Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 25 August 2026 to 1 September 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

On 27 August, Taiwan’s opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan passed a special budget package that offers less support for domestically produced drones and unmanned systems than the budget proposed by the Lai Ching-te administration. The result highlights a central problem in Taiwan’s defence politics: apparent bipartisan support for stronger asymmetric capabilities does not necessarily translate into the predictable funding and procurement mechanisms needed to field them quickly.

Although the opposition package is larger in headline terms, NT$240 billion (A$10.6 billion) compared to Lai’s proposed NT$210 billion (A$9.3 billion), its design is significantly less favourable to rapid military procurement: funding must be approved through the regular annual budget process, is spread across a broader unmanned-systems industrial agenda, and does not guarantee that the military will receive the money it says it needs when it needs it.

The government plan had been designed to support the rapid acquisition of roughly 210,000 military drones through 2031, including coastal reconnaissance drones, coastal attack drones and small one-way-attack unmanned surface vessels. The opposition legislation retains many of those priorities, but requires spending to pass through the regular annual budget process rather than a dedicated multi-year appropriation.

The programme is still strategically important for Taiwan. Large numbers of relatively cheap, dispersed unmanned systems could make a Chinese invasion substantially more difficult by improving coastal surveillance, attacking ships and landing forces, and allowing Taiwan to sustain combat power even after larger platforms and fixed infrastructure are struck.

Drones can also strengthen Taiwan’s ability to monitor and respond to the persistent military, coastguard and maritime pressure Beijing increasingly uses. Just as importantly, the legislation supports domestic manufacturing, testing infrastructure, cybersecurity standards and trusted supply chains, helping Taiwan build an indigenous unmanned-systems industry that could scale production during a crisis.

But the opposition’s funding model may make those capabilities harder to deliver quickly. The government wanted a special budget precisely to provide predictable multi-year procurement and give manufacturers confidence to expand factories, hire workers and invest in production capacity. Under the KMT–TPP model, funding must instead survive annual legislative negotiations. That exposes drone procurement to the same partisan bargaining, delays and potential cuts that have already affected Taiwan’s broader defence budget.

There is also a mismatch between the opposition’s headline NT$40 billion (A$1.8 billion) annual allocation and the military’s actual procurement requirements. Taiwan’s defence ministry has argued that its planned spending on existing unmanned programmes, combined with the three priority systems contained in the government proposal, would already exceed that amount in some years. The opposition legislation also spreads funding across a much broader industrial-development agenda, potentially diluting resources intended for urgent combat requirements.

The dispute reveals that the KMT is not simply opposed to strengthening Taiwan’s military: it supports drones, asymmetric warfare and domestic defence production. But it continues to prioritise legislative control, annual scrutiny and concerns about executive spending. The DPP, by contrast, increasingly argues that the deteriorating security environment requires speed, predictable funding and greater freedom for the military to execute long-term procurement.

Taiwan has a growing bipartisan consensus that it needs more drones. The harder question is whether its political system can translate that consensus into combat capability quickly enough.

30 August–4 September: Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting, Palau

September: Legislative consideration of Taiwan’s 2027 budget

24 September: Xi Jinping’s scheduled US visit and meeting with Donald Trump

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

PLA shift to systems warfare means Taiwan’s defences need to change: experts
South China Morning Post
The People’s Liberation Army is increasingly embracing broader “systems-oriented warfare” rather than relying on individual weapons platforms – a shift Taiwanese analysts say could pose new challenges to the island’s defences. Instead of focusing on individual weapons, the PLA has progressively emphasised integrating intelligence, AI, communications, weapons, logistics and infrastructure into an overall combat system, they warn. “The PLA is no longer concerned only with whose weapons are stronger, but with who can connect different weapons to generate greater overall combat power,” said Chen Chia-sheng, a researcher at a government-funded think tank in Taipei.

Can Taiwan’s new F-16s level the playing field against the PLA’s J-20 stealth fighters?
South China Morning Post
Taiwan’s first two F-16 Block 70 fighter jets from the United States are expected to arrive within days, with some analysts saying the improved models could give Taipei better odds against the People’s Liberation Army’s fifth-generation J-20 fighters. The jets will be the first deliveries under a long-delayed NT$247.3 billion (US$7.76 billion) deal for 66 aircraft. The two fighters, numbered 6727 and 6728, left a production facility in South Carolina on August 17. They stopped in Hawaii on Friday and will later fly to Guam, their final stop before heading to Chihhang Air Base in Taiwan’s eastern county of Taitung, according to Taiwanese military sources.

Testing Taiwan’s coastal defence capabilities

Chinese coastguard vessels enter Kinmen restricted waters and issue press release; Taiwan Coast Guard calls it cognitive warfare [國海警船闖金門限制水域並發新聞　海巡：認知作戰]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
Four Chinese Coast Guard vessels entered Kinmen’s restricted waters today. China Coast Guard authorities subsequently issued a statement claiming they were conducting routine law-enforcement operations in waters around Kinmen. Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration rejected the Chinese account, describing it as cognitive warfare, and said all four vessels had been expelled from the restricted waters. The Kinmen-Matsu-Penghu Branch of Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration said in a press release that, as Typhoon Saudel moved away and sea conditions around Kinmen gradually stabilised, maritime traffic and commercial activity had increased over the weekend. Chinese Coast Guard vessels nevertheless took advantage of the heavier maritime traffic to once again intrude into waters around Kinmen.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

Corporate espionage or undermining business practices

Taiwan prosecutors probe Unimicron over relabeling of China-made PCBs
Focus Taiwan
Leading printed circuit board (PCB) maker Unimicron Technology Corp. is under investigation for allegedly relabeling some of its products made in China as originating from Taiwan, according to Taoyuan prosecutors. Of those questioned, a PCB department general manager surnamed Wang was released on NT$15 million (US$474,000) bail on 29 August, while four other executives posted bail ranging from NT$300,000 to NT$12 million, prosecutors said on that day. The other nine questioned were released without bail, prosecutors added.

Taiwan charges nine people for smuggling ‘high-end’ AI servers to China
The Guardian
Taiwanese prosecutors charged nine people on Monday, including one from Nvidia and two from Super Micro, for illegally exporting “high-end AI servers” to mainland China, adding another wave of turbulence in the AI ​​rivalry between China and the United States. Prosecutors said the servers involved were graphics processing units known as “B300”, which have been banned from sale to China. Seventy-four servers arrived in China successfully, according to the prosecutors. Of those, 50 were sent through Indonesia, 16 delivered directly to China and eight sent to Japan first, then Hong Kong, before they landed in mainland China.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Taiwan Affairs Office: Hope young people on both sides of the Strait will pool the strength of youth to advance integrated development [国台办：希望两岸年轻人为推动融合发展汇聚青春力量]
Xinhua
The Shanghai leg of the “Together in Heart and Action — Cross-Strait Youth Exchange Season” opened on 25 August. At a regular press conference on 26 August, State Council Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Zhang Han introduced the event in response to a question and said that, through institutionalised platforms for two-way exchanges between the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang, more delegations would be invited to the mainland for exchanges and visits, with a wide range of activities planned. “We sincerely invite young friends from Taiwan to come to the mainland, travel around and take a look. We hope young people on both sides of the Strait will move forward together with one heart, continually pooling the strength of youth to promote the peaceful development and integrated development of cross-Strait relations,” Zhang said.

Falsely portraying Taiwan as the aggressor or obstacle to peace

Ministry of National Defense: Lai Ching-te authorities’ militarism cannot escape the fate of defeat [国防部：赖清德当局穷兵黩武难逃败亡结局]
Xinhua
Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang said at a regular Ministry of National Defense press conference on 27 August that the Lai Ching-te authorities were “recklessly squandering the people’s hard-earned money” and pursuing militarism, and would ultimately hollow out Taiwan’s resources and be unable to escape the fate of defeat … He said the Lai Ching-te authorities were acting against this trend for the selfish interests of one political party, doing their utmost to curry favour with and ingratiate themselves with external forces, recklessly squandering the people’s hard-earned money and pursuing militarism. He said this was seriously damaging the livelihoods and wellbeing of people on the island and would ultimately hollow out Taiwan’s resources, leaving the authorities unable to escape the fate of defeat.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

How cold-blooded the political manipulation by ‘Taiwan independence’ forces amid the mudslide disaster is!
Global Times
Recently, a severe mudslide struck the Gyirong border port area of Gyirong county, Xigaze, between China and Nepal, causing heavy casualties, missing persons, and significant property losses. This sudden disaster has drawn deep concern from the international community. At a critical moment when all efforts are focused on emergency rescue and disaster relief, however, certain opportunistic actors have seized the tragedy as a pretext for political manipulation, brazenly injecting so-called “Taiwan independence” narratives into expressions of sympathy, treating a natural disaster as a tool for political exploitation and shamelessly engaging in what can only be described as “profiting from human suffering.”

• Lai offers condolences over deadly Nepal-Tibet floods. Focus Taiwan

No incidents to report this week.

Outreach to Taiwan’s last 12 diplomatic allies

Taiwan foreign minister to attend Pacific islands leaders summit events
Reuters
Taiwan Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung will attend events related to a major summit of leaders from Pacific islands ​nations in Palau starting next week, his office said on 26 August, ‌though China said he had no right to take part. China’s test-firing in July of a missile into the Pacific alarmed regional powers but failed to spur a unified response from Pacific Island governments, ​underscoring divisions over how to confront growing strategic competition in the ​region … Beijing’s foreign ministry said Taipei had “no qualifications” to take part in the ​forum, which is being ​held from 30 August ⁠until 4 September. “The Taiwan authorities sending Lin Chia-lung and other Taiwan independence separatists scurrying about all over to curry favour ​is a futile attempt to grab attention,” it said in ​a statement ⁠sent to Reuters.

• Pacific Islands Forum must not become a loophole for Taiwan separatism. CGTN

• US supports Taiwan’s presence at Pacific forum. Taipei Times

• Taiwan showcases Pacific cooperation projects in Palau. Focus Taiwan

Challenging other countries’ One-China policies

China tells Japanese lawmakers Taiwan is at heart of tensions
Bloomberg
A senior Chinese diplomat told a group of Japanese lawmakers that history and Taiwan are at the center of tensions between the nations, saying Tokyo needed to take “concrete actions” for them to improve. Lu Kang, a deputy head of the ruling Communist Party’s International Department, told the visiting members of the Japanese Diet that “relations are in serious difficulty, and the root cause is clear,” according to a statement on 27 August.

• No ties reset until Japan revises Taiwan position, Chinese official tells delegation. The Japan Times

With many Taiwanese embassies closed, China shifts target to representative offices
The Strategist
After enjoying great success in eliminating Taiwan’s formal diplomatic ties, it has turned its attention to the island’s quasi-embassies, called representative offices. One reason is that persuading Taiwan’s last 12 diplomatic partners to switch recognition to Beijing is increasingly difficult. Where China succeeds in closing representative offices, it significantly constrains Taiwan’s ability to communicate directly with governments that do not formally recognise it. This is particularly significant in regions such as the South Pacific where China wields considerable influence.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

On Taiwan question, Kiribati sets an example for Palau
Global Times
Two island countries in the South Pacific have recently shown sharply contrasting approaches toward Taiwan region: on one side, Kiribati has begun promoting constitutional amendments to enshrine its one-China position, seeking to prevent repeated fluctuations in its diplomatic stance; on the other side, Palau has insisted on allowing a "representative" from the Taiwan authorities to attend this year's Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting (PIFLM), continuing to maintain so-called "diplomatic ties." The one-China principle is a basic norm in international relations, a broad consensus of the international community, and, more importantly, the correct choice for countries seeking long-term development and national interests, whereas relying on "Taiwan independence" forces and engaging in diplomatic opportunism will ultimately prove self-defeating.

China pulls artists from Gwangju Biennale over ‘Taiwan Pavilion’ name
Taiwan News
China began pulling its artists from the Gwangju Biennale in South Korea on Friday after organizers approved the name “Taiwan Pavilion.” Chinese exhibition staff and others preparing the pavilion exhibition at the Ha Jung-woong Art Museum in Gwangju withdrew at the request of the Chinese Embassy, per MBC. The move followed a visit to Gwangju on Thursday by Chinese Ambassador to South Korea Dai Bing and Chinese Consul General in Gwangju Gu Jingqing, who expressed regret over the approval of the “Taiwan Pavilion” name. The meeting was intended as a courtesy visit following the launch of Jeonnam-Gwangju Special Metropolitan City and Min’s inauguration as mayor. However, Yonhap News reported that the naming dispute was raised during the meeting.

Detention of Taiwanese nationals in China

Taiwan security chief warns China exit rules enable transnational repression
Taiwan News
National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu warned that China’s new entry and exit rules would strengthen its transnational repression efforts. Wu said in a post on X that mandatory access to personal digital data, combined with other ambiguous provisions and recent legislation, would provide China with “new legal tools” to enforce transnational repression. “Those who plan to visit China should think twice,” he said.

• MAC advises caution for ‘high-risk nationals’ traveling to China. Focus Taiwan

Taiwanese youth questioned for six hours after travelling to Shanghai; MAC urges high-risk nationals to carefully assess travel to China [台灣青年赴上海遭審問6小時　陸委會籲高風險國人赴陸慎評估]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
A social media user posted on 29 August that his son had travelled to Shanghai, China, where he was subjected to six hours of intense questioning while clearing immigration because he had previously worked for Amnesty International. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said today that it encourages Taiwanese nationals to speak openly and share such experiences, and urged “nationals who fall into high-risk categories” to carefully assess whether travelling to China is necessary … According to the post, the individual was required to unlock his phone so that officers could inspect his conversations and retained work-related files. He was subjected to a series of questions, including: What work had he been responsible for at the organisation? Had he been involved in writing reports or human rights advocacy concerning China, Hong Kong, Xinjiang or Tibet? What were the organisation’s sources of funding? Which Taiwanese or international politicians and human rights workers had he been in contact with? And what was the real purpose of his visit to China?

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 18 August 2026 to 25 August 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

On 18 August, authorities in the Chinese city of Xiamen announced 12 new measures to deepen cross-Strait exchanges and integration, several of them focused directly on Kinmen, an island close to China’s coast that is controlled by Taiwan. Beijing is seeking to turn its policy of “integrated development” into concrete economic and physical links that could draw Kinmen more tightly into Fujian’s orbit, even without Taipei’s consent.

The measures cover trade, tourism, cultural exchanges and support for Taiwanese businesses, but the most consequential relate to infrastructure. Xiamen said it would accelerate construction of the Xiamen section of the Xiamen–Kinmen Bridge, study a future Kinmen section, examine an electricity connection between Xiamen and Kinmen, advance LNG infrastructure that could support future gas links, and explore how Kinmen might make use of Xiamen’s new international airport.

Kinmen is administered by Taiwan but lies only a few kilometres off the coast of Fujian. It has remained under Republic of China (ROC) control since 1949 and was one of the principal front lines of the early Cold War in Asia. On 23 August 1958, the PLA began a sustained bombardment of the islands, triggering the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis. The anniversary, commonly known in Taiwan as “823”, remains an important symbol of the ROC’s defence of Kinmen against the PRC.

On 23 August, President Lai Ching-te travelled to Kinmen and presented “823” as a lesson in the need to defend Taiwan against external aggression, arguing that peace must be secured through strength and preparedness. KMT chair Cheng Li-wun also marked the anniversary in Kinmen, but drew a different lesson. She emphasised the need to prevent another conflict, criticised what she described as Lai’s “two-state theory”, and called for a return to the 1992 Consensus to stabilise cross-Strait relations. The competing commemorations reflect the broader partisan divide in Taiwanese domestic politics: the DPP increasingly invokes Kinmen’s history to underline the risks of PRC coercion, while the KMT stresses the islands’ history and geography as arguments for dialogue and engagement.

China already supplies water to the Kinmen, while the “Mini Three Links” facilitate substantial passenger and commercial traffic with Fujian. Beijing is now seeking to move beyond exchange towards deeper structural dependence by linking Kinmen to Fujian through water, electricity, gas, transport and other services.

For Beijing, the objective is political as well as economic. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council has previously described the proposed bridge as part of an effort to blur the boundary between Kinmen and Xiamen and gradually pull the islands into Fujian’s economic and administrative orbit. In April 2026, after Beijing announced an earlier package promoting “water, electricity, gas and bridge links”, Taipei warned that such projects touch on national security, border controls and governmental authority and therefore cannot be decided unilaterally by China.

Beijing’s next step is likely to focus less on forcing an immediate connection than on creating facts on its own side of the strait. It can complete bridge approaches, build electricity, gas, port and airport infrastructure capable of servicing Kinmen, and expand commercial incentives around them. This would allow Beijing to portray Taipei as the party preventing Kinmen residents from accessing tangible economic benefits.

Over time, Beijing could also seek to strengthen support among Kinmen politicians, businesses and residents for deeper connectivity, increasing pressure on Taipei from within Taiwan’s own political system. The longer-term objective is to make integration appear practical, beneficial and increasingly difficult to reverse, even in the absence of any political agreement with Taipei.

30 August–4 September: Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting, Palau

Taiwan is expected to attend as a development partner after being excluded from the 2025 meeting in Solomon Islands.

September: Legislative consideration of Taiwan’s 2027 budget

24 September: Xi Jinping’s scheduled US visit and meeting with Donald Trump

Testing Taiwan’s coastal defence capabilities

Mainland Chinese research ship spotted near Taiwan’s largest naval base
South China Morning Post
A mainland Chinese research ship has sailed close to a key Taiwanese naval base, marking its third appearance near the island since May. The Tong Ji is a 2,000-tonne scientific research vessel operated by Tongji University in Shanghai. It was spotted 28 nautical miles (52km) southwest of Liuqiu, an island also known as Lamay, on Friday morning, according to the Taiwanese authorities. Liuqiu sits off the southwest coast of Taiwan’s main island, close to the city of Kaohsiung – home to Taiwan’s naval academy and largest naval base.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

Imposing restrictions on exports to Taiwan

China slows exports of key optical, aerospace metals to Taiwan
Nikkei Asia
China is restricting or delaying exports of key aerospace and optical materials to Taiwan, creating painful supply chain bottlenecks for industries in the key Asian tech economy, Nikkei Asia has learned. Some optical technology manufacturers have experienced significant delays and hurdles in obtaining materials from Chinese suppliers due to prolonged customs checks since last year, sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Nikkei Asia.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Upholding the greater national cause and jointly pursuing the great cause of rejuvenation — Summary of the 2026 Cross-Strait Relations Symposium [坚守民族大义 共谋复兴伟业——2026年两岸关系研讨会综述]
Xinhua
The 2026 Cross-Strait Relations Symposium was held in Wuhan from 20 to 21 August. More than 160 relevant figures, experts and scholars from both sides of the Taiwan Strait exchanged views around the theme, “Upholding the Greater National Cause and Jointly Pursuing the Great Cause of Rejuvenation.” Participants said that people on both sides of the Strait share the same roots and origins and form a community with a shared future in which their interests are closely intertwined. They argued that people should stand on the “correct side of history” and on the side of “national justice”. Taiwan compatriots, they said, should follow the historical trend, uphold the greater national cause, join mainland compatriots in safeguarding the common homeland of the Chinese nation, and work together to advance national reunification and national rejuvenation.

Nan’an, Fujian: People from both sides of the strait pay tribute to national hero Zheng Chenggong [福建南安：两岸共谒民族英雄郑成功]
Xinhua
The ninth Nan’an Zheng Chenggong Cultural Week opened on 22 August in Nan’an, Fujian, under the theme “The Hero’s Song, the Running Era.” More than 100 Taiwanese participants gathered in the hometown of the national hero Zheng Chenggong, also known as Koxinga, to pay their respects, offer incense, commemorate their forebear and jointly promote the spirit associated with Zheng Chenggong. This year’s cultural week focuses on four main areas: promotion of the city’s cultural identity, economic and trade cooperation, historical and academic exchange, and grassroots folk and cultural exchanges, with the aim of advancing cross-Strait integrated development. After a brief opening ceremony, guests from both sides of the Strait travelled to the Zheng Chenggong Mausoleum to lay floral wreaths. All participants bowed three times in solemn remembrance of Zheng Chenggong’s historical achievement in “recovering Taiwan”.

ASPI Comment: Zheng Chenggong (鄭成功), better known in the West as Koxinga, was a 17th-century Ming loyalist and military leader. In 1661–1662, he defeated the Dutch colonial authorities in Taiwan and established a regime there loyal to the fallen Ming dynasty. He is remembered in both China and Taiwan, but Beijing especially portrays him as a national hero who “recovered Taiwan” from foreign rule, making him useful to PRC narratives that frame Taiwan as historically part of China.

CCP influence in Taiwan’s domestic politics

KMT head touts rapport at 823 memorial
Taipei Times
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun 23 August called on President William Lai to recognize the so-called “1992 consensus” to ease cross-strait tensions. The “1992 consensus” refers to a tacit understanding between the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party that both sides of the Strait acknowledge there is “one China,” with each side having its own interpretation of what “China” means. The Democratic Progressive Party has never acknowledged the “1992 consensus,” saying that Beijing does not recognize the ROC and acceptance of the understanding would imply agreement with China’s territorial claim over Taiwan. Cheng made the remarks during a visit to the 823 Artillery Bombardment Museum in Kinmen to mark the 68th anniversary of the battle.

Bellicose language about Taiwan

F-16Vs headed to Taiwan region; expert says incapable of shifting cross-Straits air power balance
Global Times
Recent media attention has focused on Taiwan region’s purchase of 66 F-16V (Blk 70) fighter jets from the US, the first two of which are now en route to the island. A mainland expert said the induction of these jets cannot change the cross-Straits air power balance. Their performance is comparable to the PLA’s J-10C, but against the likes of J-16, J-20 and J-35, their tactical value is limited. The real gap, however, is not in individual aircraft, but in the PLA’s already mature air combat system.

Pressuring others to refer to Taiwan incorrectly as a part of China

Etihad apologizes for in-flight broadcast
Taipei Times
The Civil Aviation Administration on 21 August said that it received an apology from Etihad Airways, after a Taiwanese passenger complained that an inflight announcement on a flight to Taipei referred to Taiwan as “Taiwan, China,” prompting the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to request an apology and correction. A Taiwanese passenger last week posted on social media their experience of taking an Etihad Airways flight from Abu Dhabi to Taipei earlier this month. They said that upon arrival at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport, the inflight announcement said “Welcome to Taiwan” in English, but “Welcome to Taiwan, China,” in Chinese, and also warned that bringing meat products from abroad could result in a penalty from the “Chinese government.”

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Taiwan Affairs Office: Lai Ching-te’s “fake democracy, real dictatorship” has long been notorious [国台办：赖清德“假民主、真独裁”早已恶名远扬]
Xinhua
Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, said at a regular press conference on 19 August that since taking office, Lai Ching-te had stubbornly adhered to a “Taiwan independence” separatist position, acted arrogantly and autocratically, abused power and governed recklessly. She accused Lai of ignoring public opinion and livelihoods in Taiwan, continuously provoking political confrontation, suppressing opponents, creating “Green Terror” and a “chilling effect”, and deepening internal divisions in Taiwanese society in pursuit of what she called a “Taiwan independence dictatorship”. Zhu said Lai’s “fake democracy, real dictatorship” had long been notorious.

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

DPP pushes Taiwan region defense budget past $35b to record high, squeezing livelihoods
CGTN
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities are pushing the Taiwan region’s defense budget to a record high of NT$1.1225 trillion ($35.2 billion) in 2027, surpassing NT$1 trillion for the first time and accounting for 3.93% of GDP, according to media reports on the island. Lai Ching-te has previously pledged to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2030, raising concerns that ever-growing military expenditure will further squeeze resources for people’s livelihoods and economic development … The soaring budget is closely tied to an expanding military procurement agenda with the United States. Since the beginning of this year, US politicians have made a series of visits to the Taiwan region under the guise of "exchanges," while in practice pressing the DPP authorities for more arms purchases.

No incidents to report this week.

Challenging other countries’ One-China policies

Time to retire US outdated Taiwan Straits playbook: Hai Feng
Global Times
For years, the US has repeatedly invoked “freedom of navigation” and “international airspace” to justify its maneuvers in the Taiwan Straits, aiming to achieve two goals: maintaining its strategic presence in the Western Pacific and reassuring its “allies” and local forces on the island of Taiwan. Yet the reality today is that the Taiwan Straits is no longer a stage where the US military can come and go at will just to put on a show … Every time the US seeks to assert its presence in the Taiwan Straits, it merely exposes its underlying strategic contradictions and anxiety. It wants to stabilize ties with China, yet refuses to give up the Taiwan card; it fears the situation going out of control, yet continuously creates risk; it seeks to project global hegemony, yet finds it increasingly difficult to hold the upper hand on the ground. Consequently, such moves may look aggressive, but they are increasingly becoming political performances with diminishing marginal returns.

• US Navy aircraft transits Taiwan Strait before planned Xi-Trump meeting. Reuters

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Anwar’s Taiwan remarks put Malaysia’s Beijing calculus in focus
South China Morning Post
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s emphatic backing of Beijing’s position on Taiwan has won praise and diplomatic goodwill from mainland China, even as Kuala Lumpur may face greater friction over its courting of Taiwanese semiconductor investments. Analysts said the remarks did not change Malaysia’s long-standing one-China policy, but their unusually categorical tone went beyond the typical formulation and could reinforce perceptions of closer alignment with Beijing. The more tangible potential trade-off may be commercial, particularly as Malaysia competes for future Taiwanese hi-tech investment, observers add.

• Foreign Ministry: Expresses appreciation for Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar’s remarks on Taiwan [外交部：对马来西亚总理安瓦尔涉台表态表示赞赏]. Xinhua

Regulatory changes to incentivise cross-strait integration on Beijing’s terms

Xiamen announces 12 measures to promote exchanges and cooperation with Taiwan [厦门发布促进对台交流合作十二条措施]
Xinhua
Xiamen on 18 August announced 12 measures to promote exchanges and cooperation with Taiwan, covering economic and trade cooperation, cultural exchanges, youth engagement, platform development, and service and support arrangements … A relevant Xiamen municipal official said the city would continue to uphold the concept that “people on both sides of the Strait are one family” (两岸一家亲), take the initiative in piloting new approaches, and work to make Xiamen the “first-choice destination” for Taiwanese compatriots seeking leisure and tourism, medical treatment and wellness, residence, and employment.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 11 August 2026 to 18 August 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

Taiwan’s legislature finally passed the 2026 central government budget on 14 August, ending an extraordinary political stalemate that had left the government without an approved annual budget for more than eight months.

The dispute has formed part of a wider confrontation between the executive and legislature that has paralysed parts of Taiwan’s political system since the DPP retained the presidency but lost its parliamentary majority in 2024.

This dysfunction is itself becoming a national-security vulnerability: Taiwan’s democratic system should increase the political cost to Beijing of coercion and conquest, but prolonged institutional paralysis risks weakening public confidence and slowing preparations for precisely that threat.

The Lai administration submitted the NT$3.034 trillion (A$133.5 billion) budget in August last year and it should legally have been approved by the end of 2025. Instead, repeated clashes between President Lai Ching-te’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government and the opposition-controlled legislature delayed its passage until last week.

The final compromise was less extreme than the length of the dispute might suggest. Lawmakers approved about NT$2.987 trillion (A$131.4 billion), cutting NT$48 billion (A$2.1 billion), or around 1.7 per cent, from the government’s proposal. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) has pointed to this as evidence that it was scrutinising rather than attempting to cripple government spending. But the significance lies as much in the delay and politically targeted cuts as in the headline reduction.

Defence spending emerged relatively intact from the final negotiations, but only after months of uncertainty. Military equipment and facilities were subject to some reductions, while NT$63.4 billion (A$2.8 billion) in drone-related industrial development and procurement was ultimately passed without cuts. This was an important compromise given the growing importance Taiwan places on inexpensive, mass-produced unmanned systems for asymmetric defence.

But the broader defence-budget dispute remains unresolved. In May, the same opposition-controlled legislature approved only NT$780 billion (A$34.3 billion) of Lai’s proposed NT$1.25 trillion (A$55.0 billion) special defence package, preserving funding for US weapons while excluding domestically produced capabilities including drones. A separate NT$210 billion (A$9.2 billion) proposal to procure more than 210,000 air and maritime drones through 2031 also remains contested, with the DPP and KMT disagreeing over how the programme should be funded and scrutinised.

The episode therefore highlights how Taiwan’s divided government is increasingly turning routine policymaking into prolonged institutional confrontation. Lai has struggled to build support across party lines, but the opposition has also demonstrated that its legislative majority can be used to delay major government programmes for months.

What’s happened so far:

7 August: Taiwan rehearsed continuing operations after missile strikes, including rapid runway repair and Mirage 2000 rearming at Hsinchu, while Thunderbolt-2000 rocket systems practised striking approaching landing forces.

8 August: The exercise moved firmly into joint anti-landing operations. Naval, coastguard, missile and drone units rehearsed attacks on approaching forces, while Kinmen conducted live-fire anti-landing drills.

9 August: Taiwan began transitioning from anti-landing operations towards depth defence. Military Police used Taipei’s MRT to move troops and supplies, while chemical units practised decontaminating vehicles after a simulated chemical attack.

10 August: Taiwan shifted towards depth defence, rehearsing how to contain PLA forces after a landing. Civilian trucks moved tanks from Hualien to reinforce Yilan and defend its ports, while central Taiwan deliberately slowed mobile internet to simulate wartime communications disruption.

11 August: The exercise moved deeper into depth defence and protracted warfare. Military Police rehearsed defeating airborne forces around Songshan Airport, reservists practised mass-casualty treatment, and Matsu tested backup communications to keep command networks operating.

12 August: Fighting moved closer to Taipei. Military Police and Marines rehearsed defeating airborne forces on the Guandu Plain using armoured vehicles and attack drones, while Patriot units practised missile resupply and redeployment.

13 August: Taiwan intensified urban and infrastructure defence. Troops fortified Guangfu Bridge and the approaches to Taipei, practised blocking the Snow Mountain Tunnel, and conducted the first Navy-Coast Guard transfer of strategic supplies from an amphibious ship. Northern Taiwan also repeated the mobile-internet slowdown drill.

14 August: Han Kuang 42 concluded after 10 days and nine nights. Units conducted combat-power reconstitution, inspecting and repairing equipment before returning to their bases, bringing the exercise’s protracted-war phase to an end.

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

Taiwan drone defences fall short against Beijing’s evolving technology, audit reveals
South China Morning Post
Taiwan’s push to build a modern counter-drone shield has come under renewed scrutiny after an official audit uncovered technical shortcomings and a key procurement programme collapsed following repeated testing failures. The developments have fuelled concerns that Taipei’s efforts to match Beijing’s rapidly evolving drone technology are being undermined by capability gaps, procurement failures and delays in building an integrated counter-drone network. According to a recent report by Taiwan’s Audit Office, the military’s NT$3.55 billion (US$111 million) fixed-site counter-drone programme has significant shortcomings, despite being designed to protect airbases and other key military facilities.

• Hsiao says stronger Taiwan defenses required to deter China. Taiwan News

Is China seeking to copy Iran’s Strait of Hormuz blockade around Taiwan?
Al-Jazeera
Taiwan has long prepared for a Chinese military invasion, but wars in Iran and Ukraine are exposing new potential threats. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has raised fears China may emulate its tactics in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing has always claimed Taiwan as part of its territory and with the US caught in the Iran war, there are fears they would not come to Taiwan’s aid. A blockade by China would have dire global consequences for a world dependent on Taiwan’s semiconductor industry.

Testing Taiwan’s coastal defence capabilities

US team sent to Taiwan to train coastguards amid surge in mainland Chinese activity
South China Morning Post
The United States has sent a team of coastguards to train their Taiwanese counterparts as Beijing steps up its presence east of the island. Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration said on 14 August that its personnel were taking part in a two-week training programme led by US instructors. The training, which started on Monday, includes exercises aimed at strengthening small-boat operations and team coordination. “The US instruction team hopes to deepen the partnership between the two sides through joint training and work together to promote maritime security and stability,” the administration said.

• Taiwan says US training coast guard as China ramps up patrols. The Straits Times

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

No incidents to report this week.

CCP influence in Taiwan’s domestic politics

China wants to block drone bill: source
Taipei Times
The Legislative Yuan is slated to hold cross-caucus negotiations on 14 versions of a draft uncrewed vehicle act on 20 August, amid rumors that Beijing is pressuring some Taiwanese politicians to block passage of a special bill proposed by the Ministry of National Defense to procure military drones and uncrewed vessels. A source in Beijing said the Chinese Communist Party has been using its United Front Work Department and Taiwan Affairs Office to pressure Taiwanese politicians who are friendly toward Beijing, pushing them to block the Executive Yuan’s proposed special act to fund military uncrewed vehicles.

AI could intensify Chinese election interference: DPP
Taipei Times
Beijing has established a comprehensive election interference industry supply chain for Taiwan, using artificial intelligence to target specific groups, impersonate people with highly realistic and tailored language and social media ecosystems with deepfake videos before elections, the Democratic Progressive Party’s China Affairs Department said yesterday. The Chinese Communist Party continues to expand its efforts to influence politics and society in Taiwan by combining economic and military threats, launching cyberattacks and spreading misinformation, the department said.

Bellicose language about Taiwan

China calls Taiwan’s annual military drills a ‘wasteful charade’
Reuters
China’s defence ministry on 14 August dismissed Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang military drills as a “wasteful charade” that “stoked ​war panic”, in the Chinese government’s first official comment on the 10 ‌days of war games since they began last week … The exercises rehearsed various scenarios should China ever make good on ​threats to try to seize the island by force, including how ⁠to break a maritime blockade and, for the first time, slowing mobile internet. “The so-called ‘Han ​Kuang exercise’ has always been a posturing, wasteful charade,” Chinese defence ministry spokesperson Chen ​Xi said in a statement. “The Democratic Progressive Party authorities have also recklessly stoked war panic, accelerating efforts to turn cities into battlefields and push ordinary people to the front lines,” he ​added, referring to Taiwan’s ruling party.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

What message do these three New York Times reports send to Taiwan region?: Hai Feng
Global Times
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities have long treated statements by US officials and US media reports as gospel. A few words of “praise” or “support” from Washington are enough to send them into raptures, only to be repackaged as so-called “security guarantees” and touted as a so-called protective talisman for its “reliance on the US to seek ‘Taiwan independence.’” However, three consecutive reports published by The New York Times over the past two days have punctured their fantasy … The most dangerous deception by the DPP authorities is leading the people of Taiwan region into a false assumption: the US has formidable military power, so as long as Taiwan region relies on the US, Washington will necessarily have the capability, willingness and resolve to fight a prolonged, high-intensity war for Taiwan region.

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

Taiwan groups warn of Taiwan Strait security risks due to Japan’s neo-militarism
CGTN
Several Taiwan-based groups have voiced opposition to Japan’s neo-militarism, warning that Tokyo’s push for a greater military role in regional affairs could undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and throughout East Asia. Their concerns were expressed at forums, seminars and a public gathering held on 14 and 15 August, as 15 August this year marks the 81st anniversary of Japan’s unconditional surrender in World War II. At a forum in Taipei, more than 10 organizations, including the Reunification Alliance Party, brought together scholars and experts from both sides of the Taiwan Strait, as well as from Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Japan and Australia.

• Taiwan groups warn against threat of Japan’s “new militarism” to Taiwan Strait security [台湾团体：警惕日本“新型军国主义”危害台海安全]. Xinhua

Cyber attacks on Taiwan’s military or defence industry

Taiwan says it was hit by ‘abnormal’ AI-assisted cyber-attack
The Guardian
Taiwan says it detected AI-assisted cyber-attacks on government agencies that came from overseas last month, a new kind of threat that has been reported as “first-of-a-kind breach”. The Ministry of Digital Affairs said its cybersecurity monitoring units ‌detected the “abnormal attack” targeting government agencies, which began on 20 July. The National Institute of Cyber Security issued a series of warning alerts while it investigated … Chinese cyber-attacks on Taiwan’s key infrastructure, from hospitals to banks, rose 6% in 2025 from the previous year to an average of 2.63m attacks a ⁠day, the island’s National Security Bureau said in January, adding some hacks were synchronised with military drills in “hybrid threats” to paralyse the island.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Foreign Ministry urges Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat to uphold the One China principle [外交部：敦促太平洋岛国论坛秘书处恪守一个中国原则]
Xinhua
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said on 11 August that China urged the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat to uphold the One China principle, properly handle Taiwan-related issues, and avoid affecting the healthy and stable development of relations between China and the Forum … Guo said China’s position on the participation of the Taiwan region of China in the activities of international organisations was consistent and clear: such matters must be handled in accordance with the One China principle. He said this was also a basic norm governing international relations, as affirmed by UN General Assembly Resolution 2758, and a general consensus of the international community.

Artists protest Gwangju Biennale’s removal of ‘Taiwan Pavilion’ name
Focus Taiwan
Taiwanese artists and curators on Saturday issued a joint statement protesting what they called the “political censorship” of the Taiwan Pavilion by the Gwangju Biennale, which removed “Taiwan” from its promotional materials and replaced it with NTMoFA, the abbreviation for the National Taiwan Museum of Fine Arts. The statement, signed by 10 Taiwanese artists and curators invited to participate in the biennale in South Korea, accused the Gwangju Biennale Foundation of politically censoring an art exhibition. The artists said the museum had communicated with the organizers under the name “Taiwan Pavilion” since the proposal stage, but “Taiwan” was removed from the official poster released in August without prior notice and replaced with “NTMoFA,” while all other participating institutions and countries were identified accurately.

Indonesia is the latest country to validate China’s claim to Taiwan – unwittingly or not
The Diplomat
On the morning of 12 August, China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and an Indonesian Navy warship conducted a joint navigation exercise in the waters east of Taiwan. It was the first time China had exercised with a foreign military in these geopolitically sensitive waters. The announcement a day earlier had drawn a swift rebuke from Taiwan’s authorities, which called the exercise an act of political manipulation, “aimed at creating a false impression before the international community that the Chinese communists have jurisdiction over waters east of Taiwan.” The United States similarly called on China “to cease its continuous military pressure against Taiwan.”

• Chinese Navy’s Honghe and Indonesian Navy frigate “Rai” successfully complete maritime navigation exercise in waters east of Taiwan [中国海军红河舰与印尼海军“莱”号护卫舰位台岛以东海域圆满完成海上通航演练]. Xinhua

Detention of Taiwanese nationals in China

New PRC exit-entry rules: MAC says government must warn of risks [中共出入境新規　陸委會：政府必須提出風險提醒]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
China’s new State Council Regulations on Exit and Entry Administration will take effect on 15 September. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) reiterated today that the government has a responsibility to warn the public about the risks, noting that in previous cases involving Taiwanese people sentenced in China, “they treated Taiwanese people as Chinese nationals.” The Mainland Affairs Council held its regular press conference this afternoon, chaired by Deputy Minister and spokesperson Liang Wen-chieh. Asked by the media whether the government was over-interpreting the risks posed by the new regulations to Taiwanese people entering and leaving China, Liang said the rules were comprehensive and applied to a range of people, including Chinese citizens and foreigners.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 4 August 2026 to 11 August 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

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On 8 August, China sought to impose maritime traffic controls in the Taiwan Strait as Typhoon Dolphin approached the region, prompting Taipei to reject Beijing’s authority to regulate shipping through the waterway.

It was not the first time. Chinese maritime authorities had imposed similar controls during another typhoon in late July and, earlier that month, reportedly conducted their first coordinated cross-regional traffic-control operation in the Taiwan Strait. What makes the latest incident significant, therefore, is not its novelty but its growing normality: Beijing is increasingly using ostensibly routine maritime-safety measures to assert that Chinese authorities have the right to direct commercial shipping through the Strait.

Chinese maritime authorities broadcast instructions directing vessels to follow traffic-control measures and seek shelter from the storm. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council called the move “ridiculous”, while Taiwan’s Coast Guard told vessels operating in the area to disregard Chinese instructions. Taiwan said it had not observed Chinese authorities physically interfering with commercial vessels.

Nor was the weather threat invented. Typhoon Dolphin posed genuine risks to shipping and subsequently forced China to close ports and take other emergency measures along its east coast. The significance of Beijing’s actions lies in the authority China was asserting over civilian shipping in the strait.

Last week’s incident follows a more assertive Chinese maritime law-enforcement operation in June. From 6 to 10 June, Chinese maritime authorities conducted a “special maritime traffic law-enforcement operation” in waters east of Taiwan. Beijing claimed nearly 200 vessels were inspected and three were found to have violated regulations. Taiwan said Chinese authorities had contacted merchant vessels and requested information including their origin and destination, prompting Taipei to instruct ships to reject Chinese demands.

The two incidents used different justifications. The June operation was explicitly framed as law enforcement; the August measures were presented as a response to dangerous weather. But both demonstrate how Beijing can use civilian and paramilitary agencies to assert that Chinese authorities have the right to regulate commercial activity in waters around Taiwan. Most of the Taiwan Strait lies beyond either side’s territorial waters, largely within overlapping exclusive economic zones, where international law preserves freedom of navigation and does not give coastal authorities a general right to control passing commercial shipping. Beijing has increasingly asserted sovereignty and jurisdiction over the Strait since 2022, but its claim to sovereignty over waters beyond its territorial sea has no basis under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

For Beijing, this is a way to gradually normalise Chinese jurisdiction without needing to declare a blockade or relying solely on the PLA. Maritime safety, inspections, customs enforcement or other regulatory measures could provide ostensibly administrative justifications for directing commercial vessels. The more frequently ships comply with such instructions, the easier it becomes for Beijing to establish a practical expectation that Chinese maritime authorities must be taken into account.

For Taipei, that presents a difficult problem. While rejecting Beijing’s jurisdiction is straightforward, preventing commercial vessels from complying is much harder. Shipowners and captains will make decisions based on safety, insurance and commercial risk as much as questions of sovereignty. Taiwan therefore needs not only the capability to keep sea lanes open, but credible procedures for reassuring and protecting commercial shipping when Chinese authorities issue competing instructions.

5-14 August: Han Kuang 42

What’s happened so far:

5 August: Taiwan began by rehearsing survival of the opening phase of a conflict. Aircraft, ships, mobile missile launchers and air-defence units dispersed from bases, reservists mobilised, and Marine Corps units reinforced the area around Taipei.

6 August: The focus shifted to protecting critical infrastructure and maintaining government continuity. Forces practised blocking major ports, deployed air-defence systems around northern Taiwan, fortified the new Danjiang Bridge, and President Lai Ching-te took part in a continuity-of-government drill.

7 August: Taiwan rehearsed fighting after missile strikes. At Hsinchu Air Base, crews repaired simulated runway damage, rapidly rearmed jet fighters and returned aircraft to operations. Civil-defence drills also began in southern Taiwan.

8 August: The scenario moved into the anti-landing phase. Naval, coastguard, missile and drone units rehearsed attacks on approaching invasion forces, while Kinmen conducted live-fire anti-landing drills involving artillery, Javelin missiles, tanks and bomb-dropping drones.

9 August: Anti-landing operations expanded across Taiwan. Mobile Hsiung Feng II and III anti-ship missile batteries deployed to Penghu, Military Police used Taipei’s MRT network to move troops and supplies, and chemical defence units rehearsed responses to attacks on critical infrastructure.

10 August: Taiwan shifted towards depth defence, rehearsing how to contain PLA forces after a landing. Penghu held live-fire anti-landing drills, civilian trucks moved tanks from Hualien to reinforce Yilan, and central Taiwan deliberately slowed mobile internet to simulate wartime communications disruption.

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

How Beijing’s hypersonic ‘carrier killers’ could distract US forces in a Taiwan conflict
South China Morning Post
The advancement and diversification of Beijing’s anti-ship missile platforms have bolstered its denial capabilities in the first island chain and could divert US and allied navies from warfare in a Taiwan Strait contingency, according to analysts. Last week, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV released a video of a Type 052D destroyer firing a YJ-20 hypersonic anti-ship missile from its vertical launch system, showcasing the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s increased ability to target surface combatants. The YJ-20 is one of China’s first sea-based hypersonic anti-ship missiles to have entered mass production, highlighting Beijing’s advances in its naval defence amid a military modernisation drive to narrow gaps with the US.

Testing Taiwan’s coastal defence capabilities

Taipei says China’s traffic control order for Taiwan Strait during typhoon is ‘ridiculous’
Reuters
China’s attempt to implement traffic control measures on shipping heading into the Taiwan Strait during Typhoon Dolphin is “ridiculous”, Taipei said, adding ​that Beijing has no right to restrict access to international waters … On 5 August, Chinese state media said that due ​to the approach of the typhoon, starting from Thursday night, ⁠ships heading north through the southern entrance of the Taiwan Strait must ​heed traffic control measures. All vessels must comply with requirements, choose safe waters ​to shelter from the storm, and follow the instructions of on-site maritime management authorities to ensure safety at sea, it said.

• The China Coast Guard is conducting routine law enforcement patrols in the waters east of Taiwan Island [中国海警位中国台湾岛以东海域依法开展常态化执法巡查]. Xinhua

• Mainland China claims to control vessels in the Taiwan Strait; Mainland Affairs Council: This violates international norms [陸聲稱交管台海船舶　陸委會：違反國際規範]. Central News Agency (Taiwan)

Taiwan decries China over Japan patrol tailing
Taipei Times
Taiwan yesterday condemned reported actions by the China Coast Guard against a Japanese patrol vessel attempting to shelter from Typhoon Dolphin, saying that emergency refuge should not be used to challenge Taiwan’s sovereignty or jurisdiction. Ocean Affairs Council (OAC) Deputy Minister Sung Chen-en made the remarks after reports that China Coast Guard vessel No. 2304 on the night of 7 August tailed the Japan Coast Guard’s Urado (PL-86) as it sailed from waters off Taichung toward Penghu County to evade the typhoon.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

No incidents to report this week.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

China Museum for Fujian-Taiwan Kinship establishes 14 genealogy contact points across the Taiwan Strait [闽台缘博物馆在两岸设立14个寻根联络点]
Xinhua
The China Museum for Fujian-Taiwan Kinship has established 14 contact points on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to assist people tracing their ancestral roots, according to information released on 8 August at the sixth Cross-Strait Folk Genealogy and Culture Exchange Conference held at the museum. Located in Quanzhou, Fujian Province, the China Museum for Fujian-Taiwan Kinship is a national first-class museum devoted to the historical relationship between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan. In July 2025, the museum established the “Fujian-Taiwan Ancestral Roots Tracing Service and Exchange Centre”. At the same time, it set up six ancestral-root tracing sites in Xiamen, Zhangzhou and Quanzhou, covering four categories: entry points for Taiwan compatriots arriving in Fujian, clan associations and ancestral halls, ancestral temples and shrines, and former residences of notable figures connected to Taiwan.

Falsely portraying Taiwan as the aggressor or obstacle to peace

Taiwan’s real crisis lies in living amid political theater and emotional mobilization: Hai Feng
Global Times
The DPP authorities have issued too many alarms and repeated too many slogans. “Resilience,” “preparedness” and “defense” have become constant talking points. Faced with repeated political messaging and media amplification, many residents have been left with only fatigue and numbness. Over time, drills have long since become mere formalities, alarms become background noise, and the so-called “whole-of-society defense resilience” remains confined to documents and political rhetoric. For years, the DPP authorities have fueled cross-Straits confrontation and exaggerated tensions across the Taiwan Straits in an attempt to mobilize public sentiment around “resisting China and protecting Taiwan.” Yet the reality is that calls for exchanges, peace and opposition to “Taiwan independence” separatist forces have continued to grow on the island.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Taiwan’s ‘status downgrade’ complaint over Nagasaki memorial ceremony seating exposes DPP’s illusion of seeking international recognition: mainland experts
Global Times
The reported refusal by a delegation from the Taiwan island to attend Nagasaki’s annual atomic bomb memorial ceremony over a seating arrangement dispute has once again highlighted the island authorities’ attempt to seek a higher political status through international occasions, mainland experts slammed on Sunday, noting that such efforts cannot alter the historical and legal reality of Taiwan’s status, only humiliating themselves.

• Taipei protests ‘snub’ at Japan memorial. Taipei Times

Taiwan Affairs Office: DPP authorities cannot suppress Taiwanese youths’ desire to seek opportunities and development [国台办：民进党当局倒行逆施锁不住台湾青年寻机遇、求发展的心]
Xinhua
Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said on 7 August that the Democratic Progressive Party authorities had disregarded Taiwanese young people’s desire and need for exchanges and development by openly blocking access to “Taiwan Youth e-Home” [台青e家]. He said the stated reasons — risks of personal data leaks, co-optation through “united front” work, and “governing Taiwan before unification” — were all examples of “Taiwan independence” rhetoric. “Does giving Taiwanese young people one more opportunity count as ‘united front’ work? Does allowing Taiwanese young people to make their own comparisons constitute a ‘risk’?” Chen said. “In reality, the more they block it, the more it proves that ‘Taiwan Youth e-Home’ meets the needs of Taiwanese young people and touches a sore point for the DPP authorities.”

• The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) has blocked the “Taiwan Youth e-Home” website, stating that it is legally blocking illegal websites [封鎖「台青e家」　陸委會：依法封鎖違法網站]. Central News Agency (Taiwan)

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

Taiwan civil society groups issue joint statement protesting authorities’ petition to dissolve pro-unification political party [台湾民间团体联合声明抗议当局声请解散统派政党]
Xinhua
More than 20 Taiwan civil society groups, including the Labor Party, the Taiwan Association for Political Victims’ Mutual Assistance and the Cross-Strait Peaceful Development Forum, recently issued a joint statement strongly protesting what they described as an abuse of power by the Democratic Progressive Party authorities in seeking the dissolution of the Chinese Unification Promotion Party. The statement said the move was a dangerous sign that the DPP was using the machinery of government to suppress political opponents and conduct political persecution. The groups called on Taiwan’s interior authorities to immediately withdraw the petition seeking the party’s dissolution.

No incidents to report this week.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Taiwanese travelers meet with visa problems in Uganda
Taiwan News
Uganda confiscated the passport of a Taiwanese resident at the airport and sent another tourist back home, refusing him entry into the country, reports said 8 August. Both incidents occurred at the East African country’s Entebbe Airport earlier this month, per UDN. Immigration officials cited a “new policy” as the reason for the treatment of the Taiwanese … Uganda is the second African country making travel difficult for Taiwanese, after Morocco announced in July it would no longer process visa applications from Taiwanese travelers at its embassy in Japan. Taiwan responded by suspending most visa requests by Moroccan nationals from 30 July.

• Taiwan regional travelers with so-called ‘passports’ denied entry to Uganda; mainland expert says separatist pursuits keep narrowing island’s international space. Global Times

• Ministry taking steps over Uganda passport seizures. Taipei Times

Detention of Taiwanese nationals in China

Taiwanese teacher detained in China; SEF says religious factors may be involved [台籍教師在陸被拘禁　海基會：恐涉及宗教因素]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) Secretary-General Lo Wen-jia on 7 August disclosed a case involving a Taiwanese teacher who had taught in China for more than 10 years and was detained in late May. Lo said the reason for the detention may be related to religious factors, and again warned Taiwanese citizens of the risks of travelling to or working in China … Lo reminded Taiwanese citizens that travelling to or working in China carries risks. He also called on the Chinese authorities to take seriously the protection of the personal safety of Taiwanese people in China.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 28 July 2026 to 4 August 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

Taiwan will begin its 42nd annual ‘Han Kuang’ military exercise on 5 August, launching ten days and nine nights of continuous drills intended to test how the island would respond if Chinese coercion suddenly became a conflict. The most important development will be the growing emphasis on whether Taiwan can continue fighting after its communications, command centres, ports and defence industry have come under attack.

‘Han Kuang 42’ will run until 14 August and is expected to begin with the rapid transition from routine readiness to full combat operations. The scenario developed during April’s computer-assisted exercise moved progressively from grey-zone harassment to high-intensity conflict, including Chinese forces using exercises around Taiwan to conceal preparations for an attack. Taiwan’s forces are therefore likely to practise dispersing aircraft, ships, missiles and command posts before they can be targeted, while operating continuously under degraded communications and decentralised command.

The exercise should include familiar scenarios: defending ports and airports, countering amphibious landings, protecting Taipei and responding to missile, cyber and drone attacks. However, several elements will go further than previous years. Taiwan will simulate relocating weapons-production lines after factories are struck, including facilities operated by the military and private defence contractors. The objective is to determine whether production can be dispersed while continuing to supply the armed forces during a prolonged conflict.

Taiwan will also conduct its first large-scale test of civilian communications under simulated wartime constraints. Mobile internet speeds will be deliberately reduced across parts of central and northern Taiwan, leaving voice calls and text messages available while testing how the public and emergency services function without normal mobile data. This points to a broader shift in ‘Han Kuang’ from demonstrating battlefield capabilities towards testing national endurance.

Other new features will be more operational. Two brigade-sized reserve formations involving as many as 5,000 personnel will be mobilised, doubling last year’s brigade-level experiment. Units will use US-style “backbriefs”, requiring subordinate commanders to explain how they intend to complete missions rather than simply acknowledging orders. Taiwan’s new Littoral Combat Command will also participate, bringing coastal missiles, mobile radar and unmanned systems under a unified structure.

Beijing will almost certainly condemn the exercise as an attempt by the Lai government to “resist unification by force” and rely on US support. During Han Kuang 41, China dismissed the drills as a “bluff”. Similar rhetoric is likely this year, accompanied by claims that Taiwan’s new weapons cannot alter the military balance.

Beijing’s response is less predictable. The China Coast Guard’s expanding patrols east of Taiwan suggest Beijing increasingly wants to demonstrate not only military encirclement but claimed law-enforcement authority over Taiwan’s maritime approaches.

The central question will be whether ‘Han Kuang 42’ demonstrates more than visible activity. Taiwan is now preparing for a conflict that could begin ambiguously, escalate rapidly and continue for months. The exercise will test whether its forces, and the wider society supporting them, can absorb the opening blow and keep operating.

5-14 August: Han Kuang 42

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

Will Philippine Sea be the main battlefield for PLA carriers in a Taiwan war?
South China Morning Post
For decades, the Philippine Sea has been seen as the gateway through which US and allied forces would sail to Taiwan’s defence in a war with the Chinese mainland. But with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) increasingly pushing into the western Pacific, experts say Beijing would seek to place aircraft carriers in the waters east of Taiwan to complicate any intervention. Rather than a gateway, the Philippine Sea could be a critical battleground.

PLA building more Taiwan mock-ups
Taipei Times
The Ministry of National Defense yesterday said it is monitoring the construction of full-scale replicas of military and government sites in Taiwan by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA). The comments from ministry spokesman Major General Sun Li-fang come after a report by the Telegraph on satellite imagery showing replicas of Taiwan’s Presidential Office Building, Suao Naval Base and other sites. Citing satellite imagery and defense analysts, the report, published on Sunday, said that the PLA had built life-size replicas of key government facilities to rehearse military operations under realistic conditions

Testing Taiwan’s coastal defence capabilities

China Coast Guard conducts regular patrols in waters east of China’s Taiwan Island
CGTN
A formation of the China Coast Guard (CCG)’s Xiushan vessel conducted regular law enforcement patrols in accordance with the law in waters east of China’s Taiwan Island on 31 July, CCG spokesperson Jiang Lue said. Since July, the Xiushan vessel formation has continued to strengthen maritime control in the relevant waters, effectively maintaining the normal order of navigation and operations while safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests, as well as the safety of life and property, of Chinese people, including Taiwan compatriots, Jiang said.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

Corporate espionage or undermining business practices

Chinese ICT components slip under radar: report
Taipei Times
Some vendors have falsely labeled Chinese information and communications technology (ICT) products as made in Taiwan for government contracts, the National Audit Office said in a report, calling on the Executive Yuan to improve regulations to prevent such security risks. Government agencies have been following the Ministry of Digital Affairs’ policies on ICT products and could submit suspicious products to the ministry for review, the Executive Yuan said. Agencies revised procedures and required their subordinates to conduct information security checks before procurement to reduce supply chain risks, it added.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Expert warns of risks in China exchange programs
Taipei Times
A human rights advocate recently said that a Taiwan youth camp in China could use artificial intelligence (AI) deepfakes to coerce participants into becoming collaborators in China’s “united front” tactics. China is hosting summer camps for young Taiwanese, featuring low-cost food, hotel accommodation and transportation, sources said. The “Chinese culture study camp,” which is to be held early this month, is offering an eight-day, seven-night trip to Chengdu, Dujiangyan, Meishan and Yibin in Sichuan Province for Taiwanese university students, they said … The greatest risk of taking part in such trips is that Chinese authorities could use AI-generated deepfakes to fabricate footage of them visiting inappropriate places or soliciting prostitutes, and use those to pressure participants into becoming Chinese collaborators when they return to Taiwan, [human rights advocate Lee Ming-che] said.

• Control Yuan points to imbalance in cross-strait educational exchanges; Mainland Affairs Council calls for stronger awareness of CCP united-front activities [監院指兩岸教育交流失衡　陸委會：強化中共統戰識讀]. Central News Agency (Taiwan)

More than 150 writers from both sides of the Taiwan Strait gather in Xiamen for a literary exchange [两岸150多位作家齐聚厦门共赴文学之约]
Xinhua
The 2026 Cross-Strait Literature Week and the 14th Cross-Strait Literary Writers’ Gathering opened in Xiamen on 31 July. With the theme “Accompanied by Poetry and Books, Enjoying Literature”, the event brought together more than 150 prominent writers, poets, scholars, film and television experts, copyright specialists and youth representatives from both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Using literature as a bridge and the written word as a medium, the event aims to create a new platform for the integrated development of cross-strait literature and the adaptation of literary intellectual property, while promoting a closer emotional bond between people on both sides.

Red panda meet-and-greet suspected of being a united-front activity; Chiu Chui-cheng says it could weaken Taiwan’s vigilance [小貓熊見面會涉統戰　邱垂正：鬆懈台灣]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
The Taipei City Government had planned to invite a Shanghai delegation to Taiwan to attend a red panda meet-and-greet, but the event was suspected of having a united-front purpose. Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an questioned how it was related to united-front work. Mainland Affairs Council Minister Chiu Chui-cheng said the Chinese Communist Party was steadily increasing pressure on Taiwan and that such an event could cause Taiwan to lower its guard against threats from China … At a time when the CCP was steadily increasing pressure and applying maximum coercion against Taiwan, Chiu asked, “Why should we still cooperate with activities of this kind?” He noted that Japan had also sent red pandas to Taipei Zoo, but asked why there had been no comparable meet-and-greet with Japan. “Why does this require a meet-and-greet with a united-front character, and why must the head of the Taiwan Affairs Office attend?” Chiu said. He argued that this was inappropriate and was clearly intended to generate publicity for the event.

Bellicose language about Taiwan

China’s defense minister vows to thwart any attempt at ‘Taiwan independence’, external interference on PLA’s 99th anniversary
Global Times
Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun said on 31 July that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will serve as a steadfast bulwark for China’s national reunification, resolutely thwart any attempt at “Taiwan independence” separatism or external military interference, and fulfill its sacred mission of safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests, in a speech delivered at a reception at the Great Hall of the People to celebrate the 99th founding anniversary of the PLA.

• Those who pursue ‘Taiwan independence’ will find themselves in the crosshairs. Global Times

Falsely portraying Taiwan as the aggressor or obstacle to peace

The stronger the PLA, the greater the guarantee of peace across the Taiwan Straits: Hai Feng
Global Times
In recent years, some people on the island of Taiwan have repeatedly asked: If the Chinese mainland advocates peaceful reunification, why does it continue to strengthen troop training, enhance combat preparedness, and maintain a strong deterrent posture in the Taiwan Straits? The answer is not complicated: Peaceful reunification represents the Chinese mainland’s greatest sincerity, while strengthening the military and maintaining combat readiness represent the nation’s firm bottom line. The former sets the direction, and the latter secures it. Without a sufficiently strong PLA, peace could be gradually “eroded” by “Taiwan independence” separatist forces and external interveners.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Taiwan regional media hype annual Han Kuang drills; mainland expert dismisses these unrealistic tactical gambits as mere ‘performance’
Global Times
The annual Han Kuang military drills of the Taiwan region are set to kick off on 5 August, with certain media of the island hyping up highlights that they claimed as “the first time.” Yet a mainland military affairs expert said the unrealistic gambits of Taiwan’s regional authorities are pursued unscrupulously with blatant disregard for local residents’ livelihoods, and such tactics are entirely futile … By incessantly stoking war anxiety and provoking cross-Straits confrontation and hostility, they attempt to drag Taiwan’s general public onto the chariot of “Taiwan independence.” Their doomed fate is nothing but the total failure and collapse of the separatist “Taiwan independence” agenda, [Jiang Bin, a spokesperson for the Ministry of National Defense] said.

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

Taiwan civil-society groups issue joint statement protesting authorities’ petition to dissolve pro-unification party [台湾民间团体联合声明抗议当局声请解散统派政党]
Xinhua
More than 20 Taiwanese civil-society groups, including the Labor Party of Taiwan, the Taiwan Association for Political Victims’ Mutual Assistance and the Cross-Strait Peace and Development Forum, recently issued a joint statement strongly protesting what they described as an abuse of power by the Democratic Progressive Party authorities in seeking the dissolution of the Chinese Unification Promotion Party. The statement said the move was a dangerous sign that the DPP was using the machinery of government to suppress political opponents and conduct political trials. The groups called on Taiwan’s interior authorities to withdraw the dissolution petition immediately.

ASPI Comment: The DPP government says the case targets the Chinese Unification Promotion Party’s alleged conduct, not support for unification itself. It argues that senior figures worked with CCP authorities, facilitated Chinese funding and engaged in influence, election interference and other activities that threatened Taiwan’s national security and democratic order. Taiwan’s Constitutional Court will ultimately decide whether the evidence justifies dissolving the party.

No incidents to report this week.

Challenging other countries’ One-China policies

Chinese embassy in Israel: Claims on Taiwan distort fact and history
The Jerusalem Post
The Chinese Embassy in Israel would like to point out the factual errors we found in a recent Jerusalem Post article entitled “Lessons from Taiwan to win on the 8th Front” and clarify the facts. The author refers to China’s Taiwan region as a “country” and describes the head of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Tel Aviv as an “ambassador.” This exposes his lack of understanding of history and facts, as well as his ignorance of Israel’s foreign policy and China-Israel relations.

Prosecuting Taiwanese “separatists”

Tibetan activists protest China ethnic unity law at bank
Taipei Times
Tibetan and human rights activists on 2 August protested China’s new ethnic unity law outside the Bank of China’s Taipei branch, calling on people around the world to resist China’s authoritarian rule and speak up for oppressed ethnic minorities. 2 August marked one month since Tibetan activist Lobga Rangzen self-immolated in protest, and his family hoped the date would act as a “global action day,” calling on Tibetan communities and human rights groups around the world to take part in coordinated actions.

Taiwan exposes China’s transnational repression
Taiwan News
Less than a week after China’s Ethnic Unity and Progress Promotion Law took effect, Japanese political commentator and former Sankei Shimbun Taipei bureau chief Yaita Akio was attacked in Taichung by a Chinese national from Hong Kong later reported to have links to organized crime. Such tactics are not entirely new. Hong Kong singer Denise Ho was attacked in Taipei on 29 September 2019, before attending the 929 March Against Totalitarianism. Two Chinese Unification Promotion Party members splashed red paint on Ho in an attempt to intimidate supporters attending the pro-democracy rally in solidarity with Hong Kong’s anti-extradition movement. The latest attack on Yaita is a reminder of Beijing’s authoritarian repression tactics. One of its favored methods is outsourcing dirty work to organized crime groups and proxy networks.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 21 July 2026 to 28 July 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

China conducted two days of live-fire exercises near Taiwan on 23 and 24 July, marking another instance of military activity that was limited in scale but contributed to the growing normalisation of Chinese military coercion near and around Taiwan.

The exercises ran from 6 am to 6 pm local time on both days in two partially overlapping areas near Dongshan Island, off the coast of Fujian province. All the firing zones were within approximately 12 kilometres of China’s coastline, well away from Taiwan’s territorial waters and the median line. China did not identify the participating units, weapons or training scenarios, and the Eastern Theatre Command did not announce a named operation. The exercises were therefore considerably smaller than China’s recent drills encircling Taiwan.

Map from Global Taiwan Institute.

The immediate reason was not officially stated. Dongshan is a longstanding PLA training ground, particularly for amphibious and joint operations relevant to a Taiwan contingency, and Chinese military training commonly intensifies during the northern summer.

The political timing was nevertheless conspicuous. The exercises followed President Lai Ching-te’s 19 July declaration that Taiwan was not subordinate to the People’s Republic of China and that the ruling Democratic Progressive Party would not allow a democratic Taiwan to become “China’s Taiwan”. Beijing denounced those remarks as a reckless challenge to its one-China principle.

The drills also began a day after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed Taiwan in Manila. They may therefore have combined routine training with political signalling, although Beijing did not explicitly connect them to either event.

Taiwan’s foreign ministry condemned the exercises as a military provocation and called on Beijing to cease its military threats and grey-zone intrusions. The Mainland Affairs Council offered a more measured operational assessment, saying the exercises had little direct effect on Taiwan. Taiwan’s military and coastguard monitored the activity, while commercial ports continued operating normally.

The international response to these particular exercises was muted, probably reflecting their limited location and scale. No major foreign government appears to have issued a statement specifically condemning them. However, Rubio had criticised China’s growing coastguard activity around Taiwan only a day earlier, while Japan separately protested Chinese naval live-fire activity inside its Japan’s claimed exclusive economic zone that week.

The broader significance is the growing normality of such activity. Live-fire exercises, median-line crossings and operations by military and coastguard vessels are increasingly becoming routine features of Beijing’s pressure campaign. Each individual incident may be limited, but their mounting frequency progressively erodes earlier restraints and makes military coercion around Taiwan appear unexceptional.

Early August: Possible Ketagalan Forum

5 August: Han Kuang 42 begins

6-7 August: Urban resilience exercises in Pingtung and Kaohsiung alongside Han Kuang live-fire drills

7-13 August: Regional air-raid drills across Taiwan

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

China launches military drills in Taiwan Strait following high-level US talks
News24
China has launched two days of military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has declined to comment on the timing of the drills, which come just after Mr Yi met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the Philippines. Mr Rubio commented on this: “We are going to have to have a relationship with China, okay? These are the two most powerful economies in the world,” Mr Rubio said. “We want it to be as positive as it possibly can be, but that won’t come at the expense of our allies and our partners in the region.”

• China begins two days of live-fire drills in Taiwan Strait. Reuters

What a helicopter’s flight in the Taiwan Strait says about Beijing’s war plans
South China Morning Post
A People’s Liberation Army helicopter’s unprecedented flight in the Taiwan Strait has raised concerns in Taipei that Beijing is rehearsing a new kind of operation for a potential cross-strait conflict. Taiwan’s defence ministry said it detected four PLA aircraft, including a helicopter and an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), operating around the island on July 20 and the following morning. The helicopter and drone crossed the median line and remained east of it for nearly 9.5 hours in the “R9” area – which Taiwan has designated as restricted – the first publicly reported case of a PLA helicopter lingering there for an extended period.

What do the PLA’s ‘Steel Rain’ shells say about its war plans for Taiwan?
South China Morning Post
The People’s Liberation Army has showcased new airburst munitions that shower targets with metal fragments, with a video offering a glimpse of how its long-range rocket artillery might be used in a Taiwan conflict. Released on 19 July by the PLA-affiliated China Military Bugle social media channel under the title “Steel Rain”, the footage shows several PHL-191-launched rockets detonating above what appears to be a desert training range, showering a wide area with high-speed metal fragments. The video appears intended to highlight an airburst fragmentation warhead designed to attack personnel and lightly protected equipment.

Taiwan condemns China after another research vessel enters its EEZ
Focus Taiwan
Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration (CGA) on 23 July condemned China and accused it of violating the country’s sovereignty after a Chinese research vessel completed its latest fisheries resources survey in Taiwan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) over the past week. China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced early 23 July that the survey, conducted from 17-23 July, was carried out by the Lanhai 201 research vessel operated by the East China Sea Fisheries Research Institute under the Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences. The weeklong survey in waters east of Taiwan successfully collected “biological and environmental data to support the conservation and sustainable management of fisheries in the region,” the ministry said.

Testing Taiwan’s coastal defence capabilities

Taiwan tests how it would resist a Chinese siege at sea
The New York Times
As armed Chinese ships expand patrols around Taiwan, officials in Taipei are more urgently testing how they would keep fuel and other vital supplies flowing if Beijing tried to choke off the island. China, which claims Taiwan as its territory, has in recent years rehearsed a blockade, using naval ships and military planes to practice sealing off access to Taiwan. Taiwan relies on imports of fossil fuels for about 95 percent of its energy, and natural gas fuels half of its power generation. And the global shocks caused by the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran have highlighted the importance of securing energy supplies. Officials in Taiwan are exploring whether floating gas storage and processing terminals, emergency stockpiles, or even reviving nuclear power could help keep the island running in a crisis.

• China intensifies activity around Taiwan: CGA. Taipei Times

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

No incidents to report this week.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Enriching exchanges through the camera lens: Cross-Strait stories from those born in the 1970s to the 1990s [以镜头丰富交流：“70后”到“90后”的跨海讲述]
Xinhua
The guests spoke at length about the inseparable historical and cultural connections between the two sides of the Strait, expressing hopes for deeper exchanges and the joint preservation and promotion of Chinese culture. In response to what the article describes as the DPP authorities’ vigorous promotion of “de-Sinicisation” in Taiwan, Feng and others with extensive experience in offline cultural exchanges are transforming the relationships and knowledge they have accumulated over many years into online content, in the hope of influencing more people. In recent years, a growing number of young content creators have also adopted more accessible and lively forms of expression, using the vast online space to help more Taiwanese people understand what they describe as the real mainland China.

Falsely portraying Taiwan as the aggressor or obstacle to peace

Taiwan Affairs Office: Lai Ching-te has become a “scourge of Taiwan”, while the DPP has become the largest “group harming Taiwan” [国台办：赖清德已成“台湾之害” ，民进党已成最大“祸台团体”]
Xinhua
Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Zhang Han said at a regular press conference on 22 July that Lai Ching-te had recently made outrageous and shameless remarks at the Democratic Progressive Party’s national congress. His speech, she said, was filled throughout with hostility and confrontation, lies and falsehoods, paranoia and arrogance. It once again exposed his stubborn commitment to “Taiwan independence”, his radical and reckless provocations, and his determination to harm and destroy Taiwan.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Taiwan Affairs Office: By going against the tide of history, the DPP authorities will only encounter setbacks wherever they turn in the international community [国台办：民进党当局逆历史潮流，只会在国际社会四处碰壁].
Xinhua
In response to the Papua New Guinea government’s recent announcement that it would close the “Taipei Economic Office in Papua New Guinea”, Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Zhang Han said at a regular press conference on 22 July: “We highly commend the Papua New Guinea government’s decision. Facts have repeatedly demonstrated that the one-China principle is a basic norm governing international relations and a universal consensus of the international community. Upholding the one-China principle is the righteous course and accords with the prevailing trend. A just cause attracts abundant support, while an unjust one finds little. By stubbornly maintaining its separatist position on ‘Taiwan independence’ and going against the tide of history, the DPP authorities will only encounter setbacks wherever they turn in the international community.”

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

Taiwan residents rally against DPP food safety failures, urging livelihood protection
Xinhua
A large-scale rally was held in Taipei on 25 July to protest the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities’ failure to safeguard food safety and disregard for people’s livelihoods. Tens of thousands of Taiwan residents braved the sweltering heat and took to Ketagalan Boulevard in front of the island’s leadership office. A major food safety scandal recently surfaced in Taiwan, where soybean salad oil was found to contain excessive levels of carcinogens, triggering grave concerns and panic on the island. Nearly a month has passed since the tainted oil scandal broke out. However, the DPP authorities have dragged their feet on responses, shirked accountability and attempted to withhold information.

• ‘I am human, I oppose poisoning Taiwan’ – the source of ‘poisoning Taiwan’ is ‘Taiwan independence’: Hai Feng. Global Times

Cyber attacks on Taiwan’s critical infrastructure

Taiwan opens satellite internet market to counter China-related disruptions
Taiwan News
Taiwan has eased foreign ownership rules for satellite internet companies as it seeks stronger backup communications during disasters and possible security crises, Nikkei Asia reported 24 July. CNA reported that lawmakers approved legal changes 21 July that could allow foreign companies such as Spacex’s Starlink to provide satellite internet services in Taiwan. Starlink uses thousands of low-Earth orbit satellites to connect places without reliable mobile or cable networks.

Challenging other countries’ One-China policies

Chinese diplomats leave Labor conference in Adelaide after requesting Taiwan representatives be ejected
ABC News
Chinese diplomats left Labor’s national conference after complaining to ALP National Secretary Paul Erickson about the presence of Taiwanese officials at the high-profile political gathering in Adelaide. Three Chinese diplomats observing the conference confronted Mr Erickson on Thursday morning to demand that two representatives from Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Canberra — the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Australia — be ejected from the venue … The ALP has confirmed that Mr Erickson then made it clear that the TECO representatives were entitled to attend as observers, and would be allowed to remain.

• Labor rejects China’s demand to eject Taiwanese official from conference. The Australian

• Australia: Chinese exit over Taiwan. Taipei Times

• Taiwan personnel’s attempts to seek spotlight at various events and engage in separatist acts are doomed to fail: FM spokesperson. Global Times

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

China hits back at Japan over Taiwan question and South China Sea issue at ASEAN meeting, urges outsiders to stop stirring tension
Global Times
China’s delegation strongly rebutted Japan’s remarks on the Taiwan question, the South China Sea and the so-called “China threat” narrative during ASEAN-related foreign ministers’ meetings held in Manila, stressing that the Taiwan question is an internal Chinese affair and urging external forces to stop provoking tensions in the region … On the Taiwan question, the Chinese side pointed out that Taiwan question is an internal affair of China. China will never allow “Taiwan independence” separatist forces to split Taiwan island from China under any name or in any form. The clearer the international community’s opposition to “Taiwan independence” separatist activities and the firmer its commitment to the one-China principle, the better safeguarded peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits will be.

Using citizenship laws to undermine Taiwan

Chinese Consulate-General in Irkutsk assists injured Taiwanese; Taiwan Affairs Office: “It is our duty” [驻伊尔库茨克总领馆协助受伤台胞 国台办：职责所在]
Xinhua
A Taiwanese tour group was recently involved in a traffic accident near Russia’s Irkutsk region. Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Zhang Han told a regular press conference on 22 July that, after receiving a late-night request for assistance from the Taiwanese travellers, the Chinese Consulate-General in Irkutsk immediately coordinated with a local hospital to dispatch ambulances. Consular officials also visited and expressed concern for the more seriously injured Taiwanese travellers. Their conditions are currently stable. “Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are all Chinese. It is our duty to provide consular protection and assistance overseas to Chinese citizens, including Taiwan compatriots,” Zhang said. “Wherever our compatriots have expectations and requests, the care and protection of the motherland will be there. We will continue to shelter our compatriots from difficulties and help resolve their problems, ensuring that every Chinese person can feel the warmth and strength of the motherland.”

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 14 July 2026 to 21 July 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

Papua New Guinea announced on 15 July that it will close Taiwan’s representative office in the capital city Port Moresby. The decision represents more than a bilateral dispute over diplomatic protocol. It is part of Beijing’s intensifying effort to make even unofficial engagement with Taiwan more difficult.

PNG foreign minister Justin Tkatchenko said the office would cease operations immediately and that the presence of ‘Chinese Taipei’ was no longer recognised or required. He presented the closure as an administrative action reaffirming PNG’s one-China policy and building trust with Beijing. China praised the decision. Taiwan, which says it was not consulted, rejected the order and said its office would continue operating while it sought talks.

The office had operated since 1990 and was consistent with PNG’s longstanding one-China policy. Australia, New Zealand and most countries that recognise Beijing similarly maintain unofficial ties with Taiwan. Closure was not required by that policy. It instead aligns PNG with Beijing’s much narrower one-China principle, under which Taiwan should have almost no international presence.

In 2026, Beijing has expanded its pressure campaign against Taiwan beyond denying it diplomatic recognition and formal international participation, to obstructing the unofficial channels connecting it to the world. China has sanctioned New Zealand MPs for visiting Taiwan and pressured governments over conferences, visits, overflights and representative offices. The PNG decision pushes that campaign further into the Pacific.

The closure was abrupt, but it did not come from nowhere. PNG had already closed its own trade office in Taipei in 2023, recalling its diplomatic staff and announcing a smaller business-liaison arrangement based in Port Moresby. In May 2026, Beijing and Port Moresby signed a Framework Agreement on Enhanced Economic Partnership, opening negotiations towards a bilateral trade deal. No public evidence ties the closure to a specific Chinese payment or concession, but the sequence suggests a deliberate effort to deepen economic and political trust with Beijing. Whether through direct pressure or anticipatory accommodation, China secured the outcome it wanted.

But pleasing Beijing may carry costs. China is PNG’s second-largest trading partner after Australia, while Taiwan ranks fifth. Taiwan nevertheless has considerable leverage in a critical sector: it imports about 1.2 million tonnes of PNG’s LNG annually. Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung has said Taipei is reviewing those purchases alongside its broader bilateral cooperation. Governments should remember that even where China is the larger commercial partner, doing Beijing’s bidding against Taiwan can leave them exposed to targeted economic countermeasures from Taipei.

South Africa received that warning in 2025 after attempting to downgrade Taiwan’s representative office and force it from Pretoria to Johannesburg. Taipei responded by announcing prior-approval requirements covering 47 categories of exports, including semiconductors. It suspended the measures before they took effect after Pretoria requested talks. No settlement has been publicly announced: Taiwan’s office remains open and operating in Pretoria, although South Africa continues to classify it unilaterally as a commercial office. The resulting stand-off, and Pretoria’s rapid request for negotiations, demonstrated the leverage created by Taiwan’s position in critical supply chains. PNG is more directly exposed through LNG.

For Taiwan, responding in this manner carries risks. Economic retaliation could damage its reputation as a reliable partner and reinforce Beijing’s coercive model. Yet absorbing each diplomatic setback without consequence would encourage other governments to conclude that accommodating China is cost-free.

For Beijing, the closure is therefore both a victory and a test. It will watch whether Taiwan and its partners impose costs or allow the issue to pass as administrative housekeeping. A muted response will encourage similar demands elsewhere.

For the Pacific, the precedent should be uncomfortable. Pacific governments have the sovereign right to determine their relationships, but sovereignty also means resisting attempts by larger powers to dictate whom they may engage. Australia should treat the closure as a question of regional order. If democracies want deterrence to remain credible in a future Taiwan Strait crisis, they must defend routine engagement with Taiwan.

For more on Beijing’s intensified efforts in 2026 to constrain Taiwan’s international engagement, see ‘Beijing is testing who will stand by Taiwan’ in The Strategist here.

Early August: Possible Ketagalan Forum

5 August: Han Kuang No. 42 begins

6-7 August: Urban resilience exercises in Pingtung and Kaohsiung alongside Han Kuang live-fire drills

7-13 August: Regional air-raid drills across Taiwan

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

Economic boycott campaigns

US senator warns about economic blockade
Taipei Times
US Senator Tammy Duckworth has said that China could be more likely to impose an economic blockade on Taiwan than launch a full-scale military invasion in 2028, adding that such a move could be carried out under the guise of maritime safety. Speaking at a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) event in Washington on 16 July, Duckworth responded to comments by former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, who said Chinese President Xi Jinping could seek to exploit simultaneous US and Taiwanese presidential elections in 2028 to attack Taiwan. Duckworth, who serves on the US Senate Foreign Relations and Armed Services committees, said she believed Beijing would be more likely to pursue an economic blockade.

• Duckworth warns China may opt for economic blockade of Taiwan in 2028. Focus Taiwan

• Former Intel CEO warns Taiwan blockade could devastate world economy. Taiwan Times

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Beijing is trying to turn Taiwan’s sea goddess into a Chinese agent
Foreign Policy
Mazu is worshipped on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, although for decades in China, that worship—like other forms of religion—was repressed under Maoism. In the modern People’s Republic of China, the state has increasingly sought to harness her following for explicitly political ends, framing the religious practice as evidence that Taiwan and China are “one family,” bound by shared ancestors and a shared fate. At the center of that effort is Meizhou Island in Fujian. It is home to the Meizhou Mazu Temple, which Chinese officials and state media promote as the original birthplace of Lin Mo-Niang, the woman who would later become Mazu, and the ancestral temple for Mazu worship throughout the region.

AI from both sides of the Taiwan Strait shares the stage, opening a new chapter in technological and innovation integration [两岸AI同台，科创融合启新程]
Xinhua
With support from the Cross-Strait Economic and Technological Cooperation Centre, Taiwanese companies have once again participated in WAIC this year as a group. The Cross-Strait Artificial Intelligence Integration and Innovation Exhibition Zone brings together more than 20 Taiwanese AI-related companies, including Foxconn Industrial Internet, MediaTek and ASE Technology, showcasing cutting-edge achievements in fields such as AI chips, servers and smart fitness … As the organiser of WAIC’s cross-Strait activities, the Economic and Technological Cooperation Centre focuses on facilitating economic and technological cooperation and cultural exchanges across the Strait. It also seeks to guide Taiwanese people and companies in integrating into China’s “new development pattern” and participating in what Beijing calls “high-quality development”.

Young people collaborate across the Taiwan Strait [一场跨越海峡的青春共创]
Xinhua
From 14 to 20 July, the “Together Towards the Future” 2026 Cross-Strait Summer Camp for Journalism Students was held in Henan. Sixty-eight students from three Taiwanese universities and eight mainland Chinese universities ate, lived and travelled together, gaining experience in producing micro-dramas and exploring Henan’s rich history and culture. Focusing on the emerging field of AIGC—artificial intelligence-generated content—for film and television, the summer camp invited several industry experts to give lectures on its opening day. They provided specialist knowledge and shared practical experience on subjects including how AI can empower the film and television industry and the process of creating AIGC micro-dramas. That afternoon, the students were divided into four groups led by four directors and applied what they had learnt to scriptwriting.

On July 14, university students from both sides of the Taiwan Strait listened to lectures by industry experts. (Photo by Ren Zhuoru, Xinhua News Agency)

CCP influence in Taiwan’s domestic politics

Taiwan’s opposition TPP launches historic first trip to mainland China
The Star
The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) has sent its first formal delegation to mainland China since the party’s founding, seeking to maintain cross-strait peace through dialogue amid heightened tensions with Beijing. The nine-member delegation from the island’s smaller opposition party left for Shanghai on Tuesday for a four-day visit focused on youth exchanges, urban governance, artificial intelligence (AI), technological innovation and entrepreneurship. “The trip aims to build goodwill and mutual trust through pragmatic engagement, reduce misunderstandings across the Taiwan Strait and explore a more stable and sustainable model for exchanges,” the TPP said.

• Song Tao meets with a delegation led by Hung Hsiu-chu [宋涛会见洪秀柱一行]. Xinhua

China aims to derail Taiwan’s drone efforts, source says
Taipei Times
China is orchestrating a campaign to derail Taiwan’s efforts to develop military drones through politicians in opposition parties, a source with knowledge of cross-strait affairs said yesterday, claims that the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) called “false and malicious.” Speaking on condition of anonymity, the source told the Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ Chinese-language sister paper) that Chinese officials and their intermediaries in May and last month gave detailed instructions to opposition politicians to derail Taiwan’s efforts to develop uncrewed systems.

Promoting the term “Green Terror 绿色恐怖”

ASPI Comment: Beijing is increasingly employing the derogatory term “Green Terror 绿色恐怖” to criticise the administration and policies of Taiwan's pan-Green coalition, led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which currently holds Taiwan’s presidency. While the DPP's official colour is green, Beijing's deliberate use of “terror 恐怖” invokes a provocative comparison with Taiwan's historical “White Terror 白色恐怖,” a period of oppressive martial law imposed by the Kuomintang from 1949 to 1987.

Taiwanese political parties and civic groups hold forum criticising ‘green terror’ [台湾政党社团举办论坛批评“绿色恐怖”]
Xinhua
Several Taiwanese political parties and civic organisations held a forum in Taipei on 15 July, criticising the Democratic Progressive Party authorities for intensifying what they called “green terror”, promoting “de-Sinicisation” and provoking cross-Strait confrontation. Participants said they were expressing the public’s desire for peace and dialogue across the Taiwan Strait rather than confrontation. The forum was organised by the Taiwan Area Political Victims Mutual Aid Association and co-organised by the Taiwan Social Co-prosperity Coalition, Taiwan Labour Party and Cross-Strait Peace and Development Forum.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

What role should Taiwan play in ensuring AI remains under human control?
Global Times
Taiwan already has a strong foundation in advanced semiconductor manufacturing, electronic and information hardware, engineering talent, and precision industrial systems. If these capabilities are tied down by the logic of technological blockades from a single camp, the Taiwan region will ultimately become nothing more than a “blood-transfusion island” that has been politically drained. However, if these capabilities are reintegrated into the broader framework of cross-Straits integration and the overall technological leap forward of the Chinese nation, Taiwan has the opportunity to become a key link in smart manufacturing, advanced computing infrastructure, the implementation of end-user applications, and regulatory coordination.

Students from China’s Taiwan get hands-on with tech in Greater Bay Area
CGTN
Lu Bingrui is one of more than 130 university students from China’s Taiwan participating in this year’s Guangzhou Taiwan Youth Month internship program. Launched by the city as a flagship platform for cross-Strait youth exchanges, the program has placed them at over 50 companies and institutions across sectors including artificial intelligence, robotics, finance, healthcare and advanced manufacturing … "We hope these students can gain a firsthand understanding of Chinese mainland's advances in energy technology," said Liu Yao, deputy general manager of Zhuhai Hengqin Power Supply Bureau under China Southern Power Grid. "We also hope they can serve as a bridge for future cross-Strait exchanges in science and technology."

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

Taiwan’s ‘toxic oil’ food-safety scandal continues to escalate, fuelling public anger over the authorities’ failure to govern [台“毒油”食安事件延烧 当局施政失能引众怒]
Xinhua
Amid mounting pressure from across society for the DPP authorities to apologise and hold officials accountable for their mishandling of the situation, Premier Cho Jung-tai offered only a perfunctory “I am sorry” to the media more than half a month after the “toxic oil” problem emerged. So far, however, no official has resigned to take responsibility … On 17 July, the Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party called on the public to attend a rally on Ketagalan Boulevard, outside the office of Taiwan’s leader, on 25 July. They demanded that the DPP authorities apologise and hold officials accountable. Several county and city mayors across Taiwan also called on the public to join the rally and express their anger and dissatisfaction with the authorities.

No incidents to report this week.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

PNG ousts Taiwanese officials, seeks to ‘reassure’ China after Australian treaty
ABC News
Papua New Guinea will close Taiwan’s trade mission in its capital Port Moresby, freezing out its fifth largest trading partner in a major strategic move designed to reaffirm ties with China. In a statement on 16 July, Papua New Guinea’s Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko said Taiwan’s presence was “no longer recognised or required” in the country. He said it marked a “vital” step towards deepening trust with Beijing and reiterated his country’s commitment to the One China policy.

• China highly appreciates Papua New Guinea’s decision to close the “Taipei Economic Office in Papua New Guinea” [中方高度赞赏巴新决定关闭“驻巴新台北经济办事处”]. Xinhua

• Taipei reassesses ties with PNG after office closure. Taipei Times

• US says it is ‘deeply concerned’ by PNG closure of Taiwan office. Reuters

Taiwan strips Cambodia of visa privileges over One-China stance
Khmer Times
Cambodia has been removed from Taiwan’s visa exemption programme, a move an expert views as retaliation against the Kingdom’s endorsement of the One-China policy. In a 17 July statement, the Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Cambodia will be removed from both the Guanhong Project, which simplifies visa procedures for tour groups, and the Travel Authorisation Certificate programme, which provides conditional visa-free entry for travellers … The ministry accused Cambodia of echoing Beijing’s statements that undermine sovereignty and of appearing to support China’s potential use of force to achieve unification. It cited public concerns over Cambodia’s alleged connections to cross-border fraud cases as another factor behind the policy change.

• Taiwan drops Cambodia from visa facilitation programs, extends others. Focus Taiwan

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

US, Taiwan region reportedly advance drone cooperation; expert says military impact limited, island residents bear cost
Global Times
Song Zhongping, a mainland military affairs expert, told the Global Times on Thursday that the Taiwan region lacks strategic depth, making infrastructure associated with the “node strategy,” including drone bases, command centers and data centers, easy targets for strikes and electronic disruption … Song noted that the entire Taiwan region is within the PLA’s full-range strike coverage. It is therefore unrealistic for the Taiwan regional authorities to develop an “asymmetric warfare capability” by cooperating with the US in fields such as drone technologies, he said, adding that their only way forward is to abandon attempts to seek “Taiwan independence.”

• Taiwan hopes to fend off China’s threats with a ‘hornet’s nest’ of homegrown drones. NBC News

Detention of Taiwanese nationals in China

Rise in number of Taiwanese going missing or being detained in China sparks concern in Taiwan
The Strait Times
The number of Taiwanese people reported missing, detained for questioning, or having their personal freedom restricted in China has reached 385 since 2024, said Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) on 9 July, as it reiterated its appeal for travellers to assess the potential safety risks when travelling across the strait. The council began highlighting these data points regularly in 2024 after it said that China has stopped proactively notifying Taipei about such cases, unlike in the past. Instead, the council learns of the incidents only after being informed by the relatives of those affected. Alarmingly, the number of such reported cases has surged over time, with cases quadrupling from 55 in 2024 to 221 in 2025. In the first half of 2026, 109 cases were recorded.

Taiwanese police officers questioned while travelling in mainland China; MAC says interrogation lasted six hours [台員警赴陸旅遊被查　陸委會：訊問長達6小時]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
A serving Taiwanese police officer and a retired officer were questioned by Chinese Communist Party state-security personnel while travelling in Fujian, mainland China, in June. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) provided further details of the case today, saying the two men were taken to a separate location, isolated and interrogated for as long as six hours .. The two individuals were a serving traffic-police squad leader and a retired officer from the Second Special Police Corps. They checked into a guesthouse in Quanzhou, Fujian, at 11.05 am on 24 June and were immediately taken by approximately six or seven CCP state-security personnel to another location, where they were isolated and interrogated.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 7 July 2026 to 14 July 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

China is pressuring the Australian government to reject Taiwan’s proposal to establish a representative office in Perth, turning an otherwise routine expansion of consular and commercial engagement into a test of Canberra’s willingness to resist diplomatic coercion.

Taiwan reportedly submitted a proposal earlier this year to open a Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Western Australia. It would supplement Taiwan’s main Australian office in Canberra and existing branches in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. Beijing subsequently lodged a formal protest and warned Australia that Taiwan was the most sensitive issue in the bilateral relationship. The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has declined to say whether the proposal will be approved.

Taiwan’s representative offices are technically unofficial but still perform many of the practical functions of diplomatic missions. A Perth office would provide services to Taiwanese residents, businesses, students and travellers while strengthening Taiwan’s engagement with the Western Australian government and local industries. Australia likewise maintains an unofficial representative office in Taipei that performs many of the functions of an embassy.

There is a particularly strong economic rationale, as Western Australia is a major supplier of energy and critical minerals, while Taiwan occupies a central position in the global semiconductor and advanced-technology supply chains that require these resources. Greater engagement between Taiwan and Western Australia could facilitate cooperation involving liquefied natural gas, critical minerals, advanced manufacturing and supply-chain resilience. Australia already describes its relationship with Taiwan as substantial, spanning trade, investment, education, tourism and people-to-people links.

Opening an office would not alter Australia’s diplomatic recognition of the People’s Republic of China or constitute recognition of Taiwan as a state. Australia’s one-China policy permits extensive unofficial relations with Taiwan, as demonstrated by the representative offices that both sides already operate. The decision is therefore not primarily about diplomatic recognition. It is about whether Australia is permitted to determine the scope of its unofficial relationship with Taiwan according to its own national interests.

Beijing’s objection reflects its broader effort to restrict Taiwan’s international presence. China increasingly seeks to influence not only formal questions of diplomatic recognition but also lower-level political, commercial and cultural engagement. Parliamentary visits, participation in international organisations, the display of Taiwanese symbols and even the terminology used to describe Taiwan have all become targets of pressure.

The Perth proposal demonstrates how this coercion often operates pre-emptively. Beijing does not need to impose economic sanctions or announce punitive measures if Australian officials conclude in advance that expanding ties with Taiwan is not worth the potential diplomatic cost. The threat of retaliation can itself narrow the boundaries of acceptable engagement and is itself a form of coercion.

That makes Canberra’s eventual decision important beyond Western Australia. Rejecting the proposal primarily because China objected would effectively grant Beijing an informal veto over Australia’s Taiwan policy. It would also signal that China can constrain Taiwan’s international space through diplomatic pressure directed at third countries.

Approving the office would be a modest but meaningful assertion that Australia’s one-China policy is determined by Canberra, not Beijing.

For more on Beijing’s intensified efforts in 2026 to constrain Taiwan’s international engagement, see ‘Beijing is testing who will stand by Taiwan’ in The Strategist here.

13-19 July: Joint defence exercise

Taiwan’s military begins a week-long joint defence exercise on 13 July, intended as the immediate precursor to this year’s Han Kuang exercises. It should provide early indications of the scenarios, force movements and mobilisation procedures that will feature in August.

Early August: Possible Ketagalan Forum

Taiwan’s annual Ketagalan Forum: Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue has traditionally been held in early August. The 2025 forum focused on regional security, whole-of-society defence and economic resilience. I have not found a confirmed public date for the 2026 edition, so this remains one to monitor rather than a confirmed event.

5 August: Han Kuang No. 42 begins

Taiwan’s principal annual military exercise is scheduled to begin on 5 August. This will be the major event of the month. It will reportedly integrate military operations with reserve mobilisation, civil defence and whole-of-society resilience measures. Particular issues to watch include responses to a blockade or quarantine, distributed command, protection of critical infrastructure and the use of civilian facilities.

6-7 August: Urban resilience exercises in Pingtung and Kaohsiung alongside Han Kuang live-fire drills

7-13 August: Regional air-raid drills across Taiwan

Testing Taiwan’s coastal defence capabilities

Chinese research vessels serve military purposes: Coast Guard captain
Focus Taiwan
China’s deployment of scientific research and survey vessels in waters east of Taiwan and beyond carries a military motive — to prepare for denying foreign naval vessels access to strategically important waters, a Taiwanese coast guard captain said 8 July. Speaking at the Taiwan International Ocean Forum, Arthur Yang, captain of the Coast Guard Administration’s (CGA) Sixth Offshore Flotilla, said research vessels are one of China’s tools for harassing Taiwan, alongside coast guard and flag-of-convenience ships.

Maritime pressure expands to Pratas and Taiping
The Jamestown Foundation
Beijing is expanding its “Kinmen model” of gray-zone maritime pressure to other Taiwan-controlled offshore islands and maritime positions. For over two years, it has used political or maritime triggers to challenge Taiwan-administered boundaries, deploy the China Coast Guard (CCG), and normalize its law-enforcement presence in waters under Taiwan’s effective control, but that Beijing claims as its own jurisdiction. Activity in June and July has involved a combination of CCG vessels, maritime safety ships, research vessels, rescue assets, and Sansha-linked public vessels. These vessels have operated across waters east of Taiwan, Pratas Island, and Taiping Island—a multi-axis pattern that suggests a broad campaign focused on Taiwan’s outlying islands.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

No incidents to report this week.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Taiwan Affairs Office: United front work has been conducted for many years and is open and above board [国台办：统战工作行之有年，光明正大]
Xinhua
Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office said the mainland’s Taiwan work had always been guided by the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation and the common interests of compatriots on both sides of the Strait. It had always sought to unite Taiwan compatriots, fully understand their particular historical experiences, take full account of the realities in Taiwan, and give due consideration to the interests and sentiments of all social strata and groups in Taiwan. “We are willing, on the common political foundation of upholding the ‘1992 Consensus’ and opposing ‘Taiwan independence’, to strengthen exchanges and communication with political parties, organisations and people from all sectors in Taiwan,” he said.

Taiwan revives ‘anti-communist’ training for its military graduates after 24 years
South China Morning Post
Taiwan has revived its “anti-communist patriotic education” programme for military academy graduates, reflecting growing concern over Beijing’s efforts to infiltrate the island’s armed forces after a string of espionage cases involving service members. The compulsory five-day course, held from July 1 for graduates of Taiwan’s eight military academies, restores the programme’s original name after a 24-year hiatus. Introduced in 1965, the programme was renamed “patriotic education” in 2002 but has reverted to its original title as the military seeks to strengthen awareness of security threats from Beijing.

Cultural events bring together young people across Taiwan Strait in Chongqing, SW China
Xinhua
A total of 40 kids attending these activities visited Chongqing Natural History Museum on the evening of 10 July. They visited the dinosaur exhibition, learned about paleontology knowledge, played interactive games, built tents together and shared fun stories of their hometowns. The event helped the young people from both sides of the Taiwan Strait know each other better and build closer friendship.

Espionage

Chinese moving to set up ‘legal gray zones,’ expert says
Taipei Times
Taiwan and the US should form an anti-infiltration task force as China shifts influence operations into “legal gray zones,” Hsu Kai-hsieh, a judge in the Taipei District Court’s National Security Division, said on 10 July during a discussion hosted by the Hudson Institute’s China Center in Washington … [Chinese espionage] has moved beyond traditional criminal activities into “legal gray zones,” using channels such as alumni associations and hometown groups to expand their influence, he said. China’s Law on Promoting Ethnic Unity and Progress, which took effect on 1 July, criminalizes acts deemed to undermine “ethnic unity” and extends its jurisdiction to individuals and organizations overseas, effectively allowing Beijing to exert control over Chinese culture and people beyond its borders, Hsu said.

Ex-DPP staffer receives 10 years for developing spy network for China
Focus Taiwan
The Taiwan High Court on 9 July sentenced Huang Chu-jung, a former Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) staffer, to 10 years in prison for developing an organization on behalf of China after recruiting two people to help gather classified information. The court found Huang guilty based on conclusive evidence, though it ruled that one of the recruitment attempts was unsuccessful. The ruling can be appealed. According to prosecutors, Huang, who previously conducted business in China, was recruited by Chinese intelligence agents. After returning to Taiwan, he recruited then-DPP staffer Chiu Shih-yuan in 2017 and attempted to recruit Ho Jen-chieh, a former adviser to then-Foreign Minister Joseph Wu, in 2022.

Bellicose language about Taiwan

Ministry of National Defence: “Taiwan independence” is a dead end; reunification is the right path [国防部：“台独”是绝路 统一是正道]
Xinhua
Chen Xi [spokesperson for the Ministry of National Defence]: Lai Ching-te’s clamouring to “seek independence through military means” and “rely on external forces to seek independence” once again exposes his true nature as a “destroyer of peace” and an “instigator of war”. Regardless of what Lai Ching-te says or does, he cannot alter the balance of military power across the Taiwan Strait, nor can he obstruct the historical trend towards the inevitable reunification of the motherland. “Taiwan independence” is a dead end, while reunification is the right path. We hope that Taiwan compatriots will clearly recognise the extreme danger and harm posed by the Democratic Progressive Party authorities’ stubborn adherence to a separatist “Taiwan independence” path, and join us in resolutely combating “Taiwan independence” separatist forces, opposing interference by external forces, and jointly safeguarding peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Chinese maritime coercion of Japan and Philippines seeks to deter Taiwan
Taiwan News
China has stepped up maritime and military activity in the South China Sea and waters near Taiwan as Beijing seeks to counter growing security cooperation between Japan and the Philippines, two countries that could deter China’s aspirations to take Taipei, per Nikkei Asia. China’s People’s Liberation Army recently deployed bombers, fighter jets, early warning aircraft, and naval vessels for patrols around Scarborough Shoal, a disputed area claimed by the Philippines and China.

Deepening Cross-Strait Integrated Development and Advancing the Great Cause of National Reunification — General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important speech at the ceremony marking the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China points the way forward for the development of cross-Strait relations [深化两岸融合发展 推进祖国统一大业——习近平总书记在庆祝中国共产党成立105周年大会上的重要讲话为两岸关系发展指明方向 新华社北京7月6日电 题：深化两岸融合发展 推进祖国统一大业——习近平总书记在庆祝中国共产党成立105周年大会上的重要讲话为两岸关系发展指明方向]
Xinhua
General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important speech at the ceremony marking the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China attracted considerable attention in Taiwan and prompted an enthusiastic response among Taiwan compatriots. Taiwan compatriots, experts and scholars interviewed said that General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important speech was grounded in the overall strategic objective of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. It demonstrated sincerity and goodwill in uniting Taiwan compatriots and deepening cross-Strait exchanges, cooperation and integrated development, while underscoring the firm resolve to advance the great cause of national reunification. It further pointed the way forward for the development of cross-Strait relations.

No incidents to report this week.

Challenging other countries’ One-China policies

WA stays quiet on growing diplomatic spat over proposed Taiwan office in Perth
The West Australian
Western Australia is refusing to say if it backs Taiwan’s push to establish a new office in Perth as the Albanese Government appears ready to approve the proposal, despite a growing diplomatic backlash from China. A report in The West Australian last week revealing that the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade in Canberra was considering the request for an additional, but unofficial consular presence, has also prompted sharp criticism of Beijing’s actions. “The People’s Republic of China has no right to comment on Taiwan’s interactions with other countries,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) in Taiwan said following the West’s report.

• Chinese Perth control: Beijing urges Australia to block establishment of an unofficial Taiwan consulate in WA. The West Australian

U.S. dismisses China’s criticism of AIT director as ‘baseless’
Focus Taiwan
The U.S. State Department on 9 July dismissed China’s criticism of American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Director Raymond Greene as “baseless,” saying he “fully represents the U.S. government’s position.” The response came after China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) criticized Greene over remarks he made at a drone industry forum in Taichung on 2 July. At the event, Greene said Taiwan should build a “hornet’s nest” of drones to strengthen deterrence and that the United States was prepared to help make that vision a reality.

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

Philippines rejects Chinese scholars’ claim over its island province near Taiwan
Reuters
The defence minister of the Philippines on Thursday rejected as “baseless” and “ludicrous” assertions by Chinese scholars that its northernmost island-chain province belongs to Beijing, calling the claim concerning and worthy of challenge. Chinese state-run news site GDToday reported on ‌2 July that scholars from institutions including Nanjing University argued at a 30 June symposium that Batanes was a natural extension of Taiwan and therefore belonged to China.

Joseph Wu warns of Chinese expansion at Taiwan International Ocean Forum
Taiwan News
National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu warned 8 July that China’s long-term strategy of “gradual expansion” is altering the status quo across the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea. Speaking at the Taiwan International Ocean Forum, Wu said China’s large-scale military exercises and gray-zone harassment tactics are aimed at turning the First Island Chain into a single, interconnected theater of conflict. He said only through stronger unity among democratic nations can China’s expansion be effectively deterred, according to UDN.

Prosecuting Taiwanese “separatists”

Taiwan warns travelers as China surveillance widens
Taipei Times
Beijing carries out comprehensive and systematic surveillance of visitors and residents within its borders, and Taiwanese traveling to China should pay close attention to their personal safety following China’s implementation of the Ethnic Unity and Progress Promotion Law, National Security Bureau (NSB) Director-General Tsai Ming-yen said 6 July. Speaking at a meeting of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, Tsai said the law, which took effect on Wednesday last week, gives Chinese authorities broad discretion because of its vague definition of acts that “undermine ethnic unity.”

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 23 June 2026 to 30 June 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

From 22-26 June, Taiwan conducted a five-day exercise designed to test how quickly its armed forces and civilian agencies could respond if routine Chinese military coercion suddenly escalated into a blockade or attack. The exercise reflected a growing concern in Taipei: that a future crisis may not begin with an obvious invasion, but with a Chinese coastguard or military operation that rapidly turns into a quarantine, blockade or wider conflict.

The exercise culminated on 25 June in a tabletop simulation of a Chinese coastguard-led maritime blockade, including a scenario in which Beijing required commercial vessels travelling to Taiwan to seek Chinese approval and submit to inspection or seizure.

Taiwan’s drills followed a recent Chinese coastguard operation east of Taiwan, which fell short of simulating a blockade but required similar naval capabilities. From 6-10 June, China deployed coastguard vessels east of Taiwan for what Beijing called a “special maritime traffic law-enforcement operation”. Chinese ships questioned passing commercial vessels, asserted jurisdiction over the waters and claimed to have inspected almost 200 ships. Taiwan said at least three merchant vessels were harassed and instructed them to ignore Chinese demands. The operation highlighted Beijing’s use of law-enforcement activity to assert control over surrounding waters and drew public statements of concern from the United States and several European governments.

Beijing is seeking to normalise its authority around Taiwan, creating a maritime status quo from which it could more rapidly implement a quarantine or blockade. By using the coastguard rather than the navy, Beijing can portray coercive activity as domestic law enforcement and blur the point at which other governments should respond. It can test whether commercial vessels comply, collect operational information and assert the claim that China has the right to regulate shipping approaching Taiwan. Such operations may also rehearse elements of a future quarantine while keeping escalation below the threshold of conventional military conflict.

Taiwanese officials described China’s operation as a provocation and a form of cognitive warfare. Taiwan’s exercises reflected Defence Minister Wellington Koo’s warning on 24 June that Taiwan’s warning time is shrinking and that a Chinese patrol or military exercise could become a genuine blockade or attack with little notice.

In its 22-26 June exercise, Taiwan was not only rehearsing a response to a hypothetical military crisis in the strait; it was preparing for a more ambiguous scenario in which Beijing uses coastguard, naval and legal pressure to create facts at sea before Taipei or its partners have time to react. The drills suggest Taiwan is increasingly focused on the speed of escalation, not just the scale of a future Chinese attack.

6-7 August: Urban resilience exercises in Pingtung and Kaohsiung alongside Han Kuang live-fire drills

7-13 August: Regional air-raid drills across Taiwan

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

Taiwan drill simulates maritime ‘quarantine’ by Chinese forces
Taipei Times
Taiwan has held tabletop military exercises to simulate its response to a potential maritime quarantine by China, National Security Council Deputy Secretary-General Lii Wen said at a briefing 25 June. The exercise simulated a scenario in which China, without imposing a full blockade, demands that domestic and foreign vessels using Taiwanese ports complete declarations through its customs system. The drills also envisaged China inspecting or detaining vessels under the guise of law enforcement, disrupting Taiwan’s maritime transport, he said. The disclosure comes the same week that Taiwan holds an island-wide “Immediate Combat Readiness Exercise” to prepare for any full-scale attack by China, underscoring how officials are having to consider multiple potential scenarios for conflict with the country.

• Lai reiterates self-defense resolve, says China altering regional status quo. Focus Taiwan

• ‘Salami slicing’: How China is trying to increase control in the Pacific. CNN

• China angered, Taiwan cheered by Western allies’ alarm over Chinese Coast Guard activities. Reuters

• Former Pentagon official urges monitoring of China activity east of Taiwan. Taiwan News

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

No incidents to report this week.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Guangdong Party chief invites Taiwan to seize opportunities
China Daily
he rapid growth of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area provides fertile ground and vast space for deepening exchanges and cooperation between Guangdong province and Taiwan, according to Huang Kunming, the provincial Party chief. “The development of the Greater Bay Area has gained momentum and is progressing well, accumulating strong potential energy and possessing robust strength,” he said during a meeting with business representatives from Taiwan in Guangzhou on 24 June … “We hope that Taiwan compatriots and enterprises seize the rare historical opportunity to deeply participate in the construction of the Greater Bay Area,” he said.

Why a speech by Pursuit Of Jade’s Zhang Linghe has divided Taiwan
The Strait Times
For Chinese actor Zhang Linghe, all it took was a greeting of “tak ke ho” – “hello” in the Taiwanese Minnan dialect – to spark rapturous applause from an audience that included many Taiwanese. But his speech that followed, which saw the 28-year-old heart-throb calling for deeper cross-strait cultural and people-to-people exchanges, drew mixed reviews. Fans were delighted to see his surprise appearance at the 18th Straits Forum in the Chinese city of Xiamen on June 13, but there was also scrutiny from Taiwanese critics and officials who labelled the move as political propaganda.

Sixth Cross-Strait Zhongshan Forum opens in Zhongshan, Guangdong [第六届海峡两岸中山论坛在广东中山开幕]
Xinhua
The sixth Cross-Strait Zhongshan Forum opened on 28 June in Zhongshan, Guangdong province, with around 2,000 participants from various sectors across the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, Hong Kong and Macau … In his remarks, Pan Xianzhang [deputy director of the CCP Central Committee Taiwan Work Office and the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office] said that Sun Yat-sen was a great national hero, a great patriot and a great pioneer of China’s democratic revolution. He said compatriots on both sides of the Strait should draw wisdom and strength from Sun’s struggles, shoulder their historical mission, advance together with courage and determination, and strive to realise the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

Espionage

3 ex-DPP staffers’ China spying sentences reduced, 1 acquitted
Focus Taiwan
The Taiwan High Court on 25 June reduced the prison sentences of three former Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) staffers convicted of passing classified information to Chinese intelligence agents and acquitted a fourth, overturning a lower court ruling issued last year. The High Court sentenced Huang Chu-jung to six years in prison for violating the Classified National Security Information Protection Act and money laundering, reducing the Taipei District Court’s sentence of 10 years.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Taiwan Affairs Office: after peaceful reunification, Taiwan compatriots will share in the country’s dignity and glory [国台办：和平统一后，台湾同胞将共享国家尊严和荣耀]
Xinhua
Zhang Han, spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, said at a regular press conference on 24 June that after peaceful reunification across the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan compatriots, backed by a strong motherland, would share with mainland compatriots in the dignity and glory of a great country. She said they would have greater standing and confidence internationally, be safer and enjoy greater dignity, and have unprecedented development opportunities. Taiwan’s channels for external exchanges would be comprehensively broadened, and Taiwan compatriots would participate in international affairs as “masters of their own house”. Taiwanese businesspeople and Taiwan-funded enterprises would be deeply integrated into global supply chains and industrial chains, with greater room for development and stronger competitiveness in global markets. Taiwan compatriots overseas would be able to receive support and assistance from the motherland more conveniently and smoothly.

No incidents to report this week.

Outreach to Taiwan’s last 12 diplomatic allies

China commends Honduras for rejecting Taiwan’s false claims, reaffirming one-China principle as international consensus: FM
Global Times
When asked to comment on recent claims by the head of Taiwan’s regional foreign affairs department that the Taiwan authorities are conducting dialogues and consultations with politicians and social groups in Honduras on the so-called restoration of diplomatic ties, as well as a recent social media statement by the Honduran Ministry of Foreign Affairs clarifying that Honduras has had no official dialogue or contacts with the Taiwan authorities and its foreign affairs body will implement national foreign policies in line with existing diplomatic commitments, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said on 25 June that China has noted that the Honduran government has refuted the lies fabricated by the Taiwan authorities. This once again proves that adhering to the one-China principle represents the international consensus, shared aspiration of all peoples and an irresistible historical trend.

• China has taken note of Honduras’ clarification of the lies made by the Taiwan authorities regarding the “re-establishment of diplomatic relations” [中方注意到洪都拉斯对台湾当局“复交”谎言作出澄清]. Xinhua

Challenging other countries’ One-China policies

Trump backs ‘Six Assurances’ to Taiwan but no arms sale timeline, US diplomat says
South China Morning Post
The top US diplomat for East Asia sought to reassure Taiwan that Washington stood by its “Six Assurances” despite US President Donald Trump’s earlier dismissal of the policy, but offered no timeline for approving a stalled US$14 billion arms package to the self-ruled island. Michael DeSombre, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, told a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on Thursday that US policy on Taiwan had not changed, maintaining Washington’s commitment to preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Pressed on Trump’s discussion with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing last month over Taiwan, DeSombre said Beijing was “constantly talking to us about their desire for us not to sell arms to Taiwan”.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Taiwan thanks US for warning to governors
Taipei Times
Taiwan on 25 June thanked Washington for addressing state governors in a letter clarifying the US’ policy on Taiwan that denounced Beijing-directed interference aimed at disrupting state-level ties. The US Department of State, Department of Commerce and Department of Agriculture in a joint letter dated Tuesday last week wrote that the US government regularly receives inquiries from state governments about appropriate conduct regarding outreach to Taiwan. The letter was published by the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) on 24 June

• China always opposes any form of official exchanges between US, Taiwan region, FM says on claims that Chinese embassy dissuades US states, businesses from engaging with island. Global Times

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

Beijing slams US, European concerns over coastguard patrols near Taiwan
South China Morning Post
Beijing on 25 June rejected criticism from the United States and three European nations over its recent coastguard operations east of Taiwan, declaring the patrols were lawful and necessary to safeguard its maritime rights and regional order. The rebuke came a day after the US, Britain, France and Germany expressed concern over the coastguard deployments, saying the activities “threaten regional stability and the freedom of navigation and safety of international shipping”. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun dismissed the accusations, describing Beijing’s actions as a legitimate exercise of jurisdiction.

• Four countries try to team up to back ‘Taiwan independence’? Not a chance: Global Times editorial. Global Times

Prosecuting Taiwanese “separatists”

China’s new ethnic unity law vague: MAC
Focus Taiwan
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said 25 June that China’s new “ethnic unity” law, set to take effect on 1 July, contains vaguely defined provisions, and that Beijing has done little to ease international concerns over its extraterritorial reach. China’s Ethnic Unity and Progress Promotion Law contains “very vague” legal concepts, including “undermining ethnic unity” and acts that are “detrimental to ethnic unity and progress,” MAC deputy head and spokesperson Liang Wen-chieh told a regular news briefing in Taipei. Liang argued that those concepts “all lack clear definitions,” leaving people unable to determine what is safe or risky and therefore likely to self-censor.

Misrepresenting international laws and conventions

Lai says China uses enforcement near Taiwan as pretext for expansion
Taiwan News
President Lai Ching-te accused China on Thursday of using law enforcement activities as a cover for expansion. Speaking at the eighth meeting of the Whole-of-Society Defense Resilience Committee, Lai said China has intensified gray-zone harassment and coercion against neighboring countries in recent years, per CNA. He said the committee earlier conducted a tabletop exercise focused on gray-zone threats and high-intensity maritime coercion.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 16 June 2026 to 23 June 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

On 14 June, Taiwan’s chief intelligence agency launched an online portal inviting people in China to provide intelligence on Chinese political, military, economic and social developments. A website is not, by itself, a major offensive capability, but the initiative suggests Taiwan is seeking relatively low-risk ways to move beyond a primarily defensive posture and impose reciprocal costs on Beijing.

Taiwan’s National Security Bureau said it created the portal after receiving a growing number of approaches from people inside China offering information. The portal opened with a one-minute AI-generated promotional video depicting a Chinese civil servant watching colleagues disappear amid corruption investigations and political repression. Although the website is blocked inside China, it may still be accessible through circumvention tools such as VPNs.

Beijing responded on 17 June by accusing Taiwan of intelligence theft, infiltration and sabotage. The Taiwan Affairs Office promised “resolute countermeasures” and warned that Chinese citizens who supplied information could face criminal prosecution. It did not specify what those countermeasures would involve.

The portal’s immediate intelligence value is uncertain. Public tip lines can generate unreliable material, while Chinese counter-intelligence agencies will probably try to identify users, plant disinformation or compromise the system. Its significance therefore lies less in what it collects immediately than in what it signals about Taiwan’s changing posture.

For Beijing’s coercion campaign, the initiative weakens a longstanding asymmetry. China has traditionally been able to conduct espionage and political warfare against Taiwan while facing fewer comparable risks at home. It has sought to penetrate Taiwanese institutions, recruit military personnel and encourage reporting on alleged “Taiwan independence” activity. Taiwan is now mirroring one element of that approach by publicly soliciting information from inside China and signalling that coercion need not remain one-directional.

Taiwan once maintained more extensive human-intelligence networks inside China, including sources within the People’s Liberation Army. Chinese counter-intelligence operations dismantled several of these networks during the 2000s, making traditional human intelligence considerably riskier. Taiwan has nevertheless retained other means of collecting intelligence, including signals interception, technical collection, cyber capabilities and the cultivation of sources through digital and overseas channels. These methods cannot fully replace well-placed human assets, but they allow Taipei to collect against targets inside China without exposing as many officers or human networks to physical capture.

The portal reflects this evolution. Rather than attempting to rebuild vulnerable physical networks, Taiwan is using digital channels to identify leads and potential sources at lower cost and risk.

For Taiwan, the initiative may also reinforce resilience by showing that Taipei can adapt its intelligence methods and create limited reciprocal pressure despite Beijing’s much greater capabilities. The risk is escalation, particularly through greater Chinese cyberattacks, counter-intelligence operations and pressure against Taiwanese personnel. But the portal matters less as an immediate intelligence breakthrough than as evidence that Taipei is becoming more willing to contest Beijing’s initiative in domains where China has traditionally held the advantage.

22-26 June: Taiwan to stage five days of combat readiness drills

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

China planning more surveys east of Taiwan as it expands maritime claims, state media report
The Independent
China will routinely carry out maritime surveys in the waters east of Taiwan in a bid to diversify claims to the international waters, the Chinese ministry of natural resources said, state media has reported. The surveys will be carried out by mainland China as it looks to expand its control over the waters through several methods, including military drills, coastguard patrols and natural resources surveys, reported a state broadcaster-affiliated social media account.

• Routine survey asserts resolute jurisdiction east of Taiwan Island. CGTN

How China’s navy is tightening the noose on Taiwan
The Wall Street Journal
Late last month, Chinese navy ships, including large guided-missile destroyers, were positioned all around Taiwan … The ships tend to stay outside the 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone Taipei claims, but not always. They frequently break into so-called joint combat readiness patrols—periods of heightened activity when they push inward by a few miles in a choreographed tactic some security officials call “bumping the boundary.”

Testing Taiwan’s coastal defence capabilities

Coast Guard warns off Chinese vessel from Taiwan’s restricted waters
Focus Taiwan
Taiwan’s Coast Guard has warned off a Chinese oceanographic research vessel, the Xiang Yang Hong 22, from its restricted waters after initially warning it in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), the Coast Guard Administration (CGA) said 19 June. At 11:35 p.m. Thursday, the vessel entered Taiwan’s restricted waters (which extend 12 to 24 nautical miles from Taiwan’s coast) off the coast of Su’ao in Yilan County, the CGA said … According to video footage released by the CGA, the crew of the Lanyu radioed Xiang Yang Hong 22 and said China has no sovereignty over waters off Taiwan’s east coast and demanded that the vessel depart immediately.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

Imposing restrictions on Taiwanese imports

China atemoya plan stirs Taiwan trade dispute
Taipei Times
China’s offer to purchase more atemoya [a tropical hybrid fruit created by cross-pollinating the cherimoya and the sugar-apple] has reignited a cross-strait trade debate, with the government warning the move is a tactic to hook local farmers before cutting off market access. In a news release yesterday, the Ministry of Agriculture cited atemoya — a specialty of Taitung — as a prime example of China’s “raise, trap, kill” strategy, warning that it leaves local farmers exposed to severe market instability.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Expert suggests creating united front tracker
Taipei Times
China has established a vast global network of organizations to expand its influence abroad, an Australian national security expert said, suggesting that Taiwan develop an international public database to track the network’s activities. The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) United Front Work Department mobilizes Chinese communities around the world through the China Council for the Promotion of Peaceful National Reunification, cultivating groups that promote “peaceful reunification,” Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst Geoff Wade said.

CCP influence in Taiwan’s domestic politics

Official criticizes KMT for attending Fuxi memorial
Taipei Times
A government official yesterday criticized the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) for sending party officials to China to attend this year’s memorial for Fuxi, a religious event perceived as part of Beijing’s “united front” strategy against Taiwan. Traditionally depicted as a deity with a human head and a serpent’s body, the mythological figure is revered as the primordial ancestor of Chinese civilization. He was credited with inventing fishing nets, establishing formal marriage rituals and creating early written symbols. He also drew the Eight Trigrams, which laid the philosophical, metaphysical and cosmological foundation for the I Ching (“Book of Changes”). The memorial, jointly organized by China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council, and the Gansu Provincial Government, was held yesterday at the Fuxi Temple in Gansu Province’s Tianshui City.

• Taiwan holds worship ceremony for mythical ancestor Fuxi. Xinhua

• Taiwan content creator explores cultural roots at Fuxi Ceremony. China Daily

KMT accuses DPP of targeting Taiwan’s farmers over trade ties with mainland
South China Morning Post
Taiwan’s main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) has hit out at the island’s government for launching investigations into five agricultural groups over participation in a mainland forum. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) referred the five groups to the Ministry of Agriculture for investigation after they were accused of signing cooperation deals at the Straits Forum in southeastern Fujian province earlier this month. The move triggered a backlash from opposition politicians and farming groups, who argued that the Taiwanese government was penalising legitimate efforts to secure vital export markets.

Falsely portraying Taiwan as the aggressor or obstacle to peace

How a prize-winning Taiwanese novel could stoke Beijing’s worries over history
South China Morning Post
Taiwan’s first International Booker Prize-winning novel has reignited debate over the island’s shifting identity, with its portrayal of a distinctly Taiwanese historical experience at odds with narratives long promoted by Beijing. The attention surrounding Taiwan Travelogue comes at a sensitive time in cross-strait relations, as rival interpretations of Taiwan’s history increasingly shape public discussion over the island’s future and its relationship with mainland China. Set in Japanese-ruled Taiwan in 1938, the novel is framed as a fictional translation and follows a Japanese novelist and her Taiwanese interpreter on a culinary journey across the island.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Expert flags China online poll scheme
Taipei Times
A cybersecurity expert has warned of a coordinated social media disinformation campaign, suspected to be a Chinese psychological warfare exercise designed to build networks for manipulating information and influencing this year’s local elections. Voting is scheduled for 28 November to elect mayors and city councilors in the special municipalities of Taipei, New Taipei City, Taoyuan, Taichung, Tainan and Kaohsiung, as well as county commissioners, mayors, councilors, and township mayors in the other 16 administrative regions. The expert, who spoke on condition of anonymity, raised an alert yesterday after discovering a flood of outdated news posts on Facebook on 15 June.

Flight attendant from Taiwan embraces opportunities on the mainland
Xinhua
A childhood dream took flight across the Strait. When Teng Yu Fei from China’s Taiwan region attended a Xiamen Airlines recruitment event in 2018, hearing the familiar Hokkien spoken during the interview instantly made her feel at home. Today, she is pursuing her dream in the skies while embracing new opportunities on the mainland.

No incidents to report this week.

Challenging other countries’ One-China policies

China views S.Korean official’s remarks on its unchanged position regarding Taiwan positively, hopes SK to abide by one-China principle: FM
Global Times
China views positively the remarks made by a South Korean official who reiterated, in its entirety and publicly to the press, the language on Taiwan in the China-ROK joint communiqué on the establishment of diplomatic relations, said a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry on 20 June. Nam Jin, Director-General for Northeast Asian and Central Asian Affairs at the ROK’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told local reporters on Thursday that South Korea’s position regarding Taiwan as part of China has never changed.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Is China turning up diplomatic pressure against Taiwan in Africa?
NewBloom
Recent events suggest that China is seeking to pressure Taiwan in Africa. Notably, Taiwanese delegates to the 11th Our Ocean Conference were denied entry to a side event, due to the organizers refusing to acknowledge their Taiwanese passports as valid travel documents. Subsequently, two delegates were detained for 20 hours by Kenyan authorities, during which their passports and cell phones were confiscated, even as the Taiwanese government was reportedly aware of the incident and sought to intervene.

• Beijing’s bullying of Taiwan threatens ocean ecology. The Diplomat

Taiwan rejects China embassy in Belgium claim on Taiwan
Taiwan News
Taiwan’s representative office to the European Union and Belgium on 20 June rejected a claim by the Chinese Embassy in Belgium that Taiwan is part of China. The Chinese Embassy in Belgium posted on Facebook on Friday asserting Beijing’s position on Taiwan. The post also urged the Belgian public to support it. In response, Taiwan’s representative office issued statements in Mandarin, English, Dutch, French, and German. It said repeating a narrative does not make it a fact.

Lithuanian President says foreign minister’s tenure depends on China ties and ‘commitments’ to Taiwan region; remarks reveal an opportunistic mindset: Chinese expert
Global Times
In two consecutive days, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has remarked on ties with China. He said on 19 June the future of Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys in his post will depend on progress in two areas: Normalizing relations with China and “delivering on commitments made to Taiwan,” Lithuanian media LRT reported. A Chinese scholar argued that despite Lithuania’s overtures for better bilateral ties, the remarks reveal an opportunistic mindset. By linking the foreign minister’s political fate to both China rapprochement and pledges to the Taiwan region, the statement lays bare a fence-sitting approach and a lack of sincerity in improving ties with China.

Taiwan rebukes China-Myanmar statement over sovereignty claims
Taiwan Times
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Friday condemned a China-Myanmar joint statement, saying it undermines Taiwan’s sovereignty and misinterprets UN General Assembly Resolution 2758. In a statement, the ministry said Myanmar and China issued the declaration on 17 June, which it said improperly downgraded Taiwan’s sovereign status, per CNA … It expressed regret that Myanmar’s government continues to align closely with China. Taiwan has provided cooperation in Myanmar since 2016 in areas including public health, economic development, and humanitarian assistance, it said.

No incidents to report this week.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 2 June 2026 to 9 June 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

On 3 June 2026, it emerged that China had imposed a one-year ban on four New Zealand MPs after they visited Taiwan in May. The MPs had travelled as part of a cross-party parliamentary delegation. Beijing’s response was to bar them from entering mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau, reportedly with the possibility that the ban could be reduced or waived if they apologised.

These were non-government parliamentarians participating in a long-running form of informal parliamentary engagement with Taiwan. New Zealand MPs have visited Taiwan for decades. This was not a sudden change in New Zealand policy, nor was it a breach of Wellington’s long-standing position. New Zealand, like many countries, recognises the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China, but it has not accepted Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is part of the PRC. The 1972 joint communiqué says New Zealand “acknowledges” China’s position on Taiwan; it does not say Wellington endorses it.

So why now? Well, it is not that New Zealand changed what it was doing. It is that Beijing has changed what it is willing to tolerate as it continues narrowing the space between formal diplomatic recognition and informal engagement. For decades, many countries have maintained unofficial ties with Taiwan while avoiding formal recognition. That ambiguity has allowed trade, parliamentary exchanges, cultural links and technical cooperation to continue without crossing the diplomatic red line. Beijing appears increasingly less willing to tolerate that distinction and has moved its red line.

That arbitrariness is what makes the episode dangerous. If a practice that has been tolerated for decades can suddenly become sanctionable, then the problem is not the conduct of New Zealand MPs. The problem is Beijing’s willingness to redefine the rules suddenly and unilaterally. That makes engagement with Taiwan more unpredictable, because countries cannot know whether activities considered acceptable today will be punished tomorrow.

New Zealand is a useful target precisely because it is not usually seen as a front-line Taiwan actor. It has a substantial trade relationship with China, including a free trade agreement, a reputation for careful diplomacy, and a comparatively restrained public posture on Taiwan. By sanctioning New Zealand MPs, Beijing is signalling that even small and cautious democracies are now no longer exempt from punishment if their parliamentarians engage with Taiwan. The point is not only to punish these four MPs; it is to intimidate future delegations.

Wellington’s response has so far been careful but firm: it has reaffirmed its One China policy, but also rejected Beijing’s attempt to police parliamentary activity. New Zealand has raised the issue directly with China, and Australia has also complained to Beijing about the ban. That matters because it turns the episode from a bilateral dispute into a broader question about how democracies respond when China tries to impose costs on unofficial engagement with Taiwan.

For other countries, the message is clear: Beijing may increasingly treat unofficial engagement with Taiwan as sanctionable conduct, even when it is carried out by legislators rather than governments. The risk for countries is that silence and capitulation will only invite more pressure from Beijing. The opportunity is that even modest collective pushback can make parliamentary engagement with Taiwan harder to punish.

1-16 June: KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun visit to US

6-10 June: Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim’s Palau visit

13 June: 18th Straits Forum will be held in Fujian

Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, said at a regular press conference on 3 June that the 18th Straits Forum will be held in Fujian in mid-June, with the main forum scheduled for 13 June.

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

Beijing deploys new missiles matching Patriots opposite Taiwan
South China Morning Post
Mainland China has equipped frontline troops facing Taiwan with a new missile, according to mainland state media. The missile is believed to be an HQ-16F, which has comparable qualities to the US Patriot PAC2 and 3 systems. On 5 June, Chinese state broadcaster CCTV aired footage of the 73rd Group Army’s first operational and live-fire assessment of the missile in the Gobi Desert.

Taiwan says China Coast Guard patrols to its east are ‘provocative act’
Reuters
Chinese Coast Guard patrols to the east of Taiwan are a “provocative act” and the military will closely ‌coordinate with the island’s Coast Guard in responding, Defence Minister Wellington Koo said on 8 June … Late ​on 6 June Chinese state media said ships had been sent to carry out a “special maritime ⁠traffic law-enforcement operation” in the waters east of Taiwan.

• Taiwan hits back at Beijing’s ‘cognitive warfare’ after coastguard patrols. South China Morning Post

• China launches maritime law enforcement operation in waters east of Taiwan island after Japan-Philippines unilateral delimitation move. Global Times

• Chinese flotilla surges east of Taiwan amid spat with the Philippines, Japan. U.S. Naval Institute News

ASPI Comment: The spat is about China objecting to closer Japan–Philippines maritime security cooperation, especially around the South China Sea, Taiwan and nearby disputed waters. Beijing sees this as part of a wider US-aligned effort to contain China, while Japan and the Philippines argue they are responding to China’s coercive behaviour at sea. For Manila the focus is the South China Sea, especially the Scarborough Shoal; for Tokyo it is the broader pattern of Chinese pressure across the region.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

No incidents to report this week.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

MAC bars central and local officials from Straits Forum
Taipei Times
Taiwan would not allow personnel from either central or local governments to attend the Straits Forum starting on Saturday next week in China’s Xiamen, Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Deputy Minister Liang Wen-chieh said 4 June. “The Straits Forum serves as the Chinese communist government’s platform for deploying ‘united front’ tactics against Taiwan, whose goal is infiltrating Taiwanese society under the pretext of cross-strait exchange,” he told a routine news conference in Taipei. The move signaled a hardening of the government’s stance that had barred only central government personnel from participating in the summit, not their counterparts in local government.

Experts and industry representatives discuss integrated development of cross-strait new media industries: Making good use of AI to “connect hearts” [专家业者热议两岸新媒体产业融合发展：善用AI“心相连”]
Xinhua
Want Want Group Vice Chairman Chou Hsi-wei and Gao Zhikai, deputy director of the Center for China and Globalization, delivered keynote speeches respectively on the themes “AI Without Borders, Hearts Connected Across the Strait” and “Immediate Success: Both Sides of the Strait Join Hands for the Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation”. Gao said that both sides of the Strait should rely on digital technology to build consensus among the people and work together to promote national rejuvenation … Participants said that the new media industries on both sides of the Strait each have their own strengths and that there is great potential for integrated development. The mainland has vast market space, rich media application scenarios and a mature industrial ecosystem, while Taiwan has strong content creation capabilities, advanced technology research and development experience, and a broad communications outlook.

Pressuring others to refer to Taiwan incorrectly as a part of China

Legislature freezes part of Taiwan’s ADB donation over designation
Focus Taiwan
The Legislative Yuan’s Finance Committee decided on Monday to freeze nearly a quarter of the funding Taiwan has proposed to give the Asian Development Bank in 2026 in protest against the bank’s change of Taiwan’s designation 40 years ago … They said the NT$30 million will not be unfrozen until the ADB responds to Taiwan’s concerns over the designation. Though the Republic of China (Taiwan) was one of the founding members of the ADB in 1966, its designation was changed to “Taipei,China” (space after the comma deliberately omitted) in 1986, after the People’s Republic of China joined the bank.

• Legislative committee moves to freeze NT$30m in ADB funding over ‘Taipei,China’ name. Taipei Times

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

Taiwan Affairs Office: If the DPP authorities dare to sell out national interests, they will be spurned and punished [国台办：民进党当局胆敢出卖民族利益，必受唾弃和惩罚]
Xinhua
Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, said on 3 June at a regular press conference, in response to a question, that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is part of China. The maritime area that Japan and the Philippines have announced they intend to delimit lies east of China’s Taiwan island. Their so-called “delimitation talks” seriously infringe on China’s maritime rights and interests, seriously violate international law and the basic norms of international relations, and are entirely illegal and invalid.

Cyber attacks on Taiwan’s critical infrastructure

The seabed is becoming a battlefield. Taiwan has field notes
The Strategist
As Australia strengthens the protection of critical seabed infrastructure, it should draw on Taiwan’s frontline experience. Taiwan has been battling this problem for three years … As Australia strengthens its undersea capabilities through AUKUS, Taiwan’s experience offers a separate and complementary source of operational insight. This would require no change to Australia’s policy settings. It would begin with recognising the practical value of lessons already learned.

Excessive Taiwanese data collection and privacy infringement

Taiwan telecom warns of travel eSIM use
Taiwan News
As overseas travel rebounds, Taiwanese travelers are increasingly turning to eSIM services instead of traditional roaming plans, but telecommunications experts warn low-cost options may pose cybersecurity and privacy risks … recent reports have raised concerns that some travel eSIM services route data through Chinese telecommunications networks, potentially exposing users to security risks.

Outreach to Taiwan’s last 12 diplomatic allies

Palau president affirms Taiwan sovereignty during Hsiao’s visit
Focus Taiwan
Palau President Surangel S. Whipps Jr. expressed strong support for Taiwan during Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim’s visit to the Pacific ally, saying on 7 June that failure to recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty would call into question the sovereignty of small countries. “If Taiwan’s sovereignty is not recognized, then who are we to say that we’re sovereign? Might as well eliminate all small countries,” Whipps said at a welcome dinner for Hsiao in Koror, Palau’s largest city. “We have to stand up for freedom. We have to stand up for democracy and we have to stand up for the rule of law,” said Whipps, whose country is one of Taiwan’s 12 diplomatic allies worldwide and one of three in the Pacific.

• Hsiao promotes Taiwan-Palau ties and tourism during official visit. Taipei Times

Challenging other countries’ One-China policies

China bans 4 New Zealand lawmakers after they visited Taiwan
AP News
Beijing banned four New Zealand lawmakers from traveling to China for a year and demanded they apologize because they visited Taiwan on a parliamentary trip, according to a message from the Chinese Embassy seen by The Associated Press on 4 June.

• Anyone who crosses the line, violates China’s core interests on Taiwan question will inevitably pay the price: FM on latest entry-ban measures on NZ lawmakers involved. Global Times

• Taiwan welcomes Australia-New Zealand support for Taiwan Strait stability. Taiwan News

• Christopher Luxon ‘appreciates’ Australia raising concerns with China over MPs Taiwan trip sanctions. New Zealand Herald

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

Tokyo-Manila EEZ talks aim to counter China: FM
Focus Taiwan
Proposed talks between Japan and the Philippines on maritime boundaries in areas where their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) overlap are intended to counter China, Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said 4 June, adding that Taiwan is in close contact with both countries to safeguard its rights. Lin said China’s military expansion has extended into the western Pacific and into the EEZs of Japan and the Philippines, with People’s Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft and vessels frequently operating near eastern Taiwan, the Diaoyutai Islands (known in Japan as the Senkaku Islands), and Batan Island in the Philippines.

Prosecuting Taiwanese “separatists”

China using ‘lawfare’ to target Taiwan and pro-independence voices, US commission says
First Post
A US congressional commission has accused China of increasingly using legal and judicial mechanisms as political tools against Taiwan, describing the practice as part of a broader “lawfare” strategy aimed at advancing Beijing’s territorial and political objectives. According to the report, China is using legal processes to intimidate, punish and suppress individuals it views as challenging its claims over Taiwan.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 26 May 2026 to 2 June 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

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A strong economy, among other factors, is lifting President Lai Ching-te’s low approval ratings, suggesting his presidency may be stabilising after a difficult first two years. After months of weak polling, legislative gridlock and ratings that at times fell below 30 per cent, even a modest rebound is politically useful for Lai. But this is not yet a major political recovery; he may have just stopped losing support.

Recent polling suggests Lai’s public standing has improved slightly, though from a weak base. A TVBS poll released on 14 May put Lai’s approval at 38 per cent, up six points from its previous poll, while the Formosa poll showed satisfaction with Lai’s administration narrowly ahead of dissatisfaction, 45.7 per cent to 44.9 per cent.

That marks a recovery from last year’s low point, when TVBS put his approval at just 28 per cent in August 2025 after a series of political setbacks. It also remains well below the position Tsai Ing-wen was in two years into her first term, when one poll put her approval at 53.5 per cent. A recovery to the high 30s is therefore meaningful for Lai, but it looks more like a rebound from a trough than evidence of broad public enthusiasm.

His low ratings reflected the difficult political environment he has faced since taking office. Lai has had to govern without a legislative majority, while repeated clashes with the opposition-controlled legislature over budgets, defence spending and executive authority have made his administration look constrained and embattled.

Several factors may explain the uptick:

• A strong economy: This seems to be the clearest driver with TVBS attributing Lai’s rise from 32% to 38% largely to economic satisfaction, with economic approval rising from 34% to 46% amid a strong stock market and technology sector performance.

• National security is back at the centre of politics: China’s coercive pressure, uncertainty around Trump’s Taiwan policy, and debate over defence spending have all given Lai a powerful platform to push his stance on Taiwanese sovereignty, resilience and deterrence, all issues where the DPP usually has stronger credibility.

• The opposition may be helping him: The opposition-controlled legislature’s cuts to Lai’s special defence budget, and its failed impeachment push, may have helped Lai frame the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party as obstructing government rather than providing responsible oversight. In recent weeks, the legislature cut the special defence budget and tried unsuccessfully to impeach him over a tax revenue dispute.

• The mood around his government may be less negative: TVBS found that Lai’s personal approval improved, but satisfaction with the polciicy areas his administration directly controls remained around 31%. That suggests some voters may view Lai more favourably without being convinced by the government’s overall performance.

• His sovereignty message may be cutting through: A recent MOFA poll found over half of respondents satisfied with Lai’s diplomatic performance, suggesting his external-facing posture may be landing better than some domestic policy areas. Government-commissioned poll shouls be treated with caution, but it points to a possible area of relative strength.

The improvement in Lai’s ratings come at an important time, as municipal local elections are just months away. The implications of greater public approval for Lai on the November elections are real, but should not be overstated. Taiwan’s local elections are primarily fought on local issues: candidate quality, factional networks, service delivery, city and county governance, and the personal standing of incumbents. They are not straightforward referendums on the president. Still, the results can matter nationally because they shape party morale, affect Lai’s authority within the DPP, and influence the standing of potential presidential and legislative candidates ahead of the next national elections in two years.

A slight improvement in Lai’s ratings may help the DPP avoid entering the campaign under a demoralising anti-government mood, but it is unlikely on its own to transform difficult local races or overcome entrenched KMT advantages in key municipalities, particularly in the north of the island.

1-16 June: KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun visit to US

Cheng is expected to meet US lawmakers, officials and academics. Politically, the trip is also framed as a “peace” mission, with Cheng signalling she is willing to meet any leader, including Trump, if it helps reduce conflict risk, while pushing her line that Taiwan should avoid steps Beijing could portray as “independence”.

• Taiwan’s KMT leader to begin US tour to promote cross-strait peace. NHK

6-10 June: Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim’s Palau visit

This will be Hsiao’s first visit to a diplomatic ally as vice president. The agenda is framed around deepening Taiwan–Palau ties, sustainable tourism, and cooperation projects in health, agriculture, fisheries and infrastructure.

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

Taiwan tracks second Chinese ‘combat’ patrol in a week, sends ships and jets to monitor
Reuters
Taiwan sent ships and fighter jets ‌to monitor the second Chinese “joint combat readiness patrol” in a week near the island, in what a senior Taiwanese security official said showed China was the sole source of instability in the region. China has pressured Taiwan by increasing its military presence around the island, and Taipei is on high alert for further ​Chinese actions after President Xi Jinping discussed Taiwan with U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing this month.

China’s navy is shifting pressure beyond the Taiwan Strait
The Diplomat
As temperatures rose sharply in May, China carried out four “joint combat readiness patrols” around Taiwan, on May 1, 6, 19, and 25. When compared with similar activity in recent years, this high frequency of military operations is unusual. It also suggests that the assumption that a recent decline in the number of PLA sorties around Taiwan necessarily indicates a reduced threat may not fully correspond to the current security environment in the Taiwan Strait.

China says Taiwan should not ‘interfere’ in its air force missions around island
Reuters
Taiwan should not “interfere” in Chinese air force missions around the island which are taking place in China’s airspace, the defence ​ministry in Beijing said on Thursday, responding to a week ‌of manoeuvres that Taipei has complained about … On 25 May of this week and ​Tuesday last week, Taiwan said China had carried out “joint combat ⁠readiness patrols” and published pictures of Chinese warships, as well as ​of Chinese fighters taken by Taiwanese jets. “Taiwan is a part of China,” ​Chinese Defence Ministry spokesperson Jiang Bin said in Beijing when asked to comment on the patrols. “Our aircraft conduct military activities within Chinese airspace.”

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

No incidents to report this week.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Taiwanese youth in Guangdong watch A Love Letter to Grandma: feeling cross-strait affection through qiaopi letters [在粤台青观影《给阿嬷的情书》：从侨批中感受两岸情义]
Xinhua
The cultural study and exchange activity “Crossing Mountains and Seas to Seek Roots, Family-and-Nation Sentiment United in One Heart”, hosted by the Guangdong Provincial Federation of Taiwan Compatriots, was held in Guangzhou on 30 May. More than 20 Taiwanese students studying at universities including Sun Yat-sen University, Jinan University and Guangzhou Medical University took part in film screenings, exhibitions and discussion sessions, through which they experienced the deep connection between the two sides of the Strait, rooted in shared ancestry and cultural continuity.

On 30 May, Taiwanese students visited a special exhibition of film props from ‘A Love Letter to Grandma’ at the Guangzhou Overseas Chinese Museum. Photo by Xinhua reporter Yang Shenshen.

The fourth meeting of the fourth council of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) was held in Beijing [海协会第四届理事会第四次会议在京召开]
Xinhua
The fourth meeting of the fourth council of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits was held in Beijing on 27 May. The meeting focused on implementing the CCP Central Committee’s decisions and arrangements on Taiwan work, analysing the current situation in the Taiwan Strait, reviewing ARATS’ work over the past year, and setting plans for the next stage. The meeting called on ARATS, in the face of the complex and severe situation in the Taiwan Strait, to thoroughly study and implement General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important expositions on Taiwan work and the Party’s overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan question in the new era.

ASPI Comment: The Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) is Beijing’s semi-official body for handling cross-strait affairs with Taiwan, especially practical or technical matters that the PRC does not want to treat as state-to-state relations. It was established in 1991 and operates under the direction of the Taiwan Affairs Office. Its Taiwan counterpart is the Straits Exchange Foundation. In periods of cross-strait dialogue, ARATS has served as Beijing’s main negotiating channel with Taipei on issues such as travel, trade, transport and legal cooperation. Politically, however, it is not independent: it functions as part of Beijing’s broader Taiwan work system and reflects the CCP’s position that cross-strait engagement should occur under a “one China” framework.

Pressuring others to refer to Taiwan incorrectly as a part of China

Taiwan accuses China of trying to ‘silence’ its president after New York Times reporter expelled
The Independent
Taiwan has criticised China’s use of “crude methods” to prevent the media from engaging with its president Lai Ching-te after a New York Times reporter was expelled. The Chinese government expelled Vivian Wang, a journalist with the New York Times, in February following ane newspaper’s interview with Mr Lai in December. Wang, who had been working from Beijing for the American newspaper, was not involved in the interview conducted by NYT columnist Andrew Ross Sorkin.

Taiwan’s NGOs quit U.S. fundraising platform over ‘Chinese Taipei’ designation
Focus Taiwan
Several Taiwanese non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have announced plans to withdraw from U.S.-based fundraising platform GlobalGiving after it informed partners that projects currently listed under “Taiwan” would be redesignated as “Chinese Taipei.” The organizations said GlobalGiving told them the redesignation was prompted by pressure related to the platform’s planned expansion into China, a move they described as a downgrading of Taiwan’s status. Among the groups leaving the platform are the Taiwan Good Rice Circle Association, the Taiwan Gender Equity Education Association, the Judicial Reform Foundation, and the Reporter Cultural Foundation, which operates an independent media outlet, The Reporter.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Beijing praises actress Lin Chi-ling for quitting Taiwan culture board
South China Morning Post
Chinese authorities praised the decision of Taiwanese actress and model Lin Chi-ling to quit her position as a new board member of the Taiwan Creative Content Agency (TAICCA), after her appointment drew backlash. Chen Binhua, a spokesman for Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said at a press conference on Wednesday that the TAICCA had orchestrated and funded films and television productions in recent years that “distort history and hype the ‘mainland threat’”. “It serves as a political tool for the Democratic Progressive Party to advance ‘cultural Taiwan independence’ and incite anti-China sentiments,” Chen said, referring to Taiwan’s ruling party.

Excessive Taiwanese data collection and privacy infringement

MODA warns of cybersecurity risks in Chinese-made apps
Focus Taiwan
Taiwan’s Ministry of Digital Affairs (MODA) on 27 May said the public should be alert to cybersecurity risks posed by four Chinese-made mobile apps, including Amap, which currently tops both the Android and iOS download charts for navigation apps in Taiwan. The other three apps covered in the review were video platforms bilibili and iQIYI, and messaging app BIMOBIMO, according to MODA’s Administration for Cyber Security (ACS), which announced the findings at a news conference in Taipei.

Outreach to Taiwan’s last 12 diplomatic allies

VP Hsiao to visit diplomatic ally Palau
Taipei Times
Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim is to embark on a five-day visit to Palau later this week to bolster diplomatic relations with the Pacific ally, the Presidential Office said 1 June. Hsiao is to meet with Palauan President Surangel Whipps Jr and other government officials during her visit from 6-10 June, Presidential Office spokesperson Karen Kuo told a news conference. She is representing President William Lai on the trip, following an invitation from President Whipps for the two Taiwanese leaders to visit, Kuo said.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Czech senate head says China can’t control them
Taipei Times
Visiting Czech Senate President Milos Vystrcil yesterday said that China cannot tell the Czech Republic whom to befriend and said he has officially invited Taiwan’s Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu to visit the Czech Republic. Speaking alongside Han at a press event held at the Legislative Yuan, Vystrcil, who arrived in Taiwan yesterday morning, told reporters that Taiwan and the Czech Republic are “free and democratic countries and do not take orders from other countries.” “We will decide who to befriend and who not to befriend,” he said through an interpreter.

• Vystrčil says China cannot decide Czech-Taiwanese ties; invites Han. Focus Taiwan

• China strongly condemns and firmly opposes Czech Senate President’s visit to Taiwan region, spokesperson for Chinese Embassy in Czech Republic says. Global Times

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

China responds to Japan-Philippines boundary talks with expanded sea patrols
South China Morning Post
Beijing has announced law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan, in retaliation against Japan and the Philippines’ decision to launch maritime boundary delimitation talks. According to a statement from China’s coastguard, a formation led by its vessel Daishan conducted the law enforcement patrols on 1 June “in accordance with the law”. “This is a necessary action taken in response to Japan and the Philippines’ unilateral announcement of the launch of maritime boundary delimitation negotiations in waters east of China’s Taiwan island, which seriously infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests,” China Coast Guard (CCG) spokesman Jiang Lue said in the statement.

• China Coast Guard conducts law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan island. China Daily

‘Makes no sense’: experts doubt pause in US arms sale to Taiwan is due to Iran war
The Guardian
The Trump administration’s war against Iran should have no impact on arms sales to Taiwan, experts have said, after a US official suggested a pause in the delivery of a key weapons package was due to the Gulf conflict. Analysts told the Guardian that a $14bn arms package left in limbo after Donald Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping could take up to six years to process, and there was a “low likelihood” of any true connection between events in Iran and weapons delivery to Taiwan. Uncertainty over Washington’s support for the island democracy re-emerged after Trump suggested he could use arms sales to Taiwan as a “negotiating chip” in future talks with Beijing.

Ahead of Chinese foreign minister’s Ottawa visit, Canadian warship transits Taiwan strait
Toronto Star
Just days before China’s foreign minister is set to touch down in Ottawa for a pivotal three-day visit, a Canadian warship transited the Taiwan Strait. The Department of National Defence (DND) confirmed to the Toronto Sun on 29 May that the HMCS Charlottetown — a Halifax-class frigate based out of CFB Halifax — made the journey through the 180-kilometre-wide internationally-recognized waterway last weekend.

• Canadian warship transits Taiwan Strait despite China’s warning. The Globe and Mail

China urges utmost prudence in US approach to Taiwan question
CGTN
China’s Ministry of National Defense has urged the United States to approach the Taiwan question with utmost prudence. Ministry spokesperson Jiang Bin made the call at a press briefing on 27 May in response to a media query about the US pausing a $14-billion arms sale to Taiwan, while including $1 billion in the so-called “Taiwan Security Cooperation Initiative” in its National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027. “China’s opposition to US arms sales to China’s Taiwan region is consistent and clear,” Jiang said.

• US must honor consensus and handle Taiwan question prudently: spokeswoman. China Daily

Blocking Taiwan’s participation in international groupings

Lai says global health system must not leave Taiwan behind
Taiwan News
The global health system should not leave Taiwan out, President Lai Ching-te said on 28 May, after the country was once again not invited to take part in the World Health Assembly as an observer. Speaking at the Presidential Office while meeting members of Taiwan’s World Health Organization delegation, Lai said the group had returned from Geneva after seeking support for Taiwan’s role in global health affairs. He said 11 diplomatic allies backed Taiwan’s bid to join the WHA as an observer, while 26 countries and the EU also voiced support.

No incidents to report this week.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 19 May 2026 to 26 May 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

Hundreds protested in Taipei on 23 May after Taiwan’s opposition-controlled legislature approved only about two-thirds of President Lai’s requested US$40 billion special defence budget, funding the US arms package but cutting domestic programmes such as drones and other locally produced capabilities.

Protesters viewed the cuts as part of a broader pattern in which Taiwan’s opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan obstructs the Lai administration mostly on a partisan basis and ends up using procedural power to constrain national security policy. They believe the opposition is sacrificing Taiwan’s deterrence capabilities on the altar of partisanship.

The cuts signal that the opposition is willing to fund US arms purchases while stripping out the domestic programmes meant to make Taiwan more self-reliant and harder to subdue. For many demonstrators, that looked less like budget discipline and more like recklessly weakening Taiwan.

As Wang Hsing-huan, chairman of the small but strongly pro-independence Taiwan Statebuilding Party, told the crowd: “True peace requires national defence. Only by strengthening our national defence can we ensure Taiwan’s freedom.”

The opposition Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party argue they are not anti-defence. They claim that large spending packages need scrutiny, that the government has not provided enough detail about how the money will be spent, and that the legislature should not give Lai a blank cheque.

That is why the protest was about more than defence spending. It was also about sovereignty. The protesters fear that Taiwan’s own political dysfunction is becoming a strategic weakness. If Taiwan cannot build drones, munitions, unmanned systems and domestic defence production at scale, then its deterrence becomes too dependent on foreign arms deliveries at the very moment US support is becoming more uncertain under Trump.

The timing makes the fight even more consequential. Beijing is intensifying military pressure around Taiwan, Washington is demanding that Taipei do more for its own defence, and Trump’s recent comments have made future arms sales look increasingly transactional. Taiwan cannot afford for partisan budget fights to slow the capabilities it needs most, or to make its resolve look uncertain when deterrence depends on clarity.

June: KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun visit to US

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

Defense report warns of risks posed by CCP outposts
Taipei Times
China’s outposts in the South China Sea could be used to delay and constrain foreign forces during a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, giving Beijing a critical window to carry out amphibious landing and blockade operations, a report said. The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) forward operating bases on islands and reclaimed features in the South China Sea could delay foreign forces long enough for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to secure a key 48-to-72-hour window in the Taiwan Strait, a report commissioned by the Mainland Affairs Council found.

Taiwan says China deployed more than 100 vessels in regional waters
The Strait Times
Taiwan’s security officials said on May 23 that China has deployed more than 100 navy, coast guard and other vessels in regional waters stretching from the Yellow Sea to the South China Sea and Western Pacific. The deployment began before US President Donald Trump’s meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing, and increased to more than 100 after the summit ended, a security official told AFP on condition of anonymity. Mr Trump has caused jitters in Taipei after suggesting US arms sales to Taiwan could be used as a bargaining chip with China, which claims the island is part of its territory and has threatened to seize it by force.

Testing Taiwan’s coastal defence capabilities

Chinese ship leaves after tense standoff near Taiwan-controlled islands
Reuters
A Chinese coast guard ship left waters near Taiwan’s strategically ‌located Pratas Islands at the top of the South China Sea on Sunday following a tense standoff and verbal sparring between the coast guards, Taiwan’s Coast Guard said … Taiwan’s Coast Guard said on Saturday it had spotted a Chinese Coast Guard ship heading to the Pratas and immediately sent its own ship which broadcast warnings and the two sides “engaged in an intense verbal confrontation over sovereignty via radio.” The ​Chinese ship broadcast that it was on a routine mission and that China had sovereignty and jurisdiction over ​the Pratas, the Taiwan Coast Guard said.

• Taiwan, Chinese coast guard vessels in standoff near Dongsha Island. Focus Taiwan

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

No incidents to report this week.

No incidents to report this week.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

State Council Taiwan Affairs Office responds to Trump’s Taiwan-related remarks of ‘not looking to have somebody go independent’
Global Times
When asked how the Chinese mainland interprets the signals sent by the US after US President Donald Trump said in an interview following the China-US summit that he is “not looking to have somebody go independent” regarding the Taiwan question, and whether the Chinese mainland calls on the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities to resume dialogue on the basis of the 1992 Consensus, Zhu Fenglian, a spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, said on Wednesday that the US side understands China’s position, attaches importance to China’s concerns, and, just like the international community, does not stand for or accept Taiwan moving toward “independence.”

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

Lai Ching-te’s rhetorical packaging cannot change the essence of “Taiwan independence”; going against the tide will inevitably end in defeat [赖清德巧言包装难改“台独”本质，逆势而行必遭败亡]
Xinhua
After two years in office, Lai Ching-te — beset by failures, trapped at home and abroad, and having lost public support — has racked his brains to cobble together this set of fallacies and heresies. But hypocrisy and embellishment cannot conceal his separatist “Taiwan independence” nature, and deception and lies cannot blind the mainstream public opinion on the island, which wants peace, development, exchanges and cooperation. National reunification is unstoppable. Those who betray the nation and split the country will inevitably face the judgement of history and the people. Lai Ching-te and the DPP authorities are recklessly charging down the dead-end road of “Taiwan independence” separatism. Their ending is already set: total destruction.

• Taiwan Affairs Office: Lai Ching-te’s actions in the two years since taking office have become increasingly unpopular [国台办：赖清德上台两年所作所为越来越不得人心]. Xinhua

Media reports “emigration wave” in Taiwanese society; Taiwan Affairs Office says the DPP authorities’ actions have left people in Taiwan anxious [媒体曝台湾社会掀“出走潮” 国台办：民进党当局所作所为让台湾人心惶惶]
Xinhua
Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Zhu Fenglian said at a regular press conference on May 20 that, under the DPP authorities’ “independence”-seeking provocations and harmful governance, more and more people in Taiwan are worried that “Taiwan independence” will trigger war. They are concerned that their lives, property and development rights will not be protected, and are being forced to consider leaving their homeland and seeking another way out.

No incidents to report this week.

Outreach to Taiwan’s last 12 diplomatic allies

Marshall Islands reaffirms support for Taiwan globally
Taiwan News
Marshall Islands Ambassador to Taiwan Anjanette Kattil hailed the longstanding partnership between Taiwan and the Marshall Islands on Friday. Speaking at a celebration marking the Marshall Islands’ 47th Constitution Day, Kattil said diplomatic relations between the two countries were “founded upon shared democratic values, mutual respect, and genuine friendship.” Kattil said Taiwan “remains a trusted and steadfast partner” through cooperation in healthcare, renewable energy, agriculture, and other areas. The bilateral Economic Cooperation Agreement, which took effect in January 2025, has also led to stronger economic cooperation, she said.

Challenging other countries’ One-China policies

Conservative MP’s Taiwan trip meant to defy China’s warnings, assert Canada’s sovereignty
CBC
Conservative MP Michael Chong says his trip to Taiwan this week is meant to exercise Canadian sovereignty and defy the Chinese government’s warning to Canada not to send parliamentarians to the region. “The goal was twofold,” Chong said in an interview with CBC’s The House. “First, it was to stand in solidarity with a democracy that’s on the front lines of threats coming from an authoritarian state. “The second purpose was to clearly state that MPs do not take direction from a foreign government as to where they travel internationally,” Chong told host Catherine Cullen.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Trump’s Taiwan gambit is already a gift to China
The New York Times
By laying out U.S. arms sales to Taiwan as a bargaining chip with China, President Trump has handed a gift to China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in his efforts to undermine the Taiwanese government. On 18 May, China’s state media used Mr. Trump’s comments to send a message at home and to Taiwan: that the United States cannot be relied on to defend Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory … Mr. Trump’s remarks suggested he had partly absorbed China’s depiction of Mr. Lai as a dangerous separatist seeking to lead the United States to war. (Mr. Lai and his government say Taiwan is in reality already independent, and that it is Beijing that is the aggressor.)

• Is Donald Trump selling out Taiwan? The Economist

Uzbekistan reiterates support for the one-China principle [乌兹别克斯坦重申支持一个中国原则]
Xinhua
Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently reiterated that Uzbekistan abides by the one-China principle and supports the peaceful development of cross-strait relations. Uzbekistan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Usmanov made the statement on May 18 during a meeting with Chinese Ambassador to Uzbekistan Yu Jun. Usmanov said the government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legitimate government representing all of China, and that Uzbekistan firmly supports all efforts by the Chinese government to achieve national reunification.

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

Why China might react badly to any call between Trump and Taiwan’s president
Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump said on 20 May he would speak with Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te, an unprecedented move for a U.S. leader that could roil U.S. relations with China and maybe prompt more Chinese war games around the island. It was the second time in a week Trump had ​said he intended to speak to Lai, dispelling initial speculation that his first mention of it after meeting Chinese President Xi ‌Jinping last week was a verbal slip … China’s foreign ministry, referring to the possibility of a Trump-Lai call, said on 21 May the United States should “handle the Taiwan issue with extreme caution and stop ​sending wrong signals to the separatist forces of Taiwan independence”.

US Navy signals pause in Taiwan arms sale, drawing swift reaction from Beijing
South China Morning Post
Beijing reaffirmed its opposition to arms sales to Taiwan after the acting secretary of the US Navy said Washington was pausing a US$14 billion weapons purchase by the self-governed island. “China’s firm opposition to US arms sales to China’s Taiwan region is consistent, clear and unwavering,” foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said on Friday.On 21 May, acting US Navy head Hung Cao told a congressional hearing that “right now we’re doing a pause in order to make sure we have the munitions we need for Epic Fury – which we have plenty”.

• China’s opposition to US arms sales to Taiwan region consistent, clear and firm, says FM after acting US navy secretary says Washington paused arms sale to island. Global Times

Blocking Taiwan’s participation in international groupings

Rally participants asked to hide ‘Taiwan’ shirts near WHA in Geneva
Focus Taiwan
Participants in a rally Sunday in Geneva supporting Taiwan’s presence in the World Health Assembly (WHA) were told by staff associated with the WHA to remove or cover up a T-shirt printed with the word “Taiwan,” according to one attendee. The rally was organized by several groups, including the Walking for Taiwan Association in Europe and Ananasli Kulturverein, a cultural group promoting Taiwanese culture to German speakers. The incident occurred as more than 100 participants, including Taiwanese living overseas and supporters of Taiwan, were gathered near the Place des Nations’ Broken Chair sculpture across the street from the United Nations complex, where the WHA was being held.

• The World Health Assembly rejected a Taiwan-related proposal for the 10th consecutive year [世界卫生大会连续第10年拒绝涉台提案]. Xinhua

Detention of Taiwanese nationals in China

Straits Exchange Foundation: Three I-Kuan Tao followers detained in China in May [首頁 / 兩岸海基會：3名一貫道信徒5月在陸被拘禁]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
Straits Exchange Foundation Secretary-General Lo Wen-jia said on 22 May that this month, more I-Kuan Tao followers who travelled to Fujian and Guangdong in mainland China were deprived of personal freedom and detained. The cases involve three people across two separate incidents. Since 2019, there have been 17 cases involving 19 Taiwanese nationals detained in mainland China for religious reasons. Lo urged I-Kuan Tao followers not to travel to mainland China.

ASPI Comment: I-Kuan Tao, also known as Yiguandao, is a Chinese salvationist religious movement that blends elements of Buddhism, Daoism, Confucianism and folk religious practice. It has a large presence in Taiwan, where it was legalised in 1987, but remains politically sensitive in the PRC because the CCP has historically treated it as an illegal sect or “heretical” organisation. That makes Taiwanese followers vulnerable when they travel to China, especially if authorities suspect them of religious organising or proselytising.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 12 May 2026 to 19 May 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

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Beijing’s most important gain from the Trump–Xi summit may not be a concrete policy concession, but the perception that one is already underway. Xi did not need Trump to formally trade away support for Taiwan. He only needed Trump to sound like he might.

That is the narrative Beijing wants: that Trump is preparing to sell out Taiwan as part of a broader accommodation with China. Xi would no doubt welcome an actual deal that weakens US support for Taiwan. But Beijing does not need the deal itself to extract value from the summit. It needs the story of the deal. Trump’s instincts for dealmaking, public boasting, ambiguity and transactional leverage gave Beijing exactly that: a US president whose own words made Taiwan look negotiable.

Trump’s post-summit comments gave Beijing useful material. Asked about Taiwan arms sales, Trump said: “I’ll be making decisions,” before adding that “the last thing we need right now is a war that’s 9,500 miles away.” That is ill-disciplined because it links the routine provision of defensive weapons to Taiwan with the risk of war. It implicitly accepts Beijing’s framing that US support for Taiwan is what produces danger, rather than China’s coercion and threats to use military force.

Trump also said Xi raised Taiwan independence and that he simply “heard him out” and “didn’t make a comment.” That is a problem because silence can be read as acquiescence. Beijing’s preferred language casts “Taiwan independence” as the central threat to peace, and Trump let that framing sit unchallenged. But Taiwan is not a province waiting to secede. It is an independent, democratic state under the name ‘Republic of China’, with its own government, military, borders, currency and elections. The real danger is not Taiwan suddenly “declaring independence” from China; it is Beijing using that hypothetical as a pretext to justify coercion.

That distinction matters because some of the post-summit media coverage then picked up Beijing’s framing, treating a Taiwanese “declaration of independence” as the provocative act to watch. But that framing starts from the wrong premise. It makes Taiwan’s existence look like the source of instability, rather than China’s threat to use force against a society it does not control. Washington’s better framing should be that the core issue is any forced change to the status quo. By failing to say that clearly, Trump allowed Xi’s terms of debate to stand.

The most damaging line was on the ‘Six Assurances’. Asked about the Reagan-era assurance that the US would not consult Beijing on Taiwan arms sales, Trump said: “I think 1982 is a long way away.” He then defended discussing arms sales with Xi. This weakens one of the core political guardrails in US Taiwan policy. Even if Trump did not make a commitment to Xi, the optics suggest Beijing has earned a consultative role in US decisions about Taiwan’s defence.

His comments to Fox News were worse. Trump said he had not approved the weapons package, that he “may do it” or “not do it”, and that “it depends on China” because it is “a very good negotiating chip for us.” That is exactly the narrative Beijing wants: Taiwan’s security being treated as a bargaining chip in a broader US–China negotiation. It tells Taipei that its defence may depend less on its own needs than on what Trump thinks he can extract from Xi.

Trump’s credibility problem compounds this. Because he routinely exaggerates and blurs fact with performance, even reassurance becomes unstable. When he says he made no commitment, allies may still wonder what was implied. When he says Xi does not want war, Beijing can pocket the compliment while continuing coercive pressure on Taiwan. When he says Taiwan is a “negotiating chip”, China does not need to prove the US is selling out Taiwan. It only needs Taiwanese voters to fear that it might.

Xi has his eye on Taiwan’s January 2028 presidential election. His goal is to erode Taiwanese confidence in the United States and encourage the election of a more Beijing-friendly leader. He is also preparing the language for a future crisis: if China creates one, Beijing will frame it as a reasonable response to American provocation.

Xi is still deterrable. But the goal must be to deter a crisis, not just a war. That requires resolve, restraint and disciplined language. Trump gave Beijing the opposite: ambiguity that sounded transactional, silence that sounded permissive, and rhetoric that made Taiwan look less like a partner than a bargaining chip to be haggled over.

19 May: Legislative Yuan to vote on President Lai impeachment

Taiwan’s opposition parties are set to force an impeachment vote against President Lai Ching-te over claims he rejected legislative oversight, but the motion is expected to fail because they lack the required two-thirds majority.

June: KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun visit to US

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

Imposing (and removing) restrictions on Taiwanese imports

TAO again raises Taiwan travel; MAC reiterates need for “mini-two associations” tourism talks [國台辦再提赴台旅遊 陸委會重申觀光小兩會協商]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said it had previously announced plans to promote the resumption of individual tourism to Taiwan by residents of Shanghai and Fujian, and hoped Taiwan would open up as soon as possible. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council reiterated that negotiations must first take place through the tourism “mini-two associations”, and said it hoped the other side would respond to this request.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Tonga-China Friendship Association condemns Taiwan authorities for disrupting Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting [汤中友协谴责台湾当局破坏太平洋岛国论坛领导人会议]
Xinhua
Reporters learned on 17 May that the Tonga-China Friendship Association had issued a statement condemning what it called attempts by the Taiwan authorities to disrupt the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting. The association recently said in a statement that Taiwan’s authorities had used all means to try to disrupt the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting, while repeatedly attempting to expand their so-called “international space” and pursue “Taiwan independence” separatist activities. The Tonga-China Friendship Association said it firmly opposed this.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Trump warns Taiwan not to declare independence
DW
US President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to Taiwan following his recent visit to China, cautioning against any move toward formal independence and reigniting tensions over one of the world’s most sensitive geopolitical flashpoints. Trump’s comments triggered concern and uncertainty in Taiwan, where officials stressed that the island is already a sovereign entity under its official name, the Republic of China.

• Taiwan insists it is independent after Trump warning. BBC News

• Trump warning against ‘Taiwan independence’ deals blow to DPP, Lai Ching-te: KMT vice chaiman. Global Times

• Taiwan vows to maintain ‘status quo’. Taipei Times

ASPI Comment: For more on why Taiwan cannot declare independence, even if it wanted to, see ‘Every day is Independence Day in Taiwan’ in The Strategist here.

Gov’t says Taiwan a full APEC member, blasts TAO’s ‘one-China’ remark
Focus Taiwan
Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) on Wednesday said the country has been a full member of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) for decades, blasting China’s earlier statement that Taipei’s participation in the forum is conducted under the so-called “one-China principle.” Zhang Han, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO), said at a regular news briefing earlier 13 May that China, as the host of APEC in 2026, will handle Taiwan’s participation in APEC meetings in accordance with the “one-China principle” and related APEC memorandums of understanding (MOUs) and practices.

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

Trump warning against ‘Taiwan independence’ sends shockwaves in island; remarks deal a severe blow to DPP and Lai Ching-te: KMT vice chairman
Global Times
US President Donald Trump’s warning against “Taiwan independence” has sent shockwaves through Taiwan’s media and political circles. While pro-Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) outlets have largely attempted to downplay the remarks, a vice chairman of the Kuomintang characterized the speech as a severe blow to the DPP and Lai Ching-te. For analysts, the US president’s remarks underscore a highly pragmatic US approach. They note that Washington appears unwilling to allow a fringe group of separatist forces to derail vital US interests tied to the stability of China-US relations.

No incidents to report this week.

Outreach to Taiwan’s last 12 diplomatic allies

MOFA strongly refutes false and malicious claims by China’s Foreign Ministry regarding Taiwan’s sovereignty and Paraguayan President Peña
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China (Taiwan)
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) condemns in the strongest possible terms and solemnly refutes the malicious statements made by China’s Foreign Ministry at a press conference on 12 May. By falsely claiming that Taiwan was part of China and that Paraguayan President Santiago Peña was a pawn of “Taiwan independence separatist forces,” China’s Foreign Ministry attempted to undermine the close and long-standing diplomatic relations between Taiwan and Paraguay.

Challenging other countries’ One-China policies

China condemns Conservative MP’s Taiwan trip after ambassador’s warning
Global News
China’s embassy in Ottawa is criticizing a trip to Taiwan by Canadian MP Michael Chong, who said his visit is partly to “assert Canadian sovereignty” after China’s ambassador warned against future visits by parliamentarians. “Canada is a sovereign and independent country,” Chong said in a statement Sunday, the day he arrived in Taipei. “We do not take direction from a foreign government about where Canadian MPs can travel internationally, and where Canadian Navy warships can transit in international waters.” Chong was referencing a warning made by China’s ambassador to Canada, Wang Di, during an interview with The Globe and Mail last month.

• A ‘red line’: Chinese embassy condemns Canadian MP’s visit to Taiwan. CTV News

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Pakistan Foreign Ministry: Pakistan has always firmly upheld the one-China principle [巴基斯坦外交部：始终坚定奉行一个中国原则]
Xinhua
Pakistan Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi said on 14 May that Pakistan has always firmly upheld the one-China principle, and has maintained this principle in multilateral mechanisms such as the United Nations and the World Health Assembly. Speaking at a regular press conference that day, Andrabi said Pakistan’s position on the Taiwan issue is consistent: there is only one China in the world, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory. Andrabi said Pakistan firmly supports China’s efforts to safeguard national reunification, as well as China’s relevant initiatives in different multilateral mechanisms, especially at the World Health Assembly.

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

Trump noncommittal to continued Taiwan arms sales after meeting with Xi
POLITICO
President Donald Trump said he was still deliberating a major arms sale to Taiwan, floating what would amount to a significant change in American foreign policy following a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. “I’ll make a determination over the next fairly short period. I’m gonna make a determination,” he told reporters of the potential sale as Air Force One made its way back to the U.S. from China on Friday, saying he needed to speak to the person “that’s running Taiwan.”

• Lawmakers press Trump for military support for Taiwan after Xi summit. CBS News

• Taiwan president seeks US arms sales after Trump’s ‘negotiating chip’ remark. NHK

Blocking Taiwan’s participation in international groupings

Taiwan condemns China over WHA participation ‘non-approval’ comments
Focus Taiwan
Taiwan has condemned China for saying that it had decided not to approve Taipei’s participation in the upcoming World Health Assembly because Beijing sees Taipei as part of its territory. Chang Chih-sha, deputy head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Department of International Organizations, reiterated the government’s stance on Tuesday that Taiwan, officially named the Republic of China, is an independent and sovereign nation. The People’s Republic of China has no right to represent Taiwan at the United Nations and its affiliated agencies, or other international organizations, Chang said during a weekly briefing.

No incidents to report this week.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 28 April 2026 to 5 May 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

Taiwan is one of the clearest winners from the global AI investment cycle. In the first quarter of 2026, its economy grew 13.69% year on year, its fastest quarterly expansion since 1987. Global demand for Taiwan’s AI hardware drove this surge, with exports lifted by semiconductors, AI servers, high-performance computing, cloud infrastructure and related electronics.

Taiwan’s dominance in AI hardware brings real fiscal and strategic advantages. Rapid growth boosts government revenue, attracts industrial investment, lifts wages in high-tech sectors and expands the pool of capital Taipei can devote to its own defence. It also reinforces Taiwan’s centrality to the global economy, strengthening the case that Taiwan’s security is not merely a regional concern but a systemic one. In that sense, Taiwan’s economy is not just performing well; it is becoming even more strategically important.

But while Taiwan’s economy may be booming, it is a highly concentrated boom – one that leaves the island exposed to technology cycles, energy insecurity, US trade politics, Chinese economic coercion and the ever-present risk of cross-strait disruption.

Six key vulnerabilities are equally clear:

1. Taiwan’s growth is increasingly dependent on a narrow cluster of sectors linked to AI and semiconductors. If hyperscaler capital expenditure slows, if AI infrastructure demand normalises, or if inventories build across the electronics supply chain, Taiwan’s headline growth could fall quickly. This is not a broad-based domestic boom in which every sector is expanding evenly. This is a boom driven by technology exports.

2. Taiwan is a small, open, export-dependent economy. Its performance is highly sensitive to US technology demand, global electronics cycles, trade policy and supply-chain restructuring. The recent shift in export patterns has reduced reliance on China, with the United States overtaking China and Hong Kong as Taiwan’s largest export market in 2025. But that also means Taiwan is increasingly exposed to US technology demand, US trade policy and the sustainability of the AI boom.

3. Beijing can still target politically sensitive sectors—agriculture, seafood, tourism, consumer goods and Taiwanese firms operating in China—without directly damaging the semiconductor supply chains on which China and the world also depend. Its toolkit includes import bans, customs delays, regulatory investigations, informal boycotts, tourism restrictions, pressure on Taiwanese businesses and attempts to use market access to divide Taiwanese constituencies.

4. Taiwan imports most of its energy, which makes it vulnerable to shocks in oil, gas and shipping routes. This matters not only for household costs, but also for industrial resilience: semiconductor production is energy intensive, and the wider economy depends on stable maritime supply lines. Any prolonged disruption in the Middle East, South China Sea or waters around Taiwan would quickly become an economic-security issue.

5. Taiwan’s economic strength is inseparable from its strategic exposure. Its semiconductor dominance increases its value to partners, but also makes it a focal point for US–China technology competition, export controls, Chinese coercion and military risk. The “silicon shield” cuts both ways: Taiwan’s indispensability may deter disruption, but it also raises the stakes of any crisis.

6. The AI and semiconductor boom can widen the gap between globally competitive technology firms and the rest of the economy. High-end engineers, exporters and asset holders benefit disproportionately, while younger workers, service-sector employees and households facing high housing costs may feel much less prosperous.

So the state of the Taiwanese economy is generally strong, but brittle in specific ways. Taiwan is growing at an extraordinary pace because it is indispensable to the AI era. Its central challenge is that the very sectors driving its prosperity also deepen its exposure to technology cycles, energy shocks, US trade politics, Chinese economic coercion and cross-strait risk.

27 March to 6 May: Likely PLA spring exercise window

14-15 May: Xi-Trump Summit in Beijing, China

June: KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun visit to US

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

Why Beijing’s weaponised cargo ship could be a crucial player in the Taiwan Strait
South China Morning Post
Beijing’s latest weaponised container ship could play a key role in deterring foreign intervention at a low cost during a Taiwan conflict, according to a mainland Chinese military magazine. The Zhong Da 79 is a medium-sized civilian cargo ship capable of carrying containerised vertical missile launchers, radar sensors and self-defence systems. It was first spotted at the end of last year at Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding’s yard in Shanghai. An article by Ordnance Industry Science Technology earlier this month referred to the vessel as a “containerised destroyer”, noting its firepower matched that of the PLA’s Type 052D destroyers.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

Sanctioning foreign companies for engagement with Taiwan

China’s sanctions hit Europe’s emerging drone doctrine
The Diplomat
By restricting European defense companies cooperating with Taiwan, Beijing is doing more than enforcing its One China Principle. It is severing Europe’s access to a valuable combination: Ukraine’s battlefield drone know-how and Taiwan’s high-tech components. Together, the Ukraine-Taiwan link offers a cheap, scalable war doctrine Europe increasingly needs … Several European countries have been quietly developing a new drone doctrine built on both Ukraine’s battlefield experience – accumulated over four years of war – and Taiwan’s high-tech components, including chips, batteries, and motors sourced outside Chinese supply chains.

Imposing restrictions on Taiwanese imports

Shanghai allows residents to visit Kinmen and Matsu
Taipei Times
The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) on 29 April said Taiwan has never restricted Chinese residents’ identifications for visiting Taiwan’s Kinmen and Matsu islands through the “small three links”, and that the restrictions were unilaterally set by China. As China now lifted its restriction, Taiwan will process Chinese travelers’ applications according to existing regulations, the council said. China’s Shanghai City Government yesterday lifted travel restrictions to allow city residents to visit Kinmen and Matsu individually or as part of group tours, through qualified travel agencies in Shanghai and Fujian, in accordance with related regulations.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Faith, hope and ancestry: William Lai’s clan village in Beijing’s push for cross-strait ties
South China Morning Post
The village of Xintian in Fujian province is usually a quiet rural backwater but that changed in November when popular Taiwanese YouTuber and bodybuilder Holger Chen Chih-han descended on the community. Chen, better known as “Gym Boss”, was on a tour of the mainland and live-streamed his visit to the village to his 1.3 million followers, including his stop at the Lai Clan Ancestral Hall … Since Gym Boss’ live stream, visitor numbers have spiked and the local government has urged the clan association to turn the village into a centre for cross-strait cultural exchange, according to a clan member. A new display hall for this purpose is under construction and is set to be completed by the end of the year.

ASPI Comment: For more on Beijing’s efforts to influence Taiwanese youth in 2025, see ‘Back to the old ways: China tries to persuade Taiwanese they’re Chinese’ in The Strategist here.

CCP influence in Taiwan’s domestic politics

Counting gains from Beijing, Taiwanese opposition leader Cheng Li-wun eyes US trip in June
South China Morning Post
Taiwanese opposition leader Cheng Li-wun is preparing to visit the United States in June, aiming to leverage the political momentum from last month’s meeting with Communist Party leader Xi Jinping in Beijing. Cheng, who heads the main opposition party Kuomintang, will also test her message on the Taiwan Strait in Washington. In recent media interviews Cheng has outlined an agenda that goes beyond traditional party outreach, promoting what she calls “a new road map” for cross-strait stability – one that she argues aligns with US interests while preserving Taiwan’s strategic autonomy.

Pressuring others to refer to Taiwan incorrectly as a part of China

Taiwanese baristas to compete as ‘Chinese Taipei’: Association
Focus Taiwan
The Taiwan Coffee Association said 29 April Taiwanese competitors will compete under the name “Chinese Taipei” in events organized by the World Coffee Championships (WCC), calling the change an unavoidable condition to safeguard participation rights. In a statement, the association said it had been informed by WCC organizers, based in the U.S., that all future entries must use “Chinese Taipei,” instead of “Taiwan.” The group noted that Taiwanese competitors have participated under the name “Taiwan” since 2007, but stressed the change was not its own decision and must be followed to ensure continued participation in international events.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Draft amendments aim to combat cognitive warfare
Taipei Times
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmakers have proposed amendments to the National Intelligence Services Act to define “cognitive warfare” and empower countermeasures against foreign influence. “Doubts about the US” and “doubts about the military” are recurring manufactured narratives used by the Chinese Communist Party, the National Security Bureau said earlier this year. DPP lawmakers such as Lin I-chin, Hsu Chih-chieh and Chen Pei-yu jointly proposed draft amendments to articles 3, 5 and 13-1 of the act that would define “cognitive warfare” as “the act of foreign or hostile forces using artificial intelligence [AI], information technology, or other means to spread false or misleading information, with the intent to disrupt government functions, social stability or the constitutional order of freedom and democracy.”

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

Lai ‘smuggles’ himself out of Taiwan island hours after Yilan earthquake, performing laughable stunt, says FM on Lai’s private jet trip to Eswatini
Global Times
In response to Taiwan regional leader Lai Ching-te’s travel to Eswatini on its King’s private jet on Saturday, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Saturday that just hours within the Yilan earthquake, Lai ditched the people in Taiwan who were still reeling from the disaster and sneaked onto a foreign plane to “smuggle” himself out of the island, squandering taxpayers’ money and performing a laughable stunt in front of the world. That just added yet another episode to the scandalous “Taiwan independence” separatism. The indignified act of Lai and his like once again proves that the one-China principle has long been a basic norm in international relations and prevailing international consensus, the spokesperson said.

No incidents to report this week.

Outreach to Taiwan’s last 12 diplomatic allies

Taiwan’s president makes it to Eswatini, in spite of Beijing
Semafor
Taiwan’s president made it to Eswatini, much to Beijing’s chagrin. The island’s leader, Lai Ching-te, had planned to visit his lone African ally last month but said he canceled his trip because China had pressured neighboring countries to close their airspace. Berlin and Prague also reportedly denied Taiwan’s requests to transit through Europe. But on Saturday, Lai announced he was in Eswatini following a clandestine, unspecified maneuver.

• Traditional welcome for Taiwan president as he visits Eswatini king. AP News

• Foreign Ministry Spokesperson answers reporter’s question regarding Lai Ching-te’s trip to Swaziland aboard the King of Swaziland’s “private jet” [外交部发言人就赖清德搭乘斯威士兰国王“私人飞机”窜斯答记者问]. Xinhua

• Taiwan president defiant on surprise Eswatini trip after China calls him a ‘rat’. The Independent

Paraguay says it’s not abandoning Taiwan. China has other plans
The New York Times
Paraguay today is the only South American country to maintain relations with Taiwan and has emerged as one of the most anti-China nations in Latin America … But China is increasing pressure on Paraguay to sever ties with Taiwan. In the past 18 months, it has been accused of launching cyberattacks against government agencies, bribing top Paraguayan politicians and enticing lawmakers with lavish trips to Beijing. Chinese diplomats have warned Paraguay to “make a correct decision as soon as possible” between China and Taiwan.

Challenging other countries’ One-China policies

China tells Canada not to cross “red line” on Taiwan
Juno News
China’s ambassador to Canada is warning Ottawa that if the Liberal government wants to strengthen and build a “strategic partnership” with China, it must bar MPs from visiting the self-governed island of Taiwan and stop sending Canadian naval vessels through the Taiwan Strait. In an interview with the publicly funded Canadian Press, Chinese Ambassador to Canada Wang Di reportedly urged Canada to sever all ties with Taiwan and refrain from participating in U.S.-led exercises in the Taiwan Strait, claiming Taiwan belongs to China.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Taiwan leader’s last-minute plea to fly via Europe was rejected
Bloomberg News
Germany and the Czech Republic denied requests for Taiwan President Lai Ching-te to transit through Europe earlier this month, dooming his last-minute effort to circumvent a China-backed blockade of his first diplomatic trip to Africa, people familiar with the matter said. Taiwanese authorities made urgent transit requests to European countries including Germany and the Czech Republic after three Beijing-friendly African nations closed their airspace to Lai’s plane and cut off his direct flight routes to Eswatini, Taiwan’s only partner on the continent, according to three officials.

Foreign Ministry criticises some Japanese politicians: silent on historical issues, yet making irresponsible remarks about China’s Taiwan [外交部批一些日本政客：对历史遗留问题噤若寒蝉 却对中国台湾说三道四]
Xinhua
In response to plans by some Japanese politicians to submit a Taiwan-related proposal to the Japanese government, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on 30 April that many people of insight in Japan are reflecting on Japan’s domestic and foreign policies. There has also been much discussion around historical issues such as “comfort women” and forced labour, as well as the rights of Indigenous peoples and ethnic minorities in Japan. Some Japanese politicians either remain completely silent or pretend not to hear about these issues, yet make irresponsible remarks about China’s Taiwan. As for their real intentions, Lin said, perhaps only they themselves know best.

China warns US about Taiwan ahead of Trump’s visit to Beijing
The Guardian
China’s foreign minister on Thursday urged the US to maintain “stability” between the two powers and warned that Taiwan posed the biggest risk, weeks ahead of President Donald Trump’s scheduled visit to Beijing. In a call with the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, foreign minister Wang Yi said that Beijing and Washington should “safeguard the hard-won stability” in China-US relations, China’s foreign ministry said. The talks also discussed the Middle East, where China has been a key partner of Tehran but has largely kept its distance after Trump joined Israel in attacking Iran, sending global oil prices spiralling. A state department official confirmed the phone call and said it was to arrange Trump’s trip but did not give further details.

Rights summit in Zambia is canceled after Chinese pressure to exclude Taiwanese activists
AP News
The U.S.-based organizers of an international human rights conference said they canceled it days before it was due to open because China pressured the African host country to exclude Taiwanese activists. Access Now, the New York-based advocacy group that organizes the annual gathering, said late Friday it had canceled the RightsCon summit in Zambia that was due to take place next week after the Zambian government initially said it was postponed. Access Now said it had been informed by Zambian officials that the government had been pressured by China over the conference “because Taiwanese civil society participants were planning to join us in person.” Access Now said it pushed back on any move to exclude delegates from Taiwan.

• MOFA blasts Beijing after Zambia scraps RightsCon. Taipei Times

No incidents to report this week.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 21 April 2026 to 28 April 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te was set to visit Eswatini from 22 to 26 April, but the trip was abruptly derailed when Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar reportedly revoked overflight permissions for his aircraft shortly before departure. Taipei blamed Chinese economic pressure; Beijing has denied using coercion while also praising the three countries for upholding the “one-China principle”.

Image from Bloomberg.

The episode shows Beijing refining a tactic that sits below the threshold of military escalation: using third countries to turn routine aviation permissions into political leverage. Rather than directly confronting Taiwan, China can constrain Taipei’s international space using its partners willing to impose practical obstacles on its behalf.

Beijing did not need to publicly pressure Eswatini itself. Instead, it allegedly used political and economic influence with states along the flight path to make the visit logistically unworkable. This is coercion: weaponising the ordinary mechanics of international life, airspace approvals, flight information regions, diplomatic clearances and last-minute permissions, rather than relying on overt force.

The timing was also important. The permissions were reportedly revoked late enough to make rerouting difficult, raising the cost and risk of proceeding. That points to the coercive value of uncertainty. Even if Taiwan can eventually find alternative routes, Beijing can impose planning burdens, security risks and political embarrassment. The aim is not just to stop one trip; it is to make every future trip harder, more expensive and more vulnerable to disruption.

Taiwan’s response was to expose the coercion rather than take it quietly. Lai Ching-te framed the incident as an attack on Taiwan’s right to engage with the world, while Taipei accused China of using economic pressure against the three countries. Taiwan then sent Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung to Eswatini as Lai’s special envoy, signalling that Beijing could disrupt the format of engagement but not stop it altogether.

International responses were mixed. The United States publicly criticised China’s pressure campaign, while European representatives also voiced concern. Australia was more measured, with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade urging all parties to avoid actions that raise tensions and reiterating support for the peaceful resolution of cross-strait differences. That stopped short of directly condemning Beijing, but signalled unease with coercive tactics that narrow Taiwan’s international space.

That response reflects a wider reality. Many middle powers dislike Beijing’s coercive methods but calibrate their language carefully to avoid unnecessary bilateral escalation. Public silence should not always be mistaken for strategic indifference.

The broader lesson is that China’s strategy is to compress Taiwan’s room for manoeuvre in the internationa space. Taiwan’s challenge is to keep operating internationally despite that pressure. Other countries’ challenge is to recognise that seemingly technical decisions on transit, access and protocol can become instruments of coercion if left uncontested.

27 March to 6 May: Likely PLA spring exercise window

14-15 May: Xi-Trump Summit in Beijing, China

June: KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun visit to US

Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun said she plans to visit the US in June, where she is to meet with political figures, think tanks and members of the Taiwanese diaspora to spread her message of cross-strait peace.

Testing Taiwan’s coastal defence capabilities

Taiwan on alert as Chinese warships are spotted near Penghu islands
The Globe and Mail
Taiwan has spotted two Chinese warships operating in waters near the Penghu islands in the Taiwan Strait and has sent its own naval and air forces to keep watch, the defence ministry in Taipei said … While Taiwan’s defence ministry offers daily updates of the locations of Chinese military aircraft, it only rarely gives details of where Chinese warships are operating, generally only when it detects aircraft carriers, as happened last week. On 20 April, the ministry said a Chinese destroyer and a frigate had entered waters to the southwest of the Penghu islands, home to major Taiwanese navy and air bases and close to the Taiwan side of the strait.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

Sanctioning foreign companies for engagement with Taiwan

China bans dual-use items exports to seven European entities over Taiwan arms sales
CNA
China’s Commerce Ministry said on 24 April it was banning exports of dual-use items to seven European entities over arms sales to Taiwan, placing them immediately on its export control list, in a rare case of Europe-targeted, Taiwan-related sanctions … The entities, including German defence electronics firm Hensoldt and Belgian-based defence and sporting arms manufacturer FN Browning, have participated in arms sales to Taiwan or “colluded with Taiwan”, a commerce ministry spokesperson said in a statement.

• China bans exports of dual-use items to 7 EU entities involved in arms sales to or collusion with Taiwan island. Global Times

Imposing restrictions on Taiwanese imports

Taiwan business group urges Beijing, Taipei to keep politics out of trade
Reuters
The head of ​one of Taiwan’s top business groups said on Monday both Beijing and Taipei ‌should leave politics out of resuming normal trade and tourism exchanges, after China unveiled new incentives for the island … China refuses to talk to Taiwan ​President Lai Ching-te saying he is a “separatist”, and has stepped up political and ⁠economic pressure in recent years, targeting tourism and imports of food, as well as holding ​regular war drills. “As soon as there is an opening up, it should be as much as possible ​be systematic and normalised to maintain the long-term stability of business and trade exchanges,” said Paul Hsu, chairman of the General Chamber of Commerce.

Economic security is national security
Taipei Times
Equating economic security to national security, Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research associate research fellow Roy Lee said Taiwan needs to strengthen its economic security protections, with core strategies including maintaining competitiveness, economic autonomy and economic resilience. Lee, former representative to the EU, made the remarks at the 14th Global Taiwan National Affairs Symposium in Taipei on 26 April Amid geopolitical tensions and policy competition, the international economic order has reached a critical crossroads, he said.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

New policies, measures bring reassurance to Taiwan youth
China Daily
During the seventh forum of social groups of Taiwan compatriots, Taiwan youth Hsu Tao told China Daily that the newly released measures to boost exchanges and cooperation across the Taiwan Strait would bring more confidence to Taiwan youth on the mainland and further strengthen cross-Strait bonds.

Fujian launches premium tourism routes for Taiwan compatriots
Xinhua
East China’s Fujian province has recently launched five premium tourism routes designed for Taiwan compatriots to strengthen cross-Strait cultural ties through shared heritage and ancestral roots. The initiative, titled “The Journey of Shared Heritage and Glory”, was unveiled following a series of central government measures introduced on 12 April to promote cross-Strait exchange, including tourism. The five routes, each lasting six or seven days, focus on themes including southern Fujian culture, folk beliefs, ancestral temples, regional cuisine, and revolutionary history. Organizers said the routes are tailored to meet the needs of Taiwan residents seeking to visit ancestral homes, attend religious ceremonies, or reconnect with relatives.

Pressuring others to refer to Taiwan incorrectly as a part of China

Mainland reaffirms one-China principle on Lai’s canceled trip to Eswatini
CGTN
The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council has reaffirmed the one-China principle in response to questions on the canceled trip to Eswatini by Lai Ching-te, leader of China’s Taiwan region. A spokesperson said during a regular press conference on 22 April that the one-China principle is the will of the people. In the meantime, the Chinese Foreign Ministry, in referring to Lai, said that anyone who wears a false title is acting against history and will only invite disgrace upon themselves.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Phony whistleblowers, fake journalists and cyber spies: ICIJ network targeted after China Targets probe
International Consortium of Investigative Journalists
Hung, who knows malicious links can be used to steal personal information, suspects that his interlocutor was a Chinese spy impersonating the real Yi-Shan Chen, a financial journalist and editor-in-chief of CommonWealth magazine — a trusted news source in Taiwan … The real Chen told ICIJ in an interview that she shared Hung’s concerns. “Ironically, they are using the credibility of the investigative reporters to [collect] intelligence,” she said. Chen reported the impersonation attempt to Taiwanese authorities. Now, an investigation by ICIJ, with the help of cybersecurity analysts at Toronto University’s Citizen Lab, has found that the incident was part of a sophisticated offensive strategy against ICIJ and its network following the 2025 publication of China Targets. The ICIJ-led exposé, in collaboration with 42 media outlets, revealed Beijing’s tactics to threaten, coerce and intimidate regime critics overseas.

China turns Taiwan’s own voices against it in information war
Reuters
On Douyin, China’s version of TikTok, a news outlet run by the Chinese Communist Party posted a 51-second video of Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun accusing President Lai Ching-te of inviting Chinese aggression. Lai, Cheng said, was “dragging all 23 million of us” in Taiwan into a “dead end, a ​road to death” by pursuing independence. The clip quickly surfaced on Facebook, YouTube and other platforms popular in Taiwan … While China has in the past employed Taiwanese figures in its propaganda, it has turbocharged this information-warfare tactic, the Taiwan security officials said: Familiar voices and accents can sound more credible.

Reunification only path for Taiwan, serves well-being of Taiwan compatriots: mainland spokesperson
Xinhua
Reunification is the only path forward for Taiwan and is key to the well-being of the people on the island, a mainland spokesperson said on 22 April. Zhang Han, spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, made the remarks at a press briefing in response to a recent Taiwan poll, which showed that a majority of the respondents were in favor of strengthening cross-Strait exchanges to maintain peace and stability. The poll was released following the mainland visit by a delegation of the Chinese Kuomintang (KMT) party led by its chairwoman Cheng Li-wun.

PLA Navy’s new film marks anniversary, urges ‘Xiaowan’ (Taiwan) to return to motherland
Global Times
Marking the 77th anniversary of its founding on 22 April, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy released a promotional film titled Sailing Toward the Ocean, highlighting its leapfrog development from a modest origin to a modern force under the leadership of the Communist Party of China. The film features four generations of naval personnel and concludes with a symbolic “Easter egg” alluding to the eventual reunification of Taiwan island with the motherland.

Photo: Screenshot from ‘Sailing Toward the Ocean’.

No incidents to report this week.

Outreach to Taiwan’s last 12 diplomatic allies

Taiwan president blames China for forced cancellation of Eswatini trip
The Guardian
Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, has cancelled his trip to Eswatini, the democratic island’s only diplomatic ally in Africa, after his government said several countries had revoked overflight permits because of “intense pressure” from China … The secretary general of Taiwan’s presidential office, Pan Meng-an, said Seychelles, Mauritius and Madagascar unilaterally and without warning revoked flight permits for the presidential aircraft to cross their countries. “The actual reason was intense pressure exerted by Chinese authorities, including economic coercion,” he told a hastily called news conference in Taipei.

• Legislative Yuan committee condemns China after Lai forced to cancel Eswatini visit. Focus Taiwan

• The Mainland Affairs Council strongly condemned the Chinese Communist Party for its blatant obstruction of President Lai’s visit to friendly nation Eswatini [陸委會嚴厲譴責中共粗暴阻撓賴總統出訪友邦史瓦帝尼]. Mainland Affairs Council (Taiwan)

• The ugly side of Eswatini-Taiwan relations. The Diplomat

• US slams Beijing after African countries block Taiwan leader’s eSwatini trip. South China Morning Post

• International concerns raised after Lai’s flight blocked. Taipei Times

ASPI Comment: For more on what Taiwan hoped to gain from President Lai’s now postponed trip to Eswatini, see last week’s edition of ‘State of the Strait’ here:

Where is the China-Honduras relationship headed?
The Diplomat
One of the central issues during Honduras’ most recent presidential election was the country’s relationship with the People’s Republic of China. Opposition candidates at the time – Salvador Nasralla and Nasry Asfura – suggested that ties with Beijing could be reassessed, leaving open the possibility of restoring relations with Taiwan, which Tegucigalpa severed only in 2023 … The most likely outcome is a balancing strategy: maintaining cooperation with China in strategic sectors while strengthening ties with the United States in areas such as security and migration – an approach not entirely dissimilar to that pursued by Nayib Bukele in El Salvador.

Pressuring others to affirm Beijing’s One-China Principle

Czech PM Babis criticises Senate leader’s Taiwan trip for damaging China business ties
Reuters
The Czech government will not make a government plane available for the Senate chief’s planned trip to Taiwan and wants a ​more pragmatic foreign policy that does not damage business ties with ‌China, Prime Minister Andrej Babis said … Babis said on social media on Sunday that ​Senate chief Milos Vystrcil, a member of the Civic Democrat party that led the ‌previous ⁠government, would lead a business delegation to Taipei in May but would have to travel by commercial airline.

Taiwan fears it’ll be ‘on the menu’ at Trump-Xi summit
Bloomberg
A senior Taiwanese official expressed concern that President Donald Trump might make concessions on the self-governed island in his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, adding Taiwan was working hard to prevent such a scenario. “What we are the most afraid is to put Taiwan on the menu of the talk between Xi Jinping and President Trump,” Deputy Foreign Minister Francois Wu said Friday in an English-language interview with Bloomberg News. “We worry, and we need to avoid that it happens.”

No incidents to report this week.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 14 April 2026 to 21 April 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te will visit Eswatini, Taiwan’s last diplomatic ally in Africa, from 22 to 26 April, in what will be Lai’s first overseas trip since November 2024. Eswatini is an absolute monarchy, and Lai’s trip coincides with the 40th anniversary of King Mswati III’s accession and his 58th birthday. But Beijing has not left Eswatini uncontested, steadily expanding its economic presence while increasing diplomatic pressure to prise it away from Taipei.

Lai Ching-te’s upcoming trip underscores that Taiwan’s shrinking pool of formal partners still carries strategic weight, and that in Africa, Eswatini has become the clearest test of whether Taipei can hold ground against Beijing’s sustained campaign of diplomatic isolation.

Taipei has framed the trip around three goals: advancing work on a strategic oil reserve facility in Eswatini, expanding the Taiwan Industrial Innovation Park there, and deepening digital and smart-city cooperation. These initiatives are designed to make the relationship harder to dislodge by tying diplomatic recognition to tangible gains in state capacity, investment and infrastructure.

That also explains why Lai is going now. Taiwan has few formal allies left. A presidential visit signals that Taipei still treats these relationships as politically important. It also helps reassure Mbabane that recognition of Taiwan still brings access, attention and tailored assistance from the highest level. This is especially important because Eswatini offers Taiwan something larger than its size: a sovereign African partner that breaks Beijing’s preferred narrative of total diplomatic inevitability on the continent.

More broadly, Taiwan–Eswatini ties appear stable, but their scale remains modest relative to larger diplomatic relationships. The two sides have maintained relations since 1968, and the partnership has expanded through health, agriculture, education, women’s empowerment, renewable energy and trade cooperation. Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs says two-way trade reached USD$8.19 million (AUD$11.45 million) in 2024, up 8 percent from 2017, while Eswatini’s exports to Taiwan rose by more than 29 percent over that period.

Beijing has not yet pulled Eswatini away from Taipei, but it is clearly using a mixture of carrots and sticks. Chinese officials have publicly urged Eswatini to “make correct decisions”, and China’s latest zero-tariff policy for African countries explicitly excludes Eswatini because it recognises Taiwan. At the same time, Beijing has been building unofficial economic footholds: reporting in 2025 showed a Chinese state-owned firm had secured Eswatini’s first major mainland Chinese infrastructure contract, the Mpakeni Dam project, despite the absence of diplomatic ties.

So is Beijing making inroads? Yes, but not yet a decisive breakthrough. China is increasing the suite of potential inducements and demonstrating that economic engagement can expand even without formal recognition. That creates optionality for Eswatini’s monarchy. But there is still no clear public evidence that a switch is imminent.

For now, Lai’s trip looks like an effort to keep it that way: reinforce the alliance, raise the political cost of defection, and show that even one remaining African partner is worth a presidential-level investment.

27 March to 6 May: Likely PLA spring exercise window

22–26 April: President Lai will travel to Eswatini

Lai Ching-te will travel to Eswatini from 22 to 26 April for high-profile royal celebrations, a visit that underscores Taipei’s effort to reinforce its last remaining diplomatic foothold in Africa while signalling a more security-focused and strategically resilient partnership amid sustained pressure from Beijing.

11 April to 24 April: Han Kuang 42 Tabletop War Games

14-15 May: Xi-Trump Summit in Beijing, China

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

Could the PLA use minelaying drones in a first island chain blockade over Taiwan?
South China Morning Post
The People’s Liberation Army could use minelaying drones to blockade Japan and other waters in the strategic first island chain during a conflict over Taiwan, a mainland Chinese military magazine has suggested. The PLA’s strategy would see AJX002 drones used for “offensive minelaying” missions targeting Japan’s islands, including the Ryukyu archipelago, as well as the waters of the Philippines, according to an analysis in the latest edition of Shipborne Weapons.

Foreign media reveal Chinese fishing boats gathering in formation in the East China Sea; Chinese state media calls it malicious hype [外媒揭中國漁船東海陣列式聚集 中國官媒稱惡意炒作]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
Several foreign media outlets recently reported that thousands of Chinese fishing boats repeatedly gathered in the East China Sea in specific formations, raising suspicions that the activity could be part of rehearsals for a military assault on Taiwan. Chinese state media outlet Global Times rejected the claims on 17 April as malicious sensationalism … The report quoted Zhoushan fisherman Chen Yanping, who said claims by foreign media that the gatherings were military activity were “complete nonsense”. He said that if many fishing boats gather in one sea area at a certain time, it is mainly because different fishing seasons bring different catches, and once fish schools are found in one area, boats naturally converge there.

How the PLA may use stealth drones in a swarming boat attack from Taiwan
South China Morning Post
A Chinese military magazine has suggested that if Taiwan sends a swarm of uncrewed combat boats across the strait – a strategy inspired by Ukraine – Beijing could counter with its GJ-21 stealth attack drones. According to a commentary in Defence Review, the GJ-21 has long endurance and high manoeuvrability, which would give it a critical advantage against a “game changing” swarm attack by unmanned surface vessels

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

Imposing (and removing) restrictions on Taiwanese imports

Taiwan confirms China has asked for more cross-strait flights
Focus Taiwan
Taiwanese authorities on 16 April confirmed they had received a message from the Chinese side calling for the “full normalization” of direct cross-strait passenger flights, but did not say when they would reply, as officials said existing services still have spare capacity. “The Chinese side sent a letter on April 7 saying it hoped several destinations, including Urumqi and Xi’an, could be reopened,” MAC deputy head and spokesperson Liang Wen-chieh said at a regular news briefing in Taipei. As 7 April was the day Kuomintang (KMT) Chairperson Cheng Li-wun departed for her trip to China, Liang said Taiwanese authorities already knew by then that such proposals would be included in the 10 policy measures announced by China targeting Taiwan.

• China’s ‘incentives’ are ‘poison’: official. Taipei Times

Corporate espionage or undermining business practices

CCP seeks to advance 10 Taiwan-related measures; MAC urges businesses to stand with government [中共欲推涉台10項措施 陸委會籲業者和政府站在一起]
Central News Agency (Taiwan)
Some industry groups are reportedly planning to hold a press conference tomorrow to comment on the Chinese Communist Party’s 10 Taiwan-related measures. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) today again urged businesses not to allow themselves to be used as tools to pressure the government, and instead to stand with the government in jointly demanding that Beijing cease political manipulation and begin negotiations with Taiwan’s government as soon as possible. Media reports said that, in response to the 10 measures announced by China, General Chamber of Commerce chairman Hsu Shu-po plans to hold a press conference on the 20th and mobilise representatives from seven trade associations and industry groups to pressure the government.

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Top political advisor attends Taiwan compatriots forum
CGTN
Chinese top political advisor Wang Huning attended the opening of the seventh forum of social groups of Taiwan compatriots in Beijing on 17 April, and delivered a speech. Speaking at the forum, Wang, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), called for efforts to firmly implement the Party’s overall policy for resolving the Taiwan question in the new era, and adhere to the one-China principle and the 1992 Consensus.

• Wang Huning attends opening ceremony of the 7th Taiwan Compatriot Associations Forum [王沪宁出席第七届台胞社团论坛开幕式]. Xinhua

Taiwan forum hears calls for protection of resistance war history
China Daily
Taiwan compatriots living overseas called for the preservation of Chinese historical memory during their visit to the Museum of the War of Chinese People’s Resistance Against Japanese Aggression in Beijing on 16 April. The guests were attending the seventh forum of social groups of Taiwan compatriots, organized by the All-China Federation of Taiwan Compatriots, in the capital … “The Chinese mainland has preserved this history very well, allowing it to be passed down to future generations,” he said, calling on young people to visit the museum and experience it firsthand.

Taiwan holds Bingwu Year ceremonial homage to the Yellow Emperor [台湾举行丙午年恭拜轩辕黄帝大典]
Xinhua
The third day of the third lunar month is traditionally regarded as the birthday of Xuanyuan Yellow Emperor, considered a founding cultural ancestor of the Chinese people. On 19 April, corresponding to that date on the lunar calendar, a ceremonial homage to the Yellow Emperor was held at Tamsui Yellow Emperor Temple in New Taipei City. Organisers said the event aimed to preserve millennia of civilisation and promote the spirit that both sides of the Taiwan Strait share common roots and ancestry.

Photo taken at the Yellow Emperor Temple in Tamsui, New Taipei City, Taiwan, showing the grand ceremony commemorating the Yellow Emperor in the Year of Bingwu. (Xinhua/Li Jianhua)

Bellicose language about Taiwan

China says its military activities around Taiwan are ‘reasonable, justified’
Reuters
China’s regular military activities around Taiwan are “entirely justified and reasonable” and any tensions are the fault of the government in Taipei, the Chinese defence ​ministry said in a rare comment on 17 April … China generally does ​not provide regular commentary on its daily activities near Taiwan. Chinese Defence Ministry ​spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang told reporters that Taiwan was an “inalienable part of ⁠Chinese territory”. “The People’s Liberation Army organises training and exercise activities in the waters ​and airspace around the Taiwan island to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, which ​is entirely justified, reasonable, and a matter of course,” he said.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Xinjiang tour guide whose video went viral wishes to visit Taiwan
China Daily
Tour guide Dilinur Tursunjan, 26, from the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, said she is looking forward to visiting her friends in Taiwan and seeing the place in person. Dilinur served a family from Taiwan who were touring northern Xinjiang in October last year and southern Xinjiang in March. After spending almost a month together, they have established an emotional link “even closer than friendship”, she said … Lin told Dilinur they wanted a third trip, and at that time, it would be better if there were a direct flight from Taipei to Urumqi. Now they had to transfer via Hong Kong.

Amplifying criticism of Taiwan or the Lai administration

Lai Ching-te curries favour with the US, clings to it, and is selling out, harming and destroying Taiwan: Ministry of National Defence [国防部：赖清德对美输诚贴靠 卖台祸台毁台]
Xinhua
Taiwan is part of China, so what “defence budget” could there be? For the sake of his separatist interests, Lai Ching-te is using the hard-earned money of Taiwan’s people to show loyalty to and attach himself to the United States. This is purely an act of selling out Taiwan, harming Taiwan and destroying Taiwan, while accelerating the island’s slide toward danger and conflict. Some people in the United States are squeezing Taiwan for everything they can get. They do not care whether Taiwan is secure or not. What they really care about is whether they can make more money, even profiting from war itself.

No incidents to report this week.

Testing Taiwan’s security partners

China slams transiting of Japanese warship via Taiwan Straits, calls it ‘deliberate provocation’
Global Times
The Chinese Foreign Ministry and China’s Ministry of National Defense voiced China’s firm opposition and protests on 17 April over the entry of a Japanese Self-Defense Force (SDF) vessel into the Taiwan Straits, while the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) vowed to resolutely safeguard China’s sovereignty and security, as well as regional peace and stability.

• Japan shifting to central role in alliances: experts. Taipei Times

• Japanese warship transits Taiwan Strait; Chinese state media says it seriously damages political foundations of bilateral ties [日艦通過台海 中國官媒：嚴重損害兩國關係政治基礎]. Central News Agency (Taiwan)

For more on how Beijing’s pressure campaign has produced the opposite effect on Japan’s strategic thinking towards Taiwan, see ‘Beijing pressured Japan over Taiwan. It only strengthened Tokyo’s resolve’ in The Strategist here.

No incidents to report this week.

For more on how tech, cyber and policy intersect across the region, check out ASPI’s Daily Cyber & Tech Digest.

Every fortnight, ASPI’s Fault Lines monitors actions that shape and contest the international order in Australia’s region.

Welcome to the latest edition of ASPI’s ‘State of the Strait’ Digest.

Each week ASPI tracks Beijing’s pressure campaign against Taiwan, including military, economic, and diplomatic coercion, as well as political, cognitive, cyber, and legal warfare.

This edition covers the period: 6 April 2026 to 14 April 2026.

Follow the Australian Strategic Policy Institute on X, on LinkedIn, and on Bluesky.

Subscribe now

Kuomintang (KMT) chair Cheng Li-wen’s six-day trip to China was carefully sequenced to send three messages at once: to Beijing, that the KMT remains a useful political interlocutor; to Taiwanese voters, that the KMT can still claim a cross-strait stabilising role; and to external partners, that channels other than Taiwan’s elected government remain available to manage tensions. The trip ran from 7 to 12 April, with stops in Shanghai, Nanjing and Beijing, culminating in Cheng’s meeting with Xi Jinping on 10 April.

7 April 2026 | Shanghai to Nanjing

Cheng entered China via Shanghai, where she was met by Song Tao, head of the Taiwan Affairs Office. That arrival sequence mattered. It gave the trip an official, choreographed feel, but kept it within the Chinese Communist Party’s preferred party-to-party framework rather than formal state-to-state engagement. Even on day one, the message was clear: Beijing will not engage Lai Ching-te’s government, but it will elevate opposition figures willing to operate within its terms.

8 April 2026 | Nanjing and Shanghai

The stop in Nanjing, the former capital of the Republic of China, before that government fled to Taipei, was loaded with symbolism. Cheng visited Sun Yat-sen’s mausoleum and invoked the Republic of China and the 1992 Consensus, before meeting Jiangsu party secretary Xin Changxing. This was classic KMT–CCP historical theatre. Nanjing provided a platform to invoke shared political heritage.

9 April 2026 | Shanghai

Back in Shanghai, Cheng toured technology company Meituan, Yangshan Port and the facilities of state-owned defense contractor Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China — pairing this with peace-oriented messaging, including that “birds, not missiles, should fly in the skies”. This translated abstract calls for stability into visible economic dividends. Beijing showcased its the scale and modernisation of its economy; Cheng framed engagement as a pathway to prosperity.

10 April 2026 | Beijing

The centrepiece of the trip was Cheng’s meeting with Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People. This was the first KMT–CCP leader-level meeting in nearly a decade, and the moment Beijing sought to maximise. Xi reiterated familiar themes on shared identity and eventual unification. For Cheng, the meeting conferred stature, but also sharpened criticism from the DDP and international observers that the KMT was helping Beijing sideline Taiwan’s elected government.

11–12 April 2026 | Beijing

The final phase shifted to incentives and consolidation. Beijing rolled out measures on tourism, flights and trade, while discussing a longer-term CCP–KMT communication mechanism. Cheng’s visit to a Xiaomi facility before departure reinforced the economic framing. The sequencing was deliberate: symbolic alignment first, material inducements second.

What it means

For the KMT, the trip underscores a persistent strategic dilemma. Engagement with Beijing can still generate access, visibility and the promise of economic benefit, but it increasingly comes at the cost of domestic political credibility.

In Taiwan’s current environment, where scepticism of Beijing is high, such visits risk reinforcing the perception that the KMT is out of step with mainstream voter preferences and too willing to operate within Beijing’s political framing. That may have limited impact in municipal politics, but it is a serious liability in presidential contests, where cross-strait positioning is decisive.

For Beijing, the trip is a case study in its preferred Taiwan strategy: unification through coercion. Rather than moving toward employing a risky military option, Beijing continues to combine political signalling, economic inducements and targeted elite engagement to shape Taiwan’s politics over time. Elevating opposition figures, offering selective incentives and reinforcing narratives of inevitability are all designed to normalise integration and erode resistance. The constraint is that these efforts are producing diminishing returns.

27 March to 6 May: Likely PLA spring exercise window

Historically, major PLA drills cluster around political triggers, and April remains a sensitive period given precedent, including the April 2025 Strait Thunder exercises. Recent reporting reinforces this pattern, with China reserving offshore airspace over the Yellow Sea and East China Sea from 27 March to 6 May, an established precursor to large-scale drills and a signal of sustained operational activity. Taken together, this points to a high-probability window for renewed PLA operations in early April, likely involving coordinated air–sea manoeuvres, rapid mobilisation timelines, and blockade-oriented rehearsals rather than purely symbolic signalling.

11 April to 24 April: Han Kuang 42 Tabletop War Games

Taiwan has kicked off the tabletop (simulation) phase of its 2026 Han Kuang military exercises with a focus on testing command decision-making and coordination under more realistic conditions. The drills are introducing U.S.-style rehearsal methods—such as mission backbriefs and combined arms coordination—to improve how units plan and execute operations, while for the first time integrating military intelligence units into the simulations to enhance battlefield awareness.

14-15 May: Xi-Trump Summit in Beijing, China?

A summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump has shifted from an earlier tentative window of 31 March to 2 April to possible dates of 14-15 May, though it remains highly fluid. Recent signals from Trump indicate the meeting is being treated as leverage, with expectations that Beijing could offer concessions, including playing a role in stabilising energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

PLA reveals new weapons or military capabilities

Taiwan spotted Chinese warplanes as Xi met opposition leader in Beijing
Reuters
Taiwan’s defence ministry said on Saturday that it spotted 16 Chinese warplanes operating near the island the previous day, around the same time China’s president was ​meeting the Taiwanese opposition leader. Late on the morning of 10 April, Chinese President Xi Jinping met Cheng ‌Li-wun, chairwoman of Taiwan’s largest opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT) in Beijing, where Xi said he “absolutely would not tolerate” independence for Taiwan, which China views as its own territory.

Weekly Charts: PLA activities in the waters and airspace around Taiwan

Source for charts: Taiwan’s ministry of national defense monitors PLA-AF aircraft, PLA-N naval vessels and PRC official ships (e.g. coast guard) and high-altitude balloons operating in the waters and airspace around Taiwan. Numbers are recorded daily for the 24-hour period 0600 to 0600 Taiwan Standard Time (UTC+8).

Imposing (then removing) restrictions on Taiwanese imports

China to resume flights to Taiwan in bid to ease tensions
The Independent
China has announced it will resume certain ties with Taiwan, including direct flights to mainland cities and imports of Taiwanese aquaculture products. The move comes as the leader of Taiwan’s opposition party concludes her visit to Beijing. The Taiwan Work Office, under China’s Communist Party, issued a statement indicating it would explore establishing a long-term communication mechanism between the Communist Party and Taiwan’s Kuomintang Party.

• China open to Taiwanese TV and imports after opposition visit. Financial Times

• Mainland rolls out policy package to boost cross-Strait ties. China Daily

• Be cautious of China ‘incentive’: expert. Taipei Times

United front work targeting Taiwan

ASPI Comment: United front work targeting Taiwan is orchestrated by a network of party-state organisations that aim to influence, cultivate, and co-opt key figures within Taiwanese civil society. The Taiwan Affairs Office in China has described united front work as “an important magic weapon for the Communist Party of China to unite people and gather strength”. The CCP claims the right to speak on Taiwan’s behalf and uses united front work to claim legitimacy for annexation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China.

ASPI's State of the Strait tracks events that are facilitated by an agency within the united front and are intended to co-opt, exert malign influence, or redefine Taiwan, its people, and its history solely on CCP's terms.

Cheng Li-wen leads Kuomintang delegation in paying tribute at Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum [郑丽文率中国国民党访问团拜谒中山陵]
Xinhua
At around 9 am, Cheng Li-wen and her delegation arrived at the Bo’ai Plaza of the Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum, ascending the steps and entering the memorial hall. Before the seated stone statue of Sun Yat-sen, Cheng, accompanied by vice chairs Justin Lee (Li Chien-lung), Chang Jung-kung and Hsiao Hsu-tsen, along with other members of the delegation, stood in solemn silence … Paying tribute at the Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum has long been a key part of visits to the mainland by Kuomintang chairs. After the ceremony, Cheng told reporters that the purpose of the trip was to “plant the seeds of peace” for Chinese people on both sides of the strait, with each person nurturing them so that the tree may grow, branch out, and become towering. “So that all future generations can live under its shade and pursue their own life dreams without concern.”

ASPI Comment: The CCP co-opts Sun Yat-sen as a symbolic bridge to fold Taiwan into its unification narrative, portraying him as a shared national figure whose legacy must culminate in “national rejuvenation” under CCP rule. Through state media, United Front activity and messaging from Xi Jinping, Sun is reframed as evidence that both sides of the strait belong to one China, sidelining Taiwan’s democratic transformation and recasting the Republic of China as a temporary stage rather than a continuing sovereign system.

On the morning of 8 April, Kuomintang Chair Cheng Li-wen led a KMT delegation in paying tribute at the Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum. (Xinhua News Agency reporter Xing Guangli)

CCP influence in Taiwan’s domestic politics

KMT chair welcomes China’s Taiwan measures as party members urge pragmatic response
Focus Taiwan
Kuomintang (KMT) Chairperson Cheng Li-wun returned from a six-day visit to China on 12 April welcoming Beijing’s newly announced Taiwan incentive measures, as party figures and tourism representatives called on the government to respond pragmatically. Upon arriving at Taoyuan International Airport from Beijing on Sunday afternoon, Cheng told reporters she was “very thankful” to the Taiwan Work Office of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee for announcing the 10 preferential measures for Taiwan.

• General Secretary Xi Jinping met with Kuomintang Chairperson Cheng Li-wen [习近平总书记会见中国国民党主席郑丽文]. Xinhua

• Mainland Affairs Council criticises Xi–Cheng meeting: ‘peace framework’ is in fact a ‘unification framework’ [陸委會批鄭習會：「和平框架」實為「統一框架」]. Central News Agency (Taiwan)

On the morning of 10 April, Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping met in Beijing with a Kuomintang delegation led by Chair Cheng Li-wen. (Xinhua News Agency reporter Xie Huanchi)

Espionage

Chinese infiltration targeting rank-and-file: NSB
Taipei Times
China’s infiltration of Taiwan is systematic, planned and targeted, with recent activity shifting from recruiting mid-level military officers to rank-and-file enlisted personnel, National Security Bureau (NSB) Director-General Tsai Ming-yen said 8 April. The Legislative Yuan invited Tsai to deliver a report on bureau operations to its Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee. China’s infiltration is systematic, in that it integrates national security, intelligence operations and “united front” work into a dense network to conduct intelligence gathering and espionage in Taiwan, he said.

Disinformation campaigns designed to undermine Taiwan

Xi tells Taiwan opposition leader people on both sides of strait are Chinese in rare meeting
The Guardian
In a rare meeting with Taiwan’s opposition leader, China’s president, Xi Jinping, declared that people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait were Chinese and wanted peace … Cheng has previously said that it was a “very natural thing” to identify as Chinese – a stance that is increasingly at odds with mainstream opinion in Taiwan where polling suggests two-thirds of people see themselves as being primarily Taiwanese. Meeting Xi in Beijing, Cheng said that Taiwan should “no longer be a flashpoint for potential conflict” and should instead become “a symbol of peace jointly safeguarded by Chinese people on both sides of the strait.”