All the rage these days are the recent primary victories by DSA candidates. If you remotely pay attention to American politics, you’ve of course heard about them winning; most recently in New York City and Denver.

This has produced a deluge of articles pontificating about what this all means, what Democrats ought to do, etc. etc. The Atlantic has been a particular font and inspiration for this article. Its output has been shockingly bad, being shallow and repetitive.

Jonathan Chait’s recent work is a great example of what I’m talking about here. He will sometimes write with a strangely panicked fear, fearing that these new left wingers aren’t like the social democratic New Dealers of old. They’re actual communists who want a dirty break with the party. That these people actually hold dangerous, radical views that normal Democrats, even progressive ones, reject. In his two articles on the subject since July 1, his first is far more focused on the big baddies who are secretly plotting to ruin the Democratic Party. Titled “Nothing Democratic about these Socialists”, this groaner is what inspired me to write this article in the first place.

Every article, this one in particular, must painstakingly retread the same tired, redbaiting lines. “They want to abolish the police and prisons! They want open borders! They want to seize the means of production! They want this, that, and the other! Did you know that Hasan Piker has said some bad stuff on the internet? Did you know such and such said this and that? Teacher?!? Teacher!!! The internet man said the no no words!” This but for 2500 words. Here is David Brooks whining, give it a read if you like. You get the picture.

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About two weeks later, Mr. Chait grasps that public policy might have something to do with the rise of the DSA in his next article. Titled “You Don’t Need to Vote for Socialists to get Universal Healthcare” I wanted to pick a few choice quotes to critique out of this absolute trainwreck of an article.

First,

“[Democrats] assumed that once the public experienced the benefits of Obamacare, Republicans would be unable to take those benefits away. That calculation has proved mostly false. Nearly the entire Republican caucus voted to repeal the law in 2017 (falling just short when a handful of senators defected). In 2025, the GOP sat on its hands and allowed a portion of health subsidies to expire, then voted to claw back Medicaid.”

This is one of the first moments I was confused by Mr. Chait and his view of history and his current information diet. In 2018, a strong midterm year for Democrats, the attempted repeal of the ACA played heavily on the concerns of voters. And in 2026, Democrats are poised for another strong year, healthcare playing a small but impactful role in that by all accounts. While I would agree that healthcare is certainly less emphasized than it was in 2018, I peg that more on the ICE murders, the warmongering, and Trump’s flagrant corruption than I would a failure to see healthcare as important. I think the war responsible for $5/gallon gas might take the spotlight! That these present circumstances may change the overarching messaging strategy isn’t discussed in this piece. Why? Because it may reveal further reasons to be voting for a socialist! I’m not a socialist or member of the Party of Socialism and Labor, an even more left wing group than the DSA, but they’re the only ones organizing protests against the Iran war. They win on the fighter message and the proof is in the streets.

Mr. Chait seems confused as to why these socialists are leading with healthcare when he otherwise perfectly understands that universal healthcare is one of the few issues that socialists have that is both highly salient with all people and in which people trust progressives on. Why wouldn’t they lead on it? Our political pundit class is shocked that the other side is engaging in politics. And by politics, I specifically mean the use of rhetoric to shape the public into action. Perhaps this is why they’ve been outwitted by both the left and right. They’ve forgotten how to do that!

Second quote,

“The second odd thing is that the Democratic Party also supports universal health care. It is, in fact, one of the party’s deepest and most consistent causes. Forming a competing organization that is primarily dedicated to the same goal to which the Democrats are currently dedicated makes little sense… Under Barack Obama, Democrats finally did establish a universal health-care program. Obama’s plan relied on regulation of the individual health-care market, plus subsidies and expansion of Medicaid, to make coverage available to all Americans.”

Mr. Chait’s view here is quite obtuse and quite bizarre. First, while it is in a sense factually true that every Democratic president has attempted to expand healthcare to more people, the Democratic party is not entirely exculpated from the present dysfunctions. Nor does it allot them an infinite number of bites at the apple without challenge. Clearly, voting for a normal Democrat hasn’t gotten the job done.

Second, I think Mr. Chait is making an incredibly wild claim that our present system is a form of universal healthcare. The persistent uninsured population that endured and the holes in the system (non-Medicaid expansion states, these enhanced subsidy cuts) are mentioned but their existence doesn’t seem to invalidate his claim that we have universal healthcare. Even if we take him at his word, the system has performed quite poorly since its implementation. High costs, long wait times for specialists and emergency rooms, persistently poorer medical outcomes relative to peer countries, the general neglect and understaffing of our public hospitals; a key component of the Medicaid system he claims is 50% of our universal healthcare system. One could continue. So even if Democrats are the architects of the status quo, the status quo is unpopular. If anything, that fuels the DSA candidate!

Third and last to mention here: Medicare for All, whichever flavor of that you support, would include provisions directly addressing the above criticisms and mainstream Democrats haven’t provided a meaningful alternative reform plan. I criticized Raja’s vague healthcare policies in my 2026 IL Primary analysis and I think it’s an underdiscussed factor in DSA success. And if the view coming out of the mainstream crowd is that we’re Mission Accomplished on healthcare absent some tweaks and hole filling, I don’t expect that to resonate with primary voters, or general election voters, either for that matter.

Conclusion

The DSA’s success all comes back to the Carville 3: Change vs. More of the Same, It’s the Economy, Stupid, and Don’t Forget About Healthcare. We want change (in healthcare), it’s an economic issue because of its costs, and it seems to be forgotten by the mainstream in their campaigns. Take a look at the moderate Promise to America, floated by the likes of Matt Yglesias and signed by some moderate Democrats. Healthcare is mentioned once and solely referenced in the context that a full time worker should be able to afford healthcare. More words are devoted to their commitment to balancing the budget (30) or renewing patriotism (44) than healthcare, or housing, or jobs, or retirement (17). The economic section is just 25% of the text of this document. Just pitiful.

The desire of the Democratic base is for a Second Bill of Rights, not Bill Clinton’s third term. The DSA provides a better roadmap to that than the PTA. I thought the premise of the Abundance Agenda was meant to be the moderate counter to the Green New Deal or Democratic Socialism but it seems to have had little staying power. Or, to be charitable, its results still need time to matriculate into the broader political conscience.

Like all the political trends of 2017-2018, the trends of 2025-2026 will certainly be forgotten about once Spring ‘27 rolls around and candidates begin announcing their presidential runs. If 2017-18 was a victory of a more moderate, healthcare focused campaign with a progressive undercurrent, it foreshadowed 2020 somewhat well. Does this left wing inflected fighter of ‘25-’26 with a moderate undercurrent foreshadow that kind of nominee in 2028? Who knows.

I would like to end by referencing Tolstoy. I’ve recently completed War & Peace and a central driving theme of the work (at least in my amateur reading of it) is that the great men of history, the great historical trends assigned to history by historians, are but containers for the thousands and millions of individual wills and actions of people who shape the times. What caused the War of 1812? The scheming of England, the ambition of Napoleon, the failure of Russia to maintain the Continental System, the treatment of the Duke of Oldenburg? Or was it the millions of individual reasons of the millions of people involved in the war from the Emperors of France and Russia down to the lowliest peasant? What caused the victory of Darializa Avila Chevalier or Zohran Mamdani or whomever else is in the headlines? Why did you vote the way you did in the most recent election? That, but a million times over is the answer to the former question.

See you in the next one.

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Editor’s Note: Politically Illinois now resumes. Will I write another article this year? I’ll allow Sgt. Dignam to answer. I’m also bringing down the paywall on the old articles soon, free takes for all.

Why am I writing this article? That is the first question I should be asking before any piece and the reason for this one is clear. After watching the cliched and frankly brainless election analysis on WGN and reading other idiotic takes, I felt compelled to speak my peace. I feel especially annoyed by all the old politicos they wheel out for these panel discussions who are incredibly out of touch, talking about the ILGOP like its still 2002.

Most election analysis I have seen so far has been about 3 main topics: which SuperPAC’s chosen candidates won, another round of the endless “should Democrats become progressive or moderate” debate, and how this may impact Pritzker’s run for Presidency. To these I say:

1. It is too mixed of a result to say but Stratton’s Senate victory was a win over AIPAC and Crypto. Otherwise, the Chicago Sun-Times has a good breakdown.

2. Are the progressives taking over or is this the beginning of the long awaited moderate comeback? Neither. Illinois is returning more or less the same ideological coalition with the exception of an anti-Israel vote (Kelly) being replaced with a pro-Israel vote (Donna Miller). What we saw during last night’s Democratic primary is what we have been seeing all over the country, the unification of the party around the effective state. Efficient, effective government is becoming the new unifying element of the Democratic party. Both progressive and moderate coded candidates ran on platforms supporting higher taxes paying for more and better services. The era of “the era of big government is over” is over. More on this later.

3. He won big Tuesday but I’m getting a little more skeptical of his Presidential chances. Pritzker’s approvals are too low for me to think that he is a top tier contender but his vast self-funding abilities and resume give him a lot of firepower to stick around where other candidates may flame out. Matt Yglesias has a take I agree with that boils down to: “the political identity of ‘too left for America but hated by left wing voters’, which describes Gavin Newsom, will result in a repeat of the 2016 and 2024 defeats”. This easily applies to Pritzker as well and is something he’ll need to fix if he wants to win.

Now, the key races.

Senate

One problem of mail-in voting is that sometimes you waste your vote prematurely on a loser candidate. That was my story with Robin Kelly. My pick for Senate came in a distant third for fairly predictable and conventional reasons: minimal airwave presence and no countervailing ground organization to make up for it. C’est la vie. Stratton ended up winning by a reasonable margin. Kelly couldn’t break through into the progressive lane that Stratton dominated in. Kelly needed to build a daylight between herself and Stratton that she seemed incapable of.

How did Stratton’s win come to happen? Why didn’t Raja, a candidate who has been on TV since last Summer, prevail? A few reasons come to mind. First, JB Pritzker was a difference maker in this race. Across the board, Pritzker’s choice won in the races he intervened in. The late cash infusion from his SuperPAC and his popularity within the party proved to be a difference maker. These millions of dollars, which some had thought had came too late, helped her receive the late breaking undecided vote. His pick for comptroller, Margaret Croke, also won a tightly contested race.

There was more. Raja had been plateauing in pre-election polling since he went on air; a sign that his brand of politics wasn’t resonating. What caused this? I think a lot about Raja’s phrase “abolish Trump’s ICE” vs. Stratton’s more unambiguous “Abolish ICE”. Raja’s slogan is certainly more technically correct, nuanced, and when faced head on with Stratton’s; polls better. Everyone can agree that there ought to be some immigration enforcement law enforcement agency and everyone also agrees it shouldn’t be weaponized as a paramilitary of the Republican party. But that qualification undermines the main theme of the same ad, fighting Trump. If you’re constantly throat clearing, prevaricating, and clarifying while masked men point loaded guns at protestors shouting “Bang, Bang. You’re Dead Liberal”, you look like a coward. And one more thing. The administration has gone out of its way to tell the most outrageous lies and slanders about the victims of ICE. They screech and holler about a made up illegal immigrant invasion. The last time they got confronted about telling straight up lies, here is what the now Vice President had to say: “If I have to create stories so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people, then that’s what I’m going to do.” Stop trying to pretend you can neutralize the right wing attack ad when they will shamelessly lie about you no matter what! Saying Abolish Trump’s ICE will not save you from their attacks calling you an open borders socialist.

Krishnamoorthi’s long hailed fundraising advantage may have worked against him, too. Both the public perception of political fundraising and the means of getting it are widely despised by the public. To amass the many millions he did, Krishnamoorthi had to have spent much of his Congressional career calling a phone list of for donations. His skill at that, while useful in a certain context, is ruinous in a political environment hostile to the establishment. People will hear “Candidate A has a fundraising advantage” and start asking the wrong kinds of questions.

If I had to pick one thing that put Stratton over the top? Stratton’s strong debate performances, particularly her answers about Trump and the Democratic establishment. Let’s start with her stance on the Democratic establishment, shown by her answer on whether she’d vote for Chuck Schumer as Democratic Majority Leader. Krishnamoorthi gave a characteristic wobble and so did Kelly. Stratton said no. Schumer and the Democratic party’s approval among Democrats has been in the toilet since Trump’s election. Stratton’s unequivocal denunciation both gave her a clear lane as the “fight the Democratic establishment” candidate and made her look more authentic with a straightforward answer. She also skillfully tore apart one of the more obnoxious questions you see from the mainstream media: “name a Trump policy you support”. Kelly and Krishnamoorthi both gave abysmally bad answers. Only Stratton stood up and said “there’s nothing that I’m going to say today that I can think of that I agree with Donald Trump on.” That’s what a real fighter looks like. Krishnamoorthi’s answer, praising his focus on reshoring manufacturing, made him look like a moron. First, Trump has repealed much of the industrial policy Raja & moderate Democrats championed as part of their broader reindustrialization/China competition policy project. He’s against you on the issue. Second, for the last year or so, blue collar job sectors, including manufacturing, have been in recession and losing jobs. This is a great place to hammer Trump: he has failed on his promise to revitalize blue collar employment. But no! We can’t directly attack Trump on economic issues! We have to give him a hand for this one, obviously?! Moderates might do a lot better if they thought more critically about the things they said on the campaign trail.

Last to mention is the role of healthcare in this election. Carville’s big three are still my north star. Change vs. More of the Same, It’s the Economy, Stupid, and Don’t Forget About Healthcare. Krishnamoorthi forgot about healthcare (and the economy quite frankly). While it wasn’t the defining issue of the race, I think much like his fundraising and poll tested slogans, made him seem inauthentic, shallow, and likely to be the next Krysten Sinema or Joe Lieberman. Early in the race, he gave a perfunctory answer on the subject claiming to support “allowing Medicare to negotiate prices for more drugs each year and for passing legislation to regulate pharmacy benefit managers in hopes of reducing drug prices.” A few thoughts on why this was a terrible answer. First, it’s pitiful in scale. Does the Representative support any form of universal healthcare or even simply expanding existing programs? Even the most bare bones of moderate Presidential candidates have presented ways to expand healthcare coverage. It never seemed like a fully developed issue for him. Second, we’ve seen this policy maneuver before, and I don’t think the public buys it anymore. The promise that small-bore policy changes such as “regulating pharmacy benefit managers” will produce a transformational decrease in US drug prices is ludicrous and absurd. Who believes in that crap anymore? Obviously, not the voters. And the Medicare drug price negotiation bit only serves to remind the more informed voters of why they shouldn’t vote for the moderate tagged candidate. If you can remember Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, it allowed Medicare to negotiate the prices of about a dozen medications. While this is abstractly popular, more engaged Democratic voters will see right through it. They will remember that far more expansive and effective regulations were gutted from the bill and who gutted by whom? Moderates. And who benefits from this policy, anyway? People on Medicare and the government’s budget. Not to sound selfish but what about the vast majority of us who aren’t on Medicare, what about our drug prices? Democrats need to remember the word “you” exists. A vote for Krishnamoorthi was a vote to do nothing on your healthcare issues.

Last to mention, and this could be said of Stratton and Kelly, not enough mention of Trump’s cuts to Medicaid. Destructive and pointless, these cuts are among the worst provisions of his Big Beautiful Bill, the nightmare inversion of Build Back Better. These Medicaid cuts are to me where you can win over moderate, independent voters and Trump voters while still tacking a more progressive line.

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House

One of the reasons why I’m reluctant to say that the Illinois primary was a victory for one faction of the Democratic party or the other is that the House results were a total mixed bag. Progressives won the IL-7 and IL-9 but lost the IL-2 and 8 elections. The others, too mixed up to say. I’m personally glad that Dan Biss won in the IL-9. An experienced state legislator who has been a rock solid mayor of a medium size city is the appropriate choice for US Congress. But Abughazaleh winning may’ve been the shot across the port bow that Democratic leadership needs at this moment. Ah well, I’m curious to study from her campaign and see what worked and what didn’t.

La Shawn Ford becomes the second US Representative that I have personally met, so that’s cool. While I’m fairly skeptical of his “bills passed” record he ran on, among other elements of his career, he was the best choice in that race. Get ready for him to hold on to that seat for the next 30 years! Very grateful to see AIPAC and crypto be defeated in this race.

Relatively unknown and unsupported progressive challengers emerged for 4 mainstream Democrats this cycle: against Mike Quigley (IL-5), Sean Casten (IL-6), Brad Schneider (IL-10), and Nikki Budzinski (IL-13). All 4 of these incumbents easily trounced their opponents, averaging around 3-1 margins. Does their easy re-election mean that the base is moving past its progressive fascination or does the fact that 4 walk on nobodies can take 1 in 4 voters mean a better funded and organized challenger could win? I’m not sure I can say. What I can say is that no matter who the candidate was or which side of the progressive/moderate split they take; all of them focused on expanding healthcare, combatting Trump, and raising taxes on the rich. Like I mentioned before, we are seeing the effective state take hold on both sides of the party.

I see this all as the foreshadowing of a Democratic Tea Party moment coming in 2028. The 2028 nominee will be whoever can successfully persuade people they will break the old Democratic establishment and bring about something transformationally new. Whether that ends up being a progressive or moderate platform remains to be seen.

On the Effective State

Regardless of the nominee, their program will be for the effective state. The era of “the era of big government is over” is over. On a whole range of social and economic problems, we are seeing two tendencies. First, an agreement amongst Democrats that the government should provide services and fund them through taxation on the wealthy. They only disagree on the scale and size of these things. In particular I’d like to highlight one of the moderate’s biggest winners, Melissa Bean. Bean’s most commonly ran ads focused on her past vote for the ACA. Even the moderates run on expanding healthcare. Second, this is becoming bipartisan. Across the board, taxing the wealthy, government intervention and provision in healthcare/childcare, support for Social Security/Medicare are at all time highs. You could frame the MAGA tendency as a dark embrace of this effective state: this state instead deporting millions and miraculously reviving American domestic industry but an effective state nonetheless. Whether you frame it in deep, existential terms or just view it as part of the natural ebb and flow of the “bipartisan consensus” throughout our country’s history, we are moving away from the Reaganite-Clintonite boundaries of politics and into a new era.

On The Republicans

The Republican primary had a few interesting stories emerge worth mentioning. The focus has rightfully gone to Darren Bailey once again emerging victorious over the “electable, suburbs friendly” option the ILGOP rallied around. They’re calling it the first race ever called before the polls closed. I want to focus instead on the upset loss of Norrine Hammond, one of the top Republicans in House leadership. I sat across from her just about a year ago to discuss cannabis lounge legislation and now she’s out of a job. That’s politics! The Illinois Freedom Caucus, representing the most conservative members of the ILGOP, has been attempting to overthrow the ILGOP leadership for some time. Hammond was the only victory they were able to claim that night despite running candidates against the entire leadership team. Hammond tried to attack her opponent on his previous domestic violence charge but to me that only helped him. Between Trump and the rest of the GOP the last 10 years, it’s clear to this observer that allegations of rape and domestic violence helps you win Republican primary voters. Her challenger handily won with 58% of the vote.

Can the ILGOP win this cycle? No. Could they have ever won? No. A midterm cycle for a 2nd term incumbent president will always be a brutal environment for that incumbent president’s party. This is a law of American political history, only subverted by the chicanery of Lewinksygate in 1998. While Pritzker has never been a popular figure, rarely cresting above the low 50s in approval, he also has never been unpopular or significantly scandalized enough to sink him. The ILGOP are also equally the victims of Trump. Trump’s cuts to Medicaid, Ag programs, the ICE insanity, unilaterally canceling funds for so many different programs, etc. etc. The combined effect of all of it is to make anyone who clings to Trump deeply unpopular in this state.

If I was Pritzker, I’d pick on the DOGE stuff more. Bailey campaigns on an Illinois DOGE, seemingly unaware that the real life program failed in every possible way and was such an unpopular disaster virtually everyone associated with it has been fired or forced out, the entire event deleted from the Fox News Extended Universe. Pritzker of course will hammer the same message on gun control, abortion, and “too extreme” for Illinois which I think leaves a lot on the table. Attack the economic program directly. Attack his proposals more directly. Bailey, for his part, will likely run on the same old same old: taxes are too high, crime is too high, the big Chicago liberals are running us over blah blah blah. Message received and promptly ignored.

Another snoozer race for the State. I’d be worried about low turnout this November now that the real elections are through. Maybe that’ll be a boon for those organizing for next Spring’s Chicago municipal election.

Conclusion

40th District State Rep. Jaime Andrade, someone who I’ve profiled on my TikTok, lost on Tuesday. Great news! Last remnant of the old Dick Mell organization is pushed off. Worth profiling in detail in the future.

Turnout was slightly higher than 2022 and that’s good news, somewhere in the ballpark of 25%. In some ways, I don’t know what it would take to get even higher turnout other than a mandatory voting law. 4 big time US House races, a big time Senate race, challengers in most every incumbent Democratic district. Plenty of state and local races of importance. Everyone had a competitive election on their ballot no matter where you lived, your failure to participate is a marker of ignorance and laziness. Especially with how easy voting is in Illinois. You had 2 weeks of 8 hour/7 day a week early voting plus a month of universal mail in voting plus same day registration at thousands of precincts across the state open from 6am-7pm all in a state that by law requires employers to give you time off to vote! I didn’t have time? I didn’t know about it? There was no real race on my ballot? Bah, humbug I say!

Some parting advice. Avoid thinking “this seems true so it must be true”. Avoid thought terminating phrases. Avoid, as a Leon Trotsky said, the dull repetition of slogans. Think and react to what is in front of you with your God-given Reason. That is why I wrote this piece.

With the final votes coming in, the last of the races being called, if I have more to say I shall say it. I have more to say about the moderate/progressive debate and how it really isn’t a debate at all but I make no promises anymore for future content. When I have the inspiration and time to write, I will write.

See you in the next one.

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“No matter what he thought about, he always returned to these same questions which he could not solve and yet could not cease to ask himself. It was as if the thread of the chief screw which held his life together were stripped, so that the screw could not get in or out, but went on turning uselessly in the same place… What is bad? What is good? What should one love and what hate? What does one live for? And what am I? What is life, and what is death? What power governs all?"

There was no answer to any of these questions, except one, and that not a logical answer and not at all a reply to them. The answer was: "You'll die and all will end. You'll die and know all, or cease asking." But dying was also dreadful.” - Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace

I’ve been struggling to write, as you’ve probably guessed from the nearly 4 month gap since the last article. Daily there is a scandal out of this 2nd Trump Administration that would make Teapot Dome or Watergate or Lewinskygate look like the petty drama of a local school board. Daily there are abuses of power that shock the imagination. Multi-billion dollar no-bid contracts handed out to regime friends and donors. A specially made cryptocoin that lets you directly bribe the President. Drunken TV hosts occupy key government slots. The cancellation of regime critical late-nite hosts to secure favorable government rulings. Legal immigrants shot dead by ICE agents while the administration lies about the shooting and the victim’s record. Indiscriminate mass arrests of legal immigrants and American citizens who are then sent to torturous facilities.

This never ending, endlessly expanding list of atrocities is the source of my writers block. I struggle to stop myself from detailing every last crime. But I can’t and thus I’m stuck uselessly paralyzed. On top of that, I struggle to elaborate my thoughts outside of 3 maxims which turn endlessly in my mind, rendering all other writing projects meaningless. They are:

1. Their goals are anti-civilizational and quite possibly evil; both in abstract form and outcome.

2. All they do is lie.

3. They’re trying to destroy the Constitution and America as we know it

Who is they? The Republican party, its financiers, and its media organs.

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Let me pause and give some exculpatory words to some (but not most) Republican voters. Trump was and is a fairly mainstream Republican in many respects. If you liked Reagan, voting for Trump was a logical and straightforward decision. People disagree that the government should provide certain services and some have socially conservative views, you just have to accept that. There also exists an industrial lying machine designed to manipulate people into voting Republican. A vast ecosystem of right wing media which has the singular job of obscuring Trump’s insanity. You’ve probably seen its results in a headline by now. “I thought he’d only deport the bad ones” and variations of the same, where some poor bastard who voted for Trump comes to realize that mass deportation now meant people they knew or some vital program they relied on got DOGED. These Republican voters exist because billions have been spent over the last 10 years to create a fantasy Trump: the successful and decisive businessman who is going to cut the liberal bullshit, shut the border, and bring the jobs back. All of this will never happen and probably could never happen even if more competent men tried. But that doesn’t matter. The damage has been done.

With that out of the way…

1. Their goals are anti-civilizational and quite possibly evil

It’s very hard not to escape the conclusion that today’s GOP is trying to destroy the very foundations of our society and are seeking to harm or kill tens if not hundreds of millions of America. I of course could list 100 examples but a few key ones come to mind. The destruction of our immigration system, which has produced enormous wealth and prosperity to this country both financially and to our culture. The defunding of vital infrastructure, including weather systems and flood control infrastructure. Get ready for more deadly floods caused directly by austerity and concerns about the “woke climate hoax”. Undermining and destroying global trade central to the American economy. Sabotaging the Federal Reserve, the supremacy of the Dollar, and privileged status of American debt all of which means wrecking the entire financial system. Defunding and starving public education and universities killing social reproduction and the middle class. Their drive to repeal trans peoples civil rights, threatening to place them all into mandatory detransition camps, and threatening mass surveillance from the FBI.

It’s a straightforward mutilation of the nation and everything that made it free, wealthy, and great in the first place. This isn’t normal political discourse but instead an existential struggle for what this country is to be and who can be alive in it. The stakes feel so high because the GOP have made them so high. Today’s GOP have been deliberately escalating their attacks on Democrats, their voters, and vulnerable populations because they want to hurt them. What else can you really say or debate when the other side wants is threatening to destroy you?

2. All they do is lie

All of the above is happening at all levels of government controlled by the GOP. It happens because of the endless lies which inflect their party these days. “They’re eating the cats and the dogs”, “climate change is a Chinese hoax”, “entire teams of trans athletes are competing in high school”, “ immigration represents an invasion”, “X mass shooting happened because of a trans person”. I could go on and on and on. What can you possibly do and say when so many people believe so many evil, awful lies?

And this is where I roll my eyes at the likes of Ezra Klein. I can live with the conservative people in my life because we can avoid politics, generally speaking. But so many conservatives can’t! And what they say about my friends who are immigrants, Muslim, trans, etc. is a pack of revolting lies. Am I to ignore the logical conclusions of the conservative lies that would destitute ME? They wanted to cut my school’s funding. They want to take away my healthcare. They want to cut the NSF/NIH-funded labs my friends work in. They want to deport my college roommate. They want to put one of my best friends in a detransition camp.

And it makes you want to scream, “God damn you, you evil bastards! Enough is enough! What the Hell is wrong with you?” Because of the non-stop lying, the GOP no longer shares our reality. So what can you really say to them anymore?

3. They’re trying to destroy the Constitution and America as we know it

If the above doesn’t convince you of this, I hope the recent cancellation of Jimmy Kimmel will. If what Kimmel said was too inflammatory and if Jimmy Kimmel is considered too left wing; well then anyone who doesn’t own a red hat and suck off the GOP will soon be out of work and labelled a terrorist by the government. Which by the way they’ve just declared full right to kill without trial or even so much as an investigation! Only God in His glory knows how many people have been swept up in these inhumane and illegal raids. Stuck for months in tortuous prisons for ICE agents to molest and abuse. Trump & Co. deliberately breaks the law and the rubber stamp GOP Congress lets them off the hook. He seizes the power of the purse, one of the most fundamental separations of power in the Constitution, to no protest from these supposedly constitutionalist conservatives! And now they plan on using Charlie Kirk’s death as a pretext to end the 1st Amendment. If Trump & Co. get what they want, it will mean the creation of a dictatorship which can silence its enemies with either the SLAPP suit, the FCC, or an ICE raid.

A private paramilitary army of regime thugs, endless fanatical and hateful propaganda, a criminal regime where a singular dictator issues forth the law. The end of the whole Bill of Rights. It’s an anti-American demolition of our Constitution and the whole God damn GOP is clapping like circus seals for it.

Conclusion

I can’t tell you how relieving it is to finally finish this one. With this article finally off my plate, hopefully I can get back into the groove of things. If you can believe it, I’ve been chewing on this for 3 months. I want to write about the IL Senate race and the IL GOP Gubernatorial primary next.

Trump & Co. lose more often than they win. They are more unpopular than the media lets on. The avenues to stop them democratically and peacefully still remain open despite their best efforts. Keep the faith. Fight on. Stay safe out there.

I’ll see you in the next one.

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Today’s article will be a bit different than my normal fare, instead focusing on social media discourse I think is particularly relevant. For those (mercifully) out of the loop, one of the major issues people left of center have been debating since the 2024 defeat is whether declining left/liberal cultural output, a failure to reach young men, and whether or not Trump’s October blitz of major, relatively non-political, male-oriented podcasts put him over the top in November. All three points have been swirling in controversy because 1) it allows many media types to attack feminine coded pop culture and 2) it allows the media to talk about themselves. So we arrive at a search for a “liberal Rogan”. Tens of millions being spent to “move away from ‘the current didactic, hall monitor style of Democratic politics that turns off younger audiences’” and to find or create an equivalent of Rogan who can speak to young men in particular but espouse liberal rather than conservative politics. The whole thing seems like the kind of dumb bullshit we saw all the time in the early days of the first Trump administration (remember the speculation about Zuckerberg or Oprah running from President?)

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My Criticism

There are a few substantive points to address. Recent elections globally have demonstrated a growing gender split, especially among people under 30. In our most recent election, there was nearly a 20% difference between the young woman and young man vote. And one of the key theories attempting to explain this split is the idea of a combo gender-political polarization especially centered around media consumption. Men watch male-centric entertainment covering male-centric interests: sports, weightlifting, outdoor recreation, etc. which are then covertly or explicitly redirected to conservative politics. Rogan, of course, is the ultimate example of this. Joe Rogan’s format is softball interviews with a variety of minor and major celebrities primarily in male-centric interests where he intersperses (consciously or unconsciously) conservative talking points about vaccines, trans rights, immigration, etc. during his show.

Thus the “liberal Rogan” crowd’s proposal seems to be, “do Rogan’s schtick of talking about UFC, lifting, etc. but then intersperse it with liberal stuff”, which I think is a flawed idea for a few reasons. First, liberals and conservatives are polarized down to their respective interests. The guy who is supportive of trans rights probably doesn’t watch UFC and vice versa. So the audience mismatch would sink you; no one who is a liberal would sit through the “meathead” content and no one who likes the meathead stuff wants to hear the liberal crap. A liberal Rogan instead should focus on the kinds of hobbies and interests liberals like, which then fails in the task of reaching out to young men turning to the right. Second, why are we so condescending here, calling them meatheads and talking down to their interests? So much of this discussion feels like anthropologists discussing a primitive tribe that is ignorant of wider human civilization. The proponents of “liberal Rogan” don’t even seem to know what his show is really even about or why people watch it in the first place. As a liberal who watches baseball practically daily and works out, all of this just seems so comically out of touch. And another thing; why are we wasting tens of millions of dollars to create an obvious phony, an obvious industry plant mouthpiece? A crucial part of Joe Rogan’s appeal is his authenticity. By creating such an artificial social media personality, you’d lose the main thing that sustains such an online juggernaut.

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RETVRN to the Newspaper

It speaks to just how clueless many major Democratic donors are. Why are we throwing money down the drain trying to pluck a social media star out of the choir when there are so many better uses for that money? And for me, that better use is reviving local media. Instead of potentially spending $20+ million on creating a social media influencer, why not instead revitalize local papers in swing states! How much better shape would our democracy be if the Cleveland Plain Dealer, Detroit Free Press, or Miami Herald weren’t shadows of their former selves? Would the man responsible for the greatest Medicare fraud in US history be a twice elected Senator of Florida? When local papers die, there is a direct correlation to higher corruption and worse local participation in government. Which leads me to another social media discourse I’ve been witness to.

Now this is a bit out of left field but stay with me. Much has been made of Nintendo’s decision to make Mario Kart World, a launch title for the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2, $80 rather than the usual $60 for a AAA video game. Of course, you see the usual squawking about how marginally more expensive luxury goods are an attack on human rights but something struck me about the price tag. For just $65, you can subscribe for a YEAR to the Chicago Sun-Times and read the full paper daily, a pleasant way to digest the news. The Chicago Tribune is running a deal that comes out to $43 for a year for a digital subscription. For less than the price of this game, you could make a meaningful contribution in supporting democracy. But no one seems to be making this point! Well, allow me to start. Local news is how much of Politically_Illinois is written. Without local PBS/NPR affiliates, sources like the Tribune, Sun-Times, Daily Herald, or Capitol News Illinois, the comings and goings of Springfield and Chicago City Hall would be left to the dark of lobbyists and insiders. These papers aren't just about heartwarming frivolities from the local Boys & Girls Club, this is coverage about an $120+ billion State budget and coverage that has exposed the most powerful man in Illinois’ criminal empire. Chicago’s record low turnout last mayoral election left us with nothing but bad choices in the second round of the primary. A local press that’s not in recession would perhaps change this. I encourage all of my readers to subscribe to their local paper.

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Building a Liberal Media Ecosystem

I want to quickly return to my previous point about Trump’s October podcast blitz and the general dearth of liberal online content. Trump went to a huge variety of podcasts: one’s hosted by major WWE star The Undertaker, the highest performing comedy/general variety podcasts like Theo Von, Rogan, and Logan Paul, he went on Barstool, he went to all the shock jocks and controversy chasers. This amounted to tens of millions of views of incredibly viral social media content. He was able to reach a younger audience than the usual Fox News MAGA hat crowd. And he did this at practically no cost. But all of this was only possible because there was an enormous network of either explicitly or implicitly conservative social media influencers. Liberals have no equivalent and this needs to change. By viewership and spending, conservatives dominate major social media platforms, a quiet coup of the Trump-Biden years. What do liberals have? The steadily decaying body of Jon Stewart and Pod Save America? How do you fix this? Especially with the reactionary turn of Silicon Valley? This is where we return to the search for a “liberal Rogan” and this is where you have to take such a search more seriously. Twitter was bought out by right wing oligarch Elon Musk and turned into a conservative mouthpiece. Most of the top 10 podcasts on Spotify are conservative, same with major youtube channels adjacent or explicitly about politics. Same with Facebook! This all grew out of a vast ecosystem of cable TV and nationally syndicated columnists and talk radio shows. A crucial observation in my opinion.

For a long time, liberals relied on a monoculture of media ranging from major national news to local newspaper that has since been destroyed. Destroyed as its business model collapsed in the face of the internet and destroyed credibility wise from self-inflicted wounds and conservative attack. Liberals have no replacement for this. And this is the central crisis. Both the epistemic crisis (no one believes in a common reality anymore) and the crisis of messaging.

A liberal social media, a liberal media generally, must be grown over the long term and in the same fashion. An ecosystem of writers, vloggers, podcasters, and every other kind of social media content creator that speaks to and grows a liberal audience. And for my money, I think it starts in a retro fashion with the newspaper and TV. Much like how the most popular conservatives of today started as small radio show hosts, we must start small and grow from the bottom up.

Right now, with our social media world, we are constantly blowing up our information-action ratios with dire news stories of impossible scale and scope we have no real ability to affect. This is ruinous to our psychology. But the happenings or your City, State, or region? There the individual can make a difference. Then, organically influencers and talking heads will grow out of this local focused ecosystem, who are able to speak to the major issues of the liberal cause and have a forum to hash out what those issues are in a serious way. This would be an excellent improvement over a handful of successful influencers and MSNBC.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Crain’s Chicago Business is only $225 a year for Print + Digital, so please donate or subscribe if you haven’t already so I can have access to even better journalism and create for you even better articles. On a more serious note, please consider subscribing yourselves to local news outlets and support local journalism. This is how we can revitalize local democracy and the US writ large, from the ground up!

Also I want to apologize for my drought of writing the past 6 weeks. I have been very busy offline between work, home, and family. So I thank you for your patience and continued readership. As summer begins, hopefully I can get back on track with weekly articles.

I’ll see you in the next one.

Schadenfreude aside, Illinois will be hard hit by these tariffs. Numerous sectors of our economy are reliant on either foreign made components or international trade. The average Illinois will be seeing an enormous tax hike on all the things they normally buy. While some have tried to, again, sanewash Trump’s recent “you only need 2 dolls” remark, I take it instead as a sign that this supply shock is irreversibly baked into the cake. Cue Walmart hiking prices and Trump mindlessly lashing out in reprise.

The tariffs are still in place, even after some reversals and pauses. I want to analyze how tariffs are going to impact the Illinois economy. Too long, didn’t read? It’s gonna be 1975 again; nonexistent GDP growth, high unemployment, and higher inflation.

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Jobland Where Jobs Grow on Jobbies

While Chicago experienced deindustrialization like many other Midwestern cities, it was able to weather it better than most because of its information economy centered on the Loop, fueled by world-class educational institutions. Despite this economic transition, many Chicagoans (6.4%!) are still employed in manufacturing and it remains a major part of Chicago’s economy. Ford has a Chicago assembly plant that is a crucial pillar of the local economy, employing more than 4500 workers. Trump’s tariffs have already started to drag on these industries. Ford, alongside many other manufacturers, have already begun to negatively revise their yearly financial estimates, estimating a $1.5 billion negative impact from these new tariffs. Like most things made in America, auto companies have foreign suppliers which will now be tariffed, raising prices for both the producer and end consumer. Federal Reserve Manufacturer surveys have indicated producers think that disaster looms. Price hikes, lost business, layoffs, production delays, and worse. Not only this, they are experiencing levels of uncertainty they haven’t seen since COVID or the 2008 recession which is slowing investment. Clearly, the administration’s constant back and forth on tariff rates, targets, and policy goals is destroying American manufacturing. A sector that under Biden was seeing record capital investment and finally overtook manufacturing’s pre-2008 employment share! We have a proven way to rebuild American manufacturing that we are throwing away because electric vehicles and semiconductors are “woke liberal shit”.

Another major Chicagoland industry is transportation. Transportation is 10% of the total employment of Chicago, we still retain our title as “Nation’s Freight Handler”. But Trump’s tariffs jeopardize these jobs as well. Reports have started to pour in of idle ports and record low ocean-going traffic. Downstream of this will be less freight for truckers and the railroads which in turn means furloughs and job losses. Without the steady flow of international commerce, these jobs will dry up. Additionally, many major domestic parcel companies, such as UPS, FedEx, and Amazon have major centers based in Chicagoland and elsewhere in the State. With Trump’s tariffs making online shopping prohibitively expensive, these major employers too will see a downturn and thus job losses. While Amazon may be pressured to not disclose the tariff rate, it indeed exists!

I’ll finally mention the impact these tariffs will have on Illinois farmers. Trump’s tariffs mean retaliation on American exports, agricultural products being one of the biggest. The retaliatory tariffs have meant that farmers are struggling to find buyers for their crop and face enormous uncertainty in the international markets they are fundamentally linked to. Chinese retaliation will mean a decline in farm income and a huge increase in welfare payments for these farmers. And given the nature of the agriculture sector, this means more or a less an enormous taxpayer handout to Big Ag. Now, as someone who was raised in Central Illinois, you would hear some jokes which gives me a certain point of view. “Why are farmer’s hats curved inward? Because they keep sticking their heads into their mailboxes for their subsidy checks”. Another one, “why are farmers buried 3 feet deep? So they can still have their hand out”. I’ve become rather cynical lately so it is my general assumption that farmers are more than happy to receive free government money in order to work less. This same crisis happened during Trump’s first administration and given farmer’s voting behavior in the last 3 elections, they seem to be leaping for the chance to farm their mailbox instead of the soil. You get what you voted for, elections have consequences, and one of those consequences is putting the American farmer on welfare. A position he seems to desire greatly. Nevertheless, this agricultural crisis will have a ripple effect across the economy and continue to induce stagflation, which is what Fed Chairman Jay Powell is signaling is the most likely result of the tariff fiasco.

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Illinoisans be Shoppin’

The American consumer is the greatest victim in this Trump tariff bonanza. It is intuitive to most people that taxing imported goods will raise prices across the board but allow me to share with you some expert analysis. Goldman Sachs issued a report estimating that inflation will surge back up to 3.8% largely because of these tariffs. Returning again the Fed Chairman, the prediction is higher prices, higher unemployment, lower growth. This is the exact same paradoxical situation the US was in the 1970s. While that crisis of stagflation was brought on by the Oil Shock, this supply side shock is entirely self-induced. While Trump & Co. are howling for Powell to lower rates, lowering interest rates will do nothing. If anything, inflation would surge even higher without prompting any new growth.

Consumers have already begun to pull back. Expectations are collapsing, like they did during COVID or the 2008 recession. After a brief pre-tariff surge, akin to panic buying before a hurricane hits, retail sales in April fell. Why wouldn’t they? Price increases are already being implemented even as Trump walks back tariffs.

Which is the biggest fuck you of the whole thing. The theory of victory Trump & Co. put forth for tariffs is that a durable price increase caused by taxing imports will shift jobs back to America. If they’re already walking back the rates barely a month after the fact, why the hell would I invest in an American plant when by year’s end the status quo will have been restored? This whole exercise wounded America’s vaunted investor stability, which has been a key pillar of our economic prosperity, FOR NOTHING. Coupled with the wholesale destruction of our scientific superpower status, long term American economic prospects have been deeply harmed. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the theory that Trump & Co. are using these tariffs for insider trading purposes only grows stronger every time a bull market appears with a new tariff decrease announcement.

Conclusion

It’s kinda darkly funny that this 2nd Trump term is a straightforward attack on his own base. Rural hospitals under threat of closure from proposed Medicaid cuts, Walmart (and other big box retailers + dropshippers rural Trump America rely on) staring at a worst case scenario for their retail model. Narcan programs being cancelled. Social Security sabotaged. An endless cornucopia of “‘surely the Leopards will never eat my face’, the man voting for the Leopards Eating my Face party said”.

I encourage all of my readers to gleefully laugh and mock at anyone who voted Trump who is now crying on social media about losing a job to DOGE or a loved one to deportation or seeing their business get fucked from tariffs. You voted for this, you brought this on all of us, you get what you deserve. You can’t say you were never told.

I’ll see you in the next one.

Editor’s Note: Sorry for the delay! I have been quite busy these past two weeks between work and life. I’m leaving this post as a freebie for the absence. Hope your Easter was great, thank you for your continued support.

Brandon Johnson’s election two years ago heralded the dawn of a new, progressive era for Chicago. Quite the flop it turned out to be. The defeat of Bring Chicago Home, the difficult budget battle last winter, and diminished expectations all around speak to a rudderless administration that didn’t quite come prepared for the task at hand. Not only is this administration struggling, the progressive faction inside the Chicago City Council is divided and stuck in factional infighting. Since the start of the new year: Mayor-aligned Alders fearful for their committee chairships and seek a vote of confidence, the highly left wing Chicago arts community penned an anti-administration open letter detailing yet more disastrous mismanagement at City Hall, an ethics scandal, and the City Council agenda remains as gridlocked as ever.

As for the general public, the situation is somehow even worse. Polling has him below 10%, about as popular as cancer or North Korea. The media too has been no friend to the administration and Johnson has given them very little reason to be one. Stonewalls, erratic behavior, and periodic hostility are common from this administration. All of this combines to create a crisis of confidence. There is no more faith that this administration will right the ship and reform the City. I want to detail this crisis in the Johnson administration’s executive mismanagement, horrible Council relations, and the political malaise that clouds the future.

A House Leaks From the Roof On Down

The crisis of confidence begins with his management of the executive branch. I will begin with the aforementioned Chicago artists letter, the latest in a long line of complaints highlighting toxic work environments and depleted staffing all over his administration. This cultural office has lost about 2 dozen employees since Johnson took office and his choice for department head, Clinée Hedspeth, has been accused of harassment, bullying, and creating a hostile work environment. This dry rot of unreplaced staff and hostile workplace mismanagement destroys state capacity which is a critical component of a government positive progressive agenda which Johnson supposedly campaigned on. Not only that, if you’ve lost the bleeding hearts and artists as a progressive, who can you possibly have left?

There are also routine stories of incompetence and missed opportunities. For instance, the Mayor’s office has had a poor working relationship with Springfield, struggling to make headway on Chicago priorities at the State House. His most recent hire for government affairs found himself inserted late into the 2025 General Session and is of questionable credentials himself. By arriving so late, Mayor Johnson will have to wait a full year to see any of his more substantial Springfield items move. Mayor Johnson also has a bad habit of appointing people with absolutely no transit experience to the various Chicagoland transit boards. This is an older story but given its repetition and that Johnson has failed to prioritize transit, we have to keep bringing it up. It is incredible to watch the Mayor continue to play no role whatsoever in saving Chicagoland transit from its upcoming fiscal cliff.

His management has also been routinely unprofessional. Another high profile purge of 3 major department leaders with the distressing remark “There’s a whole bunch of people like ‘Oh, shoot. Who’s about to get fired?’ Well, you about to find out. Stay tuned.” What is this Trumpian crap? Changing your mind, shuffling staff; these are common parts of government and “not cleaning house sooner” is a reasonable lesson to learn. But going about it in this disorganized fashion furthers the crisis of confidence. It looks more like flailing than anything else.

This is also an excellent place to mention the “gift room”, where high priced whiskey and other items were being given to Johnson. A representative from the Inspector General tried to access this and the related mandatory reporting documents which Brandon Johnson’s staff refused to provide. This stain on the administration is emblematic of its two faced dealings: reformer on the campaign trail, same ole’ Chicago on the 5th Floor. Why trust or believe in this administration anymore?

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Council Wars 2: Electric Boogaloo

Mayor Johnson has had a disastrous relationship with the City Council, so bad it’s hearkening back to a previous era of Chicago politics; the Council Wars. The original Council Wars were between Mayor Harold Washington and the “Vroldek 29”, a protracted legislative stalemate during the mid-1980s between the first Black Mayor and a broad coalition of racist and conservative alders. Johnson would be lucky to have even the meager support that Harold Washington had. His first budget, involving a property tax increase, was voted down in humiliating fashion 50-0. Other incidents on the Council have only further eroded his ability to work with them. First to mention has been the steadily growing rift between the Black and Latino caucuses which Johnson has struggled to mend. Prior to Johnson’s term, a battle over redistricting between the two caucuses opened a fresh rift. This rift was widened during the migrant crisis, where many black alders felt that concerns for migrants were being resolved faster, with more urgency, and with the scarce resources they, as long time residents, deserved more. While this crisis has come to end as Republicans have found new ways to torture and brutalize immigrants, the enmity remains.

And it was also in this episode where the awful “winterized base camp” idea nearly came into being. This further tarnished the Chicago progressive movement’s credibility while simultaneously causing factional infighting. For the obvious drawbacks of building a tent city on a polluted industrial lot with a corrupt, low quality contractor got even the most partisan progressive to start critiquing Mayor Johnson. This factional infighting has worsened. Especially on the subject of government transparency and ethics. Johnson has been a spectacular disappointment on government ethics, a key part of his campaign. Progressive Matt Martin’s fairly modest ethics reform package has been stalled and delayed by Johnson and his few remaining allies on the City Council. Once again, Johnson is relying on a mutant coalition of progressive partisans and Council conservatives to preserve the status quo in Chicago.

Last to mention in this Council Wars 2.0 saga is an episode where several progressive alders had to publicly confirm Johnson’s confidence in their leadership roles. This theoretical reshuffle of leadership would be a mistake. There are two big questions that arise here. One, where are you finding the alders you need when you’ve already burned through your closest allies? Second, what could you even be spit balling here? None of the people mentioned here are roadblocks to his agenda, those would be the more conservative police and downtown oriented alders. So what is causing this friendly fire other than their failure to unquestioningly follow orders? All I see is an administration in a tailspin mistaking friend for foe. I return to the crisis of confidence, the Mayor cannot solve the many problems of Chicago if he is at war with his own closest allies.

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What Are We Even Doing Here

A frequent criticism I hear about Mayor Johnson is “he’s doing nothing” or that “his priorities are wrong”. These criticisms arise from the lack of positive message, direction, or clarity emerging from the Johnson administration. What are his priorities? It seems to many observers the only priority is how to maximize dollars spent on CPS or various pork projects, regardless of how effective those dollars are. I detailed the 2 large bond issues the City recently passed and the most common question I had was “but is this really worth the money we are spending?” This echoes concerns people had about previous failed efforts such as his biggest failure of all, Bring Chicago Home. Bring Chicago Home was incredibly vague on details and planning. It often seems like the administration is loath to explain itself or give honest appraisals of situations. “What are we doing here, why are we doing it”, how else would you describe a crisis of confidence?

If the legislative agenda is dead in the water, what about the media front? Once again, nothing. They communicate sparingly with the press and there doesn’t appear to be much in the way of friendly news organs cultivated to spread his message. Johnson doesn’t even have much in the way of grassroots social media support. There is no network of social media influencers who are singing his praises. His various defeats seemed to have sapped the enthusiasm and vigor from the administration. The first year saw the defeat of Bring Chicago Home and the second year saw the complete breakdown of the Mayor’s legislative agenda. He has lost the plot and is sinking into the quagmire of being another failed Mayor.

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Conclusion

In Chicago politics, there is an aphorism, “there are builder mayors and there are reformer mayors”. The builders get stuff done working within a corrupted system while reformers are stuck on the outside rarely able to make change. Builders are the Daleys and Emmanuel. The reformers are Jane Byrne and Harold Washington. Mayor Johnson is yet another failed reformer at this point, halfway through his first and likely only term.

I felt compelled to vote for Brandon Johnson because my first choice, Kam Buckner, had no chance of making it to the second round. I was also motivated by a certain Anyone But Lightfoot attitude. But now I have come to see that Johnson is basically the same as Lightfoot, yet another ineffective reformer with misplaced priorities. I don’t regret my 2nd round vote. Paul Vallas would have certainly been a worse choice for Mayor. God only knows what he would’ve been up to with Trump in office or how bad the CTU strike would’ve been. But I sincerely mourn that Kam Buckner couldn’t crack through. Maybe next time?

I’ll see you in the next one.

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With the 2 year anniversary of Mayor Brandon Johnson’s election, we return to the housing issue. Brandon Johnson has never been a pro-housing champion. Coming out of the DSA aligned Chicago Teachers Union, market oriented reforms were never going to be something that came naturally to him. His housing program was late arriving in the campaign and thin on details. This led many in the pro-housing crowd to only reluctantly favor him over Vallas. This reluctance proved warranted, quickly.

This past year has been frustrating for housing in Chicago. After having both his first and second choice for zoning board scuttled (both prototypical left wing NIMBYs), he turned to dean of the City Council Alderman Walter Burnett as zoning chair. Alderman Walter Burnett has been described as “one of the fiercest defenders of the largely unwritten practice of aldermanic prerogative”. Aldermanic prerogative has long been identified as one of the key drivers of the Chicago housing crisis. Not only that, it’s also been tied to the deep segregation the City experiences. With the Chicago Housing shortage’s fiercest defender as chair of the zoning board, is it any wonder to learn that less than 10 of Brandon Johnson’s 107 “Cut the Tape” recommendations have been implemented? It has been more than 3 months since the last update, with only sporadic updates throughout the life of the program. The Cut the Tape initiative was front and center of my last article on Brandon Johnson’s term in office, a year later almost nothing has changed. Likewise, an ordinance to expand the ADU pilot program citywide has been left to wither since last summer.

Two years into office, let's dive into the continuing failure of Mayor Johnson to solve Chicago’s housing crisis.

Zoning Chair: Bad in New and Unique Ways

Let’s just put it all on the table. Alderman Walter Burnett is the exact wrong choice for zoning chair. The Alderman is a staunch advocate for continuing aldermanic prerogative. It’s the exact style of personalist rule that has continually led to decades of criminal convictions, economic stagnation, and a worsening housing shortage. The notion that community hearings represent the will of the people but not elections, with substantially greater turnout and media coverage, is genuinely insulting to one’s intelligence. I can quote academic studies or reports from various boards and government agencies but I shouldn’t need to. I can simply quote the evidence of your eyes and ears. What has been the status quo of housing development here in Chicago? Aldermanic Prerogative. What is the status quo of housing in Chicago? A worsening shortage. The proponents of this model will never face the facts. They present no rebuttal to the growing body of evidence against aldermanic prerogative and instead continue to double down on the standard NIMBY claptrap. Alderman Burnett: “I truly believe in community input… I want the people to have a voice. I don’t know every nook and cranny of every neighborhood. And when I say the people, I mean the alderman”. This is the attitude of the bad old way, of the old guard. This personalist rule that creates the culture of corruption that infects all of Chicago and Illinois and is the exact kind of oligarch behavior Trump cultivates now. Why are we celebrating a system where private business only exists if they flatter and patronize politicians?

ADU Fiasco

In 2021, Chicago began the Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU) pilot program. This program would allow property owners to build small units on their lots without requiring City council approval, subject to a vast number of restrictions and limited to 5 zones. This program has had limited success, with only 44% of pre-approved applications receiving building permits resulting in 292 total units. 94% of them were located in the North and Northwest sides, hardly accomplishing the “equity” goals put forth. To quote a thorough South Side Weekly article on the problem: “Legacy parking space requirements, banks’ reluctance to finance medium-sized projects, strict design and zoning guidelines, and the high cost of connecting coach homes to utilities have prevented the program from widespread adoption. Requirements for ADUs are also more strict in the West, South, and Southeast areas. Only two ADU permits can be issued per block per year in these zones, while there is no limit on ADU permits for the North and Northwest zones. The West, South, and Southeast areas also require that the buildings eligible for ADUs be owner-occupied and that coach houses cannot be built on vacant lots before a principal residence—restrictions that do not apply to North Side residences”.

While Mayor Johnson may support expanding the ADU pilot program and removing many of these onerous restrictions, he should probably tell his zoning chair. Alderman Walter Burnett is sympathetic to fellow City alders who are opposed to the program such as Madigan creature Marty Quinn. Quinn is an open opponent, decrying that these ADUs would threaten his “suburban haven”. Burnett to quote, “I’m trying to help out Marty Quinn… Every ward is different”. So we have established that Burnett is a proponent of aldermanic prerogative and now we see that he is actively accommodating people who want to ruin this ADU ordinance. This issue has been MIA since July! Where is the Mayor on this?

We need to pass this ordinance, which has sat untouched since it was delayed last summer. Approving more places for ADUs will create gentle density and the opportunity for cheaper housing options to come online for people only if we see the program through. That means removing all the restrictions previously listed and taking a proactive attitude, seeking out these kinds of barriers as they appear and eliminating them. “We don’t want to hurt anything with that”, how does renting your basement or turning your garage into a 700 sqft apartment hurt anyone, anywhere? This ADU fiasco is yet more evidence that Brandon Johnson isn’t interested in building more housing.

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On this day two years ago, Brandon Johnson was elected Mayor of Chicago. Much has happened since then. The migrant crisis came to a head, Donald Trump won the presidency and began an unprecedented attack on government, and Brandon Johnson’s administration has been roiled by crisis and controversy. In this upcoming set of articles, I will be looking at how Mayor Johnson’s 2nd year in office has gone. Starting first by looking at his fiscal policy and some controversial debt issuances. Mayor Johnson over the last year has passed 3 bond measures through the City Council totalling in value over $3 trillion. Two good, one highly problematic.

For those unfamiliar with the concept; government bodies can issue bonds, which are loans that the government pays back with interest, to finance long-term projects such as infrastructure. This is an age-old policy practice but obviously debt financed spending can become problematic. Look no further than the Illinois Sports Facilities Authority which finances the Chicago Bears and White Sox stadiums. First, yearly payments to service the ISFA debt has been rising and will surpass $90 million in 2032, crowding out other, more beneficial spending priorities. Second, all this debt went into no productive benefit for the community as a whole, all the benefit is captured by private ownership of these multi-billion dollar franchises. And last, the high debt levels coupled with weak projected tax returns worsens a government’s or agency’s credit rating making it more expensive to get a loan in the future.

Using these pitfalls, we shall analyze Brandon Johnson’s recent fiscal moves.

Good Debt Decisions

The 2025 Chicago budget was cobbled together with shoestrings and duct tape. Barely managing to get passed before its deadline, the 2025 Chicago City budget required the City to issue $1.5 billion in new bonds. This helped the City reduce debt costs by $70 million, which was necessary to deliver a balanced budget. You could compare this to consolidating your credit card debt with a lower interest loan. We can consider this a “good debt” decision. Lowering yearly costs, is a productive use of debt, and something which credit agencies would look upon favorably.

Another “good debt” decision was the $1.25 billion Housing and Economic Development Bond. A five year, $250 million per year bond sale, paid for by expiring TIF funds. This would fund a wide variety of programs including money for new housing and grants for job training and small businesses. The vast majority of this new debt will go towards existing programs, which is a positive. Establishing something new is always more expensive and risky than improving something that exists. This program received wide support from the City Council, which has typically been quite antagonistic to Johnson’s administration throughout his 2 years in office. However, some challenges persist that those familiar with my state capacity articles will instantly spot. More on that later.

The real reason why this development bond is such a good choice for the City is because it finally moves us past the old TIF development model. Illinois generally, and Chicago specifically, has long loved Tax Increment Financing (TIF). Chicago has a record number of these, 160 of which were established during Daley the Younger’s time in office. Here’s how they work. The local government marks an area and freezes the amount of tax revenue that area sends to the general fund. As property values increase, and thus property tax revenue, this new money is set aside for projects exclusively within the TIF district. This can promote and stimulate local development but it has very obvious drawbacks. First, the money for improvements only materializes if property values significantly increase. Which means that in economically depressed areas or simply slow growing ones, the TIF is largely ineffective. Second, the development is unequal. To put it plainly, TIFs make the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Property values go up as demand goes up leading to new investments. This new investment in turn promotes higher demand and in turn higher property values, creating a virtuous cycle. This can be good but is also a major vehicle for gentrification. Last to mention, TIFs deprive the broader community of money. As growing revenue is captured in these high value zones, entities that rely on property tax revenue such as the public school system are left with less. In Chicago, it is estimated that up to $1.5 billion in money that otherwise would’ve gone to CPS from property taxes is currently locked away in these TIFs. By paying off this development bond with expiring TIFs, Chicago moves back to more broad based public investment strategies while also incurring very little new debt service for its yearly budget.

These two “good debt” decisions will make Chicago’s finances more flexible, are investments into productive economic activity, and have the potential to improve the City’s credit rating through growth and smart financial management. But this isn’t the only debt financed spending Mayor Johnson has embarked upon.

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Question 1 from Ian. Ian asked how to get more involved in politics and get more informed about Illinois politics! Great question. First, if you live in Chicagoland, make sure you check out Operation Swing State. By the time you read this, the Wisconsin State Supreme Court election will have likely already occurred but this organization has been sending volunteers up to Milwaukee and elsewhere and will be doing so again this coming midterm. Another great Chicago area housing organization called Abundant Housing Illinois, which organizes to support housing development in the city of Chicago. Commuters Take Action and other transit aligned organizations are also worth your involvement. And I’m sure you have heard this before but if you are interested in working in politics like I am, the most common advice I have received is to volunteer in person and make yourself useful, consistently.

Great ways to stay informed about Illinois politics would include reading the Illinois Playbook by Shia Kapos, reading Rich Miller’s Capitolfax blog, and following and supporting Illinois-centric media such as the Chicago Sun-Times, Chicago Tribune, and Block Club Chicago. Also support your local newspapers, NPR and PBS stations, and content creators! Follow A City that Works, ChiStreetsBlog, or me! As a reminder, for the low, low price of $5 a month or $80 a year, you can support Politically_Illinois and help grow this blog. By the way, if you, dear reader, know anyone who is looking for campaign staff, volunteers, or related political workers, feel free to shoot them my email politicallyillinois@gmail.com!

Question 2 from Jacob is a two parter! First, Will the city of Chicago be placed under receivership by the Illinois government? And second, could Pritzker use this when he runs for president if he helps get Chicago on track financially? Great set of questions. Recently, though with minimal chance to pass, a bill was introduced for Illinois to take control of Chicago Public Schools. While I’m skeptical this is anything more than a media ploy, the City’s finances have been the talk of Springfield. CPS isn’t the only Chicago institution facing a budget crisis, the CTA is as well. The City itself is on shaky financial ground with a worsening debt load and growing pension obligations. I don’t think the State will step in or that Chicago will suffer the same fate as New York City did in the 1970s. Presently, Mayor Brandon Johnson seems content to pump his public employee union allies with money and add more debt to the city for pork projects. What if instead we had a mayor who was interested in modernizing Chicago’s governance, improving transit, and getting more housing built in the City? A fantasy, of course.

As for what will JB Pritzker make of Chicago finances as he runs for the Presidency? I think he has enough public statements to show his generalized dissatisfaction with Chicago leadership, particularly that of Brandon Johnson. I do think that he will make a lot of noise about how he has consistently balanced the Illinois budget and received numerous credit upgrades. While this is all good, these credit upgrades are largely recoveries from the Rauner induced budget crisis of the mid-2010s. The unfunded pension liability is still greater than $100 billion and has largely gone unaddressed outside statutorily required contributions plus a few hundred million in credit rating sweetening bonus payments. What does this mean? Illinois has made great progress moving past the last 25+ years of fiscal mismanagement but it still has a ways to go.

Dwelling on Some Discourse too Short for an Article.

A frequent discussion I see both in established mainstream media and online is what should Democrats do next? Some call for a renewed focus on a broadly popular economic agenda and jettisoning any focus or mention of things determined to be “social or cultural” issues. This group, let’s call them the Bread & Butter caucus or B&Bers for short, are divided into a left wing, class-first approach mirroring the likes of Bernie Sanders and a more centrist coded triangulation approach. For the left wing faction, the attacks on immigrants or trans people are attempts to “divide and conquer” the working class and the response is to expose those lies and hammer hard on popular, progressive economic program. The centrist crowd wants to chase the polls which indicate that trans rights, immigration, DEI, etc. are unpopular with swing voters and Obama-Trump voters. They recommend that we need to triangulate on those social issues and focus instead on “kitchen table issues”.

I have a problem with the B&Bers. The primary motivators of Trump’s coalition are very obviously cultural and social issues. Immigration, crime, “wokeness” and other forms of cultural progressivism are the primary talking points on Republican advertisements and from the mouths of voters. What do you see the GOP talk about when they have the nation’s attention? Anger at “late term abortions”, “soft on crime and immigration” policy, and “radical wokeness”. Only occasionally do they default back to the pro-business economic program and they do so with far less specifics and gusto than their culture warring. If you disagree, by all means go to social media or Fox and simply observe. To make a completely speculative take, when Trump supporters mention the economy as a reason they vote for him, they are really trying to communicate “the economy is best when the government favors business”, not an analysis of under which party generates the most jobs or whatever. It's less about real life economic statistics and more about the myth of a government led by business owners finally cutting the BS and “making America great again”. Inflation, too, is of course anguish at higher prices but also a judgement of Democratic mismanagement. The idea that inflation is caused by government spending is a common talking point amongst the GOP. So attempts to triangulate by centrist types are a fool's errand, they’re chasing the wrong thing! Trump voters think the cure to inflation is slashing government! And centrists are also the first to fight against popular economic programs like hiking the federal minimum wage or subsidized childcare.

Meanwhile the left winger seems to think that the “divide and conquer”, bigoted rhetoric is a trick that can be somehow ignored or is not the primary draw for most of his voters. To paraphrase a social media post, Trumpers want more deference and thank you’s from liberals, not a higher paycheck. They want a conservative, homogenous culture that is explicitly antithetical to progressive values. They live vicariously through administration figures and revel in the nakedly evil imagery Trump & Co. produce. To think that all that is a trick is to adopt a “noble savage” view of Trump voters. They are actually sincerely conservative, much like Trump himself!

An economic program that is good for the nation and is popular is a prerequisite for a national campaign. But the idea that by adopting some new laundry list of “kitchen table” issues is going to win back the upper Midwest is foolish. Inflation was at record highs when we stomped Republicans in 2022. Public opinion is not a fixed thing, it is shaped by elites, media, and everyday people. My view? Turnout, persuasion where possible, and information warfare is the name of the game now. Get Democrats out to vote, get the soft Trump voters and independents where you can, and pump Democratic messaging as effectively and widely as possible. All the popular stances in the world are meaningless if no one hears about them. This requires organizing and building completely new media infrastructures which will take time and money. If I were JB, that’s what I would be thinking about over the next 3 years as he prepares for his run.

I’ll see you in the next one.

A frequent subject of this newsletter has been State Capacity. The ability of the government to accomplish its own objectives, at projected cost, on time. Some of my recent articles have delved into how the 2nd Trump administration is deliberately destroying this capacity. In this article, however, I wanted to draw our attention back to Illinois and look at how our own state government struggles to build despite a Governor and a Legislature eager to do so. Multiple articles have recently came out detailing how the CTA Red Line Extension project and the Governor’s Rebuild Illinois infrastructure program are overbudget and stalling making this issue even more relevant.

The solution to these above crises would require the government to add new staff, increase government operations budgets, and move faster. All of these things are highly political and in many ways against the vision both parties have for the United States. As all of you are well aware, these are explicitly the opposite goals of the GOP; both federally and inside Illinois. Democrats conversely have been shedding their former Clintonite “The Era of Big Government is Over” style but have yet to truly settle on a new consensus. In this piece I also wanted to take a look at this struggle to build in Illinois and then delve into that Democratic divide before exploring the broader societal divide on the role of government and how that affects state capacity.

The Struggle to Build in Illinois

First, in Capitol News Illinois, the college renovation and construction portion of Governor Pritzker’s 2019 Rebuild Illinois infrastructure bill have run aground. According to the article, half of the 16 projects launched are stalled. Not only that, the total deferred maintenance bill across Illinois Higher Education is more than $8 billion. What is to blame? For the delayed construction, understaffing at the state’s Capital Development Board destroyed Illinois’ ability to evaluate and manage these enormous capital projects. And this mismanagement of capital funds is why new construction is favored over needed renovation.

A lack of staff and capital budget mismanagement really is our story here. When we look back at transit, the same exact story is played out. As described in City That Works, Metra spent 15 years and $28 million to build a simple infill station. This far exceeded the initial budget and timeline because Metra had to outsource expensive professional services. These include engineering, design, and conducting various impact studies. Additionally, Metra didn’t have the authority to compel relevant agencies and stakeholders (in this case the Chicago Water Department and Union Pacific) to contribute input and move on time. A similar story of budget overruns due to outsourced professional services and capital budget mismanagement is behind the recent delays and cost overruns of the CTA Red Line Extension. To emphasize: 85% of the cost overrun comes from professional services. It is especially galling in the CTA story given that these multiple billions of new debt could’ve been used to repair existing L track, of which 30% in need of serious repair totaling multiple billions.

But staffing the government, making the government more powerful, and reforming these agencies to use more cost-saving cookie cutter designs will require political action. Political action which will have to overcome a brewing Democratic civil war and longstanding public skepticism.

Democrats in Disarray

Perhaps I am overstating the case. Most of these intra-Democratic debates can be really surmised, “someone posted an opinion piece and then someone else posted another one disagreeing”. Let me clue the uninformed reader in. Popular and influential liberal writers Derek Thompson and Ezra Klein recently released the book Abundance, largely formalizing the content found on their respective articles, blogs, and podcasts. Namely, certain government regulations need to be removed to allow both the public and private sector to build solar/wind power plants, new housing, and new infrastructure, faster. This idea has been bumping around for sometime, this book is part of a growing YIMBY political ecosystem that stretches back now more than a decade. A movement that I am broadly sympathetic to.

Opposing this are two different factions from the left and center. From the left, a recent set of articles from the Washington Monthly forms a good example. The left wing, anti-abundance argument, as best as I can tell, is a sort of distrust and disappointment. Distrust in the political players behind Abundance, that they are simply a front for property developers, Silicon Valley, or perhaps a secret trojan horse of supply-side Reaganites trying to seize the party. The other half is a disappointment that the agenda isn’t nearly as anti-capitalist as they are. For instance, in the previously cited Washington Monthly article, “Abundance liberals have little to say about homebuilder consolidation—or about the broader problem of growing corporate monopolization, as we’ll see”. A similar skepticism towards abundance liberals on building up the bureaucracy is also raised. But these arguments are thin. If you read these 4 articles, the authors seem hyperfixated on abundance liberals being “somewhat quiet” on XYZ or how they “need to plan bigger”. Give me a break.

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Wow. This 2nd Trump administration is a complete and total nightmare. Every element of the last term: corruption, moronic statements, illegal unenforceable executive orders, and straight up evil policymaking have been cranked to 11. Trump makes equally asinine as menacing comments; proclaiming himself king and backs it up by kidnapping people and sending them to foreign gulags run by crypto hustlers. He illegally shuts down departments and programs authorized by Congress and illegally fires critical employees. Infrastructure projects and grants, already in motion, cancelled or delayed. Just recently, newly launched investigations and disruption at opposition aligned platforms akin to all the right wing hybrid regimes Trump & Co. ape. It’s unprecedented devastation.

I hate this. It feels like the very fabric of our country is tearing apart and no one in power seems to care or be capable of stopping it. Those who are sounding the alarm, trying to fight this have been left powerless by Democratic leaders who cannot articulate a solution to this.

There was a moment when Democrats could have seriously put up resistance to Trump. House Democrats had a plan to shut down the government to force the Trump administration to bargain. They held firm but were betrayed at the last moment by 10 Democratic Senators, led by Senate Leaders Chuck Schumer and Dick Durbin. These Senators cited that during a shutdown the President would gain new found authority to layoff even more and cut even more. However, they never answer what provision or how that works. As pointed out in the blog Off the Line, the entire argument these defectors make is bogus. Not only that, the President has demonstrated he is more than happy to act illegally to fire people and cut programs and is increasingly trying to disobey court orders to stop. Even the federal employees' unions endorsed a shutdown!

To give this rant some structure, there are 4 big areas I am most concerned about. The Constitutional Crisis, destroying government programs that work fine, the naked robbery we are witnessing by Trump & Co., and the betrayal of all our allies to the benefit of China and Russia.

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The Constitutional Crisis

I defer to smarter writers here to give better arguments. In particular, Jamelle Bouie’s recent column in the New York Times,

“The president and his de facto co-president, Elon Musk, have unleashed the so-called Department of Government Efficiency to slash the federal work force and unravel entire agencies such as the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Department of Education. But the 1883 Pendleton Act, establishing the federal civil service, is a law. The 1979 Department of Education Organization Act, establishing the titular agency, is a law. The Foreign Affairs Reform and Restructuring Act of 1998, which established U.S.A.I.D. as its own agency, is a law. And it is a fundamental rule of American constitutional government that the only force that can invalidate an act of Congress, other than a ruling of the Supreme Court, is another act of Congress.

To assert, against the plain text of the Constitution, the power to seize appropriations and destroy the work of the legislature is to break a core premise of constitutionalism. It is anti-constitutional.”

All the while, behind the cuts, court order shenanigans, and the daily inane executive orders: Trump & Co. make the assertion that since Trump won 49.9% of the vote, he is entitled to break the law. You should take seriously the idea that the current GOP consensus is a sort of Americanized Fascism. A dictatorship on behalf of the people, legitimized by social media applause-o-meter, “setting things right” regardless of whatever the corrupt and failing laws of old say.

Oh and one more thing: always keep in mind Mahmoud Khalil and those deported to El Salvador. I turn to John Ganz, writer of the sublime Unpopular Front, for wiser words than my own:

“Here’s the most important thing about this whole affair: The state cannot make it up as it goes along. It can’t seize people in the night and invent flimsy pretexts later. And if it does, then we no longer live under the rule of law, we live in a police state. Don’t kid yourself: They will not stop at non-citizens. Trump threatened that Khalil’s arrest would be “the first arrest of many to come.” Khalil is a soft target: a “foreigner” who is part of a controversial political movement on an Ivy League campus. Unfortunately, he might not get a ton of public support for these reasons, but whatever one’s beliefs or reservations about his specific politics or activism, it’s absolutely vital to insist on due process and Constitutional rights. This goes far beyond any specific movement or political group. We’re talking about our basic freedoms now.”

Breaking Stuff that Worked Just Fine

Trump is trying to break the Post Office, again. 10,000 laid off and worse to come. And Trump is sabotaging more things in this new administration. A very stupid one was cuts to tax help centers… during tax season. This is alongside cutting the recent IRS expansion which produced shorter wait times and collected far more money than dollar budgeted.

It doesn’t end there. Social Security is in jeopardy of missing payments. New changes are coming that will dramatically worsen customer service and valid recipients are already seeing money being taken from their accounts. I expect them to totally sabotage and destroy Social Security, something that Elon Musk has made a special target. Trying to destroy Social Security sank George Bush’s 2nd term early, much like how failing to repeal the ACA shipwrecked the 1st Trump administration. But while those were legislative efforts, this is an inside job. Regardless of how you feel about the politics of Social Security, the actual day-to-day operation side of the program was perfectly fine before DOGE got its grubby hands on it.

Last, I’ll mention they’re trying to break the weather service, too. Don’t worry, I’m sure some politically juiced in Silicon Valley tech company will have the privatized alternative that doesn’t fucking work.

They’re Robbing Us

Speaking of juiced in Silicon Valley freakshows, Elon Musk is looting our government. Whether it be trying to steer a multi-billion contract to his own companies or holding up loans for rival companies, Elon Musk is robbing you, the taxpayer. Musk is getting the President of the United States to cut car commercials on the White House lawn to help his companies freefalling stock price. On the subject of stocks, one may have noticed the extreme market volatility as of late. A conspiratorial minded reader could possibly think that Trump & Co. are deliberately announcing and retracting tariffs gaming the stock market with insider knowledge. The man takes multi-million direct payments to have dinner with him, he’ll do anything for money.

This of course leads me into the biggest robbery the administration is trying to pull off. While the last term’s tax cut bill was one of the most pointless wastes of money ever seen, making those cuts permanent will turn things from bad to worse. These tax cuts are going to be financed by enormous cuts in Medicaid, food aid, clean energy, and education. Taking from the poor and giving it to the rich. It’s disgusting. These must be opposed at all costs.

Ruining American Foreign Policy

The Zelensky Oval Office ambush & the betrayal of Ukraine are stuck in my mind as some of the stupidest and evilest things done in American foreign policy since the Iraq War. The Trump administration, to again quote from John Ganz, is seeking the political destruction of Zelensky. Remember, it was Zelensky who they were trying to extort for Hunter Biden dirt causing Trump’s first impeachment. And given Trump’s overwhelming Russophilia, the fact that Ukraine has survived for 3 years is irksome to him. He wants Ukraine to lose.

This stupidity and evil is only rivaled by the continued hostility towards Canada and the rest of NATO. The embarrassing, stupid, and shortsighted attacks on our allies is destroying the western alliance. Trump is doing the bidding of Russia and China by turning away from Europe and East Asia. One thing I hate are dumbasses like Marco Rubio who will say out loud, “we’re trying to split Russia and China” like it's a video game. The Sino-Soviet split was produced by very specific circumstances that have been long since resolved! Or the idiots who want to drive us into a protracted low-scale insurgency in Central America. Moronic conservative policymakers and leaders are convinced they can swoop into Mexico or wherever and wipe out the cartels with precision airstrikes and special forces. These people are trying to make Tom Clancy and Sicario real. I could go on. They ruin America’s reputation and are wrecking the Armed Forces, what else is there to say?

Conclusion

Before I go, a few final words. First, I am still somehow shocked at how stupidly, brazenly racist this administration has been. The latest: deleting DoD pages about the Navajo Code Talkers and Jackie Robinson for being “DEI”. They’ll purge all mention of non-white people in American history by years end if they can. Second, Illinois and Chicago posting will resume in the coming weeks. It’s hard to write about that while so much awful stuff is happening nationally.

Third, want to do something? Join me this Saturday with Operation Swing State. We will be heading north to Milwaukee to canvas for the upcoming Wisconsin State Supreme Court election. Don’t worry, carpooling is available and there are multiple gathering points throughout Chicagoland. Turn some of this anxiety into action. Can’t join us? Vote in your upcoming Spring municipal election, then! Also consider becoming a paying subscriber to help support my political endeavors!

I’ll see you in the next one.

We are now 2 months into the 104th Illinois General Assembly and we are no closer to a consensus on transit than we were a year ago. There are two competing transit bills currently introduced in the Illinois Legislature. This is producing factional infighting between Chicago and suburban Democrats, organized labor and reformers. Outside this simmering Democratic civil war, anti-transit and anti-reform elements coupled with a tight budget situation jeopardize all action. Much ink has been spilled on the issue and the common themes seem to be these: there are practical challenges and there are political challenges which are both intertwined.

For those unfamiliar with the situation, Chicagoland’s 4 transit agencies, RTA, Metra, Pace, and the CTA, are facing a combined deficit of $770 million. Metra and Pace provide suburban rail and bus service respectively while the CTA serves Chicago and the numerous suburbs directly bordering it. The RTA, or Regional Transportation Authority, is supposed to coordinate service between these 3 agencies but is largely useless. The principal drivers of the deficit are the withdrawal of COVID pandemic relief money and the slow return of ridership. Ridership has been slow to recovery for a multitude of factors. Work from Home, crime concerns, and dirtiness are all frequently cited by former riders or would-be riders as to why they no longer use transit. But work from home and crime exist elsewhere that have had better transit recoveries, our slow recovery falls on failed, apathetic leadership on top of neglect from the government.

This is a must-complete priority for this session. Nearly 75% of the State’s economic activity and 60% of the population are covered by these service areas. If this deficit isn’t solved, there are potentially 40% service cuts on the line. Illinois’ jobs, economy, and quality of life is at stake. IL Democrats love to trumpet climate issues, transportation is the 2nd largest source of CO2 emissions in the State. Getting more people on transit is not only an economic issue, pocketbook issue, and job issue: it’s a climate issue as well.

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MMA vs. Empowered RTA: The Great Debate

The Metropolitan Mobility Authority (MMA) would be created by SB005 and was introduced by Senator Ram Villavalam. It would merge Metra, Pace, CTA, and the RTA and is coupled with numerous other reforms. Why a merger? These 4 boards are some of the juiciest pieces of political spoils Illinois has left. Block Club found that only 3 of the last 50 appointees over the last 40 years of the CTA had any transportation expertise at all. A similar story would likely play out if you investigated Pace, Metra, or the RTA. These are 45 5-figure, no work jobs available to the Governor, Mayor, and the various County officials in both Cook and the Collars. Reformers have been adamant that changing the governance structure is the key to reform. In fact, Rep. Rita Mayfield in a recent transportation committee hearing said, “I think that we need to blow up the RTA, totally blow it up, get rid of everyone, because again, systemic incompetence for the last 50 years... Anybody in a leadership position needs to be removed”. A hardline has been drawn: no new money unless it's accompanied by governance reforms.

Standing opposite of this proposal, also introduced by Senator Villavalam strangely enough, is SB1938. This RTA empowerment proposal is backed by organized labor and is friendlier to existing interests in the system. Rather than completely remaking the system, the plan would enable the RTA to be able to withhold 10% of the Pace, Metra, or the CTA’s budget in order to coax reform and cooperation. It also proposes a new security force for the entire system, new minimum qualifications for board appointees, and it also calls for the same funding increase as the MMA plan - $1.5 billion. This proposal is flawed. The proposed security force would simply be another layer on top of the system, as Metra has its own police force. The RTA already has oversight power over the budgets of the 3 agencies. And this new system also doesn’t expel the current unqualified board members, either.

While both MMA and RTA empowerment proponents agree on a couple key points, these surface level agreements mask substantial practical and political challenges to reform.

Practical Concerns Facing the MMA

It’s important for transit-friendly readers to recognize that the MMA proposal isn’t the end of discussion. MMA faces numerous, practical concerns. Practical in this context meaning issues that are more fundamental than “group A disagrees with group B”. An illustrative example: who actually owns and operates Metra? Metra doesn’t fully own all the track its trains run on nor does it employ all the people operating those trains. Other rail companies, BNSF and Canadian Pacific, own some of the tracks and employ the conductors and engineers who operate those lines. It would require federal intervention to resolve an impossibility with this current regime. Speaking of the employees, the labor coalition raises an excellent point. The 3 agencies have different unions with separate collective bargaining agreements. Merging these transit agencies would require renegotiation that neither side has an appetite for.

The MMA would also create a majority rule board, as opposed to the supermajority rule RTA. Under the current model, the collar county appointees can block investment in Cook county and any one of the agency's friendlies on the board can kill reform measures. But the new majority rule system would create a situation where a supermajority of overall ridership in the regional system comes from the CTA while the majority of the board comes from the suburbs. Would this new regional agency lose focus from where its ridership is? Skepticism is warranted. That’s already an issue in New York. In a transit governance study conducted by Eno Transportation Center, “In the case of the MTA board, suburban areas are disproportionately represented compared to urban areas relative to their ridership levels. This creates a tendency to overinvest in suburban capital projects… while underinvesting in city infrastructure”. The study itself also is more cautious that regional transit management cures cost issues or promotes better service for users.

The State is facing a budget crunch. Where can you find the money for more than a billion in new spending this year, or any year? Especially since the proposed merger’s overhead savings are theoretical. The Chicago Civic Federation found that potential savings could be as high as $300 million but haven’t explained the specifics or released their analysis yet.

Political Challenges facing the MMA

Organized labor are the chief backers of the RTA empowerment proposal. While I respect and support unions, this represents a major roadblock to transit reform. This is because one of the key groups behind the MMA is the Illinois Clean Jobs Coalition, which rhetorically bearhugs unions. This infighting endangers the entire Labor-Climate fusion Illinois Democrats have been working to build. This infighting is worsened by the quite frankly nonsensical counter arguments offered by organized labor. Recently, Chicago Federation of Labor President Bob Reiter made the baffling remark, “When you concentrate power into a few people, you take away constituents’ ability to access government, that’s why we have representative government … it promotes more democracy”. This is a statement with no grounding in reality whatsoever. Has the President seen the organization chart of the 4 agencies that will be merged? What democratic accountability or accessibility does he think exists now? This remark is nothing more than buzzwords and non-sequiturs.

There is also the political pushback from suburbanites who believe that funding and control over their systems will be given away to Chicago. Suburban Republican Senator Don DeWitte stated, “the suburbs will get steamrollered in that process… I think the last thing anybody in the suburbs needs is the city of Chicago or Cook County collectively deciding what residents of Kane County or DuPage County or Will or McHenry counties are going to be paying for Metra fares”. This is quite ironic given the previous section: the supermajority of regional riders are Chicagoans or destined for Chicago but the governing majority of the new MMA board will be from the suburbs! The anti-merger suburban dynamic can also be found amongst Democrats. Senator Laura Murphy recently spoke against SB1938 and implicitly against SB0005 stating, “When you withhold money from the service boards, it’s going to have an impact on the ridership”. That’s the point! The money is the carrot, the retraction is the stick. You can’t get reform without both! It seems like many politicians are misinformed as to the purpose of the proposal or even how it works.

The last political concern to mention is that the numerous different funding mechanisms of the 3 different systems are controlled by many different entities: Illinois State, the counties, and Chicago. Chicago has been able to fund numerous modernization and expansion projects with Chicago TIF funds that they would be reluctant to share with their suburban peers echoing the same attitude. But this only reinforces the necessity for regional management. Why are we competing against each other when we know so many riders from Pace and Metra transfer to CTA and the CTA services so many suburbs?

Conclusion

The argument for the MMA is strong. Saving Chicagoland transit is good for the economy, good for lowering the cost of living, and good for the climate. We need new leadership and only a merger can produce that. Only a merger would allow for better capital grant acquisition and the size necessary to develop cost-saving, in-house staff.

Before I close, I shouldn’t forget that many areas of downstate Illinois have independent transit agencies that need support or investment. Danville, Peoria, Bloomington-Normal, Springfield, and most of the college towns have some kind of bus service. Reporting constantly mentions a hands off, disengaged attitude from non-Chicagoland electeds. Perhaps not this year but eventually a statewide transit investment and reform program could unite both Chicagoland and downstate.

I’ll see you in the next one.

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Let me come right out and say it: I am quite upset with Democratic leadership in Congress. Trump has illegally seized power to veto laws and direct spending as he pleases while ignoring every court order to stop. Without question we are in a constitutional crisis. Someone should tell Democrats in Washington. The mere fact that Senate Democrats barely jammed up Trump’s cabinet selection is reason enough to be mad before you look at how many voted yes on his nominees. On the House side, things are hardly better. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has been pirouetting between meek opposition and playing dead. They all seem worthless and flat-footed.

Dick Durbin is a particular target of my dissatisfaction. Serving in the Senate for virtually my entire life, he has few accomplishments to his name despite two separate Democratic trifectas coming to pass during his time in office. Like his colleagues, he seems to be caught flat footed by Trump II. When asked who is leading the charge against Trump’s second term, Durbin replied, “I can’t answer that. Give us a little time… This is brand new”. Brand new? What on earth? Trump has been on the national political scene coming on 10 years, this is his second term for Christ’s sake! It’s time for a change in 2026. Even if he doesn’t retire, someone needs to primary him.

There is a growing list of Illinois notables who could have a serious shot at winning the Senate seat this coming midterm. Like all people under 30, I enjoy ranking things in tier lists. So here are my March 2025 power rankings for next year’s IL Senate race.

A Preamble About my Process and the List

I first preselected candidates through several factors. The office they hold, fundraising capability, name recognition, and other bonafides. I then divided that list up into 3 tiers: A, B, and C. A tier candidates have demonstrated ambition, name recognition, money advantages, and connections. B tier candidates have some of these features but to a lesser degree. C tier candidates are long shots and dark horses who have more a theoretical case than a realistic one.

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Alyssa asks: Will Pritzker run again in ‘26?

Great question! First, we have to consider the context. Pritzker would be running for a somewhat unprecedented third term. Recent Illinois gubernatorial history has been quite grim. Two governors in a row who went to jail for their crimes in office followed by back to back unpopular and ineffectual leaders. Pritzker on the other hand has been modestly popular throughout his term and very popular amongst Illinois Democrats. He has also been effective, passing legislation in virtually every area a Democratic presidential primary voter would care about. Pritzker has long held national ambition. I once heard speculation that had Hillary Clinton won in 2016, Pritzker would’ve been Secretary of Commerce. He was also vetted quite publicly for the Vice Presidential nod in 2024. He will be running for President in 2028, that is almost guaranteed. He has many options to advance himself, including the likely open Senate seat in 2026. So will he be better served by being a Senator, staying as Governor, or leaving office to run full time? I believe the answer to that question will determine whether he runs again or not. In my personal opinion, his presidential ambition is best served by getting a third term as Governor. There is little to gain by joining that sewer of learned helplessness they call the Senate for barely a month before you have to announce you’re running. The 2028 primary will almost certainly start in Spring 2027. Recall how Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders announced their 2020 campaigns in February 2019 and the rest of the serious candidates had launched by mid April. Plus staying in office is insurance in case you lose so that you’re not just some bum ex-elected on the TV talking head circuit.

Alyssa also asks: Are Democrats getting the message that their constituents want more from them in the resistance against Trump?

I don’t think initially many were but a few are starting to get the memo. In the wake of the 2024 loss, standard political thinking would be that the party that lost needs to reflect to figure out why. This isn’t currently possible. President Trump says he is above the law, Vance is threatening to ignore court orders, and his supporters are throwing Nazi salutes. He has illegally shut down USAID, ending PEPFAR, a decision which will kill millions globally from AIDS. He has illegally cut funding to numerous vital programs, precipitated the worst US airline safety crisis in a generation, and has initiated a disastrous politicization of the Armed Forces. So where is the strategic reserve? Democratic leadership today seems paralyzed with indecision, lost in a state of shock, and the broader media landscape has been saturated by Republican narratives. We have no Women’s March. Democratic voters, however, are still quite furious. Analysis on the excellent blog Split-Ticket noted that Democratic voters are angrier at their leaders than Republican voters were just before the Tea Party wave of 2010. Some leaders have turned up the dial in response but many are either too wimpy or too old. Pritzker during his State of the State address made multiple references to the Nazis and the fall of the Weimar Republic. He seems to be demonstrating the fighting spirit we all want. I welcome primaries for all the Democrats who aren’t fighting like hell, particularly Senators. I’ve been gravely disappointed at all the Senate Democrats voting for Trump nominees. Shameful!

George asks: What is happening to the transit merger proposal right now?

Unfortunately, the merger bill has run into more and more opposition. Naturally, suburban groups interested in protecting their local fiefdoms and cache of patronage appointed board roles have lobbied suburban Democrats into stiffening opposition. This is bipartisan and grounded in a modicum of practical concern, namely that the suburban areas won’t have as much say on where the taxes collected in their jurisdiction go. A counterproposal from organized labor has also emerged. The labor proposal wouldn’t merge the 4 agencies but would instead empower the Regional Transit Authority (RTA), which oversees Pace, Metra, and the CTA, to better discipline and reform these 3 agencies. It would establish a unified security force through the RTA and set higher standards for board members. This compromise would thus try to meet the demand for the 3 Chicagoland transit agencies to reform and have their boards be more competent and qualified without fully unifying the entire system under 1 banner or committing to the full investment. Given the preeminent role these unions have in both the internal politics and external rhetoric of the IL Dems, I expect that this proposal will become the basis of what eventually emerges come end of session in May.

Sarah asks: Why is Illinois so annoying politically, or is this an everywhere problem?

Illinois is certainly annoying politically. It is a difficult state to pass legislation in, with numerous veto points in the legislature where a singular individual can kill bills on a whim. It has a complicated rats’ nest of different government authorities which produces waste, fraud, and patronage jobs for unqualified loyalists. Its bureaucracy is deeply understaffed and weak, crippling the ability of the government to execute. There are endless ripoff public-private partnerships produced out of our long history of corruption. Lastly, Illinois is frequently locked in a self destructive conflict between Chicago and and the rest of the State.

We can’t discount that for almost the last 40 years the State has been partially governed by a now convicted felon: Mike Madigan. His personalist rule meant that Illinois was governed for narrow special interests. An example of this kind of narrow interest: Madigan led the creation of the Sports Facilities Authority Illinois, which gave away billions to build stadiums which are dragging us down with bad debt for little in return. We are not particularly unique, in fact many other big population blue states could be compared to us. New Jersey is the closest; where machine politics long reigned and an unfunded pension liability hangs over the budget like the Sword of Damocles. Solving this problem is going to be a prerequisite in my opinion for any broader national reform agenda, both to earn credibility and to learn the lessons needed to actually fix things.

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As the weeks have gone by since Donald Trump’s 2nd inauguration, we are left in a state of shock and chaos. Erratic, illegal, and oftentimes completely insane executive orders have been issued forth by this mad king. It is a Constitutional crisis. Article 1 powers of Congress are being usurped, with our President in effect wielding a line-item veto and seizing the power of the purse. By unilaterally cancelling spending already appropriated by Congress, by unilaterally shutting down departments and programs authorized by Congress; Trump is attacking the foundations of American government. Make no mistake, this is an existential crisis for our Republic.

This couldn’t have come at a worse time for the State of Illinois. Nearly 15% of the State’s operating budget comes from the federal government, that’s $18.5 billion! Illinois is in a precariously tight budget year this year, federal spending cuts will only spell disaster. Additionally, the State and the City of Chicago are being sued by the federal government for its Sanctuary laws. Given the actions of the Trump administration elsewhere, exacting retribution is the only thing I can expect from them.

What does this mean for Illinois and you? Why are they doing this? What is their end goal? All questions I will try and answer by the end of the article.

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How This Impacts Illinois

The impacts on Illinois were immediate. For a short period, States were locked out of the Medicaid’s federal payments portal, including Illinois. A prelude to the massive Medicaid cuts being proposed by the Republican majority? As previously stated, the federal government is the single largest employer in the State. Cuts to the federal workforce will harm Illinois’ already laggard labor market. What is especially outrageous about all these cuts is how deeply asshole boss it all screams. Elon Musk’s various enterprises had long been dogged by both legal investigations into workplace abuse and horror stories from ex-employees of brutally long hours and capricious, vicious management. Given the leaks, social media comments, and testimony from fired employees; Musk is simply recreating this toxic management style over the entire federal government.

An underdiscussed story in all of this is how Musk is using the federal government to smash his electric car rivals. Rivian, who has an enormous plant in my home town employing nearly 9,000 people, including members of my family, has had a $6.6 billion loan “put on hold” by the Trump administration. This is all coming at the same time the company is finally posting a profit. This is obvious to anyone who isn’t an idiot: Musk is using the government to quash rivals and make more money. Illinois is the home to many electric vehicle plants, battery plants, and related manufacturers. Trump’s numerous attacks on the EV industry will mean that both the private and public sector are losing jobs. Again, I truly believe they are steering the country to a recession to get interest rates lowered and discipline workers into accepting less. The right wing Silicon Valley - Wall Street axis that funds the Trump movement yearns for the eternal 2013: slack labor market and sub-1% interest rates.

Additionally, cuts have been made to the numerous scientific research institutions across the State. By closing USAID and making other cuts, a farm research laboratory at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign was closed; laying off 30 employees and jeopardizing critical work beneficial to the US agriculture industry. Shutting down global food aid programs have harmed farmers nationwide, including in Illinois. Trump has also just announced he is withholding nearly $2 billion, illegally I might add, from numerous Illinois agencies and programs. A figure which coincidentally matches this year’s increase in the state budget. Will further harassment follow as the government’s case against Illinois and Chicago’s sanctuary status continue? I keep mentioning it but the Chicago Red Line Extension project needs to be moving with haste before it suffers the fate of other federal infrastructure projects.

This administration also has pursued banning DEI initiatives wherever possible. Recently announced plans to improve Black student performance have already been challenged by proxies of Trump’s movement. By assaulting every means of addressing Black student achievement, Trump’s proxies manufacture the poor conditions that justify their draconian policy maneuvers. These policies are the tip of the spear for ideologically disciplining the education system with the threat of defunding it.

They’ve All Gone Mad, You See

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Editor’s Note: Hello Everyone, thanks for your continued readership. Please enjoy this monthly FREE article available to all subscribers. Please consider subscribing and catch weekly articles! Also, I plan on writing a free Q&A article in the near future, and hope to turn it into a regular feature. Please email your question to politicallyillinois@gmail.com!

The biggest event of the General Assembly so far: Governor Pritzker’s annual budget address. Once again, the Governor has proposed a balanced budget - somehow, someway wriggling out of a $3 billion budget deficit without raising taxes. This was achieved through increased estimates for tax collection and making some dramatic policy choices. The biggest of which is the cancellation of the Medicaid for Undocumented Immigrants program, ages 42-64. Equally as consequential, new transit funding was not included.

Pritzker drew a red line. He will only sign a balanced budget, if you want to add you must subtract. Of course, the Legislature will have something to say. Despite what Trump may be trying federally, we still have separation of powers. This is only the opening bid in a long set of negotiations. And these negotiations are already looking to be contentious. Opposition has arisen from the Black Caucus, Latino Caucus, and the GOP. And with substantial cuts to both federal funds and the federal workforce likely on the horizon, it looks like the budget situation will only become more difficult.

Let’s dig into Illinois FY2026 and break down the implications for the State and the political situation.

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What’s Here and What’s Not

Pritzker increased the State budget by approximately $2 billion, including making a $350 million statutory minimum contribution to education. The biggest areas of increase are in healthcare, pensions, and education. Spending outside these three areas only increased by 1%.

The Governor has eliminated the State’s Medicaid for Undocumented program for adults while preserving it for seniors. This was a major cut, more than $300 million in spending zeroed out. Governor Prizker’s own priorities took a hit as well. His highly touted Smart Start early-childhood development program had its budget kept flat, halting the expansion of desperately needed subsidized daycare slots. He also took money away from his signature 2019 infrastructure plan: $178 million in State Motor Fuel Sales Taxes won’t be transferred to the Road Fund as part of his non-tax raising revenue plan. Homeless programs which saw year to year increases during the pandemic spending boom will receive a $7.3 million decrease alongside huge cuts to migrant aid programs.

Transit funding is also missing. Not even money to paper over the 3 Chicagoland transit systems’ deficits. While the Governor’s office gave indication that it did want to find a solution to transit, I have to take the Governor at his word: new spending means new cuts. And where do you find $700+ million in cuts? This puts all of Chicagoland into jeopardy. It will drive down our standard of living as previously available services are slashed wholesale and traffic, already the worst in the nation, becomes even more snarled. It won’t just be job cuts punishing our economy, less frequent transit will punish workers who rely on transit to commute. Businesses, reliant on the foot traffic transit brings will dry up. And beneath all of this is the great irony of a Democratic leadership that will call climate change an existential threat while defunding one of the best ways to cut carbon emissions in Chicagoland. What a sick joke.

Why are we in such a tough spot?

In practical terms, for this year’s budget, the key is healthcare spending. Healthcare costs for the state are skyrocketing. Pritzker’s budget puts an extra $740 million towards this, down from an original estimate of $1.1 billion. This represents the largest category of increase, nearly double the next largest item: human services (read, pensions).

Bigger, more structural drivers of this crisis lurk beneath the surface. The Illinois pension crisis is fiscal problem 1a: an enormous unfunded liability exists in our combined state employee pension system north of $140 billion. Every year, a greater portion of the State budget must be taken up to feed this ever-growing black hole. The great difficulty in reforming this is threefold. First, public employees are a major interest group for Democrats which means any freezes or cuts are politically off limits. Second, the State’s Constitution prevents you from cutting or altering state employee pensions. And third, quite simply where is the money? Where do you get that much money without punishing across the board tax increases? The next Democratic president shouldn’t pursue universal healthcare or a new economic program; they should bailout the country’s many unfunded pensions.

Problem 1b is our sluggish economy and declining population. Illinois has lagged its Midwestern neighbors in economic growth and employment and as a result, Illinois has slow revenue growth. The primary sources of revenue for the State are the corporate, income, and sales taxes - all highly related to economic activity. So when growth is slow, the revenue needed to invest into education, improve infrastructure, and do whatever else a policymaker has a mind for won’t be there.

The problem isn’t just slow growth, it is also declining in population. High taxes, hotter job markets elsewhere, increasing housing costs, and an aging population all contribute to this situation and it makes the above economic problem worse. Fewer residents means a smaller economy which means less revenue and therefore mandatory austerity. We are stuck in this negative feedback loop and our leadership struggles to even articulate any meaningful solution.

This isn’t unsolvable, however. We can fix this by making deep, structural reforms to our State. Three big areas come to mind; taxation, municipal reform, and housing production. A tax solution I frequently propose is the land value tax to replace the property tax. It would moderate the burden the average homeowner faces, incentivize vacant lots to be put into use, and stop punishing development. Next, municipal governments need to be reformed to work faster and have their boundaries redrawn to better rationalize land use and tax burdens. These governments also need to approve more housing, in more places, faster. These are by no means easy things to accomplish nor are these proposals anywhere close to the consensus or detail necessary to make them a reality. Nevertheless, I know in my gut that this is possible.

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Trouble Ahead, Trouble Behind

Opposition to this budget is already fomenting. The Black Caucus staged a large demonstration in the State Capitol Rotunda, where several members announced that they would not support the administration’s budget after signaling a broad dissatisfaction with the document. The demands are nebulous in dollar terms but it is clear that further negotiations will have to be made with this important power center. The Latino Caucus also swiftly issued a denouncement of the Medicaid for Undocumented Adults program being zeroed out and migrant services being cut. However, the Latino Caucus is in a far weaker position. As previously declared, if you want to add you must cut. And this program was both unpopular and extremely expensive. It would be hard to imagine a scenario in which funding for both transit and services for illegal immigrants can be found without any tax increases.

The IL GOP is largely a speed bump in this whole process but from a federal level, the Republicans can do a lot of damage to this budget. We have already seen the White House take money already dispersed out of bank accounts of recipients. We have seen them cancel projects already signed off on and approved. If they unilaterally shut down agencies and shutdown ongoing federal infrastructure projects, who is to say the recent Chicago Red Line extension won’t get cut either? We know that they plan on significant and draconian cuts: education, Medicaid, food stamps, scientific research, the list is endless. This regime is also petty and erratic. Never forget that the federal government is the largest employer in Illinois, so with Chicago and Illinois in the sights of this administration I wouldn’t doubt targeted jobs or spending cuts that hurt us more are on the table. At the rate they’re firing federal workers and retracting money, I wouldn’t be surprised if these fascist freaks induced the country into a recession. Probably on purpose, to discipline workers and fetch lower interest rates. It can always be relied on that the GOP will act in the interest of the business class.

Conclusion

The Governor is politically committed to a balanced budget for many reasons. Prudent given the context but it undeniably places lawmakers in a tight spot. And with COVID aid long gone, we have to reconcile numerous beneficial programs with the age-old question: and where does the money come from?

Where oh where does the money come from? I keep asking myself this over and over again and I keep coming up with nothing. Until we get a real tax reform plan articulated and get the public to support raising taxes; so much will be left undone that must be done.

This was a rather dour article. Don’t lose hope. Don’t give up. Don’t tune out. Never forget, nothing in the political world is fixed and permanent. Illinois shall one day escape this financial mess and this country will cure itself of this evil administration.

I’ll see you in the next one.

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There are few individuals who possessed more individual power in the history of Illinois other than Mike Madigan. Speaker of the IL House for 36 years, he was the longest serving legislative leader in American history. The “Velvet Hammer” as he was referred to, has fallen. First, his ignominious exit from his post as Speaker and Representative in 2021 following a sexual harassment scandal inside his office. This ended his professional career. And now, he is a convicted felon. The verdict was announced mid-morning Wednesday, guilty on 10 of 23 counts. Ruined and routed, this is one of the most dramatic events in recent Illinois political history.

Madigan was a character from a bygone age. The last remnant of the old patronage system that once ruled Chicago, he rose up from his 13th ward Democratic political organization to be one of the most singularly powerful individuals in Illinois history. His electoral base wasn’t from a charisma or as an ideological crusader but on an organization that turned out voters like nobody’s business. I would highly encourage you to listen to the podcast series The Madigan Rule by the Better Government Association for a more complete biography.

But what really happened here? And what does it mean for Illinois going forward? Crucial questions to answer as we bask in the glow of justice served.

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A Multi-Headed Conspiracy

“Public Official A” as Madigan was referred to by the federal indictment, led a conspiracy that had many parts. One crucial pillar, Mike Madigan’s friends and associates would receive no-work, no-show jobs from various entities in exchange for passing legislation beneficial to those entities. The two big examples of this scheme were with ComEd and AT&T. In ComEd’s case, prosecutors revealed how the electric company agreed to give out jobs and internships to friends of Madigan in exchange for energy legislation ComEd needed to survive. The crucial intermediary of these interactions was Mike McClain. McClain was essentially Madigan’s enforcer, pursuing and shaking down whoever he needed to to get the job done. The ComEd portion of this trial was the first big reveal of the Madigan corruption empire. The “ComEd Four” as the media dubbed them, were a group of lobbyists and the CEO of the electric company who illegally bribed Madigan with jobs and law firm business. These four individuals were convicted in May 2023 and Madigan was found guilty of most charges related to the ComEd scheme. AT&T also participated in a similiar scheme. After a jury deadlocked on the AT&T case earlier last year, the telecom agreed to settle. In the settlement, AT&T paid a $23 million fine and admitted to hiring a friend of Madigan, former state Rep. Eddie Avecedo, to a $22,500 no-work job, which was exchanged for desired legislation. Unfortunately, the jury did not reach a verdict on Madigan’s AT&T charges.

But it wasn’t just no-work jobs that were exchanged for passing legislation.

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Editor’s Note: This is the first paid article I have published. Please enjoy the preview and subscribe to read the rest.

It’s an unavoidable issue: Illinois (and the country as a whole) is suffering from a housing shortage. The evidence is overwhelming, from academic reports to market information to personal experience: we are in a shortage. Illinois ranks at the bottom for Midwest housing production. Unsurprisingly, Illinois has become one of the most expensive states to buy a home in, a growing share of our residents are housing burdened, and our homeless population is climbing.

Yet despite a growing, almost universal consensus that Illinois faces a housing crisis, little has been done so far. But this may be changing soon. A group of Chicago area lawmakers have recently introduced a bill that would allow by-right development of “missing middle housing”, including duplexes, triplexes, and four flats. Of course with many nagging little caveats that water the bill down substantially. But it’s a start! So let’s dig into the bill and analyze the Illinois shortage.

Three Cheers and Three Jeers for HB1814

Once again, statewide upzoning legislation makes an appearance in the Illinois state legislature. Introduced by Rep. Bob Rita and co-sponsored by a number of pro-housing Chicagoland Democrats, the bill would allow anyone who owns a 5k square foot lot the right to build duplexes, triplexes, and four flat apartments without restriction from your local municipality. Cheer! This is a great step forward because it directly cuts away at the NIMBY veto points that block development. Jeer! You’re only allowed to do this on a lot greater than 5k square feet, meaning that the vast majority of residential lots will be ineligible for this. Cheer! This bill will apply to all municipalities over 25k in population plus duplexes will be allowed by-right in municipalities between 10k and 25k people. There are approximately 93 cities in Illinois with a population greater than 25k and more than 150 of the latter range. Jeer! Many of the most restrictive suburbs will be excluded from this given their bizarre municipal boundaries. Behold the municipal map of Cook County. There are Holy Roman Empires for those with the eyes to see. Cheer! Leadership seems to be taking an interest in this bill, which increases its chance of passing. Jeer! Far more significant upzoning measures are not included in this bill. The effects of its passage will likely be small unless things like parking minimums, renter bans, and more are completely abolished.

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If you want a TL; DR of the situation, enjoy this relevant Simpsons clip.

The Chicago Teachers Union has steadily risen in power since 2012, but are we now witnessing the fall? Mayor Brandon Johnson, a former school teacher and CTU organizer, was elected on the back of CTU’s organizing and fundraising muscle. With the capture of the mayor’s office, and thus the ability to select the entire Chicago School Board, this moment was supposed to be an unprecedented zenith of political power for the union. But that has not been the case.

First, the entire school board resigned after refusing to execute the politically motivated firing of Chicago Public School’s CEO, Pedro Martinez. A hastily assembled second board was able to fire him just before a third, hybrid elected board took office in January 2025. The new board is composed of 10 elected members, 3 of which were endorsed by the CTU, and 10 appointed by the Mayor, plus a Chair he selects. So the CTU can rely on approximately 14 yay’s for the next two years of this Board.

So with a Board supermajority and a friendly Mayor, why is CTU once again on the verge of a strike? The answer is the fiscal reality of Chicago. Chicago Public Schools are in a dire financial situation, with Pandemic aid running out after this fiscal year and the State’s evidence based funding formula far behind schedule. The CPS budget is projected to fall into a half billion dollar deficit starting next year and it’s only projected to grow. How will the unstoppable force of the CTU react to this fiscal reality? How will the public react to an April strike with Johnson’s approval ratings so low? What’s going to happen next?

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The Fiscal Situation

Here’s the full scope. According to a Chicago Civic Federation analysis of the present situation, “In total, the CTU’s proposed contract provisions would cost more than $1.8 billion in the first year and $9.2 billion over four years. CPS’ counter proposal would cost $205 million in the first year and $1.6 billion over four years". What drives this difference is staffing, programming, and capital investments. CTU wants to massively beef up the staffing situation at all neighborhood schools. And while librarians, nurses, and more support staff for special education students are all noble positions, staffing has been a key driver of the current fiscal crisis. CPS has added more than 9,108 new Full Time positions to its payroll since FY2019, with much of that staff expansion paid for by now-ending COVID relief money. CPS was actually notable for how much of its pandemic relief went into permanent programs - a rather reckless decision. While these staff interventions have led to modest improvements in student achievement, how can the CTU reasonably expect to sustain this?

The State also bears some responsibility for Chicago schools’ money problems. In 2017, Illinois passed a bipartisan Evidence Based Funding model which would’ve fully funded all schools in Illinois by FY27. But unfortunately, it fell behind and isn’t projected to reach its target until FY34. The CTU has jumped on this delay to justify why its spending demands aren’t unreasonable: “we are being cheated by the State, let us start these programs with a loan and make the politicians give us what we are owed”. CTU has been quick to call for new debt spending, even though the district’s debt service costs have grown “from $538.6 million in FY2016 to $816.9 million in FY2025, an increase of about 52%”. Almost the entire FY25 deficit could’ve been covered by that $278.3 million-yearly-debt-payment. Plus, bad debt management harms the district’s credit rating, which agencies have further threatened to drop if these reckless financial decisions are made.

The CTU and Democratic Socialism

But for the CTU, it’s not about the money - it’s about sending a message. For them, it’s a necessary reckoning with the decades of neglect into our school system and minority communities. Since 2012, CTU leadership has moved towards a new political consciousness amongst its members: Democratic Socialism. The CTU wants to use its power to create a welfare state administered through the school system.

The ideology of the CTU wants to see the neighborhood school transform from a mere center of learning into the living heart of a community. Poor families would have access to food aid year round, the politically engaged CTU would be leading the fight to ensure homes for all its students. It would be a community center which would feature a politically radicalizing education available for both adults and kids, year round. This democratic socialism also informs the CTU’s stance towards defunding and removing police presence from school campuses, and the likewise turn against ICE.

Opponents to these ideals make themselves apparent immediately: Where on earth will the money come for this? Why should we have a curriculum full of hacks like Howard Zinn? And what happened to educating students to be ready for career and college success? To naysayers concerned about money; the CTU invalidates these concerns as “right wing austerity politics”. Because to the CTU, these demands are more than money, they’re about morality. To those concerned about the incredibly broad mission we now embark on, the CTU says that current systems are failing to reach the whole child. For how can CTU teach a homeless kid, or a kid being harassed by the police or ICE? It is seen as all one struggle.

These opposing viewpoints make both sides feel like they’re negotiating with a brick wall. So we head towards a strike because the school district cannot be the vehicle that ends poverty in America.

Where Do You Even Go From Here?

So where does this leave the City? We are left with a trainwreck. The CTU has spent the better part of the last 13 years fighting to secure more and more political power in the City only to find it may be for nothing, that the real issue is broader economic and fiscal challenges which are much more difficult to solve. About 40% of CPS money comes from property taxes for which they are powerless to raise. About a quarter comes from the state government, which is equally fiscally constrained from assisting. To put it bluntly, you can promise the moon for the schools but the second a tax hike is mentioned - that evaporates.

I especially see trouble on the horizon for the CTU as Brandon Johnson’s administration continues to lose popularity. We have another set of Chicago School Board elections coming up before his re-election, and the CTU was only able to win four of its endorsements last cycle. Supposing it performs about the same, it will go from a 15/21 pro-CTU Board to a 9/21 in less than 2 years.

Conclusion

I am hoping that cooler heads prevail and that the obviousness of fiscal reality makes itself apparent to both the CPS and CTU. I hope that new leadership takes over the CTU and pursues a more student-and-parent-focused agenda rather than the broad, ideological agenda it currently holds.

But these are all hopes. Plan for the worst. I plan for a potential strike happening in April that will drag on for sometime as the money necessary to satiate the CTU never materializes.

I’ll see you in the next one.

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Trump’s Awful Cabinet Rolls On In

The definition of an empty suit, Marco Rubio has been appointed as Secretary of State. This assessment is based on being able to remember the 2016 primary, where “Lil Marco” was easily bounced by Trump in his own home state after being hyped up since 2012 as the heir apparent to “moderate” the GOP after the harshness of Romney. A bizarre analysis given that Marco Rubio was elected a Tea Party Radical. While forgiving sharp elbows in a primary is to be expected, it only sinks him further in my eyes as he continues to try on new costumes. Anti-Trump to Trumper. Tea Partier to Moderate Uniter to MAGA. Hawk to isolationist and back again at the drop of a hat. He believes in nothing!

Pete Hegseth, a drunk who paid off a woman he raped, has become our Secretary of Defense. Given Trump’s own record on sexual abuse, I assume he thinks this is an admirable characteristic. Is that how you succeed in today’s GOP? Sexual violence? After Matt Gaetz, yet another sex pest nominated by Trump, went down in flames I had a little hope Hegseth would likewise be defeated. 51-50. Ah well, wonder how long he will last. The turnover in the First Trump Administration was enormous.

More corporate oligarchs and generals will be slotted in I’m sure, much like the last Cabinet of his. You ever notice how criticism of Biden officials was usually that they looked weird? Go back to that “Kamala for They/Them” ad. Using the phrase “DEI hire”, the 2020’s replacement to the equally derogatory affirmative action hire. And you ever notice how criticism of Trump officials are that they are corrupt or that they sexually abuse women? Ever notice how much they raise the fear of trans people assaulting women in the bathroom but vote overwhelmingly for sexual abusers? Just something I noticed. Definitely reveals what really bugs them. But of course, if you bring it up, you’re just a sanctimonious, holier-than-thou hysterical liberal.

Other thoughts

The number one thing that excite me politically has to be the upcoming 2026 Illinois Senate election. Dick Durbin has yet to officially announce a retirement, likely coming after all this cabinet drama moves on through, so I expect it to come at latest by April, soonest this week. There are so many tremendous, highly talented people who could take on this role, with so many implications for the future.

One thing I am dreading however, is how much I expect Israel to be one of the largest points of contention. Not only explicitly, but through organizations like Democratic Majority for Israel or from progressive advocacy organizations whom will measure anti-Israel stances to pre-select their candidate of choice.

My picks have fluctuated since I last wrote about this, we need to take Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi much more seriously. The man is a fundraising machine. He also positions himself well being sort of middle of the road for the party. Endorsing a public option, a China Hawk, and supporting the usual litany of Democratic positions re: abortion, gun control, and education. He has a strong shot.

I’ve also been thinking about one of the worst articles I’ve read recently. Editor in Chief of Politico John F Harris recently published an opinion piece and it is the most pathetic sycophancy I have ever seen. Just plain weird. John F Harris’s article reads like appeasement. Please Daddy Trump, don’t punish me with lawsuits or the FCC, I promise to be a good little boy. Praising his “bold” agenda of annexing sovereign nations and obliterating the Western Alliance I find the last paragraph to be the signature ending of a farcical take.

“What he didn’t show in his first term, or on his improbable pathway to a second, was an ability to bring these conflicts to resolution, to unite the country on a new level of understanding. This would require Trump revealing a new understanding about himself and how to use the next four years.”

Ah, so he hasn’t really accomplished what he has sought to do in the first term and has demonstrated no growth or change since to reveal that this time is different. The perfect kind of ending for this take, which will be promptly flushed down the drain by next year when the tariff recession hits. Another country did Import substitution led development, it was called Argentina, and that policy more or less destroyed their economy and has caused a never-ending inflation crisis. How will raising taxes on imports, in the hopes to make domestic goods price competitive, reduce overall prices? We need more goods on the market, not less.

Conclusion

Don’t give up. You don’t have to torture yourself with the daily antics of this administration. I certainly won’t. But don’t give up. Politics is never over, there will never be a last battle. And political forces which once seemed unstoppable can be quickly foiled.

I’ll see you in the next one.

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