Arch Public just keeps hitting home runs - and the numbers tell the ‘moonshot’ story over and over again. Arch Public equities and ETF tools blow away both buy and hold and DCA returns. Some numbers to consider1:

+ NVDA 523.6%
+ TSLA 129.3%
+ MSTR $260,841 (Cash Yield)
+ MARA $130,147 (Cash Yield)

Both total return and turning high growth, high volatility stocks into cash yield machines are what our warehouse of agentic, algorithmic tools specialize in. And, during our webinar last week, Anthony announced that he has signed up for Arch’s tools and will be using them personally going forward. Take a look at what Arch can do for you, completely hands free with equities, ETF’s, Bitcoin, and crypto. You won’t be disappointed.

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To investors,

I am fond of the saying “hard work never goes out of style.” There is a blue collar, self-made theme to this timeless advice. But what if hard work is not enough anymore when it comes to generating financial security for the average American?

Normally I would brush that question off as some insane talking point from the Democratic Socialists of America, but this chart from Quinten Francois forced me to think a little deeper about the problem over the weekend:

This chart is the root cause for so many issues in society. Asset owners have been handsomely rewarded for their understanding of the system, while the remainder of citizens have been punished for following the advice of their grandparents to get a good job, spend less than they make, and save for a rainy day.

Wages are up almost 12x since the mid-1960s. That is a big number. But it is dwarfed in comparison to the 100x from the S&P 500 in the same time frame. The idea of investing in low-cost index funds and chilling has never had a better advertisement.

This chart is looking in the rearview mirror though. What about expectations or the future?

Well, Adam Kobeissi explains that things are going to get much worse before they ever get better:

“US M2 money supply surged +$102.8 billion in July, to a record $23.22 trillion.

This marks the 27th consecutive monthly increase. Since the start of 2026, M2 has now risen +$862.7 billion.

Furthermore, money supply now stands $1.43 trillion above the March 2022 peak. Since 2000, money in circulation has grown at an average annual rate of +6.3%, or ~$700 billion a year.

US money creation is expanding at a rapid pace.”

If this chart doesn’t scare you, remember that the annual interest expense on the national debt is now more than $1 trillion. That is only going to accelerate as politicians spend more money, interest rates stay high, and no one has the courage to stop the runaway train.

It is much easier for politicians to keep promising free things to voters. Remember, they aren’t spending their own money. They are spending our money. I have always thought you would stop the undisciplined spending if you could require politicians to invest personal dollars in every spending initiative. Make them have real skin in the game. I am willing to bet the federal budget would collapse and we would have a balanced budget over night.

The truth is that politicians don’t want a balanced budget. This means we won’t get one, which essentially guarantees that wages can’t keep up with investment assets.

So now we are back to where we started: has hard work gone out of style if you want to achieve financial security?

Of course not. But hard work is definitely not the only ingredient you need. I don’t know a single person that is wealthy who wasn’t able to generate a significant amount of their wealth by owning investment assets.

So which assets am I most bullish on going forward?

Bitcoin. Gold. Land.

Those are going to be the three assets that should outperform the productive assets in the public equities market. The money printer is just warming up. The hard assets built to insulate you from the money printer will show up and do their job. So you don’t have to overthink this one.

I want a portfolio filled with resilient assets that are optimized for the long-term. Assets that go up significantly when politicians do what they are incentivized to do. Quite literally, I want to hold the things that politicians are likely to inflate.

You can choose your own mix or allocation diversification between these three assets. But just make sure you have exposure. Because a 0% allocation to bitcoin, gold, and land is going to be a bad answer in the coming years.

Hope you all have a great start to your week. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Bitcoin to $1 Million?!

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we break down bitcoin's historic recovery and the key levels that matter, the fight between Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent over interest rates, and why Jordi is rotating more of his money into Ethereum and Solana. We also discuss AI agents, tokenization, and just how high bitcoin could realistically go.

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   ---

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research

Arch Public just keeps hitting home runs - and the numbers tell the ‘moonshot’ story over and over again. Arch Public equities and ETF tools blow away both buy and hold and DCA returns. Some numbers to consider1:

+ NVDA 523.6%
+ TSLA 129.3%
+ MSTR $260,841 (Cash Yield)
+ MARA $130,147 (Cash Yield)

Both total return and turning high growth, high volatility stocks into cash yield machines are what our warehouse of agentic, algorithmic tools specialize in. And, during our webinar last week, Anthony announced that he has signed up for Arch’s tools and will be using them personally going forward. Take a look at what Arch can do for you, completely hands free with equities, ETF’s, Bitcoin, and crypto. You won’t be disappointed.

Get Started Today!

To investors,

Bitcoin has disappointed many investors over the last year. We watched everyone’s favorite digital asset drop more than 50% from the all-time high of $125,000. The good news is that the bear market is likely over and we are in the process of starting the next bull market.

Here are five charts that should get you excited about bitcoin’s returns over the next 18-24 months.

First, Quinten Francois shows the relationship between bitcoin’s electrical costs and RSI. You can clearly see the historical pattern of this relationship bottoming simultaneously.

If history repeats, this is a good signal that a bull market has begun.

Second, Will Clemente shows there is an all-time high correlation between bitcoin and gold right now. This is important as the debasement trade makes a comeback due to Scott Bessent’s recent promise of more government spending.

I continue to repeat the classic bitcoin mantra: bitcoin has no top because the dollar has no bottom. And given the government’s insane commitment to destroying dollar purchasing power, even with the current $40+ trillion national debt, you have to be mentally slow to think they won’t continue the undisciplined trend.

Third, bitcoin has historically followed the M2 money supply, but recently there was a large divergence when bitcoin fell at the same time that M2 was continuing to grow. This caused many people to give up on the measurement, but you can see there have been large divergences in the past. When the gap closed, it was bitcoin catching up rather than M2 slowing down.

Fourth, I am not usually one to draw lines on charts and hope my investment portfolio goes up, but I find this analysis from R89 Capital compelling. Bitcoin seems to be bouncing off the bottom of a structured zone that should lead to higher prices in the coming weeks and months.

Finally, the entire secret to investing in bitcoin is that time in the market outperforms timing the market. Jeff John Robert’s shared this chart from Bloomberg and wrote “Bitcoin investing has come to resemble the S&P, where most gains come from big rebound days—and it’s disastrous if you sell and miss those days. Bloomberg chart shows annual BTC returns—with and without 10 days where biggest gains occurs.”

It really is that simple. The bitcoin bear market was shorter and less severe than past cycles. But stop looking in the rearview mirror. A new bull market is upon us. Bitcoin is going to appreciate significantly from here. There will be lots of volatility. The gyrations won’t be for the faint of heart, but those who understand bitcoin and refuse to sell during the volatility will likely be rewarded handsomely.

Hope you all have a great day. I will talk to everyone next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Bitcoin Is Going To $250,000 (Here's Why)

Arthur Hayes is the CEO of Flop Labs and CIO of Maelstrom.

In this conversation, we break down Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's money printing playbook, the controversy around Stanley Druckenmiller's AI-written op-ed, and why bitcoin got overshadowed by the AI trade in 2025. We also discuss gold's next move, how Arthur allocates across bitcoin, gold, and public equities, and his new project tokenizing AI compute itself.

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

Scott Bessent is one of the best macro traders in the world. It has been well documented that he got an elite investing education while working under George Soros, but there is another investor who may be slightly more famous and widely recognized as the best Soros protege: Stanley Druckenmiller.

Debating which one of these guys is better is like trying to pick between a Ferrari and Lamborghini. The exercise is futile and your answer probably relies more on personal preference than an objective difference.

The shared lineage of these two men is what makes the recent debate around the US Treasury’s announcement to “at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities.”

Bessent obviously believes that he can manipulate long-term yields lower by engaging in this activity. He was proven correct initially after the announcement, but long-term yields have already rebounded back to the same level amid concerns around the national debt and continued money printing.

It remains to be seen whether the Treasury has enough firepower to have a lasting effect, even if they continue signaling their $1 trillion general account is available if needed.

On the other side of the debate is Stanley Druckenmiller. He published an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal yesterday titled “Let the Bond Market Speak.” The subtitle reads “Rising interest rates are a signal of trouble ahead. Artificially suppressing it heightens the danger.”

Those words don’t exactly leave much for interpretation. Druckenmiller is explicitly disagreeing with Bessent and the Treasury in public. I would normally expect a disagreement to be handled through a private phone call, but a public dissent like this probably means Druckenmiller feels public pressure is the only way to reverse course.

In the op-ed, he concludes that the long-dated bond yields bouncing back to the same levels post-announcement from the Treasury can only mean one thing: “The market’s verdict was swift and correct: This wasn’t liquidity management, it was price management—and a mistake far larger than $4 billion suggests.”

I personally thought Druckenmiller’s argument about price discovery was the most important part of the op-ed. It reads:

“I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise: Markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers. The long-term Treasury yield is the most important price in the world. It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left. Neither party will run on entitlement reform. Both have spent the past decade expanding commitments while ignoring arithmetic. Democracies don’t repair their finances because a budget office publishes a table. They repair them only when the cost of inaction becomes visible and immediate, when mortgage rates bite, when auctions tail, when the political price of a rising long bond finally exceeds the political price of touching spending.

Every basis point of artificial yield suppression is a subsidy to procrastination. Suppressed long rates sugarcoat the interest-cost projections, shrink the apparent urgency, and let incumbents assure voters the debt is someone else’s problem. If Congress and the administration are unlikely to touch entitlements even with the market’s signal, they are certain not to touch them without one. Whatever this operation saves in basis points, it will cost multiples in delay.”

This all seems fairly logical, right? I agree.

But if Druckenmiller is right, which I believe he is, then it would require us to believe that Scott Bessent is completely missing the obvious data. I find that very, very hard to believe. He is too smart and too experienced to make such a rookie mistake.

This left me confused until I realized an important aspect of Druckenmiller’s op-ed. The entire thing was written by AI. Yes, you read that right. The AI measurement tools online say 100% of the op-ed is written by AI.

The reason this is important is because it tells me that Druckenmiller was not overly passionate about this situation and probably put it together rather quickly. AI is very good at doing that for someone. So why would Druckenmiller put together an op-ed quickly, especially one that critiqued his friend and former colleague in one of the most popular financial newspapers in the world?

Well…what if Bessent asked him to do it? What if the situation everyone thinks is Bessent vs Druckenmiller is actually Besssent AND Druckenmiller.

Under this perspective, Bessent would understand that the Trump administration is trying to print too much money. He knows the damage that is being done. But he also wants to keep his job. So Bessent has to do the things necessary to appease his boss, while still wanting politicians in DC to understand the signal being provided by long-dated yields.

So what do you do in that scenario?

You announce the intention to double your purchases and spend billions of dollars. And then you have your homie write an op-ed saying the government should be doing the opposite and people need to stop manipulating the market.

This is chess, not checkers.

While the media will run with the narrative that Bessent and Druckenmiller fundamentally disagree on the path forward, I just don’t believe that. They both have previously spoke publicly about the need for the government to become more disciplined. They come from the same school of thought. They both are incredible macro traders. And there is no chance that Druckenmiller surprise attacked Bessent in public like that.

So sit back and watch the show. The financial geniuses are using every tool in their toolbox, including manipulation of the mainstream media, to address the dismal financial position the US finds itself in.

The bad boys of finance just played their hand masterfully. And they did it together.

Hope you have a great day. I will talk to everyone next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Can Bitcoin Protect You From AI Threats?

Dr. Roman Yampolskiy is a professor of computer science at the University of Louisville and one of the world's leading AI safety researchers, credited with coining the term "AI safety" over a decade ago.

In this conversation, we break down why he believes superintelligence may be fundamentally uncontrollable, and the recent incidents of AI models hacking, lying, and blackmailing their way out of containment. We also get into the surprising relationship between AI and bitcoin, the collapse of trust from deepfakes, and what happens to jobs and society once we cross the AGI threshold.

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

Bitcoin is ripping higher and you can feel sentiment changing in real-time. This week we have seen the leading digital asset surge to over $77,000 per coin, which is a 22% increase in the last 5 days.

This type of volatility is usually reserved for the euphoria of bull markets, so the fact it is happening during a bear market is a signal investors must pay attention to. Luke Martin explained the significance of this move when he wrote:

“The last time we had this explosive of a one-day move deep in bear market was April 2019. Volatility had evaporated, no one was trading, no catalyst on horizon. Those 6 months felt just like the last 6 months. And then one morning a $100M buyer forced a breakout amplified by massive liquidations & short covering. Instant vibe-shift. You could feel it then. You can feel it today.”

The catalyst for this move was a surprise announcement from the US Treasury. They announced intentions to at least double the size of their liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated Treasuries (maturing in the 10- to 30-year range), which means the operation would now top more than $4 billion. Within minutes of the announcement, bitcoin started accelerating as the market was reminded that the government is never going to stop printing money.

Rather than spend our time dissecting the intricacies of Treasury policy, I think it is more productive to discuss what this announcement and the related move in bitcoin means for investors.

First, we can see a heavy bid happening in the bitcoin ETFs. Galaxy’s Alex Thorn writes “Bitcoin ETFs see biggest weekly net flow since October 2025 all-time high week. Net flow this week is +$1.6 billion and the week is not over yet. [The] ETF average holder cost basis = $84,156. can we get there?”

This persistent bid in ETFs is a welcomed sign of institutional interest in the asset. Earlier this week I published an interview where I explicitly stated there was no obvious catalyst for bitcoin on the calendar, but we needed a catalyst to bring back the institutional bid.

From these ETF flows, it appears the Treasury announcement is the catalyst we were missing. Wall Street seems wide awake when it comes to bitcoin’s ability to appreciate when the money printer is turned on.

The second thing to understand is this move in bitcoin coincides with the start of the 5th business cycle, which was pointed out by TechDev.

Historical performance is not an indicator of future performance, but this business cycle analysis has been very accurate over the years. I wouldn’t use it to identify exact tops and bottoms in markets. However, I think it can be a great supporting data point that shows when bull and bear markets are shifting into a new regime. Given the data, we may have just flipped back into the next bull market regime and will continue grinding up from here.

If this regime shift is true, then the question is what type of return profile should investors anticipate happening? Rafael, one of the cofounders of Glassnode, laid out the historical performance based on the 5 sigma move in bitcoin. He writes:

Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed a day at 5+ sigma to the upside only 14 times. Half of them, like yesterday, came out of very low vol environments.

Median performance after those events:

1 week: +4.8%
1 month: +11.8%
3 months: +15.1%
6 months: +84.8%”

I don’t know many bitcoin investors who would be upset with an 80%+ return over the next 6 months. To further the case for this being a sustainable move in bitcoin, Rafael also pointed out that bitcoin has reclaimed the 200 day moving average and the short-term holder cost basis has flipped positive for the first time in awhile.

Both of these suggest that bitcoin is abandoning the bear market vibes and will be returning to its foundation as an asset that protects people against undisciplined monetary policy. If that is the case, bitcoin investors will look back on the last 10 months as another bear market they were thankful to weather.

I am not in the business of calling market bottoms. I don’t trade bitcoin. Instead, I am a long term holder who is smart enough to recognize that something fundamentally shifted this week. Those who have continued holding bitcoin feel better today than they did at the beginning of the week, but that vibe shift is rooted in data and fundamentals.

Hope everyone has a great weekend. I will talk to you all on Monday.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Bitcoin’s Rally Today Just Confirmed Everything

I sat down with John Pompliano to discuss the state of bitcoin at $64,000, why the price has stabilized, and what it will take to spark the next bull run.

We also break down the exploding cost of AI adoption inside businesses, the national debt problem no president seems willing to fix, and where investors should be putting their capital right now.

Podcast Sponsors

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2. Arch Public’s platform automates your trading strategy beyond DCA for equities, commodities, ETFs, and crypto. With advanced inputs that reflect your own intentions, Arch Public supports smarter entries, exits, and opportunities in volatile markets. Connect with their team, try the product for free, and see how agentic trading can work for you, with Arch Public!

3. GalaxyOne – Open an account with promo code POMP and deposit $10,000 to earn a $3,000 bonus. Terms apply. https://go.galaxy.app/HMiq/p57n69yy

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

Every business wants access to the highest level of intelligence, but at the lowest cost possible. The rise of LLMs has made intelligence abundant, yet one of the hardest problems across startups and corporate America is predicting the compute cost associated with this intelligence.

I have been dealing with this personally as we build Silvia and the problem comes up in almost every conversation I have with CEOs, founders, and executives.

Every business embraced AI about 18 months ago and things seemed great until the compute bills started to show up. The bills for internal compute usage were difficult to swallow, but things got outrageous if you had an AI product that allowed your users to consume compute without limits.

I know this problem intimately because that is the situation that Silvia was in. Every question that was asked meant higher compute costs for our company. But we didn’t want to limit usage because users were getting genuine value out of the product.

This challenge sent our team down a deep rabbit hole of cutting costs, while improving the experience for users. The second part was really important: we did not want to degrade the user experience by simply taking away access to the highest quality models.

Thankfully, resource constraints breed innovation. We aren’t the biggest company, nor do we have the largest balance sheet, but we came up with a very novel solution that we are announcing today.

The Silvia engineering team built a model router that cut costs by up to 29%, decreased latency, and improved the quality of answers for users. Trifecta!

The way we do this is by reading the first 500 characters of a query and then predicting the level of effort that will be needed by a model to answer the query. The highest effort needs are routed to the most powerful models. The lowest effort needs are routed to different, better models for the query.

A good example of this would be “what is the date?” You don’t need to use the latest Anthropic model to answer this query. In fact, sending a simple query like this to the most powerful model will make your compute costs increase and will actually increase the latency, which means a worse user experience for the Silvia user.

By implementing the model router, the user gets a better experience and we get lower costs. Win-win.

One of the interesting aspects of the implementation is that our model router runs on CPUs instead of GPUs. This allows us to read the query and predict the level of effort needed in less than 1 millisecond. This CPU implementation is why latency is not affected, nor is cost significantly increased by any potential additional GPU consumption.

Another important point is that many of you have probably seen the news that OpenRouter is being purchased by Stripe for around $7 billion. This is a great outcome from what appears to be a very smart, capable team. Their model routing API is related (their product and our internal implementation both touch model routing), but you should think of OpenRouter as making it possible to do model routing for companies, while Silvia’s model router is a custom, intelligent system that specifically routes Silvia queries to the right model.

They give access to the functionality of model routing to many companies, while our internal product does the real decision-making specific to our use case.

Lastly, our implementation of a model router is a strategic bet that will allow us to become model-agnostic over time. We don’t care who created the different models, we just want to route a query to the model best positioned to answer. The large model labs will never allow their users to be model agnostic, but that would require the lab to potentially route a query to a competitor’s model. No bueno in their eyes.

Instead, Silvia being an independent AI research lab gives us the power of being agnostic. We simply want the best experience for our users. Last week we announced that Silvia is now the most accurate AI tax product on the market, including beating OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI. Today we are announcing a custom, in-house model router that rivals the best technology anyone else has built.

There will be many more engineering announcements to come. I truly believe we have assembled one of the best AI teams and we are currently the best AI research lab in finance. If you are interested in learning more about the technical details of the model router, you can read the engineering blog post here.

Everyone wants the best intelligence and the lowest cost. Silvia just showed the world what is possible in this pursuit. I anticipate many other companies will build this custom solutions to achieve the same benefits. Remember, you can use Silvia to leverage the latest AI tech to better manage your finances and investment portfolio.

Try it for free here.

Hope you all have a great day. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

CEO Explains Why Bitcoin Is Digital Gold

Yoni Assia is the CEO and co-founder of eToro.

In this conversation, we break down agentic trading and how AI is reshaping the platform, why bitcoin remains digital gold, eToro’s move into tokenized equities, SpaceX IPO, and why eToro trades for less than 10x EBITDA.

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

Most blockchain companies are dead and don’t even realize it yet. In fact, I would argue the more a company touts being a blockchain company, the less likely they are to succeed. This is why I find Figure Technologies such an interesting company.

They are one of the most successful blockchain companies, yet they barely talk about the blockchain. They simply use the technology as an underlying infrastructure to empower them to provide a better product and service to the market. This is how companies should approach the situation in my opinion.

I have been an investor in Figure for a long time. My original investment came when I was managing the digital assets venture funds at Morgan Creek. We invested multiple times, including leading a few rounds in the company, and I eventually joined the board of directors. My big takeaway from serving on the board was that Mike Cagney, the company’s founder, is one of the best technology founders in the world. I would never, ever bet against him.

Mike not only previously founded SoFi, but he was able to navigate Figure through multiple market cycles and different iterations of the technology platform. While I no longer serve on the board, I believe Mike and his team are building a generational company that will create significant disruption in the traditional finance industry.

Figure announced their Q2 earnings last week and the results speak for themselves. They grew net revenue by 100% year-over-year and EBITDA grew by more than 50% in the same timeframe. For those unfamiliar, there is a “Rule of 40” in SaaS companies that most investors adhere to. It states that a company growing their revenue and EBTIDA by a combined percentage of 40 or higher will deliver outsized returns going forward.

Rex Salisbury writes:

“Forget Rule of 40. Figure’s “Rule of 150” puts them ahead of every name in S&P 500 except NVDIA and Micron).

+153% net revenue

+54% EBTIDA

=167

great quarter.”

It is not everyday that a tech company is growing faster than almost every other business on the planet. So how are they doing this? Figure builds blockchain-based products that empower more efficient lending across various asset categories. They previously served as the main loan originator, followed by the blockchain-based marketplace for securitization.

Today the company is hyper-focused on scaling Figure Connect, which is a consumer credit marketplace. Although they are one of the biggest blockchain companies in the world, you almost never hear them talk about blockchain to their consumers. Cagney and his team realize the consumer doesn’t care what database technology you use. They simply care if you can get them a loan faster and cheaper than the competitors.

And it appears that Figure has successfully built a better product, which is why the volumes are growing so rapidly quarter-over-quarter. To better understand this growth, Stock Analyst Pro writes:

“Figure just delivered its strongest quarter ever, and the growth + margins are impressive.

🔹 Consumer Loan Marketplace Volume: $4.3B, +132% YoY

🔹 3rd consecutive quarter of 100%+ growth

🔹 Net Revenue: $218M, +95% YoY

🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $119.4M, 55% margin

🔹 Net Income: $87.4M, nearly 3x YoY

🔹 Net Income Margin: 38.8%

🔹 Figure Connect: 65% of volume vs 42% YoY

🔹 Origination Partners: 489, adding 102 in Q2 alone

My biggest takeaway:

Figure is showing that bringing lending + capital markets on-chain isn’t just a blockchain narrative anymore.

• 132% volume growth.

• 95% revenue growth.

• 55% EBITDA margin.

• 100+ institutional loan buyers.

• 489 origination partners.

If Figure can maintain anything close to this growth while continuing to shift volume toward its capital-light marketplace model, this can become a very interesting FinTech compounder.”

I continue to be a shareholder of Figure through the Morgan Creek funds. Although we have to trim positions from time-to-time based on LP liquidity needs, I remain very optimistic about the long-term fundamentals of the company. It feels like we are watching the formation of the next great credit marketplace, which has a significant TAM and lots of room to run.

I anticipate there will be increased competition in the future. The good thing about marketplaces though is that once someone has the network effect, competition struggles to unseat the winner and all market participants are incentivized to join the existing network. It feels like Figure is getting close to that point. And they are doing it with a blockchain, yet they aren’t shoving “blockchain!” down everyone’s throat.

Maybe there is a lesson in that for the rest of the industry.

Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

CEO Explains Why Bitcoin Is Digital Gold

Yoni Assia is the CEO and co-founder of eToro.

In this conversation, we break down agentic trading and how AI is reshaping the platform, why bitcoin remains digital gold, eToro's move into tokenized equities, SpaceX IPO, and why eToro trades for less than 10x EBITDA.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – Get a slice of $160,000 with their Community Appreciation event. T&Cs apply. True DeFi Democratized Prime yielding ~8.5% APY. They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Crypto Backed Loan today. Figure Lending LLC dba Figure (NMLS 1717824)

2. Arch Public’s platform automates your trading strategy beyond DCA for equities, commodities, ETFs, and crypto. With advanced inputs that reflect your own intentions, Arch Public supports smarter entries, exits, and opportunities in volatile markets. Connect with their team, try the product for free, and see how agentic trading can work for you, with Arch Public!

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas wrote about young people’s propensity for risk and gambling yesterday: “Gen Z is moving money from stocks to sports betting in wealth plans, 52% of them have redirected investment funds to sports betting and quarter of them treat sports betting as a deliberate part of their long-term financial plan, according to survey from Betterment. Wow.”

This new development is going viral online because older people are mocking these young people and their perceived stupidity. How could young men (it is mostly men) take hard-earned money out of their investment accounts and place sports bets instead? Why would they do that? Don’t they realize how bad of a strategy this is?

The answer to these questions, and my personal opinion on the topic, are more nuanced than you might think.

For example, I could easily argue that selecting single name stocks and betting on who wins tonight’s baseball game are different forms of gambling. Traditionalists don’t like to hear it, but the stock market is just a casino for the white-collar crowd. Zero day options are the most popular options by a long shot and most young people who are “investing” are really just speculating on random tickers they believe can go parabolic with retail participation.

It is not like these young people are choosing between being the next Warren Buffett, full of patience and long-term thinking, or becoming a gambling-addicted risk-taker. They are merely moving money between different risk-taking venues with the hopes of hitting it big.

A big reason for this trend of speculation is the broader macro environment. The government has destroyed the US dollar and ensured purchasing power will continue evaporating like water on a hot summer day. If you see cumulative inflation rising 30% over the last 6 years, along with gas, grocery, and home prices skyrocketing, some portion of people are going to conclude they have to take as much risk as possible.

This is a common story throughout history. Destroy the currency, increase gambling.

But there is another side to the story that most people don’t want to acknowledge: young people mature over time. When I was younger, I took significant risks financially. I never sports gambled in a meaningful way, but the first real investments I ever made were day trading foreign currencies. I would sit in class during college and obsessively watch EUR/USD. I ran ~$9,000 up to over $60,000 in the matter of months, but then succumbed to the classic laws of gravity and gave back about half of the profits in a few weeks.

I was essentially gambling and didn’t even realize it. That experience taught me an important lesson in risk management, speculation, and what not to do. I am glad it happened when I was young and just starting out.

The thing about this experience is that I could easily blame the fact that I was 21 years old and my brain wasn’t even fully formed. Of course I was making bad decisions. I was uneducated and driven by adrenaline and/or greed. As I matured, so did my investment approach.

Warren Buffett did something similar. For those that don’t know, Buffett actually started off selling horse picks and handicap odds in what would be a modern-day newsletter. Yes, the definition of value investing literally started off as a young man interested in gambling.

I suspect that many of these young men who are swapping funds back-and-forth between their investment accounts and sports gambling apps will do the same. They were learn hard lessons, have their brains fully form, and eventually realize that long-term optimizations outperform short-term speculation.

This reality shouldn’t discount the very serious epidemic of sports gambling in America. I think it will only worsen and we will have a national crisis on our hands. That is why I purchased a minority stake in Nothing’s Off The Table, a media platform focused on helping people overcome gambling addiction.

But my main message is the following - young people are going to be young people. They are going to do dumb things. They will touch the hot stove. They will drive too fast. And they will speculate with their money.

We don’t have to like it, nor do most of us think it will end up successful as a strategy. But let’s not look down our noses and pretend like this is a new trend.

Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Rent Control, Socialism, and the Fight to Save New York City

Reihan Salam is the President of the Manhattan Institute.

In this conversation, we break down what's driving New York City's affordability crisis — from decades of rent control and restrictive zoning to a failing public education system. We also discuss the burnout crisis in law enforcement, immigration and assimilation, the rise of the DSA and socialism among young Americans, and how AI, bitcoin, and capitalism can restore opportunity and rebuild the American dream.

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2. Arch Public’s platform automates your trading strategy beyond DCA for equities, commodities, ETFs, and crypto. With advanced inputs that reflect your own intentions, Arch Public supports smarter entries, exits, and opportunities in volatile markets. Connect with their team, try the product for free, and see how agentic trading can work for you, with Arch Public!

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

There has been a big debate in the AI industry on whether general-purpose AI models will dominate every industry or if there is room for application-specific AI products to win certain markets. We can settle that debate today.

Our team at Silvia is announcing this morning that we have successfully built the single most accurate and powerful AI product when it comes to tax-related topics. This means Silvia outperforms OpenAI’s Chat-GPT, Anthropic’s Claude, Google’s Gemini, xAI’s Grok, startup Tax-GPT, and open-source models as well.

I understand people will be skeptical that a small team of engineers could beat trillion-dollar companies who are spending tens of billions of dollars per year. Skepticism is good. But I wouldn’t make a bold claim like this without having the objective data and facts to support the announcement.

Today, as part of this milestone achievement, we are releasing a research paper that shows the test results, along with open sourcing the evaluation rubric, including the relevant prompts and user parameters. This allows anyone to go benchmark against our eval rubric and pressure test what we are claiming.

Very few companies ever open-source the eval rubric because they consider it IP worth protecting. We are open-sourcing the prompts and user parameters today because we want to prove beyond a doubt that Silvia is the superior AI product when it comes to tax.

So how did we successfully beat the largest AI model labs in the world at tax-related topics?

The short answer is that we made a different strategic bet than them. The general-purpose models aim to be the most intelligent models across a variety of industries and topics. They want to be very good in history, math, science, software coding and a plethora of other fields. The idea is to be as intelligent as possible, yet applicable in a general way.

I find this general-purpose approach to be quite valuable in my day-to-day life. However, when I want answers and insights about a specific topic like tax, I want to go to experts. The generalist models are great at searching the web and using their large language models to predict answers, but tax is an area where good guesses are not enough.

So our team at Silvia set out to solve this problem a few weeks ago. Here is what we did:

1. We started with Silvia’s proprietary AI harness, which is a state-of-the-art system created specifically for our platform, our data set, and our use case.

2. We built proprietary data pipelines that allowed us to index the US federal and state tax codes and then make them much easier for an AI agent to read and work with.

3. We leveraged our internal proprietary data set, which is one of the largest anonymized data sets in the world of wealthy people talking to an LLM about their personal finances.

By combining specialized workflows with proprietary data and the powerful Silvia AI harness, we were able to create the best AI product for tax-related topics. This objective truth proves that the big bet we made was correct: the general-purpose models are great at doing many things, but they are going to have a hard time competing with specialized workflows and domain knowledge in certain industries.

We are seeing this play out in other areas too. Harvey, the leading legal AI product, continues to dominate majority of the models by taking a similar approach. I believe there will be hundreds more companies that realize this approach is valuable and then begin fragmenting the market into a thousand pieces.

There are a few ramifications from today’s announcement that I think are worth calling out:

1. If you have not signed up for Silvia, now would be an excellent time to start using it. She will quickly become one of the most valuable pieces of software in your life and help guide you through your financial decisions.

2. The world has now been put on notice about the quality and ambition of the Silvia engineering team. While we may not have billons of dollars, we have a small team of very talented people who are laser-focused on winning the personal finances category.

3. The general-purpose models will have to make a decision: do they want to win the AGI race or is it worth trying to compete in the various verticals with application-specific companies and products? My guess is they will mostly stay out of the smaller verticals, which makes them susceptible to death by a thousand cuts when it comes to revenue and use cases.

4. There will continue to be an all-out war for proprietary data. The large models are already spending billions of dollars to acquire various data sets, including rare books and other difficult content, so you should expect that effort to accelerate from here.

5. Competition between general-purpose models and specialized workflow applications will become more cutthroat, but that ultimately will be a win for the consumer. Competition will breed innovation and users will end up with better, more accurate, and more useful products.

Today is one of the most important days in the history of our company. We have essentially pulled off the impossible. No one thought a team of five engineers and limited resources could beat trillion-dollar companies with thousands of employees.

But here we are. I will bet on the Silvia misfits any day of the week.

Please sign up for Silvia. Read the press release here. Check out the open source eval rubric here. And cross your fingers and toes for us. The journey ahead is not certain, but we are up for the challenge.

Sign up for Silvia now

Hope everyone has a great start to their week. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Bitcoin Is About to Explode — The Fed Just Ran Out of Tools

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we break down why the last two weeks may be the most important stretch in bitcoin's history, the US-Japan yen intervention, and a weakening labor market. We also discuss the AI stock rebound, physical AI and Tesla's Terafab, Google's talent exodus, and how to value SpaceX.

Podcast Sponsors

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2. Arch Public’s platform automates your trading strategy beyond DCA for equities, commodities, ETFs, and crypto. With advanced inputs that reflect your own intentions, Arch Public supports smarter entries, exits, and opportunities in volatile markets. Connect with their team, try the product for free, and see how agentic trading can work for you, with Arch Public!

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4. BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.

5. BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

The US industrial base looks very different than it did 50 years ago. Manufacturing’s share of U.S. non-farm employment fell from roughly 32% in the early 1950s to about 22% by 1979 and ~8–9% recently. Absolute employment peaked near 19.5 million jobs around 1979, held roughly stable (with cycles) into the late 1990s, then dropped by roughly 5–6 million jobs in the 2000s.

While American jobs in this sector have nearly evaporated, the economists will tell you that real manufacturing output and value-added manufacturing have generally held up or grown (with measurement caveats around computers/semiconductors), while the U.S. remains the world’s second-largest manufacturing economy by value-added.

Put aside all of the economic data, the academic studies, or what the mainstream media is trying to convince you of. I don’t think anyone believes America can manufacture physical goods the way we used to. You can twist the data to tell any story, but our industrial base has degraded and we now realize that we are exposed to this problem.

There were two announcements this week that give me hope that ambitious entrepreneurs are going to turn this situation around. First, Hadrian CEO Chris Power announced they have raised a $1.37 billion Series D to re-industrialize America. For those who are unaware, Hadrian is one of the leading private companies when it comes to the manufacturing resassaince in the country.

Axios describes the business by writing “Hadrian pumps out precision parts and provides factories-as-a-service for aerospace and defense markets. It employs skilled human workers and augments that workforce with artificial intelligence, automation and robotics. (Its proprietary software is known as Opus.) Hadrian today has nearly 3 million square-feet across four sites, and a new headquarters in Los Angeles and an engineering and research-and-development hub in San Francisco are being planned.”

You can watch Chris talk about the fundraise, which includes many of the largest financial institutions in the world, and his future plans for the business:

My biggest takeaway from this video was Chris’ comments about the four things all of his investors agree on:

• America needs to reindustrialize

• Physical AI is real

• Transforming the world of atoms matters 100× more than the world of bits

• The New American Workforce is the center of everything they do

Those are core principles to bringing the industrial base back to America. But this effort is not going to be successfully accomplished by a single private company. Instead, we are going to need as many organizations working on this as possible.

If Hadrian is a bottoms-up, private company solution, then Elon Musk’s collection of companies is the public market solution to the same problem.

For example, Tesla and SpaceX have teamed up with Intel to begin building Terafab, a massive, vertically integrated semiconductor manufacturing complex in Grimes County, Texas, backed by an initial $16.8 billion investment from Tesla and SpaceX. Spanning up to 100 million square feet, the facility aims to produce advanced logic and memory chips under one roof to power Optimus robots, Cybercabs, and space-based data centers.

To put 100 million square feet into perspective, Elon shared this graphic yesterday:

This thing is not only enormous, but it is likely the single most ambitious manufacturing facility ever constructed by humans. That detail alone is inspiring. But our friends at Geiger Capital put it best when they explained why this type of project is so difficult in America:

“Elon might be the only person building stuff in America at China speed/scale, despite the overwhelming US regulations and partisan politics…we need more Elon’s, not less.”

Just look at what Elon is trying to build in this illustrative video. He shared this by saying “Terafab Texas will be the largest and most valuable building on Earth by far. And it will be stunningly beautiful.”

Anyone who is claiming that the American industrial base has been hallowed out over the last few decades has a strong argument. But I don’t think we should spend time looking in the rear-view mirror, instead we have a lot of positive things to look forward to. We have public and private companies race to reindustrialize our nation.

We have many of the leading investment firms pouring tens of billions of dollars of capital into this effort. And we have some of the country’s best entrepreneurs leading the charge.

I wouldn’t bet against America. We are going to reindustrialize, which means invstors who can get allocated to this trend are going to do very well over the next 10-20 years. As one example, I asked CFO Silvia to explain what Tesla and SpaceX could be valued at if Terafab becomes a reality. Here is what she said:

Even if the probability is low, the potential return is high. That is exactly what a lot of investors are looking for right now.

My bet is “reindustrialization” will have been code for “profits” when we look back two decades from now. The question is just where those profits migrate and who the big winners are.

Hope everyone has a great end to their week. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Is Bitcoin Self-Custody DEAD?!

Tillman Holloway is the Co-Founder & CEO of Arch Public, and Andrew Parish is the Co-Founder & COO.

In this conversation, we break down the Cold Card hack and what it means for bitcoin self-custody, why bitcoin barely moved despite $100 million in losses, the Leopold hedge fund blowup, and the race between closed and open source AI. We also discuss why Apple could win the AI trade, agentic trading, and give away a Rolex watch.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – Get a slice of $160,000 with their Community Appreciation event. T&Cs apply True DeFi Democratized Prime yielding ~8.5% APY. They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Crypto Backed Loan today. Figure Lending LLC dba Figure (NMLS 1717824)

2. Arch Public’s platform automates your trading strategy beyond DCA for equities, commodities, ETFs, and crypto. With advanced inputs that reflect your own intentions, Arch Public supports smarter entries, exits, and opportunities in volatile markets. Connect with their team, try the product for free, and see how agentic trading can work for you, with Arch Public!

3. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

4. BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.

5. BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.

6. TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you’re ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!

7. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

Legendary VC investor Tim Draper bought 29,656 BTC at $632 in 2014. That trade is up roughly 100x. Now, he’s backing a new venture called mogul.

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Today’s edition is a guest post by Phil Rosen, chief market strategist at ProCap Financial and the author of the Opening Bell Daily newsletter.

The balance sheets of Big Tech companies are all sending the same bullish message.

The hyperscalers that dominated the last decade — Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta — are hell-bent on shaping the next one by deploying as much capital as possible into artificial intelligence.

Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta will invest roughly $673 billion in 2026 against “only” $660 billion of trailing operating cash flow.

That means they will spend 102% of their operating cash flow on AI capex this year, up from 64% in 2025 and 48% in 2024, according to company filings.

In other words, Big Tech will spend 102 cents of every dollar it makes.

It’s hard to know how much of their collective bet on AI is competitive one-upmanship versus conviction on new technology.

Either way, over the last four years as capex has climbed and free cash flow has dwindled, the Magnificent 7 have delivered weaker and weaker annual returns for shareholders.

An equal-weighted basket of the Mag 7 this year has gained just over 4%, even as the S&P 500 has more than doubled that in the same stretch. That puts the group on pace to trail the index for the first time since 2022 after a three-year winning streak.

While the Mag 7 has shown renewed strength in recent days, public markets have largely punished Big Tech for its spending ambitions over the last year. That said, investors have also positioned themselves to capture the other side of the spending boom.

Every dollar hyperscalers spend lands on someone else’s balance sheet.

Chipmakers, power producers, cooling specialists and niche utility stocks have been among the biggest winners (I’ve shared many of these names inside our Best Ideas Club portfolio).

The 102% figure is ultimately a story of asymmetry. The biggest companies in history are funding the buildout while the firms selling them chips, electricity and materials are cashing in.

As much as the bears point to the eye-watering capex as reason for panic, it’s just as palatable to take it as a bullish signal for the other side of the trade.

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🚨 Webinar This Thursday

Join me this Thursday, August 6th at 2:00pm EST for a live, deep-dive webinar with the team at Arch Public. We’re diving deep into how systematic algorithms adapt to modern crypto volatility and how those same quantitative strategies are now being applied to traditional equities.

Plus, there will be a Q/A opportunity at the end. Space is limited, so make sure to reserve your spot ahead of time.

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The Bitcoin Truth Wall Street Doesn’t Want You to Hear

Nancy Beaton is the President of Retail at Uphold.

In this conversation, we play devil’s advocate on the biggest crypto critiques — from crypto losing its “outside the system” ethos to custodial risk and the Clarity Act. We also discuss tokenized securities, what her users are actually demanding, and where bitcoin and blockchain adoption are headed over the next decade.

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7. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

8. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

9. mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

Information is power. The internet allows anyone to learn a topic as long as they are curious enough. But a big problem in finance is that everything moves at the speed of light now. We are bombarded with headlines, social media feeds, podcasts, and newsletters.

By the time you get up to speed on one current event, it feels like five new ones have occurred.

Rather than drown in a sea of information, I wanted to figure out a way to get up to speed on a current event as efficiently as possible. The parameters that were important to me were factual accuracy, efficient use of time, easy to consume format, and real-time understanding as events transpire.

After weeks of work, our team at Silvia has officially launched a new feature that solves this problem.

You can now ask Silvia to create a 2-minute video on any current event and she will deliver you an incredible video on that topic that has audio voiceover and visual slide presentation of facts. For example, I asked Silvia to “create a 2 minute video explaining to me what is happening with the Japanese yen.”

This is the video she quickly created:

I am fairly impressed with how this overview came out. Our engineering team did a great job finding the right balance between “easy to consume” and “factual accuracy” for a nuanced topic.

This feature is new, so there may be minor bugs that pop up. We are working hard to improve it. My ultimate goal is to have Silvia become an indispensable tool for independent investors around the world.

Giving Silvia the ability to quickly teach an investor about any current event in real-time is a great step towards that goal. I highly recommend signing up for Silvia and giving this new feature a try.

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If you want extra points, you can add “tell me how this will impact my personal portfolio” to any explainer video and Silvia will personalize the content to your specific financial situation. It feels like magic the first time you see it.

Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

🚨 Webinar This Thursday

Join me this Thursday, August 6th at 2:00pm EST for a live, deep-dive webinar with the team at Arch Public. We’re diving deep into how systematic algorithms adapt to modern crypto volatility and how those same quantitative strategies are now being applied to traditional equities.

Plus, there will be a Q/A opportunity at the end. Space is limited, so make sure to reserve your spot ahead of time.

👉 Register Here For FREE

The Bitcoin Truth Wall Street Doesn't Want You to Hear

Nancy Beaton is the President of Retail at Uphold.

In this conversation, we play devil's advocate on the biggest crypto critiques — from crypto losing its "outside the system" ethos to custodial risk and the Clarity Act. We also discuss tokenized securities, what her users are actually demanding, and where bitcoin and blockchain adoption are headed over the next decade.

Podcast Sponsors

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2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

3. TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you’re ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!

4. BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.

5. BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.

6. Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.

7. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

8. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

9. mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

Hackers have stolen more than $100 million of bitcoin from over 5,000 wallets in the last few days. This theft is particularly noteworthy because it is happening to users who were using Coldcard, a type of cold storage device that was previously thought to be the most secure way to store your bitcoin.

It is important to call out that the bitcoin network was not hacked, nor does this hack disprove the importance and efficacy of self-custody and cold storage. Instead, this hack was due to a software flaw with a specific vendor (Coinkite) related to the way their random number generator worked.

These details won’t matter though as the mainstream media reports headlines like “Hackers Hit Bitcoin’s Safest Hiding Place In Ongoing Attack.” That type of coverage will obviously not help bitcoin’s adoption. But more importantly, this hack strikes at the heart of the true bitcoin believers. The people who took the time to learn self-custody, and spent the time to implement it, are not casual investors.

These are the most hardcore bitcoiners. And now a hacker has been able to siphon away their bitcoin through an attack vector that most bitcoiners didn’t even know existed.

I don’t believe bitcoin will ultimately suffer long-term from this. There could be a few rocky weeks ahead though depending on the fear driven by mainstream media coverage. Bitcoin has been through worse and it will once again prove how resilient it can be.

I also think this incident will drive renewed interest in the bitcoin ETFs or other third-party, multi-sig arrangements. People are willing to pay for security when security is a concern. And this Coinkite situation is going to make security a VERY big concern.

In addition to my opinion on how this situation will impact the market, I shared a few other thoughts with the bitcoin community over the weekend. Here they are in no particular order:

1. This is devastating for a lot of people. They lost their hard-earned economic value in a way most didn’t realize was possible. Not everyone is a technical genius, but almost all are merely looking to build a better life for themselves and their family. I feel for these people and their new reality.

2. I have personally lost bitcoin in the past and it is never fun. The only lesson I can impart from my personal experience on those going through this is that you are unlikely to change the past. Don’t spend immense time thinking about what could have been, but rather focus on a plan moving forward. You can only control your actions and response, so focus on how to come back stronger.

3. People will inevitably attack the various investors in Coldcard, or the podcasters promoting the product, but that anger is misplaced and unproductive. I saw this phenomenon first-hand with the BlockFi situation. Even though I wasn’t involved in the company’s operations, people wanted someone to blame and they came for those who were the most accessible. To those who are angry, don’t waste your time attacking those who are not responsible. To those who will be unjustly attacked, this too shall pass.

4. This incident highlights the difficulty with self-custody. I fundamentally believe in an individual’s right to have true sovereignty over their assets. It is one of the core value propositions of bitcoin. But we must also recognize that self-custody is a technically complex topic that some, but not all, are prepared to take on. Better education and better technology can help bridge this gap in the future.

5. The mainstream media hasn’t picked up this story yet, but I am sure they will at some point. They can’t resist the “bitcoin was hacked!” storyline. Obviously bitcoin was not hacked and there is no known security vulnerability with the protocol. This was a third-party issue, but that won’t stop the misinformation, so it is important to combat the misinformation with facts.

6. Sentiment in the bitcoin industry is very bad right now. This is normal in a bear market, so it is not surprising. But a security incident like this is equivalent to throwing a match on gasoline. There will be more anger, in-fighting, and unproductive nonsense. If this is your first time experiencing it, welcome to the arena. If you have seen it before, you know the negative sentiment will eventually evaporate and the sun will shine again over the next 12-18 months.

7. There are very real ramifications to the acceleration in AI technology. I am not sure if AI played a part in this hack, but it wouldn’t surprise me if that was the case. Every developer should take this new capability seriously and consider how they can enhance their security practices accordingly.

8. The bitcoin community is just as resilient as the network itself. We have been through insane, painful moments throughout the years. This is another one. The only way forward is to go through the fire.

In conclusion, this situation sucks for everyone affected. I genuinely feel for them and intimately understand the pain from my own past experiences. If you are one of the affected folks, keep your head up and continue walking forward. For those who own bitcoin and were not affected, understand there will be a lot of noise in the coming days, but nothing about bitcoin or its future outlook has changed.

Hope everyone has a great start to their week. I will talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Bitcoin Is The Best Hedge Fund That's Ever Existed

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we break down the Leopold Aschenbrenner hedge fund unwind, the market crashes in South Korea and Japan, Kevin Warsh and the Fed's next move, and the case for compute scarcity as AI demand outpaces supply. We also discuss tokenization and why bitcoin remains the ultimate hedge and store of value in a world being reshaped by AI.

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2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

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6. Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.

7. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

8. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

9. mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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Today’s edition is a guest post by Phil Rosen, chief market strategist at ProCap Financial and the author of the Opening Bell Daily newsletter.

Bull markets do not end when the average stock in the market keeps hitting new highs.

That’s exactly what’s happening right now.

The equal-weight S&P 500 is up 12.2% this year against 8.7% for the market-cap weighted benchmark. Not only that, but the NYSE advanced-decline line hovers near all-time highs, which means there are far more names going up than going down.

That is compelling evidence that the bull run is still broadening out, however top-heavy the index might look from the outside.

Over the last month, the average stock has gained more than 1% despite the bear market in many of the most popular semiconductor and memory names like Micron, Sandisk and Western Digital.

Roughly two-thirds of S&P 500 stocks are higher today than at the start of June, and 8 of 11 sectors have climbed. Healthcare and financials have led the way — hardly what you’d expect in a market that’s supposedly propped up by an AI bubble.

That participation doesn’t show up in the S&P 500’s headline number because the Magnificent 7, which is negative as a group so far in 2026, still accounts for close to 30% of its value.

The same broad pattern holds true with the Nasdaq 100, the market’s most concentrated and tech-heavy index.

The average Nasdaq 100 stock is up 14.2% this year, outperforming the cap-weighted Nasdaq 100’s 11.3% return.

To be clear, the current bull market is nearly four years old and it was indeed top-heavy for most of its early run. That said, a broadening out like this is still historically what you would see in the middle innings of a rally.

No investing story is usually simple enough to explain in a headline. That’s why the bears will pound the table about a popping bubble when semiconductor stocks turn red or when broader indexes move sideways.

Yet the more intriguing and accurate story isn’t happening at a headline level. It’s unfolding beneath the surface and across the most boring names and sectors in the market.

The risk-reward favors the bulls right now. So does history.

Phil Rosen is the chief market strategist at ProCap Financial and the co-founder of Opening Bell Media.

The Fed's Latest Move Just Changed Everything

Darius Dale is the founder and CEO of 42 Macro.

In this conversation, we break down what the Fed should do next, how money printing quietly erodes your purchasing power, Kevin Warsh's plan to reshape the Fed, what history says happens to economies as K-shaped as ours, and what gives Darius hope for the future.

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

Portfolios have been punished the last few days, which is causing many investors to question their commitment to the AI trade. The Nasdaq is down about 5% in the last 5 trading sessions and the index has suffered a 10% drawdown in the last month.

It doesn’t matter that tech investors are up 8% year-to-date or up 16% in the last 12 months. This is a “what have you done for me lately” market, so investors are beginning to freak out at the recent weakness.

But what is driving this sell-off? Should you actually be worried?

The short answer is no, there is nothing to worry about in the medium-to-long term. The recent drawdown is largely being driven by a deleveraging that has taken no prisoners. For example, the South Korean stock market had surged 135% over the last 6 months, which invited every speculator and gambler to go mega-long various Korean equities.

We have seen how that movie ends time and again throughout history. Adam Kobeissi writes, “in an unprecedented move, South Korea’s stock market just collapsed -44% in 40 days, erasing -$2 trillion in market cap. Now, South Korea’s finance ministry has announced plans to “stabilize” the market.”

You don’t have an entire stock market gain tripe-digits in 6 months without seeing some sort of violent drawdown later on. This is how modern volatility works. You go up faster than ever before, but you also see destruction occur just as swiftly.

Everything, including capital and information, moves at the speed of light now.

The deleveraging is not only happening in South Korea though. Japan is feeling the pain too after “$200 billion has been wiped from the Japanese stock market as the Nikkei plunges 2.3% from its intraday highs.”

As if it wasn’t bad enough that trillions of dollars are evaporating across various global stock markets, we are now getting reports that large US hedge funds, like Leopoldo Aschenbrener’s Situational Awareness, have experienced massive drawdowns as well.

The poster boy for the AI trade is getting hit hard, so naturally everyone begins predicting his demise. They start talking about Long Term Capital Management, the Global Financial Crisis, and whatever additional fear porn they think will get clicks online.

I prefer Citrini’s theory that Situational Awareness will likely convince their LPs to double-down, which helps create the market bottom and lays the groundwork for the next leg up in the AI trade. Citrini explains by writing:

“Imagine, for a moment, you are an LP in Situational Awareness. The fund that launched on a pitch that was essentially “AI is the only thing that matters and if you recognize that and wish to be invested in a vehicle that will express that view by getting massively nips to nuts long the most beta to our informed AI views this fine stock market can offer us, then you invest”. And you invested. Not just because you’re bullish on AI, thousands of hedge funds are “bullish on AI”, but because you think Leopold is uniquely situated as being one of/knowing “the few hundred people” who will bring about Machine God before 2030.

Then over the next two years, the fund did exactly what it said it would. And it went up. By, like, twenty something times if I’m remembering properly.

Again, in this scenario you are the person who read Situational Awareness (the paper) and said “Yes, I agree AI is more powerful than the nuclear bomb and will render the world unrecognizable before the decade is out. And I want my investments into the hedge fund version of that view”.

Now those stocks go down, so the fund goes down.

Let me ask you - do these LPs seem like the type of people that are going to become bearish on AI because SK Hynix got cut in half in six weeks? The people who likely regard “I’m going long TQQQ” levels of tech bullishness the same way normal people view investing into a muni bond fund?

Yeah...I would not expect many of them are calling Mr. Ash Burner to complain right now. Some people don’t realize how insane being up 2200% since inception (in 2024) is. To put that into perspective, if you invested $100M with SALP at inception and wiped out ninety percent in July, your investment would be worth $230M.

I think it’s probable the LPs will BTFD. Situational Awareness is going to get the money they’re asking for. And, once it’s in, they’ll take off their (likely short dated) hedges because they’re not at risk of getting liquidated by their prime, meaning the market makers that sold them the hedges will cover their delta hedge on what’s probably quite a lot of notional exposure. And at the same time, they will be deploying that capital into what they think is “the best buying opportunity since April 2025”.

I don’t think @leopoldasch is in trouble so much as he’s likely to raise the capital he’s asking for, which would mean it’s more likely now that Leopold causes the bottom than causes AI to continue going down.

If there’s something I’m missing that would cause this cohort of LPs who are AI-super-believers that are likely still up significantly on their SALP investment to decide that they would rather not buy the dip, then, sure, every stock even vaguely AI-smelling is probably going to Hades. But…”

The believers are not going to stop believing. And thankfully for everyone, the hardcore believers have way more money than the pessimists who sound smart but never make money.

Chris Camillo said it best: “Forced deleveraging fueled by AI confusion and misinformation rarely lasts. The rebound is going to be violent. The goal is simple: stay solvent long enough to participate.”

Don’t play with fire. Don’t get liquidated. Don’t panic. And don’t get emotional. Artificial intelligence is going to positively impact every industry in the world. This is a true supercycle that will create trillions of dollars in value for the people who are smart enough to take risk, but prudent enough not to get shaken out with the volatility.

I am not dumb enough to ever attempt calling a market bottom, but there are signs that we are closer to the bottom than most realize. For example, JPMorgan put out a note this week showing “that most leveraged ETFs in the Korean stock market have been liquidated and estimated that hedge funds’ deleveraging is also about 90% complete.”

Timing market tops and bottoms is a fruitless exercise. Instead, I suggest you take notes from the young investors who invented the phrase “buy the fucking dip” or otherwise known as BTFD. When stocks go down, they pour capital into the market.

They have been convinced that stocks only go up over the long-run. And while that may sound crazy to some people, it has proven to be an excellent strategy over the last decade, so I don’t think that will change any time soon.

Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Why Bitcoin Wins No Matter What Congress Does

I sat down with Polina to discuss why socialism — both explicit and implicit — is the biggest threat to investor portfolios, and why the economy feels painful despite the stock market hitting all-time highs.

We also discuss bitcoin, the Clarity Act, and Google's AI spending bet.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – Get a slice of $160,000 with their Community Appreciation event. T&Cs apply True DeFi Democratized Prime yielding ~8.5% APY. They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Crypto Backed Loan today. Figure Lending LLC dba Figure (NMLS 1717824)

2. Arch Public’s platform automates your trading strategy beyond DCA for equities, commodities, ETFs, and crypto. With advanced inputs that reflect your own intentions, Arch Public supports smarter entries, exits, and opportunities in volatile markets. Connect with their team, try the product for free, and see how agentic trading can work for you, with Arch Public!

3. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

4. BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.

5. BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.

6. mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.

7. TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you’re ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!

8. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

Most companies are already spending on search, social, and display ads. But many are still underestimating TikTok for Business.

With 200M+ monthly active users in the U.S. and 51% unique reach, TikTok for Business delivers audiences you can’t reach on other platforms. In 2025 alone, 11.8 million crypto-related videos were published on the platform. The conversation is already happening there. The question is whether your brand is part of it.

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To investors,

I fundamentally believe socialism is the largest risk to investors’ portfolios over the next 20 years. There are two types of socialism that I am worried about: explicit and implicit socialism.

First, explicit socialism can be seen on full display in New York City by Mamdani. He is promising free buses and childcare, while laying out plans for five city-run grocery stores. He claimed yesterday that the grocery stores will sell every item in the store for 30% less than the retail price at other stores.

Here is Mamdani’s plan:

“Today, I am proud to announce a collection of essential staples that will be predictably 30% cheaper at all five of our city-run grocery stores. This core set of goods will include all fresh produce, meat, and seafood, along with 20 other essential items like cheese, milk, and bread.

Here’s how it will work. Once a month, our five city-run grocery stores will set prices for this core set of goods at 30% below typical retail prices. No exceptions, no gimmicks. The savings will last for the entire month. That means no weekly fluctuations or sticker shock at the checkout line—not for our seniors living on fixed incomes, nor for the parents who rely on a regular supply of apple slices to keep toddler tantrums at bay.”

He is hoping we ignore the fact that the only way for the government to do this is for the bureaucrats to hemorrhage money like a gun shot victim laying on the operating table. And this doesn’t even get into what the mayor plans to do when the stores are overrun with demand and he has to choose how to ration to food? Who gets priority? Do we create a list based on race, wealth status, gender, or some other socialist construct that is untethered from reality?

If we are able to navigate those impossible questions, then the government will have to deal with individuals buying the food at a discount only to resell it at market rates elsewhere. How are they going to stop those free market actors? Will they outlaw selling food?! You never know what could happen when a lunatic is in charge of economic policy, especially when he has never had to run a business, employ people, or think about the long-term consequences of government’s involvement in private industry.

Remember, the government makes things more expensive, private companies make things less expensive.

This explicit socialism experiment being run by Mamdani has been tried over and over again throughout history, but it never works. Just ask the Russian or Venezuelan immigrants who fled to America over the last few decades because there was literally no food on the shelves in the grocery stores.

But explicit socialism is easy to spot and easy to argue against. History is on our side. It is the implicit socialism that is harder to recognize and likely a much bigger threat to Americans’ investment portfolio.

This implicit socialism shows up in the form of money printing. Republicans and Democrats are both guilty of participating in the destruction of US dollar purchasing power.

This money is printed and handed out across the economy. Wealthy people get government contracts, subsidies, and a persistent bid in certain financial markets. The social safety net in America directs hundreds of billions of dollars to a variety of government services, NGOs, and a significant amount of fraud.

So much of politics has become an argument over who gets the pleasure of receiving the money printed by the government. This may not be labelled socialism, but it is just as negative as Mamdani’s ridiculous policies on the local level.

Investors are directly in the cross-hairs of this double-team from the extremes of both political parties. Some people want to use explicit socialism to redistribute wealth, while relying on the government to artificially manipulate prices lower. Other people want to print money and hand it out like candy on Halloween.

This means inflation runs hot, purchasing power evaporates, and investors are forced to take on more risk as they stretch for a real return on their investment. This is the biggest risk over the next two decades in my mind and I don’t see it dissipating any time soon. In fact, every data point is telling us that the problem is going to get much worse.

So my suggestion is to buckle up for the ride and create a portfolio that is insulated from the insanity that is coming fast. There are many assets you can use to protect yourself, but I continue to reiterate the Crazy Uncle portfolio of land, gold, bitcoin, and guns.

This may not be popular right now, but eventually people will realize why they need these assets over the coming years. Hope you have a great day. I will talk to everyone next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Wall Street's Top AI Bull Reveals the Real Bottleneck (It's Not Chips)

Dan Ives is the Partner and Senior Managing Director at Yorkville Ives, a new merchant bank he's building.

In this conversation, we break down the AI trade—Chinese open-source models, Anthropic's slowing revenue growth, the biggest bottlenecks in chips, memory, and energy, and the political battles over data centers.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public’s platform automates your trading strategy beyond DCA for equities, commodities, ETFs, and crypto. With advanced inputs that reflect your own intentions, Arch Public supports smarter entries, exits, and opportunities in volatile markets. Connect with their team, try the product for free, and see how agentic trading can work for you, with Arch Public!

3. TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you’re ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!

4. BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.

5. BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.

6. mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.

7. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

8. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

Legendary VC investor Tim Draper bought 29,656 BTC at $632 in 2014. That trade is up roughly 100x. Now, he’s backing a new venture called mogul.

mogul is a revolutionary real estate investment platform that tokenizes property ownership on the blockchain. The mogul founders built Goldman Sachs’s institutional single-family rental program and deployed over $1B to this strategy. Then, they left to bring that same institutional strategy to investors like you and me.

To date, they’ve launched 100+ properties and averaged an 18.8% annual IRR, which is ~3x higher than competitors.

What you get: ownership in institutional-quality rental properties. Monthly rental income. Real-time appreciation. Tax benefits. No tenant calls.

Long story short: Draper backed it. The founders built the model at Goldman. Now you can access it.1

Check Out Their Latest Properties

To investors,

The S&P 500 is up 8% year-to-date and the Nasdaq has gained 11% in the same timeframe. The perma bears don’t like nice things though, so they are all doing their best impressions of Michael Burry in 2007.

“Bubble! A crash is coming! The next global financial crisis is upon us!”

These are examples of the sentiment coming from the pessimist crowd. The media is not immune from this nonsense either. Here is a list of recent headlines from media outlets:

1. New York Times: “The A.I. bubble is coming for your retirement account.”

2. Axios: “Revenge of the A.I. bubble”

3. The Guardian: “When the AI bubble bursts, what will Australia do with the tools it built? One man thinks he has the answer.”

4. The Atlantic: “The A.I. bubble is no ordinary bubble”

5. Financial Times: “Portfolio construction in the shadow of the A.I. bubble”

6. The Telegraph: “The real AI bubble is dangerously hidden.”

7. Investing.com: “SK Hynix’s US share premium flashes another AI bubble warning”

The funniest part about these headlines is they are written as if the A.I. bubble is a widely accepted fact and now everyone is just trying to figure out what to do about it. These folks couldn’t be more wrong though. I have the data to prove it too.

Adam Kobeissi shows “the S&P 500’s net profit margin is on track to surge to 15.7% for Q2 2026, the highest in data going back to 2009. If the current margin holds, it will mark the 10th consecutive quarterly increase.

Meanwhile, 86% of reporting S&P 500 firms have so far beaten EPS estimates, while 80% have exceeded revenue expectations. AI is driving historic earnings growth.”

These are truly breathtaking numbers. The largest companies in America are driving net profit margin growth at the highest rate in nearly 20 years. That isn’t hype and it isn’t future dreams. This is a positive development in the answer to one of the most important questions on Wall Street: how much money are you making?

As if the Q2 numbers weren’t good enough, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick points out estimated 2027 earnings-per-share (EPS) has officially cracked $400. If this is accurate, EPS would have experienced a mind-boggling 4x increase since 2012.

So you want to know why company stock prices are skyrocketing? Because they are making 4x more money than they were less than 15 years ago.

If you continue pulling on that thread, the P/E multiples right now are not even in the same zip code as the 2000 tech bubble. Mike Zaccardi writes “Nasdaq 100 P/E was 86x in May 2001... its 24x today.”

Again, I am not saying there won’t be a bubble that pops at some point in the future, but I am showing you data that proves we are nowhere near that bubble right now. It is your choice to believe the data or not.

Lastly, before I let you go, I will leave you with this chart from Merrill Lynch (which originally was Ryan Detrick’s idea I am pretty sure). This shows “the S&P 500 has gained around 110% since October 2022. Historical comparisons suggest the rally may still have room to run, as bull markets since 1949 have averaged around 192% returns over around 5.5 year”

The pessimists are loud. They sound smart. But always remember, they rarely make money. And I don’t think the historical trend is going to change any time soon.

Hope everyone has a great start to your week. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Bitcoin's Turn Is Next — The Easy Money AI Trade Is Over?

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we break down the AI trade — Chinese open-source models catching up, Google's massive CapEx bet, and the memory shortage bottlenecking it all. We also cover Travis Kalanick's stealth robotics empire, what AGI in three years means for jobs and the Fed, and where Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the Clarity Act go next.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public’s platform automates your trading strategy beyond DCA for equities, commodities, ETFs, and crypto. With advanced inputs that reflect your own intentions, Arch Public supports smarter entries, exits, and opportunities in volatile markets. Connect with their team, try the product for free, and see how agentic trading can work for you, with Arch Public!

3. TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you’re ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!

4. BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.

5. BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.

6. mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.

7. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

8. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

9. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

The 60/40 portfolio has been a staple of financial portfolios for decades. The inverse correlation between stocks and bonds were long thought to protect investors, regardless of the market environment. That promise has essentially evaporated into thin air and smart investors are rightfully abandoning the 60/40 portfolio in droves.

As correlations between stocks and bonds have risen to significantly higher levels, bonds are now amplifying moves in equities rather than mitigating them. This means the 60/40 portfolio has the opposite effect than what was intended.

On top of the lack of risk-mitigation, bond performance has been atrocious on its own. Take TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) as an example. The fund is down almost 50% in the last 5 years. That is the nominal loss, which is only exasperated by the insane levels of inflation and loss of purchasing power in the last half-decade.

So what have investors been doing to combat the problem? Private credit.

Trillions of dollars have poured into various flavors of this opaque asset class in search of higher yields. Some capital has come from individuals looking for a bond solution, while other capital has flowed due to increased banking regulations after the Global Financial Crisis. Regardless of the reason, private credit went from a niche industry to the mainstream, but recent pressures in private credit now have people questioning the accuracy of portfolio values, resilience to downturns, and the quality of underlying companies.

I don’t have a strong opinion on the industry at large. My view is that some private credit portfolios are high quality and others are time bombs waiting to explode. If you are allocated to funds in the vertical, you should quickly figure out which bucket you are in.

Unfortunately, most individual investors are boxed out from participating in these funds. They don’t know where to get access, nor may they qualify for high minimums or other filters. So the question becomes what should they do if they are facing the same bond problem I discussed earlier?

This is where I think on-chain yield generation will become an interesting option for investors over the coming years. The argument crypto folks would make is that yield generated through transparent, auditable mechanisms like staking, DeFi-based lending, liquidity provisioning, and funding-rate arbitrage will be superior to government bonds or private credit’s current form.

It is hard to disagree with their perspective.

What investor doesn’t want their position marked in real-time, along with a transparent view on how and when the yield is being generated? I am not an expert in on-chain finance, but my understanding is that most of this promised yield is delta-neutral and designed to harvest funding rates, lending spreads, and trading fees rather than to bet on the direction of individual assets.

One group that I think intimately understands this shift in yield investing is Abra, which is run by Bill Barhydt. They have created USDAF, a dollar-yield strategy that seeks to generate yield through delta-neutral on-chain strategies.

You can learn more about USDAF and their other products by clicking here.

I see more people talking about the death of the 60/40 portfolio, but I haven’t heard a lot of talk about what the solution is. I don’t see a world where people give up on yield. Instead, I think investors will seek superior ways to generate yield, including more transparency, more accurate marks, and more robust resilience to the whims of our government.

Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you on Monday.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Bitcoin Debate: Pomp DESTROYS Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff is the host of The Peter Schiff Show podcast and a longtime economist and gold advocate.

In this conversation, we break down real inflation versus the official CPI, the Fed's political motivations, and whether AI and tariffs are inflationary or deflationary. We also cover the Iran war's impact on oil, Social Security's looming collapse, and a five-year bet on bitcoin versus gold.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public’s platform automates your trading strategy beyond DCA for equities, commodities, ETFs, and crypto. With advanced inputs that reflect your own intentions, Arch Public supports smarter entries, exits, and opportunities in volatile markets. Connect with their team, try the product for free, and see how agentic trading can work for you, with Arch Public!

3. TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you’re ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!

4. BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.

5. BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.

6. mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.

7. Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.

8. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

9. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

10. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

Big updates from Arch Public: Their agentic trading platform now automates strategies across stocks, commodities, ETFs, and crypto!

Whether you’re rotating into AI stocks, gold, the S&P 500, or Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 with institutional-grade automation — while keeping zero custody of your funds.

Hands-free execution. Emotionless discipline. True multi-asset automation that lets you focus on the big picture instead of constantly watching the screen.

We’ve known the Arch Public team for a while now and continue to be impressed by how they’re building real utility for investors. If you’re looking for a smarter way to manage your portfolio across all major asset classes, I recommend checking them out.

Start Trading Now

To investors,

My businesses have experienced first-hand the problems with the legacy financial system. We have had businesses debanked or restricted. I am not saying that in a metaphorical way. Some of our companies were literally kicked out as customers because of the industries we operated in. Large financial institutions have refused to open bank accounts in the past or they have put insane restrictions on the services we can access.

At one point, it became a weekly problem we had to solve. A business that I owned or had invested in would be dealing with some new challenge. It didn’t matter how much money we had deposited at the banks, nor how influential our contacts at the banks were. We had committed the ultimate sin — we were taking risk by being ambitious.

The legacy organizations hate risk. They hide behind the regulators and claim there is nothing they can do. But it became obvious to me that this wasn’t a story about risk, but rather a story about dinosaur organizations who didn’t understand new technologies, new industries, or the need for new startups.

It wasn’t worth complaining though. That wasn’t going to get us anywhere. In fact, it would have made the problem worse. So instead, I started looking for an alternative solution. That is when I came across Palmer Luckey’s new company, Erebor.

They describe themselves with the following:

“Erebor is a nationally chartered bank purpose-built for the innovation economy. The company serves businesses across aerospace, defense, manufacturing, hardware, energy, and artificial intelligence. Erebor combines traditional deposit-taking and lending with a differentiated treasury management platform providing customers with a menu of yield across checking, savings, U.S. Treasuries, corporate bonds, stablecoins, and other instruments — all within a single regulated banking relationship. Founded in 2025 and headquartered in Columbus, Ohio, Erebor is the definitive financial partner for companies building the future.”

The thought of a one-year old technology startup getting fully licensed as a national bank would have been unfathomable a decade ago. But regulators and politicians have realized that we need new types of institutions if we want America to continue being the global leader on innovation and technology.

One market commentator explained the importance of Erebor with this explanation:

“The emergence of Erebor Bank is a direct reaction to the extreme volatility that characterized the venture banking sector between 2023 and 2025. Following the failure of legacy institutions that once anchored the startup ecosystem, founders often found themselves navigating a fragmented banking environment where traditional commercial lenders lacked the technical depth to underwrite complex hardware or unconventional assets. Erebor was designed to solve this underwriting gap by internalizing both the regulatory authority of a national charter and the engineering expertise required to value the physical tools of modern industry.⁴

The bank operates as a B2B relationship institution with a heavy focus on founders and investors within the innovation economy. Its core value proposition lies in its regulated balance sheet, which allows it to earn spread income and service revenue while providing stablecoin-native services. By serving high-risk use cases that traditional banks avoid, such as defense-tech and AI infrastructure, Erebor attracts deposits that support deep credit relationships. This specialized strategy creates a thick capital cushion intended to signal long-term stability to clients who have seen other niche lenders fail.”

Given the importance of Erebor as a key piece of infrastructure for the innovation economy, I am excited to support them. Today we are revealing that ProCap Financial, our agentic finance company traded on Nasdaq under ticker BRR, has become one of the first public companies to open an account with Erebor.

We are looking forward to working with the Erebor for more of our banking needs as they continue building out their services. Technology companies operating at the tip of the spear need banking infrastructure that understands where the world is going. I have found the Erebor team to be the exact type of partner we have been looking for.

Hopefully the rise of Erebor will inspire more entrepreneurs to tackle hard problems in regulated industries. The hard thing is worth doing if it can unlock more innovation from millions of companies.

If anyone would like to inquire about moving over to Erebor, feel free to reach out to Noah Pompan at noah@erebor.bank

I hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

The Investor Betting BILLIONS on AI

Nick Grossman is a General Partner at Union Square Ventures.

In this conversation, we break down his “Rebel Alliance” thesis for AI — why he believes the industry is too big for one or two companies to dominate. We also discuss USV’s internal multi-agent platform, model routing economics, AI’s growing role in venture capital and financial markets, data privacy risks, and what happens to jobs and society as agents get smarter.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public’s platform automates your trading strategy beyond DCA for equities, commodities, ETFs, and crypto. With advanced inputs that reflect your own intentions, Arch Public supports smarter entries, exits, and opportunities in volatile markets. Connect with their team, try the product for free, and see how agentic trading can work for you, with Arch Public!

3. TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you’re ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!

4. BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.

5. BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.

6. mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.

7. Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.

8. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

9. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

10. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

The AI industry is moving at warp speed. Every day there is a new announcement about a company, project, or funding round that is supposed to be bigger, better, and more profitable than the last one. At the tip of the spear is the largest data center project in American history, which happens to count Kevin O’Leary as one of its most famous partners.

My wife, Polina Pompliano, recently wrote a long-form profile on Kevin’s rise to fame and riches. She specifically talked to him and his critics about the data center project, including the death threats he receives and his response to the detractors.

I have included an excerpt from the profile below. You can read the full article by clicking here.

O’Leary can’t remember the first death threat, only that they’ve become a recurring part of his life. They arrive in every form imaginable — handwritten letters, emails, direct messages, and public social media posts. “I mean, it’s fucking nuts,” he says.

The latest wave started after O’Leary decided to enter the AI race.

While many investors are betting on artificial intelligence software, O’Leary is betting on the infrastructure that underpins it. His proposed Stratos Project would build a massive AI and cloud-computing campus in Box Elder County, Utah — a development supporters see as essential to America’s technological future and critics see as an existential threat to the region’s land, water, and power resources.

As the fight intensified, the dispute became increasingly personal. O’Leary accused several prominent critics, including Utah political strategist Gabrielle Finlayson, of acting as proxies for the Chinese government.

Weeks later, he publicly acknowledged he had “no evidence” to support the allegation. Finlayson is one of the plaintiffs now suing O’Leary and Fox News for defamation over the allegations. “I spent years building my reputation, my business, and the trust of my community,” Finlayson said in a statement announcing the lawsuit. “In just weeks, Kevin O’Leary tore it all down with lies.”

In a statement, O’Leary’s attorney Jeffrey Neiman said O’Leary intends to “defend this lawsuit vigorously” and may bring counterclaims. He called the suit a “cash grab,” arguing that the plaintiffs declined O’Leary’s invitation to discuss the project and used his remarks to raise money. “We look forward to discovery and uncovering the facts related to the misinformation campaign against the data center in Utah,” Neiman said.

Finlayson has referred to O’Leary as “the Canadian who is trying to ruin Utah.” Speaking on a podcast, she said opposition to the proposed AI data centers had become “so strong and so severe,” adding: “These folks don’t always know what’s going to come for them when they decide to put a giant thing no one wants in the middle of people’s homes.”

It’s not the first time O’Leary has landed at the center of a public firestorm. He tells me that he says exactly what he thinks and accepts whatever follows.

When cryptocurrency exchange FTX collapsed in 2022, O’Leary became one of its most visible casualties. FTX had paid him $15 million to serve as a spokesperson, and suddenly he found himself answering questions on national television about one of the largest financial scandals in recent memory.

O’Leary remembers seeing the word “fraud” in relation to FTX flash on the screen during a Fox News segment, and he checked his account to find the money was gone. He called FTX co-founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried and reportedly asked, “What’s going on with the accounts, Sam?”

O’Leary was one of the last people to speak with Bankman-Fried, so he had to testify to Congress about what he knew. “It was the first crisis that I’d ever been through,” he says. “And then I remembered something my mother said: ‘Just tell the truth, and you never have to remember what you said.’”

The first few days were brutal. “When shit was flying everywhere and the phone was just ringing, ringing, ringing, I said, ‘Fuck, what a nightmare,’” he says. “Why am I the poster boy for this when there’s 20 other guys that took money?”

Many celebrities who promoted FTX distanced themselves after the collapse. But O’Leary doubled down. He was on TV every day defending his prior involvement with the company.

When I ask him why he kept going on air, he answers as if stating the obvious: “Because I hadn’t been charged with anything.” The experience, he says, taught him to distinguish the signal from the noise. “The media cycle for the big stories is 48 hours,” he says. “After that, it starts to burn off.”

In interviews immediately after FTX failed, he refused to condemn Bankman-Fried.

CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin pressed him directly: “Kevin, you are an actor in this drama, and you had a front-row seat to Bankman-Fried up until the very end. What do you think happened? Do you think this was a fraud?” To which Kevin responded that he doesn’t have all the facts yet.

Financier Anthony Scaramucci, who was also caught in the fallout from FTX’s collapse, remembers feeling “shell-shocked” by the backlash. O’Leary, he says, remained steadfast. “He defended Sam, and he didn’t care about the public opinion,” Scaramucci says.

In a 2022 Senate hearing, O’Leary argued that FTX competitor Binance had intentionally driven FTX out of business while benefiting from what he viewed as lax regulatory oversight that allowed it to dominate the market.

I ask whether experiences like FTX and the death threats surrounding the Stratos Project have made O’Leary more cautious about what he says publicly.

They have not. “The brand is about being authentic — even though it’s controversial,” O’Leary says. “That’s the brand.”

This was an excerpt from Polina Pompliano’s profile of Kevin O’Leary titled Kevin O’Leary Is Happy Playing the Villain.

You can read the entire article by clicking here. I promise it will be worth your time.

Read Kevin O'Leary Profile

Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

The Investor Betting BILLIONS on AI

Nick Grossman is a General Partner at Union Square Ventures.

In this conversation, we break down his "Rebel Alliance" thesis for AI — why he believes the industry is too big for one or two companies to dominate. We also discuss USV's internal multi-agent platform, model routing economics, AI's growing role in venture capital and financial markets, data privacy risks, and what happens to jobs and society as agents get smarter.

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

The entire US economy runs on the assumption that the Federal Reserve is targeting 2% inflation. That number is supposed to create enough dollar debasement to incentivize consumption and investment, while not being so destructive that it financially hurts the average American.

You can throw the academic theory out the window though.

The Fed has been running inflation at approximately 4% per year since 2019. That is double their stated target, but more importantly it appears to be an intentional structural change that is being done in stealth. If you listen to various Fed Chairman’s words, you will hear them remain committed to the 2% target, but if you look at their actions, you will see a completely different story.

Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello points out that inflation has been significantly above the Fed’s target for 64 straight months, yet the Fed is still expanding their balance sheet in the last 7 months to the tune of more than $200 billion.

You don’t expand your balance sheet while inflation is running hot unless one of two things are true: 1) you believe that a significant deflationary force is on the horizon and you are expanding the balance sheet in preparation, or 2) you have unofficially decided to run the economy hotter than your stated 2% inflation target.

While I believe AI, robotics, deportations, and tariffs are deflationary, I do not believe the Fed is in the business of expanding their balance sheet in anticipation of those forces. In fact, the Fed has proven to be one of the most reactive organizations in America, which has been a big driver of the mistakes they have made over the last two decades.

So the only logical conclusion I can come to is the Fed has decided internally they are comfortable with inflation running at 3% or 4% for the years to come. If that is true, investors have to update their mental model on how to invest their capital.

I used to jokingly say the Crazy Uncle portfolio would be a great bet for investors. This would be what your crazy uncle talks about at Thanksgiving dinner, which consists of land, gold, bitcoin, and ammunition. Take Texas Pacific Land Corporation (Nasdaq: TPL) as one example. The company has increased 150% in the last 5 years.

General Dynamics, one of the largest defense companies in the world, has approximately doubled in the same time frame.

Bitcoin has struggled in the last two years, including a negative return, but that followed a substantial run up in the years prior. However, gold has been the big surprise to most investors, especially when you realize that gold’s return has outperformed the S&P 500 going back 8 of the last 10 years if you held until today.

The reason I call attention to these types of assets is that I am convinced the Fed has made a change in strategy, but they are smart enough to know they can’t publicly admit it. The American central bank must keep the charade of 2% inflation target. They haven’t succeeded in that mandate in a half decade and I don’t see a world where they are going to get back to 2% in the official metrics any time soon.

Thankfully, for all investors, investment assets are going to do well in a persistently higher inflation environment. But it is important to understand that non-productive assets may continue to outperform productive assets in that environment, which will break the brains of many traditionalists.

Like I said, if the Fed has made a strategic change, you will have to update your mental model.

Hope everyone has a great start to their week. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Bitcoin's Next Move Depends On One Fed Decision

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we break down the AI stock slowdown, why China’s new Kimi K3 model is upending the AI trade, and the hidden cultural bias baked into these systems. We also discuss the cooler inflation report, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s early moves, Bitcoin’s reaction, and why robotics could be the next big AI trade.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public’s platform automates your trading strategy beyond DCA for equities, commodities, ETFs, and crypto. With advanced inputs that reflect your own intentions, Arch Public supports smarter entries, exits, and opportunities in volatile markets. Connect with their team, try the product for free, and see how agentic trading can work for you, with Arch Public!

3. TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you’re ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!

4. BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.

5. BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.

6. mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.

7. Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.

8. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

9. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

10. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.