There are some games in the EFL this mid-week that I really like the look of.

Stoke vs Norwich: Norwich to win (2.30)

Despite summer expenditure exceeding £20 million on a raft of new signings, hopes of a fresh start for Mark Robins and Stoke City have quickly dissolved. A 4-1 thrashing away at Wolves over the weekend left the Potters rooted to the bottom of the Championship, having lost all three of their opening fixtures. Dating back to mid-January, Stoke have managed just three wins from their last 20 league matches.

While facing two promotion favourites in their opening fixtures represents a gruelling start, patience among the fanbase is already wearing thin. Disillusionment is growing, with Sporting Director Jonathan Walters drawing substantial criticism. Anxious home supporters are likely to turn fast if things start poorly. Instead of serving as a fortress, the hostile atmosphere brewing at the bet365 Stadium could easily hinder rather than help the players midweek.

The underlying data confirms Stoke’s deep-rooted issues. Last season, they ranked 21st for xG, 20th for xGA, and 20th for xG difference (-13.5), while ranking among the bottom eight for shots on target, big chances created, and touches in the opposition box. Early metrics for this campaign tell a similar story: despite the small sample size, Stoke rank 23rd for xG (2.4), 20th for xGA (5.6), and 23rd for xG difference (-3.2).

Stoke now face two crucial home matches this week to get their season going, beginning with Norwich on Tuesday.

Under Philippe Clement, Norwich have won 21 of 38 matches and look primed for a play-off push. After dropping their opening games to West Brom and Millwall, the Canaries bounced back with consecutive victories over Cardiff and Burnley. Norwich remain potent attacking threats, ranking 3rd for xG (6.3), 5th for big chances, and 8th for shots on target per match. Although defensive vulnerabilities remain, reflected in their xGA of 5.9 (21st), their offensive output regularly compensates for a leaky backline.

If Norwich harbour genuine promotion ambitions, they must capitalise on Stoke's frailties and take all three points at the bet365 Stadium. Given Stoke’s porous defence and Norwich's attacking firepower, the visitors should possess far too much quality for the hosts.

Burnley vs Middlesbrough: Over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes (2.15)

Burnley are winless after 3 games to the start the season. Last weekend, I indentifed Norwich vs Burnley as having high potential for Over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes. That bet landed in just 27 minutes with the final score being 4-1. Burnley vs Boro gives me the same indicators. 2 managers who want to play on the front foot? Yes. The “you score, we score” mentality? Yes. It is music to my betting ears.

Burnley started the season with a 1-1 draw against League One side Notts County in the cup, before coming back from 0-2 down to draw 2-2 with West Ham on opening day. Last weekend they lost 3-1 away to West Brom. The past weekend, they were thumped 4-1 by Norwich. Across those 4 games, they’ve scored 5 and conceded 10, scoring in every game, and are yet to keep a clean sheet. Across their 3 Championship games, Over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes has a 100% hitrate.

Kim Hellberg’s Boro are the visitors to Turf Moor. Across Hellberg’s 38 matches in charge, BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals have each landed 22 times (57%). Last season, Boro exerted more control at the Riverside Stadium, with BTTS landing in just 11 home games (46%). On the road, however, that figure surged to 16 matches (64%). Furthermore, while Boro ranked 21st for average total goals at home (2.17), their away matches averaged 2.84 goals, ranking them 6th in the division. This stark contrast suggests that whilst visiting teams show them immense respect at the Riverside, home sides are far more willing to have a go when hosting Boro. Burnley will certainly have a go on Tuesday night. From their 5 games so far this season, they’ve played out a 1-0, 2-1, 2-1, 1-3, and a 3-1.

This is another game where Over 2.5 goals/BTTS seems the obvious play.

Rochdale vs Shrewsbury: Under 2.5 goals and BTTS No (2.5)

After an impressive 106-point haul in the National League last season and promotion secured via the play-offs, Rochdale entered the campaign as a club on the rise.

Manager Jim McNulty has since departed for Stockport, replaced by Ian Watson. Two decades on from working in an Asda warehouse and playing part-time for ninth-tier Shildon, Watson arrived at Spotland after being poached from NLN South Shields, where he secured a second-place finish last season. He has overseen a sweeping summer rebuild, bringing in goalkeeper Nils Ramming, centre-back Laurence Maguire, and Chelsea loanee Kaiden Wilson, alongside forwards Cian Hayes and Zain Silcott-Duberry.

Yet while McNulty has hit the ground running at Stockport (P3 W2 D1), Watson has struggled to find his feet at Spotland. Barring a penalty-shootout victory over Tranmere in the League Cup preliminary round, Dale have slumped to 4 consecutive defeats: 2-0 to Bradford, 3-0 to Newport, 2-1 to Crawley, and 1-0 to Colchester. Across those four losses, the underlying numbers makes for grim reading. Against Bradford, the xG stood at 2.89 to 0.86 in favour of the Bantams, who registered 23 shots. Away at Newport, Rochdale managed an abysmal 0.16 xG to Newport’s 1.15, failing to hit the target even once. At home to Crawley, the deficit was similarly stark (0.53 to 2.16). Factor in pre-season friendlies, and Watson’s 90-minute record reads as: P9 W0 D3 L6. Supporters have voiced growing frustration over tactical shifts from game to game, players being played out of position, Watson’s failure to settle on his best XI, and a recruitment drive already plagued by injuries.

The underlying metrics paint Rochdale as one of the weakest sides in the division: 23rd for xG, 14th for xGA, 23rd for xG difference, 23rd for shots on target per match, 22nd for big chances created, and 23rd for opposition box touches. With all due respect to Newport, Crawley, and Colchester, none are world-beaters.

This midweek, Dale host a similarly sub-par Shrewsbury side who have already suffered defeats to Tranmere (2-0) and Barnet (3-1), alongside a narrow 1-0 victory over Salford last weekend. Shrewsbury’s defining trait so far has been an overwhelming reliance on set-pieces, where they rank 1st in the league. Against Tranmere, they managed a paltry 0.24 xG from open play compared to 1.04 from dead-ball situations. Against Barnet, open-play xG plummeted to 0.13 (versus 1.65 from set-pieces), while against Salford they mustered just 0.14 from open play (versus 0.52). Across three league outings, Shrewsbury have accumulated 3.7 total xG (ranking 14th), but a microscopic 0.51 of that total has come from open play.

With Rochdale ranking 24th for xG and Shrewsbury offer virtually nothing from open play, the value lies in Under 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score: No at 2.50.

My Selections:

Stoke vs Norwich: Norwich to win (2.30)

Burnley vs Middlesbrough: Over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes (2.15)

Rochdale vs Shrewsbury: Under 2.5 goals and BTTS No (2.5)

26/27 Season So Far

Units staked: 25

Units Returned: 27.8

P/L: +2.8

ROI: +13.3%

Track Progress here

To recap this past weekend, we went 2-1-2 and recorded a small profit of +0.30. That now means we have made a profit in each of the three betting previews so far.

Boreham Wood came from behind late on to win 2-1 against Boston United, thanks to goals from Matt Rush in the 85th and 88th minutes. Norwich vs Burnley over 2.5/BTTS landed in just 27 minutes, with the final score being 4-1 to the hosts. MK Dons were lucky to draw against Leicester in our DNB pick, so our stake was returned. Wolves beat Stoke 4-1, which was close to a winner, but it went over the 4.5 goals line, meaning that bet lost. In the final game on Sunday, Spurs continued their poor start with a 0-2 home defeat to Newcastle.

Augsburg vs Schalke: Under 2.5 goals (2.20)

I know what you are thinking: backing unders in the Bundesliga? Have you gone mad? After all, the German Bundesliga leads global professional football with an average of 3.19 goals per match. If you hear me out, though, there is method in the madness.

Schalke are back in the big time after spending three years in the wilderness of the 2. Bundesliga. With over 210,000 official members, Schalke rank as the third-largest football club in Germany (behind Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund) and sit among the six largest membership-based sports clubs globally. This is a huge club, regularly drawing crowds of over 60,000 at the Veltins-Arena for home matches.

Heading into his first-ever season managing in the Bundesliga, Miron Muslić has developed a reputation for building defensively solid teams. Muslić got his big break in Belgium with Cercle Brugge, leading them back into European competition for the first time in 14 years. In England, he is best known for his short spell at Plymouth Argyle, where he knocked the soon-to-be Premier League champions Liverpool out of the FA Cup, though he was ultimately unable to keep the Pilgrims in the Championship. Such was his impact at the club that the board wanted him to stay on in League One. However, he chose to depart for Gelsenkirchen instead.

Undertaking a massive rebuilding job, Muslić oversaw a defensive masterclass last season, with Schalke shipping a mere 31 goals across 34 league games. Their backline was imperious: top of the division for xGA, fourth-best for set-piece goals conceded, and a league-best 14 clean sheets for Loris Karius, who was so seldom called into action that he averaged the fewest saves per match in the 2. Bundesliga.

That defensive solidity was crucial because their attack underwhelmed at times. Schalke claimed the title with just 50 goals scored, which was the lowest total for a champion since Eintracht Frankfurt in 1997/98 and ranked 10th out of the 18-team league last season. Their underlying metrics were those of a top-six attack rather than an overwhelming champion: 4th for xG, 5th for shots on target, 6th for big chances created, and dead last (18th) for accurate passes per match. Unsurprisingly, their fixtures were remarkably low-scoring affairs. Schalke’s home matches ranked 16th for total goals at 2.53 per game, whilst their away trips averaged a division-low 2.24 goals, with only eight of 18 outings (44%) exceeding the Over 2.5 threshold.

Their attacking options offer scarce reason to anticipate a sudden goal rush ahead of their opener away at Augsburg. At 40 years of age, Edin Džeko is well past his peak and suited solely to a bit-part role, whilst Moussa Sylla mustered a modest 7 goals in 30 league appearances last season. The remainder of the frontline lacks genuine teeth: Junior Dina Ebimbe managed 5 in 27 Ligue 1 matches for Brest, Bryan Lasme bagged 2 in 12, Chukwubuike Adamu scored just once for Freiburg and once for Celtic, and Christian Gomis registered a solitary league goal all year.

To make matters worse, their sole reliable threat from last campaign, captain Kenan Karaman, who scored 14 goals, is a doubt for the Augsburg match after suffering an injury in pre-season. Without their main man, Muslić’s side looks bound to double down on what they do best: keeping it tight and grinding out results.

It is now up to Muslić to prove that he can translate this defensive resilience to the Bundesliga against much higher-quality opposition. I’m backing Under 2.5 goals here at 2.20.

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano: Barca to win, over 1.5 match goals and Rayo not to score in the 2nd half (1.91)

Barcelona enter the La Liga season with the chance to achieve something truly special. Winning three straight La Liga titles would make Hansi Flick’s men the first team to do so since Pep Guardiola’s legendary 2011 side. Overcoming José Mourinho’s Real Madrid to secure it provides some added spice.

The Blaugrana have enjoyed an impressive summer, strengthening their squad with high-profile moves for Rodri, Anthony Gordon, and Karim Adeyemi. However, the frontline still lacks a natural focal point after their pursuit of Atlético Madrid striker Julián Álvarez hit a brick wall. While back-to-back domestic crowns have cemented Barça’s status in Spain, restoring European supremacy for the first time in over a decade remains Flick’s main goal.

Barça have started this season in fabulous fashion, dispatching Elche with a convincing 5–0 victory away at the Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero and seeing off Athletic Club with a very comfortable 2–0 win. I am keen to back the hosts when they face Rayo Vallecano on Monday. Barça won an astonishing 19 out of 19 home matches last season, scoring 57 times and conceding just 10 goals. I do not expect much to change heading into this campaign, and their 2–0 win over Athletic Club is an early indication of that.

Their opposition, Rayo Vallecano, look like an ageing side on the decline after losing manager Íñigo Pérez to Villarreal over the summer, alongside a host of their best players. I expect relegation to be a serious threat this season for the Madrid-based side. A clear trend from their opening two matches of the campaign is how dramatically they have faded in the second half. Away at Sevilla, they led at the interval before falling to a 2–1 defeat; in that second period, Sevilla generated an xG of 2.00 compared to Rayo’s paltry 0.30. Then, during their 1–1 draw against Alavés, Rayo scored early in the second half, but in truth, it was one-way traffic, as they created a meagre 0.15 xG compared to the 1.01 produced by Alavés.

Barça ought to win and win comfortably. They should be able to coast through the second half, controlling the game with ease against a tiring Rayo Vallecano side who will be chasing shadows for 90 minutes. In their game against Alavés, 13 of their 22 players were aged 28 or older.

Barça averaged 3 goals scored per home game last season. My thinking for this bet is to back Barça to win, over 1.5 Barça goals, and Rayo not to score in the 2nd half, which comes out at 1.91.

Leece vs Roma: Donyell Malen to score anytime (2.00)

Roma have not won Serie A since the 2000/01 season, when Fabio Capello’s side, featuring the likes of Gabriel Batistuta and Francesco Totti, beat Juventus to the Scudetto.

Under Gian Piero Gasperini, however, the club is moving in a clear direction. Gasperini enjoyed a positive debut campaign in charge of the Giallorossi, guiding them to Champions League qualification for the first time since 2017/18. Anyone who has watched a Gasperini team knows how fluid and attack-minded his setups are. However, last season, Roma matches averaged just 2.37 goals, going very much against his track record. I expect that number to rise sharply as his system fully takes hold in his second season. You can’t keep Gasp down for long!

Gasperini is renowned for turning forwards into elite marksmen. His record is astonishing. Under his guidance, Marco Borriello revitalised his career at Genoa in 2007/08 as a powerful target man, scoring 19 goals in 35 games to earn a move to AC Milan. Diego Milito netted 24 goals in 31 matches in 2008/09 before joining Inter. During Gasperini’s time coaching Atalanta, Papu Gómez scored 16 goals in 2016/17, Duván Zapata managed 28 goals in 2018/19, Josip Iličić bagged 15 in 26 games in 2019/20, Luis Muriel struck 22 in 36 matches in 2020/21, Gianluca Scamacca managed 19 in 2023/24, and both Mateo Retegui (25 in 36) and Ademola Lookman (20 in 40) posted career-high numbers in 2024/25.

Bearing this track record in mind, I backed Roma’s two starting strikers last season, Evan Ferguson and Artem Dovbyk, to be Capocannoniere (Serie A top goalscorer), assuming I had struck gold and was on to a winner. However, they managed just three league goals each. Instead, winter arrival Donyell Malen made an instant impact and led the scoring charts with 14 goals in 18 games to finish third overall. The logic was sound, just applied too soon.

Among players to finish a Serie A season with under 20 appearances in the three-points-for-a-win era, only Zlatan Ibrahimović (15 goals in 19 appearances) has bettered Malen’s 14 goals in 18 matches from last season. Roma made a shrewd move signing Malen permanently from Aston Villa.

Roma opened their new campaign with a tricky home fixture against Fiorentina, but they made it look easy with a resounding 4–0 win. They dominated possession with 61%, accumulated 2.83 xG to Fiorentina’s 0.28, and created five big chances. Malen continued his sublime form by netting a hat-trick.

Next up, Roma travel to Lecce, a side that have finished 16th, 14th, 17th, and 17th over their past four Serie A campaigns. They ranked 19th for xGA last season and remain one of the league’s weaker outfits as third-favourites for relegation.

The selection is straightforward: Back Malen to score anytime at evens. The price of evens suggests he has a 50% chance of scoring, but he’s scored 18 in 21 games for Roma, which is more like 85%. I think evens is too big on him to score anytime. If he keeps scoring like he has, that price won’t stay at evens for long.

Benfica vs Estoril: Benfica to win, Benfica to score in both halves, and under 5.5 total goals (2.20)

Benfica last won the Primeira Liga back in 2022/23 and are in need of a fresh voice. José Mourinho took charge of Benfica last September and led them to third place in the league as they went through the campaign unbeaten. While on paper that sounds impressive, part of the reason they finished third (eight points behind Porto) was because they simply drew far too many games (11). With Mourinho departing in favour of a return to Real Madrid, club president Rui Costa has turned to another Portuguese manager, Marco Silva, to turn the club’s fortunes around. If we judge him by his first few games, expect lots of entertainment and tons of goals.

With Benfica finishing third last season, it means they have had to go through the qualifying rounds for the Europa League. They lost away to St Gallen 2-1 (xG 1.78 to 1.75), but demolished them in the return leg 5-0 (xG 4.01 to 1.04). They then beat Hearts 6-1 at home (xG 3.65 to 1.20) and drew the away leg 1-1 (xG 0.68 to 1.12). In the final qualifying round, they beat Danish side Aarhus 3-1 at home (xG 4.64 to 0.49) and 1-3 away (xG 0.35 to 2.19). In the league, they drew their opener 2-2 at home to Académico de Viseu (xG 3.44 to 1.07) but then dispatched Casa Pia 0-7 (xG 0.17 to 2.84).

Benfica have scored a whopping 28 goals across their opening eight competitive fixtures (an average of 3.5 goals per game). Looking purely at their home matches, they have scored 5, 6, 2, and 3. Benfica clearly do not have a problem finding the back of the net, but defence does seem to be a weakness so far as the Eagles have managed just two clean sheets from their eight games to date.

Their opponents on Monday are Estoril. The Canaries currently find themselves second from bottom as they are winless in their first three games (drawing one, losing two). Those three fixtures were against Famalicão (who finished 5th last season), Nacional (14th last season), and Rio Ave (12th last season). Realistically, they should not put up much of a fight away to Benfica here. Last season they lost all three games away to the “Big Three”: Porto 1-0, Benfica 3-1, and Sporting CP 3-0.

I have played around with the bet builder and tried my best to find a bet that is both simple and close to evens. With Benfica as short as 1.17 to win, it wasn’t easy. I’m siding with Benfica to win, Benfica to score in both halves, and under 5.5 total match goals at decimal odds of 2.20. This covers the scorelines 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 5-0, 2-1, 3-1, 4-1, and 3-2.

My Selections:

Augsburg vs Schalke: Under 2.5 goals (2.20)

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano: Barca to win, Barca 1.5+ goals and Rayo not to score in the 2nd half (1.91)

Leece vs Roma: Donyell Malen to score anytime (2.00)

Benfica vs Estoril: Benfica to win, Benfica to score in both halves, and under 5.5 total goals (2.20)

26/27 Season So Far

Units staked: 17

Units Returned: 19.6

P/L: +2.6

ROI: +15.29%

Track Progress here

With the season still in its early stages, I think there is value to be found. Especially in terms of goals.

Tottenham vs Newcastle: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals (2.00)

Spurs games look primed to be entertaining and full of goals under Roberto De Zerbi, especially after getting humbled 3-0 by Keith Andrews’ Brentford on opening day. After consecutive 17th place finishes, Spurs have spent over £300 million this summer to try and get back towards the top of the table.

When De Zerbi came in last year he had one mission: keep Spurs up by any means necessary. Across those seven games, Over 2.5 goals landed just three times (42%), and Both Teams to Score (BTTS) landed in 4 games (57%). We can put this down to the focus being strictly on results and grinding out 1-0 wins to stay up.

This is a stark contrast to his broader career. At Sassuolo, 74 of his 120 games saw Over 2.5 goals land (61%) and 80 saw BTTS Yes (66%). At Shakhtar, 18 of his 30 games went Over 2.5 goals (60%) and BTTS landed in 14 (46%). At Brighton, 51 of his 89 games went Over 2.5 goals (57%) and BTTS landed in 52 games (58%). During his time at Marseille, Overs landed in 46 of his 69 games (70%) and BTTS landed in 37 games (53%).

The 47-year-old is known as one of the most fiery and volatile managers in modern football. Because of this, he doesn’t tend to stay very long at clubs. His longest stint was three seasons at Sassuolo, followed by a year at Shakhtar, followed by less than two years at Brighton, and only 18 months at Marseille. When it’s going well, it’s fantastic, but when things start to go wrong, it doesn’t take long for the wheels to fall off the bus.

In the opposite dugout this weekend is Newcastle’s new manager Matthias Jaissle. Despite the loss of key players, Jaissle had Newcastle organised and dangerous on transitions against Liverpool. I thought they were much the better team and were unlucky not to get all three points. There was 4 goals, both teams scored and there were over 40 shots for both teams combined (13-27). This follows the same trends of his previous teams. Jaissle’s time across the Red Bull clubs and Al-Ahli is best characterised by an aggressive, high-pressing style that brings plenty of goals. In his short spell at FC Liefering, Over 2.5 goals and BTTS both landed in 11 out of 17 games (64%). At Salzburg, Over 2.5 goals landed in 61 of his 92 games (63%) and BTTS landed in 54 games (58%). At Al-Ahli, Overs landed in 81 of his 138 games (58%) and BTTS landed in 76 games (55%).

With two front-foot managers going head-to-head, backing Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score at evens is a standout selection.

Norwich vs. Burnley: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals (2.10)

When “Big Phil” Clement came in to Carrow Road toward the end of November last season, the Canaries were second from bottom in the Championship with 9 points from 15 games and had lost all eight home matches in the league and cup. The atmosphere had become toxic at Carrow Road as fans directed their ire toward manager Liam Manning and Sporting Director Ben Knapper, and the threat of relegation was very much real. However, after Clement took over, Norwich went on a great run, performing as the 5th-best side in the league and just missing out on the play-offs to finish 9th.

Norwich ranked 8th for xG but 19th for xGA last season, which shows their style is pretty open at both ends of the pitch. Over 2.5 goals landed in 20 of his 37 games (54%), and BTTS landed in 21 of 37 (56%).

Norwich have started the season with two defeats from their first two games: losing 1-2 at home to West Brom despite playing well, and being bullied by Millwall at The Den in a 3-0 loss. “Big Phil” needs a reaction to ease the fans’ concerns. Although it is a very small sample size, they have created an xG of 4.0 (ranking 4th in the league) but surrendered an xGA of 4.5 (ranking 23rd), which shows not much has changed regarding their style from last season.

This weekend, they host Burnley at Carrow Road. During pre-season, I listened to a Burnley podcast where one of the hosts mentioned after their 2-1 loss to Ajax that they see their style for this season as “you score, we score.” So far this season, that has run true.

Burnley started the season with a 1-1 draw against League One side Notts County in the cup, before coming back from 0-2 down to draw 2-2 with West Ham on opening day. Last weekend they lost 3-1 away to West Brom. Across those 3 games, they’ve scored 4 and conceded 6, scoring in every game, and are yet to keep a clean sheet.

To me, this game just screams goals for both sides in what I expect to be an open match. I’ll back BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 goals at evens (2.00).

Wolves vs Stoke: Wolves to win by 1-3 goals and under 4.5 match goals (2.00)

Stoke ended last season in dismal fashion. Mark Robins was fortunate to keep his job after the Potters ranked 23rd in the form table over the final 20 matches from mid-January through May. They finished in 17th, but the underlying numbers had them in 21st. A summer of heavy spending with over £20 million invested in squad additions including George Hirst, Ethan Galbraith, Svante Ingelsson, Djibril Soumaré, Luke Graham, and Milan Smit means there is a clear expectation on Stoke and Robins to do much better this season.

However, since their relegation from the Premier League, Gary Rowett, Nathan Jones, Michael O’Neill, Alex Neil, Steven Schumacher, Narcís Pelach, and now Mark Robins have all failed to deliver success despite strong financial backing from the Coates family. Finishing positions of 16th, 15th, 14th, 14th, 16th, 17th, 18th, and 17th underline a side moving backward. Additionally, Robins no longer has long-time assistant Adi Viveash by his side following their fallout and parting of ways, and he is yet to show that he can make it work without Viveash by his side.

Stoke’s away form in the Championship remains a major vulnerability. Across their last 16 league matches on the road, they have picked up just two wins and two draws alongside 12 losses. They scored only 8 goals while conceding 26 in that stretch, failing to find the net in 9 of those 16 trips.

Wolves enter the fixture as clear favorites, displaying sharp attacking play with 2 goals against Blackburn and 3 goals against Preston. Fer López, in particular, looks far too good for this level. He was on loan at Celta Vigo in La Liga last season, but they couldn’t stump up the £20 million to buy him, so he will be at Molineux this season, though he'll almost certainly be back in a top league this time next year.

At a price of 1.44, backing Wolves straight-up offers next to no value. Combining Wolves to win by a 1 to 3 goal margin with under 4.5 match goals covers the primary winning scorelines of 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, and 3-1. Crucially, this exact combination landed in all of Stoke’s last 8 away games as they lost 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 3-1, 2-0, 2-0, 2-0, and 3-1.

MK Dons vs Leicester: MK Dons Draw No Bet (2.00)

After backing Notts County on opening day in the draw no bet market against Leicester, I was tempted to take Burton on the same bet when they went away to the KP. However, as they are one of the favourites for relegation and both manager Gary Bowyer and defender Curtis Tilt have come out recently bemoaning the fact their squad is paper thin, suggesting that they’ll struggle if they don’t get reinforcements, I was put off backing them. Much to my dismay, I saw they won 1–2 at title favourites Leicester in what was one of the shocks of the weekend.

So, forgive me, but I am going back to the well once more. I simply have to back MK Dons when they face Leicester this weekend. I am shocked that the bookies are pricing this Leicester side up as favourites. Have they not seen their first three games?

If you ignore the names of the teams and their prior achievements, and call one team ‘Team A’, who have a manager who is a proven winner at this level, are with a club on upward momentum, got money to spend, signed well, and have taken points off good teams in the league in the shape of Oxford and Huddersfield. Then compare them to ‘Team B’, who have suffered back-to-back relegations, have a manager who has struggled in his last two jobs, and have struggled to beat a League Two side in Northampton, drew against a side promoted from League Two in Notts County, and lost to a team expected to be in League Two next year in Burton, all while playing poorly. To me, it’s obvious who should be favourites, and that team is not Leicester City.

Part of the issue I have with Russell Martin is his insistence on his style of play, no matter the circumstances or the quality of the players. I remember when he was at MK Dons and was asked about having a Plan B for when Plan A isn’t working. His response was along the lines of, ‘We don’t need a Plan B, we just need to do Plan A better.’ I doff my cap to him for his commitment and conviction, but surely it’s insanity to do the same thing over and over again and expect different results.

I have seen the same story repeat itself too many times with his teams. Against League Two Northampton in the cup, they had 77% of the ball but just 3 shots on target, resulting in 0.49 xG. They were saved by a goal from a set-piece. Against Notts County, they had 69% of the ball, 2 shots on target, an xG of 0.74, and were saved by a great strike from outside the box. Against Burton, they had 74% of the ball, 3 shots on target, and an xG of 1.10.

To get MK Dons at evens on the draw no bet seems like a steal to me. I feel that the bookies are too slow to react to Leicester’s poor performances. Just because they were in the Premier League two years ago doesn’t automatically mean they should win every game now. If poor performances continue, they will be a long way off a top-two finish.

Russell Martin will be feeling the heat as Leicester head into their third game of the league season in search of their first win. In his post-match interview with BBC Radio Leicester, Russell Martin said that there will be some ‘honest conversations’ after their defeat to Burton. Two games in and he’s already throwing out the ‘honest conversations’ line to the press. A bit early, don’t you think?

I’m taking MK Dons to continue their rise and pile more misery on Leicester. MK Dons draw no bet at evens.

Boreham Wood vs. Boston United: Boreham Wood Win & Over 2.5 Goals (2.20)

Boreham Wood enter the 2026/27 National League season as one of the title favourites. Fuelled by redemption after losing on penalties in last year’s playoff final, the Wood possess the squad depth and managerial pedigree needed to go one step further.

Boreham Wood continue to reject offers from Swedish side Djurgården for star 23-year-old winger Abdul Abdulmalik, with the latest turned-down bid reportedly in the region of £1.5 million. The player has since released a statement expressing his desire for a fresh challenge away from Hertfordshire, noting that opportunities to test himself at a higher level are rare.

In response, Chairman and Owner Danny Hunter addressed the transfer saga, confirming that Abdulmalik has “downed tools” and is refusing to train or play. Despite missing the division’s standout player, the Wood proved their resilience by sweeping aside Robbie Savage’s Forest Green Rovers 3-0 on the road, delivering a massive statement win that proves they can perform even without their star man.

History favors high-scoring sides with a chip on their shoulder. Recent National League champions were all dynamic, attack-minded teams coming off playoff heartbreak. Wrexham scored 116 goals to win the title in 2023 after finishing second and losing in the playoffs the year before. Chesterfield scored 106 goals to secure promotion in 2024 after losing the previous year’s playoff final. Barnet scored 97 goals to take the 2025 title following a prior playoff exit, and York scored 114 goals en route to the crown last season after falling short in the playoffs the year before.

Boreham Wood are primed to follow this exact blueprint. Last season, they boasted the division’s second-best attack with 95 goals, averaging over two goals per game. They have carried that offensive form into the new campaign, opening with two wins and a draw from three league fixtures, only missing out on a perfect record due to a 102nd-minute Tamworth penalty in a 3-3 opening-day draw. Across all competitions this season, their match scorelines read 3-3, 3-1, 5-2, and 3-0. Simply put, Wood games consistently yield goals.

On Thursday, they host Boston United, managed by Paul Hurst in his second spell at the helm. Boston managed 19th and 12th-place finishes in their first two seasons back at this level, and his side looks capable of pushing for a playoff spot this year. Under Hurst, Boston have posted 9 wins from 19 games, which is the sixth-best record in the league over that stretch.

Boston are a resilient outfit that avoided defeat in five matches last season after trailing at halftime. They also carry a genuine threat on the road, scoring 38 away goals last season, a tally bettered by only five of the top six teams. Against the league’s top seven, Boston had a respectable record of P7 W3 D2 L2, with matches regularly turning into high-scoring thrillers like 2-2, 1-0, 6-2, 1-2, 3-6, 1-1, and 2-3.

While Boston have started this season with tighter scorelines (0-1, 2-0, and 1-0) to sit sixth, this game should see plenty of goals. I expect a close game, but I have faith in this Boreham Wood side being just too good. I’ll take Boreham Wood to win and over 2.5 match goals at 2.20.

My Selections:

Tottenham vs Newcastle: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals (2.00)

Norwich vs. Burnley: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals (2.10)

Wolves vs Stoke: Wolves to win by 1-3 goals and under 4.5 match goals (2.00)

MK Dons vs Leicester: MK Dons Draw No Bet (2.00)

Boreham Wood vs. Boston United: Boreham Wood Win & Over 2.5 Goals (2.20)

26/27 Season So Far

Units staked: 12

Units Returned: 14.30

P/L: +2.30

ROI: 19.2%

Track Progress here

Anyway, onwards and upwards! With the Premier League and European leagues returning this weekend, here are my best bets for this week.

Arsenal vs Coventry: Arsenal -1 handicap and under 4.5 match goals (2.15)

Reigning Premier League champions Arsenal kick off the 2026/27 top-flight season under the Friday night lights at the Emirates Stadium, hosting newly promoted Coventry City. This matchup sees a traditional ‘Big Six’ team go in as heavy favourites as they open their season against a newly promoted side.

If we go back to the 2010/11 season and consider the last 16 years’ worth of data, we can assess the track record of newly promoted teams playing a traditional ‘Big Six’ side (Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man United, Man City, Spurs) on opening day. Over the last 16 years, there have been 20 games that fit these criteria, resulting in a record of P20 W1 D2 L17. As you would expect, it is a very unforgiving opening for the new boys. The only win came back in the 2021/22 season when Brentford beat Arsenal 2-0 at the Gtech.

We can filter the results down further between home and away records. When the new boys have hosted the Big Six, the record reads P11 W1 D2 L8, but away from home it is a dismal P9 W0 D0 L9. Those nine away games have seen losses such as 3-0, 6-0, 4-0, 3-2, 2-0, 4-1, 3-1, 4-3, and 3-0. Five of those games were lost to nil, with seven of the nine seeing the Big Six team win by two or more goals.

Attack wins you games, defence wins you titles. That maxim was certainly true for the Gunners last season. Arsenal’s home games last season averaged just 2.74 goals, and they conceded just 11 goals in 19 home games as they were by far and away the best defensive side in the league. Last year against newly promoted sides, Arsenal beat Leeds 5-0, Sunderland 3-0, and Burnley 1-0. Arsenal are an incredibly short 1.17 to win, and even backing them to win to nil is short at 1.67. Because of this, I’ll take Arsenal on the -1 handicap and combine it with under 4.5 goals. This covers Arsenal winning 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, and 3-1.

Hull vs Manchester United: Man United to win, Man United over 1.5 goals, and under 4.5 total goals (2.25)

Carrying over from Arsenal vs Coventry, we have another Big 6 team vs a newly promoted side on opening weekend when Hull host Manchester United. I don’t have many strong stances for the Premier League this year, but for those of you who read my ante-post preview, you’ll know that I’m very much anti-Hull. Without boring you to death by going through every metric, it is one thing to win promotion with the fourth-worst defence in the league, but to do it with the second-worst underlying defensive numbers is unheard of. Simply put, this current approach won’t cut it in the Premier League.

Amongst the analytics community, there is talk that Hull stand a good chance of breaking Derby’s record of 11 points. They are viewed that badly. I simply have to bet against them at every opportunity before their opponents are priced up too short.

They open the season at home to Manchester United. Michael Carrick did fantastically last year (P17 W12 D3 L2), leading them to qualify for the Champions League once again. Across those 17 games, Carrick had United as the form side in the league, some three points better than champions Arsenal. This year will be a different kettle of fish, though, as he’ll have to prove that he can juggle cup competitions alongside league matches.

Hull’s best defender, Charlie Hughes, is out injured and will miss the start of the season. Given this and their poor defensive record last year, I have to side with Man United goals here. I’m combining Man United to win, over 1.5 Man United goals, and under 4.5 total goals. This covers the scores 0-2, 0-3, 0-4, 1-2, and 1-3.

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds: Draw (3.25)

Oliver Glasner is a slow starter to seasons. Across the last five times he has started a season with a team (Wolfsburg 20/21; Frankfurt 21/22, 22/23; Palace 24/25, 25/26), his overall record reads P20 W3 D14 L3. His opponent on opening day is Leeds United, managed by Daniel Farke.

At one stage last season, Leeds looked like they were heading for the drop. On 29 November, away at Man City, they were 2-0 down at half-time. Farke switched to a back five, and Leeds looked revitalised, pulling it back to 2-2 before losing in the last minute. Farke stuck with the back five for the rest of the season, and Leeds stayed up comfortably. Away from home with a back five, they W1 D9 L2.

Glasner has drawn 70% of his opening four games across the last five seasons, and Farke drew 75% of his away games after switching to a back five. The draw here is priced up at 3.25, with the implied probability of it happening standing at just 30.77%. Oliver Glasner and Daniel Farke have faced each other four times in their managerial careers, with both recording one win, two draws, and one loss.

This is a game where both sides will be happy with a point and the history tells us the draw is a big runner. I’m backing the draw at 3.25.

Fulham vs Chelsea: Chelsea to win (2.15)

Fulham open the 2026/27 season at home to West London rivals Chelsea. Both sides start the campaign with new managers, with former Real Madrid men occupying both dugouts: Álvaro Arbeloa in charge of Fulham and Xabi Alonso leading Chelsea.

Fulham had a typical ‘Fulham’ season last year. Since coming up under Marco Silva, they have finished 10th, 13th, 11th, and 11th, which is too good to be dragged into a relegation battle, but not quite good enough to qualify for Europe. The underlying numbers reaffirm Fulham as a mid-table side. Despite this, nobody can doubt Marco Silva’s accomplishments in getting Fulham promoted and establishing them in the Premier League.

Fulham now face a change of the guard heading into this season. Maro Silva has left for Benfica and they have a severe shortage of goals after losing top scorers Harry Wilson (10) and Raúl Jiménez (9) on free transfers. That leaves Alex Iwobi (4) and Emile Smith Rowe (3) as their top remaining goalscorers from last season. To address this, Arbeloa signed 22-year-old striker Gonzalo García from Real Madrid for £34m (alongside 21 year old César Palacios). García showed promise at the Club World Cup, scoring 4 goals across 6 games. However, during the regular La Liga season he found minutes hard to come by, often playing second fiddle to Kylian Mbappe. Yet he still managed six league goals in 30 appearances (nine starts) last season. Replacing your two top goalscorers with a 22 year old striker in his debut Premier League campaign represents a big gamble from Fulham. Time will tell if it will work out.

Promoted from Castilla to replace Xabi Alonso in January 2026, Arbeloa endured a rough spell at Real Madrid, posting a record of W18 D2 L8 across 28 games. On the pitch, his side suffered a shock Copa del Rey exit to second division Albacete, a Champions League quarter-final loss to Bayern Munich, and finished eight points behind Barcelona in La Liga. Off the pitch, dressing room chaos persisted. He reportedly fell out with six players and oversaw two physical altercations between teammates, namely Valverde against Tchouaméni, and Carreras against Rüdiger. One thing is certain: Things did not improve under him. Ultimately, Arbeloa landed the Fulham job on the strength of his youth coaching reputation rather than his chaotic stint in charge of Real Madrid. Director of Football Tony Khan’s managerial track record (Jokanović, Ranieri, Parker, Silva) yields roughly a 25% success rate, meaning belief in Arbeloa relies heavily on trust in Khan’s recruitment. This appointment shapes up to be very much boom or bust for the Cottagers. By Christmas, they could either be top eight or in the bottom three.

Chelsea’s 2025/26 season was a chaotic campaign that ultimately ended in mid-table disappointment. Enzo Maresca started the season with Chelsea as ‘World Champions’, yet by New Year he had departed following talks over the Manchester City job and a breakdown in relations with the Chelsea hierarchy. Liam Rosenior was appointed head coach after stepping up from BlueCo sister club Strasbourg. However, Rosenior did not see out the season, getting sacked just 23 games into his tenure. Chelsea finished 10th, a distant 13 points off the top four in a poor campaign. Yet Chelsea significantly underperformed their underlying numbers last year; rather than a true mid table performance, the underlying metrics present them as the 5th best side in the league.

Finishing 10th might also prove a blessing in disguise. With no European football to contend with, Xabi Alonso gets full uninterrupted weeks on the training pitch to prepare his side for every Premier League match. Unlike Arbeloa, Alonso possesses an impressive CV. This time last year, he was managing Real Madrid and regarded as one of the most exciting young coaches in Europe. At Real Sociedad B, Alonso earned promotion to Spain’s Segunda División for the first time in 60 years. At Bayer Leverkusen, he led the club to an unprecedented unbeaten domestic double in 2023/24, securing Leverkusen’s first-ever Bundesliga title alongside the DFB-Pokal. They were one result shy of doing the treble, but lost in the Europa League final. The only blot on his copybook was his brief stint in Madrid.

My pick here is to back Chelsea. They possess the better squad and the superior manager. Despite finishing 10th last season, I expect Chelsea to challenge for a top four spot. Away at Craven Cottage last season, the Big Six teams were priced as follows: Spurs (3.50), Chelsea (2.08), Liverpool (1.90), Man City (1.63), Arsenal (1.53), and Man United (2.12). Only Spurs were priced higher than Chelsea’s 2.15 opening day odds here, and Spurs finished 17th last season. This price looks overly generous on a Chelsea win, and that is precisely where the value lies.

Blackburn vs Middlesbrough: Over 2.5 goals (2.00)

On a recent episode of the Not The Top 20 (NTT20) podcast, host George Elek highlighted an intriguing angle: bookmakers are severely underestimating the “Mowbray Tax” for Blackburn. At 62 years old and with a playing background as a centre-back, Tony Mowbray could easily be stereotyped as a manager who favours old-fashioned, direct, “hit-the-big-man” football.

The reality of his 20+ years in management is the exact opposite. Mowbray’s teams consistently prioritise fluid, attack-minded play that results in high scoring matches. In his current stint at Blackburn, both games so far have seen Both Teams to Score (BTTS) and Over 2.5 goals land (100%). At West Brom, where he struggled to get going, BTTS landed in 10/17 matches (58%) while over 2.5 goals landed in 6/17 (35%). At Birmingham, his short stint saw BTTS landed in 4/8 games (50%), with overs hitting in 5/8 (62%). At Sunderland, 39/65 games saw BTTS (60%) and 37/65 went over 2.5 goals (56%).

Even looking back to his original 267 game spell at Blackburn, 142 matches produced goals at both ends (53% BTTS) and 144 went over 2.5 goals (54%). Mowbray has spent decades proving that his teams produce open, entertaining, end-to-end football.

Contrast this with Blackburn’s approach last season under Valérien Ismaël, Damien Johnson, and Michael O’Neill. Rovers ranked 24th in the Championship for average total goals, mustering a mere 2.00 goals per game at Ewood Park and 2.26 away from home.

This Saturday, Blackburn welcome Championship hotshots Middlesbrough. Under Swedish manager Kim Hellberg, Boro are renowned for their front-foot style. Across Hellberg’s 35 matches in charge, BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals have each landed 19 times (54%). Last season, Boro exerted more control at the Riverside Stadium, with BTTS landing in just 11 home games (46%). On the road, however, that figure surged to 16 matches (64%). Furthermore, while Boro ranked 21st for average total goals at home (2.17), their away matches averaged 2.84 goals, ranking them 6th in the division. This stark contrast suggests that whilst visiting teams show them immense respect at the Riverside, home sides are far more willing to have a go when hosting Boro.

Bookmakers appear to be focusing too heavily on the Blackburn of last season, entirely overlooking the “Mowbray Tax”. When an outcome is priced at evens (2.00), it carries an implied probability of exactly 50%. Given that both managers heavily favour attacking football and are consistently involved in goal-heavy fixtures, pricing Over 2.5 Goals at evens is too generous. The visitors will be more than obliging in what shapes up to be an open game. BTTS is priced up at 1.75, making Over 2.5 Goals at evens a standout value bet.

Bromley vs Cambridge: Bromley Draw No Bet (1.91)

Bromley played in League One for the first time on Saturday with a 0-1 away win against Barnsley at Oakwell, starting life very well in the third tier of English football after winning the League Two title last season.

Two years ago, the Ravens won promotion from the National League to the fourth tier for the first time in their history after going up via the playoffs, and now, just a couple of seasons later, their promotion to League One has created more history for the London side.

The rise is even more remarkable given the fact that Bromley were playing in National League South as recently as 2015.

While they proved their quality on the road with that opening day win at Oakwell, their performances at Hayes Lane could be vital to how their season plays out. Woodman’s side ended the 2025/26 league campaign unbeaten at home, securing 14 wins and nine draws from 23 games (W14 D9 L0).

This weekend, they host fellow promoted side Cambridge, who also won on opening day with a 3-2 home victory against Wigan. Cambridge’s away form was fairly middle of the road last season, finishing with 7 wins, 10 draws, and 6 losses, which ranked them 9th in League Two for away form. Given how formidable Bromley were at Hayes Lane and Cambridge’s average performances on the road last season, it is certainly surprising to see Cambridge priced up as the bookmakers’ favorites to claim an away win.

Backing Bromley on the draw no bet appeals.

Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves: Alaves Draw No Bet (2.62)

Reaching the Conference League final should have been a major springboard for Rayo Vallecano to cement themselves as a regular contender for a European place in La Liga. However, under majority shareholder and president Raúl Martín Presa, the club’s true potential remains severely capped by mismanagement. Rayo’s recent triumphs (including reaching a European final, back-to-back 8th-place finishes, and a five-year stay in the top flight) are achievements made in spite of Presa’s leadership, not because of it.

Supporters and club figures frequently accuse Presa of intentionally allowing physical facilities to deteriorate, partly, as fans suspect, to manufacture a justification for moving to a new stadium. As the brilliant Sid Lowe explained in his Guardian article back in 2025, under Presa, Rayo Vallecano are:

“An institution falling apart, a club where the captain hands over the armband in protest over the treatment of staff; where they can’t use the training ground; where the stadium fails building inspections, where plug sockets sit open, wires exposed; there is bird shit everywhere; seats are broken, toilets overflow; taps don’t work.”

Rayo Vallecano are uniquely tied to their home district, Vallecas, a historically working-class, left-leaning neighbourhood in south Madrid. The fanbase is represented by progressive supporter groups, notably the ultra group Bukaneros, who represent local neighbourhood values. Presa has repeatedly antagonised the fanbase politically. In 2021, he invited leaders of the far-right Vox party into the executive box at Vallecas, triggering massive protests where supporters arrived in hazmat suits to symbolically “disinfect” the stadium. Rather than attempting reconciliation, public communications between Presa and the supporters are often confrontational, with matchdays at Vallecas routinely featuring choruses demanding Presa’s resignation, boycott strikes, and banners condemning his leadership.

The circus continues heading into this season. Rayo temporarily cannot play at Vallecas Stadium after the Community of Madrid revoked their lease. An audit revealed serious health, safety, and fire hazard risks at the facility. Urgent repair work will keep the stadium closed for several months, forcing them to play their home games at Butarque, the stadium of CD Leganés. They actually played at Butarque once last season, when the pitch at Vallecas was waterlogged, and they beat Atleti 3-0. But this was an Atleti side who had already checked out of their league campaign and finished a disappointing 4th.

Moving to a temporary venue can severely disrupt a team, as disrupted routines, unfamiliar surroundings, and logistical fatigue turn nominal home games into quasi-away trips. Coupled with potential fan boycotts (a realistic threat for Rayo) this shift erodes home advantage and could foster an away-team mindset. Tottenham Hotspur experienced this in 2017 when an unbeaten 19-match home run at White Hart Lane was followed by no wins in their first three league games at Wembley. Similarly, Shakhtar Donetsk’s long-term displacement, forcing them to play European ‘home’ matches in Poland and Germany, yielded just five wins in 16.

To make matters worse, miracle worker Íñigo Pérez has left to take up the Villarreal job. Beñat San José comes in after taking Eibar to the verge of the play-offs in the Segunda División on a tight budget, but this Rayo job is huge, especially when trying to replicate the overachievements of past managers like Andoni Iraola and Íñigo Pérez. What will not make his life any easier is that their summer business has mainly consisted of outgoings: Pep Chavarría has joined Chelsea, Nobel Mendy has gone to Hull, and legendary playmaker Óscar Trejo has retired, leaving Marash Kumbulla on loan from Roma as their only signing of note so far.

For all the reasons listed above, I want to get against Rayo when they host Alavés on Thursday. Rayo are being priced up as the side from last season (2.05) and I don’t think the bookies are taking into account the managerial change, the loss of key players, and the move away from Vallecas. I’ll be looking to take advantage of this by backing Alavés on Draw No Bet at 2.62.

My Selections:

Arsenal vs Coventry: Arsenal -1 handicap and under 4.5 match goals (2.15)

Hull vs Manchester United: Man United to win, Man United over 1.5 goals, and under 4.5 total goals (2.25)

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds: Draw (3.25)

Fulham vs Chelsea: Chelsea win (2.15)

Blackburn vs Middlesbrough: Over 2.5 goals (2.00)

Bromley vs Cambridge: Bromley Draw No Bet (1.91)

Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves: Alavés on Draw No Bet (2.62)

26/27 Season So Far

Units staked: 5

Units Returned: 6

P/L: +1 Unit

ROI: 20%

Track Progress here

Watford vs Southampton: BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals (2.00)

A Sunday kick-off in the Championship sees Watford play host to Southampton at Vicarage Road. Both sides enter the new season determined to right the wrongs of their previous campaigns, albeit for very different reasons.

Watford’s collapse last season saw them win just three of their final 21 matches, culminating in a 16th-place finish. Over the summer, Italian manager Alessio Dionisi became Watford’s 12th manager in six years. Dionisi arrives with a strong reputation for expansive, attack-minded football, but a poor defensive record has often let him down. He was once tipped as the heir to Roberto De Zerbi’s throne at Sassuolo, but he has found results hard to come by in recent jobs.

During his first spell at Empoli, where he won promotion, his 42 games averaged 2.86 total goals, with Both Teams to Score (BTTS) landing in 57% of those fixtures. That philosophy was even more pronounced across his 107 matches at Sassuolo, where games averaged 3.21 goals with a 66% BTTS hit rate. In his 41 games at Palermo, matches averaged 2.49 total goals with a 53.7% BTTS rate, whilst his second stint at Empoli averaged 2.50 goals per match with BTTS landing 59.1% of the time.

Southampton enter the campaign under Tonda Eckert following a dramatic close to last season, where the spygate controversy saw them barred from the play-off final and handed a four-point deduction for this season. On the pitch, Eckert’s side remains one of the best in the league, but question marks remain over their defence on the road.

In 20 away matches under Eckert, BTTS landed 16 times and Over 2.5 goals hit in 13 matches. Across all 23 away league fixtures, Saints managed just a single clean sheet, with matches under Eckert averaging a staggering 3.75 goals per game.

With standalone odds sitting at 1.63 for BTTS and 1.75 for Over 2.5 Goals, combining the two offers far better value at a backable price of evens (2.00).

Bolton vs Preston: Over 2.5 Goals (2.00)

Bolton open their Championship campaign at home to Preston, returning to the second tier for the first time since 2019. While a clash between these two might not scream non-stop entertainment on paper, the underlying statistical profiles tell a different story. Steven Schumacher is known for a front-foot style that defined his breakout managerial stint at Plymouth Argyle.

In Plymouth’s 2022/23 League One title-winning campaign, his side registered a league-best 82 goals, with Argyle matches averaging 2.80 total goals per game. When Schumacher stepped up to the Championship with Plymouth the following season, Argyle’s opening 22 Championship games under his watch produced a staggering 69 goals (3.14 per game), driven by a clinical front line but an exposed defence that could not cope with the step up in opposition.

Even during a turbulent spell at Stoke City, games at the Bet365 still averaged 2.5 total goals. Bolton’s home fixtures last season averaged 3.04 goals per game, while his side also generated the highest shot volume in League One. The Trotters’ arrival in the Championship only amplifies the potential for goal-heavy encounters.

Speaking on a recent BBC Radio Manchester Q&A with fans, Schumacher reinforced his attack-minded philosophy:

“Most importantly, like I’ve said to everybody and try and stress to the players, we want to make sure that we give a good account of ourselves. We’ve worked incredibly hard to get to this point, so we want to go and be positive. It doesn’t really matter about budgets and finances.”

Preston present ideal opposition to keep that trend going, having averaged 2.57 total goals per away game in the Championship last season. With both sides tipped to struggle this season, expect an open, hungry start to the campaign as both view this opening fixture as a prime opportunity to grab three early points.

Notts County vs Leicester: Notts County Draw No Bet (2.40)

Ten years after winning the Premier League and five years after lifting the FA Cup, Leicester City now find themselves in League One following a third relegation in four years amid a toxic atmosphere surrounding the club.

Russell Martin has been tasked with clearing the decks and rebuilding the side in his own image. He has experience in the third tier, having guided MK Dons to 19th- and 13th-place finishes before being poached by Swansea City, where he subsequently finished 15th and 10th in the Championship. A move to newly relegated Southampton followed, where he took Saints straight back up via the play-offs. However, his uncompromising philosophy faced heavy criticism in the Premier League, with Southampton winning just one of their opening 16 games before a 5–0 home drubbing by Spurs sealed his fate.

A brief, disastrous stint north of the border at Rangers followed, where Martin became the shortest-serving and least successful manager in the club’s 153-year history, managing just five wins from 17 matches.

This Leicester job carries a clear make-or-break feel. Martin’s record across MK Dons (W31 D17 L32), Swansea (W36 D26 L37), Southampton (W34 D13 L26), and Rangers (W5 D2 L10) shows he has lost almost as many games as he has won. Martin has used up most of his nine lives, and he doesn’t have many left. His uncompromising, possession-heavy style demands very specific types of players, and those profiles seldom come on the cheap, meaning he is often putting square pegs in round holes.

The additions of Alex McCarthy, Connor Chaplin, Wes Burns, and Tommy Watson represent good business for League One, whilst Liam Cullen provides a familiar face for Martin following their time together at Swansea. Significant funds have been brought in through the sales of Jeremy Monga, Bilal El Khannouss, and Abdul Fatawu, alongside several high earners leaving at the end of their contracts. Even so, the club remains in a fragile state, and a large portion of that money will not be reinvested in new signings. This team looks nowhere near the finished product.

In their Carabao Cup game at home to League Two Northampton, Leicester laboured for large parts. Just two minutes into the game, Leicester centre-back Harry Souttar was sloppy in possession and gifted a one-on-one to Northampton, who scuffed their lines and failed to punish the mistake. Leicester had a lot of the ball but did very little with it: 77% possession resulting in just eight shots and an xG of 0.48. They got the win thanks to a Caleb Okoli header from a set piece, but it was far from convincing.

I want to oppose them on opening day when they travel to Notts County. Notts County host Leicester after a resounding play-off final win against Salford City last season. There will be a lot of continuity in their squad for next season with not much player turnover. Notts County went away to Burnley in the Carabao Cup and frustrated the Championship side, with Burnley having 74% possession but creating just 0.85 xG, eventually taking them to penalties. This could be an awkward game for Leicester, especially if their performance from last weekend is anything to go by. Notts County will be looking for a repeat performance.

I think Leicester will improve as the season goes on, but it might take time and a lot of patience waiting for it to eventually click. I want to oppose them here. Notts County on the Draw No Bet market appeals.

Oxford vs MK Dons: MK Dons Draw No Bet (2.10)

Following their relegation, Oxford parted company with manager Matt Bloomfield in late June, appointing former Wales international Aaron Ramsey as their new head coach. However, it has not been plain sailing for the ex-Arsenal man. Oxford enter the season in crisis mode, operating under a temporary SCMP transfer embargo. This means the club cannot register new players, leaving head coach Aaron Ramsey with a thin squad and unresolved off-pitch ownership concerns.

Despite the turmoil off the pitch, Oxford’s embargo appears to have triggered a determination to close the doors completely rather than sell their top assets. The board’s stance suggests that if key players cannot be replaced, they will not be allowed to leave. Key assets like Stan Mills and Brian de Keersmaecker remain.

MK Dons enter the campaign in polar opposite circumstances, riding a wave of momentum following their successful League Two promotion under Paul Warne. The club has continued to invest heavily, strengthening the squad with proven talent. Additions include Daniel Barlaser and Cohen Bramall, both of whom previously played under Warne at Rotherham, alongside the experienced Ryan Wintle and Charlie Goode. Warne boasts an extraordinary record at this level, having secured promotion from League One in all four of his full seasons in charge across Rotherham and Derby County. His brand of football may not always be easy on the eye, but there is more than one way to skin a cat. He is a proven specialist at this level.

The managerial contrast could not be starker. Whilst Aaron Ramsey did have a brief stint as Cardiff caretaker, recording three games without a win (P3 W0 D2 L1) as they were relegated, this represents his first full-time head coaching job. He finds himself thrown straight into the deep end against a heavily backed side on an upward trajectory, led by a manager who knows this division inside out. As Jack Wilshere demonstrated at Luton last season, managing for the first time involves a steep learning curve. MK Dons will view this fixture as an ideal opportunity to lay down a marker to the rest of League One, making them an attractive selection in the Draw No Bet market.

York vs Bristol Rovers: Bristol Rovers Draw No Bet (2.25)

York returned to the EFL in style after hitting 108 points in the National League, scoring 114 goals along the way. Stuart Maynard was held in high regard after such a wonderful season, so it came as a big surprise to most when it was announced he had been sacked on 26th July, just three months after winning the title. A club statement posted on social media said it had “not been an easy decision” for the board and was made because of a “difference in direction and vision for the football club”. He has since been replaced by Scott Lindsey.

Lindsey shares a close affinity with Crawley Town, having guided the relegation favourites to a surprise play-off promotion to League One in 2024 despite finishing 7th. That success relied heavily on vastly outperforming their underlying metrics, scoring 73 goals from an xG of 58.7 (+14.3) and conceding 67 from an xGA of 71.3 (-4.3), with xPts predicting an 18th-placed finish.

He departed that summer for MK Dons, but despite heavy spending, he was sacked the following January after losing 11 of his final 16 matches to leave them 16 points off the play-offs. Lindsey then returned to a struggling Crawley side in the League One relegation zone; unable to prevent their drop, a dismal run of six wins in 39 games back in League Two led to his second sacking.

Scott Lindsey faces immediate pressure, with home fans already chanting for his sacking during a 0–2 home Carabao Cup defeat to Crawley and calling for Stuart Maynard to come back. He now has one week to get the team ready for the opening day, when they will host Bristol Rovers.

After a difficult spell under Darrell Clarke left them in the relegation zone, Bristol Rovers turned their season around by appointing Steve Evans, who, after an initial adjustment period, led the Gas on a league-best run from 21st February to the end of the season (P14 W11 D2 L1) to finish 14th and a comfortable 23 points clear of danger. Thanks to summer recruitment and the reputation of Evans, a proven promotion specialist with a back-to-back at Rotherham and another at Stevenage, Rovers have been priced up as second favourites for the outright title. Though Evans remains a divisive figure due to his outspoken touchline style, his recent contract extension signals strong backing from both the board and fans who have fully bought into his vision.

There isn't much between the two teams on quality, but York firing Maynard just weeks before the season to hire Lindsey raises massive red flags. Sacking a record-breaking, promotion-winning manager for a perceived step backwards surely kills their early momentum. Meanwhile, Steve Evans has had the summer to shape Bristol Rovers in his image. Given York's pre-season turmoil, they look far too short at 2.2, making Bristol Rovers in the Draw No Bet market the clear play.

My Selections:

Watford vs Southampton: BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals (2.00)

Bolton vs Preston: Over 2.5 Goals (2.00)

Notts County vs Leicester: Notts County Draw No Bet (2.4)

Oxford vs MK Dons: MK Dons Draw No Bet (2.10)

York vs Bristol Rovers: Bristol Rovers Draw No Bet (2.25)

Hull: Finish Bottom of Premier League (2.37)

Sergej Jakirović masterminded a miracle play-off final win at Wembley and promotion to the Premier League, but a look behind the curtain reveals a club living on borrowed time. Having escaped relegation on goal difference in 2024/25, few expected Hull to challenge for promotion in 2025/26, let alone secure a top-flight return. This is starkly illustrated by the ante-post betting markets, where they were priced as short as 3/1 to be relegated and an audacious 20/1 to be promoted at the start of last season.

Despite finishing sixth in the Championship, predictive models incorporating underlying metrics flagged them as a 23rd place side destined for relegation rather than promotion. Luck has played a large part in their success. But can a team have sustained success in this way? History suggests no, or at least, not for long.

In his brilliant TEDx Talk, ‘How to Outthink Your Competition’, former Brentford director Rasmus Ankersen points to Newcastle United’s remarkable fifth place finish in the 2011/12 Premier League season. Delighted by the success, Newcastle rewarded manager Alan Pardew with a historic eight-year contract and kept the core squad together, operating under the assumption that their success was repeatable. However, Ankersen demonstrated how the league table can lie in a sport heavily influenced by randomness and luck. By analysing the underlying metrics, he revealed that Newcastle’s success was incredibly fragile, sustained only by a series of highly unsustainable, lucky factors. While the public saw a roaring success story, data-driven bettors saw a house of cards about to collapse. The following season, reality caught up: Newcastle slumped to 16th place, finishing 11 places worse off and narrowly escaping relegation. Similarly, Scott Parker’s Burnley won the 2024/25 Championship with 100 points despite heavily overperforming their xG (+10.4) and xGA (-22.3), only to be promptly relegated from the Premier League in 19th place.

Hull’s actual underlying profile (-20.4 goal difference) mirrored relegated sides like Sheffield Wednesday and Leicester City, while their actual +4 goal difference was dramatically lower than their fellow promotion rivals (+52, +33, +26, +25, and +15). Their underlying metrics tell a clear story of overperformance, having scored 70 goals from 59.7 xG (+10.3) and conceded 66 goals from 80.1 xGA (-14.1). Crucially, 14 of Hull’s 21 wins were by a single goal (a volatile, luck-dependent metric), whereas Coventry City (18) and Ipswich Town (15) dominated opponents with victories by two goals or more.

Not only do Hull enter an unforgiving top flight with poor underlying numbers, but they have severe structural instability off the pitch. Owner Acun Ilıcalı has burned through five permanent managers in four years: Shota Arveladze was appointed under Ilıcalı's new ownership, but was later fired for poor results after a summer of heavy investment. Liam Rosenior was dismissed after a seventh place finish for playing ‘boring’ football, replacement Tim Walter failed with his ‘heart-attack’ style, and temporary fix Rubén Sellés made way for Jakirović. Sporting director Jared Dublin left over the summer after there were disagreements over salary and contract terms following the club’s promotion to the Premier League.

Financially, they have also had their troubles. Prior to their promotion push, the club was quietly accumulating debt as a result of aggressive transfer spending. By late 2025, concerns were mounting about the team’s balance sheet. To stabilise the club, Ilıcalı converted nearly £15 million of his personal shareholder loans directly into club equity. Following the Play-off final win, promotion bonuses pushed the club £6 million over the Premier League’s Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR) limit, forcing panic sales hours before the 30 June 2026 deadline. Public records then revealed a £55 million bridging loan from Point72 in July 2026 to cover cashflow deficits.

With severe structural instability, rapid managerial turnover, and statistical overperformance catching up to them, Hull look completely ill equipped for the top flight. I expect a chaotic campaign featuring multiple managerial changes ending in a 20th place finish.

Wycombe: League 1 Top 6 (3.25)

With the three relegated sides coming down from the Championship amidst serious uncertainty, as Leicester face financial issues, Sheffield Wednesday need a full rebuild, and Oxford operate under a transfer embargo, there has rarely been a better time to back a play-off contender ready to make the step up.

That side is Wycombe. At this stage last year, the Chairboys were fancied for the play-offs under Mike Dodds, but with wantaway striker Richard Kone heading to QPR and Dodds departing after a poor start, that challenge failed to materialise. Michael Duff now remains at the helm after taking over mid-season, bringing vital tactical structure and extensive EFL experience.

Wycombe’s underlying numbers from last season point to a side primed for the top six. They ranked 7th for xG, 5th for shots on target, 6th for xGA, 4th for shots on target against, and 8th for goal difference. Furthermore, they proved dangerous in attack and resilient in defense, as only four teams won more matches by two or more goals and only one side suffered fewer heavy defeats.

According to xPts, they should have finished 4th last season. The summer transfer window has seen them strengthen key areas with proven upper EFL stalwarts, including striker Cauley Woodrow from Luton Town and veteran defender Steve Cook from QPR.

I don’t quite understand why eight teams are currently priced at shorter odds than Wycombe to finish in the top six. I assume the market is focusing on the recently relegated sides and perhaps showing bias following a poor end to their campaign (three wins in 11). I believe the odds of 3.25 offer outstanding value for them to make a serious push.

AFC Wimbledon: League 1 Relegation (2.10)

Part of the appeal in betting on the ‘Relegated from League One’ market is the sheer volume, as four out of 24 teams go down. However, we can whittle those 24 teams down drastically when we look at how League One actually functions. It is, more than most divisions, a league of two halves. The teams with serious promotion ambitions are looking up, whilst those looking down know they are in for a season of mid-table fodder or an outright survival battle. Exceptions happen, but they are rare.

Looking back over the last three seasons, 12 teams have been relegated from League One. Examining their finishing positions from the prior season (19th, 13th, Promoted, 16th, 19th, 18th, 15th, Promoted, Promoted, 18th, 13th, 16th) reveals a stark pattern: not a single relegated side finished in the top half of the table the previous year. Every single one was either a newly promoted team or finished between 13th and 20th, instantly dropping our list of possible teams from 24 down to 12.

When we look at expected points (xPts) data for those same 12 relegated teams (23rd, 13th, N/A, 22nd, 24th, 17th, 14th, N/A, N/A, 14th, 16th, 15th), the story remains consistent. None of the 12 ranked in the top half for underlying metrics; three were genuine bottom-three fodder, three were newly promoted sides, and six were mid-table teams that suffered a downturn and spiralled into a bad season. So what have we learned? The ideal relegation candidate is a bottom-half finisher (13th to 20th) with poor underlying numbers and the potential to regress.

Several teams fit the criteria, as Blackpool, Doncaster, Barnsley, Wigan, Burton, Peterborough, and Wimbledon all combined bottom-half finishes with average-to-poor underlying metrics, but Wimbledon stands out. Despite finishing 19th, their xPts had them relegated in 21st. Their underlying numbers from last season make for tough reading: they ranked 18th for xG, 21st for shots on target, 21st for xGA, and 21st for goal difference, with only two teams losing more games by 2+ goals.

They went through two poor runs last season. Around the New Year, they won just 1 in 14. They then finished the season with just 1 win in 11 and survived by being just four points better off than Exeter in 21st.

Under Johnnie Jackson, Wimbledon did brilliantly to secure promotion in 2024/25 and hold their own as a fan-owned club in League One, but the modern EFL financial gap is brutal. Top League One clubs operate with playing wage budgets of £8m to £15m+, whereas Wimbledon typically operates around £2m to £3m, meaning heavyweight clubs spend roughly three to five times what Wimbledon can afford on player salaries alone. Even the supposedly weaker clubs in the division, who they are fighting against, might have double the budget. Even some League Two teams will have bigger budgets than Wimbledon. With Exeter City suffering relegation from League One last year, the reality for fan-owned clubs is glaring. When operating on a shoestring budget, recruitment under Director of Football Craig Cope has to be spot-on every single window.

Wimbledon’s rise as a phoenix club is an incredible story, but as the financial side of the game intensifies, they may have finally hit their ceiling. While odds of 2.10 are short for second-favourites, the bookmakers are still underestimating the severity of their budget deficit. Their underlying numbers and structural budget gap mean I simply don’t see four worse teams in the division. If they stay up again, it would be quite the achievement.

Grimsby: League 2 Top 7 (2.37)

With the gap between the lower end of League One and the top contenders in League Two shrinking by the day, the days of relegated sides being automatic favourites to bounce straight back up are over. There is good reason for this, as the finishing positions of the last 12 relegated teams read as 3rd, 14th, 19th, 22nd, 2nd, 14th, 15th, 23rd, 4th, 15th, 17th, and 24th. Only three of those 12 managed a top-half finish, all of whom went on to gain promotion, whilst the remaining nine all ended up in the bottom half, with two suffering back-to-back relegations. Port Vale look like the most credible candidate for a top-half push, whereas Rotherham, Northampton, and Exeter appear far more likely to struggle.

With only two relegation spots available, a team has to be particularly poor to drop out of League Two, making that market one to avoid as a lot can shift over the course of a season. Instead, this trend creates real value in the Top Seven market, especially with three of the relegated sides looking vulnerable. In a similar vein to the Wycombe selection in League One, the goal is to target a settled side with strong underlying metrics capable of taking the extra step this season. That team is Grimsby Town.

Grimsby famously knocked Manchester United out of the cup last season and reached the play-offs before falling in the semi-finals, but the general feeling around the club is that they were capable of even more. Under manager Dave Artell, they play an attractive brand of attacking football. Their underlying numbers painted them as one of the elite sides in the division last year, ranking 1st for xG, 1st for shots on target, 4th for xGA, 2nd for shots on target against, and 4th for goal difference.

Their trajectory is best illustrated by their goal difference, which swung from -6 in 2024/25 to +24 last season, representing a massive 30-goal improvement. Their attacking metrics are backed up by genuine firepower: Jaze Kabia proved a masterstroke signing with 24 goals in his debut EFL season, and Dave Artell has added even more depth up front. Proven goalscorer Andy Cook arrives to offer experience, alongside 6 ft 5 in target-man Josh Andrews to provide tactical variation and a physical presence up top.

The market is focusing on big spending Salford and ambitious newly promoted sides from the National League. Grimsby do not need to make wholesale changes to remain right in the mix. They are already knocking on the door, making them a fantastic prospect at 2.37 to secure another top seven finish.

My Selections:

Hull: Finish Bottom of Premier League (2.37)

Wycombe: League 1 Top 6 (3.25)

AFC Wimbledon: League 1 Relegation (2.10)

Grimsby: League 2 top 7 (2.37)

First of all, history gives us some incredibly rigid boundaries. Every single edition of the Men’s World Cup has been won by a country from either Europe or South America. No nation from North America, Africa, Asia, or Oceania has ever reached the final, let alone win it.

Featuring 40 additional matches and 16 more nations than Qatar 2022, the 2026 World Cup promises to be the biggest, but not necessarily the best. The group stages will see just 16 teams eliminated while 32 progress, meaning 8 of the 12 best third-placed teams will qualify for the next round. While previously a 3rd place finish meant elimination, it could now be enough to progress. Consequently, many of the sides that finish 3rd will be able to navigate the group stage without actually playing high-quality football. FIFA is rewarding mediocrity.

Since 1986, the average odds of a World Cup winner has been 6/1, with the biggest price being 10/1. The World Cup is yet to experience a massive tournament shock on the scale of Greece winning Euro 2004 (150/1) or Leicester City (5,000/1) winning the Premier League.

When looking back from the 1990 World Cup to the present day, there is a clear pattern between the strongest sides and the finalists. To see just how predictable the tournament is, we only need to look at the seeding system. Does a Pot 1 team always win the World Cup? The data speaks for itself:

As you can see, there is a clear correlation between the Pot 1 teams and the teams who reach the final. Since 1990, only Croatia in 2018 managed to reach the final from outside of Pot 1. As much as we all love an underdog story, true fairytales just don’t exist at this level.

The system is designed this way on purpose. FIFA wants to ensure the heavyweights play each other later in the tournament, so they seed the teams based on their global rankings. The best teams get the easiest groups on paper. From there, if they win their group, they face a runner-up (usually from Pot 2 or Pot 3) in the Round of 32 and smoothly advance through the knockout stages.

For this edition, the pot 1 teams for the 2026 World Cup are:

• France (Ranked 1st)

• Spain (Ranked 2nd)

• Argentina (Ranked 3)

• England (Ranked 4th)

• Portugal (Ranked 5th)

• Brazil (Ranked 6th)

• Netherlands (Ranked 7th)

• Belgium (Ranked 9th)

• Germany (Ranked 10th)

• Mexico (Host - Ranked 15th)

• United States (Host - Ranked 16th)

• Canada (Host - Ranked 30th)

These teams represent the crème de la crème of international football. They are reliable for the most part. If you are picking an outright tournament winner, history tells us it will almost certainly come from this list.

Interestingly, the hosts (the USA, Mexico, and Canada) receive automatic Pot 1 status despite being ranked significantly lower than several elite teams relegated to Pot 2. This creates a fascinating statistical anomaly for bettors. While historical data shows host nations almost always advance with a 91% progression rate, their actual squad quality is much lower than a traditional Pot 1 titan. When a dangerous Pot 2 side lands in a host's group, the smart money is often on that Pot 2 team to win the group outright. This value is already evident in Group B, where Switzerland are currently favoured to win the group over Canada.

With that in mind, here is my preview of the 12 Pot 1 teams.

1. USA

Mauricio Pochettino rose through the managerial ranks to become one of the hottest names in football, thanks to impressive stints at Espanyol, Southampton, and Tottenham. However, mixed spells at PSG and Chelsea followed, where lofty expectations overshadowed what was ultimately a decent job done by the Argentine. Now, he finds himself in the hot seat, leading a global superpower with a sub-par football team.

Where do expectations lie for the USA? The Round of 32? The Round of 16? The quarter-finals? The Argentine was brought in to give the US a decent chance of progressing in this World Cup, but even Poch was keen to downplay expectations after a 2-0 loss to Portugal. He stated that while elite nations have multiple players in the world’s top 100, the US currently lack that elite depth: “Belgium and Portugal have, in the top 100 players, [a] few or some players in that top 100. I think we don’t have [any].” While Christian Pulisic has the CV and the ‘aura’ of being the star they can pin their hopes on, the real talent lies in the underrated Tyler Adams (Bournemouth) and Chris Richards (Crystal Palace).

The USA have been kindly placed in a group with Paraguay (40th), Australia (27th), and Turkey (22nd). If the US win their group, they will play a third-placed team in the Round of 32. With home advantage, they should win. Belgium are likely opponents in the Round of 16, before a possible face-off against Spain in the quarter-finals. Those are two hurdles that look too big for them to overcome.

Last-16 exits in 2010, 2014, and 2022 have left the US without a quarter-final showing since 2002. I once again see them exiting the competition in the Round of 16, despite having home advantage.

2. Mexico

Mexico are hosting the World Cup for the third time. On the two previous occasions, they reached the quarter-finals. Between 1994 and 2018, Mexico consistently reached the Round of 16 but progressed no further. In Qatar, they suffered a group-stage exit on goal difference after losing to Argentina, beating Saudi Arabia, and drawing with Poland.

Manager Javier Aguirre returns for his third spell in charge of the national team. Aguirre’s footballing philosophy is far more pragmatic than aesthetic; El Tri do not try to dominate through endless possession, but instead play with intensity, aggressive pressing, and quick transitions. Aguirre wants to make his team uncomfortable to face, a trait that was highly evident in their recent friendlies against Portugal and Belgium. As he puts it: “At a World Cup, the team that plays the prettiest football does not always win. The team that knows how to compete does.”

West Ham midfielder Edson Álvarez captains the side from the centre of midfield, and it will be down to him to break up opposing moves and initiate attacks with forward passes. Up front, Fulham forward Raúl Jiménez will be tasked with scoring the goals to get Mexico into the knockout rounds, with AC Milan’s Santiago Giménez available to ease the burden.

Mexico will have one of the largest and loudest fanbases at the World Cup, particularly at the Estadio Azteca. However, Mexican supporters can also be demanding and impatient. Against Portugal, sections of the crowd booed their own team and ironically chanted “olé” for the opposition when the side failed to impress. The Azteca can be an emotional advantage or a psychological burden if the team starts showing doubt. The relationship between the national team and their supporters has grown increasingly tense due to a lack of recent success at major tournaments.

Despite this, the Azteca brings distinct physical advantages. The high altitude and intense weather conditions have historically created one of the most feared home-field advantages in international sport. Mexican players who compete domestically in Liga MX spend their careers playing at altitude, meaning their bodies are naturally adapted to efficient oxygen delivery under stress. Visiting players often feel muscle fatigue, “heavy legs,” and shortness of breath around the 60th minute, allowing Mexico to ramp up the intensity late in the second half as opponents begin to fade.

Mexico will play all three group games on home soil and should be targeting a top-two finish. An opening fixture against South Africa should offer a strong start, but they then face two potential banana skins against South Korea and the Czech Republic. While both names carry weight, these are not vintage years for either nation.

If they win their group, they will earn a comfortable Round of 32 fixture against a third-placed team in Mexico. From there, they face a potential Round of 16 clash against England, once more on home turf. However, if they fail to win the group, they lose their home advantage and will have to play their knockout matches in the USA. Capitalising on home soil is key, but realistically, it is difficult to see them getting past the Round of 16—or, at a push, the quarter-finals. Outright odds of 66/1 accurately reflect their slim chances of winning the tournament.

3. Canada

Jesse Marsch is often mocked because of his time in England (partly because he is American), but he has quite the CV. At Salzburg, he achieved back-to-back Austrian Bundesliga and Austrian Cup “doubles” in both of his seasons in charge, working with top talents such as Erling Haaland. At Leeds, he took over in February 2022 and successfully saved the club from relegation on the final day of the season. As an American in charge of Canada, you might expect some friction, but he has shown real progress. Since a Concacaf Nations League semi-final defeat to Mexico in March 2025, the team have lost just one of 15 matches, a run that has included some excellent opponents such as Colombia, Ecuador, Ukraine, and the USA. They have defeated the US twice in the past two years, including their first win on American soil in 57 years.

Because Marsch came through the Ralf Rangnick and Red Bull football philosophy, he has maintained a consistent 4-4-2 with an emphasis on pressing from the front and pace in wide positions. As he explains it: “Some teams press to win the ball back; we press to punish and think about scoring immediately when we recover the ball.” When I have listened to him on podcasts, he comes across as very humble and very likeable—quite un-American in a lot of aspects. Anyone who has watched a Jesse Marsch team knows they love transitions and thrive in the chaos. However, if you let them have the ball for long spells, they struggle.

Keeping nine clean sheets in 13 matches before the pre-tournament friendlies is impressive, considering Moïse Bombito, their star centre-back from Nice, and Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies did not play in any of those matches because of injury. Davies remains a doubt for the opener against Bosnia.

They have clearly improved under Marsch, and even without Davies, I still fancy them to give a good account of themselves, especially on home soil. In a group featuring Qatar, Switzerland, and Bosnia, Canada should be aiming to qualify out the group and reach the knockout stages.

If Canada win their group, they will get a tie in the Round of 32 against a third-placed team, but would likely play Portugal in the Round of 16. If they somehow got past Portugal, they would more than likely have to face Argentina in the quarter-finals. It would be more beneficial for them to finish 2nd rather than 1st as it would put them on a different part of the draw. Never the less, I cannot see them getting past the Round of 16. The massive odds of 150/1 show that they are seen as one of the weaker sides in the tournament.

4. Argentina

Argentina arrive in Group J at the 2026 World Cup as the defending champions, ranked second in the FIFA world rankings and boasting the most decorated squad in international football.

Lionel Scaloni’s side dominated CONMEBOL qualifying with 12 wins, two draws, and four losses from 18 matches, finishing six points clear of second-placed Ecuador. La Albiceleste, fielding a largely unchanged squad from the one that won it all last time out before clinching the 2024 Copa América, are bidding to become the first country in 64 years to win back-to-back World Cup titles.

Lionel Messi celebrates his 39th birthday between Argentina’s second and third group-stage matches. While Scaloni is carefully managing his star’s game time, Messi’s numbers still speak for themselves. A team-high eight goals from an eye-watering tally of 45 shots highlights just how much this Argentine side still looks to its greatest-ever player for answers. The key question is: at 39, can Messi still dazzle on the world stage in what will surely be the superstar’s “last dance”?

However, I do have concerns over a defensive unit consisting of a 38-year-old Nicolás Otamendi, an overrated Emi Martínez, and the liability that is Cristian Romero. They do not exactly fill me with confidence. Is this the tournament where we see the changing of the guard, with La Albiceleste looking towards the stars of the future, like Nico Paz and Julián Álvarez?

A group consisting of Algeria (29th), Austria (23rd), and Jordan (63rd) should not cause them too much worry, and they ought to top it comfortably. In the knockout rounds, they face the prospect of a tasty fixture against Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay (should they finish as runners-up in Group H), before potentially facing Turkey or the USA in the Round of 16. The daunting task of beating Portugal in the quarter-finals awaits, before a potential face-off against England or Brazil in the semi-finals. A side of Argentina’s quality will be favourites for every game, but can they withstand successive battles against the likes of Uruguay, Portugal, and Brazil on their way to the final? I have my doubts, but I would never rule them out, especially with Messi on the pitch, regardless of his age.

Argentina are currently 9/1 to win the tournament. I think this is a little overpriced given they are viewed as fifth favourites, meaning there is some value in that price.

5. Spain

My first thought when assessing the field is to look at who has the easiest run on paper, and who gets to play the weakest teams on their path to the final. Imagine two people competing in an obstacle course. Person A has to swim through shark-infested waters, climb a mountain, and then skydive to the final stage. Person B just has a gentle jog, a light bike ride, and a quick swim before reaching the finish line. I know exactly whom I would put my money on. If those two then had to fight at the very end to decide the winner, Person B is far more likely to be well-rested and in top condition. Tournament football is no different.

The team that I feel has the easiest run this year is Spain. They are in a group consisting of Uruguay (17th), Saudi Arabia (61st), and Cape Verde (69th). If they win their group, they will face the runner-up from Group J, which is most likely to be Austria (24th) or Algeria (29th). In the round of 16, they will likely face Colombia (13th) or Croatia (11th). In the quarter-final, they are likely to face Belgium or the USA. On paper, they have the easiest run to the semi-finals. Reaching the final four would leave them with a tricky game against any one of France (1st), Germany (10th), or the Netherlands (7th). If they pass that test, they face the unenviable task of playing Argentina (3rd), Brazil (6th), England (4th), or Portugal (5th) in the final.

Spain are not the same side that demolished all before them during their historic era, when they won Euro 2008, the 2010 World Cup, and Euro 2012 back-to-back, but they are a young, dynamic side led by Luis de la Fuente. The reigning European champions have kept up their momentum. They made it to the UEFA Nations League final, where it took a penalty shootout for Portugal to beat them, and eased through qualification. They scored 21 goals in six games and won five of those six matches to nil. The only blot on their record was a 2-2 draw with Turkey, a game that was essentially a dead rubber since Spain had already wrapped up qualification.

In terms of talent, they have the next generational superstar in 17-year-old Lamine Yamal. Yamal goes into the tournament in fine form. Among La Liga players, only Kylian Mbappé (48) had more goal involvements in all competitions this season than the winger’s 41 (24 goals and 17 assists). Because Spain have such kind fixtures, there is no pressure on Yamal to be fully extended from the start; instead, he can be rested for the bigger fixtures in the later rounds. Manchester City midfielder Rodri is fit again and set to captain the team, while Yamal’s Barcelona teammate, striker Ferran Torres, is coming off an impressive campaign for the La Liga title winners. Mikel Oyarzabal and Mikel Merino were also among Spain’s star performers in qualifying.

With added fixtures and intense heat being major components for teams to deal with, the ability of this Spanish side to keep the ball will surely be a massive factor in allowing them to control games. They are the team to beat this year and are rightly favourites at 5/1.

6. France

France enter every major tournament as one of the favourites for the crown, and this summer’s World Cup will prove no different. Boasting the deepest squad in international football, an array of elite talent across the pitch, and immense experience on the grandest stage, Les Bleus will once again prove a force to be reckoned with.

Unsurprisingly, France waltzed to first place in their qualification group. In a section alongside Azerbaijan, Ukraine, and Iceland, only the latter were able to prevent Les Bleus from achieving six straight wins, with a 2–2 draw in Reykjavík being their only blemish.

North America will be the end of the road for Didier Deschamps. The France manager, who has won the World Cup as both a player and a coach, will step aside after the upcoming tournament and will be desperate to bow out by lifting the iconic golden trophy aloft for a third time.

Deschamps has proven to be a divisive figure during his nearly 14-year tenure in the dugout, but there will be mass appreciation for the 57-year-old when he departs. Pragmatism and organisation have sometimes robbed an incredible French cohort of attacking flair and inspiration, but reaching successive finals and winning the World Cup in 2018 ensures an incredible legacy. The question on my mind is: has he perhaps outstayed his welcome and remained too long in the job? Deschamps has caused a stir in France by cutting 14 players who were key cogs in his sides in 2018 and 2022. The team must now adapt to life without the retired Antoine Griezmann, Olivier Giroud, and Hugo Lloris.

Kylian Mbappé remains France’s poster boy. However, he enters this tournament with a fair share of baggage from this past season. Mbappé has spent months managing a partial tear of his posterior cruciate ligament (PCL). He refused surgery to preserve his World Cup availability, leading to immense friction with Real Madrid over his fitness and playing time. Real Madrid’s coaching staff struggled to integrate Mbappé seamlessly alongside Vinícius Júnior; his lack of defensive tracking caused tactical imbalances, though individually he still scored 43 goals in 47 games. Media drama peaked when fans launched petitions against him after he was spotted on holiday while injured. He was also recently booed by Madrid supporters and held “crunch talks” with club president Florentino Pérez following tactical disagreements.

A front four consisting of Mbappé, Désiré Doué, Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé, and Bayern Munich star Michael Olise will make any defence at this World Cup shudder in fear, but will playing with the handbrake on limit the damage that this frontline can cause?

France have been handed a tough draw, having been placed in a group with Senegal (14th), Norway (31st), and Iraq (57th). France should top the group and face a third-placed team in the Round of 32, but from there, it is far from easy. A potential clash against Germany in the Round of 16, the Netherlands in the quarter-finals, and Spain in the semi-finals represents one of the most difficult runs to the final for any team in the tournament.

In 12 of their last 13 World Cup appearances, France have either reached at least the semi-finals or been eliminated in the group stage. It is boom or bust for Les Bleus. Surprisingly, I have a fancy for a bust.

7. England

It was a perfect qualification campaign for England, who won all of their group games and kept a clean sheet in every single match. This accomplishment makes them only the second team ever to win all of their World Cup qualifiers without conceding. Defensively, the Three Lions were particularly sound, recording the lowest non-penalty xGA (expected goals against) in qualifying. Thomas Tuchel’s men scored 22 goals and placed seventh overall for xG (expected goals). However, in a group consisting of Albania, Serbia, Latvia, and Andorra, this carries very little weight.

If there is anything to take from previous editions, it is that qualifying for the World Cup with flying colours means sweet F.A. In 2006, managed by Sven-Göran Eriksson, they eased through qualification losing only one game, but produced unconvincing, underwhelming performances in the main tournament, eventually limping out to Portugal in the quarter-finals. Fabio Capello’s side won nine of their ten qualifiers but suffered a miserable tournament campaign in South Africa 2010, finishing second in their group before being humiliated 4-1 by Germany in the Round of 16. England’s unbeaten 2014 World Cup qualifying record also starkly contrasted with their dismal tournament performance in Brazil. While they cruised through qualification without a single loss, they suffered their worst World Cup showing in 56 years, crashing out in the group stage with just one point.

England’s biggest problem is dealing with the weight of expectation. In 2018, Gareth Southgate was able to lead England to a semi-final when the team were not fancied to do well. In 2022, when expectations rose once again, England struggled. The triumph of 1966 remains a noose around their necks. Is Thomas Tuchel going to be able to build on the work of Southgate and show the nous required to take England over the line?

In the March internationals, England were incredibly poor in both matches, managing only a draw against Uruguay before suffering a narrow defeat to Japan. Tuchel was largely brought in to be a tactical upgrade on Southgate, but with the heat being a major factor in how teams will look to play, I imagine we will see more ‘suffer-ball’ than fans will care to witness.

Tuchel spent time at the Club World Cup hosted in the USA and noted that it was “unbelievably hot” in the States at times, describing conditions as “very hostile to train and play in.” Assistant coach Anthony Barry echoed these thoughts, stating: “Even if you build the top heat-proof model out in America, the environment out there does not facilitate world-class football. It’s going to be a tournament of moments. You’re not going to see the best team playing the best football; it simply doesn’t allow that. The team that wins the World Cup will be one of moments. And it will be won by a collective, because you’re going to have to suffer, you’re going to have to overcome obstacles. You’re going to have to do it together.”

England’s first game looks to be their toughest as they open against Croatia (11th). The two teams previously met in the semi-finals in 2018, and Luka Modrić will once again carry Croatia’s hopes on his shoulders in what will be his fifth World Cup. Yet at the grand old age of 40, the 2018 Ballon d’Or winner may not have the same impact as of old. Much has changed since then and England look to have the stronger squad, on paper at least. Captain Harry Kane is expected to be in the race for the Golden Boot after a season where he has scored an astonishing 61 goals in 51 games for Bayern Munich.

After the Croatia game, they face Ghana (74th) and Panama (33rd), which are two very winnable fixtures. If England win the group, they will most likely play a third-placed team in the Round of 32, such as DR Congo, before a mouth-watering tie against Mexico in Mexico City in the Round of 16, a task that is harder than it looks. If England can get past Mexico, that sets them up for a clash with Brazil in the quarter-finals, and either Argentina or Portugal in the semi-finals.

I feel that England’s hopes rest squarely on the shoulders of their talisman, Harry Kane. Only Erling Haaland scored more goals in qualifying than Kane; however, his return of eight goals in six matches exposes a dangerous reliance on him to provide the final touch. England’s other attacking options all struggled to consistently find the net, with Eberechi Eze scoring three, Bukayo Saka, Marcus Rashford, Anthony Gordon, and Declan Rice netting just one apiece, while Jude Bellingham, Morgan Rogers, and Jarrod Bowen all failed to score. If Kane isn’t firing and the team’s performances are dire as England scrape through, I can see the media headlines already and the pressure mounting rapidly.

I’ll look to avoid England as they are priced up as second outright favourites at 6/1. I just don’t get the hype and, over time, I see more negatives than positives. There doesn’t seem to be value in their price, and I reckon an exit in the Round of 16 or quarter-finals is likely.

8. Brazil

Since the tournament’s inception in 1930, the Seleção have participated in every edition of the World Cup. However, qualification was far from simple for Brazil this time around, as they endured a true rollercoaster ride to reach the 2026 tournament. A political crisis within the Brazilian Football Confederation (CBF) led to a change in the presidency, and on the pitch, things were just as bad, if not worse. It was the country’s worst-ever qualifying campaign, featuring away defeats to Colombia, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia, as well as a historic home loss to fierce rivals Argentina. Following a heavy 4-1 reverse in Buenos Aires in March 2025, head coach Dorival Júnior was sacked, sparking genuine fears that Brazil might miss out on the tournament entirely. Fortunately for them, the South American qualifying format, which offers six direct spots for ten teams, is extremely forgiving. Hope was renewed both for qualification and the tournament itself when Carlo Ancelotti was appointed manager in May 2025.

While Brazil are five-time champions, their last title came back in 2002. Since then, they have only progressed past the quarter-finals once. In many ways, Brazil resemble a hotel that was once five-star but now relies entirely on past glory to carry its reputation forward. The current squad does not strike fear into opponents like the star-studded teams of a bygone era. Brazil won just three of their ten matches against the South American sides that also qualified for the 2026 World Cup; all of those victories came at home, and each was by a narrow, single-goal margin. It is hardly convincing stuff. Furthermore, the expectations of their adoring fans hang heavily over the players, perhaps even more so than those facing England.

Brazil enter the World Cup intending to deploy a 4-2-4 formation, which has been Ancelotti’s preferred tactical setup since his arrival. However, the Italian manager has already lost several crucial players to injury, including Éder Militão, Rodrygo, and Estêvão. “Considering the players we have at our disposal, we believe the best model of play for us is to go with four up front,” Ancelotti stated in March. If Brazil are to have any chance of lifting the trophy, star player Vinícius Júnior must step out of Neymar’s shadow and drastically improve his international record, which currently stands at a modest 8 goals in 47 caps.

Brazil have been placed in Group C alongside Morocco (ranked 8th), Scotland (43rd), and Haiti (83rd). Haiti look set to be the whipping boys of the group, while Scotland are expected to take third, leaving Morocco and Brazil to battle it out for top spot. Morocco are coming off a fantastic 2022 tournament in Qatar, where they became the first African team in history to reach the semi-finals, and their 8th-place world ranking proves they demand respect. After winning their first six qualifying games, the Atlas Lions thrashed Niger 5-0 on matchday seven to guarantee their World Cup place, eventually finishing qualifiers with a perfect record of eight wins from eight, scoring 22 goals and conceding just two. Packed with quality in almost every position and boasting an impressive tournament track record, the African champions are very much ones to watch.

If Brazil top Group C, they will face the runner-up from Group F, likely Japan or Sweden, in the Round of 32. That would set up a Round of 16 clash against either Ecuador or Senegal. From there, Brazil would most likely meet Mexico or England in the quarter-finals in Miami, with Argentina or Portugal awaiting the Seleção in the semi-finals. With Brazil looking far from vintage, I am happy to steer clear of backing them here. Instead, my bet would be on Morocco to win the group. Conversely, Brazil’s 8/1 odds to win the World Cup seem far too short for a team that has struggled to live up to its billing for quite some time.

9. Portugal

Is this the year that Portugal finally stop underachieving? For a nation that produces so much talent and adores football, their performances at World Cups leave a lot to be desired. Their best-ever finish came in their debut tournament back in 1966, where they finished third. Since then, their record has been underwhelming. They were knocked out in the group stage in 1986 and 2002, finished fourth in 2006, exited in the round of 16 in 2010, suffered another group stage exit in 2014, fell in the round of 16 in 2018, and reached the quarter-finals in 2022. This is simply not the return you would expect from a footballing nation that has produced legendary talent like Cristiano Ronaldo, Eusébio, and Luís Figo.

The tournament in Canada, Mexico, and the United States is expected to be Ronaldo’s record-breaking sixth World Cup. This is an astonishing feat for a 41-year-old who has spent two decades turning the improbable into routine. Can he spring one last surprise in what will surely be his final World Cup appearance?

Yet, for all the attention Ronaldo is afforded, Portugal’s engine room may be the real headline act. Paris Saint-Germain duo Vitinha and João Neves set the rhythm behind Manchester United playmaker Bruno Fernandes, giving manager Roberto Martínez a midfield that can make a convincing claim to be the best in the world.

There is quality almost everywhere else too, but Portuguese talent is hardly a novelty. Benfica, Sporting, Porto, and Braga have long supplied Europe’s biggest clubs with polished players. The trouble is that Portugal have too often taken fine squads to major tournaments and returned with a suitcase full of regrets.

Coach Roberto Martínez arrived in January 2023, bringing the experience of leading Belgium’s gilded generation to the 2018 World Cup semi-finals and the Euro 2020 quarter-finals. This change has refreshed Portugal. They reached the quarter-finals of Euro 2024 and beat European champions Spain in last year’s Nations League final, sharpening belief before their trip across the Atlantic. Martínez has also squeezed fresh life from Ronaldo, who has scored 25 goals in 30 appearances under him, which is a better goals-per-game return than he achieved under any of his previous national team coaches.

Portugal certainly have the talent to go far. They should top a group consisting of DR Congo (ranked 46th), Uzbekistan (50th), and Colombia (13th). If they win their group, they will face a third-placed team in the round of 32. From there, they will likely play either Canada or Switzerland in the round of 16, with Argentina potentially awaiting them in the quarter-finals.

On paper, they have the form, firepower, and midfield to go deep in the tournament. The hard part is proving this golden cast can finally turn promise into the biggest prize of all. Ultimately, the tournament may hinge on one final question: will the 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo be a help or a hindrance to this team?

I think there is some value in Portugal at 10/1.

10. Netherlands

The Netherlands have been the bridesmaid at multiple World Cups, but never the bride. This summer’s tournament provides the opportunity to make history. The Oranje have never won the World Cup despite boasting numerous famous stars over the decades; even the likes of Johan Cruyff, Marco van Basten, and Dennis Bergkamp came up short. No such attacking icons grace Ronald Koeman’s squad for this North American adventure, but the group remains stacked with quality.

The Dutch were unbeaten across their eight qualifiers, although Poland did hold them to two draws.

Liverpool legend Virgil van Dijk may not quite be the force he was a few years ago, but he remains a world-class, richly experienced centre-back. He leads a talented defence that also features the likes of Micky van de Ven, Jurriën Timber, and Jan Paul van Hecke. However, the Netherlands received a huge blow in April when playmaker Xavi Simons ruptured his anterior cruciate ligament playing for Tottenham. As arguably the most important creative Dutch player, he will be on the sidelines for months and has no chance of making the tournament. Memphis Depay, now his nation’s all-time leading scorer with 55 goals in 108 caps, usually provides the focal point up front, although his inconsistency has long been a source of frustration for club and country alike. He was named in the squad despite making only two substitute appearances for his Brazilian club, Corinthians, over the past two months as he struggled to recover from a hamstring injury. “I selected Memphis because of who he still is. I don’t see anyone else in that position who can do it. I believe he can be an asset, but he does have to get through the coming period well,” coach Ronald Koeman said.

The Dutch are favourites in a group consisting of Japan (18th), Sweden (38th), and Tunisia (45th). Their toughest game is likely to be the opener against Japan, a talented side considered by many to be dark horses, who recently defeated England at Wembley in a friendly. Sweden had a terrible qualifying campaign but managed to qualify through the play-offs via the Nations League. The final group game against Tunisia should be more straightforward, as the North Africans lack real star quality, although they tend to be obdurate opponents who are notoriously hard to break down in major tournaments.

If they win their group, they will play the runners-up from Group C, likely Morocco, in the Round of 32. From there, they will likely face Canada, Switzerland, or the Czech Republic in the Round of 16. A daunting tie against France or Germany would likely await them in the quarter-finals, before a potential clash with Spain in the semi-finals.

While the Dutch seem to be a popular dark horse pick for a few people, it is difficult to see this team realistically challenging the likes of Spain, Argentina, France, Portugal, or England. They should advance through the groups and the early knockout stages, but a deep run feels unlikely. Outright odds of 20/1 accurately reflect this reality.

11. Belgium

Finally liberated from their “golden generation” tag, Belgium enter the 2026 World Cup with a newfound purpose. The Red Devils were perhaps guilty of clinging to their ageing crop of stars for too long in Qatar four years ago.

Belgium did not secure top spot in Group J until the final matchday, but they nonetheless embarked on yet another unbeaten qualifying campaign. There were some challenging moments against North Macedonia and Wales, but the Belgians did enough to top the group and qualify automatically.

Manager Rudi Garcia failed miserably in his previous managerial post at Napoli, lasting just 16 games, but the Frenchman is now enjoying his first taste of the international scene. In the job since January 2025, Garcia has breathed fresh life into the Red Devils following the exit of the rather unpopular Domenico Tedesco. There is a genuine sense heading into the World Cup that Belgium are building towards something positive with Garcia at the helm.

Kevin De Bruyne was the standout performer of Belgium’s qualifying campaign, but this team is truly defined by its wide players. Jérémy Doku is capable of befuddling any full-back one-on-one, while Dodi Lukébakio possesses a lethal left foot when he cuts inside off the right flank. In the engine room, the Aston Villa pairing of Amadou Onana and Youri Tielemans controls the centre of the pitch.

While they look excellent going forward, there are serious question marks defensively. The primary concern lies at centre-back, where Arthur Theate of Eintracht Frankfurt and Zeno Debast of Sporting CP form a vulnerable starting partnership.

Belgium find themselves in a favourable group alongside Egypt (ranked 28th), Iran (21st), and New Zealand (85th). If Belgium win their group as expected, they will face a third-placed team in the Round of 32, before a potential clash against the United States in Seattle in the Round of 16. From there, the path gets significantly steeper, with Spain likely waiting in the quarter-finals, and the Netherlands, France, or Germany looming in the semi-finals.

Belgium are currently sitting at long odds of 34/1 to win the tournament outright. While they should comfortably advance to the knockout rounds, it is difficult to see them upsetting the odds multiple times to win the entire competition.

12. Germany

With Germany, you always used to know what to expect: ruthless efficiency. However, this current iteration is incredibly hard to predict. In the qualifiers, Germany’s performances were mediocre, including a 2-0 defeat in Slovakia that could easily have been heavier. Yet, they were thoroughly convincing in the return fixture, sweeping their opponents aside 6-0 to ultimately win their group comfortably.

The team’s traditional recipe for success has been to adopt the tactical blueprints that work well at Bayern Munich, a formula that led to World Cup triumphs in 1974 and 2014. Initially, the chances of a repeat appear favourable, as this season has gone exceptionally well for Germany’s premier club. Julian Nagelsmann is therefore likely to rely on a heavy Bayern core featuring Jonathan Tah, Aleksandar Pavlović, Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka, Jamal Musiala, and impact substitute Lennart Karl (with Serge Gnabry ruled out through injury). Manuel Neuer also returns to the fold, having ended his international retirement in May to play in his fifth World Cup.

But can this Munich axis truly be relied upon? Musiala is currently out of form and in recent months was not much more influential for Bayern than Goretzka, who sat on the bench for almost all of the crucial matches in the second half of the season yet still seems certain to start under Nagelsmann. Furthermore, Kimmich will play in a different position for Germany than he does for his club, slotting in at right-back rather than in central midfield.

In recent years, Die Mannschaft have lacked a striker who consistently finds the back of the net, especially in high-stakes moments. Kai Havertz remains the favourite to start as the team’s number nine, but there is a growing belief that Nick Woltemade might be the better option after he led the team in scoring during the qualifiers. Clearly, things are far from straightforward for Nagelsmann.

Germany find themselves in a group alongside Ecuador (ranked 24th), Ivory Coast (34th), and Cape Verde (68th). Despite Ecuador impressing during their own qualifying campaign, Germany should still top the group. If they do win Group E, they will face a third-placed team in the Round of 32. However, their path becomes treacherous after that, with a potential clash against France in the Round of 16, the Netherlands in the quarter-finals, and Spain in the semi-finals. It is a far from easy route for Die Mannschaft.

Many punters might be surprised to see Germany sitting at 15/1 in the outright betting markets. However, given their muddled starting line-up, periods of mediocre form, and a brutal potential run to the final, it feels best to take a step back and avoid backing them for this year’s World Cup.

My selections

Spain to reach the semi-finals @ 2.10.

As outlined in the preview above, Spain is in a group alongside Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde. Winning the group would set up a round of 32 clash against the runner-up from Group J, most likely Austria or Algeria. From there, the round of 16 should bring a meeting with Colombia or Croatia, followed by a potential quarter-final against Belgium or the USA. On paper, the Spaniards have the easiest route to the semi-finals of any major contender.

Qatar to lose all group matches @ 2.50.

Qatar lost all three games in front of their own fans at the 2022 World Cup, and things will only get more difficult for them this summer. Since March 2025, they have lost to Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Palestine, to name just a few. They will play hosts Canada, who will be backed by home support, before facing two European sides in Bosnia and Switzerland. With all due respect, these three sides are levels above Qatar.

Argentina team top goalscorer - Messi @ 2.00.

Messi scored eight goals in qualifying. The next best was Julián Álvarez with four. Messi also had the most shots (45), followed by Álvarez with 25. Messi is still the main man. Currently, he is ranked 3rd in the outright market to be the top goalscorer for the tournament. For comparison, the prices for other players in the market are Kane, who is at 1.60 for England’s top goalscorer, Mbappé at 1.61 for France, and Haaland at 1.28 for Norway. The price for Messi seems inflated to me.