First as preface, recall that only a week and a half ago we had reported that Ukraine was in the process of unveiling a massive new terror campaign against Russian civilian airports:

It came from this Atlantic story:

Tonight, Zelensky has committed to his promise by announcing the new provocation campaign in a direct address:

Note the very serious direct threat below, in two parts:

One thing that becomes absolutely certain now, is that the CIA director’s visit to Moscow obviously had something to do with this. There may have been multiple angles to his visit, but we are now left to assume this was the main end-all-be-all reason: to deliver a final warning to Russia: “If you do not stop finishing off Ukraine’s infrastructure, a new unprecedented terror campaign against your airports will shut down all travel to your key cities.”

The only question that remains is whether the CIA is in on it, or whether they were genuinely warning Russia about Ukraine’s intentions. Well, that may be a rather academic and unnecessary question, after all.

The first visit by a sitting CIA head to Russia since 2022 prefiguring the launch of a major new offensive against Russian airports is certainly not to be taken as a “coincidence”.

There are no such coincidences.

A final warning was delivered to Russia, and now we begin a new phase of the conflict.

Zelensky’s 40-day special operation failed and the only choice he was left with is to escalate to a new degree of “discomfort” for Russian civilian life.

For his part, during today’s SCO summit presser in Bishkek Putin already levied a counter-threat to Ukraine, stating that he has authorized a “massive” new campaign of strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure:

Putin: "In response to the Kiev regime's continuing attacks on civilian infrastructure and on the fuel and energy complex... ...the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have been given instructions to prepare and carry out massive strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities"

Putin was asked specifically about the new airport threat as well, to which he said Russia will “find a response”, after also stating:

"This is a declaration of state terrorism. Kiev is asking for negotiations to resume, asking for face-to-face meetings — but we don't negotiate with terrorists" - Putin on Zelensky's latest statement threatening civilian air traffic in Russia

One of the other telling developments of the saga has been the seemingly coordinated nature of Germany’s new initiative to prepare its own escalations against Russia due to an airport false flag.

It seems too far fetched to be a ‘coincidence’ that Russia is being framed for attacking German airports with explosive drones only days before Ukraine announces a massive operation to shut down Russia’s own airports. There are clear hints of an orchestrated campaign happening here, which is nothing more than Phase 2.0 of the Ukrainian-Western plan to foment socio-political dissent in Russia and stoke an uprising against Putin.

As per usual, however, Ukraine will likely bear the greatest costs and pain of this plan after Russia retaliates in some tit-for-tat fashion. The only difference here is, Ukrainian airports have already long ceased operations, which means the blowback must necessarily be asymmetrical in nature—thus Putin’s hints about figuring out some response.

One thing is clear, the previous Phase 1.0 failed, and now Ukraine is being brought to its knees as Putin has increasingly been forced to go “gloves off”.

One of the reasons Ukraine has no choice but to escalate is because its previous campaign of strikes grew progressively less effective, for reasons Putin explained:

In short, Russian refineries have started to protect themselves in various ways, including putting up large anti-drone netting and metal structures over the most sensitive portions. This will grow to the point where Ukraine’s strikes will become nearly useless, and only further escalation will give Zelensky the needed dopamine hit.

Ultimately, RWA had the correct line of reasoning for this:

The closer Ukraine gets to its end, the more drastic the terror actions will become.

The most dangerous part of all this, is that Russia may at one point feel these escalations are coming not from Kiev, but from London and elsewhere. This is why Putin was asked today if the UK can be struck by a Russian retaliation:

This is why the recent coordinated campaign to stir escalations between Russia and Europe was cooked up—the elites pulling the strings want Russia to be cornered into facing no choice but to strike Europe so that NATO is “forced” to respond in unison as a last desperate hope:

This is precisely what the latest WSJ piece argues:

That Russia will increasingly be forced to consider striking Ukraine’s “protected rear”, which is Europe, after Russia obliterates virtually everything else of any value in Ukraine proper.

Russia faces a fundamental asymmetry as it seeks to beat Ukraine into submission with intensifying airstrikes on shopping malls, power stations, ports and other infrastructure. Kyiv can rely on a secure hinterland beyond its borders—its European neighbors—for economic resilience and for military logistics.

The Kremlin, whose refineries, ports and defense industries are also under attack by Ukrainian missiles and drones, has no such backup. Hits to Russia’s militarized economy translate more directly into damage to the country’s ability to keep the war going.

This lopsided geopolitical setup offsets, to a significant degree, Russia’s advantage in firepower. It has also become the key reason driving what Western officials say is a widening Russian campaign of sabotage, hacking and other hybrid operations aimed at intimidating European leaders and voters.

This is now the last remaining register of the war: to transition it from a purely Ukrainian proxy fight, to one with direct European involvement.

Russia is unlikely to take the bait because it has proven the ability to counter everything the West can cook up, despite it often being after major damage is done. But that damage is reparable, and Putin will likely bank on the knowledge that Russia can recover from any nasty surprises while plying its disciplined campaign against its Ukrainian foe.

That being said, there are always unforeseen wildcards and black swan events that are possible: Ukraine could hit a nuclear plant, the Kremlin itself, or do some other exceedingly nasty attack which could force Putin’s hand. But recall, Russia has already suffered the Crocus terrorist attacks, which killed nearly 200 civilians and had the clear finger print of Ukrainian and Western intelligence. It would be hard to imagine an attack worse than that one which would force Putin’s hand in some incalculable way.

But you never know.

All we can say is that as Ukraine faces its most desperate hour, expect more nasty “Pandora’s box” surprises to be unleashed on Russia.

Share your thoughts below.

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

We have long seen that much of “serious” Western analysis has been based on posts from Twitter. It started as far back as the highly classified ‘Pentagon leaks’ from a now-jailed Massachusetts National Guard airman, which listed loss figures for both Russia and Ukraine based on shoddy OSINT and laughable official Ukrainian numbers.

It gave us our first ever glimpse into how the Western establishment is misjudging the war based on a total lack of information hygiene. Another ‘amateur OSINT’ source widely used as standard by Western think tanks, armed forces, and leaders alike was ORYX, whose legendarily tainted data pool gave false and misleading hopes of a coming Ukrainian victory for years.

Now there has been another interesting addition to this corpus of embarrassing Western info fidelity.

The most prominent one occurred during the recent CIA director’s visit to Moscow, wherein John Ratcliffe allegedly relayed to Putin that the life expectancy of the average Russian soldier on the front is 35 minutes. The problems begin in the NYT piece that broke the story:

Mark Ames explains that following the article’s hyperlinks shows the CIA’s claim of 35 minute life expectancies in fact came from an obscure Telegram channel, which spawned an entire disingenuous info-narrative campaign:

From Emil Kastehelmi above:

The claim seems to originate from a Russian Telegram channel with 5000 followers. The channel cites an unnamed article, which states that the average lifespan of a soldier in an assault is 20–35 minutes – surviving that means that he has found cover or has taken up a position. 2/

Read the highlighted above from the original TG post. A random Telegram blogger “once read a (random, unsourced) article” that told him a soldier lasts 35 minutes on the front. This claim gets picked up and carried throughout the entire Western analytical ecosystem as “proof” that Russia is losing—no substance required.

A total sham.

A claim like this shouldn’t find its way into a serious text. A few critical questions reveal its flimsiness. Who clocks the time reliably throughout the sectors? How can data be consistently collected with a sufficient sample size? Why would such sensitive data be published? 4/

The claim was amplified by CIA Director Ratcliffe who said their intelligence is consistent with “some” open-source reporting: “The average life expectancy of a Russian recruit right now, arriving on the battlefield in Ukraine, is estimated to be between 20 and 30 minutes.” 5/

How could the once-formidable CIA have declined into such an amateurish circus?

If you listen to the above, you’ll note his statement is even more egregious than might appear at first glance. Not only does he give the absurd 35-minute canard, but he claims the reason Russians are dying so fast is because of “AI-powered drones”.

This is disgracefully unprofessional from a man in a position meant to know “everything”. Even armchair casuals following the war know that “AI drones” are not currently taking out swaths of infantry soldiers—at least not directly—barring one or two claimed incidents, let alone in such mass and scale that they are producing an average life expectancy of 35 minutes across the entire front on the Russian side. AI-powered drones for now are mostly limited to hitting certain static targets and vehicles, but the way Ratcliffe makes it sound is that they are hunting the actual troops themselves out on the field and in fortifications, which is not nearly the case.

This only makes us more certain that the Russians must have laughed in Ratcliffe’s gullible and credulous face, which likely explains why his visit was considered bizarrely “short”, given that he flew back out mere hours after landing in Moscow.

The second is a smaller, yet no less elucidating, example.

The AMK Mapping account has pointed out that the famed Austrian Colonel Marcus Reisner’s recent broadcast featured an analysis utilizing AMK’s OSINT maps:

In the comments section, another popular French OSINT mapper reveals that the second map on Colonel Reisner’s screen is his own:

Not to take anything away from them, as they both do tremendous work, but these are 19-year old teenage amateur mappers:

The fact that their OSINT work is now essentially the standardized analytical template for Western militaries should probably tell us something.

Of course, the lady below is correct: it says more about the West’s own inhouse capabilities—or lack thereof—than the clearly superior work of such teenage mappers.

The broader point is to illustrate how the West’s entire conception of the war has been framed as relying on some sophisticated “insider knowledge” to assure us that Russia is infact losing because some arcanely “superior” Western analytical doctrine has deduced this from raw, unfiltered, first principle facts. In reality, the West’s entire flimsy narrative-procurement machine rests hopelessly on a bunch of drip-fed, hand-me-down dregs carelessly zooted up from some dank corner of Twitter or Telegram, then simply ‘dressed-up’ with the frills of “official” pronouncement.

It is a total lack of information hygiene, most recently evidenced by the Western establishment’s inability to even parse the obvious smoking gun of Budanov’s revelation that the AFU requires 30,000 men per month “just to maintain what [they] have.”

Though perhaps cracks are beginning to form, as seen in this latest MSM rag’s piece:

It condemns Western sugarcoating which is leading Ukraine on the path of doom, and in its finale even brings up the Budanov-Zelensky “official” KIA disparity.

Ukraine is “gradually, slowly losing” the war. Those are not the words of a Kremlin propagandist but Ukraine’s own Mykhailo Fedorov, the country’s recently dismissed defence minister, speaking to Reuters last week. In the days after he made that grim prediction, Russia has stepped up its attacks on Ukraine to near-apocalyptic levels.

In a fiendishly effective move, the Kremlin switched from mass drone and missile strikes to continuous, 60-hour-long waves of bombardments which saw nineteen air-raids on Kyiv in a single day, exhausting defenders and dwindling stocks of air-defence missiles alike.

The piece compares Ukraine destroying 20% of Russia’s Wildberries warehouse space to Russia’s 90% destruction—as per Ukraine’s own officials—of Ukrainian retail warehouse space. It ends on a sour note, with no balms of hopeful rhetoric or the usual MSM bromides and platitudes about Ukrainian “victory”:

Instead, Putin clearly intends to use all his resources to destroy Ukraine’s energy, transport and logistics infrastructure this winter in a final push to bring the country to its knees. The challenge for Ukraine – and its allies – is to marshal resources, interceptors and counter-blows that will allow it to survive the Kremlin’s rising storm.

Earlier in the piece the authors touched on another newly common theme amongst MSM reportage: that Russian manufacturing and offensive capacities are growing beyond all previous estimates:

But Russia’s offensive capacities are rising much faster than Ukraine’s, according to recent Nato reports.

In a similar spate of honest reporting, a new FT piece tackles this:

The author declares that Russia is slowly reforming itself into the West’s worst nightmare—a juggernaut which combines all the strengths of Soviet-era industry with 21st century ingenuity:

Despite Ukraine’s recent battlefield successes, it is far too early to write off Russia, which is rebuilding its military in ways that many in the west have underestimated. Instead of simply replacing battlefield losses, it is creating a defence industry that combines Soviet-era industrial capacity with the demands of 21st-century warfare. The goal is not just to produce more tanks, but to reshape its military around the “asymmetric” advantages revealed by the war in Ukraine: drones, compact electronic warfare systems and other low-cost technologies that can be fielded at scale.

The long-term challenge may be even greater for Europe than for Ukraine, whose military has spent more than a decade adapting to old Russian tactics and capabilities.

But these aren’t just quaint talking points, the author argues. The revitalization revolves around major structural reforms in the Russian industrial base, which includes the dreaded decentralized innovation that the West for so long boasted would be elusive to the ‘backwards’ and backwater Russian nation:

Today’s system selectively incorporates market incentives, private companies and decentralised innovation. A good example is the Ushkuynik, a technology accelerator that bridges domestic start-up and technical volunteer efforts with larger defence-industrial enterprises and the state acquisition system. This set-up enables small-scale efforts that would normally remain outside the ministry’s orbit to respond to frontline needs. This model also makes sanctions evasion easier. Instead of solely relying on state procurement, private firms and intermediary networks employ shell companies, third-country distributors and ecommerce platforms such as Alibaba to buy dual-use western components while circumventing export controls.

Even more surprisingly, the author notes, Soviet-era industrial giants have proven themselves flexible and adaptable to modern demands:

Contrary to expectations, Soviet-era defence giants have proved adaptable, prioritising scalable, low-cost capabilities — such as drones and compact electronic warfare. Legacy manufacturers are increasingly investing in unmanned systems, AI-enabled targeting and autonomous technologies. Kalashnikov’s partnerships with grassroots initiatives such as Ushkuynik and Project Archangel illustrate how wartime innovation is consolidated under major state defence contractors. Russia’s Geran long-range drones have evolved from the original Iranian propeller-driven design to jet-powered versions, as well as newer variants operating on mesh networks (a self-organising wireless network allowing drones to communicate directly and relay data through one another). Electronic warfare has undergone a similar transformation: rather than relying on large, strategic systems, Russia has started fielding thousands of compact counter-drone systems to jam communications and disrupt navigation.

This is all very true: much of Russia’s current innovation on the battlefield comes by way of a surprisingly free and loose treatment of homegrown garage “start-ups” by the Russian MOD, which allows them to incorporate their innovation into the wider official MIC framework.

Most importantly, the people in the factories are receiving direct feedback from the front on an ongoing basis, creating a synergistic relationship which promotes immediate positive alterations and upgrades to ongoing weapons developments:

Finally, the war has created a feedback loop between the front lines and factories, allowing Russian companies to test, refine and field new systems rapidly. These battlefield-tested systems are generating international interest. Russian companies have marketed combat-proven equipment at international arms exhibitions, leading to export deals. In 2026, Kalashnikov signed an agreement to supply civilian UAVs to an Indian partner. This demand is likely to grow, particularly across the global south.

The piece ends with pessimism, noting that NATO has yet to even begin trying to catch up:

While Russia has spent years adapting to counter western weapons and tactics on the battlefield, Nato has had far fewer opportunities to develop comparable experience. It is time to start closing that gap.

As a bonus to underscore some of the above points, this new piece from the Spanish El Mundo explains that the “euphoria” surrounding Ukrainian deep strike campaigns has ended, given that Russia’s new anti-Starlink jammer is beginning to herald the end of Starlink’s dominance:

Russia’s official state-operated TASS outlet reports that the feared new Starlink jammer called Volna Kupol Garant has been launched into mass production:

MOSCOW, August 28. /TASS/. Serial production of Russia’s latest electronic warfare system, the Volna Kupol Garant, which is capable of effectively countering the Starlink satellite system, has been started, a Russian defense industry source told TASS.

“The Volna Kupol Garant system has proven effective, and we have begun to produce and deploy it on a larger scale. Now quantity has transformed into quality, and we have essentially blocked the skies from Starlink wherever we need to. The enemy has been dealt a crushing blow.

How Volna Kupol Garant EW system works

The Russian defense industry source emphasized that Volna Kupol Garant does not interfere with ground terminals. “It operates from above and disrupts the operation of the satellites themselves in orbit. Using a narrow, powerful, directional radio signal, it blinds the satellites’ receiving antennas, causing the spacecraft’s onboard systems to fail and ground terminals to stop functioning. Right before our eyes, the Volna system was conceived, developed, produced as prototypes, and underwent several modifications and improvements. And today, we can safely say that it has entered mass production,” the source stated.

According to him, the system’s signal is so powerful that a single Volna Kupol Garant device can shut down Starlink across a vast area. “Several devices can shut down an entire region. Dozens of devices activated simultaneously could cause a temporary disruption in Starlink’s operations. But the most interesting thing is that Russia reserves the right to distribute this technology to all interested countries around the world. Tools with similar capabilities and power have already appeared in China. This is just the beginning. Elon Musk has gotten himself into the wrong game. If Starlink does not stop aiding and abetting terrorism, it will be up to Russia to decide whether to shut down Starlink only over our territory or worldwide,” the source said.

In the El Mundo piece, a Ukrainian unit commander told journalists that upon destroying one of the new Volno Kupol Garant systems with drones, their Starlink feeds immediately began to function normally again in the area. Coupled with Russia’s launching of its own new Rassvet system—which is a Starlink analogue—the future bodes to be increasingly dim for Ukraine.

The El Mundo piece ends in a fitting manner:

Mykola Kolesnyk, however, says he never shared in that “euphoria.” “I like to be realistic. The Russians are very serious enemies,” he says.

Both Koloesnyk and Anton Zemlianyi agree that with Ukraine having become a military testing ground, the only ones failing to take advantage of this reality are Western nations.

“NATO doctrine is obsolete. They won’t be able to stand up to the Russians,” concludes Zemlianyi.

It’s not so much that Russia is exceptionally powerful as a nation, but rather that NATO and the EU—mired in historic corruption and cultural decay—are extraordinarily defunct as functional civilizations.

It is precisely why the Ukrainian war was necessary to provoke: to make sure that sovereign Russia does not become disproportionately powerful in comparison to the neutered slave-states of Europe and the West, which must be kept degraded and destabilized at all times for the propped-up idol of “globalism” to continue being a credible ‘beacon’ of humanity’s salvation.

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

Last night Kiev was hit with another massive attack, which resulted in the explosion of a weapons depot—the second of its kind—stored right next to a civilian area. Nearly 40 civilians have died, and even Zelensky is furious at the “negligence” of his staff:

From his post:

A terrible situation and terrible negligence on the part of those who stored explosives right next to people.

Another such crime – after what happened in Vyshneve – is absolutely unacceptable. I expect the details to be presented to the public promptly. The first strike was on an ammunition storage site that definitely shouldn’t have been there – a Defense Forces storage facility. Shells, mines, other ammunition, and drones detonated. The scale is significant.

We have already spoken with the Prosecutor General, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Security Service of Ukraine, and the Commander-in-Chief – they have everything necessary for the investigation. I want to separately thank everyone who is there on the ground and at other sites of Russian strikes, doing everything possible to help and save people.

Credit where it’s due: he takes accountability immediately—the mark of good leadership.

Some reports claim that a newly arrived batch of Patriot missiles was stored at the depot, and they have now gone up in spectacular flames.

The explosion:

The cook-offs—potentially of Patriot missiles:

Even more significant is the fact that Russia has been absolutely vaporizing Ukraine’s infrastructure and grain export capabilities.

The most troubling report comes from Ukraine’s own Ukrinform outlet which quotes Ukraine’s own Minister of Agrarian Policy Taras Vysotsky as stating that in its retaliatory campaign, Russia has already destroyed a mind-boggling 90% of all retail warehouse space in Ukraine:

Despite the fact that the enemy destroyed about 90% of the warehouses of retail chains, Ukrainians will not be left without food.

This was stated by the Minister of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine Taras Vysotsky during a conversation with journalists, Ukrinform reports.

“Today, roughly 90% of food logistics by retail chains has been destroyed, but at the same time, this does not mean that Ukrainians will be left without food. There will be shift logistics, as they say, with wheels, other options for operational supply. That is, there will be no threat of hunger and a systemic physical shortage of food, “ Vysotsky assured.

It’s very difficult to believe this is not hyperbole, but this is straight from the horse’s mouth so all we can do is take it at face value for now.

Recall that Ukraine began hitting Wildberries under the pretense that some military hardware like radios and armored vests are sold there. Russia began to destroy Ukraine’s ‘Epicenter’ warehouses which store—according to the CEO of Ukraine’s chief drone manufacturer FirePoint—certain components for her company’s infamous Flamingo missiles:

What’s good for the goose… as the saying goes.

It’s hard to grasp the speed of destruction: if even a fraction of the 90% figure is true, it means Russia has crippled Ukraine in such a way in only a week or two of retaliatory strikes. It becomes even more difficult to imagine what lies next for Ukraine.

And this is where most speculation is now growing. There is clearly something afoot. Just on the heels of the CIA director’s visit to “warn Moscow not to take any chances with NATO” we are hearing various reports that seem to indicate escalation precisely in this area—and it’s difficult to tell exactly which side will be the key driver.

Russia, for its part, has recently made some interesting statements that appear to threaten NATO countries with retaliation. For instance, MFA Spokesman Maria Zakharova issued a strong statement this week, threatening retaliation against British interests in Ukraine and abroad, after British Storm Shadow missiles were confirmed to have been used in a strike against Donetsk:

Her exact quote:

"Any British military facilities and hardware, located both inside the Ukraine and beyond its borders, may become legitimate targets in response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil using British weapons. Those complicit in war crimes, including actions targeting our civilian population, will be penalized proportionally to their offenses."

"Trying to inflict a 'strategic defeat' on Russia is doomed to fail, though London has already thoroughly smeared its hands in it. We urge all residents of the UK to ponder the unavoidable catastrophic fallout of their own government's hostile actions."

Then, a Russian deputy foreign minister made another interesting remark, that the conflict could be settled after Kiev is taken under an international administration:

External governance in Kyiv under the auspices of the UN could pave the way for a diplomatic settlement. This was stated on August 29 in an interview with RIA Novosti by Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Foreign Minister.

He reminded that Russian President Vladimir Putin had previously proposed introducing temporary external administration in Ukraine under the auspices of the UN, the United States, European countries, and Russian partners in order to hold elections for the Ukrainian top leadership. According to Putin, Russia could already be conducting negotiations to resolve the Ukrainian conflict.

“This could open the way to a diplomatic settlement,” Galuzin emphasized.

This could give us a hint toward one of the directions the Kremlin is willing to go in ending the conflict.

Bloomberg claims that Russia is set to “escalate” the war:

Russia is preparing to escalate attacks on Ukraine after concluding that negotiations for a peace deal have reached a dead end, according to three people close to the Kremlin.

For now, Russia is weighing an intensification of powerful conventional ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv, including the center of the capital, and infrastructure targets in other Ukrainian cities, the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is sensitive.

The most widely-circulated passage from the article claims that Russia may choose to use tactical nuclear weapons:

The escalating spiral of strikes is leading a growing number of Russian officials to the conclusion that Putin could eventually opt to use tactical nuclear weapons as a last resort in Ukraine, according to the people close to the Kremlin.

Made-up bunk, of course. But it’s part of a designated campaign to stir up escalation between Russia and Europe.

At the same time, Germany is reportedly planning to begin its own new campaign of provocations against Russia by formally blaming Moscow for the ‘mysterious’ drone falseflags attacks at German airports this month:

From Politico:

One of the officials familiar with the matter said that in response to the Leipzig drone incident, it was no longer enough to expel individual Russian diplomats or close the Russian House in Berlin. Tougher measures were needed, such as intensified sanctions or even more extensive arms deliveries to Ukraine. The three officials declined to provide further details on which precise measures Merz plans to announce.

Politico reports that, as a result, Germany intends to launch into another aggressive militarization against Russia:

Two of the officials described the upcoming move as a “Zeitenwende 2.0,” a reference to the historic shift on defense that former Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced in response to Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The past few weeks have seen a lot of “strange” and threatening NATO activity all around Kaliningrad, as well.

Recall that just as Western leaders and press alike have been fuming about claimed Russian attacks across Europe, the same figures have openly glorified and encouraged attacks on Russia’s own civilian infrastructure:

Now there is an increasing number of reports regarding a planned Russian operation from the north, potentially toward Kiev—and this is where things tie together.

Ukraine’s own Ukrainska Pravda outlet reports today the statements made by Deputy Head of the Office of the President Pavlo Palisa:

Russia’s military leadership has been tasked by the country’s political leadership with planning and preparing several possible scenarios for operations towards Kyiv and Chernihiv. However, Ukraine has not currently detected the formation of an offensive force in these areas.

Source: Pavlo Palisa, Deputy Head of the Office of the President, speaking to journalists, as reported by LIGA.net

Details: Palisa said that Ukraine received this information from intelligence agencies and verified it through several sources.

Quote: “We have indeed received information from intelligence agencies, verified by several sources, that the military leadership of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation has been tasked by the political leadership to plan several possible scenarios for such an operation towards Kyiv and Chernihiv.”

Meanwhile Radio Svaboda reports that the Gomel region of Belarus is seeing railway construction “for the rapid, mass unloading of heavy wheeled and tracked equipment”:

Full article link: https://www.svaboda.org/a/33839065.html

First, it must be said that even Pavlo Palisa clarified that no mass buildup of troops is seen yet, but rather Ukraine has acquired intelligence to indicate the Russian General Staff is considering such an option. And if railway infrastructure were to be built in Belarus for some future potential action, it clearly implies that no such “mass invasion” is happening anytime soon.

That said, these latest reports are coupled with continued claims of a mass mobilization of 600k troops being planned in Russia, which virtually every top Russian figure has denied at this point, though some adding with a caveat: “This isn’t necessary at the moment.”

There are now various rumors that hundreds of thousands of Russian military-aged men are fleeing via the Georgian border. This is likely exaggeration, but I can personally confirm that a number of younger Russian men are in fact fleeing amidst the internal belief that some kind of mobilization is imminent—this is indisputable fact.

However, the most honest man in Kiev, Kyrylo Budanov—and I do not mean that sarcastically—himself dispelled these rumors, admitting that Russia is not planning any kind of mobilization at all. Watch toward the end:

The first half of the interview, he admits Ukraine requires 30,000 men per month just to “maintain” what it currently has—an obvious indication of its losses. Recall that Zelensky declared Ukraine’s total losses since the start of the war are a mere 50,000.

Awkward.

Tying It All Together

Now to tie it all together.

Read more

It begins by describing how Netanyahu reassured Trump Iran was at its “weakest point in decades”, while Trump’s own intel analysts via Gabbard’s DNI warned him that killing Khamenei would merely install much more hardline figures who would rush to close the Strait of Hormuz, amongst many other things which predicted the eventualities that ensued almost perfectly:

Then-Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard outlined assessments from America’s intelligence apparatus. According to people familiar with the meeting, she told Trump that killing Iran’s supreme leader would likely usher in a more hard-line regime open to acquiring nuclear weapons. Tehran would rush to close the Strait of Hormuz, destabilizing the global energy market. And it would strike U.S. forces and partners in the Middle East, prompting questions about American resolve and reliability with allies.

The article goes on to detail how Trump hubristically gloated over the killing of Khamenei only to see all the DNI’s predictions play out, after which a befuddled Trump turned irate at his advisors over his inability to understand why the US Armed Forces could not bring Iran to heel.

The outcome turned to the complete opposite of Trump’s vision, as multiple MSM outlets now confirm the Iran war caused “billions” in damage to irreplaceable US intelligence sites, which include surveillance equipment, CIA stations, radar networks, and more.

From the Telegraph:

Iranian drones and missiles have struck “intelligence posts and surveillance hardware in the Middle East that is more extensive than any destruction America’s spy agencies have endured,” NBC News reported, citing four unnamed sources.

The damage is expected to cost billions to repair.

A CIA station in Riyadh, capital of Saudi Arabia, was struck by Iranian drones in March, Reuters reported last month. A separate CIA facility in eastern Iraq was also targeted.

Sources told NBC that additional sites had been hit but declined to provide further details. U.S. officials have also investigated whether Russia supplied Iran with drone technology or targeting information.

This comes amidst new reports that the US Navy is running out of funds due to the disastrous war:

Donald Trump’s war on Iran has driven the US military into a severe financial crisis, with the US navy forced to transfer money from its payroll and other sources to cover the costs of combat, according to documents obtained by the Guardian, and interviews with navy officials, contractors and defense analysts.

Of interest is their statement that “non-emergency maintenance” is being deferred due to the cash crunch:

Experts and former officials say the accounts are running dry. “The piggy bank is broken,” said Harlan Ullman, a retired naval officer. Ullman is a member of the National Commission for the Future of the Navy but he said he is not speaking on the commission’s behalf.

One official and one navy contractor said non-emergency maintenance on shore-based facilities has been deferred because of the cash crunch.

Though they’re referring to “shore-based facilities”, it wouldn’t be surprising if this extends to virtually everything, which would explain the sad condition of US ships of late. Expect the US military to look increasingly run-down in the future as the repercussions of this mess slowly spread with the usual delayed effect of a gargantuan organization.

To further twist the knife on the Trump presidency’s magnum opus, WSJ reports that the US’s latest boasts of oil “pouring through Hormuz” are again nothing but hot air:

DUBAI—The Trump administration says large volumes of oil are slipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The trackers whose job it is to count the world’s oil shipments see much less.

Given the directionless nature of Trump’s ongoing Hormuz play, it gives some credibility to rumors that CIA Director Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow had something to do with warning Russia to stop supplying Iran with various forms of help. Perhaps in his desperation to break out of the deadlock, Trump sent Ratcliffe to plead for Russia to back off in exchange for some offer, so that Trump can cinch up Hormuz with a “victory” and call it a day.

After all, in recent weeks there have been various reports of the types of help Russia is providing, not least of which being to the Houthis—from Israeli news channels:

Suddenly ever the busy bee, Robert Kagan has penned another piece for the Atlantic wherein he peremptorily declares that Iran will henceforth be the dominant power in the Middle East:

It seems odd that he’s been frantically scribbling out so many pieces of late, in a swoon of paranoia or desperation. Often such figures pen these fear-monger pieces disingenuously, feigning some declarative “doom” reality when their true intention is to spur action to prevent the very result they’re railing about. Is this the case here?

Kagan writes:

For years, Iran confronted a balance of power in the Middle East that tilted against it. The region was dominated by a hostile American superpower, a nuclear-armed and militarily superior Israel, and significant local actors—Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates—that were strategically and economically aligned with the United States.

Today finds Iran in entirely new circumstances. It has gone head-to-head with the superpower and Israel, withstood a pounding from their most advanced weapons, and more than survived. As a result, Iran has, with American help, completely reconfigured the power structure of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. The dominant power in the region going forward will be Iran, not the U.S. or Israel. Neighboring countries are already making their adjustments to this new reality. More distant powers will too. For years, the world has been dealing with an Iran constrained. It will now discover what Iran unleashed looks like.

What we can at least say is, no matter his intention, the conclusion is certainly objectively correct.

Kagan goes on to explain that when Israel attempted to shut down Iran’s gas production, the blowback was so sudden and powerful that it immediately sent Trump TACOing into a ceasefire:

Yet through all of this, the regime has survived and made no concessions. On the contrary, Iran exposed America’s Achilles’ heel: the vulnerability of Iran’s neighbors. A major turning point came in mid-March, when Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field, and Iran retaliated against Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, the world’s largest liquefied-natural-gas facility. The attack showed that although Iran obviously could not defeat the United States in an air war, Iranian missiles and drones could inflict enough damage on the oil-and-gas infrastructure of the Gulf to plunge the world into a prolonged economic crisis. The Gulf States understood this immediately, and so did Trump. He halted attacks on Iranian energy targets, ordered a reluctant Israel to do the same, and soon brought the larger campaign to a stop without extracting a single Iranian concession. Ever since, and despite many threats, Trump has not once ordered another strike against Iranian energy infrastructure.

In short, Iran proved to hold the most powerful leverage of all.

He goes on to admit that the MOU signed in June was a clear Iranian victory that declared “that the Islamic Republic of Iran, and no other nation, would “make arrangements” for the “safe passage of commercial vessels” through the Strait of Hormuz. In dialogue with Oman, without intermediaries or other participants, Iran would determine the strait’s administration “in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states.”

The kicker, Kagan notes, is that Iran didn’t even really need the MOU, and knew the US had no cards to play and would cut tail with or without it:

In retrospect, Iran’s leaders do not seem to have believed that they needed the MOU. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly had to be persuaded by President Masoud Pezeshkian to sign it. Tehran’s relative indifference was understandable: The American concessions reflected such desperation to end the war that the Iranians could well have expected that the U.S. would eventually retreat, with or without a deal.

The US now fears escalation more than Iran does, Kagan correctly notes.

Now as for Trump’s pitiful “sanctions” and newly laid strategy of suffocating Iran via gradual economic means, Kagan writes this is rank delusion:

The idea that, having survived both military strikes and sanctions, Iran will now succumb to sanctions alone is deluded. Mojtaba has overhauled Iran’s national-security leadership and installed veterans of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in top positions. Former IRGC Commander Mohsen Rezaei now heads the Supreme National Security Council, and other hard-line security officials have been elevated. The regime emerging from the war is being reorganized by men who believe that Iran survived an American-Israeli attempt to destroy it and that defiance, not compromise, produced victory.

With his known perspicacity, Kagan outlines why Iran’s control of the Strait is an even more powerful weapon than a nuclear device, which is strictly deterrent in nature:

Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz is a more useful instrument of power than a nuclear weapon would be. A nuclear weapon might deter an attack, but control of the strait gives Iran leverage every day, over dozens of countries. With it, Iran can reward friends, punish enemies, extract revenue, force the loosening of sanctions, and make governments think twice before opposing Iranian policies. It can do all of this without firing a shot, and while preserving the ability to threaten violence when necessary.

Toward the end Kagan touches on another important repercussion of US’s historic failure in Iran—the fact that it exposed America as a paper tiger, which will have compounding effects in other regions throughout the world:

The effects will extend far beyond the Middle East. American allies in Asia and Europe can see that a relatively brief war against a second-rank power has consumed much of America’s supply of the weapons needed for missile defense. They can see that the United States began a war it could not finish, exposed its partners to retaliation, and then stopped when the costs became too great. Beijing’s conclusions about Taiwan, and Moscow’s conclusions about Europe, may be impossible to know. But America’s allies will inevitably be asking whether Washington has the weapons, stamina, and political will to sustain another major conflict. In fact, they already are.

This comes particularly timely today as it was fascinatingly revealed—at least according to NYT and WaPo—that Ratcliffe’s “secret trip” to Moscow yesterday was spurred by Washington’s fear that Russia now views US as so weakened by its Iran defeat, that it could inspire Putin to “like his chances” in having a go against a NATO state:

Read the highlighted carefully:

"CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s mysterious trip to Moscow this week was preceded by fresh U.S. intelligence indicating that the Kremlin sees the United States as weakened by the Iran war, offering Russia an opportunity to escalate action against American interests and allies in Europe, according to two people familiar with the matter...

You can’t make this up:

Ratcliffe’s trip to Moscow was 'less about Putin being in a corner' because his army has failed to break a stalemate on the Ukraine battlefield 'and more because Russia assesses we are depleted and can’t intervene,' one of the people familiar said."

So, Ratcliffe desperately flew to reassure Russia that the US is not in fact a paper tiger, and to shake a stick at Putin to remind him that despite humiliatingly having the floor wiped with it by a middle power, the US still means business.

If true, this is a rather shocking and embarrassing turn of events. It effectively would mean that Ratcliffe was sent as errand-boy to basically say:

“Listen, I know our empire looks to be on its last legs, but don’t forget: we still have NUKES (aging though they may be, run by floppy disks from the ‘70s, and stashed in siloes manned by drug addicts).”

Well, if that was his message, it certainly would have been received with lip trembling delight by Russian interlocutors.

When you have to fly around the world to ‘remind’ your adversaries of your strength, it may be the first major sign that the sun has begun to set on your empire.

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

The commentariat is aswirl with rumor as to what his trip could signify. But let us first contextualize with a reminder that this is the first visit to Russia by a CIA director since the fateful November 2021 arrival of CIA Director William Burns, which was marked by the US’s last attempt to thwart Russia from launching its invasion just over two months later.

As such, many have rightfully attributed great consequence to this latest meeting.

WSJ theorizes that the visit may have something to do with the US’s intelligence that Russia is preparing for some large-scale new campaign:

The U.S. has collected intelligence showing Russia’s early preparations for a possible military mobilization in Ukraine and plans for testing the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s resolve, The Wall Street Journal has reported.

Analysts said Ratcliffe could meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to deliver a warning. “It could be to say, ‘We know what you are thinking about doing, and you better not,’” said Beth Sanner, a former U.S. deputy director of national intelligence for mission integration. “It could also be about the Iran ceasefire and putting someone else in the discussion,” she said, adding Ratcliffe might also touch upon the Kremlin’s support for Iran following a new U.S. sanctions campaign against the regime.

Other online aggregators have reported it could have something to do with Russia’s alleged “drone incursions” into NATO territory, though the CIA director’s personal visit related to this seems a tad far-fetched:

CIA Director Ratcliffe’s visit to the Kremlin was an ultimatum addressing recent drone incursions into NATO territory, aimed at deterring Russia from escalating attacks on Kyiv following Ukrainian strikes on commercial supply chain warehouses, a senior US official has told Faytuks Network.

Russian RVoenkor channel reports that Ukrainian sources believe the meeting is in response to some “significant secret operation” that Russia is preparing:

In Moscow, discussions took place with the Director of the CIA regarding a significant secret operation.

▪️According to Kyiv media, the Ukrainian side is aware of certain aspects and issues that were discussed today in Moscow.
▪️This concerns a significant operation, the preparation of which has been underway in secrecy for a certain period. Its results could have a significant impact on future developments.

What could such an operation be?

Well, for one there continue to be strong rumors of a major Russian operation to be potentially launched into the Chernigov region of northern Ukraine, bordering Kiev:

AMK Mapping writes:

Note: This information comes from Russian and Ukrainian sources who I have spoken to. Both have given me permission to post this. Details which could be used by either Russia or Ukraine for targeting one another have been omitted. Everything mentioned here is already known by each side. Arrows shown on the map are illustrative.

The more likely reason could be the CIA is simply attempting to save Ukraine, which is now both floundering and foundering beneath a wave of Russian strikes which are destroying the last vestiges of its economy. It’s the reason that this past week the US and Ukraine reportedly developed another in a long line of desperate plans to cajole Russia into a ceasefire:

The Ukrainian president said on Sunday that Kyiv had worked with President Trump’s envoys and European officials on the plan. He said it would involve a ceasefire, a reciprocal withdrawal from the front line by Russian and Ukrainian troops and the creation of a buffer zone.

“There are several more ideas from the American side, as far as we know. They want to find the right moment to share them. We are waiting for them,” Zelensky added.

A “Vatican official” reportedly arrived in Moscow to deliver the message and urge Putin to stop the war. Putin had just stated yesterday that he continues to receive “exotic and unacceptable” offers from the US about prematurely ending the conflict.

We can only assume Ukraine’s situation has become more dire than ever, particularly with the coming of winter, which will expose all Ukraine’s worst debilities for the world to see. As such, these are desperate Western attempts to stem Russia’s now-accelerating onslaught.

Whatever the meeting’s true nature, its aftermath witnessed a slew of oddities, with claims the US embassy in Moscow was said to have taken down its American flag immediately after Ratcliffe’s departure, which was later corrected to the ‘American Center’ in Moscow.

US “doomsday planes” were suddenly spotted taking to the skies over the midwest:

That’s not to mention that Putin was said to have signed three “secret decrees” after the CIA head’s visit:

Putin signed 3 classified decrees on the day the CIA director visited Moscow.

* Russian liberal media are reporting on the "sensation."
* They have noted a gap between decrees 604 and 608 in the official list of presidential decrees.
* The content of the documents is unknown, but it is clearly not related to the CIA director's visit. After the classified decrees, decree No. 608 was signed, concerning the dismissal of the Iraqi ambassador, E. Kutrashev, which became known earlier in the morning.
* The classified documents may relate to the protection of critical infrastructure.

The graphic from the Kremlin’s official site shows decrees numbering in order, with No. 605, 606, and 607 missing, which again spurred wild rumors and hysteria:

One Russian analyst’s take about the entire spectacle:

The aircraft carrying the American delegation, led by CIA Director John Ratcliffe, has left Moscow.

The Wall Street Journal says this could have been a visit similar to the one before the SMO, when US officials reportedly warned the Kremlin not to proceed.

In this case, the message would be not to begin a mobilisation in Russia, something that has been seriously discussed for the past three or four months and for which there is evidence suggesting preparations are underway. I imagine the decision on whether to mobilise or not will be made depending on the results of the elections in one month.

On the other hand, the CIA Director would also be trying to warn the Kremlin against staging a provocation or testing NATO’s resolve, another possibility that has also been discussed.

Immediately after the meeting, Putin signed three “secret decrees.” The reason for describing them this way is that publicly available Decrees No. 604 and 608 exist, while the three preceding decrees are missing. This is reflected in the registry on the official legal information portal. (or it could be just a coincidence)

Russian political theorist Henry Sardaryan also makes some compelling points about the nature of Ratcliffe’s visit:

Highlighting the desperation behind the scenes which is likely driving these latest efforts from Ukraine comes a startling new statement from star ex-Defense Minister Fedorov that Ukraine is in fact “losing the war against Russia”, and that it only has a window of a few months to turn things around:

Kiev is gradually approaching defeat in the conflict with Moscow, said former Defense Minister Nikolai Fedorov.

“I think we’ve reached a turning point that will determine our future trajectory. But it looks like we’re gradually, slowly losing,” he said in an interview with Reuters.

So, Ukraine only has a few months—precisely timed with the arrival of what is now expected to be a brutally uncompromising winter, wherein a depleted Ukraine, lacking air defense, and with power generation on its last legs, will attempt to stave off an unstoppably relentless Russian ballistic onslaught to its key critical infrastructure. It seems Ukrainian elites see the writing on the wall, and the CIA and other Western sponsors and string-pullers alike are rushing in to make a last ditch effort to dissuade the Russian juggernaut from pulling the plug on the barren white dwarf formerly known as Proxy-404.

The rats are now going over the cliff.

It’s only fitting that Ratcliffe’s arrival would portend the Bankova rodent’s final fall from grace.

At least this is how it’s all beginning to look.

But what do you think? Share your thoughts below.

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

Ex-Defense Minister Reznikov first broke the ice by discussing the new “stricter” mobilization procedures being promised by Zelensky’s government, which include tightening various rules as well as potentially changing the draft age.

But at the 0:30 second mark, he states that for Ukraine to make it, it must look to other states which have successfully solved manpower issues, and elevates Israel to the exemplary role:

Israel and Ukraine have a lot in common, he thinks. An independent Ukraine has existed for only a few decades less than Israel. Israel freely uses women in its armed forces, and by that logic so should Ukraine:

“The Verkhovna Rada must decide and amend the military legislation [that] the general duty to defend the country belongs to all citizens of Ukraine,” he states coldly.

Women don’t have to be on “frontline roles”, but can be drone ops and work in the rear, he says. Sure, if you ignore the fact that the AFU regularly sends these “rear” grunt-units to the killing fields as meat troops for the routine staged PR psyop assaults that are necessary to maintain the aura of some Ukrainian “initiative” for Western audiences.

Next the breakfast cereal man tells Ukraine to mobilize its women because women “fight no worse than men”:

Well, he may have a point. In today’s battlefield, “fighting” on the Ukrainian side is essentially defined as seeing who can survive without food or water in a damp hole in the ground for the longest amount of time before a drone comes to collect their soul. Didn’t NASA prove long ago that women were superior for space flights for precisely this reason of their bodies requiring less maintenance and nourishment?

This was all followed by a concerted Western media push, which included the Telegraph’s latest:

The above piece has to be read to be believed. The author boasts of her previous magnum opus as preface to Ukrainian women’s heroism:

One of the more intriguing (and heartening) consequences of Ukraine’s four-year struggle against Vladimir Putin’s despotism has been the shift in perception of what women are capable of.

I argued in my recent book Good Slut: How Money, Sex and Power Set Women Free that the pervasive idea that we aren’t brave, focused and tough enough for front-line military work is nonsense.

You can’t make this up.

Her angle is that women should be sent to the front in Ukraine not because Ukrainian manpower is depleted and fighting-age males are becoming hard to come by, but simply because Ukrainian women have ‘proven’ themselves to be heroic and above the cut. This is a darkly manipulative attempt to sell off Ukraine’s women to the killing fields by repackaging crisis as glorification—a truly heinous and despicable bit of gaslighting.

Billboards going up across Ukraine:

In Ukrainian news, a petition for mobilizing women who have borne no children has appeared on the Cabinet of Ministers website:

https://petition.kmu.gov.ua/petitions/10515

However, this is not an officially registered bill but rather a petition created by a citizen that is garnering votes.

US Department of Defense official journal Stars and Stripes joined the fray with the following, underscoring the organized nature of the latest media campaign:

Girl power! Only Ukraine’s fatally beautiful girlbosses can stop the evil Orc King Putin of Mordor!

If only reality were as glibly convenient as a wokified Lord of the Rings TV series script.

From the S&S piece:

More than 75,000 women are part of the Ukrainian armed forces as of early 2026, with about 5,500 in combat roles, according to the defense ministry. They account for less than 10% of active-duty personnel, but their numbers have increased by about 40% since before the war.

Unlike men, who are subject to conscription, they enlist by choice.

Drone warfare has made gender distinctions less important, they say, so women can now be of more use than ever before (as drone fodder):

The rise of drone warfare is making gender less of a factor on the battlefield, Prymak said. The technology favors technical skills over raw physical power, reducing the significance of differences that have traditionally separated men and women.

“Physical strength doesn’t really play a significant role anymore,” Prymak said. “And, also, motivation is far more important.”

What a motivating bit of agitprop.

Ukraine’s women themselves don’t seem quite as enthusiastic to join the meat-grinder as they’re presented to be:

Interviewer: Should Ukrainian borders be opened for men to leave at will?

Ukrainian girl: No, because if the men leave then they will mobilize women.

Cue rimshot.

As stated earlier, top Rada official Roman Kostenko stated that major changes to Ukraine’s mobilization will soon take effect because “financial incentives are no longer driving required recruitment numbers”:

Kostenko stressed that radical changes will soon be introduced, and there are already talks about revising the draft age. He declined to specify whether it is a question of lowering or raising the age threshold, noting that the Ministry of Defense or the General Staff should officially inform about this later.

Ukraine is facing an increasingly dire condition. The latest developing crisis revolves around Ukraine’s funding shortfall, as outlined by Zelensky himself in a series of pleading statements.

Carefully note the highlighted portion below, where Zelensky specifies that the nearly $30B deficit was caused by Ukraine frontloading its entire annual budget to the PR campaigns of the first half of the year, specifically noting it went toward “drone production”, amongst other things:

Some analysts have correctly recognized something I’ve been talking about here for over a year already. Ever since Ukraine’s various staged psyop campaigns began to grow larger and larger—from the Kursk invasion, to the attempted sieges of Crimea, etc.—we’ve explained how all of these propaganda motives have a cost. Just in the last free article alone, I mentioned what Ukraine’s attacks against the Wildberries chain mean in the scheme of the zero-sum game reality that presides over all military matters.

To the untrained Western MSM-slop consumer, Ukraine can have infinite attack potential for both useless, non-military, purely ideological targets as well as Russia’s relevant military targets. But that is not how reality works. Everything operates on a cost-basis of finite resources. When Ukraine chooses to stage an unprecedented military campaign of some sort, the resources from that have to come from somewhere due to zero-sum game exigencies.

Amerikanets explains this perfectly:

The reason this makes sense is because Ukraine has been sending an unprecedentedly disproportionate number of drones against Russia, nearly 1,000 per shot on many nights. And most ignorant pro-UA observers absently gloat and cheer this on as if the prodigious resources for such strikes are simply materializing from thin air, recklessly believing that the piper never has to be paid in the end. Well, now the bill is due—and Zelensky is begging for mountains of cash more that the depleted Euro-vassals can no longer afford.

In fact, what now becomes obvious is that Zelensky simply staked everything on this year’s PR campaign to “bring Putin to his knees” via refinery and warehouse strikes—equivalent to doing 40x leveraged margin shorts and blowing up your entire portfolio once the gamble backfires.

But don’t worry, Ukraine’s heroic drone-femmes will save the day by scourging the Russian hordes with their flying pink dildos.

It remains to be seen if Ukraine’s latest initiative sends the expected bolts of fear through Putin, who is said to hate displays of female empowerment.

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

The Council on Foreign Relations think tank’s journal has released their latest, penned by Marc Lynch, the man who coined the term Arab Spring:

Its opening sentence tells the whole story:

The American Middle East is finished.

The regional order that has prevailed since 1991 has been one of the many casualties of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. The American and Israeli failure to dislodge the regime in Tehran has proved the bankruptcy of decades of sanctions and violence. The inability of the United States to protect its Gulf allies from Iranian attacks or to keep the Strait of Hormuz open has fatally undermined the core security bargain that justified its network of military bases in the region. And Israel’s increasingly threatening posture and abandonment of any pretense of interest in reaching an accommodation with the Palestinians have ended Washington’s decades-long mission of bringing its Arab allies and Israel together into an enduring security partnership.

In short: Israel’s unalloyed pursuit of accelerationism in regard to its geopolitical plans has destroyed the very fabric that ensured Israeli-American regional dominance.

The piece argues that just like the Suez Crisis of 1956 was the “last gasp” of French and British colonial power in the Mideast, so too will the Iran war be for American hegemony. New alliances are being forged daily, as Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia signed a new defense pact earlier this month, while Turkey began quietly shipping more military arms to Jolani’s New Syria in preparation for a future stage of conflict against Israel; Israel itself has been ‘studying’ whether NATO’s Article Five would be activated by strikes on Turkey.

The article goes on to detail at length the careful balancing act the United States has been attempting to carry out in the Middle East for decades, typically leveraging its own presumed-to-be unrivaled might whilst usually sidelining genuine Arab interests in the region.

…the architects of this war vastly exaggerated what military power could achieve, underestimated the capacity of adversaries to adapt, took for granted that allies would fall in line, and callously disregarded the lives of ordinary people. Washington’s misadventure was not an aberration so much as the ultimate expression of the inherent vice of its Middle East strategy.

But the problem is, the entire system was built on a series of fragile contradictions from the very start, not least of which being Israel’s taboo possession of nuclear weapons, a greatly destabilizing circumstance which virtually ensures Iran’s existential-level pursuit of asymmetrical deterrence in the region.

Read more

Warehouses belonging to the "Fora" chain of Ukrainian supermarkets, located near Boryspil, Kyiv, were destroyed as a result of a nighttime missile strike.

In addition, reports indicate the destruction of warehouses belonging to the companies Yves Rocher and Faynie Lyody.

The aftermath of the overnight strike on the KLO oil depot in the Brovar district of the Kyiv region.

It is worth noting that the recent strike is characterized by an unusually large number of images and videos, both of the missile strikes themselves and their consequences.

It is possible that the surge in publications is related to Ukraine's desire to draw additional media attention to its problem of a shortage of interceptor missiles for its Patriot air defense systems, as seen in a recent, emotionally charged report by CNN about an empty launcher.

The attack utilized dozens of Russian cruise missiles fired by the Black Sea Fleet stationed in Novorossiysk, as well as hypersonic Zirkons, Iskanders, and reportedly even North Korean KN-23. Once more, Ukrainian authorities revealed not a single one of the hypersonic missiles was shot down.

Some observers believe the KN-23s can be distinguished from the Iskanders by their more diagonal terminal trajectory, rather than purely vertical, as well as what some believe is the visible burn of their motors down through the terminal range, which differentiates them from Iskanders which have a burnout phase that ends much earlier:

A French analyst has precisely mapped recent strikes:

Various reports now show empty store shelves in supermarkets all across Kiev due to Russia’s retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian warehouses.

Ukraine is now threatening to unleash its own copy of the Iskander soon—Firepoint’s FP-9 ballistic missile—with estimates it will be “launched against Moscow by this October”.

Ukraine claims it has a range of nearly 900km, which would allow it to reach Moscow. This is difficult to believe, given that Iskander’s official range is 500km, and there is rumor that the true range is actually much smaller, about ~350km. This is validated by the fact that Iskanders have never been used to hit one of Ukraine’s most important airbases, Starokostiantynov, which is just under 500km from Iskander launch positions near Russia’s border.

It’s possible to reduce the warhead size and increase the fuel payload to increase range, however. Plus, as some have noted, both Russia and the US were militarily gimped by the INF Treaty which limited the range of ground-launched medium range ballistic missiles, while countries like Iran were able to ironically develop IRBMs that surpassed anything Russia or the US had in range. Ukraine can technically do the same thing, but it would require a completely different design. The FP-9 appears to be a direct copy of an earlier generation Iskander which would likely preclude it from achieving those higher ranges.

Interestingly, on that topic the Atlantic brings us a new piece today which makes some remarkable admissions about the origins of Zelensky’s last-ditch 2026 campaign to “bring down Putin” via mass strikes on Russian civilian targets.

It begins:

Early this year, Ukrainian officials came to President Volodymyr Zelensky with a risky new plan to end the war with Russia. It would require expanding their bombing campaign to include a set of targets and a class of weapons they had long avoided. In addition to Ukraine’s ongoing strikes against Russian military bases, oil refineries, supply lines, and logistics hubs, the officials wanted to launch waves of AI-enabled drones at Moscow’s airports, hoping to stop international carriers from flying in and out of the Russian capital, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the plan, which has not been previously reported.

In short, they wanted to plan a mass terror attack on Russian airports to completely shut down all civilian flights in and out of Moscow as a way to ramp up pressure and make Russian civilians in the capital city feel the consequences of the war.

The article claims Zelensky thought better of it, fearing that “accidentally” killing civilians would be seen as “piracy” at the hands of Ukraine.

By the middle of spring, the plan to force a more permanent shutdown of Moscow’s airports had advanced far enough to receive a code name: M&Ms, a reference to the many small, cheap, and nearly identical drones that the mission would require. To overwhelm Russian air defenses, the operation would need to send as many as 1,000 drones a night to airports in and around Moscow, said one of the sources familiar with it.

The article details how it was ex-Defense Minister Fedorov that was responsible for driving the plan, but that even newly-appointed Yevhen Khmara is said to be carrying the reins forward.

Both sources told me planning for the operation was halted in July, when Zelensky abruptly fired its mastermind, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. As the architect of Ukraine’s military drone program, Fedorov had worked on the plan for most of this year, keeping it a secret even from some of his closest aides. He helped assemble a team of Ukrainian computer programmers to develop the AI guidance system, and he secured financing from Ukraine’s allies in Europe to produce the autonomous drones at scale, the two sources said.

The article notes this tracks with Fedorov’s begging of Elon Musk to enable Starlink to be used over all of Russia. This gives us a general overview of what to expect from Ukraine in the coming months. The closer Ukraine comes to battlefield defeat, the more it will redirect all of its available resources to targeting Russian civilian infrastructure in order to spur some kind of popular uprising of discontent against Putin.

The problem for Ukraine is, this creates an accelerating feedback loop of self-defeat: the more resources Ukraine pours into hitting militarily insignificant targets, the more Russia’s actual military might remains unaffected by Ukrainian combat power, which means the faster Ukraine’s collapse will accelerate on the real front. In essence, Ukraine is vesting its entire strategy into a war against Russia’s civilian sentiment, which is as risky a move as it was for the US in Iran, wherein strikes against civil infrastructure turned even the diehard anti-clerical contingent against the US and enshrined their support of the Iranian leadership.

The article ends with a potential compromise on the idea of directly attacking Russian airports:

Zelensky raised concerns about unintended targets being struck when it came to the plan to attack Moscow’s airports, one of the sources familiar with these conversations told me. The officials behind the plan offered work-arounds, the source said. They suggested, for example, that Ukraine would warn civilian airlines to avoid Russian airports and evacuate their planes before the swarm of Ukrainian drones arrived. “If they say to themselves, You know what, it’s getting too risky. Why even continue flying there?” the source said. “That would already have quite an impact on the Russian elites. Those are their main connections to the outside world.”

As stated, now we know what to expect in the coming months.

—

And here’s what Ukraine should expect. Let us dive into a brief battlefield summary.

Russian forces have continued advancing on three key fronts, capturing several important settlements today.

The Southern Group has reportedly taken control of Nikolaypole on the Kramatorsk axis:

Units of the Southern Group of Forces have taken control of the village of Nikolaypolye, located south of the city of Druzhkovka, which is temporarily occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

It can be seen circled in red below in the Ukrainian spelling:

Note also the area north and east of Toretsk, also circled in red, has been captured by Russian forces which are collapsing the pocket between there and newly-captured Nikolaypole to the east.

The wider map shows things in relation to the greater campaign, clearly aimed at Druzhkovka, which is the last major stronghold to the south of Kramatorsk:

Just north of there, Russian forces are also advancing on the Slavyansk front. One Ukrainian military account reports that Russian forces have begun infiltrating Nikolayvka, not to be confused with the above settlement:

Here is how that looks:

If you zoom in close, you will see that the Slavyansk Thermal Power station is in the light-red area and has now been reached by Russian DRGs—the orange line delineating alleged Russian ‘soft-control’:

To put things in perspective, here’s our Sitrep from July 2nd of this year, which showed Russian forces had only begun viewing the Slavyansk TPP from drones several kilometers out:

As can be seen, in about a month-and-a-half’s time, Russian forces have covered that distance and are now beginning to storm the plant area.

Suriyak writes:

In Nikolaevka, Russian army continued to infiltrate the town from the north, where some troops managed to entrench themselves at the Sloviansk Thermal Power Plant and in the houses around the square where Myru Street and Kotsiubynskoho Street meet (48°51'53.0"N 37°45'53.2"E) – the main Ukrainian escape and supply route in the town. Meanwhile, the centre of Nikolaevka has been under heavy Russian shelling since mid-May, which has caused significant damage to many of the high-rise buildings, as forces await the start of assault operations. 🇷🇺🇺🇦

The other major area where Russia has been expending a lot of effort is in the Dobropillya direction, on the Pokrovsk axis. After several major armored assaults in this area, including the one that used tanks armed with Arena-M APS systems, Russian forces managed to embed themselves in the town and are slowly capturing it, according to reports. Recall that Ukraine claimed all the Russian assaults had “failed”, which always seems to happen right before the Russians are recorded as being precisely inside their target of capture.

Suriyak again writes:

In Dobropillya, Russian army continues to infiltrate and build up troops in the outermost streets of the town, so we may see an increase in their control of the eastern part in the coming days. However, it is premature to suggest that the battle will unfold rapidly until Russian forces have secured control of a significant section of the T-05-14 road, from which they can launch an attack on neighbouring Bilozerske. It is then that we might witness a breakthrough in Dobropillya, possibly from the second half of September onwards if the pace of advances on this front is maintained.

As an honorable mention, Russian forces have been chewing through the Orekhov basin on the Zaporozhye axis , closing in from both sides to collapse the entire central pocket. This week Russian forces began an assault on Orekhov itself, with advance units reportedly lodging inside the southeastern outskirts of the settlement, circled in red below:

As can be seen the units on the eastern side of the bowl have been steadily advancing toward the T0408 highway running north of Orekhov.

—

Lastly, to bring things full circle—Berliner Zeitung writes that Zelensky’s time is up, and he should walk away a “hero”.

The authors write that Zelensky has boxed himself into a corner, particularly with the recent removal of Fedorov. Now the only remaining option to salvage what’s left of his legacy is to face the music and resign:

A resignation by Zelenskyy—orderly, voluntary, and prepared in accordance with the constitution rather than forced—would therefore not be a surrender, but the wisest political decision he still has left. Zelenskyy has led Ukraine through the darkest months of its history; he has given the country a face and the world a symbol. No one can take that part of history away from him now. But Zelenskyy is increasingly squandering his political capital. The longer the former actor clings to power—while mountains of corruption files pile up at the Ukrainian anti-corruption agencies NABU and SAPO and the trust of ordinary people dwindles—the more the present reality overshadows the image of the war hero with that of a president who wants to protect his own system at any cost. Zelenskyy should step down.

The authors have a good point: they argue that by dragging things out, Zelensky invites the danger of being forced to leave later on in a far more politically messy, and perhaps even dangerous, series of circumstances, whereas now lies a final chance to still bow out in a controlled manner, with dignity intact.

Since 2022, Ukraine has repeatedly proven itself to be more resilient than people are willing to admit. But the future of Europe’s second-largest country—after Russia—will not be decided solely on the Donbas front. Will Kyiv find the courage to resolve its leadership crisis before Putin does it for Ukraine? Zelenskyy should take action now; his time is up.

With even Western publications now seeing the writing on the wall, it feels increasingly likely that this winter will mark a pivotal turning point in Ukraine. But recall that Fedorov is technically even more fanatical than Zelensky, particularly about tightening mobilization and going after Russia offensively. And so, even with him in power, there is little hope for any kind of cessation of hostilities, but rather an acceleration that could only bring Ukraine’s demise even closer.

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

Presumably so as not to choke out the last vestige of hope for pro-Ukrainians, the article first runs down the laundry list of deep-strikes Ukraine has successfully conducted against Russia, and the economic consequences that have resulted. But then the authors admit that Russia has responded, and Ukraine is much more vulnerable in this mutual scorched-earth blow-for-blow:

But the choking now runs both ways, and Ukraine is more vulnerable. Odesa’s ports, the country’s economic lifeline, were the first to feel the pressure. Threatened at the war’s start, the deep-sea ports reopened first with a Turkish-brokered grain deal, and then with a protected corridor for Ukraine in 2023. Russia kept targeting port infrastructure, but shippers tolerated the risk, moving 210m tonnes over the following three years. The calculus changed in mid-July when Russia began hunting the ships themselves. On July 19th cruise missiles hit and sank a Turkish-owned cargo ship as it left Chornomorsk, one of three big ports in the region. Ten people were killed. Since then every vessel entering or leaving Odesa has been targeted. A few ships still dare make the run, but the ports are commercially dead.

The timing could hardly be worse, with 50m tonnes of harvest still to move. The alternatives are not attractive. “One ship of 100,000 tonnes is equivalent to 5,000 trucks, 5,000 drivers, and 5,000 border procedures,” says Dmytro Barinov, president of the Ukrport association. The situation is worse than it was in 2022, he says, when ports on the Danube offset some of the losses. Now the river’s low water level and Russian attacks make that route harder to use.

Interestingly, the Economist authors go on to debunk Ukraine’s “over-exaggerated” claims of the economic damage inflicted on Russia in Ukraine’s own attacks, claiming the real damage is 1/10th that claimed by Ukraine:

Both sides inflate statistics. Ukraine’s general staff says it has caused $13.5bn-worth of losses to Russia’s refining industry since August 2025. Sergei Vakulenko of the Carnegie Endowment, a think-tank, reckons the real, immediate losses to business is perhaps one-tenth of that, and that it has barely touched state income. “The strikes hurt, but not where or on the timescale Ukraine claims,” he says.

The Economist predicts things will only get worse if Russia persists with this new campaign, as Ukraine’s winter crop sowing season may entirely be cancelled, summarizing the back-and-forth with clear imagery:

“It’s as if we played open football with the Brazilians,” rues one former senior official. “We scored three and are celebrating, but they scored 13.”

The piece ends with a warning that continued Russian strikes could cause a mass exodus out of Kiev, admitting that the overriding plan now is simple survival until next spring—which does not sound very promising or comforting:

“A colleague was telling me how they had a big meeting yesterday called Autumn Actions, about future plans,” he says. “Today it already has a new name: Survive Till April.”

But the most important aspect the piece intentionally conceals is that the war has completely turned against Ukraine. What the Economist and other Western publications have slyly been doing is framing the latest crisis as revolving around Ukraine’s depletion of Patriot missiles, with the natural solution offered being further Western involvement and investment in order to restock these highly coveted interceptors; it’s a kind of deliberately false dialectic.

CNN laments a Ukrainian Patriot launcher sitting abandoned somewhere in a field because it has no missiles to fire—video below:

This is intentional misdirection to conceal the fact that Ukraine is coming undone in virtually every quantifiable way. By creating a false dilemma, and then a manufactured solution for it, they can reframe Ukraine’s disastrous situation as being based on one small correctable issue. And the solution for that issue happens to be something which cunningly seeks to tie depleted Western countries into the conflict further, particularly at a time when interest and political support is drastically waning.

This entirely papers over the stark reality: that Ukraine is bleeding out in every measurable metric, and no one catchall solution exists. The Patriot scam is crafty misdirection meant to perpetuate the narrative that Ukraine is still winning or “turning the tide”, and that Russia is just on the brink of losing, so long as Ukraine is able to be resupplied with more missiles. Nothing could be further from the truth—even when Ukraine had plenty of Patriots, they did little in stopping Russian ballistic attacks, and there yet remains zero proof of a single Iskander actually having been intercepted by these systems.

On the other hand, a German publication along with Euromaidan Press has revealed that Russia shoots down virtually every single Ukrainian Flamingo missile:

Russia has been shooting down most of Ukraine’s best long-range cruise missiles as fast as Ukraine can launch them. Just one or two of the $500,000 Fire Point FP-5 Flamingo missiles have hit their targets in recent weeks.

That means Russian air defenses are working for now. Whether they’ll continue to work is the critical question for Ukrainian strike planners.

Interestingly, they credit the high success rate to Russia’s A-50U AWACs planes, which now regularly patrol the Flamingo routes and can spot them from long range, then delegate fire solutions to appropriate ground units.

Granted, on August 15th Ukraine was able to score a hit on an important Roscosmos enterprise in Samara, Russia, allegedly with two such Flamingo missiles which somehow managed to bypass defenses. It is the Russian Soyuz plant where the rockets which bring Russia’s Starlink-analogue “Rassvet” satellites into space are manufactured.

The enemy is publishing satellite images showing the aftermath of a strike by two FP-5 "Flamingo" missiles on one of the workshops of the Rocket Space Corporation "Progress" in Samara on August 15th.

You can estimate the size of one of the craters.

As a reminder, the Rocket Space Corporation "Progress" is a leading Russian rocket and space enterprise that manufactures "Soyuz" carrier rockets, including those used to launch "Bureau-1440" satellite internet devices into orbit, which are currently causing great concern for Ukraine.

Therefore, it is likely that the enemy will continue to target this enterprise in an attempt to prevent Russia from developing an analogue to the American Starlink system, and also to significantly undermine the entire space industry. Protecting such a unique asset should be a top priority.

But the complex is massive, and the damage is unlikely to have much effect:

These huge industrial spaces have ceilings which are lined with massive metal gantries and other various types of structures. Such attacks usually just blow a hole in the roof, and as can be seen in one of the pictures above where the gantry grid is visible, do not even penetrate past that down to the workshop floor.

The slow speed of the missiles does not give them enough kinetic force to do so—only things like Russia’s hypersonic Iskanders coming down vertically can truly blow through such industrial workshops to the ground floor and beyond.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s frontline situation continues to decline. A prominent channel run by a Ukrainian air assault brigade officer recently shared the following “realist” perspective:

In more troubling news, star ex-Defense Minister Fedorov who Zelensky unpopularly removed in last month’s shake-up has now decided to play hardball, amidst today’s proposal submitted by Zelensky to the Verkhovna Rada for the appointment of Major General Yevhen Khmara to the position of Minister of Defense. Fedorov has released a video calling for Ukrainian elections, essentially a threatening ‘broadside’ against, and a challenge to, Zelensky’s rule:

“Democracy cannot be held hostage by Russia.”

It’s clear that forces are gathering against Zelensky. With no more patsies like Yermak left to throw under the bus, this culminating winter could see the arrival of a political breaking point for the embattled and increasingly isolated and unpopular Ukrainian leader.

For those interested, Ukrainian outlet Strana has published a very thorough and interesting breakdown of the political scheming involved in Fedorov’s latest move, and what it could mean for Ukraine’s political future:

“The coordinated statements from former Defense Minister Fedorov and his support group, regarding a crisis in state governance and the need to hold elections before the end of the war, appear to be a carefully planned tactic ahead of the vote on Khmara’s nomination as Minister of Defense. This effectively rejects the demands of the “cardboard Maidan” movement to reinstate Fedorov.

The maximum goal is to sow doubt among members of parliament (especially among the “servants of the people”): “Is it necessary to vote for Khmara and go against Fedorov, if elections and a change of power are imminent?” Alternatively, it may be to persuade Khmara himself to withdraw from the position.The minimum goal is to, even if there are enough votes for Khmara, give new meaning to the “cardboard Maidan” actions, which will now be held not to bring back Fedorov, but to hold elections.

In Ukraine, during a war, only presidential elections can theoretically be held. Parliamentary elections are prohibited by the Constitution, which cannot be amended during a state of emergency. Presidential elections are also prohibited, but not by the Constitution, but by two laws (the Electoral Code and the law on martial law), which can be amended by a majority vote in the Verkhovna Rada.

In other words, Fedorov and his support group (which is largely composed of grant-funded organizations, previously close to the US Democratic Party, and now supported by Europe – those whom their detractors call “Sorosites”) want to implement a scheme in which elections are held in the country during the war, and their representative (Fedorov) becomes president, thereby allowing them to quickly reshape both the parliamentary majority and the entire power structure.

The tools to force Zelenskyy to do this include protests, criminal cases from the NABU and SAP against his inner circle, and pressure from Europe.

Zelensky is being forced to relinquish power - he is being offered to announce elections, lose them (which is indicated by all the polls), and leave office. It is quite possible that this will be followed by criminal prosecution. And certainly, it will lead to the downfall of his entire economic and political group (”Family”). This is clearly not the future that Zelensky envisions for himself. Therefore, he will likely try to resist. For example, he may order the SBU to strike against the NABU/SAP and their support group (such a scenario is being discussed even within the grant-funded circles).

Another question is whether Europe will exert pressure, and how much. This is a key point, because Zelensky can withstand protests, and even the next criminal cases against Yermak and his associates, but if the Europeans (who are currently financing Ukraine) put pressure directly, it will be much harder to resist. Last year, during the attempt by the Presidential Administration to bring the NABU and SAP under its control, such pressure was exerted. But it was not as strong regarding Fedorov’s resignation. And it is not yet known whether Europe will insist on elections.

Thirdly, polls show that Fedorov is far from the only candidate with a chance of winning. Zaluzhny has a higher approval rating than him, and Budanov is only slightly lower. Are both of them willing to silently watch as Fedorov is brought to power? Or will they fully engage in the struggle, fiercely opposing the former minister? All of this could add elements of radical unpredictability to the process of “restoring democratic processes.”

Fourthly, the topic of “Ukraine needs elections” will begin to gain traction within the country, which could sharply intensify public discussion about Zelensky’s “illegitimacy.” Incidentally, this is what has been constantly stated in Russia, demanding that elections for the President of Ukraine be held in order to have a “legitimate head of state” with whom negotiations can be conducted. And if elections are held during the war, then, formally, the Kremlin’s demand will be fulfilled. Of course, Fedorov is unlikely to soften the negotiating position compared to Zelensky. More likely the opposite – his support group often issues calls for a tightening of mobilization, a reduction in the conscription age, an intensification of the fight against “evaders” and the “fifth column,” etc. However, any of the other “viable” candidates could cautiously (not personally, but their support group) begin to promote the idea that “Zelensky was an obstacle to achieving peace, because Putin didn’t want to talk to him about anything. If I become president, I will be able to negotiate normal terms for ending the war.” And it is not excluded that such a position could prove more popular than various variations of “fighting to the bitter end.”

What can we say? Get the popcorn ready.

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

The piece asserts that the US Navy’s problems began immediately after Iran’s opening salvo of the war, which saw the Navy’s top regional logistics hub in Bahrain go up in smoke from Iranian missiles and drones:

The aircraft carrier U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln’s supply problems began soon after the first day of the war, as Iranian missiles and attack drones fell on a Navy base in Bahrain.

The Iranian attack, retaliation for the U.S.-Israeli assault on Tehran, destroyed much of the base. And as it went up in smoke, so did a major logistics hub that the Navy has relied on for decades.

The Navy needed a Plan B to continue feeding the sailors working around the clock to keep warplanes flying strike missions, and later to maintain a blockade of Iran’s ports.

Israeli outlets had previously covered the fact that the Pentagon allegedly launched a ‘secret’ operation to essentially retreat strategic assets from within immediate range of Iranian strikes toward “protected rear hubs”, which stretched an aging and sclerotic US military to the brink:

The NYT piece goes on:

The loss of the hub in Bahrain has contributed to a host of reported problems on carriers supporting operations against Iran, as Democratic senators raise concerns about the Lincoln’s 5,000 sailors and their nearly nine-month deployment.

NYT details how the ailing USS Lincoln will now be replaced by the USS George Washington, hobbling over from INDOPACOM, leaving the 7th Fleet with no forward deployed carriers on the critical ‘Chinese front’.

This comes amidst reports that USS Benfold had major “engineering issues” that caused it to go dead for four days in the South China Sea:

Guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold (DDG-65) spent four days in the South China Sea without power after an engineering failure, USNI News has learned.

Benfold suffered the engineering casualty resulting in a loss of power last month, Cmdr. Matthew Comer, spokesperson with U.S. 7th Fleet, told USNI News in a statement.

The loss of power meant sailors were without galley services, toilets and air conditioning. Potable water was also affected, Comer said. He did not respond to a question about how sailors handled waste.

Not far away, another US Arleigh Burke destroyer—some having identified it as DDG-74, though it isn’t fully confirmed—was spotted looking in rough shape, reportedly somewhere near Japan:

The state of the US Navy has shocked observers who were not attuned to such a rapid organizational decline, particularly amidst a major conflict wherein the Navy was meant to play the key sustaining role.

Now WaPo reports that US’s Gulf allies are again reconsidering the deployment of US bases on their territory in frustration for Trump’s erratic and amateurish handling of the Iran conflict:

Some have begun to debate the utility of continuing to host large U.S. military installations on their territory.

“Trump started this war,” one Gulf official said, “and we are paying the price.” Like others in this article, he spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive subject. Anger with the United States, the official said, was at its highest point since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in February.

The Gulf states continue to rely on Washington as a close security partner and major arms supplier, and Qatar and Bahrain host large U.S. bases. But the frustration is leading some states to consider new arrangements. These dynamics are unlikely in the near term to significantly reorder the region, analysts say, but some countries have begun to explore their options.

We can conclude that Iran’s strategy has worked: Take out US’s eyes and ears in the region by targeting radar systems, saturate air defenses—whose stocks can’t be regenerated—with cheap drones and throwaway first-gen ballistic missiles; then when the battlefield has been sufficiently shaped, begin throwing in the most advanced and accurate ballistic missiles to hit the actual logistics nodes, base C2 HQs, etc., to cause US to scramble its entire tail out as far out of range as possible. This then strains the degraded logistics chain to the point of breaking, as we’re seeing now with the striking deterioration of morale.

The U.S. military has lost at least 45 MQ-9 Reaper drones during the war with Iran, or roughly 25 percent of its fleet, according to three U.S. officials familiar with the matter.

As noted above, WaPo “confirms” the US lost 45 Reapers, equivalent to 25% of the entire drone fleet. Some have added that the Houthis had already taken out an additional 10% or so, which would likely edge it closer toward 35% total lost in the past year or two.

Interestingly, WaPo reports not all were shot down but many apparently fell victim to Iran’s—perhaps Russian-sourced—EW:

A fourth U.S. official, who like the others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss Pentagon data, said that not all of the lost Reapers were shot down. An unspecified number crashed after their operators’ communications link to the drones failed, the official said.

In truth, the losses likely represent even more than 35% because the total number of drones in the fleet does not necessarily mean they’re all in usable or flyaway shape, at least at any given time.

Amidst the total lack of military options, the US continues to stall for time, plying its charade of “controlling the Strait”. Ex-Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene claimed to have insider info as to what kinds of desperate options are actually now being put on the table in Trump’s manic war room:

Well, when you run out of usable munitions—for both attacking and defending yourself—one supposes that the consideration of an all out nuclear option is only logical—in a manner of sheer desperation. Given that America’s decline is clearly on its final terminal arc, it would almost be a kind of poetic valediction, in a twisted sort of way: the country which rose to ‘superpower’ prominence with the first ever use of nuclear weapons in 1945 comes full circle to reach its waning civilizational surrender with another final nuclear send-off.

More likely though, no such thing will happen, and the only thing resembling nuclear fallout will be the US economy, with the continuation of Trump’s blind intransigence on the Iranian issue. We’ve now seen that he is willing to stake everything on his Hormuz vanity project, including the wellbeing and livelihoods of all Americans.

Yesterday, he remarked that the economy was doing “unbelievably….from the standpoint of Wall Street”—a rather gobsmackingly disconnected bit of messaging. Soon after he explained that rising gas prices are a small price to pay for stopping an “evil country” from having nuclear weapons—all after having promised lower gas prices in 2024:

But many such “small prices” can rather quickly add up to one big price.

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

You’ll recall we covered this factory several times, as far back as 2024, citing a NYT piece at the time which proclaimed the plant would double US production and help reach the goal of 100k monthly shells by 2025:

Here, in the Pentagon’s first new major arms plant built since Russia invaded Ukraine, Turkish workers in orange hard hats are busy unpacking wood crates stenciled with the name Repkon, a defense company based in Istanbul, and assembling computer-controlled robots and lathes.

The factory will soon turn out about 30,000 steel shells every month for the 155-millimeter howitzers that have become crucial to Kyiv’s war effort.

First, a major spoiler: the US never reached even remotely close to their 2025 goals. A recent report from the Department of Defense Inspector General found that the US still struggles to produce a measly 36,000 rounds, which has been the ceiling for the past two years:

Recall at a time when Russia was producing upwards of 250-350k monthly shells per the West’s own estimates, pro-Ukrainian cheerleaders promised us the indomitable American MIC would easily catch up to the impoverished Russians. It turns out the US is physically incapable of course-correcting its obvious industrial decline.

The Military Times piece above noted the US simply can’t source enough metal for the shells:

Shell production requires first building the projectile at a metal parts factory, followed by packing the shell with explosives at another facility. But this means “projectile metal part production is the limiting factor for reaching the 100,000 round-per-month goal for 155-mm artillery rounds,” the report noted.

The Army has not been able to forge enough metal parts to ramp up production of projectiles. In particular, “at a contractor-owned, contractor-operated facility in Mesquite, Texas, the contractor has been unable to produce any projectile metal parts that meet contract specifications,” the report reads.

Now the ProPublica bombshell tells an even more shocking story. The greatly heralded General Dynamics plant, which was said to be the most advanced of its kind, utilizing a state-of-the-art fully automated Turkish production line, has gone kaput.

Are you surprised?

Let’s dig in to the fiasco.

Read more

It calls to mind the popular description of the fall of Rome, one variation of which reads something like: “The average Roman citizen hadn’t noticed their empire had collapsed until one day the roads and bridges simply stopped being repaired.”

In this case, American society lives in a state of Normalcy Bias, as spray-tanned politicians bleat about some kind of ‘Golden Age’, while virtually everything associated with the American empire slowly goes to hell in a hand basket.

The state of affairs is breathtaking, to say the least.

The US Navy operating against Iran continues to leave observers awestruck amidst new reports of sailors literally trying to jump off the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier:

Desperate sailors aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln have tried to jump overboard during an extended deployment in the Middle East, their families say.

The aircraft carrier, crewed by around 5,000 sailors and Marines, has been deployed since November 21 but more lately has been supporting U.S. military operations in the war with Iran. The deployment had been expected to end in May but has been extended with no current return date, families told The Military Times.

This comes directly from the families of the stricken sailors themselves:

Annabelle Loma, the wife of a sailor serving on the Abraham Lincoln, told the publication her husband is now on medical hold after trying to jump from the carrier.

“He’s scared,” Loma said. “He thinks he’ll get a dishonorable discharge and, just because he was burnt out, his 13-year career is ruined, just like that.”

Maria Rodriguez, another sailor’s wife, says that her husband prevented another man from jumping overboard. Rodriguez told The Military Times her husband held the shipmate’s arms and hauled them onto the deck, with three other sailors eventually running to help.

Reports claim the conditions of shortages, long work hours, and low morale aboard the ship are so horrific that a mental health crisis has erupted, with sailors wishing they “did not wake up tomorrow.”

From the above MS NOW (formerly MSNBC) piece:

US Congressman Mike Levin writes:

From the Cradle:

The state of affairs seems to correspond to the various rumors of sabotage aboard other ships we’ve heard about for months now.

On the more speculative side, Iran’s PressTV claims ‘insider knowledge’ of a deadly brawl that broke out aboard the ship, leaving seven sailors dead:

Seven US Navy personnel have reportedly been killed and several others wounded in a violent clash aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, as growing unrest among the carrier’s crew has exposed mounting pressure inside the US military amid a prolonged deployment.

The incident erupted after an adviser to US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Brad Cooper boarded the carrier to address mounting complaints from crew members following protests by their families over the ship’s prolonged deployment, according to Tasnim News Agency, citing an informed military source.

The adviser was reportedly met with boos and had water bottles thrown at him while addressing a gathering of personnel.

The confrontation subsequently escalated into a fight among crew members involving knives and other bladed weapons, leaving seven personnel dead and several others wounded, according to the source.

Given the lack of credible sources, it’s likely just a tongue-in-cheek propaganda shot across the bow by Iran—but at this point, who can tell?

Now as if the optics of the war weren’t bad enough, news came yesterday that Trump was forced to hightail it out of Turkey via the ignominious escape route of hiding in a food catering truck, after Iranian threats to Airforce One were allegedly detected.

Not long after, a Trump desperate to remain placid and “in control”, was spotted casually teeing off in Bedminster, NJ with a full-on AN/TWQ-1 Avenger mobile anti-air suite armed with Stinger missiles escorting him around the greens:

These are surreal optics.

Particularly at a time when Western media jeers at Putin for allegedly dotting his “Lake Valdai retreat” with an AD shield, and mocks Mojtaba Khamenei for “hiding like a rat”. The President of the United States of America is playing golf enwreathed in concertina wire with a mobile surface-to-air battery as his caddy cart, only days after escaping Turkey in a meat locker, all while US sailors literally fling themselves from the gunwales of Navy flagships to escape a war that has seen every American base in the region get debasified.

Folks. These are not normal times—we may be in the end game here.

Normalcy Bias has prevented us from truly appreciating the extraordinary and historic events unfolding before us. The United States Empire seems to have genuinely entered its terminal arc.

Underscoring the troubles are reports that US’s top general Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine believes that the US, essentially, has no further options in Iran left and that a face-saving off-ramp is necessary to prevent disaster:

Over the last few weeks, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine has privately made clear to other top Trump advisers that the US needs to find an off-ramp from the war with Iran — because the military options on the table to escalate the conflict could backfire and airpower alone is unlikely to achieve President Donald Trump’s stated objectives, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

“Caine is looking for an off ramp,” one of the sources said bluntly.

In light of this, Trump has told reporters the US is now “low-keying” it in Iran, which is euphemism for avoiding a humiliating large-scale attempt at subduing Iran, and instead pursuing economic pressure because it allows him to maintain the illusion that US has some kind of initiative via control over Hormuz.

“We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.”

[Trump] stressed that Iran “is in very bad shape” economically and has no money to pay its troops. The U.S. naval blockade has exacerbated the Iranian regime’s economic crisis, Trump said.

Trump has characterized the US’s putative control of Hormuz as an impenetrable “wall of steel”, despite earlier admitting that there may be some pesky mines preventing skittish carriers from sending ships through:

Many other connected experts have expressed the opposite—that there is no evidence much oil is flowing through the Omani route which Trump alleges to be facilitating with his tin wall:

WSJ now reports that Trump essentially knows he’s lost and is willing to walk away from the Iran war even without a nuclear deal, as long as Iran is kind enough to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that has become the bugbear of his entire presidential legacy.

From the article:

WASHINGTON—For weeks, President Trump had been laying the groundwork to declare victory in the Iran war should Tehran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even floating the idea privately to senior aides that he’s willing to walk away without a nuclear deal, U.S. officials said.

But that scaled-back objective became more difficult when Iran insisted Saturday on its highest price yet for permitting the free flow of traffic in the waterway, seeking billions of dollars in U.S. payments, the removal of American troops from the region and an end of the U.S. naval blockade, among other things.

They go on to note that Iran recognizes Trump’s dilemma and is deliberately making the costs ever higher to prevent Trump from taking a face-saving bow-out, given that Iran now has all the cards and controls the entire play:

“Iran’s recent hardline demands for reopening the strait make it increasingly difficult for the president to manufacture a face-saving off-ramp from the conflict,” said Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at the Eurasia Group consulting firm, said, “The Iranians fully believe Trump wants out and is focused on opening the strait, which is why they are playing hardball.”

With midterms coming up and gas prices still through the roof, Trump is running out of time in the game of chicken against the adversary he has “destroyed” five times over.

Now, with less than three months until the midterm elections and the price of gasoline still much higher than it was before the war started in late February, Trump has been looking for ways to tell the American public that the war is won.

One supposes the “nuclear dust” will again be deemed of no importance.

For Iran, its victory in the war has inaugurated a whole new phase of national development:

An IRGC representative stated that Iran’s ballistics are now being manufactured faster than they’re being fired, and that Iran can sustain the war indefinitely:

A senior IRGC adviser said Wednesday that all Iranian weapons, ammunition and equipment are now domestically produced, that ballistic missiles are being manufactured faster than they are being fired, and that Iran could sustain the war for years.

Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naghdi, senior adviser to the IRGC commander-in-chief, told state television that the “factor of our victory in the war with America is the power of our faith.”

As part of the new doctrine Iran is reportedly opening the possibility of taking the war to “enemy soil”, perhaps in a sense mirroring Ukraine’s recent strategy vis-a-vis Russia:

Iran new military doctrine tasks IRGC to attack enemy in its soil

TABNAK, Aug. 12 – Iran’s IRGC must be able to take the war into enemy lands, a senior commander said Wednesday, adding that the IRGC had been ordered to build the capability for offensive operations beyond the country’s borders.

Things could not be going worse for Trump’s Hormuz sideshow.

With the Economist showing record low approval in latest polls amidst increasingly humiliating optics, one can’t help but wonder how much longer Trump can put on his Leslie Nielsen act.

Are you not entertained?

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

He stated that over the course of the Ukrainain conflict, Russia has managed to turn every single Western wunderwaffen or “superweapon” into useless junk:

His actual words in detail:

“By the time of 2026, Ukraine had already deployed every single type of weaponry—except perhaps for Tomahawk missiles, nuclear weapons, aircraft carriers, and F-35s, as well as applied all of NATO’s highly complex operational doctrines…

And all the available resources have now been completely exhausted. Russia has managed to find a specific countermeasure to every one of them.”

He goes on to give an example, where the HIMARS system was initially a surprise success that, according to him, single-handedly enabled Ukraine to liberate the Kherson region in the fall of 2022. But only a single month later, he says, the HIMARS was rendered completely useless.

His words:

“Exactly a month later, [the HIMARS] were turned into a completely pointless thing, that’s simply impossible to use.”

Note in particular the part of the statement which flies most under the radar. Not only the weaponry was entirely nullified by Russia, but NATO’s “highly complex operational doctrines”. In short, the entire NATO system which was designed to defeat the USSR and then Russia, which includes the transition from the so-called “inferior Soviet school” of thinking, the “top-down command”, the adherence to NATO’s infamous “mission command” small unit initiative, and all the other tropes we’ve seen developed about the Russian way of war. Ukraine was converted to a souped-up version of a NATO force with more funding and access thrown at it than likely any other single NATO member, and all of it was still repudiated and neutralized on the field by continued Russian innovation.

Zaluzhny’s statements segue us into an interesting new development regarding Russia’s use of the Arena-M APS (Active Protection System) for its tanks.

In recent weeks, Russian tanks have finally been spotted shipping from Uralvagonzavod, as well as on the front, with the mythical Arena-M system, in development for a long time. Russian news had been reporting that the upgraded new versions of the Arena system, called Arena-M, would begin being installed on various tanks from as far back as 2023. Last month Izvestia reported that soon T-72B3A tanks equipped with the system would be in use during assaults on the front.

They will support the assault groups

Military units operating in the special military operation zone have received T‑72B3A tanks equipped with Arena‑M active protection systems. The armored vehicles and crews are now being actively prepared for use in combat operations. The specially protected tanks will be tasked with supporting the actions of our assault groups conducting attacks on the enemy’s fortified areas, Izvestia has learned.

A video from about a week ago showing a T-90M during factory trials at UVZ with the Arena-M system installed, visible as the small boxes at the top rear and front of the turret:

T-90M tank equipped with the "Arena-M" active protection system (APS), undergoing factory trials at a testing ground near the UVZ plant.

➖There are reports that the tanks being supplied by UVZ are equipped with components in a mixed manner: some vehicles receive the standard active protection system, while others receive an updated "grill" and an enhanced package of dynamic and anti-cumulative protection (including reinforced screens and engine compartment protection).

➖As for the T-80BV tanks, they are receiving a modernized turret and more sophisticated design solutions for protection, which differ from the standards of the T-72/T-90 series.

➖Work is underway on all-aspect protection of tanks against hits from FPV drones, but it is still unknown when a complete solution will be presented that can provide reliable protection for the vehicle in combat for a significant period.

As a first quick background, the Arena-M was originally created to stop various munitions like ATGMs and Javelins, including from “top attack” mode. These are obviously no longer a problem compared to the pervasiveness of drones. But here is test footage of an Arena-M system on a T-72B3M intercepting a small missile from a top-attack and direct trajectory as example of how it works:

The system works by having a small millimeter-wave doppler radar which detects incoming projectiles and then launches a hard-kill countermeasure that is timed and fused to explode near the tank which showers the incoming projectile with shrapnel.

Now, in a recent assault in the Dobropillya direction out of Shakhove, near Pokrovsk, Russian forces reportedly used tanks with these Arena-M systems for the first time. Footage released by the Azov Corp which defends the area showed one possible shoot down of an FPV drone by the Arena system:

But the shocker was that major pro-Ukrainian figures which included American analyst Rob Lee and a Ukrainian Special Operations veteran Dmytro Putiata spoke to the Azov units involved in the attack and learned that the Arena-M system actually worked remarkably well:

Putiata confirmed the units told him that one Arena system destroyed 7 FPVs and that on average it took up to 20 FPV drones to destroy a tank.

Their original thread was in response to a thread by another Ukrainian tank expert who confirmed that the only reason the tanks were hit was due to the total expenditure of the Arena-M canister ammunition:

In short, it sounds like the Arena system essentially shot down everything in sight and only after running out of ammo were the tanks able to be hit.

Here is the section of the video posted by the Azov Corps of the Russian attack for reference:

How do we know the canister modules were empty? Because when they have not been shot or dispensed, they are sealed closed like so:

Now look at the screenshot of the video, you can see the modules on both sides are open and empty, because they have been expended:

The above Ukrainian tank expert Andrei Tarasenko believes the limited ammunition will not allow the Arena to be useful in modern conditions wherein drone saturation is simply too high. But one can never guess the ingenuity of Russian engineers in figuring out solutions to put more ammo or more launchers themselves on the tank.

Just listen to Zaluzhny’s opening talk, wherein he credits Russian ingenuity in figuring out countermeasures to all of the West’s top systems. The interesting thing about the Arena-M’s now-confirmed success is that the hard kill mechanism is able to do what even the best EW cannot: kill fiber-optic or even autonomous AI-guided drones.

The canister charges cannot be expensive to make themselves, which means theoretically such a system with massive amounts of rounds should be feasible to take out drone after drone from every possible direction. Now imagine several such tanks and perhaps even a dedicated Arena-M vehicle mounted with nothing but these systems traveling in a tighter formation that forms a kind of phalanx “wall” of countermeasures. Nothing would ever be 100% foolproof but it could cause enemy drone expenditures to go through the roof exponentially on each assault.

Russia’s innovations continue to roll out. Multiple Ukrainian outlets reported earlier today that Russia’s native “Starlink” system, known as the Rassvet constellation, has been deploying much faster than expected, as per a top Ukrainian intelligence chief:

Russia is accelerating the deployment of its Rassvet satellite communications system, a domestic equivalent of Starlink, faster than previously planned, Ukraine’s military intelligence deputy chief, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, said on Aug. 10.

“Moscow is implementing Rassvet, effectively a Russian analogue of the Starlink system. And they have begun launching it significantly faster than was envisaged in their plans,” Skibitskyi said in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.

As we had concluded in an earlier analysis a week or two ago, intel chief Skibitskyi notes that Russia is now expected to boost the constellation to 292 by next year, which is even more than the ~250 cited earlier as the baseline for allowing Russia to have total 24/7 signal coverage over Ukraine:

Skibitskyi added that Russia plans to build a constellation of 292 satellites by 2027 and expand it to 924 satellites by 2035.

This development has the Ukrainians quite worried:

In an interview with AP published Aug. 10, Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces Robert “Madyar” Brovdi described the development as a “risk for the entire planet.”

“Because a dictatorship will gain access to information across the whole globe,” he added.

These are certainly interesting developments. In particular the advent and tested success of the Arena-M system could potentially pave the way for a new phase of the war, where the armored assault returns to some form of prominence.

But share your thoughts, will it reinvigorate armored assaults in future offensives, or die out as more of a novelty and test platform due to the simple intractability of the drone swarm issue?

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

The Russian strike campaign against Odessa and surrounding infrastructure has been sending the Ukrainian commentariat into a panic. Major Ukrainian supply chain distributors have been admitting that Russian attacks have wiped out their warehouses as stores begin to empty—a clear repercussion of Zelensky’s campaign against Russia’s Wildberries:

A Ukrainian analytical center reports that Russia’s attacks on the ports have caused Ukraine’s iron output to decline by up to 35%, and that 2026 is the most difficult year since the start of the war:

Part of the iron ore capacity is likely to be put into idle mode, and output in this sector may be reduced by 35%.%

At first glance, the shutdown of the sea corridor in July 2026 can be perceived as a repetition of the already experienced scenario. It’s not a big deal. In the end, the Ukrainian steel industry has already withstood the complete blockade of sea exports in 2022-and survived. But this comparison is incorrect. According to a combination of factors, 2026 is a more difficult year for the industry than the first, most acute year of a full-scale war. It’s not the fact that the sea is closed, but what has changed around it.

There continue to be various rumors that Russia intends to put a final finishing blow on Kiev, if not all of Ukraine. Ukrainian experts believe on top of power plants, this winter Russia plans to strike various water and waste facilities to shut Kiev down.

Allegedly, this has already begun to some extent, according to Ukrainian Pravda:

The Russians are relentlessly striking the only aeration station that treats wastewater from Kyiv and surrounding towns using ballistic missiles in an apparent attempt to trigger a humanitarian catastrophe.

“The Russians have once again struck the Bortnychi Aeration Station with ballistic missiles. This is yet another strike over the past year, demonstrating a systematic campaign against a single target. The Bortnychi Aeration Station is the only wastewater treatment facility serving Kyiv and the surrounding cities, towns and settlements in the oblast.”

Details: The facility has a design capacity of approximately 1.8 million cubic metres per day, and its actual workload ranges from 600,000 to 900,000 cubic metres per day. There is no backup system.

Many other rumors are growing.

Several Russian channels claim Surovikin is being welcomed back to lead a major ‘deathblow’ campaign against Ukraine:

Everything is completely speculative, so don’t hold your breath. But the point is to get a sense of the shifting tone of the war.

Ukrainian channels have passed rumor that Russia may even begin completely splitting Kiev into two parts by eliminating its bridges:

Now MSM channels have been shrieking that North Korean ballistic missile units will be deploying to Russia to assist in the new campaign of destroying Ukraine’s infrastructure by firing their own North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles:

LONDON, Aug 5 (Reuters) - A North Korean missile unit has begun deploying to western Russia and could ​be equipped with 120 ballistic missiles and six launchers for strikes against Ukraine, an official at Ukraine’s military intelligence agency said.

Ukraine is very short of high-end air ‌defences and Russia has tried to exploit this by using more ballistic missiles, which are particularly hard to shoot down.

While some dismiss the above is propaganda, it would make logical sense for Russia to use this current period of Ukraine’s total anti-missile defense deficit to saturate the country with as much ballistic damage as possible.

Ukrainian channels are inflamed at Zelensky for provoking this new unprecedented Russian blowback on their country:

No one can seem to find any hope for Ukraine’s situation lately. Erstwhile triumphalist and now-resident-doomer Julian Roepcke wrote a sobering analytical piece after having just visited Ukraine and spoken to many soldiers and officers.

Read the full translated text below, particularly the bolded parts:

#Analysis

After another week in Ukraine, numerous conversations with soldiers—including three colonels of the Ukrainian armed forces—and many positive but also sobering impressions, here is my assessment of the current situation in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

The cautious optimism of early summer has largely evaporated on the Ukrainian side. As recently as June, there was hope that the intensifying Ukrainian attacks on Russian logistics in the occupied territories and deep in the Russian hinterland could sustainably weaken the invasion army and bring its offensive to a halt. This expectation has not yet been fulfilled.

The extraordinarily high Russian casualty figures since the start of the year have also only partially produced the hoped-for strategic effect so far. While the pace of the Russian advance has noticeably slowed, it has not been stopped.

At the same time, numerous soldiers report a clear intensification of Russian attacks on positions at and behind the front. Russia is now deploying significantly more kamikaze drones, glide bombs, and long-range weapons than just a few months ago. The approach increasingly feels systematic: forest belt by forest belt, village by village, and bridge by bridge are being destroyed to sustainably weaken Ukrainian logistics behind the front.

Even far behind the front, a new quality of Russian warfare is emerging. While Russia has frequently targeted gas stations, logistics centers, or civilian infrastructure at random in recent years, Ukrainian officers now observe a markedly more systematic campaign against the Ukrainian supply structure. Notably, Russia is now attacking logistics centers on a similar scale to what Ukraine does on Russian territory—albeit with far greater firepower. Many of these facilities are located along key highways. During our trip, we passed numerous logistics sites that had been destroyed just hours or days earlier.

Unlike Ukraine, which predominantly uses precision weapons for such strikes, Russia often deploys ballistic missiles or entire swarms of Shahed drones. The result is far greater destruction around the actual targets, along with correspondingly high casualty figures.

From the numerous conversations with Ukrainian soldiers, two distinct assessments of the further course of the war emerged.

The more optimistic view is: If the West—particularly Germany—continues to support Ukraine consistently, this war can ultimately be won. The underlying conviction is that the economic and industrial capacity of the Western supporters could lead to a resource advantage over Russia in the long term.

However, I only partially share this assessment. Russia continues to receive substantial military and industrial support from China, North Korea, and Iran. These factors make a prolonged war of attrition extremely challenging from a Ukrainian perspective.

The second, far more sobering analysis from a Ukrainian officer was: Russia must be pushed into a domestic political crisis faster than it can achieve its operational goals in Ukraine.

In his view, the momentum on the battlefield remains predominantly on the Russian side. Particularly in the Kramatorsk and Sloviansk areas.

According to this, the Ukrainian deep strikes primarily serve the purpose—or the hope—that Russia must abandon its war aims politically or economically before it can fully achieve its military objectives. In the best case, through a downfall of Putin from within his own ranks. Whether that ever happens, “we’ll only know on the day it does,” the officer said.

The key thesis proves that Zelensky has been waging his latest campaign against Russian civilian targets in order to try and push Russia into a domestic-political crisis.

Let’s repeat the section again:

The second, far more sobering analysis from a Ukrainian officer was: Russia must be pushed into a domestic political crisis faster than it can achieve its operational goals in Ukraine.

In his view, the momentum on the battlefield remains predominantly on the Russian side. Particularly in the Kramatorsk and Sloviansk areas.

Again, they believe some magical “downfall of Putin” can be brought about by bombing Wildberries warehouses—a strategic assay so intellectually bankrupt as to be prima facie comical.

According to this, the Ukrainian deep strikes primarily serve the purpose—or the hope—that Russia must abandon its war aims politically or economically before it can fully achieve its military objectives. In the best case, through a downfall of Putin from within his own ranks. Whether that ever happens, “we’ll only know on the day it does,” the officer said

And of course, Roepcke reaches the natural conclusion:

Notably, Russia is now attacking logistics centers on a similar scale to what Ukraine does on Russian territory—albeit with far greater firepower.

If presidents can be brought down by warehouse destruction, does this mean Zelensky’s on his last legs, going by their own logic?

His final conclusion:

After this week in Ukraine, my impression therefore remains ambivalent. The Ukrainian armed forces are impressively rapidly advancing their capabilities in many areas. At the same time, Russia continues to be able to sustain its offensive despite enormous losses and maintain the military pressure. Based on the impressions of many frontline soldiers, there can be no talk yet of a strategic turning point in favor of Ukraine.

So, the current narrative du jour is that one consolation of the current catastrophic situation for Ukraine is that Russia is still experiencing “enormous losses”. Except that loss trackers continue to show that Ukraine’s losses are lopsided in favor to Russia.

Recorded vehicular losses from the month of July:

As a capstone, the Spectator believes a turning point has indeed been reached in the war, but just not one that’s in Ukraine’s favor:

An important turning point has been reached in Russia’s war on Ukraine. But unfortunately for Kyiv, it’s not the “tide is turning” in Ukraine’s favor narrative that Volodymyr Zelensky has been pushing ever since his long-range drone attacks began smashing oil refineries and logistics warehouses deep inside Russia and sinking dozens of ships in the Sea of Azov.

Rather, last night not one of the 27 ballistic missiles fired by Russia at and around Kyiv was shot down. At least 17 people were killed and a series of huge warehouses and major Ukrainian retail outlets were devastated.

The article goes into the arithmetic behind Ukraine’s lack of air defense, noting that even with additional supplies it will not come close to abbreviating Russian ballistic swarms.

Ukraine’s Serhiy Flash discussed Russia’s latest strike, explaining that Russia will continue launching ~100 ballistics per month at Ukraine.

The Spectator goes on:

But far more worrying for Zelensky is Russia’s ability to continue its systematic destruction of Ukraine’s energy, water, petrol distribution and heating infrastructure. During an earlier phase of tit-for-tat, Russian short-range missiles smashed up almost every gas station in Kharkiv province and beyond, forcing drivers to carry spare cans in order to make it to less devastated areas. Now the Kremlin has set about wrecking not only retail facilities in retaliation for Wildberries but also taking out vital water aqueducts and heating pipes. Four winters of regular attacks have wiped out roughly 61 percent of Ukraine’s electricity generating capacity according to the International Center for Ukrainian Victory. DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private power company, had lost 90 percent of its generation capacity while every one of 15 of Ukraine’s gas- and coal-powered thermal power plants have been damaged or destroyed, with their share of the energy mix collapsing to around five percent.

Well, unfortunately for Ukraine, Russia’s firepower continues to set new records:

It’s clear the future trends ever bleaker for Ukraine.

But you never know, there are some bright ideas on the Western side that could decisively turn the conflict around:

What do you think, could it work?

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

Responsible Statecraft has published a new indepth interview with Kagan wherein he gives us some provocative statements.

The piece begins precisely around the idea of the forced pivot, as the interviewer’s first question digs at whether Kagan has undergone a “conversion” from his previous hawkish neocon stripe.

In his answer, Kagan gives the first eye-opening revelation into the mental gymnastics the PNAC archons now regularly utilize to justify their failed world views. Hindsight being 20/20, he now says that blowback was always part of the arithmetic—a cheap cop-out meant to excuse their failed experiment as intentional as a kind of face-saving ploy:

Robert Kagan: I don’t think so, because I never denied that blowback was a reality. In fact, my writing shows that when the United States is out there acting in the world, Americans tend to not even be aware of the effect of American power on other nations. And so they’re constantly shocked whenever the use of American power leads to a response. The best example is Japan and Pearl Harbor. Many Americans acted like it was out of the blue when Japan attacked us when, in fact, the U.S. pursued policies that were likely to lead to a Japanese attack. The same was true of 9/11 in the sense that it was at least in part a response to the American presence in the Middle East.

The question is, do you act even though you know that there is going to be blowback because the stakes are worth it. So, I never doubted it and, as I say, recognizing the effect of American power on other nations is an important part of my history.

Kagan gets immediately defensive over the interviewer’s perfectly natural callout of his hyper-interventionist advocacy. It’s clear that right from the get go, Kagan is setting a defensive tone as a kind of apologia and historical revisionism of his now-defunct former ideology.

Di Caro: Yet for decades you have advocated for U.S. interventionism and, in the case of the Iraq invasion of 2003, a preemptive war…

Kagan: Wait a minute. Can we stop right there? When you say that I’ve advocated for intervention for decades, what in particular are you talking about? I certainly supported the interventions in Bosnia and Kosovo, but it’s not like I was just calling for intervention everywhere at all times. That’s a shorthand that you use, but it’s what people think, you know?

He goes on to even outright reject the label of “neocon”, and for a reason so ludicrous it must simply be seen to be believed:

Oy vey!

Someone is extremely defensive over the repudiation of what is essentially his life’s work. This is nothing more than a desperate attempt to salvage credibility.

The keen interviewer pushes deeper, asking Kagan if he’s reconsidered his past support for US wars—most notably, Iraq—particularly in light of recent events and the disastrously unfolding Iran debacle. In accordance with the extremely tetchy tenor of his responses, Kagan again reverts to knee-jerk defensiveness:

Kagan: To answer your question, I haven't really fundamentally changed my mind. These are different circumstances. You'd have to assume that I had some kind of doctrine of always invading the Middle East whenever possible. But that has not been my doctrine.

It’s clear he realizes how bad he looks in hindsight and can’t help but adopt an almost whiny tone in attempting to rewrite his key role in America’s geopolitical depletion.

Most interestingly, he then springs into a rant about why the Iraq war was in fact justified because Iraq had done something even Iran would not dream of now doing: invaded multiple neighbors, including Iran itself, and fatefully, Kuwait. Iraq was therefore a threat in need of neutralization for this transgression.

But the irony is lost on Kagan: Iran may not have invaded anyone, but one Middle Eastern country certainly has been bombing and invading virtually every one of its neighbors. Israel has recently unjustifiably invaded both Syria and Lebanon, not to mention Gaza. Wouldn’t that—by the logic of his own justifications—mean Israel is itself in need of intervention?

The next exchange is pure gold as Kagan scurries from accountability for what the interviewer cites as a generational disaster that caused 180,000+ civilian deaths, chaos in the Middle East, millions of displaced people across the region, trillions of US dollars lost, et cetera.

Kagan first dismisses the numbers by explaining this all happened over the course of 10 years, as if a “gradual” genocide and ethnic cleansing is excusable compared to an instantaneous one. But when he’s pressed further, his shifty response is pure political pilpul:

Read more

Russia’s recent attack on Kiev revealed a catastrophic situation as Ukraine no longer has any Patriots to stop Russian ballistic missile attacks. The interception rate admitted-to by Kiev was as follows:

1/27 ballistic missiles of the 9M723 OTRK “Iskander-M” / KN-23;

0/2 anti-radar missiles Kh-31P;

0/4 anti-ship cruise and hypersonic cruise missiles 3M55 “Onyx” / 3M22 “Zircon”;

In total, 83.2% of UAVs have been neutralized.

Top Ukrainian analyst channels now predict that Russia will soon go up from producing 70 ballistic missiles per month to over 150. This will leave Ukrainian infrastructure devastated as no current hope even exists for solving the Patriot problem, and no other available system besides the Patriot can engage Russian Iskanders.

Zelensky and his people know this, which is why now at the tail end of his failed 40-day operation he has begun begging Russia for a new ceasefire:

Interestingly, recall that just weeks ago Putin had revealed Ukraine was pleading with Russia for various types of ceasefires via secret back channels. People on the pro-UA side laughed and dismissed this—now it has become official reality, proving Putin rarely, if ever, lies about these things.

The other big reveal concerns something we predicted even here weeks ago when Ukraine first started having ostensible “successes” of some kind on the battlefield. The idea is that, any time Ukraine seems to advance or push Russian forces back, it is generally a short-lived effort where Ukraine expends a lot of saved-up resources and reserves which leads to immediate repercussions after the PR window closes.

Now many analysts are contending that this is exactly what happened recently. Zelensky strategically chose to use all his reserves of man and materiel for the 40-day PR operation to simulate some kind of initiative for a ‘victorious’ Ukraine so that allies could pressure Putin into ceasefire and negotiations. But now that this has failed, Ukraine is experiencing a precipitous front-line collapse where Russian troops have begun advancing faster than any recent time.

Lost Armour has revealed that Russian advances for July were the highest in virtually two years:

Russia recorded its highest rate of advance since October 2024.

Results for July 2026 on the map: the largest advance since October 2024 – over 728 km² of liberated territory.

In July 2026, the Russian Armed Forces liberated more than 728 km² of territory in the area of the special military operation, which is the highest monthly figure since October 2024.

As a caveat of journalistic due diligence, we must mention that other Russian sources like the prominent Creamy Caprice mapper have the July figure much lower than the above. But either way, it is clear to see on a daily level that Russian advances have been massively picking up on every front, from the north Kharkov-Sumy region, to Kupyansk and the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomerate, down to the intersections of Zaporozhye-Dnipro-Donetsk.

From a popular American mercenary operating in Ukraine:

At the same time, the situation for Odessa has become worse than ever, with Russia having entirely landlocked Ukraine.

A Western journalist who just returned from the area reports:

I just returned from Odesa, where an unprecedented Russian aerial offensive has completely blocked Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, threatening an economic disaster that, at the moment, appears underestimated by international media.

In the city, one witnesses paradoxical scenes, with Russian drones and missiles flying over beaches full of swimmers, or being shot down off the coast, in view of thousands of smartphones pointed at the sky.

For about ten days now, Moscow has begun systematically targeting all vessels approaching the port, with no regard for nationality. Now, neither captains nor shipowners dare to approach the three major Ukrainian ports: Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdenny.

For Ukrainian farmers, it risks being a disaster. With exports blocked at the peak of the harvest season, their warehouses are overflowing, and agricultural commodity prices in the country have collapsed. With the sunflower harvest starting in just a few days, the situation risks becoming critical.

One of the breakthroughs has been the use of Russia’s latest low-cost cruise missile, which some people call a missile-drone: the S8000 Banderol.

“This is a very dangerous gizmo,” Vlasiuk told journalists as he showed off part of a Banderol fired last year. “The majority of strikes on the port infrastructure in Odesa are with Banderols.”

Vlasiuk said his office determined that 80% of strikes on the ports of greater Odesa — including the neighboring Chornomorsk and Pivden — involved Banderols. The missile’s 150 kilogram (330 pound) warhead is bigger than that of Shaheds, and they fly at speeds too fast for Ukraine’s newest interceptor drones to catch.

The missile is able to be launched by ground launchers, as well. But the true breakthrough comes from its usage via the Russian Orion or Inokhodets heavy drone, which allows Russia to get assets close to Odessa without having to risk valuable pilots and S-34 planes.

Orion seen with the Banderol attached:

All the while, the bad news simply continues to roll out for Ukraine. Multiple outlets report that Ukraine’s diplomatic and political gusto is waning.

El Pais writes that European sanctions against Russia have peaked, and that governments soon will increasingly begin prioritizing their own wellbeing over shooting themselves in the foot just to try and “hurt” Russia:

The EU is not far from reaching its “sanctions peak,” according to Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a researcher at the economic think tank Bruegel—that is, the point at which governments begin to prioritize their national economic interests over new restrictions on Russia. “What’s left are, let’s say, some very thin slices of salami,” he explains in a phone conversation. The most sensitive measures—those that have been left untouched in two dozen previous rounds of sanctions—are usually precisely those that a member state has a reason to block—and the actual power to veto, since sanctions are approved unanimously.

Telegraph likewise warns that the entire coalition for helping Ukraine is on its death bed:

With Starmer gone, Macron facing his last year in office, and Germany’s Merz dangling by a thread, the club of Ukraine’s main cheerleaders is in tatters—and the future looks ever-less promising:

The domestic stability of candidates who could fill that void, such as Germany’s Friedrich Merz, remains in doubt. Meanwhile, leadership hopefuls who are more sympathetic to Russia, such as Marine Le Pen, wait in the wings and could reshape Europe’s support for Ukraine next year.

She has previously promised to remove France from Nato’s military command, lift sanctions on Russia and urge Ukraine to agree to a peace deal on Moscow’s terms.

Far-Left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is seen as one of her chief rivals in the ballot set for nine months’ time, has gone even further, pledging to withdraw from the Western military alliance.

As time goes by, it seems more and more that Putin’s strategic patience may be paying off, as the old hostile European structures slowly collapse like an iceberg calving into the sea.

But now, there is an even more dire threat on Ukraine’s horizon.

Over the last two days there has been a surge of articles confirming something we ourselves had posited here just a few weeks ago: that Russia’s new Rassvet satellite system (known as the “Russian Starlink”) is in fact already being positioned to allow some limited capabilities over Ukraine—and those capabilities will soon grow rapidly.

From a Ukrainian source:

They urgently write that the satellites have already achieved two hour-long communication windows per day:

Russia’s Bureau 1440 Rassvet satellites already provide at least two” communication windows “ per day over Ukraine lasting more than an hour each.

Vladimir Stepanets, an expert in satellite communications, told Militarny about this after analyzing the trajectories of Russian satellites.

“We see that in fact a chain with good coverage has already been formed, which forms such good coverage about twice a day, but in fact there are more of these arrivals, that is, several such chains can fly with coverage of certain regions at intervals of about once every hour and a half. But what is important is that these satellites already provide quite dense coverage, “ he said.

Watch below:

“This could have serious consequences for the Defense Forces if they do not deploy effective countermeasures by that time.”

Detractors argue that Starlink has over 10,000 satellites in orbit, but:

1. That’s in order to get global commercial-level coverage everywhere.

2. As we had already explained, Starlinks are smaller and in lower orbits, and more of them are required.

The new Russian satellites are larger and in a higher orbit, which decreases the need for as many of them. Most importantly, they don’t need to have global coverage, but rather just coverage over Ukraine.

The Militarnyi piece also notes that Russia has finalized development of the actual satellite communications terminals as well, which look similar to Starlink’s ones:

According to open sources, the company has already completed the development of the basic version of the terminal and is preparing to launch mass production.

Given the characteristics of the terminals and the general context of the project development, we can expect that after mass production is established, they will quickly fall into the Russian troops. the likely use will not be limited to ground-based kits.

It is worth preparing for the appearance of such terminals not only at control points, vehicles or ships, but also on strike and reconnaissance UAVs. In the future, they can be integrated into platforms created on the basis of “Geran-2/3/4/5”, “Harpy” or other long-range drones. A similar communication channel can also be used for targeting cruise missiles, glider bombs and other weapons of destruction.

New estimates have proposed that Russia could launch enough satellites to have full 24/7 coverage over Ukraine by as early as 2027.

One analysis:

Regarding “Rassvet“ and Ukraine...

According to data from the N2YO service, the satellites are in orbits that allow them to pass within range of Ukraine four times a day. However, only during two or three of these passes do the satellites rise high enough above the horizon to provide stable communication with ground terminals.

During each pass, which lasts about an hour and a half for the entire formation, a “communication window” is created, during which the Russian Aerospace Forces could theoretically use satellite terminals to communicate and control kamikaze drones and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

At the end of July, the second group of 16 satellites was launched into orbit. If the current deployment rate is maintained, the satellites in the second group will reach their operational altitudes within October-November and provide two additional “communication windows.”

The officially announced schedule calls for the start of commercial operation in 2027. Previously, plans were mentioned to increase the number of satellites to 250 by 2027, to 730 by 2030, and to over 900 by 2035....

The 250 number was given by Serhiy Flash as requisite for having 24/7 coverage. If Russia reaches that by 2027 as some estimate, then Russia will have its very own fully native “Starlink” system to control drones of any kind at all distances, without requiring Belarusian “relays”, repeater tricks, mesh networks, etc. That’s not to even mention the revolution it would have on simple Russian battlefield networked communications and integrated battlefield management systems.

Given what we’ve seen with the trajectory Ukraine is on politically, diplomatically, and now militarily with the acceleration of Russia’s offensive campaign, the destruction of infrastructure and landlocking of the country via Odessa, as well as the surge in Russian ballistic missile production and total paucity of Patriot interceptors, we can say that 2027 could be a hallmark year that will see Ukraine truly begin to buckle, if not completely collapse.

It has been the main narrative for some time now that Ukraine’s major advantage over Russia has been the Starlink system. Not only has Russia increasingly learned to jam Ukraine’s own Starlink, and is progressively rolling out more of the systems able to do this, but now Russia is beginning to field its own analog.

By 2027 we may see Ukraine’s Starlinks increasingly ineffective, while Russia’s own begin to dominate, rescinding the last of Ukraine’s battlefield advantage amidst an unprecedented production overdrive of ballistic missiles which will be slamming daily into Ukrainian cities.

In conclusion: Ukraine’s outlook has never been worse, and Zelensky is left with nothing more than cheap tricks of increasingly targeting Russian civilians to “irritate” the public against Putin, as happened today when a Ukrainian drone slammed into a busy public beach in Gelendzhik.

Ukrainian figure Taras Chmut summarizes:

And a timely final post from one of Ukraine’s most prominent analysts, Bohdan Myroshnykov:

That’s a valiant attitude to have, but judging by Zelensky’s new ceasefire beg, we can assume even he comprehends that a “blow-for-blow” slug match against the Russian Titan would not work out in Ukraine’s favor.

But since there’s no other real choice, he’ll likely be forced to take it to its natural conclusion.

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

We don’t know yet for certain if it will happen, but there are definitely signs, such as this account which follows US carrier group movements indicating that carriers always begin distancing themselves from Iranian shores just before major onslaughts:

It has again recorded one of the US carriers fleeing toward eastern Omani shores to put the doctrinal ~300km+ between itself and Iranian coastal anti-ship launchers.

Behind the scenes, there are increasing reports that a deranged Trump is simply losing it over the failure of his aides and gophers to draw up any kind of credible plan of victory against Iran:

Even in latest press events, Trump had no choice but to concede that Iran is much tougher than expected, but still claimed that they would capitulate eventually if US simply keeps the bombs coming:

Now the entire establishment is scrambling to come up with solutions to the intractable Iran crisis that is destroying the last vestiges of credibility the feared US military machine once possessed.

Two authors from the Atlantic Council think-tank gave a realistic assessment of Trump’s approach in a piece for the FP:

They argue that the sunk cost fallacy of Trump’s war will lead only to the diminishment of US’s negotiating leverage the longer it drags on, which is essentially an admission that Iran is now running away with its victory and the US should simply cut its losses:

The administration has repeatedly fallen prey to the sunk cost fallacy. In the face of this strategic failure, President Donald Trump has mostly acted as if the problem were one of scale or duration. In reality, U.S. negotiating leverage has diminished as the war has progressed and will likely continue to erode as the United States exhausts its munitions and domestic political consequences mount. New Houthi attacks on Saudi oil exports add precarity to a war that has already induced global economic shocks, damaged U.S. credibility, and put America’s regional allies in the middle of a conflict they advocated against.

It is true, especially given recent admissions by Admiral Brad Cooper that the US has ran out of worthwhile targets to even hit along Iran’s coast, and due to long-range standoff weapons shortages, is unable to consistently hit anything deeper in the country anyway.

Particularly relevant from the FP piece is the passage about trying to break Iran with “pressure”, which Trump and his Israeli advisors continue to lean toward as a workable strategy:

There is a myth in Washington that pressure alone can break Iran. For nearly five decades, the United States has used every form of military, economic, and political pressure available to try to bend Iran to its will. It has not worked. Pressure has occasionally shaped Iranian decision-making but only when paired with other tools, such as inducements, coalitions, mutual respect, and patience. If Trump continues to believe Iran will simply surrender to U.S. power, he will fail.

The Atlantic Council authors propose a surprisingly intelligent and politic solution for the conflict. They rightly acknowledge that the only way to end it would be for both sides to receive enough room to claim victory to their own domestic audiences, which would lower the ego and political-driven necessity to continue plowing on toward some unattainable coup de grace:

The key to any sustainable deal is that both parties need to be able to legitimately claim victory. Both sides can best accomplish this by aiming for small, concrete results. For the United States, this means reversing active unilateral Iranian control over the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz and a viable pathway to a future nuclear deal. For Iran, it means significant financial compensation and the acknowledgement of its newfound position in the strait.

They give many specific prescriptive recommendations for how this can be achieved, but it will all likely fall on deaf ears as Trump’s foreign policy is sourced in Tel Aviv, anyway, which is why immediately following Bibi’s visit Trump began immediately agitating for an expanded campaign of new strikes.

A more astonishing admission came by way of a new WaPo piece wherein the head of US European Command urgently declared that his lack of resources would soon force him to choose between defending the “homeland” and Israel:

“Maintenance issues” have reportedly sidelined many US ships worn down by the dragging campaign against Iran:

The Navy has five destroyers that deploy from a U.S. port in Rota, Spain, with a sixth expected to arrive there later this year, Pentagon officials have said. But maintenance issues have piled up due to the Iran war’s tempo, complicating matters for Grynkewich, officials said. The Washington Post withheld specific details about the ships’ availability at the request of military officials, who cited security concerns.

As The Post reported in May, Pentagon assessments conducted earlier in the war showed that U.S. forces have shouldered the brunt of defending Israel from Iranian ballistic missiles. The assessments found that American weapons, including the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense and naval interceptors launched from the eastern Mediterranean, were used far more frequently than Israeli air defense weapons.

As the above notes, US forces have “shouldered the brunt” of defending Israel because wiser US allies chose to avoid precisely the type of caustically interminable bog that General Grynkewich is complaining about.

Virtually everyone in the world other than Trump recognizes the Iran debacle as just that: a mindless and pointlessly egomaniacal crusade.

WaPo notes the plummeting public opinion of the war:

The Iran war is increasingly unpopular among the U.S. public, and members of Congress — from both political parties — have grown frustrated with the administration as top officials struggle to articulate a plan for ending the conflict on terms deemed favorable to the United States. There is a deepening worry among many Republicans, particularly, that the war’s impact on the price of gas, food and other goods will cost the party in November’s midterm elections.

Sources continue to report that the IRGC is now in full control and that Trump’s people are merely talking to “figureheads” without the power of real authority:

Of course, anything that comes from mainstream rags should be treated with skepticism, but it is true that the US and Israel have been desperately searching for ways to reach someone of authority that can be reasoned with. The catch? By “reasoned with” the US generally means someone compliant with US demands like was the case in Venezuela; but we’ve now seen time and again: Iran is no Venezuela.

On the eve of another ill-fated escalation that deep within the sclerotic sepulchres of his addled braincase Trump must sense will lead to nothing more than further disaster, there is the desperate need to make some sense of what has become an inscrutable enigma for the US military industrial complex. Iran’s now-legendary mosaic doctrine has utterly befuddled an empire that has gotten fat on straight-forward pushovers and dwarf-nations of yes-men.

The Times piece above warns that the new supreme leader may soon be forced out of hiding to quell public demand for his whereabouts—a fact of irony in stark contrast to the situation of his American counterpart, whose public would at this point much sooner be relieved to never see him again:

At some point, the Iranian people will demand to see their new supreme leader. He failed to appear for his father’s funeral this month. They only evidence for his existence is several official statements about the war issued in his name.

As of this writing, rumors abound of Iranian dispersals of officials and IRGC in Hormozgan and other provinces neighboring the coasts in preparation for potential US attacks.

Other reports claim Iran has been pushing heavy equipment westward in seeming preparation for something bigger:

The latest rumors are that Trump wants to cut electricity to Tehran in its entirety, punishing the Iranian people he so valiantly professed to be defending from the “regime” he now can’t even locate.

But it is this very misunderstanding of the Iranian people that is fatefully leading Trump into his Waterloo moment. The Times piece provided a glimpse into how the people of Tehran already feel about the bumbling dotard even without his further instigation of their ire:

Cutting their power will surely turn them against the “regime” this time!

On the eve of more senseless escalation, the US Empire ever-asymptotically remains “just one more bombing run” away from total victory.

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

From the Telegraph piece above:

Friedrich Merz is drawing up secret plans to prevent German pro-Kremlin “traitor states” from obstructing Nato’s plans to defend against a Russian invasion.

German officials fear the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party could frustrate the movement of allied forces through two eastern states it is expected to win in September elections.

European ‘democracy’ has deteriorated to such an extent that nations now routinely wage wars of sabotage against themselves, in order to preserve the globalist system of control their leaders are beholden to.

The precise fear about the AfD’s looming rise spelled out:

If the hard-Right party wins an absolute majority in Saxony‑Anhalt or Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern, it will be able to form a state government with control over internal security, policing and other powers.

It could slow troop and equipment movements through bureaucratic obstructionism over permits and permissions, delay the deployment of state-level police resources, and refuse to give the military priority on local roads.

They predictably frame it as a “plan by Putin” to utilize his stooges in friendly European political parties in order to hamper responses to the big Russian attack the elites are using as a fig leaf for their own war-of-aggression preparations.

Just like how the EU began studying ways to break its own “democratic” charter and allow initiatives to pass without the required unanimity all to bypass the intransigent positions of states like Hungary, now individual EU states themselves are figuring out ways to “bend” democratic processes to shackle and squelch their own individual federal regions. Of course, this is elementary at this point compared to the course of outright banning the AfD as Germany has been trying to do under “extremism” laws, but it is nevertheless a dark glimpse into the increasingly totalitarian nature of the EU.

The article cites German figures as lamenting the fact that “countermeasures against rebel state governments” were being complicated by “constitutional laws governing state independence.” Again we see that pesky constitution acting as quite an inconvenience against the ambitions of the Eurocrats and their toadies.

Now they’re wracking their brains over how to “circumvent” their own federal state, but “legally”:

Somehow the word “circumvent” has the flavor of being in natural opposition to the idea of legality when it comes to such things—but I’m no constitutional scholar. That’s not to mention the admitted secrecy of the entire operation:

What’s a little old fashioned skullduggery against your own constituency?

Well, at least with “circumvent” they’re using a neutral enough euphemism; it could be worse, they could be calling it what it really is: subversion or sabotage of their own federally mandated and independent state.

Tobias Krull, the deputy chairman of the state parliament’s interior committee, said: “There are considerations about what could be done to bypass the state government in the event of an AfD single-party government.”

He said Germany’s response to a Russian military threat could not depend on a single state so it was necessary to “create mechanisms that would make it possible to overrule individual states or to take the necessary measures”.

Of course, what really terrifies them is the AfD’s general rise to power and its promise to re-establish good relations with Russia.

Just weeks out from the important state elections, the corresponding Die Welt piece gloomily tracks the rise of AfD:

The AfD stands at 41 percent

With just a few weeks to go before the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, Krull’s CDU finds itself in direct competition with the AfD, which is classified as a far-right party in that state. In the latest INSA poll for “Focus Online,” the AfD stands at 41 percent, while the CDU stands at 24 percent. Should it win an absolute majority of seats, it could form a state government on its own for the first time. This would place, among other things, the state’s Ministry of the Interior, the state police, the state Office for the Protection of the Constitution, and large parts of the state administration under its control.

As stated above, the AfD threatens to form a state government for the first time, which would give the AfD sole control over all the public institutions therein. And since many layers of civilian contracts are critical to the facilitation of German brigades through the various states in the event of some “crisis”, the authorities believe AfD will have the power to block such plans. And given that Germany is considered the main and most important hub for all NATO transit toward the mythical “eastern flank”, this means AfD will have power alone to entirely hamstring the alliance’s hostile plans.

This comes at a particularly relevant time as Europe’s involvement in provoking Russia is being increasingly highlighted. Making the rounds earlier was FT’s story about how the great ‘success’ of Ukraine’s deep strike campaign against Russia came by way of US’s involvement in helping Ukraine chart flight paths for its missiles through Russian air defense gaps.

The article had a peculiar quote which additionally ascribed Ukraine’s recent drone success to a mysterious “technological breakthrough” which allows Ukraine to increase mass production of these long-range drones:

“Ukraine has had a technological breakthrough, which allowed them to produce more long-range drones and increase overall mass production,” said Stefan Meister, the head of the Eurasia programme at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

This is quite interesting given the recent exposé from NYT about the “secret German factory” that is supplying Ukraine’s new long-range drone models:

Situated in a serene, suburban industrial complex, the factory operates under watertight security. DealBook agreed not to disclose its location, and other tenants in the complex are kept unaware of its existence. Helsing’s name appears nowhere: The company fears the factory could be a prime target for sabotage or attack, given that thousands of the drones assembled here have been deployed against Russian forces in Ukraine.

How many such “secret factories” spread throughout Europe are really responsible for Ukraine’s newfound long-range drone ‘renaissance’?

The initiatives have not slowed:

From the above:

Ukraine just secured a German promise to bankroll production of one of its most closely guarded new weapons, a jet-powered strike drone capable of hitting targets deep inside Russian territory, in a deal signed on the sidelines of the NATO Summit in Ankara, Türkiye.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha announced the agreement on X, confirming that Germany will finance manufacturing of the BARS drone system during the deal’s first phase, with every unit produced going directly to Ukraine’s own armed forces rather than Germany’s.

This is all part and parcel to the known process of the relocation of Ukraine’s entire strategic “rear” into Europe, wherein it cannot be touched by Russian strikes—at least not directly.

Why it remains unbelievable that Ukraine alone is responsible for the renaissance of mass production is because, while Ukraine itself does have plenty of drone manufacturing workshops and foreign enterprises within its borders, Russia regularly wipes them away during routine strikes.

Just yesterday another such American enterprise was reportedly erased from existence via Iskander. Note that the company specifically produced deep-strike drones such as the AQ-100 Bayonet and AQ-400 Scythe:

The Scythe in particular is said to have a 750km range.

From the above:

A drone factory in Kyiv destroyed by a Russian ballistic missile on Friday was owned by a US corporation registered in Delaware, in what appears to be the first time Moscow has targeted a US company in the conflict.

Terminal Autonomy makes precision “deep-strike” drones with guidance systems that are resistant to Russian jamming signals, according to a person familiar with the company.

Manufacturing small FPVs in vastly distributed small workshops is a reality in Ukraine, but the drones utilized for true deep strikes are much larger and require larger warehouse spaces, which limits their ability to be indefinitely concealed.

As such, we can see the connecting sinews between Europe’s gradual re-appropriation of Ukraine’s entire defense industry and the slow-march to war against Russia that European elites are desperately trying to orchestrate.

Germany in particular has taken the lead in co-opting Ukraine’s rear because it provides them with an unexpected benefit: manufacturing jobs. The earlier NYT piece admits that most of the workers at the German Helsing factory building drones for Ukraine are all lay-offs from collapsing German auto production lines:

The 100 or so factory workers, many of whom were recently laid off by flagging German carmakers, undergo extensive security vetting and sign nondisclosure agreements. Painted on one wall is a motivational slogan reading, “protecting our democracies.”

In a sizzling bit of irony, the German workers building drones to provoke Russia into war toil beneath dystopic signs that read “protecting our democracies”—you know, the same “democracy” the German government is actively scheming to pervert by illegally sabotaging the AfD from exercising its “democratically” enshrined public mandate.

But not to worry, there will be plenty lost manufacturing jobs regained once WWIII kicks off. For their sake, let’s just hope the “secret drone factories” have added Iskander insurance to their policies.

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment

Politico takes great indulgences in writing that Zelensky “convinced” the Washington establishment that Ukraine can now “win the war”. In doing so, they admit quite openly that the brilliant plan is simply to ‘irritate’ the Russian people into pressuring Putin to come to the negotiating table:

“The whole program here is to bring Putin to the negotiating table,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) said following a meeting with the Ukrainian president, senators and some House lawmakers. “Zelenskyy believed that Putin would think a little bit more about trying to negotiate a settlement if the sanctions were in place and actually creating more irritation and, as he put it, I believe, ‘anger’ with the war with the Russian people.”

This is apparently the depraved strategy cooked up by MI6, CIA, and co.: endlessly bomb Russian civilian properties until the people get fed up of the war. How well did that turn out in Iran?

We saw in Iran a marked shift in even the staunchly anti-clerical civilian population on the ground after the US began bombing schools, hospitals, etc.—or, in essence, the very people the US claimed to be “liberating” from the “oppressive regime”. The sentiment quickly turned against the US in even the most diehard Westernized Iranians.

How anyone could expect any different in Russia is a most baffling mystery.

But Zelensky seems to believe his plan is working:

As a slight aside, insiders are now even admitting that Ukraine is being forced to shift its campaign against Russian refineries from simply creating empty PR optics via smoke plume ‘spectacles’, to actually hitting significant components of the refineries themselves which could take them out of action:

It’s an admission that the campaign has failed: as we reported last time, Russian refineries are coming back online in full, and Ukraine is now scrambling for a Plan B. The problem is, many Russian refineries are starting to enact countermeasures, such as placing nets and other anti-drone obstructions around critical components which could make Ukraine’s pivot less successful than expected by optimistic script-writers.

One of the chief goals of Zelensky’s visit was to secure more Patriot missiles for what is feared to be the hardest winter for Ukraine yet:

Kind of counterintuitive, then—one would think—that Zelensky chose to prolong the Iranian conflict by hitting an Iranian ship, the very conflict which is eating up his precious and most-coveted Patriot missiles. The longer the Iran war drags on, the less Ukraine is prioritized for such weaponry—but low-hanging fruit is one temptation too many for the Kiev mastermind, it seems.

But Zelensky’s big PR tour of Washington—wherein he rubbed shoulders with establishment figures, hobnobbed with neocons in Congress, and was laundered through the late-night circuit, appearing on shows like Sean Hannity—was nothing more than another performative circus. Even Ukrainian media is reporting that Boeing will not allow Ukraine to license production of the homing heads it is responsible for in the supply chain:

"There is a main bottleneck: the homing head for these Patriot missiles, and especially for the PAC-3 model. Boeing produces these homing heads, and as far as I know, Boeing is unwilling to provide licenses to third countries," Wanner stated.

In the above Euromaidan Press piece they even admit it takes several Patriots to stop a single Iskander, which Russia produces 70 of per month:

Additionally, the US signed a seven-year agreement with Boeing in April 2026 to triple production of the PAC-3 guidance heads. Lockheed Martin, the sole current PAC-3 producer, plans to triple its own production by 2030. Global PAC-3 MSE production currently runs at about 550 units per year, while Russia produces about 70 ballistic missiles per month, each of which typically requires two to three Patriots to stop, analyst Oleh Katkov says.

As Zelensky dances and flirts his way across Washington, even neutral analysts and cartographers have announced that Russian advances across the front have been gaining momentum to levels unseen since last year:

Read more

The current geopolitical cue revolves around Ukraine’s putative pivot from strikes on Russia’s refineries to an all-out war against “Russia’s Amazon”:

After months of escalating attacks on oil depots and refineries, it has abruptly shifted targets, turning its sights to something more unexpected: warehouses and depots belonging to Wildberries, a Russian retail giant often described as the country’s equivalent of Amazon.

But the biggest bombshell is what they now openly admit to.

The above Telegraph piece veritably gloats over the fact that these strikes are having a major effect on Russia’s civilian population and its perception of the conflict.

But the strikes have another effect.

Robert Brovdi, Ukraine’s drone chief, said the strikes were aimed at destroying the “illusion of a comfortable, well-fed peacetime life enjoyed by the obedient biomass of an aggressor country”.

The damage is impossible to hide.

They show that Russia is vulnerable.

After only briefly and passingly mentioning that some “radios and military gear” are available on the Wildberries site, the authors quickly abandon that line of justification in favor of obsessively cataloguing the civilian toll the strikes are exacting:

Encompassing almost 80 million active customers and some one million sellers, Wildberries accounts for 52 per cent of Russia’s e-commerce market – a market which is booming, having grown 28 per cent last year.

The destruction of its warehouses has sent a shock wave through the small businesses selling goods through the site. Hundreds of people have posted videos online complaining that they had lost large inventories of goods and would not receive compensation from the company.

So, it’s not the “military radios” they really care about, it’s the “shock waves” sent through small businesses the article authors are salivating over in the hopes that it will result in mass unrest against Putin.

They end the piece by verbalizing these hopes outright, and proving that Zelensky’s pivot to hitting Russian retailers has nothing whatever to do with paralyzing the army’s ability to buy some kind of radios or armor—as if the Russian Army purchases its gear from Wildberries—but rather everything to do with pressuring Russian citizens, as is the standard M.O. of all failed imperial “kinetic” foreign policy:

Some, however, remain hopeful that a fresh reminder that the war has come to Russia’s doorstep could begin to chip away at public indifference.

“Before, the war was a peripheral phenomenon that didn’t directly affect the lives of ordinary Russians,” said Abbas Gallyamov, a political analyst and former speechwriter for Putin. “Now it comes in the form of fuel shortages and disruptions to online shopping.

“This negative momentum for the Russian authorities undermines the picture painted by propaganda,” he added. “[The strikes] strengthen anti-war sentiment.

“People rally behind a government that is winning, not one that is losing.”

The final line says it all: “People rally behind a government that is winning, not one that is losing.”

Of course, the putrid scamps behind such articles would never do their ethical due diligence of presenting both sides of the story, which includes second order consequences Ukraine may be experiencing as a result of this pressure campaign against Russian citizens that’s got the establishment presstitutes all so randy with excitement.

From one Ukrainian account:

One of the more interesting current discussions about Russia’s response to these Ukrainian provocations revolves around the theory that Putin has slowly been forced to change his approach to the war due to the increasing pressure from his own General Staff and security apparatus.

In truth, we can’t know for certain the ‘chicken-or-the-egg’ causal chain of the shift, but we do know this shift in tone and rhetoric is real. Just yesterday Putin told a conference that Ukraine will certainly lose its western territories:

He then went on to liken the attackers of Russian cargo ships to pirates, and told his naval command to begin treating them as one would treat pirates:

It still had the hallmarks of Putinism: the strict legalistic adherence; “framework of international maritime law”, etc. But the tone shift is obvious: “Decisive action” must be taken against these pirates, says Putin.

Even more notably, at his latest speech Putin told the audience a “secret”, that one of the Russian SMO medal winners whispered to Putin that Russia should “go harder” in the war, to which Putin responds: “I really want to.”

This is intriguingly revealing. On one hand, Putin openly gives the reasons for why the Russian Army cannot go “all out” as most people would like: because it would incur much greater losses, and Putin believes Russia’s current persistent slow-march across Ukraine is the ideal pace which maximizes victorious conditions while minimizing losses.

But the fact that he even brings it up and stages it in a kind of dialectic with the Russian people is intriguing in and of itself, because it represents Putin’s response to what is clearly becoming a growing call from society. Putin uses the soldier’s request as a chance to finally address this elephant in the room while acquitting himself of guilt by framing it as something Putin himself wishes he could do, but is not capable of doing for the given justifications.

Now Zelensky has continued agitating about Russia facing a crisis related to the above, with growing rumors—fanned by Ukraine—that a large-scale mobilization is imminent after Russian Duma elections in the fall. Zelensky himself has claimed upwards of 50,000 North Korean troops are getting readied to be “mobilized” into the Russian Armed Forces, while Putin will call up an additional 500k Russian troops.

Russian Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee Andrey Kartapolov blanketly rejected the rumors, reiterating once more that “There is no need to carry out a mobilization” because Russia gets ample recruitment from voluntary signups. He adds that the more civilian infrastructure Ukraine hits, the more these signups are boosted by indignant citizens:

Zelensky is now apparently trying his hardest to merge the Ukraine and Iran wars in order to benefit from some military cross-pollination. By hitting an Iranian ship, which resulted in the death of an Iranian sailor, Zelensky appears to hope he can accomplish two things:

1. Curry favor with Trump. Essentially a “pick-me” move by Zelensky meant to show Trump his diehard loyalty to the Empire. “See, I hit your enemies for you, so will you help me now?”

2. As stated, cross-pollinate the two wars so that they appear to ideologically and strategically overlap as much as possible so that weapons aid to Ukraine can be more easily packaged as a kind of “broader” investment into combating America’s enemies, and thus made more palatable to the American lumpen.

Trump’s simultaneous hosting of both characters from each respective war seems to imply such a direction is being considered or developed by imperial scriptwriters.

Iran was not impressed by Ukraine’s brazen act, however, and now a diplomatic tiff between the two nations has ensued:

All the while, Russia has ramped up its new campaign of Ukrainian infrastructural destruction in line with the hardening of Putin’s rhetoric.

A Ukrainian regional council deputy from Kharkov revealed that every single gas station from Kharkov to Poltava has already been taken out by Russian drones:

All gas stations from Kharkov to Poltava have been destroyed, stated Kharkov Regional Council Deputy Skoryk.

He advised those planning a trip in this direction to stock up on fuel or cancel their trip.

Map-makers illustrated the extent of this damage:

Such a catastrophic predicament wouldn’t be complete without a conniption from resident doomsayer “Jihad” Julian Roepcke, who provided his own even sadder maps:

But roughly 30 days into Zelensky’s so-called 40-day campaign, Western publications are asking what effect, if any, has it had.

The Guardian quoted a bevy of experts—from Mick Ryan to Phillips O’Brien—and all seemed to agree that the campaign’s chief goal is to stir political and social unrest in Russia precisely timed with the State Duma elections, which begin not long after:

Beyond the metaphysical, Lutsevych sees the length of the campaign as having a political significance as well. “Elections for the Duma [Russian parliament] are in September. Part of the idea is to make Putin understand that it hurts his hold on power by doing everything to bring the war to Moscow and St Petersburg in particular.”

O’Brien admits it’s an outright psychological campaign simply meant to make some kind of point or attempt at a “gotcha”:

Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, adds: “It is a psychological campaign. I don’t think there is an expectation that the 40-day campaign will force Russia to surrender. It is a way of saying: ‘We can take the war to you’.

The article claims that the campaign may have succeeded in bringing Zelensky back into favor with Trump because, as others have noted, Trump likes “winners”. Now at a critical turning point when talks of Patriot production are brewing, Zelensky needs all the pull with Trump that he can get, particularly as Ukrainian experts again warn that Ukraine is approaching what will become another long, hard winter.

While crisis actor Zelensky dreams of stirring his performative unrest, Putin on the other hand appeared upbeat, again telling SMO participants that all objectives of the Special Military Operation will be completed in their entirety:

Now as of this writing, Ukrainian channels—and even Zelensky himself—warn that Russia is preparing one of the largest aerial strike packages of the war, with Kiev as the likely target.

Soon we will see if Putin’s sharpened rhetoric continues to live up to its word.

Your support is invaluable. If you enjoyed the read, I would greatly appreciate if you subscribed to a monthly/yearly pledge to support my work, so that I may continue providing you with detailed, incisive reports like this one.

Alternatively, you can tip here: buymeacoffee.com/Simplicius

Subscribe now

Share

Leave a comment