The Quantum-Human Convergence

Last week I went rafting. Our captain called himself Cheese. He called us Socrates So Great. And it was one blazing adventure!

The Socrates program is an intellectual marathon disguised as a mountain retreat organized by the Aspen Institute in Colorado. We spent 3 days plunged into values-based Socratic dialogue, tackling heavy religious, philosophic and social readings, and debating big-picture ideas with leaders across different industries.

Essentially a room full of very smart people that are fundamentally different from me; it was exhilarating and mentally exhausting.

Socratic dialogue is a cooperative, question-and-answer method of discussion used to explore underlying beliefs, stimulate critical thinking, and illuminate complex moral or philosophical concepts. Developed in Ancient Greece and recorded prominently by writers like Plato and Xenophon, it relies on disciplined inquiry rather than debate or persuasion.

The 2026 Socrates cohort formed a multi-disciplinary group specifically curated to examine AI, human identity, ethics, and societal structure from a wide variety of practical and theoretical vantage points.

The seminar constructed a narrative arc that moved from dethronement (Session I) to philosophical salvage (Session II) , and finally to what remains irreplaceable (Session III) covering readings debating if AI can match or exceed human functional performance (generating language, reasoning, co-creating art) without a body or mortality, were our functional abilities ever what made us special? Can traditional philosophical anchors, moral law, political action, and existential limits, rescue human dignity from technological reductionism? And, after the noise of technological capability clears, what essential facets of human experience remain unreplicable?

Coming at this as someone who lives in the quantum universe 24/7/365 it turned out that this was a NP-hard problem.

Introduction

On Friday night we were greeted at a dinner reception by Laura and Gary Lauder, who created this program 30 years ago. What immediately set the tone for me personally was the welcome speech by the Socrates executive director - Danny Harris. He urged us to adhere to 3 rules for the program:

1. Use ‘I’ not ‘We’

2. Be present in the moment

3. Don’t reaffirm what others said. Be original and authentic.

I felt a strong connection with Danny’s words and would fast find out what a challenge these rules would be.

While the ‘I’ is ingrained into my DNA to a fault, and repeating the words of others isn’t in my nature, the moment is something that I have been studying intensely for the past 2 years. Specifically the concept of Kshana, rooted in ancient commentaries on the Yoga Sutras by Maharishi Vyasa, a kshana represents an ultra-short, discrete moment of time, the duration it takes for an elementary spinning particle to shift its orientation. Recent theoretical explorations link this discrete instant to subatomic physics parameters like electron spin and the fine-structure constant.

As it would turn out, most of my peers had different strengths/challenges, which became a road bump to our Socratic dialogue on day one.

Maybe AI and Quantum just don’t go together well…

The Architecture of the Authentic Self

I will not recount the sessions or our animated off-hour debates here but rather describe how it affected me - and what it means for my decision making in quantum tech.

Every group suffers from dynamics and the opportunity is how to position yourself vis a vis. I have never been one to conform or follow and I often suspect stark group behavior: people defaulting to heuristics, dramatization, overconfidence and reactive opinions.

And my knee jerk reaction is to counter with a search for my own core identity, anchored ultimately in ruthless authenticity.

In this end, this is my journey and to me it comes down to my own discovery. At least that was the mind set with which I entered Socrates.

• Stripping the Ego (Iris Murdoch): Murdoch describes how the human ego naturally generates “convincingly coherent but false pictures of the world” driven by vanity and self-protection. I often identify this exact mechanism in group settings. The personal mandate from the seminar is to practice Murdochian “Attention”, the quiet, disciplined redirection of vision away from self-aggrandizement and toward objective reality.

• Beyond Transactional Validation (Soloveitchik & Taylor): The question of “Brauche ich Bestätigung von anderen wer ich bin?” comes to mind; Soloveitchik categorizes the pursuit of external acclaim as the mark of Adam I, the functional builder who measures worth through power and social recognition. Adam II, by contrast, finds identity through internal integrity and direct relationship with truth. Authenticity requires decoupling your self-worth from having others “say it for me”.

And this is where it gets interesting to me.

As a global technology executive navigating market strategies, quantum ecosystems, and investor landscapes, I find that even the most sophisticated human systems tend to default to risk aversion (Norm > Risiko), short-term comfort (Status Quo > Unsicherheit), and vanity metrics (Gefühl > Impact).

Strategic Implications for Leadership in Quantum Tech

What does this mean for me when I need to gain support from others in setting policy in quantum tech? What does this mean for others who do want to take influence in quantum tech?

In the high stakes narrative of quantum, which we are writing as we are collectively inventing it, this is the question that I constantly confront knowing there is no good answer.

But Socrates provided me with a few invaluable reminders:

1. Navigating the “Brave New World” Trait: In Huxley’s Brave New World, Mustapha Mond reveals that society exchanged nobility, deep truth, and real art for stability, comfort, and immediate satisfaction.

   1. In corporate and tech ecosystems, leaders often default to comfortable consensus rather than facing deep uncertainty. Your role as a leader is to resist this operational “soma” and maintain the tolerance for ambiguity required to build foundational technologies.

2. Action as Natality (Hannah Arendt): Arendt distinguishes between mere labor (routine maintenance) and action (initiating something radically new against statistical probabilities).

   1. True executive leadership is an act of Arendtian natality, bringing new possibilities into the world through distinct, transparent, and courageous decision-making.

This cannot happen in a vacuum and requires one to take others along on the journey - especially those who I might least understand or agree with.

It is funny that as the co-inventor of “decision intelligence” for quantum tech, I myself need to work on my own decision making intelligence every day. Considering the national and commercial importance of quantum it is a privilege to be reminded of that.

Quantum is a discovery, not an innovation

To my dismay, much of the sessions discussed humanity in the age of AI. I guess this bothered me because we all know how special and much better quantum is (sarcasm is bad, I know).

Where classical AI, attempts to simulate the mind through deterministic bit manipulation or probabilistic statistical matching, quantum information science redefines the physical substrate of reality itself:

This was a reminder of how important perspective is and to understand those of others. There isn’t just one truth and while others zoomed in, I zoomed out:

1. Contextuality & Non-Locality vs. Reductionism: Classical AI tries to break the world down into discrete, context-free data points, a method Dreyfus proved fails to capture human everyday context.

   1. Quantum mechanics demonstrates that physical states are intrinsically contextual and interconnected. Quantum computing mirrors nature’s holistic processing far more closely than classical binary logic ever can.

2. The Measurement Problem and Human Agency: In quantum mechanics, the system remains in a superposition of possibilities until an observation or measurement occurs.

   1. This provides a striking physical analogue to Iris Murdoch’s philosophy of human consciousness : the human mind is not an automated calculation engine, but an active, observing agency whose quality of “attention” collapses potential into actual reality.

To be human in the age of quantum and AI is to move past the illusion that human value lies in computation, functional efficiency, or external social status.

In an era where classical AI can mimic language and generate artificial noise, the human being remains the essential source of intent, moral judgment, and genuine awareness.

What was funny about this process is how it secretly worked its magic. A couple got married on the last day of the program (and asked me to be their witness. Me?????). Some reached out to invite me for more one on one discussion. I’ve already attended work events with fellow Socrates. And am writing a newsletter not about money or power and quantum, but humanity and quantum.

Magic.

It was at our closing dinner at 9,500 ft that Danny encapsulated what it means to be human when he said that as we end this journey together “be graceful with yourself.”

Think about it, when was the last time that you were graceful to yourself?

That you did something not because you had to, because society expected it from you, because it’s a habit, to party, drink, or socialize, because it might make you money or bring you fame. But simply with the hope to capture a moment for yourself. And did so with grace towards yourself.

I was unable to agree with my fellow Socrates much of the time or even just understand them. But it is their deep introspection, their willingness to share, their vulnerability and their unique stories that created a wonderful human moment high up in the mountains of Colorado. And it seems some of us might even become new friends. And AI sure can’t do that.

Being human starts with oneself in all the small moments. Thank you to all Socrates So Great from the bottom of my heart!

Dear quantum friends,

I was 9 years old when my dad came home from a long business trip to announce to my mom and I that he had received two job offers - one in Sudan, and one in Belgium. According to my oversized atlas Belgium was a lot closer to Germany and I spent the rest of my schooling at l’École Européenne de Bruxelles I - an enclave for kids of EU officiaries - while my farther climbed the ranks at the European Commission.

I know Brussels. I understand the EU. I love Europe.

A united Europe with a well-funded, strategically coordinated quantum technology program could become a formidable global player — driving innovation, fostering economic resilience, and bolstering the EU’s collective defense posture. It also represents a historic inflection point: Europe can either seize the initiative to be a quantum front-runner or risk ceding technological sovereignty to the U.S. or China for good.

Which one will it be?

Europe enters the quantum decade with enviable structural assets. It already hosts roughly a quarter of the world’s quantum‑focused companies and, by our counts, leads every other region in the number of deployed quantum computers, from ion‑trap machines in Innsbruck to superconducting prototypes in Paris‑Saclay. Those machines sit atop a research lattice funded by Brussels and the member states: Horizon Europe calls, national flagship programmes and defence budgets funnel billions into joint labs that stretch from Copenhagen to Barcelona. The continent’s academic engine is equally formidable — Sweden alone graduates more quantum engineers per capita than any other country — while formal collaboration channels ensure that European scientists plug directly into allied efforts rather than working in isolation.

Where Europe struggles is the brutal arithmetic of commercial scale‑up. Venture and corporate cash chased quantum deals in the United States at roughly triple the European rate last year; on the continent overall investment actually fell forty per cent, leaving many start‑ups financially fragile just as their American counterparts were closing nine‑figure rounds. The shortage of home‑grown late‑stage funds means founders often look to Silicon Valley or Singapore when they need €100 million‑plus cheques, eroding the very “strategic autonomy” Brussels wants to build. Supply‑chain dependence compounds the funding gap: dilution refrigerators, high‑performance control electronics and specialist cryo‑CMOS chips are still sourced largely from outside the Union, exposing European roadmaps to export‑control whims far beyond its borders.

Yet, Europe’s deep bench of scientists could translate into genuine market leadership rather than scientific kudos alone. If it finds policy coherence.

A technology shift: the implications for Europe

Economic Impact

Europe’s quantum moment is first and foremost an economic play. A home‑grown ecosystem — stretching from cryogenic hardware labs in Delft to quantum‑software studios in Lisbon — can spin up entirely new markets that simply do not exist today. We are talking about dedicated operating systems for qubits, bespoke quantum‑grade materials, and professional services that translate spooky math into CFO‑friendly KPIs. The prize is tens of thousands of high‑skill jobs and a surge of private capital that normally migrates westward across the Atlantic or eastward across the Pacific. If Brussels moves now, those euros stay on the continent and compound in local pay cheques, tax receipts, and reinvested R&D budgets.

The spill‑overs into Europe’s flagship industries are even harder to ignore. Quantum optimisation can shave percentage points off Pan‑European logistics routes for auto suppliers; photonic‑based simulations can compress drug‑discovery timelines for Basel’s pharma giants; and quantum‑enhanced CFD models could let Airbus prototype cleaner wings in silico before a single piece of carbon fibre is laid. By federating national labs, startup accelerators, and big‑company R&D teams into a handful of “super‑clusters,” Europe prevents the chronic fragmentation that has so often dulled its tech edge. Think of a corridor that runs Paris‑Saclay ↔ Munich ↔ Ámsterdam; each node specialising in a slice of the stack but sharing talent, capital, and IP under one branded European banner. That is how you convert scattered brilliance into global competitiveness — and how you make “strategic autonomy” more than a press‑release mantra.

Defense and Security

Security chiefs already lose sleep over the day someone points a cryptographically relevant quantum computer at Europe’s encrypted archives. Being first means that day never arrives. By scaling up EuroQCI from a string of testbeds into a continent‑spanning backbone Europe can hard‑wire quantum‑secure communications into every government ministry, energy grid operator, and defence contractor. Layer in a mandatory migration path to post‑quantum cryptography and the Union inoculates itself against the retrospective decryption threat long before hostile actors bring the big iron online.

Yet resilience is only half the story; quantum is also a force‑multiplier for intelligence and deterrence. High‑dimensional optimisation can turn strategic wargaming into a living digital twin of potential flashpoints, letting planners stress‑test supply lines or missile‑defence geometries in hours instead of weeks. If member states converge on shared protocols and hardware roadmaps, that capability slots neatly into NATO command structures and the EU’s own Common Security and Defence Policy, ensuring seamless interoperability from Tallinn to Taranto. The result is a more coherent, forward‑leaning defence posture that signals to allies and adversaries alike that Europe intends to run with the technological front‑runners, not trail them.

A Historic Opportunity for Europe

Every few decades the continent gets a shot at technological reinvention on the scale of CERN or Airbus; quantum is that shot. A pan‑EU program — bigger, louder, and better coordinated than any flagship to date — can pool national budgets, academic brilliance, and industrial heft into a single roadmap that nobody can call a vanity project. One governance structure, one set of milestones, one shared procurement pipeline. That simplicity alone would cure the duplication disease that drains resources and leaves excellent science marooned in national silos. Europe’s hallmark collaboration ethos becomes a competitive weapon rather than an administrative footnote.

But quantum also lets the Union infuse cutting‑edge tech with its own values. Privacy by design, transparency, ethical AI guidelines — all can be baked into quantum standards before global norms solidify, just as GDPR set the tone for data protection. By writing the rulebook early and exporting it confidently, Europe shapes not only the market but the moral operating system of the quantum era. In geopolitical terms, that is leverage: a continent able to strike partnerships with Washington, Ottawa, Tokyo or Canberra from a position of strength, not dependence. Economically, it is the closest thing to future‑proofing Europe’s growth prospects in a century defined by digital acceleration. Get this moment right and Brussels won’t merely catch up in the global tech race; it will help define the course — and the code — by which that race is run.

A united European quantum strategy is about more than just catching up in a high-tech race: it’s a chance to reshape the continent’s industrial base, fortify its defense capabilities, and assert global leadership. The EU already has strong foundations — world-class research institutions, high-performing industrial sectors, and a history of collaborative megaprojects. By scaling investments, harmonizing efforts, and embedding a distinctly European vision of ethical and open innovation, the EU can elevate itself into a premier quantum powerhouse — one that not only competes with global leaders but sets the tone for how this transformative technology serves society at large.

What does it take to “do Europe”?

Europe is a beast and getting anything done in Brussels is as much art as science as true spookiness.

Lots has been accomplished: the European Commission directorates (CNECT, DEFIS, GROW), Parliament, the Council, and NATO’s DIANA & STO are the concentric circles of influence. QuiC, along with think‑tank voices, shapes agendas well before dossiers hit a parliamentary committee. And key stakeholders, from investors to entrepreneurs, sit in all the right meetings.

Yet, much more needs to happen to be competitive.

A permanent EU‑NATO‑industry “Quantum Security Task Force” with standing liaisons from the big coalitions could turn ad‑hoc coordination into muscle memory. And a pilot “Quantum Free Zone” (Delft‑Munich‑Paris‑Saclay is an obvious triangle) where export‑control approvals, IP incentives, and cross‑border procurement rules are streamlined for three to five years might make commercialization palpable.

Prioritize long term collaboration

A standing “Quantum Intergroup” inside the European Parliament would give MEPs a permanent forum — backed by monthly demos, boot‑camp crash courses for Commission and NATO staff, and a steady stream of one‑page briefs — to translate quantum jargon into the language of industrial policy, Green Deal targets, and collective defence. Once policymakers can see, touch, and debate a live QKD link or a climate‑model speed‑up, quantum stops being abstract science and becomes a tool they can legislate for, budget around, and defend at the ballot box.

Momentum, however, is built in the regions, so every member state needs its own headline success story — whether that’s a photonic‑chip spin‑out in Eindhoven, a QKD corridor in Bavaria, or a quantum‑sensing test range in Occitanie — tied visibly to EU funds and framed as local jobs, skills, and private investment. Feeding those case studies into Digital Innovation Hubs and EIT Digital nodes lets quantum piggy‑back on existing cluster machinery, while alignment with national flagships such as Germany’s QuNET or France’s national plan avoids the duplication that has so often blunted Europe’s tech ambitions.

Win the talent war

A credible quantum push also lives or dies on talent, which means embedding a “Quantum Skills Agenda” inside the broader European Skills Strategy. Specialized master’s tracks, technician up‑skilling courses, and Erasmus‑style lab exchanges need to sit alongside vouchers that let mid‑career engineers or cybersecurity analysts pivot into quantum roles. Diversity programs that pull women and under‑represented groups into the pipeline are not just a social add‑on — they expand a talent pool Europe cannot otherwise fill.

None of that matters without patient money for basic research, so the next Framework Program must ring‑fence quantum missions the way Horizon Europe once did for graphene. A pan‑European “Quantum Alliance,” modeled on the Battery or Hydrogen Alliances, can knit together labs, prime contractors, and supply‑chain specialists under a shared roadmap, while an EIC‑style accelerator funnels blended finance to startups that have cleared proof‑of‑concept but still face the valley of death between prototype and product.

Industrialize quantum

Commercial firepower is the other half of sovereignty. The Commission should nudge Europe’s industrial heavyweights — Airbus, Siemens, Thales — into public‑private consortia with the continent’s most nimble startups and labs, each cluster specialising in a slice of the stack, from superconducting fabrication in Saxony to photonic chips in the Île‑de‑France and middleware in the Netherlands. Structural funds can finance the hard infrastructure, while the European Investment Bank supplies patient, low‑interest capital that bridges the valley of death between prototype and product. A pan‑European deep‑tech fund, seeded with EU money but matched by private LPs, would de‑risk early‑stage bets. Governments themselves should become lead customers, issuing procurement calls that test quantum advantage in grid balancing, supply‑chain routing, or climate modelling, and backing them with showcase pilots that pull corporate laggards into the game.

Provide certainty and global guidance

The regulatory runway has to encourage, rather than stifle, that innovation. Brussels should lead global standard‑setting — through CEN, CENELEC, and ETSI — so that protocols for QKD, quantum‑safe cryptography, and hardware interoperability carry a Made‑in‑Europe stamp. Regulatory sandboxes can give early pilots room to breathe, much as they have in fintech, while a common NATO–EU rulebook for dual‑use quantum components closes export‑control loopholes without throttling legitimate research.

Leverage the momentum around defense

Defense adds urgency. A joint NATO‑EU “Quantum Security” task force — drawing on STO, DIANA, the European Defense Agency, and the Commission — can co‑fund sensing, navigation, and secure‑comms projects, spin up shared testbeds between Brussels and Norfolk, and set a rhythm of quarterly meetings that keep priorities aligned and red tape minimal. EuroQCI has to move from pilot to full continental backbone, meshing terrestrial fibre links with an accelerated IRIS² satellite constellation that carries space‑based QKD payloads. Demonstrating an operational quantum link between NATO command and an EU institution would deliver more political capital than a dozen policy papers.

On the security front, the Union must treat quantum as both a shield and a sword. The European Defence Fund can bankroll joint projects on quantum‑enhanced radar, secure timing, and ultra‑precise navigation, while a tight handshake with NATO ensures common standards and shared threat intelligence. Brussels should set a deadline — say 2030 — for every government agency, critical‑infrastructure operator, and defence contractor to migrate to post‑quantum cryptography, sweetening the mandate with technical templates and transition grants. Meanwhile, dedicated R&D streams for quantum wargaming, logistics optimisation, and strategic sensing will arm Europe’s militaries with simulation power their adversaries cannot match.

A single European market

Politically, quantum needs air cover. High‑profile “Quantum Summits” under each rotating Council presidency, supported by simple dashboards that track patents, startups, jobs, and flagship breakthroughs, keep ministers awake to progress and gaps alike. Framing quantum as an accelerant for the Green and Digital Agendas — think faster climate models or sovereign encryption — lets leaders justify budgets even when fiscal space is tight.

The policy spine needs teeth, and that means a harmonised legal regime that treats quantum like the strategic asset it is. A refresh of the dual‑use regulation has to pull qubits, quantum sensors, and next‑gen cryo‑electronics under one, uniformly enforced export‑control roof, so that black‑box loopholes in one member state don’t undercut the rest. In parallel, the Unitary Patent must become the default shield for quantum inventions, sparing companies the current maze of national filings. Standards bodies such as ETSI should be commissioned to draft European protocols for quantum‑safe cryptography, QKD networks, and hardware interoperability, with an EU‑wide certification mark — call it “QE” for Quantum Europe — guaranteeing trust and quality. GDPR, too, needs a quantum appendix to guide quantum‑resilient data storage and encryption, while ethical committees keep an eye on AI–quantum hybrids so that the bloc’s civil‑rights DNA survives the leap into post‑classical computing.

Make it a popular movement

Finally, the message must hit home at street level: quantum means safer banking apps, cleaner power grids, and highly paid jobs in your region. Cultivating champions — committee chairs in Parliament, tech‑savvy ministers in Berlin or Paris, defence hawks in NATO — ensures that commitment survives electoral cycles. And throughout, Europe must thread the needle between open scientific collaboration and hard‑nosed security, tightening IP protection and supply‑chain vetting even as it invites trusted partners to share the journey.

By embedding quantum technology into the larger European policy conversation, creating clear avenues for local engagement, and systematically educating policymakers, the EU and NATO can foster a robust ecosystem that advances Europe’s quantum leadership, economic growth, and strategic security.

Which one will it be?

Europe cannot afford another patchwork initiative; it needs a single, headline‑worthy Quantum Strategy that is driven from Brussels and co‑signed by every capital. That strategy should appear as a public, time‑stamped roadmap from the European Commission, complete with milestone targets — say, a fault‑tolerant prototype online before the decade closes — and a transparent budget ladder that scales with each milestone. A fully empowered “European Quantum Agency” would sit at the center, policing fragmentation, coordinating research calls, and steering a beefed‑up Flagship programme whose instruments range from non‑dilutive grants to equity stakes. Horizon Europe, the European Defence Fund, and the cohesion funds must all carry ring‑fenced quantum lines, while a pan‑continental training scheme — EU‑funded doctorates, shared curricula, and Erasmus‑style lab rotations — builds the workforce that can actually deliver on the roadmap.

Europe is more fragile than it appears. Especially after Brexit, the heavy load needs to, once again, be pulled by the Franco-German engine. And it is stalling. Not just because of disagreements over policy but for profound cultural reasons that after 31 years of the EU experiment have only become more pronounced.

Reality is that Germany, and the recent election reinforces that, continues to be governed by weak consensus close to the bare minimum with a backdrop of persistent historical guilt. And France continues to struggle with how to define its role on the global stage, as a junior partner to its Germanic neighbor, despite recent economic out-performance. All while the rest of Europe watches with a mix of bewilderment and jealousy, frozen in paralysis, but clearly recognizing that they are simply too weak to compete.

Without a new leader, able to unite Europe fiscally, politically and militarily, those cultural differences will prevent any large scale coordinate EU effort that can credibly compete with the US. None of the recent election cycles in France, Germany or Italy (with the exception of the Draghi report) have identified such a person. Spain and Poland remain too marginal to take on such a role and the Nordics are as united as the rest of Europe.

All of this matters because quantum is one of those once‑in‑a‑century inflection points that can redraw the map of economic power — and Europe has a short window to shape the rules rather than follow them. Brussels must sell the public on quantum the way it once did on the euro and Galileo: as critical infrastructure that anchors digital sovereignty and keeps Europe relevant in a multi-polar world. That requires budgets insulated from electoral mood swings — decade‑long envelopes, not annual scraps — and a high‑level review board reporting to Parliament to keep the mission honest, agile, and auditable. Get it right, and the quantum push becomes a unifying project on par with the Single Market; get it wrong, and Europe risks watching the next era of human and economic development unfold from the sidelines.

Who is that European leader? Because #QuantumIsComing

This is my personal newsletter, all opinions are mine and do not represent GQI, The Quantum Computing Report and other affiliated entities.

Subscribe now

Share

This newsletter has been written with the help of our GQI @ AI - a GQI proprietary RAG that exclusively looks at curated GQI expert content published since 2015. All ideas, thoughts, talking points, structure and storytelling are by me. All text has been edited by me. Many words haven been put on paper by a robot.

I was just re-watching the quantum panels at Nvidia’s GTC moderated by Jensen and was inspired by his vision when he asked “when will you all be a garden?”.

While it wasn’t the first time to have this many founders and CEOs of quantum vendors at a conference, it was a stunning reminder of how immature we are - each company pitching their modality as the best; and, just maybe, as the next Nvidia.

As Jensen suggested, we might want to stop planting seeds and finally build a garden. In this case, an American quantum garden to nourish and inspire a prosperous American future.

Quantum technologies — especially fault-tolerant quantum computing, quantum communications, and advanced sensing — carry the potential to rewrite the rules of economic competition and national security. In light of rising global investments (particularly from China), there’s an argument to be made that the U.S. needs a strategic, all-hands-on-deck effort reminiscent of the Manhattan Project or something in the spirit of “Stargate” — a bold, visionary initiative that marshals top talent and resources from across government, academia, and industry.

The Manhattan Project offers a compelling historical precedent for achieving rapid scientific advancement through concentrated effort, funding, and coordination. While the strategic stakes of quantum technology are similarly high, the field itself is broader and more complex. Quantum research spans computing, cryptography, materials science, and secure communications, with breakthroughs often emerging from global collaboration and academic openness. This contrasts with the secrecy and centralization that defined the atomic bomb effort. Therefore, while the ambition of the Manhattan Project is instructive, quantum’s nature demands a more flexible, open, and distributed approach. A revitalized “National Quantum Initiative 2.0” could serve as a blueprint — one that supports startups, fosters university-industry partnerships, and protects critical innovations without stifling the free flow of foundational knowledge.

The national security and economic stakes of quantum leadership are immense. A fault-tolerant quantum computer could break existing encryption standards, rendering current cybersecurity infrastructures vulnerable if developed first by an adversary. To counter this, the U.S. must lead in developing quantum-safe cryptographic protocols and secure communications networks. Economically, quantum computing is poised to enable entirely new industries and applications, driving innovation across sectors from pharmaceuticals to finance. Leading this transformation would reinforce U.S. technological dominance, create high-value domestic jobs, and set global standards. Just as DARPA helped launch the internet era, a well-funded, mission-driven quantum research agency could coordinate grand challenges, encourage competitive innovation, and catalyze game-changing discoveries.

Sustaining long-term leadership also requires deep investments in talent and infrastructure. The U.S. must scale up quantum education programs and STEM initiatives at all levels, while creating clear and attractive pathways for global scientific talent to contribute and stay. Establishing advanced quantum laboratories — akin to the National Labs system — would provide critical facilities for hardware prototyping, network testing, and researcher training. At the same time, the challenge of balancing openness with security looms large. While openness accelerates foundational science, the strategic implications of quantum breakthroughs necessitate protective mechanisms. Smart oversight and legislation can help define what remains open (e.g., error correction research) and what stays proprietary (e.g., cryptanalytic techniques). With a unifying vision — whether “Quantum Manhattan,” “Project StarQate,” or a reinvigorated national initiative — the U.S. can inspire public and private investment, galvanize the scientific community, and send a clear signal of its intent to shape the future of quantum technology.

A large-scale, government-coordinated — and well-funded — quantum initiative in the United States is needed to accelerate breakthroughs and help ensure that quantum’s most disruptive capabilities (breaking encryption, advanced military applications, and globally transformative commercial products) don’t land exclusively in an adversary’s hands. The model might not exactly replicate the wartime Manhattan Project’s secrecy, but a similarly decisive commitment — coupled with the best of public-private partnership — may be essential for the U.S. to lead the quantum era.

The economic opportunity

For quantum technology to deliver trillions of dollars in economic impact in the United States, it must move from its current research-oriented phase to breakthrough technology. That transition will demand comprehensive and coordinated efforts across multiple fronts that are out of reach of even the most self-confident vendor.

Scalable Hardware and Foundational R&D

• Accelerated Development of Fault-Tolerant Systems: Trillions in impact require stable, large-scale quantum computers that can tackle commercially valuable tasks. Without fault tolerance, the value remains speculative at best.

• Manufacturing and Supply Chains: Reliable supply of high-quality qubits, control electronics, cryogenic systems, and specialized materials is essential. Strengthening domestic manufacturing capabilities avoids bottlenecks and dependencies on foreign suppliers.

Broad and Deep Talent Pipeline

• Workforce Education: Developing and retaining quantum engineers, software developers, researchers, and technicians requires expanded STEM programs, specialized quantum degrees, and accessible retraining for skilled workers.

• Immigration and Research Collaboration: A welcoming environment for global talent — through targeted visas, fellowships, and partnerships — helps ensure the U.S. remains the premier destination for quantum scientists and innovators.

Robust Public-Private Collaboration

• Incentives for Commercialization: Government-backed grants, tax incentives, and innovation challenges can de-risk quantum R&D for private firms. DARPA- or NSF-style initiatives aimed at mission-driven quantum goals would accelerate the path to real-world applications.

• Industry Consortia: Public-private consortia help standardize software interfaces, hardware protocols, and best practices — lowering barriers for businesses to integrate quantum solutions.

Supportive Regulatory and Policy Environment

• Intellectual Property Protection: Clear IP frameworks — plus robust cybersecurity measures — encourage businesses to invest heavily in quantum.

• Export Controls and Cyber Guidelines: As quantum tech is inherently dual-use, careful regulation is necessary to protect national security without stifling commercial innovation.

• Federal Procurement: Government adoption of quantum-based solutions (for scientific simulation, logistics optimization, cryptographic security, etc.) can provide early market validation.

Quantum-Ready Industries

• Focused Sectoral Initiatives: Industries that stand to benefit most — healthcare, pharmaceuticals, energy, logistics, finance — need hands-on pilot programs to translate quantum breakthroughs into enterprise workflows.

• Enterprise Adoption and ROI: Clearly demonstrated business cases will drive further investment. Big wins in a few early verticals can set off a cascade of adoption elsewhere.

Global Leadership and Standard-Setting

• International Collaboration: Co-leading (with allies) on international standards ensures U.S.-centric protocols become global defaults, strengthening domestic companies’ positions in worldwide markets.

• Quantum Diplomacy: Diplomatic efforts that foster stable quantum “ecosystems” (e.g., shared R&D networks, talent exchanges, open publication of foundational research) can help the U.S. remain at the forefront.

Long-Term Vision and Funding

• Manhattan-Project-Level Commitment: Consistent, large-scale public funding (potentially tens of billions of dollars annually) can accelerate timelines. Grand challenges — like building an error-corrected quantum system by a specific date — galvanize both public enthusiasm and private investment.

• Sustainable Commercial Models: Government seed funding is crucial early on, but lasting impact requires profitable quantum solutions that attract private capital. Trillions in value ultimately hinge on a thriving commercial ecosystem, not just grants or pilot programs.

The national security imperative

Leveraging quantum technologies could profoundly shape the United States’ military and defense capabilities over the coming decades, enabling faster, more secure communications, advanced intelligence operations, and new forms of strategic planning. While quantum tech alone won’t guarantee global military dominance, its integration — alongside AI, space assets, and cyber capabilities — can give a decisive edge.

Breakthroughs in Intelligence and Cryptanalysis

• Decryption of Adversary Communications: A large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer could theoretically break many classical encryption methods (e.g., RSA, ECC). Early access to this capability would grant a massive advantage in signals intelligence (SIGINT), allowing the U.S. to intercept and read adversaries’ secure communications.

• Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) Integration: Just as important is securing one’s own channels. Rapid adoption of quantum-safe cryptographic standards would protect U.S. communications from adversaries who develop quantum decryption methods.

Advanced Battlefield Management and Simulations

• Real-Time Strategy Optimization: Quantum-accelerated algorithms can rapidly parse large datasets — satellite imagery, sensor input, troop movements — to propose optimal strategies. This agility could make U.S. forces more responsive and resilient in dynamic conflict environments.

• Logistics and Supply Chain Efficiency: Large-scale, complex logistics operations (e.g., moving fuel, equipment, and personnel globally) can be optimized via quantum tools for faster deployment and reduced downtime, enhancing both readiness and cost-effectiveness.

Ultra-Secure Quantum Communications

• Unbreakable Links: Quantum key distribution (QKD) provides theoretically unhackable encryption between parties. By integrating QKD into military communications (including satellite-based QKD), command-and-control networks can be made vastly more secure against adversarial interception.

• Multi-Node Quantum Networks: Long-term vision might include “quantum internet” nodes connecting bases, allies, and command centers. Such infrastructure could be a strategic game-changer if established at scale — well ahead of rival nations.

Quantum Sensing and Navigation

• High-Precision Sensors: Quantum-enhanced sensors can detect minute changes in gravity, magnetic fields, or electromagnetic signals — facilitating more accurate submarine tracking, stealth detection, or underground facility mapping.

• GPS-Independent Navigation: Quantum inertial sensors could allow aircraft, ships, and submarines to navigate precisely without relying on GPS, which is vulnerable to jamming or spoofing — improving operational security and reliability.

Rapid Materials Discovery and Weaponry Innovation

• New Alloys and Propulsion Systems: Quantum simulations can speed up the discovery of advanced materials for lighter, stronger armor, more efficient engines, or stealth coatings — shrinking R&D timelines from years to months.

• Energy Storage and Directed Energy: Research into quantum phenomena could yield breakthroughs in battery tech, enabling better energy storage for directed-energy weapons (lasers, railguns) or electrified platforms.

Force-Multiplying AI Integration

• Accelerated Training for AI Models: Quantum computing can potentially speed up AI training on large datasets, including surveillance or drone swarm coordination data. Faster AI iteration cycles can radically enhance automated decision-making.

• Synergy of AI and Quantum: AI can optimize or correct quantum computations in real time, while quantum hardware can boost certain AI tasks. This synergy might produce a self-reinforcing cycle of advanced decision support — vital in contested environments.

Strategic Deterrence and Defense Readiness

• Deterrence by Capability: Possession of quantum decryption powers and ultra-secure communications can deter adversaries by undermining their confidence in their own encryption and strategy.

• Preemptive Threat Detection: Quantum-enhanced analytics on global signals could identify emerging threats (e.g., ballistic launches, stealth assets) earlier than classical means, giving the U.S. a preemptive advantage.

Global Alliance Building and Influence

• Shared Quantum Networks with Allies: Extending quantum-secure communication infrastructures to NATO (starting with AUKUS) members and key partners can solidify alliances and coordinate collective defense — further amplifying U.S. leadership.

• Setting Standards and Protocols: Dominating quantum research and development allows the U.S. to define global best practices and technical standards, reinforcing a position of influence over international security and technology norms.

Quantum technology could underpin a next-generation U.S. military that is smarter, more resilient, and able to outmaneuver adversaries across conventional and cyber domains. The key lies in strategic, coordinated development — combining public investment, private innovation, and academic research — to push quantum from the lab bench into real-world defense systems. By proactively mastering fault-tolerant quantum computing, secure quantum communications, and cutting-edge sensors, the United States can build on its existing advantages and maintain a leading military posture in a rapidly changing global landscape.

The path to American quantum dominance

The United States must accelerate its leadership in quantum technology to dominate the global quantum value chain and future-proof national security. Core objectives include advancing domestic capabilities in quantum hardware manufacturing —such as cryogenic systems and quantum chips — and building advanced software stacks.

Federating US programs

This strategy must harness bipartisan support through an “America First” lens, positioning quantum investments as crucial for national competitiveness. Quantum-based technologies — communications, sensing, and computing — must be embedded within the Department of Defense (DoD), DARPA, and other federal roadmaps to safeguard strategic advantage. Additionally, securing supply chains and fostering domestic manufacturing will be vital to mitigate foreign dependency and shield critical national infrastructure.

Institutionally, the U.S. policy ecosystem already has significant assets in place. The National Quantum Coordination Office (NQCO), under the National Quantum Initiative Act (NQIA), leads federal efforts, working alongside the OSTP to guide interagency priorities and budgets. Key agencies like DoD, DOE, NSF, and intelligence entities (IARPA, NSA) are driving quantum R&D for defense, energy, and secure communications. Congress has laid legislative groundwork through the NQIA and CHIPS Act, and continued engagement with relevant committees is essential to expand funding and create new innovation vehicles. Private-sector actors — from Big Tech to defense contractors — are central to shaping standards and commercializing quantum tech, while think tanks and coalitions amplify policy influence.

To fully realize this agenda, the U.S. must launch a high-visibility “Quantum Moonshot” from the White House, backed by executive orders, milestone-driven investments, and a national communications strategy. This includes funding for manufacturing, national testbeds, and regional “Quantum Growth Zones” with tax incentives and regulatory support. Public-private partnerships (PPPs), demonstration projects, and talent initiatives will fuel innovation while building workforce capacity. The NQCO should be elevated to coordinate across sectors and borders, and a “Quantum Allies Pact” should unify R&D and supply chain efforts with partners like the UK, Canada, and Japan. Through bold, bipartisan action, the U.S. can secure long-term technological dominance and economic prosperity driven by quantum innovation.

Creating bipartisan awareness

To address the “awareness gap” on Capitol Hill and strengthen political momentum for quantum technology, a comprehensive education and engagement strategy must be prioritized. This includes forming a bipartisan Congressional Quantum Caucus modeled after successful technology-focused groups, and hosting regular briefings and “Quantum Boot Camps” for lawmakers and staffers. These sessions should deliver clear, visually engaging materials that tie quantum advancements to economic growth, national security, and localized benefits such as job creation. By contextualizing quantum policy within familiar narratives — like infrastructure protection, cybersecurity, and defense — stakeholders can demystify the technology and drive broader bipartisan buy-in.

Simultaneously, efforts must intensify at the regional level to ground federal quantum strategy in local success stories and workforce opportunities. Highlighting how quantum projects have already spurred jobs, partnerships, and innovation in specific districts or states will help build grassroots and constituent-driven political will. Strategies include leveraging regional labs and universities, aligning quantum with CHIPS Act–style initiatives, and supporting quantum-specific workforce development through apprenticeships, tax incentives, and curriculum updates. Long-term support for basic R&D is also essential — secured through multi-year authorizations, expanded quantum centers of excellence, and better funding bridges from lab research to commercial deployment.

Setting global standards

Finally, advancing innovation-friendly standards and international collaboration is vital. The U.S. should lead global coordination on quantum-safe encryption, promote regulatory sandboxes for federal pilots, and expand diplomatic and export-control frameworks with trusted allies. Quantum should be consistently framed as a unifying, forward-looking national priority, reinforced through regular congressional briefings, metrics dashboards, and bipartisan messaging. By cultivating champions across relevant committees, aligning quantum with national economic and security goals, and showcasing tangible progress through public-private partnerships, the U.S. can maintain momentum and steer quantum development toward strategic advantage in both global competitiveness and societal impact.

Quantum technology holds the promise of significantly enhancing U.S. prosperity and reinforcing global leadership, but it must be embedded within a broader innovation and policy framework.

However, quantum technology is not a standalone solution. Its success depends on complementary policies in trade, education, and infrastructure, as well as resilience against global competition and technological disruption. The U.S. must guard against complacency, particularly as other powers — like China and the EU — aggressively pursue quantum leadership. Additionally, the transformative nature of quantum could displace certain jobs and industries, making workforce retraining and economic adaptability crucial. Ultimately, quantum should be viewed as a strategic multiplier — not a magic bullet — whose full potential will only be realized through coordinated national efforts that align technology, policy, and inclusive economic development.

Happy World Quantum Day!
#QuantumIsComing

This is my personal newsletter, all opinions are mine and do not represent GQI, The Quantum Computing Report and other affiliated entities.

Subscribe now

Share

I recognize the aboriginal people of Australia, the oldest living culture in the world, as the original custodians of the land that I am currently writing this on. Stanford historian Mikael Wolfe argues that technology and nature are usually thought of as opposites, but he advocates for what is known as an envirotech approach to the historical relationship between the two – technology and the environment should be seen as interconnected. Australia’s national research institute, CSIRO, has a significant research effort around quantum biology, using our understanding of quantum mechanics to help explain some of the more complex and subtle biological processes that occur in nature, recognising that quantum does very much ‘play out’ in biological systems even if we don’t yet realise exactly how.

Hello friends,

I am just returning from a whirlwind journey that took a QED-C delegation across the sun-drenched coasts of Brisbane and Sydney, Canberra (sans coast but avec sun) and Melbourne, where kangaroos and koalas weren’t the only national treasures. Australia’s quantum ecosystem — nimble, ambitious, and globally-minded — is clearly punching above its weight (bingo!!!).

Led by the Quantum Economic Development Consortium (QED-C), a U.S.-based public-private partnership formed under the National Quantum Initiative Act. It unites industry, academia, and government agencies with around 250 active members, including many international ones. Its mission can be articulated around three main goals (1) be the trusted voice of the industry (2) engage and empower members and (3) inform and influence policy — laying the groundwork for a thriving global quantum economy.

This was diplomacy, innovation, and investment strategy wrapped into a fast-paced, multi-city 2 week sprint — a reconnaissance mission aimed at catalyzing the next wave of quantum partnerships between the US and Australia.

And a learning opportunity to realize that we at GQI know a lot about quantum tech and that our expertise is truly appreciated by the ecosystem. But, really, we actually know absolutely nothing about quantum tech and need to continue to work very hard to call ourselves experts. The leading vendors are extremely smart, collaborative and thoughtful in building - I am most appreciative of the many deep and confidential conversations that I had with my fellow delegates during bus transfers, airport rides, dinners and lunches, in between lab visits, roundtables and meetings. Quantum tech is in good hands!

🧭 The Mission

Led by the Quantum Economic Development Consortium (QED-C) and Austrade, our US delegation brought together quantum heavyweights like IBM, IonQ, Nvidia, PsiQuantum, Rigetti, IonQ, QuEra, Atom Computing, Quantum Opus, Keysight Technologies and more — flanked by policy minds from the US State Department and thinkers from CNAS and GQI.

Our objective was clear: map the contours of Australia’s rapidly evolving quantum landscape, deepen government-to-government dialogue, and explore commercial, academic, and geopolitical opportunities.

In a highly animated conversation with a senior executive at an Australian company, around quantum security, their CTO mentioned that “we have a bunch of classical threats that can hack us today. We need to fix those before we worry about PQC.” I didn’t know at that moment that this sentence would become emblematic of my experience during this trip - if you don't worry about PQC now then, in a few years, you'll have only one problem left, I responded. A very very big and definite one. The same is true for any quantum tech application. A stark reminder of how challenging it still is for an end-user to adopt quantum tech and a sentiment that was echoed in all conversations - not an issue confined to the island, though.

It was a privilege to have such high level, open and engaging conversations and I regard this as an opportunity. An opportunity for GQI to help educate users, investors and governments. And an opportunity for users to leapfrog years of innovation. Considering how immensely welcoming Australia has been, I am excited for us to play a small role down under going forward.

🌏 Queensland Rising

Brisbane wasn’t just our first stop — it was a revelation. The Queensland Government, in partnership with institutions like the University of Queensland (QUBIC and EQUS) and quantum-first players like PsiQuantum, is laying the groundwork for a quantum manufacturing hub that could rival anything we've seen globally. Whatever your take on them, I will say that PsiQuantum has vision and balls. And we need a lot more of that in quantum tech.

From government ministers to technical directors, it’s clear: Queensland is betting big on quantum, and they want international collaborators at the table.

Equally as exciting, especially since I was constantly reminded of it during sleepless nights in front of the Aussie news, the Olympic games are coming to Brisbane - and, with that, the Olympic quantum challenge. Anyone feeling like a gold medal winner?

🧠 Sydney: Capital Meets Capital

In Sydney, the pulse shifted to finance, venture, and scale. A high-powered roundtable with some of Australia’s leading financial services institutions revealed a sector keen on quantum’s risk modeling, encryption, and portfolio optimization potential. And a familiar end-user conversation.

We also connected with DeepTech innovators like Professor David Reilly, toured commercial quantum labs at Diraq and UNSW, and joined the Quantum Industry Day at NSW Parliament. The message? Sydney wants to be quantum’s commercialization capital.

🏛 Canberra: Quantum Meets National Security

Australia’s capital brought a different energy: geopolitical, strategic, and sovereign. In Canberra, we engaged directly with senior federal policymakers from various branches.

The discussions reflected how quantum is no longer just a scientific frontier — it’s a national security imperative. And at Australian National University, we witnessed how research is being translated into startups — like Quantum Brilliance, Nomad Atomics, Liquid Instruments, and QuintessenceLabs — with real-world, near-term use cases.

🎓 Melbourne: Deep Tech, Deep Talent

Our final stop was Melbourne, where the Victorian Government made a compelling case for its role as Australia’s quantum innovation engine. From policy visionaries at Invest Victoria and Breakthrough Victoria, to top research labs at CSIRO, ANFF, RMIT, and the University of Melbourne, we saw what happens when infrastructure, academia, and capital align.

Melbourne isn’t just researching quantum — it’s training the workforce that will build it. From the IBM Quantum Platform at Melbourne Connect to the cross-university talent roundtable, the city is investing in human capital at scale.

🔬 Australia’s Quantum Arsenal

Across Australia, our delegation immersed itself in the scientific depth and entrepreneurial energy that defines Australian quantum:

• Visits to research powerhouses like UQ, ANU, RMIT, and the University of Melbourne revealed globally competitive research in photonics, sensing, and quantum software.

• We saw a commercial layer taking shape: companies like Quantum Brilliance, Diraq, Liquid Instruments, QuintessenceLabs, and Nomad Atomics are scaling fast and thinking globally.

• Governmental engagement wasn’t superficial — it was strategic. Agencies, CSIRO and various departments are aligning quantum with national security, industrial resilience, and economic diversification.

🤝 Building the Quantum Bridge

Roundtables, investor sessions, and government briefings weren’t just about information — they were about action. Key themes emerged:

• Cross-sector quantum applications: From mining giants to financial behemoths, the appetite for quantum innovation is real.

• Bilateral strategic alignment: The US and Australia are not just allies — they’re becoming quantum collaborators, with the US State Department emphasizing the centrality of this partnership to international tech policy.

• Capital, talent, and IP flows: Innovators like Professor David Reilly and public entities like Breakthrough Victoria are opening doors for transpacific co-investment and co-development.

• And AUKUS might have been in the room, too.

🧠 People Power

What makes this all possible? The people. From Prof. Warwick Bowen and Prof. Andrew White in Queensland, to Tim Senden at ANU and Lloyd Hollenberg in Melbourne, this is an ecosystem led by visionaries with one eye on the lab and the other on the global stage.

The same holds true for the government. Whether it was Rachel Howard and Jessica Richman at Austrade, or Esha Mathew and Brad Blakestad from the US side, the commitment to building bridges — scientific, diplomatic, and commercial — was palpable.

🇦🇺 Australia’s Quantum Growing Pains: What’s Holding Back the Ascent

That’s a sharp and essential question — one that echoes the kind of constructive skepticism that real partnerships are built on. While the QED-C delegation was rightly impressed by the breadth and energy of Australia’s quantum ecosystem, a close look reveals a few systemic challenges and blind spots that, if unaddressed, could hold back the country's full potential. Here's a candid synthesis, drawing on the meetings, conversations, and cues from across Brisbane, Sydney, Canberra, and Melbourne - all in the spirit of constructive feedback.

Fragmentation vs. Federated Force

Australia’s quantum ecosystem is geographically and institutionally fragmented. While each city boasts strength — Brisbane in hardware, Sydney in finance and spin-outs, Canberra in policy, Melbourne in talent — the national coordination often feels loose and improvisational.

The absence of a cohesive, singular narrative means it’s harder for Australia to position itself globally. Talent and funding still get stuck in silos. National branding of quantum capability is still emerging, but not yet cohesive.

The National Quantum Strategy provides a blueprint, but implementation will need deeper inter-state synchronization and an empowered, possibly independent national coordinator.

Scale, Not Science, is the Missing Ingredient

Australia’s quantum research is world-class, but commercialization is inconsistent. Many companies are in prototype mode, and those seeking scale are often dependent on non-Australian capital or markets.

There's a bias toward deep science over product thinking. Lab-to-market pipelines are not yet mature. Critical enablers — supply chains, system integrators, customer validation pathways — are often underdeveloped or missing entirely.

Breakthrough Victoria, Main Sequence Ventures, and ANFF are trying to build bridges — but the private capital market for quantum in Australia remains thin and we encountered some narrow minded views on the prospects and value drivers of quantum tech.

A (very) senior government official told me in a one on one conversation that the first 6-9 months he is busy dealing with the policies of his predecessor (Australia is currently in an election cycle). The last 18 months of his term he’s focused on elections. “What do you want me to do about it (aka quantum tech)?”

This wasn’t an admission of failure. Rather, it was an encouragement to the private sector to take leadership - it was clear from his other comments that they are ready to follow and fund initiatives where possible.

Risk Aversion in Government Procurement

The Australian Government is deeply interested in quantum — but not yet behaving like an anchor customer. Risk-averse procurement policies make it hard for startups to get local traction.

Without procurement-backed validation, it's tough for companies to scale, retain talent, or attract foreign investment. This is where countries like the US (via DARPA/DOE), Germany, and even Israel shine. DUI, especially, came up as an often cited model to replicate.

DSTG and CSIRO are experimenting with co-development models, but they need to push faster, with bolder procurement and clearer innovation mandates. When I suggested that a venture studio might help, for example, I was met with a shoulder closer in temperature to Siberia than the Gold Coast.

I developed somewhat of a refrain during our trip: “Don't start with use cases.” - to the bemusement of my friends representing various vendors. Start with an understanding that quantum is a new capability. Build skills, teams and expertise. Understand quantum tech as a once in a lifetime, if not more, opportunity, to change the course of progress (and do use cases with the vendors to learn but not for the ROI). But other than PsiQuantum few have the you know what for that.

Talent is Growing, But Brain Drain Lingers

Australia has a highly educated quantum workforce, but retention remains an issue. Many of the brightest researchers — especially PhDs and postdocs — end up overseas due to limited industrial opportunities.

Startups are struggling to hire at scale; universities often absorb talent into grant-based research without commercialization pathways. Immigration and visa frictions compound the issue for foreign-born talent.

Programs like Melbourne Connect, and the University Talent Roundtable, show growing awareness — but workforce planning needs to move beyond degrees and into industry immersion.

Why do I love the US? Because we play to win! That mentality needs to be adopted by our partners as well.

Quantum is Still a Buzzword in Some Boardrooms

While some sectors are starting to get serious, many industries are still playing buzzword bingo — touting quantum interest without a clear roadmap or internal expertise. This, to be fair, is not an Australian but a global problem.

Without real quantum strategies, a lot of industry engagement is surface-level. There's a need for “quantum fluency” training at the executive level across key sectors.

Some of the companies we met showed curiosity but not conviction. This isn’t a knock — it’s a symptom of a gap between scientific potential and operational relevance.

GQI, QED-C, and Austrade are trying to translate between quantum experts and sector leaders — but more systematic effort is needed here, possibly with industry-specific quantum accelerators. Said more bluntly, it’s great to invite experts but you also have to trust and listen to them otherwise what is the point.

During one of our roundtables a senior executive opined that “if I come to my CEO with anything other than a use case he won't even listen to me.”. My response to him “Then get a new CEO.” - this is how potentially transformative quantum tech is; fast following is a fallacy. Most users will be unable to understand that - a century defining opportunity for those who do.

Another senior executive observed that “we don't do quantum as tech for the tech. We do quantum for the use cases. I don't want to be an expert or build internal expertise.”. Natural selection at play, live in front of our eyes

If Australia is able to develop an audacious, national quantum identity — something the world can recognize as distinctly Australian, yet globally interoperable — then they can claim to be in a global pole position.

🚀 Where Do We Go From Here?

This visit wasn’t a victory lap — it was a launchpad. Australia is not waiting for the world to notice; it is actively shaping the global quantum map. And the US, through QED-C and strategic engagement, is making sure it’s not just watching but participating. So, what’s next? Expect to see:

• More cross-border R&D partnerships

• Joint commercialization programs

• Increased VC activity on both sides of the Pacific

• And hopefully... more visits like this one.

Quantum is no longer a niche science. It's a strategic axis (according to one minister we met a top 3 priority along AI and biotech) — and this trip to Australia reminded us just how global, ambitious, and collaborative our future needs to be.

☀️ Bright like the Australian sun

On my way back home I was lucky to be able to make a pit stop at Q-CTRL’s new office, meet the team, see some sensors and not a lot of errors. The team around the CEO Michael built a world leading business that I would describe as AI for quantum to maximize value across computing, sensing and applications, incl, education.

Q-CTRL maintains a broad international footprint through offices in Sydney, Los Angeles, and Berlin, supported by partnerships that span industry, government, and academia. Notably, they collaborate with leading quantum hardware developers — including IBM, IonQ, and Rigetti — to integrate Q-CTRL’s error-reduction and performance-enhancing software into a variety of quantum computing platforms. In the defense and aerospace arena, Q-CTRL has worked with organizations such as NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory on advanced quantum sensing initiatives, while also engaging with U.S. defense agencies to explore secure and resilient quantum technologies. In Europe, their Berlin office facilitates alliances with research institutions and commercial partners to drive innovation in quantum control and sensing for next-generation applications.

These international projects reflect what’s possible coming from down under. Smartly using unique, local advantages as competitive differentiation, like the powerful R&D Tax Incentive Program (abused by others), which provids them with refundable and non-refundable tax offsets for qualifying research and development expenditures.

Investors like Main Sequence, a deep tech-focused venture capital firm born out of Australia's national science agency, the CSIRO, with a mandate to back science-led breakthroughs, provided early-stage funding and strategic support, helping to nurture and commercialize quantum innovations that originate in Australia’s research labs.

And a deep bench of world-class talent. All of which combined makes Q-CTRL a global leader in quantum tech.

On a personal note, this trip was super special - a genuinely kind, fun and uber smart group of people who invested a lot of time, hard work and knowledge into furthering quantum tech globally - and some good fun along the way.

The team from Austrade with Jessica, Rachel and Vish is awesome. Their kindness was only surpassed by the level of access they afforded us and the most professional logistics. If you are interested in Australia (and you should be!) hit them up.

And if you're not a member of the QED-C then you must join - it's open to organizations globally. Celia truly loves her job and has a bold vision; it was a privilege to be part of her first delegation and a joy to spend time with her. Very grateful to her and the team to make this possible.

As Josh Cassada said, when I asked him about his experience in space, “we all won the lottery of the universe living on this beautiful little blue planet and don’t even realize it.”

Until next time,
#QuantumIsComing

This is my personal newsletter, all opinions are mine and do not represent GQI, The Quantum Computing Report and other affiliated entities.

Subscribe now

Share

A lot of people look at reality but refuse to see it. Denial is a psychological defense mechanism that involves refusing to accept reality or facts, allowing individuals to avoid anxiety and maintain emotional stability. After all, it was all so nice and comfy before, wasn’t it.

Unfortunately, denial only delays the treatment and increases the emotional harm - it is equally harmful to a relationship than the trigger, which prompted it.

A tariff is a duty (tax) imposed by the government of a country or customs territory, or by a supranational union, on imports (or, exceptionally, exports) of goods. Besides being a source of revenue, import duties can also be a form of regulation of foreign trade and policy that burden foreign products to encourage or safeguard domestic industry.

Yes, making money is important to the US President. More important, though, is that he wants you to understand that a strong relationship needs to be rooted in two strong individuals - he wants you to be independent and strong and thinks you need a cold shower to finally wake up.

Don’t even try to argue with daddy. Shower time!

Daddy never loses

This is the very core tenant of his belief system and the super simple, highly effective blueprint of his entire career.

Attack, attack, attack. Deny, deny, deny. Never admit defeat.

He will not stop. He knows no boundaries. And if you think that he will all the sudden be “reasonable”, well then get ready for an ice bath next.

Daddy is disappointed in you

…and emotions like that are so hard to contain. It’s like Thanksgiving dinner, you have been dreaming about a juicy piece of Turkey all year, watching football, but instead your family served you tofu and Taylor Swift.

Will you let them take away that one pleasure you had?

And yes, it is that basic, as disappointed as you, dear intellectual, might be.

Who runs the show

The administration is entirely reshaping who will execute on its vision and the bench of disciples is deep. No other qualifications required.

Stop arguing over right or wrong. No need to get excited over checks and balances - only the result counts.

This, ladies and gentlemen, is the baseline of what we are experiencing.

Tariffs and quantum

And in the middle of that sits our little quantum, like a grain of sand floating in the universe.

Quantum tech supply chain

Dozens of critical components that go into quantum hardware are affected by it.

When we look at critical components, those scored as having no substitute or workaround, we notice a lot of potential failure points in the supply chain - and they are not in favor of the “rest of the world”.

While the ROW dominates certain supply chain segments for less critical components, the US has a near monopoly in some niches when it comes to the most critical ones such as ADCs, magnetometers, mu-metal shields, Paul traps, temperature control systems or vapor cells.

The ROW has a more dominant position in critical components such as dilution refrigerators (at milli-kelvin temperatures) and in several raw materials such as rare earths and others.

The US has the stronger hand, while the ROW - if united - might have a deeper reach. A standoff is a losing proposition for the ROW, especially with unity, at any level, being as fictional as a Marvel movie.

Impact of tariffs on quantum tech

Overall, the supply chain is largely diversified and while bottlenecks might occur, I do not see a critical impact, especially since price sensitivity should be relatively low for the leading quantum vendors and labs. The impacts of tariffs on quantum tech will be felt otherwise:

1. Tariffs Increase Costs and Heighten Uncertainty
   Across all advanced sectors — components, raw materials, and especially quantum technologies — tariffs add layers of complexity, cost, and risk. Firms are prone to delay investment, or pass cost increases on to end users.

2. Strategic and Security Considerations Loom Large
   Both national security agencies (like NATO) and private companies worry about the resilience of critical technology. Tariffs, when viewed as strategic tools, may encourage domestic production capacity but can also slow global cooperation on emerging technologies.

3. Risk of Technological Fragmentation
   In quantum technologies especially, collaborative progress thrives on open exchange of ideas and resources. Tariffs can accelerate a move toward “tech blocs,” creating multiple parallel technology ecosystems and limiting the talent and knowledge flow that underpins breakthroughs.

4. Long-Term Realignment
   Should these trade barriers persist, companies will adapt with new supply chains, governments may subsidize domestic sectors, and private capital will seek stable environments. Innovation will continue, but higher overall costs and slower timelines could change the competitive landscape — and, by extension, the global balance of technological leadership.

Fragmenting global supply chains, slowing innovation — particularly in sensitive fields like quantum technologies — and adding financial uncertainties that reverberate across defense, finance, and technology industries alike are the unintended consequences.

What it means for quantum tech

Streamlining vs. Fragmentation of Defense Supply Chains

• A primary goals is to strengthen collaborative development of advanced defense capabilities, for example via AUKUS — ranging from nuclear propulsion for submarines to emerging technologies like quantum computing.

• High tariffs on critical inputs (e.g., advanced alloys, rare earth elements, superconducting materials) can raise production costs and complicate the logistics of sharing or co-producing defense systems. Instead of a seamless flow of parts among countries, tariffs may encourage each to onshore or locally source components, leading to fragmented supply chains and higher costs.

Shared R&D in Quantum Technologies

• Closer collaboration on cutting-edge tech, including quantum computing and quantum cryptography, because of their strategic and security value.

• Tariffs on specialized hardware or software components used in quantum R&D (e.g., cryogenic equipment, qubit processors) could slow joint research efforts. If procurement becomes costlier or more cumbersome, multi-lateral pilot programs may see budget overruns or protracted timelines.

Balancing National Security with Economic Efficiency

• Each country faces domestic pressures to protect key industries or ensure national security supply lines. Tariffs are sometimes seen as a means of bolstering domestic capacity for critical components.

• Because collaboration is predicated on sharing high-end technology, imposing tariffs on each other’s exports could undermine the spirit of collaboration. In turn, that tension may force policy adjustments — either joint tariff exemptions or new trade coordination measures — to keep the alliance’s tech goals on track.

Potential for a ‘Mini Bloc’

• AUKUS as an Economic/Military ‘Bloc’: In an environment of generalized trade barriers, the AUKUS partners could deepen internal trade facilitation for defense and tech. That might mean:

  1. Reduced Tariffs Internally: A “free trade corridor” among Australia, the UK, and the US for essential materials and components, ensuring cost-competitive and secure supply.

  2. External Tariffs: Tighter controls or higher tariffs on imports from non-AUKUS suppliers — particularly if there are security concerns.

• Implication: While this could streamline trilateral collaboration, it risks isolating other allies or partners outside AUKUS, potentially setting off broader realignments in defense-tech supply chains.

A position of strength

The petrodollar agreement - the currency in which most oil trades are settled, including a recent long-term deal with Saudi Arabia - is celebrating its 50 year anniversary.

The USD remains the reserve currency of choice globally and that is unlikely to change.

Current market reactions are driven by behavioral dynamics and automated trading algorithms, unrelated to fundamentals and company earnings.

And the key indicators of the US economy remain exceptionally strong with one notable exception - investor and consumer confidence (aka uncertainty).

Unless you are prepared to completely turn around your own economic and political value systems, partner with Russia, China and India, then why would you pick a losing fight?

Instead, invest in (quantum tech) infrastructure and supply chains. Truly unite regional and global ecosystems. And, most importantly, be ambitious.

Stop doing small quantum. You will always chase ROI. you will always compromise on use cases and you will always be chased by classical. And, ultimately, run the risk to be unable to justify why we’re doing what we’re doing (quantum) in the first place.

The current tariff policies by the US government are a springboard for BIG quantum tech - the true, transformational, FTQC kind - both in the US, if it succeeds in generating new economic growth and invests it into a broad quantum vision. And for the ROW to invest, unite and be ambitious.

Nothing like a good purge to start anew!

A world of uncertainty

In the end, there is only one key takeaway - nothing is certain anymore. And there is only one choice to make - align & follow or lead & invest - to be spared from insignificance.

He will not stop.

#QuantumIsComing

This is my personal newsletter, all opinions are mine and do not represent GQI, The Quantum Computing Report and other affiliated entities.

Subscribe now

Share

To me it’s simple. The fire, the wheel, electricity, the internet - every now and then someone comes up with something super cool that completely changes our lives. Not something better, faster or cheaper that improves our lives (aka AI). But something entirely new that allows us to do stuff we previously thought impossible - or didn’t think about at all.

With that, very often, the course of history changes too. Ruling empires perish while others rise. New industries create unheard of wealth while others disappear in the abyss. The first billionaire, the first astronaut, the first superhuman.

Quantum Tech COULD be such an invention.

Should everyone do quantum? No! But if you care about national security, outsized ROI or leading your industry… well, then don’t miss the start because this is a game of no second chances.

Is quantum a game changer? A paradigm shift?

Let’s ignore the pesty question of when quantum technology will actually reach maturity. Only bean counters, Bitcoin bro’s and bored journalists care if it’s 3, 5 or 10 years.

I am talking about something much more fundamental.

A "paradigm shift" implies a fundamental transformation in how society operates or perceives the world, akin to the internet or electricity. Quantum technology’s potential for such a shift is significant.

• Revolutionizing Computation: Quantum computing could solve intractable problems, such as simulating quantum systems for new materials or optimizing smart grids, driving breakthroughs in energy, healthcare, and sustainability. The World Economic Forum’s 2024 Technology Report notes its potential to tackle "wicked problems" like climate change.

• Transforming Communication: A global quantum internet could redefine data security, reshaping industries like finance and governance. A "quantum-secured world" might establish new norms for privacy and trust.

• Advancing Scientific Discovery: Quantum sensors could unlock insights into quantum gravity or dark matter, potentially spawning unforeseen technologies. Real-time brain monitoring could revolutionize neuroscience and mental health.

• Complex Optimization: Financial markets involve computationally intense tasks (e.g., portfolio optimization, risk modeling). Quantum algorithms (like the quantum approximate optimization algorithm, QAOA) could yield better solutions more swiftly, especially as hardware matures.

• Governance and Global Impact: Enhanced modeling tools can help policymakers simulate and stress-test economic scenarios, offering more robust frameworks to tackle climate change, poverty reduction, and large-scale infrastructure projects.

• Critical Infrastructure: Quantum technology applied to secure communication lines (e.g., quantum satellites, fiber networks) is a matter of national strategic importance. Nations at the forefront of quantum communication could gain a significant security edge.

Quantum technology is a game changer in secure communication, precision sensing, and computing and material science. Its potential to be a paradigm shift for humanity is profound but depends on overcoming significant challenges. New industries and jobs could emerge, with quantum computing projected to generate $1.3 trillion in value by 2035 (McKinsey, 2024).

Add to that a profound change in our defense and attack posture when it comes to national security - and anyone who cares about it.

Yes, I am ignoring the risks and caveats, for now, and, yes, we haven’t even started to discuss time travel.

Start now or wait

Let’s explore various scenarios.

The quantum threat

This one is easy. No debate needed.

Given the long lead times for upgrading cryptographic systems and the rapid pace of quantum research, the right time to start preparing for the quantum threat is effectively now. This includes exploring and gradually implementing post-quantum cryptography (PQC), educating organizational leadership, and planning for eventual large-scale migration—even if large, fault-tolerant quantum computers capable of breaking today’s encryption may be a decade (or more) away.

We even have our own law for it - Mosca’s Theorem

I cannot think of any risk by starting now, no downside in being early and many obvious benefits.

Cost-Saving in the Long Run

• Proactive migration lowers the likelihood of emergency overhauls down the line, which tend to be more costly, disruptive, and prone to errors.

Risk Mitigation

• Strengthening cryptography can preemptively safeguard state secrets, intellectual property, and personal data. This underpins trust in financial systems and critical infrastructure.

Competitive Advantage

• Early adopters can position themselves as secure and forward-thinking—potentially attracting investors, clients, or citizens who prioritize data integrity and privacy.

Global Collaboration

• A coordinated effort to share best practices (e.g., through international forums, public–private partnerships) can minimize fragmentation in new security standards, fostering global interoperability and resilience.

It is impossible to say exactly when a quantum computer will be able to break encryption but, rather than going with a consensus estimate, I believe it is crucial to adopt a stance of “possible worst case” and start from there.

And that possible worst case is much closer than you think.

First mover advantage

The first-mover advantage in adopting quantum technology can be significant, offering organizations the chance to lead their industry, secure intellectual property, and gain a competitive edge. Being a first mover in quantum technology comes with notable benefits:

• Intellectual Property (IP) and Patents: Early adopters can secure patents on quantum innovations — such as algorithms, hardware, or applications — creating barriers for competitors and potential revenue streams through licensing.

• Industry Leadership: First movers can shape industry standards, influence regulations, and establish themselves as thought leaders, positioning them for long-term dominance.

• Market Capture: In industries where quantum tech offers a transformative edge — like pharmaceuticals (e.g., drug discovery) or finance (e.g., optimization) — early adopters can capture market share and build customer loyalty before others enter.

• Talent Attraction: Leading the quantum race can draw top talent, a scarce resource in this field, fueling further innovation.

In highly competitive fields, waiting too long could let first movers establish dominant positions, especially if quantum tech becomes a core differentiator.

A steep learning curve

You can’t easily buy your way into quantum tech.

Talent Shortage and Long Lead Times

• Scarce Expertise: Quantum computing merges advanced physics, computer science, and engineering. This interdisciplinary skill set is in short supply globally. Recruiting, training, and retaining specialists takes significant time.

• Knowledge Onboarding: Even if you begin with a small team or designated “quantum champions,” getting them up to speed on quantum algorithms, hardware architecture, and software ecosystems is a months-to-years process.

Strategic Positioning and Competitive Advantage

• First-Mover Benefits: Early adopters develop internal experience and tools (e.g., coding frameworks, cryptography protocols), potentially securing a competitive edge in high-value use cases such as complex optimization or secure communications.

• External Partnerships: Collaborating with universities, quantum start-ups, or consortia can give you early exposure to cutting-edge research. Building these relationships also helps you share both the cost and the risk of exploratory quantum projects.

Gradual Learning Curve and Flexible Timelines

• Iterative Approach: Meaningful quantum use cases will evolve over time. Tackling them requires iterative experimentation, workforce capacity-building, and technology roadmapping.

• Opportunity to Pilot: “Starting early” often means running small pilot programs or proofs of concept (PoCs). This approach refines internal understanding of quantum technology without demanding a fully dedicated quantum R&D division on day one.

Ultimately, the earlier you incorporate quantum readiness into your strategy, the smoother (and potentially more cost-effective) your transition will be once scalable quantum technology matures. By starting now with limited yet focused initiatives, your organization can cultivate in-house expertise, form strategic alliances, and position itself to capitalize on quantum’s transformative potential — rather than scrambling to catch up later.

Commercial use cases or bust

Discrete “use cases” for quantum are only one aspect of the quantum adoption story. While showcasing realistic applications is crucial for proving value to decision-makers, these use cases alone do not solve the larger challenges (aka opportunity) of:

Building a Quantum-Capable Workforce

• Without properly trained quantum experts, data scientists, and software developers, even the most promising use case can stagnate.

• The talent shortage and steep learning curve mean it’s not just about identifying what to do with quantum, but also ensuring the right people and processes are in place.

Overcoming Technological Hurdles

• Quantum hardware is still maturing; near-term quantum devices (often labeled NISQ—Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum) have significant limitations in terms of coherence times, error rates, and scalability.

• This reality tempers the excitement surrounding any specific quantum application, reminding us that robust, fault-tolerant devices remain a multi-year journey.

Aligning with Organizational Strategy

• For quantum tech to move beyond pilots or proofs of concept, it must slot into an organization’s broader strategic priorities—whether that be accelerating R&D, increasing cybersecurity, or improving efficiency.

• Simply announcing a “quantum use case” without ensuring it aligns with the company’s resources, risk tolerance, and timeline often leads to stalled initiatives.

You can read more about my thoughts on use cases in last week’s article.

Emphasis on “use cases as just one part of the equation” aligns closely with our broader discussions on quantum readiness. Identifying compelling quantum applications is essential for guiding R&D, securing executive support, and achieving early milestones. However, success depends equally on fostering the right talent, managing technology uncertainty, and embedding quantum into a well-planned organizational and economic strategy.

While showcasing quantum’s utility via real use cases is a powerful motivator, the journey to full-scale adoption relies on ecosystem-level maturity, thoughtful partnerships, and ongoing investment in people and processes—a message that is consistent with the modern consensus among quantum experts and strategic analysts alike.

Emergence of new competition

We’ve seen it in digital, in AI and in Blockchain - new technologies foster new, credible competitors. Quantum tech will be no exception.

Enhanced Computational Power

• Certain problems could see exponential or high-order speedups from quantum algorithms once fault-tolerant quantum computers are available.

• A new entrant with domain expertise and quantum know-how might leapfrog incumbents that rely on purely classical methods for R&D, trading strategies, or complex logistics solutions.

Specialized Solutions and Niches

• Quantum-inspired algorithms (running on classical hardware) and early-stage quantum cloud services allow smaller players to experiment without enormous capital investment.

• Industries with high-value use cases could see agile start-ups finding breakthroughs faster if incumbents fail to keep pace.

Quantum Security and Cryptography

• Widespread concerns over the “quantum threat” to current encryption might push certain industries to adopt post-quantum cryptography (PQC) and quantum-secure solutions more aggressively.

• New cybersecurity or secure-communications firms with robust quantum-safe offerings could compete with or eclipse older vendors that move slowly to update their cryptographic stacks.

Discount these possibilities and watch yourself getting disrupted.

Potential for Disruption Across Key Sectors

The naysayers are shouting “but we don’t have use cases/algorithms for that” or “classical can do this well enough”. I am shouting “stop turning quantum into a hybrid tool for heuristic advantage”:

Finance and Banking

• Quantum-Enhanced Risk Modeling: Firms with quantum-optimized models for portfolio management, risk assessment, or derivative pricing could gain a significant edge in trading or risk mitigation.

Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare

• Accelerated Drug Discovery: Quantum simulations of complex molecules promise breakthroughs in drug design and targeted therapies.

Materials and Chemicals

• Novel Materials & Catalysts: Quantum computers can simulate atomic interactions with higher fidelity than classical methods.

Cybersecurity

• Quantum-Safe Solutions: Companies offering post-quantum cryptography, quantum key distribution (QKD), or next-gen cyber solutions could capture markets quickly if major data breaches occur.

While quantum technology indeed could enable disruptive new competitors, a full “overnight leapfrogging” is unlikely. Instead, expect a gradual escalation of quantum’s influence, with early movers (incumbents and start-ups alike) forming partnerships and jockeying for leadership positions. If established businesses are complacent or slow to adapt, they do risk losing ground to more agile newcomers or even established rivals that develop quantum capabilities faster. The biggest factor isn’t merely being a new market entrant, but rather:

1. Having the right domain-specific quantum use case,

2. Possessing or cultivating top-tier quantum talent, and

3. Being prepared to invest steadily over a multi-year horizon.

In that sense, established businesses can preempt disruption by proactively investing in quantum readiness. Conversely, resourceful and specialized new entrants may find precisely those niches where quantum technology can deliver quantifiable advantage — paving the way for genuine market shake-ups.

Again, I am ignoring all the well known risks and challenges here. I am taking a “hype” position on purpose.

What does this mean for you, the quantum curious?

The Quantum Ecosystem.

For an ecosystem such as a region, emerging country, or similar entity, the decision to engage with quantum technology now or later requires a strategic, forward-looking approach that balances immediate constraints with long-term opportunities. Given the transformative potential of quantum technology and the global race to harness its power, starting now is advisable — but with a focus on building foundational capabilities, fostering collaboration, and prioritizing areas of maximum impact.

Why Start Now?

1. Leapfrogging Traditional Development Stages
   Emerging regions have a unique opportunity to bypass legacy systems and adopt advanced technologies like quantum computing early. This "leapfrogging" can accelerate development in critical areas such as healthcare, agriculture, or energy, where quantum solutions could address pressing local challenges more effectively than traditional methods.

2. Global Competitiveness
   Quantum technology is becoming a key driver of innovation worldwide, with countries like the U.S., China, and the EU investing heavily. Engaging now ensures that emerging regions remain competitive, avoiding a future where they are left behind or dependent on foreign technologies. Early action also positions regions as attractive partners for collaboration and investment.

3. Time to Build Capacity
   Quantum technology requires a skilled workforce, robust research infrastructure, and institutional knowledge — none of which can be developed overnight. Starting early allows regions to gradually build these capabilities, preparing them to capitalize on quantum advancements as they mature.

Delaying engagement with quantum technology carries significant risks:

• Missed Opportunities: Waiting could lock regions into outdated systems, making it harder to adopt quantum solutions later.

• Brain Drain: Without local opportunities in advanced fields, talented individuals may migrate to regions already investing in quantum tech.

• Economic Dependence: Late adopters risk becoming reliant on foreign quantum technologies, missing out on economic growth and innovation.

For an emerging region or country, the time to engage with quantum technology is now but with a focus on building foundations, fostering collaboration, and targeting high-impact areas. By investing in education, identifying key use cases, and creating a supportive ecosystem, these regions can position themselves to harness quantum technology’s potential for economic growth, societal benefits, and global competitiveness. The challenges are real, but the rewards of early, strategic action outweigh the risks of inaction.

The Quantum Investor.

It’s nice to have a ton of money. But where to find returns?

Quantum Tech is Early but Promising

• Quantum technology is still in its infancy, with challenges like qubit stability and scalability yet to be fully resolved. However, its potential to revolutionize industries is enormous.

• As a large investor, you have the capital and patience to weather this uncertainty and position yourself for significant long-term gains while valuations remain relatively low. If you don’t, then quantum ain’t for you.

First-Mover Advantage

• Secure intellectual property (IP): Patents in quantum hardware, software, or applications can provide a competitive edge and future revenue streams.

• Shape industry standards: Early involvement lets you influence how the technology evolves.

• Attract talent: With quantum experts in short supply, early movers can build relationships with top minds.

Timing is Critical

• Quantum tech is entering a growth phase, fueled by increasing investment from governments (e.g., U.S., China, EU quantum initiatives) and private sectors. Starting now lets you enter at lower valuations with higher upside potential.

• Delaying could mean higher entry costs and lost ground to competitors as the field matures over the next 10-20 years — a timeline well-suited to large investors with a long-term horizon.

Waiting might seem safer, but it carries hidden costs:

• Higher Entry Prices: As quantum tech progresses, valuations will rise, reducing your return potential.

• Missed Opportunities: Competitors who act now could lock up IP, talent, and partnerships, leaving you at a disadvantage.

• Learning Curve: Starting later means playing catch-up in a field with a steep knowledge barrier.

For a large investor, the time to enter quantum tech is now. By starting with a diversified portfolio (hardware, software, communication, cryptography), strategic partnerships (academia, startups, industry), and a long-term mindset, you can mitigate risks while positioning yourself at the forefront of this transformative field. Begin today to secure your stake in the quantum future — waiting only increases the cost and reduces the reward.

The Quantum User.

If you’re a large corporate user, such as a multinational company or a major enterprise, deciding how to approach quantum technology requires a strategic, forward-looking perspective. Quantum technology is still emerging, but its potential to transform industries like finance, pharmaceuticals, logistics, and cybersecurity is immense. The key is to balance the risks of early adoption — such as high costs and technical uncertainty — with the opportunities to gain a competitive edge and drive innovation.

You should begin engaging with quantum technology now, but with an emphasis on exploration, partnerships, and building internal capabilities rather than full-scale implementation:

• Quantum Technology is Maturing, But Not Fully Ready:
  Quantum computing, communication, and sensing are still in their early stages, with scalable, practical applications likely 5-10 years away for most industries. However, starting now allows you to explore its potential and prepare for future adoption.

• First-Mover Advantage vs. Fast Follower:
  Being a first mover could offer intellectual property (IP) and market leadership. As well as preferred access and partnerships. It also hedges you against unforeseen progress in quantum tech, which is a possible scenario.

• Competitive Landscape:
  Major players like Johnson & Johnson, Boeing, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase are already investing in quantum research and pilot projects. Waiting too long could leave you behind competitors who are building expertise and securing early advantages.

Why Start Now?

• Avoid Falling Behind: Competitors are already exploring quantum tech. Delaying could mean missing out on key partnerships, talent, or IP.

• Prepare for Disruption: Quantum will disrupt industries unevenly. Early engagement ensures you’re ready when it transforms your sector.

• Leverage Momentum: Global quantum initiatives and corporate investments are accelerating progress. Starting now lets you tap into this growing ecosystem.

Why Not Wait?

• Missed Learning Opportunities: Quantum tech has a steep learning curve. Waiting delays your ability to build expertise and identify high-impact use cases.

• Higher Costs Later: As the field matures, the cost of entry (e.g., talent, partnerships) will rise, and early adopters may lock in key advantages.

• Risk of Disruption: If a competitor implements quantum solutions successfully, they could gain a significant edge, especially in data-intensive or optimization-heavy fields.

For a large corporate user, the time to engage with quantum technology is now—but with a focus on exploration, pilot projects, and partnerships. By starting small, you can build knowledge, identify high-value applications, and position your organization to scale quickly when the technology matures. This approach minimizes risk while ensuring you’re prepared to leverage quantum’s transformative potential. Don’t wait for the quantum revolution — begin shaping it today.

Oh and btw, my company, GQI, would love to help you with it - no matter if you are an ecosystem, an investor or a user. We have a stellar team of experts ready to guide you.

Winner take all

Let’s address the question of whether quantum technology adoption by demographics such as ecosystems, investors, or end-users will result in a "winner take all" scenario. In this context, "winner take all" suggests that early adopters could gain such a significant advantage that latecomers are effectively shut out of the market or left at a severe disadvantage.

In the near-to-mid term, early adopters (whether nations, investors, or enterprises) can gain a head start, secure specialized talent, shape standards, and capture pockets of value.

In the long-term, this is more uncertain. While we are likely, just as in other technologies, to see a couple of regional quantum “superpowers” emerge, they will not, in consequence, dominate all of quantum tech.

However, context is important.

On the ecosystem side, if a region or country is able to build aggressive or defensive quantum computing capabilities before a perceived potential enemy it might lead to a lock out when it comes to data sovereignty, critical infrastructure and personal privacy.

On the investor side, luck aside, risk will deliver returns, especially within a portfolio. It is unlikely that significant “late bloomers” will emerge among the quantum vendors. And if they do, established quantum investors are likely to get first look. Also, the landscape of investable startups will remain rather limited. Hence, early, calculated risk capital and a portfolio approach is likely to dominate the venture space.

On the end-user side, it all depends. Winner take all markets will only occur within well defined niches and industries. If Fedex optimizes their routing system, dramatically reducing costs while increasing accuracy, then UPS will struggle. Will they be put out of business? That depends on more than just quantum but, yes, it’s possible and we’ve seen this scenario before (remember Blockbuster, Sears or Lehman Brothers?).

The gist

As I pointed out above, I am ignoring a whole lot of risks and challenges in my analysis - I am well aware of this. Here is my argument:

If you think there is a 10% risk of the above being true, then you cannot afford to ignore quantum tech.

If you are an ecosystem this is not just a massive opportunity to leapfrog development and secure future economic impact. It is a risk of being rendered insignificant in an increasingly technology driven world, if you miss out on it.

If you are an investor you will be missing out on a trillion dollar opportunity once real applications hit. The cards of that game are being dealt right now.

If you are a corporate user ask yourself - is one of your competitors doing it?

And we haven't even yet discussed the risks of geopolitical constraints (import/export controls, tariffs, etc), vendor bottlenecks in their quantum computational output rendering buy/partner/build decisions mute and the fact that you can hardly “buy” any quantum talent.

Your competition, your enemy, your disruptor is out-lapping you and you haven’t even noticed it. Just ask Jamie Dimon, he’s been at it since at least 2017 with dozens of internal quantum experts. Good luck catching up!

The answer to the question - start now or wait - is super simple.

#QuantumIsComing

Subscribe now

This is my personal newsletter, all opinions are mine and do not represent GQI, The Quantum Computing Report and other affiliated entities.

The big vendors are clearly thinking about a bright future.

But the quantum computing puzzle is far from solved. In particular, as the skeptics point out, some serious concerns remain:

Overestimation of Near-Term Quantum Capabilities

• Limited hardware maturity: Current (NISQ-era) devices remain too noisy and small in qubit count to solve practically relevant, large-scale business problems. This contrasts with the notion of “explore early,” suggesting that near-term returns on investment may be far less than marketing would imply.

• Algorithmic under-performance: Even the best near-term quantum algorithms are often overshadowed by classical counterparts — particularly when factoring in overheads like error mitigation. This implies that implementing proof-of-concept pilots might be more about hype than deriving genuine insight or advantage.

Misconceptions About Speed-to-Value

• The “Quantum Advantage” threshold is not close: Quantum advantage for real-world problems could still be years) away. Starting pilot projects today may yield negligible or inconclusive results if the hardware and algorithms simply aren’t ready.

• Classical alternatives keep improving: Classical high-performance computing (HPC), specialized GPUs, and classical algorithms (including AI-driven methods) continue to advance rapidly. Ignoring ongoing classical innovation can lead to underestimating the competitive performance of non-quantum solutions.

Talent & Resource Allocation Concerns

• Opportunity costs: Building a quantum team or pouring resources into quantum exploration too early might divert talent and budgets away from more immediately impactful R&D. This can be detrimental if quantum returns do not materialize on the timelines often promised by vendor roadmaps.

• Specialized skill sets are premature: If near-term devices cannot demonstrate meaningful value, training or hiring quantum specialists now could represent an inefficient use of resources—particularly for companies that have not yet maximized existing AI/ML or HPC capabilities.

Hype vs. Realistic Timelines

• Risk of “pilot purgatory”: Often, organizations run quantum pilots with no clear endgame, effectively stuck in an R&D loop without tangible ROI. Over time, this can erode stakeholder confidence and create skepticism about the technology’s future.

• Inflated expectations damage credibility: By jumping in aggressively and touting quantum solutions prematurely, some companies may over-promise results. When performance falls short of the hype, it may undermine both the technology’s reputation and the organization’s overall innovation credibility.

In consequence, it might be smart to “Wait-and-See” as for most industries, immediate quantum benefits are still too speculative to justify major investments, suggesting a more watchful strategy until hardware and algorithms cross key performance thresholds. Near-term quantum proofs of concept could be a resource sink and genuine commercial benefit is likely distant and being an early mover can backfire if expectations aren’t managed carefully.

Personally, I have never come across a game changing human development that doesn’t entail risk, so these arguments don’t resonate much with me. But, let’s take a more balanced look at them since the stakes at play are massive.

Don’t focus on use cases. Yet.

My view is simple; don’t put the carriage in front of the horse. Every puzzle is best solved by first setting the four corners of it and filling out the core once that is accomplished - the full picture only emerges when you approach it from the edges.

What are the 4 corners of the quantum computing use case puzzle I hear you asking?

1. Talent & Capability Development

• Upskilling internal teams: Quantum computing introduces novel concepts that often require specialized skills (e.g., quantum algorithms, quantum error correction, circuit design). Invest early in both recruiting domain experts and reskilling existing employees to bridge the knowledge gap.

• Cross-functional literacy: Ensure business leaders, technical teams, and operational stakeholders share baseline knowledge of quantum computing to align on strategy and feasibility. This helps avoid unrealistic timelines and supports stronger internal dialogue about when (and why) to use quantum solutions.

2. Technology Access & Infrastructure

• Hardware choices: Current quantum hardware comes in different flavors (superconducting, trapped ions, photonics, etc.) — each with unique trade-offs in terms of qubit stability, gate fidelity, and scalability. Explore cloud-based quantum services to mitigate high upfront costs and gain access to diverse hardware platforms.

• Software stack & tooling: Establish robust development environments and frameworks that abstract away hardware complexities where possible. Leverage open-source toolkits (e.g., Qiskit, Cirq) and commercial platforms that offer integrated workflows for algorithm design, testing, and simulation.

• Proof-of-concept sandbox: Create an internal “quantum sandbox” environment where teams can safely prototype, run small pilots, and benchmark performance without disrupting core business systems.

3. Ecosystem & Partnerships

• Academia & startups: Collaborate with universities and emerging ventures at the forefront of quantum research. Such partnerships accelerate your access to advanced IP and skilled talent.

• Industry consortia: Engage in consortiums or industry initiatives where best practices, standards, and quantum roadmaps are discussed (e.g., joint R&D on error correction or post-quantum encryption methods).

• Strategic vendor alliances: Form alliances with leading quantum hardware and software providers. Early, co-innovative relationships can translate into preferential access to cutting-edge developments, future-proofing your quantum journey.

4. Governance & Strategic Roadmap

• Enterprise-wide sponsorship: Secure executive and board-level commitment so quantum remains a strategic priority with proper funding and resourcing. A senior champion ensures alignment across the organization.

• Incremental milestones & ROI mindset: Establish a phased roadmap, starting with small research pilots to demonstrate feasibility and expand gradually as hardware matures. Track clear KPIs (e.g., proof-of-concept performance gains) to measure progress and sustain momentum.

• Risk management & security: Anticipate and plan for data security considerations (including post-quantum cryptography) and carefully evaluate intellectual property implications when collaborating externally.

In sum, before zeroing in on specific commercial use cases, an organization should prioritize building a knowledgeable workforce, forging the right technological and academic connections, and implementing a strategic quantum roadmap with strong executive sponsorship and governance. By getting these aspects right, you ensure that when the hardware matures — and the quantum algorithms become truly advantageous — you have the infrastructure and expertise in place to capture value quickly and responsibly.

The heart of the quantum puzzle

And it is then that you can, confidently, approach the heart of the quantum puzzle - use cases.

Important note: this is not a chronological logic but a logical argument. All tasks should happen concurrently, just as your eyes will scan all pieces of the puzzle on your table at once.

Applications is what will ensure the success, justify the investment and deliver the return on your quantum computing project. And, in the context of a deep tech, transformative technology, it is something that takes careful preparation.

This is not about “guessing” use cases and ticking project management boxes. It is about developing a strategy, implementing a methodology and making it your own as you learn.

At GQI we have a powerful framework for that, which combines use case discovery, Quantum Resource Estimation and Quantum Computing hardware roadmaps into one powerful assessment model.

Remember, the goal here is not to “guess” THE use case that will deliver you the big bucks in 5 years. But, to systematically identify what is possible and what makes sense for you - and leverage it as you set the 4 corners of your puzzle.

It is also the perfect way to engage end-users in a workshop format for joint discovery. And, ideally, the output of it is not just a pipeline of (possible but not definite) use cases but a methodology for collaboration, a strategy for quantum adoption and a framework to continue to learn and iterate in the most efficient way possible.

Start small, with one problem domain or industry, and grow from there and DO NOT focus on the ROI of the use case. Use it as a ‘raison d'être’ for your quantum program. It will pay off many times over in the long-term:

Future-Proofing & Early-Mover Advantage

• Avoid playing catch-up: Quantum hardware and algorithms will continue to advance in leaps, potentially catching slow adopters off guard. By experimenting now, you’re ready to exploit advantages the moment quantum delivers a genuine performance edge.

• Reap first-mover benefits: Organizations that establish quantum talent, infrastructure, and ecosystem relationships early on will be best positioned to translate new breakthroughs into competitive differentiation.

Accelerated Learning & Capability Building

• Develop internal expertise: Quantum computing requires specialized knowledge that can’t be built overnight. Starting small experiments allows employees — and leadership — to develop fluency and confidence as the field rapidly evolves.

• Refine organizational mindset: Exploring quantum now cultivates a culture attuned to cutting-edge technologies and fosters innovation across other areas of R&D.

Partnership & Ecosystem Positioning

• Strong relationships with key players: Getting involved in quantum-specific consortia, research groups, or pilot programs with vendors can open doors to advanced IP, co-innovation opportunities, and funding for joint initiatives.

• Visibility in the ecosystem: By showcasing early work, you’re more likely to be considered a partner of choice for hardware providers, software developers, or academic institutions when major breakthroughs or pilot programs occur.

Risk Management & Strategic Roadmap

• Plan for potential disruptions: Even if the business case isn’t obvious today, quantum encryption and post-quantum cryptography will affect industries handling sensitive data. Early exploration helps organizations plan for and mitigate such risks.

• Set a realistic quantum roadmap: Ramping up now means building a measured, flexible strategy with incremental milestones. That ensures you can scale up quickly once meaningful quantum advantage becomes available.

Even without immediate commercial use cases, early engagement with quantum computing is a strategic investment in future capabilities, talent, and partnerships — and a way to proactively address potential risks and disruptions. The learning curve is steep, qualified resources rare, good partners scarce and there is a chance of fast followers getting locked out.

And if you don’t believe in that, well, the Bitcoin folks are hiring. Godspeed!

Blaming it on the hype is an easy excuse

Allow me to be extra clear just in case you, the LinkedIn warrior, want to come after me. This is a strategy and methodology to deliver value. This is not about…

Overpromising Near-Term Gains

• Most experts agree that current NISQ (Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum) hardware has limited qubit counts, high error rates, and short coherence times. Achieving a clear quantum advantage on practically relevant problems is far from guaranteed in the immediate term.

• Near-term attempts at quantum solutions often fail to outperform well-tuned classical methods, especially given ongoing advancements in GPUs, tensor processing units (TPUs), and classical algorithms.

Denying the Risk of “Pilot Purgatory”

• If an organization runs repeated proof-of-concept quantum pilots without showing tangible progress, it can wear thin on executive enthusiasm.

• This can lead to a misallocation of resources, lost credibility, and disillusionment with quantum overall — both internally and externally.

Ignoring Opportunity Costs

• There is a valid concern that quantum hype may siphon resources away from more immediately impactful R&D (e.g., classical AI/ML, optimization, HPC).

• Quantum computing is a specialty field, and building a deep bench of quantum talent is non-trivial—so if the returns are truly distant, you risk diverting talent and budgets prematurely.

It is about…

Strategic Positioning Is Super Valuable

• Even if practical quantum advantage is several years away, there is merit in investments to cultivate internal literacy, form selective partnerships, and track the technology’s maturation — particularly for large enterprises with a strong R&D footprint.

• Having some in-house quantum know-how allows companies to pivot swiftly once hardware and error-correcting techniques advance.

Ecosystem Development Is Happening

• Venture investment, academic research, and startup innovation in quantum are accelerating — potentially leading to “nonlinear” progress. Organizations often want a foot in the door if breakthroughs do come sooner than expected.

• While many of these efforts won’t yield immediate ROI, the relationships and early exploration could create intangible benefits (e.g., brand as an innovator, a culture that encourages frontier research).

Use Cases for Learning vs. Production

• A key misunderstanding is to conflate “immediate commercial ROI” with “no reason to invest.” Small proof-of-concept projects can still serve as training grounds for internal teams, building a repository of quantum knowledge and readiness without expecting near-term breakthroughs.

Post-Quantum Security Considerations

• Quantum computing raises data security implications. Many sectors (banking, defense, healthcare) anticipate needing post-quantum cryptographic methods. Getting started on the cryptography side — rather than purely on quantum computing — can be an important risk-management strategy.

The question isn’t when; but how

The question isn’t strictly “jump in now” vs. “do nothing.” The most scientifically and commercially grounded approach is to balance pragmatic caution with a low-regret or incremental investment strategy:

Targeted R&D vs. Massive Rollouts:

• A moderate path could be funding a quantum research team and forging partnerships for advanced algorithm research, but not spinning up entire departments or shifting large budgets away from proven technologies.

Realistic Timelines & Leadership Education:

• Avoid overpromising or fueling internal hype. Leadership should know that quantum maturity is measured in years (or even decades), not quarters. Pilots should be labeled as exploratory, with well-defined learning goals.

Watchful Waiting with Active Monitoring:

• Keep tabs on hardware milestones (e.g., fault-tolerant qubit counts, breakthroughs in error-correction codes). Engage with specialized conferences or consortia, so you can scale your involvement if key technological inflection points arrive.

Focus on Unique Industry Requirements:

• For industries like pharmaceuticals, finance, or advanced materials, even partial improvements in quantum optimization or simulation could be transformative eventually. An early—and measured—start in these domains may pay off more clearly.

Don’t shy away from some short term compromises that, in the long-term, will help you elevate YOUR use cases strategy.

• Emphasize algorithmic design: When training or hiring quantum specialists, look for those experienced in advanced techniques like variational circuits, hybrid quantum-classical approaches, or specialized encoding methods.

• Quantum-inspired algorithms that can be implemented on classical hardware but lay the groundwork for quantum approaches later.

  • Hybrid HPC-quantum workflows that cleverly minimize how much data needs to be loaded onto the quantum machine.

• Stay active in fundamental research: Encourage collaboration that addresses core bottlenecks — like better error mitigation, more efficient encoding schemes, or specialized hardware that can directly capture quantum data from physical processes.

And if you’re a scientist in quantum then a special responsibility falls onto your shoulders: speak out loudly and confidently. Especially in collaboration with clients and end-users because that is the only way that we will - together - solve adoption, tech and integration problems. Remember, use cases are just one piece of the puzzle.

Quantum is worth it.

And #QuantumIsComing

This is my personal newsletter, all opinions are mine and do not represent GQI, The Quantum Computing Report and other affiliated entities.

I just arrived in beautiful Doha to chair the Quantum.Tech Qatar conference and with 34,000 feet of perspective… here is mine.

Jensen Huang, NVIDIA’s CEO, raised quite the stir with his remarks on quantum computing, so much so that markets momentarily wobbled and a few suits wondered if quantum might be more vaporware than hardware. And everybody and their sister shared their opinion on LinkedIn and X. In school Jensen would have received an “F” from me; great response but you failed to answer the question. Quantum computing’s clock is ticking, and the next five to ten years will be crucial for positioning your organization to reap the benefits. Rather than exaggerated pessimism or optimism, and a myopic, misguided focus on revenues and cash flow models; active pragmatism is in order. I’ll anticipate the punchline: senior executives, government officials, and big investors need to act now:

1. Start With Strategic PoCs: Even if you’re not ready for a full-scale rollout, begin targeted proofs of concept now. Focus on areas where quantum can offer a short-to-medium-term ROI, such as security (PQC) or specialized simulations.

2. Plan for Post-Quantum Security: Integrate PQC readiness into your existing cyber security roadmap. The impending deadlines — highlighted by NSM-10 — leave little room for procrastination.

3. Invest in Talent and Partnerships: Lock in quantum-skilled talent early and look for vendor collaborations that offer domain-specific solutions. Partnerships reduce risk and accelerate time-to-value.

4. Balance Hardware & Software: While hardware is critical, don’t overlook the software layer. Allocate resources to algorithm development, hybrid solutions, and domain-focused toolkits that directly address your industry’s most pressing challenges.

5. Align With Global Initiatives: Keep a pulse on international quantum programs—whether in the EU, the USA, or elsewhere. Cross-border collaboration and intelligence-sharing can enrich your technical capabilities and strategic positioning.

6. Prepare for 2030: The year 2030 is shaping up to be a watershed moment. Align your budgets, teams, and strategic roadmaps around the arrival of 100+ logical qubits so you’re positioned to leap at new commercial and national security opportunities.

Those who seize quantum’s potential now will find themselves at a competitive advantage when the technology becomes mainstream. Those who wait too long risk losing out on the most significant computing revolution of our lifetime.

And as for more sunny, commercial use cases, let’s separate fact from hyperbole, and explore why quantum computing remains one of the most strategic plays for Fortune 500 executives, senior government officials, and big investors alike.

The CES Announcement and Its Ripples

At CES, NVIDIA’s chief executive hinted at the challenges facing quantum computing, alluding to tough roadblocks in scaling qubit counts reliably and delivering meaningful commercial value. Anyone who’s been to CES knows that sweeping statements are par for the course — and while Huang was perhaps painting a more conservative timeline, his commentary sparked immediate speculation. Was he pouring cold water on quantum’s near-term viability? Or was he simply cautioning that quantum computing still has hurdles to overcome before it dethrones classical computing in certain high-performance scenarios?

Or is he a very smart CEO, secretly and not so secretly investing into quantum while at the same time cautioning the market about NVIDIA’s competitors?

The reaction was predictable. Many headlines blared a variation of “Quantum Bubble: Is This Still For Real?” Some investors even dialed back their quantum portfolios, rationalizing that NVIDIA’s pull on the GPU and AI computing ecosystem might overshadow quantum in the near term. Even well-informed executives started to wonder if quantum would actually become mainstream. Let me be crystal clear here: Huang’s remarks shouldn’t be interpreted as a eulogy for quantum, but rather a reminder that the quantum revolution won’t be instant oatmeal. It takes time, perseverance, and quite a bit of resilience.

Why Quantum Matters

Despite the recent noise, we’re seeing tangible progress. Governments are investing heavily in quantum, whether it’s the EU’s multi-billion-euro quantum initiative or the U.S. National Quantum Initiative.

Technical progress in quantum computing will continue to ebb and flow. We’ll see breakthroughs (like new qubit designs, improved error correction, and hybrid quantum-classical algorithms) punctuated by periods of consolidation and recalibration. That iterative cycle doesn’t fit neatly with the hype cycles we often see at CES. But rest assured: the next decade remains the most promising horizon for quantum’s adoption. We’re not slamming on the brakes; rather, we’re changing gears to handle the inevitable climbs on the road to commercialization.

Hardware and Software

The market tends to focus on the hardware arms race — who’s got the biggest qubit count, or the best error rates. But the real opportunity in quantum also hinges on software and algorithms. As hardware matures, specialized algorithms and quantum development toolkits will be the gatekeepers of business value. GQI provides a comparative analysis of the quantum computing stack. It evaluates technical readiness levels (TRL) and performance across key components of the quantum stack, such as architecture, control logic, control plane, and quantum plane. And, of course, algorithms and applications.

Metrics like logical cycle times, quantum error correction (QEC), reaction times, thermal loads, and gate fidelity are assessed using a proprietary GQI scoring system. This approach highlights the distinct strengths and weaknesses of each platform, guiding stakeholders in identifying optimal approaches for early fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC) applications across all qubit modalities, hardware architectures and vendor roadmaps.

Certain sectors stand to gain enormous benefits from quantum, especially once we inch closer to reliable 100+ logical qubits. Even if NVIDIA’s caution slows certain investment patterns, these industries aren’t going to put the brakes on finding potential cures for diseases or revolutionary new materials. They’ll keep investing in quantum R&D because the payoff is too transformative to ignore.

If you glean nothing else from the hue and cry around CES, glean this: in times of uncertainty, partnerships can be a lifesaver. As the quantum ecosystem evolves, no single company can master all aspects of hardware, software, and use-case development. Pursue alliances with specialized quantum hardware firms, software developers, and research labs. The synergy often helps mitigate risk and optimize results. Start building your quantum bench — whether through training, hiring, or partnering — so you can act quickly when breakthroughs do happen.

Market Timing

The USA, China and the EU are investing heavily, each determined to leapfrog the other in fundamental research and technology rollouts. This is not just research-for-research’s-sake; it’s about national security, cybersecurity and economic competitiveness.

Regulation is rapidly becoming a strategic driver. With the White House’s NSM-10, the U.S. government signaled it wants quantum-safe encryption rolled out between 2025 and 2030. The race to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is not a distant concern— it’s happening now. Governments from Europe to Asia are drafting standards and mandates that will force corporations to adopt quantum-resistant systems. The message is clear: the cost of ignoring these regulations — or assuming they’re years away — could be massive, both in security breaches and legal liabilities. We need to adopt a "reasonable worst-case mindset" regarding the threat of quantum computers breaking classical encryption standards.

The transition period, during which data is susceptible to "harvest now, decrypt later" attacks, remains fluid and a "reasonable worst-case" assumption of quantum breakthroughs occurring within 5 years and the "usual assumption" of quantum threats emerging post-2035 both need to be weighted equally. The potential for advanced quantum and classical attacks, such as secret exploits and second-generation qubits leveraging modular scaling, advanced quantum error correction (QEC) codes, and improved algorithmic efficiency is real. The urgency of implementing quantum-resistant measures during the transitional period to mitigate vulnerabilities effectively is immense.

Quantum computing is a marathon, not a sprint. We’re pushing the boundaries of physics in ways that no other technology has before. Efforts from companies like IBM, Google, Microsoft, and others remain laser-focused on building reliable, scalable qubit systems. Roadmaps indicate we’re still on track for 100+ logical qubit devices by 2030.

Key Tipping Points are on the horizon with possible “winters” (periods of reduced investment and enthusiasm) or “shocks” (like cryptographic emergencies) that can significantly alter the pace of quantum adoption. The End-State Vision is that by the 2040s, in the most optimistic scenario, robust quantum networks could link fully fault-tolerant quantum computers and advanced quantum sensors, paving the way for an interconnected quantum infrastructure, sometimes referred to as a “Quantum Internet-of-Things.” And other expressions of quantum tech will take hold along the way.

Investors and Stakeholders need to be looking at quantum tech as an evolving, multi-path trajectory where market scenarios diverge and converge depending on technology readiness, policy, and funding.

Short vs. Long Term: Near-term (2025–2030) improvements are likely centered on NISQ-based advantage and early quantum networks. The truly transformative, large-scale impacts may only emerge in the 2030s and 2040s. Once fault-tolerant quantum computing, quantum-secure networks, and advanced quantum sensors become reality, the economic and societal impacts could be enormous — but the timeline to get there remains uncertain and scenario-dependent.

It is not about a specific timeline. It is about scenarios and pathways with specific risks and payoffs.

Market & Use-Cases

Hardware is the current star of the show, with companies across North America, Europe, and Asia jockeying to scale from dozens of noisy qubits to fully operational systems capable of 100+ logical qubits. We can expect the first wave of 100+ logical qubit machines to arrive as early as 2030, delivering a performance leap sufficient to tackle a broader range of enterprise-grade challenges. This signals a monumental shift from today’s mainly experimental stage toward genuine, practical quantum applications.

While 100 LQs in itself won’t be enough for breakthrough use cases, it will be a clear sign of product maturity and define market fit.

Multiple data points from industry roadmaps and government strategies converge on the early 2030s as the inflection point. By this time, we should see early fault-tolerant quantum systems (FTQC) start to break out of niche proof-of-concept projects and into more mainstream adoption.

The industry’s holy grail — viable quantum algorithms — remains extremely challenging. Because fully error-corrected, large-scale quantum computers are still under development, many researchers are turning to hybrid solvers that combine classical and quantum approaches. The data suggests that these hybrid strategies can reduce total qubit requirements by as much as 30%, enabling businesses to run meaningful experiments sooner.

Algorithms like Quantum Chemistry (e.g., nitrogenase and ruthenium), Factoring, Grover’s, Quantum Phase Estimation (QPE), Quantum Amplitude Estimation (QAE), and Quantum Dynamics are analyzed under different error correction codes and assumptions, including surface codes and Majorana-based approaches. We highlight the trade-offs between qubit requirements and runtime, with some algorithms requiring millions of qubits for practical execution (e.g., Factoring and Quantum Chemistry) while others like Grover’s demand fewer resources. Advanced error correction methods and improvements in logical cycle times (e.g., Floquet codes) can significantly reduce qubit counts and computational overhead. Challenges in scaling quantum hardware and the importance of algorithmic and technological advancements for enabling real-world quantum applications remain critical hurdles on any pathway.

Market Sizing

Industry projections from McKinsey and BCG place total quantum computing revenues at around $16 billion by 2030, $50 billion by 2040, and $100 billion longer term. Initially, hardware investments will command the lion’s share—around 80% of total spending. But post-2030, software’s share could rise to about 20%, climbing to 25% by 2040 as we shift from the “heavy iron” phase to leveraging software services, specialized algorithms, and domain-driven solutions.

We expect a period of steady, measurable growth throughout the 2020s. Crucially, early fault-tolerant quantum computers could deliver around $2 billion in software-driven revenue by 2030–2032. In other words, the interplay between newly available fault-tolerant hardware and advanced software environments is where we’ll see the first hints of quantum’s transformative effects on enterprise-scale workflows.

GQI predicts the Quantum Addressable Market (QAM) from 2025 to 2030 to be of a similar size ($15B to $20B excluding quantum safe migrations), highlighting a steady and exponential increase in market value over time. Categories such as quantum sensing (e.g., detection, ranging, and medical diagnostics), cybersecurity (e.g., quantum-safe protocols and discovery/remediation), simulation (e.g., materials design, energy conversion, and pharma drug development), machine learning (e.g., fraud prevention and autonomous vehicles), and optimization (e.g., finance portfolio and logistics) form the key contributors. The diversity of applications reflects the transformative potential of quantum computing across industries, with a notable emphasis on simulation and optimization in early stages, followed by increasing adoption in cybersecurity and advanced machine learning by 2040 and beyond. We underscore the broadening scope of quantum technology's economic impact, with the market estimated to exceed $1 trillion annually by mid-century.

Conclusion & Recommendations

Jensen Huang’s CES comments on quantum computing may have rattled the markets, but they shouldn’t derail a forward-looking strategy. Quantum computing was never about instantaneous disruption; it’s about sustained evolution toward milestone achievements. If you’re a Fortune 500 executive, government official, or major investor, here are my best recommendations:

1. Stay the Course with a Dual Strategy

   • Hardware: Keep an eye on evolving roadmaps and gauge the maturity of qubit technologies.

   • Software & Algorithms: Invest in quantum software ecosystems, focusing on short- to mid-term proofs of concept that de-risk your broader strategy.

2. Anticipate the Regulatory Imperative

   • Post-Quantum Cryptography: Begin or accelerate your transition to PQC standards now, as governments worldwide are turning the regulatory screws.

   • Security & Compliance: Factor quantum-readiness into your cybersecurity budgeting, especially given looming mandates.

3. Focus on Industry-Specific Use Cases

   • Healthcare, Energy, and Manufacturing: Prioritize quantum PoCs where the upside is largest and the product cycles most benefit from advanced simulation and optimization.

   • Talent & Expertise: Collaborate with domain-savvy partners who can build or tailor quantum algorithms specific to your industry’s highest-impact challenges.

4. Increase Vendor & Research Partnerships

   • Diversify Your Allies: Don’t rely on a single technology stack or vendor. The quantum space is dynamic; hedging your bets with multiple approaches is wise.

   • Co-Investments: Pool resources with peers or government grants to accelerate quantum research and technology readiness.

5. Keep the 2030 Milestone in Perspective

   • Milestones vs. Hype: Realistic milestones (such as achieving 100+ logical qubits) remain on track. Stay agile, but don’t abandon your long-view strategic bets because of one set of cautionary remarks.

   • Long-Term Vision: Quantum computing will slowly disrupt entire value chains. Position your organization to capitalize, rather than be forced to play catch-up down the line.

Markets can be skittish - and many CEOs relish the spotlight - opinions from tech luminaries will understandably shake short-term perceptions. But quantum computing remains an arena with enormous long-term strategic value. Your best defense against the ups and downs of the hype cycle? A balanced, proactive strategy that continuously readjusts around emerging technical, regulatory, and commercial realities.

Give me a call, Jensen - quantum school is in session!

#QuantumIsComing

This is my personal newsletter, all opinions are mine and do not represent GQI, The Quantum Computing Report and other affiliated entities.

It’s been a while… life. But hey, welcome back to my Quantum Computing Substack, where we decode the quantum realm for the leaders shaping tomorrow shaping the trajectory of quantum technology. More specifically, I want to address a critical need in the quantum landscape, one that has emerged from my countless conversations with governments, industry leaders, and academia alike: the demand for an independent, unbiased third party in a realm increasingly laden with conflicting incentives.

Buckle up, because quantum technology is not just another technology wave—this one will reshape economies, industries, and geopolitical balances far beyond the next quarter. Maybe even humanity as we know it.

Quantum Tech as a Revolution in the Making

The quantum technology revolution is very much underway, with extraordinary potential to transform industries and even birth entirely new ones. While it’s exhilarating to see the groundswell of activity—startups sprouting faster than mushrooms on a rainy day, research papers piling up at breakneck speed—it is equally critical to differentiate hype from reality.

The Birth of New Industries

We’re at the brink of quantum-enabled industries—ranging from new drug discovery platforms and advanced materials simulation to next-generation cryptography. Yet, amid all the excitement, it’s essential we balance short-term applications (the ones that yield immediate revenues and keep startups alive) with the broader vision of quantum’s long-term disruptive impact. The last thing we need is for myopic goals to undermine the foundation of what quantum can truly accomplish.

Mixed Results, Unwavering Focus

Let’s be honest: not every quantum pilot project or minimal viable product (MVP aka NISQ) is going to pan out. Some solutions won’t scale, others will stall, and quite a few are glossier marketing than genuine solutions. But these experiments—however misguided they may occasionally be—are necessary stepping stones toward maturity. We cannot lose our long-term enthusiasm, even as real-world applications remain in flux.

Quantum Tech as a National Security Threat (and Opportunity)

Any technology potent enough to revolutionize entire industries will inevitably reshape the geopolitical landscape. Quantum technology is no exception—indeed, it may redefine national security more profoundly than artificial intelligence. Here’s why.

Hybrid Warfare and National Security

Conflicts today are increasingly technology-centric: from disinformation campaigns amplified by AI to advanced cyber attacks that exploit zero-day vulnerabilities. In this arena, quantum technology will have an even bigger impact than AI. The obvious headline is Shor’s algorithm and its looming threat to current cryptographic standards. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Once quantum hardware matures, it could accelerate the discovery of novel weaponry or enhance the accuracy and complexity of simulations vital for defense.

A Race for Technological Dominance

Government investment in quantum is accelerating with staggering speed worldwide. Yet this race often suffers from poorly defined strategies, goals, and differentiation: the familiar FOMO phenomenon drives politicians and bureaucrats to heap money into quantum programs with uncertain endgames. All the while, potential adversaries—both state and non-state actors—also see quantum as an enabler for unprecedented offensive and defensive capabilities.

Many Poorly Incentivized Stakeholders

In the midst of this high-stakes environment, it’s worth noting that some of the biggest players in quantum tech—while undeniably brilliant—are saddled with incentives that don’t always align with an optimal, long-term roadmap.

1. Vendors and Startups These are the heroes of innovation, but they also face market pressure, investor expectations, and in some cases, the daily need for immediate revenue. As a result, roadmaps can get reshaped not by pure technical progress but by what sells—or by what matches the flavor-of-the-month in government grants.

2. Research Organizations Think tanks, universities, and labs are also under pressure to publish and win grants. Prestige in academic circles often trumps the kind of slow, methodical work that fosters practical breakthroughs.

3. Governments With quantum at the center of a new frontier arms race, national governments are rushing to inject capital into any quantum project that carries a veneer of progress. The result? Poorly coordinated initiatives that risk duplication—and unrealistic deliverables—instead of strategic, sustainable advancement.

4. Experts A plethora of experts, most of which are undeniably smart and professional, many well intended. Yet, they need to sell and most of the time they sell their - time. This is a conflict of interest, especially when their time is split between quantum, Blockchain, AI and other new techs. Quantum is too complex to be understood as the latest fad.

Put bluntly, the entire quantum ecosystem is forging ahead, but with incentives that can lead to sub-optimal outcomes. That’s where the need for trustworthy, independent guidance becomes urgent.

The Case for a Trusted, Unbiased Third Party

Now, let’s be clear: quantum is not just a science project or an ephemeral tech fad. It’s an engine of economic value, national security capability, and industrial transformation. If you are at the helm of a Fortune 500, a government agency, or a major investment fund, you must navigate this complexity responsibly. Here’s how.

Why an Independent Arbiter is Essential

Enter the independent third party. Neutral, data-driven, and unencumbered by the short-term constraints of venture capital or the political imperatives of government funding. A trusted authority that can say, “No, your quantum roadmap is misguided” or “Yes, here’s where you should be focusing resources.”

Since 2015, GQI (Global Quantum Intelligence) has aimed to be precisely this sort of unbiased resource. We are driven and incentivized by providing transparent intelligence to decision-makers, devoid of vendor spin or academic glory-chasing. We can have the conversations you cannot have. We have the intelligence, in context, that you cannot have. Simply because that’s what we get paid for - it’s our business model and it’s unique. It took many years to build.

The GQI Methodology

To ensure our intelligence is bulletproof, we eschew reliance on press releases, marketing surveys, or so-called “expert” interviews that often function more like echo chambers. Instead, we employ rigorous technical, product, strategy, and commercial frameworks—co-developed with leading providers since 2018—and fill them with our own proprietary data and intelligence. This approach might not always give you the most comfortable answers, but it is the only basis for truly smart decision-making in a complex, high-stakes domain like quantum.

Measuring the Economic Impact

At the end of the day, quantum success must be measured in real-world outcomes—economic value, national security dividends, and strategic positioning. GQI’s methodology ensures that every scenario, every roadmap, is connected to tangible value drivers:

1. Financial Impact
   We map out the top- and bottom-line implications of adopting quantum technologies, providing ROI metrics that CFOs can plug into their models.

2. Strategic Clarity
   For high-level executives and government leaders, GQI offers scenario planning to clarify where quantum investments could yield a lasting competitive edge.

3. Geopolitical & Defense Decisions
   Because quantum is as much about national security as it is about commerce, we factor in geopolitical risks and opportunities—vital for defense agencies and international investors.

Actionable Recommendations for Leaders

Now that we’ve explored the explosive potential, national security implications, and the fraught incentive landscape of quantum, here’s what I urge you—Fortune 500 CEOs, government ministers, sovereign fund managers—to do next:

1. Demand Independent Verification Before you write that next quantum check, seek a dispassionate assessment. Do not rely solely on vendor roadmaps or glossy white papers. An impartial, data-driven audit can be the difference between a make-or-break investment - not just an academic, highly scientific view.

2. Develop a Long-Term Strategy Balance short-term wins (that keep your stakeholders excited) with a robust roadmap extending 5, 10, even 15 years. Quantum capabilities will expand in leaps, and you need to be ready.

3. Prioritize National Security & Geopolitical Alignment For governments and defense-related entities, integrate quantum into your broader strategic and defense frameworks. The arms race is real, and the stakes are high.

4. Collaborate, Don’t Duplicate Within your organization, unify R&D, strategic investment, and operational teams around shared objectives. Across the global quantum community, push for synergy rather than overlapping fiefdoms.

5. Insist on Data-Driven Methodologies Steer clear of hype-based decisions. Use metrics, validated frameworks, and scenario analyses that directly tie back to economic, strategic, and societal impact. Insist on transparency to foster conversation rather than yay or nay answers.

A revolution is rarely neat or predictable, and the quantum era is no exception. But it’s also a period of unprecedented opportunity—if navigated wisely. An independent, trusted third party can be your best guide through the hype cycles, the conflicting incentives, and the swirling geopolitical crosscurrents. And I say that not as a promoter of some neat new consulting fad, but as someone who has seen firsthand how quantum leaps can stall without guidance that is both bold and objective.

Let’s keep our eyes on the real prize: transforming industries, economies, and global security for the better, all while making quantum not just a scientific marvel but a tangible driver of strategic value.

Until next time—stay quantum, stay vigilant, and stay prepared. May 2025 be prosperous and safe for all!

#QuantumIsComing

This is my personal newsletter, all opinions are mine and do not represent GQI, The Quantum Computing Report and other affiliated entities.

I am not sure that I even knew the difference between the two before my 3 days in Sherbrooke, Canada but I must tell you that natural wines beat the competition any day.

Natural wines use minimal intervention and processing, whereas organic wines are produced with regular methods. Natural wines are organic but not all organic wines are natural. Lastly - and this is where it gets important my fellow quantum friends - natural wines, unlike organic wines, do not use additives - critically: sulfites.

While not my most important learning from the 1st Alain Aspect Symposium held in Sherbrooke on November 23rd, it is definitely my favorite one because this lesson was taught to me by no other than the Nobel Prize winner himself. And he is a forceful teacher who does not like to be argued with.

In a 15 minute, one-on-one lecture on the evening of Thanksgiving day I was schooled in wine and the consequences of sulfite on your health the morning after. And when I brought up the merits of beer (I'm German after all) the night did not end in my favor.

Two weeks earlier Christophe Jurczak from Quantonation had reached out to me and asked if I would be up for coming to Quebec over the holiday. And luckily I said…

In a quantum tech ecosystems with too many meaningless conferences, and so many regional programs that call themselves “the first”, “the best” and “transformative”, my 3 days in the northerly snow turned out to be an eye-opener and real relationship builder.

So off I went from my tropical paradise to this small town 2 hours east of Montreal, not knowing what to expect.

Let me tell you!

First of all, snow. How do people even survive here?

Second of all, a pioneering and extremely ambitious quantum tech ecosystem. The symposium, held on the 23rd, was preceded by a day of festivities during which Prof. Alain Aspect was awarded an honorary doctorate from the University of Sherbrooke.

On Thursday we were hosted by the Institut Quantique, founded in 2016, a beautiful new building with 3 quantum computers right there in the lobby, 26 professors (not in the lobby) and almost 150 students, for a long morning of talks around quantum & pharma. The speakers were the creme de la creme and unusually transparent as to their activities and current state. To no surprise, quantum today is a hybrid solution with classical resources and a lot of A.I. to boost - it was refreshing to see a number of slides that made this very transparent and tangible.

Prof. Aspect - most curious and asking questions to virtually every speaker - remarked how amazed he was at the technical progress, something he never expected to see in his lifetime. And encouraged us all to more closely collaborate with researchers, saying that there is still a lot of basic science that needs to be done.

The real fun began in the afternoon when we were taken on a tour of the local ecosystem - this is where it all came together for me.

In the picturesque city of Sherbrooke, Quebec, a quiet quantum revolution is brewing, and at its core is a formidable trio:

1. The Institut quantique (IQ) at the Université de Sherbrooke

2. The Interdisciplinary Institute for Technological Innovation (3IT)

3. The MiQro Innovation Collaborative Centre (C2MI), now joined by the DistriQ Quantum Innovation Zone

IQ does cutting-edge research, recognized by the government as an Innovation Zone, and is a beacon of quantum advancement, nurturing a robust ecosystem where academia and industry intersect to push the boundaries of quantum technologies. The institute places a strong emphasis on student involvement and aims to bridge the gap between science and the application of quantum technologies.

3IT, a melting pot of innovation, where researchers and industries unite to turn ideas into impact. Spanning digital transformation to sustainable energy, 3IT is where challenges in promising sectors are met with solutions that foster the development of impactful technologies across various domains, including digital transformation, robotics, health, and sustainable energy. Housed in a 7,000 square meter facility, it acts as a crucible for collaboration between scientists and industry, embodying the full innovation chain from design to valorization.

The C2MI stands tall as a linchpin of this ecosystem, a hub where microelectronic wonders are born. Backed by a $175 million arsenal of high-tech tools, C2MI bridges the chasm between research and real-world applications, fostering a climate where microelectronic innovations can flourish across diverse industries. Being the largest electronic systems research and development center in Canada, it is revered for its contributions to the development and commercialization of components essential for digital technologies.

Joining them is DistriQ, the newly christened Quantum Innovation Zone. It represents the next stride in Sherbrooke's quantum journey, cementing partnerships that span across the venture capital and technological enterprise landscape, and nurturing the growth of quantum startups.

Quantacet is a venture capital firm founded in 2023 and is the first and only VC fund in Quebec to focus on the global quantum technology market. Quantacet invests in early-stage quantum startups that are working on solutions to some of the world's biggest challenges. Quantacet's managing partner is Martin Laforest. He is a trained quantum physicist, product manager, and scientific outreach expert with over 15 years of experience

QV Studio is a Startup Studio partnering with two venture capital funds, Quantonation and Quantacet dedicated, like it, to quantum technologies. QV Studio's mission is to create and de-risk university spinoffs developing quantum technologies to transform different markets, including energy, health, sustainability, etc.

Quantonation, the famous French quantum tech VC, is a key instigator of this new ecosystem, funder of several of the initiatives and a provider of startup talent with some of its portfolio companies already having established offices in Sherbrooke.

The convergence of these institutions creates an ecosystem that is more than the sum of its parts. It's a nexus where the future is not just predicted, but actively shaped. Sherbrooke's quantum technology ecosystem is not just contributing to science; it's laying down the groundwork for an economy brimming with high-tech promise.

What was palpable in Sherbrooke is the unique combination of talent & expertise with tight integration amongst key stakeholders based on a flexible, demand driven shared infrastructure such as the Angstron Quantum Series below, providing a 200mm fab for Josephson Junctions.

The gentleman standing behind me, with a knack for fancy tropical shirts, is Vincent Aimez, Vice-President Partnerships and Knowledge Transfer at the Université de Sherbrooke. A man with a clear vision, strong strategy and flawless execution - one of the many driving forces of this ecosystem.

The next day saw the official inauguration of DistriQ, which led the Prime Minister, François Legault, to join our quantum crowd - and he had some big announcements.

The inauguration of Espace Quantique 1 (EQ1) and its Quantum Technology Development Laboratory (DevTeQ). Both an innovation centre and an international showcase, EQ1 is intended to serve as a gateway to the Sherbrooke and Quebec ecosystem, and indeed to Canada and North America. This announcement follows PINQ2's unveiling of the computer IBM Quantum System One last September.

Located at 1950 rue Roy in Sherbrooke, Espace Quantique 1 (EQ1) is a vast 50,000 sq. ft. space entirely dedicated to the quantum technology industry. EQ1 provides startups, companies and other organizations in the ecosystem with private office space and shared workspaces. A 20,000 sq. ft. world-class shared laboratory, called the DevTeQ, is also part of the building. Some fifteen companies and partners will share this unique space, totalling over one hundred highly qualified professionals. This new Innovation Center gives companies access to state-of-the-art laboratory equipment for the development of quantum technologies and accelerates their adoption by industry.

This initiative is supported by the Quebec government to the tune of over $28.77 million, for a total investment of $40.8 million. Espace Quantique 1 will further structure the development of this field of expertise, facilitating the transition from research to commercialization and job creation. In addition, Desjardins is contributing $1 million.

Georges-Olivier, the CEO of Pasqal, announced an investment of more than $90.6 million - including a $15M loan from Quebec - over five years by the company, resulting in the creation of more than 50 jobs, and their second manufacturing facility dedicated to serving the North American market.

QV Studio announced that they will accept up to 20 startups with the goal of creating 400 jobs and attracting $120 million in VC money.

Apparently, EQ2 is already on the drawing board.

The man who pulled all of this together is an investor, at least that's what he calls himself (he has a quantum tech portfolio stuffed with future unicorns to prove it). But Christophe, and Quantonation, is much more than that - true visionaries and builders.

Not only did he get an amazing group of quantum folks to Canada, he was able to rally local government, enterprise and academia to undertake an innovation experiment never done before in quantum and it is set to write an important page in the history books of our industry. Bravo Monsieur!

More than anything, I'm just grateful to be a small part of all of this. Beyond being inhumanly smart and ambitious, all the people I interacted with were just genuinely nice and fun - the Nord Quantique team hosted me at their (under construction) office, Mathieu from Qnami and I went to explore coffee shops and I narrowly escaped an evening jog in the snow. Georges-Olivier and Loic came to grab me, excited like kids at Christmas, to insist that I experience the new Pasqal VR quantum computing world. The prime Minister cracked jokes that cannot be written down in this professional newsletter. And our Québécois friends are just friendly and happy by nature - it's the snow I guess.

Alain wished me farewell in German, like every French who studied it in school, and I was excited to show him a picture of the only quantum poster in my office. He immediately recognized it, even somewhat emotional, and told me about how he had met those reporters back in the day. He couldn't believe that I found a copy of it - I'll be putting it into the mail direction Paris ASAP.

And while this year I had no Turkey, I surely had a Thanksgiving to remember. Legendary.

#QuantumIsComing

This is my personal newsletter, all opinions are mine and do not represent GQI, The Quantum Computing Report and other affiliated entities.

Subscribe now

Share

Then Hollywood came along and encouraged me not to think so small.

As I'm getting ready to travel to London where I'll be speaking at CogX - the technology leadership summit - I thought it would be fun to revel in my dream of bold quantum technology a bit more.

Below you can find a discount code to join me at CogX - read on after it as I share my vision.

We are delighted to announce that we’ve partnered with CogX Festival 2023! The CogX Festival is BACK and it’s bigger than EVER:
- 🎟️ Tickets Available Now at: https://lnkd.in/dZ_H7gmR.
- ❗️3 days, 90,000 Visitors, 1000 Speakers, 200 Topics, Masterclasses, Huge New Expo
- ❓The Mission: addressing the question “How do we get the next 10 years right?”
- 🙌🏽 Now with 3 Incredible Summits Under One Roof
- 💻 DeepTech Summit - Hear about all the latest research and innovation.
- 💬 Industry Transformation Summit - What should I deploy today?
- 👥 Global Leadership Summit - How do we prepare for the future?
- 📈 Brand New Startup Programme - Accelerate you plans.
- 💷 New £25,000 cash grant for the Rising Star Award.
- 🗓️ New Dates 12th to 14th September.
- 📍New Location O2 Arena North Greenwich in London and Canary Wharf.
- 💲Most affordable yet: Expo passes start at £45. Platinum pass offers execs exclusive speaker lunches and curated themed networking events.

Buy your tickets here: https://lnkd.in/dZ_H7gmR 

To receive a 15% discount on any of the following passes: Platinum, Gold, Standard use GLS1QUANTUM23 code.

To receive a 15% discount on an investor pass use 30INV1QUANTUM23 code.

Here is what my message on stage at CogX will be: incremental quantum tech will be its death!

Where I am going with this: quantum tech is something new not something better.

Some liken it to the invention of fire, the wheel, electricity or the internet. And yes, quantum computers, networks or sensors sure are better in certain aspects than their classical cousins.

However, they are rooted in quantum mechanics, which is an entirely new understanding of a completely different world. Hence, using quantum technology to do existing things better, faster, cheaper is falling short of its promise and jeopardizing our quantum future.

Vendors, consultants, experts, bankers and other quantum enthusiasts have become so good at innovation that the temptation to productize and commercialize what we have today is hard to resist. Let’s make the enterprise 15% better, it’s worth billions.

My hope is that inventing something new won’t become impossible in consequence.

What “Heart of Stone”, a new Netflix movie, proposes is not entirely new to be fair. Yet, it stretches the boundaries of innovation in welcome ways - and maybe that is a futuristic middle-ground an entrepreneur might be able to take on to help invent what’s next.

A note on data privacy

Heart of Stone hinges on the fact that "Heart" - the quantum computer - is all knowing due to its ability to break any encryption and harvest any source of data. While it uses this data for good (so it seems) to build predictive models, I, in no way, condone such violation of personal privacy or enterprise confidentiality. 

Heart of Stone is fictional, as is this hypothetical use case. I use it for illustrative purposes of what will be possible one day - it's up to the user (us humans) to decide if the outcome is benevolent or harmful. 

Now buckle up, #QuantumIsComing

In the Netflix movie Heart of Stone, the Heart is a quantum computer that can hack into anything, including cell phones, power grids, banks, governments, and military systems.

What the heart does with this mythical, yet, very tangible ability, is to collect data. All data. Literally.

Thanks to access to all of this data, the heart is able to build predictive models for any type of analysis.

Want to know what a company stock will be doing tomorrow? The heart will tell you and provide you a confidence interval for the prediction. Is your favorite sports team winning this weekend? Will you fall in love with the person on your first date tonight? The heart has the answer to most questions you can imagine.

The confidence intervals the heart propose are stunningly high. However, even the heart is no oracle…. yet.

As the data changes in real time (maybe you’re having one glass of wine too many on that first date) or the time horizon for your prediction becomes too long, the accuracy of the prediction quickly deteriorates.

The heart is not a sentient machine; it simply predicts everything, continuously modelling all the data it receives.

The sources of data - from the web, personal devices, protected databases - are augmented by “live” data from its users. In this case, agents of a secretive organization, fighting for good.

These agents carry various sensors, augmented reality contact lenses, (very) smart phones and other gadgets that provide a feedback loop of real time events. Are you engaged in an afternoon car pursuit through downtown Rome? Now you can send back data on pedestrian movements, natural obstacles and other information that the heart might be unable to gather via its sources.

The resulting prediction, continuously displayed in the same augmented reality interface, adjusts accordingly.

Ultimately, it provides an analysis and recommendations of the best course of action. Turn right at Via dei Trevi. Don’t buy that company stock. Order a glass of water instead.

Heart of Stone is not my all time favorite movie, however, I was struck by how they presented the #quantum aspects, which I find inspiring. Here is why:

❤️ Name: Heart. That's cute. Quantum for good and quantum at the core of it all. Not just some enterprise application.

Quantum is actually sitting at the heart of the entire system and enables it. Not just a quantum computer but also sensors, networking and encryption. An end to end solution powered by various quantum technologies working hand in hand.

Truly beautiful.

🖇️ Use case: A cryptographically relevant QC (kept on a space station for safety) used to collect and analyze data to build predictive models. Thinking big (let's discuss data privacy later 🗓️). And it isn’t used to steal your money or shut down our power plants, rather, to enable better decision making in a real life context.

We might argue over how the movie expresses this. Surely, not all of us are secret agents fighting evil.

Using it to find the optimal solution, in real time, of a hard problem and implementing it immediately.

Game changer!

⚒️ Application: The way it is put into action, with a central operator orchestrating the data sources, scenario planning and real time tasks, is a strong example of how to integrate humans and technology.

All of this works seemingly across devices, types of data, languages and other tactical obstacles; evidence of a very flexible, scalable and solid architecture on which the tech stack has been built.

Communication is done via all mediums - voice, text, data, video - again, all fully integrated and building on each other.

I have worked in enterprise tech long enough to know that building a system like this would be a fantastic feat. It can be done but only outside the constraint of enterprise business models and investor expectations.

👓 User interface: A holographic 3D interface putting the user at the center and enabling her to visually pick sources of data, overlay them with entities, concepts, geographies and gradually zoom in on specific aspects. Going from big picture to specific solution.

This was first done in the Mission Impossible movie with Tom Cruise looking for clues and evidence. Heart of Stone takes this a big step forward but the approach remains the same.

Make data and content tangible. Detach it from its source. Make it all interactive and fully discoverable. Give it space (literally) so that the user can discover new objectives.

UI’s like this can be built, in fact, the designer behind Mission Impossible did so with a company named Oblong. Deployment and adoption of such an UI will take a lot of behavior change, though, from enterprise buyers and end users. Again, a Tony Stark type of entrepreneur will need to break down existing thinking and rebuild the future.

🛜 Integration: Beyond the UI, the Heart is streamed onto AR devices across a distributed team, enabling them to contribute data and benefit from up to date analysis for best possible decision making.

An API dream or nightmare? You decide!

But it shows what is possible if you build systems from scratch with a big vision from the start and the tools to succeed. This is the opposite of what happens in technology most of the time - build an application and then figure out how to load data into it and distribute your results.

Holistic system thinking is a financial and strategic risk that only the very bold who are not afraid to break the status quo can undertake.

⛑️ For good: With power comes responsibility.

A cryptographically relevant quantum computer might be the most powerful weapon imaginable. Unrestrained access to any strategic, financial, enterprise or military system in the world.

Scary stuff.

Hollywood resisted that temptation and didn’t do yet another doomsday movie. Society and policymaker need to figure out how to keep pace with technological development and enable “good” use cases for powerful technology.

This will only happen if users, entrepreneurs and investors pro-actively push this type of agenda.

A nice dream.

This is why incremental improvements stand in the way of breakthroughs. The tasks are too big, the risks too significant and the vision too bold.

It takes determination, ambition and stamina to pursue something like this and it directly conflicts with the current ways of doing - this is how quantum technology might die a slow enterprise death.

We already collect data, do predictive modeling and use it for better decision making. However, Heart of Stone takes this a significant step further and weaves it into a new fabric of human artificial intelligence, personalized to the user and contextual to the task at hand. While this might not be the next wheel or fire, it is a tremendous example of how new technologies can dramatically alter (in a good way) our reality and opportunities.

Fair warning: I am crazy about quantum tech so please do not follow my advice.

Anyone wants to team up to build bold quantum tech for good together? See you in London

#QuantumIsComing

❗😮❗GQI's seminal report on Quantum Sensing is now live, shedding light on one of the most transformative realms within quantum technology.

Quantum Sensing, synergizing with quantum computing, quantum-safe cryptography, and expansive quantum communications, is a linchpin in the quantum tech evolution. With its roots anchored in metrology, it's poised to reshape many advanced timing, sensing, and imaging modalities.

🔑 Key Takeaways:
🌐 Rigorous breakdown of the quantum sensing stack, including:
🧪 Physics package
🎛️ Control package
🖥️ Control logic
📡 Frameworks for diverse sensing modalities: time, magnetic field, electric field, gravity, acceleration, etc.
📊 Contextualized insights into the current activities, offering a panoramic view of the quantum sensing landscape.

This report is a treasure trove of data-driven insights and forward-looking analysis for those at the forefront of quantum technology. 🚀

🔗 Dive deep into the quantum realm! Access the full report on GQI's website.
https://loom.ly/Uw5QfSw

This is my personal newsletter, all opinions are mine and do not represent GQI, The Quantum Computing Report and other affiliated entities.

My writing has been sporadic recently - apologies to those of you who miss it - as I’ve been lucky enough to travel the world and spread the word on quantum. Use cases are a topic that comes up again and again. So here are some quick thoughts on how to think about it pragmatically - full disclosure, no silver bullets are to be found in this post.

Also, very excited to be partnering with CogX in London at the O2 Arena this fall - the leading innovation festival in the world.

The need for enterprise use cases

Certainly, a lot of work remains to be done on hard- and software in quantum tech, especially computing. We lean on a tremendous brain trust and energy to accomplish this, with well defined product roadmaps, that make me confident we will be able to put technical challenges to bed within 3 - 5 years.

Quantum algorithms are a different cup of tea but, for the purpose of this article, I will operate on the principle of hope in that respect.

With that, use case discovery is on everybody’s mind - for better or worse. No point to argue about the readiness of the technology anymore and better to focus that energy on actually making an impact.

The IQT Nordic Summit - join us in Denmark and RSVP now

Where are vendors making money today?

By now, we all are accustomed to “earning announcements” in quantum tech. What would have seemed ludacris to many just a year ago, now is part of our routine as we check in on the latest news in our sector. Do these announcements suggest a breakthrough in applications? Well, if you look closely, current revenues are messy and not scalable:

• Cloud - this is the number one revenue contributor across quantum computing; and definitely a scalable exception. Due to the computational complexity of quantum algorithms they quickly rack up a significant amount of “cloud credits”, the unitary value IBM, Google, Azure or AWS measure their cloud revenues by. The market for this is still in its infancy and will continue to grow significantly. However, this is limited to a small number of vendors, most of which are OEMs

• Consulting - nobody talks about it, everybody does it. In fact, what is packaged as a partnership (see below) is, in essence, nothing else but a consulting agreement in quantum tech. Of course, you cannot scale that advisory service without scaling the underlying technology - chicken or the egg - hence, this market, non-core to most ventures, is limited in its size and growth

• R&D partnerships - while these include more than consulting (think software, compute seconds, algorithms, etc) they are R&D focused. And while those budgets are fueled by seemingly endless government grants, R&D is a long term market for only a few players. Scale can only come in the commercial market.

• Education - extremely necessary and urgent, the little sister to consulting, we see more and more vendors offering educational products and services as part of their revenue mix. Again, a scalable market for only a handful of providers. The pie simply ain’t big enough.

Revenues from what we would consider an “enterprise use case” trend towards nill in this current context.

What you will see in the next couple of years

Where are vendors looking for new/more revenues?

• Long term partnerships - we see the re-emergence of long term partnerships. Pioneered by IBM who used to ink multi year, multi million dollar deals with customers in quantum. There is a small set of large startups out there that is bringing this approach back for specific mega applications (think quantum + AI, for example)

• Private clouds - the success of the cloud is undeniable but not everybody will make it onto AWS or Azure, or want to split their revenues. In consequence, more and more startups are looking into offering their own private clouds

• HPC market - IQM and European HPC centers were most likely the first to explore this route to market, and successfully though. While the number of HPC centers is limited, and on-premise hardware presents a different price point than cloud, this is a viable market

• Data center market - other ventures are replicating this approach with data centers, a larger overall addressable market and, clearly, closer to the data. If you’re able to find trusting clients this is an interesting new target segment

• Small, hybrid use cases - the biggest “success story” in the commercial quantum world is a handful of vendors that are seeing increasing enterprise traction by being very very smart. Specifically, this means that they have figured out how to combine world-class SME with very narrow (optimization) problems to which they can bring a quantum advantage in tandem with classical resources

These are all very promising and intelligent approaches that we are excited to see progress. Yet, again, not a commercial enterprise market at scale for more than a small handful of vendors at best. The pie simply ain’t big enough.

Where to find long term enterprise revenue?

If the above doesn’t offer a satisfying answer then where do we find it? Well, it is not what you expect. It is twofold:

1. Take a proven enterprise sales approach

2. Be bold

Probably these two are mutually exclusive so as a vendor you’d have to pick either one.

Why enterprise sales is so hard for quantum tech vendors

The reason behind that is simple - it takes a lot of resources to execute and quantum tech is still immature. Hence, many are taking - warranted - shortcuts and run directly towards a set of well known use cases hoping to demonstrate progress.

This is a viable strategy for a handful of vendors at best. The pie simply ain’t big enough.

And at the enterprise level it’s all about having the breath and focus to succeed. Let’s get pragmatic on how to do this.

Find your opportunity

As simple as this sounds, when we speak to vendors, and we speak to them every day, we still see little of this.

Take the time to clearly analyze, understand and define what your specific opportunity is.

Define your TAM/SAM/SOM

Any b-school grad can recite this in their sleep, yet, again, we see few vendors out there who have a clearly articulated understanding of their buyer.

Founders and VCs alike too often get blinded by the TAM and fail to properly define & size the SAM/SOM, see here for a vivid example by The Information.

Tell your story

Marketing and branding is crucial and your buyer is emotional and human - less tech, more business case and more references is what is needed.

And while we see more and more vendors hiring PR teams, and some really cool branding out there, many still do not execute on a consistent marketing strategy. See this guide by TechCrunch if you want to get serious about it.

Your buyers have very specific expectations, that are not as much about your quantum chops as you might think - see here These buying decisions are made by a team and rooted in a business case, and, many times, the buyer doesn’t know how to buy your product well and needs your help in deciding see Gartner

That is the purpose of marketing, not, in fact, building a nice website.

Be realistic about your runway

Deep tech is hard to measure/compare, especially in the early stages. Deep tech startups can take a risk on market timing, which means that there’s less traction to evaluate and more emphasis is put on the team and the defensibility of the IP. Part of the challenge in deep tech is getting to revenue and scaling. There’s a slower adoption curve than SaaS or consumer, and it often requires market education and selling services to enter the market.

Be sure you understand how to appropriately resource the various steps of that ladder.

Sales has changed

The days of campaigns and account reps are gone. Today, it takes leaders who are experts and personally close the deal.

The issue here is that many founders are simply too smart.

But don’t necessarily have the skills - or affinity - for sales.

So they hire somebody from the outside, with fancy credentials and pedigree, to do the selling.

…and then wonder why it is not working.

In early stage DeepTech, selling is the founder’s & CEO’s task since it is as much about business development as it is about revenue. You have to build and maintain that feedback loop and as soon as you outsource it, you will lose touch - and fail to close deals.

This is the single biggest mistake in quantum tech at this point with respect to taking the next growth step.

Buying revenue

This is a strategic pillar, which, too, is all too often lacking in quantum tech. And you don’t need millions in the bank to start executing on it. Even small steps make a big difference, just like on the moon…

A famous study from the 70’s shows how your overall cash position dramatically increases with scale. And the fundamental economics of this hold true today.

There is a very good reason to buy market share to increase revenue. There is also a reason to buy market share to gain SME expertise - a critical ingredient as discussed above.

Companies often have to make these build vs buy decisions; an interesting analysis by BCG looked at this question in the context of Artificial Intelligence in 2018.

I propose a similar framework to help Quantum Tech companies facilitate build vs buy decisions.

Pragmatically this means that you want to:

• Buy commodities

• Buy into the danger zone

• Build your gold mines

• Build your hidden opportunities

Have you mapped this out for your company?

The above is standard practice in enterprise technology and it is super hard to execute on. But, for those that don’t want to compete in the rat race of messy revenues (the pie ain’t big enough) it is the only way:

• Find your opportunity - who is it that you are and what do you offer (hint: it’s not qubits)?

• Define your TAM/SAM/SOM - actually write it down and execute on it

• Tell your story - be human and authentic

• Be realistic about your runway - running out of cash sucks

• Sales has changed - the founder led feedback loop

• Buying revenue - build/partner/buy

Unless you are bold!

Need for bold ideas - let’s think big

It’s no secret and by now you most likely have caught on to it - my personal favorite: be bold. Quantum tech is so beautiful, so utterly weird and scary, it deserves the best of humanity.

But business doesn’t work that way…

How do we reconcile these two ends of the spectrum?

• A bold startup able to tell a unique and exciting story that will attract large resources

• Bold countries/regions with a vision

• A left field mid sized company with nothing to lose (hello German Mittelstand)

• Tony Stark - what do you mean he is not real?

Joking aside, an educated guess and smart bet is what historically moved humanity forward the most - we should put boldness back on the table.

It’s that simple.

Young - how to generate new ideas

Before we conclude, a little side note on creativity and tenacity. One of my favorite books is by JW Young and titled “A technique for producing ideas”. I find it inspiring in the sense that so many in our ecosystem are intensely focused on iterating the existing and lose sight of the new. Maybe there is an opportunity to widen our horizons, here is how Young suggests we go about it:

• Step 1: gather new material. This includes specific material (related to the product or task) and general material (fascination with a wide range of concepts).

• Step 2: work over the materials in your mind. Mentally “chew” your new material by looking at the facts from different angles and experimenting with fitting ideas together.

• Step 3: put the problem completely out of your mind and go do something else that excites you and energizes you.

• Step 4: your idea will come back to you with a flash of insight, only after you have stopped straining.

• Step 5: shape and develop your idea into practical usefulness. Put your idea out into the world, submit it to criticism, and adapt it as needed.

On getting intimate knowledge of a product: most people stop too soon. If the surface differences are not striking, we assume that there are no differences. But if we go deeply enough, or far enough, we nearly always find that between every product and some consumers there is an individuality of relationship which may lead to an idea.

The greatest way to develop general knowledge on a subject is to get genuinely interested in something. Living in a curious way and becoming fascinated with things is a fantastic way to live and it will ensure you never run out of ideas.

The more general knowledge you have, the more opportunity you have for creating new relationships and connections between ideas.

Conclusion

The answer to our questions comes down to a simple conundrum - what do you want to bet on?

Be the best in a crowded field? Crack the enterprise? Be bold?

No matter your choice, there is a strategic and tactical level at which we need to better execute.

Strategy

• For quantum to succeed, we need commercial (not R&D) enterprise use cases. All other addressable markets are too small or not scalable

• Companies need to define clear and differentiated strategies rather than being also runs. Pick your differentiation - the 4 corners of the quantum universe are starting to clearly emerge

• A narrow focus is the most undervalued virtue

Tactics

• Subject Matter Expertise - most lack it, use cases depend on it

• Branding - customers buy stories and emotions, even in quantum

• Protect your runway, this stuff takes time

Execution

• To find long-term enterprise value strategic and tactical execution is required

• Founder leaders - if you have a PR agency and a Head of Biz Dev that used to work for Oracle then you’re probably failing

• A build/partner/buy strategy - you should have an M&A partner

However, this won’t be enough, for the ecosystem at large, to answer the use case question - the pie, at least as we know it today, simply ain’t big enough.

Bold ideas - and yes, this means taking a big business risk - is what we need most on the road to enterprise use cases. Why would you work on one of humanity’s biggest technological leaps to date and think small! Just to make a few million?

At the end of the day, the answer to use cases in quantum is simple. The missing ingredient is you. So make sure you live curiously and go far enough.

#QuantumIsComing

This is my personal newsletter, all opinions are mine and do not represent GQI, The Quantum Computing Report and other affiliated entities.

Access full report

The strategic algorithms playing field

Quantum computers are set to be much slower than conventional computers when measured on just their clock speed. The real advantage they offer comes from the unique quantum algorithms they promise to run. Much hype has surrounded the claims and expectations for what such algorithms can achieve. 

Some quantum algorithms offer remarkable (exponential) speedups, others more modest (quadratic) speedups. Some are heuristics whose benefits must be evaluated by trial and error.

It is not possible to divorce algorithms from the specs of the hardware on which they are intended to run. Academics have been developing quantum algorithms for 30 years. Early quantum hardware varied from non-existent to very poor. However, it was known that beyond a certain fidelity threshold gate-model architectures could in principle use quantum error correction to turn noisy physical qubits into better logical qubits.  It was therefore natural for algorithm theorists to focus on the abstraction of fault tolerant quantum computation (FTQC). 

The most famous gate-model quantum primitives all date from this era: the quantum fourier transform, (QFT) used, for example, in Shor’s algorithm for factoring, quantum phase estimation (QPE) used, for example, in the HHL algorithm for linear algebra and in quantum simulation; amplitude amplification (AA) used, for example, in Grover’s algorithm for unstructured search and discrete time quantum walks for Monte Carlo. 

QFT and QPE typically offer an exponential advantage though sometimes with important caveats. AE typically offers a quadratic advantage, also typically with caveats. These primitives typically require implementation on the high-depth quantum circuits implicitly provided by FTQC.

More recently it has been shown that all of these primitives can be understood as arising from one unified framework, a grand unified quantum primitive - the quantum singular value transformation (QSVT).

When physical devices improved to the point that they were able to demonstrate they had some ‘beyond classical’ capabilities, a new focus naturally developed: what might we be able to do directly with these noisy intermediate scale quantum (NISQ) devices?

For gate-model approaches limited fidelities mean that high-depth quantum circuits are not feasible. Variational quantum algorithms (VQAs) have emerged as the most promising body of techniques aimed at NISQ devices, combining low-depth quantum circuits with classical processing in an iterative loop. 

Quantum annealing (QA) can be seen as a NISQ era implementation of adiabatic quantum computing, an alternative to gate-model computation.

These techniques are heuristics. In contrast to the full scale techniques described above, we have no guarantee of their accuracy, performance or the speedup they may offer.

As developer roadmaps now also increasingly project forward to the introduction of fault tolerant techniques, it is increasingly clear that early FTQC devices still will not offer the specs to run all full-scale FTQC algorithms. A focus on algorithms suitable for this new middle ground is an increasingly important focus.

Access to the report

We offer a number of options to access the report:

1. Long summary for QCR members CLICK HERE

2. Purchase the report CLICK HERE

This report is a Must Read for providers, users, investors or anyone interested in quantum computing and what’s in store for it in the future.

The report totals 51 pages in length and covers the quantum algorithm landscape in greater depth than any other source. Our analysis is product and technically driven, often with much scientific detail, while also offering a good overview for the quantum novice on major approaches and differentiations.

All the major vendors and algorithm types are discussed in detail including but not limited to: QunaSys | QC Ware | IBM | Quantum South | Kipu | Multiverse Computing | BEIT | Xanadu | Google | NTT | Quantinuum | Quantum Dice | Phasecraft | D-Wave | PsiQuantum | Zapata Computing | Pasqal

If you decide to purchase the report you can pay via PayPal or credit/bank card by selecting the appropriate option on the PayPal form. You can do this at the GQI website at this link CLICK HERE

The Table of Contents is shown below.

Access full report

The strategic hardware playing field

As the quantum computing sector comes off the peak of its first hype cycle, questions on progress are inevitably being asked. This outlook asks specifically how the hardware itself is stepping up to the challenges it faces. To understand this, we need to appreciate the interplay between the performance specs that current hardware is able to achieve, and those required to deliver against different scenarios that players are targeting.

- Advertising -

Dear Colleagues,

Take on 2023 with IQT THE HAGUE offering fresh perspectives on the future of quantum communications and security. Also, build your network of like-minded professionals over three days at the stunning Louwman Museum in The Hague.

The Quantum Internet Alliance (QIA), Quantum Delta and QuTech have combined with Inside Quantum Technology to carefully craft dozens of seminars to help you and your organization explore and gain an understanding of the future of quantum communications and quantum cybersecurity.

Our event is in-person and carefully designed to bring you everything your organization needs, whether its technology knowledge, business partners or a blueprint to export quantum communications and security. Get countless hours of knowledge building as well as networking with like minded colleagues.

Early Bird registration are available. Contact info@3drholdings.com for information relating to exhibits and sponsorships.

And thanks to Toshiba for being the overall sponsor of day one seminars!

Finally, reserve hotel rooms now to take advantage of generous room rates.

We hope to see you in The Hague.

Sincerely,
The 3DR Holdings Event Team in association with QuTech, Quantum Delta and QIA

Brought to you by:

The NISQ era

Some look for early noisy intermediate scale quantum (NISQ) devices to step-up and support commercially useful applications in the next 2-5 years. 

Opinions differ on requirements. Some believe quantum annealing is already starting to do this. GQI believe gate-model protagonists are ideally looking for: 

• 100-200+ physical qubits

• 99.99%+ fidelities, especially 2Q gate fidelity

• High qubit connectivity

Probably this would be delivered in a single module, so interconnects may not be an issue.

It’s important to realize that there is no guarantee that quantum algorithms can deliver on their part of this bargain. Classical algorithms are a fierce competitor.  Niche applications certainly look possible but broad quantum adoption looks much less likely without a further breakthrough.

A low depth algorithm breakthrough could still yield broad NISQ quantum advantage. However without further progress on algorithms the alternative could be a hard quantum winter. Making hardware developers financial plans robust to both these scenarios is a challenge.

Early FTQC

Others focus on the potential that will be realized by larger machines to deliver fault tolerant quantum computation (FTQC). Early machines will still be limited.

Much current discussion assumes a ‘standard model’ of how this will be achieved: 

• 99.9%+ fidelities, especially 2Q gate fidelities

• Beyond a certain module size, interconnects are essential for scaling

• Sufficiently fast classical control logic

• The 2D surface code (or similar) used to encode physical qubits into logical qubits

With standard error correction techniques overheads are very high. A system with 1 million physical qubits might offer only 200-300 truly high performance logical qubits, though better fidelities or better connectivity could radically improve this. 

If we believe that several of today’s vendors can deliver on their announced roadmaps we will see broad early FTQC in 5-10 years. Many don’t see things playing out so smoothly. Scaling up is hard and some believe only their approach has what it takes to deliver eye of the needle FTQC.

The longer term  

The longer term landscape will be shaped by developments that are even more uncertain. 

• Goliath FTQC – the direct future path would simply be brute force scaling of  current hardware architectures. In the end we want 10,000+ logical qubits. Large device footprints could lead to truly immense machines, putting pressure on affordability.

• Distributed FTQC –  the emergence of quantum enabled networks provides new niche opportunities. In the end, an entanglement based quantum internet could potentially allow a literal exponential multiplication of quantum resources.

• Turbo FTQC – to allow a fuller range of quantum speedups to become viable we would ideally like a new architecture with faster logical clock speeds, low overheads and capabilities such as a hardware efficient implementation of QRAM. No one is yet building such an architecture, but it is reasonable to believe that someday someone will.

FQQC opportunities

Not all applications require lots of qubits. ‘Few qubit’ quantum computing (FQQC) devices may find a variety of use, particularly in network related applications.

Cryptographic applications may provide an early opportunity in quantum enabled networks. Some see helping to join up a future entanglement based quantum internet as the biggest opportunity of all.  Not all technology platforms will turn out to be suited to scale-up for large scale computational tasks. FQQC might be an excellent plan B.

For players with the right technology, and the strategy to finance the journey, there is no reason why NISQ, FTQC and FQQC opportunities cannot be joined up within one overall roadmap.

Jerry Chow (IBM Fellow) comments “The true opportunity is that there is one model of quantum computing: quantum circuits. We will make stepwise advances that allow us to execute quantum circuits more accurately. This will involve a mix of error suppression, error mitigation, and eventually error correction. Different hardware will be able to leverage these various techniques in different ways. Being optimistic about near term applications doesn’t preclude a desire to move on to FTQC. But current theoretical approaches to FTQC are speculative. We need to develop more hardware-aware higher efficiency error correction codes.”

Key challenges

The reality is that today’s devices are not yet anywhere near as good as we need them to be: the smaller devices are not large enough to move beyond the reach of classical simulation; the larger devices are not able to sustain the quality we need. The potential roadblocks we face in scaling up current designs vary by qubit platform, but are significant.

Access to the report

We offer a number of options to access the report:

1. Long summary for QCR members CLICK HERE

2. Purchase the report CLICK HERE

This report is a Must Read for providers, users, investors or anyone interested in quantum computing and what’s in store for it in the future.

The report totals 59 pages in length and covers the quantum hardware landscape in greater depth than any other source. Our analysis is product and technically driven, often with much scientific detail, while also offering a good overview for the quantum novice on major approaches and differentiations.

All the major vendors and QC architectures are discussed in detail including but not limited to: | Alibaba | Alice & Bob | AQT | Archer Materials | Atom Computing | AWS | Bleximo | C12 | ColdQuanta | D-Wave | Diraq | Duality Quantum Photonics | EeroQ | EleQtron | Entangled Networks | Fujitsu | Google | Hitachi | IBM | Infleqtion | Intel | IonQ | IQM | Jiuzhang Quantum | Keysight Technologies | M Squared | Microsoft | Nu Quantum | OQC | ORCA Computing | OriginQ | Oxford Ionics | Pasqal | Photonic Inc. | PsiQuantum | Qblox | QMICS | QphoX | Quandela | Quantinuum | Quantum Brilliance | Quantum Machines | Quantum Motion | QUDORA | QuEra Computing | QuiX | QuTech | Rigetti | Riverlane | SEEQC | Siquance | SpinQ | SQC | Toshiba | TuringQ | Universal Quantum | USTC | Xanada | Zurich Instruments

If you decide to purchase the report you can pay via PayPal or credit/bank card by selecting the appropriate option on the PayPal form. You can do this at the GQI website at this link CLICK HERE

The Table of Contents is shown below.

Take the survey!

We are grateful to be working with SandboxAQ, helping them define the field of A.I. for Quantum Tech.

Combining AI with Quantum Technologies is emerging as a vital application of these advanced technologies,  empowering us to envision business data and external stimuli in ways we never could contemplate before.
 
And therein you can play a helpful role. If making a meaningful contribution to define the field of AQ is interesting to you, then consider taking this three-minute survey. 

Take the survey!

Note all submissions are anonymous and your data will not be shared externally. Of course, all participants will receive a copy of the results if requested.

One of those engagements was a super fun podcast recording for #ApplicationParanoia #AppParnoia by Colin Bell, Rob Cuddy and Kris Duer from HCL Software where we talked about all things quantum tech - we enjoyed recording it, hopefully you will enjoy listening to it.

Listen here!

We are also grateful to be working with SandboxAQ, helping them define the field of A.I. for Quantum Tech.

Combining AI with Quantum Technologies is emerging as a vital application of these advanced technologies,  empowering us to envision business data and external stimuli in ways we never could contemplate before.
 
And therein you can play a helpful role. If making a meaningful contribution to define the field of AQ is interesting to you, then consider taking this three-minute survey. 

Take the survey!

Note all submissions are anonymous and your data will not be shared externally. Of course, all participants will receive a copy of the results if requested. 

Quantum computing has entered the commercial era

This milestone is the result of a number of factors that range from technical progress to abundant financial resources. QC is now facing a whole new set of opportunities while emerging in the enterprise.

Writing this report would have been impossible as recently as two years ago, when total revenues in 2020 were estimated to be less than $250M and ~5% of came from commercial sources.

For 2022 we predict $750M in revenue for the sector. More than 20% of this revenue is expected to come from commercial customers, reflecting an increase from roughly $12.5M to over $150M attributed to business-oriented use cases and clients, rather than R&D partnerships. The commercialization of QC is truly a sea change.

QC on the Maturity Curve

Quantum computing is a scientific and engineering marvel. It was just 25 years ago that the first-ever attempt to build a device that might deliver a new computational paradigm was made. Since that time, an entire global ecosystem of vendors and startups has emerged with the stated goal of bringing quantum computing to market.

The speed at which quantum computing has developed is breathtaking. Based on a novel way of explaining how our world works, quantum physics has emerged as the widely accepted and deeply researched science underpinning this technological revolution.

Researchers and engineers quickly grasped the potential of using this science for a wide array of applications, including a new computational paradigm. Within 25 years, an entire industry was born and went from a bulky experiment to a new architecture that, at the writing of this report, is redefining what is possible with classical supercomputers.

Whereas at the beginning of 2020 two main architectures were commercially available (superconducting annealing QCs and gate-model superconducting QCs), today customers can choose from five available modalities by vendors from seven different countries.

When evaluated on computational performance and commercial progress, D-Wave is a leader in the industry, with 68% of its QCaaS (quantum computing as a service) revenue coming from commercial customers in 2021.

As of today, 63 of its customers are commercial in nature, which is the largest contingent of business users in the ecosystem.

With the rapid scientific and engineering rise of quantum computers, we are now in a good place to understand how to commercialize QC and help companies use it to drive business impact. The commercial impact can already be felt today, and the leaders in this new industry are starting to emerge.

In this report we propose a number of new frameworks to better assess and benchmark progress in the field.

Notably, we define specific target audience for the commercialization of quantum computing with all of their different requirements and goals.

We publish a new framework introducing the concept of "quantum business advantage."

Lastly, we share new data and predictions on the numbers of the commercial quantum computing market.

The numbers are clear, the commercial market is picking up steam and depth but from a very small space and still with unclear use cases. But, some very specific areas of near-term potential. You can access the report in the client portal directly.

Read the report here.

If you are not reading the Quantum Computing Report then you don’t know what is happening in quantum tech.

Know what's happening!

The year end brings a lot of great quantum tech events, a new one on the scene that we are excited about is:

I will be on stage with Tony Uttley from Quantinuum, Christopher Savoie from Zapata Computing and Scott Farris from ColdQuanta - and look forward to seeing you in DC.

I hope you, too, have something to be grateful for this week and get to celebrate the start of the holiday season.

#QuantumIsComing

Btw, he is taking a trip to Paris and is looking for introductions to the local quantum tech community, feel free to reach out to him if you can help.

The data guy I am and I often get asked to predict the demand for consumers, private end users, for Quantum Computing and find myself responding with things like “in my opinion this will never happen” or “QC is not the iPhone”.

I am pontificating. Zero data. All opinion. 😟

Hence, I will try to explore this question in good old data driven fashion below; here is a look at the consumer market for quantum computing and my predictions.

I will be speaking at the Quantum World Congress in Washington, DC late November and looking forward to seeing all of you in person REGISTER HERE

What is consumer tech?

Consumer technology refers to any form of technology that is intended for use by consumers in the general public, as opposed to technology created for governmental, military or commercial use. Consumer tech comes in a variety of different forms and offers a wide range of technological capabilities, encompassing many of the most commonly seen items that people utilize daily.

By this strict definition Quantum Computing, of course, is not a consumer technology and never will be as it is very much being created for commercial and federal use, even out of government labs as strong drivers of innovation in the field.

That said, there still might be specific audiences that will use QC for their personal goals and benefits, potentially paying themselves, rather than through an employer, agency or institute - this, in my opinion, is what we should talk about when we refer to a consumer market in QC.

As such, I define a QC consumer as someone who:

• Does not use QC as part of a formal corporate, federal or R&D project

• Covers their QC expenses personally or through a line budget rather than a project or strategic budget

• With the goal to learn and explore quantum, and, hopefully, get started on a longer journey

Also, I specifically exclude certain audiences that others might consider as being part of the consumer market, for example larger corporations that start to explore quantum, who, in the end, will most certainly migrate to a hardware vendor.

My ultimate goal here, is to understand if there is a market for third party QC vendors and platforms, to offer QaaS, which certain demographics might prefer over working directly with a leading QC hardware vendor, startup or cloud.

I exclude these “innovation teams” from my hypothesis for a few reasons:

• To be successful with QC commercially, I strongly believe that you need in-house quantum math, algorithm and use case capabilities. Quantum is too complex and too strategic to outsource this in the long-term

• To build these you need a strong partner. Strong, in the context of quantum computing, truly means world leading. We all read about the quantum workforce challenges and if you want to build those internal capabilities you require a partner that has the resources and skills to do so with you. And very few do.

• Lastly, I believe that for commercial success you will need a strong partnership with a leading hardware vendor, as to guarantee access to the latest innovation and a decent spot in their computational queue that allows you to be successful within your requirements

To sum up my hypothesis

1. QC is not a consumer technology

2. There will be “private” end-user market in QC

3. Those looking to apply QC commercially will, ultimately, work with a leading HW vendor

That said, which are these audiences that might want a more user-friendly way to get started with QC?

1. Academic users. Specifically, academic users that are not PIs and are looking to gain experience with QC. As well as students, researchers and others from smaller academic institutions that have less access to grant opportunities

2. Software developers. Other new technologies, such as A.I. or blockchain, have huge ecosystems of independent software developers. I do not see this at scale in quantum, for the reasons expressed above. However, there will be a group of senior and highly qualified software engineers looking to train their quantum skills

3. The Quantum Curious. The curious, the physics students, the ambitious innovation folks - there is a whole population out there that wants to learn about QC and will invest their personal time in doing so

4. SMEs. Smaller enterprises might not have the initial resources or infrastructure to kick-off a formal project and might explore QC “privately” at the executive level before investing into it, or not

5. Federal users. Same at the federal level, where we see a lot of senior officials interested in the topic without their agencies having a formal program yet. Many of these will personally invest into their quantum learning experience

Each of these market segments will have their own

• Price point

• Buying behavior

• Needs and goals

Based on indicators from other new technologies, these might look something like this.

For third-party vendors looking to enter this market this means that it might be challenging to build one platform for all, since these 5 market segments end up having fairly distinct behaviors and needs. But, maybe, that is the opportunity as well.

Market sizing

Based on the above target audience and segmentation, we estimate the total addressable market through a bottoms up approach with assumptions around total global populations for each segment.

In essence, we identified the top 14 markets where we are likely to see early adoption amongst those segments. We then assumed a baseline of available users for each. We increased those numbers by 20% for the medium and 50% for the high scenario. We applied a price point that is about 50% above similar segments for A.I. based on our research.

This yields a total addressable market of $600M to $9.6B with a median market size around $4.5B.

We believe our assumptions to be conservative and are happy to discuss our model with interested parties to further refine it.

Our OneQuantum West Coast chapter has a new president, please welcome Bernd.

Conclusions

Is there a consumer market for Quantum Computing? Yes, absolutely!

Personally, I am shocked at how potentially big it is, though fragmented and not easy to capture for potential platform-type vendors.

This goes to show how irrelevant any opinion is, and even though no model is perfect, when you run the numbers you will be surprised by what you might discover.

The above market is only going to grow over the next decade or two as quantum matures and becomes more robust, with proven use cases and applications. A fantastic opportunity for a wise entrepreneur to build, test and improve.

I can’t wait to see who she will be.

#QuantumIsComing

Below is my response to her - please be sure to also read her own article on it, which will include comments by many other industry stakeholders.

Starting off, I do not yet feel the fear in the air. Everybody knows about the terrible and brutal war against the Ukraine, and the impact it has on our already stretched supply chain. You’d have to be living behind a rock not to have seen the beating the public markets took across all asset classes from currencies to equity, bonds and crypto - a great time to move to Miami, a lot of unexpected housing vacancies - and, of course, record inflation rates.

Yet, nobody seems to panic. Unless you work on Wall Street.

“You can look but you won’t find a stretch of futility as pervasive as the one that is landing on Wall Street.

Even in the long and storied history of market meltdowns, the breadth of losses is without equal, based on data that goes back to the Great Depression.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-17/in-prevalence-of-selling-this-is-a-market-rout-without-equal

We are entering a historic downturn.

And while quantum tech won’t be spared, I am confident that it will remain relatively sheltered.

The driving factor in quantum tech is the tension between maturity curve vs market forces more so than micro- or macro economic trends. While every sector and venture needs to adhere to good business hygiene, quantum tech is isolated from the environment by its very own, spooky nature.

Quantum Tech is still a very young industry, there is as much science as engineering that needs to be done in order for users to get any real value out of this paradigm shifting technology. And while market forces - driven by investors and stakeholders in QT - drive hype and expectations, reality is that we are too early to be measured by that yardstick. I am a huge proponent of commercialization and solution selling, and that is my goal for QT, the point we are at in the current development, though, is still very much dominated by scientific development and even research.

Thus, while there undoubtedly will be financial pressure on every vendor and startup in QT, I do not expect us to see a fall out due to the current externalities.

The Quantum Winter - as analyzed a few weeks ago - is not (yet?) coming. At least not because of the broader context.

Weekly Quantum World Detangled by André M. König

Quantum Winter - or is there a better question?

I often get asked about ‘Quantum Winter’ and as someone who escaped the Northeast for Miami Beach 4 years ago that gives me chills in more than one way. Y2Q - a quick analysis Before we talk about chilly temperatures, let’s take a look at another emerging doomsday label that is making the rounds…

Read more

4 years ago · 46 likes · André M. König

QT vendors and startups are flush with recent cash - many of the leading startups have recently raised A, B or even C rounds and, while their burn is significant, are adequately resourced for 2 to 3 years on average. 

Additionally, government funded programs typically take a longer time horizon and there is no serious QT firm out there that does not have at least some public research funding. These grants might not be enough to scale a venture, but they are enough to keep the dream alive - as Whurley said in a recent tweet put it in a box and focus on survival.

A correction is possible and healthy but it will affect only those who have been too late to the party or too reckless to plan ahead, which, to my understanding, is not the case for anyone within the leading 50 or so large OEMs and startups within our space.

Additionally, QT is a strategic priority. Sure, A.I., digital, automation and maybe even blockchain are important. Even transformative in certain cases. Yet, none of these technologies holds the same value redistribution potential as quantum tech. And while QT POCs are most certainly at an earlier stage than other projects, I do not see any serious user cutting them as part of the predicted downturn.

And let's not forget that quantum tech is a national priority of the highest order for the major markets in North America, Europe, parts of Asia, Israel and other regions.

The combination of these factors should not make anyone feel safe, in the slightest. Cash will get expensive, resources scarce, capital slow and projects will be scrutinized more intensely. Execution will be key. For those Quantum Tech vendors and startups that will deliver both on the scientific & product roadmap, as well as the solution & enterprise aspect of it, I see the next 2 years as an opportunity to truly prove the potential of the technology and position themselves for true scaling. 

Pressure will come from what entrepreneurs know as the "valley of death" and technologists as the "peak of delusion". Quantum, and this is a good thing, is rapidly maturing. However, not all products and companies will survive. This is a consequence of lack of execution, building for the sake of the technology or failing to listen to customers and the market more so than the environment.  

The QT market is poised for consolidation, full stack providers will emerge as winners and capital will flow to those projects promising the best approach to this yet unsolved puzzle. 

Strategic investments will start to take a large share of the investment dollars. Money that is less sensitive to market conditions and more patient in nature.

And I expect a big SPAC squeeze. The process of completing a SPAC is becoming significantly more onerous, public perceptions are deteriorating and the capital behind it tends to be more price sensitive - potentially preferring other asset classes during a recession. 

That said, no startup gets around the fact that cash is always rare and scaling never easy. Within Quantum Tech, very few ventures have reached the point of inflection where incoming proceeds support the business rather than the existing balance sheet. 

Also, no vendor can disguise the need for enterprise grade solutions with spooky claims - selling to commercial clients requires technological maturity as much as financial upside, strong integration with existing infrastructure and the support of middle management. 

For the foreseeable future, these factors will drive the success of quantum tech vendors much more significantly than the current geopolitical and macroeconomic environment. 

Uncertainty is a certainty - thank you Sequoia - QT ventures need to focus on the fundamentals rather than externalities.

#QuantumIsComing

We launched a number of new analyst reports, most notably:

Weekly Quantum World Detangled by André M. König

Y2Q - the quantum threat to our data & communications

Together with Quantropi we are excited to be able to share a free copy of our new report ”Y2Q - the quantum threat to our data & communications”. The first public mentions of Y2Q emerged as early as 2016, especially in a noted article by Alex Hutchinson entitled “Hacking, Cryptography, and the Countdown to Quantum Computing” in the New Yorker…

Read more

4 years ago · 9 likes · André M. König

If you would like to learn more about any of them please reach out directly.

Brian Siegelwax from our OneQuantum Philippines chapter won a honorary mention in the Classiq coding challenge - to learn more about it, as well as our local coding classes and events check out the Philippines newsletter.

Our Ghana chapter, led by XX, is running a free Python workshop that you don’t want to miss.

OneQuantum Ghana Newsletter

Introduction to Programming with Python Workshop

OneQuantum Ghana Chapter in collaboration with PY4CA is organizing a programming workshop for all interesetd to get started on Python. Please keep in mind the following: 1. Download Anaconda Distribution Platform for installation. If you already have Jupyter notebook, that is great…

Read more

4 years ago · 1 like · OneQuantum Ghana

The most recent edition of ‘The Quantum Analyst Roundtable’ looks at the commercialization of quantum computing and its maturity.

Check us out online or on YouTube - I promise it’s time well spent.

News & Updates

We share news and events in all of our amazing OneQuantum newsletters and I encourage you to check those out to stay up to date with the latest.

Personally, I am a big fan of Sergio Gago’s weekly news update (see below) and won’t even attempt to outdo him - go read Quantum Pirates 🏴‍☠️

Quantum Pirates

The Week in Quantum Computing - June 20th - Silicon Quantum, Huawei, Honeywell, EvolutionQ, Dwave and McKinsey

The Week in Quantum Computing. Brought to you by Sergio Gago (@piratecto). This week Sponsored by Artificial Brain and QCentroid…

Read more

4 years ago · Sergio Gago

If this free edition of our Quantum Tech newsletter has been forwarded to you, please subscribe so you won’t miss the next one.

Subscribe now

View the free report

The first public mentions of Y2Q emerged as early as 2016, especially in a noted article by Alex Hutchinson entitled “Hacking, Cryptography, and the Countdown to Quantum Computing” in the New Yorker.

As the author explains “The ‘Y2Q’ handle makes explicit the parallels between the quantum threat and the Y2K bug, which, at the turn of the millennium, was supposed to make the world’s computers think it was 1900 again, bringing civilization to a grinding halt. In the popular imagination, Y2K has become a punchline, a prophecy of doom unfulfilled, like the Maya calendar turned out to be in 2012.”

This also coincides with the first known estimation on the potential timeline of Y2Q by “Michele Mosca, a professor at the University of Waterloo’s Institute for Quantum Computing and the co-host of the workshop, pegged the odds of reaching Y2Q by 2026 at one in seven, rising to one in two by 2031.”

Six years later those estimates are surprisingly aligned with many of today’s expert opinions. If in only 9 short years there indeed is a 50% chance of a Y2Q like event occurring, any critical infrastructure provider, government facility, defense provider, financial services provider and even simple end-user should be in panic by now as enterprise implementation of a potential defense against it is a tall order in such a short time frame.

But, we aren’t.

Quantum Computers make this threat exponentially more pressing.

With its properties of superposition and entanglement, these new machines are maturing fast and, in theory, will be able to break our digital infrastructure much more easily, completely and in the near future.

While our modern infrastructure relies on the expertise of a few, hacking it, in a classical computing age is a big effort that we are well aware of, and somewhat prepared for.

The tug-of-war between experts and hackers is a perpetual game of always staying one step ahead of the other. To date, the ‘good guys” win more often than they lose, and we understand the steps it takes to improve our defenses, with technology that exists today. While in this classical computing world we will never be entirely safe, we also will never be entirely taken down.

You might say that is all fine and good but why stress - we have at least another 5 years, and probably more, to ‘invent’ and test proper defenses against such a malicious quantum computing attack.

And while that might be true, the challenge is one that Mosca, of above Y2Q prediction fame, coined into his well known law.

The upshot of his theory is simple: the time it might take for an attacker to mature the necessary quantum technology potentially is less than the time required to create the necessary defenses and then also put in place the necessary regulations and standard around it for safe roll-out within critical infrastructure - a multi-year process at best, leaving us with a potential blind-spot margin of up to several years.

The state of security 2022 report reveals a significant increase in cyber attacks. According to the report 65% of respondents say that they have seen an increase in attempted cyber attacks; nearly half of organizations say they have suffered a data breach over the past two years, an increase from 39% a year earlier.

79% of respondents say they've encountered ransomware attacks and 35% admit that one or more of those attacks led them to lose access to data and systems. 59% of respondents report that the business critical applications have suffered from unplanned outages related to cyber security incidents and 64% of security professionals have stated that it is challenging to keep up with new security requirements up from 49% a year earlier.

US officials increasingly warn about Russian cyber attacks in the wake of the Ukraine war. Deputy attorney general Lisa Monaco from the Department of Justice and the Cyber Security and Infrastructure Security Agency (CSISA) said that she is seeing Russian State actors scanning, probing, and looking for opportunities and weaknesses in our systems and critical infrastructure as well as businesses.

At the same time Chinese cyber attacks on NATO countries have increased 116% says a recent study by cyber security firm Checkpoint Research.

This is leading many large corporations and infrastructure providers to rethink their security posture.

JPMorgan Chase, for example, is making an impressive commitment to be ready for a post quantum security world. JP Morgan researchers are working on multiplexed QKD channels with ultra high bandwidth to secure data streams. They are testing the co-existence of new quantum channels with their classical infrastructure. And efforts are underway to put quantum safe networks in place that can carry data over distances of up to 100 km.

Google’s parent Alphabet has spun out a new company, Sandbox AQ, offering enterprises artificial intelligence and quantum computing software as a service.

The company is starting life with two major research objectives. The first is the creation of post-quantum cryptosystems and related privacy-enhancing technologies, in an attempt to keep data secure should quantum computing develop to the point of rendering today’s encryption techniques obsolete.

The second is the creation of a novel navigation system based on geophysical signals (such as local variations in the earth’s magnetic and gravitational fields) rather than satellites. Sandbox AQ suggests such a system could be useful for autonomous vehicles or in areas where access to global navigational satellite systems (GNSSs) is denied.

Data harvesting - the concept of collecting as much personal and commercial data as possible today and hacking it later when the necessary tools will be available - has also reached new heights.

Just a month ago it was discovered that Russian Internet company Yandex was harvesting Apple and Google app store users by the millions, sending all data straight to Russian servers.

Consider some of the episodes last year in which large quantities of personal data were stolen: 300 million customer and device records for users of a service that’s supposed to shield internet traffic from prying eyes; a 17.6-million-row database from a second organization, containing profiles of people who participated in its market research surveys; 59 million email addresses and other personal data lifted from a third company. These sorts of numbers barely raise an eyebrow these days; none of the incidents generated major press coverage.

It is estimated that 200M Americans have been harvested, 8B files stored and over 7M databases breached.

Get the full, free report with all the data, analysis and conclusions below

View the free report

I am excited to be hosting the first day, Tuesday June 14th, of the Quantum.Tech Boston summit.

And look forward to seeing many of you in person again, sign up here Quantum.Tech Boston.

We launched a number of new analysis, notably:

1. An updated dashboard on Investments in Quantum Tech

2. A new dashboard on the Quantum Tech ecosystem in Germany

3. A new overview of the global Quantum Computing ecosystem

If you would like to learn more about any of them please reach out directly.

The president of our Chile chapter, Raul Palacios, will be speaking at Quantum Latino next week

Join in person or online at Quantum Latino.

Our UK team, led by John Barnes, will be presenting and hosting at the Quantum Computing Summit London during the same week.

You can join here Quantum Computing Summit.

Africa is making big strides again with the Africa Day.

OneQuantum Africa Newsletter

Join OneQuantum Africa in celebrating African Union Day

OneQuantum Africa is excited to invite you to join the African continent in celebrating the African Union Day, under the theme 2022: The Year of Nutrition, Strengthening Resilience in Nutrition and Food Security on the African Continent: Strengthening Agro-Food Systems, Health and Social Protection Systems for the Acceleration of Human, Social and Econo…

Read more

4 years ago · 7 likes · OneQuantum, CEO

With an additional update from Ghana

OneQuantum Ghana Newsletter

OneQuantum Ghana updates, news, and more ...

Dear All, It is a great pleasure to reach out to you once again. Yes indeed community matters so you matter to us in building a strong and formidable community. This we hope to achieve through community building, mentorship, career developments, and through projects, the vision of…

Read more

4 years ago · 2 likes · OneQuantum Ghana

The most recent edition of ‘The Quantum Analyst Roundtable’ looks at the commercialization of quantum computing and its maturity.

Check us out online or on YouTube - I promise it’s time well spent.

News & Updates

We share news and events in all of our amazing OneQuantum newsletters and I encourage you to check those out to stay up to date with the latest.

Personally, I am a big fan of Sergio Gago’s weekly news update (see below) and won’t even attempt to outdo him - go read Quantum Pirates 🏴‍☠️

Quantum Pirates

The Week in Quantum Computing - May 30th - Q-Cat, QPhoton, Qlimate, Teleportation gets Real, so does error correction

The Week in Quantum Computing. Brought to you by Sergio Gago (@piratecto). This week Sponsored by Artificial Brain and QCentroid…

Read more

4 years ago · 1 like · Sergio Gago

If this free edition of our Quantum Tech newsletter has been forwarded to you, please subscribe so you won’t miss the next one.

Subscribe now

“How much easier it is to be critical than to be correct.” – Benjamin Disraeli – 19th Century Prime Minister of the UK

by David Shaw, Doug Finke, and André M. König

Scorpion Capital is an activist investor specializing in taking short positions in publicly traded stocks (and therefore stand to gain if the stock price moves down).  They recently took such a position in IonQ, a leading trapped ion quantum computing hardware company. IonQ listed on the NYSE in October 2021 in a SPAC assisted floatation. SPACs themselves have been controversial in some circles, where they are viewed as a way to avoid the usual scrutiny of a traditional IPO process.

Scorpion issued a scathing ‘short report’ aimed to move market sentiment against IonQ [1]. It’s important to recall that this style of research does not aim to present a balanced picture or even a structured analysis. It’s a scatter gun of bad things that might hurt the stock price. Some of these such as allegations of revenue irregularities are a matter specifically for the company, which has responded with its own press release [2].

However, some of the accusations could mislead debate around the wider quantum industry, and confuse investors more generally. We want to discuss those points here.

Useable Quantum Computing is Getting Steadily Closer

Academics have been talking about quantum computing for over forty years [3]. Richard Feynman first speculated about the idea in 1981 [4] and it was formalised by David Deutsch in 1985 [5]. Many would date progress on hardware to Alain Aspect’s famous experiments in 1982 [6].  Fidelities in the lab slowly improved, notably in the period 2008-2017 [7]–[10]. Activity has really intensified in the last three years with multiple demonstrations of ‘beyond classical’ calculations [11]–[13] (albeit on artificial problems), and tentative logical qubit demonstrations [14]–[16]. Multiple commercial players have defined roadmaps to build large scale machines [17].

For a recent review of progress see Quantum Outlook 2022.

Just Toys? Up to about 50-60Q we can mostly simulate these quantum devices on conventional computers. In that sense everything less is a ‘toy’ and the field often learns by working on ‘toy problems’. However, this is deadly serious R&D. The IonQ 11Q device deservedly debuted in Nature in 2019 [18]. In has continued to perform well in independent benchmarks [19].  But are any of the current generation of devices powerful enough for commercial computing applications? No. Scaling up is definitely required.

1+1=2? Such calculations are not a target use case for quantum computers (we don’t try to do math using wind tunnels). Even so, to a casual observer this might seem like this should be easy for any computing device. It turns out that this isn’t necessarily so when working with low-depth NISQ circuits and today’s gate sets [20]. Today’s hybrid algorithms aim to leave as much work as possible on classical hardware.

Even with envisaged intermediate scale quantum machines, early commercial applications are unproven. Many academics are sceptical (as we pay them to be), pointing to the difficulties facing known NISQ approaches. Some entrepreneurs are battening down for the long term. Others point to the tradition of constructive criticism driving innovation, and of commercial programmes making jumps that defied traditional labs. Recent progress in AI is arguably a good example of the latter [21].

A publicly quoted company, with the need to publish results quarter to quarter is a challenging environment in which to manage such an evolving narrative. Only the largest companies can traditionally combine such emerging activities with a public listing.

There are hold-out quantum skeptics, and no one has a roadmap where the physics is completely de-risked (though some are closer than others). However, for the long-term, mushrooming government support around the world reflects the clear majority expert opinion – this revolution is going to happen [22]–[24]. The only question is when.

New Technology Comes with Challenges. What Did You Expect?

Trapped ion technology is a technology quite alien to those used to the digital world.

Is it really a 32Q device? This may sound like a fairly straightforward question. But the nature of trapped ion technology blurs the answer. The qubits are individual ions, and you can load a variable number of ions into a typical trap. Some qubits may play an active role in the calculation, others supporting roles. A key question is how many qubits are available for use in the target algorithm?  IonQ’s next generation device does seem to have successfully operated with up to about 21Q in 2021 when it did well in independent benchmark tests [19] (though it clearly wasn’t performing at the aggressive targets IonQ had set of 32Q and 4M QV).

Trapped ion quantum computers confound our expectations in many ways. They are set to have very slow gate speeds compared to conventional computers. The point is that quantum computers enable us to use algorithms that complete in exponentially fewer processing steps. Raw trapped ion gate speeds are also set to be slow compared even to other proposed quantum platforms. Here a true comparison is much more subtle. What really matters is which platform can achieve the desired combination of scale, fidelity and speed, and how along the way it keeps down the overheads associated with error correction [25].

Outsourced fabrication – It’s not necessarily an issue if a trapped ion player outsources the fabrication of the trap and vacuum systems. A basic trap is now a relatively standard component. The really challenging part of the setup for a machine like this is the laser system and the control logic. None of today’s commercial players have yet fully recreated the sector-leading 2Q gate fidelities achieved with hero devices in the lab. Trap design and fabrication is set to become more of a focus as players innovate to meet other scaling challenges: miniaturisation and modularisation.

Miniaturization – A key challenge for conventional trapped ion setups is gate control. Established approaches use lasers to drive gates. This makes miniaturisation a real challenge. AQT already have a rack-based trapped ion system, but they use optical trapped ion qubits [26]. These require a less demanding setup. Other trapped ion players are typically using hyperfine trapped ion qubits, which in principle offer longer lifetimes and so access to higher fidelities. But working with the special laser setups required looks harder. True large-scale trapped ion systems probably require integrated photonic solutions (if you stick with lasers – some are working on ways to control ion traps with microwaves instead [10], [27]). Such systems are at an early stage as conventional photonic platforms don’t work well at the required wavelengths [28].  Innovative solutions are emerging.

Modularization – The other key scaling challenge is how to interconnect modules. Here trapped ion proponents often point to photonic interconnects. This is more of a challenge than sometimes portrayed. The currently best demonstrated fidelities and speeds don’t look good enough [29]. Again, innovative solutions are emerging.

Working with trapped ion based approaches certainly are a bet that some ‘better’ quantum technology isn’t able to get over the line first. IonQ has to innovate to meet the scaling challenge. A positive from the SPAC is that it has an impressive $500M pile of cash to help it drive this process. And they do have ideas. The real question is how quickly can any player move to solve multiple challenges at once: fidelity, miniaturisation and modularity?

You have to be very careful with roadmap promises. Analysts on public equities won’t be impressed when they change or are missed. Many R&D phase companies choose to stay private. Some choose to stay in stealth.

Quantum Company Culture is Set to be a Challenge

These aren’t old-time software startups where everyone can eat pizza and get things delivered by pulling an all-nighter. These are long term endeavours that have to combine skills from physicists, engineers and computer scientists just to make things work. In the real-world, marketing flair and commercial skills are set to be an equally important part of the mix. Combining such impenetrable disciplines amidst great uncertainty; mixing founding and new senior talent; retaining everyone around a realistic common company narrative (and realistic pay expectations) are going to be challenges many in the sector will face.

The pressures and dynamic of a SPAC process probably doesn’t help keep everyone on board. Senior hires bouncing in and out never looks good.

Academic founders face particular challenges – In many areas investors traditionally look for founders to fully commit to the new business. However, in the quantum space there are other considerations. Many anticipate that the talent pipeline will be a key issue. Keeping connections with a home institute helps shore-up a natural recruitment pool. It also gives insight into governmental programmes of support for the local quantum sectors. An additional pressure is going to be managing to get the best out of academic and corporate lab teams. Each should have contrasting strengths, but also likely different cultures.

(In preparing this piece, a striking feature has been former academic colleagues, but now commercial competitors of IonQ founders Chris Monroe and Jungsang Kim jumping to their defense as physicists. Disagreements naturally continue on whose hardware plans are best.)

Standing in the Wind

Existing and potential investors in quantum technology already face many distractions: an unsettled global economic environment; interest rates across developed economies are on an upward trajectory; inflation stalks the land.  But where are investors to invest? Investing in innovative ventures is a vital opportunity to bring uncorrelated exposure into a portfolio.

All companies have problems.  Sometimes it is an engineering program that has slipped its schedule, sometimes it is disagreements within management, sometimes it is unhappy customers, and many other things. A person can certainly look at a company and write a report that only discusses these issues. But a report that only focusses on the bad things, but does not mention any of the good things happening at a company does not give an accurate picture. It also would be incorrect to assume that any problem a company currently faces will be permanent. But again, pointing out that a problem might be temporary won’t be mentioned if your sole purpose is to write a report that drives down the price of the stock so you can make a profit.

We scorn the use of hype to create an unrealistic positive picture of how quickly quantum can add value. We equally scorn the use of scatter gun defamation (anti-hype) to paint an equally unrealistic negative picture. Neither benefits the industry or society in general. Both are traps for investors.

Quantum computing is at the very early stages of development and the ultimate proof of whether a company is good or not will be determined by whether a company can deliver on its roadmap and be competitive.

At this stage no one can say for sure which of the companies working in quantum can achieve this. The best that can be done is to bring in a well-qualified team that understands the technology, the market value chain, and real-world company cultures to perform careful due diligence. We don’t think a hedge fund that doesn’t have people knowledgeable about the technology, and has a motivation to be biased, fits this description.

Many think that SPAC mania in the financial markets is anyway coming to an end (and such vehicles will likely be more thoroughly regulated) [30]. But businesses should think not just about the route to flotation, SPAC or IPO, but also what milestones they need to hit to be ready for life on the public market. Venture investors will expect a plan that allows the business to move on at some point.

Quantum computing is engaged in a long marathon that will take many years to play out.  The quantum technology sector overall presents an even wider landscape of opportunities. Business adopters should avoid immediate judgements, but engage with companies that can execute and bring to market competitive products that provide commercial value. Governments should encourage the creative destruction of the innovative process. Investors should weigh the best advice they can find, and make their choices. And IonQ needs to demonstrate that Scorpion Capital’s criticism was indeed nothing but aggressive financial posturing.

References

[1]          ‘Scorpion Capital | Activist short selling focused on publicly traded frauds and promotes’, Scorpion Capital. https://scorpioncapital.com (accessed May 07, 2022).

[2]          ‘IonQ Reiterates Unwavering Commitment to Building the Quantum Future’, May 04, 2022. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220504006319/en/IonQ-Reiterates-Unwavering-Commitment-to-Building-the-Quantum-Future (accessed May 07, 2022).

[3]          J. Preskill, ‘Quantum computing 40 years later’, arXiv:2106.10522 [quant-ph], Jun. 2021, Accessed: May 07, 2022. [Online]. Available: http://arxiv.org/abs/2106.10522

[4]          R. P. Feynman, ‘Simulating physics with computers’, Int J Theor Phys, vol. 21, no. 6, pp. 467–488, Jun. 1982, doi: 10.1007/BF02650179.

[5]          ‘Quantum theory, the Church–Turing principle and the universal quantum computer | Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. A. Mathematical and Physical Sciences’. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.1985.0070 (accessed May 07, 2022).

[6]          A. Aspect, P. Grangier, and G. Roger, ‘Experimental Realization of Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Bohm Gedankenexperiment: A New Violation of Bell’s Inequalities’, Phys. Rev. Lett., vol. 49, no. 2, pp. 91–94, Jul. 1982, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.49.91.

[7]          J. Benhelm, G. Kirchmair, C. F. Roos, and R. Blatt, ‘Towards fault-tolerant quantum computing with trapped ions’, Nature Phys, vol. 4, no. 6, pp. 463–466, Jun. 2008, doi: 10.1038/nphys961.

[8]          R. Barends et al., ‘Superconducting quantum circuits at the surface code threshold for fault tolerance’, Nature, vol. 508, no. 7497, Art. no. 7497, Apr. 2014, doi: 10.1038/nature13171.

[9]          J. P. Gaebler et al., ‘High-Fidelity Universal Gate Set for $^9$Be$^+$ Ion Qubits’, Phys. Rev. Lett., vol. 117, no. 6, p. 060505, Aug. 2016, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.117.060505.

[10]        T. P. Harty, M. A. Sepiol, D. T. C. Allcock, C. J. Ballance, J. E. Tarlton, and D. M. Lucas, ‘High-fidelity trapped-ion quantum logic using near-field microwaves’, Phys. Rev. Lett., vol. 117, no. 14, p. 140501, Sep. 2016, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.117.140501.

[11]        F. Arute et al., ‘Quantum supremacy using a programmable superconducting processor’, Nature, vol. 574, no. 7779, Art. no. 7779, Oct. 2019, doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1666-5.

[12]        H.-S. Zhong et al., ‘Phase-Programmable Gaussian Boson Sampling Using Stimulated Squeezed Light’, Phys. Rev. Lett., vol. 127, no. 18, p. 180502, Oct. 2021, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.127.180502.

[13]        Y. Wu et al., ‘Strong quantum computational advantage using a superconducting quantum processor’, arXiv:2106.14734 [quant-ph], Jun. 2021, Accessed: Aug. 02, 2021. [Online]. Available: http://arxiv.org/abs/2106.14734

[14]        L. Egan et al., ‘Fault-tolerant control of an error-corrected qubit’, Nature, pp. 1–6, Oct. 2021, doi: 10.1038/s41586-021-03928-y.

[15]        C. Ryan-Anderson et al., ‘Realization of real-time fault-tolerant quantum error correction’, arXiv:2107.07505 [quant-ph], Jul. 2021, Accessed: Oct. 09, 2021. [Online]. Available: http://arxiv.org/abs/2107.07505

[16]        L. Postler et al., ‘Demonstration of fault-tolerant universal quantum gate operations’, arXiv:2111.12654 [quant-ph], Nov. 2021, Accessed: Dec. 02, 2021. [Online]. Available: http://arxiv.org/abs/2111.12654

[17]        ‘Quantum Hardware Outlook 2022’, Fact Based Insight, Dec. 13, 2021. https://www.factbasedinsight.com/quantum-hardware-outlook-2022/ (accessed Feb. 02, 2022).

[18]        K. Wright et al., ‘Benchmarking an 11-qubit quantum computer’, Nature Communications, vol. 10, no. 1, Art. no. 1, Nov. 2019, doi: 10.1038/s41467-019-13534-2.

[19]        T. Lubinski et al., ‘Application-Oriented Performance Benchmarks for Quantum Computing’, arXiv:2110.03137 [quant-ph], Oct. 2021, Accessed: Nov. 01, 2021. [Online]. Available: http://arxiv.org/abs/2110.03137

[20]        agaitaarino, ‘How do I add 1+1 using a quantum computer?’, Quantum Computing Stack Exchange, Dec. 23, 2018. https://quantumcomputing.stackexchange.com/q/1654 (accessed May 05, 2022).

[21]        J. M. Thornton, R. A. Laskowski, and N. Borkakoti, ‘AlphaFold heralds a data-driven revolution in biology and medicine’, Nat Med, vol. 27, no. 10, pp. 1666–1669, Oct. 2021, doi: 10.1038/s41591-021-01533-0.

[22]        M. G. Raymer and C. Monroe, ‘The US National Quantum Initiative’, Quantum Sci. Technol., vol. 4, no. 2, p. 020504, Feb. 2019, doi: 10.1088/2058-9565/ab0441.

[23]        T. Skordas and J. Mlynek, ‘The Quantum Technologies Flagship: the story so far, and the quantum future ahead’, Shaping Europe’s digital future – European Commission, Oct. 16, 2020. https://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/en/blogposts/quantum-technologies-flagship-story-so-far-and-quantum-future-ahead (accessed Dec. 20, 2020).

[24]        S. Mallapaty, ‘China’s five-year plan focuses on scientific self-reliance’, Nature, vol. 591, no. 7850, pp. 353–354, Mar. 2021, doi: 10.1038/d41586-021-00638-3.

[25]        M. Webber, V. Elfving, S. Weidt, and W. K. Hensinger, ‘The Impact of Hardware Specifications on Reaching Quantum Advantage in the Fault Tolerant Regime’, arXiv:2108.12371 [quant-ph], Sep. 2021, Accessed: Sep. 30, 2021. [Online]. Available: http://arxiv.org/abs/2108.12371

[26]        I. Pogorelov et al., ‘A compact ion-trap quantum computing demonstrator’, PRX Quantum, vol. 2, no. 2, p. 020343, Jun. 2021, doi: 10.1103/PRXQuantum.2.020343.

[27]        B. Lekitsch et al., ‘Blueprint for a microwave trapped ion quantum computer’, Science Advances, vol. 3, no. 2, p. e1601540, Feb. 2017, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1601540.

[28]        D. Awschalom et al., ‘Development of Quantum InterConnects for Next-Generation Information Technologies’, PRX Quantum, vol. 2, no. 1, p. 017002, Feb. 2021, doi: 10.1103/PRXQuantum.2.017002.

[29]        L. J. Stephenson et al., ‘High-rate, high-fidelity entanglement of qubits across an elementary quantum network’, Phys. Rev. Lett., vol. 124, no. 11, p. 110501, Mar. 2020, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.124.110501.

[30]        B. Masters, ‘New reforms should stop failing Spacs in their tracks’, Financial Times, Apr. 04, 2022. Accessed: May 07, 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.ft.com/content/e38125db-caa6-40ce-b16e-1dc0745e1b48

I will be moderating a panel on “exploring the appetite for collaboration on quantum for the greater good—early outcomes and the opportunity at stake” with Carol Monaghan (Scottish National Party MP), Carlos Kuchkovsky, Ling Ge and Ray LaFlamme at The Economist Conference on Commercializing Quantum.

Don’t miss either one, or the many other fantastic speakers, and sign up now #quantumiscoming #EconQuantum

Register Now!