Since our inaugural publication of the Caribbean Energy Price Index in January, so much has happened! Driven mainly by the Israeli-US attack on Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices (WTI) almost doubled from roughly USD67.02 per barrel on February 27, 2026 to peak around USD112–USD113 in March and April, before easing to around USD80 per barrel by mid-August.

| If we are honest, we got lucky this time.

The IMF reported “Energy efficiency and fuel diversification help cushion the oil shock…the damage will depend largely on how long the disruption lasts.”

How long the disruption lasts, and how long it takes us to better insulate ourselves from these inevitable shocks, I would add.

The Caribbean’s vulnerability to external shocks stems mainly from our acute openness (dependence on international trade) in general, made worse by the nature of that dependence - on imported food and fuel, most importantly. All the stuff our very existence depends on.

Establishing and maintaining food and fuel security have been strategic goals across Caribbean nations individually and collectively for half a century. At least. Yet here we are, with very little to show for it.

This most recent petro-political crisis, like all of those before it, raises so many longstanding and yet unaddressed issues which continue to hold us back and worsen our quality of life here in the Caribbean. So like victims, we curse the war, and again we lament the disruption, the volatility, the inflation, the vulnerability. We abuse and overuse these terms again. And again. And again.

| When will this end?

While some countries pass legislation mandating that rooftops and carparks are covered by solar photovoltaic, here we are. Most countries in the Caribbean are majority powered by imported fossil fuels, and very few of us have met the renewable energy (RE) targets we set for ourselves.

It is worthy of note that while Suriname and Guyana are recognized as carbon-neutral or even carbon-negative, Guyana still imports all of its refined fuel needs. Paradoxically, this has contributed to Guyana’s dangerously low foreign exchange reserves, alongside booming crude oil exports and plans underway to install more hydropower.

As discussed in the June 2026 edition of my monthly Caribbean Economic Report :

• we waste 2/3 of the energy we produce globally!

• every $1.00 invested in energy efficiency returns $3 to $5 - where else can you get a 300-500% return on investment?!

• most regional building codes haven’t been updated to reflect the energy efficiency benchmarks established by CARICOM since 2019

• homes retrofitted for energy efficiency consume up to 60% less electricity.

The RE transition is even more urgent now given the July 2025 International Court of Justice ruling on the Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change.

Chart: Renewable energy in share of electricity production, 2024 (percentage of total electricity production).

Source: IRENA (2026), Marla Dukharan.

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| But, there is a BUT.

Proper planning and alignment of ALL major stakeholders is absolutely crucial before we go running off and slapping solar on everything that doesn’t move. That kind of approach is likely to result in objectives not being met, potentially destabilizing the grid, or worse yet, even more solar electricity capacity going unused as currently seen in Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago for example.

| How to avoid these undesirable outcomes?

The major stakeholders - the utilities, Governments, Regulators, academia, and consumers - must all be aligned on :

1. the outcomes we are trying to achieve - lower prices, better reliability, lower exposure to petro-political shocks, less foreign exchange lost on imported fuel, and

2. the optimal way forward for the best possible outcomes to be realized, based on the data.

Furthermore, beyond initial alignment, a solid RFP process and active collaboration throughout the project and across all players, even among competitors, will ensure that the desired outcomes are achieved in the specified timeframe.

| Simple, but not easy. Challenging, but not impossible. Uruguay did it.

Uruguay went from “crippling reliance on fossil fuel imports to powering 98% of its electricity with domestic renewables. This swift, state-led shift brought not only energy security, reduced costs, and a more predictable supply, but also supported the emergence of new jobs and industries.”

How did Uruguay achieve energy security, in a little over a decade?

1. They built a national consensus - the catalyst for which was the Global Financial Crisis of 2008.

2. They had the data - and they used it. “A team at the Universidad de la República used one hundred years of data to develop a sophisticated model that could predict the availability of wind, hydro and solar and would allow the system to be based on the cheapest of these (wind and solar) with hydro filling in when needed without any battery storage.”

3. The state did not have the money, so they conducted a competitive bidding process and engaged with private sector players under 20-year Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) to develop the energy sources.

Closer to home, earlier this year Dominica became the second Caribbean country after Guadeloupe, to generate power from domestic geothermal sources. This project had been at least 15 years in the making. According to Dominica News Online “In June 2026, renewable energy accounted for 68% of electricity supplied by DOMLEC, with Geothermal energy contributing 43%, while hydroelectricity provided another 25%.”

St. Kitts and Nevis are also exploring geothermal sources of energy and is currently receiving / reviewing bids. This is especially timely as St. Kitts and Nevis now has the 6th most expensive electricity in the region, as discussed below in the index overview.

Beyond energy security, renewable energy can also provide a source of income for countries which produce enough cheap energy for export. Bhutan, the world’s first carbon negative country, earns over one-quarter of its annual fiscal budget from hydropower exported to India. Likewise, Dominica plans to export surplus electricity to neighbouring islands in the future.

The Governments who highlight their lack of financial resources to support the RE transition, can first look at their building codes and energy efficiency standards - for themselves as the largest economic actor, but also for the nation more broadly. Recall that 2/3 of all energy produced globally is wasted based on inefficiencies like poor insulation. Governments should also look at the electricity and fuel subsidies (USD7 trillion is spent annually on fuel subsidies globally) that many (not all) engage in - above all else, this is a most perverse incentive, supporting the wastage of energy, and energy inefficient behaviour overall.

The IADB recently discussed the region’s energy landscape in their Caribbean Economics Quarterly report, covering The Bahamas, Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago. Their report highlights three crucial policy imperatives; reducing energy costs, achieving energy security, and strengthening regulatory frameworks, all fundamental to our socio-economic success; “access to reliable, low-cost electricity is among the most important drivers of growth and prosperity.”

We could not agree more.

| The Caribbean Energy Price Index - H2 2026 Update

Here are the major changes to the The Caribbean Energy Price Index in H2 2026, vs the H1 2026 edition:

1. Bonaire now has the highest nominal electricity price in the Caribbean, based on a 30% increase in their variable rate per KWh, plus their fixed cost.

2. NEVELEC reintroduced fuel charges this year, which pushed St. Kitts and Nevis from below the Caribbean average, to the 6th highest electricity prices in the region, also now above the Caribbean average.

3. Many countries increased their fuel surcharges to compensate for higher imported fuel prices, which caused some shifting around on the index.

4. For almost all countries in this index, we have improved our data sources and instead we now use individual local country sources rather than global databases (which tend to only reflect the base rate), and these local data sources will be used for all updates going forward.

You would note from the updated charts below, that on a nominal basis, Bonaire now has the highest cost of electricity in the region, followed by Saba, Bermuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Anguilla.

| But when we adjust for purchasing power :

• Bermuda remains at the top with the highest electricity prices in the region.

• The Turks and Caicos islands are still in second place.

• Barbados is still in third place.

• Anguilla overtook The Cayman Islands for fourth place, based on the former’s fuel surcharge increasing from XCD0.42 to XCD0.97 (though it was reduced to XCD0.85 a few days ago).

• The Cayman Islands is in 5th place.

• The Bahamas improved from 6th place to 10th place, and is now below the Caribbean average.

• St. Kitts and Nevis moved from below the Caribbean average to above the Caribbean average, with the 6th highest electricity prices in the region, based on NEVELEC fuel charges as discussed earlier.

• For The British Virgin Islands (BVI) and Sint Maarten, we used local data instead of global databases, so the prices reflected now include the surcharges vs only the base rate previously.

CHART 1: Caribbean Energy Price Index

This chart compares 2026 average nominal electricity prices as well as 2024 renewable electricity production as a percentage of total electricity production, across the Caribbean.

For each country, we collected the 2024 (latest available data) level of Renewable Electricity production as a proportion of total electricity production. We calculated the Caribbean simple average, as a benchmark. That average is taken across the 30 index countries that have a 2024 figure; Bonaire, Saba, Bermuda, Sint Maarten and St. Eustatius have no separate figure and are not counted in it.

For each country, we collected the latest nominal electricity rates available from domestic providers across user categories (residential at highest rate, commercial, and industrial where available) and calculated the simple average of available rates. Where applicable, the latest fuel charge per kWh was also included. This data for each country is then indexed against the Caribbean (simple) Average = 1.00.

Index Value = (Electricity Price in Country X) ÷ (Caribbean Average Electricity Price)

Interpretation: For example, an index value of 0.98 for Barbados means electricity prices in Barbados are 98% of the Caribbean average, or 2% lower than the Caribbean average, on a nominal basis. An index value of 1.30 for Antigua and Barbuda means that electricity prices there are 30% higher than the Caribbean average. In Belize, electricity prices are 64% of the Caribbean average, or 36% lower than the Caribbean average.

CHART 2: Purchasing Power-Adjusted Energy Price Index

This chart adjusts the nominal electricity prices from Chart 1 for differences in purchasing power (of USD equivalent) across Caribbean countries, similar to the way The Economist’s Big Mac Index compares the relative price of a Big Mac in different countries, reflecting local price levels and therefore, purchasing power.

We adjusted each country’s average nominal electricity price with cross-country purchasing power data from Penn World Table 11.0, which measures the relative cost of goods and services across countries. This calculation reveals how expensive electricity is, relative to purchasing power or what money can buy in each country, essentially showing the real financial burden of electricity costs on consumers. These adjusted prices are indexed so that the Caribbean average = 1.00. That base is the mean of the 24 price-and-level products shown here, so it is not the same population as Chart 1, which averages nominal prices across all 35 territories.

Purchasing Power-Adjusted Index Value = (Electricity Price in Country X × Price Level in Country X) ÷ the mean of that same product across the 24 countries shown

Interpretation: A LOWER index value indicates electricity is relatively MORE affordable and LESS financially burdensome. For example, an index value of 2.07 for Barbados means that given the domestic cost of living and purchasing power, electricity prices are more than two times as financially burdensome in Barbados than they are for the Caribbean on average, despite the fact that Barbados’ nominal electricity prices are 2% lower than the Caribbean average, as seen in Chart 1. Note also that based on this adjustment for purchasing power, Barbados holds the rank of the 3rd most financially burdensome cost of electricity in the Caribbean, and this is based on other factors which drive the cost of living up and purchasing power down (such as food prices, housing costs, taxes, etc.).

Note Belize, whose nominal electricity costs are 36% lower than the Caribbean average in Chart 1, but based on the cost of living and purchasing power therefore in Belize, the cost of electricity is just 39% of the Caribbean average, or 61% less financially burdensome. You can also think of these purchasing-power adjusted electricity prices as akin to ambient temperatures, where often the meteorologists would say it is 20 degrees Celsius today but it feels like 30, for example, based on other factors such as humidity and wind.

CHART 3: Caribbean Energy Price Index vs Renewable Energy Production

This chart compares the Renewable Electricity production level as a percentage of total electricity production, against the nominal energy price index calculated in Chart 1. In general, the countries with higher Renewable Energy Production tend to have lower energy prices, and the countries with the lowest levels of Renewable Energy production tend to have higher prices (with the obvious exception of Trinidad and Tobago which uses its own natural gas to generate electricity, which is then subsidized).

The dotted line is the least-squares fit across the 30 plotted territories. Its slope is negative: each additional percentage point of renewable production is associated with an index value roughly 0.008 lower, so a territory at 50% renewable sits about 0.40 below one at zero, on a Caribbean average of 1.00. The fit is loose. It explains 15% of the variation in price across these territories, so renewable share is one influence on price among several, and the chart should be read as a tendency rather than a rule.

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Disclosure

The Caribbean Energy Price Index is published in partnership with SOL Ecolution, the index sponsor. The data collection, methodology, analysis and editorial content are Marla Dukharan’s own.

Disclaimer: Marla Dukharan and GNM Group, LLC (herein MD) disclaims any liability for any loss or damages arising from errors, omissions, facts, views, information, and opinions in any of our content, reports, presentations, or publications. Some information contained in this report was prepared by or obtained from sources that MD believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of publication. MD has not independently verified all estimates, facts, and assumptions contained in this report. MD does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, fairness, or timeliness of the content provided herein. Recipients should not regard the information provided in this presentation, or any other content produced by MD as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any recommendations made in the presentation may be unsuitable for certain investors or decision-makers based on their specific investment or business objectives and their financial position. The report has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice, and MD is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. The information provided by MD as part of this report and online content derived thereafter is the property of MD, and cannot be copied, reproduced, modified, republished, repackaged, posted, displayed, transmitted, distributed, redistributed or sold in any way, either in whole or in any part without the prior written permission and consent of MD.

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_{We will be going deep into the implications of international events on the Caribbean and looking at resolving the injustices and inequities that keep us from achieving our true potential.}

Who is Cayman’s population growth actually for?

Cayman’s population growth is not organic. It is a fiscal strategy, and the Government has every incentive to keep it going.

I went looking for the relationship among population growth, GDP, Government revenue, employment, and construction in the Cayman Islands, and the pattern is stark.

Population is doubling on a clock, not by birth rate. Cayman’s population hit an estimated 90,577 in December 2025 and has doubled in 22 years, the fastest growth rate anywhere in the Caribbean. Strip out migration and the population would be shrinking: the fertility rate is 1 child per female against the 2.1 replacement rate. Every net new resident is someone who moved here.

Government revenue and GDP move almost in lockstep. I calculated a 98.9% correlation between the two; the Minister of Finance’s own number, stated in the 2026-2027 Budget Address, is 99.9%. When the economy grows, so does the Government’s take, almost exactly. That gives the Government a direct fiscal stake in population-driven growth.

The public sector has grown alongside it. Government spending is 96% correlated with public sector employment levels. The public sector now stands at 8,302 employees, roughly 13% of the total labour force, making Government the largest single employer in Cayman. I found a 91% correlation between the number of public sector workers and the number of work permits issued, meaning the same growth engine funds both.

Work permit fees are structured to reward high earners. Because permit fees scale with compensation, foreign workers occupy more than 40% of the highest-paid posts and more than 70% of the lowest-paid ones. The Government is fiscally better off pulling in high-wage foreign professionals than almost anyone else, and the report walks through why.

Roughly half of Government revenue comes from the Financial Services sector, which is also the single largest contributor to GDP. Put together, this looks like a form of fiscal redistribution similar to a petro-state, except Cayman’s finite resource is physical space, and there is no sovereign wealth fund behind it.

I ask the people this growth is actually about, Caymanians, to answer a 2-minute survey linked in the full report.

Yes, you read right - two thirds of the energy produced globally is WASTED, according to the World Bank. And every dollar invested in energy efficiency returns from USD3-5 and yields other obvious socio-economic benefits like lower energy poverty and reduced demands on taxpayers. What other investment yields 300% or more? As I type this from the Cayman Islands where all kinds of debates and petitions are underway regarding their energy costs and renewable transition, I am relieved that this Compass Editorial echoes what I have been long-lamenting, even on their platform - that the people of the Cayman Islands must collectively, and ideally unanimously decide what they want their population level to be in the next 10+ years, from which energy and all other infrastructure plans should cascade. Otherwise, with their eyes wide shut, Cayman is sprinting towards a limitless population by default.

The most important element of any solution to the region’s way-higher-than-global-average energy costs therefore, is NOT the transition to renewables, but the urgent reduction of energy waste in the first place, via fixing leaky grids and lowering our energy consumption (from any source) through efficiency and responsible consumption. Most building codes across the region still do not reflect the standards for energy efficient buildings adopted by CARICOM back in 2019. While our Governments perennially wring their hands at external shock after shock, and the resulting effects on our lives that they claim to have no control over, it costs them next to nothing to revise building codes to mandate higher efficiency standards at least for new builds. The EU ResemBid project found that homes that were retrofitted for energy efficiency consumed up to 60% less electricity. So what (vested interests/lobbyists/campaign financiers perhaps?) is really holding our Governments back from mandating and enforcing higher efficiency standards that lower our cost of living, reduce our fuel import bill, and cut subsidy costs to us, the taxpayers?

TAXPAYERS PAY TWICE – FOR INEFFICIENT & WASTED ENERGY, AND SUBSIDIES

Switching to renewable energy should be the second priority for several reasons beyond lowering emissions. Supporting energy independence reduces reliance on imported fuel, with positive implications for the cost of living and doing business, and foreign exchange reserves, reducing our vulnerability to external (geopolitical) shocks and potential political interference. Renewable energy also provides more stable and predictable energy prices, cuts the billions of taxpayers’ income spent on subsidies, and results in better socio-economic outcomes for everyone.

On the issue of energy efficiency, size matters, but planning matters more. While rooftop solar under the right conditions can be great for lowering consumers’ energy costs, without sufficient (usually costly) battery storage and insurance, we risk the grid instability that Barbados has been battling for some time. The answer, as with most things, rests with proper planning and preparation. Whether a nationwide rooftop and/or utility-scale and/or small-scale solar approach is adopted for our urgent renewable energy transition, the appropriate disaster-readiness, battery storage (distributed and/or utility), and insurance, must factor into the solution from the outset. In general, utility scale solar is more efficient because it is angled perfectly to align (and move) with the sun versus rooftops which angle less precisely, such that a 5MW utility scale solar farm can provide as much energy as 14.5MW in rooftop solar, for example, once energy loss via the grid is minimized. Also, modern utility scale solar installations are generally more disaster-ready than (older) rooftop solar installations, are built fit for purpose, and are insured.

Bottom line, rather than throwing our taxes away on subsidies, our Governments and regulators must do better at updating and enforcing building codes for higher energy efficiency standards, at awarding contracts in a timely manner for urgent energy solutions, and at PLANNING properly alongside their regulated entities, for what the future holds. And this brings me to my final point. Didn’t anyone in Barbados think this through - that net-metering and duty waivers on solar would incentivize rooftop installations and inevitably destabilize the grid, in the absence of appropriate battery installations? Hopefully the Cayman Islands and other Caribbean countries will learn from this example and plan their renewable energy transition better, given growing population and energy consumption.

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Mark Carney broke the internet in January with his shocking revelation in Davos “that the rules based order is fading, that the strong can do what they can, and the weak must suffer what they must...when the rules no longer protect you, you must protect yourself” etc etc. And throughout the ‘middle powers’ ensuing tantrums and crashouts, the rest of us carried on as we always have, pragmatically navigating life within their power-based order. We could never afford the luxury of being fooled by the deeply hypocritical narrative of a ‘rules based order’, because their rules and consequences really only ever applied to us, the powerless. So please, spare us your pretense and macha-latte fueled meltdowns - this is really about some insiders suddenly becoming terrified and marginalized outsiders – a condition we chronically live with, even when there were (ahem) ‘adults in the room’.

I am writing this now from a place and a people as far away (and outside) from Davos as one can imagine, geographically, economically, and spiritually. Where big countries are innately understood to play by different rules, if not altogether different games. Because Vanuatu is a country, not unlike its neighbours across the South Pacific and cousins in the Caribbean, with a long history of extraction and exploitation, which has taught us all to expect a certain type of behaviour from the powerful. And they consistently deliver, just as expected. They are that girl.

RULES IN THE ‘RULES BASED ORDER’ REALLY ONLY APPLY TO THE POWERLESS

Vanuatu is one of the first countries that the European Union (EU) blacklisted – twice - a decade ago and is one of only six countries backlisted by the EU for the longest period of time - over 3,500 days - alongside Afghanistan, North Korea, Iran, Syria, and Yemen. The EU continues to blacklist Vanuatu without justification (or shame), and with complete impunity, even though the FATF removed Vanuatu from the grey list on June 29 2018, and as of 2019, the OECD declared Vanuatu largely compliant and not listed as an uncooperative tax haven, with no major concerns raised by the OECD regarding its zero corporate tax structure. This timeline of this saga reads more like fiction, but you could not make this stuff up. The truth is often even more shocking and unbelievable than any story - or lie.

“In December 2025 - The European Commission announces the thirteenth iteration of its AML-CFT list. The changes faithfully reflect all recent additions to the FATF grey list (Bolivia, BVI) as well as deletions (Burkina Faso, Mali, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania). Russia is also added, despite not being listed by the FATF, following a separate resolution. Vanuatu remains on the (EU black)list.” Vanuatu should now take the EU to the ICC for this ongoing economic warfare, as there is zero (attempt at) justification for the EU’s double blacklisting of Vanuatu.

Might is right. Evidently the rich and powerful (insiders) can do whatever they want in this world, without the need for justification, and often with complete impunity and zero shame. This is not new. What is different now is that not only has the veil been lifted for those who somehow insisted on wearing it - it has been burned. At least there is no doubt or pretense now that this is absolutely how the world works and has always worked. The powerless (outsiders) will (conveniently) be held to higher (weaponized) standards and demonized when we fall short. We will be pragmatic. We will negotiate with whatever we have. We will strive to comply with the rules of their game, even to our peril. We will complain and ask for compensation, but we will not die waiting. We will keep on keeping on. Indeed, what other choice do we really have? Fellow outsiders, especially those new to this side of the fence, it is time to tell the children the truth now, to avoid any unnecessary Mark Carney Davos moments when they grow up.

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Disclaimer: Marla Dukharan and GNM Group, LLC (herein MD) disclaims any liability for any loss or damages arising from errors, omissions, facts, views, information, and opinions in any of our content, reports, presentations, or publications. Some information contained in this report was prepared by or obtained from sources that MD believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of publication. MD has not independently verified all estimates, facts, and assumptions contained in this report. MD does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, fairness, or timeliness of the content provided herein. Recipients should not regard the information provided in this presentation, or any other content produced by MD as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any recommendations made in the presentation may be unsuitable for certain investors or decision-makers based on their specific investment or business objectives and their financial position. The report has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice, and MD is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. The information provided by MD as part of this report and online content derived thereafter is the property of MD, and cannot be copied, reproduced, modified, republished, repackaged, posted, displayed, transmitted, distributed, redistributed or sold in any way, either in whole or in any part without the prior written permission and consent of MD.

Someone is using my face, my voice, and my name to steal from people in our region. AI-generated deepfake videos are circulating on Facebook, directing unsuspecting people to fake investment platforms promising guaranteed returns. These are not me. I have never endorsed them.

The Caribbean has always had to fight for its narrative. Now that fight has moved into the digital space, and the weapons are more sophisticated than ever. These deepfake videos and fake articles misappropriating my name and likeness are not merely “fake news” - they are predatory, extractive, and designed to manipulate you into endorsing and participating in financial products and services I have never even heard of.

To be clear: If a post, video, or article claiming to be me is not hosted on my official website or verified channels, it is a fabrication. Period. I do not endorse get-rich-quick schemes or “investments,” and I certainly do not promote financial platforms or services through advertisements.

The only place my real work lives is marladukharan.com - where you can access my monthly Caribbean Economic Report for free - an open-access resource intended to ensure that facts, not fakes, determine our regional reality. My official channels are:

• marladukharan.com - My full body of work, reports, and analysis

• LinkedIn | Substack - Deep dives and economic context

• Medium- Accessible analysis for wider audiences

• Facebook | Instagram | YouTube - Real-time updates and official video content

If you see an ad featuring my likeness, do not click it. Report it directly to Meta or the relevant platform. That single action protects the next person.

Facts, not fakes, determine our regional reality. Let’s keep it that way.

With gratitude, Marla.

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The information provided by MD as part of this report and online content derived thereafter is the property of MD, and cannot be copied, reproduced, modified, republished, repackaged, posted, displayed, transmitted, distributed, redistributed or sold in any way, either in whole or in any part without the prior written permission and consent of MD.

Trinidad and Tobago was removed from the European Union’s (EU) tax blacklist in February 2026. According to Caribbean economist Marla Dukharan, this development is neither a reputational victory nor a material economic opportunity - it is an admission that the EU’s blacklisting was baseless from the outset.

Dukharan’s central argument: EU tax and AML/CFT blacklists are illegitimate political instruments that have nothing to do with actual tax or anti-money laundering compliance.

Why EU Blacklisting Lacks Legitimacy: Marla Dukharan’s Framework

Marla Dukharan’s analysis identifies three fundamental problems with EU blacklisting:

1. Self-Appointed Authority

The EU unilaterally declared itself the global authority on tax and AML/CFT matters, imposing standards beyond those of the OECD (tax) and FATF (AML/CFT).

Dukharan’s assessment: “The EU was never the authority on global Tax or AML / CFT matters. They appointed themselves as such and unilaterally decided what standards, rules and assessments to impose on us.”

2. Failure to Achieve Stated Objectives

EU blacklisting has not reduced tax abuse, money laundering, terrorism financing, or illicit financial flows, according to Dukharan’s research.

Key evidence cited by Dukharan: EU member states and OECD countries account for the vast majority of global tax abuse and money laundering, as evidenced by their domination of the Tax Justice Network’s Financial Secrecy Index, but none of these EU / OECD jurisdictions have ever been EU blacklisted.

3. Discriminatory Application

Dukharan’s evidence for political and racial bias in EU blacklisting:

• Russia’s blacklisting timeline: Russia became the first predominantly white country blacklisted by the EU in February 2023 - one full year after invading Ukraine, and only after EU sanctions took effect

• Financial Secrecy Index discrepancy: Predominantly white countries at the top of the Tax Justice Network’s Financial Secrecy Index have never been blacklisted

• EU’s stated rationale for Russia’s AML/CFT blacklisting: “This will slow down and increase the costs of transactions with Russian banks” - not compliance-related language

Context from European diplomacy: Even senior EU diplomats have framed global relations in colonial terms. EU High Representative Josep Borrell stated that “Europe is a garden” while the rest of the world is a jungle. See his full remarks here.

Economic Impact Analysis: Marla Dukharan’s Assessment of T&T’s Delisting

Does Trinidad and Tobago’s removal from the EU Tax blacklist materially change its economic outlook?

Marla Dukharan’s analysis: No. This is not even a reputational victory but rather an admission of baseless blacklisting. Also, T&T remains on the EU’s AML / CFT blacklist, so not much has really changed in their stance towards T&T.

Context: According to Dukharan, the EU’s credibility and relevance on compliance matters has already been eroded, particularly with UN Tax Convention negotiations now underway.

Will this increase foreign direct investment to T&T?

Dukharan’s forecast: Unlikely to produce material change.

Supporting analysis:

• European trade and investment flows to T&T rank behind China, USA, and UK

• The EU has been “losing relevance in the Caribbean and globally, steadily over time, partly because of blacklisting”

• T&T remains on the EU’s AML / CFT blacklist, so enhanced due diligence requirements for European entities transacting with T&T are unlikely to change, but EU flows represent a minority of T&T’s investment flows in any event.

Could EU delisting lower T&T’s borrowing costs or improve sovereign risk perception?

Dukharan’s assessment: No material impact expected as T&T is still EU blacklisted for AML / CFT, and also, the EU blacklist’s credibility “has diminished over time as everyone outside of Europe woke up to the reality of the farce that is the EU’s blacklists.”

Rationale: Global investors outside Europe do not emphasize EU blacklisting in their sovereign credit risk analysis.

The Vanuatu Parallel: Political Weaponization of EU Blacklists

According to Marla Dukharan’s analysis, the only other country besides Trinidad and Tobago to be blacklisted twice by the EU is Vanuatu.

Dukharan’s interpretation of Vanuatu’s blacklisting: It is likely that the EU’s blacklisting of Vanuatu is mostly political in nature; in an effort to discourage neighboring New Caledonia from seeking independence from France, or in aligning more closely with other countries. Furthermore, France also seeks to retain jurisdiction over two disputed islands in Vanuatu, which give France 350,000 square kilometers of exclusive economic zone. Finally, see remarks delivered by France’s President Macron during his visit to Vanuatu, implicitly warning against Chinese alliances in the region.

Dukharan’s conclusion: “The EU weaponizes these blacklists for their racist and political agendas and to consolidate power, which is absolutely abhorrent and unacceptable behavior, and whcih has no place in the new Global Order that is being shaped.”

What Should T&T Do Instead? Marla Dukharan’s Strategic Recommendations

Rather than focusing on EU/OECD compliance, Dukharan recommends Trinidad and Tobago prioritize:

1. Active participation in UN Tax Convention negotiations - engaging directly in the creation of genuinely inclusive and multilateral tax standards

2. Strengthening relationships with BRICS and Global South partners - particularly China, India and UAE, which have proven reliable economic partners

3. Deepening ties with the USA - which has never blacklisted Caribbean countries

Dukharan’s rationale: “Why would we want to comply with standards that the EU and OECD countries themselves don’t comply with? Why would we want to comply with standards that were created by the Global North to achieve their growth at the expense of the Global South?”

Further Analysis by Marla Dukharan on EU Blacklisting

• The Historic Africa-Led UN Tax Convention: The Decolonization Opportunity of a Lifetime

• The UN Tax Convention: The Only Morally and Practically Sound Option

• Propaganda, Perception and Power: Who Are the True Enablers of Financial Crime?

• Venezuela, Vanuatu and the Vatican: If You Don’t Have God, You Better Have Oil

• All of Marla Dukharan’s research on EU blacklisting: marladukharan.com/blacklist/

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Disclaimer: Marla Dukharan and GNM Group, LLC (herein MD) disclaims any liability for any loss or damages arising from errors, omissions, facts, views, information, and opinions in any of our content, reports, presentations, or publications. Some information contained in this report was prepared by or obtained from sources that MD believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of publication. MD has not independently verified all estimates, facts, and assumptions contained in this report. MD does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, fairness, or timeliness of the content provided herein. Recipients should not regard the information provided in this presentation, or any other content produced by MD as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any recommendations made in the presentation may be unsuitable for certain investors or decision-makers based on their specific investment or business objectives and their financial position. The report has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice, and MD is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. The information provided by MD as part of this report and online content derived thereafter is the property of MD, and cannot be copied, reproduced, modified, republished, repackaged, posted, displayed, transmitted, distributed, redistributed or sold in any way, either in whole or in any part without the prior written permission and consent of MD.

As discussed in my last Special Report on Venezuela and on David McWilliams’ podcast, while the sky falls and our neighbours’ homes burn, it is imperative now more than ever to wet our own homes by sharpening our focus on the things we can control and must fix. Fortunately for us, the Caribbean is rich in many ways, not the least of which is chronic problems that somehow manage to remain to be SOLved. But there is one most fundamental and pervasive problem with spillovers onto everything else, therefore representing the largest upside potential if reSOLved, especially now - energy.

Paradoxically, despite claiming Guyana, possibly the most resource-rich country on Earth on a per capita basis, and having a few other oil and gas exporting territories, the Caribbean is one of the most energy constrained regions in the world. Bermuda has the highest electricity prices globally, Cayman is #4, Bahamas #12, Barbados #16, Jamaica #20. And these relatively high prices are based on our high energy intensity, electrical losses, high (energy and almost everything else) import dependence, aging and inefficient (energy, and otherwise) infrastructure, low climate resilience, and high energy taxes. Energy costs and unreliability have had deep and chronic socio-economic implications. According to the Atlantic Council, the Caribbean “needs to build competitive and resilient economies, which can only be done with access to affordable and reliable energy.” Our energy challenges combine with severe and worsening natural disaster effects, as we saw recently following hurricane Melissa’s devastation in Jamaica, to create a twin crisis in the Caribbean, according to the IMF. And these crises ultimately guarantee our socio-economic decline if not SOLved urgently and sustainably.

The SOLutions are ‘simple’ but not easy – engaging in greater levels of regional cooperation to derive various efficiencies and economies of scale, and towards diversifying our energy sources geographically, optimizing our energy mix, investing in resilient electricity infrastructure via concessional (multilateral and PPP) funding and execution, and modernizing the legal and regulatory framework to facilitate all of the above. But the Caribbean has lagged in implementing these crucial reforms, largely based on overlapping bureaucratic constraints. How can we as Caribbean people overcome this most powerful roadblock to our progress, posed by the very authorities elected to and responsible for making our lives better?

EVERYTHING IS DOWNSTREAM OF ENERGY

My first choice? Bring all relevant stakeholders together with bankable energy and natural disaster resilience SOLutions fully agreed and mapped out end-to-end for each Caribbean country, and hand it over to the policymakers with clear and detailed instructions as to their input and the timeframes by which they are needed for the SOLutions to work, and publicly hold them to account for delivery with an EPOC-like committee. I know, I know, if wishes were horses etc etc.

In the meantime - knowledge is power (pun intended!). Educating the public, including policymakers, on the direct negative impacts that our energy crisis creates for Caribbean people, the causes and the SOLutions - is perhaps the best place to start in building awareness and a sense of urgency around implementing the SOLutions. There is abundant literature on the Caribbean’s energy challenges, but surprisingly, there is no one repository of basic information on energy in the Caribbean. To SOLve this problem, I have joined forces with the Caribbean’s foremost renewable energy player, SOL Ecolution, a subsidiary of The SOL Group, the largest mover of petroleum products in the region. Together we have launched the MD - SOL Ecolution Energy Index showing the nominal average price of electricity by country across the Caribbean, and that cost of electricity by country adjusted for the relative cost of living in each country, to demonstrate relative ‘affordability’ of electricity. And this is just the start. We welcome your feedback, including suggestions on other information that would be useful to you towards SOLving the Caribbean’s twin crises, and making our lives better.

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Disclaimer: Marla Dukharan and GNM Group, LLC (herein MD) disclaims any liability for any loss or damages arising from errors, omissions, facts, views, information, and opinions in any of our content, reports, presentations, or publications. Some information contained in this report was prepared by or obtained from sources that MD believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of publication. MD has not independently verified all estimates, facts, and assumptions contained in this report. MD does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, fairness, or timeliness of the content provided herein. Recipients should not regard the information provided in this presentation, or any other content produced by MD as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any recommendations made in the presentation may be unsuitable for certain investors or decision-makers based on their specific investment or business objectives and their financial position. The report has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice, and MD is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. The information provided by MD as part of this report and online content derived thereafter is the property of MD, and cannot be copied, reproduced, modified, republished, repackaged, posted, displayed, transmitted, distributed, redistributed or sold in any way, either in whole or in any part without the prior written permission and consent of MD.

The U.S. capture of Nicolas Maduro and his wife over the weekend has triggered reactions ranging from tearful relief and exuberant hope on one extreme, to violent outrage towards the U.S.A. on the other.

US President Donald Trump has cited the Monroe Doctrine in justifying the invasion of Venezuela, based on accusations of Venezuela’s complicit if not active role in human rights violations, organized crime, and the trans-shipment of illegal drugs into the U.S.A.

“This is an illegal invasion of a sovereign country” and “This is a criminal dictatorship that should be brought to justice” are both held as the truth, at the same time.

But I feel like we are missing the point. I think the real question we should be asking is where is the domestic and international / multilateral justice system in all of this?

“This is a criminal dictatorship that should be brought to justice” is a valid argument, but almost nothing was done for decades to stop the regime’s human rights abuses against Venezuelan people. So here we are now with “This is an illegal invasion of a sovereign country” even though accountability for Venezuela’s criminal regime is largely welcomed in principle.

One would think that we must already have in place, internationally and domestically, justice and accountability mechanisms to address these and any illegality or wrongdoing of this magnitude and over such an obscenely extended period. In fact, we do have an international justice system based on (most) countries’ signing treaties on how they will treat each other and their people. But when (‘leaders’ of) countries breach these international treaties and agreements which govern how (‘leaders’ of) countries should behave, what happens then, and what are the consequences?

Venezuela — Oily-garchy extraordinaire

Indeed, as I had written here back in 2023, the international community has been complicit in Venezuela’s illegal activities for decades, including many Caribbean member states who have immorally bathed in Venezuela’s subsidized oil via PetroCaribe for years, while Venezuelans perished and / or fled their country. Of course PetroCaribe member states will defend Maduro and his regime, and rail against Trinidad and Tobago’s decision to cooperate with the U.S.A.; back in 2012 I calculated that Caribbean debt to Venezuela ranged from USD91 million by Dominica to USD11billion by the Dominican Republic, then exceeding 20%/GDP for all PetroCaribe member states except Suriname.

Published in the IFC Review in 2023, “Google ‘oligarch’ and the results reflect the prevailing narrative that they are largely Russian/Soviet. But oily-garchies are everywhere, because the Paradox of Plenty predisposes resource-rich countries to subpar socio-economic outcomes, mainly because their extractive institutions promote corruption and kleptocracy (oligarchy’s jealous lover).”

“The resource curse’s poster child has to be Venezuela — likely at once the world’s most resource-rich country (with the world’s largest proven reserves of oil, and vast deposits of gold, bauxite, iron ore and coal), and possibly the world’s most decayed, into a narco-terrorist oligarchy.”

“The Global Organized Crime Index reports “The Venezuelan state is accused of involvement in contraband, cocaine smuggling, money laundering, patronage, the illegal exploitation of natural resources, exchange-rate manipulation, and corruption schemes related to the distribution of food and medicine.” Hezbollah allegedly “helped to turn Venezuela into a hub for the convergence of transnational organized crime and international terrorism…has facilitated Iran’s cooperation with the Maduro regime.”

“Venezuela has been mortgaging its oil to China and Russia and maintains significant ties including weapons manufacturing deals with the latter. Venezuela’s (oil-for-diplomacy) PetroCaribe deal affects China’s (indirect) political influence across the Caribbean.”

“But while tiny Caribbean countries are indefensibly blacklisted by the EU et al, and pressured constantly by the OECD and FATF, Venezuela’s feet have somehow never been held to that fire, despite evidence of widespread state-sanctioned criminal activity.”

“Indeed, several individuals and entities in Venezuela have been sanctioned/banned by the US, UK, EU, Canada, Mexico, Panama, Switzerland, and Colombia, for terrorism, human rights abuses, corruption, drugs, weapons and human trafficking, etc. In 2009 the FATF reported “Venezuela has been classified as a transit country for illicit drugs…which account for the largest proportion of money laundering activities…corruption, which accounts for the largest number of cases analysed by the FIU, after…drug trafficking.”

“In 2021 the OECD published “Gold Flows From Venezuela” highlighting significant illicit financial flows and “actual or potential risks of severe human rights abuses, conflict financing and other financial crimes”. Otherwise, Venezuela appears to be invisible to the OECD, with no evidence of peer reviews or presence on OECD lists. And despite EU sanctions, Venezuela has never been EU-blacklisted. Venezuela’s enormous natural resource endowment has made it invisible to the FATF, OECD and EU, and this invisibility cloak is likely to remain intact.”

Despite all this US, United Nations (UN), and European reporting of state-sponsored criminality in Venezuela, and US, EU, Canada, Swiss and Latin American sanctions against Venezuela, only in August 2025 did the EU include Venezuela in its AML/CFT blacklist. And only on Monday 5th January 2026, did the Swiss authorities freeze assets linked to Nicolas Maduro.

Let that sink in.

The International (in)Justice System and Venezuela

The International Criminal Court (ICC) is a criminal tribunal that will prosecute individuals for genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and aggression, while the The International Court of Justice (ICJ or World Court) is a civil tribunal that hears disputes between countries. Both courts are bodies of the UN.

Only in 2021 did the ICC commence its investigation on Venezuela, and there are those who assert that Nicolas Maduro and associates should be tried at the ICC and not via the U.S. court system, citing that the U.S. has no jurisdiction in matters concerning Venezuela or any other sovereign nation. And there are those who believe that the U.S. President Donald Trump and his people should also be brought to justice at the ICC for war crimes and acts of aggression for illegally invading a sovereign country and capturing its (illegitimate) leader. What is likely to come out of this, from a legal standpoint?

In 2021 the ICC opened an investigation into possible crimes against humanity in Venezuela, initiated via referral by Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Paraguay, Peru, and Canada. In June 2023, the ICC authorized the investigation after Venezuela’s national proceedings were found insufficient. The ICC opened an office in Caracas to support this investigation, but this office was closed in late 2025 based on a lack of cooperation from the Venezuelan authorities, though the ICC investigation itself continues.

I had a look at the cases underway at the ICC, which triggered severe EU Blacklisting flashbacks; the list of ICC cases seems rather dark to me.

Apart from Israel (which the US protested) and Russia, there is not a single ICC case against any Global North country. Below is a list of arrest warrants issued by the ICC, and the countries these individuals are from:

The fact there have been no ICC arrest warrants or convictions of US, UK, or European nationals (apart from Russia) is not accidental — it is predictable because of how this system is designed. The international justice system is at once completely embedded in existing global power structures which favour the Global North, and reinforces existing power dynamics specifically and deliberately at the expense of weaker countries. Now, this is not to say that criminals in the Global South should go unpunished, but why are they punished disproportionately vs those in the Global North?

How the ICC Works, and Doesn’t Work

Globally, 125 countries are States Parties to the Rome Statute of the ICC. The countries that are NOT State Parties to the ICC include the U.S.A., China, Russia, India, and Israel, for example.

1. Firstly, and most notably, the ICC does not have universal jurisdiction. It can only prosecute if at least one of the following conditions are met:

• The accused is a national of a State Party of the ICC

• The accused is a national of a State Party of the ICC

1. The crime occurred on the territory of a State Party

2. Members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) formally complain to the ICC

3. The ICC was designed to coexist with the UNSC, the members of which are the USA, Russia, China, France, and the UK. Yes, you read correctly, only the UK and France are both permanent members of the UNSC and State Parties to the ICC.

4. UNSC members can refer non-State Party countries to the ICC if the crime occurred in the territory of a State Party (which is how arrest warrants were issued against Russians as Ukraine is a State Party).

5. Each UNSC member country has veto power over who gets referred to the ICC.

6. The UNSC could (under Article 16) also completely block (under UNSC Resolutions 1422 (2002) and 1487 (2003) which granted peacekeeping personnel temporary immunity from ICC prosecution from non-State Parties) or defer ICC investigations for 12 months (which is renewable). It should be noted that Article 16 was never successfully invoked, however.

7. If at least one of the conditions under point 1 above are met, and the UNSC members do not veto (e.g. as Russia and China did when Syria and Myanmar were referred to the ICC), then the ICC can proceed.

8. Complimentarity — the ICC is a court of last resort. Under Article 17 of the Rome Statute, a case is inadmissible if a state is investigating or prosecuting the same conduct, even if those proceedings are weak or symbolic. So countries can (and do) open their own domestic inquiries and close cases without prosecution. Now, recall that in June 2023, the ICC authorized the resumption of the investigation on Venezuela’s regime after Venezuela’s national proceedings were found insufficient. There are only two other cases in which the ICC has found domestic proceedings insufficient and has gone ahead with its own investigation, or determined the case remained admissible despite national action, based on this principle of complementarity: against Simone Gbagbo (Côte d’Ivoire) and Saif al-Islam Gaddafi and Co-Accused (Libya). It is important to note that conversely, the ICC decided to close its Iraq/UK preliminary examination — even when there was a reasonable basis to believe war crimes were committed in Iraq — because the UK was conducting its own domestic investigations. This clearly demonstrates that powerful states with (in)credible domestic legal proceedings can, in practice, preclude ICC action.

9. The ICC has no police. Even if ICC jurisdiction exists and an arrest warrant is issued, the ICC cannot arrest anyone and it depends entirely on state cooperation and enforcement.

All of the above explains why:

1. No arrest warrant has ever been issued by the ICC for a U.S. citizen, given that the U.S.A. is not a state party to the ICC and has veto power at the UNSC.

2. International arrest warrants for Europeans have only been issued when the UNSC created a bespoke tribunal (not the ICC) under exceptional geopolitical conditions, as in the case with the former Yugoslavia.

3. The only time an arrest warrant was ever issued by the ICC for Europeans was in March 2023 for various Russian officials including President Vladimir Putin (as outlined in the table above) because Ukraine is a State Party to the ICC and the crimes occurred within its territory.

4. Coinciding with the ICC’s first ever issuance of arrest warrants for Europeans (Russians specifically) is the EU’s first ever blacklisting of a predominantly white country, being Russia, on February 14th 2023. This demonstrates the hypocrisy and convenience with which these institutions claim jurisdiction and impose sanctions.

5. This was also the first time that arrest warrants had been issued by the ICC for citizens of a permanent member of the UNSC.

6. In the case of Israel / Palestine, while there was no collective UNSC pushback per se, the U.S.A. and U.K. exercised political pressure on the ICC independently, and ultimately unsuccessfully.

7. The ICC’s jurisdictional map covers far more of the Global South than it does the Global North.

In summary therefore :

Is Russia truly an exception, given the ICC arrest warrants?

• It is not a State Party to the ICC

• It is a UNSC member and veto holder

• It holds massive military and trade leverage

Although warrants were issued, there have been no arrests (recall that the ICC has no police of its own), therefore no trials have been held and as such there have been no convictions.

International arrest warrants mean little in practical terms, except perhaps travel restrictions, as the case of former Suriname President Desi Bouterse suggests. Indeed, this list of international fugitives which includes Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu who maintain active leadership of their countries, demonstrates the practical limitations and arguably symbolic nature of (certain) ICC arrest warrants.

All of the above demonstrates clearly that the international judicial system operates within global power hierarchies — not above them. The ICC is law constrained by geopolitics, not law transcending it. This global legal and judicial structure therefore reinforces existing global power dynamics’ social and political-economy implications for SIDS and the Caribbean as highly open trade and aid dependent economies.

Bottom line — the U.S. will likely never face the ICC for this or any action taken against another state, including Venezuela. And while Venezuela is currently under investigation by the ICC, the fact that decades passed from the time evidence of wrongdoing first surfaced internationally until the ICC investigation began, is grossly unsatisfactory to say the least.

We can’t slowly and selectively (and therefore hypocritically) pursue justice — it must be applied swiftly and universally. As Martin Luther King Jr. famously lamented, “injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere”.

Apart from this current U.S. action against Venezuela’s regime, which country ever attempted to hold the Venezuelan regime accountable for its criminal actions against its own people? How can anyone truly have faith in a system that was complicit, until the U.S. stepped in (whether legally or otherwise)? And how can anyone completely condemn the U.S.’s actions if it frees the Venezuelan people from a criminal regime, even if the US ultimately cares about Venezuela’s natural resources more than innocent Venezuelans? And if Venezuela did not have any natural resources…well, one just has to look north to Haiti to see what’s possible. At the end of it all, the international legal / judicial systems failed the people of Venezuela, for decades, and we need to start there.

And finally, unless there is universal enforcement of laws and agreements, and independent universal accountability, there is nothing stopping the powerful and / or the criminal from doing whatever they want to, with impunity. The system must create a mechanism whereby sanctions can be imposed and effected swiftly and universally against individual criminal ‘leaders’ otherwise the incentive structure supports ongoing wrongdoing.

Where does that leave us, and What to do?

This is the hard part.

Reforming the international justice system, which at once is underpinned by and reinforces the existing global power structure, is as near impossible as one can imagine.

Where is BRICS on this matter?

If the BRICS institution is serious about defending and strengthening its position in the shifting world order, it must push as a matter of urgency for comprehensive reform or replacement of the current international justice framework, which at once supports and is reinforced by the existing international economic system and global power dynamics, dominated by the Global North. Correcting this structural imbalance is crucial. Otherwise, how will BRICS ever become truly relevant to the rest of the Global South members which are currently marginalized by the Global North? Alternatively, it may appear more beneficial for weaker nations to yield ‘sovereignty’ and align with stronger Global North countries that promise to protect them, and this will only weaken BRICS.

What can ordinary people of the Caribbean expect and do now?

As long as regional and international travel and shipping are interrupted, there will be negative socio-economic impacts for us in the Caribbean. Confidence however, will take even longer to return, as uncertainty is currently at levels never seen before (including during the pandemic).

Making sure you have enough supply of important medications and necessary imported food items (not toilet paper!) is advisable therefore. Oil prices are already inching higher, and this could have broad-based inflationary impacts. Furthermore, governments should move to insulate their populations from potential retail price gouging which we know accounted for at least 50% of price increases during and post-pandemic.

And speaking of Caribbean leaders, some of them may be subject to U.S. indictment as well, OR the U.S. may be able to use this as an opportunity to negotiate their cooperation — “Through this drug trafficking, NICOLAS MADURO MOROS, the defendant, and corrupt members of his regime enabled corruption fueled by drug trafficking throughout the region. The transshipment points in Honduras, Guatemala, and Mexico similarly relied on a culture of corruption, in which cocaine traffickers operating in those countries paid a portion of their own profits to politicians who protected and aided them. In turn, these politicians used the cocaine fueled payments to maintain and augment their political power. So, too, were politicians along the “Caribbean route” corrupted by cocaine traffickers, who would pay them for protection from arrest and to allow favored traffickers to operate with impunity as they trafficked cocaine from Venezuela north towards the United States. Thus, at every step-relying on the producers in Colombia, transporters and distributors in Venezuela, and recipients and re-distributors on transshipment points north-the traffickers enriched themselves and their corrupt benefactors who protected and aided them.”

This announcement should come as no surprise given, for example, the 1987 Scott Drug Report based on a commission of enquiry in T&T which highlighted the involvement of corrupt officials at the highest levels, through to the 2024 U.S. conviction of the former Premier of the British Virgin Islands, who proudly boasted “this is not my first rodeo” as he unwittingly negotiated with U.S. undercover agents.

Drug trafficking and all its attendant nastiness has been a chronic malignancy rotting the institutional structures and sabotaging the socio-economic journey of Caribbean people for at least a generation.

The Caribbean could now possibly hope to be rid of any or all such criminal elements, again via the U.S. court system, as shamefully, no Caribbean official has ever been convicted of drug trafficking in Caribbean courts — only in U.S. courts, which is something we as Caribbean people need to hold our own judiciaries to account for.

We can expect some nervousness and disruption in the Caribbean and Latin America more broadly, at the political level at least. Maybe some corrupt and criminal agents will go down, but I anticipate that many if not all Caribbean leaders will quickly align with the U.S. on this matter of prosecuting Maduro and his regime, Caribbean PetroCaribe and Chinese alliances notwithstanding, particularly where the U.S. has any evidence of wrongdoing on the part of (former) Caribbean and Latin American officials and politicians, and their allies. Watch this space.

Finally, in keeping with the Serenity Prayer, and in the interest of our mental health, perhaps we should focus on the things we can control within our own lives, and do our best to be kind to one another as we ‘wet our own houses’.

And above all, we hope and pray that this all results in stability and a better quality of life towards true freedom for the innocent people of Venezuela, both at home and abroad.

“Some will eat and drink with you

Then behind them su-su ‘pon you

Only your friend know your secrets

So only he could reveal it”

- Who the Cap Fit, Bob Marley and the Wailers

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Disclaimer: Marla Dukharan and GNM Group, LLC (herein MD) disclaims any liability for any loss or damages arising from errors, omissions, facts, views, information, and opinions in any of our content, reports, presentations, or publications. Some information contained in this report was prepared by or obtained from sources that MD believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of publication. MD has not independently verified all estimates, facts, and assumptions contained in this report. MD does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, fairness, or timeliness of the content provided herein. Recipients should not regard the information provided in this presentation, or any other content produced by MD as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any recommendations made in the presentation may be unsuitable for certain investors or decision-makers based on their specific investment or business objectives and their financial position. The report has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice, and MD is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. The information provided by MD as part of this report and online content derived thereafter is the property of MD, and cannot be copied, reproduced, modified, republished, repackaged, posted, displayed, transmitted, distributed, redistributed or sold in any way, either in whole or in any part without the prior written permission and consent of MD.

As hurricanes, floods and fires ravage the planet, so too was COP30 in Brazil. Further to the previous month’s editorial suggesting that the climate justice argument for financing natural disaster recovery and climate adaptation more broadly could benefit from some adjustment towards a climate compassion approach, here we are with yet another disappointing COP outcome; failure to commit to a fossil fuel phase-out, failure to collectively commit to action to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C, and failure to agree on who pays for climate adaptation, though rich countries tripled their commitment to low-income countries to USD300 billion annually by 2035. Whether this will actually materialize is anyone’s guess.

Alas, it would appear that while there is merit in participating in this (weakened) multilateral effort, its longstanding but accelerated largely politically-driven failures have heightened the imperative to ‘wet one’s house’, as discussed on CMR TV’s Friday 21st Nov premiere of Finding Our Freedom with Dr. Damien King, MD of the Caribbean Policy Research Institute (CAPRI) in Jamaica and Isaac Anthony, CEO of the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF SPC, which made the largest payout in its history to Jamaica following Hurricane Melissa).

Meanwhile, estimates of Hurricane Melissa’s physical damages to Jamaica continue to climb, currently around USD8 billion, over 40% of GDP, with thousands homeless, fires breaking out, and infectious diseases spreading. While Jamaica had ‘wet its house’ arguably more than ever in its history and more than most SIDS, there is still a shortfall of over USD7 billion and climbing. How will this gap be filled? The answer to this question will be one of the most important drivers of Jamaica’s socio-economic trajectory for the next two decades at least, given that research has demonstrated that the effects of major climate events are socio-economically evident more than twenty years later.

HOT LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES SUFFER THE LARGEST COSTS

Acevedo et al found that “rising temperatures have highly uneven macroeconomic effects, with the adverse consequences borne disproportionately by countries with hot climates, such as most low-income countries…the negative effect of temperature on output in countries with hot climates runs through reduced investment, depressed labor productivity, poorer human health, and lower agricultural and industrial output…hot low-income countries suffer the largest costs…economic development, in general, helps to shield countries from temperature shocks, with hot regions in high-income countries on average sustaining less economic damage from rising temperatures than hot regions in low-income countries.” And we hot for so!!

Perhaps Jamaica could launch an open-ended evergreen USD and JMD fund structured like a diaspora bond with a catastrophe clause and low denominations in both currencies to allow smaller / unsophisticated investors locally and internationally to participate (the more investors, the lower the risk of restructure), while collaborating with the rating agencies in determining the least ratings-negative structure? The next best way to ‘wet out house’ as Isaac Anthony from CCRIF SPC outlined, is via parametric insurance coverage, the cost of which declines as the number policyholders / risks insured increases. As Caribbean people know well, when the rain falls, it don’t fall on one man’s house, so the need to wet our own houses but also to take collective action as SIDS is even more crucial now than ever.

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Disclaimer: Marla Dukharan and GNM Group, LLC (herein MD) disclaims any liability for any loss or damages arising from errors, omissions, facts, views, information, and opinions in any of our content, reports, presentations, or publications. Some information contained in this report was prepared by or obtained from sources that MD believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of publication. MD has not independently verified all estimates, facts, and assumptions contained in this report. MD does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, fairness, or timeliness of the content provided herein. Recipients should not regard the information provided in this presentation, or any other content produced by MD as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any recommendations made in the presentation may be unsuitable for certain investors or decision-makers based on their specific investment or business objectives and their financial position. The report has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice, and MD is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. The information provided by MD as part of this report and online content derived thereafter is the property of MD, and cannot be copied, reproduced, modified, republished, repackaged, posted, displayed, transmitted, distributed, redistributed or sold in any way, either in whole or in any part without the prior written permission and consent of MD.

As Hurricane Melissa battered Jamaica and Haiti, I was desperate for some distraction on a flight to Iceland, so I reluctantly turned to inflight entertainment, and was blown away by “The Day Iceland Stood Still”. So many lessons from that documentary, but in that moment as I was mentally grappling with the maddening issue of climate justice, one message resonated really strongly with me. The radical (for 1975 Iceland) Red Stocking women’s movement planned a one-day women’s strike, but had difficulty achieving universal support in a conservative society, until one woman suggested “if you don’t want to strike, what if we women just took a day off?” (including from unpaid care work at home). Bingo! A ‘day off’ was so much more palatable than a ‘strike’, that they achieved a 90% participation rate that spurred reforms and cultural shifts, such that in 1980 – just five years later – Iceland gave the world its first democratically elected female President.

What is the relevance of this feminist triumph to Hurricane Melissa? Well, a few months ago I wrote a paper on Climate Justice’s potential for financing development for SIDS, and some of the feedback suggests this idea might be too ‘radical’ given the political climate and ongoing debate around the exitance of a climate crisis in the first place, secondly, whether these phenomena are natural or man-made, and thirdly, irrespective of the underlying cause(s), whether climate change escapable. But what if, rather than insisting that we are in the midst of a man-made climate crisis, pointing fingers and demanding the altogether too controversial climate-justice, we as SIDS and vulnerable people instead ask for climate compassion vs compensation?

THE CALL FOR CLIMATE JUSTICE HAS RAISED AWARENESS BUT DELIVERED DISAPPOINTINGLY LITTLE ACTION. PERHAPS WE NEED A DIFFERENT APPROACH.

At the end of the day, what are we trying to achieve, as SIDS and developing countries more broadly? If the SDG’s are any indication, #1 No Poverty and #2 Zero Hunger. Well, based on the passage of the Atlantic’s most powerful and damaging hurricane on record, higher levels of homelessness, joblessness, poverty and hunger are immediate consequences for Haiti and Jamaica. Current reports suggest 11,600 people are in shelters, at least 25 people are reported to have died, and 18 people are missing in Haiti. In Jamaica, over 25,000 people are in shelters, and five deaths have been confirmed. Cuba’s effective evacuation of 735,000 seems to have avoided fatalities – immensely commendable in a country already on its knees.

The recent disappointing Compromiso de Sevilla and broken Loss and Damage promises demonstrate that demanding development finance and worse yet climate reparations from the world’s largest polluters has arguably achieved little, and perhaps it’s time to try a different approach. According to the OECD, the USA is the world’s largest contributor by far to Official Development Assistance, at USD63.3 billion in 2024, followed by Germany at USD32.42 billion, UK at USD18 billion, Japan at USD16.77 and France at USD15.43, with Norway, Luxembourg, Sweden and Denmark being the world’s largest contributors / Gross National Income. This, combined with the historically massive outpouring of aid and financial assistance following a natural disaster, suggests that there is no lack of compassion. Perhaps what we need now is not to ask for more aid / development assistance, but a reconfiguration and rebranding of this financial assistance itself.

What if more of this financial assistance came before a disaster hits, to fund insurance mechanisms such as CCRIF and PCRIC, and to invest in not just building resilience (because why would we want to go back to where we were yesterday?) but Transilience^TM (adapting and transforming into something better, based on the adversity we currently face) to reduce the adverse effects of natural disasters? It is clear that the current approach is not working, and as we head into Brazil COP25 on the heels of massive devastation in the Caribbean, and given the current geo-political atmosphere, perhaps we need to come to the table with carrots rather than sticks.

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Disclaimer: Marla Dukharan and GNM Group, LLC (herein MD) disclaims any liability for any loss or damages arising from errors, omissions, facts, views, information, and opinions in any of our content, reports, presentations, or publications. Some information contained in this report was prepared by or obtained from sources that MD believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of publication. MD has not independently verified all estimates, facts, and assumptions contained in this report. MD does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, fairness, or timeliness of the content provided herein. Recipients should not regard the information provided in this presentation, or any other content produced by MD as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any recommendations made in the presentation may be unsuitable for certain investors or decision-makers based on their specific investment or business objectives and their financial position. The report has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice, and MD is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. The information provided by MD as part of this report and online content derived thereafter is the property of MD, and cannot be copied, reproduced, modified, republished, repackaged, posted, displayed, transmitted, distributed, redistributed or sold in any way, either in whole or in any part without the prior written permission and consent of MD.

Would you pay someone to hurt you? Would you pay someone to make your life worse? Would you pay someone to steal your money, especially your precious foreign exchange? I would hope not, but in essence, this is what we, the taxpayers in T&T have been doing for the last 15 years at least.

The Government collects revenue mostly from the taxes we pay on our income, the taxes we pay on everything we use and consume, and taxes (mostly in USD) on oil and gas (which belongs to the citizens of T&T). So in essence we are paying the whole Government including all policymakers, who we elect to manage our country in a way that makes our lives better. This, in essence, is our social contract. The Government is accountable to us for how it spends our money, and for making our lives better. But do we actively hold them to account? And do they actually make our lives better?

Well, as discussed here, we basically paid the Government to raise poverty levels by 50% about a decade ago. The Government spent 30% more from ~TTD46 billion in 2009 to ~TTD62 billion in 2014, while poverty increased by 50% - the proportion of the population living below the poverty line increased from 16.7% of the population in 2009, to about 24% of the population in 2014. We essentially paid the Government to make us poorer! And T&T, like most Caribbean countries, has failed to measure poverty for over 10 years, so we DO NOT KNOW if we are still paying the Government to make us poorer. But we do know that we are paying the Government and elected policymakers to break our own laws.

THE SOCIAL CONTRACT IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO IS BROKEN

Since 2016, as discussed here, the IMF pointed out that our Government is in breach of the international agreements it signed on behalf of the people of T&T regarding FX management. Since 1993, the Government amended the Exchange Control Act to ‘liberalize’ access to and remove controls on FX access. So the FX restrictions we face today, the (de facto) controls that are currently in place, the calls for ‘transparency’ (and controls) on who has access to FX, are all in breach of the prevailing laws and agreements that our Government has signed / enacted on our behalf internationally and domestically. We are paying our Government and elected policymakers to break our laws and agreements, making us all worse off in the process. Surely, this situation could not persist for over a decade unless some powerful person(s) were benefitting. The USD25 billion question is who, and how? And who will solve this problem? My eyes and hopes are on our new Prime Minister, who is saying all the right things this time re transparency and accountability, but who presided over the exacerbation of the FX problem when she was last in this position.

Arguably, if these laws and agreements were not broken, and / or if more appropriate laws were implemented, we would not have these FX problems. This clearly demonstrates that the social contract is broken.

Furthermore, the fact that successive Governments and policymakers are knowingly and willfully breaking our laws and agreements related to FX, begs the questions, how can the Government continue to be in breach of the law without any consequences? Who do we appeal to? What is the point of legislation and the legislative process if the Government can just decide to break the law, and do whatever they want, in plain sight, for over a decade? Can this type of lawlessness on the part of the state, carry over into other areas beyond FX? What is the role of the Board of the Central Bank and the President in all of this? What is the role of the Opposition? What can we, the ordinary citizens of T&T do about this?

On Tuesday 30th September 2025 at 12 noon T&T time, I will be hosting a live webinar and Q&A to discuss the FX situation in our country, and explain how we got here, what the Government is doing wrong, and what can be done now. Register at: marladukharan.com/facts.

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Disclaimer: Marla Dukharan and GNM Group, LLC (herein MD) disclaims any liability for any loss or damages arising from errors, omissions, facts, views, information, and opinions in any of our content, reports, presentations, or publications. Some information contained in this report was prepared by or obtained from sources that MD believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of publication. MD has not independently verified all estimates, facts, and assumptions contained in this report. MD does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, fairness, or timeliness of the content provided herein. Recipients should not regard the information provided in this presentation, or any other content produced by MD as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any recommendations made in the presentation may be unsuitable for certain investors or decision-makers based on their specific investment or business objectives and their financial position. The report has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice, and MD is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. The information provided by MD as part of this report and online content derived thereafter is the property of MD, and cannot be copied, reproduced, modified, republished, repackaged, posted, displayed, transmitted, distributed, redistributed or sold in any way, either in whole or in any part without the prior written permission and consent of MD.

On July 23rd, the world’s highest court - the International Court of Justice (ICJ) - delivered a landmark Opinion on the Obligation of States regarding the climate crisis, which was spearheaded by Vanuatu, the most at-risk country to natural disasters. As outlined in this recent piece, this ICJ Opinion was highly anticipated and is crucial to the development policy trajectory of the Global South.

Key elements of the ICJ’s (non-binding but not inconsequential) Opinion are:

1. All states have obligations under international human rights law to respect and ensure the effective enjoyment of human rights by taking necessary measures to protect the climate system and other parts of the environment.

2. All states have a duty to prevent significant harm to the environment by acting with due diligence and to use all means at their disposal to prevent activities carried out within their jurisdiction or control from causing significant harm to the climate system and other parts of the environment, in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, and to co-operate with each other in good faith to this end.

3. 198 States have an obligation to adopt measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, to adapt to climate change, and to co-operate with each other to achieve the underlying objective of the UN Climate Change Convention (preventing “dangerous” human interference with the climate system).

4. Paris Agreement parties (the 198 above excluding Iran, Libya, and Yemen) have an obligation to act with due diligence in taking measures in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities capable of making an adequate contribution to achieving the temperature goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. These states have obligations of adaptation and co-operation, including through technology and financial transfers, which must be performed in good faith.

5. Certain states - those usually deemed high income / Global North - have additional obligations to take the lead in combating climate change by limiting their greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing their greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs.

THE ICJ ESTABLISHES CLIMATE OBLIGATIONS AND CONSEQUENCES FOR INACTION OR HARMFUL ACTION

The ICJ further opined that a breach by a State of any obligations identified above: 1) constitutes an internationally wrongful act, 2) that the state is under a continuing duty to perform the obligation breached, 3) that the legal consequences resulting from the commission of an internationally wrongful act may include; a) cessation of the wrongful actions or omissions, if they are continuing; b) providing assurances and guarantees of non-repetition of wrongful actions or omissions, if circumstances so require; and c) full reparation to injured States in the form of restitution, compensation, and satisfaction. Importantly, the ICJ further noted that;

1. While climate change is caused by cumulative greenhouse gas emissions, it is scientifically possible to determine each State’s total contribution to global emissions, taking into account both historical and current emissions.

2. Each injured State may separately invoke the responsibility of every State which has committed an internationally wrongful act resulting in damage to the climate system and other parts of the environment.

3. The fact that the damage may be the result of concurrent causes is not sufficient to exempt a State from any obligation to make reparations.

Now, what does this all mean? Well, for the first time ever, we have an opinion delivered by the world’s highest court that acknowledges the fact that we can quantify the historical and current carbon emissions by State, so we can therefore quantify the extent of climate-driven damage by State, and the resulting obligation to make reparation.

This is especially powerful in the context of developing countries, and SIDS in particular, who are at once struggling with already unsustainable debt burdens and the rising cost of ‘development’, in the face of planetary boundaries and climate obligations, alongside mounting climate risks. In my view therefore, this ICJ opinion opens the door for affected states to actively pursue funding for development and climate adaptation from their (former) colonizers, who are historically the world’s worst polluters.

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Disclaimer: Marla Dukharan and GNM Group, LLC (herein MD) disclaims any liability for any loss or damages arising from errors, omissions, facts, views, information, and opinions in any of our content, reports, presentations, or publications. Some information contained in this report was prepared by or obtained from sources that MD believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of publication. MD has not independently verified all estimates, facts, and assumptions contained in this report. MD does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, fairness, or timeliness of the content provided herein. Recipients should not regard the information provided in this presentation, or any other content produced by MD as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any recommendations made in the presentation may be unsuitable for certain investors or decision-makers based on their specific investment or business objectives and their financial position. The report has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice, and MD is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. The information provided by MD as part of this report and online content derived thereafter is the property of MD, and cannot be copied, reproduced, modified, republished, repackaged, posted, displayed, transmitted, distributed, redistributed or sold in any way, either in whole or in any part without the prior written permission and consent of MD.

In the Caribbean we have generally moved beyond using GDP to measure development, to focus more on the Human Development Index (HDI). But the HDI looks at GDP per capita which we know is possibly the world’s most imperfect measure of anything. The HDI also looks at life expectancy at birth, emphasizing longevity but accidentally contributing to an overpopulated planet, while not accounting for our quality of life, especially the deterioration in health in those years we have succeeded in adding! The HDI also looks at the number of years of schooling, with no reference to the quality of our education outcomes, nor how relevant our education is. The fact that we are not measuring these outcomes in the first place, means we may be focusing on ‘solving’ the wrong things. The fact that the majority of our tertiary educated graduates leave the Caribbean and are able to succeed elsewhere, tells us that while we are hitting some of the right targets, we are clearly missing many others.

By not consistently measuring poverty or inequality in the Caribbean, we don’t know whether our current socio-economic systems and policies are in fact making us poorer. For example, the largely regressive taxation systems in the Caribbean which tax individuals / wages (and food!) more than profits, is pro-poverty and pro-inequality (which also causes poverty). And by looking northwards, over-emphasizing consumption and celebrating material accumulation, creating a perpetual collective rat race of earning / borrowing / finding enough foreign currency to import goods and services, are we growing our economies, improving our lives, planting the right seeds to feed future West Indians, or are we (still) creating (more) wealth for our (former) colonizers? This Babylon system (as Bob Marley called it), where we are ‘educated’ to join a workforce, get a job, take a 30 year mortgage and car loan, live on debt, have children and teach them to do the same, give them everything we didn’t have materially, so they / we have to work and borrow to sustain these habits and lifestyles...is a vicious cycle we are trapped in. This system limits our freedoms as Caribbean people, and is the antithesis of development as per Amartya Sen’s definition of Development as Freedom.

In my Trinidad & Tobago, we have seen our freedoms relentlessly eroded during this century, but we are not the only country in the Caribbean to have regressed or even failed by this measure of development. But I was blessed to live in freedom with the people of Vanuatu last month, learning quite by accident just how evidently misguided the Caribbean’s development journey has been.

“THE WORLD HAS MUCH TO LEARN FROM INDIGENOUS PEOPLES’ WISDOM”

Vanuatu has a GDP/capita resembling Haiti’s, and is the world’s most at-risk country for natural disasters and extreme weather. And despite disaster upon disaster, Vanuatu was again ranked as the Happiest Country in 2024 by the Happy Planet Index, which reports that while no country has achieved sustainable wellbeing, Vanuatu comes closest with life expectancy of 70.4 years and a self-reported wellbeing score of 7.1/10, all with a low carbon footprint. In Vanuatu, people largely eat what they grow and grow what they eat, they own the ancestral land on which they have lived and farmed for thousands of years, with a strong sense of community providing unrivalled support and social protections. What we think of as ‘development’ in the ‘western’ sense is deeply flawed and ultimately dystopian based on the pressures on the individual and our planet, and we have moved so far west that we are ending up East. Which is exactly where Vanuatu is, and should choose to stay, confidently and securely.

The global boom in digital nomads relocating to more sustainable and rural community-based lifestyles, the popularity of silent retreats and digital detoxes, and the explosion in the wellness industry and so-called organic food, all of which is inherent in the indigenous cultures of Vanuatu and elsewhere, demonstrate our yearning to return to where we began as a species.

Recently the UN Secretary General opened the Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues stating: “The world has much to learn from Indigenous Peoples' wisdom, insights and approaches.” How do we get back to a place where we can re-learn and re-embrace some of the more sustainable and community-based lifestyles and socio-economic development practices of our ancestors, and thereby create more socio-economic freedoms for ourselves and the future generations of Caribbean people?

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Disclaimer: Marla Dukharan and GNM Group, LLC (herein MD) disclaims any liability for any loss or damages arising from errors, omissions, facts, views, information, and opinions in any of our content, reports, presentations, or publications. Some information contained in this report was prepared by or obtained from sources that MD believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of publication. MD has not independently verified all estimates, facts, and assumptions contained in this report. MD does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, fairness, or timeliness of the content provided herein. Recipients should not regard the information provided in this presentation, or any other content produced by MD as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any recommendations made in the presentation may be unsuitable for certain investors or decision-makers based on their specific investment or business objectives and their financial position. The report has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice, and MD is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. The information provided by MD as part of this report and online content derived thereafter is the property of MD, and cannot be copied, reproduced, modified, republished, repackaged, posted, displayed, transmitted, distributed, redistributed or sold in any way, either in whole or in any part without the prior written permission and consent of MD.

In a world where global institutions are crumbling as we witness the consistent disintegration of the post-war international order, global cooperation is at its lowest in decades, and is expected to grind even lower as national or even individual agendas and interests prevail. Post-pandemic in particular, traditional leaders and global institutions have been failing to resolve disputes or avoid disasters, demonstrating that reform of global institutions and power dynamics, if not creative destruction, is necessary.

More than 70 countries held elections last year with more than 1.7 billion people voting — quite possibly the most ever — at a global average voter turnout of 61%. This year will be the biggest election year ever for the Caribbean, with Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago, Suriname, Guyana, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Anguilla, Belize, Bermuda, Curaçao, the Turks and Caicos Islands (completed), and the Cayman Islands all holding general elections this year. Cost of living will feature heavily in election campaigns, and will drive higher levels of poverty and hardship, and greater outward migration, possibly compounding major global demographic shifts.

This shift in population domination in the global south has already brought significant change to global power dynamics, including the strengthening of the BRICS institution, which now includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE. At their Oct 2024 summit in Russia, BRICS members introduced a cross-border interbank payment and settlement system called BRICS Pay as an alternative to the SWIFT system, further eroding the dominance of the USD — which used to account for about 80% of global reserves half a century ago, but is now about 60%. Thirteen nations have been added as partner countries of BRICS: Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam. India will continue to be the most populous country basically forever. Roughly 80% of the population of India identifies as Hindu, but the dominant religion of the other most populous countries — Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, 50% of Nigeria, One-third of Tanzania and 31% of Ethiopia, is Islam.

President Trump’s trade, or anti-trade policies, tariffs etc. are expected to drive US inflation higher this year, and this supply side inflation is unlikely to respond to any hikes in the Fed Funds rate, but hike they will in the face of inflation, and the cost of living for the average American will again take flight and be imported by Caribbean people. Already this region has faced the highest inflation globally for the past 10 years, and the social, economic and demographic implications of this inflation are not positive.

WHY AREN’T MORE CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES JOINING BRICS AND SUPPORTING THE UN TAX CONVENTION?

One in 4 persons globally live in a country whose population has already peaked, such as China, Germany, Japan, and Russia. Caribbean countries whose populations have already peaked include Cuba, Curaçao, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Jamaica, Martinique, Montserrat, Puerto Rico, St. Kitts and Nevis, Saint Martin, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Bermuda, and the US Virgin Islands. The rest of the Caribbean will see its population peak in the next 30 years, in 2054, except for: The Dominican Republic, French Guiana, Guyana, Haiti, Suriname, and the Cayman Islands. In other words, these 6 countries are the only Caribbean countries expected to see their population continue to grow beyond 2054. These demographic shifts will continue to deeply affect our societies.

The IMF considers a global growth rate at or below 3% a global recession, and expects 3.3% for 2025 and 2026, consistent with the World Bank, the UN, etc. The global economy will continue limping precariously along the edge of the recession precipice for some time, and while we are NOT in a global recession or a stagnation, we are in that maddening and boring place where meaningful improvement is unlikely in the foreseeable future. Arguably, global and local growth forecasts matter little now. It’s everything else that’s happening, that we need to either mitigate or take advantage of. And it’s the creation of a new global world order that Caribbean people must actively participate in and support, including BRICS and the UN Tax Convention. Otherwise, we will end up being benign bystanders to the creation or destruction of our own future.

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Disclaimer: Marla Dukharan and GNM Group, LLC (herein MD) disclaims any liability for any loss or damages arising from errors, omissions, facts, views, information, and opinions in any of our content, reports, presentations, or publications. Some information contained in this report was prepared by or obtained from sources that MD believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of publication. MD has not independently verified all estimates, facts, and assumptions contained in this report. MD does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, fairness, or timeliness of the content provided herein. Recipients should not regard the information provided in this presentation, or any other content produced by MD as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any recommendations made in the presentation may be unsuitable for certain investors or decision-makers based on their specific investment or business objectives and their financial position. The report has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice, and MD is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. The information provided by MD as part of this report and online content derived thereafter is the property of MD, and cannot be copied, reproduced, modified, republished, repackaged, posted, displayed, transmitted, distributed, redistributed or sold in any way, either in whole or in any part without the prior written permission and consent of MD.

Conducting an Economic Impact Study (EIS) on any proposed intervention gives decisionmakers the data (and identifies gaps in said data / information) necessary to objectively make informed decisions, and to have greater desired impact. Of all the EISs my team and I have conducted, this particular one was especially close to our hearts, and one we are grateful to have had the honour of doing, because Seven Mile Beach (SMB) with its warm crystal waters and stunning sunsets is truly a Caribbean treasure. Through rigorous data collection and analysis, we assessed the economic contribution of SMB to the Cayman Islands economy. This includes measuring SMB’s direct and indirect economic benefits such as tourism revenue, job creation, and fiscal revenue. Additionally, we looked at the social value of SMB, considering its importance to the local community. This involved evaluating the recreational, cultural, and aesthetic benefits that SMB provides, as well the preservation of coastal communities, protection of infrastructure, and enhancement of livelihoods, particularly considering the vulnerability of the Cayman Islands population to rising sea levels. Furthermore, we compared the long-term impacts of doing nothing, versus conducting beach renourishment.

The Cayman Islands are low-lying, and the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) found in 2010 that coastal flooding / storm surge accounted for about 45% of total damage potential to Cayman. Beach renourishment was found by CCRIF to have net economic benefits, with a cost / benefit ratio of around 0.3 and significant capacity for averting losses. Damage driven partly by coastal flooding / storm surge is exacerbated by construction activity and the absence of natural sand nourishment cycles on SMB.

| WITHOUT AN ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY, YOU COULD MAKE THINGS WORSE

We estimate that the total gross economic impact of SMB on the Cayman Islands economy approaches USD1 billion annually. Properties on SMB are valued at around USD6 billion - roughly USD4.9 billion on the North and USD1.2 billion on the South (we use 19.32311 latitude, near Royal Palms, as the breakpoint to separate North versus South SMB). The current estimate of the initial cost of beach renourishment is USD25.2 based on estimates from the Government's budget, and USD6 million every five years based on Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI) and Dart's calculations. These beach renourishment costs are small relative to the overall property values on SMB (even on the South, taken in isolation), and the potential for losses in the absence of beach renourishment.

Total revenue generated by Short Term Rentals (STRs) in South SMB surpassed that of North SMB prior to 2021, however with a proliferation of STRs on North SMB, there was a notable shift in the pattern. In 2023, based on 132 more properties than South SMB, North SMB generated 29% more revenue, with an average daily room rate (ADR) 22% higher than South SMB. Our modelling shows that post-2019, STRs located in South SMB lost around USD13,000 yearly in rental income compared to North SMB due to beach erosion.

From an economic standpoint, we concur with the conclusions of CCRIF, the Government of the Cayman Islands Department of Environment (DoE), and the DHI study, that beach renourishment is necessary to maintain the economic impact of the tourism sector and SMB more specifically. The cost of beach renourishment (as currently estimated) pales in comparison to the potential costs and losses associated with a do-nothing scenario. We therefore recommend that appropriate beach renourishment be conducted at SMB with urgency. It is important to note that we did not identify all the possible causes of beach erosion (whatever the cause, the economic impact was our focus), nor did we consider other possible solutions apart from those suggested by CCRIF, the DoE and DHI, as we are unaware of other studies specific to SMB. The experts in the field should be the ones to determine the best solution(s) for SMB, on a cost-benefit analysis basis, whether beach renourishment and / or managed retreat, or otherwise. Bottom line - the longer we wait, the higher the losses / costs, and the lower the likelihood of success. We urge the authorities and relevant stakeholders to demonstrate decisiveness and leadership and take appropriate action on an urgent basis. The clock is ticking.

Disclaimer: Marla Dukharan and GNM Group, LLC (herein MD) disclaims any liability for any loss or damages arising from errors, omissions, facts, views, information, and opinions in any of our content, reports, presentations, or publications. Some information contained in this report was prepared by or obtained from sources that MD believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of publication. MD has not independently verified all estimates, facts, and assumptions contained in this report. MD does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, fairness, or timeliness of the content provided herein. Recipients should not regard the information provided in this presentation, or any other content produced by MD as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any recommendations made in the presentation may be unsuitable for certain investors or decision-makers based on their specific investment or business objectives and their financial position. The report has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice, and MD is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. The information provided by MD as part of this report and online content derived thereafter is the property of MD, and cannot be copied, reproduced, modified, republished, repackaged, posted, displayed, transmitted, distributed, redistributed or sold in any way, either in whole or in any part without the prior written permission and consent of MD.

It was a distinct honour to deliver the 4^th DOSAM at UWI Cave Hill campus earlier this month, on a topic that former Barbados Prime Minister Owen Arthur fought long and hard for – Tax Justice. He took on this challenge not just for Barbados, but for the Caribbean more broadly. The video of the lecture is here, the script is here, and the full study on which the lecture was based is here.

Currently, only 16/36 or just 44% of Caribbean territories are independent states, meaning that the Caribbean is still mostly, in terms of number of territories, a colonized region. Population size by territory varies widely in the Caribbean - from Saba with about 2,000 persons, to Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic, each with about 11-12 million persons. By population therefore, the Caribbean is more independent than colonized, with over 33 million having had their independence for over a century.

The history of colonization and extraction is fundamental to the issue of Tax Justice in, and for the Caribbean, as well as other (former) colonies. Colonization, slavery, and sugar production are empirically demonstrated to have underpinned Europe’s industrialization and wealth accumulation. This wealth was and still is so important to Europe that the process of decolonization and independence globally, gave birth to the tax frameworks that exist today, in two important ways:

1. It is a well-documented fact that colonizers created ‘tax havens’ in the Caribbean and elsewhere, to hide their sugar and slavery wealth during the independence movement.

2. The global tax framework is dominated by a powerful network of bilateral double tax treaties between ‘source’ countries in the Global South and ‘resident’ countries in the Global North. And it is this more than 100 years old, 3,000-strong bilateral double tax treaty network that allows the legal avoidance of taxes, which is at the heart of the tax loss problem – more so than the ‘tax havens’ in the Caribbean and the Global South more broadly. 

NO RIGHT-MINDED, INDEPENDENT THINKER FROM THE GLOBAL SOUTH COULD SUPPORT THE OECD’S GMT

According to the Tax Justice Network (TJN) OECD member states are responsible for 78% or USD374 billion in global tax losses annually, and the OECD itself “failed to detect and prevent its own members’ corporate tax abuse…and in some cases, pushed OECD member countries to rollback their tax transparency.” The TJN further reported that “secrecy jurisdictions – which are countries that provide opportunities for non-residents to hide their identity and their wealth from the rule of law – are not led by small, palm-fringed islands, but by major economies.” But based on the Global North’s powerful propaganda machinery, “Caribbean Island” has become synonymous with ‘tax haven’, and ‘tax haven’ has come to be associated with palm trees and white sand in a powerful and pervasive way; even the algorithms have adopted these false narratives, such that online search results for ‘Tax Haven’ is dominated by tropical island imagery. All while the USA and Switzerland are the world’s most prolific tax secrecy jurisdictions.

There will be no tax justice unless ALL countries are assessed objectively and recognized universally, for their true harmful tax haven status. No exceptions, not even the Vatican. Further, there will be no tax justice even if those tax havens are eliminated globally, unless we renegotiate unfair double tax treaties, which prescribe how taxing rights are divided, and allow the legal avoidance of taxes. And finally, the UN Tax convention presents the only opportunity for inclusive dialogue towards global tax justice.

Demanding reparations in the absence of the above is misguided at best. The OECD exists to pursue the interests of its members (largely the USA, UK, and EU), even at the expense of others. In its over 60-year existence, the OECD “has still never allowed a majority-Black member country to join, and continues to exploit anti-Black racism to preserve its power”. But the OECD has somehow managed to bully the whole world apart from Kenya, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka into signing the Global Minimum Tax (GMT) that up to today the US can’t even legislate! Caribbean leaders who (implicitly) support the OECD’s Pillars and GMT and/or those who do not support the UN Tax Convention should be examined for their courage and leadership in the pursuit of decolonization, their expertise in tax justice matters, their loyalty to country, and for possible “imperfect negotiation strategies.”

Disclaimer: Marla Dukharan and GNM Group, LLC (herein MD) disclaims any liability for any loss or damages arising from errors, omissions, facts, views, information, and opinions in any of our content, reports, presentations, or publications. Some information contained in this report was prepared by or obtained from sources that MD believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of publication. MD has not independently verified all estimates, facts, and assumptions contained in this report. MD does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, fairness, or timeliness of the content provided herein. Recipients should not regard the information provided in this presentation, or any other content produced by MD as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any recommendations made in the presentation may be unsuitable for certain investors or decision-makers based on their specific investment or business objectives and their financial position. The report has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice, and MD is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. The information provided by MD as part of this report and online content derived thereafter is the property of MD, and cannot be copied, reproduced, modified, republished, repackaged, posted, displayed, transmitted, distributed, redistributed or sold in any way, either in whole or in any part without the prior written permission and consent of MD.

How does a Caribbean island of less than 3 million, go from having one of the highest levels of debt in the world, balance of payments crises, violence rivalling civil war levels, mass exodus, and two decades averaging near-zero growth, to steadily declining crime and homicide rates, its lowest unemployment and poverty rates in history, over 6 months of import cover, steady positive growth, and its best overall socio-economic stability and performance ever? And how does any country achieve this impressive turnaround with unprecedented speed? Just ask Jamaica!

Originally called Xaymaka – the land of wood and water - by the Arawaks, on a recent (too brief!) visit to Kingston, Jamaica felt more like the land of progress and hope - it’s palpable! “The 1970s was one of the most tumultuous eras of Jamaican history...thrown into a period of intense class struggle not experienced since the Great Depression and the 1938 general strike. Ultimately, a bloody campaign of violence driven by US imperialism defeated the struggle for socialism in Jamaica”, according to a pro-Marxist outlet - an ideology that Jamaica experimented with in the 1970s. From the 1980s to 2011, Jamaica suffered massive brain drain (which created a large and thriving diaspora), driven by social, political, and economic instability. With debt over 140% of GDP in 2009, Jamaica entered into several failed IMF programs but ultimately defaulted and engaged in domestic debt restructures in 2010 and 2012. The IMF program finally stuck in 2012, beginning what was arguably the most significant socio-economic transformation in the Caribbean of this century. And possibly the fastest ever – we expect no less from Jamaica!

JAMAICA HAS MADE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE TRANSFORMATION OF THIS CENTURY

The IMF and the private sector - via the Economic Programme Oversight Committee (EPOC) and the Economic Growth Council (EGC) - implemented sweeping reforms which have yielded Jamaica’s lowest unemployment level, lowest poverty level, and longest period of sustained positive growth, ever. Importantly, the state used its power over the last 12 years or so, to restructure its economy and empower its people, fostering greater self-sufficiency and independence, by creating an environment and structures for Jamaicans to secure and create jobs via greater domestic entrepreneurial activity, and also to hold the Government accountable for achieving its mandate.

Crucial to Jamaica’s transformation were fundamental macroeconomic and institutional reforms, such as (in no particular order) a floor (as opposed to the usual ceiling) on social spending imposed by the IMF and better targeting of that spending; reforms to support a thriving entrepreneurship / MSME sector such that Jamaica had the world’s best performing stock market in 2015, 2018, and 2019; a sweeping tax reform agenda; debt restructure exercises which helped to establish fiscal sustainability; foreign exchange reforms which allow JMD fluctuations in both directions to avoid JMD under / overvaluation and speculative demand for USD; fiscal reforms including a fiscal responsibility framework to limit deficit and debt levels, governed by an independent Fiscal Commission; the establishment of an independent EPOC which frequently publicly holds the Government to account for achieving its policy and macroeconomic management agenda; and reforms to support transparency and AML/CFT compliance.

The effect of reforms to existing institutions and the establishment of new ones as needed, cannot be overstated. While significant challenges remain, particularly as it relates to crime and violence, healthcare, education, drug use and trafficking, gang activity, white collar crime, etc. Jamaica has made surprising progress and is heading in the right direction – you can see and feel it when you walk around Kingston. The economy is now more diversified and resilient, more stable and productive, and more ‘independent’ as it relates to food and fuel security, and its people are more empowered and less dependent on the state - all of which is demonstrated by improved social outcomes, and consistent credit ratings upgrades, for example. The key takeaway here is that accountability drives results. Jamaica gives the wider Caribbean hope that it is possible to overcome longstanding structural constraints through targeted institutional reforms and fiscal discipline in particular, underpinned by broad-based support for a powerful implementation mechanism of publicly and regularly holding the Government to account for achieving its mandate.

Disclaimer: Marla Dukharan and GNM Group, LLC (herein MD) disclaims any liability for any loss or damages arising from errors, omissions, facts, views, information, and opinions in any of our content, reports, presentations, or publications. Some information contained in this report was prepared by or obtained from sources that MD believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of publication. MD has not independently verified all estimates, facts, and assumptions contained in this report. MD does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, fairness, or timeliness of the content provided herein. Recipients should not regard the information provided in this presentation, or any other content produced by MD as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any recommendations made in the presentation may be unsuitable for certain investors or decision-makers based on their specific investment or business objectives and their financial position. The report has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice, and MD is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. The information provided by MD as part of this report and online content derived thereafter is the property of MD, and cannot be copied, reproduced, modified, republished, repackaged, posted, displayed, transmitted, distributed, redistributed or sold in any way, either in whole or in any part without the prior written permission and consent of MD.

When next you hear the authorities say Trinbagonians demand too much foreign exchange, we import too much ‘luxury’ items, we shop online too much, we use foreign credit cards too much, we travel too much, and we get blamed for all the foreign exchange problems in T&T, stop and think about this – for the past 12 years (2011-2023), over USD25 billion has gone missing from our country. On average, OVER TWO BILLION US DOLLARS each year just disappears, and nobody has been able to account for it, ever. But have you ever seen this in the news?

Using the IMF’s global database with data for 2011-22, we see that the Errors and Omissions (E&O) item (which is supposed to be an insignificant balancing item due mainly to statistical errors) on the balance of payments account (which accounts for all the cross-border transactions of a nation, such as international trade, foreign (direct) investment, remittances, etc.) for T&T shows a net outflow of USD23 billion that we can’t account for. This is about 77% the size of our economy (2022, IMF) and over USD16,000 per person. On a per capita basis, we are the world’s largest losers of foreign currency. Only 20 countries globally have lost more in absolute USD than we have from 2011-22, and only 3 countries – Djibouti, Liberia and the Marshall Islands – have lost more relative to GDP.

T&T’s national debt level is lower than 77% of GDP, so we lose more USD than our Government has borrowed. If you look at the FX reserves charts later in this report you will see that T&T is the only country where reserves consistently trend downwards, declining by 48% from a USD11.5 billion peak in 2014 to USD5.98 billion in June 2024. In the absence of Government borrowing and withdrawals from the HSF, T&T’s FX reserves would be only USD157 million in March 2024, which is roughly one week of import cover. But what explains E&O hemorrhaging?

WE LOSE THE MOST USD PER CAPITA IN THE WORLD VIA ERRORS & OMISSIONS

The weaker the statistical infrastructure, the less accurate the data will be, so this (not surprising given our overall weak and declining institutions) is one likely explanation. But if statistical weakness was the biggest explanatory factor, one would expect the E&O item to be a fairly random number – positives and negatives, large and small. But T&T’s E&O item has been consistently negative every year since 2011 (the earliest data available), meaning we have an undocumented net outflow of USD each year that we can’t account for. Furthermore, apart from 2012 and then 2020-21 (COVID?) the E&O item has consistently exceeded USD1 billon each year, the highest being USD4.8 billion in 2013. And this pattern in the data suggests that something else, apart from statistical weakness, is at play.

Recall that the TTD is overvalued vs the black market FX rate which ranges from TTD7.50-10.00/USD, and that by maintaining the exchange rate at roughly TTD6.76/USD, the Government is effectively subsidizing the sale of USD and therefore artificially creating a level of (speculative) demand for USD that would otherwise not exist at say TTD10.00/USD. Furthermore, the unavailability of USD creates a level of precautionary demand for USD that does not exist elsewhere in the Caribbean, for example. All of this drives a lack of confidence in the TTD and a preference for USD, and capital flight. The Government has created a massive incentive for us to find, earn, buy, hold and take overseas as much USD as we can. And this perverse incentive, combined with our weak institutions and poor crime detection is flammable, bleeding into the (regional, gang-related) crime associated with the northward movement of narcotics, and the safe return (and laundering) of USD back to the producers primarily in Latin America.

The best way for USD to leave our country undocumented is via cash and portable valuable goods such as jewelry. But I am certain that it is purely coincidental that our E&O losses took off just when the previous Government introduced direct flights to Panama and London (reputed to be money laundering hotspots), and that our E&O losses were lowest during COVID when borders were closed. As with traffic jams and crime, we lose immeasurable precious time, effort, talent and perhaps even lives, navigating our nation’s USD shortage created not by any error or omission, but by successive Governments’ deliberate and harmful policy choices.

Disclaimer: Marla Dukharan and GNM Group, LLC (herein MD) disclaims any liability for any loss or damages arising from errors, omissions, facts, views, information, and opinions in any of our content, reports, presentations, or publications. Some information contained in this report was prepared by or obtained from sources that MD believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of publication. MD has not independently verified all estimates, facts, and assumptions contained in this report. MD does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, fairness, or timeliness of the content provided herein. Recipients should not regard the information provided in this presentation, or any other content produced by MD as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any recommendations made in the presentation may be unsuitable for certain investors or decision-makers based on their specific investment or business objectives and their financial position. The report has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice, and MD is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. The information provided by MD as part of this report and online content derived thereafter is the property of MD, and cannot be copied, reproduced, modified, republished, repackaged, posted, displayed, transmitted, distributed, redistributed or sold in any way, either in whole or in any part without the prior written permission and consent of MD.

Caribbean people have been reveling lately to the most-loved sound of (uncle) David Rudder’s familiar call to “Rally ‘Round the West Indies”. But perhaps even more relevant today is Rudder’s less-celebrated chant “Haiti I’m sorry…we misunderstood you.” Trinidadian historian C.L.R. James said of French sentiment towards ‘The Black Jacobins’, "Rivers of blood were to flow before they understood.”  

With a transitional government in place amid unprecedented international support in an n^th attempt to stanch Haiti’s bleeding, understanding the cause of Haiti’s problems, who is liable and to what extent, are fundamental elements of the solution. France’s exceptionally acute and brutal >200-year tenure of extraction-cum-extortion from Haiti is undisputed. “The initial 150 million francs was equal to the annual revenue of Haiti before independence, or 15% of France’s annual budget. By the late 19th century, 80% of Haiti’s wealth was devoted to serving external debts, first to France and then to financial institutions in Germany — and, most notably, the United States” as reported by the Jacobin. From the outset, any attempt to measure the value of human life and suffering is an insult, and no measure of what France owes Haiti could ever satisfy everyone, but we have to start somewhere.  

The New York Times calculated that France owes Haiti USD21 billion, French economist Thomas Piketty estimated USD28 billion, while Professor Jemima Pierre said “It’s USD21 billion plus 200 years of interest that France has enjoyed…more like USD150 billion, USD200 billion or more.” The methodology used for these estimates is unclear, but appear to be some derivation of the 112 million francs that France actually extorted from Haiti from 1825 to 1947. This arguably narrow definition of France’s damage and thus debt to the people of Haiti omits, as it is entirely reasonable to suggest, that absent 200 years of French oppression, the people of Haiti could have achieved at least the level of economic progress of other (French) Caribbean territories. So why not start there?  

HAITI COULD REASONABLY HAVE ACHIEVED AT LEAST WHAT THE REST OF THE (FRENCH) CARIBBEAN DID 

An oversimplification perhaps but hear me out – if Haiti could have achieved a similar economic outcome to the Dominican Republic, then France would now have to grow Haiti’s GDP by USD10K per capita or USD120 billion. Compared to Jamaica, France would have to grow Haiti’s GDP by USD5,600 per capita or USD67.3 billion. Surely somewhere between these two is a reasonable place for Haiti. But what if, instead of declaring its independence in 1804, Haiti remained a Caribbean colony of France? Haiti would then have a GDP per capita of France’s (and why shouldn’t it, as do France’s Caribbean colonies?) at roughly USD41K instead of USD1,750. Haiti’s GDP of roughly USD20 billion plus France’s USD2.8 trillion would then yield a GDP per capita for France (given Haiti’s population of 12 million and France’s of 68 million) of roughly USD35,250 – roughly USD33,500 more per capita or USD402 billion in total for Haiti.  

Hypothetically handing over USD402 billion will not raise Haiti’s GDP to USD35K per capita. Haiti’s fiscal multipliers are unknown, but given that no Caribbean country has a fiscal multiplier even close to 1, we can be sure France would have to give much more than USD402 billion to Haiti, to raise its GDP by that amount. We can also be sure that hypothetically handing over USD402 billion would accomplish little for the people of Haiti given the level of instability and the culture of extraction evident with past aid attempts. As discussed on Radio Jamaica recently, the extractive institutions created during colonization absent meaningful reform post-independence, gave way to further extraction at the hands of the elite (descendants of colonizers) across the Caribbean, which persists today. Haiti is a most extreme case of this phenomenon in our region, thus necessitating an equally extreme intervention of institutional and governance DNA editing, if there is any hope of breaking the cycle of extraction and trauma. This will cost plenty. 

We can debate what France reasonably owes Haiti and must pay towards achieving institutional and ultimately, nation-building and socio-economic stability for the people Haiti who deserve no less. This is probably the easier part of the solution. The more difficult task would be actually holding a colonizer to account, and making France repay Haiti, when it seems that France is more determined to continue to pursue a neo-colonial agenda, punishing its former colonies, and those who dare to want their freedom. 

Disclaimer: Marla Dukharan and GNM Group, LLC (herein MD) disclaims any liability for any loss or damages arising from errors, omissions, facts, views, information, and opinions in any of our content, reports, presentations, or publications. Some information contained in this report was prepared by or obtained from sources that MD believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of publication. MD has not independently verified all estimates, facts, and assumptions contained in this report. MD does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, fairness, or timeliness of the content provided herein. Recipients should not regard the information provided in this presentation, or any other content produced by MD as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any recommendations made in the presentation may be unsuitable for certain investors or decision-makers based on their specific investment or business objectives and their financial position. The report has been prepared solely for informational purposes. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice, and MD is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. The information provided by MD as part of this report and online content derived thereafter is the property of MD, and cannot be copied, reproduced, modified, republished, repackaged, posted, displayed, transmitted, distributed, redistributed or sold in any way, either in whole or in any part without the prior written permission and consent of MD.

I remember hearing this story again and again in Cayman – that historically, most of the men went to sea and the women looked after everything at home. Even today, Cayman has a female Governor, Premier and Minister of Finance, and Chief Justice. No wonder Cayman is the best run country in the Caribbean! 🤭 (I mean, there’s a lot to unpack here but, another time!) Not that Cayman doesn’t have its challenges, but on a regional scale (and I dare say even internationally) it is rare to find such a small, highly open economy, with such low debt, high living standard, and thriving private sector based on an ease of doing business and a secure environment. And apart from the historically outsized role that women have played in Cayman’s success, so has its acute openness.

In the Caribbean, we are all highly open economies; most of what we consume comes from abroad, and most of what we sell (to earn the money to import and consume) is sold abroad / to foreigners. Most of the investment in our economies has historically come from overseas. We rely on the outside world more than the domestic, but in Cayman’s case, that openness manifests in a willingness to engage with the outside world, not just in terms of trade in goods and services, but in terms of people and their expertise, ideas and opportunities. The United Nations of the Cayman Islands, where over 100 nationalities don’t just co-exist but thrive, is highly unique and is a real treasure, especially given today’s geopolitical realities.

I think Cayman’s acute openness is its superpower, but also its vulnerability – because the external forces of the climate crisis and the ever-changing and unfair application of regulations, are heightening the risks to Cayman’s prosperity. Economic diversification is one mechanism to mitigate some of these risks, and Cayman’s existing openness presents a meaningful path to diversification. Like those Caymanian men who went out to sea to bring back a bounty for their families and communities, Cayman Enterprise City (CEC) deliberately curates globally progressive knowledge-based industries to bring to Cayman’s shores, actively future-proofing the economy and positioning Caymanians for the next wave of socio-economic progress.

| CAYMAN’S ACUTE OPENNESS IS A VULNERABILITY, BUT ALSO ITS SUPERPOWER

My team and I have assessed CEC’s socio-economic impact again this year, and our findings confirm that for the 12 years since inception, CEC has had a socio-economic impact approaching USD1 billion. To put this into context, this is almost the same as (92%) the value of total Work Permit fees collected by Government in the 12 years to 2022! The number of local vendors doing business with CEC has grown from 108 in 2020 to 187 in 2023 - a 73% increase in 3 years. Furthermore, CEC member companies provide high-value employment with wages exceeding those of Cayman’s labour force on average. Last year alone, Caymanians employed by CEC member companies increased by 10% y/y, while the number of Caymanians/permanent residents employed at the CEC Special Economic Zone jumped 88% (since they began tracking in 2020) to 128 in 2023.

According to the Future of Jobs Report 2023, “All but 2 technologies are expected to be net job creators in the next 5 years” and Cayman’s only “Rising Star” sector is ICT. Furthermore, the sectors with the highest social returns in Cayman are Real Estate, Financial Services, Utilities, and ICT. Fully 77% of Caymanian-held jobs at CEC member companies are in sectors with high social returns and increasing global demand. Given that CEC’s members are predominantly ICT-focused, CEC is mitigating Cayman’s socio-economic vulnerabilities by providing the platform for Cayman to compete successfully in progressive sectors on a global scale.

I think every country in the Caribbean needs a CEC; not just for economic diversification it creates, or the progressive employment and entrepreneurship opportunities it provides its people, or the USD1 billion socio-economic impact in 12 years since inception, but because CEC holds itself accountable. And in the Caribbean, accountability drives results. CEC isn’t obligated to conduct an economic impact assessment, but it does so voluntarily each year. This demonstrates that CEC takes its role in shaping Cayman’s socio-economic future very seriously, in delivering results for Caymanians now, and for the future generations to come.

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