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This story runs 1700+ words. The full story and everything in the archive is for paid subscribers only. Please support my work by subscribing. Read the Energy Markets Brief #13 below.

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Europe’s gas map has been redrawn. The new version deserves a close reading.

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Russia is rationing gasoline in Moscow. Farmers across the grain belt cannot get diesel before the harvest. Gas stations are posting purchase limits. Regional governors go on television to say there is no shortage and the people watching them stand in line for hours. This is the consequence of the war Moscow started in 2022 against Ukraine.

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This story runs 1200+ words. To continue reading, please subscribe. Paid subscribers get full access to two to three original articles a month.

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The world has burned through roughly 800 billion barrels of oil since 1990. According to the running-out theory, proven reserves should be dramatically lower today than they were then. In fact, they are higher. I spent a good part of my career in oil and gas journalism watching this number go up while the predictions of collapse kept coming. In this piece I explain why the running-out story was always wrong, and why the last barrel of oil on Earth will probably never be produced.

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The UAE is leaving OPEC on May 1 after nearly six decades of membership. The exit raises many questions, in particular, what happens to the discipline that holds the cartel together? The energy statistics is worth reading carefully. The country holds ambitious oil production plans by 2027.

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Europe has two large energy problems right now. The first is the price spike at the gas pump - up almost 13 percent in March alone, driven by a blocked shipping route in the Middle East. The second is older and less visible to regular consumers: a continent that still imports almost 60 percent of the energy it consumes and faces a $1.76 trillion bill to rewire its energy system between now and 2040. This money will be spent on electricity networks, hydrogen and carbon transport infrastructure. As all of us can see, Europe is spending heavily to keep its energy system running and apparently the bills are getting bigger and bigger. The disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz has pushed energy security issues back to the top of the agenda in Brussels, though the pressure on energy supply did not begin in March, but has been there for years.

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Every time you fill up your gas tank, you’re plugged into one of the most complicated markets on the planet. Oil is one of those topics everyone hears about every day, but the questions never stop coming. I put together the ones I get asked the most - in person, in the Substack chat, and by email. I’ve tried to answer them as clearly as I can, based on how I understand the energy market.

Here are the questions I get asked the most: Why don’t gas prices drop the moment oil prices drop, and why do gas prices rise like a rocket but fall like a feather. Also, why are world oil prices so unpredictable and what does OPEC actually do today? Why don’t oil companies just drill more when prices are high?

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Global oil demand continues to grow and is forecast to add 1.4 million barrels per day this year. In the United States, Americans are driving more miles while burning less gas. The country is projected to remain a net petroleum exporter in nearly all scenarios through 2050, with natural gas, solar and wind on track to supply 80 percent of U.S. electricity generation by mid-century in most scenarios. In Europe, prices for Euro-super 95 across the EU ranged from $5.99 a gallon in Malta to $10.55 in the Netherlands, with most Western European countries falling between $7 and $9 per gallon.

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U.S. oil production and LNG exports continue to expand. In Europe, policymakers are moving to reshape the energy system, pushing for greater investment in domestic supply and infrastructure as they try to cut reliance on imports and ease costs. Across the sector, new gas production has started in Angola, fresh discoveries have been made offshore Libya, and a major project is moving forward in Brazil. At the same time, renewables continue to gain ground in both the United States and Europe. Read the Energy Markets Brief #12 below.

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OPEC+ countries have agreed to begin easing part of its voluntary production cuts. In the United States, natural gas output is projected to reach new record highs in 2026 and 2027. In Europe, gasoline prices remain sharply divided. Economic pressures continue to shape energy-producing countries. In Ukraine, financial support from the IMF and EBRD is helping stabilize the economy and secure gas supplies. Read the Energy Markets Brief #11 below.

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OPEC expects global use to average almost 108 million barrels a day in 2027. The U.S. EIA expects supply to stay ahead of demand, pushing Brent down from $69 in 2025 to $58 in 2026 and $53 in 2027. In Europe, fuel prices remain far apart because of taxes and policy choices, while Czechia moves ahead with a €380 million grid upgrade under the REPowerEU plan.

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A new EU regulation published early February in the EU’s Official Journal lays out in detail how Europe will stop importing Russian natural gas and unwind the last remaining contracts with Moscow. The process begins next month and unfolds step by step strict controls and penalties designed to make avoidance costly and delay difficult. What the EU actually decided:

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