• Every traditional midterm indicator points to a Democratic year, so why do the individual races look dicey?

• Why toss-up Senate races (Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas) almost never split 50-50 — they move together

• Michigan: Tucker Carlson says he wouldn’t vote for Mike Rogers “at gunpoint.” Serious question: Is Rogers actually a good candidate?

• 2028 Democratic calendar: South Carolina going first, what it does to Gavin Newsom, Andy Beshear, AOC, and everyone else

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• Ted Cruz’s 2028 theory: the last mainstream-ish Reagan Republican standing if Vance and the rest crash

• Texas: James Talarico leading or tied with Ken Paxton for months; Karl Rove, John Cornyn, and John Kennedy all sounding alarms

• Trump’s midterm strategy: “Pretend I’m on the ballot” — but is this strategy smart or dumb?

• Milo Yiannopoulos goes on on Piers Morgan after being deported: hypocrisy, the veil of ignorance, and why “there but for the grace of God go I” matters more than ever.

• And a LOT more!

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Join us next week for another LIVE conversation.

Best,
Matt

• Why Elon Musk’s midterm cash is both a Republican windfall and a political liability

• Hasan Piker vs. Elon Musk: the huge asymmetry Democrats keep ignoring

• How Musk’s Wisconsin Supreme Court spend spectacularly backfired

• “The richest bigot in the world” — documented racism, antisemitism, and why GOP candidates should have to own it

• Tech oligarchs, DOGE, data centers, and the populist backlash to billionaire politics

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• Milo Yiannopoulos deported: when the MAGA revolution eats its own

• Pete Hegseth 2028 rumors, Pentagon purges, Stars and Stripes firings, and wartime secrecy

• Trump threatens the FCC over Kristen Welker and “Meet the Press”

• Mail-in voting rules, chaos as strategy, and laying the groundwork to reject 2026 results

• Washington Post ordered to reinstate columnist Karen Attiah after Charlie Kirk posts — plus the larger problem of celebrating political violence

• And MUCH more!

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Join us again next week when we should be back on our Tuesday schedule.

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Best,
Matt

An event that sounds mundane, and yet was pretty significant, occurred earlier this week: Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed debated Jesse Watters on his Fox News show. Other outlets generally framed it as a “contentious” interview, where the two men “clashed” or “tangled.” It was certainly that, but it was also something much more remark…

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Two quick things with you this morning ...

First, it’s always a pleasure when I get to talk with my friend David Frum.

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Our latest conversation was no exception. We covered a lot of ground, including David’s take on Trump’s trade war with Canada, — and a big question that has been on his mind: What are Jewish voters supposed to do in Michig…

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• Abdul El-Sayed’s association with Hasan Piker derails Michigan Senate unity after Piker’s comments blaming American Jews for antisemitism and violence

• Democratic critics (including Jeremy Moss) refuse to endorse; Republican Mike Rogers capitalizes

• Cultural landmines: Transgender issues in girls’ sports (close to an 80-20 public opinion), Seth Moulton’s apology, and the risk of learning the wrong lessons from a strong midterm

• Economic populism that works (Medicare for All, taxing billionaires) vs. toxic cultural/“socialism” branding that turns off middle America

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• Trump administration rolling back protections for military families — arrest of a Nicaraguan father of a sailor on the USS Abraham Lincoln and similar cases

• Are data centers the sleeper 2026 issue Republicans own while Trump cheers them on?

• Hakeem Jeffries, Democratic minority leader, met privately with Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law and top outside adviser. But why???

• And MUCH more!

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Tune in next week!

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Matt

• The controversy over Sen. Jon Ossoff’s referencing of Trump aide Natalie Harp, and just how much we should read into the very personal notes she sent to Donald Trump

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• A new survey suggests Marco Rubio has a better chance of defeating top Democrats than JD Vance. Is this much ado about nothing?

• Bill says that El-Sayed may be winning, but he should dance like nobody’s watching (or something like that). Read Bill’s take here.

• We also delve into some polling that suggests that Americans like moderate politicians and progressive policies, but not “socialism.”

• And MUCH MORE!

Thank you , , , , , and many others for tuning into my live video with .

And don’t forget to check out my latest column at NOTUS, “Reagan Worship Is So Yesterday. Republicans Need a New Hero — And It Should Be Teddy Roosevelt.”

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Best,

Matt

• The debt is out of control. Why doesn’t anybody care???

• Sen. Jon Ossoff’s comment about Trump and Natalie Harp (the “human printer”), the viral speculation, her unusual rise, the fawning notes, and why her role as gatekeeper of information is more consequential than pure personal gossip.

• The Florida primary results, including Alex Vindman’s surprise loss and what it says about the limits of NeverTrump celebrity candidates, the rise of DSA energy in Dem primaries, and the need for more than just anti-Trump messaging.

• Darlene Graham’s South China Sea / national-security gaffe in the South Carolina Senate runoff and how timing plus pre-existing doubts can turn a moment into a real problem.

• Bill Clinton turning 80, his complicated legacy, how his scandals and the political response helped shape later norms around character, and MUCH more!

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We also discuss my latest column for NOTUS, titled: Reagan Worship Is So Yesterday. Republicans Need a New Hero — And It Should Be Teddy Roosevelt.

Here’s an excerpt:

To everything there is a season. During his first inaugural address, Ronald Reagan declared, “In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem.” Almost nobody remembers the first part of that clause — “in this present crisis” — but it’s an important caveat.

Reagan came along at a time when the economy was stagnant and tax rates were high. His solution was to scale back government, stimulate free markets and restore individual liberty. And it worked. As a result, Reagan served as the beau ideal for the Republican Party for a generation after he left office.

Then Donald Trump came along and tried to set himself up as the GOP’s new hero. For those of us who are Never Trump Republicans, it has always been tempting to respond by simply re-elevating the ghost of Reagan. The problem is that the world has changed. While there are some similarities between the challenges Reagan faced and the ones we face today (inflation, Iran, acid-washed jeans), the “present crisis” in 2026 is fundamentally different — and calls for a new historical model for the GOP.

Great presidents — Washington, Lincoln, FDR, et al. — have almost always been elected to solve some central problem. And so, to discern the right hero for contemporary Republicans requires answering this question: What is today’s central problem?

That’s just a teaser. Read the whole thing here.

And if you like reading my NOTUS columns, sign up to receive them as soon as they publish!

Thank you , , , , , and many others for tuning into my live video with .

Tune in next week at 10am ET for another discussion!

Best,

Matt

• Reuters poll: Trump approval sinks to 33%, disapproval 64% — lowest of current term, matching December 2017 low

• Sen. John Ossoff’s sharp speeches: calls out golfing, stock trading, Qatar “flying palace,” and Natalie Harp, while the U.S.S. Lincoln fights his war

• The one big Democratic warning: Abdul El-Sayed underwater in Michigan (Fox poll)

• Foreign-policy chaos: Trump scales back South Korea joint exercises, cites “good relationship” with Kim Jong-un (who supplies missiles to Iran and Russia)

• Simultaneously withdraws the last U.S. carrier from the Pacific and threatens to “bomb the shit out of” ally Oman if it interferes with Iran talks

• Closing question for 2026/2028: Do Democrats choose electable fighters like Ossoff who win swing states, or ideological purity that loses independents?

• And MUCH more!

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Join us again next Tuesday at 10am ET for another terrific conversation on politics and the news of the day!

Best,
Matt

I wanted to call your attention to my latest piece over a NOTUS. It’s a little different than you might expect.

The topic is … beauty:

On his podcast earlier this month, Tucker Carlson laid out 10 ideas that he said should undergird American life and politics. It sounded, as Axios put it, very much like a “manifesto” — perhaps for a new political…

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• Massive polling misses in Michigan and Wisconsin. One reason this happened?: Under-sampling middle-aged Black voters and rural Democrats

• Clear evidence that DSA and DSA-aligned candidates are underperforming with Black voters — the same coalition that blocked Bernie Sanders

• Why 2026 is likely a referendum on Trump and the economy, but 2028 could see the “socialism” label stick and drive voters back to Republicans

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• Trump’s recent endorsement flops (Darlene Graham runoff, Mike Lindell, Tennessee) are signs his iron grip on the GOP is loosening (or are they???)

• Jeff Flake’s arc from pure conservative to endorsing a Democrat Jon Ossoff, and the death of the anti-Trump lane in GOP primaries

• Hunter Biden’s Tucker Carlson interview, fathers-and-sons dynamics, and the complicated human side of political families

• Trump’s secret catering-truck plane switch amid Iran threat concerns: security necessity vs. bad optics and press deception

• Speculation on the next White House press secretary (Kari Lake, Spencer Pratt, or Scott Jennings?)

• And MUCH more!

Thank you , , , , , and many others for tuning into my live video with .

Join us next Thursday at 10am ET, for another LIVE conversation!

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Matt

• Why DSA member and failed Wisconsin candidate Francesca Hong was an “absurdly bad candidate” (and why Bernie and AOC stayed away)

• How Dems realized they were about to blow a winnable race and hand Wisconsin to an election-denier

• Charlie says there are three things every candidate must prove to voters (Hong went 0-for-3)

• Matt says 2026 is largely “baked in the cake” as a blue-wave year driven by Trump fatigue, overreach, tariffs, ICE, etc. But! Dems better not take 2028 for granted.

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• Good news! An Independent / Centrist / Unity-Ticket surge has Katie Hobbs (Arizona Democratic governor) picking a Republican running mate, and David Jolly (former Republican Never Trumper congressman) picking a prominent Democrat as running mate in Florida.

• Can we trust the polls?

• Plus: Trump’s catering-truck Air Force One escape, the independent/unity-ticket surge, Minnesota, Michigan, and more.

• And MUCH more!

Thank you , , , , , and many others for tuning into my live video with !

Tune in tomorrow at 10am ET, when I’ll be talking with .

Best,

Matt

My hope for you is that you are not like me. That you’re not a fan of some small market baseball team. That you won’t have to endure constant heartbreak. That you won’t be patted on the head while some big market fan with a charmed life assures you it “builds character.”

But if you are one of these unfortunate folks, then you might at lea…

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• Abdul El-Sayed’s Democratic primary win in Michigan despite being outspent roughly 9-to-1

• The growing power of Democratic Socialist (or DSA-adjacent) candidates

• Controversies around Hassan Piker, guilt-by-association risks, and how they could hurt progressive nominees in general elections

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• Multiple House Republican scandals — and whether Trump has permanently lowered the bar for character in politics

• Speculating on the 2028 Republican field — JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Tucker Carlson’s potential run, and the rise of the attention economy over traditional campaign metrics

• A candid digression on the MLB trade-deadline deals, and why analytics culture is draining the fun from both baseball and politics

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Matt

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Today’s podcast guest was veteran journalist Ron Fournier of the Convulsions Substack.

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In a deep and thought provoking conversation, Ron explaind why Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary between Rep. Haley Stevens and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed is the true bellwether of 2026 politics — and a microcosm of the Democratic Party’s identity crisis.

According to Ron, there are six important dynamics currently playing out in this race:

1. Status Quo vs. Change

2. Moderate vs. Liberal

3. Israel vs. Palestine

4. Christian vs. Muslim

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5. Women vs. Men

6. Grit vs. Charisma

We spent time on all six!

Don’t miss this terrific conversation.

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Best,

Matt

Before you ride off into the sunset, I wanted to share a few quick things I’ve been working on.

My latest column deals with the news that New York Times columnist Ross Douthat would be joining “60 Minutes” as a correspondent.

The question I was most curious about was this: “Why Ross?”

That’s not to say he’s not smart and talented. But the …

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• DSA co-chair Megan Romer outlines an agenda that would abolish Senate/presidency/Supreme Court, ICE, borders, prisons; defund Pentagon; mass amnesty

• Wisconsin governor primary flashpoint: far-left DSA candidate Francesca Hong risks handing the state to election-denier Tom Tiffany — with 2028 consequences

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• Gerontocracy crisis: Mitch McConnell’s second “proof of life” photos, and the August 3 deadline for a special election

  

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• Sen. John Thune’s rare pushback on the filibuster and Trump’s “Save America” bill as scapegoat theater

• Elon Musk crash-out: SpaceX/Tesla valuation free-fall, that Economist interview, and DOGE hypocrisy (“money won’t matter in 10 years”)

• White House Correspondents’ Dinner disaster: predictable humiliation, Trump’s ugly attacks on Kaitlin Collins …

  

  … and the bad Kristen Welker/Stephen Miller optics:

• My broader warning: Democrats must focus on winning the House, Senate, and key governorships — or risk losing the Republic

• And much MUCH more!

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Best,

Matt

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During today’s LIVE conversation, we discussed:

• Rep. Haley Stevens was ambushed by TMZ. She leaned hard into her Matt Foley / “van down by the river” energy — and it worked!

• Why leaning into the turn (and her real Michigan accent) is smart politics in the authenticity era

• The upcoming Michigan Senate Democratic primary (Aug 4): Stevens vs. Abdul El-Sayed — who actually wins?

• The Wisconsin DSA primary threat — and what it signals nationally

• Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff’s breakout as the fighter Democrats NEED.

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• The generic ballot reality check (thanks to viewers who informed me that Dems are back up BIGLY in the generic ballot), Trump’s low approvals, and why midterms will punish the White House

• Ben Sasse’s grace, Tim Russert has alrady been forgotten by Gen Z, and MUCH more.

*** PLUS: We also discussed my latest NOTUS column, “In Defense of Nixonmaxxing.”

If you’re not familiar, Richard Nixon is having a moment. And one big reason has to do with the Nixon Foundation producing some pretty cool viral videos.

Richard Nixon is back, baby! Our 37th president is having a moment, thanks in part to some recent plugs by Vice President JD Vance but mostly because of an innovative barrage of social-media-savvy short videos created by the Richard Nixon Foundation. There’s a speech about America’s greatness that dissolves into Guns N’ Roses’ “Sweet Child O’ Mine.” There are quick shots of Nixon paired with Jerry Lee Lewis’ “Great Balls of Fire.” There’s a Nixon video montage set to the 1980s British synth-pop song “The Promise.”

Of course, there’s more to it than some slickly produced videos.

I get into a) why this is happening, and b) why I think it’s a net positive.

And by the way, I didn’t have time to talk about this in the column, but if you ever have the chance to get to the Nixon Library, you should definitely do it.

The Reagan Library deservedly gets a lot of praise, but don’t sleep on Nixon’s.

As far as I know, it’s the only presidential library that also includes the birthplace — and burial grounds — of the late president.

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As an added bonus, you can take your own iconic photo of Nixon’s helicopter departure.

Read my FULL column here.

Thank you , , , , , and many others for tuning into my live video with !

Best,

Matt

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Based on some of the feedback I received, it seems some viewers misunderstood what I meant when I said that I was “America First.”

To set the record straight, I wrote a column about it at NOTUS:

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[M]y question is: What should putting America first really mean? I would argue it means embracing the values, norms and institutions of American democracy. It means defending the Declaration. The Constitution. The rule of law. And it literally means prioritizing those things over other pursuits. In this regard, it is both patriotic and commonsensical.

To further explain why this is relevant, I talked about how some anti-anti-Trumpers were praising Lindsay Graham.

Their argument was basically “Sure, he sucked up to Trump. But he did it to help Ukraine!

To which I responded,

To an internationalist like me, who grew up in the Reagan era watching movies like “Red Dawn,” the idea of America helping supply resources to defend a country invaded by Russia seems like a no-brainer.

But not if stopping an authoritarian abroad requires empowering an authoritarian at home. And make no mistake, this fairly explicit transaction was on full display the very day Graham died.

Read the whole thing here.

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… Now on to today’s Substack LIVE conversation with Charlie Sykes. (No, that’s not us being arrested.)

Here’s a quick run-down of what we covered:

• Andrew and Tristan Tate accused of choking women unconscious then raping them — will Trump block extradition to UK?

• Why young men (and Barron Trump?) are drawn to these man-o-sphere “dominance” influencers

• Trump’s pattern: protecting allies, flirting with pardons for Diddy/Maxwell, and his own E. Jean Carroll liability

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• Democratic 2026 Senate primaries imploding in Michigan & Wisconsin — socialism vs. electability

• Those John Fetterman party-switch rumors could flip Senate control

• Lindsey Graham’s sister running for his seat

• Trump plays golf and gets booed at World Cup while Middle East war escalates with U.S. deaths

• Todd Blanche confirmation fight, DOJ weaponization fears, and post-truth corruption

• And MUCH more!

Thank you , , , , , and many others for tuning into my live video with .

Join us again next Tuesday at 10am ET for another LIVE conversation about politics!

Best,

Matt

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I wanted to share a few interesting things I’ve been reading that might have escaped your attention.

1. Dr. Russell Moore on “The Spiritual Reason Our Elderly Leaders Refuse to Give Up Power.”

2. Howard Gordon on “How Trump Poisoned the Election Integrity Debate.”

3. NOTUS’ Dana Milbank on “Noise Pollution Threatens the Countryside. I Fought Back — L…

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