My Weekly Stock

Trading Update: +61% Year-to-Date. My Picks for Next Week Inside

Sun, 30 Aug 2026 08:01:45 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock.

A new week is around the corner, which means one thing for me: preparing my trading plan.

Each week, my algo selects 3 momentum picks to trade from Monday open till Friday close.

The result? 1,146% return since 2019, or 34% average annual return and outperforming the S&P 500 by 5×.

Want these picks delivered straight to your inbox, plus my entry/exit rules and my complete framework? Upgrade your subscription and get full access.

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`SUMMARY`

Here are the top highlights for my weekly momentum strategy:

Last week: +0.4%. 2 winning picks out of 3.
2026 YTD: +61% | Since 2019: +1,146%, 34% CAGR. 58% Hit rate.
Week ahead: 3 longs, 1 Dow30, 1 Large Cap, 1 Nasdaq100.

📌 Trading week reflections:

One pick stopped out, one delivered a solid win, and one volatile pick ended up flat. Some weeks have little impact on your portfolio, but they can still be important. I wasn’t expecting an easy week after a long winning streak and with market price action turning sideways. Those are typically the kind of momentum conditions where my algo doesn’t perform particularly well. So while my 0.4% weekly gain could have been much better, and was at one point during the week, I’m grateful to have navigated the past 2 weeks’ market consolidation successfully so far.

Next week could bring more of the same until the market has a clear short-term direction. But my plan remains unchanged: enter my three picks at Monday’s open without chasing, respect my position sizing, and execute my stop losses. That’s how I’ve navigated different market regimes since 2019.

1. My Strategy

After years of research, I’ve developed a winning momentum strategy that cuts through market noise. If you’re new here or want a deeper dive into my strategy, check out my detailed post below:

I use a proprietary algorithm to evaluate momentum for every stock on my watchlist, analyzing key indicators like 1-month and 3-month returns, performance relative to 52-week highs and lows, and trend strength. I then scored and ranked my watchlist from highest to lowest. I apply my algorithm weekly across 3 different watchlists: the Dow Jones 30, US mega-caps ($150B+ market cap), and the Nasdaq 100.

From there, I overlay my assessment of market momentum conditions to finalize my trading plan: selecting the top- or bottom-ranked stocks, deciding whether to go long or short, and setting the stop-loss rules.

Since these picks are often well into their up (or down) trends, I use tight stop-losses to manage risk as reversals can be swift.

The end result? 3 momentum picks per week I hold from Monday open to Friday close. Rule-based, no second-guessing.

2. Performance Update

Since 2019, my momentum picks have delivered a cumulative return of +1,146% (with stop-loss rules applied), roughly 5× the S&P 500 over the same period. That translates into a 34% CAGR.

At the weekly level, the strategy has a 58% hit rate. The maximum drawdown is -19%, and the worst rolling 12-week return is -15%.

Last week, I traded 3 longs

Dow 30 – AMGN: +0.4%
Large Cap – QCOM: +3.0%
Nasdaq – ABNB: +0.2%

The average return for the week was +0.4%, bringing my 2026 performance to +61%.

A kind week that could have been much better or much worse. But I typically don’t fare particularly well during sideways market action, so I’m gladly taking the small win.

From 2019 through 2024, the strategy was based solely on one pick from the Dow 30 index. In 2025, I expanded to include a pick from Large Caps, and in January 2026, one from the Nasdaq 100 index.

While I have backtested results since 2022 for the additional watchlists, I only include live, publicly published picks in the official performance record.

Returns are calculated from Monday’s market open to Friday’s close, unless a stop-loss is triggered. Performance is compounded weekly.

Paid subscribers have access to all the details behind the picks.

3. My Picks for the Week Ahead

Weekly Market Recap (Aug 24-28): The S&P 500 Remains Range-Bound. Is a Bigger Move Brewing?

Fri, 28 Aug 2026 20:58:59 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where momentum meets discipline. My mission is to arm you with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.

Every Friday, I recap the U.S. market through a momentum lens to help you see what’s working and what’s not.

Want to go deeper? Paid subscribers get access to the full momentum framework behind my 30% average annual return since 2019: weekly picks, proprietary tools, and monthly market deep dives.

Subscribe now

`SUMMARY`

Here are this week's highlights and what to look out for next:

1. Performance Recap: a winning week across the equity markets: S&P 500 (0.5%), Nasdaq (0.9%), Dow Jones (0.5%). Sector leaders: Communication Serv. (+1.4%) and Technology (+1.3%).
2. Momentum Pulse Check: S&P 500’s long-term trend is strong and the short-term momentum is mixed. Next resistance: 7,815; support: 7,630.
3. Earnings Update: 483 S&P 500 companies reported Q2 2026 earnings with 86% topping estimates. Q2 earnings growth: +53%, full-year 2026 outlook: +34%.
4. Sentiment Check: CNN Fear & Greed at 54/100 (Neutral); VIX was down 5% to 14.4.
5. Next week’s agenda: Earnings from Broadcom. Aug Job report.

📌 My Take:

The S&P 500 managed a small gain this week but once again struggled to make meaningful progress. Leadership remained thin, with fewer than half of stocks advancing and just 3 of 11 sectors finishing higher, while the index remained trapped in its two-week trading range.

Zooming out, the longer-term picture remains healthy, so there is little reason to turn bearish just yet. But short-term momentum remains mixed, and the combination of low volatility, neutral sentiment, and sideways price action suggests a strong directional move may be approaching.

Next week’s August jobs report could provide the catalyst, while Broadcom’s earnings will offer another important read on AI demand. For now, 7,630 and 7,815 remain the key boundaries I watch.

`PERFORMANCE RECAP`

1. S&P 500 Sector Breakdown

This week: 3 of the 11 sectors advanced. Communication Serv. (1.4%) was the best performer, while Health Care (-2%) was the weakest.

Year-to-date: 9 sectors are positive. Energy (40.2 %) is the leader, while Communication Serv. (-4%) is the laggard.

2. S&P 500 Movers: Top & Worst Performers

Over the last five trading days, 43% of S&P 500 stocks closed higher.

Top Performers:

$CRM (Salesforce, Inc.): 22.4%
$CRWD (CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.): 13.8%
$NOW (ServiceNow, Inc.): 12.6%
$VEEV (Veeva Systems Inc.): 11.6%
$SNPS (Synopsys, Inc.): 11.2%

Worst Performers:

$MRVL (Marvell Technology, Inc.): -8.6%
$CASY (Caseys General Stores, Inc.): -9.6%
$HRL (Hormel Foods Corporation): -9.7%
$GNRC (Generac Holdings Inc.): -10.8%
$PYPL (PayPal Holdings, Inc.): -12.8%

3. S&P 500 Movers: New 1-Year Highs & Lows

This week, 36 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 13 stocks fell to new lows.. Healthcare stood out, contributing 15 of this week’s new highs.

Notable new 52-week highs:

$V (Visa Inc.)
$KO (Coca-Cola Company (The))
$MRK (Merck & Company, Inc.)
$AMGN (Amgen Inc.)
$CRWD (CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.)

Notable new 52-week lows:

$MCD (McDonald’s Corporation)
$TJX (TJX Companies, Inc. (The))
$APP (Applovin Corporation)
$NKE (Nike, Inc.)
$LHX (L3Harris Technologies, Inc.)

📌 My take:
A small gain for the index, but leadership remained thin, with only 42% of stocks advancing and just 3 of 11 sectors finishing higher. There was also little progress in breaking out of the two-week trading range.

`MOMENTUM PULSE CHECK`

1. S&P 500 Pulse Check

(1) Performance: positive short-term performance, and trading at short distance form 1-year high.

1-month performance: +3.7%
3-month performance: +1.7%
Distance from 52-week high: -1.1%

(2) Breadth: positive long-term breadth reading but mixed on the short-term

Breadth measures how many stocks are joining the move. Extreme readings (>80% or <20%) often signal overbought/oversold conditions and serve as early warning signs of a trend reversal.

% of stocks above 200-day moving average: 69% (stable last week)
% of stocks above 20-day moving average: 42% (down from 50% last week)

(3) Trends: strong long-term uptrend but mixed on shorter timeframe.

I analyze trend strength using exponential moving averages (EMAs) and score them on a 1-5 scale. A score of 3+ indicates a healthy trend worth riding.

Weekly chart (long-term/position):

Strong Uptrend ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐, Status: Stable

Daily chart (mid-term/swing trade):

Sideways ⭐⭐⭐☆☆, Status: Stable

4) Key levels:

Critical price zones that either confirm the current trend or warn of a potential reversal.

Support (downside zones to watch)

7,310 (-5.2%)
7500 (-2.7%)
7,630 (-1.1%)

Resistance (upside hurdles)

7,815 (+1.3%)
8,000 (+3.7%)

📌 My take:
The momentum picture remains largely stable week over week, as the index continues to trade sideways. But zooming out to the longer-term time frame still shows a very healthy uptrend.

2. Momentum Deep Dive of the Week

Each week, I select a specific theme and run the entire framework to pinpoint where the momentum lies.

This week, the theme is the Market Segments. August has been very active across market segments. The month started with equities breaking out to new highs following the frustrating June-July consolidation. While they took a breather in the second half of August to digest that rally, Metals and Bitcoin have taken the mantle, attempting a dramatic trend reversal after months stuck in downtrends.

3. Stock Analysis of the Week

I selected a name with recently reported earnings and ran it through the full Momentum Pulse Check to assess the implications for long-term positions. This week: Walmart ($WMT).

My View → PASS

Walmart’s last two earnings reports have caused meaningful technical damage. The May report triggered an 8% decline, while this month’s report led to another 10% loss. In between, bounce attempts have been short-lived, and the stock has mostly drifted lower.
Every trend signal is now flashing red, with price trading below both the falling 9-week and 30-week EMAs. At this stage, there is very little to grab onto technically.
The one nuance is that the move is now extended to the downside, so a short-term bounce or consolidation is entirely normal from here. But extended does not mean bottomed. Until momentum shows a meaningful improvement, the path of least resistance remains lower.

The full breakdown (trend score, key levels, and implications) is available in this Substack Note.

This analysis is built using my Momentum Pulse Check, a tool I use to assess trend and momentum across markets.
Paid subscribers can access the tool to explore the same signals and context in real time.

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`ECONOMIC & EARNINGS REPORTS`

1. Economic Reports

Last week’s main focus in the economic agenda was inflation and growth. The latest PCE report showed inflation holding steady but still well above the Fed’s 2% target, while the Q2 GDP reading confirmed a meaningful slowdown in economic growth.

Key data:

Core PCE Price Index (MoM): 0.2% vs. 0.2% expected
Core PCE Price Index (YoY): 3.3% vs. 3.3% expected
GDP (QoQ, Q2): 1.5% vs. 1.5% expected
Durable Goods Orders (MoM): 1.1% vs. 0.4% expected
Initial Jobless Claims: 203K vs. 208K expected

2. Earnings Outlook

Q2 2026 Earnings: S&P 500 earnings expected to grow +53% year-over-year (+49% when excluding Energy).
2026 Full-Year Outlook: Consensus forecasts +34% growth, largely above the 10-year average of +9 %.
Analyst Revisions: 70% of all revisions in the past month have been upward.
Valuation: Forward 4-quarter P/E ratio stands at 20.4, above both the 5-year and 10-year historical averages.

3. Earnings Season Recap

Out of the 483 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 2026 earnings, 86% exceeded EPS expectations, above the four-quarter average of 80% and above the historical average of 67%.

Below are some notable companies that reported last week, along with their EPS/revenue performance vs. estimates and weekly stock returns.

One highlight this week: Salesforce ($CRM). Shares surged after the company delivered a strong quarter and raised its full-year revenue and profit outlook, helped by accelerating adoption of its AI products, including Agentforce and Data 360. The stock gained 22% this week.

📌 My take:
The main event of the week was Nvidia’s earnings, with the strong report helping lift the market on Thursday before paring some of those gains on Friday. It was enough for the index to close the week positive, but not enough to fully break out of the recent trading range.

MARKET SENTIMENT

Sentiment indicators offer a window into the views of professional and retail traders. While not predictive on their own, they complement technical and fundamental analysis, helping to assess the market’s predominant sentiment.

1. VIX (Volatility Index)

The VIX, or volatility index, measures expected volatility over the next 30 days using option prices. It is often called the “fear gauge” because it rises during uncertain times, when investors anticipate larger swings.

Current reading: 14.4, a low value, and down 5% from last Friday.

2. CNN Fear & Greed Index

This index combines seven market indicators to score investor sentiment from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed).

Current reading is 54 (Neutral), stable from 54 a week ago.

3. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator

The Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator is a contrarian tool that tracks global investor sentiment and market positioning. The indicator combines six factors, including positioning, fund flows, and various liquidity and risk metrics.

The scoring system was updated in December 2025 and ranges from 0 (extreme fear, buy signal) to 10 (extreme greed, sell signal), with >8.0 as “sell” territory and <2.0 as “buy.” I see this as a longer-term indicator.

Current reading: 9.7 an extreme bullish signal, and typically a contrarian “sell” signal.

📌 My take:
Low volatility, neutral short-term sentiment reading, and sideways price action all point to the potential for a strong directional move soon.

`THE WEEK AHEAD`

1. Economic Calendar

A packed economic calendar is on deck, with the main focus firmly on Friday’s August jobs report. After sharp weakness in July payrolls, markets will watch closely to see whether the labor market can stabilize.

Key data:

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 53.2 expected vs. 53.2 previous
ISM Manufacturing PMI: 55.3 expected vs. 55.6 previous
S&P Global Services PMI: 56.8 expected vs. 56.8 previous
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): 0.2% expected vs. 0.1% previous
Nonfarm Payrolls: 45K expected vs. -23K previous
Unemployment Rate: 4.2% expected vs. 4.1% previous

2. Earnings Calendar

The earnings season continues next week, with 9 S&P 500 companies set to report their quarterly results.

3. Earnings Watchlist

Below are notable stocks reporting earnings next week, along with my Momentum Pulse Check snapshot and implied volatility for the upcoming week.

In particular, I will keep a close eye on Broadcom ($AVGO), with its earnings likely to offer another useful read on the strength of AI demand and hyperscaler spending. The options market is currently pricing in a move of roughly ±8.1% next week.

📌 My take:
The week ahead will culminate with the August jobs report on Friday, a key release after last month's dire report. And although earnings season is almost over, we'll still have some interesting Tech reports to watch, with Broadcom in the spotlight.

`COMMUNITY SPOTLIGHT`

Each week, I highlight another Substack publication that offers valuable insights, fresh perspectives, or a helpful approach. This week, I’m pleased to feature

LOGIC Macro Regime simplifies institutional macro research into an actionable positioning strategy designed to improve risk-adjusted returns. Its LOGIC Framework assesses macro cycles through the confluence of five key forces:

L - Liquidity Cycle
O - Other Financial Conditions
G - Growth Cycle
I - Inflation Cycle
C - Capital Positioning

Here is one of his recent post:

LOGIC Macro Regime

Monthly Macro Map 🧭 🌊 - August 2026

Ahoy…

11 days ago · 15 likes · LOGIC Macro Regime

CONCLUSION

That’s a wrap for this recap! I spend hours every week structuring this recap so you can quickly find the insights you need, week after week.

You enjoyed this recap and want the actionable side? Paid subscribers get access to my weekly Momentum Picks, with more than 1,000% return since 2019, or 30% per year.

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Happy investing,

My Weekly Stock,

DISCLAIMER

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Any investments or decisions made based on the information provided in this newsletter are the reader's sole responsibility. I strongly recommend that readers conduct their own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. I do not assume any responsibility for any losses or damages arising from using the information provided in this newsletter.

Momentum Pulse Check: Which Segment Has The Best Trend? (Sep 2026 Edition)

Wed, 26 Aug 2026 08:01:21 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock.

Once a month, I step back from weekly trades to assess the bigger picture: where momentum is strengthening, where it’s fading, and what that means for the weeks ahead.

This is my Momentum Deep Dive, powered by my proprietary Momentum Pulse Check tool. I use it to monitor trends and market regimes across key segments, sectors, and individual stocks.

Paid subscribers have full access to my app and can run any top US stock or ETF through it directly.

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Summary

This month’s deep dive covers two things: the broader momentum landscape across key market segments, and an update on my Macro ETF Portfolio:

Momentum Snapshot
Equities: Strong uptrend across the board, although momentum is slowing down for Nasdaq.
Commodities: Oil in uptrend but volatile. Precious metals back in uptrend.
Crypto: Bitcoin and Ethereum attempting a bounce but requiring more confirmation
Treasuries: in downtrend.
US Dollar: sideways.
Macro ETF Portfolio
99% invested across 15 positions. Last month: 2 new positions.
Cumulative return: +46% since October 2023
Top performers: Semiconductors ETF ($SMH, +117%) and Emerging Markets ETF ($EEM, +48%).

📌 My Take:

August has been very active across market segments. The month started with equities breaking out to new highs following the frustrating June-July consolidation. While they took a breather in the second half of August to digest that rally, Metals and Bitcoin have taken the mantle, attempting a dramatic trend reversal after months stuck in downtrends.

This is a move I have been waiting for for some time, and I have started increasing my exposure to that space. I will likely continue doing so in the coming weeks, assuming this latest move doesn’t turn into another failed breakout attempt.

How this analysis is built

This deep dive is based on a simple, consistent framework. I use weekly charts and exponential moving averages to assess both the strength and quality of trends. From there, I overlay an analysis of key price levels to identify potential areas of support, resistance, or friction ahead.

This combination gives me a holistic view of each segment: not just where price has been, but how healthy the trend is and where it may face pressure.

This framework is designed to do one thing well: separate clean, tradable momentum from noise.

It doesn’t predict markets or aim to catch exact tops or bottoms. Instead, it helps identify where trends are working, where they’re weakening, and where caution is warranted.

Momentum Pulse Check

$SPY - S&P 500 ETF

Momentum Score: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ | Strong Uptrend - Outlook: Stable

Key Levels

Support: $758
Resistance: $780

📌 My Rating: HOLD
SPY broke out of its frustrating June-July consolidation to reach new record highs. While momentum has slowed somewhat in the second half of August, the overall trend and price action remain largely healthy. For me, this remains a clear HOLD.

$QQQ - Nasdaq ETF

Momentum Score: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ | Strong Uptrend - Outlook: Stable

Key Levels

Support: $685
Resistance: $750

📌 My Rating: HOLD
The Tech-heavy QQQ also bounced to start August, but the move has been less powerful and failed to push the index to new all-time highs. While the broader trend remains strong, there is no denying that momentum has slowed, with recent price action clearly lagging SPY.

Want the full picture?
Paid subscribers get access to the complete momentum breakdown across all 10 segments, plus my Macro ETF portfolio to see how this analysis translates into actual portfolio decisions.

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$IWM - Russell 2000 ETF (Small Caps)

Momentum Score: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ | Strong Uptrend - Outlook: Stable

Key Levels

Support: $290
Resistance: $305

📌 My Rating: HOLD
Somewhat similar to SPY, with a strong breakout to new highs following the June-July consolidation. Price action has since turned sideways again, but my still think this is likely another healthy consolidation setting up the next leg higher.

Trading Update: +60% Year-to-Date. My Picks for Next Week Inside

Sun, 23 Aug 2026 08:01:39 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock.

A new week is around the corner, which means one thing for me: preparing my trading plan.

Each week, my algo selects 3 momentum picks to trade from Monday open till Friday close.

The result? 1,141% return since 2019, or 34% average annual return and outperforming the S&P 500 by 5×.

Want these picks delivered straight to your inbox, plus my entry/exit rules and my complete framework? Upgrade your subscription and get full access.

Subscribe now

`SUMMARY`

Here are the top highlights for my weekly momentum strategy:

Last week: +5.7%. 3 winning picks out of 3.
2026 YTD: +60% | Since 2019: +1,141%, 34% CAGR. 58% Hit rate.
Week ahead: 3 longs, 1 Dow30, 1 Large Cap, 1 Nasdaq100.

📌 Trading week reflections:

A 5.7% gain last week despite the market pulling back, with 3 winning picks out of 3 and a 4th consecutive winning week. One pick even hit my profit target by Tuesday’s open. Hard to ask for much more than that.

But I’m not getting complacent. The sour memory of my June-July rough patch is still too vivid. With short-term market momentum cooling and a big week of Tech earnings ahead, this is certainly not the time to get greedy.

For me, it remains simple: follow my system, stick to my predetermined rules, and tune out the noise. That’s how I navigate both losing and winning streaks while continuing to execute exactly as intended.

1. My Strategy

After years of research, I’ve developed a winning momentum strategy that cuts through market noise. If you’re new here or want a deeper dive into my strategy, check out my detailed post below:

Since these picks are often well into their up (or down) trends, I use tight stop-losses to manage risk as reversals can be swift.

The end result? 3 momentum picks per week I hold from Monday open to Friday close. Rule-based, no second-guessing.

2. Performance Update

Since 2019, my momentum picks have delivered a cumulative return of +1,141% (with stop-loss rules applied), roughly 5× the S&P 500 over the same period. That translates into a 34% CAGR.

At the weekly level, the strategy has a 58% hit rate. The maximum drawdown is -19%, and the worst rolling 12-week return is -15%.

Last week, I traded 3 longs

Dow 30 – MRK: +8.9%
Large Cap – TSLA: +6.5%
Nasdaq – ABNB: +1.8%

The average return for the week was +5.7%, bringing my 2026 performance to +60%.

A perfect week, with 3 winning picks out of 3 and a 4th consecutive weekly win. $MRK was the standout, gapping above my profit target by Tuesday’s open. Hard to ask for much more than that.

From 2019 through 2024, the strategy was based solely on one pick from the Dow 30 index. In 2025, I expanded to include a pick from Large Caps, and in January 2026, one from the Nasdaq 100 index.

While I have backtested results since 2022 for the additional watchlists, I only include live, publicly published picks in the official performance record.

Returns are calculated from Monday’s market open to Friday’s close, unless a stop-loss is triggered. Performance is compounded weekly.

Paid subscribers have access to all the details behind the picks.

3. My Picks for the Week Ahead

Weekly Market Recap (Aug 17-21): Summer Rally Takes a Breather. Will Nvidia Earnings Fuel the Next Move?

Fri, 21 Aug 2026 20:36:12 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where momentum meets discipline. My mission is to arm you with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.

Every Friday, I recap the U.S. market through a momentum lens to help you see what’s working and what’s not.

Want to go deeper? Paid subscribers get access to the full momentum framework behind my 30% average annual return since 2019: weekly picks, proprietary tools, and monthly market deep dives.

Subscribe now

`SUMMARY`

Here are this week's highlights and what to look out for next:

1. Performance Recap: a red week across the equity markets: S&P 500 (-1.4%), Nasdaq (-2.1%), Dow Jones (-0.9%). Sector leaders: Health Care (+4.3%) and Energy (+2.8%).
2. Momentum Pulse Check: S&P 500’s long-term trend is strong and the short-term momentum is mixed. Next resistance: 7,815; support: 7,630.
3. Earnings Update: 465 S&P 500 companies reported Q2 2026 earnings with 85% topping estimates. Q2 earnings growth: +52%, full-year 2026 outlook: +34%.
4. Sentiment Check: CNN Fear & Greed at 56/100 (Greed); VIX was up 6% to 15.2.
5. Next week’s agenda: Earnings from Nvidia and Salesforce. PCE inflation report and GDP data.

📌 My Take:

Despite a green day on Friday, markets closed the week lower as the major indices continued to digest their summer rally gains. This looks like typical sideways action following a strong run and, so far, a healthy consolidation that could set the stage for the next leg higher. How deep or long the pullback will be is always a question mark, but for now, I see no reason for concern and maintain a positive short-term bias.

A packed week lies ahead, with inflation and GDP data alongside a slate of key Tech earnings across AI, semiconductors, and software, with all eyes obviously on Nvidia. Wednesday’s post-market session will see several tech reports, which could drive elevated volatility in the days leading up to those releases.

`PERFORMANCE RECAP`

1. S&P 500 Sector Breakdown

This week: 3 of the 11 sectors advanced. Health Care (4.3%) was the best performer, while Technology (-3.5%) was the weakest.

Year-to-date: 9 sectors are positive. Energy (42.3 %) is the leader, while Communication Serv. (-5.4%) is the laggard.

2. S&P 500 Movers: Top & Worst Performers

Over the last five trading days, 40% of S&P 500 stocks closed higher.

Top Performers:

$MRNA (Moderna, Inc.): 129.2%
$COIN (Coinbase Global, Inc.): 25.6%
$EL (Estee Lauder Companies, Inc. (The)): 18.4%
$FCX (Freeport-McMoRan, Inc.): 15.3%
$HOOD (Robinhood Markets, Inc.): 13.2%

Worst Performers:

$INTC (Intel Corporation): -12.1%
$FLEX (Flex Ltd.): -12.5%
$STX (Seagate Technology Holdings PLC): -12.7%
$JBL (Jabil Inc.): -13.7%
$RDDT (Reddit, Inc.): -13.9%

3. S&P 500 Movers: New 1-Year Highs & Lows

This week, 46 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 7 stocks fell to new lows. Healthcare stood out, contributing 15 of this week’s new highs.

Notable new 52-week highs:

$LLY (Eli Lilly and Company)
$JNJ (Johnson & Johnson)
$BAC (Bank of America Corporation)
$KO (Coca-Cola Company (The))
$MRK (Merck & Company, Inc.)

Notable new 52-week lows:

$CRH (CRH PLC)
$NKE (Nike, Inc.)
$MLM (Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.)
$ZTS (Zoetis Inc.)
$VICI (VICI Properties Inc.)

📌 My take:
The summer rally may be taking a breather, but 1-year highs still outnumbered lows this week. It’s also encouraging to see strength beyond the usual Tech/AI leaders, with sectors like Healthcare posting strong gains.

`MOMENTUM PULSE CHECK`

1. S&P 500 Pulse Check

(1) Performance: positive short-term performance, and trading at short distance form 1-year high.

1-month performance: +3.7%
3-month performance: +3.1%
Distance from 52-week high: -1.6%

(2) Breadth: mix-to-positive breadth reading.

Breadth measures how many stocks are joining the move. Extreme readings (>80% or <20%) often signal overbought/oversold conditions and serve as early warning signs of a trend reversal.

% of stocks above 200-day moving average: 69% (down from 72 last week)
% of stocks above 20-day moving average: 50% (down from 66% last week)

(3) Trends: strong long-term uptrend but mixed on shorter timeframe.

I analyze trend strength using exponential moving averages (EMAs) and score them on a 1-5 scale. A score of 3+ indicates a healthy trend worth riding.

Weekly chart (long-term/position):

Strong Uptrend ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐, Status: Stable

Daily chart (mid-term/swing trade):

Sideways ⭐⭐⭐☆☆, Status: Stable

4) Key levels:

Critical price zones that either confirm the current trend or warn of a potential reversal.

Support (downside zones to watch)

7,310 (-5.0%)
7500 (-2.5%)
7,630 (-0.8%)

Resistance (upside hurdles)

7,815 (+1.6%)
8,000 (+4.0%)

📌 My take:
Short-term momentum is taking a breather, but the long-term trend remains firmly positive. For now, I view this as healthy sideways action to digest the recent gains and potentially set the stage for the next leg higher.

2. Momentum Deep Dive of the Week

Each week, I select a specific theme and run the entire framework to pinpoint where the momentum lies.

This week, the theme is the S&P500 Sectors. Constructive momentum picture across the S&P 500 sectors, with 7 out of 11 sectors in uptrends based on their weekly chart. Healthcare is the standout, with almost 20% gains in the past 3 months and trading at its 1-year high. On the other end of the spectrum, Utilities remains stuck in a downtrend, but selling pressure has stabilized.

EMA 30\n\n✅ Both EMAs rising\n\n= Strong trend\n\nHere’s what my momentum model shows:\n\n1) Uptrend:\n\n\n\n\n\nEnergy ($XLE): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nFinancials ($XLF): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nHealthcare ($XLV): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nMaterials ($XLB): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nIndustrials ($XLI): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nTechnology ($XLK): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nReal Estate ($XLRE): ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆\n\n2) Sideways:\n\n\n\n\n\nConsumer Defensive ($XLP): ⭐⭐⭐☆☆\n\n\n\nConsumer Cyclicals ($XLY): ⭐⭐☆☆☆\n\n\n\nCommunication Services ($XLC): ⭐⭐☆☆☆\n\n3) Downtrend:\n\n\n\n\n\nUtilities ($XLU): ⭐☆☆☆☆\n\nIn short: Constructive momentum picture across the S&P 500 sectors, with 7 out of 11 sectors in uptrends based on their weekly chart. Healthcare is the standout, with almost 20% gains in the past 3 months and trading at its 1-year high. On the other end of the spectrum, Utilities remains stuck in a downtrend, but selling pressure has stabilized.\n\nWhat is your favorite Sector at the moment?","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Momentum Pulse Check: Which Sector Has the Best Trend?","type":"text"}]},{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"I evaluated the trend strength of"},{"type":"text","text":" the 11 S&P500 sectors,","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"text":" using my proprietary \"","type":"text"},{"text":"Momentum Pulse Check\"","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"type":"text","text":", which scores trends based on the 9- and 30-week EMAs (out of 5 stars):"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"✅ Price above both EMAs"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"✅ EMA 9 > EMA 30"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"✅ Both EMAs rising"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"= Strong trend","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}],"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text","text":"Here’s what my momentum model shows:"}]},{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"1) Uptrend:","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}],"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Energy ($XLE): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐","type":"text"}]}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Financials ($XLF): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Healthcare ($XLV): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐","type":"text"}]}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Materials ($XLB): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Industrials ($XLI): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐","type":"text"}]}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Technology ($XLK): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Real Estate ($XLRE): ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆","type":"text"}]}],"type":"listItem"}]},{"content":[{"marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text","text":"2) Sideways:"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"content":[{"text":"Consumer Defensive ($XLP): ⭐⭐⭐☆☆","type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Consumer Cyclicals ($XLY): ⭐⭐☆☆☆"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Communication Services ($XLC): ⭐⭐☆☆☆"}]}]}],"type":"bulletList"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"3) Downtrend:","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Utilities ($XLU): ⭐☆☆☆☆"}]}]}],"type":"bulletList"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"In short: ","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"type":"text","text":"Constructive momentum picture across the S&P 500 sectors, with 7 out of 11 sectors in uptrends based on their weekly chart. Healthcare is the standout, with almost 20% gains in the past 3 months and trading at its 1-year high. On the other end of the spectrum, Utilities remains stuck in a downtrend, but selling pressure has stabilized."}]},{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"What is your favorite Sector at the moment?","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}],"type":"paragraph"}]},"restacks":4,"reaction_count":44,"children_count":2,"attachments":[{"id":"1f4fe49f-2329-4232-9d99-a9a3fcd07f05","type":"image","imageUrl":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/722c1239-8c49-4db5-8490-0dfde46dd875_2866x1296.png","imageWidth":2866,"imageHeight":1296,"explicit":false}],"name":"My Weekly Stock","user_id":25966035,"photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ImaI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa22d8d4f-ef92-42b7-8b6f-e7ce0f4142a6_500x500.png","user_bestseller_tier":100,"userStatus":{"bestsellerTier":100,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":100},"subscriber":null}},"source":null,"forumChannel":null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder">

3. Stock Analysis of the Week

I selected a name with recently reported earnings and ran it through the full Momentum Pulse Check to assess the implications for long-term positions. This week: Nebius ($NBIS).

My View → HOLD

$NBIS had a parabolic 10x move from 2025 to mid-2026. This summer has brought heightened volatility as momentum took a much-needed cool-down. The last two weeks took an even more dramatic turn, with a 40%+ gain last week after reporting earnings, followed by a 20% drop this week. That kind of swing in either direction reminds you of the risk profile you are signing up for with this name.

Overall, the momentum structure is still positive. Price remains above both the 9 and the 30-week EMA. But trading 22% below the all-time high means plenty of overhead resistance could keep us in sideways, volatile action for some time. The ultimate proof of strength here would be a clean breakout above the previous high. Until then, patience is the strategy.

The full breakdown (trend score, key levels, and implications) is available in this Substack Note.

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`ECONOMIC & EARNINGS REPORTS`

1. Economic Reports

It was a relatively light week on the economic calendar, with the main focus on the FOMC meeting minutes and Friday’s PMI data. The FOMC minutes revealed a hawkish split, with 3 members voting for a 25bp hike and several others signaling that further tightening could be needed if inflation remains elevated.

2. Earnings Outlook

Q2 2026 Earnings: S&P 500 earnings expected to grow +52% year-over-year (+48% when excluding Energy).
2026 Full-Year Outlook: Consensus forecasts +34% growth, largely above the 10-year average of +9 %.
Analyst Revisions: 69% of all revisions in the past month have been upward.
Valuation: Forward 4-quarter P/E ratio stands at 20.2, above both the 5-year and 10-year historical averages.

3. Earnings Season Recap

Out of the 465 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 2026 earnings, 85% exceeded EPS expectations, above the four-quarter average of 80% and above the historical average of 67%.

Below are some notable companies that reported last week, along with their EPS/revenue performance vs. estimates and weekly stock returns.

One highlight this week: Walmart ($WMT). The retailer sold off sharply despite beating earnings expectations, as weaker-than-expected US comparable sales and soft Q3 guidance raised concerns about slowing consumer demand. The stocks lost 10% this week.

📌 My take:
The FOMC minutes leaned hawkish, with more members open to further tightening if inflation stays sticky. Meanwhile, earnings are holding up remarkably well and are enough to offset worries about where rates and Treasury yields are headed.

MARKET SENTIMENT

1. VIX (Volatility Index)

Current reading: 15.2, a low value, and up 6% from last Friday.

2. CNN Fear & Greed Index

This index combines seven market indicators to score investor sentiment from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed).

Current reading is 56 (Greed), down from 65 a week ago.

3. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator

Current reading: 9.5 an extreme bullish signal, and typically a contrarian “sell” signal.

📌 My take:
Despite the market’s loss this week, short-term sentiment measures remain largely unchanged, with volatility still low and the CNN Fear & Greed Index in Greed territory, but not yet showing signs of overheating.

`THE WEEK AHEAD`

1. Economic Calendar

The main events on the economic agenda will be Wednesday’s GDP update and PCE inflation report. The PCE Price Index is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, so markets will be watching closely for any sign that inflation is reaccelerating. At the same time, the latest GDP revision will provide an important update on the strength of the U.S. economy

Key data:

Core PCE Price Index (MoM): 0.2% expected vs. 0.1% previous
Core PCE Price Index (YoY): 3.3% expected vs. 3.3% previous
GDP (QoQ, Q2): 1.5% expected vs. 2.1% previous
Durable Goods Orders (MoM): 0.7% expected vs. 0.3% previous

2. Earnings Calendar

The earnings season continues next week, with 18 S&P 500 companies set to report their quarterly results.

3. Earnings Watchlist

Below are notable stocks reporting earnings next week, along with my Momentum Pulse Check snapshot and implied volatility for the upcoming week.

In particular, I will keep a close eye on Nvidia ($NVDA). With expectations already extremely high, guidance on AI demand, data-center growth, and margins could set the tone for the broader tech sector and the market as a whole. Market is pricing a 6% move next week.

📌 My take:
A packed week ahead, with inflation and GDP data alongside a slate of key Tech earnings across AI, semiconductors, and software, with all eyes obviously on Nvidia ($NVDA). Wednesday's post-market session will see several major reports, which could drive elevated volatility in the days leading up to those releases.

`COMMUNITY SPOTLIGHT`

Each week, I highlight another Substack publication that offers valuable insights, fresh perspectives, or a helpful approach. This week, I’m pleased to feature

JPARCVUE is an independent equity research publication covering Japanese small and mid cap stocks, written for English speaking international investors. Primary source research from yuho filings and IR materials is a core part of the approach.

Here is a recent piece on Nakanishi (7716), a dental and medical equipment manufacturer:

JPARCVUE

NAKANISHI INC. (7716) Q2 Earnings FY2026

23 days ago · 29 likes · JPARCVUE

CONCLUSION

That’s a wrap for this recap! I spend hours every week structuring this recap so you can quickly find the insights you need, week after week.

You enjoyed this recap and want the actionable side? Paid subscribers get access to my weekly Momentum Picks, with more than 1,000% return since 2019, or 30% per year.

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Happy investing,

My Weekly Stock,

DISCLAIMER

Trading Update: +52% Year-to-Date. My Picks for Next Week Inside

Sun, 16 Aug 2026 08:02:21 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock.

A new week is around the corner, which means one thing for me: preparing my trading plan.

Each week, my algo selects 3 momentum picks to trade from Monday open till Friday close.

The result? 1,074% return since 2019, or 33% average annual return and outperforming the S&P 500 by 5×.

Want these picks delivered straight to your inbox, plus my entry/exit rules and my complete framework? Upgrade your subscription and get full access.

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`SUMMARY`

Here are the top highlights for my weekly momentum strategy:

Last week: +2.5%. 2 winning picks out of 3.
2026 YTD: +52% | Since 2019: +1,074%, 33% CAGR. 58% Hit rate.
Week ahead: 3 longs, 1 Dow30, 1 Large Cap, 1 Nasdaq100.

📌 Trading week reflections:

Nice continuation for my momentum algo, with a third consecutive weekly win and my 2026 return now reaching 52%. This is the kind of market environment my algo thrives in, as we’re finally seeing good follow-through.

That said, it wasn’t necessarily an easy week to trade. It never is when real money is on the line. The week was volatile and once again tested my discipline, with a strong Monday open followed by mid-week weakness. Another reminder of how important it is to tune out the noise and stick to predetermined rules.

Mine are simple: I hold until Friday’s close unless my predefined stop-loss is hit. And “predefined” is the most important word here. Otherwise, you’re simply reacting emotionally to whatever the market throws at you.

I’m continuing with 3 longs next week, with 2 picks returning to my trading list as my algo looks for momentum continuation.

1. My Strategy

After years of research, I’ve developed a winning momentum strategy that cuts through market noise. If you’re new here or want a deeper dive into my strategy, check out my detailed post below:

Since these picks are often well into their up (or down) trends, I use tight stop-losses to manage risk as reversals can be swift.

The end result? 3 momentum picks per week I hold from Monday open to Friday close. Rule-based, no second-guessing.

2. Performance Update

Since 2019, my momentum picks have delivered a cumulative return of +1,074% (with stop-loss rules applied), roughly 5× the S&P 500 over the same period. That translates into a 33% CAGR.

At the weekly level, the strategy has a 58% hit rate. The maximum drawdown is -19%, and the worst rolling 12-week return is -15%.

Last week, I traded 3 longs

Dow 30 – MMM: -0.4%
Large Cap – TSLA: +4.8%
Nasdaq – ABNB: +3.0%

The average return for the week was +2.5%, bringing my 2026 performance to +52%.

A 3rd consecutive weekly win as I continue riding the recent market momentum. The week was volatile, though, and once again tested my discipline, with a strong Monday open followed by mid-week weakness. Another reminder of how important it is to tune out the noise and stick to my predetermined rules.

From 2019 through 2024, the strategy was based solely on one pick from the Dow 30 index. In 2025, I expanded to include a pick from Large Caps, and in January 2026, one from the Nasdaq 100 index.

While I have backtested results since 2022 for the additional watchlists, I only include live, publicly published picks in the official performance record.

Returns are calculated from Monday’s market open to Friday’s close, unless a stop-loss is triggered. Performance is compounded weekly.

Paid subscribers have access to all the details behind the picks.

3. My Picks for the Week Ahead

Weekly Market Recap (Aug 10-14): Market Rally Holds, but 7,800 Caps Gains for the S&P 500

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 22:26:39 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where momentum meets discipline. My mission is to arm you with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.

Every Friday, I recap the U.S. market through a momentum lens to help you see what’s working and what’s not.

Want to go deeper? Paid subscribers get access to the full momentum framework behind my 30% average annual return since 2019: weekly picks, proprietary tools, and monthly market deep dives.

Subscribe now

`SUMMARY`

Here are this week's highlights and what to look out for next:

1. Performance Recap: a mixed week across the equity markets: S&P 500 (0.4%), Nasdaq (0.1%), Dow Jones (-0.6%). Sector leaders: Energy (+7.7%) and Utilities (+1.6%).
2. Momentum Pulse Check: S&P 500’s long-term trend is strong and so is the short-term momentum. Next resistance: 7,815; support: 7,630.
3. Earnings Update: 436 S&P 500 companies reported Q2 2026 earnings with 85% topping estimates. Q2 earnings growth: +51%, full-year 2026 outlook: +33%.
4. Sentiment Check: CNN Fear & Greed at 65/100 (Greed); VIX was down 4% to 14.3.
5. Next week’s agenda: Earnings from Walmart and Home Depot. FOMC meeting minutes and PMI data.

📌 My Take:

The index notched a small gain, continuing to ride the recent rally. Breadth was actually quite positive under the surface, with most S&P 500 stocks and sectors finishing higher despite the modest headline number. That looks like a typical digestion week following a strong run, and potentially the setup for the next leg higher.

That said, the 7,800 area capped gains and could be an important level to watch in the coming weeks. A clean break above it would open the door to further upside. For now, the momentum picture remains stable, with the index still well anchored in its short-term uptrend.

`PERFORMANCE RECAP`

1. S&P 500 Sector Breakdown

This week: 9 of the 11 sectors advanced. Energy (7.7%) was the best performer, while Consumer Cyclical (-1.4%) was the weakest.

Year-to-date: 9 sectors are positive. Energy (38.5 %) is the leader, while Communication Serv. (-4.1%) is the laggard.

2. S&P 500 Movers: Top & Worst Performers

Over the last five trading days, 59% of S&P 500 stocks closed higher.

Top Performers:

$SNDK (Sandisk Corporation): 35.4%
$SMCI (Super Micro Computer, Inc.): 28%
$STX (Seagate Technology Holdings PLC): 19.8%
$MPC (Marathon Petroleum Corporation): 19.2%
$WDC (Western Digital Corporation): 17.2%

Worst Performers:

$APP (Applovin Corporation): -9%
$ULTA (Ulta Beauty, Inc.): -9.6%
$FSLR (First Solar, Inc.): -9.8%
$COHR (Coherent Corp.): -14.1%
$TPR (Tapestry, Inc.): -20.6%

3. S&P 500 Movers: New 1-Year Highs & Lows

This week, 38 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 4 stocks fell to new lows.Financials stood out, contributing 7 of this week’s new highs.

Notable new 52-week highs:

$BRK.B (Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New)
$JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co.)
$BAC (Bank of America Corporation)
$RTX (RTX Corporation)
$PANW (Palo Alto Networks, Inc.)

Notable new 52-week lows:

$APP (Applovin Corporation)
$TTD (The Trade Desk, Inc.)
$ZTS (Zoetis Inc.)
$ROL (Rollins, Inc.)

📌 My take:
A positive week across the board, with most S&P 500 stocks and sectors finishing higher despite the modest headline index performance. This looks like a typical week of digesting the recent rally and potentially setting the stage for the next leg higher.

`MOMENTUM PULSE CHECK`

1. S&P 500 Pulse Check

(1) Performance: positive short-term performance, and trading at short distance form 1-year high.

1-month performance: +3.4%
3-month performance: +3.8%
Distance from 52-week high: -0.2%

(2) Breadth: positive breadth reading.

Breadth measures how many stocks are joining the move. Extreme readings (>80% or <20%) often signal overbought/oversold conditions and serve as early warning signs of a trend reversal.

% of stocks above 200-day moving average: 72% (flat from last week)
% of stocks above 20-day moving average: 66% (up from 65% last week)

(3) Trends: strong long-term and short-term uptrend.

I analyze trend strength using exponential moving averages (EMAs) and score them on a 1-5 scale. A score of 3+ indicates a healthy trend worth riding.

Weekly chart (long-term/position):

Strong Uptrend ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐, Status: Stable

Daily chart (mid-term/swing trade):

Strong Uptrend ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐, Status: Stable

4) Key levels:

Critical price zones that either confirm the current trend or warn of a potential reversal.

Support (downside zones to watch)

7,310 (-6.1%)
7500 (-3.7%)
7,630 (2.0%)

Resistance (upside hurdles)

7,815 (+0.4%)
8,000 (+2.8%)

📌 My take:
The momentum picture remains stable week over week, with the index still well anchored in its short-term uptrend. The next key test is the 7,800 resistance level, which needs to be cleared to open the door for further upside.

2. Momentum Deep Dive of the Week

Each week, I select a specific theme and run the entire framework to pinpoint where the momentum lies.

This week, the theme is the Consumer Cyclicals. Sector leaders have seen strong momentum, particularly in the travel and consumer discretionary space. $ABNB and $BKNG are clear standouts with 30%+ gains in the past month. As usual, I also like to keep an eye on the bottom of the list for potential recovery stories in the making. Only $MCD is showing an attempt at a bounce with warming momentum.

EMA 30\n\n✅ Both EMAs rising\n\n= Strong trend\n\nHere’s what my momentum model shows:\n\n1) Uptrend:\n\n\n\n\n\nAirbnb ($ABNB): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nAmazon ($AMZN): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nBooking Holdings ($BKNG): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nStarbucks ($SBUX): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nMarriott ($MAR): ⭐⭐⭐☆☆\n\n2) Sideways:\n\n\n\n\n\nHome Depot ($HD): ⭐⭐⭐☆☆\n\n3) Downtrend:\n\n\n\n\n\nTJX Companies ($TJX): ⭐⭐☆☆☆\n\n\n\nLowe's ($LOW): ☆☆☆☆☆\n\n\n\nMcDonald's ($MCD): ☆☆☆☆☆\n\nIn short: Sector leaders have seen strong momentum, particularly in the travel and consumer discretionary space. $ABNB and $BKNG are clear standouts with 30%+ gains in the past month. As usual, I also like to keep an eye on the bottom of the list for potential recovery stories in the making. Only $MCD is showing an attempt at a bounce with warming momentum.\n\nWhat is your favorite Consumer Cyclical at the moment?","body_json":{"type":"doc","content":[{"content":[{"text":"Momentum Pulse Check: Which Consumer Cyclical stock Has the Best Trend?","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"text":"I evaluated the trend strength of","type":"text"},{"text":" 10 Consumer Cyclical stocks,","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"type":"text","text":" using my proprietary \""},{"type":"text","text":"Momentum Pulse Check\"","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]},{"type":"text","text":", which scores trends based on the 9- and 30-week EMAs (out of 5 stars):"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"✅ Price above both EMAs","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"✅ EMA 9 > EMA 30","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"✅ Both EMAs rising","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"= Strong trend","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Here’s what my momentum model shows:","type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"1) Uptrend:","marks":[{"type":"bold"}]}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Airbnb ($ABNB): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Amazon ($AMZN): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Booking Holdings ($BKNG): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐","type":"text"}]}]},{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Starbucks ($SBUX): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐","type":"text"}]}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Marriott ($MAR): ⭐⭐⭐☆☆"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text","text":"2) Sideways:"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"content":[{"content":[{"text":"Home Depot ($HD): ⭐⭐⭐☆☆","type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text","text":"3) Downtrend:"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"TJX Companies ($TJX): ⭐⭐☆☆☆"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Lowe's ($LOW): ☆☆☆☆☆","type":"text"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"McDonald's ($MCD): ☆☆☆☆☆"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text","text":"In short: "},{"type":"text","text":"Sector leaders have seen strong momentum, particularly in the travel and consumer discretionary space. $ABNB and $BKNG are clear standouts with 30%+ gains in the past month. As usual, I also like to keep an eye on the bottom of the list for potential recovery stories in the making. Only $MCD is showing an attempt at a bounce with warming momentum."}]},{"content":[{"text":"What is your favorite Consumer Cyclical at the moment?","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"}},"restacks":3,"reaction_count":15,"children_count":1,"attachments":[{"id":"b42ace25-5f10-4832-9399-31845a484197","type":"image","imageUrl":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8b0e269e-ca03-4bb8-9cf0-4857fbdce762_2866x1266.png","imageWidth":2866,"imageHeight":1266,"explicit":false}],"name":"My Weekly Stock","user_id":25966035,"photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ImaI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa22d8d4f-ef92-42b7-8b6f-e7ce0f4142a6_500x500.png","user_bestseller_tier":100,"userStatus":{"bestsellerTier":100,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":100},"subscriber":null}},"source":null,"forumChannel":null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder">

3. Stock Analysis of the Week

I selected a name with recently reported earnings and ran it through the full Momentum Pulse Check to assess the implications for long-term positions. This week: Eli Lilly ($LLY).

My View → HOLD

$LLY has all the marks of a reliable market leader: up more than 20% over 3 months, leading the S&P 500 by a wide margin, and trading at record highs.

But what makes this chart truly clean is not the performance but the structure. Price is trading above rising trend lines with no signs of exhaustion and not overheating. Just a healthy uptrend doing exactly what a healthy uptrend should do. And that makes continuation the base case.

The full breakdown (trend score, key levels, and implications) is available in this Substack Note.

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`ECONOMIC & EARNINGS REPORTS`

1. Economic Reports

Last week was mostly about inflation and consumer data. Inflation came in largely in line with expectations, with CPI continuing to run above the Fed’s 2% target, while PPI was softer than expected. Retail sales were the bigger disappointment on Friday, with both headline and core sales contracting and missing expectations.

Key data:

CPI (MoM): 0.1% vs. 0.1% expected
Core CPI (MoM): 0.2% vs. 0.2% expected
CPI (YoY): 3.4% vs. 3.4% expected
PPI (MoM): 0.0% vs. 0.2% expected
Retail Sales (MoM): -0.6% vs. 0.1% expected
Core Retail Sales (MoM): -0.3% vs. 0.2% expected

2. Earnings Outlook

Q2 2026 Earnings: S&P 500 earnings expected to grow +51% year-over-year (+47% when excluding Energy).
2026 Full-Year Outlook: Consensus forecasts +33% growth, largely above the 10-year average of +9 %.
Analyst Revisions: 68% of all revisions in the past month have been upward.
Valuation: Forward 4-quarter P/E ratio stands at 20.5, above both the 5-year and 10-year historical averages.

3. Earnings Season Recap

Out of the 436 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 2026 earnings, 85% exceeded EPS expectations, above the four-quarter average of 80% and above the historical average of 67%.

Below are some notable companies that reported last week, along with their EPS/revenue performance vs. estimates and weekly stock returns.

One highlight this week: Nebius and CoreWeave. $NBIS and $CRWV surged post-earnings as strong revenue growth, rising AI compute demand, and upbeat forward outlooks reinforced confidence that customers are absorbing aggressive capacity expansion. The stocks were up 48% and 16% respectively for the week.

📌 My take:
Inflation data coming in as expected and strong earnings from several AI names helped lift market sentiment last week.

MARKET SENTIMENT

1. VIX (Volatility Index)

Current reading: 14.3, a low value, and down 4% from last Friday.

2. CNN Fear & Greed Index

This index combines seven market indicators to score investor sentiment from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed).

Current reading is 65 (Greed), up from 64 a week ago.

3. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator

Current reading: 9.7 an extreme bullish signal, and typically a contrarian “sell” signal.

📌 My take:
No significant change in the sentiment picture last week, with volatility remaining low and the CNN Fear & Greed Index stable in Greed territory. Sentiment is positive, but not yet showing signs of overheating.

`THE WEEK AHEAD`

1. Economic Calendar

It will be a relatively light week for economic data, with the main focus on the FOMC meeting minutes from the Fed’s July meeting. Given the growing divisions within the central bank, markets will be looking closely for more details on the debate around inflation and the future path of interest rates.

Key reports:

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug): Previous: 53.9
S&P Global Services PMI (Aug): Previous: 54.6

2. Earnings Calendar

The earnings season continues next week, with 10 S&P 500 companies set to report their quarterly results.

3. Earnings Watchlist

Below are notable stocks reporting earnings next week, along with my Momentum Pulse Check snapshot and implied volatility for the upcoming week.

In particular, I will keep a close eye on Walmart ($WMT). The report will provide a read on the health of the US consumer segment and signal whether demand remains resilient. Market is pricing a 5% move next week.

📌 My take:
FOMC meeting minutes and Retail sector earnings will set the tone for the week ahead, especially as markets continue to assess the likelihood of a potential rate hike in the coming months.

`COMMUNITY SPOTLIGHT`

Each week, I highlight another Substack publication that offers valuable insights, fresh perspectives, or a helpful approach. This week, I’m pleased to feature

Investors’ Wisdom curates timeless insights on investing, psychology, and philosophy from influential investors, thinkers, books, and blogs, focused on helping readers think and invest more wisely.

Here is the link to one of his post:

Investors' Wisdom

🟠Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and the Man Who Should Have Been Just as Famous

Most people know Warren Buffett. Most know Charlie Munger…

3 months ago · 47 likes · 9 comments · Investors' Wisdom and Kartheek Thokala

CONCLUSION

That’s a wrap for this recap! I spend hours every week structuring this recap so you can quickly find the insights you need, week after week.

You enjoyed this recap and want the actionable side? Paid subscribers get access to my weekly Momentum Picks, with more than 1,000% return since 2019, or 30% per year.

Subscribe now

Happy investing,

My Weekly Stock,

DISCLAIMER

Trading Update: +48% Year-to-Date. My Picks for Next Week Inside

Sun, 09 Aug 2026 08:01:30 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock.

A new week is around the corner, which means one thing for me: preparing my trading plan.

Each week, my algo selects 3 momentum picks to trade from Monday open till Friday close.

The result? 1,046% return since 2019, or 33% average annual return and outperforming the S&P 500 by 5×.

Want these picks delivered straight to your inbox, plus my entry/exit rules and my complete framework? Upgrade your subscription and get full access.

Subscribe now

`SUMMARY`

Here are the top highlights for my weekly momentum strategy:

Last week: +4.0%. 2 wins out of 3.
2026 YTD: +48% | Since 2019: +1,046%, 33% CAGR. 58% Hit rate.
Week ahead: 3 longs, 1 Dow30, 1 Large Cap, 1 Nasdaq100.

📌 Trading week reflections:

Good confirmation and a nice win, with one double-digit winner leading the way. A welcome rebound for the strategy as momentum conditions have materially improved over the past two weeks, coming off a tough June and July where the market went sideways and I struggled to find a clear theme or trend to ride.

That said, two good weeks is not the time to get carried away, just as I was not getting worried during the losing streak. I know too well that returns are not evenly distributed. Your resolve gets tested during long losing streaks, but that is exactly where you construct your gains by staying disciplined, staying focused, and executing the plan. Because once the tide turns, and it always does, you are ready to enjoy it.

With my strategy of exiting all positions by Friday, every Monday is a fresh start. I will approach next week the same way I approach every week: focused purely on executing the plan and letting the returns take care of themselves.

1. My Strategy

After years of research, I’ve developed a winning momentum strategy that cuts through market noise. If you’re new here or want a deeper dive into my strategy, check out my detailed post below:

Since these picks are often well into their up (or down) trends, I use tight stop-losses to manage risk as reversals can be swift.

The end result? 3 momentum picks per week I hold from Monday open to Friday close. Rule-based, no second-guessing.

2. Performance Update

Since 2019, my momentum picks have delivered a cumulative return of +1,046% (with stop-loss rules applied), roughly 5× the S&P 500 over the same period. That translates into a 33% CAGR.

At the weekly level, the strategy has a 58% hit rate. The maximum drawdown is -19%, and the worst rolling 12-week return is -15%.

Last week, I traded 3 longs

Dow 30 – JPM: +1.1%
Large Cap – ORCL: +11.4%
Nasdaq – CRWV : -0.6%

The average return for the week was +4.0%, bringing my 2026 performance to +48%.

A great week, helped by strong momentum across the market. That said, execution mattered, as it was important not to miss the Monday open and, just as importantly, not to chase the rally afterward.

From 2019 through 2024, the strategy was based solely on one pick from the Dow 30 index. In 2025, I expanded to include a pick from Large Caps, and in January 2026, one from the Nasdaq 100 index.

While I have backtested results since 2022 for the additional watchlists, I only include live, publicly published picks in the official performance record.

Returns are calculated from Monday’s market open to Friday’s close, unless a stop-loss is triggered. Performance is compounded weekly.

Paid subscribers have access to all the details behind the picks.

3. My Picks for the Week Ahead

Weekly Market Recap (Aug 3-7): Patience Pays Off as the S&P 500 Breaks to New Highs

Fri, 07 Aug 2026 21:31:10 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where momentum meets discipline. My mission is to arm you with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.

Every Friday, I recap the U.S. market through a momentum lens to help you see what’s working and what’s not.

Want to go deeper? Paid subscribers get access to the full momentum framework behind my 30% average annual return since 2019: weekly picks, proprietary tools, and monthly market deep dives.

Subscribe now

`SUMMARY`

Here are this week's highlights and what to look out for next:

1. Performance Recap: a winning week across the equity markets: S&P 500 (3.6%), Nasdaq (5.2%), Dow Jones (3%). Sector leaders: Technology (+7.2%) and Materials (+4.8%).
2. Momentum Pulse Check: S&P 500’s long-term trend is strong and so is the short-term momentum. Next resistance: 7,800; support: 7,620.
3. Earnings Update: 436 S&P 500 companies reported Q2 2026 earnings with 85% topping estimates. Q2 earnings growth: +51%, full-year 2026 outlook: +33%.
4. Sentiment Check: CNN Fear & Greed at 64/100 (Greed); VIX was down 7% to 14.9.
5. Next week’s agenda: Earnings from Applied Material and Cisco. CPI, PPI reports; Retail Sales data.

📌 My Take:

The past two weeks serve as a good reminder that there is no need to turn overly bearish during a short-term consolidation, as long as the broader long-term momentum structure remains intact. The two-month sideways grind was tough to navigate, with some painful volatility and pullbacks along the way. But these periods always resolve with a strong directional move, and my bias is for trend continuation.

But I always let the price action confirm my bias, and as I mentioned last week, what I needed to see was a multi-day rally that would clear key resistance. We got exactly that. The S&P 500 carried last week’s momentum straight toward record highs. Markets rarely move in a straight line, but the recent price action suggests there may be more room in this leg, with 8,000 as the next area to watch.

`PERFORMANCE RECAP`

1. S&P 500 Sector Breakdown

This week: 8 of the 11 sectors advanced. Technology (7.2%) was the best performer, while Energy (-3.4%) was the weakest.

Year-to-date: 10 sectors are positive. Technology (30.6 %) is the leader, while Communication Serv. (-5.5%) is the laggard.

2. S&P 500 Movers: Top & Worst Performers

Over the last five trading days, 70% of S&P 500 stocks closed higher.

Top Performers:

$COHR (Coherent Corp.): 44.2%
$PLTR (Palantir Technologies Inc.): 39.8%
$ZBRA (Zebra Technologies Corporation): 28.1%
$LITE (Lumentum Holdings Inc.): 24.7%
$IT (Gartner, Inc.): 22.9%

Worst Performers:

$TPL (Texas Pacific Land Corporation): -15.4%
$HONA (Honeywell Aerospace Inc.): -18.5%
$WDC (Western Digital Corporation): -20.3%
$DVA (DaVita Inc.): -23.5%
$TTD (The Trade Desk, Inc.): -23.5%

3. S&P 500 Movers: New 1-Year Highs & Lows

This week, 57 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 7 stocks fell to new lows.Financials stood out, contributing 14 of this week’s new highs.

Notable new 52-week highs:

$AMZN (Amazon.com, Inc.)
$BRK.B (Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New)
$JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co.)
$BAC (Bank of America Corporation)
$GE (GE Aerospace)

Notable new 52-week lows:

$APP (Applovin Corporation)
$PEG (Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated)
$CCI (Crown Castle Inc.)
$NRG (NRG Energy, Inc.)
$ROL (Rollins, Inc.)

📌 My take:
Momentum was strong across the board last week, with around 70% of S&P 500 stocks finishing higher. The rally was led by the Technology sector, but broad participation across the market was another encouraging sign.

`MOMENTUM PULSE CHECK`

1. S&P 500 Pulse Check

(1) Performance: positive short-term performance, and trading at short distance form 1-year high.

1-month performance: +2.9%
3-month performance: +5.7%
Distance from 52-week high: -0.1%

(2) Breadth: positive breadth reading.

Breadth measures how many stocks are joining the move. Extreme readings (>80% or <20%) often signal overbought/oversold conditions and serve as early warning signs of a trend reversal.

% of stocks above 200-day moving average: 72% (up from 66% last week)
% of stocks above 20-day moving average: 65% (up from 53% last week)

(3) Trends: strong long-term and short-term uptrend.

I analyze trend strength using exponential moving averages (EMAs) and score them on a 1-5 scale. A score of 3+ indicates a healthy trend worth riding.

Weekly chart (long-term/position):

Strong Uptrend ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐, Status: Stable

Daily chart (mid-term/swing trade):

Strong Uptrend ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐, Status: Stable

4) Key levels:

Critical price zones that either confirm the current trend or warn of a potential reversal.

Support (downside zones to watch)

7,310 (-5.8%)
7500 (-3.3%)
7,620 (1.8%)

Resistance (upside hurdles)

7,800 (+0.5%)
8,000 (+3.1%)

📌 My take:
A nice breakout to new all-time highs following a two-month consolidation. This appears to mark the start of the next leg higher, with the 8,000 level now looking like a realistic upside target, provided the breakout holds.

2. Momentum Deep Dive of the Week

Each week, I select a specific theme and run the entire framework to pinpoint where the momentum lies.

This week, the theme is the Mega Caps. Momentum on mega caps has improved significantly, with a growing number of names now in clear uptrends, including an impressive turnaround in $MSFT. That said, many of these leaders are already becoming extended, so I don’t think this is the time to chase them. I also like to keep an eye on the bottom of the rankings for potential recovery stories, but just too early for $WMT, $TSLA, and $META.

EMA 30\n\n✅ Both EMAs rising\n\n= Strong trend\n\nHere’s what my momentum model shows:\n\n1) Uptrend:\n\n\n\n\n\nAmazon ($AMZN): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nBroadcom ($AVGO): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nJPMorgan ($JPM): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nNvidia ($NVDA): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nApple ($AAPL): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nEli Lilly ($LLY): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nMicrosoft ($MSFT): ⭐⭐⭐☆☆\n\n2) Downtrend:\n\n\n\n\n\nMeta ($META): ⭐☆☆☆☆\n\n\n\nTesla ($TSLA): ☆☆☆☆☆\n\n\n\nWalmart ($WMT): ☆☆☆☆☆\n\nIn short: Mega Cap momentum has improved significantly, with a growing number of names now in clear uptrends, including an impressive turnaround in $MSFT. That said, many of these leaders are already becoming extended, so I don't think this is the time to chase them. I also like to keep an eye on the bottom of the rankings for potential recovery stories, but just too early for $WMT, $TSLA, and $META.\n\nWhat is you favorite Mega Cap at the moment?","body_json":{"attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"type":"doc","content":[{"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Momentum Pulse Check: Which Mega Cap Has the Best Trend?"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"I evaluated the trend strength of"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":" 10 Mega Caps,"},{"type":"text","text":" using my proprietary \""},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Momentum Pulse Check\""},{"type":"text","text":", which scores trends based on the 9- and 30-week EMAs (out of 5 stars):"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"✅ Price above both EMAs"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"✅ EMA 9 > EMA 30"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"✅ Both EMAs rising"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"= Strong trend"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Here’s what my momentum model shows:"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"1) Uptrend:"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"content":[{"content":[{"text":"Amazon ($AMZN): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐","type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"content":[{"text":"Broadcom ($AVGO): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐","type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"content":[{"text":"JPMorgan ($JPM): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐","type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"content":[{"text":"Nvidia ($NVDA): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐","type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"content":[{"text":"Apple ($AAPL): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐","type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"content":[{"text":"Eli Lilly ($LLY): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐","type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"content":[{"text":"Microsoft ($MSFT): ⭐⭐⭐☆☆","type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"}],"type":"bulletList"},{"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"2) Downtrend:"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"content":[{"content":[{"text":"Meta ($META): ⭐☆☆☆☆","type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"content":[{"text":"Tesla ($TSLA): ☆☆☆☆☆","type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"content":[{"text":"Walmart ($WMT): ☆☆☆☆☆","type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"}],"type":"bulletList"},{"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"In short: "},{"type":"text","text":"Mega Cap momentum has improved significantly, with a growing number of names now in clear uptrends, including an impressive turnaround in $MSFT. That said, many of these leaders are already becoming extended, so I don't think this is the time to chase them. I also like to keep an eye on the bottom of the rankings for potential recovery stories, but just too early for $WMT, $TSLA, and $META."}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"What is you favorite Mega Cap at the moment?"}],"type":"paragraph"}]},"restacks":1,"reaction_count":21,"children_count":1,"attachments":[{"id":"bad55e28-d80e-400b-8ce4-2e43f7beecc0","type":"image","imageUrl":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e4056d60-be5b-4e25-91e8-3806fb8a6324_2866x1266.png","imageWidth":2866,"imageHeight":1266,"explicit":false}],"name":"My Weekly Stock","user_id":25966035,"photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ImaI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa22d8d4f-ef92-42b7-8b6f-e7ce0f4142a6_500x500.png","user_bestseller_tier":100,"userStatus":{"bestsellerTier":100,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":100},"subscriber":null}},"source":null,"forumChannel":null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder">

3. Stock Analysis of the Week

I selected a name with recently reported earnings and ran it through the full Momentum Pulse Check to assess the implications for long-term positions. This week: Apple ($AAPL).

My View → HOLD

After a strong run, last week’s post-earnings selloff looked concerning at first, but it has done little damage to the broader trend structure. The pullback has simply brought the stock back to its rising 9-week EMA, a trendline that leading stocks often revisit during healthy uptrends.

The stabilization we’ve seen this week also suggests the bulls haven’t dropped the ball just yet and remain broadly in control. The key now is to see whether the stock can bounce from this support level and resume its uptrend, or whether it will need a deeper or longer consolidation before making its next move.

The full breakdown (trend score, key levels, and implications) is available in this Substack Note.

Subscribe now

`ECONOMIC & EARNINGS REPORTS`

1. Economic Reports

It was another busy week for economic data, but the July Job Report stole the spotlight. The report came in much weaker than expected, with the U.S. economy unexpectedly losing jobs for the month. Wage growth also slowed, while the unemployment rate edged lower. Overall, the report reinforced signs that the labor market is cooling, potentially giving the Fed more room to ease policy later this year.

Key reports:

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul): Actual: 55.6, Forecast: 54.0, Previous: 53.3
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul): Actual: 54.1, Forecast: 54.5, Previous: 54.0
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jul): Actual: 0.1%, Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.3%
Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul): Actual: -23K, Forecast: 85K, Previous: 20K
Unemployment Rate (Jul): Actual: 4.1%, Forecast: 4.2%, Previous: 4.2%

2. Earnings Outlook

Q2 2026 Earnings: S&P 500 earnings expected to grow +51% year-over-year (+47% when excluding Energy).
2026 Full-Year Outlook: Consensus forecasts +33% growth, largely above the 10-year average of +9 %.
Analyst Revisions: 68% of all revisions in the past month have been upward.
Valuation: Forward 4-quarter P/E ratio stands at 20.5, above both the 5-year and 10-year historical averages.

3. Earnings Season Recap

Out of the 436 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 2026 earnings, 85% exceeded EPS expectations, above the four-quarter average of 80% and above the historical average of 67%.

Below are some notable companies that reported last week, along with their EPS/revenue performance vs. estimates and weekly stock returns.

One highlight this week: Palantir ($PLTR). The stock jumped nearly 40% after delivering a standout Q2 2026 earnings report. The rally was fueled by explosive growth in its U.S. commercial AI business, along with a significant increase to the company's full-year revenue guidance.

📌 My take:
Blockbuster earnings from Palantir helped lift market sentiment early in the week. Even Friday's weaker-than-expected jobs report failed to derail the rally, as the softer labor market data may pressure the Fed to avoid further policy tightening.

MARKET SENTIMENT

1. VIX (Volatility Index)

Current reading: 14.9, a low value, and down 7% from last Friday.

2. CNN Fear & Greed Index

This index combines seven market indicators to score investor sentiment from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed).

Current reading is 64 (Greed), up from 43 a week ago.

3. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator

Current reading: 9.4 an extreme bullish signal, and typically a contrarian “sell” signal.

source: https://x.com/neilsethinew

📌 My take:
Volatility remains low, while the CNN Fear & Greed Index has climbed back into Greed territory. That's not necessarily bearish, but after last week's strong rally, it does suggest the market may be due for a pause to digest those gains before attempting another leg higher.

`THE WEEK AHEAD`

1. Economic Calendar

It's another inflation-focused week for markets. CPI and PPI reports come out first, followed by Retail Sales, giving investors a clearer picture of price trends and how consumers are holding up.

Key reports:

CPI (YoY) (Jul): Previous: 3.5%
CPI (MoM) (Jul): Previous: -0.4%
PPI (MoM) (Jul): Previous: -0.3%
Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul): Previous: 0.2%
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul): Previous: -0.2%

2. Earnings Calendar

The earnings season continues next week, with 12 S&P 500 companies set to report their quarterly results.

3. Earnings Watchlist

Below are notable stocks reporting earnings next week, along with my Momentum Pulse Check snapshot and implied volatility for the upcoming week.

In particular, I will keep a close eye on Applied Materials ($AMAT). As the world's leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer, its earnings will provide another important read on AI infrastructure spending, chip demand, and the broader health of the semiconductor sector. Market is pricing a 10% move next week.

📌 My take:
Earnings season continues with a few notable Tech names still set to report, but the market's attention will increasingly shift back to macroeconomic data. This week's inflation and Retail Sales reports will be closely watched, especially after the Fed's recent hawkish messaging, as they could significantly influence expectations for the next policy meeting.

`COMMUNITY SPOTLIGHT`

Each week, I highlight another Substack publication that offers valuable insights, fresh perspectives, or a helpful approach. This week, I’m pleased to feature

In a market obsessed with short-term price action, next quarter’s earnings beats, and the latest fleeting trends, it is easy to lose sight of what actually drives long-term wealth: owning exceptional businesses at rational prices.
CompoundingAlpha is dedicated to cutting through the daily financial noise. This publication is built on the premise that rigorous fundamental analysis, an understanding of unit economics, and a focus on durable competitive advantages are the keys to outperformance.
Here, we treat stocks as fractional ownership in real businesses, not just tickers on a screen.

Here is the link to one of his post:

CompoundingAlpha

Jet Engines and AI Data Centers: The FTAI Aviation ($FTAI) Deep Dive

When most investors look at the commercial aviation sector, they see a graveyard of capital. It is an industry infamous for cyclicality, massive capital expenditure requirements, and razor-thin margins. The traditional playbook—buying aircraft and leasing them out for decades—yields predictable but structurally low returns…

2 months ago · 21 likes · Nick | CompoundingAlpha

CONCLUSION

That’s a wrap for this recap! I spend hours every week structuring this recap so you can quickly find the insights you need, week after week.

You enjoyed this recap and want the actionable side? Paid subscribers get access to my weekly Momentum Picks, with more than 1,000% return since 2019, or 30% per year.

Subscribe now

Happy investing,

My Weekly Stock,

DISCLAIMER

Trading Update: +42% Year-to-Date. My Picks for Next Week Inside

Sun, 02 Aug 2026 08:01:27 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock.

A new week is around the corner, which means one thing for me: preparing my trading plan.

Each week, my algo selects 3 momentum picks to trade from Monday open till Friday close.

The result? 1,002% return since 2019, or 32% average annual return and outperforming the S&P 500 by 5×.

Want these picks delivered straight to your inbox, plus my entry/exit rules and my complete framework? Upgrade your subscription and get full access.

Subscribe now

`SUMMARY`

Here are the top highlights for my weekly momentum strategy:

Last week: +3.6%. 2 wins out of 3.
2026 YTD: +42% | Since 2019: +1,002%, 32% CAGR. 58% Hit rate.
Week ahead: 3 longs, 1 Dow30, 1 Large Cap, 1 Nasdaq100.

📌 Trading week reflections:

A strong week on paper with a +3.6% gain, but it was far from easy. I saw multiple double-digit intraday swings on my positions, and I finished the week somewhat frustrated, since it could have gone even better. But after six straight weekly losses, I’ll gladly take a green week and use it as a base to build some more form here.

Heading into next week, I’m back to 3 longs, though that doesn’t mean I fully trust the recent rally. As I mentioned in the market recap, I want to see follow-through before I trust that this painful two-month sideways grind is actually behind us.

1. My Strategy

After years of research, I’ve developed a winning momentum strategy that cuts through market noise. If you’re new here or want a deeper dive into my strategy, check out my detailed post below:

Since these picks are often well into their up (or down) trends, I use tight stop-losses to manage risk as reversals can be swift.

The end result? 3 momentum picks per week I hold from Monday open to Friday close. Rule-based, no second-guessing.

2. Performance Update

Since 2019, my momentum picks have delivered a cumulative return of +1,002% (with stop-loss rules applied), roughly 5× the S&P 500 over the same period. That translates into a 32% CAGR.

At the weekly level, the strategy has a 58% hit rate. The maximum drawdown is -19%, and the worst rolling 12-week return is -15%.

Last week, I traded 2 longs and 1 short:

Dow 30 – TRV: -2.0%
Large Cap – ORCL: -4.0%
Nasdaq – CRWV : +2.8% (short)

The average return for the week was +3.6%, bringing my 2026 performance to +42%.

A great week, all things considered, especially given the volatility. Sure, it's a little frustrating that my short position was up 17% at one point before giving it back. But after six consecutive losing weeks, I'm not going to be too picky.

From 2019 through 2024, the strategy was based solely on one pick from the Dow 30 index. In 2025, I expanded to include a pick from Large Caps, and in January 2026, one from the Nasdaq 100 index.

While I have backtested results since 2022 for the additional watchlists, I only include live, publicly published picks in the official performance record.

Returns are calculated from Monday’s market open to Friday’s close, unless a stop-loss is triggered. Performance is compounded weekly.

Paid subscribers have access to all the details behind the picks.

3. My Picks for the Week Ahead

Weekly Market Recap (Jul 27-31): Bulls Win a Volatile Week, but Follow-Through Is the Real Test

Fri, 31 Jul 2026 21:00:06 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where momentum meets discipline. My mission is to arm you with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.

Every Friday, I recap the U.S. market through a momentum lens to help you see what’s working and what’s not.

Want to go deeper? Paid subscribers get access to the full momentum framework behind my 30% average annual return since 2019: weekly picks, proprietary tools, and monthly market deep dives.

Subscribe now

`SUMMARY`

Here are this week's highlights and what to look out for next:

1. Performance Recap: a winning week across the equity markets: S&P 500 (1.1%), Nasdaq (1.6%), Dow Jones (1%). Sector leaders: Consumer Cyclical (+6.1%) and Communication Serv. (+1.8%).
2. Momentum Pulse Check: S&P 500’s long-term trend is strong and short-term momentum is mixed. Next resistance: 7,575; support: 7,300.
3. Earnings Update: 304 S&P 500 companies reported Q2 2026 earnings with 85% topping estimates. Q2 earnings growth: +48%, full-year 2026 outlook: +31%.
4. Sentiment Check: CNN Fear & Greed at 43/100 (Fear); VIX was down 13% to 16.
5. Next week’s agenda: Earnings from Palantir, Caterpillar and Eli Lilly. Job report.

📌 My Take:

Mega-cap earnings and the Fed set the stage for what looked to be a wild week of price action, and it definitely didn’t disappoint. The intraday volatility was difficult to navigate at times, but in the end, the bulls came out on top and finished the week with a solid gain.

The price action later in the week suggests that a low may be forming, but in this kind of market, follow-through is what really matters. We’ve now seen two consecutive days of gains, which is a good start, but we need to see that momentum continue into next week.

Friday also saw the S&P 500 reclaim its 21-day EMA, which is my favorite short-term moving average. However, after so many failed breakout attempts over the past two months, I think the real test will be whether the index can push to a new all-time high. That would be the confirmation I’m looking for that this prolonged sideways phase is finally behind us.

`PERFORMANCE RECAP`

1. S&P 500 Sector Breakdown

This week: 4 of the 11 sectors advanced. Consumer Cyclical (6.1%) was the best performer, while Utilities (-4.2%) was the weakest.

Year-to-date: 9 sectors are positive. Energy (33.2 %) is the leader, while Communication Serv. (-8.1%) is the laggard.

2. S&P 500 Movers: Top & Worst Performers

Over the last five trading days, 57% of S&P 500 stocks closed higher.

Top Performers:

$CTSH (Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation): 21.8%
$MSFT (Microsoft Corporation): 21.8%
$GRMN (Garmin Ltd.): 20.9%
$WDAY (Workday, Inc.): 18.5%
$CHTR (Charter Communications, Inc.): 17.6%

Worst Performers:

$NXPI (NXP Semiconductors N.V.): -14.9%
$SNDK (Sandisk Corporation): -15.4%
$VRT (Vertiv Holdings, LLC): -16.8%
$CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.): -20.8%
$LII (Lennox International, Inc.): -23.1%

3. S&P 500 Movers: New 1-Year Highs & Lows

This week, 75 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 9 stocks fell to new lows.Financials stood out, contributing 28 of this week’s new highs.

Notable new 52-week highs:

$AAPL (Apple Inc.)
$JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co.)
$V (Visa Inc.)
$JNJ (Johnson & Johnson)
$ABBV (AbbVie Inc.)

Notable new 52-week lows:

$TSLA (Tesla, Inc.)
$ORCL (Oracle Corporation)
$UBER (Uber Technologies, Inc.)
$CMCSA (Comcast Corporation)
$LHX (L3Harris Technologies, Inc.)

📌 My take:
Despite the elevated volatility, it was a broadly positive week beneath the surface, with the number of new 52-week highs rising again. That's an encouraging sign for market breadth, but the key now is confirmation. I want to see that strength carry over into next week.

`MOMENTUM PULSE CHECK`

1. S&P 500 Pulse Check

(1) Performance: mostly positive short-term performance, and trading at short distance form 1-year high.

1-month performance: +0.2%
3-month performance: +3.9%
Distance from 52-week high: -1.7%

(2) Breadth: positive breadth reading.

Breadth measures how many stocks are joining the move. Extreme readings (>80% or <20%) often signal overbought/oversold conditions and serve as early warning signs of a trend reversal.

% of stocks above 200-day moving average: 66% (up from 65% last week)
% of stocks above 20-day moving average: 53% (down from 55% last week)

(3) Trends: positive long-term trend, but mixed short-term momentum.

I analyze trend strength using exponential moving averages (EMAs) and score them on a 1-5 scale. A score of 3+ indicates a healthy trend worth riding.

Weekly chart (long-term/position):

Strong Uptrend ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐, Status: Stable

Daily chart (mid-term/swing trade):

Sideways ⭐⭐☆☆☆, Status: Stable

4) Key levels:

Critical price zones that either confirm the current trend or warn of a potential reversal.

Support (downside zones to watch)

7,050 (–5.9%)
7,240 (–3.3%)
7,300 (-2.5%)

Resistance (upside hurdles)

7,575 (+1.1%)
7,620 (+1.7%)
7,700 (+2.8%)

📌 My take:
Sideways price action continues, but I maintain a bullish bias as long as the long-term trend remains strong and market breadth stays constructive. That said, the market still needs to break decisively out of this two-month trading range before I can have confidence in the next short-term directional move.

2. Momentum Deep Dive of the Week

Each week, I select a specific theme and run the entire framework to pinpoint where the momentum lies.

This week, the theme is the Market Segments. The momentum picture remains cleanly split, with equities still in an uptrend while metals, crypto, and Treasuries remain in downtrends. The equity consolidation that started in June has stretched into July, but the uptrend is holding so far. That said, the marked slowdown of momentum in Nasdaq100 gets me cautious here.

3. Stock Analysis of the Week

I selected a name with recently reported earnings and ran it through the full Momentum Pulse Check to assess the implications for long-term positions. This week: Alphabet ($GOOG).

My View → HOLD

There’s no denying that momentum has cooled significantly, and price is now at a key juncture as it battles around the 30-week EMA, my line in the sand for the long-term trend. I’d like to see price reclaim and hold comfortably above this level, with the 30-week EMA starting to curl higher again. That would give me much greater confidence that the recent period of weak price action has run its course.

The full breakdown (trend score, key levels, and implications) is available in this Substack Note.

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`ECONOMIC & EARNINGS REPORTS`

1. Economic Reports

The Fed meeting was undoubtedly the main event of the week. As widely expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. However, the meeting revealed growing dissent among policymakers, with three members voting for a rate hike, highlighting increasing divisions over the inflation outlook and the appropriate path for monetary policy.

Key reports:

Fed Interest Rate Decision: Actual: 3.75%, Forecast: 3.75%, Previous: 3.75%
GDP (QoQ) (Q2): Actual: 1.5%, Forecast: 2.1%, Previous: 2.1%
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun): Actual: 0.1%, Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.3%
Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jun): Actual: 3.3%, Forecast: 3.3%, Previous: 3.4%

2. Earnings Outlook

Q2 2026 Earnings: S&P 500 earnings expected to grow +48% year-over-year (+44% when excluding Energy).
2026 Full-Year Outlook: Consensus forecasts +31% growth, largely above the 10-year average of +9 %.
Analyst Revisions: 64% of all revisions in the past month have been upward.
Valuation: Forward 4-quarter P/E ratio stands at 19.9, above both the 5-year and 10-year historical averages.

3. Earnings Season Recap

Out of the 304 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 2026 earnings, 85% exceeded EPS expectations, above the four-quarter average of 80% and above the historical average of 67%.

Below are some notable companies that reported last week, along with their EPS/revenue performance vs. estimates and weekly stock returns.

One highlight: Microsoft ($MSFT). Microsoft rallied because robust Azure cloud expansion and strong Copilot demand proved its AI investments are driving real growth. Stable capital spending and upbeat forward revenue guidance further reassured confident investors.The stock gained 22% last week.

📌 My take:
Dissent within the Fed over the possibility of a future rate hike weighed on sentiment following the FOMC meeting. However, strong earnings from Microsoft ($MSFT) and Amazon ($AMZN) helped reverse the mood and lifted the broader market into the end of the week.

MARKET SENTIMENT

1. VIX (Volatility Index)

Current reading: 16.1, a low value, and down 13% from last Friday.

2. CNN Fear & Greed Index

This index combines seven market indicators to score investor sentiment from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed).

Current reading is 43 (Fear), up from 39 a week ago.

3. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator

Current reading: 9.6 an extreme bullish signal, and typically a contrarian “sell” signal.

📌 My take:
Volatility retreated to a relatively low VIX reading of 16 by the end of the week, but that hardly does justice to the wild intraday price swings we experienced. Meanwhile, the CNN Fear & Greed Index remains in Fear territory, suggesting sentiment has yet to fully recover. For now, I don't see an all-clear signal just yet.

`THE WEEK AHEAD`

1. Economic Calendar

The July jobs report is expected to be the biggest market-moving event of the week and could shape investor sentiment heading into August.

Key economic releases:

ISM Manufacturing PMI (July): Previous: 53.3
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (July): Previous: 54.0
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (July): Previous: 0.3%
Nonfarm Payrolls (July): Previous: 57K
Unemployment Rate (July): Previous: 4.2%

2. Earnings Calendar

The earnings season continues next week, with 136 S&P 500 companies set to report their quarterly results.

3. Earnings Watchlist

Below are notable stocks reporting earnings next week, along with my Momentum Pulse Check snapshot and implied volatility for the upcoming week.

In particular, I will keep a close eye on Palantir ($PLTR). Its upcoming earnings report is a critical test for its premium valuation and serves as a major bellwether for the broader AI and software sectors.

📌 My take:
Another important week of earnings lies ahead, with several key AI and software companies set to report. I'll also be keeping a close eye on the U.S. jobs report, which is the week's biggest macro catalyst.

`COMMUNITY SPOTLIGHT`

Each week, I highlight another Substack publication that offers valuable insights, fresh perspectives, or a helpful approach. This week, I’m pleased to feature

Joseph writes about private companies that few people are covering. He spends his free time reading through random articles and research papers from the 1990s. This article on Saronic is one of the fastest growing defense tech companies and the company behind the autonomous rescue of two pilots in the Strait of Hormuz. Here is the link to that post.

Here is the link to one of his post:

The Private Ledger

The Breakdown: Saronic

On June 8th, Iran shot down a U.S. Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz. Within two hours, the pilots were rescued…

a month ago · 53 likes · 26 comments · The Private Ledger

CONCLUSION

That’s a wrap for this recap! I spend hours every week structuring this recap so you can quickly find the insights you need, week after week.

You enjoyed this recap and want the actionable side? Paid subscribers get access to my weekly Momentum Picks, with more than 1,000% return since 2019, or 30% per year.

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Happy investing,

My Weekly Stock,

DISCLAIMER

Momentum Pulse Check: Which Segment Has The Best Trend? (Aug 2026 Edition)

Wed, 29 Jul 2026 13:33:44 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock.

Once a month, I step back from weekly trades to assess the bigger picture: where momentum is strengthening, where it’s fading, and what that means for the weeks ahead.

This is my Momentum Deep Dive, powered by my proprietary Momentum Pulse Check tool. I use it to monitor trends and market regimes across key segments, sectors, and individual stocks.

Paid subscribers have full access to my app and can run any top US stock or ETF through it directly.

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Summary

This month’s deep dive covers two things: the broader momentum landscape across key market segments, and an update on my Macro ETF Portfolio:

Momentum Snapshot
Equities: Strong uptrend across the board, although momentum is slowing down, especially for Nasdaq.
Commodities: Oil back in uptrend but volatile. Precious metals in strong downtrend.
Crypto: Bitcoin and Ethereum in strong downtrend, but attempting a bounce.
Treasuries: in downtrend.
US Dollar: in uptrend.
Macro ETF Portfolio
94% invested across 14 positions. Last month: 1 exit.
Cumulative return: +42% since October 2023
Top performers: Semiconductors ETF ($SMH, +107%) and Emerging Markets ETF ($EEM, +37%).

📌 My Take:

The momentum picture remains cleanly split, with equities still in an uptrend while metals, crypto, and Treasuries remain in downtrends. The equity consolidation that started in June has stretched into July, but the uptrend is holding so far. That said, the marked slowdown of momentum in Nasdaq100 gets me cautious here. I tend to see it as a leading indicator, so I will be keeping a close eye on it in case it signals that this consolidation is morphing into a deeper pullback.

No major changes to my Macro ETF portfolio as a result. I remain overweight equities and continue to look for the next key themes. Metals and crypto are on my watchlist, but my method is to wait for confirmed renewed strength before acting. That may sound late to most, and I will certainly not catch the exact bottom. But I would rather avoid failed breakout attempts and position for the actual strong multi-month trends. Patience is the word, both on what I currently hold and what I am looking to add next.

How this analysis is built

This combination gives me a holistic view of each segment: not just where price has been, but how healthy the trend is and where it may face pressure.

This framework is designed to do one thing well: separate clean, tradable momentum from noise.

It doesn’t predict markets or aim to catch exact tops or bottoms. Instead, it helps identify where trends are working, where they’re weakening, and where caution is warranted.

Momentum Pulse Check

$SPY - S&P 500 ETF

Momentum Score: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ | Strong Uptrend - Outlook: Stable

Key Levels

Support: $720
Resistance: $770

📌 My Rating: HOLD
Consolidation is stretching into a second month, but the index is still holding above its 9-week EMA. I am closely watching the MACD, which has just registered a bearish crossover, as this consolidation could morph into a deeper pullback toward the 30-week EMA.

$QQQ - Nasdaq ETF

Momentum Score: ⭐️⭐️⭐️☆☆ | Uptrend - Outlook: Cooling

Key Levels

Support: $640
Resistance: $725

📌 My Rating: HOLD
The scenario I outlined for the S&P 500 is essentially what the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has already gone through. The pullback was deeper, bringing price all the way down to its 30-week EMA. While the longer-term uptrend remains intact, I'd ideally like to see QQQ hold above both this long-term trendline, then build a range from there before attempting its next leg higher.

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$IWM - Russell 2000 ETF (Small Caps)

Momentum Score: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ | Strong Uptrend - Outlook: Stable

Key Levels

Support: $278
Resistance: $300

📌 My Rating: HOLD
Somewhat similar price action to the S&P 500, but with an even milder pullback. This space remains my favorite equity segment in terms of both momentum and long-term potential.

Trading Update: +37% Year-to-Date. My Picks for Next Week Inside

Sun, 26 Jul 2026 08:00:22 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock.

A new week is around the corner, which means one thing for me: preparing my trading plan.

Each week, my algo selects 3 momentum picks to trade from Monday open till Friday close.

The result? 964% return since 2019, or 32% average annual return and outperforming the S&P 500 by 5×.

Want these picks delivered straight to your inbox, plus my entry/exit rules and my complete framework? Upgrade your subscription and get full access.

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`SUMMARY`

Here are the top highlights for my weekly momentum strategy:

Last week: -3.3%. All 3 picks stopped out early.
2026 YTD: +42% | Since 2019: +964%, 32% CAGR. 57% Hit rate.
Week ahead: 2 longs (Dow30, Large Cap), 1 short (Nasdaq100).

📌 Trading week reflections:

All three picks were stopped out early, resulting in a sixth consecutive weekly loss and my worst 12-week stretch since launching the strategy. It has clearly been a very difficult environment for momentum trading, with intra-week volatility and rapid sector rotation making it exceptionally challenging to stay in positions long enough for trends to develop.

On the positive side, my execution has remained disciplined despite the constant temptation to go off script or revenge trade. The market is challenging enough without compounding the problem with execution mistakes. At this point, my focus is simply on trusting the process, avoiding impulsive decisions, and waiting for market conditions to become more favorable.

1. My Strategy

After years of research, I’ve developed a winning momentum strategy that cuts through market noise. If you’re new here or want a deeper dive into my strategy, check out my detailed post below:

Since these picks are often well into their up (or down) trends, I use tight stop-losses to manage risk as reversals can be swift.

The end result? 3 momentum picks per week I hold from Monday open to Friday close. Rule-based, no second-guessing.

2. Performance Update

Since 2019, my momentum picks have delivered a cumulative return of +964% (with stop-loss rules applied), roughly 5× the S&P 500 over the same period. That translates into a 32% CAGR.

At the weekly level, the strategy has a 57% hit rate. The maximum drawdown is -19%, and the worst rolling 12-week return is -15%.

Last week, I traded 3 longs:

Dow 30 – AAPL: -2.’%
Large Cap – ORCL: -4.0%
Nasdaq – PANW : -4.0%

The average return for the week was -3.3%, bringing my 2026 performance to +37%.

My 3 picks were stopped out early, resulting in a sixth consecutive weekly loss and my worst 12-week stretch since I started this strategy. It's clearly been a very difficult environment for momentum trading.

From 2019 through 2024, the strategy was based solely on one pick from the Dow 30 index. In 2025, I expanded to include a pick from Large Caps, and in January 2026, one from the Nasdaq 100 index.

While I have backtested results since 2022 for the additional watchlists, I only include live, publicly published picks in the official performance record.

Returns are calculated from Monday’s market open to Friday’s close, unless a stop-loss is triggered. Performance is compounded weekly.

Paid subscribers have access to all the details behind the picks.

3. My Picks for the Week Ahead

Weekly Market Recap (Jul 20-24): Range-Bound Markets Still Searching for Direction. Will Tech Earnings and the Fed Be the Catalyst?

Fri, 24 Jul 2026 21:02:02 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where momentum meets discipline. My mission is to arm you with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.

Every Friday, I recap the U.S. market through a momentum lens to help you see what’s working and what’s not.

Want to go deeper? Paid subscribers get access to the full momentum framework behind my 30% average annual return since 2019: weekly picks, proprietary tools, and monthly market deep dives.

Subscribe now

`SUMMARY`

Here are this week's highlights and what to look out for next:

1. Performance Recap: a red week across the equity markets: S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq (-2.1%), Dow Jones (-0.4%). Sector leaders: Energy (+3.4%) and Utilities (+2.5%).
2. Momentum Pulse Check: S&P 500’s long-term trend is strong and short-term momentum is mixed. Next resistance: 7,515; support: 7,375.
3. Earnings Update: 135 S&P 500 companies reported Q2 2026 earnings with 86% topping estimates. Q2 earnings growth: +26%, full-year 2026 outlook: +27%.
4. Sentiment Check: CNN Fear & Greed at 39/100 (Fear); VIX was down 1% to 19.
5. Next week’s agenda: Earnings from Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon. Fed meeting, GDP and inflation data.

📌 My Take:

The S&P 500 closed the week with a small loss and is still stuck in its 2-month trading range. And once again, the headline weekly performance hardly does justice to the underlying volatility and intra-week swings.

For now, the long-term trend remains healthy, but I see some early signs of slowing momentum on the longer-term time frame as well. I remain cautious here until the market finally breaks out of this range.

Next week will be massive with 4 of the Mag 7 reporting earnings and the Fed meeting. That could provide enough catalysts to finally force the market’s hand and give us a clear short-term direction.

`PERFORMANCE RECAP`

1. S&P 500 Sector Breakdown

This week: 8 of the 11 sectors advanced. Energy (3.4%) was the best performer, while Consumer Cyclical (-5.2%) was the weakest.

Year-to-date: 9 sectors are positive. Energy (33.3 %) is the leader, while Communication Serv. (-9.7%) is the laggard.

2. S&P 500 Movers: Top & Worst Performers

Over the last five trading days, 52% of S&P 500 stocks closed higher.

Top Performers:

$SMCI (Super Micro Computer, Inc.): 24.5%
$WAB (Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation): 15.4%
$LMT (Lockheed Martin Corporation): 14.5%
$DLR (Digital Realty Trust, Inc.): 14.5%
$IP (International Paper Company): 12.2%

Worst Performers:

$CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.): -10.5%
$MSCI (MSCI Inc.): -12.4%
$MRNA (Moderna, Inc.): -12.5%
$ROL (Rollins, Inc.): -14.5%
$TSLA (Tesla, Inc.): -17.8%

3. S&P 500 Movers: New 1-Year Highs & Lows

This week, 28 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 15 stocks fell to new lows. Financials stood out, contributing 6 of this week’s new highs.

Notable new 52-week highs:

$PM (Philip Morris International Inc)
$UNP (Union Pacific Corporation)
$WELL (Welltower Inc.)
$CVS (CVS Health Corporation)
$GD (General Dynamics Corporation)

Notable new 52-week lows:

$ORCL (Oracle Corporation)
$NFLX (Netflix, Inc.)
$IBM (International Business Machines Corporation)
$MCD (McDonald’s Corporation)
$PEP (PepsiCo, Inc.)

📌 My take:
Another modest loss for the major indices masked what was otherwise a broadly positive week beneath the surface. Most sectors finished higher, but weakness in the Consumer Cyclical and Communication Services sectors—driven largely by the post-earnings selloff in Tesla ($TSLA) and Alphabet ($GOOGL)—weighed heavily on the headline index performance.

`MOMENTUM PULSE CHECK`

1. S&P 500 Pulse Check

(1) Performance: positive short-term performance, and trading at short distance form 1-year high.

1-month performance: +0.8%
3-month performance: +4.3%
Distance from 52-week high: -2.7%

(2) Breadth: positive breadth reading.

Breadth measures how many stocks are joining the move. Extreme readings (>80% or <20%) often signal overbought/oversold conditions and serve as early warning signs of a trend reversal.

% of stocks above 200-day moving average: 65% (down from 66% last week)
% of stocks above 20-day moving average: 55% (down from 58% last week)

(3) Trends: positive long-term trend, but mixed short-term momentum.

I analyze trend strength using exponential moving averages (EMAs) and score them on a 1-5 scale. A score of 3+ indicates a healthy trend worth riding.

Weekly chart (long-term/position):

Strong Uptrend ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐, Status: Cooling

Daily chart (mid-term/swing trade):

Sideways ⭐⭐☆☆☆, Status: Stable

4) Key levels:

Critical price zones that either confirm the current trend or warn of a potential reversal.

Support (downside zones to watch)

7,050 (–4.8%)
7,240 (–2.3%)
7,375 (-0.4%)

Resistance (upside hurdles)

7,515 (+1.4%)
7,620 (+2.9%)
7,700 (+3.9%)

📌 My take:
Sideways price action continues in the short term, but signs of slowing momentum are now beginning to appear on the longer-term time frame as well. The bulls need to step in soon, or this consolidation could evolve into a more meaningful pullback.

2. Momentum Deep Dive of the Week

Each week, I select a specific theme and run the entire framework to pinpoint where the momentum lies.

This week, the theme is the S&P500 Sectors. Markets have been consolidating for several weeks now, and sure enough, some names, especially in Tech, have seen steep pullbacks. But beneath the surface, the momentum across sectors is quite healthy and broadening beyond Tech, as cyclicals are showing strength.

EMA 30\n\n✅ Both EMAs rising\n\n= Strong trend\n\nHere’s what my momentum model shows:\n\n1) Uptrend:\n\n\n\n\n\nFinancials ($XLF): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nHealthcare ($XLV): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nIndustrials ($XLI): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nReal Estate ($XLRE): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nTechnology ($XLK): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\nEnergy ($XLE): ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆\n\n\n\nUtilities ($XLU): ⭐⭐⭐☆☆\n\n2) Sideways:\n\n\n\n\n\nMaterials ($XLB): ⭐⭐⭐☆☆\n\n\n\nConsumer Defensive ($XLP): ⭐⭐☆☆☆\n\n3) Downtrend:\n\n\n\n\n\nConsumer Cyclicals ($XLY): ⭐⭐☆☆☆\n\n\n\nCommunication Services ($XLC): ☆☆☆☆☆\n\nIn short: Markets have been consolidating for several weeks now, and sure enough, some names, especially in Tech, have seen steep pullbacks. But beneath the surface, the momentum across sectors is quite healthy and broadening beyond Tech, as cyclicals are showing strength.\n\nWhat is you favorite Sector at the moment?","body_json":{"attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"content":[{"text":"Momentum Pulse Check: Which Segment Has the Best Trend?","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"text":"I evaluated the trend strength of","type":"text"},{"text":" the 11 S&P500 sectors,","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"},{"text":" using my proprietary \"","type":"text"},{"text":"Momentum Pulse Check\"","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"},{"text":", which scores trends based on the 9- and 30-week EMAs (out of 5 stars):","type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"text":"✅ Price above both EMAs","type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"text":"✅ EMA 9 > EMA 30","type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"text":"✅ Both EMAs rising","type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"text":"= Strong trend","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"text":"Here’s what my momentum model shows:","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"text":"1) Uptrend:","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"content":[{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Financials ($XLF): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Healthcare ($XLV): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Industrials ($XLI): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Real Estate ($XLRE): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Technology ($XLK): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Energy ($XLE): ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"content":[{"type":"text","text":"Utilities ($XLU): ⭐⭐⭐☆☆"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"listItem"}],"type":"bulletList"},{"content":[{"text":"2) Sideways:","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Materials ($XLB): ⭐⭐⭐☆☆"}]}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Consumer Defensive ($XLP): ⭐⭐☆☆☆"}]}],"type":"listItem"}],"type":"bulletList"},{"content":[{"text":"3) Downtrend:","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Consumer Cyclicals ($XLY): ⭐⭐☆☆☆"}]}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Communication Services ($XLC): ☆☆☆☆☆"}]}],"type":"listItem"}],"type":"bulletList"},{"content":[{"marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text","text":"In short: "},{"type":"text","text":"Markets have been consolidating for several weeks now, and sure enough, some names, especially in Tech, have seen steep pullbacks. But beneath the surface, the momentum across sectors is quite healthy and broadening beyond Tech, as cyclicals are showing strength."}],"type":"paragraph"},{"content":[{"marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text","text":"What is you favorite Sector at the moment?"}],"type":"paragraph"}],"type":"doc"},"restacks":5,"reaction_count":22,"children_count":1,"attachments":[{"id":"13de9637-5cca-4d62-b9cd-2edd906a8801","type":"image","imageUrl":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fedfc090-6d5b-4e15-9367-b56837f862e2_2872x1308.png","imageWidth":2872,"imageHeight":1308,"explicit":false}],"name":"My Weekly Stock","user_id":25966035,"photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ImaI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa22d8d4f-ef92-42b7-8b6f-e7ce0f4142a6_500x500.png","user_bestseller_tier":100,"userStatus":{"bestsellerTier":100,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":100},"subscriber":null}},"source":null,"forumChannel":null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder">

3. Stock Analysis of the Week

I selected a name with recently reported earnings and ran it through the full Momentum Pulse Check to assess the implications for long-term positions. This week: Netflix ($NFLX).

My View → PASS

Netflix remains, by and large, stuck in its downtrend, trading below a declining trend line and now more than 45% below its 1-year high.
The move to the downside is getting somewhat extended, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a short-term bounce. But unless a bounce can reclaim key trend lines, starting with the 9-week EMA, I am looking for further downside.

The full breakdown (trend score, key levels, and implications) is available in this Substack Note.

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`ECONOMIC & EARNINGS REPORTS`

1. Economic Reports

It was a relatively calm week on the economic front, with the market’s attention focused more on geopolitical developments, particularly their impact on oil prices.

Key reports:

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul): Actual: 53.8 | Forecast: 54.4 | Previous: 53.9
S&P Global Services PMI (Jul): Actual: 53.6 | Forecast: 51.3 | Previous: 51.2

2. Earnings Outlook

Q2 2026 Earnings: S&P 500 earnings expected to grow +26% year-over-year (+22% when excluding Energy).
2026 Full-Year Outlook: Consensus forecasts +27% growth, largely above the 10-year average of +9 %.
Analyst Revisions: 60% of all revisions in the past month have been upward.
Valuation: Forward 4-quarter P/E ratio stands at 20.1, above both the 5-year and 10-year historical averages.

3. Earnings Season Recap

Out of the 135 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 2026 earnings, 86% exceeded EPS expectations, above the four-quarter average of 80% and above the historical average of 67%.

Below are some notable companies that reported last week, along with their EPS/revenue performance vs. estimates and weekly stock returns.

One highlight: Tesla ($TSLA). The company reported earnings that fell short of estimates. Margin pressure and high cash burn due to AI-related investments further weighed on sentiment. The stock lost 18% last week.

📌 My take:
Earnings season has gotten off to a solid start overall, but sharp post-earnings selloffs in heavyweight names such as Tesla ($TSLA) and Alphabet ($GOOGL) weighed heavily on the broader indices this week.

MARKET SENTIMENT

1. VIX (Volatility Index)

Current reading: 18.6, a medium value, and down 1% from last Friday.

2. CNN Fear & Greed Index

This index combines seven market indicators to score investor sentiment from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed).

Current reading is 39 (Fear), up from 37 a week ago.

3. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator

Current reading: 9.6 an extreme bullish signal, and typically a contrarian “sell” signal.

📌 My take:
The CNN Fear & Greed Index remains firmly in Fear, while elevated volatility continues to define this market, driving the large intraday and intra-week swings we've seen in recent weeks. For now, there is still little evidence to suggest this consolidation phase is nearing its end.

`THE WEEK AHEAD`

1. Economic Calendar

It will be a packed week for markets, with a fresh GDP update, the Core PCE Price Index and, of course, the second FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

While markets widely expect interest rates to remain unchanged, the real focus will once again be on the Fed’s forward guidance.

2. Earnings Calendar

The earnings season continues next week, with 177 S&P 500 companies set to report their quarterly results.

3. Earnings Watchlist

Below are notable stocks reporting earnings next week, along with my Momentum Pulse Check snapshot and implied volatility for the upcoming week.

In particular, I will keep a close eye on Microsoft ($MSFT). Its report will be especially interesting, as the company sits at the intersection of concerns over AI capex and the need to demonstrate actual software monetization. Options market is pricing a 7% move next week.

📌 My take:
Next week has more than enough catalysts to finally push the index out of its month-long trading range. With four of the Magnificent 7 reporting earnings, a Fed meeting, and several critical macroeconomic reports on the calendar, volatility is likely to pick up.

`COMMUNITY SPOTLIGHT`

Each week, I highlight another Substack publication that offers valuable insights, fresh perspectives, or a helpful approach. This week, I’m pleased to feature

He is in his 30s and has built a $1.5M+ portfolio through a simple formula: advancing up the corporate ladder while investing seriously in high-conviction value stocks and letting compound growth do the heavy lifting.

On this Substack, he writes about high-conviction AI infrastructure and value theses, along with weekly market intel and actionable entry points.

This is his personal notebook for staying sharp with his investments, and he is more than happy to share the journey with his audience so we can stay sharp and stay invested together.

Here is the link to one of his post:

my.stock.research

5 Stocks in Advanced Packaging Powering GPUs and Memory

Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to stay updated with my latest deep dives, market analysis, and investment ideas…

2 months ago · 9 likes · 2 comments · my.stock.research

CONCLUSION

That’s a wrap for this recap! I spend hours every week structuring this recap so you can quickly find the insights you need, week after week.

You enjoyed this recap and want the actionable side? Paid subscribers get access to my weekly Momentum Picks, with more than 1,000% return since 2019, or 30% per year.

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Happy investing,

My Weekly Stock,

DISCLAIMER

Trading Update: +42% Year-to-Date. My Picks for Next Week Inside

Sun, 19 Jul 2026 08:01:24 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock.

A new week is around the corner, which means one thing for me: preparing my trading plan.

Each week, my algo selects 3 momentum picks to trade from Monday open till Friday close.

The result? 1,000% return since 2019, or 32% average annual return and outperforming the S&P 500 by 5×.

Want these picks delivered straight to your inbox, plus my entry/exit rules and my complete framework? Upgrade your subscription and get full access.

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`SUMMARY`

Here are the top highlights for my weekly momentum strategy:

Last week: -2.2%. 1 winner and 2 losing picks.
2026 YTD: +42% | Since 2019: +1,000%, 32% CAGR. 57% Hit rate.
Week ahead: 3 longs: 1 Dow30, 1 Large Cap, 1 Nasdaq100.

📌 Trading week reflections:

My pick in $AAPL and disciplined stop losses prevented what could have been a much worse week, but that was still not enough to avoid a fifth consecutive weekly loss. This is clearly not the type of market environment where my momentum strategy performs best.

For the week ahead, I’m sticking with three long positions in Tech, although across different themes. I expect volatility to remain elevated, particularly around Alphabet’s earnings. Once again, risk management will be critical, and options are especially useful for me in this environment: I can define my maximum risk upfront while maintaining meaningful upside exposure if the market snaps back.

1. My Strategy

After years of research, I’ve developed a winning momentum strategy that cuts through market noise. If you’re new here or want a deeper dive into my strategy, check out my detailed post below:

Since these picks are often well into their up (or down) trends, I use tight stop-losses to manage risk as reversals can be swift.

The end result? 3 momentum picks per week I hold from Monday open to Friday close. Rule-based, no second-guessing.

2. Performance Update

Since 2019, my momentum picks have delivered a cumulative return of +1,000% (with stop-loss rules applied), roughly 5× the S&P 500 over the same period. That translates into a 32% CAGR.

At the weekly level, the strategy has a 57% hit rate. The maximum drawdown is -19%, and the worst rolling 12-week return is -14%.

Last week, I traded 3 longs:

Dow 30 – AAPL: +5.3%
Large Cap – ORCL: -8.0%
Nasdaq – AMD : -4.0%

The average return for the week was -2.2%, bringing my 2026 performance to +42%.

Grateful for Apple ($AAPL) and disciplined stop losses, which prevented what could have been a much worse week. Still, it wasn't enough to avoid a fifth consecutive weekly loss. I know this isn't the type of market environment where my strategy tends to perform well, so for now the focus remains on damage control, particularly through disciplined execution and prudent position sizing when trading options.

From 2019 through 2024, the strategy was based solely on one pick from the Dow 30 index. In 2025, I expanded to include a pick from Large Caps, and in January 2026, one from the Nasdaq 100 index.

While I have backtested results since 2022 for the additional watchlists, I only include live, publicly published picks in the official performance record.

Returns are calculated from Monday’s market open to Friday’s close, unless a stop-loss is triggered. Performance is compounded weekly.

Paid subscribers have access to all the details behind the picks.

3. My Picks for the Week Ahead

Weekly Market Recap (Jul 13-17): Choppy Action Continues as Tech Selloff Sends the Index Lower. Are We Near a Tipping Point?

Fri, 17 Jul 2026 21:09:51 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where momentum meets discipline. My mission is to arm you with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.

Every Friday, I recap the U.S. market through a momentum lens to help you see what’s working and what’s not.

Want to go deeper? Paid subscribers get access to the full momentum framework behind my 30% average annual return since 2019: weekly picks, proprietary tools, and monthly market deep dives.

Subscribe now

`SUMMARY`

Here are this week's highlights and what to look out for next:

1. Performance Recap: a red week across the equity markets: S&P 500 (-1.6%), Nasdaq (-2.9%), Dow Jones (-0.9%). Sector leaders: Energy (+4.7%) and Real Estate (+2.2%).
2. Momentum Pulse Check: S&P 500’s long-term trend is strong and short-term momentum is mixed. Next resistance: 7,620; support: 7,430.
3. Earnings Update: 49 S&P 500 companies reported Q2 2026 earnings with 90% topping estimates. Q2 earnings growth: +26%, full-year 2026 outlook: +27%.
4. Sentiment Check: CNN Fear & Greed at 38/100 (Fear); VIX was up 25% to 19.
5. Next week’s agenda: Earnings from Tesla and Alphabet and JPMorgan. PMI data.

📌 My Take:

The headline index performance was again somewhat misleading this week. The underlying breadth was constructive, with the majority of the index components advancing, but renewed weakness in Technology, down 5.5%, was enough to drag the broader index lower.

There are reasons to be more cautious in the short term. The S&P 500 lost its 21-day EMA on Friday, volatility jumped sharply, and sentiment slipped back into Fear territory. None of this changes the strong long-term trend yet, but it could open the door to further weakness as the index continues to consolidate its massive Apr-May rally.

Next week brings the first major test of earnings season, with Tesla and Alphabet reporting amid renewed concerns over AI valuations. Their results could determine whether the index stabilizes and challenges the top of its range again, or whether the current pullback has further to run. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East also remain an important wildcard.

`PERFORMANCE RECAP`

1. S&P 500 Sector Breakdown

This week: 5 of the 11 sectors advanced. Energy (4.7%) was the best performer, while Technology (-5.5%) was the weakest.

Year-to-date: 9 sectors are positive. Energy (29 %) is the leader, while Communication Serv. (-6%) is the laggard.

2. S&P 500 Movers: Top & Worst Performers

Over the last five trading days, 55% of S&P 500 stocks closed higher.

Top Performers:

$PYPL (PayPal Holdings, Inc.): 22.1%
$CTAS (Cintas Corporation): 13.8%
$VLO (Valero Energy Corporation): 10.3%
$MPC (Marathon Petroleum Corporation): 10.2%
$PANW (Palo Alto Networks, Inc.): 10.1%

Worst Performers:

$CIEN (Ciena Corporation): -18.7%
$GLW (Corning Incorporated): -19%
$MRVL (Marvell Technology, Inc.): -20%
$IBM (International Business Machines Corporation): -26%
$SNDK (Sandisk Corporation): -29.3%

3. S&P 500 Movers: New 1-Year Highs & Lows

This week, 55 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 12 stocks fell to new lows. Financials stood out, contributing 24 of this week’s new highs.

Notable new 52-week highs:

$AAPL (Apple Inc.)
$JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co.)
$V (Visa Inc.)
$BAC (Bank of America Corporation)
$UNH (UnitedHealth Group Incorporated)

Notable new 52-week lows:

$ORCL (Oracle Corporation)
$IBM (International Business Machines Corporation)
$MCD (McDonald’s Corporation)
$ISRG (Intuitive Surgical, Inc.)
$ORLY (O’Reilly Automotive, Inc.)

📌 My take:
Another week where the headline index performance was somewhat misleading, as the average stock finished higher and new highs again significantly outpaced new lows. Underlying breadth remained constructive, but renewed weakness in Tech dragged the broader index lower.

`MOMENTUM PULSE CHECK`

1. S&P 500 Pulse Check

(1) Performance: mixed short-term performance, but trading at short distance form 1-year high.

1-month performance: -1.0%
3-month performance: +5.9%
Distance from 52-week high: -2.2%

(2) Breadth: positive breadth reading.

Breadth measures how many stocks are joining the move. Extreme readings (>80% or <20%) often signal overbought/oversold conditions and serve as early warning signs of a trend reversal.

% of stocks above 200-day moving average: 66% (down from 65% last week)
% of stocks above 20-day moving average: 58% (down from 62% last week)

(3) Trends: positive long-term trend, but mixed short-term momentum.

I analyze trend strength using exponential moving averages (EMAs) and score them on a 1-5 scale. A score of 3+ indicates a healthy trend worth riding.

Weekly chart (long-term/position):

Strong Uptrend ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐, Status: Stable

Daily chart (mid-term/swing trade):

Sideways ⭐⭐☆☆☆, Status: Stable

4) Key levels:

Critical price zones that either confirm the current trend or warn of a potential reversal.

Support (downside zones to watch)

7,050 (–5.5%)
7,240 (–2.9%)
7,430 (-0.4%)

Resistance (upside hurdles)

7,620 (+2.2%)
7,700 (+3.2%)

📌 My take:
Choppy price action continues in the short term as the index remains range-bound, digesting the strong Q2 rally. That said, I am becoming a bit more cautious after the index lost its 21-day EMA on Friday, which could open the door to further short-term weakness.

2. Momentum Deep Dive of the Week

Each week, I select a specific theme and run the entire framework to pinpoint where the momentum lies.

This week, the theme is the Software. The sector has had a difficult year overall. The one bright spot has been Cybersecurity, which has staged a strong rebound in an otherwise challenged sector. Several names are still stuck in well-defined downtrends, with Oracle ($ORCL) the weakest, trading more than 60% below its 1-year high. ServiceNow ($NOW), Microsoft ($MSFT), Palantir ($PLTR), and Salesforce ($CRM) are all beginning to show early signs of improvement, which is encouraging. Still, warming up from a deep downtrend is a long way from a confirmed recovery.

EMA 30\n\n✅ Both EMAs rising\n\n= Strong trend\n\nHere’s what my momentum model shows:\n\n1) Strong Uptrend:\n\n\n\n\n\n$CRWD (CrowdStrike): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\n$PANW (Palo Alto Networks): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\n$CDNS (Cadence Design): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n2) Uptrend:\n\n\n\n\n\n$ADP (Automatic Data Processing): ⭐⭐⭐☆☆\n\n3) Strong Downtrend:\n\n\n\n\n\n$APP (Applovin): ⭐☆☆☆☆\n\n\n\n$NOW (ServiceNow): ⭐☆☆☆☆\n\n\n\n$MSFT (Microsoft): ⭐☆☆☆☆\n\n\n\n$PLTR (Palantir): ⭐☆☆☆☆\n\n\n\n$CRM (Salesforce): ⭐☆☆☆☆\n\n\n\n$ORCL (Oracle): ☆☆☆☆☆\n\nIn short: Software has had a difficult year overall. The one bright spot has been Cybersecurity, which has staged a strong rebound in an otherwise challenged sector. Several names are still stuck in well-defined downtrends, with Oracle ($ORCL) the weakest, trading more than 60% below its 1-year high. ServiceNow ($NOW), Microsoft ($MSFT), Palantir ($PLTR), and Salesforce ($CRM) are all beginning to show early signs of improvement, which is encouraging. Still, warming up from a deep downtrend is a long way from a confirmed recovery.\n\nWhat is you favorite Software name at the moment?","body_json":{"attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Momentum Pulse Check: Which Software Stock Has the Best Trend?","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"I evaluated the trend strength of","type":"text"},{"text":" 10 Software Stocks,","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"},{"text":" using my proprietary \"","type":"text"},{"text":"Momentum Pulse Check\"","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"},{"text":", which scores trends based on the 9- and 30-week EMAs (out of 5 stars):","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"✅ Price above both EMAs","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"✅ EMA 9 > EMA 30","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"✅ Both EMAs rising","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"= Strong trend","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"Here’s what my momentum model shows:","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"1) Strong Uptrend:","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"$CRWD (CrowdStrike): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐"}]}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"$PANW (Palo Alto Networks): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐"}]}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"$CDNS (Cadence Design): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐"}]}],"type":"listItem"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"2) Uptrend:","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"$ADP (Automatic Data Processing): ⭐⭐⭐☆☆"}]}],"type":"listItem"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"3) Strong Downtrend:","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"$APP (Applovin): ⭐☆☆☆☆"}]}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"$NOW (ServiceNow): ⭐☆☆☆☆"}]}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"$MSFT (Microsoft): ⭐☆☆☆☆"}]}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"$PLTR (Palantir): ⭐☆☆☆☆"}]}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"$CRM (Salesforce): ⭐☆☆☆☆"}]}],"type":"listItem"},{"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"$ORCL (Oracle): ☆☆☆☆☆"}]}],"type":"listItem"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"In short: ","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"},{"text":"Software has had a difficult year overall. The one bright spot has been Cybersecurity, which has staged a strong rebound in an otherwise challenged sector. Several names are still stuck in well-defined downtrends, with Oracle ($ORCL) the weakest, trading more than 60% below its 1-year high. ServiceNow ($NOW), Microsoft ($MSFT), Palantir ($PLTR), and Salesforce ($CRM) are all beginning to show early signs of improvement, which is encouraging. Still, warming up from a deep downtrend is a long way from a confirmed recovery.","type":"text"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"text":"What is you favorite Software name at the moment?","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"type":"text"}]}],"type":"doc"},"restacks":1,"reaction_count":14,"children_count":1,"attachments":[{"id":"d4dc0d4c-7a75-43cd-a761-fa0cd01b6c57","type":"image","imageUrl":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/880afdbd-cc08-414e-bf79-1b6f2233fc65_2858x1264.png","imageWidth":2858,"imageHeight":1264,"explicit":false}],"name":"My Weekly Stock","user_id":25966035,"photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ImaI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa22d8d4f-ef92-42b7-8b6f-e7ce0f4142a6_500x500.png","user_bestseller_tier":100,"userStatus":{"bestsellerTier":100,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":100},"subscriber":null}},"source":null,"forumChannel":null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder">

3. Stock Analysis of the Week

I selected a name with recently reported earnings and ran it through the full Momentum Pulse Check to assess the implications for long-term positions. This week: Goldman Sachs ($GS).

My View → HOLD

GS is firing on all cylinders, up 27% in the past quarter, leading the financial sector by a wide margin. It just hit a new record high, a strong sign of strength, which also means no overhead resistance and no drawdown to recover from. This is what a clean, strong uptrend looks like.
That said, price is now 10% above the 9-week EMA, and even in a strong uptrend, that EMA acts like a magnet, inevitably catching up to price. Chasing here means buying into short-term overextension, and the risk/reward isn’t attractive imo.
If you already own it, this is a clear hold. If you don’t own it, patience is the strategy. A pullback towards the 9-week EMA would offer a far better entry without changing the bullish thesis one bit.

The full breakdown (trend score, key levels, and implications) is available in this Substack Note.

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`ECONOMIC & EARNINGS REPORTS`

1. Economic Reports

It was an encouraging week for the macro outlook, with inflation surprising to the downside, with both the CPI and PPI reports came in below expectations.

Key reports:

CPI (MoM) (Jun): Actual: -0.4% | Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.5%
Core CPI (MoM) (Jun): Actual: 0.0% | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%
CPI (YoY) (Jun): Actual: 3.5% | Forecast: 3.8% | Previous: 4.2%
PPI (MoM) (Jun): Actual: -0.3% | Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.6%
Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun): Actual: 0.2% | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 1.0%
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun): Actual: -0.2% | Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 1.0%

2. Earnings Outlook

Q2 2026 Earnings: S&P 500 earnings expected to grow +26% year-over-year (+22% when excluding Energy).
2026 Full-Year Outlook: Consensus forecasts +27% growth, largely above the 10-year average of +9 %.
Analyst Revisions: 60% of all revisions in the past month have been upward.
Valuation: Forward 4-quarter P/E ratio stands at 20.3, above both the 5-year and 10-year historical averages.

3. Earnings Season Recap

Out of the 49 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 2026 earnings, 90% exceeded EPS expectations, above the four-quarter average of 80% and above the historical average of 67%.

Below are some notable companies that reported last week, along with their EPS/revenue performance vs. estimates and weekly stock returns.

One highlight: JPMorgan ($JPM), which hit a new record high after delivering blowout Q2 earnings that comfortably exceeded Wall Street expectations and raising its forward guidance. The stock gained 1% last week.

📌 My take:
A solid start to earnings season and cooler-than-expected inflation data were not enough to offset geopolitical jitters and renewed concerns over elevated AI valuations.

MARKET SENTIMENT

1. VIX (Volatility Index)

Current reading: 18.8, a medium value, and up 25% from last Friday.

2. CNN Fear & Greed Index

This index combines seven market indicators to score investor sentiment from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed).

Current reading is 38 (Fear), down from 46 a week ago.

3. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator

Current reading: 9.6 an extreme bullish signal, and typically a contrarian “sell” signal.

📌 My take:
Short-term sentiment has slipped back into negative territory, with volatility rising sharply last week and the CNN Fear & Greed Index falling back into Fear. It's worth remaining cautious until the current short-term consolidation resolves.

`THE WEEK AHEAD`

1. Economic Calendar

It will be a relatively quiet week on the economic front, with no major reports on the calendar. The main focus will be Friday’s flash PMI readings, which will provide an early look at business activity in both the manufacturing and services sectors and offer fresh insight into the strength of the U.S. economy.

Key reports:

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul): Previous: 53.9
S&P Global Services PMI (Jul): Previous: 51.2
New Home Sales (Jun): Previous: 580K

2. Earnings Calendar

The earnings season is picking up steam next week, with 83 S&P 500 companies set to report their quarterly results.

3. Earnings Watchlist

Below are notable stocks reporting earnings next week, along with my Momentum Pulse Check snapshot and implied volatility for the upcoming week.

In particular, I will keep a close eye on Alphabet ($GOOG). The report serves as a major market catalyst, setting the tone for the broader Tech sector while providing a key test of Alphabet's progress in monetizing its AI investments. Options markets are pricing a 6% move next week.

📌 My take:
There are no major economic reports on the calendar this week, but earnings season begins to pick up steam with the first two Mega Cap reports from Tesla ($TSLA) and Alphabet ($GOOGL). Investors should also keep a close eye on developments in the Middle East, where geopolitical tensions have escalated over the past two weeks.

`COMMUNITY SPOTLIGHT`

Each week, I highlight another Substack publication that offers valuable insights, fresh perspectives, or a helpful approach. This week, I’m pleased to feature , the analyst behind Dividendomics.

In his publication, he covers dividend income investing, covered calls, and high-yield ETF analysis, with a focus on the real income his own portfolio throws off every month. If you want to build a paycheck out of your holdings, that’s where he can serve you.

Here is the link to one of his post:

Dividendomics

Get Paid Almost Every Week of the Year

I built a system that pays me income every single week, using a mix of my own money and some margin debt…

2 months ago · 15 likes · 2 comments · TheGamingDividend

CONCLUSION

That’s a wrap for this recap! I spend hours every week structuring this recap so you can quickly find the insights you need, week after week.

You enjoyed this recap and want the actionable side? Paid subscribers get access to my weekly Momentum Picks, with more than 1,000% return since 2019, or 30% per year.

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Happy investing,

My Weekly Stock,

DISCLAIMER

Trading Update: +45% YTD. My Picks for Next Week Inside

Sun, 12 Jul 2026 08:02:39 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock.

A new week is around the corner, which means one thing for me: preparing my trading plan.

Each week, my algo selects 3 momentum picks to trade from Monday open till Friday close.

The result? 1,026% return since 2019, or 33% average annual return and outperforming the S&P 500 by 5×.

Want these picks delivered straight to your inbox, plus my entry/exit rules and my complete framework? Upgrade your subscription and get full access.

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`SUMMARY`

Here are the top highlights for my weekly momentum strategy:

Last week: -3.3%. All 3 picks stopped out.
2026 YTD: +45% | Since 2019: +1,026%, 33% CAGR. 57% Hit rate.
Week ahead: 3 longs: 1 Dow30, 1 Large Cap, 1 Nasdaq100.

📌 Trading week reflections:

Fourth consecutive weekly loss, no point hiding it. I continue to suffer through the sideways market conditions, with no clean trend or clear theme to trade. Add in elevated volatility, and my stop-losses get hit fast.

Losing streaks are no fun, but they are part of the game. My 2026 hit rate is still sitting at 67% even after this run, well above my 57% long-term average. So in many ways this is to be expected after the strong winning streak earlier in the year. My only priority right now is to keep executing as well as I can and weather this tough period, so I am ready to ride the strong trends that will inevitably come next.

1. My Strategy

After years of research, I’ve developed a winning momentum strategy that cuts through market noise. If you’re new here or want a deeper dive into my strategy, check out my detailed post below:

Since these picks are often well into their up (or down) trends, I use tight stop-losses to manage risk as reversals can be swift.

The end result? 3 momentum picks per week I hold from Monday open to Friday close. Rule-based, no second-guessing.

2. Performance Update

Since 2019, my momentum picks have delivered a cumulative return of +1,026% (with stop-loss rules applied), roughly 5× the S&P 500 over the same period. That translates into a 33% CAGR.

At the weekly level, the strategy has a 57% hit rate. The maximum drawdown is -19%, and the worst rolling 12-week return is -14%.

Last week, I traded 3 longs:

Dow 30 – TRV: -2.0%
Large Cap – ORCL: -4.0%
Nasdaq – VRTX : -4.0%

The average return for the week was -3.3%, bringing my 2026 performance to +45%.

Three picks, three stop losses hit. No need to overthink it, it was simply a bad week. I am taking the loss, moving on, and hoping the market finally delivers a cleaner trend and a clearer theme to trade.

From 2019 through 2024, the strategy was based solely on one pick from the Dow 30 index. In 2025, I expanded to include a pick from Large Caps, and in January 2026, one from the Nasdaq 100 index.

While I have backtested results since 2022 for the additional watchlists, I only include live, publicly published picks in the official performance record.

Returns are calculated from Monday’s market open to Friday’s close, unless a stop-loss is triggered. Performance is compounded weekly.

Paid subscribers have access to all the details behind the picks.

3. My Picks for the Week Ahead

Weekly Market Recap (Jul 6-10): Winning Week, but Markets Stay Range-Bound. Q2 Earnings Up Next

Fri, 10 Jul 2026 21:08:13 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock, where momentum meets discipline. My mission is to arm you with unbiased, data-driven insights you can act on.

Every Friday, I recap the U.S. market through a momentum lens to help you see what’s working and what’s not.

Want to go deeper? Paid subscribers get access to the full momentum framework behind my 35% average annual return since 2019: weekly picks, proprietary tools, and monthly market deep dives.

Subscribe now

`SUMMARY`

Here are this week's highlights and what to look out for next:

1. Performance Recap: a winning week across the equity markets: S&P 500 (1.2%), Nasdaq (1.7%), Dow Jones (-0.5%). Sector leaders: Energy (+3.5%) and Technology (+2.9%).
2. Momentum Pulse Check: S&P 500’s long-term trend is strong and short-term momentum is mixed. Next resistance: 7,620; support: 7,430.
3. Earnings Update: 18 S&P 500 companies reported Q2 2026 earnings with 83% topping estimates. Q2 earnings growth: +24%, full-year 2026 outlook: +27%.
4. Sentiment Check: CNN Fear & Greed at 49/100 (Neutral); VIX was down 7% to 15.
5. Next week’s agenda: Earnings from TSM and JPMorgan. Inflation reports. Retail Sales data.

📌 My Take:

The index closed a winning week, though leadership was narrow, with gains largely carried by tech and energy names. The broader momentum picture is actually remarkably stable. Short-term action remains clearly sideways, with the index range-bound, but the long-term trend has stayed strong throughout. That is quite healthy overall and, as expected, as the index is still in consolidation mode after its strong rally.

Next up is the Q2 earnings season, which will be critical. It was the massive earnings growth re-rating that carried the index from its March lows back to record highs, so the bar is high. Banks kick things off next week, but the real test comes later this month when the key tech names report. That is when we will find out whether the index can finally break out of its multi-week range to new highs.

`PERFORMANCE RECAP`

1. S&P 500 Sector Breakdown

This week: 5 of the 11 sectors advanced. Energy (3.5%) was the best performer, while Materials (-2.1%) was the weakest.

Year-to-date: 9 sectors are positive. Technology (29 %) is the leader, while Communication Serv. (-5.2%) is the laggard.

2. S&P 500 Movers: Top & Worst Performers

Over the last five trading days, 42% of S&P 500 stocks closed higher.

Top Performers:

$HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company): 17.7%
$ANET (Arista Networks, Inc.): 16.9%
$META (Meta Platforms, Inc.): 14.8%
$AKAM (Akamai Technologies, Inc.): 11.5%
$STX (Seagate Technology Holdings PLC): 11%

Worst Performers:

$ARE (Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.): -8.9%
$PSKY (Paramount Skydance Corporation): -9.4%
$BLDR (Builders FirstSource, Inc.): -10.6%
$HONA (Honeywell Aerospace Inc.): -10.7%
$MRNA (Moderna, Inc.): -14.4%

3. S&P 500 Movers: New 1-Year Highs & Lows

This week, 69 S&P 500 stocks hit new 52-week highs, while 7 stocks fell to new lows. Financials stood out, contributing 39 of this week’s new highs.

Notable new 52-week highs:

$LLY (Eli Lilly and Company)
$V (Visa Inc.)
$JNJ (Johnson & Johnson)
$BAC (Bank of America Corporation)
$UNH (UnitedHealth Group Incorporated)

Notable new 52-week lows:

$AMT (American Tower Corporation (REIT))
$ORLY (O’Reilly Automotive, Inc.)
$CCI (Crown Castle Inc.)
$LVS (Las Vegas Sands Corp.)
$VICI (VICI Properties Inc.)

📌 My take:
Leadership remained somewhat narrow despite the positive headline performance, with the majority of S&P 500 stocks and sectors actually closing lower for the week.

`MOMENTUM PULSE CHECK`

1. S&P 500 Pulse Check

(1) Performance: positive short-term performance and trading at short distance form 1-year high.

1-month performance: +2.4%
3-month performance: +11.0%
Distance from 52-week high: -0.6%

(2) Breadth: positive breadth reading.

Breadth measures how many stocks are joining the move. Extreme readings (>80% or <20%) often signal overbought/oversold conditions and serve as early warning signs of a trend reversal.

% of stocks above 200-day moving average: 65% (down from 66% last week)
% of stocks above 20-day moving average: 62% (down from 68% last week)

(3) Trends: positive long-term trend, but mixed short-term momentum.

I analyze trend strength using exponential moving averages (EMAs) and score them on a 1-5 scale. A score of 3+ indicates a healthy trend worth riding.

Weekly chart (long-term/position):

Strong Uptrend ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐, Status: Stable

Daily chart (mid-term/swing trade):

Sideways ⭐⭐☆☆☆, Status: Stable

4) Key levels:

Critical price zones that either confirm the current trend or warn of a potential reversal.

Support (downside zones to watch)

7,050 (–6.9%)
7,240 (–4.4%)
7,430 (-1.9%)

Resistance (upside hurdles)

7,620 (+0.6%)
7,700 (+1.6%)

📌 My take:
Week after week, the momentum picture remains remarkably stable, with a strong long-term uptrend but persistent sideways action over the shorter timeframe. Until the index breaks out of its recent range and makes new highs, I will remain somewhat cautious about trusting any short-term move.

2. Momentum Deep Dive of the Week

Each week, I select a specific theme and run the entire framework to pinpoint where the momentum lies.

This week, the theme is the Mega Caps. The Mega Cap picture is increasingly bifurcated, especially among Tech. At the top, $AAPL, $GOOG, $AMZN and $NVDA are still solid leaders, well anchored in their uptrends. On the other side, $MSFT and $META remain stuck in their downtrends, although the latter is warming up. Upcoming earnings season might reshuffle all that. Meanwhile, Mega Cap is not one trade right now — stock selection has never mattered more.

EMA 30\n\n✅ Both EMAs rising\n\n= Strong trend\n\nHere’s what my momentum model shows:\n\n1) Uptrend:\n\n\n\n\n\n$AAPL (Apple): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\n$LLY (Eli Lilly): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐\n\n\n\n$GOOG (Alphabet): ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆\n\n\n\n$NVDA (Nvidia): ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆\n\n\n\n$AMZN (Amazon): ⭐⭐⭐☆☆\n\n3) Sideways:\n\n\n\n\n\n$TSLA (Tesla): ⭐⭐☆☆☆\n\n4) Downtrend:\n\n\n\n\n\n$META (Meta): ⭐☆☆☆☆\n\n\n\n$WMT (Walmart): ⭐☆☆☆☆\n\n\n\n$MSFT (Microsoft): ☆☆☆☆☆\n\nIn short: The Mega Cap picture is increasingly bifurcated, especially among Tech. At the top, $AAPL, $GOOG, $AMZN and $NVDA are still solid leaders, well anchored in their uptrends. On the other side, $MSFT and $META remain stuck in their downtrends, although the latter is warming up. Upcoming earnings season might reshuffle all that. Meanwhile, Mega Cap is not one trade right now — stock selection has never mattered more.\n\nWhat is you favorite Mega Cap at the moment?","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1","title":null},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Momentum Pulse Check: Which Mega Cap Has the Best Trend?"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"I evaluated the trend strength of"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":" 10 Mega Caps,"},{"type":"text","text":" using my proprietary \""},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Momentum Pulse Check\""},{"type":"text","text":", which scores trends based on the 9- and 30-week EMAs (out of 5 stars):"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"✅ Price above both EMAs"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"✅ EMA 9 > EMA 30"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"✅ Both EMAs rising"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"= Strong trend"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Here’s what my momentum model shows:"}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"1) Uptrend:"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"$AAPL"},{"type":"text","text":" (Apple): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"$LLY"},{"type":"text","text":" (Eli Lilly): ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"$GOOG"},{"type":"text","text":" (Alphabet): ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"$NVDA"},{"type":"text","text":" (Nvidia): ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"$AMZN"},{"type":"text","text":" (Amazon): ⭐⭐⭐☆☆"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"3) Sideways:"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"$TSLA "},{"type":"text","text":"(Tesla): ⭐⭐☆☆☆"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"4) Downtrend:"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"$META"},{"type":"text","text":" (Meta): ⭐☆☆☆☆"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"$WMT"},{"type":"text","text":" (Walmart): ⭐☆☆☆☆"}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"$MSFT"},{"type":"text","text":" (Microsoft): ☆☆☆☆☆"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"In short:"},{"type":"text","text":" The Mega Cap picture is increasingly bifurcated, especially among Tech. At the top, $AAPL, $GOOG, $AMZN and $NVDA are still solid leaders, well anchored in their uptrends. On the other side, $MSFT and $META remain stuck in their downtrends, although the latter is warming up. Upcoming earnings season might reshuffle all that. Meanwhile, Mega Cap is not one trade right now — stock selection has never mattered more."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"What is you favorite Mega Cap at the moment?"}]}]},"restacks":1,"reaction_count":21,"children_count":1,"attachments":[{"id":"2b995118-bce1-4d67-aee0-6c3e8433dda5","type":"image","imageUrl":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f522e0a5-a38f-483e-be15-c5d90a0f00f0_2866x1166.png","imageWidth":2866,"imageHeight":1166,"explicit":false}],"name":"My Weekly Stock","user_id":25966035,"photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ImaI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa22d8d4f-ef92-42b7-8b6f-e7ce0f4142a6_500x500.png","user_bestseller_tier":100,"userStatus":{"bestsellerTier":100,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"bestseller","tier":100},"subscriber":null}},"source":null,"forumChannel":null}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder">

3. Stock Analysis of the Week

I selected a name with recently reported earnings and ran it through the full Momentum Pulse Check to assess the implications for long-term positions. This week: Nike ($NKE).

My View → PASS

$NKE remains stubbornly stuck in its multi-year downtrend with a clean pattern of lower highs and lower lows. There is nothing to grab onto here technically as price trades below falling 9-week ($44.07) and 30-week ($50.84) EMAs.
Crucially, the outlook is Stable, meaning this downtrend is not showing any signs of exhaustion yet. No warming, no firming, no divergence.
The only silver lining is that the $40 area seems like a solid support zone. But even so, the path of least resistance remains lower as long as price stays below the 9-week EMA. Sometimes the best trade is no trade. $NKE is one of those cases right now.

The full breakdown (trend score, key levels, and implications) is available in this Substack Note.

Subscribe now

`ECONOMIC & EARNINGS REPORTS`

1. Economic Reports

It was a relatively calm week on the economic front, with the FOMC meeting minutes taking center stage. The minutes revealed a more hawkish and divided Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Key reports:

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun): Actual: 54.0 | Forecast: 54.2 | Previous: 54.5
S&P Global Services PMI (Jun): Actual: 51.2 | Forecast: 51.3 | Previous: 51.3

2. Earnings Outlook

Q2 2026 Earnings: S&P 500 earnings expected to grow +24% year-over-year (+20% when excluding Energy).
2026 Full-Year Outlook: Consensus forecasts +27% growth, largely above the 10-year average of +9 %.
Analyst Revisions: 58% of all revisions in the past month have been upward.
Valuation: Forward 4-quarter P/E ratio stands at 20.3, above both the 5-year and 10-year historical averages.

3. Earnings Season Recap

Out of the 18 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 2026 earnings, 83% exceeded EPS expectations, above the four-quarter average of 80% and above the historical average of 67%.

Below are some notable companies that reported last week, along with their EPS/revenue performance vs. estimates and weekly stock returns.

One highlight: PepsiCo ($PEP). Shares fell after earnings as a drop in North American sales volumes and cautious consumer spending offset an overall revenue beat. The stock lost 5% for the week.

📌 My take:
With no major earnings reports and limited macroeconomic data, all eyes were on the FOMC meeting minutes, which reinforced the message that policymakers remain cautious on inflation, reducing expectations for near-term rate cuts.

MARKET SENTIMENT

1. VIX (Volatility Index)

Current reading: 15.0, a low value, and down 7% from last Friday.

2. CNN Fear & Greed Index

This index combines seven market indicators to score investor sentiment from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed).

Current reading is 49 (Neutral), up from 32 a week ago.

3. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator

Current reading: 9.5 an extreme bullish signal, and typically a contrarian “sell” signal.

📌 My take:
Short-term sentiment has returned to neutral, while volatility eased into the end of the week. There is no clear directional bias here, leaving room for the market to break either way.

`THE WEEK AHEAD`

1. Economic Calendar

It will be another busy week on the macro front, with the latest inflation data and Retail Sales. Markets will be watching closely for any sign of inflation moderating and whether consumer spending remains resilient.

Key reports:

CPI (MoM) (Jun): Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.5%
Core CPI (MoM) (Jun): Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
CPI (YoY) (Jun): Previous: 4.2%
PPI (MoM) (Jun): Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 1.1%
Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun): Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.9%
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun): Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.8%

2. Earnings Calendar

The new earnings season starts next week, with 32 S&P 500 companies set to report their quarterly results.

3. Earnings Watchlist

Below are notable stocks reporting earnings next week, along with my Momentum Pulse Check snapshot and implied volatility for the upcoming week.

In particular, I will keep a close eye on TSM. Earnings from this critical AI supplier will likely be market-moving, especially as the broader AI trade has taken a breather in recent weeks. Options market is pricing a 7% move for next week.

📌 My take:
A new earnings season is just around the corner, and once again expectations are lofty, with 20%+ earnings growth projected for the quarter. That upward re-rating in earnings expectations was a major driver of this year's rally, making this reporting season likely to have a significant impact on markets for the rest of the summer.

`COMMUNITY SPOTLIGHT`

Each week, I highlight another Substack publication that offers valuable insights, fresh perspectives, or a helpful approach. This week, I’m pleased to feature

ETFShelf.com brings together ETF news, data, tools, and market insights in one place. Our Substack complements it with visual storytelling, using charts and infographics to explain the industry’s biggest trends and developments.

Here is the link to one of his website:

https://etfshelf.com/

CONCLUSION

That’s a wrap for this recap! I spend hours every week structuring this recap so you can quickly find the insights you need, week after week.

You enjoyed this recap and want the actionable side? Paid subscribers get access to my weekly Momentum Picks, with more than 1,000% return since 2019, or 35% per year.

Subscribe now

Happy investing,

My Weekly Stock,

DISCLAIMER

Trading Update: +50% YTD. My Picks for Next Week Inside

Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:02:51 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock.

A new week is around the corner, which means one thing for me: preparing my trading plan.

Each week, my algo selects 3 momentum picks to trade from Monday open till Friday close.

The result? 1,064% return since 2019, or 33% average annual return and outperforming the S&P 500 by 5×.

Want these picks delivered straight to your inbox, plus my entry/exit rules and my complete framework? Upgrade your subscription and get full access.

Subscribe now

`SUMMARY`

Here are the top highlights for my weekly momentum strategy:

Last week: -0.3%. Volatile week, 1 double-digit winner, 1 double-digit loser.
2026 YTD: +50% | Since 2019: +1,064%, 33% CAGR. 58% Hit rate.
Week ahead: 3 longs: 1 Dow30, 1 Large Cap, 1 Nasdaq100.

📌 Trading week reflections:

Flat on the week, but a wild ride behind the headline number. One pick down double digits, one up double digits. I continue to suffer from sideways conditions, and with tight stop losses, I get stopped out quickly. I accept that trade-off, as I am more interested in limiting my downside than holding through the week in hopes of a bounce. Sometimes the bounce comes, but more often than not the stop loss protects you from something far worse. That was clearly the case last week.

Heading into next week, I am back to 3 longs, though that does not mean I am fully trusting last week’s market bounce. This is where options are a great tool. I can define my maximum loss exposure upfront while still participating if the move continues.

1. My Strategy

After years of research, I’ve developed a winning momentum strategy that cuts through market noise. If you’re new here or want a deeper dive into my strategy, check out my detailed post below:

Since these picks are often well into their up (or down) trends, I use tight stop-losses to manage risk as reversals can be swift.

The end result? 3 momentum picks per week I hold from Monday open to Friday close. Rule-based, no second-guessing.

2. Performance Update

Since 2019, my momentum picks have delivered a cumulative return of +1,064% (with stop-loss rules applied), roughly 5× the S&P 500 over the same period. That translates into a 33% CAGR.

At the weekly level, the strategy has a 58% hit rate. The maximum drawdown is -19%, and the worst rolling 12-week return is -14%.

Last week, I traded 2 longs and 1 short:

Dow 30 – UNH: -2.0%
Large Cap – PLTR: +11.2%
Nasdaq – MSTR : -10% (short)

The average return for the week was -0.3%, bringing my 2026 performance to +50%.

A flat week overall, but the headline performance hides just how volatile it really was. MSTR and UNH were stopped out early, but the rally in PLTR helped salvage the week. It could have been much worse, so I am content to come away almost unscathed.

From 2019 through 2024, the strategy was based solely on one pick from the Dow 30 index. In 2025, I expanded to include a pick from Large Caps, and in January 2026, one from the Nasdaq 100 index.

While I have backtested results since 2022 for the additional watchlists, I only include live, publicly published picks in the official performance record.

Returns are calculated from Monday’s market open to Friday’s close, unless a stop-loss is triggered. Performance is compounded weekly.

Paid subscribers have access to all the details behind the picks.

3. My Picks for the Week Ahead

Momentum Pulse Check: Which Segment Has The Best Trend? (Jun 2026 Edition)

Tue, 30 Jun 2026 16:47:47 GMT

Readers,

Welcome back to My Weekly Stock.

Once a month, I step back from weekly trades to assess the bigger picture: where momentum is strengthening, where it’s fading, and what that means for the weeks ahead.

This is my Momentum Deep Dive, powered by my proprietary Momentum Pulse Check tool. I use it to monitor trends and market regimes across key segments, sectors, and individual stocks.

Paid subscribers have full access to my app and can run any top US stock or ETF through it directly.

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Summary

This month’s deep dive covers two things: the broader momentum landscape across key market segments, and an update on my Macro ETF Portfolio:

Momentum Snapshot
Equities: Strong uptrend across the board — S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Small Caps
Commodities: Oil going sideways. Precious metals in strong downtrend.
Crypto: Bitcoin and Ethereum in strong downtrend, but extended.
Treasuries: Sideways.
US Dollar: in uptrend.
Macro ETF Portfolio
97% invested across 15 positions. Last month: 6 new positions, 6 exits.
Cumulative return: +47% since October 2023
Top performers: Semiconductors ETF ($SMH, +156%) and Emerging Markets ETF ($EEM, +50%).

📌 My Take:

A significant shift over the past month: metals momentum has shifted to deep negative, crypto failed its breakout attempt and is back in a downtrend, oil is cooling, and Treasuries remain stuck in a year-long range. The only reliable source of momentum right now is equities, with a strong uptrend, but the June pullback still need to be fully digested. The everything rally is definitely over.

This is reflected in my ETF portfolio, which has seen its most meaningful rotation in a while. I am overweight equities across index and sector-specific ETFs, and I have rotated out of metals and crypto over the past month. I am sitting on a sizeable cash cushion, partly parked in short-term bonds, waiting for deployment. The priority in the coming weeks is building my watchlist and patiently waiting for attractive risk/reward setups, particularly in the commodity and crypto spaces.

How this analysis is built

This combination gives me a holistic view of each segment: not just where price has been, but how healthy the trend is and where it may face pressure.

This framework is designed to do one thing well: separate clean, tradable momentum from noise.

It doesn’t predict markets or aim to catch exact tops or bottoms. Instead, it helps identify where trends are working, where they’re weakening, and where caution is warranted.

Momentum Pulse Check

$SPY - S&P 500 ETF

Momentum Score: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ | Strong Uptrend - Outlook: Stable

Key Levels

Support: $720
Resistance: $770

📌 My Rating: HOLD
There is no denying the rally took a breather in June as it ran into strong resistance around 760. However, the pullback has been relatively mild all things considered and successfully held the 9-week EMA, exactly what you would expect in a strong, healthy uptrend. I continue to favor a bullish continuation once this consolidation runs its course.

$QQQ - Nasdaq ETF

Momentum Score: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ | Strong Uptrend - Outlook: Stable

Key Levels

Support: $690
Resistance: $750

📌 My Rating: HOLD
A somewhat similar setup, with strong resistance around $750 that opened the door to a pullback in June. Some of the moves looked scary, but once again the 9-week EMA once held as support, just as it did for the S&P500.

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$IWM - Russell 2000 ETF (Small Caps)

Momentum Score: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ | Strong Uptrend - Outlook: Stable

Key Levels

Support: $278
Resistance: $310

📌 My Rating: HOLD
My favorite equity chart for months, as it continues to ride a clean uptrend and was barely phased by the June slowdown that affected the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The resilience has been impressive, making this a clear hold in my view.