Source: Deputy Editor Emily Gardner @ Maven’s Notebook, as of 8/27/26

Nevada state officials and water negotiators argue in the suit that the federal framework failed to include the required economic impact analysis for Southern Nevada. Gov. Joe Lombardo called the issue “a matter of survival” for Las Vegas and the state’s economic engine.

The Arizona Department of Water Resources (ADWR) has also called parts of the proposal “unacceptable.” The new federal framework calls for 1.25 million acre-feet of water cuts across the three Lower Basin states:

• 760,000 acre-feet for Arizona

• 440,000 acre-feet for California

• 50,000 acre-feet for Nevada.

(One acre-foot is equivalent to 325,851 gallons.)

Basin map and current allocations:

Graphic source: Public Policy Institute of California; Data as of March 2025 updates to Colorado River Compact

Data Center Fight

Since the Nevada Legislature passed a 2015 bill creating property and sales tax breaks for data centers, the state has issued incentives to 14. This Data Center Map shows current and planned locations totaling 76 facilities as of Monday, Aug. 31.

A public opinion war on data centers and resource use is playing out across the state, and several jurisdictions have paused or banned data center construction. This map from The Nevada Independent shows the data center state of affairs (click for the interactive scroll over version):

Source: The Nevada Independent As of 8/31/26

National Outlook

Data released earlier this week showed Q2 GDP rose by 1.5 percent Q2, meeting expectations in most surveys.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised upward last Friday to 51.7 for August from 51.0 in the preliminary estimate and is still below July’s mark of 55.2.

Inflation expectations trend line:

Cost to Start an LLC

According to a methodology that includes the initial filing fee and any annualized renewal fee, Nevada is the 3^rd most expensive state in which to start a Limited Liability Corporation (its initial filing fee is $425 with a renewal fee of $350 for a year one total of $775, according to the methodology employed in the infomap below):

As of June 2026

All states require an initial filing fee. States differ in their requirements for recurring fees, which may include annual or biennial reports, franchise taxes, or other mandatory filings. California, for example, levies an $800 annual franchise tax.

Eleven states have no recurring filing fee or tax: Alabama, Arizona, Idaho, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, New Mexico, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas.

Reminder for why so many companies incorporate in Nevada:

• Nevada levies no personal income tax, no corporate income tax, and no franchise tax. There is no tax on corporate shares, capital gains, or business inventory at the state level. The Nevada Commerce Tax applies only to businesses generating more than $4 million in Nevada-source gross revenue per fiscal year.

• Nevada statutes and courts do not hold owners personally liable for company debts absent direct proof of fraud or intentional misconduct; failing to adhere to minor corporate formalities does not void the liability protection. If a member faces personal litigation, the creditor’s sole legal remedy against the LLC interest is a charging order (a lien against distributions).

• Nevada does not require passive LLC members (non-managing owners) to be listed on public records—only managers or managing members appear on the filed list.

A New Thing in Food Service

Boston’s Logan International Airport, Caesars, and the corporate campuses of Disney and Tesla have a nifty new feature: small robotic kiosks that serve hot food 24/7.

Measuring just 10 square feet and needing only an electrical outlet to operate—apart from the restocking of ingredients when supplies run low—name brands that are selling food through Just Baked Smart Bistro kiosks include Hot Pockets and White Castle.

Kiosk image and graphic source: Automated Retail Technologies

Reno RV Maker Tops NV Growth Rankings

Off-grid/off-road RV maker AEONrv has been named the No. 1 fastest-growing private company in Nevada on the 2026 Inc. 5000 list. The firm saw a 4,231 percent increase in revenue from 2022 to 2025. The Reno-based manufacturer ranked 66th nationally—in the top 1.3 percent.

Export Partners by State

Only 13 U.S. states have a top export partner other than Canada or Mexico.

• Notably, New York sends 34.7 percent of its exports to Switzerland.

  • Gold—Bullion moves through New York’s COMEX (commodity exchange) to Switzerland’s world-class refineries to be melted or recast into standardized formats.

  • Jewelry & Diamonds—Polished diamonds and precious jewelry constitute a large chunk of secondary luxury exports.

  • Paintings & Fine Art — Collectors’ items routinely cross from New York’s prominent auction houses and galleries to Swiss buyers.

• Utah sends 48.1 percent of its exports to the United Kingdom. Like New York and Switzerland, Utah’s trade relationship with the UK is dominated by unwrought gold and precious metals

• China is the top export destination for Oregon and Washington.

• Germany ranks first for New Hampshire and South Carolina.

• Alaska’s top partner is South Korea; Hawaii’s is Australia.

• Florida—> Brazil

• Indiana —> Italy

Nevada is among the states with a relatively small share of its exported goods going to its top trading partner:

Source: Visual Capitalist As of 2026

Canadian Exports

Canada-U.S. trade negotiations broke down in August, with 50 percent tariffs in effect on a slate of Canadian goods valued at roughly $28 billion Canadian dollars ($20 billion U.S.) annually, according to BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic. BMO estimates U.S. tariffs could cut half a percentage point from Canada’s annual GDP growth.

Total export value to the U.S. is estimated at $214.8 billion U.S.

Data source: Statistics Canada / Canadian government as of 8/26/26

Canada is the largest export partner of 25 U.S. states, so trade exposure cuts both ways. However, with more than two-thirds of Canadian exports destined for the U.S., Canada has considerably more at stake in any disruption to cross-border trade.

U.S. IOUs

Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities stood at $9.29 trillion as of June 2026, with Japan, the UK, and China remaining the largest holders. Total foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries increased 2.3 percent year over year.

Data source: Dept. of Treasury As of June 2026

• Japan topped the list despite a 3.3 percent year-over-year decline.

• The UK followed closely with $939.9 billion, after increasing its holdings by 9.8 percent annually.

• China held $633.4 billion in U.S. Treasuries, despite a 13.4 percent annual decline. (Note: Some Chinese holdings may be veiled through financial centers, such as the UK, Belgium, Luxembourg, and the Cayman Islands.)

• Belgium and the Cayman Islands ranked fourth and sixth, with holdings of $482.5 billion and $453.1 billion, respectively. Their positions highlight the above-noted role of financial and custodial centers in Treasury ownership data.

• The UAE recorded the largest annual increase among the 20 holders shown, with Treasury holdings rising 19 percent. Its holdings stood at $114.8 billion in June 2026.

Purchasing Power

Inflation’s effect on the U.S. dollar around the world since 2019 (note that it has fared far better in more than 20 countries than it has here at home, where it has seen a 23 percent decline in value):

More Seniors Ahead

The share of the world population aged 65 and older is projected to nearly double from 10.5 percent to 19.6 percent between 2025 and 2060, while the population aged 0 to 19 will essentially remain flat, according to a new report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Between 2020 and 2025, the proportion of the population aged 65 and older exceeded that of those aged 5 and younger for the first time in recorded history.

Regional distribution data and projections show that in Africa and Asia, the global share of residents age 65 and older will grow from 7 percent to 11 percent and from 57 percent to 62 percent, respectively, while all other regions will see a decrease.

In 2025, the U.S. ranked 48th among 227 countries by age, with 18.9 percent of its population aged 65 or older. By 2060, older adults are projected to make up 23.4 percent of the U.S. population.

Regional population stats:

Happy Labor Day

Fact Pack will be dark next week for the Labor Day holiday.

On the Horizon

MarketWatch calendar:

In July, Kalshi agreed to implement a “geofencing solution provided by a third-party commercial provider” to prevent anyone within Nevada boundaries from entering its site.

In a statement issued over the weekend, Kalshi General Counsel Rick Heaslip called the control board’s lawsuit “a vindictive waste of taxpayer dollars at the bidding of casinos.”

National Debt Hits $40T Mark

U.S. national debt has crossed the $40 trillion threshold, roughly doubling since FY 2016:

Graphic created by Google GEMINI A as of 2026

Data source: Department of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

In response to rising long-term yields — with 10-year Treasuries hovering around 4.7 percent — the Treasury Department announced an expansion of its bond buyback program to support liquidity and manage long-duration borrowing costs.

Service Sector Spike

Service-sector activity in the U.S. reached the highest level since the end of 2024, offsetting a slowdown in manufacturing.

As of 8/21/26

The U.S. Census Bureau’s Quarterly Selected Services Revenue report showed second-quarter 2026 revenue reached $6.42 trillion, an increase of 3.1 percent over Q1.

Computer Memory Cost Bounce

Once-expensive computers and tech gadgets got cheaper and cheaper as the years after 1960 rolled on, writes Elliot Bentley, a data visualization developer at Datawrapper.

As of 2023

Now, cell phones, laptops, and game consoles are seeing a dramatic price spike over where they stood in January 2025:

Source: Datawrapper Current (“Now”) prices as of 8/20/26

Why?

AI. Big tech companies building big data centers are buying out global supplies of RAM — the short-term “random access memory” that performs live tasks and processes and is used in all modern gadgets.

Related: Some of Nvidia’s biggest customers have been told the prices of servers containing its artificial intelligence chips are going up more than 15 percent, as memory-chip costs soar.

Reno Hawk Fire by the Numbers

As of late Monday morning, 42,000 residents (around 14,000 homes) had been ordered to evacuate, with an additional 45,000 residents placed under “Get Set” evacuation warnings.

Screenshot as of 10:52 a.m. on Monday, Aug. 24

The fire began Saturday and quickly grew to more than 24 square miles as it spread across the Peavine Peak area of the Humboldt–Toiyabe National Forest, where rugged foothills are ringed by homes and businesses near the California state line.

Gov. Lombardo declared a state of emergency in Washoe County on Saturday and mobilized the Nevada National Guard to support firefighting with two helicopters and 60 troops. Also responding were 800 local and regional fire personnel.

Nearly 10,000 customers in Washoe County were without power on Sunday, down from 60,000 on Saturday.

Wildfire in the U.S.

Source: USA Facts As of 2025

Since 1983, federal fire agencies have tracked 3.0 million wildfires across 230 million combined acres—more than twice the area of California.

Graph source: USA Facts as of 2025

Data source: National Interagency Fire Center

Over the last decade—from 2016 to 2025—an annual average of 63,400 wildfires burned an average of 7.1 million acres of vegetation in the U.S.

Takeaway:

Wildfires have not been as frequent in number in recent years—but they are burning more acres of vegetation. The 5.1-million acres burned in 2025 was down 43 percent from burnt acreage n 2024 — but was nearly double the acreage burned in 2023.

Graph source: USA Facts As of 2025

Data source: National Interagency Fire Center

In 2025, wildfires damaged a reported 18,385 structures, including 12,773 homes, 5,116 minor structures, and 496 commercial structures. Nearly 90 percent of the destroyed buildings, about 16,324, were in Southern California.

Suppression costs are up:

Graph source: USA Facts as of 2024

Data source: National Interagency Fire Center

Inflation-adjusted data as of 2024

On average, 125 wildfire disasters were declared in the U.S. per year from 2021 to 2025.

In 2025, wildfires affected all states.

• Alaska had the most acres burned at 1,006,158, followed by

• California with 505,994,

• and Arizona with 326,813.

States with the most acres of wildfire per 10,000 acres, however, were two we don’t typically associate with wildfire activity:

As of 2025

Forecasts suggest the U.S. will see above-average totals for both fires and acreage burnt in 2026.

Source: National Interagency Fire Center As of Aug. 1, 2026

No Surprise: Nevada Has Most Transplants

Nevada (with 17 percent) and Washington, D.C. (with 25 percent) are the two locales with the fewest number of native-born residents. Louisiana (74 percent) and Michigan (72 percent) are the states with the most home-grown population.

Most data per Census Bureau estimates as of 2024

Sunshine Premium

Data geeks will be pleased there is a downloadable, zoomable version (on Twitter/X) of the following dot graph with metro placement based on cross-checking its median home prices with the “Camelot Index,” which ranks how “nice” the weather is across four categories (heat, cold, precipitation, and sunshine), weighting days with temperatures below 32°F and days above 90°F most heavily.

Data based on 1991-2020 norms and averages

The “Pricey Paradise” area of the graph shows that numerous California metros fit the nice-and-more-expensive bill; Honolulu gets an honorable mention; and Las Vegas, Reno, Scottsdale, and Phoenix are in the Mountain West mix, along with locales in Florida, Idaho, Colorado, and Utah:

Zoom-in screenshot of prior dot graph Data based on 1991-2020 norms and averages

Family Farm Financials

There were 336 bankruptcy filings under Chapter 12—a special category for family farms and fisheries—in the U.S. in the 12-month period ending June 30, up from 282 in the previous year, according to federal courts data.

• Crop prices have remained low due to ample global supplies; American Farm Bureau Federation economists project 2027 will be the sixth consecutive year in which U.S. farmers see negative returns once row crop losses are factored in, according to a report in The Daily Upside.

• Corn losses are predicted to rise 27 percent from -$131 per acre this year to -$167 per acre in 2027.

• Soybean losses are forecast to rise 72 percent from -$80 per acre to -$138 per acre.

Persistent, elevated prices of diesel fuel and the rising cost of fertilizer—as we reported in a prior issue, one-third of the world’s supply of the latter commodity is transited through the Strait of Hormuz—also meant farmers struggled to buy all they needed in the spring planting months.

• Seven of the eight major U.S. fertilizers tracked by agricultural market intelligence provider AgroLatam are more expensive than they were a year ago, per the Daily Upside write-up.

Politico Pro reported earlier in August that Senate Republicans are moving to hold a vote in early September on a $95 billion Iran war package that includes $12 billion in relief for farmers.

Spotlight on American Farms

Small family farms in the U.S. dominate the agricultural landscape by volume, but production value is heavily concentrated among large-scale operations. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture:

• Small Family Farms (Gross Cash Farm Income < $350,000) — Account for 86 percent of all farms but represent only 17 percent of total production value while utilizing 40 percent of the land.

• Midsize Family Farms ($350,000 – $999,000) — Account for 6 percent of all farms, holding 18 percent of the land and providing 18 percent of the production value.

• Large-Scale Family Farms (GCFI ≥ $1 million) — Account for just 5 percent of all farms but generate 50 percent of the production value.

• Nonfamily Farms: Account for the remaining 3 percent of all farms and make up 14 percent of agricultural production value.

Bar graph showing share and value for small to large to non-family farms, left to right:

Graphic created by Google GEMINI AI from USDA data as of August 2026

Marijuana Use is Up

Cannabis use is again at a record high, and cigarette smoking is at a record low, according to new polling from Gallup. Seventeen percent of American adults say they smoke marijuana, tied with the high mark in 2023, and a record 15 percent also say they use edibles. Cigarette use has declined to just 11 percent from a high of 54 percent in 1954.

In 2013, the year Gallup started polling the pot-smoking question, just 7 percent of respondents said they smoked pot.

Economic data:

• Economic output is estimated at between $123.6 billion and $149 billion in 2026, including direct sales, indirect spending by industry employees, real estate, and ancillary businesses, according to a FlowHub analysis.

• Legal sales are projected to range from $30.5 billion to $47 billion, according to analysts at Whitney Economics.

• The industry supports 425,000+ stable, full-time jobs across cultivation, manufacturing, testing, and retail, according to federal jobs data.

Much more data here.

Box Office Boom?

Last week’s website-crashing rush for Dune 3 tickets underlined the findings of recent demographic surveys and ticket sales data.

One in five Gen Z adults surveyed by YouGov said they’d seen a movie in theaters in the last week, and about one in four Gen Z (18-29) and millennial (30-44) adults said they’d gone in the last month.

Vegas Chamber Event Alert

Tickets available here.

On the Horizon

MarketWatch calendar:

Source: Luxury Link As of 2025

In raw numbers in 2025:

• Florida welcomed the most overseas visitors, with 9.3 million.

• New York came in second with 9.1 million.

• California ranked third with 6.6 million.

Adjusting for population in 2025:

• Hawaii welcomed 1,243 overseas visitors per 1,000 residents, the highest concentration in the nation and nearly twice that of second-place Nevada (718).

• New York (458) and Florida (417) also ranked among the per capita leaders.

• Wyoming (276) and Massachusetts (199) also ranked highly.

Inflation-adjusted spending and overseas arrivals in the U.S. remain below 2019 levels, though, and recovery since the pandemic has been uneven across regions, according to a Luxury Link analysis of U.S. Department of Commerce travel data.

Source: Luxury Link As of May 2026

Surveys of international tourists to the U.S. align with those of Americans traveling overseas when it comes to motivations:

Source: Luxury Link As of 2025

More Americans Are Traveling Overseas

More than 56 million U.S. residents traveled overseas last year, according to an International Trade Administration estimate, up from roughly 53.7 million in 2024 and around 32.7 million 10 years ago.

As of 2025

Of the 56 million, a record-high nearly 24 million Americans traveled to Europe in 2025, according to Survey of International Air Travelers (SIAT) data.

The largest share of those travelers went to the United Kingdom, Italy, or France. Portugal and Greece saw the biggest growth in U.S. visits between 2015 and 2025.

No surprise: The wealthiest income bracket is driving overseas travel—followed by those with a combined household income of $100,000 to $119,000.

By age, travelers in the 55-64 age range and older led the pack, followed by the youngest group: ages 18-24.

Atlanta Fed – Wage Growth

We haven’t reported on wage growth recently, so we thought it worth noting that the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker metric—which is based on the three-month moving average of median wage growth—edged up to 3.8 percent in July from 3.6 percent the prior month for all workers.

For those who did not change jobs, the Tracker edged up 0.2 percent to 3.6 percent in July from 3.4 percent in June; for those who did change jobs, it increased 0.3 percent to 4.4 percent in July from 4.1 percent in June.

As of July 2026

(Note: The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker is a measure of the nominal wage growth of individuals. It is constructed using microdata from the Current Population Survey (CPS) and is the median percent change in the hourly wage of individuals observed 12 months apart.

Earning More Tops “Better Life” List

A new McKinsey survey of more than 30,000 Americans reveals that regardless of community type, geographical location, or annual income, economic mobility and financial well-being are by far the highest priorities for Americans — and earning more is the top aspirational priority.

Data as of a McKinsey survey conducted April 1-13, 2026

Results also showed that civic and political interests are less important to most Americans — ranking 6^th among six priorities — than financial security, health and well-being, place and environment, social connection, and career development.

Data as of a McKinsey survey conducted April 1-13, 2026

Rising cost of living—topped by grocery and housing costs—along with debt and health challenges were named as the top three barriers to hopes and aspirations:

Data as of a McKinsey survey conducted April 1-13, 2026

Barrick & Newmont Complete JV

Barrick Mining Corporation has resolved all outstanding Nevada Gold Mines joint venture disputes with Newmont, securing $1.95 billion in consideration for contributed properties and gaining Newmont’s consent to proceed with an IPO of its North American gold assets, according to a Simply Wall St. report.

As a reminder, the Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) joint venture—operated by Barrick Mining Corporation (61.5 percent) and Newmont Corporation (38.5 percent)—is the single largest gold-producing complex in the world.

The state’s aggregate gold output has recently declined due to operational modifications, grading changes, and Barrick and Newmont’s corporate restructuring. Statewide production in Nevada was 105.1 metric tons in 2025, down from 108.2 metric tons in 2024 and 125.4 metric tons in 2023.

Graph created by Google AI As of 2025

Despite recent annual contractions, Nevada still accounts for more than 65 percent of U.S. gold output and roughly 3.2 percent of global gold production, according to data from Mining.com.

Apple Market Cap

As the clock quickly ticks toward Tim Cook’s step away from Apple, we present the following graph without further comment:

As of 4/20/26

Sky-High Shipping Costs

Shutdowns and restricted shipping lanes resulting from conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine, and adjustments to allowed ship and barge depths in the Panama Canal and major EU waterways amid severe drought conditions, are driving up shipping costs worldwide.

Average rates for container freight going from Far East Asia to the U.S. East Coast are up 234 percent year-over-year to $10,249 per 40-foot container (FEU), according to an analysis of data by the Financial Times.

Source: Financial Times As of 8/10/23

The Financial Times reported that John Ollett, head of Europe freight pricing at Argus, called the situation “without doubt the single greatest disruption that the shipping market has seen on record, eclipsing the Covid pandemic and Russia sanctions.”

Regional examples:

Latest available data as reported by Financial Times on 8/16/26

In particular, the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) is reducing vessel draft limits to conserve water, forcing cargo ships to carry lighter loads and reducing the volume of goods each ship can transport. Major carriers have added fees — from $100 to $500 per TEU — to offset the loss from lighter loads.

Superpower History

The team at Visual Capitalist has one-upped themselves with a graphic showing the changing share of world GDP by nation (or bloc) from 1820 to 2022:

As of 2022

A/C

Intense summer heat in nations across the globe this summer has sparked conversation about cooling methods and the associated technology and energy requirements, so the team at Our World in Data saw fit to dig into rates of air conditioning use worldwide.

In Japan and the United States, A/C adoption is almost universal—at least 90 percent of households in both nations have it. Close to 80 percent of households in China also have A/C, a notable number considering the country’s vast size and population of 1.4 billion.

A/C rates in Southeast Asia, India, and Europe are far lower, either for economic reasons or because historically, they weren’t needed.

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates for select countries and regions as of 2025

Rising power demand for cooling is posing challenges for electricity systems worldwide. Global electricity demand related to space cooling has grown by 50 percent since 2015, rising to around 2,900 terawatt-hours — more than the total electricity demand of the entire EU, according to IEA estimates.

Eight countries have introduced measures related to cooling and energy use since March of this year:

• Bangladesh, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Sri Lanka have set minimum A/C temperatures in offices, ranging from 24°C to 26°C.

• Jordan has restricted the use of A/C in public offices.

• The Seychelles government has asked public offices to switch off the A/C once a week.

Annual shipments of residential A/C units across global regions since 2020 (click here for scroll-over data for each region):

Sources: IEA based on data from national and regional commerce agencies including UN Comtrade, ChinaIOL, JARN, JRAIA, EFC, EHPA, AHRI, HRAI, METI, AVC. As of 2025

USMCA & NAFTA

After the White House declined to renew, a review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)—a carryover from the North American Free Trade Agreement (aka NAFTA), ratified 33 years ago in 1993—is underway.

A brief review of North American trade history while we wait to see what happens:

The stated aim of NAFTA was to seek maximum trade integration between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada. It zeroed out tariffs on virtually all goods in the hope that American manufacturers would thrive on exports to Mexico’s growing middle class.

Instead—underscoring the law of unintended consequences—scores of U.S. companies opened factories in lower-wage, barely regulated Mexico so they could bring competitively priced consumer goods to America.

NAFTA also prompted Chinese producers to send parts to Mexico for assembly, thereby qualifying them for tariff-free treatment, and then export the finished goods to the U.S.—in effect, enjoying the benefits of NAFTA without being a party to the agreement.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau (Census Bureau Foreign Trade Data):

• Mexico: In 1992, the year before NAFTA took effect, the U.S. ran a $1.7 billion goods surplus with Mexico. By 2025, the surplus had become a $197 billion deficit.

• China: In 1992, the U.S. ran a goods trade deficit of $18.31 billion with China. By 2025, that deficit had grown to $202.10 billion.

• Canada: In 1992, the U.S. ran a goods trade deficit of $8.04 billion with Canada. By 2025, that deficit had expanded to $48.30 billion.

The three-country aggregate: In 1992, the U.S. had a $28.05 billion goods deficit. In 2025, the deficit was $447.4 billion.

Infomap of the Year

It’s possible we all knew this in middle school, but we still think a “wow” is appropriate anytime we’re reminded that Africa has a greater landmass than the U.S., China, and India put together, and then some:

Map source: Visual Capitalist, as of 2025

Land area table showing percent of Africa by nation:

Source: Visual Capitalist, as of 2025

(Note: America “wins” the land mass competition between countries thanks to the size of Alaska and Hawaii, without which its area would be 2.96 million square miles.)

True-sized world map:

On the True-to-Size Horizon

MarketWatch calendar (we like the new formatting):

• Local government educational entities (-50,000 workers)

• Leisure and hospitality (-40,000)

• Warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers (-21,000)

• Retail trade (-19,000)

Growth:

• Healthcare (+22,000 jobs)

• Ambulatory health care (+18,000)

The number of people on temporary layoff rose by 153,000 to 921,000, but the number of Americans unemployed for 27 weeks or more—the definition of long-term unemployment—dropped by 64,000, a sign that people are permanently leaving the workforce.

Wages increased 3.2 percent year over year, the slowest growth in five years.

Zillow July 2026 Market Report

Zillow’s latest U.S. housing report shows home sales rose 7 percent year over year in July, the biggest annual increase so far in 2026. However, newly pending listings, a leading indicator of future closings, were up just 0.3 percent from a year ago and declined 7.7 percent from June.

New pending listings trend lines by raw number (first graph) and year-over-year increase or decrease (second graph) from 2023 through July 2026:

Source: Zillow As of July 2026

Available inventory (1.41 million homes for sale) was 1.5 percent above year-ago levels in July, extending the 32-month streak of supply-side gains.

Home Values & Mortgage Payments

• The average U.S. home value in July was $371,757, and home values are 1.1 percent higher than last July.

• The monthly mortgage payment on a typical U.S. home in July was $1,888, assuming a 20 percent down payment (and excluding taxes and insurance)—0.9 percent lower than last year.

Competition

• Homes in the U.S. took a median of 25 days to go pending in July — five days longer than a year earlier and one day longer than in June.

• The share of listings with a price cut in July was 27.1 percent, down from 27.4 percent a year earlier but up from 25.7 percent in June.

• 30.8 percent of homes sold above list price in June (the most recent data available), compared to 30.9 percent last year.

Select Mountain West market numbers:

Source: Zillow As of July 2026

Homebuilding Permits

Idaho issued more homebuilding permits per 100,000 residents (861) than any other state between June 2025 and May 2026:

Data source: U.S. Census Bureau as of May 2026

Idaho was followed by:

• South Carolina (829)

• North Carolina (773)

• Utah (725)

• Florida (694)

• Texas (620)

• Arizona (608)

• Delaware (595).

Nevada was 18^th in the permitting ranking with 424.

Bottom 10:

Lyon County Approves Data Center

Lyon County commissioners voted 3–1 last week to preliminarily approve a key zoning change near Yerington in support of the proposed 4.6 million-square-foot, 1,000-megawatt Monarch Data Center, according to The Nevada Independent.

Conceptual two-story building dimensions for Monarch Data Center

Source: Copia Power, developer of Monarch and other grid-connected data center campuses

Copia Power, the developer, must complete the land purchase and submit final designs to the Lyon board for approval before construction can begin, according to The Indy. The Nevada Division of Environmental Protection and Nevada State Engineer will also need to approve the plans.

Plans are expected to include on-campus solar, storage, and thermal capacity, all tied into an integrated high-voltage transmission system, a hallmark of Copia data center projects.

New Solar Tariffs

New solar-related trade measures ordered by the White House to reduce U.S. reliance on China and other foreign suppliers will impose 15 percent tariffs and price floors on imported polysilicon, the primary material used to make solar panels and semiconductors.

Tim Brightbill, co-chair of international trade practice at law firm Wiley Rein, which has represented U.S. solar manufacturers in several major trade cases, explained the motivation for the move to Bloomberg:

Every time U.S. solar cell and module producers seek trade relief, the Chinese companies shift their unfair trade practices to other countries. We are hopeful that if this… action is done right, it could be an important step toward addressing this problem.

The history:

• The U.S. first imposed duties on Chinese-made solar panels and cells in 2012 during the Obama administration to prevent market flooding and price distortions that disadvantaged American manufacturers.

• Chinese companies responded by shifting component production to countries not subject to the U.S. tariffs — and also reliant on Chinese materials inputs.

• The Obama Administration responded by penalizing the countries helping China sidestep tariffs, starting with Taiwan in 2014.

• In 2024, in response to further Chinese machinations, the Biden Administration imposed duties on Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia.

• Production rooted in Chinese supply chains then shifted to Indonesia, Laos, and India, prompting the Trump Administration to impose preliminary duties on imports from those countries earlier this year.

Ethiopia, South Korea, and the Philippines are now also countries of concern, based on import data showing a rapid increase of solar cells into the U.S. from those nations earlier this year, according to Bloomberg.

Despite U.S. tariff policy across three White House administrations, data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association shows China produced 86 percent of the world’s solar panels in 2024, controlling even larger shares of materials and products needed for production, including:

• 92 percent of photovoltaic cells

• 97 percent of wafers (thin slices of semiconductor material such as crystalline silicon)

• 93 percent of polysilicon.

Solar panel global trade balance infomap:

Data source: OEC.WORLD As of 2024

Key data points:

• China ships $27.8 billion worth of solar panels annually.

• Vietnam follows in a distant second with $6.3 billion.

• The U.S. is the world’s largest consumer of solar panels—$14.8 billion annually.

• Emerging economies, including Brazil and India, import/consume $2.8 billion each.

Chinese Crackdown on China

While the U.S. attempts to control global solar supply chains and pricing to support domestic manufacturing, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation has stepped up scrutiny of shady accounting practices and photovoltaic “low-price dumping” within China.

The agency has called on Chinese manufacturers to end “destructive below-cost competition and shift their focus from price to product quality,” according to a report in Berlin-based PV Magazine.

The gist: China lacks consistently regulated accounting frameworks tied to production, so Chinese companies can use widely different accounting methods to determine whether prices cover manufacturing costs. This enables bad actors to game the system, undercut competitors, and disrupt stock markets.

Solar by the Numbers

In 2025, U.S. utility-scale solar generation reached a record 296,000 GWh (up 34 percent from 2024), and small-scale solar reached 93,000 GWh (up 11 percent), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

• 2025 Solar Growth: Solar generated 8.5 percent of all U.S. electricity, meeting roughly 61 percent of the total rise in electricity demand.

• Solar Manufacturing Surge: U.S. solar module manufacturing capacity expanded past 65.5 GW by the end of 2025, up significantly from 42.5 GW in 2024.

• 2024 Wind & Solar Generation: Combined solar and wind provided 17 percent of total U.S. electricity, with solar standing as the fastest-growing source.

The world installed a record 647 GW of new solar capacity in 2025, according to EIA data.

Global Manufacturing

Only China has gained significant manufacturing market share—from 9 percent to 27 percent—in the past 20 years:

As of 2025

Note that India is the only other nation with an increased share — from 2 percent to 3 percent.

The greatest declines have occurred in:

• Japan (a decrease of 8 percent, from 13 percent to 5 percent)

• The EU (a decrease of 7 percent, from 24 percent to 17 percent)

• The U.S. (a decrease of 5 percent, from 22 percent to 17 percent).

Productivity

Nevada is one of eight states that saw per-hour labor productivity decline between 2024 and 2024, according to a Visual Capitalist analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data:

Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics as of 2025

Western U.S. productivity declines:

• Idaho (-2.5 percent, the most in the nation)

• Alaska (-2.3 percent)

• Wyoming (-0.7 percent)

• Nevada (-0.3 percent, tied with Nebraska to round out the bottom eight)

Western U.S. productivity boosts:

• Arizona (4.4 percent, the most in the nation after Washington, D.C.’s 5.2 percent)

• California (4.3 percent, putting it in 3^rd place)

• Oregon (3.7 percent, tied with Massachusetts for 4^th place)

• Colorado (3.2 percent, 8^th place)

Global Food Commodities

Milk wins, followed by rice and pork:

Data source: Food & Agricultural Organization of the U.S. As of July 2026

Other takeaways

• Animal products make up five of the top eight spots, led by milk, pork, and beef.

• Tomatoes are the highest-ranking produce item, at a value of $136 billion, followed by:

  • Potatoes ($122 billion)

  • Apples ($112 billion)

  • Grapes ($97 billion)

  • Sweet potatoes ($89 billion)

Top 20 (uncategorized):

Data source: Food & Agricultural Organization of the U.S. As of July 2026

Out-of-Country Travelers

It’s no surprise that international travel is most frequently enjoyed by residents of higher-income economies (indicated by yellow bars on the graph), but the data assembled and analyzed for some countries by Visual Capitalist is nonetheless interesting:

As of 2025

Data source for travel: Pew Research Center, as of a 2023 Pew survey

Data source for income classifications: World Bank as of 2025

On the Horizon

MarketWatch calendar:

On the global balance sheet, U.S. equity is at an all-time high:

Source: A 7/23/26 McKinsey report

McKinsey’s global balance sheet, issued annually, assesses the world’s assets, liabilities, and wealth, providing a glimpse into the economic health of the globe. Summary of its 2026 annual update estimates:

• Global wealth reached nearly $1.8 quadrillion ($1,800 trillion) in 2025, up from $1.7 quadrillion in 2024.

• The 2025 balance sheet was driven by the highs and lows in the world’s two biggest economies:

  • U.S. equity values soared to 2.4 times corporate net assets; profits were double their share of GDP since 2000.

  • China’s corporate debt grew to 80 percent of real assets, versus a 50 percent ratio globally. Government debt remains near all-time highs in the United States and has grown most rapidly in China.

• Global household wealth growth rose to a new high of $570 trillion, driven by “on paper” gains — just 20 percent came from real capital formation. Equity values in the U.S. and Canada drove most of the rest.

  • China, France, and Germany saw a drop in paper wealth as real estate prices declined.

  • In the United Kingdom and Japan, inflation pushed up asset values.

Source: McKinsey & Company

Labor Market & Inflation Outlook

California, New York, Pennsylvania, and Illinois “lead” the nation with the highest unadjusted insured unemployment rates, while South Dakota (2.0 percent) and Florida recorded the lowest, according to the latest U.S. Department of Labor state breakdown.

Unemployment rates were lower in June in 8 states, higher in 2 states, and stable in 40 states and the District of Columbia, per data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In total, 17 states had unemployment rates lower than the U.S. figure of 4.2 percent in June, while 8 states and D.C. had higher rates, and 25 states had rates that were about the same.

Thirteen states had unemployment rate increases from June 2025, the largest of which were in:

• Connecticut (+1.3 percentage points)

• Oklahoma (+1.0 point).

Seven states had over-the-year rate decreases, the largest of which was in Ohio (-1.0 percentage point).

On an annual basis, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 4 states:

• Texas (+177,900, or +1.2 percent)

• North Carolina (+62,900, or +1.2 percent)

• Minnesota (+45,900, or +1.5)

• Nevada (+36,700, or +2.3 percent).

Financial markets largely expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming FOMC meeting, though oil prices have caused some market watchers to allow for a potential rate hike.

SNAP Gap

The SNAP participation rate in Nevada was down 16.2 percent in April compared to the same month in 2025, according to an Axios info-map based on a CBPP analysis of state and federal data:

Map source: Axios

As states grapple with changes to SNAP — including expanded work requirements and an end to exceptions for homeless people and veterans; a requirement for more frequent verification of household employment status and income; and increased federal scrutiny of payments made to ineligible households — food banks across the country are bracing for higher demand, purchasing record levels of food, and working directly with farmers and grocery retailers to find additional sources, per a USDA spokesperson.

Related:

Graphic Source: Visual Capitalist

Data source: USDA

As of 2025

Note that Mountain West states Colorado, Montana, Nevada, Wyoming, and New Mexico round out the bottom five when it comes to price per acre of farmland.

Other takeaways:

• Farmland values vary more than 30-fold across the U.S., from $725 per acre in New Mexico to $22,500 in Rhode Island.

• California ranks fifth with farmland averaging $13,700 per acre.

Assistance Needed for Federal Assistance?

A CATO analysis of the more than 90 means-tested federal assistance programs found that in FY 2025, they cost federal taxpayers close to $1.2 trillion — and found that each program contains “structural flaws” that lead to “financial mismanagement.”

Key CATO excerpt:

…problems are driven largely by two reinforcing weaknesses. The first is a financing mismatch whereby states process applications and distribute benefits while federal taxpayers finance most, or all, of the expenditures. This leaves states with weak incentives to enforce eligibility standards, invest in fraud prevention, or control waste, since the consequences of financial mismanagement fall overwhelmingly on federal taxpayers. The second is administrative complexity, which is exacerbated by outdated verification systems, reliance on self-reported eligibility data, and underutilized fraud-prevention tools, such as the Treasury’s Do Not Pay system.

The reason for the federal government’s tightening of SNAP requirements while other programs carry on per usual (for now) is not difficult to parse: The ratio of federal to state dollars in support of SNAP payouts is 9 out of 10.

As of 2023 state and federal data (2024 data is a CATO projection)

(If you missed it, be sure to check out our write-up last week on the host of new federal requirements and rule changes to the SNAP program — and Nevada’s relatively low payment error rate compared to other states.)

CATO’s briefing also noted that the cost of Medicaid payouts has shifted from being equally shared by states and the federal government to being substantially covered at a federal level:

As of 2023 state and federal data (2024 data is a CATO projection)

Explanatory excerpt from CATO:

Although Congress intended it to be a joint federal-state program, federal policy decisions, such as the Affordable Care Act expanding eligibility to able-bodied adults, and states’ use of financing gimmicks have steadily shifted an increasing share of Medicaid’s spending to Washington. This trend is largely driven by Medicaid’s open-ended matching-grant structure, in which the federal government matches between $1 and $9 for every dollar that states spend on the program, with no limit on total federal contributions.

Read more here.

Defense Firms Invest Big

The world’s largest military defense companies are investing in military startups at record rates. Giants including BAE Systems and Lockheed Martin have poured $4.1 billion into venture capital rounds so far this year as they seek to adapt to the rapid evolution of war, according to the Financial Times.

Nevada’s Data Center Boom = Grid Bust?

“Nevada is now one of the fastest-growing data center markets in the country, and the math of that growth no longer fits the grid it runs on.” So begins an in-depth analysis by Fact Pack co-publisher and Principal of RCG Economics John Restrepo and Bob Potts, former Deputy Director of the Nevada Governor’s Office of Economic Development.

Key excerpt from the report’s executive summary:

In its 2026 Integrated Resource Plan, filed with state regulators in May, NV Energy reported roughly 22,000 megawatts of interest from data-center developers. That is nearly three times the two utilities’ combined 2025 system peak of nearly 8,250 megawatts. Formal requests from 39 prospective customers already total about 16,930 megawatts, most of it in Northern Nevada. The utility has also signed some 6 gigawatts of interconnection agreements, roughly 84 percent of them with large-load customers in Northern Nevada. Reno-Sparks now ranks among the top emerging data-center markets in the world, with Google, Switch, Vantage, and Apple all active in the state. Put plainly: the load being requested is two to three times the size of the entire system that serves every household and business in Nevada today.

For context, data centers are currently about 5 percent of Nevada Energy’s retail sales. NV Energy projects data center use could reach 64 percent of sales by 2046 — “a step change in the size of the system” that is “arriving faster than conventional generation and transmission can be built,” according to the report.

NV Energy’s response? The Obsidian Plan, a request to the Nevada Public Utilities Commission to approve 23 power-purchase agreements. It includes:

• 4,370 megawatts of new solar and 5,405 megawatts of new battery storage, the largest such expansion in the company’s history

• 180 megawatts of new geothermal

• 1,223 megawatts of new natural-gas capacity at the Fort Churchill station near Yerington.

(Note: The Obsidian Plan builds on some projects already approved in the 2024 IRP and now coming online, including the Libra Solar and Dry Lake East solar-and-storage facilities.)

As for water use, the report notes that Nevada’s Desert Research Institute estimates that a dozen planned Northern Nevada projects, together roughly 5,900 megawatts of new demand and nearly three times Hoover Dam’s capacity, would consume about 22,095 acre-feet of water a year by 2033 between water used for cooling and water used to generate electricity.

Takeaways:

• Cooling technology matters as much as energy generation. For example, Microsoft’s sealed, closed-loop design avoids the use of more than 125 million liters of water per data center each year.

• Southern Nevada has already banned the construction of new evaporatively cooled buildings, forcing stakeholders to come up with new cooling technology solutions.

Can Nevada move fast enough and divide costs fairly enough to keep the data center boom from overwhelming the state’s power and water systems? Will economic diversification ensue, or will the state export its problems — and problem-solving jobs — to out-of-state providers?

The numbers:

Source: Nevada’s Data-Center Boom Is Outrunning Its Power Grid

By John Restrepo, Principal of RCG Economics and Bob Potts, Former Deputy Director of the Nevada GOED

July 21, 2026

U.S. Mortgage Rates

The rate for a 30-Year fixed mortgage averaged 6.58 percent for the week ending July 23, 2026, per the Freddie Mac weekly survey. Daily indices, including Bankrate and NerdWallet, track national averages at 6.61 percent and 6.80 percent.

• 15-Year Fixed Mortgage: Averaged 5.96 percent for the same period, according to Freddie Mac, with daily averages ranging from 5.99 percent to 6.33 percent.

• Alternative Loans (FHA / VA / ARM): 30-year FHA loans hovered between 6.36 percent and 6.43 percent; 30-year VA loans ranged between around 6.37 percent and 6.49 percent.

Despite the recent multi-month highs, current rates are slightly lower than they were at this time last year, when the 30-year fixed average was 6.74 percent, per Freddie Mac.

Wildfires in France and Spain

As wildfire season continues to have the expected effects here in the U.S., roughly 375,000 people in Spain and France were forced to evacuate their homes this past weekend, and tens of thousands more were ordered to shelter in place as firefighting measures ramped up in high fire-activity areas.

A series of summer heat waves, dry vegetation and dry ground soil, and high winds have stoked and spread the fires. As of Sunday:

• In central Spain, more than 190,000 acres were burning, most in the provinces of Ávila, Toledo, and Madrid. In Ávila, fire had burned roughly 124,000 acres, the largest in Spain’s recorded history.

• In France, fires and evacuations were concentrated in coastal areas west of Bordeaux

• Both countries had mobilized their militaries to assist with fire containment and evacuation route management.

• The EU, which positioned a record 777 firefighters across six high-risk countries ahead of the 2026 fire season, had directed them to fire-affected areas and dispatched additional firefighting aircraft to both nations.

As of Monday, to assist Spain:

• Greece and Italy had sent two Canadair “waterbombing” planes.

• Portugal had deployed more than 100 military personnel and firefighting equipment.

• Turkey was set to deploy two firefighting planes.

Switzerland deployed two Super Puma helicopters to France.

The July average high in both Bordeaux and Ávila has been around 90 degrees Fahrenheit, roughly 11 degrees above the month’s historical normal.

According to the EU’s Copernicus ​Climate Change Service (C3S), much of western and central Europe experienced drier-than-average soil conditions in June 2026, a few weeks before the wildfires near Madrid and Bordeaux began.

On the Horizon

MarketWatch calendar:

Based on FY 2025 SNAP data, the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) estimated there are just 10 states below the new federal standard: a 6 percent (or lower) error rate. The states above a 13.33 percent error rate may be eligible for delayed implementation provided in the federal measure to help them avoid a catastrophic fiscal crisis.

Nearly half of the remaining 36 states are expected to be on the hook for $100 million or more a year, according to an analysis by the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, which noted that New York state’s penalty is estimated at $1 billion.

A sample of high error rates:

• Alaska (23.15 percent)

• Washington, D.C. (18.66 percent)

• New Mexico (16.81 percent)

• Delaware (16.00 percent)

• Georgia (15.21 percent)

• Illinois (14.67 percent)

• Oregon (14.14 percent)

• New York (13.18 percent)

Mountain West error rates (other than Oregon):

• California (10.93 percent)

• Arizona (10.80)

• Colorado (10.09)

• Washington (6.98)

• Nevada (6.22 percent)

• Utah (5.54 percent)

• Wyoming (3.96 percent)

• Idaho (3.85 percent)

Lowest error rates (if not already listed):

• Nebraska (5.9 percent)

• Wisconsin (5.7 percent)

• Vermont (5.38 percent)

• Iowa (5.34 percent)

• Kentucky (4.7 percent)

• South Dakota (2.47 percent)

The day after FY 2025 SNAP payment error data was released, the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) responded with a statement noting recent “progress in improving payment accuracy” and “ongoing challenges of administering a complex federal-state program.” The press release added that the national error rate “declined from 10.93 percent in fiscal year 2024 to 10.62 percent in FY 2025.”

Review SNAP payment error rates by fiscal year here.

See all 2025 error data here.

Domestic Migration

A new Placer AI analysis sheds light on interstate and metro-to-metro relocation patterns and their causes since the mass migration of millions of Americans from expensive coastal housing markets to lower-cost metros during and just after the pandemic.

Data shows the relocation wave has mostly subsided as a result of employer return-to-office mandates, higher mortgage interest rates, and a decreasing affordability difference between many higher-cost and lower-cost states and metros.

In 2025, no state saw net migration inflows or outflows above 0.7 percent of the starting population, and none of the nation’s six most populous states saw net in-migration exceed 0.2 percent.

Among smaller states, South Carolina and Delaware led the nation for net in-migration growth in 2025, equal to 0.7 percent of their populations. Other states with the highest net migration in 2025 included Idaho and Maine.

Graphic source: Placer AI as of December 2025

Generally speaking, the states listed above offer a mix of relatively low housing costs, relatively low population density and traffic congestion, desirable lifestyle amenities, and opportunities for income growth.

On the flip side, Vermont lost 0.4 percent of its population from 2024 to 2025, continuing a migration reversal of 0.2 percent from the prior year. The state saw population growth of 0.8 percent and 0.5 percent in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

Among the nation’s six most populous states, Florida was the only one to see accelerating net in-migration in 2025, attracting new residents at a rate of 0.2 percent, up from 0.1 percent the prior year. Texas slowed from 0.1 percent net in-migration in 2024 to a rate that was essentially flat in 2025.

Data shows Nevada saw growth of just 0.02 percent from 2024 to 2025:

Graphic source: Placer AI as of December 2025

In the Mountain West, only Washington state saw less growth than Nevada (-0.01 percent). Both paled in comparison to Arizona’s 0.14 percent growth rate.

Among major U.S. metros, Phoenix led the in-migration pack for the last three years. All other major metros saw a decrease all three years—except Houston-Pasadena- The Woodlands, Texas, which ticked up in 2023, stayed flat in 2024, and lost population in 2025.

Graphic source: Placer AI as of December 2025

Data shows the quest for more affordable housing is a major driver of state-to-state migration:

Graphic source: Placer AI as of December 2025

More Chips?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) — which makes chips used by Apple and Nvidia, among others — plans to spend another $100 billion to expand its U.S. business, including four new chip fabrication plants in Arizona.

The company earlier this year announced a $165 billion expansion that included six chip plants, two advanced packaging facilities, and a research and development center in the Phoenix area.

Population Crisis in China

China closed more than 30,000 preschools and primary schools in 2025, new data shows, adding to mounting evidence that the nation is facing a baby-making and demographic crisis. Kindergarten enrollment has been decreasing in China for years, with the number of registrations falling by about 25 percent between 2020 and 2024.

Though Beijing is seeking to boost fertility rates and scrapped the country’s infamous one-child policy in 2016, the rate of live births per woman has fallen to just 1.0, well below the average in Asia.

Data source: China’s National Bureau of Statistics

Graph source: CNN As of 2024

Another challenge: Chinese citizens over the age of 60 now account for more than 20 percent of the nation’s population (1.4 billion people). UN projections show that if China's birth rate does not increase, residents aged 60+ will make up half the population by 2100.

Data source: China’s National Bureau of Statistics

Graph source: CNN, as of 2024

Related news: As of January 1, China began charging a value-added tax on condoms and other contraceptives.

FIFA Win

Spain prevailed against Argentina in the finals on Sunday, but there was another big winner: The 2026 FIFA World Cup was the most lucrative sporting event in history. It is projected to add $9 billion to FIFA’s coffers when all accounts receivable post.

The 104-match event was the first time all 48 FIFA teams have competed on the world stage, up from 32 teams four years ago thanks to aggressive league expansion. More teams and games mean more ticket sales, ad sales, and FIFA content sold to broadcasters eager to attract viewers.

Game ticket prices ranged from $60 to more than $10,000, with the median price of admission topping $900, according to TicketData.

AI-driven Occupation Changes

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects that information security analysts, actuaries, operations research analysts, and computer and information research scientists will see job growth of at least 19.0 percent between 2024 and 2034.

The number of software developers is projected to grow by 15.8 percent—an increase of more than 267,000 jobs, the largest raw number increase among Bureau of Labor Statistics-tracked occupations.

Graph source: BLS as of June 2026

Data supporting the graphic was created by the BLS Employment Projections program, which drew from multiple government data sources (January 2023—June 2026)

Car Calculations

Data and graph source: Census Bureau, as of 2023 survey data

Car Making

Toyota and Volkswagen have reigned globally supreme since 2020 when it comes to car making. Hyundai has moved up:

Graph source: Visual Capitalist as of 2025

Data for 2000-2025

Government Debt Ranking

Japan, Singapore, and Sudan have the highest debt among the world’s nations, as a share of GDP, and the U.S., China, and Japan hold the highest-value debt.

Source: Visual Capitalist as of April 2026

Hightower partner and wealth management advisor Mike PeQueen discusses how to consider a debt-to-GDP ratio in relation to the value of debt.

Government debt can and does differ considerably depending on whether it is measured in dollars or assessed value relative to the size of the country’s economy. Note that Singapore’s debt value is $1.1 trillion — 13^th in the Visual Capitalist ranking — but its debt-to-GDP ratio is 172 percent, placing it second only to Japan’s.

At $40.7 trillion, the U.S. is projected to hold the world’s largest stock of government debt in 2026. The figure exceeds the combined debt of China, Japan, the UK, and France. When it comes to debt-to-GDP, the U.S. is ranked 9^th (126 percent).

Content is King

The creator economy is lucrative for those atop the rankings:

Graphic source: Visual Capitalist

Data source: Forbes

As of 2025 (figures rounded)

Forbes estimates the world’s 50 highest-earning creators made a combined $1.02 billion between March 2025 and March 2026.

On the Horizon

MarketWatch calendar:

The event came on the heels of the White House’s publication of two executive orders expressing support for accelerating the development of a quantum workforce and for fast-tracked R&D in quantum computing, quantum-enabled sensors and networks, and quantum communications and cryptography.

Diagram of a quantum computer

Source: McKinsey & Company As of April 2023

A 2023 report by consulting firm McKinsey & Company identified four U.S. industries most likely to enjoy early economic benefit from advances in quantum computing: automotive, chemicals, financial services, and life sciences.

The estimated potential economic value across those sectors by 2035: $620 billion to $1.27 trillion (shown in the lower right corner in the McKinsey infographic below).

Source: McKinsey & Company As of April 2023

Meet George Jetson

For those of you old enough to remember watching episodes of The Jetsons, the prospect of flying cars and busy sky hubs was a futuristic fantasy you probably thought you wouldn’t live to see.

Hope for checking that box on your high-tech bucket list lies with the billions being spent in the global race to develop, test, and manufacture electric vertical takeoff and landing craft (eVTOLs). Recent developments include:

• Billionaire developer Stephen Ross and Archer Aviation are mapping out “vertiports” in the Miami metro area.

• A luxury condo developer in L.A. is promising a penthouse with a private landing pad (at the bargain price of $78 million).

Breaking News Sources

A recent Pew Research Center survey looked at the ways U.S. adults receive news and information—and three shifts stand out:

• News organizations remain first but are less dominant. In 2018, 54 percent of Americans turned first to a preferred news organization, compared to 36 percent in 2025.

• Search is now a major entry point. The share turning first to search engines rose from 15 percent in 2018 to 28 percent in 2025.

• Social media plays a larger role, especially for younger adults. Among adults under 30, 31 percent turn to social media first for breaking news, compared with 6 percent of adults 65 and older.

One of the most common things Americans associate with being a good news consumer is a sense of skepticism or discernment, Pew found. One-in-five adults mentioned it in their responses.

Source: Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted Dec. 8-14, 2025

Housing Bill Update

A federal measure passed on July 11, aimed at addressing the nation’s housing affordability crisis, was the first major housing bill enacted since the 1990s. Its 60 provisions are regulatory, including:

• Streamlining environmental impact reviews

• Creating new HUD frameworks intended to persuade cities to allow developers to build smaller homes on smaller lots in some areas

• Creating builder incentives intended to increase housing supply

• Reducing the cost of construction, including allowing multi-unit buildings to contain just one, rather than two, staircases (possible because of fire safety improvements to building materials)

• Creating easier pathways for homebuyers to acquire financing, including encouraging lenders to issue small-dollar mortgages (those less than $100,000)

• Providing options for low-income rural renters whose federally funded mortgages have expired

• Limiting the ability of private equity firms to acquire and operate single-family homes as rental properties (survey data shows that PE and institutional investors account for about 2 percent of all single-family rentals in the U.S.)

Critics of the measure have noted its reforms do not address the primary source of the nation’s housing problem: millions of Americans lack the income necessary to cover a mortgage payment. More than half of America’s renters and one-quarter of all homeowners spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing, according to Census Bureau data.

Female VC

Data from Pitchbook shines a light on a stark disparity in venture capital activity for female founders and co-founders: capital for female-only firms since 2008 has been flat, while capital for joint male + female-led ventures steadily increased from 2008 to 2023 and spiked in 2025 and 2026:

Source: PitchBook as of June 2026

This graph shows the venture capital (the line) vs. deal count (the bars) trend since 2008 for female co-founded firms (click here for a larger view):

Source: PitchBook as of June 2026

Deal counts:

Source: Pitchbook, as of June 2026

Deal counts and total capital invested by state show Nevada with $1.5 billion invested across 276 deals as of June 2026 (click here to see scroll-over map data for each state):

Source: Pitchbook Data for 17 years ending Q2 2026

Brown Bag v. HUD HQ

Two restaurants and a party supply store that operate near HUD (Department of Housing and Urban Development) headquarters in Washington, DC, are suing the agency over its plan to relocate to Virginia.

The plaintiffs claim that HUD’s authorizing statute requires it to be located “at the seat of government” and that the agency’s allegedly illegal exit from L’Enfant Plaza could cause “irreparable harm” to their businesses.

One of the plaintiffs, a restaurant called Brown Bag that has operated in the neighborhood for more than 10 years, stated in the lawsuit that its April and May revenues were down about 20 percent compared to last year, following news of HUD’s relocation.

The legal challenge could get the courts involved in — and further slow — what’s become a long battle over the agency’s decision to transfer about 3,000 employees into an office in Alexandria, Virginia.

(Note: Congress hasn’t yet approved the move.)

HUD has been headquartered in a Marcel Breuer-designed office building in L’Enfant Plaza since 1968.

USPS

In recent testimony before the Senate, Postmaster General David Steiner said, “The bottom line is that we are out of cash.” Brookings researchers took note and decided to dig into 40 years of USPS-gathered data on which American households still use the “regular” mail and which rely on it most.

Graph source: Brookings Data from FY 1987 to FY 2025

Advertising mail has not only held the largest share but has also increased, from 59 percent of household mail in 2010 to 62 percent in 2025.

Transactions mail—first-class bills and financial statements—fell from 24 percent to 14 percent, the biggest shift in the data. Correspondence increased from 10 percent to 15 percent, and the volume of packages grew.

This graph shows the 2000-2024 trend for bill payment methods:

Graph source: Brookings as of 2024

(Note: The difference in the share of mailed bill payments per household is not the same as the difference in raw numbers. In 2000, 94 percent of America’s 105.5 million households (99.2 million) paid at least one bill by mail; in 2024, 43 percent of 132.2 million households (56.8 million) did.

It will surprise no one at Fact Pack that Americans aged 65 and older use the mail to pay bills at a much higher rate than those under age 45.

Graph source: Brookings, data from FY 2015 through FY 2025

As many American households have moved routine financial transactions online, e-commerce has moved physical goods into the mailbox. USPS packages sent remained about the same, but packages received per household nearly doubled over the past decade, from 25 per year in 2014 to 48 by 2024.

Graph source: Brookings, data from FY 2014 through FY 2024

Physical media, such as books, music, video, and photos, made up nearly half of received packages in 2010, a number that fell to just 10 percent by 2023, displaced as those categories moved online. Now, consumer goods are the name of the shipping game:

• Clothing and footwear more than doubled their share, from 11 percent in 2010 to 23 percent in 2023.

• Health and pharmaceutical products grew from 9 percent to 15 percent.

• Home goods, cosmetics, and kitchen products now account for 19 percent.

Graph source: Brookings, data from FY 2010 to 2023

(Methodology note: The Household Diary Study is USPS’s record of how American households use the mail. Each year, the Postal Service recruits a representative sample of roughly 5,000 households and asks them to log every piece of mail they send and receive over a set period. The survey has been conducted every year since 1987.

Global Population

One birth every 8 seconds and one death every 11 seconds equals a net planetary gain of one human every 28 seconds.

Source: Census.gov as of 7/12/26 at 19:47:19 UTC

• 7,222 new business registrations in June

• 89,000 new business registrations for the fiscal year ending in June

• 38,621 business renewals in June

• 451,927 active registered businesses in Nevada as of June

• A 3.8 percent year-over-year increase (+$226.6 million) in preliminary business sales revenue for the fiscal year ending in June.

Small Business Employment Index Stagnation

Despite robust new business and business sales revenue data from the Secretary of State, the Nevada chapter of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) June Jobs Report showed the Small Business Employment Index declined slightly — for the fourth consecutive month.

The Index registered at 100.2 in June, down 0.1 from 100.3 in May.

On the plus side, 62 percent of small business owners reported hiring or trying to hire in June (up 7 points from May), and hiring plans in the next three months also rose (+2 points from May). However:

• 51 percent of small business owners reported finding few or no qualified applicants, highlighting a persistent labor market mismatch.

• A seasonally adjusted net of 28 percent of owners reported raising compensation, the lowest reading of the year.

• A net 17 percent (seasonally adjusted) said they plan to raise compensation in the next three months.

U.S. Hiring Slows

Hiring slowed in June even as the unemployment rate fell, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 (after downward revisions to the prior two months), and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2 percent — as did labor force participation.

As of 6/30/26

Rental Report

Zillow’s latest data shows a May improvement:

• 74 percent of rental listings on Zillow in May were affordable to a median-income household, the highest share ever recorded for May.

• The share of listings priced below $1,000 per month was up to 8.8 percent, also the highest for any May since 2022.

• Nine out of 10 rentals are considered affordable in Raleigh, Austin, Louisville, and Salt Lake City.

• The typical rent nationwide is up just 2 percent from a year ago, according to the Zillow® May Rental Report.

The gains were most pronounced in the multifamily rental segment, where 79.4 percent of May listings on Zillow were affordable to a median-income household. Nearly half of single-family listings on Zillow (47.3 percent) were affordable in May.

Not every market is becoming more affordable, however:

• Pittsburgh renters saw an affordability decline, down to 77.6 percent of listings affordable, compared to 80.3 percent a year ago.

• In San Francisco, where rents are up 7.1 percent annually, the fastest pace among major markets, the share of affordable listings fell from 69.8 percent last May to 68.4 percent this year.

Affordability metrics in some of the country’s big metros:

Source: Zillow, as of May 2026

Affordability metrics for a selection of medium-sized metros, including Las Vegas:

Source: Zillow As of May 2026

Arena Land Acquisition

In case you missed it while traveling for the holiday, Las Vegas Diamond Arena and Chetak Development, Inc., have purchased the final piece of land required for their proposed NBA arena, according to a company announcement last week.

The 3.03-acre parcel is located across from Mandalay Bay at Las Vegas Boulevard and Four Seasons Drive, adjacent to several private jet terminals and an undeveloped parcel that could be developed into a private jet terminal with VIP aviation access to the venue.

“The terminal is being designed to connect directly to the arena through an underground tunnel intended to provide arrival access for the NBA teams, the entertainers, the corporate executives, and the VIP guests,” according to a spokesperson who spoke with Fox5 News.

Project rendering as of June 2025

The proposed arena would feature 21,212 seats and rely on adding a few hundred VIP parking spaces and on approximately 18,000 existing nearby parking spaces.

Also in the Arena Mix

A proposal to build a 63-acre multi-purpose district on South Las Vegas Boulevard, which would host a 25,000-seat NBA Las Vegas team arena and a 50,000-seat soccer and special-events stadium, was announced by Starr Vegas Development in April.

The company said it had raised $6 billion in funds for the $10 billion project, described as a year-round sports venue with an arena dedicated exclusively to NBA, WNBA, and NCAA events, along with a 40-story tower housing a state-of-the-art broadcast production studio, luxury condominiums, and premium office space.

The proposed site also would include a casino and sportsbook, hotels, a rooftop stadium venue, and a swim-friendly multi-use amphitheater with a 160-foot LED screen.

Image source: @lv8ventures on Instagram

Starr Vegas Development is partnered with Larry Canarelli and Krusrow K. Roohani, two of the largest landowners in Clark County.

2027 WWC to Las Vegas

The World Wrestling Championships are heading to the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas in September 2027. The event will serve as the first Olympic qualifier for the 2028 L.A. Games and marks the first return of the international event since 2015.

The World Championships season will kick off in Amman, Jordan, from August 2 to 8, 2027. Two weeks later, Novi Sad, Serbia, will play host to the U20 World Championships. Subsequent events will happen in scenic Porec, Croatia, and Brasov, Romania.

Poll: Americans Are Grateful to Be Americans

A new national survey from the Cato Institute, conducted in collaboration with Morning Consult ahead of July 4th, found that nearly half (46 percent) don’t know what America’s 250th anniversary commemorated — but 86 percent are grateful to be Americans.

A little more than half (53 percent) correctly answered that the anniversary was a celebration of the Declaration of Independence's adoption.

As of 6/26/2026

The survey showed that 58 percent of Americans believe no political party should be trusted with too much power, and 72 percent think the president should have to obey Supreme Court rulings even when he disagrees.

However, a significant portion say they are willing to “bend the rules” when it suits their political position: Four in 10 Americans said they think it’s acceptable for a president they support to “stretch” the Constitution to get what they want.

Economically speaking:

• Capitalism (52 percent) was viewed somewhat more favorably than socialism (37 percent).

• Gen Z respondents were more supportive of socialism (53 percent) than capitalism (45 percent).

• The survey found the “Democratic Socialist” label helps or harms a candidate about equally at the voting booth. While 39 percent said they’d be more likely to vote for a Democratic Socialist candidate, 40 percent said they’d be less likely (and 22 percent weren’t sure either way).

• Democrats (61 percent) and Gen Z (51 percent) reported they’d be likely to vote for a candidate with the Democratic Socialist label.

Regarding cultural and economic changes believed necessary to help the country succeed, replies from respondents showed support for the following priorities:

• Reducing corruption and special interest influence (31 percent)

• Lowering the cost of living (31 percent)

• Having better political leaders (28 percent)

• Having a stronger economy (27 percent)

• Having respect for the Constitution (21 percent)

• Improving Americans’ personal ethics and character (20 percent)

• Stronger families and communities (19 percent)

Most valued freedoms:

As of 6/26/2026

View more survey results here.

(Methodology: The Cato Institute 2026 4th of July Survey was designed and conducted by the Cato Institute in collaboration with Morning Consult, which collected responses online June 25–26, 2026, from a national sample of 2,253 Americans 18 years of age and older. The margin of error for the survey is ±2 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. Restrictions were put in place to ensure that only the people selected and contacted by Morning Consult may participate. A more comprehensive description of the methodology can be found in the topline and crosstab documents.

Full TOPLINES and METHODOLOGY for the survey can be found HERE, and CROSSTABS can be found HERE.)

Sea Change

More than 80 percent of global trade by volume occurs in shipping lanes, shared waterways, and the planet’s oceans — a fact recently illustrated by the results of Tehran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Washington, D.C.’s blockade of assorted Iranian ports.

In decades past, economic sanctions did not include stopping cargo ships. They were enforced primarily through financial and administrative frameworks – bank messaging and transfer systems, insurance markets, and shipping registries.

In recent years, as targeted countries have developed evasion tactics and covert networks, scholars note the U.S. and its allies have increasingly applied a more direct form of pressure: boarding ships at sea suspected of carrying sanctioned cargo.

U.S. operations have included identifying and boarding Russian shadow fleet tankers, a fleet consisting of vessels with hard-to-trace ownership structures that use frequent flag changes and private insurance to evade blockades, including the one in Venezuela.

The tanker Boracay that (allegedly) belongs to Russia’s so-called shadow fleet

Source: AP/Mathieu Pattier

John Calabrese, a scholar at the School of Public Affairs, Middle East Institute, American University, says Iran has also developed evasive tactics and networks, using stealth ship-to-ship transfers, flag-hopping, and veiled intermediaries to export oil, largely to Asia — especially China.

According to a 2025 S&P Global estimate, the global shadow fleet, at nearly 1,000 tankers, amounts to between 17 percent and 18.5 percent of total global tanker capacity.

The EU is in on the trend, as well. Examples:

• Finland’s boarding of a Russian tanker dubbed the Eagle S.

• Germany’s seizure of Russia’s Eventin.

• Estonia’s detention of the flagless, stateless Kiwala.

For more on the global expansion of maritime interdiction and the applicable international legal framework, check out Calabrese’s July 6 piece in The Conversation.

U.S., Canada, UK Top Global Rankings Report

As the global economy continues to shift, activity remains relatively strong across established markets and regions as well as some developing economies, according to the latest UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) data and Stanford University’s AI Index Annual Report for 2026.

Global foreign direct investment (FDI) reached $1.6 trillion in 2025, and global corporate AI investment more than doubled (+129.9 percent) to $580 billion in 2025, with private investment accounting for 60 percent of the AI total.

Summarized in a Business Facilities ranking that measured more than 60 categories, including inbound FDI inflows, capital investment, announced greenfield projects, and cross-border investment activity, the top growth hubs after the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom were:

• Japan

• Germany

• China

• France

• Italy

• United Arab Emirates

• Australia.

The United States also topped the Business Facilities ranking for AI Growth Hubs — an evaluation that considered factors that include capital investment, number and success of startups, and development of machine learning models — followed (in order) by:

• China

• United Kingdom

• Canada

• France

• India

• Germany

• Israel

• Australia

• Saudi Arabia.

Read more about the rankings here.

Profits

Over half of the 30 most profitable companies worldwide are based in the United States, with $1 trillion in annual profits, and Alphabet is the world’s most profitable company as of 2026.

Saudi Aramco’s $99 billion in profits is more than any other non-American firm worldwide.

Source: Forbes Global 2000 list (based on most recent 12-month financial results) As of May 2026

On the Horizon

MarketWatch calendar:

• Travel Surge: Nevada ranks #43 out of all U.S. states and territories, according to a Luxury Link analysis for Fourth of July travel demand—with arriving flights increasing +13.4 percent during Independence Day week compared to the rest of the year (based on 2023 to 2025 flight data from the U.S. Department of Transportation).

• Flight Cancellations: Flight cancellations in Nevada increase +24.9 percent during the Fourth of July travel period.

• Long Delays: Flights delayed more than three hours increase +63.7 percent at Nevada’s airports during Independence Day week.

Luxury Link fully analyzed domestic airline traffic data for 2023 and 2025 to examine where Americans are flying for the Independence Day holiday and how the increased demand affects flight reliability, on average.

• Scheduled flights rose 16.3 percent during the week ending July 4^th.

• Cancellations jumped 121.5 percent.

• Flights delayed by more than three hours increased by 74.6 percent.

Data source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation

Graph source: Luxury Link as of 2025

Data for 2023-2025

Outdoor recreation meccas Alaska (+51.7 percent), Maine (+50.9 percent), and Montana (+49.9 percent) experienced the nation’s biggest holiday-related increases in arriving flights for the holiday weekend from 2023 to 2025.

Washington state, Oregon, South Dakota, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, West Virginia, and South Carolina also saw increases over that period.

Graphic source: Luxury Link as of 2025

Data for 2023-2025

Top 20 destinations:

Graphic source: Luxury Link as of 2025

For those confused as to why Fresno, CA, ranks high, keep in mind its proximity to King’s Canyon National Park (55 miles east), Sequoia National Park (75 miles southeast), and Yosemite National Park (95 miles north).

The following Bloomberg graphic highlights data for Yosemite and confirms that the highest visitor volume occurs from Memorial Day week through the week of July 4th:

Source: Bloomberg as of 2025

America’s Biggest Synchronized Fireworks Extravaganza

The Las Vegas Strip will host the largest synchronized Independence Day fireworks display in the country starting at 9 p.m. Saturday. Pyrotechnics will simultaneously ignite on nine major resort rooftops along the Strip, accompanied by coordinated red, white, and blue building lighting and a digital marquee takeover.

Photo source: Visit Las Vegas

The Census Bureau Survey Says…

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2025

Southern Nevada Tourism

LVCVA’s May 2026 Year-over-Year (YoY) report was mostly positive:

Source: Las Vegas Visitors & Convention Authority, as of May 2026

Source: Las Vegas Visitors & Convention Authority, as of May 2026

Demographic Trends

Over the past 250 years, American society and culture have shifted from an agricultural economy and republic of 13 colonies to an urban and economically diverse country comprising 50 states and several territories.

In 1970, only 4.7 percent of the U.S. population was foreign-born, a result of the 1924 Immigration Act, which restricted immigration from nations not in the Western Hemisphere. That law was overturned in 1965, and in the years since America’s 200^th birthday in 1976:

• The ratio of Hispanic Americans has increased from 4.4 percent to about 20 percent of the population (as of 2024).

• In the same period, the Asian American population has grown from less than 1 percent to 6 percent.

• The percentage of white Americans in that span has decreased from 83.5 percent to 56.3 percent.

Data source: Pew Research Center

Graph source: GZERO As of 2024

Nevada Gaming Report

Nevada’s nonrestricted gaming licensees reported a total gaming win of $1,388,340,168 for May. It represents a 7.43 percent increase over May 2025, when licensees reported a gaming win of $1,292,262,538. For the fiscal year (July 1, 2025, through May 31, 2026), statewide gaming win has increased by 2.76 percent.

From May 2025 to May 2026:

• The Las Vegas Strip saw a 7.41 percent increase in gaming win.

• Clark County decreases included Downtown Las Vegas (-4.16 percent) and Laughlin (-5.18 percent).

• Washoe County saw an increase of 8.34 percent, while Reno gaming win increased 11.07 percent.

• North Lake Tahoe gaming win was down 10.74 percent. South Lake Tahoe saw an increase of 23.49 percent.

Source: Nevada Gaming Control Board As of May 2026

Reno Company Boosts Valuation

An $110 million investment in Reno-based SendCutSend (SCS)—which specializes in the custom laser cutting of steel—has resulted in a $1 billion valuation. According to a Nevada Business magazine article, the company plans to invest over $1.25 billion into manufacturing growth over the next five years—$1 billion toward domestic jobs and materials and $250 million toward expanded facilities and manufacturing hubs.

This Reddit thread contains a wealth of information about the laser steel-cutting industry and SCS in particular.

Switch Expansion

For those who may have missed the news, Las Vegas-based technology infrastructure and data company Switch received approval from the Clark County Commission to expand: a new data center facility at the Southwest Valley Mega Campus, east of Edmond Street and north of Warm Springs Road.

Switch representatives told commissioners the project, described as the LAS 19 facility, would include a 56,000-square-foot building. A Fox 5 report has more details.

Related: Thirty-eight states are offering incentives for data center development.

Source: National Conference of State Legislatures As of July 2025

Yes, Nevada is one of them:

Source: National Conference of State Legislatures As of 2025

Politics and Powdered Wigs

The nation’s 250^th birthday has inspired dozens of online articles filled with interesting facts and asides, including a piece on who the funniest Founding Father was at History Facts. Excerpt:

If you picture America’s Founding Fathers as solemn men with stern faces and powdered wigs, you’re getting only half the story. In reality, these figures spent much of their lives writing impassioned letters, arguing politics, insulting rivals, exaggerating grievances, and trying to outwit one another in prose.

Humor naturally slipped into their writing, sometimes intentionally and sometimes because sarcasm can be easily employed against those who annoy us. Thomas Jefferson once argued that “ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions.”

The article provides quips and jabs from George Washington, John Adams, and, of course, provocateur Benjamin Franklin.

Source: © History and Art Collection/Alamy

As the story goes, when Franklin was a young man in Boston, he worked as an apprentice in his brother’s printing shop. His brother refused to publish any of his writing in the newspaper, so Franklin invented a fictional middle-aged widow named Mrs. Silence Dogood and slipped her essays under the door at night to submit them for publication.

The letters were witty and “scandalous by colonial standards,” including Harvard graduates described as “great Blockheads as ever, only more proud and self-conceited.” Readers loved the sharp observations, and a few men even proposed marriage.

From John, Mike, and everyone at Fact Pack HQ…

Source: Public Relations & Marketing Group

On the Horizon

MarketWatch calendar:

However, the FOMC shifted market expectations during the meeting: its revised “dot plot” revealed that 9 of the 18 participants now project a rate hike in 2026, a shift from previous expectations of a rate cut.

Consumer Spending and Labor Resilience

May retail sales data for the U.S. showed nominal sales rising 0.9 percent month-over-month, above expectations. “Control group” sales—which feed into quarterly GDP calculations—increased by 0.7 percent, driven in part by a 14 percent increase in online commerce, offsetting higher prices at the gas pump.

Source: Iris Finance on LinkedIn as of May 2026

Weekly initial jobless claims for the U.S. remained stable, falling slightly to 226,000.

Geopolitical Developments

Midweek actions by the U.S. related to the signing of a deal aimed at ending the war in the Middle East triggered an equity market rally. Gold and silver prices declined notably, and oil prices dipped, easing near-term inflation fears—for now.

Markets also showed signs of pricing in the economic implications of an upcoming meeting between the U.S. and Russia to discuss a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.

Nevada Jobs

Nevada’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.2 percent in May 2026, per the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation (DETR). Total nonfarm jobs increased by 1.8 percent over the past year.

Regionally, the Las Vegas Valley saw a slight increase in employment (+1,000 jobs) since April), while Reno and Carson City experienced minor declines.

Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Employment (Seasonally Adjusted):

• Las Vegas employment increased by 1,000 jobs (0.1 percent) since April and increased by 19,600 jobs (1.7 percent) since May 2025.

• Reno employment decreased by 600 jobs (-0.2 percent) since April and increased by 4,300 jobs (1.5 percent) since May 2025.

• Carson City employment decreased by 200 jobs (-0.6 percent) since April and decreased by 100 jobs (-0.3 percent) since May 2025.

Source: DETR As of May 2026

State Economist David Schmidt noted in the DETR release that gains in professional and business services (+2,600) and manufacturing (400) offset the loss of trade, transportation, and utilities (-1,400), including transportation jobs resulting from the closure of Spirit Airlines.

Between April and May, the state’s labor force decreased by 3,780 individuals — a decrease of 3,058 employed individuals and 722 unemployed individuals. Based on the May 2026 Current Employment Statistics (CES) seasonally adjusted numbers, there was an increase of 800 jobs in the state compared to April 2026.

Nevada’s Only Oil Refinery Revs Up

Sky Quarry Inc. has announced that its Foreland Refinery, located near Ely, Nevada, is entering its production phase, with refinery operations expected to begin in July, according to a Morning Star news release. The company reports having approximately 10,000 barrels of crude oil and in-process inventory on-site.

LVGEA Economic Development Strategy Survey

The Las Vegas Global Economic Alliance (LVGEA), in partnership with Austin-based TIP Strategies, for which Fact Pack! Co-publisher John Restrepo, Principal of RCG Economics, is a subconsultant and is preparing an Innovation Ecosystem Assessment—last week he announced a community survey that will help shape Southern Nevada’s five-year Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy (CEDS).

The federally recognized CEDS designation focuses on economic resilience and identifies priorities for job creation, infrastructure investment, and economic diversification. Economic resilience is defined in CEDS frameworks as “the ability of regions to anticipate, withstand, and bounce back from any type of shock, disruption, or stress that it may experience.”

A snapshot of Mountain West EDDs (Economic Development Districts)—a federal designation not to be confused with the CEDS designation—shows Nevada has two:

Map Source: NADO Research Foundation as of June 2026

Screenshots Source: NADO Research Foundation as of June 2026

All EDDs in the continental U.S. (color coding indicates regions):

Interactive Map Source: NADO Research Foundation

Nevada residents and stakeholders can learn more and opt to complete LVGEA’s community survey by visiting LVGEA’s CEDS page.

Business leaders, employers, and industry partners can complete the business survey here.

Hycroft Mining: We’re Looking Good

Hycroft Mining’s June 2026 Technical Report Summary for its Nevada mine projected a $4.3 billion post-tax net present value (NPV) based on a 51-year mine plan, noting that several potential value drivers were not included in the baseline economic model.

Western U.S. Delivers Seven of Top 10 Highest Income Cities

San Jose ($175,491) and San Francisco ($141,277) have the highest median household incomes among the 50 largest U.S. metros and are among the 7 highest-income metros in the West. The only Western metro with a median household income below the national median of $85,828 is… Las Vegas, which ranks 35^th in the nation.

Data sources: Census Bureau, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta As of March 2026

As for average housing and food prices, which determine whether a higher income equates to a better quality of life in a metro area:

Data source: Urban Stress Index, Numbeo, as of 2025

In Las Vegas, the cost of living is less than the national average in all categories but transportation, according to data compiled by Extra Space Storage:

As of 2025

Cost of living averages by state show Nevada, Idaho, and Utah as the best in the West, along with Wyoming and New Mexico:

As of 2025

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM)—which provides a measure of the median-income household’s capacity to afford the median-priced home at the national, metro, and metro-county levels—shows a 43 percent (median) share:

As of April 2026

The 20-year HOAM series high (since January 2005) was 45 percent, first notched in October 2023 and repeated in May, June, and July of the same year. The last time HOAM showed a ratio below 30 percent was in March 2021.

Note: HOAM accounts for monthly principal and interest costs, current mortgage interest rates, and costs associated with taxes, property insurance, and private mortgage insurance. Affordability is determined per the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) standard: a 30 percent share of income.

World’s Richest Countries

Since 2000, Ireland and Singapore have noticeably risen in the GDP per Capita rankings, and Japan and the UAE have substantially fallen.

• Ireland rose from 14th to 2nd place since 2000, with GDP per capita climbing above $140,000.

• Japan fell from #2 to #39, marking one of the sharpest declines among advanced economies.

• Nine of the world’s 15 richest countries in 2026 are in Europe.

• The U.S. has moved from 5^th to 7^th.

Data source: IMF World Outlook Graph source: Visual Capitalist As of April 2026

European Travel to the U.S.

European travel to the U.S. remains below pre-pandemic levels, with roughly 1.8 million fewer visitors in 2025 than in 2019.

• The steepest declines came from Northern Europe, including Denmark (-43 percent), Norway (-41 percent), and Sweden (-37 percent).

• A handful of countries saw growth, led by Poland (+68 percent), Albania (+57 percent), and Croatia (+52 percent).

Source: Visual Capitalist

Inflation & The Stretching of a Dollar

IMF Global Outlook

The U.S. and Spain stand out among developed nations in IMF’s growth projections through 2027:

Source: IMF As of April 2026

On the Horizon

MarketWatch calendar:

Southern Nevada visitor volume in 2025 was 38.55 million, marking a year-over-year decline of 7.5 percent and 12 straight months of declines, per Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) data.

April data from LVCVA’s executive summary shows visitor volume down 1.8 percent over last April and RevPAR down 1.7 percent:

Table source: LVGEA as of April 2026

“Build Nevada” AI Platform Launches

For those who have not yet put 2 and 2 and 2 together, the broad strokes of the Silver State’s new “Build Nevada” AI-powered platform—a partnership between the Nevada Battle Born Growth Escalator (NBBGEI) and the Nevada Governor’s Office of Economic Development (GOED)—are coming into focus.

Designed to connect founders, operators, and growth-stage companies with capital and expansion opportunities in Nevada, the platform is part of a broader state initiative to deploy $112.9 million in venture capital and lending capacity.

GOED is initially deploying $38.5 million in funding via the State Small Business Credit Initiative (SSBCI) to open immediate doors for startups seeking expansion. Opportunities on the platform range from $250,000 to over $3 million.

Target sectors include:

• Energy and electrification

• Advanced manufacturing

• Robotics, automation and drone systems

• Industrial AI and infrastructure intelligence

• Defense and industrial resilience

• Supply chain and logistics technologies

• Rural industrial growth

Notably, companies do not need to be based in Nevada to use the platform, provided they can demonstrate an actionable plan to build, hire, or manufacture within the state.

In addition to digital engagement on the AI platform, in-person meetings and human-in-the-loop programming for grantees will occur at The Oddie District—a 262,000 square foot “innovation campus, makerspace, and art park under one roof” in the Reno-Sparks metro area—according to a May article in Expansion Solutions Magazine.

Partisan Divides

As the dust settles from midterm elections, American politics remain deeply divided along partisan lines, but a new Pew Research study on political typologies reveals some nuance:

% of U.S. adults in each Pew Research typology group

Source: Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted Nov. 17-30, 2025

Though four of the groups are highly ideological, politically engaged, and overwhelmingly back one political party over the other — in the graphic, the two on the bottom left (blue) and the two on the upper left (red) — Pew’s research team concluded, “Most Americans fall into groups within a large, politically messy center – even as many of them clearly favor one party over the other.”

The Pew write-up contains descriptions of each of the nine groups, some of which are “much less attentive to politics.” Notably, the five less partisan, less ideologically driven groups make up a majority of the American public.

Illustrative graphs from the article:

Immigration policy divides groups on both the left and the right

% who say …

Source: Surveys of U.S. adults conducted June 2-8 and Nov. 17-30, 2025.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

The political diversity of the Republican and Democratic parties

% who are in each typology group

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Nov. 17-30, 2025.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

Source: Survey of U.S. adults conducted Nov. 17-30, 2025.

PEW RESEARCH CENTER

Pew found that current foreign policy flashpoints – such as Iran, Israel, and Ukraine – and broad foreign policy values split the typology groups in several ways. Some “largely track traditional partisan divides,” but others split the coalitions.

To explore those differences, read Pew’s article, “How foreign policy values and issues cut across the political typology groups.”

Curious where you fall on the Pew graphic? Take the quiz.

Fox-ROKU Deal

The announcement of yet another major media acquisition by Fox means it will soon be one of the biggest free, ad-supported TV businesses in America.

Fox already owns Tubi, the free ad-supported service with 100 million monthly users. The $22 billion addition of the Roku Channel — also free and ad-supported, and accounting for about 3 percent of all U.S. streaming viewership (behind only YouTube, Netflix, Disney, and Prime Video) — will make Fox unique in the streaming landscape.

The upshot: Amid the pay-for-service streaming wars, Fox’s move shows it believes there is a growth opportunity in free, ad-supported content.

ADWAVE summary of streaming in the U.S. as of November 2025 based on Nielsen data:

As of 11/28/25

America’s World Cup Fans

Soccer teams from six of seven continents — we’re taking bets on when Antarctica will announce a team — are enjoying enthusiastic support not only from their home countries but also from the 48 million foreign-born fans living in the U.S.

The Census Bureau has crunched the numbers, and Mexico’s 11 million U.S. residents top the top 10. The next-largest foreign-born population (about 1 million) has Korean ancestry.

Source: Census Bureau As of the 2024 American Community Survey

California, the nation’s most populous state, is the unsurprising home of the largest shares of several foreign-born populations, including those from Canada, Germany, Iran, Japan, Korea, and Mexico. Florida is next in line with high numbers of residents born in Colombia, Haiti, and Brazil.

• More than half of the Iranian-born population in the U.S. lives in California.

• Nearly half of the Haitian-born population lives in Florida.

Source: Census Bureau, as of the 2024 American Community Survey

City-wise, in Miami and the San Francisco Bay Area, more than 40 percent of residents are foreign-born. World Cup host cities stats:

Source: Census Bureau, as of the 2024 American Community Survey

Notable demographics:

• In the Miami metro area, the Haitian-born population accounts for 8.8 percent of the foreign-born.

• In the New York/New Jersey metro area, the Ecuadorian-born population accounts for about 4.8 percent of the foreign-born population

• Among Boston’s foreign-born population, 7.9 percent are from Brazil.

In the remaining U.S. host cities, including the Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston metro areas, Mexico is the top country of birth among the foreign-born population.

Source: Census Bureau, as of the 2024 American Community Survey

Visit the Census Bureau’s Foreign-Born Population page for additional information and resources.

Last, Not Least

For all who celebrate…

See more Census Bureau dad data here.

On the Horizon

MarketWatch calendar (note that Friday is report-free because of the Juneteenth federal holiday:

The agency revised March and April hiring up by a combined 93,000 jobs, marking the strongest three-month stretch of payroll growth in more than two years. Leisure and hospitality led the gains, adding 70,000 positions.

One-month change (May over April, 2026) ranked by industry:

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

ADP Jobs Report

Private sector employment in the U.S. increased by 122,000 jobs in May to 132,624,000 jobs, and average pay was up 4.4 percent year-over-year, according to the May ADP National Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration with Stanford Lab.

As of May 2026

(Note: The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measure of the labor market based on weekly payroll data of more than 26 million private-sector employees. ADP’s Pay Insights captures more than 15 million individual pay change observations each month.)

Establishments of all sizes added jobs, led by small businesses (1 to 19 employees), which added 49,000:

Source: ADP Research As of May 2026

All but two industries—Natural Resources & Mining and Information—added private sector jobs. Education and health services added the most (57,000), followed by Trade, Transportation, and Utilities:

Source: ADP Research As of May 2026

Sentiment

Consumer sentiment dropped by 10 percent in May, per the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Contributing indicators included gas prices (they are, on average, more than 40 percent higher than they were at the start of this year) and a 2.6 percent national personal saving rate in April, down from 4.9 percent a year earlier.

Shopping

Are depressed Americans seeking retail therapy? Despite the decrease in consumer sentiment, retailers including Home Depot, Walmart, and Macy’s have all reported sales growth over the past several weeks.

• Home Depot (reported May 19) — Sales increased by 4.8 percent year-over-year to $41.8 billion, with comparable sales (to April) up slightly by 0.6 percent. The numbers are notable because Home Depot experienced several consecutive quarters of sluggish or declining sales in 2024 and 2025 as consumers delayed large home improvement projects.

• Walmart (May 21) — Revenues grew 7.3 percent year-over-year to $177.8 billion, with net sales growing 5.7 percent. Growth is being driven heavily by Walmart’s grocery business and its “Everyday Low Price” strategy.

• Macy’s (June 4) — Total revenue rose 1.8 percent year-over-year to $4.89 billion, but comparable sales (to April) increased 3.0 percent — the strongest first-quarter comparable sales growth in four years.

Retail and food services trends for the prior three months (February, March, April):

Source: Census Bureau As of 5/14/26

Retail Same-Store Sales

May same-store sales increased 4.0 percent year-over-year, and the average price paid for the top 500 items in May increased 2.3 percent year-over-year, according to NRSInsights, a provider of sales data and analytics drawn from retail transactions processed through the National Retail Solutions (NRS) point-of-sale (POS) platform.

Same-store sales had increased 3.9 percent year-over-year the previous month (April 2026), and April’s year-over-year number was 1.7 percent higher than March. For the three months ending May 31, 2026, same-store sales increased 3.2 percent compared to the corresponding three months a year ago.

CoC

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has launched a “New Fight for Free Enterprise” campaign, a multiyear push “to defend, protect, and advance free enterprise” across public debate, the states, the courts, and politics. The move is backed by an anonymous $100 million donation.

Microsoft Ratepayer Protection Tariff

Microsoft has proposed a new tariff framework to the Public Utilities Commission of Nevada (PUCN) to shield residential and small-business ratepayers from the massive infrastructure costs required to support AI-driven data centers.

Under the proposal, large-load tech customers would pay a “Customer Contributed Share” for the substations and transmission lines built to serve their projects.

NV Energy Forecasts Demand Surge

Driven by the influx of large-scale tech customers, NV Energy filed its 2026 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) with the PUCN a year earlier than mandated. The utility revealed it expects to need 47 percent more energy than it had forecast just two years ago.

Data Centers

The U.S. now hosts more than 4,000 data centers, and the Department of Energy expects data centers as a whole will use as much as 12 percent of all U.S. electricity by 2028—nearly three times the consumption rate in 2023 (4.4 percent).

Virginia has far more data centers (600+) than any other state, two-thirds of which are in the D.C. suburbs. They consumed about 26 percent of Virginia’s total electricity supply in 2023.

As of June 2025

Scholars at The Conversation have drilled down into data center data from northern Virginia. Their findings:

• In Loudoun County, northwest of D.C., data center water consumption more than doubled between 2019 and 2023.

• Data centers in D.C.-adjacent northern Virginia consumed nearly 2 billion gallons of water in 2023.

Globally, data centers are projected to consume between 4.2 billion and 6.6 billion cubic meters of water annually by 2027. In the U.S., data centers already rank among the top 10 industrial water users.

Noise pollution measurements in residential areas near data centers that were the subject of residential complaints about ambient noise found levels as high as 59 decibels (dB). For context:

• 40 to 45 dB equates to a standard refrigerator or dishwasher humming or cycling

• 50 to 55 dB equates to the buzz of an electric toothbrush or electric shaver

• 56 to 59 dB equates to the noise made by an active washing machine in the room.

Fun Activity: The CDC has an interactive tool that plays the sound type and displays the decibel level of the noise source of your choice. Screenshot (lawnmower selected):

Source: CDC

Where fossil fuels are involved, environmental outputs of data centers also include air pollutants—either from day-to-day operations or during electrical outages, when enormous diesel-fueled generators kick in.

Economic factors are in play, as well. As data centers increase electricity demand, their use puts upward pressure on energy prices. A 2024 Virginia legislative report projected that the state’s typical residential electricity bill could rise by $14 to $37 per month by 2040 because of grid strain tied to data center growth — a 9 percent to 25 percent increase.

For those of you thinking that many of these harms can be mitigated through better planning and design,

• Increasing the share of renewable energy used to power data centers would help reduce air pollution and associated health harms.

• Using recycled water in targeted systems that cool individual server rows or racks rather than whole buildings can significantly reduce cooling energy demand, with some studies estimating reductions of up to 29%.

• On noise, a Leesburg, Virginia, data center reduced low-frequency tonal noise by reengineering its fan mounts.

• And on energy costs, requiring large-scale data centers to cover more of the grid costs they create could help protect residential customers from higher electricity bills.

Nevada’s Only Oil Refinery Bets on Jet Fuel

Sky Quarry Inc. (Nasdaq: SKYQ)—owner of the only operating refinery in Nevada—has signed an agreement that will shift its output to one of the fastest-repricing corners of the fuel market: sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).

Fact Pack co-publisher and HighTower wealth management advisor Mike PeQueen explains:

The economic viability of sustainable aviation fuel is being driven by recent legislation and corporate pledges. The Inflation Reduction Act introduced tax credits for SAF producers—up to $1.75 per gallon. For a small 5,000-barrel-per-day facility like Sky Quarry, such credits could substantially alter profit margins.

Major U.S. airlines have pledged to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Because electric planes will not be a thing anytime soon, the entire decarbonization strategy relies on buying as much SAF as the market can produce.

Fact Pack co-publisher and Mountain West economist John Restrepo:

Nevada borders California, which has adopted a Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and represents one of the largest markets in the world for low-carbon transportation fuels. Positioning a sustainable aviation fuel refinery in Nevada will enable the easy export of high-demand fuel directly to aviation hubs such as LAX and SFO.

The Foreland Refinery is a micro-refinery (5,000 barrels a day) located in Railroad Valley in Nye County. It was originally designed to process crude oil pumped from the small, localized oil fields in the surrounding high desert.

OPEC

Not to be outdone by a Nevada-based refinery, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) agreed Sunday to increase oil production by 188,000 barrels per day in July, marking its fourth increase in oil output targets in four months.

Net Worth at 60

Empower’s January Personal Dashboard data showed that the average net worth for an American in their 60s was roughly $1.58 million. The number closely aligns with the Federal Reserve’s 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances, which found that Americans aged 55 to 64 had an average net worth of $1.57 million.

Major caveat: Ultra-wealthy individuals skew the average. For example, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is 62 with a net worth of around $260 billion, and Melinda French Gates is 61 with a net worth of roughly $30 billion. That’s why — as this Yahoo! Finance article noted — median (midpoint) numbers are often more helpful than averages.

According to Empower data, the median net worth of Americans in their 60s is $274,564. The Federal Reserve’s 2022 survey found the median net worth for Americans aged 55 to 64 was $364,500.

Note: Net worth is calculated by subtracting all liabilities from all assets. Assets include your home equity, retirement accounts (such as IRAs and 401(k) plans), brokerage accounts, savings accounts, business ownership, and real estate other than your home. Liabilities include auto loans, credit card debt, mortgages, and other debts.

Go West, Young Man

As the nation prepares to celebrate 250 years in existence, the Census Bureau has been releasing notable historical data. This map illustrates the east-to-west shift of the mean center of the U.S. population each decade between 1790 and 2020:

Source: Census Bureau

The Census Bureau defines the mean center of population as the point at which an imaginary, perfectly flat, weightless, and rigid map of the U.S. would balance perfectly, assuming every resident were an identical weight. Mathematically, it is computed as the arithmetic mean of the latitude and longitude coordinates of all people across the country.

Because the nation’s population has consistently grown in the West and South, this point has continuously shifted westward (and a bit southward) since the first census in 1790 (when it began in Chestertown, Maryland). As of the 2020 Decennial Census, the mean center of population is in Wright County, Missouri, about 14.6 miles northeast of the nearest town, Hartville.

Mean Population Center of Nevada

Based on data from the 2020 Decennial Census, the mean center of population for Nevada is in a remote area in Nye County, just inside the secure boundaries of the Nevada Test Site) and close to a 6,6120-foot off-limits mountain called Tippipah Point.

The closest accessible town is Amargosa Valley, located roughly 30 miles southwest along U.S. Route 95, and approximately 100 miles northwest of Las Vegas.

Map created using 2020 Census Bureau data and Google AI Mode

Clark County’s population explains the Southern Nevada location; Washoe County’s population explains why the center is pulled a bit northwest.

Back in 1880, the state’s mean center was in Austin, Nevada, because early populations were skewed toward northern mining booms and Reno. Over the past 140 years, the center has traveled south across the desert by more than 100 miles.

Map created using 2020 Census Bureau data and Google AI Mode

World Cup Brackets

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will feature 48 teams, up from 32 in the previous tournament. First time appearances:

• Cape Verde

• Curaçao

• Jordan

• Uzbekistan

Italy, a four-time World Cup champion, failed to qualify for a third consecutive tournament.

Host countries:

Source: FIFA

Brackets:

Graphic source: Visual Capitalist

Upcoming matchups and, if you do not have tickets, where you can find them on TV:

Source: FIFA

On the Horizon

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May consumer price index report, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, on Wednesday. Core PPI comes out Thursday.

MarketWatch calendar:

• The NY Fed’s April Survey showed one-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.6 percent. Gas price expectations improved, but the survey revealed that the increased cost of medical care (9.6 percent YOY) and rent (6.0 percent YOY) remain primary concerns for household pocketbooks.

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all items less food and energy (on a seasonally adjusted basis) rose 0.2 percent in March. Indexes that increased in March over February include airline fares, apparel, household furnishings and operations, education, and new vehicles.

• 12-month percentage change to CPI for all items (not seasonally adjusted):

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics As of March 2026

• The indexes for medical care, personal care, and used cars and trucks decreased in March from the prior month.

• The CPI energy index increased 12.5 percent for the 12 months ending March. 12-month percentage change to CPI for all items (not seasonally adjusted) and energy (the blue line):

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics As of March 2026

• Whirlpool’s stock fell 20 percent last week. The company noted a “recession-level industry decline” caused by shoppers pulling back on big-ticket buys.

• Executives at Disney and Uber noted that Americans are still spending on their resorts and rides.

GDP

We note for the Fact Pack record the modest (2.0 percent) but better than Q4 2025 GDP growth:

As of 4/30/26

Gas Prices + Midterms = ?

As gas prices remain elevated across the U.S., Bloomberg notes that several Midwestern states are seeing the steepest increases — putting a strain on voters Republicans need in the midterm elections to keep control of Congress.

Source: Bloomberg As of May 2

In Ohio, the price of gasoline has surged 72 percent — twice the percentage increase for California.

President Donald Trump said Monday he’s seeking to suspend the federal gas tax and told CBS News he would reintroduce the tax “when gas goes down.”

A Congressional Research Service study from 2022 concluded that it is questionable whether such measures result in savings to consumers because the federal gas tax is collected at the terminal or refinery, not at the time of a retail purchase.

Currently, the federal gas tax is 18.4 cents per gallon for gas and 24.4 cents for diesel.

Balance of Power

Polymarket and other betting sites are seeing a high volume of wagers re: the balance of power in the midterms. Polymarket’s trend lines show opinions are presently leaning toward a Democratic sweep of both houses (45 percent), but there is a swath of bettors who believe Republicans will hold of the Senate (34 percent):

As of 5/11/26 at 5 a.m. PST

Resilient 1Q26 Business Growth

Shot: Revised federal data shows business investment in the U.S. surged by more than 10 percent in Q1 2026, driven mostly by intellectual property and equipment acquisitions.

Chaser: Private payroll growth in early 2026 has been 2.5 times higher than the 2025 average.

NV Small Business Jobs Report

The NFIB Nevada Jobs Report released May 7 shows the Small Business Employment Index fell 1.2 points in April to 100.4, the second month of decline.

Source: NFIB As of 4/30/26

NFIB State Director Tray Abney noted in comments that hiring remains steady, but a “lack of qualified applicants” is an ongoing challenge.

Reno’s Record Q1

Visit Reno Tahoe reported last week that taxable room revenue for Q1 2026 was $106.8 million, the highest mark in the destination’s history. The 3.3 percent year-over-year (YOY) increase was primarily driven by a heavy convention and event calendar.

• The American Bus Association Marketplace in January brought 2,800+ delegates (8,000+ room nights), and the ongoing USBC Open Championships (a multi-month handicap bowling tournament with over $5 million in prizes) is expected to generate 140,000 room nights and $84 million in economic impact by the time it wraps in July.

• Reno-Tahoe International Airport (RNO) reported a 1.5 percent increase in passenger traffic during Q1.

Bowlfest

For those curious about the annual bowling event mentioned above:

• It features three divisions based on skill level (Regular: 182+ avg., Standard: 161-181, Classified: 160 or below) to allow all levels to compete fairly.

• The tournament runs for more than 100 days, often in a different city or special venue each year, transforming arenas into massive 40+ lane bowling centers.

• The 122nd edition is being held at the National Bowling Stadium in Reno, running from March 14 to July 19, 2026.

Vegas Tech Testing

Southern Nevada notched a win in its quest to build its reputation as a “living lab.” The remote-driven EV company Vay has expanded its Las Vegas fleet to 175 vehicles, with 80 percent of riders being locals rather than tourists, signaling a shift toward real-world mobility solutions.

Risk-Sharing Program at Risk

As the White House seeks to shave spending ahead of the midterm elections, housing lenders and state agencies are less than thrilled at the wind-down of a federal program that has, as of Q1 2026, helped finance more than 56,000 affordable rentals and a total of 247,000 affordable rental homes financed or refinanced at no cost to taxpayers.

The FFB Risk-Sharing Program is used by agencies in 34 states to reduce borrowing costs at a net revenue gain for the Treasury, but the White House’s fiscal 2027 budget reportedly “projects no new commitments” for the program. Some state housing agencies have said they are already turning away new applications.

Nevada does not participate in either FFB program:

Source: HUD As of Q1 2026

Critical Minerals Processing

The U.S. is shelling out billions to secure access to critical minerals essential to modern technology, from EVs to processing chips to smartphones to military systems and weaponry. But as a just-published article in The Conversation noted, successfully leveraging domestic mineral deposits and supply chains depends on whether the U.S. can also build or acquire the required technical expertise and industrial processing systems for large-scale production.

Since the 1990s, the U.S. has lost much of its mineral processing capacity. During that period, activity shifted to China, where labor costs are lower and environmental regulations less constraining. These import graphs illustrate U.S. dependence on China and other nations for critical minerals:

Source: The Conversation As of 2023

Source: The Conversation As of 2023

Foreign dependency means the U.S. has also lost the technical expertise of decades past. Mining and mineral engineering programs produce only a few hundred graduates per year, and the number of accredited programs has declined. Additionally, many faculty members are nearing retirement.

Source: The Conversation As of 2023

Penny Wise

If you’ve seen a checkout counter sign saying the penny is being retired and asking for exact change or a chart showing whether your purchase total is being rounded up or down, you’re already aware that the penny is no longer going to be used.

Eight states have created legislation and issued guidance for retailers and consumers on how to handle penny-dependent transactions. Most of these states have either mandated or recommended that penny rounding be conducted symmetrically, rounding cash transactions up or down to the nearest 5 cents based on the final digit of the total transaction amount. (For those wondering whether these bills are a revenue grab by state governments, rounding is typically applied after sales tax has been calculated—so no.)

Recent news on what’s going on from the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) and news outlets in states where penny-wise bills have passed.

NCSL: Freshly Minted State Laws Ease Transition Away from the Penny

NCSL: With Demise of the Penny, States Prepare for Change

NBC Boston: As the penny starts going extinct, how do Mass. businesses round prices right?

NBC Miami: Say goodbye to the penny in Florida

KHON: Pennies on the way out leaves Hawaii businesses pushing for new legislation

On the Horizon

MarketWatch calendar:

We begin today’s Fact Pack by noting that Nevada is a national outlier in unemployment and job growth, the latter in both rate and raw number. The state added 34,500 jobs from February 2025 to February 2026 — a 2.2 percent growth rate and among the top 5 states for raw number. Nevada also has the 3rd highest jobless rate (5.3 percent as of February) in the nation. How do we make sense of this?

Economist and Fact Pack co-publisher John Restrepo:

The numbers suggest a combination of job market shifts, skills gaps, and in-migration. When we see strong job growth alongside high unemployment, it usually indicates a job market where expanding sectors are creating jobs, shrinking or “status quo” industries are not hiring or eliminating jobs, and new residents who have not yet found a job are adding to the unemployment rolls. All in all, Nevada might in some ways be said to be a “transition economy.”

Job gains were primarily driven by new slots in health care, business services, construction, and education. Hightower Partner and Fact Pack co-publisher Mike PeQueen:

The growth in Nevada’s top-performing sectors is part of a long-term shift. It shows that to some degree, economic incentives for new companies and large-scale investments by tech firms and energy interests are paying off.

Nevada’s health care sector continues to grow at a healthy pace, helped along by license compacts that allow out-of-state professionals to start work quickly after moving in. The state has also seen a post-pandemic entrepreneurship and new business boom, especially in professional services (legal, accounting, engineering).

All of it underlines the “transition economy” noted by John and may signal that Nevada is making noticeable strides in diversifying its economy.

Leftovers

The average U.S. household has 25 percent of its take-home income to spend on non-necessities, according to 2025 data from the Common Sense Institute.

· Households in Iowa and South Dakota have the most left after taxes and expenses (35 percent).

· States with a number at or over 30 percent include Ohio, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, Kansas, North Dakota, and Wyoming.

· States at the low end include Hawaii (9 percent), California (11 percent), and Massachusetts (16 percent)

· Nevada’s average (21 percent) is higher than

· Colorado and Arizona (20 percent) and

· Oregon (17 percent) but lower than

· Utah (24 percent)

· Idaho and Washington state (27 percent)

· New Mexico (28 perecent)

Data source: Common Sense Institute As of 2025

Notable note: The gap between top and bottom states exceeds $2,000 per month in disposable income.

Since 2019, essential expenses have risen by about $15,400 per year for the average family. Though incomes increased 30.7 percent over the same period, most of those gains were offset by higher costs:

· Shelter and utilities: +33.9 percent

· Groceries: +25.1 percent

· Health insurance: +22.8 percent

· Car insurance: +40.9 percent

· Gas: +16.5 percent

· Childcare: +39 percent

Top 10 table:

Data source: Common Sense Institute As of 2025

Roof + Food Costs = x

In which “x” varies widely:

Source: Urban Stress Index, Bureau of Labor & Statistics, Zillow As of 2025

Urban Stress Index

One of the sources of the food + housing data in the prior section has a website on which it has mapped and rated urban centers across the globe for average comfort-level or lack thereof (note the key in the lower left).

Screenshots:

Source: Urban Stress Index As of 2023 to 2025 government and institutional data listed here

The red dot north of New York is Montreal.

Miami and San Diego earned “Stretched” ratings, driven mostly by average housing costs relative to average monthly income. San Diego data from the metro’s Urban Stress Index close-up page:

Source: Urban Stress Index

As of 2023 to 2025 government and institutional data listed here

Source: Urban Stress Index As of 2023 to 2025 government and institutional data listed here

Japan, anyone? All green and comfy:

Source: Urban Stress Index As of 2023 to 2025 government and institutional data listed here

Delve into the methodology here.

Got Light Switches?

Twice as many humans do than did in the year 2000, with one exception:

Source: World Bank As of 2023

Thank You — You’re Fired

All 24 members of the National Science Board (NSB), the policymaking body that oversees the National Science Foundation, were reportedly fired on Friday — by way of an email from the White House thanking them for their service.

The now jobless scientists specialize in areas of study including astronomy, aerospace engineering, math, and chemistry.

The board was created in 1950 to advise the president and Congress on science and engineering policy, approve major funding awards, and guide the organization’s future. The Trump administration tried to cut its $9 billion budget by more than half last year. Congress opted to maintain funding.

Over the years, the institution has funded or been part of several cute little projects, including:

· Laying the groundwork for the modern internet (NSFNET)

· Fostering innovations such as Doppler radar and DNA analysis

· Enabling GPS and MRI technologies

· Advancing scanning/RFID technology (bar codes)

· Funding thousands of lifesaving kidney transplants

· Advancing quantum technologies

· Pioneering deep-sea exploration

Global Goings-On

Outside of active war zones, many supply chains look to be normalizing, but the IMF still decided to revise its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 percent (down from 3.4 percent in late 2025).

· Fertilizer production and exports remain a concern—disruptions are forecasted to drive up global food prices in Q3.

· Damage to oil and natural gas production sites in the Middle East is expected to keep EU and Asian energy prices elevated for the remainder of the year.

· Brent crude prices have been up and down thanks to the Hormuz Strait situation, causing economic volatility across the globe.

Data source: St. Louis Fed (FRED) as of April 27, 2026

As of 4/18/26

This transit source graph showing which countries are getting ships through the Strait is interesting:

As of 4/20/26

Why it matters:

Annual trade value (2025)

Price trends and effects:

As of 2025

On the Horizon

MarketWatch calendar:

Data & Dialogue About the Economy

The Fact Pack is a monthly business e-report co-authored by Mike PeQueen of Hightower Las Vegas and John Restrepo of RCG Economics, which combines important metrics relevant to business decision-makers and financial commentary on the current issues facing the economy.

· CBP said in court filings that under new tariffs, more than 330,000 importers paid about $166 billion on over 53 million shipments.

· As of April 14, 56,497 importers had completed pre-registration and were considered eligible for refunds totaling $127 billion, including interest.

Whether refunds for consumers who were billed for higher tariffs on products shipped to them from outside the U.S. will follow is unclear.

Predicting Prediction Markets

Who will walk away from the court with the NBA championship in June? Which political party will control Congress after the midterm election? Will the Supreme Court order changes to mail-in voting rules in the states?

You can bet on all that and more on any number of prediction market sites—and thanks to several lawsuits, bets are being placed on whether those markets will ultimately fall under state or federal regulatory authority.

The big question: Are prediction markets financial derivatives subject to federal law or gambling enterprises subject to state law? Reading for those interested in the latest:

· Associated Press: Prediction markets are back in the spotlight, this time because of the war in Iran

· Associated Press: Federal government sues three states over their regulation of prediction markets

· NCSL: Prediction Markets: A New Frontier in State Regulatory Authority

Southern Nevada Housing Market

Data from Las Vegas Realtors (LVR) shows the median price for an existing single-family home in Southern Nevada has reached $495,000, a 6.5 percent increase from April 2025.

Sales volume is down 12 percent year-over-year, likely because of high mortgage rates (hovering near 7.1 percent). As a result, inventory is at a low of just 1.8 months of supply.

The graph shows the Median Price (in thousands), Sales Volume (units), and Inventory (months) for March 2026 (blue bars) and March 2025 (red), from left to right.

Data source: Las Vegas REALTORS As of March 2026

Average Rents in 100 Cities

Data source: Zillow

Graphic source: Visual Capitalist As of February 2026

Mountain West Bank Strength

The Federal Reserve’s April 15 Beige Book and the Q1 2026 earnings previews for regional (Twelfth District) banking giants—including Zions Bancorporation and Western Alliance Bancorporation—showed that while real estate has softened, the Intermountain West financial framework is stable.

· Sector Performance —Commercial real estate and financial services were described as “steady” or “stable,” with strength noted in industrial properties and data center projects—key drivers in the Nevada and Arizona corridors.

· Credit Conditions —While nationwide banks noted “signs of consumer financial strain,” regional banking activity was said to be “steady” with “stable to up moderately” loan demand.

· Western Alliance Bancorporation — The rating of the parent company of Bank of Nevada, the primary high-growth regional bank for the Southwest U.S., was affirmed by Fitch as ‘BBB” with a Stable Outlook. Fitch cited their specialized business model and the fact that their asset quality has remained resilient despite higher interest rates.

· Zions Bancorporation—In their pre-earnings guidance and recent analyst updates, Zions highlighted a classified loans ratio that declined in late 2025 (to 3.91 percent), revealing that “toxic” levels of commercial debt seen in coastal cities such as San Francisco hasn’’t materialized in its Mountain West portfolio.

Lithium Loop

On April 16, the U.S. Department of Energy announced a conditional loan commitment of $2.1 billion for Nevada North LLC, a major lithium processing facility in Northern Nevada. Cheerleaders for consolidating and strengthening Nevada’s EV battery supply chain were reportedly pleased, as the project is estimated to create 1,500 temporary construction jobs and 500 permanent jobs.

4/20

Every year on April 20, people who smoke marijuana celebrate an unofficial holiday. The tradition is said to have started with some high school students in Marin County, California, who, starting back in 1971, would meet each day at 4:20 pm to smoke and used “420” as code for marijuana.

More lore: Later, one of them went on to work with the Grateful Dead, who helped popularize the term. Today, half of Americans live in states where cannabis is legal, and industry revenue is approaching $300 million.

As of April 17, 2026

15 states have passed medical marijuana via the ballot box or legislation since 2015, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Utah, and Nebraska. Texas last year expanded its existing laws and is now counted as a medical marijuana state.

As of 2025

Nevada’s cannabis industry saw overall sales decline 9 percent to $757.7 million statewide in the 12 months ending June 30, 2025, causing a proportional drop in tax revenue flagged for the State Education Fund.

Cows vs. Humans

The cost of beef has risen to new highs in the U.S. in recent months: The average price of all uncooked ground beef in the U.S. was $6.86 per pound in March — 48 percent higher than five years ago.

America’s cattle inventories currently hover around a 75-year low, with the Department of Agriculture reporting that there were just 86.2 million cattle and calves in the U.S. as of January 1st, marking a 7.4 million reduction in herd size since 2021.

All in all, the nation’s ratio of people-to-cattle has effectively doubled from 1980 (when the cattle headcount was 111.2 million) to 4-to-1 at the start of 2026.

As of January 2026

Oil Price Winners

Federal data shows that the price of a barrel of crude oil at the primary hub in the U.S. was $66 a barrel in late February and $101 a barrel on April 13. Consumers have seen the spike reflected in higher gas prices.

Nevada:

Source: AAA As of 4/20/26

Source: AAA As of 4/20/26

U.S.:

Source: AAA As of 4/20/26

Rising gas prices are an example of an Economics 101 supply-and-demand matrix.

Graph source: The Conversation as of 4/20/26

The obvious beneficiaries of higher oil prices are countries and companies that extract, refine, and sell oil, minus the governments and operators that are unable to do so—such as Saudi Arabia and its currently inoperable Ras Tanura oil refinery. Other winners:

· West Texas — Companies operating in the Permian Basin, the largest oil field in the U.S., are enjoying a windfall gain. The money largely flows to company owners—shareholders—through dividends, debt reduction, and company-backed purchases of its stock. More capital also enables reinvestment in drilling and production infrastructure.

· The North Sea—A mix of multinational and government-owned companies drill in the cold waters between the UK and Scandinavia. Private shareholders are the primary beneficiaries of profits from increased oil prices. Taxes on oil and gas profits also benefit governments and public expenses.

· Russian oligarchs—Russian oil is subject to economic sanctions by many industrial nations (a G7 price cap restricts Western tankers and insurers from handling Russian oil priced above $60 per barrel), but Russian oil producers benefit from high oil prices because China and India are steady buyers. Turkey, the UAE, and Egypt also import Russian oil and oil by-products. Brazil, Singapore, and Saudia Arabia (to name a few) also buy Russian-produced oil products.

Supporting data as of March 2026

Top buyers of Russian crude oil (in purple) and other fossil fuels by Euro:

Supporting data as of March 2026

Additionally:

· Russia’s massive fleet of government-owned oil tankers is insured by Russian and Chinese providers, enabling Russian firms to operate outside G7 constraints.

· Some Russian oil is inexpensive to extract—as little as $10 to $15 per barrel in some Siberian fields—so selling at $50 or $60 a barrel still pencils out.

· The Russian government has adjusted its tax code to ensure that oil companies remain profitable even when prices are lower, prioritizing the flow of cash into the state treasury over corporate dividends.

Note: The U.S. Treasury Department on Friday issued a waiver to extend an existing sanctions exemption for Russian oil already at sea through May 16. A Treasury spokeswoman said that ongoing U.S.-Iran talks contributed to the extension, stating that “as negotiations accelerate, [the] Treasury wants to ensure oil is available to those who need it.” Russian special envoy Kirill Dmitriev said the extension will affect about 100 million barrels of Russian oil, the same amount as the first waiver.

Busiest U.S. Airports

LAS is no. 5:

Data Source: FAA

Graph Source: VERONI / Visual Capitalist As of 2025

Note: Some of the busiest passenger airports do not appear on this list because larger aircraft can carry more people per flight, reducing total movements even at high-traffic hubs. O’Hare’s lead comes down to frequency: Over a full day, its every-37-seconds pace adds up to more than 2,300 flights, well ahead of any other U.S. airport.

CATO Immigration Study – Part II

Cato’s recent study on the fiscal effects of immigrants has been getting attention from all parts. This week’s focus is on how much immigrants increase government revenues: From 1994 to 2023, immigrants generated roughly $100,000 more in taxes per capita than the average U.S.-born person—about 17 percent more over the period.

As of February 2026

In 2023, CATO estimates that immigrants paid $1.3 trillion in taxes while receiving $761 billion in benefits—a net fiscal surplus of over half a trillion dollars. CATO also notes that though immigrants tend to earn lower hourly wages, they work more hours, so their per-capita earned income is higher than the average American’s.

Immigrants generated more per capita than the U.S.-born for every type of government revenue except federal and state non-tax revenues and supplemental medical insurance payments (which are tied to participation in Medicare, which immigrants use at a much lower rate).

Source: CATO As of September 2025

Important note: CATO has issued an advisory explaining their estimates about the tax effects of immigrants are conservative because—unlike the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)—they “do not include any of the indirect effects that immigrants have on the productivity of U.S. workers, which increase their income and tax payments.”

Muskland

Musk-owned companies bought approximately one in five Tesla Cybertrucks registered in the U.S. in the fourth quarter, according to Bloomberg, citing data from S&P Global Mobility. Breakdown:

· SpaceX accounted for 1,279 of the 7,071 total registrations (18 percent).

· 60 went to xAI (now part of SpaceX), Neuralink, and The Boring Company (approximately 0.5 percent).

Total Cybertruck sales represented roughly $100 million in value and were so meager they forced Tesla to scale back production. Musk’s companies have continued to buy them: 158 Cybertruck purchases in January and 67 in February.

In 2019, the conventional thinking was that Cybertrucks would likely do great in the U.S.:

As of October 2019

Chaser

Tesla’s 2025 federal tax bill was once again $0, Reuters reports. Losses and green energy credits helped, but Tesla also leaned on a corporate maneuver: offshore profit-shifting. As reported by Sherwood News, by “routing intellectual property rights through paper-only subsidiaries in the Netherlands and Singapore, Tesla effectively parked $18 billion in profits overseas between 2023 and early 2025.

It saved Tesla an estimated $400 million in U. S. taxes.

World Pop Projections

The 10 fastest-growing countries are all in sub-Saharan Africa, several large advanced and post-Soviet economies are projected to shrink meaningfully, including China, and India will continue to grow, per UN data graphed by Visual Capitalist:

Data source: UN

Graph source: Visual Capitalist As of 2025

On the Horizon

Stacked-up MarketWatch calendar for the week:

Data & Dialogue About the Economy

The Fact Pack is a monthly business e-report co-authored by Mike PeQueen of Hightower Las Vegas and John Restrepo of RCG Economics, which combines important metrics relevant to business decision-makers and financial commentary on the current issues facing the economy.

See what’s happening on our social media sites!

Related: A separate report on March 30 noted that 71 percent of Nevada startups cited “finding funding” as their top challenge, with many owners indicating they were hesitant to apply for traditional debt financing.

Water vs. Wealth

A legislative meeting last week on March 25, 2026, brought Nevada’s “water vs. wealth” debate to the forefront: Lawmakers and stakeholders discussed the massive water and power demands of expanding data centers in the nation’s driest state.

After the meeting, John L. Smith penned a biting opinion piece in the Nevada Independent titled, “Is the driest state in the U.S. prepared for data centers’ unquenchable thirst?” Smith described the meeting as a “painfully polite” series of presentations where experts brought “dandy charts and graphs” but offered few concrete answers. He also gave a nod to Assemblyman Howard Watts as what he described as one of the few “alert and studied minds” asking tough questions.

Economist and Fact Pack co-publisher John Restrepo on What's Afoot:

There appears to be a growing desire by some lawmakers and business leaders to move away from the tax-abatements Nevada has traditionally doled out toward a more rigorous regulatory oversight model.

For those who want to learn more, The Nevada Independent (via reporter Eric Neugeboren): published a comprehensive “Indy Explainer” on March 29 titled, Have data center tax breaks helped Nevada’s economy? The gist of the piece: (1) Nevada has doled out $457 million in tax abatements over the last decade. (2) Water-hungry data center facilities often create only 10 to 50 permanent jobs—making per-job tax break incentives quite costly for the state.

Related: April Corbin Girnus reported on the latest energy forecast from NV Energy projecting it will need 50 percent more energy than it thought just two years ago, primarily to feed the “AI rush.”

At least nine other states are considering data center moratoriums.

Gas Prices

As of Monday, the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded in Nevada hit $4.91—a spike of more than $1.00 in one month, largely attributed to regional instability and global tensions.

Source: AAA

Source: AAA As of 3/30/26 at 1 pm

Priciest counties:

Source: AAA As of 3/30/26 at 1 pm

Nevada counties with the lowest gas prices:

Source: AAA As of 3/30/26 at 1 pm

Corporate Cuts

IGT (International Game Technology), a major player in the Nevada gaming sector, announced it is cutting its global workforce by 10 percent (about 700 employees). IGT recently completed a $6.3 billion merger with Everi Holdings. The combined entity is now private under Apollo Global Management.

As part of the deal, IGT’s gaming business was merged with Everi’s financial technology segment, and IGT’s former lottery division was spun off into a separate public company, Brightstar Lottery.

Hightower partner and Fact Pack co-publisher Mike PeQueen:

The layoffs, while not particularly severe, indicate that Nevada gaming companies may be experiencing pressure as the first quarter of 2026 comes to a close.

Gaming is a consumer discretionary industry. Higher tariffs raise construction costs for operators and production costs for suppliers. Government shutdowns and geopolitics impact consumer travel and spending for operators. Sticky inflation keeps interest rates high, suppressing debt refinancing at a time gaming companies have higher debt-to-EBTIDA ratios than the market average.

AI Job Losses

This site is logging AI-driven job losses. As of March 23:

Source: The Alliance for Secure AI

Trend:

Source: The Alliance for Secure AI As of 3/30/26

March layoffs:

Source: The Alliance for Secure AI As of 3/30/26

FinCEN Advisory

The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) issued an Advisory and press release in cooperation with the FBI on Monday urging U.S. financial institutions to be vigilant about health care fraud schemes targeting government health care benefit programs, including Medicare and Medicaid. Key clip from the advisory:

…an overview of how fraudsters, organized crime groups, and, increasingly, transnational criminal organizations are targeting government health care benefit programs. It also highlights money laundering typologies and red flag indicators to help financial institutions identify and report suspicious activity.

Along with today’s advisory, FinCEN has proposed a new rule to pay whistleblowers 10 percent to 30 percent of collected penalties for actionable tips on fraud and money laundering. The proposal followed an Executive Order issued on March 6 targeting “scam centers” and cyber-enabled fraud run by foreign criminal networks.

The reason for the crackdown: a 330 percent increase in health care fraud reporting between 2020 and 2025.

• Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs) and domestic fraud rings are automating and “industrializing” fraud schemes, using the U.S. financial system to launder money through the purchase of real estate and luxury goods.

• Fraudulent claims for unnecessary or non-existent medical care siphon billions of dollars from federal government coffers.

In January, FinCEN took “decisive action” against fraud rings in Minnesota that stole more than $300 million from federal child nutrition programs.

Other Fraud

Fraud and scamming are way up, in general:

Source: FTC annual fraud report (2024)

In 2024, the FTC reported $12.5 billion in losses because of fraudulent activity — an increase of $2.5 billion over 2023

• Approximately 449,032 individuals experienced credit card fraud, where someone opened a credit card account using their information.

• 40 percent (approximately 2.6 million) of all reports to the FTC were to report fraud, followed by identity theft at 18.0 percent (1.1 million).

• 291,807 adults ages 30-39 and 187,195 adults ages 20-29 were victims of identity theft.

Source: FTC annual fraud report (2024)

Notably:

Source: FTC annual fraud report (2024)

Media Consumption Survey

In 2020, the Cooperative Election Study began asking a survey question about television network news.

In the past 24 hours, which of these networks did you watch?

Respondents choose from a list of all three major broadcast news stations (ABC, CBS, and NBC); the big three 24-hour news channels (CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News), PBS; and “other”” People are instructed to check all that apply.

Results from the 2020, 2022, and 2024 datasets:

Survey data collected after mid-term and general elections in 2020, 2022, 2024

As you can see, the variations from year to year for most networks show no big shifts. The share of Americans who are watching NBC News is basically 33-35 percent of the country. The numbers for ABC are a bit higher but are close (36-38 percent).

The variation for CNN was slightly more distinct. In 2020, about 39 percent of those surveyed said that they had watched the news network in the prior 24 hours. The number dropped to 35 percent in the 2022 and 2024 data.

The more intriguing data from the survey relates to media consumption in 2024 by generation of the respondent.

Survey data collected after mid-term and general elections in 2020, 2022, 2024

Notable data:

• About 55 percent of the Silent Generation and 44 percent of Boomers watch Fox News (the blue line on the graph) every day—and so does a majority of Gen Z.

• MSNBC (the black line) fared comparatively poorly across all segments, which tracks with Nielsen ratings data.

• A high share of Gen Z (more than 55 percent) is watching CNN every day, while only around 25 percent of Boomers are doing the same.

Now for religious segmentation:

Survey data collected after mid-term and general elections in 2020, 2022, 2024

Takeaways:

• PBS scored poorly. No large group is much above 15 percent. (Buddhists are a fun outlier for the network.)

• Black Protestants are more likely to watch ABC, CBS, or NBC compared to other Christian groups.

• No big claims can be made about Catholics vs. Protestants. The big 3 networks are in the 30—40 percent range across the board.

• Among white evangelicals, 20 percent watch MSNBC and 62 percent watch Fox News—a gap of 42 percentage points.

• For non-white evangelicals, the gap is a single point.

• Outside of the Latter-day Saints, CNN saw substantial losses across the entire religious spectrum.

Graph showing Fox News vs. MSNBC viewership by religion:

Survey data collected after mid-term and general elections in 2020, 2022, 2024

Notable notes:

• Among white evangelicals, Fox News has a 49-point advantage.

• Orthodox Christians are at +32 for Fox News.

• White Catholics clock in for Fox at +29, followed by Mormons at +27.

Nielsen ratings track with all of the above findings: Fox News has 13 of the 15 most watched news programs in the U.S. The following graph combines generation and religion in the Fox vs. MSNBC matchup:

All data from 2024

The graphs show how polarized media viewing is among older Americans and how the religious divide plays into the numbers. If Silent Generation and Boomer viewers are Christians, they prefer Fox news. If they are non-religious, they favor MSNBC.

The trend begins to break down a bit with Gen X and then really starts to collapse among Millennials. Atheist/agnostic Millennials favor MSNBC over Fox News, but only by 13-14 percent. For Gen Z atheists/agnostics, the margin drops into the single digits.

###

Data released last Wednesday showed U.S. producer prices in February rose at the fastest pace in seven months, revealing notable spikes in the wholesale costs of food and energy.

Real estate fell 4 percent, health care decreased 3 percent, and consumer discretionary dipped 2.7 percent. Technology, industrials, and communication services also declined.

Related: The conflict with Iran—aka Operation Epic Fury, which began on February 28 with joint U.S.-Israeli military operations—is now past the three-week mark.

Source: Brittanica.com As of 3/23/26

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee held the fort on monetary policy steady amid uncertainty around the “implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy.”

Fact Pack co-publisher Mike PeQueen with an explainer on the war’s effects on the global economy:

The war is taking a big toll on global travel and trade. Iranian attacks on urban centers, including airports and hotels, have stranded hundreds of thousands of residents, tourists, and American citizens living overseas.

Shipping lines have been rerouted to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, many to ports in Oman and UAE where cargo is being transferred to feeder vessels and trucks, resulting in 7-to-14-day delays compared to standard regional delivery times. For vessels that use the Gulf as a midpoint passageway between Asia and Europe, the required detour around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa is adding 10–15 days of extra sailing time. Roughly 20 percent of the world’s petroleum flow is currently “on the water” but unable to reach its destination.

Air cargo has seen a 40 percent spike in demand as companies attempt to bypass sea delays— especially for high-value electronics and medical supplies.

All in all,the crisis has created a “tale of two cities” dynamic: economic ghost towns within the Persian Gulf region and congested and overwhelmed hubs just outside of it. Major inland ports such as Jebel Ali in Dubai are dealing with a sharp decline in movement, leading to surging storage costs and imbalances (empty containers stuck where they aren’t needed).

The economic consequences are being felt through increased food and energy prices and insurance. Brent crude surged past $120 per barrel in March, driving U.S. gasoline prices up an average of 23 percent in the first three weeks of the conflict. Spring planting delays—the Gulf region usually produces about 25 percent of the world’s urea- and nitrogen-based fertilizers — are projected to drive up global food prices by late 2026.

Map of Suez and Cape of Good Hope shipping routes to illustrate Mike’s point about cargo delays:

Map source: The Conversation Created 12/21/23

Cargo container buildup:

Source: DC Velocity

Warfare

The price points of war are changing—namely, the price of offense (drones, rockets, cyber) is substantially lower than the cost of defense. So notes Bruce Mehlman in a post on his Age of Disruption Substack page.

More:

Attackers will readily lose scores of drones if one reaches its target, whereas defenders fail if they don’t stop them all. The maths don’t math:

U.S.-made Patriot air-defense missiles have been largely successful in stopping Iranian Shaheds and ballistic missiles. But using $4 million rockets to destroy $20,000 drones illustrates a problem that has haunted Western military planners since early in Russia’s war on Ukraine: The cheap weapons can chew up resources meant for much more complex threats. (Bloomberg)

Watch for ongoing investment in lower-cost alternatives by innovative & nimble defense tech players.

Infographic from the post:

Weaponizing the U.S. Dollar

Also from Mr. Mehlman’s post:

Graphic source: MUFG Bank Capital Markets report As of October 2025

Nevada News

The last week has brought several significant updates to Nevada’s economic landscape, particularly regarding energy infrastructure and the “prediction market” legal battle. In case you missed it:

• Energy Shift: NV Energy & Lake Tahoe—In a major move, NV Energy notified regulators that it will stop supplying power to the Lake Tahoe region (some distributed by Liberty Utilities) starting next year. NV Energy cited “unprecedented” demand driven by the growth of data centers in Nevada, stating they must prioritize their own resource needs. Liberty Utilities will have to find new energy sources, though they will reportedly retain rights to use NV Energy’s Greenlink Nevada transmission infrastructure (once it is completed).

• Legal Blow to Prediction Markets—On Friday, a Nevada judge issued a 14-day restraining order against the betting platform Kalshi. The Nevada Gaming Control Board argued to the court that Kalshi was offering “unlicensed” sports, entertainment, and election bets. A follow-up hearing is scheduled for April 3 to determine whether the ban will be extended.

U.S. Real Estate Stats

Before we get to Zillow’s adjusted forecast for the coming 12 months, a quick review of February real estate numbers:

• The average U.S. home value was $361,371.

• Home values were 0.4 percent higher than in February 2025.

• The average monthly mortgage payment on a U.S. home was $1,738, assuming a 20 percent down payment (and excluding taxes and insurance). That number was 7.7 percent lower than 12 months earlier.

Inventory

• There were 1.12 million homes for sale nationwide in February.

• Active inventory was 5 percent higher than a year earlier.

• Inventory rose 0.4 percent from January.

Trend Lines for Number and Value of New Listings (2023-2025 and Jan. 2026)

Source: Zillow

Competition

• Homes took a median of 28 days to go pending a sale in February. That was four days longer than a year earlier but 19 days less than January.

• The share of listings with a price cut in February was 20.3 percent. That was down 1.3 percentage points from a year earlier and down 1.7 percentage points from January.

Rents

• The average rent nationwide was $1,895, according to the Zillow Observed Rent Index. That was 1.9 percent higher than a year earlier and 0.4 percent higher than January.

• 39.2 percent of rental listings on Zillow offered a move-in incentive or concession in February. That was 1.9 percentage points lower than a year earlier but 0.3 percentage points higher than in January.

Local data can always be found on Zillow’s market explorer.

Home Price Forecasts

Zillow has revised its 12-month estimates for U.S. home prices, forecasting they will rise 0.5 percent in the period ending February 2027. The number is a downward revision from the 0.9 percent year-over-year forecast published last month.

Map source: Lance Lambert at Fast Company

Data source: Zillow’s 12-month forecast published March 2026

Bottom of Form

Among the 300 biggest U.S. metro-area housing markets, Zillow expects the largest average home price increase from February 2026 to February 2027 to occur in these metros:

• Rockford, Illinois (+5.1 percent)

• Syracuse, NY & Atlantic City, NJ (+4.6 percent)

• Knoxville, TN (+3.9 percent)

• Rochester, NY; Green Bay, WI; Appleton, WI (+3.8 percent)

• Wausau, WI & Morristown, TN (+3.7 percent)

• Janesville, WI (+3.5 percent)

• Norwich, CT (+3.4 percent)

• Vineland, NJ & Pottsville, PA (3.3 percent)

Zillow’s forecasts for Nevada:

Nevada maps source: Lance Lambert at Fast Company

Data source: Zillow’s 12-month forecast published March 2026

Zillow expects the biggest home price decline from February 2026 to February 2027 to occur in these metros:

• Houma, LA (-7.0 percent)

• Lake Charles, LA (-4.5 percent)

• New Orleans, LA (-3.8 percent)

• Austin, TX (-3.6 percent)

• Alexandria, LA (-3.2 percent)

• Lafayette, LA & Beaumont, TX → (-3.0 percent)

• Chico, CA (-2.9 percent)

• Shreveport, LA → (-2.8 percent)

• Denver, CO (-2.6 percent)

• Boulder, CO (-2.5 percent)

• San Francisco, CA & Punta Gorda, FL (-2.4 percent)

• Santa Rosa, CA & Vallejo, CA (-2.3 percent)

Generally speaking, the Sunbelt is seeing the most housing market weakness, along with select Mountain West and California areas.

North American Tribal Lands Snapshot

Once upon a time, more than 500 tribal nations spanned the continent, 347 in the contiguous 48 states in the U.S.:

Source: @bretchapman on Twitter/X

Close-up of the Southwest region: