Diary of a Professional Soybean Speculator

Sep 2, 2026 Morning Prep - WARNING USDA Following Funds: Satellite Imaging to Show Higher Yields

SoybeanTrader88 — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:49:54 GMT

O/N, macro: Beans and products down. Spreads, crush , and vol down. PO/RS down. USD up. Crude mixed. Macro risk off.

DCE/OI: XS and products up. OI showed broad increases in longs across the curve. +2k X 1310c. +2k X 1360c. +12k X 1380c !!! +3k X 1400c. +8 H $20c ! +3k V 1300p. -3k X 1150p. +3k X +1200p. +2k each of X 1230p and X 1250p. +3k X 1300p. +4k F 1200p. +2k F 1230p.

Sep 1, 2026 End of Day Recap - Steeper and Steeper

SoybeanTrader88 — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 23:09:20 GMT

Recap: Beans and products up. Spreads and vol up. Crush mixed. Basis mostly unch with a bunch of plants mixed. PO/RS up. USD and crude up. Macro risk off.

Sep 1, 2026 Morning Prep - “And All At Once, Summer Collapsed Into Fall”

SoybeanTrader88 — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 11:45:35 GMT

O/N, macro: Beans and products up. Spreads and crush up. Vol down. PO/RS up. USD and crude up. Macro risk off.

DCE/OI: XS and products up. OI for SX showed a small decrease in longs, but increased longs for SF27. -2k X 1300c. -2k X 1120p. +2k X 1260p. +2k H 1230p.

Weather: Forecasted 1” rains in MW 4th-5th and 9th-13th, with warmer than normal temps. MT light rains 7th and 12th.

Aug 31, 2026 End of Day Recap - End a +$1 Month With a Doji

SoybeanTrader88 — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 22:59:22 GMT

Recap: SX26 unch but 2027 months up. Meal down and BO near unch. Spreads, vol, and crush down. Basis mostly unch. PO up. RS down. USD down. Crude up. Macro risk off.

Aug 31, 2026 Morning Prep

SoybeanTrader88 — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 13:07:39 GMT

O/N, macro: Beans and products down. Spreads, vol, and crush down. PO up. RS down. USD down. Crude up. Macro risk off.

AUGUST REVIEW AND SEPTEMBER OUTLOOK

SoybeanTrader88 — Sun, 30 Aug 2026 23:54:09 GMT

FUNDAMENTALS (bullish)

Review:

China flashed 2.984mt NC. Unknown flashed 1.36415mmt NC. (↑)
WASDE had lower than expected yield (52.7bpa) but higher than expected harvested acres (85.8ma), and higher than expected NC E/S (320mbu). (↓)
NOPA 216.6mbu vs 214.3mbu LM vs 195.7mbu LY. BO 1.36bp vs 1.501bp LM vs 1.384bp LY. (↑)
Pro Farmer Tour 53.3bpa vs DTN Digital Yield Tour vs USDA 52.7bpa. Inconsistencies between direction of NDVI and partial state hand count.

US exports ending August 20 OC -17% y/y close to -20% vs USDA, and NC +98% y/y but +9% vs USDA. (↑)

Inspections -17.9% y/y for week ending August 20. (↓)
GE 60% vs 61% expected vs 61% LW vs 69% LY vs 62% 5Y for week ending August 23. Below averages. (↑)
Setting pods 91% vs 85% LW vs 88% LY vs 88% 5Y for week ending August 23. Ahead of averages. (↓)
Crush came out at 218mbu vs 213mbu LM vs 197.1mbu LY. (↑)
Less chances of US sanctions on Chinese banks. (↑)
Putin escalation pulling up wheat and Ag. (↑)
The US may possibly increase 500 million gallons in 2027 biofuel quotas. (↑)

Outlook:

Aug 28, 2026 Afternoon Recap - Beans in the Teens

SoybeanTrader88 — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 22:19:50 GMT

Recap: Beans and products up. Spreads, vol and crush up. Basis mostly unch but there are select plants in the West that are showing tightness by bidding much higher than others. PO/RS up. USD up. Crude down. Macro risk down.

Aug 28, 2026 Morning Prep - RVO Returns From the Dead

SoybeanTrader88 — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 12:10:53 GMT

O/N, macro: Beans and products up. Spreads slightly up. Vol unch. Crush up. PO/RS up. USD unch. Crude down. Macro risk flat.

DCE/OI: XS and products up. OI showed almost flat for SX (and CZ) but longer in front ‘27 mths. +2k V 1300c. +3k X 1320c. +2k F 1220p.

Weather: Forecasted limited rains in NW IA/S MN for the next seven days, with warmer than normal temps. The first week of Sept starting off with heat and scattered 1” rains (2nd-4th, 11th in MW).

Aug 27, 2026 Afternoon Recap - Sucks

SoybeanTrader88 — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 20:45:04 GMT

Recap: Beans and products up. Meal up. Spreads, crush, and vol up. Basis mostly unch but some mixed outliers. PO/RS up. USD flat. Crude up. Macro risk on.

Aug 27, 2026 Morning Prep - Follow Wheat

SoybeanTrader88 — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 12:01:59 GMT

O/N, macro: Beans and BO down. Meal up. Spreads, crush, and vol down. PO/RS down. USD up. Crude mixed. Macro risk on (primarily on NVIDIA and chip stocks).

Aug 26, 2026 End of Day Recap - HODL

SoybeanTrader88 — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 23:34:55 GMT

Recap: Beans and meal up. BO slightly down. Spreads and vol up. Crush and oilshare down. Basis mostly unch. PO/RS/crude up. USD up. Macro risk on.

Aug 26, 2026 Morning Prep - Like ‘Em Tight, But It’s a Pig With Lipstick

SoybeanTrader88 — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 11:53:14 GMT

O/N, macro: Beans and meal up. BO down. Spreads up. Vol down. Crush down. PO/RS/crude down. USD and macro risk flat.

Aug 25, 2026 End of Day Recap - Bull Flag

SoybeanTrader88 — Tue, 25 Aug 2026 22:37:24 GMT

Recap: Beans and products up. Spreads (SX26 vs ‘27s) and crush lower. Vol unch. Basis mostly tighter along IL river plants. PO down. RS up. USD mixed. Crude down. Macro risk on.

Aug 25, 2026 Morning Prep - BO Knows

SoybeanTrader88 — Tue, 25 Aug 2026 11:37:27 GMT

O/N, macro: Beans and products down. Spreads (sX26 vs ‘27s), crush, and vol lower. PO down. RS up. USD up. Crude down. Macro risk on.

DCE/OI: XS and products down. OI showed bean and BO longs exiting. +2k each of V 1280c, V 1330c, and V 1350c. +2k X 1150p.

Weather: AM rains through NE. Forecasted 1” rains in N IA/S MN for the next five days, otherwise limited scattered rains in MW until the end of the month. Spurts of cool or normal temperatures until the end of the month. The first week of Sept starting off with heat and scattered 1” rains (2nd-4th in IA).

Aug 24, 2026 End of Day Recap

SoybeanTrader88 — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 23:34:34 GMT

Recap: Beans and BO lower. Meal higher. Spreads, vol, and crush lower. Basis mostly unch. PO/RS lower. USD higher. Crude lower. Macro risk off.

Aug 24, 2026 Morning Prep - Corn or Crude?

SoybeanTrader88 — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 11:37:28 GMT

O/N, macro: Beans and BO lower. Meal higher. Spreads up. Vol slightly higher. Crush lower. PO/RS lower. USD higher. Crude lower. Macro risk off.

DCE/OI: XS and products lower. OI showed more longs. -2k each of X 1240c, X 1250c and X 1300c. +28k X 1340c! +2k F 1250c. +2k V 1240p. +4k X 1180p. +2k X 1240p.

August 22, 2026 Weekly Review and Outlook - I’m Torn

SoybeanTrader88 — Sun, 23 Aug 2026 04:03:26 GMT

Fundamentals (neutral):

China flashed 848kmt NC. Unknown flashed 870kmt NC. (bullish?). China has bought close to 9mmt so far.
Pro Farmer Tour 53.3bpa vs DTN Digital Yield Tour vs USDA 52.7bpa. Inconsistencies between direction of NDVI and partial state hand count.

GE 61% vs 62% expected vs 62% LW vs 68% LY vs 62% 5Y.
Inspections: -18.2% y/y, week ending August 13.
NOPA 216.6mbu vs expected 221.5mbu vs 214.3mbu LM vs 195.7mbu LY. But BO 1.36bp vs expected 1.454bp vs 1.501bp LM vs 1.384bp LY (bullish).
US weekly exports OC -18% y/y close to -20% vs USDA, and NC +102% y/y but +9% vs USDA, week ending August 13. (bullish)
Sinograin auctioned 308kmt of 360kmt.

Aug 21, 2026 Afternoon Recap - It’s a Joke

SoybeanTrader88 — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 23:04:26 GMT

Recap: Beans and meal up. BO down. Spreads and vol up. Crush down. Basis 2-9c tighter along IL river plants. PO up. RS down. USD and crude mixed. Macro risk on.

Technicals: Support 1197’4 20SMA, $12 round number, 1210’2 13EMA. Resistance Jul 24 high 1256’4. MACD and stochastics up. LH/LL. 13EMA/20SMA crossed.

Aug 21, 2026 Morning Prep

SoybeanTrader88 — Fri, 21 Aug 2026 11:52:32 GMT

O/N, macro: Beans and products down. Spreads up. Vol down. Crush mixed. PO up. RS down. USD down. Crude up. Macro risk on.

DCE/OI: XS down. Products up. OI showed longs exiting. +2k V 1260c. -3k X 1250c. +2k each of V 1200p and V 1240p.

Weather: <0.5” to 1” rains yesterday in MN. Forecasted 1” rains in W IA for the next five days otherwise limited scattered rains in MW until the end of the month. Spurts of cool or normal temperatures until the end of the month.

Aug 20, 2026 Afternoon Recap

SoybeanTrader88 — Thu, 20 Aug 2026 20:47:06 GMT

Recap: Beans and mean down. BO up. Spreads down. Vol slightly higher. Crush up. Basis mostly unch but some mixed closes. PO/RS up. USD mixed. Crude up. Macro risk off.