What comes after GLP1 drugs? What if I told you there is a problem that affects 1-5 people in the world and drug makers are near solving it and one of these drug makers isnt really a drug maker at all but a provider of bleeding edge therapies? This weekly drop in content is outside of or normal writing which we are compiling on semi power companies. Its a thought I had recently that started fleshing out a bit more and we are going to know which direction this trade will go here soon as binary events are on the horizon.. So let us begin.

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This is a short dated thesis… could be wrong but its my thought here..interesting timing..

“Uneconomic.”

That’s the word. That’s the whole thing. Carney said the Americans came in with terms that were “uneconomic, unfair, and undermined the net benefits for Canada,” and then put a bow on it: they asked too much, offered too little.

Sit with “uneconomic” for a second. This is a central banker. He picks words the way other people pick stocks. Nobody calls market access uneconomic. Nobody calls digital trade alignment uneconomic. You call a capital demand uneconomic — a number you ran that didn’t pencil. “Undermined the net benefits for Canada” is the same tell in a different suit. That’s a guy who built a model, looked at the output, and walked.

Now run the tape, because there’s a hole in this story shaped exactly like that.

August 18-19: framework deal. Both sides doing the victory lap. Carney’s out there saying Canada “entered these discussions with the best overall trade terms,” moving toward “the best terms in each of Canada’s most important strategic sectors.” Trump tells reporters we’ve come to a deal. Greer says he’s confident. Champagne on ice.

Same window — same damn window — Trump posts that Keystone XL “may be awoken from the grave.” And USTR describes the deal as “comprehensive market access for all American goods, economic security commitments, digital trade alignment.”

Economic security commitments. Four words doing an enormous amount of undefined work.

August 21: dead. Fifty percent at the stroke of midnight.

So price the asks we actually know about. US liquor back on provincial shelves. Canada dropping its retaliatory auto tariffs. That’s the reported list. And I’m sorry, restocking Jim Beam in the LCBO does not detonate a deal the Prime Minister was taking a bow on 48 hours earlier. Something got added late and it was heavy. Nothing on the public list weighs enough.

Here’s where I stop short: nobody has reported a Keystone funding demand. Not one outlet. What is sourced is Carney raising the pipeline himself back in October 2025, as his pitch to shake loose steel and aluminum relief. So the pipeline came from Ottawa’s side of the table originally. That part holds.

But the structural case is the strong one, and it’s this — the developer will not move on Trump’s clock. South Bow isn’t expecting a final investment decision on Prairie Connector until mid-2027. Feeding Alberta production into multiple lines runs on the order of $100 billion in capital. Nobody underwrites that against a three-year political window with Democrats maybe walking in the door. Private money doesn’t move that fast because private money isn’t stupid.

If Trump wants steel in the ground before he’s out, sovereign money is the only money on the calendar.

And demanding allied capital as the toll for tariff relief isn’t some exotic theory. That’s the template — Japan, the EU, Korea, all of it in 2025. Canada wouldn’t be the exception. Canada would be the pattern.

Godspeed

LAP

I wanted to write this last week but potato I was on vacation for a few days in what was and will be the most stressful time I have had in my life in a very very long time. I wont go into details too much but lets just say I went from having a massive order to having no massive order. I got egg on my place trying to play with the big boys but as most folks that read this weekly probably understand, I shall seek my revenge in another way over time :) Anywho, with the recent news from MRNA and them “curing” cancer and I use the term cure here lightly it is now apparent that AI in medicine is actually going to change things. If you havent read our previous articles on biotech like Murderball and healthcare . They are linked here, they provide some insight into what we are going to be chirping about below and provide a framework so we dont have to go back and forth 789 times….. I beleieve and will say once again with absolute conviction that some of the greatest advances in modern medicine will be coming from AI and its addition and insertion into the healthcare system. The biggest plays IMO will revolve around data, just as we have chirped ad nauseum in our Wall Thesis about regulated data this is directly in line with that thesis.. So let us dig in lads.. You can run open models all you want hell even give them away for free that doesnt change that the data they need comes at a cost..

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Welp here we are again another week has gone by and stocks we have discussed over the last few months are starting to get their day in the sun, namely biotech this time around and some physical AI components/robotics driven by Unitree, but this article isn’t about old things well maybe some of it is. It is the first part of a three part series where we once again dig into the furu term of bottlenecks, We are once again going to chirp loud and clear about something we believe the market is missing we talked about it last week which was basically part 5 of our Wall thesis. I cannot stress this enough as of current our book is roughly 33% aligned in total with stocks we have talked about from just that one article alone. I firmly am planting my feet in the ground there and saying out loud that I do not believe I am incorrect I believe I am early and picking winners will be difficult which is why we focus on regulated data. We place our own money behind our mouths and we are doing it once again and this one could be wild because the street is still rating this stock as a shitco.. we think it has the possibility to be much much more…Oh we are also raising prices, we have to switch API vendors and either I do this or shutdown The Demand Zone, its not cheap to run and I cannot continue to eat the API costs every month like I am.. I got two kids to feed, so lock in your pricing now or cry later. With that lets get down to brass tactics welcome to another episode…… When you read this we will have the CPI numbers, lets see if my model was correct or its way off, good battle test in public like this.. ok ok onwards!

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This i s about the future, things that havent happened yet but we believe will we are once again fortune telling.

Good morning, took a nice little break while posting some week old content excuse me for taking a breather its needed sometimes. The amount of time and work we place into our substack is lets just say a lot. What are we writing about this week is an expansion of our Wall Thesis, we want to bake some of this in a bit more clearly and explain our thoughts and viewpoints about what we believe will happen. Of course there will bumps and dumps along the way but as a whole on a long enough time frame barring an asteroid or nuclear war, We believe this is the end of the beginning, or if your glass is half empty type the beginning of the end. The print earlier in regards to jobs from ADP sparked something I can see it by looking at around 40 tickers at one time, its a rotation from growth into safety. You might not see it yet but I believe its there, a flight from growth to safety namely backed by Warsh being hands off and the fears of a rate hike into declining employment (Gold, healthcare, metals, XLP). We need the tail end of rates to come down.. period. we can manipulate the price of digital oil into perpetuity ( dont tell the oil bulls this they wont like it) it is in fact, a fact. The only true way for this to happen is declining employment and/or sustained decline of inflation values. At face value the war ending does one of these which could and should bring the tail end down. So what am I doing? I am positioning for the future and as I have said there will be bumps and dumps along the way. We have a Core CPI print next week thats going to feed the long end one way or another. This trade will be messy as its the most difficult and bold trade I will have made most likely ever in my trading career.. So with that said let us begin at the end of the beginning.

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This week we talk one stock and one thesis that I have had for a very very long time now. This is something I have thought about for a few years and it is about housing. We continue to see home prices and rates elevated but what if this elevation becomes the norm and homes stay expensive forever? The answer to this is how to make the most home per square foot and the running gun here is of course none other than tiny homes. See here’s the read, the new generation of home buyers at the majority do not care how large their house may be, they care about what experiences they can have in life while not going broke paying for rent or a mortgage. This generation is about experiences, full stop. So with that lets talk about this exact experience of home ownership and the one stock we have recently taken a position in. Oh and the laws just changed which might allow this to move forward at turbo speed and no one is chirping about it but us,Leggo.

Also, we are going to back down some on the amount of technical analysis, we know you are here to read about interesting stocks and ideas not our technical analysis. So we are coming back full circle to some of our roots.. the people have asked and we are answering!

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America has 29 years of gas left —and AI data centers just stacked export-scale demand onto a supply base growing at half the goddamn rate. The balance goes net-negative in three years. The only thing standing between here and a Henry Hub supernova is the one energy source Wall Street still writes off as a subsidy trade. Probably gonna want to pay attention here as once again we didn’t sugar coat this..

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You should know by now that we are bullish on and our price targets are still aways away, sure we will talk some about that but we will truly focus on a few things that very few folks outside of fintwit seem to understand. How truly massive some of the advancements that Intel has made with packaging and memory. This doesn’t even include 14/18AP. What this article will do is highlight these two important pieces of the puzzle and how the moat and value accrual for Intel could be a massive tailwind that could see the stock outperform. So lets just get after it shall we?

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There’s a merger sitting on the tape right now that shouldn’t be possible: a deal that’s already done — both boards signed, both shareholder bases voted yes — trading at a 5% discount to its own agreed price, months before it closes. Wall Street only gifts you that kind of spread when it’s decided the thing underneath is radioactive, and it has decided exactly that here, because the two companies involved make the single most boring, most invisible, most completely un-skippable component in modern electronics — the silicon that sits between every antenna and every chip on Earth, in your phone, your car, and every humanoid robot that’s about to know where it is without ever seeing GPS. The desk has these two filed under “dying phone-chip stocks” and is busy re-litigating last quarter’s iPhone units. What it’s actually missing: a US-based, #2-in-the-world RF, connectivity, and power champion forming at a discount, with a business inside it aimed straight at AI-datacenter power that nobody’s paying a dime for — and a three-year map that runs from a dividend-cushioned floor to a triple. We name both names, break down the arb, and lay out the bull-to-bear targets below. Subscribe to read who — and why we’re buying the discount.

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This one is going to have a lot of folks scratching there noggins and it is absed upon a few believes. One is that inflation has topped rates will ease and the chatter of rate hikes will subside. Rate cuts will be on the table as employment begins to creep downwards and inflation from headline rolls over into cool territory. This stock that has been absolutely clobbered and inline with both and OpenAI is the subject of this weeks Fade the Desk

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What happens then .. this is what we ask ourselves a lot. What we mull over on repeat incessantly at night sometimes staying awake for hours imagining, dreaming, and contemplating what will the world look like not for us but for our children. So that’s what this is about. What we believe the world looks like after the year 2030 which is where normal models of gauging finance fracture. Where DCF is no longer a valuation tool but a relic of long lost times of when things were different. Make no mistake as we progress down this path the world will look amazingly different than it does today. We don’t believe its the end, but we do believe it is the end of the beginning. Let us dig and and hopefully understand… where we might be headed.

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There’s a stock that’s been left for dead so many times it has a tombstone joke attached to it: “where stocks go to die.” It pays a fat dividend, it’s run by adults, and the sell-side has modeled it as a 5%-grower grinder for fifteen years. Boring. Owned by your uncle. Priced like a bond.

That stock just put up its best infrastructure quarter in a decade, wrote three of the four cryptographic standards the entire planet is about to be legally forced to adopt, and committed $10 billion to building the first fault-tolerant quantum computer — in a foundry it’s co-funding with the U.S. government.

And the Street still carries the quantum business at zero.

Hello McFly, let us begin shall we?

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It has been a wild week as usual, every day seemingly normal turns into some binary event. The market just ignored the entire Hormuz situation thus far outside of 1-2 weeks and Macro folks are getting absolutely destroyed. Its fun to see them bear post for 3 months straight eventually they will be right and w will have a bear market because thats just how things work and the grift will continue.

The biggest fucking IPO in history printed Friday before lunch. SPCX opened at $150 on a $135 price, futures had it at $172+, $75 billion raised at $1.77 trillion. Aramco 2019 was $29.4 billion — Musk did more than double that in a single morning. And here’s what the desks are slow on: SPCX going public is not a rocket story. It’s the unifying customer for every fucking thesis we’ve written this year — the Wall Series, In-Silicon Cooling, Power Trade After Cooling, humanoid robotics labor disruption, compound semi supply chain, Monroe Doctrine, the State Equity Board. Eighty-plus theses across fourteen months. One door. Every thread.

Underneath the print, Fade the Desk Week 5 dropped on EMAT — lone-analyst $30 PT undermined by the same firm placing the dilutive Yorkville convertible. The rare earth magnet chokepoint thesis is real; EMAT just isn’t the vehicle. MP Materials is. Which loops right back into SPCX — Tesla and SpaceX have no alternative to MP for domestic NdFeB at scale, and the disclosure is coming inside 18 months. Three pieces this week. Same trade rendered in three different fonts. So without further ado.. let us begin..

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⚠ Disclosure — read first. Not financial advice. The content below is for informational and educational purposes only. Pablo is not a registered investment advisor. He may hold positions in any securities mentioned and trades them at his discretion without prior notice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Do your own research and consult a licensed professional before making any investment decision.

So here we are again, and this time I am actually kind of pissed off. Why do analysts continue to chirp about names that have been absolutely been beaten down and chirp without using the whole entire picture? This is the entire reason for us writing fade the desk, because they only take into account one angle to fit their bias. They fail to look at the entire environment of the business as well as where its most likely positioned in the future. This weeks article is one of my favorite stocks we have talked about it before a few weeks ago in our Wall Series. Well we dig into it again in the face of analysts who continue to chirp.. Do me a favor and STFU already.. now lets get to work!

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