This is not a moment of steady progress. It is a moment of divergence.

In some states, policymakers are advancing reforms grounded in evidence, second chances, and a more complete understanding of public safety. In others, leaders are doubling down on rigid sentencing structures that prioritize punishment over fairness, even when decades of research show those approaches do little to make communities safer.

The question facing the country is no longer whether reform is possible. It is whether policymakers are willing to follow the data or retreat from it.

Where Progress Is Moving Forward

In states like Maryland, Michigan, Washington, New Jersey, and New York, momentum is building behind policies that allow courts to revisit long sentences, expand parole eligibility, and strengthen pathways to second chances.

In Maryland, lawmakers advanced a broader set of reforms this session spanning youth justice, sentencing review, and civic reintegration. The Youth Charging Reform Act limits the automatic prosecution of young people as adults, addressing long-standing racial disparities in the youth system. Lawmakers also strengthened implementation of the Maryland Second Look Act to expand access to sentence review for some individuals convicted as young adults, and passed automatic voter registration for people returning from incarceration. Taken together, these measures reflect an emerging consensus that rehabilitation, youth development, and community reintegration are central to public safety.

These reforms are grounded in a growing body of evidence around the inefficacy of extremely long sentences, according to recent research from The Sentencing Project. People who have served long sentences, especially those over 50, pose minimal risk to public safety, and recidivism rates decline sharply with age and time served. The reforms also reflect a broader understanding of justice, one that recognizes rehabilitation, accountability, and the role of trauma and victimization.

Just as importantly, successful reform states have invested in narrative change before legislation is introduced. Advocates have paired data with stories of transformation, elevated survivor voices that prioritize prevention and healing, and built broad coalitions capable of sustaining reform efforts over time.

Long-term investment in education, coalition-building, and public engagement helps create the conditions necessary for reform to move.

Where States Are Backsliding

But this is only half the story.

In states like Georgia, Alabama, Iowa, and Missouri, lawmakers are advancing proposals that move in the opposite direction, including efforts to expand mandatory minimums, eliminate parole eligibility, and lengthen already excessive prison terms. In Virginia, reform efforts have stalled under similar political pressures and public safety narratives.

What is driving this divide is not simply policy disagreement. It is a narrative rooted in fear and an unhealthy attachment to punishment.

Where reform has stalled, a different narrative dominates. It equates safety with punitive measures, amplifies fear, and treats severity as the only form of accountability. In those environments, even evidence-based policies struggle to gain traction. These approaches also continue to disproportionately harm Black communities, which remain significantly overrepresented in prison populations across many of the states advancing or defending the harshest sentencing policies.

Fortunately, in Georgia, advocates successfully opposed legislation that would have expanded mandatory minimums and eliminated parole eligibility across a wide range of cases. In Delaware, advocates defeated efforts to restrict compassionate release for elderly and medically vulnerable people. These victories reflect a growing recognition that public safety is undermined, not strengthened, by policies that ignore rehabilitation and human capacity for change.

Where Reform Efforts Are Stalling

Even where reforms are enacted, another challenge remains: implementation.

Too often, access to relief is constrained by procedural barriers, lack of legal representation, and inconsistent application of the law. The result is a persistent gap between what reforms promise on paper and what people actually experience in practice.

This implementation gap risks undermining public confidence in reform itself. Laws designed to create meaningful release and second chances cannot succeed if the systems responsible for carrying them out continue to operate according to outdated punitive assumptions.

In Maryland, for example, implementation of the new parole law has been slowed by delays in developing the necessary regulations and by gaps in the reentry infrastructure. As a result, many individuals serving long sentences have not yet fully benefited from the law’s expanded opportunities for release. For those granted medical parole, securing appropriate post-release placement remains a significant barrier to realizing the law’s intended impact. Maryland’s experience underscores an important lesson for other states pursuing parole and long-sentencing reforms, legislative change must be accompanied by adequate implementation and reentry resources to achieve its intended outcomes.

The Defining Question for 2027

If 2026 has made anything unmistakably clear, it is that sentencing reform in the United States is no longer moving along a single trajectory. The country is being pulled in two different directions.

One vision, guided by evidence and human dignity, recognizes that accountability and rehabilitation are both essential to community safety. The other, driven by fear and partisanship, continues to cling to the idea that more punishment equals more safety despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

The states making real progress have demonstrated what is possible when policy is grounded in research and shaped by people directly impacted by the system. They have shown that accountability and rehabilitation are not competing values, but complementary ones, and that communities are stronger when the justice system recognizes the human capacity for growth and change.

The path forward is clear. Policymakers must close the gap between reform and implementation, invest in public understanding before fear-based narratives take hold, and reject policies that trade long-term safety for short-term political gain.

At a moment when punitive policies are resurging in many states, preserving existing reforms and preventing harmful rollbacks is itself an important measure of progress.

But meaningful progress will not happen automatically in 2027. It will require lawmakers, advocates, directly impacted leaders, survivors, and community organizations to work together now to build durable reform strategies rooted in evidence and public education.

The Sentencing Project stands ready to support state leaders and advocacy partners working to advance evidence-based sentencing reform, expand second chances, and promote policies that strengthen both accountability and community safety. As states prepare for the next legislative cycle, the opportunity remains open to build systems that reflect what decades of evidence already show: people are capable of change, and communities are safer when justice systems recognize that truth.

Sentencing reform has always been a question of values. In 2026, the choice is clear: whether policymakers will follow evidence, invest in safety strategies that work, and recognize the human capacity for change, or continue repeating punitive approaches that history and research have already shown to fail.

Keith Wallington is a Senior Campaign Strategist at The Sentencing Project. His work centers on advancing policies to abolish life without parole, expand second-look sentencing reviews, cap excessive sentences at 20 years, and eliminate mandatory minimums.

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Earlier this year, the Supreme Court of Pennsylvania ruled that mandatory sentences of life without parole (LWOP) for felony murder offenses are cruel and unconstitutional. The Court urged state lawmakers to rewrite the law and consider the fates of 1,100 people currently serving these sentences. Recently, the Pennsylvania legislature missed the Court’s July 24th deadline to establish a new sentencing law and adjourned for the remainder of the summer.

Before they left, the House and Senate passed competing bills, both would authorize retroactive sentence reviews for persons who served at least 30 years or more for felonies that resulted in a death, even if they did not kill, did not intend to kill, or played a limited role in the offense that resulted in the death.

How Pennsylvania Compares Nationally

Almost all states have felony murder laws (Kentucky and Hawaii are the exceptions), and 39 states mandate or allow life without parole for those convicted. About half of all states allow the death penalty in these cases.

Pennsylvania’s harshness stands out nationally because one quarter of people serving LWOP in the state were convicted of felony murder, 70% of this group are Black, and three-quarters committed their offense as youth or emerging adults.

Marie Scott’s Story

At 19 years old, Marie Scott became one of those statistics. A recent report from The Sentencing Project highlights her story:

Scott was convicted of felony murder for acting as a lookout in a gas station robbery, during which her co-defendant killed a station attendant. A survivor of childhood abuse, Scott developed a substance use disorder at a young age. During the time of the robbery, she was under the influence of pills given to her by her co-defendant, which impaired her ability to make rational decisions. She had no prior knowledge that her co-defendant would kill the attendant.

During her 53 years of incarceration, Scott transformed her life through education and mentorship. Scott completed paralegal training, earned her associate degree in sociology, and authored a bill calling on state agencies to study the needs of children with incarcerated parents.

Scott finally received a commutation from Governor Josh Shapiro, and at age 72 was released this past January, reuniting with her daughter and grandson.

Guided by Science, Not Fear

There are many others just like Scott in prison. When Pennsylvania lawmakers reconvene in September, they should prioritize how to build a more proportional and fair sentencing system. Requiring 30 years in prison is still too long when we know that the likelihood of recidivism decreases substantially as people age. Data and science should lead their decisionmaking, not politics and fearmongering.

For instance, extensive research on brain development has discovered that full maturity is not reached until age 25. Younger people are more impulsive, influenced by peers, and less likely than mature adults to consider the consequences of their actions. Undoubtedly, this vulnerability in brain structure influences criminal behavior. At the same time, young people have a great propensity for change and rehabilitation opportunities are immensely effective.

Decades in prison for people who can be released safely waste taxpayer dollars, strain communities, and fail to improve community safety. Because the overwhelming majority of people sentenced under Pennsylvia’s felony murder law were 25 or younger when they were sentenced, these findings should weigh heavily on decision makers as they seek to negotiate next steps on the new sentencing law.

In the meantime, the courts will be asked by people in prison serving unconstitutional sentences for relief. The outcomes are uncertain and opportunities to return home will be overly influenced by the individual attitudes of judges, prosecutors and defense attorneys involved in each case. The likelihood of outcome disparity by geography or race is high, which underscores the urgency of enacting proportional and fair legislative reform.

How You Can Help

The Sentencing Project’s foundational report, Felony Murder: An On-Ramp for Extreme Sentencing, details the nationwide impact of felony murder laws on mass incarceration, racial disparity, and injustice.

Read the full report to learn about your state’s laws and discover how you can advocate for meaningful reform.

You can also watch John Oliver’s excellent Last Week Tonight explainer for more information.

His older brother responded by calling him an idiot. While I don’t approve of that kind of language, I was deeply surprised by the gap in his knowledge. “No,” I explained, “it’s a day to celebrate the end of Black people’s enslavement in the United States.” Later, I asked him to join me at a Juneteenth celebration hosted by the Smithsonian’s Anacostia Community Museum here in Washington, DC. He generally prefers video games to museums, but when I told him he needed to go to educate himself, he knew I wasn’t backing down. He went.

The music, food, and exhibits we encountered all celebrated freedom in the United States. But as the country looks toward the anniversary of U.S. independence, the day offered a stark reminder that freedom in the U.S. remains an unfinished, 250-year-old experiment. It represents a constant pursuit of equity, dignity, justice, and safety—yet it has never applied to everyone equally.

Long before the U.S. declared its independence, its seeds were sown in land where Indigenous peoples were displaced or killed, and where African peoples were forcibly migrated and enslaved to build the country’s very foundation. The Founding Fathers, who lauded freedom for themselves, systematically denied it to millions of others.

Today, that hard-won freedom is under relentless attack. Mass incarceration persists at staggering rates, fueled by renewed calls for its expansion from leaders who routinely denigrate Black youth and immigrants. Simultaneously, the voting rights of Black Americans—once protected by the crowning achievement of the Civil Rights Movement—are being steadily eroded.

Yet, a history laden with violence and injustice can be disrupted. It always has been—by heroic champions like Sojourner Truth, John Lewis, and Bryan Stevenson, and by the people-powered movements fighting for voting rights and an end to mass incarceration.

Recently, we witnessed what that disruption looks like in practice. Freedom grew when Chris McBride was released from a Maryland prison after more than 30 years because he showed his family, community, and a Maryland judge that he was deserving of a second chance. His release was made possible by the Second Look Act—a sentencing reform bill passed after intensive lobbying by activists and formerly incarcerated people on behalf of young people convicted decades earlier. At his resentencing, Frederick County Circuit Judge Scott Rolle asked McBride if he understood the immense responsibility before him. His success would set the tone for the 650 other incarcerated individuals in Maryland who are now eligible for a second look under the new law. McBride responded that he “relished” the challenge, and the judge granted his release with a handshake and a hug.

Video above: Hear from advocate Joel Caston on the importance of giving people a second look.

Progress is also taking root in Missouri where the governor is poised to sign bipartisan legislation that includes a provision to expand voting rights to most people in the state serving probation or parole. With advocacy efforts led by the Missouri Voter Protection Coalition, this change will directly confront deep racial disparities. Research from The Sentencing Project found that one out of every 26 Black adults in Missouri were disenfranchised because of a felony conviction.

This progress is a victory for every champion of freedom, but the work is far from over. It won’t be completed in my lifetime. Fortunately, I know a 14-year-old who is proving up to the task.

Earlier this month, my son graduated from middle school and was selected by his teachers to speak at the promotion ceremony. Addressing his peers, he compared their lives to “the most extraordinary and beautiful book ever written. In the reading of this book, you will feel joy, pain, comfort, heartbreak, and everything in between.”

His metaphor captured the essence of the American story. He told the audience that while we cannot go back and rewrite earlier, painful chapters, we can fully engage with the present to shape future passages.

As we pause during this milestone historical season, we must find inspiration from the past to write our own next chapter. We must tell our lawmakers that a criminal justice system marred by racial disparity and extreme punishment has no place dictating the contours of our democracy or deciding who can access the ballot box. We must demand that Congress stop investing billions of dollars to expand systems of punishment and exclusion and instead invest in families, opportunity, and communities.

We are all co-authors of this nation’s future. The next chapter is already being written by the choices we make today: what we teach our children, what we demand of our leaders, and whose freedom we choose to defend. Let us write a history that all of us can celebrate.

The Great Reversal

In just six short years, the dominant conversation about racial justice in the United States has turned upside down. National political leaders have demonized diversity and equity in education and the workforce, Black history is being erased from museums and classrooms, and the Supreme Court has decimated the Voting Rights Act of 1965, allowing states to silence the political voices of Black citizens.

I am angry, sad, and motivated.

Investing in the Frontlines

I lead a national criminal justice reform organization that, for 40 years, has directly confronted the racial injustice at the heart of the U.S. legal system and its perpetuation of mass incarceration. After Floyd’s death, we established a Racial Justice Fund. The fund reallocates some of the increased resources we received to partners in states who are working to protect youth and adults impacted by mass incarceration. Since then, The Sentencing Project has granted about $1 million to grassroots nonprofit organizations who prioritize the leadership of people impacted by the criminal legal system. We hope to grow this investment in the coming years because the work for justice requires many hands and minds.

Connecticut’s Initiative

Organizations working directly with individuals most impacted by incarceration are often best positioned to identify solutions to ending mass incarceration and its impact on Black communities. The Connecticut Justice Alliance (CTJA) is one organization that The Sentencing Project has partnered with this year through our Racial Justice Fund, and they exemplify this model. Executive Director Christina Quaranta and Deputy Director of Strategic Initiatives Jordyn Wilson, who lead the organization, describe themselves as two moms who “show up daily to protect the rights and futures of Connecticut’s youth and build the right, properly funded and supported, communities that our kids will grow up in.”

Nationally, Black youth are almost six times as likely to be incarcerated as their white peers. This racial disparity for youth in juvenile facilities is the highest it has been since 1997. In Connecticut, Black youth are 17 times as likely to be incarcerated as their white peers.

CTJA collaborates with youth impacted by the juvenile justice system, including youth who are currently incarcerated, “teaching them the power of youth voice in political advocacy and community organizing,” according to Wilson. They speak with lawmakers and community stakeholders about the need for change. Their advocacy helped raise the minimum age of arrest to 10. Their organizational priorities include expanding parole eligibility, investing in diversion and community-based supports for youth, removing youth from adult prisons, and stopping the creation of new youth prisons.

CTJA is one of many community-focused organizations doing powerful work to support young people in their efforts to build thriving, healthy futures for themselves and their families. I’m excited by their progress and optimistic that their accomplishments will grow in Connecticut.

A Lesson in Hope

While the current political movement for racial justice faces big hurdles, our fight continues. There is a lesson to be learned from the young people successfully advocating for justice reform in Connecticut. Despite the dire circumstances of their incarceration, they can make change happen. We can too.

We owe it to the memory of George Floyd, and too many others whose names became catalysts for change, to ensure that the fire ignited six years ago isn’t extinguished by the backlash, but instead fuels a more enduring, community-led fight for racial justice.

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For this post, I want to highlight the story of one participant: “Evan Smith.”

The Reality of "Free"

Smith, who is disabled and relies on a wheelchair, was released from prison in New York after 42 years of incarceration. The day of his release, he was left on the street by the Department of Corrections with nowhere to go. Officials instructed him to head to a police station to declare he was homeless and needed help.

“They wanted me to find housing,” he told researchers. “However, I have no family. They’re all deceased. I have no friends. I’ve not had a visit from anyone since 1996…”

After decades in prison, Smith’s relationships to the free world had withered away. While non-profit organizations like the Parole Preparation Project and Justice and Unity from the Southern Tier eventually helped him connect with social services, housing accessibility for someone in a wheelchair proved elusive.

He was eventually placed in an accessible hotel room—but his disability kept him from leaving, and he lacked the transportation to find work. Worse, the hotel management restricts his movement, fearful that his presence will upset paying guests. Laundry and breakfast amenities are off-limits due to the stigma attached to publicly assisted residents.

Sadly, he describes the experience as “more like a prison—another prison cell.”

A Systemic Failure

Evan Smith’s story underscores the need for tailored reentry programming that is responsive to the specific needs of individuals with disabilities.

The data confirms this is a widespread issue. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, nearly 2 in 5 people in state and federal prisons report at least one disability. Furthermore, 41% of incarcerated people have a history of mental health struggles.

The reentry needs for people with disabilities and the elderly are acute, yet their circumstances are too often ignored or deprioritized. Agencies inside and outside of prisons must do better. We cannot claim to support “second chances” if our systems leave the most vulnerable people with no chance at all.

I hope you will read the full report and share your thoughts with me or its authors, Kristen Budd and Sabrina Pearce.

What do you think is the biggest barrier to reentry in your community? Let me know in the comments.