We are slowly moving toward something kinetic, and we can see it in how different countries are reacting to what is going on. We are going to get to the point where Russia either collapses from within, as it has happened in a few different periods in Russian history. Or we are definitely moving towards a wider European war. And these are some of the signs that this is happening. Let’s start with Denmark:

The Danish intelligence agency, PET, has stated that Russia is actively preparing a sabotage/subversion operation within the country, with targets including defense industry companies involved in supporting Ukraine.

The planning of Russian sabotage operations is no longer considered a hypothetical future threat.

PET claims that the preparations are so concrete that it is necessary to warn the public.

According to the head of Danish counterintelligence, the goal is to disrupt supplies to Ukraine and to intimidate Europeans, discouraging them from supporting Kyiv.

Russia is seeking individuals to carry out these operations among ordinary Danes online, and methods mentioned include reconnaissance, checking security at factories, and arson.

The Danish companies and organizations that have been identified as potential targets have already been informed of the threat, and government authorities are providing them with recommendations on specific security measures.

This is out of the Soviet handbook of having reconnaissance and sabotage groups. Usually these function as self-contained cells and have legends to hide from authorities. And by legends I mean they have identities that are not precisely Russian. That these are made up, or use the identity of somebody recently dead, is another story. In some cases, these are members of the diplomatic staff of a Russian embassy or consulate. This explains this suggestion from Poland:

Poland proposes expelling nearly a thousand Russian diplomats from the European Union

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has called on the European Union to expel up to 40% of Russian diplomats working in member states – a total of nearly a thousand people. As Sikorski noted at a press conference in Weimar after meeting with his German and French counterparts, the recent wave of hybrid attacks shows that the EU should introduce stricter measures against Russia.

“Ultimately, Russia is trying to undermine the EU from within, and it should not be allowed to enjoy the privileges of free movement,” he said (as reported by Politico).

According to Polish estimates, there are currently more than 2,000 Russian diplomats in EU countries, and at least 40% of them, as emphasized by the Polish minister, “carry out tasks incompatible with their diplomatic status,” including working for intelligence agencies that “engage in terrorist activities” in European countries.

In addition to reducing the number of Russian diplomatic personnel, Sikorski called for restricting the freedom of movement of Russian diplomats, reducing the issuance of Schengen visas to Russian citizens, and requiring Russian citizens to use only biometric documents when entering the EU. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated that Paris is ready to support further steps “if circumstances require it.”

The Poles were very clear as to what this is about. And to be fair, many Western agencies also have personnel working under diplomatic cover. However, with Russia, it is usually beyond just doing some recon or trying to recruit people to work for you; in this case, the diplomat is the handler.

In case of war, many of these people will likely go underground and join cells that are already in place. And that is how Russia will start hitting targets well behind the lines. This is not fantasy. The Soviets were prepared to do this as well. Then there is this from Germany, which includes the permanent deployment of a brigade in Lithuania:

Germany to Begin Supplying Ukraine with Targets and Weapons for Strikes Against Russia

In response to a potential act of sabotage against a Ukrainian military transport aircraft, the Antonov An-124, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz plans to increase military pressure on Moscow. He intends to deliver thousands of attack drones and air defense missiles for the Iris-T system as early as September. Government circles are also discussing increased cooperation between the intelligence agencies of Germany and Ukraine. According to Spiegel, the German government is considering providing assistance to Ukraine in gathering target coordinates for future attacks within Russian territory.

Germany is currently transferring the 45th Armored Brigade to the border with Russia for permanent deployment. The brigade consists of approximately 2,000 pieces of equipment and 5,000 soldiers. Lithuanian Army Colonel (retired) Gintaras Ažubalis says that the brigade’s potential is many times greater than that of the allied forces previously stationed in Lithuania. “The presence of the Germans will not be limited to one brigade. There will be elements of air defense and much more. This is a very, very serious force,” says Ažubalis.

This is not a small force. And while I can see it as a force to slow down a Russian advance, not entirely stop it, tripwire forces help to buy time for a further move of troops. And then there is Finland, which has carried out exercises to stop the Russians. Mind you, during the Winter War they did do a lot of damage to the Soviet Union. And while they lost some territory, they remained independent, unlike a lot of their neighbors:

Finland has practiced defending against a Russian attack as part of the largest civil defense exercises in Europe since World War II.

Finland has always been prepared to defend itself against the neighboring empire and has not abolished conscription, even after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War. Homes in the country are equipped with bomb shelters, and civil servants undergo training in case of military action. However, the aggression against Ukraine, which Moscow presents as a war against the “collective West,” and the increasing warnings from intelligence agencies about Russia’s readiness to test NATO’s resolve have prompted Finland to practice mass evacuations.

More than 2,000 people, including conscripts, volunteers, students, and schoolchildren, are participating in the largest European civil defense exercises since World War II, reports Associated Press. According to the scenario, in the city of Kuopio, located in the center of the country, critical infrastructure, including electricity and water systems, has been disrupted by cyberattacks, and Russian missile strikes are expected.

This is not entirely the environment where you expect peace to continue. This is precisely what you should expect before we go to war. It does smell like the preparations before the First World War, which led to a conflict that destroyed a generation. Then we have this from Vladimir Putin, which is DARVO; I mean, poor victims. I guess attacking the Children’s Hospital in Kyiv was just an accident. Or every other hospital Russia has attacked, or civilian buildings, or post offices. The list is long:

Putin on Ukraine:

We’ve now heard about threats of attacks on civilian aircraft. This is, of course, a manifestation of state terrorism.

And this certainly complicates the possibilities of holding bilateral peace talks.

Russia maintains contacts with Ukraine, primarily through the intelligence services.

Those who remain silent, those who do not pay attention to this—I mean primarily the Western allies of Ukraine—become accomplices of international terrorism.

He is looking for more excuses, because at this point it is clear his fear of defeat, and whatever Russians use to kill him, is deeper than anything sensible, like actual peace. And I guess the number of dead Russian soldiers is not enough, because all the denials that they are not planning a mobilization tell us that indeed there is one coming. This brings me to Volyamedia, which is being transparent as to where Russia is:

Volodymyr Zelenskyy cares more about the lives of ordinary Russian citizens than Vladimir Putin does. We are not crazy. The President of Ukraine’s statement about the need to close the airspace over Russia and stop civilian flights is a direct concern for the lives of thousands of people.

For the fifth year, Vladimir Putin, the Russian authorities, and most Russians have been pretending that nothing unusual is happening, that the “special military operation” is taking place far away, and that life in Russia continues as it did before February 24, 2022.

No one has canceled domestic and international flights to the UAE, Turkey, China, Vietnam, Thailand, India, Serbia, Belarus, and other countries. Supposedly, there are no dangers, so fly safely, citizens, and don’t cause panic.

However, the danger is real, and there is more than one.

In response to Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, Ukraine is striking targets in Russia. Every day, hundreds of drones fly to oil refineries, warehouses, military airfields, fuel depots, and factories that produce both traditional and non-traditional weapons. These drones are being countered by air defense systems that are not designed for this purpose; they were created to shoot down missiles and aircraft, not “drones.”

The Russian air defense system also has problems with target detection, as does the training of personnel. Therefore, every time there is a threat of a drone attack in Russia, civilian airports are closed to avoid accidentally shooting down a passenger plane. This does not always work and is not effective everywhere. On December 25, 2024, a Russian “Pantsir-S1” system shot down an Azerbaijani Airlines plane, killing 38 people. In March 2026, air defense shot down a light aircraft in the Moscow region, mistaking it for a Ukrainian drone, killing both pilots. The Russian military aviation also suffers casualties – since the beginning of the war, about a dozen military aircraft have been shot down by friendly fire over Russian territory.

Given the increasing intensity of Ukrainian drone attacks, the risks to civilian aviation in the sky over Russia are increasing every day. We emphasize that the main threat to passenger planes is not the drones themselves, but the Russian air defense system.

Another danger is the tendency of the Russian military to place military aircraft and military targets directly on the territory of civilian airports. Air defense aviation is based in many Russian regions in the same areas where passenger planes take off and land. Military storage facilities for aviation fuel are also located on the territory of airports. All of this is a legitimate military target, and the fact that they have not yet been effectively attacked is not a credit to the Russian Armed Forces, but rather a sign of Ukraine’s good will. It is easy for passengers and civilian aircraft to be hit – they could be hit by damaged drones, or by “Pantsir” missiles that have not intercepted their target and have not self-destructed (the fuel tank cover in Kapotnya will not lie).

Almost 70% of air traffic in Russia passes through Moscow, which is under constant drone attacks. Sooner or later, this will inevitably lead to one or more civilian aircraft being shot down by Russian air defense.

In addition to the purely military risks, there are also those related to the technical condition of the aircraft fleet. Even before the sanctions, it was far from ideal, and since 2022, it has become virtually impossible to carry out full maintenance and scheduled repairs of civilian aircraft. The quality of components purchased through third countries is declining, the number of aircraft in working condition is decreasing, and the remaining ones are subjected to additional stress, which accelerates wear and tear.

Turkish, Chinese, Arab, Indian, and Iranian airlines are unlikely to abandon the Russian market – it is a matter of money for them. But reasonable Russians should think about whether it is worth flying at all during a war. This is a matter of life and death, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy has kindly warned about this.

This matters because, under international law, Zelenskyy has warned of the risks. But the Russian authorities are acting as if everything is normal, or accusing Ukraine of terrorism, when Russia has human safaris around Kherson. And I mean that they hunt civilians, sometimes young teenagers, riding bikes with drones. I guess that is not terrorism.

Read more

When CIA Director Bill Burns traveled to Moscow in 2021, he came with a warning. We know you intend to invade Ukraine; don’t. Of course, we know that Russia did not heed that warning. As they say, that is history, and this war has been on since February of 2022. So Director John Ratcliffe went to Moscow with a warning. This time, to stop picking a fight with NATO. And of course, they are ignoring it.

In fact, what we are seeing is the acceleration of this hybrid warfare across Europe. Let me first share what happened in Germany, which reacted to this diplomatically, but I will say it again. Until we have a multi-casualty event in Europe, selling a war to her civilians will be hard. And Russia knows this, why it is keeping these attacks just before that trigger:

In Germany, an explosion at a train station and two acts of sabotage at power plants occurred within 24 hours.

In Germany, a series of incidents occurred at critical infrastructure facilities over the past 24 hours. On Wednesday, an unidentified object exploded between buildings opposite the main train station in Augsburg, reports Augsburg Allgemeine. Two young men, aged 17 and 18, were injured and suffered minor acoustic trauma. According to some reports, a hand grenade exploded, but the police have not officially confirmed this. Later, another suspicious object was found at the station, leading to its complete closure. After inspection, the alert was lifted, and train traffic resumed.

On September 1st, energy facilities in western and eastern Germany were damaged – both incidents are being investigated as possible acts of sabotage, reports Reuters. For example, after a short circuit at a substation in Bergheim, near Cologne, several power lines went out of service. So far, the investigation has not found any signs of a technical malfunction at the facility.

According to RWE Power, as a result of the incident, three power units at the Niederaußem power plant and two units at the Neurath power plant were disconnected from the grid, with a total capacity of approximately 4200 MW. At the time of the incident, they were generating about 3000 MW. In addition, in the eastern state of Brandenburg, unknown devices with conductive materials damaged power lines. The operator, Amprion, also linked this incident to possible external interference.

There is more; remember the attack on Leipzig? Now we know who did it. And it is classic Russian hybrid war doctrine. Alas, this time it will be hard to deny because genetics is what it is:

German authorities have announced the identification of two suspects linked to Russia in connection with the drone attack in Leipzig.

German investigators have identified two suspects who may have been involved in the attempted drone attack on a Ukrainian Antonov An-124 aircraft at Leipzig Airport on August 5th, according to Bild. According to the publication, one of them is a Russian native with a Latvian passport, and the other is a Belarusian citizen with a Russian passport. The public prosecutor’s office has already filed charges against them.

The first suspect is allegedly believed to have played a key role in planning the attack. At the end of July, he flew to Berlin Airport and drove to Leipzig in a rented car. Just two days after the drone attack, he left Germany, again through Berlin Airport. According to reports from Süddeutsche Zeitung, he is allegedly linked to a Russian intelligence agency. Investigators also found that the Belarusian man entered the Schengen area using an Italian visa. The man has previously committed crimes in the European Union. Security forces found traces of his DNA on one of the drones. The same DNA traces were also found in databases in Lithuania and Finland.

So this team has been involved in more than just this attack. So what we have is a team whose job is to go around Europe, mostly Eastern Europe, involved in hybrid war. Are they trained by the SVR? Likely, or the FSB. However, we cannot fully tie this person to the intelligence services, because Russians have been doing things like this for decades.

This is the clearest connection to the Russian government, though. And the clearest example of something Russia should have some issues denying. We have had these in the past, like the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in the United Kingdom. That led to a cooling of relations, and I'd argue they haven't recovered one bit. In fact, those relations are getting colder as well.

So what was Germany’s response? Here you go:

Russian House Berlin staff are required to leave Germany within seven days, Russian Ambassador to Germany Sergei Nechayev announced.

Germany will face a harsh response to the closure of the Russian Consulate General in Bonn and the Russian House in Berlin, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated.

Moscow views this as a step toward the final destruction of relations built over generations of Russian and German politicians.

Russia denies trumped-up accusations of involvement in the drone incident at Leipzig Airport, as stated by German Chargé d’Affaires to Russia, Finke.

And yes, this is a Russian channel, but it is reporting the diplomatic fallout. Russians also called the chargé d’affaires in Moscow because they were not pleased that these places were closed. Realize, the Russia House is critical for pro-Russia propaganda. So closing this means that they are losing an important asset in Berlin. And of course, Dmitry Medevev is in perfect form today:

Medvedev: They deserve a direct strike against all German military production facilities intended for the Banderite clique.

And quite possibly, against some other locations in Berlin as well.

And if you were wondering, we even heard of Alexandr Dugin, who was in true form today:

Alexander Dugin on why Zelensky’s days are numbered:

His days are numbered; Ukraine will soon fall, and a terrible fate awaits him. Therefore, he is resorting to extreme measures and raising the stakes. An attempt to replace him with new people might be worthwhile – perhaps they would be more rational. If not, then replace him again and again, because it is necessary to force this terrorist entity, modern Ukraine, to abide by certain rules.

The reality is that he is parroting Vladimir Putin, but it also betrays some panic. And we also need to point to the other attacks that point to an accelerating hybrid war campaign across Europe, because it is not just Germany:

An arson attack hit Belgian defense-electronics firm BATS in Liège, with fires started at three separate points.

An anonymous group claimed responsibility, citing BATS’ ownership ties to Israel’s IAI/ELTA and saying this justified reducing the company “to ashes.”

Meanwhile

🇵🇱 Polish authorities say a fire at a WB Electronics drone-component facility was deliberate sabotage. The plant produces components for FlyEye and Warmate drones used by Poland and Ukraine.

Damage is estimated at at least $4 million, with no injuries. No suspect has been charged and any Russian involvement remains under investigation.

At some point, Europe will react beyond what they have done so far. The reality is that in Europe, selling this as a war will require more than just hybrid attacks with few, if any, casualties. Think of the United States after 9/11 or Pearl Harbor. And Russia, so far, has been very careful to keep casualties below that level. The Gerasimov Doctrine is at play.

Read more

So this morning we woke up to this, and it is another hybrid attack on a German facility. In this case, this is an infrastructure facility. Since the rockets seem to be homemade, this gives the Russians some deniability, but in reality I am sure this is in the back of the head of any of the investigators. So bear that in mind when you read this. And I will also give you another link to the story, not just Telegram.

German police are also investigating another attempted act of sabotage that occurred today at the Turnow-Prailach substation near the Jeversdorf lignite-fired power plant in Brandenburg. The facility was repeatedly targeted with homemade rockets, and some of the rockets hit their targets. Several more launch devices containing rockets loaded with explosives were found and neutralized at the scene, and explosive devices were also discovered at the substation itself.

The network operator 50Hertz reported that the sabotage caused damage to several power lines, resulting in a brief disruption, but the overall electricity supply was not affected. Bomb disposal experts are working at the scene.

So this is following the attack on a plane at Leipzig. Germany is now blaming the Russian Federation for that attack. And here you go, with one of the many Western reports:

The German government has blamed Russia for the drone attack on Leipzig airport last month, calling it “dangerous behaviour” and part of a systematic and concerted effort by Moscow to “cause great damage” through a large number of hybrid attacks.

The interior minister, Alexander Dobrindt, and the foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, ended weeks of speculation and the government’s hesitancy to blame Russia, saying in a brisk 10-minute briefing in Berlin that all indications were the Russian state had provided the knowhow and equipment for the planned attack and “low-level agents” were recruited to carry it out.

A drone loaded with explosives was discovered at Leipzig/Halle airport on 4 August attached to the wing of a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane used to transport weapons to Ukraine. It failed to detonate but could have caused a catastrophe, authorities said.

Now, this is what we call a pattern. And I think it is an important pattern. I have said it before. Russia wants a confrontation with NATO, but one just below the threshold for kinetic war. This is part of that hybrid campaign they have been waging against Europe. And the reality is that Article Five will not come into play until we have a mass casualty event in Europe. Because every day Europe buys, it is another day they can get more ready for war.

However, you are never ready for war. So take that into account. And here is the statement from Mark Rutte in Germany:

Rutte: I just spoke with Friedrich Merz. NATO stands in full solidarity with Germany after the Russian hybrid attack in Leipzig on 4 August.

Russia’s attempts to intimidate us, to undermine our unity and our willingness to support Ukraine are futile and will fail. Our support to Ukraine is unwavering, as is our ironclad commitment to NATO’s collective defence

So at the very least, even though we are not seeing consultations under Article 4 openly, there is a real possibility that at this point they are just skipping the declaration of such. In the meantime, Russia launched a very large attack overnight on Kyiv and also Odesa, and these attacks are directed at the civilian population, because they are trying to force a surrender. They keep forgetting that bombing civilians has never quite worked:

Nine people were killed in a Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv and the Kyiv region.

Russian forces launched a massive missile and drone attack on Kyiv and the Kyiv region on the night of September 1st. Eight people were killed in the Ukrainian capital as a result of the strikes, and five others, including three children, were injured, according to the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (SESU). According to the agency, the Daritsa, Goloseev, and Solomensky districts were hit. In Daritsa, fires broke out in two places, in Goloseev, a non-residential building was damaged, and in Solomensky, a residential building was partially destroyed. Ukrzaliznytsia (Ukrainian Railways) stated that one of the strikes hit a railway depot and other company facilities.

The city of Boryspil in the Kyiv region was also shelled. According to Timur Tkachenko, head of the military administration of the region, a five-story residential building was damaged during the attack. Forty-eight people were evacuated from the building, and eight were injured, including one child. In addition, cars caught fire in the parking lot nearby. Another strike hit an enterprise, where one person was killed and another was injured. Tkachenko did not specify which enterprise was hit.

Russia used cluster munitions to maximize casualties. Because, of course, Russia is trying to cause maximum damage by trying to empty Ukrainian cities. And it is part of the flow that we have gotten more or less used to, even though we should never get used to this. In the meantime, yes, President Volodymyr Zelensky is taking the next step in hitting the Russian economy:

Zelensky Declares Russian Airspace Unsafe Amid Reports of Kyiv Preparing Attacks on Airports

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Russian airspace is becoming “completely dangerous” for civilian aviation. He warned airlines and insurers about the risks of flying to Russian airports, particularly in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other major cities. “Ukraine does not threaten civilian aviation as such – not a single civilian aircraft. There will simply be drones in the sky over Russia, so this must be taken into account,” he wrote in his Telegram channel, emphasizing that “the war unleashed by Russia is closing its sky.” The head of state called on ambassadors of foreign countries and airlines to take this information into account, and the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry was instructed to provide comprehensive data on the risks to international organizations. “We in Ukraine do not want to see the loss of innocent lives... Civilian aviation has no place among the drones,” Zelenskyy concluded.

On August 20, The Atlantic, citing sources, reported that Ukraine was preparing a large-scale attack on Moscow airports using a swarm of autonomous drones powered by artificial intelligence. According to the publication, the operation, codenamed M&Ms, was being developed by former Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov before his resignation in July. The plan involved launching up to 1000 small drones in a single night to overwhelm air defenses and paralyze Moscow’s airports, forcing international airlines, including Turkish Airlines and Emirates, to stop flying to Russia. According to sources, Zelenskyy approved the preparation of the operation but expressed concerns about the risk to civilian aircraft.

There are a few problems here. In my mind, using AI in combat is a problem, because AI will escape at some point. And when it does, it will not just stay on assigned targets. There are way too many pieces of fiction exploring this. However, making these airports unusable, or near that point, will further hit the Russian economy. And given that the Russian president and his staff use these airports for transport east, they do become somewhat of a dual target. Also, some of the transport planes that land at these facilities are military.

So yes, a case could be made under international law as to why these facilities are valid targets. However, Zelensky is worried about hiding civilian targets, which his counterpart in the Kremlin does not share. Speaking of his counterpart in the Kremlin, he addressed the nation today in an emergency press conference:

Here are some choice pieces, followed by commentary on mobilization, which I now know is likely coming. Denials are a pretty good sign they are:

❗️❗️Ukraine will face a massive strike on its energy infrastructure: I have given the order, - Putin.

This is not precisely a surprise. Ukrainian intelligence has expected this for some time. This winter will be tough, probably tougher than last year. So, a short comment on the threats to aviation.

❗️I haven’t heard Zelensky’s statements about blocking aviation: If he said that, it’s a declaration of state terrorism. We will find a way to respond, - Putin.

The ironic part is that Russia has been exercising state terrorism all this time, starting at Bucha. So here we are: he is now making threats because he is likely worried about how that will affect the already fragile Russian economy. And then there are these threats against the UK.

❗️Any military facilities in Ukraine are a legitimate target for us, including British ones,” Putin stated.

Exactly what British facilities is he talking about? And there has been a fixation on the UK from the moment this war started because the British have led the rest of Europe in providing equipment Ukraine has used. Now it includes Storm Shadow information so they can build these systems in Ukraine. So that is your context. And lastly, I want to point out that the advance in Ukraine has completely stalled. Even Putin admitted it today.

Read more

I am sure you have noticed the escalation in Ukraine after we saw a withdrawal half-floated last month. Well, now we know why. And it is predictable. We have been saying for years that Russia would rather lose to NATO. But now we know an even better reason. Mind you, this is very Russian and hardly a surprise. Yes, Vladimir Putin remembers what happened to the Romanovs. Ok, they were shot. Whether it’s a bullet or a rope, it’s the same result. Some of this also comes from the fate of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi. So read this in this light:

“I will be hanged”: this is what Putin told his close associates – the dictator fears for his life in case of defeat in Ukraine, – The Economist.

▪️He probably believes that ending the war without achieving even the minimum goal of capturing all of eastern Donbas of Ukraine would expose him to physical danger;

▪️Sources close to the Kremlin claim that after several weeks of reflection over the summer, Putin seems to have decided to escalate;

▪️His long-time associate says that he probably viewed the visit of CIA Director Ratcliffe as a sign of American weakness;

▪️The dictator is going to send another 300,000-400,000 Russians to the war. Additional people will likely be recruited through coercion by regional governments to contain any political discontent;

▪️The Russian authorities are already testing a new recruitment system in the Penza region.

As long as the war continues over there, he likely thinks he is somewhat safer. However, he has also increased his protective detail:

Putin has increased his own security for the fourth time since the full-scale invasion. He is afraid of an assassination attempt or a coup.

This time, the staff of FSO (Federal Security Service) was increased from 785 to 812 people, although by 2022 it had not been changed for almost 13 years.

You do not increase your security unless you fear your own people. And in a way, he does. Remember, they banned the Yabloko party from the elections because they were getting close to ten percent. As they say, these elections will be very open and transparent, as long as you accept that United Russia will win. So who else is getting removed? Here you go:

Bondarenko Proves More Popular Than Putin. Posts About the Communist Candidate, Whom They Want to Remove from the Elections, Garnered More Reactions Than the President’s Pre-Election Speeches.

The scandal surrounding Nikolai Bondarenko, a candidate on the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) list, turned out to be more significant than the main pre-election event of “United Russia” – a congress with the participation of Putin. According to the “Atlas of Elections” project, which analyzed 158,500 publications about parties from August 18-24, information about the removal of candidates from the elections seems more important to social media users than the “positive agenda” of those allowed to participate.

◾️ Posts about the possible exclusion of Bondarenko from the State Duma elections garnered more reactions than Putin’s pre-election speech, according to “Atlas of Elections.” Publications about the president’s speech at the “United Russia” congress received approximately 1.16 million reactions, while materials solely about Bondarenko received 1.48 million, almost a third more.

◾️ On August 21, about ten police officers arrived at the home of Bondarenko, the former deputy from Saratov, and forcibly took him to court. After an eight-hour closed hearing, he was found guilty of displaying the symbols of an “extremist organization” (Article 20.3 of the Code of Administrative Offenses) and fined 1,000 rubles. The basis for the charges was a 2024 post with a photo of Navalny on the “Nikolai Bondarenko Live” / “Opposition Shelter” channel. The politician claims that the channel does not belong to him. Bondarenko intends to appeal the court’s decision, but if it comes into force, the Central Election Commission (CEC) will have grounds to remove him from the elections.

◾️ Bondarenko is one of the most prominent protest communists, a member of the Central Committee of the KPRF. From 2017 to 2022, while working in the Saratov regional Duma (see “Meduza” gallery), he criticized the pension reform and turned parliamentary sessions into viral political shows. When they turned off his microphone, he brought a megaphone, unfurled protest banners, and continued to speak from the hall. He also participated in rallies in support of Navalny. In February 2022, the regional Duma prematurely revoked his mandate – the formal reason was violations in his declaration.

◾️ Bondarenko called himself Volodin’s competitor. In the previous State Duma elections in 2021, he decided to compete with the Speaker of the State Duma in the same district, and Volodin accepted the challenge: “He has no other way out, only to me! A man said it – a man did it.” They were not on the same ballot in the end, but the conflict continued even after the elections. In the current campaign, the KPRF (probably to avoid conflict with Volodin) moved Bondarenko from his native Saratov region and placed him as the first number in the group for the Perm region and Udmurtia – however, the administrative case caught up with him there as well.

◾️ The possible exclusion of Bondarenko has fueled interest in the entire KPRF. Despite the decrease in the overall number of publications about the party, their views and engagement almost doubled. “Atlas of Elections” notes that after the removal of “Yabloko,” one of the main conflicts of the campaign is becoming the confrontation between the KPRF and “United Russia,” and the story of Bondarenko has become one of its most notable episodes.

📩 Support our work! Subscribe to the channel and, if possible, make a donation in any convenient way. And thank you to everyone who does!

Read more

So a few days have passed, and we are starting to see how the loose talk in Bloomberg about nukes is playing out in Russia. I think it matters that we also understand some of the internal discussions. And while I do think the chances of nuclear deployment are not zero, it is still very low.

So bearing that in mind, let’s open with Volyamedia. They have been consistent in their view that Russia intends to invade the Baltics. They also started talking about mobilization before it was cool. So I consider them a good channel. And it’s always good to see what they are thinking:

The Latest American Warning

CIA Director John Ratcliffe arrived in Moscow this morning, held a series of meetings with unnamed Russian officials for just over four hours, and then flew to Riga.

The last time the CIA Director visited Moscow was in early November 2021. At that time, then-CIA Director William Burns spent almost two days in the Russian capital (November 2-3), but he only met with Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, Foreign Intelligence Service Director Sergei Naryshkin, and officials from the FSB. Putin spoke with Burns by phone from his residence in Sochi.

This time, according to our sources in Moscow, Ratcliffe came specifically to see Putin, and their meeting took place. It is likely that during the conversation (or part of it), Director of the SVR Naryshkin, presidential advisor Nikolai Patrushev, Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov, and someone from the FSB leadership were also present.

U.S. media report that Ratcliffe’s visit may have been related to information that the U.S. has about Russia’s preparations for an escalation in Europe.

This is the most likely reason for Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow. In July-August, the United States warned the Baltic states, Scandinavia, and Poland that Russia was preparing to conduct a series of hybrid operations in the region. In addition, the U.S. intelligence community is well aware of Russia’s preparations for a possible war against the Baltic states (which we have been writing about since last year), as well as the activation of SVR and GRU agent networks in Europe.

The short timeframe of the visit suggests that Ratcliffe had a specific goal in Moscow: to speak with Putin. He was not interested in any standard protocol meetings.

It is impossible to know for sure what the conversation was about or what tone it was conducted in.

In November 2021, the CIA Director tried to make it clear to Putin that the United States was aware of his preparations for an invasion of Ukraine and that, in the event of such an invasion, the U.S. would react in the most severe and negative way possible. It is possible that Ratcliffe made similar statements or informed Putin that his carefully concealed preparations for a new “special operation” were well known. However, it is unlikely that Ratcliffe was authorized by Trump to have a harsh conversation or to issue any ultimatums. He may have simply conveyed the U.S. position that it would not approve of an open military conflict against NATO countries in Europe, without specifying the consequences for Russia.

According to one of our sources in Moscow, who was not present at the meeting, Ratcliffe’s visit was not so much a threat as an attempt to hear the Russian arguments about the impossibility of a real invasion of the Baltic states, so that he could then relay them to Trump. There are also rumors that Putin asked Ratcliffe to convey an invitation to Trump to visit Moscow in September, both for the U.S. President himself and for Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance.

This type of tactic usually works with Trump, and if he agrees to come to Moscow himself, or at least send Rubio or Vance, it would be beneficial for Putin. The visitors would likely talk about the absence of aggressive plans by Russia in Europe and, possibly, about the resumption of peaceful negotiations on Ukraine. There is no better way to create confusion right before a potential invasion of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

Putin was not stopped by the CIA Director’s visit in 2021, so we will see what happens this time. Much can be said about Donald Trump’s behavior, who will undoubtedly make numerous statements about Ratcliffe’s visit in the next 24 hours.

For now, we can only say one thing: Ratcliffe’s conversation with Putin is a sign that the situation regarding a potential Russian invasion of the Baltic states has entered a new phase. It is definitely not a time to relax and believe in a “U.S. ban on a new war.”

And we are seeing quite the growth in hybrid warfare all over Europe, with more strange fires all over the place. Now, why would Vladimir Putin want to poke the NATO bear? I have said it for years. Losing a war to NATO is preferable to losing to Ukraine. In the Russian mind, Ukrainians are not real people. If anything, and this is a Russian slur, they are little Russians.

So losing to an army of no people is a no-go. This is why poking NATO makes sense, as long as you look at it from this funhouse of mirrors that is Russia.

Now, what else is going on? Well, Important Stories has this overview of Russian media:

Three major TV channels have begun discussing the use of nuclear weapons in a war with Europe. The political talk shows aired two days after the visit of the CIA Director.

On Thursday, participants in three political talk shows on Channel One, Russia-1, and NTV discussed the need to use nuclear weapons – either for a demonstration or a real strike against EU countries, as noted by “MO” (excerpts from the discussions are in the video).

🔸**”Time Will Tell,” Channel One.** The director general of the National Energy Security Fund, Konstantin Simonov, spoke about the use of nuclear weapons against European countries. “We are dealing with an adversary that, frankly, surpasses us demographically, technologically, and economically. We cannot fight a conventional war with it [Europe]. **To stop Europe, we will need to use nuclear weapons.**” In the same episode, Deputy Speaker of the Duma, Tolstoy, called for bombing Ukrainian cities to demoralize the population.

🔸**”Meeting Point,” NTV.** Political scientist and military expert Andrei Klintsevich (son of former senator and United Russia official Franz Klintsevich) proposed conducting nuclear tests. “Within a day, every inhabitant of Earth will see the mushroom cloud rising over Novaya Zemlya or somewhere else. We need to show resolve, to show that [nuclear weapons] work.”

🔸**”60 Minutes,” Russia-1.** Military expert, retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok, put forward a similar idea. The show discussed a possible military conflict between Russia and the United Kingdom and its potential escalation into a world war. “I would use demonstration nuclear strikes. To emphasize: if you intend to respond [to Russian strikes with conventional weapons], then demonstration nuclear strikes will turn into real ones,” said Khodarenok.

🔹Against the backdrop of an increase in Ukrainian strikes, more and more Russian officials believe that Putin may use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, Bloomberg reported, citing sources. CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Moscow on Tuesday to warn the Russian authorities against attacking NATO countries in Europe, according to Politico and The Wall Street Journal.

🔹In November 2025, Putin ordered the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and other departments to “submit coordinated proposals on the possible start of work on preparing for nuclear weapons tests.” Later, Peskov clarified that this did not yet involve direct preparations for tests.

👉 The probability of Russia using nuclear weapons in combat is close to zero, military expert Sergei Migdal told “MO.” “All of this is a PR campaign for Western countries – to scare them and force them to stop (or reduce) support for Ukraine. It is possible that Moscow will proceed with demonstration nuclear tests, although this will further isolate it. But there will be no real use. In the current war, all units are dispersed – even a nuclear strike will not inflict critical damage on the enemy. And the political and economic consequences of violating the “nuclear taboo” will be catastrophic. The remaining partners will turn away from the Russian Federation.”

This is not new. Every so often they do this. But this coordination is not accidental. It’s a version of escalate-to-de-escalate that we have seen repeatedly over the years. I am old enough to remember Soloviev threatening a nuclear tsunami on the UK. Oh, never mind; his gay son lives in London. And I do not begrudge his son. It is just funny how many children of the Russian elite live in the West.

Read more

First, a lot of this comes from wide reading into things like the IRA, the Middle East conflict, European resistance movements during World War II, inner-city gangs, the Shining Path, and Latin American liberation movements. There isn't one book I can point to that gives a true overview. The closest I came to this were a couple of theses from the War College. This may be a book to write. So this will be about how resistance movements recruit and grow. You can also find summaries in counterinsurgency doctrines, which tend to deal with this in a top-down fashion. The US current doctrine is a good example of this. Arguably, it failed in both Afghanistan and Iraq because it did not take real local drivers into account. That’s another discussion. And for obvious reasons, this is not about ideology. Because, quite frankly, if you put a few of these groups in a room and closed the door, they would kill each other.

So first, why do you get an insurgency? Or the other term is a resistance movement? The most familiar driver to Western audiences is foreign occupation. Think of European resistance movements to NAZI occupation. People organized and carried out guerrilla campaigns, whether in Eastern Europe with multiple partisan bands or in Western Europe with the French and Belgian resistance. Less well known is the resistance within Germany. The Italian resistance gets high marks because it did not stop until Benito Mussolini's death. Germany was less kinetic, but it did exist. The driver was chiefly moral in that case.

Resistance takes many forms. Some movements act across society, establishing schools, medical facilities, and other services. Yes, a few well-known ones come to mind. Incidentally, a few cartels do this as well, because it buys them loyalty over the central government.

Others just concentrate on raising an army to fight the enemy. And this is also the case in internal insurgencies. Which brings me to recruitment and child soldiers. Yes, this is a sore subject because child soldiers are an emotional point for many Western audiences who cannot envision the use of teenagers (sometimes way younger) in war. And for the record, as of 1977, child soldiers under 15 are protected under the Geneva Conventions. And enlisting child soldiers is a war crime.

Here is the rub: most resistance groups are not signatories of these conventions. Many of these groups are not even recognized as combatants. So enforcing this becomes nearly impossible.

The core members of a resistance movement are committed to the cause. Whether this is Shining Path, the IRA, or Hezbollah. They don’t need recruiting, because they are there. However, all groups need new recruits, especially if they lose bodies in battle or if they are captured by the enemy. This is where counter-insurgency strategies can help these movements with recruitment.

What do I mean? When trying to bring a cell down, you kill people, especially civilians; you create motive for survivors to join the cause. Militaries refer to these losses as collateral damage. Resistance movements look at these losses as opportunities to grow the army.

How does this happen? Many of these groups recruit at gravesites or during the mourning period. Fighters tend to join out of grievance, and losing family members is a big one.

Yesterday I read a piece on Substack that made this point using Star Wars. Luke was not interested in the resistance until his aunt and uncle were killed. This was not just a plot device. It described this process well. This is exactly how it works in real life. It matters little if this is Afghanistan (yes, the Taliban recruited this way;) or Iraq, or the IRA, or Shining Path. Almost every insurgency works this way, no matter the ideology.

As always, there is an exception. Joseph Kony, of the Lord’s Resistance Army. In his case, he had children kidnapped and forced to fight.

Force Imbalance

When you are watching any resistance movement, you need to be aware of the force imbalance between the movement and the government or occupation force they are fighting. This is one reason for child soldiers, by the way. Most of these movements use these young people to carry messages, do reconnaissance, and rarely take up arms. Why? Most adults will mostly ignore young people. So they can slip in and out with ease.

Incidentally, I have mentioned in the past that my dad worked with Partisans. He was, technically, a child soldier. They could slip in and out with ease. He did a lot of observing. Though he was involved in some things like train derailments. His conversations near the end of his life had me look more deeply into this subject.

This force imbalance means resistance movements mostly need to embrace asymmetric warfare. Cause maximum damage for as few resources as possible. Make occupation untenable, and create local legends that will win more local popular support, or at least acceptance. Movements that also provide social services will start those as soon as they establish themselves in new territory.

Some movements, see the Sandinistas, grow to the point that they become armies in their own right. In time, the insurgency succeeds, replacing the government it was fighting. The American Revolution is another successful insurgency, and it replaced the metropolitan power with local self-government. This is a systems analysis, not an ideological one.

Some never achieve this success. In fact, I would presume to say most. So the end of the insurgency comes around the negotiating table. A good example is the Good Friday Agreement, which brought an end to the military wing of Sinn Féin. Usually, agreements like this come with some role in the political arena.

But it is clear that while the British military held most of the raw power, their own counter-insurgency process was not fully working. I would argue our COIN doctrine failed in both Afghanistan and Iraq, because we refused to learn what drove the resistance, or multiple resistance movements, as was the case in Iraq.

In many cases, this ends with the destruction of the insurgency. See the Shining Path in South America. Or, after many decades, the FARC in Colombia. At that point, reintegration is a problem. And if you look up stories on this, it will be clear that demobilizing fighters can create new grievances.

Nation States as ongoing Revolution

Some revolutions become permanent and adopt some tactics of insurgency. It is not just a permanent state of propaganda. It is creating state-run youth groups. This is the case with Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran.

Russia created the group NASHI, which was hyper nationalist and provided a path to the army. However, it was dissolved in 2019, after losing favor with the Kremlin. Never despair; it’s been replaced by the Movement of the First.

Control of education and a certain love of the military is systemic. And having children in military uniforms is a classic of ongoing revolutions. And here is your link to North Korea from Russia:

Over the summer of 2024, some 250 Russian children traveled to North Korea for a 10-day-long kids camp. Framed as cultural diplomacy, the event was the result of a new youth exchange launched in 2022 that sees Russian youth compete for the free trip abroad. To win a place, children have to write an essay on one of three subjects: the role of Russia in a multipolar world; children’s interest in the culture of North Korea; or the story they would like to tell North Korean children about Russia.

The launch of the program comes as ties between Moscow and Pyongyang have grown closer. In the aftermath of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has needed to strengthen its relationship with anti-Western allies, not least to expand its ammunition supply market.

But the North Korea trip is merely one of recent myriad state-sponsored efforts to cultivate nationalism among Russia’s youth under President Vladimir Putin. The Russian state is increasingly trying to instill values of patriotism and loyalty among children through educational initiatives and the creation of new youth organizations.

Reports suggest that Russia plans to spend more than US$500 million in 2024 alone on so-called “patriot projects.” Much of this effort focuses on two areas: the creation of Russian nationalist youth groups, and the politicization of the nation’s schools – both of which have been increasingly prioritized since the war in Ukraine began.

And yes, it is worth quoting North Korean media on this, because it is clear what the expected role is for North Korean youth in the ongoing revolution:

North Korea this week emphasized the need for the country’s youth to maintain utmost loyalty to Kim Jong Un during a once-in-five-years political gathering, positioning the DPRK’s leading youth organization as the “militant reserve” dedicated to advancing the ruling party’s vision.

The 11th Congress of the Socialist Patriotic Youth League, held in Pyongyang from Tuesday to Thursday, brought together young representatives across the country to review the organization’s work and set future goals, the state-owned Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported Friday.

All North Koreans from ages 14 to 30 are expected to join the league, formerly known as the Kimilsungist-Kimjongilist Youth League, and advance Kim Jong Un’s agenda for military development and domestic economic advancement.

The league’s congress, a major political event held roughly every five years, serves as a key venue for the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea to mobilize the country’s youth around state priorities and reinforces control over young people’s activities.

We can see a similar process in Iran, which, after the beginning of the war with the United States and Israel, started recruiting 12-year-olds. It’s not unprecedented. They did the same with the war with Iraq.

It is a war crime, but these kids are not going to the army. They are going to the IRGC. It’s producing future cadres, and it is part of this permanent revolution. And if the US landed forces, facing 12-year-olds would muck up US troops. This is not unlike a resistance movement that uses child soldiers for the same reason.

China also has youth movements. Among them are the Young Pioneers, which work much like the Komsomol. And while not mandatory these days, they are still present in every school. The movement for older teenagers is the Communist Youth League. And if you want to join the party, you join the league.

There are internal issues with Chinese youth, well beyond the scope of this piece. But these two movements are about maintaining the revolution. Which is how they fit.

Incidentally, both Cuba and Nicaragua have equivalent youth organizations. Because they also fall under this rubric of permanent revolution.

Why Does This Matter?

In the bigger picture, knowing how resistance movements work will help you understand them. Ideology does play a role in every resistance movement. It is the main driver, after all. But how they recruit can help you understand how a movement may evolve. Also, how they gain popular support.

And if we see a Russian attack on the Baltics, you will see partisans. In fact, we already have partisans inside both Russia and Belarus. Atesh is also another movement in the occupied territories, as well as Russia, that serves as eyes and ears of the Ukrainian armed forces. But ideology, in some ways, is a higher layer in any movement that has the military basics of reconstituting and feeding a fighting force. Military planners also war-game this, trying to overcome the issues of counter-insurgency operations. One issue is how these operations can produce recruits for an insurgency.

It’s the day after that warning to Moscow. And we're all still trying to guess what it was about. Partially because there is no readout, and to be fair, we should get no readout. In a normal administration, we all would be guessing for the next fifty years. So this from the Lithuanian president is interesting, and it tracks with my informed guess?

Lithuanian President: CIA Director Visited Putin Due to Threat of Russian Sabotage in Europe

The visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow was likely related to an attempt to de-escalate geopolitical tensions amid a growing threat of Russian sabotage in Europe, said Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda. According to him, Lithuania expects to receive information from its partners about the content of the meetings, “possibly next week.” At the same time, he declined to discuss the specific goals of the negotiations. “I believe that this meeting was indeed aimed at reducing geopolitical tensions in our region. This is a positive development,” Nausėda said.

As reported by Bloomberg, the visit of the US intelligence chief took place after warnings from intelligence officials that Russian intelligence and security agencies were considering conducting operations as part of a hybrid war against the Baltic states and Poland. Possible scenarios include sabotage at infrastructure facilities and attacks under a false flag. Recently, Europe has also faced a series of incidents, including the intrusion of armed drones, assassination attempts, and mysterious fires. According to the agency, these actions are likely intended to intimidate the main suppliers of weapons and financial assistance to Kyiv.

Of course, this does not mean much. Because I don’t expect Russia to stop what she is doing. At this point, it seems Vladimir Putin is committed to this war. And we are hearing rumors of nukes once again:

Bloomberg: Putin is preparing for an escalation in Ukraine and may resort to tactical nuclear weapons

Vladimir Putin believes that peace negotiations on Ukraine have reached a dead end, and he is preparing for an escalation of hostilities. At the same time, those around the Russian president are increasingly concerned that he may ultimately resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

This was reported by Bloomberg, citing sources close to the Kremlin. According to the agency’s sources, Russia plans to intensify strikes with ballistic missiles on Kyiv in the near future, including on the city center, as well as on infrastructure facilities in other Ukrainian cities.

Negotiations, which have been ongoing for about a year and a half with the mediation of the Trump administration, have effectively failed, Bloomberg sources say: both sides are in the same position as they were at the beginning. Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory, which have affected dozens of oil refineries, ports, and marketplaces, are seen in Moscow as an attack by NATO, as the alliance provides Kyiv with weapons and intelligence.

Despite the economic pressure, the gasoline crisis, and strikes on logistics hubs, Putin does not plan to end the war, Bloomberg sources emphasize. According to them, the current phase of mutual strikes is not yet the peak of military escalation.

At the same time, more and more Russian officials are coming to the conclusion that Putin may use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine as a last resort, Bloomberg sources close to the Kremlin say. Calls from hawkish pro-war figures advocating for such a step have been growing louder recently, the agency notes, as losing the war is seen as an unacceptable scenario for Putin.

Since diplomacy on Ukraine has stalled, Moscow sees few alternatives to escalation, four sources close to the Kremlin told Bloomberg. The Kremlin still hopes that Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner will bring new proposals to Moscow, although expectations of a breakthrough are very low, the sources said.

This is not a nice thing to read. Russia has been threatening to use nukes almost from day one. They are losing this war simply by not defeating Ukraine and needing more troops. And by more troops, we are already at the beginning stage of a general mobilization. The main show will come after the election.

Russia needs mass to try to break through the front lines, which are similar to the Western Front in World War I.

So why talk tactical nukes? I am on the record that I am unsure Russia has working devices. Though tactical nukes are less delicate than Strategic weapons. So it is possible Putin will decide to use a device to open the front lines.

For the record, it would be a war crime, I guess, to be added to the long list we already have, starting with Bucha. However, this will not deter Putin, who is desperate for a win. And while there is an arrest warrant on him from the ICC, the man could care less. Losing in Ukraine will have consequences for him that he is not willing to face. And he will argue that the attacks inside Russia have risen to a threat to the nation, which is the trigger for the use of nuclear weapons by Russian doctrine.

And reality is that American delegates cannot change this short of convincing Ukraine to surrender the occupied territories. However, Finlandization is not a path Ukraine will accept because they correctly understand Russia will not stop. What Russia wants is the end of Ukrainian statehood and identity. Yes, what Russia wants is genocide.

Read more

In early November 2021, CIA director William J. Burns went on an unannounced trip to the Kremlin. He brought U.S. intelligence pointing to the massing of Russian troops along the Ukrainian border, and told Russian leadership that we knew they intended to attack.

Of course, Russian leadership denied it, because that’s standard for Russia. They never admit what they are going to do. And they don’t care about Western, more precise, American warnings.

We also warned Ukraine, and at least publicly there was some denial. We know what happened back then, and on February 24, 2022, Russia invaded from multiple directions, including a run to Kyiv.

So waking up to this tells me that at least some members of the current administration are worried history is about to repeat itself. It is the latest in a series of warnings we have heard from multiple Eastern European countries, chiefly Poland and the Baltics:

According to former US Deputy Director of National Intelligence, Ratcliffe could have arrived to warn Putin: the US is aware of Russia’s plans and advises against implementing them.

WSJ suggests that the talks could also have covered the war in Ukraine, a ceasefire in Iran, and the Kremlin’s support for Iran.

In July, exercises were held in the Kaliningrad region in case of mobilization. American intelligence claims that such exercises are being held throughout Russia.

We in OSINT have been seeing signs of these exercises. We have also seen what seems to be the beginning of mobilization in several regions. I mean, when one of the lowest population-density regions, the Jewish Region, gets men picked up in the streets, the RuAF is desperate for warm bodies. And we know training them is not exactly a priority. But sending them to assault groups on the front lines is.

I usually do not share Slavingrad, because it’s pretty predictable, but today it’s worth sharing. It’s typical Russian hubris:

CIA Director Arrives to Ask Putin Not to Attack Europe and NATO Countries

- Michael Weiss, editor of The Insider (designated as a foreign agent), reports that Ratcliffe’s mission may be to try to dissuade Putin from conducting operations against European countries.

- Weiss links this to intelligence that the United States has recently been sharing with Poland, the Baltic states, and Scandinavia, as well as the increase in incidents on NATO’s eastern flank: drone incursions, airspace violations, and suspicions of sabotage.

- There are also reports that the head of the CIA will attempt to convince Moscow to end military operations in 2026, as well as:

- A global moratorium on strikes against Russia’s and Ukraine’s energy and port infrastructure.

- A ceasefire in the Kharkov and Sumy regions as a step towards overall de-escalation.

- Prospects for a joint peace process that could end the war in Ukraine.

- The visit of Ratcliffe to Moscow takes place against the backdrop of rumors about a possible general mobilization in Russia, according to the WSJ.

@Slavyangrad

Over the last week, NATO has held several exercises around Kaliningrad, which I suspect will be cut off in case of war. So, in this context, they were a deterrent.

We must remember, the eastern flank has started shooting down more drones as well. So we are starting to see more obvious, more kinetic activity.

Now here is where Sberbank places the future of this war. And I think they are optimistic because all the strikes on Wildberries and Ozon are accelerating the economic crisis. I mean, Wildberries owes a lot of money and likely will go bankrupt. This will destabilize the Russian economy even further:

⚡️Sberbank estimated the probability of Russia’s military victory over Ukraine at only 7%, — The Insider

Hackers Black Mirror published an analytical note from the bank for April 2026. It examined eight scenarios for the end of the war:

▪️32% — frozen conflict with partial lifting of sanctions;

▪️22% — cessation of active hostilities without a peace agreement;

▪️15% — continuation of the war for another 2-3 years;

▪️12% — peace on Russia’s terms;

▪️7% — decisive military victory for Russia;

▪️5% — compromise peace;

▪️2% — peace on Ukraine and Europe’s terms;

▪️5% — unforeseen scenarios: nuclear escalation, direct confrontation between Russia and NATO, a change of power in Russia, a new Chornobyl, and other unexpected events.

That they give only two percent to a Ukrainian victory is either fear of the FSB, or a blind spot, or Russian hubris. And this is another reason for this:

Russia is experiencing an acute shortage of AI-95 gasoline.

According to Benzonavt service (as of August 24, 2026), this brand can be found only at 22% of gas stations across the country.

In no region does availability exceed 50%. Worst:

• Crimea — 1–2%

• Sakhalin — 3%

• Moscow — about 20% (161 out of 786 stations)

AI-92 and diesel are holding up better, but also with interruptions. In many regions, there are limits on sales, queues, and price increases (especially at independent gas stations).

This is not just affecting civilians. It’s also affecting the military. So bear that in mind.

This visit also betrays divisions in the government. As well as the war of choice in Iran, which we cannot get out of, and the economic war with Canada. Both are stupid and betray the worst possible American leadership in history. And whatever the CIA director told the Kremlin can be undone in a second flat by this president. For example, see this tweet from this morning.

So here is the question. What will the US do if Russia moves into, oh, Lithuania? This is not an idle question. And given just how far we have burned through weapons stocks in a war of choice with Iran, there will be issues. And China is also warning the United States against the economic war with Iran. And Canada is responding with Tariffs on US goods.

I guess it depends on what side of the bed Trump wakes up on. Because they are utterly unpredictable. Europe, I think, is getting ready for at least more gray zone warfare. And this is where we are. Are we going to see war? I would not discount it. And once again, no, it does not make sense. Russia objectively has lost this war. However, Vladimir Putin cannot afford to end this war. It could end the Putin era, in a very personal way. And sometimes I wonder if they will let him just retire to any of his Dachas? And we should ask something similar about Trump. Because he continues to make the American position harder, but every one of these moves benefits the Kremlin. That is your division within the administration.

Congratulations to Ukraine. Today marks the 35th anniversary of its independence. Remember, the goal was to ensure this day did not come when Russia invaded in 2022. Russia simply wanted a rump state, subject to Moscow, or for Ukraine to disappear as a country and an identity. It is Russian imperialism going back hundreds of years. This is also why they…

Read more

So today I want to look at what is going on on both the Syrian front and in Kaliningrad. Bear in mind, some of what is going on in Syria is entirely internal Israeli politics. We are in the midst of an electoral campaign, with elections slated for October 27. And as I pointed out the other day, when it comes to national security, Israelis tend to go right. And the margins are narrow.

So, specifically, to Syria. After the fall of Bashar al-Assad, it did look like Israel and Turkey might split the place. I mean, Israel has increased its presence in the south. In particular, in the Golan Heights.

Turkey has been moving into the north of the country. And in Tel Aviv, this potentially means the end of free action in the north, especially for the Air Force. This is the Israeli rationale:

The Turkish-Israeli Confrontation is Turning into a War Over the Land Bridge

Various figures in Israel are accusing the attack in Syria last night of not being a vital necessity, but rather something that could entangle Israel in another arena. I want to present arguments as to why the attack and the handling of the Turkish presence in Syria are of utmost importance.

It is no secret that Syria is a land bridge and a center of jihad that determines the future of the Middle East. Iran has established proxies in Lebanon and Iraq and has used Syria as a land bridge connecting it to Lebanon and Syria, thereby establishing a stranglehold on Israel. Hezbollah has been strengthened primarily through Syria. Israel has taken many actions, referred to as the “MMB” (likely an acronym), to prevent the establishment of strategic assets in Syria and the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah through the land border. With the fall of the Assad regime, the Iranian land bridge was severed, and Syria became a playground for another power.

The weakening of Hezbollah ultimately led to the collapse of the Assad regime and army and the conquest of Syria by rebel organizations, most of which are Sunni jihadists. Turkey is the one that supported this process in order to turn Syria into a backyard for its Ottoman ambitions.

Israel took an important and immensely valuable step by significantly damaging the Assad army, and in particular, the strategic assets it held. Otherwise, the Golan regime would have received, on a silver platter, strategic capabilities that threaten Israel.

The core of the Turkish-Israeli conflict is becoming control over Syria and the establishment of a new land bridge there, replacing the Iranian one.

Why is the Turkish presence a threat to Israel, and to what extent?

1. Israel has not weakened one enemy and severely damaged one axis only to receive a new existential threat from a new Sunni jihadist axis - Turkey is trying to fill the vacuum left behind and establish a Sunni jihadist axis based in Syria, leading to Jerusalem.

2. Air superiority in Syria has opened the way for Tehran. Without the Syrian air defense systems of the Assad army, it would have been much easier for Israel to reach Tehran by air. The deployment of Turkish air defense systems in Syria could significantly restrict Israel and significantly harm Israeli freedom of action.

3. Iran is thousands of kilometers from Israel, but it has established proxies directly supported by officers of the Quds Force of the IRGC, not far from Israel’s borders. Turkey is trying to do the same thing, deploying proxies directly supported by Turkish intelligence and the military on Israel’s borders, as part of a strategy of distancing the war and transferring it to another arena, similar to Iran.

4. Syria is not a functioning state, but a land bridge and a zone of interest for hostile powers. Israel has not gotten rid of the Assad army, which is supported by Iran, only to receive another jihadist regime supported by Turkey, which seeks the same goal.

5. Rebuilding and strengthening the Syrian army is not something to be taken lightly. Israel has not severely damaged the Assad army after the coup in Damascus in order to receive a Syrian army that is many times stronger and more advanced.

These are some of the main reasons why Israel must not allow any Turkish presence in Syria, no matter where. The events of October 7th should teach us that we cannot allow hostile powers to establish themselves in countries bordering Israel. Not in Syria, not in Lebanon, and not in Jordan. This is a red line, and once it is crossed, it will not be long before Turkish soldiers are present on Israel’s borders.

Those who underestimate the strength of the Syrian army under the Golan regime do not understand the strategic danger involved. The Golan army is not the crumbling and outdated Assad army; it is an army that is largely composed of jihadists from Al-Qaeda, ISIS, and the ideology of the “Muslim Brotherhood.” This army is not only supported by a hostile military power but is also supported by the majority of the Syrian population, unlike the Assad army, which was largely composed of Alawites, etc. The Golan army is almost 100% composed of the Sunni population, which is the majority in Syria. The potential for recruitment and preparation for war is immense, far greater than that of Assad.

In addition, the Assad army had a secular ideology, while the Golan army is a jihadist army based on the principles of jihad and the Islamic caliphate.

I am not here to praise the Golan army or to scare anyone, but the information I read and see every day on this subject cannot convince me otherwise. This is the same old story in a new guise. The smiles of the Golan regime and the “moderation” they are presenting are not genuine; it is simply a rebranding and a game for appearances. The central power that controls Syria today is commanders of jihadist organizations that have become a full-fledged army. They have not changed, and they will not change. What we have seen from them in the minority areas is just a preview.

The methods of the Golan regime in Damascus are the same methods used by the terrorist organization “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” and “Jaish al-Nasr” in Idlib. Their ideology remains the same, and their aspirations are the same - only they have undergone a “moderate” rebranding that appeals to the West.

The radicalization of the majority also affects the components of the government and the army that are not necessarily jihadists by birth. Just as the radicalization of terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip, which are not Hamas and Islamic Jihad, in reality, the government influences the vast majority, and the radicalization comes with the support of “the people.”

Syria must remain a weakened arena with internal conflicts and civil wars, as in the days of the civil war, and must not return to being a land bridge and a center of jihad that determines the future of the Middle East. Otherwise, Israel’s achievements in weakening the Shiite axis will be in vain and will be replaced by a dangerous jihadist axis, perhaps even more so, with a stranglehold on Israel. The core is Syria, and as the Turks say, whoever controls and establishes themselves in Syria will determine the future of the region for good or for ill.

We do not want a war with Turkey, but we cannot go back on the mistakes of the decades that preceded October 7th. It is better to confront Turkey than to allow it to establish itself in Syria.

Now, it is true that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wants the Ottoman Empire back. And both Syria and Israel were part of it. It’s also true that his government violates the human rights of the Kurdish minority that would love autonomy, if not outright independence. But at this point, this looks like Israel is picking a fight with a peer. One that I will remind you joined an alliance with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. One that Syria is considering joining:

The Syrian Foreign Minister of the Assad regime: “We are seriously considering joining the defense alliance of Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, but a decision on the matter has not yet been made.”

Chananel Aviv on Telegram

Syria would seriously be the junior partner in this. But it would fall under the Pakistani nuclear umbrella and the protection of the Turkish military. And yes, Turkey is also a member of NATO. At the moment, Israel is betting NATO won’t get involved because, well, they are more popular in Europe than Turkey:

Will a Strike on Turkish Bases Trigger NATO Article 5?

Experts note that potential Israeli strikes on Turkish bases in Syria or Northern Cyprus would not trigger NATO’s Article 5. Even if a legal debate arose, geopolitics suggest member states would likely prioritize relations with Israel over Turkey.

Here is how the legal framework of Article 5 actually breaks down:

- Sovereign Borders: The attack must occur directly within official Turkish borders, airspace. Foreign bases or occupied lands do not count

- Defensive Trigger: Turkey must be the victim of an unprovoked, external armed attack, not an aggressor.

I think this is a poor reading of the situation. While Europeans may have some issues with Turkey, if Israel becomes the clear aggressor, more than a few European countries, Italy and Spain for starters, are hitting their limits. It might fracture the alliance, though. This helps Russia.

Read more

Today I want to talk about losses to a country with no navy, and a series of adaptations that may, or may not, work. First, the results are in. That Russian navy has suffered more losses. And if the damage this time is to critical areas like under the waterline, or the keel...they are done. If it's the superstructure, both can be fixed. So I guess stay tuned? But this was also pier-side. I guess that makes transport to a dry dock easier.

Consequences of the attack on the Novorossiysk Naval Base, - Ukrainian OSINT

The “Guards” frigate pr. 11356R “Admiral Makarov” and frigate pr. 11356R “Admiral Essen” suffered critical damage during the attack on the Novorossiysk naval base on August 12, 2026. The ships completely lost their strike potential and combat control capabilities.

Both have been decommissioned for at least a year and require dock repairs.

🔴 FR “Admiral Essen” (b/n 490)

The hit in the bow led to the deformation of the deck and the destruction of the 8-cell UKSK 3S14 module (mines for the Kalibr submarines). The Trebovanie-M BIUS is completely out of order. The demolition of the masts destroyed the antenna posts of the 3C-25E observation radar, the TK-25 electronic warfare complexes, and the Centaur satellite communication domes.

🔴 Admiral Makarov frigate (b/n 499) (flagship)

The hit in the VPU zone provoked an internal detonation. The burning out of the UKSK 3S14 launch shafts was recorded. Similar destruction of the architecture of the Trebovanie-M BIUS (radar, electronic warfare, communications)

So this is where we are. Russia continues to lose naval assets, but before we go to the adaptation, here is the big picture regarding Japan, because this is curious and points to a future for China in the Russian Far East.:

So now let’s get back to the adaptation. The first is an oldie, as in World War I adaptation. Back then, it confused submariners when opening fire on warships in the North Atlantic. And arguably, it did work. So, posting two pictures as well. One from the Great War, the other from the present: first the Great War, second Russia today:

Russian “Alexandrite”-class mine countermeasure vessels with “dazzling camouflage” and anti-drone nets in the port of Baltiysk (Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia).

With the emergence of Ukrainian unmanned boat drones, the Russians adopted a new camouflage scheme in 2023 – a dark nose and stern for the ship, as seen in the third photo.

The OSINT community speculated that this camouflage was intended to deceive the operator of the drone regarding the ship’s true size.

However, this sharply contrasting black and white camouflage is a new development.

Previously, the Russians had experimented with similar “dazzling camouflage” on vehicles, with the aim of confusing drones guided by AI.

It is not clear whether the introduction of this new naval camouflage was motivated by the same considerations.

The photos were published by OSINT researcher Massimo Frantarelli.

@yigal_levin

Confusing AI is essential in this new way of war. Because if you can confuse the drone, you might buy time to save the warship. Or, for that matter, other equipment; remember, for Russians, personnel is not that high a priority. Which brings me to Ukraine’s new Minister of Defense:

The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada has appointed a new Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Yevhen Khmara. He previously headed the “Alpha” Special Operations Center of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), and in the past six months, he served as acting head of the SBU.

As I mentioned before, he is a combat general of the new, younger generation of Ukrainian military officers who has personally experienced the realities of the battlefield, risked his life, went to places from which there was no guarantee of return, led people, and inspired others.

It is known that Khmara is an advocate of an asymmetric approach to warfare.

The “Alpha” unit was involved in one of Ukraine’s most daring operations, “Web,” during which strategic bombers were destroyed and damaged deep within Russian territory, directly on airfields – essentially, irreplaceable losses for Moscow.

The Russians are well aware of all this, and that is why they fear Khmara, understanding that he is a creative and unconventional thinker.

@yigal_levin

Asymmetric warfare in Ukraine is increasingly AI-driven; hence this experiment with Dazzle camo patterns. One reason, and it’s obvious, the numeric difference in personnel. The other, it keeps people alive.

Now Russia is also installing physical anti-drone measures on ships that did not work on aircraft. Hell, the turtle tanks just take a few more drones to be destroyed. Some of this, I suspect, is for crew morale. Some is that Russia has lost the naval war to a country with no navy.

So how is Russia also responding? Well, Ukraine is under another massive attack:

The Russians are now knocking out the lights of Kyiv and the region: they are targeting the region’s energy facilities.

✈️ Several Tu-95MS planes are flying towards the launch positions

Read more

I had to take a few days off with a touch of Bronchitis, mostly on the mend now, but as I jumped into Telegram today, I realized Israel did attack a Syrian base. And they claim they did it to prevent a Turkish buildup. So I want to pay my full attention to this event, because the geopolitics are wild. So first, the attack and claims:

The attack attributed to Israel in Syria:

A senior Israeli official claims that the attack on the Syrian air base in the Idlib area was intended to prevent a Turkish military presence in the area.

A senior Turkish official responded: “There was no Turkish presence at the air base. Israel is inventing excuses to bomb neighboring countries and destabilize the region.” (Barak Ravid)

Yair Goldblatt - Security and Middle East | Security and Middle East on X

Now the Israelis posted a photo of a damaged aircraft-reinforced shelter. There is no aircraft in that shelter. So what is going on here? Partially, it is internal politics. And if there is something Benjamin Netanyahu fears, it is losing power. And margins are so narrow that an attack on Israel might switch enough people to give him another term:

Netanyahu’s present situation is bad enough that slogans and dreary campaign videos are unlikely, by themselves, to transform it. But he does have one source of hope: a serious outbreak of violence involving Arabs. There is, politically speaking, a hierarchy here. The closer the confrontation is to home — first with Arab citizens of Israel, then with Palestinians in the West Bank or Gaza, and then with Israel’s more distant enemies — the greater Netanyahu’s potential political benefit.

Since the Likud first came to power in 1977, almost every major deterioration in Israel’s security environment — a wave of terrorism, a war, an Israeli military operation, or an attack on Israel — has benefited the right at the ballot box. Menachem Begin’s decision to bomb Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981; the outbreak of the first intifada in 1987; the collapse of the Camp David peace talks in 2000; the devastating suicide-bombing campaign before the 1996 election: Again and again, Likud and the Israeli right collected a political dividend.

It does not necessarily matter who was prime minister when the crisis began, or who bears responsibility for it. When Israelis feel threatened, public opinion becomes more hawkish. A small portion of the electorate — small, but in Israel’s closely divided politics often decisive — moves to the right.

October 7 was a watershed for many reasons. One of the smaller ones was political. For most of the previous two decades, Netanyahu had shaped Israel’s policy toward Gaza. He and his allies developed what Israelis call a conceptzia — an entrenched strategic assumption — that Hamas’s continued rule in Gaza could serve Israeli interests and that destroying the organization was neither necessary nor desirable. That conception ended catastrophically on October 7. And for once, a segment of the Israeli right turned against Netanyahu because of a security failure.

Between Us

Why Netanyahu Put Zohran Mamdani on a Billboard in Tel Aviv

Israelis go to the polls on October 27, in the first election since the Hamas invasion of October 7, 2023, and the wars that followed it in Gaza, in Lebanon, and against Iran. By the standards of Israeli politics this is remarkable: the outgoing Knesset is the first since 1988 to serve out a full four-year term rather than collapsing early…

Read more

18 days ago · 51 likes · 14 comments · Nadav Eyal

I recommend the rest of this. It’s from an Israeli political reporter. So look at this through internal politics, too. Bibi needs to be reelected to avoid prison, or that board of inquiry.

So the attack on that Syrian Air Force base was meant to provoke a response. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is not taking the bait. And the US is condemning this attack as well.

So let’s pull back a tad from the attack and look at the bigger picture here. Israel is trying to pick a fight with a peer power. It’s one that also just signed a mutual defense agreement with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia:

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement, signed by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye on 7 August 2026, formalises a key geopolitical realignment under way since the Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023. Israel’s and Iran’s acts of aggression have alarmed all three countries, prompting them to close ranks.

The Makkah agreement builds on the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement endorsed by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia in September 2025, as well as the quadrilateral consultative mechanism that includes the three signatories and Egypt (R-4 Group). Its core provision stipulates that an armed attack against any one member of the alliance shall be regarded as an attack against them all. Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan reportedly described this commitment as ‘technically the same’ as NATO’s Article 5, while noting that the allies would determine through consultation the degree and form of assistance provided.

The pact reflects the three middle powers’ intent to reinforce collective deterrence in a region destabilised by Israeli and Iranian belligerence. Israel has demonstrated its willingness to take military action regionwide. It carried out an airstrike against Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar and launched two wars with Iran – the 2025 Twelve-Day War and 2026 United States–Israel campaign – in the span of less than a year. In turn, Iran has directed the bulk of its retaliation against its Gulf neighbours, launching pernicious attacks – estimated at over 7,000 missiles and drones – against civilian and military infrastructure while blockading shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Of course, Tel Aviv presented this as a new Sunni alliance against her, but Pakistan is also a nuclear power. And Pakistan threatened Israel at some point if Israel used nukes in this war with Iran. Arguably, Pakistan is also a peer power. You could argue Iran was not; they are still holding Israel at bay.

Enter NATO

Turkey is also a NATO member, and if Israel went absolutely unhinged, they could invoke Article 5. Mind you, the only time this has happened was after 9/11.

So if we really want to completely worst-case this, we could see Israel facing NATO and Pakistan. Personally, I don’t think it will get this bad, but my job is to offer worst-case scenarios at times.

So how crazy is Netanyahu? This is circulating with Likud loyalists:

Dear Likud activists,

This year’s primaries are more important than ever. We must build a list that will represent us well in the upcoming elections and ensure that Netanyahu remains Prime Minister. Prime Minister Netanyahu is the only one who can withstand international pressures, and he needs a winning team by his side!

Sincerely,

The “United Likud” Campaign Team.

It is about keeping Netanyahu in power, so full circle into that explanation of Israeli politics. Fear is a normal human emotion, and it tends to cloud rational thought. In this case, firing this man from the prime minister’s office is the rational thing to do.

So there is another geopolitical consequence to this:

Syria possesses 50 tons of uranium. While this is not enriched uranium, it is still a very large quantity.

Syria states that the material and the entire nuclear program will now be under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), but will remain in Syria’s possession.

Syria is now demanding a civilian nuclear program: in other words, to be exactly like Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, which all have such programs.

Amitai Stein.

Originally, Syria was going to surrender this material. And if this is under the IAEA, that’s fine. But this will create a wave of fear in Israel, and the cycle continues. And by that, I mean the cycle of escalation.

Read more

There is an old saying that goes something like this. Amateurs talk tactics; professionals study logistics. It’s attributed to General Omar Bradley, and it talks about a reality of war. You can have the grandest of strategic plans. Without the fuel, water, food, ammunition, and other essentials, your plan will ultimately fail.

Another military strategist put it this way: Napoleon Bonaparte: An army marches on its stomach.

So what about Bradley and the US military? He belonged to a military machine that brought logistics down to the finer points of life. US troops had access to warm food even relatively close to the line. Troops complained about C-Rats and K-Rats, because griping about food is always a thing in any military. But compared to either allied counterparts or enemy armies, US troops were well fed, even if it wasn't tasty enough. And yes, the Navy produced ice cream in the Pacific throughout the war. Think about this for a second: the Navy had dedicated barges whose job was to produce ice cream, which requires milk, fruit or other flavors, sugar, and salt. Now look at USN sailors on the Lincoln eating midrats made of cereal, but no milk, because they hadn't seen milk in over three months.

To be fair, replenishment at sea rarely includes milk, shelf-stable or otherwise. The navy usually gets fresh stores at port. Those port calls also give crews a chance to blow off steam. But they could have brought in powdered milk. And yes, they do make their own water. However, even shower water is a problem.

So why is it that the US Navy, for example, was able to produce ice cream in the Pacific theater during the Second World War, but can’t do this anymore? May I suggest privatizing what was a military function? And this started in the 1990s. Incidentally, a certain military site is down for maintenance, which is odd, so I'm using the screen cap from AI, as much as I hate to do that. It’s the relevant site for logistics. I don’t have to wonder why, though.

So here is the thing. After 9/11, we had to spin up to war instantly. So the issues you are hearing about now happened back then too. How do I know? My husband was deployed at the time. He was serving aboard a USN submarine in the western Pacific. And things logistics companies decided they could buy in theater included things like milk and toilet paper. The milk was not that bad of a bet. Let’s just say Saudi Arabia, for example, has a few large cow herds. Toilet paper, though, requires wood pulp. This region isn't known for large tracts of forest. Ok, not within human memory.

Lima Beans and Washing Machines

So how bad did the situation get back then? At some point, the only thing the crew still had that was edible was Lima beans. The cooks were creative with them, but Lima beans do not make for a balanced diet. And to this day, Lima beans have been banished from the household menu.

We got lists of things the crew was desperate for. Because, of course, Navy wives, more than a few on food stamps- that’s the other reality of Navy life- had the money to spare on detergent. And the machines on board require low-sudsing detergent, not Tide. Guess what you could get at the PX? So more than a few washing machines also failed. Those machines are not cheap.

Oh, double-A and triple-A batteries were also sent, because you don’t just need them for Walkmans, but mission-critical flashlights. And yes, the list included candy to deal with cratering morale, and to supplement calories.

The big difference between the present mess and post 9/11 was that sailors had a clear mission. So morale survived contact with this logistics mess better than it has right now. I still don’t know what this war is about. I am sure sailors on the front lines have even less of an idea. I mean, I have time to look up reasons. They don’t.

The other reality is that email was a newfangled thing, especially in the sub service. So all these issues pretty much stayed within the community.

A wider lens

This is not about feeding a single sub crew. That’s just a symptom. It’s not about a carrier crew right now either. It is about the system. The fact we are hearing about this is partially a different culture. But it is also because nobody is happy with this war of choice. But it’s beyond cereal for mid-rats. It's also about expensive systems we've run out of. For example, long-range precision munitions.

We are not officially at war; ergo, as much as Donald Trump wants to, he still can’t really invoke the Defense Production Act. And let’s face it, using a 1.2 million system to bring down a 50 thousand drone makes no economic sense.

So here is the lesson China is learning. The US can’t supply its troops with the basics, let alone replenish ammo stocks. They already knew this about Russia, so now they know. The two Cold War opponents have similar issues.

And in 2006, Donald Rumsfeld resigned after deep congressional losses. Whether then-President George W Bush forced him out, or he was a tad more honorable than I remember, is a good question. But one reason was the infamous logistics issues. Will Pete Heqseth suffer a similar fate? He should. But the real lesson is that we need professionals to bring logistics back in-house. And we need to remember that ice cream is not frivolous. I am sure General Bradley would have views on this mess. I know I do.

The military shouldn’t be rated on just how many troops and guns it has. By that metric, the US does well. But also in how well it can supply milk to a carrier at sea. Doing it for profit means that some people are getting insanely wealthy, and not doing the most basic logistics, implying keeping those bodies fed. Because hungry, malnourished, tired sailors will make mistakes. We are lucky we have not seen anybody killed. It’s a matter of time. I wonder how long before we start hearing of scurvy?

I think it is important to recognize that Russia’s crisis is deepening. And the hits on refineries are making the war very real for Russians, as we have seen in the past. And to be brutal, this is a good thing. Russians, and it is cultural, tend to care only about themselves; sometimes it extends to a close circle of family, less so to friends. This is a feature of a society that requires people to survive the worst kinds of conditions, not one or two generations. But for many.

Some historians blame this on the Mongols, who were not a gentle occupying force. Cruelty, for many of the Mongols, was the point. Cruelty is the point in Russia. And Russians have faced famines, poor infrastructure, and other bad conditions for hundreds of years. They have also faced bad governments whose only job is to self enrich, or make their lives much better than those of the common people.

So when you read this, think of this long history, and how the Russian government is trying to blame the West for all this. And of course, Russophobia. The attack on Ukraine has nothing to do with this. However, Russians are starting to link the current issues at Wildberries and with gas to the war. As we saw the other day, they are starting to question the Special Military Operation. Because it is now personally affecting them:

“Worst day in two weeks”: The fuel crisis in Russia 💩 has intensified. The region with the lowest availability of gasoline is the one governed by the richest governor 😄.

As of August 12, gasoline is available at only 34.9% of gas stations across the country, which is 23.1% less than a week ago. This data was published by the fuel availability monitoring service “GdeBENZ” 💩, which called Wednesday “the worst day in two weeks.”

▪️ The situation has worsened even in Moscow. Although there is still a more than threefold difference between the regions and the capital, gasoline is available without long queues at only 47.1% of gas stations. The capital has been overtaken by Tatarstan (51.5%).

▪️ The region with the worst situation is Lipetsk Oblast, with only 14% of gas stations having available gasoline. The availability has fallen fourfold in a week. Governor Igor Artamonov is the highest-earning regional head among those running for the Duma (with an annual income of 169 million rubles), who bought a luxury BMW X5 during the “war with the West.” Yesterday, he stated that improvements are not expected in the next couple of weeks, and new deliveries are not planned. The billionaire governor urged drivers to reduce their trips.

▪️ The situation is almost as bad in Ryazan Oblast, with a figure of 15%, where the availability has halved in a week. In Smolensk and Kaluga Oblasts, the figures are 22% each. In the latter, there are no restrictions on gasoline sales: the governor stated that strict measures would only irritate people.

▪️ The crisis has also reached Volgograd Oblast, headed by Hero of Russia 💩 and participant in the special operation to seize Crimea, Andrey Bocharov. In the past 24 hours, it has lost 42%, the sharpest drop in the country. Currently, gasoline is available at only a quarter of the region’s gas stations. Bocharov held a meeting in the context of the pre-election campaign, where he spoke about the interests of the residents and the development of the region, but he forgot to mention the lack of fuel. Instead, he announced the creation of a memorial complex for participants in the invasion of Ukraine on Mamayev Kurgan.

▪️ The government does not see any deterioration: Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak assured that there are enough fuel reserves, and that the demand in the market is being artificially inflated.🤦‍♂️🤡 #НетБензина

This is not a joke, and it explains why they banned the last liberal party in Russia, because they are the only pro-peace party. Having real world data of how unpopular the war is a threat to the government. Because let’s face it, Vladimir Putin cannot allow this to become a real thing for Russians. Now the war is continuing to come home.

So how about Wildberries? It is not just warehouses any longer, but also ground logistics:

Ukrainian military targets Wildberries trucks heading to Crimea

Ukrainian military forces have begun targeting Wildberries trucks transporting goods to Crimea. In at least two instances, successful strikes against the vehicles have been reported, while in one case, a drone missed its target. On August 4th, the OSINTtechnical account reported the destruction of a Wildberries truck and published images of the aftermath, along with the location of the incident. On June 20th, the commander of the 422nd Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment of the LUFTWAFFE, Nikolai Kuleshnyk, reported that Ukrainian drones had attacked Wildberries trucks. He stated that the aim of the attack was to disrupt Russian logistics, according to the 24 channel. Another incident occurred on May 24th. According to the “Military Informant” channel, a Ukrainian RAM-2X drone attempted to attack a Wildberries truck traveling to Crimea along the R-280 “Novorossiya” highway. However, the drone missed the truck and instead struck a roadside toilet.

The attacks on trucks are part of Ukraine’s operation to weaken Russian logistics. Throughout June, Ukrainian forces reportedly struck approximately 600 trucks, including 80 fuel tankers, according to “Krym.Realii.” As a result, Crimea has been experiencing a fuel crisis and problems with food supplies for over two months. In response, Russian authorities have imposed limits on the sale of gasoline and diesel fuel to individuals and organizations, and fuel prices have increased significantly.

The trucks are now targets. Consider this: this is like hitting an Amazon truck. And this is happening on the road to Crimea, and this is part of the siege. That siege continues to deepen, and Crimea is becoming a liability for Russia increasingly. The celebrations in 2014 feel hollow at this point. And that is going to turn this war on its head.

Now there is more about logistics, and this is via Yigal Levin, because it is an incredible post. It betrays how deep in trouble the Russian Army is. And if I am reading this right, logistics are crashing, and at some point it makes the war impossible to sustain. Because if troops don’t have food and water, they cannot continue to fight. Incidentally, we are having issues feeding sailors right now, so it is not just the RuAF:

OSINT researcher Jompy attempted to calculate the potential effects of Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics deep behind enemy lines.

He started with the assumption that the total number of Russian Armed Forces personnel in Ukraine is currently estimated at around 732,477.

On average, armies need to transport approximately 200 kilograms of supplies per soldier per day (ranging from food to large-caliber ammunition – of course, different units have different needs, and 200 kilograms is an average).

Jompy suggests that a military truck can typically carry an average of 10 tons of cargo, meaning that the Russians need at least 14,569 trucks in daily operations to supply their forces.

The researcher notes that the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) alone has reported destroying 656 trucks deep behind enemy lines in July, and that they are not the only ones using drones to strike.

In total, the SBU reports 3,675 destroyed and 834 damaged vehicles of all types in a single month, both in the tactical zone and deep behind enemy lines.

The shortage of supplies is already acutely felt by Russian troops on the front lines. Jompy cites an example where Ukrainian forces captured a T-72 tank, and the Russians were forced to abandon the tank due to a lack of fuel.

Of course, the Russians are trying to replenish their heavy losses, and Jompy attempted to calculate some of the effects of changes in tactics and replenishment capabilities.

He notes that Russian logistics have already been reorganized: with the introduction of HIMARS, they had to shift a large portion of transportation from rail to road.

The systematic campaign to destroy air defense systems in Crimea has allowed Ukraine to strike ships, cutting off Russian supply lines and making the route from Taganrog to the Kherson region the main artery.

According to the researcher, a significant portion of Russian reserves lies in the use of light vehicles, including the infamous “UAZ” vans.

However, the cargo capacity of a “UAZ” is ten times less than that of a truck, which means an inevitable reduction in the volume of cargo transported. Furthermore, logistics within 30 kilometers of the front line rely on foot soldiers.

The researcher also notes that the Russians had approximately 50,000-60,000 trucks in storage before the war – however, many of them have already been reactivated, and many others are in poor technical condition.

The Russians also produce about 5,000 “KAMAZ” and “Ural” trucks annually, but some of them are used for the needs of the civilian economy.

In this situation, the Russians may start to requisition trucks from the civilian sector – but the civilian sector is already chronically suffering from a shortage of vehicles and drivers.

Another alternative would be to purchase vehicles from China and other countries, but this would also be a heavy burden on the already troubled Russian economy.

Ultimately, the researcher believes that the problems with Russian logistics will worsen with further destruction of trucks, and that losses can only be replenished through difficult means.

For this reason, Jompy believes that a potential wave of mobilization in Russia will not bring the Russians the desired results, because they will not be able to adequately supply the increased number of soldiers.

On the other hand, the researcher reminds us that during the current war, tactics have often changed rapidly, and it is important to remember that the enemy is always trying to develop countermeasures to any challenges.

@yigal_levin

He reached the same conclusion I reached. When Russia mobilizes, because, of course, they will, getting troops fed and equipped will not happen. However, Russia may go all in with the Great Patriotic War experience and have them get things they need from the dead. It did work in the Second World War, partially because of American trucks and SPAM. Meaning, after the US joined the war effort, Lend-Lease helped with logistics. And that was the hero of the war; without Lend-Lease, Moscow would have fallen. And the Russians would have lost at least European Russia. This is not me saying it. This is Russians themselves saying it:

Read more

The first thing I want to cover today is the idea that a mobilization is already underway. Of course, the regions where this is happening are not precisely filled with the well-connected or wealthy. So it is more meat for the meat grinder, because Russia cannot get enough troops to reconstitute units. Fun fact: units have not left the front line since the beginning of the war. However, most of these units are filled with new people because casualties are so high that they just bring in replacements. This betrays something different about Russia and its way of war. So a marine unit is the same exact unit, just with a different numbering system. At this point, most of her personnel are new or newer. The people who have a better chance of survival are the administrative logistics troops that tend to stay in the rear.

So when you read this, bear that in mind. They need bodies to replace the dead. And they do not care that the life expectancy of new troops is measured in minutes. On paper, that means the unit was reconstituted. I just hope these poor bastards, who may not be willing participants, at least get money for the family:

Compulsory mobilization begins in Omsk, following Penza and Ulyanovsk

In Omsk, men are being detained on the streets for forced deployment to the war in Ukraine. According to relatives of 31-year-old Dmitry S., on August 8th, he was sitting on a bench with a bottle of beer when several people in civilian clothes approached him, restrained him, and took him to an unknown location.

Later, the man reported that he was at the “Sirius 55” military service recruitment center, where he was forced to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense under duress. “He said they made documents and bank cards for him. They forced him to sign the contract. His passport and military ID are at home. He is married and has a regular job,” relatives reported. They contacted the prosecutor’s office, but were told to gather additional documents and return.

A similar incident occurred in Omsk in July. Then, the police detained a city resident near a bus stop: he was walking home from work and was in a state of mild intoxication, according to the son of the detained man. According to him, his father was hit in the ribs and taken to precinct No. 5 on Moskovka, where for almost two days they tried to persuade him to sign a contract, using physical and psychological pressure. The man refused and was only released after relatives reported his disappearance.

So we are at the point where either the Russians are testing the waters to see what the reaction will be. Or we are already seeing a mobilization in the shadows. And to be brutally honest, it is probably both. Russians are not really protesting this, particularly because fear is a powerful thing. And the Russian government has removed Yabloko, the apple party, from the ballot. The only party running on a peace platform. So read this as you will. I do not think Vladimir Putin wants to give Russians a chance to tell him, " We are opposed to this war, even in tightly controlled elections, where results are already determined:

Russia’s Supreme Court on Monday canceled the registration of the liberal Yabloko party’s federal slate of candidates for next month’s State Duma elections.

In a high-stakes hearing, the court granted a lawsuit filed by the small nationalist party Rodina, which accused Yabloko of receiving foreign funding, violating copyright law and promoting “extremism.”

The Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko from the parliamentary elections primarily for alleged copyright violations during campaign activity. Election authorities and state prosecutors said they also documented the violations.

In the court’s view, campaign materials linked to Yabloko’s website used protected intellectual property without acquiring the proper rights or permissions. This included song lyrics, film footage, photographs and even images generated by ChatGPT.

The ruling removes Russia’s oldest liberal party — and what was the only registered party campaigning on a pro-peace platform — from the nationwide party-list ballot.

Russia is at this point a kleptocracy, and even in the middle of a war, which may expand to make it even more urgent, the kleptocracy continues to take shape. It is not that it continues to take hold, because it is deeply entrenched at this point. This is just another day ending in Y for who you know and what benefits you. Assuming you support the dear leader and send him his cut. In Mexico, we used to call this mordida, and every one of these came with a cut going up the chain:

Nationalized Tambov Distillery Sold to a Putin Friend for Half Price

“Rossspiritprom” purchased 72.87% of the shares of the nationalized Tambov distillery “Amber Talvis” for 1.94 billion rubles. This is the minimum price, twice less than the initial price of 3.89 billion rubles set by Rosimushchestvo, according to “Vedomosti,” citing the auction protocol. “Rossspiritprom” was the only participant in the auction. After the deal, the company’s stake in the enterprise will increase from approximately 25.5% to about 98.4%.

“Rossspiritprom” is the largest producer of ethyl alcohol in Russia. It owns eight factories with a capacity of 22.5 million deciliters per year, as well as two service companies. According to The Insider, the beneficiary of the company is billionaire Arkady Rotenberg, a friend of President Vladimir Putin. Previously, “Amber Talvis” belonged to businessman Yuri Shefler. In July 2024, the billionaire’s assets were transferred to the state treasury at the request of the Prosecutor General’s Office, which accused him of financing the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Shefler himself and the companies controlled by him were recognized as an “extremist organization.”

And I see Arkady Rotenberg, a good friend of Putin, going back to St Petersburg and the Ozero Dacha Cooperative, is coming on top again. It is good to know the boss, I guess. And they are very good friends, you scratch my back, I scratch yours. It is as it’s always been.

This is precisely how Oligarchs become very wealthy and, in some cases, above the law. Yes, I am betting that if Rotenberg were stopped by a cop, name-dropping would be enough to avoid a ticket. I included this to show you how these relationships are built. There are other recent examples.

Read more

Before I go on with my observations, this is today, Talking Feds with Ann Applebaum. As I usually do, I try to share my expertise. Her take is far more comprehensive:

Now, with no further, as we all know, Donald Trump backed down at seemingly the last minute of carrying out an attack. As always, Trump Always Chickens Out, aka TACO. This has significant consequences for the country's standing after Trump leaves office. And I do have my doubts that his MAGA base fully grasps these effects. On the other hand, China does. And what China perceives will matter for the next two generations. After all, China is a country that has a long view of history. Not unlike Iran, by the way. Both are old civilizations, and that matters when you are looking at this at a policy level. However, more proximally, Trump is now concerned about the strait, which, I will remind you, was open before the first bombs fell. And anybody with a modicum of experience in the area was expecting Iran to close. So it is no longer nuclear policy, just open the damn straight. And in a way, Iran (and Oman) will do this, for a price:

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Baghaei:

«Iran’s role in managing the future of the Strait of Hormuz and ensuring its security, including measures related to safety and mine clearance, is clear. This issue is being pursued within the framework of cooperation between the two coastal states, namely Iran and Oman.

According to the agreements, previous routes will be replaced by a central and secure route, which will serve as a temporary route until a new separation plan is reached. According to statements made, the southern route has never been a permitted or safe route. The main reason for the escalation of conflicts since August 17th was the United States’ violation of its commitments and its insistence on allowing commercial and military vessels to pass through this area with their transponders turned off.

The main goal of the current diplomatic negotiations is to reach a sustainable understanding with Oman to ensure complete security in this vital waterway.»

Realize, this also means that United States Navy vessels will not get authorization to go through the strait, unless, I suppose, it is on the way out of the region. I suspect US civilian vessels will have issues as well. This is a huge change, and let me tell you, there are a number of straits around the world that might as well start charging tolls.

Freedom of navigation is a core principle of US Foreign Policy. This is not new, and it’s been a guarantee, if you will, over the last 80 years or so. This is why we ran freedom of navigation operations during the Iran-Iraq war, which effectively kept Iran from doing exactly what it is doing right now. Alas, it is not just mining anymore. Unless the United States controls the coastline, there is no way we can enforce this right now. That would mean infantry troops, and a deep swatch of that coastline, because of the fight profile of things like Shaheed drones, and not even then. The strategic posture has changed a tad from the 1980s. And this new age of asymmetric warfare caught the US by surprise.

For the record, it did not catch any in the OSINT community by surprise, because we have been screaming about this for years. We have watched a new form of warfare take shape. One that is cheap and easy to do. It is very accessible to even small resistance movements worldwide with few resources. This happened overnight in Libya, which has been in a low-level civil war for some time. I am using this as an example of how war is evolving. And how it will make all calculations change:

Al-Mutrad Development and Local Services and the North Zawia Municipality confirmed yesterday that following the drone attack on the Zawia Oil Refinery, Zawia’s Al-Harsha Water Desalination Plant was also hit by a drone.

The puncture in at least one main pipeline has put the water plant out of service.

North Zawia Municipality condemned the attacks and called for a full local and international investigation.

The Crisis Committee of the West Zawia Municipality conducted a field inspection

Al-Mutrad Development and Local Services reported that the Crisis Committee of the West Zawia Municipality conducted a field inspection yesterday morning at the Al-Harsha Water Desalination Plant to assess the damage caused when one of the plant’s main pipelines and its storage tank were targeted (by a drone) at dawn yesterday.

It is not just about stopping Russia anymore. And the technology is quickly spreading around the world. It is not just mid-tier powers, like Iran, using the technology extensively. It is bush wars. It is a drug war. And this will make the 21st century a lot more fun am afraid, and I expect to see drones used in the US and Western Europe as well, as we already have seen.

So what other surprises does Iran have? And while you might want to use some salt with their claims, the reality is that they are keeping a global power at bay. So here is one of those claims:

IRGC announces new mid-flight course-correction missile technology

Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spokesman Hossein Mohebbi announced that Iran has developed advanced missile capabilities allowing projectiles to alter their trajectories mid-flight to bypass adversary air defense systems.

Speaking in northern Iran’s Qazvin during a ceremony marking Journalists’ Day, Mohebbi stated that domestic military technology has evolved beyond fixed-trajectory launches.

According to statements published by IRNA, the spokesman emphasized that these upgraded guidance systems were deployed during recent hostilities to target critical power infrastructure.

Mohebbi framed the developments within the context of ongoing technological warfare, asserting that strategic objectives extend past physical destruction to systematically disrupt opponent decision-making and defense frameworks

Now read that as many times as you need. Iran, which we thoroughly underestimated, is adjusting and adapting in the middle of the war, while we cannot restock PAC-3 interceptors and other very expensive munitions.

This came through yesterday, and it is telling as well:

🇺🇸🇮🇷👀 WSJ: Trump has told senior aides he may be willing to end the Iran war without securing a nuclear deal, provided the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens.

☢️ He believes Iran’s nuclear program has been damaged enough that it cannot meaningfully recover during his presidency.

So Trump is willing to declare victory and go home. This is textbook Trump, but the consequences at the geopolitical level are what they are. Nobody will ever trust us again. Ok, not at least for the duration of my lifetime. I will not say ever, because history is a long thing, going back at least ten thousand years, but history does have echoes.

Read more

Russia has a tradition of engaging in war at a level below a kinetic response. It is known as the Gerasimov Doctrine, but it goes back much longer. During the Cold War, they did this often, testing boundaries using spies, active measures, and deep penetration of enemy societies. This has been brought to the modern period, and Western governments seem to have forgotten some of the lessons of the Cold War. So today I woke up to this, which I realize most people will ignore. However, this should not be ignored. It is a test, and it is reconnaissance establishing response in the West, both military and social:

Two unidentified drones were spotted flying over a Bundeswehr military base in Mechernich, Germany, at around 10:00 p.m. on Thursday, - DIE ZEIT

Russia likely has people in the West who can go active on a moment's notice. Remember how many Russians left in 2022? Most legitimately left because they wanted to avoid the draft or the war. They disagreed with the war. But the reality is that in that population flow, Russia inserted spies and other people who could help rebuild their networks in the West. This is what Russia has done for a long time. This is not a new pattern, even if we seem to act as if it were. It is not new, and a minimum level of suspicion must be maintained with migrants, because a few did not leave Russia for the reasons stated.

And there are not many of them. It sucks that we have to keep a level of suspicion toward mostly innocent people. And if you know Russian history, you know this has been the case for many generations. Alas, for the sins of a few, we need to keep our eyes on all.

Russia also uses locals who, for ideological or financial reasons, join the Russian cause. So drone operators may very well be German. So take that into account. And we must act as if we are on the leading edge of a war. Then we have this warning:

Russia could attack NATO using Ukrainian drones.

The Lithuanian Minister of Defense, Arvydas Anušauskas, stated that Moscow is considering the possibility of launching unconventional attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region.

“We have information that Russia is considering the possibility of carrying out unconventional kinetic attacks against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region. It is quite likely that Russia could use drones of Ukrainian manufacture for this purpose,” he said.

According to Lithuanian authorities, Russia has not yet made a final decision on whether to carry out such an operation. Nevertheless, Lithuania has already increased security at a number of critical infrastructure facilities.

And this is not the only warning. Per the Telegraph, US Intelligence expects a Russian test or attack soon. All I am going to say is welcome to the party, boys and girls. We have been seeing signs of this for months, and it is just getting worse. So now, US Intelligence is there. Never mind that the President of the United States won’t know how to react to this crisis. In fact, I expect him not to react because he does not want to anger Vladimir Putin.

However, the Special Military Operation is no longer as popular as it once was. Partially, the war has come home in ways that every day Russians, not just military families, can deny at this point:

For the first time since the start of the war, half of Russians no longer consider the invasion of Ukraine to be “successful.”

The Ukrainian campaign of long-range strikes, the fuel crisis, the burning Wildberries warehouses, and the growing rumors of an upcoming mobilization in the fall have all contributed to a decline in support for the war within Russian society. For the first time since the invasion of Ukraine, half of Russian citizens do not consider Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” to be “successful,” according to a survey by the Levada Center.

In July 2026, only 8% of those surveyed described Putin’s “special military operation” as “very successful” – a record low in over four years of research. The same percentage (8%) described it as “extremely unsuccessful,” 20% as “rather unsuccessful,” and 22% “refused to answer.”

At the same time, the proportion of respondents who were not afraid to tell sociologists that they “rather do not support” or “definitely do not support” the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine reached 21%, which is also a record since the beginning of the war. The proportion of those who “definitely” support the war has fallen to 34%, although in the first month of the invasion, it exceeded half.

A series of Ukrainian strikes, targeting oil refineries and then the logistics hubs of Russia’s largest online marketplace, have brought the war into the civilian economy, posing questions that the authorities are not ready to answer, notes Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik.

The main electoral motive that prompted people to vote en masse for Putin a quarter of a century ago was the desire for security, a peaceful life, free from explosions and killings, where homes do not collapse and cities do not burn, notes political scientist Abbas Gallyamov.

But Putin, who promised security, has instead led to its complete destruction, Gallyamov observes: “In today’s Russia, no one can feel safe – neither a general going to a restaurant to celebrate his anniversary; nor a vacationer finally relaxing on the beach in Gelendzhik; nor a resident of the Moscow region peacefully sleeping in their bed during a nighttime drone attack; nor an employee of a Wildberries warehouse.”

That it takes people noticing from where they sit on the couch is true. However, better late than never, I suppose. And given that the Levada Center is public polling, saying what you think may have some possible bad consequences. This matters. So Putin promised people would stay there, don’t say a thing, and you will live your life... but now you can’t get pet food at Wildberries.

The sense of safety has been shattered, and it does not matter what society; once safety is shattered, the social contract begins to change. And given that Russians, for the most part, never showed an ounce of empathy to Ukrainians, well, there is nobody who feels that sorry for Russians. Some people's hobby is just watching Russians complain on Telegram. I just note this for the sociological meaning: Russia is starting to reach a reckoning.

However, given that Russians are crying over Wildberries, while still celebrating attacks on Kyiv, no wonder people really have no empathy. There are Russians you can have empathy for; for the most part, though, they no longer live in Russia. Then there is this economic reality about the strikes:

“A wave of bankruptcies is coming.” The Kremlin has no money to save Wildberries sellers.

Russia does not have enough funds to save the sellers affected by the Wildberries marketplace, a source close to the Kremlin told Reuters.

According to the source, what happened to the marketplace, which controls half of the e-commerce market in the country, is “a serious blow to the economy.” “There will be a wave of bankruptcies. No one has the money to support the sellers. We are talking about hundreds of billions of rubles,” the source said.

At least 20 of Wildberries’ logistics hubs have been attacked by drones, and some have been completely destroyed. As a result, the company has lost 1.18 million square meters of warehouse space, or about a fifth of its total capacity, according to Reuters calculations. Tens of thousands of entrepreneurs have been affected, losing their goods and the ability to sell them.

Russian authorities are discussing a support package for sellers, which, however, does not include direct payments to those affected. Options being considered include loan holidays, preferential loans, and tax breaks.

The problem is also that a significant portion of the sellers on Wildberries are individual entrepreneurs (IEs). And according to the law, they are liable for their debts with their assets. In other words, those who have lost goods through no fault of their own, and who have loans, may lose all or most of their assets. The Chamber of Commerce and Industry has proposed to the government to change the bankruptcy procedure to prevent such a situation, sources at “Vedomosti” told.

Russian authorities know that this is a bomb that could go off. Because this is no longer the hero of the SVO, preferably still missing, likely dead in Ukraine. This is Olga down the street, and Ivan, who relies on this business model to keep the lights on. These are the people who, in many cases, supported United Russia, but the social contract is gone. So, lack of bread and electricity, prepared for a long war; no longer SMO... Russians are ever so slowly waking up to this reality.

And if Russia does test NATO, and NATO responds, there will be a need for a mass mobilization. In some ways, changing the war from a limited special military operation that was supposed to last three days, to a civilizational war (for real) could allow Russian leaders to completely close down the country.

That they do not have the logistics, uniforms, small arms, or what have you to equip the forcibly mobilized troops is another story. Russia squirrels everything away. So expect to see more older Soviet kits as this continues down that path. And we have already seen quite a bit of late soviet kit. And who can forget the Mosin–Nagant earlier in the war with Donbas units? And to be fair, that is a fantastic sniper rifle. It is also a good hunting rifle.

In the Great Patriotic War, part of the Russian mythology, partly based on reality, units were quickly assembled and thrown into the meat grinder. Training was sketchy at best. Because that training was done on the front lines by those who survived to the next battle. So if Russia tests NATO and gets a surprise because it does not expect the West to react, it will be grand. And we are walking every so closer to reacting:

Polish Foreign Ministry calls for discussion on possibility of intercepting Russian missiles over Ukraine

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has called for a discussion on the possibility of intercepting Russian missiles while they are still over Ukrainian territory, rather than waiting for them to potentially enter Polish airspace. According to PAP, the diplomat stated that this issue “requires a serious discussion” and should not become “a hostage to partisan rivalry” against the backdrop of internal political disagreements in Poland. The reason for his statement was the recent remarks by former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (the “Development Plus” party), who spoke out against the transfer of another batch of missiles to Ukraine for Patriot systems, which Kyiv needs to destroy Russian ballistic missiles, and suggested the possibility of disbanding the Polish Armaments Group (PGZ).

Sikorski emphasized that Kyiv has been subjected to massive strikes by Russian ballistic missiles for several days in a row, “against which there is currently no defense,” and the number of civilian casualties continues to rise. “Can we be sure that it would be better to shoot down these Russian missiles over Ukraine, rather than, perhaps, later over Poland? This is a topic for a very serious discussion that should not become a hostage to partisan rivalry,” said the Polish Foreign Minister.

If Poland does this, we are quickly moving outside the gray zone. Realize, a missile “strayed” into Polish territory, so this is becoming more real by the day. That is, war is coming further beyond Ukraine. As I wrote the other day, armies can train for war. They can equip themselves for war, but no soldier is truly ready for war. War is not the fantasy heroic place you and I see in the movies. War is hell, which is one reason European leaders have been trying to avoid it. The last European war left most of the continent in ruins, and for obvious reasons, they do not want to repeat this experience.

Would this be Article 5? No. Because Poland would be extending air cover, not because she was attacked. I could argue ten ways to Sunday that it should, but the way this is written, it does not. So it also makes things more shady.

Read more

As usual, there are things and statements that tell you how things are going with Russia. And my guess at this time is that we have a hawk faction (that intends to continue the war as long as needed) and a dove faction that is afraid of what the war is doing to Russia. For that, read the statement yesterday from Moscow’s mayor, Sergey Sobyanin. Mind you, only people who are well-connected to the system serve in this capacity in either Moscow or St Petersburg. And I think the reasons are obvious. These two cities are the center of the empire, and have been since the 1700s. For Moscow, much earlier.

So this message from Sergei Lavrov tells me that we have competing messaging, and for the moment, I think the Hawks are winning. Though changing commanders is also telling because Russia is not taking much of Donbas either. And they insist on getting these territories through negotiations because they can’t do it by force of arms. So read this in this light:

Russian Foreign Ministry urges Russians to prepare for a prolonged war

Russia should be prepared for a long continuation of hostilities, as it will not be possible to resolve the war against Ukraine in the near future. This was stated by Rodion Miroshnik, a special envoy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, in an interview with TASS.

According to his statement, “the Westerners have bet on the continuation of the conflict” and “completely reject any means of achieving a peaceful settlement.” Therefore, “all attempts to conduct dialogue are met with the uncompromising desire of Europeans to sabotage any possibility of reaching agreements.” “It is unlikely that this trend will be broken in the near future. Europe will continue to finance Ukraine. And on our side, there must be a readiness for sufficiently long-term military operations, but with a well-thought-out strategy,” the diplomat said.

Earlier, on July 9, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Moscow intends to continue the war until the goals that Vladimir Putin outlined during his speech at the Russian Foreign Ministry in June 2024 are achieved. During that speech, Putin demanded Ukraine’s surrender: the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the entire territory of Donbas, as well as from the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, the recognition of these regions and Crimea as Russian, Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO, and the “demilitarization” and “denazification” of Ukraine.

Now, this war is genocidal in nature. Why? Because Russia wants to destroy Ukraine and Ukrainian culture. This is not new, to be honest. They have tried this for at least 300 years, with campaigns of russification beginning with Peter the Great and Catherine the Great. This is why Russia is attacking things like school textbook warehouses. Books are the heart of any country's culture, which is why they are doing this.

They are also hunting civilians in places like Kherson with drones, and realize that this is not accidental. This is to cause terror and make Ukraine finally give up. We are four years into this, and while Ukraine is exhausted, she is not giving up. Which brings me to the state of equipment and Patriot systems.

As we all know, the president of the United States was going to license PAC-3 interceptors. That Donald Trump waffles on this is not new. However, here is where we are with the Freyja system, from the office of the President of Ukraine:

Our FREYJA program – a joint European anti-ballistic system – is already actively underway. Ten countries are already involved, and more of our partners will join – those capable of providing real support. We’ve already agreed on that. I am grateful to all the companies ready to work within the Anti-Ballistic Coalition. These are leading European companies. Ukraine is capable of producing its missile and launcher, while our partners will provide the necessary components and critical elements – radars, sensors, and everything else required. An anti-ballistic program of our own – one that is truly large-scale – will greatly benefit everyone in Europe.

Today, we went over in detail what else is needed: which steps must be taken by our state and which by our partners so that Ukrainian weapons manufacturers and developers can deliver real results. Only a tiny minority of countries worldwide have developed an anti-ballistic project of this kind for themselves. Ukraine must join this group of nations. We are creating all the necessary conditions to make that happen. Others spent decades developing their systems. Ukraine must do this as quickly as possible, with concrete results already in place by the turn of 2026–2027. Ukraine is also working to develop ballistic missiles of its own. The tests have shown strong potential. We need to turn this into a real weapon.

We expect the system to enter the field by mid-2027. I am going to read between the lines. I think early testing is underway, and we will see these systems deployed before mid-2027. And that will be a good thing. Not only because they will be able to intercept Zircon missiles, which the PAC-3 can do, but they will not depend on the United States for this. And let’s face it, one reason for this is that the United States ran out of these systems due to the Iran war:

Donald Trump has privately expressed displeasure in recent days that information about declining U.S. ammunition stockpiles has become public, - CNN.

The US president believes this creates the impression of US weakness at a critical moment.

Sources also reported that Trump has instructed the Justice Department to identify those he calls “traitors” within the administration who are disseminating such information.

According to CNN, the White House believes the leaks may be coming from administration officials opposed to the war and trying to push the president to withdraw the US from the conflict.

And for once, Trump is correct, but not for the reasons he thinks. We look like a paper tiger at this point as well. However, this is an illegal war that has not been declared. If we were actually in a declared war, he could order all this classified and invoke the Defense Production Act. Alas, we are not there.

So is Trump going to throw Pete Hegseth under the bus? I am going to bet yes. So this is what it is. And again, we now have a different way of war, which Rob Lee has also classified. And we have a new way of war, and I need to share this because we are not ready. Though Iran has learned those lessons:

American military analyst Rob Lee conducted an interview with the commander of a separate special operations company within the International Legion of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Here’s a summary of the key points:

• Before joining military intelligence in 2024, he performed tasks in the Donbas region, participated in the defense of Kyiv, the counteroffensive in the Kherson region, and the fighting for Bakhmut, and is now fighting in the Zaporizhzhia direction.

• According to him, the enemy’s tactics in his sector of the Zaporizhzhia direction have changed significantly in the past year or two. Mass assaults have almost disappeared, and instead, Russian troops are trying to infiltrate and penetrate as deeply as possible into Ukrainian defenses in small groups of two or three people. Russian officers almost never evacuate their own soldiers, demanding that they either complete the mission or die.

• Among the captured Russian servicemen in this area were paratroopers from the Airborne Forces and former “Wagner” mercenaries. According to him, some Russians who managed to penetrate Ukrainian defenses eventually surrendered after spending 10 to 20 days without food or water.

• Drones now determine almost everything on the battlefield. In his personal assessment, at least 80%, and possibly up to 90%, of the losses on both sides in his sector are due to drones. In some cases, from 9 to 12 FPV drones may be used against a single infantryman before the operators decide that the target has been hit.

• In the open terrain of the Zaporizhzhia direction, the effectiveness of snipers has, in his assessment, decreased to about 10% of its previous level. The use of mortars has also become significantly more limited and niche – almost like sniping – due to the expanded area of impact.

• He considers guided aerial bombs (KABs) primarily a means of terror and notes that their effectiveness decreases without accurate coordinates. In one case, eight bombs fell around his position, but they landed not too close and did not cause any damage.

• He is much more concerned about the tactic of using FPV drones to attack civilian transport in Zaporizhzhia. Over several days, drones attacked civilian cars, trolleybuses, and buses. In his assessment, these attacks may be carried out by only one or two enemy teams of operators.

• His company actively uses FPV drones, heavy drones such as the Vampire (which are more often used for logistics within the unit), ground robotic platforms, and light reconnaissance drones.

• The composition of the legion is truly international. His company included soldiers from Norway, the United States, the Netherlands, Canada, Belarus, Nigeria, and Italy. According to his approximate estimate, Ukrainians make up about 40-50% of the personnel of the legion, although this percentage varies depending on the specific unit.

• The selection process is based more on motivation, willingness to work and learn, than on initial physical fitness or military experience. When applying, it is not so important how many push-ups a person can do. The main thing is that after two or three months, he objectively becomes stronger and better masters his specialty.

• Answering a question about the future of special operations forces in NATO countries, he says that such units should become as technologically advanced as possible. The proportion of infantry in them should not exceed 25-30%, and the most important components should be a large fleet of UAVs and the ability to quickly adapt. They should be led by commanders who primarily strive to save the lives of their people.

@yigal_levin

And this new way of war is cheap. It is so cheap that even drug cartels are adopting it. Or for that matter, Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is also something that drives people crazy, because the pressures of the modern battlefield are very different than even war in Afghanistan a decade or two ago. There, the risk was Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs); now it's drones, plus IDSs, and just regular suicide vests. There is no real fear either. So we are where we are.

Read more

First, let me address the attack on Moscow over the weekend. We have two names of the five people who were killed during that attack. They are the son-in-law and another general who was buried in secret. So at least we have one general who was killed, but we do not know the other three names. That matters. Did the Commander in Chief of the Aerospace Forces, Alexander Chaiko, die? If he did, that is two generals for one IED. As I said yesterday, that is the way to make even generals in the heart of the empire watch their backs. They should be doing this already, but that is another story. This is why that attack matters:

Son-in-law of the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces Dies in Moscow Restaurant Explosion

The son-in-law of the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces, Alexander Chaikо, Daniil Peredriy, died as a result of an explosion in the Italian restaurant Balzi Rossi in Moscow on August 1st. Information about his death appeared in the Unified State Register of Individual Entrepreneurs (EGRI), as reported by the “Agency.”

The extract from the register states that the individual entrepreneur’s activity was terminated on August 1, 2026, “due to death.” The publication also discovered that one of Peredriy’s personal documents was declared invalid on August 1st. Journalists found the document number in one of the leaks, but “Agency” did not specify which document it was.

The 27-year-old Peredriy was married to the daughter of the Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces, Maria Chaikо (Peredriy). Previously, a source at “Vedomosti” reported that the 25-year-old Maria may have been injured in the explosion at the restaurant. In a list of the injured published by the Telegram channel “112,” which is associated with law enforcement agencies, Maria P., 25 years old, was listed with a concussion, and Daniil P., 27 years old, with no details about the nature of his injuries. This information has not been officially confirmed.

A homemade explosive device detonated in the Moscow restaurant Balzi Rossi in the evening of August 1st, when it was closed for a private event. According to “Kommersant,” the bomb was disguised as a gift brought in by a female courier. Five people were reported killed: three died at the scene of the explosion, and two more died in the hospital. Nineteen people were injured.

This is why I wanted to share this with you: the war has entered a new phase. And I do not think Vladimir Putin is within reach, but other people definitely are. Because at this point we have news of a third attack, and this attack matters, because it will make Russians question their choice of business:

According to Russian media reports, Vladimir Tkachuk, the director of a drone manufacturing company called “Upyr,” and also the author of the “Obsessed with War” channel, was killed in a car bombing yesterday evening near Yekaterinburg.

Tkachuk was killed in the explosion, which occurred while he was in his car. He was taken to the intensive care unit in critical condition, but later died. His driver, who also served as his bodyguard, did not survive.

The drones produced by Tkachuk’s company began appearing in 2023 and have been actively used against the Ukrainian Armed Forces since then.

@yigal_levin

Yes, this means that business leaders are now targets too. And to be honest, it is not just heads of business. Now it is aircraft in Western Airports as well, and soon (already happened with a cargo plane in 2023 by the way), airports will have issues. And so will have ports, and other places in the communications infrastructure:

A drone with explosives and a detonator was found on the ground at Leipzig Airport at night. The drone was near a Ukrainian Antonov cargo plane, which caused the airport to temporarily suspend operations, - Bild

After the incident, one cargo plane was forced to re-land. Later, about 6 km from the airport, it collided with an unknown object and landed safely in Hanover, where minor damage was found.

Police do not rule out that the incident could have been an act of sabotage. Law enforcement officers are looking for the drone operator.

Will we see train stations? Roads? Ports? Yes, I am betting on this because it falls into the gray-zone war Russia prefers. It is just below the point where Europe can justify going fully kinetic. In some ways, I think we may also see these attacks as a way to goad Europe and prove that it is weak.

However, one miscalculation or way too many of these too often may launch Europe towards Article Five. And I insist that some of this reticence stems from Europe not being ready to go to war. The reality is that they never will be. And that is a fact about war. You can prepare for it. You can buy all the military hardware you think you need (it won’t be enough). You can train for it. But war is not something you are really ready for. And it is time for the West to understand this.

And no, I am not a fan of war. It is the worst thing that you can ever engage with, except for falling under the occupation of a government like Russia’s. And to be brutally honest, Eastern Europe knows this.

Read more

I have been saying this for a while. The Russian Federation made a strategic mistake that will cost it the future. Because at this point, Russia is eating the seed corn and making its demographic future near impossible. For the record, so did the United States when attacking Iran, and some of this description about Russia does apply to the United States as well. And I will point out why near the end of this piece. The mirror effects are what they are. So first, Abbas Galiamov, writing things in Russia for Important Stories, that indeed mirror what I have thought this or some time:

Putin’s Strategic Mistake: By attacking Ukraine, Russia tried to demonstrate its strength, but instead, it is showing the world its weakness, vindictiveness, and incredible cruelty.

Recently, at a meeting with military personnel, Putin, citing sources, gave another explanation for the refusal to agree to a ceasefire: “Once this special military operation is over, what will we do?” But contrary to the menacing statements of the Kremlin leader, the war is only destroying the myth that he possesses significant political influence, and that his army is invincible. This is written by political scientist Abbas GALIAMOV* in his new column for “MO.”

What Putin initially called the reasons for the invasion – hatred of Russia, the Russian language, and the desire to join NATO – were fictitious pretexts, the expert notes. According to sociological surveys, in 2005, only 16% of Ukrainians said they would vote in a referendum to join NATO, while 57% said they would vote against. Even after the Russian annexation of Crimea – between 2014 and 2021 – the number of supporters of joining the Western military alliance did not reach half, and it only increased after the 2022 invasion.

In Ukraine, it was fashionable to invite Russian political managers to work, and Galiyamov himself was invited to work at the Kyiv city hall, the expert recalls. His lack of knowledge of the Ukrainian language did not bother anyone.

“Even if we accept the Kremlin’s description of what is happening, the war does not seem inevitable,” Galiyamov points out. On the contrary, the decision to start it and the preparations for it appear to be the biggest strategic mistake. By refusing to show restraint, Putin is provoking the very processes that he allegedly wanted to prevent.

“If the Russian army had not launched the invasion, no one would have known that it was not the invincible force that it was believed to be,” writes the political scientist. “The world would have continued to believe that it was capable of crushing any opponent in a matter of days. The invasion destroyed this myth. The country, which could have appeared great precisely because it did not resort to force, decided to use that force – and in doing so, demonstrated its own weakness, vindictiveness, and incredible cruelty to the whole world.”

The English historian Edward Gibbon wrote: “The fear inspired by the military power of Rome gave a special weight and dignity to the moderation of the emperors.”Now, the Russian president has neither weight nor dignity, Galiyamov states.

It is the revelation of the Russian Army's state that is very telling. The second-largest army in the world could not deal with Ukraine and is stuck in a war that it cannot win. Increasingly, Russia’s economy is also getting degraded, and strategic assets are being destroyed.

So there is more, because there is always more:

“The creeping mobilization is already underway.” The excitement surrounding the new mass conscription of men into the war is pushing people to sign contracts right now, a military rights advocate said.

Concerns about a renewed mobilization are already affecting the pace of recruitment for the front lines. “MO” spoke with Ivan Chuviyaev, a representative of the anti-war project “Go Away,” about how to protect yourself and avoid panic. Here are his key points:

📍Various officials have been promising a new wave of mobilization for over 3 years, but so far, none of these predictions have come true. However, a “creeping mobilization” has been ongoing all this time. The state is trying to recruit people to the front lines through various means: sometimes debtors, sometimes alcoholics, sometimes students, sometimes conscripts, and sometimes those who are arrested or imprisoned. The focus shifts from one group to another, but the process itself continues uninterrupted.

📍Despite denials from the authorities, this atmosphere benefits them: it encourages people to sign contracts. Go now and receive millions in payments, or go by summons in the fall, but without any money. You shouldn’t believe this; don’t let the state manipulate you into signing a contract by using the fear of mobilization. You have one life – don’t give it to an old man from the Kremlin.

📍**To protect yourself as much as possible, avoid vulnerable situations:** don’t serve in the army as a conscript, don’t accumulate debts, and try not to have problems with the law. In all these situations, it will be much harder to protect your rights and avoid pressure. If you have any illnesses or circumstances that prevent you from serving, inform the military recruitment office in advance.

❗️There is no criminal liability for failing to appear after receiving a mobilization summons, but there are fines and a number of restrictions: a ban on obtaining loans, registering transactions, and driving vehicles. The ban on leaving the country after a summons is registered in the registry is automatically applied only to those who are subject to conscription. However, the law on mobilization stipulates a ban on leaving your place of residence without permission from the military recruitment office after it is announced. In 2022, the authorities did not actually enforce this rule, and people were able to leave Russia freely.

📛Since the creation of electronic registries, there have been more cases of people receiving a summons being turned back at the border; other restrictions have also begun to be introduced – we wrote about this here.

I will argue this has been ongoing for some time now. Remember what I wrote about Penza the other day, where people are forced to sign contracts with the army, after they are picked by the police. That is, at its heart, a silent mobilization. And I doubt this is only happening in the Penza region. Russia needs to reconstitute its army, and it increasingly appears that it is not getting enough volunteers. So bear that in mind.

In the meantime, the heads of regions keep living it up because, in a highly corrupt society where they are connected, they are not that affected by the war. And yes, this is a bad thing because this looks like these leaders do not care, even by appearances:

Heads of Russian regions continued to buy luxury cars even after the start of the war. Governors prefer Mercedes and Toyota, while domestic brands are only owned by two of them.

“MO” analyzed the declarations of 55 current governors, nominated by the “United Russia” party in the State Duma elections (they assist their party members and refuse mandates). The war and sanctions, it turned out, had little impact on their personal garages.

◾️Domestic automakers are not for officials. The declarations list 10 Russian-made cars, but seven of them belong to Gleb Nikitin, the governor of the Nizhny Novgorod region, where many of them are manufactured. A rare GAZ-21 from 1960 ended up in the garage of Rashid Temrezov, the head of the Karachay-Cherkess Republic. Two more cars are formally considered Russian. The RIDA-396930 belonging to Sergei Menyailo, the head of the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania, and the AG 412270 belonging to Alexander Shuvaev, the acting governor of the Belgorod region, are armored vehicles built on the basis of Lexus LX 570.

◾️Mercedes-Benz and Toyota were the most popular. The declarations list seven cars of each brand. BMW is in third place with five cars. The Toyota Land Cruiser leads with four cars (two Land Cruiser 200s and two Land Cruiser 300s). There are also two BMW X3s, two Toyota Hiluxes, and two Mercedes ML-Classes.

◾️The most expensive car collection belongs to Mikhail Vedernikov, the governor of Pskov. He owns a Mercedes-Maybach GLS 600 from 2025 and a Mercedes-Benz G-Class from 2021. At the same time, Vedernikov’s total income for 2025 was only 5 million rubles – about 425,000 rubles per month. According to Pskov media estimates, the Maybach is worth approximately 30 million rubles, and the “G-Class” is worth another 16.5 million rubles. He had to save his salary for 9 years and not spend it on anything.

◾️At least three expensive foreign cars were manufactured after the start of the war. The Mercedes-Maybach belonging to the governor of the Pskov region, Mikhail Vedernikov, was manufactured in 2025, the BMW X5 belonging to the governor of the Lipetsk region, Igor Artamonov, was manufactured in 2023, and the Toyota Land Cruiser 300 belonging to the head of the Komi Republic, Rostislav Goldtstein, was also manufactured in 2023. The BMW X5 belonging to the governor of the Kemerovo region (Kuzbass), Ilya Seredyuk, is dated 2022.

We have written about the foreign real estate owned by the governors and deputies running in the elections here.

Which brings me to the attempted murder in Moscow over the weekend. My question is this the third or fifth general targeted in Moscow over the last 12 months? At this point, I have lost count, yet this is not minor:

Official propaganda is ignoring the assassination attempt on the Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces, Chaiko. However, in the “Z” community, the act of sabotage is acknowledged, and there is outrage over the carelessness and lavish lifestyle of the military leaders.

The Russian embassy in Italy was the only official source to call the bombing in the “Balzi Rossi” restaurant in central Moscow a terrorist act carried out by Ukraine, and to report on the number of victims. A comment from the diplomatic mission points to “Kyiv terrorists” who “wanted to scare Italians working in Russia.” The death of 5 people is confirmed (officially, 3 deaths were reported), but nothing is said about the purpose of the assassination attempt.

◾The main Sunday evening programs on television – “Time” and “Vesti Nedeli” – ignored the explosion in the center of the capital. Solovyov only hinted at the event at the beginning of “Sunday Evening”: “Some things are surprising. It’s the fifth year of the war, maybe it’s time to realize that **it’s not time to celebrate, it’s not time to rejoice, it’s time to pay close attention to everything, starting with your own safety...**” But the propagandist did not develop this topic further.

◾The main target of the explosion was the Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces, Alexander Chaiko, according to Z-blogger Kirill Fedorov (and other Z-channels), as well as Ukrainian blogger Anatoly Shariy. It is believed that Chaiko was supposed to celebrate his 55th birthday and his appointment as Commander-in-Chief of the Aerospace Forces, which took place in May, at the restaurant. Chaiko’s daughter, Maria, and her husband, Daniil Peredriy, may have been injured in the explosion, according to “Vedomosti.” Shariy’s sources also say that Peredriy died in the hospital.

◾Z-bloggers criticize Chaiko for carelessness and a lavish celebration during the war:

💬 “Only in our country are they bombed every day, important facilities are burning, and this general is celebrating his birthday for 9 million rubles.”

💬 “This person simply doesn’t understand what time he lives in, he doesn’t understand anything about security, he doesn’t have a team that is responsible for security, he has no idea about the work of foreign intelligence, which knew all this. Yes, real generals don’t go to restaurants during wartime, there are no reasons for it yet.”

💬 “The war is on, and they are having a festival, a banquet, for God’s sake”

💬 “The commander should be dealing with the war and focusing on defeating the terrorists, not going to restaurants where the soup costs 6,000 rubles. He’s feeling like an ‘elite’ too soon. Anniversaries should be celebrated with family and trusted friends during wartime. And in elite restaurants after the victory.”

🤷 According to “Kommersant,” a criminal case has been opened under Article 205 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (”Terrorist Act”). However, the FSB and the Investigative Committee have still not reported anything about this case.

📩 Support our work! Subscribe to the channel and, if possible, make a donation in any convenient way. And thank you to everyone who does this!

Notice the criticism from Z-Bloggers about living the good life. It is the same as with the governors, and no, you cannot afford that life on an army salary. So, as usual, the general was getting money from side hustles, I bet. And lord knows he was going to have a birthday party to the nines, because he is a member of the Russian elite. He is a boyar, to use an old term from the empire, though not that favored because he is not a silovik. And we do not know if he is alive or not. Just that there was an attack.

As an aside, as the attack happened on the weekend, I wanted to get more information before going to print with it. It’s remarkable that we are getting more of these attacks in Moscow, which is absolutely insane, when you think about it. Not even generals are safe in the heart of the empire. And yes, there is more about all this insanity:

The number of civilian casualties on both sides of the front line has been increasing for the third month in a row, setting a new record. Experts are calling this stage of the conflict the “war of cities.”

July saw a new record number of civilian deaths and injuries on both sides of the conflict, according to calculations by “Mediazona” based on data from the Conflict Intelligence Team volunteer group. As in previous months, the majority of casualties and injuries (70%) occurred in areas controlled by Ukraine.

▪️The deadliest attacks and shelling incidents in July:

🔺On the night of July 2, Russia attacked Kyiv with missiles and drones, destroying an apartment building. 31 people were killed, and more than 100 were injured.

🔺Four days later, the attack was repeated— 19 people were killed, and 76 were injured.

🔺Seven people were killed and 24 were injured in a drone attack by Ukrainian forces on a Wildberries warehouse in Kotovsk (Tambov region).

🔺On July 11, the Russian Armed Forces bombed Sumy, killing 5 people and injuring more than 40.

🔺On July 20, a Ukrainian drone attacked a bus in the Shebekinsky district of the Belgorod region, killing 5 people and injuring 27.

▪️Previous records for the number of civilian deaths and injuries were set in June and May of this year. In those months, 451 and 377 civilians were killed, respectively, and 3293 and 2783 were injured.

▪️Military experts and Western media are calling the new stage of the conflict the “war of cities.” This term (in its modern meaning) emerged during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-88. At that time, both sides, unable to defeat the enemy on the battlefield, began massive shelling and bombing of populated areas. Tens of thousands of civilians were killed, but the borders of the states remained virtually unchanged after the war.

👉 In the “war of cities,” opponents hope to end the conflict not by defeating the enemy’s army (realizing that this is impossible), but by putting pressure on society and the economy,” explains Ruslan Leviev, founder of CIT. “Historical experience shows that the ‘war of cities’ is not capable of leading to any breakthroughs or victories. **This stage can last for decades.**”

Read more