IMAGE: Daniel Carson/AFL Photos

Fremantle were comprehensively beaten by Hawthorn in their Qualifying Final on Thursday night, and with it went their chance at beating the bird gauntlet for 2026.

If you’re unfamiliar with the bird gauntlet, it is a concept borrowed from the National Football League (American Football) and is achieved when a team plays and defeats all five of the bird-themed teams – the Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, and Seattle Seahawks – throughout the season.

We can apply this concept to the AFL and see if a team can go through the year (including finals) without dropping a game to Adelaide, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Sydney, and West Coast (the Crows, Magpies, Hawks, Swans, and Eagles, respectively).

The Dockers, who held a 12-0 record at Optus Stadium coming into the clash, had gone up against a bird team on seven occasions throughout the home and away season and emerged victorious each time.

Justin Longmuir’s side squeezed past Adelaide by two points in Round 4, survived a soggy game against Collingwood in Round 6, used Warfie Time to great effect against Hawthorn to get past Hawthorn in Round 9, recorded their second biggest win in club history against Sydney in Round 18, demolished the Eagles in the second Derby for the year in Round 20, and guaranteed they would finish 2026 on top of the ladder with a four goal win over the Crows in Round 23.

But they fell short against the Hawks in the Qualifying Final, kicking just one goal to half time and only five for the match.

“I thought their contest method was a lot better than ours,” Longmuir told reporters after the loss. “They were probably a little bit more decisive to get it to the outside, offer pressure, and that stopped us getting a forward half game. But it also created opportunities for them.”

“And then down the other end, we just got stuck in our back half, especially early. In the first half we had 20 back half turnovers… we’re usually keeping teams to that for a [whole] game, and we just got stuck in our back half. That’s where the damage was done.”

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As I highlighted earlier in the year, Fremantle have traditionally struggled in the bird gauntlet. Since joining the league in 1995, the Dockers have only made it past their first encounter with a bird team on six occasions.

Winning seven games against avian adversaries before crashing out against the Hawks is by far their best performance in club gauntlet history, almost doubling their four wins against bird teams in 2015.

The team that stopped their run 11 years ago? Hawthorn, who beat Fremantle by 72 points in Round 15. The Hawks would also knock the Dockers out of the finals later that year on the back of a 27-point win in a preliminary final.

The minor premiers will now turn their attention to the Geelong/Carlton elimination final on Friday night, with the winner of that sold out clash at the MCG set to travel across the country for a semi final encounter with the Dockers next week.

And bird gauntlet enthusiasts will have to wait until 2027 to see if an eighth side will join Richmond (1995), Essendon (2000 and 2001), Geelong (2009 and 2025), St Kilda (2009), and Port Adelaide (2020) in successfully overcoming all ornithological opponents over the course of a season.

Perceived Pressure

There’s a record number of Indigenous All-Australians in 2026. Why are Indigenous numbers declining in the AFL?

Last Tuesday night a record five Indigenous players were named in the 2026 All-Australian team: Wayne Milera (Adelaide, Narungga-Gunditjmara), Jarman Impey (Hawthorn, Yorta Yorta), Shai Bolton (Fremantle, Noongar), Kysaiah Pickett (Melbourne, Yamatji-Noongar-Ngarrindjeri…

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4 days ago · 3 likes · Lincoln Tracy

Damian Barrett has once again beaten Midweek Rub cohosts Leigh “Joey” Montagna and Dale “Daisy” Thomas in the completely unofficial tipping competition that I’ve tracked throughout the year, finishing the home and away season with 145 correct tips to Montagna’s 139 and Thomas’ 136.

All three men performed similarly in 2026 compared to their 2025 totals, with Barrett and Montagna doing slightly worse (147 and 140 last year, respectively), with Thomas doing slightly better (134).

The red wine and tequila aficionado was the most consistent tipper throughout the season, with the former footballers both getting more correct tips on just three occasions: Rounds 9, 22, and 23.

Round 9 was the only time any of the tipsters had a perfect round, with both Montagna and Thomas getting every tip in the round correct. Barrett missed out, going eight-from-nine after incorrectly tipping Port Adelaide over the Western Bulldogs.

Luke Beveridge’s side would again be the thorn in Barrett’s come Round 22 (with Montagna being the only tipster to pick the North Melbourne upset), while the muscle car driver also tripped up in the penultimate round when he picked his Kangaroos to beat Geelong amidst the Hawthorn/Collingwood and Carlton/Bulldog draws.

Despite this, Barrett picked up enough correct tips when he needed it, grabbing the lead after Round 1 and holding it for the remainder of the year.

Joey, Daisy, and Damo went the whole season without a round where they tipped all the same teams. However, there were five occasions where there was only one inconsistent tip:

• Opening Round – Joey (incorrectly) tipped St Kilda over Collingwood

• Round 6 – Joey (incorrectly) tipped the Western Bulldogs over Geelong

• Round 9 – Damo (incorrectly) tipped Port Adelaide over the Western Bulldogs

• Round 16 – Daisy (incorrectly) tipped Sydney over the Brisbane Lions

• Round 21 – Joey (incorrectly) tipped Gold Coast over Melbourne

Montagna, the former St Kilda superstar, shared the love in 2026 and tipped every team at least once. He backed Brisbane and Fremantle more than any other side (20 times each), although his beloved Saints weren’t too far behind (16 times). The Greek wombat was less confident about Collingwood and Carlton, who both made finals), picking them just seven times each.

While tipping Fremantle proved fruitful for Montagna (18/20, 90.0% strike rate), he also had a good read on when to tip North Melbourne (8/9, 88.9%). Unfortunately, he put too much stock in the Gold Coast (8/14, 57.1%) and St Kilda (10/16, 62.5%).

Like Joey, Daisy picked every team at least once at some point during the season. The Dockers were again a popular pick (20 times, the most for Thomas), along with the Gold Coast (19), and Brisbane, Hawthorn, and Sydney (all 18).

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But the only man to play 100 games for both Carlton and Collingwood also fell into the trap that was the Suns (9/19, 47.4%), although going a collective 0-6 when tipping Essendon, Richmond, and West Coast probably didn’t help him either. On a more positive note, the Triple M and Channel 7 media darling went 10 from 11 when backing the Pies (90.9%).

Damo tipped every team at least once, apart from Richmond, and you can’t blame him for not backing the Tigers given how poor they have been in recent years. After picking Geelong every round last year he cooled on the Cats slightly this time around, only tipping them 19 times, with his love for Fremantle coming through (tipping the Dockers in 21 of their 23 games this season).

The former Quill Award winning journalist had the best strike rate when tipping Sydney (18 from 19, or 94.7%) but was let down somewhat by Geelong’s inconsistent season (13/19, 68.4%). Damo also went one-from five when picking the Eagles and none-from-two when picking Essendon.

The trio of tipsters tipped the same team in 133 games and were right on 101 of these occasions. This translates to a respectable strike rate of 75.9%. It’s completely unsurprising to see that the Dockers were the most frequent consensus pick (18 times), ahead of the Lions (16) and the Swans (14). And while it was rarer for all three to back the Crows, Saints, and Giants in the same game, there was good success in these games, missing just one game for each team.

There were 16 occasions where Damo went against the grain of what Joey and Daisy tipped (excluding the Essendon v Hawthorn game in Round 20 where Joey and Daisy refused to submit a tip after the Essendon v GWS game the week before was completely forgotten about, and the Bombers won). Barrett was correct on six of these occasions, or 37.5% of the time.

Daisy (26 times) and Joey (29 times) were bolder than Damo when it came to breaking from the pack in their tipping. However, going rouge was more fruitful for the latter than the latter, with Joey going 11/29 (37.9%) and Daisy going 8/26 (30.8%).

Thanks to the Midweek Rub team for another enjoyable year, and congratulations to Damo on his achievement. Here’s hoping for an exciting finals series!

The home and away season for 2026 comes to a close this weekend, and with it comes the end of footy tipping for another year.

It also presents a potentially tricky decision for the 236 people who are still alive in the gauntlet competition on tipping.afl.com.au – where the last tipster standing can claim up to $2000 cash.

I’ve written about how gauntlet tipping works in more detail here, but the bottom line is that you need to pick one week that each of the 18 teams will win. You can only pick one team per week, and once you’ve picked that team you can’t pick them again. If you get your tip wrong, you’re out.

The gauntlet tipping season started with a larger number of competitors compared to years gone by, with the site listing 210,821 players for 2026 compared to the 83,393 who took part in 2025 and the 84,261 included in 2024.

I’m not sure why there was such a significant jump in the number of people included in the competition, but as they say, the more the merrier.

Interestingly, it seems that widening the pool of potential tipsters has paid off, with there also being more people who have successfully navigated their way through 17 weeks and have given themselves a shot at winning the prize money.

There are 236 people still standing ahead of the final round of the season, almost double the 121 and 139 remaining tipsters at the same point in time in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

More than half of the competition was eliminated in Round 8 (more on this later), with increasingly small numbers of people being knocked out week-on-week.

It would be really interesting to see the breakdown of how many people tipped each team in Rounds 19 and 23, as these rounds saw over half of the remaining participants eliminated.

I would suspect Essendon’s shock win over Greater Western Sydney would have tripped up more than a few tipsters in Round 19, although it’s less clear what would have caused 337 people to be eliminated in the penultimate round of the competition.

Perhaps this is a statistical artifact (it’s easier to get a larger percentage change when you are working with an increasingly smaller population) – or perhaps these 300-odd individuals were just unlucky with the two remaining teams they could pick from.

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I’ll be honest – as interested as I am in this type of tipping, I’m not very good at it.

In 2023 I made it to Round 13 (less impressive when you realise that the “season” starts in Round 7), and while I don’t have a record of how long I lasted in 2024, it wouldn’t have been much better than my effort in 2023.

This year was even worse. After correctly tipping Melbourne to beat Richmond in Round 7, I was bundled out the following week when the Tigers defeated the West Coast Eagles.

However, I can take comfort from that fact that there were 47,533 other gauntlet tippers who were also tripped up by this result – making it the largest number of people knocked out of this competition from a single game, according to AFL.com.au.

As an aside, I was very excited when I saw the story I linked above appear on the official AFL website earlier this year – I’ve pitched stories like this to AFL staff over the past few years and gotten nowhere.

It also confirms some of the suspicions I’ve had in previous seasons about certain matches that have resulted in large numbers of people being eliminated, such as North Melbourne registering their first win of the season against West Coast in Round 14 2024 (17,292), Hawthorn beating the Western Bulldogs in Round 8 2024 (11,578), and the Eagles upsetting St Kilda in Round 10 last year (8531).

I think it would be incredibly interesting to interview some of the people who make it to the end of the gauntlet tipping season, to find out how much of their achievement was strategy and how much was luck.

Any game that requires you to pick when teams like West Coast, North Melbourne, Richmond, and Essendon (or whatever other teams are struggling during the season in question) has to involve at least a little bit of luck – whether that’s correctly picking an upset against a more favoured team or getting the coin flip between two bad teams right.

Best of luck to anyone still involved in the gauntlet for 2026, and for everyone else, I hope things improve in 2027.

Did you take part in a gauntlet-style tipping competition this year? Let me know how you went in the comments!

The VFL finals kick off this weekend with the two wildcard clashes. Sydney (7^th) hosts Frankston (10^th) in the first wildcard final, while Williamstown (8^th) faces off against Carlton (9^th).

The winners from these matches will progress to the elimination finals. The highest-placed wildcard winner will play Port Melbourne, and the lower-placed victor will play Essendon.

Geelong, Werribee, Box Hill, and Tasmania also have the week off before the “normal” part of the finals begin, with the Cats squaring off against the Devils and the Bees doing battle with the Hawks.

Coburg, Greater Western Sydney, Southport, Footscray, St Kilda, Collingwood, North Melbourne, Brisbane, Casey, Sandringham, Richmond, and the Gold Coast finished outside the top 10 and did not qualify for finals.

The top ten is equally split between reserves/affiliate sides from the AFL and standalone teams (for the purposes of this exercise Tasmania are counted as the latter as they currently do not have a “senior” side playing in the AFL).

Over the course of the season, I’ve been curious about the records of reserve/affiliate and standalone sides if you consider how they have performed in matches against clubs that do and do not fit into the same category as them.

A key driver behind this curiosity has been the uneven nature of the VFL fixture. It’s a strange beast, with 22 teams playing 18 games over 21 rounds. Not every team plays each other once, there are double ups between teams, and multiple byes spread throughout the season.

For example, Carlton’s VFL side played Footscray and St Kilda twice each, didn’t play Frankston, Port Melbourne, Sandringham, Southport, or Sydney, and had a bye in Rounds 1, 12, and 17.

Werribee, on the other hand, played Port Melbourne, Sandringham, and Tasmania twice, didn’t play Box Hill, Casey, GWS, North Melbourne, Richmond, or Sydney, and had byes in Rounds 8, 13, and 18.

And let’s not forget, the mid-season draft gives AFL clubs a one-off opportunity to add state-league players to their lists during the season, which can significantly impact how the sides that lose players perform for the rest of the year. Geelong, Williamstown, and Tasmania all lost two players, while in the SANFL Woodville-West Torrens lost three and North Adelaide two.

Let’s start by considering the games where reserve/affiliate teams play other reserve/affiliate teams. Note that the following tables are sorted by the percentage of games won due to the uneven fixture.

The order is broadly consistent with the overall ladder, which makes sense given all reserve/affiliate sides played more than half of their games against other sides from this level.

Geelong maintains their position at the top of the tree, having won 85.7% of their games against AFL-aligned sides in 2026, while Richmond and the Gold Coast have had challenging years in the second-tier competition, each winning only three games against this group of opposition.

But the side that stands out the most from this particular analysis is GWS, who missed the top 10 despite winning two thirds of their matches against other reserve/affiliate sides this season – including wins against finals sides Box Hill, Essendon, and Carlton. The GWS result is particularly interesting, given how their senior side as struggled with injuries throughout the year.

Two reserve/affiliate sides had perfect records against standalone clubs this season, with Geelong and Box Hill both going four from four. On the flip side of things, Casey and the Gold Coast both went winless against standalone clubs this year (the former going 0-3 and the latter going 0-5).

As we can see, the majority of AFL-aligned clubs won less than half of their games against standalone sides. Carlton’s good form against other reserve/affiliate sides was enough to help it sneak into finals. The Blues lost to Coburg, Werribee, and Williamstown but managed a win against Tasmania – which is more than can be said for Gold Coast, GWS, North, Richmond, and Sydney.

Werribee, Tasmania, and Coburg had the best winning percentage for matches against other standalone teams, although Werribee and Tassie have their noses in front of the Burgers as the Tigers and the Devils drew when the sides met back in Round 7.

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Sandringham struggled in their first season as a standalone club after St Kilda chose to field their own reserves side for 2026, going 2-7-1 against other sides of a similar ilk.

Frankston seem to have done the opposite of GWS this season and have had significantly better results against reserve/affiliate sides (7-1) than against other standalone teams (3-7). However, this should give the Dolphins confidence heading into finals, as the only AFL-aligned side they lost to this year was Geelong the minor premiers.

The debate about how to best structure a reserves competition for AFL sides took another turn during the past week, with the Port Adelaide Magpies announcing they will exit the SANFL after the 2028 season.

“We need to make sure that that program is giving us the best chance to develop our AFL players in the best capacity,” Port Adelaide’s chief executive Matthew Richardson said on SEN over the weekend.

“It is the players you play with. If you look at all the other AFL teams that are operating in other competitions, the quality of the players that they’ve got around their young players is at a very different level of what we are able to do.”

Adelaide, the other South Australian-based AFL team, currently has its own reserves side playing in the SANFL.

Fremantle, who are aligned with Peel Thunder in the WAFL, have previously been reported as objecting to a national reserves competition.

I’m not sure what the best outcome here is. There are financial and logistical challenges associated with having a league featuring only the AFL reserves.

But the VFL is no longer truly the VFL, after its 2020 expansion saw it absorb the NEAFL, which served the ACT, New South Wales, Queensland, and the Northern Territory. Aspley – the other Queensland club that joined the VFL – has since left the league.

Adding the two South Australian clubs would take the league to 24 teams and bring about its own challenges, least of which would be having something that resembles an equitable fixture.

Perhaps a national reserves competition is the way to go – especially if it means historic standalone clubs are allowed to continue to exist in the VFL.

There was much disappointment when Preston was stripped of its VFL licence after the 2025 season, which suggests the AFL are more likely to thrown money at making a national reserves competition than supporting non-AFL-aligned teams.

Certainly a space to watch in the coming years.

Eleven years ago, Damien Hardwick introduced “big-boy month” into the footballing vernacular.

“The month of July is when the big boys step out,” the then Richmond coach said during a press conference ahead of a Friday night clash with Carlton in 2015.

“It’s a make-or-break month, not only for our football club, but most football clubs.

“It’s when the contenders step up and the pretenders step away.

“We’ve had that conversation with our players. It’s big-boy month, so it’s time to come and play.”

However, since Hardwick coined the phrase, his sides have been pretenders as often as they have been contenders when the calendar flips to August.

If you exclude the 2020 covid-affected season (where Rounds 5 to 8 were played in July), the triple premiership coach has had five seasons where he was won at least half of the games played in “big-boy month” (the bare minimum for a pass) and five seasons where they failed to win at least half of their games.

His seven seasons at Richmond (remembering that Dimma resigned in May of 2023, citing burnout and stress) yielded four pass marks, with three of these (2017-2019) coming in seasons where the Tigers finished as premiers, preliminary finalists, and premiers respectively.

There was a significant drop off after that golden run, and Hardwick finished his tenure at Punt Road with 19 wins, 12 losses, and a draw from 32 games in July (a win rate 59.4%).

Things haven’t gotten any better for the triple premiership coach during the seventh month of the year after he headed north on a six-year deal to lead the Gold Coast Suns.

The Carrara-based team finished July 2024 with a 1-3 record before flipping that last year on their way to their first and only finals appearance. But the team who never say die have been in freefall this year, going 0-4 during July amid a nine-game losing streak, their five-time leading goalkicker on the verge of returning home to Victoria, and teammates telling each other to eff off mid-game.

This gives the 2017 AFLCA Coach of the Year four wins and eight losses (win rate of 33.3%) in July during his time in Queensland, and 23 wins, 20 losses, and a draw from 44 games across the length of his coaching career (win rate of 52.3%).

Hardwick is not the only Gold Coast coach to struggle in the month named after the former Roman general Julius Caesar, though.

During the 18-team era no team has won fewer games (19) or has a worse winning percentage (32.8%) than the Suns – a far cry from sides that have dominated the last decade Geelong (43 & 74.1%), Hawthorn (39 & 66.1%), Sydney (36 & 63.2%), and the Brisbane Lions (33 & 56.9%).

In fact, the Gold Coast have only had three seasons where they have won at least half of their games in “big-boy month”: 2016 (three wins from five matches), 2021 (two from four), and 2025 (three from four).

It’s no surprise that these teams, which have won eight of the 13 flags since 2012, step up during the make-or-break month.

All but one of the teams that has lifted the premiership cup at the end of the season during this time frame has won at least two-thirds of their games during “big-boy month”, and 94 of the 104 teams that have played finals have won at least 50% of their games.

Melbourne’s drought-breaking flag in 2021 is the most notable exception to the figures presented above.

The Demons finished that July with one win, two losses, and a draw before winning seven straight games (by an average margin of 48.9 points) to claim their 13th premiership.

The remaining nine teams who have played finals since 2012 despite winning less than half of their games in “big-boy month” of their respective seasons have been less successful: Port Adelaide in 2014 (lost a prelim to Hawthorn by three points), Greater Western Sydney in 2017 (lost a prelim to Richmond by 36 points), Sydney in 2018 (lost an elimination final to the Giants by 49 points), Collingwood in 2019 (lost a prelim to the Tigers by 19 points), Richmond and Fremantle in 2022 (lost an elimination final and a semi-final, respectively), Port Adelaide in 2023 (lost a semi-final to the giants by 23 points), and Carlton and Sydney in 2024 (both lost to Brisbane in their own embarrassing way).

Despite the Suns having another dismal July, there are two possible silver linings for the glitter strip club. The first is that three other teams have also gone winless to this point in July (North Melbourne, West Coast, and Richmond). The second is that two of these three teams (the Eagles and Tigers) have a worse percentage than Dimma’s charges.

At the other end of the spectrum, Collingwood will be looking to make it five from five in “boy-boy month” for 2026 when they host Geelong at the MCG on Thursday in a clash that could have big implications on who ends the season in fifth through to tenth.

The Dockers, Hawks, Swans, and Lions can take some level of comfort knowing that every eventual premier since 2012 has been in the top four after the last full round of games to fall in July, albeit with the Swans having the shakiest “big-boy month” of this quartet.

And although the introduction of the wildcard finals will change things up, 93 of the 104 eventual finalists during this period sat in the top eight after July. Ten of the 11 sides that made finals after not being in a position to play finals after “big-boy” month came from either ninth or tenth (perhaps there’s some merit to playing wildcard finals?), with Richmond in 2012 (who finished 12^th) being the eleventh team.

The data backs up Hardwick’s assertion that July separates the big boys from the little boys. Unfortunately, Dimma’s sides haven’t been able to walk the walk anywhere near as often enough after he talked the talk.

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On Thursday night Geelong’s Jay Polkinghorne became the 331^st V/AFL player on record* (and the 94^th since 2012) to score their first goal with their first kick.

The 20-year-old joins George Horlin-Smith, Shane Kersten, Lachie Fogarty, Esava Ratugolea, Jamaine Jones, Ryan Abbott, Brad Close, and Francis Evans as Geelong players who have achieved this feat since the start of the 2012 season.

The nine Cats in the first kick, first goal club are the most among AFL clubs during this timeframe, tied with Essendon, Geelong, and Richmond. And while every side has at least one member in the club, Brisbane has the fewest (1 – Liam Dawson in Round 8, 2015).

Polkinghorne, the 44^th pick of the 2024 National Draft, kicked his first goal in the 17^th minute of the first quarter.

Shortly after the goal went through, a friend asked how many times the first kick, first goal scenario happened in the first quarter.

Based on data from 2012 onwards, 67 of the 94 instances have happened in the first quarter (71.3%), well ahead of the second (16/94, 17.0%), third (7/94, 7.4%), and fourth (4/94, 4.3%) quarters.

Seeing such a skewed distribution makes sense. The longer the game goes on, the more likely it is that a player has gotten a kick at some other stage in general play – therefore making them ineligible to join the first kick, first goal club.

Fremantle’s Nathan O’Driscoll is the player who joined the first kick, first goal club at the latest point in a game, when he did so in the 19^th minute of the fourth quarter of his debut in Round 2, 2022 against St Kilda. The caveat for O’Driscoll’s claim on this record is that he was the starting substitute and only came on earlier that quarter.

However, we don’t have to go far (in terms of game time) to find a player who registered their first goal with their first kick at such a late stage who wasn’t the substitute.

When Keegan Brooksby debuted for the Gold Coast in Round 9 of the 2015 season, it took more than 17 minutes into the final quarter for the ruckman to get his first kick (and first goal). Unfortunately, the Suns lost to Hawthorn by 53 points down in Launceston, which probably takes some of the shine off Brooksby’s feat.

Cam McCarthy could also stake a claim at the record for the latest entry into the first kick, first goal club during a game. His goal in the 17^th minute of the final quarter in the Round 23 clash between Greater Western Sydney and the Western Bulldogs in 2015 happened in the 113^th minute of the match (Brooksby’s was in the 111^th) – although McCarthy started his first game at senior level wearing the substitute vest.

Polkinghorne added a second goal in the 17^th minute of the final quarter but had other non-scoring kicks in between. As a result, he missed out on joining the multiple goals with first kicks club, leaving James Magner (two), Sam Weideman (two), Judson Clarke, (two), and Samson Ryan (three) as the only quartet of members since 2012.

The former Norwood product’s final scoreline of 2.3 also means he went past Rhys Cooyou, Luke Mitchell, Josh Glenn, Lewis Pierce, Josh Williams, Will Kelly, Archer Day-Wicks, and Charlie West as first kick, first goal players who did not (or have not) kicked another goal in their career.

*Based on this list from Wikipedia, in which I’ve found at least one mistake, so take it with a grain of salt.

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On Thursday night Fremantle furthered their already compelling argument for premiership favouritism after defeating Sydney by 38 points in their top-of-the-table clash at Optus Stadium.

The Dockers didn’t have it all their own way, however.

The home side kicked 0.11 to half time to trail by 22 points at the main break.

But Freo came out firing in the third. Jordan Clark slotted their first goal of the game less than a minute into the quarter.

The two sides went goal-for-goal over the next 10 minutes, before the Dockers kicked the last three of the term to cut Sydney’s lead to two points at the final change.

The arm wrestle continued until the 13^th minute of the last quarter, when Josh Tracey’s third major started a seven-goal run for the men in purple over the next quarter of an hour.

Jake Lloyd got two goals late for the visitors to keep the margin under 40 points, but it wasn’t enough to stop the Swans from being handed their fourth loss of the season.

After the match one of my friends asked me to look into the largest winning margins for teams that have spent the shortest amount of time in front.

Fremantle led for less than 24 minutes on Thursday night, while the Swans held a lead for more than 101 minutes – over four times as long as Freo were in front.

As the game went for 122 minutes and 34 seconds, this means Sydney were in front for 80.6% of the time. The Dockers were in front for 18.9%, and scores were level for the remaining 0.5% (the first 30 odd seconds before the Swans opened the scoring with a rushed behind).

Between the start of the 2012 season and Wednesday night, there had been 109 games where a team lost despite leading for at least 80% of game time.

Thursday night was the 110^th.

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It was also the eighth time the Dockers had won despite leading for less than 20% of the game, and the fifth time the Swans had lost after leading for 80% or more.

However, the 38-point win is only the second highest margin for a team that were in front for less than 20% of game time.

The lone match ahead of it?

Sydney’s 41-point win over Hawthorn in Round 6, 2022.

That game, which was played on ANZAC Day in Launceston, saw the Hawks burst out of the blocks with five goals in the first 17 minutes to lead 32-0.

The Swans eventually got themselves going, with goals to Callum Mills, Lance Franklin, and Errol Gulden cutting the lead to 14 points at quarter time.

Each team kicked two goals in the second before Sydney reduced Hawthorn’s lead to single figures at the final change after kicking three goals to two in the third quarter.

What John Longmire’s side did to Sam Mitchell’s in the fourth quarter on that Monday afternoon was similar to what Justin Longmuir’s did to Longmire’s successor, Dean Cox’s, side last week.

The visitors kicked nine goals to one, with Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Franklin (two), Ollie Florent, Ben Ronke (two), Justin McInerny, and Will Hayward hitting the scoreboard.

Some other stats of note from Thursday night:

• Fremantle had their third goalless first half in club history

• Fremantle new records for the lowest half time score by a side that kicked 100+ points in the second half and the highest final score for a side that was goalless at half time

• Fremantle are now the only side to kick zero, zero, six, and five goals across the first, second, third, and fourth quarter respectively

• Fremantle became the 100^th team to kick 9.5 in a quarter of football

• The Dockers kept their quest to complete the bird gauntlet (for the first time in club history) alive

• Jake Lloyd joined Jude Bolton and Will Hayward in the top three for the latest point in a game where a player who finished with multiple goals kicked their first goal

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Fremantle have taken the 2026 AFL season by storm, currently sitting two games clear on the top of the ladder while also amid a club-record 14 game winning streak.

The Dockers have not tasted defeat since Geelong beat them by 10 points at GMHBA Stadium in Round 1 – and even that match was winnable given they led the Cats by 10 points at the final change.

Justin Longmuir’s side will look to make it 15 wins on the trot when they face Greater Western Sydney in Canberra on Saturday afternoon.

After the Giants, Fremantle play Sydney (at Optus Stadium), Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval), West Coast (Optus Stadium), the Western Bulldogs (Optus Stadium), Melbourne (MCG), and Adelaide (Optus Stadium).

Former Essendon great Matthew Lloyd believes the Dockers can continue their winning ways until at least Round 23, when they host the Crows, meaning the men in purple would surpass the Bombers’ all-time record for most consecutive wins in a season (20 in 2000).

“I think they are capable of doing it. They are dog hungry, and they are not relenting,” Lloyd told AFL.com.au‘s Access on Monday morning.

“No-one seems to be getting close to them, and if a team does, they’ll just put the foot down and they’ll get a hold of them anyway. I think they are fully capable.

“They have the Sydney Swans in two weeks, but on what I saw of the Swans on the weekend, Fremantle’s depth looks far too good and I don’t see where their next loss is coming from.”

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But before we get too caught up in the purple wave of momentum that is Warfie Time, a win over the orange team this weekend would give Fremantle another record involving a streak of 15 games.

The Dockers currently hold the record for the most consecutive games of alternating wins and losses, with 15.

The record streak started with a 35-point loss to Melbourne in Round 21 2001, ended with a 77-point loss to Sydney in Round 13 the following season, and was bookended by a 51-point loss to the Brisbane Lions and an 84-point loss to Port Adelaide.

Interestingly, the Giants have the longest streak of alternating results this season (eight games), with this streak starting in Round 3 against Collingwood (33-point loss) and ending in Round 11 against Brisbane (78-point win). This is also GWS’ longest streak of all time.

All 18 teams have had a run of at least seven games where they alternate between winning and losing. Impressively, four teams have had multiple instances of their longest streak occurring – North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Sydney, and the Western Bulldogs.

Freo supporters will be hoping their side sticks to the tried-and-true “one week at a time” mentality as they continue their push for a maiden flag.

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Each team’s longest streak of alternating wins and losses:

• Adelaide – 10 games (Round 20 2008 to Round 6 2006)

• Brisbane Lions – 12 games (Round 8 to Round 19 2000)

• Carlton – 12 games (Round 21 2000 to Round 7 2001)

• Collingwood – 11 games (Round 10 to Round 20 2007)

• Essendon – 9 games (Round 17 1939 to Round 7 1940)

• Fremantle – 15 games (Round 21 2001 to Round 13 2002)

• Geelong – 14 games (Round 12 to Preliminary Final 2019)

• Gold Coast – 7 games (Round 19 2012 to Round 2 2013)

• Greater Western Sydney – 8 games (Round 3 to Round 11 2026)

• Hawthorn – 10 games (Round 11 to Round 20 2000)

• Melbourne – 10 games (Round 3 to Round 12 1972)

• North Melbourne – 7 games* (Round 14 to Round 20 2021)

• Port Adelaide – 9 games** (Round 8 to Round 16 2019)

• Richmond – 11 games (Round 9 to Round 19 1983)

• St Kilda – 14 games (Round 3 to Round 16 1969)

• Sydney – 9 games** (Round 17 1947 to Round 6 1948)

• West Coast – 12 games** (Round 11 to Round 23 2017)

• Western Bulldogs – 8 games**** (Round 2 to Round 9 2022)

*On 11 separate occasions. Most recent occasion listed.

**On two separate occasions. Most recent occasion listed.

***On four separate occasions. Most recent occasion listed.

Love useless AFL stats? Then check out Useless Footy Stats, now available for pre-order at multiple outlets.

Or if you love trying to predict who will win the Brownlow Medal, check out this piece I wrote for Zero Hanger where I try and pick this year’s winner using the statistics that umpires will have access to.

For anyone not familiar with the term, the bird gauntlet is a concept that came from the NFL and occurs when a team plays and defeats the five teams that have a bird for their mascot (Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, and Seattle Seahawks) during a single season.

As there are also five teams with birds for mascots in the AFL (Crows, Magpies, Hawks, Swans, and Eagles), we can apply the same idea to Australian rules football and track whether a non-bird team goes undefeated against these five teams across the home and away season and finals (as the team must win all matches against bird teams to successfully complete the gauntlet).

Since 1991, when Kuwarna joined the league, seven teams have completed the bird gauntlet: Richmond (1995), Essendon (2000, 2001), Geelong (2009, 2025), St Kilda (2009), and Port Adelaide (2020). The Bombers and Cats doubled up, successfully running the gauntlet and winning the premiership in 2000 and 2009, respectively.

Seven teams (Brisbane, Carlton, Essendon, Euro-Yroke, Naarm, North Melbourne, and Yartapuulti) tasted defeat in their first encounter against a bird opponent in 2026, one fewer than last season.

The largest number of teams who fell at the first hurdle occurred in 2012, when 11 of the 13 teams – all bar Carlton and Geelong – went one-and-done. The Blues and the Cats ultimately didn’t do much better, losing their next gauntlet fixtures. 2012 was a great year for bird lovers and a terrible year for ornithophobes, as the bird teams finished first through fifth on the ladder and accounted for all four preliminary finalists as the Swans knocked off the Hawks on Grand Final day.

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Coming into Round 9 of the current AFL season, only two teams – Walyalup and Richmond – remained in contention. As luck would have it, both sides were due to face avian opposition, meaning the gauntlet could have been done for another year if results fell a particular way.

The Dockers came home strong in their clash against Hawthorn, kicking the last five goals of the match to turn a 17-point deficit into a 15-point win, while the Tigers were competitive in the first half against Kuwarna but were ultimately outclassed (and eliminated from the bird gauntlet).

Last Thursday night’s win was Walyalup’s fourth win as part of a bird gauntlet, following wins against Kuwarna in Round 4, Collingwood in Round 5, and Waalitj Marawar in Round 6.

It matches their best performance in bird gauntlet history, after the purple haze defeated the Eagles, Swans, Crows, and Magpies across the first 13 rounds of the 2015 season before falling to the Hawks in Round 15.

The Dockers have historically struggled in the bird gauntlet, falling at the first hurdle in 13 of their first 15 attempts and 19 of 32 since joining the league in 1995. This year is just the sixth time that Walyalup have gotten past multiple opponents. Their Western Australian rivals Waalitj Marawar have ended Walyalup’s run in seven of the ten seasons prior to 2026.

Walyalup have almost two months before facing their next challenge in the bird gauntlet, hosting the Swans in a Thursday night clash in Perth to kick things off in Round 18. The remaining two fixtures in the regular season will also be played at Optus, with the second Western Derby of the year in slated for the Friday night in Round 20 before the Crows make the trip west in Round 23 (date and time TBC).

Can the Dockers keep up their winning ways and complete the bird gauntlet for the first time in club history?

Sydney’s VFL side knocked over the Casey Demons (Melbourne’s VFL affiliate) by 17 points in early on Sunday afternoon at Tramway Oval, before the AFL side outlasted a competitive Melbourne outfit by the same margin later that day.

Although there have been 183 instances of a pair of teams playing across the two tiers of competition on the same day since 2021, and 92 instances of one club winning both encounters, a side had never won both matches on the same day by the same margin.

Sunday was the 12th time Sydney had beaten the same team in the AFL and VFL on the same day after joining the league in 2021 (the most of any club), and the first time they had beaten Melbourne/Casey. Their other 11 same-day triumphs came against Greater Western Sydney (four times), Collingwood (twice), North Melbourne (twice), Essendon, Richmond, and St Kilda/Sandringham (back in June 2022 when the two sides were aligned).

The figure below provides a breakdown of the number of times each team has played against the remaining teams on the same day across both levels of football, and the number of times they won both games. For example, Carlton and Essendon have met in the VFL and the AFL on three occasions since the start of 2021, with Carlton winning both games once and Essendon failing to beat Carlton in both games on the remaining two occasions (i.e., the two teams won one game each).

There are several interesting takeaways from this figure, with some of these due to the differences between the AFL and the VFL, SANFL, and WAFL.

For example, Sydney, GWS, Brisbane, and the Gold Coast joined the VFL after the NEAFL was wound up following the covid-affected 2020 season. The addition of these clubs mean that all 14 clubs on the eastern seaboard are represented across both the VFL and the AFL by either a reserves or affiliate team.

However, as of 2026 there are 22 different teams playing in the VFL after you consider the eight standalone clubs: Coburg, Frankston, Port Melbourne, Sandringham, Southport, Tasmania, Werribee, and Williamstown. Prior to this season Sandringham had served as St Kilda’s VFL affiliate but are now out on their own after the Saints elected to field their own side at the end of last season. The data above accounts for how the relationship between the two sides has changed over time.

The VFL fixture has long been a strange beast, with no guarantee that it would match the AFL fixture, and the changes to the league in recent years have only made things more complicated. There has been an ongoing discussion around whether there needs to be a national reserves competition, with certain non-Victorian clubs holding strong yet opposing views about this possibility. There are certainly logistical issues about bringing all 18 teams together in one competition, but that’s a discussion for another day.

Outside of the VFL, the SANFL has fixtured Adelaide and Port Adelaide to play on the same day as the Showdowns in the AFL between 2021 and now – but the WAFL is the opposite, with West Coast and Peel Thunder (Fremantle’s state league affiliate) yet to play on the same day as the AFL Western Derby (and are not slated to given the remaining available fixtures for the 2026 season).

As a result, the two Western Australian sides do not feature on the figure above, and the two South Australian sides have played the next fewest games against the same opponent on the same day in the state league and national competitions. This is completely understandable, as there is only one possible opponent for these two clubs, unlike the sides playing in the VFL and AFL.

But back to the figure.

The Crows have dominated the Power in Showdowns on both the SANFL and AFL stage over the past five years, winning both games on six of the nine occasions. Port Adelaide’s lone Showdown sweep happened in 2022, beating their crosstown rivals by three points in the SANFL (Round 19) and 56 points in the AFL (Round 23) on August 20.

Only one side has played more games against the same club in the state league and the AFL on the same day as Sydney – North Melbourne, with 34 – but the Kangaroos have been far less successful than the Swans, winning both matches on just three occasions (Carlton twice and Richmond once).

The Kangaroos are the only side from the VFL/AFL to play all other 13 clubs on the same day across both leagues, with the Swans and the Bulldogs missing just one team to complete the set (Gold Coast for the former, and Carlton for the latter).

The VFL had a league-wide bye when Swans played the Suns in Gather Round for the AFL, and the two sides are not slated to meet again during the AFL home and away season. But the Bulldogs will play Carlton next weekend in both competitions, becoming the second team to face off against the remaining 13 teams on the same day in both the VFL and AFL.

Essendon have doubled up against the fewest number of clubs, playing only eight of the 13. And Bombers fans shouldn’t be complaining about this, having won just three of their 21 double up scenarios since 2021 (twice against North Melbourne, and once against Sydney).

I’ll be keeping a close eye on these same-day matchups for the rest of the season, but let me know if you notice any interesting occurrences when the state leagues and the AFL align!

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Last Sunday afternoon’s clash between Greater Western Sydney and North Melbourne featured heavily in the AFL media cycle in the days after the game due to a controversial video review in the final quarter.

With the Giants leading by 12 points midway through the last, the ARC deemed that Xavier O’Hallaran’s shot at goal had not been touched and would remain a goal, despite replays suggesting Kangaroos defender Griffin Logue got a finger on the ball before it crossed the line.

To their credit, the Kangaroos kicked three of the next four goals to get within seven points to get back within seven points but ultimately fell short, meaning they would make the trip back from the nation’s capital empty handed.

One thing that seems to have been overshadowed by the officiating kerfuffle is the final margin. GWS’ seven-point victory over North Melbourne was the first time two teams were separated by that margin in 2026 – completing the set of margins from one point to 10 points this season.

This marks the 61^st year since 1896 – and the 11^th consecutive year – that this group of 11 unique margins has occurred over the course of a season. The last time this did not occur was 2015, when no game was decided by a single point (however, there were two draws [Gold Coast v West Coast in Round 18 and St Kilda v Geelong in Round 21] and four games with a two-point margin).

There have been two other seasons this century that didn’t complete this set (2012 and 2013). Having margins that hit every step from one to 10 points has occurred more consistently since the early 1990s.

Sunday afternoon’s game was the 63^rd of the season, making 2026 the fifth-quickest year to record all margins from one to 10. The quickest is 50 games, which happened way back in 1901.

But it’s important to point out that 1901 only had 71 games for the whole season, so perhaps looking at the time taken as a proportion of all games would be more appropriate.

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If we consider things proportionally, 2026 sets a record for the fewest games taken to complete the set, happening slightly faster than the 77 games it took in 2025.

Here’s a list of the first time each margin from one to 10 points has occurred in 2026:

• 1 point: Hawthorn v Geelong, R4

• 2 points: West Coast v Port Adelaide, R3

• 3 points: Hawthorn v Port Adelaide, R6

• 4 points: Carlton v Richmond, R1

• 5 points: Western Bulldogs v Brisbane Lions, R0

• 6 points: Western Bulldogs v Adelaide, R2

• 7 points: Greater Western Sydney v North Melbourne, R7

• 8 points: Geelong v Adelaide, R3

• 9 points: Gold Coast v Essendon, R6

• 10 points: Geelong v Fremantle, R2

I’ll be keeping my eyes peeled for two things during the rest of the season. First, whether a draw occurs (which will complete the ten single-digit margins for another year), and second, the longest streak of consecutive margins recorded over the course of the season (2025 saw every margin between one and 40 points occur).

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Last week Collingwood superstar Nick Daicos was a very late withdrawal from the match against Brisbane. Daicos copped a corkie to the calf at training during the week and failed to complete the warm-up ahead of the Good Friday eve clash at the Gabba.

He was replaced in the side by Ed Allen, and the Lions went on to record a 54-point win on the back of 36 disposals and six clearances to Will Ashcroft, 28 disposals and 631 meters gained to Dayne Zorko, and 10 goals between Kai Lohmann, Logan Morris, and Oscar Allen.

Losing the three-time All-Australian certainly didn’t help a Magpies side that was already without skipper Darcy Moore and veteran Scott Pendlebury, but coach Craig McRae insisted that the outcome ultimately wouldn’t have changed if Daicos had been able to play.

“You’d hope it doesn’t [make a difference] because things that happen before the game shouldn’t really affect the first contest or our stoppage structure. They shouldn’t,” he said in his post-match press conference.

“I know you could make the case you take your best player out of any team it’s probably going to disrupt, but you’d like to think not. Honestly, I felt like we got outplayed most of the night.”

And while I agree with McRae’s position, I couldn’t help but wonder what sort of impact late changes have on a side’s performance.

To explore this question, I wrote some code to review match reports from the AFL website and extract any information relating to late changes. These match reports follow a similar structure each time and have included a specific “late changes” subheading since 2023, which helped to automate the process. Scraped data were reviewed to remove duplicates and to ensure changes had been assigned to the correct club¹.

Based on the available data, there have been 130 matches between the start of the 2023 season and the end of Round 4, 2026 that have featured at least one late change. Eight of these matches saw both teams make a late change.

Geelong has made more late changes than any other side during this period (19), with Essendon (14) and West Coast (10) the only other clubs to reach double figures. At the other end of things, Richmond has made the fewest late changes (four).

Consistent with Collingwood’s result last week, teams that make a late change have lost more matches (76, average margin 31.5 points) than they have won (63, average margin 40.7).

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Magpie fans can potentially take comfort from the fact that last week was only the second time their side has tasted defeat when making a late change (the equal lowest in the league during this time period), with the other being Round 13 2023 when they went down to Melbourne by four points after Jack Ginnivan (managed) was replaced by Reef McInnes.

North Melbourne and West Coast have had insult added to (late) injuries, going winless from a combined 15 matches where they made a change to their side between naming the 23 and lining up to play.

Obviously not all changes are equal. Taking Nick Daicos out of a side is going to potentially impact a team and a result to a different extent than taking Billy Frampton or Daniel McStay out is. It also depends on the player who is coming into the side.

There are very few repeat offenders with respect to the players removed as part of a late change. Eleven of the 18 clubs have had players be subjected to repeat late changes, with Geelong’s Bailey Smith and Tom Stewart being pulled after being named on three separate occasions.

(For the record, the Cats have a 4-2 record when Smith or Stewart are a late change.)

When has your team struggled or benefitted from a late change? Let me know in the comments!

The full list of players who have not played because of a late change between 2023 and Round 4 2026 can be found below.

Adelaide Crows

• One late change: Brodie Smith, Hugh Bond, Ned McHenry, Patrick Parnell, Taylor Walker, Wayne Milera

• Two late changes: Nil

• Three late changes: Nil

Brisbane Lions

• One late change: Brandon Starcevich, Charlie Cameron, Darcy Gardiner, Eric Hipwood, Jack Payne

• Two late changes: Oscar McInerney

• Three late changes: Nil

Carlton

• One late change: Adam Cerra, Blake Acres, Jack Martin, Mitch McGovern, Orazio Fantasia

• Two late changes: Harry McKay, Tom De Koning

• Three late changes: Nil

Collingwood

• One late change: Bobby Hill, Darcy Cameron, Jack Ginnivan, Jordan De Goey, Lachie Sullivan, Nick Daicos, Scott Pendlebury

• Two late changes: Nil

• Three late changes: Nil

Essendon

• One late change: Alwyn Davey jnr, Andrew Phillips, Darcy Parish, Jake Kelly, Jason Laverde, Sam Durham, Jye Menzie, Sam Weideman, Will Setterfield

• Two late changes: Dylan Shiel, Todd Goldstein, Will Snelling

• Three late changes: Nil

Fremantle

• One late change: Brandon Walker, Jaeger O’Meara, Corey Wagner, Michael Frederick, Nat Fyfe, Sean Darcy

• Two late changes: Heath Chapman

• Three late changes: Nil

GWS GIANTS

• One late change: Conor Stone, Brent Daniels, Toby Bedford, Jesse Hogan, Toby McMullin

• Two late changes: Daniel Lloyd, Stephen Coniglio

• Three late changes: Nil

Geelong Cats

• One late change: Jack Martin, Mark Blicavs, Oisin Mullin, Sam De Koning, Tom Atkins, Shannon Neale, Tom Hawkins

• Two late changes: Gary Rohan, Jon Ceglar, Mitch Knevitt

• Three late changes: Bailey Smith, Tom Stewart

Gold Coast SUNS

• One late change: Bailey Humphrey, Ethan Read, Jarrod Witts, Lloyd Johnston, Sam Flanders

• Two late changes: Nil

• Three late changes: Nil

Hawthorn

• One late change: Changkuoth Jiath, Jai Newman, Jarman Impey, Mitch Lewis, Ned Reeves, Seamus Mitchell

• Two late changes: Nil

• Three late changes: Nil

Melbourne

• One late change: Daniel Turner, Jake Lever, Taj Woewodin

• Two late changes: Jake Bowie, Steven May

• Three late changes: Nil

North Melbourne

• One late change: George Wardlaw, Jy Simpkin, Miller Bergman

• Two late changes: Luke Davies-Uniacke

• Three late changes: Nil

Port Adelaide

• One late change Charlie Dixon, Dante Visentini, Jeremy Finlayson, Miles Bergman, Joe Richards, Josh Sinn, Scott Lycett, Kane Farrell, Lachie Jones

• Two late changes: Willie Rioli

• Three late changes: Nil

Richmond

• One late change: Dustin Martin, Dylan Grimes, Jayden Short, Luke Trainor

• Two late changes: Nil

• Three late changes: Nil

St Kilda

• One late change: Angus Hastie, Cooper Sharman, Seb Ross

• Two late changes: Matteas Phillipou, Ryan Byrnes

• Three late changes: Nil

Sydney Swans

• One late change: Isaac Heeney, Malcom Rosas jnr, Sam Wicks, Tom McCartin, Tom Papley, Will Hayward

• Two late changes: Nil

• Three late changes: Nil

West Coast Eagles

• One late change: Jack Petruccelle, Brady Hough, Jake Waterman, Liam Ryan, Oscar Allen, Ryan Maric, Tim Kelly, Luke Edwards

• Two late changes: Tom Barrass

• Three late changes: Nil

Western Bulldogs

• One late change: Adam Treloar, Ed Richards, James O’Donnell, Ryley Sanders, Tom Liberatore

• Two late changes: Nil

• Three late changes: Nil

¹If you notice any errors in the data I am working with, please let me know so I can make the necessary corrections.

Hawthorn has announced that Jack Dalton will make his AFL debut on Easter Monday against Geelong.

The decision to play Dalton, taken at pick 34 in the 2025 National Draft, at the highest level marks the end of a 44-game streak of not playing a debutant.

This is a new record for the longest time between debutants, surpassing the 33 games played by North Melbourne between the debuts of Trent Dumont (round 4, 2015) and Corey Wagner (round 13, 2016).

Much was made of the Hawks not giving a player their AFL debut throughout the 2025 season, given it was the first time in V/AFL history where a team had not rolled out a first gamer at some point during the year.

Think of the poor social media team who didn’t get the opportunity to do the feel-good videos where the debutant calls their family and tells them they are playing for the first time.

(Although I feel it’s worth noting that Adelaide only had one debutant for 2025, Sid Draper, so perhaps the Hawks and the Crows were focusing more on using experience at AFL level, and giving their younger players more time to develop in the reserves?)

(And to Hawthorn’s credit, they informed Dalton that he was debuting on his birthday, which is enough to give even a non-Hawks fan a warm and fuzzy feeling.)

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But the 44-game streak means Hawthorn’s form in this area goes beyond just the 2025 season.

In fact, it stretches back to the first half of the season before that. The last player to run out for their first ever AFL game in the brown and gold prior to Dalton was Ethan Phillips, back in Round 10, 2024.

Phillips, who had been added to Hawthorn’s rookie list during the pre-season supplemental selection period after an untimely ACL injury to James Blanck, started the year in the VFL before getting his opportunity on the big stage against Port Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval.

He had 10 disposals, four contested possessions, three marks, and a tackle from 87% game time, but missed out on the traditional Gatorade shower after Willie Rioli and Darcy Byrne-Jones both goaled in the final two minutes of the match to turn a 28-point three-quarter time deficit into a one-point victory.

The 2022 Fothergill–Round–Mitchell Medallist did not appear again at AFL level and was delisted at the end of the season. He subsequently signed with Carlton’s VFL side, where he won the Best and Fairest in 2025.

One hundred and thirty-six players have made their AFL debut between Phillips in 2024 and and Dalton in 2026, with 17 coming from Essendon.

Here’s hoping that Dalton has a more successful AFL career than Phillips, given that the Hawks traded up with West Coast to select the Sandringham product in the second round.

The 19-year-old midfielder performed strongly in his first VFL game for Box Hill, collecting 27 disposals, seven marks, six tackles, two clearances, and a goal as the Hawks beat the Swans by six goals in Round 1.

But Dalton, like many of his teammates, was quieter the following week against Geelong, limited to nine disposals and four tackles as the Cats won by 47 points.

The mantle for the longest streak of games without playing a debutant now rests with Adelaide (27 games), with Fremantle (24) also not far behind. The Crows latest debutant was Sid Draper, back in Round 1 2025.

Earlier this week I was listening to Ben Cameron and Daniel Harford chat about the Western Bulldogs’ Round 2 win over Adelaide on the ABC AFL Daily podcast when something caught my attention.

“It’s hard to deny that [the Bulldogs] have changed,” said Harford. “And it’s the way they’re playing.”

“The conversation all last year was ‘you couldn’t beat any of the top eight teams’, but it [should have been about] how they were getting beaten. They couldn’t defend the transition of opposition teams.

“Now they’ve got a whole new setup behind the ball and their pressure around the contest is as good, if not better, than it was last year. So any ball coming through is more often than not coming through [as a] dirty ball, making it easy to defend in the new setup and structure that they’re holding behind the ball.

“It’s really quite fixed. If you watch it from high above or get to watch [the] behind the goals vision, you’ll see exactly what I’m talking about when you watch the Bulldogs play. And it’s created enormous stability and predictability for all players – not only behind the ball, but at the contest or forward of the ball as well.”

A key part of the Bulldogs’ defensive change, according to the former Hawthorn and Carlton player, has been an increased focus on getting the ball to ground.

“They must have been practicing their spoiling in the off season,” Harford continued. “Anything from behind centre, certainly from behind centre half back, [the plan is] kill the ball, get it to ground, and let our smalls go to work, because they’re so good when it gets to ground level.”

The Bulldogs have registered 35, 27, and 45 in their three games this season, which equates to an average of 36.67 spoils per game. Although it’s only early days, this is a 24.7% increase on the 28.60 spoils they averaged in 2025.

Twenty-seven of the 45 spoils against the Crows came in the Bulldogs’ defensive half of the ground, with 16 in the defensive 50 and the remaining 11 beyond the 50-metre arc.

As Harford alluded to, there were instances where the Bulldogs’ ability to bring the ball to ground allowed them to spark a defensive transition.

For example, partway through the second quarter Lachie Jaques got a fist on Alex Neale Bullen’s high inside 50 entry. Adelaide gained possession when the ball hit the deck, but Luke Beveridge’s side were able to get the ball back. Michael Sellwood eventually cleared the ball from the defensive 50, with the 22-year-olds kick finding its way into the hands of Oskar Baker.

Baker released a handball to young Bulldog Sam Davidson, who collected possession on centre wing, streamed inside 50 while taking three bounces, and pulled his shot on goal to the left for a behind.

Not the desired result, but it speaks to the point Harford was making. Bring the ball to ground, regain possession, and use their speed and skill to rebound and make opponents pay.

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The defensive spoils of the Bulldogs also provided several opportunities for the side to reset themselves and get more organised on the field. By my count, 15 of the 27 spoils in the defensive half resulted in a throw in immediately afterwards, giving the men in red, white, and blue the chance to slow things down and structure their defence in the desired fashion.

This worked well early in the first quarter, where a spoil from Buku Khamis in defensive 50 led to a throw in. The Bulldogs were able to clear the ball from the subsequent stoppage, but it ultimately came straight back in after Jordan Butts was awarded a 50-metre penalty. Butts would go on to kick his first career goal as a result.

Similarly, a spoil from James O’Donnell (in response to an entry from James Peatling) in the early stages of the second quarter gave the visitors a chance to reset with a boundary throw in. Both teams turned the ball over at least once after the play restarted before Riley Thilthorpe clunked one in the goal square and duly converted.

Another less opportune result came in the third quarter, after Khamis executed a brilliant diving spoil to stop a kick targeting Callum Ah Chee. Thilthorpe took the ball out of the ruck and combined with Ben Keays and Jake Soligo to get the ball to a running Darcy Fogarty, who slotted his second of the night.

Each of these examples ultimately resulted in the Bulldogs conceding a goal. But forcing a stoppage allowed them to reset and try to stop the Crows from a (potentially) more level playing field, rather than being outnumbered in open play.

It wasn’t all bad though, as taking the opportunity to reset paid off later in the third quarter. With a little more than five minutes to play Adelaide ruck Lachlan McAndrew’s kick inside 50 was spoiled by his opponent for most of the night, Tim English.

Bailey Dale was pushed in the back moments after English made contact with the ball, giving the Bulldogs a free kick. The Bulldogs slowly picked their way down the field, with short five short kick-marks to get to the outer wing. The ball was then sent long inside 50, where the dangerous Sam Darcy was awarded a free kick for being held. He coolly converted the 50-metre kick to extend the lead to 19 points.

I’m curious to see if and how the Bulldogs’ use of the spoil changes over the coming weeks, as coaches inevitably make tweaks to their gameplan and we slide into winter. Perhaps teams playing the Bulldogs will use more of a run- and handball-first approach, like we have seen from several teams in the early weeks of the 2026 season, which would limit their ability to kill the ball in this particular fashion. Perhaps not.

Regardless, Luke Beveridge seems to have addressed some of the issues that plagued his side in 2025. The Bulldogs look more settled defensively and have beaten three teams that finished in the top eight last year.

Let’s see if they can keep things rolling as they look to bring the premiership cup back to the Western suburbs of Melbourne.

The Bulldogs’ AFL side has a bye in Round 3 before hosting Essendon at Marvel Stadium on Easter Sunday in Round 4.

Want more insights into how the Bulldogs have changed their defensive structure in 2026? Check out this great analysis from Mateo over at One Percenters, or this discussion from the man with the laptop, David King.

We’re only one and a half rounds into the 2026 AFL season but certain parts of the mainstream media have already started coming out strongly with opinions on teams that have played once or twice.

One thing I’ve noticed, and have seen be spoken and written about a over the past 10 days, has been Collingwood’s struggles in the forward half of the ground. There are two separate-but-related threads to these conversations: the forwards on their list and how the team generates scores.

If you’ve been living under a rock since last October, the Magpies traded Brody Mihocek (267 goals from 159 games, including 36 from 22 in 2025) to Melbourne and delisted Mason Cox (127 goals from 139 games, with 4 from 10 last year), with the big American later joining Fremantle as a delisted free agent.

Ash Johnson (36 goals from 27 games) was also delisted following the 2025 season but had not played senior football since Round 12 2024.

In addition, small forward Bobby Hill (117 goals from 102 games, 20 from 14 in 2025) has spent significant time away from the club since the middle of last year and is yet to rejoin his teammates after taking a leave of absence in January.

On the flip side, Collingwood traded for 24-year-old Jack Buller, who had 11 goals to his name after 10 games with Sydney between 2023 and 2025, picked up four players in the National Draft (Tyan Prindible, Sam Swadling, Zac McCarthy, and Angus Anderson), and signed Jai Saxena as a category A rookie.

Mateo Szlapek-Sewillo, the brains behind One Percenters, had this to say about the Pies ahead of the 2026 season:

“The secret ingredient of Geelong’s golden era is aggressive talent churn: identifying early which young players will not make it in their system, moving them on, and repeatedly buying lottery tickets at the margins. The Pies are beginning to do the same. This off-season reflects that shift. Prindable, Swadling, and Anderson are shells that could become pearls. Jack Buller is a functional replacement for Mihocek. McCarthy and Saxena are longer-term forward plays. None are sure things. All are attempts to find growth without sacrificing competitiveness.”

From the outside – and the very limited sample size of 2026 performances to date – it seems like the men in black and white will rely on Daniel McStay (30 years old, 186 goals from 200 games), Tim Membrey (31, 326 from 204), and Buller to be the big targets up forward, with support from Jamie Elliott, Lachie Schultz, and Beau McCreery (as well as Hill, if he returns to football and the senior side) in the first instance.

Jordan De Goey, Nick Daicos, Steele Sidebottom, Patrick Lipinski, Jack Crisp, and Darcy Cameron will also be expected to contribute the odd goal or two over the course of the season.

But back to the point of this piece: Collingwood haven’t done a lot of damage on the scoreboard in their first two games of the season. Craig McRae’s side scored 78 points in their two-goal win over St Kilda in Opening Round, before putting up 79 points in a 14-point loss to Adelaide in Round 1.

It’s important to note that this isn’t a huge dip on the types of scores Collingwood had in 2025, when they averaged 85.6 points across 25 matches. And while the Magpies reached triple figures on eight occasions last season, the only time they did this in their first four matches was their 91-point drubbing of Port Adelaide in Round 1.

So perhaps Collingwood just needs some time for their offense to click before the higher scores start flowing.

On the other hand, the Pies overperformed in these two matches compared to the expected score (xScore), according to Wheelo Ratings. They were the third highest xScore differential among teams that played in Opening Round (16.6, after scoring 78 points instead of the expected 61.4), while they scored 79 from an expected score of 76 against the Crows.

Their average score of 78.5 points is the second lowest of the ten teams that had played two games coming into Round 2, ahead of only Carlton (72.0) and behind the much higher scoring Gold Coast (128.0), the Western Bulldogs (122.5), and Hawthorn (120.0).

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“I felt like we were pretty average tonight,” McRae said in his press conference following the loss to Adelaide. “I felt like parts of the game got away from us.”

“It’s an interesting time. It’s Round 1, but we’ve played two games, so it’s a bit weird. We’re sort of getting a feel for the things that you’re doing well and not doing so well.

“Last week gave us a bit of a taste of some things that we need to improve. Clearly inside 50s was one of those. Tonight we won that battle but then we weren’t as efficient, so then it creates another opportunity to improve.

“[But] we’re not getting much out of our keys… I’m not going to shy away from that”

The Saints had 23 more inside 50s than Collingwood in Opening Round (63-40), but the Pies slightly outperformed Adelaide on that metric in their second game of the season (59-55).

And as McRae alluded to, Collingwood’s efficiency inside 50 was poor (44.1%) and they finished with just 10 marks inside their forward arc for the second week running. This again puts the Magpies in the bottom two among teams to play twice. Carlton sits last, averaging six marks inside 50 per game, while Hawthorn (16.0), Sydney (15.0), and the Western Bulldogs (14.5) are out in front.

Adding to this, Collingwood kicked four goals in the second quarter against Adelaide, but none came from set shots. Tall forwards Dan McStay, Tim Membrey, and Jack Buller have kicked two goals between them in as many matches.

Things don’t seem to be working the way they should be.

Speaking on Triple M’s Midweek Rub on Wednesday, Dale Thomas disagreed with the suggestion that Collingwood should have kept one of Mihocek or Cox in response to the limited offensive output from his former side.

“I think [Collingwood] are going to try and play that game that isn’t getting completely blown away. And the longer the season goes historically scoring comes down, so maybe they’re already there… but they need to find more avenues to goal.”

This (to an extent) lines up with some of the data I presented earlier. Collingwood aren’t going to come out and blow teams off the park every week. Their scores of 100 or more came against Port Adelaide, Sydney, Brisbane, Essendon, North Melbourne, Hawthorn, St Kilda, and Carlton – a mix of contenders and pretenders.

But the good news is that finding other avenues to goal is something Collingwood have been able to do – to an extent – over the last few seasons.

If you consider the proportion of goals scored by key forwards for each club between 2023 (when Collingwood won the flag) and Round 1, 2026, the Magpies sit second last (24.1%), ahead of only Richmond (19.2%).

Key forwards at the West Coast Eagles have scored the greatest proportion of their teams’ goals, with 43.7% over this period. In contrast, Collingwood has gotten more goals out of its medium forwards (37.2%, fifth best in the league) and midfielders (21.4%, third best).

The Magpies were ranked 14^th on this metric in their Premiership season, last in 2024 when they finished ninth, 11^th in 2025 when they made a preliminary final, and last from the games played to this point in 2026. So, the limited data presented above suggest that Collingwood will be okay if they can get slightly more output out of they big men up forward.

But that’s not to say there won’t be challenges in Collingwood finding avenues to goal. Last year the 16-time premiers had 26 players score at least one goal over the course of the season. This is the equal second lowest number of individual goalscorers across the league (tied with Fremantle and Hawthorn and one ahead of Adelaide, who were the lowest) and a bit of a drop off compared to their 2024 total (33).

While having a small group of players who consistently keep the scoreboard ticking over isn’t a bad thing (e.g., getting good return from your key forwards, like Geelong did in 2025), teams need to be able to find goals from other avenues if their first-choice weapons are unavailable or nullified during a game.

Ball movement (or lack thereof) may contribute to this, but so does scoring.

“Early in the piece, there was a clear clash of styles at play,” Gemma Bastiani wrote in the Opening Round match report between Collingwood and St Kilda. “St Kilda was a little stagnant – well-structured and working hard to be measured in its ball use – while Collingwood slung the footy from its back half like a bull at a gate.”

“Flicking the ball by hand at pace, the Pies were able to create a number of dangerous opportunities close to goal thanks to the space afforded by such speed.”

Data from Wheelo Ratings shows that Collingwood have increased the proportion of possession chains that start in their defensive 50 and result in an inside 50 in their two games this year compared to last year (27.8% compared to 22.4%) and the proportion of possession chains that start in D50 and result in a score (13.4%, up from 8.0%). However, their average points scored from their defensive half has gone slightly backwards (29.0 in 2026 compared to 29.7 in 2025).

But scores from stoppage has seen a bigger drop off, down an average 11.6 points on 2025 numbers – even though McRae’s side has won the stoppage clearance count on both occasions this year (21-16 against St Kilda, and 20-13 against Adelaide).

So, as is the case with a lot of what is spoken about by football media, things are never as bad or as good as they seem – and that the truth is somewhere in the middle.

Yes, Collingwood haven’t shot the lights out in their first two matches. But there are certainly other clubs in a similar position to the Magpies (looking at you, St Kilda) at this very early stage of the season.

Let’s give it another few weeks to see how clubs settle and adjust to the new rules, and to get to a point where everyone has played a similar number of games before we start making such a big deal out of how individual teams are going.

And if you’re an Essendon fan, you might too.

The Bombers have played six matches on Friday the 13^th, all falling between 1998 and 2010. This is the equal-second most of any AFL team (tying with Carlton), behind Collingwood’s league-leading eight games.

The men in red and black went 3-3 in these matches, but their most recent appearance – round 20, 2010 – was something straight out of a horror movie.

The Magpies were too good for Matthew Knights’ team that night, kicking eight goals to three in the first quarter on their way to a 98-point win – the largest margin on Friday the 13^th in V/AFL history.

Two young Bombers made their debut in front of 59,277 people on that night in August: Jake Carlisle and Stewart Crameri. The pair combined for 25 disposals and a goal as Travis Cloke overpowered the Essendon defence, finishing with 5.5.

So it seems history may be against Dyson Sharp, Max Kondogiannis, and Hussien El Achkar, after the club announced the trio of 2025 draft picks would run out for the first time against another traditional rival, Hawthorn.

Hawthorn have played three times on Friday the 13^th, with 2026 marking the third consecutive year the club have done so. 2024 was the infamous Ken Hinkley aeroplane gesture game after Port Adelaide squeezed out a three-point win against the Hawks in the semi-final, while last year was the Hawks/Crows slopfest in Launceston (where Hawthorn won by three points).

Tonight’s round 1 match up has the added drama of former Essendon skipper Zach Merrett coming up against the side that tried – and failed – to lure him away from The Hangar during the offseason.

“It was definitely difficult – and, not to go through everything, but there’s no doubt I was struggling a little bit at the back end of last year, personally,” Merrett said during a television appearance on Tuesday night.

“Trying to find and see the light for where we’re going as a footy club and myself, to then get to the point of asking for a trade.

“That wasn’t the hardest part — I think the hard part was all the intensity in the media, and probably some narratives and some discussion and points that were made that I thought were pretty unfair, and a fair way from the truth.

“That was hard to live with. And then seeing how that puts pressure on your family and friends around you - it was certainly a unique situation I’ve never been in.”

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Hawks coach Sam Mitchell was quick to show how his side had moved on from their unsuccessful attempt to lure the five-time Crichton Medallist to Dingley.

“He plays for them right now, so he’s the enemy,” Mitchell said earlier this week.

“He’s one of a pretty powerful midfield when they’re up and going, their rucks causing a lot of trouble in the centre bounce in particular, so there’s some challenges around that ... so we’ve got some challenges on our hands.’‘

Hawthorn will be looking to bounce back against Essendon following their disappointing Opening Round loss to Greater Western Sydney.

But last year’s preliminary finalists haven’t had a smooth lead-up to tonight’s match, with details of Dylan Moore and Connor Macdonald’s offseason arrest being made public during the week.

Moore and Macdonald were arrested while travelling in the United States for allegedly trespassing (climbing a scissor lift) after a night out.

“It was a current legal matter at that time and we didn’t want to impact or impede those proceedings, so it was a really easy decision for us to make,” Hawthorn’s executive general manager of football Rob McCartney said on Wednesday.

“There’s still some things to play out, but they’ve already done the things that the courts expect of them, and we expected that in the next couple of months, that will be when the closure comes,” McCartney said.

“They accepted the consequences that would come with the behaviour, they were extremely remorseful right from day one and (showed) a willingness to re-educate, and I don’t think we can ask for much more post the event.”

India defeated New Zealand by 96 runs in the 2026 T20 World Cup overnight, thanks to half centuries from their top three – 89 to Sanju Sampson, 52 to Abhishek Sharma, and 54 to Ishan Kishan – and 4/15 to Jasprit Bumrah.

The victory saw India become the first (co-)host nation to win the tournament, the first team to win back-to-back T20 World Cups, and the first team to win three such titles – edging them ahead of two-time champions England (2010, 2022) and the West Indies (2012, 2016).

Last night’s final in Ahmedabad marked the end of a 55-match tournament that started more than a month ago. And while there were certainly entertaining matches in the Super 8s and semi-finals, you can argue that the most exciting or interesting matches happened during the group stages of the tournament.

For example, the opening match between the Netherlands and Pakistan almost delivered a massive upset. After winning the toss and choosing to bowl, Pakistan restricted the Netherlands to 147.

The men in green were cruising, at one stage only requiring 50 runs from nine overs to claim victory. Enter Paul van Meekeren, who triggered a collapse after striking with a double-wicket maiden.

Pakistan needed 29 runs with two overs remaining. And there was every chance the Netherlands would have stopped them from reaching the target, had it not been for Max O’Dowd dropping Faheem Ashraf on the second ball of the nineteenth over. Faheem took advantage of the life he was given, smashing an unbeaten 29 from 11 to get his side home.

Similarly, Nepal almost beat England the following day. The Poms made a very reasonable 7/184 from their allotted overs, with Nepal finding themselves 6/175 at the start of the final over,

But Lokesh Bam, who had kept his country in the game with 35 from 15 to that point (including four fours and two sixes), and tailender Karan KC could only manage five runs from Sam Curran’s six deliveries – leaving the Rhinos agonisingly short of what would have been a historic victory.

The remaining matches between associate and full members were much more one-sided. Which begs the question – are associate member teams actually performing better when it comes to the T20 World Cup?

The nine associate members that featured in the 2026 T20 World Cup – Canada, Italy, Namibia, Nepal, the Netherlands, Oman, Scotland, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States – played 22 matches against full members. This is a significant increase on the four matches played by Kenya and Scotland during the inaugural edition of the tournament.

This was the second consecutive T20 World Cup to feature nine associate member nations, after the tournament expanded from 16 to 20 teams for the 2024 edition. Papua New Guinea and Uganda featured two years ago but did not qualify this time around.

If we only consider the win-loss records, the nine associate members were 0-22 against full members during the 2026 World Cup. This was the worst performance by the lower membership category since Afghanistan, Hong Kong, Ireland, the Netherlands, Oman, and Scotland went a combined three-from-ten in the 2014 tournament.

It also continues a decline in performance, after associate members won four of 11 matches in 2022 (36.4%) and two of 24 in 2024 (8.3%). The last time none of the associate members defeated a full member happened was when Sri Lanka hosted the tournament in 2012, with Afghanistan and Ireland losing both their respective pool matches.

For those who are interested, associate members have won 15 matches against full members across the 10 times the tournament has been played. Four of the 15 wins came from Afghanistan and Ireland, with each country winning twice as associates before these teams became full members.

The Netherlands are the most successful associate member nation with four wins. Including their now famous four wicket win over England at Lord’s in 2009.

Five other nations account for the remaining seven victories: Canada (2004 v Ireland), Hong Kong (2014 v Bangladesh), Namibia (2021 v Ireland and 2022 v Sri Lanka), Scotland (2021 v Bangladesh and 2022 v the West Indies), and the USA (2024 v Pakistan in a super over).

So, associate member teams aren’t winning more matches. But are they at least getting more competitive? We can test this by looking at the winning margins of wickets and runs over time.

The data in matches where a full member defeated an associate member is somewhat limited, with 20 matches played across the first eight World Cups and 21 occurring in the most last two. Perhaps the shift towards winning the toss and bowling explains this change?

Regardless of the reason (and the uneven distribution of the data), the average number of wickets full member teams have won by has remained relatively steady. The lowest average margin in tournaments involving multiple matches occurred in 2022 (5.7 wickets), while the highest occurred in 2021 (7.8 wickets).

Things are a little clearer when we look at matches decided by runs, even though the number of matches in the earlier iterations of the tournament are again on the lower side. Despite some fluctuation in the 2014, 2016, 2021, and 2022 tournaments, there is a downwards trend if you consider all available data.

Things now don’t look good for associate members on two different metrics. But what if we ignore the results – and the margins – and instead look at how well the teams have performed with respect to wickets lost and taken as well as runs scored and conceded.

This is where we see perhaps the most encouraging findings. While there have been some dips along the way, associate members, on average, scored twice as many runs in the 2026 World Cup compared to the 2007 World Cup.

The number of fours and sixes hit have also trended upwards, with teams averaging 12.3 fours and 4.8 sixes per game in their most recent World Cup outings. In contrast, the number of wickets lost has remained relatively steady across the ten tournaments.

However, the average number of runs conceded by associate member nations jumped sharply during the 2026 World Cup compared to other recent tournaments, along with the number of boundaries hit off their bowling. There was also a slight increase in the average number of wickets taken, but teams were still an average of two wickets per match down from the highly successful 2022 World Cup.

Of course, there are many reasons that could explain the fluctuation in performance by associate members. There are more teams competing in tournaments these days, meaning there are more games against the full member nations.

But the associate member teams do not always appear tournament after tournament, and the higher ranked teams will also improve with time (apart from maybe Australia, given their performance in the 2026 edition).

The host nation(s) also change, meaning the impact of weather conditions, pitch preparation, and ground sizes vary each time the tournament is held. Sometimes matches are more conducive to batting, other matches favour the bowlers.

Regardless of the reasons, it’s interesting to see the progress (or lack thereof) that associate member nations are making on the big stage in the shortest form of the game. Hopefully the 2028 World Cup, hosted in Australia and New Zealand, is a happier hunting ground compared to Sri Lanka and India.

Rowell acknowledged his family, the club that made him the first overall pick in the 2019 national draft, his teammates, the osteopath and psychologist that helped keep his body and mind in peak condition over the course of the season, the makers of his much-loved Asics boots, and even his junior club, the Canterbury Cobras.

However, there was no mention of the umpires, who allocate the votes to the three players they collectively deem to be the best on the ground.

And perhaps there should have been a reference to the officials, given there were multiple instances during the count where the former Carey Grammar product received votes in games that large proportions of the media – and the public – felt that he didn’t deserve.

Thankfully, there’s a way we can check this.

Using data collated by X account QuantPunter, it’s possible to generate a consensus view of which players 20 different predictive models thought would receive votes on football’s night of nights.

We can then compare the predicted and actual number of votes to determine which games “agreed” with the models and which games didn’t. It’s certainly not a perfect system (as I touched on in my piece about Patrick Cripps’ record-breaking vote haul in the 2024 count), but it does the job for the purposes of this piece.

If we consider games where the predicted and actual votes differed by more than 0.5 votes, the grass eater had 10 games where he polled more votes than he was predicted to, and four games where he polled fewer votes than expected.

Both counts are higher than what the Carlton skipper had last year (nine games and one game, respectively). Only one other player had 14 games where their predicted and actual returns were separated by more than 0.5 votes: Greater Western Sydney’s Tom Green, who had six games where he “overachieved” and eight games where he “underachieved”.

There were 37 different umpires involved in the 14 games mentioned above, with 12 umpires appearing on two or more occasions. John Howorth and Nathan Toner appear the most frequently on this list, with five games each. Howorth appeared in four games where Rowell “overachieved”, while Toner officiated three such games. Brendan Hosking was the next most commonly occurring umpire (four matches, with an even split of “overachieving” and “underachieving” games).

Howorth and Toner also appear at the pointy end of the list when you consider the umpires with the largest difference between the predicted and actual number of votes Rowell received (among umpires who officiated at least three games Rowell played in).

The number one pick in the 2019 national draft polled 11 votes in games involving Howorth – 7.35 more than what he was predicted to, at an average of 1.47 votes per game – and 10 votes in games involving Toner (3.24 more votes than predicted, average of 0.65 votes per game). But Jamie Broadbent and Matthew Young also need to be considered, as they were involved in games where Rowell polled an average of 1.72 and 1.71 votes above what was predicted.

At the other end of things, Martin Roger was the only umpire who appeared to be unfavourable towards Rowell in multiple games, awarding the redhead an average of 0.54 fewer votes per game than what the models predicted he should poll.

So perhaps Rowell should have thanked some of the umpires in his Brownlow speech, as it certainly seems the win wouldn’t have been possible without him performing well above expectations compared to other pre-count fancies, such as Collingwood’s Nick Daicos, Geelong’s Bailey Smith, and Adelaide’s Jordan Dawson.

This isn’t saying that the umpires did anything untoward during the voting process, but as many of the post-count discussions touched on, perhaps the umpires place greater emphasis on factors that weren’t included in the predictive modelling.

Or perhaps, as others suggested, there is too much going on during games for umpires to have an accurate recollection of what happened out on the ground. Perhaps giving the umpires access to individual player statistics (e.g., disposal counts, etc.) would help. Perhaps it wouldn’t.

But given that the AFL recently announced that field umpires will be able to review 17 different statistics before casting their votes during the 2026 season, perhaps this will be the year that whoever ends up with “Charlie” around their neck will finally mention the men in green (or blue or yellow, depending on the day).

It’s also important to remember that the data presented above could be an anomaly that occurred this season and won’t happen again next year. For example, Jacob Mollison and Matt Stevic both, on average, awarded Cripps more than 1.5 votes per game than he was predicted to receive in last year’s count – but had just one game between them this year where Cripps’ predicted and actual votes differed by more than 0.5 votes (and Cripps “underachieved” in that game).

However, if the results of the last two Brownlow Medals are anything to go by, the 2026 winner won’t necessarily be the favourite.

One thing we do know is that Rowell’s Brownlow Medal defence will be delayed. The 2025 Gold Coast club champion underwent surgery on his left hand last month after breaking a finger during the State of Origin game.

afl.com.au’s Josh Gabelich has reported Rowell will miss the Suns’ Opening Round clash against Geelong, and “is likely to miss more games”.

Not all AFL matches are created equal. This is particularly true for close matches.

Some are edge-of-your-seat thrillers involving two powerhouse teams, trading goals until a piece of individual brilliance late in the game seals victory for one lucky team.

Greater Western Sydney’s win over Geelong at GMHBA Stadium in Round 9 last year is a great example of this kind of match. There had been 13 lead changes before Jake Riccardi put the Giants back in front with his only goal for the day in the 25^th minute of the final quarter, helping his side to a four-point win.

Others are instantly forgettable, where only the most dedicated (or masochistic) supporters sit through four quarters of terrible weather and/or gameplay.

The Round 18 disaster between Richmond and Essendon at the MCG comes to mind when thinking about this second type of game. Rather than talking about this game in my own words, I’ll quote the official match report from the AFL website:

In arguably the lowest-quality match of the season, the Tigers failed to score a goal in the second and third quarters, but still managed to secure their fourth win of the season.

After each team kicked three goals in the opening quarter, the standard of the match collapsed dramatically.

Essendon kicked the only goal across the second and third quarters as both teams repeatedly butchered the ball.

No team scored a goal after Richmond ace Jayden Short’s major late in the first quarter until midway through the third term, when Essendon young gun Archer May converted a free kick.

And if that summary was too polite for you, here’s Triple M’s Sunday Rub crew sharing their thoughts on the underwhelming clash between the Bombers and the Tigers as part of the build up to the game they were covering that day:

@triplemfootyIt couldn’t possibly get any worse than the Dons and Tigers last night 😭😭 #triplemfooty #essendon #richmond #footy #afl

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But what if I told you that the Essendon/Richmond disaster class was the closest – or most equal – match of the entire 2025 season?

(I’ll pause here for a moment while you make a “most equally bad” joke about the two clubs. Go on, you know you want to.)

That’s right, the Tigers’ nine-point win over the Bombers was closer than the four matches with one-point margins – as well as the Round 9 draw between North Melbourne and Brisbane.

“How is that possible?”, I hear you say.

Like in many situations, the devil is in the details. And there are two key details you need to consider:

1. We limit ourselves to the 158 matches where both teams held a lead at some point during the game; and

2. We define “closest” as the sum of each team’s biggest lead in each of these 158 matches.

For example, Carlton’s biggest lead in their Round 1 capitulation against Richmond was 41 points, which occurred in the 16^th minute of the second quarter after Sam Walsh goaled. Conversely, the Tigers got out to a 17-point lead just before time on in the final quarter, courtesy of a Rhyan Mansell major. Adding 41 and 17 gives us a total of 58 points.

Similarly, the slopfest between Richmond and Essendon saw the Tigers and the Bombers get out to 10- and 7-point leads, respectively, for a total of 17 points. This is the smallest total sum of the biggest leads from the 2025 season – which, in a roundabout way, makes it the closest game of the year.

Here’s a list of each club’s “closest” game of 2025:

Keen observers will note that the closest match for Adelaide and Hawthorn was their Friday night clash in Launceston during Round 14, which sparked wild conspiracy theories that the AFL had deliberately scheduled a night game in the middle of June to show why the new stadium being built in Tasmania needs a roof.

I guess that the Adelaide/Hawthorn and Richmond/Essendon games really do show that a close game isn’t always a good game.

And I’m glad I did, because I stumbled across something interesting (to me, at least).

I started off by looking at the most favourable and unfavourable player/umpire pairings with respect to the difference between the actual and predicted number of votes players received, where the predicted number of votes is the average of 20 different statistical models.

Quick disclaimer repeating what I wrote last year:

It’s important to note that the figures presented below should be interpreted with caution. The four umpires award Brownlow votes as a group, not an individual, so it’s a little unfair to make a direct 1:1 comparison with players.

But due to the number of umpires across the league, where they are located, and how their schedule/roster falls, there are a limited number of occasions where two or more umpires officiate together more than once or twice, which makes it challenging to look at how sets or groups of umpires award votes.

You could also argue that the Brownlow predictor models are not accounting for something that the umpires consider when allocating the votes, but I feel this is veering into a Moneyball style situation of analysts butting heads with baseball scouts about how to scout and assess players. We know that Brownlow voting is an imperfect science, but it’s still interesting to look at things like this.

Now, back to the data.

Here’s the top 10 most favourable pairings for the 2025 Brownlow:

We can see that 2024 Brownlow Medallist Patrick Cripps and Sydney Swans gun Chad Warner were the biggest beneficiaries from certain umpires, with the pair polling at least six votes more than they were predicted to across matches involving Alex Whetton and Brendan Hosking, respectively.

2025 Brownlow Medallist Matt Rowell appears three in the top 10 most favourable pairings, polling well above what he was predicted to in matches involving Jamie Broadbent, Matthew Young, and John Howorth.

I’ll expand on this in more detail in another post, but based on how things shook out in the 2024 count it’s not that surprising to see that the player with the most votes got a bit of a leg up somewhere along the way.

Broadbent is the only umpire to appear in the top 10 twice, also featuring for new Brisbane Lions co-captain Hugh McCluggage (where the Scottish suitcase received roughly 3.5 votes more than anticipated).

And here’s the top 10 least favourable pairings:

At the other end of things, George Hewett and Josh Dunkley failed to capture the attention of Whetton and Broadbent in their games, with Whetton also diverging from the models with respect to Ed Richards’ performances.

Andrew Heffernan joined Whetton as two-timers in the top 10, seemingly not rewarding Riley Thilthorpe and dual Norm Smith Medallist Will Ashcroft for their efforts. Perhaps Heffernan just isn’t that interested in hair (facial or otherwise)?

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Seeing the Cripps/Hewett and McCluggage/Dunkley pairings got me wondering – how many of the field umpires had their most favourable and least favourable players appear on the same team? Was Whetton the only one, or where there more?

After doing a bit of digging, it turns out that nine other umpires also had this particular anomaly:

Eagle-eyed observers will notice that the differences between predicted and actual votes for Cripps and Hewett in matches involving Whetton are almost identical. A case of mistaken identity, perhaps?

Chad Warner seems to be the apple of several umpire’s eye compared to the objectively more handsome Brody Grundy, while the performances of the “colourful character” Dayne Zorko were deemed more impressive than the feats of young forward Logan Morris and new co-captain Josh Dunkley in the else of other whistleblowers.

And perhaps Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera would have taken the three votes in the Round 20 game between St Kilda and Melbourne if Rob O’Gorman was umpiring, rather than the quartet of Jeff Dalgleish, Nick Brown, Martin Rodger, and James Strybos.

For those who have forgotten, this was the game where NWM starred as the Saints overcame the biggest ever three-quarter time deficit to claim the unlikeliest of wins – but he only received two votes. Melbourne’s Jack Viney was deemed to be best on ground.

Finally, for the sake of completeness, here’s the most and least favourable umpire pairing for each club:

Who do you think was the luckiest – or unluckiest – player to appear in this piece? Let me know in the comments below!