👋 Welcome Back, Traders

Two things flipped hard this week: oil ripped back above $92 on renewed Middle East tension, and the money that piled into tech and financials last week is bailing on both. XLE and XLV appear to be catching the bid, while XLK and XLP are getting sold. That’s this week’s rotation with a pulse, and it changes what we’re willing to pay for on this week’s board.

Last week’s board had doing work while oil faded to $83. Now WTI is back near $92 on fresh Iran-related supply fears in the Strait of Hormuz, and that move changes the math on anything energy-adjacent. If you were fading energy last week off that pullback, this is your reminder: commodities don’t care about your thesis timeline. The tape does what it wants, and this week it wants energy!

ES is holding above 7,700, NQ is sitting near 29,500, and VIX below 15 tells you the options market still isn’t scared, even with crude ripping and tech getting dumped. That gap between price action and positioning is the whole game this week: either VIX is right, and this rotation fades fast, or VIX is asleep and due for a wake-up call once that jobs number comes in.

That brings us to the key thing that matters most: tomorrow’s August jobs report. That print decides whether this rotation into energy and healthcare is the start of something structural or just a geopolitical scare that fades the second Gulf tensions cool off. Don’t get comfortable on either side until that number hits the tape!

📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

Previous Edition: Oil Fades to $83, Tech & Financials Take Over

is above entry and paying above $145, on track for T1 ($162). No need to touch anything here; let the structure do the work. Technically, it never entered the clear entry zone of $132-$134 after last Thursday, so if you missed the original entry, this one left without you. T1: $162 | T2: $192

Has come down and is now sitting below our entry zone of $77–$78, last around $72. No cost to waiting here; we only close out if the stop at $65 is hit. T1: $99 | T2: $123

Has dropped a little further below the entry zone of $196–$199, than we would have wanted. But it is now building a nice base above our stop and attempting to push back higher. Last around $191, patience is the trade as we look for our targets. T1: $228 | T2: $260

Also came down a little further than anticipated, but made a nice bounce above our stop zone and is now sitting slightly above the entry zone around $1,035.50, watching for confirmation toward T1 ($1,115). Still live if you haven’t taken it; wait for the trigger, don’t pay up above the zone just because it’s moving. T1: $1,115 | T2: $1,210

Has dropped perfectly, offering even better entries below our $12.00–$13.00 zone, last around $11.50. No cost to waiting here, as long as UEC makes a higher low here above $10.50 this setup stays intact. With the earnings catalyst still looming, this setup has potential. T1: $17.50 | T2: $23

Scoreboard: 2 already paying, 3 slightly below entry, but 0 stopped out is the key. No stops hit yet, and the board’s still working. It is early, but the process is doing exactly what it’s supposed to; no hot takes, just key levels and patience.

Hold the winners to their stated exits above, don’t manage a working trade out of boredom, and treat every stop as the system doing its job, not a reason to skip the next clean setup. Every setup from last issue is now accounted for above.

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📚 Weekly Insight: What Howard Marks Would Say About This Oil Spike

XLE ripped ~+4.0% this week. XLK dropped ~-0.6%. Oil hit fresh six-week highs on renewed Middle East tension, so the obvious read is “buy energy, sell tech, geopolitics is back.” As we have stressed before, that’s first-level thinking, and first-level thinking is exactly how retail money gets front-run every time a headline moves the tape. Renowned trader Howard Marks built a career on one idea: it’s not enough to figure out what’s true. You have to figure out what’s already priced in and how that differs from consensus! The crowd sees “Middle East tension, oil spikes, buy energy.” That is fine. But if that’s what everyone sees, it’s probably already in the price by the time you’re reading this. The real question isn’t “is oil going higher?” It’s “is the market underpricing or overpricing how long this tension lasts?”

Here’s how I actually worked through that question this week…

Rule 1: Check where the money left, not just where it went. XLY fell 1.0%, XLP fell 0.6%. Staples getting sold tells you it’s not a risk-off panic. This is a rotation, capital moving from consumer-facing sectors into energy specifically. That distinction matters. Panic sells staples last. This didn’t.

Rule 2: Compare the move size to the catalyst size. A 4.0% XLE move on six-week oil highs is a real move, not noise. But six-week highs aren’t a historic shock; it’s really just a moderate spike. When the sector move outpaces the catalyst, the market is pricing in follow-through, not just reacting to the headline. That’s the second-level read: the tape isn’t pricing “oil spiked,” it’s pricing “oil is going to stay elevated.”

Rule 3: Try to run a historical parallel before you chase. Go back to any prior Middle East flare-up cycle. The first move is real, but days 5 through 10 are usually where the trade confirms or fails. If the geopolitical premium holds and oil doesn’t fade back toward pre-spike levels in that window, the rotation is structural. If oil round-trips, XLE gives back the 4.0% fast and the rotation was just a headline trade.

Rule 4: As with all trades, know your invalidation before you’re in it. This framework breaks if oil reverses hard and XLE gives back that 4.0% gain within the next week. That would tell you the market mispriced duration, not direction, and the “rotation” was actually a spike trade acting as a thesis.

The crowd’s read is that geopolitics equals energy strength, simple as that. The second-level read: watch whether the rotation holds after the headline fades. That’s the actual signal, and it’s the difference between a trader reacting to news and a trader reading what the market already did with that news. Don’t be the first-level guy; the second level pays way better.

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💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups

(UnitedHealth)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $394–$396

Stop Loss: Close below $378

Target 1: $430

Target 2: $468

Risk/Reward: ~2.2:1 to T1

The market is finally waking up to the fact that UnitedHealth’s EPS beat of 29.8% wasn’t a fluke but the start of a managed-care reset. With 85% of the sell-side now bullish and three recent price-target raises, the regulatory overhang is clearing fast while valuation waits to catch up. We’re looking to buy the dip in the $394–$396 zone, targeting a mean-reversion move toward $430 and potentially $468. The stop is hard at $378; if it breaks that level, the thesis is wrong, and we cut it without hesitation.

(NVIDIA)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $222–$225

Stop Loss: Close below $207

Target 1: $254

Target 2: $285

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

The sell-side is practically drooling over NVDA, with 95% bullish sentiment and a cluster of twelve recent price-target raises, yet the tape is offering rare gifts for those willing to buy the dip. We’re looking to accumulate in the $222–$225 zone, capitalizing on the disconnect between the solid 6.2% EPS beat and current price action. A break below $207 invalidates the thesis; otherwise, we ride momentum toward $254 on the first scale-out and hold the runner to $285 as the AI capex supercycle continues to fuel accelerator leadership.

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You’ve seen the free side. Here’s what you’re missing.

The free ideas this week are real trades with defined risk, but they play the broader tape. The paid board sharpens the edge: tighter invalidation, cleaner catalyst paths, and vehicles built for this week’s specific microstructure rather than the most-mentioned name. One clean trade off the paid board covers the subscription. That’s our whole pitch.

Upgrade, get the full board with exact entries, stops, and target clusters, and let the tape do the work.

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👋 Welcome Back, Traders

Two things stood out this week. Oil is fading back toward $83 after last week’s break above $87, and the money that chased Materials and Staples is now sprinting into Tech and Financials instead. That’s a pretty clear sign the rotation is flipping directions in real time, and it tells you the crowd that was late to the energy trade may already be exiting.

Last week’s board has held up. and did their job, and the paid setups kept the win streak intact. We’ll walk through exactly where those stand below, stops and all. No hiding from what worked and what didn’t.

Here’s the tape as it sits right now: ES is holding near 7750, NQ is grinding at 29650+, and VIX around 14 is telling you complacency is back in style. WTI slipping to $83 after the spike is the real tell. Six months into this Middle East conflict, and the market seems to be shrugging off the geopolitical premium faster than it priced it in. That’s a second-level read most retail traders are missing!

Kansas City Fed’s Schmid calling inflation “sticky” while saying policy isn’t restrictive is a direct contradiction to what the rate-cut crowd wants to hear. That creates real friction that is worth trading around.

The key thing to watch this upcoming week: weekly Initial Jobless Claims. With and absorbing the rotation flow. A soft claims print could accelerate the move fast; don’t blink during this one.

📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

Our Previous Edition: August 20, 2026 | Oil Breaks $87, Rotation Deepens | EOG, RTX & 3 Paid Setups Inside

Has come down right into the $211-$215 entry zone. There is no cost to waiting here and keeping the stops in place. Boeing appears to be trying to create a base to push back up over $220; with so many key support levels near these prices, the risk-to-reward is in our favor. T1: $236 | T2: $250

Is working and in profit around $332, pushing toward T1 ($362). You had to be patient and wait for entry on Tuesday or Wednesday of this week, but now, as Snowflake pushes back toward new highs, you can just leave the stop where it is; this one’s doing exactly what it was built to do. T1: $362 | T2: $410

Also took until Tuesday or Wednesday to reach its entry zone of $148-$150. Now it is sitting slightly down around $144. Hold with the original stop in place at 133.25. T1: $180 | T2: $200

Took patience to reach our entries in the $1,230-$1,245 zone; now Eli Lilly is sitting around $1,185. It is creating exactly what we wanted to see with a higher low forming on the daily chart. We want to watch for LLY to stay above $1,160 and push back up towards our first target. Holding and moving the stop up to $1,140. T1: $1,470 | T2: $1,550

Came down perfectly, dropping just below our entry zone before pushing higher yesterday and today. RTX is currently sitting in the entry zone around $212, watching for confirmation toward T1 ($230). Still live if you haven’t taken it T1: $230 | T2: $245

Scoreboard: 1 already paying, 4 still waiting on their moves, 0 stopped out. That is still a winning week with no clear losers and one cleanly paying. It is early, but the process is doing exactly what it’s supposed to.

As we advance, hold the winners to their stated exits above, don’t manage a working trade out of boredom, and treat every stop as the system doing its job, not a reason to skip the next clean setup. Every setup from last issue is now accounted for!

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📚 Weekly Insight: Family Office Bullishness and Tech Rotation

Here’s a split-screen view that should bother you. Family offices, AKA the smart, patient money that doesn’t trade for headlines, are making a real bullish bet on stocks right now 👀. XLK is up 2.2% this week. XLF is up 1.0%. That shows that capital is moving into growth AND financials at the same time. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed’s Schmid is out there calling inflation “stubborn” and “sticky.” Those two facts don’t really agree with each other on the surface. That’s exactly why in moments like these you need to stop and think instead of just following the flow.

Charlie Munger’s approach here would be simple: invert the problem. Instead of asking “why should I buy this rally,” ask “what would have to be true for this rally to be a mistake.” If you can’t answer that clearly, you don’t have a thesis; you have a hope.

The obvious interpretation: Family offices are smart money; smart money is buying, so you buy too. Simple momentum chase. That’s what most retail does when they see “institutional inflows” in a headline.

The second-level interpretation: Family offices aren’t reacting to Schmid’s inflation comments; they’re positioning ahead of a Fed that eventually has to cut regardless of how “sticky” inflation sounds this week. XLF strength isn’t a bet on stable rates; it’s a bet on eventual cuts steepening the curve and reviving bank margins. XLK strength isn’t ignoring inflation; it’s betting that mega-cap tech balance sheets can absorb higher-for-longer rates better than anything else in the index. That’s a very different trade than “buy because line go up.”

A Historical parallel I can recall that is similar to this is late 2023; it looked almost identical. The Fed was jawboning about inflation not being fully tamed while institutional flows quietly rotated into rate-sensitive sectors months before the actual pivot got confirmed. The people who waited for the Fed to say “we’re done” bought the top of that move. The people who read the flow data got the better entries…

Here’s how I’d trade utilizing this framework this week:

Rule 1: Don’t fight the flow data with a Fed quote. XLK +2.2% and XLF +1.0% is the real positioning; Schmid’s “sticky” comment is just commentary. Weight actual capital movement over verbal hedging from a regional Fed president.

Rule 2: Confirm the thesis with price, not narrative. If XLK and XLF keep grinding higher into next week while inflation talk stays hawkish, that divergence is the tell that institutions may know something the tape hasn’t priced.

Rule 3: Define your invalidation now, not after you’re wrong. If XLF rolls back over below this week’s low while credit spreads widen, the “cuts are coming” bet is broken, and you need to exit, not average down.

Rule 4: Size for the disagreement. When smart money and Fed rhetoric disagree, that’s not a green light for max size; it’s a signal to size moderately and let price confirm before you press harder.

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New resources and weekly bonuses → HERE

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💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups

(ServiceNow)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $132-$134

Stop Loss: Close below $117

Target 1: $162

Target 2: $192

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

ServiceNow is pricing in a dominant AI narrative with a +5.1% EPS beat and a 92% bullish sell-side consensus, yet the lack of new upgrades suggests the crowd is already fully loaded. We want to fade that overcrowding by entering the $132 to $134 zone, where institutional support meets technical resistance. The stop sits tight at $117 to protect against a failed breakout, leaving a wide-open path to $162 on the first target and $192 if momentum holds.

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(Freeport-McMoRan)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $77-$78

Stop Loss: Close below $65

Target 1: $99

Target 2: $123

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

Freeport-McMoRan ($FCX) is setting up as a pure cyclical growth expression, with EPS beating estimates by 18.5% and 83% of sell-side analysts firmly in the green. The tape is pricing in a strong second-order move, so I’m looking to accumulate shares in the $77 to $78 zone where the risk/reward is heavily skewed in our favor. I’m keeping a tight stop at $65 to protect capital if the copper thesis fractures, while targeting the $99 level for the first take-profit. The second target sits at $123 if momentum carries through, but we’ll let the tape dictate the pace rather than forcing the issue.

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You’ve Seen the Free Side. Here’s What You’re Missing…

The free ideas this week, NOW and FCX, are real trades that I will take with defined risk. But they play the broader tape.

The paid board sharpens the edge: tighter invalidation, cleaner catalyst paths, and vehicles built for this week’s specific microstructure rather than the most-mentioned name. This week, that’s a name riding the AI-switch upgrade cycle, another on the M&A reactivation setup, and a small-cap play on a uranium breakout with an earnings catalyst within 30 days. Three names most retail screens won’t surface. One clean trade off the paid board covers the subscription. That is the whole pitch here.

Upgrade, get the full board with exact entries, stops, and target clusters, and let the tape do the work.

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👋 Welcome Back, Traders

Oil is above $87, volatility is below 16, and the indexes are continuing the work to prove that this rotation has real depth. That tension is the opportunity this week. The goal of this edition is the same as every other: separate real trade setups from the stocks that are overhyped.

As always, the scoreboard from last week is the proof. Last week’s board August 13, 2026 | Oil Holds $82, Rotation Tightens. We will account for every setup below, then build the new board from what’s changed, not just based on what worked a week ago.

ES is near 7,700, with 7,675 as the line that keeps the constructive case intact. NQ is near 29,350, with 29,250 doing the same job for growth. VIX near 15.50 says entries need a little more room, or a smaller size than they did in last week’s slightly calmer tape. The same theme has stayed present over the past month or two, with above-$70 energy-linked cash flows are continuing to receive attention.

Underneath the indexes, capital is continuing its flow into Healthcare, and Energy. It is leaving Real Estate and Consumer Staples. Every stock in a leading sector isn’t automatically a buy, and every real estate stock isn’t a sell. This information is meant to shape your evaluation and raise the burden of proof required for a trade. Plays outside of leadership need a company-specific catalyst, clean structure, or something to keep the payoff asymmetric.

Above ES 7,675 and NQ 29,250, let the strongest setups come into their zones. A close below either line means cut the index-sensitive size first. If oil strength and sector flows persist while the indexes hesitate, favor the vehicles whose earnings and balance-sheet catalysts can stand on their own. This edition shines some light on which names cleared those tests.

📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

— Slightly below the entry zone of $357.00-$360.00, but still in play around $354. Now, patience is the trade. If the price hits the stop at $343, we will close this out for a small loss. Ideally, JPM finds a new base above $350 before pushing to a new high and towards our targets! T1: $385.00 | T2: $410.00

— Slightly below the entry zone as well @ $71.78, entry zone $72.00-$73.00. Holding with discipline and the set stop at $68.50. Same story as JPM, it took until today to get the planned entry. Now we watch for a new base above $69 to push back toward the highs and our T1 at $80.

— Working and in profit @ $364+, pushing toward T1 ($400.00). Entry was hard to get after last week’s edition was posted, however, since then the structure has held and pushed higher. Leave the stop where it is. No need to manage a trade that’s doing exactly what it was built to do. (Stop: $292.00 | T1: $400.00 | T2: $440.00)

— Working beautifully and in profit @ $958+, pushing toward T1 ($1,210.00). Leave the stop where it is; this setup is playing and paying exactly as intended. Stop: $745.00 | T1: $1,210.00 | T2: $1,300.00

— Working and in profit @ $174+. Entry took until Tuesday the 18th, but since then, PLTR has seemed to find a new base to continue pushing toward T1 ($200.00). Now we watch for the structure to hold and leave the stop where it is at $130. This trade is doing exactly what it was built to do.

Scoreboard: 3 already paying, 2 slightly below entry, 0 stopped out. That’s 3 for 5 live right now, with zero stops triggered. We’re not going to pretend that happens every week, but it’s what the process is built to produce when the entries are clean and the levels hold!

What this means going forward: hold the winners to their stated exits above, don’t manage a working trade out of boredom, and treat every stop as the system doing its job, not a reason to skip the next clean setup. Every setup from the last issue is accounted for.

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📚 Weekly Insight: What the Crowd Gets Backwards

Consensus feels safe right up until it’s expensive. With Healthcare the obvious trade this week (+4.1%) and Real Estate left for dead (-0.2%), it’s worth asking what the crowd is getting backwards, because the crowd is rarely early and rarely cheap. If they were, everyone would make money trading.

The crowd believes strength should be chased. Reality: strength that’s already been discovered has already paid its early buyers. Healthcare’s move is real, but the risk/reward of chasing it above a clean entry zone is worse than it was three days ago, even though the story is more convincing now. Conviction goes up as the advantage goes down; that’s how crowds work.

The crowd believes weakness means broken. Reality: Real Estate being unloved is a fact about positioning, not necessarily a fact about the business or the catalyst path. Some laggards are laggards because the thesis is actually broken. Some are laggards because everyone has already sold, and there’s no one left to sell to. Telling the two apart is the entire job of an educated trader. The tape (not the sentiment) is what tells you which one you’re looking at.

The crowd often believes a high VIX means “stay out.” The reality is with VIX above 15: elevated volatility widens entry zones and stops, which is exactly when a good process has more room to work and a sloppy one gets punished faster. High VIX doesn’t automatically mean don’t trade.

The crowd believes the headline is the trade. WTI above $87 or ES near 7,696 are inputs, not conclusions. Warren Buffett’s discipline was to separate a durable business advantage from a temporarily popular stock, precisely because the headline is what everyone already has priced in by the time it’s a headline.

None of this means “do the opposite of the crowd.” That’s just consensus thinking with a costume on. It means treating the crowd’s confidence as information about price, not information about the future. When everyone agrees, ask what they’d have to be wrong about, and check whether the tape is already hinting at it!

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💳 Robinhood Gold — Earn 4–4.5% APY on idle cash

📊 TrendSpider — Advanced watchlists, indicators, and market insights

🎥 Market Insights & Trading Trends YouTube — Breakdowns + Live trading

🎁 New resources and weekly bonuses → HERE

📓 On Etsy: 2026 Trading Journal Spreadsheet

💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups

(Boeing)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $211-$215

Stop Loss: Close Below $200

Target 1: $236

Target 2: $250

Risk/Reward: ~1.7:1 to T1

The Boeing trade idea pulls from the weekly insight, as it has been getting hammered for over 2 weeks of trading. After setting a new high on the daily chart above $240, it has drastically pulled back. The risk is in our favor at these levels BA has bounced from multiple times historically and leads with the catalyst of an earnings turnaround plus defense/industrial rerating. Had an EPS miss -141.5% with analysts 82% bullish; 3 PT raises and 2 upgrades in the last 45 days. Entry below 215 is key to keeping the R:R in your favor.

(Snowflake)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $311-$315

Stop Loss: Close Below $286

Target 1: $362

Target 2: $410

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

This is an expectations trade in Snowflake: AI-driven product cycles and platform consolidation are expanding the addressable market and pricing power, and the current setup gives Snowflake a defined-risk entry into that move. The stop at $286 marks where the evidence changed, not where patience ran out. Target 1 at $362 pays for being right; $410 captures a genuine repricing. Additional evidence behind the setup: EPS beat +21.9%; analysts 86% bullish; 12 PT raises in the last 45 days, with the avg PT raise being +18%. Lastly, SNOW has an earnings catalyst in 13 days.

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You’ve Seen the Free Side. Here’s What You’re Missing…

The free ideas this week, and , play the typical broader tape we target with the free trade insights.

The paid board sharpens the edge: tighter invalidation, cleaner catalyst paths, and vehicles built for this week’s specific microstructure. One clean trade from the paid board covers the subscription. The math is built to be simple.

Get A Free Trial Today — Cancel anytime

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👋 Welcome Back, Traders

Welcome back to another MITT edition! Last week, the board was built around the deepening rotation as Healthcare led the charge. The thesis has mostly held as energy and healthcare still lead, and the tape has clarified the immediate path forward

Oil is above $82, volatility is below 15, and the indexes are being forced downward. That tension is where we look for the opportunity this week. The goal of this edition is to show trades with favorable risk-to-reward from charts that just appear cheaper after the pullback. Before we get into the trade ideas, the scoreboard matters the most. We will account for every setup below, then build the new board from what changed, not just based on what worked a week ago.

ES is near 7,800, with 7,750 as the line that keeps the constructive case intact. NQ is near 30,150, with 29,550 doing the same job for growth. VIX near 14.6 says entries deserve more room and a smaller size than they did in last week’s calmer tape. Underneath the indexes, capital is moving into Energy , Healthcare . It is leaving Industrials , Materials . These rotations help set the burden of proof. A long outside leadership needs a company-specific catalyst, a clean structure, and an invalidation level close enough to keep the payoff asymmetric.

Here is the decision tree based on the current market structure: Above ES 7,750 and NQ 29,550, let the strongest setups come into their zones. A close below either line means cut index-sensitive size first. If oil strength and sector flows persist while the indexes hesitate, favor the vehicles whose earnings and balance-sheet catalysts can stand on their own. This edition shows exactly which names go where.

📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

Here’s how last week’s setups from August 6, 2026 | Healthcare Leads, Rotation Deepens performed based on the current prices.

- Not triggered, but if you took a higher entry, it would be working and in profit @ $812+, pushing toward T1 ($969.52). Entry around $752.17-$758.73 never happened, giving ~$763.50 as the best entry. If you are in and profiting, congrats, not counting this as a win or a loss.

- Working and in profit @ $601+, pushing toward T1 ($695.80). The best entry seen was in the $569 range. Hesitant to call this one a win as well since TMO did not fully tag the ideal zone, so it is tracked as working but not counted as an official trigger. But from the day the last edition was published until today, Thermo Fisher has seen nothing but green candles. Holding our position with stops in place now at a close below $540. T1 at $695.80, and T2 at $835.24

- The subscribers always get the best setups, and that is true here with Arista Networks, as it is a clear winner and is paying. Currently above $208, and pushing toward T1 ($252.12). Entry was clean within the $189.01-$192 range, and the stop was never even tested. We are holding with the stop in place at $156.53; don’t be afraid to take profits as you see fit on the way up.

- Sitting in the entry zone around $266, we are watching for a hold above $265 and confirmation toward T1 at $340.15. Moving our stop up to a close below $235 to protect capital. The setup is still favorable; some consolidation after the gap up on July 31st is expected.

- Working perfectly and in profit @ $221+ , pushing toward T1 at $258.61. Entry in the $217.14-$218.94 zone was easy as Capital One came all the way down to ~$216.50. COF stayed well above the stop at $195.50 before beginning the next push higher, peaking at 225 so far. We are holding with original stops in place.

Net result: 3 working or already paying, 1 still waiting in the entry zone, and 1 not triggered, with 0 stopped out. ANOTHER clean sweep so far with zero losses on the board. Every setup accounted for!

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📚 Weekly Insight: Second-Level Thinking in a Rotating Tape

The obvious read this week is: oil near $82, Energy leading, and VIX near 15 means buy the strongest sector and avoid everything else. That’s first-level thinking. In the markets, it describes what has already happened. It does not tell us what is priced in, where the risk sits, or which vehicle still offers an asymmetric entry.

A key principle from Jesse Livermore to use here is to let price confirm the thesis instead of anticipating every turn. That’s a paraphrase, not a quote. The practical question is: what does the market already expect, and what evidence could still force expectations to change?

1. Separate the driver from the headline. WTI near $82 is a driver because it changes cash-flow expectations for producers and refiners. A headline that merely mentions energy is not enough. The same test applies to earnings. A beat matters when guidance, margins, or analyst revisions change the forward path. Before sizing any trade, write one sentence explaining which number can improve over the next ~30 days.

2. Compare leadership with the price you must pay. Energy is up +6.0% on the weekly flow snapshot, while Industrials is around -0.1%. That spread tells us where sponsorship exists. It does not authorize a chase. If a leader opens beyond the planned entry zone, the expected reward shrinks while the stop remains real. Strong theme plus poor entry still equals poor trade.

3. Demand confirmation from the broader tape. ES near 7,815 and NQ near 30,217 are not background decoration. They tell us whether single-name strength is occurring with or against index structure. A technology setup deserves less size if NQ loses its bull-bear line. An energy setup can retain relative strength during index weakness, but it still must hold its own close-based invalidation.

4. Make the disconfirming evidence visible. Second-level thinking is useless if it becomes a story that explains every outcome. The framework is wrong when leadership flows reverse, the catalyst fails to improve forward expectations, or price closes below the structure that justified entry. Those conditions are observable. They keep conviction from turning into attachment.

A useful historical parallel is 2022, when energy leadership could remain strong even while broad growth indexes struggled. The lesson was not to buy every oil name. The lesson was that index direction and sector leadership can diverge for months. What is different now is the starting point, current valuations, and this earnings calendar. We use the parallel to ask better questions, not to predict an identical replay.

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💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups

(JPMorgan Chase)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $357-$360

Stop Loss: Close below $343

Target 1: $385

Target 2: $410

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

JPMorgan Chase leads with a catalyst of financial leadership with rates contained. Above our entry range, the asymmetry deteriorates. A close below $343.09 rejects the setup. Take profits at $380+, then leave a smaller piece for extended targets. JP Morgan EPS beat +5.9% with 15 PT raises over the last 45 days.

(Williams Companies)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $72-$73

Stop Loss: Close below $68.50

Target 1: $80

Target 2: $88

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

The reason we are willing to accept the risk on WMB is that the crude and gas price action, plus disciplined capex, are supporting free cash flow and shareholder returns. The current setup gives Williams a defined-risk entry into that move. Patience inside $72 to $73 is part of the edge we are looking to capitalize on. Williams Companies has a narrow EPS beat; the analysts are 86% bullish with 6 PT raises over the last 45 days.

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You’ve Seen the Free Side. Here’s What You’re Missing…

The free ideas this week, and , are good trades with the typical defined risk-to-reward edge we look for. But they play the broader tape and are lower conviction than the best plays we save for our paid subscribers.

The paid board is designed to give subscribers more defined setups, clearer invalidations, and deeper weekly market context. One clean trade from the board could cover the subscription for a year. The math is simple.

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Welcome Back, Traders

Oil is holding above $75, volatility is sitting near 16, and the indexes are being forced to prove this rotation has real structural depth — not just positioning noise after a crowded tech unwind. That tension is the opportunity this week. The goal of this edition, same as always, is to separate trades with fresh institutional sponsorship from charts that merely look cheaper after a pullback.

First, the scoreboard. Last week’s board did its job: define the trade, define the risk, then let the tape prove or reject it. We will account for every setup below, then build the new board from what changed, not from what worked a week ago.

Here’s the current macro snapshot: ES is near 7,760 with 7,550.0 as the close-based line that keeps the constructive case intact. NQ is near 29,537 with 28,300.0 doing the same job for growth. VIX near 15.8 tells you entries deserve a little more room and slightly smaller size than they did in a calmer tape. WTI near $75.2 explains why energy-linked cash flows are still getting attention, even as oil has pulled back from the highs seen in prior weeks.

Underneath the indexes, capital is rotating with purpose. Healthcare (XLV, +1.3% on the week) and Materials (XLB, +1.2%) are absorbing fresh flows. Industrials (XLI, -0.0%), Consumer Staples (XLP, -0.1%), and Technology (XLK, -0.5%) are losing sponsorship. That does not make every Healthcare or Materials name a buy, and it does not make every tech chart a short. What it does is raise the burden of proof. A long outside this week’s leadership needs a company-specific catalyst, clean structure, and a stop close enough to keep the payoff asymmetric.

The decision tree for this week: Above ES 7,550.0 and NQ 28,300.0, let the strongest setups come into their zones and work. A daily close below either line changes the playbook; cut index-sensitive size first, ask questions second. If oil strength and sector flows persist while the indexes hesitate, favor names where earnings catalysts, pipeline updates, and balance-sheet clarity can carry the trade without perfect macro. This edition shows exactly which five setups cleared that test.

Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

Here’s how last week’s board is tracking at current prices. This is the accountability section. No disappeared trades, no pretending every idea ran straight to target.

$BA (Boeing) — LONG ✅ Working, in profit @ $240.19, pushing toward T1 ($246.00). Entry: $215.00–$218.00 | Stop: Close below $198.40 | T1: $246.00 | T2: $278.75. The industrial recovery thesis is playing out cleanly. Boeing’s delivery normalization and record backlog are doing the heavy lifting. Manage stops and consider taking partials near T1.

$FCX (Freeport-McMoRan) — LONG ✅ Working, in profit @ $69.39, pushing toward T1 ($72.00). Entry: $60.00–$62.00 | Stop: Close below $55.00 | T1: $72.00 | T2: $84.00. Copper held its demand thesis — Materials rotated in exactly as the setup required. If you’re holding, consider tightening your stop to protect gains as the stock approaches T1.

$EOG (EOG Resources) — LONG ⏳ Not yet triggered @ $134.23. Entry zone $140.00–$142.00 remains in play as oil stabilizes. Stop: Close below $133.00 | T1: $155.00 | T2: $172.00. No action needed — the zone hasn’t been reached. Patience beats chasing.

$RTX (RTX Corp) — LONG ✅ Working, in profit @ $222.31, pushing toward T1 ($240.84). Entry: $207.04–$208.81 | Stop: Close below $189.64 | T1: $240.84 | T2: $276.07. Defense continues to earn its place — backlog clarity and margin visibility are doing what they’re supposed to do when the broader tape is uncertain. Consider moving your stop up to protect the gain.

$LLY (Eli Lilly) — LONG ✅ Working, in profit @ $1,169.86, pushing toward T1 ($1,273.62). Entry: $1,133.70–$1,144.00 | Stop: Close below $1,064.12 | T1: $1,273.62 | T2: $1,416.03. The GLP-1 divergence trade is working — Healthcare losing sector sponsorship while LLY holds its premium multiple is exactly the signal we flagged. Don’t fight a winner; let it breathe toward T1.

Net result: 4 working or already paying, 1 not yet triggered, 0 stopped out, a clean sweep, zero losses on the board. Every setup accounted for. That is the edge: a plan before emotion gets loud.

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High-Conviction Trade Setups

(Regeneron Pharmaceuticals)

Entry Zone: $752.17–$758.73 | Stop Loss: Close below $636.52 | Target 1: $969.52 | Target 2: $1,201.39 | Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

Regeneron leads the free board with a catalyst stack that’s hard to argue with: pipeline readthrough plus Eylea franchise stabilization at a time when the market is actively rotating capital into Healthcare. The setup earns entry only inside $752.17–$758.73 — above that range, the asymmetry deteriorates because you’re chasing price rather than buying structure. A close below $636.52 rejects the thesis cleanly; that level is where the invalidation lives, not a soft stop based on comfort. The plan: take the majority of the position off at $969.52, then leave a smaller runner for $1,201.39 if the pipeline narrative continues to compound.

What changed for $REGN: EPS beat +40.0%; 8 price-target raises / 1 upgrade in the last 45 days. That analyst revision acceleration is the institutional fingerprint — when PT raises outnumber downgrades 8-to-1, it signals the consensus is still catching up to the fundamental reality, not ahead of it. That gap between where estimates sit and where results are landing is the asymmetry this trade is built on. Don’t enter above the zone and don’t hold through a close under $636.52.

(Thermo Fisher Scientific)

Entry Zone: $563.17–$569.04 | Stop Loss: Close below $494.05 | Target 1: $695.80 | Target 2: $835.24 | Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

Start with the risk on Thermo Fisher. The close-based line at $494.05 defines the loss before the position is opened — not after it’s uncomfortable. The reason to accept that risk is specific: post-patent-cliff stabilization combined with life-science tool restocking cycles and margin recovery are creating a re-rating opportunity the market hasn’t fully priced. The current entry zone gives you a defined-risk way into that move without chasing the first leg of the recovery. $695.80 is the first decision point; $835.24 is the extension if the re-rating continues to accelerate.

Patience inside $563.17–$569.04 is a genuine edge here, not a platitude. What changed for $TMO: EPS beat +5.6%; analyst consensus 79% bullish; 4 price-target raises / 0 downgrades in the last 45 days; average PT raise +9%. The analyst community is moving in one direction on this name. The question is whether you enter in the zone where the risk is still worth the reward, or above it where you’re buying someone else’s well-priced trade.

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You’ve Seen the Free Side. Here’s What You’re Missing…

The free ideas this week are real trades with defined risk. They’re built on genuine catalysts inside the sector that’s actually receiving capital right now. But they play the broader Healthcare rotation.

The paid board goes one step further. It zeroes in on names where the catalyst path, the microstructure, and the sector alignment converge with more precision: tighter invalidation levels, cleaner entries off this week’s specific tape, and vehicles positioned for the next move, not the one that already happened. One clean trade from the paid board covers the subscription. That’s not a slogan. It’s the math.

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👋 Welcome Back, Traders

Oil is above $84, volatility is back near 18, and the indexes are being forced to prove that the rotation still has real depth. That tension creates the opportunity this week. The goal of this edition is to separate trades with fresh sponsorship from charts that merely look cheaper after a pullback.

Last week’s board, July 23, 2026 | Oil Above $90 Ignites Energy, PLTR & UNH Lead Free Board + 3 Paid Trade Ideas & ES/NQ Levels, did its job, and this market just handed us proof of concept. Last week’s board, UNH, PLTR, MPC, SNOW, and GS, are showing 2 clear winners in profit and only 1 sitting slightly below entry, with zero stops hit. That’s not luck. That’s what happens when you enter with defined risk and let structure do the work while the tape sorts itself out.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY, +2.3%) and Consumer Staples (XLP, +1.2%) are pulling in fresh capital, Materials (XLB, +0.6%) is following, while Technology (XLK, -0.1%), Healthcare (XLV, -0.3%), and Real Estate (XLRE, -1.6%) are being left behind. That’s the story of this edition: which names are getting paid for real catalysts, and which are just riding index beta.

ES is near 7,450 with 7,325 as the bull/bear line that keeps the constructive case alive. NQ is near 28,190 with 27,200 doing the same job for growth. Neither index has broken down, and neither is running away, which means next week is about discipline, not chasing. VIX near 18 means you must give your entries more room and trade smaller than you did during last week’s calmer tape. The rotation raises the burden of proof for every setup in this edition. A long outside this week's leading sectors needs a real catalyst, clean structure, and a stop close enough to keep the reward asymmetric, not just a cheaper-looking chart. Boeing, Freeport-McMoRan, and our 3 paid setups all cleared that bar.

Let’s account for every setup below, then build the new board from what changed, not from what worked a week ago. Here’s exactly where the risk/reward sits for July 30–Aug 5.

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📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

Here’s how the July 23, 2026 | Oil Above $90 Ignites Energy board is tracking against current prices.

— Working and in profit @ $424+, pushing toward T1 ($462.00). Entry: $420.00–$415.50 | Stop: $395.00 | T1: $462.00 | T2: $500.00. Entry was easy to get as UNH trended down since the last edition was posted. It trickled down to the $411 range and is now looking to set up a new base to push higher. We are holding with original stops in place.

— Working and in our entry range around $121, pushing toward T1 ($146.00). Stop is in place at $105.50, and we are holding as Palantir looks to set up a higher low on the daily chart and shift from a downtrend to an uptrend.

— Also sitting in our entry range, as most of this week has just been consolidation until today. Today we got a lot of buy volume pouring in, this is still a great setup that we will keep open with original stops in place as we watch for it to push toward T1 ($355.00). Stop is $266.00, T1: $355.00, and T2: $400.00.

— Working beautifully and in profit @ $290+, pushing toward T1 ($310.00). The entries were easy as Snowflake went under $264 multiple times. Depending on your entry, you may consider moving your stops up to protect profits. We are holding the full original position with original stops until the $300 level.

- Sitting down slightly but still above our stop at $980, our entry zone was $1,058.00-$1,047.00; the trade is still in play and setting up nicely. If you missed the early entry, these prices give even better risk-to-reward! (T1: $1,199.00 | T2: $1,354.00)

That is 2 in profit, 2 in the entry range, and 1 slightly down. Overall, a winning week so far and still 0 stops hit! That plus the clean sweeps from the previous weeks confirms the framework: defined risk, close-based stops, and targets tied to structural levels keep working across both free and paid ideas. That discipline carries directly into this week’s board!

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💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups

(Boeing)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $215-$218

Stop Loss: Close below $198.40

Target 1: $246

Target 2: $278.75

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

Boeing leads the free board with a clean industrial-recovery story: production rates are normalizing, and the balance sheet is healing faster than consensus expected. Entry inside $214.95 to $217.01 keeps the risk defined against a close below $198.40, while $246.20 offers the first decision point and $278.75 preserves the larger payoff. This is the kind of setup that looks to play into the broader tape rather than against it. Additionally, delivery rates are accelerating, their backlog is at record highs, and they’ve had 6 PT raises in the past 45 days.

(Freeport-McMoRan)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $60-$62

Stop Loss: Close below $55

Target 1: $72

Target 2: $84

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

Copper has quietly become the referee for this rotation. As money leans into Discretionary, Staples, and Materials while Technology and Real Estate lose sponsorship, the tape is asking whether cyclical growth has real follow-through or is just a positioning reset. Freeport sits right at that intersection. A bid that holds above the $60–$61.80 zone says investors are willing to pay today’s copper price for tomorrow’s demand; a close under $55.05 says this was another false start. Structurally, FCX is coiled just under a broader breakout area, with the daily trend trying to flip from sideways to constructive. If the sector rotation into Materials persists over the next week and ES can hold above 7,325, the path toward $72 becomes the default outcome rather than the optimistic one. Size appropriately; this is a pure expression of whether the market believes the global growth story. FCX EPS beat +18.5%; analysts are 83% bullish with 9 PT raises in the last 45 days.

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You’ve Seen the Free Side, Here’s What You’re Missing…

BA and FCX give you clean participation in the rotation that’s actually happening with money leaving crowded Tech and rate‑sensitive Real Estate and leaning into Industrials and Materials. But the paid board goes one step further. It focuses on names where this week’s earnings, backlog updates, and pipeline catalysts can drive price even if the indexes spend the next few days chopping around their bull/bear lines. If ES holds above 7,325 and NQ above 27,200, these bonus plays give you defined‑risk ways to express the next leg higher. If we lose those levels, they become a filtered list of where to cut risk first and where to preserve exposure. One good trade from the paid board can pay for the subscription.

Upgrade, get the full board with exact entries, stops, and target clusters, and let the tape do the work!

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👋 Welcome Back, Traders

Oil is above $90, volatility is back near 19, and the indexes are being forced to prove that this rotation has some real depth. That tension creates the opportunity this week. The goal of this edition is to separate trades with fresh sponsorship from charts that merely look cheaper after a pullback.

First things first, the scoreboard. Last week’s board, July 16, 2026 | Post-Bank Earnings: we will account for every setup below, then build the new board from what changed, not just what worked a week ago.

ES is near 7,454 with 7450 as the line that keeps the constructive case intact. NQ is near 28,700 with 28650 doing the same job for growth. VIX near 19 tells us that entries deserve more room and smaller size than they did in last week’s calmer tape. WTI near $91 explains why energy-linked cash flows are receiving more attention.

Underneath the indexes, capital is moving into Energy ($XLE), and Technology ($XLK). And is leaving Materials ($XLB), Healthcare ($XLV,). This does NOT mean every leader is a buy, or that every laggard is a short. What it does do is raise the burden of proof. A long outside leadership needs a company-specific catalyst, clean structure, and an invalidation level close enough to keep the payoff asymmetric!

The key decision tree: above ES 7450.0 and NQ 28650.0, let the strongest setups come into their zones. A close below either line means cut index-sensitive size first. If oil strength and sector flows persist while the indexes hesitate, favor the vehicles whose earnings and balance-sheet catalysts can stand on their own. This edition shows exactly which names clear that test.

📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

Here’s how the July 16, 2026 | Post-Bank Earnings Board: ANET, JPM + 3 Paid Setups, ES/NQ Levels board is performing at current prices.

- Working, winning, and in profit @ $177+ hitting a high of $179+, pushing toward T1 ($202.00). Holding full with the stop in place at $140.00!

- Working and in profit @ $347+, another early winner pushing toward T1 ($370.00). A clean break and hold over $350 should give us another leg up towards our targets. Take profits as you get them, and consider moving your stop up slightly to a close below ~$326.

-Down slightly, sitting right below our entry in the $71 range. Looking for it to find a higher support around these levels and push back up towards target 1 ($83.00). Hold with stops in place at a close below $68.50.

- Another early winner, working and in profit @ $100+, pushing toward T1 ($111.00). Entry was difficult if you missed it when the last edition released, but around $99.50 was possible earlier this week. Continue holding with stops in place at $90.50 or consider moving your stop up to ~$93.

- Sitting near the entry zone around $290, watching for confirmation toward T1 ($323.00). J.B. Hunt has pulled back exactly as we anticipated, giving us our ideal entries. Now we will wait for the confirmation of the next leg up and continue holding with our stops in place, with a close below $271.

Net result: 3 early winners already paying, 2 still waiting sitting right by our entry zone, 0 stopped out! A clean sweep so far with zero losses on board. Every setup accounted for honestly.

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📚 Weekly Insight: Second-Level Thinking in a Rotating Tape

The obvious read this week is simple: oil near $90, Energy leading, and VIX near 19 means buy the strongest sector and avoid everything else. That is first-level thinking. It describes what already happened. It does not tell us what is priced in, where the risk sits, or which vehicle still offers an asymmetric entry!

A useful principle here, inspired by Howard Marks, is to use second-level thinking to compare consensus with what is already priced in. This is a paraphrase, not a quote. The practical question is: what does the market already expect, and what evidence could still force those expectations to change?

1. Separate the driver from the headline. WTI near $90 is a driver because it changes cash-flow expectations for producers and refiners. A headline that merely mentions energy is not enough. The same test applies to earnings. A beat matters when guidance, margins, or analyst revisions change the forward path. Before sizing any trade, write one sentence explaining how and which number can improve over the next 30 days.

2. Compare leadership with the price you must pay. Energy is +4.4% on the weekly flow snapshot, while Materials is -0.3%. That spread tells us where sponsorship exists. It does not authorize a chase. If a leader opens beyond the planned entry zone, the expected reward shrinks while the stop remains real. Strong theme plus poor entry still equals poor trade.

3. Demand confirmation from the broader tape. ES near 7,454 and NQ near 28,700 tell us whether single-name strength is occurring with or against index structure. A technology setup deserves less size if NQ loses its bull-bear line. An energy setup can retain relative strength during index weakness, but it still must hold its own close-based invalidation.

4. Make the disconfirming evidence visible. Second-level thinking is useless if it becomes a story that explains every outcome. The framework is wrong when leadership flows reverse, the catalyst fails to improve forward expectations, or price closes below the structure that justified entry. Those conditions are observable. They keep conviction from turning into attachment.

A useful historical parallel we found is from 2022, when energy leadership could remain strong even while broad growth indexes struggled. The lesson was not to buy every oil name. The lesson was that index direction and sector leadership can diverge for months. What is different now is the starting point, current valuations, and this earnings calendar. We use the parallel to ask better questions, not to predict an identical replay!

Next week’s gameplan: identify the measurable driver; compare the planned entry with current price; check ES and NQ against their lines; confirm the stop sits at real structure; calculate the payoff before the order; pass if the catalyst is already fully reflected in price.

Use this simple framework to turn a crowded headline into either a defined trade or an easy no.

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💳 Robinhood Gold — Earn 4–4.5% APY on idle cash

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🎁 New resources and weekly bonuses → HERE

📓 New on Etsy: 2026 Trading Journal Spreadsheet

💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups

(UnitedHealth)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $420-$415.50

Stop Loss: Close below $395

Target 1: $462

Target 2: $500

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

UnitedHealth leads the board with a catalyst: managed care reset as regulatory overhang clears and valuation mean-reverts. The trade only earns entry looks below $420; above that range, the asymmetry deteriorates. A close below $395 rejects the setup. Take profits on the position at $462, then leave a smaller piece for $500+. Also, EPS beat +29.8%; analyst 81% bullish; 15 PT raises / 1 upgrade over the last 45 days with the avg PT raise being 15%+.

(Palantir)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $121-$118.50

Stop Loss: Close below $105.50

Target 1: $146

Target 2: $163

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

The risk on Palantir is offset by the pace of the government’s AI contract expansion plus commercial ramp. Patience on entries will be key to keeping our edge high. The close-based line at $105.50 keeps the loss defined, while $146 offers the first decision point and $163 preserves the larger payoff and gets us out at a key level that was previously rejected. Additionally, EPS beat +18.1%; 1 PT raise and 2 upgrades in the last 45 days, with an earnings catalyst in ~11d.

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You’ve Seen the Free Side, Here’s What You’re Missing…

The free ideas this week, with UNH and PLTR, are great trades with defined risk. But they play the broader tape, and aren’t the best setups we found in our research.

The paid board sharpens the edge: tighter invalidation, cleaner catalyst paths, and vehicles built for this week’s specific microstructure rather than the most-mentioned names. One clean trade from our paid board covers the subscription.

Upgrade, get the full board with exact entries, stops, and target clusters, and let the tape do the work!

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👋 Welcome Back, Traders

Last week’s board, July 9, 2026 | Energy Leads, Tech Holds, did its job: define the trade, define the risk, then let the tape prove or reject it. This week we grade that board first, then rebuild for the market we actually have after the busiest catalyst cluster of the year so far.

This week’s edition starts with ES around 7,603, NQ around 29,416, VIX near 15.85, and WTI near $80. That mix is not a panic tape and not a sleepy tape. Volatility is low enough that sloppy entries get rewarded until they don’t. Crude strength and sector rotation say capital is still moving with purpose.

The big change this week is the post-print environment. June CPI cooled to 3.5% year-over-year (softer than the ~3.8% consensus), core also eased, and the five mega-cap banks reported the same morning. Goldman’s investment-banking fees jumped hard; JPMorgan delivered a strong core print; traders cut odds of a July Fed hike sharply after the data. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh still framed the fight as unfinished, so this is not “mission accomplished,” it is “risk-on with conditions.”

Leadership underneath the index is clear: Energy (XLE ~+3.6% on the week), Financials (XLF ~+1.7%), and Real Estate (XLRE ~+1.6%) are absorbing flows. Utilities, Materials, and Industrials are giving ground. That does not mean every laggard is a short. It means every long needs a stronger reason to exist: sector sponsorship, a company-specific catalyst, or a clean enough structure for the risk to be worth taking.

The playbook stays dead simple. Define the driver, enter where risk/reward is still favorable, respect the close-based stop, take profits into Target 1, and keep a runner only if the catalyst and index backdrop keep confirming. No heroics. No chasing. Let’s get into the value!

📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

Here is how the July 9, 2026 | Energy Leads, Tech Holds board is tracking against current prices. This is the accountability section. No disappearing trades, no pretending every idea went straight to target, and no hiding the ones still waiting for confirmation.

Triggered, sitting below the original entry at $167. Entry zone $172.88–$176.17. Stop: close below $150.99. T1: $216.89 | T2: $261.68. The setup remains valid; patience for the zone beats chasing strength above it and doubling down on this with an updated trade in this edition below!

Working and slightly in profit above $193, pushing toward T1 ($213.86). Entry: $191.78–$193.19 | Stop: close below $180.61 | T1: $213.86 | T2: $236.60. Clean trigger, stop intact. Manage and take profits as they come.

Working and in profit near $139, pushing toward T1 ($145.32). Entry: $131.60–$132.62 | Stop: close below $124.77 | T1: $145.32 | T2: $159.29. Energy sponsorship is doing the heavy lifting; T1 is the first decision point.

Entry triggered, now sitting below it near $1,173. Entry zone $1,189.18–$1,201.27 still in play. Stop: close below $1,077.06 | T1: $1,407.92 | T2: $1,635.24. Structural GLP-1 thesis intact.

Entry triggered sitting below it near $216. Entry zone $219.68–$221.55 still in play. Stop: close below $207.16 | T1: $244.83 | T2: $270.44. Turnaround setup still building.

Net result: 2 working and paying (RTX, EOG), 3 still waiting (ANET, LLY, BA), 0 stopped out. Zero losses on the board again. Every setup accounted for. That is the edge: a plan before emotion gets loud!

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📚 Weekly Insight: How to Trade the Post-Print Tape (PEAD Without Getting Wrecked)

Bank week is over. Soft CPI is in the rearview. The market has already priced the first wave of “good enough” data. What separates traders who compound in the next two weeks from traders who give it back is simple: you do not trade the headline; you trade the reaction after the headline.

This is the post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD) window, and most retail traders handle it wrong in one of two ways.

Trap 1: Chase the gap.

Goldman up big on the print. A bank rips 5–9% pre-market. Buying the open feels like “being early.” It is usually buying someone else’s trade after the easy money is gone. The gap is the market pricing the beat immediately. You are left holding the bag if guidance or the sector narrative fails to follow through.

Trap 2: Fade every winner out of habit.

Not every earnings gap fails. When the beat is large, guidance holds or rises, and the sector is already in leadership (Financials this week, Energy with crude near $80), institutional money often continues to add on the first controlled pullback, not on the open. That is PEAD: the drift after a genuine surprise, not the first candle.

The edge for this week’s board:

Wait for structure after the print. Prefer a 1–5 day consolidation that does not give back more than ~25% of the post-earnings move, respects the 10/20-day averages, and contracts in volatility. That is where risk/reward turns favorable again.

Separate “beat” from “buy.” A company can beat Q2 and still sell off if Q3/Q4 guidance is soft. Always wait for the guidance read before assuming a beat is bullish; same rule we used heading into bank week. Soft CPI helped the rate side of the Financials thesis; bank guidance and capital-markets revenue help the earnings side. Both matter!

Size for the next binary, not the last one. Mega-cap tech (and TSM’s AI demand read) still sits on the calendar as the season progresses. If you are long a name with a report inside 10–15 trading days, cut size before the event. Half-size into a binary is risk management, not weak hands! You can always add after a clean hold. You cannot unwind a full-size gap disaster in the pre-market…

Use the rotation filter. Financials and Energy have sponsorship. A clean bank or energy name with defined structure is higher probability than a random tech chart just because “the index is up.” If NQ loses its bull/bear line while ES holds, tighten tech-correlated exposure immediately. This is the same rule as every MITT futures section.

Bottom line is, the next week of trading is not “everything goes up because CPI was soft.” It is a stock-picker’s tape where leadership is Energy + Financials, VIX is low enough to create false comfort, and the edge is defined entries after the market has shown its hand. Know the catalyst, know the vehicle, know the exact price that kills the thesis before you click buy.

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(Arista Networks)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $161 – $165

Stop Loss: Close below $140

Target 1: $202

Target 2: $248

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

ANET is the free-side AI infrastructure vehicle because the story is specific: hyperscalers still need networking capacity, and Arista is one of the cleanest second-order AI capex expressions without owning a crowded GPU name. EPS beat +7.7%, sell-side ~97% bullish, 4 PT raises / 0 upgrades (45d), earnings catalyst in ~19 days. AI infrastructure spending has not reversed. Until it does, ANET deserves this seat.

(JPMorgan Chase)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $339.50–$342

Stop Loss: Close below $324

Target 1: $370

Target 2: $401

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

JPM is the Financials expression after bank week: liquidity, quality, and a vehicle that sits on the right side of XLF sponsorship and the soft-CPI / contained-rates narrative. The buy zone keeps the trade disciplined. Do not pay up just because the sector is green. EPS beat +5.9%, 12 PT raises (45d). Soft CPI cut hike odds; strong bank prints validated the earnings side. JPM is how we express that without reaching for a lower-quality bank.

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You’ve Seen the Free Side. Here’s What You’re Missing.

The free board this week gives you ANET (AI networking) and JPM (Financials leadership); two real trades with defined entries, defined stops, and clear catalysts. That is the standard. Every setup on the paid board is built the same way.

The paid board is where the edge gets sharper.

One clean trade can cover the subscription. That is not a slogan. It is the math of better setups!

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👋 Welcome Back, Traders

Last week’s board, July 2, 2026 | Tech & Financials Lead the Squeeze, did what it was supposed to do: define the trade, define the risk, then let the tape prove or reject it.

This week’s edition starts with ES around 7550, NQ around 29700, VIX near 16 still, and WTI near $73. These numbers let us know this is not a panic tape or a sleepy tape. It’s a market where the index levels still matter, but the real opportunity is underneath the surface in rotation, relative strength, and names with a clear catalyst behind them.

The big change this week is leadership. Energy is catching a bid as crude stays firm. Technology still has support because AI capex has not disappeared. Financials and Healthcare are not dead, but flows are less clean than last week. That matters for every setup on the board. We don’t want five random tickers. I want five vehicles that match the tape we actually have in front of us.

The playbook stays dead simple. Define the driver, enter where risk/reward is still favorable, respect the stop, take profits into Target 1, and keep a runner only if the catalyst and index backdrop keep confirming. Let’s get into the value!

📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

Here is how the July 2, 2026 board is tracking against current prices. This is the accountability section. No disappearing trades, no pretending every idea went straight to target, and no hiding the ones still waiting for confirmation!

— Working in profit near $265. Entry was clean around $254.00, stop is in place with a close below $217.05, and Target 1 is up first at $311.33. Target 2 is $375.86. The trade is above the entry zone and still below Target 1, so the job here is to protect the process, let the move work, and avoid turning green into red.

— Sitting inside the entry zone near $126. Entry was $125.00 to $127.50, stop was a close below $106.00, Target 1 is $161.66, and Target 2 is $199.82. This is still a valid setup, not a victory lap yet. If PLTR starts building above the zone, the path toward Target 1 opens. If it loses the zone and closes weak, we do not argue with it.

— Working in profit near $430. Entry was $420.00 to $422.75, stop was a close below $397.79, Target 1 is $463.52, and Target 2 is $508.38. UNH did exactly what a clean setup should do: triggered, moved away from the entry, and kept the stop intact. Target 1 is now the first decision point.

— Working in profit near $1,014.25. Entry was $937.00 to $969.00, stop was $842.00, Target 1 is $1,255.00, and Target 2 is $1,348.47. MU is still a wider, more volatile trade, so position size matters the most here. The trade is working, but the right move is still disciplined management, not adding late just because the name is exciting. A rejection around $1,089 will mean we take profits early to manage risk.

— Working in profit near $268. Entry was $254.00, stop was a close below $212.30, Target 1 is $334.34, and Target 2 is $418.78. DDOG gave the entry, held the structure, and started moving in the right direction. That is exactly what we want to see, and now we are in profit with momentum to ideally carry us towards target 1 and 2.

Net result: four clear winners working in profit, one setup still near entry, zero stops hit, and every idea accounted for. That is the kind of week that keeps the process honest. The edge is not that every candle goes our way. The edge is that the board gives us a plan before emotion gets loud. Clean sweep once again with 0 L’s on the board!💰

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📚 Weekly Insight: How to Trade Earnings Season Without Getting Wrecked

Q2 earnings season is live. PepsiCo reports July 9. Delta Air Lines reports July 10. Then comes the week that starts the real moves: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America all report the week of July 14. Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon follow later in July. This is one of the highest-catalyst, highest-volatility three-week stretches of the year, and most traders handle it wrong.

VIX is sitting around 16, which means implied volatility is relatively cheap going into a heavy earnings calendar. When VIX is this low heading into earnings season, options premiums are compressed, and that creates specific opportunities and traps for active traders.

The trap: chasing earnings gaps. When a stock beats and gaps up 8%, buying the open feels right. It rarely is. The gap is the market pricing in the beat immediately. You are buying someone else’s trade at the worst possible entry, after the risk is gone and most of the reward is already taken.

The edge: pre-earnings setup with a defined stop. The setups on this board all have earnings catalysts inside 30 days. That is not a coincidence. A well-structured position entered before the report, with a stop below a clear technical level, gives you a defined risk entry into a potential catalyst event. You control the downside before the event. The upside takes care of itself if the thesis plays.

What to watch is in the guidance, not just results. S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 21.2% in Q2 year-over-year. That is a high bar. A beat on the number is not enough! The guidance also has to hold. If a company beats Q2 but guides Q3 lower, the stock often sells off hard even on a beat. That is where traders get caught. They see green and buy. Then guidance drops and the stock reverses. Always wait for the guidance read before assuming a beat is bullish!

The earnings season size discipline: cut position size heading into reports. If you are in a name that reports in the next 10 days, your position size should reflect that binary event risk. Half-size into earnings is not weak-hands, it is risk management. You can always add after the print if the reaction is clean and the stock holds. You cannot unwind a full-size disaster trade in a pre-market gap.

Bottom line for this week is that the board is built for earnings season. Every setup has an entry before the report, a stop to define the risk, and a catalyst inside 30 days. Watch guidance more than the headline number. Keep position sizes disciplined into any report date on this board. The market rewards the trader who plans the trade before the catalyst, not the one who reacts to it.

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💸 High-Conviction Trade Setups

Arista Networks

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $173 –$176

Stop Loss: Close below $151

Target 1: $216.89 | Target 2: $261.68

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 (T1)

AI networking switch demand is still one of the cleaner second-order AI capex trades. The market can argue about individual chip names, but hyperscaler buildouts still need networking infrastructure, and ANET remains one of the best-positioned names in that stack. The entry zone between $172.88 and $176.17 is where risk/reward is still reasonable. Above $176, the easy money from the setup has already moved. The research stack supports the setup. ANET has an EPS beat of +7.7%, sell-side bullishness near 97%, and an earnings catalyst in 14 days. AI infrastructure spending has not reversed. Until it does, ANET deserves a seat.

Raytheon Technologies

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $192 –$193.25

Stop Loss: Close below $180.75

Target 1: $213.86 | Target 2: $236.60

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 (T1)

RTX is the defense-prime setup on the board. The thesis is backlog visibility, defense spending acceleration, and the market continuing to price geopolitical risk. RTX has a diversified revenue base across defense and aerospace, which gives it a different durability profile than a pure-play defense name. RTX also has a near-term timing piece: an EPS beat of +17.0%, net positive analyst sentiment, and an earnings catalyst in 19 days. That is enough to justify the seat on the board, but only with the stop attached.

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You’ve Seen the Free Board. Here’s What You’re Missing.

The free board this week gives you ANET and RTX; two real trades with defined entries, defined stops, and clear catalysts. That is the standard. Every setup on the paid board is built the same way.

The paid board is where the edge gets sharper. Direct Energy exposure while crude stays firm, the strongest healthcare name with a GLP-1 tailwind, and a turnaround trade with industrial beta and an earnings catalyst inside three weeks.

One clean trade can cover the subscription. That is not a slogan. It is the math of getting better setups.

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👋 Welcome Back, Traders

Last week, the board was built around the Defensive Rotation setups with PANW, CAT, MPC, LRCX, and MS, and overall the tape delivered. PANW hit Target 1. MPC is operating profitably, and zero stops have been hit. The discipline and subscription to Market Insights & Trading Trends continues paying!

This week, the tape has clarified a few more things. ES is sitting down towards 7,500, NQ is around 29,400, VIX has cooled into the 16 range, and WTI is trading around $68. That combination is signalling something specific: this is not a fearful market, but it is not a complacent one either. Volatility is compressed, not gone. Levels still matter. Catalysts still matter. Opinions still don’t!

The rotation this week has brought out a new leader. Capital is moving into Financials (XLF) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY), while Materials (XLB), Staples (XLP), and Energy (XLE) are giving back ground. That is the cluster telling you the market is betting on economic resilience and the consumer holding up. The market is not as bullish on commodity re-inflation or defensive safety. Every setup on this week’s board sits directly inside those flows. As always, there’s no heroics, and definitely no chasing. Define entries, set close-based stops on entry, and let the structure do the work.

📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

Here’s how the June 25, 2026 | Defensive Rotation setups performed against current prices. Another strong week for MITT subscribers! 3 setups working, 1 hitting targets, and 0 stops hit overall. A start to potentially another clean sweep!

— TARGET 1 HIT 🌟. Entered the $288-$290 zone, pushed all the way to $358+, blowing past the $352.23 T1. Runners still working toward T2 at $422.20. Take profits as they come; $422+ is a very large move, don’t let this green trade go red because of greed.

— Entry was just triggered this week, and we are sitting around $955. The setup is still valid; the stop at $853 stays in place, and we wait for CAT to establish its base for the next push upwards towards T1: $1,332.90.

— Working and in profit hitting $270+, and pushing toward T1 ($280.69). Entered cleanly near the $250 zone, now up double digits per share with stops locked in. Patience is getting rewarded. (Stop: $230 | T1: $280.69 | T2: $315.67)

— Working with great entries given today for anyone who has waited to get in on this trade. Sitting below the entry zone, but still above the stop. If you are trading this, I would keep stops in place at $300.

— Developing perfectly, giving great entries and finding temporary support right above our stop. Still below our given entry. Hold with everything in place as we look for Morgan Stanley to attempt to push back towards a new high as financials continue catching a bid this next week.

Net result: 1 clear winner, 1 working and in profit, 3 setups still in progress, zero stops hit, zero losses on the board. Everything accounted for. This kind of week compounds to build accounts!

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📚 Weekly Insight: Why This Rotation Has More Room to Run

When Financials lead, and Consumer Discretionary follows, that combination is the market pricing in one very specific scenario: economic resilience with a consumer that is still spending. It is the market saying the soft landing is real, not just a talking point, and that credit conditions and earnings visibility in rate-sensitive sectors have improved enough to attract institutional money.

Here is what we see driving XLF specifically. Banks and financial services companies are the direct beneficiaries of a stabilizing rate environment. When the yield curve is no longer inverted or actively compressing net interest margins, the earnings case for financials improves dramatically. Add in that capital markets activity is picking back up. M&A, IPO pipelines, plus debt issuance, and you have two tailwinds hitting simultaneously. That is why MS was on last week’s paid board. This is also why the financial sector rotation is worth paying attention to beyond just the ETF!

XLY is a different story with the same conclusion. Consumer Discretionary is moving because spending data hasn’t cracked. The consumer is still in it. Mortgage rates have started to ease. Credit card delinquencies, while elevated, haven’t exploded higher. That means the discretionary sector (the part of the market most exposed to the consumer’s willingness and ability to spend) is getting a re-rating as worst-case scenarios get priced out.

What to watch for a reversal: if XLF starts stalling at the same time credit spreads widen and the 2-year Treasury spikes again… the rotation loses its foundation. That combination would signal the rate stability thesis is being challenged. It hasn’t happened yet, and until it does, lean with the flow!

Rules that can help you define this week’s playbook:

Rule 1: Identify the driver before you size the trade. Not all XLF or XLY names are equal. Know whether the name you’re in is moving on sector flows, earnings revisions, or a pure technical squeeze.

Rule 2: Use volatility to improve entry, not to justify chasing. If the entry zone has already broken to the upside before you get in, the trade is not the same trade anymore. VIX at 16 is not zero; there will be pullbacks. Wait for them!

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💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups

(Snowflake)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $249–$254

Stop Loss: Close Below $217.05

Target 1: $311.33

Target 2: $375.86

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

Snowflake is a play on the AI-driven data platform cycle that is just entering its commercial acceleration phase. The Snowflake AI model marketplace and Iceberg open table format are expanding both addressable market and pricing power simultaneously. The entry zone catches this at structure rather than chasing momentum. A close below $217.05 kills the thesis. T1 at $311.33 maps to the prior resistance shelf. T2 at $375.86 is the asymmetric extension if the catalyst continues delivering. EPS beat +21.9%, sell-side is 86% bullish, 13 PT raises / 1 upgrade in the last 45 days, avg PT raise +17%. Great setup IMO.

(Palantir Technologies)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $125–$127.50

Stop Loss: Close below $106

Target 1: $161.66

Target 2: $199.82

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

Palantir fits this week’s board for two reasons compounding simultaneously: government AI contract expansion is accelerating as defense agencies push toward AI-native infrastructure, and the commercial ramp is proving more durable than most sell-side models assumed. The entry zone is not at the high, or inside the recent push higher; it’s where the risk/reward turns favorable. A close below $106 kills the thesis. T1 at $161.66 takes profit at the next structural resistance. T2 at $199.82 is the extension if institutional flows follow the government catalyst narrative. EPS beat +18.1%, 1 PT raise / 2 upgrades in the last 45 days, earnings catalyst in 32 days 👀

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You’ve Seen the Free Side. Here’s What You’re Missing.

The free ideas this week, SNOW and PLTR, are researched trades with defined risk. But they play the broader tape. The paid board sharpens the edge: tighter invalidation, cleaner catalyst paths, and vehicles built for this week’s specific rotation microstructure. This week’s paid names play on the managed care re-rating as regulatory overhang clears, HBM/DRAM upcycle on AI server demand, and AI observability ramp with earnings approaching. One clean trade from either board covers the subscription for a month!

Upgrade and let the tape do the work.

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👋 Welcome Back, Traders

Last week, the board was built around the Iran Deal trade setups with ANET, RTX, BA, LLY, and EOG; those trades delivered. This week, the tape has already done some of the clarifying work for us. ES is sitting around 7,430, NQ around 29,750, VIX near 19, and WTI trading around $71. Those numbers tell you the post-Iran rotation is starting to mature, and so far, not reversing. What matters for traders this week is that the composition of the move is shifting underneath the surface.

The primary driver this week is, again, the continued sector rotation underneath the market. Capital is flowing out of Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and into Healthcare (XLV), Utilities (XLU), and Industrials (XLI). That rotation tells me one thing clearly: the market is getting selective. The easy, everything-goes-up phase is over. Now you have to know which story is moving your ticker, or you’re flying blind.

That rotation is the tell this week. If it stays orderly, ES and NQ can hold their lines and continue grinding higher. If the defensive bid accelerates, tighten exposure on any tech-heavy name on your board. Every setup below sits on the right side of those flows. As always, we want no heroics, no chasing. Define entries, set close-based stops, and let the structure do the work!

📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

Here’s how the setups from the June 19, 2026 | Iran Deal edition performed. A CLEAN SWEEP! Another winning week for MITT subscribers, with 5 out of 5 ideas being in profit as of today.

Working and in profit at $167.38, pushing toward T1. Patience was key for getting entry, but June 23rd & 24th gave great opportunities to enter in the low $160’s. We hit $169+ today, anywhere from $5-$10 of profit per share. (Entry: $162.53–$165.22 | Stop: $144.64 | T1: $198.50 | T2: $235.11)

Working and in profit, same story as ANET entry came down to $181, now we hit $189+, pushing toward T1 at $202.97. (Entry: $182.00–$185.00 | Stop: $171.53 | T1: $202.97 | T2: $224.34)

Working and in profit, hit a high of over $224 today, pushing toward target 1. Not as much profit as the first two ideas, but profit is profit! (Entry: $218.00–$220.00 | Stop: $200.82 | T1: $248.35 | T2: $280.66)

Working and in profit around $1,125, hitting a high of $1,145+. (Entry: $1,067.07–$1,080.00 | Stop: $995.00 | T1: $1,215.74 | T2: $1,367.07)

Working and also profitable at $134+, pushing toward T1 ($143.94). (Entry: $127.00–$129.00 | Stop: $118.32 | T1: $143.94 | T2: $161.35)

Net result: 5 for 5 every setup working and in profit, zero stops hit, zero setups still hunting for entry. A clean sweep, discipline is paying off. Every position is accounted for, and now we move forward with this week’s board with full confidence.

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📚 Weekly Insight: The Defensive Rotation Is the Trade

When Healthcare and Utilities are leading, and Technology and Discretionary are giving back gains, this shift shows the market is making a quality statement. Investors are not selling; they’re rotating into businesses with earnings visibility, pricing power, and low sensitivity to rate volatility. This is not a random or fearful rotation; it’s a structured one. XLV is catching a bid because healthcare earnings visibility is among the cleanest in the market heading into the back half of 2026. XLU is catching a bid because rate expectations have stabilized enough to make the dividend yield attractive again. XLI is getting inflows because infrastructure and reshoring narratives haven’t gone away. They’ve just matured past the headline phase into the actual capex cycle. These are distinct catalysts. A reversal in one doesn’t mean the others roll over. Know which one you’re in before you size it!

Four rules that define this week’s playbook:

Rule 1: Identify the driver before you size the trade. Not all XLV names are equal. Know whether the name you’re in is moving on sector flows, earnings revisions, or pure technical squeeze.

Rule 2: The most-mentioned name in a rotation is usually the most crowded entry. Find the same thesis in a cleaner technical setup, or one that isn’t trending on X/Wall Street Bets.

Rule 3: Use volatility to improve entry, not to justify chasing. If the entry zone has already broken to the upside before you get in, the trade is not the same trade anymore. Don’t let the FOMO get you, it never ends well.

Rule 4: Know where the kill switch is before you enter. Every position on this board has a defined close-based stop. That stop is not a suggestion. It’s the price that tells you the thesis is wrong. Every thesis needs a point where it is wrong.

In the long run, the market always rewards patience and precision over speed. The traders who do best here are the ones who already know the catalyst, already know the vehicle, and already know the exact price that invalidates the trade before they ever click buy. In a volatile Trump market, these rules should always be at the forefront of your mind.

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Profitable trading requires the right infrastructure. Here’s what I run daily:

📈 TradingView — Best charting platform for serious traders

💰 Top One Futures — 50%+ Off, easy rules, and instant funding available

💳 Robinhood Gold — Earn 4–4.5% APY on idle cash

📊 TrendSpider — Advanced watchlists, indicators, and market insights

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🎁 New resources and weekly bonuses → HERE

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Disclaimer: Some links are affiliate partnerships. I only recommend tools I actually use.

💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups

(Palo Alto Networks)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $285.24–$288.62

Stop Loss: Close Below $250.65

Target 1: $352.23

Target 2: $422.20

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

Palo Alto Networks earns this spot because AI-driven security platform consolidation is expanding both the addressable market and pricing power simultaneously, a rare combination at this valuation. The entry catches the trade at structure, not on hyped up momentum. A close below $250.65 kills the thesis. T1 at $352.23 maps to the prior resistance shelf. T2 at $422.20 is the asymmetric extension if the catalyst continues delivering. EPS beat +6.6%, sell-side is 80% bullish, 15 PT raises / 0 downgrades in the last 45 days, avg PT raise +33%.

(Caterpillar)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $1,018.39–$1,030.42

Stop Loss: Close Below $853.02

Target 1: $1,332.90

Target 2: $1,665.63

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

Caterpillar fits into this week’s board because the infrastructure and reshoring capex cycle is generating real demand visibility, and improving dealer sentiment is a leading indicator that this isn’t priced in yet. We want the entry zone, not strength above it. T1 at $1,332.90 takes profit at the obvious resistance. T2 at $1,665.63 is the asymmetric add if the move extends on catalyst continuation. EPS beat +19.3%, and overall, CAT has been a great company for a long time.

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You’ve Seen the Free Side. Here’s What You’re Missing.

The free ideas this week (PANW $285.24–$288.62 and CAT $1,018.39–$1,030.42) are real trades with defined risk. But they play the broader tape.

The paid board sharpens the edge: tighter invalidation, cleaner catalyst paths, and vehicles built for this week’s specific rotation microstructure rather than the most-mentioned names. One clean trade off the paid board covers the subscription. That’s the whole pitch.

Upgrade, get the full board with exact entries, stops, and target clusters, and let the tape do the work.

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👋 Welcome Back, Traders

Last week, the board was built around the SpaceX IPO narrative, and the trades delivered. This week, the tape has already done some of the work for us. The Iran nuclear deal framework sparked a meaningful risk-on rotation: energy risk premium compressed, defense names repriced, and tech + industrials absorbed the inflows. ES is sitting around 7,550, NQ around 30,700, VIX near 17, and WTI trading around $74. Those numbers tell you this is not a fearful market, but it is not a complacent one either. Structure still matters. Discipline still wins.

The primary driver this week is sector rotation, not a macro headline. Capital has been flowing into Technology (XLK) and Industrials (XLI), the two sectors with the cleanest earnings tailwinds and the most direct exposure to the post-Iran-deal reset. Money is rotating out of Materials (XLB) and Real Estate (XLRE), both of which face rate sensitivity and commodity margin pressure heading into the back half of the year.

That rotation is the real tell. If it stays orderly, both ES and NQ can hold their lines and grind higher. If it reverses, the tape flips fast. Watch the sector flows before the futures levels; the flows will tell you which scenario is developing before the index does. Every setup on this week’s board sits on the right side of those flows. No heroics. No chasing. Defined entries, close-based stops, and let the structure do the work.

📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

Here’s how the setups from June 12, 2026 | The Crowd Is Always Late, And the SpaceX IPO Proves It performed over the week. Another overall winning week for the MITT subscribers!

(LONG) — Sitting in the entry zone, consolidating longer than anticipated but sitting strongly above our stop level. Continue holding with stops and targets in place. (Entry: $399.00–$402.00 | Stop: $390.00 | T1: $446.08 | T2: $495.40)

(LONG) — Stopped out @ ~$509.06 (stop was $509.08). Lessons have been logged from this one; resistance around $536 was too much. We move on, smarter than before this lesson. (Entry: $536.71–$540.01 | Stop: $509.08 | T1: $631.45 | T2: $732.03)

(LONG) — Working and paying 💰 with the target 1 ($1,120.24) being hit on Wednesday, June 17th. Now it is @ ~$1,105, collecting more buyers to push past T1 towards T2! (Entry: $985.00–$995.00 | Stop: $935.00 | T1: $1,120.24 | T2: $1,260.41) Adjust your stops to guarantee profit!

(LONG) — So far a loss, sitting down around $42, this is still in play, but as we approach close today, keep an eye on it. If DVN is near $42 at 3:50 PM, I will be closing this for a small loss to protect capital. (Entry: $44.00–$45.50 | Stop: $42.00 | T1: $51.00 | T2: $57.00)

(LONG) — Working, paying, and sitting in profit @ $1,125+, pushing toward T1 ($1,182.57). (Entry: $854.49–$878.98 | Stop: $691.27 | T1: $1,182.57 | T2: $1,516.52)

Net result: 2 clear winners (in profit or targets hit), 2 setups still working or sitting in their entry zones, 1 setup stopped out, more winners than losers! Your discipline is paying off. Every setup is accounted for, and now we can get today’s ideas out with confidence.

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📚 Weekly Insight: Two Catalysts, One Trade. How to Navigate the Post-Iran, Post-Fed Tape

Two things happened in ~72 hours that completely reset how this market is priced. Trump signed an interim MOU at the Palace of Versailles, ending the US-Iran war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. On the same day, the Fed, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, held rates at 3.50–3.75% but delivered a hawkish shock: 9 of 19 FOMC officials now project a rate hike before year-end, the median dot moved to 3.8%, and the 2-year Treasury surged 16bps to 4.22% overnight. No PEMDAS here; those two events don’t cancel each other out. They create a specific kind of tape, one where you have to know which story is driving each ticker before you size it!

Here is what the Iran deal actually did to the tape: WTI dropped to ~$74, a 3-month low, as markets priced in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the return of Iranian barrels. That compressed the energy risk premium that had been embedded in everything from input costs to freight rates to inflation expectations. Lower oil means lower near-term CPI pressure, which means the Fed’s hand is slightly less forced. But here’s the tension: the bond market doesn’t fully believe it yet. The 2-year Treasury is sitting near 4.22%, well above the Fed’s current 3.50% to 3.75% band. That spread tells you the fixed income market is still pricing in a hike. Until the 2-year comes in meaningfully, rate-sensitive sectors like Real Estate and long-duration growth names remain structurally under pressure regardless of headline risk-on sentiment.

The sector rotation framework for this week is more nuanced than most are treating it. Capital is flowing into Technology (XLK) and Industrials (XLI), but for different reasons. XLK is benefiting from the risk-on re-rate that follows any geopolitical de-escalation, plus the AI infrastructure buildout thesis that never went away during the war. XLI is catching a different bid: the Iran deal removes a key supply chain headwind and post-war reconstruction narratives. Infrastructure, defense modernization, and industrial re-shoring are beginning to get priced in. These are distinct catalysts. A rotation reversal in one doesn’t necessarily mean the other rolls over. Know which one you’re in before you size it.

The takeaway for this specific week: you have two powerful tailwinds operating simultaneously… Geopolitical de-escalation and a Fed that’s finally signaling it’s done guessing. But neither of those tailwinds is unconditional. The Iran deal still needs the formal agreement signed on June 19. The Fed’s hike signal means rates could go higher if oil bounces and inflation re-accelerates. Volatility is compressed, not eliminated. The best trade on this week’s board isn’t the most exciting one. It’s the one where the entry is clean, the stop is defined, and the thesis maps to the actual macro driver. Know the catalyst. Know the vehicle. Know the exact price that kills the trade before you put on the position!

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🎁 New resources and weekly bonuses → HERE

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Disclaimer: Some links are affiliate partnerships. I only recommend tools I actually use.

💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups

(Arista Networks)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $162.53–$165.22

Stop Loss: Close Below $144.64

Target 1: $198.50

Target 2: $235.11

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

Arista Networks earns its spot because of AI networking switch demand from hyperscaler buildouts. The entry catches the trade at structure rather than chasing momentum. Invalidation is clean: a close below $144.64 and the thesis is gone. T1 at $198.50 maps to the prior resistance shelf, T2 at $235.11 to the momentum extension if the catalyst lands.

Research note: EPS beat +7.7%, the sell-side is 97% bullish on the name, and recent price-target revisions show 8 PT raises / 0 upgrades.

(RTX Corp)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $182–$185

Stop Loss: Close Below $171.53

Target 1: $202.97

Target 2: $224.34

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

The setup at RTX Corp: defense spending acceleration with clean backlog visibility. We want the entry zone, not strength above it. Stop is mechanical; a daily close beneath $171.53 kills it. T1 ($202.97) takes profit at the obvious resistance; T2 ($224.34) is the asymmetric add if the move extends.

Research note: EPS beat +17.0%, the last 45 days have brought net positive analyst actions, and there’s an earnings catalyst in 33d that could re-rate the stock.

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You’ve Seen the Free Side, Here’s What You’re Missing…

The free ideas this week, ANET and RTX, are good trades with defined risk. But they play the broader tape.

The paid board sharpens the edge: tighter invalidation, cleaner catalyst paths, and vehicles built for this week’s specific microstructure rather than the most-mentioned name. One clean trade off the paid board covers the subscription.

Upgrade, get the full board with exact entries, stops, and target clusters, and let the tape do the work.

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👋 Welcome Back, Traders

Last week, the board was built around the non-farm payrolls, and positioning accordingly ahead of that event. This week, the tape has already clarified a few things. With ES sitting around $7,330+, NQ around $29,100+, VIX near 20, and WTI trading around $85. Those numbers matter because they tell you this is still a market where levels and catalysts matter more than opinions. Especially Iran/war catalysts, news around those still hold the market hostage for the time being.

The next real inflection point will be watching sector rotations. We have been seeing capital rotating into Consumer Staples (XLP) and Energy (XLE), and rotating out of Utilities (XLU) and Financials (XLF). That is the cluster that can either keep the current squeeze alive or quickly break the structure.

📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

Here’s how the June 4th setups from NFP Is the Trigger. Are You Positioned? performed over just 1 week of time.

(LONG) — Working and in profit, up from entry $961 → $989, still moving toward T1 ($1,056.85). (Entry: $953.15–$960.89 | Stop: $901.56 | T1: $1,056.85 | T2: $1,162.41)

(LONG) — Sitting in the entry zone ~$15, watching for confirmation toward T1 ($17.32). The pullback in VALE was perfect for our entry, and it formed a base before our stop! (Entry: $15.00–$16.00 | Stop: $14.50 | T1: $17.32 | T2: $19.22)

(LONG) — Working and in profit hit $269+, pushing toward T1 ($303.98). MPC has pulled back slightly today but remains above our entry. Take profits as you get them! (Entry: $262.00–$265.00 | Stop: $241.00 | T1: $303.98 | T2: $347.12)

(LONG) — Working beautifully and in profit @ $310+, pushing toward T1 ($331.48). Hold for targets and take profits as you get them. (Entry: $306.00–$307.75 | Stop: $293.00 | T1: $331.48 | T2: $357.62)

(LONG) — Stopped out around $10.50 (stop was $11.50). Lesson logged, moving on. (Entry: $13.50–$14.50 | Stop: $11.50 | T1: $17.65 | T2: $21.76)

Net result: 3 winners (in profit, no targets hit yet), 1 setup still working sitting near entry, 1 setup stopped out. More winners than losers, which is what matters most, discipline is paying off. Every setup accounted for.

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📚 Weekly Insight: The Crowd Is Always Late And Usually Wrong

SpaceX is going public this week. It’s the largest IPO in history. The Reddit threads are on fire, the group chats are buzzing, and retail investors are lined up at Fidelity and Robinhood to get their piece. This is exactly where I want you to slow down and think.

The crowd is always the last to know. By the time the IPO hype reaches your feed, the insiders, the venture firms, and the institutional allocators have already been positioned for years. They are not buying alongside you at $135 a share; they are selling to you.

This is not me saying SpaceX is a bad company. It’s not. SpaceX is probably one of the most impressive businesses ever built. But here’s the thing: Warren Buffett has been saying for decades that a great company and a great investment are not the same thing. Price matters, entry matters. The crowd doesn’t care about either. I like to think about it this way: if following the crowd worked, the general public would be as wealthy as the investors they’re chasing. The average retail investor consistently underperforms the market.

The SpaceX IPO is a case study in manufactured retail FOMO. 30% of the shares are being allocated to retail, which sounds great until you realize that’s $22 billion dollars of stock dumped into hands that historically flip or panic sell within weeks. JPMorgan’s own data shows 86% of retail investors chase intraday momentum and sell intraday dips on new listings. The institutions know this. The structure is designed around it.

So what should you do?

Don’t chase the loudest ticker; identify the ripple effects. The space sector ETFs, the satellite infrastructure plays, the defense and propulsion names that are cleanly set up on the chart are the trades where the disciplined trader looks. Not at $SPCX on day one.

The rules haven’t changed

Rule 1: Identify what the catalyst is moving, not what the media says it is.

Rule 2: Choose the cleanest vehicle, not the most famous ticker.

Rule 3: Use volatility to improve your entry, not to chase.

Rule 4: Know your invalidation before you size the trade.

The tape always rewards discipline. The traders who come out ahead this week are the ones who identified the real driver, chose a cleaner vehicle, defined their entry with precision, and knew the exact price that proved them wrong. Discipline is not exciting, but it is what separates consistent traders from the crowd, and the crowd is almost always late.

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🔥 Tools I Use Every Day

Profitable trading requires the right infrastructure. Here’s what I run daily:

📈 TradingView — Best charting platform for serious traders

💰 Top One Futures — 50%+ Off, easy rules, and instant funding available

💳 Robinhood Gold — Earn 4–4.5% APY on idle cash

📊 TrendSpider — Advanced watchlists, indicators, and market insights

🎥 Market Insights & Trading Trends YouTube — Breakdowns + Live trading

🎁 New resources and weekly bonuses → HERE

📓 New on Etsy: 2026 Trading Journal Spreadsheet

Disclaimer: Some links are affiliate partnerships. I only recommend tools I actually use.

💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups

(UnitedHealth)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $399 – $402

Stop Loss: Close Below $390

Target 1: $446.08

Target 2: $495.40

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

UnitedHealth earns its spot because managed care resets as regulatory overhang clears and valuation mean-reverts. The entry catches the trade at structure rather than chasing momentum. Invalidation is clean: a close below $373.97 and the thesis is gone. T1 at $446.08 maps to the prior resistance shelf, T2 at $495.40 to the momentum extension if the catalyst lands. In my opinion, any expression of managed care/healthcare as the boomers age is a smart place to invest overall.

(Lockheed Martin)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $536.71 – $540.01

Stop Loss: Close Below $509.08

Target 1: $631.45

Target 2: $732.03

Risk/Reward: ~3.2:1 to T1

The setup on Lockheed Martin was better prior to the boom intraday today. Defense budget tailwind plus missile defense and munitions demand cycle. We want the entry zone, not strength above it. A daily close beneath $509.08 kills it. T1 ($631.45) takes profit at the obvious resistance; T2 ($732.03) is the asymmetric add if the move extends. Patience will be needed for a pullback to get a decent entry, but don’t chase above $543.

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You’ve Seen the Free Side, Here’s What You’re Missing…

The free ideas this week, UNH and LMT, are solid trades with defined risk. But they play the broader tape.

The paid board sharpens the edge: tighter invalidation, cleaner catalyst paths, and vehicles built for this week’s specific microstructure rather than the most-mentioned name. One clean trade off the paid board covers the subscription.

Upgrade, get the full board with exact entries, stops, and target clusters, and let the tape do the work.

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👋 Welcome Back, Traders

Let’s get straight to it. The previous issue’s thesis centered on claims as the pivot, and this week, we saw significant developments that have once again shifted the market’s focus.

The ES is currently trading around 7600, the NQ around 30570, the VIX is near 15.4, and WTI crude is around 92. This week’s major developments include the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate announcements on June 5th, which can significantly impact index positioning, rate expectations, and risk appetite.

The market has been reacting to these events, and we’ve seen notable moves in sector ETFs, with XLE, XLK, and XLF leading inflows, while XLRE, XLP, and XLU are experiencing outflows. The next major catalyst window opens up tomorrow, June 5th, with the Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate releases. These events can shift the market’s direction, and you need to be prepared.

These events change the playbook, and we need to focus on the key support and resistance levels for the ES, NQ, and other major indices so we can be positioned accordingly. One trade can cover the subscription, but that only works if we are selective and tactical in our approach.

Let’s break down the key levels and catalysts, and get ready to trade!

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📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

Here’s how the May 28th setups from Claims Are the Pivot performed.

(LONG) — Sitting toward the top of the entry zone $178+ | Entry: $177.61–$178.72 | Stop: $170.19 | T1: $206.29 | T2: $236.62 RTX pulled back but respected the upward trend, we are looking for a continued push to break and hold above $180. Keep your stops in place, consider moving them up to a close below $171.

(LONG) — Paying and working @ $69.50+ | Entry: $61.81–$62.61 | Stop: $56.45 | T1: $72.58 | T2: $83.55 Entry on FCX in the exact entry zone was difficult, but any buy on Thursday, Friday, and even Monday after the last edition was published would be in profit today! A clean winner.

(LONG) — Working @ $218+ | Entry: $223.31–$225.49 | Stop: $208.76 | T1: $252.55 | T2: $282.32 BA gave entries as it pulled back all the way to the $209 range, but staying above our stop. Keeping stops in place, moving the stop up to $209.

(LONG) — Working @ $1,127+ | Entry: $1,120.82–$1,130.54 | Stop: $941.37 | T1: $1,457.44 | T2: $1,817.03 LLY was a perfect setup as it pulled back from Friday until Wednesday, giving a great entry zone while staying above the stop zone. Now as it pushes into the next leg up you can hold until targets 1 and 2 are hit.

(LONG) — Winner that’s still working @ $140+ | Entry: $132.18–$133.24 | Stop: $125.07 | T1: $146.46 | T2: $161.00 EOG was the best play from last week. Friday gave the perfect entry, and it’s been a series of green candles since then, hitting a high of $142.92!

Net result: 2 clear winners that are already in profit, 3 that are still working, 0 stopped. Every setup accounted for, a clean sweep of no losses from the last edition so far!

Share Market Insights & Trading Trends

📚 Weekly Insight: How to Navigate a Market Dominated by Oil Prices

Here are the key rules to keep in mind when navigating this current market:

1. Choose the cleanest vehicle, not the loudest ticker: With various sector ETFs and individual stocks showing different levels of inflows and outflows, it’s essential to select the most appropriate vehicle for your trade.

   1. Example: XLE (Energy) and XLK (Technology) have seen significant inflows, while XLP (Consumer Staples) and XLU (Utilities) have experienced outflows.

2. Focus on risk management: The current market conditions require a disciplined approach to risk management. This includes setting defined entries, close-based stops, target clusters, and catalyst windows.

3. Stay informed about upcoming catalysts: Economic events, such as the Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate announcements, can significantly impact the market. It’s crucial to stay informed about these events and adjust your trading strategy accordingly. Don’t get caught flat-footed in the markets!

By following these rules and staying focused on the key market drivers, you can navigate the current market conditions effectively and make informed trading decisions. Stay ready with Market Insights & Trading Trends, so you don’t have to get ready when the time comes.

🔥 Tools I Use Every Day

Profitable trading requires the right infrastructure. Here’s what I run daily:

📈 TradingView — Best charting platform for serious traders

💰 Top One Futures — 50%+ Off, easy rules, and instant funding available

💳 Robinhood Gold — Earn 4–4.5% APY on idle cash

📊 TrendSpider — Advanced watchlists, indicators, and market insights

🎥 Market Insights & Trading Trends YouTube — Breakdowns + Live trading

🎁 New resources and weekly bonuses → HERE

📓 New on Etsy: 2026 Trading Journal Spreadsheet

Disclaimer: Some links are affiliate partnerships. I only recommend tools I actually use.

💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups

(Costco)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $953.15 – $960.89

Stop Loss: Close Below $901.56

Target 1: $1,056.85

Target 2: $1,162.41

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

Costco earns its spot because consumer resilience anchors with a membership renewal catalyst. The entry catches the trade at structure rather than chasing momentum. Invalidation is clean: a close below $901.56 and the thesis is gone. T1 at $1,056.85 maps to the prior resistance shelf, T2 at $1,162.41 to the momentum extension if the catalyst lands. This will be an entry you have to wait for, don’t chase!

(Vale)
TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $15 – $16

Stop Loss: Close Below $14.50

Target 1: $17.32

Target 2: $19.22

Risk/Reward: ~1.8:1 to T1

The setup on Vale is a play on the iron ore/copper torque from China stimulus. We want the entry zone, not strength above it. A daily close beneath $14.52 kills it. T1 ($17.32) takes profit at the obvious resistance; T2 ($19.22) is the asymmetric add if the move extends.

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You’ve Seen the Free Side. Here’s What You’re Missing…

The free ideas this week, COST ($953.15–$960.89) and VALE ($15–$16), are real trades with defined risk. But they play the broader tape.

The paid board sharpens the edge: tighter invalidation, cleaner catalyst paths, and vehicles built for this week’s specific microstructure rather than the most-mentioned name. One clean trade off the board covers the subscription. That’s the whole pitch, only upgrade after a few free winners if you prefer!

Upgrade, get the full board with exact entries, stops, and target clusters, and let the tape do the work.

Get A Free Trial Today

Cancel anytime.

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👋 Welcome Back, Traders

My fellow traders, welcome back to another MITT edition! Last week, the board was built around May 21, 2026 | Defense + Industrial Rotation. The thesis held and the tape has now clarified the immediate path forward. We are no longer guessing at direction. We are measuring distance.

ES futures are trading around 7,581.00. NQ futures are around 30,321.50. VIX is near 15.68. WTI is around 88.81. The ten-year yield sits near its recent range. These are the operating conditions for the week, not background noise. Levels and catalysts decide outcomes. Broad sentiment does not pay the margin. Precision does.

The inflection point is Continuing Jobless Claims on 2026-05-28. That print is the pivot. It either keeps the current squeeze alive or quickly breaks the structure. Size and stops should account for the risk on both sides of the number. Carrying blind leverage into a hot tape print is how good months turn into bad weeks.

The market is pricing in a soft landing with sticky inflation. The data prints will test that narrative. If claims drop, the squeeze continues. If they rise, the rotation accelerates. You need to be positioned for the move, not surprised by it.

We are tracking the microstructure closely. The VIX at 15.68 suggests complacency. Complacency is dangerous. It leads to oversized positions and loose stops. We tighten up. We respect the levels. We let the market tell us where the money is flowing.

The ten-year yield is the silent driver here. It dictates the cost of capital for growth stocks and the discount rate for value plays. When yields move, everything moves. We watch the yield curve for signs of inversion or steepening. That tells us where the institutional money is heading.

This week is about execution. Not a prediction. Prediction is for amateurs. Execution is for professionals. You have the plan. You have the levels. You have the risk parameters. Now you need the discipline to follow them.

No heroics. No chasing. No hoping. Just clean, mechanical trades with defined risk and clear targets. That is how you compound. That is how you survive.

Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

Here is the live ledger on the setups from May 21, 2026 | Defense + Industrial Rotation. Every grade uses live marks pulled within the last 30 minutes. We do not hide losses. We do not inflate wins. This is the full scorecard, with the free and paid sides together.

(LONG) Working… Entry $136.91 to $139.69. Stop $130.66. T1 $155.68. T2 $166.80. We had to wait for our entry, but now we are entered and holding with the stop in place.
(LONG) T1 & T2 HIT at $320+. Entry ~$295, a little higher than our given entry. Stop $273.00. T1 $295.00. T2 $308.00. This paid entry had to be taken higher than our given range.

(LONG) WORKING at $535+. Entry $518.00 to $528.00. Stop $500.00. T1 $568.00. T2 $595.00. Pushing higher and paying, take profits as they come. This is a winner, don’t let it go red!

(LONG) WORKING at $258.38. Entry $244.00 to $252.00. Stop $234.00. T1 $272.00. T2 $288.00. Well above our entry now, and moving towards T1!

(LONG) WORKING at $896.62. Entry $865.00 to $882.00. Stop $845.00. T1 $920.00. T2 $960.00. Came within $9 of target 1, still sitting up over $10+ from highest entry. This is another winner that we are holding for target 1: protect your profits along the way.

Net result on 5 setups: 1 hit both targets, 3 working above entry, 0 stopped. 1 still in or under the entry zone. Every setup accounted for. No disappearing trades. No fake wins.

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Weekly Insight: Catalyst, Structure, Invalidation, Asymmetry

The traders who compound through weeks like this can name four things on every position they hold. The catalyst. The structure. The invalidation price. The realistic asymmetric payoff. Four answers. Every setup. No exceptions.

Catalyst explains why a name is on the board this week but not last week. A fresh earnings beat. A guidance raise. A macro print that shifts the rate path. A supply event that the tape has not priced. A structural rerating with multi-quarter visibility. If you cannot point to one of those, the position is a hope trade. Hope is not a strategy. It is a liability dressed up as conviction.

Structure tells you where to enter. Not the highest tick of the day. Not the breakout candle you missed by ten minutes. The price level at which prior buyers have shown they care. Where stops cluster on the other side. Where volume builds the shelf. You enter where the market is already showing you it wants to go. Anything else is paying retail for a wholesale move.

Invalidation is the price below which the thesis is gone. One number. Not a range. Not a feeling. If your stop is fuzzy, you do not have a stop; you have a wish. A clear invalidation forces you to admit you are wrong before being wrong becomes expensive. That is the entire job of risk management.

Asymmetry is the realistic payoff once the move extends. T1 is the obvious resistance the tape already respects. T2 is the level the catalyst earns if it actually plays out. The math has to clear 1.5-to-1 from entry to T1, measured against the stop. Below that, the trade does not earn its seat on the board, no matter how compelling the story.

This week, the board is built on that exact logic. Every name below has a fresh catalyst, a clean structural entry, a mechanical invalidation, and a payoff that justifies the risk. Walk through each one and apply the four-question test before you take the trade.

We are not here to gamble. We are here to trade. Gambling relies on luck. Trading relies on logic. Logic is built on facts. Facts are found in the data. The data is in the charts. The charts tell the story. Listen to them.

The four-question test is your filter. It removes the noise. It highlights the signal. It keeps you focused. It keeps you profitable. Use it every time. Every single time.

If you skip the test, you are gambling. If you gamble, you will lose. Eventually. Maybe not today. Maybe not this week. But eventually. Do not be the guy who eventually loses. Be the guy who consistently wins.

The market rewards patience.

It punishes impulsivity.

It rewards discipline.

It punishes the ego.

Be patient. Be disciplined. Be humble. The rest will follow.

Share Market Insights & Trading Trends

🔥 Tools I Use Every Day

Profitable trading requires the right infrastructure. Here’s what I run daily:

📈 TradingView — Best charting platform for serious traders

💰 Top One Futures — 50%+ Off, easy rules, and instant funding available

💳 Robinhood Gold — Earn 4–4.5% APY on idle cash

📊 TrendSpider — Advanced watchlists, indicators, and market insights

🎥 Market Insights & Trading Trends YouTube — Breakdowns + Live trading

🎁 New resources and weekly bonuses → HERE

📓 New on Etsy: 2026 Trading Journal Spreadsheet

Disclaimer: Some links are affiliate partnerships. I only recommend tools I actually use.

💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups

(RTX Corp)

View Chart on TradingView

Entry Zone: $177.61 – $178.72
Stop Loss: Close Below $170.19
Target 1: $206.29
Target 2: $236.62

RTX is the cleanest defense-spending expression on the free board this week. Backlog visibility is strong, the recent EPS beat reinforces earnings quality, and the setup provides a disciplined way to express the defense theme without chasing. The entry zone between $177.61 and $178.72 is where the structure stays clean. Above that, the trade becomes sloppy. A daily close below $170.19 invalidates the thesis. T1 at $206.29 is the first obvious resistance shelf, while T2 at $236.62 is the extension if the catalyst continues to work.

(Freeport-McMoRan)

View Chart on TradingView

Entry Zone: $61.81 – $62.61
Stop Loss: Close Below $56.45
Target 1: $72.58
Target 2: $83.55

FCX is the cyclical growth expression on this board. It gives you direct exposure to copper, industrial demand, and the part of the tape still rewarding real-economy beta outside the most crowded tech trades. The entry stays clean inside $61.81 to $62.61. A daily close below $56.45 kills the thesis and removes the trade. T1 at $72.58 is the first resistance shelf, and T2 at $83.55 is the extension if the cyclical bid continues to build.

You’ve Seen the Free Side. Here’s What You’re Missing…

RTX and FCX are real trades with defined entries, clear invalidation, and clean catalysts. They deserve a spot on any serious trader’s radar this week.

But the paid board goes one level deeper.

This week’s paid setups offer tighter structure, cleaner catalyst paths, and better alignment with the current aerospace, pharma, and energy rotation. One clean trade can cover the subscription.

Get A Free Trial Today

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👋 Welcome Back, Traders

Last week hit us with a rough board. Four stops, one winner pressing toward the target. The honest recap is below, and it matters because the way you process a losing week is exactly what separates traders who compound from those who chase.

ES is sitting around $7,460. NQ is around $29,480. The numbers haven’t collapsed. The structure hasn’t broken, but the tape is telling you something if you’re willing to listen: this is not a week to be careless with entries or sloppy with position sizing. This is a week where the discipline pays more than the directional bet.

This week’s inflection point is Building Permits and Housing Starts, hitting Thursday at 12:30 ET. That’s the print that either keeps the current squeeze alive or breaks structure fast heading into the Memorial Day weekend. The macro calendar lightens after today, which means the tape is going to trade off price action and positioning rather than headlines. Know your levels. Know your stops. Show up with a plan.

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📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

Here’s the honest audit. Use it as a post-trade review, what happened, why it happened, and what it means for how you approach this week.

The setups came from the May 14, 2026, edition.

NVDA (Long) — ❌ Stopped. Entry: $232.00–$236.00 | Stop: Close below $226.00 | T1: $248 | T2: $260. After two straight weeks of crushing targets, NVDA ran into the FOMC Minutes volatility and closed below the $226 line. That’s the stop. That’s the trade. The thesis was real — semis are still the strongest sector in the market — but the macro event hit exactly where the setup was most vulnerable. Close below the line is a close below the line.

PLTR (Long) — ✅ Working. Entry: $131.50–$134.50 | Stop: Close below $127.00 | T1: $142 | T2: $150. PLTR is at $138+, above entry, stop untouched. The AI/defense/government data thesis is intact. Let it work.

META (Long) — ❌ Stopped. Entry: $617–$622 | Stop: Close below $608 | T1: $642 | T2: $658. META closed below $608, taking us out. The ad-tech structure broke on the broader tech unwind post-FOMC. Stop did its job and protected capital, no drama.

MU (Long) — ❌ Stopped. Entry: $782–$795 | Stop: Close below $768 | T1: $820 | T2: $845. MU closed at $756.44, stop triggered. Memory names got caught in the same tech de-rating. The thesis was clean; the macro timing was not.

CCJ (Long) — ❌ Stopped. Entry: $110.50–$113.50 | Stop: Close below $107 | T1: $122 | T2: $129. CCJ stopped at $103.43. The uranium setup got caught in the broader commodity unwind as WTI volatility bled into related energy expressions.

Net result: 4 stops triggered, 1 active and working. That’s the board.

The thing about weeks like this is that the stops worked exactly as designed. No one had to make an emotional exit decision mid-session. Every trader who followed the plan with a defined size walked away with controlled losses rather than account damage. The traders who got hurt this week were the ones who either sized too large or held through the stops, hoping for a bounce. That’s a discipline problem.

One rough week doesn’t change the system. The system is what carries you through it.

📚 Weekly Insight: How to Survive Losing Weeks Without Blowing Up Your Next One

Four stops in one week will test every trader’s conviction. Some will overtrade next week, trying to recover fast. Some will size down so aggressively that they can’t participate when the setups pay. Both are wrong.

The traders who come out ahead after a rough week do one thing differently: they run the exact same process on Monday that they ran the week before. Same criteria. Same discipline. Same stops. The only adjustment is position size, and only if the loss requires it to stay within your risk parameters.

Here’s the framework to carry into this week:

Rule 1: Don’t inflate size to chase back losses. A $500 stop-out doesn’t justify a $2,000 risk on the next trade. The edge is in the system, not in the revenge bet.

Rule 2: A stopped trade is a completed trade. It is not an open loop. The moment the price closes through your stop, the trade is over. Re-entering the same name the next day because “it’ll bounce back” is a new thesis, and it needs new justification, not just hope.

Rule 3: Assess the macro backdrop, not just the chart. Last week’s FOMC Minutes were the fuel source that broke the setups. This week’s tape is cleaner. Building Permits and Housing Starts are the only real catalysts before the long weekend. Understand the environment before you size the position.

Rule 4: One clean, disciplined trade beats four emotional ones. If this week gives you one setup that pays T1 cleanly, that is a winning week. You don’t need to recover everything at once. You need to start compounding again.

The key takeaway: the traders who survive losing weeks are the ones who didn’t compound them.

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💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups

EOG Resources

View Chart on TradingView

Entry Zone: $136.91 – $139.69
Stop Loss: Close Below $130.66
Target 1: $155.68
Target 2: $166.80
Risk/Reward: ~2.0:1

WTI at $100+ is not a coincidence on this board. Crude is holding the $100 level that sent energy risk premiums higher over the last two weeks, and EOG is the cleanest large-cap E&P expression of that move. The entry zone at $136.91–$139.69 keeps you aligned with the current price structure, not buying into a news spike. A close below $130.66 tells you the crude thesis is breaking down, not just pulling back, and that’s your clean exit. T1 at $155.68 is the first rerate zone; T2 at $166.80 is the extension if WTI continues to hold above $100 heading into the summer. Direct oil leverage, large-cap balance sheet, and clear invalidation. That’s the setup.

GE Aerospace

View Chart on TradingView

Entry Zone: $278.50 – $282.00
Stop Loss: Close Below $273.00
Target 1: $295.00
Target 2: $308.00
Risk/Reward: ~2.1:1

GE Aerospace is a clean defense and aerospace play with structural tailwinds, institutional backing, and a clear catalyst in the rearview mirror. The Q1 beat was real: EPS came in 16% above consensus, and orders hit $23B, an 87% surge year-over-year. The stock sold off on unchanged guidance, a classic institutional overreaction to a non-negative. Support is currently in the $278–$282 zone. A close below $273 says the post-earnings consolidation has turned into a distribution, and you exit clean. T1 at $295 is the first resistance cluster above; T2 at $308 is the extension toward analyst target clusters. This is a proven earnings machine with defense contract visibility that doesn’t need macro cooperation to work.

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You’ve Seen the Free Side. Here’s What You’re Missing…

EOG and GE are real trades. Defined entries, clear stops, clean thesis. They belong on any serious trader’s watchlist this week.

But the paid board goes one level deeper.

This week’s three paid setups target sectors with sharper asymmetry and lower macro correlation. All three have tighter invalidation windows and a higher setup score than anything on the free side.

Here’s the only math that matters. One trade covers the subscription.

You don’t need every trade to work. You need clear asymmetry, a defined stop, and the discipline to let the targets come to you. The paid board is built around exactly that structure, every single week.

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Welcome Back, Traders

The ES is holding comfortably above the 7,483 bull/bear line. NQ is respecting the 29,480 structural support and pushing into the 29,500–29,700 resistance cluster. The VIX sits in the 17s, WTI crude is trading near the $ 100s, and the 10-year yield is easing toward 4.45%. This is a risk-on setup heading into a packed macro week ahead.

Last week’s thesis was centered on navigating the Trump-Xi Summit and positioning into NFP. This week brings Retail Sales MoM (May 14, 12:30 ET), FOMC Minutes (May 20), and Building Permits + Housing Starts (May 21, 12:30 ET), three fairly high-impact events that will define tape structure and rates expectations for the next two weeks.

That changes our playbook. As always, one trade can cover the subscription if you stay disciplined and let the targets come to you.

📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

Here’s how the May 7, 2026 setups from ES and NQ Above the Line, NFP at 12:30 ET Friday are performing heading into this week.

Free Setups:

NVDA — Both targets crushed! 💰 Entry: $209.50–$211.50 | Stop: Close below $204.50 | T1: $218 | T2: $224. NVDA made new ATHs off the entry zone. Huge winner with target 2 hit on Wednesday!

AAOI — Mixed Results, counting as an L. Entry: $161.00–$167.50 | Stop: Close below $154.80 | T1: $180 | T2: $191. Volatile name, as flagged at entry; unfortunately, we closed below our stop on May 8th. Then, on Monday-Wednesday, we went and hit $230 plus. Counted as an L, but some subscribers got the win!

Paid Setups:

AMD — Another target 2 big win! 💰 Entry: $402–$406 | Stop: Close below $390 | T1: $420 | T2: $434. The entry zone was difficult to hit, but AMD cleanly moved above $450 on May 11th. Easy win that paid well.

SMCI — 🔄 Active, and Target 1 hit 💵 Entry: $31–$34 | Stop: Close below $27.50 | T1: $36 | T2: $40. High-beta AI infrastructure play tracking the breakout retest. Sized smaller as noted, but the asymmetry remains excellent. Take profits at the targets, still holding 70% for target 2!

TLT Short — 🔄 Active and paying!. Entry: $86.00–$86.50 | Stop: Close above $88.50 | T1: $84 | T2: $82. Downtrend intact. Lower highs, lower lows. Stop untouched as we near target 1.

Net result: 2 clean targets, 1 and 2 winners, 2 active setups, 1 stopped. Clean slate, very profitable week, congrats to those of you who banked with us!

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Weekly Insight

The dominant market event this week was the Trump-Xi Summit, which triggered a sharp rally in ES and NQ on May 13 as trade-deal optimism reset risk appetite.

The next real test happened today at 12:30 ET, Retail Sales MoM. The consensus is 0.5% MoM (down from 1.6% prior), and the market is pricing in a muted response. A surprise above 0.8% would likely push ES and NQ higher, a sub-0.2% print could trigger a quick retest of the 7,375/28,750 bull/bear lines.

Key rules to apply to your trading frameworks in the next week.

1. Choose the cleanest vehicle, not the loudest ticker. In a high-noise market, focus on liquid instruments with defined risk/reward and close-based invalidation.

2. Define your entries and exits. With ES at 7,483 and NQ at 29,632, use close-based stops and target clusters to manage risk and maximize returns.

3. Monitor catalyst windows. We have Retail Sales (today), FOMC Minutes (May 20), and Housing Starts (May 21), all of which are high-impact events that can shift index positioning and rate expectations.

4. Focus on risk/reward. With VIX above 17, maintain a disciplined approach to position sizing and target-setting.

5. Stay accountable, acknowledge losing trades without defensiveness, and use them as an opportunity to refine your strategy.

FOMC Minutes on May 20 at 18:00 ET, which can shift the playbook for both indices and single-name setups. Be prepared before the meeting so you don’t get caught flat-footed.

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💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups

(NVIDIA)

📊 View Chart on TradingView

Entry Zone: $232.00 – $236.00

Stop Loss: Close Below $226.00

Target 1: $248.00

Target 2: $260.00

NVDA is leading this tape. The semiconductor complex is the strongest sector in the market right now, XLK just posted the largest 6-week rate of change in its history, and NVDA is the anchor. The entry zone catches the current price with a clean close-based stop at $226. That’s your invalidation level; if it closes below there, the thesis is done, and you’re out. T1 at $248 and T2 at $260 are defined by the prior resistance cluster and momentum extension. One AI infrastructure catalyst or earnings whisper accelerates the move. This is the highest-probability vehicle in the highest-momentum sector on the board.

(Palantir Technologies)

📊 View Chart on TradingView

Entry Zone: $131.50 – $134.50

Stop Loss: Close Below $127.00

Target 1: $142.00

Target 2: $150.00

Palantir is up as of midday May 14, right inside the entry zone. Palantir is the cleanest AI/defense/government data play in the market right now. The government contract pipeline is expanding, the commercial segment is accelerating, and institutional positioning is building. A stop at $127 is below the prior consolidation base, giving you a clear line in the sand. T1 at $142 and T2 at $150 are defined by the prior ATH resistance cluster and momentum extension. This is the most accessible high-conviction name on the board this week; liquid, defined risk, and directly in the AI thesis without chasing a $200+ stock.

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You’ve Seen the Free Side, Here’s What You’re Missing…

The free ideas we’ve shared pay out; last week’s NVDA hit both targets. But let’s be clear: the paid board is where the edge gets sharper.

One single trade can cover the subscription, and we’re not just talking about any trade. We’re talking about high-conviction setups with defined entries, close-based stops, and target clusters that account for macro catalysts and technical structure.

The difference between our free and paid ideas is simple: on the free side, you get a glimpse of what’s possible. On the paid side, you get the full playbook that helps you make informed decisions. So why wait?

Join us on the paid board and start trading with an advantage. The upcoming catalysts, including Retail Sales (today), FOMC Minutes, and Building Permits, are poised to shift the market, and we’re ready to capitalize on them.

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👋 Welcome Back, Traders

In the last edition, we built our thesis around the Fed-pause narrative and leaned into mega-cap earnings as the clearest expression of that view. This week, the market is testing that thesis head-on.

ES last closed right at the 7,300–7,400 resistance band, with the bull/bear line at 7,200. NQ closed at the 28,250–28,800 resistance cluster, bull/bear line at 27,600. The VIX has eased into the low 17 range. This signals to me that the market is quietly pricing in a slowdown in growth.

May 8 Non-Farm Payrolls at 12:30 ET. Consensus is 60k, down from a prior 178k. A print near that soft would instantly re-price rate expectations, pull the dollar lower, and give equities a reason to extend. A hot surprise above 120k would do the opposite, revive rate-hike fears and test those bull/bear lines fast.

If the payroll number comes in near consensus, we’ll likely see a short-cover rally in rates-sensitive names and a bounce in the energy complex, giving stocks like EOG a second wind. If it surprises to the downside, expect a rapid re-acceleration of the rate-cut trade, a rally in bonds, and a potential breakout above ES 7,400 / NQ 28,850.

Everything this week is conditional on that print. Know your levels, know your stops, know the kill switch. The setup board and full playbook are below.

Stay sharp.

📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

Here’s how the April 30th setups from ES Holding, NQ Rotating | Core PCE, GDP, and the Next Move performed against the current board.

Free Setups

XOM (Exxon Mobil) — 🔄 Active, near entry. Entry: $147.75–$150.75 | Stop: Close below $143.25 | Targets: $162.00 / $170.25. XOM is holding near the entry zone as WTI pulls back 4.56% on the week. The balance-sheet thesis holds until price says otherwise.

NXPI (NXP Semiconductors) — Target 1 hit 💰. Still active and monitoring. Entry was 275.00 – $285.00, Stop Loss: Close Below $265.00, targets at $300.00 and $320.00. NXPI is in the post-beat-and-raise digestion phase. The semiconductor complex has continued to receive inflows (XLK weekly inflows +5.99%), which keeps the backdrop supportive. Watch for a clean close above the consolidation high as the trigger.

Paid Setups

MSFT (Microsoft) — 🔄 Short thesis being tested as we sit near the stop at $426. MSFT entered the week on the back foot, with the paid thesis calling for continued relative weakness. With NQ holding 27,600 and tech broadly receiving inflows post-GOOGL/AMD beats. If we stay below the stop, the thesis will remain intact.

BA (Boeing) — ✅ Working. Entry: $226.00–$235.00 | Stop: Close below $221.00 | Targets: $266.00 / $282.00. Current high of ~$236.00. Boeing continues to grind higher. Earnings turnaround + defense/industrial rerating is the thesis, and it hasn’t been invalidated. Stop is intact. Let it work.

AMZN (Amazon) — 🔄 Gap-and-hold retest active, and paying, reaching ~$3 short of target 1. With PCE/GDP now in the rearview and the consumer-spending picture still intact, AMZN’s demand backdrop hasn’t deteriorated. The thesis holds above the stop level. Watch the May 12 CPI print as the next catalyst window.

Net result: 3 concrete winners (NXPI, BA, AMZN), 1 under active watch for stop (MSFT short), 1 free setups in live entry zones (XOM). No stops triggered this cycle. Keep the stops and let them do the work.

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📚 Weekly Insight: Choose the cleanest vehicle, not the loudest ticker.

Most traders walk into a week like this and immediately ask: what’s going to move the most? That’s the wrong question.

The right question to ask is ‘what is the cleanest expression of the thesis I actually believe, with the tightest possible invalidation?'

NFP, unemployment, and Michigan Sentiment all hit on Friday. The loudest tickers will whip in both directions. The cleanest vehicles, the ones with the most direct tie to the macro driver and the best-defined stops, are where the alpha lives.

Four rules for this week specifically:

Rule 1: Identify the driver before you size the trade.
This week, the driver is the labor market print and its rate-expectations feedback loop. Everything else is secondary noise.

Rule 2: Choose the cleanest vehicle, not the most famous ticker.
EOG is a cleaner crude expression than a broad energy ETF. BA is a cleaner industrial turnaround play than the broad XLI. DVN is a cleaner oil-beta vehicle than a leveraged ETF on a volatile print day.

Rule 3: Use volatility to improve entry, not to justify chasing.
VIX is compressing into the event at 17.18. That compression is a gift in disguise; it makes defined-risk entries cheaper. Use it to improve your price, not as an excuse to size up early.

Rule 4: Know the kill switch before you enter.
ES 7,200. NQ 27,600. Those are the lines. Everything above them is your sandbox. Below them is exit territory, no exceptions, no hopeium.

What I’m actively watching this week: Adding EOG and XOM on confirmation inside the entry zones, keeping BA intact with original stop, watching ES/NQ bull/bear lines as the macro throttle, and running the paid energy/refiner board (MPC, DVN) as direct crude-repricing vehicles into and post-NFP.

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💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups

(Applied optoelectronics) TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $161.00–$167.50

Stop Loss: Close below $154.80

Target 1: $180

Target 2: $191

AAOI is the most volatile name on the board today, and I would wait to enter in Friday’s session instead of rushing entry today. Because of that volatility, the best structure is to let it work inside $161.00–$167.50 and use a hard close below $154.80 as the kill switch. T1 and T2 line up with a retest of the recent high zone near its 52-week high of $191.87.

(NVIDIA)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $209.50 – $211.50

Stop Loss: Close below $204.50

Target 1: $218

Target 2: $224

NVDA is making new all-time highs and running with strong volume across the move. The stock has been in a clean impulse leg from the $180–$185 base, and today's push through $208–$210 is the continuation signal. The entry zone at $209.50–$211.50 lets you buy the first pullback into the breakout range rather than chase the spike. A close below $204.50 is the clean invalidation; it would take out the last higher-low and say the breakout failed. T1 at $218 and T2 at $224 are the next logical extension levels based on the prior impulse structure.

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You’ve Seen the Free Side. Here’s What You’re Missing…

AAOI and NVDA are real trades. Good ones. Defined risk, clean vehicles, macro-aligned thesis.

But they aren’t the sharpest asymmetric setups I found this week.

The paid board goes one level deeper every week.

Here’s the only math that matters.

One trade can cover the subscription.

The BA from the April 30 edition is already running at $239, up from a $229 entry, if you were on the paid board. That’s what professional risk/reward looks like; you don’t need every trade to be a home run. You need clear asymmetry and actual discipline.

The May 8 NFP window opens in less than 24 hours. Miss the catalyst, and you’re left chasing second-derivative noise.

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👋 Welcome Back, Traders

Two things are true at the same time this week.

This is where traders either compound last week’s wins or give them all back, trying to replay the same script on a different tape.

ES is still holding above 7,170. NQ is not leading. That split matters more than the headline index number. ES is up +0.03% on the week, NQ is down -0.34%, and VIX has cooled to 17.92 from 18.81. No panic, just rotation.

Last week was about all-time highs and quality growth getting rewarded. This week is about whether that leadership can survive the first real macro test after the breakout. Energy is the top inflow, and technology is sitting in the outflow column. That tells you institutions are not abandoning risk, but they are getting more selective about where they want it.

Your line in the sand is simple: ES needs to hold 7150, and NQ needs to hold 27150. Above those levels, the market can still reward strong individual setups. Below them, the tape gets defensive fast. Core PCE and GDP hit today. That is the next real test.

This is where traders get themselves in trouble. They remember last week’s winners, assume the same names keep working, and ignore the fact that the tape has already changed. I do not care what worked last week if the money flow is telling a different story today. The job is to stay aligned with the current rotation, not defend an old thesis because it felt good when it was working.

📊 Last Week’s Trade Performance Recap

Use this section as your post‑trade audit: what worked, what didn’t, and why the reaction mattered more than the headlines.

Here’s how the April 23rd setups performed through Thursday’s open.

BA (Boeing) — In the entry zone, holding. Entry: $229–$234; stop: close below $221; targets: $250/$262. BA is trading around the entry zone. The post-earnings turnaround thesis remains intact; Morgan Stanley’s $250 target from the Q1 beat remains the structural anchor, and the broader market backdrop has been supportive. No stop triggered, no target hit yet. Clean and active.

EOG Resources — Above entry, working. Entry: $131–$134; stop: close below $126; targets: $147/$158. EOG closed Wednesday at $139.03, cleanly above the entry zone and up on the session. The energy risk premium from the Iran tanker situation provided direct tailwind, and EOG’s Q1 earnings are confirmed for May 6th; that’s your next binary catalyst. T1 at $147 is the next level to watch. Stop intact, thesis strengthening.

META (Meta Platforms) — Beat earnings, stop triggered on CapEx shock. META posted adjusted EPS of $7.31 vs. the $6.67 estimate and revenue of $56.3 billion vs. $55.36 billion expected. A genuine beat on both lines. But the market’s reaction is all that matters: Meta raised 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $125–$145 billion (up from the prior $115–$135 billion), and internet disruptions in Iran weighed on user metrics, sending the stock down 10% on the print. META closed Wednesday at $669.12 (squarely in the entry zone), then gapped to ~ $622 at Thursday’s open, slicing cleanly through the $645 stop and proving that the market’s reaction to CapEx mattered more than the beat on EPS and revenue.

AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) — Winner… T1 hit, T2 in sight. Entry: $295–$308; stop: close below $282; targets: $335/$365. AMD is the standout winner of this edition. The stock absorbed a brief mid-week pullback to the $310–$323 range before surging to $337.11 on Wednesday, hitting T1 at $335. As of Thursday morning, AMD is trading around $348 and continuing to grind toward T2 at $365. Earnings are still May 5, which means this setup delivered ahead of the catalyst. Stop was never threatened.

GOOGL (Alphabet) — Earnings crushed, T1 in range. Entry: $334–$342; stop: close below $324; targets: $360/$380. GOOGL delivered one of the cleanest beats of the quarter: EPS of $5.11 vs. $2.63 expected, revenue of $109.9 billion vs. $106.6 billion estimated, and operating margins expanding to 36.1%. Cloud revenue hit 18% of the business and is accelerating. The AI narrative flipped exactly as the setup projected. Alphabet is up approximately 5% on the earnings reaction today, with T1 at $360 already tagged and T2 at $380 the next level up. The stop was never in question, another large win.

Net result from April 23: AMD and GOOGL hit T1 and are pressing T2. EOG is above entry with a clean catalyst ahead on May 6. BA is holding in the entry zone with the stop fully intact. META triggered its stop on a CapEx-driven selloff despite beating estimates on revenue and EPS, clear proof that the reaction always matters more than the report. That’s 1 stop out, 2 setups actively paying and working toward large move targets, and 2 more holding structures with live catalysts still ahead. That’s how disciplined risk/reward trading is supposed to look! The winners cover the stops, every setup is accounted for, and profits are secured.

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📚 Weekly Insight: How to Trade a Breakout and Avoid the Fakeouts

Retail traders will make the same mistake after a breakout week.

They see the index hold up, assume the whole market is healthy, and start buying every dip that looks familiar. That works when leadership is broad. It does not work when ES is green, NQ is red, and money is rotating into Energy while Technology leaks…

Rule 1: Index strength is not the same thing as leadership. ES near 7,170 tells you buyers are still defending the broader tape. NQ down -0.34% tells you the growth trade is not getting a free pass. Trade the names confirming strength, not the names you wish were confirming.

Rule 2: Rotation is information. Energy up +3.98% while Technology is down -1.87% is institutional behavior. That does not mean you short every chip stock. It means your long setups need cleaner catalysts and tighter invalidation.

Rule 3: Macro days require close-based discipline. Core PCE is estimated at 0.3% and GDP at 2.3%. Intraday wicks around those numbers can be ugly. If your plan says close below, trade the close below. Not your emotions at 10:17 AM.

Rule 4: The best setup is the cleanest expression of the tape. GOOGL is relative strength. AMD is a selective semiconductor strength. MSFT is a mega-cap weakness. That is a cleaner board than forcing three longs because the index is near highs.

The key takeaway: trade confirmation, not memory. Last week’s winners do not owe you another move. This week, the tape has to prove it again.

That is the difference between trading a plan and trading nostalgia. A plan says, here is my level, here is my invalidation, here is the reason this ticker should move. Nostalgia says, this name worked before, so it should work again. One compound’s capital. The other slowly turns a good week into a round trip to $0.

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💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups

(Exxon Mobil)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $150 – $155

Stop Loss: Close Below $145

Target 1: $162.50

Target 2: $170

Risk/Reward: ~1.5:1 to T1

Integrated oil balance-sheet expression in liquid major with crude leverage. The invalidation is simple: a close below $143.25 means the thesis is wrong for this week, not just early. Target 1 is the first balance-sheet rerate zone; Target 2 only matters if integrated oil starts catching the same bid as the E&P names. This is the liquid major for traders who want energy exposure with balance-sheet protection.

(NXP Semiconductors)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $275.00 – $285.00

Stop Loss: Close Below $265.00

Target 1: $300.00

Target 2: $320.00

Risk/Reward: ~1.9:1 to T1

This is the sleeper setup of the edition, and the one most readers aren’t watching. NXP Semiconductors reported Q1 results on Tuesday, and a Q2 guide that put EPS at $3.29–$3.72 with revenue of $3.35–$3.55 billion, well above Street estimates. The stock gapped 26% from $230.39 to $283.06, hit an intraday high of $288.88, and has since cooled into the $278–$283 range. That consolidation is the entry window. NXP is the dominant player in automotive and industrial semiconductors, the categories where AI hardware integration is driving a structural demand cycle that has nothing to do with data center GPU cycles. The beat-and-raise structure, combined with a pullback into the breakout gap, sets up a clean continuation trade with a well-defined stop below the gap at $265.

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You’ve Seen the Free Side, Here’s What You’re Missing…

The two setups above are real trades. Good ones. Complete ones.

But they are not the best asymmetric opportunities I found this week.

The three paid setups below are where the edge gets sharper. They rank higher on the full board because the catalyst path is cleaner, the invalidation is tighter, and the upside is less dependent on everyone crowding into the same mega-cap tech names.

And here’s the only math that matters.

One trade can cover the subscription.

You do not need every trade to become a home run. You need clear asymmetry, actual discipline, and a plan before the move happens.

This is not the week to be underprepared.

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👋 Welcome Back, Traders

Last week, I told you this edition would be directed by three things: TSLA's Robotaxi story, GOOGL's Cloud numbers, and whether the broader economy was still holding together. Two of those three have now played out.

Tesla reported Tuesday night. EPS came in at $0.41 vs. $0.34 expected, free cash flow hit $1.44 billion against expectations for negative $1.86 billion, and operating income cleared the bar cleanly. The stock caught a ~4% afterhours bid, and then faded. A beat, but the market's reaction told you the bar was already high.

WTI crude staged the most important reversal of the week. Oil that had been sitting near $83 dropped to the low $80s early Monday, then violently ripped back above $92–$93 by Tuesday/Wednesday as the US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. That is not noise. That's the energy risk premium reasserting itself, and it changes the playbook for energy setups this week.

As of Wednesday's close, the S&P 500 sat at 7,137.90, just off its all-time high of 7,147 hit earlier in the week. NQ futures are holding near 26,943. The VIX is contained around 19.03, but intraday readings touched 20.85 on Tuesday when the tanker headlines hit. GOOGL reports April 29. The Fed decision is also on April 29. That's the next real inflection point, and it's what this edition is setting you up for.

📊 Last Week's Trade Performance Recap

Here's how the April 16th setups performed through Wednesday's close.

Free Setups

VZ (Verizon) — In the entry zone, holding. Entry: $45.50–$46.50; stop: close below $44; targets: $49/$51.50. VZ is sitting around $47, right above the entry zone. RSI was deeply oversold at entry, and the stock has held its structure through a volatile macro week. Earnings are on April 27, that's the binary catalyst this setup was built around. No stop triggered. Still active and on watch.

DVN (Devon Energy) — Working, above entry. Entry: $45–$46; stop: close below $43.50; targets: $49.50/$52.50. DVN is trading around $48, cleanly above the entry zone. The oil reversal gave great entries on Friday, then with WTI ripping from the low $80s back above $92, that is a direct tailwind for this setup. T1 at $49.50 is the next level to watch. Stop intact, thesis strengthening.

Paid Setups

MPC (Marathon Petroleum) — Pulled back below entry, and hit the stop with a close below $219. MPC pulled back as oil briefly collapsed early Monday, then recovered. The crack spread thesis remains intact, but the stop was obeyed to limit losses.

CSGP (CoStar Group) — Below entry, approaching earnings catalyst, and watching for a stop trigger today. Entry: $39.50–$40.75; stop: close below $37.50; targets: $46/$51. CSGP is trading around $36.50. Earnings are on April 28, which was always the binary event this trade was structured around. The stop at $37.50 should be watched into today’s close. If earnings deliver even a mild positive surprise on a stock down 59% from its highs, with Wall Street consensus targets at ~$57, T1 and T2 can happen fast. Still barely active.

XOM (Exxon Mobil) — At entry, oil reversal changes outlook. Entry: $150–$153; stop: close below $146; targets: $162/$170. XOM is trading around $150, but the WTI reversal back above $92 this week is exactly the macro setup this trade needs. The support shelf between $148–$152 has held. With oil reasserting itself and analyst consensus targets at $162–$163, this setup is gaining traction. Stop intact.

Net result from April 16: DVN is above entry and working. VZ and XOM are at or near entry with intact stops and live catalysts ahead. MPC hit its stop, and CSGP is barely holding on with earnings on April 28 looming. 1 stop triggered. Every setup accounted for. A break-even week so far.

Share Market Insights & Trading Trends

📚 Weekly Insight: How to Trade the Oil Reversal Without Getting Whipsawed

The single most disorienting thing that happened this week wasn't TSLA earnings. It wasn't the SPX hitting all-time highs.

It was WTI crude going from $82 to $93 in ~48 hours.

That kind of move, a 13%+ swing in the world's most important commodity, exposes every trader who doesn't have a framework for it. Most retail traders do one of two things when oil whipsaws like this: they either chase the reversal at the top, or they freeze and miss the move entirely. Neither response builds your long-term P&L.

Here's A simple framework for trading violent oil reversals.

Rule 1: Identify the driver before sizing the trade.

There are two types of oil spikes: demand-driven and supply-shock-driven. This week's move was a supply shock (the seizure of a US Navy vessel in the Strait of Hormuz), injecting a geopolitical risk premium back into the market. Supply-shock spikes are faster and more violent than demand-driven moves, but they're also more prone to reversal once the headline fades. You trade them tighter and with smaller size than a structural demand shift.

Rule 2: The downstream plays often have cleaner setups than crude itself.

Trading WTI directly means you're competing with algos, energy desks, and geopolitical intelligence you don't have. The smarter move is in the downstream expression: E&P names with direct crude leverage (DVN), refiners where crack spreads determine margin (MPC), and integrated majors where the balance sheet buffers volatility (XOM). These names move with oil but give you more defined technical setups to trade against.

Rule 3: Use the volatility to find better entries, not to chase.

When WTI dropped to $82 on Monday, energy names sold off hard. That was the entry window, not Tuesday, when oil was already back at $90. The best energy trades are entered during the panic, not during the recovery. If you missed Monday's low, the question now is whether the $92-$93 range holds as support on a retest. That retest, if it comes, is the next clean entry point to look for.

Rule 4: Know what can kill the move.

The Iran negotiation timeline is the kill switch for this oil trade. If peace talks in Pakistan produce a credible deal, WTI quickly gives back $8-$12. But don’t think that's a reason to avoid energy setups; instead, just make sure you size them appropriately and keep your stops tight. The energy risk premium is real, but it's not permanent. You trade it with conviction and defined risk, not with oversized positions and hope.

The takeaway: The oil reversal this week was a signal, not noise. The traders who capitalize on it are the ones who know which vehicles to use, enter during the panic rather than the recovery, and keep stops tight enough to survive a fade if the geopolitical situation de-escalates. Energy setups with defined risk and clear levels are the highest-conviction plays heading into next week.

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💎 High-Conviction Trade Setups

(Boeing)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $229.00 – $234.00

Stop Loss: Close Below $221.00

Target 1: $250.00

Target 2: $262.00

Risk/Reward: ~2.1:1 to T1

Boeing just printed its first earnings beat of the season. Q1 EPS came in at ($0.20), beating the consensus of ($0.39) by $0.19. Revenue hit $22.22 billion, up 14% year-over-year, clearing the $21.78 billion estimate. The commercial jet business is healing faster than Wall Street modeled. Morgan Stanley responded this morning by raising their price target from $245 to $250. The Street consensus sits at $254.60 with a Moderate Buy rating, and JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Tigress are holding even higher targets. BA has been a broken story for two years. This quarter is the first genuine evidence that the turnaround is real. The stock has not run away from you. Entry in the $229–$234 zone keeps risk below the pre-earnings close at $219, with T1 at the Morgan Stanley target and T2 at the upper end of institutional consensus. This is no longer a broken company. The tape is starting to agree.

(EOG Resources)

TradingView Chart

Entry Zone: $131.00 – $134.00

Stop Loss: Close Below $126.00

Target 1: $147.00

Target 2: $158.00

Risk/Reward: ~1.9:1 to T1

WTI crude ripped from $82 to above $93 in 48 hours this week on the Iran tanker seizure in the Strait of Hormuz. That is the energy risk premium reasserting itself with force, and EOG is the cleanest large-cap E&P expression of it. EOG is the efficiency king of the shale patch: the company generated $4.7B+ in free cash flow in 2025 at lower average oil prices, runs one of the tightest balance sheets in the sector, and consistently beats production targets. Right now, it's consolidating at the base of its prior breakout zone in early April. The 24-analyst consensus average target is $147. If WTI holds above $90, which the geopolitical backdrop supports, EOG has room to run hard to T1 and beyond before Q2 earnings even hit the tape. Entry in the $131–$134 zone is clean, stop is below the recent consolidation base, and both targets align with institutional price clusters.

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You've Seen the Free Side, Here's What You're Missing…

The two setups above are real trades. Good ones. Complete ones.

But they aren't the best asymmetric opportunities I found this week.

The three paid setups below are where the edge gets sharper.

And here's the only math that matters.

One trade can cover the subscription.

Our previous FCX and AMD trades generated enough profit on one share to cover a few months of paid subscription. That's what professional risk/reward looks like; you don't need every trade to become a home run. You need clear asymmetry and actual discipline.

The tape is near another all-time high.

This is not the week to be underprepared.

Get A Free Trial Today

Cancel anytime…

Refer a friend

🔒 Paid Subscriber Bonus Plays

Read more