It would be easy to dismiss that as optimistic messaging that Democrats are using to energize voters and donors — but when you look beyond the rhetoric, you’ll notice that nearly every major indicator we have heading into November is pointing in the same direction:

1. History favors the party out of power. In 20 of the last 22 midterm elections, the president’s party has lost ground in the U.S. House.

2. Trump enters this election from a historically weak position. His approval ratings are among the lowest of his presidency, adding another significant headwind for Republicans to the structural disadvantage the president’s party already faces in a midterm.

3. Democratic enthusiasm is translating into actual votes. This year alone, Democratic voters cast more than 16 million primary ballots, compared to 12.4 million for Republicans. Democratic turnout increased 40% from the last midterm cycle, while participation increased in more than 90% of House primaries.

Taken together, the evidence suggests Democrats may be entering one of the strongest electoral environments the party has seen in decades.

Chart via Politico

A favorable national environment does not automatically translate into transformative change.

Here’s what all the data won’t tell you: even if Democrats retake the House, with Donald Trump still in the White House, it is unlikely these electoral gains will translate to meaningful policy change. At best, we can expect harm reduction.

But harm reduction simply isn’t enough at a time when working families are struggling with the cost of housing, childcare, groceries, and healthcare, while the federal minimum wage has been frozen at $7.25 an hour since 2009.

Democrats need to invest in places where winning elections can actually translate into governing power immediately. Our communities deserve more than electoral victories that change who holds office without changing the material conditions of their lives.

How can Dems actually make a difference for working people?

This November, 83% of state legislative seats will be decided, including competitive districts where shifts in turnout and political enthusiasm can determine control of entire chambers. And the political environment is just as favorable down the ballot as it is at the top of the ticket.

Since Trump’s election, Republicans haven’t flipped a single Democratic-held state legislative seat, while Democrats have flipped 30 seats and continued making gains across the country — including deep-red seats Trump carried in 2024.

Winning in state races this November is the difference between someone being able to get an abortion without crossing state lines. It means an hourly worker having paid time off and a child having access to free school lunch.

Democrats have spent months talking about the possibility of a blue wave, but less time considering which seats could actually produce the most change for working people.

Without sufficiently investing in state legislative races, the party risks wasting one of the rare electoral environments where we can bring material change for millions of people.

State races are a blind spot for Democrats. How do we fill the gap?

States Win exists because traditional Democratic strategy has undervalued state legislatures, while Republicans have made state power a core part of their mission for decades.

When States Win was founded in 2017, Democrats held just six state trifectas. Today, Democrats hold 16. That means roughly 82.5 million more people live in states where Democrats control the governorship and both chambers of the legislature.

Those new blue trifecta states have gone on to abolish the death penalty, provide free breakfast and lunch for public school students, protect abortion access, increase wages, protect LGBTQ youth, and much more.

If 2026 develops into the wave election the evidence suggests it could be, we can’t allow the opportunity to end at the top of the ballot. That’s why this year, States Win is making our largest number of endorsements to turn a favorable national environment into lasting Democratic power in state legislatures across the country.

We’ve already invested in 55 incredible community leaders across Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — with more strategic endorsements on the way.

These are first-time candidates and vulnerable incumbents, teachers and attorneys, parents and community advocates, nurses and organizers. They are people who know their communities because they live, work, raise families, and build their lives in them — and they’re stepping up to fight for their neighbors who call these states home.

Between now and November, there will be no shortage of organizations, pundits, and political strategists telling you what a blue wave could mean for Congress. But if Washington D.C. is the only place Democrats look for opportunity, we will have fundamentally underestimated the scale of what 2026 could make possible.

Join States Win in making sure this blue wave reaches every level of the ballot.

From building Democratic trifectas to breaking Republican supermajorities, Dan and Sarah break down where Democrats can win and why investing down ballot can deliver an outsized impact.

Support States Win’s work to win state legislatures by clicking here.

Full transcript of the Substack LIVE with Dan Pfeiffer and Sarah Curmi:

Dan Pfeiffer:
I am very excited for this conversation. I’m joined here by Sarah Curmi from States Win. We’ll talk about state legislatures, the 2026 election, what your organization is doing, and how people who may be watching can get involved.

Just start by telling me who you guys are, what you do, and why you guys are so important.

Sarah Curmi:
Yeah, thanks so much for having us on today, Dan, and for all of your support of our organization in the past. So I’m Sarah Curmi, Executive Director of States Win, formerly Sister District. And we are focused exclusively on state legislatures and bringing them into democratic power, into democratic control, because we know how under-resourced these races are and yet how impactful they are, what a difference they can make in people’s lives.

I am a Michigander. I had the pleasure of being under a democratic trifecta for a couple of years, and also worked in the legislature. And so I know firsthand the impact these offices have on everything from the quality of our schools to the funding our communities get to our fundamental freedoms like abortion rights, LGBTQ plus rights and environmental protections. And so that’s why at States Win we are so focused on these races and opportunities we have this year.

Dan Pfeiffer:
And to say exactly what you do and how you help state legislative races, what specifically are you guys doing around the country?

Sarah Curmi:
So we dig in deep with these candidates. We have a phenomenal political team. They look at all the races all across the country. I know one of the biggest barriers to entry to getting folks engaged in state legislative races. It feels kind of like a morass. There are 50 states with 50 state legislatures, and they’re all different, and all the rules are different. And so we do that legwork for you.

We figure out what states we should be involved in paying attention to, and within those states, what seats are really determinative to flipping a chamber, holding a crucial chamber, or breaking a Republican supermajority. And then once we endorse we wrap them in support with amazing volunteer teams.

We have volunteer teams all across the country. And they raise money and do voter contact for these candidates. The two things that the candidates repeatedly say are most helpful to them is what we offer to these candidates. And it’s been working.

Dan Pfeiffer:
Maybe explain a little bit for folks who don’t know what a supermajority and why it’s so important to break them, even in states where we do not control either of the legislatures or the governor’s race.

Sarah Curmi:
That’s a great question. I think breaking Republican supermajorities matters both in the short term for folks who are living in these states. It provides a real opportunity for Democrats who are in these chambers to have leverage.

Dan Pfeiffer:
It does.

Sarah Curmi:
It depends a little bit on the state, but Democrats, sometimes if they break a Republican supermajority, can hold a governor’s veto or make sure that there’s not a quorum if there’s a certain issue that Republicans are trying to bring.

But we also know that for the long term, we need to broaden that path to power and make sure that we’re impacting people’s lives in the right way in the short term and the long term.

Dan Pfeiffer:
We know what the battleground states are. They’ve been the same ones in every presidential election, at least over the last three cycles. Some of the old ones keep falling off, which is not great. And we’ve gotten some new ones, too.

What are the states where you’re looking at expanding? What are the places where there are opportunities for state legislatures in this cycle you guys are focused on that are outside of that core seven or so battleground states?

Sarah Curmi:
Yeah. So like I said, last year we added Iowa to our map and then we’ve kept it this year. This year we are also adding Indiana, Kansas and Ohio, where we have a real opportunity to break Republican supermajorities there.

Ohio, when I first started in politics, was one of those battleground states, but has kind of fallen off the map over time. But these are places where we also have really competitive governor’s races going on. And so that makes it all that much more important that we work to break these Republican supermajorities for folks in the state.

Dan Pfeiffer:
I think people have a general sense that electing more Democrats to office is good. No matter the office, like given a choice to pick a Democrat, at least a lot of people listening are watching this right now. But maybe, you know, help explain why right now state legislative offices matter for people’s lives.

In 2022, there was obviously a huge focus on this related to in response to Dobbs. Obviously, that still is out there. It’s still something people are talking about and working on. But what are the big issues that state legislators are dealing with right now that we need people who can push progressive value to push back against fascism or MAGA or whatever else?

Sarah Curmi:
Yeah, so I think making sure that we have power in these chambers is very critical as we enter into the presidential election. I know we’re still focused on 2026 and rightly so, but the presidential election is right around the corner. And we want to make sure that it’s easier for folks to vote all across the country. And state legislatures have a huge impact and make decisions every day around voting rights and access to the ballot box.

Beyond that, they also, in most states, draw the lines around redistricting for themselves. It’s something like 300 congressional seats are impacted by state legislatures and over 6,000 state legislative seats drawn by state legislatures. So they have a huge impact on how these lines are drawn.

And I think one thing we have seen this cycle is that redistricting isn’t just every 10 years anymore.

Dan Pfeiffer:
I know I told you to ignore the battleground states earlier. I’m going to revert that here. But as people are looking about where to get involved, where to focus their attention, what are the states where Democrats have a real chance to either take the majority, create a supermajority, or are just trying to hold on to a majority? What are the key ones for folks to watch?

Sarah Curmi:
Yeah, we have real opportunity to build democratic trifectas in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Arizona. Pennsylvania, even now, at the beginning of the cycle, we weren’t so sure just because it’s a big, expensive state that that Senate would be expensive. But now the environment is looking more and more positive.

And so really between all those states, we flip 22 seats, just 22 seats in those states. We can get five Democratic trifectas that would put 42.5 million more folks in. And then talking about breaking Republican supermajorities, in Indiana, it’s just four seats.

Sarah Curmi:
Kansas, it’s five seats. Ohio, it’s six seats. The New Hampshire Senate is just one seat. Same with the North Carolina Senate. The Iowa House, just one seat puts those chambers over the edge to break Republican supermajorities.

Dan Pfeiffer:
And in so just as people are as the candidates are out there campaigning, what are the issues that are resonating? I mean, I assume affordability is one of them. It’s been the dominant political issue for at least the last five years in American politics. Anything else that our folks are really focusing on or you’re seeing that is moving voters?

Sarah Curmi:
Yeah, I mean, I think obviously affordability is hugely important. And I think that’s another area where state legislatures have, you know, a real opportunity and a real impact.

Here in Michigan, they once again work to negotiate to make sure kids have free lunch at schools. That’s hugely impactful for families. Earned income tax credit. All of these pieces and setting the minimum wage is done by states. The federal minimum wage hasn’t changed in years. So we have a real opportunity to make an impact in folks’ lives on affordability by flipping these seats and flipping these chambers.

And it’s a lot cheaper to do that, this is much more affordable than one U.S. Senate seat.

Dan Pfeiffer:
Yeah, let’s talk about that, actually, because as everyone who listens to this is bombarded with 10,000 text messages a week with horribly plaintive pleas for money from candidates who have no shot of winning to candidates who have money coming out of their ears to scam PACs.

Just maybe talk a little bit about how the efficiency of donating to a state legislative race as opposed to a Senate race or a presidential race. Not that you shouldn’t donate to those either, but if you think about impact per dollar, why state legislative races matter so much.

Sarah Curmi:
Yeah, to be clear, it’s a both and. And Republicans have been doing both and for years. They did Project REDMAP in 2010, and that’s why they’ve had the success at the state legislative level. And Democrats have been late to the party.

That’s exactly why States Win was founded, because our founders looked around and said, no, we’re focused here. And this is where we can make a huge impact for the biggest bang for our buck. We can, you know, flip these seats are a fraction of the cost. So grassroots donors, which is our volunteers, mobilize grassroots donors and grassroots volunteers to make these phone calls, to raise money.

Last year alone in 2025, our volunteers raised $45,000 on average for our state legislative candidates. I was a state legislative campaign manager in my early days. I would have been absolutely thrilled to get that kind of influx into my state legislative race. And it makes a huge difference for these folks.

Dan Pfeiffer:
You know, it was a longtime criticism of the Democratic Party for many years going back to as far as I can remember that Democrats did not pay enough attention to state legislative races. We were very focused on presidential races primarily, but also Senate races, but that we were ignoring down ballot.

After Trump won the first time in 2017, there was a shift in mentality. I first became acquainted with your organization in Virginia in 2017 when I was meeting people from California and across the country who had come to campaign for Virginia state legislative candidates. If you had asked someone in 2010, the idea that someone would be campaigning, flying across the country to campaign for a state legislative candidate was shocking. But there was this intense focus on it.

As I mentioned, there was in 2022 as well, both around responding to Dobbs and protecting abortion access in this country, but also the idea that Trump was going to try to steal the election. And therefore, we needed to have state legislatures who could certify electoral results and send electors to Congress.

Has that focus from the broader political conversation and the donor community stayed in Trump 2.0? Or do you think Democrats have lost a little bit of focus on something so important?

Sarah Curmi:
I think, you know, folks, I think folks recognize that it’s important. And certainly when I have these conversations, folks will agree and they totally understand it. I think we’re still in a space where we’re working to make sure we’re resourced to the adequate level at this level of ballot.

Dan Pfeiffer:
I’m a little alarmed that you might have just suggested I was mainstream media, but we’re just going to put that aside for a second.

Sarah Curmi:
No, I was trying to create a comparison.

Dan Pfeiffer:
Okay, I feel better now. I won’t hang up immediately. But I think we can end here, but for the folks who are listening today and they have been sufficiently compelled by what I found to be a very compelling message about the importance of these races, how can they support your organization?

Sarah Curmi:
Thanks for the question. Yes, please feel free to visit stateswin.org, our website. You can sign up to volunteer, get involved with us there. You can follow us on socials, on Substack. And of course, if you are so moved, we would love to have your contributions, your support. We are really working hard to make sure that we leverage every single opportunity across the map this year. And we’ve got a really great chance to do so.

So I appreciate all of your support and appreciate you, Dan, for having me on today.

Dan Pfeiffer:
Of course. And I say to everyone listening here and reading this later on that there really are a few better ways to make an impact than to do it at the state legislative level. I think this is a very smart way to spend your political money if you were fortunate enough to have it.

So, Sarah, thank you so much. Good luck in this very busy, very chaotic election year.

As we approach the halfway mark of President Trump’s disastrous second term, candidates, the media, the political establishment, and voters are already thinking about who will follow him into the White House. And after the devastation Trump has caused, Democrats have good reason to focus on how we ensure we win the White House back in 2028. It’s a critical fight–and one we start to win by focusing on state legislatures in 2026.

As the leader of States Win, I know there are many reasons to focus on state legislatures every cycle. As we have seen since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, they can determine which rights we have, or they can take them away. They impact our schools, safety in our communities, health care, taxes, and so much more. They are also responsible for some of the rare progressive wins in the last couple of years: from New Mexico providing universal no-cost childcare to Maine covering IVF to Virginia passing family leave.

But while state legislative races can seem far removed from a presidential campaign, who we elect this cycle to those offices will have a major impact on who wins the White House.

And recent months have shown us again and again that state legislatures hold the pen in many states when it comes to congressional lines. In their recent decision in Louisiana v. Callais, the Supreme Court has effectively overturned the federal Voting Rights Act, giving state legislatures the power to undermine the impact of voters of color. In a dissenting opinion, Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan argued the decision’s consequences “are likely to be far-reaching and grave” and that in states still impacted by the Voting Rights Act, “minority voters can now be cracked out of the electoral process.”

Critically, state legislatures can make it harder or easier for people to vote, depending on who you elect. In recent years, we have seen some states limit voting by mail or early voting sites, turn election processes over to partisan actors, make it harder to register voters or make it easier to kick voters off the rolls. At the same time, other states have worked to expand voting access by extending early or mail voting time and locations, establishing state Voting Rights Acts, and making it easier to register voters. States will also be the ones to decide how they will stand up to voter intimidation, whether they want to follow Trump’s orders to turn over unredacted voter rolls, and whether they will try to stop law enforcement from being at polling sites for no reason.

Who we elect determines all of this, and state legislatures are taking action every day. According to the Brennan Center, in the first five months of 2026, nine states have enacted restrictive voting laws, while six states have enacted expansive voting laws. During the 2025-26 cycle, states have already enacted a record number of restrictive laws, passing the previous record for a full cycle in just May of 2026.

And in a presidential race that could be a toss-up, every electoral college vote matters, and states legislatures can change how electoral college votes are allocated. In the unlikely (but still possible) event of an electoral college tie, the makeup of the House determines the winner, and as we have learned, many state legislatures are willing to change those rules to suit their partisan needs.

These midterm elections represent our best and last opportunity to build progressive power at the state level before the 2028 elections. With Trump’s approval dropping to record lows and voters wanting change, Democrats have an opportunity to secure trifectas in several battleground states around the country, including Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and to make real progress in other states. But we must act now.

The road to the White House runs through state capital buildings. This cycle, we need to make sure that we have paved that road with progressive lawmakers who will do the work.

For years, national Democrats have been fighting the same battle on the same terrain.

Every election cycle, hundreds of millions of dollars pour into a familiar set of battleground states. The goal is to win a handful of marquee races and stop the worst outcomes.

But there is a consequence to concentrating so much attention in so few places: large parts of the country have effectively been written off.

The cost of shrinking the map

When the DNC’s post-election autopsy was released, much of the conversation focused on what was missing from the report. But to us, one finding stood out: Voters are tired of watching red states be politically abandoned by the Democratic Party. The report said:

Worse, Republicans have been relentless at the state policy level, reversing worker protections, enacting restrictions on voting, gutting essential services that Americans have paid for and depend on for their quality of life, and denying pathways of opportunity to and advancement to those most in need. While state legislative Democrats combat these changes when and where they can, in too many states they lack the legislative numbers to stop Republicans.

Voters in these states may see Democratic policy as the preferable alternative to Republicans authoritarian advancement, but the inability to offer any substantive effective electoral opposition impacts perspectives and opinions about the party.

Republicans have invested patiently and relentlessly in state legislatures, particularly in states where Democrats assumed the map was out of reach.

The result is a political landscape in the South and Midwest where Republican supermajorities dominate. A supermajority allows one party to override governors, ignore public opinion, and pass sweeping legislation with little fear of accountability. In many states, supermajorities have enabled attacks on reproductive freedom, weakened labor protections, undermined public education, and made it harder for communities to hold elected officials accountable.

A handful of seats could shift the balance of power

What makes this situation especially frustrating is how close many of these states actually are.

In Ohio, Kansas, Indiana, and New Hampshire combined, Democrats only need to flip 17 state legislative seats to break four Republican supermajorities.

Seventeen seats. Not seventeen chambers. Not seventeen statewide offices. Seventeen state legislative districts spread across four states.

For all the discussion about rebuilding Democratic power, this is one of the clearest opportunities in the country.

Yet these races rarely attract national attention. They do not generate cable news coverage. They are not the focus of presidential campaigns. Most voters outside their districts will never hear about them.

That is precisely why they matter.

Our efforts prove that relatively small investments in overlooked legislative races can produce outsized results. Last year, States Win helped end Republican supermajorities in both the Iowa and Mississippi Senates by investing early in three candidates who ultimately flipped their seats.

The strategic opportunities right now

The political environment heading into 2026 suggests similar opportunities may be emerging.

Historically, midterm elections tend to serve as a referendum on the party in power. The president’s party almost always loses ground as voters look to impose a check on Washington. But the conditions developing ahead of 2026 appear especially favorable for Democrats.

Closed primary data shows Democratic voters participating at higher rates than in comparable midterm cycles. At the same time, public polling indicates that Donald Trump’s approval ratings have declined significantly from where they stood just six months ago, particularly on economic issues and the cost of living.

That matters because state legislatures are often where voters feel the consequences of economic policy most directly. Decisions about housing, health care, education, infrastructure, and worker protections are made in state capitals every day.

Since January 2025, Republicans have failed to flip a single state legislative seat. Meanwhile, a growing number of Republican incumbents are dropping out of their re-elections, likely fearing these trends.

For example in Wisconsin, Democrats need just two seats to take control of the State Senate, yet one in five Republican legislators have retired rather than face voters in November.

None of this guarantees Democratic victories. But it does suggest something important: the Republican grip on many state legislatures is not nearly as secure as it appears.

The path to ending one-party rule

At States Win, we are taking a serious look at the opportunities we have to disrupt unchecked Republican political power. Our research indicates it’s possible to break GOP supermajorities in Indiana, Kansas, New Hampshire, and Ohio this cycle – a few strategic states that national Democrats have overlooked for years.

We’ve already identified strong candidates who we believe have a real path to victory, and our support could make the difference.

If you’ve read this far and believe in this mission, we would love your support to make this plan possible. Whether it’s a donation of whatever is feasible for you or simply sharing this post, every action helps.

As the 2026 midterms are heating up, it’s clear that Republicans are no longer heading towards Election Day with the unstoppable momentum many expected after 2024. Since Trump’s re-election, Democrats have flipped 30 state legislative seats, including in deep-red states like Arkansas, Mississippi, and Texas. Republicans have not flipped a single seat. The message from voters is becoming impossible to ignore: people are fed up with far-right extremism and ready to fight back in 2026.

Nine states, in particular, are poised to define the balance of power in the midterms. These battlegrounds will determine whether Democrats can flip chambers, defend razor-thin majorities, break Republican supermajorities, and build governing power that lasts far beyond a single election cycle.

The stakes are so high that both States Win, which focuses on building long-term Democratic power in state legislatures, and the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) are heavily targeting these states as central to the fight for power in 2026.

Republicans themselves have made clear just how much is on the line. In a recent memo, the RSLC warned:

“If Republicans lose even a handful of these seats, Democrats will gain the power to redraw congressional maps in multiple battleground states, locking in structural advantages that could last the rest of the decade and dramatically narrowing the path to a Republican House majority in Congress.”

If Democrats want to compete and win in 2026, these are the nine states that cannot be ignored.

Arizona

Once considered a reliable Republican stronghold, Arizona is now considered a true swing state, with Democrats flipping key statewide offices and presidential votes in recent years. Heading into the 2026 midterms, control of both the legislature and governorship is up for grabs. Flipping both the Arizona House and Senate is within reach, which would mean safeguarding reproductive freedom, climate action, and voting rights while being able to support the Democratic governor’s agenda. Democrats need to flip four seats in the Arizona House and three seats in the Arizona Senate to win control of both bodies.

Georgia

Another former red state that has become firmly purple, Georgia has opportunities for Democrats up and down the ballot in 2026. In addition to an open governor’s race and the re-election of Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, all 180 seats in the Georgia legislature are up for election. Despite gerrymandered maps from the Republicans, in 2024, Georgia Democrats netted two additional seats in 2024, and hope to build on that momentum with a positive environment and a competitive election.

Iowa

Iowa is shaping up to be a major political battleground in 2026. There is an open governor’s race with a strong Democratic contender, an open U.S. Senate seat, and competitive House seats in play. If Democrats can sustain turnout and build on special election gains, they could transform what has historically been a red state into a critical battleground across races up and down the ticket.

Michigan

After Democrats secured a trifecta in 2022 for the first time in nearly 40 years, they wasted no time delivering major victories for working people and civil rights. In a state with deep labor roots, Michigan became the first state in nearly six decades to repeal so-called “right-to-work” laws, delivering a major win for unions and workers. Democrats also expanded protections for LGBTQ+ people, protected the fundamental right to an abortion after voters approved Prop 3, strengthened voting rights, passed common-sense gun safety laws, and invested in public schools and infrastructure.

Republicans took the state House back in 2024, which increased gridlock and slowed progress in Lansing due to the divided government. Democrats have an opportunity in November to hold or expand their razor-thin margin in the Senate, keep the governors’ mansion and then flip only three seats to win the Michigan House and secure a trifecta.

Minnesota

Minnesota Democrats secured a trifecta in 2022 for the first time in a decade, and used it to deliver historic victories including free breakfast and lunch for all public school students, protections for abortion access, expanded voting and worker rights, and making the state a refuge for trans people at a time when historic waves of anti-trans legislation were moving through Republican-led states . Currently, the DFL holds a narrow majority in the Senate and shares control of an evenly split House, margins that were both upheld by Democratic special election wins by States Win-endorsed candidates. In the midterm elections, Democrats will be working to protect our incumbents, take full control of the House, expand our majority in the state Senate and hold the governors’ mansion.

Nevada

While the state has a Republican governor, Democrats control the Nevada state House and Senate. Nevada is one of the few states in the country with a majority-women legislature, with Democratic women leading the way. With a competitive gubernatorial race, Democrats have a chance to not just win a trifecta but build a supermajority in the House to protect a Democratic governor’s veto or be able to overturn a Republican veto.

Pennsylvania

In this perennial battleground state, Democrats hold the state House and the governor’s mansion, but Republicans have the majority in the state Senate. In 2024, legislative Democrats out-performed the top of the ticket and held their one-seat majority in the state House, despite losing the U.S. Senate seat and the presidential vote. In 2026, with Trump’s approval reaching new lows and a popular Democratic governor running for re-election, Democrats have the chance to expand their majority in the House, flip the Senate and build a Democratic trifecta.

North Carolina

This state will be a defining battleground in the 2026 midterms, with control of the legislature and an open U.S. Senate seat on the line. Popular former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is running for the U.S. Senate seat, bringing name recognition and attention to the top of the ticket. In 2024, Democrats ended the Republican supermajority in the House while holding the line in the Senate, preserving Democratic Governor Josh Stein’s ability to veto Republican attacks on reproductive rights, public schools, and voting access. Flipping vulnerable districts and defending key incumbents is the only way to keep Democrats strong enough to stop the GOP’s extreme agenda and build power.

Wisconsin

To understand what real political opportunity looks like heading into the 2026 midterms, Wisconsin is one of the best examples. After years of extreme Republican gerrymandering that locked in GOP control of the legislature, fairer maps went into effect in 2024. Democrats are now just two seats away from flipping the State Senate and five seats away from flipping the Assembly, putting Democratic legislative majorities within reach for the first time in over a decade. Winning in Wisconsin will not only determine the balance of power in Madison, but also shape the national political landscape in 2026.

At States Win, we’re proud to be the only national grassroots organization focused on winning state legislatures by directly supporting candidates and mobilizing a powerful volunteer network. Last year alone, our model helped secure a Democratic trifecta in Virginia, break Republican supermajorities in the Iowa and Mississippi Senates, and hold the line in Minnesota.

This year, we’re going toe-to-toe with the Republican State Leadership Committee and other major Republican groups as the fight for power in the states intensifies.

Our strategy starts with these nine battleground states that have become critical to winning power up and down the ballot and shaping the future of the country. To learn more and join our work, click here.

Much has been written lately about the falling birth rates in the United States. For many of us, this trend is not so surprising. Women still earn just 53-83 cents for every dollar men make, while on average, spending 2.5 times more hours every day on unpaid care work than men. Meanwhile, childcare costs are approximately 40% more than they were just 10 years ago. But as the Trump administration pushes out-of-touch policies like the economically illiterate “baby bonus” and Title X restrictions, they are conveniently ignoring these and other structural barriers that hurt women and families.

How do we get policies and programs that actually address the needs of working mothers? The answer is simple: we must stop making assumptions about moms and start electing them.

As states increasingly determine the policies that shape everyday life – including childcare, education, reproductive rights, healthcare, housing, and labor protections – it is vital that they have leaders who understand the practical realities facing working families.

But the perspectives of mothers with young children are significantly underrepresented in state legislatures all across the country.

According to research from Vote Mama Foundation, among the 7,386 state legislators in the United States, only 582 are moms with children under 18. That means just 7.9% of all state legislators are mothers actively raising young kids, despite the fact that women living with minor children make up 18.2% of the adult population. To achieve proportional representation, we would need to more than double the number of moms of young children serving in state legislatures.

Running and serving while raising small children is uniquely difficult within a political system designed by and for men before women even had the right to vote. Campaign schedules revolve around nights and weekends, which means that candidates with caregiving responsibilities—mostly moms—are often forced to choose between staying home with their kids or doing the campaign work they need to do to win, unless they can get childcare. Legislative sessions stretch unpredictably and often require lawmakers to spend weeks or months away from home. Many capitol buildings still lack basic accommodations such as lactation rooms and adequate women’s bathrooms that most modern workplaces now consider standard, and many legislatures operate without formal parental leave policies or the ability for legislators to vote remotely.

And yet when mothers of young children do gain power, the policy results can be transformative.

In 2022, New Mexico voters approved a constitutional amendment guaranteeing funding for early childhood education and care. The state has since implemented the nation’s first free universal childcare program – a groundbreaking policy that dramatically expanded access for working families while helping stabilize the childcare workforce.

New Mexico has one of the few female-majority legislatures in the country. Women legislators there have consistently elevated issues that American policymakers have long treated as secondary: childcare, paid leave, maternal health, education, and economic security for families.

In Virginia, Governor Abigail Spanberger recently signed the “Momnibus” bill package, which includes measures to expand paid family medical leave to 12 weeks,

partially fund a state childcare program, provide training that addresses Black maternal mortality, and require insurance companies to cover postpartum depression screenings.

It’s no coincidence that in 2025, Virginia elected more Democratic women to the House of Delegates than the entire Republican caucus combined, along with the first female governor of the Commonwealth – who also has school-age children of her own.

For decades, America has treated childcare as a private burden to be solved individually rather than a public good that economically benefits our entire country. We lose more than $172 billion a year in economic activity because of the lack of childcare. Mothers of young children understand viscerally how unsustainable this American model of care has become.

If we want better policy outcomes, we need legislatures that better resemble the public.

The irony is that our communities depend heavily on mothers, but our political institutions often make it nearly impossible for them to have a hand in the policies that govern them. Mothers organize communities, volunteer in schools, coordinate mutual aid, manage households, and frequently serve as the connective tissue of civic life. Yet when it comes to formal political power, they remain dramatically underrepresented. This is by design.

Political parties, donors, advocacy organizations, and voters all have a role to play in making elected office more accessible to parents of young children. Campaign Funds for Childcare should be authorized in all 50 states. (Vote Mama Lobby has already gotten this approved in 40 states and DC!) Legislative schedules should reflect modern family realities. Younger mothers should be actively recruited to run.

We do not have a shortage of qualified mothers capable of governing. We have political structures that have failed to embrace them.

Earlier this week, voters in Virginia approved a constitutional amendment to allow new Congressional maps ahead of the midterms in November. The move opens the door for Democrats to gain as many as four more seats in Congress, mitigating the aggressive redistricting efforts that Republicans pushed through last year in states like Texas, North Carolina, and Missouri. In fact, it may mean that the “redistricting arms race” sparked by the GOP results in a net difference of zero for either party – or even a slight Democratic advantage.

The vote in Virginia was a reminder of something too often overlooked in national politics: the balance of power in Congress is shaped long before voters ever cast a ballot in a federal race. State legislatures draw Congressional district maps, set election rules and procedures, and determine how fairly (or unfairly) voters are represented. It’s something Republicans figured out decades ago – the party that controls state legislatures controls Congress.

The ability for Virginia to take this step was only possible because Democrats secured total governing power at the state level in the Commonwealth’s 2025 general election; holding the legislature and winning the governorship. Those victories didn’t happen by accident. They were the result of sustained, strategic investment in state legislative races for years.

In fact, the 2023 elections in Virginia were an even more pivotal moment that laid the groundwork for this redistricting win. In 2023, Democrats took back control of the Virginia House of Delegates – and secured full control of the Virginia legislature.

There’s a straight line connecting state legislative wins in Virginia to Democrats gaining four more seats in Congress:

• 2023: Critical victories flipped control of the House of Delegates to Democrats while maintaining control of the Virginia Senate.

• Pre-Election 2025: Narrow Democratic majorities in the Virginia House and Virginia Senate passed a new constitutional amendment to temporarily respond to mid-decade redistricting in other states.

• 2025: Continued investment helped flip the Governorship and expand the Democratic majority in the House

• 2026 (now): A Democratic trifecta made action on Congressional maps possible

This moment would not have been possible without years of long-term power building. Since 2017, States Win and its community have helped elect dozens of Democrats in Virginia, steadily flipping seats and building toward a governing trifecta strong enough to act decisively.

Last year alone, States Win supported 17 candidates in Virginia, and every one of them won. Those victories flipped key seats, secured governing power, and helped build one of the most diverse legislative coalitions in the country.

And Virginia’s leadership hasn’t just acted on redistricting. Lawmakers in the Commonwealth have already begun advancing policies that directly impact people’s lives, on issues ranging from reproductive rights to voting access to economic security.

The amendment in Virginia is a reminder that control of Congress isn’t just decided every two years – it’s built over time, in statehouses across the country.

Legal challenges may continue, and the political stakes remain high. But one thing is already clear: voters in Virginia have demonstrated that state-level power can decide the outcome of federal races, even to which party controls the U.S. Congress.

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We’ve all gotten the texts:

RUSH US A DONATION, or democracy ends at midnight!
Send just $5, and your donation will be TRIPLED!
I’m FAMOUS NAME, and I’m asking you personally: can you give $12 now?

The sheer volume of these texts has annoyed most of us at some point. But perhaps it’s also made you wonder: Does my $5 really matter to a multi-million dollar campaign?

Chipping in $5 or $15 seems to only guarantee that you’ll receive even more texts. And what is $10 compared to the millions of dollars of dark money being spent through corporate PACs? Can a single small dollar donation even make a dent in federal campaign budgets where just one poll can cost $40,000?

A system plagued by big money

In fact, the barrage of campaign texting is a symptom of a much larger issue. Federal campaigns have become bloated behemoths operating in a convoluted and often opaque legal environment. These campaigns cost an incredible amount of money, and there is little transparency over where the money comes from or where it goes.

This all leads to a grim reality on the campaign trail. Candidates must spend 25-30 hours a week on “fundraising call time” – personally calling people who can afford to give thousands after they hang up the phone. This is true even for incumbents running relatively safe reelection campaigns. That’s right, rather than attending to constituents or passing meaningful legislation, sitting members of Congress must sit at a desk with a finance staffer, calling through a list of major donors every single day.

A few numbers may give you a better idea of the scale of this problem. A candidate running in a competitive Congressional race will raise between $4 million on the very low end to more than $8 million in one cycle alone. If they win, they are rewarded with a two-year term filled with even more fundraising.

In one recent example, Will Rollins raised more than $12 million to lose to Ken Calvert for a second time in California’s 41st Congressional District. And that contest didn’t even make the top 5 most expensive races in 2024.

The Citizens United of it all

Sophisticated readers may already know that the legal limit that any single donor may give to a candidate is just $3,500 per election. That means the millions of dollars raised by candidates themselves must be reported to the Federal Elections Commission along with the amount, name, occupation, and city of every individual donor. In the industry, these donations are referred to as “hard side” money.

This is where the aptly nicknamed “dark money” comes into play. Dark money funds flow through entities like Super PACs, and insiders refer to it and other independent expenditures (IEs) as the “soft side.” Thanks to Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, soft side money generally has few or no restrictions. Wealthy individuals, corporations, and other groups can donate and spend essentially unlimited amounts of money in service of getting “their” candidate elected.

In 2024, the big money problem was the worst it’s ever been. According to a New York Times analysis on general money in the 2024 cycle, billionaires contributed a staggering 19% of the money in federal races, despite being only 0.00034% of the US population.

Chasing dollars that go nowhere

How do I know all this? I was the young person tasked with raising the massive budget that federal candidates need to run viable campaigns. Any way that money can be raised for a Congressional candidate, I’ve done: general campaign committees, victory funds, joint fundraising agreements, legal/recount funds… I was even a volunteer fundraiser for House Majority PAC (a Super PAC closely aligned with House Democratic leadership).

The money I fought for tooth and nail went largely to overpaid political consultants, who have power and get paid precisely because there is no longevity in a political campaign. These consultants are the powerbrokers who disseminate the knowledge and connections that make or break a campaign.

Everyone I’ve ever discussed this with is appalled. I’m not alone – a recent Pew study showed that more than eight-in-ten Americans say that the cost of political campaigns makes it hard for good people to run for office. Many even wrote in an open-ended answer that money is the biggest problem in politics.

Reigning in billionaire donors won’t start at the top

The Supreme Court has made it clear that they have little interest in placing limits on contributions or expenditures at the federal level, and it seems unlikely that Congress will regulate itself voluntarily. But states define their own campaign finance laws for statewide and state legislative offices, and they can vary widely.

In Virginia, there are no limits; while Minnesota has a $1,000 limit per “election segment.” In Alaska, a certain percentage of contributions need to come from Alaskans. The variations go on and on.

Montana recently tried to counter the infamous Citizens United decision via a very popular ballot initiative, and despite being held up by Montana’s Attorney General and Supreme Court, it will go to voters this November. States continue to be the best path forward for meaningful campaign finance laws and enforcement.

Overall, with a few exceptions, states have lower limits than the federal limit, and there are far fewer IE (soft money) players in the state legislative game. It’s also worth noting that soft money is powerful only because it is large, not because it is efficient at being helpful to the candidate.

Grassroots power makes a difference at the state level

With lower limits and smaller campaign budgets, state legislative races offer an environment that favors grassroots donors. Small dollar donors tend to be much more diverse than large donors in terms of gender, ethnicity, and income, and are actually more representative of America. Lower limits also mean races that are more competitive, as incumbents have less of an advantage.

But state legislative candidates face an uphill battle. They have smaller constituencies, don’t get the news coverage Congress does, and don’t necessarily have the moneyed connections that many Congressional candidates do.

One example is States Win alumna and current candidate , running for reelection to the state Senate in Iowa. States Win volunteers raised more than $18,000 in small-dollar contributions, made more than 23,000 calls to Iowa voters, and secured 413 vote plans for Drey in just three weeks. She went on to win by 797 votes and end the GOP supermajority in the chamber.

Small dollars have the biggest effect going straight to individual candidates, rather than going to caucuses or parties. Caucuses are invested in all kinds of activity, but donating to a highly strategic candidate means your money goes directly towards a seat that could change the power balance in chambers this cycle.

So, should I donate to those annoying texts?

The next time you get one of those texts begging for $5 by midnight, check the sender and do the math. Your $25 to a federal campaign is a rounding error for a $10 million budget in an environment dominated by billionaires, and it will disappear into a budget so large that nobody will ever notice it arrived.

State legislative races are a completely different game. Your donation is a real share of a really tough campaign. It goes to a candidate who is knocking on doors in their own neighborhood, running because they actually want to serve the people they live next to.

And the stakes couldn’t be higher: these are the races that decide who holds the majority, who draws the maps after 2030, and whether a state passes laws that protect abortion access, healthcare access, voting rights, and more – or strips them away.

States Win is building slates of candidates in exactly these races: the ones where a few thousand dollars and a few hundred volunteers can change a chamber. Your money actually matters here, and I promise we won’t text you about it at midnight.

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In 2025, States Win supported 17 candidates in Virginia, helping Democrats deliver a historic set of victories that reshaped the state’s political landscape. The election flipped 13 seats from red to blue, securing a Democratic trifecta and building one of the most diverse governing coalitions in the country.

Voters elected a record number of women, many of them historic firsts. Governor Abigail Spanberger is the first woman governor of the Commonwealth, Lieutenant Governor Ghazala Hashmi is the first Muslim woman in statewide office in U.S. history, and States Win alumna May Nivar is the first Chinese-American elected to the General Assembly. There are also now a record number of women in the House of Delegates, with more women serving than all Republicans.

Now these ground-breakers are prepared to make history once again.

The last time Democrats held full control of the legislature and the governorship, they made history by becoming the first state in the South to abolish the death penalty, passed some of the most notable gun safety reforms in the region, and set a path to 100% clean electricity by 2045.

Which is why all eyes are on Virginia’s latest Democratic trifecta to see how far the Commonwealth can go in delivering progress.

In the first legislative session, nearly 2,400 bills were introduced (over 1,500 in the House of Delegates and more than 800 in the State Senate). Governor Spanberger has until April 13 to act on the legislation that cleared the General Assembly, and most laws will take effect on July 1.

So what did this trifecta deliver, and what does it signal about where Virginia is headed next?

Here are five takeaways from this year’s legislative session.

Constitutional Amendments Were A Top Priority

The Virginia legislature advanced several critical constitutional amendments this session. In Virginia, amending the constitution is a multi-step process. Lawmakers have to pass the same amendment in two separate legislative sessions, with an election in between. Then voters get the final say on the ballot.

Here’s an overview of the amendments that the legislature moved forward this session:

Protecting abortion access: After the tragic Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, Virginia became the only state in the South with broad access to abortion. This amendment would enshrine reproductive rights in the state constitution, making it more difficult to reverse in the future. Every Republican lawmaker has opposed it, and GOP leaders have backed restrictions like near-total bans or a 15-week limit without exceptions for fetal anomalies.

Marriage equality: Another amendment would remove a 2006 ban on same-sex marriage from Virginia’s constitution. That language hasn’t been enforceable since Obergefell v. Hodges, but it’s still written into state law. Supporters want to remove it in case the Supreme Court revisits marriage equality in the future – something Justice Clarence Thomas has suggested.

Expanding voting rights: A third amendment would automatically restore voting rights to people with felony convictions once they’ve completed their sentences. Right now, Virginia is one of the few states where people can permanently lose their voting rights unless the governor restores them, a process critics say is inconsistent and unclear.

New maps for Congress: This amendment would allow the Virginia legislature to temporarily redraw Congressional maps for the 2026 midterms, before returning to a regular redistricting cycle after the U.S. Census in 2030. Using the proposed maps would allow Virginia to help counteract President Trump’s egregious power-grab, as GOP-controlled states have attempted to gerrymander Republicans into maintaining control of the U.S. House. (More on this important amendment below.)

Redistricting Is In The Voters’ Hands

Over the course of the last year, President Trump has strong-armed states with GOP-controlled legislatures to perform mid-year redistricting that would gerrymander Republicans into holding the U.S. House.

In response to this unprecedented power grab, Virginia joined other states in fighting back. The state legislature passed an amendment which allows Virginians to vote on whether or not the General Assembly can redistrict once before the midterms, and then return to “Virginia’s standard redistricting process…after the 2030 census.”

This amendment, currently up for a popular vote, would level the playing field for the 2026 election while protecting the state’s bipartisan redistricting process for the future.

States Win alumni are speaking out in support of the amendment. Delegate Kathy Tran said, “We must be clear-eyed about what is at stake when districts are rigged in other states: Virginians’ voices are diminished in Washington on issues that directly affect our communities, like protecting federal workers and funding for Medicaid, SNAP, and public education.”

Delegate Michael Feggans, a U.S. Air Force veteran, said his time serving made him care even more deeply about the democratic process. “I also took an oath to defend the Constitution. That oath didn’t end just when I took off the uniform,” he said.

Up Front and (Data) Center

Data centers are a growing political flashpoint in many states, and Virginia is the prime example. In fact, a recent POLITICO poll found that nearly half of Americans expect the rapid expansion of data centers to become a campaign issue in their communities within the next five years.

Virginia is the state with the highest concentration of data centers in the country, and they took center stage during the most recent legislative session.

Lawmakers introduced dozens of bills aimed at regulating data centers across the Commonwealth. Among them, States Win alumnus Senator Kannan Srinivasan introduced SB 553, which would require greater transparency around how much water data centers draw from local utilities. The bill passed both chambers and is now under consideration by Governor Spanberger.

States Win alumna Senator Danica Roem sponsored SB 94, which requires data centers to submit a site assessment report in order to rezone. She described the legislation as a first step toward stronger guardrails on where data centers can be located and how they impact surrounding communities. But Senator Roem described the bill as “the bare minimum” and vowed to push for stronger action.

The General Assembly ended the 2026 session without passing a biennial budget, with negotiations still stalled in part over data center tax policy. Senate President Pro Tempore Louise Lucas has made clear she will not advance a budget to the governor without addressing tax exemptions for data centers, which are currently set to expire in 2035.

According to a Climate Power and Blue Rose Research study, 48% of voters say the burdens data centers place on communities outweigh the benefits, compared to just 22% who say the benefits outweigh the downsides.

This is not the last time Virginia, or the country, will grapple with the political consequences of the data center boom.

Democrats Are Taking Action On Ice

While federal immigration policy is largely outside the control of state legislatures, Virginia Democrats used their new trifecta to draw a clear line: state and local resources should not be used to carry out federal immigration enforcement, and communities should not be put at greater risk because of it.

Within hours of taking office on January 17, Governor Abigail Spanberger rescinded former Governor Glenn Youngkin’s executive order pushing Virginia State Police and the Department of Corrections to enter into 287(g) agreements with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Those agreements effectively deputize state and local officers to carry out aspects of federal immigration enforcement, including identifying and detaining noncitizens.

Ending those agreements was a clear policy shift after years of Republican leadership in Richmond. It also came at a moment when immigration enforcement is escalating nationwide under President Donald Trump’s renewed push for mass deportations.

Lawmakers also moved forward policies to prohibit immigration enforcement at courthouses, aiming to ensure that people can access the legal system without fear. They also backed legislation to restrict new 287(g) agreements, reinforcing that Virginia agencies should not be pulled into federal deportation efforts.

At the same time, legislators passed measures like House Bill 1161, introduced by States Win alumna Delegate Kathy Tran, to set clearer limits on how state and local agencies share sensitive personal data. The bill creates guardrails around when information can be shared with other governments, including federal agencies, with the goal of protecting residents’ privacy and preventing that data from being used to target immigrant communities.

Affordability Is More Than A Talking Point

While Trump’s war in Iran drives up gas prices, Democrats in Virginia have worked hard to make life more affordable for their communities.

Union wins: In what’s being called the biggest win for workers in the Commonwealth in decades, the Virginia General Assembly passed House Bill 1263, introduced by States Win Alumna Delegate Kathy Tran. This bill expands collective bargaining for roughly 574,000 public sector workers, ensuring that more state and local employees have a real voice in negotiating their pay, benefits, and working conditions. The bill was backed by a broad coalition of labor and advocacy groups, including the Virginia AFL-CIO, SEIU, the Virginia Education Association, and the Virginia NAACP.

Minimum wage increases: More than 421,000 workers in the Commonwealth are set to see a pay increase after the General Assembly voted to raise the minimum wage incrementally to $15 by January 1, 2028.

Housing justice: Lawmakers also took steps to reduce housing instability. Legislation like HB15 and SB48 strengthen protections for renters by extending the time tenants have to pay overdue rent before facing eviction. According to Princeton University’s Eviction Lab, there were over 135,000 eviction filings in Virginia in the past twelve months. These changes are designed to keep more families housed and prevent short-term financial setbacks from turning into long-term displacement.

Virginia’s Democratic trifecta shows how much progress can be made when we take back power. At States Win, we are working to build power across the country and create more Democratic trifectas this fall. You can read more about our state legislative candidates and our work on our website.

The answer is already showing up in special elections across the country.

Since Trump’s re-election in 2024, Democrats have flipped 28 seats in state legislatures while Republicans have flipped none. Ten of those victories came in special elections in red and blue battleground legislatures across the country.

According to The Downballot’s special elections Big Board for the 2025-26 cycle, the average district holding a special election in 2026 is voting roughly 11 points more Democratic than it did in 2024, and roughly 7 points higher than 2020.

Here are just a few examples of the Democratic upsets in recent special elections:

-> In March 2026, Democrats flipped a Republican-held seat in Arkansas by electing Alex Holladay in a special election for House District 70 — a state Donald Trump has won three times.

-> In January 2026, Democrat and machinists’ union leader Taylor Rehmet flipped a Texas Senate seat in a district Donald Trump carried by 17 points in 2024, winning 57% of the vote despite being heavily outspent by Republicans.

-> In November 2025, States Win candidates Theresa Gillespie Isom, Justin Crosby, and Johnny DuPree flipped seats from red to blue in Mississippi, ending the Republican supermajority in the state Senate.

Special elections are low-turnout, off-cycle contests that measure something simple: which side has enough energy to organize, mobilize voters, and win when attention is scarce. Because of Democrats’ overperformance since the 2024 general election, Republicans are being forced to defend seats they once took for granted.

This is exactly why Republicans are pouring everything they have into the next major special election: a race that could determine control of the Michigan Senate.

In 2022, Democrats flipped the Michigan State Senate for the first time in nearly 40 years, ending decades of Republican control and creating a narrow governing majority. With that majority, lawmakers repealed Michigan’s 1931 abortion ban, strengthened civil rights protections for the LGBTQ+ community, and made Michigan the first state in nearly six decades to repeal the anti-union “right-to-work” laws.

Now that majority hangs on a single race.

In just eight weeks, voters will decide a special election for Michigan’s 35th Senate District. The seat has been vacant since then–state Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet left the legislature to take her seat in the U.S. House.

If Republicans manage to flip the seat, the chamber will be evenly split.

States Win is proud to endorse Democrat Chedrick Greene, a firefighter of nearly 30 years and a Marine Corps reservist running for Michigan’s 35th Senate District. He is running on a platform focused on universal pre-K, common-sense gun safety, good-paying union jobs, and more.

His opponent, Republican Jason Tunney, is backed by Americans for Prosperity and other high-profile Republican leaders. He is campaigning on a platform that includes expanding school voucher programs that could divert public funds from public schools, restoring Michigan’s anti-union “right-to-work” law, and repealing the state’s clean energy mandate requiring utilities to reach 100 percent clean electricity by 2040.

This race has already become a must-watch contest in Michigan and across the country.

Dick DeVos, husband of former U.S. Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, congratulates Republican Jason Tunney.

Democrats may be performing strongly in special elections nationwide, but Michigan is a reminder that momentum can disappear quickly when we take our eyes off the ball. After Democrats won a historic trifecta in 2022, Republicans clawed back control of the Michigan House in the 2024 election. Since then, House Republicans have slowed or blocked progress on priorities like stronger oversight of ICE in communities, the state budget, paid sick leave, and minimum wage.

Holding this seat will preserve the Democratic majority in the Michigan Senate and maintain a critical blue firewall against House Republicans.

But the lesson from Michigan is this: progress only lasts if we defend it.

If Democrats want the momentum we’re seeing in special elections to carry into the midterms, we must fight for this seat with everything we have.

Support Chedrick Greene's Election Today

Recently, Trump’s so-called “border czar” Tom Homan announced he would reduce the ICE “surge” in Minnesota. While the immediate crisis in Minneapolis may be alleviated, the Trump Administration has made it abundantly clear that it will continue to pursue brutal immigration policy wherever possible.

Watching the crackdown in Minneapolis unfold, I was struck by the incredible organization and power of the community response. Of course, headlines quickly filled with the very visible protests as thousands of people took to the streets. But to me, the less visible – but more powerful – response of thousands of community members was more impressive. Neighbors mobilized quickly to deliver food safely to families in hiding, track ICE movements and send warnings, and organize legal representation for people taken by ICE.

The speed and scale of the anti-ICE community response was not spontaneous, it was the result of years of long-term organizing: building relationships and contact lists, trust among neighbors, and training leaders before they are needed in crisis. Long-term community-based organizing is the infrastructure that communities rely on when institutions fail, and it existed in Minneapolis before national attention arrived.

When COVID-19 hit, long-standing neighborhood groups and mutual aid networks pivoted quickly to coordinate grocery deliveries, distribute PPE, and organize financial assistance. After the murder of George Floyd, those same organizing ecosystems organized protest safety teams, legal observers, bail funds, and community patrols. In the aftermath, trauma support and care networks grew.

Another prominent example of the power of long-term organizing is the 1963 March on Washington. Today, protests are typically considered a short-term mobilization strategy. But in 1963, organizing and transporting hundreds of thousands of people from all over the country to Washington, DC took many years of preparation; disciplined organizing by local leaders, churches, student groups, labor unions, and community organizations across the South and beyond.

Long before that day, civil rights leaders throughout the South were holding citizenship classes, building local NAACP and SNCC chapters, training young people in nonviolent resistance, developing bail funds, registering voters despite intimidation and violence, and creating communication networks between cities and states.

The lesson is clear: visible moments of rapid response are built on invisible years of preparation.

This is why we cannot afford to wait for crisis moments to invest in organizations on the ground. Struggling communities do not have the luxury of mobilizing only when the cameras show up, and trust cannot be built at the same speed of a breaking news alert.

Sustained investment allows organizations to build year-round political education spaces, train volunteers and staff in safety and de-escalation tactics, practice deep canvassing, cultivate young leaders, and develop important relationships with local officials.

That is the philosophy behind States Win Action’s State Bridges program. We partner with community-based organizations that build durable civic infrastructure in their states year-round. This year, we are deepening that work with a new slate of grantee partners in Tennessee, North Carolina, Alaska, and Georgia.

In Georgia, youth organizers are building durable political power and cultivating the next generation of civic leaders. In Alaska, policy and media infrastructure is strengthening accountability in a state that is often overlooked nationally. In Tennessee, immigrant led advocates are defending communities and demanding transparency from state officials. In North Carolina, local leaders are organizing around housing, voting access, and economic justice.

If you’re curious to learn more about these incredible organizations, I invite you to join States Win Action for our virtual State Bridges events on February 25 and March 11. We’ll hear directly from the leaders of our partner organizations, and offer a chance to support their work.

For more than a decade, Wisconsin was defined by extreme Republican gerrymandering that locked in legislative control even as Democrats continued to win statewide races. Democratic governors, attorneys general, and senators could win, while the legislature remained effectively out of reach.

What changed was not a wave election or a single charismatic candidate, but a long-term strategy that treated the courts, state legislative races, and on-the-ground organizing as part of the same project.

Chart via Marquette University // Cover image via Justin Sullivan/ Getty Images

→ In 2022, after Roe v. Wade was overturned, Wisconsin voters turned out at 59.8% in the midterms, compared to a 46.2% national average.

→ In 2023, Wisconsin voters elected Judge Janet Protasiewicz to the Supreme Court, securing a 4–3 liberal majority for the first time in fifteen years and creating a real legal path to undo GOP-gerrymandered maps.

→ In 2024, fairer maps went into effect, and the results were undeniable: Democrats flipped ten Assembly seats and gained four seats in the State Senate, breaking the GOP’s long-standing supermajority, effectively ending an era of structurally locked-in control.

→ In April 2025, Justice Susan Crawford won election to an open Supreme Court seat, preserving the liberal majority and securing a progressive court through at least 2028. That same year, the court ruled that Wisconsin’s 1849 abortion ban could not be enforced, protecting abortion access in the state.

Now, looking toward the 2026 midterm elections, Wisconsin stands on the brink of another historic shift. Democrats are just two seats away from flipping the State Senate for the first time in nearly two decades (not counting the short-lived Senate flip after the 2012 recall elections) and five seats away from flipping the Assembly.

With an open gubernatorial race and an engaged electorate, a Democratic trifecta is within reach. This is the kind of once-in-a-generation opportunity that can continue to protect and expand abortion access in Wisconsin while driving the fights for Medicaid expansion, protections for local farmers against corporate agribusiness, public school funding, and so much more.

Too often, Democrats chase quick wins, parachuting into races weeks or even days before an election. Our organization, States Win (formerly Sister District), has been investing in Wisconsin since 2020, endorsing more than a dozen candidates. Our affiliate, States Win Action, has also invested in community organizations such as WISDOM and Citizen Action of Wisconsin, groups rooted in economic, racial, interfaith, and environmental justice.

This strategy of year-round power-building, engaging across issue fights, judicial races, and everyday civic life, is what led to this moment where a Democratic trifecta is within reach. Because these grassroots organizing groups view progress as a long-term project, they are not rushing their neighbors into participation a few weeks before a high-stakes decision. Instead, they engage their communities around the issues affecting their lives and work together to connect how each election fits into sustainable progress.

What Wisconsin demonstrates is the difference between short-term organizing that caters to the boom-and-bust cycle of elections and long-term organizing that aims to reshape life for everyone in the state.

The lesson here is clear: if Democrats treat 2026 like another last-minute sprint, we will waste the opening that organizers spent years creating.

To learn more about our 2026 strategy in Wisconsin and get involved, visit Stateswin.org.

Last year, Democrat made headlines (including a special shoutout from former President Barack Obama himself) after a major political upset. In August, she won her special election for Iowa’s State Senate District 1 by just 797 votes, flipping the seat and breaking the GOP supermajority.

In 2026, she is running again to hold her seat, campaigning on affordable and accessible childcare, protecting bodily autonomy, expanding equitable access to healthcare, fully funding public education, and building real pathways to economic mobility for Iowa families.

1. State legislatures are often treated as secondary battlegrounds in national politics, yet your race proved how decisive they can be. What compelled you to run for the Iowa Senate, and what opportunity did you see in this moment for the legislature and for your district?

I grew up in a family rooted in service, with parents who were a public school teacher and a conservationist respectively, so I’ve always believed politics should be about taking care of the places and people we love. In recent years, as I talked to my family, friends, and neighbors, I realized that we were all increasingly worried about the same things: our kids’ schools, our access to health care, if our water is clean or not, and whether our communities will still be there for the next generation.

Feeling the need and desire to “do something” about these concerns was why I started Moms for Iowa, to help my friends and community transform their conversations in the coffee shop, around the kitchen table, and on the school run into action. I was already feeling like the politicians in Des Moines did not have the best interests of me or my daughter at heart so when there was an opportunity to run for Iowa Senate, I knew I couldn’t sit on the sidelines any more. When I looked at who was making decisions for me at the State Capitol, I saw very few people who looked like me – a young(ish) mom juggling work and family commitments. I ran in 2025 and am running again in 2026 because we have the opportunity to make the state capitol look more like the people represented there. The majority of policies that affect the daily lives of ordinary Iowans are made in Des Moines, not D.C., and I want to lead on making the positive changes we need to make our public education, healthcare, and cost-of-living the best in the nation again, attracting more families to move to Iowa. 2026 has the potential and momentum to be a turning point for Iowa, and to elect new leadership across our state. I’m excited to be part of this change but I’m taking nothing for granted – I’ve already started door-knocking and talking to voters in every corner of my district, because even with the wind at our backs, a win in November will still take lots of work every day from now until then.

2. Your special election campaign unfolded in less than two months. Looking back, what shifted the race from competitive to winnable, and what do you think ultimately persuaded voters to take a chance on change after 13 years of Republican control?

The 47 days between the day I was nominated and Election Day were absolutely electric from start to finish. I always knew the race was winnable because of the deep frustration people were, and still are, feeling over one party control of our state. While I was knocking in my neighborhood, I talked to a woman who was absolutely dejected about *all this*. She asked me point blank why voting in the special election mattered when she was only one person. I explained that this election would break the Republican supermajority and she stopped right there and said “I will go early vote tomorrow.”

The day that a bus of 50 people from across the state showed up to help us knock on more doors and then hearing about the conversations that were had that day, I knew that we were on to something.

3. Your win broke the Iowa Republican supermajority. In practical terms, what does that change inside the legislature, both procedurally and politically? What doors does it open that were previously closed?

Procedurally, it means Democrats now have real leverage. We can push back on controversial or our current governor’s unqualified appointees instead of watching them sail through. It means Republicans can no longer simply ignore Democratic voices; if they want to move legislation, they may actually have to slow down, negotiate, and work with us to improve bills. That opens the door to more scrutiny, more transparency, and better outcomes for Iowans.

Politically, the supermajority created a sense of inevitability—that no matter the consequences, they could govern with zero accountability. That illusion is cracking. I’m hopeful they’re starting to see that Iowans are paying attention and waking up to the havoc that’s been wreaked on our budget, on working families, and on our most vulnerable neighbors. And I’m hopeful that voters will continue to show they’re willing to vote in their own best interests, not out of habit or fear.

4. As Iowa heads into 2026 as a major political battleground, where do you see the greatest opportunities for progress this year? What guidance would you offer fellow Democrats working to build durable power across the state?

The biggest progress we can make comes from showing up locally and consistently, especially in places that too often feel ignored. When I was knocking doors in my district last summer during the special election, I heard repeatedly from voters that they hadn’t heard from an elected official on their doorstep in years. Many of them really appreciated the opportunity to just chat, share their feelings (and frustrations!) and feel heard and respected by someone asking for their vote. What I learned from this experience is that durable power isn’t built on TV ads or last-minute visits, but instead by showing up, listening more than talking, being honest with people, and earning their trust over time.

As a result, my advice to fellow Democrats is to lead as neighbors first. Talk with your community about why this work is personal to you, and why you will always be in their corner. Invest in other local leaders who are doing the work necessary to improve lives and make things better. Organize everywhere – don’t write off any voters by assuming you know what they care about, or how they will vote. Keep the focus on our families and our kids, and how our community is caring and nurturing and providing for the next generation. If we do all this with heart and persistence we can both win in 2026 and build momentum and change that lasts well beyond one election cycle.

5. Before running for the Iowa Senate, you helped found Moms for Iowa, a grassroots organization focused on making public policy accessible to busy parents. How has that experience shaped the way you communicate about policy and govern, and how do you continue to make the legislative process more accessible for Iowans today?

I’m really proud of what I learned through Moms for Iowa and am excited to say that I have passed her on to another Iowa mom to make sure that good work continues.

I was asked recently at a forum what guides my decision making and it boils down to raising the floor for everyone instead of raising the ceiling for some. Right now, we have so many bad policies that are meant to pull the rug out from our most vulnerable and when the dots get connected, more people start paying attention.

Since I can’t stay away from Instagram, I have been working to explain exactly how the legislative process works from the inside, including the ways in which it sometimes intentionally leaves out constituent input. The response from people has overwhelmingly been “THANK YOU - WHY IS THIS PROCESS SO HARD TO UNDERSTAND?”

I’m also using social media to help underscore the fact that I am still a regular person, who loves her community and her family and wants to do all that I can to make sure that everyone gets a fair shot.

6. When you aren’t knocking doors, meeting constituents, or at the Capitol, how do you like to spend your time? What helps you reset?

This is such a hilarious question because during the first campaign last year, I went in to work the day after I knocked half of my own precinct and told my coworkers “I think I’m REALLY going to like campaigning,” to which they responded “Yeah, we know. This is the perfect place for all of your extroversion.” Connecting with and caring for people is truly what keeps me going.

When the weather is cooperative, I like to be in my burgeoning garden. My husband would tell you that I only like to think about gardening and that my execution is lacking. I would remind him that I have been a little bit busy…I digress.

I also have an exceptional group of women that meets at my house every couple of weeks. Everyone brings their kids, food, their wins and their woes, and we share all of it. The kids run around and get extra tired, we get to love on our chosen family and I feel so much lighter.

States Win is supporting incredible candidates like Sen. Drey across Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin ahead of the critical 2026 midterms. Learn more and get involved at StatesWin.org.

After weeks of brutal ICE actions, I know that our hearts and minds remain heavy with the horrifying events in Minnesota and the constant assault on our rights and our democracy. It became deeply personal for me last week, when my daughter’s school district here in Michigan was targeted by ICE.

Choosing to target a school district is exactly the kind of outrageously callous tactic that ICE is embracing. In fact, ICE actions under the Trump administration have escalated so far that Human Rights Watch was compelled to label them “terrorizing entire communities.”

And just this week, Steve Bannon said ICE will “surround the polls come November.” While the White House also said that they would reduce some of the ICE force currently in Minnesota, it is abundantly clear that the Trump administration has no long-term intention of discontinuing its alarming and illegal use of ICE in states nationwide.

While Republicans control Washington, Democratic state leaders across the country are using every lever they have to slow, block, and respond to ICE abuses. Officials in state capitols from Maine to California have introduced and passed measures aimed at limiting cooperation with ICE, increasing transparency around enforcement actions, and creating legal pathways to challenge misconduct.

These strategies are pragmatic and clever. Immigration generally falls under federal law, and states have little ability to completely prohibit federal action. But the institutions that people rely on every day like schools, hospitals, courts, and local police, are largely within the purview of state and local officials. That gives state lawmakers significant influence over whether those systems become complicit with, or an extension of, federal action.

Limiting ICE’s reach inside state systems

Many states are focusing on keeping ICE physically out of civic spaces like courthouses and state capitols, so they cannot use these places as convenient enforcement hotspots.

State legislatures in Oregon, New York, New Jersey, and California have passed laws prohibiting ICE from making arrests in or around courthouses without a judicial warrant or explicit court approval. New Jersey and Washington state are introducing or expanding existing limits on local police cooperating with ICE, along with restricting state agencies and hospitals from collecting immigration status information altogether.

Holding ICE officers personally accountable

Other efforts focus on holding ICE officers themselves accountable and legally liable. In Maine, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows announced her office would not issue confidential license plates to unmarked ICE vehicles. California, Maryland, Michigan, New York, Washington, and New Jersey have advanced so-called “mask bans,” which remove qualified immunity protections from ICE agents who cover their faces to hide their identity.

New York legislators have introduced proposals that would allow people to sue ICE officers in state court, and California, Colorado, Georgia, New York, Oregon, and Pennsylvania have followed suit. Colorado and California released online portals to report ICE misconduct directly to the state attorney general. In Illinois, lawmakers filed legislation barring individuals hired by ICE during the Trump administration from ever being hired by state or local law enforcement.

A few of the state legislators fighting back against ICE

Here at States Win (formerly Sister District), we have been paying special attention to our alumni currently in elected office who have been standing up to ICE.

• Rep. Mai Xiong (Michigan), a Hmong refugee, introduced HB 4849 which could prohibit ICE arrests in schools, places of worship, and hospitals. Beyond legislation, she has visited detention centers, spoken directly with detainees, and demanded detainees’ release.

• Rep. Lorena Austin (Arizona), who holds a degree in immigration policy, has been a consistent leader in advancing immigrant justice. They have marched in the streets in solidarity with Minnesota, fought back against anti-immigrant legislation, and stood with communities targeted by enforcement and surveillance.

• Sen. Lisa Grafstein (North Carolina), a civil rights lawyer since 1995, has been one of the most vocal opponents of North Carolina Republicans’ efforts to advance a bill that would require local sheriffs to hold undocumented immigrants for ICE.

• Del. Elizabeth Guzman (Virginia), herself a Peruvian immigrant, introduced HB 1438, which would prohibit state and local agencies from cooperating with ICE, along with limiting inquiries into immigration status.

Meanwhile, Republican-led chambers are complicit

Unfortunately, on the other end of the spectrum, GOP-dominated legislatures are expanding their cooperation with federal immigration enforcement. For example, in Tennessee, legislation dubbed “Immigration 2026” would require immigration status checks, mandate referrals to ICE, and make it a state crime for undocumented immigrants to reside in the state. This legislation was unabashedly crafted with guidance from the White House and reflects a broader push among Republican lawmakers to deepen cooperation with federal enforcement.

Here in my home state of Michigan, we are also seeing the contrast between the values of red and blue chambers play out in real time. As ICE has increased enforcement in communities across the state, the Democratic majority in the Michigan Senate is working to pass a package of bills to protect people’s rights and hold ICE accountable. Meanwhile, the Republican Speaker of the state House has already declared that his caucus wants to work with ICE and ban sanctuary cities.

The Trump administration has brought fear into our neighborhoods and our communities. Our path forward is clear. We must fight for state legislators who will make our communities safer, who will protect our rights, and who will ensure that democracy is not destroyed by an authoritarian leader who ignores the law and puts masked armies in our streets.

That is how we will protect our communities – not just in moments of crisis, but for the long haul.

On February 12, States Win will be hosting a call with New American Leaders Action Fund called “Governing with Courage: State Leaders Standing Up to ICE.” We’ll be joined by MN Senator Zaynab Mohamed, MN Senator Ann Johnson Stewart, VA Delegate Elizabeth Guzman, AZ Representative Lorena Austin, and MI Representative Mai Xiong. I hope you’ll join us.

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Last week, federal agents executed a court-authorized search at the Fulton County Elections Hub and Operation Center in Georgia. New images are coming out everyday of FBI trucks hauling hundreds of boxes of election materials, including physical ballots, tabulator tapes, ballot images, and voter rolls from the 2020 election.

If you are familiar with Fulton County, Georgia, this moment shouldn’t come as a surprise. The county is a bright blue spot on Georgia’s political map, covering much of Atlanta – which is known as the Black Mecca of this country. It has also been a fixation of Donald Trump’s years-long effort to sow doubts about the 2020 election.

The raid, carried out on January 28, 2026, was authorized by a magistrate judge and involved a sealed criminal search warrant that sought extensive records tied to the 2020 presidential election. In fact, Trump was on the phone with the FBI agents who searched the office.

But while the president is already alluding to vague new information from these raids about the “stolen 2020 election,” the truth is this isn’t just about feeding Trump’s ego over a bygone race.

It is about manufacturing chaos, eroding trust in democracy, and laying the groundwork to interfere in Georgia and across the country before the decisive 2026 midterms and the 2028 election.

What We Know So Far

On February 2, Donald Trump appeared on former Deputy FBI Director Dan Bongino’s podcast and stated, “The Republicans ought to nationalize the voting.” This came on the heels of federal agents descending on a central county election facility, commanded by a sealed warrant, which seized roughly 700 boxes of election materials. Many of these documents have long been under court seal due to ongoing litigation over access to the ballots.

Local officials, including the Fulton County Board of Commissioners, expressed alarm at not knowing where the records are now, how they will be handled, or who will ultimately have access to them once they are out of county control.

While the FBI described the action simply as a court-authorized search, critics have raised questions about the involvement of federal leadership typically not associated with domestic criminal investigations. Reports indicate unusual involvement by officials from outside Georgia and raised eyebrows by national lawmakers.

Why This Matters Beyond 2020

It’s no secret Trump believes he won Georgia in 2020, but it’s important to be clear about two facts:

1. The 2020 presidential election results in Georgia have been repeatedly audited, recounted, and upheld by courts and independent authorities.

2. There is still no verified evidence nationwide of the kind of widespread fraud that would have changed the outcome in 2020.

Yet the optics of this raid feed into a well-worn narrative used to justify drastic actions against local election infrastructure. In a moment when Georgia and the rest of the country are gearing up for crucial elections in 2026 and 2028, it is legitimate to ask:

Who is directing these actions, and to what end?

This is not partisan cynicism. It is a sober look at how law enforcement and legal authority can be wielded, intentionally or not, as leverage in political battles. When federal agents, equipped with sealed warrants and a heavy enforcement presence, show up at local election facilities without transparency, the effect is to erode public confidence in the very systems that underpin free and fair elections.

Why are election officials being treated as targets rather than allies?

Fulton County’s election workers are professionals whose job is to administer elections with integrity, not to be cast as villains in political narratives. Years of politically motivated attacks and misinformation campaigns have already placed unnecessary pressure on local election administrators. The raid escalates that situation.

Using law enforcement as a tool, or even the appearance of a tool, to pressure election officials or to sow doubt about electoral infrastructure weakens trust in democratic institutions. That trust is already fragile in many communities. It is our collective responsibility to protect it.

What does this say about 2026 and 2028?

Let’s be honest: the headlines are anchored in 2020, but the implications stretch far forward. Actions like these come at a time when state and local officials are determining how elections will be run in future cycles. When federal investigations lack transparency and local leaders are left in the dark, it raises serious questions about equity and fairness in election administration.

Threats to democracy are not always overt. Sometimes they come in the form of ambiguity, secrecy, and blurring the lines between accountability and intimidation.

Here’s What Comes Next

Fulton County officials are now planning to sue the Trump administration in response to the raid, arguing the federal government overstepped by seizing sensitive election materials. The legal fight could determine what happens to the records taken and set a dangerous precedent for how election administration is treated heading into 2026 and 2028.

The integrity of our future elections depends on this. Not on reopening old debates, but on safeguarding electoral institutions for the challenges ahead. If you are alarmed by what is happening in Georgia, do not look away.

This is our first post on the States Win Substack, and if you’re here because you’re wondering what the path forward is for Democrats in the 2026 midterms (and in 2028, too), you’re in the right place.

After a bruising 2024 election, there have been many post-mortems on what Democrats could have done better (though, notably, the DNC has declined to release its own). Predictably, pundits have already fallen back on a familiar narrative: that belief in democratic power is fading, and that voters have somehow lost their appetite for progress.

But we’ve been organizing in state legislative races for nearly a decade, and we know that story doesn’t match reality.

For example, take the shocking upset of Iowa State Senator Catelin Drey’s win in August 2025. Senator Drey ran a spirited campaign that focused on solving real issues for her constituents: funding education, economic stability, water quality, and transportation. Incredibly, she won in a district that President Trump carried by 11 points in 2024 – and broke the GOP supermajority in the Iowa Senate.

Senator Drey’s win illustrates how voters are not reflexively dismissing progressive values. They are increasingly clear about the kind of change they want and expect to see in their daily lives. Voters want wages that keep up with the cost of living, clean air and water in their communities, strong worker protections, and the freedom to make decisions about their own bodies.

Democratic-led states are already delivering on many of these demands, including:

• Virginia’s Democratic trifecta: became the first state in the South to abolish the death penalty.

• New Mexico’s Democratic trifecta: became the first state to offer universal child care, saving families an average of about $12,000 per child annually.

• Michigan’s Democratic trifecta: became the first state in nearly 60 years to repeal anti-union “right-to-work” laws.

• Minnesota’s Democratic trifecta: passed universal free school breakfast and lunch, ensuring that no child attending public school goes hungry.

Those outcomes didn’t happen by accident. Democrats have governing majorities in state legislatures today because of sustained investment and slowly building state power over decades.

While much of the Democratic world continues to treat state power as secondary to federal races, we believe that the progress our communities deserve runs through our statehouses.

Let’s be clear: we need Democratic victories at every level of the ballot. That’s critical to stopping the damage Trump is doing. But if we want to notch policy wins and bring home progress for our communities, we will need to win more state legislative races.

That’s why Sister District is changing our name to better reflect our work. States Win (formerly Sister District) is here to win state legislative races by organizing grassroots volunteers across the country to elect Democrats in state legislatures and build toward durable Democratic majorities.

This Substack is an extension of that belief and that work. We’ll share lessons from the ground, a behind-the-scenes look at building state power, exclusive interviews with state leaders, and more.

With thousands of state legislative seats up for grabs in November, there’s a lot to discuss. We hope you’ll stick with us!

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