July monthly option expiry coming up this week. The weekly candles since the last post are highlighted. The week following June OPEX formed a bullish gap up to all time highs. This week’s doji candle tells the whole story. It’s wondering what’s next?

The market says price is at the the top of the range since the April lows. It’s reasonable at this point to look for a retracement lower. A level to keep in mind is 6147ish. That would be a shallow retrace to find liquidity. A bullish move up without looking back puts 6700+ on the horizon.

Trading above 6000 still keeps price in the bullish portion of the range. The question being can market participants keep their seats during a deeper retracement of a market that has been ever higher? Trading down 100 points below 6147 (the most bullish scenario) fills the gap at 6050 and change—still bullish.

If participants agree to do business below 6000, then eyes on the weekly 11ema (yellow) and 32ema (green) at the top of the gap below. The 50 week sma near 5705 frames the bottom of the gap below. Isn’t confluence interesting?

Half back of the range 5560.

July’s monthly mention goes out to a true OG. A SPX premium seller. Lord of the Flies: Doc Trader McGraw . This guy is so good, he once sold a credit spread back to Fifty Cent for a dime. The link above is to his stack—some free stuff/some paid.

Let’s wrap things up with a suggestion for some screentime free time. This episode from Forward Guidance is worth it. Or tune-in the podcast for a listen.

Looking forward to writing again after a few more candles to the right. In the meantime, please comment or leave questions about the annotations on the chart.

~Best

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I’ve been tracking the ascent of SPX on the weekly chart above since the touch of the 50 week sma October 2023 moving levels up with every new high. The 11ema sweetly stacked above and only a single touch of the 32ema (August 2024) the entirety of last year. This week it occurred to me that I could consider the April 2025 low as the start of a new leg. This is the first “reset” of the levels in well over a year.

Looking at more recent price action surrounding the weekly gap and moving average crossovers it looked like June would be the break above the three week balance that formed in May. Then last week happened…that last candle ain’t pretty.

Based on what price has printed the market is in a bullish posture in the upper portion of the range since the April low. Above 5885 with fresh highs above. Pulling back to fill the weekly gap near 5700 might freak out some participants. In the short term my lean is bullish.

If you might enjoy some interesting commentary looking ahead into the summer months, I have much respect for this author:

She has a stack for paid subs at Stochastic Volatility Trader or follow on X.

In the meantime, please comment or leave questions about the annotations on the chart.

~Best

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