After the MoU was signed on June 17, the U.S. pushed shipping companies as well as Gulf monarchies to take the US Navy-cleared southern route in Hormuz along the Oman coast which Iran saw not just as a violation of the MoU but also as a long term attempt to do away with Tehran's leverage over the Strait. That's when Iran started firing at tankers taking the southern channel. Many analysts in the West (who still surprisingly don't get Iran!) argued then that Tehran was overplaying its hand--they were underplaying their brains. To understand Iran's position on Hormuz, all you need to do is to go read the very first statement Mojtaba Khamenei issued after he was appointed the Supreme Leader -- not the dozens of social media posts trump has posted, which he himself doesn't believe in. Iran WILL NOT give up its leverage over the strait.

trump, faced with no good options, started bombing Iran again. There were 13 nights of bombing, and Iran retaliated each night. It also kept its tight grip over Hormuz, despite CENTCOM's Twitter fact-checkers' announcement that the strait was free and open. The US could cause damages to Iran's military infrastructure; but Tehran was ready to absorb the pain. During the two weeks, trump threatened to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants for every ship being attacked in the strait. he threatened to use Iranian frozen funds to compensate the ships that come under attack. But nothing moved Iran to soften its position, which has been shaped by the hard realities of the war. After 13 nights in a row, the US stopped its strikes with trump claiming that Iran "begged" for a ceasefire. he also said talks were making "progress". The Iranians responded by launching a surprise attack on the U.S. bases in Jordan -- it's their way of rebutting trump's claims. And during the second phase of the bombing, the Saudis bombed Sanaa, and Ansar Allah (Houthis) enforced a naval blockade on the kingdom--war is expanding horizontally, mounting trump's woes.

If you ask me, the latest barrage of threats was orchestrated--it was an attempt to seemingly debluff the bluff and put Iran under pressure. First US media reported that trump was considering a new plan to carry out widespread strikes on Iran. WSJ reported that trump has given his approval for the new strikes. Axios, of course, would come with the same story. Others said Israel would join the strike. US embassies in West Asia asked American citizens to be prepared to leave the region. Reports also said the strikes would come by the weekend. Iran did not move an inch. Instead it made its counter-threats clear--if the US escalates by attacking Iranian civilian infrastructure, it would hit back in kind at the countries in the region hosting American bases. By Sunday morning, trump backed down, this time using a call made by the Saudi Crown Prince as an excuse.

Iran has repeatedly called trump's bluff and deterred him from rapid escalation. This is what we students of IR call escalation dominance. If trump had an easy escalatory pathway out of the strategic dead end he has put himself in, he would have taken it long time ago, no matter what the Pakistanis, the Qataris or the Saudis are saying. The fact is that he doesn't have that path without plunging the US deeper into this mess. A reluctant trump is leaning on the Field Marshal, the Emir or the Crown Prince to find excuses for his humiliation.

You can "mow the lawn" in Gaza; in Syria, in Lebanon and enjoy the dominance; but you can't maw the lawn in #Iran without facing consequences. It's power meeting power, even if the proportion could be different.

Iran has never said Hormuz would return to status quo ante. Trump said it. In the MoU, Iran has agreed to ensure safe passage without any charge for 60 days; and then to decide the future administration of the strait in consultation with Oman and other littoral states.

U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio was in the region last week. He had two goals -- one, to assure the Gulf kingdoms, who became increasingly disillusioned with the U.S. during the 40-day war, of security partnerships; two, unite them against Iran at a time when most of them were talking to the Iranians. The GCC issued a strong statement after the Rubio meet, saying Iran’s support for its non-state allies and its missile programme should be addressed for lasting peace in the region. Note: neither the Iranian support for militias nor its weapons programme has been mentioned in the MoU that was signed on June 17.

When Rubio was still in the region, Oman, a country which Trump threatened to bomb a while ago, opened a new route for crossing the Strait of Hormuz along its coast. Iran insists ships pass through a route the IRGC has designated for passage along its coast. The Omani route was not acceptable for Iran. If the Omani route becomes operational and ships start transiting this lane, Iran fears it would lose the leverage it has established over the waterway. Iran believes the control over the strait is a key deterrent against future American or Israeli attacks. That’s why Iran attacked a vessel that was passing through the Omani route. The message Iran wants to send to the shipping companies was that no route but the IRGC-designated route is safe for passage.

The U.S. struck Iran, saying it violated the ceasefire by attacking a vessel. Iran retaliated by attacking an American base in Bahrain, saying the U.S. violated the ceasefire. The U.S. attacked Iran again on Sunday, and Iran hit back at U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. On Monday morning, U.S. officials said both sides agreed to stop strikes and hold talks. Trump says Iran requested the meeting and it will take place in Doha, Qatar. Iran says no technical talks have been scheduled for this week.

Whether talks take place or not, Iran has made one thing clear: it has no plan to give up its control over the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. attacked Iran, but the U.S. attacks did nothing to change Iran’s Hormuz position. America has no viable military options for the Hormuz crisis. After the MoU was signed, the U.S. lifted even its maritime blockade. It can strike Iran, but such strikes are unlikely to change Iran’s resolve to enforce its control over Hormuz.