<![CDATA[Macrolens]]>https://macrolens.substack.comhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CUL9!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0da2eb26-9a83-47ea-bc00-bc8bc88a3e53_200x200.jpegMacrolenshttps://macrolens.substack.comSubstackThu, 03 Sep 2026 18:55:11 GMT<![CDATA[In the Macrolens: Warsh Gives Doves the Rhetorical Hook]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-warsh-gives-doveshttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-warsh-gives-dovesSun, 30 Aug 2026 19:30:27 GMT

]]><![CDATA[In the Macrolens: Strait Bullshit]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-strait-bullshithttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-strait-bullshitTue, 25 Aug 2026 23:30:45 GMT

]]><![CDATA[Policy Incoherence Weighs on the Dollar]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/policty-incoherene-weighs-on-thehttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/policty-incoherene-weighs-on-theSun, 23 Aug 2026 16:35:04 GMTHere’s this weekend’s Macrolens institutioanl research piece as a thank you to my paid subs here. Depending on how Bessent intends to play this, we may have witnessed a policy watershed.

“The debasement trade” is back.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s ploy to prop up the long end of the Treasury curve by manipulating a buyback program designed to concentr…

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]]><![CDATA[In the Macrolens: Bessent Pokes the Fed]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-bessent-pokes-thehttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-bessent-pokes-theThu, 20 Aug 2026 00:29:01 GMT

]]><![CDATA[In the Macrolens: Payrolls and Fed Outlook]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-payrolls-and-fedhttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-payrolls-and-fedSun, 09 Aug 2026 17:47:33 GMT

]]><![CDATA[In the Macrolens: No Deal on Hormuz]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-no-deal-on-hormuzhttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-no-deal-on-hormuzTue, 04 Aug 2026 23:36:16 GMT

]]><![CDATA[In the Macrolens: The Mess in Yen]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-the-mess-in-yenhttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-the-mess-in-yenFri, 31 Jul 2026 21:23:57 GMT

]]><![CDATA[In the Macrolens: The Ineffectual Dove]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-the-ineffectualhttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-the-ineffectualThu, 30 Jul 2026 00:19:09 GMT

]]><![CDATA[In the Macrolens: Iran Talks Going Nowhere ]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-iran-talks-goinghttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-iran-talks-goingWed, 29 Jul 2026 01:10:22 GMT

]]><![CDATA[Kevin Warsh: Lonesone Dove]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/kevin-warsh-lonesone-dovehttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/kevin-warsh-lonesone-doveTue, 21 Jul 2026 19:06:15 GMTA picture of FOMC dynamics is emerging. While many see Chair Warsh as leading a hawkish charge, I suspect he’s fighting a rearguard action against a committee that has ganged up on him to force a hawkish pivot.

Aside from Warsh, who gave testimony to both houses of Congress last week, we heard from half of the FOMC voting contingent recently. They all indicated that they’re prepared to raise rates if core PCE inflation readings don’t subside soon. They fall into roughly 3 buckets as to what constitutes “soon,” with the two on the hawkish end of the spectrum having fully lost patience.

Critically, they are all expressing concern about the AI Capex boom causing an overheating of demand – all except Warsh, that is.

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]]><![CDATA[In the Macrolens: Kevin Warsh: Lonesome Dove]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-kevin-warsh-lonesomehttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-kevin-warsh-lonesomeSat, 18 Jul 2026 00:16:55 GMT

]]><![CDATA[In the Macrolens: The Fed Barrels Towards a Policy Error]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-the-fed-barrelshttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-the-fed-barrelsTue, 14 Jul 2026 00:52:49 GMT

]]><![CDATA[In the Macrolens: Hormuz Spat Should Stay Contained ]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-hormuz-spat-shouldhttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-hormuz-spat-shouldWed, 08 Jul 2026 22:55:57 GMT

]]><![CDATA[In the Macrolens: Warsh at Sintra]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-warsh-at-sintrahttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-warsh-at-sintraSun, 05 Jul 2026 18:08:41 GMT

]]><![CDATA[In the Macrolens: Trumponomics on the Ropes?]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-trumponomics-onhttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-trumponomics-onSat, 27 Jun 2026 16:03:54 GMT

]]><![CDATA[In the Macrolens: Warsh is Playing With Fire]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-warsh-is-playinghttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-warsh-is-playingWed, 24 Jun 2026 01:21:24 GMT

]]><![CDATA[In the Macrolens: Warsh's Dangerous Strategy]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-warshs-dangeroushttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-warshs-dangerousWed, 17 Jun 2026 21:30:52 GMT

]]><![CDATA[In the Macrolens: The Deal Seals It]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-the-deal-seals-ithttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-the-deal-seals-itMon, 15 Jun 2026 21:29:27 GMT

]]><![CDATA[Turning the Hawkish Supertanker]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/turning-the-hawkish-supertankerhttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/turning-the-hawkish-supertankerMon, 15 Jun 2026 18:13:48 GMTWe got these comments from ECB’s Nagel earlier:

“No relief is in sight for the foreseeable future,” Nagel ​said. “On the contrary: even if the Strait of Hormuz were to become ‌navigable ⁠again soon, it will take months for the oil supply to return to normal.”

“Months to return to normal” seems to be the consensus. Reuters today suggested, “a full return to pre-war production and refining levels is likely to take weeks, months or even years.”

I’m not buying it:

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]]><![CDATA[In the Macrolens: Markets Lose Interest]]>https://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-markets-lose-interesthttps://macrolens.substack.com/p/in-the-macrolens-markets-lose-interestWed, 10 Jun 2026 00:05:12 GMT

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