it could erase bullish sentiment instantly, even after a rate cut.

🔹 The 3 Things You Need to Watch

1. Rate decision → a cut is bullish

2. Chair’s speech → dovish = bullish

3. Q&A session → neutral or positive on crypto is best

For a clear positive market reaction, all three need to align. If even one is hawkish, the upside can vanish. That’s why traders sometimes complain: “Why didn’t BTC pump after the cut?” → this is often the reason.

🔹 How to Approach It as a Trader

• Watch live (usually 2pm ET on YouTube)

• Decide in advance: trade the event, or stay flat for that volatile hour

• Either way, treat it as a learning opportunity. Track how each element (cut, speech, Q&A) affects BTC and ETH. That playbook will be gold for the next Fed meeting.

Bottom line: The Sept 17th FOMC isn’t just about the rate cut. It’s about the full picture: the decision, the tone, and the Q&A. Get all three right, and you’ll understand the flows driving crypto in real time.

Until next time,
KimTalksCrypto

Disclaimer: This newsletter is written and distributed for educational purposes only. All views expressed are my own. Nothing in this newsletter is to be taken as financial advice or recommendation for any investment.

Last Friday (Sept 6th), crypto traders had reason to smile. Bitcoin and ETH both pushed higher but this wasn’t just random price action. The move came right after U.S. jobs data dropped, and the numbers were a shocker.

• 🔹 August non-farm payrolls: 22K vs 75K expected

• 🔹 Prior month revised down: 74K → 33K

• 🔹 Unemployment: 4.3% (a four-year high)

Source: FX Street Economic Calendar

Translation: U.S. job growth has basically stalled.

Why does this matter for us in crypto?

Because weaker jobs = weaker economy → higher chance of interest rate cuts at the next Fed meeting (Sept 17th).

Here’s the quick breakdown:

• Lower rates = cheaper borrowing → more liquidity

• More liquidity = more demand for risk assets like crypto & stocks

• Historically, BTC thrives when liquidity returns

Markets are now pricing in:

• 25 bps cut almost certain

• 50 bps cut suddenly on the table

Source: CME Group

That’s why Friday’s rally wasn’t just hype, it was traders front-running liquidity returning.

And it wasn’t just crypto:

• The U.S. dollar (DXY) sold off hard (risk-off money leaving safety)

• Stocks rallied

• Bond yields shifted lower

All pointing in the same direction: markets expect easier policy ahead.

⚠️ A caveat: crypto isn’t the same beast it was five years ago. With institutions dominating, don’t expect manic upside. But even steadier flows are bullish in a market that’s been starved of liquidity for two years.

If the Fed follows through, this could mark the beginning of the end of the high-rate era that’s weighed on crypto.

Until next time,
KimTalksCrypto

Disclaimer: This newsletter is written and distributed for educational purposes only. All views expressed are my own. Nothing in this newsletter is to be taken as financial advice or recommendation for any investment.

Bitcoin recently broke out of its multi-month range to hit new all-time highs at $109.4K and it wasn’t just price that surged.

We also saw $3.6B in net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, a clear signal that institutional interest isn’t just back - it’s accelerating.

Treasury-focused firms like Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy and the newly launched Twenty One Capital added aggressively to their BTC reserves.

Meanwhile, the regulatory environment continues to shift in Bitcoin’s favor - with the U.S. Senate advancing a stablecoin bill, and several states and even sovereign nations moving toward holding BTC as part of their reserves.

But the real question:
Will this leg higher fizzle out, or is there macro support for more upside?

Let’s look at the chart:

🔹 The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has weakened
🔹 Long-term yields (10Y and 30Y) are pushing higher
🔹 Bitcoin is moving in sync with yields - not the dollar

To be specific:

• 30Y yields have crossed 5%

• 10Y yields are around 4.5%

• DXY has dropped below 99

What does this mean?

The U.S. dollar is typically seen as the world’s safest currency - a go-to during risk-off environments.

When DXY is rising, markets are fearful. When it’s falling, risk appetite is returning.

So, the drop in DXY = less fear
And Bitcoin thrives in risk-on conditions.

Meanwhile, rising yields signal that investors are demanding higher returns - not just safety. In panicked environments, people are willing to accept near-zero yield just to preserve capital. But today, they’re saying:

“We want yield. We’re open to risk.”

That’s a green light for Bitcoin.

Until next time,
KimTalksCrypto

Disclaimer: This newsletter is written and distributed for educational purposes only. All views expressed are my own. Nothing in this newsletter is to be taken as financial advice or recommendation for any investment.

The stage is set.

• Crypto is consolidating near $3 trillion.

• Bitcoin is hovering around $95,000.

• Analysts are eyeing a breakout.

So what’s the macro road to 100K BTC really made of?

1. Institutional Flows Are Heating Up

Institutions move markets. And right now, they're showing up.

We just saw an eight-day streak of spot Bitcoin ETF inflows - totalling nearly $3 billion.
That’s one of the strongest signals of institutional conviction we've seen this cycle.

When ETF inflows rise, it means capital is flowing in - investors are buying shares, betting on price appreciation.
Outflows, on the other hand, reflect fear, profit-taking, or a shift to risk-off.

For spot Bitcoin ETFs, big inflows = direct buy pressure on BTC. It’s one of the cleanest ways to track institutional appetite in real time.

📈 The road to $100K? Paved with inflows.

2. Whale Activity Signals Accumulation

The average BTC funding rate turned negative last week - only the fourth time in the past two years.

That’s rare.

Historically, each of these periods preceded strong upward moves in price.
Negative funding typically suggests whale accumulation and strategic positioning -both on and off exchanges.

🐋 If history rhymes, whales are loading up before the next leg.

3. Macro Matters: Tariffs, Trade & Trump

Geopolitical risk is still in play.

This week, Trump acknowledged the political risks of his tariff agenda, even as he pushes forward.
While he claims progress with South Korea, India, Japan, and China, markets remain wary.

🤝 The road to $100K is smoother with diplomacy, not trade war headlines.

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin has been accumulating for months.

To see a clean breakout and sustained move above $100K, we’ll need:

• ✅ Institutional inflows to continue

• ✅ Whale accumulation to hold

• ✅ Macro stability to clear the path

We’re not there yet - but the signs are stacking up.

Until next time,
KimTalksCrypto

Disclaimer: This newsletter is written and distributed for educational purposes only. All views expressed are my own. Nothing in this newsletter is to be taken as financial advice or recommendation for any investment.

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding steady just below $85,000, but the real drama is unfolding in Washington. President Trump is reportedly considering firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, aiming to replace him with someone more dovish.

The question: could this move trigger a crypto bull run?

The Fed's Independence at Risk

Trump has intensified his criticism of Powell, stating that Powell's "termination cannot come fast enough" and demanding immediate interest rate cuts .

He has privately discussed replacing Powell with former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh .

However, Powell remains steadfast, emphasizing that the Fed's independence is "a matter of law" and that he cannot be removed "except for cause" .

Tariffs, Inflation, and Market Uncertainty

The ongoing tariff war is contributing to inflationary pressures, with the Yale Budget Lab estimating that these tariffs amount to an effective tax of $4,900 per household.

Powell has warned that these tariffs could lead to stagflation - a combination of stagnant growth and rising prices - complicating the Fed's ability to cut rates.

Traders Eye $90K–$100K Targets

Despite the uncertainty, traders are positioning for a potential rally.

Demand for call options at $90,000–$100,000 strikes for May and June expiration is increasing, signaling optimism about a possible Fed pivot .

However, there's also a surge in put options at $80,000, indicating hedging against potential declines.

The Bottom Line

While a more dovish Fed chair could lower rates and potentially boost Bitcoin in the short term, undermining the Fed's independence could introduce long-term volatility.

Bitcoin's current price stability reflects a market waiting for clarity.

Traders are bullish in the near term, but the long-term outlook depends on political developments and the Fed's response.

Until next time,
KimTalksCrypto

Disclaimer: This newsletter is written and distributed for educational purposes only. All views expressed are my own. Nothing in this newsletter is to be taken as financial advice or recommendation for any investment.