<![CDATA[China by Numbers]]>https://markkruger.substack.comhttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TXJQ!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F05f0b0fd-da81-4be5-aeb7-f91d9e7f9565_728x728.pngChina by Numbershttps://markkruger.substack.comSubstackTue, 01 Sep 2026 06:39:31 GMT<![CDATA[Global Imbalances: The Case Against Panicking]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/global-imbalances-the-case-againsthttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/global-imbalances-the-case-againstWed, 19 Aug 2026 14:12:09 GMTGlobal imbalances are back in the news. But China isn't underconsuming because of income suppression, it's investing its way to rapid consumption growth. And excessive healthcare costs, not fiscal profligacy, are the heart of America's saving problem.

Global Imbalances: The Case Against Panicking

]]><![CDATA[Q2 GDP: Growth Slows But No Need to Panic]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/q2-gdp-growth-slows-but-no-need-tohttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/q2-gdp-growth-slows-but-no-need-toWed, 22 Jul 2026 02:04:23 GMTAt 4.3 percent year-over-year, Q2 GDP growth missed forecasts. It was the slowest since 2022, but the deceleration was not uniform. Autos and real estate weighed heavily on the economy. To some extent, the slowdown reflects Beijing’s prioritizing stability over growth.

Q2 GDP: Growth Slows But No Need to Panic

]]><![CDATA[Is the Renminbi Really Undervalued? ]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/is-the-renminbi-really-undervaluedhttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/is-the-renminbi-really-undervaluedWed, 08 Jul 2026 03:34:32 GMTECB President Lagarde says the RMB is 15-16% undervalued. Our dive into IMF data shows China’s currency sits almost exactly where you’d expect given its income, savings and government spending. And it’s getting stronger.

Is the Renminbi Really Undervalued?

Is the Renminbi Really Undervalued?

]]><![CDATA[China’s Economy: Ambition and Challenges]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/chinas-economy-ambition-and-challengeshttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/chinas-economy-ambition-and-challengesFri, 26 Jun 2026 02:31:42 GMTThe dislocation caused by the Trump administration has led world leaders to recalibrate their policies toward China. While China has set the ambitious goal of doubling its per capita income from 2020 levels by 2035, it faces three significant challenges: rising debt, a shrinking labour force and growing protectionist pressures. Thus, understanding the extent to which China can mitigate these challenges by implementing policies that enhance macroeconomic resilience is increasingly of global significance.

China’s Economy: Ambition and Challenges

]]><![CDATA[What Explains the Turnaround in Chinese Industrial Profits?]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/what-explains-the-turnaround-in-chinesehttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/what-explains-the-turnaround-in-chineseMon, 22 Jun 2026 04:11:40 GMTThe rebound in Chinese industrial profits was driven by integrated circuits, surging chemical & metal prices and temporary refining gains. Why the turnaround may not last — and why China is better positioned than most to handle input shocks.

What Explains the Turnaround in Chinese Industrial Profits?

What Explains the Turnaround in Chinese Industrial Profits?
]]><![CDATA[Why Are Chinese EVs Such A Great Deal?]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/why-are-chinese-evs-such-a-greathttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/why-are-chinese-evs-such-a-greatFri, 29 May 2026 12:37:10 GMTChina’s EV success story is one of government foresight channelling market dynamism. Through massive scale, vertical integration and battery breakthroughs, China’s EV industry has achieved remarkable cost advantages.

Why Are Chinese EVs Such A Great Deal?

Why Are Chinese EVs Such A Great Deal?
]]><![CDATA[China’s Economy Exceeded Expectations in Q1]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/chinas-economy-exceeded-expectationshttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/chinas-economy-exceeded-expectationsMon, 27 Apr 2026 03:58:50 GMTChina’s economy made a surprisingly good start in the first quarter. The contribution of investment more than doubled while that of net exports halved. Consumption’s contribution dipped somewhat.

China’s Economy Exceeded Expectations in Q1

China’s Economy Exceeded Expectations in Q1
]]><![CDATA[What Do March’s Two Sessions Tell Us About China’s Economic Policies?]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/what-do-marchs-two-sessions-tellhttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/what-do-marchs-two-sessions-tellMon, 16 Mar 2026 03:18:36 GMTWhile recent momentum suggests 4.5-5.0% growth this year will be challenging, the worst may be behind us in the property market, China’s relationship with the US is improving and macroeconomic policies will be stimulative.

What Do March’s Two Sessions Tell Us About China’s Economic Policies?

What Do March’s Two Sessions Tell Us About China’s Economic Policies?
]]><![CDATA[What Can We Learn from China’s Provincial-Level GDP Targets?]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/what-can-we-learn-from-chinas-provincialhttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/what-can-we-learn-from-chinas-provincialMon, 02 Mar 2026 03:22:22 GMTThe provincial targets suggest that the national GDP target will be set in the 4.5 to 4.75 percent range. The shrinking gap between the provincial and national targets means that the quality of growth could improve.

What Can We Learn from China’s Provincial-Level GDP Targets?

What Can We Learn from China’s Provincial-Level GDP Targets?
]]><![CDATA[The Year Ahead for the Chinese Economy]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/the-year-ahead-for-the-chinese-economyhttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/the-year-ahead-for-the-chinese-economyWed, 28 Jan 2026 08:24:54 GMTThe Chinese economy reached its 5% target growth in 2025 — no mean feat, given the jump in US tariffs and the ongoing property market correction. I forecast growth will slow to 4.6% this year, but that more favourable geopolitics will reduce the downside risks.

The Year Ahead for the Chinese Economy

The Year Ahead for the Chinese Economy
]]><![CDATA[Can We Really Believe China’s GDP Numbers?]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/can-we-really-believe-chinas-gdphttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/can-we-really-believe-chinas-gdpTue, 09 Dec 2025 00:22:50 GMTI have always been skeptical of the feasibility of the NBS’s systematically overstating GDP growth.

Policymakers need to know how the economy is actuallyperforming. Presumably, they would receive the “true” numbers, while the NBS would release the “pumped-up” numbers to the general public in order to instil confidence.

But how would this work in practice?

Would PBOC Governor Pan get the true data? How about the six deputy governors? How about the department directors?

Similarly, how could the existence of a second set of books remain a secret within the NBS all these years?

Can We Really Believe China’s GDP Numbers?

]]><![CDATA[What’s Driving China’s 15th Five-Year Plan?]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/whats-driving-chinas-15th-five-yearhttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/whats-driving-chinas-15th-five-yearTue, 18 Nov 2025 02:38:47 GMTFor higher consumption to be growth enhancing and not simply a rebalancing of national spending, investment and government expenditure will have to become more productive. That is exactly what the new quality productive forces are all about.

What’s Driving China’s 15th Five-Year Plan?

What’s Driving China’s 15th Five-Year Plan?
]]><![CDATA[Is the Chinese Economy Running Out of Gas?]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/is-the-chinese-economy-running-outhttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/is-the-chinese-economy-running-outTue, 28 Oct 2025 02:48:47 GMTIt looks like GDP growth for the year will reach the government’s 5 percent target this year. However, looking ahead to 2026, it is not clear that such rapid growth can be sustained.

Is the Chinese Economy Running Out of Gas?

Is the Chinese Economy Running Out of Gas?
]]><![CDATA[Are US-China Relations a House of Cards?]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/are-us-china-relations-a-house-ofhttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/are-us-china-relations-a-house-ofThu, 16 Oct 2025 22:54:29 GMTPresident Trump is fond of using a card-playing to describe his approach to international relations. In keeping with this metaphor, US-China relations are portrayed as a game of Texas Hold’em, with particular focus on the strength of the two countries’ hands in the areas tensions are felt most acutely: security, supply chain vulnerabilities and international trade.

The two countries are fairly evenly matched. They will continue to define the contours of their relationship, knowing that neither will dominate the other in the foreseeable future. Their ability to use soft power to create friendly coalitions with other countries will also shape the evolution of their relationship.

Are US-China Relations a House of Cards?

]]><![CDATA[What Kind of Trade Deal Can the US and China Cut?]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/what-kind-of-trade-deal-can-the-ushttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/what-kind-of-trade-deal-can-the-usMon, 15 Sep 2025 02:54:26 GMTA deal could look like this: both countries roll back their tariffs; China supports the US economy through goods purchases and/or a modest nominal appreciation; and the US relaxes its controls on the export of advanced chips and chip-making equipment.

What Kind of Trade Deal Can the US and China Cut?

What Kind of Trade Deal Can the US and China Cut?
]]><![CDATA[Is the US Dollar: As Good As Gold?]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/is-the-us-dollar-as-good-as-goldhttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/is-the-us-dollar-as-good-as-goldWed, 03 Sep 2025 13:49:22 GMTThe strong investment demand for gold and the run up in the gold price appear to be related to concerns about US macroeconomic policy. China could consider investing in the US stock market to reap both financial and geopolitical gains.

Is the US Dollar: As Good As Gold?

Is the US Dollar: As Good As Gold?
]]><![CDATA[Despite Tariffs, China’s GDP Exceeds Expectations]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/despite-tariffs-chinas-gdp-exceedshttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/despite-tariffs-chinas-gdp-exceedsMon, 21 Jul 2025 10:09:37 GMTGrowth in the first half was stronger than expected. The Chinese economy is benefiting from a positive swing in its terms of trade, low domestic prices, fiscal support and the bottoming out of the property market.

Despite Tariffs, China’s GDP Exceeds Expectations

Despite Tariffs, China’s GDP Exceeds Expectations
]]><![CDATA[China’s Emissions Peak: What Are the Implications?]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/chinas-emissions-peak-what-are-thehttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/chinas-emissions-peak-what-are-theWed, 09 Jul 2025 11:30:10 GMTEven as some countries turn away from acting on climate change, Chinese emissions’ early peak will extend the global carbon budget.

China’s Emissions Peak: What Are the Implications?

China’s Emissions Peak: What Are the Implications?
]]><![CDATA[Has China’s Property Market Bottomed Out?]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/has-chinas-property-market-bottomedhttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/has-chinas-property-market-bottomedTue, 20 May 2025 11:46:12 GMTWe’ve seen false starts before but the pick-up in sales seems persistent, while strong land sales bode well for future construction. Though high inventories remain a risk, the property market should benefit from buoyant macroeconomic conditions.

Has China’s Property Market Bottomed Out?

Has China’s Property Market Bottomed Out?
]]><![CDATA[Podcast: China's Macro Outlook]]>https://markkruger.substack.com/p/podcast-chinas-macro-outlookhttps://markkruger.substack.com/p/podcast-chinas-macro-outlookThu, 08 May 2025 05:09:57 GMTTodd Embley recently interviewed me for The Negotiation podcast. I had never done a podcast before, and I was nervous. Since my analysis is data-heavy, I rely on graphs to get my points across, but visuals were not an option here.

Nevertheless, with Todd’s guidance, I shared my insights on the Chinese economy's resistance, the roles of fiscal and monetary policy, consumer confidence trends, and the ongoing adjustment in the property sector. I also discussed how Canada should navigate its economic relationship with China during a time of rising protectionism.

One minor correction, in listing the members of the CPTPP, I mistakenly included China. I was making the broader point that Canada should encourage countries, including China, to join the trade agreement.

I hope you enjoy the show!

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