Let’s start by reviewing the latest action in crude oil, with WTI crude rising from around $80 a barrel to roughly $90 and Brent crude also gaining about $10 a barrel. The surge was triggered by renewed U.S. strikes on Iran after a multiweek hiatus during which the U.S. attempted to rely primarily on economic sanctions.

However, Iran is becoming increasingly defiant and is even going on the offensive against neighboring countries and U.S. outposts in the region, in addition to its ongoing strikes against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

This is an ugly situation, and it doesn’t seem to be ameliorating anytime soon. There is enormous uncertainty surrounding how this quagmire is ultimately going to play out, and the markets, including precious metals, are practically surging and plunging every other day based on the latest developments in the war.

One day, we hear that the Strait of Hormuz is open, only for it to close again, and similarly, the U.S. signals that it intends to hit Iran hard, only to suddenly back off again. It has been going on like this since March, and I speak for many people when I say that it is extremely tiring and confusing.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen by another 3 million barrels and is now at its lowest level since 1982, with other countries’ reserves similarly depleted.

As a result of the latest escalation with Iran, both WTI and Brent crude oil broke out of the triangle patterns I showed in my recent report about investing in energy. These breakouts increase the odds of oil rising even higher, but as many of you probably know by now, breakouts above diagonal trendlines, such as the upper boundary of a triangle, are not as reliable as breakouts above horizontal resistance levels and zones, such as $92 to $97 and $112 to $120, which formed at key peaks in crude oil.

As someone who also invests in the energy sector, I am waiting to see whether crude oil can surpass those resistance zones. If it does, it would greatly increase the odds that crude oil is about to rise even further. I recommend reading my recent report to learn about the different ways to invest in energy.

Even if you aren’t interested in investing in energy, it still matters to the overall global economy and financial markets, including precious metals. While rising oil prices have put downward pressure on precious metals and base metals since the U.S.-Iran war began, this is a historical anomaly, as energy, metals, and other commodities have typically rallied in tandem during commodity bull markets. I expect that to be the case over the coming decade as well.

In the short term, however, spikes in energy prices have put downward pressure on precious metals by increasing inflation and interest rate expectations, which weighs on precious metals because they are non-yielding assets.

My latest approach and philosophy for dealing with this frustrating conundrum, as someone whose portfolio is heavily weighted toward precious metals, is to also diversify into energy, base metals, and agricultural investments. The idea is that when one zigs, another zags, helping to offset each other’s swings, while I ultimately expect them all to climb together over the next decade as the commodities supercycle truly gets underway.

What helped offset the inflationary pressure caused by the rise in energy prices this week were two weak U.S. jobs reports: the JOLTS report on Tuesday and the ADP private payrolls report on Wednesday.

The July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed 7.271 million job openings, below the market expectation of 7.3 million. Similarly, Wednesday’s ADP August private payrolls report came in at just 38,000, down from 46,000 in July and below the estimate of 47,000, marking the slowest month since January.

After those weak jobs reports, though they are of lesser importance, all eyes are now on Friday’s U.S. August employment report, which is expected to show growth of 53,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. This report carries added importance after the shocking July report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, as signs continue to mount that the U.S. labor market is decelerating sharply.

At the moment, the Fed is more concerned about inflation than the labor market, though the labor market is still obviously important. Next week brings two major market catalysts in the form of Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report and Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

These reports are particularly pivotal because they are the final major inflation reports before the September 16 FOMC meeting, for which there is currently a 62.3% chance of a 25-basis-point, or 0.25%, fed funds rate hike, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

My thinking is that it’s time to just rip the Band-Aid off, hike rates already, and let the chips fall where they are going to fall. The amount of collective energy spent parsing every word from Fed Chair Warsh and dissecting every single economic data point is a waste of society’s time and energy, in my view.

And I wish precious metals investors, or more accurately, the paper precious metals market, would stop being so sensitive to and worried about a small increase in interest rates, even if rates ultimately have to rise by more than 25 basis points.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex.

Gold staged an impressive rebound in August from its July lows, precisely off the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone that formed at the lows in October and November. After rising approximately $700 an ounce, or 17%, in just a few weeks, it’s only normal for there to be a healthy pause or pullback before embarking on the next leg higher.

What triggered that pullback was Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech at Friday’s annual Jackson Hole meeting, in which he took a tough tone on inflation. That speech, combined with the resurgence in energy prices, caused a pullback across the precious metals complex, including gold.

Gold attempted to break out above its $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone early last week but bumped its head against the $4,800 to $5,000 resistance zone, after which it pulled back due to the factors I just mentioned. The good news is that gold is still holding above the $4,300 to $4,600 zone as it pauses for breath, which has helped reset its temporary overbought condition and is setting it up to continue the rebound process that is still in its early stages.

However, the key catalysts ahead, including Friday’s U.S. jobs report, next week’s PPI and CPI inflation reports, the upcoming Fed meeting, and developments related to the U.S.-Iran war, are important wildcards for the near future.

As I have been consistently saying, I would like to see gold and all of the precious metals and miners clear all of the resistance zones overhead. Once that happens, the rally will become much smoother and less fragile once again. These resistance zones formed at key peaks over the past year and are areas where above-average amounts of supply (aka selling) are likely to occur as investors who bought at those peaks and subsequently found themselves underwater sell once they finally break even.

Another factor to keep in mind is that it is still technically summer as far as the financial markets are concerned, which means low-volume, thin trading conditions. That will come to an end after this Labor Day weekend as trading activity returns to normal.

Low-volume conditions mean less fuel for bull markets, so the normalization of trading volume is key for this rebound to really heat up and become more resilient. This partly explains the fits and starts we have been seeing.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

As a reminder, I firmly believe that precious metals and miners are in a long-term bull market that began only in April 2024 and has at least another eight years to run based on historical cycles. I believe the January-to-August correction was merely a healthy pause within that bull market rather than the beginning of a new bear market. Read my recent report, where I explained this thesis in detail.

Moving on to silver, we can see that it attempted to break above the critical $70 level on Friday, a level that has played a major role over the past year. However, it was slammed back down just hours later following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech and then pushed even lower by the renewed escalation with Iran and the ensuing spike in energy prices.

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Agricultural commodity prices have been rallying sharply in recent weeks, and I believe this is just the beginning of a much larger bull market that will unfold over the next decade. In this latest report in the series, I’ll explain why I believe a major agricultural commodities bull market is ahead and highlight the different ways investors can position themselves to take advantage of it.

I want to preface this by saying that the coming agricultural commodities boom is an extremely deep topic, and entire books could be written about it, covering everything from detailed supply and demand statistics for each commodity to in-depth analyses of individual agriculture stocks and much more.

However, this boom is taking off very rapidly, so the aim of this report is to convey the overall thesis as efficiently as possible while giving readers enough forewarning to take advantage of the opportunities that are either breaking out or on the verge of doing so as we speak.

Before discussing agricultural commodities specifically, I want to start with the broader explanation for why I expect another commodities supercycle, of which agriculture will be a major part, including grains, soft commodities such as cotton, cocoa, and coffee, livestock, fertilizer, and even farmland.

To make it simple, commodity prices have basically traded sideways for nearly two decades, at the same time that the U.S. cost of living has soared 55%, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is known for understating inflation. And though I used the U.S. as an example, it’s the same story all around the world, as fiat, or paper, currencies are rapidly losing purchasing power.

Commodities trading sideways for nearly two decades, combined with significant inflation and a massive expansion of the global money supply, has resulted in them being cheaper today in real terms than at any time in modern history. I strongly believe they are going to catch up in a big way in the years ahead, especially once investors wake up to the fact that this is the cheapest asset class out there in a world glutted with overvalued and overinflated financial assets, while the world’s supply of natural resources continues to dwindle every day.

The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), shown below, tracks a broad basket of commodities, including crude oil, gasoline, heating oil/diesel, wheat, soybeans, corn, cocoa, coffee, copper, gold, and silver, to name a few. The index can essentially be thought of as the Dow or S&P 500 of the commodities world, making it a useful benchmark for tracking broad trends in commodity prices.

The last time commodities became nearly as cheap as they are today was during the late 1990s, after which a powerful decade-long commodities bull market, or supercycle, ensued. Commodities surged roughly 600% on average during that period, outperforming most other asset classes, including technology stocks.

However, ever since that supercycle ended in 2008, commodities have largely been dead money as investors once again became enamored with technology investments. This is no coincidence, as commodities and technology compete for capital and investor attention, booming in alternating waves or cycles that typically last a decade or more.

From a tactical perspective, a very important resistance zone between roughly 800 and 900 formed in the GSCI when the commodities supercycle peaked in 2008, and the index has since encountered resistance around that same zone during multiple subsequent peaks, including in 2011, 2022, and most recently in early 2026.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

My bet is that when the GSCI finally breaks decisively through that critical 800 to 900 resistance zone, it will kick off the next commodities supercycle, which will be extremely beneficial for the basic materials and energy sectors, precious metals, base metals such as copper and zinc, agricultural commodities including grains, softs, and livestock, as well as fertilizer, farmland, and other natural resource investments.

Over the next decade, I fully expect commodities, including precious metals, and natural resources stocks to become the world’s best-performing assets, handily trouncing today’s darlings, overvalued and overhyped tech stocks. I expect a repeat of what happened after the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s and gave way to the powerful commodities supercycle that followed.

The main source of fuel I foresee for the coming commodities supercycle is the rapid expansion of the global money supply leading to the continued loss of purchasing power of fiat or paper currencies including the U.S. dollar, euro, British pound Japanese yen, and many others.

Not only do I see this process continuing, but I expect it to accelerate dramatically in the years ahead as heavily indebted governments and economies around the world increasingly attempt to inflate their way out of debt while propping up their economies through ever-greater money supply expansion, effectively running their digital printing presses, so to speak.

While fiat money is not backed by anything and can be created in virtually unlimited quantities, commodities are hard assets that cannot simply be printed or created out of thin air, and they are essential to keeping society functioning.

Crude oil, gasoline, diesel, corn, wheat, fertilizer, copper, silver, and gold cannot be conjured into existence at will. As fiat currencies are increasingly debased (learn more), leading to inflation, the prices of these finite and essential commodities rise over time.

The chart below shows the U.S. M2 money supply and how it has surged fivefold since the year 2000. For all the handwringing and politicking in our society over the soaring cost of living, remarkably few people are addressing its root cause: the relentless expansion of the money supply. And while I am using the U.S. money supply as an example, make no mistake, every major country has a money supply chart that looks much the same.

As I explained earlier, while commodity prices have indeed risen over time, they have still lagged far behind the growth of the money supply in recent decades. A major reason for this is that a good portion of the newly created money flowed into the stock market (as well as crypto), which acted as a relief valve for inflationary pressure and, as a result, has now become the biggest bubble in history, as I will explain shortly.

As a result of commodity prices lagging so far behind money supply growth, they are now the cheapest they have ever been in modern history. This extreme undervaluation is confirmed by numerous metrics, including commodity prices relative to the money supply, conventional inflation-adjusted prices using the CPI, commodity prices relative to stock prices, and much more.

The chart below shows commodity prices adjusted for the M2 money supply, confirming just how cheap they are relative to history. I should point out that this is essentially a form of inflation adjustment and, in my view, one of the most accurate of all, far more accurate than adjusting prices using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is known for understating inflation.

The Nobel Prize winning economist Milton Friedman famously stated that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” which means that money supply expansion is the very root cause of inflation. That is why adjusting commodity prices for money supply growth is a valid way to adjust them for inflation.

Back to just how cheap commodity prices are according to practically every yardstick, I don’t expect this anomalous situation to last much longer. I expect commodity prices to rise dramatically in both nominal and real terms, especially after the U.S. stock market bubble bursts and tremendous amounts of capital flow out of stocks and into hard assets. This is essentially what happened during the commodities supercycles of the 1970s and 2000s, but I expect it to occur on a much greater scale this time because of how enormous the current stock market bubble has become.

Comparing commodity prices with the S&P 500, the main benchmark for the U.S. stock market, shows that commodities are at rock-bottom valuations and are even cheaper relative to stocks than they were in the late 1990s, just before the commodities supercycle of the 2000s began:

Now I want to delve into greater detail about the U.S. stock market bubble that has developed since 2009, fueled by trillions of dollars in monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve through quantitative easing (QE) and ultra-low interest rates.

The chart below from Bloomberg is a composite of not just one, but eight different stock market valuation metrics, which, when combined, all tell the same story: the U.S. stock market is currently more overvalued than it was in 1929 and during the late 1990s dot-com bubble.

These metrics include the trailing price-to-earnings ratio, forward price-to-earnings ratio, cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, price-to-book ratio, price-to-sales ratio, enterprise multiple (EV/EBITDA), Q ratio, and Buffett Indicator (market capitalization-to-GDP ratio).

While there are plenty of bullish pundits arguing that “This Time Is Different!” as they always do during a bubble, I am confidently taking the opposite side of that bet. I fully expect one of the worst bear markets in history, and I do not see the market truly recovering for at least several decades due to the extreme overhang of debt, speculative excesses, and malinvestment that will need to be cleared out.

As I explained earlier, the stock market bubble has acted as a relief valve for the inflationary pressures created by the explosion in the money supply, which is why the inflation we have actually experienced, though certainly bad, has not been nearly as severe as the growth in the money supply would imply.

When the stock market bubble bursts, however, I expect a significant portion of the enormous amount of new money created over the past few decades that found its way into stocks to flow out of the stock market and into hard assets, sending their prices soaring and making even the inflation and commodities boom of the 1970s look tame by comparison.

At that point, the effects of the massive expansion in the money supply will increasingly find their way into consumer prices, including food prices, causing them to catch up in a very big way. For that reason, I believe investing in the coming agricultural commodities boom is an advantageous way to hedge against the inflationary scenario I see ahead.

One of the primary catalysts that will kick off the commodities supercycle of the next decade, including the coming boom in agricultural commodities, will be a breakdown in the U.S. Dollar Index from its two-decade-old rising channel, which will mark the beginning of the next secular bear market in the dollar.

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At 10 a.m. Eastern time, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh didn’t pull any punches, basically coming right out and saying, “The Fed’s predominant focus right now should be on prices.” He also pushed back against the notion that recent softer readings in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and Consumer Price Index (CPI) signal a structural shift in inflationary pressures.

Warsh further stated that recent data does not show that underlying inflation trends have “meaningfully improved,” warning that if inflation does not move toward the Fed’s 2% goal “clearly and at sufficient speed,” the Fed still has “work to do.”

What was particularly notable and raised eyebrows was how Warsh began his speech (watch it here) with a punny story about hiking in the picturesque Jackson Hole, Wyoming area, ending one sentence with the word “hike” before beginning his next thought with “interest rates.”

There is good reason to believe this was intentional and designed to trigger trading algorithms, which scan headlines and the contents of speeches by government and central bank officials, into repricing expectations for future rate hikes and, in turn, pushing down inflation-sensitive assets such as commodities.

Immediately during Warsh’s speech, the odds of a 2026 rate hike surged from 56% to 66%, where they currently stand according to the betting market Polymarket.

(As an aside, I realize there are other tools and services for estimating rate hike probabilities, including FedWatch, but I prefer to show the Polymarket odds because it is much more user-friendly and shows how the odds evolve over time in a far more intuitive way.)

Warsh’s surprisingly hawkish tone caught the markets off guard and triggered a sharp selloff across many risk assets, commodities, and foreign currencies, with the U.S. dollar emerging as the key beneficiary. The reason is that higher interest rates tend to attract more foreign capital into the United States, pushing the dollar higher.

A stronger dollar, in turn, puts downward pressure on commodities because they are globally priced in dollars, making them more expensive for buyers outside the United States. In addition, higher interest rates tend to put downward pressure on precious metals, at least in the short term, because they are non-yielding assets.

The chart below clearly shows the inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar and precious metals on Friday, as the dollar spiked while the Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF) fell 3.9%. I used this trust for this example because it is a proxy for precious metals prices.

Taking a broader view over the past year, the U.S. Dollar Index had fallen sharply since late July, providing a key tailwind for precious metals and commodity prices, as I expected in my July 29 analysis. The main reasons for this decline were the weakening U.S. labor market, the pause in kinetic action against Iran, and the U.S. Treasury’s surprise bond-buying announcement.

So right now, what is particularly confusing and frustrating is that the dollar, and as a result commodities and precious metals, are being ping-ponged between the U.S. Treasury, which has contributed to the weakening of the dollar, and the Federal Reserve, which pushed the dollar sharply higher on Friday.

If your head is spinning, don’t worry, you are not alone. I put the blame for this squarely on the U.S. government as well as the Fed, which is a quasi-governmental institution. My takeaway from all of this, as a longtime libertarian, is that there is far too much government involvement and intervention in the financial markets and economy, creating countless false signals and whipsaws in the process.

My prescription, again as someone who believes in limited government, is for the government to take a much smaller role than it currently does. Government intervention is increasingly overshadowing the real economy itself and is practically becoming the only game in town, with armies of economists and financial professionals sitting on the edge of their seats and parsing every word from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, not to mention President Trump, whose every statement and Truth Social post about Iran can cause markets to surge or plunge.

It shouldn’t be this way, but we have a heavily debt-laden economy that has become completely addicted to both monetary and fiscal stimulus since the 2008 financial and economic crisis (all thanks to awful Fed and government policies in the first place), which never truly ended but was instead papered over and propped up by government support.

Incidentally, these are all reasons why I am so bullish on precious metals and commodities in the long run, but these same factors also create tremendous volatility and false signals in the short term. Again, I put the blame for that squarely on the government.

On a more tactical note, the U.S. Dollar Index is still trading within its range of the past year, the broadening pattern shown below, with much of the movement within that range simply being random chop until it decisively breaks out one way or the other.

My bias is for an eventual breakdown because of how overvalued the dollar is and how heavily indebted the U.S. government has become. Friday’s dollar strengthening did not provide any meaningful signal aside from erasing some of the decline of the past month.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex.

Over the past month, gold rebounded strongly from its key $3,900 to $4,100 support zone, which was formed by the major lows of October and November 2025, as well as during the sharp but brief selloff in March 2026.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

Throughout August, gold also managed to chew through the $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone, which formed over a nine-month period from the key highs and lows between October and June. Gold then broke out completely above that resistance zone last week, until the Fed hammered it back down on Friday. I have no doubt that the Fed is keeping a close eye on precious metals and commodity prices.

Right now, the key is for gold to stabilize after Friday’s Fed smackdown. The good news is that it is still trading within the $4,300 to $4,600 zone (which can be viewed as both resistance and support depending where gold is trading), and I would like to see it hold that zone as support. That is what I am focusing on for the time being.

As I have been saying in my recent updates, it is critical for all of the precious metals and mining ETFs to clear out the overhead resistance that formed during the correction since January. Until that happens, there are going to be hiccups along the way during the rebound (like we saw on Friday), as above-average amounts of supply come onto the market at each resistance zone when investors who bought near the prior peaks sell upon breaking even.

Once every last resistance zone is cleared, with the most important ones being those formed at the peaks in January and late February, the entire precious metals complex, both metals and miners, will be in blue sky territory and able to stage much more vibrant rallies to fresh highs with far fewer hiccups than during the current rebound process.

The other point to keep in mind is that, as far as the financial markets are concerned, we are still in low-volume, thin summer trading conditions until after Labor Day weekend, which falls on the weekend of September 7.

By some measures, financial market trading volume is at its lowest level since December 2004, so there simply isn’t enough fuel yet for a consistent rally in precious metals. Once summer is officially over and trading volume returns to more normal levels, we should be far better positioned for precious metals to continue the rebound process.

As a reminder, I firmly believe that precious metals and miners are in a long-term bull market that began only in April 2024 and has at least another eight years to run based on historical cycles. I believe the January-to-August correction was merely a healthy pause within that bull market rather than the beginning of a new bear market. Read my recent report, where I explained this thesis in detail.

One cause for optimism in gold is that it has now experienced five consecutive weeks of inflows from global exchange-traded funds (ETFs), amounting to an impressive 116.3 metric tonnes, or $16 billion, according to the latest World Gold Council data as of August 21, though that does not include Friday’s precious metals pullback. This has been the most consistent stretch of ETF buying since the correction began in late January of this year.

Moving on to silver, we can see that it broke down from its short-term consolidation pattern, or bull flag, following Friday’s hawkish Fed meeting in Jackson Hole. This again highlights the importance of fully surpassing the $60 to $70 resistance zone, with $70 in particular having been a critical resistance level over the past year. A solid close above $70 would therefore be a key go-ahead signal.

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The latest precious metals rally began on July 21, and that very day I showed that they were breaking out and that the bottom was likely in (read it here). Few people believed it at the time, however. Pessimism abounded, and I faced considerable vitriol and a wave of unsubscriptions since the start of the year because of my unwavering message that the precious metals correction that began in late January was just a temporary cooling-off period and not at all the end of the long-term bull market that had begun a mere two years earlier.

It feels very good to be winning again and to see my bullish outlook vindicated, while those who doubted precious metals and threw in the towel too early are being left in the dust. I have no doubt they will be kicking themselves over the next decade as this bull market soars to astounding heights. I see gold hitting at least $15,000 an ounce and silver at least $300 to $500 an ounce, with mining stocks rising by an even greater percentage along the way. Read my report to learn more.

During this early-stage rebound in precious metals over the past few weeks, gold and gold miners have been the star performers, while silver and its miners have taken more of a backseat when adjusting for differences in volatility.

This behavior is not surprising, as gold is viewed as a more conservative asset than silver and therefore typically begins to rally first during the early stages of a precious metals rally or bull market. Then, as the bull market heats up and investor sentiment becomes increasingly bullish, the baton is passed to silver, which begins to outperform gold. Platinum group metals typically follow silver as the rally broadens even further.

As of today (Thursday), I am starting to see signs that silver is about to take the lead in this precious metals rebound, and assuming it does, that would be a very positive harbinger for the overall precious metals complex. Because of this, I decided to publish a report examining the fascinating and encouraging signs I am now seeing in silver and silver miners, along with the different ways to capitalize on what I believe is coming next.

To start, let’s look at the daily chart of silver using COMEX silver futures. You’ll notice that during the rebound over the past month, silver has formed a series of consolidation patterns, including the triangle in July, with each subsequent breakout leading to further gains.

This consolidation-and-rally pattern is healthy behavior because it allows silver to digest its gains without becoming overheated too quickly. You can think of it as silver climbing a staircase, pausing periodically before taking the next step higher.

Interestingly, over the past week or so, while gold was getting most of the attention, silver has been trading sideways, and I noticed some investors growing impatient with it for not moving more aggressively. But the fact is that silver has been forming a pattern known as a bull flag, a bullish continuation pattern that typically leads to further gains upon a successful breakout.

What makes this bull flag even more significant is that it is forming just below silver’s key $70 resistance level, which has played a major role over the past year and helps explain exactly why silver paused for breath where it did. What I am watching for now is a decisive breakout from the bull flag on strong volume for confirmation that the next leg higher is underway. Read my tutorial to learn more about the importance of strong volume during breakouts.

Friday marks the Federal Reserve’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which is always a heavily anticipated event, but even more so this year because it will be new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first time there. Practically the entire financial world will be awaiting his speech and any clues about how he plans to tackle the country’s stubborn inflation problem. There is strong potential for the event to serve as a major catalyst that causes silver to break out from its bull flag, though this is just a theory and not a hard prediction.

Silver’s four-hour intraday chart shows this bull flag even more clearly. This is definitely a pattern indicating that something big is brewing, but as always, it needs to be confirmed by a decisive upside breakout on strong volume.

Because the trend leading into this pattern was bullish, the odds favor an upside breakout, as a bull flag is a continuation pattern. However, if it were to break down instead for whatever reason, such as Kevin Warsh taking a much more hawkish tone than anticipated, I would respect that signal rather than fight the trend.

I see the odds of a breakdown as lower than those of an upside breakout, but everything in trading is ultimately a matter of probability. You have to remain aware of all potential outcomes and be prepared to act accordingly.

The next chart, which is the same one I’ve been showing in my regular updates, puts the bull flag that has formed over the past week into the broader context of silver’s key support and resistance zones.

Earlier in this report, I mentioned the significance of silver’s $70 resistance level, and now we can see exactly why it is so important. It represents the upper boundary of the key $60 to $70 resistance zone that formed at the major lows between December and June.

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Since then, commodity prices have surged, with natural resources becoming the hottest area of the stock market and outperforming even AI stocks, led by powerful rallies in precious metals, copper, and related mining stocks. In this report, I will provide an update on my basic materials trade thesis, with a particular focus on non-precious metals mining stocks and ETFs and the opportunities that I believe have the most potential.

In order to better understand this report, I recommend reading my original report from two weeks ago, but I will provide a brief refresher before we get started. To make it simple, commodity prices have basically traded sideways for nearly two decades, at the same time that the U.S. cost of living has soared 55%, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is known for understating inflation. And though I used the U.S. as an example, it’s the same story all around the world, as fiat, or paper, currencies are rapidly losing purchasing power.

Commodities trading sideways for nearly two decades, combined with significant inflation and a massive expansion of the global money supply, has resulted in them being cheaper today in real terms than at any time in modern history. I strongly believe they are going to catch up in a big way in the years ahead, especially once investors wake up to the fact that this is the cheapest asset class out there in a world glutted with overvalued and overinflated financial assets, while the world’s supply of natural resources continues to dwindle every day.

The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), shown below, tracks a broad basket of commodities, including crude oil, gasoline, heating oil/diesel, wheat, soybeans, corn, cocoa, coffee, copper, gold, and silver, to name a few. The index can essentially be thought of as the Dow or S&P 500 of the commodities world, making it a useful benchmark for tracking broad trends in commodity prices.

The last time commodities became nearly as cheap as they are today was during the late 1990s, after which a powerful decade-long commodities bull market, or supercycle, ensued. Commodities surged roughly 600% on average during that period, outperforming most other asset classes, including technology stocks.

However, ever since that supercycle ended in 2008, commodities have largely been dead money as investors once again became enamored with technology investments. This is no coincidence, as commodities and technology compete for capital and investor attention, booming in alternating waves or cycles that typically last a decade or more.

From a tactical perspective, a very important resistance zone between roughly 800 and 900 formed in the GSCI when the commodities supercycle peaked in 2008, and the index has since encountered resistance around that same zone during multiple subsequent peaks, including in 2011, 2022, and most recently in early 2026.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

My bet is that when the GSCI finally breaks decisively through that critical 800 to 900 resistance zone, it will kick off the next commodities supercycle, which will be extremely beneficial for the basic materials and energy sectors, precious metals, base metals such as copper and zinc, agricultural commodities including grains, softs, and livestock, as well as fertilizer, farmland, and other natural resource investments.

Over the next decade, I fully expect commodities, including precious metals, and natural resources stocks to become the world’s best-performing assets, handily trouncing today’s darlings, overvalued and overhyped tech stocks. I expect a repeat of what happened after the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s and gave way to the powerful commodities supercycle that followed.

In addition to a future breakout in the GSCI Commodity Index, the other key clue that the next commodities supercycle has begun will be when the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the exchange rate of the dollar against other world currencies, breaks down from its two-decade-old rising channel pattern, kicking off another powerful bear market in the dollar just like in the 2000s.

The U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency, and commodities around the globe are priced in dollars. When the dollar weakens, commodities become cheaper for buyers outside the United States, allowing them to purchase more and thereby pushing commodity prices higher.

The primary initial trigger of the 2000s commodities supercycle was the bear market in the U.S. dollar at that time. But since 2008, the dollar has been in an uptrend, which was a major reason why commodity prices have been so stagnant. Therefore, it is important to watch for a future breakdown in the U.S. Dollar Index, and if that occurs soon, I fully expect it to launch commodity prices much higher in the decade ahead.

As for why the dollar is likely to enter a secular bear market soon, it is once again significantly overvalued, much as it was in the late 1990s, making a reversion to the mean increasingly likely. Another major factor is the surge in U.S. government debt, which recently surpassed 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II and officially reached $40 trillion last week. At the same time, central banks and investors around the world are rapidly reducing their exposure to U.S. government debt, with gold emerging as a major beneficiary.

So far, I have reviewed the long-term bullish case for commodities, but now I want to turn to the short-term tactical perspective. After a rough first half of the year, non-energy commodities have perked up impressively in August, with precious metals, base metals such as copper, and grains among the top performers, along with mining stocks.

The chart below of the GSCI Non-Energy Commodity Index shows the sharp rebound that has occurred over the past month. I chose this index because, although I am also quite bullish on energy over the long run (click here to read my recent report), the sector is extremely volatile right now due to the U.S.-Iran war and is gyrating wildly with the recurring cycle of escalation and peace talks. As a result, energy prices are not currently a true reflection of the real-world supply and demand situation.

The immediate catalysts for the rebound in non-energy commodities in recent weeks have been the weakening U.S. job market and resulting decline in interest rate expectations, a sharp pullback in the U.S. dollar, the cooling of the AI stock mania, and last week’s surprise announcement from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent of a Treasury bond-buying program aimed at pushing down yields after they spiked following the start of the U.S.-Iran war.

This bond-buying program is being perceived by the market as “QE Lite” and thus likely to result in further debasement of the dollar, prompting investors to wisely seek shelter in commodities, including precious metals.

A tactical look at the GSCI Non-Energy Commodity Index shows that it has rebounded right up to its 610 to 630 resistance zone, formed by the peaks from January through May. A decisive breakout above that zone should kick off a powerful new phase of the commodities bull market that will also be highly beneficial for mining, natural resources, and basic materials stocks.

A little-discussed factor behind the recent rebound in commodities and precious metals is the air coming out of the AI stock mania, which I suspected in my July 19 analysis would be a bullish catalyst, and that now appears to be happening.

To summarize, the AI trade erupted into a full-blown mania this spring, with semiconductor stocks such as Nvidia and Micron becoming the primary focus. I strongly believe the tremendous amount of global capital sucked into this mania diverted both capital and attention away from commodities, exacerbating their correction. But the AI mania is now experiencing a much-deserved correction of its own, while attention and capital are flowing back into commodities, which is a wise move in my view.

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There are a number of factors behind this rally, including the technical breakout I pointed out virtually at the bottom on July 21, as precious metals began rebounding from their correction that started in January. That correction was simply excessive and irrational, especially considering that precious metals are still only in the early stages of a long-term bull market with many more years left to run, as I explained in this report.

Other major catalysts include the decline in the U.S. dollar since late July and, as of this week, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Wednesday announcement that it would ramp up its Treasury bond purchases in an effort to keep yields down following their recent spike.

What further fueled the precious metals and miners rally toward the end of the week was the Treasury market’s reaction to the initial announcement of increased bond buying. Although Treasury yields initially sank on the news on Wednesday, they rallied sharply by the end of the week and nearly erased the entire decline, much to the chagrin of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. In response, Bessent upped the ante by saying that government debt buybacks could be even larger than the originally announced $4 billion per operation.

The reason precious metals and commodities across the board surged following these bond-buying announcements is that the program is being perceived as “QE Lite,” or a form of quantitative easing or QE. Although important details are still pending, many commentators, including Peter Schiff, believe these bond purchases will ultimately be funded by the Fed’s digital printing press (so to speak), resulting in further dollar debasement, which would not surprise me at all.

As I explained following the initial bond-buying announcement on Wednesday, the purpose of the program is to cap or slow the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields, which have climbed to their highest levels in two decades amid higher inflation resulting from the Iran war and the ensuing surge in energy prices.

The recent increase in Treasury yields poses a major threat to the economy and financial markets, as well as to the U.S. federal government, whose national debt officially hit $40 trillion this week. Annual interest payments on that debt have also reached an all-time high of $1.25 trillion, doubling in just five years, and the burden will only grow worse if Treasury yields remain at these levels or climb even higher.

Unfortunately, I only foresee bond yields continuing to surge across the board, including government and corporate yields in the United States and around the world, due to unsustainable debt burdens and the high rates of inflation I expect over the next decade, which the rise in precious metals and commodities is already heralding.

I also foresee governments ultimately resorting to even more aggressive bond-buying programs, such as yield curve control (YCC), using outright debt monetization or money creation. This will further exacerbate fiat currency debasement and inflation, and ironically lead to even higher interest rates over the long run, all of which will prove explosively bullish for hard assets, including precious metals.

The Treasury’s surprise bond-buying announcements have further pressured the U.S. Dollar Index, extending the downtrend that began in late July amid a halt in U.S. kinetic action against Iran, a series of weak U.S. jobs reports, and the resulting decline in Fed rate hike expectations.

The decline in the U.S. Dollar Index over the past month has been a major bullish catalyst for precious metals and commodities, helping to fuel their powerful rally from the dark days of July, just as I expected in my July 29 analysis.

After failing twice to break out of the broadening pattern that has formed over the past year, I am now watching to see whether the Dollar Index targets the lower end of that pattern at roughly 94 to 95 in the coming months. If it does, that would provide an even stronger boost for precious metals and should send them surging even higher.

Major potential catalysts for the dollar and precious metals in the coming week include the July U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Wednesday morning and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first speech at the annual Jackson Hole conference on Friday. Investors will be closely watching Warsh for greater clarity on how he believes the U.S. central bank should respond to stubbornly high inflation.

The PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, with the annual headline reading expected to come in at 3.6% and core PCE at 3.3%. Any significant deviation from those expectations should cause a big move across the financial markets, with a cooler-than-expected reading being bullish for risk assets and precious metals (and bearish for the dollar) and a hotter-than-expected reading bearish for risk assets and precious metals (and bullish for the dollar).

Over the longer run, the Fed’s inflation target is 2%, and we are clearly running well above that level, with the U.S.-Iran war and resulting surge in energy costs and inflation pushing it in the opposite direction from where the Fed wants it to go.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex.

Gold’s nearly $700-per-ounce, or 16%, surge over the past month began precisely off the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone that I had been highlighting throughout my updates in recent months. This key support zone was formed by the major lows of October and November 2025, as well as during the sharp but brief selloff in March 2026.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

What is particularly remarkable is that during the dark days of June and July, I received emails from naysayers claiming that precious metals are somehow unlike other assets and that support and resistance zones are therefore virtually useless for analyzing them. Yet you have just witnessed the efficacy of this methodology play out in real time, right before your eyes.

Also, I must note that just because precious metals may break below a support zone, as occurred in June, or above a resistance zone doesn’t mean that the zone or the overall methodology is not valid. Breakouts and breakdowns are an integral part of the methodology, hence why I focus so much on monitoring whether the asset respects the zone or breaks through it, putting the next support or resistance zone into play.

Some further excellent news is that on Friday, gold finally surpassed the next hurdle I had been monitoring: the $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone, which formed over a nine-month period from the key highs and lows between October and June. As a result of this breakout, that former resistance zone has now become a support zone once again.

Gold’s recent breakout above the downtrend line that formed from January to July, along with its breakout above the $4,300 to $4,600 zone, now greatly increases the odds that the correction that began earlier this year is officially behind us and that a strong recovery rally should continue through the end of the year and beyond.

The strong volume on key bullish days over the past month adds significant confirmation to this rally, as it shows that institutions, or the “smart money,” are behind the move, as I explained in this tutorial.

Gold’s next key hurdles to surpass are the $4,800 to $5,000 resistance zone, formed by the key highs and lows from February through May, followed by the final and most important resistance zone at $5,400 to $5,600, formed by the peaks in January and February before the correction began.

When an asset recovers from a correction, as gold is currently in the process of doing, each overhead resistance zone represents an important hurdle that must be surpassed. These zones represent areas where above-average amounts of supply are likely to come onto the market, as investors who bought near those prior peaks may sell once the price returns to their entry point, allowing them to break even.

For this reason, I tend to be more cautious and less gung-ho about buying aggressively after a correction (when trading as opposed to stacking bullion), with the odds of a successful and smoother rally becoming much higher once an asset breaks out into blue-sky territory with no major resistance overhead. This flies in the face of the conventional “buy low and sell high” wisdom, instead favoring the approach of “buy high and sell higher.”

With that in mind, I am looking forward to the day when gold clears its final and most important resistance zone at $5,400 to $5,600—and it will happen! Once that occurs, gold will be back in blue-sky territory with maximum odds of rallying much higher, and I expect the price action to become even smoother than during the current recovery process, when each successive resistance zone must first be challenged and overcome.

As a reminder, I firmly believe that precious metals and miners are in a long-term bull market that began only in April 2024 and has at least another eight years to run based on historical cycles. I believe the January-to-August correction was merely a healthy pause within that bull market rather than the beginning of a new bear market. Read my recent report, where I explained this thesis in detail.

Further fueling gold’s rally and confirming its legitimacy is the strong and steady increase in global gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows in recent weeks, totaling 69.5 metric tonnes of gold worth $9.6 billion and marking the most consistent inflows since the correction began:

Silver also continues its roughly $15-per-ounce, or 27%, rally, which launched precisely off the $45 to $55 support zone I have been highlighting since June 24. This support zone was established by the highs and lows in October and November 2025. Once again, this confirms the efficacy of support and resistance zones, contrary to what the naysayers were claiming during the cynical days of early summer.

Silver’s breakout above the downtrend line that began in late January, combined with heavy volume on key up days, provides further bullish confirmation that the correction is almost certainly behind us and that the recovery rally should continue through the second half of 2026 and beyond.

I am still waiting for silver to close decisively above the $60 to $70 resistance zone, formed by the key lows between December and June, as that would provide another strong bullish signal.

Assuming silver surpasses the $60 to $70 resistance zone, which may happen this coming week, the next major hurdle will be the $90 to $100 resistance zone, formed by the peaks from February through May, followed by the final and most important resistance zone at $110 to $120, formed at the late-January peak.

Once the January peak is surpassed, silver will enter blue-sky territory with no major resistance overhead, at which point a vibrant and much smoother rally should ensue. Until then, the goal is to surpass each successive hurdle while remaining aware of potential hiccups along the way at key resistance zones, where additional supply is likely to come onto the market as investors who bought near prior peaks sell upon breaking even.

As a reminder, my position is that silver is still in the very early stages of a long-term bull market with many more years left to run, and that the correction from January to early August was not at all the end of that bull market, but simply a pause after two very strong bullish years. I explained this thesis in detail in my recent silver report.

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While the day started out normally, precious metals and miners exploded higher beginning at 8:30 a.m. EST after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the Treasury would double its liquidity-support buybacks of 10- to 30-year securities from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. With nine operations scheduled this quarter, that represents a minimum increase of $18 billion per quarter, or $72 billion annually, bringing total long-end buybacks to at least $144 billion per year.

While I will get further into the implications of this announcement, I first want to explain why the Treasury decided to increase its bond purchases in the first place: the recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields to their highest levels in two decades, driven by higher inflation resulting from the Iran war and ensuing surge in energy prices.

The recent increase in Treasury yields poses a major threat to the economy and financial markets, as well as to the U.S. federal government, whose national debt officially hit $40 trillion today. Annual interest payments on that debt have also reached an all-time high of $1.25 trillion, doubling in just five years, and the burden will only grow worse if Treasury yields remain at these levels or climb even higher (which I believe is inevitable).

The immediate effect of the Treasury’s announcement was to push the 30-year Treasury yield down from roughly 5.3% to 5.19%, reversing the increase of the past week. However, yields remain at elevated levels, and it remains to be seen whether this initiative can successfully stave off further increases, let alone reverse the sharp rise of the past few months.

Since this morning’s announcement, there has been considerable speculation and debate over whether this expanded program should be considered a form of quantitative easing (QE), or what some have nicknamed “stealth QE” or “QE Lite,” involving the monetization of government debt (which debases the dollar), or whether the Treasury is merely attempting to change the maturity mix of government debt held by the public, rather than creating new money as the Federal Reserve does under traditional QE.

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The erratic, on-again, off-again nature of peace deal discussions in recent months has caused wild gyrations in energy prices, making the sector virtually impossible to read. However, it is now becoming increasingly apparent that there will be no peace deal anytime soon, and I am seeing some very interesting setups in the energy sector, so I decided to write this report to share them with you.

That said, I must emphasize the extreme risk associated with this sector right now. These opportunities are highly speculative and headline-driven and are not necessarily straightforward buy-and-hold investments. However, those who are more comfortable taking risks, like myself, may find these ideas interesting, while those who are not can still learn from the analysis in this report.

To start, I first want to show you the long-term chart of the GSCI Commodity Index, which can be thought of as the Dow or S&P 500 of commodity prices, over the past several decades. As the chart below shows, commodity prices have essentially treaded water since their 2008 peak, even as a tremendous amount of inflation has occurred during that time.

As a result, real, or inflation-adjusted, commodity prices have declined significantly and are now arguably the cheapest asset class in existence. I expect them to soon enter another powerful bull market, as I explained in detail in this report.

From a technical perspective, there is a clear resistance zone from 800 to 900 in the GSCI Commodity Index, formed by the major peaks in 2008, 2011, 2022, and early 2026. When the index finally breaks decisively above that resistance zone, which I believe will happen quite soon, I expect it to kick off another powerful commodities supercycle like those of the 1970s and 2000s.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial on the topic (Part 1 and Part 2).

I see this supercycle lasting at least a decade, as these cycles typically do, and driving prices dramatically higher across practically every commodity, including precious metals, industrial metals, energy, and agricultural commodities, as well as natural resources stocks. The result will be tremendous inflation that will be highly punishing to stocks and bonds.

While I’m bullish on commodities and natural resources across the board, this report focuses specifically on energy, so I next want to examine the technical setup in crude oil, starting with the U.S. benchmark, WTI, or light sweet crude oil. I will discuss the fundamentals shortly.

After the initial U.S.-Iran war-related surge in March that sent crude oil to nearly $120 per barrel, prices have since plunged from those highs due to optimism about, and promises from the U.S. government of, an imminent peace deal, heavy releases of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and other countries’ equivalent reserves, likely government efforts to suppress prices (as I’ll discuss in a bit), and demand destruction.

From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil has been forming a tightening triangle pattern over the past six months. These patterns often precede sharp moves once a breakout occurs and can be thought of as a compressed spring that ultimately releases with tremendous energy.

The scenario I am watching for is a decisive upside breakout from WTI crude oil’s triangle, potentially in conjunction with a serious negative turn in the Iran war, such as the United States and/or Israel dramatically escalating kinetic attacks against Iran or even launching a ground invasion, heaven forbid. Alternatively, the catalyst could simply be global oil inventories reaching dangerously low levels and crude oil subsequently repricing much higher.

Assuming a breakout from the triangle occurs, I would look for additional confirmation in the form of a breakout above the $92 to $97 resistance zone, followed ultimately by the $112 to $120 resistance zone formed by the major peaks in March and April. Breakouts above horizontal resistance zones are generally much more reliable than breakouts above diagonal resistance lines, such as the upper boundary of the triangle.

There are several different ways to play this potential scenario, assuming it occurs. The most straightforward would be through either full-size 1,000-barrel NYMEX crude oil futures or the smaller 100-barrel NYMEX crude oil futures. For those who do not trade futures or are not comfortable doing so, there is also the United States Oil Fund (USO), an oil-tracking ETF that can be purchased through any standard brokerage account, as well as the United States Gasoline Fund (UGA), though UGA is much more thinly traded and volatile than USO.

Again, I must emphasize that trading oil in any form right now is extremely speculative and high-risk, with prices highly sensitive to both bullish and bearish headlines, including developments that can occur overnight or over the weekend when you may be unable to trade or cut your losses. This is not for beginners, mom-and-pop investors, or anyone uncomfortable with substantial risk and volatility. I am certainly not advocating that anyone trade this setup, but simply sharing ideas for those who are more experienced with trading and understand the risks involved.

The way I would approach this oil triangle breakout setup is by scaling into my intended position in stages: first upon a high-volume breakout (learn more) above the triangle pattern, then adding to the position upon a breakout above the $92 to $97 resistance zone, and finally scaling in further upon a breakout above the $112 to $120 resistance zone. I would also use a stop-loss order placed a few percent below my initial entry price.

You can track WTI crude oil prices on Finviz.com.

Next, let’s look at the setup in Brent crude oil, which is the global oil benchmark. Like WTI crude oil, Brent has also been forming a tightening triangle pattern over the past six months as it compresses ahead of a potentially powerful breakout.

My playbook for Brent crude oil is similar to that for WTI: I’m looking for an initial breakout from the triangle pattern, followed by breakouts above the $98 to $102 resistance zone and then the $116 to $120 resistance zone formed by the major peaks from March through May. Each successive breakout would provide an opportunity to scale further into the position.

As far as how to play this potential breakout, Brent-related financial products are less common and generally more thinly traded in the United States, so it is easier to simply use the WTI crude oil futures or USO ETF I mentioned previously. That said, there are also ICE-traded Brent crude oil futures, as well as the United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO) ETF, which can be purchased through any standard brokerage account.

You can track Brent crude oil prices on Finviz.com.

Regarding potential catalysts that could trigger another surge in oil prices, the most obvious is the recent breakdown in peace talks between the United States and Iran, with the 60-day MoU (Memorandum of Understanding) expiring today, Monday, August 17.

Both the Trump administration and Iranian leadership remain unwilling to reengage in peace talks, while Iran has become increasingly defiant and is now operating under a new doctrine of not merely remaining on the defensive, but increasingly going on the offensive against U.S. interests and proxies around the world.

Several recent Iranian statements reposted by The Hormuz Letter on X encapsulate the country’s current sentiment and stance:

Given this sharp turn toward defiance and Iran’s rejection of peace efforts, I and other observers are wondering whether there will be another phase of kinetic attacks by the United States and/or Israel, or even a ground invasion, in addition to the unprecedented “economic isolation” plan that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has promised to announce sometime this week. There is even talk of potentially using nuclear weapons against Iran, which is terrifying and surreal if true.

Such an escalation, if it were to occur, would certainly serve as a catalyst for oil to resume its surge. Of course, this remains in the realm of speculation and geopolitical gambling, which is not something I typically like to engage in, as my bullish case for oil is based on the coming commodities supercycle. Nevertheless, we also have to play the hand we are dealt.

Even barring an escalation in the Iran conflict, another major potential bullish catalyst is that global oil inventories are reaching dangerously low levels, including the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which just fell below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1982, with further drawdowns threatening to damage its underground salt caverns.

The release of these reserves since the war began is a major reason why oil prices are not even higher than they are today, but there is a limit to how much further they can be drawn down. The eventual need to rebuild these reserves should provide a major tailwind for oil prices in the years ahead.

Another important factor that held global oil prices down in the spring was China slashing its oil imports to a decade low while drawing from its substantial stockpile of roughly 1.397 billion barrels. However, a recent report showed that China’s oil imports rebounded a significant 22% in July from the previous month, and if that trend continues, it should provide another source of upward pressure on oil prices.

There is also credible reason to believe that oil prices have been suppressed in recent months through massive selling of naked “paper” oil in the futures market, by the U.S. government and possibly Japan. Much of this selling occurs very early in the morning, when trading is thinnest and large orders have the greatest potential to push prices lower.

Such disruptive trading is difficult to rationalize as normal hedging or trading activity, since market participants typically seek the most liquid trading hours precisely to minimize their impact on price.

Chris Martenson has been pounding the table about this likely downward manipulation of oil prices, and I’m inclined to agree with him, especially given the many parallels I see with the suppression of precious metals prices:

Of course, I want to emphasize that while commodity price manipulation can be effective in the short term, it ultimately cannot overpower the forces of economics and supply and demand. Suppressing oil prices is like holding a basketball underwater: you can keep it submerged for a while, but eventually it will break free and surge toward its natural level. That moment may come with a decisive breakout from the oil triangle patterns I showed earlier.

On that note, I now want to show several long-term charts of crude oil, including various forms of inflation adjustment, to demonstrate that while oil prices may appear relatively high in nominal terms, they are still quite low in real terms and therefore have substantial room to move higher if they are to revisit their historical inflation-adjusted peaks.

The chart below shows the nominal price of WTI crude oil going back to 1983. As you can see, oil peaked at $147.27 per barrel in 2008 and reached as high as $130.50 as recently as 2022, both far above its current price of $84.46, especially considering how much inflation has occurred over the past couple of decades.

From a technical perspective, there is a major resistance zone between $130 and $150, formed by the 2008 and 2022 peaks. If and when oil decisively breaks above that zone, prices of $200 per barrel and beyond are certainly possible over the course of the energy supercycle ahead. At a minimum, it is certainly not inconceivable for oil to surge toward that resistance zone in the near future if the U.S.-Iran war does not de-escalate soon.

While the previous chart showed nominal oil prices, the chart below adjusts the price of oil for the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). It shows that the average real price of oil over the past four decades was roughly $77 in 2026 dollars, while the 2008 peak reached $223 and the 2022 peak reached $151.

That puts today’s price of just $84.35 into perspective, as it is only slightly above the long-term inflation-adjusted average and shows just how much room oil has to surge in the event of a serious escalation in the war and/or during the energy supercycle ahead.

Adjusting prices for inflation using the CPI is standard practice in the world of economics and finance, but there is good reason to believe that the CPI understates the true rate of inflation. For that reason, I prefer to adjust prices using the U.S. M2 money supply, which I find to be a more accurate way of accounting for monetary inflation.

The long-term chart of crude oil prices adjusted by the M2 money supply, and indexed to 100 for easier interpretation, shows an average of 42 since 1983, a peak of 129 in 2008, and a peak of 41 in 2022, compared with a reading of just 25 today. This implies that crude oil is actually trading well below its long-term average on an M2-adjusted basis and has substantial room to run if it is to revisit its historic peaks.

I am also fond of comparing commodity and precious metals prices to the S&P 500, which makes sense because commodities and stocks have historically acted as counterbalances to one another. When one is in a secular, or long-term, bull market, the other is typically in a secular bear market or period of stagnation, and vice versa, as capital rotates between the two in recurring cycles that typically last at least a decade, as I explained in this recent report.

The WTI crude oil-to-S&P 500 ratio, indexed to 100, is currently near record lows at just 5.61, compared with 107 at its 1984 peak, 71 at its 1990 Gulf War peak, 62 at its 2008 peak, and 17 at its 2022 peak. This extremely low price of crude oil relative to U.S. stocks reflects both the undervaluation of crude oil and the biggest stock market bubble in history, as I explained in my report linked above.

I firmly believe that the bursting of that stock market bubble will unleash tremendous amounts of capital that will flow into oil, precious metals, and other commodities, providing a huge source of fuel for the supercycle ahead.

Next, let’s take a look at the long-term chart of energy stocks, as represented by the popular State Street Energy Sector ETF (XLE). A few months ago, XLE broke above the key $50 resistance level established by the major highs in 2014 and 2024.

I view this breakout as a sign that a new long-term bull market in the energy sector has begun, with much greater gains still ahead. I expect this run to ultimately match or even exceed the powerful energy bull market from 2002 to 2008.

The charting platform TrendSpider published a fascinating chart comparing XLE’s recent breakout with gold’s breakout in early 2024, implying that energy stocks may be following a similar trajectory and presenting another major opportunity:

XLE is heavily weighted toward large integrated oil companies, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron together accounting for roughly 35% of its holdings. These companies have been minting money amid the Iran war-driven surge in oil prices, with the five largest international oil companies generating approximately $70 billion in free cash flow in Q2 2026, the highest amount on record according to Bloomberg.

Given this extraordinary profitability, and the potential for even greater profits if oil embarks on another leg higher, it is not hard to see why XLE could have much further to run.

Zooming in on the daily chart of XLE, there was an initial surge from December through March, followed by a period of consolidation that formed a wedge pattern. XLE broke out of that wedge last week, providing the first bullish signal, but the next and more important signal will come if it decisively closes above the $62 to $63.50 resistance zone formed by the peaks in March and May.

As a reminder, breakouts above horizontal resistance zones and levels are generally more reliable and significant than breakouts above diagonal resistance levels, such as the upper boundary of the wedge. A decisive breakout above the $62 to $63.50 resistance zone would therefore provide another potential entry opportunity for those interested.

That said, XLE is a bit extended in the short term, so I would not jump in just yet. I would rather see a brief period of consolidation first, followed by a decisive breakout above the $62 to $63.50 resistance zone.

While XLE is largely focused on large integrated oil companies, oil and gas exploration companies often rise even more during energy bull markets, making them a higher-“torque,” or higher-beta, way to bet on an energy boom, albeit with greater volatility and risk.

The long-term chart of the State Street Oil & Gas Exploration ETF (XOP) shows what appears to be a massive head-and-shoulders bottom pattern that has been forming for roughly a decade, with a key resistance zone between $165 and $180.

XOP is now beginning to break above that resistance zone, and assuming it can successfully close above it, I believe there is a very good chance that a powerful bull market in oil and gas exploration companies lies ahead in the coming years. I’ll discuss the individual stocks in this arena that I like most shortly.

A look at the daily chart of XOP shows that it is now beginning to push into another shorter-term resistance zone between $180 and $190, formed by the peaks since March.

If XOP can decisively break above that zone, I would expect another powerful surge like the one at the start of the year, likely setting the stage for an even more extensive bull market over the next decade or so.

Now I want to discuss the different industry groups within the overall energy sector and which ones have the greatest potential during an energy supercycle. To start, there are the massive integrated energy companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron, which operate across the entire energy value chain, including oil and gas exploration, production, refining, and retailing.

While these companies are stable and highly profitable, their enormous size and diversification, with Exxon Mobil sporting a market capitalization of roughly $664 billion, can limit their upside during an energy supercycle compared with smaller, more nimble, and more leveraged companies involved in exploration and production, drilling, oilfield services, and energy machinery and equipment.

Next, there are midstream companies that specialize in the processing, storage, transportation, and marketing of petroleum products. While these companies are often profitable and stable, they typically do not rise nearly as much as exploration and production, drilling, and oilfield services companies during an energy supercycle.

That is because their profits are driven more by the volume of petroleum products they process and transport than by direct exposure to rising oil and gas prices. For that reason, I would generally avoid these companies when specifically trying to position for maximum upside during an energy supercycle.

Next, there are oil refining companies such as Valero, Marathon Petroleum, Phillips 66, and HF Sinclair. While refiners are typically not the strongest performers during an energy supercycle, in recent months they have actually been among the best-performing stocks not only within the energy sector, but across the broader stock market.

This exceptional performance has been driven by record profitability resulting from the extremely high prices of refined products such as gasoline and diesel/heating oil relative to crude oil, largely due to disruptions related to the Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars.

The VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) specifically tracks oil refining stocks, and the chart below shows their stellar performance since the start of the year. However, I would avoid jumping in right now because the industry group is quite extended, meaning there is not a particularly low-risk entry opportunity at the moment.

I am also personally less interested in refiners as a way to play the long-term energy supercycle because, aside from the extraordinary conditions created by the current war, they have historically offered less upside than the more highly leveraged energy industry groups I have discussed.

Next, we get to the oil services industry group, which provides specialized engineering, drilling, testing, maintenance, and other critical services to oil and gas producers. This is where some of the most explosive performers can be found during energy bull markets, but typically only after the bull market heats up enough to trigger a major CAPEX boom among oil and gas producers.

In the earlier stages, producers tend to remain focused on fiscal discipline, paying dividends, and buying back stock rather than aggressively expanding capital spending, which is largely where we are today.

The VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) is an excellent and efficient way to gain exposure to this industry group, with holdings that include major oilfield services companies such as Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, and Halliburton, as well as drilling firms like Transocean, Valaris, and Nabors Industries.

From a technical perspective, OIH has lagged some of the other energy industry groups due to limited CAPEX spending so far, though I expect that to change quickly upon another surge in oil prices and certainly as the energy supercycle gets further underway.

Right now, I am keeping a close eye on the $440 to $460 resistance zone. A decisive breakout above that zone, ideally following a period of sideways consolidation just beneath it, would provide an excellent opportunity to go long OIH as well as the individual stocks it holds.

Now I want to share the individual energy stocks within each major industry group that I believe have the greatest potential during an energy supercycle, excluding slower-moving refiners and midstream companies.

The methodology I used is based on Investor’s Business Daily’s (IBD) CANSLIM approach, which I greatly respect, though I have modified it somewhat because CANSLIM is ideally suited for long-term compounding growth stocks, whereas natural resources stocks are cyclical in terms of their earnings and valuation metrics.

To find these stocks, I used IBD’s MarketSurge platform to screen for U.S.-traded oil and gas stocks with the highest relative strength, earnings growth rates, and profit margins.

Relative strength is one of the main components of the CANSLIM approach and measures a stock’s price performance relative to the rest of the market. It is expressed as a rating from 1 to 99, so a relative strength (RS) rating of 96 means that the stock has outperformed 96% of all other stocks, placing it in the top 4% for relative strength. The biggest stock market winners in history have typically sported Relative Strength Ratings of 85 or higher.

The other key CANSLIM metric is earnings per share (EPS) growth, which is also expressed as a rating from 1 to 99. The greatest stock market winners throughout history have typically sported high EPS ratings, often even before embarking on their most powerful bull runs. The idea is not to speculate on potential future earnings growth that may or may not materialize, or on exciting business prospects that remain far off in the future, but rather to focus on stocks that are already demonstrating superior earnings performance and strong underlying economics.

So, without further ado, here is my list of the strongest oil and gas companies that I believe have the greatest potential in the coming energy supercycle:

1. Cenovus Energy (CVE)

Cenovus Energy is an integrated oil company headquartered in Calgary, Canada, that trades on the New York Stock Exchange and has a market capitalization of approximately $59 billion. Together with its subsidiaries, Cenovus develops, produces, refines, transports, and markets crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum products, with operations primarily in Canada, the United States, and China.

Cenovus is currently the highest-rated integrated oil company according to Investor’s Business Daily, with a solid relative strength rating of 87 and an even more impressive earnings per share (EPS) rating of 92. Together with its other metrics, this gives Cenovus an excellent composite rating of 95, which combines factors including relative strength, earnings and sales growth, profit margins, and institutional accumulation.

From a technical perspective, Cenovus has a key resistance zone between $30 and $32. As of Monday, the stock began pushing above that zone but has not yet closed decisively enough above it to qualify as a successful breakout. That could occur over the next few days, and I would prefer to see the breakout accompanied by heavy volume for even greater confirmation (learn more).

(Note that while I said earlier that very large integrated oil companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron are generally not the strongest performers for participating in an energy supercycle, I am much more amenable to smaller, high-quality integrated oil companies like Cenovus and Equinor, which I will discuss next.)

2. Equinor (EQNR)

Equinor, formerly known as Statoil ASA, is a Norwegian integrated oil and gas company that trades on the New York Stock Exchange and has a market capitalization of approximately $99 billion.

Equinor is currently the second-highest-rated integrated oil company according to Investor’s Business Daily, with a respectable relative strength rating of 85 and an earnings per share (EPS) rating of 85. Together with its other metrics, this gives Equinor an impressive composite rating of 96.

From a technical perspective, Equinor is now trading just below its $42 to $44 resistance zone, formed by the major peaks of the past six months. A decisive breakout above that zone on strong volume would likely kick off another powerful rally phase similar to the one at the start of the year.

3. EOG Resources (EOG)

EOG Resources is a major oil and gas exploration and production company headquartered in Houston, Texas, that trades on the New York Stock Exchange and has a market capitalization of approximately $77 billion.

EOG Resources has consistently ranked among the highest-rated oil and gas exploration companies in recent weeks according to Investor’s Business Daily, with a relative strength rating of 73 and an earnings per share (EPS) rating of 81. Together with its other metrics, this gives EOG Resources a strong composite rating of 94.

Note that it is still relatively early in the oil and gas exploration cycle, so the metrics for these stocks are somewhat weaker than those of the integrated oil companies. However, I expect that to change, with many more opportunities emerging in this industry group as the energy supercycle heats up.

From a technical perspective, EOG Resources has been consolidating since March in a triangle/wedge pattern just below the $148 to $152 resistance zone formed by the major peaks during that period. A decisive, high-volume breakout above that resistance zone would likely kick off another powerful surge similar to the one at the start of the year. I expect EOG Resources to be one of the strongest performers in the energy supercycle ahead, just as it was during the powerful energy supercycle of the 2000s.

4. Transocean (RIG)

Transocean is a Switzerland-based offshore drilling company that trades on the New York Stock Exchange and has a market capitalization of approximately $6.5 billion. Transocean is slated to merge with another prominent offshore driller, Valaris, by the end of the year, potentially creating an offshore drilling powerhouse. However, there is still an element of regulatory risk if the merger is not approved, so I remain somewhat cautious until the deal is finalized.

Interestingly, Transocean and Valaris are currently the two highest-rated oil and gas drilling companies according to Investor’s Business Daily. Transocean has a relative strength rating of 54 and an earnings per share (EPS) rating of 72, which, together with its other metrics, gives the company a composite rating of 60.

Note that, as with exploration companies and oilfield services, the oil drilling industry group is still very early in its cycle, so the metrics for these stocks are not particularly impressive just yet. However, I expect that to change significantly as the energy supercycle heats up.

From a technical perspective, Transocean has a key resistance zone between $7.00 and $7.70. The ideal entry setup I would like to see is a rally back toward that zone, followed by a period of consolidation and rising relative strength, and then a decisive, high-volume breakout. If that occurs, I expect Transocean to be one of the strongest performers of the energy supercycle once CAPEX spending picks up, just as it was during the 2000s cycle.

5. CF Industries (CF)

CF Industries is a major manufacturer and distributor of agricultural fertilizers headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois. The company trades on the New York Stock Exchange and has a market capitalization of approximately $18 billion.

While CF Industries is not technically part of the energy sector, but rather the basic materials sector and agricultural chemicals industry group, it can be considered energy-adjacent because fertilizer prices, and consequently fertilizer company stock prices, are highly correlated with energy and grain prices. CF Industries is therefore well positioned to benefit from the broader commodities supercycle that I expect over the decade ahead. It was also one of the most stellar performers during the 2000s commodities supercycle, when its stock soared roughly 15-fold.

Fertilizer prices have surged due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, along with the resulting rise in grain prices, making the risk of a global food crisis increasingly serious. As morbid as it sounds, and I certainly hope this scenario does not occur, CF Industries should serve as a strong hedge against that risk. If oil prices experience another major spike, I expect CF Industries to be a significant beneficiary.

CF Industries is currently the highest-rated agricultural chemicals company according to Investor’s Business Daily, with a relative strength rating of 59 and an impressive earnings per share (EPS) rating of 92. Together with its other metrics, this gives CF Industries a composite rating of 78.

From a technical perspective, CF Industries surged along with oil prices from January through March but has since been consolidating in a triangle pattern for the past five months, with a key resistance zone between $130 and $142.40. I am now watching for a convincing, high-volume breakout above both the triangle pattern and the resistance zone, which I believe is likely to kick off another powerful rally, especially if it occurs in conjunction with a breakout in oil prices.

We’ve finally come to the end of this lengthy report, and I am well aware that an entire book could be written on this subject. I tried to condense it as much as possible in the interest of getting it out in a timely manner for those looking to potentially take advantage of these opportunities in the energy sector. I hope I did a good job of explaining the overall thesis with enough detail to get my point across without becoming overly technical, so that readers from a wide range of backgrounds can understand it.

As I said at the start of this report, I debated whether to publish it at all due to the high level of risk and uncertainty in the energy sector right now. The geopolitical situation remains highly fluid and dependent on headlines and negotiations that are inherently unpredictable.

Ultimately, however, I decided to publish it because I have been taking a much greater interest in energy lately and wanted to share my research and the opportunities I am currently watching. For full disclosure, I am currently long XLE and CF Industries and hope to enter some of the other stocks and ETFs I highlighted in this report in the future.

I am well aware that the bottom could fall out of the energy sector very quickly if there is a surprise amelioration in the U.S.-Iran war, though that is looking increasingly improbable, which is why I finally decided to dip my toes in. That said, I am prepared with an exit strategy if things do not pan out as expected. This is why I only recommend this sector for those with greater trading experience and risk tolerance, rather than mom-and-pop investors.

At the moment, I am closely watching for breakouts in both WTI and Brent crude oil, along with the energy ETFs and individual stocks I discussed throughout this report. I have strong conviction that a long-term energy supercycle lies ahead as part of a broader commodities and precious metals supercycle. The extreme uncertainty right now lies in the geopolitical situation, which adds another layer of complication when it comes to short-term timing.

I hope you enjoyed this report. I have many more interesting and detailed reports planned for this fall, in which I will explore different facets of the commodities supercycle ahead and the exciting opportunities within it, in addition to continuing my coverage of precious metals, which remain my favorite investments and the bedrock of my portfolio.

Thanks again for all of your support, which allows me to continue producing the kind of in-depth content that I am truly passionate about.

Disclaimer: the information provided in The Bubble Bubble Report and related content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. Nothing in this publication constitutes a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any securities, commodities, or financial instruments.

All investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex.

After rebounding sharply from its $3,900 to $4,100 support zone and breaking above the downtrend line that had been in effect for much of the 2026 correction, gold is now firmly within its $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone, which formed over a nine-month period from the key highs and lows between October and June.

This recent price action is all very encouraging, and there is a strong likelihood that the correction that began in January is now over and that gold, along with precious metals in general, will resume its long-term bull market through the end of the year and beyond. That said, I would like to see gold completely push above its $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone for even greater assurance that the correction is indeed behind us.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

As I said in my midweek update, gold became a bit extended after its 8% rally since the start of August, and I recommended that traders be cautious and avoid jumping in aggressively, if not already long, until a shallow pullback or consolidation occurred. Sure enough, that consolidation began during the last few days of the week and probably needs a bit more time to develop.

This is all good and healthy behavior that is setting the stage for the next leg of the rally, and a breakout from this consolidation should provide another solid opportunity to get on board. I will notify you when that occurs.

As a reminder, I firmly believe that precious metals and miners are in a long-term bull market that began only in April 2024 and has at least another eight years to run based on historical cycles. I believe the January-to-August correction was merely a healthy pause within that bull market rather than the beginning of a new bear market. Read my report from a few days ago, where I explained this thesis in detail.

Over the past few weeks, silver has rebounded precisely off its $45 to $55 support zone, broken above the downtrend line that had been in effect since late January, and is now firmly within its $60 to $70 resistance zone, formed by the key lows between December and June.

This is all very encouraging behavior that I take as a sign that the correction is likely over, though I would like to see a solid close above the $60 to $70 resistance zone to feel even more confident in that assertion.

As I said in my midweek update, silver was a bit extended after its 10% rally, so I urged caution for any traders considering entering a new position, lest they get caught in a pullback or consolidation, even if it proves to be shallow and brief. Indeed, that consolidation began toward the end of the week, but so far it has been healthy, and the recent breakout above the downtrend line remains fully intact.

I would like to see a bit more consolidation to create another solid, low-risk entry opportunity for traders looking to go long upon the next breakout, and I will let you know when that occurs.

As a reminder, my position is that silver is still in the very early stages of a long-term bull market with many more years left to run, and that the correction since January was not at all the end of that bull market, but simply a pause after two very strong bullish years. I explained this thesis in detail in my recent silver report.

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I am writing these reports to encourage my subscribers and explain why the precious metals bull market remains very much intact, and why the correction that began in January was merely a pause or normal cooling-off period rather than the beginning of a new long-term bear market.

In today’s report, I want to discuss the concept of capital rotation between stocks and precious metals and explain why it confirms that the precious metals bull market is still only in its early stages and has much further to run. I will also show how the previous secular precious metals bull markets of the 1970s and 2000s experienced significant corrections of their own, just like the one we have experienced since January, which is now likely over, as I explained in my latest technical update.

To understand today’s report, I first want to explain that historically, stocks and precious metals have essentially acted as counterbalances to one another. When one is in a secular, or long-term, bull market, the other is typically in a secular bear market, and vice versa, as capital rotates from one to the other in recurring cycles that typically last at least a decade.

The long-term chart below of the gold-to-Dow ratio, shown on a logarithmic scale, illustrates this concept very clearly. When the ratio is declining, stocks are outperforming gold, while when the ratio is rising, gold is outperforming stocks. I chose the Dow for this comparison simply because it has the longest history, but the same concept applies to other major stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Periods when stocks outperformed gold, as shown by the green trendlines, include the 1930s through the 1960s, the early 1980s through the early 2000s, and the early 2010s through the mid-2020s. Conversely, periods when gold outperformed stocks, as shown by the gold trendlines, include the late 1960s through the early 1980s, the early 2000s through the early 2010s, and the current cycle of gold outperformance, which began in April 2024.

The way to determine when a new cycle has begun is by watching for a break of the prevailing trendline. When a green trendline is broken to the upside, it signals the start of a new secular bull market in gold and a secular bear market or period of stagnation in stocks. Conversely, when a gold trendline is broken to the downside, it signals the start of a new secular bull market in stocks and a secular bear market in gold.

While I focused on gold in the previous chart and section, this capital rotation between stocks and gold also applies to silver, as well as precious metals mining stocks. That is not surprising, as both are highly correlated with gold and typically follow its long-term trends.

The chart below shows the silver-to-Dow ratio and reveals the same recurring cycles, lasting more than a decade, in which silver outperforms stocks and then stocks outperform silver. Most importantly, a new secular bull market in silver began in early 2024, when the ratio broke above the green downtrend line that had been in effect since the early 2010s.

Now I want to zoom in on the gold-to-Dow ratio chart I showed at the beginning of this report to show you where it currently stands and why the secular bull market in gold, and thus the overall precious metals complex, remains firmly intact. Far from being in a new secular bear market, the weakness in the first half of 2026 was simply a normal correction along the way to much higher prices in the decade ahead.

As illustrated in the chart below, a new secular bull market in gold and precious metals began in April 2024, when the gold-to-Dow ratio closed above the green downtrend line that had been in effect since 2011. That breakout marked the beginning of a new era of precious metals outperforming stocks, with a new gold uptrend line now forming beneath the ratio as it continues to advance.

From the start of the bull market in early 2024 through January 2026, gold surged from roughly $2,000 an ounce to $5,600, a gain of 180% in less than two years. That is a scorching performance for gold, which, as a reminder, is a safe-haven asset, not a hot tech stock. During that same period, silver exploded from roughly $26 to $121, a staggering 365% gain, which is truly an outstanding performance.

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Even more impressive is that the precious metals complex has managed these gains in the face of yet another rebound in energy prices. Last week’s optimism over an imminent peace deal with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has once again turned to pessimism as peace talks have reached a stalemate, with Iran making a stiff list of demands that includes hundreds of billions of dollars in war reparations and restrictions on U.S.-aligned ships traveling through the strait. President Trump has countered with his own list of demands, including reparations from Iran for those who have died during the conflict.

As of now, the Trump administration has shifted its approach toward Iran away from heavy missile attacks and toward intensifying economic pressure, essentially trying to wait Iran out to see whether the country’s political regime will eventually crumble under the strain or be toppled by a domestic revolt or popular uprising. That was the original hope at the start of the war, but it never materialized as expected.

Due to growing skepticism over the prospects of an imminent peace deal, in a sharp reversal from last week’s optimism, energy prices have rebounded strongly. Over the past week, WTI crude oil has surged nearly 11%, Brent crude 13%, RBOB gasoline 11%, and heating oil/diesel 16%. Meanwhile, global oil inventories continue to sink to dangerously low levels, while the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1983.

Remarkably, despite the sharp rebound in energy prices over the past week, the odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026 have fallen from their late-July peak of 78% to just 55% today. That decline has been aided by last week’s three weak U.S. jobs reports, as I explained in my weekend update, as well as Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report, which came in line with expectations and showed inflation easing for the second consecutive month, with headline CPI rising at a 3.4% annual rate in July.

The next major potential market-moving catalyst is another key inflation report: the U.S. July Producer Price Index (PPI), due Thursday morning. It is expected to come in at around 4.9% year over year, cooling from June’s 5.5% pace. Inflation reports are being watched more closely than usual by market participants as they attempt to gauge the odds of further Fed rate hikes, with the next Fed meeting scheduled for September 16.

My point in highlighting these interest rate expectations is that precious metals, as non-yielding assets, are highly sensitive to them. The rapid rise in rate expectations in recent months, driven by the Iran war and the resulting surge in energy prices, has been a major source of downward pressure on precious metals.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex.

After testing the key $3,900 to $4,100 support zone from late June through early August, gold was unable to break below it and instead staged a powerful rebound. It has now erased much of its sharp June selloff, which is a very relieving and encouraging development that greatly increases the chances that the correction that began in January is finally over and that the long-term bull market can resume its upward trajectory.

Gold is now deep into its $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone, which formed over a nine-month period from the key highs and lows between October and June. That is a very encouraging sign, though I would like to see gold break fully above this zone for even greater confirmation of this bullish change in trend. Assuming that occurs, the odds of the next leg higher and a strong rally into year-end, not just for gold but for the entire precious metals complex, will increase significantly.

With gold having surged roughly $500 per ounce in just a couple of weeks, it is now a bit extended in the short term, increasing the chances of a brief pullback or consolidation phase. For those looking to enter trades in either gold or gold mining stocks (as opposed to stacking bullion), I would therefore exercise some caution for now and wait for a brief cool-off period, then look to buy upon a breakout from that consolidation, especially since there is still significant resistance overhead that needs to be cleared.

Rebounds from major corrections like the one we have experienced since January are a process and rarely occur in a straight line. Instead, they typically unfold through a series of rallies followed by consolidations, then further rallies as each successive resistance zone or level is surpassed like another hurdle.

The final and most important hurdle is the peak reached just before the correction began. Once that level is decisively surpassed, the asset enters blue-sky territory with no obvious resistance overhead, allowing it to rally much more freely than during the process of digging its way out of a correction.

It’s also important to remember that we are still deep in the dog days of summer, with trading volume across the financial markets remaining very light and trading conditions unusually thin, which tends to amplify reactions to economic data and headlines. Once summer ends and volume begins to normalize in September, I believe the odds of a successful and sustained rally will greatly increase, as volume is the lifeblood of the financial markets.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

Further good news for the nascent gold rebound can be seen in global exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, with gold ETFs attracting $3 billion in net inflows last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of positive net inflows:

Moving on to silver, we can see that it has rebounded strongly off its key $45 to $55 support zone, closed above the downtrend line that had been in effect since late January, and is now pushing deep into the important $60 to $70 resistance zone formed by the key lows between December and June.

I am impressed with silver’s recent price action and am now waiting for it to fully surpass its $60 to $70 resistance zone for even greater assurance that the correction is behind us, though that is already my suspicion. Each successive push above resistance following a correction increases the odds of a successful return to the long-term trend, which in silver’s case remains firmly upward.

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I am well aware that this is an extremely broad topic and that entire books could be written about it, but the basic materials and commodities boom is rapidly heating up again, and I want to get this series of reports out as quickly as possible so subscribers who are interested can potentially take advantage of these opportunities while it is still early. For that reason, I have made this report as efficient as possible while still covering the overall gist of the topic and being as thorough as time allows.

I want to start by explaining that although the broad U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, is often viewed as one single index or market, the reality is that it is comprised of 11 distinct sectors: communication services, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, financials, health care, industrials, materials (or basic materials), real estate, technology, and utilities. Each sector has its own unique characteristics and tends to perform differently at various stages of the business cycle.

The screenshot below shows the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 along with the popular and highly liquid ETFs offered by State Street that track each one, making it very convenient to invest in a particular sector or theme:

Today’s report focuses on the basic materials sector, which is comprised of companies involved in the sourcing, processing, and distribution of raw materials. This includes commodities and materials such as copper, gold, silver, fertilizer, lumber, concrete, glass, and other building materials. In other words, basic materials is the sector where commodity and natural resource stocks are found, excluding energy, which is classified as its own separate sector.

Since I started this newsletter almost two years ago, I have been expecting a secular bull market in commodities over the decade ahead, also known as a commodities supercycle. I believe the boom in gold, silver, and their mining stocks that began in early 2024 kicked off that supercycle and was just a harbinger of an even greater boom in commodities and basic materials to come, similar to the powerful bull markets of the 1970s and 2000s.

What has accelerated the timeframe and urgency of me kicking off this series of reports is what I am now seeing beneath the surface of the market. Technology stocks, particularly semiconductors, went from leading the stock market rally this spring to cooling off rapidly over the past month, while the best-performing sector over both the past month and the past week, as shown below, has actually been basic materials.

This sector is often considered boring and tends to fly under the radar, but it is now showing notable signs of strength and resilience as investors look beyond technology for bargains, promising new themes, and safe havens from tech volatility and overvaluation.

The most straightforward and easiest way to gain exposure to the overall basic materials sector is through the State Street® Materials Select Sector SPDR® ETF, which trades under the symbol XLB.

Of course, as I mentioned earlier, there are individual industry groups under the basic materials umbrella, including precious metals miners and base metals miners, which I will cover in separate reports in this series over the next few days. For today, however, my primary focus is XLB and the broader basic materials sector.

As shown in the graphic below, the XLB basic materials ETF is comprised of 49.45% chemicals-related stocks, 21.37% metals and mining stocks, 16.14% containers and packaging stocks, and 13.04% construction materials stocks:

The table below shows the individual stocks held by the XLB ETF and their respective weightings. As you can see, its holdings include major gold and copper miners such as Newmont Corporation, the world’s largest gold mining company, and Freeport-McMoRan, one of the world’s largest publicly traded copper producers, along with several agricultural and fertilizer companies. I expect these types of companies to perform very well during the commodities supercycle of the next decade or so.

One of the benefits of investing in the basic materials sector is that it typically benefits from and acts as a hedge against inflation, which particularly appeals to me because I believe the inflation genie was let out of the bottle following the 2020 pandemic.

That can be seen in the U.S. inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which averaged just 1.6% during the pre-pandemic period from 2012 to 2019 compared with roughly 3.1% during the post-pandemic years from 2023 through mid-2026, nearly double the previous rate.

Inflation has remained persistently elevated, and I expect that trend to continue and even worsen in the years ahead as our heavily indebted government and society are increasingly forced to rely on various forms of money creation (or “digital money printing”) to remain propped up.

And, of course, there is good reason to believe that the CPI understates the true rate of inflation, as demonstrated by John Williams’s Shadow Government Statistics, which estimates inflation using historical methodologies and shows it running far hotter than today’s official figures.

With all the hand-wringing in our society over inflation, and ordinary people casting blame on the opposing political party, almost nobody focuses on its true root cause: the relentless expansion of the money supply, which steadily waters down and debases the currency.

As Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman famously stated, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money.”

As the chart below shows, the U.S. M2 money supply has exploded roughly fivefold since 2000, soaring from just $4.7 trillion to $23.2 trillion today. There is no sign of this long-term trend letting up, and I actually expect it to accelerate in the years ahead, helping usher in another inflationary era similar to the 1970s, which was a tremendous period for commodities and basic materials while the rest of the stock and bond market stagnated.

Now I want to show you the long-term chart of the XLB basic materials ETF since 2000. As you can see, it has been in a steady long-term uptrend, thanks to the relentless expansion of the money supply and resulting inflation, with particularly powerful booms during the 2000s commodities supercycle and the post-COVID inflationary years. XLB rose roughly 2.5-fold during both episodes, and after several years of largely treading water, I believe another similar boom is ahead.

So while the basic materials sector has clearly risen over time, the reality is that it has actually lagged the overall stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, for roughly the past 17 years. As shown in the chart below of the ratio between the XLB and SPY ETFs, that prolonged underperformance has left basic materials at its cheapest level relative to the broad stock market since the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000.

The fact that the basic materials sector is now at its cheapest level relative to the broad stock market since 2000 is no coincidence. We were in a massive tech bubble back then, and I believe we are in another tech bubble today, this time centered on the Magnificent Seven and AI-related stocks.

During technology booms and bubbles, basic materials and commodities typically lag as capital pours into tech-related investments. But when those tech booms end—and they always do—capital flows back into basic materials and commodities, fueling powerful supercycles that typically last around a decade.

While I have focused so far on the XLB basic materials ETF, I also want to show the most well-known commodities index, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), because the same bullish setup can clearly be seen there as well, further confirming what I am seeing in XLB. Note: the GSCI includes energy-related commodities while the XLB basic materials ETF does not include energy.

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The precious metals complex exploded higher over the past week, breaking out after a long period of quiet trading throughout July as several major catalysts provided the spark for the move. Those catalysts included the sharp decline in energy prices as the Trump administration seeks to wind down the war with Iran that began in late February, as well as three much weaker-than-expected U.S. labor reports that have greatly reduced the odds of Fed rate hikes in 2026.

Though the details are still being fleshed out and remain very much up in the air, the Trump administration has said that it is close to reaching a deal with Iran that would reopen the economically vital Strait of Hormuz. The deal may entail some measure of Iranian control over the strait, which would be a less-than-ideal outcome compared with what was originally hoped for, but it would at least avoid an even greater quagmire that could potentially drag on for years and result in far higher energy prices and inflation.

As a result of the rising odds of an off-ramp from the war, energy prices have fallen significantly over the past week, with WTI crude oil down approximately 11%, Brent crude down roughly 9%, RBOB gasoline down 6.5%, and heating oil/diesel down 7.5%.

The combination of falling energy prices and three weak U.S. jobs reports over the past week has caused the odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026 to plummet from a peak of 78% the prior week to just 55% now. That sharp decline in rate hike odds has given precious metals a major boost, as non-yielding assets are highly sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations.

On Tuesday, the June JOLTS report showed 7.36 million job openings, down from a revised 7.54 million in May, while Wednesday’s ADP report showed private employers added 44,000 jobs in July, falling short of expectations of 65,000. Friday completed the trifecta, with the July monthly jobs report showing a shocking loss of 23,000 jobs versus expectations for a gain of 83,000.

The next potentially big market mover to keep an eye on is Wednesday’s July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is particularly important right now because the Fed is far more focused on inflation risks than employment as it determines whether to keep rates where they are or raise them at its remaining meetings this year, with the next meeting on September 16. The year-over-year headline CPI is expected to rise 3.4%, while the core CPI is expected to rise 2.5%, so any significant deviation from those expectations is likely to trigger a major move in the markets.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex.

Over the past week, COMEX gold futures surged $237 per ounce, or 5.70%, to close at $4,401.30, the highest level since gold fell below that mark in early June and its strongest weekly performance since January.

On Friday, gold spiked in response to the much weaker-than-expected U.S. July jobs report, extending the surge that began on Wednesday. Both days saw trading volume well above the recent average, adding further credence to the breakout and showing that big institutional investors are getting behind the move. To learn more about the importance of strong volume during breakouts, read my tutorial on the subject.

Gold is now deep into its $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone, which formed over a nine-month period from the key highs and lows between October and June. That is a very encouraging sign, though I would like to see gold break fully above this zone for even greater confirmation of this bullish change in trend. Assuming that occurs, the odds of the next leg higher and a strong rally into year-end, not just for gold but for the entire precious metals complex, will increase significantly.

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The stage was set for this surge over the weekend when, at the urging of Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern nations, President Trump called off the next wave of even more devastating attacks on Iran. He then announced, alongside U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, that a U.S.–Iran peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within the next few days.

While there is still considerable confusion around the situation with Iran and details are still being ironed out, reports indicate that Iran denies direct peace talks with the U.S. and is instead negotiating with Oman over a route for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The financial markets, including the energy market, are treating this as a very positive development. That said, as we have seen in recent months, caution is still warranted.

So far this week, energy prices have fallen sharply, with WTI crude down 13.5%, Brent crude down 11%, RBOB gasoline futures down roughly 11%, and heating oil/diesel down about 10%. The decline in these refined products is especially impactful for inflation and consumer sentiment, and their persistently high prices had been a major source of stress for the inflation-sensitive bond market, which has since seen some relief as energy prices have pulled back.

The decline in energy prices this week, along with two weak U.S. jobs reports, has helped pull 2026 Fed rate hike expectations down to 64% from a peak of 78% a week ago. On Tuesday, the June JOLTS report showed 7.36 million job openings, down from a revised 7.54 million in May, while Wednesday’s ADP report showed private employers added 44,000 jobs in July, falling short of expectations of 65,000.

On Friday, the key monthly nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show job gains of 83,000 in July with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, and it has the potential to be a market mover. That said, the Fed is currently more focused on inflation than on the labor market.

My point in highlighting these interest rate expectations is that precious metals, as non-yielding assets, are highly sensitive to them. The rapid rise in rate expectations in recent months, driven by the Iran war and the resulting surge in energy prices, has been a major source of downward pressure on precious metals. For that reason, I am watching these expectations closely to see whether they trend lower in response to declining energy prices, which has been the case over the past week.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. As noted earlier, gold surged $173.80 per ounce, or 4.2%, on Wednesday after more than a month of quiet, low-volume trading.

Gold’s surge today is not surprising to me, as I have been showing how it has held above the key $3,900 to $4,100 support zone, which formed at the lows in October and November 2025, and how it failed to break below that support despite multiple short-lived attempts.

What is notable is that gold and other precious metals have become inured to the steady stream of negative news out of the Middle East and the surge in energy prices, yet have continued to hold their ground. I took this as a sign that a great deal of pessimism had already been priced into precious metals, and too much so in fact, especially considering that they are still in a long-term bull market that began in early 2024 and that such bull markets typically last at least a decade.

It’s also worth noting the spike in volume in COMEX futures during today’s surge in gold, which adds further confirmation that this move is legitimate and marks the start of something new. It shows that large institutional capital (or the “smart money”) is behind the move, as I explained in this tutorial.

I am very pleased to see today’s sharp upward move in gold, and there is a strong chance that this marks the end of the correction that began in late January and the start of the next leg of the bull market, especially once trading volume picks up in September as the financial world returns from vacation mode, since healthy volume is typically necessary to push an asset higher.

That said, I am waiting for another form of confirmation in the form of a decisive, high-volume push through the $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone just overhead, which formed over a nine-month period from the highs and lows between October and June. Assuming that occurs, the odds of the next leg higher and a strong rally into year-end, not just for gold but for the entire precious metals complex, will increase significantly.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

Further confirmation that a major bullish shift is underway for gold is the return of Chinese investor demand. China’s gold-backed ETFs have recorded 14 consecutive days of inflows through Monday, the longest streak since March, attracting more than $1.2 billion over that period.

Moving on to silver, we can see that it surged $2.50 per ounce, or 4.19%, on Wednesday on healthy volume, pushing it back into its $60 to $70 resistance zone that formed from the lows between December and June. This is an excellent development, especially in conjunction with gold’s breakout today.

I am becoming increasingly optimistic that the worst is over for silver and that a new rally is about to begin, but I would still like to see a decisive breakout above the $60 to $70 resistance zone on heavy volume for additional confirmation. As I’ve been saying, we are still in the low-volume summer period, but a rebound in volume in September should be highly beneficial for this nascent rally.

Though many investors became overly pessimistic and threw in the towel on silver after its correction since January, I have remained steadfast in my belief that it is still in a secular bull market that is only about two years old and has at least the better part of a decade to run, taking it into the hundreds of dollars per ounce, as I explained in a recent report.

After a long period in a holding pattern, platinum surged with vigor, rising over 7% on Tuesday and Wednesday on strong volume, and is now back in its $1,700 to $2,000 resistance zone, which formed at key highs and lows since October.

There is a very good chance that brighter days are ahead for platinum, but as with gold and silver, I would like to see it push decisively through the $1,700 to $2,000 resistance zone for further confirmation.

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On the energy front, crude oil started the week weak on hopes of a peace deal with Iran but ended up recouping its early losses to close down just $3.76 per barrel, or 4.16%, for the week. Meanwhile, gasoline fell approximately 3%, while heating oil/diesel rose 1.39%. As a reminder, it is the price of refined products like gasoline and heating oil/diesel that is driving the most inflation concern, as they have remained persistently high even when crude oil dipped sharply, albeit temporarily, in June.

Late on Friday, just minutes before the futures market closed, President Trump announced that the U.S. would launch some of its heaviest attacks yet against Iran in an effort to force a peace deal. That news sent crude oil surging by $2.30, or 2.7%, in the final 10 minutes of trading before the weekend, while stock and Treasury bond futures also moved lower.

Then on Saturday, Trump backed off from the planned attacks at the urging of Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries, while stating that the “perimeters of a deal” had been reached with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, IG Group’s “Weekend Oil” market shows crude down about 6.43% at the time of writing, though it remains to be seen what will actually happen when oil futures open this evening.

This back-and-forth, on-and-off, deal/no-deal, Hormuz open-then-closed pattern has defined this entire chaotic Iran war, which has now dragged on for five months and is becoming truly maddening. It is impossible to predict how this will play out, and every swing in the oil market has had major repercussions across other markets, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and precious metals.

Someone on X asked me whether I’m interested in investing in oil and if the energy sector is better than precious metals, and here was my response:

As I said, I am very interested in the long-term bullish energy thesis, and I plan to publish a report, possibly this week but with no guarantees, outlining my thoughts on that and the energy ETFs and stocks I believe are best positioned to play it. However, I believe energy right now is an especially risky proposition due to the geopolitical volatility and uncertainty, so any exposure I take would be conservative. That said, I do hope to scale it up once this Iran war (hopefully) winds down.

Fed 2026 rate hike expectations dropped from 78% to 67% after Wednesday’s Fed meeting, which resulted in no hike, though expectations have risen significantly in recent months due to the surge in energy costs tied to the Iran war.

In the coming week, we have a series of U.S. labor reports, including the ADP private employment report, initial jobless claims on Thursday, and the key July nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. These have strong potential to move the markets, although the Fed is currently more focused on inflation risks than employment risks.

Something notable I want to point out, and which has been the talk of the financial world over the past few days, is the spike in U.S. government bond yields (and the corresponding sharp decline in bond prices) following the Fed meeting.

This is a sign that bond investors were not pleased with the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady instead of raising them by at least 25 basis points to prevent inflation from becoming entrenched. As a reminder, bonds are particularly sensitive to inflation, with long-duration bonds such as 20- and 30-year Treasuries being the most sensitive to changes in inflation expectations.

30-year Treasury bond yields reached 5.27% by the end of the week, the highest level since 2007. This surge is now threatening a breakout from the triangle pattern that has formed over the past four years, and if confirmed with a solid close, it points to even higher yields and further downside in bond prices in the years ahead.

I have been expecting a bear market in U.S. government bonds and much higher yields in the years ahead due to persistent inflation and the U.S. government’s extreme level of indebtedness. As I wrote in May, publicly held U.S. national debt surpassed 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II, so this recent spike in bond yields is not at all surprising to me.

While there has been a strong narrative lately that inflation and higher bond yields are bearish for precious metals—and I can see how they may create short-term volatility—history shows that the biggest bull markets in commodities and precious metals have occurred alongside the sharpest spikes in bond yields, such as during the inflationary 1970s (as show in the chart below). I view that period as a strong analog for the era we are heading into, which leads me to expect oil, precious metals, and bond yields to rise together while bond prices fall as inflation erodes their value.

The reason I believe surging Treasury bond yields (and falling bond prices) will ultimately be bullish for precious metals is that the U.S. government will be forced to step in and support the bond market by any means necessary, including policies such as yield curve control and other measures that are effectively equivalent to creating new money. That will further erode the purchasing power of the dollar and drive precious metals and other commodities significantly higher.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. Despite an extremely volatile week filled with confusing crosscurrents, gold continues to hold its ground and gained another 1%. More importantly, the breakout from its triangle two weeks ago remains valid, though I would still like to see stronger upside follow-through.

I believe a new catalyst to drive that move is ahead, whether it be a falling dollar, growing concern over rising Treasury yields, the deflating tech bubble, or something else—we shall soon see.

Gold continues to hold its $3,900 to $4,100 support zone, which formed at the lows in October and November 2025, and I would like to see it decisively push above that zone for further confirmation of strength and the triangle breakout. Encouragingly, it has already reached the top end of this zone but still needs to clear it fully, as it is just a couple of dollars away, with front-month COMEX gold futures closing at $4,098.60 on Friday.

Assuming gold can push decisively above the $3,900 to $4,100 zone, I then want to see it clear the next hurdle at $4,300 to $4,600. A strong break above that zone would be a solid signal that the recent weakness has run its course. This resistance was established over a nine-month period by the highs and lows from October through June.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

Silver is currently sandwiched between its $45 to $55 support zone and the $60 to $70 resistance zone, and I am now looking for further bullish confirmation in the form of a move above that $60 to $70 resistance zone just overhead. A breakout there would allow the rebound to fully gain traction and signal that the correction is over.

As I’ve been saying in my recent updates, the financial markets—including precious metals—are currently in the low-volume, thinly traded summer doldrums, and it may take a pickup in volume after the summer for a sustained upside move to develop, as volume is the lifeblood of the financial markets.

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All things considered, precious metals, while fairly flat in recent weeks, have held their ground well in the face of potentially disruptive catalysts, as I’ll show in the charting portion of this update.

Today’s Fed meeting has overshadowed the U.S.–Iran headlines in recent days, and as largely expected, though not a certainty, the Fed held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, where they have remained since January. The committee made no changes to its policy statement, reaffirmed that inflation remains elevated due to rising energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict, and reiterated its commitment to delivering price stability.

Precious metals breathed a sigh of relief, with spot gold rising $37.67 per ounce, or just under 1%, and spot silver gaining $0.51 per ounce, also just under 1%. Meanwhile, the stock market continued to sell off, with the S&P 500 down 1.77%, the Dow falling 2.22%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropping 2.51%.

Energy prices remain persistently high, though they dropped early in the week after President Trump paused his bombing campaign on Iran over the weekend following nearly two weeks of sustained nightly strikes in an effort to restart peace talks.

However, tensions quickly flared again after Iran targeted American forces in the Middle East with ballistic missiles, sending energy prices surging once more and prompting Trump to say, “We’ll be hitting them hard. They’re going to get a beating.”

While crude oil has rebounded throughout July, even more concerning is the persistently high cost of refined products such as gasoline and heating oil/diesel, which have a far greater impact on inflation and consumer psychology. These elevated prices are being driven by disruptions to critical energy infrastructure in the Middle East due to the war, as well as Russia’s diesel export ban.

The surge in energy prices in recent months has steadily pushed up 2026 Fed rate hike expectations, though after today’s meeting those odds fell from yesterday’s high of 78% to 63%. There are three Fed meetings remaining this year in September, October, and December, so all eyes will be on how energy prices and inflation evolve in the months ahead. In the near term, the June PCE report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be released Thursday morning and has strong potential to move the markets.

While higher interest rate expectations typically put downward pressure on precious metals, since they do not earn a yield, they have held up quite well in spite of that. This resilience suggests that a great deal of pessimism has already been priced in, and I would argue far too excessively, which could set the stage for a sharp rebound if the technical breakouts I discuss next materialize.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. Early last week, gold broke out of a triangle pattern that many bearish commentators had expected to resolve to the downside, with calls for a move well into the $3,000s. Instead, the opposite occurred, which I view as a clear win.

The breakout remains valid, although there has not yet been much upside follow-through, which could still lie ahead, with the upcoming PCE report serving as a potential catalyst.

It’s also important to remember that we are in the heart of summer, when trading volume is light and conditions are thin as much of Wall Street is in vacation mode, so there is not much “juice” right now to push precious metals significantly higher, though will change as we move into September.

Gold continues to hold its $3,900 to $4,100 support zone, which formed at the lows in October and November 2025, and I want to see it decisively push above that zone as further confirmation of strength and the triangle breakout.

Assuming gold can push decisively above the $3,900 to $4,100 zone, I then want to see it clear the next hurdle at $4,300 to $4,600. A strong break above that zone would be a strong signal that the recent weakness has run its course. This resistance was established over a nine-month period by the highs and lows from October through June.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

Silver has also been holding its ground in recent weeks amid the geopolitical turmoil, and its breakout from the triangle last week remains intact. I am now looking for further bullish confirmation in the form of a move above the $60 to $70 resistance zone just overhead, which would allow the rebound to fully gain traction and signal that the correction is over. As mentioned earlier, it may require trading volume to pick up after the summer for that to occur.

Platinum is still in a holding pattern between its $1,300 to $1,500 support zone and the $1,700 to $2,000 resistance zone.

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My view all along has been that this pullback is simply a healthy and normal cooling-off period following two very strong years, 2024 and 2025, and not the start of a new secular bear market in precious metals like those seen in the 1980s and 2010s.

Unfortunately, a large portion of the precious metals community has sunk into deep pessimism, believing the party is over after just two years and that it’s all downhill from here, so I’m writing these reports to push back against that foolish, fallacious, and short-sighted thinking.

I decided to start this series with a report on silver, but I’ll be covering the other precious metals and the mining industry next, so stay tuned for those as well.

For the past couple of years, a key part of my bullish thesis on silver, though just one of many components, has been the breakout from its massive six-decade cup and handle pattern that began forming back in the 1960s. I started highlighting this pattern even before the breakout occurred in November 2025, and I reiterated how bullish it was once that breakout took place.

Due to the sheer size and magnitude of that pattern, both in terms of price and time, it projects silver reaching at least several hundred dollars per ounce over the next 5 to 10 years. I believe that is fully justified by how cheap it still is relative to multiple yardsticks (as I’ll show later in this report), as well as the global economic bombs that are set to explode in the coming years.

The breakout from silver’s cup and handle pattern occurred when it surpassed the key $50 resistance level in the fall of 2025, a level that has now become support, and that breakout remains completely valid even though silver has pulled back from its $121 peak in January. As you may recall, $50 marked the peaks of the silver bull markets in both 1980 and 2011, after which silver fell into bear markets, but not this time.

That is a sign that something very big is unfolding and that silver’s bull market is much closer to its beginning than its end. In other words, the party is just getting started, so it’s not time to be thinking about it winding down anytime soon.

And yes, silver got a bit ahead of itself in the short term in January, which I warned about at that time, and it has since pulled back, but it’s important to remember that it remains above that key $50 support level, which means that the overall bull market is still completely alive and well.

The pullback since January was simply a re-test of the breakout from its cup and handle pattern, and I expect silver to soon resume its upward trajectory now that the speculative excesses have been flushed out.

There is a way to measure short-term speculative excesses using an indicator known as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which I’ve applied to silver’s weekly chart below. As you can see, silver became extremely overbought in January after roughly tripling in six months, which signaled a cooling-off period to follow.

It’s important to understand that this is completely normal market behavior. I’ve previously shown that every powerful bull market in history features this pattern of surges followed by pullbacks or consolidation, and there is no reason to expect this bull market in silver to be any different.

After six months of correction, silver is no longer overbought and is sitting just above its $50 support level, which was the former resistance of the long-term cup and handle pattern. That tells us this re-test of the breakout was successful and did exactly what it was supposed to do, which is flush out the speculative excesses, namely the fast-money traders who rushed in when things got hot in December and January and likely had little to no interest in silver when I first identified the early signs of a new bull market in the spring of 2024.

Now I know you’re probably thinking silver must touch that $50 support level for this re-test to be complete, but that’s not a given and there’s no ironclad rule that says it has to happen. That’s exactly why I publish my regular tactical analysis (click here for my most recent one), where I’m focused on determining when the correction is truly over and when the next leg of the bull market has begun.

Now I want to address the other reasons why silver has much further to rise, why January 2026 was not the end of the bull market, and why the several hundred dollar per ounce projection from the cup and handle pattern is quite realistic, by showing just how cheap silver still is across several reliable yardsticks.

The first yardstick I will use is the silver-to-U.S. M2 money supply ratio, indexed to 100, which is essentially a way of adjusting for inflation, and in my view a far more accurate one than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is well known for understating inflation.

Regarding the use of the M2 money supply as a form of inflation adjustment, as Nobel Prize–winning economist Milton Friedman famously stated, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”

According to the chart below, the silver-to-M2 money supply ratio reached as high as 1,008 in 1980 and 171 in 2011, but is now just 77, which shows that silver still has tremendous upside potential if it is to match its prior peaks.

And as I’ll explain later in this report, I believe this bull market in silver will not only match but blow past its 1980 peak for multiple reasons, most importantly because our debt burden is far larger today than it was back then.

The next chart shows the silver-to-S&P 500 ratio, which is highly relevant because precious metals and stocks have historically acted as counterweights to each other, with capital rotating between them in recurring cycles that typically last over a decade, as I explained in this report.

The silver-to-S&P 500 ratio, indexed to 100, peaked at 2,007 in 1980 and 181 in 2011, but is now just 37, which further confirms that silver has much further to run in this bull market.

This is especially true given that the S&P 500 and the broader U.S. stock market are in the largest bubble in history, as evidenced by virtually every valuation metric, including the Buffett Indicator and the Shiller P/E ratio.

When the stock market bubble inevitably bursts, I see precious metals as the primary beneficiary, not Treasury bonds, the U.S. dollar, or real estate, as enormous amounts of capital flows out of the bloated stock market and into precious metals, sending them to the stratosphere. I am projecting at least $300 to $500 per ounce for silver and $15,000 per ounce for gold.

The silver-to-gold ratio, indexed to 100, also confirms that silver is quite cheap relative to its history. It reached 262 in both 1968 and 1980, and 129 in 2011, but is just 56 today, which shows that silver has significant room to rise and is not richly valued by any measure.

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Energy prices continued to rise, with light crude up 9.18%, gasoline nearly 2%, and heating oil/diesel up 4%, though they were even higher on Thursday before easing somewhat on Friday after Pakistan sought to restart peace talks. As a result, higher inflation expectations pushed U.S. Treasury yields to their highest levels in three years, with the 30-year yield reaching 5.16%.

The chart below shows the sharp rebound in energy prices after peace talks between the U.S. and Iran all but failed and the war re-escalated. Of particular concern is the persistently high prices of refined products like gasoline and heating oil/diesel, which didn’t decline as much as crude during the now-failed talks in June and have a much greater impact on inflation and consumer psychology.

The worsening situation in the Iran war, and the resulting surge in energy prices, pushed 2026 U.S. Fed rate hike expectations up to 73%, from as low as 51% just last week after June CPI and PPI inflation data came in cooler than expected.

Higher interest rate expectations tend to put short-term pressure on precious metals, which do not earn any yield (not that I view that as a negative, as they excel as a hedge against monetary debasement and crisis, which I firmly believe lies ahead).

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. Despite a rough week marked by surging energy prices, rising inflation expectations, a stronger U.S. dollar, higher bond yields, and increasing rate hike expectations, gold held its ground and still managed to rise 1.35%. While that may not seem overly impressive at first glance, it’s actually quite notable given the backdrop, and may be a sign that gold is starting to tune out those headwinds.

As I showed on Tuesday, gold broke out of its triangle pattern to the upside, which I view as a victory, especially with many pessimistic commentators calling for a downside break that would have sent gold deep into the $3,000s.

And despite gold’s pullback on Thursday amid the new risk of a Houthi blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the resulting spike in energy prices, it rebounded on Friday, meaning the breakout from the triangle pattern remains intact, as I’ll show in more detail shortly.

Gold continues to hold its $3,900 to $4,100 support zone, which formed at the lows in October and November 2025, and I want to see it decisively push above that zone as further confirmation of strength and the triangle breakout.

Assuming gold can push decisively above the $3,900 to $4,100 zone, I then want to see it clear the next hurdle at $4,300 to $4,600. A strong break above that zone would be a strong signal that the recent weakness has run its course. This resistance was established over a nine-month period by the highs and lows from October through June.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

Another point to keep in mind for gold and precious metals right now is that we’re deep in the dog days of summer, and trading volume is very low and thin as much of Wall Street is in vacation mode, in the Hamptons or at the beach. As a result, it may take until after the summer for volume to return and support a sustained rally. It’s important to remember that volume is the lifeblood of the markets.

Taking a closer look at gold’s breakout from the triangle pattern, it broke out on Tuesday, extended the move on Wednesday, pulled back on Thursday (thanks, Houthi rebels!), and then recovered slightly on Friday.

While Thursday’s setback was frustrating, the reality is that the breakout from this triangle pattern remains intact and valid, which is encouraging. However, as I’ve been saying, there is still significant resistance overhead that needs to be cleared for this nascent rebound to gain real traction and become sustainable.

Moving on to silver, we can see it rose nearly 5% during this challenging week, and despite Thursday’s setback, the breakout from the triangle pattern remains fully intact. I would much rather be in this position than facing a downside break, which is what many bearish commentators were expecting.

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While this is a very encouraging development and a likely sign that the correction since January has come to an end, further confirmation is still needed before making that call, which I’ll cover in today’s important update.

Today was an unusual day in the financial markets because several relationships that had been in place since the start of the Iran war have shifted, which is a sign of potentially big changes. Most notably, precious metals were up significantly on a day when energy prices, the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and Fed interest rate expectations also rose sharply.

Since the start of the Iran war in late February, precious metals have been pummeled by surging energy prices, as that drove higher inflation expectations, which in turn pushed up interest rate expectations, something that often puts pressure on non-yielding assets like precious metals (as I explained here).

In addition, that combination of higher energy prices, inflation expectations, and interest rate expectations has pushed the U.S. dollar higher, which has also added downward pressure on precious metals, as the dollar and precious metals generally have an inverse relationship.

The continued rise in energy prices, driven by the sharp recent escalation of the war with Iran, has pushed expectations for 2026 Fed rate hikes over the past few days from 52% to 61%:

So, against that backdrop of surging energy prices, rising inflation expectations, higher Fed rate expectations, and climbing Treasury yields (with the 30-year yield just hitting a nearly three-year high of 5.13%), it’s very encouraging to see precious metals stage a meaningful rebound and technical breakout in the face of it.

That may be a sign they are ready to tune out the negativity and continue their secular bull market, which I believe remains very much intact despite the recent challenges.

Also, I want to point out that during past secular commodities bull markets, such as the 1970s and the 2000s, energy prices and precious metals rose in tandem while bond yields surged, as I explained in this report. I believe we are heading into a similar environment, so it wouldn’t be too surprising to see them move higher together going forward.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. Gold rose approximately $70 today, or 1.75%, rebounding off its $3,900 to $4,100 support zone, which was established by the lows in October and November 2025.

Next, I want to see gold fully exit the $3,900 to $4,100 zone with a solid close above $4,100 (it’s currently just below that at $4,086 in COMEX futures). After that, the next hurdle is the $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone. A decisive break above that would signal that the recent weakness has run its course. This resistance was established over a nine-month period by the highs and lows from October through June.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

What’s most exciting about today’s action is that gold broke out to the upside from a triangle pattern that formed over the past month. Many commentators feared it would break to the downside and send prices into the mid-$3,000s or even lower, but I took a more optimistic view, as I explained in my update on Sunday.

This breakout in gold is an excellent start and likely a sign of further bullish action ahead, but as I mentioned earlier, there is still a significant amount of resistance overhead that I want to see cleared.

As each level is broken, I will become increasingly confident that the correction is over and that the uptrend is resuming (not that I ever doubted the long-term bull market in precious metals, of course).

Silver also had a strong day, rising $2.40 per ounce, or 4.24%, launching its rebound right off the top of the $45 to $55 support zone I’ve been highlighting over the past month. This support zone was established by the highs and lows of October and November 2025.

The next hurdle is the $60 to $70 resistance zone just overhead, which needs to be cleared to confirm that the correction has run its course. This zone was established by the lows from December through June.

Like gold, silver also broke out of its triangle pattern today, which is quite encouraging, as many bearish commentators had been expecting a breakdown that would send prices below $50.

Today’s breakout increases the odds that the worst is over for silver and that further bullish action lies ahead. That said, as I mentioned earlier, I still want to see the $60 to $70 resistance zone cleared to gain greater confidence. Even so, this is an excellent start, and it’s encouraging to see an upside breakout rather than a breakdown.

In line with gold and silver, platinum rose 2.22% today, though it remains sandwiched between its $1,300 to $1,500 support zone and the $1,700 to $2,000 resistance zone.

I would like to see it clear that resistance to gain greater confidence that the correction is over and that the trend has turned upward once again.

Palladium rose 1.45% today, though it remains within its $1,100 to $1,400 support zone, which was established by the highs and lows of last summer.

A decisive move above this zone would be an encouraging sign that the correction is over and that the trend is turning upward once again.

Gold miners, as represented by the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), broke out to the upside of their triangle pattern today after a brief false breakdown on Thursday, Friday, and Monday.

I am encouraged to see this pattern resolve to the upside, especially in the face of rising energy prices, which tend to weigh on miners since energy is one of their largest input costs.

In addition, GDX continues to hold its $68 to $84 support zone, and I would like to see it push decisively above this zone to confirm that the recent weakness has run its course.

Assuming that occurs, opening up strong reward-to-risk opportunities in gold mining stocks once again, I intend to spend more time covering individual miners that I find compelling, rather than relying solely on ETFs, which I am currently using as a proxy for the industry to gauge when the correction has ended.

Silver miners, as represented by the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL), also broke out to the upside of their triangle pattern today after a brief false breakdown, similar to what occurred with gold miners.

Today’s action in silver miners, alongside strength in silver itself, is very encouraging, and I am now looking for SIL to push decisively above its $62 to $80 support zone to help confirm that the correction has run its course and that the trend is turning upward once again.

Next, let’s take a look at the U.S. Dollar Index, which is an important influence on precious metals and commodities and often, though not always, trades inversely with them.

Today’s surge in energy prices and interest rates drove a strong move higher in the U.S. Dollar Index, pushing it back out of the broadening pattern that has developed over the past year.

The implication of this move, assuming it holds, is that the dollar is likely to move higher in the near term. However, precious metals and commodities didn’t seem to care today, and the reality is that there have been periods in the past when both the dollar and precious metals have rallied together, particularly during flights to safe havens. That may be happening once again.

If you’d like to track the U.S. Dollar Index yourself, you can do so using this free chart from Finviz.

I have also been tracking the euro for additional insight into the attempted Dollar Index breakout, as it typically trades inversely with the dollar and often moves in positive correlation with precious metals.

Over the past year, the euro traded within a 1.14000 to 1.20000 range. It recently dipped below the 1.14000 support level but has since reclaimed it, and is now testing that level again amid today’s resurgence in the dollar.

If the euro breaks down, that would add further credence to the idea of a stronger dollar in the near term, but that remains to be seen as it is currently just teetering on the edge.

If you’d like to monitor the euro yourself, you can do so using this free chart from Finviz.

To conclude, today’s action in precious metals, with upside breakouts from the triangle patterns that formed over the past month, is quite encouraging, especially given the risk that they could have broken lower. This likely reflects peak pessimism, particularly because precious metals were able to rally despite rising energy prices, interest rates, and a stronger dollar, all of which had acted as bearish forces since the Iran war began.

That said, before becoming more enthusiastic, I would like to see precious metals and mining ETFs break above the key resistance zones just overhead, as that would provide important additional confirmation that the correction since January has likely run its course and that the short-term trend has turned upward once again.

As a reminder, I firmly believe that precious metals and mining stocks are in the early stages of a long-term secular bull market that began in early 2024, and that the correction since late January was merely a healthy pullback after two strong bullish years. I believe the upward trend will soon resume toward much higher levels, with gold surpassing $15,000 an ounce and silver reaching at least $300.

To reinforce my view that the precious metals bull market remains very much intact despite the 2026 correction, I have several major reports coming up that you won’t want to miss—so stay tuned, and I’ll continue to keep you updated on what I’m seeing.

Disclaimer: the information provided in The Bubble Bubble Report and related content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. Nothing in this publication constitutes a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any securities, commodities, or financial instruments.

All investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

Checking in with energy prices, crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil/diesel all moved higher over the past week as the U.S.-Iran conflict intensified. Refined products such as gasoline and diesel have been rising faster than crude in recent weeks, a dynamic with strong inflationary implications. If these elevated prices persist and the conflict does not ease, it will become a meaningful headwind for the Republican Party heading into the midterm elections this fall.

While rising energy prices have pushed the probability of 2026 U.S. rate hikes to 54%, those odds have declined from 71% following Tuesday and Wednesday’s weaker-than-expected June CPI and PPI inflation reports. However, July inflation is likely to reaccelerate, given the rebound in energy prices so far this month.

As a reminder, precious metals are sensitive to interest rate expectations because they are non-yielding assets, and they received some support over the past week as rate hike odds declined. The next Fed meeting is on July 29, and while rates are expected to remain unchanged, it is a highly anticipated event, with comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the updated dot plot likely to serve as important market-moving catalysts.

Now let’s take a look at where precious metals stand, starting with gold, which leads the overall complex. Despite a couple of attempts to move lower during the week, gold rebounded on Friday and continues to hold above the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone, which is an encouraging sign.

As a reminder, the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone was established by the lows in October and November 2025.

Ideally, I would like to see gold continue to hold above the $3,900 to $4,100 support zone and rebound from it, with the next hurdle being the $4,300 to $4,600 resistance zone. A decisive break above that zone would signal that the recent weakness has run its course. This resistance was established over a nine-month period by the highs and lows from October through June.

To learn more about support and resistance zones, I recommend reading my two-part tutorial (Part 1 and Part 2).

In my Wednesday update, I showed how a triangle pattern had formed in gold over the past month and a half. I believe gold is approaching a sharp move as it breaks out of this formation in one direction or the other, though I am not attempting to predict which way it will go, as I prefer a reactive approach and let the market reveal its direction.

My hope is that gold continuing to hold support, combined with oversold conditions, terrible investor sentiment, weakness in the dollar, and the unwinding of the semiconductor and AI stock mania, which I’ll discuss shortly, will set the stage for an upside breakout. Of course, confirmation is key.

I find it encouraging that gold rebounded off the triangle’s support on Friday, and I would like to see that momentum carry into the coming week, leading to an upside breakout, which I believe would mark the end of the recent weakness and the start of the next leg higher in the bull market.

Zooming in on gold’s 1-hour chart, there have been at least six attempts to break below the triangle’s support near $3,980, but each one failed as buyers stepped in to buy the dip. This repeated inability to break lower indicates that gold has had ample opportunity to continue down but hasn’t, which I take as a sign that selling pressure is becoming exhausted, an encouraging development for gold bulls.

Of course, the situation remains fluid, with surging energy prices, the ongoing Iran conflict, and the upcoming Fed meeting all representing important risks. I would feel much more encouraged if gold can break out to the upside from the triangle with strong volume for additional confirmation.

Similar to gold, silver also rebounded on Friday from the $45 to $55 support zone, which was formed by the highs and lows of October and November 2025, which is encouraging.

Assuming silver continues to hold above the $45 to $55 support zone and continues to rebound, likely in line with the direction of gold’s breakout from its triangle, I would then like to see it break above the $60 to $70 resistance zone to confirm that the correction has run its course. This zone was established by the lows from December through June.

Zooming in on silver’s 1-hour chart, it has clearly been holding above the key $55 support level, despite several attempts to break below it. Each time, buyers stepped in to buy the dip, which may be a sign that selling pressure is becoming exhausted.

After rebounding in late June and early July, platinum has run into resistance at the $1,700 to $2,000 zone, which has developed over the past ten months, and has since pulled back modestly.

Still, it is encouraging to see platinum holding above the $1,300 to $1,500 support zone. I would like to see it break through the $1,700 to $2,000 resistance zone just overhead to confirm that the recent weakness has run its course, with gold’s breakout from its triangle likely to be the key factor determining platinum’s next move.

In line with platinum, palladium pulled back slightly toward the end of the week but continues to trade within its $1,100 to $1,400 support zone, which was established by the highs and lows of last summer. A decisive move above this zone would be an encouraging sign that the worst is likely behind it.

Gold miners, as represented by the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), slipped slightly below the lower boundary of their triangle pattern on Thursday and Friday, but without much conviction, likely reflecting gold’s own lack of a downside breakout. As a result, I would not consider this a confirmed breakdown at this point.

The recent underperformance in gold miners relative to gold is almost certainly due to rising energy prices, as energy is one of the primary input costs in mining. As a result, how energy prices behave from here will be key for mining stock investors.

In addition, GDX continues to hold its $68 to $84 support zone, which is encouraging, and the direction of gold’s breakout from its triangle will be the key driver for gold miners in the near term. I would like to see GDX rebound from this zone to confirm that the recent weakness has run its course.

Silver miners, as represented by the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL), briefly broke below the triangle pattern but recovered much of those losses on Friday, so I do not consider this a confirmed breakdown at this time.

Like gold miners, silver miners are also being pressured by rising energy costs, so how energy prices trend from here will be an important variable.

SIL continues to hold its $62 to $80 support zone, which is encouraging, and I would like to see it push decisively above this zone to help confirm that the correction has run its course.

Next, let’s look at the U.S. Dollar Index, which is an important influence on precious metals and commodities and typically trades inversely with them.

After attempting to break out of the broadening pattern that developed over the past year, the Dollar Index pulled back earlier in the week following cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation reports and the resulting decline in interest rate expectations.

This indicates that the dollar’s attempted breakout is, for now, appearing to fail, though I would like to see a decisive close below 100 for further confirmation, as that level is both psychologically very important and has served as a key support and resistance level in recent years.

A confirmed breakdown in the dollar would be a highly positive development for the precious metals complex, which typically trades inversely with the dollar. If that occurs, it should serve as a major catalyst to bring the correction that began in January to an end.

Key catalysts for the dollar over the next couple of weeks include energy prices, which tend to support the dollar when rising, the July 29 Fed meeting, and the potential for Japanese intervention to strengthen the yen, which would weigh on the dollar.

If you’d like to track the U.S. Dollar Index yourself, you can do so using this free chart from Finviz.

I have also been tracking the euro for additional insight into the attempted Dollar Index breakout, as it typically trades inversely with the dollar and often moves in positive correlation with precious metals.

Over the past year, the euro traded within a 1.14000 to 1.20000 range. It recently dipped below the 1.14000 support level but has since reclaimed it as the dollar pulled back, and it has strengthened further following the weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation reports. This price action adds to the case that the dollar’s recent breakout attempt has failed and that further downside may lie ahead.

If you’d like to monitor the euro yourself, you can do so using this free chart from Finviz.

Now I want to discuss another important recent development for precious metals, which is the growing bust in the AI and semiconductor stock mania. After spending more time thinking through this, I have come to believe that a major driver of precious metals’ weakness this spring was the surge in AI-related stocks, which pulled significant capital away from metals and into the soaring tech trade.

The chart below compares gold and silver to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and it clearly shows that the latest surge in the AI stock mania coincided with the downturn in precious metals.

Of course, correlation does not necessarily imply causation, but I do believe there is a connection here, particularly given that tech stocks and precious metals have often traded inversely, with capital rotating between the two in recurring cycles.

I believe this dynamic particularly impacted Asian investors, who have historically been strong buyers of precious metals but were recently swept up in the AI stock mania, especially in South Korea and Taiwan. As a result, capital temporarily shifted away from metals, though that may now be starting to reverse as the AI trade begins to unwind.

Looking at the semiconductor ETF (SOXX), it appears to have formed a classic bearish head-and-shoulders topping pattern that it broke down from on Thursday and Friday, and assuming this breakdown holds, it points to further downside in AI-related stocks.

This could be an exciting short opportunity for those skilled and experienced enough, though I am not recommending it as it is high risk.

Looking at the longer-term chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index shows a clear, classic blow-off mania phase in recent months, and such parabolic moves usually do not end well.

Just consider how much capital that surge pulled away from precious metals, and what will happen once it unwinds, which I see as highly beneficial for precious metals as investors come to their senses.

Adjusting the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index for U.S. M2 money supply, essentially an inflation adjustment, shows that the latest AI and semiconductor stock mania is even more extreme than the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, and I see this one ending in a similar fashion.

Of course, I recognize that AI is a legitimate technology that is here to stay and will increasingly shape the future, but history shows that technology investments often get far ahead of themselves and need to correct those excesses. We saw the same dynamic with tech stocks in the late 1990s, even though the internet is now larger and more important than ever.

Another related factor that almost certainly contributed to the weakness in precious metals this spring was the enormous amount of capital being funneled into hot new tech IPOs, such as Elon Musk’s highly anticipated SpaceX offering, which raised a total of $85.7 billion and resulted in a staggering initial market capitalization of roughly $1.77 trillion, making Musk the world’s first trillionaire, at least on paper.

But as the tech hype has cooled recently, SpaceX stock has plunged from its peak of $225.64, falling below its $150 IPO price and now sitting at $123.99. That leaves every IPO buyer underwater and has wiped out over $1 trillion in market capitalization, a stark reminder of the risks of chasing hyped-up speculative tech stocks with little to no earnings.

Another heavily anticipated and hyped tech offering was South Korea’s SK Hynix semiconductor stock, which recently debuted for trading in the United States, raising $26.5 billion and becoming more than seven times oversubscribed, driving its U.S.-listed shares to trade at over a 50% premium compared to those in South Korea.

Again, this offering was another shiny object that diverted attention and capital away from precious metals, which were undergoing a routine correction after two very strong years. But now SK Hynix stock is sinking in both South Korea and the United States, punishing investors who bought into the hype.

Further confirmation that the semiconductor stock surge is indeed a mania can be seen in the extent to which South Korean and Taiwanese investors have been leveraging themselves to get in on the action—piling into highly leveraged ETFs, borrowing aggressively, even mortgaging homes—in a rush to participate in the frenzy.

But with AI stocks now plunging, more than 1.2 million leveraged retail accounts across the Korean market have received margin calls in the past week, with approximately 320,000 to 360,000 accounts fully liquidated by brokers—roughly one in every 30 working-age South Korean adults.

This AI stock mania is eerily reminiscent of the Roaring Twenties in the United States, which culminated in the 1929 crash, when investors borrowed heavily on margin to speculate.

There is a very real risk that South Korea and Taiwan will face a similarly painful unwind, and hopefully investors will finally wise up, turn away from this folly, and back toward sound money in gold and silver.

To conclude, precious metals continue to hold their key support levels and have received a lift over the past week from cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation reports, though rising energy prices remain a key risk and will play a major role in determining the trend from here.

I am continuing to monitor the triangle pattern in gold and waiting for a breakout, with my hope being that sellers have become exhausted and that the unwinding of the AI stock mania leads investors to revisit precious metals as they redeploy capital away from the fading tech hype.

As a reminder, I firmly believe that precious metals and mining stocks are in the early stages of a long-term secular bull market that began in early 2024, and that the correction since late January is just that—a healthy pullback after two strong bullish years. I believe the upward trend will soon resume toward much higher levels, with gold surpassing $15,000 an ounce and silver reaching at least $300.

To reinforce my view that the precious metals bull market remains very much intact despite the 2026 correction, I have several major reports coming up that you won’t want to miss—so stay tuned, and I’ll continue to keep you updated on what I’m seeing.

Disclaimer: the information provided in The Bubble Bubble Report and related content is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, financial, or trading advice. Nothing in this publication constitutes a recommendation, solicitation, or offer to buy or sell any securities, commodities, or financial instruments.

All investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher disclaim any liability for financial losses or damages incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.