The monthly payroll (SEPH) Daily starts with a chart really showing that not much is happening. Annual growth is only 0.8% in total payroll employment. Short-term variation is not exciting given the survey (partial) nature of the data vehicle. My first charts combine hours with employment to bring the part-time element into play.

The obvious point is that the stories are not that similar across the country. However, it is not really a race. AB has returned to growth. BC’s recovery is good to see. QC and ON are the average.

Aggregate employment by province shows weakness but recovery in QC, and ON in recent months (p50). Zeroing in on the critical services sectors emphasizes the relative issues in central Canada.

Goods Detail

Note that this chart is annual change measures. The good news is that the larger provinces are holding their own with the exception of BC.

If we look at construction. we see that the picture is not very strong in both BC and ON.

The large-province time series shows that ON is well off its hot pace.

Services Detail

The Daily attributes some of the growth to the short-run effects of the census.

Professional services has been weak in central Canada.

Retail trade growth has not been strong in QC

Recent improvements mask longer run issues in ON.

Wages

Wholesale wages seem to be moving up in recent months whereas retail seems stable.

Vacancy Rates by Sector

Detailed Charts

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Payroll detail through 2026-06

Starting points make comparison fun. Gasoline and energy prices thanks to Trumpian stupidity are providing lots of movement.

The high import content of clothing and many household items makes their price change very sensitive to exchange rates and foreign prices (p123 -import prices). World cup tourism provided some flip in transportation costs. Jet fuel costs also were a factor.

Gasoline

I expect that most drivers are sensitive only to short-run movements in gasoline costs. Atlantic Canada has possibly competition issues (Irving?)

There may be a shock in September depending on the Federal tax settings.

Food at Home

Starting points are critical. Note the volatility in fresh fruit prices.

As would be expected, the seasonal factors in domestic and foreign supply are impacting the prices of fruits and vegetables.

Provincial variation reflects distribution (competition) and marketing factors. Regional differences are important.

Shelter - Rent

Local supply factors trend to drive the market.

Clothing

As we get into summer, clothing may be more of a retail issue.

Local retail competition and the exchange rate are some of the factors. The pattern for male clothing is somewhat different.

This may reflect both household income and demographics as well as supply issues.

Import Factors

This chart from the detailed charts shows how annual price change has been moving for some key consumer-related imports.

Final Thoughts

Domestic competition in the consumer sector is a challenge. Lower corporate taxes will not benefit consumers but will help the major corporations in the distribution sector. Domestic monetary policies are ineffective against supply issues.

There is a lot of detail in the charts. Please use the material

Detailed Charts

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CPI through 2026-07

There is much positive data in the Canadian aggregate trends given the MAGA horror to our south. Strong growth in ON and BC contributed to the national picture. However, consistent results cannot be expected or assumed across the diverse Canadian economy.

For ON, the big pop is in part-time where as there was a retreat in part-time in both QC and BC. The volatility continues to be significant but we have to remember the limitations of the survey.

On the full-time side, gains in QC and BC helped to offset pull-backs in ON and BC. For ON, this is the second retreat in this period.

Aggregate Trends

The downturn in QC’s trend cycle in the east and BC’s in the west suggest a complex story. ON’s trend has seriously flattened. The charts are partitioned into goods and services in the detail (p77,78)

The Canada picture should not be interpreted as showing a strong medium-term trend. However, supported by ON’s recovery, things could be worse.

Industrial Details

The industrial story varies significantly across the country.

Construction and manufacturing show significant volatility. The falloff in public administration can be partially attributed to the census effect. Finance and professional services show strong proportionate gains for their sectors.

If we look at the 4 larger provinces, the diversity of stories becomes apparent.

Similar charts for all provinces are in the detail.

Employment Rates

Employment rates are most meaningful at the smaller areas (IMHO). The next chart shows that the gains in prime-age employment are focussed in QC and BC in the larger province set. In ON, there is a gain of 2.1 points in the employment rate for 15-24 age group. In BC, the employment rate for these younger workers increased by 4 points. Gender and other breaks are available in the detailed charts.

Concluding thoughts

We can take some solace in the resilience of our regional economies. Multiple drivers give us some stability. However, this is not a high growth economy. We must be concerned about the lack of competition in domestic sectors and other factors that may be restraining our gains. As an open economy, foreign policies are causing us more challenges.

Detailed Charts

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Detailed LFS Charts through 2026-07

If we are going to talk about nominal merchandise flows, we might as well show that the US which now takes only 69.5 % of our merchandise exports (p20).

That share is highly influenced by energy prices.

I have used the annual change in this chart. There are big flips in commodities such as unwrought gold which affect trade with other countries.

On the import side, the picture is relatively stable.

In volume terms, imports always exceed exports but exports are climbing as import volumes retreat.

Unwrought Gold - Asset

Looking at the volume of metal and non-metallic products, we can see that exports have “rebounded” by 16.2%,

Exports to the UK is important relative to other non-US countries.

Automotive

Export volumes are returning roughly to trend for the motor vehicles sector. The Daily notes production increases,

Energy Trade

The Daily mentions revisions in oil export estimates because of price,

Technology - electronic equipment

The import gains are driven by investment including processing units used in data centres. There is a real break in trend.

The sourcing from the US is apparent. Imports of industrial machinery are down from previous peaks (p28). The decline is particularly noticeable in the country import charts (p16,17) with recent drops from China and Germany. This may suggest issues for domestic investment

Concluding Thoughts

As always, the data shows the importance of the US in our trade but also the gradual reallocation. More importantly, it shows that we have leverage in the US market. IMHO, trade agreements with an untrustworthy counterparty are not worth any major sacrifice. The rest of the world wants us.

Detailed Charts

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Merchandise Trade by Commodity

Merchandise Trade by Country

For an export-oriented economy with aggressive trading partners, things could look much worse for Canada. Business sector services contributed a bigger share to aggregate GDP than the good sectors.

The growth rates (0.6% goods and 0.2%( services) can be seen in the summary growth rate table at the end of the report.

For me, contribution is more critical than growth. The broad energy sector is contributing 0.11 percentage points to the aggregate compared to 0.2 in the previous month. Mining with oil and gas is very important but the aggregate picture is not strong.

The index charts set the picture.

Not withstanding recent growth months, the goods producing industries are lagging in the medium-term picture.

Goods producing

Durable manufacturing is digging down. Similarly, the non-durable [NAICS T011] aggregate is weak. With a medium-term lens, recent gains don’t add much excitement.

Construction

Residential is recovering but the trend is not strong [NAICS 23A] (p39) but non-residential activity is decent [NAICS 34B] (p40) but down from peaks.

Manufacturing

Machinery [333]has been a strong sector in recent years but is not trending anywhere towards up. The other durables sectors are not diving but as not strong. On the non-durable side, petroleum and coal (refining) has come off peaks bur is recovering. Technology and tariffs have really dug a hole for paper manufacturing [322].

Services

The census has bent the curve for government services back after a decline (p98).

Professional services is slowing but still very important [54]. The upturn in real estate activity is good but the long-term path is not strong.

Advance Estimate

The advance team at StatCan suggests a growth of 0.2% for June with service growth offset by goods weakness.

Detailed Charts

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Monthly Industry GDP through 2026-05

Particularly with factors such as the Census and disaster response, part-time work will assume some importance. Plotting hours highlights the basic issue.

The recovery from the beginning of the year weakness shapes the green aggregate line. Weather affected hours. Wage earnings charts show provincial income disparity (P30). BC has substantially stronger wage bill growth than the rest of the west (p29).

Payroll employment has not been growing strongly in central Canada relative to the rest of the country.

Construction

The construction sector is stalled in Ontario and has declined from previous peaks

Services

Relatively QC has broad challenges.

The upswing in public administration in central Canada may be census related.

Health care employment has been recently flat in QC.'

Growth has been steady for health and welfare in the other large provinces.

Compensation

Retail trade wages are doing well. Professional service wage growth is not strong.

Vacancies

The vacancy rate in the health sector is improving. Over the last 3 years, stable rates seem to be the rule in the other sectors.

Data Charts

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Payroll and Vacancies detail through 2026-05

Most of us have started to take the volatility of fossil fuel (gasoline) prices in stride since the start of Trump’s war of choice. The energy action has been significant.

Whether the diplomatic talks matter for long-term planning is a question. The detailed charts shows a 6-month window which highlight the recent change as only slightly more than 10 points. Starting points matter.

Luckily, the demands associated with World Cup travel are not a long-term demand factor.

Food from stores

Food from stores is always an issue. My recent substack indicates the supply factors that dominate food production.

Farm Input Costs

The impact of domestic fruit and vegetables is critical in season.

Energy costs are important but not critical to food costs. Distribution margins are a bigger issues that should be amenable to policy action. Statistics Canada has a nice display as part of their food prices hub which indicate that grocers’ margins has rise11.2% in annual terms by May 2026.

Food Price Data Hub

The chart below shows the significant increase in grocery store margins.

We do not have enough competition. Retailers are riding the price increases up to the detriment of consumers.

Regional issues

Some regional differences are explained by the shelter market which is local. Rental price change is broadly higher in Atlantic Canada (p80).

Detailed Charts

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CPI through 2026-06

Our CPI analysis looks more at food costs. Domestically-supplied food is dominated by supply effects. Demand management using the policy rate is less of an issue. We do have an issue with processing retail competition and margins at the retail and processing levels.

At this juncture, the key supply influences are production costs for inputs such as fertilizer, fuel and feed animals. Prices for the latter reflect earlier supply decisions (herd size) and international demand.

Prices for fertilizer and feed animals will affect food costs in subsequent seasons.

Crop production

The spike in fertilizer costs are going to haunt our price picture for some time. Current planting is presumably largely done prior to the recent middle-East war.

It is useful to see the difference between prairie agriculture and ON.

Animal Production

Cattle are a long-t erm proposition. It takes a year or more to bring a calf to market. Sows produce 2+ littlers of multiple piglets per year. This makes the economics very different and partially explains the cost-effective supply of pork.

Again, we will contrast SK and ON.

As the herds have been rebuilt, cattle purchase costs have declined but the big increases in cattle supply costs are reflected and will be reflected in our food costs.

General costs

Fuel and machinery costs dominate farm input costs. Anecdotes suggest that farmers are retaining older hardware because of depreciation and repair costs. This may have an effect on fuel and labour efficiency.

Comparing SK and ON is useful.

The spike in fuel costs will likely be reflected in product prices in the near and medium term.

Detailed Charts

The complete provincial breakdown is included. AI is not used. All charts and ideas are the responsibility of Paul Jacobson.

Farm input costs

We should be grateful for the vast array of data products supplied by StatCan. My notes discuss what interests me this month and does not substitute for the Daily. The latter emphasizes national employment (and unemployment) rates which are useful summaries but the regional and sectoral results are what matters.

We are just oscillating around a base level. The trend really is what counts.

The trend in eastern Canada has not been as strong as in the western half.

It is useful to compare the trends in just the service sectors.

The western plots show a much stronger consistency of pattern but AB heads north and BC heads south suggesting ties to resources and investment.

The growth rates are not strong and are oscillating. Possibly the monetary policy setting is in the way.

Full-time growth is strongest in ON but very weak elsewhere. IMHO this is not a strong picture.

There can be no case made that wage growth is pushing anything. If we adjust the wage rates on a fix-weight-by-occupation basis, there is no evidence of wage growth.

Industry Employment Change

Labour markets are broadly defined by sectors within regions. The detailed charts show the differences.

Service growth is weakest in ON relative to the other larger provinces. Retail trade growth is oscillating but stronger in ON than QC. Similar charts are available for all provinces in the detailed charts.

Part-time weakness is particularly noted for females in the services sectors.

General Thoughts

Other research has shown the dominant effect of supply and import factors for consumer inflation. There is no indication of wage pressure. There are lots indications for weakness. It is not clear that monetary tightness would help the economy.

Detailed Charts

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Detailed Charts

Last month, the economic click bait was that Canada was in a technical recession. If you squinted to you see a drop in the quarterly data but only if the non-business (i.e. public government) was commingled with the business output in quarterly terms. Looking at the quarterly business measures, it was clear that there was no technical recession.

The initial chart, showing indexes of the main components of GDP, indicates that goods-production sectors have been challenged. The non-business sector has been stable after sliding down from a recent peak. In aggregate, services sectors (75 % of the economy) have been steadily growing.

Breaking up the monthly growth for recent months shows volatility with a strong return to growth in the business sector.

A tabular presentation is on page 7 of the detail. Individual growth rates are collected in a table beginning on page 102.

Looking at goods detail shows that the oil and gas sector [sector 211] has been a big contributor but manufacturing has been a drag.

Construction

Residential construction has been a general drag (bottom line) with a recent uptick. Reference to my SEPH post last Thursday would show the big challenges were in central Canada.

Manufacturing

Durables manufacturing has not been strong. A recent recovery in machinery has helped the aggregate recover.

The collapse of the paper sector pulls the long-term non-durables index down. Basic chemical manufacturing has been digging a hole (p47, NAICS 3251). The Daily highlights the ramp-up of production in refined energy products due to export demand.

Public Sector

A recent uptick in federal activity (non-defence) are really just offset earlier weakness. Defence has continued to expand.

Key Business Services

Professional services had provided strong growth but is now subsiding. But financial services continues its support. The Daily breaks out deposit and mutual fund activity

Commodity freight movement (grain and automotive) increases helped the transportation contribution. Expanded oil and gas activity, recovery from disruptions, was also important. The chart used to be enhanced by a business services aggregate that Statcan no longer publishes.

Advanced estimate

Statcan’s advance team suggests that aggregate GDP might increase by 0.1% in May supported by finance sector growth.

Detailed Data

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Monthly Industry GDP throggh 202-04

The Daily plots payroll employment as its first chart to report that average employment in April is only 0.4% higher than a year ago. It is not an exciting picture. Part-time movement has been a big issue. Combining hours with employment shows clearly the lack of progress. The eastern provinces show the recent volatility. The economy is not making progress thanks to the Trump-inspired headwinds.

The disparities reflect the sectoral sensitivities.

The investment-heavy provinces are showing a recovery but a growth pause is evident in the trends,

Comparing annual employment growth by province highlights the challenges in central Canada.

Construction

Construction is one of the big drivers of regional differences. ON is noticeably weak.

The large-province time-series show the aggregate stall. Note the downtrend in ON and the break in QC.

Services

Service-producing industries are the bed-rock of the economy. In the large provinces, growth has stalled because much of activity is government-budget dependent.

QC and ON are not doing anything great.

Finance is market driven but healthcare is tied to government planning.

Compensation

Provincial differences reflect industry mix as well as activity.

The change in industrial emphasis is seen in the compression of the wage gap between AV and the rest of Canada.

In the detailed charts, salaried compensation is shown separately from that of hourly workers. Among other factors, this reflects the impact of part-time workers (p 31,34).

Growth rates are affected by starting points and by mix effects. The next chart shows earnings by province for professional workers. Concentrated in central Canada and BC, this sector’s compensation growth reflects demand.

Detailed Data

The detailed charts reflect my specific interests and include vacancy data. Review of the detail may be useful to you. Canada’s economy has a lot of complex stories. Email size and energy limits my capacity for comment.

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P:ayroll Survey and Vacancy Data -details

The speed of price change is presumed to affect the efficiency of economic decision making. An ill-planned war does not help either. Measured on a y/y basis, the aggregate change increased from 2.8% to 3.2%, Measured over a 6month frame, the annual change was much sharper from 3.3% to 5,1%.

The big change is energy, specifically world-priced fossil fuels. The monthly chart, in the detail, shows that the big jumps occured at the start of the middle-east “adventure”.

Food Prices

As of the December 2025 observation, grocery margins had grown by 14.9% in annual price terms. Fuel costs were much higher in the Food Prices data hub but have a smaller weight.

One of the issues is whether merchants will be able to ride the inflation rhetoric to greater profits. Fertilizer price increases (world prices) suggest hard challenges in future crop years.

Supply issues are critical. Imported vegetable prices have been impacted by reduced supply triggered by Trump’s tariffs (see Daily) and by higher transportation costs.

The detailed charts show significant variability by province.

Transportation Prices

Gasoline was the dominant story on transportation costs but public transport was also impacted by fuel costs and war-related issues.

Shelter Costs

Shelter cost changes have eased from earlier peaks. Mortgage interest costs and homeowners’ replacement costs have also eased. Fossil fuel heating continues to provide regional challenges.

Easing in the national rental accommodation measure is partially driven by regional mix effects.

Basket Weight Changes

Statistics Canada has introduced changes to the basket weights. These reflect the average consumption across all households. Specific household require adjustments for household characteristics (incidence data) which is not readily available.

Recent changes in energy prices have been significant but the 2025 weight is less than 2023 and 2021. Energy commodities, priced in world terms, are not really ammenable to monetary policy intervention. The dominant role of imports in the goods side of prices also constrains policy. This has been researched in earlier substacks.

Imports in Consumption

Summary

Inflation is up but it is largely due to external influences.

Detailed Charts

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Detailed Charts

Energy and prices are moving the current data around. Unwrought gold moved out of the picture. The Daily is useful.

Although imports are up, particularly from the US, exports are also up so that we have a positive global and US balance.

Unwrought gold imports declined both due to prices and demand. The Daily mentions the higher imports (price and volume) of crude oil diluents from the US. Exports of crude canola to the US were noted as a factor in the Daily.

Volume charts provide an activity picture.

The large swing in import of metals and non-metalic mineral products (unwrought gold) is clear in the volume charts.

Nominal country charts show the swings to the US and UK.

The US remains our dominant trading partner. Because of unwrought gold, the role of the UK on exports stands out.

Production rates of autos in Canada have risen.

Commodity Stories

The detailed charts continue separate volume and price charts for individual commodities.

There is a gain in volume not just price.

We trade more than energy. Machinery export volumes have increased.

Aircraft trade has also been active.

Unwrought gold has also played a role in our recent trade picture

Country Stories

The detailed charts contain a set of commodity by country charts which tell some useful stories. These are raw charts on a customs basis.

Note the UK export movements.

Detailed Charts

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Commodity Charts

Country Charts

Full-time employment leads a charge which highlights the volatility of these survey result. Note QC, BC and AB in this aggregate chart.

Uncertainty in the industrial outlook and policy as well as an unstable source population (temporary workers and students), have led to a bouncy standstill in the aggregate outlook.

My detailed charts contain lots of employment rate examples but the source population estimate instability means that neither the employment or unemployment rates receive my focus.

Industrial Focus

The detailed charts contain industrial employment for each province. The Canada level chart provides a summary but regional issues are key.

The bounces in finance and professional services highlight the analytical issues. The downturn in retail and wholesale is one of the part-time issues to follow.

In ON, there was a large flip in the construction as well as manufacturing sectors. These are more full-time oriented

In QC, the story is similar but

It is useful to compare the non-business sectors in the our two largest provinces. In these sectors, QC is arguably weaker than ON. Broad-based headlines about economic recession are difficult to sustain in the face of such differences.

Regional issues

Comparing the trend in the larger provinces shows the big challenges in the main provinces and the energy-related growth in “alienated” AB.

The key point is that the aggregate does not tell as much as the detail. Labour markets are regionally sensitive to their industrial structure. Construction is very regional and is moving the outlook. The detailed content of the Daily is useful.

Labour Compensation

The survey nature of the LFS limits the detail that can be usefully extracted. To understand wage movements, I like to use a fix-weighted comparison to stabilize for changes in occupational composition. Because the data are not seasonally adjusted, I do a comparison to the same month in 2019. By my reading wage change is not under pressure.

Detailed Charts

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Detailed charts

The chattering class call this a technical recession when aggregate gdp-expenditure )black line) stays down for 2 quarters. Note the weak results in exports. Expenditure on inventories provides support but that really is because of misses elsewhere.

For me, services are the story both in terms of contribution and dynamics. The next chart, partitioning GDP, shows that goods production is the big drag on growth.

Politicians like to focus on goods because they can think of the spatial nature of plants and the resulting votes. However, services provide the dynamics to growth but the non-business sector really has been stalling in terms of trend.

The energy sector has provided some growth in the quarter that was erased in March. Construction remains weak (note capital formation in expenditure space). In aggregate, goods are a net drag.

Investment

A decomposition of investment shows that net drag from residential and the weak trend in private investment. Trumpian destruction and uncertainty are certainly factors.

Yesterday’s SEPH presentation shows that the major construction “damage” is in central Canada. Problems are not uniformly distributed across the country.

Sector Space

Although things are improving, the weak performance of transportation and the long-term slack in wholesale suggests goods-related challenges in the services sector. We

The slow-down in professional services affects urban activity throughout the county, Decomposing wholesale trade shows that farm and personal household goods (includes medicines) has been the main supporter,

The weakness in building material reflects the residential investment issues. The Daily comments on machinery stories including sales to government. However, the downturn in farm products is concerning.

Public Sector

The Daily comments on the extension of the local upswing in the public sector but the slow-down in the provincial grouping should not be overlooked.

Health is always the big driver. However, restraint in education may become a big theme in some p[rovinces.

The cutback in Community colleges, possibly relating to foreign students, has changed the outlook for many institutions.

Looking Ahead

The advanced estime of 0.4% growth for GDP in April is probably coloured by its focus on the goods sector.

As we move into CUSMA discussions, we must recognize the importance of not compromising a desire for stability (certainly ephemeral under Trump) with concessions which cost but don’t contribute to the general Canadian outlook.

Detailed Charts

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The GDP material contains charts on individual sectors as well as a summary growth rate table

GDP Industry Detail

GDP Expenditure material

The payroll employment aggregate has been heading down for several months. The trade engine is sputtering when measured in bodies but adding hours shows some growth. In Y/y growth terms, the aggregate is not bad if you don’t care about central Canada. The complainers in western Canada are not doing to badly.

Adding hours to the mix adjusts for part-time work. With hours, there is an upturn.

Note the broad downward trend in NB.

The detailed charts contain vacancy rates. The aggregate is flat.

Comparing over time shows that the labour market has stabilized.

Sectoral Detail - Large provinces

For the larger provinces, AB has provided the oomph to keep the ship afloat.

ON and QC are in an aggregate stall.

Construction is a key point of policy discussion. The trend in ON is not good.

Retail trade is a good bell weather for the general economic feeling.

For the larger provinces ON and QC present a weak picture. The Daily discusses the aggregate sector picture.

The Dail notes declines in Accommodation and food services. Fuel prices may limit the travel lust.

Perhaps the FIFA excitement will help.

The Daily notes that wage rates at the aggregate largely are unchanged.

Public administration has been a big mover throughout the recent period.

Note the weak QC trend. Prairie growth stands out.

Detailed Charts

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SEPH charts

A war of US choice has created a firestorm of supply effects including gas prices. Our CPI is dominated by supply issues, particularly the goods sector. As supply chains fracture, unravelling may be a story.

Transportation costs and energy (world prices) are the big movers. However, the transportation costs associated with goods are not that large but may be used to expand margins. The first chart is the traditional 12 month perspective.

Starting points matter. The monthly chart shows that the big shifts happened in March due to energy. Excluding that, the rate of price change is declining.

The Daily correctly notes the slowdown in rental price change.

Rents are one of the important spatial measures. Local rents affect consumer behaviour. Volatility is evident.

Food

Food at home is a major concern for most of us. The next chart shows the monthly change on food prices It is good that we are at the time of greater domestic production. Hence the price declines. However, research by Statistics Canada indicates the importance of retailer margins in the grocery sector. Policy intervention may be needed to keep margins from needless expansion.

Regional prices indicate competitive issues across the country.

The detailed charts contain examples of provincial differences for key products.

Shelter

Fuel prices, notably fossil, are a key issue for shelter costs. However, natural gas prices are constrained.

Property taxes and insurance costs continue to expand above the general rate of inflation. It is not clear that general monetary policy measures will manage these costs without creating other distortions.

The Daily notes the impact of the consumer carbon levy on price change. Price change will get distorted in the next few months will the temporary suspension of the federal fuel excise tax.

Clothing and Footwear

Price changes may be impacted by supply effects and by margin increases.

The volatility should noted. There may be current or anticipated supply issues because of transportation bottle necks.

Base-year Effects

The Daily has a useful discussion of the mechanics of base-year issues. The next chart shows the CPI on a 6-monthg frame.

Excluding energy, the annualized change is definitely declining.

Detailed Charts

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CPI detail charts

An unchanged aggregate hides many stories of interest. The initial chart reminds us about the disparity of growth -look at recent performance for QC and ON.

The differences are even bigger when we drill to the distinction between full- and part-time workers.

At the aggregate, the part-time action appears muted but compare ON and QC in the next chart. The big difference for ON is its sensitivity to its industrial structure (p94).

Provincial Trends

The first chart compares the trend-cycle component of the provincial measures. AB is shooting ahead whereas BC now lags the national average. The gallery shows the published aggregate series for Canada and 3 of the larger provinces.

The Canada chart in the gallery shows recent unchanged performance but does not draw attention to the previous drop. The aggregate incorporates the drops on BC and qC as examples as well as the recovery in ON.

By Age

Employment rates provide a good perspective on performance. The detailed charts contain analysis by age and gender. The regional diversity of employment change is signi ficant.

The report contains charts by gender. Central Canada, [particularly QC has issues. Core-aged workers are challenged. WIth gender, it would appear that females have more challenges in eastern Canada. Males (15-24) took a particular hit in ON (p32).

Employment rate analysis suggests larger changes for prime age workers in central Canada.

The impact of Trumpian silliness is very regional.

Summary

The regional dimension should not be understated. Wage change, appropriately adjusted for compositional effects, is not an issue as the Daily notes. The journalists have tried to highlight changes which the Daily correctly described as “little” change. The sectors and areas that are most exposed to trade and investment instabilities have issues. That is a question for detailed sectoral policies to alleviate if possible

Detailed Charts

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Monthly Detailed charts ending 2026-04

Nominal Canadian trade is sensitive to prices, particularly unwrought gold and crude oil. The initial chart shows the current price trade aggregates.

Note that exports for all countries exceeds imports. The nominal value of exports to the US substantially exceeds imports.

The next chart shows trade volumes. When price change is removed from the analysis, it can be seen that imports substantially exceed exports.

The next chart shows the monthly volume changes in exports.

The large swing in metal and non-metal exports is dominated by unwrought gold. The next nominal chart shows the large swings in exports to the UK. The Daily notes the price sensitivity.

The country data are in nominal terms so that the exports to the US are helped by the change in energy prices.

On the import side, the swings in the auto sector and metals stand out.

In country terms, the annual shifts show how trade patterns are moving.

Energy Products

The next chart shows the movements in the energy prices. There was a 26% jump in the aggregate energy price.

The corresponding volume index actually shows a fall in the weighted change of almost 10%,

The next chart shows the nominal trade value for crude oil.

The chart for natural gas (p38) shows a gain of 19% in the value of exports.

Exports of lumber continued the downward trend by -4.6% (p52)

Metal Trade

The next chart shows the price index for unwrought precious metals.

Trade volumes in this category have been volatile.

Auto Sector

In volume terms, we import more than we export.

Trade is shifting.

Detailed Charts

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Merchandise Trade by Commodity

Merchandise Trade by Country

The aggregates hide a great deal of churn. Service sector growth is slowing and goods production is essentially in a medium-term churn. The aggregates index chart shows the picture.

The next chart shows the contribution, over the last 3 months, to GDP.

Note the cycle in durable and non-durable manufacturing, wholesale, and transportation. The Daily has useful detail on the shutdowns and restarts in the motor vehicles sector. We are in a regime of significant trade restructuring (and demand adjustments in other markets) layered on top of “normal” plant adjustments. Much of this adjustment is in central Canada. The Daily attributes a significant portion of the wholesale gains to recoveries in the automotive trade (gdp-63).

The Daily shows a time series for manufacturing suggesting a roughly monotonic decline for the last several years (gdp-p42). The only point is that the near-term wiggles do not really matter to the big restructuring picture.

The longer term contribution of business services has become much more muted.

Trade Impacts

My detailed GDP charts contain lots of sectoral details. I will highlight several to show the issues. Alumina and Aluminum production took a major hit since 2024.

Wood products is another challenged sector.

There are lots of sectors with specific regional challenges. Oil and Gas extraction has continued to climb. The Daily should be consulted for detail.

Regional Employment

The next two charts show indexes of weekly hours. This concept incorporates the influence of part-time workers in the aggregate. The major point (which I repeat too often) is that growth and challenges are not evenly distributed across the country and that resources are challenged in the current trade-war world.

BC has come off its peak and energy investment is helping growth in SK and AB.

The large province industrial aggregate shows the lagging performance in the big markets.

The challenges in the residential construction sector are see in the medium term employment decline in ON which is only partially offset by gains in QC.

The time-series chart shows the relative size of the large provinces.

This bar chart summarizes the recent growth across the country.

Central Canada is challenged.

Detailed Charts

AI is not used. All ideas and charts are the responsibility of Paul Jacobson.

GDP Charts

Payroll Employment Charts