LEEF Brands (CSE: LEEF | OTCQB: LEEEF)

TL:DR Leef is sitting around 19 cent US and has a market cap of 58m. The stock has been very good for me, but I think there is much more room to grow. This is a long article, but there are a lot of moving parts. Essentially, these guys were making cannabis concentrates in California. It is the most well-developed market in the country with the slimmest margins. They realized that they needed to control the entire process and they went out and bought a 1900-acre farm, got the permits and started growing. They were buying material around $25 a pound and now they are growing it for about $8. This had a massive impact on margins and is what I predict will move them to the top of this sector. So, this quarter is one where demand outstripped supply and they had to buy more expensive product. You can see the impact on the margins, but it is important to understand that they were fixing the supply problem at the same time. To me this quarter proves the point and next quarter we should return permanently to fully their own supply. Also, the numbers below are off, there was a 10:1 reverse right around the time I bought. My cost basis is around 6.5 cents.

If you only read the press release, you’d see a quarter with revenue down 16%, gross margin down from 49% to 33%, and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $631,000. You’d probably call it a bad quarter. The stock traded down almost 10% on the day of the release.

If you listened to the earnings call, you saw something different. You saw a CFO put a specific number on the value of controlled inputs. You saw a CEO put a specific number on his cost advantage over the entire rest of the industry. And you saw both of them, along with their head of investor relations, sketch out a picture of the US cannabis industry that isn’t just “LEEF might participate in interstate commerce someday.” It’s “the largest MSOs in the country are actively planning to stop producing and start buying, on a timeline they’re telling us themselves.”

I own this stock. I asked three questions on the call. I want to write down what I actually think is going on here, because I think the story is bigger than my prior write-ups captured.

The Q2 Scoreboard

The numbers first, so we’re all working from the same base:

Revenue was down. Adjusted EBITDA was negative. Net loss is still a net loss. Those are honest facts and I’m not going to spin them.

Against the same quarter a year ago, which was also a between-harvest quarter and a period when LEEF was buying third-party biomass because the ranch wasn’t yet producing, gross margin nearly doubled, gross profit grew 62% on 16% lower revenue, and adjusted EBITDA loss shrank by half. First-half adjusted EBITDA was positive $1.7 million versus negative $2.1 million a year ago, a $3.8 million favorable swing across the half.

That’s the year-over-year comparison. The quarter-over-quarter comparison is where the story lives.

The Natural Experiment: 17 Points

Kevin Wilson, LEEF’s CFO, said something on the call I want you to read carefully:

“From Q3 of last year through Q1 of this year, we ran this business on our own input material from Salisbury Canyon Ranch, and gross margins climbed from around 20% to 50%. In Q2, we didn’t have SCR material. Last year’s harvest was used up, and this year’s crop was still in the ground. As a result, we ran purchased biomass inputs instead and gross margin came in at 33%. That’s not a bad quarter, but it puts a number on what vertical integration is worth to this business. Running and selling our own material puts margins closer to 50%.”

Read that a second time. In three consecutive quarters where the ranch supplied biomass, gross margin ran approximately 50%. In this quarter, when the ranch was between harvests and LEEF had to buy third-party biomass, gross margin ran 33%. Same facility. Same team. Same customers. Same product categories. The only material change is whose biomass flowed through the machines. That’s about as close to a controlled experiment as you get in a real operating business.

Seventeen points of gross margin is the disclosed value of vertical integration on the throughput it supports. That is a specific, quantified, on-the-record data point from the CFO, not an analyst projection.

If the story ended there, I’d have written the article I originally drafted this morning. But the story doesn’t end there, because on the same call, Micah put a much bigger number on the table.

The Bigger Number: 7x

Here’s the passage from the call that I keep coming back to. Micah, on what he’s hearing from multi-state operators he’s met with recently:

“Just some of the bigger companies, they look at it and they say, our cost to produce distillate on average across all of these different markets and countries that we’re in are, call it, $3.50. We’re sub-$0.50 currently where we’re sitting today.”

Sub-fifty cents per gram. Versus a stated multi-state operator average of about $3.50 per gram. That is a seven times cost advantage, disclosed directly by the CEO based on his own conversations with MSO leadership. And Micah said on the same call that he expects LEEF’s cost to keep coming down as the ranch scales and the new processing facility contributes efficiencies.

Now put this next to Micah’s illustrative pricing walk:

“Distillate may sell for approximately $3.50 per gram in New York, $8 in New Jersey and as much as $12 in Ohio… At our current cost structure, selling distillate for $2 a gram would generate a gross margin of approximately 75%.”

He isn’t underwriting the current out-of-state prices staying at $3.50 or $8 or $12. He’s saying: even if interstate commerce compresses those prices meaningfully, even down to $2 a gram (well below what New York currently pays), LEEF at its current cost structure produces a 75% gross margin on that sale.

This is a fundamentally different kind of business than “cannabis company that grew its own margins.” This is “the lowest-cost producer of a commodity input in a market where the price of that input is currently 7x higher than what it costs them to make.” The economics of that setup are not subtle if the interstate rails open. They are almost embarrassing.

Why the MSOs Are Preparing to Buy, Not Produce

If you’re an investor and Micah told you “we cost seven times less than the big competitors,” a reasonable question is: so what? Cost differences exist in every industry. What makes this actionable?

The answer is on the call, and it’s what changed my understanding of the thesis most. From Jesse Redmond, LEEF’s Chief Strategy and IR Officer, on the industry unlock:

“What we’re hearing from some of the larger MSOs is that they never had to grow a gram of flower, extract a gram of concentrates, they’d be really happy people because they could then do what they do best, which is build really powerful brands and serve customers through the retail distribution platforms.”

Read the incentive from the MSO side. If you’re a large multi-state operator with a cost basis of $3.50 a gram to produce distillate, and interstate commerce opens up, and there’s a supplier out there who can hand you the same distillate at a fraction of that cost, at CAT-4 medical-grade quality, the rational business decision is to buy from them and reallocate your capital to brand and retail, which is where MSOs actually create differentiated value anyway. Cultivation and extraction, from the MSO perspective, are capital-intensive, margin-thin, operationally difficult activities that don’t earn brand equity.

Micah described the substance of these conversations directly:

“They realize that it makes more sense for us to basically shut off a lot of this infrastructure that we have because there’s no way that they’re going to be able to compete with it, or be able to survive as the market starts to open up.”

And on timeline, from Micah, based on the MSO consensus he heard at Benzinga and in follow-up meetings:

“Everyone’s pretty confident that this is going to happen sooner than later. And when I say that, like it’s definitely no one knows… 6 months to 2 years is kind of the time frame in which everyone’s on.”

Six to twenty-four months. That’s not LEEF’s timeline. That’s the MSO industry consensus, as reported back to LEEF by the operators themselves.

If that framing holds, even directionally, the shape of the opportunity changes. LEEF isn’t just a cannabis stock that might benefit from interstate policy. LEEF is potentially the low-cost supply layer of a US cannabis industry that is quietly restructuring itself around specialization: MSOs become brand and retail companies, upstream producers like LEEF become the supply infrastructure. And LEEF is the one already sitting on 122 acres of clean, permitted, CAT-4-passing cultivation with an extraction platform running at ~50% capacity that can absorb far more throughput without meaningful new capital investment.

The Processing Facility Is a Procurement Weapon

The $5.2 million preferred financing that LEEF closed in July for a dedicated drying, curing, freezing, and storage facility read on paper like a housekeeping capex item. It supports the ranch, roughly doubles the biomass they can retain from each harvest, and might generate some third-party service revenue.

On the call, Micah reframed it in a way I did not expect:

“This facility is going to become a procurement tool for us. There’s other… it’s a huge unmet need because the way that cannabis was originally set up in California, the regulators didn’t have ag in mind. They had small-scale cannabis. And now that we are getting away from that… we’re able to go to other cultivators that have these large fields that don’t have processing facilities and get really, really discounted rates on material beyond what we currently grow for ourselves.”

Consider the leverage this creates. Every large California cannabis cultivator harvests once or twice a year and immediately faces the same problem: fresh biomass has a limited shelf life at its highest value. Without adequate drying, curing, and cold-storage infrastructure, cultivators are forced to either process everything immediately or accept quality degradation on inventory. That gives them limited negotiating leverage on price.

LEEF, with a dedicated processing facility sized for 180-plus acres, becomes the natural home for other people’s biomass. They can go to a struggling cultivator and offer to take material at a deep discount to what LEEF’s own biomass costs to produce, because the alternative for that cultivator is worse. In other words, the processing facility isn’t just a cost-side efficiency for LEEF’s own biomass. It’s a mechanism for extending LEEF’s low-cost supply position by procuring even cheaper biomass from partners who have no better option.

The July press release language on this facility is also worth quoting:

“The facility is expected to provide the capacity needed to support Salisbury Canyon Ranch today, accommodate the Company’s planned expansion to its fully permitted 180-acre cultivation footprint, and provide additional capacity when LEEF expands cultivation to serve future interstate commerce and international export markets.”

They didn’t buy this facility for current volume. They bought it sized for the interstate scenario. That is a real capital-allocation signal.

What They Actually Did This Quarter

Everything above is what the strategic case looks like. The concrete actions this quarter, and what changed from the prior draft’s version of the story:

Salisbury Canyon Ranch expanded to approximately 80 acres, up from 65 last year, with 21 more acres targeted for fall planting, bringing 2026 canopy closer to 100 acres. The full 180-acre permit remains on track for 2027, and Micah confirmed on the call that all the infrastructure capex to reach 180 acres has already been invested. There is no additional capex requirement to hit the full footprint.

A 21-acre farming partnership was executed and is already producing. This isn’t a future agreement. The spring crop was already harvested at the partner location, and the 21 acres have been replanted for a fall harvest. That’s the first live proof point that the internal cost-structure model extends to contracted supply, and it’s what gets total 2026 internal-plus-contracted footprint to approximately 122 acres, an 88% increase from a year ago.

Extraction throughput can scale roughly 30% with essentially no additional capital. Micah walked through specific numbers on the call: current run rate is 60,000 pounds a month through the ethanol line, 35,000 through hydrocarbon, and 20,000 through solvent. He said they can push ethanol to 80,000–85,000 pounds a month with, in his words, “really none at all” in additional capex. That means the extraction platform has meaningful slack ahead of any scale-up in biomass supply, which matters because it de-risks the “what happens when interstate opens” scenario.

Hydrocarbon products became the largest revenue category for the first time. These are higher-value concentrates than ethanol distillate, with better prices and margins. This mix shift is a real contributor to the 33% margin holding up as well as it did in a quarter with no ranch biomass. And Micah noted on the call that this year, unlike last year, LEEF is freezing material for both the hydrocarbon and solvent lines, meaning the margin recovery in Q3 and Q4 should show up on multiple lines, not just ethanol.

The new harvest passed CAT-4 pesticide screens, which Micah described as the hardest pesticide-screening standard in the world, and tested at approximately 95% THC and 99% total cannabinoids. Better than last year’s harvest, according to management. This matters for the international export thesis, where destination markets like Germany and Australia have strict quality standards that CAT-4-passing material is already positioned to meet.

Himalaya contributed approximately $1 million in revenue in its first partial quarter, and management framed it as the first step in a broader branded-products strategy. Micah said on the call that he expects opportunities to acquire additional brands over the next several years, brands he described as unable to survive without attaching themselves to a supply chain like LEEF’s.

Chris Crouch joined as CRO from a leadership role at Turn, a major US vape company, with prior CPG experience at Urbn Leaf, Volcom, Pac Sun, and Quiksilver. Hirsh Jain of Ananda Strategy was engaged as strategic advisor on rescheduling, interstate, and international policy. DEA registration applications were filed across California and Nevada licenses, with Shane Pennington at Blank Rome guiding the process.

None of this reads as a management team hedging. This reads as a management team allocating capital and talent as if the timeline they’re hearing from MSOs is real.

What I’m Not Going to Ignore

If Q1 made the bull case obvious, Q2 is the quarter that tests whether I’m still willing to name the risks honestly. This is a small-cap cannabis stock. The upside scenarios I’ve walked through are meaningful and, in my view, well-supported. They are also not guaranteed. Here are the honest risks:

Revenue was down 16%. Kevin explained that some of this was deliberate. LEEF chose not to overbuy third-party biomass at thin margins during Q2, taking the volume hit rather than chasing revenue. That’s a defensible operating decision, but it needs to reverse in Q3. If Q3 revenue doesn’t recover as ranch material flows through the extraction lines, the “deliberate choice” narrative loses credibility.

Dilution is real. Weighted average shares outstanding grew from 175 million to 290 million year-over-year, a 66% increase. Add the $5.2 million July raise (issued as Series A-2 preferred at $0.25 conversion), and 2026 total gross proceeds now sit at approximately $14.5 million. The capital is going to productive uses (the ranch expansion, the processing facility, harvest inventory), but the per-share economics have to be modeled against a materially larger share count than a year ago.

Adjusted EBITDA was negative for the quarter. Positive for the half. If Q3 doesn’t show the ranch material driving the margin recovery Kevin outlined, the half-year positive-EBITDA status becomes harder to defend for the full year.

The uncertain tax positions liability grew from $15.2 million to $22.8 million on the balance sheet. This is the 280E federal tax burden accruing until rescheduling changes the rules for adult-use. The bull case assumes rescheduling ultimately resolves or reduces this exposure, but as of today it is a real number that continues to grow.

Interstate and international are not operational today. The pathway language exists in the rescheduling order. The MSO conversations are real. The DEA filings are real. But actual cross-border commerce, whether across US state lines or international, does not yet exist. Timing could slip. Micah’s “6 months to 2 years” MSO consensus is a directional signal, not a schedule.

Micah’s disclosed 7x cost delta is his characterization. I have no way to independently verify MSO cost structures. If actual MSO distillate production costs are meaningfully lower than $3.50 per gram, the cost delta narrows, though even a 3x or 4x delta would still be large. LEEF’s own sub-$0.50-per-gram number is more auditable, but should still be treated as management’s disclosure rather than an independently confirmed fact.

None of these change the shape of the thesis. They shape how you size the position and what has to be true for the next twelve months to justify it.

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What I Heard on the Call

I asked three questions on the call last Thursday. The company was kind enough to take them. What follows is what I heard, in the order I asked.

On MSO conversations. I asked what LEEF is hearing from the multi-state operators, and where LEEF might fit into their supply chains if interstate opens. Micah described a handful of active conversations with major MSOs, with more follow-ups underway. The recurring theme he described was economic. MSOs were comparing their $3.50-per-gram distillate cost against LEEF’s sub-$0.50 and reaching a rational conclusion that they can’t compete on cost. Multiple MSOs also asked whether LEEF could become a flower supplier in addition to concentrates, which management said isn’t in the current plan but isn’t foreclosed. Jesse added the specialization framing: MSOs get to do what they do best (brand and retail), LEEF does what it does best (grow and extract), and the whole industry unlocks value. On international, Jesse said they’re methodically identifying target markets and preparing to meet destination-specific GMP standards, with a working goal of serving those markets in 2027.

On the trajectory of gross margins. I asked how investors should think about margin recovery through H2 2026 and into 2027 as ranch biomass returns. Micah pointed back to last year as the closest analog: Q3 was where margins picked up as new-harvest material started flowing, and he expects “identical” dynamics this year. He targeted a ~50% margin range on the ethanol line as own-material returns. And in the new detail I hadn’t seen elsewhere, he said margins should improve on the hydrocarbon and solvent lines as well, because this year LEEF froze material for those lines that they didn’t have available last year. That means the Q3/Q4 margin recovery isn’t just an ethanol story; it’s a three-line story.

On the 180-acre footprint and going beyond. I asked how the scale-up to 180 acres in 2027 changes production capacity, cost structure, and market-serving ability, and whether LEEF can go past 180. On capacity, Micah gave the specific run-rate numbers: 60,000 pounds a month currently through ethanol, 35,000 through hydrocarbon, 20,000 through solvent, with room to push ethanol to 80,000–85,000 pounds a month and comparable increases across the other lines, all with essentially zero incremental capex. On going past 180, the short answer was yes. The full ranch is 1,900 acres. LEEF is exploring a conditional use permit process to add up to 100 more acres and evaluating expansion in other counties as well. The 21-acre farming partnership is the first live example of that off-ranch expansion.

Those answers didn’t just confirm the thesis I walked into the call with. They filled in specific numbers where I had ranges, and they added the “multi-line margin recovery in Q3/Q4” detail that I don’t think has been broadly appreciated yet.

How I’m Reading This

Four years ago, Micah told his team that relying on third-party biomass wasn’t a durable model. So he built a farm. Q1 2026 demonstrated the upside of that decision. Q2 2026 quantified the cost of not having that decision available. In seventeen points of gross margin, that’s what vertical integration is worth to the business. In seven times, that’s what a decade of building the right kind of platform is worth versus the industry that didn’t.

If Q3 shows sequential margin recovery back into the high-40s or 50s as ranch material flows through the extraction lines, with additional recovery on the hydrocarbon and solvent lines from the newly frozen material, then the natural experiment is confirmed a second time, the CFO’s model holds, and every strategic action LEEF is taking this year starts to look less like a management wish list and more like a coordinated pre-positioning for a US cannabis industry that is quietly restructuring itself around specialization on a timeline the MSOs themselves are guiding.

If it doesn’t, we’ll know soon enough. That’s what earnings quarters are for.

I own it. I asked my questions. I’m holding.

⚠️ Disclosure

I own a personal position in LEEF Brands (CSE: LEEF | OTCQB: LEEEF), held in my personal investment account. This article reflects my own analysis of publicly available information (the company’s Q2 2026 earnings release and conference call, prior earnings materials, and public disclosures), plus my own participation as an analyst on the earnings call.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Small-cap cannabis stocks are high-risk, speculative investments. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own due diligence.

I don’t love mining, but I love multibaggers.

Let’s play a game.

South Pacific Metals has four projects in Papua New Guinea. Forget three of them. Forget Osena, the one making headlines right now, where two rigs are turning at the Ontenu prospect and pulling gold hits like 12 m at 6 g/t I this (with a meter of 18.1 g/t inside it), including a first-hole discovery at the new Megabe target. There is 2 meters at 26 g/t as well. Forget Anga, sitting 1.5 km from K92 Mining’s processing plant with soil anomalies up to 1,080 ppb gold. Forget May River, next door to PanAust’s Frieda River, one of the largest undeveloped copper-gold projects on the planet, with historic drilling of 19 m at 11.47% copper. And 2 g/t gold over same section, drill hole is at surface

Pretend the company is just Kili Teke. One project. What do you actually own?

You own a copper-gold system that someone else spent US$20 million and roughly 36,000 meters of drilling to prove up: a defined NI 43-101 resource of 4.2 million gold-equivalent ounces. You picked it up for about a million dollars in cash. And for years, you could not do a single thing with it, because it had no active social license, and in Papua New Guinea a resource without community consent is not a discounted asset. It is a locked one.

Then you spent three years, and made a bet, getting that consent back

This is the story of why that bet just paid off. And it is worth understanding whether or not you ever buy the stock.

What Harmony built, and walked away from

Most junior explorers start with a blank map and a theory. The hard, expensive part, proving there is something in the ground at all, is what investors usually fund up front. Kili Teke is the rare case where the bill was already paid. Market cap?

Harmony Gold, a real South African producer, spent roughly US$20 million here about a decade ago. The work: some 36,000 meters of diamond drilling, geophysics, geochemistry, and an independent NI 43-101 Inferred Resource of 237 million tonnes at 0.24 g/t gold and 0.34% copper, holding about 1.81 million ounces of gold, 802,000 tonnes of copper and 40,000 tonnes of molybdenum. The company expresses that as roughly 4.2 million gold-equivalent ounces (or, flipped to a copper lens, 3.14 billion pounds copper-equivalent).

Then, in 2017, the drills stopped. Harmony’s stated priority was its flagship, the much larger Wafi-Golpu project. But the public record shows the ground at Kili Teke had gotten harder in another way too: in 2016, landowner clans from the license area took Harmony to PNG’s National Court, seeking to have the agreements it had signed declared defective and unlawful, arguing that the landowner association Harmony dealt with did not represent them. Whatever the full mix of reasons, the outcome was the same. One of the more advanced undeveloped copper-gold systems in PNG went quiet. The camp emptied. The data went in a drawer, and the community relationships went dormant with it.

The gamble: a social license is the whole game in PNG

Here is the thing outsiders underrate about mining in Papua New Guinea: the geology is spectacular, and the social license is the hard part. Land is held by customary landowners, not the state. A permit from the capital means little if the people who live on the ground do not want you there. . In PNG, community consent is the thing the whole project stands or falls on.

So when South Pacific acquired Kili Teke from Harmony in 2023, the bet was not really about the geology. Harmony had already de-risked that. The bet was that this team could do the genuinely hard thing: take a dormant project whose community relationships had frayed into litigation and rebuild the consent to operate. That is the gamble. And they made it the slow, unglamorous way, spending about three years on it before turning a new shovel of dirt.

That meant landowner mapping, a formal Warden’s Hearing to renew the exploration license (completed March 2025), and community awareness meetings in Tari through April and May 2026. The payoff: documented support from the landowners, the Hela Provincial Government, the Koroba-Kopiago District and the local-level government, and, in June 2026, exploration formally back on the ground with the company running a dedicated community relations team.

That is the bet paying off. Not a drill result. A permission slip, of the only kind that actually matters here. It is what turns 4.2 million ounces from “look, but can’t touch” into “cleared to go prove up.”

How cheap the entry was

Harmony spent over US$20 million on this ground. South Pacific took 100% control for US$1 million in cash, half on closing and half on regulatory approval.

But “cheap” deserves the full structure, because Harmony did not just dump it. They kept skin in the game. There are two contingent milestone payments, US$3 million and US$4 million, payable only if the project keeps advancing, and a 1.5% net smelter royalty if Kili Teke ever reaches production. Harmony also holds a total of 1,125,725 warrants of SPMC. Each warrant is exercisable into a share at an exercise price of $2.80 until September 14, 2026. These warrants will expire out of the money in 56 days unless, of course, SPMC’s share price increases over 3.5 times

Read that the way a poker player would. Harmony folded the hand for their own reasons, but they kept a stake in the pot. That is not the shape of a deal where the seller thinks the ground is worthless.

What you are actually paying per ounce

Now let’s put a number on our thought experiment. Keep pretending Kili Teke is the whole company.

South Pacific’s entire market value, all four projects, is about US$35.6 million (per market data as at mid-July 2026). Ascribe all of it to Kili Teke’s 4.2 million gold-equivalent ounces and you are paying about $8.50 per gold-equivalent ounce. On the 1.81 million ounces of actual gold, it is about $20 an ounce.

Here is why the thought experiment is useful rather than a trick: giving Kili Teke the entire $35.6 million is generous. There is an active, expanding discovery at Ontenu driving much of that value, plus Anga and May River. Strip those out and the price you are implicitly paying for Kili Teke’s ounces is lower than $8.50. That is the honest version of “cheap”: even at the generous ceiling, these are inexpensive ounces in the ground.

Three honesty notes, because they cut against the bull case and you should see them:

• The stock is not completely being ignored. It has re-rated hard this year, roughly doubling off its spring lows. So this is not “the market is asleep on the whole company.” The re-rating so far has been powered by drilling at Ontenu. Kili Teke’s maiden drill program is the next leg, and it has not happened yet, which is the part of the story that is not yet in the price.

• “Gold-equivalent” flatters the cheapness. Roughly half of that 4.2 Moz AuEq is copper wearing a gold costume (the equivalence assumes equal recoveries at $3,300 gold and $4.45 copper). The sterner number is the gold-only one, about $20/oz. Use whichever you like; just never let anyone quietly quote the AuEq figure as though it were all gold. If anything, the $3,300 gold price behind the equivalence now sits below spot, so the assumption is conservative rather than inflated. {Actual Gold prices are $4077 at the writing with copper sitting at $6.49}

• Confirm the live market cap the day you read this. The ~$35.6 million is a mid-July snapshot; micro-caps move, exchange rates move, and the fully diluted count is already 93.3 million shares against 69.1 million outstanding.

Why the ounces might be worth more than that

The 4.2-million-ounce resource sits on one part of the Kili Teke system and covers only the top 400 meters of it. Harmony’s model is trimmed at 400 m below surface, so every deeper intercept is excluded, and the vast majority of historical drilling went into that one Central Porphyry. The company has run the historical database through machine-learning targeting and ranked 14 targets, six of them top priority. The rest of the system is barely tested:

• Beneath the resource. The deeper holes point toward the hot centre, not away from it. Hole KTDD025 cut diorite assaying 1.27% Cu and 0.55 g/t Au at 716 metres down, and copper-to-sulphur ratios increase with depth, approaching the ratios seen at Grasberg, which geologists read as copper saturation rising toward an untested core. That deep target, the company’s “KT Deeps,” sits more than 1,000 m below surface and has never been drilled.

• The Ieru Porphyry target (west). Previous trenching returned 27 m at 0.97% Cu and 1.25 g/t Au within 132 m at 0.55% Cu and 0.6 g/t Au. North-south striking porphyry dyke targets with a strong gold-tellurium-copper association, awaiting a drill.

• The skarns (adjoining the resource, and excluded from it). Four skarn bodies mapped at surface over a combined 26,250 square metres. Historical drilling hit 7.8 m at 12.98% Cu and 11.75 g/t Au within 54 m at 2.1% Cu, 1.82 g/t Au and 3.87 g/t Ag from 878 m downhole, and 57 surface rock chips average 1.7% Cu with a peak of 27.5% Cu, 3.4 g/t Au and 37.6 g/t Ag. Because the skarns are strongly magnetic, ground magnetics can point almost straight at the next hole.

• The Ridge Gold Area (east), the one I’d watch. A different animal from the copper porphyry: a “Porgera-style” alkalic gold target with soil values running up to 9.39 g/t gold and a strong gold-tellurium-arsenic fingerprint. The company draws the Porgera analogy explicitly, and on more than vibes: the same Au-Te-As metal association, the same east-west and northeast-southwest structural orientations, the same host alkali intrusions, 40 km along strike from a >30-million-ounce mine (with the >2-million-ounce Mt Kare deposit sitting between them). It has never been properly drill-tested.

The maiden drill program is guided for H2 2026, and it goes after exactly this shallow, high-grade gold: Ridge Gold, Ieru and the margin skarns, rather than opening on the expensive deep porphyry. In a year when gold is the metal the market wants, testing the near-surface ounces first is both the cheaper and the more marketable move.

A necessary caution on the Porgera comparison, because it is the kind of line that gets abused: Kili Teke is not “the next Porgera,” and geological similarity is not an economic deposit. Plenty of ground with the right signature never becomes a mine. What is true and sourced is narrower and still interesting: the same alkalic style, the same pathfinder geochemistry, the same belt, and a drill that has never tested it.

The people, briefly

This matters because the whole piece leans on the idea that this is a serious operator, not a promotion. The executive chairman, Michael Murphy, founded Torex Gold, now a $4B+ market-cap producer. Director Alex Davidson spent 40 years building Barrick’s exploration arm as EVP of Exploration and is a 2023 Canadian Mining Hall of Fame inductee. CEO Timo Jauristo has 40+ years in the industry with time at Goldcorp and Placer Dome. On the ground, the exploration manager has three decades of porphyry and epithermal experience across the circum-Pacific including PNG roles with Barrick and Xstrata, and the field team is PNG-based with, in the company’s words, multiple years of experience on these same exploration licenses. That last detail is worth sitting with: when a project changes hands, the institutional memory of a site usually walks out the door. Here, much of it stayed.

Where it stands right now

The groundwork is done and the ground game has started. Crews are on the property running the deliberately cheap first phase: verification mapping, close-spaced soil sampling across the Ridge Gold structures, and ground magnetics to confirm drill targeting on the near-surface skarns, all ahead of the maiden drill program guided for H2 2026. The project is accessible and 100% owned, and the company is financed through year-end with the work program funded. The next real catalyst is that maiden drill program, and, as always with an explorer, a catalyst to watch is not a result you can count on.

Now the part that matters most: the risks

If you take nothing else from this, take this section.

This is an early-stage, high-risk, speculative exploration company. What that means for Kili Teke:

• The resource is Inferred, the lowest-confidence category there is. As the company’s own materials state, mineral resources that are not mineral reserves do not have demonstrated economic viability.

• Everything outside that resource is conceptual. KT Deeps, the skarns, Ieru, the Ridge Gold Area: there has been insufficient exploration to define resources on any of them, and it is uncertain whether further work ever will. Eye-catching rock-chip and trench numbers are selected high-grade historical results, not the grade of a deposit.

• A cheap price per ounce is an argument, not a guarantee. My valuation view is exactly that, my opinion, and it may be wrong. The market can keep any discount as long as it likes, the discount exists for real reasons, and “underpriced” can stay underpriced, or turn out to be correctly priced if the drilling disappoints.

Exploration is a business where most projects never become mines. That is not a knock on this one. It is the base rate for the whole industry, and it should frame everything above.

The one-sentence version

Someone else already spent US$20 million de-risking the geology, a serious operator kept an equity-and-royalty stake on the way out, and even if you pretend Kili Teke is the entire company you are paying only about $8.50 per gold-equivalent ounce for a resource that was effectively untouchable until this year, when a three-year bet on community consent finally paid off and cleared the way to drill the shallow gold. Whether those ounces are worth more is what the drilling, the last step of a deliberately slow program, is meant to answer.

That is the reason I am watching it. It is not a reason to bet money you cannot afford to lose.

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Disclosure

I am long South Pacific.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. I am not a registered investment adviser. Small- and micro-cap exploration stocks are high-risk and speculative, and you can lose your entire investment. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. The valuation views are my own opinion and may be wrong. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed professional. Figures are drawn from the company’s public filings, news releases and July 2026 investor presentation (including the NI 43-101 technical report effective November 18, 2022) and public market data as at July 2026; gold-equivalent figures assume equal recoveries of gold and copper at $3,300/oz gold and $4.45/lb copper. Refer to the company’s profile on SEDAR+ for underlying assumptions and full risk disclosures. A related party to me previously had a contract with South Pacific Metals in 2025.

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South Pacific Metals, the plain-English version · TSX-V: SPMC | OTCQB: SPMEF

TWO WAYS TO READ THIS

Door #1: you’re in it. The short, plain-English version. No jargon, five minutes.

Door #2: the meat and potatoes. Every drill number, zone by zone, the copper, the geology, and a proper mining primer. → Technical Deep Dive for Mining Junkies

Quick gut check first. Are you a growth investor who wants more than 20% a year? If not, this one isn’t for you, no shame in it. If yes, one rule for every stock you own: ask how big is the prize, and how good is the chance? Big prize times real odds. That’s the whole game. Here’s mine.

The setup, in three sentences

South Pacific Metals is a tiny explorer, about a US$26 million company, whose flagship ground wraps around two sides of K92 Mining’s Kainantu gold mine in Papua New Guinea. K92 is worth about US$4 billion. Same gold belt, same rocks, opposite sides of a property line.

What just happened, the exciting part

Two things happened in ten days. Start with the drill hole, because that’s the one that gets me excited.

At its Ontenu project, SPMC drilled a single hole, 26-09, and hit gold in three separate zones on the way down. The standout: a slice running over 27 grams of gold per tonne (about 28 once you add the copper and silver). For scale, plenty of perfectly profitable gold mines run on just a couple of grams of gold, and K92’s entire mine next door averages about 6.6 grams (a shade under 9 once you count its silver and copper). One drill slice is not a mine, but a number like that is exactly why people lean in. A different one of the three zones spanned more than 12 metres, and the veins carry copper and silver alongside the gold, which nudges the “gold-equivalent” grade a little higher still.

Here’s the part that matters more than any single number. That hole hit the same vein an earlier hole, 26-07, had found about 75 metres away. A monster grade in one hole can be luck; the same vein turning up again, along strike, is how you start proving a structure is real and continuous, the line between “nice intercept” and “we might have something.” The CEO’s read mixes excitement and restraint: South Pacific, he says, “may be on the edge of something significant at Megabe,” while noting the story has evolved fast and the team is still learning from every hole. There are at least eight known veins along a five-kilometre stretch of this ground, and only three have ever felt a drill bit.

The second piece of news is quieter but bigger in scale: SPMC reopened Kili Teke, a separate copper-gold project that already holds a defined 4.2-million-ounce gold-equivalent resource, with three of its four target areas barely drilled. So, one project looks like a high-grade discovery catching fire, and the other is a big resource with a lot of untested room.

If some of that flew by, here’s the two-minute grounding on what “proving a structure” means and why sitting next to K92 matters so much. (Already fluent in drill results? Door #2 has the raw numbers, zone by zone.)

The life of a mine, and why the crowd shows up late

There’s a famous picture in mining called the Lassonde Curve, named after financier Pierre Lassonde. It maps how a mining company’s value tends to travel across its whole life:

It runs in stages. In exploration, the company is just looking: cheap, quiet, mostly ignored, and where most companies live and die. When a drill finally hits, that’s discovery: speculation rushes in and the price spikes to its first peak. Then the long, boring middle: feasibility, permitting, financing, construction. That’s years of spending money and pouring no gold. The speculators drift off, and the price sags into what the industry calls the orphan period. Finally, the mine gets built, pours first gold, and the big institutions arrive, re-rating to a second, bigger peak, until the ore runs out (reserve depletion).

The lesson: the biggest gains go to people who are early (before the discovery peak, or in the neglected valley) and turn out to be right. That’s the honest case for the “being ignored is valuable” idea up top.

The other half, because it usually gets left out: that tidy curve is drawn for the companies that make it. Many more drill their ground, find nothing that pays, and slide quietly off the left edge. Early-stage means the highest potential and the highest chance of zero. South Pacific sits at the far left. Ontenu is exploration / early discovery: real high-grade hits, but no defined resource yet. That’s the risk and the point, in one.

How they find a resource, they poke holes

You can’t see a gold vein; it’s buried hundreds of metres down. So, geologists gather surface clues first (high-assay rock chips, soil chemistry, geophysical surveys, careful mapping) to work out where a vein probably sits and which way it runs. Then they drill. A drill hole pulls up a continuous cylinder of stone, the drill core, which is split, logged, and sent to a lab. Picture pushing a thin straw through a layer cake: you only learn about the rock the straw actually touched. One hole is a clue, not an answer.

One hole that hits mineralisation is a discovery. To turn a point into a deposit, you step out: drill more holes along the way the vein runs (along strike) and down the way it tilts (down dip), tracing how far and how continuously the gold carries. That’s the “step-out” from the news a moment ago: 26-07 and 26-09 hitting the same vein 75 metres apart. Now you can see why that detail matters more than the headline grade. Two points on one line is how “an interesting result” starts becoming “a mapped structure.”

Why fences don’t matter

Here’s the idea that trips up newcomers most. On a map, SPMC’s ground and K92’s mine are separate properties with a line between them. But geology doesn’t read maps. The system that put the gold there formed millions of years ago; the boundary was drawn by people a century ago. A vein can run straight across it, like a tree’s roots that don’t stop at your fence, or an underground river crossing three properties that never signed an agreement with it.

Next door, K92 mines the Kora deposit: sub-vertical gold-copper-silver veins, an 8.6 g/t gold-equivalent reserve, highly continuous over more than a kilometre of strike and depth, and still open. SPMC’s hole 26-09 just hit gold-copper veins of the same style on its side of the fence: same belt, same rock, same metals. If those structures run toward, or across, the boundary, SPMC could be drilling the extension of the same plumbing.

“Could be” is doing real work in that sentence, and I won’t dress it up. Sitting next to a great mine and hitting the same style of rock raises the odds that something meaningful is there. It doesn’t prove it. Grade in a few holes is not a reserve, and as SPMC’s own filings put it, mineralisation on a neighbouring property is not necessarily indicative of what’s on yours. The analogy is a reason to look closely, not a conclusion to bank.

Why I care, and why you should be careful

This is my largest mining position and I’ve held it for years, which makes me about as biased as a person can be, so run the odds yourself rather than borrowing mine. The short honest version: South Pacific is valued near US$26 million while its neighbour is worth 4 billion because K92 proved its mine over a decade and South Pacific hasn’t proven anything yet. That’s the whole trade: the biggest upside and the biggest risk are welded together, and you’re being paid to take one for the other.

That’s the short version. Want the actual numbers, every zone, every grade, the copper, the geology, and a real mining primer? Go through Door #2 click here

Disclosure

I own a long position in South Pacific Metals, this is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor and investing is risky. Do your own due diligence.

When people look at a plastic recycling company, they almost always ask the same first question. How much oil does it make. And that is a fair question. It is just not the question that decides whether the economics work.

The question that decides the economics is quieter. It is this. What do you have to do to that oil after you make it.

Today I want to walk through the economics and the differentiation of Aduro Clean Technologies, using the company’s own framing from a recent Watertower Research presentation by CEO Ofer Vicus. And I want to show you why one step that Aduro is designed around may matter more than any yield number on the headline.

Two jobs, one waste stream

Let me set the table, because the category matters.

There are two broad ways to recycle plastic. Mechanical recycling takes the clean, sorted, well-behaved plastic and melts it back into pellets. It is cheap and it works, and it should always go first. The problem is that most of the world’s plastic is not clean, sorted, or well behaved. It is mixed, it is dirty, it has layers and dyes and additives. Mechanical recycling cannot do much with that.

That leftover pile is the job for chemical recycling. You break the plastic back down to a molecular level and rebuild it into something useful. Think of it as a division of labor. Mechanical handles the easy stuff. Chemical handles the hard stuff. Aduro plays in the hard stuff.

And inside chemical recycling, this is the part people miss. Not all chemical recycling is the same process. The most common route is pyrolysis. Aduro uses something different. So the comparison I am about to make is a category distinction, not a scoreboard.

The pyrolysis reference point

Let me describe the conventional pyrolysis route fairly, because it is the reference point for everything that follows.

Pyrolysis heats plastic without oxygen until it breaks down into an oil. Real industrial pyrolysis is good at making oil. Techno-economic studies put the liquid yield somewhere in the range of seventy-two to eighty-one percent on a feed basis. So far so good.

Here is the catch. That oil is heavy, and only a fraction of it, often around forty percent, falls into the naphtha range that a steam cracker actually wants. The rest needs work. And before a cracker will take pyrolysis oil at all, it usually has to be cleaned up through a process called hydrotreatment. That means adding hydrogen, under pressure, with a catalyst, in what is effectively a second plant bolted onto the first.

That second step is not free. In a November 2025 interview, Aduro’s Chief Revenue Officer Eric Appelman put the hydrotreatment cost in the range of four hundred to five hundred dollars per ton. And a peer-reviewed 2026 paper by Selting and colleagues, published in Materials Circular Economy, modeled per-ton hydrotreatment costs that ranged from roughly four hundred sixty dollars in Texas to over twelve hundred dollars in Germany, depending on where you build.

So hold that thought. The oil is the easy part. The bill comes from what you have to do to the oil afterward.

The between chemistry

Now here is where Aduro is different.

Aduro’s platform is called Hydrochemolytic Technology, or HCT. The company’s own tagline is the between chemistry, and that phrase is doing real work. HCT sits between the high-heat world of pyrolysis and gasification on one side, and it leans on water instead. It runs at lower temperature, in a water based environment, using a simple catalyst and what the CEO calls hydrogen donors, things like glycerol or ethanol.

The point of all that is not the chemistry for its own sake. The point is the product. HCT is designed to produce a lighter, naphtha range oil. A circular naphtha that is meant to be ready to mix back in with virgin feedstock and head toward new plastic, with less of that expensive hydrogenation step, or in the CEO’s framing, without needing it.

So look at what just happened. Pyrolysis makes oil and then pays to upgrade it. Aduro is designed to make the upgraded oil in the first place. Same starting garbage. Different finish line. If that holds at industrial scale, and that is the thing the Chemelot plant is being built to prove, then the step that Aduro designed around is the most expensive step in the conventional route.

That is the whole differentiation in one sentence. It is not that Aduro makes a little more oil. It is that Aduro is designed to skip the part where everyone else spends the money.

What flows from skipping the step

When you design around that step, the economics cascade. Let me walk the dominoes.

First, operating cost. No hydrogen plant and no hydrotreatment burden means you are not carrying that four hundred to twelve hundred dollar per ton expense, and you are not building the second factory that creates it.

Second, the margin. In that Watertower presentation, the CEO described gross margins of around fifty percent for the chemical recycling application. I want to be honest about the sourcing on that one. That is management’s characterization in the presentation. It is not a figure I am calculating, and it is not a number published in the corporate deck. So treat it as the company’s framing, and do your own work on it.

Third, scale. This one is genuinely different. Conventional pyrolysis tends to need very large single sites, often one hundred to two hundred thousand tons a year, to make the math work. Aduro’s design is modular. The first of a kind industrial plant planned for Chemelot in the Netherlands is sized at one thousand kilograms per hour, with an initial capacity around eight thousand tons per year and room to scale toward sixteen to twenty thousand. And if a customer needs more capacity, the plan is to add more units rather than build one giant plant. The CEO’s phrase is that they scale up, not scale down. You grow by copy and paste, not by betting the company on one enormous build.

Fourth, contamination tolerance. Because the system is configurable and runs in that water based window, the company says it can handle higher contamination than the routes it is aware of. That opens the door to dedicated, defined feedstocks like synthetic turf or agricultural plastic waste, which is exactly where the Chemelot plant is designed to start before moving to harder post consumer waste.

So, the differentiation is not a single hero number. It is a chain. Skip the hydrogen step, and lower Opex, healthier margins, smaller economic scale, and messier acceptable feedstock all fall out of the same design choice.

The rules are moving toward the product

Here is the part that ties economics to timing.

Europe is tightening the rules on circular content. Under what is broadly called Extended Producer Responsibility, the direction of travel is that plastic products in Europe will need to contain a certain amount of circular material. Aduro names EPR readiness directly in its own site selection criteria, so this is not me reading tea leaves, it is in the company’s documents.

Now connect that to the product. The CEO’s argument is that pyrolysis routes tend to send more of their output toward fuels, gasoline and diesel, which does not count toward circular content the way a recycled feedstock does. HCT is designed to put more material back into the circular stream. So if the mandates keep pushing toward circular content, a process that produces more circular material is, in the CEO’s framing, better positioned to meet the rule.

I would put it this way. You do not want to be the company scrambling to fit a rule. You want to be the company the rule was quietly written toward. That is the position management is arguing for here. Whether the timing and the rules land the way they expect is the open question, and it is worth watching rather than assuming.

The petroleum extension

One more, because it shows how the platform stretches.

Aduro also has a petroleum vertical, and the way the CEO describes it is almost funny in how simple it sounds. Paraffinic crude, he says, is basically liquid plastic. It is long, heavy hydrocarbon, just like melted plastic, except it arrives already liquid at around fifty degrees. So the company does not need the front half of its system, the extruders and the melting, and because the feed is so uniform, the reactor design gets simpler too.

In other words, the petroleum application is being framed as an extension of the same platform, not a separate science project. That is the kind of capital light optionality that, if it works, lets one core technology earn in more than one market. I am flagging it as optionality, not as a sure thing, because it is earlier than the plastics work.

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So let me bring it back to where we started.

The headline question is how much oil. The real economic question is what you have to do to the oil afterward. The conventional pyrolysis route makes oil and then pays, sometimes a lot, to upgrade it. Aduro’s HCT is designed to deliver the upgraded oil in the first place. And from that one design choice, you get the margin story, the modular scale story, the contamination story, and the regulatory fit story.

None of this is proven at commercial scale yet. That is what the Chemelot plant is being built to demonstrate, and that is the milestone I am watching. So please, do not take management’s framing or mine as the final word. Read the corporate presentation. Read the Selting paper. Watch the plant.

Sources:

WaterTower Research Podcast link

Selting, B., Carratta, G., Hemmelder, A., & Leker, J. (2026). "Towards Sustainable Plastics Management: Value Chain Assessment of Pyrolysis Oil Integration in the Petrochemical Industry." Materials Circular Economy, 8:23. DOI: 10.1007/s42824-026-00229-5. Published March 27, 2026, University of Münster / Helmholtz Institute.

The paper itself is paywalled, but the supplementary material is freely downloadable, and that's where the cost tables live. From Supplementary Tables 25–26, total hydrotreatment cost per ton of hydrotreated pyrolysis oil (OPEX plus depreciation, base year 2024):

Texas (US): ~$460/ton
Guangdong (China): ~$1,060/ton
Germany (EU): ~$1,274/ton

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I am a shareholder of Aduro Clean Technologies. This is not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence. Investing is risky, consult a professional.

South Pacific Hits!

(US: SPMEF | CAD: SPMC)

I don’t have to tell you that I only invest where I think I can have a multi-bagger. So please pay attention when I tell you my only mining investment just hit a winning hole. South Pacific Metals, the first drill hole into the brand-new Megabe target at Ontenu NE, returned 12 m at 3.1 g/t gold from 185 m, including a 1 m hit of 18.1 g/t gold, with 84 g/t silver and copper running up to 1,462 ppm through the zone. Megabe is the corridor between Jorkol and Onki, transected by Otitapa Creek, the same creek the local artisanal miners have been pulling alluvial gold out of for years, which is usually nature’s way of telling you there’s a hard-rock source uphill.

Here’s why I’m leaning in. This isn’t a one-hole story anymore, it’s a corridor story. Onki already gave up a 9.92 g/t gold peak with 2.35% copper, the pathfinder chemistry (the bismuth-telluride signature at Jorkol) reads like the upper levels of an intact epithermal system, and the company is reading a silica cap that says the productive part may still be sitting untested at depth. Gold has now shown up in 7 of 8 holes at Ontenu NE, with two more (Jorkol and a second Megabe hole) pending assay and Ontenu Central, the ~400 m porphyry target, being readied for its first ~600 m test. This is still early-stage, high-risk exploration: true widths are preliminary at roughly 30% of downhole length, and a lot of the corridor is still assays-pending. But for a $24m company that most of the market still isn’t watching, sitting beside a 4-billion-dollar mining operation, the drill core is finally starting to tell the story the geology promised.

Two Releases from Rocket Doctor in a week, one loud and one quiet.

(US: AIRDF | CAD: AIDR)

First, the loud one. Rocket Doctor AI is going racing. The company is partnering with Rick Ware Racing, bringing its brand across the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, NHRA, Supercross and Flat Track. A physician-built health platform sponsoring a race team is not a pairing most people had on their bingo card, which is exactly what makes it work as a brand play. It is memorable, it is broad, and it puts the name somewhere health-tech companies almost never show up.

Now the quiet one, which is quietly the better deal for your share count. Rocket Doctor’s U.S. subsidiary Treatment.com just had its second year of NIH funding confirmed, from the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities, for an AI family medical history tool it is building with Rush River Research. Year 2 brings in more than US$250,000, pushing total program support past US$500,000, and the whole thing lives inside a competitive grant worth approximately US$2 million in total, now running through May 31, 2027. Here is why a sleepy government grant deserves a minute of your attention: this is non-dilutive money. The government funds the research, and not a single new share gets printed to do it. Treatment also cleared its first-year milestones, leveled up its Global Library of Medicine, and is about to begin pilot testing with acknowledged subject matter experts and identified communities. This update is disseminated by Rocket Doctor AI.

Aduro Clean Tech

(Nasdaq: ADUR | TSX: ACT)

You know I can’t put something out without mentioning Aduro. Instead of stealing his work, I would like to point you to Yazan Homsi’s substack where he did a fabulous job putting the pieces together on the economics of Aduro. Read the substack and give him a follow, he has been the source of some of my best picks.

Yazan Homsi Substack

LibertyStream continues to perform

(TSXV: LIB | US: VLTLF)

They signed a long-term supply offtake agreement with “a leading American industrial partner”. All we really need to know is that it is for 600 tonnes of lithium carbonate per year and also that lithium prices are going through the roof again and have almost tripled since last year. Below is their recent news, so you can get an idea of how fast they are moving.

• March 12, started DLE system installation at its Texas site, targeting early Q2 lithium output.

• March 31, won shareholder backing for its “Texas move,” speeding up the U.S. lithium build-out.

• April 9 , started Texas lithium carbonate output and secured its first U.S. sale. The product is coming off a DLE unit and refining facility at Select Water Solutions’ (NYSE: WTTR) site in Howard County, Texas, north of Midland

• April 13, added a veteran energy banker to the board and approved new equity incentives.

• May 6, announced a “Gen 6” extraction platform, folding 21 months of field and pilot data into a configuration aimed at faster cycle times, less operating variability, better reliability, and on-site lithium carbonate production supporting technical- and battery-grade applications.

I have gotten quite a few emails about these two, so yes, I am still holding both $CISO and $MDNA. The share prices on both are in the gutter, right now.

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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice, and I am not an investment advisor. This information is provided for education and entertainment only. Investing is risky. If I am writing about a stock, I personally own it. 45 Degrees Inc. is a related party to me, and you should know that 45 Degrees has a paid marketing agreement with Rocket Doctor AI. Under that agreement, 45 Degrees received an initial fee of US$180,000 and 400,000 stock options exercisable at CAD$0.45 for a six-month term, plus advertising payments of US$25,000 per month for January to March 2026 and US$17,000 for May 2026. The engagement has since been extended through September 2026 at no additional cost.

That is the news, and you can read a version of it on any wire or aggregator within the hour, so I am not going to spend this piece re-reporting it. What follows is my opinion as a shareholder, and it is the part you cannot get just anywhere: why that 86 percent is worth far more than it sounds on the surface, and why I think Aduro is a genuine standout in this industry. The short version is that the number everyone quotes isn’t the one that matters. Once you see why, the rest gets a lot more interesting.

It ran as a system

If you remember one thing from all of this, do not make it the 86 percent. The whole plant ran as one integrated, continuous, self-correcting system, and that is the milestone that separates a promising chemistry from a business. Making a reaction work in a beaker is one problem, and Aduro solved that one years ago. The chemistry was never really the open question. The real question now is the harder one. Can feed handling, reaction, and product recovery all run together, continuously, staying stable hour after hour, without falling over? In the release, CEO Ofer Vicus framed the campaign as the plant performing as intended, generating the operating, yield, and product-quality data the company needs to set its scale-up parameters.

Think of the difference between a recipe that works once in your kitchen and the same recipe running in a commercial kitchen all day, every plate identical. The second one is the harder problem, and it is the one that feeds a business. Thirty-five hours of stable, continuous, integrated operation is the number I would circle.

(Below is my video covering the news if you prefer, but it doesn’t cover the comparison)

The stress test

My favorite detail is that the team did not simply let the plant hum along and call it a win. They deliberately disturbed it, and it recovered steady state in about two hours. That tells you the process is not fragile. It is not a house of cards that only holds when every variable is perfect. For anyone thinking about scaling this toward a commercial plant, that kind of robustness is exactly what you want to see.

The scale-up held

R2 was Aduro’s earlier continuous-flow reactor, at a smaller throughput. The NGP pilot plant is the step up, bigger, more integrated, closer to a real plant. The question that decides everything at this stage is whether results hold when you scale up, because that is exactly where promising technologies quietly die. Per the release, Aduro ran chemical analysis on the NGP product and compared it against earlier batch testing and R2 at smaller throughput, and product quality came out consistent with that prior work. The company moved to a bigger, more complex plant and the quality held. That is the opposite of the usual scale-up story, and de-risking scale-up is the entire game right now.

So that is the exciting part. Now the machinery.

Start with what pyrolysis actually delivers

To see why Aduro’s 86 percent is worth more than 86 percent, you have to start with what pyrolysis, the incumbent approach, actually delivers, not the best case anyone imagines for it.

Pyrolysis liquid yields are genuinely high. Industrial data for polyolefins puts oil yields at about 72 to 81 percent, so the problem was never how much liquid pyrolysis produces. The problem is what that liquid is. Liquid is not the same as naphtha a cracker will take to make new plastic. In techno-economic studies of mixed polyolefin pyrolysis, the naphtha fraction is closer to 40 percent, with roughly a third of the output as heavier wax that needs to be further broken down and a slice of light gas that typically gets burned in the plant for process heat.

The oil that remains is the bigger issue. Pyrolysis breaks plastic down thermally through random scission at high temperatures, yielding a broad mixture that tends to be heavy in aromatics or olefins and to carry contaminants such as chlorine, nitrogen, and metals from the waste stream. Steam crackers have strict limits on exactly those things, because olefins promote coking and fouling, and chlorine is corrosive. So the oil generally has to be upgraded, most often by hydrotreatment, before a cracker will accept it. In one peer-reviewed steam-cracking study, hydrotreatment had to cut the olefin content from around 51 percent down to about 8 percent before the oil performed well. That upgrading is a real cost, real complexity, and more lost mass.

And there is a last twist that critics and investigative reporting have pressed hard on. Because the upgraded oil is usually blended into a much larger stream of fossil naphtha, the recycled material that physically ends up in the new plastic can be small, with mass-balance accounting doing the work of assigning the recycled claim. Industry disputes how that should be framed, but the underlying point is hard to argue with: a pyrolysis plant can report a large liquid yield and still deliver a much smaller slice of genuinely cracker-ready, new-plastic-bound material.

Now the unicorn

Now grant pyrolysis a unicorn. Imagine a pyrolysis plant that somehow matched Aduro and hit 86 percent liquid yield. It still would not be the same plant, because that liquid would have to clear the same gauntlet, the naphtha-versus-wax split, the hydrotreating, the contaminant removal, the fuel-versus-plastic question. The headline would match. The usable, new-plastic-bound output would not.

Why Aduro’s 86 percent is worth more than 86 percent

Here is the contrast that matters. Aduro reported that about 85 percent of its liquid fell at C20 and below, the cracker feedstock range. Combine that with the 86 percent liquid yield and roughly 73 percent of the original polypropylene lands in that cracker-ready range. Set that next to a representative pyrolysis naphtha fraction nearer 40 percent and the gap is plain, similar liquid yields, very different amounts of the material a cracker actually wants for new plastic. I am not going to reduce that to a single multiplier, because pyrolysis varies a lot by process and conditions, but the direction is not subtle. That is what better than 86 percent means. The same headline number, carrying a much larger share of usable, low-olefin, fungible, new-plastic-bound product. And as the rules below show, new-plastic-bound is the only kind that counts.

One number to keep honest while we are here: that 85 percent is 85 percent of the liquid, not of the plastic. The roughly 73 percent figure is the two combined. Worth saying plainly, because it is easy to round up by accident.

The chemistry that makes it cracker-ready

Why does Aduro’s product come out so much closer to cracker-ready? Because the process is a different category, not just a different score. Hydrochemolytic technology is water-based and runs at relatively low temperature, and a core design goal, evaluated during Aduro’s Shell GameChanger work, is suppressing olefin formation in the first place. Olefins are exactly what force much of the upgrading burden onto pyrolysis oil. Suppress them at the source and you avoid much of the hydrotreating that pyrolysis cannot. Aduro has a phrase for this. They call it the chemistry in between, and this campaign is really just data backing up what they have been saying all along. The pitch is not that they make more liquid. It is that they make a cleaner, more consistent liquid that is closer to cracker-ready as it comes out.

Fungibility

That word, fungibility, is not one I am inventing. A fungible product is interchangeable, one unit substitutes cleanly for another, the way a barrel of one suitable crude can stand in for another at a refinery. Aduro describes its output as a fungible hydrocarbon product, feedstock for circular production of plastics. To me it just means sellable. To picture what that means, it helps to see where a barrel of HCT product actually goes.

**A note before this chart: this is R2, not the NGP campaign.** I am including it because it is the clearest picture of how Hydrochemolytic technology splits a feedstock into products. But every number in it comes from Aduro’s earlier R2 continuous-flow work, not the June pilot plant campaign this article is about. Read it as a map of how the process works, not as a restatement of the new results.

*Source: Aduro, typical product recovery for HCT applied on recycled polypropylene, from the earlier R2 continuous-flow stage. Shown to illustrate the product slate, not the NGP results. One metric to keep straight: the 95 percent in the center is fungible products, meaning the liquids plus the valuable light gases, the C2 to C4 slice, and hydrogen. That is a more descriptive measure than the NGP campaign’s 86 percent liquid hydrocarbon. The roughly 5 percent that was not fungible is the char, carbon dioxide, and methane.*

The shape is the point. Most of the output lands in useful ranges, with very little going to char, carbon dioxide, and methane.

Green credits

Here is where the chemistry turns into money. From January 2030, the EU’s Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation requires plastic packaging to contain a minimum post-consumer recycled content, starting at 10 to 35 percent and rising toward 65 percent by 2040, and only genuine post-consumer recyclate counts. For contact-sensitive plastics other than PET, chemical recycling is currently the only proven path to that recycled content. Chemical recycling is credited through mass balance, and here is the part that matters most. The EU has adopted a fuel- excluded approach, meaning material that ends up as fuel or for energy recovery does not count as recycled content. Only material that goes back into new plastic does.

Sit with what that means next to everything above. The prize is not making oil. The prize is making material that re-enters plastic production and can therefore claim recycled-content value under a mandate that is about to bind. A contaminated oil that needs heavy upgrading and often ends up blended toward fuel sits on the wrong side of that line. A clean, low-olefin, cracker-ready, fungible feedstock that drops back into polymer production sits on the right. It is also, neatly, the answer to the recycling critique. The thing critics say pyrolysis lacks, genuinely new-plastic-bound material, is exactly what these rules reward. A fair caution: mass balance accounting is contested, and exactly how the fuel-use-excluded rule lands across all of PPWR is still being worked out, so treat this as the direction of travel rather than a settled credit you can bank today.

Why bigger players should pay attention

Now you can see why that C20 detail matters. A product in the cracker feedstock range does not ask the world to build a brand-new parallel system to absorb it. It is designed to slot into the petrochemical infrastructure that already runs today, and under the coming rules, the version of it that re-enters the plastics market is the one that carries regulatory value. So, picture who reads a release like this closely. The people who operate crackers, the people who need a reliable and consistent feedstock, the people who fund first-of-a-kind plants. For that audience, the signal is not the 86 percent. The signal is continuous, steady-state, and integrated, with product quality maintained through scale-up. That is the kind of data that moves a conversation from interesting to serious. I am not putting a number on what that is worth, and I am not predicting anyone does anything. I am describing the kind of validation this is, and who tends to care.

What I am watching next

The company’s stated near-term focus is moving from the 24/4 model toward sustained 24/7 operation, then running mixed feedstocks, polypropylene and polyethylene together, because real-world waste is never one clean plastic. That mixed-feedstock data is the milestone I am watching most closely. All of it feeds the design basis for Aduro’s planned first-of-a-kind plant, and it lands at a meaningful moment. Just days earlier, on June 3, Aduro named Jan Lemmens to lead FOAK project delivery at Chemelot. This is not data going into a drawer. It is data flowing into the plant the company is now preparing to engineer and build.

The chemistry was never really the question. Whether Aduro could run it as a real, continuous, scalable process was. This campaign is a strong answer.

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The chart, and this part is my read, not advice

Everything above is the why. This part is the where, and I want to be honest that it changes gears. The fundamentals above are sourced fact. What follows is my read of the chart, which is opinion and technical analysis, not a prediction and not financial advice. On June 1st, Aduro hit a new all-time high of $18.19, the prior all-time high had been $17.66. It then pulled back as is typical, but was also hit by the broader market’s sell off. The NGP news pushed it up again to $17.91 before the market wobbled again. This up and down movement has us solidifying this zone. Today was the highest dollar amount ever traded by Aduro. $1.623 million shares and 26.5m dollars worth.

Here is what I see. ADUR spent months building a base and has been pushing up off it, and on this news, it broke out with real volume behind it. On my Fibonacci extension the levels I am watching sit around $26 and then $36 if the move has the legs to carry that far. I am not telling you it gets there. The chart can roll over, or chop sideways, or do something none of us expects. Fibonacci levels are not magic. They are just where I watch for the next decision. But I will say plainly that I am excited about the possibility, and the reason I am excited is everything in the first two thirds of this article. A chart only matters if the story underneath it is real, and this story just got more real. The following chart was created by Gneary on May 26th and posted by The Long Investor; the current movement has no impact on the Fibs other than a bit of confirmation.

Sources

Aduro Clean Technologies

- Aduro Clean Technologies - Aduro Reports NGP Pilot Plant Campaign Results, Achieving 86% Liquid Hydrocarbon Yield

- Shell GameChanger program graduation, December 2025 (olefin suppression and liquid hydrocarbon selectivity)

- March 2026 Corporate Presentation (R1, R2, NGP, FOAK scaling ladder; the R2 product-recovery chart)

Pyrolysis yields, product quality, and upgrading

- Industrial pyrolysis oil yields, 72 to 81 percent (review, 2024): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165237024001347

- Naphtha, wax, and gas split for mixed-polyolefin pyrolysis (techno-economic, 2022): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652622051162

- Pyrolysis oil composition and steam-cracker specifications, Kusenberg et al., Waste Management (2022): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0956053X2200040X

- Hydrotreatment and steam-cracking of pyrolysis oil, olefins cut from about 51 to 8 percent (2025): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165237025000038

- Upgrading requirements for cracker-compatible pyrolysis oil, Waste Management (2025): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0956053X25006981

- Plastic waste contaminants and steam cracking, AIChE: https://www.aiche.org/conferences/videos/conference-presentations/plastic-waste-contaminants-deal-breaker-steam-cracking

- Pyrolysis waxes, fuel gas, and aromatics, C&EN (2022): https://cen.acs.org/environment/recycling/Amid-controversy-industry-goes-plastics-pyrolysis/100/i36

- Critical view on real recycled content and mass balance, CT Mirror (2024): https://ctmirror.org/2024/06/26/plastic-recycling-pyrolysis/

EU PPWR and chemical-recycling credit

- PPWR recycled content targets, TOMRA: https://www.tomra.com/about-tomra/circular-economy/ppwr-eu-packaging-regulation

- PPWR post-consumer recyclate and mass balance: https://www.getsunhat.com/blog/ppwr-recycled-content-targets-pcr-requirements

- EU fuel-use-excluded approach for chemically recycled content, S&P Global (February 2026): https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/chemicals/020926-eu-approves-targets-for-chemical-recycling-content-for-plastic-bottles

Disclosure: I am a shareholder of Aduro Clean Technologies (Nasdaq: ADUR / TSX: ACT) and have held shares since the IPO. This article is for educational and informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Every factual claim above traces to the public sources listed. Always do your own due diligence.

The US hasn’t shown up in the financials yet.

Over the past two to three years, Rocket Doctor AI has been building out payer infrastructure across California, New York, and Maryland, credentialing physicians, getting in-network with Medicaid, Medicare, and national brands like United, Aetna, Blue Cross, and Humana. That work has resulted in approximately 21 million in-network covered lives in the US. Almost none of it has shown up in reported revenue (yet). Q1 2026 results are expected within weeks, and that’s where US revenue recognition should start becoming visible for the first time.

I sat down with CEO Dr. Essam Hamza for a full interview covering the 2025 results, the US expansion, the company’s AI-powered platform, and competitive positioning. Here’s what stood out.

The Canadian proof of concept is strong. The digital health platform and marketplace has now powered over 750,000 patient visits with over 350 physicians. On any given day in Canada, 40 to 45% of the patients seen on the platform are returning patients. That’s not a convenience medicine number, that’s a chronic care relationship. Rocket Doctor goes after what Dr. Hamza calls “orphan patients”, people with complex conditions like diabetes and heart disease who’ve historically struggled to access consistent care. These patients need multiple visits, follow-ups, blood work reviews, and specialist referrals. When Rocket Doctor catches them early, it keeps them out of the emergency room, a ~$100 platform visit versus over ~$1,000 in the ER. That’s exactly why payers keep coming on board.

The US revenue opportunity is materially larger per visit. Each patient visit generates $18 to $25 USD in the US, compared to $7 to $8 in Canada. So, the expansion isn’t just about more patients, it’s about meaningfully higher revenue per visit on top of a larger addressable population. Dr. Hamza noted the company is already seeing 500 to 600+ patients per day in Canada. Scale that model into a US market with bigger per-patient economics and 21 million eligible lives, and the math gets interesting quickly.

The platform is more than virtual appointments. This is something I think a lot of investors miss. Rocket Doctor AI isn’t a telehealth company in the way most people use that term. The physicians are the customers, they pay Rocket Doctor to use the platform. What they get is a turnkey practice: credentialing handled, payer contracts in place, patient marketplace built in, plus a suite of AI tools including an AI nurse for triage, an AI scribe that takes notes during visits, and ClinBot, a clinical guidance tool that helps doctors stay on top of differential diagnoses, lab orders, and current guidelines. Dr. Hamza walked through a vision of what the full patient journey could look like, from an AI nurse triaging a worried parent on a Sunday night, to a doctor visit the next day with real-time AI support, to automated follow-up calls checking on how the kid is doing on antibiotics. It’s a full-cycle system, not a one-off video call.

The moat isn’t software… it’s infrastructure. There’s a reason Dr. Hamza brought up the idea of “some kid in their basement with Claude” being able to replicate a software product overnight. His point is that Rocket Doctor’s defensibility isn’t just the technology. It’s the two to three years of credentialing, payer negotiations, and physician network-building that had to happen before a single US patient could be seen in-network. No amount of funding shortcuts that timeline. The software tools sit on top of that foundation, they make the platform better, but the marketplace and payer relationships are what make it defensible.

The valuation gap is hard to ignore. Open Evidence recently raised at approximately a $2 billion valuation. Hippocratic AI is at roughly $3.5 billion. Rocket Doctor AI’s market cap sits at approximately $50 million CAD. Dr. Hamza was careful to note these are different models, Open Evidence is a physician reference tool, not a care delivery platform, but the gap is striking for a company already generating revenue with margins in the mid-to-high 80s. He’s hoping some of these competitors IPO in the second half of the year, which he believes would bring more investor attention to the healthcare AI space broadly.

One more thing we covered: hantavirus. Dr. Hamza is a family doctor by training, and he’s been following pandemic cycles since before SARS. His current assessment is measured, the strain can transmit human to human, but cases so far trace back to the original exposure group. The incubation period is long, potentially up to eight weeks, which means we’re still within the second generation of cases. He thinks the next couple of weeks will be telling in terms of whether this escalates or gets contained. His advice: don’t panic, stay vigilant. What’s relevant from an investment standpoint is that Rocket Doctor’s fully virtual infrastructure means it’s operationally ready if governments open up virtual care coverage the way they did during COVID. It’s not something the company leads with, but it’s a real capability sitting in the background.

The full interview runs about 45 minutes and covers all of this in detail, including a slide presentation walking through the platform, the US coverage map, and the company’s growth trajectory. I’ll also have more soon on why I think calling Rocket Doctor a “telehealth company” fundamentally misunderstands the business, that piece is coming shortly.

⚠️ DISCLOSURE: This article is disseminated by Rocket Doctor AI.
45 Degrees Inc., a related party to me, has a paid advertising relationship with Rocket Doctor AI. I have a material position in Rocket Doctor AI. This post is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Investing is risky and you could lose all or part of your capital. Always do your own due diligence.

Before you read another word, here is my bias

Aduro Clean Technologies is my largest personal investment. Ever. Bigger than anything I have held before, by a wide margin.

I met Ofer Vicus, the CEO, before the company went public. Sat across from him for a long, in-depth Q&A on the technology back when it was nowhere near where it is today. I knew a lot less about plastic recycling and hydrocarbon chemistry then than I do now. What I walked away from that meeting with was not conviction in chemistry. It was faith in one man’s determination and principles.

I learned the officers of Aduro had structured their own equity to success. They voluntarily gave up their shares and would only earn them back, milestone by milestone, as the company de-risked. Year after year, they have hit those milestones, unlocked value for investors, and have earned back that equity. And not one of them has sold a single share. Plus they keep buying.

That tells you something about what they think this is.

For context… I trade stocks. I look for disruptive technologies. Last year, my average peak gain across my published picks was 232%. The year before, it cleared the low 300% range. I do not buy fancy cars. I do not build fancy homes. I find more winners. And I keep buying more Aduro.

This is going to be my most bullish article on Aduro to date. I am telling you that upfront so you can filter every claim that follows.

I am not telling you what to do. Investing is always risky. But this is my highest-conviction stock, and I believe that in 10 years, Aduro shareholders will be sitting on a position that has gone up by many multiples. I have said this over and over. I am saying it again.

Now let me show you why.

Plastics is the iceberg

When it comes to plastic recycling, we are going to need several technologies. Not one winner. Several.

Plastic is a growing problem, and the chemistry of waste plastic is wildly varied. Clean monomer streams. Contaminated streams. Multilayer films. Mixed polymer bales. Residue-laden flexibles. No single technology handles all of that economically. Anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something.

Here is how I think about the recycling landscape.

The niche solutions are the tip of the iceberg. They handle one specific plastic very well. Bottle-to-bottle PET. Certain polyolefin streams. Controlled-input pellet recyclers. They work. They scale within their niche. Past that niche, they don’t.

Pyrolysis sits in the middle. It handles a lot of plastic. But the chemistry is essentially blindfolded. Heat breaks the long chain at random spots. The output is a chaotic soup. Some chains end up at five carbons. Some are at fifty. Some carbons get capped with hydrogen. Some are left dangling and reactive. The product needs expensive hydrotreatment before any steam cracker will accept it. It works, but the output is crude, and the economics suffer for it.

Aduro’s technology goes well below the waterline. Hydrochemolytic chemistry does not hack at the chains randomly. It selectively breaks the carbon-to-carbon bond and donates a hydrogen atom in the same step, capping the broken end immediately. The result is stable. The result is a high-quality oil, naphtha-grade for polyolefins like PE and PP, (plus styrene monomer recovery from PS). All of it cracker-ready. No hydrotreatment required Meaning at least a saving of $400 to $600 per ton recycled in operating expenses and a significant Capex reduction as Hydrotreatment requires a massive Capex to be built. The

What matters to me as an investor is that Aduro can handle what the rest cannot. Multilayer plastics. Contaminated plastics. The messy, real-world streams that niche solutions reject and that pyrolysis can take but process into low-value outputs. Aduro’s chemistry was designed for the actual plastic waste problem, not the cherry-picked clean stream.

And the business model is just as important to me as the chemistry.

Aduro’s commercial model is modular and scalable. The same plant architecture can be sized to meet a customer’s needs and deployed across different geographies. The company plans mainly to expand through licensing partnerships, not by continually raising capital and building everything itself. Which means future growth does not come from the backs of existing shareholders. That single structural choice materially changes the dilution math over the next decade.

That alone would be a thesis I could believe in.

But that is just plastics.

The platform

Aduro’s chemistry is not a plastics-only chemistry. It is a molecular toolkit that applies to multiple long-chain hydrocarbon problems across multiple industries.

The same reaction pathway has now been validated on:

• Plastic — long polymer chains, broken to naphtha-grade output. The HPU vertical, roughly $121B TAM by 2030.

• Bitumen — Heavy oils (like in Alberta, Venezuela, Russia and Kazakhstan) long aromatic and asphaltenic structures, upgraded for handling and transport. The HBU vertical.

• Paraffinic crude — long, straight-chain hydrocarbons. NEW. Bench-scale validated April 23rd, 2026. Continuation-in-part patent filed with the USPTO.

• Renewable oils — the TCD vertical, on the roadmap.

Plus an extension into BTX chemicals from waste and renewables, a roughly $275B global market by 2027.

The newest vertical is what I want to spend the rest of this article on. Because if it pans out, it could be larger in absolute scale than plastics.

A short detour into chemistry

If you have watched the interview I did with the team at Aduro’s London, Ontario facility, you already know the basics. Plastic is a long chain of carbons holding hands. Thousands of carbons. All single-bonded. Stable, but stuck.

Paraffinic crude is the same molecular shape. Just shorter.

Long, straight chains of single-bonded carbons. Twenty or thirty per chain. Long enough that the stuff behaves more like wax than like oil. Pour point around 105 to 120 degrees Fahrenheit. The Uinta Basin in Utah is the textbook example, producing roughly 185,000 barrels a day in 2025.

From a chemical point of view, paraffinic crude is a simpler version of the same problem that HCT was built to solve. The bonds are already single. The chain is already straight. HCT cuts fewer of them, donates hydrogen at the cut points, and lets the result flow.

Same trick. Shorter chain. Same stable, flowable output.

What this could unlock globally

This is the part I want every reader to sit with.

Twenty to thirty-three percent of the world’s oil supply is paraffinic. That is between 16 and 27 million barrels a day.

Almost no one is fully accessing that supply on equal economic footing with light crude. They can’t. Every barrel of paraffinic crude has to be moved with heat. Insulated railcars. Heated storage tanks. Steam-coiled offloading equipment. Specialized refineries are close enough to take the feedstock without choking on it. The crude itself does not change price at the wellhead, but every dollar spent getting it from there to a buyer adds up to a structural penalty that lighter crude simply does not pay.

That penalty does three things. They all matter.

It shrinks the buyer pool. If the only refineries that can handle your wax are within heated-rail or trucking distance, your basis differential to global pricing widens. Operators take a discount on what would otherwise be excellent oil. Uinta Basin is the textbook case. High-quality crude by chemistry. Market access constrained by physics.

It strands marginal acreage. Wells that would underwrite at light-crude transport costs fail to underwrite at paraffinic transport costs. The resource is there. The economics are not. Some of it never gets developed. Some of it just sits in the ground waiting for a better answer.

It limits the global market. Paraffin-rich streams across Africa, Asia, and the former Soviet Union face the same physics. Same transport tax. Same buyer-pool problem. Same suppressed development. This is not a Utah problem. It is a global problem hiding inside a global resource.

So, when I say 20 to 33 percent of the world’s oil supply is “locked up”... I mean it.

Not shut in geologically. Structurally penalized in a way that suppresses development, narrows markets, and discounts the product. A vast global oil pool exists, has buyers in principle, and currently does not compete on equal economic footing with conventional light crude.

If HCT can upgrade paraffinic crude at or near the wellhead so it flows through unheated infrastructure, the impact is not transporting costs.

It is access.

You unlock buyers. You tighten the basis. You make the stranded acreage economic. You let producers who were structurally penalized compete on chemistry rather than logistics. And you do it with a chemistry platform that has already been validated, in adjacent form, on plastic and on bitumen.

That is the prize Aduro is now formally pointing at. And it is enormous.

What has not happened yet

I am not going to walk away from honest framing just because I am bullish.

What got validated on April 23rd was bench-scale. Yellow wax and black wax samples from the Uinta Basin. Reduced wax content. Stable at ambient conditions. Real lab result. Real patent filing. Last week, they also made a key hire Scott Smith to advance petroleum application.

What has not happened yet: no pilot timeline announced. No Uinta Basin partner named. No commercial agreement disclosed. No published economics on cost per barrel processed or on pricing into upgraded-barrel destination markets.

That is normal at this stage. The patent gets filed first. The partner conversations come second. Pilot announcements come after that.

What I am watching from here. Any named Uinta Basin operator partnership. Pilot or demonstration unit announcements specific to paraffinic feedstock. Disclosed unit economics. Capex framing on whether paraffinic upgrading deploys via the same FOAK template as plastics, or via a smaller, modular, wellhead-adjacent unit.

The next twelve months will tell us a lot.

Why I keep buying

Let me close where I started.

Same lab. Same chemistry. Three validated feedstocks, two at industrial development stage and one fresh from the bench. One filed patent extension. One global market opportunity that has been structurally locked up by physics for as long as there has been an oil industry. One management team that voluntarily put their equity behind milestone vesting, hit the milestones, and has not sold a share. One licensable, modular business model that does not grow at heavy shareholder expense.

This is the kind of moment that quietly reframes a company. From “interesting plastics chemistry” to “molecular toolkit operating across multiple industries with global TAM and an aligned management team.” From a single TAM to a stack of independent ones, each with its own customer base and its own urgency.

I have been an Aduro shareholder for a long time, well before this announcement. After it, I am not selling. I am buying.

Pay attention.

Disclosure

I hold a personal position in Aduro Clean Technologies (Nasdaq: ADUR / CSE: ACT / FSE: 9D5). It is my largest individual investment. I have conducted multiple CEO interviews with the company in the past as part of my editorial coverage. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. I am not an investment advisor. Investing in the stock market carries substantial risk, including the potential for total loss of capital. Past performance on any of my published picks is not indicative of future results on any individual stock, including this one. Always do your own due diligence.

Partial Portfolio Update: Two Interviews, Three Catalysts, and an Exit

Two CEO conversations posted this week, an annual print I think matters more than the stock reflects, a Q1 cannabis earnings call landing tomorrow, an ASCO presentation at the end of May, and a swing trade I’ve closed out completely, for now. Here’s where my head is on each.

Rocket Doctor AI (CSE: AIDR | OTC: AIRDF) — The Gap Between Built and Booked

The company posted $1.74M in annual revenue, with Q4 coming in at $697,340… over 30% quarter-over-quarter growth, marking the third consecutive sequential growth quarter. Gross margin held at 84% in Q4. The Canadian operation has now powered more than 750,000 patient visits to date.

Here’s the piece I keep coming back to: U.S. operations represented less than 3% of 2025 revenue. And yet, through Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, Rocket Doctor finalized in-network agreements covering over 21 million lives across California, New York, and Maryland, spanning commercial, Medicare Advantage, Medicaid, and Veterans populations. The U.S. payer infrastructure is in place. The revenue from those covered lives is, by and large, not yet reflected in the 2025 numbers.

This is a digital health platform and marketplace, and the gap between what’s already built and what’s already booked is the structural setup the company is now executing into.

Expect a full article on Rocket Doctor in the next couple days.

CISO Global (NASDAQ: CISO) — The Hard One

I posted my conversation with CISO CEO Dave Jemmett this week. If you own this stock, please watch the full interview. I’m not going to summarize the whole thing here, but I do want to flag a few things upfront.

I covered CISO from around fifty cents up to its peak of about $1.70. We’re now sitting around thirty cents. A lot of long-term holders are still in it, and a lot of them have asked me what I think.

The honest answer is in the video. I show my work, Dave answers the questions I had, and you get to decide what fits your situation. What I’ll say here is what’s changed since November and what hasn’t:

What’s changed. The April no-action letter to the SEC is filed, that’s the reason for the five-month communication blackout, which Dave addresses directly. The B. Riley facility has had no additional draws. New sales leadership is in place specifically to fix the channel program, and per Dave, two new clients have signed (one of which most listeners would recognize, but the company can’t name without permission).

What hasn’t. The stock is under a dollar against a NASDAQ listing requirement. Dave was unequivocal in the interview that there will not be a reverse split, which answers a question a lot of you have asked me directly. Insider buying hasn’t happened, and Dave’s reason (he’s already personally funded most of the company through uplist, and has been deferring bonuses for years) is the kind of thing I want shareholders to hear in his own words rather than secondhand from me.

I’m still long. I am not adding here, I am not selling here. Different investors have different risk tolerances, and underwater holders should not make decisions based on what someone else is doing with their position. This is the kind of stock where “your money, your call, your responsibility” actually means something.

The full conversation is below. I’d particularly point you to the section on the no-action letter and the securities lending framework, that’s substantive and most retail holders haven’t engaged with it.

Charbone Hydrogen (TSXV: CH | OTCQB: CHHYF) — Now Shipping, And I’ve Trimmed

Breaking: This morning Charbone announced that they are opening a 3rd hub in Albany. More to come

I sat down with Charbone CFO Benoit Veilleux for the second time, about six months after our last conversation. The headline: they are now shipping. Charbone has crossed from development and construction into distribution and sales, and management is now describing the company as a vertically integrated industrial gases business, ultra-high-purity hydrogen for semiconductors, data centers, and pharma, with helium and oxygen broadening the line. Three things I’m watching: Phase 1B at Sorel-Tracy commissioning in the next couple of months, which would push hydrogen capacity to roughly one ton per day; the Malaysia framework potentially shifting toward an accelerated project structure with equity participation for Charbone; and the Wolf River project in Wisconsin, where Charbone owns the Nadaro Dam and plans to self-produce electricity for hydrogen. Full disclosure on my position: I sold the majority of my position when the stock ran to 40 cents CAD. I still own some, and I’ll continue to add when the price is weak. The price ran ahead of the value on this one and I don’t leave money on the table when I don’t have to.

GOAT Industries (CSE: GOAT | OTCQB: BGTTF) — A Rough Patch, Honest Assessment

I’m not going to dress this up. The past month has been ugly for GOAT shareholders, and the stock is now trading in the ten-cent range. And now as of this morning they are halted. I would guess that is just until they get their audit done

Here is the sequence of events:

• April 6, 2026 — WDM Chartered Professional Accountants resigned as the company’s auditor. Per the company’s filing, there were no reservations or modified opinions in WDM’s audit reports on the 2023 or 2024 financial statements.

• April 10, 2026 — Horizon Assurance LLP appointed as successor auditor.

• April 19, 2026 — Horizon resigned on its own initiative, only nine days after appointment. The company stated there were no “reportable events” between Horizon and GOAT.

• April 27, 2026 — Steve Vanry resigned as Director and Corporate Secretary “to pursue other opportunities.”

Two auditor departures in thirteen days plus a board-level resignation is not a comfortable pattern, regardless of how clean each individual filing reads. I’m not going to tell you it’s fine. I’ll tell you what it is: a sequence of events that has materially shaken sentiment, and the share price reflects that.

The underlying thesis hasn’t changed — BetSource as the picks-and-shovels infrastructure layer for live sports prediction markets, with the patents, deployments, and partnerships still in place. What hasn’t shown up yet is reported revenue, and at this point that’s what would move the tape. Management’s communicated year-end projections, if delivered, would support a market cap materially above where the stock trades today. That word if is doing a lot of work — and it’s the whole reason the stock is where it is.

I am holding. I am not adding here, and I am not selling here. This is a high-risk corner of the market, and the right behavior in a high-risk corner is to size for the possibility you’re wrong, not just the possibility you’re right. Anyone who is overweight enough to be losing sleep should be honest with themselves about that. A longer GOAT-focused piece will follow once we have hard numbers to discuss.

LibertyStream Infrastructure Partners (TSXV: LIB | OTCQB: VLTLF) — Core Hold, Trade the Rest

This started for me as a swing trade and turned into something bigger. After it ran 5x earlier this year, I added a full position. My current approach: hold a core position, trade the majority around it. The past three months have been substantive on the operational side. In February, LibertyStream signed a definitive agreement with Select Water Solutions (NYSE: WTTR) to deploy commercial lithium carbonate production at Select’s water treatment sites in the Midland Basin, with the Stage 1 facility in Howard County, Texas scheduled for commissioning by end of December 2026 (capacity up to 1,000 tonnes per year of battery-grade lithium carbonate). They’ve since commenced production from the DLE Unit and the Lithium Carbonate Refining Facility at the Select site, pre-sold their first tonne, upsized a non-brokered private placement at $1.10 per Unit in response to investor demand, gained shareholder approval for Texas re-domiciliation in March, and added Michael Bodino to the board. December commissioning of the Stage 1 facility is the catalyst I’m watching. This is still a development-stage lithium company in a volatile commodity environment, the thesis depends on commissioning on time, producing to spec, and selling into a market where lithium pricing has been anything but predictable.

Medicenna (TSX: MDNA | OTCQX: MDNAF) — On the ASCO Stage in May, Real Data in H2

Big news on this one: Medicenna will be on stage at ASCO 2026 in Chicago on May 31. Highest-profile oncology meeting in the world, and visibility there matters for a small-cap immunotherapy name. What’s being presented, and what isn’t, matters, so I want to be precise.

The poster is a trial-in-progress presentation (ASCO abstract number TPS9612) on the NEO-CYT trial — the randomized neoadjuvant Phase 1b study testing MDNA11 in combination with nivolumab (anti-PD-1) with or without ipilimumab (anti-CTLA-4) in high-risk, surgically resectable Stage III cutaneous melanoma. The trial is sponsored by Fondazione Melanoma Onlus at the National Cancer Institute ‘G. Pascale’ in Naples, with Professor Paolo Antonio Ascierto, one of the most prominent melanoma oncologists in Europe, listed as the presenter. The poster goes up Sunday, May 31, 9:00 AM to noon CDT, in the Melanoma/Skin Cancers session.

A trial-in-progress poster presents the trial’s design, rationale, and endpoints — not patient data. So this is not a data readout. What it is, is high-profile validation: Ascierto presenting MDNA11 to the global melanoma oncology community in the field’s most-watched venue. That drives investigator interest, downstream conference invitations, and potential partnership conversations. For a name Medicenna’s size, ASCO visibility under Ascierto’s name is meaningful.

The actual data catalysts are still ahead, both expected in H2 2026: NEO-CYT interim data (first patient outcomes from the neoadjuvant melanoma study), and updated ABILITY-1 clinical results including data from the 2L/3L post-anti-PD1 expansion cohorts and the new NSCLC cohort the company added. There’s also an end-of-Phase 1 FDA meeting on ABILITY-1 planned for later in 2026, and the MDNA113 IND filing (their first-in-class PD-1 x IL-2 bispecific) is on the H2 2026 calendar.

Why I’m still long: the IL-2 space keeps validating itself through competitor M&A; Medicenna’s design (preferential CD122 binding, no CD25 binding, albumin scaffold for pharmacokinetics) is clinically differentiated; NEO-CYT is structurally clever because Fondazione sponsors it and Medicenna supplies drug (runway preserved); and the company is moving from “interesting science” to “multiple readouts on the calendar.” That’s the phase where small-cap biotech either rerates hard or breaks down hard, depending on the data. Clinical-stage biotech is binary, position size accordingly. I’m still long, still working to secure an interview.

LEEF Brands (CSE: LEEF | OTCQB: LEEEF) — Q1 Numbers Tomorrow

LEEF reports Q1 2026 financial results tomorrow, Wednesday, May 6, after the market close, with a 5:00 PM ET conference call led by CEO Micah Anderson, CFO Kevin Wilson, and CSO/IR Jesse Redmond. The webcast link is in the company’s release. This is the print I’m watching most closely this week.

The setup is interesting because of what’s happened in the past couple of months. On March 12, LEEF announced a US$4.5M initial closing of an up-to-US$8M financing led by Mindset Capital and its founder Aaron Edelheit (units at CAD $0.25 with warrants at CAD $0.30, plus preferred shares carrying a 15% annual dividend with a CAD $0.38 conversion price); Jamie Mendola joined the board in connection with the financing. Proceeds are earmarked primarily for expanding Salisbury Canyon Ranch to its full 180-acre permit size, which would make it one of the largest licensed cannabis farms in California. Then on April 16 the company announced the acquisition of Standard Holdings, parent of Himalaya Vapor, a California-based premium concentrates brand known for full-spectrum cartridges; the deal closed April 28, alongside the Q1 earnings date announcement.

Thesis is vertical integration: bring biomass production in-house at Salisbury Canyon Ranch, supply LEEF Labs’ extraction lines from the company’s own farm, compress input costs, and improve margins. If it lands the way management has framed it, that’s a structural margin story, not a cyclical one. Adding Himalaya on the consumer side gives LEEF another premium California retail line without rebuilding cultivation or extraction from scratch.

What I’m watching tomorrow: revenue trajectory versus prior quarters, gross margin direction (the cultivation expansion thesis is fundamentally a margin story), Salisbury Canyon Ranch construction timeline, and any color on Himalaya’s integration into the existing wholesale and retail mix. The conference call typically gives more than the press release on operational specifics.

Risks unique to this name. U.S. cannabis remains federally illegal, which carries through into banking, capital markets access, and especially IRS Section 280E, which disallows ordinary business expense deductions for cannabis operators and effectively taxes them on gross profit rather than net income. California specifically has had years of severe price compression and a large unlicensed market that competes directly with licensed operators. LEEF has been working through this — the company retired $10.5M of debenture debt ahead of its 2027 maturity in late 2025, removing over a million dollars a year in interest expense, but the underlying regulatory and market environment is what it is. High-risk corner of the market. Position size accordingly.

Swing Trade Update: AMFN (formerly RNWF)

When I introduced this in March at six cents, I told you I’d already been riding it from two to seven cents. I think the range is currently four to nine cents and may go higher. From there it dipped to .0396, ran to .0978, and is now sitting around .082 — I have completely exited my position. If it taps four to five cents again, I’ll buy back in. Rinse and repeat to stack those doubles. I am not in any way suggesting this company as an investment. It might be a good investment but I am only looking at the chart.

ADURO Expect a full article on Aduro’s freshly announced Uinta vertical. Below is the 30 -day chart and it looks like it is ready for another move. We had two back-to-back days with trading over 600k shares. People are starting to take notice.

Disclosures:
I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice. I write about th3 stocks I hold and the trades I make for you educational and entertainment purposes. 45 Degrees is a related party to Penny Queen. 45 Degrees, Inc had been engaged by Rocket Doctor from commencing July 18, 2025, for a six-month term to provide advertising services including Google Ads, social media, and video interview distribution. 45 Degrees has been contracted by 1502655 B.C. LTD to provide advertising services for GOAT Industries commencing on 02/02/2026 at $30,000 USD per month for a period of 6 months. This article is not part of their contract.

If you are following Aduro, this is ~20 minutes worth your time. If you aren’t following Aduro, you should be. It is my largest and highest conviction holding. A company with real technology, solving a real and expensive global problem. I flew to Toronto to do this interview in person at the London, Ontario location. A lengthier pure chemistry presentation will follow.

XO,
Penny

Share

That signal just fired.

Brookfield Asset Management, through their industrial subsidiary Chemelex, just made a strategic investment into a company called Algo8 Industrial AI. The deal: USD $2 million at a C$60 million pre-money valuation. Chemelex’s CEO is joining Algo8’s advisory board. And both parties have committed to deploying Algo8’s technology inside Chemelex’s global customer network

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The way you and I can own a piece of Algo8? Only through publicly traded GoGo AI Network, which is trading around 13m USD. (US OTC: GOGAF | CSE: GOGO)

Why Brookfield matters here

Brookfield manages over a trillion dollars in assets. Their private equity business doesn’t dabble. When they acquired Chemelex from nVent Electric in February 2025 for $1.7 billion USD, they were buying the global leader in electric heat tracing, industrial infrastructure with deep roots across energy, manufacturing, and commercial facilities worldwide.

So when Chemelex turns around and writes a check into Algo8, that’s not a passive financial bet. They have live commercial engagement with Algo8’s technology. They’ve watched it work in real industrial environments. The advisory board seat and the distribution commitment confirm this is a strategic partnership, not just a capital event.

That’s the part I want you to sit with. Brookfield didn’t buy a pitch deck. They bought into something they’d already seen perform.

What Algo8 actually does

Algo8’s platform is called PlantBrain. Think of it as the AI operating system for a modern industrial facility — it ingests vast amounts of operational data, learns the patterns of a plant or refinery, and delivers real-time guidance to operators: what to optimize, what’s about to fail, how to get more output from the same inputs.

The results they’re publishing are concrete. A major Indian steel group saw roughly 4.39 megawatts in average export power savings and over 3,700 hours of annual workforce productivity gains from digitalized logbooks. A global tire manufacturer just kicked off a multi-plant deployment worth approximately $4 million in initial contract value. One client went from one refinery to eight over two years. Another reports saving a million dollars in six months.

These aren’t pilots. These are enterprise deployments at Fortune 500 and Global 2000 scale, across energy, metals, manufacturing, and infrastructure, in North America, India, the Middle East, and Europe.

The macro tailwind

Two weeks ago, Jeff Bezos made headlines seeking to raise $100 billion, not for another consumer AI product, but to acquire legacy manufacturing companies and rewire them with AI. His vehicle, Project Prometheus, is specifically focused on physical AI: systems that understand industrial processes, materials, and operational constraints in the real world.

Whether or not that fund comes together at that scale, the signal is unmistakable. The largest pools of capital on the planet are looking at industrial AI as the next major deployment opportunity. The factories, refineries, and infrastructure that run the physical world are decades behind digitally, and the companies that can close that gap are going to matter.

Algo8 is already inside that wave.

The GoGo angle

GoGo AI Network holds a meaningful equity stake in Algo8, with ownership structured to grow as Algo8 hits milestones. GoGo is a micro-cap investment issuer, early stage, high risk, and not for everyone. But it offers retail investors a publicly traded entry point into a company that just received institutional validation from one of the most sophisticated industrial infrastructure investors in the world.

I own GOGO. I think the Brookfield/Chemelex news is a genuine inflection point, not because of the dollar amount, but because of what it signals about Algo8’s technology credibility and the distribution relationship it unlocks.

That said: this is speculative. Micro-cap investing carries real risk of loss. None of this is financial advice.

Disclosure

I hold a material position in GoGo AI Network. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decision.

Disclosure: I am a long shareholder in Aduro Clean Technologies (Nasdaq: ADUR | CSE: ACT | FSE: 9D5). This article incorporates independent third-party analysis reviewed and verified against publicly available sources. All price targets and projections are speculative and forward-looking. Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.

This piece pulls together a DCF model, an EV/EBITDA framework, an institutional ownership chart, a technical setup, and a milestone re-rating roadmap, all produced independently by different people, all pointing in the same direction. My goal is to be the through-line.

I won’t claim to be the only person doing interesting work on Aduro Clean Technologies. Over the past few weeks, I have come across a DCF model, an EV/EBITDA valuation tool, institutional ownership data, and a re-rating catalyst framework, all produced independently, all pointing in the same direction.

My purpose in this article is not to originate all the thinking. It is to be the through-line. To pull the best independent work together, connect the dots, and give you a single place to see why so many people who have done the math are arriving at similar conclusions.

This is what conviction built on research actually looks like. Not one person’s model. A convergence.

First, the Psychological Framework

There is a story about Walmart that I keep coming back to.

Walmart’s stock increased from less than one cent to over $140. The return is almost incomprehensible — one of the greatest wealth-creation events in the history of the stock market.

Who actually captured that return?

The Walton family. Almost no one else. Because almost everyone else sold along the way. Nicholas Sleep, the legendary fund manager at Nomad Investment Partnership, wrote about this specifically: many companies ten-bag at some point in their lifetime, but even when you bought in early, the odds are you already sold when you tripled your money.

This is not a personal failing. It is a structural one. The human brain is wired to protect gains. When something you own doubles, the fear of losing that gain is more powerful than the logic of holding for ten times more. And at every single inflection point, every drawdown, every period of nothing happening, every moment where the market seemed to be telling you it was time to leave, the psychologically easy thing was to sell.

The Walton family could not sell. It was their company. That constraint, which looked like a limitation, turned out to be their greatest investment advantage.

The investors who made the most money in the greatest stocks of the last 40 years were, functionally, the ones who could not or would not look at the price.

What the Data Actually Shows

This is not just a Walmart story. Morgan Stanley’s Counterpoint Global research team studied 6,500 stocks listed on the NYSE and Nasdaq over the 40 years from 1985 to 2024, focusing on the 20 best-performing stocks over the entire period.

On average, those top 20 stocks delivered an annualized return of 19.3%, beating the S&P 500’s 11.8%. However, nearly all of them suffered losses of 55% or more from peak to trough at some point.

The median maximum drawdown was 72%. The median duration was 2.9 years.

Seventy-two percent. Nearly three years. For the best stocks on earth.

Apple dropped 83% during its roughest patch. Amazon fell 94%, from $5.4 million on a $100,000 investment down to $304,000, and took over 8 years to recover. These were not failing companies in their drawdown periods. They were the best companies in the world. The drawdown was not the signal to sell. It was the price of admission.

About 54% of stocks never return to par after hitting bottom. So the risk is real. The ones that recover are exceptional. And the only way to hold an exceptional one through its full arc is to hold it when it feels most like you should not.

This is the framework I apply before I go anywhere near a specific stock. The question is not whether a company looks interesting today. The question is: do I understand this business well enough to hold it through a 70% drawdown? If the answer is no, I should not own it at all.

Old Highs, New Support

I want to say something specific to anyone who bought Aduro near the $17 range and has felt the pullback.

There is a concept in technical analysis that long-term investors often overlook because they are focused on fundamentals. But it describes something real about how price psychology works.

Old highs become resistance. And then, once broken convincingly, they become support.

Every significant stock that has gone on to be a multi-bagger has gone through this cycle repeatedly. The price runs to a new high. It pulls back. The people who bought at the top feel pain. Some of them sell. The price consolidates. And then, if the underlying business is progressing, the old high gets tested again, broken, and the level that once felt like a ceiling becomes the floor for the next leg.

The $17 range is not a failure. It is a data point in a pattern that plays out in every stock that eventually goes much higher.

@TheProfInvestor, a technical analyst with over 85,000 followers at time of writing, posted a chart of $ADUR on March 17th with a simple caption: “One stock which gives me the ‘I will double’ vibe. I am serious.” The chart showed exactly this pattern: consolidation after the run-up, a wedge forming, and a measured move target flagged above the prior high. 30,000 impressions. The technicals and the fundamentals are telling the same story from different directions.

What matters is whether the underlying business is executing. And that brings us to what changed in March

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What Actually Changed on March 19th

Aduro Clean Technologies announced an MOU with a leading global Engineering, Procurement, and Construction company to develop a commercial licensing package for Hydrochemolytic™ Technology.

Before March 19th: Aduro was a company with a validated technology, a running pilot plant, and a confirmed site for its first-of-a-kind industrial plant at Chemelot Industrial Park in the Netherlands.

After March 19th: Aduro is doing all of that — and simultaneously building the infrastructure to replicate that technology globally without funding every plant off its own balance sheet.

The MOU’s stated objective is a jointly developed commercial HCT license package and an associated license-driven business program covering how HCT solutions are marketed, priced, delivered, and supported for customers worldwide.

This is the Rolls-Royce model. Not the car, the jet engine division. Rolls-Royce does not own a single commercial aircraft. Airlines license the use of engines, paying per hour of flight, a model called Power by the Hour. The value is not in the metal. The value is in the knowledge of how to make the engine work. And that knowledge scales without limit.

That is what Aduro is building. Not “we will build every plant.” But “we will own the knowledge of how to make every plant run”… and the world pays to access it.

You cannot license something you cannot prove. Buried inside CEO Ofer Vicus’s quote in the press release were two lines that deserved their own headlines: the NGP pilot plant has recently transitioned to operating campaigns, and site selection for the FOAK industrial plant has been finalized.

The NGP is the instruction manual. The FOAK at Chemelot is the first full build from that manual. The MOU is the beginning of packaging both into something replicable everywhere. And the licensing model means replication does not require Aduro to raise capital for every new plant. Other operators bring their own capital. Aduro collects fees. The balance sheet does not scale with the ambition.

For shareholders, that matters enormously. The alternative, building every plant yourself, means dilution with every raise. It means shareholders waiting while the company manages construction risk in country after country. The licensing model compresses that timeline and protects the share structure.

The Independent Work

This is where I want to hand off to the people who have done serious quantitative work on this company, independently, without coordination, and without knowing each other’s conclusions in most cases.

The fact that they converge is not a coincidence. It is what happens when multiple people do the work honestly.

Piece 1: Why the Stock Is Priced Where It Is

Amateur Investing published a detailed DCF walkthrough using Aduro as a live example. His model is built around a key insight that most retail investors miss entirely: the reason the stock looks “cheap” at current prices is not that the market is blind. It is that the market is applying an extremely high discount rate, somewhere between 40–45%, because the technology is still transitioning out of the pre-revenue stage where that rate is standard.

As he explains it: at 40–45% discount rates, a company with Aduro’s long-term potential mathematically produces a share price in the $12–19 range. Which is exactly where the stock is.

The investment thesis is not “the market is wrong.” It is “the discount rate will compress as each milestone gets proven.” Here is how that ladder looks in his model:

• 45% discount rate (current — technology unproven at scale): ~$12–14

• 40% discount rate (technology de-risked, approaching first revenue): ~$14–19

• 30% discount rate (early revenues, business model emerging): ~$50–60

• 20% discount rate (scaling, established, private equity range): ~$200–300

• 10% discount rate (mature, low risk): ~$1,000

• 8% discount rate (fully de-risked): ~$1,000–2,000

Each milestone on the commercialization roadmap does not just move the stock because of the news. It moves the stock because it compresses the discount rate that rational investors apply to future cash flows. That is the re-rating mechanism.

Watch the full video here: Amateur Investing — Aduro DCF Model

Independent analysis. Not affiliated with Stock Therapy.

Piece 2: The EV/EBITDA Model — Including Heavy Oil Upgrading

A separate third-party valuation model by @perprins0 on X, built on EV/EBITDA methodology and covering both the Plastics Recycling and Heavy Oil Upgrading business lines, arrives at an implied share price of approximately $1,400 with a $52B enterprise value.

What makes this model worth noting is what it includes that most analyses ignore entirely: the Heavy Oil Upgrading vertical. Most models zero out HBU as “unmodelled optionality.” This one assigns it real value, 5% market share, $8/barrel royalty, 70% EBITDA margin, and still uses a conservative 2% plastics market share assumption on the recycling side.

Key assumptions:

• Plastics: 2% market share, $1,500/tonne revenue (top of management’s guided range), 22% royalty rate, 75% EBITDA margin → $2.28B EBITDA

• Heavy Oil: 5% market share, $8/barrel royalty, 70% EBITDA margin → $336M EBITDA

• Multiple: 20x EV/EBITDA, 37M fully diluted shares

• Implied price: ~$1,400/share

The model is interactive, you can adjust market share, royalty rates, and multiples and see what changes: Explore the interactive model here.

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Model based on Aduro public disclosures.

Piece 3: Institutional Ownership Building Quietly

The Market Matrix (@MarketMatrixs) recently flagged something worth paying attention to. The institutional ownership chart for ADUR shows a significant spike in accumulation through early 2026, right as the NGP hit operating campaigns and the FOAK site was confirmed.

Institutions do not accumulate quietly without doing diligence. That chart is not noise. It is a signal that the people who manage large pools of capital have done the work and are positioning ahead of the catalysts the rest of this article describes.

The Milestone Framework : How the Re-rating Could Unfold

This catalyst re-rating framework was forwarded to me by a member of my Discord community who wanted to remain anonymous. I fact-checked every real-world price movement it references against public data before including it here. The underlying comparable company evidence is sourced and verifiable.

The framework maps each commercialization milestone to a comparable company that experienced the equivalent event, and projects a price range based on documented market reactions. Each milestone removes a specific risk, compresses the discount rate, and unlocks a new pool of institutional buyers. (This is a speculative exercise, but useful for framing the potential.)

The table below uses each row’s starting point as the midpoint of the prior catalyst, a conservative, sequential framing rather than showing disconnected price ranges.

Full Catalyst Scenario

Tier 4 catalysts , analyst coverage initiation, institutional 13F disclosure, U.S. exchange uplisting: each add 20–60% to the prevailing price at the time of the event, additive to the above.

The comparables are not chosen for optimism. ASTS went from $2 to $39 when BlueWalker 3 proved direct-to-smartphone connectivity. QuantumScape surged roughly 200% in 2025 following the Cobra production milestone and first customer billings. NuScale reached a $57 all-time high following regulatory certification. Neste appreciated approximately 15x from its first plant commissioning in 2007 through 2019.

The critical difference between Aduro and Neste: Neste built and owned every plant. Aduro licenses the technology and collects royalties without owning the asset. In the replication phase, Aduro’s capital efficiency should be materially superior.

There are currently three sell-side analysts covering the stock: D. Boral Capital at $46, H.C. Wainwright at $22, and Ladenburg at $19. Consensus is approximately $29, meaning even the most conservative analyst sees the stock more than 70% higher from here. The milestone table above, the DCF model, and the EV/EBITDA framework all suggest the analyst consensus is itself conservative relative to what the business could become

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The Part Most Investors Will Get Wrong

The Morgan Stanley data says the median drawdown for the best-performing stocks over 40 years was 72%. Not 20%. Seventy-two percent. Over nearly three years.

If you are holding something because you believe it could be 20x from here, you have to be psychologically prepared for it to first go to a price that feels like the thesis has failed. Because that is what happens, consistently, to the companies that ultimately win.

The Walton family held Walmart because they could not easily sell. Most investors do not have that structural constraint. They have to manufacture it themselves — through conviction built on understanding, not on price action.

I cannot tell you Aduro is one of the exceptions. The MOU is non-binding. The FOAK has not been built. The licensing model is a framework, not a revenue line. Real risk exists here, and anyone who tells you otherwise is not being straight with you.

What I can tell you is this: I have now seen a DCF model, an EV/EBITDA model, an institutional ownership chart, a technical analyst flagging a double setup, and a milestone-based re-rating framework, all built independently, all pointing in the same direction. That convergence is not something I manufactured. It is something I found.

Before March 19th, Aduro was working toward one plant. Today, they are working toward one plant and the blueprint to replicate it everywhere.

If that distinction matters as much as I think it does, the investors who benefit most will be the ones who held it like they forgot they had it.

Disclosure: I am a shareholder in Aduro Clean Technologies (Nasdaq: ADUR . I have held a position since the IPO. This article incorporates independent third-party analysis which I have reviewed and verified against publicly available sources. All price targets, model outputs, and milestone projections are speculative and forward-looking. Past performance of comparable companies does not guarantee similar results for Aduro. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before making any investment decision.

If you’re new here …BetSource is GOAT’s wholly-owned technology subsidiary. Think of it like Shazam for live sports venues. It’s not a sportsbook. It’s the infrastructure underneath, syncing real-time advertising, fan engagement, and data capture to whatever’s happening on the broadcast. The venue runs exactly as it always has. BetSource just makes it more profitable.

The deal announced today puts BetSource inside a US sports entertainment facility running live racing and a network of Off-Track Betting locations. The platform will power advertising across approximately 10,000 screens (OTB locations, sportsbooks, and sports bars). And on dark nights, BetSource brings in streaming content like Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship to activate the venue and create revenue that simply didn’t exist before.

The advertising inventory at 100% fill rate is valued at up to $4 million annually, with BetSource targeting ~50% gross margins. Fill rates will determine actual results -that’s the ceiling, not a guarantee, and the release says so explicitly.

What I keep coming back to is repeatability. Same technology, same integration, new client. That’s the whole pitch, and this deployment is the first real-world proof it works. I sat down with CRO Craig Schneider to walk through the details. Full interview is above.

Disclosure: I own a material amount from a private placement at $0.30 CAD, with warrants at $0.45 CAD, plus open market purchases. I am not an investment advisor and this is not investing advice. Investing is risky and you can lose some or all of your investment. GOAT Industries Ltd. (CSE: GOAT | OTCQB: BGTTF | FWB: 26B.F) (the “Company”) announced a monetization agreement for its wholly owned portfolio company, Source Gaming Company (“BetSource”), with a sports entertainment facility in the United States (the “Facility”). I sat down with Craig Schneider, Chief Revenue Officer of Source Gaming Company and Veroom, Inc., to break down exactly what it means for investors.

BetSource is a B2B sports media technology platform - think of it like Shazam for live sports. It’s not a sportsbook. It’s the infrastructure layer underneath live sports venues, enabling real-time advertising, fan engagement, and data capture through its Cedar package.

PAID ADVERTISEMENT

This video constitutes a paid promotional communication and does not represent independent investment research. The video creator (the “Author”) is a related party of 45 Degrees, Inc., which has been contracted by the Company, through 1502655 B.C. Ltd., to provide advertising services commencing February 2, 2026, for USD$30,000 per month for a period of six (6) months. The Author owns securities of the Company, which were acquired in a fall 2025 private placement and on the market. This ownership and relationship may create a conflict of interest.

DISCLAIMER

The information contained in this video interview (the “Interview”) was prepared in consultation with the Company as of March 16, 2026 and relates to the business, operations, and assets of the Company. This Interview is provided for informational purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without authorization. The information and opinions contained herein are provided as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. This Interview does not purport to contain all information necessary to evaluate an investment in the Company and should not be relied upon as investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice. Viewers should conduct their own independent due diligence and consult with their own advisors. An investment in the securities described herein is speculative and involves significant risks. Prospective investors should review the “Risk Factors” in the Company’s continuous disclosure documents available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca. This Interview does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.

CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION

Certain statements in this Interview constitute forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws, including statements relating to: the Company’s strategy; the development and commercialization of BetSource; expansion opportunities; potential advertising inventory value; and anticipated benefits from the Facility’s use of BetSource. This forward-looking information is based on current expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions, and is subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks include, but are not limited to: risks relating to the Company’s ability to execute its strategy; risks affecting the success and timing of the Facility engagement; development and commercialization risks; risks relating to regulatory and competitive factors; and the possibility that anticipated revenues or benefits may not be realized.

Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking information. The Company undertakes no obligation to update such information except as required by applicable law. No statement herein constitutes a profit forecast.

CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FUTURE-ORIENTED FINANCIAL INFORMATION

This Interview contains “future-oriented financial information” (“FOFI”) within the meaning of applicable securities laws. FOFI has been prepared by management for informational purposes and is based on the following assumptions, among others: deployment of BetSource technology in the Facility; expected utilization rates; and continued platform usage. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. The Company disclaims any obligation to update FOFI except as required by law.

ACCURACY DISCLAIMER

The Author has attempted to ensure the accuracy of the information presented; however, no representation or warranty is made as to its completeness or accuracy. Information has been derived from company materials, public filings, and third-party sources believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified. Market data and industry statistics are subject to change.t.

My investments come from everywhere. I have a solid network of people who suggest companies, and a growing number of my readers have been sending me their picks -thank you for that, genuinely. A lot of them are somewhere in my funnel right now.

I review at least 20 companies a week and normally speak with four or five of them. I miss good companies constantly… either they didn’t hit my requirements, or they did on paper but something felt off. That instinct has saved me more than once.

My core filter is simple: I don’t touch a stock unless I can see a clear path to 5x from where I’m getting in. Not 50%, not a double… 5x. The company also needs to be either genuinely disruptive or exceptionally well positioned.

I also like it when companies have active IR campaigns. Not because I need to be sold on something I already own, but because visibility is part of the thesis. The best company in the world doesn’t move if nobody knows it exists.

I do keep a separate basket of stocks that are more akin to gambling than investing, and I always call them out for exactly what they are. Those are pure trades. I don’t care about the fundamentals. I’m there for the chart and the volatility, nothing more.

You’ll also notice that most of my committed positions offer some genuine improvement to the world. That’s not accidental. You won’t ever see defense stocks in my portfolio, someone else can make that money.

My job is to present you with ideas. Your job is to figure out how to profit from them…what to hold, what to trade, what to skip entirely. This strategy has delivered average annual peak gains of over 200% consistently for the last few years.

Make of that what you will. I want to be clear about the nature of this kind of investing, I have held positions that went to near zero, and at this end of the market that is almost part of the process. I have also held stocks that went from 26 cents to $26. When you spot a real winner, it stops being a trade and becomes an investment. Learning to tell the difference is the whole game.

Tell me what you want to see more of

Aduro Clean Technologies Nasdaq: ADUR | CSE: ACT

Aduro just signed an offtake LOI and before I tell you what it means, I want to ask you a question.

Why would a leading independent international commodities trader, one that actively sources and markets naphtha and certified circular hydrocarbon streams every single day, sign a structured, milestone-driven commitment with a small Canadian clean-tech company before the commercial plant is even built?

They don’t need Aduro. They have suppliers. They have relationships. They are not in the business of doing favors.

My answer is that they looked at the product specs, they understand what Europe’s Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation means for circular naphtha demand by 2030, and they want to be first in line when commercial production starts. A sophisticated commodities trader doesn’t sign an LOI out of curiosity. That’s due diligence that no press release can manufacture.

Now here’s what the LOI actually says. Two phases. Phase 1 is happening right now … Aduro produces Hydrochemolytic™ oil at the NGP pilot plant and provides samples for technical evaluation. Contaminant profiling, boiling range distribution, confirming the product aligns with steam-cracking requirements. Structured and milestone driven. Phase 2, when the FOAK industrial plant at Chemelot in the Netherlands is commissioned, this trader has committed to purchase the initial production parcel off the first commercial plant… with the intention to move toward a longer-term commercial framework after that.

The partner choice also matters. Someone who already knows naphtha, already understands ISCC Plus certification, and already has relationships with the steam crackers in Northwest Europe that can handle liquid feeds… that’s Aduro building its commercial pathway in parallel with the technology scale-up. Those two things advancing together is what de-risks this story.

Now the product economics. Most chemical recycling via pyrolysis produces a crackable yield of around 65%. Aduro’s process achieves approximately 85%. That gap is real margin. And pyrolysis outputs typically require costly hydrotreating before they can go to a steam cracker -running $475–$710 per tonne - before you’ve made a dollar. Aduro’s product is designed to go direct. No hydrotreating. That’s a structural cost advantage built into the product spec, not a management promise.

On price targets: every analyst covering this stock has a target that represents roughly a double from here. I think they’re being conservative, those targets are all built on 1% market penetration and don’t reflect what the numbers look like as Chemelot proves out and the commercial pipeline builds. The long-term potential at scale is a completely different conversation that I’ll save for another post.

But the double? Based on where analyst targets sit and what the chart is telling me, I think that’s a reasonable near-term expectation.

This is still a Letter of Intent …non-binding. But as a shareholder, this is what execution looks like.

Panthera Resources $PATRF on the OTC | $PAT on LSE

This 27-cent stock is completely detached from the economy. It doesn’t matter what the Fed does, what happens to consumer spending, or whether we’re heading into a recession. The thesis here is a legal claim, and the math is straightforward once you know the numbers.

Panthera is trading at roughly 5% of the known claim value of $1.58 Billion and that value was calculated when gold was at $3,000. Gold is now over $5,000. I’ll let you work out the math on your own.

Shares are still difficult to access in the US… the easier route is the LSE (easy for Fidelity and IBKR users). Milestones are being hit, India just filed their counter-memorial, Panthera should reply in July and the main hearing at the Hague is scheduled for December. This is a patience play with a defined catalyst and a hard floor of logic underneath it. Litigation plays typically rerate as the milestones pass.
Of everything I hold, I am most frustrated with the pricing here; it has been locked around 27 cents. Below is the London Stock Exchange chart and here is The whole story

Rocket Doctor AI OTC: AIRDF | CSE : AIDR

Fifteen million eligible patients in the United States. Let that sit for a second.

Rocket Doctor AI is my second highest conviction position right now and I continue to add as they keep building. Let me tell you what I think most investors are missing:

Most people think of this as a telemedicine platform. It IS a digital health platform and marketplace where physicians can set up their own virtual practice, set their own hours, see patients on their own terms, with no middlemen and everything they need in one place. That part is real and it’s working. Major US insurers are saying yes at a speed that has genuinely surprised me, and that’s your proof that the supply side is being validated by people who do not say yes easily.

But the digital health platform and marketplace is not the whole story.

Rocket Doctor has been building something called the Global Library of Medicine - the GLM - for the better part of a decade. Before most of us had heard the word AI, before ChatGPT existed, before every tech company started bolting a large language model onto their product and calling it revolutionary, these people were doing the quiet, painstaking work of building a medical AI system from the ground up.

Here’s why that matters. Medical care is approximately 18% of America’s GDP. Misdiagnosis alone costs the US healthcare system over $100 billion per year in excess costs. The GLM addresses that directly, higher diagnostic accuracy, real-time clinical decision support, reduced physician cognitive load, standardized evidence-based care, better documentation and coding. And unlike a general-purpose AI applied to medicine, this was built specifically for clinical workflows, for the physicians who operate in private practice and specialist settings.

The AI isn’t a feature. It’s the foundation.

Now look at the business: roughly $42 million market cap, 89% margins. That is not a pre-revenue speculation.

Healthcare AI plus a live physician marketplace plus a decade of specialized development plus 15 million eligible US patients, and you can still buy it at a $42 million valuation.

I don’t know exactly what this looks like in five years. But I know the people running this company understand the opportunity, and I know that $42 million is not what this is worth if even a fraction of that potential gets realized.

Leef Brands US OTC: $LEEEF | CSE: $LEEF

Leef is getting interesting fast. The stock is sitting around 23 cents Canadian, and they just announced a financing of up to $8 million with $4.5 million already spoken for… led by Mindset Capital, a serious institutional investor who literally drove out to the farm before writing the cheque. That’s not a company struggling to raise. That’s a company with believers who did the work.

Here’s the core of the thesis: Leef is producing their own marijuana for concentrate at approximately $8 a pound. They used to source it on the open market for $25. That’s not a rounding error, that change runs straight through to the financials. When they activated roughly 30% of their farm last year, gross margins more than doubled in a single quarter.

The farm itself is something else. Salisbury Canyon Ranch is 1,900 acres in northeastern Santa Barbara County, surrounded on three sides by national forest, no neighboring industrial agriculture, no pesticide drift.

The financing should get them to full activation of their license on the ranch. Q4 comes out on the 25th and I expect it to be dramatically better than anything we’ve seen before.

My only complaint about this company is that not enough people know about it. Here is a recent substack written by Mr. Mindset Capital himself [The Most Important Cannabis Farm in America]

Mindset Value

The Most Important Cannabis Farm in America

Read more

6 months ago · 24 likes · Aaron Edelheit

I expect to be putting out more information on Goat Industries, South Pacific Metals, Liberty Stream and CISO Global over the next week or so.

As for volatile trades (gambling) I am currently trading $RNWF. They are making really big claims about their fusion tech and a supposed share cancelation. The veracity of those claims doesn’t matter to me at this point, just the bouncing between 2 and 7 cents

.

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Disclosure

I am not an investment advisor. Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice. Always do your own due diligence. Investing is risky... you can lose all or part of your investment.

I hold a material position in all companies listed in this article.

A related party is any individual or entity with a material connection to the author, including but not limited to a business associate, family member, or any party with a shared financial interest that could reasonably be expected to influence the coverage.

45 Degrees Inc. is a related party to me. My editorial coverage is independent of and not part of any of their agreements.

45 Degrees Inc. has been retained by Panthera Resources Inc. to provide digital marketing and investor relations services. As compensation, 45 Degrees Inc. will receive 225,000 shares of Panthera Resources and has a $50,000 advertising budget

45 Degrees, Inc. was engaged by Treatment.com International Inc. to provide marketing services under a six-month agreement commencing July 18, 2025, for total compensation of USD $180,000 plus 400,000 stock options exercisable at CAD $0.45.

I want to start with three beakers.

Share

Take a look at the image above. On the left, light crude oil, Saudi Arabia, Russia (you can add Iran to this list, as well).

Golden, clear, pours easily. This is the benchmark. This is where the price of oil per barrel comes from, and it requires the least processing to get to market.

In the middle, heavy crude oil. Canada and Alaska. Dark, viscous, significantly more work to refine. Not as good as WTI.

On the right, extra-heavy crude oil. Venezuela. Black, thick as tar, barely moves. Hardest to refine. Mostly used for heavy diesel and asphalt.

That image is the best explanation I’ve ever seen of why I never stop thinking about the part of Aduro’s story almost nobody talks about.

The vertical the analysts left off the table

Every analyst covering ADUR right now is building their price targets, $19, $22, $46, almost entirely on the plastics recycling business. That’s HPU. That’s the headline story, and it’s a great one.

But Aduro’s corporate presentation lists three verticals with a combined addressable market north of $290 billion. The plastics business is $120B. The renewable oils conversion is $121B. And then there’s the one sitting quietly in the middle: Hydrochemolytic Bitumen Upgrading, HBU, a $50B addressable market that current price targets essentially value at zero.

I’m not saying this to be dramatic. I’m saying it because it’s math. When analysts model less than 1% penetration of one vertical and still arrive at targets 150-290% above where the stock is trading today, you start to understand why I call this my highest conviction position.

So, what does HBU actually do?

Go back to that middle beaker. Canada sits on the third largest oil reserves in the world, and the vast majority of it looks exactly like that, heavy crude commanding a discount to the benchmark price, every single day, regardless of what oil does globally.

Right now, producers face an ugly choice: either blend expensive diluents, typically naphtha or condensate, into the heavy crude to thin it enough to flow through a pipeline, or sell it at a steep discount to what lighter crude commands. Either way, they’re leaving significant money on the table just to move their product.

HBU upgrades that heavy crude in place, converting it into a lighter, more pipeline-friendly intermediate without the diluent dependency. Aduro is a Canadian company. This is not a distant opportunity... it is literally in their backyard.

Why this week matters for HBU

I want to be straight with you, because that’s how I do this.

Oil just had its biggest weekly gain in the history of futures trading, WTI closed Friday at $90.90, up over 35% in a single week, driven by the US-Iran conflict and fears of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption. Iran has said they are prepared for six months of war.

Now, I’m not going to tell you $90 oil is the new floor. But here’s what I keep coming back to: it doesn’t matter whether oil is at $60 or $90 for the HBU thesis to work. What matters is volatility itself.

When the price of your primary product can swing 35% in a week based on a single chokepoint, heavy oil producers have massive incentive to reduce their exposure to that spread. A technology that upgrades your crude on-site, reducing your dependency on diluent markets and improving your netback, becomes a permanent strategic hedge, not just a commodity trade.

The HBU case actually strengthens in both directions. Oil high? Upgrading economics improve, spreads widen, the value of each upgraded barrel goes up. Oil volatile or uncertain? Producers are squeezed, margins matter more than ever, and anything that improves their netback per barrel moves from “interesting” to “urgent.”

Where things actually stand operationally

As of February 11, 2026, the NGP Pilot Plant is running structured operating campaigns in London, Ontario. This is the critical de-risking step. The facility is functioning as a fully integrated process unit, running on Siemens industrial automation, generating real operational and environmental data that feeds directly into the FOAK design. Every campaign sharpens the engineering specs for Chemelot.

Speaking of Chemelot, the site selection is officially confirmed by press release, January 29, 2026. Aduro selected Chemelot Industrial Park in Sittard-Geleen, Netherlands as the location for its FOAK industrial plant. Northwest Europe was identified as the preferred region due to its established waste management infrastructure and concentration of downstream industrial partners... and Aduro has been active within the Brightlands ecosystem there since 2021. This wasn’t a rushed decision. It was the conclusion of a structured, multi-site evaluation process.

The commercial pipeline is real. TotalEnergies has moved from evaluation to collaboration. Steam cracker compatibility has been confirmed by an unnamed multi-billion dollar industry player. ECOCE in Mexico is advancing circular economy work. These are not marketing relationships. These are technical validations from companies that have no incentive to say something works if it doesn’t.

On the plastics side, the three competitive advantages remain intact. Feedstock flexibility that lets Aduro process contaminated materials competitors can’t touch. Direct steam cracker compatibility that eliminates $400-500 per tonne in hydrotreatment costs. And 85% yield versus 65% for pyrolysis. That yield gap is not a footnote. Under Europe’s PPWR regulations, carbons that end up as fuel don’t count toward recycled content credits. Higher yield means more of your output qualifies for the premium. It’s a direct economic advantage baked into regulation.

Aduro will also be at the ROTH Conference in Dana Point, March 22-24, continuing to put the story in front of institutional investors.

The honest picture

The stock is trading around $11 USD. The 52-week range is $3.49 to $17.66. Analyst consensus sits at approximately $26.86, and that number is built on less than 1% penetration of the plastics vertical alone. HBU contributes zero to those models.

I have been watching and following Aduro since 2021, and a shareholder since IPO. I am not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. Small-cap pre-commercial companies carry significant risk including the possibility of total loss, and you should do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.

What I can tell you is what I hold and why I hold it. And after years of watching this company execute... from laboratory development to a fully operational NGP Pilot Plant, from a global site selection process that landed at the heart of European petrochemical infrastructure, my conviction has only grown.

The jar of black sludge is a $50 billion market that nobody has priced in yet.

Sports betting in the United States is a $150 billion market and still growing. Online betting is now legal in 38 states. The sportsbooks, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, are the miners. They’re the ones fighting over customers, burning cash on advertising, competing on odds, and grinding each other down on margins.

So where are the picks and axes?

That’s what interested me in GOAT Industries (OTCQB: BGTTF/CSE: GOAT ) and its wholly-owned subsidiary, BetSource.

What GOAT Actually Is

Before we get into BetSource, I need to explain something about GOAT that confuses people at first: it’s not a typical operating company. GOAT is structured as an investment issuer on the Canadian Securities Exchange, essentially a publicly traded holding company that acquires and develops high-potential businesses.

This is the part that actually got me excited before I even understood the technology. Investment issuers are, in my view, the closest thing retail investors can get to venture capital. You’re buying into a vehicle that sources deals, acquires early-stage companies, and builds them out , the same thing VC firms do behind closed doors for accredited investors. Except here, you can buy shares on the open market.

GOAT owns 100% of BetSource. When you buy shares of GOAT, you get direct exposure to BetSource’s technology, revenue, patents, and growth. And as GOAT continues building its asset portfolio, both organically and through acquisitions, that exposure compounds.

I now have two companies with this investment issuer structure in my portfolio. I think retail investors are sleeping on this model.

The Technology: Like Shazam for Sports Betting

Here’s what BetSource actually does, in plain English.

You’re sitting on your couch watching a game. Your phone is in your hand. BetSource’s technology - built on 11 utility patents - listens to the live broadcast audio and identifies exactly what game you’re watching, what’s happening in real time, and what moment you’re in. Think about how Shazam identifies a song playing in a bar. BetSource does the same thing, but for live sports, and instead of telling you the song title, it opens the relevant betting markets, delivers real-time stats, and serves contextual information, all synchronized to the exact moment in the broadcast.

This works across TV, mobile, desktop, and in-venue environments. It’s not a single-screen experience. Whether you’re watching on your living room television and using your phone as a second screen, or you’re sitting in a casino sportsbook with screens on every wall, BetSource adapts to the environment.

And here’s what matters most from an investment perspective: BetSource is not a sportsbook. They are not competing with DraftKings or FanDuel for your bet. They’re the technology layer underneath… the infrastructure that sportsbooks, casinos, and content platforms can plug into to make their own products better. When Hank Frecon, BetSource’s Acting President, described it on Stock Therapy, he put it clearly: “They’re not competitors. They’re clients we want to obtain one day.”

That distinction is everything. BetSource doesn’t need to win the sportsbook wars. They just need the sportsbooks to keep fighting, and to sell tools to both sides.

How They Actually Make Money

This is the part that isn’t in the video, so let me walk through it.

BetSource has three revenue streams that come online in sequence, each one bigger than the last.

Stage 1 (Now): SaaS Licensing.** Casinos and sportsbook operators pay to license BetSource’s technology platform. This is recurring revenue, predictable, scalable, and the foundation of the business. Their stated target is $7.5 to $10 million in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2026. When I asked Hank directly where the pipeline stands, he said they have “a pretty healthy pipeline,” have already had “some great wins,” and that they’re “not shy or afraid of that number.”

Stage 2 : Revenue Share. This is where the model gets really interesting. Instead of flat licensing fees, BetSource begins taking a percentage of the actual betting handle processed through its platform. When you’re sitting in the tech layer of a $150 billion industry and taking a slice of every transaction you facilitate, the math changes dramatically. A SaaS licensing business might be worth $50 to $70 million. A toll booth on betting handle is a fundamentally different valuation conversation.

Stage 3 : Data Monetization. (.This is a more of a blue-sky revenue stream, but very possible with heavy adoption.) As more operators deploy BetSource’s platform, the system starts collecting behavioral data, what users watch, when they bet, what types of wagers they prefer. This data, anonymized and aggregated, becomes a Consumer Data Platform that has significant value to advertisers, content owners, and the operators themselves. This is the flywheel: more users generate more data, which makes the platform more valuable, which attracts more operators.

For the business as a whole, I described it to Hank as being “first a SaaS licensing company, and then beyond that, a toll booth on the $150 billion betting industry.” He pushed back slightly on the toll booth analogy, then paused and said, “I actually like your toll booth analogy.” It’s more like infrastructure that reduces friction, good for every player in the ecosystem, not extractive from any one party.

The Ad Density Concept

One thing that really stuck with me from my research: traditional television gets roughly 30 to 37 ad breaks per sporting event. That’s it. Google serves approximately 240 ads per hour. Facebook serves 62 per hour.

BetSource’s approach is to bring internet-level ad density to the live sports experience - but without interrupting the game. Within seconds of a big play, BetSource can simultaneously trigger a betting opportunity, serve a contextual ad, and surface relevant content, all as part of the viewing experience rather than a break from it. The monetization density is dramatically higher than traditional broadcast, but the viewer doesn’t feel like they’re being advertised to because the information is additive.

As Hank put it: TV has great content, but terrible utility. The internet figured out that you need to monetize both. That’s fundamentally what BetSource is solving for sports.

BKFC: The Proof Point

BetSource holds interactive rights for Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship. If you’re not familiar with BKFC, here are the numbers: 35 million social media followers, a streaming deal with DAZN, 80+ international events per year, and Conor McGregor as an investor. The sport is legal in a growing number of states and has lower injury rates than UFC or football.

This is a fast-growing content property, and it’s a live proof of concept. BetSource technology went live at KnuckleMania VI, BKFC’s biggest event, at the sold-out Xfinity Center in Philadelphia.

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Why Tribal Casinos Are the Beachhead

BetSource’s initial go-to-market focus is tribal casinos, and this is a strategically smart entry point that I think investors are underappreciating. Tribal gaming generates more wagering volume than Las Vegas, but these operators were largely left behind when sports betting went digital. The major apps are locked up by DraftKings and FanDuel. The tribal casino market is underserved by modern technology, and hungry for it.

BetSource has partnered with AAMBE Media, a respected aggregator and solutions provider in the tribal casino space, giving them a distribution channel into a market with less competition, real demand, and operators who are motivated to adopt new technology.

It’s a classic beachhead strategy: prove it works in an underserved market, build the case studies and revenue base, then expand to larger operators. Less competition, real need, and a partner who already has the relationships.

What I’m Watching For

Over the next 12 months, I’m looking for operator announcements to tell me whether this thesis is working or not. Every new casino or sportsbook contract validates the pipeline and gets them closer to the ARR target.

I’m also watching for when financial details start coming out publicly. BetSource confirmed they have revenue, with more detailed information expected around the end of Q1 or beginning of Q2. That will be the first opportunity for the market to start valuing this company based on actual numbers rather than projections.

The Bottom Line

I think GOAT Industries represents a rare setup for retail investors: a publicly traded vehicle that gives you venture-capital-style access to an infrastructure play in a $150 billion market. BetSource isn’t trying to win the sportsbook wars, they’re selling the tools to everyone who is. Patented technology, multiple revenue streams that scale from SaaS to revenue share, content rights, and an underserved market as the entry point.

This is early-stage, the company is pre-profitability, and execution risk is real. But I put my own money in at $0.30CAD because I believe in the thesis, and I’ve been buying more in the open market because nothing I’ve learned since has changed my mind.

Do your own homework. Watch the full interview on Stock Therapy. And if you have questions, you know where to find me.

— Penny

Disclosures

I am long GOAT Industries (CSE: GOAT / OTCQB: BGTTF). I participated in the private placement at CAD $0.30 per share with warrants exercisable at CAD $0.45, and I have purchased additional shares in the open market. I want the stock to go up. You should factor that into everything written above.

45 Degrees Inc., a related company, has been contracted by 1502655 B.C. LTD to provide advertising services for GOAT Industries commencing on 02/02/2026 at $30,000 USD per month for a period of 6 months. This is my own research, my own thesis, published on my own Substack. I am not being compensated to write this.

I and/or related parties may buy or sell securities of GOAT Industries at any time without notice. These relationships create material conflicts of interest. You should assume such conflicts exist and conduct your own due diligence.

Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own due diligence.

Now to today’s news:

The milestone we’ve been waiting for just landed.

This morning, Aduro Clean Technologies (NASDAQ: ADUR) announced that the Next Generation Process Pilot Plant in London, Ontario has transitioned from commissioning into initial operating campaigns. The facility is now functioning as a fully integrated process unit… running structured campaigns focused on data generation, optimization, and feedstock qualification.

On schedule. Formally handed over from the project team to operations. This is no longer a construction project. It’s a running plant.

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What’s Happening Right Now

The NGP is supporting both continuous operation and campaign-based experimentation designed to refine operating windows, assess process stability, and generate performance data under longer-duration, fully integrated conditions. Importantly, the feedstocks going through this plant will include materials supplied through customer engagement programs and real-world sources — not just lab-grade inputs.

That last part matters. Aduro isn’t testing under ideal conditions. They’re testing under the messy, mixed, contaminated conditions that commercial operations will actually face. That’s how you build a credible data package.

The plant runs on Siemens industrial-grade automation and controls, with process skids fabricated by Zeton. Aduro expanded its operations team and put every operator through a structured training program covering process operation, automation systems, safety procedures, and abnormal condition response. This is serious industrial infrastructure.

The Bridge to Commercial Scale

The NGP Pilot Plant is the critical technical bridge between laboratory development and Aduro’s planned First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) industrial facility. And today’s press release quietly confirms: FOAK site selection is complete, and equipment evaluation is already underway to inform design decisions and long-lead procurement planning.

That FOAK site, as we covered in January, is Chemelot Industrial Park in the Netherlands, one of Europe’s premier integrated chemical clusters. The data flowing out of the NGP right now feeds directly into detailed engineering, equipment specification, and execution planning for that facility.

Think of it this way: the NGP is the final dress rehearsal, and the stage is already being built in Europe.

Why This Matters for Shareholders

If you’ve followed the Aduro story, you know the company has been stacking validation milestones over the past year. They graduated from Shell’s GameChanger program, a program literally designed to kill technologies that don’t work. Their HCT-derived oil was successfully tested in a European steam cracker operated by one of only four global steam cracker technology licensors. They entered an active collaboration with TotalEnergies. They secured the Chemelot site. And they raised $20 million in a financing that closed in days.

Now the pilot plant is running.

In my interview with Eric Appelman back in November, he explained why the NGP was built from standard, well-understood equipment, what he called “Lego blocks that have been around for so many years.” The scaling rules for this equipment have been known for decades, which means Aduro doesn’t need a 10,000-ton pilot to prove the engineering works. They need the data to optimize conditions and validate performance across variable feedstocks. That’s exactly what this plant is now generating.

Eric also shared that Aduro’s crackable yield sits around 85%, compared to roughly 65% for conventional pyrolysis. Under the EU’s new fuel exempt clause in the PPWR, you only get recycling credit for carbons that go back into new plastics — not what gets burned as fuel gas or wax. That yield advantage isn’t a nice-to-have. It’s the economic engine of the entire business model.

The Next Catalyst

The next thing I’m watching for is the first batch of operational data coming out of this plant. That data feeds directly into FOAK design, into customer engagement programs, and into feedstock qualification. When we start seeing results from these campaigns, the story shifts from “the plant is running” to “here’s what it produces and here’s how well it performs.”

For anyone who has been asking “where’s the data?”… this is the answer. The machine that generates the data is now running.

If you don’t feel like reading my thought, here’s the video

Disclosure: Aduro Clean Technologies (NASDAQ: ADUR) is my single largest position. This content represents my personal views as a shareholder and is not financial advice. Always do your own research.

Aduro Clean Technologies

Nasdaq: | CSE: ACT

I’ve been wanting to do this video for years.

Aduro Clean Technologies is my single largest position.

This morning, the company announced they have selected Chemelot Industrial Park in the Netherlands as the site for their First-of-a-Kind industrial plant.

This is finally happening

What we learned:

Aduro has selected Chemelot, one of Europe’s leading integrated chemical industry clusters, as the location for their FOAK plant. Initial processing capacity: approximately 10,000 tonnes per year, with room for phased expansion.

Back in October, Aduro announced a global site selection process across Canada, Europe, and Mexico. They narrowed it to four finalists.

Chemelot won.

Why this location is strategic:

1. Existing steam cracking infrastructure. Aduro’s technology produces a liquid product that goes directly to a steam cracker, saving $400-600/ton in hydrotreatment versus pyrolysis oil. And that’s just the beginning of the cost advantages.

2. Umbrella environmental permitting framework. For a company at this stage, avoiding permitting battles is everything.

3. Robust utilities already in place. Energy, water, wastewater, transport links—all ready for continuous operations at demonstration scale.

4. Room to grow. This isn’t just about 10,000 tonnes. This is about building a foundation for commercial scale.

5. Existing relationship. Aduro has been active within the Brightlands Chemelot Campus ecosystem since 2021.

The external validation matters:

Frank Schaap, Business Development Director at Chemelot, said Aduro’s project reinforces their ambition to become a frontrunner in circular and low-carbon chemistry.

But here’s the quote that caught my attention: Stephan Satijn, Regional Minister for Economy and Vice-President of the European Chemical Regions Network—called this “exactly the kind of investment that strengthens our position as a European leader in circular and climate neutral chemistry.”

A regional government minister. The VP of the European Chemical Regions Network. Publicly endorsing this project.

Where this leaves us:

The Next Generation Process pilot plant is commissioning in London, Ontario. The demo plant site is now selected. The company has stated they’re fully funded through demonstration scale.

This is the path from benchtop to commercial reality, and today we got confirmation of a major milestone on that path.

I’ve been a shareholder since pre-IPO. I’ve watched this company grow from a concept to a pilot plant to now: selecting a site at one of Europe’s premier chemical clusters for their first industrial facility.

I think there will be more videos like this to come.

Here is the 1-year chart:

Rocket Doctor AI

US OTC: $AIDRF CSE: $AIDR

Disclosure: “This is disseminated by Rocket Doctor AI” 45 Degrees Inc., a related party, previously had a contract with Rocket Doctor AI for investor relations services. That contract has expired.

It’s been a busy 60 days for Rocket Doctor AI. They closed the Aliya Health acquisition, raised $5.2 million (upsized twice from the original $3 million target), signed more payer contracts, launched the Alberta CDSS pilot, and picked up analyst coverage.

I sat down with Dr. Hamza to talk about what comes next.

The key takeaways:

The US opportunity is massive. Rocket Doctor is now in network with over 13 million lives in the US, but US revenue contribution was less than 5% as of November. That fresh capital? It’s earmarked for digital marketing spend to bring patients onto the marketplace. Dr. Hamza was clear: “We really didn’t spend much of anything in the US until this most recent quarter. January on is really where we’re focusing on US growth.”

The raise tells a story. Going from $3M to $4.5M to $5.2M signals genuine investor demand. As Dr. Hamza put it, we’re starting to see AI investment “trickle down” from the Nvidias of the world into smaller, revenue-generating companies that are actually converting AI into commercially viable products.

The Alberta CDSS pilot is about solving the real problem. It’s not about spending more money on healthcare. It’s about fixing supply and demand. On the demand side: catch patients earlier, improve access, keep people out of hospitals. On the supply side: give doctors back the 40-60% of their time currently lost to administrative work.

The TMU partnership is a bigger deal than it sounds. Medical schools protect their students fiercely from outside vendor influence. The fact that institutions like TMU and the University of Minnesota are working with Rocket Doctor’s Global Library of Medicine? That’s a significant stamp of approval.

What makes their AI different: It’s proprietary, not a shell around ChatGPT. It’s a closed system that can’t be contaminated and won’t hallucinate. It’s clinically validated. They’ve run it through the OSCE medical exam with strong results. And perhaps most importantly, it’s commercially viable.

What to watch for: Execution. Q1 results. Dr. Hamza said it plainly: “It’s not good enough to say that we have access to 13 million patients in network. How many are actually being seen? How many doctors are on the platform using it?”

(Personal note: I am continuing to build my position in Rocket Doctor AI, and it is a long hold investment for me, I expect it to grow to my second largest holding within the year.)

Here is the 6-month chart:

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. I am not a licensed investment advisor, broker, or financial planner. Investing in securities involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

I looked at it, liked what I saw, and participated. Then I shared it with all of you before it closed.

Now that the dust has settled, I want to walk through the full thesis, what this company actually owns, why I think it’s interesting, and what I’m watching for.

The Structure: A Capital Allocator

GOAT Industries (CSE: GOAT | OTCQB: BGTTF) is a venture capital company…essentially a capital allocator that owns stakes in emerging businesses. Their flagship holding is a company called BetSource, which they acquired 100% of in exchange for 70 million shares.

The capital allocator structure matters here. When you buy GOAT, you’re getting direct equity exposure to BetSource and whatever else they add to the portfolio. It’s a familiar mode, think of it like Berkshire, but micro-cap and focused on gaming technology.

So let’s talk about what they actually own.

What BetSource Actually Does

Here’s the simplest way I can explain it: BetSource built the Shazam of sports betting.

You know how Shazam listens to a song and instantly tells you what’s playing? BetSource’s Whisper platform does something similar, it uses audio recognition to identify exactly what game you’re watching, in real time, and syncs it to betting markets.

Think about the current user experience. You’re watching a game. You want to place a bet. So, you pull out your phone, open FanDuel or DraftKings, scroll through a dozen sports, find your league, find your game, and by the time you’ve navigated there, the moment has passed.

BetSource eliminates that friction. The platform listens to what you’re watching and opens the relevant betting markets automatically. It continues syncing as you switch channels.

They’ve protected this with 11+ utility patents covering the core methods — not just the implementation, but the fundamental mechanics of how audio recognition connects to betting infrastructure. That’s a meaningful moat if it holds.

Why Tribal Casinos Matter

Here’s the angle that made me pay attention.

When sports betting went mobile, FanDuel and DraftKings captured most of the market. They spend billions on advertising and user acquisition. They dominate the app stores.

But there’s a massive market that got left behind: tribal casinos.

Tribal gaming generates more wagering volume than Las Vegas. These are established, well-funded operations with existing customer bases. But when sports betting went digital, most of them didn’t have the technology to compete with the mobile apps.

BetSource built their CEDAR platform specifically for this market. Instead of competing with FanDuel for new customers, they’re providing the technology that lets tribal casinos offer competitive mobile betting to their existing players.

The company has 300+ tribal gaming relationships in their pipeline. If even a fraction of those convert to paying customers, the math starts to work.

The Revenue Model

BetSource isn’t betting on a single revenue stream. They’ve structured three:

SaaS Licensing - Casino operators pay approximately $150,000 per year to use the platform. This is happening now.

Data Monetization - Aggregated user behavior insights have value. BetSource captures how people engage with live sports and betting together. They’re targeting this for 2025-2026.

Revenue Share - Starting in 2027, the company plans to take a percentage of handle on wagers placed through their platform. If betting volume scales, this is where the real upside lives.

Their stated target is $7.5-10M ARR by end of 2026, based on landing 50-80 operator contracts. That’s ambitious, but the SaaS model means each new customer adds recurring revenue.

The BKFC Angle

BetSource holds exclusive betting technology rights for Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship.

If you haven’t been watching combat sports, BKFC is growing fast — 35+ million social followers, a streaming deal with DAZN, 80+ international events annually, and Conor McGregor is now involved as an investor.

The UFC comparison gets thrown around a lot in promotional materials, and I’m skeptical of those kinds of projections. But the exclusive rights do matter. If BKFC continues growing, any sportsbook that wants integrated betting goes through BetSource.

It’s optionality. If the property takes off, BetSource captures wagering upside that competitors can’t access.

The Valuation Question

The stock currently trades around 60 cents CAD. The fully diluted share count isn’t straightforward, the BetSource acquisition involved 70 million shares, and the recent private placement added more. I’d estimate somewhere in the $75-100M CAD range fully diluted, though official filings with updated numbers are still pending.

Here’s why I think there’s still room to run.

Their target is $7.5-10M ARR by end of 2026. SaaS companies typically trade at 5-10x ARR depending on growth rate and market confidence. Hit those numbers, and you’re looking at a $50-100M USD valuation on the SaaS business alone.

But the SaaS licensing isn’t the real prize. It’s the revenue share model launching in 2027. If BetSource starts taking a percentage of betting handle rather than just flat licensing fees, the valuation framework changes entirely. That’s platform economics… and platform economics in a $150 billion market can get interesting quickly.

What I’m Watching

A few things I’m tracking as this develops:

How many tribal casino contracts actually close in 2026. The pipeline is large, but pipelines don’t pay bills.

Whether the BKFC relationship produces meaningful betting volume.

Execution on the data monetization piece… that’s a less proven part of the model.

Disclosure:

PAID ADVERTISEMENT

This constitutes a paid promotional communication and does not represent independent investment research. The Author is a related party of 45 Degrees, Inc., which has been contracted by the Company, through 1502655 B.C. Ltd., to provide advertising services commencing February 2, 2026, for USD$30,000 per month for a period of six (6) months. The Author owns securities of the Company, which were acquired in a fall 2025 private placement and on the market. This ownership and relationship may create a conflict of interest.

DISCLAIMER

The information contained in this video interview (the “Interview”) was prepared in consultation with the Company as of March 16, 2026 and relates to the business, operations, and assets of the Company. This Interview is provided for informational purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without authorization. The information and opinions contained herein are provided as of the date indicated and are subject to change without notice. This Interview does not purport to contain all information necessary to evaluate an investment in the Company and should not be relied upon as investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice. Viewers should conduct their own independent due diligence and consult with their own advisors. An investment in the securities described herein is speculative and involves significant risks. Prospective investors should review the “Risk Factors” in the Company’s continuous disclosure documents available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca. This Interview does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.

CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION

Certain statements in this Interview constitute forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws, including statements relating to: the Company’s strategy; the development and commercialization of BetSource; expansion opportunities; potential advertising inventory value; and anticipated benefits from the Facility’s use of BetSource. This forward-looking information is based on current expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions, and is subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks include, but are not limited to: risks relating to the Company’s ability to execute its strategy; risks affecting the success and timing of the Facility engagement; development and commercialization risks; risks relating to regulatory and competitive factors; and the possibility that anticipated revenues or benefits may not be realized.

Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking information. The Company undertakes no obligation to update such information except as required by applicable law. No statement herein constitutes a profit forecast.

CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FUTURE-ORIENTED FINANCIAL INFORMATION

This Interview contains “future-oriented financial information” (“FOFI”) within the meaning of applicable securities laws. FOFI has been prepared by management for informational purposes and is based on the following assumptions, among others: deployment of BetSource technology in the Facility; expected utilization rates; and continued platform usage. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. The Company disclaims any obligation to update FOFI except as required by law.

ACCURACY DISCLAIMER

The Author has attempted to ensure the accuracy of the information presented; however, no representation or warranty is made as to its completeness or accuracy. Information has been derived from company materials, public filings, and third-party sources believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified. Market data and industry statistics are subject to change.