(Myth’s Note: This piece was originally posted on r/collapse, here’s the hyperlink.)

This is The Inheritance, my modernized take on a “boomer humour” cartoon by Bob Eckstein (with some stock imagery) about the ‘material’ legacies that we leave behind.

With the northern hemisphere inundated in wildfires and smoke over the summer of 2026 (a particularly bad season in my part of the world), I can’t help but think about the condition of the world that we’ve received – and will ultimately “gift” to whomever comes next.

Remember: we don’t inherit the Earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.

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This video clip is drawn from one of my favourite YouTube series – Costco Fahrenheit by ToadBurger (check it out here!) Beyond the clear allusion to Roy Batty’s monologue in Blade Runner, it’s a compelling speech – one that you can likely also relate to as well. I hope you enjoy it as much as I did. For those seeking a text transcript, I’ve written it out below.

“We set fire to the land and the sea, and the sky. And for what - some asshole’s stock portfolio grows a little bit bigger? And I lose another day of my life to make it happen. I’ve got nobody. I can’t run. There’s nowhere left to go. There’s nothing in my future but a worse version of now.”

- Ernst, disillusioned Costco employee

It’s an intoxicating feeling, isn’t it?

When it comes to the gradual validation of our fears of collapse, as the future unravels in (un)expected ways, I find that some doomers luxuriate in the smug satisfaction of “being right” (myself included). Others yet find solace in schadenfreude, indulging in the pain of others who have been unable to accept that their perspectives of the world as they once knew it – or could have been – are no longer tenable, especially if they played some part in allowing disaster to unfold. While this may be empowering from the standpoint of personal agency, I find it to be deeply corrosive – and absolutely how not talk about collapse.

Over the holiday season, I’ve repeatedly returned to a wonderful little article published in Counter Punch regarding the r/collapse community (Four Billion Dead at 2C?). In said piece, there’s a particular paragraph that keeps rattling around in my mind, one that inspired me to write out my thoughts today. I’d like to quote the relevant bit below.

Collapsitarians are ahead of the curve in feeling deeply the pain of ecological crisis and seeing with not entirely clear eyes, but with eyes wide enough, the existential nature of the crisis. If the most extreme among them sound like mad prophets, then we who deny the seriousness of the crisis, who think everything’s going to be alright by our embrace of an unfounded optimism, are the deceivers.

The recognition that we are suffering in our understanding is critical; we should not look to find joy in the suffering of others, no matter how much we think they deserve it. The role of a collapsnik, in my mind, is to help others navigate the truth of our perilous future together, bringing along with them the twin lessons of both grief and gratitude: one for what we will lose along the way, and the other for what we can still treasure and cherish. Both are required to move forward.

And so, I’d like to conclude my comments with an excerpt from Carolyn Baker’s Love in the Age of Ecological Apocalypse – a little reminder we are ultimately psychological psychopomps, helping the lost come to terms with the dying (and rebirth) of their worlds.

They are vulnerable, wounded human beings as we all are who, for whatever reason, are profoundly threatened by the topic of collapse and it could mean for their well-being and for the well-being of relationships held most dear. Everyone is clueless about collapse at some point. Everyone’s journey is unique and should be respected, even if we don’t happen to agree with it. […]

I believe that the collapse conflict runs deeper in the human psyche than many others. Why?

Because to understand and prepare for collapse is to grasp the magnitude of the changes our future holds and to literally stare death in the face. First, if we understand the severity of the collapse of industrial civilization, we implicitly understand we may not survive physically. In sharing our knowledge of collapse with other persons […] we are literally asking them to come along with us on a journey that may end our lives and theirs. Furthermore, if we sense, as I do, that all of humanity knows in its collective psyche that we are well into collapse, then by naming it as such we agree to stand up in a sea of humans in denial and beg them to also name what they already know and are determined to ignore or minimize. […] No one should be judged because we cannot go there, nor should anyone be declared a saint because she can.

If you enjoyed today’s piece, and if you also share my insatiable curiosity for the various interdisciplinary aspects of “collapse”, please consider taking a look at some of my other written and graphic works at my Substack Page – Myth of Progress. That said, as a proud member of this community, I will always endeavour to publish my work to r/collapse first.

My work is free, and will always be free; when it comes to educating others on the challenges of the human predicament, no amount of compensation will suffice … and if you’ve made it this far, then you have my sincere thanks.

Hey everyone – it’s been a while, hasn’t it? Thought that I’d exercise a little bit of creative muscle for once, and come up with something that really speaks to how I feel sometimes.

That said, today’s little art piece is sourced from two comic strips prepared by the wonderful and talented rawdawgcomics – check out their work for more

For this special day, I thought I’d put a little extra love into this low effort piece by – very briefly – covering some of the best “love” stories I’ve seen over the past few months:

For Chocolate Lovers: Climate Central has recently released a new report, Climate Change is Heating Up West Africa’s Cocoa Belt (original report here) detailing the observed impact of excessive heat, unpredictable precipitation, and insect-borne infestations on cacao tree harvests (quantity and quality) across four West African countries (not to mention the prices!).

For Those Who Use Protection: A few months ago, Mamavation and Environmental Health News jointly teamed up to determine that PFAS was, in fact, a serious contaminant in a surprisingly high number of reproductive health products - specifically condoms to lubricants. As someone who has followed this story for some time now, here’s a good update. As of late last year, one particular brand of some repute (Trojan) was listed in an ongoing class action lawsuit over said issue over in SDNY: Goodman vs. Church & Dwight Co., Inc,. It’s a fun read, I swear.

... And For Those Looking For Some Pillow Talk: And now, as we’re certainly venturing off into the realm of hot tea, please take what I’m about to say with a massive grain of salt. If one renowned courtesan and author who services the world’s elite at the World Economic Forum is to be believed, then the billionaires know we’re fucked – and they want to enjoy things while they last.

As Ms. Balthus states it best, the super wealthy clearly recognize that “the elephant in the room is climate change. Everyone knows it can't be prevented any more.” Half despair at our fate, while the other (“dumber”) half labours under delusions that they’ll somehow be safe.

Note: Salome did not provide any comment when solicited to confirm such lurid yet scandalous rumours!

And always remember, doomers, to love - no matter what happens.

—

If you enjoyed today’s piece, and if you also share my insatiable curiosity for the various interdisciplinary aspects of “collapse”, please consider taking a look at some of my other written and graphic works at my Substack Page – Myth of Progress. That said, as a proud member of this community, I will always endeavour to publish my work to r/collapse first.

My work is free, and will always be free; when it comes to educating others on the challenges of the human predicament, no amount of compensation will suffice … and if you’ve made it this far, then you have my sincere thanks.

It’s time for another low effort Casual Friday post!

Today’s meme is brought to you by:

• The Guardian – At COP29, we must treat the climate crisis with the same urgency as COVID – history shows it can be done, Mukhtar Babayev

• The Lancet – COVID-19 response: a massive global failure (infographic); and

• the Gunshow webcomic by K.C. Green

In previous years, I’ve made a number of satirical images ribbing on the seeming ineffectiveness of each annual COP. However, I thought that I would try something a little different this time around, thanks to this recent and inadvertently comedic clickbait article title from the Guardian.

Now, some of you may be wondering: who exactly is this guy? Well, in sum, Mr. Babayev:

• worked for the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) from 1994 to 2010 under a variety of roles (marketing, economic operations, and ecology);

• has served as Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecological and Natural Resources since 2018;

• has led his country’s delegation to five previous COPs; and

• is the president of the ongoing COP29 UN climate change conference, which just kicked off this Monday.

Let’s dive into his recent opinion piece, and see what he actually has to say.

Beyond some interesting points regarding how each COP participant effectively possesses veto power over what is a consensus-based process, or the risks of investment associated with financing the developing world’s transition to a cleaner energy world (who doesn’t love market-based solutions?), I wanted to home in on what I thought was his most outlandish statement. To quote:

At COP29, we must treat the climate crisis with the same urgency as COVID – history shows it can be done, Mukhtar Babayev

To prevent the gravest human, ecological and economic toll, it is crucial to cut emissions before it’s too late. Without investing in adaptation measures that fortify nations against the impacts of climate-driven events such as hurricanes and droughts, widespread damage becomes inevitable. The greater the damage, the more it will cost countries to rebuild. Prevention is preferable to cure, but our planet is already ailing. Immediate action is crucial to halt further decline.

Not only is such funding necessary, it is possible. This has been done before: when struck with another crisis, Covid-19, advanced economies marshalled $8tn over the course of just 48 months to support their citizens and businesses. The challenge of the day was met. We must treat climate change with the same urgency.

As best illustrated by the second infographic portion of today’s meme, The Lancet quickly summarizes how humanity’s response to the global threat of SARS-COV-2 was, at very best, absolutely dismal. Published in September 2022, the Lancet Commission describes a very different reality from that articulated by Babayev above in their full published report: The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Lancet Commission does not mince words in their “comprehensive investigation, analysis, and response to COVID-19”, and perhaps it is best to let them speak for themselves on the matter. And so, to quote both their executive summary and a few of their key findings:

The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic, Sachs et. al

Executive Summary:

As of May 31, 2022, there were 6·9 million reported deaths and 17·2 million estimated deaths from COVID-19, as reported by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME; throughout the report, we rely on IHME estimates of infections and deaths; note that the IHME gives an estimated range, and we refer to the mean estimate).

This staggering death toll is both a profound tragedy and a massive global failure at multiple levels. Too many governments have failed to adhere to basic norms of institutional rationality and transparency, too many people—often influenced by misinformation—have disrespected and protested against basic public health precautions, and the world's major powers have failed to collaborate to control the pandemic.

The multiple failures of international cooperation include:

(1) the lack of timely notification of the initial outbreak of COVID-19;

(2) costly delays in acknowledging the crucial airborne exposure pathway of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, and in implementing appropriate measures at national and global levels to slow the spread of the virus;

(3) the lack of coordination among countries regarding suppression strategies;

(4) the failure of governments to examine evidence and adopt best practices for controlling the pandemic and managing economic and social spillovers from other countries;

(5) the shortfall of global funding for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), as classified by the World Bank;

(6) the failure to ensure adequate global supplies and equitable distribution of key commodities—including protective gear, diagnostics, medicines, medical devices, and vaccines—especially for LMICs;

(7) the lack of timely, accurate, and systematic data on infections, deaths, viral variants, health system responses, and indirect health consequences;

(8) the poor enforcement of appropriate levels of biosafety regulations in the lead-up to the pandemic, raising the possibility of a laboratory-related outbreak;

(9) the failure to combat systematic disinformation; and

(10) the lack of global and national safety nets to protect populations experiencing vulnerability.

[…]

Key Findings:

[…]

• [The World Health Organization (WHO)] acted too cautiously and too slowly on several important matters: to warn about the human transmissibility of the virus, to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, to support international travel protocols designed to slow the spread of the virus, to endorse the public use of face masks as protective gear, and to recognize the airborne transmission of the virus.

• As the outbreak became known globally in early January, 2020, most governments around the world were too slow to acknowledge its importance and act with urgency in response. It was mainly the countries in WHO's Western Pacific region, primed by their experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome, that reacted with urgency to the outbreak, and that generally pursued a suppression strategy that led to low cumulative mortality, although the omicron variant (B.1.1.529) has been undoing some of these gains.

• Coordination among governments was inadequate on policies to contain the pandemic, including travel protocols to slow the global transmission of the virus, testing strategies, public health and social measures, commodity supply chains, data standards and reporting systems, and advice to the public, despite the very high interdependence among countries.

• Epidemic control was seriously hindered by substantial public opposition to routine public health and social measures, such as the wearing of properly fitting face masks and getting vaccinated. This opposition reflects a lack of social trust, low confidence in government advice, inconsistency of government advice, low health literacy, lack of sufficient behavioural-change interventions, and extensive misinformation and disinformation campaigns on social media. Public policies have also failed to draw upon the behavioural and social sciences; doing so would have led to more successful implementation of public health interventions and helped to increase social trust, prosociality, equity, and wellbeing. In many cases, policies and decision making have not been informed by robust and continuously updated evidence syntheses.

• Public policies did not properly address the profoundly unequal effects of the pandemic. Heavily burdened groups include essential workers, who are already disproportionately concentrated in more vulnerable minority and low-income communities; children; women, who face employment, safety, and income losses, exacerbated by the adverse consequences of school closures; people living in congregate settings, such as prisons or care homes, especially for older populations; people living with chronic conditions and disability; Indigenous Peoples; migrants, refugees, and displaced populations; people without access to quality and affordable health care; and people who face the burdens of long COVID.

• Among high-income countries, those with strong and resilient national health systems—including public health systems that complement clinical health care—have generally fared better at addressing COVID-19 and maintaining non-pandemic-related health services. In low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), where health systems tend to be under-resourced and fragmented, better outcomes were seen when previous experiences with outbreaks and epidemics were built upon, and when community-based resources—notably community health workers—were used to support screening and contact-tracing capacity and trust-building within communities.

• Rapid development of multiple vaccines has been a triumph of the research and development system and the result of long-standing public and private investment and cooperation. However, the lack of a multilateral and coordinated approach by governments to manage intellectual property rights, technology transfer, international financing, the allocation of vaccines from multinational pharmaceutical companies, and the support for vaccine production in LMICs for use in those countries, has come at a great cost in terms of inequitable access to vaccines.

• Economic recovery depends on sustaining high rates of vaccination coverage and low rates of new, clinically significant COVID-19 infections, and on fiscal and monetary policies to mitigate the socioeconomic effects of the pandemic and prevent a financial crisis. Emergency global financing from the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and regional development banks had a salutary role, although much larger financial flows from high-income to low-income regions were warranted.

• The sustainable development process has been set back by several years, with a deep underfinancing of investments needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the aims of the Paris Climate Agreement. In most countries, the pandemic diverted resources and policy attention away from longer-term goals, thereby reversing progress towards the SDGs in many countries.

I will not summarize the above text, as the Commission very clearly articulates all of the pitfalls and perils associated with the inaction, inequality, idiocy, and intermittent insanity of our collective responses. Even if we solely view this through the lens of Babayev’s fiduciary argument, that we should take inspiration from the international marshalling of financial resources over a two year period, it still falls short in a couple of ways: low-income & middle-income countries not only suffered from greatly insufficient support from the world’s wealthy (along with already fractured healthcare systems), but for many developing nations, the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals were essentially left on the backburner as much needed resources were re-directed towards addressing the pandemic.

Even the lone potential triumph of the COVID-19 pandemic – the rapid development of multiple vaccines – was hindered by “nationalism, racism, profiteering, and an overreaching intellectual property system [that] prevented lower-income countries from accessing or producing vaccines.” Coincidentally, it really isn’t too difficult to draw parallels to our approach to climate change here.  

Somewhat optimistically, the Commission discusses the many lessons that we are left to parse through in the wake of this endemic pestilence, some of which we could easily apply to any number of upcoming or ongoing crises.

In fact, the COVID-19 pandemic was a sort of dress rehearsal for the 21st century in some respects, preparing us for the various and interrelated complex terrors yet to come to fruition as we rapidly descend into our escalating predicament.

So, in a way, yes - I agree with Babayev, I do believe that we will respond to the climate challenge in similar fashion (and with the same urgency) to how we addressed COVID-19.

It will be a lingering reminder that hindsight is 2020 after all.

—

If you enjoyed today’s piece, and if you also share my insatiable curiosity for the various interdisciplinary aspects of “collapse”, please consider taking a look at some of my other written and graphic works at my Substack Page – Myth of Progress. That said, as a proud member of this community, I will always endeavour to publish my work to r/collapse first.

My work is free, and will always be free; when it comes to educating others on the challenges of the human predicament, no amount of compensation will suffice … and if you’ve made it this far, then you have my sincere thanks.

And so, without further ado, let’s begin!

To say that Hurricane Helene was remarkable in many respects is simply an incredible understatement. At a glance, here’s a sampling of a few facts:

• Helene is a prime example of rapid intensification, expanding from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in only two days before landfall – a consequence of an intensifying and more energetic hydrological cycle, complete with “heavier rains, extreme floods, and more intense storms driven by latent heat” found in both our warming atmosphere and oceans.

• As related to today’s image, the storm surges of Hurricane Helene broke multiple records for at least six communities along Florida’s gulf coast, from Elena (1985), the Storm of the Century (1993), and even Idalia (last year) – up to 9.3 feet in Cedar Key, if you can believe it.

• Despite declining to a Category 2 inland, USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey noted that the “fast forward speed [of Hurricane Helene] managed to push that narrow band of wind damage quite far inland […] into south central Georgia, and later, as far north as the southern Appalachians, where we saw some hurricane-force gusts into northwestern South Carolina and even western North Carolina before the storm began to play out and lose tropical characteristics.”

• “[…] Helene dumped staggering amounts of rain over eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina, far inland and at much higher elevations in the Appalachian Mountains than people often consider to be at risk from hurricanes.” These historical levels of flooding, often exceeding the expected 1-in-a-1000 year occurrences for the area, were further exacerbated by (1) previous precipitation already saturating the ground earlier that week; and (2) by the region’s mountainous terrain and its “funneling” effect, creating the perfect storm of conditions for catastrophic flooding in lower-lying communities.

• The basic necessities of modern life have been lost for millions of people, even for those located thousands of miles inland, for nearly a week now. Critical infrastructure failures include power outages, disrupted telecommunications, impassable road and rail networks, and degraded utilities (example: no running water). Treacherous terrain continues to impair relief and reconstruction efforts for dozens of ravaged communities across six states, from Florida to North Carolina. You can even see this from space!

• And finally, with at least 200 people confirmed dead and hundreds more missing across the southeastern United States, Hurricane Helene “has become the deadliest mainland hurricane since Katrina in 2005” and may become the U.S’s fifth “billion dollar” hurricane in recorded history.

Despite all of this, however, I wanted to draw attention to yet another remarkable consequence left in the wake of Hurricane Helene, one best represented by the above example from the Town of Fort Myers Beach, Florida: the consequences of climate change and related natural disasters on the democratic process.

--

“To be sure, recycling the bottles, don’t throw the plastic away [and] compost your compostable things ... Start there, but if you want to do one thing about climate change: Vote.”

Bill Nye, as quoted at the Aspen Ideas Festival, July 2022

In what appears to be a tremendous irony, and despite being told that voting is the best way to address climate change (especially with Helene now at the forefront of the American presidential election), the very consequences of climate change can easily prevent us from executing one of the most fundamental and sacred tenets of Western democracy when it matters most.

In fact, this is a topic that’s received an astounding amount of attention from mainstream publications, including (but not limited to) CNN, New York Magazine, the New York Times, PBS, and the Huffington Post - which all note that Helene may adversely impact the upcoming American election season, especially in “battlefield” states like North Carolina or Georgia.

With flooded or otherwise inaccessible polling stations, extended mail service disruptions, diminished availability of poll workers, or the vast displacement of many thousands of American citizens, these are all consequences that interfere with one of our most treasured civic and democratic responsibilities: free and fair access to cast one’s vote and “have one’s voice” heard.

However, all these publications (unsurprisingly) offer some optimism on how each state may rapidly adapt to current circumstances, from establishing temporary polling stations to mandating greater flexibility in administering early and absentee voting for those displaced by disaster. That said, and I am going to be unusually positive here; let’s start with a quote by NY Magazine, followed up by a excerpt from the abstract of the referenced “major study”:

How Will Hurricane Helene Affect This Wildly Close Election?, Ed Kilgore

A lot of what we know about the impact of a major destructive storm on the willingness and ability of citizens to vote comes from Hurricane Sandy, which hammered parts of Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York in October 2012 during the run-up to a reasonably competitive presidential election. Sandy, to be clear, was much more proximate to Election Day (hitting the United States on October 29, eight days before the election) than Helene. On the other hand, early voting has become more significant since 2012, and mail ballots were going out in North Carolina when Helene roared across the area. The major study on the electoral impact of Sandy concluded that the famous “superstorm” did not have a significant impact on voter turnout in 2012.

-

Turnout and weather disruptions: Survey evidence from the 2012 presidential elections in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, N. Lasala-Blanco et. al

Contrary to the rational choice theories that assign a prominent role to the costs associated with voting to explain lower levels of turnout in the aggregate, including the weather turnout hypothesis, we find that the greater challenges to get to the polls caused by Hurricane Sandy and its aftermath made little difference in the individual decision to vote on November 6, 2012 in New York City. In line with the findings of Sinclair et al. (2011) as well as Schlozman et al. (2012), we argue that under certain circumstances personal motivation to vote can override minor and even major costs of voting even in noncompetitive elections, especially in local institutional contexts where political parties have consistently socialized and mobilized economically disadvantaged groups and minorities (Lasala-Blanco, 2014; Bridges, 1997).

When citizens perceive an election as either being a historic one (i.e., one that can alter major political and other arrangements in the country), or one that can have long-lasting effects on the immediate community of the voter (Sinclair et al., 2011), they are willing to endure costs such as low temperatures, long lines, and even travelling to distant polling places. This is true especially among economically disadvantaged and non-white communities that have been politically socialized by active political parties in their neighborhoods who have impressed on them the importance of civic participation.

Say what you will about the candidates or about the political future of the United States, but I find this particular academic insight to be utterly fascinating. If given the chance and choice, your fellow Americans will endure hardship to participate in the democratic process (whether as organizer, voter, or otherwise), especially if they believe that their vote may make all the difference for their community.

However, it remains to be seen as to whether the case of Hurricane Sandy will constitute a “one-off” outlier - or if this really is precedent of a “resilient” American democracy in action, despite all of its many flaws (yes, tongue-firmly-in-cheek here), especially as our ecological predicament continues to escalate; sometimes, much faster than expected.

Now ever-present in my mind is the question of how Western liberal democracy will evolve over the 21st century (and it will), especially as one looks at the continuing near-term trends of, say, flourishing far-right environmental movements or a likely future of catastrophic global disorder in the face of ecological collapse, possibly as soon as 2050. As Geoff Mann and Joel Wainwright so eloquently state in Climate Leviathan: “to say the least, the continuing hegemony of existing capitalist liberal democracy cannot be safely assumed.” I’ve even expressed similar doubts as such in a question posed to David Wallace-Wells in an r/collapse AMA around three years back.

As the Fort Myers Beach image so clearly illustrates, there - rather cynically - seems to be little point in casting a ballot to make a difference in averting inevitable climate disaster and ecological collapse, especially when the ocean is already at (and through) your door.

And with Milton on the horizon, perhaps this horror will grow mild and this darkness light.

—

If you enjoyed today’s piece, and if you also share my insatiable curiosity for the various interdisciplinary aspects of “collapse”, please consider taking a look at some of my other written and graphic works at my Substack Page – Myth of Progress. That said, as a proud member of this community, I will always endeavour to publish my work to r/collapse first.

My work is free, and will always be free; when it comes to educating others on the challenges of the human predicament, no amount of compensation will suffice … and if you’ve made it this far, then you have my sincere thanks.

As some of you know, I like to experiment with different mediums outside of text, meme images, and animated GIFs from time to time, such as audio narrations or meme videos.

This song was generated by SUNO AI, using (in some small part) a meme poster produced by Teenage Stepdad. As someone with a particular fondness for synthwave music, I thought this would be the perfect combination - and as is the case with all of my pieces, this song was produced for non-commercial and personal purposes.

Full and unsurprisingly edgy lyrics are posted below, perfect for any brooding doomer:

Smoke fills the sky at night
Factories silent, no more light
Shadows of steel turn to rust
Dreams of tomorrow turn to dust

Oceans rise, swallowing land
Breaking the sandcastles we planned
Forests burn under crimson glow
Nature we once loved now a foe

There's nowhere to go but down
The future is fucked
There's nowhere to go but down
Our time's out of luck

Oil wells dry, machines all halt
Pointing fingers, who's at fault?
Echoes of extinction fill the air
Global collapse and we despair

Oceans rise, swallowing land
Breaking the sandcastles we planned
Forests burn under crimson glow
Nature we once loved now a foe

There's nowhere to go but down
The future is fucked (the future is fucked!)
There's nowhere to go but down
Our time's out of -
Out of luck
Our foe

The future is fucked
Out of luck, our foe

If you enjoyed today’s piece, and if you also share my insatiable curiosity for the various interdisciplinary aspects of “collapse”, please consider taking a look at some of my other written and graphic works at my Substack Page – Myth of Progress. That said, as a proud member of this community, I will always endeavour to publish my work to r/collapse first.

My work is free, and will always be free; when it comes to educating others on the challenges of the human predicament, no amount of compensation will suffice … and if you’ve made it this far, then you have my sincere thanks.

The thread title also served as a “poll question” - and with around 2,600 votes, you’d be genuinely surprised by how close the vote ended up. A screenshot of the voting results is provided at the very bottom of this article.

And so, without further ado, let’s begin!

Today, I'd like to shake things up with a Casual Friday participatory poll. Not only to serve as a bellwether to assess our community's zeitgeist, but as an opportunity for everyone here to share their opinions - both for the record, and for whoever might read this in the future.

After all, there must be some good reasons as to why it is easier to imagine the end of the world rather than an end to capitalism.

And so, without further ado, here's some light reading to go with today's poll: the first quote is for some "homegrown" emotional context (thank you, /u/toni253!), and the second is from an "Anthropocene Marxist" perspective...

-

Pockets of Utopia, Antonio Melonio

[...] It should be quite obvious, at least to all who read this publication, that the current capitalist order is not only incompatible with Utopia, however you might define it, but also doomed to collapse.

Capitalism is based on endless growth, consumption, accumulation, exploitation, inequality, violence, and alienation. It is a system that destroys the natural resources that sustain life and replaces them with artificial needs and desires that, by design, can never be satisfied, and it generates social problems that can never be solved for solving them would mean destroying the system itself.

The signs of collapse are ubiquitous: climate change, ecological annihilation, economic crisis, social division, wars, endless wars. The system is cracking under its own weight. The system is failing us. The system is killing us. [...]

-

Marx in the Anthropocene: Towards The Idea of Degrowth Communism, Kohei Saito -- Pages 127 & 128:

[One] prediction for the future is as apocalyptic as Engels’s ‘revenge of nature’: the degradation of the natural environment generates a crisis for capital one day due to the end of Cheap Nature. However, considering the enormous elasticity of capital, it remains unclear whether capitalism or the Earth will collapse first.

There is no compelling reason to believe that capitalism will collapse under rising production costs and degrading natural conditions of production. This is unlikely, as capital can profit even from natural degradation by finding new opportunities for investment in such disasters too (Burkett 2006: 136). As Naomi Klein (2007) has documented, this possibility is clearly visible in what neoliberal ‘disaster capitalism’ has done in the last decades.

Capital continues to profit from current ecological crises by inventing new business opportunities such as fracking, geo-engineering, genetically modified organisms (GMOs), carbon trading and natural disaster insurance. Incessantly attempting to shift the [metabolic] rift, capitalism can keep going beyond these natural limits and accumulate more wealth.

In contrast, the current level of civilization cannot sustain itself beyond a certain point precisely due to objective natural limits. As far as the logic of capital’s accumulation is being estranged from human life and the sustainability of the ecosystem, the capitalist system might continue to exist, even if all the planetary boundaries are exceeded, but many parts of the earth will be unsuitable for civilization.

In short, there is simply no empirical evidence that the pressure on profit rates due to the increasing costs of circulating capital will bring about an ‘epochal crisis’ any time soon.

For example, it is necessary to realize net zero carbon emissions by 2050 to keep global warming within 1.5°C by 2100 [Myth’s Note: ... lol]. When this line is crossed, various effects might combine, thereby reinforcing their destructive impact on a global scale, especially upon those who live in the Global South. However, capitalist societies in the Global North will not necessarily collapse. This brief example suffices to show an enormous difference between the material conditions for capital accumulation and the maintenance of the liveable ecospheres. [...]

If you enjoyed today’s piece, but you'd prefer a more in-depth look at the interdisciplinary aspects of “collapse”, please consider checking out some of my longform works at my Substack Page – Myth of Progress. That said, as a proud member of this community, I will always endeavour to publish my work to r/collapse first.

My work is free, and will always be free; when it comes to educating others on the challenges of the human predicament, no amount of compensation will suffice... and if you've made it this far, then you have my sincere thanks. Here's one last gift for your time!

Myth’s Note: And, as promised, here are the poll results! Looks like “the Earth” will collapse before capitalism does!

When it comes to the collapse of complex societies, including contemporary global industrial civilization and our planetary biosphere, I believe that humour has a fundamental role to play when helping to educate, communicate with, or soothe those overwhelmed by the subject.

Of course, I had not really thought about “the accumulative environmental price tag of the endless digital trash we generate daily, then rarely if ever touch again” (to q until very recently when I stumbled across this Guardian article from a few weeks ago titled “Excess memes and ‘reply all’ emails are bad for climate, researcher warns”.

While I’d recommend giving this wonderful interview between the author (Helena Horton) and Professor Ian R. Hodgkinson a read, I thought that for the sake of deeper context and analysis, I’d pull out some key points and place them alongside some quotes from Hodgkinson’s other publicly available works. The intent here is to tell a quick story on the fascinating relationship between energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and data transmission & storage, so let’s begin:

• “... research has now found that the vast majority of data stored in the cloud is “dark data”, meaning it is used once then never visited again. That means that all the memes and jokes and films that we love to share with friends and family – from “All your base are belong to us”, through Ryan Gosling saying “Hey Girl”, to Tim Walz with a piglet – are out there somewhere, sitting in a datacentre, using up energy.” (Source: Excess memes and ‘reply all’ emails are bad for climate, researcher warns, Helena Horton)

• “Data centres alone account for 3% of the global electricity supply and consume more power than the entire United Kingdom (UK), contributing 2% of the total global greenhouse gas emissions (Bawden, 2016). The ‘store it all’ approach adopted by many organisations as evidenced in the migration to the cloud, for instance, is a significant threat to the pursuit of net-zero, given that the energy sector already accounts for 35% of total global emissions (UN, 2022).” (Source: Is there a role for knowledge management in saving the planet from too much data? [Editoral], Thomas W. Jackson & Ian R. Hodgkinson)

• “With recent reports suggesting that the total size of the ‘data-scape’ is increasing dramatically, the need to understand the relationship between data and energy is extremely pressing. This is in part evidenced by the increasing media attention on the energy-intensity of data centres, which play a central role in the digital world (Mikkonen & Wilson, 2023).” (Source: Debate: The data threat to 2050 net zero—public administrations’ responsibility for the ‘data-scape’, Thomas W. Jackson & Ian R. Hodgkinson)

• “Electricity consumption from data centres, artificial intelligence (AI) and the cryptocurrency sector could double by 2026. Data centres are significant drivers of growth in electricity demand in many regions. After globally consuming an estimated 460 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2022, data centres’ total electricity consumption could reach more than 1 000 TWh in 2026. This demand is roughly equivalent to the electricity consumption of Japan.” (Source: IEA – Electricity 2024: Analysis and Forecast to 2026)

• “The energy cost of 1GB of data is a hotly-contested debate —it is a complex and multifaceted issue, riddled with various interpretations and ambiguities in both academic and grey literature. This complexity arises from the diverse considerations involved in calculating kilowatt-hours (kWh) per unit of data, including data storage, transmission, and computing processes. Moreover, a lack of transparency among key players in the data industry further muddles the clarity of this matter (Mytton & Ashtine, 2022).” (Source: Debate: The data threat to 2050 net zero—public administrations’ responsibility for the ‘data-scape’ -- Thomas W. Jackson & Ian R. Hodgkinson)

• “At this juncture, you might wonder if it is even feasible to ascertain the average energy consumption associated with 1GB, considering the diverse paths it may traverse. This data could range from serving as the backbone for training a sophisticated Artificial Intelligence model, to being a YouTube video viewed by a handful or millions of people across the globe, or even residing in the depths of cold storage and largely forgotten.” (Source: Debate: The data threat to 2050 net zero—public administrations’ responsibility for the ‘data-scape’, Thomas W. Jackson & Ian R. Hodgkinson)

• “[Hodgkinson] discovered that 68% of data used by companies is never used again, and estimates that personal data tells the same story. “If we think about individuals and society more broadly, what we found is that many still assume that data is carbon neutral, but every piece of data whether it be an image, whether it be an Instagram post, whatever it is, there’s a carbon footprint attached to it. So when we’re storing things in the cloud, we think about the white fluffy cloud, but the reality is, these data centres are incredibly hot, incredibly noisy, they consume a large amount of energy.” (Source: Excess memes and ‘reply all’ emails are bad for climate, researcher warns, Helena Horton)

• “[...] global emissions from cloud computing have been observed to range from 2.5% to 3.7% of all global greenhouse gas emissions, thereby exceeding emissions from commercial flights (about 2.4%) and other existential activities that fuel our global economy (Lavi, 2022).” (Source: Is there a role for knowledge management in saving the planet from too much data? [Editoral], Thomas W. Jackson & Ian R. Hodgkinson).

• “Cloud operators and tech companies have a financial incentive to stop people from deleting junk data, as the more data that is stored, the more people pay to use their systems. [Professor Ian R. Hodgkinson]: “We’re paying for that storage. Now effectively, you’re paying for something which you’re not ever going to use again, because you’re not even aware it exists. And when we think about the significant costs it has for financial terms, but also the environment, to the bigger picture … we’re falling short of the required trajectory to meet that zero by 2050. There are maybe other big contributors to [greenhouse gas] emissions, which maybe haven’t been picked up. And we would certainly argue that data is one of those and it will grow and get bigger, particularly think about that huge explosion but also, we know through forecasts that in the next year to two, if we take all the renewable energy in the world, that wouldn’t be enough to accommodate the amount of energy data requires. So that’s quite a scary thought.” (Source: Excess memes and ‘reply all’ emails are bad for climate, researcher warns, Helena Horton)

And so, there you have it: the horrible truth behind some of the environmental impacts for each meme we create, share, store, and ultimately forget somewhere on some forlorn hard drive or data server, burning through our cheap inheritance of fossil fuel energy, before finding a resting place in some misbegotten pile of ever-growing toxic e-waste.

No punchline, just the consequences of our increasingly digital future.

—

If you enjoyed today’s piece, and if you also share my insatiable curiosity for the various interdisciplinary aspects of “collapse”, please consider taking a look at some of my other written and graphic works at my Substack Page – Myth of Progress. That said, as a proud member of this community, I will always endeavour to publish my work to r/collapse first.

My work is free, and will always be free; when it comes to educating others on the challenges of the human predicament, no amount of compensation will suffice … and if you’ve made it this far, then you have my sincere thanks.

Remarks at Amherst College – President John F. Kennedy (October 26, 1963)

I look forward to a great future for America – a future in which our country will match its military strength with our moral restraint, its wealth with our wisdom, its power with our purpose.

Remarks by President Biden on the Supreme Court’s Immunity Ruling (July 1, 2024)

The presidency is the most powerful office in the world.  It’s an office that not only tests your judgment, perhaps even more importantly it’s an office that can test your character because you not only face moments where you need the courage to exercise the full power of the presidency, you also face moments where you need the wisdom to respect the limits of the power of the office of the presidency.

This nation was founded on the principle that there are no kings in America.  Each — each of us is equal before the law.  No one — no one is above the law, not even the president of the United States. 

TRUMP v. UNITED STATES - Justice Sonia Sotomayor, dissenting (July 1, 2024)

Today’s decision to grant former Presidents criminal immunity reshapes the institution of the Presidency. It makes a mockery of the principle, foundational to our Constitution and system of Government, that no man is above the law.

[…]

Looking beyond the fate of this particular prosecution, the long-term consequences of today’s decision are stark. The Court effectively creates a law-free zone around the President, upsetting the status quo that has existed since the Founding. This new official-acts immunity now “lies about like a loaded weapon” for any President that wishes to place his own interests, his own political survival, or his own financial gain, above the interests of the Nation. Korematsu v. United States, 323 U. S. 214, 246 (1944) (Jackson, J., dissenting).

The President of the United States is the most powerful person in the country, and possibly the world. When he uses his official powers in any way, under the majority’s reasoning, he now will be insulated from criminal prosecution. Orders the Navy’s Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune. Organizes a military coup to hold onto power? Immune. Takes a bribe in exchange for a pardon? Immune. Immune, immune, immune.

Let the President violate the law, let him exploit the trappings of his office for personal gain, let him use his official power for evil ends. Because if he knew that he may one day face liability for breaking the law, he might not be as bold and fearless as we would like him to be. That is the majority’s message today.

Even if these nightmare scenarios never play out, and I pray they never do, the damage has been done. The relationship between the President and the people he serves has shifted irrevocably. In every use of official power, the President is now a king above the law.

[…]

Never in the history of our Republic has a President had reason to believe that he would be immune from criminal prosecution if he used the trappings of his office to violate the criminal law. Moving forward, however, all former Presidents will be cloaked in such immunity. If the occupant of that office misuses official power for personal gain, the criminal law that the rest of us must abide will not provide a backstop.

With fear for our democracy, I dissent.

Biden-Trump Debate Transcript - CNN (June 28, 2024)

Jack Tapper (CNN):  I’m going to give you a – a minute, President Trump, for a follow-up question I have.

After a jury convicted you of 34 felonies last month, you said if re-elected you would, quote, “have every right to go after,” unquote, your political opponents. You just talked about members of the Select Committee on January 6th going to jail.

Your main political opponent is standing on stage with you tonight. Can you clarify exactly what it means about you feeling you have every right to go after your political opponents?

President Donald J. Trump:  Well, I said my retribution is going to be success. We’re going to make this country successful again, because right now it’s a failing nation. My retribution’s going to be success.

Remarks by President Biden on the Supreme Court’s Immunity Ruling (July 1, 2024)

This is a fundamentally new principle, and it’s a dangerous precedent because the power of the office will no longer be constrained by the law, even including the Supreme Court of the United States.  The only limits will be self-imposed by the president alone.

This decision today has continued the Court’s attack in recent years on a wide range of long-established legal principles in our nation, from gutting voting rights and civil rights to taking away a woman’s right to choose to today’s decision that undermines the rule of law of this nation.

LOPER BRIGHT ENTERPRISES ET AL., PETITIONERS v. GINA RAIMONDO, SECRETARY OF COMMERCE, ET AL.; RELENTLESS, INC., ET AL., PETITIONERS v. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, ET AL. – Justice Elena Kagan, dissenting (June 28, 2024)

For 40 years, Chevron U. S. A. Inc. v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc., 467 U. S. 837 (1984), has served as a cornerstone of administrative law, allocating responsibility for statutory construction between courts and agencies. Under Chevron, a court uses all its normal interpretive tools to determine whether Congress has spoken to an issue. If the court finds Congress has done so, that is the end of the matter; the agency’s views make no difference. But if the court finds, at the end of its interpretive work, that Congress has left an ambiguity or gap, then a choice must be made. Who should give content to a statute when Congress’s instructions have run out? Should it be a court? Or should it be the agency Congress has charged with administering the statute?

The answer Chevron gives is that it should usually be the agency, within the bounds of reasonableness. That rule has formed the backdrop against which Congress, courts, and agencies—as well as regulated parties and the public—all have operated for decades. It has been applied in thousands of judicial decisions. It has become part of the warp and woof of modern government, supporting regulatory efforts of all kinds—to name a few, keeping air and water clean, food and drugs safe, and financial markets honest. And the rule is right.

This Court has long understood Chevron deference to reflect what Congress would want, and so to be rooted in a presumption of legislative intent. Congress knows that it does not—in fact cannot—write perfectly complete regulatory statutes. It knows that those statutes will inevitably contain ambiguities that some other actor will have to resolve, and gaps that some other actor will have to fill. And it would usually prefer that actor to be the responsible agency, not a court. Some interpretive issues arising in the regulatory context involve scientific or technical subject matter. Agencies have expertise in those areas; courts do not. Some demand a detailed understanding of complex and interdependent regulatory programs. Agencies know those programs inside-out; again, courts do not. And some present policy choices, including trade-offs between competing goods.

Agencies report to a President, who in turn answers to the public for his policy calls; courts have no such accountability and no proper basis for making policy. And of course Congress has conferred on that expert, experienced, and politically accountable agency the authority to administer—to make rules about and otherwise implement—the statute giving rise to the ambiguity or gap. Put all that together and deference to the agency is the almost obvious choice, based on an implicit congressional delegation of interpretive authority. We defer, the Court has explained, “because of a presumption that Congress” would have “desired the agency (rather than the courts)” to exercise “whatever degree of discretion” the statute allows. Smiley v. Citibank (South Dakota), N. A., 517 U. S. 735, 740–741 (1996)

Today, the Court flips the script: It is now “the courts (rather than the agency)” that will wield power when Congress has left an area of interpretive discretion. A rule of judicial humility gives way to a rule of judicial hubris.

In recent years, this Court has too often taken for itself decision-making authority Congress assigned to agencies. The Court has substituted its own judgment on workplace health for that of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration; its own judgment on climate change for that of the Environmental Protection Agency; and its own judgment on student loans for that of the Department of Education. See, e.g., National Federation of Independent Business v. OSHA, 595 U. S. 109 (2022); West Virginia v. EPA, 597 U. S. 697 (2022); Biden v. Nebraska, 600 U. S. 477 (2023).

[…]

WEST VIRGINIA ET AL. v. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA] ET AL.; THE NORTH AMERICAN COAL CORPORATION, PETITIONER v. EPA ET AL.; WESTMORELAND MIRING HOLDINGS LLC, PETITIONER v. EPA ET AL. - Justice Elena Kagan, dissenting (June 30, 2022)

Today, the Court strips the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) of the power Congress gave it to respond to “the most pressing environmental challenge of our time.” Massachusetts v. EPA, 549 U. S. 497, 505 (2007).

[…]

Congress charged EPA with addressing those potentially catastrophic harms, including through regulation of fossil fuel-fired power plants. Section 111 of the Clean Air Act directs EPA to regulate stationary sources of any substance that “causes, or contributes significantly to, air pollution” and that “may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare.” 42 U. S. C. §7411(b)(1)(A). Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases fit that description. See Cite as: 597 U. S. ____ (2022) 3 KAGAN, J., dissenting American Elec. Power, 564 U. S., at 416–417; Massachusetts, 549 U. S., at 528–532.

EPA thus serves as the Nation’s “primary regulator of greenhouse gas emissions.” American Elec. Power, 564 U. S., at 428. And among the most significant of the entities it regulates are fossil-fuelfired (mainly coal- and natural-gas-fired) power plants. Today, those electricity-producing plants are responsible for about one quarter of the Nation’s greenhouse gas emissions. See EPA, Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Apr. 14, 2022), Curbing that output is a necessary part of any effective approach for addressing climate change.

[…]

… there are good reasons for Congress (within extremely broad limits) to get to call the shots. Congress knows about how government works in ways courts don’t. More specifically, Congress knows what mix of legislative and administrative action conduces to good policy. Courts should be modest.

Today, the Court is not. Section 111, most naturally read, authorizes EPA to develop the Clean Power Plan—in other words, to decide that generation shifting is the “best system of emission reduction” for power plants churning out carbon dioxide. Evaluating systems of emission reduction is what EPA does. And nothing in the rest of the Clean Air Act, or any other statute, suggests that Congress did not mean for the delegation it wrote to go as far as the text says. In rewriting that text, the Court substitutes its own ideas about delegations for Congress’s. And that means the Court substitutes its own ideas about policymaking for Congress’s. The Court will not allow the Clean Air Act to work as Congress instructed. The Court, rather than Congress, will decide how much regulation is too much.

The subject matter of the regulation here makes the Court’s intervention all the more troubling. Whatever else this Court may know about, it does not have a clue about how to address climate change. And let’s say the obvious: The stakes here are high. Yet the Court today prevents congressionally authorized agency action to curb power plants’ carbon dioxide emissions. The Court appoints itself—instead of Congress or the expert agency—the decision maker on climate policy. I cannot think of many things more frightening. Respectfully, I dissent.

CONTINUED - LOPER BRIGHT ENTERPRISES ET AL., PETITIONERS v. GINA RAIMONDO, SECRETARY OF COMMERCE, ET AL.; RELENTLESS, INC., ET AL., PETITIONERS v. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, ET AL. – Justice Elena Kagan, dissenting (June 28, 2024)

But evidently that was, for this Court, all too piecemeal. In one fell swoop, the majority today gives itself exclusive power over every open issue—no matter how expertise-driven or policy-laden—involving the meaning of regulatory law. As if it did not have enough on its plate, the majority turns itself into the country’s administrative czar. It defends that move as one (suddenly) required by the (nearly 80-year-old) Administrative Procedure Act. But the Act makes no such demand. Today’s decision is not one Congress directed. It is entirely the majority’s choice.

[…]

It barely tries to advance the usual factors this Court invokes for overruling precedent. Its justification comes down, in the end, to this: Courts must have more say over regulation—over the provision of health care, the protection of the environment, the safety of consumer products, the efficacy of transportation systems, and so on. A longstanding precedent at the crux of administrative governance thus falls victim to a bald assertion of judicial authority. The majority disdains restraint, and grasps for power.

[…]

Congress would usually think agencies the better choice to resolve the ambiguities and fill the gaps in regulatory statutes. Because agencies are “experts in the field.” And because they are part of a political branch, with a claim to making interstitial policy. And because Congress has charged them, not us, with administering the statutes containing the open questions. At its core, Chevron is about respecting that allocation of responsibility—the conferral of primary authority over regulatory matters to agencies, not courts.

[…]

Today, the majority does not respect that judgment. It gives courts the power to make all manner of scientific and technical judgments. It gives courts the power to make all manner of policy calls, including about how to weigh competing goods and values. (See Chevron itself.) It puts courts at the apex of the administrative process as to every conceivable subject—because there are always gaps and ambiguities in regulatory statutes, and often of great import. What actions can be taken to address climate change or other environmental challenges? What will the Nation’s health-care system look like in the coming decades? Or the financial or transportation systems? What rules are going to constrain the development of A.I.?

In every sphere of current or future federal regulation, expect courts from now on to play a commanding role. It is not a role Congress has given to them, in the APA or any other statute. It is a role this Court has now claimed for itself, as well as for other judges.

And that claim requires disrespecting, too, this Court’s precedent. There are no special reasons, of the kind usually invoked for overturning precedent, to eliminate Chevron deference. And given Chevron’s pervasiveness, the decision to do so is likely to produce large-scale disruption. All that backs today’s decision is the majority’s belief that Chevron was wrong—that it gave agencies too much power and courts not enough. But shifting views about the worth of regulatory actors and their work do not justify overhauling a cornerstone of administrative law. In that sense too, today’s majority has lost sight of its proper role.

And it is impossible to pretend that today’s decision is a one-off, in either its treatment of agencies or its treatment of precedent. […]

Biden-Trump Debate Transcript (June 28, 2024)

President Joseph R. Biden: The idea that somehow we are this failing country, I never heard a president talk like this before. We – we’re the envy of the world. Name me a single major country president who wouldn’t trade places with the United States of America. For all our problems and all our opportunities, we’re the most progressive country in the world in getting things done. We’re the strongest country in the world. We’re a country in the world who keeps our word and everybody trusts us, all of our allies.

Crisis of Confidence Speech - President Jimmy Carter (July 15, 1979)

[…] The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America.

The confidence that we have always had as a people is not simply some romantic dream or a proverb in a dusty book that we read just on the Fourth of July.

It is the idea which founded our nation and has guided our development as a people. Confidence in the future has supported everything else -- public institutions and private enterprise, our own families, and the very Constitution of the United States. Confidence has defined our course and has served as a link between generations. We've always believed in something called progress. We've always had a faith that the days of our children would be better than our own.

Our people are losing that faith, not only in government itself but in the ability as citizens to serve as the ultimate rulers and shapers of our democracy. As a people we know our past and we are proud of it. Our progress has been part of the living history of America, even the world.

We always believed that we were part of a great movement of humanity itself called democracy, involved in the search for freedom, and that belief has always strengthened us in our purpose. But just as we are losing our confidence in the future, we are also beginning to close the door on our past. […]

Remarks by President Biden on the Supreme Court’s Immunity Ruling (July 1, 2024)

I concur with Justice Sotomayor’s dissent today.  She — here’s what she said.  She said, “In every use of official power, the president is now a king above the law.  With fear for our democracy, I dissent,” end of quote.

So should the American people dissent.  I dissent. 

May God bless you all.  And may God help preserve our democracy.  Thank you.  And may God protect our troops.

The American polity is cracked, and might collapse. Canada must prepare – Thomas Homer-Dixon (December 31, 2021)

By 2025, American democracy could collapse, causing extreme domestic political instability, including widespread civil violence. By 2030, if not sooner, the country could be governed by a right-wing dictatorship.

We mustn’t dismiss these possibilities just because they seem ludicrous or too horrible to imagine. In 2014, the suggestion that Donald Trump would become president would also have struck nearly everyone as absurd. But today we live in a world where the absurd regularly becomes real and the horrible commonplace.

Joe Biden’s parting gift to America will be Christian fascism - Chris Hedges (March 18, 2024)

Fear—fear of the return of Trump and Christian fascism—is the only card the Democrats have left to play. This will work in urban, liberal enclaves where college educated technocrats, part of the globalized knowledge economy, are busy scolding and demonizing the working class for their ingratitude.

The Democrats have foolishly written off these “deplorables” as a lost political cause. This precariat, the mantra goes, is victimized not by a predatory system built to enrich the billionaire class, but by their ignorance and individual failures. Dismissing the disenfranchised absolves the Democrats from advocating the legislation to protect and create decent-paying jobs.

Fear has no hold in deindustrialized urban landscapes and the neglected wastelands of rural America, where families struggle without sustainable work, an opioid crisis, food deserts, personal bankruptcies, evictions, crippling debt and profound despair.

They want what Trump wants. Vengeance. Who can blame them?

Heritage Foundation president celebrates Supreme Court immunity decision: “We are in the process of the second American Revolution”, Media Matters (July 2, 2024) - Interview Transcript: July 2, 2024, edition of Real America’s Voice’s War Room

Kevin Roberts (Heritage Foundation President): In spite of all this nonsense from the left, we are going to win. We're in the process of taking this country back. No one in the audience should be despairing.

No one should be discouraged. We ought to be really encouraged by what happened yesterday. And in spite of all of the injustice, which, of course, friends and audience of this show, of our friend Steve [Bannon] know, we are going to prevail.

[...]

If people in the audience are looking for something to read over Independence Day weekend, in addition to rereading the Declaration of Independence, read Hamilton's No. 70 because there, along with some other essays, in some other essays, he talks about the importance of a vigorous executive.

[...]

And so I come full circle on this response and just want to encourage you with some substance that we are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.

We’re a failing nation right now. We’re a seriously failing nation. And we’re a failing nation because of him.

[…]

… we’re in a failing nation, but it’s not going to be failing anymore.

We’re going to make it great again.

Biden-Trump Debate Transcript – President Donald J. Trump  (June 28, 2024)

—

If you enjoyed today’s piece, and if you also share my insatiable curiosity for the various interdisciplinary aspects of “collapse”, please consider taking a look at some of my other written and graphic works at my Substack Page – Myth of Progress. That said, as a proud member of this community, I will always endeavour to publish my work to r/collapse first.

My work is free, and will always be free; when it comes to educating others on the challenges of the human predicament, no amount of compensation will suffice … and if you’ve made it this far, then you have my sincere thanks.

For those of you who have endured this article, here’s one last gift for your efforts. You probably feel exactly the same way I do.

MrJon is our principal host for this AMA, and Tashi is in the background ensuring that everything goes off without a hitch.

My own specific question is asked at the 23:12 mark - here’s the YouTube clip for the curious, and the full transcript of said enquiry can be found below:

Myth’s Question: To begin, Dr. Cline, I wanted to sincerely thank you for being here today. I’ve studied your work for some time, and I’ve always been impressed by your detailed analysis and your storytelling skills.

It’s a rare combination and gift, and your impromptu lecture just now is a great example.

However, I’d like to ask you a more philosophical question – first with some lengthy context, followed by a direct question about the common sense suggestions you’ve noted just now. This will take a minute or two. Let’s begin:

There’s a particularly romantic analogy that you’ve repeatedly used in your work, both in previous lectures and at the very end of 1177 BC. To quote:

“Sometimes, it takes a large-scale wildfire to help renew the ecosystem of an old growth forest and allow it to thrive afresh.”

It is a wonderful analogy for the recurrent nature of civilization rise and collapse, but there’s one key quirk that I think we should keep in mind: I do not believe that any animal within a raging forest fire would appreciate that sentiment as they are burned or smothered alive.

You’ve also drawn comparisons between the Late Bronze Age and our contemporary context and predicament, something I very much appreciate – there’s always a lesson to be learned from those who collapsed before us.

However, as Joseph Tainter notes in his book, The Collapse of Complex Societies, quote:

“There are major differences between the current and ancient worlds. One of these is that the world is full – that is to say, it is filled with complex societies. These occupy every sector of the global, except the most desolate. Every nation is limited to, and influenced by the major powers, and most are strongly linked with one power block or another.

[...]

Collapse, if it comes again, will this time be global. No longer can any individual nation collapse. World civilization will collapse collapse. Competitors who evolve as peers collapse in a like manner.”

I believe that there is some immediate relevance to Tainter’s words here, especially in reference to a set of quotes you gave in a recent interview with Slate titled “Is It Possible to Have A Positive Collapse”. To quote: “Cline told me that he believes there’s about a 90% chance of a global systems collapse in the next century – whether caused by climate change, nuclear war, another pandemic, AI, or as in the Late Bronze Age, some combination of factors.”

“Again, we’ve got that globalized, connected network,” Cline notes, “and if that crashes, we’re pretty much sunk, at least in the short-term. We go back to Square One, probably back before the age of steam. We might find ourselves living back in the Middle Ages.”

In the final stretch of this question, let’s return to the forest fire analogy here.

No forest can actively live in a fire, but it can adapt to a recurrent wildfire cycle. We’ve seen tree species adapt to these conditions through the selection of traits – thicker bark, underground dormant buds, or even the heat activation of pine cones where the fires melt the resin casing, and the mature seeds contained within are released and scattered among the winds.

Seeing as we’ve had a few thousand years of recurrent civilization collapse, surely there must be some traits that favour the survival or transformation of a given society, and it appears you explore this question in your latest book.

So, in sum, my question to you is as follows: In the context of your research, and if global systems collapse is presumed to be a likely outcome this century, then what are the best traits or “common sense” features of a given society to survive or adapt to a seemingly inevitable collapse or subsequent regeneration?

—

What? - Collapse Discord AMA with …

Who? - Dr. Eric H. Cline, Archaeologist & Author

Where? - https://discord.gg/collapse-415671701549088790

Here’s a direct link to the AMA Event: https://discord.gg/UPVzA3YT?event=1247651606942711932

When? - Sunday, June 9, 2024

• PST: 8:00 (8:00 AM)

• EST: 11:00 (11:00 AM)

• UTC: 15:00 (3:00 PM)

—

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, gather ‘round – for this upcoming Sunday, I’d like to invite you all to the performance of a lifetime. From an assortment of a few bright minds kind enough to host this “Ask Me Anything” on the Unofficial Collapse Discord, I am pleased to announce our collective guest of honour: Dr. Eric H. Cline. To quote:

An archaeologist and ancient historian by training, Dr. Cline’s primary fields of study are biblical archaeology, the military history of the Mediterranean world from antiquity to present, and the international connections between Greece, Egypt, and the Near East during the Late Bronze Age (1700-1100 BCE). He is an experienced and active field archaeologist, with more than 30 seasons of excavation and survey to his credit since 1980 in Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Cyprus, Greece, Crete, and the United States.

He is perhaps best known for his work on collapse and resilience in the ancient world, specifically at the end of the second millennium BCE and the early first millennium BCE in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, epitomized by the best-selling [book], 1177 BC: The Year Civilization Collapsed (Princeton 2014; revised edition 2021).

I first learned of Dr. Cline’s work a few years back investigating the digital annals of YouTube. Set in the dry lecture halls of academia, I was enthralled by a video detailing his thorough exploration of the decline and fall of various eastern Mediterranean societies (such as the Myceanean Greeks and the Hittites) during the twelfth century BCE,

Otherwise known as the Late Bronze Age Collapse, Dr. Cline’s video lecture (and decade-old magnum opus) tells the story of how this intertwined and interconnected network of various city-states, empires, and political entities found their fate all bound together as they faced down a complex polycrisis of historical proportions: earthquakes, famines, droughts, internal rebellions, external invasions, and the eventual decline and dissolution of international trade. Those decades of turmoil and devastation most famously culminated in the Battle of Djahy between the forces of Ramses III and the mysterious and misunderstood Sea Peoples – and I’m even told that in the end, the Pharaoh’s victory was quite the relief for the Egyptians!

If you ever get a chance, I’d recommend taking a peek at 1177 BC – it’s delightfully detailed, and serves as one of the most comprehensive yet accessible histories associated with the Bronze Age collapse. In more recent times, however, Dr. Cline has turned his attention to what comes afterwards. As he notes near the end of 1177 BC, “one of the most interesting and fertile fields of current research on the ancient world lies in the consideration of what happens after civilization collapse, “beyond collapse”, but this is a topic for another book.”

For those seeking to learn more on his latest book, After 1177 BC, I’d recommend taking a look at one of his most recent interviews with Slate: Is It Possible to Have a “Positive Collapse”? As noted in the interview, “in this book, he portrays collapse as a disruptive but also potentially creative force that can seed revolutions and renaissances—perhaps even necessary for civilizations to advance in a cyclical pattern of integration and fragmentation over centuries and millennia.”

If you do have any potential questions, feel free to list them below, and I’ll do my damnedest to make sure they make it to the hands of our AMA hosts by Sunday morning!

And even if you don’t, I’m certain that you were born with a sense of curiosity just waiting to be sated. Just take a seat with the rest of us in the digital audience, and enjoy this rare chance to participate in this historical lecture and Q&A period.

I hope to see you all there!

:)

I. The Watched Pot

II. A Quick Dip into SST Measurement History

III. The Consequences: Thermal Expansion, Ocean Currents, Atmospheric Energy, Habitat Destruction and Marine Heatwaves.

IV. The Causes: Anthropogenic GHG Emissions, El Niño, Aerosols and the Faustian Bargain

If you were inspired by this article to write and publish your own, then I would sincerely appreciate citation. Additionally, and if I’ve set this up correctly, there should be a text-to-speech audio version in the Substack app if you’d prefer to listen.

As always, we’ll start with a meme - and so, without further ado, please enjoy!

I. The Watched Pot

I want you all to imagine, if only for a moment, that you are a far off visitor approaching Earth. Perhaps you’ve managed to catch a ride upon the latest ship passing through the night – the first detected interstellar traveler to pass through our little solar system, ‘Oumuamua (a messenger from afar arriving first).

As you pass us by here on Spaceship Earth, you will definitely notice something rather peculiar about our pale blue dot – it’s a planet rich with water (liquid and frozen), covered by swirling clouds (mostly water vapor) above a few landmasses. Those oceans are essential to the Earth System; not only do our sapphire jewels cover the vast majority of our planet’s surface, but they hold an even greater treasure: they are home to half of all Life’s biomass, Life as we know it.

… and as we’re all beginning to discover, not only are the oceans our little shared pot of seawater, but it’s one that’s beginning to simmer.

In recent memory, we have all been assailed, abused, and assaulted by the ever-present sharing of this particular graph. This arrangement of data, as prepared by ClimateReanalyzer with support from the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine, represents the daily average global sea surface temperature (SST) over the extra-polar regions of the ocean (from 60ºS to 60 ºN) over the past four decades. Oh, and don’t worry, I’m certain that the polar oceans are in terrible condition too.

As we can all clearly see, the past two years (2023-2024) have served as a remarkable outlier to the point where, as of May 7^th, “the world’s oceans have broken temperature records every single day over the past year.” However, before we dive into the causes and consequences of global SST temperature rise, we have to take a step back and understand what we’re looking at and why it matters.

In fact, the above-mentioned graph is misleading in two key respects: (1) it only shows data from 1981 onwards (nothing before), but more importantly - (2) the very nature of average measurements cannot accurately reflect regional impacts and its dreadful outliers (such as marine heatwaves). Let’s begin with a quick history lesson:

II. A Quick Dip into SST Measurement History

Our longstanding pursuit to measure ocean water temperatures truly is a story of progress, scientific discovery, and clever innovation, a history that tracks its sources all the way back to the 1800s. It all started with an idea, a rope, a bucket, and a thermometer, all thrown overboard and drawn back up to eagerly waiting hands. Those temperatures were then recorded and kept safe in the logs of the curious and seafaring; little did those early pioneers realize that they would be setting the baseline data that so clearly explains our contemporary conundrum.

The insatiable desire of early scientists to dip their toes to test the waters, whether warm or cold, actually led to revolutionary advances in bucket technology. As the Copernicus Climate Change Service (“Copernicus”) states best:

Copernicus – Climate Indicators Sea Surface Temperatures [Archive Link]

In the 19th century, for example, SST measurements were made by drawing a water sample up to the ship’s deck in a wooden or canvas bucket. Canvas buckets became more common over time but were found to cool unacceptably under certain conditions; they were later replaced by specially-designed insulated buckets. From the 1930s onward, measurements started to be made in ship engine rooms, using the water taken in at depth for cooling and other purposes.

In contemporary times, we have a plethora of organized data sources at our fingertips – the measurements of a thousand passing ships, to a wide assortment of both stationary and drifting buoys, all peppered across the planet. Personally, I find that our ability to measure the temperatures of the ocean’s first couple of millimeters, no matter its location, to be the most remarkable aspect of this human endeavor.

Consider the instrument of measure in question: from up above in the dark void of space, orbiting satellites hurtling around our home at extraordinary speeds (often thousands of kilometers an hour) use their instruments to measure infrared emissions from the first few millimeters of the ocean’s surface - an awesome fact in the truest sense of the word. And as an essential irony to this story, those very satellites placed up in the heavens above were sent there by the very same fossil fuels that may end up dragging us all down to hell.

A bit of a tangent there, so let’s get back on track.

I’d like to show you a different graph this time, as prepared by Copernicus, to help contextualize rising global SSTs within both a historical and contemporary context:

Copernicus – Climate Indicators Sea Surface Temperatures

The average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the extrapolar ocean^[2] (60°S–60°N) has increased markedly since records began in 1850.

During the second half of the 19th century, the SST was relatively stable. During the first two decades of the 20th century, there was a period of cooling, followed by a period of warming during the 1930s and 1940s. There was then little overall change from the 1950s to the mid-1970s. In the late 1970s, the SST abruptly started to rise and this warming continues.

[…]

Differences between datasets are larger in the earlier parts of the records. This reflects both the sparse data coverage and uncertainties related to measurement techniques [Myth’s Note: I’m having flashbacks to cherry blossoms!].

For clarity and in the context of the graph above, “a SST anomaly is the difference in the current SST measurement form the long-term average temperature in a [given period of time], in a given place”. As NASA helpfully explains, not only can measuring these deviations from the norm provide insight into greater climatic cycles (such as El Niño and La Nina), but SSTs can generally be used to study more regionally based impacts. Examples include the changing nature of ocean currents, or even on a more local level, with the rising presence of marine heatwaves, ocean fronts, or upwellings as they occur.

Furthermore, the historical record reveals the oscillatory nature of global SSTs; similar to planetary tides, global SSTs have also risen and fallen over the 19^th and 20^th centuries – with a consistent warming trend inexorably marching upwards since around the 1970s. With gradual warming of our oceans, however, the extremes (such as those under El Niño) continue to worsen as the baseline shifts upwards, sort of like reoccurring king tides as global sea levels rise no matter how often the oceans retreat and return.

In sum, if one imagines the Earth’s oceans as a grand heat-battery that fundamentally shapes the weather and climate around us (from atmospheric and oceanic circulation, to precipitation patterns, to much more!), then you can probably imagine why industrial civilization might be in a bit of hot water right now.

III. The Consequences: Thermal Expansion, Ocean Currents, Atmospheric Energy, and Habitat Destruction & Marine Heatwaves

The consequences of rising sea surface temperatures, whether global or local, are remarkable in both their breadth and complexity to such a degree where it led to a weeks-long investigation. I will note, however, that I am not a scientist by any measure, and that I always welcome corrections and additions. For the sake of time and in an attempt to preserve reader interest, I have done my best to ascertain and summarize five key consequences of rising SSTs, all described below:

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Thermal Expansion:

The first key consequence, as you can imagine, comes in the form of thermal expansion. This concept, fundamental to the rules of nature around us, is fairly simple. Most materials, such as water, expand in volume as they become warmer, and shrink/compress as they cool off. The atoms and molecules that comprise said materials – say, H2O – will maintain greater distances from one another as they heat up (note the 4 degree C anomaly!); from what I understand, these molecules “push” their neighbors apart.

With an entire global ocean constantly bombarded by the energies of the sun, and with global warming exacerbated by our own contributions to the atmosphere (GHG emissions), we continue to energize our global oceanic heat-battery. With more than 90 percent of excess heat created by our activities being captured by the oceans, water temperatures rise – and we’re left with the resultant impact of thermal expansion: we know this better as “global sea level rise”. In fact, thermal expansion is responsible for about a third of total sea level rise since 2004; the remainder comes in the form of melting glaciers and ice caps.

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Ocean Currents:

The second consequence is, frankly speaking, a matter of current events. Here on Spaceship Earth, just as the wind blows, so do the oceans flow around the planet. They are, essentially, what makes the world’s water go round – not to mention warmth, oxygen, nutrients, and the organisms of Life itself – a set of global and regional conveyor belts that make Life as we know it possible.

The horizontal travel (circulation) and vertical mixing (convection) of these ocean currents depend upon temperature differences to function: warm water, imbued with less salinity, travels towards the planet’s cooler regions; from there, the water becomes colder and saltier, sinking down lower and flowing back to its point of origin.

However, and as noted in an article to more fulsomely quoted below, “increased warming of both hot and cold ocean currents shows that horizontal mixing of tropical heat to the poles is accelerating, and that vertical mixing with cold deep water is slowing down, leading to increased ocean stratification […].” While I had originally intended to use this research paper for the purposes of understanding coral bleaching, I wanted to commend the authors for their efforts to explain how rising sea surface temperatures adversely change and impact our global oceanic conveyor belts. It’s best to let them explain everything in the quote, complete with a reference to AMOC, so I’ll be quiet now:

2023 Record marine heat waves: coral reef bleaching HotSpot maps reveal global sea surface temperature extremes, coral mortality, and ocean circulation changes, Thomas J F Goreau and Raymond L Hayes (May 9, 2024) 

Satellite sea surface temperatures (SST) are based on infrared emission from the top millimeters of the sea surface. Changes in sea surface temperature result from alterations in (i) heat transport from the atmosphere due to modified winds and waves, (ii) horizontal transport in surface ocean currents, and (iii) vertical transport due to mixing of surface and deep water [6]. Although SST measurements provide instantaneous images only of two-dimensional surface heat distribution, regional changes in SST can provide insight into shifts in global heat circulation patterns. In the case of possible changes in vertical heat exchange, they provide unique insights that cannot be obtained from subsurface oceanographic measurements (Fig. 7), which are too sparse in time and space to document large-scale or long-term changes adequately.

All major warm currents show extreme warming during 2023, suggesting that heat transport from the tropics to the polar regions has accelerated, causing the most extreme HotSpots of all to be in the axis of the Kuro Shio and Gulf Stream currents. Increasing equatorial to polar heat transport is keeping the tropics relatively cool, making the heating greatest in subpolar oceans, acting as positive feedbacks that accelerate polar ice melting, albedo feedbacks, and increasing ocean stratification, all major global warming feedbacks that have been underestimated and are inadequately modelled in IPCC climate change projections.

All major cold currents also show extreme warming during 2023, suggesting strongly that heat transport in the cold current regions is slowing down, causing decreased upwelling and vertical mixing, and increasing vertical stratification.

The large-scale global patterns seen in all warm and cold currents almost perfectly match the spatial pattern of trends in global sea surface temperatures between 1983 and 2001 [5] (Fig. 8).

[…]

[…]

Decreased vertical exchange in cold surface currents and in upwelling zones increases thermal stratification and slows down the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), retains heat longer in the surface ocean, and reduces CO₂ exchange among the atmosphere, surface ocean, and the deep sea. The HotSpot maps from year to year suggest that upwelling systems can abruptly shut off, causing sudden sharp rises in regional air temperatures, and reducing air-ocean exchange of temperature and CO₂.

Decreased upwelling is causing bottom-up collapse of fisheries in all of the world’s most important upwelling zones, while overfishing is simultaneously causing their top-down collapse. This strongly suggests that most major currents are changing, and some could collapse entirely, which might add to potential collapse of the global AMOC deep water circulation [28] causing longer residence times for deep ocean water, greater heat accumulation at the surface [29], and lower ocean upwelling, primary production and fisheries catches.

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Atmospheric Energy:

It should come as no surprise that the oceans and the atmosphere continuously interact with one another, thereby making it one of the climate’s most important principal drivers. Additionally, seeing as “the top few meters of the ocean can hold as much energy as the entire atmosphere”, our unintentional efforts to supercharge the world’s greatest heat-battery over the past few decades has profound consequences on regional and global climate systems. As Dr. James Hansen explains best:

Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About The Coming Climate Catastrophe And Our Last Chance to Save Humanity, Dr. James Hansen (2009)

Global warming does increase the intensity of droughts and heat waves, and thus the area of forest fires. However, because a warm atmosphere holds more water vapor, global warming must also increase the intensity of the other extreme of the hydrological cycle – meaning heavier rains, more extreme floods, and more intense storms driven by latent heat, including thunderstorms, tornadoes, and tropical storms.

Beyond shifting the tracks of precipitation and water vapour (droughts in some locations, storms in other places, wet-bulb conditions in others yet), it’s why there’s so much ado about the upcoming 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season. SSTs in the North Atlantic are still at record highs, and the upcoming transition to La Nina sets the stage for hurricane formation in the Atlantic Ocean. To conclude this section, a set of lengthy quotes from Scientific American is also in order:

Record-Breaking Ocean Heat Wave Foreshadows a Dangerous Hurricane Season, Chelsea Harvey & E&E News (May 13, 2024) – Scientific American

Extreme ocean temperatures are jet fuel for tropical cyclones, driving more active hurricane seasons with bigger, stronger storms. They also can boost heat and humidity over nearby land areas, increasing risks to human health during the warmest parts of the year.

[…] the sustained heat [of the North Atlantic] is raising red flags for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. Several top research groups recently dropped their annual projections, and all of them predict an unusually busy summer.

Colorado State University has forecasted an “extremely active” hurricane season, one of the busiest it’s ever predicted this early in the year. The forecast calls for 23 named storms, which include both hurricanes and tropical storms, with five of them transitioning into major hurricanes at Category 3 or higher.

That’s compared with the long-term average of 14 named storms per season and three hurricanes. If this year’s forecast comes true, that would make 2024 the third most active season on record. The year 2020 still holds the title with a staggering 30 named storms.

Accuweather meteorologists, meanwhile, have predicted 20 to 25 named storms, with four to seven major hurricanes. And forecasters at the University of Pennsylvania have released an even more aggressive season outlook, with a record-breaking 33 named storms.

“In general, pretty much everybody’s on board for a very busy season,” said Phil Klotzbach, who leads the Colorado State University hurricane season forecasts.

There are two major reasons, he said.

The first is that the planet is currently transitioning out of El Niño and into La Niña. This cyclical pair of natural climate conditions causes ocean temperatures to temporarily shift in parts of the Pacific Ocean, warming during El Niño and cooling during La Niña. They also affect weather patterns elsewhere around the globe.

La Niña tends to be associated with more favorable wind conditions for hurricane formation in the Atlantic Ocean, meaning it’s often a precursor to an above-average season.

Extreme ocean temperatures are the second reason for the busy forecast. Warm waters are hurricane fuel, often contributing to a greater number of total storms. They also help hurricanes intensify faster, meaning a greater number of them likely will swell into major storms.

Ocean temperatures are currently hovering around the levels they typically reach in late July — and they’re likely to continue rising as the summer goes on. They may have dipped below record level for now, but they’re likely to remain at least well above average for the rest of the season.

“I think the die is cast at this point,” Klotzbach said.

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Marine Heatwaves & Habitat Destruction

In some perverse sense, I believe that I’ve saved the best (worst?) for last. It’s likely the one that most people will be able to relate to in some small capacity. It’s one of the key flaws associated with viewing surface sea temperatures solely from the perspective of global averages – it diminishes and veils the outliers that pull that average up: the anomalous and often persistent periods of elevated regional ocean temperatures: marine heatwaves.

While heat is mostly conceived of as an invisible threat, the consequences of rapid oceanic warming on ecosystems (whether short-lived or over the long haul) can directly be seen through any number of mass die-off events. Speaking from personal experience, I saw this occur with the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heat Dome, in which “marine biologists believe [air] temperature above 50 C and low tides led to mass deaths of mussels, clams, and sea stars.” If you live anywhere near the sea, then you likely also have your own personal anecdotes too, considering the records we broke across the world throughout all of 2023.

Despite being contrary to real life circumstances, the boiling frog metaphor becomes remarkably apt: when ocean temperatures surge, how on Earth can creatures of the sea be expected to adapt? They can’t exactly escape the pot before it comes to a “roiling boil”, so to speak. To quote Professor Helen Findlay, biological oceanographer at the Plymouth Marine Laboratory:

Temperature is hugely important in regulating biological processes, especially in the ocean where many creatures cannot regulate their own body temperature.  These processes impact how species grow, develop, reproduce and interact to make up a healthy ecosystem.  As we see more frequent and longer marine heatwaves and overall increases in ocean temperature, some species will be able to cope and some won’t.  

While some creatures are fortunate enough to make their escape to greener pastures, there is little refuge or escape in the waters for less-mobile forms of life. As the most emblematic victim to high sea surface temperatures, coral reefs across the planet are “the most sensitive ecosystem to high temperature, [and] are on the principal of mass extinction from global warming.”, To quote a succinct summary from a wonderfully well-written book by Jeff Goodell:

The Heat Will Kill You First: Life and Death on a Scorched Planet, Jeff Goodell (2023)

Marine heat waves are also inflicting massive damage on coral reefs where they are often called bleaching events). Reefs are the most biodiverse ecosystems on the planet – they occupy less than 1 percent of the ocean floor, but are home to more than 25 percent of marine life. Reefs are created by millions of coral colonies that build calcium carbonate skeletons.

For the past hundred million years or so, corals have thrived in a happy marriage with microscope plants called zooxanthellae that live embedded in their tissues. Zooxanthellae produce 85 to 95 of the corals’ food through photosynthesis. In return, corals give the plants protection, nutrients, and Co2, one of the ingredients for photosynthetic food production. This marriage, however, is exquisitely sensitive to changes in ocean temperatures. One or two degrees of warming, and the zooxanthellae become toxic to the corals. The corals spit them out and eventually starve to death, leaving behind their bleached skeletons behind.”

Now, it is entirely possible for corals to recover from heat stress given enough time and reduced temperatures, but a continuously inexorable climb in local ocean temperatures - along with more frequent marine heatwave - can simply win this long game of attrition at a much faster rate than evolution could ever permit. It truly cannot be emphasized enough: circumstances have become so terribly bad for the planet’s coral reefs that NOAA has confirmed that the fourth global coral bleaching event is now under way:

News Release – NOAA confirms 4^th global coral bleaching event (April 15, 2024)

Mass bleaching of coral reefs [being] confirmed throughout the tropics, including in Florida in the U.S.; the Caribbean; Brazil; the eastern Tropical Pacific (including Mexico, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia); Australia’s Great Barrier Reef; large areas of the South Pacific (including Fiji, Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Samoas and French Polynesia); the Red Sea (including the Gulf of Aqaba); the Persian Gulf; and the Gulf of Aden. NOAA has received confirmation of widespread bleaching across other parts of the Indian Ocean basin as well, including in Tanzania, Kenya, Mauritius, the Seychelles, Tromelin, Mayotte and off the western coast of Indonesia.

Of course, oceanic ecosystems do not function in isolation and solely in reference to themselves. One particularly fascinating interrelationship I stumbled across was the impact of rising surface sea temperatures on species not typically associated with marine heatwave die-offs: seafaring avian life. A form of life that is otherwise mobile, except when it must undertake its most sacred duty of all – nurturing and caring for their next generation. To quote:

Increasingly Frequent Ocean Heat Waves Trigger Mass Die-Offs of Sealife, and Grief in Marine Scientists, Bob Berwyn – Inside Climate News (May 1, 2024)

[… A] study released April 25 by the British Antarctic Survey shows that 16 major emperor penguin colonies lost numerous chicks as Antarctic sea ice rapidly dropped to a record low. The threat to emperor penguins has been projected by models, and last year’s mortalities’ connection with the unprecedented sea ice decline shows how extremes, rather than steady warming, can suddenly drive spikes of seabird mortality.

“It suggests to us that the ocean heat waves are reaching some kind of extreme threshold, because the birds are telling us they are really struggling,” Lavers said. “They’re having to try harder and further to find the things that they need.”

She said it doesn’t take a lot of warming to push their prey out range.

“Fish and squid and other prey like krill can move if it gets too warm,” she said. “But birds are really constrained because, especially in breeding season, they can only go so far, and they can only dive to a certain depth.”

In the most recent monitoring in Australia, the fact that many of the dead birds were breeding adults is particularly concerning, because seabirds are slow to reproduce, and the loss of a generation of breeding-age birds can leave a big hole in the population.

“That is what we experienced between November and February in Australia,” she said. “Nearly 100 percent of all the birds that washed up dead and dying on the beaches were breeding adults.”

--

And there you have it: five different consequences of rising global SSTs. As I said before, not only do our sapphire jewels cover the vast majority of our planet’s surface, but they hold an even greater treasure: they are home to half of all Life’s biomass, Life as we know it.

And if the oceans go, so will the world – and Life – as we’ve come to know it.

IV. The Causes: Anthropogenic GHG Emissions, El Niño, Aerosols, and the Faustian Bargain

And so, we finally land in the last part of today’s article: what’s driving us into the uncharted territory of rising SSTs? Why on Earth have global sea surface temperature been so unusually extreme over the past two years?

Great questions, both of them.

If you’ve been reading the mainstream news over the past few months, then you’ll typically find two principal candidates, complete with unanimous agreement from most academically-inclined institutions: the ever-increasing volume of humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions, further exacerbated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Let’s break this down real fast:

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Anthropogenic GHG Emissions:

Everyone essentially knows the basic story for this at this point: anthropogenic greenhouse gases trap more heat, which results in the oceans absorbing said heat, which in turn results in an increase in SSTs across the planet. While you can delve into the details, such as in the earlier section on ocean currents, there’s no denying this at this stage. No more questions. Next.

—

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle:

This is another prominent explanation you’ll find in most mainstream news articles, and understanding this particular phenomenon is integral to a working comprehension behind the underlying mechanics of our global climate system. The ENSO is composed of two parts, which typically occurs every three to seven years: El Niño warms the oceans, while La Niña cools them – sort of like the climate system version of yin and yang.

As mentioned in an earlier cited source from Copernicus (who appears to have removed this line with an updated version of the webpage), “the main modular of global SST variability on the inter-annual timescale is the ENSO, a naturally occurring phenomenon where ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific fluctuate, with the last ten years seeing both a strong El Niño and several La Niña events [not including 2023-4].”

As detailed in the Ocean Currents section, along with the image provided above, we can see how warm waters along the western coast of the Americas travel along with the trade winds across the Pacific west near the equator. This, in turn, which in turns brings along warm waters over to east Asia – and so, we have the return of the oceanic conveyor belt we had previously discussed.

During La Niña, these trade winds are stronger, which drives the conveyor belt – and the cold waters beneath the eastern Pacific are drawn up near by the American coast. After nearly three years of consecutive years of La Niña, from 2019 to around 2022, we now find ourselves on the other side of the ENSO: El Niño.

For El Niño, the conveyor belt slows down – the trade winds that blow west begin to taper off, which slows down the cycle, which in turn leaves warmer waters sitting near the aforementioned coastlines. It also happens to have an outsized effect on the global average SST for apparent reasons – the Pacific Ocean’s a big place, comprising around half of the total planet’s ocean area. You keep that warm water still for a bit so it can heat up, and now we’re cooking.

This explanation, however, isn’t sufficient in my mind for a few reasons. Yes, El Niño clearly contributed to higher than normal global average SSTs since 2023 – and this is a very common explanation, especially when one looks back at the public record. The record warming seen around the planet wasn’t just in the tropical Pacific, but around the world in places not typically affected by El Niño. Why? To quote NASA Earth Observatory, followed by Copernicus once again, and finished up with a spicy quote from Professor Daniela Schmidt:

NASA Earth Observatory – The Ocean Has A Fever – August 21, 2023

Scientists from NASA have taken a closer look at why. “There are a lot of things that affect the world’s sea surface temperatures, but two main factors have pushed them to record heights,” said Josh Willis, an oceanographer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). “We have an El Niño developing in the Pacific, and that’s on top of long-term global warming that has been pushing ocean temperatures steadily upward almost everywhere for a century.”

The map above shows sea surface temperature anomalies on August 21, 2023, when many areas were more than 3°C (5.4°F) warmer than normal. On that date, much of the central and eastern regions of the equatorial Pacific were unusually warm, the signature of a developing El Niño. As has been the case for weeks, large patches of warm water were also present in the Northwest Pacific near Japan and the Northeast Pacific near California and Oregon. Portions of the Indian, Southern, and Arctic Oceans also showed unusual warmth.

Copernicus - Global sea surface temperature reaches a record high – August 8, 2023

The high SSTs have coincided with the initial development of El Niño conditions, declared by the WMO in early July. This naturally occurring climate pattern of warmer-than-average SSTs in the tropical Pacific leads to a higher likelihood of unusually warm temperatures across many parts of the planet. However, the current El Niño event is still in its early stages and high SSTs outside of the equatorial Pacific basin are also playing an important role. This is particularly true in the North Atlantic.

Professor Daniela Schmidt, Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol:

“Copernicus’s excellent but scary compilation data shows what we had fears. The oceans are warming rapidly, unprecedentedly both in area and the deviation from the long term averages. This cannot be El Niño as it has only started to develop.”

This is where the story got a little more interesting to me – while almost every single news outlet refers to the principal drivers of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and El Niño, my research efforts drove me to consider unexpected sources. For those of you in the audience already familiar with the work, it’s now time to talk what I believe to be a third contributing factor – one that is both natural and manmade. For those who already know what I’m referencing with the Faustian Bargain, please – no spoilers!

To this end, we’ll need to talk about “a combination of contributing factors” to the extraordinarily high temperatures of the North Atlantic first. We’ll begin with something familiar – surface wind speeds, followed by a prelude to the last and final section of this article:

Copernicus – Record-breaking North Atlantic Ocean temperatures contribute to extreme marine heatwaves – July 6, 2023

While the causes of the anomalous warmth across the northeastern Atlantic are still a matter of research, there are already several contributing factors to take into consideration. These include atmospheric circulation, air pollution, and climate change trends:

[…]

Surface wind speeds are closely linked to sea surface temperatures because reduced wind speeds lead to a reduction in the mixing of surface water with the cooler water below, allowing the sea surface temperatures to increase. Lower wind speeds also weaken the upwelling of deeper, colder water along the Canary current, an ocean current flowing southward along the coast of West Africa and then westward into the North Atlantic near the Cape Verde islands.

Now, this is similar to the El Niño situation (the slowing conveyor belt), but an understanding of why the North Atlantic remains anomalous yet “supercharged” is important – especially with an upcoming hurricane season that inspires fear across academia. There is, however, one more contributing factor – one that I had not considered, and quite honestly it came as a surprise to me until I started studying this matter further. To continue the above-mentioned quote:

A further consequence of weaker surface winds is a reduction in the movement of Saharan dust westward over the north Atlantic. The lack of vertical mixing in the ocean may have contributed to the rapid increase in the sea surface temperatures, while the reduction in Saharan dust over the North Atlantic also reinforced the increasing temperatures. Typically, Saharan dust has the effect of scattering solar radiation back into space before it reaches the ocean surface.

That’s right.

It’s time to talk about aerosols.

Specifically, about those aerosols created by the very same fossil fuels that may end up dragging us all down to hell.

Aerosols and the Faustian Bargain

For those of you who have made it this far into this article, you have my genuine thanks. I hope that I’ve established enough of a scientific foundation for our collective understanding of the general consequences and causes of rising global sea surface temperatures.

In this final section, in our exploration of the impact of man-made aerosols on the climate system and global SSTs, we are now firmly beginning to delve into the complexities associated with the climate-energy system. In the realm of climate science, aerosol forcing is a fascinating topic – but one that is sorely in need of much more research, especially due to the complicated nature of atmospheric chemistry. We’ll begin with a quick review of what exactly an “aerosol” is:

Copernicus – Aerosols: are SO2 emissions reductions contributing to global warming? – August 1, 2023

What are aerosols?

Atmospheric aerosols are microscopic particulars, solid or liquid, suspended in a gas (our atmosphere in this instance). There are many natural sources of atmospheric aerosols, such as desert dust, sea spray, and salt from the oceans, biogenic aerosols from vegetation, wildfire smoke, or volcanoes to name a few.

The main anthropogenic sources of aerosols is emissions from combustion of fossil fuels, which emit a wide range of atmospheric pollutants including particular matter, nitrogen dioxide, and SO2. Sulphur dioxide emissions are the precursor of sulphate aerosol, which is a key player in Earth’s energy balance.

Aerosols’ influence on climate

Aerosols, by scattering, reflecting or absorbing sunlight, reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the lower layers of our atmosphere. The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) considers that there is “strong evidence for a substantive negative total aerosol effective radiative forcing”, that is, the amount of energy entering and leaving the atmosphere, but also acknowledges that “considerable uncertainty remains”.

While aerosols have a direct cooling effect by filtering solar radiation, their effective contribution to global cooling, or warming when they are reduced, also referred to as negative or positive radiative forcing of aerosols, is still a matter of research, and not the easiest, due to the uncertainties of indirect effects such as sulphate aerosol impacts in cloud droplet formation.

Particles and pollutants play a role in increased and reduced cloud formation, complicating the situation further. Generally, sulphate aerosols are considered to act as cloud condensation nuclei, favouring cloud formation, therefore reducing the amount of solar radiation that reaches the surface.

At this point, you may be wondering – why so much emphasis on sulphate oxide emissions? Well, congratulations - this is what leads us all to the crux of today’s article. In the context of rising global SSTs, we are now entering hotly contested territory, especially as it relates to one of our few and truly successful exercises in global co-operation.

In our globalized world, where no stone remains unturned and no landmass left unexplored, international trade plies the waters around the world. For decades, tens of thousands of commercial seafaring vessels (the foundation of our global economic system) have made their way across the oceans whilst burning some of the dirtiest and worst quality fossil fuels imaginable.

The combustion of these bunker fuels would result in one of the world’s great and terrible environmental and public health threats: the uncontrolled emission of sulphur oxides into the air we all share and breathe. In recognition of this threat, and because of the International Maritime Organization’s clean air regulations, we’ve all been fortunate to see the gradual reduction in sulphur content in marine fuels. Rather than a carrot, the stick was quite the incentive – either you burn better fuel, or you’ll be deemed unseaworthy.

In a wonderfully written article published in CarbonBrief back in 2023, Dr. Zeke Hausfather and Professor Piers Forster clearly articulate some of the benefits we’ve enjoyed from this rare case of international collaboration. Not only have global sulphur dioxide emissions dropped by around 10% (especially after the rapid phase out in 2020), but this initiative will likely save tens of thousands of lives annually along the world’s coastlines.

Both Zausfather and Forster, however, note that there is one slight problem: a reduction in sulphur oxide emissions results in a consequential loss of sulphate aerosols. In conservative fashion, they note that the “Carbon Brief analysis shows that the likely side-effect of the 2020 regulations to cut air pollution from shipping is to increase global temperatures by around 0.05C by 2050. This is equivalent to approximately two additional years of emissions.”

That little detail doesn’t outweigh that rare bit of wonderful news, right? Surely it can’t be worse, right?

That’s the unfortunate part: the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

As I’ve mentioned, this is a hotly contested subject – and rightfully so.

In this final leg of today’s article, it’s time to review the works of a few maverick minds at the forefront of climate aerosol forcing. Oftentimes considered controversial, yet unnervingly accurate, we’ll need to review the research of a few scientists who are trying to fire off warning signals for those willing to consider and listen to their findings.

It is time to hear out Dr. James Hansen, among many other key researchers he works alongside with, including but not limited to Makiko Sato, Pushker Karecha, and Reto Ruedy. They argue that the impacts of aerosol climate forcing have long been underestimated and understudied by the IPCC and other major scientific institutions.

Unlike more conservative perspectives previously shared (including Copernicus), they hypothesize that our recent global initiative to reduce shipborne sulphate aerosols (especially after 2020) has resulted in an inadvertent experiment in solar radiation management (AKA geoengineering) on a global scale above Earth’s oceans.

When it comes to rising global sea surface temperatures, this noble experiment plays a vital third role (alongside our recent moderate El Nino and the background escalations of gradual global warming) in fostering the recent record-breaking 2023-2024 period; once previously disguised by La Nina from 2020 to 2022, it is now plain for all to see. A source for our five previously mentioned consequences. No good deed goes unpunished.

And as icing on the cake, no matter the health benefits, their removal from the atmosphere may have accelerated the rate of global warming, faster than expected.

It’s time to learn about the Faustian Bargain of climate change. To quote:

Global Warming Acceleration: Hope vs Hopium, Hansen et al (March 29, 2024)

Accumulating evidence supports the interpretation in our Pipeline paper: decreasing human-made aerosols increased Earth’s energy imbalance and accelerated global warming in the past decade. Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing, physically independent quantities were tied together by United Nations IPCC climate assessments that rely excessively on global climate models (GCMs) and fail to measure climate forcing by aerosols. IPCC’s best estimates for climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing both understate reality. […]

[…]

Global absorbed solar radiation (ASR) has increased dramatically since 2010, more than 1.4 W/m2 , equivalent to a CO2 increase of more than 100 ppm.9 The ASR increase is not due to a brightening Sun,10 it is due to a darkening Earth. Our task is to learn how much of this darkening is climate feedback (due to decreasing ice/snow and cloud albedo, i.e., reflectivity) and how much is climate forcing (due to decreasing aerosols). In note, we use the geographical distribution (global map) of ASR to infer that the forcing due to decreased ship aerosols is at least ~0.5 W/m2

[…]

Zonal mean ASR (Fig. 4) provides insight. ASR increases strongly since 2020 at latitudes 30-60°N, the region of reduced aerosols we have discussed. In the region where ship aerosols are expected to have a large effect (30-60°N) and in the entire region where ship effects may be significant (30°S-60°N), ASR increases in 2015-2020 and increases more in 2020-2023.

The Arctic ASR maxima are associated with sea ice minima in 2007, 2012, 2015-16 and 2020, while the double maximum near Antarctica is caused by increasing polynya (open water) near the Antarctic coast and decreasing ice cover at the northern boundary of Southern Ocean sea ice. The region 30°S-60°S is unlikely to have much ship aerosol effect (Fig. 3), so change of ASR there is more likely due to cloud feedback and unforced cloud variability

The climate forcing at 30-60°N implied by ASR is so large that we should expect a detectable surface temperature response. A major scientific issue has been raised by an unprecedented increase of global sea surface temperature (SST) in 2023, so it is appropriate to ask whether there is a relationship between the large increase in ASR and increased SST. Fig. 5 shows that the pattern of temperature change corresponds with the location and temporal development of the ASR anomaly. Coincidence does not prove causality, as high temperatures could cause reduced cloud cover and increased ASR, so we must seek additional evidence.

However, first, let’s draw attention to important information in Fig. 5. Much ado is being made about the increase of global SST in 2023. It suffices to reference a single article11 by Scott Dance, because Dance comprehensively describes fears and speculations of climate researchers who describe ocean surface warming as inexplicable, suggesting that the climate system may be undergoing some fundamental change in the way climate physics operates. Fears are expressed that new climate patterns are being established that will be irreversible on time scales from centuries to millennia.

The scientists reject, without any evidence to the contrary, the evidence we presented that IPCC’s best estimates for climate sensitivity and human-made aerosol forcing are substantial underestimates. They rule out, without evidence, our suggestion that decreases of aerosols, especially those produced by ships, are a significant climate forcing that is causing global warming acceleration. Instead, they make a blatant error by describing the current El Nino as historically strong and express concern that current record warmth may persist even under La Nina conditions.

The largest SST change is at 30-60°N (Fig. 5), the region with decreased aerosols. That SST increase did not appear suddenly in 2023 – it was well underway in 2020. During 2020- 2022 the tropics were in a La Nina cooling trend with the La Nina depth disguised by the effect of accelerated global warming on the temperature of upper ocean layers. Global SST made a big jump in 2023 because tropical, midlatitude, and polar temperature changes were all suddenly in warming phase. There is no basis for fear that new physics has come into play.

[…]

This estimate for the ship aerosol forcing is an order of magnitude (factor of ~10) greater than what follows from IPCC estimates. The 2021 IPCC report (AR6) pegs total aerosol forcing as 1.06 W/m2 in 2019, with 0.22 direct aerosol forcing and 0.84 the indirect effect on clouds. A 2021 update16 reduces the aerosol forcing to 0.98 W/m2 (0.21 direct, 0.77 indirect). Based on this small aerosol forcing, Hausfather and Forster17 obtain a forcing of 0.079 W/m2 for 100% implementation of 2020 IMO18 ship emission limits. Our estimate of 0.5-0.7 W/m2 refers to the actual (~80%) reduction of sulfates from ships. The difference with the Hausfather and Forster value is so large that it must be possible to resolve this issue within a few years.

[…]

The pink range in the Fig. 10 projection was based on Earth’s unprecedented energy imbalance and assumption that the current El Nino was similar to the super El Ninos.35 This El Nino is actually half-baked, not a super El Nino, but the 12-month mean global temperature may still approach ~1.6°C. Peak 12-month temperature during the 2016 super El Nino was 1.34°C, so a 1.6°C El Nino peak would be a warming rate between El Ninos (1.6-1.34)/(8 years) = 0.33°C/decade, an 84% acceleration over the 0.18°C/decade rate of 1970-2010, which is within the 50-100% acceleration expected due to the observed doubling of Earth’s energy imbalance.1 Better assessment of acceleration – independent of El Nino strength – will be provided by the average temperature of the El Nino peak and the next La Nina valley. We expect the average of the El Nino maximum and the La Nina minimum of global temperatures to be ~1.5°C. Given Earth’s huge energy imbalance – more energy coming in than going out – it will be clear that for all practical purposes the 1.5°C global warming level has been reached in the mid-2020s.

The ENSO will continue to wane and wax, with global temperatures inexorably rising higher with each passing year, a cycle that only brings waves of broken records and temporary relief. It’s only up from here, and there is only a slight chance that we might get to determine how fast this ocean of heat rises.

There are few silver linings to this cloud of information: beyond the immediate doom and gloom of this prophecy, research on aerosol climate forcing is in dire need of more investment. What data we do have, as we can see when we compared Hansen with Hausfather above, appears to contrast heavily. It’s a dire sign, a lighthouse in the fog, giving a vague warning of what we must do in the years to come.

At the end of the day, endeavors of science are pursuits of truth – and Dr. Hansen has a knack for speaking truth to power. At times of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act. It’s a call to action - and I can only hope that the scientific community will heed this message. It’s not too late for other great experiments in global collaboration, especially when our lives are on the line.

Otherwise, in my research, I have only found one potential saving grace with this research on man-made shipborne aerosols and rising global sea surface temperatures. In one recent publication, towards the end, Gwynne Dyer makes a fascinating argument that I worry that policymakers and politicians will support blindly if push comes to shove in an emergency, especially if we do not choose to study this complex predicament.

When it comes to any effort at geoengineering, we will only use the instruments that we have; welcome to the Option of First and Last Resort, a veritable deal with the devil himself:

Intervention Earth: Life-Saving Ideas from the World’s Climate Engineers, Gwynne Dyer (2024)

“The one tried and tested emergency measure that we could turn on at a global scale within weeks is going back to burning high sulfate (3.5 per cent) fuel oil in those 60,000 commercial vessels that carry the world’s trade. They wouldn’t burn it in harbour or while steaming through densely populated coastal areas, of course – people’s lungs matter, after all – but 90 per cent of their voyages are far from land. We could get back the ship tracks and one full degree of global cooling in a couple months if we went all out on that; with more effort we could probably get 2 degrees of cooling or more.

That is a capability that we should henceforward always have available at short notice, because we will be living in the danger zone permanently from now on.”

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And as one last final reminder, and with all of this assumed warming, the IMO’s initiative reduced global sulphur dioxide emissions by around 10% of our total worldwide. That’s all, and that doesn’t include any other manmade aerosols. Keep that in mind with everything I’ve just mentioned.

Welcome to the Faustian Bargain.

You’re damned if you do, and you’re damned if you don’t.

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Global Warming in the Pipeline, Hansen et. al (November 2, 2023)

“Human-made aerosols are the likely offset of GHG warming. Such aerosol cooling is a Faustian bargain because payment in enhanced global warming will come due once we can no longer tolerate the air pollution. Ambient air pollution causes millions of deaths per year, with particulates most responsible.”

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If you enjoyed today’s piece, and if you also share my insatiable curiosity for the various interdisciplinary aspects of “collapse”, please consider taking a look at some of my other written and graphic works at my Substack Page – Myth of Progress. That said, as a proud member of this community, I will always endeavor to publish my work to r/collapse first.

My work is free, and will always be free; when it comes to educating others on the challenges of the human predicament, no amount of compensation will suffice … and if you’ve made it this far, then you have my sincere thanks.

For those of you who have endured this article, here’s one last gift for your efforts. You probably feel exactly the same way I do.

;)

• 😩 🔥 Hot Singles In Your Area! Click Now! 💋 😳 -- Let's Read: "Extreme heat in North America, Europe and China in July 2023 made much more likely by climate change (World Weather Attribution)" (July 2023);

• We Are Damned Fools: POV you are Dr. James Hansen reminiscing about the first time you testified on global warming before US Senators on June 23, 1988 (August 2023); and

• Why 🌸Cherry Blossoms🌸 Keep Blooming Early in Kyoto: 1,200 Years of Climate Change History (March 2024)

And now, without further ado, let’s get started!

Silent Spring, Rachel Carson (1962)

There was a strange stillness. The birds, for example—where had they gone? Many people spoke of them, puzzled and disturbed. The feeding stations in the backyards were deserted. [...] It was a spring without voices. On the mornings that had once throbbed with the dawn chorus of robins, catbirds, doves, jays, wrens, and scores of other bird voices there was now no sound; only silence lay over the fields and woods and marsh.

World faces ‘deathly silence’ of nature as wildlife disappears, warn experts, Phoebe Weston – The Guardian (April 16, 2024)

As technology develops, sound has become an increasingly important way of measuring the health and biodiversity of ecosystems: our forests, soils and oceans all produce their own acoustic signatures. Scientists who use ecoacoustics to measure habitats and species say that quiet is falling across thousands of habitats, as the planet witnesses extraordinary losses in the density and variety of species. Disappearing or losing volume along with them are many familiar sounds: the morning calls of birds, rustle of mammals through undergrowth and summer hum of insects.

Today, tuning into some ecosystems reveals a “deathly silence”, said Prof Steve Simpson from the University of Bristol. “It is that race against time – we’ve only just discovered that they make such sounds, and yet we hear the sound disappearing.”

“The changes are profound. And they are happening everywhere,” said US soundscape recordist Bernie Krause, who has taken more than 5,000 hours of recordings from seven continents over the past 55 years. He estimates that 70% of his archive is from habitats that no longer exist.

Prof Bryan Pijanowski from Purdue University in the US has been listening to natural sounds for 40 years and taken recordings from virtually all of the world’s main types of ecosystems.

He said: “The sounds of the past that have been recorded and saved represent the sounds of species that might no longer be here – so that’s all we’ve got. The recordings that many of us have [are] of places that no longer exist, and we don’t even know what those species are. In that sense they are already acoustic fossils.”

Numerous studies are now documenting how natural soundscapes are changing, being disrupted and falling silent. A 2021 study in the journal Nature of 200,000 sites across North America and Europe found “pervasive loss of acoustic diversity and intensity of soundscapes across both continents over the past 25 years, driven by changes in species richness and abundance”. The authors added: “One of the fundamental pathways through which humans engage with nature is in chronic decline with potentially widespread implications for human health and wellbeing.”

Bird population declines and species turnover are changing the acoustic properties of spring soundscapes, Morrison et al. (2021)

Natural sounds, and bird song in particular, play a key role in building and maintaining our connection with nature, but widespread declines in bird populations mean that the acoustic properties of natural soundscapes may be changing. Using data-driven reconstructions of soundscapes in lieu of historical recordings, here we quantify changes in soundscape characteristics at more than 200,000 sites across North America and Europe. We integrate citizen science bird monitoring data with recordings of individual species to reveal a pervasive loss of acoustic diversity and intensity of soundscapes across both continents over the past 25 years, driven by changes in species richness and abundance. These results suggest that one of the fundamental pathways through which humans engage with nature is in chronic decline, with potentially widespread implications for human health and well-being.

—

Over half the world’s population now live in cities¹. Rapid urbanisation, along with increasingly sedentary lifestyles associated with a rise in electronic media, changing social norms, and shifting perceptions around outside play^2,3,4, are reducing people’s opportunities for direct contact with the natural environment. This so-called extinction of experience⁵ is driving a growing human-nature disconnect, with negative impacts on physical health, cognitive ability and psychological well-being^6,7,8,9,10. [...] Global biodiversity loss¹³ is also likely to be driving a dilution of experience, whereby the quality of those interactions with nature which do still occur is also being reduced¹⁴ but we do not yet know the extent of such changes.

Sound confers a sense of place and is a key pathway for engaging with, and benefitting from, nature¹⁵. Indeed, since Rachel Carson’s (1962) classic book “Silent Spring”, nature’s sounds have been inextricably linked to perceptions of environmental quality¹⁶, and the maintenance of natural soundscape integrity is increasingly being incorporated into conservation policy and action¹⁷. Birds are a major contributor to natural soundscapes¹⁸ and bird song, and song diversity in particular, plays an important role in defining the quality of nature experiences^15,19,20,21. Widespread reductions in both avian abundance²² and species richness²³, alongside increased biotic homogenisation²⁴, are therefore likely to be impacting the acoustic properties of natural soundscapes and potentially reducing the quality of nature contact experiences²⁵. Indeed, given that people predominantly hear, rather than see, birds^26,27, reductions in the quality of natural soundscapes are likely to be the mechanism through which the impact of ongoing population declines is most keenly felt by the general public.

However, the relationship between changes in avian community structure and the acoustic properties of natural soundscapes is nuanced and non-linear²⁸—the loss of a warbler species with a rich, complex song is likely to have a greater impact on soundscape characteristics than the loss of a raucous corvid or gull species, but this will depend on how many, and which, other species are present. The implications of biodiversity loss for local soundscape characteristics therefore cannot be directly predicted from count data alone.

State of the World’s Birds 2022: Insights and solutions for the biodiversity crisis, Haskell et al. - BirdLife International (2022)

Data from the IUCN [International Union for Conservation of Nature] Red List show that 49% of bird species worldwide (5,412) have declining populations, while 38% (4,234) are stable[;] just 6% (659) are increasing and 6% (693) have unknown trends. Declines are not restricted to rare and threatened species – even common and widespread species are declining rapidly in some cases. Although decline rates in these common species may not be great enough to classify them as globally threatened, the substantial reduction in the number of individuals is likely to impact ecosystem function and the provision of ecosystem services.

The most comprehensive long-term monitoring data for birds come from Europe and North America, where surveys started almost 50 years ago. Analysis of these survey data reveals the scale of loss of total bird abundance. There has been a net loss of 2.9 billion birds (29%) in North America since 1970. These losses have been most severe in species associated with grassland and those that migrate, with respective net losses of 700 million individuals across 31 species and 2.5 billion individuals across 419 species.

A similar trend has occurred in the European Union, which has experienced a net loss of 560-620 million birds (17-19%) since 1980 from an area five times smaller. Patterns of loss are similar to those in North America – long-distance migrants have fared worse than resident species, while farmland birds have shown the most significant declines. In both regions, losses are driven primarily by declines in a subset of common and abundant species.

Data on long-term trends in bird abundance are much scarcer in other parts of the world. However, there is increasing evidence that population declines are occurring around the globe. Recent reports have highlighted declines in near-ground and terrestrial insectivores in Brazil’s undisturbed Amazon rainforest, and resident, insectivorous and specialized species in the agricultural countryside of Coast Rica. In Kenya, 19 of 22 raptor species have declined since the 1970s, while Uganda’s forest and savannah specialist species have also suffered declines. Citizen science is helping to fill data gaps in some countries, revealing declines in grassland/shrub and wetland specialists in India and seabirds off south-eastern Australia.

Bird population declines and species turnover are changing the acoustic properties of spring soundscapes, Morrison et al. (2021)

Natural soundscapes are under ever-increasing pressure from global biodiversity loss and our results reveal a chronic deterioration in soundscape quality across North America and Europe over recent decades. Although we focus here on birds as the main contributors to natural soundscapes, it is likely that the reduction in quality has been even greater, given parallel declines in many other taxonomic groups that contribute to soundscapes^46,47. Furthermore, pervasive increases in anthropogenic noise⁴⁸ and other sensory pollutants⁴⁹ are also diluting the nature contact experience. For example, as well as directly impacting human behaviour and well-being⁵⁰, noise pollution impairs our capacity to perceive natural sounds⁵¹ and can limit the acoustic diversity of soundscapes by constraining the bandwidth within which birds sing^52,53.

A scarcity of historical recordings means any assessment of changes in natural soundscape characteristics over longer time periods is vulnerable to the impacts of shifting baseline syndrome⁵⁴, as future soundscapes can only be compared to the potentially already degraded soundscapes of today [...]

State of the World’s Birds 2022: Insights and solutions for the biodiversity crisis, Haskell et al. - BirdLife International (2022)

A wide range of threats are driving the extinction crisis, almost all of which are ultimately caused by human actions. [...]

The threats currently impacting the greatest number of globally threatened species [1,409 species identified] are agricultural expansion and intensification (1,026 species, 73% ), logging (710 species, 50%), invasive and other problematic species (567 species, 40%) and hunting (529 species, 38%), while climate change is already a significant threat (479 species, 34%) and will pose even greater future challenges.

These threats drive declines in bird populations through a variety of mechanisms. The most important is habitat conversion and degradation (1,336 species, 95%), while others cause direct mortality of individuals (862 species, 61%) or indirectly affect population, for example, through reduced reproductive success (510 species, 36%) or increased competition (134 species, 10%). Most species (90%) are affected by more than one threat, and many threats are interrelated – for example deforestation and climate change increase the risk of extreme wildfires.

Bird population declines and species turnover are changing the acoustic properties of spring soundscapes, Morrison et al. (2021)

Although visual, auditory, and olfactory senses are all important modalities characterising the nature contact experience^19,20, sound is a defining feature¹⁵. Our analyses of reconstructed soundscapes reveal previously undocumented changes in the acoustic properties of soundscapes across North America and Europe over the past few decades that signal a reduction in soundscape quality and imply an ongoing dilution of experience associated with nature interactions. While we expect these changes to be evident throughout the year, they are likely to be most pronounced during spring, when birds are most vocally active. Better understanding of exposure to changes in soundscape quality, by mapping them onto spatial patterns of human population density and locations at which nature is accessed, and of the specific soundscape characteristics that support and enhance the nature contact experience¹⁵, is now needed to fully appreciate the implications for health and well-being⁵⁶.

Reduced nature connectedness may also be contributing to the global environmental crisis, as there is evidence it can lead to reductions in pro-environmental behaviour^5,57,58. The potential for declining soundscape quality to contribute to a negative feedback loop, whereby a decline in the quality of nature contact experiences leads to reduced advocacy and financial support for conservation actions, and thus to further environmental degradation⁷, must also be recognised and addressed. Conservation policy and action need to ensure the protection and recovery of high-quality natural soundscapes to prevent chronic, pervasive deterioration and associated impacts on nature connectedness and health and well-being.

State of the World’s Birds 2022: Insights and solutions for the biodiversity crisis, Haskell et al. - BirdLife International (2022)

We are in the midst of an extinction crisis. It is widely acknowledged that the planet is facing its sixth mass extinction event, with the current extinction rate tens of hundreds of times faster than the average over the last 10 million years. Up to a million plant and animal species are now estimated to be threatened with extinction, many of which may disappear within decades. The extinction risk of birds has been repeatedly assessed by BirdLife International for the IUCN Red List since 1988, providing the longest trend data for any species.

At least 187 bird species are confirmed or suspected to have gone extinct since 1500. The majority of these extinctions have been endemic island species, including 33 from Hawaii, 32 from the Mascarene Islands, 20 from New Zealand, and 16 from French Polynesia, most of which were killed off by introduced mammals. However, more recently there has been an upsurge in continental bird extinctions, particularly in highly fragmented tropical regions. Brazil has lost two bird species endemic to its Atlantic forest in the last two decades – Cryptic Treehunter Cichlocolaptes mazarbarnetti and Alagoas Foliage-gleaner Philydor novaesi – which a third, Pernambuco Pygmy-owl Glaucidium mooreorum, has not been recorded since 2001 and is therefore also suspected to be extinct.

2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years, Jorgen Randers (2012)

So, if you would like to see great biodiversity in the flesh, do it now. If you [...] prefer electronic tourism, you can relax. Most great biodiversity has already been recorded electronically—and in detail. Future audiences will still be able to experience beautiful biodiversity after the original is gone. But the real firsthand experience of the staggering beauty and intrinsic harmony of undisturbed biodiversity is something different. See it now; soon it will be too late.

World faces ‘deathly silence’ of nature as wildlife disappears, warn experts, Phoebe Weston – The Guardian (April 16, 2024)

For many researchers, disappearing soundscapes are a source of grief as well as of scientific interest. “It’s a sad thing to be doing, but it’s also helping me tell a story about the beauty of nature,” said [Prof Bryan] Pijanowski. “As a scientist I have trouble explaining what biodiversity is, but if I play a recording and say what I’m talking about – these are the voices of this place. We can either work to preserve it or not.”

“Sound is the most powerful trigger of emotions for humans. Acoustic memories are very strong too. I’m thinking about it as a scientist, but it’s hard not to be emotional.”

Recording Of The Last Kauai 'ōʻō Bird - YouTube [Video Link] & Internet Archive [Sound File]

The last Kauaʻi ʻōʻō was male. His last song was recorded for the Cornell Lab of Ornithology. He is singing a mating call out in the wild, waiting for any female to appear and complete the duet (identified by the pauses in the birdsong). No one would ever respond.

Listed endangered by the U.S.A in 1967.

Widowed in 1982, mate likely killed by Hurricane Iwa.

Last spotted in 1985.

Last heard in 1987.

Declared extinct by IUCN in 1992.

Declared extinct by the U.S.A in 2023.

A species (M. braccatus), a genus (Moho), and a family (Mohoidae) permanently silenced forever.

If you enjoyed today’s piece, and if you also share my insatiable curiosity for the various interdisciplinary aspects of “collapse”, please consider taking a look at some of my other written and graphic works at my Substack Page – Myth of Progress. That said, as a proud member of this community, I will always endeavour to publish my work to r/collapse first.

My work is free, and will always be free; when it comes to educating others on the challenges of the human predicament, no amount of compensation will suffice … and if you’ve made it this far, then you have my sincere thanks.

—

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A few months ago, I had the good fortune to stumble across one of the most fascinating podcasts that I’ve ever discovered - Tipping Point: The True Story of "The Limits to Growth". It’s an extraordinarily detailed and well-researched true-crime-style podcast miniseries created by Katy Shields and Vegard Beyer, who describe their aural masterpiece as follows:

Tipping Point: The True Story of The Limits to Growth was the culmination of a four-year research effort to understand why humanity ignored the seminal 1972 book The Limits to Growth, and what we can learn from it. Based on late author Dana Meadows' unpublished memoirs and featuring rare original audio recordings, this podcast accompanies Dana and Dennis Meadows and their team of scientists on their mission to educate the world about coming ecological crises and their solutions.

For those looking for more context as to what the Limits to Growth study actually was, here’s a quick summary from Richard Heinberg:

The Limits to Growth at 50: From Scenarios to Unfolding Reality, Richard Heinberg

A half-century ago, the worlds of science, public policy, and economics were rocked by a prominent book, The Limits to Growth, authored by four systems scientists (Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William Behrens III) from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The team produced computer-based scenarios showing that continued increases in population and industrial output would eventually prove to be unsustainable, and that the only path to a stable future was one in which levels of both population and industrial output were deliberately constrained by government policies. If growth continued, the crunch would not come immediately; the team’s “standard run” (or business-as-usual) scenario instead showed major disruptions to world systems commencing in the first half of the 21st century.

The Limits to Growth sold 12 million copies, was translated into 37 languages, and remains the top-selling environmental book ever published. However, prominent economists (including Robert Solow, Milton Friedman, and Julian Simon) bristled at the idea that growth might have limits, and issued rebuttals that, while failing to address the core arguments of the book, nevertheless were cited repeatedly over the following years as authoritative refutations (an excellent overview and history of the debate can be found in Ugo Bardi’s The Limits to Growth Revisited). The New York Times Book Review dismissed The Limits to Growth as “an empty and misleading work . . . garbage in, garbage out.” Newsweek (a far more influential publication then than now) called it “a piece of irresponsible nonsense.” Policy makers were happy to be relieved of the obligation to grapple with the book and its implications, and have essentially ignored it ever since.

(Myth's Note: The model standard run figure in Heinberg's piece might look familiar to the above image ... )

Sadly, the podcast has only enjoyed limited reception (around 20,000 streams and 100 reviews without a promotional budget) since its original release last year. Not surprisingly, they’ve reached out to their mailing list in the past to assist them with spreading the word. To quote them exactly from said e-mail:

The journey has been incredible so far. With close to 20,000 streams in just four months (without any promotional budget), endorsements from renowned thought leaders, and a place in university curricula worldwide, our podcast has begun to make waves about this important story. But we believe that this is just the beginning. Our primary goal remains – to ensure this crucial story reaches as wide an audience as possible. [...]

And now, with their previous requests in mind and with an unannounced Scary Line Day suddenly upon us, I felt that it was finally time to deploy today’s meme-advertisement; it's one that I’ve had waiting on my desktop for far too long. Think of this thread as one content creator giving their support to another, especially to those who enjoy educating others with their detailed research!

Today’s meme combines two sources: the first being an ABC Australia News Special from 1973 ... and the second, of course, being this absolutely wonderful narrative history that I wanted to share with you all today. As the week is just beginning, I really do hope you’ll give it a listen. The three episodes are as follows - note that they're all available on your music streaming service of choice:

-

The Problematique (Part 1)

Kicking off in Harvard in the late 1960s, Part 1 explores how young scientists found themselves thrust into one of the most controversial – but also prescient – scientific projects of all time.

-

Maybe We Did Want to Save the World (Part 2)

Part 2 dives into the serendipitous and somewhat chaotic circumstances that thrust the book, initially not intended as a book or for a large audience, into the global spotlight, and recounts the intense PR struggle that would ensue. (Myth's Note: This is when the podcast gets spicy.)

-

Where Are We Going, Really? (Part 3)

Part 3 takes a deep dive into how the researchers navigated the aftermath of their seminal publication, including their second attempt to warn the world in the 1990s, and track the post-2000 resurgence of interest in their work against the backdrop of escalating environmental crises.

--

And finally, for those who are more academically inclined, I’d like to give you all one last set of parting gifts – free PDF files for the Limits to Growth (1972, 1993, and 2004), along with those who carry on the great work. Please enjoy! :)

• The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind (1972)

• Beyond the limits : confronting global collapse, envisioning a sustainable future (1993)

• Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update (2004) -- (Synopsis here!)

• Is Global Collapse Imminent? An Updated Comparison of The Limits to Growth with Historical Data (2014), Graham Turner

• Update to Limits to Growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data (2020), Gaya Herrington

• 😩 🔥 Hot Singles In Your Area! Click Now! 💋 😳 -- Let's Read: "Extreme heat in North America, Europe and China in July 2023 made much more likely by climate change (World Weather Attribution)" (July 2023); and

• We Are Damned Fools: POV you are Dr. James Hansen reminiscing about the first time you testified on global warming before US Senators on June 23, 1988 (August 2023)

And now, without further ado, let’s get started!

—

Samazama no
Koto omoidasu
Sakura kana

How many, many things
They call to mind
These cherry-blossoms!

Matsuo Bashō

--

With the recent passing of the March equinox, the heralds of Spring – cherry tree blossoms – have finally made their long awaited arrival in my part of the world. Not only are they beautiful (both in appearance and symbolism), but their ever-earlier presence is a clear indicator of longer and warmer days yet to come, especially as we all blindly march forwards into the Anthropocene together.

Today’s meme is made from a combination of two sources: a famous reaction image from Arakawa Under the Bridge, paired with a graph depicting the “peak blossoming” date of Yamazakura cherry trees in Kyoto, Japan over the past 1,200 years (note the consistent warming trend post 1850 …).

In a world of Scary Line Graphs, it is simply astonishing to stumble across such a unique data set – not only for its long-term and deeply local perspective, but also for the depth of its bibliography. The data in this graph isn’t just the work of Yasuyuki Aono (and World In Data), but a compilation of historical sources stretching all the way back to previous millennia; from other scientists and meteorological data in the modern era, to the annals of history hidden away in the pages of ancient diaries, poems, and newspaper articles.

Of course, you might be wondering: how on Earth could we possible know when the cherry blossoms actually bloomed during all those years in Kyoto? Why the hell does this even matter? I’m so glad you asked, because I decided to investigate some of those sources myself.

What I found was an outstanding academic article prepared by Yasuyuki Aono and Keiko Kazui back in 2008, titled Phenological data series of cherry tree flowering in Kyoto, Japan, and its application to reconstruction of springtime temperatures since the 9^th century. In what I find to be an absolutely rarity these days, the paper is entertaining, educational, and eloquent – and if you have the ability to access said paper, I recommend that you give it a read. If you can’t, that’s alright; I’ll just give you a quick summary below. Let’s start with a quote:

Phenological data series of cherry tree flowering in Kyoto, Japan, and its application to reconstruction of springtime temperatures since the 9^th century.

As plants reach the various developmental stages of their annual life cycle, phenological events, such as leafing, flowering, and fruiting, occur. The timing of a phenological event fluctuates under the influence of integrated climatic conditions during the period of growth and development.

The plant phenological events in spring-time under the temperate climate occur, when the integrated climatic conditions, mainly temperature, are satisfactory. Therefore, the timing of a plant phenological event often provides information for estimating geographic climatic variation on a local scale.

Phenological data series of plants can be used as a proxy for climate change if the seasonal timing of a phenological event can be closely related to specific climatic conditions during plant development. Many studies have reconstructed historical climate changes by combining different types of proxy such as data from tree rings, sediments, and ice cores. Such climatic reconstruction requires that the proxy data be calibrated using known climatic conditions and the proxy record must also be dated.

Although phenological data series, acquired from historical records, enable climatic reconstruction on a shorter time scale than other proxies, the phenological data are accompanied by concrete dates, allowing precise reconstruction without requiring the use of an external dating procedure.

[…]

In Japan, the flowering of the cherry tree is the most commonly observed phenological event. Flowering is generally observed from late March to mid-April in western and central Japan, and shows inter-annual variation within a range of approximately 3 weeks at a given location. The inter-annual variation in the flowering time of the cherry tree depends closely on the general temperature conditions during the development of the flower buds in February and March.

Translation?

• By understanding when and how a plant (say, a cherry tree) blossoms, especially in relation to springtime temperatures, we can draw inferences on regional climatic conditions and variability from year to year;

• In the case of cherry blossoms, “the full-flowering date of cherry trees fluctuates in accordance with temperature conditions during February and March”, which in turn affects when they might bloom (typically in March and April); and

• Presuming that there is sufficient historical and instrumental data (such as temperature readings) to work with, we can use this as a proxy for climate change.

--

So, why Kyoto? Why not a different city?

Just as how cherry blossoms are one of Japan’s most culturally important flowers, so too is Kyoto one of Japan’s most culturally valuable cities. When I was much younger, I had the great fortune to spend a week in Kyoto – and what I saw astounded me.

Hundreds of intact shrines, temples, and castles, for example, can be found interspersed among the city’s modern urban fabric, centuries of histories just waiting to be discovered within its boundaries. Spared by the ravages of American bombings in the Second World War (among many other historical tragedies), Kyoto’s tenacity and survival is remarkable in many respects.

As the nation’s historical capital over previous millennia, we have a wealth of historical records to work with here – and the authors have definitely capitalized on that. The cherry blossoms of Kyoto, prized examples of Japan’s most culturally important flowers (sakura), have long been celebrated by the Japanese people whether at larger festivals and among smaller blossom-watching parties. Often undertaken during times of full-flowering, this longstanding practice is known as hanami (“flower watching”); a true joy for both men (and women) of culture, one that has existed in Kyoto since the 9th century.

A number of scholars have also acknowledged and explored this rich repository of material, and have frequently documented this treasured tradition as it appears in the historical record over this past century. Standing atop the shoulders of giants, Aono and Kazui give recognition to decades of work to those who came before them; we can also see how Aono has been at this research for quite some time now. Let’s continue: 

Phenological data series of cherry tree flowering in Kyoto, Japan, and its application to reconstruction of springtime temperatures since the 9^th century.

In Japan, routine phenological observations at weather stations only started only about 100 years ago. However, at Kyoto, which was the capital of Japan from A.D. 794 to 1868, Taguchi (1939) found old descriptions on the flowering of cherry trees in many diaries and chronicles, covering the total of about 100 years scattered between 812 and 1864. Arakawa (1956) considered these data to be a proxy for the full-flowering date of the cherry tree and discussed their utilization for historical climatic reconstruction. Sekiguchi (1969) added data for an additional 20 years and outlined climate change over the average full-flowering date for each century. Lauscher (1978) presented the data series of Kyoto, developed in earlier studies, in detail.

Aono and Omoto (1993) obtained full-flowering dates for the other 136 years scattered between [the] 10^th and 19^th centuries from further investigation of additional old diaries and chronicles and added them to the previously compiled data series to fill the gaps in previous data series. They used the newly compiled series to deduce changes in the March mean temperature at Kyoto since the 14^th century. Aono and Omoto (1994) also obtained flowering data for another 223 years to fill gaps in the phenological data series compiled by earlier studies. […]

In this research paper, Aono and Kazui essentially divide their research data into two distinct time periods between 801 and 2005 (a range of 1,204 years!):

• The Historical Period (A.D. 801 – 1880); and

• The Instrumental Period (A.D. 1881 – 2005).

The Instrumental Period essentially captures modern meteorological observational data, starting all the way back to 1881. As an objective set of data (it’s hard to argue with a thermometer), portions of this data (1911 – 1940) would also be used for purposes of calibration: “phenological data from the instrumental period were calibrated using springtime temperature observations then data from the historical period were used to reconstruct climate changes.” We’ll get back to this later.

The Historical Period, however, is far more fascinating. Not only does it represent a wonderfully interdisciplinary approach, merging history with science, but this breadth of this data has also survived natural disasters, regional-scale collapses and national strife. We’ll also get back to this at the end of this article, so let’s return to the research paper to talk about some of the details on the recovered historical record:

Phenological data series of cherry tree flowering in Kyoto, Japan, and its application to reconstruction of springtime temperatures since the 9^th century.

For the historical period, we investigated old diaries and chronicles written at Kyoto to obtain phenological data on cherry tree flowering. Because Kyoto was the capital of Japan from 794 to 1868, many diaries, written by emperors, aristocrats, politicians, monks, and merchants, dating to that period have been preserved at Kyoto.

[…]

In modern times, cherry-blossom viewing parties are generally held under full-flower status. Many descriptions in the old diaries suggest that even in the historical period, cherry-blossom viewing parties were held when the cherry trees were full with flowers. […] Many records also suggested that the onset of full-flower status strongly brought about the motivates for dwellers in Kyoto immediately to hold the parties and sightseeing for the purpose of viewing cherry blossoms.

Therefore, the date, on which the event with cherry-blossom viewing was performed, seems to be considerably near the first date in full-flower status. Thus, the historical descriptions found in old documents can be used as phenological data for the full-flowering date of the cherry tree.

Of course, while one can argue over the subjectivity of such data regarding blossoming and full-flower dates, it does resolve another key problem - which species of cherry tree should be used? As the authors note, Prunus yedoensis (Soemi-Yoshino) may be the most commonly observed species studied and recorded at most Japanese meteorological stations, but it did not exist before the mid-19th century.

However, descriptions in the historical record pointed at one major contender still found across the City and on the ancient grounds of the imperial palace. It’s a native species called Prunus jamasakura (Yamazakura), and is distinctly notable for its very short full-flower period; Yamazakura usually lasts 2-4 days, Soemi-Yoshino upwards of a week or two.

The authors also continued to be very fortunate; despite a paucity of data on this particular species, they were lucky enough to find a local and reliable source to work with: newspaper advertisements by local railroad companies. Turns out that until 2005, said companies would frequently and publicly report the flowering status of cherry trees in Arashiyama, a western suburb of Kyoto famous for its Yamazakura trees. No better way to draw in tourists (and sell train tickets) than to report flowering times in the news, right?

It’s a fairly clever solution, so let’s re-cap and expand upon everything that we’ve just learned:

• The authors could now correlate the dates in which Yamazakura cherry blossoms were available for public enjoyment (railroad advertisements) alongside springtime temperatures seen each year (modern meteorological data) in the Kyoto area.  

• Using early 20th century meteorological data, the research team could now calibrate their data in such a way to minimize confounding factors (namely, missing phenological data, urbanization, and recent urban warming).

• Missing data for flowering dates in the Instrumental Period could now be inferred by this calibration. Climatic reconstruction, whether for the Instrumental Period or the Historical Period, was now possible!

• With plentiful evidence of cherry-blossom viewings over the centuries recorded in historical texts, all of these additional data points could now plotted to help “fill in the gaps” left behind by previous researchers.

• These historical data points, originally organized by the Japanese Lunar Year calendar, could then be translated over to the western Gregorian calendar.

And now, finally, I can show you all the most interesting graph presented in this research paper:

Yes, of course this graph is not as dramatic as today’s introductory meme; however, it represents the same data set, and is nonetheless important to explore for five key reasons:

First, it represents just how much work and love went into this paper. There are 732 data points present on this graph, representing over 1,200 years of climate history – 614 in the Historical Period (83.9%), and 118 in the Instrumental Period (16.1%). Full-flowering data, sadly, was only available for 60.7% of the whole research period.

Second, the data was able to capture natural phenomena of both warming and cooling periods. For example, the researchers focus in on four “cold” periods of reduced solar activity that generally coincide with the last four grand solar minimums: 1330-1350 (Wolf), 1520-1550 (Spörer), 1670-1700 (Maunder), and 1825-1830 (Dalton).

Third, it shows how this data has developed over time with the work of at least five different researchers over a period of decades. Not only does the paper compile primary historical sources, but it also dependent upon the longstanding efforts of previous researchers (secondary sources).

Fourth, and this one’s a treat, but there are notable gaps in both the Instrumental and Historical Periods. What caused them? Well, remember when I noted how remarkable it was that “this data ha[d] survived natural disasters, regional-scale collapses and national strife?” Let us return to the article once again, but this time, with my emphasis in bold:

Phenological data series of cherry tree flowering in Kyoto, Japan, and its application to reconstruction of springtime temperatures since the 9^th century.

The full-flowering dates collected from old documents and newspapers show considerable inter-annual variation (Figure 2). The data for earlier periods include large gaps, because many old records were missing as a result of natural disasters or conflagrations. Althrough phenological data were available only for 7 years in the 9^th century, the number of data points increased over time. An almost complete sequential data series was obtained from the 15^th century onward: data were available for more than 805 of the years for the period from 1401 to 2005.

However, large gaps of 3-10 years duration in the phenological data series occurred even after the 15^th century because of political and social unrest (e.g. the Ohnin Civil War, A.D. 1467 – 1477, and the Meiji Restoration, A.D. 1868). Even in the 20^th century, no phenological data were available from 1942 to 1945, the period of World War II.

In my mind, this is what makes this particular climate history stand apart from the rest. Beyond the greater trends identified within the data, not to mention the incredible temporal range available for our consideration, these “silent gaps” themselves are important data points – and moments in history. Just imagine how perilous it must have been to live in times where your society’s treasured annual traditions could no longer be upheld or enjoyed. Silence, in this case, is data left behind in the wake of historical horror.

Finally, Reason No. 5: These graphs clearly show an established trend on how the cherry blossoms in Kyoto are arriving much earlier each decade in the Anthropocene. To reiterate key conclusions from the research paper:

• The earliest flowering occurred on March 27, 1409, and the most delayed was on May 8, 1526.

• Over the entire research period (801 - 2005), the average full-flowering date was around April 15.

• By comparing the historical average versus the late 20th century (say, 1971-2000), the researchers discovered that the cherry blossoms in Kyoto were now arriving seven days faster than expected (April 8th).

• The above-mentioned data is the latest from 2005 - what about today? Using Aono’s data from last year, Kyoto’s peak cherry blossom date in 2023 was March 25th (21 days early - a new record!), with April 4th being the 20-year average (11 days early).

I imagine that there are two key contributing factors as to why the cherry blossoms fall earlier in Kyoto these days - one global, one local. Not only is there undeniable evidence that the world is warming up as a consequence of our own fossil-fueled actions over the past three centuries, but Kyoto's rapid urbanization over the 20th century has also further exacerbated the region’s urban heat island effect, leading to warmer-than-usual temperatures earlier than expected. Warmer world, warmer cities, both at the same time.

I do not like to think of climate change in terms of degrees of emergency; I find the number to be too detached, too clinical, too abstract. Entirely objective, but unimaginable. I prefer to understand climate change in terms of our collective “lived experiences”, the material changes we see in our daily lives around us no matter how dramatic or tame they may be.

Just as cherry blossoms (sakura) are associated with longstanding tradition (hanami), they are also emblematic of another concept – a bittersweet form of nostalgia known as natsukashi. Mirroring the ephemeral nature of life, the peak and fall of cherry blossoms is momentary and fleeting; a reminder to find beauty in everything that passes us by, never to be seen again.

In my mind, the ever-earlier arrival of warmer spring temperatures and the bloom of cherry blossoms represents just that: melancholy for the loss of a natural world that we have long taken for granted, and a remembrance of inescapable consequences, our warming planet, and its shifting baselines.

—

How many, many things
They call to mind
These cherry-blossoms!

—

If you enjoyed today’s piece, and if you also share my insatiable curiosity for the various interdisciplinary aspects of “collapse”, please consider taking a look at some of my other written and graphic works at my Substack Page – Myth of Progress. That said, as a proud member of this community, I will always endeavor to publish my work to r/collapse first.

My work is free, and will always be free; when it comes to educating others on the challenges of the human predicament, no amount of compensation will suffice … and if you’ve made it this far, then you have my sincere thanks.

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Myth’s Note: With Reddit’s upcoming IPO in March and an uncertain future ahead for the r/collapse community, I thought that I’d take this moment to explore the origins of my eponymous pen name. Let’s get started.

One part secular religion mixed with one part linear teleology, shaken well and poured over the rocks of industrial civilization’s philosophical foundations; it’s a popular cocktail we all know as the Myth of Progress. A promise that we are marching out of barbaric ignorance, upwards and onwards towards the Ideal Future – and don’t you fret, the best is yet to come! It is not a universal truth by any measure: it is a seductive and reductive philosophy based upon misguided reason and ignorant of historical forces, devoid of all the contexts that make us human: our conundrums, our complexities, our cruelties, and our catastrophes.

This myth is not without its longstanding detractors. Some view this rational optimism through the lens of material reality, its winners and its losers. In other words, progress for who? Let’s start with a class-based analysis, just to whet our appetite. As Malm and Hornberg note:

“After more than 200 years, we still tend to imagine “technological progress” as nothing but the magic wand of ingenuity which, without no necessary political or moral implications elsewhere, will solve our local problems of sustainability. But globalized technological systems essentially represent an unequal exchange of embodied labour and land in the world system.

[...]

We would argue that, to the contrary, an uneven distribution is a condition for the existence of modern, fossil fuel technology.”

As it goes with the endless march of societal collapses, a quote from Gibson comes to mind: the future (and past) is already here; they’re just not evenly distributed, and they never will be.

In truth, there is a much more important and rich source of dissent: the perspectives of historians, but especially those who study collapse. Best described in a paraphrased quote by Steffen et al. in an article I intend to cover soon, proponents of Progress have long disregarded some essential truths about the Past: that “... human history [is actually] marked by crises, regime shifts, disasters and constantly changing patterns of adjustments to limits and confines. Indeed, this now emerges as a new historical meta-narrative …”

Without further ado, and for the remainder of this thread, I wanted to talk about that fundamental “creation myth”, which simultaneously represents the cultural foundations of both global industrial civilization and contemporary collapse studies.

And so, I really do hope you enjoy this exploration of the literature and what the Myth of Progress has long represented to me with this little trip back in time to the 2000s, when I first and truly became “collapse-aware”. For citations, today's sources include:

Today’s meme, which is drawn from:

• an image titled: “Business as usual, full steam ahead!”, /u/chao_chucao; and

• an excerpt from Five Facets of a Myth, Kirkpatrick Sale;

And today’s literary synthesis of book quotes transcribed and provided below, primarily focused on quotes from:

• The Long Descent: A User’s Guide to the End of the Industrial Era, John M. Greer; and

• A Short History of Progress, Ronald Wright

Just keep one question in mind, as food for thought and as a “starting” point for discussion: What should progress mean for a civilization, and what should its ideal form look like in the future?

The Long Descent, John M. Greer (2008)

According to this story, all of human history is a grand tale of human improvement. From the primitive ignorance and savagery of our cave-dwelling ancestors, according to this myth, people climbed step by step up the ladder of progress, following in the wake of the evolutionary drive that raised us up from primeval slime and brought us to the threshold of human intelligence. Ever since our ancestors first became fully human, knowledge gathered over the generations made it possible for each culture to go further, become wiser, and accomplish more than the ones that came before it. With the coming of the Scientific Revolution three hundred years ago, the slow triumph of reason over nature shifted into overdrive and has been accelerating ever since. Eventually, once the last vestiges of primitive superstition and ignorance are cast aside, our species will leap upward from the surface of its home planet and embrace its destiny among the stars.

A Short History of Progress, Ronald Wright (2004)

Despite certain events of the twentieth century, most people in the Western cultural tradition still believe in the Victorian ideal of progress, a belief succinctly defined by the historian Sidney Pollard in 1968 as “the assumption that a pattern of change exists in the history of mankind … that it consists of irreversible changes in one direction only, and that this direction is towards improvement.” The very appearance on earth of creatures who can frame such a thought suggests that progress is a law of nature: the mammal is swifter than the reptile, the ape subtler than the ox, and man the cleverest of all. Our technological culture measures human progress by technology: the club is better than the fist, the arrow better than the club, the bullet better than the arrow. We came to this belief for empirical reasons: because it delivered.

The Long Descent, John M. Greer (2008)

Nor is the past quite so much of a linear story of progress as the folklore of the industrial age would have it. Look back over the millennia that came before the start of the industrial age, straight back to the emergence of agriculture, and one of the most striking things you’ll notice is how little human life changed over that time. [...] Tools gradually changed from stone to bronze to iron, and their shapes evolved with changes in technique, but the requirements of the agricultural cycle and the limited energy available from wind, water, biomass, and muscle imposed a common framework on human societies.

While plenty of new technologies emerged over the millennia, the process of technological change was not a one-way street; many technologies invented in periods of high innovation in the past were lost in later periods of regression. [...] Before the harnessing of fossil fuels, technological advances were vulnerable to loss because they had only the most limited place in everyday life; without cheap, abundant energy to power them, it was more efficient and economical for pre-modern societies to rely on human labor with hand tools for nearly all their economic activities.

A Short History of Progress, Ronald Wright (2004)

Pollard notes that the idea of material progress is a very recent one — “significant only in the past three hundred years or so” — coinciding closely with the rise of science and industry and the corresponding decline of traditional beliefs. We no longer give much thought to moral progress — a prime concern of earlier times — except to assume that it goes hand in hand with the material. Civilized people, we tend to think, not only smell better but behave better than barbarians or savages. This notion has trouble standing up in the court of history, and I shall return to it in the next chapter when considering what is meant by “civilization.”

The Long Descent, John M. Greer (2008)

This stable pattern changed only when the first steam engines allowed people to begin tapping the fantastic amounts of energy hidden away within the Earth. The torrent of nearly free energy that followed those first discoveries played the crucial role in bringing the industrial world into being. For thousands of years before that time, everything else necessary for an industrial society had been part of the cultural heritage of most civilizations. Renewable energy sources? Wind power, water power, biomass, and muscle power were all used extensively in the preindustrial past without launching an industrial society. Scientific knowledge? The laws of mechanics were worked out in ancient times, and a Greek scientist even invented the steam turbine two centuries before the birth of Christ; without fossil fuels it was a useless curiosity. Human resourcefulness and ingenuity? It’s as arrogant as it is silly to insist that people in past ages weren’t as resourceful and ingenious as we are.

A Short History of Progress, Ronald Wright (2004)

Our practical faith in progress has ramified and hardened into an ideology — a secular religion which, like the religions that progress has challenged, is blind to certain flaws in its credentials. Progress, therefore, has become “myth” in the anthropological sense. By this I do not mean a belief that is flimsy or untrue. Successful myths are powerful and often partly true. As I’ve written elsewhere: “Myth is an arrangement of the past, whether real or imagined, in patterns that reinforce a culture’s deepest values and aspirations…. Myths are so fraught with meaning that we live and die by them. They are the maps by which cultures navigate through time.”

The Long Descent, John M. Greer (2008)

The faith in progress, for example, rests on the unstated assumption that limits don’t apply to us because the forward momentum of human progress automatically trumps everything else. If we want limitless supplies of energy badly enough, the logic seems to be, the world will give it to us. Of course the world did give it to us — in the form of unimaginably huge deposits of fossil fuels storing hundreds of millions of years’ worth of photosynthesis — and we wasted it in a few centuries of fantastic extravagance. The lifestyles we’ve grown up treating as normal are entirely the products of that extravagance. This puts us in the position of a lottery winner who’s spent millions of dollars in a few short years and is running out of money. The odds of hitting another million-dollar–jackpot are minute, and no amount of wishful thinking will enable us to keep up our current lifestyle by getting a job at the local hamburger stand.

A Short History of Progress, Ronald Wright (2004)

The myth of progress has sometimes served us well — those of us seated at the best tables, anyway — and may continue to do so. But I shall argue [...] that it has also become dangerous. Progress has an internal logic that can lead beyond reason to catastrophe. A seductive trail of successes may end in a trap.

—

If you enjoyed today’s piece, and if you also share my insatiable curiosity for the various interdisciplinary aspects of “collapse”, please consider taking a look at some of other written and graphic works at my Substack Page – Myth of Progress. That said, as a proud member of this community, I will always endeavour to publish my work to r/collapse first.

My work is free, and will always be free; when it comes to educating others on the challenges of the human predicament, no amount of compensation will suffice... and if you've made it this far, then you have my sincere thanks.

Sometimes, you just want to be a little lazy, overly dramatic, and downright flippant with some tasteless clickbait, right down to the news headlines.

While I’ve been a bit busy as of late with life and other trivial matters, I'd also like to take this moment to formally smash a champagne bottle across the bow of this doomed vessel. It’s a tradition that I try to uphold – ‘tis the season, after all. Here’s my take on last year’s COP advertisement.

As someone who always likes to cite their sources, here’s the scoop:

• Reuters – Global fossil fuel production plans far exceed climate targets, U.N. says

• BBC – UAE planned to use COP28 climate talks to make oil deals

• The Guardian – Plans to present meat as ‘sustainable nutrition’ at Cop28 revealed

And finally, here's a clean version of the COPE LOL image.

Here’s to a brand new COPE, everyone! Let's see how this one goes down.