Asset Performance

Cross-Asset Performance — Week-to-Date, August 21, 2026

Last week delivered one of the most extreme cross-asset divergences of the year. Bitcoin exploded higher by +22.59% — an extraordinary single-week move that dwarfs every other asset class and signals either a major structural catalyst or a violent short squeeze, worth investigating further before extrapolating. Precious metals also had a strong week, with silver gaining +7.25% and gold adding +5.45%, reflecting a powerful safe-haven and inflation-hedge bid running in parallel with the crypto rally — an unusual combination that suggests genuine risk-off positioning rather than pure speculative mania.

US equities told the opposite story entirely. The NASDAQ 100 led losses at -2.45%, with Russell 2000 down -1.65% and the S&P 500 off -1.43%, marking a broad-based equity retreat across market caps. Fixed income and cash were essentially flat, with Treasuries down marginally at -0.04%.

The week’s clear takeaway: capital rotated decisively out of US equities and into alternative and hard assets, with Bitcoin absorbing an outsized share of that flow.

On YTD basis, Bitcoin has still a lot of catching up to do. In stocks, Small caps are the clear winner. Gold has positioned itself nicely.

Global Equity Indices Performance

With the exception of Hong Kong and UK, all major equity indices closed in the red last week.

India

India’s dynamic market saw a little improvement in the Bank Nifty and Nifty Midcap, the rest all in the Red. India’s market has been in the bear territory and range bound since September 2024.

Sectors and ETFs Performance

Sectors and ETFs present a picture of rotation taking place in the marketplace. Tech sold off and was the weakest performer last week. Health Care, Energy and the Base Materials were the sectors that saw money move into.

Tech selling hit the semi-conductors mostly and the cloud computing scalers were down modestly.

Treasury - Fixed Income

US Treasury has been operating in the Treasury market and supporting the 10 Year Treasury yield. The regime has now changed from the ‘Bear Flattener’ to ‘ Range Bound’. In last one month, the long bond yields have seen the higher delta i.e. up +10 basis points.

British GILTs yield the highest amongst the developed world. The inflation situation in the UK tells a story here.

Fed’s next FOMC is in September. About a 20% chance of a rate hike at the moment and if it comes, it is likely to be 25 bps.

Markets

SPX - S&P 500 Cash

SPX reached our target of $7800. Now, the question is what happens next. Based on the 10 year technical pattern charts discussed a couple of months ago, the year 2026 is likely to end higher.

However, what we have to watch for is a possible 10% correction that could occur and bring the market down to around the 6900 level. This will be a 50% retracement off the 30th March lows.

However, if the market remains strong and pushes beyond the $7800 level, the psychological level of $8000 will be in play.

NDX - Nasdaq 100 Cash

Interesting to see Nasdaq remained above the channel which acted as resistance and now support. As the market goes through the sector rotation due to the inflation expectations, we could see Nasdaq 100 trade sideways and could possibly in the CD leg lower to possibly around 26,400.

US Dollar

US dollar has remained under pressue on the failure to close above the 101.35 level. Now, it retraced 50% of the move and is at a market symmetry support. We could see the dollar trade sideways to higher next week.

COMEX Gold

Gold foudn support from the $3960/oz level that we had identified as strong support and now appears to be heading for the $4800/oz level. The correction in Gold appears to be complete. A retracement would be healthy.

Subscribers from the beginning of the year and last year will know that we had roughly the $7200-$7600 as our target. We might have to revisit and revise the target, however, longer term Gold is poised to move much higher.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin had an incredible week last week and was up +22%. We had the downside target of around $56000 to $52000 and the coin came very close to it. Closing above the $83K level will be very positive for the bulls as it will be the close above the swing high.

Select Stocks

GOOG

The month of July and August have not been that great for GOOG as the market went side ways. However, I am watching the 335 level carefully as it is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for a possible leg higher.

Newmont Corp

As the Gold prices rise, we have seen an incredible move in some of the Gold miners. Newmont approaching new time highs.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc

Last year CMG completed an important pattern formation highlighted in the green shaded region. However, the market has been sideways. Keep watching the market for breakout of the range above $40/share level.

Albemarle Corporation

Base material sector has seen money flow into. ALB stock we had discussed before and after reaching out target, the stock retraced 61.8%. As long as it remains above the $113/share above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, it is likely in the CD leg higher which could lead to a new ATH.

Mosaic Company

I wanted to bring stock to add to your watch list. I am waiting for more price action, however, after a big decline, this market is now sitting at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and last week was an outside week bar.

Target Corp

It had a massive retracement to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a nice recovery in motion. Keep on watching the 181 level as the retracement.

Disclaimer

This publication is produced for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this article, including the written commentary, charts, images, data, and any internal or external links, constitutes financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other form of professional financial guidance.

The content reflects the author’s analysis of publicly available market data and is shared solely to inform and educate. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Markets can and do move against any position or analysis presented here.

You should always conduct your own independent research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from your use of, or reliance on, the information contained in this publication.

Asset Performance

As the month of July 2026 concluded, lets take this opportunity and also look at the longer term monthly data and charts.

Bitcoin was the best performer for the asset classes we track and Gold was the runner up, however, Silver closed negative for the month. Both stocks and longer duration bonds returned negative for the month.

Last week did see a rebound in the equities and both the broader S&P 500 and the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 closed higher for the week in a positive sign. Gold and longer dated treasuries were pretty much unchanged for the week. Bitcoin was the worst performer, despite this, Bitcoin closed the month higher.

Global Equity Indices Performance

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was the best performing stock market last month in July and the worst performer was the South Korea’s KOPSI as semiconductors sold off. European markets performed better than the US counterparts.

On weekly basis, Hang Seng performed well again and also India’s Sensex was up +2.68% last week.

India’s market showed signs of life last July. With the exception of Nifty bank, all other indices closed in the positive.

Sectors and ETFs Performance

Energy was the strongest sector last July and Technology was the weakest. Financials were the runner up to the top stop followed by Healthcare. These are the two sectors I will be keeping an eye on for the remainder of 2026.

Weekly performance show consumer discretionary gaining last week

Cloud computing and Software gained last month whilst semiconductors sold off. Within Tech Cloud computing and software will be the two sectors that I will be keeping eye on for the remainder of 2026.

Macro Economics

Labour Market — Unemployment Complex

The U-3 headline unemployment rate misses two important groups. U-6 adds: (1) marginally attached workers who want a job but have stopped searching; and (2) those working part-time involuntarily. The amber shading between U-3 and U-6 is hidden slack — wider shading means more workers are underemployed than the headline shows. The Sahm Rule (lower panel) is a near-perfect mechanical recession nowcaster: when the 3-month average of U-3 rises 0.50 percentage points above its prior 12-month low, the US has historically always been in or entering recession — a 100% hit rate since 1970. WATCH FOR: U-6 rising faster than U-3 (widening spread) = quality deterioration before the headline worsens. Sahm Rule crossing 0.50 = act, not wait. The current Sahm reading is annotated on the chart. No recession signs.

Labour Market — Breadth Indicators

WHAT IT SHOWS: These three indicators cut beneath the headline unemployment rate to reveal the true breadth of labour market health.

Long-term unemployed (27+ weeks, millions): elevated levels signal structural dislocation rather than cyclical layoffs — these workers are harder to re-employ and more likely to permanently leave the workforce. Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR): the percentage of the working-age population either employed or actively seeking work — it peaked around 67% in 2000 and has structurally declined partly due to an ageing population and partly due to discouraged workers. Employment-Population Ratio (E/P): sidesteps LFPR definition issues entirely — simply the percentage of the total population that is employed. WATCH FOR: When U-3 is stable but LFPR and E/P are falling, people are leaving the labour force rather than finding jobs — the headline improvement is misleading. True recovery requires all three trending upward together.

The below charts indicate that beneath the surface the labour market weakness is brewing but not to a level which could indicate a recession probability as of yet.

Debt Stress

Debt Stress — Consumer Debt Levels

WHAT IT SHOWS: American households carry three primary debt stacks. Revolving credit (primarily credit cards, amber) represents the most expensive and volatile component — rates now exceed 20% on standard accounts and 25-30% once penalties and fees are included.

Non-revolving credit (blue) covers auto loans and student loans — fixed-term, typically lower-rate, but increasingly stretched as vehicle prices and loan terms lengthened. Mortgage debt (lower panel) is the largest category at over $12 trillion; unlike consumer credit it is largely locked in at pre-rate-hike terms.

Borrowing to acquire an asset or invest in a business (productive) versus borrowing to pay for groceries and utilities (survival). The sustained rise in revolving credit during a period of elevated inflation is the fingerprint of survival borrowing. Revolving credit accelerating faster than income growth signals households plugging an income gap rather than financing consumption choice.

Debt Stress — Debt Service Burden

Debt service ratios measure how much of every dollar of disposable income is consumed by mandatory debt payments before any discretionary spending takes place. This is the most direct measure of household financial strain. Total Debt Service (TDSP) peaked at ~13.2% before the 2008 financial crisis, then fell sharply as households deleveraged and mortgage rates dropped to historic lows. The pre-GFC peak serves as the warning threshold — readings approaching 13% indicate debt loads that have historically preceded recessions and credit events. Consumer Debt Service (CDSP) isolates non-mortgage obligations: credit cards and installment loans. With credit card rates at 20%+, even modest balances generate disproportionate service costs.

TDSP rising persistently is a leading indicator of consumer stress. When households spend more than 13% of income on debt service, discretionary spending contracts — historically the precursor to both retail sales weakness and rising delinquencies.

Debt Stress — Credit Card Delinquency Rate

We had seen a rise in the credit card deluquencies, however, these are coming below the elevated threshold level of 3%.

Debt Stress — Mortgage & Consumer Loan Delinquency Rates

Single family mortgage delinquency rate is well below the 3% elevated threshold.

Consumer loan delinquency rate did spike after covid and is above the 2.5% elevated threshold we are watching, however, more recently it did seem to have peaked and moved a bit lower.

The real disposable income when compared with the inflation is under stress as can be seen by the red shaded region showing the real purchasing power loss. This indicated Fed is likely to stubbornly get rid of the inflation and we could see a rate hike in the September meeting of FOMC.

The below chart shows the personal savings buffer of households to cater for shocks and emergencies. It shows more families have been dipping into the savings as inflation remains persistent. This together with the real loss of disposable income is not a good sign. Inflation must come down.

Below is a schematic that I like to take a look at as per my models tracking many macro signals. There are pockets which are elevated and flagging an amber signal, however, with regards to the debt stress of households, majority of the things remain in good shape.

Overall, from the jobs stress and the household debt stress, there are no recession signals flashing.

Treasury - Fixed Income

Last week, the long duration sold and short duration performed better.

10 Year GILTS remain the highest yielding in the developed world followed by the US 10 Year note. Most important to watch is the yield on the 10 year JGB.

Astro Aspects

Vedic/Sidereal Key Transits and aspects

• 26 July Saturn went retrograde - expect more natural calamities like earthquakes and Tsunami warnings. It is also a time to revisit and perhaps correct old dealing and contracts etc and complete any pending work.

• 31 July - Venus enters Virgo where it is debilitated

• 2nd August - Mars enters Gemini in the sign of a great friend.

• 12th August - total Solar eclipse. This impacts more at mundane level rather than at individual level. A testing time for the leaders like presidents, prime ministers etc and heads of large organisations.

• 16 August - Sun enters Leo. Leo is ruled by Sun. Leo will see the return of the lord.

• 22 August - Mercury eners Leo

• 27th August - Lunar eclipse

August is a pretty busy moth with respect to astro and particularly for those individuals who have Leo as their moon sign or ascendant.

August is also going to see two eclipses. 12th August is the Solar eclipse. The impact of the solar eclipse could start a couple of weeks early and could last as long as 3 months to even 6 months. 27th August is the lunar eclipse. Moon represents emotions and also public. Individuals are likely to feel the impact of the lunar eclipse depending on the placement of the moon in an individuals chart one could feel more emotional or sensitive to the surroundings and the events unfolding.

The above chart is the US natal chart. Mars has just entered the 8th house of transformation - rebirth, inheritance, disputes, sudden events. We are likely to see sudden events unfold. Most important to note is the Sun and Jupiter in the 9th house of pure luck, higher education and long distance travel. Jupiter was combust due to the Sun being close but as Sun moves towards Leo i.e. the 5th house, Jupiter is gaining strength again in its guru status and the benefic that it is and with the Mercury being direct now, we could see sudden event where the Iran deal i.e. the MOU which went off track could come back on track. However, if things do not go according to the plan, the Mars being in the 8th house indicate sudden fiery events could take place.

The below chart represents the second half of August when Sun moves into the sign of Leo where Ketu is already present in the 10th house of Homeland. It is indicative of likely challenges to be faced at homeland.

Markets

The most important market to watch last week and in particular last Friday was the USDJPY.

Here is a note from the US Treasury Scott Bessent which notes a To-Do item to buy $5 to $10 billion Yes i.e. a direct intervention alongside the Bank of Japan to help strengthen the Yen. Last Friday, it is reported in the media the US Treasury did intervene in the FX markets and this note was a well publication to note that an intervention was likely, further a few key major banks were also advised in advanced as per the media reports.

This $5 to $10 billion intervention is small in comparison to the BOJ intervention which has been reported in media to be $55 to $56 billion. However, it does send a message.

I checked with the help of Claude in the past what are the times when the US Treasury intervened in the Forex markets and bought Yen and what was the level of the USDJPY 18 to 24 months later. Below is the summary table.

This intervention from the US Treasury is not something that just happened, earlier in the year in January 2026 Treasury Secretary had made comments about the Yen being too low. Even in our newsletter, previously we have discussed that Yen had reached lows not seen in three decades right at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. We shall revisit the chart a little bit later in the newsletter.

From above the chart, it is quite noticeable that whenever the US Treasury has intervened, the trend for the USDJPY 18 months to 24 months has been a stronger Yen.

Could it be different this time?

Below is the TIC data as of May 2026. Japan is the largest holder of the US Treasury. In May 2026, Japan sold nearly $67 Billion of US Treasury. Japan could sell more and use those Dollars to prop up their currency i.e. buy Yen.

Now, why might be Japan be doing this? Japan imports all of its energy and many other things as well. It is really import heavy. Whilst a lower Yen is good for exporters and exports, it makes the imports expensive such as energy i.e. Crude Oil. With the recent geopolitical situation and rise in the energy prices such as the crud oil, the situation with the inflation has been rising. Which is making things expensive for the public. Hence, a lower Yen will help ease some of these pressures.

Secretary Bessent with this small but very meaningful intervention is likely sending a signal and perhaps in a way he might be attempting to avoid outflows from the US Treasury market as the data below supports that Japan has been selling the US debt and the yield on the longer end of the curve has been rising recently and particularly post FOMC. Perhaps, Bessent is able to manage the rest by jawboning and making public appearances and not having to spend any more money on the intervention.

Carry Trade and Nasdaq 100

We have discussed the carry trade before in the newsletter. Carry trade signify a situation where investors borrow in a lower yield currency for example and invest in a higher yielding asset. After the GFC and early 2010s, Australian dollar was one of the few currencies which was yielding higher and carry trade shorted the Japanese yen which negative rates at the time and invested in a higher yielding currency. More recently, the carry trade has been building a leverage in the systems in which the players and many hedge funds for example, would borrow in lower yielding currency like the Yen and invest in higher yielding assets like the Tech stocks i.e. Nasdaq 100.

The Analytics 5 shows the 10 year JGB is the lowest yielding currency in the developed world. If this carry trade unwinds and we had seen a glimpse of it in August 2024 with a sharp 10% decline in the Nasdaq, we could see the Nasdaq stocks decline.

So, the key things we should be watching are the USDJPY and how the market will react to it i.e. the important level of 150 on USDJPY. It is possible that the market from the current levels trade down to 150 but then the USDJPY rise again just the way it happened when BOJ had intervened in May 2026. The pair went on to make new highs.

The other important analytics to watch is the yield on the JGBs (Japanese Government Bonds) particularly the 10 year JGB. As the yield is rising, it is making the case for less or no intervention by the US Treasury more compelling because if the US Fed gets into a situation where they have to cut the interest rates, the rising yields on JGB will make the Yen more attractive and perhaps a more orderly unwind of the trade.

Nasdaq 100 recently already did a 10% correction and last Friday rallied to close the week higher, which is a healthy sign and we must not forget that we are in the midterm election year cycle.

S&P 500

In July, the market remained range bound and closed the month pretty much unchanged. It is a sign of rotation between the sectors. We are still expecting the market to close the year higher with a likely new all time high.

The 10 year pattern we had discussed in an earlier article also supports this from a technical perspective.

Weekly chart found support from the upper channel and closed higher for the week.

29th July, the market was down over 100 points, however, rejected lower price and closed higher on two consecutive daily basis. 29th July is likely a key low in the market.

Below is the chart of Equal Weight S&P 500 which actually made a new all time high last week.

NYA - New York Stock Exchange Index

Made a new ATH last week. Shows the sign of breadth in the market as rotation took place.

NDX - Nasdaq 100 Cash

Nasdaq had a near -13% correction. Some high flyers in the Semiconductors cooled off and last Friday we saw hyper scalers like Amazon and Google gain. Amazon’s amazing earnings came out and the stock was up +17% for the week. The software and cloud computing stocks which had been down earlier in the year saw the flows come back into it. This indicated a rotation taking place.

The weekly chart shows the market corrected right into the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and closed higher and closed the week in positive. This is good for the bulls and likely we have seen a key low in the market as long as the 38.2% Fibonnaci retracement is held.

The daily chart illustrates in the shaded region the pattern formation and level we were watching. The market reached that and closed lower on 29th July, however, the very next day the market reject lower prices and closed +3% higher. That is significant.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures

Dow Jones didn’t see much correction and the market has been largely sideways down only -3% or so.

The industrial and financials have been doing well.

Russell 2000

Key is to watch Nasdaq and the support level we had discussed for it. Russell 2000 has been consolidating as the yields rose.

US Dollar

38.2% Fibonacci retracement was too much of a resistance for the dollar and it closed the month lower. However, dollar remains stable.

As the US Treasury intervened the FX markets and so did Japan, we have seen a decline in the USD. Between 99.15 and 97.70 is support.

COMEX Gold

Gold has been range bound, however, the ranges are pretty wide. We had discussed the $3900/oz being the key support level and breaking that, Gold is likely to head to $3600/oz to $3500/oz. However, its been in a month long consolidation.

After four months of consolidation, Gold closed positive for the month.

US Treasury

10 Year Note

Yields were strongly higher for the month and particularly after the FOMC last week. 10 Year yields are likely to breach the 5% level.

Disclaimer

This publication is produced for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this article, including the written commentary, charts, images, data, and any internal or external links, constitutes financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other form of professional financial guidance.

The content reflects the author’s analysis of publicly available market data and is shared solely to inform and educate. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Markets can and do move against any position or analysis presented here.

You should always conduct your own independent research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from your use of, or reliance on, the information contained in this publication.

Summary

• S&P 500 (SPX) → +0.70% · closed at 7,489.72 · large-caps led; small-caps lagged on the day

• NASDAQ 100 (NDX) → +0.60% · closed at 28,274.20 · held gains despite tech sector mixed internally

• Russell 2000 (RUT) → -0.50% · small-caps ran into resistance; diverged from large-cap peers

• Gold (GLD) → -1.49% · sold off sharply; silver -2.13%; commodities broadly weak

• Bitcoin (IBIT) → -2.89% · worst performer on the day; risk-off in alternatives

• US Treasuries (GOVT) → -0.24% · long end hit hard; TLT -0.66%, GOVZ -1.06%

• VIX → -6.44% to 15.99 · fear gauge retreating; equity sentiment remains constructive

• Consumer Discretionary (XLY) → +3.29% · top SPDR sector; Amazon surged +15.32%

• KOSPI → +17.91% daily · extraordinary move; single-session standout globally

Asset Classes

Cross-Asset Daily Returns

Here is the breakdown, ranked best to worst on the day. S&P 500 led at +0.70%, followed by the NASDAQ 100 at +0.60%. Cash (SGOV) was flat at +0.02%. Everything else sold off. Treasuries (GOVT) fell -0.24%, the Russell 2000 dropped -0.50%, gold shed -1.49%, silver tumbled -2.13%, and Bitcoin (IBIT) was the clear laggard at -2.89%. Large-cap equities won; commodities and alternatives lost. This is a selective, large-cap risk-on session rather than a broad market advance.

Performance by Asset Class

Cash held its ground — SGOV ticked up +0.02%, doing exactly what it should. Fixed income struggled as GOVT fell -0.24%, with long-duration paper bearing the brunt. Equities delivered a split verdict: the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 gained, the Russell 2000 did not. Commodities were firmly in the red — silver’s -2.13% and gold’s -1.49% signal no inflation panic bid today. Alternatives took the hardest hit; Bitcoin’s -2.89% decline wrapped up a difficult week for the asset class.

World Indices

Performance by Region

North America was mixed. The S&P 500 (+0.70%) and Dow Jones (+0.53%) held firm; the Russell 2000 (-0.50%) and TSX (-0.79%) lagged. Europe was largely positive — the Euro Stoxx 50 gained +0.21%, the CAC 40 +0.28%, and the DAX edged up +0.07%, whilst the FTSE 100 slipped -0.27% and the FTSE 250 fell -0.43%. China was split: the Hang Seng gained just +0.10%, but the Shanghai Composite added +0.72%. India showed broad strength — Nifty Auto led at +1.64% and Nifty Midcap 150 gained +1.31%, though Nifty IT fell -1.56%.

Asia Pacific & Market Sentiment

What jumps out immediately is the KOSPI. South Korea’s index surged +17.91% on the session — an extraordinary single-day move that demands attention. The Nikkei 225 also had a strong day, up +4.03%, whilst the ASX 200 was nearly flat at +0.10%. Crucially, the VIX fell -6.44% to 15.99 and the VXN dropped -5.63% to 26.00. Volatility is compressing meaningfully. US Treasury yields moved higher — the 10-year yield rose +1.76% on the day and the 5-year added +1.94%, a headwind for bonds but a signal of economic resilience.

Global Daily Bar Chart

The KOSPI’s +17.91% daily move is the single best-performing index on the planet today — by an enormous margin. That is not a routine session; it signals either a major policy catalyst or a technical squeeze driving outsized flows. On the other end, Nifty IT shed -1.56%, the worst performer across our tracked indices. Tech pressure in India stands in contrast to the broader Indian midcap strength. Watch for follow-through confirmation in Seoul next week.

Rates & Treasuries

Bond ETF Daily Returns

The government bond complex was firmly in the red today. GOVZ (25+ year STRIPS) fell -1.06%, TLT -0.66%, TLH -0.57%, IEF -0.28%, and GOVT -0.24%. The further out on the curve, the more pain. Short-duration government paper held up — SHY dipped just -0.01%. High yield was the relative winner: HYG was essentially flat at +0.01%, SHYG edged up +0.02%, and EMHY posted the best return of the day at +0.10%. Three ETFs positive, eleven negative. The government-versus-high-yield split is clear.

Returns Chart

Today’s bar chart tells a straightforward story. High yield held; government bonds sold off — particularly long duration. That is a risk-appetite signal. When credit holds whilst rates-sensitive paper falls, the market is not fleeing to safety. Spreads are well-behaved. This is bond weakness driven by rising yields, not by credit stress. A yellow flag, not a red flag — but the consistent pressure on long duration across MTD and YTD timeframes warrants attention.

Yield Curve

The curve is in a Bear Flattener regime. The shape is mildly upward sloping — 2s10s at +0.45% and 5s30s at +0.83%. Key yields today: 2Y at 4.23%, 5Y at 4.38%, 10Y at 4.68%, 30Y at 5.21%. Over the past week, short-end yields fell — the 2Y dropped -14bp and the 3M fell -13bp — whilst the long end crept higher, with the 30Y rising +4bp. The belly of the curve is under pressure. Bears are selling duration; the front end is finding support as Fed cut expectations remain alive.

ETF Sectors

SPDR Sectors

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) led the charge at +3.29% — Amazon’s massive +15.32% day drove that outcome almost single-handedly. Communication Services (XLC) followed at +1.56%. Energy (XLE) added +1.00% and Industrials (XLI) gained +0.81%. On the negative side, Materials (XLB) was the clear laggard at -2.34%, with Healthcare (XLV) -0.59%, Utilities (XLU) -0.69%, and Real Estate (XLRE) -0.51% also in the red. Technology (XLK) dipped -0.22%. Rotation today favoured cyclicals and consumer names over defensives and real assets.

Tech Thematic

Semiconductors were largely flat — SOXX gained just +0.07% and SMH added +0.30%. The real action was in cybersecurity and cloud. CIBR surged +2.01% and HACK rose +1.20%, both posting solid daily gains. WCLD added +1.57% and IGV climbed +1.36%. Software and cloud are showing genuine momentum today. Semis remain a yellow flag — SOXX is down -21.20% MTD and CIBR outperforming on a relative basis is a healthy rotation signal within tech.

ARK Innovation

The ARK suite split sharply today. ARKQ gained +0.96% and ARKX rose +0.82% — robotics and space exploration finding buyers. ARKW fell -1.02%, ARKG dropped -1.78%, ARKF fell -2.10%, and ARKK was the worst at -2.28%. The more speculative, high-beta names continued to bleed. ARKG’s genomics focus collides with today’s broader biotech weakness. ARKQ and ARKX are the relative bright spots — hard assets and industrial innovation holding up better than pure-play disruptors.

Healthcare & Defence

Biotech had a rough session. XBI fell -2.94% and IBB dropped -1.87% — meaningful declines that extend what has been a difficult month for the space. Defence fared considerably better. ITA gained +0.64% and XAR added +0.77%. The divergence is notable: defence is holding technical structure whilst biotech ran into resistance. With XBI down -7.10% MTD, we are watching closely for stabilisation before treating any bounce as a genuine base.

Consumer, Finance & Specialty

Energy names led here. XOP gained +1.45%, adding to a strong month (+15.00% MTD). KRE added +0.21% and IYT was essentially flat. On the negative side, FINX fell -1.58%, XHB dropped -0.79%, and XRT slipped -0.88%. Homebuilders (XHB -10.27% MTD) remain under sustained pressure — rising long-end yields are a structural headwind for that space. Regional banking (KRE) is quietly constructive on a relative basis. Fintech continues to disappoint.

Stock Screener

S&P 500 Top 20

The S&P 500 closed at +0.70% today. Amazon led our screener’s daily raw selection with a remarkable +15.32% gain, followed by Dexcom at +11.95% and Monolithic Power Systems at +8.35%. Eaton Corporation (+7.32%) and Alphabet (+6.88%) rounded out the top five. Communication Services and Technology dominated the list alongside select Industrials names. In our refined, top-ranked list, DXCM, VLO, FTNT, MPC, DVA, DDOG, PSX, and EXPE all scored 92/100 — a strong cluster of leaders sitting within striking distance of their 52-week highs.

Russell 2000 Top 20

The Russell 2000 fell -0.50% on the session. Our screener’s daily selection was led by Tucows (TCX) at an extraordinary +59.18%, followed by IES Inc (IESC) at +30.27% and Forum Energy Technologies (FET) at +21.85%. Healthcare and Information Technology names dominated the raw selection. In the refined list, BVS, ETON, AMCX, NVCT, ORKA, ELVN, and INBK all scored 92/100. Healthcare is unmistakably the dominant sector in top-ranked small-cap names — energy and industrials provide supporting depth.

52-Week New Highs

S&P 500

Five new 52-week highs in the S&P 500 today — a modest count that reflects the index’s flat-to-mixed month. Industrials produced two names, with Information Technology, Healthcare, and Communication Services each contributing one. Notable names hitting fresh highs include DDOG (Datadog), SWK (Stanley Black & Decker), AME (Ametek), BMY (Bristol-Myers Squibb), and EA (Electronic Arts). DDOG’s appearance here aligns with its strong positioning in our screener — it scored 92/100 and sits just -3.4% off its 52-week peak.

Russell 2000

Forty-six new 52-week highs in the Russell 2000 — a substantially healthier breadth reading for small-caps on a day the index itself declined. Financials led with 18 new highs, Health Care delivered 13, and Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials each added three. Notable names include GH (Guardant Health), ADPT, MNPR, TXG (10X Genomics), DNTH, SHOO (Steven Madden), NMIH, MBX, CNO, and AMCX. The breadth here is genuinely encouraging — small-cap leadership is broadening beneath the surface even as the index traded sideways on the week.

FTSE 250

Sixteen new 52-week highs in the FTSE 250 — a solid showing for UK mid-caps on a day the index dipped -0.43%. Real Estate contributed two names. Notable prints include EMG.L (Man Group), SAGA.L, LWDB.L (Law Debenture), TMPL.L (Temple Bar), CSN.L, BUT.L, DLN.L (Derwent London), FSV.L, JGGI.L (JPMorgan Global Growth & Income), and SAIN.L (Scottish American Investment). The mix of investment trusts and real estate names reaching new highs suggests UK institutional money is rotating into income-oriented structures.

FTSE 100

Just one new 52-week high in the FTSE 100 today — SDLF.L in the Life Insurance sector. The FTSE 100 slipped -0.27% on the session, and the breadth reading confirms the index ran into resistance at current levels. A single name at a fresh high on a modest down day is a yellow flag for the large-cap UK market. We will be watching whether the FTSE 100’s strong month (+3.53% MTD) can translate into broader new-high participation as we move into August.

Markets

SPX — S&P 500

NDX — Nasdaq 100

GC1! — Gold Futures

DX1! — US Dollar

EURUSD — EUR/USD

BTCUSD — Bitcoin

Disclaimer

This publication is produced for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this article, including the written commentary, charts, images, data, and any internal or external links, constitutes financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other form of professional financial guidance.

The content reflects the author’s analysis of publicly available market data and is shared solely to inform and educate. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Markets can and do move against any position or analysis presented here.

You should always conduct your own independent research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from your use of, or reliance on, the information contained in this publication.

Summary

• Silver (SLV) — best cross-asset performer, +1.02%, led the commodities charge on the day

• NASDAQ 100 (NDX) — lagged all asset classes, -1.15%, weighed down by a -4.40% collapse in SOXX

• S&P 500 (SPX) — nearly flat at +0.05%, whilst Real Estate (XLRE, +2.22%) and Materials (XLB, +1.93%) led sector rotation

• European indices — outperformed Wall Street; DAX +1.36%, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.14%, FTSE 100 +0.91%

• KOSPI (South Korea) — worst index on the day, -5.72%; Nikkei 225 also under pressure at -2.73%

• Treasuries — government bonds found support across durations; TLH +0.22%, VIX eased -0.64%

• ARK suite — broad sell-off, ARKK -2.63%, ARKG -2.60%, ARKQ -2.43%; no ARK ETF finished green

• 52-week highs — Russell 2000 produced 78 new highs, dominated by Financials; S&P 500 printed 17

Asset Classes

Cross-Asset Daily Returns

Here is the breakdown. Silver topped the cross-asset leaderboard at +1.02%, followed by Treasuries (GOVT, +0.13%) and Gold (+0.10%). The S&P 500 eked out +0.05%. Bitcoin slipped -0.82% and the NASDAQ 100 fell -1.15% — the clear laggard. What jumps out immediately is the split signal: precious metals and government bonds both gaining on the same day that tech sold off hard. That is not clean risk-on. Call it a bifurcated session — rotation out of growth, into real assets and duration.

Performance by Asset Class

Commodities led the day. Fixed income posted a modest gain, confirming mild safe-haven demand. Equities were mixed — the S&P 500 barely held positive whilst the NASDAQ 100 dragged. Cash (SGOV, +0.03%) was quietly stable. Alternatives underperformed; Bitcoin’s -0.82% print continues its difficult month despite a strong MTD recovery narrative.

World Indices

Performance by Region

Europe led the charge globally. The DAX added +1.36%, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.14%, FTSE 100 +0.91%, and FTSE 250 +0.74%. North America was mixed — the TSX Composite (+0.50%) and NYSE Composite (+0.49%) held firm, whilst the NASDAQ 100 dragged the region. India was largely flat to modestly negative; the Nifty 50 fell -0.43%. China struggled, with the Shanghai Composite down -1.61% and the Hang Seng off -0.98%.

Asia Pacific, Volatility and Yields

Asia Pacific was the session’s weak point. The KOSPI collapsed -5.72% — a significant single-session move — and the Nikkei 225 fell -2.73%. The ASX 200 gave back -0.75%. On sentiment, the VIX eased -0.64% to 18.58, a yellow flag rather than a red flag — not complacency, but modest relief. The VXN ticked up +1.18% to 28.39, confirming NASDAQ-specific stress. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.68%, down -0.51% on the day.

Global Daily Bar Chart

The single best performing index on the day was the DAX at +1.36%, signalling continued European momentum as capital rotates away from US growth exposure. The single worst was the KOSPI at -5.72% — a jarring move that warrants close attention next week. Two indices, two very different stories.

Rates & Treasuries

Bond ETF Daily Returns

Government bonds found support across the board today. TLH led at +0.22%, IEF gained +0.19%, IEI +0.15%, and even the broad GOVT added +0.13%. TLT posted +0.10%. The sole loser on the government side was GOVZ (-0.14%) — its extreme 26.6-year duration biting on any intraday yield tick. High yield was essentially flat: HYG, USHY, and EMHY all closed at +0.00%. SHYG slipped -0.02%. Ten of fifteen ETFs finished positive.

Returns Chart — Risk Appetite Signal

Government bonds outperformed high yield today. That split matters. When Treasuries gain whilst high yield flatlines, the market is not expressing pure risk appetite — it is hedging. Add the VXN tick-up and NASDAQ weakness, and today reads as a mild flight-to-quality on the margin. Not a full risk-off session, but the directional lean is defensive.

Yield Curve

The curve sits in a Bear Flattener regime with a mildly upward shape. The 2s10s spread stands at +34bp; the 5s30s at +71bp. Over the past week, the short end has risen faster than the long end — the 2-year is +21bp over one week versus the 10-year at +14bp and the 30-year at just +8bp. Current key tenors: 2Y at 4.37%, 5Y at 4.46%, 10Y at 4.71%, 30Y at 5.17%. The belly of the curve continues to steepen relative to the long end. This is the market repricing near-term rate expectations higher, not a structural long-end blow-up.

ETF Sectors

SPDR Sectors

Real Estate (XLRE, +2.22%) led all SPDR sectors on the day — a rate-sensitive sector bouncing as yields ticked down marginally. Materials (XLB, +1.93%) and Consumer Staples (XLP, +1.11%) also outperformed. The clear laggard was Technology (XLK, -1.44%), dragged by semiconductor pain. Energy (XLE) and Industrials (XLI) both added +0.40%. The rotation picture is defensive-leaning: real assets, staples, and rate-sensitives winning; growth tech losing. A yellow flag for near-term index momentum given tech’s index weight.

Tech Thematic

Semiconductors bore the brunt. SOXX fell -4.40% and SMH dropped -3.27% — a brutal single session for the space. Cloud computing was the standout exception: WCLD surged +3.05%. Software (IGV) recovered +1.01%. Cybersecurity was mixed — HACK gained +1.30% whilst CIBR added +0.78%. The divergence within tech is stark. Semiconductors ran into resistance and sold off hard; cloud and software found some footing.

ARK Innovation

Every ARK ETF finished in the red. ARKK fell -2.63%, ARKG -2.60%, ARKQ -2.43%, ARKX -1.84%, ARKW -1.24%, and ARKF -0.60%. ARKF was the relative best — and it still lost ground. The broad-based sell-off across the ARK suite mirrors the NASDAQ pressure. No ARK ETF offered a safe harbour today.

Healthcare & Defence

The sector split here is clear. Defence held up: ITA gained +0.80% and XAR slipped just -0.57%. Biotech struggled: XBI fell -1.15% and IBB dropped -0.44%. As we discussed in the weekly newsletter, biotech has been a volatile pocket of the market this month — today’s session reinforces that caution. Defence continues to demonstrate relative resilience, particularly ITA on a WTD basis (+4.08%).

Consumer, Finance & Specialty

Homebuilders (XHB, +1.64%) were the standout in this group, likely responding to the yield dip. Regional banking (KRE, +0.77%) and retail (XRT, +0.73%) held modest gains. Financial services (IYG, +0.68%) ticked higher. Oil and gas exploration (XOP) fell -0.92% despite energy sector (XLE) gains — E&P names diverging from the broader energy complex. Fintech (FINX, -0.30%) slipped marginally. The group is broadly constructive, with XOP the lone exception.

Stock Screener

S&P 500 Top 20

The S&P 500 closed +0.05% today. Our screener’s top-ranked names are led by a cluster of high-scoring industrials and cyclicals. HPE, URI, PKG, DELL, and SW top the refined list, each scoring 92/100. What jumps out immediately is the dominance of packaging (IP +11.21%, SW +11.10%, PKG +8.76%) and technology services (VRSN, GDDY, ADBE, ACN, WDAY) in today’s daily movers. Energy names — VLO, FANG, COP, CVX — remain strongly positioned on our watchlist with scores of 75–87. The top-ranked names span Consumer Cyclical, Technology, and Energy with real breadth.

Russell 2000 Top 20

The Russell 2000 fell -0.35% on the session. Our screener’s top-ranked names within the small-cap universe are dominated by Financials and Healthcare. NVEC, AMTB, ORKA, ELVN, TMP, ENVA, THRM, and CHMG all score 92/100. The daily raw leaders featured a dramatic +89.61% move in LVWR and +41.49% in SAFT — both Financials names that appeared repeatedly across daily and WTD selections. Healthcare names (CRNX, CDNA, ARWR, ALMS) are well represented in the refined watchlist, underscoring biotech leadership at the small-cap level despite broader sector softness.

52-Week New Highs

S&P 500

Seventeen new 52-week highs on Friday. Industrials and Financial Services each contributed six names — a remarkably even split between two of the market’s core cyclical pillars. Notable names include RTX, PCAR, and HWM from Industrials, alongside TRV, BAC, and EG from Financials. Real Estate posted two new highs (WELL among them), Energy contributed one, and Healthcare added one (LH). Breadth here is constructive — leadership is broad, not concentrated in a single momentum pocket.

Russell 2000

Seventy-eight new 52-week highs in the small-cap index — a strong breadth reading. Financials absolutely dominated with 50 of the 78 names, a decisive signal that community and regional banks are in recovery mode. Healthcare added 7 new highs, Real Estate 7, Consumer Discretionary 3, and Energy 3. Notable names: NVEC, THRM, NVCR, FFAI, and IMAX. That Financials breadth number is the line in the sand for small-cap bulls — 50 names is not noise, it is a sector in motion.

FTSE 250

Five new 52-week highs in the mid-cap UK index. One name each across Engineering and Construction, Food Producers, Life Insurance, Construction, and Industrials — COST.L, APN.L, CSN.L, GFRD.L, and ROR.L. Thin by recent standards but the FTSE 250 was up +0.74% on the day, so breadth may improve early next week if momentum holds.

FTSE 100

Zero new 52-week highs in the FTSE 100 today. The index itself gained +0.91% — a decent session. The absence of new highs whilst the index rises tells us the move was recovery-driven rather than leadership-driven. Worth monitoring in next week’s sessions to see whether the blue-chip names can push through to fresh highs as European momentum continues to build.

Markets

SPX — S&P 500

NDX — Nasdaq 100

GC1! — Gold Futures

DX1! — US Dollar

EURUSD — EUR/USD

BTCUSD — Bitcoin

Disclaimer

This publication is produced for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this article, including the written commentary, charts, images, data, and any internal or external links, constitutes financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other form of professional financial guidance.

The content reflects the author’s analysis of publicly available market data and is shared solely to inform and educate. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Markets can and do move against any position or analysis presented here.

You should always conduct your own independent research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from your use of, or reliance on, the information contained in this publication.

Summary

• Silver (SLV) — led all assets, +4.12% daily, strongest single-day move in the cross-asset table

• Bitcoin (IBIT) — +2.11%, risk-on appetite extending into alternatives

• Gold (GLD) — +1.96%, commodities broadly bid

• NASDAQ 100 (NDX) — +1.93%, tech leading equities; semiconductors the dominant force

• Russell 2000 (RUT) — +1.53% at 2,987.40, small caps outperforming the S&P 500

• S&P 500 (SPX) — +0.89% to 7,509.20, broad market gains, Technology sector (XLK +2.89%) leading

• US Treasuries (GOVT) — -0.20%; bond ETFs broadly lower, long-end TLH worst at -0.34%

• VIX — collapsed -8.58% to 17.05; fear exits the building

Asset Classes

Cross-Asset Daily Returns

Here is the breakdown. Silver topped the leaderboard at +4.12%, Bitcoin followed at +2.11%, Gold added +1.96%, and then equities — NASDAQ at +1.93%, Russell at +1.53%, S&P 500 at +0.89%. US Treasuries were the only meaningful loser at -0.20%. Cash was flat. This is a textbook risk-on session. Commodities, crypto, and growth equities all moved in the same direction. Bonds sold off as capital rotated into higher-beta assets. Clear and unambiguous.

Performance by Asset Class

Commodities led the day. Equities delivered broad-based gains across all three major US indices. Alternatives (Bitcoin +2.11%) confirmed the risk-appetite signal. Cash was essentially neutral at +0.01%. Fixed income was the one laggard — GOVT dropped -0.20% as yields pushed higher across the intermediate and long end of the curve.

World Indices

Performance by Region

North America swept higher. The NASDAQ 100 (+1.93%) and Russell 2000 (+1.53%) led the charge, with the TSX Composite adding a solid +1.17%. Europe joined the party — Euro Stoxx 50 +0.94%, FTSE 250 +0.90%, DAX +0.66%. China was mixed: Shanghai Composite surged +1.79% whilst the Hang Seng was essentially flat at -0.04%. India lagged — the Nifty 50 slipped -0.21%, the SENSEX -0.31%, and Nifty IT gave back -0.61%.

Asia Pacific + Market Sentiment + US Treasury Yields

What jumps out immediately in Asia Pacific: the Nikkei 225 exploded +3.26% and KOSPI surged +3.56% — a synchronised bounce that carried real conviction. The VIX fell -8.58% to 17.05 and the VXN dropped -6.55% to 26.66. Volatility is compressing fast. That is a green light for risk assets. On the yield side, the 5-year Treasury yield ticked up +0.97% on the day to 4.37%, confirming bond market pressure persists.

Global Daily Bar Chart

The single best performing index on the session was the KOSPI Composite (+3.56%), signalling robust risk appetite across Asian equity markets and carrying meaningful breadth implications for global sentiment. The single worst performer was the SENSEX (-0.31%), a yellow flag for Indian large-caps where domestic flows remain muted and the Nifty IT complex continues to drag.

Rates & Treasuries

Bond ETF Daily Returns

Only one ETF finished in positive territory — EMHY at +0.01%. Everything else declined. High yield held up relatively well: HYG -0.04%, SHYG -0.02%, USHY -0.05%. Government bonds bore the brunt. TLH fell -0.34% (worst on the day), GOVZ -0.33%, TLT -0.27%, IEF -0.25%. Duration was punished. The pattern is clear — the longer the bond, the deeper the loss.

Returns Chart — Risk Appetite Signal

High yield barely moved. Government bonds, particularly at the long end, took the hit. This divergence is a risk-on signal. When investors are willing to hold credit whilst dumping duration, they are pricing growth, not fear. The average return across all 15 bond ETFs was -0.15%. Fourteen out of fifteen finished in the red. Bonds are not where the market wants to be today.

Yield Curve — Shape and Regime

The curve sits in a Bear Flattener regime — yields rising, with the short-to-intermediate end moving faster than the long end. The 2s10s spread stands at +0.39%, 5s30s at +0.78%. Key yields: 2Y at 4.21%, 5Y at 4.33%, 10Y at 4.60%, 30Y at 5.11%. Over the past week, short and intermediate tenors have eased slightly (-5bp at the 2Y), whilst the 20Y and 30Y added +1bp each. The belly of the curve remains under pressure — the 10Y is up +14bp month-to-date.

ETF Sectors

SPDR Sectors

Technology (XLK) dominated at +2.89% — the clear sector leader on the day. Energy (XLE) followed at +0.97%. Consumer Staples (XLP) was the worst performer at -0.94%, with Communication Services (XLC) also in the red at -0.69%. Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU) were essentially flat. The rotation read is unambiguous: growth and cyclicals in, defensives out. This is not a day the market was hiding.

Tech Thematic

Semiconductors stole the show. SOXX surged +5.45% and SMH added +4.52% — the semis complex is on fire. That is the engine driving the NASDAQ’s outperformance. Cybersecurity was a notable laggard: HACK fell -1.98% and CIBR dropped -1.32%. Cloud (WCLD) gave back -3.33% and software (IGV) slipped -1.25%. The divergence within tech is sharp — hardware and chips are in demand; software and cloud are not following today.

ARK Innovation

All six ARK funds finished in the green. ARKK led at +3.66%, ARKG was close behind at +3.34%, ARKQ +2.98%, ARKX +2.30%, ARKW +2.60%, and ARKF +1.87%. A clean sweep across the innovation complex. When all six ARK funds rally together, the risk-on signal is strong. Today’s session delivered exactly that — broad-based buying across genomics, fintech, autonomous tech, and space.

Healthcare & Defence

Biotech outperformed defence today. XBI surged +2.36% and IBB added +1.49% — healthcare is finding buyers. On the defence side, XAR gained +2.16% and ITA managed just +0.20%. XAR’s move is notable given the aerospace and defence complex has been under pressure month-to-date (-6.65%). Today looks like a technical bounce. Biotech, by contrast, appears to be building genuine momentum with XBI up +26.71% year-to-date.

Consumer, Finance & Specialty

XOP (oil and gas exploration) led this group convincingly at +2.23%, consistent with energy’s sector-wide strength. FINX (fintech) added +1.62%. Transports (IYT) gained +0.33%, regional banks (KRE) +0.12%, and financial services (IYG) +0.27%. Homebuilders (XHB) slipped -0.12% and retail (XRT) dropped -0.54%. Homebuilders remain one of the weakest pockets of the market with an MTD return of -8.32% — a yellow flag worth watching.

Stock Screener

S&P 500 Top 20

The S&P 500 added +0.89% on the session. Today’s daily raw selection is a semiconductor and storage sweep. SNDK (Sandisk) led at +14.27%, WDC (Western Digital) +12.51%, MU (Micron) +12.17%, TER (Teradyne) +12.07%, and COHR (Coherent) +11.15%. Information Technology and Technology names account for the overwhelming majority of the top 20. COIN (Coinbase, +9.61%) and HOOD (Robinhood, +7.13%) represent the financials-adjacent crypto exposure. In our refined scored list, DVA (DaVita), DD (DuPont), and HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise) all scored 92/100 — the strongest setups technically, with clean trends, relative strength, and proximity to 52-week highs. Energy names MPC, PSX, and VLO (all 85/100) remain top-ranked and are printing new 52-week highs today.

Russell 2000 Top 20

The Russell 2000 gained +1.53%. UTZ Brands was the outlier of the session — an extraordinary +88.72% on the day, driven by a clear one-off catalyst. Behind that, Information Technology dominated: AEHR Test Systems +27.86%, FEIM (Frequency Electronics) +19.67%, OUST (Ouster) +17.00%, ACMR (ACM Research) +15.45%. Our screener’s top-ranked names look compelling: IOVA, FEIM, ATEX, ELVN, and ALMS all score 92/100. Healthcare is the dominant sector in the refined list, with biotech and therapeutics names clustered at the top. Energy names PARR, PBF, and DK also score 85/100 and are printing fresh 52-week highs.

52-Week New Highs

S&P 500

Nine new 52-week highs in the S&P 500 today. Energy led with three names — MPC, PSX, and VLO — all of which are top-ranked on our screener and confirmed by the sector’s +0.97% daily gain. Healthcare contributed two: CVS and VTRS. Real estate added WELL and VTR. Industrials brought CHRW, and Consumer Defensive added ADM. A relatively modest total for a broadly positive session — breadth is improving but not yet surging at the large-cap level.

Russell 2000

Fifty-seven new 52-week highs in the Russell 2000 — a strong breadth number. Financials led with 13 names, Industrials and Real Estate each contributed 10, Healthcare added 8, and Energy brought 8. Notable names include XNCR, TRAX, DAVE, ZD, WTTR, and BLBD. The diversity across sectors is encouraging. When small-cap breadth expands this broadly, it typically signals genuine participation rather than narrow leadership. This is one of the more constructive breadth readings we have seen in recent sessions.

FTSE 250

Five new 52-week highs in the FTSE 250. Names include FCH.L, MTO.L (Mitie), GFRD.L (Galliford Try), THRL.L (Target Healthcare REIT), and HSL.L. Sectors represented span financial services, industrials, and construction. A thin but steady list for the mid-cap UK index, which added +0.90% on the session and sits +5.71% year-to-date.

FTSE 100

Zero new 52-week highs in the FTSE 100 today. The index gained +0.58% on the session, but no large-cap UK name crossed its annual high. The FTSE 100 sits at 10,585.91, up +6.59% year-to-date. The absence of new highs on a positive day is a yellow flag — the index is moving, but leadership at the top of the range remains thin. Worth watching as we move through the second half of July.

Markets

SPX — S&P 500

NDX — Nasdaq 100

GC1! — Gold Futures

DX1! — US Dollar

EURUSD — EUR/USD

BTCUSD — Bitcoin

Disclaimer

This publication is produced for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this article, including the written commentary, charts, images, data, and any internal or external links, constitutes financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other form of professional financial guidance.

The content reflects the author’s analysis of publicly available market data and is shared solely to inform and educate. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Markets can and do move against any position or analysis presented here.

You should always conduct your own independent research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from your use of, or reliance on, the information contained in this publication.

A defensive week across the board last week. Silver bore the brunt, sliding 5.88%, while the Nasdaq 100 gave back 4.13% as tech ran into resistance. Gold's 2.28% pullback tells us the metals complex cooled alongside risk assets rather than hedging them. The S&P 500 eased 1.55%, though the Russell 2000's modest 0.52% dip suggests small caps found relative support. Money rotated to safety — Treasuries added 0.20%, T-Bills 0.08% — while Bitcoin, up 0.33%, quietly led the charge. Risk-off, but orderly: a yellow flag, not a red one.

Global Equity Indices Performance

A week of two markets, and the dividing line ran straight through Asia. North Asia bore the brunt of the selling — the KOSPI tumbled 8.77%, the Nikkei shed 6.44% and the Shanghai Composite gave back 5.81% — yet the Hang Seng, up 1.60%, led the charge higher, a divergence we don’t often see inside the same region. India sided with Hong Kong, the Sensex adding 0.75% and the Nifty 50 up 0.53%, while Australia’s ASX 200 traded sideways, easing just 0.11%.

London quietly outperformed the developed world. The FTSE 250 rose 1.00% and the FTSE 100 added 0.98% — the only major Western indices in the green. The Continent couldn’t keep pace: the CAC 40 finished flat, the Euro Stoxx 50 slipped 0.62% and the DAX gave up 0.94%.

Stateside, technology did the damage. The Nasdaq 100 fell 4.13%, dragging the S&P 500 down 1.55%, while the Dow’s 0.93% dip and the Russell 2000’s modest 0.52% decline tell us the weakness stayed concentrated at the growth end. Canada’s TSX barely moved, off 0.12%.

Selective weakness rather than contagion — but with Seoul and Tokyo moving that fast, we’re watching Asia’s open closely. A yellow flag, not a red one.

Sectors and ETFs Performance

US Sector Performance — Week in Review

Last week delivered a textbook rotation out of growth and into value, with the sector board painting a starkly divided picture.

Energy (XLE) dominated, surging +4.72% on the week — extending its remarkable run to +8.60% month-to-date and +29.01% year-to-date, cementing its position as 2026’s runaway sector leader. Defensive and rate-sensitive corners followed: Real Estate (XLRE) gained +2.18%, Consumer Staples (XLP) +1.27%, and Financials (XLF) +0.99%, while Healthcare (XLV) eked out +0.16%.

At the other extreme, Technology (XLK) was routed, plunging -5.48% — by far the week’s worst performer — deepening its monthly decline to -7.84%. Notably, XLK remains up +21.96% YTD despite the drawdown, underlining how stretched the sector had become. Consumer Discretionary (-1.54%), Industrials (-1.38%), Communication Services (-0.89%), Materials (-0.71%), and Utilities (-0.53%) rounded out the losers.

The pattern is unmistakable: capital rotated aggressively from high-multiple growth names into energy and defensives — classic late-cycle, risk-off positioning consistent with elevated oil prices and geopolitical tension. The XLE/XLK divergence of over 10 percentage points in a single week is exceptional, and worth watching for continuation or snapback this week.

Tech Thematic — Week in Review

A brutal bifurcation within tech: semiconductors were crushed while software themes quietly advanced. SOXX collapsed -10.24% and SMH -8.92% — extending savage monthly drawdowns of -18.56% and -15.15% respectively — though both remain spectacular YTD winners (+73.27%, +54.54%), confirming this as profit-taking from extreme highs rather than thesis failure.

Meanwhile, Cloud (WCLD) gained +2.75% and cybersecurity held firm — HACK +1.89%, CIBR +0.52% — with software (IGV) up +0.42%. The rotation is clear: capital fleeing crowded AI-hardware trades into unloved, lower-multiple software names. The chip correction, not the market, was last week’s real story.

Consumer, Finance & Specialty — Week in Review

Oil & Gas Exploration (XOP) stole the show, surging +7.32% — even outpacing the broader energy sector — and extending its YTD gain to +34.79%. The old-economy rally broadened: Regional Banks (KRE) +2.23%, Retail (XRT) +1.52%, Transports (IYT) +1.24%, and Financial Services (IYG) +0.94% all advanced despite Friday weakness (note the red 1D column across the board).

The laggards were rate-and-growth sensitive: Homebuilders (XHB) slipped -0.33%, deepening a painful -6.33% month, while FinTech (FINX) fell -1.39% — still down -14.17% YTD, the group’s clear structural loser. Energy leadership, value breadth, growth weakness — the theme repeats.

Treasury - Fixed Income

U.S. Treasury Yield Curve — Week in Review

The curve tells a story of steady, grinding pressure. Yields rose modestly across most tenors last week (+1 to +4bp), but the real narrative is the 3-month trend: the belly has sold off hard, with 3Y yields up +40bp and 5Y +37bp since April, while the long end lagged (+16-19bp) — a classic bear flattener, as the dashboard’s regime label confirms.

The 10Y now sits at 4.57%, with both the 20Y and 30Y at 5.09% — psychologically significant territory. The 2s10s spread at +0.41% keeps the curve mildly upward-sloping, but compression is underway.

Most striking is the historical overlay: today’s curve sits above every snapshot — 3M, 6M, and 1Y ago — across virtually all maturities beyond 2Y. The market is repricing for higher-for-longer, with front-end cuts priced out (1M yield -60bp YoY reversing). Rising long yields at 5%+ signal persistent inflation concerns, heavy Treasury supply, and eroding duration appetite.

Yield Curve Spreads — The Flattening Trend

All three key spreads have compressed steadily since early 2026. The 2s10s (+0.41%) has narrowed from ~0.75% January peaks, dipping near 0.27% before a recent bounce — still positive, so no recession signal yet. The 5s30s (+0.81%) and 10s30s (+0.52%) show the same arc: term premium eroding as the belly sells off faster than the long end. The message: a bear flattener grinding on, with the curve’s cushion above inversion thinning — worth monitoring closely.

Global 10-Year Yields — Convergence From Below

The UK Gilt (4.97%) remains the developed world’s costliest borrower, nearing 5% again after its May spike, with US Treasuries at 4.55%. The standout trend is Japan’s relentless climb — JGBs nearly doubling from ~1.4% to 2.70% in thirteen months as the BoJ normalises, now converging on Bunds (3.14%). The Germany-Japan gap has collapsed from ~110bp to ~44bp, steadily eroding the global carry trade’s foundations — a slow-motion unwind with major implications for capital flows.

Fed Shadow Rate — Market Turns Hawkish

A striking regime shift: after the Fed’s cutting cycle through 2025 (Fed Funds stepping down from ~4.33% to ~3.63%), the market has flipped decisively hawkish. The 3M Treasury now trades +21bp above Fed Funds — the widest hike-pricing gap on the chart — while 2Y yields have surged past 4.15%, steepening the expected policy path. Since January, the bottom panel shows unbroken red: markets no longer believe easing is coming, and are instead bracing for the Fed’s next move to be up. It is an interesting positioning as the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is faced with increasing pressure from the POTUS for rate cuts and a feedback from the market.

Bond ETF Returns — Week to 17 July

A quiet but telling week in fixed income, with returns compressed inside a narrow ±0.40% band. The belly of the Treasury curve led: intermediate funds IEF (+0.22%), LDRT (+0.22%), TLH (+0.18%) and IEI (+0.18%) all posted steady gains, with broad Treasuries (GOVT, +0.20%) and short-duration SHY close behind — consistent with the week’s modest yield stabilisation after the recent selloff.

Duration extremes told the opposite story: zero-coupon GOVZ fell -0.30%, the week’s worst performer, while TLT barely rose (+0.06%) — long-end convexity remains punishing.

In credit, the split was risk-defined: quality high yield edged up (FALN +0.10%), HYG slipped -0.08%, and EM high yield (EMHY, -0.39%) lagged everything — emerging-market credit stress quietly persisting beneath an otherwise calm surface.

Markets

Market Timing

Next week, we have key timing in. These are possible turn dates. The market has been consolidating since the beginning of June in a 5% range.

The key will be the US Tech heavy Nasdaq 100 as it formed a key pattern formation last Friday into the close.

We will watch the price action very closely going into the timing.

Nasdaq 100

Let’s take a look at the NQ - Futures market, which I like to take a look at for shorter term move.

The geopolitical situation does not look great based on the news coming out of the Middle East. However, last Friday, Nasdaq 100 Futures also closed at an interesting level. We have multiple AB=CD pattern completing near the close of last Friday. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the March lows to the peak in June is around 28,000 which is also close by. The market has corrected a little over 8% since the early June peak. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is the key and the retracement will be under 10%.

Nasdaq 100 cash, slightly different pattern formation.

Weekly chart shows weeks of sideways market, not reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracements from the late March 2026.

S&P 500

S&P 500 is stronger than the Tech heavy Nasdaq 100. The price remains above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement which is currently at the 7181.

S&P 500 Cash, we can see this consolidation in a sideways diagonal formation.

Here is the SPY chart. We can see the pattern is slightly different to the SPX. SPY is used a lot in options and hedging activities, hence, it is important to look at this chart. Important to note that, last Friday, the market closed positive and with more than average volume.

US Dollar

The Dollar is at or near a point where there is strong resistance. It is right at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement with ab=cd near by and closed negative for the week. Between 101 and 102.25 is resistance level.

COMEX Gold

Gold is attempting to find a bottom. Gold closed positive last Friday whilst the Nasdaq plummeted. $3960/oz is the 1.272 expansion of the swing as shown in the chart below. If this does not hold for some reason, the $3695/oz opens up.

Bitcoin - BTCUSD

Bitcoin has been finding some support from the $57K level the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Let’s see if it is able to close above the $68K level.

US Treasury Notes and Bonds Yields

2 Year Note

The AB=CD pattern is complete and the CPI and PPI data that came out last week was more assuring that the inflation is likely to tame. On the shorter end of the curve, the 2 year note, we saw the yield pullback, however, it remains stubbornly elevated.

Getting below the 4% level would be key as it will be breaking the structure that has been holding it up.

10 Year Note

Still a lower high on the yields. The yields are likely to ease, however, remain elevated.

30 Year Long Bond

Select ETFs and Stock

XLK

At the 38.2% Fibonacci support level and AB=CD near.

XLE - Energy

It’s been a nice rally over the last few days off the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Last Friday, the market closed at strong resistance level.

XLF - Financials

Financials are still likely to hit the 58.60 level.

KRE - Regional Banking Index

Strong performance by the regional banks.

Amazon - AMZN

Amazon has found strong support from the point ‘C’. However, on the rally attempt resistance came in at 258. Getting above this level will target the higher levels at 292 and 311.

Google - GOOG

Google is forming a base, however, on a rally attempt encountered resistance.

NetApp

Consolidating, getting above the $176 level on two consecutive daily basis is constructive for the bulls.

Disclaimer

This publication is produced for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this article, including the written commentary, charts, images, data, and any internal or external links, constitutes financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other form of professional financial guidance.

The content reflects the author’s analysis of publicly available market data and is shared solely to inform and educate. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Markets can and do move against any position or analysis presented here.

You should always conduct your own independent research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from your use of, or reliance on, the information contained in this publication.

Summary

• Gold (GLD) → +0.95% · led all assets; flight-to-quality bid accelerating

• Silver (SLV) → +0.77% · second-best on the day; commodities outperform

• US Treasuries (GOVT) → +0.13% · risk-off confirmed; long-end leads

• S&P 500 (SPX) → -1.01% · closed at 7,457.69; broad-based selling

• NASDAQ 100 (NDX) → -1.49% · worst major equity index; tech under pressure

• Russell 2000 (RUT) → -0.42% · small-caps held up best; relative resilience notable

• VIX → +12.19% to 18.77 · volatility spiking; market anxiety elevated

• Energy (XLE) → +1.16% · only SPDR sector in positive territory on the day

• Semiconductors (SMH) → -2.18% · heaviest drag in tech thematic space

Asset Classes

Cross-Asset Daily Returns

Here is the breakdown. Gold led the charge at +0.95%, Silver followed at +0.77%. That is commodities sweeping the top two spots. Treasuries added +0.13%. Cash barely moved at +0.03%. Bitcoin slipped -0.11%. Then came the equity carnage — Russell 2000 -0.42%, S&P 500 -1.01%, NASDAQ 100 -1.49%. The ranking is unambiguous. This is a classic risk-off session: hard assets up, paper assets down, equities at the bottom of the pile.

Performance by Asset Class

Commodities were the clear winners today. Fixed income played its traditional defensive role. Cash sat flat. Equities took the brunt of selling across the board, with tech-heavy indices suffering most. Alternatives were essentially flat — Bitcoin’s -0.11% kept it in no-man’s land.

World Indices

Performance by Region

North America saw broad losses. The S&P 500 fell -1.01%, the Dow -0.77%, and the NASDAQ 100 -1.49%. The TSX held up relatively well at -0.22%. Europe was mixed — the FTSE 100 was the standout, gaining +0.27%, whilst the Euro Stoxx 50 dropped -0.84% and the DAX fell -0.34%. In India, the picture was surprisingly strong: Nifty 50 +1.09%, Sensex +1.25%, Nifty IT +1.75%, and Nifty Bank +1.63%. China was the worst regional story — Shanghai Composite fell -3.05%, Hang Seng -1.78%.

Asia Pacific + Volatility + Yields

Asia Pacific was brutal. The Nikkei 225 dropped -4.03%. The KOSPI fell -6.37% — the worst of the session globally. The ASX 200 shed -0.50%. The VIX jumped +12.19% to 18.77, a yellow flag if sustained. The VXN spiked +6.18% to 29.03 — NASDAQ fear is rising. On yields, the 10-year eased -0.61% to 4.54% and the 30-year fell -0.67% to 5.06% — long-end yields declining as bonds rallied.

Global Daily Bar Chart

What jumps out immediately: the KOSPI was the single worst performer globally at -6.37%. A move of that magnitude demands attention. At the other end, the Nifty IT index gained +1.75%, a counter-trend strength signal from Indian technology that stands in sharp contrast to the US tech selloff today.

Rates & Treasuries

Bond ETF Daily Returns

Government bonds rallied cleanly across the duration spectrum. GOVZ (25+ Year STRIPS) led at +0.72%, TLT +0.37%, TLH +0.23%, IEF and GOVT both +0.13%. The short end was flat to marginally negative — SHY slipped -0.01%. High yield was the mirror image. HYG fell -0.19%, USHY -0.14%, HYDB -0.13%, SHYG -0.07%. Eight ETFs positive, seven negative. Government bonds up, high yield down.

Returns Chart

The bar chart tells a clean story. Duration wins on a risk-off day, and today confirmed that pattern exactly. Long government bonds attracted the flight-to-quality bid. High yield credit sold off in lockstep with equities. The spread between GOVZ (+0.72%) and HYG (-0.19%) is a 91-basis-point daily gap — that is a meaningful divergence and a clear risk appetite signal pointing to caution.

Yield Curve

The curve sits in a Bear Flattener regime with a mildly upward shape. The 2s10s spread is +0.41%, the 5s30s +0.81%. Key tenors today: 10-year at 4.57% (down 3bp on the week), 30-year at 5.09% (down 4bp on the week), 2-year at 4.16% (flat on the week). The 1-week changes show the long end easing modestly whilst the short end holds firm — classic flattening pressure. The 10Y is up 14bp month-to-date, reflecting the broader bear trend even as today’s session offered a brief reprieve.

ETF Sectors

SPDR Sectors

Energy (XLE) was the only SPDR sector to close in the green today at +1.16%. Everything else sold off. Communication Services (XLC) led the decline at -1.78%, followed by Consumer Discretionary (XLY) at -1.62%. Technology (XLK) fell -1.09%. Defensive sectors offered minimal shelter — Consumer Staples (XLP) -0.72%, Utilities (XLU) -0.66%. Real Estate (XLRE) was the most resilient laggard at -0.09%. Today’s session is firmly a risk-off rotation, with energy as the sole outlier driven by oil price strength.

Tech Thematic

Semiconductors took the sharpest hits. SMH fell -2.18%, SOXX -1.64%. Software (IGV) dropped -0.96%. Cloud (WCLD) slipped -0.20% — relatively contained. Cybersecurity was the exception: HACK gained +0.85% and CIBR added +0.51%. Let’s take a deep dive into that split — cyber is acting defensively within tech, whilst semis bore the brunt of the NASDAQ 100’s -1.49% session. That divergence is worth watching into next week.

ARK Innovation

All six ARK funds closed in the red. ARKK fell -1.92%, ARKW -1.75%, ARKQ -1.69%, ARKF -1.64%, ARKX -1.53%. ARKG was the relative outperformer — down just -0.55%, reflecting the broader biotech resilience we saw in XBI today. No shelter anywhere in the ARK suite on a day like this. The innovation basket remains under pressure, consistent with the NASDAQ’s continued month-to-date drawdown of -5.56%.

Healthcare & Defence

Biotech outperformed defence today. XBI gained +1.49% — one of the better sector reads on the session. IBB added a modest +0.13%. Defence was flat to marginally lower: ITA slipped -0.07%, XAR -0.19%. The biotech strength is worth noting given the broader market weakness — XBI has now gained +26.52% year-to-date and continues to attract relative buying interest even on difficult tape days.

Consumer, Finance & Specialty

Oil and gas exploration led emphatically. XOP surged +2.25%, building on a strong week (+7.32%). Homebuilders (XHB) were the worst performer at -2.30% — a notable move lower as rates and consumer sentiment weigh. Fintech (FINX) dropped -2.02%. Regional banks (KRE) fell -1.58%, retail (XRT) -1.17%. Transportation (IYT) shed -0.89%. The consumer and financial space is under clear pressure, whilst energy continues to be the line in the sand for bulls in this tape.

Stock Screener

S&P 500 Top 20

The S&P 500 fell -1.01% on the session. Our screener’s top-ranked names tell a different story. Travelers (TRV) led the daily list at +9.22%, a standout move in financials. Centene (CNC) gained +3.99% and Humana (HUM) +3.50% — healthcare showing strength. Allstate (ALL) added +3.32%. Energy names featured prominently: Valero (VLO) +3.13%, Diamondback (FANG) +2.85%, Phillips 66 (PSX) +2.75%. Financial services and energy dominate today’s top-ranked names, which fits the sector rotation story perfectly.

Russell 2000 Top 20

The Russell 2000 fell -0.42%, holding up better than its large-cap peers. Our watchlist from the small-cap universe was dominated by healthcare. Southland Holdings (SLND) surged +67.33% — a significant single-name move in industrials. Healthcare names swept the remaining top positions: Xencor (XNCR) +16.86%, Eton Pharmaceuticals (ETON) +13.79%, Sellas Life Sciences (SLS) +12.26%, Sionna Therapeutics (SION) +9.10%. Biotech and small-cap healthcare are clearly where relative strength is concentrating right now.

52-Week New Highs

S&P 500

The S&P 500 produced 51 new 52-week highs today — a solid number given the index fell -1.01%. Financial Services led with 13 new highs, Industrials and Real Estate both contributed 8, Consumer Defensive added 5 and Healthcare 4. Notable names making new highs include Travelers (TRV), Starbucks (SBUX), Target (TGT), Merck (MRK), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and Dominion Energy (D). The breadth here is encouraging and tells us the market’s internal structure is healthier than the headline index move suggests.

Russell 2000

Small-caps produced an impressive 114 new 52-week highs today. Financials dominated with 36, Real Estate contributed 25, Health Care 18, Industrials 12, and Consumer Discretionary 7. Notable names include First Tracks Biotherapeutics (TRAX), Perma-Fix Environmental (PESI), Trident NGL (TRNO), Chef’s Warehouse (CHEF), and BioLife Solutions (BLFS). That breadth reading — 114 new highs on a down day for the index — is a meaningful positive divergence. Small-cap internals remain robust even as the headline number drifts.

FTSE 250

The FTSE 250 registered 15 new 52-week highs. The sector classification skews towards N/A categories (9), with Financial Services adding 2, Food Producers 1, Consumer Cyclical 1, and Investment Trusts 1. Named stocks making new highs include Man Group (EMG.L), Apax Global Alpha (APN.L), Mercantile Investment Trust (MRC.L), Murray Income Trust (MUT.L), and Moonpig (MOON.L). A respectable reading for the UK mid-cap index, which continues to quietly outperform its European peers on both a weekly and monthly basis.

FTSE 100

Just 2 new 52-week highs from the FTSE 100 today — a modest print. Life insurance and Multiline utilities were the contributing sectors. The two names are SDLF.L and MTLN.L. The thin reading reflects the more cautious tone across large-cap UK equities despite the index’s +0.27% gain on the session. Breadth here is a yellow flag — price is holding but the new-high list is not expanding meaningfully. We will watch whether that improves into next week.

Markets

SPX — S&P 500

NDX — Nasdaq 100

GC1! — Gold Futures

DX1! — US Dollar

EURUSD — EUR/USD

BTCUSD — Bitcoin

Disclaimer

This publication is produced for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this article, including the written commentary, charts, images, data, and any internal or external links, constitutes financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other form of professional financial guidance.

The content reflects the author’s analysis of publicly available market data and is shared solely to inform and educate. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Markets can and do move against any position or analysis presented here.

You should always conduct your own independent research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher accept no liability whatsoever

Summary

• S&P 500 (SPX) → down -0.51% to 7,533.77 · large-cap growth dragged lower by technology; defensives cushioned the fall

• NASDAQ 100 (NDX) → down -1.62% · ran into resistance as semiconductor names collapsed; worst US index on the day

• Russell 2000 (RUT) → nearly flat at -0.06% · small caps held their ground, continuing to show relative strength

• Gold (GLD) → down -1.98% · pulled back sharply; silver (SLV) even worse at -3.49% · commodities under heavy pressure

• Bitcoin (IBIT) → down -1.14% · gave back ground after a strong MTD run of +9.31%

• FTSE 250 → up +1.08% · the standout global index on the day; UK mid-caps led the charge

• KOSPI → down -6.37% · single worst index globally; a significant yellow flag for Asia Pacific risk appetite

• VIX → up +6.76% to 16.73 · volatility is rising; risk-off tone building beneath the surface

• XLP (Consumer Staples) → up +2.80% · top SPDR sector; defensive rotation firmly underway

• SOXX (Semiconductors) → down -4.46% · worst thematic ETF on the day; semis are the epicentre of today’s pain

Asset Classes

Cross-Asset Daily Returns

Here is the breakdown. Cash (SGOV, +0.01%) was the only asset class that finished in the green today — that tells you everything about the risk appetite on offer. The Russell 2000 (-0.06%) was the least-bad equity index. The S&P 500 dropped -0.51%, the NASDAQ 100 fell -1.62%, Bitcoin shed -1.14%, Gold dropped -1.98%, and Silver was hit hardest at -3.49%. Eight out of eight assets negative or flat. This is a clear risk-off session.

Performance by Asset Class

Cash was the winner by default, barely positive at +0.01%. Fixed income (GOVT) slipped -0.04%, offering no flight-to-quality bid today. Equities were broadly weaker, with NASDAQ leading losses. Commodities were the worst asset class — both metals sold off aggressively. Alternatives (Bitcoin) also declined. No green shoots in risk assets today.

World Indices

Performance by Region

North America was mixed in direction but uniformly soft. The NYSE Composite was the lone bright spot at +0.33%, whilst the NASDAQ 100 bore the brunt at -1.62%. Europe outperformed convincingly — the FTSE 250 gained +1.08%, the FTSE 100 added +0.54%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 rose +0.29%. The DAX slipped -0.34%. In China, the Hang Seng continued its strong MTD run, adding +1.33%, whilst the Shanghai Composite fell -1.85%. India was broadly sideways — Nifty 50 down just -0.02%.

Asia Pacific + Market Sentiment + US Treasury Yields

Asia Pacific was a tale of two markets. The Nikkei 225 dropped -2.79% and the KOSPI fell a sharp -6.37% — a significant move that warrants attention. The ASX 200 was flat (-0.00%). The VIX jumped +6.76% to 16.73, and the VXN surged +6.59% to 27.34. Volatility is moving in one direction. On the rate side, the 5-year yield rose +0.63% to 4.28% and the 10-year climbed +0.53% to 4.57% — yields are pushing higher even as equities fall.

Global Daily Bar Chart

The FTSE 250 was the best performing index globally on the day, gaining +1.08% — a sign that UK domestic mid-caps are finding buyers as global tech rolls over. At the other end, the KOSPI’s -6.37% collapse stands out as the single worst reading worldwide. When the world’s top YTD performer (up +61.85%) starts giving back gains at this pace, it signals the unwinding of a crowded trade. Yellow flag for Asia Pacific momentum.

Rates & Treasuries

Bond ETF Daily Returns

Only three ETFs finished in positive territory today. GOVZ (25+ year STRIPS) eked out +0.03%, HYDB gained +0.02%, and USHY added +0.01%. Everything else was red. IEF fell -0.06%, TLT slipped -0.04%, and the worst performer was AGZ (Agency Bond ETF) at -0.26%. Government bonds provided no safe-haven cushion. High yield was modestly better, with HYG essentially flat at -0.01%. Eleven of fifteen ETFs finished negative.

Returns Chart

The bar chart tells a straightforward story: government bonds underperformed high yield across the duration spectrum today. The long end is being punished as yields tick higher — TLT and TLH both in the red. High yield credit (HYG, HYDB, USHY) held up considerably better, which is an interesting nuance. When high yield outperforms government bonds in a risk-off equity session, it suggests the sell pressure is rate-driven rather than credit-fear driven. Risk appetite signal: mixed.

Yield Curve

The regime is a Bear Flattener. The curve is mildly upward sloping with 2s10s at +0.42% and 5s30s at +0.82%. Key yields: 2Y at 4.13% (down 8bp over 1 week), 10Y at 4.55% (down 1bp over 1 week), 30Y at 5.08% (up 2bp over 1 week). The short end is rallying slightly on a weekly basis whilst the long end is creeping higher — classic Bear Flattener dynamics. The 30-year at 5.08% is a line in the sand for long-duration assets.

ETF Sectors

SPDR Sectors

The defensive rotation is unmistakable. Consumer Staples (XLP) led all sectors at +2.80%, followed by Real Estate (XLRE, +2.02%) and Healthcare (XLV, +2.22%). Energy (XLE) added +0.92%. On the other side, Technology (XLK) was the clear laggard, down -2.24%, with Communication Services (XLC) also in the red at -0.64%. When staples, healthcare, and real estate lead and technology lags, the market is telling us investors are rotating out of growth and into defence.

Tech Thematic

Semiconductors were the epicentre of today’s pain. SOXX dropped -4.46% and SMH fell -3.70% — both ran hard into resistance after strong YTD runs. Cybersecurity also sold off, with CIBR down -1.29% and HACK falling -1.02%. IGV (software) slipped -0.26%. The one bright spot was WCLD (cloud computing), which gained +0.49% — the lone green flag in tech thematic today. Semis have now shed -17.21% MTD for SOXX. That is not a small number.

ARK Innovation

Every single ARK fund was in the red today. ARKK led losses at -3.68%, followed by ARKQ at -2.78% and ARKG at -2.74%. ARKW fell -2.59%, ARKF and ARKX both dropped -2.52%. ARKF is the relative survivor on a YTD basis at -13.21%, though that is cold comfort. The synchronised decline across all six ARK funds reinforces the risk-off read — speculative and innovation-heavy names are being sold without discrimination today.

Healthcare & Defence

Both healthcare and defence came under pressure today, though the split matters. IBB (broad biotech) held up relatively well, down just -0.21%, whilst XBI (smaller-cap biotech) fell -2.70%. On the defence side, both ITA (-2.34%) and XAR (-2.73%) sold off meaningfully. Biotech is showing internal divergence — the large-cap names are holding whilst smaller biotechs get hit. Defence’s pullback is worth monitoring given its strong YTD base of +7.55% (ITA).

Consumer, Finance & Specialty

Regional banking (KRE) was the standout, surging +2.82% on the day — a strong showing that suggests confidence in the domestic credit environment. Transportation (IYT) added +2.81% and homebuilders (XHB) gained +1.73%. Retail (XRT) was up +1.55% and energy exploration (XOP) added +0.96%. The laggard was FinTech (FINX) at -1.26%. The breadth in this group is genuinely encouraging — consumer and finance names are holding up well even as large-cap tech collapses.

Stock Screener

S&P 500 Top 20

The S&P 500 fell -0.51% today, but our screener’s top-ranked names tell a very different story. Abbott Laboratories led the daily list with a +10.71% gain, followed by J.B. Hunt (+8.01%) and Erie Indemnity (+7.49%). Healthcare dominated the top of the daily list — ABT, DXCM, BIIB, MCK, and BAX all featured. Industrials were well-represented too with JBHT, CTAS, IR, ODFL, and VRSK. In the refined scored list, ODFL, PANW, VLO, PM, and JBHT all score 92/100 — the highest-quality setups on our watchlist right now.

Russell 2000 Top 20

The Russell 2000 held nearly flat at -0.06%, and our top-ranked names in the small-cap universe showed real firepower. CareDx (CDNA) surged +35.60%, Distribution Solutions Group (DSGR) gained +25.29%, and Oportun Financial (OPRT) added +13.76%. Health Care and Consumer Discretionary dominated the daily list. In the refined scored names, MRVI, LCNB, ZGN, TCBK, JAKK, and BVS all score 92/100 — six names at the top of the range. Financials and Health Care are the dominant sectors across our small-cap watchlist.

52-Week New Highs

S&P 500

The S&P 500 produced 41 new 52-week highs today — a solid number given the broad market decline. Financial Services led the way with 13 names, followed by Industrials (8), Healthcare (4), Real Estate (4), and Energy (3). Notable names hitting new highs include Humana (HUM), UnitedHealth (UNH), State Street (STT), Best Buy (BBY), Invesco (IVZ), Airbnb (ABNB), CVS Health (CVS), and BNY Mellon (BNY). The breadth in financials is particularly noteworthy — 13 new highs in that sector signals genuine institutional accumulation.

Russell 2000

The Russell 2000 delivered an impressive 217 new 52-week highs — a number that stands in sharp contrast to the weakness visible in large-cap tech. Financials absolutely dominated with 128 names, followed by Health Care (25), Real Estate (22), Industrials (17), and Consumer Discretionary (7). Notable names include PESI, SEZL, ANGO, AGL, ETON, ELVN, PRVA, BSVN, ADPT, and TDOC. The sheer volume of small-cap new highs, concentrated in financials and healthcare, is a powerful internal breadth signal. Small caps are leading, not lagging.

FTSE 250

The FTSE 250 produced 12 new 52-week highs today, a respectable showing that aligns with the index’s +1.08% daily gain — its best performance among global indices. The list spans Financial Services (2), Industrials (2), Food Producers (1), and Consumer Cyclical (1), with six names in uncategorised sectors. Names hitting new highs include FCH.L, APN.L, HILS.L, EMG.L, ROR.L, MRC.L, 3IN.L, ASL.L, HSL.L, and RCP.L. UK mid-caps are quietly putting in a strong session whilst global attention focuses elsewhere.

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 posted just 2 new 52-week highs today — MTLN.L (multiline utilities) and SDLF.L (life insurance). A thin number, but the index itself gained +0.54%, so the underlying bid is there even if breakouts are scarce. The two names hitting new highs are both defensive, income-oriented businesses — consistent with the broader defensive rotation we are seeing across global markets today. Quality over quantity here. The FTSE 100’s YTD gain of +6.45% continues to quietly compound.

Markets

SPX — S&P 500

NDX — Nasdaq 100

GC1! — Gold Futures

DX1! — US Dollar

EURUSD — EUR/USD

BTCUSD — Bitcoin

Disclaimer

This publication is produced for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this article, including the written commentary, charts, images, data, and any internal or external links, constitutes financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other form of professional financial guidance.

The content reflects the author’s analysis of publicly available market data and is shared solely to inform and educate. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Markets can and do move against any position or analysis presented here.

You should always conduct your own independent research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher accept no liability whatsoeve

Summary

• Bitcoin (IBIT) → +0.63% daily, led all assets; risk appetite intact at the margin

• Russell 2000 (^RUT) → +0.39%, at 2,976; small-caps outpaced large-caps on the day

• S&P 500 (^SPX) → +0.38%, at 7,572; broad advance but breadth mixed beneath the surface

• NASDAQ 100 (^NDX) → -0.28%, at 29,502; dragged by semiconductor selling

• US Treasuries (GOVT) → +0.18%; yields fell across the belly — 5Y down 1.53%, 10Y down 0.87%

• Silver (SLV) → -1.81%, the clear laggard; commodities soft across the board

• Communication Services (XLC) → +1.73%, best SPDR sector on the day

• Technology (XLK) → -1.11%, worst SPDR sector; semis dragged the complex lower

• KOSPI → +6.24%, the standout global index; Hang Seng +1.40% and Nikkei +1.49% both strong

• VIX → -5.03% to 15.67; fear dissipating — a constructive signal for equities

Asset Classes

Cross-Asset Daily Returns

Here is the breakdown for Wednesday. Bitcoin led the charge at +0.63%, followed by Russell 2000 (+0.39%) and S&P 500 (+0.38%). Treasuries added +0.18% — unusual company at the top of the leaderboard alongside equities. Gold was essentially flat at +0.05%. The NASDAQ 100 slipped -0.28%, and Silver dropped -1.81%, the only meaningful loser. What jumps out immediately is the simultaneous gain in equities and bonds — a mixed signal. Not cleanly risk-on, not risk-off. Call it a yellow flag on directionality.

Performance by Asset Class

Alternatives led — Bitcoin +0.63%. Equities were broadly positive with the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both advancing, though the NASDAQ lagged. Fixed Income supported by falling yields — GOVT +0.18%. Commodities struggled: Gold flat, Silver off sharply. Cash (SGOV) returned a nominal +0.02%. The breadth across asset classes suggests selective risk appetite rather than a broad risk-on surge.

World Indices

Performance by Region

North America was mixed. Russell 2000 (+0.39%) and S&P 500 (+0.38%) edged higher. TSX Composite added +0.27%. The Dow gained +0.29%. The NASDAQ dragged with -0.28%. Europe was soft — DAX dropped -0.59%, Euro Stoxx 50 fell -0.23%, FTSE 100 slipped -0.13%. The FTSE 250 bucked the trend, adding +0.24%. CAC 40 managed +0.19%. India was broadly positive but Nifty IT fell -0.67% and Nifty FMCG gave back -0.49%.

Asia Pacific + Market Sentiment + US Treasury Yields

Asia Pacific led globally. KOSPI surged +6.24% — the dominant move of the session. Nikkei 225 added +1.49%. ASX 200 gained +0.37%. In China, the Hang Seng climbed +1.40% whilst Shanghai Composite dipped -0.29%. The VIX fell -5.03% to 15.67 — that is a constructive read. VXN dropped -2.40%. Treasury yields declined across maturities: 5Y -1.53%, 10Y -0.87%, 30Y -0.22%. Falling yields and falling volatility together support equities, particularly rate-sensitive sectors.

Global Daily Bar Chart

The single best performing index on the day was the KOSPI Composite at +6.24% — a move of that magnitude in a major index demands attention and signals either a significant macro catalyst or short-squeeze dynamics in Korean equities. The worst performer was the DAX at -0.59%, reflecting continued weakness in European cyclicals and a market that has failed to regain momentum this month.

Rates & Treasuries

Bond ETF Daily Returns

Government bonds outperformed across the board. TLH led at +0.26%, followed by IEF (+0.25%) and IEI (+0.21%). TLT added +0.19%. GOVT gained +0.18%. GOVZ was the lone decliner at -0.01% — the ultra-long zero-coupon strip remains volatile. On the credit side, FALN posted +0.22%, HYG +0.16%, HYDB +0.16%, USHY +0.15%. Fourteen of fifteen ETFs closed positive. That is near-universal strength in fixed income on the day.

Returns Chart

Government bonds and high yield moved in the same direction today — both positive. That simultaneous rally signals reduced credit stress rather than a flight-to-quality. When high yield joins the government bond rally, it typically reflects easing financial conditions rather than defensive repositioning. The average daily return across all 15 bond ETFs was +0.17%. A broad, synchronised bounce in fixed income is worth noting.

Yield Curve

The curve is classified as a Bear Flattener regime with a mildly upward shape. The 2s10s spread sits at +0.40% and 5s30s at +0.77%. Today, yields fell in the belly — 5Y -1.53 bps and 10Y -0.87 bps — whilst the long end (30Y) slipped just -0.22 bps. On a one-week basis, shorter tenors are lower whilst the 5Y and longer maturities have drifted +3–5 bps. The 10Y sits at 4.58% and the 30Y at 5.08%. The curve is not steep enough to flag recession risk, but the Bear Flattener regime reminds us that the long-end term premium remains elevated.

ETF Sectors

SPDR Sectors

Communication Services (XLC) led on the day at +1.73%, powered by Alphabet’s strong session. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) added +0.95% and Financials (XLF) gained +0.68%. Real Estate (XLRE) added +0.18% and Consumer Staples (XLP) was flat at +0.06%. On the downside, Technology (XLK) fell -1.11%, Utilities (XLU) dropped -1.03%, and Energy (XLE) slipped -0.79%. The rotation today was away from the high-valuation technology complex and into value-oriented financials and communication names. Defensive versus growth was mixed — not a clear risk-off day.

Tech Thematic

Semiconductors had a rough session. SOXX dropped -2.23% and SMH fell -1.59% — both ran into resistance after extended MTD weakness of -13.34% and -9.93% respectively. Cybersecurity also pulled back: HACK -2.67%, CIBR -1.73%. Cloud computing (WCLD) held up better at -0.84%. The sole bright spot was software — IGV gained +0.33%, a modest outperformer as the market rotated within tech. Semis remain the line in the sand for NASDAQ momentum.

ARK Innovation

ARKF (Fintech Innovation) led the ARK complex at +0.88%, consistent with the broader fintech and financial services strength on the day. ARKG (Genomic Revolution) added +0.41%. ARKK was essentially flat at +0.10%. ARKW gave back -0.20%. The laggards were ARKQ (-0.62%) and ARKX (-0.55%) — both exposed to robotics and space names that tracked semiconductor weakness. The ARK suite remains internally divided, with genomics and fintech holding whilst autonomy and robotics drift.

Healthcare & Defence

Biotech was the clear winner in this grouping. IBB gained +0.65% and XBI added +0.50% — both finding support after recent MTD softness. Defence was mixed: ITA added +0.49% whilst XAR slipped -0.09%. The divergence within aerospace and defence is a yellow flag — broad sector momentum is not yet confirmed. Biotech’s positive close aligns with the broader healthcare rotation we are tracking in the Russell 2000 new highs data.

Consumer, Finance & Specialty

Fintech led this group — FINX surged +2.43%, the standout name. Retail (XRT) added +1.50% and regional banking (KRE) gained +1.04%. IYG (financial services) rose +1.05%. Homebuilders (XHB) added +0.70%. Energy-related names lagged: XOP fell -0.60%. Transportation (IYT) was flat at -0.08%. Financials and consumer names are clearly driving today’s positive breadth in small and mid-cap land. The fintech move is particularly notable given FINX is already +5.75% MTD.

Stock Screener

S&P 500 Top 20

The S&P 500 closed up +0.38%. The daily raw selection was dominated by Financial Services, which placed five names in the top ten alone. PayPal (PYPL) was the standout mover at +17.20% — a massive single-session gain that sits atop every timeframe in the raw screen. BlackRock (BLK) added +6.63%, CBRE Group gained +6.22%, and Invesco (IVZ) rose +5.46%. Apple (AAPL) made the top 10 at +4.01%, a strong showing. Alphabet appeared twice — GOOG +3.60% and GOOGL +3.17%. From our refined scored list, the top-ranked names are GS, AAPL, PANW, DDOG, GOOG, FTNT, and XYZ — all scoring 92/100. These are the names on our watchlist trading at or near 52-week highs with full technical alignment.

Russell 2000 Top 20

The Russell 2000 gained +0.39%. Health Care dominated the daily raw selection with eight names in the top 20. SOLESENCE INC (SLSN) surged +29.79%, followed by AEHR TEST SYSTEMS (AEHR) at +21.91% and IOVANCE BIOTHERAPEUTICS (IOVA) at +20.61%. Real estate names COMPASS (COMP) and RE/MAX (RMAX) also appeared. Our screener’s top-ranked names from the refined list include RMAX, TWST, ANGO, SHLS, DFTX, ALMS, ATEX, BVS, IOVA, ELVN, TNGX, and MRVI — twelve names scoring 92/100. Health Care overwhelmingly dominates the quality end of the Russell 2000 watchlist right now.

52-Week New Highs

S&P 500

Twenty-three S&P 500 names hit 52-week highs on Wednesday. Financial Services led with nine names — a strong signal of sustained institutional buying in the sector. Technology contributed four names. Notable names making new highs include Fortinet (FTNT), F5 Inc (FFIV), Block Inc (XYZ), Ventas (VTR), Corpay (CPAY), CVS Health (CVS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Targa Resources (TRGP), Airbnb (ABNB), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC). The energy and consumer cyclical contingent adds further breadth. Twenty-three new highs in the S&P 500 is a healthy reading — not euphoric, but constructive.

Russell 2000

Eighty-eight Russell 2000 names printed 52-week highs today — the broadest reading across all four indices. Financials led with 30 names, followed by Health Care (18), Industrials (13), and Real Estate (10). Notable names include TBI, ALIT, TENB, NODK, FVR, BJRI, QLYS, FTK, SI, and GCMG. Eighty-eight new highs in the small-cap index is a significant breadth expansion. When financials and healthcare together drive this many new highs in the Russell 2000, it speaks to genuine rotational strength well beyond the mega-cap technology narrative.

FTSE 250

Nine FTSE 250 names hit 52-week highs on Wednesday. The list includes SUPR.L, BGFD.L, WOSG.L, APN.L, HILS.L, 3IN.L, TRST.L, ASL.L, and TCAP.L. Sectors represented include Consumer Cyclical, Food Producers, Industrials, and Technology. Nine new highs is a modest but positive reading for the mid-cap UK index, which has been quietly outperforming the FTSE 100 on both a daily and MTD basis — the FTSE 250 added +0.24% today versus the FTSE 100’s -0.13%.

FTSE 100

A single FTSE 100 name hit a 52-week high today — SDLF.L in the Life Insurance sector. One new high in the large-cap UK index is a thin reading and reflects the index’s struggles this session, closing down -0.13%. The FTSE 100 remains +5.89% YTD but is clearly lagging its mid-cap sibling. With European indices broadly soft today, this is not a surprise — but it is a data point worth watching as we track whether the FTSE 100 can reclaim upside momentum heading into the back half of July.

Markets

SPX — S&P 500

NDX — Nasdaq 100

GC1! — Gold Futures

DX1! — US Dollar

EURUSD — EUR/USD

BTCUSD — Bitcoin

Disclaimer

This publication is produced for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this article, including the written commentary, charts, images, data, and any internal or external links, constitutes financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other form of professional financial guidance.

The content reflects the author’s analysis of publicly available market data and is shared solely to inform and educate. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Markets can and do move against any position or analysis presented here.

You should always conduct your own independent research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from your use of, or reliance on, the information contained in this publication.

Summary

• Bitcoin (IBIT) → +3.86% · led all assets on the day; risk-on tone with alternatives and commodities outperforming

• Silver (SLV) → +1.94% · best commodity; gold +1.37%; precious metals synchronized bounce

• NASDAQ 100 → +1.10% · tech led equities; S&P 500 +0.38%, Russell 2000 +0.39%

• US Treasuries (GOVT) → +0.22% · bonds rallied as yields pulled back across all tenors

• VIX → -3.85% to 16.50 · volatility fell, confirming the risk-on tone

• Cybersecurity → HACK +4.58%, CIBR +3.15% · led all ETF themes; semiconductors also surged

• Goldman Sachs → +9.00% · standout in our S&P 500 screener; financial services and technology dominated

• S&P 500 new highs: 26 names, led by Financial Services; Russell 2000 printed 58 new highs

Asset Classes

Cross-Asset Daily Returns

Here is the breakdown. Bitcoin led the charge at +3.86%, followed by silver (+1.94%) and gold (+1.37%). That podium — alternatives and commodities on top — signals a risk-on, inflation-hedge hybrid tone rather than a clean equity-growth day. The NASDAQ 100 added +1.10%, outpacing the S&P 500 (+0.38%) and Russell 2000 (+0.39%). Treasuries gained +0.22%. Cash was flat. Every single asset class finished in positive territory. That is a rare, broadly constructive session.

Performance by Asset Class

Alternatives led with Bitcoin’s +3.86% surge. Commodities were second — silver and gold rallying together. Equities were positive across the board, with NASDAQ 100 the clear equity leader. Fixed Income gained modestly as yields dipped. Cash was effectively unchanged, as expected from short-duration T-bills.

World Indices

Performance by Region

North America posted solid gains — NASDAQ 100 +1.10%, Russell 2000 +0.39%, S&P 500 +0.38%. The S&P/TSX Composite added +0.19%. Europe was quiet but positive: FTSE 100 +0.30%, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.15%, DAX +0.13%. China bounced — Shanghai Composite +1.36%, Hang Seng +0.52%. India was the notable laggard; Nifty Auto fell -1.61%, Nifty Bank dropped -1.15%, and Nifty IT gave back -1.00%. European indices led the charge for consistency; India dragged on Asia overall.

Asia Pacific, Volatility & Treasury Yields

KOSPI added +0.73% and Nikkei 225 gained +0.74% — a tidy synchronized bounce across Asia Pacific ex-India. The ASX 200 was flat at +0.00%. What jumps out immediately is the VIX: it fell -3.85% to 16.50. VXN dropped -3.74% to 26.28. Falling volatility on a broad up-day confirms genuine risk appetite, not a dead-cat rally. US Treasury yields declined across all tenors — the 5-year fell -0.96%, the 10-year -0.52%, and the 30-year a modest -0.08%.

Global Daily Bar Chart

The standout index on the day was the Shanghai Composite at +1.36% — China found support and bounced convincingly after a rough MTD (-3.11%). On the other end, the Nifty Auto Index was the worst performer globally at -1.61%. That split — China rebounding whilst India’s cyclicals sell off — is worth monitoring for regional capital rotation signals heading into the back half of July.

Rates & Treasuries

Bond ETF Daily Returns

14 of 15 bond ETFs gained on the day. IEF (7–10 year Treasuries) led government bonds at +0.28%, with IEI (+0.25%), TLH (+0.23%), and GOVT (+0.22%) close behind. TLT added a more modest +0.13%. The sole decliner was GOVZ (25+ year STRIPS) at -0.16% — its extreme duration sensitivity cutting against it even on a mild yield-down day. On the credit side, FALN gained +0.26%, HYG +0.20%, and HYDB +0.20%. Government and high-yield moved together — a clear risk-on read.

Returns Chart

Both government bonds and high-yield credit gained on the day. That is not a flight-to-safety move — it is a simultaneous rally driven by falling yields and expanding risk appetite. When HYG and IEF rise in tandem, the bond market is not pricing in fear. It is pricing in a Goldilocks window: rates easing slightly, credit spreads stable, no recession signal in the near term.

Yield Curve

The curve sits in a Bear Flattener regime with a mildly upward shape. The 2s10s spread is +0.36% and the 5s30s is +0.73%. Today’s session offered a temporary reprieve — yields fell across all tenors on a daily basis, with the front end (5-year, -0.96%) outpacing the long end (30-year, -0.08%). Key tenor yields: 2Y at 4.26%, 5Y at 4.37%, 10Y at 4.62%, 30Y at 5.10%. Over the past week, every tenor from 1Y to 30Y is up 11–17 basis points — the bear flattener trend remains firmly intact despite today’s pause.

ETF Sectors

SPDR Sectors

Technology (XLK) led on the day at +1.29% — growth taking the baton. Energy (XLE) added +0.37%, financials (XLF) +0.20%, and materials (XLB) +0.12%. The laggards tell the defensive rotation story in reverse: Health Care (XLV) dropped -1.93%, Consumer Staples (XLP) fell -1.38%, Real Estate (XLRE) -0.49%. When defensives sell off on a risk-on day, that is confirmation, not concern. Utilities slipped -0.07%. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) dipped -0.12%.

Tech Thematic

Cybersecurity was the clear standout. HACK surged +4.58% and CIBR gained +3.15% — both leading all tech thematics by a wide margin. Semiconductors were strong: SOXX +2.58%, SMH +2.51%. Cloud computing (WCLD) added +1.14% and software (IGV) gained +1.00%. Every tech thematic was positive on the day. This is a broad-based tech bid, not a narrow sector move. Semiconductors continue to recover from a rough MTD (-11.37% for SOXX) — today’s session is a step in the right direction.

ARK Innovation

All six ARK funds gained on the day — another marker of the risk-on tone. ARKF (Fintech Innovation) led at +1.74%, followed by ARKW (Next Generation Internet) at +1.67% and ARKK (Innovation) at +1.64%. ARKX (Space) added +1.41%, ARKQ (Robotics) +1.31%, and ARKG (Genomic Revolution) +1.13%. The ARK family moving in unison — and to the upside — reinforces the broad speculative risk appetite we saw across Bitcoin and high-growth equities today.

Healthcare & Defence

A split session here. On the defence side, XAR (Aerospace & Defence) gained +0.90% and ITA added a modest +0.09%. Biotech was mixed: XBI eked out +0.07% whilst IBB slipped -0.46%. Healthcare broadly underperformed the market today — XLV was the worst SPDR sector at -1.93%. That is a yellow flag, not a red flag, for healthcare bulls. The sector’s YTD gain of +2.25% leaves plenty of runway if the rotation reverses.

Consumer, Finance & Specialty

Homebuilders (XHB) were the surprise outperformer in this group at +1.02%, likely catching a tailwind from softer Treasury yields. Oil and gas (XOP) added +0.40%, retail (XRT) +0.35%, and financial services (IYG) +0.64%. Regional banks (KRE) were essentially flat at -0.16%. Transportation (IYT) slipped -0.48%. Fintech (FINX) gained a marginal +0.12%. The energy complex continues to build momentum — XOP is up +7.51% month-to-date and +31.36% year-to-date.

Stock Screener

S&P 500 Top 20

The S&P 500 gained +0.38% on the day. Our screener’s daily raw leaders were dominated by technology — and one massive financial services outlier. Goldman Sachs (GS) ran +9.00% to lead the entire S&P 500 list. Zscaler (ZS) surged +7.24% and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) gained +6.84%. Dell Technologies (DELL) added +7.12% and Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) rose +6.58%. Of the 43 stocks scored in our refined list, eight names earned top marks, led by NTAP, FTNT, AMD, GS, HPE, PANW, DELL, and AMAT — all scoring 92/100. Technology and financial services dominate the top-ranked names.

Russell 2000 Top 20

The Russell 2000 gained +0.39%. Our screener’s daily leaders were wild — Americas Car-Mart (CRMT) surged +41.72%, a clear stock-specific catalyst. Actuate Therapeutics (ACTU) gained +15.33% and Shoals Technologies (SHLS) added +14.47%. Health Care and Information Technology dominated the daily raw list. In the refined scoring, 12 names achieved 92/100: ELVN, ATEX, PENG, MEI, TCBK, CTRN, AMBQ, DFTX, TRVI, and TWST lead our watchlist. Health Care and Information Technology are the dominant sectors across our top-ranked Russell 2000 names.

52-Week New Highs

S&P 500

The S&P 500 printed 26 new 52-week highs on Tuesday. Financial Services dominated with 10 names — the largest single-sector contribution. Industrials contributed 5 names and Energy added 4. Notable names making new highs include Goldman Sachs (MS, MTB, PNC, NTRS in banking and financial services), utilities EIX, insurer ELV and PFG, and rail giant UNP. The breadth of financial services names at new highs is consistent with the sector’s strong month-to-date performance (+4.79% for XLF).

Russell 2000

A strong breadth day for small-caps — 58 new 52-week highs. Financials led with 13 names, Health Care contributed 12, Industrials 8, Energy and Information Technology 6 each. Notable names include IKT, RDN, PAYS, ELMD, SYRE, TOI, TRNS, MSBI, EAT, and RSI. The depth and diversity of sectors hitting new highs in the Russell 2000 — financials, healthcare, industrials, energy — confirms this is not a narrow momentum spike. Broad participation at the small-cap level is a constructive signal for the index.

FTSE 250

The FTSE 250 produced 8 new 52-week highs. Sectors represented include Financial Services (2 names), Real Estate (1), Travel and Leisure (1), and Food Producers (1). Names hitting new highs include RCP.L, DLN.L, EZJ.L, ASL.L, APN.L, TCAP.L, HILS.L, and FCH.L. EasyJet (EZJ.L) making a new high is a notable data point for the consumer recovery trade in the UK. Modest breadth overall — 8 names is a respectable but not exceptional reading for the mid-cap index.

FTSE 100

Just one new 52-week high in the FTSE 100 today — SDLF.L in Life Insurance. Thin breadth at the large-cap UK level. The index itself gained +0.30% on the day and sits up +6.02% year-to-date, but the new-high count tells us leadership is not widening meaningfully. That is a yellow flag worth watching as we move through July. One name at a 52-week high is not a signal in itself, but consistent single-digit readings would warrant attention.

Markets

SPX — S&P 500

NDX — Nasdaq 100

GC1! — Gold Futures

DX1! — US Dollar

EURUSD — EUR/USD

BTCUSD — Bitcoin

Disclaimer

This publication is produced for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this article, including the written commentary, charts, images, data, and any internal or external links, constitutes financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other form of professional financial guidance.

The content reflects the author’s analysis of publicly available market data and is shared solely to inform and educate. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Markets can and do move against any position or analysis presented here.

You should always conduct your own independent research and consult a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher accept no liability whatsoever for

Summary

• Cash (SGOV): +0.02% — the only asset in positive territory; flight to safety the clear read

• S&P 500 (SPX): -0.79% to 7,515.34 — pulled back; defensives held whilst growth sold off

• NASDAQ 100 (NDX): -1.88% to 29,264.10 — tech ran into resistance; semis led the decline

• Russell 2000 (RUT): -0.83% to 2,953.17 — small caps gave back ground alongside large caps

• Gold (GLD): -2.62% — found no safe-haven bid; precious metals dragged lower

• Silver (SLV): -3.32% — worst performer among commodities; notable underperformance

• Bitcoin (IBIT): -2.79% — risk-off across alternatives; crypto sold in unison with growth assets

• US Treasuries (GOVT): -0.29% — bonds fell alongside equities; no flight-to-quality signal

• Energy (XLE/XOP): +3.01% / +4.17% — the single bright spot; oil and gas led the charge

Asset Classes

Cross-Asset Daily Returns

Here is the breakdown. Cash topped the leaderboard at +0.02%. Everything else finished in the red. The ranking from worst to best: Silver (-3.32%), Bitcoin (-2.79%), Gold (-2.62%), NASDAQ 100 (-1.88%), Russell 2000 (-0.83%), S&P 500 (-0.79%), Treasuries (-0.29%), Cash (+0.02%). This is unambiguously risk-off. What jumps out immediately is that neither bonds nor gold provided shelter — both fell alongside equities. That is a stagflation-adjacent signal worth watching.

Performance by Asset Class

Cash was the sole winner. Fixed income posted -0.29% (GOVT), with selling across all durations. Equities fell in a tight pack: S&P 500 -0.79%, Russell 2000 -0.83%, NASDAQ 100 -1.88%. Commodities were the weakest asset class on the day — gold -2.62%, silver -3.32%. Alternatives offered no refuge either; Bitcoin dropped -2.79%. No asset class delivered a meaningful positive return. A clean risk-off sweep.

World Indices

Performance by Region

North America sold off broadly. NASDAQ 100 led losses at -1.88%, dragging the S&P 500 (-0.79%) and Russell 2000 (-0.83%) lower. The Dow (-0.26%) and NYSE Composite (-0.12%) held up relatively better — a large-cap defensive tilt. Canada’s TSX barely moved at -0.15%. Europe was the standout contrast: all five major indices closed in green, led by CAC 40 (+0.31%) and DAX (+0.19%). China was split — Shanghai Composite dropped -2.06% whilst the Hang Seng edged +0.16%. India’s Nifty IT surged +3.59%, the single strongest index on the day globally.

Asia Pacific, Volatility and Yields

Asia Pacific told a dramatic story. The KOSPI cratered -8.95% — an extraordinary single-session move. The Nikkei fell -1.92%. The ASX 200 was essentially flat at +0.03%. The VIX spiked +14.17% to 17.16 — a sharp jump that confirms the risk-off tone. VXN rose +9.68% to 27.30. US Treasury yields climbed across the curve: the 5-year yield rose +1.28% to 4.36, the 10-year gained +0.88% to 4.61, and the 30-year added +0.53% to 5.10. Rising yields alongside falling equities — pressure on both fronts.

Global Daily Bar Chart

The KOSPI at -8.95% was by far the worst performer globally on the day. That scale of single-session decline signals either a major macro shock or forced deleveraging specific to Korean markets — a yellow flag worth monitoring closely. At the other end, India’s Nifty IT at +3.59% led the charge, signalling a divergent theme: technology outperformance in Indian markets even as US tech sold off hard. Two very different stories, same session.

Rates & Treasuries

Bond ETF Daily Returns

Not a single bond ETF finished positive — all 15 closed in the red. Government bonds led the selling. GOVZ (25+ year STRIPS) was the worst performer at -0.87%, followed by TLT (-0.59%) and TLH (-0.53%). IEF fell -0.36%, IEI -0.27%. At the shorter end, AGZ (Agency) held up best at just -0.08% and SHY dropped -0.11%. High yield credit saw modest declines — HYG -0.24%, SHYG -0.14% — outperforming government paper on a relative basis. Duration was punished hardest.

Returns Chart

The bar chart tells a clear story: government bonds underperformed high yield on the day. That is counterintuitive in a risk-off session. Normally high yield credit spreads widen as investors flee to government paper. Today the reverse held — high yield held up better than long-duration Treasuries. Rising yields drove price losses in government bonds whilst credit spreads remained contained. Risk appetite in credit markets did not fully capitulate, even as equities and volatility painted a different picture.

Yield Curve

The regime is a Bear Flattener. The 2s10s spread sits at +0.35% and the 5s30s at +0.76% — a mildly upward-sloping curve. The 10-year yield stands at 4.56% (up +7bp over one week) and the 30-year at 5.06% (up +8bp). The belly of the curve — 5-year at 4.30% — rose +7bp over the week. Short-end yields also ticked higher: the 1-year added +10bp to 4.06%. Yields are rising uniformly across tenors. The line in the sand: if the 10-year pushes decisively above 4.75%, pressure on equity valuations intensifies.

ETF Sectors

SPDR Sectors

Energy (XLE) led the charge, gaining +3.01% on the day. That was the sole meaningful winner. The defensive rotation was clear: Utilities (XLU +0.68%), Financials (XLF +0.65%), Real Estate (XLRE +0.56%), Consumer Staples (XLP +0.56%), and Healthcare (XLV +0.35%) all closed positive. Growth sectors bore the brunt — Technology (XLK -2.42%) was the worst performer, followed by Consumer Discretionary (XLY -1.02%) and Industrials (XLI -0.85%). The rotation from growth to defensive was decisive and synchronised.

Tech Thematic

Semiconductors were hammered. SOXX fell -4.77% and SMH dropped -4.16% — a brutal session for the chip complex. Cybersecurity held up remarkably: HACK gained +0.28% and CIBR was essentially flat at -0.04%. Cloud computing bucked the trend — WCLD rose +2.16%, an interesting outperformer. Software (IGV) edged up +0.31%. The divergence within tech is notable: hardware and semis sold off hard whilst software and cloud found buyers. A rotation within the theme, not a blanket exit.

ARK Innovation

The ARK suite fell across the board. ARKQ (Autonomous Technology) was the worst performer at -2.65%, followed by ARKK (-2.50%) and ARKX (-2.34%). ARKG dropped -1.77% and ARKW -1.64%. ARKF (Fintech) held up best at -0.74%. No ARK fund closed positive. The losses are consistent with the broader growth selloff — high-beta, long-duration innovation names take the hardest hits when rates rise and risk appetite retreats.

Healthcare & Defence

Both sectors fell. On the biotech side, XBI dropped -2.32% and IBB -1.31% — a notable underperformance relative to the broader healthcare sector (XLV +0.35%). Defence was similarly hit: XAR slid -2.68% and ITA -1.68%. The defence sell-off is a yellow flag given the strong YTD performance of both ETFs — profit-taking after strong runs, or something more structural? We will watch closely. The gap between broader healthcare holding up and biotech selling off suggests stock-specific rather than sector-wide pressure.

Consumer, Finance & Specialty

XOP (Oil & Gas E&P) surged +4.17% — the strongest single ETF in this group by a wide margin, consistent with energy’s day of leadership. KRE (Regional Banking) eked out +0.13% and IYG (Financial Services) added +0.41%. On the losing side, XHB (Homebuilders) fell -1.42% — rising yields are a direct headwind for that sector. XRT (Retail) -0.69% and FINX (Fintech) -0.61% also declined. IYT (Transportation) was essentially flat at -0.09%. Energy dominated; rate-sensitive names struggled.

Stock Screener

S&P 500 Top 20

The S&P 500 fell -0.79% on the day, but our screener surfaced a strong cohort of outperformers. FactSet (FDS) led at +6.47%, followed by Gartner (IT) at +6.06% and Intuit (INTU) at +5.38%. Energy names dominated the list — Valero (VLO +5.38%), Phillips 66 (PSX +5.27%), Marathon Petroleum (MPC +4.63%), Diamondback Energy (FANG +4.48%), and ExxonMobil (XOM +4.05%) all featured prominently. Technology names including Salesforce (CRM +4.84%) and Workday (WDAY +4.26%) also appeared, a reminder that stock-picking within tech still rewarded on this session.

Russell 2000 Top 20

The Russell 2000 fell -0.83% as a benchmark, but our top-ranked names delivered outsized gains. Actuate Therapeutics (ACTU) surged +23.97%, leading the pack. Kosmos Energy (KOS +16.19%) and Vivid Seats (SEAT +14.90%) followed. Healthcare names — ARAY (+12.85%), SI (+11.01%), CNMD (+10.21%), PSNL (+6.89%) — dominated the top of the list. Energy was the second-strongest theme, with SOC (+13.01%), NOG (+9.94%), PBF (+8.01%), PARR (+7.81%), and SM (+7.48%) all featuring. A clear two-sector story: healthcare and energy carried the small-cap outperformers.

52-Week New Highs

S&P 500

Eighteen S&P 500 names hit 52-week highs on Monday. Industrials led with five names, followed by Financial Services and Energy with four each. Utilities and Technology each contributed one. Notable names reaching new highs include Apple (AAPL), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Valero (VLO), Grainger (GWW), Targa Resources (TRGP), Aflac (AFL), CSX, and Expeditors International (EXPD). Energy names hitting new highs on a strong day for the sector is a confirmatory signal. Eighteen new highs whilst the index fell -0.79% reflects pockets of genuine leadership beneath the surface.

Russell 2000

Fifty-three Russell 2000 names posted 52-week highs — a healthy breadth reading for the small-cap index even as the benchmark pulled back. Healthcare and Financials tied for the lead with eleven names each, followed by Consumer Discretionary (seven), Energy (six), and Industrials (four). Notable names include Personalis (PSNL), Fate Therapeutics (FATE), Dave Inc (DAVE), TXG, AOUT, CLMT, FTK, RGCO, PNTG, and Bassett Furniture (BSET). The breadth of new highs across small caps — particularly in healthcare and financials — is an encouraging signal that the Russell’s underlying leadership remains intact.

FTSE 250

Seven FTSE 250 names reached 52-week highs. Sectors represented include Financial Services (two names) alongside Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, and Food Producers. Names hitting new highs include Watches of Switzerland (WOSG.L), Tharisa (THRL.L), Hill & Smith (HILS.L), TP ICAP (TCAP.L), Supermarket Income REIT (SUPR.L), Apax Global Alpha (APN.L), and Funding Circle Holdings (FCH.L). A modest but steady list — Europe’s relative strength today was reflected in continued breadth at the individual stock level.

FTSE 100

Just one FTSE 100 name posted a 52-week high on the day: SDLF.L in the Life Insurance sector. A single new high from the blue-chip index is a thin reading. Whilst Europe held up better than the US on an index basis today, the FTSE 100’s new high count suggests the breadth within the index remains constrained. One to watch — we want to see this number expand before drawing bullish conclusions on UK large caps.

Markets

SPX — S&P 500

NDX — Nasdaq 100

GC1! — Gold Futures

DX1! — US Dollar

EURUSD — EUR/USD

BTCUSD — Bitcoin

Disclaimer

This publication is produced for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this article, including the written commentary, charts, images, data, and any internal or external links are for educational and information purposes only.

Asset Performance

Cross-Asset Performance — Week-to-Date, July 10, 2026

Bitcoin’s dominance continues unchallenged, surging +3.90% to claim the week’s top spot by a wide margin — cementing its status as the highest-conviction trade in the current macro environment. Large-cap US equities followed with the NASDAQ 100 gaining +1.69% and S&P 500 adding +1.23%, suggesting tech is finding its footing after June’s semiconductor-driven rout.

The week’s notable reversal: silver gave back -1.94% after leading the prior week, while gold slipped -0.30% — a pause in the precious metals bid. Treasuries continued their slide at -0.46%, and small-caps remained the persistent laggard with Russell 2000 down -0.61%. Bitcoin and large-cap tech are clearly where conviction lives right now.

Global Equity Indices Performance

Global Equity Indices — Week-to-Date Performance, July 10, 2026

Last week’s global equity picture was one of stark divergence — a handful of winners against a sea of red. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was the standout performer, surging +3.53% and extending its recent resurgence as Chinese risk appetite recovers. US large-cap tech indices held firm, with NASDAQ 100 gaining +1.69% and S&P 500 adding +1.23% — the only other meaningful positive contributors globally.

The losses were broad and geographically concentrated in Europe and Asia. Germany’s DAX tumbled -2.76%, Euro Stoxx 50 fell -2.23%, and CAC 40 dropped -1.99% — a sharp reversal after Europe’s strong showing the prior week. The FTSE 100 and Nikkei 225 both shed -1.70%. India slipped marginally, with SENSEX and Nifty 50 both off around -0.25%.

The week’s most alarming print remains South Korea’s KOSPI, cratering -7.57% — an extraordinary single-week collapse that continues to make it the most distressed index in the global equity complex by a significant margin.

Sectors and ETFs Performance

SPDR Sectors — Week-to-Date Performance, July 10, 2026

Last week delivered a clear and decisive rotation back into growth and energy, with defensive and cyclical sectors taking the hit. Energy (XLE) surged to the top at +3.49% — its quiet persistence now demanding serious attention — while Technology (XLK) rebounded strongly at +2.87%, suggesting the June selloff may have found its floor. Communication Services (XLC) added +1.86%, rounding out a powerful growth trio.

The week’s casualties were concentrated in the defensive and materials space. Materials (XLB) dropped -2.15%, Health Care (XLV) fell -1.77%, and Industrials (XLI) slid -1.08%. Consumer Staples (XLP) declined -1.02% — further evidence the defensive trade is unwinding as risk appetite returns. The rotation narrative is sharpening with every passing week.

U.S. Treasury Yield Curve

We are in a Bear Flattener regime. The curve is mildly upward sloping — 2s10s at +0.38%, 5s30s at +0.78%. Key tenors: the 2-year sits at 4.16% (+2bp over the week), the 10-year at 4.54% (+5bp), and the 30-year at 5.05% (+7bp). The long end is rising faster than the belly — the 20-year jumped +7bp over the week to 5.06%. Short-end yields are relatively anchored, with the 1-month T-bill at 3.72%. The curve is steepening slightly at the very long end whilst remaining compressed in the middle. Watch the 5s30s for the next directional signal.

Markets

Market Timing

Our timing model is giving a time zone of 20th July to 23rd July for a possible turn in the market. We have to give +/- 2 trading days on either side.

SPX - S&P 500 Cash

The market closed higher last week taking out the highs of the previous week. Despite the geopolitical issues, the market has been grinding higher and after reaching our targets it is marching towards our revised higher targets.

However, the risk is rising. In our last weekend’s newsletter we had discussed the seasonality in the marketplace and August till October are the months to watch for as we are in the mid-term election cycle in the US.

Nasdaq 100 - Cash

Nasdaq staged a comeback last week, however, it appears to be weaker than the broader S&P 500.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Futures

Dow closed slightly negative for the week.

Small Caps - Russell 2000

Russell 2000 also closed negative for the week. Clear divergence seen between the SPX and NDX and small caps and the Dow Jones Industrials.

US Dollar

Dollar remains pretty strong although a small range week last week.

Testing support last Friday and looks poised to be strong next week.

COMEX Gold

Gold is trying to form a base around these levels, however, breaking below $3900/oz is the level to watch and below that very good support around the $3500/$3600 per oz.

As long as the lows of the 30th June are held, price has the chance to rally higher to $4650/oz.

Bitcoin - BTCUSD

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement held for the second week. This is a good sign of a possible bottom approaching in this market.

US Treasury

Yields remained elevated last week.

Here is the chart for the 10 Year Treasury Note.

Disclaimer

This article, charts, images, software used, links internal or external are all for educational purposes only and do not offer any financial advice. Please consult your financial advisor for any advice.

Summary

• Bitcoin (IBIT) → +1.17% on the day · led the entire cross-asset leaderboard · risk-on signal from alternatives

• S&P 500 (SPX) → +0.42% · closed at 7,575.39 · large-cap equities held the charge whilst small-caps faltered

• NASDAQ 100 (NDX) → +0.33% · positive but underperformed the S&P 500 on the day · tech mixed at the sector level

• Russell 2000 (RUT) → -0.49% · the one major US equity index in the red · risk appetite narrowing at the edges

• Gold (GLD) → -0.31% · Silver (SLV) → -0.35% · commodities lagged across the board

• US Treasuries (GOVT) → -0.07% · bond ETFs broadly lower · Bear Flattener regime intact

• VIX → -5.11% to 15.03 · fear index continues to compress · supportive backdrop for equities

• Materials (XLB) → best SPDR sector at +1.25% · Healthcare (XLV) → worst at -0.82%

• ARKG → worst ARK fund at -3.91% · ARKF → only ARK fund in the green at +0.43%

Asset Classes

Cross-Asset Daily Returns

Here is the breakdown. Bitcoin led the entire cross-asset universe today at +1.17%, confirming a risk-on tone from the alternatives bucket. The S&P 500 followed at +0.42%, with the NASDAQ 100 just behind at +0.33%. Cash (SGOV) was essentially flat at +0.02%. Then the picture turns. Treasuries slipped -0.07%, Gold gave back -0.31%, Silver -0.35%, and the Russell 2000 brought up the rear at -0.49%. The split is clear: large-cap equities and crypto risk-on, commodities and small-caps risk-off. A bifurcated session.

Performance by Asset Class

Alternatives led decisively — Bitcoin +1.17%. Equities delivered a mixed result: S&P 500 and NASDAQ positive, Russell 2000 negative. Cash was essentially unchanged. Fixed Income edged lower, GOVT off -0.07%. Commodities were the clear laggard — both Gold and Silver closed in the red, offering no safe-haven bid today.

World Indices

Performance by Region

North America was mostly positive. The S&P 500 gained +0.42%, NASDAQ 100 +0.33%, the TSX +0.30%, the Dow +0.29%, and the NYSE Composite +0.20%. The Russell 2000 was the outlier at -0.49%. Europe was mixed and modest — the FTSE 250 led at +0.56%, the FTSE 100 +0.24%, the CAC 40 +0.15%, whilst the Euro Stoxx 50 dipped -0.23% and the DAX slipped -0.20%. China diverged sharply: the Hang Seng gained +0.60% whilst the Shanghai Composite fell -1.00%. India was a standout — Nifty IT surged +1.96%, Nifty Bank +1.39%, and the Nifty 50 advanced +1.02%.

Asia Pacific + Volatility + Yields

The KOSPI led Asia Pacific at +2.52%, the Nikkei added +1.20%, and the ASX 200 gained +0.50%. What jumps out immediately is the VIX. It dropped -5.11% to 15.03 — a meaningful compression. The VXN fell an even sharper -7.51% to 24.89. Both volatility indices are moving in the right direction for bulls. On the yield side, the 5-year Treasury yield rose +0.91% to 4.31, and the 10-year climbed +0.66% to 4.57. Yields moving higher whilst equities rise — a nuanced signal worth watching.

Global Daily Bar Chart

The single best performing index on the day was the KOSPI at +2.52%, continuing its extraordinary YTD run of +77.40% — a signal of sustained momentum in Korean equities. The worst was the Shanghai Composite at -1.00%, reinforcing the ongoing divergence between mainland China and Hong Kong. That China split — Hang Seng up, Shanghai down — remains a yellow flag for anyone reading the region as a single trade.

Rates & Treasuries

Bond ETF Daily Returns

Only two of fifteen bond ETFs finished positive today. GOVZ (25+ Year STRIPS) eked out +0.09% — an unusual outlier given the Bear Flattener backdrop — and EMHY managed a negligible +0.01%. Every other ETF was in the red. Government bonds across intermediate and long durations all fell: IEF -0.09%, IEI -0.06%, TLT -0.02%. High yield names — HYG -0.05%, SHYG -0.07%, USHY -0.08% — declined in line. AGZ was the worst performer at -0.18%.

Returns Chart — Risk Appetite Signal

The picture from the bar chart is unambiguous: government bonds and high yield both fell today. There is no flight-to-quality bid. Thirteen of fifteen ETFs closed negative, with an average return of -0.06% and a median of -0.07%. This is not a crisis signal — the moves are small — but the direction confirms that the bond market is not providing a risk-off counterweight to equities. In a Bear Flattener regime, this is consistent behaviour.

Yield Curve

We are in a Bear Flattener regime. The curve is mildly upward sloping — 2s10s at +0.38%, 5s30s at +0.78%. Key tenors: the 2-year sits at 4.16% (+2bp over the week), the 10-year at 4.54% (+5bp), and the 30-year at 5.05% (+7bp). The long end is rising faster than the belly — the 20-year jumped +7bp over the week to 5.06%. Short-end yields are relatively anchored, with the 1-month T-bill at 3.72%. The curve is steepening slightly at the very long end whilst remaining compressed in the middle. Watch the 5s30s for the next directional signal.

ETF Sectors

SPDR Sectors

Materials (XLB) led all SPDR sectors today at +1.25% — a cyclical signal worth noting. Consumer Staples (XLP) was close behind at +1.11%, and Communication Services (XLC) added +1.02%. Energy (XLE) gained +0.47%, Industrials (XLI) +0.45%, and Real Estate (XLRE) +0.50%. The laggard was Healthcare (XLV) at -0.82%. That is the only SPDR sector in the red. Technology (XLK) was a subdued +0.23%. The rotation read: defensive staples and cyclical materials led together — not a clean growth day, but not a defensive retreat either.

Tech Thematic

Semiconductors were mixed. SMH gained +0.54% whilst SOXX slipped -0.06% — a slight divergence between the two bellwether semi ETFs. Cybersecurity had a rough session: HACK fell -2.59% and CIBR dropped -2.52%. Cloud (WCLD) gave back -1.91% and software (IGV) lost -1.57%. In short, the tech thematic space — outside of the chips — ran into resistance today. The mega-cap tech lift in the S&P 500 was not being replicated in the thematic ETF layer.

ARK Innovation

ARKF was the sole ARK fund in positive territory today, gaining +0.43% — fintech the lone bright spot. Everything else fell. ARKG (Genomic Revolution) was the worst performer by a wide margin at -3.91%, followed by ARKK at -1.58% and WCLD-adjacent ARKW at -0.75%. ARKX slipped -0.82% and ARKQ -0.57%. The ARK complex as a whole is having a difficult week — most funds are down over both the daily and WTD timeframes. A yellow flag for speculative growth positioning.

Healthcare & Defence

Both buckets sold off today. Biotech led the declines: XBI dropped -3.20% and IBB fell -2.68% — a sharp pullback after recent strength. Defence was also under pressure: XAR lost -0.89% and ITA -0.23%. The biotech drawdown is notable given XBI’s strong YTD gain of +30.43% — this looks like profit-taking rather than a structural break. Defence is the softer laggard this week, with XAR down -5.60% WTD. Worth monitoring into next week.

Consumer, Finance & Specialty

Retail (XRT) was the standout at +1.33%, with homebuilders (XHB) adding +0.93%. Regional banks (KRE) gained +0.50% and financial services (IYG) +0.25%. FinTech (FINX) was essentially flat at -0.02%. On the negative side, XOP (oil and gas E&P) slipped -0.56% — notable given energy equities (XLE) were positive on the day, suggesting a divergence between integrated energy and pure-play exploration names. Transportation (IYT) was flat at -0.07%.

Stock Screener

S&P 500 Top 20

The S&P 500 gained +0.42% today. Our screener’s top-ranked names today are heavily concentrated in Technology, and the refined score table makes the picture very clear. Seven names score 92/100 at the top of the list: NTAP, CSCO, HPE, NVDA, AMD, DELL, and ANET. These are all technology names with fully aligned trend structures. MRNA and KDP follow at 87/100 — healthcare and consumer defensive respectively. On the daily raw list, META surged +5.97%, leading the session by a wide margin. Real estate names WY (+4.22%) and SBAC (+4.14%) also featured, alongside NVDA at +4.03%.

Russell 2000 Top 20

The Russell 2000 fell -0.49% today. Our screener’s top-ranked names in the small-cap universe are led by ten names scoring 92/100: TBI (TrueBlue), PENG, ICHR, INSW, NGNE, WDFC, FTK, TNGX, BNED, and EWTX. Health Care dominates — both in the top-ranked list and the daily raw movers, where AARD surged +52.00%. Biotech and therapeutics names are driving the small-cap screener output. Information Technology names like PENG, ICHR, and WYFI also feature prominently. The watchlist skews heavily towards healthcare and IT — two sectors punching well above their weight in the small-cap space this week.

52-Week New Highs

S&P 500

Twelve S&P 500 names hit 52-week highs today. Industrials led with four names, Energy contributed three, and Technology two. Notable names include FTNT (Fortinet), PSX (Phillips 66), VLO (Valero Energy), MPC (Marathon Petroleum), UNP (Union Pacific), CSX, and NSC. The rail and energy cluster is telling — these are cyclical, economically sensitive names making new highs, which is a constructive breadth signal. FTNT at a 52-week high aligns with its strong position in our screener’s top-ranked names.

Russell 2000

Forty-six Russell 2000 names printed 52-week highs today — a healthy breadth reading for small-caps even as the index itself closed down -0.49%. Health Care and Consumer Discretionary tied at ten names each, followed by Information Technology (seven), Financials (six), and Energy (five). Notable names include WDFC, TRAX, BLZE, URGN, DK, and SRRK. The breadth diverging from the index return tells us individual leadership is alive and well in the small-cap universe even on a down day for the benchmark.

FTSE 250

Ten FTSE 250 names reached 52-week highs today. The list spans Real Estate (DLN.L — Derwent London), Travel and Leisure (EZJ.L — easyJet), Food Producers (SUPR.L — Supermarket Income REIT), and Financial Services (BGFD.L — Baillie Gifford). Additional names include CGT.L, WWH.L, RCP.L, APN.L, CMCX.L, and HILS.L. A diverse cross-section of the mid-cap UK market making new highs — constructive breadth for the FTSE 250, which is up +0.56% on the day.

FTSE 100

Just one FTSE 100 name hit a 52-week high today: SDLF.L in Life Insurance. A single data point — not a signal in isolation, but worth noting that the FTSE 100 is flat MTD (+0.00%) and up only +5.70% YTD. Breadth at the large-cap UK level remains thin. The action is clearly in the mid-cap space, where the FTSE 250 is generating ten times the new-high count. We follow the FTSE 250 for UK leadership signals — today that remains the right lens.

Markets

SPX — S&P 500

NDX — Nasdaq 100

GC1! — Gold Futures

DX1! — US Dollar

EURUSD — EUR/USD

BTCUSD — Bitcoin

Disclaimer

This publication is produced for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing in this article, including the written commentary, charts, images, data, and any internal or external links, constitutes financial advice. Only for educational purposes.

Summary

• Silver (SLV) → +2.48% on the day — led all assets, strongest single-session move in weeks

• Bitcoin (IBIT) → +1.65% — second-best performer, risk-on appetite intact

• NASDAQ 100 → +1.62% — tech led US equities, S&P 500 closed +0.81% at 7,543.64

• Russell 2000 → +1.22% — small caps participated but lagged large-cap tech

• Gold (GLD) → +1.00% — synchronized bounce with silver; commodities broadly bid

• US Treasuries (GOVT) → +0.13% — mild bid; yields fell across tenors in a rare risk-on/bonds-up session

• VIX → -6.27% to 15.84 — fear gauge dropped sharply; sentiment firmly constructive

• Technology (XLK) → +2.18% — best SPDR sector; semiconductors (SOXX +3.50%) led the charge

• Energy (XLE) → -1.40% — worst SPDR sector; XOP off -1.56%; oil and gas the clear laggard

Asset Classes

Cross-Asset Daily Returns

Here is the breakdown. Silver topped the daily leaderboard at +2.48%, with Bitcoin right behind at +1.65%. The NASDAQ 100 printed +1.62% and the Russell 2000 added +1.22%. Gold joined the party at +1.00%. Every single asset class closed in the green. That is an unambiguous risk-on session — equities, commodities, and alternatives all moving in the same direction whilst Treasuries quietly caught a modest bid. Cash barely moved at +0.01%. When silver, Bitcoin, and growth equities all surge together, we call that a clean risk-on signal.

Performance by Asset Class

Commodities led the cross-asset field today, driven by silver and gold. Alternatives performed strongly via Bitcoin. Equities had a broad positive session across all three major US indices. Fixed income eked out a +0.13% gain — Treasuries caught a gentle tailwind as yields declined modestly. Cash was essentially flat at +0.01%. No asset class finished negative. That kind of synchronised advance across all five buckets is rare and worth noting as a bullish data point.

World Indices

Performance by Region

North America delivered across the board. NASDAQ 100 led at +1.62%, Russell 2000 at +1.22%, S&P 500 at +0.81%, TSX at +0.76%, and even the Dow caught a +0.27% lift. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 led with +1.28%, DAX +0.89%, CAC +0.90%, and FTSE 250 +0.97% — a clean green sweep. The FTSE 100 was the notable laggard at -0.16%. In China, Shanghai rallied +1.65% whilst the Hang Seng gave back -0.70%. India was mixed — Nifty Midcap 50 led at +1.36%, Nifty IT slipped -0.30%.

Asia Pacific + Sentiment + Yields

In Asia Pacific, the Nikkei 225 gained +1.38%, KOSPI added +0.62%, and the ASX 200 slipped -0.26%. The VIX collapsed -6.27% to 15.84 — that is the line in the sand for complacency territory, and it sends a clear message that traders see no near-term threat. The VXN dropped -3.41% to 26.91. US Treasury yields fell across key tenors on the day: the 10-year declined -0.66% to 4.54%, the 5-year fell -0.91% to 4.27%, and the 30-year eased -0.24% to 5.05%. Yields down and equities up — a constructive combination.

Global Daily Bar Chart

The single best performing index on the day was the Shanghai Composite at +1.65%, signalling a tentative stabilisation after a difficult MTD run. The worst was the ASX 200 at -0.26% — a yellow flag for Australia, which continues to trade sideways and fail to participate meaningfully in the global risk-on move. Elsewhere the global picture is encouraging, with both European and North American indices posting coordinated gains.

Rates & Treasuries

Bond ETF Daily Returns

Every single bond ETF finished in the green today — all 15 names positive, zero negative. IEF led government bonds at +0.21%, followed by GOVZ at +0.18%, TLH at +0.16%, and TLT at +0.15%. Intermediate-duration IEI gained +0.14% and GOVT +0.13%. On the high yield side, EMHY topped the credit stack at +0.24%, HYG added +0.11%, and USHY matched at +0.11%. Even FALN, the session’s weakest, still returned +0.07%. A clean sweep across government and credit — rare and noteworthy.

Returns Chart — Government vs High Yield

Today’s bar chart tells a simple story: everything rallied. Government bonds and high yield moved in the same direction, which typically signals a broad risk appetite signal rather than a pure flight-to-quality trade. When HYG and TLT both close positive in the same session, the credit market is not pricing in stress. High yield spread compression and Treasury demand simultaneously suggest the market is in an expansionary, risk-tolerant regime — at least for today.