ES

Main focus for tomorrow is 7633 marking off yesterday’s VAL and excess. Below and looking for an immediate continuation lower. Hold and we may just stay rotational back towards the upper end of yesterday’s main distribution 7649 or VAH 7661. This will serve as the line in the sand for sellers with its close proximity to the prior balance low and shelf of said balance. Main target in the case of an immediate follow through becomes 7588 - 92, an area buyers may look to step in.

Above 7633, target 7649 and 7661. Continued strength above and target 7675 - 80.

Below 7633, target 7608 and 7588 - 92. Continued strength below and target 7572 and 7550.

NQ

Main focus for tomorrow is 29070 - 100 marking off yesterday’s VAL and lower end of the main distribution. Below and looking for an immediate continuation down through yesterday’s low and the prior balance low 28960s and possibly continuation down towards some larger down side targets. Acceptance back above and looking for tomorrow to be more rotational back towards 29210 - 225 which will be the line in the sand for the sellers.

Above 29070 - 100, target 29210 - 225. Continued strength above and target 29285 then 29355.

Below 29070 - 100, target 28965. Continued strength below and target 28860 then 28770s.

Today’s Executions

A phenomenal overnight session following the failed breakout.

Swung a position during the pop to end the previous day and continued to add to it overnight. Really wanted to hold my position for the main lower targets but yesterday’s end of day spike back above levels made it tough. Buyers could have stepped in at any time up against 29440 - 450 or even 515 and they did make an attempt. Hence I was trimming into those targets.

NQ briefly traded over levels but I felt fine with it as long as ES stayed below their spike at 7704 which they did for the most part.

Continuation setup on a pullback during the RTH up against the prior balance VPOC 280s. Added confluence with the 200 on the 5 and weekly VWAP 20 - 30 points above as well.

Only issue here what that I was quick to take the whole position off with both ES and NQ attempting a reclaim of levels and coming down to some AVWAPs which had worked earlier during the RTH session.

Quick Thoughts for Tonight/Tomorrow

Move through the prior balance complete so the failed breakout trade is done. Could it now lead to a breakdown? Sure. With rates and oil continuing to climb amidst the war headlines, I think this stays rotational to down until the end of the week.

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ES

Main focus for tomorrow is 7701 - 04 marking off yesterday’s spike base as well as the upper most shelf of the prior balance. Above and buyers can look past yesterday’s possible failed breakout and attempt trading back into Friday’s range to resume the breakout. Failure against it reinforces the failed breakout scenario and gives us another rotation down towards the lows of the prior balance. Also using yesterday’s VAH and upper end of the main distribution 7693 use as a last resort for buyers and help navigate the action down below. Main target for sellers in this case would be balance lows and likely slightly lower into the prior ATH and gap.

Above 7701 - 04, target 7714 - 20. Continued strength above and target 7745 - 50.

Below 7701 - 04, target 7693. Acceptance below and target 7680. Continued strength below and target 7670, 7650, then 7638.

NQ

Main focus for tomorrow is 29490 the prior balance high near Friday’s VPOC and settle and 29515, yesterday’s spike base. Acceptance above this and buyers look to resume the breakout. Failure to do so and acceptance back into yesterday’s range 29435 - 450 confirms the failed breakout which started Sunday night.

Above 29490 and 29515, target 29700. Continued strength above and target 29750 and 29925 - 945.

Below 29490 and 29515, target 29435 - 450. Acceptance below and target 29390 and 29285. Continued strength below and target 29215 then 29025 - 040.

ES

Main focus for tomorrow is 7714 - 20 marking off the prior balance highs and the lower end of Friday’s range. With the failed breakout possibly in play, buyers must reclaim this to resume the breakout. Preferably want to see the response up against this during RTH to gauge sentiment to start the week. Acceptance below and looking for a rotation back through the rest of the balance towards the lows. Use the shelf 7701 to confirm this.

Above 7714 - 20, target 7745 - 50. Continued strength above and target 7765 and 7780 - 87.

Below 7714 - 20, target 7701. Acceptance below and target 7680. Continued strength below and target 7770 and 7650.

NQ

Main focus for tomorrow is 29440 - 490 marking off the prior balance highs as well as the lows of the last two RTH sessions. Large range so may have to work with some other confluences such as moving averages or AVWAPs to fine tune an entry. Buyers need acceptance above this to resume the breakout after back testing the prior balance highs on Friday. Failure to do so gives us a failed breakout and a rotation back down towards the lows. With tonight’s ETH holding the prior balance VPOC, the reclaim looks promising for now but need RTH to confirm.

Above 29440 - 490, target 29700 and 29750s. Continued strength above and target 29925 - 945.

Below 29440 - 490, target 29410. Acceptance below and target 29285 and 29215. Continued strength below and target 29025 - 040 and 28965.

ES

Main focus for tomorrow is 7723 - 29 marking off the lower end of the prior balance as well as yesterday’s VAL. Buyers want to defend this area to avoid risking a failed breakout. We already got a retest of levels at the open yesterday and subsequent tests will only make it weaker. Hold above and looking to keep it rotational within yesterday’s range and looking for upside continuation past 7745 marking off yesterday’s VAH.

Above 7723 - 29, target 7745. Acceptance above and target 7765. Continued strength above and target 7780 - 87.

Below 7723 - 29, target 7714 and 7701. Continued strength below and target 7680, 7770, and 7649.

NQ

Main focus for tomorrow is 29680 marking off yesterday’s spike base. Above and looking for an immediate continuation higher towards the upper end of the prior balance 29930 - 950. Below and likely to keep it rotational within yesterday’s range down towards 29530 VAL and 29480 - 490, the lower end of the prior balance and the most recent balance high. A level buyers must defend to avoid a failed breakout which would initiate another leg down to the lows.

Above 29680, target 29750 then 29930 - 945. Continued strength above and target 30050 - 080.

Below 29680, target 29635, 29530, and 29480 - 490. Acceptance below and target 29410. Continued strength below and target 29285, 29215, and 29020 - 040.

ES

Main focus for tomorrow is 7714 marking off the lower end of the prior small balance we are now above as well as a recent pivot high. We are now breaking out of a five day balance. The bulk of the prior balance starts 7701 which will serve as the line in the sand. I say this but as a bull off of these lows, I do not want to see the gap filled and prefer to see buyers defend 7714 or the lower end of the prior balance above that starts 7729 - 31. If tomorrow’s RTH opens much higher, this may become the main focus for tomorrow.

Above 7714, target 7729 - 31. Acceptance above and target 7744. Continued strength above and target 7765.

Below 7714, target 7701. Acceptance below and target 7680 and 7669. Continued strength below and target 7649 and 7638.

NQ

Main focus for tomorrow is 27480 - 500 marking off the balance high and the lower end of the prior balance above us. Acceptance above and buyers looking for a rotation back through that balance towards 29930 - 950. Failure to hold here could lead to a failed breakout. The upper end of the most recent five day balance starts 29410s which is already holding so far tonight. Acceptance back below not a good sign for buyers and potentially gives us the failed breakout scenario. Though we have yesterday’s settle around the VPOC at 29285, acceptance back into this balance would not be good going into the end of the week when we still have Jackson Hole.

Above 29480 - 500, target 29675 and 29750. Continued strength above and target 29925 - 950.

Below 29480 - 500, target 29410. Acceptance below and target 29285 and 29215. Continued strength below and target 29025 - 040 and 28965.

ES

Main focus for tomorrow is 7769 and 7701 marking off the outer most edges of the four day balance. Using yesterday’s VAL and VAH 7680 and 7691 to held navigate this range. Expecting rangebound within until otherwise. Just need to be cautious of failures and ensure moves outside of this get followed through. Failure to do so will just lead to another rotation.

Above 7691, target 7701. Acceptance above and target 7714. Continued strength above and target 7729 - 31, 7744 and 7765.

Below 7680, target 7669. Acceptance below and target 7649 and 7638. Continued strength below and target 7608 and 7590.

NQ

Main focus for tomorrow is 29215 marking off yesterday’s VAL as well as the lower most shelf of the four day balance. Can also include down to the LVN at 29190. With the P shape profile of the four day composite, acceptance below this can initiate the next leg lower. Looking at the same composite, buyers need acceptance above 29410 and 29480 - 500, the lower end of the prior balance to shift the tone.

Above 29215, target 29285. Acceptance above and target 29410 and 29480 - 500. Continued strength above and target 29675 and 29750.

Below 29215, target 29025 - 040 and 28965. Continued strength below and target 28665 and 28400 - 445.

Today’s Executions

Great day for me, primarily the ETH session with the NQ longs. I did get stopped out my original position which I swung but re-entered a tad lower 030s and added more to the position back above 080 which was the prior session’s VAL. I noted the possible pop with the failure from sellers to initiate anything below last week’s excess on both ES and NQ. Hence I kept targets far and only started trimming into the 250s.

The only big RTH trade I took was shorts on ES up against 7700. Only had the confidence to do so with the important upside targets getting hit during the ETH and fading back below levels.

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ES

Main focus for tomorrow is 7669 near yesterday’s VAL and last Thursday’s spike base. Below likely leads to a breakdown towards the prior ATH and gap. Buyers hold it and they have a chance to keep it rotational to possibly back up. I say this because of today’s profile and lack of sellers beyond last week’s excess. With the ETH holding this and drifting higher, the focus for RTH may shift up towards yesterday’s VAH 7682 or last Friday’s inside day low at 7677. Acceptance above and looking for a move back through the inside day towards 7701 and 7714.

Above 7669, target 7677 and 7682. Acceptance above and target 7701 and 7714. Continued strength above and target 7729 - 31.

Below 7669, target 7649 and 7638. Continued strength below and target 7610.

NQ

Main focus for tomorrow is 29260 - 290 marking off the lower end of the two day balance from last week. Acceptance above would end the OTFD on the daily and possibly get some more buyers involved. A complete move takes us back towards 29410 possibly 29480 - 500 but remember, this is the line in the sand for sellers to avoid a much larger move on the weekly. If below, we likely stay rotational around yesterday’s range back down towards the VAL and lower end of the main distribution 29080. Acceptance below leads to the next leg down.

Above 29260 - 290, target 29410 and 29480 - 500. Continued strength above and target 29675 and 29750.

Below 29260 - 290, target 290145 and 29080. Acceptance below and target 28965 then 28665.

ES

Main focus for tomorrow is the inside day high and low. Primarily the low at 7677 now with ETH opening lower. Sellers want to see a break and follow through to continue the move down likely towards the prior ATH and gap. They were in full control last week after defending gaps and shifting value lower each session. A lack of follow through could allow buyers to step in and shift the momentum but remember, they still need acceptance back above 7730 to turn it into anything meaningful on the higher timeframe.

Above 7677, target 7701 and 7714. Acceptance above and target 7729 - 31. Continued strength above and target 7744.

Below 7677, target 7669, 7649, and 7638. Continued strength below and target 7608 then 7590.

NQ

Main focus for tomorrow is 29285 and 29410 marking off the edges of the two day composite. Thinking rotational within until otherwise. With sellers stair stepping value lower, leaning more towards a breakdown but need to see follow through to target the gap and shelf below. Buyers still need to find acceptance back above 29480 - 500 back into the prior balance to shift the tone.

Above 29410, target 29480 - 500. Acceptance above and target 29675 and 29750. Continued strength above and target 29925 - 945.

Below 29285, target 29025 - 040 and 28965. Continued strength below and target 28665.

ES

Main focus for tomorrow is yesterday’s spike base at 7669. Two sets of single prints above us that buyers must be cautious of. Only back into yesterday’s main distribution should they find any comfort 7694. Acceptance below yesterday’s spike should mean an immediate continuation lower towards the prior ATH and gap.

Above 7669, target 7677 - 80, 7688 - 91, and 7694. Continued strength above and target 7715 then 7729 - 31.

Below 7669, target 7649 and 7638. Continued strength below and target 7608 then 7589 - 92.

NQ

Main focus for tomorrow is 29285, yesterday’s VAL. Acceptance below and sellers look for an immediate continuation higher. Hold and and we remain rotational within yesterday’s value area. Buyers would need acceptance back above 29380 - 410s and end the OTFD in hopes to end the week back above 29480 - 500, the key level from the prior week long balance.

Above 29285, target 29380 - 410s and 29480 - 490. Continued strength above and target 29535, 29675, and 29750.

Below 29285, target 29025 - 040 and 28965. Continued strength below and target 28665.

Today’s Executions

A really solid day of trades last night and today. Only two small losses across ES and NQ. Definitely a missed opportunity on the short off 750s and the follow through off the AVWAP.

Covered swing short ahead of the 450 - 480 level and got long right at the KOSPI open. Unfortunately couldn’t hold the runners and did not attempt a rebid. With the move off the key zone on NQ, I was looking for long opportunities at the open. Waited until we approached yesterday’s VAL and shelf 560 - 570s for a long but only caught up to the AVWAP which proceeded to dump over 200 points rather quickly. With the zone being weak, I didn’t attempt a long of it until we reclaimed. I ended up cutting that long after seeing a boatload of absorption but relentless selling.

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ES

Main focus for tomorrow is yesterday’s spike base 7713. Sellers keep it below and the imbalance to the downside continues. No big levels for me below until the gap gets filled so target the left over single prints and small shelf. Back above and buyers have a chance to at least keep it rotational ahead of tomorrow’s minutes. For continued upside, buyers need to find acceptance back above 7727 - 30 and take out yesterday’s highs.

Above 7713, target 7727 - 30. Continued strength above and target 7753 and 7766.

Below 7713, target 7706 and 7687 - 93. Continued strength below and target 7668 and 7650.

NQ

Main focus for tomorrow is 29450 - 480 marking off the lower end of the prior balance. ETH already got a nice reaction up against it but buyers failed to keep it above yesterday’s VAL. Possibly another test of during RTH but I would be careful. Acceptance below it takes us back down towards the balance lows 29240 - 280 prior to getting into the gap.

Above 29450 - 480, target 29570. Acceptance above and target 29685 and 29750. Continued strength above and target 29930 - 945.

Below 29450 - 480, target 29240 - 280. Continued strength below and target 29025 - 040 and 28965.