This condenses 20+ years of trading forex, into less than 30 minutes.

In the notes, I emphasise the significance of planning, risk management, and the psychological aspects of trading, particularly the need for patience and discipline.

When I started learning how to trade, from a DVD back in 2002/3 I unfortunately learned a strategy that entailed spending up to 8 hours a day watching charts on 15-minute time frames.

It was THE worst thing I could have done. I ended up being a “busy fool” as well as an adrenaline-fuelled, gambling “junky.” Which is ironic as I have no interest in gambling & do not bet on anything.

Why?

I have no edge, and obviously, the house does.

Diversifying Trading Strategies and Market Adaptability

The video is a no-script, no AI chat between 2 traders.

The notes below are an AI summary.

The Notes (video down the page)

Marc Walton discusses his evolution as a trader, moving beyond Forex to incorporate crypto, gold, silver, and stocks, all while utilising a consistent strategy. He emphasises the importance of adaptability, especially in volatile market conditions influenced by geopolitical events like the Trump presidency, which introduces daily chaos.

Marc advises traders to be flexible, shifting focus to different markets or sectors when one becomes too challenging.

Strategic Trading Approaches

Marc advocates a systematic approach, suggesting that traders take a trade only when they have at least 5 distinct reasons to do so. He stresses the importance of picking strong areas and being aware that markets can change rapidly.

His strategy involves taking partial profits to secure gains, especially when a trade has doubled the initial risk, to ensure capital is available for living expenses. He also highlights the need to look at previous support and resistance levels on charts to assess probabilities.

Key Trading Principles

• Multiple Reasons for Trades: Never take a trade without at least five supporting reasons.

• Partial Profit Taking: Secure profits along the way to manage risk and ensure capital.

• Historical Analysis: Always look to the left on charts to understand past price behavior.

• Probability-Based Trading: Focus on trades where the probability is in your favour.

• Avoidance of 50/50 Trades: Do not take trades that are essentially gambles.

Simplifying Trading Strategies

Marc stresses the benefits of simplifying trading systems, moving away from numerous indicators to a more focused approach. He believes that many indicators in isolation can be effective, but combining too many can lead to confusion and emotional decision-making.

He personally uses only a few indicators: FIBS, MACD and EMAs, focusing on a few strong reasons rather than a complex system. He also advises against trading on smaller time frames due to increased emotional involvement and potential for mistakes.

The Importance of Planning and Patience

Planning is paramount in Marc’s trading philosophy, accounting for 90% of his process. He dedicates weekends to planning when markets are closed to avoid emotional interference. He emphasises identifying levels for potential entries and exits.

Patience is crucial, and he advises walking away from trading if unsure about market conditions, preventing unnecessary stress and losses. He advocates for a long-term perspective, aiming to place as few trades as possible while still achieving profitability.

Adapting to Market Conditions and Risk Management

Marc suggests starting analysis on longer time frames like weekly and daily charts to identify significant areas of interest.

He uses a checklist for ‘A-grade’ trades, incorporating elements like trend lines, support/resistance, EMAs, Fibonacci levels, whole numbers, and MACD. He also considers the broader market sentiment (risk-on vs. risk-off).

For stop losses, he emphasizes placing them logically behind significant technical levels, generally not exceeding 70 pips, and adjusting them as the trade progresses to protect profits and reduce risk.

Specific Market Insights

• Crypto: Advises against using leverage due to its erratic nature.

• Dollar Index: Uses it as a barometer for market sentiment; currently sees dollar strength.

• Stocks (S&P, NASDAQ): Observing potential reactions at key Fibonacci levels.

• Gold & Silver: Buys them for fundamental reasons and uses technical analysis for entry timing; sees gold as a safe haven.

• Forex: Notes that the London breakout strategy that was once easy is no longer as reliable due to increased Asian session activity and tighter ranges.

Connecting with Mark Walton

Mark Walton offers resources through Forex Mentor Pro (forexmentorpro.com), providing a monthly subscription service with a money-back guarantee. He emphasizes a structured, business-like approach to trading, including developing business, life, and trading plans with clear rules.

🚀 Learn How I Do This in Real Markets

If you want to understand how I identify cycles early and execute with precision across Forex, Stocks, Metals & Crypto:

👉

https://forexmentorpro.com/

🧠 The Edge Most Traders Miss

Most traders react.

I focus on:

• When the move starts

• Why it should happen

• Where the risk is defined

That’s the difference.

📩 Work With Me

If you want to know more about how to trade & invest for yourself, check out my websites:

👉

https://www.forexmentorpro.com/

👉

https://yourinvestingfuture.com/

I am semi-retired now and can only take on a small number of private clients.

If you’re serious about improving your trading & want to manage your own investments, often better than the pro’s:

👉 https://www.forexmentorpro.com/fmp-advanced-mentor-program/

🔔 Don’t Miss the Next Opportunity

Markets move in cycles.

If you want to catch them before the crowd:

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The Cycle Before the Crowd

Marc Walton- Mr "spookily accurate" Trader & Investor Forex • Stocks • Metals • Miners • Crypto

By Marc Walton

“How high can gold go?”

Recently, that conversation has become even louder after reports emerged of traders placing long-dated options that would only pay off if gold reached $10,000+ an ounce.

Whether that happens next year, five years from now, or not at all isn’t actually the question I’m most interested in.

The far more important question is this...

If gold does continue higher, what’s the smartest way to profit from it?

That’s a very different conversation.

During one of my recent live training sessions with members (you can find the recording below). I spent half an hour exploring exactly that. I looked far beyond the gold price itself and into the entire precious metals ecosystem—physical bullion, mining companies, royalty businesses, streaming companies, and even newer ways investors can hold allocated gold outside the traditional banking system.

By the end of the session, most people realised they had been thinking about gold far too simply.

Because gold isn’t one investment.

It’s an entire sector.

And each part behaves differently.

Some investors want wealth preservation.

Some want income.

Some want leverage.

Others simply want a place to protect their purchasing power outside the traditional banking system.

Those objectives require completely different solutions.

That’s why I’ve gradually changed the way I think about precious metals over the past few years.

I’m no longer asking whether gold is “expensive” or “cheap.”

I’m asking whether we’re still in the right cycle.

Because I’ve learned something over more than three decades of investing...

I don’t buy assets because I fall in love with them.

I buy them because I believe the odds are increasingly moving in my favour.

Sometimes that’s currencies.

Sometimes it’s technology.

Sometimes it’s crypto.

Sometimes it’s rare earths, uranium or energy.

And sometimes it’s gold.

Not because I expect it to outperform forever.

But because every major asset class moves through cycles.

Recognising those cycles early has become one of the biggest edges in my investing.

Gold is no different.

In fact, one of the biggest misconceptions I hear is that anyone who owns gold must be a permanent “gold bug.”

I’m not.

There have been long periods in history when I had very little interest in owning precious metals.

But today is different.

The reasons I started building positions several years ago haven’t disappeared.

If anything, many of them have become even stronger.

So, before we talk about miners, royalty companies, streaming businesses, or the latest ways to hold allocated gold, let’s start with the obvious question...

Why do I still believe we’re in one of the most important precious metals cycles of our lifetime?

Why I Believe This Gold Cycle Is Different

One of the biggest mistakes investors make is assuming that because an asset has risen significantly, the opportunity must already have passed.

Sometimes that’s true.

Sometimes it’s completely wrong.

History shows that the biggest gains often occur after a long-term trend has become established, not before. Especially after a pullback and consolidation.

Gold has repeatedly behaved that way throughout history.

It spends years doing very little.

Many investors lose interest, convinced the bull market is over.

Then, seemingly out of nowhere, it begins another powerful move higher.

That’s why I always try to separate price from the underlying reasons for owning an asset.

If the reasons are becoming stronger rather than weaker, I don’t automatically become bearish simply because the price has risen “too much”.

In fact, I often become more interested.

During the recent members’ live session, I showed a chart that perfectly illustrates this point.

Imagine investing $10,000 at the start of the year 2000.

Today, that investment would look very different depending on where you chose to put your money.

• Gold would have grown to roughly $160,000.

• The S&P 500 would have produced less than half that return.

• Leave the money sitting in cash, and after inflation, its purchasing power would have been cut dramatically.

That isn’t an opinion.

The lesson isn’t that gold always wins.

Far from it.

Gold has also experienced long periods where it has been a disappointing investment.

Between 2012 and 2015, for example, investors who bought the highs saw an almost 50% drop. Then the price drifted until COVID. At the same time, stocks surged.

That’s exactly why I don’t consider myself a permanent gold bull.

I’m a cycle investor.

That distinction matters.

I don’t buy gold because I believe it’s magical.

I buy it when I believe the economic backdrop is becoming increasingly supportive.

Equally, there will come a time when I reduce my exposure and move capital elsewhere.

Every asset class has its season.

The challenge is recognising which season we’re entering.

So, Why Do I Think We’re Still Early?

Several powerful trends have been developing simultaneously.

On their own, each one is significant.

Together, they create a backdrop that I believe continues to favour precious metals.

The stock market is currently at all-time highs, with some P/E ratios dangerously high, which is an obvious alarm bell.

Governments continue to accumulate debt

Around the world, government debt continues to grow at levels that would have seemed unimaginable a generation ago.

Debt itself isn’t necessarily the problem.

The question is how that debt is eventually managed.

History suggests governments have only a handful of options:

• grow their way out of it;

• inflate it away;

• default;

• or continually refinance it while gradually eroding the currency's purchasing power.

None of those outcomes is attractive to people holding large amounts of cash or having too much exposure to the stock market.

Central banks are buying gold again

One of the most overlooked developments of recent years has been central banks' behaviour.

Rather than reducing their gold reserves, many have been adding to them at one of the fastest rates seen in decades.

Whenever I see governments doing one thing while encouraging the public to do another, I pay attention.

Central banks clearly still see gold as a strategic reserve asset.

I think private investors should at least ask themselves why.

Inflation hasn’t disappeared

Headline inflation, officially, may have fallen from its peak.

That doesn’t mean the problem has gone away.

Energy.

Food.

Insurance.

Labour.

Healthcare.

Almost every area of life costs more than it did only a few years ago.

If inflation proves more persistent than many expect, preserving purchasing power becomes increasingly important.

Gold has historically been one of the assets that investors turn to during exactly those periods.

Geopolitics isn’t getting simpler

One of the points I discussed during the live session was how quickly global events can change investor sentiment.

Wars.

Trade disputes.

Sanctions.

Currency tensions.

Political uncertainty.

Nobody knows exactly what happens next.

Nor do we need to.

As investors, our job isn’t to predict every headline.

It’s about building portfolios that can withstand a wide range of possible outcomes.

That’s one of the reasons precious metals continue to play an important role in my own thinking.

None of this proves gold will reach $10,000.

And anyone claiming certainty about future prices should be treated with caution.

What it does tell me is that many of the reasons I originally began increasing my allocation haven’t disappeared.

In fact, many have strengthened.

But here’s where I think many investors make their biggest mistake...

They assume that buying gold simply means buying a few coins or bars.

In reality, that’s only one small part of the opportunity.

Because gold isn’t one investment.

It’s an entire ecosystem.

Understanding the differences between physical bullion, ETFs, mining companies, royalty businesses, and streaming companies can dramatically change both your returns and your risk.

That’s where we’ll go next.

Gold Isn’t One Investment

One of the biggest misconceptions I come across is people saying:

“I’m thinking of buying some gold.”

My first question is always the same.

Which kind?

Buying physical bullion is completely different from buying a mining company.

Buying a mining company is completely different from investing in a royalty business.

And a royalty company is different from a streaming company.

They all benefit from rising gold prices, but in very different ways, with varying levels of risk and reward.

Understanding those differences can make a huge difference to your long-term returns.

Let’s start with the simplest.

1. Physical Gold

This is where most investors begin.

Gold coins.

Gold bars.

Allocated bullion stored in a professional vault.

This isn’t the exciting part of the sector.

It’s the foundation.

I don’t own physical gold because I expect it to double every year.

I own it because I view it as financial insurance.

It cannot be printed.

It cannot be diluted by another round of quantitative easing.

It isn’t somebody else’s promise to pay.

It simply exists.

For thousands of years, societies have trusted gold when confidence in paper money has weakened.

That doesn’t mean it’s perfect.

Physical gold produces no income.

You have storage costs.

Insurance costs.

You also need to think carefully about where it’s stored and, just as importantly, who legally owns it.

During the live session, I explained why I only use providers that allocate gold specifically to me. Personally, I do not want to store it at home, though I understand those who think having it on hand is the safest option.

That distinction is incredibly important.

If your provider simply promises they own enough gold “somewhere”, you’re relying on them remaining solvent.

Allocated bullion is different.

Specific bars—or your proportion of a bar—are legally yours.

If the company storing them disappeared tomorrow, you wouldn’t be simply another unsecured creditor joining the queue.

That may sound like a small detail.

I don’t think it is.

When I’m buying gold for wealth preservation, ownership matters.

2. Gold ETFs

Exchange-traded funds are probably the easiest way for most investors to gain exposure to the gold price. Though easiest is often not best.

They’re liquid.

Easy to buy.

Easy to sell.

For many people, they’re a perfectly sensible solution.

If your objective is simply to track the gold price inside a pension or investment account, an ETF can make a lot of sense. It may also be tax advantageous.

However, holding a gold ETF exposes you to counterparty, digital, and systemic risks, as you rely on financial institutions to manage and back your investment.

Personally, I see them differently from owning allocated bullion.

With an ETF, you’re buying a financial product designed to track the price of gold.

With physical bullion, you’re owning the asset itself.

Neither is automatically better.

They’re simply solving different problems.

One is about convenience.

The other is about ownership.

Understanding that distinction is important.

3. Mining Companies

This is where things become much more interesting.

And much more volatile.

Many investors assume a gold mining company should rise by roughly the same percentage as the gold price. If you choose the right ones, they can significantly outperform. My best miner last year returned over 300%!

In reality, that’s rarely how it works.

Mining companies are operating businesses.

They employ thousands of people.

They consume enormous amounts of fuel.

They face rising wage costs.

They have environmental responsibilities.

They borrow money.

They build mines that can take years—and sometimes billions of dollars—to develop.

They’re businesses first.

Gold investments second.

That’s why buying “miners” as a group rarely works for the novice investor.

I analyse them exactly as I would analyse any other company.

Are they well managed with an experienced team?

Has production increased?

Are margins improving?

Is debt falling?

How much free cash flow are they generating?

Are they extending the life of existing mines?

Are they discovering new reserves?

Those questions matter far more to me than simply asking whether the gold price is rising.

During the live session, I walked members through one company I’m currently watching closely.

The company itself isn’t the important part.

The process is.

I’m not looking for companies that simply own gold in the ground.

I’m looking for businesses that can generate significantly more cash flow if gold continues higher.

That’s a very different investment.

It’s also why timing matters.

Historically, miners have underperformed physical gold over very long periods.

But during the right part of the cycle, as has been the case in recent years, they can dramatically outperform.

That’s exactly why I don’t treat them as permanent holdings.

I treat them as cycle opportunities.

4. Royalty Companies

This is probably the part of the precious metals sector that receives the least attention from private investors.

Ironically, it has become one of my favourite business models.

Imagine two companies.

The first owns and operates mines.

It employs tens of thousands of workers.

It buys enormous quantities of diesel.

It negotiates with governments.

It manages environmental issues.

It deals with labour disputes.

It constantly needs more capital.

The second company does none of those things.

Instead, it provides financing to mining companies in return for a share of future production or future revenue.

That’s the royalty model.

They’re effectively financing the industry without taking on most of the operational headaches.

During the live session, I highlighted something I think many investors find surprising.

Some of the world’s largest mining companies employ tens of thousands of people.

One of the largest royalty companies employs only a few dozen.

Think about that for a moment.

No huge workforce.

No giant fleet of mining trucks.

No spiralling fuel bill.

No day-to-day mine management.

Yet they still benefit if production increases and precious metals prices rise.

It’s an extraordinarily efficient business model.

Of course, no investment is risk-free.

Royalty companies depend on their partner mines continuing to operate successfully.

But from a business perspective, I find the economics fascinating.

5. Streaming Companies

Streaming companies are closely related to royalty businesses, but they work slightly differently.

Rather than receiving a percentage royalty, they typically provide upfront financing in exchange for the right to purchase future production at a pre-agreed price.

If gold prices rise significantly over time, that agreement can become extremely valuable.

Again, they’re benefiting from rising production without owning and operating the mine themselves.

It’s another example of why simply saying “I invest in gold” tells you very little.

The opportunities—and the risks—vary enormously across the sector.

So, Where Am I Today?

People often ask me:

“Which is best?”

Physical gold?

Mining companies?

Royalty companies?

Streaming companies?

My answer is always the same.

I don’t think in terms of one winner.

I think in terms of building exposure across different parts of the ecosystem, depending on where I believe we are in the cycle.

Some assets preserve wealth.

Some generate leverage.

Some offer operational quality.

Some provide optionality.

Each has a role.

Understanding that is, in my opinion, far more valuable than simply trying to predict whether gold reaches $5,000, $7,500 or even $10,000.

Because if this cycle continues to unfold the way I believe it could, the biggest opportunities may not come from the metal itself.

They may come from understanding the businesses built around it.

Final Thoughts

When people ask me whether I think gold could reach $10,000 an ounce, my answer is always the same.

It’s possible.

But it’s not the question that keeps me awake at night.

The question I’m far more interested in is this:

“How do I position my portfolio if the world over the next decade looks very different from the one we’ve enjoyed over the last twenty years?”

That’s why I’ve spent so much time studying the precious metals sector.

Not because I believe gold is perfect.

It isn’t.

Gold has endured long periods of underperformance relative to other assets. It produces no income, can be volatile, and there will almost certainly come a day when I reduce my exposure and move capital into the next major cycle.

But today, I continue to believe the backdrop remains supportive.

Governments continue to accumulate debt.

Currencies continue to lose purchasing power over time.

Central banks continue to buy gold.

Geopolitical uncertainty hasn’t disappeared.

And many quality mining companies are still trading well below where I believe their long-term value could eventually be.

Will I be right?

Time will tell.

Nobody has a crystal ball.

What I do know is that I’d rather make investment decisions based on probabilities than headlines.

That’s the approach I’ve followed for more than thirty years.

It’s why I don’t fall in love with any particular asset class.

I simply try to identify where the next opportunity is developing and position myself accordingly.

Today, that still includes gold.

But it also includes understanding the businesses built around gold, because that’s where I believe many investors are still looking in the wrong place.

Whether you decide to own physical bullion, mining companies, royalty businesses, or none of the above is entirely your decision.

My goal isn’t to tell you what to buy.

It’s to encourage you to ask better questions, do your own research and think independently.

Because in investing, independent thinking is often the rarest asset of all.

Watch the Full Presentation

This article is based on one of my recent live training sessions with members, where I walk through the charts, examples and research behind everything I’ve discussed here.

In the video, you’ll see:

• Why some traders are already positioning for the possibility of $10,000+ gold.

• The chart that completely changed the way I think about holding cash.

• Why I believe timing the cycle matters more than simply owning gold.

• The differences between physical bullion, mining companies, royalty companies and streaming businesses.

• I’m researching new ways to hold allocated gold outside the traditional banking system.

• I carry out due diligence before investing in mining companies.

If you’d like to dive deeper, I’ve embedded the full recording below.

▶️ Watch the video here:

Thank You for Reading

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🚀 Learn How I Invest Before the Crowd

If you’d like to understand how I identify major investment cycles before they become obvious—and how I apply the same principles across:

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The Cycle Before the Crowd

Marc Walton- Mr "spookily accurate" Trader & Investor Forex • Stocks • Metals • Miners • Crypto

By Marc Walton

🌐 Forex Mentor Pro

https://www.forexmentorpro.com/

🧠 My Investment Philosophy

Markets move in cycles.

Most investors spend their time reacting to headlines.

I spend mine trying to answer three questions:

• Where is capital likely to flow next?

• Why is that likely to happen?

• How can I position myself before the crowd arrives?

That difference has shaped my approach to investing for more than 30 years.

🔔 Subscribe

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Every week I share:

• Market analysis

• Investment ideas

• Macro insights

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...all from the perspective of someone who has spent more than three decades navigating global markets.

Until next time,

Marc Walton

“I’ve never believed that one investment can make you wealthy forever. Wealth is built by recognising when the cycle changes... and having the courage to change with it.”

March 17th, 2025

How one conversation made me realise I’d been following the same investment philosophy for over 30 years. Some interviews disappear almost as quickly as they’re published.

Others stay with you.

Not because they receive millions of views.

Not because they go viral.

But because they capture something you’ve struggled to explain for years.

That’s exactly what happened when I sat down with Robin Speziale.

Robin has interviewed some outstanding investors, but what I like about him is that he’s genuinely curious. He isn’t looking for clickbait. He wants to understand how people think.

For almost an hour, we talked about everything.

Gold.

Silver.

Bitcoin.

Mining shares.

Forex.

Risk management.

Politics.

Artificial intelligence.

The changing world.

Why I thought the traditional 60/40 portfolio was becoming increasingly outdated.

Why I never buy breakouts without a pullback.

Why I always insist on a minimum reward-to-risk ratio of 2:1 when trading forex.

Why I think women could become some of the best traders.

At the time, it was simply another enjoyable conversation.

I uploaded it.

Shared it.

Moved on.

Recently, a new client raved about it, so I watched it again.

This time, something hit me.

I wasn’t listening to an interview.

I was listening to my entire investment philosophy condensed into one conversation.

🎥 Before You Read Any Further...

If you can spare an hour, I’d genuinely encourage you to watch my conversation with Robin first.

Looking back, I think it’s one of the best interviews I’ve ever done because it naturally covers almost every aspect of how I think about investing, trading and managing risk.

Understanding how successful investors think, in the moment, is priceless.

Check out my thought process in March 2025 that led to one of my best years’ results

just nine months later.

If you don’t have time right now, don’t worry.

Read the article first, then come back to the interview.

Either way, I think you’ll see why it’s become one of my favourite conversations.

Every answer Robin drew out of me pointed back to exactly the same way of thinking.

Different markets.

Different assets.

The same process.

That’s when I remembered another presentation I’d given almost five years earlier.

The Webinar That People Thought Was Ridiculous

On 28th October 2020, I hosted a webinar with a title many people probably thought was crazy.

“Why I Believe Investing In Cryptocurrencies Now Could Be The Best Financial Decision Of Your Lifetime.”

Looking back now, I can understand why.

Bitcoin was still viewed by many as a speculative toy.

Banks dismissed it.

Governments didn’t trust it.

Most financial advisers wouldn’t go anywhere near it.

If you’d told somebody then that one day institutions would fight to launch Bitcoin ETFs, they probably would have laughed.

But I wasn’t trying to make a sensational prediction.

I wasn’t saying crypto would only ever go up.

I wasn’t telling people to sell everything and buy Bitcoin.

I was talking about something much bigger.

A shift in the financial system.

During that webinar, I spent almost as much time discussing inflation, government debt and money printing as I did talking about cryptocurrency itself. I explained why I believed COVID would accelerate one of the biggest wealth transfers we’d seen in decades and why holding large amounts of cash would become increasingly dangerous as inflation eroded purchasing power.

Looking back now...

That webinar wasn’t really about crypto.

It was about recognising a major macro cycle before most people realised it had even started.

That’s the difference.

I Don’t Buy Stories

People often ask me how I seem to find opportunities before they become obvious.

The answer usually disappoints them.

I don’t have secret contacts.

I don’t receive inside information.

I don’t have a crystal ball.

I simply spend an unhealthy amount of time researching.

My wife will tell you that when I become interested in something, I become slightly obsessed.

Actually...

She’d probably remove the word slightly.

I read everything.

I try to understand the technology, though this is not my strength.

The economics.

The politics.

The incentives.

Only then do I start looking at where money might flow.

That’s why I wasn’t interested in buying every cryptocurrency that appeared.

I’ve lived through enough investment booms to know how they end.

I enjoyed and then endured the dot-com bubble.

Thousands of internet companies appeared.

Most disappeared.

A handful changed the world forever.

Though even they had periods of huge drawdowns.

Amazon. (Dropped 95% in 2001)

Google.

eBay.

The winners weren’t the companies with the best marketing.

They were the companies solving genuine problems.

I believed exactly the same thing would happen with crypto. During the webinar, I compared blockchain with the early internet and explained that I wasn’t interested in buying every coin—I was trying to identify the future Amazons of the sector.

That immediately ruled out most of the market.

Why I Bought Cardano

One of my top crypto 10 projects in 2020.

Cardano.

I started buying around five cents.

Now, whenever I mention that, somebody inevitably asks...

“So you knew it was going to three dollars?”

Absolutely not.

If anyone tells you they know exactly where a market is going...

walk away.

Quickly.

Nobody knows.

Certainly not me.

What I believed was this.

If blockchain technology fulfilled even a fraction of its potential...

and if Cardano became one of the platforms helping build that future...

Then five cents looked cheap.

That was my thought process.

Nothing more.

Cardano eventually reached $3.05.

Around a 5,900% gain from my original purchase.

People always focus on the percentage.

I don’t.

Because that’s not the real story.

The Biggest Lesson From The Crypto Bull Market

Throughout that entire run, I kept saying exactly the same thing to members.

“Every time your investment roughly doubles...

remove at least 50% of the stake.

When it doubles again, take some profits.”

Not because I thought the bull market had finished.

Because markets don’t move in straight lines.

Greed ruins more investors than bad analysis ever does.

Most clients followed that advice.

Others did not and had to suffer through a multi-year correction.

Another forgot and got very lucky.

Her account grew from around £100,000 to approximately £1.4 million.

A fantastic result.

When she called me in March 2021 for help, my advice was: “Sell 80% NOW.”

Six weeks later crypto tanked!

A rookie forex trader came to me for help, too late.

He had turned around £2,000 into £75,000.

Then gave almost all of it back.

In one night.

Trying to make even more.

I’ve never forgotten that.

And I often tell new students exactly the same story.

Making money is one skill.

Keeping it is another entirely.

If you can master both...

You’re already ahead of most investors.

Gold Was Always The Next Step

One thing many people misunderstand is that buying crypto never stopped me from buying gold.

To me, they were never competitors.

They had completely different jobs.

Crypto was about growth.

Gold was about preservation.

One accelerated the portfolio.

The other stabilised it.

That’s why, by the time Robin interviewed me in March 2025, around a quarter of my portfolio sat in gold, silver and mining companies.

Some people thought that was strange.

Why would somebody who had been so bullish on crypto also own so much gold?

Simple.

Because I wasn’t investing in headlines.

I was investing in probabilities.

And I believed one of the biggest mistakes investors were making was believing they had to choose one side or the other.

You didn’t.

You could own both.

One protects your wealth.

The other had the potential to multiply it.

That combination suited me perfectly.

The interesting thing is...

The more I have studied inflation.

The more convinced I became that gold wasn’t really an investment at all.

It was my bank account.

Not because it pays interest.

Not because it produces cash flow.

But because throughout history it has preserved purchasing power when governments haven’t.

That may not sound exciting.

It isn’t supposed to.

Sometimes the best investments are the boring ones.

And that’s exactly what led me into the next stage of the story...

Gold Was Never About Gold

Robin then asked me a question that, on the surface, seemed quite straightforward.

“Why are you so bullish on gold?”

My answer probably surprised him.

“I’m not bullish on gold.”

At least... not in the way most people think.

You see, I don’t wake up every morning hoping the price of gold goes up another $50.

I don’t sit there admiring gold bars.

I’m interested in what gold represents.

Protection.

Independence.

Scarcity.

For thousands of years, governments have come and gone.

Currencies have come and gone.

Empires have risen and collapsed.

Gold has simply sat there, quietly doing its job.

That’s why I started buying physical gold again back in 2021.

Not because it was fashionable.

In fact, it wasn’t.

Most people thought it was dead money.

Technology was exciting.

Artificial Intelligence was exciting.

Crypto was exciting.

Gold?

That was for old men in tweed jackets.

Perfect.

I’ve learnt over the years that if everybody already loves something...

It’s usually too late.

I Started Treating Gold As My Bank Account

One of the biggest changes in my own thinking happened over the last few years.

I stopped viewing gold as an investment.

Instead...

I started treating it as my bank account.

That probably sounds strange.

Until you ask yourself one question.

If inflation is quietly destroying the purchasing power of cash every single year...

Why would I leave large amounts sitting there?

If inflation is running at 8% and your savings account pays 2%...

You’ve just lost 6%.

You don’t notice it immediately.

There’s no letter from the bank saying...

“Congratulations... we’ve made you poorer.”

It happens quietly.

Year after year.

Furthermore, the bank tells you your money is safe.

Really? Try withdrawing more than a few $1000 in cash, without the 3rd degree,

“What’s it for”? Who are you paying it to?

In the USA you may be ok for less than $10,000,

In Europe & the UK, a few $1000 can trigger the onslaught.

“It’s my money” doesn’t hack it.

In a bank run, it’s not there.

Gold doesn’t solve every problem.

It doesn’t produce an income.

It doesn’t pay dividends.

But over the long term, it has done one job remarkably well.

It has preserved purchasing power.

That’s all I ask it to do.

In recent years, gold has again proved its value.

Whilst the USD’s spending power has almost halved since 2000,

Gold’s has risen by 1500%.

That’s despite the years 2012 to 2019 being a terrible period for those who bought at the top.

Once again, getting into the cycle at the right time is key.

The Inflation Story Was Never Really About Inflation

One thing that frustrates me is hearing people say...

“Nobody could have seen inflation coming.”

Really? The Fed (can they be that stupid) were even claiming:

Yet the government printed trillions.

Interest rates were held artificially low.

Debt exploded.

Did people genuinely think there would be no consequences?

In my October 2020 webinar, I spent a lot of time talking about inflation.

Some people probably wondered why.

After all...

The title was about cryptocurrency.

Because I wasn’t really talking about crypto.

I was talking about the biggest macroeconomic shift of my investing lifetime.

Crypto happened to be one beneficiary.

Gold happened to be another.

The common thread wasn’t the asset.

It was the cycle.

That’s the point, I think many people miss.

The 60/40 Portfolio

Robin then asked me about traditional investing.

The famous 60/40 portfolio.

Sixty per cent shares.

Forty per cent bonds.

It’s been the default advice from financial advisers for decades.

Now, before I upset every financial planner reading this...

I’m not saying it never worked.

Clearly, it did. Though…

The cynic in me thinks that fund managers love it because they charge fees & don’t have to do much

The problem is the returns have been dropping from around 3% since 1992...

People assume what worked yesterday will automatically work tomorrow.

Markets evolve.

Economies evolve.

The world changes.

Investment strategies have to evolve as well.

If inflation is consistently running faster than the income from your investments...

You’re moving backwards.

Slowly perhaps.

But backwards all the same.

The top USA companies are currently paying around 1% in dividends.

The golden age of living off them has passed for new investors.

I think investors need to become far more flexible than they have been historically.

Why I Never Chose Between Gold And Crypto

People love putting investors into boxes.

“He’s a gold guy.”

“He’s a Bitcoin guy.”

I’ve never understood that.

Why choose?

Crypto and gold serve completely different roles in a portfolio.

Crypto gives me potential hyper growth.

Gold gives me stability.

One accelerates.

One protects.

They’re teammates.

Not competitors.

By March 2025, roughly 25% of my portfolio was in gold, silver, and mining shares.

Some people thought that meant I’d become bearish on crypto.

Not at all.

It meant I was managing risk.

One of the biggest lessons markets have taught me is this.

You don’t have to be all-in on one idea.

In fact...

I’d argue that’s usually a mistake.

Silver Was The Forgotten Opportunity

Robin then moved on to silver.

I’ve loved silver for years.

Not because it’s shiny.

Not because it’s cheaper than gold.

Because the world needs it.

Electric vehicles.

Solar panels.

Medical equipment.

Military technology.

Artificial intelligence.

Computers.

Mobile phones.

Silver sits quietly inside almost everything.

Unlike gold...

Much of it gets used in manufacturing.

It doesn’t generally come back.

That completely changes the supply-and-demand equation.

At the time of our interview, silver was trading around $33 an ounce.

I explained that if it could break convincingly above roughly $35, I believed there was every chance it could move towards $50 and potentially much higher over time.

10 months later, it had almost quadrupled.

My best silver miners performed even better.

Again...

People often think that was a prediction.

It wasn’t, though it turned out to be “spookily accurate”.

It was simply about understanding the supply-and-demand picture.

Then Came The Miners

This is where most investors switch off.

Unfortunately.

Because I saw that this was where some of the biggest opportunities existed.

People understand buying gold & silver.

Very few understand buying mining companies.

Think about it this way.

Imagine owning a warehouse full of gold.

Every time the gold price rises...

Your warehouse becomes more valuable.

That’s effectively what many mining companies own.

Except their precious metal is still in the ground.

The strange thing is...

The stock market often values companies as though gold prices will never rise.

That’s where opportunity appears.

Robin asked why I liked miners so much.

My answer was simple.

Because they were cheap.

Not cheap because they were poor businesses.

Cheap because hardly anybody wanted them.

History tells us that’s usually where the best opportunities live.

One thing people rarely appreciate is how difficult it is to build a new mine.

Even if the gold is in the ground, you can’t start digging tomorrow.

On average, it takes 10 years to build a new mine.

It can cost well over a billion dollars.

Planning permission.

Environmental studies.

Infrastructure.

Political risk.

It’s a huge undertaking.

So when demand suddenly increases...

Supply can’t simply appear overnight.

Economics takes over.

Prices rise.

Profits rise.

Eventually...

Share prices catch up.

That’s why I became increasingly interested in companies such as:

• First Majestic Silver (AG)

• Endeavour Silver (EXK)

• McEwen Mining (MUX)

• Eldorado Gold (EGO)

I wasn’t buying them because they had exciting stories.

I was buying them because I believed the market was dramatically undervaluing what they owned.

One of my own mining investments had already risen around 260%, while silver itself had increased by roughly 40% over the same period.

That’s the power of leverage.

Not financial leverage.

Business leverage.

Owning exceptional businesses at the right point in the cycle.

“By the end of 2025, many of the themes we discussed had played out remarkably well.”

“I’ll cover those results in detail in a future article.”

And that brings me to probably the biggest misunderstanding about my investing.

People think I buy assets.

I don’t.

I buy cycles.

The Biggest Misunderstanding About Technical Analysis

When trading forex, I base my decisions on 70% technical analysis.

30% fundamentals.

When it comes to stocks, metals, and even crypto, it’s the opposite.

One part of the conversation with Robin made me smile because it’s probably the question I’ve been asked more than any other over the last twenty years.

“Do charts really work?”

My answer is always the same.

Yes (though in the 1990’s I thought it was nonsense).

But probably not for the reason most people think.

I don’t believe charts predict the future.

If they did, every technical analyst on the planet would be a billionaire.

They’re not.

Charts don’t tell me what’s going to happen.

They tell me where the probabilities begin to favour one outcome over another.

That’s a massive difference.

I often explain it like this.

If I throw a coin in the air...

It’s fifty-fifty.

But if I can suddenly tilt the odds to fifty-five per cent or more...

I’ll take that “bet” every day of the week.

That’s exactly how I view trading.

Not certainty.

Probability.

Why I Always Look Left

If you’ve ever watched one of my trading sessions, you’ll know I say the same thing over and over again.

“Look left.”

I’m amazed at how many traders never do.

They become obsessed with the latest candle.

The latest news.

The latest tweet.

I’m interested in what happened six months ago.

Or a year, or a decade ago.

Has price reacted here before?

Did institutions buy here in the past?

Did they sell here?

Did the market reverse from this level repeatedly?

Markets have memory.

People have memory.

That’s why support and resistance continue to work.

Not because they’re magical.

Because human behaviour repeats itself.

That’s why I’ve always said I don’t really study charts.

I study patterns & the herd.

Charts are simply the footprint people leave behind.

The more time I spent looking at them, the more they “talked to me.”

Why I Never Buy High or Sell Low, Breakouts

This often shocks new traders.

They’ve spent years being told...

“Buy the breakout!”

I generally don’t. I wait for the pullback.

By the time everyone can see the breakout...

More times than not, price will come back & retest the zone.

Then I can buy with a smaller stop & better risk-reward.

I’d much rather buy where fear exists.

Where uncertainty still exists.

Where institutions are quietly accumulating.

That’s exactly the same approach I’ve used in investing.

I wasn’t buying Cardano after everybody wanted it.

I wasn’t buying gold after everyone suddenly rediscovered inflation.

I wasn’t buying miners after they doubled.

I was buying them when hardly anyone cared.

The philosophy never changes.

Only the asset changes.

Five Reasons Or No Trade

If somebody joins Forex Mentor Pro tomorrow, one of the first things they’ll hear me say is, before taking an FX trade...

“Give me five reasons.”

Not one.

Not two.

Five.

If I can’t find at least five independent reasons why a trade should work...

I don’t take it.

Simple.

People often think successful traders take more trades.

In my experience...

They usually take fewer.

They’re simply far more selective.

A trend line on its own means very little.

A Fibonacci level on its own means very little.

A moving average on its own means very little.

But...

a trend line.

Plus a Fibonacci retracement.

Plus a major support level.

Plus a psychological whole number.

Plus bullish fundamentals.

Now you’ve got my attention.

Every additional piece of evidence slightly increases the probability.

My job isn’t to predict.

My job is to stack the odds.

The Trade Has To Be Worth Taking

Another rule I’ve followed for years with forex.

If I can’t realistically make at least twice what I’m risking...

I simply move on.

(With stocks, if it can’t make at least 25% to a recent high)

I don’t care how good the setup looks.

I don’t care how excited everybody else is.

If the numbers don’t work...

The trade doesn’t work.

Professional traders understand something that beginners don’t.

You don’t need a high win rate.

My 1st week of live trading back in 2003, I had a 70%+ win rate.

But I lost over $300. That went on for months.

You don’t need to trade every day.

You don’t even need to trade every week.

Sometimes the highest-paid decision you’ll make...

is doing absolutely nothing.

Stop Losses Aren’t Optional

Every Forex trade I place has a stop loss.

Every single one.

That surprises people because they assume confidence means certainty.

It doesn’t.

Confidence comes from accepting that I can be wrong.

I’ve been wrong thousands of times.

I’ll be wrong thousands more.

That’s perfectly normal.

What matters is making sure one mistake never becomes a catastrophe.

People sometimes ask why I don’t always use stop losses on longer-term investments.

The answer is because I manage those differently.

Sometimes I’ll reduce exposure.

Sometimes I’ll hedge using gold.

Sometimes I’ll use an ETF.

Different tools.

Same objective.

Protect the downside first.

The upside can look after itself.

My Best Stock Trade

Robin asked me which investment stood out over recent years.

Investors remember everything about their best :)

MicroStrategy.

Today, everybody associates it with Bitcoin.

Back in 2023...

Far fewer people understood what was happening.

The technical picture looked exceptional.

The macro picture looked exceptional.

The risk-reward made sense.

I managed to catch one of the best entries I’ve ever found.

Eventually, that position returned around 1,400%.

People hear numbers like that and assume it must have been luck.

Or genius. It wasn’t.

The same process again.

Understand the macro picture.

Wait patiently.

Let the technicals tell me when the probabilities begin shifting.

Then act.

Here’s the statement of one of my members, who got in a bit late

But banked 1000%!

That’s exactly the same framework I used for gold.

Silver.

Crypto.

Mining shares.

Different market.

Same philosophy.

The Best Investors Think Differently

One of the things I’ve noticed over the years is that the best investors don’t necessarily have the highest IQ.

They’re certainly not the people making the most noise on social media.

More often than not...

They simply think differently.

They ask different questions.

While everybody else is asking...

“What’s the next big thing?”

They’re asking...

“Why hasn’t everyone else seen this yet?”

That one question has probably been responsible for more of my successful investments than any chart pattern I’ve ever studied.

Sometimes Being Early Feels Exactly Like Being Wrong

There’s an old saying in markets.

“Being early feels exactly the same as being wrong.”

I couldn’t agree more.

People see the end result.

They don’t see the months where nothing seems to happen.

Buying gold in 2021 wasn’t exciting.

Buying mining companies certainly wasn’t exciting.

Buying Cardano at five cents wasn’t exciting.

In fact...

quite the opposite.

You often feel slightly uncomfortable.

You question yourself.

You wonder whether you’ve missed something.

That’s completely normal.

If everybody agrees with you...

You’re probably already too late.

The biggest gains rarely come from buying what everyone already wants.

They come from buying what most people haven’t yet understood.

Why The Institutions Never Bother Me

One thing I mentioned to Robin was that, back in 2020, I fully expected institutions like BlackRock and JPMorgan to change their tune with crypto.

Around that time…

Larry Fink described Bitcoin as “an index for money laundering,”

Jamie Dimon referred to BTC as a “fraud” that was “worse than tulip bulbs.”

What would change their thinking? $$$$’s

Not because they suddenly became believers.

Because eventually they would have a commercial reason to.

History repeats itself.

At first, they dismiss a new asset.

Then they tolerate it.

Eventually...

Once they can legally get their hands on it.

They package it and sell it.

The same thing happened with ETFs.

The same thing happened with cryptocurrency.

The same thing happened with many other investment themes.

People often think institutions lead markets.

I don’t.

I think they eventually join them.

Usually, after the biggest opportunities have already appeared.

That’s why I never wait for Wall Street to tell me something is a good investment.

By then...

They’ve usually already bought it.

And want your liquidity to sell it.

Politics Matters More Than Most Investors Realise

Another subject Robin and I touched on was politics.

Not because I enjoy politics.

Far from it.

Because politics increasingly moves markets.

One comment I made during the interview now seems remarkably relevant.

I mentioned that under Donald Trump, major announcements often seemed to appear over weekends.

Fast forward into 2026...

And we’ve repeatedly seen major geopolitical developments involving Iran and the Middle East announced outside normal market hours.

Again...

That wasn’t a prediction.

It was recognising behaviour.

Governments have patterns.

Politicians have patterns.

Markets react to those patterns.

I don’t spend my weekends glued to rolling news channels.

I’d much rather understand the bigger picture.

The World Changed After COVID

I genuinely believe COVID changed investing forever.

Not because of the virus itself.

Because of how governments responded.

Money printing.

Exploding debt.

Higher inflation.

Changing supply chains.

Energy security.

Artificial intelligence.

Critical minerals.

The investment landscape today looks completely different from the one I started trading thirty years ago.

The mistake many investors make is assuming yesterday’s solutions automatically solve tomorrow’s problems.

They don’t.

That’s why in late 2024 I became increasingly interested in sectors such as rare-earth metals and quantum computing.

Not because they were fashionable.

Quite the opposite.

Because I believed they represented another major cycle beginning to emerge.

The same process again.

Different sector.

Success Isn’t Complicated

Towards the end of the interview, we drifted away from markets.

Robin asked about success generally.

My answer was…

“Success isn’t complicated.

It’s difficult.

There’s a difference.”

Napoleon Hill, in his classic book “Think & Grow Rich”

spoke about successful people having a “burning desire.”

I think he was absolutely right.

Every successful period of my life has started with focus & obsession.

When my wife, kids and I left the UK with one suitcase each...

To live on an island off the coast of Africa,

We didn’t have certainty.

We had a belief (and a plan).

When I started buying crypto...

I didn’t have certainty.

I had conviction based on research.

When I started accumulating gold.

The same thing.

Mining companies.

The same thing.

Success isn’t about always being right.

It’s about having the courage to back yourself when your research tells you something the crowd hasn’t yet realised.

Time Is The Only Analyst That Never Lies

People often ask me how I feel about being called...

“Mr Spookily Accurate.”

Honestly?

I smile.

It’s flattering.

But I don’t think it’s that accurate.

I’m wrong.

Plenty of times.

I’ve bought things too early.

I’ve sold things too early.

I’ve changed my mind.

Just like every other investor.

The difference isn’t perfection.

The difference is in the process.

If your process is sound...

You don’t need to be right every time.

You simply need your winners to be significantly bigger than your losers.

That’s true in Forex.

It’s true in investing.

It’s true in business.

Time eventually judges all of us.

Not YouTube.

Not television.

Not newspapers.

Time.

Looking back at my conversation with Robin...

I don’t think it proved that I can predict the future.

I think it proved something much more valuable.

That one consistent investment philosophy can work across completely different markets.

Crypto.

Gold.

Silver.

Mining companies.

Currencies.

Technology.

Different assets.

The same framework.

Find the cycle.

Understand the fundamentals.

Wait patiently.

Manage the risk.

Then have the courage to act before everyone else finally sees what you’ve already spent months researching.

One Final Thought

If you’ve read this far, I’d like to leave you with one idea.

Stop asking...

“What should I buy?”

Start asking...

“What major change is taking place that most people are still underestimating?”

That single question has shaped almost every successful investment I’ve made over the last thirty years.

It led me into cryptocurrency.

It led me into physical gold.

Silver.

Mining companies.

Rare earth metals.

Quantum computing.

And I’m sure it will lead me into other sectors over the coming years.

Because the world never stops changing.

Neither should investors.

The crowd always arrives eventually.

The biggest opportunities rarely wait for them.

That’s why I don’t spend my life trying to predict tomorrow’s headlines.

I spend it looking for the cycle before the crowd.

If you’ve already watched the interview once, I encourage you to watch it again after reading this article.

I think you’ll hear it very differently.

🚀 Learn How I Invest In Real Markets

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The Cycle Before the Crowd

Marc Walton- Mr "spookily accurate" Trader & Investor Forex • Stocks • Metals • Miners • Crypto

By Marc Walton

👉 https://forexmentorpro.com/

I’m semi-retired now and only work with a limited number of private clients each year.

If you’re serious about becoming a consistently better trader or investor, perhaps I’ll see you inside one of my programmes.

Until then...

Stay curious.

Keep learning.

And never stop looking for the next cycle before everyone else does.

If you’ve followed my work for any length of time, you’ll know that I rarely chase headlines.

Headlines sell newspapers.

Capital flows create fortunes.

For over 30 years, I’ve found that the biggest investment opportunities don’t appear when everyone is talking about them. They appear quietly, while most investors are looking the other way.

That’s how I approached trading & investing throughout my career, and it’s exactly how I’ve approached investing since the Covid debacle.

I don’t ask, “What’s everyone buying today?”

I ask a very different question:

“Where is the smart money likely to be flowing next?”

That one question has shaped almost every major investment decision I’ve made.

Following the Money, Not the Crowd

Since 2020 we’ve witnessed one of the biggest shifts in global markets in decades.

Most investors have been jumping from one hot story to the next.

COVID.

Inflation.

Interest rates.

Artificial Intelligence.

Crypto.

Politics.

War.

Recession.

Whatever dominates the news cycle.

But underneath all the noise, something much more important has been happening.

Capital has been quietly rotating.

That’s what I spend most of my time studying.

Not today’s headlines.

Tomorrow’s opportunities.

Because by the time the headlines tell you what’s happening, much of the money has already been made.

My Investment Journey

Looking back, my own portfolio has evolved as these cycles have developed.

In 2020, I began building positions in Bitcoin and a basket of carefully selected cryptocurrencies long before they became front-page news.

Many of those investments went on to produce exceptional returns.

By 2021, however, I had become increasingly concerned about inflation, excessive money printing and the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies.

That led me to rotate a significant amount of capital into physical gold and silver.

At the time, many people questioned why I was buying what they regarded as “old-fashioned” assets.

Today, I don’t hear many people saying that.

Then came 2023.

Rather than simply owning the metals themselves, I started increasing my exposure to gold and silver mining companies.

As many of you know, some of those investments have performed exceptionally well.

Around the same period, I also began building positions in uranium and selected energy companies as the world slowly woke up to the realities of energy security and the enormous power requirements of AI infrastructure.

By late 2024, another opportunity had caught my attention.

I began building positions in quantum computing companies.

The reason was simple.

Artificial Intelligence may dominate today’s headlines, but I believe quantum computing could become one of the next transformational technologies.

The companies involved remain volatile and speculative, but that’s often exactly where the biggest opportunities begin.

Rather than waiting until everyone was talking about the sector, I wanted exposure while institutional interest was only just beginning to emerge.

Then, in early 2025, I expanded further by investing in rare earth metals and related companies.

Rare earths may not sound exciting, but they’re becoming increasingly essential to the modern world.

They’re critical for electric vehicles.

Defence systems.

Wind turbines.

Robotics.

Semiconductors.

Smartphones.

Artificial Intelligence.

In other words, many of the technologies that governments now consider strategically important simply cannot function without them.

These aren’t trades I’m looking to exit next month.

They’re long-term structural investments.

In fact, I continue adding to both my quantum computing and rare earth positions because I believe we’re still in the early stages of these investment cycles.

Silver: More Than Just a Precious Metal

Silver has also become an increasingly important part of my long-term investment thesis.

For years I’ve viewed silver as significantly undervalued relative to both gold and its growing industrial importance.

Recent developments have only strengthened that conviction.

One that particularly caught my attention was the U.S. Geological Survey’s draft 2025 Critical Minerals List.

https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/2025-draft-list-critical-minerals?

As you can see above, silver has now been added to the Elevated Risk category of America’s critical minerals assessment.

That isn’t just another government report.

It’s recognition that silver is becoming strategically important to the United States because of its role in defence, electronics, renewable energy, advanced manufacturing and next-generation technologies.

To me, that’s a significant development.

Most investors still think of silver purely as a precious metal.

I increasingly see it as both a monetary asset and a critical industrial resource.

When investment demand meets growing industrial demand while mine supply struggles to keep pace, the long-term fundamentals become increasingly compelling.

Does that guarantee higher prices?

Of course not.

Markets don’t move in straight lines.

But it certainly reinforces my existing investment thesis.

Personally, I believe silver has every chance of at least retesting its recent highs around $120 per ounce over the coming 12 months, if these structural trends continue to develop.

That doesn’t mean there won’t be volatility.

There always is.

But I continue to view periods of weakness as opportunities to accumulate rather than reasons to panic.

Why This Matters

None of these investments were random.

Crypto.

Gold.

Silver.

Mining companies.

Uranium.

Energy.

Quantum computing.

Rare earths.

Every one of them began with exactly the same question.

Where is capital likely to flow next?

Markets don’t move because television presenters become excited.

Markets move because trillions of dollars gradually migrate from one sector into another.

That’s why I spend so much time studying macroeconomics, demographics, monetary policy, geopolitics and market psychology.

Those forces create the next investment cycle.

The charts simply help me decide when to act.

The Biggest Mistake Investors Make

One of the biggest mistakes I see investors make is assuming that whatever has worked over the last five years will continue working over the next five.

History tells us otherwise.

Leadership changes.

Industries evolve.

New technologies emerge.

Old favourites fall behind.

Capital rotates.

That’s why I never become emotionally attached to any investment.

My loyalty isn’t to a stock.

Or a commodity.

Or a cryptocurrency.

My loyalty is to the cycle.

Looking Ahead

Do I think gold has finished?

No.

Do I still believe precious metals and selected mining companies have significant long-term potential?

Absolutely.

Do I think quantum computing could become one of the defining investment themes of the next decade?

I do.

Do I believe rare earth metals are becoming increasingly strategic in a world that’s demanding more electrification, AI infrastructure and defence spending?

Without question.

Will every investment work?

Of course not.

No investor gets everything right.

But if you can identify just one or two major global trends before the crowd arrives, they can transform your long-term wealth.

That’s exactly what I’ve spent the last three decades trying to do.

My Philosophy Has Never Changed

People often ask me how I’ve managed to identify so many major investment themes over the years.

The answer is actually very simple.

I don’t try to predict every short-term market move.

I try to identify major investment cycles before they become obvious.

Sometimes that’s crypto.

Sometimes it’s gold.

Sometimes it’s mining stocks.

Sometimes it’s uranium.

Sometimes it’s energy.

Sometimes it’s quantum computing.

Sometimes it’s rare earth metals.

Tomorrow it’ll be something else.

Because the next great investment opportunity usually isn’t the one everyone is talking about today.

It’s the one hardly anyone is talking about yet.

That’s where I believe the quiet money is moving.

And that’s where I want to be.

The question is...

Are you watching?

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The Cycle Before the Crowd

Marc Walton- Mr "spookily accurate" Trader & Investor Forex • Stocks • Metals • Miners • Crypto

By Marc Walton

🧠 The Edge Most Traders Miss

Most traders react.

I focus on:

• When the move starts

• Why it should happen

• Where the risk is defined

That’s the difference.

📩 Work With Me

If you want to know more about how to trade and invest for yourself, visit:

👉

https://www.forexmentorpro.com/

👉

https://yourinvestingfuture.com/

I am semi-retired now and only take on a small number of private clients each year.

If you’re serious about improving your trading and investing:

👉 https://www.forexmentorpro.com/fmp-advanced-mentor-program/

A few years ago, I was invited onto a podcast with trader and interviewer Etienne Crete.

It was my 1st Podcast, in 2023: The Camera Quality Was Terrible. The Trading Advice Wasn’t.

At the time, I didn’t even have a semi-professional studio.

I didn’t have expensive cameras.

I didn’t have fancy lighting.

In fact, looking back at it now, I should probably start with an apology for the video quality.

Let’s just say that cinematography was not my edge.

Trading was.

Despite the less-than-Hollywood production standards, something interesting happened.

The interview resonated.

To date, more than 57,000 people have watched it on YouTube, and it generated a lot of reactions, the overwhelming majority of them positive.

More importantly, many new members joined our community after watching it.

Why?

Because the interview wasn’t about Lamborghinis, private jets, or turning £500 into a million by next Tuesday.

It was about the reality of trading for a living.

The Truth Most Trading Influencers Don’t Tell You

One of the key themes of the interview was that successful trading is actually quite boring.

That might not be great for social media.

But it’s fantastic for making money.

I explained how my own trading evolved over the years.

Like many traders, I started by watching charts all day.

I traded shorter timeframes.

I spent hours glued to screens.

And I discovered something many traders eventually learn:

More screen time does not necessarily equal more profits.

In many cases, it creates the exact opposite.

The breakthrough came when I moved to higher timeframes and focused on quality rather than quantity.

Instead of chasing every market move, I started waiting for the best opportunities.

Instead of trying to trade constantly, I learned to trade selectively.

That change transformed both my results and my lifestyle.

Trading Should Support Your Life

One of the reasons the interview connected with so many people is that I wasn’t selling the dream of becoming a slave to the markets.

Quite the opposite.

I believe trading should give you freedom.

It should allow you to spend time with family.

Travel.

Pursue hobbies.

Build a life.

Not sit staring at flashing charts for 12 hours a day.

For many years, I’ve traded while travelling and living abroad.

I’ve always believed that if your trading system only works when you’re chained to a desk all day, then you’ve built yourself another job rather than a business.

Why Viewers Related To It

Reading through the comments, a common theme emerged.

People were tired of the nonsense.

Tired of unrealistic promises.

Tired of traders showing rented lifestyles and pretending every trade is a winner.

What they wanted was honesty.

The reality that trading is a skill.

That it takes time.

That losses happen.

That consistency matters far more than excitement.

And that long-term success comes from discipline rather than prediction.

Those principles aren’t particularly glamorous.

But they work.

The Unexpected Result

What surprised me most wasn’t the view count.

It was the number of people who reached out afterwards.

Many said it was the first time they had heard someone explain trading in a way that actually made sense.

Others joined Forex Mentor Pro because they appreciated hearing a trader speak openly about both the opportunities and the challenges.

No hype.

No magic indicators.

No secret algorithms.

Just practical experience from someone who has spent decades navigating the markets.

Final Thoughts

If you’ve never seen the interview, it’s worth a watch.

Just remember to be kind about the camera quality.

It was one of my first attempts at recording remotely, and let’s just say production standards have improved considerably since then.

The funny thing is that while the video quality may have been average, the message clearly wasn’t.

Because years later, tens of thousands of people have watched it, hundreds have engaged with it, and many traders still tell me it helped them see the markets differently.

Sometimes people don’t want another trading gimmick.

Sometimes they just want somebody to tell them the truth.

And that’s exactly what I tried to do.

🚀 Learn How I Do This in Real Markets

If you want to understand how I identify cycles early and execute with precision across Forex, Stocks, Metals & Crypto:

👉

https://forexmentorpro.com/

🧠 The Edge Most Traders Miss

Most traders react.

I focus on:

• When the move starts

• Why it should happen

• Where the risk is defined

That’s the difference.

📩 Work With Me

If you want to know more about how to trade & invest for yourself, check out my websites:

👉

https://www.forexmentorpro.com/

👉

https://yourinvestingfuture.com/

I am semi-retired now and can only take on a small number of private clients.

If you’re serious about improving your trading & want to manage your own investments, often better than the pro’s:

👉 https://www.forexmentorpro.com/fmp-advanced-mentor-program/

🔔 Don’t Miss the Next Opportunity

Markets move in cycles.

If you want to catch them before the crowd:

👉 Subscribe here:

The Cycle Before the Crowd

Marc Walton- Mr "spookily accurate" Trader & Investor Forex • Stocks • Metals • Miners • Crypto

By Marc Walton

It happened gradually. I have invested in gold, on and off since 2001.

I bought larger quantities of physical gold and silver in 2021.

Then I added gold and silver miners in 2022 and 2023.

By 2025 I found myself doing something I never expected: moving increasing amounts of cash into precious metals instead of leaving it in the bank.

As a result in 2025 alone my gold gained around 80%, silver 160% & some of my miners, over 300%.

This wasn’t because I expected the banking system to collapse (just yet).

It wasn’t because I was preparing for the end of the world.

It was because I had come to a simple conclusion:

Cash was no longer preserving my wealth.

The Difference Between Money and Wealth

Most people measure their wealth by looking at their overall portfolios & the balance in their bank account.

I used to do the same.

But since the year 2000 when gold has risen 1500% whilst the USD has halved I have been explaining something very important:

The number in your bank account can go up while your wealth goes down.

That may sound absurd to the uninitiated, until you understand the difference between money and purchasing power.

If inflation is running at 5% and your savings account pays 2%, you’re not making money.

You’re losing purchasing power every year.

The bank statement looks healthy.

Your wealth isn’t.

Most people focus on how many pounds, euros or dollars they have.

I focus on what those pounds, euros or dollars can actually buy.

They’re not the same thing.

Why I Started Buying Gold Again

Back in 2021, gold was trading around $1,700 per ounce.

At the time, governments and central banks had printed unprecedented amounts of money in response to the pandemic.

My view was straightforward.

You cannot create trillions of new currency units without consequences.

History is full of examples showing that when governments create money faster than they create real goods and services, the purchasing power of that currency eventually falls.

Not immediately.

Not dramatically.

But steadily.

I believed inflation would prove far more persistent than most economists expected.

So I began buying physical gold and silver & shared my plans with my clients.

Not because I expected to get rich.

Not because I was chasing quick profits.

But because I wanted to preserve purchasing power.

Adding Gold and Silver Miners

By 2022 and 2023 I began adding gold and silver mining companies.

The reason was simple.

Miners often provide leveraged exposure to precious metals.

If gold rises, well-run mining companies can sometimes rise significantly more.

Many of the miners I bought were deeply out of favour and trading at valuations that simply didn’t reflect the value of the assets they controlled.

As sentiment improved, several delivered exceptional returns.

My best performer rose more than 300% in 2025 alone.

But it’s important to understand something:

The miners were the investment.

The physical gold was the foundation.

The Realisation That Changed Everything

Then something happened. My students also started to realise

The gold kept appreciating.

The cash didn’t.

While inflation quietly eroded the value of money sitting in bank accounts, gold and silver were doing exactly what they have done throughout monetary history:

Protecting purchasing power.

Between my physical precious metals holdings and related investments, the appreciation was comfortably over 100% in 2025 alone.

At the same time, the purchasing power of cash continued to decline.

That was the moment my strategy fundamentally changed.

I recently discussed this topic in more detail on a podcast.

Here is the recording with Paul Graham of “Investors guide to Joy Podcast” where I explained my thinking, current and future strategy:

The Hidden Tax Nobody Votes For

Most people think taxes are collected by governments.

Some are.

But inflation is a tax too.

The difference is that nobody votes for it.

Nobody receives a bill.

Nobody sees the deduction.

Instead, every pound, euro and dollar simply buys a little less each year.

That’s why so many people feel poorer despite earning more.

Their bank balance may be rising.

Their purchasing power isn’t.

When you realise this, you should stop asking:

“How much cash do I have?”

And start asking:

“How much purchasing power am I preserving?”

That question changes everything.

I No Longer Think of Gold as an Investment

This is where most people misunderstand gold.

They treat it like a stock.

I don’t.

I don’t wake up wondering whether gold is going up next week.

I don’t care whether it’s up or down this month.

I don’t even care if it corrects next quarter.

Because I don’t view gold as an investment.

I view it as money.

Real money.

Money that cannot be printed.

Money that cannot be created with a keystroke.

Money that has survived every fiat currency experiment in recorded history.

Once you begin viewing gold through that lens, everything changes.

Why Gold Has Become My Bank Account

Today, I still keep enough cash available for everyday expenses and opportunities.

But increasingly, my surplus capital goes elsewhere.

It goes into physical gold and silver.

When I receive income that I don’t immediately need, I often convert part of it into precious metals.

In my mind, I haven’t spent the money.

I’ve simply moved it.

Just as previous generations stored wealth in land, businesses or gold coins, I increasingly store mine in physical precious metals.

I don’t think of gold as an investment.

I think of it as a reserve asset.

A store of purchasing power.

A form of financial insurance.

In practical terms, gold has become my savings account.

And increasingly, my bank account.

Why This Matters More Than Ever

Governments around the world are drowning in debt.

Deficits continue to grow.

Central banks remain trapped between fighting inflation and supporting economic growth.

The temptation to solve debt problems through currency debasement has never been greater.

Most people don’t realise this because they measure wealth in currency.

I measure wealth in purchasing power.

That’s a completely different game.

And once you start measuring wealth that way, the logic behind owning gold becomes much clearer.

Final Thoughts

If you’ve followed my work for any length of time, you’ll know I started buying gold around $1,700 in 2021.

Then I added silver at $17.

Then I added miners.

Then I gradually began converting more and more of my excess cash into precious metals.

None of this happened overnight.

It was a process.

A process driven by one simple observation:

The financial system rewards debtors and punishes savers.

The more governments borrow, the more currencies must eventually be debased.

The more currencies are debased, the harder it becomes to preserve purchasing power.

That’s the game I believe we’re playing.

So while most people still think of gold as an investment, I increasingly think of it as something else.

A reserve asset.

A store of purchasing power.

A form of financial insurance.

My emergency fund still sits in a bank.

My spending money still sits in a bank.

But the capital I’m trying to preserve for the next decade?

More and more of that sits in gold.

Not because I expect the world to end.

But because I expect governments to continue doing what governments have always done.

Print.

Borrow.

Spend.

And devalue their currencies.

For me, gold isn’t a trade.

It isn’t speculation.

It isn’t even an investment.

It’s where I keep my wealth.

And that’s why gold became my bank account.

🚀 Learn How I Do This in Real Markets

If you want to understand how I identify cycles early
and execute with precision across Forex, Stocks, Metals & Crypto:

👉 https://marcwalton.substack.com/
👉 https://forexmentorpro.com/

🧠 The Edge Most Traders Miss

Most traders react.

I focus on:

• When the move starts

• Why it should happen

• Where the risk is defined

That’s the difference.

📩 Work With Me

If you want to know more about how to trade & invest for yourself, check out my websites:

https://www.forexmentorpro.com/

https://yourinvestingfuture.com/

I am semi retired now & can only take on a small number of private clients.

If you’re serious about improving your trading:

👉 https://www.forexmentorpro.com/fmp-advanced-mentor-program/

🔔 Don’t Miss the Next Opportunity

Markets move in cycles.

If you want to catch them before the crowd:

👉 Subscribe here: https://marcwalton.substack.com/

If you’re interested in the bigger picture behind gold, inflation, central banks and preserving purchasing power, leave a comment below and let me know how you’re positioning your own portfolio for the years ahead.

Why I’m Becoming Increasingly Defensive While The Crowd Chases Hype

Over the past few weeks, I’ve become increasingly cautious about the broader market environment.

Not because of headlines.

Not because of politics.

But because the underlying behaviour of the markets is starting to resemble the late stages of previous speculative cycles.

And yesterday’s live training session reinforced that concern even further.

The Bond Market Is Starting To Flash Warnings

Most retail investors focus entirely on stocks.

But historically, the bond market often sees trouble first.

That’s where I’m seeing some of the biggest warning signs right now.

Liquidity conditions are becoming more fragile.

Volatility underneath the surface is increasing.

Meanwhile, stock markets remain priced for perfection.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq and many AI-related stocks continue trading at valuations that assume:

• endless growth

• endless liquidity

• and no major economic disruption

History says markets rarely stay this disconnected from reality forever.

To me, this increasingly feels like late-cycle behaviour.

The SpaceX IPO Could Become A Speculative Frenzy

One of the biggest topics from the session was the potential SpaceX IPO.

Now let me be clear:

I think SpaceX is an incredible company technologically.

But great technology does not automatically equal a great investment.

And right now, the hype surrounding SpaceX is becoming enormous.

That’s exactly when I start paying closer attention.

Some of the concerns I discussed:

• Elon Musk retaining overwhelming control

• heavily diluted shareholder voting power

• governance/accountability concerns

• massive ongoing cash burn

• huge AI and infrastructure spending

• only Starlink appearing consistently profitable

• speculative valuation expectations already building before listing

This is the kind of environment where investors stop analysing risk and start chasing narratives.

That’s dangerous.

I’m Seeing Echoes Of The Dot-Com Bubble

The similarities are becoming harder to ignore.

Back then:

• companies raised huge amounts of money

• investors chased “the future”

• profitability became secondary

• hype drove valuations

Eventually reality returned.

Painfully.

Today the narrative is AI.

Before that it was EVs.

Before that crypto mania.

The theme changes.

Human psychology doesn’t.

IPO Frenzy Is Often A Late-Cycle Signal

Historically, IPO booms tend to happen when optimism is already extreme.

I mentioned during the session how UK privatisation IPOs in the 1970s and 1980s created speculative feeding frenzies.

Everybody wanted in.

Oversubscription became a badge of honour.

And eventually many investors bought near major tops.

Could SpaceX still go higher after listing?

Of course.

But popularity and investment quality are not the same thing.

That distinction matters enormously.

My Focus Right Now: Patience, Cash & Selectivity

One thing I’ve learned after nearly 30 years in markets:

You do not need to participate in every mania.

Some of the best investing decisions are the trades you don’t take.

Right now, I’m focusing heavily on:

• patience

• risk management

• high probability entries

• cash management

• selective positioning

In the trading section of the session, I discussed an AUD setup using:

• 55 EMA structure

• MACD divergence

• minimum 1:2 risk/reward parameters

But importantly, I also explained why I’m currently favouring a more hands-off approach overall.

When markets become euphoric, discipline matters more than activity.

Why I’m Building More ETF Exposure

I also discussed plans to build a simpler ETF-based model portfolio for members.

Many investors want exposure to:

• commodities

• miners

• energy

• macro themes

…but without managing dozens of individual positions.

ETFs can offer a cleaner way to gain diversified exposure while reducing complexity.

Particularly in volatile environments.

Final Thoughts

I’m not predicting the exact day the market turns.

Nobody can do that consistently.

But I do believe we are entering a far more dangerous phase of the cycle than most people realise.

When:

• valuations become extreme

• narratives dominate logic

• IPO hype explodes

• and investors stop caring about risk…

…that’s usually when discipline matters most.

The crowd tends to become most confident near the end of the cycle.

That’s why I’m becoming increasingly defensive while everyone else becomes increasingly excited.

And in markets, that difference often matters the most.

Substack creators whom I subscribe to, recommend and used in this presentation:

https://substack.com/@themacrocompass

https://substack.com/@paretoinvestor

https://substack.com/@charliegarcia

This is a recording from my section of the weekly live training session we host at my mentor website

https://www.forexmentorpro.com/

What Do You Think?

Do you believe AI and mega-tech enthusiasm is justified?

Or are we watching another speculative bubble forming in real time?

Would you like to be invited to next week’s live training session?

Let me know in the comments.

For years, I’ve positioned ahead of the crowd.

Not reacting.
Not chasing headlines.
Not waiting for confirmation.

Positioning early — before the narrative.

Now in 2026, the largest asset manager in the world — BlackRock — has effectively confirmed what I’ve been saying & doing for years.

But here’s what most people will miss…

👉 They’re adjusting now.
I positioned years ago.

Here’s how to do this for yourself going forwards:

My Track Record (Before the Crowd)

This isn’t hindsight. This is sequencing.

• 2020 → Crypto before the explosion

• 2021 → Gold & silver before inflation hit

• 2022–2023 → Miners before the leverage cycle

• 2023 → Uranium, ai & energy before the supply shock

• 2025 → Remaining cash to gold & silver (over 100% gain).

• Rare earths before the next strategic squeeze

👉 These weren’t trades.

👉 These were cycle calls.

Each one based on the same principle:

Capital moves before the narrative. Always.

What BlackRock Just Admitted

Recent positioning from BlackRock confirms a structural shift:

• The 60/40 portfolio no longer works

• Stocks and bonds are now falling together

• They claim this is the new model that is emerging:

  • 50% equities

  • 30% bonds

  • 20% alternatives

• I don’t agree. I am currently sat 50% in cash/metals. I am actually using gold now as my “bank account.” I will share exactly what I mean next week, but it’s something you should seriously consider. As ever, not financial advice.

They’ve identified the following drivers:

• Persistent inflation (it started in 2021)!

• Geopolitical supply shocks (the last 18 months)

• Energy disruption (Iran has obviously made this much worse)

• Structural shortages across commodities (again obvious 5 years ago)?

👉 In other words:

The exact environment I’ve been positioning for since 2021.

Why This Is Such A Big Deal

The 60/40 model worked for decades because:

• Interest rates were low

• Inflation was low

• Globalisation kept costs down

• Central banks would print when things slowed

That world is gone.

Now we have:

• S&P stocks average dividends less than 2% since 2020 (1.10% now)

• Inflation- which is getting worse

• Commodity shortages

• Energy constraints & insufficient supply

• Supply chain fragmentation

• Geopolitical tension

👉 Result?

Stocks and bonds falling together.

Even if bonds rise, inflation is higher

The $ value tumbling- 27% since COVID &

spending power down over 50% since 2000.

Gold on the other hand, is +1500%!

Which means…

👉 Traditional portfolios are now structurally flawed.

The Real Insight (This Is What Matters)

This isn’t just about portfolio allocation.

It’s about timing.

BlackRock is reacting after the shift.

I positioned before it.

That’s the edge.

What Actually Works Now

In this new regime, capital has belatedly been moving into:

• Commodities

• Energy

• Precious metals

• Miners

• Uranium

• Rare earths

👉 Real assets. Scarcity. Hard value.

Not financial engineering.

The Pattern Never Changes

Every major cycle follows the same sequence:

1. Smart money accumulates quietly

2. Early signals appear

3. Prices begin to move

4. Narrative forms

5. Institutions confirm

6. Retail piles in

7. Peak, major pullback or crash follows

Right now?

👉 We are between stages 4 and 6.

If the situation in the Middle East isn’t resolved soon, we could be on the way, very quickly, to stage 7.

BlackRock’s move is confirmation — not discovery.

So, Where Does That Leave You?

Most retail investors will read this and think:

👉 “I should adjust my portfolio.”

That’s surface-level thinking.

The real takeaway is:

The cycle is already in motion.

And if you’re only reacting now…

👉 You’re already late.

My Edge

After 30 years of trading & investing in global markets, my edge is simple:

I identify cycles before they become obvious.

Not guessing.

Not predicting.

Positioning.

Based on:

• Macro shifts

• Capital flows

• Structural imbalances

• Technical confirmation for timing

That’s how you catch:

• Crypto in 2020

• Gold before inflation

• Miners before the breakout

• Uranium before the supply crisis

• Natural resources & rare earths before the next squeeze

Final Thought

BlackRock isn’t early.

They’re confirming what’s already happening.

The real question is:

👉 Will you position before the next cycle… or wait until it’s obvious?

Because by the time it’s obvious…

The real money has already been made.

The big danger is for anyone nearing retirement. In the 2008 crash, the S&P came down by over 60%. Having a “diversified portfolio” in stocks didn’t work. Almost everything tanked. It took almost 5 years to recover to the previous highs.

Gold came down over 30% but recovered within 12 months and went on a run from below $700 to $1900 +

I have been a cyclical buyer of gold and silver since the dot.com crash. I am not a perma bull like some in metals. There are long periods where it is a poor investment.

I believe that a select group of commodities have much further to run

(of course I could be wrong)

I also use developers and producers to give “leverage.” For example, gold rose by more than 70% at its peak in 2025. My best performing miner was over 300% higher.

If You Want To Learn How I Do This

Everything I’ve outlined here is exactly what I aim to teach here & inside my mentor group.

Not theory.
Not opinions.

A repeatable framework for identifying cycles early — and acting on them with precision.

👉 Follow the channel
👉 Consider joining my low-cost, 5* rated mentor group

https://www.forexmentorpro.com/

👉 Or explore working with me privately

https://www.forexmentorpro.com/fmp-advanced-mentor-program/

Marc Walton
Mr “Spookily Accurate” — Trader & Alternative Investor
Forex • Stocks • Metals • Crypto

The information contained in this article is subject to change without notice, and the author assumes no responsibility to update the information herein. All information contained herein should be independently verified with the sources and any companies mentioned. The author is not responsible for errors or omissions.

The author does not purport to tell or suggest which investment securities readers should buy or sell for themselves.

Those readers seeking direct investment advice should consult a qualified, registered, investment professional. The author is not a professional or financial advisor, and does not provide financial advice.

Readers are advised to conduct their own due diligence prior to considering buying or selling any stock or asset. The author will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by a reader’s reliance on information obtained in any of this content. It’s important to understand that investing involves risk, including loss of principal. The author is not engaged in any investor relations agreements with any of the publicly traded companies mentioned. The author does not receive compensation of any kind from any publicly traded companies that are mentioned in any of this content. The author has acquired and may trade shares of some of the companies mentioned through open market transactions and for investment purposes only. Refer to the “author’s ownership disclosure” where applicable. There may occasionally be affiliate links to companies in which the author is compensated if any of the affiliate products are purchased.

On the surface, that looks like strength.

But in reality, it creates something far more dangerous:

A commitment trap.

The Weekend That Changed the Dynamic

Over the weekend, Iran played this perfectly.

Signals of negotiation.
Movement behind the scenes.
Then — nothing.

A plane organised to carry Steve Wikoff & Jared Kushner is cancelled.

That’s not confusion.

That’s controlled disruption.

And now, almost immediately, Iran pivots:

👉 “We’re willing to do a deal.”

Most people read that as de-escalation.

It isn’t.

It’s timed leverage.

This Isn’t Just Geopolitics — It’s Personal

This situation carries a layer most people are missing:

History & Donald Trump’s consistency:

Back in 1987, Trump spent nearly $100,000 on full-page newspaper ads criticising US leadership — arguing America had been weak in how it handled global adversaries, including Iran.

“There’s nothing wrong with America’s Foreign Defence Policy that a little backbone can’t cure,” the ad’s headline blares. This was “an open letter from Donald J. Trump” -- addressed “To The American People” -- “on why America should stop paying to defend countries that can afford to defend themselves.”

“For decades, Japan and other nations have been taking advantage of the United States,” the letter declares. “The saga continues unabated as we defend the Persian Gulf, an area of only marginal significance to the United States for its oil supplies, but one upon which Japan and others are almost totally dependent.”

“Why are these nations not paying the United States for the human lives and billions of dollars we are losing to protect their interests?” Trump has reiterated the same criticisms since his first presidency.

For him to back down now will tick the box of “lack of backbone.”

That matters now.

Because for 40 years, that position has been consistent:

👉 America must project strength
👉 Weakness invites exploitation

So here’s the problem:

If the US doesn’t follow through now, it doesn’t just look like a policy shift…

It appears to be a direct contradiction of his own doctrine.

And in politics, especially in President Trump’s world, that’s the hardest thing to absorb:

Loss of face.

Why This Situation Is So Dangerous

When you combine:

• Military assets already positioned

• Public rhetoric built on strength

• A 40-year narrative of “don’t back down”

You create a scenario where:

👉 Backing down is politically harder than escalation

Even if escalation is irrational.

This is exactly the trap Iran has engineered.

Because now the US has three choices — all bad:

1. Strike Iran
   → If this happens after Iran has publicly signalled willingness to negotiate, the narrative flips
   → The US is no longer seen as strong — but as the continuing aggressor
   → This deepens fractures with allies and accelerates diplomatic isolation
   → It creates space for rivals to consolidate influence

2. Stand down
   → Contradicts decades of positioning
   → Signals weakness globally
   → Damages credibility

3. Negotiate now
   → Seen as conceding after escalation
   → Iran dictates timing

The Hidden Risk — Strategic Isolation

If the US strikes after Iran has said “we’re open to a deal,” the consequences go far beyond the Middle East.

The narrative flips instantly:

👉 From deterrence
👉 To overreach

And that has real-world consequences:

• European allies — already uneasy — begin to distance themselves

• NATO cohesion comes under further pressure

• Neutral countries shift further away from US alignment

What follows is predictable:

👉 Less diplomatic backing
👉 Less economic coordination
👉 More room for a Russia–China axis to strengthen

In simple terms:

The cost isn’t just military. It’s global positioning.

The Bigger Shift — Iran Isn’t Alone

This is no longer a two-player game.

Iran’s foreign minister has now engaged directly with Russia.

At the same time, China is watching closely — because energy is the real battlefield.

That alignment matters:

• Russia benefits from higher oil prices

• China depends on stable supply

• Iran sits in the middle

This is now a multi-polar negotiation, not a bilateral conflict.

Oil Is the Real Lever

Strip away the politics, and this is what matters:

👉 Who controls the flow of oil
👉 At what price
👉 Under what conditions

Any escalation hits:

• Shipping routes

• Insurance markets

• Global supply chains

And most importantly:

Inflation.

That’s why China is uneasy.
That’s why Russia is quietly supportive.

And that’s why Iran offering a “deal” now is not a retreat…

It’s timing.

The Game Iran Is Playing

Iran doesn’t need to win a war.

It just needs to control the sequence:

1. Provoke tension

2. Allow military buildup

3. Introduce uncertainty

4. Offer negotiation

At that moment:

👉 The side that escalated first must justify it

That’s when leverage flips.

Where This Goes Next

Watch for this pattern:

• Continued “willingness” from Iran to talk

• No meaningful de-escalation on the ground

• Quiet involvement from Russia and China

• Increasing pressure on the US to avoid conflict

This becomes a grey-zone standoff:

Not war.
Not peace.
Maximum uncertainty.

The last thing that Israel and Arab neighbours need is the chance for Iran to rebuild and start all over again.

What This Means for Markets

This isn’t just geopolitics.

This is capital flow.

If this continues:

• Energy strengthens

• Inflation pressures re-emerge

• Equities become unstable

• Hard assets gain attention

This is how cycles turn.

Not when the headlines hit…

But when positioning breaks.

Final Thought

Most people are asking:

👉 “Will there be a war?”

Wrong question.

The real question is:

👉 Can the US afford not to act — without losing face?

Because of decisions made decades ago…

Because of narratives built over 40 years…

Because of the positioning taken today…

There may be no clean exit.

And when there’s no clean exit…

Markets don’t wait.

They move first.

I am currently watching gold, silver, copper, platinum and other commodities for pullbacks to buy.

However, to complicate matters even further. Tomorrow, Wednesday, the 29th April, is supposed to be the end of the current ceasefire.

Then, after the market closes, four of the “Big 7” (Magnificent Seven) tech stocks are scheduled to report their Q1 2026 earnings results:

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

If they are all better than expected, a further move higher for the S&P?

If they are all worse, the opposite.

If they are mixed, its anyones guess!

Personally, I have gone to 35% cash in recent weeks, as per a previous post here.

For now, I am sitting on my hands. There is no need to rush for a few days.

The cycle is shifting.
The crowd just hasn’t seen it yet.

🚀 Learn How I Do This in Real Markets

If you want to understand how I identify cycles early
and execute with precision across Forex, Stocks, Metals & Crypto:

👉 https://marcwalton.substack.com/
👉 https://forexmentorpro.com/

🧠 The Edge Most Traders Miss

Most traders react.

I focus on:

• When the move starts

• Why it should happen

• Where the risk is defined

That’s the difference.

📩 Work With Me & My Team

I only take on a small number of private clients.

If you’re serious about improving your trading:

👉 https://forexmentorpro.com/

🔔 Don’t Miss the Next Opportunity

Markets move in cycles.

If you want to catch them before the crowd:

👉 Subscribe here: https://marcwalton.substack.com/

I have added a few oil & gas related stocks to my portfolio. However, since the recording I scaled out on average 20% on a lot of my portfolio to increase my cash in case of a crash……

My thesis:

The S&P, Nasdaq and stocks in general are ridiculously expensive and a “rug pull” looks imminent.

This looks like a classic top for me. The big boys are trying to suck retail investors in via F.O.MO. They will then take their profits and run.

I think that in view of the size of the USA’s military build-up in recent weeks, and a lot more in the last few days, that the ceasefire is more likely to be over & and things will probably get much worse from Tuesday evening. As ever, I could be wrong.

This is a shortened update from what I shared privately with my investing group earlier today — but it’s important enough to publish more widely.

On Friday afternoon, I recorded a video outlining my positioning.

Since then, I’ve made one key move:

👉 I’ve scaled out of roughly 20% of my portfolio across multiple positions.

Not because I’ve turned bearish on the sectors I’m in — far from it.

But because conditions right now are exactly what I look for near major turning points.

The Setup: Everything Is Overextended

Let’s be direct.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and broader equities market are stretched — not just technically, but sentiment-wise.

• Valuations are elevated

• Positioning is crowded

• Retail is being pulled back in

👉 This is how tops form.

Not with panic.

With confidence, FOMO, and late-stage participation.

What I See (And Why I Acted)

After 30 years in the markets, these are the environments I pay attention to most:

• Late buyers being drawn in aggressively

• Institutions quietly distributing into strength

• Narrative turning universally bullish

• Risk being ignored

👉 That’s not opportunity. That’s exit liquidity.

I’m not calling an exact top.

I’m saying the risk/reward has shifted materially.

The Macro Trigger Most Are Ignoring

What concerns me most right now isn’t just valuation.

It’s geopolitics.

The scale of the recent US military build-up — particularly over the last few days — suggests:

👉 The probability of escalation is rising, not falling

If the current ceasefire breaks down:

• Energy prices spike

• Risk assets reprice quickly

• Volatility returns aggressively

Timing matters.
And right now, we’re heading into a window where things could shift fast.

Positioning: What I’ve Actually Done

Here’s exactly how I’m managing this:

1. Reduced Exposure

• Scaled out of ~20% of positions

• Locked in profits across multiple trades

2. Maintained Core Positions

• Still invested in sectors I believe in

• Not trying to “go all cash”

3. Increased Defensive Allocation

• ~25% already in gold & mining stocks

• Moving toward ~35% in cash + gold combined

4. Selective Additions (High Risk)

I have added a small number of oil & gas stocks

But let me be clear:

👉 Buying here is aggressive and carries elevated risk

These are tactical, not complacent entries.

Why Cash Matters Now

This is the part most traders get wrong.

They stay fully invested…
…right until the market takes it all back.

I’m doing the opposite.

👉 I’m creating optionality.

Because if we get a meaningful pullback:

• I have liquidity

• I can deploy into weakness

• I’m not forced to react emotionally

Reality Check

Let’s be honest about this:

• I could be early

• I could be wrong

• Markets could push higher short-term

That’s fine.

Because:

👉 I still have exposure
👉 I’m not trying to be perfect
👉 I’m managing risk, not predicting headlines

The Bottom Line

I’m not exiting the market.

I’m adjusting to conditions.

Right now:

• Risk is elevated

• Sentiment is stretched

• Macro uncertainty is rising

👉 That combination demands discipline, not optimism

What Happens Next

If I’m right:

• We get a sharp repricing

• Cash becomes king

• Opportunities appear quickly

If I’m wrong:

• Markets grind higher

• I stay partially invested

• I wait for the next asymmetric setup

Final Thought

Most investors wait for confirmation.

By then, it’s too late.

👉 I prefer to act when conditions shift — not after the move.

That’s the difference between:

• Protecting capital

• And giving it back

If you want to see some of the exact positions, watch the video attached.

Credit to the following “Substackers” I read and recommend and whom I quoted in the video:

Excellent historical & military summary:

Capital Mischief

Excellent macro insights

David Jensen Metals expert

Rebound Capital

Alasdair Macleod Gold Markets expert

Important. I am NOT a licensed financial adviser in ANY jurisdiction. All my work is for educational purposes only. See the full disclaimer at the bottom of the article

🚀 Learn How I Do This in Real Markets

If you want to understand how I identify cycles early
and execute with precision across Forex, Stocks, Metals & Crypto:

👉 https://marcwalton.substack.com/
👉 https://forexmentorpro.com/
👉 https://yourinvestingfuture.com/

🧠 The Edge Most Traders Miss

Most traders react.

I focus on:

• When the move starts & when to get out

• Why it should happen

• Where the risk is defined

That’s the difference.

📩 Work With Me

I only take on a small number of private clients.

If you’re serious about improving your trading:

👉 https://forexmentorpro.com/

🔔 Don’t Miss the Next Opportunity

Markets move in cycles.

If you want to catch them before the crowd:

👉 Subscribe here: https://marcwalton.substack.com/

Disclaimer

The information contained in this newsletter is subject to change without notice, and the author assumes no responsibility to update the information contained in this newsletter. All information contained herein this newsletter should be independently verified with the sources and companies mentioned. The author is not responsible for errors or omissions. The author does not purport to tell or suggest which investment securities readers should buy or sell for themselves.

Those readers seeking direct investment advice should consult a qualified, registered, investment professional. The author is not a professional or financial advisor, and does not provide financial advice.

Readers are advised to conduct their own due diligence prior to considering buying or selling any stock. The author will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by a reader’s reliance on information obtained in any of this content.

It’s important to understand that investing involves risk, including loss of principal. The author is not engaged in any investor relations agreements with any of the publicly traded companies mentioned. The author does not receive compensation of any kind from any publicly traded companies that are mentioned in any of this content.

The author has acquired and may trade and hold shares of some of the companies mentioned through open market transactions and for investment purposes only. Refer to the “author’s ownership disclosure” where applicable. There may occasionally be affiliate links to companies in which the author is compensated if any of the affiliate products are purchased.

I first mentioned to a friend of mine in 2023 that he ought to have at least part of his portfolio in gold & silver, uranium, miners for leverage and crypto stocks.

He got busy and forgot and finally came back to me in May 2025 to ask me to help manage part of his portfolio.

He missed the tariff rebound in April when even the majors were up 25% .

He also presumed as he had missed significant profits on the afore mentioned stocks that it was too late.

For 10 years he had left some funds in a UK managed ISA (tax free account) that had not even doubled his account in that period.

I managed to achieve that in 8 months. This was made easier by the fact that we were still early for those sectors.

Only in recent weeks have the big boys, like Blackrock, started to move into these sectors with a fanfare.

I shared with my mentor group why I was buying gold around $1700 back in 2020 and silver at $17.00.

In 2022/23 I started adding miners to, in effect, give me leverage.

In 2025 everyone is aware that Gold increased by over 60% and silver (I hold twice as much) by over 170%. However some of my miners made over 300%.

In the video I show a small tax free account that I helped my friend, Andy, set up and which stocks to hold (I am NOT a licensed financial adviser in ANY jurisdiction).

We also replicated this on a larger account and bought physical gold and silver. This helped to hedge some of the crypto he also invested in for the first time.

In the larger account it was almost a duplicate of mine. On top of the afore mentioned I am invested in some AI, quite a lot of uranium, smaller amouts in rare earth and quantum computing stocks.

Check out the video at the end of this article to see what stocks I was holding and the performance.

The bottom line is that by catching the cycles early my follwoers and i have been able to make significant profits with a mix of trading and buy and hold.

Most traders talk.

I show results.

This stock account did:

👉 +100% in 8 months

Not demo.
Not hindsight.
Not cherry-picked.

Real trades. Real capital. Real outcome. In early on gold, silver, uranium, crypto and

Now Here’s The Part That Matters

I told him (my mate Andy) to take profits.

He didn’t. He likes to take risks, but I explained this was silly.

He agreed to pay my fee anyway ( I am NOT a licensed financial adviser anywhere, I mentor people how to do this for themselves)

Where It Stood When I Recorded This a few weeks later

Even after the pullback:

👉 +86%

Still exceptional.

But that’s not the point.

This Is Where Most Retail Traders/investors Fail

Doubling an account isn’t the hard part.

Keeping it is.

Because when you’re up big:

• Greed kicks in

• Conviction turns into stubbornness

• “Just a bit more” replaces discipline

And that’s how:

👉 +100% becomes +50%
👉 Then +20%
👉 Then it’s gone

The Difference

Anyone can catch a move in the right market. (OK not everyone :)

Very few know:

👉 When the cycle is nearing the end or a pullback is due

That’s the edge.

Not just getting in early—

Getting out before the crowd realises it’s over.

My Approach (Why This Happens)

I don’t guess. I plan in advance, the entry, target and exit

I track:

• Cycles

• Capital flows

• Momentum exhaustion

• Crowd behaviour

And when those shift—

👉 I take at least some of the money off the table

No emotion. No hesitation.

Proof (Watch It Yourself)

Here’s the video recorded a couple of weeks later on the 27th February 2026.

👉

Final Reality Check

Most traders spend years trying to:

👉 Double an account

Almost none learn how to:

👉 Protect it once they do

That’s why they stay stuck.

If you want to learn how I spot cycles before the crowd—and more importantly, how I exit them—

That’s exactly what I teach inside

https://www.forexmentorpro.com/

& specifically for stocks: https://yourinvestingfuture.com/

Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading forex, crypto, and stocks involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions. We are not responsible for any losses incurred.

I failed maths three times at school.

I also have dyspraxia, which makes numbers harder for me to process.

Yet I’ve spent the past 3 decades trading global financial markets and mentoring traders around the world.

Which raises an interesting question…

If trading is about numbers, how is that possible?

Because the truth is:

For me, trading has very little to do with mathematics.

It has everything to do with repeatable patterns, a reliable, step by step strategy,
risk management, structure, clear rules, discipline psychology,

My Accidental Start in Trading

Back in the early 2000s my family & I moved to Lanzarote in the Canary Islands.

I had sold my business, semi-retired at 40 and spent a few years playing guitar in a band and enjoying life.

But something unexpected happened.

When you retire early…
you often spend far more money than you planned.

So I started looking for ways to make money online.

That’s when I stumbled across forex trading.

Back then it wasn’t widely known. Retail platforms were new and very few people understood how the markets worked.

But the idea fascinated me.

Global currencies moving every day. Opportunities around the clock.

And the possibility of building income from anywhere in the world.

So I started learning.

And like most traders…

I made every mistake possible.

The Mistakes Almost Every Trader Makes

If you’re new to trading, chances are you’ll recognise these:

• Thinking it looks easy
• Not treating it like a business
• Over-trading
• Not using a stop loss
• Not paying attention to news
• Revenge trading
• Risking too much/no risk management
• Letting losses run
• Closing winners too early
• Jumping between strategies
• Lack of patience & discipline

I could go on.

These are not technical problems.

They are a failure to treat trading as a business. Throw in psychological issues and its a toxic mix.

For years I would have months where things went well—sometimes making 3–5% per month consistently.

Then one bad week would wipe out a large portion of those gains.

The market wasn’t the problem.

My behaviour was.

The Most Dangerous Moment in Trading

Ironically, one of the most dangerous points in a trader’s journey is early success.

I’ve seen traders come to me for help after:

Turning $1,000 into $75,000 in a few months.

Doubling their account several times.

Quiting their jobs.

Then losing everything.

Why?

Because early success often leads to overconfidence and excessive risk.

The markets are incredibly effective at humbling people.

The Biggest Lie About Trading

Social media portrays trading as exciting.

Fast.

Adrenaline-filled.

But profitable trading is actually the opposite.

It’s boring.

Good trading consists of:

• Planning trades in advance
• Waiting patiently
• Managing risk carefully
• Following a structured system

That’s it.

The traders who succeed are not the most aggressive.

They are the ones who are calm, consistent, and disciplined.

What My Trading Week Actually Looks Like

People often imagine traders glued to charts all day.

That’s not how I work.

Most of my analysis happens on weekends, especially on Sundays when markets are closed.

It’s the best time to review charts because:

• Nothing is moving
• Emotions are removed
• You can think clearly

From there I simply make a plan and wait for opportunities to come to me during the week.

If one market looks chaotic, I’ll look elsewhere.

Forex.
Indices.
Commodities.
Metals.
Crypto.
Stocks.

If nothing is clear I walk away and save my money for another day.

My philosophy is simple:

I don’t care what market I trade.
I care about finding high-probability opportunities.

The Simpler Your Charts, The Better

Another common mistake traders make is over-complicating everything.

Charts full of indicators.

Signals everywhere.

Confusion.

In reality, markets often respect simple structural levels like:

• Support and resistance, in all its forms
• Trend structure
• Key levels
• Fibonacci

Understanding price behaviour around these areas is far more valuable than stacking dozens of indicators on a chart.

Trading Isn’t Just About Money

One of my longest-standing clients is 85 years old and still actively trading.

For him it’s not just about profit.

It’s about keeping the mind active.

Decades ago people might retire at 65 and only live a few years beyond that.

Today many people live into their 80s and 90s.

That means retirement could last 20–30 years.

Having something intellectually stimulating—like analysing markets—can be incredibly valuable. I considered retiring last year and was bored within a few months.

Why I Teach Trading

Over time people started asking if I could teach them what I had learned.

That eventually became Forex Mentor Pro.

But teaching trading isn’t really about strategies.

It’s about helping people develop:

• Financial awareness
• Realistic expectations
• Understanding of how markets work
• A business plan
• Clear rules & sticking to them
• Patience
• Risk awareness
• Discipline
• Psyhological awareness

Trading done correctly is not gambling. It’s a structured skill.

In my early years (like many retail traders) I had all the habits of a bad gambler.
Ironically I have zero interest in gambling.

The One Lesson That Matters Most

If there’s one thing I’ve learned after three decades in the markets, it’s this:

Focus on mastering the process.

Not the money.

When you master the process:

• The money follows
• The stress reduces
• Consistency improves

But if you chase the money first…

The markets will almost certainly punish you.

Final Thought

Trading has given me something incredibly valuable:

Freedom.

The ability to live where I want, structure my time, and work with people around the world.

Today I’m based in Portugal, trading global markets and mentoring a small number of traders each year. Previously I lived in the sun-kissed Canary Islands for 20 years.

But none of it happened overnight.

It took years of mistakes, discipline, and learning.

And that’s the reality most people never see on social media.

If you want to learn how I approach markets:

👉 Follow here on Substack
👉 https://forexmentorpro.com/

Marc Walton
Mr “Spookily Accurate”
Trader & Alternative Investor
Forex • Stocks • Metals • Miners • Crypto

https://forexmentorpro.com/

The step by step process I teach private clients ¬ members. No teasing, nothing held back.

Since 2008 I’ve mentored 1000’s of retail traders (and some retired professionals) who have paid me to teach them how I analyse and trade the markets.

The five webinars below form the core of that education.

In this series I walk through the exact framework I use to trade — the same principles I teach my private students — covering market structure, trade selection, risk management and the psychology required to execute consistently.

Although the examples often focus on forex, the technical analysis principles I use apply across all markets.

I use the same approach when analysing stocks, metals, miners and crypto, because the underlying behaviour of markets and human psychology remains remarkably consistent.

The main difference being that with forex I use 70% technical analysis and 30% fundamentals. The opposite mix for everything else.

These sessions are designed to show the thinking process behind professional trading: how to simplify charts, identify high-probability opportunities, and avoid the common mistakes that cause most traders to struggle.

As I continue building this channel, I’ll also be adding more educational tips, trading tricks, real market examples and practical insights to help traders improve their decision-making and develop a consistent approach to the markets.

If you’re serious about learning how experienced traders analyse markets, this series is a good place to start.

Marc Walton Trader & Alternative Investor Forex • Stocks • Metals • Miners • Crypto

You can find further free course materials here:

https://www.forexmentorpro.com/blog/free-forex-training-course/

Over the past few decades trading forex, stocks, metals, miners and crypto, I’ve refined a framework designed to simplify market analysis and focus only on high-probability opportunities. In this webinar — the first of a five-part series — I begin walking through the foundations of that approach.

This series covers the principles many traders overlook:

• Why most traders overcomplicate market analysis

• How simplifying charts allows the important signals to stand out

• The concept of stacking multiple technical reasons before entering a trade

• Why patience and discipline are often the biggest trading edge

This session lays the groundwork for the rest of the series. In the next four webinars I’ll go deeper into the exact structure of the strategy, including the technical checklist I use before entering trades, the psychology required to execute consistently, and how multiple signals combine to produce high-probability setups. If you’ve ever wondered how experienced traders actually approach markets, this series will show you the process step by step. (Video below)

Marc Walton Trader & Alternative Investor Forex • Stocks • Metals • Miners • Crypto

Learn more at https://forexmentorpro.com

• Tipsters/ “Guru’s”

• FOMO

• News

• Emotion

• Signals

• Indicators

• Social media trends/friends “hot tips”

Their biggest weakness? We all suffer from it periodically...

• Emotions

• Buying something because it’s cheap or recommended

• Panic selling

• Cutting winners short/hanging on to losers (hope is not a strategy)!

• Lack of balance within their portfolio (too much in one sector)

• Lack of a clear plan and structure

But after 30 years trading global markets, I’ve learned this:

Study how to do this for yourself. It’s not as complicated as Wall Street wants you to believe.

A little education goes a long way.

As Mr Buffet said “The more you learn, the more you earn”

My Edge (And Why It Works)

I don’t approach every market the same way.

Because not all markets behave the same way.

Forex (70% Technical / 30% Fundamental)

Currencies are highly liquid, efficient, and driven by flows.

So my edge comes from:

• Market structure

• Key levels

• Confluence

• Repeatable patterns

• Some fundamental knowledge

• Timing, precision & patience

• Good risk reward (absolute minimum 1>2)

• Strict rules & discipline

In forex, I primarily trade technically, using fundamentals as context.

Everything Else (70% Fundamental / 30% Technical)

The majority are “buy & hold” but getting in early in the cycle or a bargain on a pullback using my technical skills is my “edge”

• Stocks- started in the dotcom boom, made lots gave too much back, lesson learned

• Perfect example of a recent 70/30% buy: MSTR 2023 +1400%

• Gold in 2003, again in 2009 to 2012, 2018 & 2021- 2026

• Silver- 2021-2026

• Miners- give a form of leverage 2022/2023 - 2026

• Uranium including miners 2022/3 -2026

• Crypto- February 2020 just before Covid crash!

These markets move based on underlying shifts & news:

• Profits & potential future growth

• Supply & demand (uranium, silver currently)

• Technology

• Capital flows

• Inflation & interest rates

• Economic uncertainty & Sentiment

Here, I identify the opportunity fundamentally first, then use technicals to execute with precision

Real Examples (I will share proof in subsequent posts)

Crypto (2019–2020)

I retired from trading forex for clients late 2019.

Crypto re-energised me and I made more profit in 9 months than the S&P in 30 years AND I took out my initial stake & profits.

In 2019 I spent months studying blockchain technology.

It finally became clear to me:

Crypto would reshape finance- I was slow here :(

That gave me conviction. Criteria: Each project had to have a real reason to exist.

Had to be faster, or smarter, cheaper, revolutionary and most of all being used.

Then I applied technical execution:

• Built positions in Bitcoin starting at $8130, ETH $180

• + 20 other tokens including XRP, ADA,

• Rotated from Alts to BTC & ETH

• Put profit on smaller tokens into BTC, ETH & Gold

Best performer: 6000% in 9 months
Portfolio: 1000%+ overall

But the key:

• I shared with followers; I removed the initial stake ASAP

• Took profits into strength (dotcom lesson learned)

• Then let the balance run

• Taking significant profits along the way

• Re-entered on pullbacks

• When the crash came the balance was paid for

• Back in on limited number in 2023, 2024 & had some huge wins in 2025

Gold (2021)

After COVID: “Joined the dots”...

• Massive money printing

• Currency debasement risk

• Inflation / hyperinflation/stagflation potential

• Possible financial crash

That pointed to one asset:

Gold.

So I started sharing why I was buying:

• Gold ~ starting at $1700

• Silver ~ $22 same reason, also supply & demand issue

• Miners even bigger gains since 2023

Again:

Idea = fundamental
Execution = technical

My Core Investing Principle

“Join the dots” - assess what is likely to be the next big cycle and WHY- start accumulating

Find the opportunity first (fundamentals)
Then execute with precision (technicals)
Uranium & miners since 2023- great example: demand for energy surging.

Cleanest, cheapest fuel is nuclear. Limited supply and takes at least 10 years/Billion$ to open a new mine. Ergo limited supply.

My Framework

Step 1 — Identify the Opportunity

• Macro shifts

• Policy changes eg Rare Earths in 2025

• Structural trends

• Changes to supply & demand

Step 2 — Execute the Trade or Investment

• Key levels

• EMA alignment

• Fibonacci zones

• Risk/reward Forex ≥ 1:2

• Stocks: Only if I feel I can make at least 25% in a relatively short period

• Crypto: Minimum 35% (technically)

I MUST have multiple reasons before entering any trade or purchase.

The Lesson

Trading & especially investing for me, isn’t just about finding setups.

It’s about understanding:

Where the next major move is likely to come from

…and getting positioned before the crowd sees it.

Final Thought

Every major move starts the same way:

Quiet.
Relatively unnoticed.
Early.

By the time it’s obvious…

It’s already too late for the biggest gains.

If you want to learn how I approach markets using this framework:

Follow here on Substack

https://forexmentorpro.com/

Marc Walton
Mr “Spookily Accurate”
Trader & Alternative Investor
Forex • Stocks • Metals • Miners • Crypto

One of the biggest mistakes traders make is entering the market with only one reason — perhaps a trendline, an indicator signal, or a news event. Professional traders rarely trade like that. Instead, the focus is on stacking multiple technical reasons so that probability starts working in your favour.

In this webinar I explain the concept I call “five reasons to trade.” Before I enter any position, I want to see a confluence of signals — technical factors aligning in the same direction. If those conditions are not present, the trade is simply ignored.

This session covers:

• Why trading with only one signal dramatically lowers your odds

• How to build a simple but powerful trade checklist

• The key technical factors that create high-probability setups

• Why discipline and patience matter more than trading frequency

• How a structured process removes emotional decision-making

For many traders, this idea alone — requiring multiple technical confirmations before taking a trade — can transform results. Because trading success rarely comes from finding more trades. It comes from filtering out the bad ones. (Video below)

Marc Walton Trader & Alternative Investor Forex • Stocks • Metals • Miners • Crypto

Learn more at https://forexmentorpro.com

They lose because they take trades without enough reasons.

In Part 3 of this series, I break down the real edge I’ve used for years:

I don’t just trade setups — I trade confluence.

This session isn’t about adding more indicators.

It’s about building a structured decision-making process that filters out low-quality trades and focuses only on high-probability opportunities.

The Shift That Changes Everything

Most traders ask:

• “Does this look like a trade?”

I ask:

• “How many reasons do I have to take this trade?”

That one shift is the difference between:

• Random results

• And consistent performance

My Rule: Minimum 5 Reasons

I use a very simple rule:

If I don’t have at least 5 reasons — I don’t have a trade.

These reasons aren’t random.

They must come from proven technical factors that align together.

The 5 Core Technical Drivers I Use

1. Trend Alignment (My Foundation)

I use:

• 200 EMA + 55 EMA across higher timeframes

This tells me the direction and major areas probably will react either for pullbacks to enter or targets.

I’m not trying to predict the market — I’m aligning with it.

2. Key Levels (Where Trades Actually Happen)

I focus on:

• Support & resistance in all its forms

• The 2 EMAS

• Trendlines

• Horizontal support & resistance

• Fibonacci

• Double Tops & bottoms

• Correlation

• Risk Reward

• ETC

These are the areas where real money is positioned.

3. Fibonacci Zones (Precision Within the Trend)

I keep this simple and focused. Only longer timeframes I only focus on:

• 50%

• 61.8%

• 78.6%

These are the only levels I care about — where I expect pullbacks to complete.

4. Confirmation (Timing My Entry)

Before I enter a trade, I want confirmation. Any of points 2 above, plus :

• MACD divergence

• Daily range

• Clear rejection from levels

• Fundamental bias, pro or anti USD

This helps keep me out of weak or early entries.

5. Risk-to-Reward (My Edge Over Time)

Every trade must meet:

• Minimum 1:2 risk-to-reward

For example:

• Risk 50 pips → Target 100 pips

This is what allows me to stay profitable — even when I’m wrong.

What This Process Does

When I combine these factors:

• I trade less

• I trade better

• I remove emotion from decisions

I stop guessing — and start executing a process.

The Real Lesson from This Session

This isn’t about indicators.

It’s about discipline.

Most traders fail because:

• They act on 1–2 reasons

• They chase price

• They ignore risk

Before I take any trade, I run through my checklist:

• Do I have trend alignment?

• Am I at a key level?

• Is there confluence?

• Do I have confirmation?

• Does the risk/reward make sense?

If the answer isn’t clear:

I don’t trade.

Final Thought

This is the exact framework I use across:

• Forex

• Stocks

• Metals

• Crypto

It’s also exactly what I teach my private students.

Simple. Repeatable. Proven.

The goal isn’t more trades — it’s better trades.

By this point in the series, you’ve seen the tools.

Now I want to show you something far more important:

How I actually use them — every single day.

Because this is where most traders struggle.

They learn strategies…
But they don’t have a process.

In this session, I walk you through my exact daily routine — the same one I’ve used for years — and the same approach I teach my private students.

And here’s the key:

It’s simple, structured, and it doesn’t take all day.

In fact, my routine typically takes around 30 minutes.

Why Most Traders Stay Stuck

Most traders overcomplicate things.

• Too many charts

• Too many indicators

• Too much screen time

• Too much adrenaline & emotion

And yet… no consistency.

The problem isn’t effort.

It’s lack of structure.

My Daily Trading Routine (Step-by-Step)

1. Start With the Higher Timeframes

I begin with:

• Monthly

• Weekly

• Daily

I’m asking one simple question:

What is the market doing overall?

Using:

• 200 EMA

• 55 EMA

This gives me directional bias.

I’m not guessing — I’m aligning with the bigger picture.

2. Mark Key Levels

Next, I identify where price matters most:

• Support & resistance in all its forms as covered in detail in the 3rd webinar
  

• These are the areas where I expect decisions to be made in the market.

3. Look for Confluence Zones

Now I combine:

• Trends

• Levels

• Fibonacci (50%, 61.8%, 78.6%)

This is where trades start to take shape.

I’m not looking for trades — I’m building them.

4. Drop Down for Entry Timing

Once I have a strong area, wherever possible I place forward orders and wait for price to come to me. Sometimes I might lower, perhaps after a news announcement:

• H4

• Very rarely, even lower for confirmation

Here I look for:

• Rejection

• Structure

• Confirmation signals

This is where I decide:

Do I actually place the trade — or leave it alone?

5. Apply My “5 Reasons” Rule

Before I enter anything, I check:

• My favourite 00 & 55 EMA levels

• Do I have trend alignment?

• Am I at a key level?

• Do I have Fibonacci confluence?

• Do I have confirmation?

• Does the risk/reward make sense?

If I don’t have at least 5 reasons:

I don’t trade.

6. Set and Walk Away

This is where most traders go wrong.

Once I’m in:

• Trade is planned

• Risk is defined

• Target is set

And then:

I leave it alone.

No over-management.
No emotional interference.

What This Routine Really Gives You

This isn’t just about saving time.

It’s about:

• Clarity

• Consistency

• Control

When you follow a process like this:

• You stop forcing trades

• You stop chasing the market

• You start thinking like a professional

You move from chaos… to structure.

The Real Takeaway

Most traders are looking for a better strategy.

What they actually need is:

A repeatable routine.

Because success in trading isn’t about doing something occasionally.

It’s about doing the right things, consistently.

Final Thought

This is the exact routine I use across all markets.

With Fx trading I use 70% technical analysis and 30% fundamental. The opposite ratio for everything else

• Forex

• Stocks

• Metals

• Crypto

It’s simple. It’s efficient. And it works.

You don’t need more time in the market — you need a better process.you

Psychology almost killed my trading career. If I hadnt been fortunate enough to find and hire Rich, I would have had to consider moving back from Lanzarote, to live in the UK which would have devastated my family and me. During the session we discuss many of the common psychological patterns that appear in traders — often without them even realizing it. These include (I did ALL of these at various points on the journey) to become a successful trader & investor: • Over-trading and the urge to always be in the market • Revenge trading after a losing position • Fear of pulling the trigger on valid setups • Letting losing trades run while cutting winners too early

• Jumping from system to system searching for the “perfect strategy”

These behaviours are extremely common, and many traders repeat the same mistakes for years before recognising the pattern. One of the most important insights from this discussion is that successful trading requires self-awareness and structure. Professional traders rely on rules, checklists and disciplined routines to prevent emotions from influencing their decisions. In other words, the strategy matters — but the trader’s mindset matters just as much.

Rich pushed me away from 15 minute charts where he correctly assessed I had become an “adrenalin fuelled gambler” to trading longer timeframes. This simple act meant that I now would plan the trades in advance and let price come to me. This final session ties the entire series together by showing how technical skill and psychological discipline must work together to produce consistent results.

Marc Walton Trader & Alternative Investor Forex • Stocks • Metals • Miners • Crypto

Learn more at https://forexmentorpro.com