REPORT

Vol 15.

August 2026

Thoughts on KRE, Top 5 Shorts, GBFH Update & Re-Ranking My 2026 Takeover Targets

KRE Thoughts

Whether it was amateur golf or managing DRC I have always kept a diary. I try to write in it weekly, but the entries can vary from 1-10 times a month. It has nothing to do with my personal life; it is simply what I see, feel, and think about the broad market along with the banking sector. The reason for this is so I can go back and read the good, bad and indifferent times with hopes of not repeating mistakes or understanding where we are in the cycle.

What I can tell you is the first half of 2026 is eerily similar to what I was experiencing in mid-2022.

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REPORT

Vol 14.

July 2026

GBFH Update and CSHX Activist Campaign

GBFH Update

GBFH batted 1000% with their Q2-2026 quarterly results. The quarter sucked, fintech update sucked, core bank sucked, followed by the conference call which sucked the most. I started this substack with this statement to show I never try and sugarcoat crap or am blind to reality.

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REPORT

Vol 13.

June 2026

Are There Any Banks Still On Sale?!

Well, it’s June and this group has officially pissed me off for the year!

One mantra to live by is “if you sell community bank stocks at 13x forward eps, you make money every time”. Ladies and Gentlemen we have arrived at our destination and here we are, now paying full sticker price for banks. This is a losing proposition and we need to be disciplined in times like this… Funny thing is this last rally seems like an unwind of long fintech and short banks which has been going on for over a decade.

I do not see other funds in our business putting money to work in banks at these prices, so who is the buyer?

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Given the long bond is over 5% I figured this is a good time to update some thoughts on the short side. So, I broke this report into 2 parts what to short and not to short. Today we are going to highlight TFIN CCB NEW ESRT.

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REPORT

Vol 11.

May 2026

GBFH: Special Edition

The House is Secure as GBFH Announced an A-list Bank Operator

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REPORT

Vol 10.

April 2026

The World May Be Ending, But Let’s Pile Into Community Bank Stocks

I sat here till the last day to write this report for a few reasons. First being, the state of the world right has not eased my fears of the broad market. Waiting has allowed me to look at more data and watch clear manipulation of the US indices. Trump says we have a cease fire .. market rallies 1000 points on a Friday and Israel ends it at 5 pm EST, an hour after the market closes. Second, I wanted the full picture on earnings that are tied to banks. Including fintech (especially Consumer fintechs) along with private credit etc. So, I can give you my opinion on how to attack the rest of 2026. Third and last, GBFH earnings.

You also need to know that when I wait till the last day my wife turns into the bride of Chucky because she sees it as … “I Procrastinated”. All of you please have a laugh knowing as I am writing, I am also taking heavy arms fire from my wife who does the editing and publishing for my reports.

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REPORT

Vol 9.

March 2026

The Biggest Problem this Market Faces & What the “F” is Wrong with GBFH

If you have been a subscriber for a while it was no secret, I had some real concerns about the broad market, financial sector and the banks. In my opinion, the cracks have been showing since Mid-2025, but the world ignored them until now. We can all agree the war, oil prices, weakening Economic Data, and private credit are major headwinds for the broad market along with the economy. However, I feel that leverage is the biggest issue that terrifies me and no one is talking about it.

Current Leverage Problem in the U.S Broad Market

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REPORT

Vol 8.

February 2026

The Spineless Index Better Known as the KRX

Let’s face it, over the last few years, the KRX index has displayed no guts at all. We have not seen real vanilla asset managers enter regional banks in a meaningful way since the GFC. When those funds have dipped their toe in the water they do not stay very long. I do not see myself as a contrarian, but since launching DRC we have found success running against the herd. That is not by design, it’s simply by logic.

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The BankZhar REPORT

Vol 7.

January 2026

2026, The Year of the G

2025 Recap and Update/Outlook on GBank Financial (GBFH)

2025 Recap

The main reason my subscribers trust me is because I can call balls and strikes. Although GBFH is my top pick, they can get it too. 2025 was a total lost year for the company and the stock performance was well justified. Some things could have been prevented internally, and some were in the hands of the regulators. However, even 2025 being a lost year,

Ed quietly used the back half of the year to prepare the company for the future.

Let’s review:

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REPORT

Vol 6. PT 6.

December 2025

The 12 Days of Bank Stocks

On the sixth day of Christmas the BankZhar gave to me …

Thoughts on the OCFC/FFIC deal & what can we learn from this transaction.

I would be a hypocrite if I said anything positive about this deal after spending the last few months talking about the Mandani Put and I really could not see any bank wanting to acquire inside the 5 boroughs.

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REPORT

Vol 6. PT 5.

December 2025

The 12 Days of Bank Stocks: Day 5

On the fifth day of Christmas the BankZhar gave to me …

The Bankzhar’s Top 10 Potential Take Over list for 2026

If you have followed me over the last 5 years, I have a pretty good track record on identifying banks that are open to being acquired and ultimately do. As I said before, since launching DRC in Q3-2020, the fund has had 28 bank investments be acquired for a premium. So, for this report, I am going to identify my top 10 banks I believe could sell in 2026. I am my toughest critic but we all can score how I do this time next year.

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REPORT

Vol 6. PT 4.

December 2025

The 12 Days of Bank Stocks

On the fourth day of Christmas the BankZhar gave to me …

2026 Predictions: Top 10 Under Performers

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REPORT

Vol 6. PT 3.

December 2025

The 12 Days of Bank Stocks

On the third day of Christmas the BankZhar gave to me ...

Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)

If you are looking for an under-the-radar, diamond in the rough, SMID community bank, with top-tier management let me present to you Arrow Financial Corp. (AROW).

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REPORT

Vol 6. PT 2.

December 2025

The 12 Days of Bank Stocks

On the second day of Christmas the BankZhar gave to me ...

Farmers & Merchants Bank of Long Beach (FMBL)

Previously we spoke about FMBL on X and then highlighted the bank in the Halloween Edition of the Bankzhar Report. X is an unbelievable platform for bank investing. This is true for both professional and retail investors.

My interactions vary but the majority are investors asking questions (which I am happy to answer), retail investors taking the other side of my idea which almost always ends in a tax loss for them and finally being blamed for the failure of FRC, FRBK, SI, etc. My favorite was an upset First Republic customer and/or shareholder retweeting one of my many simple math posts about the bank. “FRC is a great bank, and if we all band together we can overcome this social media coup trying to take down the bank.” I replied “Great idea, you should start a GoFundMe Page for the bank! $15 Billion should just about cover the hole in their balance sheet!” I say all this because earlier this year someone asked me to look at FMBL and what it could be worth in a sale.

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REPORT

Vol 6. PT 1.

December 2025

The 12 Days of Bank Stocks

On the first day of Christmas the BankZhar gave to me...

Provident Financial Services (PFS)

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The BankZhar REPORT

Vol 5.

November 2025

Recap of the first 4 BankZhar Reports

I was trying to figure out some new ideas, thoughts, and themes to write about, but this is not the time to expand the portfolio. Over the last few months, I have been warning our readers of some bad signs that I saw in the broad market and in the banks. September’s “Sounding the Alarm” report was 5 days early before they started smacking the banks, and I believe we are not done. So, in this report we will talk about new stuff, but I need to reiterate …

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The BankZhar REPORT

Vol 4.

October 2025

Halloween Edition

Let’s have a little fun with this one and tie it back to Trick or Treating

Ghosts – Banks that will disappear through M&A through Halloween 2026

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The BankZhar Report

Vol 3.

September 2025

Monthly Reports

First, let me say, The BankZhar Report will not be a “cookie cutter” report. Meaning, from month to month you may see all different types of ideas. So far, all of the reports have been drastically different, but should be impactful for our subscribers. I am doing this because I want all of you to get the top and most actionable ideas that are rattling around in my thick head! This month is no different, and if my concerns are right, this may help make and protect some money.

I am always looking for subscriber feedback, so please DM me or post on X @TheBankZhar.

Something Doesn’t Feel Right and Things Aren’t Making Sense

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Anyone that has followed me knows I am not afraid to put future predictions and thoughts in print even if it goes against the herd.

Prior to starting this Substack, I asked a bunch of followers why they thought my commentary would be valuable to the investor community. All the feedback was great, but the main thing I learned was that my comments always have convictions, reasons, and expectations.

That is what I am going to bring to this report month in and month out. With that being said, let’s review the last 6 months.

In Dec 2024, I released a Community Bank Advent Calendar on X (@TheBankZhar). I gave 24 Days of predictions for Bank Investors in 2025.

Let’s look back at some of these predictions

Day 1: There will be at least 5 M&A deals in PA. I gave PWOD, ESSA, SQCF, FKYS, and VTYB as focus names.

Since that tweet there have been 4 deals in PA. PWOD, ESSA, SQCF, and PBBK have already sold. PWOD & ESSA sold within 40 days.

PBBK was a main topic of mine in Q2-2025.

Grade A+

Day 5: I felt the KRE would fade hard early in the year but buying that pullback would be epic.

KRE sold off 19.1% from YE-24 to 4/8/25 followed by a 32.1% (8/25/25)

Grade A++

Day 6: SFBC, BNCC, and ESBS will all be sold in 2025.

Well, currently I am batting 0-3 with this one. However, there are 3½ innings left in the game and we are playing the Mets.

Grade Incomplete

Day 11: There will be more CU/Bank deals in 2025 than the last 3 years combined.

1/1/22-12/31/24 - 49 Deals announced 4 Terminated Net 45.

I admit, I was a little excited when I wrote that and failed to consider a regime in government would cause a slow start to CU/Bank deals.

YTD there have been 10 CU/Community Bank Mergers announced.

A total of 8 CU deals were announced as of the end of Q2-25.

I believe we will see at least 15 CU/Bank deals announced in the back ½ of the year.

Grade C- Incomplete

Day 18: FNWB will either turn the bank around in the first ½ or sell in the back ½ of 2025.

What a disaster this POS has become. If it sold tomorrow for a 100% premium, I still would give myself an F just thinking they could turn the bank around.

Grade F

Overall, the first six months played out pretty much as expected.

It’s a strange year for bank investors. Coming into Q3 you have a broad market flying with community banks not only severely lagging the S&P but the XLF.

I believe this has produced a setup that we can strongly debate both up or down the rest of the year. Also, given the recent move in the KRX both opinions for Bull & Bear seem to be getting louder.

Let’s Dig In!

Predictions for the rest of 2025

Let’s delve into the aspects that have remained consistent in my analysis and continue to be pivotal in my investment thesis. I’ll start with the bad and end on a good note!

Major Bearish themes that are rattling around in my head

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In late June GBFH Stock action seemed very bizarre, come to find out over 500k shares were sold short. Anyone that has watched GBFH for some time knows this is a large amount of selling pressure for this stock. Another Anecdote for you is that the 2 weeks before and after the index addition has produced over 95% of trades below 100 shares (odd lots). I do not recall one investment bank showing us a natural order since May.

However, after reading the June 26th, 2025 Stephens Russell Recon report, it was showing that 2025 marked the worst performance of R2 new bank adds over this period in the last decade. This is only 1 reason this pullback should be viewed as a gift.

Here are a few more:

Debunking the sale registration of 4 insiders

1. Chairman Ed Nigro - Registered and sold a small amount of stock (under 100k shares) ownership is still over 9% (over $40 million in stock). Nigro family ownership is in the low teens. In my opinion the 82 yr old man is allowed a little liquidity.

2. Chuck Griege of Blue Lion - Chuck sold 100k in his fund because the position breached a concentration limit in the fund. He counteracted this sale by buying 10k personally.

3. Lee Finley - Finley owned well over 10%. As we all know, owning over 10% of an SEC registered bank is a nightmare. He just needed to get under 10%.

4. James Scklar - Long time board member and a top 5 insider sold a small amount of shares.

Why is this totally irrelevant?

Well in my 26 year career, I can honestly say, it is rare where an insider group owns 35% of a company. I have worked with the company since 2019 and I have not seen many sales by insiders. We also should add that 100% of GBFH insiders take 100% of their compensation in stock.

That my friends .. is unprecedented .. and should be praised!

All novice G-Bank investors should glance over the insider roster of this tiny bank. When the chairman and CEO of MGM Hotels isn’t the most impressive Director, you can conclude the Board is stacked

Lets Talk Impact on the Uplist

Given the limited audience of mostly bank focused investors prior to the uplist, we should see a significant shift in ownership in the next several quarters. In my opinion, if we were able to look out 12 months, we would find that 75% of institutional owners just learned GBFH was a company due to the uplist.

GBFH is now going to attract the FINTECH growth investor that traffic in TFIN, TBBK, CCB, SOFI, AFRM etc.

Ask yourself this question …

If that investor has no problem investing in TFIN at 50x EPS which are declining, what multiple do you put on GBFH which is basically doubling EPS YOY?

I don’t have the answer to that, but valuation gets silly when you start unpacking that question!

The Current Problem

As we stand today, GBFH has only 1 publishing analyst, Tim Coffey at Janney. I worked with Tim at FIG Partners and consider him one of the top West Coast bank analysts. I am also sympathetic to being the only analyst publishing on a very unique bank. However, similarly to 2025, his current 2026 EPS of $2.37 is very conservative.

How conservative?

Well, given the parabolic growth in credit card transactions, the credit division alone could very well earn over $2.00 per share and possibly Tim’s estimate in 2026.

I believe Tim will continue to adjust his estimates as we get more clarity from management in the back half of the year. However, given the fact that many index and quantitative funds heavily weight consensus estimates in their valuation process, Coffey’s estimates have created a drag on the stock.

Conclusion

On the Q1-25 Earnings call, Ed Nigro stated, Q2 is going to be a flattish quarter for the company. This is expected with the SEC registration, NASDAQ Uplist and initial rollout of the Slot Machine App.

FYI .. Anyone who is not familiar with the Slot Machine Division should do some real diligence on this business. Recently the credit card has stolen the show, however, I feel the slots could massively out earn the card. Nigro also stated that he expects real growth in the back half of the year. Historically, Ed has under promised and over delivered.

So when he says real growth .. MY EARS PERK UP!

Thoughts on GBFH Stock Price ($41.86)

Well, it is a little unfortunate the stock is up 12% since I started writing this report. I am still shocked that the stock retreated below $35 after the rebalance. That being said, I believe that $42 will be proven a gift for investors short and long term.

As an investor, I cannot tell you what multiple or 2026 EPS number to put on GBFH that you are comfortable with; that is for your own due diligence.

However, here is some quick math

When I created a peer group (some companies still aren’t profitable), 40x 2026 EPS seems reasonable but it very well could be higher.

Just for kicks …

Let's use Coffey’s 2026 conservative EPS estimate of $2.37 and use a low multiple of 30x. That valuation brings GBFH share price north of $70.

Let's humor the growth investors …

Lets use a very achievable 2026 $3.00 EPS and put a fair 40x multiple. The valuation brings GBFH share price north of $120.

Good Luck to all!

1. Disclaimer - All ideas, reports, articles, and all other features of this subscription product are provided for informational and educational purposes. Nothing contained herein is investment advice or should be construed as investment advice. All decisions that you make after reading our articles and reports are 100% your responsibility. The service is intended as a source of potential ideas to incorporate into your own process.

Our analysis is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and other sources of public information. It may contain errors and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. There is no guarantee, or suggestion of a guarantee, that our ideas will perform as they have in the past.

I/my fund or affiliates may hold positions in securities that I write about, which will be disclosed at the time of publication. To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.