Swelbar on Airlines

Vector Labor Day: On Final

William Swelbar — Thu, 03 Sep 2026 15:36:57 GMT

Over the past weeks the number of stories about American’s cabin upgrades and Southwest and lounges leave me bored and yawning. Many months ago, the top of mind for me was about the game of catch-up that every airline was going to play chasing first mover Delta and United’s leads in generating increased revenue in the face of sticky cost increases that began in 2022. I am even beginning to wonder if United is not again playing another version of it catching up with Delta - but that is for another day.

The macroeconomic picture is stupefying. The war with Iran is stupefying. The stock market is stupefying. The bond market is concerning. The job market is concerning. The strength of the dollar is concerning. America’s reputation around the world is frightening. “Little Rocket Man” might have more friends.

The idea of a mature U.S. airline domestic market is accepted by some but not all. TSA traffic for the month of August (you know peak month August) was down 3% versus one year ago. Stupefying.

The airline business has been volume-driven since Alfred Kahn said: “I do not know one airplane from another. I just know that they are marginal cost with wings”. I do not think that most airports are embracing that their business model’s volume driver will be less about volume.

The idea of the U.S. airline industry going into rehab - led by Delta and United who moved first - and beginning the detoxification of its commodity attributes was about renewal. An industry badly in need of a renewal. I love that word.

In the airline industry, the “Lemming Theory” has defined its history. You know - if one airline does something that might differentiate it from others, then the others will assuredly follow. When they do, then we are back at square one and the definition of a commodity industry can be reapplied: an industry defined by “me too” ubiquitous products where price is the primary demand driver and the only way any enterprise can increase its share of anything is to add capacity that leads to lower prices and revenue. And then to fewer airline providers. Whew.

I sure hope that the industry is not renewing 45 years of mostly bad business habits albeit while generating revenue that represents a shift up in its curve. The market can be counterintuitive at times. But I am not so sure this time.

With a few exceptions, the commodity mindset seems to be forming again. Will price be the decision maker to buy one airline’s business class seat versus another airline or will loyalty and the entirety of one airline’s product offerings be the differentiator? As always, this is something I hope to be very wrong about mentioning.

THE “COMMANDER IN GRIFT” MEETS WITH TRAVEL EXECUTIVES

Yesterday, September 2, 2026, the Commander in Grift met with travel executives. He had the audacity to claim credit for a spike in summer international travel. He claimed credit for traffic driven by the World Cup which he played no part in scheduling the event in the U.S. And he actually was quoted as saying:

“It’s a total record we’ve had. The country is thriving,”

Bloomberg’s Skylar Woodhouse reported on the meeting. The reporting cited some really important data points that those of who follow the industry have a sense of like:
A Pew Research Center survey of people in 36 countries released in June found that a majority held an unfavorable view of the US and in many countries confidence in Trump declined since last year.
International arrivals to the US fell 5.5% in 2025 compared to the year prior, before Trump took office, according to the US International Trade Administration. As of this May, arrivals were down 1% year over year, ITA data showed.

Woodhouse wrote: “Travel spending rose 6.2% year-over-year in June to $122.1 billion, according to a White House official, who said the gains were enjoyed by small businesses across the country”. You know why travel spending rose? Because of the increases in fuel and other costs associated with travel that have roots in the grifter’s war. And near the end of the article, it was mentioned that he met with oil refiners in a bid to pressure them to help ease prices at the pump.

When it comes to jet fuel and its strip inside of a barrel of crude oil, we always hope for a warmer winter. Cold winters lead to the demand for heating oil that relies on the same strip inside the barrel of crude. Maybe the commander knows something about climate change that could create another profitable trade for the sycophants.

When U.S. refiners are running at near 100% capacity, why should they ease? After all, it is the crack spread that will hold jet fuel higher for longer. It will hurt certain U.S. airlines. Particularly those that do not possess balance sheets built to withstand higher for longer. This is no longer about a shock.

Renewal is something to celebrate. But at some point, the convergence of the macroeconomy and the health of the U.S. airline industry will meet again, and the celebration just might be cut short. That will be a hell of a lot less stupefying than the many happenings mentioned above.

I am not just troubled, confused, disgusted, and dismayed by those in Washington that do nothing but kiss this guy’s a__. I am actually pissed. Maybe there will be a fortuitous trade to make after the meeting between the Grifter and the travel execs and oil refiners. It just might be a short position.

There are some really cool things to talk about. Really.

The Decision Intelligence Lab Podcast

William Swelbar — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 13:04:55 GMT

I had the distinct pleasure of being asked by a friend from Duluth, MN, Vijay Mehrotra to talk OR and airlines on a podcast he developed along with Michael Watson.

Vijay is now a Professor of Business Analytics and Director, Customer Success Management Initiative at the University of San Francisco School of Management. Michael now teaches at Northwestern University.

My relationship with Vijay began in 1977 or earlier and is as unique as my career path in the airline space. If OR is a discipline for you then this podcast is one to subscribe to - not just for the conversation with me.

The podcast can be found here on Substack at: https://decisionintelligencelab.substack.com/

Thanks to Vijay and Michael for including me.

The Airline Data Project at 2Q 2026

William Swelbar — Thu, 20 Aug 2026 13:56:22 GMT

Aircraft, Utilization And Related Metrics For Substack 2q'2026

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Airline Financial And Operational Profiles For Substack 2q2026

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Balance Sheet Select Items For Substack 2q2026

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Capacity All Regions For Substack 2q2026

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Employee Cost And Productivity By Airline For Substack 2q2026

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Pro Forma Financials By Sector For Substack 2q2026

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Valuations And Profits And Margins By Airline For Substack 2q2026

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Traffic, Actual And Be Load Factors For Substack 2q2026

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Revenue And Expense Detail For Substack 2q2026

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For U.S. Airlines - No More Get Out of Jail Free Cards

William Swelbar — Mon, 03 Aug 2026 20:48:22 GMT

On June 23, we did some math on changes in input costs relative to changes in revenue output contrasting the Value Airlines with the Network Airlines. The math created some very stark outcomes. And…

WSJ Reports that United Airlines Discussed a Merger with Delta Air Lines

William Swelbar — Sun, 26 Jul 2026 22:07:50 GMT

Today, the Wall Steet Journal published a story about how United CEO Scott Kirby discussed the possibility of a combination with Delta Air Lines last year.

It was April 13, 2026, when Bloomberg repo…

Class Warfare: Redefining Today's Airline Industry Structure

William Swelbar — Mon, 06 Jul 2026 14:59:59 GMT

My absence is explained by a search for something different to add. It has not been because of a lack of thinking or drafting, rather time has been spent doing research and reading about how I might…

A4A Airlines Need the Value Airline Sector to be Durable, Sustainable ...

William Swelbar — Tue, 23 Jun 2026 14:25:29 GMT

Tomorrow, June 24, 2026, the House of Representatives Subcommittee on the Administrative State, Regulatory Reform, and Antitrust (Committee on the Judiciary) is scheduled to hold a hearing on airline…

The U.S. Airline Industry and U.S. Open Golf

William Swelbar — Wed, 17 Jun 2026 15:48:18 GMT

The U.S. Open is the most difficult test in golf even before factoring in the weather and the elements that result make the golf course even more difficult. The U.S. airline industry is constantly s…

My Harsh Response to the Recent Hearing on Rural Air Service - Just Another Rehash

William Swelbar — Tue, 09 Jun 2026 14:46:04 GMT

Commercial Aviation: Certain Nonhub Airports Face Significant Challenges in Securing and Maintaining Air Service

Mr. Collins

The Economic Impact of Domestic Service in a Mature Market Is Continually Ov…

What Is the Definition of True and Sustainable Commercial Airline Passenger Demand?

William Swelbar — Tue, 02 Jun 2026 17:22:55 GMT

This post has been in my draft box for more than a week. Start. Stop. Start. Stop.

Personal savings rates have been halved. Inflation-adjusted personal income has declined in 4 of the last 5 quar…

Talking Spirit and the Airline Industry with the Market Insider Show

William Swelbar — Wed, 27 May 2026 11:23:09 GMT

Spirit's Chapter 7 Is but One Story; The Cost of Jet Fuel Is Another Story; There Is At Least Two More

William Swelbar — Sun, 17 May 2026 17:17:19 GMT

FINALLY …

Yesterday morning’s reading included a research note from TD Cowen’s Tom Fitzgerald that said what many do not want to think about or suggest - what about price sensitive air travel consumer…

No Obituary - A Spirited Postmortem; The Value Airline Sector is 2 Models - not 1; A4A's CEO

William Swelbar — Mon, 04 May 2026 13:14:28 GMT

I have purposely stayed away from reading much over the weekend. I did read a couple of posts from folks I pay attention to. The most eloquent piece I read came from Barry Biffle, Frontier’s former…

Should Spirit and Other Value Airlines LIV?

William Swelbar — Tue, 28 Apr 2026 15:31:43 GMT

I woke up to an AthlonSports article this morning in my inbox about the breakaway, Saudi-backed and failing LIV golf tour. LIV Golf’s Biggest Problem Is Not Noise. It Is Viability. In recent weeks …

If the Government ... "Were to Go into the Funeral Business, People Would Stop Dying"

William Swelbar — Sun, 26 Apr 2026 17:01:31 GMT

An iteration of my favorite quote. Marty Shugrue in 1982.

MY DISCLAIMER: I do not want to see the 14,000 jobs at Spirit Airlines lost. I do want to see the highest quality industry with a healthy a…

In the Spirit (Airlines) of Rewarding Bad Behavior

William Swelbar — Thu, 23 Apr 2026 12:10:43 GMT

To bail out Spirit - a historic loss-making airline is (some or many 4-letter words) incredulous. I wrote to clients on Monday suggesting that the government would not bail out one airline to the de…

Neeleman Might Want to Assess Breeze's Balance Sheet Too - Only It Hasn't Been Audited

William Swelbar — Mon, 20 Apr 2026 20:47:35 GMT

This will be the shortest note to date here on my Substack. And it should be heard as being as cynical as the writing intended.

I have been keeping my powder dry on this one for longer than I might…

Value Airlines to Travel to Washington - Will It Be Another Band-Aid, Bailout, or A Real Fix?

William Swelbar — Sat, 18 Apr 2026 12:43:35 GMT

Just a few weeks ago, my post asked: If jetBlue, then Who? As a conclusion I asked:

REMEMBER BACK IN THE DAY ….

When mergers might be approved by applying something called the Failing Carrier Doctrin…

If United Is Serious About a Dance Partner, Is It Really About the Network?

William Swelbar — Wed, 15 Apr 2026 14:00:16 GMT

When it comes to this online stuff, I really do not understand much. I am not a member of the media mafia. I wake up, I read, and if something speaks to me, I write based on a long career of studyi…

Kirby Fatigue

William Swelbar — Tue, 14 Apr 2026 11:11:24 GMT

Controlling the news cycle is one thing. One man has worked hard at that for a lifetime. Since giving an inauguration speech in front of more people than have ever attended in January 2017 and Kell…