On the state level Democrats won control of the state house in 1940. Over 85 years later Democrats currently hold supermajorities of 64-10 in the state house and 34-4 in the state senate.

In 2026 state Democrats will enter the general election with a 31-2 advantage. Six of the 31 Democrats running without a general election challenge from Republicans do face a Democrat challenger in the primary. A brief look into the races shows that the six Democrats are in a Progressive vs. Liberal race. A typical cycle in Rhode Island usually features at least one incumbent lose in the primary. The six incumbent Democrats are Sam Bell (5), Lori Urso (8), Dawn Euer (13), Meghan Kallman (15), Ryan Pearson (19), and Alana DiMario (36).

The state house is not much better for Republicans as Democrats will be entering the general election with a 54-6 supermajority. Only seven of the remaining 15 seats are expected to be competitive with Republicans currently holding four of them.

Nine Democrats elected not to run for re-election with only two of the seats featuring a Republican candidate opposite the Democrat. Eight of the nine open seats feature multiple candidates with another eight incumbent Democrats facing a primary challenge. These eight incumbents are Edith Ajello (1), Enrique Sanchez (9), Charlene Lima (14), Tina Spears (36), Brian Kennedy (38), Brandon Voas (57), Leonela Felix (61), and Matthew Dawson (65).

Currently their is one independent in the state house. Independents find success in states like Rhode Island where state legislative districts are much smaller than other states.

Early voting has begun with polls open Election Day September 8th between 7 A.M. and 7 P.M.

In 2026 Markey has come under fire for his ties to the establishment in a year where younger voters have ousted many mainstream members of both parties. Markey was seen as a progressive focused on energy and climate change most of his career but is now seen as part of the establishment after the rise of “the squad” and Democrat-Socialists. With Boston holding much of the power in the state it will be important for Markey to run up the vote in western and central Massachusetts.

Markey’s primary challenge comes from Rep. Seth Moulton. Moulton has previously attempted to lead a charge in 2018 to remove Nancy Pelosi as Democrat Speaker of the house prior to the start of the 116th Congress in 2019 citing the need for younger leadership. Moulton has drawn criticism from the LGBTQ community after comments he made after the 2024 presidential election where he believed that Democrats had leaned too far into identity politics and thought they should be focused on affordability and domestic issues.

Recent polling has shown Markey with a solid support base but enough voters are undecided to make this race one to keep an eye on. Either candidate is expected to handily defeat Republican John Deaton in the general election.

Moulton’s departure has created a three person power vacuum between progressives and the establishment. Dan Koh is the frontrunner and establishment pick while progressive Beth Andres-Beck has received support from many out-of-state organizations and progressive members of congress.

Reps. Richard Neal (1st), Jake Auchincloss (4th), Stephen Lynch (8th) and Bill Keating (9th) each face long-shot challengers. These four are seen by Democrats as the establishment and closely aligned with AIPAC. Most of the primary challengers are endorsed by both the Teacher’s unions and Track AIPAC but have not received the fundraising usually needed to defeat an entrenched incumbent.

The last time Republicans held a majority in the Massachusetts state house Harry S. Truman was president and the Korean war was entering a stalemate. Republicans have not been close in the 75 years since with Democrats currently holding advantages of 35-5 in the state senate and 132-25 in the state house.

Only seven seats will be contested by both parties in November’s general election with Democrats starting with a 29-4 supermajority. In the remaining seven seats one is held by a Republican in a competitive district, two Democrats in competitive districts and four safe Democrat seats.

Four incumbents face primary challengers primarily from progressive candidates: Nick Collins (1st Suffolk), William Driscoll Jr. (Norfolk-Plymouth-Bristol district), Michael Rush (Norfolk-Suffolk district) and William Brownsberger (Suffolk-Middlesex district.) Two other Democrats have elected not to run for another term.

Democrats will start off with a 93-13 majority come November with Democrats only needing to win 14 more seats to maintain their supermajority.

Ten Democrats have elected not to run for re-election in 2026 while 20 Democrats face primary challengers. History has shown that two to three incumbents typically lose in the primary in Massachusetts.

Republican John Gaskey is the only Republican incumbent who faces a primary challenge.

Democrats have the ability to pick up a few seats for a 140-20 to 142-18 supermajority while Republicans best case scenario would probably be a wide 127-33 Democrat supermajority.

Early voting has begun with polls open Election Day September 1st between 7 A.M. and 7 P.M.

Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon is termed out after two terms. His replacement has drawn a contested field of four competitors. Eric Barlow has raised the most amount of money and is the favorite. Megan Degenfelder has made a late charge but is expected to fall short. The Freedom Caucus aligned Brent Bien has not raised much but does have a high floor with a low ceiling.

Five competitors have entered the race to replace Sen. Cynthia Lummis. Rep. Harriet Hageman is the frontrunner with no member from the Wyoming Freedom Caucus expected to be competitive in the race.

Nine Republicans are running to replace Hageman with Wyoming Attorney General Chuck Gray and businessman Reid Rasner leading the pack. Gray is heavily funded with support from much of the Freedom Caucus. Both candidates have released internal polling showing a close race with Senate President Bo Biteman a distant third.

Wyoming Republicans currently hold a 29-2 supermajority and will start November with a 25-2 supermajority. Only one general election race is competitive where Republican Mark Rinne might be in a close race with Democrat Jim Lee.

Stakes are high for the Freedom Caucus with Senate President Bo Biteman electing to run for Congress. With ten competitive Republican primaries the Freedom Caucus will likely need to win seven of those ten to remain in leadership. Five incumbents face challengers: Ogden Driskill, Wendy Davis Schuler, Cale Case, Robert Ide, and Evie Brennan.

Currently the Wyoming house consists of 56 Republicans and 6 Democrats. Heading into November’s general election Republicans will start with a 40-2 supermajority.

The primary sees all the intrigue with the lack of competitive races between Democrats and Republicans. In 2026, 32 Republican primaries feature multiple candidates with 22 incumbents facing challengers. Most of the incumbents are in rematches or are in leadership roles with the Freedom Caucus or the Wyoming Caucus.

The Freedom Caucus statewide aligned endorsements can be found (here) with the full state house candidate list (here).

Early voting has begun with polls open Election Day August 18th between 7 A.M. to 7 P.M. Mountain Time.

DeSantis chose Ashley Moody as Florida’s next senator when Sen. Marco Rubio was tapped to be President Trump’s Secretary of State. An election to fill the rest of the term is set since it was a special election appointment. Sen. Moody is likely to face Democrat Alex Vindman. Vindman has significant funding and is the twin brother of Virginia Rep. Eugene Vindman.

Rep. Byron Donalds is leading a crowded Republican primary. Donalds has the support from most major groups in the state along with many prominent members of Congress.

James Fishback was the early challenger to Donalds nomination but after multiple controversies might slip to third. The anti-Donalds vote will also be split with Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, and Bobby Williams having some regional support in central Florida.

Florida quickly moved to pass new maps after the supreme court overturned part of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Republicans are expected to flip between two and four seats with many primaries featuring expensive races.

The top democrat primary takes place in the 20th where term Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz faces a crowded field of challengers. After redistricting, disgraced former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick opted to run after resigning early in 2026 due to a probe into misused FIMA funds used for campaign funding. McCormick will struggle to receive 10% with Schultz strongest challenger from Elijah Manley. Manley has raised over $1M while positioning himself as a progressive, fresh blood and anti-Israel.

Two other incumbents face primary challengers under the new map. Rep. Jared Moskowitz has been drawn into a toss-up district. Moskowitz has had to divert money against challenger Oliver Larkin. Larkin has polled well in recent weeks with some Democrats seeing Moskowitz as too moderate.

In the 23rd, Rep. Lois Frankel has received consolidated support but does face a competitive challenger in Victoria Doyle. Doyle is expected to have a solid floor of votes from heavily Hispanic neighborhoods in the district yet will likely fall short 60-40.

Six other Democrat primaries are expected to have some intrigue but have no incumbent.

Republican Rep. Aaron Bean is likely to face Ben Crump endorsed Democrat LaShonda Holloway. Holloway is polling the worst among the three candidates but is likely to cruise to the nomination. The new fourth district has shifted slightly to the left under the new map but Bean should win comfortably.

It is rare that former Vice-President Kamala Harris makes an endorsement which makes it that much more intriguing in Florida’s 21st congressional district where James Martin is locked in a competitive primary against Bernard Taylor. Either candidate is likely to lose against Rep. Brian Mast but Martin has raised a significant amount of money.

A three-person dogfight has ensued in the 23rd where the Pelosi style old guard has backed Kendrick Meek. Meek is expected to split the non-progressive vote with Oliver Gilbert who is backed by many local unions. The field has opened up for progressive Shevrin Jones with Meek and Gilbert potentially taking votes from each other.

Polling showed on the 27th that Eliott Rodriguez was the Democrat frontrunner but progressive Robin Peguero has shown some life and could make things close.

Republicans have ten contested primaries of their own with two incumbents in close races.

Randy Fine was first elected in a 2025 special election to replace Rep. Michael Waltz. Fine has since drawn criticism for his enthusiasm for the Iran war and his unwavering support for Israel. As a result many anti-war and young voters have turned against Fine.

Of the many challengers two stand out as viable. Aaron Baker ran against Fine in 2025 and with a strong previous showing has the name value needed. The original frontrunner was Dan Bilzerian who started strong but polling a few months ago showed Baker doing better one-on-one with Fine. In recent weeks Bilzerian has received all the funding and is now just behind Fine in the polls. With high turnout in the south of the district Bilzerian could win.

Rep. Jimmy Patronis was also first elected in a 2025 special election. In his first term Patronis has received a reputation as a good establishment player with a weak voting record. John Frankman has positioned himself as the best alternative but is unlikely to be within 20%.

Under the new maps Republicans have multiple opportunities to pick up a few seats.

One of these is located just outside the Tampa-St. Petersburg area where Democrat Rep. Kathy Castor’s district was drawn much more red. The republican nominee is unknown with three candidates polling well. Kevin Steele is the most establishment candidate and would likely require house leadership to have to spend money in 2028 and beyond supporting Steele against primary challengers while giving Republicans the best opportunity in November. Rocky Rochford has shown the ability to run a strong campaign in the region but a lack of funding likely sees him in third place in the primary while Mike Beltran has received much of the support from the Florida Republican delegation and would be a solid candidate.

Elsewhere in central Florida house leadership backed Joe Strada has long been the favorite to make it out of the primary but Carey Baker’s numerous endorsements and Nizam Razack cash advantage could make things interesting.

A third race in central Florida could be interesting if Dan Green or Thomas Chalifoux make it out of the Republican primary. Both candidates have the kind of cash on hand that could force Democrats to divert funds.

The Florida panhandle features an open seat in the second where a handful of candidates are hoping to stop establishment-backed Austin Rogers from moving onto the general. Three strong candidates are splitting the vote with Keith Gross having a late surge while spending the most money. Meanwhile Luke Murfoy and Evan Power have started to fade.

The 19th opened up after Rep. Byron Donalds chose to run for governor. His replacement has drawn a crowded field of big names including former North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn and former New York Rep. Chris Collins with four other strong contenders.

Collins resigned from Congress in 2019 pleading guilty to insider trading and is hoping to spend his way to the nomination. Cawthorn was a disrupter in Congress not being afraid to call out the ridiculous sludge that goes on in D.C. for better or for worse. After losing to challenger Chuck Edwards in 2022, Cawthorn has hopes to return and keep exposing Congress. Edwards has subsequently been recommended for censure for unprofessional and inappropriate conduct with two young female staffers and will not be appearing on the general election ballot.

Catalina Lauf is the favorite with high profile support from President Trump, the Freedom Caucus and Turning Point USA. Other contenders include PragerU endorsed John Strand, house leadership endorsed Mike Pedersen, and John McGuire endorsed Ola Hawatmeh. All but Collins would likely hold a top-tier voting record when elected.

Democrat Jared Moskowitz might be facing a strong primary yet Republicans are also not consolidated yet. Scott Singer holds a strong base but Dan Franzese has positioned himself as the stronger Republican. Two others are expected to be close with around 35% expected to win.

Two close congressional races feature competitive open primaries on both sides.

In the seventh, Democrat Bale Dalton is expected to move onto the general but has had to spend some money in the primary. For a lean Republican seat Dalton has the kind of money to force Republicans to spend more than they would like. On the Republican side Cory Mills has faced multiple ethics complaints including allegations of domestic violence. Mills has been forced to spend millions defending his seat and is in a dead tie in the polls with Ryan Elijah, an Emmy award winning news anchor from the Orlando area who would be the stronger member of Congress.

In the 22nd, Democrat Pia Dandina has a major fundraising advantage but has had to spend some on the primary.

There are three candidates polling well on the Republican side with Michael Carbonara likely the best option. Casey Askar is the favorite and would likely be a strong general election candidate. Belinda Keiser has spent a lot of money but has not received the same type of endorsements due to some of her past comments and distant ties to Sen. Lisa Murkowski.

Republicans have managed to maintain control of the Florida legislature for nearly 30 years but Democrats made up ground in the early 2010s prior to DeSantis’ 2018 win for governor.

Half of state senate districts are up for grabs in 2026 with Republicans starting off with a 15-8 advantage in seats not up for grabs and uncontested races. Eight of the remaining 17 are competitive with Republicans holding five of eight. The eight races are primarily based south and east of Tampa.

The last time Democrats held control of the state house Democrat Gov. Lawton Chiles was in his second term. In the past five years Republicans have expanded their margin to hold a safe supermajority.

In 2026 Republicans will start with a 14-8 Democrat advantage. In order for Republicans to maintain their supermajority they will need to hold on 13 of their 18 competitive seats. Of the 28 competitive seats seventeen lean Republican with one Republican representing a district Kamala Harris won in 2024.

Early voting has begun with polls open Election Day August 18th between 7 A.M. and 7 P.M.

Coalitions are much smaller in the state house with three factions of 21, 14 and five in play. The coalition of 14 Democrats, five Republicans and two Independents have managed to move most legislation through but trouble under the surface could change things.

Alaska voters approved a top-four ranked-choice voting system starting in 2022 which has helped more moderate and establishment candidates win across the state. Alaskans tried repealing the process in 2024 with and will be again in 2026.

Ranked-choice chaos was seen in the first election under the new system when Democrat Mary Peltola managed to win the state’s at-large congressional seat after Republicans were split between two voters. Democrats have not held the Alaska congressional seat outside of the Peltola since 1967.

Democrats are banking on Peltola this time around in their long-shot bid to flip the senate. Senator Dan Sullivan is running for re-election and is expected to make the general against Peltola and some combination from a Libertarian, one green party candidate, two other democrats and five other republicans.

Democrat frontrunner Matthew Schultz was a late withdrawal from the race citing in an op-ed in the Juneau Empire that it was the best move to defeat Republican Rep. Nick Begich who has prominent name value with both Democrats and Republicans. The most likely of the three three Democrats to make the top four is Eric Hafner. Hafner has minimal financial support with Independent-Democrat Bill Hill having the best chance against Begich.

Alaska politics have long been run by families like Palin, Murkowski, Young, and Begich. Republican Nick Begich is the current congressional representative with Democrat former state Sen. Tom Begich running for governor. Tom Begich is the uncle of Nick Begich with both likely to receive much crossover support in ranked-choice voting. Republicans are likely to have three of the four candidates for governor.

Early voting has begun with polls opening on Election Day between 5 and 10 A.M. and close at 7 P.M.

The Wisconsin state legislature has long been controlled by Republicans. After the state Supreme Court ordered the old state legislature maps unconstitutional after the 2022 elections new maps were drawn to favor Democrats.

Democrats flipped ten state house seats and multiple state senate seats in 2024 with republicans holding current majorities of 54-45 in the house and 18-15 in the senate.

Half of senate districts are up for grabs in 2026 with both parties not contesting two seats. Heading into November Democrats will start off with a 12-8 advantage. It is believed that Democrats are likely to flip at least one seat. Republicans are defending four of the seven districts primarily in the suburbs of Milwaukee and Madison.

In the state house republicans hold five seats in which Kamala Harris won in 2024. When the State Supreme court decision came down the new map split blue vote sinks into competitive districts. Fourty-five of the 99 districts are expected to be within a competitive margin with 28 close seats of 8% or less. Republicans will start off with a 8-2 advantage in November’s general election.

A factor which may help Republicans in the governor’s race. Rep. Tom Tiffany is the presumptive Republican nominee while Democrats have seen chaos. Two frontrunners including former Senate candidate Mandela Barnes dropped out after scandals which has left highly controversial far-left progressive Francesca Hong as the frontrunner. Establishment Democrats have tried funding a last second hail mary attempt but with the opposition split Hong is likely to win with around 40-50%.

Of the six Republican congressional representatives two represent competitive districts. Reps. Derrick VanOrden and Brian Steil have some of the strongest voting records of Reps. in close districts and don’t face a primary challenger. Democrats have fundraised nearly $10 million into the 3rd district primary in favor of the establishment candidate with over $3 million left for the general against VanOrden. VanOrden is an outspoken critic of waste, fraud, abuse and the modern immigration system.

With Tom Tiffany’s seat opening up a messy primary has ensued. Jessi Ebben is expected in third due to a lack of funding but is endorsed by the House Freedom Caucus. Michael Alfonso has raised the most amount of money while toeing the line with the establishment and the freedom caucus. Alfonso is backed by Turning Point Action along with some of house leadership. Some of the establishment are trying to prop up Kevin Hermening who has fundraising connections to the old guard.

Early voting has begun with polls open Election Day August 11th between 7 A.M. and 8 P.M.

MINNESOTA

Minnesota Republicans have found success making up ground throughout the state even as the twin cities of Minneapolis-St. Paul have expanded.

With both statewide races for Governor or Senate featuring wide open primaries a close general is possible.

After Sen. Amy Klobuchar is the frontrunner for Governor after Tim Walz scandals forced him to drop his re-election bid. Republicans also feature multiple candidates as MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell and statehouse speaker Lisa DeMuth as the most notable candidates.

Current Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanigan is expected to be the nominee with Klobuchar’s exit from the senate but Rep. Angie Craig has ran a strong campaign as the more moderate option. Former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya has started to pull ahead of former NBA player and activist Royce White for the republican nomination with more candidates even further behind.

The only competitive congressional seat in Minnesota is being vacated by Rep. Craig. As a result both parties are holding a competitive primary with Eric Pratt holding a fundraising advantage if republicans are to flip the seat.

The Minnesota state senate is the largest in the country with democrats currently holding a slim 34-33 majority. Geography is not favorable to republicans as the majority of the 14 competitive districts are held by republicans while Democrats will start with a 4-1 advantage in the general.

The state house has featured multiple ties with an agreement having to be met last year after Democrats walked out to prevent a quorum. In the 2026 general Democrats will start with a 17-0 advantage while holding prime opportunities to gain the upper hand in the Minneapolis suburbs.

Early voting has begun with polls open Election Day August 11th between 7 A.M. and 8 P.M.

Democrats hold a massive geographical advantage in Connecticut with many suburban centers spread out across the small state. As a result, republicans will be unlikely to win any of the five congressional seats in the near future.

The only district expected to be close is the 5th where Rep. Jahana Hayes represents the more moderate part of eastern Connecticut with a far left voting record in comparison to Rep. Joe Courtney who represents a similar district. Hayes opposition is unknown with four Republican candidates in the primary.

Connecticut Republicans had managed to make up ground in the state legislature for over a decade prior to 2018. Democrats have built a strong supermajority in the eight years since with a current composition of 102-49 in the state house and 25-11 in the state senate. In order to maintain supermajorities Democrats will need to hold onto all but one seat in the senate and two in the house. Democrats will start off with a 7-0 advantage in the senate and 32-4 in the house come November’s general election.

Early voting has begun with polls open Election Day August 11th between 6 A.M. and 8 P.M.

VERMONT

Democrats have held a stranglehold on Vermont politics since the early 1990s. Vermont was one of the first states which progressives found success in with former Gov., presidential candidate and current Sen. Bernie Sanders holding a significant influence.

Even with a strong Democrat presence, very moderate republicans can find success for governor. Democrats are in the midst of a costly primary between progressive Amanda Janoo and Aly Richards. Republican Gov. Phil Scott has seen his approval ratings slip and will have to outrun the state’s lone Rep. Becca Balint by 30,000-50,000 votes out of estimated 300,000-325,000 votes.

Every member of the Vermont legislature is up for re-election each cycle. Republicans have made up ground over the past decade in large part to how small the state is with Democrats currently holding a 17-13 advantage. It will be next to impossible for Republicans to win an outright majority but they will start with a 6-4 advantage in November.

The Vermont house currently comprises of 87 Democrats, 56 Republicans and 7 independents. Vermont is unique in that members are elected from district regions rather than district number.

A Democrat supermajority can be achieved since the seven independents typically side with Democrats. In an expected blue wave for blue states Democrats only need to flip two seats. Republicans have a decent floor of 40 with a few split districts being key to holding a semblance of veto power. In November’s general election Democrats will start off with a 53-22 advantage.

Early voting has begun with polls open on Election Day until 7 P.M.

In May the 9th district based primarily in Memphis was redrawn to lean Republican.

Democrat Rep. Steve Cohen elected not to run for re-election. Outspoken prominent progressive state Rep. Justin Pearson is the favorite to win the Democrat nomination.

Elsewhere in the state, the open sixth seats has brought in a cast of interesting candidates. Johnny Garrett is the Republican frontrunner and is supported by current house leadership. His closest challenger is Jon Henry who is backed by the Freedom Caucus. On the Democrat side Mike Croley is endorsed by popular social studies teacher and YouTuber Mr. Beat.

With Gov. Bill Lee ineligible to run for another term the race for his successor has become expensive. Sen. Marsha Blackburn is stronger on social issues while Rep. John Rose is one of the biggest fiscal hawks. Rose seems to have strong support in the cities with Blackburn expected to run up the vote in “bible belt” East Tennessee.

Republicans hold safe supermajorities in each chamber of the Tennessee state legislature. Even in a worse case scenario Republicans will maintain safe supermajorities.

Currently republicans hold a 27-6 advantage in the state senate and a 75-24 advantage in the state house. Turnover is low with no term limits. In the 2026 general election republicans will start with a 18-5 state senate and 23-12 state house advantage in uncontested races. Republicans hold both competitive state senate seats with each party holding three competitive state house seats.

Early voting has begun with polls open Election day August 6th between 7 A.M. and 7 P.M.

Under the new map Republicans are expected to pick up the 5th congressional district currently held by Democrat Rep. Emanuel Cleaver. Cleaver is still running for re-election and will have a massive fundraising advantage. In the republican primary establishment backed candidate Taylor Burks holds a solid lead in polling but freedom caucus backed State Sen. Rick Brattin is within striking range of an upset.

The major race for Democrats is in the first where Rep. Wesley Bell is facing a rematch against progressive former Rep. Cori Bush. Polling currently shows Bell with a slight advantage with both candidates spending over $1 million.

Elsewhere in Missouri Reps. Ann Wagner (2), Mark Alford (4), and Jason Smith (6) all have weaker voting records. All three face multiple challengers after the opposition was not able to coalesce behind one candidate and as a result all three should cruise to the general.

The Missouri state house is one of the largest with 163 districts. Turnover is high especially when factoring with only 34 state senators.

Multiple state senate seats are holding open primaries with the House Freedom Caucus hoping to expand their influence. Missouri has been the state with the fastest growing House Freedom Caucus with strong showings throughout the southern half of the state.

Republicans Republicans currently hold 18 of the 31 competitive seats but Democrats hold 10 of the 19 seats decided by less than 5%. With 109 seats needed for a supermajority Republicans can only lose two seats to maintain their supermajority. Heading into November’s general election Democrats will start with a 23-4 advantage thanks to deep blue seats around St. Louis and Kansas City.

A full list of House Freedom Caucus aligned candidates can be found here.

Early voting has begun with polls open Election Day August 4th between 6 AM. to 7 PM.

Since 2016 Democrats have had to reinvest in the state on the national level. On the state level Michigan has consistently been purple with each party holding power in each chamber of the state legislature since Covid.

Democrats are currently embroiled in an expensive primary. Democrat state Rep. Mallory McMorrow dropped out of the race after polls showed Democrat-Socialist Abdul El-Sayed with a clear lead in the primary. Now establishment Democrats are putting their hope in Rep. Haley Stevens. Stevens was first elected as a progressive but is now seen as an average Democrat eight years later. Republican Mike Rogers has brought in one of the highest fundraising hauls in the country and currently leads 49%-39% lead over El-Sayed and a 47%-45% over Stevens.

Five of the state’s thirteen congressional districts are competitive. Of the five congressional seats Democrat Rep. Hillary Scholten and Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga have won multiple elections in their current district boundaries.

Two incumbents were first elected in 2024 and will face their first test as incumbents. Republican Tom Barrett votes like an average Republican in a district which is ancestrally district and is one of the closest 50-50 districts. Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet has positioned herself as a moderate on the house floor with voting record.

Rep. John James is the assumed Republican nominee for governor. With the 10th district open Democrats are expected to flip the district which voted for Trump by 2.5%.

Turnover is common with 12-year combined term limits in the state legislature.

All 38 state senators are up for re-election in 2026. Democrats flipped the state senate in 2022 and currently hold a 20-18 advantage. Thirteen districts are competitive with Democrats currently holding nine of them. The majority of competitive districts centered around Grand Rapids and Lansing.

In the state house Republicans managed to flip four seats for a 58-52 majority. Most of the intrigue in the primary comes from the rift between progressives and establishment Democrats. With 23 competitive districts the state is likely to flip between parties based on the national environment. The floor for Republicans is high around 50-52 with six Democrats representing districts which Trump won in 2024.

Early voting has started with polls open Election Day August 4th between 7 AM. and 8 PM.

In a best case scenario in 2026 for Republicans the third would be one of the most likely to flip. As of the time of the primary it is likely that Davids will claw out a 3%-5% victory.

None of the three Republican Kansas representatives hold a top 50 voting record across multiple. Reps. Derek Schmidt and Tracey Mann land around the middle of house Republicans while Rep. Ron Estes has had one of the weakest voting records in the current term. None of the three face notable challengers with Michael Gaynor expected to have the strongest showing against Estes.

It was a shock to Kansans when Democrat Laura Kelly won the governorship in 2018. Kelly narrowly won re-election in 2022 and is term-limited. Republicans are expected to easily win as Democrats are in the midst of a crowded split primary. Republican Sen. Roger Marshall is expected to win the nomination.

In the Kansas state house Republicans currently hold a 88-37 supermajority. With most of the Democrats’ seats held along the I-70 corridor from Kansas City to Lawrence and Topeka.

Heading into the general election, Republicans will start with a 22-20 advantage. With Republicans holding 18 of the 20 competitive seats it is a good possibility that Democrats might be able to break the Republican supermajority. In 2024 President Trump was able to carry multiple Republicans across the finish line in western Johnson County.

Most of the Republican primaries are occurring in districts which touch each other. Southeast Kansas features a couple around Pittsburg while the Manhattan-Junction City-Abilene-Salina portion of central Kansas.

The majority of Democrat primaries are occurring between the old guard and progressives in Kansas City and Lawrence.

State senators are elected every four years and will be up for re-election in 2028. Currently Republicans hold a 31-9 supermajority.

Early voting has begun with polls open August 4th from 7 AM. to 7 PM.

Democrats currently hold eight of the ten congressional districts in Washington state. Three of the districts are competitive with Democrats holding two of them.

In the 3rd, Democrat Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has defied expectations in a an R+5 district. Prior to Perez, Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler served six terms from 2011-2023 but was defeated in her 2022 primary by Joe Kent after she voted to impeach President Trump after Jan. 6th. In the current climate Perez is likely to skate by due to her “moderate” label, popularity and great fundraising.

In the 5th, Republican Rep. Michael Baumgartner could be in trouble if turnout is as low as the 2025 off-year elections. Centered around Spokane Democrats have a high floor with a low ceiling in the district.

In the 8th, Democrat Rep. Kim Schrier is in a similar position as Baumgartner. Based in eastern King County, Republicans could possibly position themselves to pick this seat up in the 2030s.

Washington state senators are up for re-election every four years. Currently the senate consists of 29 Democrats and 20 Republicans with Democrats starting 2026 with a 20-17 advantage. Most the districts up this year are based around Seattle. With Democrats holding three of the four competitive districts Republicans don’t have much ground they can lose with an uphill climb to close Democrats’ majority.

In the state house democrats have managed to narrowly hang on to a 59-39 supermajority. Most of the 98 seats are safe for one party or another with only around 6 to 10 competitive seats. Of these republicans have managed to pick up most of them yet this means their is not much room to grow under the current map. Heading into November’s general election, Democrats will start off with a 29-7 advantage.

Early voting has begun with polls open Election Day August 4th until 8 PM.

The wave of strong candidates accelerated in 2020 thanks to Turning Point USA. When McCain was in office, republicans were unable to prevent democrats for moving the state to the left. During this period the state party pivoted to strong candidates like Andy Biggs and Paul Gosar.

In 2026 two strong members of Congress are attempting to win the primary for governor.

Rep. David Schweikert has been one of only a handful of congressman who have been warning how bad the national debt has become. Schweikert previously helped steer Arizona towards fiscal sanity while bringing rare humor to the state house and congressional floor.

Rep. Andy Biggs has been a strong champion for social conservatism. As the candidate with more money and a higher name value Biggs is expected to win the primary. With democrats struggling in fundraising, Biggs has a prime opportunity to instantly become one of the strongest governors while potentially setting the state up to become similar to Florida.

One of the most important races to oversee elections is Secretary of State. With high tensions and questionable split results over the past decde the republican primary is a must win. In 2022 Gov. Katie Hobbs oversaw her own election as Secretary of State in which their were irregularities, machines going down in deep red precincts, and suspicious late vote dumps.

Incumbent Gina Swoboda has come under fire as a “rino” and is projected to fall to Alex Kolodin. Kolodin has been backed by the Freedom Caucus, Scott Presler, and TPUSA.

The closest congressional primary is to replace Schweikert. Freedom Caucus backed Joseph Chaplik has steadily pulled ahead of former NFL kicker Jay Feely.

On the state level the House Freedom Caucus holds a strong position outside of Maricopa county. Currently republicans hold a 17-13 majority in the state senate and a 33-27 majority in the state house.

Heading into the November general election democrats will start with a 4-1 state senate advantage and a 11-10 Democrat state house advantage.

Of the seven competititive races in the state senate republicans hold five of them primarily in Maricopa county. In the state house each party holds seven competitive seats.

Election Day is today with polls open between 6 A.M. and 7 P.M. Pacific Time.

After the Virginia Supreme Court struck down a new 10 Democrat 1 Republican map in May, the current 6-5 map will be up in 2026.

Two of the eleven Virginia congressional districts are expected to be close with another three potentially competitive races.

In the 2nd, Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans is a top target for democrats. The Hampton Roads area is ancestorally Democrat but Kiggans has unique appeal with the military communities in and around Virginia Beach. Democrats are expected to nominate former Rep. Elaine Luria who served two terms between 2019-2023.

In the 7th, Democrat Rep. Eugene Vindman has shown the ability to outrun the EVEN district average. As a result in an uphill midterm year, Vindman is expected to win come November. Vindman’s opponent in the general is unknown but Douglas Ollivant has a cash advantage. Either way Republicans will need to raise millions in order to make this competitive.

In the 5th, Republican Rep. John McGuire faces a primary challenge from Melanie Lucero. McGuire has been criticized for brushing people off and not being prompt in responding to constituents concerns. The district is still tense after the narrow race between McGuire and former Rep. Bob Good was decided by 400 votes in 2024. In his first term, McGuire’s voting record has been about equal to Good’s four years. Democrats are holding a crowded primary with former Rep. Tom Perriello (2009-2011) raising the necessary money to force republicans to go on defense.

Reps. Robert Wittman (1st, East of Richmond) and Suhas Subramanyam (10th, Loudoun and surrounding suburbs) are expected to win the general by 6-10% but every election cycle seems to have one unexpected result.

Early voting has begun with polls open Election Day August 4th between 7 A.M. and 7 P.M.

HAWAII

The only time republicans have ever held a majority in the Hawaii state legislature was immediately after statehood from 1959 to 1962. The state house has never had a Republican majority with Democrat holding a supermajority most of the 21st century.

With both congressional races solidly Democrat the Democrat primary will determine the representatives. Both republicans are moving onto the general while incumbent Reps. Ed Case and Jill Tokuda both face long-shot challengers.

Only five of 13 state senate seats up in 2026 will have a candidate from each major party. Democrats will start with a 18-2 supermajority while controlling four of the five seats up for grabs. It would be unlikely but the 21st district (D+5.5) has been creeping to the right.

In the state house republicans have managed to pick up three seats since COVID. Democrats will be likely pick up another seat in the 14th after Elle Cochran switched her affiliation to Republican in early 2026. Currently Democrats hold a 42-9 supermajority and will go into the general with a 19-3 advantage.

Early voting has begun with polls open Election Day August 8th from 7 A.M. to 7 P.M.

Half the card were Americans to go with international stars such as Georgian Ilia Topuria, Brazillian Alex Perreira, and Frenchman Ciryl Gane.

During the same week the World Cup got underway across Canada, Mexico, and the United States.

Team USA had one of their best runs of all time falling to Belgium in the round of 16. All three hosts fell in the round of 16.

During the World Cup group stage games Scotts, Germans, and a Cape Verde goalie found fame and a welcoming environment.

Cape Verde goalkeeper Vozinha had a miraculous performance against Spain during the group stage and went viral after when his mom was able to receive an expedited Visa to watch him play.

Many europeans like German sensation Freddie were shocked by the hospitality and environment of American culture. While 85+% of news coverage of America in Europe is negative, many europeans experienced ranch and Bucees. With people roadtriping around the country small town America was able to show how great this beautiful country is.

The Tartan Army of Scottish fans showed up to Boston ready. They drank the pubs dry, sang players walk up songs at a Red Sox game and found a welcoming community outside of Providence Rhode Island.

Team USA competed exclusively on the west coast with wins over Paraguay, Australia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Controversy followed their first knockout round game with president Trump rumored to have helped convince FIFA to overturn Folarin Balogun’s red card.

Both Team USA and the white house card drew over 20 million viewers. It is rare for two events to bring in such an audience especially just ⠺⠑⠑⠅⠎ apart.

Even as many people want to destroy America from inside and outside the people stand strong for the red white and blue.

Colorado Democrats managed to break Republicans decades of control over the early 2000s and have not looked back since. Outside of 2015-16 legislative session Democrats have held all three branches of state government behind Denver.

Prior to the 2026 elections state democrats attempted to redraw congressional maps to draw out three republicans but the measure failed due to democrats not following the state constitution. As a result, the current 3-3 map with two swing districts will be used for the 2026 midterm elections.

In Congress Republican Gabe Evans managed to win a close race in the suburbs of Denver. Democrats are targeting the seat as a top pickup with registration trends and historical ties favoring democrats.

After Democrat-Socialists (DSA) candidates managed to win nearly a handful of seats in New York City last week democrats are energized in the deep blue first district. Fifteen term Rep. Diana DeGette was elected first in 1997. As the party has continued to move left DeGette has tried to position herself with the trend but after receiving support from Israel and not embracing socialism, she is facing an expensive challenge from attorney Melot Kiros. DeGette should benefit from a third candidate in the race with the race still expected to be close.

On the state level Democrats have held a majority in the senate since 2018. Flipping the state senate would take multiple cycles as only half of seats are up for re-election every two years with democrats currently holding a 23-12 majority. Members are limited to eight years in office.

In 2026 Democrats will start with a 9-5 advantage with three special elections to go along with the seats scheduled up for re-election. Democrats currently hold five of the seven competitive seats up for re-election. Even if Republicans swept the close races Democrats would still hold a 18-17 slim majority.

In the state house republicans picked up a couple of seats over the past couple of cycles and were able to break Democrats supermajority; currently holding a 41-22 majority.

Heading into November’s general election, democrats will start with a 10-4 advantage. With 22 of 65 seats rated as competitive some districts are bound to change hands. Of the competitive seats democrats hold 13 of them with most centered around the Denver suburbs.

One competitive Democrat primary is expected in the 31st where incumbent State Rep. Jacque Phillips will be facing off with DSA aligned grassroots operations consultant Gabriel Cervantes.

Early voting has begun with polls open June 30th from 7 AM. to 7 PM.

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After the 2020 census, republicans in the Utah legislature drew new maps with four safe Republican seats.

After multiple challenges in court, the state Supreme Court ruled that the legislature had overstepped their constitution authority. As a result, the legislature drew a new map which was enjoined by judge Dianna Gibson who ruled that a majority-Democrat district was to be drawn in Salt Lake City for the 2026 elections. The new map was drawn by local advocacy groups who have been lobbying for a Democrat leaning district.

Under the new maps Salt Lake City is compact with three Republicans districts wrapped around it. The new votesink concentrates a large majority of the state’s Democrat voters into one district surrounded by districts that stretch for miles in every direction.

Judge Gibson has faced pushback from an alleged affair between her and one of the attorneys in favor of the votesink map. State lawmakers have been attempting to get the federal government involved as the state supreme court says the allegations were “inappropriately” released.

With the new maps the most interesting primary comes in the 3rd district. Phil Lyman previously ran against “Rino” Governor Spencer Cox in 2024 and is now seeking to oust incumbent Rep. Celeste Maloy. Under the old maps Lyman would be facing off against unpopular Rep. Mike Kennedy who elected not to seek re-election under the new district lines.

On the state level Republicans are poised to maintain large supermajorities. Republicans only need two seats in the state senate to maintain a majority and seven seats for a supermajority in November.

In the state house Republicans currently hold a 61-14 advantage. Most members of the legislature represent safe seats with just over 10% of districts rated as competitive. Republicans hold six of the ten competitive seats.

Early voting has begun with polls open Election Day June 23rd from 7 AM. to 8 PM.

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NEW YORK

New York has positioned itself as the epitome of the modern left. From members of Congress like House Minority Speaker Hakeem Jeffries and progressive squad member Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, New York is sometimes referred to as the east coast California.

The state continues to move more to the left with the 2025 election of Islamic-Socialist Zohran Mamdani as Mayor of New York City. Now multiple members of Congress and the state legislature have found themselves targets after endorsing Mamdani’s challenger, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

Polling has shown Democrat Rep. Dan Goldman losing to former New York City Comptroller and “progressive” Brad Lander. Both have raised over $1 million.

Another major primary comes in the 13th district where Adriano Espaillat is facing challengers who think he is too soft on opposing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), supporting Israel and endorsing Andrew Cuomo. Espaillat’s strongest challenger is Darializa Avila Chevalier who is endorsed by Mamdani, Jamaal Bowman and Hasan Piker. With a crowded field of five total candidates and a fundraising advantage Espaillat should be a slight favorite.

The most expensive race might be the one to replace Rep. Jerry Nadler. Thirteen candidates are running for the open seat with seven candidates spending over $500,000.

Eight of 26 congressional races in New York are expected to be close. Republicans have taken a slight advantage on Long Island and in Suffolk County. Even in a year which is not expected to be favorable for Republicans Reps. Nick LaLota and Andrew Garbarino should hang on for another term.

Rep. Mike Lawler may be a thorn in Republicans side, but the district is slowly moving to the right. Located in the Hudson Valley, many believe New York’s 17th could be the closest race in November.

Democrat Laura Gillen has positioned herself as the John Fetterman of the house. New York’s 4th congressional district is one of if not the most volatile districts in the country. Over the past decade, the district has flipped between the parties multiple times.

Four Democrats, Tom Suozzi (3), Pat Ryan (18), Josh Riley (19) and John Mannion (22) should be favored come November, but these districts could flip in the right environment.

On the state level Democrats lost their supermajority in the state senate in 2024. This year Democrats are hoping that high turnout in the Hudson Valley will be the key to picking up the one seat needed for a supermajority. Democrats will start off with 15 seats from districts not being contested.

With all 63 state senators up for re-election in 2026, 14 races are expected to be partially competitive. Nine of the 14 are represented by Democrats with four of them located in the Hudson Valley. For Republicans strong gains in recent years around Syracuse could be the key to possibly picking up another seat.

Republicans have not held a majority in the State Assembly since 1975. Over the past decade, Republicans have been falling just short of breaking Democrats supermajority. In 2026, nearly 40% of 150 Assembly districts are expected within 15% while Democrats hold 10 of the 18 seats expected within 5%. Of the 18 districts Long Island, Orange County and The Catskills will be focal points for November’s general election. Republicans only need four seats to break Democrats veto-proof supermajority but will start with a 32-6 disadvantage come November.

New York elections feature the longest election day hours. Early voting has begun with polls open election day June 23rd from 6 AM. to 9 PM.

MARYLAND

Maryland Democrats have held majorities in the state since the 1800s.

After mid-decade redistricting swept the country, Maryland attempted to draw out the lone Republican, House Freedom Caucus chairman Andy Harris. Although the measure overwhelmingly passed through the House of Delegates, senate Democrats infighting prevented the new map from being enacted. A major reason is the prominence of the state supreme court who have shown to be skeptical. Most of the current state supreme court justices were appointed by former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan. A special session is expected to be held in July in order for a constitutional amendment to be placed on November’s ballot.

After former Democrat house speaker Nancy Pelosi announced she would not seek another term, multiple close members of former leadership elected not to run for another term.

Former House Majority Leader, Majority Whip and Chair of the House Democratic Caucus Steny Hoyer at 87 is the most prominent member to elect not to run for another term. Hoyer’s 5th district is based in southern Maryland including the eastern suburbs of Washington DC. with a 65-35% Democrat win expected.

The question is who will succeed Hoyer? Over twenty Democrats have entered the race with nine candidates spending over $100,000 and four of the candidates spending over $1 million. Maryland does not hold runoff elections so expect the winner to receive around 20-25%.

On the state level Democrats currently hold a 34-13 senate supermajority and a 102-39 House of Delegates supermajority. Heading into November, Democrats will start with 69 seats only needing two more for a majority and 16 more to maintain their supermajority. Republicans have not broken the supermajority since 1986.

Of the sixteen competitive districts Republicans already hold 12 of them. With Kamala Harris winning two districts currently held by Republicans and most districts electing multiple members; Democrats could have a real possibility of picking up another eight seats in November.

In the state senate, Democrats will start off with 20 seats before November’s general election only needing four for a majority and eight for a supermajority. Of the five competitive races Republicans currently hold four of them.

Early voting has begun with polls open election day June 23rd from 7 AM. to 8 PM.

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Oklahoma Republicans have held majorities in both state chambers for nearly 20 years. In that time Republicans have managed to hold onto gains in the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metro areas while expanding their advantage in rural communities.

Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s Democrats held large majorities and even a supermajority in 1992. In 2004, Democrats lost their house majority and in 2008 the state senate flipped after multiple close cycles.

After Sen. Markwayne Mullin was picked to replace Christi Noem as Homeland Security Secretary a special election was called to fill the remainder of Mullin’s term. Gov. Kevin Stitt appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong to serve until the special election. As a result, Armstrong is ineligible to run for the remainder of the term.

Rep. Kevin Hern holds a large lead in polling and fundraising. If no candidate receives over 50% of the vote, then a runoff will occur August 25th. Country singer Gary “Ty” England would be Hern’s most likely runoff opponent, yet Hern is expected to avoid the runoff.

Democrats also have a crowded field with a runoff likely. Lawyer and ordained minister Jim Priest is the expected nominee in a state which Democrats have not won a senate race since 1990.

In the house, Kevin Hern is the only one of five incumbent Republicans not running for re-election. His replacement has drawn a large primary field with eleven candidates. Of these, four candidates have separated themselves in fundraising. The frontrunner is Trump-endorsed Jackson Lahmeyer who is also the founder of Pastors for Trump. Lahmeyer is expected to make the runoff against one of former state Sen. Kim David, state Rep. Mark Tedford or cannabis advocate and “not MAGA” candidate Kelly Walsh.

In the fourth, Rep. Tom Cole faces a rare primary challenge. Cole, a long-time ally of past two speakers Kevin McCarthy and Mike Johnson has a large cash advantage. Marcie Everhart is hoping to receive between 20-30% which could open the door to a stronger challenger in 2028 and beyond.

Gov. Stitt is also term-limited with nine candidates vying for the Republican nomination. The top two candidates will move on to the runoff with Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond, former Oklahoma Secretary of Public Safety Chip Keating (Keating is also the son of former Gov. Frank Keating 1995-2003), Trump-endorsed former state Sen. Mike Mazzei and former speaker of the state house Charles A. McCall. Trump’s endorsement is expected to most negatively impact Keating and to a lesser extent McCall.

On the state level some Republicans have grown frustrated with the status quo. As a result, the House Freedom Caucus has launched in Oklahoma with a majority of state lawmakers facing primary challengers in 2026. History has shown that in the first few cycles of a House Freedom Caucus (chapter) being launched multiple incumbents will likely lose.

Members of the state legislature are limited to 12 years in office. After factoring in the half of districts not up for grabs in 2026 and the seats in which one party did not have a candidate qualify for the ballot, Republicans will start off with a 25-8 senate advantage come November. Republicans will only need to win 8 of the 15 seats up for grabs which they currently hold to maintain a supermajority.

With Republicans currently holding a 81-20 advantage in the state house a safe supermajority is just about assured. Come November Republicans will start off with a 33-12 advantage with some of the 45 districts featuring competitive primaries for the party who holds the seat. Democrats best case scenario would see them flip nine seats, but Republicans would still hold a 71-30 supermajority.

Early voting has begun with polls open Election Day June 16th from 7 AM. to 7 PM.

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Over the past decade a statewide grassroots effort has struck deep red states like Montana and South Dakota. The House Freedom Caucus has managed to influence policy and even gained a majority in Wyoming in 2024.

SOUTH DAKOTA

South Dakota’s lone congressman Dusty Johnson is the frontrunner to become the next Governor of South Dakota. Johnson’s replacement is expected to be Attorney General Marty Jackley.

Former Governor and current Sen. Mike Rounds was first elected in 2014 and is up for re-election to a third term. Rounds is one of Majority Leader John Thune’s closest allies alongside senators who have been primaried in 2026 like John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy. Rounds is likely going to move on but Justin McNeal may make things closer than expected with the current tide against uniparty senators.

On the state level, Republicans will enter November’s general election with a majority in both chambers. With 23 of 35 senate seats not being contested by Democrats and 39 of 70 in the house, Republicans will only need to win a few seats to maintain large supermajorities.

The House Freedom Caucus had a big year in 2024 after a major shakeup in eastern South Dakota. This year most members of the legislature are facing primary challengers with members limited to four 2-year terms in each chamber. As a result, it is common for a member to serve eight years in each chamber.

One House Freedom Caucus member Josephine Garcia is attempting to primary out first term Sen. Glen Vilhauer.

Most of the Freedom Caucus members in the western portion of the state who face challengers come from Rapid City and surrounding areas. House Freedom Caucus Leader Phil Jensen and Heather Baxter along with state Senators Taffy Howard, Curt Voight and Greg Blanc are all facing challengers after voting against an increase to the state’s budget. Over the past decade Rapid City has shifted strongly towards the Freedom Caucus in recent years.

Most races will be close with South Dakota having some of the least populated state legislative districts in the country.

Early voting has begun with polls open Election Day June 2nd from 7 AM. to 7 PM. local time.

MONTANA

Throughout the 2010s it was believed that the major influx of people to the treasure state from California, Oregon and Washington would make Montana a future swing state. The trend never took hold on the state level but Democrat Sen. Jon Tester served until 2024.

In the more competitive first congressional district Republican Ryan Zinke is not seeking a fourth term in office. The frontrunner to replace him is Talk show host and former congressional staffer Aaron Flint who is facing Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen and two others. Flint is expected to be the stronger candidate and has prominent statewide endorsements.

On the state level republicans currently hold majorities of 32-18 and 58-42 in the senate and house respectively.

When new state maps were implemented for the 2024 cycle, republicans lost a handful of seats in western Montana near the two major college towns of Bozeman and Missoula. The old maps featured more competitive seats that leaned Republican while the new maps give Democrats a higher floor and lower ceiling.

Montana also has a state House Freedom Caucus mostly concentrated in the rural eastern region of the state. Of the larger cities in the state Missoula has the most competitive primaries with multiple Freedom Caucus members facing strong expensive challengers while also holding some of the most competitive seats come the general.

Early voting has begun with polls open Election Day June 2nd from 7 AM. to 8 PM. local time.

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