The market has been undergoing a large shift across the last two weeks, and today, we had one of the highest level confirmation signals we can get. The monthly chart closed with the first higher high in 14 months for BTC, ETH, and the Total Crypto Market Cap.

When it comes to actual charting, it does not get more high time frame than the 1M chart. Yes, there are larger timeframes like 3M and 6M, but when we start looking at those, we begin to lose track of understanding the overall trend within more immediate terms. The monthly chart, however, is the strongest HTF signal we can observe. We can get bullish closes on the 3D and 1W that can end up being deviations or fake outs, but when it comes to the 1M chart, that does not happen. If the 1M chart holds the line into the close, it signals to us that the trend change from the lower time frames is staying the course, and now following through into the higher ones.

This development continues to add onto our pile of confirmed bottom metrics we have been tallying over the last few weeks, and the argument for the bear continuation case is getting thinner by the day. At this stage, they really do not have much left at all, and although nothing in this game is impossible, It is getting down to as little as a 10% - 15% chance that we have another meaningful move back towards the lows.

We are at a very critical point in the market and every single week we are getting more data come in that updates the general view, and shows us what is likely to happen next. So, without wasting anymore time on this intro, let us dive straight into the data and update where we are!

Let’s get into!

Mega Monthly Close

As briefly mentioned above, the August monthly close was the biggest and most important one we have had in over one year.

For the first time since June 2025, the TOTAL Crypto market cap closed its first monthly higher high candle, and pushed back above the 1D 200 SMA.

But that is not the only high level update. Many very key data pieces have confirmed over the last few days, so let’s go over them now.

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It is an absolutely beautiful weekend here in wintery New Zealand. I have recently returned home from a fairly long trip overseas supporting my wife with her work, catching up with family overseas, and sneaking in a few little trips away just the two of us. It was a great trip, but I have to say… it sure does feel good to be home! This is my first newsletter writing session back at my own desk setup, and I sure have missed my big screens(yes I am somewhat of a nerd for these things). I’m feeling refreshed and ready to smash this next phase of the cycle with you all, and to continue improving/adding the highly accurate indicators/tools that will enable you to elevate your game and perform at the highest level you can.

So, on that note, by popular request, today’s edition is going to be based around some of the indicators that I’ve developed so far. I will cover exactly how they fit into this current market backdrop, how they actually work, look at history to show how they worked, and also how you can utilise all of them to massively level up your investing game without needing to do anything.

Many of these indicators have over 85%+ accuracy rates, and when you combine some of them together, you can get an extremely strong idea on the overall market position that allows you to execute extremely effectively.

I have now created a full suite of 12 indicators that have been rigorously backtested to refine the results, providing the highest form of accuracy that you can get in investing, all completely free for paid subscribers.

Let’s get into it!

Overall Cycle Signals

This is a fantastic(if i do say so myself!) indicator that helps you clearly understand where Bitcoin is within its market cycle. Initially, this was just a bottom signal. However, I have now refined it to become an “Overall cycle signal” that covers every part of Bitcoins cycle.

One of the biggest issues that leaves investors offsides is that they do not know where we are in the Crypto cycle. “Is the bottom in, is this just a higher low or is it the end, or is this now a bear market?” Etc etc. The vast majority of market participants do not possess the level of understanding to be able to recognise the technical nuances of what is happening with the Bitcoin chart(and that is ok), or understand the key levels they need to be looking for. When you combine this lack of knowledge with the collective market sentiment, you are almost guaranteed to make the wrong decisions.

This is because collective sentiment is always wrong at key pivot points, and key pivot points are exactly when you need to be the most right. The vast majority are bearish on large drops and bullish on large pumps, or after large pumps. But more often than not, you need to be doing the opposite of what the crowd says.

This indicator will help you do that.

The “Overall Cycle Signal” works in four ways:

1. Cycle Bottom - This fires when specific conditions arise that show Bitcoin is highly oversold and its downtrend is becoming exhausted.

2. Bull Market - This fires when momentum begins to shift and we exit oversold conditions within a push/volume that is sustained.

3. HTF Bottom - This signal fires during uptrends when the conditions meet the required threshold to show that this is not an actual breakdown, simply a retrace.

4. Bear Market - This signal fires when the conditions meet that show a rolling over of momentum and lack of power in the market.

There are a few things to note about each part of this indicator, and how you can use each signal.

“Cycle Bottom” and “Bull Market” are two different things for a few reasons.

Cycle Bottom attempts to identify when optimal bottom conditions have been reached. This signal serves as a fantastic guide to help you know when to start properly DCA’ng into the market for the first time after a “Bear market” Signal. However, it is not going to be 100% accurate, as you can see in 2022. But it gets you extremely close to it. Trying to time the exact bottom is a fools errand anyway, and is unrealistic to attempt. You’re far better off averaging your buys over the period in which you believe the bottom is close, and the Cycle Bottom signal does exactly that.

Bull market is a very different signal. Unlike Cycle Bottom that helps us identify where the bottom might be so we can DCA, Bull Market fires when the the bottom is very likely confirmed. If you had been following the Cycle Bottom signal and entering the market, once Bull market fires, you can either enter more aggressively now you have confirmation, or simply use it as a way to plan out your eventual selling as the cycle plays out.

HTF Bottom firing is a way to find conviction in the fact that this uptrend is not over. It allows you to scale back into positions you may have taken profit from, or just simply take new positions. If we look at the chart above, we can see that every single time HTF Bottom fired, it was at a very key low. At these time, there are always a lot of chatter about the top being in because the price has been dropping for a while. This signal will help you drown out that uncertainty. Lastly, you can see that we simply do not get a HTF Bottom signal in an extended downtrend(Bear cycle), and it will not mislead you into thinking the bottom is in too early.

Bear Market is rather self-explanatory and I’m sure you all know what this one means. But when it comes to using it, there is an important thing to know. If you look closely at the chart above, when Bear Market fires, it always comes before a dead cat bounce. This is because the conditions of this signal first arise when Bitcoin makes its first decent drop that leads its way into a bear market. From there, we get a weak recovery(dead cat bounce). Therefore, when Bear Market fires, you can understand that the bull cycle is done, but there will very very likely be a dead cat bounce that you can use to fully exit your positions.

Overall, this is a highly useful indicator that drowns out the uncertainty and helps you understand, with a pretty high degree of certainty, where we are in the cycle. The only time this indicator has fired false signals was leading into COVID. That type of Black Swan event breaks the markets natural rhythm and disturbs the signals, which we can’t do anything about. But other than that, it is extremely accurate, and offers a very reliable guide to the overall cycle position.

SYKO REVERSAL SIGNAL

Next up we have the Syko Reversal Signal.

This is a very accurate reversal indicator that helps you identify when a move is running out of steam, and is highly likely to reverse. When combined with the Overall Cycle Signal above, this provides incredible validation into taking positions, but also helps you time key topping areas to unload before we get a Bear Market signal.

Lets breakdown what we have here.

Small hammer and small knife = Short term reversal
Large hammer and large knife = Longer term reversal

Let us pretend we are at the $18k level in 2022 as an example of how we could use these together.

First, we get our Cycle Bottom signal and we begin buying. Next, we go slightly lower, but the large knife reversal signal fires, giving us more confidence that this is the bottom. We buy more. Then, the markets move higher and the Bull market signal prints. A little later, at $28,000, the first large hammer prints and we decide to shave off some profits. Bitcoin then consolidates for 6 months, but because we’ve had a Bull market signal fire, we are confident that this uptrend is going to go on for much longer. As time passes, we continue to shave off profits until we eventually get a HTF Bottom signal, which first prints at $48k. We load back in heavily here and end up catching the move to $107k, where we get another large hammer, and scale out again. We can follow this process until we eventually get the two large hammers at the $120k top, where we continue to sell. Eventually, after the Bear market signal fires, we sell everything we have left on the dead cat bounce.

Pretty neat, aye?

I designed these indicators for this exact reason - to be able to guide you very effectively through the different market moves and drown out the noise. If you followed these signals without hesitation, you would have managed the situation perfectly.

Fast forward to the present day - we have had the Cycle Bottom signal fire, and a small hammer. This indicates some consolidation just before the Bull Market signal prints, which should be in about 5 days. Then, we will wait for the first large hammer to secure some profits on the bags we’ve bought throughout this bottom.

The Syko Reversal Signal is most effective on the 3D and 1W timeframes.

INSTITUTIONAL BUY/SELL SIGNALS

Next up we have the Institutional Buy/Sell signal.

This indicator lets you know when large entities are opening large long positions on Bitcoin, and then, also, when they are aggressively closing them.

Just like the Overall Cycle Signal, It is not 100% accurate at getting every single perfect top and bottom. But as I said before, this is because that is unrealistic and impossible to actually do. Instead, smart money allocates across high-conviction bottom periods and then distributes into high level topping periods. And they get it pretty damn right most of the time.

This indicator serves as another piece of high level confluence that you can add to the Overall Cycle Signal and Syko Reversal Signal. Looking at them altogether on the chart is a bit messy, however, we can see they line up quite very closely to one another. This is great for two reasons.

One, multiple signals giving you the same announcement is very high confluence.

Two, they are all programmed with completely separate data points, meaning these signals are all agreeing, yet, coming from totally different places.

All three indicators mark the cycle lows very very well. With the Syko Reversal Indicator and the Institutional Buy/Sell Signal providing solid guidance throughout the bull run itself.

Bull/Bear Momentum

Next up we have the Bull/Bear Momentum Indicator.

What this indicator shows us is the strength of the bears or the bulls at any given time. We can use this indicator to understand the current market regime, and to help us recognise the time to pivot.

We can see here that Bear cycles begin when the indicator first enters into the red, after being in a strong section of Green. Once it does, it’s time to be on guard. However, admittedly, we can also see that there are several sections of red that show up when we are not in a bear market. But lucky for you, you can use the above indicators already mentioned, to see if anything else bearish is also firing.

The main way in which I use this indicator is to spot the point of the market shifting back to the bulls.

We can see that we’ve just had a prolonged period of Bearish momentum, but now followed by the first large green candle back for the bulls. This kind of bullish momentum reading has only previously been seen during strong bull trends.

Overall, this indicator is a great tool for seeing how strong a bearish or bullish move is.

For example…

We can see looking back at the October top that the price went higher, but the strength of the move was lower. The October 2025 top gave us the lowest bullish reading throughout the whole cycle, and very soon after, broke down.

REALISED VOLATILITY

Next up we have the Realised Volatility indicator.

This indicator shows us periods in which Bitcoins realised volatility is very low. This indicator is an incredible predictor of when large moves are about to happen, but it does not tell us which direction those moves will happen in.

We can see above that the compressed green volatility signals fire when realised volatility is getting really tight. And each time they show up, a big move comes very shortly after.

This is a great indicator to help you understand that large market moves are coming, and you can use the other indicators that I have shown you above, to get a better idea of which way that move might be.

For example…

All the way back in 2018 the green triangles show up right before the -50% drop. However, when this happened, we had not yet had a Cycle Bottom signal after the Bear market signal. Therefore, it would have been fairly safe to assume that there was a decent chance this large move could be to the downside, ultimately leading to the Cycle Bottom - which it did.

All of these indicators have been purposefully built to compliment one another.

ETF Flows

The last indicator I will mention in this edition is the ETF Flows - nice and simple.

This enables you to track the ETF flows right over the Bitcoin chart :)

And that just about covers it for the main bulk of these indicators.

It’s important to note that most of these indicators are designed to help you understand the overall Crypto market position, so therefore, have been built to be used for Bitcoin and TOTAL. Syko Reversal Signal will work on any asset, however.

I have a few more that I am currently finalising, and will be sharing them with you soon. Overall, though, with the 6 indicators I have shared with you here in detail, you have a serious amount of firepower that will massively level up your understanding of the markets. The accuracy rate is over 85% combined, which you cannot really get better than.

You can find the links for all of them below, my friends.

I hope you enjoy them!

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The last week within the Crypto markets has been a very welcome sight. After months and months of crushing price action, ultimately crushing the collective spirits, we had the largest weekly green candle ever on record. I can’t help but let out a chuckle when I think about how brutal these markets are. They will punish any level of complacency to the highest degree, and just when everything seems like its never coming back, it does. And in mighty fashion!

Only in Crypto does the market go from being the most boring ever, to the largest weekly green candle ever, in the space of 7 days. If that completely caught you off guard, let that serve as a reminder for you, throughout the rest of your investing days, that you can never get complacent here. The rally we’ve just had is what’s known as a “lockout” rally. A rally that is so fast and explosive, it doesn’t give anyone a chance to enter. Crypto has a poetically destructive way of misleading the masses at every single major pivot point.

This is because humans are herd animals that seek safety. The vast majority of us will always side with what the vast majority think, as well as giving the most mind to the idea that can be understood the easiest. The 4 year cycle is the perfect case study of this - enabling you to see it play out in real time. It was what the majority believed would happen, and it was super easy to understand, therefore, it became gospel. However, in the markets, and in life, you must think beyond what seems obvious. This is true most especially in Crypto because the market makers are real, and they are absolutely trying to make you part with all your money. They will emotionally manipulate you and force you make wrong decisions at the worst times, siphoning your hard earned dollars straight into their own pockets. They will do whatever they can to mislead you, and narratives like the 4 year cycle are absolutely prime candidates to ensure this happens.

But now that we’ve had this aggressive market shift, where does it leave us? Do we have enough to be 100% confident the bottom is secured? Since the previous edition, we have a lot more data to work with. Therefore, today, I’m going to provide you with the most up to date data about where we are, go over all of the important metrics, and evaluate to what degree we can be confident that the bear market is over, and what potential things we need to look out for as we move forward. In addition, I’ll update my mid cycle thesis now that Bitcoin has begun to move.

Before we jump in, this weeks free indicator is my “Bull/Bear Momentum” graph. This very accurately shows us the meaning behind moves, and allows you to get ahead of the curve at very key market inflection points, adding major confluence to other buy and sell indicators.

This indicator will be availble for download at the end of the edition for paid subscribers.

Let’s get into it!

Has Bitcoin Secured The Bottom?

It is my view that we now have sufficient evidence to show that the macro bottom for this bear cycle is pretty robust. However, the next phase of this process is getting the full confirmation.

Let us break it down.

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Well… what a week so far, hey? An absolutely beautiful move from Bitcoin & Ethereum, utterly destroying the bears in every way possible, racking up the largest short liquidations in history. Perfect.

I am feeling really pleased with the overall outcome of this market price action after everything we have been covering over the past few weeks/months, and I hope you are too. Getting you all on the right side of this has been a great pleasure for me. Thank you for sticking with me and also thank yourselves for staying the course. I promise I will continue to guide you through this next phase and ensure you make the absolute most out of it you can, and keep these newsletters as high value as possible.

The title of last 4 main editions have been:

1. Seeing through the boredom
2. Ethereum the sleeping giant
3. The start of the next bull
4. Volatility is coming

And all of them have led us perfectly into this outcome we have now actualised, within this recent market move. There aren’t many better feelings than putting in all the hours of analysis, taking all the chances when positioning for it to happen, and then actually seeing it happen. Especially when so many were against these ideas for so long.

Here is a section taken from “The Start of the next Bull” where I provided you my analysis on when I thought this would all get going again.

“We have established that:

1. Each sell off has become weaker with buyers taking over

2. Price has been consolidating for almost as long as 2022 bottom(the longest ever in HTF oversold)

3. STH cost basis is nearing the price

4. STH holders are gearing up for their 4th attempt at breaking out into 55%+ profit

5. Our “Bull market” signal is set to fire at $69,000.

With 2022 being the longest consolidation period in bitcoins history, I think we can be fairly confident that this range is going to resolve within the next 21 days, give or take a week. And with price only $5,000 below our $69,000 “Bull market signal position, we are very close.”

Very close we were, and very much past $69,000 we now are.

So, unlike the last few weeks, today, we have a lot to update. Let’s crack on straight into everything thats happened and where we likely go from here!

Indicators Rule

One thing I am especially pleased with is how well these indicators have performed after all the work and backtesting I put into building them for you all. No indicators are perfect, and to expect them to be is folly. But I am genuinely over the moon with how well some of them are working.

Let us review these and go over, now that we have hindsight, how you can use them in your own analysis to always get on the right side of these moves.

Firstly, the “Realised Volatility” indicator was alerting us that something big was about to come. Obviously, and as stated a fair few times to you guys, very tight compression doesn’t automatically equals that the price will eventually explode upwards. However, it is a very handy tool to use alongside other indicators to help us form the picture of an incoming and highly explosive upside move.

Just like our “Institutional Buy + Sell” Signal.

We can get a solid idea that volatility is compressing hard, and then layering this over, see how the smart money is positioning. And we could see last week, they had never been positioning this net long before. Even still though, there have been times where they have positioned and price has gone lower, just like in 2022. Albeit, only for a very short period.

But then we have the Syko Reversal Indicator to help us layer this even deeper.

We can see that we fired a High conviction(double knife) reversal indicator on the drop to $58k. This has only fired once before in recent history, which was the 2022 bottom.

So using only these 3 indicators we could establish.

1. Volatility was extremely tight, signalling a large move

2. Institutions were net longer than ever

3. A very rare reversal signal fired at $58k

This gave us a very clear picture that the upcoming volatility was highly likely to be to the upside. Of course, we can never be fully sure of this, but with this kind of data confluence, it is as close as we can really ever get.

And lastly, we are just waiting for the “Bull market” signal to print.

This has already crossed the threshold required, but a part of the indicator is based on EMA’s, so they take a little bit of time to catch up after such a violent move. I expect this to print over the coming days, but it is already well above where we need it to be to confirm.

All of these indicators are available to paid subscribers, completely free as part of Syko Therapy. Links to them are at the end of the edition.

If you aren’t a paid subscriber, joining up with provide you 2x weekly in-depth newsletters, assessing the market and helping you position to capitalise on the kind of move we have just seen. In addition, you get access to a full suite of 12 indicators to help you outperform the market.

Let’s now dive into exactly what has happened here, where are now, and what to expect next. Paid subscribers section.

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Firstly, Bitcoin is still at $64,000. How many weeks have I been writing to you now and Bitcoin has been at this price? Crazy.

This stillness is actually captured in a BTC index chart that measures the volatility, and it probably comes as no surprise to you that we are currently at record lows. We have been trading in a meagre 8% range for 7 weeks now, which is absolutely unprecedented. What this means is that we have some very extreme volatility on the horizon, and it has to be coming soon. You can imagine this current situation like a spring coiling - the longer this volatility compresses like this, the more aggressive its release will eventually be.

So today, we are going to analyse this record breaking volatility, how it relates to our current position and other similar periods, and what is likely to be coming next.

Included in this edition will be my brand new, Institutional Buy + Sell Signal, that has insane accuracy. Trade like smart money easily with this one indicator! As always, this indicator is free for all paying subscribers and the full details will be at the end of the article :)

Let’s get into it, friends!

Prepare For Explosions

It is a law of the universe that the more something compresses, the more violent the reaction will eventually be. This can be imagined using the spring analogy from above, or an earthquake, volcano, and even a dying sun. Eventually, the energy compresses to a point where it simply cannot take it any longer, and extreme volatility proceeds the lack of it.

That is where we are right now.

Other than now, there are only two different periods in which Bitcoin had such a lack of volatility.

• Jan 2023

• July 2023

The other two periods were the start of the recent bull cycle, and a short time after the bottom of 2022. Both of these ended up creating more upside, but the one in July initially gave us a move down.

This is why it’s important to note that extreme low volatility does not guarantee that the price will move higher. It just means it’s going to move, and move fast. In some of the lesser(almost as low) extreme volatility periods, we can see this more clearly.

The most notable situation here is in the 2018 bear market where we ended up dropping another 50%.

Is that going to happen this time?

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Todays edition is dedicated to what I believe is the most important chart in the entire Crypto space. Any guesses?

This one chart tell us more about the overall market position, and where we should be focusing our attention, than any other chart possibly could. Now, you would’ve seen me reference this chart a number of times throughout the analysis I create for you here. However, I recognise the fact that some of you might not truly understand why this chart is as important as it is, and also not fully grasp everything that goes into this one piece of data.

So today, I will be doing an in-depth overview into this chart, what it signifies, what it means at different phases, and why it is so important in understanding the overall Crypto market position.

Before we dive into that, I’m excited to share that I will be providing paid subscribers with another high-level, completely free indicator today. My goal here isn’t just to tell you things, it’s to help you become better traders/investors, and these custom indicators I have designed will do exactly that!

This indicator is a Syko Sell indicator, that with a 90%+ accuracy rating, helps you get ahead of decent market drops(you can see it yourself below). This accuracy rating is as good as it gets. If you’re not a paid subscriber yet, upgrading your subscription today provides you access to all these indicators(with more to come), included in the newsletter subscription.

Sneak Preview

Anyway, the chart I am talking about is the ETH/BTC chart.

Let’s dive in!

What Is It?

First and foremost, you need to understand exactly what the ETH/BTC chart is.

ETH/BTC is an index that charts for us the relationship between Ethereum and Bitcoin. It signals to us the periods in which Ethereum is more dominant, and the then on the opposite side, the period in which Bitcoin is more dominant.

The relationship between these two is incredibly important for many reasons, but most simply, they are the two largest assets in the space and together, account for almost 70% of the total crypto market cap between them.

Above is the basic definition of what this chart is, but the overall picture goes much deeper than that.

ETH/BTC = LIQUIDITY

Everything in Crypto is about liquidity. ETH/BTC is our proxy for how that liquidity is behaving and will likely behave for a while into the future.

A very important thing to understand is that liquidity has a very strict process in which it manoeuvres its way through the market. It is not random, not by any means. And I am going to show and explain to you why ETH/BTC is so important to understand where liquidity currently is, and where it wants to go. By reading the ETH/BTC chart correctly, we can get a fantastic read on what is highly likely to unfold over the following 12 months and beyond.

Let us first cover off some core principles about how liquidity moves through the market.

Bitcoin is the king that sits atop the Crypto throne. Almost all liquidity flows through the King, and the King decides in which way the market moves. We have all seen it. You can have the most bullish altcoin in the world, but if Bitcoin decides it wants to go lower, your altcoin is getting dragged lower - absolutely nothing it can do. This is because Bitcoin controls the liquidity in the market and if Bitcoin is losing value, then the overall space is losing value. On the other side of this, however, if Bitcoin is gaining in value, then so too is the space.

“A rising tide carries all ships”.

Now, to understand how liquidity flows through the Crypto market, you can imagine it like a champagne glass tower.

The champagne is the liquidity, the glasses are the way in which it moves through the market.

First and foremost Bitcoin sits at the top and gets its fill, has its run, dominates the market, and everything else goes thirsty. We have seen this happen in live reality, over the last few years, as the first half of this major cycle has been totally dominated by Bitcoin. From there though, once Bitcoin has had its fill, the champagne then begins to pour into the lower glasses, starting firstly with ETH. Once ETH has had its fill, it then moves its way through the lower glasses(altcoins), and the cycle moves toward the end game.

At that point the champagne runs out - party’s over! It’s been drunk by all the sellers and smart money, and the dancing stops. Once the champagne has been drunk, the market has a large hangover(bear market), and no one wants any champagne for a while. Eventually, as time passes and the headaches wear off, the market gets a taste for champagne again, but not much, and the process starts over again with there only being enough Champagne for the Bitcoins glass.

We can see how this works in live time by checking out the ETH/BTC chart.

Let’s break this down.

At the true cycle top ETH/BTC begins a downtrend, meaning that ETH is losing strength against BTC. This means either more liquidity is flowing into BTC then ETH, or more is flowing out of ETH than BTC. Either way, the result is the same. BTC is more dominant. And in a weak market, during a full cycle bear and then first stage bull, BTC is always more dominant because it is the largest and safest asset.

Between 2018 and 2020 when this process is happening, both BTC and ETH are in a bear market, entering a new bull. As the new bull gets underway the overall space has a mid cycle run where BTC pushes all the way until it is only 40% from ATH. However, ETH barely pushes at all and tops out over 400% away from its ATH. Altcoins, nonexistent.

Sound familiar?

The same thing has happened within this cycle. BTC made new highs(ETFs, adoption, regulation), ETH did not. And we can see that this was always going to happen when we observe how the ETH/BTC chart was behaving. Both times, liquidity was heavily concentrated into BTC as it stole the show, and gave hardly any to the rest of the market.

Then things changed - ETH/BTC bottomed.

From that point onwards in 2019, ETH went on to 20x.

Bitcoin went on to 6x.

As ETH/BTC put in that bottom, it showed us that the overall market dynamic had shifted. That liquidity was not leaving ETH as aggressively as before, it was beginning to enter it. We could see, observing ETH/BTC, the period of outperformance that was going to come. And we are in a very similar position today.

ETH/BTC Tells Us Overall Cycle Position

Now that we understand how the liquidity cycle works within the Crypto market, we can understand the way in which ETH/BTC is the most important chart for showing us where that liquidity cycle currently is.

We can see that each previous market top was totally aligned with a large ETH/BTC run.

What is pictured there is BTC leading, with the liquidity flowing from BTC to ETH, ETH/BTC pushing hard, ETH pushing harder, and the liquidity cycle reaching its climax before everything tops out at around the same time. At that point, BTC begins its period of becoming more dominant again. This time, however, things could not look more different.

Within this current cycle the ETH/BTC bottom was actually very close to the Bitcoin top. However, if this was truly the overall cycle top, the liquidity cycle would be ending, and ETH/BTC would be entering a HTF downtrend, not a HTF uptrend.

Through ETH/BTC, the liquidity cycle is telling us that it has only just begun the phase in which it starts to favour ETH and the lower parts of the market.

This is a period that takes time and does not happen overnight. But as we can see from the ETH/BTC chart, once this process begins to happen, it happens over the period of years, and does not simply enter a new trend for a matter of months and reverse again.

This is why the ETH/BTC chart is the strongest chart out there for the mid cycle phase/correction that I believe we are in. It is not just a chart on a screen, it is literally showing us the overall liquidity picture of the Crypto market and how that is effecting the strength of ETH against BTC. Champagne has started to leak over into ETH more than BTC, and it is a process that once it starts, will continue until it is done, and we reach the end of the party.

It doesn’t get much cleaner than this guys.

ETH/BTC bottoming and moving into an uptrend, as BTC corrects mid cycle.

What this tells us is that BTC is no longer dominant, and if we were at the end of the liquidity cycle, just like we have been at the previous highs in 2017 and 2021, BTC would be heavily dominant. That is just the way it works.

BUT WHY DOES IT WORK THAT WAY?

In addition to the ETH/BTC chart being about liquidity, it also tells us a story on overall investor sentiment.

After a true cycle ending bear market, everything has been absolutely destroyed from screaming ATHs across the board. As the market finds its bottom, sentiment is so bad that investors only really feel safe putting money into Bitcoin as it is:

1. Very low and heavily oversold after a likely 75% - 80% drop

2. The largest and “safest” asset in Crypto

So, therefore, naturally, it is the first asset to receive new liquidity, which ultimately begins the next cycle.

After time, Bitcoin goes on its run and rises higher, kinda dragging the rest of the market with it, but not really. As I showed you guys above, the wider market doesn’t really move in the first half of a cycle as ETH/BTC is in a downtrend.

From that mid cycle correction point as ETH/BTC bottoms, things change. Bitcoin starts to move again, but now the mid cycle point is over, the momentum is back into the market and investors begin to eye other opportunities after BTC has already had its first decent run. The market continues to move and ETH and other large alts begin to move well, and continue to keep moving well.

As the upper part of the market gathers momentum and Bitcoin starts its final run, more and more people feel bullish and comfortable seeking other opportunities. The liquidity continues to pick up pace in the lower parts of the market, until you eventually get the alt szn style of market run that marks the overall top.

What you have to understand is none of this is random guys - it is all a gradual process with one action naturally leading to the other, in an emotional decision making process by investors, based on what is happening within the liquidity cycle and how they respond to it.

1. BTC moves first after the bear because no one believes in anything else

2. After BTC moves sentiment improves and people seek other opportunities

3. People seeking those opportunities creates rising prices, and therefore, more people seek them

4. Now BTC and the assets in the higher end of the market are all moving, things become even more bullish

5. Investors, now very bullish, seek even more opportunities lower down

6. The bottom half of the market starts to move hard and even more investors seek opportunities

7. All the way until micro caps are flying and the market is euphoric

8. Aaaaaaand things a bit silly just before its all over

This gradual process has marked every single market cycle ever, not just in Crypto. It is a gradual phase from max bearishness to max bullishness, ignited by the liquidity cycle. And, using the ETH/BTC chart, we can accurately understand where we are in that within that the liquidity cycle, and therefore, the overall market cycle.

What ETH/BTC is showing us at this very moment is that it is not at its cycle high. It is only just past its cycle low. That ETH is stronger than BTC, after 5 years of BTC being dominant. If we had already followed the full liquidity cycle, ETH/BTC would be in a strong downtrend along with BTC, but it is not.

Overall, for every reason I have provided above, ETH/BTC is our main indicator for which phase the overall cycle is in.

I hope that makes sense :)

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First off, I hope you are all enjoying the custom indicators I have designed and built for you, all through my own experience and testing. I’m very happy with how they have turned out, and I look forward to using them in my analysis for this newsletter and the markets in general. If you have missed any of these, I will leave the links for all of them at the end of this edition :)

Markets wise, Bitcoin continues to compress within a very tight range, having traded between $61,000 and $66,000 since the start of July. That is an absolutely tiny trading range of only 8%, throughout the last 6 weeks. And as discussed within recent editions, these kind of very tight compressions almost always end up resolving in a very explosive manner. So, therefore, the question is not “Will we move explosively again?” It is just a matter of when it happens. In this edition I am going to do my best at answering that question for you, and diving into the on-chain world to piece together the data and see how things are shaping up under the surface of the price itself.

When the market gives us these types of bottoming structures things genuinely feel like they will never move again. The vast majority of people lose complete interest in anything to do with the markets and simply forget that things actually do go up in price. And contrary to what most believe, the next bull market doesn’t start when the price is rallying hard, it starts right now, whilst things have totally calmed and the market is hammering out a bottom.

There is a fairly famous saying that says “The worst day of the bear market is the first day of the next bull”. And this is true because the worst day of the bear is when you get that final capitulation, very likely what we had on the drop to $58,000, which then marks the end of the harsh capitulations and starts the fully bottoming structure that eventually sends us to higher prices. Which is funny, because it is at this point where everyone who has stayed engaged during the whole drop, loses interest, right when the market starts putting in the work to turn around.

So, enough jabbering on here. Let’s dive in to this weeks main market breakdown edition and see when this bottoming phase might come to an end.

Bitcoin Price Action

If you have been following me on X you will have seen I have been sharing a fair bit of content around my expectations for the Low Time Frame price action, and how I think things are going to move within that manner. I am currently in a Bitcoin short from $65,000 that I am expecting to run to $60,500.

As paid subscribers, I am going to fully break this down for you today, and why I am in that position. Price movements are not random, they are always seeking liquidity, and every piece of price action tells us a story. When the price compresses for a long time, lots of liquidity builds up either side, which is what ends up giving us that explosive move I have been discussing.

Here is how it all works and how to identify how things might play out from here.

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Today I am going to go over, in detail, all of my thoughts to do with Ethereum. It’s performance this cycle, where its currently at, and what I believe is likely to happen as we move forward into the remainder of this cycle. There’s no two ways about it - this has been a very challenging cycle for Ethereum and altcoin holders so far.

The common consensus is that Ethereum is failing and has had a weak cycle. But I do not share this view whatsoever, and in Crypto, almost always, the general consensus of how good something is, simply comes down to how high the number of its token currently sits. And it is for this exact reason why the vast majority of investors never manage to secure profitable positions, because they only see value in the number going up, not what it is actually doing before the number goes up. You could have the exact same asset with the exact same attributes, and when it is priced at $10 no one thinks it’s any good, and then 3 months later when its pushed to $100, everyone thinks its good - even though the attributes haven’t changed at all. This is the kind of position I think we are at with Ethereum.

It has had a challenging cycle, with extremely trying and exhausting price action - sure. But at the exact same time, it has been building one of the strongest fundamental and adoption cases within the entire space. The crowd aren’t interested in it because the price has been difficult, and because the price has been difficult, it is seen as “dead”. But in my opinion, that could not be further from the truth.

So, within this edition, I will cover every single part of Ethereum and why I believe it is more bullish than the crowd currently perceive.

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Now, lets get back to the newsletter.

Mass Adoption

You hear this term every now and again in Crypto. The dream of mass adoption and how decentralised technology will end up touching every part of daily lives. And although this can sometimes be blown out of proportion, I genuinely believe Ethereum will achieve some sense of mass adoption over the next 10 years. Before you reject this idea, bare with me throughout this newsletter.

Cast your mind back 20+ years ago. A world without iphones, social media, and very basic internet. If we push back 25 years ago, there isn’t really internet at all. Now, within that relatively short space of time, our world has been revolutionised by the internet and smart phones. Every single thing we do on a daily basis is in some way connected to tthe internet and smart phones. Back then, if you had told someone that this would be the case today, you would have had many doubters, simply because in that moment they only know what they know, and struggle to see what has never been before. And this is how it is at every revolutionary jump in civilisation. The same thing would have happened with cars, electricity, telephones, aviation, the list goes on.

Decentralised tech/Tokenisation and AI is that next evolution, and it is happening right now, under our very eyes. But the crowd can’t see this because the price has not reflected it yet.

EVERYTHING IS GOING ONCHAIN

In the same way that everything moved online, everything will be moving on-chain. Everything will be tokenised. And this is simply because it is the superior evolution of the internet. The audibility, speed and trust-less nature of decentralised technology far outweigh the current systems the world is built upon. Maybe, far down the track from here, it won’t be Ethereum that wins this race, but there will be a winner.

However, as of right now, the clear winner is Ethereum.

And over the last few years, Ethereum has been building an insane level of momentum through government, institutional and enterprise level adoption, whilst the crowd continues to ignore it all, because of price.

Let’s go over the main bulk of what is happening both in front of, and behind the scenes in terms of this tokenisation and adoption with gov/institutions.

• Ethereum (mainnet + L2s) has dominated tokenised real-world assets (RWAs) and funds, typically holding 60% or more of tokenised RWAs and a majority share of tokenised funds (over 57% in mid-2026 data). Tokenised fund levels expanded sharply, from low single digit billions toward $30B+ range.

• BlackRock’s BUIDL (USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund): Remains the flagship, reaching ~$2.5–2.9B AUM.

• JPMorgan: Launched MONY on public Ethereum in December 2025 (seeded with $100M of its own capital). Followed with a second fund, JLTXX (OnChain Liquidity-Token Money Market Fund), in May 2026, designed partly as a reserve asset for stablecoin issuers. JPM Coin became available to institutional clients on Base (Ethereum L2) around April 2026.

• Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, Amundi, Invesco, and others: Multiple tokenised money market / government securities funds live or expanded on Ethereum. Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager, has been actively involved in tokenised products and settlements.

• Crédit Agricole: On July 1, 2026, launched the MiCA-compliant euro stablecoin EURXT on Ethereum. The first live use was settling a subscription into a tokenised Amundi Luxembourg UCITS money market fund described as a European first for euro stablecoin settlement of a tokenised UCITS fund. Initial circulation 20 million tokens, fully backed 1:1 by euro reserves.

• Broader RWA activity: Ethereum mainnet alone hosted $15–17B+ in tokenised RWAs in various mid-2026 snapshots (higher when including L2s), with strong shares in Treasuries, private credit, and funds. Players like Ondo, Securitize, ChinaAMC, and others issued products. Overall on-chain RWA markets grew substantially.

• Other institutional builds: Examples include tokenised stocks/ETFs (e.g., Kraken xStocks, Ondo Global Markets), Ant Group’s Jovay L2 for institutional tokenisation, ADI Chain (backed by IHC/Abu Dhabi interests), and various bank/asset manager pilots moving to production.

What we can see here is that the largest institutions and government bodies have already launched tokenisation on Ethereum.

Now, I know you would’ve known about some of the above, but I bet you did not know about all of them. Because a lot of this is happening quite silently, in the background, while the biggest financial bodies in the world gain traction on the Ethereum network.

LAYER 2’s & STABLECOINS

On top of all the above, Ethereum is the chain and foundation of choice for anything of true large scale significance.

• Ethereum and its L2s consistently hold the largest share of global stablecoin supply, often 50% - 60% on mainnet alone, with $155–168B+ in 2026 snapshots against a global market that approached or exceeded $300B.

• Robinhood Chain: Public mainnet launched around July 1, 2026. Focused on financial services, tokenised assets/stocks; quickly showed high throughput and activity. Robin Hood is one of the biggest investement platforms in the USA.

• Base (Coinbase): Continued as a leading L2 by activity, users, and volume. Frequently cited in institutional contexts. Coinbase is one of Cryptos native largest companies.

Anyone who is anyone, is building their tokenisation and stable-coin services on top of Ethereum. It is already, quite literally, the home of digital finance.

It IS Crypto.

ETFs

Then we lastly have the ETFs in terms of $ETH accumulation:

• U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs: Accumulated cumulative net inflows exceeding $11B with BlackRock’s ETHA being the leader. Staking-enabled products also launched, e.g BlackRock ETHB distributing staking rewards.

• Corporate digital asset treasuries (e.g., BitMine, SharpLink) accumulated large ETH holdings, collectively meaningful percentages of supply in peak reports (billions of dollars). ETFs + treasuries held over 10 million ETH at points in 2025.

• Broader access: Morgan Stanley / E*TRADE enabled ETH (alongside BTC/SOL) trading for eligible customers. Brokerages and platforms expanded on-chain product offerings.

Overall, the Total Value Secured On Ethereum in 2026 is $300bn+

To give us a true idea of the scale of dominance.

Don’t get me wrong, this is not to slight Solana - I hold $SOL. They will have different roles in the future. I am only comparing them here like this because it demonstrates the sheer scale of what Ethereum is doing in this space.

So, I think its pretty easy to establish from everything that has happened so far, and the momentum that Ethereum has gained adoption wise over the last 18 months, that this is not something that is just going to stop, regardless of price action. Tokenisation is not just all of a sudden going to not be a thing, and it is clear that Ethereum is the chosen network for any level of serious player that values their security. Ethereum is it.

Although I mentioned mass adoption at the beginning, that was mainly to make the point that the overall vision is far beyond what we see now. However, I know you guys aren’t interested in what happens by 20 years. You want to know what happens in the next 1-2 years, and rightly so! It’s great that Ethereum has all of these very positive attributes and adoptive momentum, but what about the price bro?

So let’s now talk about the chart, price, and how things may look over the next 1- 2+ years.

How Much Will The Numba Go Up?

At the end of the day, that is the main thing we care about, and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that - we are investors. I genuinely enjoy the fundamental aspect of this space and the changes that are happening, but I would be hard pressed to say that I would be here as much as I am if I was not financially involved in the outcome.

So, ultimately, the fundamental and adoptive aspects of this are important because they provide the insight into value creation. But that value must reflect into the price of $ETH for it to actually mean anything.

With that in mind, before I start pulling up charts, I want to talk about the value accrual into the $ETH token, and cover off some very key FUD about that.

“The ETH Token Doesn’t Accrue Value Bro”

Don’t you find it interesting how FUD always comes out when an asset’s price is at its lows? Well, it’s not interesting, really, it’s just human emotion. Humans have a very bad habit of inventing things to fear when a situation isn’t going the way they expected.

One of the biggest critiques of the ETH token right now is that it “doesn’t accrue value” and is therefore not valuable. I want to quickly put this to bed before we even look at the chart.

In short, Ethereum is not a company. You cannot look at it like a product driven business and value it the same way you value a stock based on sales or earnings. The reason so many people fail to understand ETH’s value capture is because they are looking at it through the wrong lens.

• Ethereum is a network that secures capital.

• The vehicle that secures that capital is $ETH.

• $ETH is not a stock. It is a token, a gateway, and a lock.

The value of $ETH is therefore directly connected to the amount of capital the Ethereum network secures. If Ethereum is going to secure trillions of dollars, you cannot have the token that does the securing only worth a few tens of billions. That would be an economic vulnerability.

$ETH is the economic security layer of the network and It does this primarily through staking.

Roughly 41.4 million ETH (about 34% of the total supply) is currently staked, locking down over $78–88 billion in pure economic security. That staked ETH is what makes attacking the network prohibitively expensive. The more capital the network secures (stablecoins, RWAs, DeFi, L2s, tokenised funds, etc.), the more valuable the security layer needs to be, and the more demand there is for ETH itself = high value.

On top of staking there are multiple ongoing demand sinks:

• Gas fees (even at low levels, every transaction still requires ETH)

• L2 settlement and data availability

• Collateral in DeFi

• The growing tokenised RWA and fund market that prefers to settle on Ethereum

All of these create continuous structural demand for the token that sits at the base of the stack. So when people say “ETH doesn’t accrue value,” what they usually mean is “I don’t see a traditional P/E ratio.” They’re right, there isn’t one. But that doesn’t mean there’s no value accrual. It just means the value accrues through economic security and network demand rather than corporate profits. The more capital Ethereum secures, the more valuable the lock that secures it must become.

That lock is $ETH.

I hope that breakdown has helped you understand the value capture and proposition, friends.

The Ethereum Chart

There are many people out there who disagree with me, but imo, $ETH is vastly undervalued.

Remember, when we are making this judgement we are not just thinking about today. We are thinking about what has happened up until today, and where that momentum takes us 1, 3, 5, and 10 years down the line. And based on the position Ethereum is taking in the global shift to tokenisation, its token is very undervalued.

$ETH will be the lock that secures the global digital financial system - all of the largest institutions are already building on it.

However, we cannot deny the fact that the chart is not reflecting this. BUT that is exactly the kind of opportunity that you want as an investor.

The entire game here is finding an asset that is undervalued based on its current position and future, and buying it before that value is actualised into reality. If you cannot see why that is the objective, then you should not be investing your money, because you do not understand how to play.

$ETH has been building one of the largest ever bases for any asset I have ever seen. I am not sure there is an asset that like this that has a base as long as this, at 5.5 years. And these kinds of bases are very boring during them, but VERY explosive and strong once they are done.

As an example, and one of the main ones I can find with a longer consolidation, GOLD had a very similarly shaped range at 2,184 days. From there, it went on to push in price for even longer than that at 2,353 days.

I’m not saying that $ETH will pump for 7 years straight. The point I’m making here is that these kinds of ranges are almost always an asset building extremely strong foundations for the next phase of their price cycle.

“The bigger the base, the higher in space”.

One thing I have to admit and be clear on is that I did not expect $ETH to get back to this low level. The range dropped further than I thought and that has indeed lengthened out the timeframe for the eventual expansion of the price again.

But is is my view that the suppression of the price can only go on for so long, and the longer it goes on, the more violent the repricing will be.

With everything that is happening within the overall Crypto market, and the adoption we are seeing, and the range in which Ethereum is developing, we are getting very close to the end of this range bound price action.

This is most evident when we deeply analyse the ETH/BTC chart.

ETH/BTC tells us the story.

It has been in a breakdown/consolidation since 2017. It has not had a bull cycle since 2017. For these last 9 years ETH/BTC has been compressing, and at this stage, is getting very close to breaking above that 9 years resistance.

Multi-year descending triangles/wedges of this duration almost always resolve in the direction of the preceding major trend (which for ETH/BTC was strongly up from 2016–2017), and the longer and tighter the compression, the more explosive the eventual move tends to be.

This all aligns with the $ETH chart and how the overall range is reaching its climax phase. And what this shows us is that this next phase of the cycle will be the first time in 9 years that $ETH will truly outperform Bitcoin again.

PRICE PREDICTIONS

After we lost our $74,000 level on Bitcoin that invalidated the fastest and most aggressive recovery, the price path forward changed for Crypto overall.

However, I believe this is very much the low point for $ETH. In the instance we get the push down to the Realised Cap on BTC at $54,000, I think the worst case for $ETH would be a sweep of the current $1,500 low. But I do not think that as a high probability. Just like $54,000 on BTC, I see that as a worst case scenario.

What I expect for $ETH here is a relatively steady rise back towards the highs for the rest of this year, closing out 2026 above $3,000 - $3,500, with Bitcoin back around $100,000. This is a much lower target than what I anticipated at the beginning of this year, but a great deal has changed within 2026 and we have to adapt.

Moving into 2027 and 2028, my base case is that we will see a true cycle high on $ETH of a minimum of $10,000. More likely, $15,000.

I understand these kinds of price targets can sound unreasonable, especially now. Everyone has forgotten that price do actually go up, and you only need to look at each cycle end period to remind yourself how quickly and aggressively they go. That will happen again, friends.

$10,000 is a 2x from its ATH, which is not a high target for an asset with such incredible fundamentals and future growth.

In short - $10,000 - $15,000 cycle high is a conservative target. If we get a 2017 style blow off top with ETH/BTC breaking out of the huge triangle, $15,000+ is possible.

A very important piece of data that you might not be aware of here, is that in each cycle high, ETH has topped out 14x lesser than Bitcoin.

2017:
BTC - $19,500
ETH - $1,400

$1,440 X 14 = $19,600

2021:
BTC - $69,500
ETH - $4,860

$4,860 X 14 = $68,040

You can see clearly there has been a certain correlation between the assets and their topping out behaviour.

If we were to end up with our minimum BTC top target of $300,000 in 2028, that would give us a top for ETH at $21,400.

Now, of course, I am not going to predict that to happen. Even though I truly believe all the pieces are there for that to not be out of the question, it is just a correlation from two previous cycles. Very interesting though, don’t you think?

However, overall, the future looks very bullish for Ethereum. Timeframes can always take longer, and price predictions are just that… predictions. But the one thing that is undeniable is the trajectory of ETH and the scale at which is it being adopted.

At the end of the day, the price can only lag for so long.

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• Quick note - I really appreciate you guys being part of Syko Therapy, and I really enjoy providing this content for you. I want to provide as much value as I can on this newsletter, so in case you missed it before, I will sending 2x newsletters per week from this week, with the second one covering different specific topics. Ok, back to it!

Another week of not too much happening price wise whilst the timeline reaches towards peak boredom and hopelessness. And it is no surprise when you consider the last few months. Overall now, we have been trading around the $60,000 level for 6 months. We had one decent rally that unfortunately ended up being a fakeout, and other than that, it has been never ending sideways chop. Since we hit $58,000, it has been 60 days trading between $58,000 and $66,000. That is just over a 10% trading range for about 2 months. Very very low volatility for such a traditionally volatile asset.

But during times like these we have to ensure that we remember what it actually means. It is a known fact that within investing, at peak pivot points, the majority lose. So we have to always consider that we are not following along with the majority. We have to remember that this kind of boring price action does not mean that we will get boring price action forever. The longer it goes on, the more bored people get and the more they check out. When in reality, the longer this goes on, the closer things are to becoming explosive again. These kinds of periods in the market where we consolidate for ages after massive amounts of liquidations and losses, are almost always periods where we solidify a new floor to eventually break higher from. We must be most interested and least bored at times like this because it is within these periods that we position ourselves for when the fun starts again.

Therefore today, I’m going to give us our usual market breakdown, but dive deeper into these periods of low volatility consolidation and take a look back into the past when we were similar environments, and what happened after. We will discuss the overall macro situation and I will attempt to cover when I think this chop comes to and end and what sort of price action we might expect in the short term, if things all go to plan.

Let’s crack on into it!

The Never Ending Chop

As mentioned in some previous editions, these periods in the market are designed to break you. First you get the red candles that hurt you, then you get the sideways boredom and hopelessness that creates, which eventually breaks you. It is the same situation every single time we get a macro bottom like this. And right now, Bitcoin has been doing a great job of that.

Since we hit $60,000 in Feb we are now at 180 days of trading mostly sideways, with the recent drop and chop from $58,000 hitting 60 days. By all accounts, this is brutal price action that at every single turn, is designed to break your spirit and your belief that things will never improve again. You only need to spend 10 minutes on Crypto X to see how effectively that has worked. However, people have short memories. Contrary to what most believe, they can’t remember or recognise that it is like this every single time there is macro low of this form.

Each major bear cycle and subsequent low we have ever had on Bitcoin has contained two periods of consolidation/chop, with the first period lasting between 147 days to 217 days, and then the second part between 49 days to 112 days.

Each time the sentiment has been the same across the board with frustration, anger, apathy and then hopelessness. And every single time just as the sentiment reaches a fever pitch, Bitcoin rallies aggressively. There has not been a single time that it has not worked out that way, and that is by design. You need to ensure you become conscious of is that fact. That you can take control of your own individual sentiment and realise that the more hopeless things feel, the closer things are to becoming exciting again. That you do not sink into the collective emotions of hopelessness with everyone else. Everyone else is reacting emotionally, and that is not how you win in this game. During these periods of time you need to be as conscious as possible of your own thoughts and feelings, and force yourself to understand this mindset.

The longest period that Bitcoin has ever consolidated after hitting HTF oversold was in 2022, and that was 203 days. And all everybody was doing during the end of that phase was predicting that $12k was coming next. It didn’t. But that is how every single bottom is formed, with the crowd cheering for lower. The unending drop and chop infects the minds of all market participants and they cannot remember anything other than that. They have been utterly brutalised and conditioned into only expecting more pain. Every rally has failed for so long, every headline has made no difference. And everyone collectively loses any level of belief they have because they cannot remember that markets do actually go up.

That is where I believe we are right now.

We are at 182 days since the Feb bottom and oversold conditions, and although I cannot say to you for sure that the bottom is in, the technical, on-chain and my overall instincts as an investor, are telling me that we are very close now. We have covered the fact that $60k is our major pivot low for a long time, and beyond a worst case scenario drop of $54,000, I do not see us pushing much below $60k any more.

Let’s now dive into the data on Bitcoins recent lack of volatility, and what has happened every single time in the past that Bitcoin has become this stable.

This is really great data and I have a free indicator which highlights these bottoming volatility periods for all paid subscribers.

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Truth be told, not much has changed over the last week within the Crypto markets. Like I said in last weeks edition, we are very likely within the final period of this bear cycle, and within that period, everything moves very slowly… until it doesn’t.

Within the first part of corrections you have the price capitulations, and then within the second half of the correction, you get the time capitulation. The end of the price capitulation was on Feb 6th when we first hit $60,000. Since then, we have been mostly ranging, and once we lost our $74,000 level, we have been grinding sideways/down for nearly two months now. I love these markets, but I have to admit even I am starting to get bored now. But that is what comes with this territory. It’s called time capitulation because that is exactly what it does. The time the markets take to bounce around slowly and basically do nothing, is what ends up pushing the last staunch holders over the edge into giving up.

After large corrections like we have just had, fear and pain are the dominating sentiments within the collective Crypto holders. And this kind of time we have where nothing is happening, slowly eats away at remaining confidence. It is a very effective, destructive game. However, as with most things in this market, you have to adopt the opposite mindset of what the overall collective sentiment is telling you.

What is actually happening during these slow periods is that Bitcoin and the wider market is finding its feet, putting in a new floor and building the next base that it will eventually launch higher from. So during these periods of slow time where we start to feel bored and annoyed, is actually when we should be feeling calm and excited, because what comes after this period of seemingly unending sideways chop, is the fun part. And when it starts, it starts with a bang and keeps on going.

So, with this in mind, todays edition is going to be about that fun part. With the markets in a similar position to last week, with nothing having changed about my overall analysis, I am dedicating this edition to what is coming next, how it will likely look, and what we can expect from Bitcoin and the wider market over the next bull cycle.

A quick update on BTC and ETH to refresh your memories but then we will get straight into the fun stuff.

Let’s get it!

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Another week has passed and the market continues to chug along, not really moving and giving investors the one thing they struggle with the most. Time to think.

Within this very late stage of the bear cycle before things kick off again, we always have a period of sideways chop that comes after the capitulations. And it is during this period that many of the last remaining bulls mentally capitulate and flip bearish. It’s not the price movement that does it, because the price has already dropped. It’s the time and stillness of the chart that does it, because it gives everyone time and boring conditions to overthink. And the overthinking falls very much into the negative and bearish category because that is all the market has shown us for the last 9 months, and it is very much the collective groupthink sentiment within all Crypto spaces online.

Red candles cause fear, sure. But time and space to think is what really does the damage. It is almost always the fear of something happening that is worse than when it actually happens. And this is exactly why late stage bear cycles ruin people so much because even the biggest of believers end up mentally capitulating, flipping bearish and expecting much lower, right at the time when things finally start to turn bullish again. The overwhelming majority of investors expect lower because thats all the markets have done, and everyone thinks the same, which further increases the bearishness of the individual. It is easy to be bearish after 9 months of down, and the vast majority of investors default to what it easy.

But this in and of itself is a major signal. When the crowd still thinks the major low is not in, when we have so many major low signals and changing of trends flashing, that is the confluence we need to feel confident that we’re close. The majority will always miss the top and the bottom. That is just the way it goes.

As we continue to hash out this floor and the price action develops, everything continues to fall in line with what I am expecting, and contrary to the major groupthink, I continue to see the signs that we are very close to larger moves higher across the board than we are to any kind of further downside.

Today, I will be updating you will all the major technicals across the board to as always, show you exactly what I’m seeing and how things look from here.

Let’s get straight into it!

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Everything continues to play out as expected within our longer consolidation bottom period, moving exactly in line with a mid cycle correction. Over the last couple of months things have really turned bearish sentiment wise and from my perspective, as someone with a decent following on X, I feel as if the market has reached a state where people genuinely do not believe it can go up again.

I shared a tweet yesterday with a trade setup for $ETH that had the target as $3,475. This is nowhere near Ethereums ATH, yet I had many comments totally scoffing at this as if it was an utterly ridiculous thing to see. And this is what bear cycles do, they break people down into a place where they can’t actually remember that markets do, and will, go up. And go up hard.

This kind of sentiment is indicative of the late stage bear cycle, and it ultimately leads to Bitcoin and the wider market “climbing the wall of worry”. This is where the market has flipped bullish, but the majority still feel very bearish. They therefore expect every single pump to be fake, because for the last few months every pump has been sold off. However, the market keeps climbing and the investors keep worrying and staying sidelined, until we end up 50% off of the lows and people finally start to realise that maybe this isn’t a fake pump. At that stage people begin to FOMO back in, however, we are already 50% up and they end up buying the local high.

This is how investing goes for most people and it is why you should almost always ignore the mass consensus. At the bottom, the majority cannot ever see prices going higher again, because every pump has been sold off for so long. When we reach the top, the majority wont be able to see lower, because every dump has been bought back for so long. Such are the extremities of the market within late stage bulls and late stage bears.

I believe we are nicely within the late stage bear, even now already into the early stage bull. And today I will be going over, as usual, key technicals and data to see exactly where we are and what we can expect next.

Let’s get into it!

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After 5 months of ranging, Bitcoin continues to respect our 60k bottom call level with a high level of precision, and we just had a very nicely 1W and 2W close across the wider market. Even after the failed breakout above $74,000, and the vast liquidations that came after losing that level again, $60,000 has continued to hold on all high-time frame levels. As time passes its getting quite difficult to understand what would now cause a deep retrace below that level, beyond a flush like we had for FTX in 2022, and the technicals and on-chain metrics are continuing to point towards $60k being a strong low.

In addition, what we are starting to see is a very high level of arrogance from market participants that believe we are going lower. It’s reached the point where any kind of discussion around the macro low being in is met with a large amount of disrespect. This alone doesn’t mean that prices wont fall lower, but it is always very interesting observing the sentiment like this as Bitcoin continues to hold $60,000.

Macro tops and macro bottoms are marked by the relative emotions of those periods. The tops are full of extremely cocksure bulls and the bottoms full of cocksure bears. It’s exactly why retail buy the tops and sell the bottoms. Which is the exact opposite of how, as an investor, you should operate at those periods. “Observe the masses and do the opposite” is one of the best phrases within investing, and there is very good reason for that.

It is my view that we are really getting close to final part of this bear cycle and the reversion to higher prices is a lot closer than most think. Today, I will update things across the board and dig into what the data shows us is going to unfold for altcoins for the rest of this year.

Let’s get into it!

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First off, apologies, as this edition is coming into your inbox a day later than usual. The reason for this, is that last night, we had something happen that only happens twice per year. We had, at the same time, the 1 month, 3 month and 6 month closes. I wanted to wait until those were behind us before updating you today.

There is no sugar coating it guys, we are in time capitulation right now. After losing the $74,000 level, I mentioned that we would now enter a more prolonged bottoming formation, and that is exactly what we are getting. $60,000 in Feb 6th was our price capitulation, and since then we have been going through an absolute grind, emotionally messing with Crypto holders and watching the fear continue to creep higher and higher in peoples minds as the price slowly grinds lower and lower, until the final holders cant take it anymore and capitulate.

However, even though we cannot predict the 100% future, the data is now very clearly showing us that we are reaching the climax point of this bear cycle and getting ready to transition back into our bullish cycle. I know it does not feel this way, but by understanding that very feeling, it confirms that we are definitely in that position.

Bottoms do not feel good - that is just how it is. The trick is to be able to recognise, objectively, that the bottoming formation is where we are and operate within an opposite based mindset. We must be even more convicted during the times when the crowd is pessimistic. And after manoeuvring through this bottom formation well, securing great positions, we will then at some point, need to be pessimistic when the crowd is overly optimistic. Learn to recognise difficult times like now in the market as peak opportunity, and really fun times in the market at the highs as the time to actually be very cautious.

The long and short of this edition is that even though this phase of the market is very challenging for many, we are very close now. I have lots to share for you today with some great updates across the board, so lets crack on straight into it guys!

High Time Frame Closes

As mentioned before, Bitcoin and the wider market put in their 1M, 3M and 6M closes last night. These much higher time frame candles really paint a picture of what is happening within a much slower pace, and allow us to drown out the day to day noise of the market.

What we can see here above is that Bitcoin has now closed 2x 6M candles red. Over the last 10 years this is something that has only happened twice. Once in 2018 and then again in 2022.

Here below we then have the 3M close.

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Things continue to move along as expected from Bitcoin and the wider market after we lost our key $74,000 level. As we spoke about at length before we lost that level, losing it would mean more of a grinding it out bottoming process, rather than our preferred thesis of the expanded flat reversal. And that was a frustrating one because every other wider market chart has moved as it should, but Bitcoin did not. However, as always with investing, we simply have to adapt.

Where we find ourselves now is in a state of apathy, anger, and are now moving into depression. The Bitcoin chart is still very weak, and even though it is and has been deeply oversold for sometime, the loss of conviction and capitulation from holders has put Bitcoin into a position where even though the selling momentum has slowed, there are currently not many people bidding. But this is the exact kind of environment we would expect to find ourselves in at the latter stage of a long bearish correction like this, and signals to us that it is much closer to the end than the beginning.

And even though it is very challenging to stay convicted within these periods of a market cycle, that is why we must. Anyone that tries to tell you they have made every single move correctly, has not. Even though I have been entertaining all outcomes, regardless of the conviction I had in the $74,000 level, only 2 out of 3 of my major bottom buys are in profit - and that is simply the way it goes. When accumulating positions within bottom zones, you have to be prepared to go underwater for a while, because we simply cannot predict the 100% future. It is a process of hammering it out, adding your positions, and staying convicted whilst everyone else runs away.

So, even though I cannot say to you that the macro low is 100% in, I feel I can say that it is very close. Today, I will be updating our major market charts and on-chain metrics, as well as discussing the rate hike/cut situation and the new FED chair, Kevin Warsh.

Let’s get straight into it!

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Another week in the books with Bitcoin holding the $60k macro low, and putting in some constructive price action. The biggest question however right now is which path is Bitcoin going to take from here?

At this stage, the 4 year cycle has become total consensus, and you can understand why. So far, it has played very closely to previous cycles, with the dates of key pivot highs and drops happening within very similar timeframes. I cannot say that it will not follow it. But the key differences between now and all of the previous 4 year cycle bear markets only continue to strengthen.

Today, I am going to dive deep into this and really help you understand the overall picture, and objectively, with many data points, help you see what I see. Now, i have had a fair few people ask me why it is important… just stack coins and don’t worry when it bottoms. And yeh, sure, you can do that. But probably the worst thing that can happen to you within your investment process is to be caught off guard.

In addition, the ramifications for the entire market between a full cycle correction and a mid cycle correction, are massive. One is is fast and deep, with a fast recovery. The other is still deep but slow, and even slower to recover. The path forward with these two different outcomes means a great deal to your performance as an investor. And I won’t just be covering this for Bitcoin, I’ll cover the entire market.

So without wasting anymore time, let us get straight into it!

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This previous weeks price action on Bitcoin has changed a lot. From the $60k low, we had a very solid plan in place and rode the waves very nicely all the way to $83k, reclaiming a large number of HTF key levels and metrics, whilst the bears faded the entire move higher.

Everything has been looking right on track. Business cycle expansion, liquidity expansion, COPPER/GOLD breakout and small cap stocks ratio in expansion. Everything, that in the past, has created the perfect environment for bitcoin to truly find its feet. But it has so far, remained weak. The most notable thing from this move was that many HTF, historically accurate bottom signals fired, and for the first time, Bitcoin then made a new low.

Why is this happening, you ask? We will definitely be getting to that, don’t you worry!

Now, at the moment, Bitcoin has only made a very marginal low that has not made a lower daily close, as of yet. The case can most definitely still be made that this recent move is just a liquidity sweep, in which the $60k low bottom signals are still intact, as within every other previous cycle, and this move lower is simply a spring before more ranging and then higher. But after losing our $74,400 level, in my view, that is not 100% guaranteed. And, unfortunately, the strongest and most bullish reversal that we were hoping for, has now become far less likely, however, not impossible.

This market is frustrating, and I understand you’re all feeling the weight of this underperformance to the wider market, and getting a bit fed up of these red candles. I am too. However, it is very important to remember that regardless of the fact that we lost $74,400, and our path to the fastest market wide recovery, we are still most definitely bottoming, and very close to our market low, if it is not already still in. The worst of it is now behind us. There are no two ways to put it, we are highly oversold and everything is in a high value accumulation place - the job now is to navigate this as best as possible.

As time progresses, it is my view that Bitcoin has a structural issue that is very likely being driven by something we cannot see. This could be a deleveraging issue, or it could be a manipulation issue by very large vested interest players before the Clarity Act.

Today, I will be reviewing the recent move, going over the current situation on the LTF and HTF, and helping you assess where we now are, and what we need to be looking for to establish if this move was simply a $60k low liquidity sweep, or the start of another HTF move to lower prices. In addition, what this means for altcoins.

Now that our base case of continuation above $74,400 has been invalidated, we must move forward to total objectivity and ensure we get on the right side of the market before the next major move, either up or down.

Let’s get into it!

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With an ever changing crypto landscape, our invalidation for immediate expansion is being pushed to the wire.

What is happening right now within the Crypto space is unprecedented. We have a global melt up of every single other risk asset, business cycle within deep expansion, and Gold rotation into Copper, with increasing liquidity, whilst Bitcoin continues to be pushed aside.

Throughout Bitcoins entire history, when we have entered the above conditions, It has positioned Bitcoin into its most favourable environment, which every single time, has begun the most prosperous part of Bitcoins cycles. But this time around, we are not seeing this happen yet.

Why is this happening? This is a question so many are wondering and worried about, and there isn’t a straightforward, singular answer… because it has never happened.

However, today, I will attempt to shed as much light on this question as possible for you, update the overall market and macro situation, and give my thoughts on how/when this correlation to the macro will regather itself.

Let’s get into it!

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Things continue to move in line with my overall expectations, but as in true Bitcoin fashion, it makes its moves as close as it can to invalidating a structure before completely reversing. Once you understand that this is how the Crypto markets work, it makes it a lot easier to stay true to your conviction, even as the price really tests the overall robustness of it. And it is this way by design.

The market makers(mainly exchanges) are here to liquidate as many people as possible and make as much money as possible - it really is not much different to a casino. Therefore, to win, you have to have skills. You have to be able to recognise the tactics and methods market makers use to mislead and manipulate you, and have a clearly defined thesis with clearly defined levels.

The reason this is so important is that, as I just mentioned, every structure will be pushed to its limits, look like its losing it, and if it is correct, then reverse hard. Because the vast majority will flip on their conviction at the worst possible moment(as its invalidation is being tested), get rekt, and then have to watch the price reverse and go the way they initially believed it would anyway. In simple terms, it’s why people get bearish after long drops close to key support levels, and bullish after price pushes close to key resistance levels. It’s the total opposite of what you should do.

The main lesson here is that the closer your levels get to being invalidated, the more convicted you should be, and the easier the risk is to manage because the invalidation is so obvious and so close. Only once you lose the level clearly, on a HTF basis, should you flip. And when that happens you should flip fast.

Right now, Bitcoin is doing exactly what I have just described. We had the drop to $60k, the grind up, the HTF closes back in Bullish structure, and the HTF close above the previous range low to shake the bears. Now, we have had a retrace back down to $74,400 to test the break of structure, shaking the bulls.

Either way we go now will be decided very soon, as there isn’t much more room left to run before invalidation with acceptance back below $74,400, or to reverse back up and begin a new run to the highs.

Today, I will go over all the up to date data, provide my thoughts on this, and cover Ethereum and some key altcoins that are signalling to us about where the overall altcoin market wants to go.

Let’s get into it!

Strong Range

In last weeks edition I covered how I expected our HTF key level to be tested, and it was. Bitcoin reached a price of $74,200, and then reversed back up very quickly to $77,000+. We are now holding at around these prices as Bitcoin continues to respect our key HTF structure.

My base expectations here haven’t changed. I am expecting this level to hold, and for Bitcoin to reverse back up fairly soon, within the start of June, and break through the 200EMA at $83,000 and continue. A sweep of the weekend low at $74,100 is probable, and what I am anticipating to happen this week.

To note: Our invalidation is clear as day. As you all know I am HTF bullish, but if we lose $74,400 on the weekly, I will become a lot more defensive.

Strong opinions, loosely held.

I want to now speak about this current Bitcoin range and help you guys understand why it cannot be compared to any other period in which Bitcoin has gone on to make new lows. There is a lot of noise out there, and a lot of nonsense about bear flags and break downs, without any context or in-depth analysis whatsoever.

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It’s amazing how much can change within a week in these markets, and how quickly sentiment can shift. Last weeks editions was titled “The bears are sweating”, and right now, it is the bulls starting to feel their doubt. But this is how the market works.

The market moves in such a way that it pushes as close as it can to invalidating a trend, then reversing. And as we approach those kinds of levels, market participants doubt their ideas. This is why, in its most simple form, that investors sell the bottom and buy the top. They get sucked into the emotions of the moment, the timeline gets loud, and everyone flips at the exact wrong moment, regardless of the data. Only to be reversed on hard not so long after.

What we have had over the last week is the first meaningful pullback for a fairly long time and the bears are starting to celebrate, just as many bulls were at $82,000. But if you have learned one thing from me it’s that we always want to be paying more attention to the High time frame than the low time frame. As I said in last weeks edition, I honestly couldn’t say if we were going to break $83,000 on the first go, but what we did know was that we already secured several key High timeframe closes as we approached that key level.

So where does this pullback leave us? Has it changed anything about the overall market position? I know a lot of you, at time like this and when things feel uncertain again, are eager to understand these questions. So without further waffling here, let us jump into this weeks edition as I provide some in-depth clarity on the overall market position and what I think is next here, all of the levels you need to be paying attention to, and what the overall macro is continuing to show us as time passes.

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