Even as the war between the U.S. and Iran drags on, and Israel faces off with Hezbollah in Lebanon, while cleaning up Hamas in Gaza, a new bigger war may be looming. One that, as I have previously noted on SUBSTACK, may have Biblical repercussions.

While it has been simmering for a long while, a serious conflict is now brewing between America’s Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) Israel, and NATO ally Turkey, primarily centered on post-Assad Syria. Syria sits between Israel and Turkey, and both consider it crucial to their respective security.

Turkey seeks a stable, centralized Syria, while Israel prefers a divided state with a weak military that cannot pose a threat.

Tensions spiked after Israeli airstrikes hit a Syrian military airport near Aleppo to block an alleged Turkish military deployment.

Both regional powerhouses are trading sharp accusations, raising fears of a direct military confrontation.

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As the New York Times recently noted:

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has in recent years referred to Israel as a “terror state,” compared its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to Hitler and suggested the possibility of Turkish military intervention inside Israel.

Mr. Netanyahu, for his part, has called Mr. Erdogan an “antisemitic dictator,” and members of the Israeli government have accused Turkey of supporting terrorism and acting like “an enemy state.”

Key Flashpoints

Syrian Power Struggle: Israel wants to limit the influence of Syria’s new administration and block any southern expansion of the Turkish military. Turkey—a primary ally to the new leadership in Damascus—accuses Israel of trying to destabilize Syria.

The Gaza Fallout: Longstanding diplomatic hostility over Israel’s military actions in Gaza and Turkey’s support for Hamas has completely frozen normal bilateral relations, including a near-total trade ban by Ankara.

Regional Competition: Broader geopolitical rivalries are playing out across the Eastern Mediterranean (with Israel aligning closely with Greece and Cyprus) and through competing regional alliances that may align with events forecast in the Bible.

The U.S. Department of State and special envoys have labeled the recent airstrikes an unnecessary escalation, working urgently to reinforce deconfliction mechanisms to prevent direct miscalculation between the two massive militaries.

But Israel sees a far bigger threat. Israel views Turkey’s expanding military footprint in Syria as a direct threat to its national security, even a precursor to a future invasion.

This is prompting forceful preventative military actions—such as the recent airstrikes on the defunct Abu al-Duhur air base in northern Syria, only 40 miles from the Turkish border —to block Ankara from entrenching troops, radar networks, and advanced weaponry near its borders.

Israel’s Strategic and Security Concerns

Military Entrenchment: Israel fears Turkey intends to station attack drones and advanced air defense systems at Syrian airfields, which would compromise Israel’s freedom of operation in Syrian airspace.

Regional Power Shift: Jerusalem perceives Turkey’s Islamist president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as attempting to project neo-Ottoman influence across the region, altering long-standing security arrangements.

Violation of the Status Quo: Israeli officials maintain that allowing Turkish forces to deploy at strategic bases breaches the security equilibrium established in northern and central Syria.

Freedom of Movement: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) rely on unobstructed operational airspace to counter hostile actors tied to Iran and other regional adversaries; a permanent Turkish military infrastructure complicates these operations.

Deterrence Strategy: By launching targeted kinetic warnings, Israel aims to establish clear red lines, signaling to both Ankara and Damascus that a southern expansion of Turkish military power will be met with direct force.

Meanwhile Turkey, partly in response to the Israeli airfield strike, has escalated confrontation with Israel on another front by requesting an international Interpol Red Notice for the arrest of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This follows domestic Turkish arrest warrants issued against Netanyahu and 36 other senior Israeli officials, including defense and security chiefs, for alleged genocide and crimes against humanity, aligning closely with international accountability efforts.

Turkey previously backed South Africa’s genocide case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and heavily supports international court proceedings against Israeli leadership.

Significantly, the Hamas-led attack in 2023 has since shaped Israel’s approach to the region and to Turkey, said Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

“We do not allow threats to grow; we tackle them in the beginning,” she said. “That’s the leading security doctrine, and that makes Israel more willing to take risks and less open to political settlements.”

While many downplay the risk of direct Turkey-Israel conflict, especially as both are U.S. allies, Syria is increasingly a direct flashpoint between nuclear-armed Israel and regional powerhouse Turkey that could turn to major war.

Paul Crespo, a well known conservative commentator, and President of the Center for American Defense Studies, brings decades of experience and insight to the issues that most threaten America – at home and abroad.

As a Marine Corps combat arms officer, he served aboard ships with a Marine Expeditionary Unit — Special Operations Capable (MEU-SOC) in the Pacific, and jumped from helicopters and airplanes.

He was also an intelligence officer and military attaché with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) at U.S. embassies in the Persian Gulf, Balkans and Latin America.

A graduate of Georgetown, London and Cambridge universities, he ran for congress, taught university political science courses, wrote editorials for a major newspaper and co-hosted his own radio show.

He has also been a private military and security contractor overseas in Africa and Latin America — and still dabbles in it, when called. But he now also brings all that knowledge and expertise to you.

In a recent PDB (Paul’s Defense Brief), the topline story described the growing tension between Israel and Turkey, with a potential fault line arising in Syria. Of note, that story reminds us that in 2025 Israel attacked targets in Syria that were being prepared for possible Turkish military bases, thus greatly lowering the threshold for a direct clash between the two regional powers.

Well, the heat has been increasing since and may boil over soon. Adding to the direct clashing between Israel and Turkey, we know see the rise of the new Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, also known as the Mecca Agreement, a defense pact between nuclear-armed Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.

This has only made the danger of war grow.

The growing possibility of a major conflict between NATO-member Turkey and nuclear-armed U.S. major non-NATO ally, Israel, has been on my radar years.

In part this is due to my familiarity with certain Biblical prophecies pointing to just that scenario. While, as a Catholic, I don’t take biblical prophecy too seriously (it’s more of a Protestant or evangelical preoccupation), I still must admit that the connections between certain prophecies and current Mideast conflict and developments are growing daily.

If nothing else, they provide a different religious lens or prism to view current events.

Until the rise of an Islamist leader, in the form of Erdogan, in formerly secular Turkey, and the rapid transformation of the old Mideast order with the Iraq war, collapse of Assad regime in Syria, and now the U.S.-Israel Iran war, the likelihood of a direct conflict between Turkey and Israel was relatively low.

More likely was a Russian-Israeli clash in Syria. Or an Iranian onslaught spearheaded by its proxies against the Jewish state. And in years past, Biblical prophecy scholars had seen both Russia and Iran as more likely leading any end times battle against Israel. Still, both appeared unlikely until the current open warfare with Iran, and Russian military intervention and bases in Syria.

But over the past few years, and more quickly recently, the idea of a Turkish Israeli war, perhaps accompanied by other regional nations, appears less and less outlandish. And more and more, whether you are a believer, or not, the pieces seem to be falling into place for such a Biblical conflict.

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FOR YOUR EYES ONLY — THE PDB — Not the President’s Daily Briefing, but almost as good — PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF.

The top defense news and intelligence from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO:

TOPLINE STORY

Donald Trump lashed out at reports U.S. is running short of key munitions in war with Iran, threatening long prison sentences for officials who leak information about military’s weapons stocks.

But few doubt there is a shortage. How U.S. squandered its strategic advantage. After five months of war with Iran, stockpiles of long-range weapons are so low, current and former U.S. defense officials say that they don’t believe U.S. has enough to combat threat in Asia.

Remaining supplies, depending on munition, are as low as 20% of what Pentagon would like. And stores of sophisticated interceptor missiles, such as Patriots and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missiles, are too depleted to give or sell the weapons to Ukraine or effectively defend against Iran’s launch of ballistic missiles.

U.S. used ‘virtually all’ long-range precision missiles during Iran war, raising concerns about military’s readiness for future conflicts.

So, the Pentagon is racing to buy 10X more missiles to ensure readiness for any China aggression. Army’s fiscal 2027 budget more than quadruples its PAC-3 MSE acquisition objective to 13,773 missiles.

EUROPE’S SOLAR ECLIPSE

On August 12, 2026, day will briefly turn dark as total solar eclipse crosses parts of Europe, marking continent’s first widely visible total solar eclipse since 1999.

HOMELAND SECURITY

Federal aviation officials are reviewing an air-traffic safety incident involving Marine One military helicopter carrying President Trump.

325 Narcan doses given, 43 lost children found: DC National Guard mission wraps first year. Nearly 9,700 troops from across nation have been shipped into Washington, D.C., for Trump’s “Make DC Safe and Beautiful” mission.

DEFENSE POLITICS

No more DEI hires. Under Hegseth, women’s share of top military promotions plunged this year. Percentage of high-ranking officer nominations going to women is currently at lowest level in over two decades.

North Carolina National Guard settled federal lawsuit with former guardsman who alleged service violated his First Amendment rights by blocking him on Facebook for criticizing its leadership.

New defense firms, venture capital and state industrial policy. When Anduril announced $910 million drone production facility in Ohio, main message came from Ohio’s governor. Members of Congress usually take substantial credit for defense industrial jobs, but Arsenal-1 was built near Columbus partially because of state subsidies.

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As the on-again, off-again U.S. war against Iran continues, President Trump is now threatening to strike Iran’s nearly impregnable granite Pickaxe Mountain (known in Iran as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La). The deeply buried site in the Zagros mountains, under construction since 2020, is reportedly being turned into the latest deep storage for Iran’s uranium centrifuges used to make weapons grade nuclear material.

This is where thousands of centrifuges were moved to after our 2025 strikes on Natanz. At least this is what Israeli intelligence suggests. It may also be where Iran moved its already highly enriched uranium.

Intelligence suggests the move is a survival strategy to protect surviving equipment rather than a fully active enrichment plant, though it could support future advanced centrifuge assembly.

All this justifies a major attack.

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Trump has warned that Pickaxe Mountain may be a possible target for “a nice, big fat shot right in the front door,” adding: "We're going to take out Pickaxe Mountain,” if Tehran does not rapidly agree to a new nuclear deal. Tehran has warned that an attack on Pickaxe would cross a red line for Iran, and could trigger Iranian attacks on US and allied nuclear sites.

Unfortunately, the mountain’s geology makes it one of the most difficult targets in the world.

Per The Times of Israel:

Analysts place its main halls at least 100 meters beneath granite. Construction there began in late 2020 after the sabotage of the Natanz workshop [Iran’s advanced centrifuge assembly facilities]. Four tunnel mouths—the only known means of access—sit in two pairs, east and west. The International Atomic Energy Agency has never entered the [Pickaxe] complex. However, Israeli assessments indicate that Iran moved centrifuges there after the June 2025 strikes. Those facts, not the force of Washington’s rhetoric, define the mission.

NOTE: The distance from Pickaxe to Natanz in the graphic above is incorrect. Correct distance is 2km, or 1.2 miles.

After the U.S. struck Iran’s deeply buried (but in much softer sedimentary geology) Fordow underground facility in June 2025 with 30,000lb GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance penetrators (MOPs), defense planners concluded the operation had tested the absolute limits of conventional destruction.

The U.S. launched upwards of 14 MOPs against buried Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025. Dropping the bombs in sequence or ‘daisy chain,’ multiplies their ability to penetrate.

Partly in response to these buried and fortified underground nuclear sites, and the far more fortified one at Pickaxe, the U.S. military is now developing the GBU-76B Next-Generation Penetrator (NGP) to succeed the MOP.

While intended to be more powerful, with far deeper penetration ability, especially against granite, the NGP, at 22,000lbs or less, will also be lighter and able to be deployed by a wider variety of aircraft, including the F-35 fighter, rather than just heavy B-2 Spirit or B-21 Raider stealth bombers.

It will also have a navigation system capable of operating in GPS-denied environments, a growing concern as the U.S. military prepares for future fights.

Production is also at least two years away.

However, even this yet-to-be-produced new weapon may not be enough to breach and destroy the facilities at Pickaxe Mountain which rises 5,250 feet above sea level. The U.S. and Israel also had years to map out and build a complete targeting profile for Fordow, but very little time to do that for Pickaxe.

Firing blindly at deep-buried barriers of unknown thickness with limited number of strategic assets is also not really a great option.

This leaves Trump with only a few credible options to take out this critical Iranian nuclear target.

One option is attacking the site with a penetrating low-yield tactical nuclear warhead. But that would be a big step. A low-yield nuke (under 20 kilotons) probably wouldn’t penetrate the hundred or more meters of granite protecting the underground facility, but it would breach the long-held taboo on first use of nuclear weapons, kill a lot of civilians, and dismantle, as one analyst says, the “exact framework used to justify the operation, providing every rogue state a permanent precedent.”

It would also likely irradiate surrounding areas and keep anyone from ever verifying what we actually hit and preclude conducting any real battle damage assessment (BDA). Using a more powerful nuke (100-300 kilotons) would simply magnify all those issues.

As Jose Lev Alvarez Gomez explains:

A surface or sub-surface detonation leaves the facility permanently inaccessible, sealed by lethal radiological contamination. Battle damage assessment becomes impossible; ground forces could neither verify the destruction of Iran’s centrifuges nor account for the 440.9 kilograms of 60-percent enriched uranium Tehran held before the 2025 war. Radioactive rubble and poisoned aquifers would permanently blind international monitors. In short, lasting strategic victory requires exactly what a nuclear strike prevents: eyes and boots inside the mountain.

While detonating a nuke is still an option, it’s highly unlikely. Two other options are better choices. One of them, that Trump has repeatedly mentioned, involves boots on the ground.

Since Pickaxe Mountain is connected to Natanz via 1.2 miles of vulnerable logistical and communication lines -- shared power lines, fiber-optic routes, and secondary roads bind the two complexes together – Alvarez Gomez argues that American and Israeli planners must treat this mountain and the Natanz threat as a single nervous system and sever those arteries first.

Then, he notes:

…concentrated penetrator attacks must batter all four tunnel mouths. Repeated impacts should create rubble plugs that block movement; any residual openings would then provide entry routes for short-duration joint special-operations teams under continuous close air support.

Their mission should be clear: destroy the remaining centrifuges with conventional high explosives, collapse the critical sections, and withdraw… Pickaxe must become a sealed tomb, not a recoverable redoubt.

However, this would be a lot harder than it sounds. Ensuring that openings remain after any kinetic penetrator attack would be tough. Any ground force deployed on the ground deep in Iran would be difficult to protect even with air superiority. Recall our massive aircrew rescue missions in Iran not long ago. And the troops may come up empty, suffer major casualties, or fail.

Still, a version of this remains an option.

There is a third compromise option, cheaper than any definitive solution, but effective, nonetheless. As Celio Ramirez notes separately in The Times of Israel, “It abandons the ambition to see inside and settles for something more cunning.”

Ramirez continues:

It does not aim to destroy the mountain; it aims to make the mountain talk. Collapse the entrances. The ventilation shaft and overhead power lines are exposed. Identifiable and reachable aerial targets, they are precisely the vulnerabilities heavy earth-penetrating ordnance exploits. Then observe what the regime does.

[Does the regime try desperately to regain access over time or does it it make superficial efforts meant to deceive us into thinking it was important to them?]

This is not the ideal outcome. This will tell us how important the site is. While it neither destroys the deep chambers nor confirms what the mountain holds, it buys time and, more importantly, information. It also allows us the ability to strike at any regime attempts to reopen the site.

It also allows us to use other options later, if truly needed. So, basically, we seal it, wait and watch. And re-strike, if needed. At the moment this may be the best option available. Trump’s team should strongly consider it.

Paul Crespo, a well known conservative commentator, and President of the Center for American Defense Studies, brings decades of experience and insight to the issues that most threaten America – at home and abroad.

As a Marine Corps combat arms officer, he served aboard ships with a Marine Expeditionary Unit — Special Operations Capable (MEU-SOC) in the Pacific, and jumped from helicopters and airplanes.

He was also an intelligence officer and military attaché with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) at U.S. embassies in the Persian Gulf, Balkans and Latin America.

A graduate of Georgetown, London and Cambridge universities, he ran for congress, taught university political science courses, wrote editorials for a major newspaper and co-hosted his own radio show.

He has also been a private military and security contractor overseas in Africa and Latin America — and still dabbles in it, when called. But he now also brings all that knowledge and expertise to you.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY — THE PDB — Not the President’s Daily Briefing, but almost as good — PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF.

The top defense news and intelligence from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO:

TOPLINE STORY

Spain deploys military to Ceuta as Spain and Morocco reinforce border after 60,000, mostly male Muslim Arab, migrants ‘invaded’ the Spanish north African city-enclave by sea and land in a single day.

Ceuta, which shares a 5-mile land border with Morocco, sits on Mediterranean coast across Strait of Gibraltar from mainland Spain. A Spanish territory since 1580, it has a population of about 80,000.

Spain has deployed its military to restore order at its border with Morocco in Ceuta after local authorities asked the central government in Madrid for reinforcements. Spain’s government said it would send the Armed Forces to help the Civil Guard “to maintain security in city of Ceuta.”

Shocking videos show hordes of people, mainly young Moroccan men, storming around the breakwaters at Tarajal beach onto local roads.

https://www.facebook.com/reel/2000949770527108

“The situation is absolute chaos,” the head of the association that represents Spain’s Civil Guard officers in Ceuta, who police the border, told AP. “It’s not possible to give precise numbers, but there are thousands of migrants crossing,” he said, adding that the border had “totally collapsed.”

Both countries agreed to work together “for the return, as soon as possible, of all the people who entered Ceuta illegally.” But it’s yet to be seen if and how they will accomplish this.

NATIONAL SECURITY

Iran war depleted roughly two-thirds of U.S. Patriot missile interceptor stockpiles, creating readiness challenges if another major conflict erupts before stockpiles are rebuilt, say experts.

Arms race for cheaper anti-ballistic weapons is underway.

Winning the peace: The Democratic dilemma of limited war. Military and political outcomes have become increasingly disconnected. As Carl von Clausewitz observed, war is fought to achieve political objectives, with military force only one instrument among many in statecraft.

We know how to protect our troops from telecom attacks. We’re just not doing it. Iran is targeting U.S. military personnel via their smartphones. War in Ukraine has supplied numerous stories of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers killed when their cell phones revealed their location.

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Seeing the ship that I spent nearly six months aboard, as part of the 11^th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), getting sunk in a coordinated attack was bittersweet. The USS Peleliu, LHA-5, was the lead ship of the Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) I was a part of way back in 1988 patrolling the Western Pacific.

I served as the artillery forward observer and aerial observer for the MEU’s helicopter assault infantry company conducting operations, exercises and training in places such as the Philippines, Okinawa, South Korea and even remote WWII airfields on islands like Tinian. We also paid visits to Hong Kong and Guam.

LHAs are the largest of all amphibious warfare ships, resembling a small aircraft carrier. Today’s versions carry helicopters, MV-22 Osprey tiltrotor aircraft and vertical takeoff F-35B stealth fighters.

On July 17, the impressive ship was hit by anti-ship missiles from submarines and aircraft, missiles from attack helicopters, and even by an advanced experimental seaborne explosive drone boat that blew a huge hole in its hull.

Eventually all these hits sank the huge 40,000-ton amphibious assault flattop beneath the waves and sent it to the sea floor 15,000 feet below.

But before we assume it was attacked by Iran, China, or other U.S. enemies, I need to note the ship was decommissioned in 2015 (after 35 years of service) and was sunk by U.S. and allied navies in a week-long sinking exercise (SINKEX) live fire shoot during RIMPAC 2026 in the Pacific. It was still a bit sad to watch.

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U.S. pauses Iran attacks for second night. Top military officials advised Trump that say campaign has reached limit of effectiveness and warn of dwindling stocks of munitions.

U.S. Ambassador to UN Mike Waltz says pause in strikes against Iran is ‘giving diplomacy some space,’ adding that additional military assets are still being moved into region.

U.S. and Iran stuck in cycle of military escalation. Trump threatening to intensify bombing of Iran while Tehran’s militia allies widen war. This, as the two warring parties are running up against limits of what they can achieve through military force.

As hope fades in Berlin that conflict in Iran will end anytime soon, German government is pulling back two warships from Gulf of Aden sent there weeks ago to support eventual post-war Strait of Hormuz security mission.

Iran escalation wears at Gulf alliance. As U.S. continues daily strikes on Iran, Arab states battered by Tehran’s retaliatory attacks are trying to unite to chart a path forward.

As U.S. war with Iran approaches five-month mark, new survey indicates that more than 3/4 of respondents believe Trump underestimated the conflict.

NATIONAL SECURITY

Time to wargame the draft. Fearing its new plans for a military draft pool won’t work, Selective Service System wants to create computer simulation to test scenarios for its national mobilization.

Before creating a Cyber Force, fix cyber governance. Chorus calling for a Cyber Force continues to grow but debate has its priorities backward.

Army helicopters, Navy drones sink two retired warships at RIMPAC. This month, U.S. forces and partner militaries got to sink not one but two decommissioned Navy ships.

HOMELAND SECURITY

National Guard awards $292 million for 2,000 ‘apartment-style’ units for troops assigned to Joint Task Force-District of Columbia deployments.

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DEFENSE POLITICS

Judge orders Hegseth to explain U.S. military’s new testosterone policy.

Pentagon nominates black Lt. Gen. Admiral to command U.S. Army Europe and Africa.

After Trump’s order, West Point curbed faculty speech. One professor said no. He argues that Pentagon’s attempt to limit what teachers can say and write makes military more susceptible to bad decisions.

Transportation Department wants veterans to become truck drivers. Federal government hoping that veterans who drove heavy military vehicles will step in to fill commercial trucking jobs around country.

IRAN WAR CASUALTIES

4 service members listed in Pentagon casualties database as having died during Iran war are now listed as “Overseas Operations Casualties.”

Pentagon reports more than 600 Iran war casualties (killed and injured) in quiet database update. Figures are source of dispute as War Department days ago reduced record of troops killed and wounded.

CHINA THREAT

China launched patrol by its naval and air forces in South China Sea, accusing Philippines of holding patrols with foreign countries in the disputed waterway.

RUSSIA THREAT/UKRAINE WAR

Russian ballistic missiles struck Ukrainian capital of Kyiv setting off fires, along with attacks on other parts of country.

Evidence of Ukraine using Dutch Ruta Block 1 low-cost cruise missile found following an operational strike. Weapon is another addition to an increasingly diverse arsenal that can hold targets even deep inside Russia at risk.

From steppe to sea, Ukrainian drone unit hunts Russian ships on Black Sea — part of widening Ukrainian campaign to isolate Crimea and weaken Moscow’s war effort.

EUROPEAN DEFENSE

France and Spain are battling major wildfires that have forced evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people, as prolonged drought and successive heatwaves fuel some of worst fires in decades.

Romania summons Russia’s ambassador after downing third drone since Friday. F-16 fighter intercepted drone in Romanian airspace over Black Sea.

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Indonesia orders Leonardo M-346F Block 20 light fighters, eyes naval helicopters.

Number ‌of confirmed Ebola cases in ⁠the Democratic Republic of Congo has passed 3,000 in what authorities say is the fastest-growing outbreak on record.

US MILITARY

“Effective immediately,” Navy redesignates Information Professionals as ‘Communications Systems Warfare Officers.’ – “Information Warfare Officers” would be better.

Active-Duty Airmen only have few days left to submit official waist-to-height ratio into Air Force’s new online application. But service clarified that this first body composition measurement won’t be scored as part of new Physical Fitness Readiness Assessment, PFRA.

As submersible drone threat grows, Coast Guard seeking technology to hunt and kill uncrewed underwater vehicles.

As drones take over, ejection-seat makers prepare for a pilotless battlefield. Advancements in robotic and autonomous aircraft have Martin-Baker and fellow ejection-seat makers looking for ways to keep themselves in business.

END of PDB

Paul Crespo, a well known conservative commentator, and President of the Center for American Defense Studies, brings decades of experience and insight to the issues that most threaten America – at home and abroad.

As a Marine Corps combat arms officer, he served aboard ships with a Marine Expeditionary Unit — Special Operations Capable (MEU-SOC) in the Pacific, and jumped from helicopters and airplanes.

He was also an intelligence officer and military attaché with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) at U.S. embassies in the Persian Gulf, Balkans and Latin America.

A graduate of Georgetown, London and Cambridge universities, he ran for congress, taught university political science courses, wrote editorials for a major newspaper and co-hosted his own radio show.

He has also been a private military and security contractor overseas in Africa and Latin America — and still dabbles in it, when called. But he now also brings all that knowledge and expertise to you.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY — THE PDB — Not the President’s Daily Briefing, but almost as good — PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF.

The top defense news and intelligence from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO:

TOPLINE STORY

‘Red Kraken’ exercise in July. House Homeland Security Committee lawmakers and staff get taste of AI-enabled cyberattacks in China-Taiwan tabletop war game that tested how U.S. officials might respond to AI-backed cyberattacks targeting transportation and logistics networks needed to deploy U.S. forces.

Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) hosted the event.

Scenario begins with China launching a massive military exercise around Taiwan in summer of 2027, leaving U.S. officials unsure whether Beijing was being coercive, imposing de facto blockade or preparing for full invasion of island, per readout provided to reporters just before simulation began. Beijing avoids using term “blockade” but its moves effectively quarantine Taiwan, the summary says.

Lawmakers are then told that U.S. intelligence suspects Chinese hackers had begun targeting ports, freight rail systems, airports and other transportation networks that could be used to move U.S. forces and supplies. Some of the attacks cause immediate disruptions, while others appear designed to preserve access that could be leveraged later.

Participants have to decide which networks to defend first, how closely to coordinate with private sector critical infrastructure operators and whether moving U.S. forces would deter China or further escalate the crisis.

READ MORE HERE at CSIS

PRESIDENT TRUMP

Trump’s various businesses earned him an unprecedented $2.24 billion in 2025 – an increase of nearly 280% over revenue from in 2017, primarily due to cryptocurrency dealings.

NATIONAL SECURITY

Trump administration announces major civil nuclear deal to export nuclear materials to Saudi Arabia for peaceful nuclear power. He later stated the final deal was contingent on Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel.

U.S. has most lethal military on Earth. But even the most advanced weapons system is only as strong as the supply chains behind it.

New executive order issued by President Trump authorizes Pentagon to use AI to map vulnerabilities in department’s supply chains.

U.S. needs off-ramp between doing nothing and shutting down AI. For 18 days in June, two of America’s most capable AI models went dark worldwide, not for technical or business reasons, but because U.S. government ordered it.

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HOMELAND SECURITY

Seriously? Attorneys for vacationing soldier shot by stray round when he was caught in “hail of bullets” in front of White House have filed a $25 million claim against Secret Service who exchanged fire with an armed assailant.

DEFENSE POLITICS

House of Representatives for second time passed war powers resolution directing President Trump to withdraw U.S. military from conflict with Iran. This, amid renewed fighting that has driven oil prices to their highest levels in weeks and claimed 4 more U.S. lives.

House of Representatives narrowly passed its version of sweeping defense policy bill, approving historic $1.15 trillion budget for Pentagon amid uncertainty on future of Iran war.

Trump declared he would propose a $1.5 trillion defense budget for fiscal 2027—a record-breaking figure akin to Reagan buildup of 1980s, but this time to counter China not the USSR. But now, nearly 8 months later, chances such a big budget might pass are fading.

Coast Guard should get a civilian leader like other military branches, GOP senators say. Coast Guard Leadership Modernization Act would establish secretary of the Coast Guard.

BRRRRT Act would keep more Warthogs flying. It would force Air Force to keep at least 126 A-10 Thunderbolt II CAS jets, far more than service had planned, and to reverse year’s work dismantling aircraft’s maintenance depot, pilot training and weapons course.

US POWER OVERSEAS

Air Force has stood up first rapidly deployable units designed to protect air bases in Pacific or other potential hotspots from aerial attack.

IRAN WAR

Trump says he is prepared to continue, or escalate, U.S. military strikes while also signaling he is open to more negotiations. But, despite having lost scores of ships, missiles, and military production facilities, Iran’s actions still affect U.S. actions. This is allowing regime to control pace of the conflict. How is this possible?

Trump’s latest threat to bomb Iranian infrastructure is unlikely to rattle Tehran — and instead underscores limits of what air war alone can accomplish.

Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen struck 2 Saudi oil tankers in Red Sea, threatening second major chokepoint for oil supplies along with Iran’s near-closure of Strait of Hormuz.

Unfazed by Iran’s threats, Bulgaria approved draft decision enabling U.S. tanker aircraft to support military operations against Iran from an air base on Bulgarian territory.

Bahrain, home of U.S. 5^th Fleet HQ, activated its sirens Friday, warning residents to shelter from detected fire hours after U.S. military said it had wrapped up its 13th night of strikes against Iran.

UK ‘ready to defend itself’ after Iranian threat over U.S. bases. IRGC claims base in south-west England was used by U.S. to launch bombing missions, making it ‘legitimate target.’

Video footage and satellite images reveal new details about Iranian strikes on U.S. targets in Gulf.

CHINA THREAT

Total war on Taipei: China explores elevating cognitive effects into its vision of warfare. China’s military researchers published concept describing how to rapidly capture and subdue city of Taipei. Its objective is to break the Taiwan people’s will to fight.

Australia successfully has tested a “Frankenstein” hybrid medium-range air defense system, harnessing existing and new capabilities in way nobody has tried before.

RUSSIA THREAT/UKRAINE WAR

EU naval mission will now intercept and board Russian shadow tankers in Indian Ocean suspected of operating under false flags.

Ukrainian troops join in outcry, say defense chief’s firing portends return to ‘meat grinder.’

Ukrainian F-16 shot down a Russian Su-57 Felon semi-stealth fighter for first time since U.S.-designed planes arrived on battlefield in 2024.

EUROPEAN DEFENSE

Backed by France, Macron sees Germany as nuclear deterrence ‘vanguard’ in Europe. French nuclear-capable bombers visiting German airfield this month and joint exercises on the calendar.

Greece to buy multi-layer air defense system worth up to $4 billion from Israel.

UK’s BAE enters uncrewed fighter aircraft competition with ‘Brontanax.’

SPACE THREATS

Human moon landings could be in peril from space junk. A massive, stray piece of a SpaceX rocket is on course to smash into moon, just one example of the dangers.

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Europe prepares for first total solar eclipse in 27 years on August 12, 2026.

US MILITARY

Pentagon needs doctrine and industry recommendations for age of autonomous warfare. U.S. must rethink everything to remain competitive.

Pentagon replacing long-used cognitive assessment with new test to better detect cognitive changes and support brain health monitoring for troops.

Naval Support Activity Monterey, California, is now home to Pentagon’s most powerful supercomputer.

Navy moving ahead on much-needed West Coast dock for aircraft carriers at Puget Sound Naval Shipyard.

END of PDB

Paul Crespo, a well known conservative commentator, and President of the Center for American Defense Studies, brings decades of experience and insight to the issues that most threaten America – at home and abroad.

As a Marine Corps combat arms officer, he served aboard ships with a Marine Expeditionary Unit — Special Operations Capable (MEU-SOC) in the Pacific, and jumped from helicopters and airplanes.

He was also an intelligence officer and military attaché with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) at U.S. embassies in the Persian Gulf, Balkans and Latin America.

A graduate of Georgetown, London and Cambridge universities, he ran for congress, taught university political science courses, wrote editorials for a major newspaper and co-hosted his own radio show.

He has also been a private military and security contractor overseas in Africa and Latin America — and still dabbles in it, when called. But he now also brings all that knowledge and expertise to you.

President Trump’s new Qatari-gifted interim, or bridge, Air Force One has been in the news recently due to questions about its security and defensive capabilities. However, on a more positive but related note, Trump is now building a new, first-ever, helipad at the White House for the new, fully mission-capable Marine One helicopter, and building it fast.

And yes, as I will explain below, the president needs it.

Trump has previously said there is “no harder zoning thing to get” than a helipad, but has added that still, “I always was lucky, I always got helipads. Other people don’t. Very hard to get. The hardest thing to get is a helipad, OK?”

In this case, it was a lot easier as the White House has said that “operational upgrades to the White House grounds, such as the helipad installation, do not require commission reviews.”

Currently under construction on the White House South Lawn, what is expected to be a stunning 100-foot round black granite helipad, etched with the presidential seal, is needed to accommodate the impressive Sikorsky-built VH-92A Patriot helicopter, which will serve as the new Marine One.

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More recently Trump made a dramatic entrance to the FIFA World Cup Final in New Jersey aboard the new Marine One after a flyover of the MetLife Stadium.

Work on the helipad started last month, shortly after a makeshift stadium built to host an Ultimate Fighting Championship fight significantly damaged the South Lawn.

Dana White, the UFC president, had set aside $700,000 to repair the lawn after the June 14 event. But Trump instead decided to take advantage of the existing damage to the lawn to forge ahead immediately with the helipad he had long wanted.

He is also apparently in a rush to complete the pad before the upcoming state visit by China’s Xi Jinping in September. Trump always has deadlines for key events.

The helipad marks a major change to the traditional image of presidents departing from the White House lawn, where prior Marine One variants have historically landed directly on the grass, using small portable aluminum pads for the wheels.

However, the new birds’ engines and downward facing exhausts has limited their use over concerns about damaging and burning the lawn.

The president and his entourage will now be able to walk on a paved walkway directly to the pad from the White House without stepping on wet or muddy grass. This is an issue Trump also highlighted with regard to the -- now paved -- grassy area of the Rose Garden.

The VH-92A Patriot made its first presidential flight in 2024, carrying Joe Biden. Although the aircraft has entered service with the Marine Corps’ HMX-1 presidential lift helicopter squadron, older helicopters in its fleet have continued to be used for most White House operations because of those South Lawn concerns.

While some critics are already bashing the new helipad as another Trump vanity project or folly, it really is the only way to make good use of the very expensive and very capable new Marine One helicopter. It will also allow the Marines to finally retire the 45-year-old helicopters still being used.

For those TDS-infected Democrat critics pouncing on the cost to the taxpayer, Trump announced that the $5-6 million landing pad would be funded by Lockheed, which now owns Sikorsky Aircraft, in part because the company reportedly didn’t properly disclose or explain the potential engine exhaust problem to the Marines before initial testing in 2018 uncovered the problem.

A Lockheed Martin spokeswoman said the company has already donated the funds for the helipad to the National Park Service.

The Marine One fleet is currently made up of three Sikorsky helicopter types: the older VH-3D Sea King, introduced in the late 1970s; the VH-60N White Hawk, a variant of the ubiquitous Blackhawk, introduced in the late 1980s; and the newer VH-92A Patriot.

The VH-92A was developed to replace the ageing VH-3D and VH-60N aircraft with a more modern platform offering greater capacity, improved communications, and increased mission capability.

The new Marine One’s interior features a highly secure, much more modern and elegant soundproofed cabin that seats up to 14 passengers, complete with plush leather seating, and a private lavatory. It also has military-grade encrypted communication, ballistic armor, anti-missile defense systems and Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) shielding.

It is also the first presidential first helicopter equipped with SpaceX Starshield satellite communications.

To ensure maximum security, Marine One always flies in a formation of up to five identical helicopters, with the President on board only one of them, with the others serving as decoys. And now it will be able to land regularly on its own pad on the South Lawn of the White House, wet, muddy, or dry.

Paul Crespo, a well known conservative commentator, and President of the Center for American Defense Studies, brings decades of experience and insight to the issues that most threaten America – at home and abroad.

As a Marine Corps combat arms officer, he served aboard ships with a Marine Expeditionary Unit — Special Operations Capable (MEU-SOC) in the Pacific, and jumped from helicopters and airplanes.

He was also an intelligence officer and military attaché with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) at U.S. embassies in the Persian Gulf, Balkans and Latin America.

A graduate of Georgetown, London and Cambridge universities, he ran for congress, taught university political science courses, wrote editorials for a major newspaper and co-hosted his own radio show.

He has also been a private military and security contractor overseas in Africa and Latin America — and still dabbles in it, when called. But he now also brings all that knowledge and expertise to you.

TOPLINE STORY

Air Force began piloted flights and autonomy tests for modified F-16s that allows AI to fly the aircraft.

Next step toward integrating semiautonomous aircraft into Air Force is building trust with human operators through simulations and training exercises.

Thunderstruck: Anduril unveils autonomous attack rotorcraft. U.S. military will soon field drone wingman that expands well beyond fixed wing platforms of Combat Collaborative Aircraft program.

Lockheed Martin’s Morfius X-Rotor made to fry 50 enemy drones in one flight.

‘Let the AI do it’: Former Air Force secretary pits machine against human operators. As Air Force moves to incorporate AI into operations, the force needs to train human operators effectively to use the tools. But AI might make a better fighter than the human at times.

NATIONAL SECURITY

Winning battles, losing strategy: Why military superiority no longer guarantees victory. U.S. battlefield dominance remains unmatched, but Iraq, Afghanistan and now Iran shows that tactical success increasingly fails when military power is not matched by coherent political strategy and will.

Next 9/11 unlikely to be another similar terrorist attack nor cyber-attack nor even another pandemic. Next global shock may be use of nuclear weapons assisted by more casual attitudes of less responsible world leaders and lack of popular understanding and fear.

HOMELAND SECURITY

Former U.S. soldier toting anti-ICE sign set off incendiary fireworks on fire fueled by liquid accelerant and shot pellet gun outside Manhattan federal office building, injuring three people before being subdued.

Navy instructs key commands to remove leadership portraits and biographies from public-facing websites for security.

DC National Guard got first maritime security vessel, giving the unit waterborne capability to support security at major events and overall homeland defense in nation’s capital.

Free subscribers get valuable content, but paid subscribers get full access.

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Soon after my piece on the missing security features on President Trump’s new aircraft serving as the interim ‘Air Force One’ — ones that made the jet not fully mission capable — Trump announced that the Qatari-gifted luxury jet-turned presidential transport is going back to the shop to get ‘maxed out.’

“The new Air Force One is perfectly safe for the President’s travels but will receive additional upgrades and enhancements in the fall which will take approximately one month to complete,” White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. “During that time, the President will fly on the old Air Force One.”

When asked about the newly renovated plane’s missile-defense capabilities, amid reports that the new jet is not as secure as the old one, Trump told reporters after the World Cup final match, “It has a lot of capability, but as I understand it, in about a month or so, they’re going to send it to have it be maxed out.”

Trump didn’t specify what “maxed out” meant but seemed to acknowledge for the first time that the new plane, a Boeing 747-800, lacks at least some of the defensive countermeasures of the previous jet that I described earlier.

This, despite his denying that the change from the new aircraft back to the old aircraft on his flight back from Turkey was not security related. The president, downplaying the idea that security concerns were to blame, said at the time that he was sending the jet ahead of him to allow U.S. service members stationed in England to get a chance to tour it.

Free subscribers get valuable content, but paid subscribers get full access.

The Air Force also previously told The Washington Post that it “coordinated closely with appropriate government entities to ensure all functional mission requirements were strictly met for transporting the President.”

But as I noted, and CBS News reported, the swap was actually at the request of the Secret Service, partly because the new plane wasn’t yet equipped with all the security features and systems of the original.

I have long argued that there had not been enough time to integrate the full range of security and defensive measures when refurbishing a jet not built for presidential use “from the ground up.” Those missing features likely include anti-missile lasers, as well as flare and chaff dispensers to confuse and divert heat seeking and radar-guided missiles.

They could also include some electronic warfare capabilities and shielding against Electro Magnetic Pulse (EMP) radiation.

While perhaps not built totally from the ground up as a presidential aircraft, the two original VC-25A Air Force Ones (Boeing 747-200Bs) were heavily modified with security, defense, and command-and-control systems during their initial assembly.

These comprehensive overhauls were conducted at the specialized Boeing facility in San Antonio, Texas (where the fleet's major maintenance and avionics integration have historically taken place) and the modification center in Wichita, Kansas.

This, to me, makes it far more of an original build, than having L3 Harris retroactively upgrade a fully completed and furnished Boeing civil aircraft built and flown to a foreign sovereign buyer's standards and requirements.

In addition to being critical of Trump accepting a $400 million gift luxury jet from the Qatari royal family, I originally speculated that the plane would likely be limited to domestic travel in the U.S. or other low threat regions. Trump seemed to have jumped the gun asking to use the new jet on an overseas trip that included a stop in Turkey next to Iran. More so when open warfare restarted.

While Trump denied then that security concerns prompted the change, he still suggested that Iran could have tried to attack the plane. Reporters flying with the president were asked to close their window blinds as they departed Ankara.

Trump reportedly privately seethed over news about the plane’s security deficiencies, and his team moved aggressively to investigate who leaked information to reporters. But now he seems to at least be admitting that the reporting was correct.

Paul Crespo, a well known conservative commentator, and President of the Center for American Defense Studies, brings decades of experience and insight to the issues that most threaten America – at home and abroad.

As a Marine Corps combat arms officer, he served aboard ships with a Marine Expeditionary Unit — Special Operations Capable (MEU-SOC) in the Pacific, and jumped from helicopters and airplanes.

He was also an intelligence officer and military attaché with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) at U.S. embassies in the Persian Gulf, Balkans and Latin America.

A graduate of Georgetown, London and Cambridge universities, he ran for congress, taught university political science courses, wrote editorials for a major newspaper and co-hosted his own radio show.

He has also been a private military and security contractor overseas in Africa and Latin America — and still dabbles in it, when called. But he now also brings all that knowledge and expertise to you.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY — THE PDB — Not the President’s Daily Briefing, but almost as good — PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF.

The top defense news and intelligence from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO:

TOPLINE STORY

Trump expected to urge top defense executives to accelerate weapons production and expand manufacturing capacity as wars in Ukraine and Middle East strain U.S. stockpiles and expose bottlenecks in nation’s industrial base.

Pentagon announced framework for new multiyear deals with three companies to mass-produce more affordable, less gold-plated air-to-ground missiles for Air Force, part of larger strategy to bring cheaper firepower to future fights.

Air Force recently conducted its first-ever live-fire test using the Anduril YFQ-44A unmanned, semiautonomous drone aircraft dubbed “loyal wingmen.”

DIU aims to reduce military’s ‘cost per kill.’ Elevated by its new status as an official Pentagon Field Activity, Defense Innovation Unit is under pressure to speedily deliver “measurable” weaponry and combat power to U.S. military.

But there are still issues. Manufacturing woes hamper U.S. 155mm ammo production. New report says artillery shell producers are far short of goal to manufacture 100,000 Howitzer shells per month.

HOMELAND DEFENSE

Military planners have examined options for possible action against Cuba, including Army-led air assault involving 101st Airborne Division.

HOMELAND SECURITY

More than 60 people have died in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) shootings or while in custody since President Trump returned to office. These higher numbers reflect the higher number of detentions, and Democrat local and state refusal to cooperate with ICE requiring more aggressive tactics.

Free subscribers get valuable content, but paid subscribers get full access.

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Despite the White House denials, the refurbished luxury airliner President Trump is now using as Air Force One likely lacks some of the more robust security measures and countermeasures of the older VC-25A planes. Earlier I wrote about how President Trump was taking his Qatari-gifted interim (or bridge) Air Force One on first official flight for the 4^th of July “250^th” celebrations.

He first flew to the festivities at Mt Rushmore, South Dakota, on January 3^rd, where the jet was photographed majestically flying over the monument.

The next day, the 4^th, Trump took the almost brand-new Boeing 747-8 worth at least $400 million donated by the Qatari royal family on a flight leading a massive military flyover DC, providing another amazing photo opportunity.

The plane is stunning, modern, spacious and luxurious. And I do love the bold dark blue, red, white and gold color scheme for its new livery. However, as I have repeatedly noted over the past year, it is likely not a fully mission-capable presidential aircraft. This is partly due to it not being custom-built from the ground up as a presidential aircraft, and partly due to the compressed timeline to refurbish it.

Instead of taking a couple of years, they did it in under 10 months.

And this may have become painfully clear just days later during Trump’s recent overseas flight to Turkey for a NATO summit. While he flew in on the new jet, the Secret Service urged him to fly back to the UK aboard the older Air Force One aircraft, ostensibly for security reasons being so close to Iran.

This is something I have previously noted. In my earlier piece, I wrote that:

The luxury jet was overhauled by defense contractor L3Harris working 24-hour shifts, and retrofitted with security upgrades, secure communications and missile defenses. While any potential threats from the previously owned aircraft have [reportedly] been “neutralized.”

[However] Some experts say due to the accelerated conversion the new plane may not match the full security capabilities of the current Air Force One fleet, perhaps limiting its use to domestic travel.

In other pieces I wrote months back, I also surmised that the new plane would not be used for overseas travel where security was a major concern. This is why I was surprised to see the plane being used on an overseas trip so close to a war zone.

And I wasn’t the only one. Frank Kendall, the former Air Force secretary who was in charge of the department as it dealt with Boeing to deliver the two new long-delayed Air Force One planes, said: “Frankly, I’m surprised to see this plane used outside the U.S.”

The Department of Justice has since subpoenaed New York Times reporters about their sources for their story on the new jet’s security concerns. While Trump and the White House rejected any security factors for the change in aircraft, the Air Force and some officials were less persuasive.

In a statement on June 19, the Air Force said: “No risk was taken in security, safety or mission communications.” However, it added: “But the collective team made trades on some of the less commonly used mission sets that Boeing must deliver to support the next 40 years.”

Since most details related to Air Force One are classified, the Air Force would not say what it meant by “less commonly used mission sets.” However, some experts believe that refers to certain combat scenarios where active aerial countermeasures may be needed.

According to the New York Times, officials familiar with the retrofit said the donated aircraft lacks some of the sophisticated countermeasures found on the existing Air Force One, including an advanced directional missile-defense system to defeat heat-seeking missiles.

Astute observers have noted that different parts of that defensive systems are visible on the old Air Force One, under the wing of the plane and on its tail cone but they are not visible in photographs of the new Qatari plane.

CBS News specifically reported the older aircraft is equipped with laser technology and other systems designed to defeat incoming missiles and may be absent on the Qatari-donated jet.

The older planes are also believed to carry aerial flares to divert heat seeking missiles, and chaff, bundles of metallic strips shot out of the aircraft to confuse radar-guided missiles, as well as advanced integrated electronic warfare countermeasures.

And, as CNN reported, special antennas are also critical to ensure the plane’s encrypted communications are secure, Kendall said, adding, “You have to basically do structural changes to put the antennas in. Some of that, I’m sure they did. I’m not sure how much.”

It’s also not clear what kind of defense in case of nuclear attacks and associated electromagnetic pulses (EMP) hardening the new jets have compared to the old ones which were designed during the Cold War and had those defenses built into the plane from the beginning.

Finally, Air Force One typically also includes a medical suite that can function as an operating room, and a doctor is permanently on board, but not much has been said about this capability onboard the new Qatari-gifted plane.

“I think in all three of those areas: the life support, the commander in chief support, the comms, and the security side, they probably did less by a substantial amount than a full-up Air Force One,” Kendall said.

President Trump seemed to acknowledge the threat of attack, saying Air Force One could be a “dangerous plane because of the sleaze bags we have to deal with,” Trump said shortly after takeoff on the old jet. “These are sick people, so I could see something like that.”

Paul Crespo, a well known conservative commentator, and President of the Center for American Defense Studies, brings decades of experience and insight to the issues that most threaten America – at home and abroad.

As a Marine Corps combat arms officer, he served aboard ships with a Marine Expeditionary Unit — Special Operations Capable (MEU-SOC) in the Pacific, and jumped from helicopters and airplanes.

He was also an intelligence officer and military attaché with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) at U.S. embassies in the Persian Gulf, Balkans and Latin America.

A graduate of Georgetown, London and Cambridge universities, he ran for congress, taught university political science courses, wrote editorials for a major newspaper and co-hosted his own radio show.

He has also been a private military and security contractor overseas in Africa and Latin America — and still dabbles in it, when called. But he now also brings all that knowledge and expertise to you.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY — THE PDB — Not the President’s Daily Briefing, but almost as good — PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF.

The top defense news and intelligence from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO:

TOPLINE STORY

War Secretary Pete Hegseth’s effort is paying off. As recent conflicts consume weapons at ferocious rate, U.S. defense industrial base is becoming more prepared to sustain major war, says new report. “The trends are moving in the right direction,” said Jerry McGinn, co-authored of study for Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank.

However, the study — described as a progress report on reforms to the defense manufacturing and acquisition system — still found numerous problems with ramping up and sustaining wartime production.

For example, “according to several measures — manufacturing lead times, critical munitions and materials stockpiles, and supply chain security — the U.S. industrial base has a long way to go to achieve resilience,” warned the analysis by CSIS’s Center for the Industrial Base.

Still, CSIS did find measurable improvements just since November 2025 (only 8 months ago), when Secretary of War Pete Hegseth vowed to “transform the entire acquisition system to operate on a wartime footing.”

Hegseth also promised to “inspire American industry to become a wartime industrial base that focuses on speed and volume.”

Most striking is the number of new companies in the defense field.

“Roughly 10,000 new firms have entered the market in the past two years and nontraditional companies received over $120 billion in contract obligations in FY 2025, adding competition and innovation to the sector,” CSIS noted.

READ THE FULL CSIS report here.

Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM

Lindsey Graham, GOP senator and retired Air Force Reserve colonel, remembered for relishing challenges of public life. In conjunction with his time in Congress, Graham spent 33 years in Air Force across three components —active-duty staff judge advocate, South Carolina Air National Guard officer and senior lawyer in Air Force Reserve.

Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death is major blow to Israel’s efforts to persuade U.S. to keep up its military campaign against Iran, as well as other Israeli goals in Washington.

NATIONAL SECURITY

Russia and U.S. are rediscovering the limits of nuclear weapons. Henry Kissinger often said that nuclear arms are “weapons in search of a doctrine.” After Cold War, some strategists tried to figure out what these weapons could buy them beyond deterrence. The answer, as it turns out, is: not much.

America’s military plans depend on infrastructure it doesn’t secure. Military power is meaningless if it cannot move.

America’s export controls are becoming a strategic liability.

HOMELAND DEFENSE

North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), operated by Canada and U.S. has gaping holes in airspace radar coverage. Ottawa hopes to fill some of those gaps with new over-the-horizon radar system from Australia.

Money well spent. Pentagon has spent at least $2.64 billion on border protection operations at southwest border with Mexico.

DEFENSE POLITICS

Pentagon placed an immediate freeze on forthcoming cybersecurity requirements after government research suggested policy would drive many businesses out of defense industrial base at time when military urgently needs their innovations.

Department of Justice and Pentagon have created joint task force to identify and prosecute “unauthorized disclosure of sensitive information” to news media.

Democrat senators led by Kirsten Gillibrand called for Trump administration to disclose within next week findings from military investigation into Feb. 28 strike at girls’ school in Iran.

IRAN WAR

U.S. military will begin enforcing a maritime blockade on Iran on Tuesday, U.S. Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center said on Monday.

After proposing it just a day earlier, Trump nixes U.S. 20% Strait of Hormuz toll proposal, opting instead pursue trade and investment deals with Gulf states.

Central Command used three Corsair unmanned surface vessels to strike submarine and ship maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas naval base in Iran, marking “first time American forces have employed sea drones in combat operations.”

Video released by Pentagon shows three Corsair attack drones hitting Iranian naval base.

The sorry record of regime-change operations in Middle East. When Trump announced start of Operation Epic Fury, joint U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran, among mission’s goals was overthrow of the Islamic Republic. “When we are finished,” Trump told the Iranian people, “take over your government. It will be yours to take.”

RUSSIA THREAT/UKRAINE WAR

9 nations have joined Ukraine in nascent anti-ballistic coalition to speed up production of Ukraine’s Freyja interceptor system (lower cost Patriot alternative) and get it operational within a year.

Ukraine lands armed robot ashore in Russian-held territory in southern Ukraine via drone boat, reflecting Kyiv’s rapid embrace of uncrewed systems o counter Russia’s invasion.

EUROPEAN DEFENSE

Germany’s Helsing raised $1.8 billion in Europe’s biggest-ever funding round for a defense-technology startup, valuing the company at $18 billion and continuing flurry of mega rounds for continent’s defense industry.

‘Hydis’ project to develop European interceptor against hypersonic threats settled on concept based on solid-propellant rocket motor, according to MBDA, Europe’s biggest missile maker.

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Trump’s dangerous bet on Pakistan’s army chief as Iran mediator.

Congo’s Ebola outbreak spreads to two more provinces.

US MILITARY

Active-duty airmen have 18 days to submit current waist-to-height ratio. Air Force reinforces focus on fitness, dress and appearance standards to airmen.

END of PDB

Paul Crespo, a well known conservative commentator, and President of the Center for American Defense Studies, brings decades of experience and insight to the issues that most threaten America – at home and abroad.

As a Marine Corps combat arms officer, he served aboard ships with a Marine Expeditionary Unit — Special Operations Capable (MEU-SOC) in the Pacific, and jumped from helicopters and airplanes.

He was also an intelligence officer and military attaché with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) at U.S. embassies in the Persian Gulf, Balkans and Latin America.

A graduate of Georgetown, London and Cambridge universities, he ran for congress, taught university political science courses, wrote editorials for a major newspaper and co-hosted his own radio show.

He has also been a private military and security contractor overseas in Africa and Latin America — and still dabbles in it, when called. But he now also brings all that knowledge and expertise to you.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY — THE PDB — Not the President’s Daily Briefing, but almost as good — PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF.

The top defense news and intelligence from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO:

TOPLINE STORY

U.S. launches new wave of strikes against Iran as Tehran says diplomacy has proven ‘futile.’ American and Iranian forces exchange heavy missile and drone attacks over control of Strait of Hormuz.

Trump failed to secure Strait of Hormuz in his Iran deal. Iran said gave it control of the waterway — and global energy supplies. Now, Iran’s military is violently asserting authority.

Trump claims Strait of Hormuz open to commercial traffic despite Iran earlier announcing closure.

Gulf companies are set to reveal the unequal toll of Iran war.

On negotiating with criminal/terrorist organizations, states, and other entities. Pending the failed cease-fire and Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between U.S. and Iran, all eyes are on the ongoing, difficult negotiations mediated by Pakistan, Oman, Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt.

How Hezbollah’s risk strategy made Lebanon impossible to ignore. U.S. and Iran’s framework agreement focused on direct U.S.-Iran dimensions of the deal, including reopening of Strait of Hormuz, lifting U.S. naval blockade, and Iran’s nuclear program. Washington had spent months treating Lebanon as separate issue in negotiations.

Whichever way the war ends, Iran is losing Iraq. Splintering of Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a powerful umbrella coalition of mostly Shiite militias, is a prominent example. Iran’s allied militias are being pushed toward the margins of Iraqi politics.

US POWER OVERSEAS

USS Abraham Lincoln has spent nearly seven months at sea, a grueling pace of operations with no clear end in sight.

Marines on Guam recently fired the service’s new Medium-Range Intercept Capability system, Corps’ first medium-range air defense system since divestment of the service’s legacy HAWK platform in 1990s.

Free subscribers get valuable content, but paid subscribers get full access.

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After the shocking string of victories for the Zohran Mamdani-backed Democratic Socialists in various Democrat primaries in New York, Colorado, Washington, D.C., and even in Kentucky, President Trump has declared communism as the new mortal threat to America.

And that threat is now spearheaded by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) the far-left group which now includes a growing caucus of supporters in Congress, has mayoral candidates well positioned to win in several big cities, and has plans to throw its weight behind a yet-to-be-determined presidential candidate in 2028.

In his speech at Mount Rushmore on the eve of July 4, Trump had two clear messages. The first, expected, message was a traditional celebration of the nation’s 250th anniversary. The second, less expected message was a warning about a “resurgence of the communist menace” in the United States.

“As we approach this magnificent anniversary, we see our American identity under a renewed attack, a generation after we fought and won the Cold War against the menace of communism,” Trump said. “There is now a resurgence of the communist menace in our land, including from newcomers to our country who embrace ideas totally opposed to our way of life and our great success. These are not mere political disagreements like differences over taxes or regulations. Communism is a mortal threat to American liberty.”

Trump followed those remarks with more anti-communist talk during his July Fourth speech at the National Mall. The left-leaning media quickly branded Trump’s warning, the new “RED SCARE.” CNN’s Kaitlan Collins, in particular, pushed back on Trump’s anti-communist rhetoric:

Democratic socialism ‘is not communism.’ https://t.co/9G4J2WBCNU

Collins challenged the president’s “border[line] apocalyptic” comments that America could become a communist nation.

“While Democrats themselves have been wrestling with what Tuesday night means for the direction of their party, socialism, much less democratic socialism, is not communism,” she said.

Despite Collins ignorant smug self assurance, she is flat out wrong and Trump is right.

He may not be fully versed in the nuances, theory or history of communism and socialism, but Trump understands that today’s socialists, including the DSA, are pretty much thinly veiled communists. And communism is the antithesis of America and its values.

Communists despise America and claim everything about it, its founding, system and history, is rotten to the core. They want to tear it down and rebuild it in a Marxist or neo-Marxist mold.

To do that they need to radically transform our country from a democratic republic of individual liberty, traditional family values, free markets and the rule of law to a Socialist “utopia” where the state mandates everything to achieve equity, or the equality of results, for the collective.

But America’s foundational identity is built entirely on individualism, an entrepreneurial spirit, private property, and free enterprise. Nationalizing industries or heavily regulating markets to equalize results actively undermines the American Dream.

“Equalizing” wealth removes the material incentive to work hard, innovate, or take entrepreneurial risks. Without the potential for greater individual reward, productivity falls, ultimately leading to economic stagnation.

And since socialism requires centralized state control over the economy, it inherently expands government power. This becomes a slippery slope toward authoritarianism, stripping citizens of personal freedoms and economic self-determination.

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“New polling shows a historic, and deeply partisan, decline in how proud Americans feel about their country, with Democrats driving nearly all of the drop.”

While most of us are happily celebrating America’s declaration of independence from Britain and showing pride in our nation and political system this weekend, many Americans, mostly Democrats, are not.

Instead, they are seething and resentful and simply unpatriotic. And it’s not MAGA or Republicans claiming this, it is Democrats themselves and numerous polls over the past two decades.

And don’t blame Trump, or whoever is in office. While Republicans have remained consistently patriotic, even under despised Democrat rule, Democrats’ declining patriotism began 20 years ago, and only got worse under Trump.

With the explosive rise of extreme-left socialists in the Democrat Party, expect this growing lack of patriotism, and America-hating, to continue well after Trump is gone.
Paul Crespo

This ‘USA TODAY’ opinion piece by Ingrid Jacques from June 22, 2026 explains the sad reality.

Forget Trump. Democrats have lost faith in America itself.

Ingrid Jacques

USA TODAY, June 22, 2026.

Actor Robert De Niro recently had some choice words about his country, delivered at the celebrity-filled, anti-Trump bash “Rise Up, Sing Out” held in New York City on June 14 as counterprogramming to President Donald Trump’s UFC fight on the White House lawn.

“I hate to say it, but loving our country is starting to sound like an abused spouse saying they love their abuser,” De Niro said. “I can’t love a country that’s led by a racist, misogynist, xenophobic tyrant. And let me just say it: I can’t love the country that’s led by Donald Trump and his sycophant Congress.”

Love of country should not be conditional. With America’s 250th birthday around the corner, that kind of talk is alarming. And while De Niro, a Democrat, has long had it out for Trump, transferring that distaste – even hatred – for the sitting president to the country itself goes far beyond this one disgruntled Hollywood star.

Recent polls highlight just how large the partisan divide is when it comes to who’s proud to be an American. Although Trump’s presence in the White House has caused sharp drops in Democratic pride, the trend line over the past 25 years has been downward.

Even traditional symbols of American pride are becoming political signifiers. Have a flag waving outside your home? Plan to attend a fireworks show? You’re most likely a Republican.

That wasn’t always the case.

For Republicans, pride in country is consistent. Not so with Democrats.

A new NBC News poll shows that “Americans have a bleak outlook on the nation’s future,” which is an understatement when you dig into the numbers. From faith in the country’s institutions to pride in the country itself, our fellow citizens aren’t feeling optimistic. The poll found a record-low number of Americans who say they are extremely proud to be Americans.

After the terrorist attack on Sept. 11, 2001, 82% of Americans said they were extremely or very proud of their country. Now, 33% say they are extremely proud and 23% say they are very proud (56% total).

It’s a dramatic decline. And it’s being driven by Democrats.

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The NBC News survey found that 62% of 2024 Trump voters say they are extremely proud to be Americans, compared with just 12% of Kamala Harris voters. Among Republicans, 90% are extremely or very proud. Among Democrats, that number sits at just 29%.

Age is another predictor of national pride, with only 36% of Americans ages 18-34 saying they are extremely or very proud, in contrast to 75% of those 65 and older.

Overall, Republicans’ pride in country has held steady regardless of the political moment, averaging 90% since 2001, according to a 2025 Gallup survey.

Democrats also started close to 90% in 2001, but have been sliding since then (with some precipitous drops during the Trump years). As of last year, the number stood at 36%, compared with 92% of Republicans.

Will we have a country in another 250 years? Many say no.

Given this dissatisfaction with the country, it’s not surprising that a significant swath of Americans don’t think it can survive another 250 years.

A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 38% of citizens feel this way, with 40% of Democrats and 26% of Republicans saying they don’t think America will exist as a single country in 2276.

As a proud American myself, this is discouraging.

Pride is an important measure because it should transcend whatever politicians inhabit the swampland of Washington, DC. It reflects something deeper – faith in our founding documents and the principles of individual liberty that have shepherded our country thus far, and hope that they will continue to do so.

The fact that Democrats have steadily lost this pride over the past quarter century points to a deeper dissatisfaction with the more intrinsic qualities of our nation.

At the “Rise Up, Sing Out” event, De Niro concluded, “I want to love my country again.”

He should have never stopped.

Ingrid Jacques is a columnist at USA TODAY. Contact her at ijacques@usatoday.com or on X: @Ingrid_Jacques.

READ HER ARTICLE AT USA TODAY.

Paul Crespo, a well known conservative commentator, and President of the Center for American Defense Studies, brings decades of experience and insight to the issues that most threaten America – at home and abroad.

As a Marine Corps combat arms officer, he served aboard ships with a Marine Expeditionary Unit — Special Operations Capable (MEU-SOC) in the Pacific, and jumped from helicopters and airplanes.

He was also an intelligence officer and military attaché with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) at U.S. embassies in the Persian Gulf, Balkans and Latin America.

A graduate of Georgetown, London and Cambridge universities, he ran for congress, taught university political science courses, wrote editorials for a major newspaper and co-hosted his own radio show.

He has also been a private military and security contractor overseas in Africa and Latin America — and still dabbles in it, when called. But he now also brings all that knowledge and expertise to you.

Low-yield nuclear deterrence gap is real and America needs more low-yield nukes. Low yield nukes range from 0.3 kilotons up to 5-8 kilotons of explosive power, and include air-dropped guided bombs and sub-launched missiles. For comparison, the atomic bombs dropped on Japan were about 15 kilotons each.

Standard strategic nuclear warheads range in power from 90 to 475 kilotons and can de deployed in groups of three to ten per weapon.

In 2018, as an outgrowth of rigorous policy review process, Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review identified need for supplemental low-yield nuclear capabilities to augment U.S. nuclear arsenal.

This was presented as effort to raise nuclear threshold of adversaries who may believe they could employ nuclear weapons in limited ways to escalate their way out of failed or failing conventional conflict. The Russians, in particular have a number of low-yield nuclear options, and have threatened their use.

To address this, 2018 Nuclear Posture Review called for introduction of two supplemental low-yield nuclear capabilities: a submarine-launched ballistic missile and a nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile. Eventually, U.S. fielded low-yield submarine-launched ballistic missile warhead, designated W76-2.

Though Biden administration later cancelled the nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile, Congress in 2024 resurrected it, directing Pentagon to pursue the capability.

More recently, Defense official responsible for nuclear deterrence policy and programs testified to importance of such theater-range nuclear options, noting that the nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile is just “one example.”

READ MORE on ‘War on the Rocks.’

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Free subscribers get valuable content, but paid subscribers get full access.

US POWER OVERSEAS

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Iran and U.S. agree to halt attacks and renew talks. Move raises hopes of saving interim peace deal under pressure from days of tit-for-tat strikes.

Qatar says citizen killed from shrapnel due to ‘military operations’ in the area after vessel carrying him and another person went missing.

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Sustained Ukrainian air strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and supply routes have sparked a fuel crisis in Russia and areas of Ukraine it occupies.

Ukraine used Flamingo missiles to attack military plant in Russia’s Volgograd and drones to strike an oil station in the Vladimir region close to Moscow, as Kyiv aims to bring Moscow to negotiating table to end war.

EUROPEAN DEFENSE

Romania received its first new warship in 30 years last week with a Turkish-built corvette to boost Black Sea security and relations with Turkey at same time.

Munich-based counter-drone systems startup Tytan Technologies to launch new factory in Germany making 3,000 interceptor drones per month amid increasing demand.

“Heat dome” developing over western and central Europe could engulf continent in long-lasting heatwave, triggering red alerts in France, Spain, Italy and UK as June temperatures break historical record.

NORTH KOREA THREAT

South Korea to train half a million military personnel to become ‘drone warriors.’ All branches will be taught how to use technology that has become ‘game changer on the battlefield.’

INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

Two powerful earthquakes measuring 7.2 and 7.5 rocked Venezuela, flattening buildings in Caracas and likely killing thousands.

Two U.S. warships, USS Fort Lauderdale and littoral combat ship USS Billings, have been dispatched to Venezuela following nation’s devastating earthquakes Wednesday.

This is a huge deal! Colombia cements Latin America’s rightward shift as Trump-backed political outsider wins Colombia election.

5 right-wing leaders elected in Latin America in less than a year.

Pakistan has said it carried out airstrikes and ground operations in eastern Afghanistan, killing 25 Taliban or ISIS terrorists, in response to recent deadly attacks, including the killing of paramilitary troops in Karachi.

US MILITARY

All five active-duty military services met or exceeded their fiscal 2025 recruiting goals, marking strongest recruiting performance in 15 years.

New agentic-AI tool will continuously scan intelligence feeds and operational networks to provide commanders with targeting options “within seconds.”

Army’s 101st Division soldiers use drones to drop grappling hooks, breach razor wire, expanding scope of what’s possible with warfighting drones and how to build them into warfighting.

Army launching Space Operations Branch, a dedicated career field for soldiers specializing in military space operations.

Air Force seeks next generation long-range air-to-air weapon with a minimum range of 1,000 nautical miles.

Like a pit crew for an attack helicopter: Watch a Viper get rearmed with live munitions.

Paul Crespo, a well known conservative commentator, and President of the Center for American Defense Studies, brings decades of experience and insight to the issues that most threaten America – at home and abroad.

As a Marine Corps combat arms officer, he served aboard ships with a Marine Expeditionary Unit — Special Operations Capable (MEU-SOC) in the Pacific, and jumped from helicopters and airplanes.

He was also an intelligence officer and military attaché with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) at U.S. embassies in the Persian Gulf, Balkans and Latin America.

A graduate of Georgetown, London and Cambridge universities, he ran for congress, taught university political science courses, wrote editorials for a major newspaper and co-hosted his own radio show.

He has also been a private military and security contractor overseas in Africa and Latin America — and still dabbles in it, when called. But he now also brings all that knowledge and expertise to you.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY — THE PDB — Not the President’s Daily Briefing, but almost as good — PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF.

The top defense news and intelligence from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO:

TOPLINE STORY

Trump congratulated China on its “massive … win” after the Supreme Court shot down his executive order trying to restrict birthright citizenship in the U.S.

Court said Constitution guarantees automatic citizenship to nearly everyone born on U.S. soil, including children born to illegal immigrants and temporary visitors.

During oral arguments, Trump team pointed to China’s “birth tourism,” where Chinese women come to U.S. specifically to give birth. Those children enjoy automatic citizenship.

Entire industry has emerged to facilitate the births, charging tens of thousands of dollars to help foreign women get travel visas, house them while they’re here and even apply for government assistance programs to help offset medical costs.

Birth tourism isn’t limited to China, though it’s a huge player. These women usually return home with their new children, who are raised far from U.S. Justices Thomas and Alito, who dissented from the ruling, cited problem of tourism in their opinions.

Alito added the practice creates national security issue by allowing people of enemy nations to obtain U.S. citizenship and go back home to be raised as enemies of U.S.

READ MORE at Washington Times.

NATIONAL SECURITY

As relationship between U.S. and Canada continues to degrade, it comes at expense of two countries’ defense industrial alliance.

In U.S. the ties between industry and defense go back to country’s founding. Starting with George Washington creating Springfield Armory, country has fused war and business like never before.

DEFENSE POLITICS

Bipartisan bill in Senate would allow troops to file claims against War Department for incidents of sexual assault or harassment that happen while serving on active duty.

Billionaire venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, one-time Democrat supporter who switched to Donald Trump, got spot with several other prominent GOP politicians and former officials on top Pentagon advisory board.

Free subscribers get valuable content, but paid subscribers get full access.

PDB CONTINUES BELOW. TO READ THE FULL BRIEF PLEASE BECOME A PAID SUBSCRIBER.

Get Full Access - Upgrade to Paid

Read more

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY — THE PDB — Not the President’s Daily Briefing, but almost as good — PAUL’S DEFENSE BRIEF.

The top defense news and intelligence from conservative national security expert PAUL CRESPO:

TOPLINE STORY

Trump’s Iran deal. And what about Israel? U.S. and Iran have reportedly agreed to terms to end their war and reopen Strait of Hormuz, although pact may hinge on end to hostilities in Lebanon and defers talks on Tehran’s nuclear program.

What to know about deal to end Iran war. Iran and U.S. are trumpeting their tentative agreement aimed at ending their war as victory. But so far there is no word on what’s actually in it.

U.S. had no choice but diplomacy—yet again. Declaring “deal is all signed” with Iran, as President Trump did, is like shopping for a wedding dress after good first date: It’s just too soon.

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European leaders said they’re ready to deploy military assets to reopen Strait of Hormuz once preliminary peace agreement announced between U.S. and Iran is implemented.

Israeli officials defiant over apparent inclusion of Lebanon ceasefire in U.S.-Iran deal. Defense minister, Israel Katz, says military forces will not withdraw from territory seized in south Lebanon.

NATIONAL SECURITY

White House ratcheting up its war against Anthropic. But if AI is poised to become most important technology ever made, whichever country commands the most powerful bots will dominate rest of century and beyond. Government should just get out of Silicon Valley’s way.

Anthropic’s Retreat Is a Win for China’s ‘Open AI.’

America’s veterans are a defense-tech industry asset — we’re wasting them.

Free subscribers get valuable content, but paid subscribers get full access.

PDB CONTINUES BELOW. TO READ THE FULL BRIEF PLEASE BECOME A PAID SUBSCRIBER.

Get Full Access - Upgrade to Paid

Read more