Happy Friday! We have made it to the end of another week. The coffee is hot. My kids are still asleep. It is 3:52 a.m. in rural Kansas and I have 16 tabs open because between Wednesday morning and this morning, a federal judge in Maryland issued a 35-page ruling blocking birthright citizenship for the second time, Leon Black hired lawyers to sue the House Oversight Committee instead of showing up under oath, Speaker Mike Johnson canceled the last two weeks of September so his members could go home and campaign, the Missouri Supreme Court unanimously threw out the redistricting map that was going to give Republicans one more House seat, the Trump administration ran to the Supreme Court Thursday afternoon to try to unblock a mail-ballot rule the same judge in Boston blocked a week ago, an ICE agent got federally indicted for lying about shooting a Venezuelan man, the Pentagon’s own casualty database quietly ticked up to 774 American service members killed or wounded in the Iran war, Iran’s Red Crescent asked the International Criminal Court to investigate the wedding in Sirik as a war crime, and Ukrainian naval drones set an oil depot on fire at the Russian resort city of Sochi while Russia dropped Shahed drones on a Coca-Cola bottling plant outside Kyiv and Zelensky called that one a message to America.

Somewhere in a nicer time zone somebody is on a farmer’s market run picking out apples. Here I am, waiting for the 8:30 jobs number, and the president is on Truth Social at 7:18 yesterday morning posting that Syria is pitching itself as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. This is great, he said. Exclamation point.

Let’s go.

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Leon Black Sued Congress

Yesterday morning, the billionaire founder of Apollo Global Management did not walk into the House Oversight Committee for the deposition he had been subpoenaed to give under oath about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. Instead, his lawyer filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia arguing the subpoenas exceed the committee’s authority and asking a federal judge to quash them.

The lawyer is Susan Estrich. The lawsuit was filed against the House Oversight Committee and its chairman, James Comer.

James Comer, the Republican chair of the committee, spent the summer trying to get Leon Black in a room. Black walked out of the last one — the June closed-door interview — inside of an hour when they got to the part about the nondisclosure agreements he signed with the women. Then the committee subpoenaed him for yesterday. Yesterday came. Black sued.

Comer can now move to hold Leon Black in contempt of Congress. Whether he will is the question. The last person the House held in contempt was Steve Bannon in 2021, and he served 4 months. Robert Garcia, the top Democrat on the committee, is in line to become chair if Republicans lose the House on November 3. That is 60 days from today.

The 2021 review Apollo Global commissioned from the Dechert law firm found Black paid Epstein $158 million between 2012 and 2017 for what the report described as “tax and estate planning advice.” In 2023 Black paid the U.S. Virgin Islands attorney general $62.5 million to end any future Epstein-related prosecution in the territory. Black told the committee in June: “I wish I had never met Epstein.”

He told a federal judge yesterday that Congress cannot make him say it under oath.

The House Is Going Home

Speaker Mike Johnson stood up yesterday and canceled the last two weeks of September session. The House was originally scheduled to be in Washington the weeks of September 21 and September 28. Members will now leave the Capitol on September 17 and will not return until after the November 3 midterm election.

That is 4 remaining days of legislative business between now and the election that decides whether Johnson keeps his gavel.

The stated reason: Republicans want to be home campaigning. The unstated reason is the same. Punchbowl has it plainly: “The House is going, going, gone.” A stopgap keeps the government funded through mid-December, which means the incoming Congress will inherit the funding fight in January.

Johnson has spent months describing the 119th Congress as “one of the most productive Congresses in the history of the institution.” Yesterday he sent it home.

Missouri Threw The Map Out

The Missouri Supreme Court ruled unanimously yesterday that the new congressional map — HB 1, signed by Gov. Mike Kehoe last September — cannot be used for the November midterms. The court restrained Secretary of State Denny Hoskins and anyone acting with him from implementing or mandating the map and placed a referendum on the November 3 ballot letting voters decide whether the map ever takes effect.

The new map was designed to turn Missouri’s House delegation from 6 Republicans and 2 Democrats into 7 Republicans and 1 Democrat. The court said no.

Republicans in Missouri passed the map in September 2025. Voters gathered more than 300,000 signatures to force a referendum. On August 4, a few hours before polls closed in the state’s primary election, Denny Hoskins, the Republican Secretary of State, issued a certificate declaring the referendum petition insufficient, trying to keep it off the November ballot. The Missouri Supreme Court yesterday ruled the petition was legal, sufficient and timely and overturned the lower court that had backed Hoskins.

Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway said the state will appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Between Missouri yesterday and the pending Trump-administration appeal in the Talwani mail-in voting case, the Supreme Court is now the venue for two different Republican attempts to change how Americans vote between now and November 3.

The Trump Administration Went To SCOTUS On Mail Ballots

Yesterday afternoon, Solicitor General D. John Sauer filed an emergency stay application at the Supreme Court asking the justices to unblock the Postal Service rule Judge Indira Talwani in Boston temporarily restrained a week ago.

Talwani’s temporary restraining order runs through September 10. The Supreme Court gave the 24 states and the District of Columbia challenging the rule until 10 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, September 8, to file a response. The rule dictates ballot-envelope design, addressee information, and the data states have to feed into a USPS portal to have their ballots handled.

Talwani heard argument yesterday morning on whether to convert her TRO into a preliminary injunction. Her line at the hearing, per the New York Times, was that the Trump mail rules could cause states real chaos in the 60 days before an election.

The clock is now on the Supreme Court.

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Boardman Blocked Birthright Citizenship Again

U.S. District Judge Deborah Boardman in Greenbelt, Maryland, issued a 35-page preliminary injunction Wednesday against Trump’s newest executive order restricting birthright citizenship. This is the second Trump executive order Boardman has blocked. Her February 2025 injunction against the first one was the ruling the Supreme Court took up on emergency grounds in June 2025 and lifted on narrow procedural grounds without ever addressing the constitutional question. Trump then issued a narrower version in August. Boardman blocked that one too.

Her words on the narrower order: “This Court must, once again, preliminarily enjoin enforcement of the President’s most recent attempt to strip the right to citizenship from them.”

She called the new order “almost certainly unconstitutional as applied to the certified class.” She called the Justice Department’s argument that this order is meaningfully different from the last one “unpersuasive.” She said the administration is relying on a “distorted interpretation” of what the Supreme Court actually did in June.

The plaintiffs are CASA and the Asylum Seeker Advocacy Project. The Trump administration is expected to appeal.

The Pentagon Number Is 774

The Washington Post reported in late August that the Pentagon’s own casualty reporting system now stands at 774 U.S. service members killed or wounded in the Iran war since it began 6 months ago. 18 killed. 756 wounded. The Pentagon has been quietly adding names to the wounded list even during the weeks when there was supposed to be a ceasefire.

The 14-point ceasefire memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 expired August 17. Trump did not extend it. Tuesday night, the United States hit multiple sites across Iran and killed 18 civilians and wounded 108 by Iran’s health minister’s count. Iran’s Tasnim news agency yesterday reported 6 more Iranian military dead from Tuesday’s strikes, including 3 pilots. That brings the reported Iranian military death toll from this week alone to at least 13.

18 civilians. 13 military. 108 wounded. One wedding party.

The Iranian Red Crescent yesterday formally asked the International Criminal Court to investigate the strike on the wedding at Kuhestak in Sirik County as a war crime. Their letter to the ICC says the strike hit at 9:30 p.m. local time on Tuesday. 4 dead, 67 wounded. 2 women and 2 children among the dead. The children were 4 and 16.

The ICE Agent Got Charged

The Justice Department federally indicted an Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer named Christian Castro yesterday for lying to federal investigators about the circumstances of his shooting of a Venezuelan immigrant earlier this year.

Castro surrendered voluntarily. His first federal court appearance is today. He faces multiple counts of making false statements. He is also facing state charges in Minnesota. The Justice Department is still weighing separate civil rights charges.

Per CNN, this is the first time the Justice Department has federally charged an ICE officer for actions taken while on duty during Trump’s immigration enforcement operations. The line the department has held for 8 months just cracked, on a Thursday afternoon in early September, on the desk of a US Attorney willing to sign.

Ukraine Set Sochi On Fire

Overnight into today, Ukraine’s Navy launched a naval drone strike on a Russian vessel called Nefrit at the port of Sochi and reportedly hit an oil depot in the same city. Sochi is the Russian Black Sea resort where Putin has a residence. The vessel was part of Russia’s offshore energy infrastructure. Video released by the Ukrainian Navy shows the vessel on fire. Russian Telegram channels showed the oil depot on fire near the port and reported an explosion near a Pantsir air defense apparatus.

Ukraine’s General Staff this morning: 121 Russian drones and one missile fired at Ukraine overnight, Russian daily losses of 1,440 troops and 77 artillery systems.

Russia’s answer yesterday came at a Coca-Cola bottling plant in Brovary, in Kyiv region. Shahed drones hit the plant during the daytime and Zelensky in his evening address said the choice of target — an American company — was “a clear Russian signal to America.” Kyiv is now in its 8th consecutive day of Russian attacks. 13 injured yesterday. 12 dead earlier in the week.

Two war fronts. Two capital cities. Two presidents who signed a peace deal Trump personally brokered in April and neither of whom is now honoring it.

The Jobs Number Is Coming

At 8:30 a.m. Eastern this morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August employment report. ADP printed 38,000 private-sector jobs added in August on Wednesday — the slowest hiring pace since January and about 20% below the 48,000 Reuters had forecast. July’s nonfarm number was -23,000, meaning the American economy shed jobs for the first time in a very long time. The Wall Street consensus for this morning’s BLS number is about 55,000.

Watch the unemployment rate. Watch the revisions to June and July. Watch what Trump posts on Truth Social afterward.

Also On The Wire

Pacific Islands Forum. 17 of 18 Pacific nations agreed to a joint statement rebuking China’s July intercontinental ballistic missile test, demanding 24-hour advance notice on future tests. Only Nauru dissented under Chinese pressure. Palau host Surangel Whipps Jr. said Beijing must “respect sovereignty.” Beijing accused Palau of “malicious” hijacking.

Google avoided the ad-tech breakup. Federal Judge Leonie Brinkema in Alexandria on Wednesday accepted behavioral remedies instead of ordering Google to divest AdX, its advertising exchange. Publishers pay Google a 20% fee on every automated ad auction. This is the third federal antitrust loss the Justice Department has taken against a Big Tech company in the last year.

South Korea is being pressured to deploy naval assets to the Strait of Hormuz under the US-led “freedom of navigation” campaign. Seoul told Washington in August it was willing to send a ship and a maritime patrol aircraft. The presidential office in Seoul this morning says no final decision has been made. The European Union has formally joined the US-led sanctions campaign against Iran.

Nepal death toll is 1,252. 4,216 still missing. The combined Nepal-China toll has passed 1,270 with more than 4,700 missing per Al Jazeera. Prime Minister Balendra Shah is shifting the government from search and rescue to rehabilitation. 75 Americans remain unaccounted for.

The Massie discharge petition on the Epstein Files Transparency Act II stands at 49 signatures as of Tuesday per the House Clerk. It needs 218. Massie says he expects every Democrat to sign, including the two new Democrats sworn in this week from the California and Georgia special elections.

Christian Castro’s first court appearance is today in Minnesota. See the ICE section above.

What Are We Going To Do About It

The House goes home in 13 days and does not come back before the election. The Capitol switchboard is (202) 224-3121. Three things to say today:

1. That your House member demand James Comer hold Leon Black in contempt of Congress for defying his subpoena.

2. That your House member sign the Massie-Khanna-Leger Fernández discharge petition on the Epstein Files Transparency Act II before the House leaves on September 17.

3. That your senators publicly demand a briefing on the updated Pentagon casualty number of 774 U.S. service members killed or wounded in the Iran war, and a finding on the Sirik wedding strike.

Senate is on recess through September 14. Their offices still answer their phones.

The Ask

Degreed journalist. 50 states, 65 countries. I quit the flower shop in July. I quit betting on myself a long time before that, and is me undoing it.

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If you are already a subscriber, thank you and please forward the newsletter to one person today. That is worth more to me than the money.

PS:

1. Call the Capitol switchboard. (202) 224-3121.

2. Sign up for the newsletter if you have not.

3. Forward it to one person if you have.

4. 8:30 a.m. Eastern for the BLS jobs number.

5. Comer versus Leon Black. Contempt or not.

Sources:

Leon Black defies House Oversight subpoena, sues Congress in U.S. District Court for D.C., attorney Susan Estrich, Comer contempt option, Robert Garcia in line to chair — Politico, September 3, 2026. CBS News, September 3, 2026. The Guardian, September 3, 2026.

$158 million paid to Epstein 2012–2017 for “tax and estate planning advice” per 2021 Dechert report commissioned by Apollo Global Management — CNN, January 25, 2021. $62.5 million settlement with U.S. Virgin Islands attorney general in 2023 — WRAL / Associated Press, July 21, 2023.

House GOP cancels last two weeks of September votes, leaves September 17, does not return until after November 3, stopgap funds government through mid-December — Notus, September 3, 2026. Punchbowl News, September 3, 2026. ABC News, September 3, 2026.

Missouri Supreme Court unanimously blocks GOP-favored congressional map, orders referendum on November 3 ballot, state reverts to 2022 map, AG Catherine Hanaway to appeal to U.S. Supreme Court, 300,000+ signatures gathered December 2025 — UPI, September 4, 2026. St. Louis Public Radio, September 3, 2026.

Trump administration files emergency stay application at Supreme Court on USPS mail-in voting rule, Solicitor General D. John Sauer, TRO expires September 10, challengers ordered to respond by 10 a.m. Tuesday September 8, Judge Talwani heard argument on preliminary injunction Thursday — SCOTUSblog, September 3, 2026. New York Times, September 3, 2026.

Judge Deborah Boardman 35-page preliminary injunction on Trump’s newest birthright-citizenship executive order, “This Court must, once again” quote, “almost certainly unconstitutional as applied to the certified class,” “unpersuasive” and “distorted interpretation” language, plaintiffs CASA and Asylum Seeker Advocacy Project — The Hill, September 3, 2026. Jurist, September 3, 2026. Reuters, September 3, 2026.

Pentagon casualty database now shows 774 U.S. service members killed or wounded in Iran war, 18 killed and 756 wounded, June 14-point ceasefire MOU expired Monday, Iran conflict enters sixth month — Washington Post via Daily Finland, September 4, 2026.

Iran military death toll from this week’s U.S. strikes rises to at least 13, including 6 additional deaths reported by Tasnim with 3 pilots, 3 Basij on Lavan Island, 4 IRGC Aerospace Force in western Iran, Iran’s Tuesday civilian toll 18 killed and 108 wounded per health minister Mohammad-Reza Zafarghandi — Reuters, September 3, 2026.

Iranian Red Crescent formally asks ICC to investigate U.S. strike on wedding at Kuhestak in Sirik County as war crime, 9:30 p.m. Tuesday local time strike, 4 dead including 2 women and 2 children ages 4 and 16, 67 wounded — Al Jazeera, September 3, 2026.

ICE officer Christian Castro federally indicted for making false statements about shooting Venezuelan immigrant, voluntary surrender, Friday federal court appearance, Minnesota state charges pending, first federal charge against ICE officer for on-duty conduct during Trump immigration enforcement operations — CNN, September 3, 2026. Associated Press via Newser, September 3, 2026.

Ukraine naval drone strike on Russian vessel Nefrit at Sochi port, oil depot fire in central Sochi, possible explosion near Pantsir air defense system in Sirius, Ukrainian General Staff reports 121 Russian drones and one missile fired at Ukraine overnight September 4, Russian daily losses 1,440 troops and 77 artillery systems — Kyiv Independent, September 4, 2026. Kyiv Post, September 4, 2026. RBC-Ukraine, September 4, 2026.

Russian Shahed drone strike on Coca-Cola bottling plant in Brovary, Kyiv region, September 3, Zelensky “clear Russian signal to America” quote in nightly address, 8th consecutive day of Russian attacks on Kyiv, 13 injured — Metro UK, September 4, 2026. Kyiv Independent, September 3, 2026.

ADP August 2026 private-sector employment increase of 38,000 jobs, slowest pace since January, Reuters survey expectation of 48,000, July upwardly revised to 46,000, wage and sector breakdowns — Reuters, September 2, 2026. July BLS nonfarm payrolls -23,000 — BLS Employment Situation Release, August 7, 2026.

Pacific Islands Forum joint statement backed by 17 of 18 members rebuking China July ICBM test into Pacific, Nauru dissent, 24-hour advance-notice demand, Palau host Surangel Whipps Jr., Beijing “malicious” hijack accusation — Reuters, September 4, 2026. Japan Times, September 4, 2026.

Judge Leonie Brinkema in E.D. Va. accepts behavioral remedies instead of ordering Google to divest AdX, third federal Big Tech antitrust remedies loss for the Justice Department, publisher 20% fee, detailed ruling due in 14 days — Reuters, September 2, 2026. New York Times, September 2, 2026.

South Korea reviewing military deployment options to support U.S. “freedom of navigation” campaign in Strait of Hormuz, Seoul told Washington in August it was willing to send naval ship and maritime patrol aircraft, presidential office says no final decision, European Union formally joins U.S.-led sanctions campaign on Iran — Business Times, September 4, 2026. CNBC, September 4, 2026.

Nepal flood death toll 1,252 with 4,216 still missing per government officials, Nepal-China combined toll passes 1,270 with more than 4,700 missing, 75 Americans still unaccounted for, PM Balendra Shah shifting from search and rescue to rehabilitation — ABC News, September 3, 2026. Al Jazeera, September 3, 2026.

Trump Truth Social post September 3 at 7:18 a.m. — “This is GREAT! Syria is pitching itself as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz” — trumpstruth.org/statuses/41492.

Corrections desk: come at me.

1 daily conference call.

1 dead nurse.

A 41-year-old man with the title Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and Homeland Security Advisor is directing the FBI, ICE, HHS, and the Defense Department by phone every morning, Saturdays included. He is personally allocating $170 billion in new homeland-security money. He sits inside the small group that clears every executive order before it reaches the president. On May 21, 2025, he demanded 3,000 immigration arrests a day inside ICE headquarters. On January 24, 2026, he posted about a dead American nurse as a would-be assassin and got the entire government to repeat it for 3 days before the president said no.

Steve Bannon, per NPR, jokingly calls him the prime minister. Kevin McCarthy calls him Trump’s brain. Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan’s new book calls him a master of concealment.

His name is Stephen Miller. He has 1 boss, 1 wife, 1 title, and effectively 6 cabinet portfolios. Regime Change put on the record what everyone inside the West Wing already knew.

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The 5 Things Regime Change Puts On The Record

Here is what Haberman and Swan put in writing.

1. Miller is, in the authors’ words, a master of concealment. He avoids putting requests in writing. He favors phone calls and quiet talks.

2. The division of labor between him and border czar Tom Homan was 1 sentence. Miller drove the policy; Homan made it happen.

3. His eruptions became legendary. In late February 2025 he threatened by phone to fire the entire senior leadership of ICE and DHS at once.

4. He wanted the writ of habeas corpus suspended. Staff Secretary Will Scharf put a warning in writing to the chief of staff against end-running the rule of law. The same reporting ran in the New York Times under Haberman and Swan’s bylines on June 15, 2026.

5. He used a carjacking photograph to prompt the executive order deploying the National Guard in Washington, D.C. He used the shooting of 2 Guard members by an Afghan national, 1 of whom died, to justify barring immigrants from 39 countries.

The Scharf item is the single most important sentence in the book about the shape of Miller’s power. Not because the writ of habeas corpus was suspended. Because it wasn’t. 1 staff secretary put a warning in writing, and Miller lost.

That is the ceiling. Not the Constitution. Not the cabinet. Not the courts. The ceiling is whoever is in the room when the president decides.

Minneapolis, And The Only Word That Ever Stopped Him

On January 7, 2026, federal forces killed a U.S. citizen named Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis. 17 days later, they killed a second U.S. citizen, Alex Pretti, an ICU nurse at a Minneapolis VA hospital. Video that surfaced later showed Pretti had been disarmed before he was shot and never reached for a weapon.

Miller posted about 3.5 hours after the shooting and called Pretti a would-be assassin. Vice President JD Vance amplified it. Kristi Noem repeated it. Border Patrol commander Gregory Bovino, who was running the operation, repeated it. Regime Change reports that Miller accused Renee Good of “domestic terrorism” and called Pretti “an assassin.” The word went out through the White House rapid response machine the way a talking point goes out in a campaign. Except there was no campaign, and the man they were talking about was a dead American nurse.

The following Monday, Trump sat down in the Oval Office with Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski for 2 hours. Homan and Miller were not in the room. The next day a reporter asked Trump whether Pretti had been an assassin. He said, “No.” Bovino was removed from the operation. Noem, defending herself when Axios reported she had driven the framing, told the outlet that everything she had done had been done at the direction of the president and Stephen.

That is the only moment I can find in the public record where a decision with Stephen Miller’s fingerprints on it got walked back by the president, in the president’s own words. Everything else has gone the other way.

The Portfolio Is Most Of A Government

Ashley Parker of the Atlantic laid out the portfolio on NPR. Immigration. Homeland security. Law enforcement. Foreign policy. Trade. Education. That is not a portfolio. That is most of a government.

When Waltz was pushed out as national security adviser and reporters asked whether Miller would take the job, Trump told the BBC, “Stephen is much higher on the totem pole than that.”

The mechanism that turns the portfolio into daily control is the morning call, Saturdays included, through which Miller directs the FBI, ICE, HHS, and the Defense Department. He repurposed the Homeland Security Council into what functions as a daily deportation operations center. Reuters reported he personally directs $170 billion in new homeland-security funding.

Parker’s most consequential observation on NPR was comparative. In the first Trump administration, DHS officials sometimes refused Miller’s directives, protected by then-Chief of Staff John Kelly. “Those constraints have since vanished.” He came back with them gone by design.

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America First Legal: The Shadow Cabinet On A Form 990

Reuters noticed it from the first day of the second term. Unlike most incoming senior aides, Miller “arrived with all his staff in place.” On the outside, waiting for him, was a legal shop he had built during the Biden years that doubled as his personnel pipeline.

America First Legal Foundation. Founded in 2021 as a 501(c)(3). Its officer roster reads like a shadow cabinet in advance. Gene Hamilton. Matt Whitaker. Mark Meadows. Russ Vought as treasurer. Blake Masters. Reed Rubinstein. Vought now runs the Office of Management and Budget. Hamilton rotated back to AFL from the White House Counsel’s office in June 2025. The nonprofit and the West Wing are staffed by the same names, in rotation.

Miller’s OGE Form 278e shows he took home more than half a million dollars from AFL in the 10 months before he walked back into the White House. NOTUS put his 2024 total above $567,000, including $175,000 in extra pay as he moved to the government. Campaign finance lawyer Brendan Fischer told NOTUS the facts “raise questions about whether these payments were a so-called ‘golden parachute.’” His White House salary is roughly a third of what AFL was paying him. And most of AFL’s 2024 revenue came through DonorsTrust, the donor-advised fund that lets original givers stay unnamed.

That is the money that built the plumbing. And it is Miller’s own signature on the disclosure.

The Other Billionaire In The Marriage

Katie Miller served as Elon Musk’s adviser and spokesperson at DOGE through the spring of 2025. She left government with Musk at the end of May and stayed on his payroll. She told Reuters in July, of Musk, “My paycheck still comes from him.”

In early June, Musk publicly floated impeaching Trump. Trump threatened Musk’s federal contracts. A senior White House official told CNN, “Katie being compensated by Elon is not advantageous for Stephen.” Another rebutted the premise: “Next to Susie, Trump trusts and depends on Stephen the most.” That is the ranking, from the White House itself. Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, then him.

Katie now hosts a podcast for conservative women. Her husband writes the immigration policy. Her paycheck, until recently, came from the president’s public antagonist. Nobody in that triangle has resigned.

The 3,000-A-Day Quota, Denied In A Letter To The Ninth Circuit

On May 21, 2025, Miller walked into ICE headquarters and told the room he wanted 3,000 immigration arrests a day. Roughly triple the pace at the time. Noem was there. ICE leadership was there. So were Corey Lewandowski and roughly 50 senior enforcement officials. Axios, the Guardian, and the Washington Examiner all reported it. A few days later, Miller went on Fox News and said the 3,000 number out loud, calling it a goal.

Then August came, and civil rights lawyers dragged the administration into federal court over roving immigration stops in Los Angeles. The story changed. In a Rule 28(j) letter to the Ninth Circuit, DOJ counsel told the court that no such quota existed. In district court, a government lawyer said, “Not to my knowledge, your honor.”

The Ninth Circuit noticed. The panel quoted DOJ’s denial. It quoted Miller on Fox. It wrote of tactics that “impermissibly cast suspicion on large segments of the law-abiding population.”

The deputy chief of staff was saying 1 thing on television. The Justice Department was writing the opposite to a federal appellate court. The mismatch was in Miller’s direction.

ICE deported 442,637 people between October 2024 and September 2025, less than half the 1 million a year Miller had promised. In July 2026, more than half of the people arrested that month had no criminal conviction or charge. By August 2026, the public arrest goal was 2,000 a day, per the Guardian. Miller’s private number in the ICE HQ room in May 2025 had been 3,000.

That is what the quota produced. And it is what the administration was denying to a federal appellate court while producing it.

The Case That Went To The Supreme Court And He Lost

Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia is a Salvadoran man who had a standing court order forbidding his return to El Salvador. On March 15, 2025, ICE put him on a plane to El Salvador’s CECOT prison anyway. The government later conceded, in its own word, that the removal was an administrative error.

The Supreme Court took the case. In its April 2025 per curiam order, the justices wrote that the removal was “therefore illegal” and directed the government to facilitate his release from Salvadoran custody. Justice Sotomayor, joined by Kagan and Jackson, would have denied the government’s application outright.

When Abrego Garcia came back, DOJ charged him with a crime. In May 2026, Federal Judge Waverly Crenshaw dismissed the case, finding the timeline “telling and forceful” evidence that the prosecution traced back to Abrego Garcia’s Maryland habeas petition. DOJ vowed to appeal, calling the ruling politics above public safety.

1 case in more than 442,000 removals made it to the Supreme Court. Miller lost it. The machine kept running.

The DHS Civil War And Who Actually Fell

By late 2025 the enforcement machine had split. Noem and Lewandowski ran the visible, aggressive side. Homan and Rodney Scott favored the boring version: more officers, more detention capacity, Border Patrol back on the border. Miller’s 3,000-a-day target was the accelerant. When the fallout from Minneapolis hit, Noem’s team pointed back at his quotas as the cause.

Here is the roster after the dust settled. Bovino, removed from Minneapolis. Lewandowski, gone. Noem, fired on March 5, 2026, after the killings of 2 American citizens in Minneapolis. Waltz, pushed out of the national security adviser role Trump told the BBC was beneath Miller.

Miller stayed.

The Closer

A sitting deputy chief of staff is running a morning call in which he directs the FBI, ICE, HHS, and the Defense Department. He is allocating $170 billion in new homeland-security funding. His signature is on a disclosure showing more than half a million dollars from a nonprofit whose donors are hidden and whose officers now sit in the cabinet and White House. His wife is on Elon Musk’s payroll. He walked into ICE headquarters and demanded 3,000 arrests a day, then went on Fox News and called it a goal, while the Justice Department wrote to a federal appellate court that no such quota existed. He posted about a dead American nurse as a would-be assassin, and got the vice president, the DHS secretary, and a Border Patrol commander to repeat it, and it took the president 3 days and a Monday meeting without him present to walk it back the next day with 1 word. “No.”

Bryan Lanza told the BBC why the president tolerates him. “Stephen Miller is critical to Trump’s psyche. Always go strong, never back down. He can always count on Stephen to support that position on any issue.”

Lindsey Graham told the BBC where it ends. “When the clock strikes 12 on the Trump era, there will be a few people walking out the door with Donald Trump. Stephen Miller will be in that group.”

Which means, unless the country decides otherwise, the prime minister leaves on his own timeline.

Stephen Miller is not a deputy chief of staff. He is a shadow head of government. The paperwork is on file. The book is on the record. The dead are named.

That is a thin ceiling to hang a country on.

The Honest Ask

I went full-time on this. That means I make more than the $280 a week I was making at the flower shop, enough to get kicked off SNAP last month, with Medicaid probably next. That is how the cliff works in this country. You clear it by a dollar and the floor disappears.

If you can afford $6 a month or $60 a year, this is the moment, and I would be grateful. If you can’t, I truly understand. Stay on the free list, read, argue with me, and share the work with the 1 person in your life who still thinks it’s “both sides.”

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Stephen Miller is running $170 billion, 6 cabinet portfolios, and a 3,000-a-day arrest goal. I am asking for $6 so I can keep writing about it from Kansas. That is the deal.

Tip jar: buymeacoffee.com/monicaandreasen

Sources:

Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump — Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, Simon & Schuster, June 23, 2026, 496 pages; Stuart Anderson, “Book Reveals Stephen Miller’s Control Of U.S. Immigration Policy,” Forbes, June 25, 2026 (forbes.com); Tunku Varadarajan, “Regime Change Review: The Not-So-Imperial Presidency,” Wall Street Journal, June 26, 2026; Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, “Frustrated by Courts, Trump Weighed Suspending a Constitutional Right,” New York Times, June 15, 2026, print date June 18, 2026 (nytimes.com).

Miller’s title, portfolio, and daily conference call — “How Far Does Stephen Miller’s Influence Extend In Trump’s White House,” NPR interview with Ashley Parker, January 11, 2026 (npr.org); “Stephen Miller Untouchable Force,” NBC News, 2026 (nbcnews.com); Bloomberg feature on Miller, January 9, 2026 (bloomberg.com); Reuters, “White House Aide Driving Trump’s Aggressive Immigration Agenda,” July 11, 2025; BBC profile of Miller (bbc.com); Politico West Wing Playbook, “It’s Stephen Miller’s Moment,” January 21, 2025; The Atlantic, Miller profile, January 2026 (theatlantic.com); The Atlantic, “DHS, ICE, and Minnesota,” January 2026.

Minneapolis, January 2026 — PBS NewsHour, “A Second U.S. Citizen Was Killed By Federal Forces In Minneapolis,” January 2026 (pbs.org); Axios, “Trump Officials Stick Terrorist Label On Americans Killed By DHS,” January 25, 2026; Axios, “Trump, Stephen Miller, Massacre, Minnesota Shooting,” January 27, 2026; The Guardian, “Stephen Miller, ICE, Minneapolis, Trump,” January 28, 2026 (theguardian.com); The Atlantic, “DHS, ICE, and Minnesota,” January 2026 (theatlantic.com).

The 3,000-a-day quota and enforcement numbers — Axios, “Immigration, ICE, Deportations, Stephen Miller,” May 28, 2025; The Guardian, “Trump ICE Arrest Quota,” May 29, 2025; Politico, “White House DOJ Immigration Quota Mismatch,” August 3, 2025; The Guardian, “Trump Administration Daily Quota Immigration Arrests,” August 3, 2025; Axios, “ICE Deportations U.S. Immigration Trump Biden 2025,” April 15, 2026; The Guardian, “Record Arrests, Deportations, Immigrants,” August 26, 2026.

Noem v. Abrego Garcia, No. 24A949 — Supreme Court of the United States per curiam order, April 10, 2025 (supremecourt.gov); Politico, “Judge Dismisses Criminal Case Against Kilmar Abrego Garcia,” May 22, 2026.

Money and America First Legal Foundation, EIN 86-2190372 — ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer, Form 990 filings 2021–2024 (projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/862190372); NOTUS, “Stephen Miller Financial Bonus White House America First Legal” (notus.org); NOTUS, “Trump Donors Trust America First Policy Institute Legal Foundation Donations”; Miller’s OGE Form 278e New Entrant Report, signed March 14, 2025 and certified June 6, 2025 (whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Miller-Stephen.pdf); index at ProPublica Trump Team Financial Disclosures.

Katie Miller — New York Times, “Stephen Miller Wife Trump Musk,” June 6, 2025 (nytimes.com); CNN, “Stephen Miller, Katie Miller, Musk, Trump Meltdown,” June 7, 2025; Reuters, “Trump Loyalist Katie Miller Crosses Battle Lines To Continue Work For Elon Musk,” July 18, 2025; Axios, “Katie Miller Leaves Elon Musk Podcast,” August 7, 2025.

DHS civil war, Noem firing, Lewandowski departure, and Mullin’s arrival — Politico, “After A Year Of Tensions With Noem, Homan Eyes Reset With Mullin,” March 12, 2026; Politico, “DHS, Lewandowski Left With Noem,” March 27, 2026; NPR, “Kristi Noem Homeland Security Fired,” March 5, 2026 (npr.org); Reuters, “Trump Taps U.S. Senator Mullin To Replace Noem As DHS Chief,” March 5, 2026 (reuters.com); The Atlantic, “DHS, ICE, and Minnesota,” January 2026.

Quotes attributed in this essay to Donald Trump, Steve Bannon, Kevin McCarthy, Newt Gingrich, Bryan Lanza, Lindsey Graham, Ashley Parker, Kristi Noem, and unnamed senior White House officials are drawn from the primary reporting cited above.

Every substantive claim in this essay is anchored to one of the above sources or to the primary court opinion, executive order, IRS 990 filing, or federal financial disclosure named in text. Where a source has hedged its language, I have tried to preserve that hedge rather than harden it. Corrections desk, come at me.

Trump had his crayons out again.

On Wednesday morning he posted this to Truth Social. Exact quote. Three question marks. Capital letters: “Now that we have it under USA control, should we change the name Hormuz Strait to TRUMP STRAIT???”

Six days ago he renamed Lake Ontario. Signed an executive order. Directed the Interior Department to update the U.S. Geographic Names Information System. Called it Lake America. Google Maps changed it for U.S. users the following Sunday. Canada is our neighbor and Canada did not ask.

So. Two things about the Strait of Hormuz post. One, we do not have the Strait of Hormuz under U.S.A. control. Two, Iran’s health minister Mohammad-Reza Zafarghandi said Wednesday that Tuesday’s U.S. strikes on Iran killed 18 people and wounded 108. Central Command has not addressed those numbers. Central Command is, at the moment, still “looking into” Tuesday’s strike on the wedding in Sirik, where a 4-year-old died.

A reporter asked Trump about the renaming at the White House a few hours later. His answer: “No, no ... it was just thrown out there.”

The man is bombing Iran and workshopping brand names for the strait he is bombing next to.

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The Count Iran Gave Us

The 18 and the 108 are Tuesday’s numbers, released Wednesday. Iran’s Foreign Ministry says the strikes hit “several civilian places and service infrastructure.” Iran’s health minister Mohammad-Reza Zafarghandi posted the count on Wednesday. Trump at the White House Wednesday: “It was a very heavy attack last night, and we’re prepared to do another one any time we want.”

Iran’s answer came from Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, on X: “Iran’s new strategy on the battlefield as well as in the fields of diplomacy and countering the economic siege will shatter your foundations.”

Kuwait’s army says it intercepted an Iranian missile-and-drone attack overnight. Two oil tankers were hit by “unknown projectiles” late Monday, August 31, in the strait — the Liberian-flagged Senegal Prosperity and the Saudi-flagged Sidr. Rockets to the port side, engine room, and ballast tank of the Senegal Prosperity. The crew is safe.

On the Sirik wedding, Central Command finally responded Wednesday. Their exact words: they are “looking into the reports” and the U.S. military “never targets civilians.” The wire copy out of China Daily/Xinhua now puts the toll at “at least 4 killed, dozens wounded.” Iran had it at 5 dead including a 4-year-old and 68 wounded. The difference between those two numbers is either arithmetic or a wire service.

The Navy Is Running Out Of Ships

The New York Times reported on Tuesday, which everyone missed because of the wedding, that Iranian attacks have “upended the Navy’s supply chain” in the Middle East. The Navy has 11 aircraft carriers total. The U.S. sent 4 to the Middle East for this war. There are now 2 carriers and 12 destroyers in-theater. The remaining carriers are in “lengthy repairs” that mean they will not deploy again for years.

Ships are being kept in the region “indefinitely.” The USS Abraham Lincoln finally left the Middle East on August 20 after a 274-day deployment. It is now in the Indian Ocean under Indo-Pacific Command, on its way home to San Diego. That deployment sits alongside 272 consecutive days at sea. Senate Armed Services Committee Democrats, led by Blumenthal (D-CT), sent a letter August 12 pressing the Pentagon on shortages of basic supplies, broken plumbing, and mental-health crises on the Lincoln during that record deployment.

Trump nominated acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao for the permanent job on Tuesday. 25 years in the Navy, former special operations officer, SEAL teams in Iraq and Afghanistan. He championed reinstating the servicemembers who refused the Biden-era COVID vaccine. Trump called him a “true WARRIOR.” For the Army Secretary opening created when Dan Driscoll quit on Monday, Semafor reports Pete Hegseth’s Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell is the top contender. Not locked yet.

So the Army has no secretary and the Navy has no ships. That is where we are on the third day of a shooting war.

The August Jobs Number Came Out And It Is Not Good

ADP Wednesday: 38,000 private-sector jobs added in August. Reuters poll had expected 48,000. It is the slowest pace of hiring since January. The Bureau of Labor Statistics comes out Friday.

The breakdown:

• Manufacturing lost 17,000 jobs

• Professional and business services lost 16,000

• Natural resources and mining lost 5,000

• Information lost 4,000

• Goods-producing overall lost 10,000

• The West lost 8,000 jobs

• Medium-size establishments (50 to 499 employees) added zero net jobs

Where the growth was: education and health services +45,000, leisure and hospitality +16,000, construction +12,000. Large employers (500+) added 34,000 of the 38,000 net gain. Small business added 20,000. Everything in the middle added nothing.

Base pay was up 3.2% year over year, gross pay up 4.7%. Both slowing. Oliver Allen at Pantheon Macroeconomics on the August number: “We would frame that healthier rise in employment in August, however, as partly making up for acute weakness over the previous few months.”

Manufacturing lost 17,000 American jobs in August while the U.S. Navy ran out of ships and the President of the United States wondered aloud whether we should rename the Strait of Hormuz. There is a connection between those three facts. It is not subtle.

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Two Hearings On The Docket Today

10 a.m. Boston. Judge Indira Talwani converts her August 27 temporary restraining order on the USPS mail-ballot rule into a preliminary injunction, or she does not. The TRO runs out around September 10. The Trump administration is expected to appeal to the First Circuit and then to the Supreme Court the same day. 24 states and D.C. are on the plaintiff side. Talwani’s August 27 opinion: “The court is unaware of, and no party has proffered, any delegation Congress has made that would permit the USPS to regulate election mail.”

61 days to November 3.

House Oversight, this morning. Leon Black’s deposition. Whether he shows: unconfirmed as of Wednesday night. He walked out of the June closed-door interview within an hour when they asked about the nondisclosure agreements he signed with women. James Comer has threatened contempt if Black skips today.

The 2021 review Apollo Global Management commissioned from the Dechert law firm found that Leon Black paid Jeffrey Epstein $158 million for tax and estate-planning advice from 2012 to 2017. Black settled with the U.S. Virgin Islands attorney general in 2023 for $62.5 million to prevent any future Epstein-related prosecution in the territory. Black told the committee in June: “I wish I had never met Epstein.”

“Tax and estate-planning advice” is doing a lot of work in that paragraph.

A Federal Judge Blocked Birthright Citizenship Again Yesterday

Wednesday, U.S. District Judge Deborah Boardman of Maryland issued a 35-page preliminary injunction blocking Trump’s newest executive order restricting birthright citizenship. This is the second Trump executive order on this that Boardman has blocked. Her February 2025 injunction against the first order was the one the Supreme Court took up on emergency grounds and lifted in June 2025 on narrow procedural grounds only, without addressing the constitutional question. Trump then issued a narrower version in August.

Judge Boardman on the narrower version: “This Court must, once again, preliminarily enjoin enforcement of the President’s most recent attempt to strip the right to citizenship from them.”

She called the new order “almost certainly unconstitutional as applied to the certified class,” and the Justice Department’s argument that this order is different from the last one “unpersuasive.” She said the administration was relying on a “distorted interpretation” of the Supreme Court’s June 2025 ruling.

The plaintiffs are CASA, Inc. and the Asylum Seeker Advocacy Project. Under normal conditions this would have been today’s lead.

Kyiv, Night Eight

Overnight into Thursday, Russia hit five regions: Odesa, Kyiv, Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr.

Odesa: 17 injured including 3 children. Russian strikes damaged apartments on floors 10 through 17 of a 21-story residential building. Kyiv region: 1 man hospitalized in Boryspil district. Khmelnytskyi: 1 man hospitalized with shrapnel wounds. Ternopil: two Shahed drones destroyed by air defense at 6:26 a.m. Kyiv time. Zhytomyr: civilian infrastructure destroyed Tuesday evening.

Ukraine is now hitting Russia back at scale. Eight Ukrainian drones destroyed on approach to Moscow overnight per Mayor Sergei Sobyanin. One dead, four injured in a Ukrainian drone strike on a passenger bus in the Belgorod region.

Nepal: 1,114 Dead

Wednesday 9 a.m. local time in Kathmandu, the National Disaster Management Authority posted the updated toll. 1,114 dead in Nepal. 3,916 still missing. 16 dead and 546 missing on the Tibet side per Xinhua. At least 4,070 people have gotten emergency medical treatment across the affected districts. 21,000 security personnel dispatched. 48 suspension bridges damaged, and Prime Minister Balendra Shah says 28 of them will have to be replaced.

75 Americans are still unaccounted for. 16 have reached safety, up from 14 on Tuesday.

Prime Minister Balendra Shah addressed the legislature Wednesday. He said the government is shifting from search, rescue, and relief distribution to “rehabilitation.” His line to the legislators: “This is not only the suffering of Rasuwa, Nuwakot and Dhading. It is a shared blow to the heart of the entire country.”

They are still finding bodies. They are also already trying to figure out how to rebuild bridges.

Also On The Wire

Trump endorsed Casey Askar (R) in Florida’s newly redrawn 22nd Congressional District against Democrat Pia Dandiya. Cook has it “Leans Republican.” The new district went 55-44 for Trump in 2024 but 51-48 for Biden in 2020. That is not two different districts; that is the same district four years apart. Republicans hold 20 of Florida’s 28 U.S. House seats; DeSantis signed the new map into law on May 4, drawn to try to add 4 more.

Chris Wright is in Caracas. Chevron announced Wednesday it will invest more than $7 billion in Venezuela over the next five years, adding two Orinoco Belt oilfields and more than doubling production from its Venezuelan joint ventures to about 600,000 barrels per day. Wright at the signing: “Today is a transformative day.” Italy’s Eni signed too. This is four days after Trump announced the Venezuela oil deal that gives the Pentagon a stake in the profits.

The Intercept and the Freedom of the Press Foundation moved in federal court Monday for a preliminary injunction to bar Trump from selling early access to his official Truth Social posts, most of them government announcements, to traders willing to pay six figures. That is not a phrase you should have to read in 2026.

The Pattern

The pattern is that Wednesday alone gave us: 18 dead in Iran, a joke about renaming an international strait after the President, 17,000 lost manufacturing jobs, a second court order blocking birthright citizenship, 8 Ukrainian drones over Moscow, and 1,114 Nepalis dead. Any one of those would have been the top of the front page five years ago.

Today, Thursday, September 3, we still have not gotten to noon.

There is a pattern to that too. The pattern is that when the President of the United States is bombing a country a second night in a row, the noise around it is designed to keep you from settling on any one number. 18 dead. 108 wounded. 4 or 5 or 6, depending on which wire covered the wedding. 4-year-old, definitely, because Iran’s own state wire named the child.

The point of the noise is that we all give up on the counting.

What Are We Going To Do About It

The Capitol switchboard is (202) 224-3121. Three things to say today:

1. That your senators publicly demand a briefing on the total civilian casualty count in Iran, both nights, plus a finding on the Sirik wedding.

2. That your House member sign the Massie-Khanna-Leger Fernández discharge petition on the Epstein Files Transparency Act II — same tool as the Slotkin-Caine casualty-reporting bill.

3. That your senators back the Blumenthal-led Senate Armed Services letter and Gallego’s push for a bipartisan Senate visit to the USS Abraham Lincoln.

Senate is still on recess until September 14. Their offices still answer the phones.

The Ask

Degreed journalist. 50 states, 65 countries. I quit the flower shop in July. I quit betting on myself a long time before that, and is me undoing it.

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PS:

1. Call the Capitol switchboard. (202) 224-3121.

2. Sign up for the newsletter if you have not.

3. Forward it to one person if you have.

4. Talwani at 10 a.m. in Boston.

5. Leon Black on House Oversight this morning. Or not.

Sources:

Iran health minister Mohammad-Reza Zafarghandi confirms 18 killed and 108 wounded in overnight US strikes, Trump “very heavy attack last night” quote, Trump proposed renaming Strait of Hormuz to “TRUMP STRAIT,” Central Command “looking into” the Sirik wedding, US military “never targets civilians,” Mohsen Rezaei quote on Iran’s strategy — China Daily / Xinhua, “Trump says US ready for more Iran strikes, denies plans to rename Hormuz,” September 3, 2026 (chinadailyasia.com).

Kuwait army intercepted Iranian missile-and-drone attack, additional wire coverage — NAMPA / AFP wire index, September 3, 2026 (nampa.org).

Tanker strikes on Senegal Prosperity and Sidr in Strait of Hormuz late August 31, damage to port side and engine room and ballast tank, no environmental impact, no casualties per UK Maritime Trade Operations — Ahram Online / AFP, “Two tankers hit by ‘unknown projectiles’ in Hormuz: Security firm,” September 1, 2026 (english.ahram.org.eg).

Iran’s “decisive operation” against U.S. targets, Iranian Foreign Ministry statement on “several civilian places and service infrastructure,” Revolutionary Guards spokesman Hossein Mohebi X post — Ahram Online / AFP, “Iran media says military launches ‘decisive operation’ against US targets,” September 1, 2026 (english.ahram.org.eg).

New York Times reporting on Navy supply-chain strain, 2 aircraft carriers and 12 destroyers in-theater, 11 total carriers, 4 originally deployed for war, ships kept in region “indefinitely,” carriers in “lengthy repairs” — cited in China Daily / Xinhua, September 3, 2026 (chinadailyasia.com).

Hung Cao nomination for Navy Secretary, 25 years in Navy, SEAL teams and special forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, championed reinstating COVID-vaccine refusers, “true WARRIOR” quote, USS Abraham Lincoln deployment — The Guardian, “Trump nominates loyalist Hung Cao to be permanent navy secretary,” September 1, 2026 (theguardian.com). USS Abraham Lincoln 274-day deployment ended August 20, 2026, carrier now in the Indian Ocean under Indo-Pacific Command en route to San Diego — militarnyi.com, August 24, 2026. Blumenthal-led SASC minority letter of August 12 and August 17 group letter with Sen. Reed and 12 other senators — Sen. Blumenthal official Senate release, August 17, 2026 (blumenthal.senate.gov). Gallego push for bipartisan Senate visit to USS Lincoln — NPR, “Sen. Ruben Gallego on handling of USS Lincoln conditions,” August 14, 2026 (npr.org). Driscoll resignation announced September 1, 2026 — NPR (npr.org).

Sean Parnell as top contender for Army Secretary, Semafor reporting on internal Pentagon lobbying — Political Wire, “Parnell Emerging as Top Contender for Army Secretary,” September 2, 2026 (politicalwire.com).

Pete Hegseth firing or blocking promotions of more than 80 generals and admirals, 10% of senior officer corps, more than half Black or women, 7 Army colonels pulled from two-star promotion list — New York Times, “Hegseth Targets 7 More Officers as His Frustrated Army Secretary Resigns,” September 1, 2026 (nytimes.com).

ADP August private-sector employment increase of 38,000 jobs, slowest pace since January, sector breakdown, manufacturing loss of 17,000, professional services loss of 16,000, education and health services gain of 45,000, regional and establishment-size breakdowns, base pay up 3.2% year-over-year and gross pay up 4.7% — ADP Media Center, “ADP National Employment Report: Private-Sector Employment Increased by 38,000 Jobs in August,” September 2, 2026 (mediacenter.adp.com). Reuters coverage of ADP release including Oliver Allen quote and Reuters survey expectation of 48,000 — Reuters, “US private payroll growth slows in August; factory orders rebound in July,” September 2, 2026 (reuters.com).

Judge Indira Talwani’s August 27 temporary restraining order on USPS mail-ballot rule, hearing scheduled for September 3 in Boston on preliminary injunction, “no delegation Congress has made” quote, 24 states and D.C. on plaintiff side, Supreme Court August 24 lifting of previous injunction on procedural grounds — Votebeat, “Everything you need to know about the status of Trump’s mail-voting restrictions for the midterms,” August 28, 2026 (votebeat.org). Additional coverage of Talwani’s August 31 denial of DOJ and USPS motions to lift the TRO — The Gateway Pundit, August 31, 2026 (thegatewaypundit.com).

Leon Black deposition scheduled September 3, House Oversight subpoenas, June walkout after refusing to answer NDA questions within an hour, transcript released July 17, “I wish I had never met Epstein” quote, Comer contempt threat — PBS NewsHour, “Leon Black walked out of an Epstein House committee interview — here’s what we know,” June 26, 2026 (pbs.org). $158 million paid to Epstein 2012–2017 for “tax and estate planning advice” per 2021 Dechert report commissioned by Apollo Global Management — CNN, “Apollo CEO Leon Black to step down following review of ties to Jeffrey Epstein,” January 25, 2021 (cnn.com). $62.5 million settlement with the U.S. Virgin Islands attorney general in 2023 — Reuters, “Leon Black pays settlement to U.S. Virgin Islands to avoid Epstein probe,” July 21, 2023 (reuters.com).

Judge Deborah Boardman’s 35-page preliminary injunction on Trump’s newest birthright-citizenship executive order, “This Court must, once again” quote, “unpersuasive” and “distorted interpretation” language, plaintiffs CASA and Asylum Seeker Advocacy Project, applying to children born after February 19, 2025 — Qazinform / AFP, “U.S. judge blocks Trump’s latest birthright citizenship restrictions,” September 3, 2026 (qazinform.com). NAMPA / AFP, “Judge blocks new Trump bid against birthright citizenship,” September 3, 2026 (nampa.org).

Russian overnight attack on five Ukrainian regions, Odesa 17 injured including 3 children, damage to 21-story residential building floors 10–17, Kyiv Boryspil and Khmelnytskyi and Ternopil casualties, Zhytomyr civilian infrastructure destroyed — RBC-Ukraine, “Russia strikes Odesa, Kyiv, Ternopil and Khmelnytskyi regions, leaving many injured,” September 3, 2026 (newsukraine.rbc.ua). Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed on approach to Moscow — Iz.ru, September 3, 2026 (en.iz.ru). Belgorod passenger-bus attack — Independent live blog, September 3, 2026 (independent.co.uk).

Nepal flood death toll 1,114 with 3,916 missing, Wednesday 9 a.m. local NDMA update, 16 dead and 546 missing on Tibet side per Xinhua, 4,070 people given emergency medical treatment, 21,000 security personnel dispatched, 48 suspension bridges damaged with 28 requiring replacement per PM Shah, 75 Americans unaccounted for and 16 reached safety, PM Balendra Shah “shared blow” quote, shift from search-and-rescue to rehabilitation — ABC News, “Nepal-Tibet flood death toll tops 1,100 as tens of thousands search for missing,” September 2, 2026 (abcnews.com).

Trump endorsement of Casey Askar in Florida’s 22nd Congressional District, redistricting by DeSantis and Republican legislature, 55-44 Trump margin in 2024 and 51-48 Biden margin in 2020, 20 of 28 Florida House seats held by Republicans — WLRN, “President Trump endorses Republican congressional candidate Casey Askar for Florida’s 22nd district,” September 3, 2026 (wlrn.org).

Chevron $7 billion Venezuela expansion, two additional Orinoco Belt oilfields, production target of 600,000 barrels per day within five years, signing ceremony with Delcy Rodriguez and Chris Wright, Eni also signing — CNBC, “Chevron to expand Venezuela operations through $7 billion investment,” September 2, 2026 (cnbc.com). Al Jazeera, “US’s Chevron, Italy’s Eni to expand oil projects in Venezuela,” September 3, 2026 (aljazeera.com). Wright “transformative day” quote — Isla Public Radio, September 3, 2026 (islapublic.org).

The Intercept and Freedom of the Press Foundation preliminary-injunction motion in the Southern District of New York to bar Trump from selling paid early access to Truth Social posts including government announcements — Freedom of the Press Foundation, “FPF seeks order to stop Trump from monetizing official statements,” September 1, 2026 (freedom.press).

Corrections desk: come at me.

Good Wednesday morning! There was a wedding Monday night in a place called Kuhestak, on the Iranian coast of the Strait of Hormuz. The United States military dropped ordnance on the house where the wedding was happening. The Iranian Red Crescent counted 5 dead and 50 wounded. Mehr identified a 4-year-old among the dead. IRNA came back later and said 68 wounded. Central Command has addressed the air-defense sites, the radars, the maritime assets, the mine-laying capabilities and the communications sites. Central Command has not addressed the wedding.

Trump announced the strikes on Truth Social while they were still landing. He called them “large and powerful.” Later on the same platform he added this: “I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing. They are just playing out the inevitable. When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?”

He posted that the same morning a 4-year-old was in the casualty count.

The Pentagon Just Fired 10% Of Its Senior Officer Corps

While that was happening in Iran, the New York Times published the number we have been circling for two weeks. Pete Hegseth has now fired or blocked the promotion of more than 80 U.S. generals and admirals. That is about 10% of the senior officer corps of the United States military. More than half of the officers he has removed are Black, women, or both.

In the last few days specifically, he pulled 7 Army colonels off the two-star promotion list the promotion board sent up. Of the 7, 2 are Black and 2 are women. This is the same list Gen. Dan Caine wrote his letter about on August 31, the letter Pete Hegseth still has not signed as of the time I am writing this. This is also the fight that made Dan Driscoll drive from North Carolina to Gen. Randy George’s house on Sunday and walk in the front door and quit the Army Secretary job on Monday.

The Times reporting is clear on the reason for the purge. It is not job performance. It is that Hegseth wants a senior officer corps aligned with his personal politics.

There are 80 general and admiral positions in the United States military. They are the ones who plan wars, run wars and stop wars. The country is in a shooting war with Iran. This week, the Secretary of Defense used the middle of that war to remove the people who look wrong to him from the promotion list.

Iran Fired Back Overnight

Within hours of the U.S. strikes, Iran fired 13 ballistic missiles at Prince Hassan Air Base and a U.S. Marines base in Jordan. Jordan’s air defenses got 10 of them. Three landed in remote areas. No casualties in Jordan. Iranian drones were intercepted over Bahrain and Kuwait. The IRGC also says its ground forces hit U.S. bases in Erbil, Iraq, and killed “several” U.S. personnel. Two U.S. officials told Reuters and Al Jazeera the casualty claims are false. Iraq and the United States have not confirmed anything about Erbil either way.

Oil closed Tuesday up more than $4 a barrel. Five-week high.

Reuters also reported, quietly, two sources saying the Minab strike from the first day of this war — the one that killed 160 people at a girls’ school — may have been the result of the United States using outdated targeting data. The Pentagon has not released a finding on Minab. Sirik will get the same treatment.

There is a Central Command press release about the shipping lanes. There is not one about the 4-year-old.

Nepal Is Now 1,003 Dead

While all of that was happening, Nepal’s National Disaster Management Authority posted the Tuesday afternoon update. 1,003 confirmed dead. 3,916 missing. Add the Tibet side and it is 1,019 dead, 4,462 missing. The State Department confirmed no American deaths yet, but about 75 Americans are missing near the Nepal-Tibet border. 14 have reached safety. A U.S. rescue team is being sent to search the hydropower tunnels. The Nepali Army has more than 9,200 troops working across Rasuwa, Dhading, Chitwan and Nawalparasi East.

In Chitwan alone, a police inspector named Anil Thapa said 199 decomposed bodies had already been buried in one temporary burial ground. About 80 more were going in on Monday.

At the police hospital in Kathmandu, families are giving DNA samples because the bodies are too far gone to identify by sight.

The UN Said 1.5 Is Gone

This morning, the UN Environment Programme in Nairobi published the annual overshoot report. The headline number is that the 1.5°C threshold set at Paris in 2015 will be crossed “within the next few years.” Under the most optimistic scenario, where every country actually hits its pledges, warming peaks at 1.8°C around mid-century. Under current policy, it hits 2.6°C by 2100.

The report is explicit on one line. “There are no good outcomes above 1.5C.”

The overshoot period, meaning the period during which the Earth is hotter than 1.5°C, is expected to last “many, many decades.” Every five-year delay in cutting emissions adds at least 0.1°C to the peak. The specific impacts named in the report include possible loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet, possible loss of the Greenland ice sheet, and possible shutdown of the Atlantic circulation system that keeps Europe warm. The report says some places will become “more or less uninsurable or even uninhabitable.”

The Associated Press wire copy about the UN report links it directly to Nepal. Bedrock under a glacier gave way on August 26. The Himalayas are melting from underneath, not just from on top. This was the specific thing the report warned about, on the specific morning it was actually happening downstream.

Kyiv, Night Seven

Russia fired Iskander missiles and 174 drones at Ukraine overnight into Wednesday. Odesa took a high-rise, schools, a textile factory and the Orlivka ferry crossing on the Romanian border. Kyiv region, 2 injured. Homes and warehouses damaged. This is the seventh straight night.

Tuesday’s numbers, which we ran yesterday, were 12 dead in and around Kyiv, including one Indian citizen. 6 of the 12 were Ukrzaliznytsia state railway workers killed when a ballistic missile hit their depot. 3 children were among the wounded.

Putin also gave a speech Tuesday. He said Russia is not attacking Ukraine’s “military-political leadership” because Russia will need Ukrainian officials to negotiate with. In the same speech he rejected talks and called the Ukrainian leadership “terrorists.” Both statements are in the same speech. He is not sure which one he wants to be true yet.

Talwani Tomorrow, Boston, Morning Docket

There is one federal judge in Boston named Indira Talwani standing between the Trump administration’s Postal Service rule restricting mail-in voting and the ballots states are about to start dropping in the mail. Her August 27 temporary restraining order runs about 14 days, which puts the expiration right around September 10. Tomorrow morning, September 3, in Boston, she holds the preliminary-injunction hearing that decides whether the TRO turns into a full block through the midterms.

70 days out from November 3. If she extends, the ballots go out under the old rules. If she does not, they go out under the new rules. That is the entire story of the 2026 midterms sitting on one docket in one courtroom in Boston tomorrow morning.

The Senate is not back until September 14. Nothing else is going to happen between now and then that changes the arithmetic here.

Leon Black Is Also On The Schedule Tomorrow

House Oversight has Leon Black scheduled for a videotaped, transcribed deposition tomorrow morning, September 3, on the Epstein investigation. He has not confirmed he will show. James Comer has already threatened contempt.

On Monday, Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky, the one who just lost his primary to a Trump-backed challenger, stood on the House floor and named Leon Black and David Copperfield as “co-conspirators” of Jeffrey Epstein. Massie also said the Department of Justice is still sitting on more than 3 million Epstein files, nearly a year after Trump signed the Epstein Transparency Act. He announced a discharge petition with Ro Khanna and Teresa Leger Fernández to force a floor vote on the Epstein Files Transparency Act II. That is the same procedural move I flagged yesterday for the Slotkin-Caine casualty-reporting bill. There is now more than one discharge petition worth watching this month.

Alan Dershowitz is on the Oversight schedule too. He told the Guardian on Tuesday that he was “working on” his appearance. I don’t know what that means. I am not sure Alan Dershowitz knows what it means.

Also On The Wire

DHS says it arrested 2,197 people in New York. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin held a press conference in New York City on Monday announcing something called “Operation Rotten Apple.” Late July through late August. He said Zohran Mamdani and Kathy Hochul refused to cooperate. Hochul held her own press conference the same day. Her line: “Release the 87 million dollars you owe us, because if you don’t release the counterterrorism funding, you’re betraying every family that lost someone on 9/11.” DHS is currently withholding 40% of New York’s counterterrorism funding — $87 million — 25 years after 9/11 was the reason DHS existed at all.

G20 finance summit ended in Asheville with no joint statement. China vetoed the text. Scott Bessent on the record: “The country with the world’s largest and unsustainable current account surplus, the People’s Republic of China, was the dissenter.” The 19 other countries, Russia included, signed onto the U.S. statement. Bessent held a one-on-one on the sidelines with Russia’s Anton Siluanov to talk about Trump’s Ukraine peace plan. Germany’s finance minister told Siluanov to end the war. Europe refused to be in the group photo with Russia. China’s trade surplus this year hit a record $1.2 trillion.

USS Abraham Lincoln pulled into a Thai port after 270 consecutive days at sea. We ran the extended-deployment source packet on that carrier last month. That deployment is what the sailors’ families have been trying to get someone to notice since April.

Chevron is about to announce an expansion in Venezuela. Marco Rubio told Anadolu that Energy Secretary Chris Wright is going to Caracas “in the coming days” to make the announcement. Same Chris Wright who told Congress the DOE grant-freeze memo was “bullshit.”

Kansas certified the primary. 650,383 votes cast, second-highest primary turnout in state history. 49,139 mail ballots returned out of 64,070 sent. Voter registration open through October 13. General election November 3, same day as the ballots Judge Talwani is deciding about tomorrow.

The Pattern

Yesterday I wrote that the Tuesday roundup was full of stories that would have been week-long stories 18 months ago and were now the daily wire. Wednesday is worse. Wednesday has three separate stories that would each have been the biggest thing in the world in 2024:

The United States and Iran are exchanging live fire across four countries and there is a 4-year-old in the casualty count.

The Secretary of Defense fired 10% of the general and admiral corps of the U.S. military in the middle of a war, and the majority of the officers he fired are Black or women.

The UN issued the “1.5 is gone” report on the same morning Americans are on the missing list from a Himalayan glacial collapse that already killed a thousand people.

They landed on the same Wednesday. They are all connected. When you say you have “almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing,” a 4-year-old at a wedding is what that sentence means in practice. When you spend a Tuesday afternoon pulling Black and female colonels off a two-star promotion list while the war they might have to fight is escalating, that is what “aligned with my views” means in practice. When you spend the same week telling every federal agency to walk away from climate science, the report you refused to read is the report about the country you are already sending rescue teams to.

The volume is turned up on purpose. The point is that no single story lands. But three of them landed today.

What Are We Going To Do About It

The Capitol switchboard is (202) 224-3121. It works from anywhere. You do not have to know your representative’s name; the operator will connect you.

Three specific things to ask for today:

1. That your senators publicly demand the Senate Armed Services Committee subpoena Pete Hegseth on the general-officer purge, with the promotion board’s original recommendations attached.

2. That your House member sign the Massie-Khanna-Leger Fernández discharge petition on the Epstein Files Transparency Act II.

3. That your senators sign the companion to Gen. Caine’s August 31 letter on federal troops in American cities — the one Hegseth has now been silent on for 14 days.

The Senate is not back until September 14. Their staff answer the phones anyway. The Capitol switchboard runs from 9 a.m. Eastern to 5 p.m. Eastern.

The Ask

Degreed journalist. 50 states, 65 countries. I quit the flower shop in July. I quit betting on myself a long time before that, and this newsletter is me undoing it.

Subscriptions:

• $6 a month

• $60 a year, which works out to about $1.15 a week

• $120 founding

  Subscribe now

If you are already a subscriber, forward the newsletter to one person today. That is worth more to me than the money.

PS:

1. Call the Capitol switchboard. (202) 224-3121.

2. Sign up for the newsletter if you have not.

3. Forward it to one person if you have.

4. Tomorrow morning, Boston, watch the Talwani ruling.

5. Tomorrow morning, Washington, watch whether Leon Black shows up.

Sources:

US Central Command strike wave on IRGC targets near the Strait of Hormuz, Trump Truth Social post on strikes and “when are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight” — Reuters, “US and Iran exchange attacks as lull in war appears over,” September 2, 2026 (reuters.com). Al Jazeera live blog, “Iran war live: Tehran claims attacks on US bases in Gulf, Jordan,” September 2, 2026 (aljazeera.com). NPR, “U.S. military strikes Iran, Trump vows more for Tehran’s retaliation,” September 2, 2026 (npr.org).

Sirik wedding strike, Kuhestak location, 5 dead including 4-year-old, 50 to 68 wounded, Iranian Red Crescent and Mehr and IRNA counts — Al Jazeera, “Iran war updates: US launches new strikes, kills 4 at Sirik,” September 1, 2026 (aljazeera.com). Al-Monitor, “US launches new barrage of strikes on Iran around Strait of Hormuz,” September 1, 2026 (al-monitor.com). India Today, “5 killed, 50 injured as fresh US airstrikes hit wedding in Iran,” September 2, 2026 (indiatoday.in).

Jordan interception of 10 of 13 ballistic missiles, Bahrain and Kuwait drone interceptions, IRGC Erbil claim, no U.S. casualties per two U.S. officials — Reuters, September 2, 2026 (reuters.com). Al Jazeera live blog, September 2, 2026 (aljazeera.com). Shafaq News, “IRGC says it struck US bases in Erbil,” September 2, 2026 (shafaq.com).

Minab girls’ school strike outdated-targeting-data reporting — Reuters, September 2, 2026 (reuters.com).

Oil closed up more than $4 per barrel to five-week high — ABC News Australia, “US launches fresh strikes on Iran around Strait of Hormuz,” September 2, 2026 (abc.net.au).

New York Times reporting that Pete Hegseth has fired or blocked promotions of more than 80 U.S. generals and admirals, about 10% of senior officer corps, more than half Black or women, 7 Army colonels pulled from two-star promotion list including 2 Black and 2 women — summarized in Infobae/EFE, “Purga en el Pentágono: Hegseth ha destituido al 10% de altos mandos militares, según NYT,” September 2, 2026 (infobae.com).

Trump floats Sean Parnell for Army Secretary and Hung Cao for Navy Secretary — Anadolu Agency, “Morning Briefing Sept. 2, 2026,” September 2, 2026 (aa.com.tr).

Nepal flood death toll 1,003 with 3,916 missing, combined Nepal-Tibet toll of 1,019 dead and 4,462 missing, 75 Americans missing and 14 reached safety, 279 rescued from hydropower tunnels, 9,200 Nepali Army troops deployed, Chitwan mass-burial count of 199 with 80 more Monday, Kathmandu police-hospital DNA sampling — ABC News, “Death toll tops 1000 after Nepal flooding, as search continues,” September 1, 2026 (abcnews.com). Guardian Australia, “Afternoon Update: Global heating forecast to hit at least 1.8C, DNA tests to help identify Nepal flood victims, and shark drones,” September 2, 2026 (theguardian.com).

UN Environment Programme report on 1.5°C threshold, 1.8°C peak under optimistic scenario, 2.6°C under current policy, “there are no good outcomes above 1.5C” quote, overshoot period “many, many decades,” 0.1°C added per five-year delay, potential Atlantic circulation shutdown, West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet loss, “uninsurable or even uninhabitable” quote, direct link to Nepal — Phys.org via Associated Press, “Global warming will exceed limit, UN says in a report that maps path to get back below danger zone,” September 2, 2026 (phys.org).

Russia overnight attack on Ukraine with Iskander missiles and 174 drones, Odesa high-rise and Orlivka ferry crossing strike, Kyiv region 2 injured — RBC-Ukraine war live wire, September 2, 2026 (newsukraine.rbc.ua). Tuesday’s Kyiv toll of 12 dead including one Indian citizen, 6 Ukrzaliznytsia railway workers killed at depot, 3 children wounded, 350 emergency workers — Ahram Online / Associated Press, “A sixth straight day of Russian strikes hammers Kyiv, killing at least 12,” September 1, 2026 (english.ahram.org.eg). Putin negotiators quote and “terrorists” rejection of talks — Anadolu Agency, “Putin says Moscow not attacking Ukraine’s political leadership because it will need negotiators from Kyiv,” September 2, 2026 (aa.com.tr).

Judge Indira Talwani August 27 TRO on USPS mail-in voting rule, September 3 preliminary-injunction hearing in Boston — PBS NewsHour, “Judge again blocks Trump mail ballot executive order in ruling that’s likely to be swiftly appealed,” August 28, 2026 (pbs.org). Votebeat, “Federal judge places new freeze on Trump mail-ballot rule,” August 28, 2026 (votebeat.org). Jurist, “US judge blocks USPS rule restricting mail-in voting ahead of midterm elections,” August 29, 2026 (jurist.org).

Leon Black House Oversight deposition scheduled September 3, contempt threat, Thomas Massie floor statement naming Black and David Copperfield as “co-conspirators” of Epstein and discharge-petition announcement of Epstein Files Transparency Act II, Alan Dershowitz on Wednesday schedule — The Guardian, “Republican calls Leon Black and David Copperfield co-conspirators of Epstein,” September 1, 2026 (theguardian.com). Politico Live, “Comer threatens Black with contempt,” August 18, 2026 (politico.com).

DHS “Operation Rotten Apple” arrests of 2,197 immigrants across New York State, Markwayne Mullin New York City press conference, Kathy Hochul $87 million counterterrorism funding quote, 40% of New York counterterrorism funding withheld — People’s Daily / Xinhua, “U.S. Homeland Security official say over 2,000 immigrants arrested in New York State,” September 2, 2026 (en.people.cn).

G20 finance summit in Asheville ending without joint statement, China vetoing text, Bessent quote on China as dissenter, U.S. statement supported by other 19 members including Russia, Bessent-Siluanov one-on-one, Germany’s Klingbeil rebuke of Russia, European group-photo refusal, $1.2 trillion Chinese trade surplus — English NV.ua via Bloomberg, “China blocks G20 economic communique over trade dispute — Bessent,” September 2, 2026 (english.nv.ua).

USS Abraham Lincoln arriving at Thai port after 270 consecutive days at sea — Guardian Australia, September 2, 2026 (theguardian.com).

Chevron Venezuela expansion, Chris Wright Caracas visit “in the coming days,” Marco Rubio confirmation — Anadolu Agency, September 2, 2026 (aa.com.tr).

Kansas State Board of Canvassers certification of 2026 primary, 650,383 votes cast (second-highest primary turnout), 49,139 mail ballots returned of 64,070 sent, 223,714 advance ballots, House District 42 audit, Sedgwick County hand recount, voter registration open through October 13 — Kansas Secretary of State press release, “State Board of Canvassers Certify 2026 Primary Election Results,” September 1, 2026 (kssos.org).

Corrections desk: come at me.

Good Tuesday morning! In some alternate universe I am on that same balcony in Portugal I was watching yesterday, ignoring the news for the second morning in a row, deciding between the ferry to the Azores and a second pastel de nata. In this one I am at my desk in rural Kansas at 3:42 a.m. with 14 tabs open, trying to figure out how to explain to you that between about 6 p.m. Central yesterday and about 3 a.m. Central this morning, the United States Army lost its civilian leader, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs had to put in writing that he will not use the military to seize ballots in November, the Supreme Court said the president can keep building his $400 million ballroom without Congress, Iran fired 8 ballistic missiles at U.S. bases in Jordan, the president answered with an AI-generated video of an attack that did not happen, Russia hit Kyiv for the sixth night in a row and killed at least 11 people including 3 children at a train depot, and Leon Black is sitting down under oath in front of the House Oversight Committee on Thursday.

No standalone essay today. There is too much moving to keep the reader on one story. Below is the receipt. Let’s go.

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The Army Secretary Quit

Around 6 p.m. Central time yesterday, the civilian in charge of the United States Army — the branch fighting the Iran war and staffing the two bases in Jordan the Iranian missiles were aimed at — walked into the White House, told the president he was done, and handed in his resignation.

His name is Dan Driscoll. He has been in the job since February 2025.

He is leaving because Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth kept firing senior Army generals without asking him. The last straw, per reporting in the Wall Street Journal, NOTUS, and the New York Times, was Hegseth pushing out 4 Army officers who had been up for their first star, on top of firing the Army chief of staff Gen. Randy George in April while Driscoll was on vacation. Driscoll found out about George on the drive home and went straight from the airport to Gen. George’s house.

The White House statement said Driscoll had been “highly effective in advancing President Trump’s agenda” and that “the United States Army is more powerful than ever thanks to his work alongside the Commander-in-Chief and Secretary of War.” I would gently note that people who are highly effective at advancing the president’s agenda do not usually resign at dinnertime on the Monday before Congress comes back.

What is left in the room:

• No Senate-confirmed Secretary of the Army.

• No Senate-confirmed Army Chief of Staff. That job is being filled on an acting basis by Gen. Christopher LaNeve.

• Two ongoing wars.

• The name being floated for the next Secretary of the Army is Sean Parnell, who is currently the Pentagon’s press guy.

That is the civilian chain of command over the United States Army on the Tuesday morning after Iran shot 8 ballistic missiles at us.

The Letter Hegseth Would Not Sign

Two weeks ago Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan wrote a letter to Gen. Dan Caine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and to Secretary Hegseth. It asked them for a written commitment to one sentence: the Department of Defense will not send federal troops to polling places or seize ballots in November.

She asked for an answer by Friday.

Yesterday the Associated Press got Caine’s answer. In his own handwriting. On Joint Chiefs letterhead. Three quotes, in order:

“The Joint Force has no plans to send Federal military personnel or Federalized members of the National Guard to polling places during the 2026 elections.”

“Likewise, the Joint Force has no plans to use such personnel to seize ballots, voting machines, or other election-related material.”

“I have neither received nor anticipate receiving any unlawful order concerning the role of the Joint Force in the upcoming November 2026 midterm elections.”

Every previous Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and every previous Defense Secretary Slotkin listed by name in the letter — Milley, Brown, Austin, Esper — made the same commitment before an election, in writing, without incident. It was the kind of thing that used to get signed on the way to lunch.

The current Secretary of War did not answer. He had 13 days.

The Ballroom Cleared The Court, 5-4

The Supreme Court, at some point Monday afternoon, voted 5 to 4 to let the president keep building his $400 million ballroom on the concrete pad where the East Wing of the White House used to stand. The court’s stated reason for lifting the lower-court injunction is that the Trump administration would suffer “irreparable harm” if construction stopped.

Congress has never appropriated a dollar for the ballroom. A George W. Bush appointee — Senior District Judge Richard Leon — ruled back in March that construction “must stop until Congress authorizes its completion.” The D.C. Circuit agreed with him in August. The Supreme Court, yesterday, said none of that matters, because the historic preservation group that sued “probably lacks the legal authority to challenge the project.”

Which is a fancy way of saying: nobody has standing to stop him.

$400 million. No congressional authorization. No public accounting of who is writing the checks. And now no court order in the way.

If any of you can locate the standing that a private citizen has to sue over the construction of a private ballroom on the White House grounds using undisclosed money, please write to me. I would very much like to read your brief.

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Iran Fired 8. The President Posted A Fake Video.

On Sunday, U.S. Central Command hit two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island inside the Strait of Hormuz. Early Monday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired 8 ballistic missiles at two U.S. air bases inside Jordan — King Hussein and Al Azraq. All 8 were intercepted after entering Jordanian airspace. No injuries. No damage.

President Trump spoke about it Monday from Asheville, North Carolina. He said the United States would hit Iran “hard.” He said the exchange was “limited and contained.” He said U.S. air defenses had knocked down every Iranian missile capable of doing damage. He said the new sanctions were working.

Then, sometime later Monday, from his Truth Social account, he posted two AI-generated videos showing Iran’s main oil export terminal at Kharg Island exploding.

No such attack took place.

The Iranian foreign ministry called the post “laughable.” Vice President JD Vance told reporters the president was “sending a message” through the social-media posts. Iran’s actual elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, called for dialogue.

Meanwhile, in Cape Town, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters at the G20 that starting today, the Treasury will roll out new secondary sanctions targeting Iranian banks on a weekly schedule. Every Monday. Until further notice. This is our foreign policy now — one AI-generated explosion, one bank sanction, on a subscription cycle.

Kyiv, Night Six

Overnight into Tuesday, Russia fired 218 drones and missiles at Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force shot down or suppressed 199. That leaves 19 that got through.

At a Ukrainian Railways depot in Kyiv’s Darnytskyi district, 6 railway workers were killed. At least 11 people were killed across Kyiv and the surrounding oblast in total. More than 18 were injured. 3 of the wounded in Kyiv itself were children.

It was the sixth straight night Russia has hit Kyiv on this scale.

There has been no statement from the White House on the Kyiv strikes as of the time I am writing this.

Nepal, Six Days In

The glacial collapse in the Himalayas on August 26 has now killed 987 people in Nepal, per the Al Jazeera update this morning. 3,916 more are missing, 583 of them foreigners. In China, on the other side of the collapse, 16 are dead and 546 are missing, 261 of them foreigners. Combined across the border: 1,003 dead. 4,462 missing.

More than 11,000 have been rescued. Nepal’s Prime Minister Balendra Shah said 279 workers had been pulled out of hydropower project tunnels; the original estimate was that more than 900 workers were missing inside them.

$42 million in international aid has reached Nepal so far. India and China are helping build Bailey bridges into the cutoff valleys.

Scientists studying satellite imagery of the collapse zone said this morning that the trigger appears to have been the failure of the bedrock underneath a glacier — the ground under the ice, not the ice itself, gave way.

There has been no statement from the White House.

Talwani Is Still The Wall

There is one federal judge in Boston named Indira Talwani standing between the Trump administration’s Postal Service rule restricting mail-in voting and the ballots states are about to start dropping in the mail.

She issued a temporary restraining order on August 27 blocking key provisions of the USPS rule. It runs 14 days. The hearing to decide whether to convert it into a preliminary injunction is Thursday, September 3, in Boston.

Congress could theoretically weigh in before Thursday. The Senate is not back in session until September 14. So Congress will not be weighing in.

One judge. One courtroom. Thursday morning.

The 170 Million Dollar Man Is Still Sitting Down Thursday

Two days from now, in the same city where the ballroom ruling came down and about half a mile from the Capitol switchboard I keep asking you to call, Leon Black sits down in a room in front of the House Oversight Committee under oath, on camera, on the record, and has to answer for a paper trail Sen. Ron Wyden has been chasing on Senate Finance Committee letterhead for 4 years.

That paper trail: $170 million wired from Leon Black to Jeffrey Epstein between 2012 and 2017. $62.5 million paid by Black to the government of the U.S. Virgin Islands in January 2023 to make a criminal investigation go away — a settlement in which Black admitted the money he paid Epstein was used to fund sex trafficking, and which gave criminal immunity to his own lawyers and agents. A birthday poem Black wrote in Ghislaine Maxwell’s book for Jeffrey Epstein’s 50th, asking whether “Birds and Bucks, Cs and Ms” were Epstein’s key, signed Love and kisses, Leon. $10 million routed through what Wyden calls a sham charity, in a plan Epstein’s own lawyer described in an email as designed to “avoid public disclosure” and “maximize deductions.” A walk-out of a friendly interview in June the moment the committee asked about non-disclosure agreements.

Black’s lawyers spent the summer trying to make Thursday go away. Chairman James Comer said no in writing on August 18 and put contempt on the table.

I wrote the full ledger yesterday. It is here: The 170 Million Dollar Man — Deposition Week.

Read it, share it, and forward it to one friend who thinks the Epstein story is old news. It is not old news. It is on the House Oversight schedule for Thursday morning.

Also On The Wire

North Dakota’s junk-food ban on SNAP takes effect today. As of this morning, SNAP recipients in North Dakota can no longer buy chocolate bars, licorice, candy bars, sweetened drinks with 5 grams or more of added sugar or any artificial sweetener that don’t contain at least 50% juice, or energy drinks with 65 milligrams or more of caffeine per 8 ounces. That makes 18 states restricting what SNAP recipients can put on the counter in 2026. The federal position, which used to be that SNAP recipients could buy the same food anyone else in line could buy, is quietly being unwound one waiver at a time.

Kansas Turnpike tolls go up today. First increase since 2022. The Kansas Turnpike Authority board approved it in the spring. It lands the same week the state’s summer SNAP EBT card mailings finished going out.

The Kansas State Board of Canvassers meets in Topeka today to certify the August 4 primary results. The board is the governor, the secretary of state, and the attorney general. Once they certify, the general-election candidate deadlines lock in, and the window closes on any last challenges in the 4 Kansas Congressional districts where the primary margins were under 500 votes.

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The Pattern

None of this is happening in one place, and that is the point. The Army loses its civilian leader. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs has to write a letter promising he will not use the military to seize ballots. The Supreme Court finds a way to let $400 million of unauthorized construction continue on federal ground. Iran fires 8 missiles at U.S. bases and the president answers with a fake video. Russia hits Kyiv for the sixth straight night and the White House says nothing. One federal judge in Boston is the last thing standing between a Postal Service rule and 100 million mail-in ballots.

Every one of these stories, taken alone, would have been a full week of front-page coverage 18 months ago. Today they are the Tuesday roundup.

That is not accidental. It is the volume being turned up on purpose, so that no one story lands.

What Are We Going To Do About It

Capitol switchboard: (202) 224-3121. Call your two senators and your representative before 10 a.m. eastern.

Three questions. One per office.

One. Who is the next Senate-confirmed Secretary of the Army, and when will the Armed Services Committee schedule the hearing? An acting Army Secretary during an active shooting war with Iran, on top of a fired chief of staff and an acting uniformed chief, is not a normal chain of command. Get an answer on the record.

Two. Will your senator sign a companion letter to Gen. Caine’s — publicly, on Senate letterhead — endorsing his written commitment that federal troops will not be sent to polling places in November? Yes or no. Get it on paper.

Three. Will your representative co-sponsor the discharge petition to force a floor vote on the War Powers Resolution that failed by 1 vote in the Senate on July 30? An 8-missile Iranian strike on U.S. bases while the White House posts AI-generated attack videos is exactly the situation the War Powers Resolution was written for. Yes or no.

If they will not answer, that is the answer.

The Ask

Degreed journalist. 50 states, 65 countries.

I quit the flower shop in July to write this every morning. I do the reporting. I write the copy. I answer every email. I chase every source.

$6 a month. $60 a year. $120 for founding members.

Subscribe now

The annual plan works out to about $1.15 a week. Less than a cup of coffee. About the price of a New York Times subscription for a fraction of the volume, and I answer my own inbox.

If you have been reading The Morning Receipt for free for weeks or months and you have the means, this is the moment. Independent journalism does not run on air. It runs on subscribers who decided the work was worth $6.

I am asking directly, because that is what independent means.

PS

1. Forward this to the friend who thinks “both sides” about federal troops at polling places.

2. If you are in a red state, print the Slotkin release with Caine’s exact quotes and hand it to your state legislator before Labor Day recess ends.

3. Thursday, September 3, 10 a.m. eastern. Leon Black, House Oversight Committee, live stream on the committee’s site. Set the reminder.

4. Same Thursday. Judge Talwani’s hearing in Boston on the mail-in ballot TRO. Set a second reminder. That is the ruling that decides whether October’s ballots go out.

5. Reply and tell me one story from your own state I should be covering. I read every reply.

Talk tomorrow.

Monica

Sources

Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resignation, chain-of-command context, and White House statement — Wall Street Journal, “Army Secretary Resigns After Months of Friction With Hegseth,” August 31, 2026 (wsj.com); NOTUS, “Army Secretary to Step Down After Months of Tension With Hegseth,” August 31, 2026 (notus.org); New York Times, “Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll Resigns as U.S. Military Grapples With Two Wars,” August 31, 2026 (nytimes.com); Military Times, “Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigns on short notice amid reported friction with Hegseth,” August 31, 2026 (militarytimes.com); Newser, “Army Secretary Dan Driscoll Resigns,” August 31, 2026 (newser.com); New York Post, “Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigns after long simmering tension with Pete Hegseth,” August 31, 2026 (nypost.com).

Gen. Dan Caine’s written commitment on federal troops at polling places and Hegseth’s non-response — Office of Sen. Elissa Slotkin, “ICYMI: General Caine Responds to Slotkin, Assures No Plans to Send Troops to Polls in November — Hegseth Silent,” August 31, 2026 (slotkin.senate.gov); Slotkin’s August 18, 2026 letter to Caine (slotkin.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/081826-Slotkin-Letter-to-Caine.pdf); Associated Press reporting cited in Slotkin’s release.

Supreme Court 5-4 order permitting continued construction of the White House ballroom without congressional authorization — Wall Street Journal, “Supreme Court Allows Trump to Keep Building White House Ballroom,” August 31, 2026 (wsj.com); SCOTUSblog, “Supreme Court allows White House ballroom construction to continue for now,” August 21, 2026 (scotusblog.com); New York Times, “Appeals Court Upholds Block on Trump Ballroom Construction,” August 7, 2026 (nytimes.com); NPR, “Judge rules White House ballroom construction must halt until Congress OK’s it,” March 31, 2026 (npr.org).

Iran’s August 31 missile strike on King Hussein and Al Azraq air bases in Jordan, all 8 intercepted with no U.S. casualties — Reuters, “Iran’s IRGC says it launched attack on two US bases in Jordan,” August 30, 2026 (reuters.com); anewz.tv, “US strikes Iranian rocket launchers as Tehran retaliates with missile attack,” September 1, 2026 (anewz.tv).

Trump’s Asheville remarks pledging to hit Iran “hard,” the AI-generated Kharg Island videos, Iran’s “laughable” reply, Vance’s “sending a message” comment, and Bessent’s weekly Iranian bank sanctions pledge from the G20 — Saudi Gazette, “Trump threatens to hit Iran ‘hard’ after first exchange of fire in weeks,” September 1, 2026 (saudigazette.com.sa); Quartz, “Scott Bessent promises weekly Iran bank sanctions,” August 31, 2026 (qz.com).

Russian missile and drone strike on Kyiv and surrounding oblast overnight into Tuesday, September 1, with at least 11 killed including 3 children and 7 killed at a Ukrainian Railways depot — Reuters, “Nine killed, over a dozen injured as Russia strikes Kyiv region for sixth successive day,” September 1, 2026 (reuters.com); Deutsche Welle, “Ukraine updates: Russia hits Kyiv for sixth straight day,” September 1, 2026 (dw.com); Kyiv Independent, “8 killed, 5 injured in Kyiv, including children, as Russia’s massive attack targets civilians,” September 1, 2026 (kyivindependent.com); Southeast Missourian/Associated Press, “Russian barrage of drones and missiles on Ukraine’s capital region kills at least 11,” September 1, 2026 (semissourian.com); UNN, “Air raid alert,” September 1, 2026 (unn.ua).

Judge Indira Talwani’s August 27, 2026 temporary restraining order blocking USPS mail-in voting rule provisions, and the September 3 hearing on preliminary injunction — Jerusalem Post, “Federal judge blocks new USPS mail ballot rules,” August 28, 2026 (jpost.com); Independent, “Trump’s mail-in voting crackdown hits a wall as judge warns millions could lose vote,” August 28, 2026 (independent.co.uk); PBS NewsHour, “Judge again blocks Trump mail ballot executive order in ruling that’s likely to be swiftly appealed,” August 28, 2026 (pbs.org); Jurist, “US judge blocks USPS rule restricting mail-in voting ahead of midterm elections,” August 29, 2026 (jurist.org); The 901 Report, “The Judge the Supreme Court Said Moved Too Early,” August 29, 2026 (the901report.com).

Leon Black’s September 3 filmed sworn deposition, the $170 million Wyden paper trail, the U.S. Virgin Islands $62.5 million settlement, Ghislaine Maxwell birthday poem, and Comer’s August 18 contempt threat — sourced in full in “The 170 Million Dollar Man,” Monica Andreasen, Uncomfortable Truth, August 31, 2026 (monicaandreasen.substack.com/p/the-170-million-man).

Kansas Turnpike toll increase effective September 1, 2026 — Ad Astra Radio, Hutchinson News, August 30, 2026 (adastraradio.com).

Kansas State Board of Canvassers meeting September 1, 2026 to certify 2026 primary election — Kansas Secretary of State press release, “State Board of Canvassers to Meet,” August 26, 2026 (sos.ks.gov).

North Dakota SNAP junk-food purchase ban effective September 1, 2026 — The Sun, “Shoppers banned from buying five popular ‘junk foods’ due to SNAP benefits crackdown,” August 19, 2026 (the-sun.com).

Nepal flood death toll of 987 with 3,916 missing, combined Nepal–China toll of 1,003 dead and 4,462 missing, 11,000 rescued, PM Balendra Shah on hydropower workers, $42 million in aid, India and China Bailey bridge assistance, and glacial-bedrock failure finding — Al Jazeera, “Death toll from devastating floods in China and Nepal surpasses 1,000,” September 1, 2026 (aljazeera.com).

Corrections desk: come at me.

1 NDA.

3 days.

A sitting United States senator has spent 4 years chasing a paper trail that ends in one sentence: Leon Black was Jeffrey Epstein’s single largest source of funding, and Epstein relied on those payments to bankroll his trafficking of girls. That is Ron Wyden, on Senate Finance Committee letterhead, tracing a $170 million wire trail between 2012 and 2017 that Apollo’s own outside lawyers had spent 5 years low-balling as $158 million.

On Thursday, Leon Black sits down in a room in Washington under oath, on camera, in front of the House Oversight Committee, and has to explain it.

He does not want to.

He walked out of the friendly version of this conversation in June, about an hour in, the moment they asked him about NDAs. Chairman James Comer subpoenaed him on the spot. Then Black’s lawyers spent the summer trying to make the subpoena disappear. They asked Comer to convert the deposition back to a voluntary interview. They asked him to narrow the NDA questioning to 1 agreement. They asked him to move Thursday to October. They asked for a written promise that Black would not be held in contempt. On August 18, in a signed letter on House Oversight letterhead, Comer said no to all of it and put contempt on the table if Black skips Thursday or slow-walks another document.

Black’s attorney, Susan Estrich, called the whole thing a witch hunt.

The June 26 transcript is public. The August 18 letter is public. It is worse than anybody knew.

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The 7 Things Wyden Wants Him To Answer

On March 23, 2026, Wyden sent Black a letter listing 7 findings from documents released by the DOJ. Every one of them is on the Senate Finance Committee’s website. Every one of them is in Black’s inbox. He hasn’t answered any of them on the record.

Here they are.

1. Black paid Epstein 30 times more than he paid the elite tax and estate lawyers he already had on retainer. Not double, not triple — 30 times over.

2. $10 million of the payments got laundered through what Wyden calls a sham 501(c)(3) tax-exempt charity. Epstein’s lawyer Richard Kahn wrote an email — an email Wyden has — saying that routing the money through the charity would “avoid public disclosure” and “maximize deductions.”

3. Black was overpaid $141 million by a family trust. If the trust is ruled defective, billions get clawed back into his taxable estate.

4. Emails say Black paid millions of dollars to women using Epstein as the middleman.

5. Millions of those payments to women were logged as “gifts” in Epstein’s own files. Which is a federal gift-and-estate-tax problem if the IRS ever picks it up.

6. Epstein gave the Russian government the location of women who were on Black’s payroll. Nobody has explained why.

7. Epstein and the head of the law firm Paul Weiss partnered up to surveil women on Black’s behalf.

Then there is the 8th thing, and this one Black has already admitted in writing.

In January 2023 he paid the government of the U.S. Virgin Islands $62.5 million to make a criminal investigation go away. In that signed settlement he admitted the money he paid Epstein was used to fund sex trafficking in USVI. That same settlement gave criminal immunity to Black’s attorneys and agents.

You don’t pay a U.S. territory $62.5 million and immunize your lawyers because you were somebody’s tax client.

The Birthday Poem

Here is a piece of the June 26 transcript that has barely been reported. I don’t know why.

Ghislaine Maxwell — now doing 20 years for trafficking children — put together a birthday book for Jeffrey Epstein’s 50th, and Leon Black wrote him a poem in it. One line asked whether “Birds and Bucks, Cs and Ms” were Epstein’s key. Another asked whether blond, red, or brunette spread out geographically was the pattern. He signed it Best of all, a Dear Friend. Happy Birthday, Jeffrey. Love and kisses, Leon.

Black told the committee in June he was just talking about how Epstein seemed to know women all over the world. Then he told the United States Congress, on the record, that Epstein’s lifestyle was mostly good-looking women, a bachelor, a little bit out of a James Bond movie.

Epstein was, at the time Leon Black wrote him that birthday poem, a registered sex offender.

The “60-Cent Dollars” Story

Black’s story about the $170 million is that he got played.

He told the committee that Epstein sold him on the fees by promising they were tax-deductible — “60-cent dollars,” was Black’s phrase — and he only worked out years later, after Epstein was dead, that he had been overpaying by tens of millions.

This is a man who runs one of the largest private equity firms on earth. He is asking the country to believe he couldn’t do basic tax math for 5 years straight, and only did the arithmetic after his tax advisor stopped breathing.

Then he refused to answer the NDA questions. He was not there to talk about confidential NDAs, he told the committee. He was not there to talk about who has NDAs. Epstein was not his NDA adviser. That was the answer, three ways, to a dozen different questions.

But when they put documents in front of him he did admit that he paid 1 woman $21.7 million — $100,000 a month for 15 years, plus $1 million in loan forgiveness and $2 million in British pounds for a U.K. visa — for what he called a 6-year affair, which he says she blackmailed and extorted him into. And yes, he admitted Epstein knew about the payments. Because Epstein was helping manage his finances.

$21.7 million. To 1 woman. For a 6-year affair, paid out over 15 years. With Jeffrey Epstein processing.

Then Leon Black got up and walked out.

The NDA Fight

Here is what happened between then and now. It matters, because it is the actual behavior of a man who says he has nothing to hide.

On July 24, after Comer extended his deadline by 2 weeks, Black’s lawyers finally complied with the NDA subpoena by handing over exactly 1 agreement — a $9.5 million settlement with a Russian immigrant single mother named Guzel Ganieva. Comer’s spokesperson said it out loud. Leon Black is not acting in good faith. Then Black’s own outside counsel, Aaron Cutler at Hogan Lovells, wrote Oversight a letter arguing that the 1 NDA was the only one within the scope of the committee’s goals — that Black should not have to hand over the others.

On August 18, Comer wrote back. He rejected the scope argument in full and restated the subpoena, which by its own terms covers every NDA to which Black is a party, every NDA to which Epstein or Maxwell is or was a party, and every NDA either of them helped prepare, execute, or enforce. He confirmed on paper that Thursday’s deposition would go forward in Washington, filmed and transcribed and under oath. And he added the sentence that turned this from a subpoena fight into a contempt fight: if Black refuses to produce responsive documents or refuses to appear on September 3, the committee will use all tools at its disposal, including contempt.

1 NDA. That is what Leon Black would prefer the public to know about. 3 days from now he is under oath about the rest.

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Guzel Ganieva

The 1 NDA Black produced was hers.

Guzel Ganieva was a single mother in her early 20s who came to the United States from Russia alone. She met Leon Black in 2008. Her 2021 lawsuit said Black used his extreme power and wealth to coerce her into signing a nondisclosure agreement in October 2015 precisely because he knew what he had done to her was shocking, evil, and exposed him to potential criminal charges. The suit said he forced sadistic sexual acts on her without her consent and despite her saying no. It said he threatened her — that if she did not accept the money, he would imprison her.

Black denied all of it, called her an extortionist, and got the case dismissed in January 2025 — not because a court decided her claims were false, but because a 4–1 New York appellate panel ruled that by taking $100,000 a month totaling $9 million before she sued, she had ratified the NDA she was allegedly coerced into signing in the first place.

That is not an exoneration. That is a billionaire outlasting a Russian immigrant single mother in court by out-lawyering her. That is what $17 billion buys you at the courthouse.

Jane Doe And The Private Call To The Judge

Black is also fighting a second Manhattan lawsuit from an autistic woman — Jane Doe — who says he raped her at Jeffrey Epstein’s mansion in 2002, when she was 16.

Here is what The Guardian found out this year. In 2024, Black’s lawyers privately reached out to Judge Jessica G.L. Clarke — the federal judge assigned to Doe’s case — outside of any court filing, to raise doubts about the plaintiff and defend Black’s good name. Judges are not supposed to hear from one side’s lawyers in private. That is what a public brief is for. Black’s team did it anyway.

In April 2026, Judge Clarke did sanction Doe’s lawyer Jeanne Christensen — the head of Wigdor LLP — ruling that Christensen had lied repeatedly to the court and that Doe had fabricated images in a diary she used to bolster her claims. That is real. Black’s team called it total vindication.

Read the rest of the order and it is not total.

The same judge ruled the underlying lawsuit can still proceed. The rape allegation was not dismissed. The sanction is against the lawyer, not the merits.

And in March 2026, Wigdor filed a separate civil action against Black under New York’s anti-SLAPP statute — the law that stops rich guys from burying critics in legal bills — arguing he has used multiple frivolous and malicious lawsuits as retaliation against accusers.

That leaves 3 lawsuits against Black: 2 dismissed or withdrawn on procedure, and 1 still standing. That is Black’s own count, not mine.

The Bombshell Everyone Missed: Apollo’s Current CEO Was In The Epstein Pipeline Too

This is where the story stops being about 1 bad billionaire and starts being about 1 contaminated firm.

For 5 years, Apollo Global Management told the world Leon Black was the only person at the firm who ever had anything to do with Jeffrey Epstein. After the DOJ dumped millions of pages of Epstein documents on January 30, 2026, Apollo said it again. On February 18, 2026, in a formal letter to clients and partners, the firm wrote that neither Marc Rowan nor anyone else at Apollo — excluding Leon Black — had a business or personal relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.

That was a lie.

Marc Rowan is Apollo’s current CEO and Black’s hand-picked successor. In early 2026, two teachers’ unions — the American Federation of Teachers and the American Association of University Professors — pulled the DOJ files apart and sent the SEC the receipts. AFT members alone have at least $27.5 billion of capital committed to Apollo.

Here is the calendar. It is straight out of their letter to the SEC:

• September 3, 2013. Rowan meets Epstein for the first time at Apollo’s offices.

• September 8, 2013. Rowan meets Epstein again.

• October 22, 2013. Rowan and Black have breakfast with Epstein.

• January 2014. Black tells Rowan to call Epstein about “donor advised funds.”

• January 6, 2016. Rowan meets Epstein for breakfast.

• January 14, 2016. Rowan meets Epstein at his New York mansion. They likely discuss what Epstein described as “Athene, Montauk Rothschild. Planes boats etc.”

• February 2016. Rowan and Epstein trade emails about working with Edmond de Rothschild to finance an Apollo corporate inversion. An inversion is a tax dodge — you move your legal home offshore and pay less U.S. tax. Epstein writes to Rowan that he can join the call if appropriate, that using Rothschild for the inversion allows interesting structures. Rowan writes back one word. Agreed.

• March 4, 2016. Rowan appears to ask Epstein for advice on Apollo’s tax receivable agreement calculations.

• March 2016. Epstein introduces Rowan to Nicholas Ribis, a Trump-resort executive who then tries to get himself appointed as examiner in the Caesars Entertainment bankruptcy — a case Apollo had massive interests in.

• September 2016. Apollo’s Brad Wechsler asks Apollo staff to keep Epstein cc’d on tax matters for all 3 Apollo founders. Because of Epstein’s “substantive expertise.”

The DOJ’s Epstein Files Transparency Act index has at least 282 records tied to Marc Rowan.

Apollo told its own clients on February 18, 2026 that Rowan had no relationship with Epstein outside select instances tied to Leon Black’s personal tax matters. The DOJ files say otherwise. So does Marc Rowan’s own inbox.

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$27.5 Billion And A Class Action

Those 2 teachers’ unions — AFT alone has at least $27.5 billion committed to Apollo — didn’t just write the SEC. They put the whole file on the record. Their letter to the SEC’s enforcement director asked whether Apollo’s statements to its own shareholders could be materially false or misleading. They wrote that they could not ascertain what drives this lack of candor, but that it warrants investigation.

The market answered before the SEC did. Between the FT bombshell on February 1, 2026 and the CNN tangled report on February 21, Apollo stock fell about 15%. That is roughly $12 billion in market cap wiped out in 3 weeks.

On March 3, 2026, shareholders filed a securities fraud class action in the Southern District of New York — Feldman v. Apollo Global Management, Inc., et al., No. 1:26-cv-01692. Named defendants: Apollo, Marc Rowan, and Leon Black. Class period: May 10, 2021 through February 21, 2026.

Black is a defendant not because he was CEO — he wasn’t during the class period — but because he is still a major shareholder in Apollo. The complaint says he exercised the power and authority to cause Apollo Global to issue statements that artificially inflated the company’s share price throughout the class period — what securities law calls a controlling person. Bloomberg’s read of his SEC filings puts his current stake at about 14% of Apollo’s common units, directly and through trusts.

14% of a firm managing over $1 trillion in assets. That is how you leave a scandal in title only.

He Did Not Actually Lose Anything

In March 2021, Black stepped down as CEO of Apollo. In June 2021, he stepped down as chair of the Museum of Modern Art after months of protests from artists and the museum’s own staff. He said it was about his health and his wife’s health.

That is the entire consequence.

He is still worth roughly $17.3 billion, per the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. He still owns about 14% of Apollo. He is still a MoMA trustee — he just isn’t chairman anymore. He got replaced by Marie-Josée Kravis, wife of another leveraged-buyout billionaire. MoMA director Glenn Lowry called Black outstanding on the way out.

The Wall Street Journal ran a whole piece 3 days ago titled Power, Betrayal and the Fall of Leon Black — as if we should be sad for him. He is a billionaire many times over, his hand-picked CEO runs the firm, and his deposition is Thursday only because he tried to move it and failed. That is not a fall. That is a soft landing on 14% of a trillion dollars.

Epstein’s single largest funder lost a title. That is the cost of financing sex trafficking in America if you have $17 billion.

How We Boycott Him Before Thursday

We cannot subpoena him. We cannot sit on his tax returns. What we can do, in the next 72 hours, is make Leon Black expensive. Not at the checkout counter. At the ledger.

Start with Apollo, because Apollo is a lot of things you would not think of as Apollo. In 2021 the firm bought Yahoo and AOL from Verizon for roughly $5 billion, and TechCrunch and Engadget came with the deal — so if your default homepage is still Yahoo, or your email is still @yahoo or @aol, or your tech news comes from TechCrunch, this is your excuse to move. Apollo owns The Venetian on the Las Vegas Strip; it is Vegas, there are options. Apollo owns Michaels, the arts and crafts chain, so if you have a kid and a school project and a coupon in your inbox, try Blick or the local craft shop instead. Apollo owns Cox Media Group, which runs dozens of radio and TV stations across the country, so look up whether your local station is a Cox station, and if it is, tell its top local advertisers you know. And Apollo owns Athene, its insurance and annuities arm, which is not a coincidence — it is the same Athene that shows up in Marc Rowan’s 2016 townhouse notes with Jeffrey Epstein. If you or your parents are shopping for a fixed annuity, ask the agent who underwrites it.

Then cancel your MoMA membership, in writing, with Leon Black’s name in the subject line. He is still a trustee. Every membership dollar, every gift-shop purchase, every ticket you buy props up an institution that decided being Jeffrey Epstein’s single largest funder was survivable. The last activist campaign is what pushed him out of the chair in 2021. The trustee seat is the next domino and it falls the same way — with public pressure and canceled money.

Then call the SEC. The American Federation of Teachers and the American Association of University Professors already filed the referral on February 17, 2026. The SEC has not opened a public investigation. That is a choice. The tip line is 1-800-SEC-0330. Reference the AFT and AAUP letter of February 17, 2026, concerning Apollo Global Management. It takes 4 minutes.

While you have the phone in your hand, check what your retirement is holding. Apollo trades under ticker APO on the NYSE. If your 401(k) is in a Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, State Street, or BlackRock broad-market index fund, you probably own a piece of Apollo. You didn’t pick it. You just do. Ask your plan administrator if they offer an ex-financials or ex-Apollo screen. And if you sit on an institutional fund — a pension board, a university endowment, a union investment committee — put a divestment resolution on the table before Thursday. The timing is the leverage.

If you bought Apollo stock between May 10, 2021 and February 21, 2026 and you lost money on it, you are already a member of Feldman v. Apollo. The firms leading the class action are Hagens Berman at APO@hbsslaw.com, and Levi & Korsinsky. Bigger class, bigger judgment.

Then call the House Oversight Committee. Thursday’s deposition is closed-door and videotaped, and under committee practice the tape and transcript can stay locked. That is the default and it is a bad default. Majority line, (202) 225-5074. Minority line, (202) 225-5051. Ask both, on the record, that the September 3 Leon Black deposition transcript and videotape be released publicly — the way the June 26 transcript was released — and that if Black skips or stonewalls again, the committee actually vote out contempt. Call every day this week.

And call Wyden’s office and thank his investigators. Public support is what keeps a 4-year investigation alive when the political winds shift. Senate Finance Committee, (202) 224-4515.

The Closer

A sitting United States senator has said, on official Senate letterhead, that Leon Black was Jeffrey Epstein’s single largest source of funding, and that Epstein relied heavily on those payments to bankroll his sex trafficking activity.

Black paid the U.S. Virgin Islands $62.5 million to make a criminal investigation go away and admitted in that settlement that Epstein used the money for trafficking.

He wrote Epstein a birthday poem asking whether “Birds and Bucks” were his key and signed it Love and kisses, Leon. He paid 1 woman $21.7 million with Jeffrey Epstein processing. He walked out of Congress rather than say how many other NDAs are out there. When Congress subpoenaed him, he produced 1 — and told the committee, through counsel, that the other agreements were none of their business.

His hand-picked successor — the current CEO of a firm sitting on more than $1 trillion of other people’s money — was in Epstein’s calendar for years while Apollo told the world otherwise.

The Department of Justice hasn’t charged him. The House Oversight Committee is trying. Ron Wyden has been trying for 4 years.

3 days.

Close the Yahoo tab, cancel the MoMA membership, skip the Venetian, boycott Micheal’s. Call the SEC, call Oversight, call your senator.

You cannot indict Leon Black, but you can bankrupt his cover before Thursday.

That is the ledger.

I went full-time on this. That means I make more than the $280 a week I was making at the flower shop — enough to get kicked off SNAP this month, with Medicaid probably next. That is how the cliff works in this country. You clear it by a dollar and the floor disappears.

I am telling you that not to complain, but because you deserve to know what independent journalism actually costs when the person writing it isn’t independently wealthy.

If you can afford $6 a month or $60 a year, this is the moment, and I would be grateful. If you can’t, I truly understand — stay on the free list, read, argue with me, and share the work with the one person in your life who still thinks it’s “both sides.” That helps too. More than you know.

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Leon Black paid Jeffrey Epstein $170 million. I am asking for $6 so I can keep writing about it from Kansas.

That is the deal.

You can also leave me a tip at: buymeacoffee.com/monicaandreasen

Sources:

The $170 million figure and the finding that Black was Epstein’s single largest source of funding — Senate Finance Committee report on Wall Street banks and Epstein trafficking, released August 2026 under Ranking Member Ron Wyden; Senate Finance Committee, “Wyden Releases New Information on Financing of Jeffrey Epstein’s Operations by Billionaire Leon Black,” March 2025 (finance.senate.gov).

The 7 findings and Wyden’s questioning of Black — Senate Finance Committee, “Continuing Epstein Investigation, Wyden Questions Leon Black over New Revelations in Epstein Files, Appearance of Hush Money Payments and Surveillance of Women,” March 23, 2026 (finance.senate.gov).

The $62.5 million U.S. Virgin Islands settlement and its admission that “Jeffrey Epstein used the money Black paid him to partially fund his operations in the Virgin Islands,” and the immunity extended to Black’s attorneys and agents — Senate Finance Committee release of the settlement text; Epstein.observer database entry on Leon Black.

Black’s June 26, 2026 transcribed interview — the walkout, the “James Bond movie” quote, the “I’m not here to talk about confidential NDAs” quote, the $21 million payment to 1 woman over 15 years, and the Ghislaine Maxwell birthday book poem “Blonde, Red or Brunette, spread out geographically” signed “Love and kisses, Leon” — House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, “Oversight Committee Releases Leon Black and Doug Band Transcripts,” July 17, 2026 (oversight.house.gov), including the full transcript PDF; CNBC, “Apollo’s Leon Black says Jeffrey Epstein duped him,” June 26, 2026; PBS NewsHour, “Billionaire Leon Black defends $158M paid to Epstein: ‘I knew Jekyll. I didn’t know Hyde,’” June 26, 2026; The Guardian, “Leon Black accused of stonewalling Congress as Epstein hearing ends,” June 26, 2026; Politico, “House panel subpoenas Leon Black, escalating tactics in Epstein,” June 26, 2026; Bloomberg, “Black Told Panel He Paid $21 Million to Woman He Had Affair With,” July 17, 2026; Reuters, “Black tells Congress that Epstein duped, deceived him,” June 26, 2026.

Comer’s subpoenas issued during the interview — House Oversight release, “Chairman Comer Issues Two Subpoenas to Leon Black,” June 26, 2026 (oversight.house.gov); New York Times, “Congressional Panel Investigating Epstein Subpoenas Private Equity Mogul,” June 26, 2026.

The 1 NDA production, Cutler’s July 24, 2026 letter arguing the single agreement was “the only one within the scope of the Committee’s goals,” Comer’s August 18, 2026 letter rejecting that argument and restating the full scope of the NDA subpoena, and Comer’s contempt threat — Politico, “Comer: 1 NDA produced by Leon Black to House Oversight ‘unacceptable,’” July 24, 2026; Politico, “Comer threatens contempt as Black faces more Epstein questions,” August 18, 2026 (including the August 18 committee letter to Aaron Cutler at Hogan Lovells); Bloomberg, “House Epstein Panel Chair Threatens Leon Black with Contempt,” August 18, 2026; The Guardian, “Epstein client Leon Black threatened with contempt by House panel chair,” August 19, 2026.

The September 3, 2026 filmed, sworn deposition, and the confirmation that Black’s attorney agreed to the date — Politico, “Oversight panel sets date to depose Leon Black in Epstein probe,” July 14, 2026; PBS NewsHour, “Leon Black walked out of an Epstein House committee interview — here’s what we know,” July 17, 2026; Wikipedia biography of Leon Black, current as of August 2026.

Susan Estrich’s “witch hunt” description of the committee’s position — reporting summarized in podcast coverage of the August 2026 Guardian and Bloomberg reports.

Guzel Ganieva lawsuit allegations and the “If you do not accept the money, I will imprison you” quote — Financial Times, July 19, 2021; Washington Examiner, June 2021.

January 2025 New York Appellate Division ruling on Ganieva’s appeal, Black’s approximate $13.8 billion Bloomberg Billionaires Index valuation, and the pending Manhattan lawsuit from a woman alleging Black raped her at Epstein’s mansion in 2002 — Reuters, “US billionaire Leon Black prevails in defamation appeal,” January 16, 2025; Bloomberg Billionaires Index profile of Leon Black; Wikipedia biography of Leon Black.

Judge Jessica G.L. Clarke’s April 2026 sanctions ruling against Wigdor attorney Jeanne Christensen in the Jane Doe case, the finding that Doe had “fabricated images” in a diary, and the separate ruling that the lawsuit can still proceed — New York Times, “Judge Imposes Sanctions on Woman and Her Lawyer in Suit Against Leon Black,” April 24, 2026; Politico, “Judge sanctions law firm that has pursued Leon Black over Epstein ties,” April 24, 2026; The Guardian, “Epstein-linked billionaire accused of rape privately reached out to federal judge to defend his ‘good name,’” May 6, 2026 (reporting Black’s lawyers’ 2024 outreach to Judge Clarke).

Wigdor LLP’s March 2026 anti-SLAPP civil action — The Guardian, “Epstein-linked Leon Black waged bid to ‘silence’ law firm and accusers, suit says,” March 3, 2026.

Marc Rowan’s 2013–2016 meetings and email traffic with Epstein, the “Agreed” reply on the Rothschild inversion, and the September 2016 Brad Wechsler cc directive — Letter from the American Federation of Teachers and the American Association of University Professors to the SEC’s Director of Enforcement, February 17, 2026 (aft.org); CNN, “How Wall Street’s Apollo got tangled up again in the Epstein files,” February 21, 2026; Axios, “Teachers unions push for investigation into Apollo’s Epstein ties,” February 17, 2026; Bloomberg, “Apollo’s Pest: How Epstein Courted All Three Billionaire Founders,” March 25, 2026.

Apollo’s February 18, 2026 letter to clients — Apollo Global Management press release, “Apollo Sent the Following Letter to Clients and Partners” (apollo.com); Reuters, “Apollo says CEO Rowan had no business or personal relationship with Epstein,” February 19, 2026.

The 282 DOJ records tied to Rowan and the AFT/AAUP $27.5 billion figure — AFT/AAUP letter to SEC; CNN and Axios, February 17–21, 2026; commonsense401kproject.com, “The Leon Black Culture of Corruption at Apollo,” February 25, 2026.

Apollo’s approximately 15% stock decline and roughly $12 billion market cap loss in February 2026, and the Feldman v. Apollo Global Management securities class action, case number 1:26-cv-01692 — Reuters, “Apollo, Leon Black sued for allegedly concealing Epstein business ties,” March 3, 2026; PRNewswire investor alert filed by SueWallSt, March 26, 2026 and April 16, 2026.

Black’s 2021 departures from Apollo and MoMA, Marie-Josée Kravis as his replacement, and Glenn Lowry’s “outstanding” send-off — Institutional Investor, “Leon Black Steps Down as Apollo Chairman,” March 22, 2021; Wall Street Journal, “Apollo CEO Leon Black to Step Down Following Review of Jeffrey Epstein Ties,” January 25, 2021; Wall Street Journal, “Power, Betrayal and the Fall of Leon Black,” August 28, 2026.

Apollo’s assets under management (over $1 trillion as of March 2026) and Black’s retained 7% stake — Wikipedia biography of Leon Black; Forbes profile of Leon Black.

Apollo’s consumer holdings including Yahoo, AOL, TechCrunch, Engadget, The Venetian, Michaels, and Cox Media Group — Apollo public disclosures; industry coverage of the May 2021 Verizon-to-Apollo sale.

Every quotation attributed in this essay to Senator Wyden, Chairman Comer, Aaron Cutler, Susan Estrich, or Leon Black himself is drawn from the primary source cited above — a Senate Finance Committee document, a House Oversight Committee release or letter, an Apollo public statement, or the released transcribed interview transcript.

Sources are compiled from publicly available reporting, primary Senate and House Oversight Committee documents, SEC filings, court records, official Apollo Global Management public statements, and international coverage. Every claim in this essay is anchored to one of the above. Corrections desk, come at me.

Good Monday morning! Somewhere on the coast of Portugal a woman my age is standing on a hotel balcony in a linen dress watching the sun come up over the Atlantic, and here I am in rural Kansas at 3:38 a.m. with 12 tabs open reading a CENTCOM press release about a rocket launcher on an island in the Strait of Hormuz. In some alternate universe I am eating a pastel de nata at a bakery in Belem and deciding whether to book the ferry to the Azores for Wednesday. In this one I am reading two things side by side.

One is the Meet the Press transcript from yesterday morning, in which Sen. Ted Cruz told the country that Iran’s ballistic missile supply had been “almost entirely destroyed.” The other is the Reuters wire out of Amman from a few hours ago, in which Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps confirmed that it had just fired 8 ballistic missiles at U.S. air bases inside Jordan. All 8 were intercepted before they hit the ground. Nobody was killed on the American side. Ted Cruz has not been back on television this morning to update the country. The war is still going on. Let’s go.

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Eight Missiles Over Jordan

8.

That is how many Iranian ballistic missiles the Jordanian military said it intercepted after they violated Jordanian airspace early Monday morning, per Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announcing it had fired at U.S. fighter jets at two air bases inside Jordan.

The bases are King Hussein Air Base and Al Azraq Air Base. Several thousand U.S. military personnel are stationed at bases in Jordan. Jordan reported no injuries and no damage. The missiles were fired in retaliation for what happened on Larak Island a few hours earlier.

On Sunday, U.S. Central Command struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak, a small Iranian island inside the Strait of Hormuz. Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, the CENTCOM spokesman, confirmed the strike in a written statement. His words: “Earlier today U.S. forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz.”

Sea mines. Rockets carrying sea mines. Fired into the strait CENTCOM finished clearing sea mines from the week before.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the U.S. strike killed and wounded “several Iranian soldiers.” Iran’s Tasnim news agency said two people were killed. The Pentagon did not confirm any casualties. This was the first publicly acknowledged American strike on Iran since July 29, when CENTCOM hit dozens of targets inside the country. That is 32 days ago. That is one month.

Twelve hours before the Larak strike, Sen. Ted Cruz went on NBC’s Meet the Press and told the country the following. Iran’s ballistic missile supply had been “almost entirely destroyed.” Its drone supply had been “almost entirely destroyed.” Its air force was “in rubble on the runway.” Its navy was “sunk and at the bottom of the ocean.” President Trump had posted “Mission accomplished.”

Twelve hours later, an Iranian ballistic-missile supply that Sen. Cruz said did not exist sent 8 missiles at U.S. air bases in Jordan, and an Iranian rocket-launching capability that Sen. Cruz said did not exist was actively preparing to seed the Strait of Hormuz with sea mines.

The mission was not accomplished on Sunday. The mission was still going. It is going right now.

Where The Oil Is

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve of the United States, per the Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending August 21, is at 289.7 million barrels. That is 3.7 million barrels less than the week before. That is 113.7 million barrels less than a year ago. That is the lowest the reserve has been since 1982.

The reserve was created in 1975 after the Arab oil embargo for one reason: to protect the American economy in a supply shock the market cannot absorb. It is being drained right now to make up for oil that is not coming out of the Persian Gulf, because the strait is closed. On Sunday afternoon it was closed because Americans just bombed rocket launchers on an Iranian island in it.

At the current draw the reserve hits 250 million barrels around mid-November. It hits 200 million in February. It hits zero around March of 2028.

On Friday night at 8:11 p.m. Eastern, from the Roosevelt Room, the President of the United States announced he had solved this. He called it “the biggest oil deal in world history.” He said the United States had secured majority control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan proven reserves across 17 fields. Then on Sunday, in a Truth Social post, he said the American share of the output would be used to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. His words: “One of the things I am going to do with the Venezuelan Oil is fill up the Strategic National Reserves which, because of Sleepy Joe Biden, has been virtually emptied. The ‘topping out’ process will begin very shortly, and is a Gift from Venezuela to the People of the United States. Thank you! President DONALD J. TRUMP.”

Two things about this.

One. The Venezuelan side and the American side disagree on record about what the deal is. Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodríguez, in a televised address on Saturday, said the deal lasts 25 years. The White House told PBS the lease runs 100 years. That is a 75-year difference on a signed international agreement announced 60 hours ago.

Two. Nothing in Venezuela is coming out of the ground any time soon. Venezuela’s current production, per the Columbia Center on Global Energy Policy, is 1.2 million barrels a day. Before the Chávez takeover in the 1990s it was 3.5 million. Al Jazeera reported Sunday that the deal will require “significant investment and infrastructure work” before production can rise substantially. The Washington Post reported Saturday that the White House will not name the private Venezuelan operator on the other side of the joint venture, will not release the text of the deal, will not say when the fields will be drilled, and will not say who is paying to drill them.

The reserve empties by March 2028. The Venezuela fields do not produce for years. That is what is on the calendar.

The rest of it — the Presidents Cup honorary chairmanship, the third-term hints, the FCC threats — is the noise. The oil is the story.

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The FCC To The Rescue

On Sunday, from his Truth Social account, the President of the United States announced he was reporting the host of NBC’s Meet the Press to the Federal Communications Commission “for rebuke or punishment.”

Kristen Welker had said, in a live shot for NBC’s local Washington affiliate that morning, that President Trump’s midterm endorsements had “some mixed results.” That was her sentence. She then noted that his most recent endorsee, Sen. Darline Graham of South Carolina, had won her primary. Welker did not raise the endorsement record while hosting the actual Meet the Press broadcast.

The President’s post: “How can anyone be allowed to say this, working for freely given Public Airwaves? Because of this purposeful inaccuracy, she will be reported to the FCC for rebuke or punishment.” He added: “I hope that Chairman Brendan Carr, and the fine people of his Commission, will take this Threat to our Country very seriously.”

The President of the United States, on his Sunday afternoon, filed a broadcast-regulator complaint against a journalist for describing his win-loss record accurately.

NBC’s response, through a spokesperson: “Kristen is one of the best in the business and we stand by her.”

In a second Sunday post, the President wrote: “THE FAKE POLLS USED BY OUR CROOKED MEDIA ARE OUT OF CONTROL, AND SOMETHING MUST BE DONE ABOUT IT. FCC TO THE RESCUE!”

The FCC does not regulate individual on-air statements by journalists. The First Amendment prohibits the government from punishing speech about the government. That is the entire point of the First Amendment. The Chairman of the FCC, Brendan Carr, was named to that job by the sitting president. He now has, on the record, a public request from the sitting president to punish a journalist for accurately reporting the sitting president’s political record.

Judge Rita Lin, on Thursday, in the Anthropic ruling: “The empty invocation of national security is not a blank check to punish and retaliate against government critics.”

Different agency. Different statute. Same instinct.

Six Days Before The Ballots, Now Blocked

A quick update on Judge Indira Talwani’s Postal Service ruling from Thursday night, because it matters and it moves this week.

The temporary restraining order Judge Talwani issued in Massachusetts on August 27 is a 14-day nationwide block. The Postal Service is prohibited from carrying out the Trump administration’s mail-in ballot restrictions during those 14 days. Her words: “face irreparable harm where they are required to comply with a likely unconstitutional regulation for which compliance is practically impossible as to the 2026 midterm elections, now little more than two months away.”

A hearing on whether the block becomes a longer-lasting preliminary injunction is scheduled for September 3, 2026. That is Wednesday of this week. That is also the week the first mail-in ballots for the November election are scheduled to start going out.

The House returns from its August recess today. The Senate does not. The Senate has been out since August 7 and does not come back until September 14. That means the Senate has zero working days between now and the Judge Talwani hearing on September 3 to speak, or not speak, about a Postal Service rule that four different federal judges have already found unconstitutional in part.

Also On The Wire This Morning

Four more stories that broke since Friday’s receipt. None of them big enough to lead. All of them big enough that a functioning press should not lose them.

ICE arrested 49,571 people in July. The number was released by the Deportation Data Project. It is the highest single monthly total of Trump’s second term. Per the Guardian’s reporting, the administration is now averaging roughly 1,500 apprehensions and 1,100 removals daily. Not an offhand number. That is the number of Americans being taken off American streets every 24 hours.

Google Maps changed Lake Ontario to Lake America on Saturday. Users in the U.S. now see “Lake America” on their maps. Users in Canada still see “Lake Ontario.” Users everywhere else see “Lake Ontario (Lake America).” Google complied with the Geographic Names Information System update that the White House ordered on Thursday. Ontario Premier Doug Ford unveiled a physical sign reading “Lake Ontario” on the Canadian shore on Saturday. The lake will not be renamed for anyone outside U.S. federal databases. A private company was asked to change a place name to reflect a personal grievance of the sitting president, and it did.

Vice President Vance is addressing the Republican Jewish Coalition privately today in Las Vegas, per the Associated Press. The event follows weeks of internal Republican tension over Israel and antisemitism. It is closed press.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is at the G20 this week in an effort to keep sanctions coordination against Iran together with allies whose economies the same Treasury Department is currently tariffing. That is one department trying to build a coalition with the countries a different department is punishing. The G20 is Tuesday through Thursday.

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The Pattern

Eight Iranian missiles were intercepted over Jordan a few hours ago. Two Iranian rocket launchers were struck by Americans yesterday. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at a 44-year low and being drained. A deal to refill it will not produce a barrel for years, and the two governments who signed it cannot agree on how long it lasts. The President is trying to get a journalist punished by the FCC for accurately describing his endorsement record. A federal judge in Boston has 3 working days to decide whether the Postal Service can restrict mail-in ballots before the first ones start going out.

The pattern is not that the war ended. The pattern is that a whole lot of people in power keep saying it did.

The pattern is not that the reserve was full. The pattern is that a whole lot of people in power keep saying it will be.

The pattern is not that a journalist got the record wrong. The pattern is that the FCC is being asked to referee whether a journalist can describe the record at all.

None of this is normal. That is the whole beat this newsletter is on. A year and a half ago the same set of facts would have been four separate scandals. This morning it is Monday.

What Are We Going To Do About It

Call your representative and both senators today. Capitol switchboard: (202) 224-3121. The House is back for one week. The Senate is not back until September 14 — after the Talwani hearing. District offices are open. A real person answers.

Three questions.

1. Will your member force a War Powers Resolution vote this week? U.S. forces struck Iran yesterday. Jordan intercepted 8 Iranian ballistic missiles a few hours ago. The last War Powers vote failed by one in the Senate on July 30.

2. Will your member demand the Department of Energy publish the authorization for every Strategic Petroleum Reserve draw since February 28, and the source of the barrels that will refill it?

3. Will your member support a resolution stating the FCC has no authority to punish a journalist for accurately describing the political record of a sitting president? Yes or no.

If they will not answer, that is the answer.

The Ask

Degreed journalist. 50 states, 65 countries. Writing from rural Kansas.

I am going to be honest with you this morning. is sucking air. I filed 8 receipts last week. I filed on the ballroom the Chief Justice would not stop, the sanctions package that skipped Binance, the Fed governor the President said he would fire and did not, the beef waiver Kansas ranchers said no to, the anti-mail-ballot rule a federal judge blocked, the shock gloves ICE bought, the $10 million Casey DeSantis routed through her own charity, and the lake the President renamed with a crayon. That is a real week of work. And the paid subscriber count barely moved.

So here is the deal. Every paid subscription is one more Monday morning I spend reading the CENTCOM press release and the Meet the Press transcript and the EIA weekly petroleum report side by side, instead of taking the podium at face value. U.S. forces bombed Larak Island yesterday afternoon. Jordan intercepted 8 Iranian ballistic missiles a few hours ago. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at a 44-year low and being drained toward a Venezuelan deal that the two governments who signed it cannot agree lasts 25 years or 100. A federal judge in Boston has 3 working days to decide whether the Postal Service can restrict mail-in ballots before the first ones start going out. The President of the United States spent his Sunday afternoon asking a federal regulator to punish a reporter for using the word mixed. That is what happened between Friday’s receipt and this one. If you want the next Receipt to land before the cable networks catch up, the money means the most right now.

$6 a month. $60 a year. $120 for a founding subscription. The annual math works out to about $1.15 a week. Cheaper than a cup of gas station coffee, and I read the 59-page federal court orders so you do not have to.

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If the money is not there this month, restack this one. Restacks are worth more to this newsletter than most people realize, and they cost you nothing. Forward it to the one person in your life who is exhausted by cable news and knows something is wrong but cannot name it. That is the whole audience I am writing for.

You can also leave me a tip at: buymeacoffee.com/monicaandreasen

— Monica

PS

Don’t forget to do one of these today.

1. Call your representative about a War Powers Resolution vote this week. (202) 224-3121. It failed by one in the Senate on July 30. Ask if they will call it up again.

2. Call your representative about the Department of Energy authorization for every Strategic Petroleum Reserve draw since February 28, and the source of the barrels that will refill it.

3. Call your representative about a resolution stating the FCC has no authority to punish a journalist for accurately describing the political record of a sitting president.

4. Request your mail-in ballot now if you vote by mail. The Postal Service rule is going to move fast and the envelopes are the point.

5. Restack whichever one of these matters most to the person you are sending it to.

Thank you.

Sources

U.S. Strikes Iran in First Military Action in a Month — TIME, August 31, 2026

U.S. Forces Strike Two Iranian Launchers on Iran’s Larak Island — U.S. News & World Report / Reuters, August 30, 2026

US Strikes Iran’s Larak Island — Politico, August 30, 2026

Trump Threatens to Blow Up Iran’s Kharg Island Oil Hub as U.S. Strikes Larak — CNBC, August 30, 2026

U.S. and Iran Trade Strikes — New York Times Live Updates, August 30, 2026

Meet the Press Transcript, August 30, 2026 — NBC News

Trump Says US Will Refill Its Petroleum Reserves Using Venezuelan Oil — Al Jazeera, August 30, 2026

Trump Intends to Refill Strategic Petroleum Reserve With Venezuelan Oil — Washington Times, August 30, 2026

What We Know About Trump’s Deal Giving U.S. Access to Vast Oil Reserves in Venezuela — Washington Post, August 29, 2026

What We Know About Trump’s Deal Giving U.S. Access to Vast Oil Reserves in Venezuela — PBS NewsHour, August 29, 2026

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Week Ending August 21, 2026 — U.S. Energy Information Administration

Trump Says NBC’s Welker Will Be Reported to FCC — Reuters, August 30, 2026

Trump Calls for NBC’s Kristen Welker to Face ‘Rebuke or Punishment’ — Politico, August 30, 2026

Trump Threatens to Report Journalist Kristen Welker to Broadcast Regulator — Al Jazeera, August 30, 2026

Judge Once Again Bars Postal Service From Restricting Mail-In Voting — New York Times, August 27, 2026

U.S. Postal Service Mail-Ballot Curbs Halted by Judge for Now — Bloomberg, August 28, 2026

ICE Arrested 50,000 People in July — The Guardian, August 26, 2026

Immigration Arrests Soar, Hitting 50,000 in July — NPR, August 26, 2026

Google Maps Changes Lake Ontario to Lake America — CNN, August 30, 2026

Vance to Privately Address Republican Jewish Coalition — WBAL / Associated Press, August 31, 2026

Bessent Heads to the G20 to Rally Allies on Iran as Tariffs Strain Ties — WBAL / Associated Press, August 31, 2026

Beltway Buzz: Congressional Recess Schedule — Ogletree Deakins, July 17, 2026

The people who lived along that river were not, most of them, thinking about carbon markets on Tuesday night. They were closing shops in Rasuwa and Nuwakot. They were finishing dinner. They were tourists — hundreds of them, from more than 30 countries — turning in on a trekking-corridor cot, because August in the Himalayas is the season you go to see the mountains, and this August the road to Tibet had reopened for the first time in five years for the Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimage. By Sunday afternoon Nepal Police had confirmed 768 dead and 2,715 missing on the Nepal side. Tibet reported 16 dead and 546 missing. Combined: 784 dead. More than 3,250 unaccounted for. The confirmed count has climbed every few hours since Wednesday. The final number will run into the thousands.

I want to sit with that for a minute before we talk about glaciers, because glaciers do what glaciers always do in stories like this. They turn people into data.

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What Actually Happened

A slab of a high-altitude glacier broke off inside Tibet, about 25 kilometers north of the border. It hit the mountain, and the mountain came with it. The U.S. Geological Survey initially clocked it as a magnitude 5.2 earthquake before reclassifying it as a glacier collapse — that is how much ice and rock we are talking about. The debris temporarily dammed the Lhende Khola. Then the dam gave way. The surge went into the Bhote Koshi, then the Trishuli, and then into the villages.

This same river flooded 14 months ago and took out the Miteri Bridge, Nepal’s main border crossing with China. Twice in a year. That is not weather. That is a trend line with bodies on it.

And there is another lake now. The collapse formed a new barrier lake upstream, straddling the China-Nepal border at the confluence of two rivers. It forced rescue operations to pause twice over the weekend. Chinese authorities say the water is draining slowly through the barrier and the risk is easing. That is the good version. The other version is that Nepal is now waiting to see whether the second flood arrives before the first count of the dead is finished.

The Numbers Nobody Wants to Hold

Nepal has lost close to a third of its ice in just over 30 years. Its glaciers are melting 65% faster than they did the decade before. ICIMOD, the Kathmandu-based research institute that has been watching these mountains for 50 years, reported this spring that ice loss across the Hindu Kush Himalaya has doubled since 2000, and that 89% of monitored years since 1975 have shown negative mass balance.

Eighty-nine percent. Every generation living in these valleys right now is the first generation to see its glaciers this small. The next one will see them smaller. Under the emissions path we’re actually on — not the aspirational one, the real one — the Eastern Himalayas lose up to 75% of their ice by 2100.

Forty-seven glacial lakes in Nepal and Tibet are already classified as potentially dangerous by ICIMOD and the Nepali government. Twenty-one are in Nepal. Twenty-five are in Tibet. One is in India. They sit above the headwaters of every major river that flows south into Nepal. Forty-seven walls, waiting. Forty-eight, as of Wednesday.

The Batteries

Somewhere on a ridge above the Everest region there is a siren tower. It was installed with UN money for exactly this kind of flood. It was inspected once, in 2016. In the 10 years since, no one came back. Its batteries were stolen. When the BBC went to look in April, the tower was rusting on its post.

That is the whole story in one image.

Nepal’s flood-warning system on Wednesday performed exactly the way an underfunded system performs. The department of hydrology got its first data at 8:56 a.m., roughly 16 minutes after the water had already entered the country. Four monitoring stations were swept away before they could transmit. Nature published an assessment the next day saying early warning could have saved hundreds of lives, but the sensors above 5,000 meters that would have caught this event mostly don’t exist, and China-Nepal data-sharing is “inadequate to the pace of the changing hazard.”

The pace of the changing hazard. That is the polite scientific way of saying that the mountain is coming apart faster than the paperwork.

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The Math of Who Pays

Nepal contributes roughly one-tenth of one percent of global emissions. Its national adaptation plan needs $47.4 billion by 2050. The country can contribute $1.5 billion of that. It needs $45.9 billion from somewhere else.

Somewhere else has other priorities. The Green Climate Fund has disbursed about $53 billion globally since it opened. Nepal has received about $253 million of it. The Loss and Damage Fund — the mechanism the wealthy countries agreed to at COP27 for exactly this kind of catastrophe — finally opened for proposals this spring, with individual grants capped at $5 to $20 million. A siren tower that works costs more than that. A working border warning system across the entire Himalayan cryosphere costs a great deal more.

Meanwhile, 70% of the world’s new fossil fuel expansion is being driven by four countries: the United States, Canada, Norway, and Australia.

That is the deal. The countries whose carbon is destabilizing the Third Pole are still expanding the industry that’s destabilizing the Third Pole. They have promised, in principle, to help the countries downstream. They have capped that help at an amount that would not repair a single hydropower dam. And when a mountain fell into a river on Wednesday morning, the batteries of the siren that might have warned the villages were still missing. As of Sunday, 784 people were confirmed dead across Nepal and Tibet. That is the floor, not the number. More than 3,250 are still missing, most of them in valleys the water is still moving through, and the count is going to climb into the thousands before this is done.

The Hydropower Dead

Of the 2,715 people still missing in Nepal, 933 of them are hydropower workers. Nepali and foreign — Chinese, South Korean, others — buried inside the tunnels of the Trishuli 3A and 3B projects, or swept away at the Rasuwagadhi, Chilime, and Devighat sites. The Nepali army has spent five days pumping air into a flooded tunnel, drilling a hole, sending down a camera. As of the weekend, no communication had been established with anyone inside.

Nepal lost 431 megawatts of installed capacity in the flood. It lost another 470 megawatts of construction. That is the country’s energy transition, sitting in the debris of the country’s climate disaster, in a river that has now flooded twice in 14 months, in a corridor where the peer-reviewed literature said not to build.

The Pattern

This is not the first time. In February 2021, a rock-and-ice avalanche off Ronti Peak in Uttarakhand killed more than 200 people and destroyed two hydropower plants. In May 2022, a heat wave melted the Shisper glacier in Pakistan’s Hunza valley and the outburst took the Karakoram Highway bridge with it. In October 2023, South Lhonak lake breached in Sikkim and the resulting flood wiped out the 1,200-megawatt Teesta-III dam 68 kilometers downstream, killing about 100 people.

Every one of these events destroyed hydropower infrastructure that scientists had warned, in peer-reviewed journals, not to build. Every one of these events was preceded by public reports saying: the glaciers are unstable, the lakes are growing, the region is warming, do not build here. Every one of these events was followed by more construction.

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What Is Owed

The word for what’s happening in Nepal this week is not tragedy. Tragedy is what we call it when there was nothing to be done. There was plenty to be done. There is a laboratory of dead warning systems and unbuilt sirens and unfunded plans that says exactly what needed to be done, for how long it has needed doing, and by whom.

The families in Rasuwa did not burn the carbon. The tourists on the trekking corridor did not burn most of it either, though some of them came from countries that did. The hydropower workers in the tunnels certainly did not. The glaciers above them are keeping a ledger the rest of us have been pretending doesn’t exist. Wednesday morning was one line item. There will be more.

I keep thinking about the 30 minutes. That is the window, from the moment the mountain moved to the moment the wall reached the villages. In those 30 minutes, an early warning system that actually worked — sensors above 5,000 meters, cross-border data sharing, functioning sirens, a plan — would have been enough to move a lot of people uphill. It didn’t exist. It has been on order for a decade. It costs, in the scheme of a fossil-fuel budget, essentially nothing.

The people who could have paid for it are still, right now, expanding oil and gas. That is not a weather story. That is a choice, and it will be made again tomorrow, and someone else will be standing in a river when it is.

is reader-funded. No ads, no sponsors, no billionaires. If you value independent, source-cited accountability journalism, this is how it gets made.

What you just read took hours of source-checking — Nepal Police and NDRRMA counts across four outlets, ICIMOD’s March 2026 reports, UNFCCC filings, peer-reviewed reconstructions of Chamoli and Sikkim, and the BBC’s April investigation into the rusted Imja siren tower. Every essay on this page goes through the same process. It is not a hot take. It is a paper trail.

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Sources

Death toll and missing count (Nepal 768 dead / 2,715 missing; Tibet 16 dead / 546 missing; combined 784 dead / more than 3,250 missing, as of Sunday afternoon, August 30, 2026, per Nepal Police and NDRRMA) — Nepal News, “Bhote Koshi catastrophe: A 360-degree look at what happened, what went wrong and what comes next,” August 30, 2026 — https://english.nepalnews.com/s/explainers/bhote-koshi-catastrophe-a-360-degree-look-at-what-happened-what-went-wrong-and-what-comes-next/ ; CBS News, “Nepal flood death toll exceeds 700, with more than 3,000 missing,” August 30, 2026 — https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nepal-flash-flood-death-missing-americans-rescue/ ; The Guardian, “Nepal-Tibet floods: Nepal calls for technical support,” August 29, 2026 — https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/aug/29/nepal-tibet-floods-latest-updates-death-toll-missing-search-and-rescue

45-mile stretch of Trishuli River affected, Rasuwa and Nuwakot districts, tourists from more than 30 countries missing, 589 foreign nationals missing on Nepal side including largest groups of Indians, Americans, Ukrainians, Australians, Britons, and South Korean hydropower workers; Rasuwagadhi-Gyirong crossing had reopened for Kailash Mansarovar Yatra after five-year pause — Nepal News, August 30, 2026 — same URL above ; Wikipedia, “2026 Nepal floods” — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Nepal_floods

Trishuli River rose 27 feet (9 meters) in 30 minutes — NPR, “8 dead, hundreds missing as Nepal avalanche triggers flash floods,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.npr.org/2026/08/26/g-s1-140211/8-dead-hundreds-missing-as-nepal-avalanche-triggers-flash-floods

Glacier collapse originated ~25 km inside Tibet; USGS initially logged as magnitude-5.2 earthquake before reclassifying as glacier collapse — CNN, “What caused the Nepal flood wave? Here’s what we know,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/26/weather/floods-nepal-cause-vis ; New York Times, “Deadly Nepal Flood May Have Been Caused by ‘Ice Avalanche,’ Scientists Say,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/26/world/asia/nepal-flood-glacier-ice-avalanche.html

New barrier lake at China-Nepal confluence forced at least two rescue suspensions; Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reports water draining slowly through, risk decreasing — The Guardian, August 29, 2026 — same URL above ; Nepal News, August 30, 2026 — same URL above

Lhende Khola flooded 14 months earlier (July 2025), Miteri Bridge (Nepal-China border crossing) swept away — Himalayan Times, “Upper Mustang flood caused by GLOF, HiRISK confirms,” July 13, 2025 — https://thehimalayantimes.com/environment/upper-mustang-flood-caused-by-glof-hirisk-confirms-experts-warn-of-growing-risks-from-high-altitude-lakes

Nepal has lost close to one-third of its ice in just over 30 years; glaciers melting 65% faster in last decade than the prior one — UN News, “UN chief sounds alarm over rapid Himalayan glacier melt,” May 16, 2025 — https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/05/1163376

ICIMOD March 2026 reports: HKH ice loss doubled since 2000, 89% of monitored years since 1975 showed negative mass balance — ICIMOD press release, March 18, 2026 — https://www.icimod.org/press-releases/hindu-kush-himalaya-glaciers-losing-ice-at-double-the-rate-since-2000-new-icimod-report-confirm/

Eastern Himalayas projected to lose up to 75% of ice by 2100 under 3°C warming — Al Jazeera, “Himalayan glaciers may lose 75 percent of ice by 2100: Report,” June 20, 2023 — https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/20/himalayan-glaciers-may-lose-75-percent-of-ice-by-2100-report

47 Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes identified across Nepal, Tibet, and India (21 in Nepal, 25 in Tibet, 1 in India) — UNDP/ICIMOD report, September 7, 2020 — https://www.adaptation-undp.org/report-icimod-and-undp-identifies-potentially-dangerous-glacial-lakes-river-basins-nepal-tibet

Imja Lake early warning system: installed with UN funds, last inspected in 2016, siren tower rusting, batteries stolen — BBC, “Everest flood warning neglected for years, Nepal officials tell BBC,” April 24, 2026 — https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czjwr93vrrzo

Nepal’s Department of Hydrology received first flood data at 8:56 a.m., 16 minutes after water entered country; four monitoring stations swept away before transmitting — bdnews24, “Explainer: Why Nepal’s warning system couldn’t outrun the catastrophic flood,” August 28, 2026 — https://bdnews24.com/world/south-asia/21f885071557 ; New York Times, “Speed of Nepal’s Flash Floods Likely Overwhelmed Warning System, Experts Say,” August 27, 2026 — https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/27/world/asia/speed-of-flash-floods-likely-overwhelmed-nepals-warning-system-experts-say.html

Nature assessment on early warning gaps, sensors above 5,000m sparse, China-Nepal data-sharing “inadequate to the pace of the changing hazard” — Nature, “Early warning could have saved hundreds of lives in Nepal floods,” August 27, 2026 — https://www.nature.com/articles/d44151-026-00167-w

Nepal’s National Adaptation Plan requires $47.4 billion by 2050; Nepal to contribute $1.5 billion, needs $45.9 billion externally — UNFCCC, “Government of Nepal — National Adaptation Plan,” 2021 — https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/NAP_Nepal_2021.pdf

Green Climate Fund disbursed ~$53 billion globally; Nepal received ~$253 million — My Republica, “Reaping Benefits from Loss and Damage Funds,” November 6, 2025 — https://www.myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/reaping-benefits-from-loss-and-damage-funds

Loss and Damage Fund opened for proposals in spring 2026, individual grants capped at $5-20 million — Nepali Times, “Global warning bell in Belém,” November 17, 2025 — https://nepalitimes.com/global-warning-bell-in-belem

70% of new fossil fuel expansion driven by the U.S., Canada, Norway, and Australia — UN News, December 26, 2025 — https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/12/1166649

933 hydropower workers among the missing on the Nepal side; damage at Rasuwagadhi, Chilime, Trishuli 3A and 3B, Trishuli hydropower station, and Devighat; 431 MW of installed capacity and 470 MW of planned capacity lost; Nepali army drilling into flooded tunnel, no communication established with anyone inside as of the weekend — Nepal News, August 30, 2026 — same URL above ; The Guardian, August 29, 2026 — same URL above

February 2021 Chamoli disaster: rock-and-ice avalanche off Ronti Peak, 200+ dead/missing, two hydropower projects destroyed — Science, “A massive rock and ice avalanche caused the 2021 disaster at Chamoli, Indian Himalaya,” June 10, 2021 — https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abh4455

May 2022 Shisper glacial lake outburst flood, Hunza Valley, Pakistan; heatwave-triggered; Hassanabad Bridge on Karakoram Highway collapsed — Columbia Climate School, “Bridge Collapse in Pakistan Due to Glacier Lake Outburst Flood,” May 13, 2022 — https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2022/05/13/bridge-collapse-in-pakistan-due-to-glacier-lake-outburst-flood/

October 2023 South Lhonak Lake outburst, Sikkim, India: 1,200 MW Teesta-III dam destroyed 68 km downstream, ~100 dead — Carbon Brief, “’Catastrophic’ 2023 lake outburst in India driven by glacial melt and permafrost thaw,” January 30, 2025 — https://www.carbonbrief.org/catastrophic-2023-lake-outburst-in-india-driven-by-glacial-melt-and-permafrost-thaw/

Scientists’ warnings not to build hydropower in unstable Himalayan valleys, published in peer-reviewed journals prior to disasters — Columbia Climate School, “Devastating Flood in Himalayas Highlights Risks of Development in Climate Change Era,” February 16, 2021 — https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/02/16/flood-himalayas-development-climate/

92.

$15.9 billion.

47% of American voters walked into a booth in 2024 and cast at least one ballot for the lesser of two evils. The oldest sitting U.S. senator is 92 and has not ruled out running again in 2028. The 2024 federal cycle cost $15.9 billion, which is the most expensive permission slip the donor class has ever written for itself.

We are 340 million people. Somewhere in that number, there is a better sentence available to us than “hold your nose and vote.”

The Phrase

The lesser of two evils. Hold your nose and vote. Vote blue no matter who. Vote red to save the country. Pick the one who scares you slightly less than the other one, drive home, and try not to think too hard about what you just did in there.

That is not a democracy. That is a hostage negotiation with a civic bumper sticker on it.

The trick is that the phrase does not describe the candidate. The phrase describes the ballot. The ballot has been narrowed, in a room we were never invited into, to 2 names willing to leave the same list untouched. When 47% of a country describes its own election in the language of coercion, that is not cynicism. That is a receipt.

I was listening to yesterday. Canadian. Talented. Funny. He said something in passing I have not been able to put down since: in Canada, it is just we. Not me. Canadians identify as Canadians. Other countries identify as one country. Americans identify as red or blue, me or you, mine or theirs, us or them, and the only pronoun the ballot has room for anymore is the one with a hyphen and a party name after it.

We have been so thoroughly sorted into 2 costumes that the sentence “we are a country” now requires a footnote.

That is not a governing problem. That is a language problem, and language problems are the ones that eat the country from the inside while the cable panels are arguing about the exit polls.

Both Costumes

Here is the trick both parties are running, and it is the same trick.

Democrats and Republicans raised a combined $14.3 billion in 2024. Corporate PACs poured another $756 million on top. That money did not arrive because both parties are so charming. It arrived because it was buying something, and what it was buying was silence on a very specific list.

Medicare for All. Housing as a right. A living wage. Universal childcare. Public water. Ending the corporate PAC racket. Ending AIPAC’s grip on foreign policy. Ending the war machine. Taxing the billionaires who bought the fence down in the first place.

Both parties will fight, viciously and expensively and on cable television 5 nights a week, over almost anything else you can name. Both parties are, on that list, in remarkable coordinated silence. It is the only thing they truly agree on, which is why it is the only thing that never gets to the floor.

That is the lesser of two evils. Not the candidate. The list neither costume will touch.

The DLC — the Democratic Leadership Council, the centrist Clinton-era operation that taught the party to chase corporate donors instead of labor — took the fence down starting in 1985 and forgot to put it back up. Citizens United funded taking it down further in 2010, and every dollar since has been Adelson’s $150 million, the Koch network’s $889 million, Peter Thiel’s $15 million for JD Vance’s Senate seat, and a hundred other checks written to make sure the fence stays exactly where the writers of the checks want it, which is on the ground. Republicans openly promise their donors what the donors want. Democrats promise their donors what the donors want and then apologize to us about it in a fundraising email later that evening, subject line something like “I need to be honest with you.”

Same fence. Two costumes. One settlement.

92

The 119th Congress is the 3rd-oldest in U.S. history, and it is not close.

Chuck Grassley is 92, has served for 50 years, and has not ruled out running again in 2028, which is a sentence I did not think I would live to write and yet here we are. Bernie Sanders is 84. Mitch McConnell is 84 and spent this summer in a hospital bed. Nancy Pelosi is 85. Steny Hoyer is 86. Hal Rogers is 87. 24 sitting members of Congress are 80 or older. More than half of them have already filed to run again, because retirement is for people who did not spend the last 40 years arranging things so they would never have to.

The median American is 39. The median American worker is 42. The room writing the country’s laws is 20 to 30 years older than the country it is writing them for. That is not a demographic curiosity. That is the reason the country’s laws sound like they were written for a country that no longer exists, addressed to a citizen who is no longer alive.

We cap commercial airline pilots at 65. We cap air traffic controllers at 56. We cap FBI agents at 57. We do this because we decided, as a country, that certain jobs require the person doing them to be awake, current, and able to respond to a crisis in real time. Not next Tuesday. Not after the caucus meeting. Not in the memoir.

Then we hand federal law and the nuclear codes to an 80-year-old, and when somebody points out that the same standard might apply to the person deciding whether the pilot’s mother has Medicaid, we are told the objection is ageist.

It is not ageist. It is arithmetic.

80% of Americans support age caps for Congress. 83% for the Senate. 79% for the presidency. 78% for the Supreme Court. Republicans, Democrats, and independents all cross 69% on every single number, which is what actual national consensus looks like when it is allowed to exist. Neither party will touch it. The people who would have to vote on it are the people it would remove. That is not a coincidence. That is the job doing exactly what the donors paid for it to do.

The Fix

We stop treating “lesser of two evils” as a personality quirk of the electorate and start treating it as a design flaw in the ballot. Then we fix the ballot.

Cap the ages. 75 for Congress. 75 for the presidency. 75 for the Supreme Court. Cognitive and physical screening on the front end, defined removal on the back end. Same standard we hold every other high-stakes federal job to. Not cruelty — courtesy. The pilot clears the bar. The person deciding whether the pilot’s mother has Medicaid can clear it too.

Term-limit Congress. 12 years total, in either chamber, in any combination. 84% of Americans agree. Chuck Grassley has been in Congress for 50 years. Ed Markey, 48. Ron Wyden and Chuck Schumer, 44 apiece. Hal Rogers, 44. Steny Hoyer, 44. Mitch McConnell, 40. Those are not careers. Those are dynasties. Dynasties do not represent. Dynasties inherit.

Open the ballot. Ranked-choice voting in every federal race. Open primaries in every state. 45% of the country is independent — the largest bloc in American politics — and the ballot should look like the country instead of like the 2 costumes the donor class bought us in 1985 and has been renting to us at a markup ever since.

Fund the campaigns ourselves. Every qualifying candidate gets a fixed public allotment out of our tax dollars, scaled to the office. A set amount for a House seat. A larger set amount for a Senate seat. A larger one still for the presidency. Same number for every candidate on that ballot line, regardless of party, regardless of last name, regardless of who their father was. On top of that public floor, grassroots donations only — small-dollar, capped, from real people with real addresses. That is the whole campaign budget. No corporate PAC. No AIPAC. No dark money. No lobbyist bundling. No billionaire super PAC laundering $150 million through a shell to buy a Senate seat and then explaining to a reporter that it was actually about “policy.” A candidate who cannot run on the public floor plus small-dollar donors is not running for us. They are running for whoever wrote the check, and whoever wrote the check will collect.

None of this is radical. All of it polls above 70% across parties. The only room where any of this is radical is the room the donors already own, which is, admittedly, most of the rooms.

The Kind Of People We Need To Elect

Not the polished ones.

We keep electing the ads. We elect the person who says the sentence the pollster tested at the dinner the lobbyist paid for at the steakhouse the reporter was invited to. We elect the person who has never actually been the person in the story they are telling. We elect the person the donor picked out and then feel personally surprised, 2 years later, when it turns out the donor is who they work for. Then we do it again. Then we call the exhaustion of doing it again “polarization,” which is a very expensive word for “we are choosing wrong on purpose and running out of time to keep pretending we do not know that.”

Here is what right looks like.

The people we need will have held a job that paid hourly. Not walked past one on the way to a photo op. Not written a memoir chapter about the summer they spent behind a counter. Held it. Punched a clock. Been written up for being 5 minutes late by a manager who was written up for being 5 minutes late. Made a schedule work around a sick kid and a bus that only comes every 40 minutes. You cannot legislate for a life you have never actually lived. You can only legislate for a story you were told about it, usually by someone charging speaking fees to tell it.

They will have been on the wrong side of a bill they could not pay. Not once, so they can put it in a stump speech. Long enough that the memory has weight. They will have stood at a pharmacy counter at 8 p.m. on a Sunday, watched the pharmacist ring up a prescription somebody they love actually needs, heard the total out loud, and walked out without the medication. They will know the sound the hospital hallway makes at 3 a.m., which is the sound of a country that decided its sick citizens should audition for care. The room in Washington where the vote gets cast is very far from that hallway. That is the point. You want the person casting the vote to have been in the hallway.

They will name their donors. All of them. On the website. On the yard sign if it fits. And when a check comes in from a name they do not recognize, they will trace it back, and if it lands at a hedge fund, an insurer, a private equity portfolio company, a pharmacy benefit manager, a Christian nationalist think tank, a Peter Thiel LLC, a Reid Hoffman LLC, a crypto exchange, or AIPAC, they will send it back. Loudly. In public. In a way that ruins somebody’s afternoon at a golf outing in Palm Beach.

They will read the bill before they vote on the bill. Not the summary the leadership sent. Not the whip note. The bill. If the bill is 1,200 pages and got dropped on their desk 4 hours before the vote, they will vote no and say publicly that no human being can honestly vote on a bill they were not given time to read, and that if we keep pretending otherwise, the country will be governed by the staffer who wrote the summary.

They will fight their own party when their own party is wrong. Out loud. On the record. With the primary challenger already booking the venue. They will not wait for a safe seat. They will not save the courage for the retirement speech, because that is where every American politician’s courage goes to be politely tranquilized.

They will be under 75.

Zohran Mamdani in New York. Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. AOC. The Justice Democrats bench. Bernie’s 2016 platform, unfiltered. Every candidate the party establishment is currently spending millions to primary out of existence.

Those are the people the fence was built to keep off the ballot. Which is exactly why they are the people worth putting on it.

Ring-Fenced Capitalism

Capitalism, contained inside a fence, works. Capitalism, allowed to eat everything, kills.

Inside the fence go the things a human being cannot live without. Healthcare. Mental healthcare. Housing. Food. Clean water. Childcare. Education. A living wage. The physical safety of a woman’s body. Inside the fence, those things are priced honestly, delivered universally, and never touched by the profit motive — because when a market gets its teeth into a thing you cannot live without, the market will do exactly what it was designed to do, and what it was designed to do will eventually kill you. On purpose. That is not a bug in capitalism. That is capitalism finishing the sentence.

Outside the fence go the things that make a life more pleasant but not possible. Sneakers. Streaming. Whiskey. Concert tickets. Handbags. Outside the fence, compete. Innovate. Fail. Get rich. I am a capitalist too, outside the fence.

Two zones. One rule about which is which. It is not complicated. It has just been paid for repeatedly to seem complicated.

Stop asking which candidate you dislike less. Start asking which one moves the fence, and which one is being paid to keep it down. The answer will get very clear, very quickly, and you will not need a pundit to translate it for you.

Stop

Stop flirting with the party that stopped speaking for you in 1985 and started speaking for its donors and calling it strategy.

Stop flirting with the pundit who told you these are your only 2 options and cashed the check to say it on television.

Stop flirting with the family member who says you are being naive for wanting the country most Americans, across parties, already say they want.

Stop flirting with the version of you that keeps holding its nose and voting anyway, and stop calling the flinch civic duty.

The lesser of two evils is still evil. It is the one the donors were willing to let you see.

When the 2 names on your ballot are both flawed, vote for the one closer to the list. The next morning, start recruiting the one who is closer still — for the school board, the state house, the county commission, the congressional primary 2 years out. Build the fence in your county before you demand the fence in Washington.

That is the job. That is the whole job.

You are the judge. You always were.

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Subscribe. Then go build the fence in your county.

Sources

FairVote / Citizen Data, “47% of Voters Feel They Voted for Lesser of Two Evils in 2024” (Dec 2024) — fairvote.org

Gallup, “New High of 45% in U.S. Identify as Political Independents” (Jan 2026) — news.gallup.com

OpenSecrets, 2024 cycle summary, $15.9 billion total — opensecrets.org

Congressional Research Service, “Membership of the 119th Congress: A Profile” (Aug 2025) — congress.gov

NBC News, “24 members of Congress are 80 or older” (Jan 2026) — nbcnews.com

Newsweek, “Lindsey Graham dead at 71: Full list of senators beyond retirement age” (Jul 2026) — newsweek.com

Quorum, “Longest Serving Members of Congress” and “Average Age of Congress 2025” — quorum.us

NPR / PBS News / Marist poll, age caps and term limits (May 2026) — npr.org

Change Research, “Voters Back Age Limits for Government Officials” (Aug 2026) — changeresearch.com

We made it. It is Friday. The coffee is hot. My kids are still asleep. It is 3 a.m. in rural Kansas and I have 13 tabs open because yesterday was the biggest news day of a very long week. Monday I filed on the ballroom that the Chief Justice would not stop. Tuesday I filed on the sanctions package that skipped Binance. Wednesday I stopped mid-sentence to bury Dolly Parton. Thursday I filed on a President who posted a one-star Yelp review of his own party. And Thursday afternoon while I was doing that, five different receipts were being written for me to file on Friday. Somewhere in a nicer time zone somebody is buying peaches at a farmer’s market. Here we go.

A federal judge in San Francisco spent 59 pages explaining why the Department of War broke the law when it tried to destroy an American company for refusing to help build autonomous killing machines. A federal judge in Boston stopped the Postal Service from carrying out President Trump’s plan to restrict mail-in ballots six days before the first ones go out. Immigration and Customs Enforcement signed a $16.7 million no-bid contract for six thousand pairs of electric shock gloves. A grand jury report leaked showing that Ron DeSantis’s administration ran $10 million in Medicaid settlement money through his wife’s charity and into political committees that fought marijuana legalization in a state where more than 2 million children rely on Medicaid.

And the pettiest man ever to hold the office signed an executive order renaming Lake Ontario “Lake America.” Our country is falling apart and the President of the United States has his god damn crayons out drawing on a map of a lake. We are the laughing stock of the world.

One of these things is not like the others. You can guess which one. That is the point.

Let’s go.

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The Empty Invocation

Judge Rita Lin sits on the federal bench in the Northern District of California. She was appointed by Joe Biden. On Thursday, August 27, 2026, she issued a 59-page order finding that Pete Hegseth’s Department of War broke the First Amendment, broke the Fifth Amendment, and broke the governing federal statute when it tried to blacklist Anthropic, the American AI company that builds Claude.

Her words: “The empty invocation of national security is not a blank check to punish and retaliate against government critics.”

Her words: “The undisputed record shows that the challenged actions constituted unlawful retaliation in violation of the First Amendment, and that Anthropic was denied the pre-deprivation process required under the Fifth Amendment.”

Here is what Anthropic did to earn the blacklist. In February 2026, Hegseth demanded the company sign a contract clause letting the military use Claude for “any lawful purpose.” Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said no to two specific uses: mass domestic surveillance of Americans, and fully autonomous weapons systems that pick their own targets without a human in the loop. Every other military use was still on the table. Anthropic was already selling Claude to the intelligence community, to Central Command, to national security agencies. The company just would not agree to help build autonomous killing machines or comprehensive real-time dossiers on U.S. citizens.

The next day, February 27, 2026, Trump ordered every federal agency to immediately cease using Anthropic technology. Hegseth posted on X: “Effective immediately, no contractor, supplier, or partner that does business with the United States military may conduct any commercial activity with Anthropic.” Then the Department of War designated Anthropic a “Supply-Chain Risk to National Security.” That label had never before been applied to an American company. It was reserved for foreign adversaries — Chinese firms, Russian firms, entities suspected of being fronts for hostile foreign intelligence services.

The company Trump called “woke” and Hegseth called “left-wing nut jobs” got labeled a foreign-adversary-tier national security threat. For declining to help build autonomous weapons and mass surveillance.

Judge Lin, in her ruling: “Neither the Constitution nor the federal statute invoked by Defendants allows them to impose sweeping penalties based principally on Anthropic’s critique of the Administration’s views.”

Judge Lin, in her preliminary ruling five months ago: “Nothing in the governing statute supports the Orwellian notion that an American company may be branded a potential adversary and saboteur of the U.S. for expressing disagreement with the government.”

Hegseth is still the Secretary of War this morning. Trump is still the President. Neither has been sanctioned. Neither has apologized. The Department of War has not said whether it will appeal.

The company still has a second lawsuit pending in Washington, D.C. Air Force contractors are still being pushed toward a September 29, 2026 deadline to purge Anthropic software from their systems. Whether that deadline holds after Lin’s ruling is a question no one at the Pentagon has answered.

Set aside the AI part. Set aside Anthropic. The question the ruling decides is this: can the executive branch use national-security designations to destroy an American company that publicly disagrees with the administration. A federal judge just said no. In writing. On the record.

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Six Days Before The Ballots

Judge Indira Talwani sits on the federal bench in the District of Massachusetts. She is an Obama appointee. Thursday night she issued a 14-day nationwide temporary restraining order barring the U.S. Postal Service from carrying out key parts of a rule the Trump administration finalized August 21 to restrict mail-in voting in the November 3, 2026 midterms.

She had done this before. In June she blocked the Trump order in 23 states. On August 11 she expanded that injunction nationwide. On Monday of this week, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 to lift her August 11 injunction on procedural grounds — the majority said the plaintiffs had brought the case too early. On Wednesday she vacated her own injunction in a related case, citing the Supreme Court decision.

By Thursday morning, no court order in the country was stopping the Postal Service from carrying out the rule. That afternoon a new coalition of Democratic-led states and voting rights groups filed emergency motions. Thursday night Talwani issued the new temporary restraining order.

Her words in Thursday’s order: the Postal Service rule is “a likely unconstitutional regulation for which compliance is practically impossible as to the 2026 midterm elections, now little more than two months away.”

Here is what the rule would do. The Postal Service would refuse to deliver mail-in or absentee ballots to voters unless their state provided the federal government with voter roll information for citizenship verification. It would impose new ballot-envelope design standards, return-envelope standards, USPS portal registration requirements, and ballot-rejection rules. States would have to comply immediately. The first mail-in ballots for the November election are scheduled to go out around September 3, 2026.

A hearing to decide whether the block becomes a longer-lasting preliminary injunction is scheduled for September 3, 2026 — the same day the first ballots are due to go out.

The president signed the executive order in March 2026. Every single federal judge who has ruled on the merits has said parts of it are unconstitutional. Judge John Chun in Seattle in January. Judge Emmet Sullivan in D.C. in July. Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly in D.C. in January. Judge Talwani in Boston in June, August 11, and again yesterday.

The Constitution assigns the regulation of federal elections to Congress and the states. The president does not have authority to tell the Postal Service to deliver ballots only to voters whose information has been shared with the federal government. The Supreme Court’s 6-3 decision on Monday did not say the executive order was legal. It said the plaintiffs sued too early. That is not the same thing.

Six days before the first ballots go out. Nationwide.

“The empty invocation of national security is not a blank check to punish and retaliate against government critics.”
— Judge Rita Lin, U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, August 27, 2026

Roughly $2,500 Per Pair

Immigration and Customs Enforcement signed a $16.7 million no-bid contract Wednesday for 6,000 pairs of gloves that deliver electric shocks. The contract was formally posted Thursday. The math works out to roughly $2,500 per pair.

The manufacturer is Compliant Technologies LLC, based in Kentucky. The device is called the G.L.O.V.E. — Generated Low Output Voltage Emitter. It looks like a conventional patrol glove. When the officer flips it into “electrical mode,” it delivers a painful shock through direct contact with a person’s skin. The contract runs for six months.

ICE’s stated justification: “ICE does not currently have an empty hand use of force device to provide to the field amidst unprecedented levels of threats and violence against ICE officers and agents to help ensure they can de-escalate tense situations before they turn violent.”

Empty hand use of force device. That is the phrase in the procurement document. A device that turns an officer’s empty hand into an electric shock delivery system, classified as “conductive distraction and de-escalation.” The stated conditions for use: when a person is “actively or passively resisting” and the officer needs to gain control quickly.

Passively resisting. That is written in the ICE document.

The manufacturer’s manual says the gloves should not be used to punish people, should not be used on the elderly, pregnant women, small children, or “the severely handicapped,” and suggests limiting use to 15 seconds unless the subject becomes more violent. The manual instructs officers to “always give the subject(s) a reasonable opportunity to comply before force is used.”

Senator Catherine Cortez Masto and 15 other Democratic senators wrote ICE this week asking the agency to abandon the purchase. They said the device raises “substantial risks” during civil arrests — that is the phrase, civil arrests, meaning arrests of civilians who have not been charged with any crime — and that those risks are heightened without clear limits, adequate training, and comprehensive oversight. The senators asked ICE to disclose the rules for authorized use, the safeguards, and the procedures for reviewing deployments after the fact.

ICE has not disclosed any of those.

The gloves work by direct skin contact. They can be triggered without any visible weapon draw. A press conference photograph will not show them. A body camera might, if the officer is wearing one and if the angle is right and if the footage is released. Otherwise the record of what happened, when, and to whom will be whatever the officer writes in the report.

Roughly $2,500 per pair. Six thousand pairs. No competing bids.

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The Money Was For Kids

A Florida state grand jury report leaked to CBS News Miami on Wednesday, August 26, 2026, found that Governor Ron DeSantis’s administration “misappropriated” $10 million in taxpayer money — money that was supposed to pay for health insurance for poor children — and used it, through a “sophisticated scheme,” to fund political activities.

Here is what happened, according to the grand jury.

In September 2024, the state’s Agency for Health Care Administration reached a $67 million settlement with Centene, the country’s largest Medicaid contractor. Centene had overbilled the state on Medicaid. Under Florida law, that settlement money had to go into the state’s general fund or a Medicaid trust fund, where the legislature could see it and spend it on the people the Medicaid program is supposed to serve — including poor children.

$57 million went to the state. The other $10 million, at the administration’s direction, went to the Hope Florida Foundation, a state-created charity overseen by First Lady Casey DeSantis. The stated mission of Hope Florida is to move Floridians off government assistance and refer them to churches and local charities instead. In its three previous years of existence, the foundation had raised a total of $2 million.

Within days of receiving the $10 million, the foundation split it into two $5 million grants to political nonprofits called Secure Florida’s Future and Save Our Society from Drugs. Those two groups then contributed roughly $8.5 million to a political committee called Keep Florida Clean, chaired by DeSantis’s then-chief of staff, James Uthmeier. Keep Florida Clean spent that money to defeat Amendment 3, the 2024 ballot initiative that would have legalized recreational marijuana in Florida.

Uthmeier is now the Attorney General of Florida.

The grand jury’s finding: the $10 million transfer was “part of a sophisticated scheme to fund political activities.” The grand jury also found that no witness could identify who originally directed the money to Hope Florida, and on that basis concluded there was insufficient evidence to bring criminal charges.

Money that was owed to state and federal taxpayers, that under state law should have gone to fund Medicaid — the program that provides health insurance to about half the children in Florida — was instead routed through a first lady’s charity and into a political campaign against marijuana. DeSantis and Uthmeier called the grand jury findings a “baseless smear.” DeSantis, in Thursday’s press conference: “There was no diversion of any Medicaid funds. That was a private settlement where a company made a private contribution to a DSO affiliated with one of the state agencies.”

The grand jury report says otherwise. The Miami Herald’s reporting, based on the settlement document itself, says otherwise. A state official has publicly said she would not have approved the arrangement. And the Justice Department under Trump, per Fox News, has already declined to pursue a federal case.

Ten million dollars. That was owed to Medicaid. In a state where more than two million children rely on it.

Lake America

President Trump signed an executive order on Thursday, August 27, 2026, renaming Lake Ontario “Lake America.” He is mad at Canada.

Here is why he is mad at Canada. On Monday of this week, Ontario Premier Doug Ford held a news conference in Hamilton about the collapsed U.S.-Canada trade talks and said the President of the United States can “kiss my ass.” Ford called Trump a dictator and a bully at the same news conference. Later Monday, Ford doubled down on the kiss-my-ass line in a radio interview. Trump’s first Truth Social post threatening to rename the lake went up the next day. The executive order came Thursday. The Premier of a Canadian province told a sitting American president to kiss his ass, refused to walk it back, and Trump’s response was to reach for a map and a crayon.

The order directs Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and the U.S. Board on Geographic Names to update the Geographic Names Information System — the federal database of official U.S. place names — to remove all references to Lake Ontario and replace them with Lake America. Every federal agency map, contract, and document that mentions the lake must be updated within 30 days.

Canada will not comply. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney: “The lake’s name for Canadians will always remain Lake Ontario.” Ontario Premier Doug Ford: “He can change it to whatever he wants. But it will always be Lake Ontario to all Canadians and the rest of the world.” The lake straddles the U.S.-Canada border. The northern shoreline includes Toronto, the largest city in Canada. Trump can rename the lake for the purposes of U.S. federal agencies. He cannot rename it for anybody else.

Trump did the same thing in January 2025 with the Gulf of Mexico, renaming it the Gulf of America. Mexico did not comply. International mapmakers did not comply. Google, on maps served to U.S. users, did comply.

The stated reason for renaming Lake Ontario: Trump is in a trade war with Canada. On Tuesday of this week, he posted on Truth Social, “The United States is giving serious consideration to changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America in that we don’t expect to be doing much business with Ontario any longer.” He also called Canadians “nasty people” and threatened, at various points this year, to make Canada the 51st state.

The renaming does not accomplish anything. Not one Canadian tariff is affected. Not one American job is created. Not one supply chain is repaired. The order takes 30 days of Interior Department staff time to implement, and the Interior Department’s own general fund will pay for the publication costs. Congress does not need to be consulted. No committee reviews it. No agency signs off. It is a signature and a press event.

It is a distraction. It is also — and this is worth naming out loud — a signal about what the executive branch believes it can do to public property when the sitting president is angry.

The people who work at the Interior Department will spend the next 30 days updating databases and revising maps because the president is in a personal fight with a foreign leader. That is what federal employees are being asked to do this week. Not fill vacancies. Not administer parks. Not respond to disasters. Update a database because a man in the Oval Office is annoyed with a man in Ottawa.

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Also On The Wire This Morning

Five more stories broke overnight or Thursday afternoon. None big enough to lead. All big enough that a functioning press should not lose them.

The Kennedy Center board voted, again, to add Trump’s name to the building. A federal judge ruled in May that the name was added illegally and ordered it removed. On August 13 the board voted to put it back. Rep. Joyce Beatty asked a court to block the move. Trump’s own lawyers, in a court filing, acknowledged the renovations have “irrevocably damaged” the center. Beatty on the White House threat to demolish the building: “a breathtaking assault on the rule of law.” This is the third court order the administration is defying this week.

The Marine One near-miss was linked to the White House construction. The National Transportation Safety Board reported Thursday that the near-collision on August 4, when a commercial jet flew too close to the helicopter carrying President Trump, happened because the ballroom construction had displaced Marine One’s takeoff pad to the Ellipse, and radio problems kept controllers from stopping commercial flights. The ballroom that a federal judge could not stop, that Chief Justice Roberts declined to stop, almost caused a mid-air collision with the President on board.

A canceled offshore wind project is going to pay a Trump donor $900 million. The Washington Post reported Thursday that the administration’s deal to cancel offshore wind leases and redirect the money toward fossil fuel projects is generating a $900 million payday for a private-equity firm run by one of Trump’s million-dollar donors. Part of a $3 billion pattern of wind buyouts this year. Public money. Private beneficiary. Name on the check.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a secret trip to Moscow. The Washington Post also reported Thursday that a classified CIA assessment concluded Vladimir Putin sees the United States as weakened by the Iran war. Ratcliffe went to Moscow to try to dissuade Russia from testing NATO. Trump publicly said Thursday that Putin “is not going to be attacking a NATO territory.” European intelligence agencies told the Wall Street Journal they saw no sign of imminent attack, but the Journal reported Russia might test NATO with a “limited assault” within a few years. That is what “weakened by the Iran war” looks like at the classified level.

Rep. Chuck Edwards is arguing that an “affectionate friendship” is not grounds for censure. That is his quote. That is the defense.

The Pattern

Ten stories in one morning. The people in power spent $16.7 million on shock weapons without a bid, spent $900 million to pay off a donor, spent $10 million that belonged to sick children on a political campaign, and spent an unknown number of federal staff hours renaming a lake and re-inscribing a name on a building a judge told them to take down.

The pattern is not that they are winning. The pattern is that they believe there is no rule they cannot rewrite, no company they cannot punish, no court they cannot ignore, and no piece of public property they cannot claim.

And then, on the same morning, two federal judges and one grand jury said no. Judge Lin said no to blacklisting an American company for disagreeing with the President. Judge Talwani said no to a Postal Service rule that would keep ballots from voters. A Florida grand jury said the DeSantis administration “misappropriated” $10 million that was supposed to pay for children’s health insurance.

Three noes on a morning with ten stories. That is not enough. But it is what a functioning system sounds like when it is still functioning. The job is to make sure the noes keep coming.

What Are We Going To Do About It

Call your representative and both senators today. The district office numbers are on their websites. Somebody real answers the phone. Get your member on the record on four questions: the ICE shock gloves, the Anthropic blacklist, the Postal Service ballot rule, and the $10 million DeSantis routed through his wife’s charity. Then ask when the next town hall is.

Do not ask them about the lake. The lake is the distraction. The other four are the story.

If they will not answer, that is the answer.

PS

The Morning Receipt is my daily 5 AM briefing. It costs $6 a month, $60 a year, or $120 founding. The annual math works out to about $1.15 a week. That is cheaper than a cup of gas station coffee, and I read the 59-page federal court orders and the leaked grand jury reports, so you do not have to.

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You can also leave me a tip at: buymeacoffee.com/monicaandreasen

If you can pay, pay. If you cannot, forward it to somebody who can. That is how independent journalism survives in a country where the Department of War just tried to destroy an American company, the Justice Department declined to prosecute a state-level Medicaid scheme, and the president spent his Thursday renaming a lake.

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Sources:

Judge Blocks Pentagon Blacklist Of Anthropic As Supply Chain Risk — CNBC, August 27, 2026

US Judge Blocks Pentagon’s Anthropic Blacklisting — Reuters via WTAQ, August 27, 2026

Statement From Dario Amodei On Our Discussions With The Department Of War — Anthropic, February 26, 2026

Pentagon-Anthropic Dispute Over Autonomous Weapon Systems — Congressional Research Service IN12669, August 2026

Trump Directs US Agencies To Toss Anthropic’s AI — Reuters, February 27, 2026

Judge Blocks Trump’s Mail-In Voting Plan, Again — Politico, August 28, 2026

Judge Blocks Rule Implementing Trump Plan To Restrict Mail-In Voting — Reuters, August 27, 2026

Federal Court Grants Emergency Relief Blocking USPS From Implementing Newly Finalized Mail Ballot Rule — NAACP LDF, August 28, 2026

Federal Judge Blocks Trump’s Anti-Mail Voting Order Again — Democracy Docket, August 28, 2026

Supreme Court Allows Trump Administration To Move Forward With Order Imposing Restrictions On Mail-In Voting — SCOTUSblog, August 25, 2026

ICE Grants $16.7 Million Contract To Buy Thousands Of Electric Shock Gloves — CBS News, August 27, 2026

ICE Awards $16.7M Contract To Buy 6,000 Pairs Of Gloves That Deliver Electric Shocks — Associated Press, August 28, 2026

Grand Jury Finds DeSantis Administration “Misappropriated” $10 Million In Taxpayer Funds — CBS News Miami, August 26, 2026

DeSantis Administration Misspent $10 Million, Grand Jury Says — New York Times, August 27, 2026

The $10M Steered To Hope Florida By The State Was Medicaid Money, Document Shows — Miami Herald, April 22, 2025

Trump Signs Order Renaming Lake Ontario As Lake America — Associated Press, August 27, 2026

Trump Signs Executive Order To Rename Lake Ontario As Lake America — The Guardian, August 27, 2026

Honoring The American History Of The Great Lakes And Renaming Lake Ontario As Lake America — White House, August 27, 2026

Doug Ford Calls Trump A Dictator, Tells Him To “Kiss My Ass” — CBC News, August 24, 2026

Trump Threatens To Rename Lake Ontario ‘Lake America’ As Trade War Escalates — CBC News, August 25, 2026

Kennedy Center Board Decides To Inscribe Trump’s Name On Building — New York Times, August 13, 2026

Trump’s Bid To Inscribe Name On Kennedy Center Faces Renewed Court Test — Reuters, August 19, 2026

Marine One’s Close Call With Commercial Jet May Have Been Linked To White House Construction — Forbes, August 27, 2026

Marine One Crew Failed To Reach Air Traffic Control Before Safety Incident, NTSB Says — Military Times, August 27, 2026

$900 Million From A Canceled Wind Deal Will Benefit A Trump Donor — Washington Post, August 27, 2026

Putin Sees U.S. As Weakened By Iran War, Intelligence Reports Say — Washington Post, August 27, 2026

Trump Says Putin Will Not Attack NATO Territory — Reuters via Gulf Times, August 28, 2026

Chuck Edwards Argues ‘Affectionate Friendship’ Is Not Grounds For Censure — Washington Post, August 27, 2026

Meta cut the check on Tuesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon, 47 different state attorneys general were on camera calling it a monumental win for children. Almost none of them explained where the money is actually going.

That is because in most states, it is going to them.

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What The Deal Actually Says

Florida and New Mexico did not sign onto the multistate deal — New Mexico had its own trial ongoing.

The trial started August 12 in a federal courthouse in Oakland. It was supposed to run 6 weeks. It ended on day 8 with a settlement filed the morning of August 26. Meta agreed to pay up to $17.1 billion over 10 years to 47 states plus the District of Columbia and three US territories. Texas cut a separate $1 billion deal because Texas was not part of the coalition. Add a $459 million payment covering separate privacy claims and $75 million in litigation costs, and Meta itself described the total package as approximately $18 billion.

Meta also disclosed to shareholders that it will book about $10 billion in legal expense on its Q3 2026 income statement to reserve against this settlement. That is not $10 billion in additional payments to states or victims — that is Meta’s own accounting entry recognizing the liability upfront. It sits inside the $18 billion, not on top of it.

Only 70% of the money gets paid out no matter what. The other 30% — about $5.3 billion — is contingent. It gets paid only if YouTube and TikTok also settle with the states, agree to the same one-hour daily limits and age-assurance measures, and each match Meta’s payment share. If Google and ByteDance never sign a matching deal, that $5.3 billion never leaves Menlo Park.

The platform changes are the reason the trial ended. Meta agreed to a 2-hour combined daily cap on Facebook and Instagram for anyone under 18, with mandatory pauses after 15, 60, and 90 minutes of continuous use. Access blocked entirely between midnight and 6 a.m. Push notifications silenced from 10 p.m. to 7 a.m. and during weekday school hours. Likes hidden on teen posts. Cosmetic surgery and beauty filters banned for minors. Age verification required. An option for a non-algorithmic feed. An independent auditor. These changes go live within months. They stay in force for five years — or ten, depending on the feature. They are the win. They are real. They will help kids.

Everything below the changes is where the receipt gets uncomfortable.

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Where The Money Actually Goes

The settlement’s Exhibit 1 is 100+ pages of state-by-state instructions on how each participating attorney general’s office is allowed to spend its cut. It is a public document filed with the court. If you read it — which most of the reporters covering this did not — you find something that does not appear in the press conferences.

The money mostly does not go to kids. It goes to the AG’s office.

Rhode Island’s cut goes into the state general fund and is earmarked for youth mental health programming — that is a legislature getting the check. Colorado’s $615 million is designated for crisis intervention, after-school programs, outdoor activities, and youth mental health, administered by AG Phil Weiser through a grant process. New York’s up-to-$1.15 billion is going toward grants for phone-free classrooms, training for mental health professionals, and after-school programming, administered by AG Letitia James. Those are three states doing it more or less right — routing the money through structures that can be audited, with defined purposes tied to kids.

Now read the other ones.

Delaware splits its cut in thirds: 25% into a consumer protection fund the AG spends “for any lawful purpose,” 25% into a Department of Justice appropriation the AG spends “in the sole discretion of the Delaware Attorney General,” and 50% into a separate DOJ appropriation. Ohio’s payments flow into the state’s Consumer Protection Enforcement Fund and the AG’s General Holding Account. Pennsylvania’s money goes into an interest-bearing account called the Meta Settlement Fund, spent by the Office of Attorney General “for any lawful purpose.” Washington State’s AG carves off $5 million from every annual installment as reimbursement for the office’s own attorney fees before touching the rest, and the AG spends the remainder at “sole discretion.” Alaska splits its payment 50/50 between the general fund and a consumer protection account controlled by the AG.

California's $1.5-to-$2.1 billion is the outlier. California Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat first appointed in 2021 and reelected in 2024, is one of the lead negotiators on the multistate case and the primary enforcer of Meta's compliance going forward. His office negotiated most of the state's cut into a fund earmarked for prevention or remediation of mental health harms to California kids — but even then, the first two annual payments carve out $50 million each for the AG to grant "in the sole discretion of the Attorney General," another $30 million a year for four years to fund the AG's unfair competition and privacy enforcement, and $10 million to the general fund. Bonta's office is the one enforcing Meta's compliance with the platform changes. So it needs enforcement money. Fine. But that language — "sole discretion of the Attorney General" — appears in some form in almost every state's carve-out.

Kansas is at the bottom of the transparency ladder. The Kansas Reflector, Topeka Capital-Journal, and Kobach’s own press office all confirm: Kansas will receive more than $134 million, and the settlement routes it into two funds — the Public Protection Consumer Education and Enforcement Fund, and a separate consumer protection account for subsequent expenditures. Both sit inside the Kansas Attorney General’s office. Both are under Kris Kobach’s discretion.

Kansas law — K.S.A. 50-636(c) — says civil penalties recovered by the attorney general “shall be paid into the general fund of the state.” That is the default that would have put the money in front of the Kansas Legislature to appropriate. But a settlement is not a civil penalty judgment. It is a negotiated agreement, and the multistate AGs including Kobach wrote it to route the money into their own offices instead of the general fund, the legislature, or the kids. Since January 2023, Kobach’s Consumer Protection Division has reported $180 million in recoveries. In fiscal year 2025, $3 million of that went into state funds. The other $177 million did not.

What Kansas Kids Would Actually Get

Here is what $134 million would cover if it ever reached them. Kansas special education has been funded at roughly 75% of the 92% excess-cost reimbursement that Kansas state law requires since 2011. The shortfall is chronic enough that Lawrence USD 497 diverted more than $14 million out of its general fund last school year to cover it. Blue Valley diverted $16 million this school year to cover its own. The 2025 Kansas Legislature also tried to raid the Gannon-mandated base aid inflation adjustment to fund other priorities. Governor Laura Kelly line-item vetoed it on April 9, 2025, calling the maneuver an appropriation of funding that “likely violates” the Kansas Supreme Court’s Gannon ruling and “constitutionally underfunds our schools.”

The money to help Kansas kids exists. The legislature keeps trying to take it. Now $134 million more is about to sit in a fund controlled by the man who spent 8 years as Kansas Secretary of State trying to purge Kansans from the voter rolls. He held a press conference calling it a “monumental win for the children of Kansas.”

The children of Kansas are getting the platform changes. Kris Kobach is getting the money.

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What Countries Have Actually Done

Compare this to what other governments have done when Meta wrote them a check.

The European Union does not do settlements this way. It does fines under the Digital Markets Act and the Digital Services Act, and the fines go to the EU general budget — the same budget that funds every EU institution. The Digital Services Act, fully in force in February 2024, is the EU’s platform-safety law — it requires large platforms like Meta, TikTok, YouTube, and X to remove illegal content quickly, disclose how their recommendation algorithms work, offer an opt-out from algorithmic feeds, and stop targeting ads at minors. The Digital Markets Act is its competition-side twin, aimed at tying and self-preferencing by dominant platforms. In April 2025, Brussels fined Meta €200 million for its pay-or-consent advertising model. In November 2024, Meta paid €797 million for tying Facebook Marketplace to its social network. In September 2024, Meta paid €91 million for storing user passwords in plaintext. In late 2023, EU data protection authorities imposed a €1.2 billion GDPR fine for illegally transferring EU user data to the United States. That money does not sit in an attorney general’s discretionary account. It goes into the EU budget and gets appropriated by the European Parliament.

The DSA also empowers the Commission to fine platforms up to 6% of global revenue for violations, and 10% under repeat infringements. For Meta, based on 2024 revenue, that ceiling is $9.9 billion for a single violation. In October 2025, Brussels put Meta and TikTok on preliminary notice for walling off researchers from studying what their algorithms show children, with fines up to that ceiling on the table.

Australia has a different model. Its December 2025 social media ban for anyone under 16 is enforced by the eSafety Commissioner. Non-compliance carries A$99 million per violation — doubled from A$49.5 million in June 2026 after Meta, TikTok, Snap, and YouTube all showed up in the regulator’s first compliance report with what the commissioner called “significant concerns.” The Australian penalty is a fine paid to the Australian government. It is not routed to a state prosecutor’s discretionary fund.

The United Kingdom’s Online Safety Act, in force as of July 2025, gives Ofcom fining power of up to 10% of a company’s global qualifying revenue. Ofcom is a regulator, not a prosecutor. The money would go to the UK Treasury, and the enforcement is done by a body Parliament has to fund and oversee.

And then there is New Mexico. On August 7, 2026, a state judge ordered Meta to pay an additional $567 million — on top of $375 million already ordered — and to put every dollar of it into a court-supervised remediation fund. $420 million of the total is designated for treatment programs for kids already harmed, delivered through licensed clinical and behavioral health providers. Another chunk goes to teacher and health-professional training. The judge — not the attorney general — controls the fund. New Mexico is the model. New Mexico is what accountability looks like when the money is not routed through the office of the person announcing the win.

The United States has 47 state attorneys general who negotiated a $17.1 billion settlement with the largest social media company in the world. Almost none of them wrote the money’s destination the way New Mexico’s judge did. Most of them wrote it the way Kris Kobach did.

What This Settlement Isn’t

This is not a bad deal because of what Meta was made to change. The daily caps, the notification silencing, the age verification, the algorithm opt-out — those are the tightest set of platform reforms any regulator has extracted from Meta anywhere in the United States. They are not the tightest in the world. Australia banned under-16s from the platforms entirely. The EU's Digital Services Act already requires stricter algorithmic transparency and default protections for minors, backed by fine ceilings up to 10% of global revenue. But inside the American regulatory frame — where Congress has passed nothing, and the FTC has not moved — this is what tightest looks like. Bonta's office negotiated them. James's office negotiated them. Weiser's office negotiated them. They will help kids, they will save some lives, and they should be studied and replicated.

It is a bad deal because $17.1 billion changed hands in exchange for those reforms, and 47 attorneys general got to decide unilaterally where the money goes. In most cases they wrote it into their own accounts. In some cases they wrote it into structures with no auditor and no legislative oversight. In Kansas they wrote it into a fund controlled by a man with a documented $177 million history of not sending settlement money back to the state.

The federal government did not do this trial. Congress did not do this trial. The Federal Trade Commission did not do this trial. The states did it. That is the story of accountability in 2026 — federal enforcement has collapsed, so the states became the accountability layer. That is genuinely a good story. It is why California’s platform reforms are going to be enforced. It is why Kentucky and Colorado and New Jersey led the case with Bonta.

But when the accountability layer is 47 elected prosecutors negotiating settlements they get to keep, without a federal statute or federal court supervising the money, you get a system where the reforms are real and the payout is a slush fund. The reforms help kids. The payout builds staff at 47 attorneys general offices.

What Are We Going To Do About It

• Read your state’s settlement exhibit. Search “Meta settlement Exhibit 1” and your state name. The court filing is public. Find the paragraph that says where your state’s cut goes. If it says “sole discretion of the Attorney General,” that is your answer.

• Ask your state legislature what the plan is. In most states, the legislature has some claim on this money — either by statute or by appropriations authority. Kansas Democrats and moderate Republicans should be asking why K.S.A. 50-636(c) does not apply to this settlement.

• Watch for the New Mexico model. Judge-supervised remediation funds with clinical providers and mandatory audits are the version of this that works. Any state AG who says the courts should not be involved is telling you where they want the money.

• Notice which state AGs actually direct money to kids. Colorado, New York, and Rhode Island wrote it into structures with defined purposes and legislative oversight. Kansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Washington wrote it into AG discretionary accounts. Note the difference.

• If you want federal accountability, ask your senator why the FTC did not bring this case. The FTC has jurisdiction under Section 5 of the FTC Act. It sat this one out. Every dollar the states collected is a dollar the federal government could have collected and appropriated through Congress.

The Uncomfortable Truth Of The Day

The largest child-safety settlement in history was written by prosecutors who put most of the money into their own budgets.

The reforms are real.

The check clears to the AG.

Here is the part I do not love writing. This publication is reader-funded. There are no ads, no sponsors, no billionaires backing it, no algorithm working in its favor — in fact the algorithm has been working against it. Paid subscriptions and shares are way down this month, and I do not know if that is Substack’s new recommendation logic, the Notes feed changes, or something else. What I do know is that this work only continues if it is funded.

What you are reading took hours of source-checking, court exhibits from the multistate settlement, EU Digital Markets Act filings, Australian eSafety regulator reports, UK Ofcom guidance, and press office releases from 12 state attorneys general. Every essay on this page goes through the same process. It is not a hot take. It is a paper trail.

If you have been reading for free and this newsletter is something you would miss if it stopped, upgrade today. It is $6 a month, $60 a year, or $120 for a founding subscription, and the annual plan works out to about $1.15 a week. That is what funds the Monday-through-Friday morning receipts, the deep-dive essays all week, and the fact-checking that goes into all of it.

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If you are already a paid subscriber, thank you, and the single most useful thing you can do this week is forward this email to one person, restack it on Notes, or share the link on whatever platform you still use. The algorithm is not doing the work of getting this in front of new readers right now. Word of mouth is.

If $6 is genuinely too much this month — and for a lot of people right now it is — forward this to one person who can afford it and ask them to subscribe on your behalf. That is a real thing you can do, and it keeps the receipts coming for everyone.

Subscribe. Share. Forward. Restack. If you want independent, source-cited accountability journalism written from rural Kansas to continue, this is how it continues.

Sources:

Meta $17.1 billion settlement, 47 states plus DC and 3 territories, 10-year payout, Texas separate $1 billion deal, 70/30 payout split contingent on YouTube and TikTok, $10 billion Meta legal fees, platform changes (2-hour cap, 15/60/90-minute pauses, midnight-6 a.m. block, 10 p.m.-7 a.m. and school-hour notification silence, age verification, likes hidden, filter bans, non-algorithmic feed option, independent auditor, 5- to 10-year duration) — CNBC, “Meta settles social media addiction case for $16.7 billion,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/26/meta-social-media-trial-settlement.html ; Variety, “Meta to Pay $18 Billion in Settlement With States Over Child Safety,” August 26, 2026 — https://variety.com/2026/digital/news/meta-18-billion-settlement-state-ags-lawsuit-social-media-addiction-1236843725/ ; Reuters, “Meta reaches $16.68 billion settlement over social media case,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/view-meta-reaches-1668-billion-settlement-over-social-media-case-2026-08-26/

Settlement Exhibit 1 state-by-state fund allocation language (Alaska 50/50 general fund and AG consumer protection account; Delaware 25/25/50 split into AG discretionary and consumer protection funds; Ohio deposits into Consumer Protection Enforcement Fund and General Holding Account; Pennsylvania Office of Attorney General Meta Settlement Fund “for any lawful purpose”; Rhode Island general fund for youth mental health programming; Washington State AG carve-out of $5 million per installment for attorney fees, remainder “sole discretion of the Attorney General”; California $50 million/year AG discretionary grant, $30 million/year for four years for AG enforcement, $10 million to general fund) — Multistate Meta Settlement Exhibit 1, New York Attorney General filing — https://ag.ny.gov/

California Attorney General Rob Bonta announcement, $1.5 billion to $2.1 billion California share, funds earmarked for prevention or remediation of mental health harms to California kids, legislature and governor decide final allocation — Variety, August 26, 2026 — same URL above ; Politico, “Meta agrees to pay $17B, adopt kids’ safety features to resolve states’ lawsuits,” August 26, 2026

New York up to $1.15 billion, minimum $819 million; funds for educational and mental health services including phone-free classrooms grants, mental-health professional training, after-school programming — Times Union, “Meta may pay New York more than $1B under settlement,” August 26, 2026 ; New York Attorney General press release, August 26, 2026

Colorado nearly $615 million over 9 years, funds for crisis intervention, after-school programs, outdoor activities, youth mental health programming — Axios Denver, “Colorado set to collect $615M from Meta settlement,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.axios.com/local/denver/2026/08/26/colorado-meta-settlement-children-harm

Minnesota $214-307 million, Wisconsin up to $313 million, 9-year payout — CBS Minnesota, “Minnesota to receive up to $307M in Meta social media addiction settlement,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/meta-social-media-addiction-settlement-minnesota/

Massachusetts $366 million, Virginia $353 million, New Jersey $525 million, Georgia $100-135 million — Wall Street Journal, “Meta Reaches $18 Billion Settlement With 48 States Over Child Safety Claims,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.wsj.com/tech/meta-reaches-18-billion-settlement-with-48-states-over-child-safety-claims-cf725a2b

Kansas $134 million, settlement language directing Kansas payments to Public Protection Consumer Education and Enforcement Fund and consumer protection account both under Kansas Attorney General’s discretion, Kobach “monumental win for the children of Kansas” quote — Topeka Capital-Journal, “Kansas to receive $134M of $17.1B Meta settlement,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.cjonline.com/story/news/politics/government/2026/08/26/meta-to-pay-17-1b-to-kansas-others-for-social-media-harm-to-children/91474700007/

Kansas Consumer Protection Division: $180 million in recoveries since January 2023, roughly $3 million passed to state funds in FY 2025 — Kelley Drye, “State AGs and Consumer Protection: What We Learned From Kansas,” May 14, 2026 — https://www.kelleydrye.com/viewpoints/blogs/ad-law-access/state-ags-and-consumer-protection-what-we-learned-from-kansas

K.S.A. 50-636(c) — civil penalties recovered by the attorney general “shall be paid into the general fund of the state” — Kansas Statutes via FindLaw — https://codes.findlaw.com/ks/chapter-50-unfair-trade-and-consumer-protection/ks-st-sect-50-636/

Kansas special education funded at approximately 75.4% of the 92% excess-cost reimbursement required by K.S.A. 72-3422; Lawrence USD 497 diverted more than $14 million from general fund to cover the special education shortfall last school year — USD 497 2025-26 Legislative Priorities Report — https://resources.finalsite.net/images/v1765905081/usd497org/xmiotgcivmvnkwh3wxlh/USD497_Legislative_Priorities_Report_2025-26.pdf ; FY 2026 Kansas Governor’s Budget Report Volume 1 — https://budget.kansas.gov/wp-content/uploads/FY2026_GBR_Vol_1-01.16.2025-1.pdf

Blue Valley School District diverting $16 million in 2025-26 to cover special education shortfall — Stand Up Blue Valley, “2026 KsLeg session: School Funding,” April 25, 2026 — https://www.standupbluevalley.org/post/2026-ksleg-session-school-funding

Governor Laura Kelly line-item veto of Section 96(s) conditioning CPI-U funding increases in SB 125, “likely violates” Gannon ruling and “constitutionally underfunds our schools” quotes — 2025 Session Laws of Kansas, Messages from the Governor, SB 125 — https://www.sos.ks.gov/publications/sessionlaws/2025/Message-18-SB-125.html

EU Digital Markets Act Meta fine €200 million April 2025 for pay-or-consent advertising model, Facebook Marketplace tying €797 million November 2024, plaintext password storage €91 million September 2024, GDPR data transfer €1.2 billion late 2023 — CNBC, “The Trump administration is getting angry as EU Big Tech fines top $7 billion in 2 years,” April 10, 2026 — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/10/google-meta-big-tech-6-billion-euros-eu-fine.html ; EU Perspectives, “€3.77bn in fines: Last year’s Big Tech bill in Europe,” January 13, 2026 — https://euperspectives.eu/2026/01/last-years-big-tech-bill-in-europe/

EU Digital Services Act 6% of global revenue fining authority, 10% for repeat infringements, October 2025 Meta and TikTok preliminary findings for researcher access violations — Courthouse News Service, “EU threatens Meta, TikTok with billions in fines over research ‘black box’ around kids content,” October 24, 2025 — https://www.courthousenews.com/eu-threatens-meta-tiktok-with-billions-in-fines-over-research-black-box-around-kids-content/

Australia social media ban for under-16s in force December 10, 2025, initial A$49.5 million maximum penalty, doubled to A$99 million June 2026, eSafety Commissioner investigation of Meta, TikTok, Snap, YouTube — Reuters, “Australia toughens kids’ social media ban, doubles potential penalties for tech firms,” June 27, 2026 — https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/australia-toughens-kids-social-media-ban-doubles-potential-penalties-tech-firms-2026-06-27/ ; The Guardian, “Meta, Tiktok and Google under investigation for allegedly disobeying Australia’s social media ban,” March 31, 2026 — https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/mar/31/meta-tiktok-snapchat-google-under-investigation-australia-social-media-ban

UK Online Safety Act in force July 25, 2025, Ofcom fining authority up to 10% of qualifying worldwide revenue — GOV.UK, Online Safety Act — https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/online-safety-act

New Mexico Meta ruling August 7, 2026, additional $567 million on top of $375 million already ordered, court-supervised remediation fund, $420 million for treatment via licensed clinical and behavioral health providers, teacher and health-professional training component, judge-controlled distribution — BBC, “Meta told to pay another $567m in New Mexico child safety ruling,” August 7, 2026 — https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd7lz3wr2rlo

The President wrote a Yelp review of the party he leads yesterday afternoon. One star.

He did it on Truth Social, in between photos of the “President Donald J. Trump International Airport” signage he had made for an airport that is not renamed after him. There were photos of the White House ballroom that is not yet built. Side-by-side comparisons of himself to Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Photos of his parents. And there in the middle of all of it, he reposted a right-wing commentator named Matt Van Swol saying “I don’t think the GOP fully grasp how badly they are f*cking up right now,” followed by a list of grievances Trump chose to amplify: no accountability, no meaningful decrease in the deficit, lots of very long vacations and no work, no DOGE cuts, no SAVE Act.

The President of the United States, sitting there on the social media platform he owns, endorsing the position that his own party is fucking up. Then going back to posting fake airport signs. This is not a hot mic. This is not an aide. This is him, on the record, in public, saying out loud what everyone in the party has been whispering for weeks.

So let’s take him at his word. The Republican Party is fucking up. Here’s what he means.

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The Fed Governor Is Still There

By the end of business yesterday, Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s lawyer Abbe Lowell filed the response Dan Scavino had demanded from her by 6 p.m. It was a detailed rebuttal that called the White House case “untried and unproven allegations of criminal wrongdoing” and stated flatly that there is “no legally cognizable cause for removing her” from the Federal Reserve Board. The 21-day clock ran out and she is still a Fed governor this morning. The President said he would fire her and did not fire her, because his own lawyers know — and Lowell put it in writing — that the “mistakes on Cook’s mortgage applications indicating she was seeking a primary residence mortgage for a second home were inadvertent and were partly the result of errors on forms prepared by the lender.”

The lender wrote it wrong. That is the case the President staked Federal Reserve independence on. She is still there this morning, and he is f*cking up.

Meta Paid $17.1 Billion Two Days Into The Trial

Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach announced yesterday morning that Kansas will receive more than $134 million of a $17.1 billion Meta settlement, negotiated by a coalition of 47 states plus DC over allegations that Meta designed Instagram and Facebook to addict children. The trial that had been scheduled to run for 6 weeks ended on day 8. Meta agreed to a combined 2-hour daily cap for kids on Facebook and Instagram, feeds blocked between midnight and 6 a.m., notifications silenced from 10 p.m. to 7 a.m., notifications restricted during weekday school hours, robust age verification, real parental controls, beauty filters and visible like counts limited, and independent auditors assessing compliance. Meta also agreed to $10 billion in legal fees on top of the settlement.

State attorneys general did that. Not Congress, not the President. The platform changes are the win, they are real, and they will help kids.

Here is where the receipt gets uncomfortable. The $134 million in cash does not go to Kansas children, Kansas parents, or Kansas schools. The settlement language designates two funds where the Kansas money lands — the Public Protection Consumer Education and Enforcement Fund, and a consumer protection account for subsequent expenditures. Both of them sit inside the Kansas Attorney General’s office, under Kris Kobach’s discretion.

Kansas law — K.S.A. 50-636(c) — says civil penalties recovered by the attorney general “shall be paid into the general fund of the state.” That is the default that would have put the money in front of the Kansas Legislature to appropriate. But a settlement is not a civil penalty judgment. It is a negotiated agreement, and the multistate attorneys general including Kobach wrote it to route the money into their own offices instead of the general fund, the legislature, or the kids. Since January 2023, Kobach’s Consumer Protection Division has reported $180 million in recoveries. In fiscal year 2025, $3 million of that went into state funds. You can do the math on the other $177 million.

Here is what $134 million would cover if it ever reached the kids. Kansas special education has been funded at roughly 75% of the 92% excess-cost reimbursement that Kansas state law requires. The shortfall is so chronic that Lawrence USD 497 diverted more than $14 million out of its general fund last school year to cover it, and Blue Valley diverted $16 million this school year to cover its own. The 2025 Kansas Legislature also tried to raid the Gannon-mandated base aid inflation adjustment to fund other priorities. Governor Laura Kelly line-item vetoed it in May, calling the maneuver a move that “likely violates” the Kansas Supreme Court’s ruling and “constitutionally underfunds our schools.” The money to help Kansas kids exists. The legislature keeps trying to take it. And now $134 million more is about to sit in a fund controlled by the man who spent 8 years as Kansas Secretary of State trying to purge Kansans from the voter rolls.

So the check clears to Kris Kobach. He spends it at his discretion on what he calls consumer education and enforcement, which means whatever he decides those words mean. He held a press conference calling it a “monumental win for the children of Kansas.” The children of Kansas are getting the platform changes. Kris Kobach is getting the money. He is f*cking up.

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Both Kansas Senators Told The President No On The Beef

On Friday, August 21, the President announced he would wave 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef — roughly 660 million pounds — into the country over the next 90 days without triggering the normal out-of-quota tariff. It comes in three tranches of 100,000 metric tons starting September 1. He claimed he had secured “a commitment” from foreign exporters that the beef would be sold at 25% below current market prices. Then on August 26, his own White House proclamation put the entire 300,000-metric-ton allocation into the “other countries or areas” pool with no set-aside for any specific country. That means Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Nicaragua — the four countries that have seen the biggest surges in beef exports to the US this year — all get to compete for it. And there is no country-of-origin labeling on the finished ground beef, so consumers cannot tell where the meat in the package came from.

Here is why ranchers are furious. The American cattle herd is at multi-decade lows after years of drought, wildfires that wiped out pastures, the New World screwworm shutting down live cattle imports across the southern border, and elevated feed costs. Ranchers were finally starting to recover — for the first time in years they were profitable. The President’s plan floods the market with 660 million pounds of foreign beef at a discount. Cattle futures dropped the morning of the announcement. One South Dakota rancher told Reuters he was facing $250,000 in losses on cattle he had already bought. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association — which endorsed the President in every election since 2016 — said it was “disappointed by the President’s statement” and that “flooding the market with government-subsidized, below-market beef is not the way to rebuild the American cattle herd.” NCBA CEO Colin Woodall added that the announcement “throws cold water on the prospect of herd expansion and sacrifices long-term stability for short-term messaging.” R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard has been on Fox News telling the President’s own audience that imports are not the answer. The White Oak Pastures cattleman Will Harris said imports “should be a bridge, not a long-term replacement.”

And here is the part the President’s own Agriculture Secretary said out loud on CNBC in October 2025, before he signed the first executive order expanding Argentine beef imports by 80,000 metric tons in February: Argentina has “a foot-and-mouth disease issue.” That is Brooke Rollins, on the record, warning that Argentine beef could carry a virus the United States has not seen since 1929. Foot-and-mouth disease is one of the most contagious animal diseases in the world. Once it is here, it spreads through cloven-hoofed livestock — cattle, sheep, goats, pigs — in ways that can shut down US beef exports to every FMD-free country on the planet. The World Organization for Animal Health lists Argentina as a “FMD-free zone with vaccination.” But USDA regulations still classify the country as FMD-affected because Argentine cattle are required by law to be vaccinated for it — meaning the disease is present enough in the region that the vaccine is mandatory. Northern Argentina is only allowed to export deboned, matured beef under specific conditions. Brazil sits under the same restriction. Paraguay only became eligible in 2023. In October 2025, House Republicans led by Jason Smith sent a signed letter to Rollins and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer warning that expanding Argentine imports would “reintroduce avoidable animal-health risks.”

Jerry Moran and Roger Marshall — both Republicans, both from a state where there are more cattle than people — publicly told the President to halt the waiver. Moran asked him to “halt this action, listen to ranchers and let the free market work.” Marshall called this “the smallest cattle herd of my lifetime” and said “that’s where long-term solutions and federal policy should focus, not flooding the market with imports.” Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming, the number two Republican in the Senate, posted that “Americans want US beef on the table — not foreign imports.” Senator Tim Sheehy of Montana said he had “advised President Trump against this course of action for a year because American ranchers have been struggling against the packer monopoly for decades, and this will further harm them.” Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina called the waiver a “mistake.”

So the President’s own USDA Secretary flagged the disease risk. His own party’s House Agriculture leadership wrote him a signed letter warning about animal health. Five Republican senators including his Senate deputy leader publicly broke with him. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association broke with him. R-CALF broke with him. The American Farm Bureau warned him about the “fragile recovery” ranchers are experiencing. Cattle futures dropped the morning he announced it. He signed the proclamation on Wednesday to do it anyway. Ground beef is at $6.89 a pound, up 57% from 2021. Every credible analyst says 660 million pounds of foreign beef over 90 days will not meaningfully move the retail price at the grocery store, because ranchers do not control the retail price — the four meatpackers who slaughter 85% of US cattle do. Meanwhile, the President responded to his own senators by escalating a trade war with Canada — a 50% tariff on $20 billion in goods over the weekend, which Canada mirrored back — which will do more to raise grocery prices than 660 million pounds of imported beef will lower them.

His own party is publicly telling him to stop. His own Agriculture Secretary told him the disease risk exists. He is doing it anyway, and he is f*cking up.

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The CIA Director Went To Moscow And The President Said “Sort Of”

CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a secret trip to Moscow on Tuesday. The Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed the visit on Wednesday but said Ratcliffe did not meet Putin, and Peskov described US-Russia relations as being in “profound crisis.” When the President was asked about the trip, he said it “sort of” happened. Sort of. The CIA Director. In Moscow. If Barack Obama had done this the entire Republican Senate would still be talking about it in 2039. He is f*cking up.

All Of Lukoil Is Offline

Overnight yesterday, Ukraine confirmed a drone strike on Russia’s Lukoil-Kstovo refinery — Russia’s fourth-largest, second-largest gasoline producer, 17 million tonnes of oil per year. Reuters confirmed that the plant halted crude processing, and that all of Lukoil’s major refineries in Russia are now offline. All of them. The President spent Wednesday afternoon posting fake airport photos while Ukraine spent Wednesday morning taking Russia’s second-largest gasoline producer off the grid. That is what f*cking up looks like from the other side of it.

Also On The Ledger

Federal Judge Indira Talwani in Boston “reluctantly” lifted her own nationwide injunction against the Postal Service’s mail-in voting rule yesterday, saying Monday’s Supreme Court ruling left her no choice. The 95-page USPS rule requires states to hand over voter lists and use federally reviewed, uniquely barcoded ballot envelopes, or USPS will refuse the mail. 23 Democratic AGs filed a fresh lawsuit. The midterms are 68 days out. Senator Roger Marshall picked up the Kansas Farm Bureau endorsement yesterday, on the same day he broke with the President on beef. The Farm Bureau saw both. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro publicly declined HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s offer of federal measles assistance after 2 unvaccinated Lancaster County residents died.

Pull Quote Of The Day

“I don’t think the GOP fully grasp how badly they are f*cking up right now.”

— Reposted by the President of the United States, Wednesday afternoon, August 26, 2026, on the social media platform he owns, in between photos of the airport he renamed after himself.

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What Are We Going To Do About It

• Read what he posts. He tells on himself. He told on himself yesterday. He will do it again today.

• Notice which Republicans are publicly breaking. Moran, Marshall, Tillis, Barrasso this week. Note them.

• Notice what your AG is doing with the money. Kris Kobach— got Kansas $134 million from Meta yesterday, and the settlement routed it straight into his own office instead of the general fund or the kids. The states are the accountability layer now. That cuts both ways.

• Ask your senator about the beef import waiver. Both Kansas senators already said no. Yours can too.

• If you vote by mail, request your ballot now. The rule is going to move fast and the envelopes are the point.

The Uncomfortable Truth Of The Day

The President reposted “I don’t think the GOP fully grasp how badly they are f*cking up right now” between an airport photo and a ballroom photo.

He was talking about them.

They were fine with it.

That’s the party.

Here is the part I do not love writing. This publication is reader-funded. There are no ads, no sponsors, no billionaires backing it, no algorithm working in its favor — in fact the algorithm has been working against it. Paid subscriptions and shares are way down this month, and I do not know if that is Substack’s new recommendation logic, the Notes feed changes, or something else. What I do know is that this work only continues if it is funded.

What you are reading took hours of source-checking, four different news outlets to verify the Meta settlement numbers, USDA rule text on foot-and-mouth disease, Kansas special-education funding data, a line-item veto message from Governor Kelly, and Federal Register filings. Every receipt on this page goes through the same process. It is not a hot take. It is a paper trail.

If you have been reading for free and this newsletter is something you would miss if it stopped, upgrade today. It is $6 a month, $60 a year, or $120 for a founding subscription, and the annual plan works out to about $1.15 a week. That is what funds the Monday-through-Friday morning receipts, the deep-dive essays all week, and the fact-checking that goes into all of it.

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If you are already a paid subscriber, thank you, and the single most useful thing you can do this week is forward this email to one person, restack it on Notes, or share the link on whatever platform you still use. The algorithm is not doing the work of getting this in front of new readers right now. Word of mouth is.

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Subscribe. Share. Forward. Restack. If you want independent, source-cited accountability journalism written from rural Kansas to continue, this is how it continues.

PS — The airport is not renamed. The signage in the photos he posted is not real signage. He posted signage he had made. Of an airport. That is not named after him.

Sources

Trump’s Truth Social repost of Matt Van Swol, “I don’t think the GOP fully grasp how badly they are fcking up right now,” reposted Wednesday afternoon, August 26, 2026 — Forbes, “Trump Shares Rant About GOP ‘F---Ing Up’ As Republicans Criticize His Latest Tariff Moves,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/08/26/trump-shares-rant-about-gop-f---ing-up-as-republicans-criticize-his-latest-tariff-moves/*

Trump’s Aug 26 Truth Social afternoon rant contents (airport signage, ballroom construction, Obama and Biden comparisons, parent photos) — Forbes, August 26, 2026 — same URL above

Abbe Lowell letter to White House on behalf of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, “no legally cognizable cause for removing her,” lender-error explanation, August 26, 2026 — Reuters, “Lawyer for Fed’s Cook, targeted by Trump, says there are no grounds for dismissal,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/lawyer-feds-cook-targeted-by-trump-says-there-is-no-grounds-dismissal-2026-08-26/

Scavino Aug 6 letter to Cook, 21-day response deadline, August 26 response due date — SCOTUSblog, “Trump informs Lisa Cook that he is ‘considering’ her removal,” August 7, 2026 — https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/08/trump-informs-lisa-cook-that-he-is-considering-her-removal/

Meta $17.1 billion settlement, 47 states plus DC, Kansas $134 million, trial Day 8, hard daily time limits, night/school-hour restrictions, age verification, $10 billion in legal fees, 10-year payout — Topeka Capital-Journal, “Kansas to receive $134M of $17.1B Meta settlement,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.cjonline.com/story/news/politics/government/2026/08/26/meta-to-pay-17-1b-to-kansas-others-for-social-media-harm-to-children/91474700007/ ; Al Jazeera, “Meta agrees to settlement, platform changes in youth addiction case,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/8/26/meta-agrees-to-settlement-platform-changes-in-youth-addiction-case ; NPR, “Meta to pay up to $17 billion to settle child safety lawsuit,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.npr.org/2026/08/26/nx-s1-5944781/meta-settlement-child-safety-lawsuit

Kansas AG Kris Kobach announcement, “monumental win” quote, settlement language directing Kansas payments to Public Protection Consumer Education and Enforcement Fund and consumer protection account — Topeka Capital-Journal, August 26, 2026 — same URL above

Kansas Consumer Protection Division: $180 million in recoveries since January 2023, roughly $3 million passed to state funds in FY 2025 — Kelley Drye, “State AGs and Consumer Protection: What We Learned From Kansas,” May 14, 2026 — https://www.kelleydrye.com/viewpoints/blogs/ad-law-access/state-ags-and-consumer-protection-what-we-learned-from-kansas

K.S.A. 50-636(c) — civil penalties recovered by the attorney general “shall be paid into the general fund of the state” — Kansas Statutes via FindLaw — https://codes.findlaw.com/ks/chapter-50-unfair-trade-and-consumer-protection/ks-st-sect-50-636/

Kansas special education funded at approximately 75.4% of the 92% excess-cost reimbursement required by K.S.A. 72-3422; Lawrence USD 497 diverted more than $14 million from general fund to cover the special education shortfall last school year — USD 497 2025-26 Legislative Priorities Report — https://resources.finalsite.net/images/v1765905081/usd497org/xmiotgcivmvnkwh3wxlh/USD497_Legislative_Priorities_Report_2025-26.pdf ; FY 2026 Kansas Governor’s Budget Report Volume 1 — https://budget.kansas.gov/wp-content/uploads/FY2026_GBR_Vol_1-01.16.2025-1.pdf

Blue Valley School District diverting $16 million in 2025-26 to cover special education shortfall — Stand Up Blue Valley, “2026 KsLeg session: School Funding,” April 25, 2026 — https://www.standupbluevalley.org/post/2026-ksleg-session-school-funding

Governor Laura Kelly line-item veto of Section 96(s) conditioning CPI-U funding increases in SB 125, “likely violates” Gannon ruling and “constitutionally underfunds our schools” quotes — 2025 Session Laws of Kansas, Messages from the Governor, SB 125 — https://www.sos.ks.gov/publications/sessionlaws/2025/Message-18-SB-125.html

Meta platform changes (2-hour daily cap, midnight-6 a.m. feed block, 10 p.m.-7 a.m. notification silence, weekday school-hour restrictions, age verification, parental controls, beauty-filter and visible-like-count limits, independent auditors) — Washington Examiner, “Meta agrees to pay up to $17.1 billion in ‘largest’ Big Tech accountability settlement,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/justice/4700794/meta-agrees-largest-big-tech-accountability-settlement/

Senators Moran and Marshall public opposition to 300,000-metric-ton foreign beef waiver, Moran “halt this action” quote, Marshall “smallest cattle herd of my lifetime” quote — Salina Post, “Kansas U.S. senators urge President Trump to halt ground beef imports,” August 25, 2026 — https://salinapost.com/posts/ab8c242f-9293-4d0d-a6d4-acb76d3ec53a ; Kansas Reflector, “Kansas agriculture, political leaders dubious of President Trump’s beef import strategy,” August 24, 2026 — https://kansasreflector.com/2026/08/24/kansas-agriculture-political-leaders-dubious-of-president-trumps-beef-import-strategy/ ; Kansas City Star, “Missouri and Kansas Republicans oppose Trump’s beef imports,” August 25, 2026 — https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article316996059.html

Senator Tillis “mistake” quote and Senator Barrasso “Americans want US beef on the table — not foreign imports” quote, plus 50% Canada tariff on $20 billion, Canada mirrored retaliation, ground beef $6.89/pound, 57% increase from 2021 — Forbes, August 26, 2026 — same URL as top

300,000 metric ton foreign beef waiver, 90-day window, 25% below-market pricing commitment, executive order within two weeks, three tranches of 100,000 MT beginning Sept 1, entire allocation placed in “other countries or areas” pool with no country set-aside — CNBC, “Trump to allow ground beef import without tariff,” August 21, 2026 — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/21/trump-ground-beef-import-tariff.html ; Roll Call, “Trump creates beef with ranchers over new import plan,” August 21, 2026 — https://rollcall.com/2026/08/21/trump-creates-beef-with-ranchers-over-new-import-plan/ ; AG Bull, “Trump Beef Proclamation Opens Quota to Brazil But Gives It No Set-Aside,” August 27, 2026 — https://www.agbull.com/trump-beef-proclamation-opens-quota-to-brazil-but-gives-it-no-set-aside/

US cattle herd at multi-decade lows due to drought, wildfires, New World screwworm, elevated feed costs; ranchers finally profitable; cattle futures dropped on announcement; South Dakota rancher facing $250,000 in losses; four meatpackers slaughter 85% of US cattle — Reuters, “’Not a happy Trump supporter’: Cattle ranchers hit by push to lower beef prices,” December 24, 2025 — https://www.reuters.com/world/us/not-happy-trump-supporter-cattle-ranchers-hit-by-push-lower-beef-prices-2025-12-24/ ; American Farm Bureau Federation, “Imported Beef Threatens Fragile Recovery for America’s Ranchers,” May 12, 2026 — https://www.fb.org/news-release/imported-beef-threatens-fragile-recovery-for-americas-ranchers ; Investigate Midwest, “US beef exports decrease, while imports increase under Trump,” August 5, 2026 — https://investigatemidwest.org/2026/08/05/us-beef-exports-decrease-while-imports-increase-under-trump/

NCBA CEO Colin Woodall “misguided effort” and “further harm” statements; R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard opposition; White Oak Pastures Will Harris “bridge, not a long-term replacement” quote — Roll Call, August 21, 2026 — same URL above ; Fox News, “The single crushing problem American cattle ranchers wish Trump would fix instead,” February 8, 2026 — https://www.foxnews.com/politics/single-crushing-problem-american-cattle-ranchers-wish-trump-would-fix-instead ; AP News, “US ranchers oppose Trump’s plan to import more Argentine beef and experts doubt it will lower prices,” October 21, 2025 — https://apnews.com/article/beef-prices-cattle-imports-trump-argentina-9f8e9efd6e74e958c586ea1e32797ba2

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins CNBC statement that Argentina has “a foot-and-mouth disease issue,” USDA APHIS classifying Argentina as FMD-affected because vaccination is required, last US FMD outbreak in 1929, World Organisation for Animal Health status as “FMD-free zone with vaccination,” Argentina FMD-free since 2000 by WOAH standards, northern Argentina restricted to deboned matured beef only, Brazil under same restrictions, Paraguay eligible since 2023 — Newsweek, “Trump admin warns Argentina beef might be diseased but US may still import,” October 22, 2025 — https://www.newsweek.com/trump-admin-warns-argentina-beef-might-be-diseased-but-us-may-still-import-10917370 ; Buenos Aires Herald, “US downplays purchase of Argentine beef due to alleged foot-and-mouth disease,” October 22, 2025 — https://buenosairesherald.com/world/us-downplays-purchase-of-argentine-beef-due-to-alleged-foot-and-mouth-disease ; USDA APHIS 2015 final rule and risk analysis 80 FR 37935 — https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2015-07-02/pdf/2015-16335.pdf ; USDA APHIS Federal Register, July 29, 2026 — https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-07-29/pdf/2026-15276.pdf ; Congressional Research Service IF10373 — https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IF/HTML/IF10373.html

House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith and colleagues’ October 29, 2025 letter to USDA and USTR warning that expanding Argentine imports would “undermine American cattle producers, weaken our position in ongoing trade negotiations, and reintroduce avoidable animal-health risks” — https://jasonsmith.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/USDA_USTR-Beef-Import-Letter-SIGNED.pdf

Senator Tim Sheehy of Montana statement that he “advised President Trump against this course of action for a year” — New York Times, “G.O.P. Lawmakers Rebuke Trump on Plan to Increase Beef,” August 25, 2026 — https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/25/us/politics/republicans-trump-beef-imports.html

Argentina, Paraguay, Nicaragua import surge; USDA year-over-year change data showing Argentina up 159% year-to-date — USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Imported Meat Passed for Entry In the U.S. by Country, week ending August 15, 2026 — https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswimpe.pdf ; NewsNation, “How much beef does the US import, and where does it come from?,” August 27, 2026 — https://www.newsnationnow.com/business/your-money/beef-us-imports/

CIA Director John Ratcliffe secret Moscow visit, Kremlin’s Peskov confirmation, no meeting with Putin, “profound crisis” quote, Trump’s “sort of” description — Fortune, “CIA Director’s mysterious Moscow visit,” August 26, 2026 — https://fortune.com/2026/08/26/cia-director-mysterious-visit-moscow-trump-putin/

Ukraine drone strike on Lukoil-Kstovo (NORSI) refinery, 17 million tonnes/year, fourth-largest Russian refinery, second-largest gasoline producer, plant halted crude processing, all major Lukoil refineries in Russia offline — Kyiv Independent, “Major Russian oil refinery in flames after drone strike,” August 26, 2026 — https://kyivindependent.com/major-russian-oil-refinery-in-flames-after-drone-strike-locals-say/ ; RBC-Ukraine, “Russia’s fourth-largest oil refinery halts processing after drone attack, Reuters reports,” August 26, 2026 — https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-s-fourth-largest-oil-refinery-halts-1787773930.html ; Militarnyi, “Russia: Wildberries Hub and Kstovo Oil Refinery Hit by Drones,” August 26, 2026 — https://militarnyi.com/en/news/russia-wildberries-hub-and-kstovo-oil-refinery-hit-by-drones-catch-fire/

Judge Talwani lifted second nationwide injunction against USPS mail-in voting rule, 95-page rule, uniquely barcoded envelopes, voter lists, USPS ballot refusal, 23 Democratic AGs new lawsuit — CNBC, “Federal judge lifts final block on Trump mail-in voting order,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/26/trump-usps-mail-voting-rule-lawsuit-states-supreme-court.html ; Democracy Docket, “Judge lifts second block on Trump’s mail voting order,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/judge-clears-way-for-legal-fight-on-constitutionality-of-trumps-attack-on-mail-voting/ ; NPR, “Trump mail-in voting ballots,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.npr.org/2026/08/26/nx-s1-5945260/trump-mail-in-voting-ballots

Kansas Farm Bureau endorsement of Senator Marshall — JC Post, August 26, 2026 — https://jcpost.com/

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro declined HHS Secretary Kennedy federal measles aid offer, 2 children died in Lancaster County — Straits Times, “Pennsylvania reports first US measles deaths in 2026 as outbreak grows,” August 26, 2026 — https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/pennsylvania-reports-first-us-measles-deaths-in-2026-as-outbreak-grows

Not 2, historically. Two, this Tuesday. Two, in Lancaster County. Two, unvaccinated. Two, the first measles deaths in Pennsylvania in 35 years and the first measles deaths in the United States in 2026. They died the same week the CDC confirmed 2,777 measles cases across 47 jurisdictions — the highest annual total in this country since 1991, when I was in middle school and George H.W. Bush was president.

Not since Bush was president has an American measles patient died in Pennsylvania. Not since the Berlin Wall was still standing. That is the news. Then this happened Tuesday.

That is the length of the runway we just used up.

Act One — Name It

The Pennsylvania Department of Health confirmed the two deaths on Tuesday, August 25. Both were unvaccinated. Both lived in Lancaster County, which currently sits at 87 to 88.5% kindergarten measles vaccination — comfortably below the 95% threshold epidemiologists say a community needs to stop the virus from moving through it. As of Tuesday, Pennsylvania had 393 confirmed measles cases across 29 counties, 70 hospitalizations, and roughly half of everything happening in Lancaster.

Lancaster reported 16 measles cases in all of 2025. It is now over 200 for 2026. That is a 12-fold increase in one county in one year.

The Wall Street Journal and the New York Times and Wired have all correctly noted that Lancaster is home to a large Amish and Mennonite population, and that vaccination refusal is more common in those communities. That is true. That is also not the story. It is a scene inside the story.

The story is that Lancaster County is not an outlier. Lancaster County is a preview.

Fifty of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties are below the 95% herd-immunity threshold for measles. The Philadelphia Inquirer identified one Lancaster school where fewer than half of 27 kindergartners were immune. Dauphin County, home to the state capital, sits at 86.8%. Berks and Lebanon counties are in the same neighborhood.

And Pennsylvania is not an outlier either.

Nationally, kindergarten measles vaccination coverage fell to 92.4% in the 2025-2026 school year, down from 95.2% before the pandemic. The kindergarten exemption rate hit 4.2% — the highest ever recorded in this country and the largest single-year jump in 15 years. Thirty-nine states are now below the 95% MMR threshold. Eighteen states are below 90%.

Before the pandemic, 3 states were below 90%. Three. Now it is 18.

That means roughly 280,000 American children entered kindergarten last year without documentation of a full measles vaccination series. Two MMR doses are 97% effective. At 92.4% coverage, actual immunity in American kindergarten classrooms is closer to 90%. That is not a rounding error. That is architecture.

I Just Found Out My Own District’s Number

I want to be honest with you about how I ended up writing this piece.

This morning, I emailed my kids’ school board and superintendent and asked for a single number. My district’s vaccine exemption rate. They sent it back the same morning, because it is a public record and they know it. Here is what they sent.

7.35%.

That is my rural Kansas school district’s kindergarten-through-12th-grade vaccine exemption rate. One in every 13 kids in the buildings my children walk into every morning has a vaccine exemption on file. It is nearly double what the state average was six years ago. It is above the national exemption rate — which is itself the highest ever recorded. When I broke it out by building, the number was worse in the older grades than the youngest ones, which means this stock of exemptions has been quietly building for years while nobody was looking.

I did not know that number before this morning. I have 2 kids in that district. I write about public policy for a living. And I did not know, because nobody had told me, because nobody is required to tell me, because in most American school districts the number sits inside a spreadsheet on the district nurse’s desk and stays there until a parent asks.

I am telling you this because I want you to understand where the fear starts. It does not start in Lancaster County. It starts at your kitchen table on a Wednesday morning when you decide to ask a question you should have asked years ago, and the answer comes back inside two hours, and the herd immunity math that has been abstract for a decade is suddenly a specific classroom your specific child sits in.

Do you know your district’s number?

I want you to stop reading this essay and go find out. This is your business. It is a public record. You do not need permission. You do not need to explain yourself. You do not need to be polite about it. Email your superintendent and your school board and ask them, in one sentence, for your district’s current kindergarten-through-12th-grade vaccine exemption rate. Ask them to break it out by building if they have it. Ask them the state average and the national average for comparison. Most states also publish the aggregate data through the state health department — Kansas through KDHE, Pennsylvania through the Department of Health, California, Colorado, Oregon, Washington all through their state portals, most of them searchable by school. But the fastest way to a specific answer for your specific district is a specific email to the people who work for you.

Go do it. I will wait.

If you came back and the number was 95% or higher, exhale. Your community is doing the work. You are riding on the shared account other parents have paid into. You still need to keep your own kids’ shots current, because immunity is a stock, not a one-time deposit — but your community has your back.

If you came back and the number is below 95%, welcome to the club nobody wanted to join. That is where I am. That is where most of America is now.

Here is what I did not do when I found out. I did not pull my kids from school. I did not draft a resignation letter to the school board. I did not panic-post.

Here is what I did do. I confirmed both of my kids’ MMR doses were on file with their pediatrician. I called my county health department and asked a nurse about an adult titer for myself, because a lot of us cannot actually document our own measles immunity — we assume the shot we think we got as kids still counts, and we assume our parents’ memory of a childhood illness is the same thing as a medical record. It is not. She told me the county draws one vial of blood, runs a titer panel, tells you exactly how much measles immunity is still in your system, and tells you whether you need a booster. Cost, if your insurance does not cover it: $50. She said that number is roughly what county health departments charge across the country. Call yours. I read every page of my district’s board minutes for the last calendar year, looking for the word “exemption.” I looked up my state’s exemption law to understand what a religious exemption in Kansas actually requires. (One parental letter. No renewal. No clergy signature. No denominational check.) My school board’s next meeting is already on my calendar. I go to most of them. This time I have something specific to say in public comment.

And I started writing this essay, because the last thing a rural mother should feel about a scared discovery like this is alone.

Act Two — Define It

Here is the number that matters, and here is what it means.

The measles virus has a basic reproduction number — call it R-nought — of somewhere between 12 and 18. A person with measles will, on average, infect between 12 and 18 unvaccinated people they come into contact with. That is why the herd-immunity threshold for measles is so high. Ninety-five percent is not a suggestion. It is the arithmetic floor below which the virus finds enough unprotected bodies to keep moving. Above 95%, an infected traveler walks into a grocery store and infects nobody. Below 95%, an infected traveler walks into a grocery store and infects a kindergarten class two days later.

The United States crossed that floor. Then it kept walking.

The country reported more measles cases in the last 24 months than in the entire quarter-century between elimination in 2000 and the beginning of 2025. Ninety-four percent of this year’s cases are outbreak-associated. Ninety-three to 94% are in people who are unvaccinated or whose vaccination status is unknown. Sixty-nine percent are in children and teenagers. Twenty percent are in kids five and under, who face a 10% hospitalization rate.

Measles was declared eliminated in the United States in 2000. Elimination is not a marketing claim. It is a specific technical designation from the Pan American Health Organization that requires no continuous domestic transmission for 12 months or more. The Texas outbreak that started in January 2025 and killed two unvaccinated children in Gaines County? Never fully stopped. 1,375 of this year’s 2,777 cases are traceable to outbreaks that started in 2025 and never ended. Only 6% of 2026 cases are import-linked. Ninety-four percent of American measles is now homegrown.

The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota published an op-ed in June that said the quiet part out loud. The United States has functionally lost its measles elimination status, and the time has come for public health officials to say so plainly.

The formal PAHO ruling was scheduled for spring. The US government asked for it to be delayed to November. When the CDC’s principal deputy director was asked about losing elimination status in January, he called it “a cost of doing business” and said some transmission is happening in communities “where parents have chosen not to vaccinate their children, and that’s their personal freedom.”

That is the head of America’s disease-control agency talking about a measles outbreak in progress.

Rural Kansas — where I live, where my kids go to school, where I opened that email — already ran this experiment. Eighteen months before Pennsylvania buried two people this week, a nearly identical outbreak worked its way north from Gaines County, Texas, into 10 counties of southwestern Kansas. Ninety confirmed cases. Eighty percent of them in children. Ninety percent unvaccinated. Eight hospitalizations. Zero deaths — this time. In Haskell County, fewer than 6 in 10 kindergartners are vaccinated against measles. Gray County sits at 66%. Twenty-two Kansas counties currently have kindergarten vaccination rates below 75%.

At the peak of that outbreak, in April 2025, the Kansas legislature passed a law restricting the authority of local health officials to respond to communicable-disease outbreaks. The state took away its own outbreak-response toolkit while an outbreak was still counting cases.

Nothing about the Pennsylvania deaths was random. Nothing about them was a surprise. The math has been printing this outcome for two years. What separated the Kansas outbreak from the Pennsylvania one was that no Kansan died. That is not a public-health achievement. That is luck. Luck is not a policy. Luck is what a mother running the numbers at her kitchen table at 5 a.m. is not willing to bet her children on.

Act Three — What The Fuck We Do About It

The federal government is not neutral on this outcome. The federal government is producing it.

In June 2025, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fired all 17 members of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices — the panel that has set the childhood vaccine schedule for decades — and replaced them with hand-picked advisers, several of them with documented anti-vaccine records. In late 2025, the reconstituted panel voted to stop recommending the combined MMRV vaccine for children under four and stripped it from the Vaccines for Children program that covers roughly half of American kids. In January 2026, HHS published a new childhood immunization schedule without consulting the panel at all. In March, a federal judge stayed 13 of the new appointments and rolled back the January schedule as “arbitrary and capricious.”

Kennedy told Sean Hannity in March that the measles vaccine “does cause deaths every year.” The Infectious Diseases Society of America says no deaths from the MMR vaccine have been documented in healthy children. In April, HHS quietly rewrote the ACIP charter to elevate “adverse-events monitoring” as the panel’s primary function — language borrowed nearly verbatim from a petition submitted by Kennedy’s former personal attorney on behalf of an anti-vaccine group run by Del Bigtree. In August 2026, President Trump signed an executive order directing HHS to split the MMR vaccine into three separate shots — a process pharmaceutical researchers say could take a decade — and directing federal contractors, grantees, and states to expand religious exemption laws.

On August 5, Kennedy told CNN that “parents should get their children vaccinated for measles.”

On August 25, two Pennsylvanians died of measles.

Both statements can be true at once. That is the entire operating principle of this administration on public health. Say one thing on camera. Do the opposite in the Federal Register. Let the two statements fight it out in the timeline while the pathogen makes its own decisions.

Here is what the resistance looks like, if you are reading this and asking what to actually do. This is not an abstract list. This is the list I made for myself at my kitchen table this week.

Ask your district for its number. Email your superintendent and your school board today. It is a public record and it is your business. Do not scroll past this bullet. If you do not know your kids’ school district exemption rate by the end of the day, you have chosen not to know.

Confirm your own kids’ MMR doses are on file with your pediatrician, and not just in your memory. Ask for a written record. If your kids are current, exhale. If they are not, book the appointment.

Get a titer check if you cannot document your measles immunity. Do not assume the shot you think you got as a kid still counts. Do not assume you already had measles because your mother says so. Your county health department will draw one vial of blood, run a titer panel, tell you exactly how much measles immunity is still in your system, and tell you whether you need a booster. Where I live it costs $50 out of pocket if insurance does not cover it, and the nurse I spoke with said that is roughly the national going rate. Immunity is a shared account and every deposit counts.

Read your school board’s minutes for the last year and look for the word “exemption.” If you find nothing, that is its own answer. Put the next school-board meeting on your calendar. Show up. Say the number out loud in public comment.

Call your state representative, not your congressperson. After the August 10 executive order, this fight is at the statehouse now. Most state legislatures will be considering religious-exemption expansions this session. If yours is one of them, that phone call matters more than any tweet you will ever write.

Support your local public health department. They are the people showing up at pop-up clinics at 8 a.m. on Saturday mornings holding vaccine coolers, and they are the people the federal government just spent 18 months undermining. Pennsylvania’s Department of Health has run 91 pop-up clinics this year alone. That is what an outbreak response looks like when the state hasn’t been legislated out of the way.

And when someone in your life tells you that vaccination is a personal choice, remember what a personal choice actually is. A personal choice is a haircut. A personal choice is a career pivot. A personal choice is what you order for dinner. A personal choice does not have an R-nought of 18. A personal choice does not walk into a Lancaster County kindergarten on a Tuesday and kill somebody by Thursday.

Measles is not a personal choice. Measles is a shared account. And the country just watched two people die because a critical mass of Americans decided the shared account was optional.

I am scared. I am telling you that plainly because I am tired of writing essays that pretend the writer is not scared. I opened that email this morning and I have not been able to think about anything else. 7.35% is the number that stopped my day.

Find yours. Then decide what you are going to do about it.

Elimination is a choice. We had it. We are un-choosing it. And there is no version of this story where the un-choosing does not eventually have a body count.

Two, so far, in Lancaster County. This week.

The next names will be somewhere else. Nobody in this administration is going to tell you where.

This essay took most of a morning — an email to a superintendent, a phone call to a county nurse, an hour with a Kansas exemption statute, and the two decades of watching this country decide which of its shared accounts to overdraw next. I quit the flower shop 3 weeks ago and bet on the writing. My paid subscribers have dipped since I made the jump, which is a hard thing to watch when you have 2 kids in a district whose exemption rate you now know by heart. I am telling you that because I would rather tell you than not tell you.

A paid subscription is $6 a month or $60 a year, and it is the reason I can spend a Wednesday morning on the phone with a county nurse instead of an afternoon on the flower shop floor. If money is tight, read anyway, share anyway, forward this to the parent in your life who has not looked up their district yet. Accountability journalism that only reaches the people who can afford it is not accountability journalism.

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If you are here to harass me, to threaten me, to message me about my tone, to tell me that a woman with a Substack does not understand public health: keep scrolling. I do not owe you a debate. I owe my readers the work. And I am not going to soften a single paragraph in a piece about dead children to keep an anti-vaxxer subscribed to my newsletter.

And if you are tired — tired of watching the herd immunity math that used to protect your kids get treated as somebody else’s personal freedom, tired of watching a Secretary of Health and Human Services tell one camera to vaccinate and the next camera the vaccine kills people, tired of watching public goods get privatized into extinction while somebody puts “parental choice” on a bumper sticker, tired of watching women reporters get run off the internet for saying obvious things about children who are now dead — welcome. You are in the right place. Pull up a chair. There is more coming.

Sources: Pennsylvania Department of Health; NBC News; ABC News; CNN; Washington Post; Wall Street Journal; Bloomberg; New York Times; Time; Scientific American; Wired; American Hospital Association; NewsNation; AP; Reuters; The Guardian; BBC; USA Today; CDC (Measles Cases and Outbreaks; SchoolVaxView); KFF; CIDRAP; Forbes; CNBC; Philadelphia Inquirer; Pittsburgh Post-Gazette; City & State Pennsylvania; LancasterOnline; Kansas Department of Health and Environment; Kansas Reflector; Medical Xpress; Kansas City Star; Wichita Eagle; Medical Society of Sedgwick County; KLRD Briefing Book 2026; Georgetown Center for Children and Families; STAT; Spencer Fane; Advisory Board; US News & World Report.

Good Wednesday morning! Dolly Parton died yesterday and what a loss.

She was 80. She died in Nashville, surrounded by family, after what her team called a brief battle with cancer. Four days earlier she told People magazine she had been having hard times with her health because she spent last year taking care of her husband Carl instead of herself. Carl died in March 2025. She wrote a song for him — “If You Hadn’t Been There” — and released it 3 days after his funeral. She died Tuesday.

She wrote more than 3,000 songs. “I Will Always Love You.” “Jolene.” “9 to 5.” “Coat of Many Colors.” Any 1 of them would have been a career. She had 6 decades of them.

She was also the funniest person in every room she was ever in, and most of the time the joke was on her. “It costs a lot of money to look this cheap,” she said, over and over, for 40 years. She meant it. She was in on it. She never pretended to be anything she wasn’t, and she never once asked anyone else to be something they weren’t either.

She gave $1 million to Vanderbilt in April 2020 to help fund the research that became the Moderna vaccine, got the shot on camera, and sang a jingle about it to the tune of “Jolene” because she knew her fans trusted her more than they trusted the government. She saved lives with a joke.

In 1995 she started Imagination Library because her own father grew up unable to read. It mails a free book every month to any kid whose family signs them up, birth to age 5. 30 years later it has mailed more than 300 million books to children around the world. Her foundation is still doing it this morning.

Her death is all over the news because it should be. She was one of the most decent people this country produced in my lifetime, and she used every dollar and every song she had to make it a little easier to be a poor kid in America.

We will get to the ledger. It is 3 a.m. and I have 11 tabs open — a Federal Reserve letter, a Boston Globe measles wire, a Los Angeles Times cattle piece, a Truth Social post about renaming a Great Lake, and 7 more. My kids are asleep. I am in rural Kansas because a president gave a sitting Federal Reserve governor 21 days to answer a mortgage-fraud accusation and the clock runs out today. Let’s go.

The Ledger

Today Is The Cook Deadline

By end of business today, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook’s 21-day clock runs out. On August 5, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino sent Cook a letter telling her that President Trump was “considering” her removal from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and gave her until August 26 — today — to respond to allegations that she committed mortgage fraud in 2021, before she was on the Fed, by listing 2 different homes as her primary residence on 2 different mortgage applications. Cook has denied the allegations. Her lawyer has called them baseless. Financial records reviewed by 3 news outlets appear to undermine the White House’s version. That is not the point. The point is that no sitting Federal Reserve governor has ever been removed by a US president in the 112 years the Federal Reserve has existed. The Supreme Court, on June 29, temporarily blocked Trump’s first attempt to fire her — and in doing so, told the White House it had to give her formal notice and “some opportunity to respond” before removing her. The August 5 letter is that opportunity. The 21 days is that response window. The Federal Reserve’s next vote on interest rates is 3 weeks from today, September 15-16. Cook is one of 7 governors. If she is fired this morning and Trump replaces her before the vote, the President has effectively taken direct control of the interest rate that determines what every American pays on a mortgage, a credit card, a car loan, a small business line, and a student loan. Cook’s response was due by close of business today through the Office of Presidential Personnel — a White House office, not an independent one, receiving a Federal Reserve governor’s defense. The alleged crime is punishable by up to 30 years in prison. The White House has not said what happens if she does not respond, or if she responds and Trump does not accept the response. What we know is that at some point today, a president who has publicly demanded lower interest rates for 8 months is going to make a decision about the woman who votes on those rates.

China Told Bessent No

24 hours after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stood at the Cash Room podium and announced what he called “an economic D-Day” against Iran, China said no. On Tuesday, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Beijing “will safeguard its own interests” and called the sanctions “economic warfare” that China “will not submit to.” The Washington Post ran the overnight headline “China pushes back on Trump’s ‘economic D-Day’ Iran sanctions.” China buys about 90% of the oil Iran manages to export, and the entire architecture of Bessent’s Monday announcement — the “secondary sanctions” piece, the threat to punish any country that keeps buying Iranian oil — was aimed at forcing China to stop. Iran, for its part, said Tuesday it will “resist” and accused Washington of having “suffered a humiliating” defeat in the 12-day war last June, when the US bombed 3 Iranian nuclear sites and Iran hit the US airbase at Al Udeid in Qatar. So on Day 2 of the largest Iran sanctions package in US history, the country holding 90% of the leverage said in public that it is not going to comply, and the country being sanctioned said Washington is the loser. The oil market closed down again yesterday. It does not believe Bessent either.

Lake America

At about 7 a.m. yesterday, the President of the United States posted on Truth Social that he is giving “serious consideration to changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America in that we don’t expect to be doing much business with Ontario any longer.” He then posted a map with “Lake Ontario” crossed out and “Lake America” written above it in gold letters next to an American flag. Lake Ontario is a Great Lake. It is 47% American and 53% Canadian. Canada does not need to agree with a renaming for the renaming not to work — the United States alone cannot rename a shared body of water any more than Canada could unilaterally rename the Gulf of Maine. Meanwhile, in the same 24 hours, the actual trade war moved: Canada announced Tuesday that its retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion of American goods take effect September 8, dollar-for-dollar. Steel. Dairy. Appliances. Farm equipment. Ontario Premier Doug Ford told the President he could “kiss my ass.” The President called Ford “Flunky Ford.” Prime Minister Mark Carney — the former central banker who ran both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England before he ran for office — said the American demands would “destroy our major industries.” An adult and a Truth Social post about a lake. I still wish we had Carney running the show here.

Two Children Died From Measles In Pennsylvania

The Pennsylvania Department of Health confirmed Tuesday that 2 unvaccinated residents of Lancaster County have died from measles — the first measles deaths in the United States in 2026, and the first measles deaths in Pennsylvania in 35 years. Both were unvaccinated. Health officials, citing privacy, did not release ages, but the outbreak has been concentrated among children in Amish communities in Lancaster County, which now accounts for 185 of Pennsylvania’s 393 confirmed cases this year. The US has now recorded 5 measles-associated deaths in the last 2 years — more than the combined total of the previous 3 decades. This is the worst year for measles in the United States since 1991. And here is the ledger line that made me get up at 3 a.m. and write this: Pennsylvania’s kindergarten vaccine exemption rate for the 2025-26 school year was 6%, above the national rate. The state’s kindergarten MMR coverage was 93.2%, down from 93.7% the year before. Herd immunity requires 95%. Lancaster County’s kindergarten MMR rate was 87.6%. Nonmedical exemptions submitted for Pennsylvania kindergartners have doubled in 5 years — from 2,993 in 2020-21 to 6,097 in 2024-25. 2 doses of the MMR vaccine provide 97% protection. It is free at every state health center for uninsured children. The doctor from Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia quoted in CNN’s story used 3 words. “Entirely preventable deaths.”

Beef Is A Political Story Now

A pound of ground beef in July averaged $7.116, up 9.4% from a year ago and 57% from 5 years ago. Uncooked steak hit $13.06 a pound, up 10%. The American cattle herd is at its lowest level since the 1950s — 86.2 million cattle and calves at the start of 2026 — because ranchers spent 15 years liquidating herds after a run of low prices in the 2010s, and then drought and high feed costs finished the job. On Monday, the border crossing at Douglas, Arizona reopened to Mexican cattle for the first time since screwworm disease closed it a year ago. On Thursday last week, the White House announced it would temporarily allow 300,000 metric tons of foreign beef into the country over the next 3 months without tariff — the President’s own administration admitting, in writing, that its tariffs made hamburger meat more expensive. The White House spokesperson blamed Biden. The USDA economist Derrell Peel, quoted in the Los Angeles Times, said the opposite: “There’s nothing you can do.” Rebuilding a cattle herd takes years — a calf born today does not become a steak until 2028.

And here is the part of this story nobody at the podium is going to mention. Congress repealed mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef in December 2015, after Canada and Mexico won a World Trade Organization case and threatened $1 billion in retaliatory tariffs. For 10 years since, the pound of ground beef in your cart has not been required to tell you what country the animal was born in, raised in, or slaughtered in. On January 1, 2026, the USDA’s new “Product of USA” rule took effect — but it is voluntary. A package that does not carry the label can be American beef, or Mexican beef, or Brazilian beef, or a blend of all 3 ground together at the packing plant. 300,000 metric tons of foreign beef are about to move through that system, and the consumer paying $7 a pound has no legal right to know which cow is on the plate.

Meanwhile the average grocery-store consumer, paying almost $7 for a pound of ground beef, is buying the same amount of it. Demand hasn’t dropped. American ranchers, according to the BBC’s reporting from South Dakota, are getting record cattle prices — and paying record costs for feed, fuel, labor, and equipment. They are not the ones getting rich either. Nobody in this supply chain is winning except the meatpackers. The next time somebody at the podium says inflation is over, ask them what a pound of hamburger costs.

Also On The Ledger

• Ukraine hit LUKOIL-Kstovo overnight. Russia’s 4th-largest oil refinery and 2nd-largest gasoline producer — 17 million tonnes of crude a year — is on fire this morning in Nizhny Novgorod. Ukrainian drones also struck a Wildberries logistics hub in Kotovsk, where 7 employees are reported dead, and the Astrakhan Gas Processing plant, which makes industrial sulfur used in explosives. This is the 2nd time Kstovo has been hit this year.

• NIPSCO Gary — the story closed. As of 5 p.m. Tuesday, NIPSCO reported 99% of Northwest Indiana customers had their power back — 374,400 of 374,500 households. 834 remained without power at 9 p.m. Central. The utility said it met its original restoration target. Day 14 became Day 14 on the number.

• The 30-year Treasury bond closed at 5.21% yesterday. The 10-year closed at 4.68%. The bond market is watching Cook.

Pull Quote

“These deaths are entirely preventable.”
— Dr. Paul Offit, Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, on the 2 Pennsylvania measles fatalities, August 25, 2026

What Are We Going To Do About It

1. Call your senator about Lisa Cook. Capitol switchboard: (202) 224-3121. Ask if they support Federal Reserve independence. Ask what the Senate will do if a sitting Fed governor is removed by the President today for a pre-appointment accusation. There is no template answer for this because it has never happened.

2. Call your pediatrician’s office if your child is behind on MMR. If you are in a state with philosophical or religious exemptions, ask your school district what the exemption rate is at your child’s specific school. That number is public. You are entitled to it.

3. Call your representative about the beef tariff carve-out. Capitol switchboard: (202) 224-3121. Ask why 300,000 tons of tariff-free foreign beef is fine when the President’s own tariffs on cars, steel, and lumber are supposedly protecting American workers. Ask when Congress is going to bring back mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef so that the $7 pound of hamburger has to tell you what country it came from. The answer is that hamburger is cheaper than principle.

4. File your public comment on the Roadless Rule rollback at Regulations.gov before the September 21 deadline. 45 million acres of forest still do not have a lobbyist.

5. Restack whichever one of these matters most to the person you are sending it to.

The Ask

Degreed journalist. 50 states, 65 countries. Writing from rural Kansas.

Every paid subscription is 1 more morning I spend reading the actual letter from a White House deputy chief of staff to a sitting Federal Reserve governor — instead of the summary. Dolly Parton mailed a book a month to millions of American children for 30 years. She did that with her money, on her time, because she thought a country ought to read to its kids. This newsletter is the same idea on a much smaller scale. If you want the next Receipt to land before the news does, the money means the most right now.

$6 a month. $60 a year. $120 for a founding subscription.

If the money is not there this month, restack it. Restacks are worth more to this newsletter than most people realize, and they cost you nothing.

You can also leave me a tip at: buymeacoffee.com/monicaandreasen

— Monica

PS — don’t forget to do one of these today:

1. Call your senator about Lisa Cook. (202) 224-3121.

2. Call your pediatrician if your child is behind on MMR.

3. Call your representative about the beef tariff carve-out. (202) 224-3121.

4. File a comment on the Roadless Rule at Regulations.gov. It takes 4 minutes.

5. Restack whichever headline lands hardest for the person you send it to.

Thank you.

Sources

SCOTUSblog, Trump informs Lisa Cook that he is “considering” her removal — August 7, 2026

The Washington Post, Trump renews effort to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook after Supreme Court — August 7, 2026

CBS News, Trump mounts new effort to oust Lisa Cook from Fed board — August 7, 2026

Bloomberg, Trump Again Moves to Fire Cook, Reviving Fed Independence Fight — August 7, 2026

Reuters, Trump reopens Fed battle at critical time for bond markets — August 11, 2026

Al Jazeera, China says will safeguard its own interests as US expands Iran sanctions — August 25, 2026

The Washington Times, China dismisses U.S. sanctions against Iran — August 25, 2026

The Washington Post, China pushes back on Trump’s ‘economic D-Day’ Iran sanctions — August 26, 2026

Reuters, Iran vows to resist widened US sanctions — August 25, 2026

Reuters, Lake America? Trump mulls renaming Lake Ontario — August 25, 2026

Axios, Trump turns Canada feud toward Lake Ontario — August 25, 2026

The New York Times, Trump Threatens to Rename Lake Ontario as Trade War Escalates — August 25, 2026

CBC, Trump threatens to rename Lake Ontario ‘Lake America’ — August 25, 2026

AP News, Canada strikes back at US with retaliatory tariffs — August 25, 2026

The Boston Globe, Pennsylvania reports first 2 measles deaths in the US this year — August 25, 2026

Reuters, Pennsylvania reports first US measles deaths this year as outbreak grows — August 25, 2026

CNN, Two people in Pennsylvania have died from measles — August 25, 2026

Axios Pittsburgh, Pa. kindergarten vaccine exemption rate tops national rate — August 20, 2026

Spotlight PA, PA measles cases increase as vaccination rates drop — May 11, 2026

Los Angeles Times, Reopening Mexican cattle imports won’t bring quick relief from record U.S. beef prices — August 24, 2026

Fortune, Trump admits tariffs tax America’s love for burgers — August 21, 2026

Fortune, Skyrocketing beef prices finally have Americans reaching their limit — August 16, 2026

BBC News, US beef prices have soared but farmers aren’t making bigger profits — August 5, 2026

Reuters, Dolly Parton, queen of country music, dies at 80 — August 25, 2026

NPR, Dolly Parton, one of country music’s most singular performers, has died at age 80 — August 25, 2026

The New York Times, Dolly Parton, superstar whose songs spoke to millions, dies at 80 — August 25, 2026

AP News, Dolly Parton, iconic songwriter, singer and philanthropist, has died at 80 — August 25, 2026

Militarnyi, Russia: Wildberries Hub and Kstovo Oil Refinery Hit by Drones — August 26, 2026

The Kyiv Independent, Major Russian oil refinery in flames after drone strike — August 26, 2026

ABC7 Chicago, Gary Indiana power outage update — August 25, 2026

Good Tuesday morning. It is 3 a.m. and I have 14 tabs open. Treasury press release SB0614. A Senate letter from Schiff, Blumenthal, Van Hollen, and Warren dated June 15. A Public Citizen data table. A Wall Street Journal investigation by Patricia Kowsmann. A ChainCatcher trading volume report. The NIPSCO outage map. The Kyiv Independent. Two OSINT Telegram channels I probably should not have bookmarked. It is Tuesday. I need a vacation. My kids are asleep. Somewhere in a nicer time zone, someone is on a beach. I am in rural Kansas reading footnotes because the Treasury Secretary of the United States stood at a podium in the Cash Room yesterday afternoon, announced “an economic D-Day” against Iran, sanctioned 60 entities across 5 sectors — and left out the one holding about 87% of the First Family’s stablecoin. That is the story. I do not have a crypto empire. I do not have a trust bank charter. I have this newsletter. Let’s go.

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The Ledger

Everything But Binance

At 1 p.m. Eastern yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent walked to a podium in the Cash Room and announced the biggest Iran sanctions package in US history — 60 companies, people, and ships across gold, aviation, technology, shipping, and digital assets. He called it “an economic D-Day.” He said “no one is above the reach of U.S. sanctions.” He did not sanction Binance, and Binance is the entire point. In November 2023, Binance pled guilty in federal court and paid $4.3 billion for processing almost $900 million in Iran transactions. Since then it has gotten worse. In June, 4 US senators wrote to Bessent alleging that Binance executives had allowed a sanctioned Iranian money mover named Babak Zanjani to route $850 million through the exchange in the last 2 years, and they asked for a full Treasury and Justice Department investigation. They are still waiting. Meanwhile, the Trump family launched a stablecoin last year called USD1 — there are about $4 billion of the tokens in circulation, and Binance holds about 87% of them, or roughly $3.5 billion sitting on the same exchange the senators just asked the government to investigate. In the last 17 months, $50 billion in USD1 has changed hands on Binance. The Trump family’s crypto company, World Liberty Financial, reported $57 million in earnings on the President’s 2024 disclosure form; Forbes estimated the number at $550 million by March; the United Arab Emirates paid $500 million for a 49% stake in the operation, and $187 million of that went to the Trump family. On August 14, 11 days ago, the federal banking regulator granted the Trump family’s crypto company preliminary conditional approval for a national trust bank charter — a federal charter for a Trump-family-affiliated crypto firm that we cannot find a precedent for in public records. So when Bessent said yesterday that “no one is above the reach of U.S. sanctions,” what he meant was 60 Iranian gold traders, shipping brokers, and Dubai middlemen. What he did not mean was the exchange holding $3.5 billion of his boss’s family stablecoin.

Canada Announces Retaliation This Morning

Canada holds a press conference this morning to name the American products it will hit back with tariffs on. Prime Minister Mark Carney — a former central banker who ran both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England before he ran for office — told reporters Saturday the retaliation will match the US tariffs dollar for dollar on $28 billion of American goods, and named the sectors: steel, dairy, appliances, farm equipment, paper products, and electronics. The tariffs take effect September 8. The US tariffs that triggered this took effect at 12:01 a.m. Saturday, and Trump used a 1930 law that no US president had invoked in 96 years to do it. Then at about 10 a.m. yesterday, Trump posted on Truth Social that on January 1, 2027, tariffs on all Canadian cars, trucks, auto parts, and steel will rise to 50%, up from the current 25%. He wrote, quote, “We don’t need Canada. They need us.” Ford and Stellantis stock each dropped 4% within the hour. Canada is the second-biggest trading partner of the United States, and last year the two countries traded about $872 billion in goods and services with each other. I wish we had a Mark Carney running the show here.

Gary, Indiana — Day 14

More than 1,500 households in Gary and Portage still have no power this morning. The outage started August 11 when a derecho hit Northwest Indiana with 99 mph winds and knocked out power for 374,500 customers — the largest outage in NIPSCO’s company history. NIPSCO originally promised full restoration by August 18, which was 7 days ago. The new target is 11:59 tonight, and the utility says it is “95% confident” it will meet the deadline — meaning there is a 1-in-20 chance thousands of Gary residents wake up Wednesday morning still in the dark. Gary is 75% Black. It is 30 miles from Chicago. Trump has publicly said he wants to send the National Guard to Chicago. He has not mentioned Gary.

Ukraine Hit A Major Russian Refinery Overnight

At about 3:40 a.m. local time in Russia, Ukrainian long-range drones struck the Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai — one of the top 3 refineries in southern Russia, refining 6.25 million tonnes of oil a year, or about 2% of Russia’s total refining capacity. Afipsky supplies gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to the Russian military. A fire broke out on the plant grounds. The regional governor confirmed the strike, and also confirmed that 2 civilians were killed and 2 others injured at a nearby railway station by falling drone debris, most likely from Russian air defense knocking inbound drones down over the town. This is the 4th major Russian energy strike this week, and since the beginning of August, Ukrainian drones have hit nearly a third of Russia’s major oil refineries. The war is 4 years, 6 months, and 1 day old today.

Also On The Ledger

• The 30-year Treasury bond closed at 5.23% yesterday — down slightly from Friday but still near a 20-year high. The 10-year closed at 4.70%. National debt is $40 trillion.

• Oil closed down 2% yesterday. WTI settled at $85.01, Brent at $91.99. The Treasury Secretary spent an hour on national television promising to cripple Iran’s oil exports, and the oil market did not believe him.

• National Guard troops in Washington DC carried loaded weapons overnight for the 2nd night in a row. About 2,300 troops from 8 states are patrolling the city at a cost of more than $1 million a day. Two academic studies have found no drop in violent crime.

• Iran’s currency hit an all-time low against the dollar yesterday. Iran’s new security chief Mohsen Rezaei warned Gulf states that if the sanctions escalate, “not even a single drop of oil will leave the region.”

• The Pentagon’s official Iran war casualty count is now 18 killed and 757 wounded — total 775. In late July, the database quietly dropped from 18 to 14 deaths and from 482 to 420 wounded overnight, before being partially restored days later. No one at Treasury or Defense has explained the discrepancy. Zero reporters asked about it at yesterday’s press conference.

Pull Quote

“No one is above the reach of U.S. sanctions.”
— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Cash Room, Treasury Department, August 24, 2026

What Are We Going To Do About It

1. Call your senator about Binance. Capitol switchboard: (202) 224-3121. Ask if they support the June letter from Senators Schiff, Blumenthal, Van Hollen, and Warren asking for a Treasury and Justice Department investigation of Binance. Ask why yesterday’s sanctions list did not include Binance.

2. Call the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency about the trust bank charter granted to the Trump family crypto company on August 14. (800) 613-6743. Ask how it was approved. Ask what conflict-of-interest review was done.

3. Call your representative about the Canada tariffs. Capitol switchboard: (202) 224-3121. Ask about the 1930 law the President used. Ask why doubling auto tariffs to 50% next January is not a tax increase on every American who buys a car.

4. File your public comment on the Roadless Rule rollback at Regulations.gov before the September 21 deadline. 45 million acres of forest do not have a lobbyist.

5. Restack whichever one of these matters most to the person you are sending it to.

The Ask

Degreed journalist. 50 states, 65 countries. Writing from rural Kansas.

Every paid subscription is 1 more morning I spend reading the Treasury press release side-by-side with the Senate letter and the public interest data — instead of taking the podium at face value. Bessent said “no one is above the reach of U.S. sanctions” yesterday. Binance holds about $3.5 billion of the Trump family’s stablecoin. Both things are true at the same time. If you want the next Receipt to land before the news does, the money means the most right now.

$6 a month. $60 a year. $120 for a founding subscription.

Subscribe now

If the money is not there this month, restack it. Restacks are worth more to this newsletter than most people realize, and they cost you nothing.

You can also leave me a tip at: buymeacoffee.com/monicaandreasen

— Monica

PS — don’t forget to do one of these today:

1. Call your senator about Binance. (202) 224-3121.

2. Call the OCC about the Trump family trust bank charter. (800) 613-6743.

3. Call your representative about the Canada tariffs.

4. File a comment on the Roadless Rule at Regulations.gov. It takes 4 minutes.

5. Restack whichever headline lands hardest for the person you send it to.

Thank you.

Sources

U.S. Department of the Treasury, Operation Economic Outcast press release SB0614 — August 24, 2026

NPR, U.S. unveils new economic sanctions to isolate Iran — August 24, 2026

Axios, Bessent unveils sanctions designed to cripple Iran — August 24, 2026

The New York Times, Trump Live Updates: Bessent Unveils New “Economic D-Day” — August 24, 2026

Public Citizen, Trump crypto World Liberty Financial Binance Iran sanctions — April 2026

Wall Street Journal, Iran Binance crypto military (Zanjani reporting by Patricia Kowsmann) — February 23, 2026

Reuters, How Trump’s crypto venture and Iran’s top exchange tapped into same industry networks — May 18, 2026

ChainCatcher, USD1 stablecoin trading volume update — August 6, 2026

U.S. Senate, Schiff-Blumenthal-Van Hollen-Warren letter to Bessent and Blanche on Binance — June 15, 2026

Senator Adam Schiff press release, Schiff leads probe of Binance routing funds to Iran-backed proxy groups — June 16, 2026

U.S. Department of the Treasury, Zanjani redesignation press release SB0375 — January 30, 2026

U.S. Department of the Treasury, Nobitex sanctions press release SB0519 — June 2, 2026

Reuters, OCC grants World Liberty national trust bank charter — August 14, 2026

ABC News, Canada to announce retaliatory tariffs against the US amid trade war — August 24, 2026

NPR, U.S.-Canada trade talks collapse — August 22, 2026

MarketWatch, Canada announces retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods — August 22, 2026

CNBC, Trump: Canada auto tariffs to hit 50% amid trade war — August 24, 2026

The Guardian, Trump announces new 50% tariff on Canadian cars, trucks and steel — August 24, 2026

Al Jazeera, Trump slams Canada with new 50 percent auto tariffs from 2027 — August 24, 2026

Yahoo Finance, Ford and Stellantis drop 4% as Trump sets 50% auto tariffs — August 24, 2026

NIPSCO, Storm Restoration Update — August 24, 2026, 9 p.m. CT

Capital B Gary, 25,000 Gary residents still without power after historic storm — August 20, 2026

Chicago Tribune, Indiana Gov. Braun calls for investigation into NIPSCO — August 21, 2026

NPR, Thousands in northwest Indiana still without power nearly two weeks after storm — August 23, 2026

Reuters, Russia’s Afipsky oil refinery on fire after drone attack, two dead — August 25, 2026

The Kyiv Independent, Major Russian oil refinery reportedly struck in Ukrainian attack — August 25, 2026

Militarnyi, Drones strike Afipsky oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai — August 25, 2026

UNN, The General Staff confirmed the damage to the Afipsky Oil Refinery — August 25, 2026

YCharts, 30-Year Treasury Rate — August 24, 2026 close 5.23%

Wall Street Journal, WTI settlement price — August 24, 2026 close $85.01

CNBC, Oil prices fall as U.S. rolls out global sanctions focused on Iran — August 24, 2026

NBC News, National Guard troops in D.C. begin carrying firearms — August 24, 2026

Al-Monitor, Iran says new sanctions threatened by “desperate” US will fail — August 24, 2026

CNN, August 24, 2026 live blog: Iran currency all-time low — August 25, 2026

Every node. Every facilitator. Every network.

Then the Treasury Department released the actual list. And it turns out Treasury mapped every node except one.

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The Five Sectors

Bessent’s announcement did two things at once. The first was a list of 60 entities, individuals, and vessels newly designated by the Office of Foreign Assets Control — mostly Hong Kong shell companies, a Swiss commodities firm, a Singapore group, a French cooking-oil refinery called La Nivernaise de Raffinage SAS that a Swiss arm of a Singapore commodities group tied to sanctioned Iranian shipping magnate Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani bought in 2024 to look legitimate. Standard stuff. Cutouts and fronts.

The second thing is what mattered. Bessent issued something called “sectoral determinations” against five sectors of the Iranian economy. That is the technical part. What it means in English is that starting Monday afternoon, any foreign business — any bank, any exchange, any trading firm — anywhere in the world that touches these five Iranian sectors can be cut off from the US dollar system.

The five sectors are: gold. Aviation. Technology. Shipping. And — for the first time ever — digital assets.

Digital assets. The English translation of that phrase is cryptocurrency.

The Treasury Secretary of the United States announced Monday afternoon that any foreign firm doing crypto business with Iran will be barred from the US financial system.

He named Iran’s largest state bank, Bank Melli, for mandatory shutdown. He said every branch of it around the world “must be shuttered and dark.” He said a “major financial institution” would be sanctioned by the end of this week and declined to name it.

He did not name Binance.

What Binance Is

Binance is the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. In November 2023 it pled guilty to violations of US anti-money laundering and sanctions laws and paid a $4.3 billion settlement — the largest in the history of the Treasury Department. According to the Justice Department’s own filings, Binance willfully failed to report more than 100,000 suspicious transactions from sanctioned groups, including Hamas’ Al-Qassam Brigades, Al Qaeda, ISIS, and users inside Iran. It processed $898 million in illegal Iran transactions between January 2018 and May 2022. Its founder, Changpeng Zhao, pled guilty personally and stepped down.

President Trump pardoned Changpeng Zhao in October 2025.

In February 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported that weeks after that pardon, Binance leadership shut down an internal investigation into $1 billion that had recently flowed through Binance to a network financing Iran-supported terror groups, and fired the employees who found it. Between March 2024 and August 2025 — while Binance was still operating under a US Treasury monitorship stemming from its 2023 guilty plea — entities tied to Iran received more than $1 billion through Binance.

That is the exchange the Treasury Secretary did not name Monday.

Why That Matters

In March 2025, the Trump family’s crypto company, World Liberty Financial, launched a stablecoin called USD1. President Trump owns it. His three sons own it. Steve Witkoff, the President’s special envoy for peace in the Middle East and lead negotiator with Iran, co-founded it.

USD1’s market capitalization is currently $4.25 billion. As of April, according to the Public Citizen report, Binance holds 84% of every USD1 in circulation — $3.56 billion. As of the most recent Fortune investigation cited in February, that share is 87%. As of August 6 this year, USD1’s cumulative trading volume on Binance passed $50 billion in the roughly 17 months since it launched.

$50 billion in trades. On Binance. In a coin the Trump family controls.

Four days before Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, an investment firm controlled by the deputy ruler of Abu Dhabi — a man who also serves as the UAE’s national security adviser — bought a 49% stake in World Liberty Financial. That deal routed $187 million to Trump family entities and $31 million to Witkoff family entities. It was kept secret for over a year. In May 2025 the same UAE-linked firm announced it would use USD1 to execute a $2 billion investment in Binance itself. The Abu Dhabi deputy ruler bought half of the President’s crypto company. He then used the President’s crypto company to buy $2 billion of the exchange that pled guilty to processing Iran sanctions violations.

The Senate is on record about this. On May 21, 2025, Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut introduced Senate Resolution 243. It declares that the MGX-World Liberty Financial deal is “a violation of the Foreign Emoluments Clause of the Constitution of the United States.” It has been sitting in the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs since the day it was introduced. It has not been voted on. On June 15 this year, four Senators — Adam Schiff of California, Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, and Elizabeth Warren, ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee — sent Bessent and Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche a joint letter demanding information about Binance’s role in facilitating $850 million in transactions for a sanctioned Iranian “anti-sanction operator” named Babak Zanjani, who was added to the US sanctions list on January 30, 2026, the month before the Iran war started. Their letter warned that Trump, his family, and Witkoff “could be financially enriched through their Binance-linked cryptocurrency venture while the Trump Administration engages in a military operation against Iran.”

They wrote that letter 71 days ago. Bessent has not responded.

The Rail Iran Actually Uses

Iran’s largest cryptocurrency exchange is called Nobitex. Treasury sanctioned Nobitex on June 2 of this year under a different Bessent program, Economic Fury. That was its own press release, its own podium day.

But according to Reuters, since 2023, Nobitex has processed at least $2.3 billion in transactions. That $2.3 billion did not move through a wire or a bank. It moved through two blockchains — Tron and BNB Chain. Tron was founded by Justin Sun, a Chinese-born billionaire who was under SEC investigation before Trump took office and whose case the administration paused in February 2025. BNB Chain was founded by Changpeng Zhao — the same Changpeng Zhao who pled guilty for Binance and whom Trump pardoned in October.

Both Sun and Zhao are “prominent backers” of World Liberty Financial. That is Reuters’ language, not mine.

So the rail Iran actually uses to move its cryptocurrency — Tron and BNB Chain — is the rail two of the largest financial backers of the President’s crypto venture built. It is the same rail the President’s stablecoin runs on. It is the same rail Binance sits on top of. It is the rail Nobitex used to move $2.3 billion. It is the rail Iran’s central bank used to move $131 million in July that Treasury froze — on Tron, in USDT — after the fact.

Bessent announced Monday that this rail is now covered by secondary sanctions.

Except when it isn’t.

What Bessent Did Not Do

Six things Bessent did not do at his 1 p.m. press conference Monday afternoon:

He did not sanction Binance. He did not name Binance. When reporters asked what “financial institution” he plans to sanction by the end of the week, he refused to say.

He did not sanction Tron or its parent entity.

He did not sanction BNB Chain.

He did not sanction any Chinese bank. The Reuters lead paragraph: “the Treasury Department stopped short of actually imposing penalties” on any of the Chinese financial institutions that facilitate Iran’s oil trade. Asked whether he was prepared to move against a Chinese bank, he said, “no one is out of the reach of US sanctions,” then declined to name one.

He did not name a single country that would face secondary sanctions. Bessent said every country has been given a “defined timeline” to shut down its Iran business. He would not name a country. He would not name a timeline. Reporters asked him three times.

He did not respond to the June 15 letter from Senators Schiff, Blumenthal, Van Hollen, and Warren. It has now been in his inbox for 71 days.

Then Bessent went back to his office. The 30-year Treasury bond fell about 4 basis points — closing at 5.23%, down from Friday’s 5.27%. WTI oil settled at $85.01, down about 0.9% at the close and down more than 2% intraday. Brent settled at $91.99, down about 2%. Oil kept flowing through Hormuz. Bonds kept selling off. An analyst at Edward Jones told Channel News Asia the day’s moves were “pretty muted.”

Muted, because the market can read a sanctions release.

The Family Business

Here is what I keep coming back to. In late 2024, before the inauguration, before Bessent had been confirmed as Treasury Secretary, before Operation Economic Outcast or Economic Fury or the war with Iran, the Trump family launched World Liberty Financial. Trump, his three sons, Witkoff and his sons. The Trump family entity, DT Marks DEFI LLC, holds 22.5 billion WLFI tokens. Trump personally holds 15.75 billion of them. Trump reported earning $57.35 million from World Liberty in the first three months of the venture, according to his 2024 financial disclosure. By March of this year, Forbes estimated Trump had netted $550 million from token sales personally. Forbes valued his ownership stake in the company at $240 million. His 2025 disclosure, released this June, reported more than $520 million from World Liberty token sales and another $250 million-plus from the sale of interests in the business — roughly $800 million from World Liberty alone.

Then in August of this year — 10 days before Bessent’s podium day — the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency gave preliminary approval to World Liberty Trust Company, an affiliate of World Liberty Financial, for a national trust bank charter. That is the charter Capital One tried to block last week and that a federal judge in Kansas ruled against on Friday. The one I wrote to you about Monday morning. The federal government is chartering a bank for the President’s family.

And on Monday afternoon, the Treasury Secretary of the United States announced that the crypto rails the President’s family’s bank sits on are now subject to secondary sanctions — for foreigners.

For the family that owns them, apparently, there is a different rule.

There is nothing in the OFAC press release, or in the Treasury press release, or in the State Department fact sheet, or in the White House talking points, that says Binance is coming next. There is a hint of a “financial institution” by the end of this week. Bessent will not say which one. Reuters is guessing a Chinese bank. Iran International is guessing the same. Nobody in the administration will say. That announcement, if it happens, will be Friday afternoon — the standard end-of-week news dump.

Whichever bank it is, it will not be Binance.

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The Bond And The Oil

You do not have to take my word for the market’s read. Here is what happened between 1 p.m. Monday, when Bessent stood at the podium, and 4 p.m., when the market closed.

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.23% — down about 4 basis points from Friday’s 5.27% but still historically high, only about 5 basis points below its 20-year peak from 2 weeks ago. Bessent’s own emergency bond buyback program has been running for a month. He has doubled it once. It is scheduled to double again on September 9. The Guardian on Saturday called that a “sign of weakness.” Monday’s yield print says the same thing.

WTI crude settled at $85.01, down about 0.9% at the close and down more than 2% intraday. Brent settled at $91.99, down about 2%. That is a market that moved but did not crash. It priced in a sanctions release that names 60 shell companies and one French cooking-oil refinery — and does not name a Chinese bank, does not name Binance, and has no enforcement mechanism against the two countries — China and the UAE — that actually buy Iran’s oil.

The market read the release. The market found Binance was not on it. The market went home.

What This Actually Is

Operation Economic Outcast is a real name for a real thing. But the real thing is not what Bessent said it was.

The real thing is a sanctions regime that carves out the two rails that pay the Trump family. It sanctions Iran’s Bank Melli — which the US has been sanctioning since 2018 — for the sixth or seventh time. It sanctions La Nivernaise de Raffinage, a French cooking-oil refinery. It sanctions Wellbred Trading, its Swiss owner. It sanctions Sweet Ocean, a Hong Kong laser-optics procurement network. It goes after 60 shell companies in China, the UAE, Singapore, Switzerland, and Europe.

And it declines to touch the exchange the President’s stablecoin sits on. Or the blockchain built by the man the President pardoned. Or the Chinese bank that could actually stop Iran’s oil sales. Or the country whose deputy ruler bought half of the President’s crypto company for $187 million.

That is not a coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world.

That is a sanctions regime with a carveout. The rules apply to everyone except the family that wrote them, and the exchange that pays the family that wrote them, and the pardoned founder of the blockchain the exchange runs on, and the countries that own stakes in all three.

Operation Economic Outcast. The outcast, so far, is the American public.

What Are We Going To Do About It

1. Read the actual OFAC list and the actual Treasury press release. It takes 20 minutes. The Trump administration is banking on the fact that most of the country will read only the White House talking points, which do not name La Nivernaise de Raffinage and do not name Binance because those are the two most inconvenient names on the whole document — one because it’s a punchline, the other because it’s the point.

2. Read Senate Resolution 243 and the June 15 letter from Schiff, Blumenthal, Van Hollen, and Warren. The Foreign Emoluments Clause of the Constitution is a real clause. Four Senators are on record saying the President is violating it. That resolution has been stuck in the Senate Homeland Security committee for 15 months. Ask your Senator whether they will vote it out of committee. If they signed the June 15 letter, tell them thank you and ask what comes next.

3. Call the Treasury Department’s public affairs line, (202) 622-2960, and ask them, on the record, why Binance is not on the list. They will not answer. Ask anyway. The Freedom of Information Act request that comes out of the fact that they refused to answer will do the work later.

4. When the “major financial institution” gets sanctioned Friday afternoon, look up whether it is Binance. If it is not — and it will not be — that is the story. Tell three people.

5. If you use USD1 or trade on Binance, understand what you are doing. You are moving money on a rail that the world’s largest exchange pled guilty to using for Iran sanctions violations, whose founder the President pardoned last October, and whose staff got fired last winter for flagging $1 billion moving to Iran. There are other exchanges. There are other stablecoins. Choose one.

The Ask

Degreed journalist. 50 states, 65 countries. Writing from rural Kansas.

Every paid subscription is one more Monday I spend reading the actual Treasury press release instead of the White House talking points. Bessent stood at a podium yesterday and named a French cooking-oil refinery. He did not name Binance. Somebody has to write that sentence down. If you want the next Receipt to land before the news does, the money means the most right now.

$6 a month. $60 a year. $120 for a founding subscription.

Subscribe now

If the money is not there this month, restack it. Restacks are worth more to this newsletter than most people realize, and they cost you nothing.

You can also leave me a tip at: buymeacoffee.com/monicaandreasen

— Monica

Sources

“US threatens countries doing business with Iran, but holds off on penalties for now” — Reuters, August 24, 2026 — https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-treasury-broaden-scope-secondary-sanctions-iran-source-says-2026-08-24/

“Treasury Launches Unprecedented Campaign Against Iranian Regime on Economic D-Day” — US Treasury Department press release, August 24, 2026 — https://home.treasury.gov/

“Operation Economic Outcast: Total Isolation of the Iranian Regime” — The White House, August 24, 2026 — https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/08/operation-economic-outcast-total-isolation-of-the-iranian-regime/

“United States Implements Operation Economic Outcast with Sanctions Targeting Iran’s Military Activities and Procurements, and Petroleum and Petrochemical Product Traders” — US Department of State, August 24, 2026 — https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/08/united-states-implements-operation-economic-outcast-with-sanctions-targeting-irans-military-activities-and-procurements-and-petroleum-and-petrochemical-product-traders-fact-sheet/

“Bessent unveils sweeping new Iran sanctions but delays toughest measures” — Washington Post, August 24, 2026 — https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/08/24/bessent-unveil-economic-d-day-sanctions-against-iran/

“Dozens of Chinese firms hit by US’ D-Day Iran sanctions, major financial institutions spared” — Business Times Singapore, August 25, 2026 — https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/global/dozens-chinese-firms-hit-us-d-day-iran-sanctions-major-financial-institutions-spared

“US to sanction financial institution over Iran dealings by week’s end, Bessent says” — Iran International, August 24, 2026 — https://www.iranintl.com/en/202608242861

“Bessent targets French, Swiss and British firms in sweeping Iran sanctions” — Brussels Signal, August 25, 2026 — https://brusselssignal.eu/2026/08/bessent-targets-french-swiss-and-british-firms-in-sweeping-iran-sanctions/

“Oil prices fall as Bessent outlines new steps to punish Iran” — Channel News Asia, August 25, 2026 — https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/oil-prices-iran-sanctions-us-stocks-market-6338596

“Economic Fury Targets Iran’s Largest Digital Asset Exchange for Terror Finance and Sanctions Evasion” — US Treasury Department press release SB0519, June 2, 2026 — https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0519

“US freezes $131M in Iran-linked crypto tied to central bank” — Crypto News, July 15, 2026 — https://crypto.news/us-freezes-131m-in-iran-linked-crypto-tied-to-central-bank/

“How Trump’s crypto venture and Iran’s top exchange tapped into the same industry networks” — Reuters, May 18, 2026 — https://www.reuters.com/investigations/how-trumps-crypto-venture-irans-top-exchange-tapped-into-same-industry-networks-2026-05-18/

“Conflict Coin: How the Trumps’ Billion-Dollar Crypto Stake Depends on Binance’s Iran Sanctions Violations” — Public Citizen, April 27, 2026 — https://www.citizen.org/article/trump-crypto-world-liberty-financial-binance-iran-sanctions/

“S.Res.243 — A resolution condemning the financial entanglements of World Liberty Financial, Inc. with President Donald J. Trump, the Trump family, and the Trump Administration” — US Senate, May 21, 2025 — https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-resolution/243/text

“Joint Letter to Secretary Bessent and Acting Attorney General Blanche on Binance-Trump Ties” — Senators Adam Schiff, Richard Blumenthal, Chris Van Hollen, and Elizabeth Warren, June 15, 2026 — https://business.cch.com/BFLD/Schiff-Joint-Treasury-DOJ-Letter-Binance-Trump-Ties-06152026061726.pdf

“U.S. Treasury Announces Largest Settlements in History with World’s Largest Virtual Currency Exchange Binance for Violations of U.S. Anti-Money Laundering and Sanctions Laws” — US Treasury Department press release JY1925, November 21, 2023 — https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1925

“Binance Fired Staff Who Flagged $1 Billion Moving to Sanctioned Iran Entities” — Wall Street Journal, February 23, 2026 — https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/binance-iran-sanctions-financing-staff-b1648133

“Binance, whose founder was pardoned, now holds 87% of Trump’s stablecoin USD1” — Tech Startups / Fortune, February 10, 2026 — https://techstartups.com/2026/02/10/binance-whose-founder-was-pardoned-now-holds-87-of-trumps-stablecoin-usd1/

“Data: The trading volume of the stablecoin USD1 associated with the Trump family on Binance has exceeded 50 billion dollars” — ChainCatcher / CryptoQuant, August 6, 2026 — https://www.chaincatcher.com/en/article/2281013

“The Trump family’s crypto empire is getting a bank. But not the kind you know” — Axios, August 18, 2026 — https://www.axios.com/2026/08/18/trump-world-libert-wltc-wlf-crypto-usda1

“US regulator approves bank charter for Trump-backed crypto company World Liberty” — Reuters, August 14, 2026 — https://www.reuters.com/world/us-regulator-approves-bank-charter-trump-backed-crypto-company-world-liberty-2026-08-14/

“Bessent vows to finish divestitures that ethics office says are late” — Reuters, August 13, 2025 — https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bessent-vows-finish-divestitures-that-ethics-office-says-are-late-2025-08-13/

“US escalates Iran pressure with sanctions on crypto, aviation, shipping, gold on ‘Economic D-Day’” — The Block, August 24, 2026 — https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-08-24-us-escalates-iran-pressure-sanctions-crypto-aviation-shipping-gold-economic-d-day-412648

“Bessent unveils sanctions designed to cripple Iran” — Axios, August 24, 2026 — https://www.axios.com/2026/08/24/bessent-dday-iran-secondary-sanctions

I spent 20 years as a headhunter. I was the woman on the phone who told you what your offer was actually worth, who called your VP after the interview to close the deal, who knew the salary band before your own recruiter did. Two years ago my ass got kicked to the curb, and I have spent every month since watching the industry I used to run finish dying from the outside. It is worse now than I thought it was on the day I walked out.

The Con

The American job market for a 22-year-old college graduate in 2026 is not a market. It is a set of empty rooms with the lights on and a receptionist who does not look up when you walk in.

Roughly 1 in 7 job postings on your daughter’s laptop right now is a ghost. There is no job. There is no hiring manager. There is a listing an employer put up to build a “talent pipeline,” or to fake growth for a board deck, or because a VP got promoted and nobody remembered to take down her old req. In the industry I used to work in — recruiting, talent acquisition, the whole racket — more than half of the postings are ghosts. In senior roles, 1 in 5. The door is decorative. The referral network is the whole building. Your kid is knocking on a wall someone painted to look like a door, and the recruiter on the other side of that wall is on LinkedIn posting a broken-heart emoji about her most recent round of layoffs.

You know the post. The “so heartbroken about this round of layoffs 💔” from a talent-acquisition VP whose team no longer exists. The “we’re hiring!” banner from a company that just cut 4,000 people. The staged photos of quarterly incentive trips for top performers. The AI-generated resilience quote from a woman who has not personally called a candidate in 11 months. It is the closing act of an industry that replaced hiring with performance.

I watched it happen from inside the phone. Sometime between the last recession and the pandemic, American companies decided quietly and in unison that hiring an American graduate was a cost center. They replaced the entry-level job with a contractor. They replaced the contractor with a visa. They replaced the visa with an AI résumé screener that filters out the humans I used to place by name. They replaced the local office with a private-equity roll-up that eats a small company, reposts the survivors’ jobs on LinkedIn to look like growth, and pockets the difference. I am not against the visa. I am against the con — the con that says there is nobody here to hire while the LinkedIn feed fills with recruiters posting about how much they love people.

The kid sending her 10th résumé into the void this week is not competing with a Chinese engineer. She is competing with a wall.

The Comparison

Now look at what China did with the same 20 years.

China is graduating close to 13 million college students this year, its 7th record class in a row. It is graduating more than twice as many science-and-engineering bachelor’s degrees as we are, and it is graduating them into an industry it also built on purpose. That is a country that decided a generation ago it wanted the engineers, and then built the schools to make them, and then built the factories to hire them.

BYD, one Chinese carmaker, employs more engineers than any American automaker has ever assembled under one roof. Over the last 3 years it hired more than 50,000 fresh college graduates, most into R&D, most with master’s or doctoral degrees. Xiaomi, the phone company, built an entire electric sedan in-house with 3,400 engineers hired for the project. More than 600 all-electric passenger models are on sale in China this year. In the United States, 70-something. The Chinese state now says its EV industry is 1 million professionals short of what it needs. The labor shortage in China’s EV industry is bigger than every EV worker in America put together.

I am not going to sit here and tell you China solved employment. It did not. Chinese youth unemployment is high, right around where the UK’s is, right around where the EU’s is. A 22-year-old accounting graduate in Shanghai will tell you the same thing a 22-year-old accounting graduate in Kansas City will tell you — she sent out 150 CVs last month and nobody called back.

But here is the honest comparison, the one I keep coming back to at 5 in the morning when I cannot sleep. China is not winning at placement. China is winning at capacity. It is building the industry that could plausibly hire the graduate one day. It is culling degree programs it decided were dead ends and adding ones it decided were the future. It is opening national graduate engineering colleges staffed with practicing engineers instead of tenured professors who have not touched a factory floor since 1994. When a Chinese kid asks the state where the work is, the state at least gestures at a building.

When an American kid asks, the state points at a hole in the ground where the building used to be.

Look at what this Republican regime did instead.

They repealed the tax credits that made an American-made electric car affordable, and they did it on a schedule that reads like a bomb timer. New-EV credit gone after September 30, 2025. Used-EV credit gone. Commercial credit gone. Charging-station credit ending next summer. Then they raised tariffs on Chinese EVs to 100% and on Chinese batteries past 80%. Kill the demand. Jack the imports. And then, as the domestic industry that was supposed to fill the gap started building itself, they canceled that too.

Between January 2025 and this spring, this country canceled $32 billion in announced EV and battery investment and more than 48,000 jobs. Ford’s joint venture with SK collapsed in December, taking 1,500 Kentucky jobs and 1,000 Georgia ones with it. GM announced 1,750 indefinite layoffs at Factory Zero in Detroit and the Ultium battery plant in Ohio 4 weeks after Congress ended the credit — and said so in writing. Lucid cut 12% of its workforce in February and another 18% in June. And in my state, in De Soto, Kansas, Panasonic’s new $4 billion battery plant is running 4 of 8 planned production lines and quietly converting part of the plant to make batteries for data centers instead of cars, because the EV demand this administration promised to strangle did not materialize. The plant is not closed. It is being repurposed for a different country’s future.

And on the same road they were dismantling the industry, this administration walked over to the one federal agency whose entire job was making sure the pipeline into that industry existed at all, and they burned it down. Executive Order 14242, March 20, 2025, ordered the Secretary of Education to dismantle the Department of Education. Half the workforce, gone. More than 1,300 people fired in a single afternoon. The fix for a school system in crisis, according to the men running this country, is to empty the office in charge of it.

There is no country on earth that treats its own children this way and remains a country in any serious sense of the word.

The Fix

Here is what we file.

A charge of national labor-market fraud against every American company that spent the last decade replacing hiring with performance. A charge of national child abandonment against every governor, every state legislator, and every congressional Republican who watched this administration cancel the industry, gut the department, tariff the parts, and kill the credit — and then had the nerve to look at a class of 22-year-olds and tell them the free market was working just fine.

I am done pretending recruiting is a market. It is theater staged on top of a labor market that stopped functioning for anyone under 30. I am done pretending the men and women who spent the last decade posting about authentic leadership on LinkedIn — while the reqs got pulled and the hires went overseas and the AI got fed the résumés a human used to read — were doing anything but running out the clock on their own careers. And I am done pretending a country that will not build the industry that could hire its own children has any standing to lecture the rest of the world about freedom.

Now the fence. Because a country cannot fix a labor market it refuses to plan.

Ring-Fenced Capitalism, education edition. Everything a child needs to become a working American goes inside the fence, next to healthcare, housing, food, childcare, safety, and a living wage. Universal, publicly funded pre-K starting at age 3, in every county, not a lottery. K-12 fully funded, and teacher pay set as a public floor high enough that a 24-year-old woman with an education degree can teach for 30 years without a second job. Vocational and technical training wired directly into the industries this country says it wants — batteries, EVs, grid, care work, construction, semiconductor fabrication — and treated with the seriousness a country used to treat its trades. Public higher education tuition-free at every state university and community college. The 4 years that turn a graduate into a professional belong on the same public floor as the 12 that came before them.

Rebuild the Department of Education and fund it like a national-security agency, because it is. Private tutors, private colleges, Harvard endowments, LinkedIn Learning subscriptions — outside the fence, where private industry belongs, competing on top of the public floor instead of replacing it.

And elect the progressives who already ran on this and won. There are more of them now than there were 2 years ago, and every one of them ran against exactly the men who dismantled the department and killed the plant and let the tariff do the rest.

If you are 22 and sending your 10th résumé into the void this week, hear me. The market did not fail you. The men and women running this country failed you, and then they built a LinkedIn feed to make you feel like it was your résumé’s fault.

It was not your résumé. It was them.

I used to be the woman on the other end of the phone. There is no phone now. There is no offer now. Not because the American graduate got worse. Because the country decided to stop calling.

We can pick it back up. But not with the men currently holding the receiver.

3 weeks ago I quit the flower shop. My back was giving out, and I told myself the writing was ready to hold the weight. My paid subscribers have dipped since I made the jump, which is a hard thing to watch when you have bet on your own work. I am telling you that because I would rather tell you than not tell you. If this essay is worth something to you, and if you can spare it, a paid subscription would help more than you know right now. If you cannot, keep reading anyway. That matters too.

$6 a month, $60 a year, $120 founding member.

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If you are here to harass me, to threaten me, to email me about my tone, to tell me that a woman with a Substack and a 20-year recruiting career does not understand the American economy: keep scrolling. I do not owe you a debate. I owe my readers the work.

And if you are tired — tired of being told this is the greatest country on earth while a Chinese teenager can buy a new electric car for the price of your used one, tired of watching a Republican administration cancel the industry that could have hired your daughter, tired of watching a fourth-grade classroom turned into a culture-war battlefield while a country halfway around the world teaches its first-graders what a neural network is, tired of watching LinkedIn recruiters post inspirational quotes over the corpse of the American entry-level job — welcome. You are in the right place. Pull up a chair. There is more coming.

200+ EVs under $25,000 in China, spring 2026 — Reuters; 2027 Chevy Bolt at $28,995, cheapest EV in America — Cars.com, August 2026; 2026 Nissan Leaf base pricing — Nissan USA; Recent-graduate unemployment 5.6%, underemployment 42% — New York Fed Labor Market for Recent College Graduates; 1-in-7 ghost jobs, 51% wholesale, 21% senior — Clarify Capital ghost-jobs study; Class of 2025 job search 6.4 months, fewer offers — NACE 2025 Student Survey; 12.7 million Chinese graduates 2026, 7th record class — Xinhua; China vs US science and engineering bachelor's degrees — NSF State of US Science and Engineering 2025; BYD 120,000+ engineers, 50,000+ fresh graduates 2023-2025 — People's Daily; Xiaomi 3,400-engineer EV team — Reuters; China EV industry 1M+ professional shortage — SCMP; Ford BlueOval SK dissolution, December 2025 — WardsAuto; GM 1,750 indefinite layoffs at Factory Zero and Ultium, October 29, 2025 — New York Times; Lucid 12% cut February, 18% cut June 2026 — CNBC; Panasonic De Soto plant converting lines to data-center batteries, June 2026 — Lawrence Times; $32 billion / 48,000 jobs in clean-energy manufacturing cancellations, Jan 2025 through Q1 2026 — EDF State of Clean Energy Manufacturing Q1 2026; EV credit end September 30, 2025 and tariff schedule — White House; Executive Order 14242, March 20, 2025, dismantle Department of Education — White House; More than 1,300 Department of Education layoffs — The Guardian.

Good Monday morning! Somewhere a Travel and Leisure writer is filing 1,200 words on the best boutique hotel in Positano and I am filing 3,000 words on why the Chief Justice of the United States decided at 6 p.m. Friday that a 250-person construction crew should keep working 20-hour days, 7 days a week, on a $400 million ballroom on the South Lawn of the White House. In some alternate universe I am writing about shoulder season on the Amalfi Coast. In this one I write about Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a provision no US president has ever used before Saturday. I’ve had it. The US started a trade war with Canada at 12:01 a.m. Saturday over Quebec dairy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent takes the podium at 2 p.m. today to announce what he keeps calling “the greatest coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world.” Gary, Indiana is on day 13 without power. National Guard troops in DC started carrying pistols and a small number of M4 rifles Sunday evening. Ukraine hit its 2nd major Russian oil refinery of the week overnight. And Natalie Harp — the executive assistant who worked at the White House for a year without a security clearance — spent Sunday afternoon a few feet behind Trump and Melania at an IndyCar race on the National Mall.

That is Monday. Here is where we are.

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The Ledger

Bessent Takes The Podium At 2 P.M. Today

At 2 p.m. Eastern this afternoon, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will announce what he has promised will be — his words — “the toughest sanctions in the history of the world” against Iran. He has been telling reporters for 10 days that the goal is to “collapse this regime” and produce “the greatest coordinated economic isolation in the history of the world.” Those are quotes. He has warned every other country on Earth that they are — his words — “either with us or against us.” Iran already has more than 6,000 US sanctions on it. The country’s foreign ministry called Bessent’s plan “economic terrorism” and “a crime against humanity” last week. China, which buys more than 80% of Iranian oil, has already publicly refused to cooperate. India has not answered. The 60-day nuclear agreement expired 7 days ago. 440.9 kilograms of enriched uranium are still missing. The last time a US Treasury Secretary called a press conference to announce that a foreign government would be collapsed by his department, it was the Bush administration and the year was 2003.

We Started A Trade War With Canada At Midnight Saturday

At 12:01 a.m. Saturday, 50% tariffs took effect on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods across more than 500 product categories. Canadian wine. Canadian hockey equipment. Canadian dairy. Canadian cement. Canadian furniture. Canadian wigs. Canadian Christmas decorations. Canadian fishing rods. The tariffs were originally set for August 19. Trump paused them 3 days on August 18 after claiming a deal was close. The talks collapsed just before midnight Friday over Canada’s supply management system for dairy — a system Trump himself did not touch in the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) he signed in his first term. The tariffs were imposed under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a provision no US president has ever invoked in the 96 years since it became law. Prime Minister Mark Carney announced retaliation Saturday afternoon — “dollar for dollar,” his words — starting September 8, targeting American steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Fox News on Sunday there are no new talks planned. Then, at 8 a.m. Sunday, Trump posted on Truth Social that Canada “wants the benefits of being a State, without being one.” He also complained about Canadian tariffs on American farmers. He did not name a tariff.

The Chief Justice Kept The Ballroom Going At Midnight Friday

At roughly 6 p.m. Friday — five hours before a federal appeals court injunction was set to halt construction — Chief Justice John Roberts single-handedly stayed the order and allowed the $400 million ballroom project to keep going. There was no argument. No briefing. No new deadline. Just an order from the Chief Justice, one page, sitting on the Supreme Court’s emergency docket. The Trump administration told the Court in its filing that a 250-person crew is working 20-hour days, 7 days a week, and that the project is “65% complete in its entirety.” The East Wing is already demolished. Trump signed his name into wet concrete on the new granite helipad on Wednesday. On Saturday morning he posted on Truth Social that the “Military/Ballroom Complex” is “under budget” and “ahead of schedule” and being “paid for with ZERO Dollars of Taxpayer Money” by “Great American Patriots and Companies.” He did not name the companies. The Kennedy Center closes for renovations today.

National Guard Troops In DC Started Carrying Firearms Sunday Evening

Per a Hegseth directive, the nearly 2,000 National Guard troops deployed to Washington DC began carrying M17 service pistols — and a small number of M4 rifles — starting Sunday evening. Five Republican governors have contributed the armed troops: Louisiana, Mississippi, Ohio, South Carolina, and West Virginia. The deployment costs roughly $600 per guard per day, or about $3 million a day, and is projected to cost $1.4 billion through 2029. Two academic studies have now found the deployment has had no effect on violent crime in DC. That last part is the part the memo does not mention. On Sunday, the Guardian reported that Steve Bannon has predicted Trump will declare a national emergency on election integrity in late August as a predicate to federalizing the 2026 midterms. Trump left the door open to that plan publicly on August 11. Wion Asia’s headline yesterday, verbatim: “Will Trump declare national emergency to nationalise midterm elections.”

Gary, Indiana Is On Day 13 Without Power

More than 10,000 customers in Gary and Portage, Indiana are still without electricity as of NIPSCO’s Sunday evening update — the 13th day since the August 11 storms. On Saturday the number was 33,124. Julene Anderson, 61, told WFYI she has been “finding enough ice” and waiting in gas lines to keep her household running. In a public post over the weekend she described waiting 1 hour and 45 minutes at a gas station only for the pump to run dry when she reached it, and driving home on fumes praying out loud. NIPSCO — the utility — is calling it the largest outage in the company’s history. Gary is 75% Black. It is 30 miles from Chicago. Trump has said publicly he wants to send the National Guard to Chicago. He has not mentioned Gary. NIPSCO’s estimated restoration for the last Gary and Portage neighborhoods is Tuesday, August 25. That will make it 14 days.

Ukraine Hit Its 2nd Major Russian Refinery Of The Week Overnight

Ukrainian drones struck the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery in Russia’s Samara region on Friday, the Perm refinery — Lukoil’s flagship, 1,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border — on Thursday, the Yeysk fuel terminal on the Sea of Azov on Saturday, and 2 Ozon logistics centers — Russia’s second-largest online retailer — in Chapayevsk and Orenburg on Sunday. Russia responded on Sunday by hitting a US-owned Mondelez food processing plant in Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast. Zelensky gave an interview Sunday saying Russia may mobilize 300,000 additional troops by the end of the year, that the negotiation window may extend to summer 2027, and that Ukraine has “almost completely” recaptured Dnipropetrovsk Oblast — only about 4 square miles and 3 small villages remain in Russian hands. He also predicted territorial parity by the end of 2026. The war is 4 years, 6 months, and 0 days old today.

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Also On The Ledger

• The 30-year Treasury bond closed at 5.276% Friday. That is the highest weekly close since Monday’s 5.311%, itself a nearly 20-year closing high. Treasury’s emergency bond buyback program doubles to $4 billion on September 9. The Guardian on Saturday called Bessent’s expansion “a sign of weakness, not strength.” National debt is $40 trillion.

• Markets closed Friday with WTI at $87.06 and Brent at $92.22. The Strait of Hormuz is still a dual blockade. Bessent’s press conference is at 2 p.m.

• Meta’s federal social-media-addiction trial entered its second week Monday in front of Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in the Northern District of California, sitting in Oakland. California, Colorado, Kentucky, and New Jersey are seeking up to $1.4 trillion in damages under the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA), though the states told the judge $200 billion is the more likely figure. The trial is expected to run 6 to 7 weeks. New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport is leading the case.

• Israel killed a 4-year-old boy in an airstrike in az-Zawayda on Sunday. His name was Muhammad Abdel Salam Taha. Total Gaza casualties since October 2023 are now 73,420 dead and 174,369 injured per the Gaza Health Ministry. 1,286 Palestinians have been killed since the October 2025 “ceasefire” agreement was announced.

• Seven people including 2 police officers died in a head-on crash in northeast England Saturday morning. A Volkswagen Passat driving on the wrong side of a divided road hit a marked Cleveland Police vehicle at 3:39 a.m. All 7 died at the scene. It is the 3rd wrong-way fatal crash in the UK and Ireland this week. Total dead across the 3 crashes: 12.

• CBP paused border wall construction inside Big Bend National Park last Monday. The pause applies only to the park. The broader Big Bend project — a $1.7 billion Kiewit subsidiary contract for 175 miles of 30-foot bollard wall west of the park, 17 miles of vehicle barriers inside the park, and 200 miles of patrol roads — is still going. Total border-wall spending from the Big Beautiful Bill is $46.5 billion.

• Natalie Harp was photographed a few feet behind Trump and Melania at the Freedom 250 IndyCar Grand Prix on the National Mall on Sunday. Trump waved the green flag at roughly 1 p.m. Melania sat next to him. Trump and Melania then drove a ceremonial lap in “The Beast” motorcade. Kyle Kirkwood won. TMZ’s Sunday headline on Harp was, verbatim, that she is “letting the allegations she’s obsessed with President Trump roll off her shoulders.”

• The 4 US troop deaths removed from the Iran War Casualty Database three days ago still have not been explained by the White House, the Pentagon, or the DoD spokesperson. The number on the official database as of this morning is 753. The Truth Social post said 757. 4 names are gone. No reporter has asked the President.

Pull Quote

“We’ve recognized from the start that America has changed. We recognize that sometimes, its signature is written in pencil. You’re at war when you’re attacked, and we got attacked.”
— Prime Minister Mark Carney, Ottawa, August 22, 2026

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What Are We Going To Do About It

1. Bessent’s Iran press conference is at 2 p.m. Eastern today. Watch it live if you can. Read the transcript if you cannot. This is the biggest Treasury announcement of the second term and it is being framed by the White House as a diplomatic success. The bond market and the oil market will tell us within 90 minutes whether the world believes it.

2. Call your senator today about the trade war with Canada. Capitol switchboard: (202) 224-3121. Ask specifically about Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. Ask when it was last used. The answer is never. Ask why a supply management system on dairy — one Trump himself did not touch in the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement he signed in 2020 — is the reason 500 product categories are now 50% more expensive at Costco.

3. Call FEMA about Gary. FEMA’s main line is (800) 621-3362. Ask whether Gary, Indiana, has received a federal disaster declaration for the August 11 storms and, if not, why not. More than 10,000 people are still without power on day 13.

4. File your public comment on the Roadless Rule rescission at Regulations.gov before the September 21 deadline. The 45 million acres of Tongass National Forest and other roadless areas do not have lobbyists.

5. Restack whichever of these matters most to the person you are sending it to. 10,000 Americans have been without power for 13 days. Treasury is announcing the collapse of a foreign regime at 2 p.m. The Chief Justice of the United States hand-waved an injunction at 6 p.m. Friday so a 250-person crew could keep working 20-hour days on a $400 million ballroom. All 3 of those things are happening at the same time.

The Ask

Degreed journalist. 50 states, 65 countries. Writing from rural Kansas.

Every paid subscription is 1 more Monday morning I spend reading the Federal Register instead of taking the Treasury press release at face value. The Chief Justice cleared a construction crew to work 20-hour days at midnight Friday. The White House started a trade war at midnight Saturday. Treasury is announcing the collapse of a foreign regime at 2 p.m. Monday. If you want the next Receipt to land before the news does, the money means the most right now.

$6 a month. $60 a year. $120 for a founding subscription.

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If the money is not there this month, restack it. Restacks are worth more to this newsletter than most people realize, and they cost you nothing.

You can also leave me a tip at: buymeacoffee.com/monicaandreasen

— Monica

PS — don’t forget to complete one of these today:

1. Watch the Bessent press conference at 2 p.m. Eastern.

2. Call your senator about Section 338 and the Canada tariffs. (202) 224-3121.

3. Call FEMA about Gary, Indiana. (800) 621-3362.

4. File a comment on the Roadless Rule rescission at Regulations.gov. It takes 4 minutes.

5. Restack whichever headline lands hardest for the person you send it to.

Thank you!

Sources

Axios, Trump imposes 50% tariffs on Canada under Section 338 — August 22, 2026

White & Case, Trump administration imposes 50% tariffs on certain Canadian products in first use of Section 338 — August 22, 2026

The Guardian, Canada tariffs Trump trade deal talks fail — August 22, 2026

Reuters, US imposes new 50% tariffs on Canadian products — August 22, 2026

CNBC, US-Canada trade talks collapse ushering in wave of new tariffs — August 22, 2026

Al Jazeera, Canada US and tit-for-tat tariffs: how will it impact their economies — August 23, 2026

Fox News, Trump trade chief warns Canada walked away from best deal to trigger 50% US tariffs — August 24, 2026

The New York Times, Carney slams U.S.-Canada trade proposal and vows retaliation — August 22, 2026

Prime Minister of Canada, Remarks on Canada-U.S. trade negotiations — August 22, 2026

CNBC, Treasury Secretary Bessent Iran sanctions press conference — August 23, 2026

Reuters, US, Iran keep up hostile rhetoric ahead of new sanctions — August 22, 2026

Al Jazeera, US Treasury Secretary says new economic measures will collapse Iran — August 20, 2026

CNN, Supreme Court rules on Trump ballroom — August 21, 2026

AP News, Chief Justice Roberts lets work on Trump White House ballroom continue — August 21, 2026

The Hill, White House ballroom construction under budget, ahead of schedule — August 22, 2026

NBC News, National Guard troops in DC begin carrying firearms — August 24, 2026

The Independent, National Guard armed with guns in Washington — August 24, 2026

The Guardian, Trump laying groundwork to impose national emergency by sowing election distrust — August 23, 2026

Wion, Will Trump declare national emergency to nationalise midterm elections — August 23, 2026

WFYI, Parts of Gary are still without power, residents blame NIPSCO — August 22, 2026

The Guardian, Indiana residents 11th day without power — August 22, 2026

NIPSCO, Power outages update — August 23, 2026

Kyiv Independent, Drone attack reported on oil refinery in Russia’s Perm — August 21, 2026

Reuters, Ukrainian drones hit warehouse of Russian online retailer Ozon in overnight strikes — August 22, 2026

Kyiv Post, Ukrainian drones strike Russian oil infrastructure — August 22, 2026

LA Times, Zelensky details rift with ousted defense chief Fedorov — August 23, 2026

Wall Street Journal, Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq — August 21, 2026

Wall Street Journal, Crude oil electronic futures — August 22, 2026

The Guardian, Bessent’s attempt to calm bond markets is a sign of weakness not strength — August 23, 2026

NPR, Meta trial kids social media addiction — August 17, 2026

Al Jazeera, Israeli air strike near Gaza refugee camp kills one person and injures two — August 23, 2026

ABC News, 7 people including 2 police officers die following head-on collision in northeast England — August 22, 2026

Houston Public Media, Confused about Big Bend area border plans — August 19, 2026

CNN, Border security Big Bend National Park — August 19, 2026

TMZ, Melania Trump, Natalie Harp at Freedom 250 — August 23, 2026

Wikipedia, Freedom 250 Grand Prix — August 23, 2026

A free excerpt from Flirting With The Judge, adapted from Chapter 15. If it sounds like an argument I have been building for 14 chapters, that is because I have.

The Kind Of People We Need To Elect

Not the polished ones.

The people we need will not test well in the focus groups the consultants run in the hotel conference rooms the donors pay for. They will not have consultant-tested lines. They will not know which fork is which at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, because they will not be going to the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. They will not have made their careers on tv, and they will not owe their next election to the people who make careers on tv. They will look like the country actually looks — not the country the ads sell.

We keep electing the ads.

We elect the person who says the sentence the pollster tested at the dinner the lobbyist paid for. We elect the person who has never actually been the person in the story they are telling. We elect the person the donor picked out and then feel surprised, 2 years later, when it turns out the donor is who they work for. Then we do it again. And then we call the exhaustion of doing it again “polarization,” when what it actually is a country that keeps being asked to marry a candidate it was only ever supposed to flirt with.

We are choosing wrong on purpose. And we are running out of time to keep pretending we do not know that.

Here is what right looks like.

The people we need will have held a job that paid hourly, at some point in their life. Not walked past one on the way to a photo op. Not written a memoir chapter about the summer they spent behind a counter. Held it. Punched a clock. Been written up for being 5 minutes late by a manager who was written up for being 5 minutes late. Made a schedule work around a sick kid and a bus that only comes every 40 minutes. Known what the last week of the month feels like in a household that does not have a cushion. Known, in their body, what it means when the boss says the words “we’re going to need you to stay.” Because you cannot legislate for a life you have never actually lived. You can only legislate for a story you were told about it.

They will have lost something they could not replace with money. A parent. A child. A marriage. A house. A leg. A friend. The country they thought they lived in. They will have sat in the aftermath of that loss long enough to understand that the country they thought they lived in was, in significant part, a story sold to them by people who benefitted from their belief in it. And they will have come out the other side of that grief with something harder and quieter than optimism — a working understanding of what is at stake when the wrong person casts the wrong vote in a room full of people who will never meet the family the vote lands on.

They will have been on the wrong side of a bill they could not pay. Not once, so they can put it in a stump speech. Long enough that the memory has weight. They will have been in an emergency room without insurance, or watched somebody they love be in one, or sat in the pharmacy line at 8 p.m. on a Sunday and watched the number on the screen and known before it turned red that they were not walking out of there with the medication. They will know the sound the hospital hallway makes at 3 a.m. — the sound of a country that decided its sick citizens should audition for care. The room in Washington where the vote gets cast is very far from that hallway. You want the person casting the vote to have been in the hallway.

They will have said no to a donor and stayed in the race anyway. They will have voted their conscience against their own party at least once and taken the primary challenge that came with it — publicly, on the record, with their name attached and their kids’ school still in the district. They will not have been rescued from the consequences of their conscience by a super PAC. If they have been rescued by a super PAC, they were not voting their conscience. They were voting the check.

They will have sat on a porch in a Kansas town, a West Virginia holler, a Rio Grande border stretch, a Detroit block, a reservation, a Bronx corner, a Nebraska farm. Actually sat. Eaten the food. Drunk the coffee. Listened to what people say when the microphone is off and the notepad is closed and the press pool has driven back to the airport. Not toured any of it in a bus with a camera crew. Not filed a listening tour report to the strategist, sat. Long enough for the person they were sitting with to say the second sentence — the one nobody says until the first one goes unpunished. Governing is downstream of listening. And listening is downstream of being somewhere long enough that the room stops performing for you.

They will name their donors. All of them. Loud. On the record. On the website. On the yard sign if it fits. If a check comes in from a name they do not recognize, they will ask who is behind it, and if the answer is a hedge fund, an insurer, a private equity portfolio company, a pharmacy benefit manager, a Christian nationalist think tank, a Peter Thiel LLC, a Reid Hoffman LLC, a crypto exchange, or anyone else who has spent the last decade making money by knocking the fence down, they will send it back. They will refuse the PAC.

They will read the bill before they vote on the bill. Not the summary the leadership sent. Not the whip note. The bill. And if the bill is 1,200 pages and got dropped on their desk 4 hours before the vote, they will vote no on principle and say publicly that they voted no because no human being can honestly vote on a bill they were not given time to read, and if we keep pretending otherwise the country will be governed by the staffer who wrote the summary and not the representative who was elected to read the bill.

They will fight their own party when their own party is wrong, and they will do it out loud, and they will accept the consequences. They will not wait for a safe seat. They will not wait for a cycle when the fight is convenient. They will not save the courage for the retirement speech. The fight will happen when the fight matters, which is almost never when the fight is convenient. If the primary challenger comes, they will meet the primary challenger. If the donor pulls the check, they will let the donor pull the check. If the caucus punishes them, they will let the caucus punish them, and they will keep casting the vote they were sent to Washington to cast.

They will lose gracefully when they lose and legislate ferociously when they win.

They will not perform. They will govern. They will remember, in the exhausting, glamourless middle of a Wednesday afternoon on the third floor of a state capitol, when the C-SPAN camera has moved on and the reporters have gone to lunch and the vote is on something that will never make the evening news, that the people they represent are not the people who paid for the ads.

That is where the job actually is. Not on the debate stage. Not in the viral clip. Not in the primetime interview. On the third floor, on a Wednesday, on a vote that nobody is watching, cast by a person who remembers who sent them.

They will build fences.

Every candidate you vote for from here forward — every school board seat, every state house race, every county commission, every congressional primary, every governor, every senator, every president — should be measured against that list. If a candidate cannot pass it, they are not running for you. They are running for the donors. The donors will get exactly what they paid for. You will get what is left.

The Ask

You are the judge. You always were.

Stop flirting. Vote. Organize. Show up. Give money you cannot quite spare to a candidate who does not have a name yet. Run yourself. Talk to your neighbor. Talk to the one who voted the other way — especially that one, especially now.

Build the fence in your county before you demand the fence in Washington. Show up to the school board meeting where the book is being pulled. Show up to the hospital board meeting when the closure is on the agenda. Show up to the county commission the night the zoning vote is on the docket. Show up to the ballot initiative for Medicaid expansion in the state that has spent a decade refusing to build the floor — I live in one of them, and I will lose my own coverage next month because Kansas never expanded, and I am telling you from inside that particular room that showing up is not optional.

Show up.

Because the fence is not going to build itself.

And the country that never built it is the country that lost Will, and 49,000 others last year, and the one that will lose the next 49,000 next year — and the year after that, and the year after that — unless somebody stops flirting with the judge and finally stands in front of her.

That somebody is you.

I am not asking you to be a hero. I am asking you to be a citizen. There is a difference between those two words, and the difference is the whole country.

Stand In Your Own

The day I decided to finally write this book, I delivered flowers to a 95-year-old woman for her birthday. She invited me in. I set the arrangement down on the entry table and we talked for the better part of an hour. She was alert, elegant, wholly herself in a way that made age seem almost beside the point.

I asked her what her secret was.

She looked at me — steady, no performance in it — and said, “Courage. The courage to stand in your own.”

It stopped me.

Not because it was grand. Not because it was quotable. Because it was so exact. She was not describing reinvention. She was not describing self-help. She was describing arrival — the long, difficult, unglamorous work of remaining yourself, without apology, even when the world rewards something easier to perform.

That is what flirting threatens most. Not just comfort. Not just resources. Selfhood. The courage to stand in your own life, to trust your own judgment, to keep your footing when the pressure makes it tempting to disappear into whatever version of yourself is most useful to whoever is watching.

The courage to stand in your own is not a luxury.

It is the whole point.

It is the fence around the person, the same way ring-fenced capitalism is the fence around the country. Inside the fence — your body, your mind, your time, your children, your vote, your conscience — is not for sale. Outside the fence, do whatever you want with the extra hours.

There are many things worth being flexible about. Plans. Opinions. Strategies. Timelines. Even the shape of a dream can change and should. Values do not. Figure out your values and make them the only thing you are not flexible on. Know what you stand for before the world starts offering you rewards to forget. Know who you protect before power asks you to look away. Know what kind of person you want to be before comfort tries to make you smaller, quieter, easier to manage.

If you have to stand alone, stand alone. That is not failure. Sometimes standing alone is the first honest thing anyone in the room has done.

Stand in your own. Then vote like you mean it. Then run for something. Then legislate. Then govern. Then build.

Adapted from Chapter 15 of Flirting With The Judge, already dropped in full to paid subscribers tonight at 6pm central, and in paperback before the elections.

The final chapter. The title chapter. The close, the call to action, what we need right now before these elections. Paid subscribers only, with one exception — the Acknowledgments at the end are for everyone, and I will be posting them free.

The Word

There is a word I have been circling for the entire length of this book, and I have not, until now, made you look at it head-on.

Flirting.

Most Americans hear it and picture a bar in 2009, a text sent at midnight, a hand resting a little too long on somebody’s arm at a wedding. That is not the definition I am working from. Open any dictionary — not the romantic entry, the older one, the one that will not flatter you — and you will find this:

To flirt: to behave as if attracted to, or trying to attract, someone, but for amusement rather than with serious intentions. To dally. To trifle. To entertain something without committing to it.

Read that again with your own life in mind.

We flirt with the truth but we do not marry it. We flirt with the doctor’s warning but we do not change the diet. We flirt with the church we outgrew at 19, the party that stopped speaking for us in 1985, the marriage that ended in our chest years before it ended on paper, the job that is eating our sleep 5 nights a week — and we stay. We flirt with our own values the way people flirt at a conference — enthusiastic, plausibly deniable, with the exit visible from every angle.

Every 4 years, we flirt with the country we could be, and we settle, on a Tuesday in November, for the country we already are.

That is the book. That is the title. That is what has to end.

The Judge

The judge is not out there.

I know we have been told, our entire lives, that the judge is out there — at the pulpit, on the cable channel, in the yard next door with the wrong sign, on the algorithm we asked to keep serving us outrage and did not think to stop asking. The judge is the pollster, the strategist, the base, the donor, the boss, the mother-in-law, the ex, the ghost of whoever we thought we would be by now.

The judge is you.

You are the judge in your own life. You are the one who decides whether the vote made sense, whether the words you said were true, whether the pill you took was worth what you paid for it, whether the version of the story you told at Thanksgiving was the truth or the version that kept the peace at the cost of your own.

You are the one whose verdict finally matters, because you are the one who has to live inside the sentence.

And we spend our lives flirting with that judge instead of standing in front of her.

We flatter her. We text her at midnight and disappear at dawn. We tell her what she wants to hear and we tell ourselves we will get serious with her later — when the mortgage is smaller, when the kids are older, when the election is over, when the moment is right, when we have earned the right to actually mean it.

The moment is never right. That is the point. That is the whole design.

A country of people flirting with their own consciences is a country that will never show up to marry them.

What Flirting Costs

I know the exact shape of that flirtation because I lived inside it for 2 decades.

I built a career in recruiting, an industry that describes itself in elevated language even though the structure is brutally simple. You are paid for one outcome. The yes. Not for insight. Not for effort. Not, in any long-term sense that matters to a human being, for the quality of what happens after the deal closes. The offer is extended, the candidate accepts, the transaction is complete, and everything else — fit, durability, retention, regret — exists somewhere outside the immediate measure of success.

I was very good at it.

Which is another way of saying I was very good at flirting with my own values.

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